WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment decision-making

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    confidence interval under different assumptions regarding the data structure. The results stress the importance to invoke statistical methods and also illustrate how the choice of a wrong methodology may affect the quality of risk assessment and foundations for decision making. The uncertainty in assessing the volume of contaminated soil was shown to be dependant only to a low extent on the interpolation technique used for the specific case study analyzed. It is, however, expected that the uncertainty may increase significantly, if more restrictive risk criteria (lower guideline value) are applied. Despite a possible low uncertainty in assessing the contaminated soil volume, the uncertainty in its localization can be substantial. Based on the demo example presented, it comes out that the risk-based input for decision on soil treatment may vary depending on what assumptions were adopted during interpolation process. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation till spatial distribution of contaminant has been demonstrated by studies on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). The results from numerical simulations show that a lack in knowledge on the receptor moving routes may bring about substantial uncertainty in exposure assessment. The presented concept is mainly applicable for 'mobile' receptors on relatively large areas. A number of statistical definitions/methods/concepts are presented in the report of which some are not elaborated on in detail, while readers are referred to proper literature. The mail goal with the study has been rather to shed more light on aspects related to uncertainty in risk assessment and to demonstrate potential consequences of wrong approach than to provide readers with formal guideline and recommendations. However, the outcome from the study will hopefully contribute to the further work on novel approaches towards more reliable risk assessments

  2. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  3. Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

  4. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  6. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  7. Epistemic risks: challenges in assessment and decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    . There are calls to revisions ranging from the definition of risk and stretching to the use of risk analysis results in decision making. The talk will centre in answering the following questions: Why conventional approach to risk analysis is challenged? What are alternatives? How to operationalise the inclusion...... of epistemic uncertainty in risk analysis? How to make decisions based on risk analysis results?...

  8. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  9. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  10. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  11. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  12. Quantified risk assessment: its input to decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The conclusions are that QRA cannot be ignored in decision making, that human behaviour can significantly influence the standard of safety achieved in practice, that QRA can assist judgement, that it is not legitimate to 'read across' risk figures from one type of hazard to another to infer a uniform numerical level or limit and finally that major disasters can and do happen but the chance of any one happening must be kept very low. (author)

  13. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    , provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

  14. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  15. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  16. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  17. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  18. Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Zio, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the challenges involved in the representation and treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment, taking the point of view of its use in support to decision making. Two main issues are addressed: (1) how to faithfully represent and express the knowledge available to best support the decision making and (2) how to best inform the decision maker. A general risk-uncertainty framework is presented which provides definitions and interpretations of the key concepts introduced. The framework covers probability theory as well as alternative representations of uncertainty, including interval probability, possibility and evidence theory.

  19. Risk Assessment and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Tunnel and Underground Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanpu Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly being prioritized, especially for large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, where uncertainty is often the main source of risk. Epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced, is the focus of attention. In this study, the existing entropy-risk decision model is first discussed and analyzed, and its deficiencies are improved upon and overcome. Then, this study addresses the fact that existing studies only consider parameter uncertainty and ignore the influence of the model uncertainty. Here, focus is on the issue of model uncertainty and differences in risk consciousness with different decision-makers. The utility theory is introduced in the model. Finally, a risk decision model is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis and the tolerance cost, which can improve decision-making efficiency. This research can provide guidance or reference for the evaluation and decision-making of complex systems engineering problems, and indicate a direction for further research of risk assessment and decision-making issues.

  20. Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P. [QuantiSci Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-01

    The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument.

  1. Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P.

    1999-01-01

    The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument

  2. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessment of Level of Risk in Decision-Making in Terms of Career Exploitation

    OpenAIRE

    Semenov, Aleksandr Sergeevich; Kuznetcov, Vladimir Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    When designing career plots the raw data are stochastic in nature. From the results of the determination of these initial data depends not only the final result of the design or evaluation, but also the feasibility of the development of the field. While there are significant errors associated with the probabilistic nature of the source data and measurement errors and errors of calculations. Risk assessment is an integral part of project documentation. The project decision-making occurs under ...

  4. Emotions in Risk Assessment and Decision Making Processes During Craft Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Groth

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally subjective experiences and emotions have been overlooked in the practice of scientific research. In the field of design and craft research too, feelings and emotions have been considered as interfering with the rigour of research. However, as a result of findings in neuroscience, a new understanding has emerged, providing emotions a central role in risk assessment and decision making processes. This has implications also for how we understand craft practice. In this practice-led research, a craft practitioner analysed five video-recordings of herself while throwing clay blindfolded. The researcher-practitioner specifically studied critical incidents in the throwing process and made a detailed analysis of how sensory experiences and emotions guided her in risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving during the clay-throwing sessions. She found that her tactile experience gave her important clues on the condition of the material and its consequent possibilities at different stages. These experiences in turn affected her emotions in either positive or negative ways, affecting her risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving activities. This research has shown that sensory experiences and emotions influence the craft making process and are thus important elements in the expertise of the craftsperson. The role of such emotions remains to be studied further in the expertise of researchers in general.

  5. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  6. Health risk from radioactive and chemical environmental contamination: common basis for assessment and safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.

    2004-01-01

    To meet the growing practical need in risk analysis in Russia health risk assessment tools and regulations have been developed in the frame of few federal research programs. RRC Kurchatov Institute is involved in R and D on risk analysis activity in these programs. One of the objectives of this development is to produce a common, unified basis of health risk analysis for different sources of risk. Current specific and different approaches in risk assessment and establishing safety standards developed for chemicals and ionising radiation are analysed. Some recommendations are given to produce the common approach. A specific risk index R has been proposed for safety decision-making (establishing safety standards and other levels of protective actions, comparison of various sources of risk, etc.). The index R is defined as the partial mathematical expectation of lost years of healthy life (LLE) due to exposure during a year to a risk source considered. The more concrete determinations of this index for different risk sources derived from the common definition of R are given. Generic safety standards (GSS) for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index. Secondary specific safety standards have been derived from GSS for ionizing radiation and a number of other risk sources including environmental chemical pollutants. Other general and derived levels for decision-making have also been proposed including the e-minimum level. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data is shortly considered. Recommendations are given on methods and criteria for comparison of various sources of risk. Some examples of risk comparison are demonstrated in the frame of different comparison tasks. The paper has been prepared on the basis of the research work supported by International Science and Technology Centre, Moscow (project no. 2558). (author)

  7. Risk-informed decision making a keystone in advanced safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinhart, M.

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has provided extremely valuable complementary insight, perspective, comprehension, and balance to deterministic nuclear reactor safety assessment. This integrated approach of risk-informed management and decision making has been called Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM). RIDM provides enhanced safety, reliability, operational flexibility, reduced radiological exposure, and improved fiscal economy. Applications of RIDM continuously increase. Current applications are in the areas of design, construction, licensing, operations, and security. Operational phase safety applications include the following: technical specifications improvement, risk-monitors and configuration control, maintenance planning, outage planning and management, in-service inspection, inservice testing, graded quality assurance, reactor oversight and inspection, inspection finding significance determination, operational events assessment, and rulemaking. Interestingly there is a significant spectrum of approaches, methods, programs, controls, data bases, and standards. The quest of many is to assimilate the full compliment of PSA and RIDM information and to achieve a balanced international harmony. The goal is to focus the best of the best, so to speak, for the benefit of all. Accordingly, this presentation will address the principles, benefits, and applications of RIDM. It will also address some of the challenges and areas to improve. Finally it will highlight efforts by the IAEA and others to capture the international thinking, experience, successes, challenges, and lessons in RIDM. (authors)

  8. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials — The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-01

    and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a “holy grail” for informing risk management...

  9. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  10. Nuclear power plant personnel errors in decision-making as an object of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reer, B.

    1993-09-01

    The integration of human error - also called man-machine system analysis (MMSA) - is an essential part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). A new method is presented which allows for a systematic and comprehensive PRA inclusions of decision-based errors due to conflicts or similarities. For the error identification procedure, new question techniques are developed. These errors are shown to be identified by looking at retroactions caused by subordinate goals as components of the overall safety relevant goal. New quantification methods for estimating situation-specific probabilities are developed. The factors conflict and similarity are operationalized in a way that allows their quantification based on informations which are usually available in PRA. The quantification procedure uses extrapolations and interpolations based on a poor set of data related to decision-based errors. Moreover, for passive errors in decision-making a completely new approach is presented where errors are quantified via a delay initiating the required action rather than via error probabilities. The practicability of this dynamic approach is demonstrated by a probabilistic analysis of the actions required during the total loss of feedwater event at the Davis-Besse plant 1985. The extensions of the ''classical'' PRA method developed in this work are applied to a MMSA of the decay heat removal (DHR) of the ''HTR-500''. Errors in decision-making - as potential roots of extraneous acts - are taken into account in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Five additional errors are identified. However, the probabilistic quantification results a nonsignificant increase of the DHR failure probability. (orig.) [de

  11. The treatment of uncertainties in risk for regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study

  12. Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

    2015-01-01

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

  13. Risk - Informed decision making at Loviisa NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, J.K. [Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Loviisa (Finland)

    1999-09-01

    PSA has been used in many ways for risk-informed decision making at Loviisa power station. The most fruitful areas so far include: 1) Identification of dominating risk contributors and possible means for reducing risk by plant modification and improved procedures. 2) Providing risk perspective and economic criteria for assessing backfitting proposals. 3) Assessing the significance of ageing and needs for renewals. 4) Limiting, prioritising and optimising plant modifications. 5) Reducing testing requirements. 6) Justification of temporary aswell as permanent configurations and extended outage times. 7) Planning and prioritisation of training programs. (au)

  14. Risk - Informed decision making at Loviisa NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    PSA has been used in many ways for risk-informed decision making at Loviisa power station. The most fruitful areas so far include: 1) Identification of dominating risk contributors and possible means for reducing risk by plant modification and improved procedures. 2) Providing risk perspective and economic criteria for assessing backfitting proposals. 3) Assessing the significance of ageing and needs for renewals. 4) Limiting, prioritising and optimising plant modifications. 5) Reducing testing requirements. 6) Justification of temporary as well as permanent configurations and extended outage times. 7) Planning and prioritisation of training programs. (au)

  15. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  16. Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1997-01-01

    Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective

  17. The Pink Underside: The Commercialization of Medical Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Tools for Hereditary Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; Flynn, Bailey; Farrelly, Keeva

    2018-04-01

    The growth of the Internet since the millennium has opened up a myriad of opportunities for education, particularly in medicine. Although those looking for health care information used to have to turn to a face-to-face doctor's visit, an immense library of medical advice is now available at their fingertips. The BRCA genetic predispositions (mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 breast cancer genes) which expose men and women to greater risk of breast, ovarian, and other cancers can be researched extensively online. Several nonprofit organizations now offer online risk assessment and decision-making tools meant to supplement conversation with medical professionals, which in actuality are quickly replacing it. We argue here through a critical qualitative template analysis of several such tools that the discursive frameworks utilized are prone to fearmongering, commercialization, and questionable validity. Left unchecked, these assessment tools could do more harm than good in driving young women especially to take unnecessary extreme surgical action.

  18. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  19. Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Abootorabi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Statistical Report of the Social Security Organization indicate that among the various industries, the construction industry has the highest number of work-related accidents so that in addition to frequency, it has high intensity, as well. On the other hand, a large number of human resources are working in this whish shows they necessity for paying special attention to these workers. Therefore, risk assessment of the safety in the construction industry is an effective step in this regard. In this study, a method for ranking safety risks in conditions of low number of samples and uncertainty is presented, using gray multi-criterion decision-making. .Material and Method: In this study, we first identified the factors affecting the occurrence of hazards in the construction industry. Then, appropriate for ranking the risks were determined and the problem was defined as a multi-criterion decision-making. In order to weight the criteria and to evaluate alternatives based on each criterion, gray numbers were used. In the last stage, the problem was solved using the gray possibility degree. .Results: The results show that the method of gray multi-criterion decision-making is an effective method for ranking risks in situations of low samples compared with other methods of MCDM. .Conclusion: The proposed method is preferred to fuzzy methods and statistics in uncertain and low sample size, due to simple calculations and no need to define the membership function.

