WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment exercise

  1. [Fall risk assessment in regular exercising elderly women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Reiko; Kozaki, Koichi; Kawashima, Yumiko; Iwata, Akiko; Hasegawa, Hiroshi; Igata, Akihiro; Toba, Kenji

    2008-09-01

    Fall prevention is important for elderly people to maintain their functional independence. We made a longitudinal fall-risk assessment using our "Fall-predicting score" of women who are 60 years or older and who exercised regularly. We sent "fall-predicting questionnaires" to 632 elderly women aged 60 years or older (mean 65.0+/-4.3), members of "Miishima gymnastics program", and asked about their fall history of falling in the past year in 2004 and 2005. We performed a logistic regression analysis to determine the future risk factor of falling in 2005. The number of people who fell was 134 (21.2%) in 2004 and 121 (19.1%) in 2005. The number of people who fell decreased in the seventh decade, but increased in the eighth decade, and members for 6-10 years showed most decreased fall rates. Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, falls in 2004, "tripping", "cannot squeeze a towel", and "walk steep slope around the house" were significant independent risk factors of "falls in 2005". Logistic regression analysis of non-fallers in 2004 showed that age and "tripping" were the significant independent risk factors of "falls in 2005", and the analysis of people who fell in 2004 showed that age, "tripping", "cannot squeeze a towel", "walk steep slope around the house", and "taking more than 5 medicines" were significant independent risk factors for falls in 2005. In regular exercising elderly women, exercise appears to prevent falls in people in the seventh decade and in the members of 6-10 years. Age, past history of falls, and fall-predicting questionnaire were important risk predictors of future falls.

  2. Radiation protection standards: A practical exercise in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Roger H [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    Within 12 months of the discovery of x-rays in 1895, it was reported that large doses of radiation were harmful to living human tissues. The first radiation protection standards were set to avoid the early effects of acute irradiation. By the 1950s, evidence was mounting for late somatic effects - mainly a small excess of cancers - in irradiated populations. In the late 1980's, sufficient human epidemiological data had been accumulated to allow a comprehensive assessment of carcinogenic radiation risks following the delivery of moderately high doses. Workers and the public are exposed to lower doses and dose-rates than the groups from whom good data are available so that risks have had to be estimated for protection purposes. However, in the 1990s, some confirmation of these risk factors has been derived occupationally exposed populations. If an estimate is made of the risk per unit dose, then in order to set dose limits, an unacceptable level of risk must be established for both workers and the public. There has been and continues to be a debate about the definitions of 'acceptable' and 'tolerable' and the attributing of numerical values to these definitions. This paper discusses the issues involved in the quantification of these terms and their application to setting dose limits on risk grounds. Conclusions are drawn about the present protection standards and the application of the methods to other fields of risk assessment. (author)

  3. Radiation protection standards: A practical exercise in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, Roger H.

    1992-01-01

    Within 12 months of the discovery of x-rays in 1895, it was reported that large doses of radiation were harmful to living human tissues. The first radiation protection standards were set to avoid the early effects of acute irradiation. By the 1950s, evidence was mounting for late somatic effects - mainly a small excess of cancers - in irradiated populations. In the late 1980's, sufficient human epidemiological data had been accumulated to allow a comprehensive assessment of carcinogenic radiation risks following the delivery of moderately high doses. Workers and the public are exposed to lower doses and dose-rates than the groups from whom good data are available so that risks have had to be estimated for protection purposes. However, in the 1990s, some confirmation of these risk factors has been derived occupationally exposed populations. If an estimate is made of the risk per unit dose, then in order to set dose limits, an unacceptable level of risk must be established for both workers and the public. There has been and continues to be a debate about the definitions of 'acceptable' and 'tolerable' and the attributing of numerical values to these definitions. This paper discusses the issues involved in the quantification of these terms and their application to setting dose limits on risk grounds. Conclusions are drawn about the present protection standards and the application of the methods to other fields of risk assessment. (author)

  4. A pilot exercise on comparative risk assessment in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cebrian, M.E.; Albores, A.; Sierra, A. [and others

    1996-12-31

    Concern in the Mexican government and academic institutions about human health problems derived from exposure to environmental contaminants has been increasing. This interest prompted us to perform a pilot study to identify and rank potentially problematic environmental situations. We were given access to files from the Instituto Nacional de Ecologia. We screened about 2,500 documents and selected about 200 reports for further analysis. We adapted methodologies developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1993) and ATSDR (1992) to analyze environmental data. San Luis Potosi City and Region Lagunera were the areas posing greater risks. We chose San Luis Potosi City to perform a more detailed study, since here a smelting complex is located within an urban zone. The high levels of As, Pb, and Cd in environmental media resulted in a higher body burden in exposed children than children living 7 km away. Multiple regression analysis suggested that alterations in sensorial nerve transmission were mainly related to As in urine (AsU), whereas those in motor nerves were mainly related to Pb in blood (PbB). No apparent relationships associated with CdU were found. Slower auditory nerve conduction was associated with both AsU and PbB. These findings suggest that exposed children are also at high risk of suffering other adverse health effects. This exercise illustrates the need to perform studies aimed at identifying and ranking environmental contamination problems in industrializing countries. 5 refs., 1 tab.

  5. Additional prognostic value of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography for coronary risk assessment in primary prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cournot, Maxime; Taraszkiewicz, Dorota; Cambou, Jean-Pierre; Galinier, Michel; Boccalon, Henri; Hanaire-Broutin, Hélène; Chamontin, Bernard; Carrié, Didier; Ferrières, Jean

    2009-11-01

    The choice of noninvasive tests used in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases must be based on medical evidence. The aim of this study was to assess the additional prognostic value, over conventional risk factors, of physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography, in predicting a first coronary event. A prospective cohort study was conducted between 1996 and 2004 (n = 2,709), with follow-up in 2006 (response rate 96.6%). Participants had no history or symptoms of cardiovascular disease and had a standardized physical examination, a cardiac exercise testing, and carotid and femoral ultrasonography at baseline. Incident cases of definite coronary events were recorded during follow-up. Over the Framingham risk score, femoral bruit, positive exercise test, intima-media thickness >0.63 mm, and a femoral plaque provided significant additional information to the prediction model. The addition of the exercise test to the traditional risk factors, then the intima-media thickness and lastly the presence of femoral plaques, produces incremental increases in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.73-0.78, P = .02) and about a 50% increase in the positive predictive value (15.8%-31.4%), with no effect on the negative predictive value (96.4%-96.9%). Physical examination, exercise testing, and arterial ultrasonography provide incremental information on the risk of coronary event in asymptomatic adults. Exercise testing and femoral ultrasonography also improve the accuracy of the risk stratification.

  6. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  7. Assessment of the Cardiovascular Risk and Physical Activity of Individuals Exercising at a Public Park in the City of São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia L. M. Forjaz

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. METHODS: In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. RESULTS: In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. CONCLUSION: Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

  8. Exercise identity as a risk factor for exercise dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Aja L; McKenzie, Karen; Newman, Emily; Brown, Erin

    2013-05-01

    The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between exercise identity and exercise dependence. We hypothesized that stronger exercise identities would be associated with greater odds of experiencing exercise dependence symptoms. Logistic regression was used to assess the extent of association between exercise identity and the risk of experiencing exercise dependence symptoms. Participants (101) were recruited online via sports clubs and social networking sites and were asked to complete online measures of exercise identity and exercise dependence. The overall model fit was a significant improvement on the baseline model, but only the exercise beliefs factor was significantly associated with the odds of dependence symptoms, with higher scores on the belief scale predicting greater odds of experiencing dependence symptoms. Exercise role identity, in contrast, was not significantly associated with odds of experiencing dependence symptoms. Per cent correct classification was 55.9% for asymptomatic and 88.2% for symptomatic individuals and the overall per cent correct classification was 77.5%. The relation between identity and dependence could represent both a fruitful research avenue and a potential therapeutic target for those experiencing dependence symptoms; although our findings only showed a relationship between one of the two factors of the exercise identity measure and dependence. Longitudinal research is required to examine the relationship between identity and dependence in the context of other variables to better understand why some individuals become exercise dependent whereas others do not. What is already known on this subject? Exercise identity has been identified as an important determinant of exercise behaviour and studies within the exercise identity framework have proven elucidative with respect to the psychological processes that may underpin commitment to exercise. It has separately been established that some individuals may become

  9. The Research Assessment Exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee-Anne Broadhead

    1998-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article it is argued that the recent Research Assessment Exercise (RAE--undertaken by the United Kingdom's Higher Education Funding Councils (HEFC--is part of a much larger process of assessment in education generally. By taking the RAE as its focus, this article uses a Foucaultian analysis to amplify the nature and practice of disciplinary power in the setting of Higher Education. Foucault's notion of an "integrated system" of control and production, with its routine operation of surveillance and assessment--and its dependence on coercion and consent--is directly applied to the RAE. The impact on research and teaching is discussed. The critical response of academics to the exercise has failed to challenge the process in any fundamental way. it is argued here that this failure is a reflection of the degree to which disciplinary logic is embedded in the academic system.

  10. Is Exercise Stress Testing a Cost-Saving Strategy For Risk Assessment of Pediatric Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome Patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moltedo, Jose M.; Iyer, Ramesh V.; Forman, Howard; Fahey, John; Rosenthal, Geoffrey; Snyder, Christopher S.

    2006-01-01

    Background: In Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) patients the loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during exercise stress testing (EST) is a predictor of low risk of sudden death. The purpose of this study was to: 1) assess the frequency of loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during exercise testing, and 2) compare the cost of EST versus trans-catheter electrophysiology study (EPS) in the risk assessment of WPW patients. Methods: A retrospective review of 50 cases of patients with WPW who underwent EST was conducted including demographics, history of supraventricular tachycardia, associated congenital heart disease, maximum heart rate achieved, and loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat. Hospital costs of EST and EPS were compared. Results: Of the 50 patients who underwent EST, 4 (8%), lost pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during EST. No differences were found regarding gender, age at diagnosis or EST, history of supraventricular tachycardia, presence of congenital heart disease or maximal heart rate. A cost comparison, utilizing the cost data: EST ($62.75) and EPS ($5,597) found EST to be a cost-saving approach in WPW patients. With 4 patients losing pre-excitation during EST, the cost saving of EST was $22,388 for this population of WPW patients. Conclusions: A frequency of 8% loss of pre-excitation was found in a pediatric sample that underwent EST. Additionally, EST was shown to be a cost-saving strategy in risk assessment of pediatric WPW patients. PMID:21845141

  11. Utility of Exercise Testing and Adenosine Response for Risk Assessment in Children with Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergul, Yakup; Ozturk, Erkut; Ozyilmaz, Isa; Unsal, Serkan; Carus, Hayat; Tola, Hasan Tahsin; Tanidir, Ibrahim Cansaran; Guzeltas, Alper

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to determine the correlation between noninvasive testing (exercise stress testing [EST] and adenosine responsiveness of accessory pathway [AP] ) and invasive electrophysiology study (EPS) for assessment antegrade conduction of the AP in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. This prospective, observational study enrolled 40 children (58% male children, median age of 13 years, and median weight of 47.5 kg) with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Conduction through the AP to a cycle length of ≤250 ms was considered rapid or high-risk; otherwise, patients were nonrapid or low-risk. The sudden disappearance of the delta-wave was seen in 10 cases (25%) during EST. Accessory pathway was found to be high-risk in 13 cases (13/40, 32.5%) while the accessory path was identified as low-risk in 27 cases; however, six patients (15%) had blocked AP conduction with adenosine during EPS. Low-risk classification by EST alone to identify patients with nonrapid conduction in baseline EPS had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 90% (accuracy 54%). Blocked AP conduction with adenosine as a marker of nonrapid baseline AP conduction had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 84%. Finally, AP was adenosine nonresponsive in the majority of patients (28/30, 93%) with persistent delta-waves, 40% of those who had a sudden disappearance of delta-waves had an adenosine-responsive AP (P value: .028). Abrupt loss of preexcitation during EST and blocked AP conduction with adenosine had high specificity and positive predictive value for nonrapid and low-risk antegrade conduction during baseline invasive EPS. Successful risk stratification of pediatric patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White is possible through the use of EST and the adenosine responsiveness of AP. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Performance assessment calculational exercises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.

    1990-01-01

    The Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises (PACE) are an ongoing effort coordinated by Yucca Mountain Project Office. The objectives of fiscal year 1990 work, termed PACE-90, as outlined in the Department of Energy Performance Assessment (PA) Implementation Plan were to develop PA capabilities among Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) participants by calculating performance of a Yucca Mountain (YM) repository under ''expected'' and also ''disturbed'' conditions, to identify critical elements and processes necessary to assess the performance of YM, and to perform sensitivity studies on key parameters. It was expected that the PACE problems would aid in development of conceptual models and eventual evaluation of site data. The PACE-90 participants calculated transport of a selected set of radionuclides through a portion of Yucca Mountain for a period of 100,000 years. Results include analyses of fluid-flow profiles, development of a source term for radionuclide release, and simulations of contaminant transport in the fluid-flow field. Later work included development of a problem definition for perturbations to the originally modeled conditions and for some parametric sensitivity studies. 3 refs

  13. Exercise in Pregnancy: First Trimester Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegaard, Hanne K.; Ersbøll, Anne S; Damm, Peter

    2016-01-01

    in the first trimester and the risk of miscarriage. A systematic review based on the EMBASE and PUBMED databases was conducted and 5 studies assessing the association between early pregnancy exercise and miscarriage were identified. Diverging findings were reported making no clear conclusion possible. New...

  14. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  15. Humanoid assessing rehabilitative exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonov, M; Delconte, G

    2015-01-01

    This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "New Methodologies for Patients Rehabilitation". The article presents the approach in which the rehabilitative exercise prepared by healthcare professional is encoded as formal knowledge and used by humanoid robot to assist patients without involving other care actors. The main objective is the use of humanoids in rehabilitative care. An example is pulmonary rehabilitation in COPD patients. Another goal is the automated judgment functionality to determine how the rehabilitation exercise matches the pre-programmed correct sequence. We use the Aldebaran Robotics' NAO humanoid to set up artificial cognitive application. Pre-programmed NAO induces elderly patient to undertake humanoid-driven rehabilitation exercise, but needs to evaluate the human actions against the correct template. Patient is observed using NAO's eyes. We use the Microsoft Kinect SDK to extract motion path from the humanoid's recorded video. We compare human- and humanoid-operated process sequences by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and test the prototype. This artificial cognitive software showcases the use of DTW algorithm to enable humanoids to judge in near real-time about the correctness of rehabilitative exercises performed by patients following the robot's indications. One could enable better sustainable rehabilitative care services in remote residential settings by combining intelligent applications piloting humanoids with the DTW pattern matching algorithm applied at run time to compare humanoid- and human-operated process sequences. In turn, it will lower the need of human care.

  16. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  17. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  18. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  19. Exercise for falls prevention in older people: assessing the knowledge of exercise science students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturnieks, Daina L; Finch, Caroline F; Close, Jacqueline C T; Tiedemann, Anne; Lord, Stephen R; Pascoe, Deborah A

    2010-01-01

    Participation in appropriate exercise can help reduce the risk of falls and falls injury in older people. Delivery of population-level exercise interventions requires an expert workforce with skills in development and delivery of group exercise programs and prescription of individually targeted exercise. This study assessed the current knowledge of university exercise science students (as future exercise professionals) across different levels of study. A structured survey designed to assess knowledge in relation to falls in older people and exercise prescription for falls prevention was administered during second, third and fourth year lectures in seven Australian universities. Students' knowledge was assessed as the percent of correct responses. Overall, 566 students completed the survey and knowledge levels increased significantly with study year. Mean knowledge levels were significantly knowledge. They were lowest for falls risk factor questions and highest for issue/cost related questions in second and third year students. Fourth year students had best knowledge about falls interventions and this was the only group and topic with a mean score >70%. In conclusion, knowledge about falls and exercise prescription for falls prevention in current students does not meet a desired competency level of 70% and is therefore insufficient to ensure an adequately equipped future workforce in this area. There is a clear need for the development and widespread delivery of an evidence-based "exercise for falls prevention" curriculum module for exercise professionals. Copyright (c) 2009 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Consultative exercise on dose assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, B A; Parker, T; Simmonds, J R; Sumner, D

    2001-06-01

    A summary is given of a meeting held at Sussex University, UK, in October 2000, which allowed the exchange of ideas on methods of assessment of dose to the public arising from potential authorised radioactive discharges from nuclear sites in the UK. Representatives of groups with an interest in dose assessments were invited, and hence the meeting was called the Consultative Exercise on Dose Assessments (CEDA). Although initiated and funded by the Food Standards Agency, its organisation, and the writing of the report, were overseen by an independent Chairman and Steering Group. The report contains recommendations for improvement in co-ordination between different agencies involved in assessments, on method development and on the presentation of data on assessments. These have been prepared by the Steering Group, and will be taken forward by the Food Standards Agency and other agencies in the UK. The recommendations are included in this memorandum.

  1. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  2. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  3. Network Analysis to Risk Stratify Patients With Exercise Intolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldham, William M; Oliveira, Rudolf K F; Wang, Rui-Sheng; Opotowsky, Alexander R; Rubins, David M; Hainer, Jon; Wertheim, Bradley M; Alba, George A; Choudhary, Gaurav; Tornyos, Adrienn; MacRae, Calum A; Loscalzo, Joseph; Leopold, Jane A; Waxman, Aaron B; Olschewski, Horst; Kovacs, Gabor; Systrom, David M; Maron, Bradley A

    2018-03-16

    Current methods assessing clinical risk because of exercise intolerance in patients with cardiopulmonary disease rely on a small subset of traditional variables. Alternative strategies incorporating the spectrum of factors underlying prognosis in at-risk patients may be useful clinically, but are lacking. Use unbiased analyses to identify variables that correspond to clinical risk in patients with exercise intolerance. Data from 738 consecutive patients referred for invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing at a single center (2011-2015) were analyzed retrospectively (derivation cohort). A correlation network of invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters was assembled using |r|>0.5. From an exercise network of 39 variables (ie, nodes) and 98 correlations (ie, edges) corresponding to P 5e -46 for each correlation, we focused on a subnetwork containing peak volume of oxygen consumption (pVo 2 ) and 9 linked nodes. K-mean clustering based on these 10 variables identified 4 novel patient clusters characterized by significant differences in 44 of 45 exercise measurements ( P model, including 23 independent predictors of pVo 2 and pVo 2 itself, the network model was less redundant and identified clusters that were more distinct. Cluster assignment from the network model was predictive of subsequent clinical events. For example, a 4.3-fold ( P <0.0001; 95% CI, 2.2-8.1) and 2.8-fold ( P =0.0018; 95% CI, 1.5-5.2) increase in hazard for age- and pVo 2 -adjusted all-cause 3-year hospitalization, respectively, were observed between the highest versus lowest risk clusters. Using these data, we developed the first risk-stratification calculator for patients with exercise intolerance. When applying the risk calculator to patients in 2 independent invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing cohorts (Boston and Graz, Austria), we observed a clinical risk profile that paralleled the derivation cohort. Network analyses were used to identify novel exercise groups and develop a

  4. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  5. Compulsive exercise: links, risks and challenges faced

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lichtenstein MB

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Mia Beck Lichtenstein,1 Cecilie Juul Hinze,2 Bolette Emborg,3 Freja Thomsen,2 Simone Daugaard Hemmingsen4 1Department of Psychology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, 2Research Unit for Telepsychiatry and E-mental Health, Mental Health Services in the Region of Southern Denmark, Odense, 3Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, 4Research Unit, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Mental Health Services in the Region of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Abstract: Compulsive exercise is a condition described since 1970s. It is characterized by a craving for physical training, resulting in uncontrollable excessive exercise behavior with harmful consequences, such as injuries and impaired social relations. It has not been accepted as a mental disorder in either International Classification of Diseases or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. The aim of this literature review was to critically examine the research on links (comorbidity, risks (negative consequences, and challenges faced (problems in a treatment context. This review found that compulsive exercise is associated with eating disorder pathology, perfectionism, neuroticism, narcissism, and obsessive compulsive traits. The most prominent negative consequences were injuries, social impairment, and depression, but more research is needed to uncover the potential dysfunction resulting from compulsive exercise. As the condition is not recognized as a psychiatric disorder, studies on treatment interventions are sparse. Problems with compliance have been reported; therefore, motivational interviewing has been proposed as a treatment approach, in combination with cognitive behavioral therapy. This review summarizes and discusses findings on links/comorbidity, risks/negative consequences, and treatment challenges. We suggest that future studies should pay attention to both prevention and counseling in sports settings, where compulsive exercise

  6. [Assessment of control of cardiovascular risk factors in obese posmenopausal women after monitoring a structured dietary education and exercise program. (SÍSIFO Program)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Soto, Z M; Montoro García, S; Leal Hernández, M; Abellán Alemán, J

    2016-01-01

    Evaluate the influence of a specific program of physical exercise on cardiovascular risk, quality of life and eating habits of menopausal women. Prospective, intervention study previous-after without control group for three months. 66 menopausal women were included. The intervention consisted of a structured diet and exercise program. Biochemical, anthropometric, dietary and life quality parameters were determined before and three months after surgery. After the intervention a decrease in weight (4.4±2,3kg) and BMI (1.83±0.84kg/m(2)) (p<.05) occurs. A decrease in SBP (p<.05) was also observed. The fasting glucose went down 13.75±11.11mg/dl and HbA1c fell by 0.19±0,12%, both with p<.05. The lipid profile follows a similar behavior, highlighting a decline of 8± 6.2mg/dl in LDL cholesterol values (p<.05). The score on the measured cardiovascular risk by the Framingham tables decreases by 3% postoperatively (p<.05). Regarding the quality of life, it is significantly improved in all analyzed areas. The application of a structured exercise and diet program improves close monitoring parameters associated with cardiovascular risk of the women studied. It also improves the quality of life and dietary habits. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Improvements in fitness are not obligatory for exercise training-induced improvements in CV risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, Yvonne A.W.; Hopman, Maria T.E.; Schreuder, Tim H.; Verheggen, Rebecca J.H.M.; Scholten, Ralph R.; Oudegeest-Sander, Madelijn H.; Poelkens, Fleur; Maiorana, Andrew J.; Naylor, Louise H.; Willems, Peter H.; Tack, Cees J.; Thijssen, Dick H.J.; Green, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in physical fitness relate to changes in cardiovascular risk factors following standardized, center-based and supervised exercise training programs in subjects with increased cardiovascular risk. We pooled data from exercise training studies of

  8. Long-term exercise adherence after public health training in at-risk adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riktrup Hansen Saida, Trine Gro; Juul Sørensen, Tina; Langberg, Henning

    2017-01-01

    and self-rated health. Predictors of long-term exercise adherence were assessed by logistic regression, estimating crude odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and adjusting for age, gender, education, smoking, moderate and vigorous exercise. Results: In total, 214 adults (mean age 58......Objectives: Sustainment of healthy exercise behavior is essential in preventing cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Few studies have explored long-term exercise adherence after an exercise referral scheme. The objective of this study was to examine 12-month exercise adherence after an exercise...... intervention program. Methods: This was a pragmatic follow-up study in at-risk people performed between June 2012 and January 2014. The main outcome measure was self-reported single-item exercise adherence. Secondary outcomes were change in exercise level, quality of life rated on a visual analog scale...