  20. Risk assessment in the European Community (EC); perspective as partial contributor in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.

    1981-01-01

    This paper is oriented towards the use of nuclear power for electricity production. The subject is discussed under the following headings: preamble; survey of practice and trends in reliability analyses and risk assessment:general (the risk concept; the types of reliability and risk analysis; the present state and trends of a probabilistic approach in safety analysis); risk analysis, partial contributor in the acceptability-problem (the political scene; technological society; cost effectiveness of risk reduction, cost-risk-benefit balancing; risk perception and acceptance; comparison of energy systems); need for and limitations of quantified safety objectives. (U.K.)

  1. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  2. Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepin, M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)

  3. Risk Assessment of Wastewater Collection Performance Using the Fuzzy Decision-making Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maedeh Asgarian

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Wastewater collection network simulation in normal conditions dose not provide performance assessment in unusual circumstances. In this paper, a model has been developed for risk assessment of wastewater collection systems to manage their performance under natural or man-made critical conditions. In this model, certain criteria were defined, fuzzy MADM techniques were exploited, and a questionnaire was employed to measure such risk parameters as the probability of threats, the severity of their impacts, and the vulnerability of the network components. Based on the calculated magnitude of the risks, the threats and hazards were classified into groups ranging from low-risk to high-risk threats. The approaches adopted to combat the risks were also classified into the following three categories: "to deal with the risk", "risk shifting", and "risk taking". This process was implemented for the wastewater collection system in Shahrak-Gharb District in Tehran as a case study. ‘Introduction of chemical pollutants into the sewers’ and ‘drastic changes in wastewater quality’ were identified as the most threatening crises for the district and the ‘risk reduction strategy’ was proposed for combating the critical conditions in this district.

  4. Aggregate assessments support improved operational decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, R.

    2003-01-01

    At Darlington Nuclear aggregate assessment of plant conditions is carried out in support of Operational Decision Making. This paper discusses how aggregate assessments have been applied to Operator Workarounds leading to improved prioritisation and alignment of work programs in different departments. As well, aggregate assessment of plant and human performance factors has been carried out to identify criteria which support conservative decision making in the main control room during unit transients. (author)

  5. Risk assessment by client and case manager for shared decision making in outpatient forensic psychiatry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brink, Rob H. S.; Troquete, Nadine A. C.; Beintema, Harry; Mulder, Tamara; van Os, Titus W. D. P.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wiersma, Durk

    2015-01-01

    Background: In outpatient forensic psychiatry, assessment of re-offending risk and treatment needs by case managers may be hampered by an incomplete view of client functioning. The client's appreciation of his own problem behaviour is not systematically used for these purposes. The current study

  6. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  8. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  9. Perceptions of LWR risk for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, J.; Asselin, S.

    1984-01-01

    The Industry Degraded Core (IDCOR) Program was designed to develop a comprehensive, technically sound position on the issues related to potential accidents in light water reactors. One of the goals is to acquire knowledge and data so that a more realistic approach to the problem is possible. Some of the IDCOR tasks develop information in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) framework. The PRA approach is structured upon reliability characteristics for individual components, such as pumps, valves and relays, which can be used to predict the frequency of system failures. System failure combinations can then be used to predict the probability of undesirable plant response to given initiating events. The IDCOR PRA tasks provide a significant amount of information related to the response of the plant to severe accidents. This information has been derived in a logical and consistent manner and so provides a coherent and rational basis for decision-making

  10. Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Pedro Nuno Rino Carreira

    2016-01-01

    Doutoramento em Gestão Risk and attitudes towards risk play a central role in several areas such as economics and psychology. Interestingly, in economics risk attitudes are addressed under the umbrella of the Utility Theory, while in psychology they are measured by psychometric scales. Risk attitudes in financial decision making are here studied under both approaches with the concern of understanding how they are related. So, I propose a conceptual model that explains risk attitudes, I ...

  11. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  12. Risks, values, and decision making surrounding pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, Anne Drapkin; Mitchell, Lisa M; Armstrong, Elizabeth M; Harris, Lisa H; Kukla, Rebecca; Kuppermann, Miriam; Little, Margaret Olivia

    2007-04-01

    Assessing, communicating, and managing risk are among the most challenging tasks in the practice of medicine and are particularly difficult in the context of pregnancy. We analyze common scenarios in medical decision making around pregnancy, from reproductive health policy and clinical care to research protections. We describe three tendencies in these scenarios: 1) to consider the probabilities of undesirable outcomes alone, in isolation from women's values and social contexts, as determinative of individual clinical decisions and health policy; 2) to regard any risk to the fetus, including incremental risks that would in other contexts be regarded as acceptable, as trumping considerations that may be substantially more important to the wellbeing of the pregnant woman; and 3) to focus on the risks associated with undertaking medical interventions during pregnancy to the exclusion of demonstrable risks to both woman and fetus of failing to intervene. These tendencies in the perception, communication, and management of risk can lead to care that is neither evidence-based nor patient-centered, often to the detriment of both women and infants.

  13. Beyond informed choice: Prenatal risk assessment, decision-making and trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nete Schwennesen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2004 prenatal risk assessment (PRA was implemented as a routine offer to all pregnant women in Denmark. It was argued that primarily the new programme would give all pregnant women an informed choice about whether to undergo prenatal testing. On the basis of ethnographic fieldwork in an ultrasound clinic in Denmark and interviews with pregnant women and their partners, we call into question the assumption underlying the new guidelines that more choice and more objective information is a source of empowerment and control. We focus on one couple's experience of PRA. This case makes it evident how supposed choices in the context of PRA may not be experienced as such. Rather, they are experienced as complicated processes of meaning-making in the relational space between the clinical setting, professional authority and the social life of the couples. PRA users are reluctant to make choices and abandon health professionals as authoritative experts in the face of complex risk knowledge. When assumptions about autonomy and self-determination are inscribed into the social practice of PRA, authority is transferred to the couple undergoing PRA and a new configuration of responsibility evolves between the couple and their relationship to the foetus. It is argued that al-though the new programme of prenatal testing in Denmark presents itself in opposition to quasi-eugenic and paternalistic forms of governing couples' decisions it represents another form of government that works through the notion of choice. An ethics of a shared responsibility of PRA and its outcome would be more in agreement with how decisions are actually made.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v2i1.1687

  14. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  15. Health-safety and environmental risk assessment of power plants using multi criteria decision making method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozi Ali Seyed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Growing importance of environmental issues at global and regional levels including pollution of water, air etc. as well as the outcomes such as global warming and climate change has led to being considered environmental aspects as effective factors for power generation. Study ahead, aims at examination of risks resulting from activities of Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant located in Iran. Method applied in the research is analytical hierarchy process. After identification of factors causing risk, the analytical hierarchy structure of the power plant risks were designed and weight of the criteria and sub-criteria were calculated by intensity probability product using Eigenvector Method and EXPERT CHOICE Software as well. Results indicate that in technological, health-safety, biophysical and socio economic sections of the power plant, factors influenced by the power plant activities like fire and explosion, hearing loss, quantity of groundwater, power generation are among the most important factors causing risk in the power plant. The drop in underground water levels is the most important natural consequence influenced on Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant.

  16. Application of PSA in risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models have been successfully employed during design evaluation to assess weak links and carry out design modifications to improve system reliability and safety. Recently, studies are directed towards applying PSA in various decision making issues concerned with plant operations and safety regulations. This necessitates development of software tools like Living PSA, Risk Monitor etc. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool developed to assess the risk, based on the actual status of systems and components. Such tools find wide application with plant personnel and regulatory authorities since they can provide solutions to various plant issues and regulatory decision making issues respectively. (author)

  17. Rational group decision making in risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, M.H.

    1987-01-01

    Risk management has received increasing attention recently as methods of quantifying risk have been evolving. This is considered a legitimate tendency in the context of the entirety of risk evaluation which connotes both risk quantification and decisions making thereon. A risk-free society does not appear possible; neither could one have zero competing risks or cost versus benefit resulting out of a risk-abatement effort. What further complicates the risk-decision problem is that there exists more than a single decision maker, who claim their own interests associated with risk decision. Furthermore, their risk perceptions are not at all same that the threshold risk levels for a particular actions are varying. In this dissertation, a brief survey on existing action levels for various sort of risk situations including carcinogens, toxic chemicals, etc., is reported on, with emphasis on nuclear risk situation. A decision theoretic approach is then adopted in both individual and group-level risk management. For the purpose of exemplification, multiplicative utility theory is applied for nuclear power risk; attributes derived for this specific purpose are discussed

  18. To admit or not to admit? The effect of framing on risk assessment decision making in psychiatrists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferies-Sewell, Kiri; Sharma, Shivani; Gale, Tim M; Hawley, Chris J; Georgiou, George J; Laws, Keith R

    2015-02-01

    The way that information is presented is well known to induce a range of biases in human decision tasks. Little research exists on framing effects in psychiatric decision making, but it is reasonable to assume that psychiatrists are not immune and, if so, there may be implications for the welfare of patients, staff and the general public. To investigate whether presentation of risk information in different formats (frequency, percentage and semantic) influences inpatient admission decisions by psychiatrists. Six-hundred seventy-eight general adult psychiatrists read a short clinical vignette presenting a case scenario of a patient presenting for inpatient admission. One of four condition questions followed the vignette, incorporating either numerical or percentage probabilities and the semantic labels "high" and "low" risk. In each condition, the actual risk was identical, but the way it was presented varied. The decision to admit the patient or not was recorded and compared across conditions. More individuals chose to admit the patient when risk information was presented in numerical form (X2 = 7.43, p = 0.006) and with the semantic label "high" (X2 = 7.27, p = 0.007). Presentation of risk information may influence decision making in psychiatrists. This has important implications for mental health clinical practice where clinicians are required to interpret probabilistic information within their daily work.

  19. Test-retest assessment of functional near-infrared spectroscopy to measure risk decision making in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Lin, Zijing; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

    2013-03-01

    Investigation of the reliability and reproducibility of the hemodynamic response is important for interpretation and understanding of the results of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). It measures optical signals absorbed by the brain tissue and reflects the neuronal activities indirectly. Here we described an fNIRS study measured in the prefrontal region (Brodman area 9, 10, part of 46)to examine the risk decision-making behavior in nine young adults. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is widely used to test the level of risk taking ability in the field of psychology. BART was a protocol utilized in this study to evoke a risk-taking environment with a gambling-like balloon game in each subject. Specifically, we recorded the brain oxygenated-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxygenated-hemoglobin (HHb) changes during the two repeated measurements within a time interval of 3 weeks. The results demonstrate that the changes in HbO2 amplitudes have high reliability at the group level, and that the spatial patterns of the tomographic images have high reproducibility in size and a moderate degree of overlap. Overall, this study confirms that the hemodynamic response to risk decision-making (i.e., BART) seen by fNIRS is highly reliable and reproducible.

  20. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  1. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk......Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models...

  2. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  3. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  4. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  5. Decision-making and risk-assessment in living liver donation: how informed is the informed consent of donors? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papachristou, Christina; Walter, Marc; Marc, Walter; Frommer, Joerg; Frommer, Jeorg; Klapp, Burghard F

    2010-01-01

    The practice of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has been increasing over the past 20 years. In LDLT, a healthy individual offers a substantial part of his or her liver (up to 60%) for the benefit of a terminally-ill recipient. The aim of the study was to identify decision-making and risk-assessment patterns of living liver donors and assess whether the principles of informed consent and decision autonomy are being met. The authors conducted semistructured clinical interviews with 28 donors before transplantation. The authors found that a decision was being reached before a decision-making process could take place. Surgery risks were perceived and processed in different ways, including the factors of risk-awareness, denial, limited acceptance, and fatalism. The authors assess concepts of informed consent and decision autonomy in LDLT, and offer suggestions for donor selection.