  9. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  10. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  11. MODELS OF MAJOR ADVERSE CARDIAC EVENT RISK USING RESULTS OF EXERCISE STRESS ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY WITH NONINVASIVE CORONARY ARTERY FLOW ASSESSMENT IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Zagatina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ultrasound non-invasive coronary artery imaging contributes to the diagnosis of ischemic heart disease (IHD in clinical practice. However, data of the prognostic value obtained from a complex analysis of contractility disorders and coronary blood flow parameters during exercise tests in the world literature are still not available. Aim. To develop risk models for adverse outcomes in patients with probable or definite IHD based on the results of a stress test with a noninvasive coronary blood flow study. Material and methods. Medical data of 689 patients with probable or definite IHD who underwent stress echocardiography with satisfactory visualization of the anterior interventricular artery (AIVA were included in the analysis. All patients had stress echocardiography on a horizontal bicycle ergometer. Registration of coronary blood flow in the middle third of the AIVA was performed at rest and at the peak of the load with calculation of the coronary reserve value. Further patient follow-up lasted 3 years. Models of further negative outcomes were developed on the basis of the stress echocardiography results and of coronary blood flow parameters. Results. Three models that take into account the factors associated with further mortality, mortality/myocardial infarction and sum of negative outcomes were developed in the study. These models divide a cohort of patients with probable or definite IHD into groups of low, medium and very high risks. Factors associated with the risk of death include: age >56 years, load power <100 W, breach of contractility in the blood supply zone of the circumflex artery initially and during exercise, the difference in blood flow velocities in the AIVA<10 cm/s, coronary reserve of AIVA<2. The risk model of death, taking into account these factors, suggests dividing patients into low-risk group if there are ≤2 factors (mortality 0.6% for 3 years, medium risk – from 2 to 4 factors (mortality 1.8%, high risk – ≥5

  12. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  13. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  14. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  15. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  16. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  17. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  18. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  19. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  20. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  2. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  3. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  4. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  6. Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... decreased bone density with an increased risk of fracture, and shallow, inefficient breathing. An exercise program needs ... and-Soul (Feb. 2013 issue) (.pdf) Download Document Rehabilitation: Recommendations for Persons with MS (.pdf) Download Brochure ...

  7. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  8. Body mass index, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in male veterans with hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Kheirbek, Raya; Korshak, Lauren; Manolis, Athanasios; Pittaras, Andreas; Tsioufis, Costas; Papademetriou, Vasilios; Fletcher, Ross; Kokkinos, Peter

    2012-04-01

    Overweight and obesity are associated with increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality. Exercise capacity is inversely associated with mortality risk. However, little is known on the interaction between fitness, fatness, and mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. Thus, we assessed the interaction between exercise capacity, fatness, and all-cause mortality in hypertensive males. A graded exercise test was performed in 4,183 hypertensive veterans (mean age ± s.d.; 63.3 ± 10.5 years) at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC. We defined three body weight categories based on body mass index (BMI): normal weight (BMI 7.5 METs). During a median follow-up period of 7.2 years, there were 1,000 deaths. The association between exercise capacity and mortality risk was strong, inverse, and graded. For each 1-MET increase in exercise capacity the adjusted risk was 20% for normal weight, 12% for overweight, and 25% for obese (P exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive males regardless of BMI. The risk for overweight and obese but fit individuals was significantly lower when compared to normal weight but unfit. These findings suggest that in older hypertensive men, it may be healthier to be fit regardless of standard BMI category than unfit and normal weight.

  9. Endometrial cancer survivors' assessment of the benefits of exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukowski, Jessica; Gil, Karen M; Jenison, Eric; Hopkins, Michael; Basen-Engquist, Karen

    2012-03-01

    The majority of women who have had endometrial cancer remain at risk for obesity related diseases. The social cognitive theory was used to explore their beliefs about exercise to aid in the development of effective interventions. Women who had been treated for Stage I endometrial cancer were asked about their level of exercise to determine if they had been exercising regularly for more than 6 months (exercisers vs non-exercisers). They were asked to rate the likelihood that exercise would result in various health outcomes (expectations) and to rate the importance of these outcomes (expectancies). Scores for how likely exercise would result in an outcome of importance were calculated. Height and weight were obtained from nurses for calculation of BMI. Statistics were conducted using SPSS v 15. There were 106 valid questionnaires (86% participation rate); 41% were exercisers. Mean BMI was significantly lower in exercisers (31.6 ± 1.2 vs. 37.3 ± 1.2, p=0.001); a significantly greater proportion reported not having diabetes, heart disease or hypertension (69.8% vs. 49.2%, p=0.035). Exercisers were significantly more likely to report that feeling better physically and emotionally versus reducing the risk of diseases were likely and important outcomes of exercise (18.2 ± 0.8 vs 15.0 ± 1.0, p=0.002). Exercisers identified outcomes of exercise that are more immediate and subjective as being important and likely outcomes of exercise. Focusing on these aspects of exercise (feeling better physically and emotionally) may aid in the development of effective interventions for non-exercisers. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  11. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  12. A real-time internal dose assessment exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bingham, D.; Bull, R. K.

    2013-01-01

    A real-time internal dose assessment exercise has been conducted in which participants were required to make decisions about sampling requirements, seek relevant information about the 'incident' and make various interim dose assessments. At the end of the exercise, each participant was requested to make a formal assessment, providing statements of the methods, models and assumptions used in that assessment. In this paper we describe how the hypothetical assessment case was set up and the exercise was conducted, the responses of the participants and the assessments of dose that they made. Finally we discuss the lessons learnt from the exercise and suggest how the exercise may be adapted to a wider range of participants. (authors)

  13. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  14. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tullio Ricci

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

  15. Multiple Sclerosis: associated cardiometabolic risks and impact of exercise therapy

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Jasper

    2016-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by complex heterogeneous symptoms, which often leads to a more sedentary lifestyle. This lifestyle increases the likelihood to develop secondary health problems, like cardiometabolic risk (CMR) profile. However, in other population these secondary health problems can be, partly, reversed by exercise therapy. We hypothesized that MS affects the CMR profile, but the outcome can be reversed following exercise therapy. Persons with MS and matched healthy c...

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. Exercise frequency, health risk factors, and diseases of the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmler, Wolfgang; von Stengel, Simon

    2013-11-01

    To determine the effect of exercise frequency on various diseases and risk factors of the elderly. Retrospective analysis of a randomized controlled 18-month exercise trial. University ambulatory group setting. Community-dwelling women aged ≥65 years (N=162) in the area of Northern Bavaria. Mixed, intense aerobic, resistance, and balance protocol for 18 months. Subjects were retrospectively subdivided into 2 groups according to their effective attendance over 18 months (>1-exercise group (LF-EG) and the high-frequency exercise group (HF-EG) were observed for lumbar spine BMD (HF-EG, 2.4%±2.8% vs LF-EG, 0.3%±2.2%; Pexercise groups were observed for 10-year CHD risk (-1.94%±4.14% vs -2.00%±3.13%; P=.943) and number of falls (0.95±1.36 vs 1.03±1.21 falls/person). Comparing the LF-EG with the less active control group (n=47), only nonsignificant effects for fall number (P=.065) and 10-year CHD risk (P=.178) were evaluated. Although this result might not be generalizable across all exercise types and cohorts, it indicates that an overall exercise frequency of at least 2 sessions/wk may be crucial for impacting bone and muscle mass of elderly subjects. Copyright © 2013 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  19. Risks and Benefits of Exercise Training in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaix, Marie-A; Marcotte, François; Dore, Annie; Mongeon, François-Pierre; Mondésert, Blandine; Mercier, Lise-Andrée; Khairy, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Exercise capacity in adults with various forms of congenital heart disease is substantially lower than that of the general population. Although the underlying congenital heart defect, and its sequelae, certainly contribute to observed exercise limitations, there is evidence suggesting that deconditioning and a sedentary lifestyle are important implicated factors. The prevalence of acquired cardiovascular comorbidities is on the increase in the aging population with congenital heart disease, such that obesity and a sedentary lifestyle confer increased risk. Health fears and misconceptions are common barriers to regular physical activity in adults with congenital heart disease, despite evidence linking lower functional capacity to poor outcomes, and data supporting the safety and efficacy of exercise in bestowing numerous physical and psychosocial rewards. With few exceptions, adults with congenital heart disease should be counselled to exercise regularly. In this contemporary review, we provide a practical approach to assessing adults with congenital heart disease before exercise training. We examine available evidence supporting the safety and benefits of exercise training. Risks associated with exercise training in adults with congenital heart disease are discussed, particularly with regard to sudden cardiac death. Finally, recommendations for exercise training are provided, with consideration for the type of congenital heart disease, the nature (ie, static vs dynamic) and intensity (ie, low, medium, high) of the physical activity, and associated factors such as systemic ventricular dysfunction and residual defects. Further research is required to determine optimal exercise regimens and to identify effective strategies to implement exercise training as a key determinant of healthy living. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Vulnerability to exercise addiction, socio-demographic, behavioral and psychological characteristics of runners at risk for eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lodovico, Laura; Dubertret, Caroline; Ameller, Aurely

    2018-02-01

    Excessive exercise is frequently associated with eating disorders and may degenerate into exercise addiction. We still don't know whether runners at risk for eating disorders are at risk for exercise addiction. Our aim is to assess: 1) risk for exercise addiction in runners at risk for eating disorders and 2) socio-demographic, behavioral and psychological characteristics distinguishing runners at-risk from not-at-risk for eating disorders. We assessed risk for eating disorders and exercise addiction using the SCOFF questionnaire and the Exercise Addiction Inventory personality traits with the Big-Five Inventory Test, socio-demographic data, eating and training habits in a sample of 154 healthy runners. Twenty five subjects had a score of ≥2 at the SCOFF and were included in the group "at risk for eating disorders". In this group, we found a higher percentage of subjects at risk for exercise addiction (p=0.01) and higher average scores at the Exercise Addiction Inventory (p=0.01) than runners not at risk (N=136). Runners at risk were statistically younger (p=0.03), women (p=0.001), started running to lose weight more often (p=0.03), lost more kilos since affiliation in their running club (p=0.04), and were characterized by neurotic traits using the Big-Five-Inventory Test (p=3.10 -6 ). Screening for exercise addiction and mood disorders could lead to a more accurate management of runners at risk for eating disorders. Identifying vulnerable individuals will facilitate the prevention of eating disorders and preserve the benefits of sport practice. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  1. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  2. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  3. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  4. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  6. Predischarge maximal exercise test identifies risk for cardiac death in patients with acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J R; Mickley, H; Damsgaard, E M

    1990-01-01

    A maximal exercise test was performed in 54 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) before discharge and in 49 age-matched control subjects. The long-term prognosis was assessed after an average follow-up of 7.6 years in AMI patients and 5.8 years in control subjects. The maximal work...... capacity and systolic blood pressure increase in AMI patients was 59% that of control subjects (p less than 0.001). Seventeen AMI patients had significant ST-segment shifts, 13 with ST depression and 4 with ST elevation. In AMI patients experiencing a cardiac death during follow-up the maximal work...... were of no significant value. In this study maximal work capacity turned out to be the best single exercise variable for identifying groups of AMI patients with very low and relative high risk of cardiac death. When all 3 exercise variables were combined, the predischarge maximal exercise test...

  7. Fall risk-relevant functional mobility outcomes in dementia following dyadic tai chi exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Lan; Giordani, Bruno J; Algase, Donna L; You, Mei; Alexander, Neil B

    2013-03-01

    Whether persons with dementia benefit from fall prevention exercise is unclear. Applying the Positive Emotion-Motivated Tai Chi protocol, preliminary findings concerning adherence and effects of a dyadic Tai Chi exercise program on persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD) are reported. Using pre/posttest design, 22 community-dwelling AD-caregiver dyads participated in the program. Fall-risk-relevant functional mobility was measured using Unipedal Stance Time (UST) and Timed Up and Go (TUG) tests. Results showed that 19/22 (86.4%) AD patients completed the 16-week program and final assessment; 16/19 dyads (84.2%) completed the prescribed home program as reported by caregivers. UST adjusted mean improved from 4.0 to 5.1 (Week 4, p .05) post intervention. Retaining dementia patients in an exercise intervention remains challenging. The dyadic Tai Chi approach appears to succeed in keeping AD-caregiver dyads exercising and safe.

  8. Inadequate exercise as a risk factor for sepsis mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T

    2013-01-01

    Test whether inadequate exercise is related to sepsis mortality. Mortality surveillance of an epidemiological cohort of 155,484 National Walkers' and Runners' Health Study participants residing in the United States. Deaths were monitored for an average of 11.6-years using the National Death index through December 31, 2008. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to compare sepsis mortality (ICD-10 A40-41) to inadequate exercise (<1.07 METh/d run or walked) as measured on their baseline questionnaires. Deaths occurring within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Sepsis was the underlying cause in 54 deaths (sepsis(underlying)) and a contributing cause in 184 deaths (sepsis(contributing)), or 238 total sepsis-related deaths (sepsis(total)). Inadequate exercise was associated with 2.24-fold increased risk for sepsis(underlying) (95%CI: 1.21 to 4.07-fold, P = 0.01), 2.11-fold increased risk for sepsis(contributing) (95%CI: 1.51- to 2.92-fold, P<10(-4)), and 2.13-fold increased risk for sepsis(total) (95%CI: 1.59- to 2.84-fold, P<10(-6)) when adjusted for age, sex, race, and cohort. The risk increase did not differ significantly between runners and walkers, by sex, or by age. Sepsis(total) risk was greater in diabetics (P = 10(-5)), cancer survivors (P = 0.0001), and heart attack survivors (P = 0.003) and increased with waist circumference (P = 0.0004). The sepsis(total) risk associated with inadequate exercise persisted when further adjusted for diabetes, prior cancer, prior heart attack and waist circumference, and when excluding deaths with cancer, or cardiovascular, respiratory, or genitourinary disease as the underlying cause. Inadequate exercise also increased sepsis(total) risk in 2163 baseline diabetics (4.78-fold, 95%CI: 2.1- to 13.8-fold, P = 0.0001) when adjusted, which was significantly greater (P = 0.03) than the adjusted risk increase in non-diabetics (1.80-fold, 95%CI: 1.30- to 2.46-fold, P = 0

  9. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  10. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  11. Eating disorder risk, exercise dependence, and body weight dissatisfaction among female nutrition and exercise science university majors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Natalie; Gee, David; d'Acquisto, Debra; Ogan, Dana; Pritchett, Kelly

    2015-09-01

    Past research has examined eating disorder risk among college students majoring in Nutrition and has suggested an increased risk, while other studies contradict these results. Exercise Science majors, however, have yet to be fully examined regarding their risk for eating disorders and exercise dependence. Based on pressures to fit the image associated with careers related to these two disciplines, research is warranted to examine the potential risk for both eating disorder and exercise dependence. The purpose of this study is to compare eating disorder risk, exercise dependence, and body weight dissatisfaction (BWD) between Nutrition and Exercise Science majors, compared to students outside of these career pathways. Participants (n = 89) were divided into three groups based on major; Nutrition majors (NUTR; n = 31), Exercise Science majors (EXSC; n = 30), and other majors (CON; n = 28). Participants were given the EAT-26 questionnaire and the Exercise Dependence Scale. BWD was calculated as the discrepancy between actual BMI and ideal BMI. The majority of participants expressed a desire to weigh less (83%) and EXSC had significantly (p = .03) greater BWD than NUTR. However, there were no significant differences in eating disorder risk or exercise dependence among majors. This study suggested there was no significant difference in eating disorder risk or exercise dependence between the three groups (NUTR, EXSC, and CON).

  12. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  13. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  14. IAEA/IDEAS intercomparison exercise on internal dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerfel, H.; Andrasi, A.; Cruz-Suarez, R.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgen, C.; Marsh, J.; Zeger, J.

    2007-01-01

    An Internet based intercomparison exercise on assessment of occupational exposure due to intakes of radionuclides has been performed to check the applicability of the 'General Guidelines for the Assessment of Internal Dose from Monitoring Data' developed by the IDEAS group. There were six intake cases presented on the Internet and 81 participants worldwide reported solutions to these cases. Results of the exercise indicate that the guidelines have a positive influence on the methodologies applied for dose assessments and, if correctly applied, improve the harmonisation of assessed doses. (authors)

  15. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  16. NMR metabolomics for assessment of exercise effects with mouse biofluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Moyec, Laurence; Mille-Hamard, Laurence; Breuneval, Carole; Petot, Helene; Billat, Veronique L. [Universite Evry Val d' Essonne, UBIAE INSERM U902, Evry Cedex (France); Triba, Mohamed N. [Universite Paris 13, CSPBAT UMR 7244, Bobigny (France)

    2012-08-15

    Exercise modulates the metabolome in urine or blood as demonstrated previously for humans and animal models. Using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomics, the present study compares the metabolic consequences of an exhaustive exercise at peak velocity (Vp) and at critical velocity (Vc) on mice. Since small-volume samples (blood and urine) were collected, dilution was necessary to acquire NMR spectra. Consequently, specific processing methods were applied before statistical analysis. According to the type of exercise (control group, Vp group and Vc group), 26 male mice were divided into three groups. Mice were sacrificed 2 h after the end of exercise, and urine and blood samples were drawn from each mouse. Proton NMR spectra were acquired with urine and deproteinized blood. The NMR data were aligned with the icoshift method and normalised using the probabilistic quotient method. Finally, data were analysed with the orthogonal projection of latent-structure analysis. The spectra obtained with deproteinized blood can neither discriminate the control mice from exercised mice nor discriminate according to the duration of the exercise. With urine samples, a significant statistical model can be estimated when comparing the control mice to both groups, Vc and Vp. The best model is obtained according to the exercise duration with all mice. Taking into account the spectral regions having the highest correlations, the discriminant metabolites are allantoin, inosine and branched-chain amino acids. In conclusion, metabolomic profiles assessed with NMR are highly dependent on the exercise. These results show that urine samples are more informative than blood samples and that the duration of the exercise is a more important parameter to influence the metabolomic status than the exercise velocity. (orig.)

  17. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  18. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  19. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  20. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk-lowering health benefits accruing from laboratory-based, community-based and exercise-referral exercise programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R; Thompson, J E S; Ruffino, J-S; Davies, N A; Watkeys, L; Hooper, S; Jones, P M; Walters, G; Clayton, D; Thomas, A W; Morris, K; Llewellyn, D H; Ward, M; Wyatt-Williams, J; McDonnell, B J

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of community-based exercise programmes to facilitate public participation in exercise and hence improved cardiovascular health, we assessed the respective impacts of: a continuously monitored exercise programme based within our university (study 1); a Valleys Regional Park-facilitated community-based outdoor exercise programme (study 2); a Wales National Exercise Referral Scheme-delivered exercise-referral programme (study 3). Biomolecular (monocytic PPARγ target gene expression), vascular haemodynamic (central/peripheral blood pressure, arterial stiffness), clinical (insulin sensitivity, blood lipids) and anthropometric (body mass index, waist circumference, heart rate) parameters were investigated using RT-PCR, applanation tonometry, chemical analysis and standard anthropometric techniques. In studies 1-3, 22/28, 32/65 and 11/14 participants adhered to their respective exercise programmes, and underwent significant increases in physical activity levels. Importantly, beneficial effects similar to those seen in our previous studies (eg, modulations in expression of monocytic PPARγ target genes, decreases in blood pressure/arterial stiffness, improvements in blood lipids/insulin sensitivity) were observed (albeit to slightly differing extents) only in participants who adhered to their respective exercise programmes. While study 1 achieved more intense exercise and more pronounced beneficial effects, significant cardiovascular risk-lowering health benefits related to biomolecular markers, blood pressure, arterial stiffness and blood lipids were achieved via community/referral-based delivery modes in studies 2 and 3. Because cardiovascular health benefits were observed in all 3 studies, we conclude that the majority of benefits previously reported in laboratory-based studies can also be achieved in community-based/exercise-referral settings. These findings may be of use in guiding policymakers with regard to introduction and/or continued

  1. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  2. Aerobic exercise reduces biomarkers related to cardiovascular risk among cleaners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korshøj, Mette; Ravn, Marie Højbjerg; Holtermann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Blue-collar workers have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, elevated levels of biomarkers related to risk of cardiovascular disease, such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein, have been observed among blue-collar workers. The objective was to examine whether...... an aerobic exercise worksite intervention changes the level of inflammation biomarkers among cleaners. METHODS: The design was a cluster-randomized controlled trial with 4-month worksite intervention. Before the 116 cleaners aged 18-65 years were randomized, they signed an informed consent form...

  3. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  4. Assessing cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure to predict incident hypertension in a general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorbeer, Roberto; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Gläser, Sven; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Dörr, Marcus

    2015-07-01

    Cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure (BP) are not established in hypertension guidelines. The aim of the study was to assess optimal cutoff values for increased exercise BP to predict incident hypertension. Data of 661 normotensive participants (386 women) aged 25-77 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-1) with a 5-year follow-up were used. Exercise BP was measured at a submaximal level of 100 W and at maximum level of a symptom-limited cycle ergometry test. Cutoff values for increased exercise BP were defined at the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of incident hypertension. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated to investigate whether increased exercise BP adds predictive value for incident hypertension beyond established cardiovascular risk factors. In men, values of 160  mmHg (100  W level; AUC = 0.7837; NRI = 0.534, P AUC = 0.7677; NRI = 0.340, P = 0.003) were detected as optimal cutoff values for the definition of increased exercise SBP. A value of 190  mmHg (AUC = 0.8347; NRI = 0.519, P < 0.001) showed relevance for the definition of increased exercise SBP in women at the maximum level. According to our analyses, 190 and 210  mmHg are clinically relevant cutoff values for increased exercise SBP at the maximum exercise level of cycle ergometry test for women and men, respectively. In addition, for men, our analyses provided a cutoff value of 160  mmHg for increased exercise SBP at the 100  W level.

  5. Wearable Sensor-Based Rehabilitation Exercise Assessment for Knee Osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun-Hui Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the knee joint bears the full weight load of the human body and the highest pressure loads while providing flexible movement, it is the body part most vulnerable and susceptible to osteoarthritis. In exercise therapy, the early rehabilitation stages last for approximately six weeks, during which the patient works with the physical therapist several times each week. The patient is afterwards given instructions for continuing rehabilitation exercise by him/herself at home. This study develops a rehabilitation exercise assessment mechanism using three wearable sensors mounted on the chest, thigh and shank of the working leg in order to enable the patients with knee osteoarthritis to manage their own rehabilitation progress. In this work, time-domain, frequency-domain features and angle information of the motion sensor signals are used to classify the exercise type and identify whether their postures are proper or not. Three types of rehabilitation exercise commonly prescribed to knee osteoarthritis patients are: Short-Arc Exercise, Straight Leg Raise, and Quadriceps Strengthening Mini-squats. After ten subjects performed the three kinds of rehabilitation activities, three validation techniques including 10-fold cross-validation, within subject cross validation, and leave-one-subject cross validation are utilized to confirm the proposed mechanism. The overall recognition accuracy for exercise type classification is 97.29% and for exercise posture identification it is 88.26%. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed mechanism which can help patients perform rehabilitation movements and progress effectively. Moreover, the proposed mechanism is able to detect multiple errors at once, fulfilling the requirements for rehabilitation assessment.

  6. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  7. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  8. Health Risk Perceptions and Exercise in Older Adulthood: An Application of Protection Motivation Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruthig, Joelle C

    2016-09-01

    Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) was applied to explore the relationship between perceived risk of acute health crises and intent to exercise. Interviews of 351 community-living older adults assessed prior physical activity (PPA), all PMT components, and exercise intent. A multi-group structural equation model revealed gender differences in PMT predictors of exercise intent. PPA, age, self-efficacy, and response efficacy directly predicted men's intent. Women's PPA and age predicted PMT components of self-efficacy and response costs, which predicted intent. Findings have implications for devising interventions to enhance physical activity in later life by targeting different PMT components for older men and women. © The Author(s) 2014.