  6. Strategic Assessment of Risk and Risk Tolerance (StARRT) framework for return-to-play decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian

    2015-10-01

    The sport medicine clinician is faced with return-to-play (RTP) decisions for every patient who wants to return to activity. The complex interaction of factors related to history, physical examination, testing, activity and baseline characteristics can make RTP decision-making challenging. Further, when reasoning is not explicit, unnecessary conflict can arise among clinicians themselves, or among clinicians and patients. This conflict can have negative health consequences for the patient. In 2010, a transparent framework for RTP decisions was proposed. However, some have identified limitations to the framework and found difficulties in its implementation. This paper presents a revised framework that addresses the limitations, and provides concrete examples of how to apply it in simple and complex cases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2004-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

  8. Risk perception, safety goals and regulatory decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    1998-01-01

    Deciding on 'how safe is safe enough?' includes value judgements with implications of an ethical and political nature. As regulators are accountable to governments, parliaments and the general public, regulatory decision-making should be characterized by transparency with respect to how such value judgements are reflected in risk assessments and regulatory decisions. Some approaches in this respect are discussed in the paper, based on more than fifteen years of experience in nuclear regulatory decision-making. Issues discussed include: (1) risk profiles and safety goals associated with severe reactor accidents--individual health risks, societal risks and risk of losing investments; (2) risk profile-based licensing of the Swedish SFR final disposal facility for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

  9. How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

    2018-06-01

    Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

  10. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  11. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

  12. Risk-informed decision making during Bohunice NPP safety upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipar, M.; Muzikova, E.; Kubanyi, J.

    2001-01-01

    The paper summarizes some facts of risk-informed regulation developments within UJD regulatory environment. Based on national as well as international operating experience and indications resulted from PSA, Nuclear Regulatory Authority of the Slovak Republic (UJD) since its constituting in 1993 has devoted an effort to use PSA technology to support the regulatory policy in Slovakia. The PSA is considered a complement, not a substitute, to the deterministic approach. Suchlike integrated approach is used in decision making processes and the final decision on scope and priorities is based on it. The paper outlines risk insights used in the decision making process concerning Bohunice NPP safety upgrading and focuses on the role of PSA results in Gradual Reconstruction of Bohunice VI NPP. Besides, two other examples of the PSA results application to the decision making process are provided: the assessment of proposal of modifications to the main power supply diagram (incorporation of generator switches) and the assessment of licensee request for motor generator AOT (Allowable Outage Time) extension. As an example of improving support of Bohunice V-2 risk-informed operations, concept of AOT calculations and Bohunice V-2 Risk Monitor Project are briefly described. (author)

  13. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

  14. Mixing Methods in Assessing Coaches' Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergeer, Ineke; Lyle, John

    2007-01-01

    Mixing methods has recently achieved respectability as an appropriate approach to research design, offering a variety of advantages (Tashakkori & Teddlie, 2003). The purpose of this paper is to outline and evaluate a mixed methods approach within the domain of coaches' decision making. Illustrated with data from a policy-capturing study on…

  15. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  16. How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

    2018-06-13

    Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of

  17. Landslide risk assessment and landslide disaster risk management: on the missing link between scientific knowledge, decision making and practice (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcántara-Ayala, Irasema

    2016-04-01

    , including indeed society, with the intention of encouraging a science-policy interface for effective decision-making and practice within the sphere of landslide disaster risk management. References UNISDR (2015a) Global Assessment Report, Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Geneva, Switzerland. UNISDR (2015b) Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Geneva, Switzerland.

  18. Challenges in assessment and decision making in intercountry adoption

    OpenAIRE

    O'Brien, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenges facing ICA assessment and decision making in Irish adoption practice? The following questions are addressed •How can a balance be struck between legislative, procedural and best practice parameters in decision making? •Are the models used in assessment and decision making at variance or fitting with the balance required between these parameters? •In moving forward from 2008, what are there issues that need particular attention?

  19. A Flood Risk Assessment Model for Companies and Criteria for Governmental Decision-Making to Minimize Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieun Ryu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risks in the industrial sector and economic damages are increasing because of climate change. In addition to changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change; factors that increase flood damage include infrastructure deterioration and lack of storage facilities. Therefore; it is necessary for companies and the government to actively establish flood management policies. However; no evaluation method is currently available to determine which items should be invested in first by small and medium-sized enterprises that have limited finances. Because the government should make comprehensive and fair decisions; the purpose of this study is to propose priority investment risk items and an assessment method to decide which companies should be invested in first in flood risk management due to climate change. The multispatial scale of the method takes both the location and characteristics of the company into account. Future climate change scenarios were used to evaluate the changing patterns of flood risks. We developed the relative Flood Risk Assessment for Company (FRAC model methodology to support the government’s policymaking. This method was applied to four companies belonging to four different industries and three risk items were derived that are likely to harm the company owing to flooding.

  20. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  1. Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

  2. Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

  3. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  4. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in

  5. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated

  6. Incorporating availability/bioavailability in risk assessment and decision making of polluted sites, using Germany as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kördel, Werner; Bernhardt, Cornelia; Derz, Kerstin; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Harmsen, Joop; Peijnenburg, Willie; Comans, Rob; Terytze, Konstantin

    2013-10-15

    Nearly all publications dealing with availability or bioavailability of soil pollutants start with the following statement: the determination of total pollutant content will lead to an over-estimation of risk. However, an assessment of contaminated sites should be based on the determination of mobile fractions of pollutants, and the fractions with potential for mobilisation that threaten groundwater and surface water, and the actual and potential fractions available for uptake by plants, soil microflora and soil organisms. After reviewing the literature for method proposals concerning the determination of available/bioavailable fractions of contaminants with respect to leaching, plants, microorganisms (biodegradation) and soil organisms, we propose a testing and assessment scheme for contaminated sites. The proposal includes (i) already accepted and used methods, (ii) methods which are under standardisation, and (iii) methods for which development has just started in order to promote urgently needed research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Selection of tolerable risk criteria for dam safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, N.M.; Hartford, D.N.D.; MacDonald, T.F.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment has received increasing attention in recent years as a means of aiding decision making on dams by providing systematic and rational methods for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Risk assessment is controversial and decisions affecting risk to life are the most controversial. Tolerable criteria, based on the risks that society is prepared to accept in order to avoid excessive costs, set bounds within which risk-based decisions may be made. The components of risk associated with dam safety are addressed on an individual basis and criteria established for each component, thereby permitting flexibility in the balance between component risk and avoiding the problems of placing a monetary value on life. The guiding principle of individual risk is that dams do not impose intolerable risks on any individual. A risk to life of 1 in 10 4 per annum is generally considered the maximum tolerable risk. When considering societal risk, the safety of a dam should be proportional to the consequences of its failure. Risks of financial losses beyond the corporation's ability to finance should be so low as to be considered negligible. 17 refs., 3 figs

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations: robust design and support for decision making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oladyshkin, Sergey; Class, Holger; Helmig, Rainer; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    leads to a systematic and significant shift of predicted leakage rates towards higher values compared with deterministic simulations, affecting both risk estimates and the design of injection scenarios. This implies that, neglecting uncertainty can be a strong simplification for modeling CO2 injection, and the consequences can be stronger than when neglecting several physical phenomena (e.g. phase transition, convective mixing, capillary forces etc.). The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation (DFG) for financial support of the project within the Cluster of Excellence in Simulation Technology (EXC 310/1) at the University of Stuttgart. Keywords: polynomial chaos; CO2 storage; multiphase flow; porous media; risk assessment; uncertainty; integrative response surfaces

  9. Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

    2012-02-01

    Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

    2014-04-01

    Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

  11. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  12. Anticipatory stress influences decision making under explicit risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starcke, Katrin; Wolf, Oliver T; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

    2008-12-01

    Recent research has suggested that stress may affect memory, executive functioning, and decision making on the basis of emotional feedback processing. The current study examined whether anticipatory stress affects decision making measured with the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps both executive functioning and feedback learning. The authors induced stress in 20 participants by having them anticipate giving a public speech and also examined 20 comparison subjects. The authors assessed the level of stress with questionnaires and endocrine markers (salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase), both revealing that speech anticipation led to increased stress. Results of the GDT showed that participants under stress scored significantly lower than the comparison group and that GDT performance was negatively correlated with the increase of cortisol. Our results indicate that stress can lead to disadvantageous decision making even when explicit and stable information about outcome contingencies is provided.

  13. Decision-making Under Risk in Children, Adolescents, and Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children’s preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  14. Perceptions of corporate cyber risks and insurance decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Smidt, Guido; Botzen, Wouter

    This study provides an analysis of individual perceptions of cyber risks amongst professional decision makers. Data are collected using a survey of corporate professionals who are engaged in risk and insurance decision-making in various functional roles mainly in large companies. The study focuses

  15. Decision making with probabilitic and possibilistic assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudkamp, T. [Wright State Univ., Dayton, OH (United States)

    1996-12-31

    System models are constructed to provide tools for both situation assessment and decision analysis. Two distinct types of information are used in system modeling: external information provided by mechanical sensors or human observation and internal information that describes relationships between components of the system. The former type of information is frequently represented by probability estimates, fuzzy sets, or other techniques for representing uncertain or ambiguous information while the latter type is represented by logical relations, rules, or other variations of predicate calculus. Modeling complex system requires the ability to combine the internal system relationships with the information that describes the current assessment of the status of the system. Updating an assessment incorporates sensor information and propagates it through the relational constraints of the system. Two strategies have been introduced to attempt to integrate probabilistic and possibilistic information: probability-possibility transformations and consistency measures. Consistency measures have been designed to analyze the degree of agreement of possibilistic and probabilistic interpretations of the same data. In this paper we consider the problem of assessing the consistency of probabilistic and possibilistic information obtained from different sources. Criteria for possibilistic-probabilistic consistency measures are developed using inclusion measures for fuzzy sets.

  16. Assessing Professional Decision-Making Abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie

    1985-01-01

    Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…

  17. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  18. Risk concepts in UK nuclear safety decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brighton, P.W.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the concept of risk as understood in the UK, with particular reference to the use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in nuclear safety decision making. The way 'risk' appears in UK fundamental legislation means that the concept cannot be limited to evaluation of numerical probabilities of physical harm. Rather the focus is on doing all that is reasonably practicable to reduce risks: this entails applying relevant good practice and then seeking further safety measures until the money, time and trouble required are grossly disproportionate to the residual risk. PSA is used to inform rather than dictate such decisions. This approach is reinforced by considering how far any practical PSA can be said to measure risk. The behaviour of complex socio-technical systems such as nuclear power stations does not meet the conditions under which probability theory can be applied in an absolutely objective statistical sense. Risk is not an intrinsic real property of such systems. Rather PSA is a synthesis of data and subjective expert judgements, dependent on the extent of detailed knowledge of the plant. There are many other aspects of engineering judgement involved in safety decisions which cannot be so captured. (author)

  19. Risk perception and clinical decision making in primary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfoed, Benedicte Marie Lind

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We aim to present new knowledge about different perspectives of health care professionals’ risk perceptions and clinical decision making. Furthermore, we intend to discuss differences between professional and personal risk perceptions and the impact on decisions in terms of both short...... and long-term outcomes. Background Insight into healthcare professionals’ perception of risk is a cornerstone for understanding their strategies for practising preventive care. The way people perceive risk can be seen as part of a general personality trait influenced by a mixture of individual...... considerations and the specific context. Most research has been focused on understanding of the concepts of risk. However healthcare professionals’ risk perception and personal attitudes also affect their clinical decision-making and risk communication. The differences between health care professionals’ personal...

  20. Goal Setting and Decision Making by At-Risk Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galotti, Kathleen M.; Kozberg, Steven F.; Gustafon, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Typically, adolescence is a time when individuals begin to make consequential, life-framing decisions. However, much of the decision-making literature focuses on high-risk decisions, such as the use of drugs and alcohol, while much less is known about how adolescents make positive decisions, for example, regarding their educational or career…

  1. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  2. A different approach to quantifying fire risks when decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, Adrian

    1991-01-01

    This article outlines an alternative approach to fire safety design which involves decision making on the basis of risk considerations. The methodology is being developed in conjunction with the nuclear industry but is considered equally applicable to other industrial facilities. (author)

  3. Altered Decision-Making under Risk in Obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan F Navas

    Full Text Available The negative consequences of energy dense foods are well known, yet people increasingly make unhealthy food choices leading to obesity (i.e., risky decisions. The aims of this study were: [1] to compare performance in decision-making tasks under risk and under ambiguity between individuals with obesity, overweight and normal weight; [2] to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI and decision-making, and the degree to which these associations are modulated by reward sensitivity.Seventy-nine adults were recruited and classified in three groups according to their BMI: obesity, overweight and normal-weight. Groups were similar in terms of age, education and socio-economic status, and were screened for comorbid medical and mental health conditions. Decision-making under risk was measured via the Wheel of Fortune Task (WoFT and decision-making under ambiguity via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. Reward sensitivity was indicated by the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ.Individuals with obesity made riskier choices in the WoFT, specifically in choices with an expected value close to zero and in the propensity to risk index. No differences were found in IGT performance or SPSRQ scores. BMI was associated with risk-taking (WoFT performance, independently of reward sensitivity.Obesity is linked to a propensity to make risky decisions in experimental conditions analogous to everyday food choices.

  4. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

  5. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  6. Risk informed decision making. Topical issues paper no. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Szikszai, T.

    2001-01-01

    To date, probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been performed for more than 200 nuclear power plants (NPPs) worldwide and are under various stages of development for most of the remaining NPPs. The state-of-the-art is to have a full scope Level 2 PSA (including external events and low power and shutdown) which is maintained as a 'living PSA' with regular updating. Modern computer technology allows frequent recalculations of the PSA to evaluate the impact of changes in operation or design and allows use of the PSA in the form of safety or risk monitors. There is a general agreement, as documented in various IAEA Safety Standards, that the deterministic approach to nuclear safety should be complemented by a probabilistic approach. Though PSAs have been used extensively in the past, it was usually limited to a variety of applications on a case by case basis as deemed necessary or useful. There is now a recent development led by the USA, and followed by several other countries, to move to a much expanded use of PSA in what is termed 'risk informed decision making'. The main driving force behind this movement is the expectation that the use of risk insights can result in both improved safety and a reduction in unnecessary regulatory requirements, hence leading to a more efficient use of resources for NPP operators and the regulatory authority. One of the key challenges in truly risk informed decision making is the reconciliation of PSA results and insights with traditional deterministic analysis. This is particularly true when it comes to defence in depth and safety margins. PSA results often conflict with deterministic insights. If a method of reconciling these conflicts is not defined, then risk informed can become deterministic plus PSA. This results in PSA being an additional layer of requirements rather than a tool for optimized decision making. Alternatively, if PSA information is always used to override deterministic considerations, then that is a 'risk

  7. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  8. Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

  9. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  10. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2012-01-01

    Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

  11. Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Enrico Rubaltelli; Sergio Agnoli; Michela Rancan; Tiziana Pozzoli

    2015-01-01

    Previous work on investment decision-making suggested that emotions prevent investors from taking risks and from investing in a rational way, whereas other work found that there is great variability in people’s ability to manage and use emotional feedbacks. We hypothesized that people with high trait emotional intelligence should be more willing, than people with low trait emotional intelligence, to accept risks when making an investment. Data supported a model in which trait emotional intell...

  12. Decision making in young people at familial risk of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannie, Z N; Williams, C; Browning, M; Cowen, P J

    2015-01-01

    Major depression is associated with abnormalities in reward processing at neural and behavioural levels. Neural abnormalities in reward have been described in young people at familial risk of depression but behavioural changes in reward-based decision making have been less studied in this group. We studied 63 young people (mean age 18.9 years) with a parent with a diagnosis of major depression but who had never been depressed themselves, that is with a positive family history of depression (the FH+ group). Participants performed the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), which provides several measures of decision making including deliberation time, quality of decision making, risk taking, risk adjustment and delay aversion. A control group of 49 age- and gender-matched young people with no history of mood disorder in a first-degree relative undertook the same task. Both FH+ participants and controls had low and equivalent scores on anxiety and depression self-rating scales. Compared to controls, the FH+ participants showed overall lower risk taking, although like controls they made more risky choices as the odds of a favourable outcome increased. No other measures of decision making differed between the two groups. Young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered risk taking that is not accounted for by current affective symptomatology. Lowered risk taking might represent an impairment in reward seeking, which is one of several changes in reward-based behaviours seen in acutely depressed patients; however, our findings suggest that decreased reward seeking could be part of a risk endophenotype for depression.

  13. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  14. Decision-Making Competence Predicts Domain-Specific Risk Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua eWeller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Making Competence (DMC reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804 completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery (A-DMC; Bruine de Bruin, Parker, & Fischhoff, 2007. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC  expected benefits  risk-taking than the DMC  perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for risk behaviors that may be considered more antisocial in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of the given behavior.

  15. Assessing the relevance of ecotoxicological studies for regulatory decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudén, Christina; Adams, Julie; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Brock, Theo Cm; Poulsen, Veronique; Schlekat, Christian E; Wheeler, James R; Henry, Tala R

    2017-07-01

    Regulatory policies in many parts of the world recognize either the utility of or the mandate that all available studies be considered in environmental or ecological hazard and risk assessment (ERA) of chemicals, including studies from the peer-reviewed literature. Consequently, a vast array of different studies and data types need to be considered. The first steps in the evaluation process involve determining whether the study is relevant to the ERA and sufficiently reliable. Relevance evaluation is typically performed using existing guidance but involves application of "expert judgment" by risk assessors. In the present paper, we review published guidance for relevance evaluation and, on the basis of the practical experience within the group of authors, we identify additional aspects and further develop already proposed aspects that should be considered when conducting a relevance assessment for ecotoxicological studies. From a regulatory point of view, the overarching key aspect of relevance concerns the ability to directly or indirectly use the study in ERA with the purpose of addressing specific protection goals and ultimately regulatory decision making. Because ERA schemes are based on the appropriate linking of exposure and effect estimates, important features of ecotoxicological studies relate to exposure relevance and biological relevance. Exposure relevance addresses the representativeness of the test substance, environmental exposure media, and exposure regime. Biological relevance deals with the environmental significance of the test organism and the endpoints selected, the ecological realism of the test conditions simulated in the study, as well as a mechanistic link of treatment-related effects for endpoints to the protection goal identified in the ERA. In addition, uncertainties associated with relevance should be considered in the assessment. A systematic and transparent assessment of relevance is needed for regulatory decision making. The relevance

  16. Decision making under explicit risk is impaired in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Esther; Tomlinson, Sara E; Purdon, Scot E; Gill, M John; Power, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can affect the frontal-striatal brain regions, which are known to subserve decision-making functions. Previous studies have reported impaired decision making among HIV+ individuals using the Iowa Gambling Task, a task that assesses decision making under ambiguity. Previous study populations often had significant comorbidities such as past or present substance use disorders and/or hepatitis C virus coinfection, complicating conclusions about the unique contributions of HIV-infection to decision making. Decision making under explicit risk has very rarely been examined in HIV+ individuals and was tested here using the Game of Dice Task (GDT). We examined decision making under explicit risk in the GDT in 20 HIV+ individuals without substance use disorder or HCV coinfection, including a demographically matched healthy control group (n = 20). Groups were characterized on a standard neuropsychological test battery. For the HIV+ group, several disease-related parameters (viral load, current and nadir CD4 T-cell count) were included. Analyses focused on the GDT and spanned between-group (t-tests; analysis of covariance, ANCOVA) as well as within-group comparisons (Pearson/Spearman correlations). HIV+ individuals were impaired in the GDT, compared to healthy controls (p = .02). Their decision-making impairments were characterized by less advantageous choices and more random choice strategies, especially towards the end of the task. Deficits in the GDT in the HIV+ group were related to executive dysfunctions, slowed processing/motor speed, and current immune system status (CD4+ T-cell levels, ps Decision making under explicit risk in the GDT can occur in HIV-infected individuals without comorbidities. The correlational patterns may point to underlying fronto-subcortical dysfunctions in HIV+ individuals. The GDT provides a useful measure to assess risky decision making in this population and should be tested in larger studies.

  17. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  18. Moving toward comprehensive acute heart failure risk assessment in the emergency department: the importance of self-care and shared decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sean P; Storrow, Alan B

    2013-08-01

    Nearly 700,000 emergency department (ED) visits were due to acute heart failure (AHF) in 2009. Most visits result in a hospital admission and account for the largest proportion of a projected $70 billion to be spent on heart failure care by 2030. ED-based risk prediction tools in AHF rarely impact disposition decision making. This is a major factor contributing to the 80% admission rate for ED patients with AHF, which has remained unchanged over the last several years. Self-care behaviors such as symptom monitoring, medication taking, dietary adherence, and exercise have been associated with decreased hospital readmissions, yet self-care remains largely unaddressed in ED patients with AHF and thus represents a significant lost opportunity to improve patient care and decrease ED visits and hospitalizations. Furthermore, shared decision making encourages collaborative interaction between patients, caregivers, and providers to drive a care path based on mutual agreement. The observation that “difficult decisions now will simplify difficult decisions later” has particular relevance to the ED, given this is the venue for many such issues. We hypothesize patients as complex and heterogeneous as ED patients with AHF may need both an objective evaluation of physiologic risk as well as an evaluation of barriers to ideal self-care, along with strategies to overcome these barriers. Combining physician gestalt, physiologic risk prediction instruments, an evaluation of self-care, and an information exchange between patient and provider using shared decision making may provide the critical inertia necessary to discharge patients home after a brief ED evaluation.

  19. Using measurement uncertainty in decision-making and conformity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendrill, L. R.

    2014-08-01

    Measurements often provide an objective basis for making decisions, perhaps when assessing whether a product conforms to requirements or whether one set of measurements differs significantly from another. There is increasing appreciation of the need to account for the role of measurement uncertainty when making decisions, so that a ‘fit-for-purpose’ level of measurement effort can be set prior to performing a given task. Better mutual understanding between the metrologist and those ordering such tasks about the significance and limitations of the measurements when making decisions of conformance will be especially useful. Decisions of conformity are, however, currently made in many important application areas, such as when addressing the grand challenges (energy, health, etc), without a clear and harmonized basis for sharing the risks that arise from measurement uncertainty between the consumer, supplier and third parties. In reviewing, in this paper, the state of the art of the use of uncertainty evaluation in conformity assessment and decision-making, two aspects in particular—the handling of qualitative observations and of impact—are considered key to bringing more order to the present diverse rules of thumb of more or less arbitrary limits on measurement uncertainty and percentage risk in the field. (i) Decisions of conformity can be made on a more or less quantitative basis—referred in statistical acceptance sampling as by ‘variable’ or by ‘attribute’ (i.e. go/no-go decisions)—depending on the resources available or indeed whether a full quantitative judgment is needed or not. There is, therefore, an intimate relation between decision-making, relating objects to each other in terms of comparative or merely qualitative concepts, and nominal and ordinal properties. (ii) Adding measures of impact, such as the costs of incorrect decisions, can give more objective and more readily appreciated bases for decisions for all parties concerned. Such

  20. Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

    2015-11-20

    The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

  1. Performing a secondary executive task with affective stimuli interferes with decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathmann, Bettina; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Schöler, Tobias; Brand, Matthias

    2014-05-01

    Previous studies demonstrated that executive functions are crucial for advantageous decision making under risk and that therefore decision making is disrupted when working memory capacity is demanded while working on a decision task. While some studies also showed that emotions can affect decision making under risk, it is unclear how affective processing and executive functions predict decision-making performance in interaction. The current experimental study used a between-subjects design to examine whether affective pictures (positive and negative pictures compared to neutral pictures), included in a parallel executive task (working memory 2-back task), have an impact on decision making under risk as assessed by the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Moreover, the performance GDT plus 2-back task was compared to the performance in the GDT without any additional task (GDT solely). The results show that the performance in the GDT differed between groups (positive, negative, neutral, and GDT solely). The groups with affective pictures, especially those with positive pictures in the 2-back task, showed more disadvantageous decisions in the GDT than the groups with neutral pictures and the group performing the GDT without any additional task. However, executive functions moderated the effect of the affective pictures. Regardless of affective influence, subjects with good executive functions performed advantageously in the GDT. These findings support the assumption that executive functions and emotional processing interact in predicting decision making under risk.