  9. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  10. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  11. Incorporating performance improvement methods into a needs assessment: experience with a nutrition and exercise curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluker, Shelly-Ann; Whalen, Ursula; Schneider, Jason; Cantey, Paul; Bussey-Jones, Jada; Brady, Donald; Doyle, Joyce P

    2010-09-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend that physicians counsel patients on diet and exercise; however, physician counseling remains suboptimal. To determine if incorporating performance improvement (PI) methodologies into a needs assessment for an internal medicine (IM) residency curriculum on nutrition and exercise counseling was feasible and enhanced our understanding of the curricular needs. One hundred and fifty-eight IM residents completed a questionnaire to assess their knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about nutrition and exercise counseling for hypertensive patients. Residents' baseline nutrition and exercise counseling rates were also obtained using chart abstraction. Fishbone diagrams were created by the residents to delineate perceived barriers to diet and exercise counseling. The KAP questionnaire was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Chart abstraction data was plotted on run charts and average counseling rates were calculated. Pareto charts were developed from the fishbone diagrams depicting the number of times each barrier was reported. Almost 90% of the residents reported counseling their hypertensive patients about diet and exercise more than 20% of the time on the KAP questionnaire. In contrast, chart abstraction revealed average counseling rates of 3% and 4% for nutrition and exercise, respectively. The KAP questionnaire exposed a clinical knowledge deficit, lack of familiarity with the national guidelines, and low self-efficacy. In contrast, the fishbone analysis highlighted patient apathy, patient co-morbidities, and time pressure as the major perceived barriers. We found that incorporating PI methods into a needs assessment for an IM residency curriculum on nutrition and exercise counseling for patients at risk of cardiovascular disease was feasible, provided additional information not obtained through other means, and provided the opportunity to pilot the use of PI techniques as an educational strategy and means of measuring outcomes. Our

  12. Low bone density risk is higher in exercising women with multiple triad risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Jenna C; Nattiv, Aurelia; Barrack, Michelle T; Williams, Nancy I; Rauh, Mitchell J; Nichols, Jeanne F; De Souza, Mary Jane

    2014-01-01

    The cumulative effect of the female athlete triad (Triad) risk factors on the likelihood of low bone mineral density (BMD) in exercising women is unclear. This study aimed to determine the risk of low BMD in exercising women with multiple Triad risk factors. We retrospectively examined cross-sectional data from 437 exercising women (mean ± SD age of 18.0 ± 3.5 yr, weighed 57.5 ± 7.1 kg with 24.5% ± 6.1% body fat) obtained at baseline from 4 prospective cohort studies examining Triad risk factors. Questionnaires were completed to obtain information on demographic characteristics, self-reported eating attitudes/behaviors, menstrual function, sport/activity participation, and medication use. Height and body weight were measured. BMD was measured using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Low BMD was defined as z-scores of exercising women. Further research should be conducted to develop a user-friendly algorithm integrating these indicators of risk for low BMD in exercising women (particularly factors associated with low BMI/body weight, menstrual dysfunction, lean sport/activity participation, and elevated dietary restraint).

  13. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  15. Effects of a multimodal exercise program on balance, functional mobility and fall risk in older adults with cognitive impairment: a randomized controlled single-blind study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, E; Sztruhár Jónásné, I; Karóczi, C K; Korpos, A; Gondos, T

    2013-10-01

    Exercise programs have important role in prevention of falls, but to date, there are conflicting findings about the effects of exercise programs on balance, functional performance and fall risk among cognitively impaired older adults. AIM. To investigate the effects of a multimodal exercise program on static and dynamic balance, and risk of falls in older adults with mild or moderate cognitive impairment. A randomized controlled study. A long-term care institute. Cognitively impaired individuals aged over 60 years. Eighty-six participants were randomized to an exercise group providing multimodal exercise program for 12 months or a control group which did not participate in any exercise program. The Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment scale, Timed Up and Go test, and incidence of falls were measured at baseline, at 6 months and at 12 months. There was a significant improvement in balance-related items of Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment scale in the exercise group both at 6 month and 12 month (Pfalls. Our results confirmed that a 12-month multimodal exercise program can improve the balance in cognitively impaired older adults. Based on our results, the multimodal exercise program may be a promising fall prevention exercise program for older adults with mild or moderate cognitive impairment improving static balance but it is supposed that more emphasis should be put on walking component of exercise program and environmental fall risk assessment.

  16. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  18. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  19. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  20. Muscle blood volume assessment during exercise with Power Doppler Ultrasound

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heres, H.M.; Tchang, B.C.Y.; Schoots, T.; Rutten, M.C.M.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Lopata, R.G.P.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of perfusion adaptation in muscle during exercise can provide diagnostic information on cardiac and endothelial diseases. Power Doppler Ultrasound (PDUS) is known for its feasibility in the non-invasive measurement of moving blood volume (MBV), a perfusion related parameter. In this

  1. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  2. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  3. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  4. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  5. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  6. Improvements in fitness are not obligatory for exercise training-induced improvements in CV risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Yvonne A W; Hopman, Maria T E; Schreuder, Tim H; Verheggen, Rebecca J H M; Scholten, Ralph R; Oudegeest-Sander, Madelijn H; Poelkens, Fleur; Maiorana, Andrew J; Naylor, Louise H; Willems, Peter H; Tack, Cees J; Thijssen, Dick H J; Green, Daniel J

    2018-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess whether changes in physical fitness relate to changes in cardiovascular risk factors following standardized, center-based and supervised exercise training programs in subjects with increased cardiovascular risk. We pooled data from exercise training studies of subjects with increased cardiovascular risk (n = 166) who underwent 8-52 weeks endurance training. We determined fitness (i.e., peak oxygen uptake) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), before and after training. We divided subjects into quartiles based on improvement in fitness, and examined whether these groups differed in terms of risk factors. Associations between changes in fitness and in cardiovascular risk factors were further tested using Pearson correlations. Significant heterogeneity was apparent in the improvement of fitness and individual risk factors, with nonresponder rates of 17% for fitness, 44% for body mass index, 33% for mean arterial pressure, 49% for total cholesterol, and 49% for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Neither the number, nor the magnitude, of change in cardiovascular risk factors differed significantly between quartiles of fitness change. Changes in fitness were not correlated with changes in cardiovascular risk factors (all P > 0.05). Our data suggest that significant heterogeneity exists in changes in peak oxygen uptake after training, while improvement in fitness did not relate to improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. In subjects with increased cardiovascular risk, improvements in fitness are not obligatory for training-induced improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. © 2018 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and the American Physiological Society.

  7. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  8. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  12. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  13. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  14. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  15. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  16. Mathematical finance theory review and exercises from binomial model to risk measures

    CERN Document Server

    Gianin, Emanuela Rosazza

    2013-01-01

    The book collects over 120 exercises on different subjects of Mathematical Finance, including Option Pricing, Risk Theory, and Interest Rate Models. Many of the exercises are solved, while others are only proposed. Every chapter contains an introductory section illustrating the main theoretical results necessary to solve the exercises. The book is intended as an exercise textbook to accompany graduate courses in mathematical finance offered at many universities as part of degree programs in Applied and Industrial Mathematics, Mathematical Engineering, and Quantitative Finance.

  17. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  18. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  19. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  20. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  3. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  4. Primary Care Fall Risk Assessment for Elderly West Virginians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkemeyer, Vivian M; Meriweather, Matt; Shuler, Franklin D; Mehta, Saurabh P; Qazi, Zain N

    2015-01-01

    West Virginia is ranked second nationally for the percent of its population 65 years of age. The elderly are especially susceptible to falls with fall risk increasing as age increases. Because falls are the number one cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in the West Virginia elderly, evaluation of fall risk is a critical component of the patient evaluation in the primary care setting. We therefore highlight fall risk assessments that require no specialized equipment or training and can easily be completed at an established office visit. High quality clinical practice guidelines supported by the American Geriatric Society recommend yearly fall risk evaluation in the elderly. Those seniors at greatest risk of falls will benefit from the standardized therapy protocols outlined and referral to a balance treatment center. Patients with low-to-moderate fall risk attributed to muscle weakness or fatigue should be prescribed lower extremity strengthening exercises, such as kitchen counter exercises, to improve strength and balance.

  5. Exercise Equipment Usability Assessment for a Deep Space Concept Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Brooke M.; Reynolds, David W.

    2015-01-01

    With international aspirations to send astronauts to deep space, the world is now faced with the complex problem of keeping astronauts healthy in unexplored hostile environments for durations of time never before attempted by humans. The great physical demands imparted by space exploration compound the problem of astronaut health, as the astronauts must not only be healthy, but physically fit upon destination arrival in order to perform the scientific tasks required of them. Additionally, future deep space exploration necessitates the development of environments conducive to long-duration habitation that would supplement propulsive vehicles. Space Launch System (SLS) core stage barrel sections present large volumes of robust structure that can be recycled and used for long duration habitation. This assessment will focus on one such conceptual craft, referred to as the SLS Derived Habitat (SLS-DH). Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) has formulated a high-level layout of this SLS-DH with parameters such as floor number and orientation, floor designations, grid dimensions, wall placement, etc. Yet to be determined, however, is the layout of the exercise area. Currently the SLS-DH features three floors laid out longitudinally, leaving 2m of height between the floor and ceilings. This short distance between levels introduces challenges for proper placement of exercise equipment such as treadmills and stationary bicycles, as the dynamic envelope for the 95th percentile male astronauts is greater than 2m. This study aims to assess the optimal equipment layout and sizing for the exercise area of this habitat. Figure 1 illustrates the layout of the DSH concept demonstrator located at MSFC. The exercise area is located on the lower level, seen here as the front half of the level occupied by a crew member. This small volume does not allow for numerous or bulky exercise machines, so the conceptual equipment has been limited to a treadmill and

  6. Effects of smoking and aerobic exercise on male college students' metabolic syndrome risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jee-Youn; Yang, Yuhao; Sim, Young-Je

    2018-04-01

    [Purpose] The aim was to investigate the effects of university students' smoking and aerobic exercise on metabolic syndrome risk factors. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-three male students were randomly assigned to the following groups: exercise smoker (n=6), non-exercise smoker (n=6), exercise non-smoker (n=6), and non-exercise non-smoker (n=5). A basketball exercise program was conducted three times per week (70 minutes per session) for 8 weeks with exercise intensity set at 50-80% of heart rate reserve. After 8 weeks, the variables of risk factors for metabolic syndrome were obtained. [Results] Systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were significantly decreased in the exercise non-smoker group and significantly increased in the non-exercise smoker group. Waist circumference was significantly reduced in both exercise groups regardless of smoking and significantly increased in the non-exercise smoker group. Triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose showed no differences between the groups. [Conclusion] Obesity and smoking management should be conducted together for students as well as for those with metabolic syndrome risk factors. It is recommended that more students participate in such programs, and exercise programs should be further developed and diversified to prevent metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular diseases.

  7. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  8. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  11. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  12. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  13. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  14. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  15. Exercise electrocardiogram in middle-aged and older leisure time sportsmen: 100 exercise tests would be enough to identify one silent myocardial ischemia at risk for cardiac event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupin, David; Edouard, Pascal; Oriol, Mathieu; Laukkanen, Jari; Abraham, Pierre; Doutreleau, Stéphane; Guy, Jean-Michel; Carré, François; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Roche, Frédéric; Chatard, Jean-Claude

    2018-04-15

    The importance of exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) has been controversial in the prevention of cardiac events among sportsmen. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of silent myocardial ischemia (SMI) from an exercise ECG and its relationship with induced coronary angiographic assessment and potentially preventable cardiac events. This prospective cohort study included leisure time asymptomatic sportsmen over 35years old, referred from 2011 to 2014 in the Sports Medicine Unit of the University Hospital of Saint-Etienne. Of the cohort of 1500 sportsmen (1205 men; mean age 50.7±9.4years; physical activity level 32.8±26.8MET-h/week), 951 (63%) had at least one cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. Family history, medical examination and standard resting 12-lead were collected. A total of 163 exercise ECGs (10.9%) were defined as positive, most of them due to SMI (n=129, 8.6%). SMI was an indication for coronary angiography in 23 cases, leading to 17 documented SMIs (1.1%), including 11 significant stenoses requiring revascularization. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high risk of CVD (OR=2.65 [CI 95%: 1.33-5.27], p=0.005) and an age >50years (OR=2.71 [CI 95%: 1.65-4.44], p<0.0001) were independently associated with confirmed SMI. The association of positive exercise ECG with significant coronary stenosis was stronger among sportsmen with CVD risk factors and older than 50years. Screening by exercise ECG can lower the risk of cardiac events in middle-aged and older sportsmen. One hundred tests would be enough to detect one silent myocardial ischemia at risk for cardiac event. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  17. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  18. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  19. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  20. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  1. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  2. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  3. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  4. FeNO and Exercise Testing in Children at Risk of Asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoos, Ann-Marie Malby; Christiansen, Christina Figgé; Stokholm, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    completed in 224 seven-year-old children from the at-risk Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood2000 birth cohort. The associations between FeNO, exercise test results, and reported respiratory symptoms during exercise were analyzed adjusting for gender, respiratory infections, and inhaled....... OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between FeNO, exercise test results, and a history of respiratory symptoms during exercise in children at risk of asthma. METHODS: FeNO measurement, exercise testing, and interview about respiratory symptoms during exercise were...... corticosteroid treatment. The associations were also analyzed stratified by asthma and atopic status. RESULTS: Of the 224 children, 28 (13%) had an established asthma diagnosis and 58 (26%) had a positive exercise test (≥15% drop in forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] from baseline). FeNO and bronchial...

  5. Endpoints of chronobiologic cardiovascular monitoring during pregnancy for planning exercise and assessing effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crakes, J G; Cornélissen, G; Kopher, R; Halberg, F

    1990-01-01

    The chronobiologic question is raised whether exercise may be indicated for the pregnant woman as a general prophylactic measure and, if so, whether it should be timed according to rhythms and stage of pregnancy. This question, recently considered by others without chronobiologic focus, is here reviewed against the background of results from ongoing chronobiologic studies of blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) in pregnancy. During pregnancy, the MESORs and circadian amplitudes of systolic (S), mean arterial (MA) and diastolic (D) BP are correlated with a questionnaire-assessed cardiovascular risk score. Such results were found under noisy ordinary conditions of life without accounting for effects of activity. They are group results, and as such require further work before they can contribute to identifying individuals at high risk in particular need of intervention, such as exercise. The dependence of exercise effects upon circadian rhythms should also prompt the use of rhythmometry at all ages for timing exercise, for gauging its effects and eventually for the optimization of fitness training for the population as well as for peak performance.

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  8. Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

    2008-08-01

    This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

  9. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  10. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  11. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  12. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  13. Effects of exercise improves muscle strength and fat mass in patients with high fracture risk: A randomized control trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ding-Cheng Chan

    2018-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The deterioration of the musculoskeletal system imposes significant impact on physical activity. Exercise is an important strategy which minimizes these changes. It is not clear which type of exercise provides better improvement on low physical performance, low muscle mass and low strength of sarcopenia. We aim to develop an integrated care (IC model and compare its relative efficacy in limb fat free mass, muscle strength, and physical performance with low extremities exercise (LEE in community dwelling older adults with high risk of fractures (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® ≧3% for hip fracture, ≧20% for major osteoporotic fracture or 1-min osteoporosis risk test (≧1 point or fall (≧2 falls in previous year. Methods: Patients were assigned randomized to participate in either IC or LEE group (n = 55 each for 3 months. All participants received education including home-based exercise. The IC group consisted of different modalities of exercise while the LEE group performed machine-based low extremities exercise. Fat free mass, muscle strength, and physical performance were measured at their baseline and 3-months follow-up. Results: Mean age was 73.8 ± 7 years with 69.1% women. Entire cohort demonstrated significant increment in fat free mass, muscle strength (4 indicators and physical performance (3 indicators. However, between group differences were not significant. Conclusion: With regular supervise exercise; both groups are equally effective in decreasing fat mass and increasing physical performance, muscle mass and strength. However, the IC group required fewer resources and thus more financially feasible in a community setting. Keywords: Bone mineral density, Gender differences, Integrated care, Low extremities exercise, Muscle strength

  14. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  17. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  18. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  20. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  1. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  2. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  3. Exercise in children with common congenital heart lesions: balancing benefits with risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliday, Melanie; Selvadurai, Hiran; Sherwood, Megan; Fitzgerald, Dominic A

    2013-10-01

    Children with corrected common congenital heart lesions are often withheld from regular exercise by their parents. While there are some modest risks with exercise, they should be seen in perspective, and the life-long benefits of regular exercise on general health, mood and well-being should be emphasised. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  4. Homocysteine, visceral adiposity-related novel cardiometabolic risk factors, and exaggerated blood pressure response to the exercise treadmill test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Türker Duyuler, Pinar; Duyuler, Serkan; Demir, Mevlüt; Uçar Elalmiş, Özgül; Güray, Ümit; İleri, Mehmet

    2017-12-01

    Exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise is a risk factor for the development of future hypertension. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between homocysteine, epicardial fat thickness, nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis, and exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise. We included 44 normotensive and 40 patients with exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise who have normal resting blood pressure and without a previous diagnosis of hypertension. All patients underwent treadmill exercise test and clinical, ultrasonographic, and echocardiographic evaluation. Exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise is defined as peak exercise systolic blood pressure of at least 210 mmHg in men and at least 190 mmHg in women. Homocysteine and other biochemical parameters were determined with standardized automated laboratory tests. Mean age of all participants is 47.9±8.5 years, and 36 of 84 participants were female. The frequency of diabetes mellitus in both groups was similar (P=0.250). Homeostasis model assessment index-insulin resistance had a statistically insignificant trend to be higher in a patient with exercise hypertension (P=0.058). The nonalcoholic fatty liver was more frequent in patients with exercise hypertension (13.6 vs. 47.5%, P=0.002). Epicardial fat thickness was increased in patients with exercise hypertension (5.5±1.5 vs. 7.3±1.1 mm; P=0.001). However, homocysteine levels did not significantly differ between normotensive and exercise hypertensive patients [12.3 μmol/l (5.7-16.9 μmol/l) vs. 13 μmol/l (5.9-28.3 μmol/l); P=0.883]. In our study, homocysteine levels were not associated with exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise; however, fatty liver and epicardial fat thickness as visceral adiposity-related cardiometabolic risk factors were significantly related with exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise in patients without a previous diagnosis of hypertension.

  5. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  6. Intensity of Leisure-Time Exercise and Risk of Depressive Symptoms Among Japanese Workers: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwahara, Keisuke; Honda, Toru; Nakagawa, Tohru; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mizoue, Tetsuya

    2018-02-05

    Data on the effect of physical activity intensity on depression is scarce. We investigated the prospective association between intensity of leisure-time exercise and risk of depressive symptoms among Japanese workers. The participants were 29,052 employees (24,653 men and 4,399 women) aged 20 to 64 years without psychiatric disease including depressive symptoms at health checkup in 2006-2007 and were followed up until 2014-2015. Details of leisure-time exercise were ascertained via a questionnaire. Depressive states were assessed using a 13-item questionnaire. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of depressive symptoms was estimated using Cox regression analysis. During a mean follow-up of 5.8 years with 168,203 person-years, 6,847 workers developed depressive symptoms. Compared with workers who engaged in no exercise during leisure-time (0 MET-hours per week), hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) associated with >0 to workers who engaged in moderate-intensity exercise alone; 0.93 (0.82-1.06), 0.82 (0.68-0.98), and 0.83 (0.71-0.98) among workers who engaged in vigorous-intensity exercise alone; and 0.96 (0.80-1.15), 0.80 (0.67-0.95), and 0.76 (0.66-0.87) among workers who engaged in both moderate- and vigorous-intensity exercise with adjustment for age, sex, lifestyles, work-related and socioeconomic factors, and body mass index. Additional adjustment for baseline depression score attenuated the inverse association, especially among those who engaged in moderate-intensity exercise alone. The results suggest that vigorous-intensity exercise alone or vigorous-intensity combined with moderate-intensity exercise would prevent depressive symptoms among Japanese workers.

  7. The Effects of Chronic Aerobic Exercise on Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Persons with Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miele, Emily M; Headley, Samuel A E

    2017-09-12

    Aerobic exercise training is a component of diabetes mellitus (DM) care guidelines due to its favorable effects on glycemic control and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. The purpose of this review is to outline the recent evidence regarding the clinical effects of chronic aerobic exercise on CVD risk factors in persons with DM and to compare the effects of varying intensities and types of exercise. Among individuals with DM, all types of aerobic exercise training can impact positively on some traditional and non-traditional risk factors for CVD. Training programs with a higher volume or intensity induce greater improvements in vascular function, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and lipid profiles. The beneficial outcomes of aerobic training include improvements in glycemic control, endothelial function, oxidative stress, dyslipidemia, myocardial function, adiposity, and CRF. Findings regarding markers of inflammation are discrepant and further research should focus on the role of exercise to impact upon the chronic inflammation associated with DM.

  8. Effects of exercise improves muscle strength and fat mass in patients with high fracture risk: A randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ding-Cheng; Chang, Chirn-Bin; Han, Der-Sheng; Hong, Cian-Hui; Hwang, Jawl-Shan; Tsai, Keh-Sung; Yang, Rong-Sen

    2017-10-26

    The deterioration of the musculoskeletal system imposes significant impact on physical activity. Exercise is an important strategy which minimizes these changes. It is not clear which type of exercise provides better improvement on low physical performance, low muscle mass and low strength of sarcopenia. We aim to develop an integrated care (IC) model and compare its relative efficacy in limb fat free mass, muscle strength, and physical performance with low extremities exercise (LEE) in community dwelling older adults with high risk of fractures (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX ® )) ≧3% for hip fracture, ≧20% for major osteoporotic fracture or 1-min osteoporosis risk test (≧1 point) or fall (≧2 falls in previous year). Patients were assigned randomized to participate in either IC or LEE group (n = 55 each) for 3 months. All participants received education including home-based exercise. The IC group consisted of different modalities of exercise while the LEE group performed machine-based low extremities exercise. Fat free mass, muscle strength, and physical performance were measured at their baseline and 3-months follow-up. Mean age was 73.8 ± 7 years with 69.1% women. Entire cohort demonstrated significant increment in fat free mass, muscle strength (4 indicators) and physical performance (3 indicators). However, between group differences were not significant. With regular supervise exercise; both groups are equally effective in decreasing fat mass and increasing physical performance, muscle mass and strength. However, the IC group required fewer resources and thus more financially feasible in a community setting. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  10. The effect of aerobic exercise on some diabetic risk factors in obese ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Exercise has been shown to prevent and delay onset of diabetes. The purpose of the present study is to examine the effect of walking exercise in reducing some diabetic risk factors in sedentary obese women. Methods: Eighteen untrained obese (BMI>30) women aged 19-25 years volunteer took part in the ...

  11. Exercise training and artery function in humans: nonresponse and its relationship to cardiovascular risk factors.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Green, D.J.; Eijsvogels, T.M.; Bouts, Y.M.; Maiorana, A.J.; Naylor, L.H.; Scholten, R.R.; Spaanderman, M.E.; Pugh, C.J.; Sprung, V.S.; Schreuder, T.H.; Jones, H.; Cable, T.; Hopman, M.T.E.; Thijssen, D.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of our study were to examine 1) the proportion of responders and nonresponders to exercise training in terms of vascular function; 2) a priori factors related to exercise training-induced changes in conduit artery function, and 3) the contribution of traditional cardiovascular risk

  12. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  13. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  14. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  15. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  16. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  17. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  18. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  1. The effect of exercise on obesity, body fat distribution and risk for type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goedecke, Julia H; Micklesfield, Lisa K

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), while exercise is known to reduce body fatness and attenuate the risk of T2D. The aim of this chapter is to examine the interactions between exercise, obesity and body fat distribution, and the risk for T2D. Firstly, we show that body fatness, in particular visceral adipose tissue (VAT) accumulation, is associated with insulin resistance and incident T2D. We then show that aerobic exercise of sufficient intensity and volume results in a decrease in body fat and VAT. Conversely, sedentary behavior and physical inactivity are associated with increased body fat and VAT. Finally, the chapter examines the interaction between physical activity (PA), obesity and risk for T2D and shows that both obesity and PA are significant independent predictors of incident T2D, but the magnitude of risk imparted by high levels of body fat is much greater than that of low levels of PA. Further, we show that obese physically active individuals are at greater risk for incident T2D than normal-weight physically inactive individuals. The mechanisms underlying this complex interaction include the ability of exercise to increase free fatty acid oxidation to match high rates of lipolysis associated with obesity, as well as the effects of exercise on adipokine, cytokine and myokine secretion. Exercise, of sufficient volume and intensity, is therefore recommended to reduce obesity, centralization of body fat, and risk of T2D.