  2. Emotion regulation and decision making under risk and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Renata M; Crişan, Liviu G; Houser, Daniel; Miclea, Mircea; Miu, Andrei C

    2010-04-01

    It is well established that emotion plays a key role in human social and economic decision making. The recent literature on emotion regulation (ER), however, highlights that humans typically make efforts to control emotion experiences. This leaves open the possibility that decision effects previously attributed to acute emotion may be a consequence of acute ER strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression. In Study 1, we manipulated ER of laboratory-induced fear and disgust, and found that the cognitive reappraisal of these negative emotions promotes risky decisions (reduces risk aversion) in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and is associated with increased performance in the prehunch/hunch period of the Iowa Gambling Task. In Study 2, we found that naturally occurring negative emotions also increase risk aversion in Balloon Analogue Risk Task, but the incidental use of cognitive reappraisal of emotions impedes this effect. We offer evidence that the increased effectiveness of cognitive reappraisal in reducing the experience of emotions underlies its beneficial effects on decision making. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  4. Safety assessment as basis for the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, P.; Didita, L.; Danchiv, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the safety assessment for a new near surface repository, particularly for the early stage of repository development using ISAM (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Disposal Facilities) safety assessment methodology. In this stage of the repository life cycle the main purpose of the safety assessment is to demonstrate that the plant is capable to be constructed and operated safely. The paper is based on development of the ASAM (Application of the Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near-Surface Disposal Facilities) Decision Support Subgroup of the Common Aspects Working Group. The implications of decision making for the application of the ISAM methodology on post-closure safety assessment are analysed. Some important elements of the decision-making process with impact on key components of the ISAM process are described. Following the development of Decision Support Subgroup of the ASAM Common Aspects Working Group the proposed change of ISAM methodology is analysed. This approach puts all activities in a decision context where the first iteration of the safety assessment is based on the existing state of knowledge and the initial engineering design. Confidence in the process is accomplished through the direct inclusion of all decision makers and stakeholders in the formulation of decisions, the definition of the state of knowledge, and decision making activities. The decision process is developed in context of undertaking assessments with little site-specific information, this situation is specifically for new planned repository. Limited site-specific information can result in a high degree of uncertainty, therefore it is important first of all to identify the sources of uncertainty arising from the limited nature of the site-specific information and then to apply appropriate approaches to manage the uncertainties and to determine whether the uncertainties are important to the overall safety of the disposal facility

  5. Risk informed decision making - a pre-study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2004-04-01

    Examples of risk-informed decisions are establishing maintenance programmes, optimising inspection policies and justifying plant modifications, and revising technical specifications. Applications in daily situations can be such as accepting or rejecting exemptions from technical specifications. The aim of this pre-study was to identify the status of risk-informed decision making at Swedish and Finnish nuclear power plants and nuclear safety authorities. Responses to a questionnaire were obtained either by interviews or by e-mail from two Swedish and two Finnish NPPs, SKI and STUK. The development of a risk-informed decision procedure based on decision analytic ideas is worth recommending. A clear documentation format is a part of such procedure. In order to serve as a basis for final decision, the documentation should include clearly defined decision criteria, qualification of PSA model for the issue under analysis, description of most important uncertainties and assumptions. (au)

  6. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  7. Assessment and decision making for R and D programmes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, P.; Lindberg, R.

    1997-12-31

    Tampere University of Technology (TUT) and Technology Development Centre (TEKES) has since 1993 been developing a new method for assessment and decision making for R and D programmes. The method has been adapted in several Finnish technology programmes. The method enables separate parties of R and D programme to specify their projects in relation with the entire programme. It also links objectives with a measurable assessment procedure and produces objective information for decision making. The method has been developed in co-operation with the University of Manchester. The method is divided into the following four parts: (1) preparation of the assessment strategy; (2) implementation of appraisal, (3) monitoring in the implementation phase, and (4) implementation and evaluation. The preparation of assessment strategy is divided into five parts: selection of strategy makers, determination of the scope of the strategy, selection of main assessment criteria, selection of main data collection methods and data sources, and output of assessment strategy. The implementation of appraisal is divided into six parts, which are mapping of the problems, selection of criteria to be assessed, selection of data sources, follow-up procedures, preparing the assessment plan for future, and analysis of results and reporting. The emphasis of the phase is on the appraisal of appropriateness of the goals. Monitoring in the implementation phase follows the same systematic procedure as previous part as well as implementation and evaluation. The emphasis in the last phase is on the evaluation of fulfilled outputs and impacts. (orig.)

  8. Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

    2015-09-01

    The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

  9. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  10. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ersdal, Gerhard; Aven, Terje

    2008-01-01

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle

  11. Regulatory approach to risk informed decision making in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chande, S.K.; Koley, J.

    2001-01-01

    Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), the authority for licensing and monitoring safety in Indian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), makes use of insights gained from PSA together with the results of the other deterministic analyses in taking decisions regarding the acceptability of the safety of the NPPs. PSA provides an estimation of risks; it also gives information on a balanced design by revealing interaction between engineered features and weak areas in a design. For regulatory use, PSA needs to be carried out using standardized methodology and state of the art technology. PSA helps regulators in taking faster and consistent decisions. Keeping in mind the limitations associated with PSA study, AERB has decided to adopt risk-informed decision making in regulatory licensing process. This paper describes the AERB policy regarding PSA and gives an overview of the experience in this area. (author)

  12. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ersdal, Gerhard [University of Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: gerhard.ersdal@ptil.no; Aven, Terje [University of Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-02-15

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle.

  13. Health technology assessment, value-based decision making, and innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshall, Chris; Schuller, Tara

    2013-10-01

    Identifying treatments that offer value and value for money is becoming increasingly important, with interest in how health technology assessment (HTA) and decision makers can take appropriate account of what is of value to patients and to society, and in the relationship between innovation and assessments of value. This study summarizes points from an Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) Policy Forum discussion, drawing on presentations, discussions among attendees, and background papers. Various perspectives on value were considered; most place patient health at the core of value. Wider elements of value comprise other benefits for: patients; caregivers; the health and social care systems; and society. Most decision-making systems seek to take account of similar elements of value, although they are assessed and combined in different ways. Judgment in decisions remains important and cannot be replaced by mathematical approaches. There was discussion of the value of innovation and of the effects of value assessments on innovation. Discussion also included moving toward "progressive health system decision making," an ongoing process whereby evidence-based decisions on use would be made at various stages in the technology lifecycle. Five actions are identified: (i) development of a general framework for the definition and assessment of value; development by HTA/coverage bodies and regulators of (ii) disease-specific guidance and (iii) further joint scientific advice for industry on demonstrating value; (iv) development of a framework for progressive licensing, usage, and reimbursement; and (v) promoting work to better adapt HTA, coverage, and procurement approaches to medical devices.

  14. Cognitive abilities and superior decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward T. Cokely

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Individual differences in cognitive abilities and skills can predict normatively superior and logically consistent judgments and decisions. The current experiment investigates the processes that mediate individual differences in risky choices. We assessed working memory span, numeracy, and cognitive impulsivity and conducted a protocol analysis to trace variations in conscious deliberative processes. People higher in cognitive abilities made more choices consistent with expected values; however, expected-value choices rarely resulted from expected-value calculations. Instead, the cognitive ability and choice relationship was mediated by the number of simple considerations made during decision making --- e.g., transforming probabilities and considering the relative size of gains. Results imply that, even in simple lotteries, superior risky decisions associated with cognitive abilities and controlled cognition can reflect metacognitive dynamics and elaborative heuristic search processes, rather than normative calculations. Modes of cognitive control (e.g., dual process dynamics and implications for process models of risky decision-making (e.g., priority heuristic are discussed.

  15. Assessment of Group Preferences and Group Uncertainty for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-06-01

    the individ- uals. decision making , group judgments should be preferred to individual judgments if obtaining group judgments costs more. -26- -YI IV... decision making group . IV. A. 3. Aggregation using conjugate distribution. Arvther procedure for combining indivi(jai probability judgments into a group...statisticized group group decision making group judgment subjective probability Delphi method expected utility nominal group 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on

  16. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  17. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  18. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  19. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-02-01

    Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

  20. The Influence of Emotion Regulation on Decision-making under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N.; Delgado, Mauricio R.

    2011-01-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison to trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum), and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse). PMID:21254801

  1. The influence of emotion regulation on decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N; Delgado, Mauricio R

    2011-09-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison with trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, BOLD responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum) and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse).

  2. [Correlation of resistance to peer pressure and risky decision-making with adolescent health risk behaviors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Jing; Sun, Ying; Wang, Xi; Zu, Ping; Mai, Jin-cheng; Liang, Jian-ping; Xu, Zhi-yong; Man, Xue-jun; Mao, Yan; Tao, Fang-biao

    2013-03-01

    To explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer pressure, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. Based on the cluster sampling method, the participants who were recruited from 5 junior middle schools in Guangzhou and 3 junior middle schools in Shenyang city on October, 2010, were administered to complete the questionnaire concerned with their experiences with drinking and smoking during the past 30 days preceding the survey, and the hours using computer daily both in weekdays and in weekend. The level of resistance to peer influence and risky decision-making were assessed by Resistance to peer influence scale (RPIS) and Youth decision-making questionnaire (YDMQ). Logistic regression was used to explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer influence, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. A total of 1985 questionnaires were valid, including 1001(50.4%) boys and 984 (49.6%) girls. About 27.1% (537/1985) junior middle school students reported having health risk behaviors, boys' (30.7%, 307/1001) was higher than girls' (23.4%, 230/984) with significant gender difference (P peer influence (low and middle level vs high level, had odds ratios of 2.97 (1.96 - 4.50) and 1.51 (1.05 - 2.16)), and also the middle and high level of risky decision-making (middle and high level vs low level, had odds ratios of 1.62 (1.19 - 2.22) and 3.43 (2.39 - 4.90)) were all the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors. Adolescents with poor ability of resistance to peer pressure and high risky decision-making were both the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors.

  3. Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

    2016-05-01

    Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

  4. Assessments of risk indices and decision-making support within risk based land management and sustainable rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.; Didenko, V.; Golikov, V.