  2. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  5. An exercise trial targeting African-American women with metabolic syndrome and at high risk for breast cancer: Rationale, design, and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Chiranjeev; Makambi, Kepher; Wallington, Sherrie F; Sheppard, Vanessa; Taylor, Teletia R; Hicks, Jennifer S; Adams-Campbell, Lucile L

    2015-07-01

    Metabolic syndrome and obesity are known risk factors for breast cancers. Exercise interventions can potentially modify circulating biomarkers of breast cancer risk but evidence in African-Americans and women with metabolic syndrome is lacking. The Focused Intervention on Exercise to Reduce CancEr (FIERCE) trial is a prospective, 6-month, 3-arm, randomized controlled trial to examine the effect of exercise on obesity, metabolic syndrome components, and breast cancer biomarkers among African-American women at high risk of breast cancer. Two hundred-forty inactive women with metabolic syndrome and absolute risk of breast cancer ≥ 1.40 will be randomized to one of the three trial arms: 1) a supervised, facility-based exercise arm; 2) a home-based exercise arm; and 3) a control group that maintains physical activity levels through the course of the trial. Assessments will be conducted at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. The primary outcome variables are anthropometric indicators of obesity, metabolic syndrome components, and inflammatory, insulin-pathway, and hormonal biomarkers of breast cancer risk. The FIERCE trial will provide evidence on whether a short-term exercise intervention might be effective in reducing breast cancer risk among African-American women with comorbidities and high breast cancer risk--a group traditionally under-represented in non-therapeutic breast cancer trials. NCT02103140. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Planning for exercises of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, M.V.

    1985-11-01

    This report is to be used in planning radiological emergency exercises to test the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Plan (FRMAP). Although developed for this specific purpose, the document also contains material that may be useful for planning other types of exercises. This report describes the types of exercises that might be used, the steps in planning and conducting the exercises, and the special considerations required for exercises to test the FRMAP. FRMAP exercises typically involve several federal and state agencies. General and specific objectives that could guide these exercises, as well as the possible activities of all the participants - players, controllers, and evaluators - are discussed. The resources that each participating federal agency might provide during an exercise are listed

  7. Quantifying risk and assessing outcome in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, T L

    1998-06-01

    Quality improvement, research, and reporting of outcome results can be stratified by preoperative risk by using a logistic regression equation or scores to correct for multiple risk factors. The more than 30-fold mortality differences between lowest and highest risk patients make it critical to stratify outcome results by patient severity. Probabilities are not predictions, however, and caution must be exercised when applying scores to individuals. Outcome assessment will grow in its importance to professionals, initially in the guise of quality reporting and improvement, but increasingly as a tool for risk assessment, patient counseling, and directing therapeutic decisions based on more complete information about patient subgroups. Physicians may be called on for recommendations in choosing systems for their hospitals and communities. Therefore, it is important to have an understanding of how such systems are developed, what factors indicate adequate performance of a system, and how such systems of risk stratification should be applied in practice.

  8. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  9. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  10. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  11. Problematic Exercise in Anorexia Nervosa: Testing Potential Risk Factors against Different Definitions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Rizk

    Full Text Available "Hyperactivity" has a wide prevalence range of 31% to 80% in the anorexia nervosa literature that could be partly due to the plethora of definitions provided by researchers in this field. The purpose of this study was two-fold: 1 To assess the variance across prevalence rates of problematic exercise encountered in patients with anorexia nervosa, in relation to seven different definitions found in the literature. 2 To examine how core eating disorder symptoms and the dimensions of emotional profile are associated with these different definitions and the impact of these definitions on the assessment of patients' quality of life. Exercise was evaluated in terms of duration, intensity, type and compulsion using a semi-structured questionnaire administered to 180 women suffering from severe anorexia nervosa. Seven different definitions of problematic exercise were identified in the literature: three entailing a single dimension of problematic exercise (duration, compulsion or intensity and four combining these different dimensions. Emotional profile scores, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, eating disorder symptomatology, worries and concerns about body shape, self-esteem and quality of life were assessed using several established questionnaires. The prevalence of problematic exercise varied considerably from, 5% to 54%, depending on the number of criteria used for its definition. The type and level of eating disorder symptomatology was found to be associated with several definitions of problematic exercise. Surprisingly, a better self-reported quality of life was found among problematic exercisers compared to non-problematic exercisers in three of the definitions. The different definitions of problematic exercise explain the broad prevalence ranges and the conflicting associations generally reported in the literature between problematic exercise and eating disorder-related psychological parameters. There is an urgent need for a valid consensus on the

  12. Problematic Exercise in Anorexia Nervosa: Testing Potential Risk Factors against Different Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizk, Melissa; Lalanne, Christophe; Berthoz, Sylvie; Kern, Laurence; Godart, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    "Hyperactivity" has a wide prevalence range of 31% to 80% in the anorexia nervosa literature that could be partly due to the plethora of definitions provided by researchers in this field. The purpose of this study was two-fold: 1) To assess the variance across prevalence rates of problematic exercise encountered in patients with anorexia nervosa, in relation to seven different definitions found in the literature. 2) To examine how core eating disorder symptoms and the dimensions of emotional profile are associated with these different definitions and the impact of these definitions on the assessment of patients' quality of life. Exercise was evaluated in terms of duration, intensity, type and compulsion using a semi-structured questionnaire administered to 180 women suffering from severe anorexia nervosa. Seven different definitions of problematic exercise were identified in the literature: three entailing a single dimension of problematic exercise (duration, compulsion or intensity) and four combining these different dimensions. Emotional profile scores, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, eating disorder symptomatology, worries and concerns about body shape, self-esteem and quality of life were assessed using several established questionnaires. The prevalence of problematic exercise varied considerably from, 5% to 54%, depending on the number of criteria used for its definition. The type and level of eating disorder symptomatology was found to be associated with several definitions of problematic exercise. Surprisingly, a better self-reported quality of life was found among problematic exercisers compared to non-problematic exercisers in three of the definitions. The different definitions of problematic exercise explain the broad prevalence ranges and the conflicting associations generally reported in the literature between problematic exercise and eating disorder-related psychological parameters. There is an urgent need for a valid consensus on the definition of

  13. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  14. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  15. Changes in Physical Activity Behaviour and Health Risk Factors Following a Randomised Controlled Pilot Workplace Exercise Intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Naomi Burn; Lynda Heather Norton; Claire Drummond; Kevin Ian Norton

    2017-01-01

    Background: Declining physical activity (PA) and associated health risk factors are well established. Workplace strategies to increase PA may be beneficial to ameliorate extensive sedentary behavior. This study assessed the effectiveness of two PA interventions in workplace settings. Methods: Interventions were conducted over 40 days targeting insufficiently active (<150 min/wk PA) and/or obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) adults; participants were randomly allocated to instructor-led exercise session...

  16. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  17. Intensity and Types of Physical Exercise in Relation to Dementia Risk Reduction in Community-Living Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Allen T C; Richards, Marcus; Chan, Wai C; Chiu, Helen F K; Lee, Ruby S Y; Lam, Linda C W

    2015-10-01

    To systematically examine the amount and type of physical exercise that might reduce the future risk of dementia in community-living older people. Six-year observational study. All the Elderly Health Centers (EHCs) of the Department of Health in Hong Kong. A total of 15,589 community-living Chinese aged 65 years and older with no history of stroke, clinical dementia, or Parkinson disease when they completed health assessment at the EHCs in the first 6 months of 2005. Self-reported habitual physical exercise patterns, including the frequency, duration, and type of exercise, at baseline and Year 3 were analyzed. The study outcome was incident dementia in 6 years. Dementia was defined by presence of clinical dementia in accordance with the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems or Clinical Dementia Rating of 1 to 3. Both the cognitively stable and incident groups reported exercising a median of 7 days per week and 45 minutes per day at baseline and Year 3. The former practiced aerobic and mind-body exercises more at baseline and Year 3, whereas the latter practiced stretching and toning exercises more. The odds ratio for dementia remained significant for aerobic (0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.95; P = .01) and mind-body exercises (0.76; 0.63-0.92; P = .004) after excluding participants who developed dementia within 3 years after baseline and adjusting for important potential confounders, such as age, gender, educational level, and physical and psychiatric comorbidities. Although physical exercise is widely promoted as a nonpharmacological intervention for dementia prevention, not all types of exercise appear to be useful in reducing risk of dementia in older people. Our findings suggest that daily participation in aerobic and mind-body but not stretching and toning exercises might protect community-living older adults from developing dementia. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and

  18. Participating in a virtual reality balance exercise program can reduce risk and fear of falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Devinder K A; Rajaratnam, Bala S; Palaniswamy, Vijayakumar; Pearson, Hannah; Raman, Vimal P; Bong, Pei Sien

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the effectiveness of virtual reality balance games (VRBG) to decrease risk and fear of falls among women. Thirty six community dwelling women aged 56 and above were randomly divided into experimental (exercises using VRBG focus on improving balance) and control (conventional balance exercises) groups. Both groups attended a twice 6 weekly exercise session for an hour. Risk and fear of falls were measured with Physiological Profile Approach (PPA) and Activity Specific Balance Scale (ABC-6). Pre and post intervention differences between the groups were examined using two way repeated measures ANOVA. Both VRBG and conventional balance exercise groups had significant decrease in PPA (pbalance confidence and decrease risk of falls among community dwelling women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Effect of Exercise Training on Cardiac Biomarkers in At-Risk Populations: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenney, Susan Sullivan; Brockemer, Derrick Paul; Ng, Andy C; Smolewski, Michael A; Smolgovskiy, Vladimir M; Lepley, Adam S

    2017-12-01

    Studies have demonstrated beneficial effects of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers for healthy individuals; however, a comprehensive review regarding the effect of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers in at-risk populations is lacking. A literature search was performed to identify studies meeting the following criteria: randomized controlled study, participants with pathology/activity limitations, biomarker outcome (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, C-reactive protein, insulin, triglycerides, or glucose), and exercise intervention. Means and standard deviations from each biomarker were used to calculate standardized Cohen's d effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals. In total, 37 articles were included. The majority (44/57; 77%) of data points demonstrated moderate to strong effects for the reduction in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein, and elevation in high-density lipoprotein following exercise. The majority of data points demonstrated strong effects for reductions in blood glucose (24/30; 80%) and insulin (23/24; 96%) levels following exercise intervention. Evidence is heterogeneous regarding the influence of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers in at-risk patients, which does not allow a definitive conclusion. Favorable effects include reductions in triglycerides, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, glucose, and insulin, and elevation in high-density lipoprotein following exercise intervention. The strongest evidence indicates that exercise is favorable for the reduction in glucose and cholesterol levels among obese patients, and reduction of insulin regardless of population.

  20. Association between physical exercise, body mass index, and risk of fibromyalgia: longitudinal data from the Norwegian Nord-Trøndelag Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mork, Paul J; Vasseljen, Ottar; Nilsen, Tom I L

    2010-05-01

    To examine the association between leisure time physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), and risk of fibromyalgia (FM). A longitudinal study with baseline assessment of physical exercise (frequency, duration, and intensity) and BMI was used to explore the risk of having FM at 11-year followup in a large, unselected female population (n = 15,990) without FM or physical impairments at baseline. At followup, 380 cases of incident FM were reported. A weak dose-response association was found between level of physical exercise and risk of FM (for trend, P = 0.13) where women who reported the highest exercise level had a relative risk (RR) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.55-1.07). BMI was an independent risk factor for FM (for trend, P BMI > or =25.0 kg/m(2)) had a 60-70% higher risk compared with women with normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)). Overweight or obese women who exercised > or =1 hour per week had an RR of 1.72 (95% CI 1.07-2.76) compared with normal-weight women with a similar activity level, whereas the risk was >2-fold higher for overweight or obese women who were either inactive (RR 2.09, 95% CI 1.36-3.21) or exercised <1 hour per week (RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.39-3.46). Being overweight or obese was associated with an increased risk of FM, especially among women who also reported low levels of physical exercise. Community-based measures aimed at reducing the incidence of FM should emphasize the importance of regular exercise and the maintenance of normal body weight.

  1. Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

    2014-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  3. Unilateral Arm Crank Exercise Test for Assessing Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Individuals with Hemiparetic Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oyake, Kazuaki; Yamaguchi, Tomofumi; Oda, Chihiro

    2017-01-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness assessment with leg cycle exercise testing may be influenced by motor impairments in the paretic lower extremity. Hence, this study examined the usefulness of a unilateral arm crank exercise test to assess cardiorespiratory fitness in individuals with stroke, including s...

  4. SMA statement the benefits and risks of exercise during pregnancy. Sport Medicine Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-03-01

    There are numerous benefits to pregnant women of remaining active during pregnancy. These include improved weight control and maintenance of fitness. There may also be benefits in terms of reduced risk of development of gestational diabetes meilitus and improved psychological functioning. Moderate intensity aerobic exercise has been shown to be safe in pregnancy, with a number of studies now indicating that for trained athletes it may be possible to exercise at a higher level than is currently recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Studies of resistance training, incorporating moderate weights and avoiding maximal isometnc contractions, have shown no adverse outcomes. There may be benefits of increased strength and flexibility. The risk of neural tube defects due to exercise-induced hyperthermia that is suggested by animal studies is less likely in women, because of more effective mechanisms of heat dissipation in humans. There is accumulating evidence to suggest that participation in moderate intensity exercise throughout pregnancy may enhance birth weight, while more severe or frequent exercise, maintained for longer into the pregnancy: may result in lighter babies. There have been no reports of foetal injury or death in relation to trauma or contact during sporting activities. Despite this, a risk of severe blunt trauma is present in some sporting situations as pregnancy progresses. Exercise and lactation are compatible in the post-partum period, providing adequate calories are consumed. Considerations of pelvic floor function and type of delivery are relevant in planning a return to certain types of exercise at this time.

  5. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  6. Functional measures show improvements after a home exercise program following supervised balance training in older adults with elevated fall risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisher, Kristen; Mann, Kimberly; VanDyke, Sarah; Johansson, Charity; Vallabhajosula, Srikant

    2018-03-05

    Supervised balance training shows immediate benefit for older adults at fall risk. The long-term effectiveness of such training can be enhanced by implementing a safe and simple home exercise program (HEP). We investigated the effects of a12-week unsupervised HEP following supervised clinic-based balance training on functional mobility, balance, fall risk, and gait. Six older adults with an elevated fall risk obtained an HEP and comprised the HEP group (HEPG) and five older adults who were not given an HEP comprised the no HEP group (NoHEPG). The HEP consisted of three static balance exercises: feet-together, single-leg stance, and tandem. Each exercise was to be performed twice for 30-60 s, once per day, 3 days per week for 12 weeks. Participants were educated on proper form, safety, and progression of exercises. Pre- and post-HEP testing included Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) assessments, Activities-Balance Confidence, Late-Life Functional Disability Instrument and instrumented assessments of balance and gait (Limits of Stability, modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance, Gait). A healthy control group (HCG; n = 11) was also tested. For most of the measures, the HEPG improved to the level of HCG. Though task-specific improvements like BBS and SPPB components were seen, the results did not carry over to more dynamic assessments. Results provide proof of concept that a simple HEP can be independently implemented and effective for sustaining and/or improving balance in older adults at elevated fall-risk after they have undergone a clinic-based balance intervention.

  7. Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Idorn, Manja; thor Straten, Eivind Per

    2016-01-01

    We recently demonstrated that voluntary exercise leads to an influx of immune cells in tumors and a greater than 60% reduction in tumor incidence and growth across several mouse models. Improved immunological control of tumor progression may have important clinical implications in the prevention...

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  13. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Developing Critical Thinking Skills: Assessing the Effectiveness of Workbook Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Elise D.; Jefferson, Renee N.

    2015-01-01

    To address the challenge of developing critical thinking skills in college students, this empirical study examines the effectiveness of cognitive exercises in developing those skills. The study uses Critical Thinking: Building the Basics by Walter, Knudsvig, and Smith (2003). This workbook is specifically designed to exercise and develop critical…

  15. Self-Assessment Exercises in Continuum Mechanics with Autonomous Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcé-Nogué, Jordi; Gil, LLuís; Pérez, Marco A.; Sánchez, Montserrat

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this work is to generate a set of exercises to improve the autonomous learning in "Continuum Mechanics" through a virtual platform. Students will have to resolve four exercises autonomously related to the subject developed in class and they will post the solutions on the virtual platform within a deadline. Students…

  16. Insulin Sensitivity and Plasma Glucose Response to Aerobic Exercise in Pregnant Women at Risk for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embaby, Heba; Elsayed, Enas; Fawzy, Mohamed

    2016-09-01

    Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the common complications that occur during pregnancy. Early intervention is essential to prevent the development of the disease in the non-pregnant state but also helpful in preventing the occurrence of GDM. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of aerobic exercises on insulin sensitivity and fasting plasma glucose level in pregnant women with risk for gestational diabetes mellitus. Forty multigravidae women between 20-24 weeks of gestation with risk for GDM were randomly selected (age range was 25-35 years), body mass index ranged from 30-35 kg/m 2 . Women were divided into two equal groups: intervention group (A), which followed an aerobic exercise program in the form of walking on treadmill, three times weekly until the end of 37 weeks of gestation in addition to diet control. Control group (B) which received diet control with usual care given by obstetricians and midwives. Evaluation of the women in both groups was carried out before and after treatment program through assessment of fasting blood glucose and insulin levels. There was a highly statistically significance decrease in fasting blood glucose level, fasting insulin level in both groups where the p value was 0.0001 favoring group (A). Moderate intensity of aerobic exercises were effective in reducing fasting blood glucose level and fasting insulin level in pregnant women with risk for gestational diabetes mellitus.

  17. Exercise Frequency and Fracture Risk in Older Adults-How Often Is Enough?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmler, Wolfgang; von Stengel, Simon; Kohl, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    Due to older people's low sports participation rates, exercise frequency may be the most critical component for designing exercise protocols that address fracture risk. The aims of the present article were to review and summarize the independent effect of exercise frequency (ExFreq) on the main determinants of fracture prevention, i.e., bone strength, fall frequency, and fall impact in older adults. Evidence collected last year suggests that there is a critical dose of ExFreq that just affects bone (i.e., BMD). Corresponding data for fall-related fracture risk are still sparse and inconsistent, however. The minimum effective dose (MED) of ExFreq that just favorably affects BMD at the lumbar spine and femoral neck has been found to vary between 2.1 and 2.5 sessions/week. Although this MED cannot necessarily be generalized to other cohorts, we speculate that this "critical exercise frequency" might not significantly vary among adult cohorts.

  18. Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Maureen E

    2008-01-01

    To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

  19. Unilateral Arm Crank Exercise Test for Assessing Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Individuals with Hemiparetic Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuaki Oyake

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiorespiratory fitness assessment with leg cycle exercise testing may be influenced by motor impairments in the paretic lower extremity. Hence, this study examined the usefulness of a unilateral arm crank exercise test to assess cardiorespiratory fitness in individuals with stroke, including sixteen individuals with hemiparetic stroke (mean ± SD age, 56.4±7.5 years and 12 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Participants performed the unilateral arm crank and leg cycle exercise tests to measure oxygen consumption (V˙O2 and heart rate at peak exercise. The V˙O2 at peak exercise during the unilateral arm crank exercise test was significantly lower in the stroke group than in the control group (p<0.001. In the stroke group, the heart rate at peak exercise during the unilateral arm crank exercise test did not significantly correlate with the Brunnstrom recovery stages of the lower extremity (p=0.137, whereas there was a significant correlation during the leg cycle exercise test (rho = 0.775, p<0.001. The unilateral arm crank exercise test can detect the deterioration of cardiorespiratory fitness independently of lower extremity motor impairment severity in individuals with hemiparetic stroke. This study is registered with UMIN000014733.

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  1. Attitudes to risk analysis: a case study exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, J.M.; Lee, T.R.

    1987-01-01

    An exploratory practical exercise was conducted by the participants as part of the workshop. Its principal aim was to reinforce, by direct experience, the arguments presented in the authors' paper on Biases and Attitudes. It was hoped to make participants personally aware that the judgements and decisions of scientists, like those of everyone else, are equivocal. Scientists react to new information on any topic within the framework of a set of organized pre-conceptions in relation to that topic. It is true that science has the best available procedures available to defend against personal bias, but these should begin with the acknowledgement that bias is possible and the recognition that the defences are not perfect. A secondary aim of the exercise was to test the feasibility of introducing a novel form of learning and information exchange to the scientific workshop mode

  2. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  3. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  4. The public reception of the Research Assessment Exercise 1996.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Warner

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the public reception of the Research Assessment Exercise 1996 (RAE from its announcement in December 1996 to the decline of discussion at end May 1997. A model for diffusion of the RAE is established which distinguishes extra-communal (or exoteric from intra-communal (or esoteric media. The different characteristics of each medium and the changing nature of the discussion over time are considered. Different themes are distinguished in the public reception of the RAE: the spatial distribution of research; the organisation of universities; disciplinary differences in understanding; a perceived conflict between research and teaching; the development of a culture of accountability; and analogies with the organisation of professional football. In conclusion, it is suggested that the RAE and its effects can be more fully considered from the perspective of scholarly communication and understandings of the development of knowledge than it has been by previous contributions in information science, which have concentrated on the possibility of more efficient implementation of existing processes. A fundamental responsibility for funding councils is also identified: to promote the overall health of university education and research, while establishing meaningful differentiations between units.

  5. Home-based exercise program and fall-risk reduction in older adults with multiple sclerosis: phase 1 randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnoff, Jacob J; Finlayson, Marcia; McAuley, Edward; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

    2014-03-01

    To determine the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of a home-based exercise intervention targeting fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. A randomized controlled pilot trial. A home-based exercise program. Participants were randomly allocated to either a home-based exercise intervention group (n = 13) or a waiting list control group (n = 14). The exercise group completed exercises targeting lower muscle strength and balance three times a week for 12 weeks. The control group continued normal activity. Fall risk (Physiological Profile Assessment scores), balance (Berg Balance Scale), and walking testing prior to and immediately following the 12-week intervention. Each outcome measure was placed in an analysis of covariance with group as the between-subject factor and baseline values as the covariate. Effect sizes were calculated. Twelve participants from the control group and ten from the exercise group completed the study. There were no related adverse events. Fall risk was found to decrease in the exercise group following the intervention (1.1 SD 1.0 vs. 0.6 SD 0.6) while there was an increase in fall risk in the control group (1.9 SD 1.5 vs. 2.2 SD 1.9). Effect sizes for most outcomes were large (η(2) > 0.15). Home-based exercise was found to be feasible, safe, and effective for reducing physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple sclerosis. Our findings support the implementation of a larger trial to reduce fall risk in persons with multiple sclerosis.

  6. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  7. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  8. Relationship between nutritional risk and exercise capacity in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in male patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Xizheng; Liu, Jinming; Luo, Yanrong; Xu, Xiaowen; Han, Zhiqing; Li, Hailing

    2015-01-01

    Objective The nutritional status of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is associated with their exercise capacity. In the present study, we have explored the relationship between nutritional risk and exercise capacity in severe male COPD patients. Methods A total of 58 severe COPD male patients were enrolled in this study. The patients were assigned to no nutritional risk group (n=33) and nutritional risk group (n=25) according to the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS, 2002) criteria. Blood gas analysis, conventional pulmonary function testing, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing were performed on all the patients. Results Results showed that the weight and BMI of the patients in the nutritional risk group were significantly lower than in the no nutritional risk group (Pnutritional risk group was significantly higher than that of the nutritional risk group (Pnutritional risk group were significantly lower than those of the no nutritional risk group (Pnutritional risk based on NRS 2002 in severe COPD male patients is supported by these results of this study. PMID:26150712

  9. Assessing Metabolic Syndrome Through Increased Heart Rate During Exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoumeh Sadeghi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to assess changes in resting and maximum heart rates as primary indicators of cardiac autonomic function in metabolic syndrome (MetS patients and to determine their value for discriminating MetS from non-MetS. 468 participants were enrolled in this cross-sectional study and assessed according to the updated adult treatment panel III (ATP-III definition of MetS. Resting and maximum heart rates were recorded following the Bruce protocol during an exercise. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to identify the best cutoff point for discriminating MetS from the non-MetS state. 194 participants (41.5% were diagnosed as MetS. The mean resting heart rate (RHR was not statistically different between the two groups (P=0.078. However, the mean maximum heart (MHR rate was considerably higher in participants with MetS (142.37±14.84 beats per min compared to the non-MetS group (134.62±21.63 beats per min (P<0.001. In the MetS group, the MHR was positively correlated with the serum triglyceride level (β=0.185, P=0.033 and was inversely associated with age (β=-0.469, P<0.001. The MHR had a moderate value for discriminating MetS from the non-MetS state (c=0.580, P=0.004 with the optimal cutoff point of 140 beats per min. In MetS patients, the MHR was significantly greater compared to non-MetS subjects and was directly correlated with serum triglyceride levels and inversely with advanced age. Moreover, MHR can be used as a suspicious indicator for identifying MetS.

  10. Assessing Metabolic Syndrome Through Increased Heart Rate During Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Gharipour, Mojgan; Nezafati, Pouya; Shafie, Davood; Aghababaei, Esmaeil; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

    2016-11-01

    The present study aimed to assess changes in resting and maximum heart rates as primary indicators of cardiac autonomic function in metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients and to determine their value for discriminating MetS from non-MetS. 468 participants were enrolled in this cross-sectional study and assessed according to the updated adult treatment panel III (ATP-III) definition of MetS. Resting and maximum heart rates were recorded following the Bruce protocol during an exercise. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the best cutoff point for discriminating MetS from the non-MetS state. 194 participants (41.5%) were diagnosed as MetS. The mean resting heart rate (RHR) was not statistically different between the two groups (P=0.078). However, the mean maximum heart (MHR) rate was considerably higher in participants with MetS (142.37±14.84 beats per min) compared to the non-MetS group (134.62±21.63 beats per min) (P<0.001). In the MetS group, the MHR was positively correlated with the serum triglyceride level (β=0.185, P=0.033) and was inversely associated with age (β=-0.469, P<0.001). The MHR had a moderate value for discriminating MetS from the non-MetS state (c=0.580, P=0.004) with the optimal cutoff point of 140 beats per min. In MetS patients, the MHR was significantly greater compared to non-MetS subjects and was directly correlated with serum triglyceride levels and inversely with advanced age. Moreover, MHR can be used as a suspicious indicator for identifying MetS.

  11. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  12. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  13. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  14. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  16. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  17. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  18. The Acute Risks of Exercise in Apparently Healthy Adults and Relevance for Prevention of Cardiovascular Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jack M; Burr, Jamie F; Banks, Laura; Thomas, Scott G

    2016-04-01

    Increased physical activity (PA) is associated with improved quality of life and reductions in cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and all-cause mortality in the general population in a dose-response manner. However, PA acutely increases the risk of adverse CV event or sudden cardiac death (SCD) above levels expected at rest. We review the likelihood of adverse CV events related to exercise in apparently healthy adults and strategies for prevention, and contextualize our understanding of the long-term risk reduction conferred from PA. A systematic review of the literature was performed using electronic databases; additional hand-picked relevant articles from reference lists and additional sources were included after the search. The incidence of adverse CV events in adults is extremely low during and immediately after PA of varying types and intensities and is significantly lower in those with long-standing PA experience. The risk of SCD and nonfatal events during and immediately after PA remains extremely low (well below 0.01 per 10,000 participant hours); increasing age and PA intensity are associated with greater risk. In most cases of exercise-related SCD, occult CV disease is present and SCD is typically the first clinical event. Exercise acutely increases the risk of adverse CV events, with greater risk associated with vigorous intensity. The risks of an adverse CV event during and immediately after exercise are outweighed by the health benefits of vigorous exercise performed regularly. A key challenge remains the identification of occult structural heart disease and inheritable conditions that increase the chances of lethal arrhythmias during exercise. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Facial feature tracking: a psychophysiological measure to assess exercise intensity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Kathleen H; Clark, Bradley; Périard, Julien D; Goecke, Roland; Thompson, Kevin G

    2018-04-01

    The primary aim of this study was to determine whether facial feature tracking reliably measures changes in facial movement across varying exercise intensities. Fifteen cyclists completed three, incremental intensity, cycling trials to exhaustion while their faces were recorded with video cameras. Facial feature tracking was found to be a moderately reliable measure of facial movement during incremental intensity cycling (intra-class correlation coefficient = 0.65-0.68). Facial movement (whole face (WF), upper face (UF), lower face (LF) and head movement (HM)) increased with exercise intensity, from lactate threshold one (LT1) until attainment of maximal aerobic power (MAP) (WF 3464 ± 3364mm, P exercise intensities (UF minus LF at: LT1, 1048 ± 383mm; LT2, 1208 ± 611mm; MAP, 1401 ± 712mm; P exercise intensity.

  20. Constant infusion transpulmonary thermodilution for the assessment of cardiac output in exercising humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calbet, J A L; Mortensen, Stefan; Munch, G D W

    2016-01-01

    To determine the accuracy and precision of constant infusion transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output (CITT-Q) assessment during exercise in humans, using indocyanine green (ICG) dilution and bolus transpulmonary thermodilution (BTD) as reference methods, cardiac output (Q) was determined......: 6.1-11.1%). In conclusion, cardiac output can be precisely and accurately determined with constant infusion transpulmonary thermodilution in exercising humans....

  1. A Heuristic Tool for Teaching Business Writing: Self-Assessment, Knowledge Transfer, and Writing Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Lorelei A.

    2013-01-01

    To teach effective business communication, instructors must target students’ current weaknesses in writing. One method for doing so is by assigning writing exercises. When used heuristically, writing exercises encourage students to practice self-assessment, self-evaluation, active learning, and knowledge transfer, all while reinforcing the basics…

  2. Quality assessment of shoulder plyometric exercises: Examining the relationship to scapular muscle activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calé-Benzoor, Maya; Maenhout, Annelies; Arnon, Michal; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Werrin, Mia; Cools, Ann

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate performance quality of shoulder plyometric exercises, and examine the relationship to scapular muscle activation during an intense exercise bout. Observational study. University laboratory. 32 healthy university students (male/female: 14/18) volunteers. Subjects performed 10 plyometric exercises. Surface EMG of upper (UT), middle (MT) and lower (LT) trapezius and serratus anterior (SA) was registered. A quality assessment questionnaire was administered at the beginning and end of the exercise bout. Muscle activation at the beginning and end was evaluated by t-test. Mixed repeated measures ANOVA was conducted to test the effects of criterion-quality, time, muscles, exercises, and their interactions. Increased EMG activation was noted in 34/40 cases, (21/40 significant (p plyometric exercises. Ability to keep a consistent arc of motion was the most sensitive marker of decline of performance quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparison of the effects of virtual reality-based balance exercises and conventional exercises on balance and fall risk in older adults living in nursing homes in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeşilyaprak, Sevgi Sevi; Yıldırım, Meriç Şenduran; Tomruk, Murat; Ertekin, Özge; Algun, Z Candan

    2016-01-01

    There is limited information on effective balance training techniques including virtual reality (VR)-based balance exercises in residential settings and no studies have been designed to compare the effects of VR-based balance exercises with conventional balance exercises in older adults living in nursing homes in Turkey. The objective of our study was to investigate the effects of VR-based balance exercises on balance and fall risk in comparison to conventional balance exercises in older adults living in nursing homes. A total sample of 18 subjects (65-82 years of age) with fall history who were randomly assigned to either the VR group (Group 1, n = 7) or the conventional exercise group (Group 2, n = 11) completed the exercise training. In both groups, Berg balance score (BBS), timed up & go duration, and left leg stance and tandem stance duration with eyes closed significantly improved with time (p 0.05) after training, indicating that neither the exercise method was superior. Similar improvements were found in balance and fall risk with VR-based balance training and conventional balance training in older adults living in the nursing home. Both exercise trainings can be preferable by health care professionals considering fall prevention. Appropriate patient selection is essential.

  4. Effects of prolonged exercise versus multiple short exercise sessions on risk for metabolic syndrome and the atherogenic index in middle-aged obese women: a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, JinWook; Kim, KwangJun; Hong, Jeeyoung; Kong, Hyoun-Joong

    2017-08-22

    Many people, although they may recognise the positive effects of exercise, do not exercise regularly owing to lack of time. This study aimed to investigate the effects of prolonged single-session exercise and multiple short sessions of exercise on the risk of metabolic syndrome and the atherogenic index in middle-aged obese women. Thirty-six participants were divided into the single-session group, multiple-session group, and control group. The single-session group engaged in one session of treadmill exercise for 30 min a day; the multiple-session group had three sessions of 10 min a day. Both groups exercised 3 days/week for 12 weeks. The control group did not perform any exercise. The single-session group showed decreases in weight (0.97 kg [95% C.I. = 0.09-1.83], p exercise is superior to multiple short sessions for improving the risk of metabolic syndrome and the atherogenic index in middle-aged obese women. However, multiple short sessions can be recommended as an alternative to prolonged exercise when the goal is to decrease blood glucose or waist circumference.

  5. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  6. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  7. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  8. Acute and chronic effects of sprint interval exercise on postprandial lipemia in women at-risk for the metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freese, Eric C; Gist, Nicholas H; Acitelli, Rachelle M; McConnell, Whitni J; Beck, Catherine D; Hausman, Dorothy B; Murrow, Jonathan R; Cureton, Kirk J; Evans, Ellen M

    2015-04-01

    Individuals diagnosed with the metabolic syndrome (MetS) exhibit elevated postprandial lipemia (PPL). The aims of this investigation were to determine 1) if an acute bout of sprint interval training (SIT) attenuates PPL; and 2) if the attenuation of PPL following 6 wk of SIT is magnified compared with a single session of SIT prior to training in women at-risk for MetS (n = 45; 30-65 yr). Women were randomized to SIT (n = 22) or a nonexercise control (n = 23; CON) for 6 wk. Postprandial responses to a high-fat meal challenge (HFMC) were assessed in the CON group before (B-HFMC) and after (Post-HFMC) without prior exercise and in the SIT group at baseline (B-HFMC) without prior exercise, after an acute bout of SIT (four 30-s all-out sprints with 4-min recovery) prior to (Pre-HFMC), and after the 6-wk intervention (Post-HFMC). Responses to the HFMC were assessed by collecting venous blood samples in the fasted state and at 0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 min postprandial. Compared with baseline, an acute bout of SIT before (Pre-HFMC) and after the 6-wk intervention (Post-HFMC) significantly attenuated fasted TG (P exercise to reduce fasted and postprandial TG concentrations in women at-risk for MetS. Six weeks of SIT does not magnify the attenuation of PPL in response to a single session of SIT. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  9. Association of diet, exercise, and smoking modification with risk of early cardiovascular events after acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Clara K; Jolly, Sanjit; Rao-Melacini, Purnima; Fox, Keith A A; Anand, Sonia S; Yusuf, Salim

    2010-02-16

    Although preventive drug therapy is a priority after acute coronary syndrome, less is known about adherence to behavioral recommendations. The aim of this study was to examine the influence of adherence to behavioral recommendations in the short term on risk of cardiovascular events. The study population included 18 809 patients from 41 countries enrolled in the Organization to Assess Strategies in Acute Ischemic Syndromes (OASIS) 5 randomized clinical trial. At the 30-day follow-up, patients reported adherence to diet, physical activity, and smoking cessation. Cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality were documented to 6 months. About one third of smokers persisted in smoking. Adherence to neither diet nor exercise recommendations was reported by 28.5%, adherence to either diet or exercise by 41.6%, and adherence to both by 29.9%. In contrast, 96.1% of subjects reported antiplatelet use, 78.9% reported statin use, and 72.4% reported angiotensin-converting enzyme/angiotensin receptor blocker use. Quitting smoking was associated with a decreased risk of myocardial infarction compared with persistent smoking (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.89). Diet and exercise adherence was associated with a decreased risk of myocardial infarction compared with nonadherence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 0.69). Patients who reported persistent smoking and nonadherence to diet and exercise had a 3.8-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.5 to 5.9) increased risk of myocardial infarction/stroke/death compared with never smokers who modified diet and exercise. Adherence to behavioral advice (diet, exercise, and smoking cessation) after acute coronary syndrome was associated with a substantially lower risk of recurrent cardiovascular events. These findings suggest that behavioral modification should be given priority similar to other preventive medications immediately after acute coronary

  10. Response of left ventricular volume to exercise in man assessed by radionuclide equilibrium angiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slutsky, R.; Karliner, J.; Ricci, D.; Schuler, G.; Pfisterer, M.; Peterson, K.; Ashburn, W.

    1979-01-01

    To assess the effects of exercise on left ventricular volumes we studied 10 normal men, 15 patients with coronary disease who developed angina pectoris during exercise, and 10 patients with known coronary disease who did not develop angina during exercise. Each subject performed supine bicycle exercise under a mobile, single-crystal scintillation camera until angina or fatigue occurred. Technetium-99m bound to human serum albumin was the imaging agent. Data were collected at rest and during the last 2 minutes of each 3-minute stage of exercise and for 10 minutes after exercise. Volumes were calculated by a new radionuclide technique that correlated well with cineangiography and is expressed in nondimensional units. In normal subjects, the end-diastolic volume (EDV) at rest was not different from that a peak exercise. The end-systolic volume (ESV) decreased at peak exercise. ESV decreased progressively in all but two of 30 exercise periods. Angina patients had a larger EDV at rest and during chest pain than normals. Angina patients increased their ESV during chest pain resulting in a decreased ejection fraction (EF). All angina patients had a higher ESV during chest pain than during the exercise stage before chest pain. As a group, patients who did not develop angina had a lower EDV at rest and peak exercise than those who did develop angina. We conclude: that the EF increases during exercise due to a decrease in ESV; that the EF in patients with angina decreases because of an increase in ESV; and that the EF in coronary disease patients without angina shows no change because there is no significant change in the ESV. Radionuclide equilibrium angiography may prove useful for assessing EF and volume changes in patients with coronary artery disease

  11. Noninvasive assessment of changes in myocardial perfusion and ventricular performance following exercise training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubau, J.; Witztum, K.; Froelicher, V.; Jensen, D.; Atwood, E.; McKirnan, M.D.; Reynolds, J.; Ashburn, W.

    1982-01-01

    Seventeen coronary patients (CAD) underwent 201 Tl treadmill and radionuclide (RNV) ejection fraction supine bicycle testing before and after 5.6 +/- 1.6 (mean +/- SD) months of an exercise program. Thallium data were assessed both using analog images and a computerized circumferential profile technique. Patients exercised on the treadmill to a higher workload after the exercise program, but achieved a similar pressure-rate product. When interpreting the analog thallium images, only 50% agreement was obtained for the assessment of changes in myocardial perfusion (pre/post-training). The computer technique, however, had low inter-intraobserver variability (6%) and better agreement (90.5%). Using the circumferential profile method, five patients improved (a total of 11 regions) and one patient worsened (with two regions). Before the exercise program, the ejection fraction (EF) response to supine bike exercise was normal (an increase greater than 11%) in four, flat in seven, and severely abnormal (a decrease of more than 4%) in six patients. After the exercise program, even though achieving similar or higher pressure-rate products, six patients improved their EF response, nine did not change, and two worsened. Of the five patients who improved their thallium images, one improved his EF response, two remained normal, and two did not change. One patient worsened both his thallium study and the EF response after the exercise program. Changes in thallium exercise images and the EF response to supine exercise occurred in our patients after an exercise program, but were not always concordant. Indeed, of five patients with exercise-induced ischemic ST changes before and after training, the EF response improved in three whereas myocardial perfusion was unchanged. Reasons for this lack of agreement are discussed, and have been considered in the planning of a randomized trial of the effects of an exercise program on myocardial perfusion and function

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  14. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  15. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  16. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  17. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  18. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  19. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  20. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  1. Exogenous Cortisol Administration; Effects on Risk Taking Behavior, Exercise Performance, and Physiological and Neurophysiological Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Caroline V; Immink, Maarten A; Marino, Frank E

    2016-01-01

    Rationale: Exogenous cortisol is a modulator of behavior related to increased motivated decision making (Putman et al., 2010), where risky choices yield potentially big reward. Making risk based judgments has been shown to be important to athletes in optimizing pacing during endurance events (Renfree et al., 2014; Micklewright et al., 2015). Objectives: Therefore, the aims of this study were to examine the effect of 50 mg exogenous cortisol on neurophysiological responses and risk taking behavior in nine healthy men. Further to this, to examine the effect of exogenous cortisol on exercise performance. Methods: Using a double blind counterbalanced design, cyclists completed a placebo (PLA), and a cortisol (COR) trial (50 mg cortisol), with drug ingestion at 0 min. Each trial consisted of a rest period from 0 to 60 min, followed by a risk taking behavior task, a 30 min time trial (TT) with 5 × 30 s sprints at the following time intervals; 5, 11, 17, 23, and 29 min. Salivary cortisol (SaCOR), Electroencephalography (EEG) and Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRs) were measured at 15, 30, 45, and 60 min post-ingestion. Glucose and lactate samples were taken at 0 and 60 min post-ingestion. During exercise, power output (PO), heart rate (HR), EEG, and NIRS were measured. SaCOR was measured 10 min post-exercise. Results: Cortisol increased risk taking behavior from baseline testing. This was in line with significant neurophysiological changes at rest and during exercise. At rest, SaCOR levels were higher ( P exogenous cortisol on exercise performance. These results are in line with previous research showing altered risk taking behavior following exogenous cortisol, however the altered behavior did not translate into changes in exercise performance.

  2. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  3. Exercise, weight loss and biomarkers for breast cancer risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gemert, W.A.M. van

    2015-01-01

    Background: Postmenopausal breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer in Western women. There are several known risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer of which few are lifestyle-related and, thereby, modifiable. These risk factors provide an opportunity for primary prevention. In this thesis,

  4. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  5. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  6. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  7. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  8. Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

    2018-04-15

    Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT IN EXERCISE: AN INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR EXERCISERS AND INSTRUCTORS

    OpenAIRE

    Gomes, Rui

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: The practice of physical activity is associated to psychological, physical and social benefits. However, in the general population sport practice is still very low and the levels of dropout are very significant (Dishman, 1994; “Global strategy on diet, physical activity and health”, 2004). So it becomes important to understand the factors that can cause these problems. This paper proposes two interview guides for exercisers and instructors that facilitate a deeper analysis of the ps...

  10. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  11. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  12. Influence of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase genotype, exercise and other risk factors on endothelial function in healthy individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pullin, Catherine H; Wilson, John F; Ashfield-Watt, Pauline A L; Clark, Zoë E; Whiting, Jenny M; Lewis, Malcolm J; McDowell, Ian F W

    2002-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease has a multifactorial aetiology that is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Endothelial dysfunction is a key event in the pathogenesis of vascular disease that occurs before structural vascular changes or clinical symptoms are evident. Conventional risk factors, for example hypertension and diabetes mellitus, are associated with endothelial dysfunction, but the influence of other putative risk factors is not clear. The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T genotype, a common polymorphism that induces hyperhomocysteinaemia, has been proposed as being a genetic risk factor for cardiovascular disease. A total of 126 healthy adults recruited by MTHFR C677T genotype (42 of each genotype, i.e. CC, CT and TT) underwent assessment of endothelial function. Brachial artery endothelium-dependent flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) was measured using high-resolution ultrasonic vessel "wall-tracking". Using multiple regression analysis, MTHFR genotype and 21 other subject and subject-lifestyle variables were investigated as potential predictors of endothelial function. FMD was influenced positively by frequency of aerobic exercise and by hormone replacement therapy, and negatively by increases in systolic blood pressure. MTHFR C677T genotype and the associated variation in plasma homocysteine levels did not influence FMD. Additionally, other factors, including plasma cholesterol and self-supplementation with either antioxidant vitamins or cod liver oil, showed no significant relationship with FMD, although these findings are compromised by the narrow range studied for cholesterol and the small number of subjects taking supplements. These observations have implications for risk factor management in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in healthy individuals.

  13. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  14. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  15. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  16. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  17. Effectiveness of exercise intervention and health promotion on cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged men: a protocol of a randomized controlled trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Although cardiovascular disease has decreased, there is still potential for prevention as obesity and diabetes increase. Exercise has a positive effect on many cardiovascular risk factors, and it can significantly reduce the components of metabolic syndrome. The main challenge with exercise in primary care is how to succeed in motivating the patients at risk to change and increase their exercise habits. The objective of this study is to modify the cardiovascular risk in middle-aged men, either through a health promotion intervention alone or combined with an exercise intervention. Methods/design During a two-year period we recruit 300 men aged from 35 to 45 years with elevated cardiovascular risk (> two traditional risk factors). The men are randomized into three arms: 1) a health promotion intervention alone, 2) both health promotion and exercise intervention, or 3) control with usual community care and delayed health promotion (these men receive the intervention after one year). The main outcome measures will be the existence of metabolic syndrome and physical activity frequency (times per week). The participants are assessed at baseline, and at 3, 6, and 12 months. The follow-up of the study will last 12 months. Discussion This pragmatic trial in primary health care aimed to assess the effect of a health promotion programme with or without exercise intervention on cardiovascular risk and physical activity in middle-aged men. The results of this study may help to plan the primary care interventions to further reduce cardiovascular mortality. The study was registered at the Controlled Trials ( http://www.controlled-trials.com). Trial number: ISRCTN80672011. The study received ethics approval from the Coordinating Ethics Committee at Helsinki University Hospital on 8 June 2009 (ref: 4/13/03/00/09). PMID:23398957

  18. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  19. Exercise during pregnancy and risk of gestational hypertensive disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Roman, Amanda; Berghella, Vincenzo

    2017-08-01

    Gestational hypertensive disorders, including gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, are one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of gestational hypertensive disorders. Electronic databases were searched from their inception to February 2017. Selection criteria included only randomized controlled trials of uncomplicated pregnant women assigned before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. The summary measures were reported as relative risk with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of gestational hypertensive disorders, defined as either gestational hypertension or preeclampsia. Seventeen trials, including 5075 pregnant women, were analyzed. Of them, seven contributed data to quantitative meta-analysis for the primary outcome. Women who were randomized in early pregnancy to aerobic exercise for about 30-60 min two to seven times per week had a significant lower incidence of gestational hypertensive disorders (5.9% vs. 8.5%; relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.83; seven studies, 2517 participants), specifically a lower incidence of gestational hypertension (2.5% vs. 4.6%; relative risk 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.40-0.74; 16 studies, 4641 participants) compared with controls. The incidence of preeclampsia (2.3% vs. 2.8%; relative risk 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.45-1.38; six studies, 2230 participants) was similar in both groups. The incidence of cesarean delivery was decreased by 16% in the exercise group. Aerobic exercise for about 30-60 min two to seven times per week during pregnancy, as compared with being more sedentary, is associated with a significantly reduced risk of gestational hypertensive disorders overall, gestational hypertension, and cesarean delivery. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  20. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  1. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  2. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Assessment of the impact of NUC accreditation exercise on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is a survey research aimed at determining the impact of National Universities Commission's accreditation exercise on personnel in the business education programmes of the universities in the South-east Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria. One research question and one null hypothesis guided the study. The population ...

  4. Adventures in Exercise Physiology: Enhancing Problem Solving and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    FitzPatrick, Kathleen A.