    2002-01-01

    Description of the applied Geoinformation Decision-Support System PRANA for risk based land management and rehabilitation of territories of Bryansk region (Russia), subjected to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident, is presented. The main blocks of PRANA DSS, including electronic maps, databases and models are described. Implementation of vector land use map with corresponding integration of different models allows integrating both local and regional level of analysis and practical implementation (from each field and settlement up to farm and district and regional levels). Some examples of model assessments (map of countermeasures and doses) are presented

  5. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  6. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

  7. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O'Brien

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching and whole-body leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory. Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the whole-body task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the whole-body movements than in arm-reaching at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects’ inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  8. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  9. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed

    2016-05-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi

  10. Postnatal Psychosocial Assessment and Clinical Decision-Making, a Descriptive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Deborah; Fowler, Cathrine

    2018-05-18

    The aim of this study is to describe experienced child and family health nurses' clinical decision-making during a postnatal psychosocial assessment. Maternal emotional wellbeing in the postnatal year optimises parenting and promotes infant development. Psychosocial assessment potentially enables early intervention and reduces the risk of a mental disorder occurring during this time of change. Assessment accuracy, and the interventions used are determined by the standard of nursing decision-making. A qualitative methodology was employed to explore decision-making behaviour when conducting a postnatal psychosocial assessment. This study was conducted in an Australian early parenting organisation. Twelve experienced child and family health nurses were interviewed. A detailed description of a postnatal psychosocial assessment process was obtained using a critical incident technique. Template analysis was used to determine the information domains the nurses accessed, and content analysis was used to determine the nurses' thinking strategies, to make clinical decisions from this assessment. The nurses described 24 domains of information and used 17 thinking strategies, in a variety of combinations. The four information domains most commonly used were parenting, assessment tools, women-determined issues and sleep. The seven thinking strategies most commonly used were searching for information, forming relationships between the information, recognising a pattern, drawing a conclusion, setting priorities, providing explanations for the information and judging the value of the information. The variety and complexity of the clinical decision-making involved in postnatal psychosocial assessment confirms that the nurses use information appropriately and within their scope of nursing practice. The standard of clinical decision-making determines the results of the assessment and the optimal access to care. Knowledge of the information domains and the decision-making strategies

  11. Exploiting risk-reward structures in decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuker, Christina; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Pleskac, Timothy J

    2018-06-01

    People often have to make decisions under uncertainty-that is, in situations where the probabilities of obtaining a payoff are unknown or at least difficult to ascertain. One solution to this problem is to infer the probability from the magnitude of the potential payoff and thus exploit the inverse relationship between payoffs and probabilities that occurs in many domains in the environment. Here, we investigated how the mind may implement such a solution: (1) Do people learn about risk-reward relationships from the environment-and if so, how? (2) How do learned risk-reward relationships impact preferences in decision-making under uncertainty? Across three experiments (N = 352), we found that participants can learn risk-reward relationships from being exposed to choice environments with a negative, positive, or uncorrelated risk-reward relationship. They were able to learn the associations both from gambles with explicitly stated payoffs and probabilities (Experiments 1 & 2) and from gambles about epistemic events (Experiment 3). In subsequent decisions under uncertainty, participants often exploited the learned association by inferring probabilities from the magnitudes of the payoffs. This inference systematically influenced their preferences under uncertainty: Participants who had been exposed to a negative risk-reward relationship tended to prefer the uncertain option over a smaller sure option for low payoffs, but not for high payoffs. This pattern reversed in the positive condition and disappeared in the uncorrelated condition. This adaptive change in preferences is consistent with the use of the risk-reward heuristic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality among community-dwelling older persons without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2013-01-01

    Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD = 2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean = 1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07-1.32, p = 0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score = 3, 10th percentile) was about 4 times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score = 11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  13. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  14. Technological risk: The limits of science in decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.; Elliott, P.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between science and decision making yb reference to a series of debates in South Wales centring around a high-temperature icineration plant operated by Rechem

  15. A decision making framework for risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, B. S.; Kim, I. S.; Seo, M. S.; Sung, G. Y.

    2001-01-01

    The RITS literature survey on regulatory requirements and current TS research status in Korea as well as in foreign countries has been performed. Based on this survey, the RITS decision-making framework for the licensee and regulator point-of-view, respectively, is introduced in this paper. The required documents for the licensee to prepare are suggested in a systematic approach; the decision-making process of regulators for evaluating the documents is recommended

  16. Decision making under ambiguity but not under risk is related to problem gambling severity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Bechara, Antoine; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between problem gambling severity and decision-making situations that vary in two degrees of uncertainty (probability of outcome is known: decision-making under risk; probability of outcome is unknown: decision-making under ambiguity). For

  17. A study on decision-making framework for developing risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Beom Seock

    2002-02-01

    The utility and the nuclear research institutes in Korea have conduct research for improving inefficient requirements in technical specifications using the results of probability risk assessments and information associated with risk. However, the guidance for reviewing the improved technical specifications has not been developed. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a decision-making framework for investigating and reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. This work has been done for helping the regulation agency to review the improved technical specifications as well as to make decisions whether the remedy is accepted or not. The contents of this study include: 1. Surveys on Technical Specification regulations in foreign countries as well as those in Korea 2. Surveys on the state- of- the- art methodology for Risk Informed Technical Specifications and their uses in Korea 3. Development of a decision-making framework in both the licensee and the regulation agency position 4. Development and applications of a decision-making framework using Influence Diagrams. The decision-making framework for RITS using Influence Diagrams are developed and applied to an example problem in this study. This work might contribute to developing the risk informed regulation guidance for improving the quality of the current technical specifications

  18. Decision-Making Under Risk, but Not Under Ambiguity, Predicts Pathological Gambling in Discrete Types of Abstinent Substance Users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Michael J; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2018-01-01

    This study explored how different forms of reward-based decision-making are associated with pathological gambling (PG) among abstinent individuals with prior dependence on different classes of drugs. Participants had lifetime histories of either "pure" heroin dependence ( n = 64), "pure" amphetamine dependence ( n = 51), or polysubstance dependence ( n = 89), or had no history of substance dependence ( n = 133). Decision-making was assessed via two neurocognitive tasks: (1) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a measure of decision-making under ambiguity (i.e., uncertain risk contingencies); and (2) the Cambridge Gambling task (CGT), a measure of decision-making under risk (i.e., explicit risk contingencies). The main effects of neurocognitive performance and drug class on PG (defined as ≥3 DSM-IV PG symptoms) as well as their interactional effects were assessed via multiple linear regression. Two CGT indices of decision-making under risk demonstrated positive main effects on PG. Interaction effects indicated that the effects of decision-making under risk on PG were largely consistent across participant groups. Notably, a linear relationship between greater CGT Risk-Taking and PG symptoms was not observed among amphetamine users, whereas IGT performance was selectively and positively associated with PG in polysubstance users. Overall, results indicate that reward-based decision-making under risk may represent a risk factor for PG across substance users, with some variations in these relationships influenced by specific class of substance of abuse.

  19. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  20. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Steelandt

    Full Text Available In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie. We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  1. Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

  2. Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

    2018-06-01

    In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

  3. Background risk information to assist in risk management decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; White, R.K.; Miller, D.B.

    1992-10-01

    The evaluation of the need for remedial activities at hazardous waste sites requires quantification of risks of adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem resulting from the presence of chemical and radioactive substances at these sites. The health risks from exposure to these substances are in addition to risks encountered because of the virtually unavoidable exposure to naturally occurring chemicals and radioactive materials that are present in air, water, soil, building materials, and food products. To provide a frame of reference for interpreting risks quantified for hazardous waste sites, it is useful to identify the relative magnitude of risks of both a voluntary and involuntary nature that are ubiquitous throughout east Tennessee. In addition to discussing risks from the ubiquitous presence of background carcinogens in the east Tennessee environment, this report also presents risks resulting from common, everyday activities. Such information should, not be used to discount or trivialize risks from hazardous waste contamination, but rather, to create a sensitivity to general risk issues, thus providing a context for better interpretation of risk information

  4. Balancing risk and reward: a rat model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Nicholas W; Gilbert, Ryan J; Mayse, Jeffrey D; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2009-09-01

    We developed a behavioral task in rats to assess the influence of risk of punishment on decision making. Male Long-Evans rats were given choices between pressing a lever to obtain a small, 'safe' food reward and a large food reward associated with risk of punishment (footshock). Each test session consisted of 5 blocks of 10 choice trials, with punishment risk increasing with each consecutive block (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%). Preference for the large, 'risky' reward declined with both increased probability and increased magnitude of punishment, and reward choice was not affected by the level of satiation or the order of risk presentation. Performance in this risky decision-making task was correlated with the degree to which the rats discounted the value of probabilistic rewards, but not delayed rewards. Finally, the acute effects of different doses of amphetamine and cocaine on risky decision making were assessed. Systemic amphetamine administration caused a dose-dependent decrease in choice of the large risky reward (ie, it made rats more risk averse). Cocaine did not cause a shift in reward choice, but instead impaired the rats' sensitivity to changes in punishment risk. These results should prove useful for investigating neuropsychiatric disorders in which risk taking is a prominent feature, such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and addiction.

  5. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  6. Impediments for the application of risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahn, L.

    2001-01-01

    A broad application of risk-informed decision making in the regulation of safety of nuclear power plants is hindered by the lack of quantitative risk and safety standards as well as of precise instruments to demonstrate an appropriate safety. An additional severe problem is associated with the difficulty to harmonize deterministic design requirements and probabilistic safety assessment. The problem is strengthened by the vulnerability of PSA for subjective influences and the potential of misuse. Beside this scepticism the nuclear community is encouraged to intensify the efforts to improve the quality standards for probabilistic safety assessments and their quality assurance. A prerequisite for reliable risk-informed decision making processes is also a well-defined and transparent relationship between deterministic and probabilistic safety approaches. (author)

  7. Female Adolescent Contraceptive Decision Making and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Sharon A.; Green, Vicki

    1993-01-01

    Findings from 60 sexually active, unmarried females, ages 14 through 18, revealed that cognitive capacity and cognitive egocentrism variables as well as age, grade, and ethnic status significantly predicted 6 of 7 decision-making variables in contraceptive use model. One cognitive capacity variable and one sexual contraceptive behavior variable…

  8. A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

    2012-01-01

    Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

  9. Decision-making under risk and ambiguity in low-birth-weight pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Eimear; Kraak, Lynn; van den Broek, Jan; Nordquist, Rebecca E; van der Staay, Franz Josef

    2015-03-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) in humans is a risk factor for later cognitive, behavioural and emotional problems. In pigs, LBW is associated with higher mortality, but little is known about consequences for surviving piglets. Alteration in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function in LBW pigs suggests altered emotionality, but no behavioural indicators have been studied. Decision-making under uncertain conditions, e.g., risk or ambiguity, is susceptible to emotional influences and may provide a means of assessing long-term effects of LBW in piglets. We tested LBW (N = 8) and normal-birth-weight (NBW; N = 8) male pigs in two decision-making tasks. For decision-making under risk, we developed a simple two-choice probabilistic task, the Pig Gambling Task (PGT), where an 'advantageous' option offered small but frequent rewards and a 'disadvantageous' option offered large but infrequent rewards. The advantageous option offered greater overall gain. For decision-making under ambiguity, we used a Judgement Bias Task (JBT) where pigs were trained to make an active response to 'positive' and 'negative' tone cues (signalling large and small rewards, respectively). Responses to ambiguous tone cues were rated as more or less optimistic. LBW pigs chose the advantageous option more often in later blocks of the PGT, and were scored as less optimistic in the JBT, than NBW pigs. Our findings demonstrate that LBW pigs have developed different behavioural strategies with respect to decision-making. We propose that this is guided by changes in emotionality in LBW piglets, and we provide behavioural evidence of increased negative affect in LBW piglets.

  10. Environmental Decision Making and Information Technology: Issues Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barg, S.; Fletcher, T.; Mechling, J.; Tonn, B.; Turner, R.

    1999-05-01

    This report presents a summary of the Information Technology and Environmental Decision Making Workshop that was held at Harvard University, October 1-3, 1998. Over sixty participants from across the US took part in discussions that focused on the current practice of using information technology to support environmental decision making and on future considerations of information technology development, information policies, and data quality issues in this area. Current practice is focusing on geographic information systems and visualization tools, Internet applications, and data warehousing. In addition, numerous organizations are developing environmental enterprise systems to integrate environmental information resources. Plaguing these efforts are issues of data quality (and public trust), system design, and organizational change. In the future, much effort needs to focus on building community-based environmental decision-making systems and processes, which will be a challenge given that exactly what needs to be developed is largely unknown and that environmental decision making in this arena has been characterized by a high level of conflict. Experimentation and evaluation are needed to contribute to efficient and effective learning about how best to use information technology to improve environmental decision making.

  11. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  12. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  13. Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

    2017-10-01

    Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

  14. Modulation of risk/reward decision making by dopaminergic transmission within the basolateral amygdala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Joshua D; Jenni, Nicole L; Floresco, Stan B

    2016-01-01

    Dopamine (DA) transmission within cortico-limbic-striatal circuitry is integral in modulating decisions involving reward uncertainty. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) also plays a role in these processes, yet how DA transmission within this nucleus regulates cost/benefit decision making is unknown. We investigated the contribution of DA transmission within the BLA to risk/reward decision making assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. Rats were well-trained to choose between a small/certain reward and a large/risky reward, with the probability of obtaining the larger reward decreasing (100-12.5 %) or increasing (12.5-100 %) over a session. We examined the effects of antagonizing BLA D1 (SCH 23390, 0.1-1 μg) or D2 (eticlopride, 0.1-1 μg) receptors, as well as intra-BLA infusions of agonists for D1 (SKF 81297, 0.1-1 μg) and D2 (quinpirole, 1-10 μg) receptors. We also assessed how DA receptor stimulation may induce differential effects related to baseline levels of risky choice. BLA D1 receptor antagonism reduced risky choice by decreasing reward sensitivity, whereas D2 antagonism did not affect overall choice patterns. Stimulation of BLA D1 receptors optimized decision making in a baseline-dependent manner: in risk-averse rats, infusions of a lower dose of SKF81297 increased risky choice when reward probabilities were high (50 %), whereas in risk-prone rats, this drug reduced risky choice when probabilities were low (12.5 %). Quinpirole reduced risky choice in risk-prone rats, enhancing lose-shift behavior. These data highlight previously uncharacterized roles for BLA DA D1 and D2 receptors in biasing choice during risk/reward decision making through mediation of reward/negative feedback sensitivity.