    2004-01-01

    I altered the format of an exercise physiology course from traditional lecture to emphasizing daily reading quizzes and group problem-solving activities. I used the SALGains evaluation to compare the two approaches and saw significant improvements in the evaluation ratings of students who were taught using the new format. Narrative responses…

  5. Urinary incontinence during pregnancy and postpartum. Associated risk factors and influence of pelvic floor exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Martin, Sergio; Pascual-Fernandez, Angela; Alvarez-Colomo, Cristina; Calvo-Gonzalez, Raul; Muñoz-Moreno, Marife; Cortiñas-Gonzalez, Jose Ramon

    2014-05-01

    To determine the prevalence of urinary incontinence (UI) before pregnancy, in the third trimester and postpartum. To analyze its influence on quality of life and associated potential risk factors and the efficacy of pelvic floor exercises. Prospective study in 413 pregnant women. The modified ICIQ-SF incontinence questionnaire was given to the pregnant women at the end of the third quarter. This questionnaire was administered by telephone at 3 and 6 months postpartum. The influence of several risk factors for UI in pregnancy and postpartum were analyzed. Patients with persistent UI at 6 months postpartum were trained to do pelvic floor exercises. Patients with UI before pregnancy were excluded from the study. UI in the third trimester was 31%. Analyzed risk factors did not condition a higher percentage of UI. Prevalence of UI was 11.3% at 3 months postpartum and 6.9% at 6 months. 70% of the incontinent patients already had it during pregnancy and it appeared de novo post-delivery in 30% of the patients. Prevalence of UI after delivery was higher in women with UI in pregnancy and lower in caesarean cases. Most women improved with pelvic floor exercises. Analysed risk factors did not significantly increase UI in pregnancy. Prevalence of UI after delivery is higher in women with UI in pregnancy and lower in caesarean cases. Postpartum pelvic floor exercises for three months in patients with persistent stress UI at 6 months postpartum clearly improved the degree of continence.

  6. Exposing Students to the Potential and Risks of Stakeholder Engagement when Teaching Sustainability: A Classroom Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Eva; Kearins, Kate

    2007-01-01

    In-class, stakeholder negotiation exercises are proposed as a means of students experiencing and reflecting critically on the potential and the risks of an increasingly popular mechanism for advancing sustainability--stakeholder engagement. This article reviews the theoretical framework for stakeholder engagement and for an issue-based rather than…

  7. Leisure time physical exercise during pregnancy and the risk of miscarriage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, M; Jørgensen, T; Jensen, M L

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between leisure time physical exercise during pregnancy and the risk of miscarriage. DESIGN: Prospective study with elements of retrospective data collection. SETTING: Denmark 1996-2002. POPULATION: A total of 92,671 pregnant women enrolled in the Danish...

  8. Risk factors for proximal sesamoid bone fractures associated with exercise history and horseshoe characteristics in Thoroughbred racehorses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthenill, Lucy A; Stover, Susan M; Gardner, Ian A; Hill, Ashley E

    2007-07-01

    To assess individual and combined associations of high-speed exercise and horseshoe characteristics with risk of forelimb proximal sesamoid bone fractures and proximal sesamoid bone midbody fractures in Thoroughbred racehorses. 269 deceased Thoroughbred racehorses. A case-control study design was used to compare 121 horses with a fracture of at least 1 of 4 forelimb proximal sesamoid bones (75 horses had a midbody fracture) and 148 horses without a forelimb proximal sesamoid bone fracture. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate potential risk factors for association with proximal sesamoid bone fracture. Compared with horses that died without proximal sesamoid bone fractures, horses that died with proximal sesamoid bone fractures were more likely to be sexually intact males, spend more time in active trainingand racing, complete more events, train and race longer since their last layup, have higher exercise intensities during the 12 months prior to death, and have greater cumulative distances for their career. Horses with proximal sesamoid bone midbody fractures were more likely to be sexually intact males, train and race longer since their last layup, and have higher exercise intensities during the 12 months prior to death. Limitingexercise intensity and the continuous time spent in activity duringa horse's career may decrease the frequency of forelimb proximal sesamoid bone fractures in Thoroughbred horses.

  9. Exercise echocardiography for the assessment of pulmonary hypertension in systemic sclerosis: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, Rui; Serra, Sara; Martins, Rui; Teixeira, Rogério; Castro, Graça; Salvador, Maria João; Pereira da Silva, José António; Santos, Lèlita; Monteiro, Pedro; Pêgo, Mariano

    2016-07-02

    Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) complicates the course of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and is associated with poor prognosis. The elevation of systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (sPAP) during exercise in patients with SSc with normal resting haemodynamics may anticipate the development of PAH. Exercise echocardiography (ExEcho) has been proposed as a useful technique to identify exercise-induced increases in sPAP, but it is unclear how to clinically interpret these findings. In this systematic review, we summarize the available evidence on the role of exercise echocardiography to estimate exercise-induced elevations in pulmonary and left heart filling pressures in patients with systemic sclerosis. We conducted a systematic review of the literature using MEDLINE, Cochrane Library and Web of Knowledge, using the vocabulary terms: ('systemic sclerosis' OR 'scleroderma') AND ('exercise echocardiography') AND ('pulmonary hypertension'). Studies including patients with SSc without a prior diagnosis of PAH, and subjected to exercise echocardiography were included. All searches were limited to English and were augmented by review of bibliographic references from the included studies. The quality of evidence was assessed by the Effective Public Health Practice Project system. We identified 15 studies enrolling 1242 patients, who were mostly middle-aged and female. Several exercise methods were used (cycloergometer, treadmill and Master's two step), with different protocols and positions (supine, semi-supine, upright); definition of a positive test also varied widely. Resting estimated sPAP levels varied from 18 to 35 mm Hg, all in the normal range. The weighted means for estimated sPAP were 22.2 ± 2.9 mmHg at rest and 43.0 ± 4.3 mmHg on exercise; more than half of the studies reported mean exercise sPAP ≥40 mmHg. The assessment of left ventricular diastolic function on peak exercise was reported in a minority of studies; however, when assessed, surrogate

  10. Jumping combined exercise programs reduce fall risk and improve balance and life quality of elderly people who live in a long-term care facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, E; Dincer, U; Kiralp, M Z; Cakar, D B; Durmus, O; Kilac, H; Soydan, F C; Sevinc, S; Alper, C

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether regular combined exercise program, which consists strength, stretching and aerobic exercises and additional jumping training, improve balance, fall risk, quality of life and depression status of older people living in a residential care. A total of 168 residents who live in a long term care facility were screened. The trial began with 78 eligible participants and they were randomly grouped as combined exercises program (COM) group that includes stretching, strength and aerobic exercises, and COM plus jumping (COMpJ) group. 66 of the participants finished the trial. The groups were convened three times a week for six weeks. Each group had a warm-up, effective training and a cooling down periods. The total exercising time was no longer than 45 minutes in each group. Berg balance test and Biodex Balance System for the assessment of the dynamic balance and fall risk, short form 36 (SF 36) for the health related quality of life and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) for evaluation of the depression status were used. The balance improvement and fall risk reduction were observed in both of the groups at the end of the trial; however, the improvements were statistically better in jumping combined group. Also health related quality of life improved in both groups. Regular group exercise in a long term care facility have several beneficial effects on the elderly residents in regard to balance improvement, fall risk reduction and quality of life. The addition of jumping to strength, stretching and aerobic exercises provides important contributions to balance improvement and fall risk reduction.

  11. Leisure-time exercise, physical activity during work and commuting, and risk of metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwahara, Keisuke; Honda, Toru; Nakagawa, Tohru; Yamamoto, Shuichiro; Akter, Shamima; Hayashi, Takeshi; Mizoue, Tetsuya

    2016-09-01

    Data are limited regarding effect of intensity of leisure-time physical activity on metabolic syndrome. Furthermore, no prospective data are available regarding effect of occupational and commuting physical activity on metabolic syndrome. We compared metabolic syndrome risk by intensity level of leisure-time exercise and by occupational and commuting physical activity in Japanese workers. We followed 22,383 participants, aged 30-64 years, without metabolic syndrome until 2014 March (maximum, 5 years of follow-up). Physical activity was self-reported. Metabolic syndrome was defined by the Joint Statement criteria. We used Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of metabolic syndrome. During a mean follow-up of 4.1 years, 5361 workers developed metabolic syndrome. After adjustment for covariates, compared with engaging in no exercise, the HRs (95 % CIs) for metabolic equivalent hours of exercise per week were 0.99 (0.90, 1.08), 0.99 (0.90, 1.10), and 0.95 (0.83, 1.08), respectively, among individuals engaging in moderate-intensity exercise alone; 0.93 (0.75, 1.14), 0.81 (0.64, 1.02), and 0.84 (0.66, 1.06), among individuals engaging in vigorous-intensity exercise alone; and 0.90 (0.70, 1.17), 0.74 (0.62, 0.89), and 0.81 (0.69, 0.96) among individuals engaging in the two intensities. Higher occupational physical activity was weakly but significantly associated with lower risk of metabolic syndrome. Walking to and from work was not associated with metabolic syndrome. Vigorous-intensity exercise alone or vigorous-intensity combined with moderate-intensity exercise and worksite intervention for physical activity may help prevent metabolic syndrome for Japanese workers.

  12. Effect of one course exercise with consumption vitamin E on antioxidant status and cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Naghizadeh

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The effect of different physical activity with consumption supplements on the function of body vital systems and decrease free radicals effects is not well known during exercise. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of aerobics exercise (HRmax: 60-65% with vitamin E on antioxidant status and oxidative stress and cardiovascular risk factors in active male students. Materials and Methods: 45 normal active male students were randomly divided in to three groups: Exp 1(N=15, mean±SD age=23.8±1.6; Exp 2(N=15, mean±SD age=22.4±2.3 and control III (N=15, mean±SD age=22.9±1.8. The treatment for exercise-supplement included moderate aerobic exercise (HRmax 60-65% with consumption a 500 mg vitamin E tablet. The treatment for exercise-placebo included exercise above along with a placebo tablet consumed for 8 weeks, 3 sessions per week and session lasted 45 minutes. The variables in the experiment were measured in two stages in the standardized environment of a laboratory. This research performed the Islamic Azad university branch of Tabriz. Results: The results showed that, there was a significant statistical difference between MAD (p<0.02, CP (p<0.04, TAC (p<0.03, LDL (p<0.03 and Vo2max (p<0.03 in the three groups. Discussion: In summery performing moderate aerobic exercise (HRmax 60-65% with consumption Vitamin E may decrease membrane damage and lipid peroxidation, and cardiovascular risk factors

  13. The Development of Three Questionnaires to Assess Beliefs about Green Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flowers, Elliott P; Freeman, Paul; Gladwell, Valerie F

    2017-10-04

    Green exercise is physical activity that takes place in the presence of natural environments. Despite the promising evidence of the benefits, little is known about how individuals' thoughts and feelings influence participation in green exercise and subsequent outcomes. The aim of the current research was to develop questionnaires using the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a framework that could both directly and indirectly assess attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behaviour control, along with intention toward green exercise. Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed that the indirect, direct, and intention measures all had good overall model fits when tested on a refinement (n = 253) and validation (n = 230) sample. The questionnaires will contribute towards helping to better understanding individuals' beliefs about green exercise, how these influence behaviour, and ultimately to enable the development of effective interventions promoting green exercise.

  14. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  15. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  16. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  17. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  18. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  19. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  20. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  1. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  2. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  3. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  4. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  5. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  6. Fisheries and Oceans Canada climate change risk assessment initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalpe, R. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper provided an overview of an initiative undertaken by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Canada to assess the risks associated with climate change on Canada's waterways and aquatic resources over the next 10 to 20 years. It discussed the risk associated with changes in water temperature and level in increasing the vulnerability of fish stocks and ecosystems. A decrease in water levels is also an issue as it will render current infrastructure ineffective. Storm surges can also have an impact on coastal community infrastructure. The purpose of the assessment was to provide DFO management with a structured understanding of the major climate change factors that pose risks to DFO's operations and to establish priorities in identifying appropriate risk mitigation responses. The presentation discussed the different stages of the initiative (planning, identification and evaluation of risk, validation, and reporting), its' challenges and benefits, as well as lessons learned from this exercises. Lessons learned from the project are as follows: get senior level buy-in from the outset; engage the right people; make it easy for others to be engaged; validate results and risk management response; be ready for surprises; and build in some flexibility to the process. figs.

  7. Prognostic value of exercise echocardiography: validation of a new risk index combining echocardiographic, treadmill, and exercise electrocardiographic parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, Wojciech; Rivera, Jose M; Khoury, Alexander F; Basu, Abhijeet G; Perez-Verdia, Alejandro; Marks, Gary F; Chang, Su Min; Olmos, Leopoldo; Quiñones, Miguel A; Zoghbi, William A

    2003-04-01

    Exercise (Ex) echocardiography has been shown to have significant prognostic power, independent of other known predictors of risk from an Ex stress test. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a risk index, incorporating echocardiographic and conventional Ex variables, for a more comprehensive risk stratification and identification of a very low-risk group. Two consecutive, mutually exclusive populations referred for treadmill Ex echocardiography with the Bruce protocol were investigated: hypothesis-generating (388 patients; 268 males; age 55 +/- 13 years) and hypothesis-testing (105 patients; 61 males age: 54 +/- 14 years).Cardiac events included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, late revascularization (>90 days), hospital admission for unstable angina, and admission for heart failure. Mean follow-up in the hypothesis-generating population was 3.1 years. There were 38 cardiac events. Independent predictors of events by multivariate analysis were: Ex wall motion score index (odds ratio [OR] = 2.77/Unit; P or = 1 mm (OR = 2.84; P =.002); and treadmill time (OR = 0.87/min; P =.037). A risk index was generated on the basis of the multivariate Cox regression model as: risk index = 1.02 (Ex wall motion score index) + 1.04 (S-T change) - 0.14 (treadmill time). The validity of this index was tested in the hypothesis-testing population. Event rates at 3 years were lowest (0%) in the lower quartile of risk index (-1.22 to -0.47), highest (29.6%) in the upper quartile (+0.66 to +2.02), and intermediate (19.2% to 15.3%) in the intermediate quartiles. The OR of the risk index for predicting cardiac events was 2.94/Unit ([95% confidence interval: 1.4 to 6.2]; P =.0043). Echocardiographic and Ex parameters are independent powerful predictors of cardiac events after treadmill stress testing. A risk index can be derived with these parameters for a more comprehensive risk stratification with Ex echocardiography.

  8. Cerebral hemodynamics of the aging brain: risk of Alzheimer disease and benefit of aerobic exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi eTarumi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer disease (AD and cerebrovascular disease often coexist with advanced age. Mounting evidence indicates that the presence of vascular disease and its risk factors increase the risk of AD, suggesting a potential overlap of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. In particular, atherosclerosis, endothelial dysfunction, and stiffening of central elastic arteries have been shown to associate with AD. Currently, there are no effective treatments for the cure and prevention of AD. Vascular risk factors are modifiable via either pharmacological or lifestyle intervention. In this regard, habitual aerobic exercise is increasingly recognized for its benefits on brain structure and cognitive function. Considering the well-established benefits of regular aerobic exercise on vascular health, exercise-related improvements in brain structure and cognitive function may be mediated by vascular adaptations. In this review, we will present the current evidence for the physiological mechanisms by which vascular health alters the structural and functional integrity of the aging brain and how improvements in vascular health, via regular aerobic exercise, potentially benefits cognitive function.

  9. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  11. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  12. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  14. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  15. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  16. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  17. Verification, Validation and Credibility Assessment of a Computational Model of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, C. R.; Humphreys, B. T.; Mulugeta, L.

    2014-01-01

    The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) is the resistive exercise device used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to mitigate bone loss and muscle atrophy due to extended exposure to microgravity (micro g). The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) has developed a multi-body dynamics model of biomechanics models for use in spaceflight exercise physiology research and operations. In an effort to advance model maturity and credibility of the ARED model, the DAP performed verification, validation and credibility (VV and C) assessment of the analyses of the model in accordance to NASA-STD-7009 'Standards for Models and Simulations'.

  18. Development of risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, S. K.; Park, S. J.; Park, B. R.; Kim, M. R.; Choi, C. J.

    2001-01-01

    It has been assessed that the capital cost for future nuclear power plants needs to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors such as KNGR and System 80+. Such reduction in the capital cost will require a fundamental re-evaluation of the industry standards and regulatory basis under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. The objective of this study is to develop the risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology for future nuclear power plants. In order to meet this objective, the design simplification method is developed and RIA design methodology exercised for conceptual system. For the methodology verification, simplified conceptual ECCS and feedwater system are developed, then LOCA sensitivity analyses and agressive secondary cooldown analyses for these systems are performed. In addition, the probability safety assessment (PSA) model for LOCA is developed and the validation of RIA design methodology is demonstrated

  19. Exercise and coronary heart disease risk markers in South Asian and European men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjunan, Saravana Pillai; Bishop, Nicolette Claire; Reischak-Oliveira, Alvaro; Stensel, David John

    2013-07-01

    South Asians have a higher-than-average risk of CHD. The reasons for this are unclear, but physical inactivity and/or poor responsiveness to exercise may play a role. This study compared the effect of prior exercise on postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG), glucose, insulin, interleukin-6, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 concentrations in South Asian and European men. Ten healthy South Asian men (i.e., nine Indian men and one Pakistani man) and 10 healthy European men age 20 to 28 yr completed two 2-d trials (exercise and control) in a randomized crossover design. On the afternoon of day 1 of the exercise trial, participants ran on a treadmill for 60 min at approximately 70% of maximal oxygen uptake. Participants rested on day 1 of the control trial. On day 2 of both trials, participants rested and consumed high-fat (57% of energy content) test meals for breakfast (0 h) and lunch (4 h). Fourteen venous blood samples were collected from a cannula between 0 and 9 h for metabolic measurements. Three-way ANOVA identified higher (P < 0.05) postprandial TAG and insulin concentrations in South Asian versus European men. Exercise lowered postprandial TAG and interleukin-6 and elevated soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 concentrations. An interaction effect indicated a greater decrease (22% vs 10%) in TAG area under the concentration versus time curve after exercise in South Asian than in European men. Postprandial TAG and insulin responses to high-fat meals were elevated in these South Asian men, but acute exercise was equally, if not more, effective for reducing postprandial lipemia in South Asian than in European men.

  20. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  1. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  4. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  6. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  7. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  8. Effects of acute and chronic exercise in patients with essential hypertension: benefits and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkaliagkousi, Eugenia; Gavriilaki, Eleni; Douma, Stella

    2015-04-01

    The importance of regular physical activity in essential hypertension has been extensively investigated over the last decades and has emerged as a major modifiable factor contributing to optimal blood pressure control. Aerobic exercise exerts its beneficial effects on the cardiovascular system by promoting traditional cardiovascular risk factor regulation, as well as by favorably regulating sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity, molecular effects, cardiac, and vascular function. Benefits of resistance exercise need further validation. On the other hand, acute exercise is now an established trigger of acute cardiac events. A number of possible pathophysiological links have been proposed, including SNS, vascular function, coagulation, fibrinolysis, and platelet function. In order to fully interpret this knowledge into clinical practice, we need to better understand the role of exercise intensity and duration in this pathophysiological cascade and in special populations. Further studies in hypertensive patients are also warranted in order to clarify the possibly favorable effect of antihypertensive treatment on exercise-induced effects. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2014. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  10. Distance education course on spatial multi-hazard risk assessment, using Open Source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, C. J.; Frigerio, S.

    2009-04-01

    As part of the capacity building activities of the United Nations University - ITC School on Disaster Geo-Information Management (UNU-ITC DGIM) the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) has developed a distance education course on the application of Geographic Information Systems for multi-hazard risk assessment. This course is designed for academic staff, as well as for professionals working in (non-) governmental organizations where knowledge of disaster risk management is essential. The course guides the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. The courses consists of eight modules, each with a guide book explaining the theoretical background, and guiding the participants through spatial data requirements for risk assessment, hazard assessment procedures, generation of elements at risk databases, vulnerability assessment, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, risk evaluation and risk reduction. Linked to the theory is a large set of exercises, with exercise descriptions, answer sheets, demos and GIS data. The exercises deal with four different types of hazards: earthquakes, flooding, technological hazards, and landslides. One important consideration in designing the course is that people from developing countries should not be restricted in using it due to financial burdens for software acquisition. Therefore the aim was to use Open Source software as a basis. The GIS exercises are written for the ILWIS software. All exercises have also been integrated into a WebGIS, using the Open source software CartoWeb (based on GNU License). It is modular and customizable thanks to its object-oriented architecture and based on a hierarchical structure (to manage and organize every package of information of every step required in risk assessment). Different switches for every component of the risk assessment

  11. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  12. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  13. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  14. Reliability of a Simple Physical Therapist Screening Tool to Assess Errors during Resistance Exercises for Musculoskeletal Pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kenneth Jay; Sundstrup, E.; Andersen, L. L.

    2014-01-01

    The main objective was to investigate the intra- and intertester reliability of a simple screening tool assessing errors in exercise execution by visual observation. 38 participants with no previous resistance exercise experience practiced for two weeks four typical upper limb exercises using ela...

  15. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  17. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  18. Assessing and Managing Knowledge Loss Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermarkar, Fred

    2013-01-01

    Summary: • Sustaining Design Basis Knowledge is a strategic need for long term safe and reliable operation; • Utilities need to manage knowledge in a systematic manner, based on identifying areas of risk, developing and implementing plans to mitigate the risk, and exercising oversight of those plans; • Approaches will differ depending upon organizational functions and needs; • Individual utility efforts are not sufficient: they need to be complemented by a larger scale infrastructure in the academic and research communities; • The Canadian nuclear industry has been collaborating to actively support and expand the academic infrastructure to sustain design basis knowledge; • KM initiatives require constant nurturing for sustainability; • Internationally recognized guidance on Characteristics, Attributes and Best Practices for governmental, industrial and academic contributions to KM is important to sustainability

  19. EXERCISES THAT FACILITATE OPTIMAL HAMSTRING AND QUADRICEPS CO-ACTIVATION TO HELP DECREASE ACL INJURY RISK IN HEALTHY FEMALES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedinsky, Rachel; Baker, Lindsey; Imbus, Samuel; Bowman, Melissa

    2017-01-01

    Background Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is common among females due to many anatomic, hormonal, and neuromuscular risk factors. One modifiable risk factor that places females at increased risk of ACL injury is a poor hamstrings: quadriceps (H:Q) co-activation ratio, which should be 0.6 or greater in order to decrease the stress placed on the ACL. Exercises that produce more quadriceps dominant muscle activation can add to the tension placed upon the ACL, potentially increasing the risk of ACL injury. Hypothesis/Purpose The purpose of this systematic review was to compare quadriceps and hamstring muscle activation during common closed kinetic chain therapeutic exercises in healthy female knees to determine what exercises are able to produce adequate H:Q co-activation ratios. Study Design Systematic Review Methods Multiple online databases were systematically searched and screened for inclusion. Eight articles were identified for inclusion. Data on mean electromyography (EMG) activation of both quadriceps and hamstring muscles, % maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC), and H:Q co-activation ratios were extracted from the studies. Quality assessment was performed on all included studies. Results Exercises analyzed in the studies included variations of the double leg squat, variations of the single leg squat, lateral step-up, Fitter, Stairmaster® (Core Health and Fitness, Vancouver, WA), and slide board. All exercises, except the squat machine with posterior support at the level of the scapula and feet placed 50 cm in front of the hips, produced higher quadriceps muscle activation compared to hamstring muscle activation. Conclusion Overall, two leg squats demonstrate poor H:Q co-activation ratios. Single leg exercises, when performed between 30 and 90 degrees of knee flexion, produce adequate H:Q ratios, thereby potentially reducing the risk of tensile stress on the ACL and ACL injury. Level of Evidence 2a- Systematic Review of Cohort Studies PMID

  20. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  1. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  2. An Assessment of Exercise Tolerance in Normobaric Hypoxia of Patients with Diabetes Mellitus Type 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Głuchowska Barbara

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Physical activity is an integral part of the treatment of diabetes. The aim of the study was to assess aerobic capacity and cardiovascular-respiratory reactions to a single physical exercise with gradually increasing intensity in normobaric hypoxia in patients with Type 1 diabetes. Methods. The study was conducted on a sample of adults with Type 1 diabetes (GT1D, n = 13 and a randomly chosen healthy control (GK, n = 15. The study participants performed a progressive exercise test to exhaustion in normoxia (FiO2 ~ 20.90% and 7 days later in normobaric hypoxia (FiO2 ~ 15.14%. At rest, during exercise, and after completion of the test blood was drawn and physiological indicators were monitored. Results. Two-way ANOVA revealed a significant effect of hypoxia and physical exercise on blood glucose concentrations (F = 6.1 p < 0.01. In GT1D , lower glucose levels were observed in normobaric hypoxia compared with baseline and post-exercise levels in normoxia (p < 0.05. A tendency to increased maximal oxygen uptake and significantly higher minute pulmonary ventilation was observed in both groups in response to exercise and hypoxia. Conclusions. Physical activity and hypoxia may effectively control glucose homeostasis and increase cardiorespiratory adaptation to exercise in Type 1 diabetics.