  15. Operator involvement in plant decision making and self-assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dugwyler, R.L.

    1993-04-01

    The Fast Flux Test Facility has a history of innovation that goes beyond mere compliance with DOE Conduct of Operations. This innovation fosters excellence at all levels of daily operations. Consistent operator input into management decision making and self-assessment has helped to produce an Operations staff that is proud and professional. A group of operators drafted the Fast Flux Test Facility Operations Professional Code, which serves as a benchmark for excellence. Operator committees have proposed changes as varied as the twelve hour rotating shift schedule, a streamlined reactor operator qualification program and an improved new hire training process. The changes succeeded because they had widespread operator acceptance. Similar committees have initiated staffing and qualification changes to help Operations cope with transforming the plant from an operating to a standby status. Standing committees such as the Operations Review Team (1985 to 1988) and the Operations Performance Enhancement Committee (1990 to present) have provided operators with an independent review of root causes and corrective actions to events. This occurs both for in-plant and other DOE facility events, through a Lessons Learned Program. The committees have also had open-quotes management's earclose quotes regarding suggestions for improving safety, efficiency and operator performance. As the Fast Flux Test Facility goes from an operating plant to a plant in standby, one of the primary changes will be to maintain operator interest in continual improvement. The Operations Performance Enhancement Committee can assist in this pursuit -- a pursuit of excellence. The purpose of this paper is to relate the successes of operator involvement at the Fast Flux Test Facility from the viewpoint of an Operations Engineer

  16. Importance of risk comparison for individual and societal decision-making after the Fukushima disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2018-01-30

    Risk comparison is essential for effective societal and individual decision-making. After the Fukushima disaster, studies compared radiation and other disaster-related risks to determine the effective prioritizing of measures for response. Evaluating the value of risk comparison information can enable effective risk communication. In this review, the value of risk comparison after the Fukushima disaster for societal and individual decision-making is discussed while clarifying the concept of radiation risk assessment at low doses. The objectives of radiation risk assessment are explained within a regulatory science framework, including the historical adoption of the linear non-threshold theory. An example of risk comparison (i.e. radiation risk versus evacuation-related risk in nursing homes) is used to discuss the prioritization of pre-disaster measures. The effective communication of risk information by authorities is discussed with respect to group-based and face-to-face approaches. Furthermore, future perspectives regarding radiation risk comparisons are discussed. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

  17. On the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions for decision-making in disaster risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Lexin; Nilsson, Anders; Sjölin, Johan; Abrahamsson, Marcus; Tehler, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Managing risk using an “all-hazards” and “whole of society”-approach involves extensive communication of risk descriptions among many stakeholders. In the present study we investigate how professionals working with disaster risk management in such contexts perceive the usefulness of different descriptions of risk. Empirical data from the Swedish disaster risk management system were used in an attempt to investigate the aspects of a risk description that affect its usefulness (as perceived by professionals). Thirty-three local municipal risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA documents) produced in the region of Scania in 2012 were analyzed in terms of six variables. The documents were then ranked by professionals based on their perceived usefulness for decision-making. Statistical analysis was conducted to identify any possible correlations between the overall ranking of the usefulness of the municipal RVA:s and each of the variables. We conclude that the way the likelihood and consequences of scenarios are described influence the perceived usefulness of a risk description. Furthermore, whether descriptions of scenarios are included in a risk description or not, and whether background information concerning the likelihood of scenarios are included also influence perceived usefulness of risk descriptions. - Highlights: • Written communication of risk between professionals is investigated. • The way likelihood is described influences a risk description's usefulness. • The way consequences are described influence a risk description's usefulness. • Whether background information is included in a risk description influences its usefulness

  18. Life cycle and human health risk assessments as tools for decision making in the design and implementation of nanofiltration in drinking water treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribera, G; Clarens, F; Martínez-Lladó, X; Jubany, I; V Martí; Rovira, M

    2014-01-01

    A combined methodology using life cycle assessment (LCA) and human health risk assessment (HHR) is proposed in order to select the percentage of water in drinking water treatment plants (DWTP) that should be nanofiltered (NF). The methodological approach presented here takes into account environmental and social benefit criteria evaluating the implementation of new processes into conventional ones. The inclusion of NF process improves drinking water quality, reduces HHR but, in turn, increases environmental impacts as a result of energy and material demand. Results from this study lead to balance the increase of the impact in various environmental categories with the reduction in human health risk as a consequence of the respective drinking water production and consumption. From an environmental point of view, the inclusion of NF and recommended pretreatments to produce 43% of the final drinking water means that the environmental impact is nearly doubled in comparison with conventional plant in impact categories severely related with electricity production, like climate change. On the other hand, the carcinogenic risk (HHR) associated to trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP) decreases with the increase in NF percentage use. Results show a reduction of one order of magnitude for the carcinogenic risk index when 100% of drinking water is produced by NF. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risky decision-making under risk in schizophrenia: A deliberate choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Anya; Göder, Robert; Tomczyk, Samuel; Ohrmann, Patricia

    2017-09-01

    Patients with schizophrenia reveal impaired decision-making strategies causing social, financial and health care problems. The extent to which deficits in decision-making reflect intentional risky choices in schizophrenia is still under debate. Based on previous studies we expected patients with schizophrenia to reveal a riskier performance on the GDT and to make more disadvantageous decisions on the IGT. In the present study, we investigated 38 patients with schizophrenia and 38 matched healthy control subjects with two competing paradigms regarding feedback: (1) The Game of Dice Task (GDT), in which the probabilities of winning or losing are stable and explicitly disclosed to the subject, to assess decision-making under risk and (2) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which requires subjects to infer the probabilities of winning or losing from feedback, to investigate decision-making under ambiguity. Patients with schizophrenia revealed an overall riskier performance on the GDT; although they adjusted their strategy over the course of the GDT, they still made significantly more disadvantageous choices than controls. More positive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia indicated by higher PANSS positive scores were associated with riskier choices and less use of negative feedback. Compared to healthy controls, they were not impaired in net score but chose more disadvantageous cards than controls on the first block of the IGT. Effects of medication at the time of testing cannot be ruled out. Our findings suggest that patients with schizophrenia make riskier decisions and are less able to regulate their decision-making to implement advantageous strategies, even when the probabilities of winning or losing are explicitly disclosed. The dissociation between performance on the GDT and IGT suggests a pronounced impairment of executive functions related to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

    2001-01-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards

  1. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  2. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  3. Accuracy assessment of planimetric large-scale map data for decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doskocz Adam

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents decision-making risk estimation based on planimetric large-scale map data, which are data sets or databases which are useful for creating planimetric maps on scales of 1:5,000 or larger. The studies were conducted on four data sets of large-scale map data. Errors of map data were used for a risk assessment of decision-making about the localization of objects, e.g. for land-use planning in realization of investments. An analysis was performed for a large statistical sample set of shift vectors of control points, which were identified with the position errors of these points (errors of map data.

  4. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  5. Impact of support system failure limitations on probabilistic safety assessment and in regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickel, J.H.

    1990-01-01

    When used as a tool for safety decision making, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is as effective as it realistically characterizes the overall frequency and consequences of various types of system and component failures. If significant support system failure events are omitted from consideration, the PSA process omits the characterization of possible unique contributors to core damage risk, possibly underestimates the frequency of core damage, and reduces the future utility of the PSA as a decision making tool for the omitted support system. This paper is based on a review of several recent US PSA studies and the author's participation in several International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sponsored peer reviews. 21 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  6. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  8. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  9. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  10. Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

  11. Dissociation of decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk in breast cancer patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy: a neuropsychological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingui; Zhu, Chunyan; Li, Jingjing; Qiu, Linlin; Zhang, Long; Yu, Fengqiong; Ye, Rong; Zhang, Jingjie; Wang, Kai

    2013-10-02

    There is evidence that women with breast cancer show a cognitive impairment after having undergone chemotherapy treatment; this cognitive impairment may result in behavioral deficits. However, the neural mechanism of this cognitive impairment remains unclear. The present study investigated the neural basis of the cognitive impairment caused by chemotherapy treatment by exploring the decision-making function of the executive subcomponents under ambiguity and risk in breast cancer survivors. Participants included breast cancer patients who had undergone chemotherapy (CT, N=63) or patients who did not undergo chemotherapy (non-CT, N=62), as well as matched healthy controls (HC, N=61). All participants were examined using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to assess their decision-making under ambiguity, the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess their decision-making under risk and neuropsychological background tests. Our results indicated that during the IGT test, the chemotherapy-treated breast cancer patients selected from the disadvantageous decks with a higher frequency than the non-treated breast cancer patients or healthy controls, whereas all three groups performed at the same level when performing the GDT. The CT group demonstrated significantly lower scores in several cognitive tasks, including attention, memory, executive functions and cognitive processing, when compared with the other two groups. In addition, within the CT group, significant correlations were found between the IGT performance and information processing, as well as with working memory. This study demonstrated that breast cancer survivors treated with chemotherapy may have selective reductions in IGT performance but unimpaired GDT performance and that these deficits may result from dysfunctions in the limbic loop rather than in the dorsolateral prefrontal loop. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Emerging methods and tools for environmental risk assessment, decision-making, and policy for nanomaterials: summary of NATO Advanced Research Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linkov, I; Steevens, J; Adlakha-Hutcheon, G

    2009-01-01

    and the environment. A unique feature of this workshop was its interdisciplinary nature and focus on the practical needs of policy decision makers. Workshop presentations and discussion panels were structured along four main themes: technology and benefits, human health risk, environmental risk, and policy......Nanomaterials and their associated technologies hold promising opportunities for the development of new materials and applications in a wide variety of disciplines, including medicine, environmental remediation, waste treatment, and energy conservation. However, current information regarding...... the environmental effects and health risks associated with nanomaterials is limited and sometimes contradictory. This article summarizes the conclusions of a 2008 NATO workshop designed to evaluate the wide-scale implications (e.g., benefits, risks, and costs) of the use of nanomaterials on human health...

  13. Emerging methods and tools for environmental risk assessment, decision-making, and policy for nanomaterials: summary of NATO Advanced Research Workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Steevens, Jeffery; Adlakha-Hutcheon, Gitanjali; Bennett, Erin; Chappell, Mark; Colvin, Vicki; Davis, J. Michael; Davis, Thomas; Elder, Alison; Foss Hansen, Steffen; Hakkinen, Pertti Bert; Hussain, Saber M.; Karkan, Delara; Korenstein, Rafi; Lynch, Iseult; Metcalfe, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Nanomaterials and their associated technologies hold promising opportunities for the development of new materials and applications in a wide variety of disciplines, including medicine, environmental remediation, waste treatment, and energy conservation. However, current information regarding the environmental effects and health risks associated with nanomaterials is limited and sometimes contradictory. This article summarizes the conclusions of a 2008 NATO workshop designed to evaluate the wide-scale implications (e.g., benefits, risks, and costs) of the use of nanomaterials on human health and the environment. A unique feature of this workshop was its interdisciplinary nature and focus on the practical needs of policy decision makers. Workshop presentations and discussion panels were structured along four main themes: technology and benefits, human health risk, environmental risk, and policy implications. Four corresponding working groups (WGs) were formed to develop detailed summaries of the state-of-the-science in their respective areas and to discuss emerging gaps and research needs. The WGs identified gaps between the rapid advances in the types and applications of nanomaterials and the slower pace of human health and environmental risk science, along with strategies to reduce the uncertainties associated with calculating these risks.