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  4. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  5. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  6. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Developing an Objective Structured Clinical Examination to Assess Work-Integrated Learning in Exercise Physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, Fiona; Moore, Keri; Mildon, Sally; Jones, Philip

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to develop a valid method to assess the key competencies of the exercise physiology profession acquired through work-integrated learning (WIL). In order to develop a competency-based assessment, the key professional tasks needed to be identified and the test designed so students' competency in different tasks and settings could be…

  11. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  12. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  13. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  15. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  16. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  17. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  18. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  19. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  20. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  1. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  2. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  3. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  4. Mean Blood Pressure Assessment during Post-Exercise: Result from Two Different Methods of Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianmarco Sainas, Raffaele Milia, Girolamo Palazzolo, Gianfranco Ibba, Elisabetta Marongiu, Silvana Roberto, Virginia Pinna, Giovanna Ghiani, Filippo Tocco, Antonio Crisafulli

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available At rest the proportion between systolic and diastolic periods of the cardiac cycle is about 1/3 and 2/3 respectively. Therefore, mean blood pressure (MBP is usually calculated with a standard formula (SF as follows: MBP = diastolic blood pressure (DBP + 1/3 [systolic blood pressure (SBP – DBP]. However, during exercise this proportion is lost because of tachycardia, which shortens diastole more than systole. We analysed the difference in MBP calculation between the SF and a corrected formula (CF which takes into account changes in the diastolic and systolic periods caused by exercise-induced tachycardia. Our hypothesis was that the SF potentially induce a systematic error in MBP assessment during recovery after exercise. Ten healthy males underwent two exercise-recovery tests on a cycle-ergometer at mild-moderate and moderate-heavy workloads. Hemodynamics and MBP were monitored for 30 minutes after exercise bouts. The main result was that the SF on average underestimated MBP by –4.1 mmHg with respect to the CF. Moreover, in the period immediately after exercise, when sustained tachycardia occurred, the difference between SF and CF was large (in the order of -20-30 mmHg. Likewise, a systematic error in systemic vascular resistance assessment was present. It was concluded that the SF introduces a substantial error in MBP estimation in the period immediately following effort. This equation should not be used in this situation.

  5. High self-perceived exercise exertion before bedtime is associated with greater objectively assessed sleep efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Serge; Kalak, Nadeem; Gerber, Markus; Kirov, Roumen; Pühse, Uwe; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith

    2014-09-01

    To assess the association between self-perceived exercise exertion before bedtime and objectively measured sleep. Fifty-two regularly exercising young adults (mean age, 19.70 years; 54% females) underwent sleep electroencephalographic recordings 1.5 h after completing moderate to vigorous exercise in the evening. Before sleeping, participants answered questions regarding degree of exertion of the exercise undertaken. Greater self-perceived exertion before bedtime was associated with higher objectively assessed sleep efficiency (r = 0.69, P associated with more deep sleep, shortened sleep onset time, fewer awakenings after sleep onset, and shorter wake duration after sleep onset. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that objective sleep efficiency was predicted by increased exercise exertion, shortened sleep onset time, increased deep sleep, and decreased light sleep. Against expectations and general recommendations for sleep hygiene, high self-perceived exercise exertion before bedtime was associated with better sleep patterns in a sample of healthy young adults. Further studies should also focus on elderly adults and adults suffering from insomnia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Relationship between functional assessments and exercise-related changes during static balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, Daniel R; Harrison, Blain C; Hertel, Jay; Hart, Joseph M

    2013-04-01

    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is currently used for injury risk prediction, although researchers have not studied its relationships to injury risk factors. The purpose of this study was to compare FMS scores at rest to changes in static balance after exercise. Second, we examined FMS scores pre and post exercise. Twenty-five participants performed center of pressure (COP) measures and FMS testing. An acclimatization session for the FMS occurred on day 1, whereas day 2 involved COP measures for static balance and FMS testing before and after a 36-minute exercise protocol. Center of pressure standard deviations in the frontal (COPML-SD) and sagittal (COPAP-SD) planes, center of pressure velocity (COP-Velocity), center of pressure area (COP-Area), and FMS scores were recorded. No significant correlations occurred between preexercise FMS scores and change in COP measures. Preexercise hurdle step scores related to preexercise COPML-SD (p = -0.46), COPAP-SD (p = -0.43), and COP-Area (p = -0.50). Preexercise in-line lunge scores related to postexercise COPAP-SD (p = -0.44) and COP-Velocity (p = -0.39), whereas preexercise active straight leg raise (ASLR) scores related to postexercise COPML-SD (p = -0.46). Functional Movement Screen scores were not related to changes in static balance after exercise and may therefore not be useful to predict who will experience greater static balance deficits after exercise. Additionally, FMS scores did not differ before and after exercise. Clinicians aiming to identify injury risk from a general static balance standpoint may find the hurdle step, in-line lunge, and ASLR useful. Clinicians aiming to identify injury risk from a change in static balance standpoint may need to explore other screening tools.

  7. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  9. The Impact of Exercise on Suicide Risk: Examining Pathways through Depression, PTSD, and Sleep in an Inpatient Sample of Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Collin L.; Babson, Kimberly A.; Bonn-Miller, Marcel O.; Souter, Tasha; Vannoy, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Suicide has a large public health impact. Although effective interventions exist, the many people at risk for suicide cannot access these interventions. Exercise interventions hold promise in terms of reducing suicide because of their ease of implementation. While exercise reduces depression, and reductions in depressive symptoms are linked to…

  10. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  11. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  12. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  13. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  14. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  15. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  16. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  17. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  18. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  19. The roles of exercise and fall risk reduction in the prevention of osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, N K; White, C P; Eisman, J A

    1998-06-01

    In summary, the optimal model for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures includes maximization and maintenance of bone strength and minimization of trauma. Numerous determinants of each have been identified, but further work to develop preventative strategies based on these determinants remains to be undertaken. Physical activity is a determinant of peak BMD. There also is evidence that activity during growth modulates the external geometry and trabecular architecture, potentially enhancing skeletal strength, while during the adult years activity may reduce age-related bone loss. The magnitude of the effect of a 7% to 8% increase in peak BMD, if maintained through the adult years, could translate to a 1.5-fold reduction in fracture risk. Moreover, in the older population, appropriate forms of exercise could reduce the risk of falling and, thus, further reduce fracture risk. These data must be considered as preliminary in view of the paucity of long-term fracture outcome data from randomized clinical trials. However, current information suggests that the optimal form of exercise to achieve these objectives may vary through life. Vigorous physical activity (including weight-bearing, resistance, and impact components) during childhood may maximize peak BMD. This type of activity seems optimal through the young adult years, but as inevitable age-related degeneration occurs, activity modification to limit the impact component of exercise may become necessary. In the elderly, progressive strength training has been demonstrated to be a safe and effective form of exercise that reduces risk factors for falling and may also enhance BMD. In the frail elderly, activity to improve balance and confidence also may be valuable. Group activities such as Tai Chi may be cost-effective. Precise prescriptions must await the outcome of well-designed, controlled longitudinal studies that include fracture as an outcome. However, increased physical activity seems to be a sensible

  20. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  3. Balance and gait performance after maximal and submaximal endurance exercise in seniors: is there a higher fall-risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donath, Lars; Zahner, Lukas; Roth, Ralf; Fricker, Livia; Cordes, Mareike; Hanssen, Henner; Schmidt-Trucksäss, Arno; Faude, Oliver

    2013-03-01

    Impaired balance and gait performance increase fall-risk in seniors. Acute effects of different exercise bouts on gait and balance were not yet addressed. Therefore, 19 healthy seniors (10 women, 9 men, age: 64.6 ± 3.2 years) were examined on 3 days. After exhaustive treadmill testing, participants randomly completed a 2-km treadmill walking test (76 ± 8 % VO(2max)) and a resting control condition. Standing balance performance (SBALP) was assessed by single limb-eyes opened (SLEO) and double limb-eyes closed (DLEC) stance. Gait parameters were collected at comfortable walking velocity. A condition × time interaction of center of pressure path length (COP(path)) was observed for both balance tasks (p fall-risk in seniors. Balance changes upon 2-km testing might be of minor relevance. Gait is not affected during single task walking at given velocities.

  4. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  5. Incident diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease risk in exercising hypercholesterolemic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T; Franklin, Barry A

    2015-11-15

    Exercise may be an important treatment for hypercholesterolemic patients, particularly in statin users who are at increased diabetes risk. We therefore used Cox proportional hazard analyses to compare running and walking dose (metabolic equivalent hours/day [MET-h/d]) to diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in hypercholesterolemic patients. There were 60 diabetic- and 373 CVD-related deaths during a 10.1-year mortality surveillance of 6,688 hypercholesterolemic patients. In addition, there were 177 incident nonfatal diabetes, 815 incident nonfatal hypertensions, and 323 incident nonfatal CVD events during a 6.4-year follow-up of 6,971 hypercholesterolemic patients who supplied follow-up questionnaires. Fatal and nonfatal diabetes risk decreased 26% (p = 0.002) and 19% (p ≤0.0001) per MET-h/d, respectively, and relative to hypertension risk decreased 4% (p = 0.01) per MET-h/d, and relative to diabetes, hypertension, and CVD risk in hypercholesterolemic patients and should more than compensate for the purported 9% increase in diabetes risk from statin use. By preventing morbidity and mortality for a specific existing medical condition, some exercise expenses may qualify for flexible spending account expenditures in hypercholesterolemic patients when prescribed by a physician. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Rates and Risks for Running and Exercise Injuries: Studies in Three Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Steven N.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Reports on the results of three epidemiologic studies of orthopedic running and exercise injuries in exercisers present information regarding relationships between type of injury and participant age, gender, exercise level, exercise surface, and physical fitness. (Author/CB)

  7. Effects of exercise rehabilitation on cardiac electrical instability assessed by T-wave alternans during ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring in coronary artery disease patients without and with diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenttä, Tuomas; Tulppo, Mikko P; Nearing, Bruce D; Karjalainen, Jaana J; Hautala, Arto J; Kiviniemi, Antti M; Huikuri, Heikki V; Verrier, Richard L

    2014-09-15

    Effects of exercise rehabilitation on electrocardiographic markers of risk for sudden cardiac death have not been adequately studied. We examined effects of controlled exercise training on T-wave alternans (TWA) in 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiogram recordings in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) without and with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Consecutive patients with angiographically confirmed CAD were recruited to join the ARTEMIS (Innovation to Reduce Cardiovascular Complications of Diabetes at the Intersection) study. Exercise (n = 65) and control groups (n = 65) were matched on age, sex, DM, and previous myocardial infarction. Ambulatory electrocardiograms were recorded before and after a 2-year training period. TWA was assessed using time domain-modified moving average method by an investigator blinded to patients' clinical status. Average TWA values decreased in the rehabilitation group but not in control patients (rehabilitation [mean ± SEM]: 52.8 ± 1.7 μV vs 48.7 ± 1.5 μV, p exercise versus 10% (n = 2 of 20) of controls (p = 0.020). In CAD patients, 30% (n = 8 of 27) of positive TWA cases were converted with exercise versus 4% (n = 1 of 28) of controls (p = 0.012). In conclusion, this is the first report of the effectiveness of exercise rehabilitation to reduce TWA, a marker of sudden cardiac death risk, in patients with stable CAD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Leisure-time physical activity and breast cancer risk by hormone receptor status: effective life periods and exercise intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Reiko; Iwasaki, Motoki; Kasuga, Yoshio; Yokoyama, Shiro; Onuma, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Hideki; Kusama, Ritsu; Shimazu, Taichi; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2010-11-01

    Physical activity may decrease breast cancer risk. However, it is unclear what intensity of exercise and during which life periods this effect on decreasing risk is efficiently expressed, and whether the associations differ by the estrogen-/progesterone- receptor (ER/PR) status of tumors. We investigated associations between age- and intensity-specific leisure-time physical activity and ER/PR-defined breast cancer risk. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study in Nagano, Japan. Subjects were 405 cases newly diagnosed (>99% known ER/PR) from 2001 to 2005, who were age-/area-matched with 405 controls. Activity was assessed with a self-reported questionnaire which considered intensity level (moderate and/or strenuous) at different ages (at 12 and 20 years, and in the previous 5 years). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using logistic regression. Strenuous but not moderate physical activity at age 12 was inversely associated with pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer risk across ER/PR subtypes [overall OR(≥ 5 days/week vs. none) = 0.24 (0.14-0.43)]. Moderate physical activity in the previous 5 years was significantly associated with a decrease in risk for postmenopausal ER + PR + tumors only [OR(≥ 1 day/week vs. none) = 0.35 (0.18-0.67)]. Strenuous activity in teens and moderate activity after menopause may contribute to a reduction in breast cancer risk.

  9. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  11. Physical exercises and risk of fall reduction in elderly: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diogo Homann

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Falls are associated with morbidity and mortality in older adults. The aim of this systematic review was to identify, describe and analyze the effects of physical exercise programs on the reduction of the risk of falls in adults above the age of 60. For this purpose, the Medline/Pubmed, Lilacs, and SciELO databases available at the site of the Latin American Center of Information in Health Sciences (BIREME were searched for articles comprising the period between 1999 and 2009 using the following keywords: accidental falls, elderly, exercise. A total of 385 publications were identified and 10 articles that met the criteria established in this study were selected. Strength and balance activities were the most frequent components of the exercise programs, in addition to coordination, flexibility and aerobic exercise. However, there was no clear information regarding the frequency, duration and intensity of the sessions. It was concluded that programs combining strength and balance components with other interventions, performed at least twice a week, and monitoring the participants for 3 to 6 months after intervention were the most effective in reducing and preventing falls in older adults. However, a more detailed presentation of some methodological aspects is necessary to permit the reproduction of these studies and the comparison of their results.

  12. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  13. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  14. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  15. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  16. Effect of resveratrol and aerobic exercise on some cardiovascular risk factors in rats with acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Jamali Qarakhanlou

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: Regular exercise and resveratrol supplementation is likely to be effective on cardiovascular risk factors and the combination of the two variables in the prevention of inflammation and will have a significant role in heart damage caused by myocardial infarction

  17. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  18. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  19. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  20. Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

  1. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  2. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  3. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  4. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  5. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  6. Changes in voluntary activation assessed by transcranial magnetic stimulation during prolonged cycling exercise.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Jubeau

    Full Text Available Maximal central motor drive is known to decrease during prolonged exercise although it remains to be determined whether a supraspinal deficit exists, and if so, when it appears. The purpose of this study was to evaluate corticospinal excitability and muscle voluntary activation before, during and after a 4-h cycling exercise. Ten healthy subjects performed three 80-min bouts on an ergocycle at 45% of their maximal aerobic power. Before exercise and immediately after each bout, neuromuscular function was evaluated in the quadriceps femoris muscles under isometric conditions. Transcranial magnetic stimulation was used to assess voluntary activation at the cortical level (VATMS, corticospinal excitability via motor-evoked potential (MEP and intracortical inhibition by cortical silent period (CSP. Electrical stimulation of the femoral nerve was used to measure voluntary activation at the peripheral level (VAFNES and muscle contractile properties. Maximal voluntary force was significantly reduced after the first bout (13 ± 9%, P<0.01 and was further decreased (25 ± 11%, P<0.001 at the end of exercise. CSP remained unchanged throughout the protocol. Rectus femoris and vastus lateralis but not vastus medialis MEP normalized to maximal M-wave amplitude significantly increased during cycling. Finally, significant decreases in both VATMS and VAFNES (∼ 8%, P<0.05 and ∼ 14%, P<0.001 post-exercise, respectively were observed. In conclusion, reductions in VAFNES after a prolonged cycling exercise are partly explained by a deficit at the cortical level accompanied by increased corticospinal excitability and unchanged intracortical inhibition. When comparing the present results with the literature, this study highlights that changes at the cortical and/or motoneuronal levels depend not only on the type of exercise (single-joint vs. whole-body but also on exercise intensity and/or duration.

  7. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  8. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  9. Effect of diet and physical exercise intervention programmes on coronary heart disease risk in smoking and non-smoking men in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näslund, G K; Fredrikson, M; Hellénius, M L; de Faire, U

    1996-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate differences between smokers and non-smokers in health behaviour, cardiovascular risk factors, coronary heart disease (CHD) risks, health knowledge, health attitudes, and compliance with a CHD prevention programme. DESIGN: Differences between smokers and non-smokers were studied via medical examinations, questionnaires, physical exercise activity logs, and food record sheets. Data were analysed using univariate and multivariate analyses. The five and 10 year CHD risks were assessed using the Framingham CHD risk estimate. SETTING: The Karolinska Hospital, Stockholm, and Sollentuna Primary Health Centre, Sollentuna, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: The analyses were based on 158 healthy smoking and non-smoking men aged 35-60 years with raised cardiovascular risk factors who enrolled in controlled, randomised six month diet and exercise programmes. MAIN RESULTS: Discriminant analysis suggested that smokers, compared with non-smokers, were characterised by a higher alcohol energy percent, lower HDL cholesterol concentration, lower systolic blood pressure, and a higher plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) value. Knowledge of the risk factors for CHD was not a discriminating factor. Both smokers and non-smokers increased the exercise taken, improved their diet, and lowered their CHD risk. Before, as well as after the intervention, smokers had a higher CHD risk than non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The best CHD prevention action that could be taken by smokers would of course be to quit smoking. Those who cannot stop should be encouraged to improve their diet and increase the amount of physical exercise they take in order to reduce the health hazards of their smoking behaviour. PMID:8762375

  10. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  11. Right and left ventricular ejection fraction at rest and during exercise assessed with radionuclide angiocardiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlstroem, J.A.

    1982-01-01

    Right (RVEF) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) assessed with radionuclide angiocardiography were compared to simultaneously obtained catheterization results at rest and during exercise in patients with pulmonary hypertension and ischemic heart disease. Blood pool imaging was performed with red blood cells (RBC) labelled with 99 Tcsup(m) in vivo as this method gave more stable 99 Tcsup(m) levels in blood compared to 99 Tcsup(m)-labelled human serum albumin and because it was more convenient than labelling RBC in vitro. RVEF measured with first pass (FP) technique and equilibrium (EQ) technique correlated well at rest, r = 0.86, and during exercise, r = 0.91. The FP technique had the best reproducibility and reference values at rest were 49+-5 per cent increasing with exercise. When 99 Tcsup(m) and 133 Xe were compared to assess RVEF with FP technique, the correlation was good, r = 0.88. LVEF assessed with EQ technique and a fixed end-diastolic region of interest was very reproducible at rest and during exercise; reference values at rest were 56+-8 per cent increasing with exercise. In 10 patients with pulmonary hypertension significant negative correlations were found between RVEF assessed with FP technique and pressures in pulmonary artery and right atrium. Abnormal RVEF was found in all patients with right ventricular disfunction. In 22 patients with recent myocardial infarction measurements of LVEF detected left ventricular disfunction better than did measurement of pulmonary artery diastolic pressure. During effort angina in another 10 patients all had abnormal LVEF and abnormal hemodynamics. By combining ejection fraction and stroke volume, ventricular volumes were calculated at rest and during exercise. (author)

  12. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. An Insight into the Effect of Exercises on the Prevention of Osteoporosis and Associated Fractures in High-Risk Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Senderovich

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this review was to investigate what type of exercises can potentially prevent osteoporosis (OP and its associated fractures in high-risk populations. MEDLINE was searched for work relevant to various types of exercises used to prevent osteoporotic fractures in high-risk population, from the year 1995 onwards. Twelve articles were identified, and, from them, four were deemed suitable to the objective. The studies reviewed show that various types of exercise are effective and safe in preventing the onset of OP. For example, high-intensity progressive resistance training (HiPRT has been shown to increase vertebral height and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD, in addition to improving functional performance. Additional studies reviewed suggested that bone reabsorption levels may be positively impacted by low-impact exercise, such as walking. This review provides insight into the effectiveness of various types of exercise to combat and possibly prevent OP for high-risk individuals, which include postmenstrual Caucasian females, people with multiple comorbidities, individuals who smoke or consume alcohol, and the frail elderly population. The prevention of OP should reduce both the social (emotional and economic burdens faced by patients, caregivers, and health-care systems. Moving forward, research that identifies and bridges pharmaceutical treatment and exercise should be conducted, in addition to the comparison of passive versus active forms of exercise to determine which treatment best prevents OP in high-risk populations.

  14. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  15. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  16. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  17. Impact of imposed exercise on energy intake in children at risk for overweight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnbach, S Nicole; Masterson, Travis D; Schlechter, Haley A; Ross, Amanda J; Rykaczewski, Michael J; Loken, Eric; Downs, Danielle S; Thivel, David; Keller, Kathleen L

    2016-10-21

    Exercise not only has a direct effect on energy balance through energy expenditure (EE), but also has an indirect effect through its impact on energy intake (EI). This study examined the effects of acute exercise on daily ad libitum EI in children at risk for becoming overweight due to family history. Twenty healthy-weight children (ages 9-12 years, 12 male/8 female) with at least one overweight biological parent (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m 2 ) participated. Children reported to the laboratory for one baseline and two experimental visits (EX = exercise, SED = sedentary) each separated by 1 week in a randomized crossover design. Two hours into the EX day session, children exercised at 70 % estimated VO 2max for 30 min on a cycle ergometer. Objective EI (kcal) was measured at a standard breakfast (~285 kcal) and ad libitum lunch, snack and dinner. Meals were identical on the EX and SED days. Activity-related EE (kcal) was estimated with accelerometers worn on the non-dominant wrist and ankle. Relative EI (kcal) was computed as the difference between Total EI and Activity-related EE for each testing day. Paired t-tests were performed to test differences in Total EI, Activity-related EE and Relative EI between the EX and SED days. Across all meals, Total EI was not statistically different between the EX and SED days (t = 1.8, p = 0.09). Activity-related EE was greater on the EX day compared to the SED day (t = 10.1, p kcal on each day, but had greater Activity-related EE on the EX day, Relative EI was lower (t = -5.15, p kcal) relative to the SED day (1862 ± 426 kcal). Imposed exercise was effective in reducing Relative EI compared to being sedentary. Morning exercise may help children at risk for becoming overweight to better regulate their energy balance within the course of a day.

  18. [High versus moderate intense running exercise - effects on cardiometabolic risk-factors in untrained males].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmler, Wolfgang; Lell, M; Scharf, M; Fraunberger, L; von Stengel, S

    2015-01-01

    Introduction | The philosophy on how to improve cardiometabolic risk factors most efficiently by endurance exercise is still controversial. To determine the effect of high-intensity (interval) training (HI[I]T) vs. moderate-intensity continuous exercise (MICE) training on cardiometabolic risk factors we conducted a 16-week crossover randomized controlled trial. Methods | 81 healthy untrained middle aged men were randomly assigned to a HI(I)T-group and a control-group that started the MICE running program after their control status. HI(I)T consisted of running exercise around or above the individual anaerobic threshold (≈ 80- 100 % HRmax); MICE focused on continuous running exercise at ≈ 65-77.5 % HRmax. Both protocols were comparable with respect to energy consumption. Study endpoints were cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max), left ventricular mass index (LVMI), metabolic syndrome Z-score (MetS-Z-score), intima-media-thickness (IMT) and body composition. Results | VO2max-changes in this overweighed male cohort significantly (p=0.002) differ between HIIT (14.7 ± 9.3 %, p=0.001) and MICE (7.9 ± 7.4 %,p=0.001). LVMI, as determined via magnetic resonance imaging, significantly increased in both exercise groups (HIIT: 8.5 ± 5.4 %, p=0.001 vs. MICE: 5.3 ± 4.0 %, p=0.001), however the change was significantly more pronounced (p=0.005) in the HIIT-group. MetS-Z-score (HIIT: -2.06 ± 1.31, p=0.001 vs. MICE: -1.60 ± 1.77, p=0.001) and IMT (4.6 ± 5.9 % p=0.011 vs. 4.4 ± 8.1 %, p=0.019) did not show significant group-differences. Reductions of fat mass (-4.9 ± 9.0 %, p=0.010 vs. -9.5 ± 9.4, p=0.001) were significantly higher among the MICE-participants (p=0.034), however, the same was true (p=0.008) for lean body mass (0.5 ± 2.3 %, p=0.381 vs. -1.3 ± 2.0 %, p=0.003). Conclusion | In summary high-intensity interval training tends to impact cardiometabolic health more favorable compared with a moderate-intensity continuous endurance exercise protocol.

  19. What Went Wrong at University Hospital? An Exercise Assessing Training Effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Trevor C.; Li, Stan X.; Sargent, Leisa D.; Tasa, Kevin

    2003-01-01

    In an experiential exercise, management students portrayed consultants assessing the effectiveness of a hospital's training program. Feedback from 28 North American and 17 Australian students indicated overall satisfaction and effective achievement of the objective: learning to apply the instructional systems design model to evaluation of training…

  20. The Effect of the Research Assessment Exercise on Organisational Culture in English Universities: Collegiality versus Managerialism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Keiko

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to identify the effect of the research assessment exercise (RAE) on the balance between collegiality and managerialism in English universities. The article examines the institutional strategies for the 2001 RAE and its effect on organisational culture, identifying change in governance, management and leadership in…

  1. Technical summary of the Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises for 1990 (PACE-90)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.

    1991-06-01

    A Performance Assessment Calculational Exercise for 1990 (PACE-90) was coordinated by the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Office for a total-system performance-assessment problem. The primary objectives of the exercise were to develop performance-assessment computational capabilities of the Yucca Mountain Project participates and to aid in identifying critical elements and processes associated with the calculation. The problem defined for PACE-90 was simulation of a ''nominal case'' groundwater flow and transport of a selected group of radionuclides through a portion of Yucca Mountain. Both 1-D and 2-D calculations were run for a modeling period of 100,000 years. The nuclides used, 99 Tc, 135 Cs, 129 I, and 237 Np, were representative of ''classes'' of long-lived nuclides expected to be present in the waste inventory. Movement of the radionuclides was simulated through a detailed hydrostratigraphy developed from Yucca Mountain data specifically for this exercise. The results showed that, for the specified conditions with the conceptual models used in the problem, no radioactive contamination reached the water table, 230 m below the repository. However, due to the unavailability of sufficient site-specific data, the results of this exercise cannot be considered a comprehensive total-system- performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain site as a high-level- waste repository. 46 refs., 94 figs., 19 tabs

  2. Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.

    2000-01-01

    ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

  3. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  4. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  5. Exercise Habit

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chunks of time. Exercise has so many health benefits that any amount is better than none. Try exercising for 10 minutes at a time throughout your ... second hand. Most people will get the greatest benefit and lower their risks if ... rate when exercising. To figure out your maximum heart rate, subtract ...

  6. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  7. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  8. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  9. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  10. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  12. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  13. Self-efficacy for exercise, more than disease-related factors, is associated with objectively assessed exercise time and sedentary behaviour in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, K M; Pieper, C F; Hall, K S; St Clair, E W; Kraus, W E

    2015-01-01

    Until recently, reports of physical activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were limited to self-report methods and/or leisure-time physical activity. Our objectives were to assess, determine correlates of, and compare to well-matched controls both exercise and sedentary time in a typical clinical cohort of RA. Persons with established RA (seropositive or radiographic erosions; n = 41) without diabetes or cardiovascular disease underwent assessments of traditional and disease-specific correlates of physical activity and 7 days of triaxial accelerometry. Twenty-seven age, gender, and body mass index (BMI)-matched controls were assessed. For persons with RA, objectively measured median (25th-75th percentile) exercise time was 3 (1-11) min/day; only 10% (n = 4) of participants exercised for ≥ 30 min/day. Time spent in sedentary activities was 92% (89-95%). Exercise time was not related to pain but was inversely related to disease activity (r = -0.3, p self-efficacy for endurance activity (r = 0.4, p self-efficacy for endurance activity (r = -0.4, p self-efficacy for physical activity but similar amounts of exercise and sedentary time. For persons with RA and without diabetes or cardiovascular disease, time spent in exercise was well below established guidelines and activity patterns were predominantly sedentary. For optimal care in RA, in addition to promoting exercise, clinicians should consider assessing sedentary behaviour and self-efficacy for exercise. Future interventions might determine whether increased self-efficacy can increase physical activity in RA.

  14. Incremental value of clinical assessment, supine exercise electrocardiography, and biplane exercise radionuclide ventriculography in the prediction of coronary artery disease in men with chest pain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currie, P.J.; Kelly, M.J.; Harper, R.W.; Federman, J.; Kalff, V.; Anderson, S.T.; Pitt, A.

    1983-01-01

    The incremental value of clinical assessment, exercise electrocardiography (ECG) and biplane radionuclide ventriculography (RVG) in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) was assessed in 105 men without myocardial infarction who were undergoing coronary angiography for investigation of chest pain. Independent clinical assessment of chest pain was made prospectively by 2 physicians. Graded supine bicycle exercise testing was symptom-limited. Right anterior oblique ECG-gated first-pass RVG and left anterior oblique ECG-gated equilibrium RVG were performed at rest and exercise. Regional wall motion abnormalities were defined by agreement of 2 of 3 blinded observers. A combined strongly positive exercise ECG response was defined as greater than or equal to 2 mm ST depression or 1.0 to 1.9 mm ST depression with exercise-induced chest pain. A multivariate logistic regression model for the preexercise prediction of CAD was derived from the clinical data and selected 2 variables: chest pain class and cholesterol level. A second model assessed the incremental value of the exercise test in prediction of CAD and found 2 exercise variables that improved prediction: RVG wall motion abnormalities, and a combined strongly positive ECG response. Applying the derived predictive models, 37 of the 58 patients (64%) with preexercise probabilities of 10 to 90% crossed either below the 10% probability threshold or above the 90% threshold and 28 (48%) also moved across the 5 and 95% thresholds. Supine exercise testing with ECG and biplane RVG together, but neither test alone, effectively adds to clinical prediction of CAD. It is most useful in men with atypical chest pain and when the ECG and RVG results are concordant

  15. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  16. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  17. The effect of 12 weeks of aerobic, resistance or combination exercise training on cardiovascular risk factors in the overweight and obese in a randomized trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Suleen S

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence suggests that exercise training improves CVD risk factors. However, it is unclear whether health benefits are limited to aerobic training or if other exercise modalities such as resistance training or a combination are as effective or more effective in the overweight and obese. The aim of this study is to investigate whether 12 weeks of moderate-intensity aerobic, resistance, or combined exercise training would induce and sustain improvements in cardiovascular risk profile, weight and fat loss in overweight and obese adults compared to no exercise. Methods Twelve-week randomized parallel design examining the effects of different exercise regimes on fasting measures of lipids, glucose and insulin and changes in body weight, fat mass and dietary intake. Participants were randomized to either: Group 1 (Control, n = 16; Group 2 (Aerobic, n = 15; Group 3 (Resistance, n = 16; Group 4 (Combination, n = 17. Data was analysed using General Linear Model to assess the effects of the groups after adjusting for baseline values. Within-group data was analyzed with the paired t-test and between-group effects using post hoc comparisons. Results Significant improvements in body weight (−1.6%, p = 0.044 for the Combination group compared to Control and Resistance groups and total body fat compared to Control (−4.4%, p = 0.003 and Resistance (−3%, p = 0.041. Significant improvements in body fat percentage (−2.6%, p = 0.008, abdominal fat percentage (−2.8%, p = 0.034 and cardio-respiratory fitness (13.3%, p = 0.006 were seen in the Combination group compared to Control. Levels of ApoB48 were 32% lower in the Resistance group compared to Control (p = 0.04. Conclusion A 12-week training program comprising of resistance or combination exercise, at moderate-intensity for 30 min, five days/week resulted in improvements in the cardiovascular risk profile in overweight and obese

  18. Proteomic approaches in cancer risk and response assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petricoin, Emanuel F; Liotta, Lance A

    2004-02-01

    Proteomics is more than just a list-generating exercise where increases or decreases in protein expression are identified. Proteomic technologies will ultimately characterize information-flow through the protein circuitry that interconnects the extracellular microenvironment to the serum or plasma macroenvironment through intracellular signaling systems and their control of gene transcription. The nature of this information can be a cause or a consequence of disease processes and how patients respond to therapy. Analysis of human cancer as a model for how proteomics can have an impact at the bedside can take advantage of several promising new proteomic technologies. These technologies are being developed for early detection and risk assessment, therapeutic targeting and patient-tailored therapy.

  19. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  20. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  1. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  2. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  3. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  4. Exercise effects on lipids in persons with varying dietary patterns-does diet matter if they exercise? Responses in Studies of a Targeted Risk Reduction Intervention through Defined Exercise I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Kim M; Hawk, Victoria H; Henes, Sarah T; Ocampo, Christine I; Orenduff, Melissa C; Slentz, Cris A; Johnson, Johanna L; Houmard, Joseph A; Samsa, Gregory P; Kraus, William E; Bales, Connie W

    2012-07-01

    The standard clinical approach for reducing cardiovascular disease risk due to dyslipidemia is to prescribe changes in diet and physical activity. The purpose of the current study was to determine if, across a range of dietary patterns, there were variable lipoprotein responses to an aerobic exercise training intervention. Subjects were participants in the STRRIDE I, a supervised exercise program in sedentary, overweight subjects randomized to 6 months of inactivity or 1 of 3 aerobic exercise programs. To characterize diet patterns observed during the study, we calculated a modified z-score that included intakes of total fat, saturated fat, trans fatty acids, cholesterol, omega-3 fatty acids, and fiber as compared with the 2006 American Heart Association diet recommendations. Linear models were used to evaluate relationships between diet patterns and exercise effects on lipoproteins/lipids. Independent of diet, exercise had beneficial effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol particle number, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol size, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol size, and triglycerides (P diet pattern that closely adhered to American Heart Association recommendations was not related to changes in these or any other serum lipids or lipoproteins in any of the exercise groups. We found that even in sedentary individuals whose habitual diets vary in the extent of adherence to AHA dietary recommendations, a rigorous, supervised exercise intervention can achieve significant beneficial lipid effects. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  6. The effect of exercise on cardiovascular risk markers in Mexican school-aged children: comparison between two structured group routines Efecto del ejercicio sobre marcadores de riesgo cardiovascular en escolares mexicanos: comparación entre dos rutinas grupales

    OpenAIRE

    Margie Balas-Nakash; Alejandra Benítez-Arciniega; Otilia Perichart-Perera; Roxana Valdés-Ramos; Felipe Vadillo-Ortega

    2010-01-01

    Objective. To assess the effects of two groups of exercise routines on cardiovascular disease risk markers. Material and Methods. An intervention study was conducted with 319 Mexican school-aged children in which routines were implemented Monday through Friday for 12 weeks. Routine A was the reference group, with 20 min of less intense activity and routine B was the new group with 40 min of aerobic exercises. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, fat mass percentage (FM%), systolic and ...

  7. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  8. Identifying drug risk perceptions in Danish youths: Ranking exercises in focus groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demant, Jakob; Ravn, Signe

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Background: This paper develops an analytical approach for understanding the perceptions of risks associated with drugs among youths in general. These perceptions are central in order to understand how certain drugs become popular, leading to increasing prevalence of use, while others do...... not. As such, this approach can become an efficient policy tool. Methods: Focus groups are used to investigate risk perceptions. We develop a specific methodology that combines a ranking exercise with discourse theory as an analytical approach. This methodology produces detailed information...... and provides a relatively efficient way of investigating normative risk perceptions at a national or subcultural level. The paper develops this methodology in relation to a Danish case with 12 focus group interviews with youths aged from 17 to 22. Results: The analysis identifies five discourses articulated...

  9. Identifying drug risk perceptions in Danish youths: Ranking exercises in focus groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demant, Jakob Johan; Ravn, Signe

    2010-01-01

    not. As such, this approach can become an efficient policy tool. Methods: Focus groups are used to investigate risk perceptions. We develop a specific methodology that combines a ranking exercise with discourse theory as an analytical approach. This methodology produces detailed information......Abstract: Background: This paper develops an analytical approach for understanding the perceptions of risks associated with drugs among youths in general. These perceptions are central in order to understand how certain drugs become popular, leading to increasing prevalence of use, while others do...... and provides a relatively efficient way of investigating normative risk perceptions at a national or subcultural level. The paper develops this methodology in relation to a Danish case with 12 focus group interviews with youths aged from 17 to 22. Results: The analysis identifies five discourses articulated...

  10. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  11. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  12. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  13. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  14. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodyear, Stephen J; Yow, Heng; Saedon, Mahmud; Shakespeare, Joanna; Hill, Christopher E; Watson, Duncan; Marshall, Colette; Mahmood, Asif; Higman, Daniel; Imray, Christopher He

    2013-05-19

    In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction.A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison.Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT 11 ml/kg/min was associated with reduced perioperative mortality (open cases only), LOS, survival and inpatient costs (open and endovascular repair) for elective infra-renal AAA surgery.

  16. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  17. Exercise addiction risk and health in male and female amateur endurance cyclists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayolas-Pi, Carmen; Simón-Grima, Javier; Peñarrubia-Lozano, Carlos; Munguía-Izquierdo, Diego; Moliner-Urdiales, Diego; Legaz-Arrese, Alejandro

    2017-03-01

    Background and aims To determine the relationship between the risk of exercise addiction (REA) and health status in amateur endurance cyclists. Methods In 859 (751 men and 108 women) cyclists and 718 inactive subjects (307 men and 411 women), we examined the REA (Exercise Addiction Inventory), training status (volume, frequency, experience, and performance), socioeconomic status, quality of life (QoL) (SF-12), quality of sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), and cardiometabolic risk: body mass index, physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire), physical condition (International Fitness Scale), adherence to the Mediterranean diet (Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener), alcohol and tobacco consumption. Results In total, 17% of the cyclists showed evidence of REA and 83% showed low REA. REA occurred independent of age, sex, training, and socioeconomic status (all ps > .05). Regardless of REA, the cyclists displayed a better physical QoL and a lower cardiometabolic risk than the inactive subjects (all ps Addiction × Sex interaction in the other analyzed variables. Conclusion Our results suggest that an increased prevalence of REA limits the benefits that amateur endurance cycling has on mental health and quality of sleep.

  18. Designing and conducting tabletop exercises to assess public health preparedness for manmade and naturally occurring biological threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dausey David J

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 2001, state and local health departments in the United States (US have accelerated efforts to prepare for high-impact public health emergencies. One component of these activities has been the development and conduct of exercise programs to assess capabilities, train staff and build relationships. This paper summarizes lessons learned from tabletop exercises about public health emergency preparedness and about the process of developing, conducting, and evaluating them. Methods We developed, conducted, and evaluated 31 tabletop exercises in partnership with state and local health departments throughout the US from 2003 to 2006. Participant self evaluations, after action reports, and tabletop exercise evaluation forms were used to identify aspects of the exercises themselves, as well as public health emergency responses that participants found more or less challenging, and to highlight lessons learned about tabletop exercise design. Results Designing the exercises involved substantial collaboration with representatives from participating health departments to assure that the scenarios were credible, focused attention on local preparedness needs and priorities, and were logistically feasible to implement. During execution of the exercises, nearly all health departments struggled with a common set of challenges relating to disease surveillance, epidemiologic investigations, communications, command and control, and health care surge capacity. In contrast, performance strengths were more varied across participating sites, reflecting specific attributes of individual health departments or communities, experience with actual public health emergencies, or the emphasis of prior preparedness efforts. Conclusion The design, conduct, and evaluation of the tabletop exercises described in this report benefited from collaborative planning that involved stakeholders from participating health departments and exercise developers and

  19. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  20. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  1. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  3. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  4. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  5. Effects of Combined exergame and conventional exercise to reduce and prevent fall risk among elderly people: A Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Sadeghi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falling among old individuals has provoked ceaseless discussion among gerontologists and physical therapists and it is still one of the greatest issues among this population. Loss of the balance and functional mobility is the main reason of falling. There have been numerous studies conducting the effect of the conventional balance exercise and exergame independently on balance and functional mobility of elderly. Previous studies lacked dealing with the effect of combined exergame and conventional exercise on the balance and functional mobility. Combined exercises are enjoyable and may have more effective to improve balance and performance to reduce risk of fall among elderly people. This package would be preferable for older people. Objective: We hypothesize that while conventional balance exercise and exergame improve balance and functional mobility, combined both types of exercise would superior improvements in elderly performance. Conclusion: Ultimately we expect that this hypothesis will provide a useful framework for facilitating combined exergame and conventional balance intervention in older people.

  6. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  7. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  8. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  9. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  10. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  11. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  12. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  13. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  14. Effects of Exercise Intervention on Vascular Risk Factors in Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuki Uemura

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Aims: The purpose of this study is to clarify the effects of exercise intervention on vascular risk factors in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI. Methods: Community-dwelling older adults who met the definition of MCI using the Petersen criteria (n = 100; mean age = 75.3 years were randomly allocated to the exercise (n = 50 or education control group (n = 50. Participants in the exercise group exercised under the supervision of physiotherapists for 90 min/day, 2 days/week, 80 times for 12 months. Anthropometric profiles, blood markers, blood pressure, and physical fitness (the 6-min walking test were measured. Total cholesterol (TC, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, and TC/HDL-C risk ratio measurements were taken from blood samples. Results: The exercise group showed significantly reduced TC and TC/HDL-C risk ratio after training compared with baseline levels (p Conclusion: Exercise intervention was associated with positive changes in important vascular risk factors related to cognitive decline and vascular disease in older adults with MCI.

  15. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  16. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  18. Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

    2014-01-01

    The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

  19. A 12-week sports-based exercise programme for inactive Indigenous Australian men improved clinical risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendham, Amy E; Duffield, Rob; Marino, Frank; Coutts, Aaron J

    2015-07-01

    This study assessed the effect of a 12-week sports-based exercise intervention on glucose regulation, anthropometry and inflammatory markers associated with the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Indigenous Australian men. Twenty-six inactive Indigenous Australian men (48.6±6.6 years) were randomized into exercise (n=16) or control (n=10)conditions. Training included ∼2-3 days/week for 12 weeks of sports and gym exercises in a group environment, whilst control participants maintained normal activity and dietary patterns. Pre- and post-intervention testing included: anthropometry, peak aerobic capacity, fasting blood chemistry of inflammatory cytokines, adiponectin, leptin, cholesterol, glucose, insulin and C-peptide. An oral glucose tolerance test measured glucose, insulin and C-peptide 30, 60, 90 and 120min post 75g glucose ingestion. The exercise condition decreased insulin area under the curve (25±22%), increased estimated insulin sensitivity (35±62%) and decreased insulin resistance (9±35%; p0.05). The exercise condition decreased in body mass index, waist circumference and waist to hip ratio (p0.05). Leptin decreased in the exercise group, with no changes for adiponectin (p>0.05) or inflammatory markers (p>0.05) in either condition. Aerobic fitness variables showed significant increases in peak oxygen consumption for the exercise condition compared to no change in control (p>0.05). Findings indicate positive clinical outcomes in metabolic, anthropometric and aerobic fitness variables. This study provides evidence for sport and group-based activities leading to improved clinical risk factors associated with T2DM development in clinically obese Indigenous Australian men. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  1. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  2. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  3. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  4. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  5. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  6. Failure to identify an acute exercise effect on executive function assessed by the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Chih Wang

    2015-03-01

    Conclusion: Acute aerobic exercise failed to influence executive function as assessed by the WCST, revealing that this classical neuropsychological test tapping executive function may not be sensitive to acute exercise. Our findings suggest that acute exercise does not broadly affect the entire family of executive functions, or its effect on a specific aspect of executive function may be task-dependent, as proposed by Etnier and Chang (2009.

  7. The development and evaluation of a program for leg-strengthening exercises and balance assessment using Kinect

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Jin-Seung; Kang, Dong-Won; Seo, Jeong-Woo; Kim, Dae-Hyeok; Yang, Seung-Tae; Tack, Gye-Rae

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] In this study, a program was developed for leg-strengthening exercises and balance assessment using Microsoft Kinect. [Subjects and Methods] The program consists of three leg-strengthening exercises (knee flexion, hip flexion, and hip extension) and the one-leg standing test (OLST). The program recognizes the correct exercise posture by comparison with the range of motion of the hip and knee joints and provides a number of correct action examples to improve training. The program mea...

  8. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  9. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  10. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  11. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  12. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  13. A study to assess the effectiveness of planned exercise programme in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bineeta Nath

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Psychotic disorders are some of the most severe, chronic, and intractable psychiatric disorders. Schizophrenia is a common and unsolved mental health problem in the world today. Negative symptoms are those symptoms that tend to reflect diminution or loss of normal functions like apathy, anhedonia, alogia, avolition, affective flattening, or social isolation. Exercise is useful for the reduction of some of the negative symptoms of schizophrenia, depression, and anxiety, and also to reduce auditory hallucinations and improve sleep patterns, self-esteem, and general behaviour in people living with schizophrenia. Aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of planned exercise programme in negative symptoms among patients with schizophrenia. Methodology: A quasi experimental research design was used for this study. Total 60 samples were assigned into two groups with 30 in control group and 30 in experimental group. The data was collected by using structured socio-demographic proforma, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, and Scale for Assessment of Negative symptoms. Result: There was a statistically significant difference in pre and post test scores in both control and experimental groups. But statistically significant difference in post test mean scores on negative symptoms between control and experimental groups indicated effectiveness of planned exercise programme along with medical and nursing care. Conclusion: The findings concluded that planned exercise programme with routine medical and nursing care was effective in reduction of negative symptoms in schizophrenia patients.

  14. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  15. Intercomparison exercise on internal dose assessment. Final report of a joint IAEA-IDEAS project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-09-01

    There have been several intercomparison exercises organized already at national and international levels for the assessment of occupational exposure due to intakes of radionuclides. These intercomparison exercises revealed significant differences in approaches, methods and assumptions, and consequently in the results. Because of the relevance of the issue for internal dosimetrists, the IAEA organized a new intercomparison exercise in cooperation with the IDEAS project General Guidelines for the Evaluation of Incorporation Monitoring Data, launched under the 5th EU Framework Programme (EU Contract No. FIKR-CT2001-00160). This new intercomparison exercise focused especially on the effect of the guidelines for harmonization of internal dosimetry. It also considered the following aspects: - to provide possibilities for the participating laboratories to check the quality of their internal dose assessment methods in applying the recent ICRP recommendations (e.g. for the new respiratory tract model); - to compare different approaches in interpretation of internal contamination monitoring data; - to quantify the differences in internal dose assessments based on the new guidelines or on other procedures, respectively; - to provide some figures for the influence of the input parameters on the monitoring results; and - to provide a broad forum for information exchange. Several cases have been selected for this exercise with the aim of covering a wide range of practices in the nuclear fuel cycle and in medical applications. The cases were: 1. Acute intake of HTO; 2. Acute inhalation of fission products 137 Cs and 90 Sr; 3. Intake of 60 Co; 4. Repeated intakes of 131 I; 5. Intake of enriched uranium; 6. Single intake of plutonium radionuclides and 241 Am. An Internet based approach had been used for the presentation of the cases, collection of responses and potential discussion of the results. Solutions to these cases were reported by 80 participants worldwide. This report

  16. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  17. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  18. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  19. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table