  14. Usefulness of alternative integrative assessment methodologies in public decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, L. E.; Litchfield, J. W.; Currie, J. W.; McDonald, C. L.; Adams, R. C.

    1978-07-01

    Many diverse social, economic, and environmental effects are associated with each of the available energy development alternatives. The assessment of the costs, risks, and benefits of these energy development options is an important function of the U. S. Department of Energy. This task is more difficult when no single alternative is better than the others in all respects. This paper compares benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aids for these more difficult and more common assessment cases. PNL has developed expertise in making these assessments through its involvement since the Calvert Cliffs decision in both the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements and the development of methods to make these statements more thorough and responsive to the spirit of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Since 1973 PNL has had continuing efforts to quantify, value, and compare all of the major factors which influence the overall impacts of energy development options. An important part of this work has been the measurement and incorporation of the relative values which community groups place on these conflicting factors. Such difficult assessment problems could be approached in many ways including the use of benefit-cost or multi-attribute utility analysis. This paper addresses the following questions: (1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits. (2) If an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for selecting a method. (3) Is it possible to use one of the available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment. The answers to these questions presented in this report are applicable to most public decision problems.

  15. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  16. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  17. EU-CIS joint study project 2. Intervention criteria in CIS, risk assessments and non-radiological factors in decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedemann Jensen, P. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Demin, V.F. [Russian Reserch Centre `Kurchatov Inst.`, Moscow (Russian Federation); Konstantinov, Y.O. [Research Inst. of Radiation Hygiene, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Likhtarev, I.A. [Ukrainian Scientific Centre for Radiation Medicine, Kiev (Ukraine); Rolevich, I.V. [Chernobyl State Commiettee, Minsk (Belarus); Schneider, T. [Centre d`etudes sur l`Evaluation de la Protection dans le domaine Nucleaire, CEPN, Paris (France)

    1996-05-01

    An extensive radiation risk estimation methodology has recently been developed in Russia and used for estimates of risk in exposed populations in the republics of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Results based on demographic data for the three republics are presented and compared with risk estimates from the EU risk model ASQRAD. The intervention criteria in the CIS republics have been evolving since the Chernobyl accident. The development of criteria in each of the three republics has been analysed and the CIS-Criteria have been compared to international guidance on intervention. After a nuclear or radiological emergency both radiological and non-radiological protection factors will influence the level of protective actions being introduced. The role of non-radiological protection factors in the overall optimization of health protection is addressed. It is argued that optimization of the overall health protection is not a question of developing radiation radiation protection philosophy to fully include socio-psychological factors. It is rather a question of including these factors - in parallel with the radiological protection factors - in cooperation between radiation protection experts and psychological specialists under the responsibility of the decision maker. (au) 19 tabs., 10 ills., 45 refs.

  18. EU-CIS joint study project 2. Intervention criteria in CIS, risk assessments and non-radiological factors in decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedemann Jensen, P.; Demin, V.F.; Konstantinov, Y.O.; Likhtarev, I.A.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.

    1996-05-01

    An extensive radiation risk estimation methodology has recently been developed in Russia and used for estimates of risk in exposed populations in the republics of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Results based on demographic data for the three republics are presented and compared with risk estimates from the EU risk model ASQRAD. The intervention criteria in the CIS republics have been evolving since the Chernobyl accident. The development of criteria in each of the three republics has been analysed and the CIS-Criteria have been compared to international guidance on intervention. After a nuclear or radiological emergency both radiological and non-radiological protection factors will influence the level of protective actions being introduced. The role of non-radiological protection factors in the overall optimization of health protection is addressed. It is argued that optimization of the overall health protection is not a question of developing radiation radiation protection philosophy to fully include socio-psychological factors. It is rather a question of including these factors - in parallel with the radiological protection factors - in cooperation between radiation protection experts and psychological specialists under the responsibility of the decision maker. (au) 19 tabs., 10 ills., 45 refs

  19. Neural Correlates of Feedback Processing in Decision Making under Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beate eSchuermann

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Event-related brain potentials (ERP provide important information about the sensitivity of the brain to process varying risks. The aim of the present study was to determine how different risk levels are reflected in decision-related ERPs, namely the feedback-related negativity (FRN and the P300. Material and Methods. 20 participants conducted a probabilistic two-choice gambling task while an electroencephalogram was recorded. Choices were provided between a low-risk option yielding low rewards and low losses and a high-risk option yielding high rewards and high losses. While options differed in expected risks, they were equal in expected values and in feedback probabilities. Results. At the behavioral level, participants were generally risk-averse but modulated their risk-taking behavior according to reward history. An early positivity (P200 was enhanced on negative feedbacks in high-risk compared to low-risk options. With regard to the FRN, there were significant amplitude differences between positive and negative feedbacks in high-risk options, but not in low-risk options. While the FRN on negative feedbacks did not vary with decision riskiness, reduced amplitudes were found for positive feedbacks in high-risk relative to low-risk choices. P300 amplitudes were larger in high-risk decisions, and in an additive way, after negative compared to positive feedback. Discussion. The present study revealed significant influences of risk and valence processing on ERPs. FRN findings suggest that the reward prediction error signal is increased after high-risk decisions. The increased P200 on negative feedback in risky decisions suggests that large negative prediction errors are processed as early as in the P200 time range. The later P300 amplitude is sensitive to feedback valence as well as to the risk of a decision. Thus, the P300 carries additional information for reward processing, mainly the enhanced motivational significance of risky

  20. Perspectives on benefit-risk decision-making in vaccinology: Conference report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, M; Simondon, F; Saadatian-Elahi, M

    2016-01-01

    Benefit/risk (B/R) assessment methods are increasingly being used by regulators and companies as an important decision-making tool and their outputs as the basis of communication. B/R appraisal of vaccines, as compared with drugs, is different due to their attributes and their use. For example, vaccines are typically given to healthy people, and, for some vaccines, benefits exist both at the population and individual level. For vaccines in particular, factors such as the benefit afforded through herd effects as a function of vaccine coverage and consequently impact the B/R ratio, should also be taken into consideration and parameterized in B/R assessment models. Currently, there is no single agreed methodology for vaccine B/R assessment that can fully capture all these aspects. The conference "Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision-making in Vaccinology," held in Annecy (France), addressed these issues and provided recommendations on how to advance the science and practice of B/R assessment of vaccines and vaccination programs.

  1. Value assessment aid to complex decision making. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphress, G.; Lewis, E.

    1982-07-01

    Value assessment (VA) is a new decision aid that can improve the performance of decisionmakers confronted with multiple attributes and conflicting objectives. Managers who are not supported by formal decision aids turn to various ''satisficing'' or effort-reducing biases that can lead to serious errors in the decisionmaking process. Value assessment, on the other hand, is an optimizing approach to problem-solving behavior. VA helps decisionmakers overcome the tendency to turn to effort-reducing biases by reducing the complexity of making tradeoffs and weighing all available information. Many of the issues which confront modern electric utility managements are complex, multiple attribute problems which must be viewed from engineering, financial and socio-political perspectives simultaneously. Added to this are the complications contributed by factors like uncertainty, risk, incomplete information and conflicting objectives among the public it serves. This is the complex decisionmaking arena which VA is intended to support

  2. Decision making under ambiguity and under risk in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delazer, Margarete; Zamarian, Laura; Bonatti, Elisabeth; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Koppelstätter, Florian; Bodner, Thomas; Benke, Thomas; Trinka, Eugen

    2010-01-01

    Decision making is essential in everyday life. Though the importance of the mesial temporal lobe in emotional processing and feedback learning is generally recognized, decision making in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE) is almost unexplored so far. Twenty-eight consecutive epilepsy patients with drug resistant mTLE and fifty healthy controls performed decision tasks under initial ambiguity (participants have to learn by feedback to make advantageous decisions) and under risk (advantageous choices may be made by estimating risks and by rational strategies). A subgroup analysis compared the performance of patients affected by MRI-verified abnormalities of the hippocampus or amygdala. The effect of lesion side was also assessed. In decision under ambiguity, mTLE patients showed marked deficits and did not improve over the task. Patients with hippocampus abnormality and patients with amygdala abnormality showed comparable deficits. No difference was found between right and left TLE groups. In decision under risk, mTLE patients performed at the same level as controls. Results suggest that mTLE patients have difficulties in learning from feedback and in making decisions in uncertain, ambiguous situations. By contrast, they are able to make advantageous decisions when full information is given and risks, possible gains and losses are exactly defined.

  3. Managing cancer risk and decision making after kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, A C; Wong, G; Craig, J C; Chapman, J R

    2008-11-01

    Kidney transplant recipients are at higher risk of cancer at most sites, and cancer after transplantation causes considerable morbidity and mortality. To optimize long-term patient outcomes, clinicians balance the prospect of graft failure and dialysis, with competing risks of diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and the risk of malignancy. In this paper we critically examine the assumptions underpinning primary prevention, immunization, chemoprevention and screening programs, and highlight considerations when applying evidence to the kidney transplant population, and suggest a clinical research agenda that aims to define a rational approach to managing posttransplant cancer risk.

  4. Quantified reliability and risk assessment methodology in safety evaluation and licensing: survey of practice and trends in E.C. countries; partial contribution in decision making, perpective of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.F.

    1982-01-01

    Quantified reliability analysis of structures and systems and the quantified risk-concept is increasingly developed and applied in safety evaluation and in the licensing/regulatory process where deterministic approaches are however still predominant. A description of the types of application and a survey of the diversified opinions and the problem areas (e.g. the validity of input data, uncertainties in consequence modelling, human factors, common mode failures, etc.) are given. The significance of quantified risk assessment and comparisons, as one of the contributors in the solution to acceptability of modern technology such as nuclear power production, is discussed. Other contributions, such as benefit assessment and cost-efficiency of risk reduction, are also put into perspective within the decision-making process and in the problem of actual acceptance of new technologies. The growing need of developing and agreeing on overall safety objectives (how safe is safe enough) is finally discussed, in the light of the increasing diversity of approaches in the interconnected areas of accident hypotheses/sequences, siting parameters and technical bases for emergency planning; the latter problem being also closely connected to decisional processes for acceptability and to actual acceptance

  5. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2001-07-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards.

  6. Perception and communication of risk in decision making by persons with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Mabel; Savage, Beverley; Taylor, Brian J

    2017-01-01

    Communication of risks must involve people with dementia meaningfully to ensure informed and inclusive decision-making processes. This qualitative study explored concepts of risk from the perspective of persons with dementia and their experiences of communicating risk with family members and professionals. Data was analysed using grounded theory. Seventeen people in Northern Ireland with mild-moderate dementia who had recently made a decision about their daily life or care involving consideration of risks were interviewed between November 2015 and November 2016. A wide range of actual or feared risks were identified relating to: daily activities; hobbies and socialising; mental health and medicines; and risks to and from others. 'Risk' often held emotional rather than probability connotations. Constructive communications to address issues were presented. Problem-solving models of both active and passive decision-making about risks were evident. Effective risk communication in informed decision-making processes about health and social care is discussed.

  7. Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1984-01-01

    The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

  8. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  9. Introduction to the special issue: Intuition and affect in risk perception and decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Gisela Boehm; Wibecke Brun

    2008-01-01

    (from the introduction) Intuition and affect have been neglected topics in the literature on human judgment and decision making for a long time. Judgmental processes involved in risk perception and decision making have traditionally been conceptualized as cognitive in nature, being based upon a rational and deliberate evaluation of the alternatives at hand. This picture started to change in the early 1980s when decision researchers looked beyond rational, deliberate, and cognitive processes a...

  10. Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

    2014-01-01

    Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

  11. The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

  12. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    OpenAIRE

    Mkael Symmonds; Julian J Emmanuel; Megan E Drew; Rachel L Batterham; Raymond J Dolan

    2010-01-01

    Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regio...

  13. Plant specific risk informed decision making -a vision for Indian PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guptan, Rajee; Mohan, Nalini; Ghadge, S.G.; Bajaj, S.S.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) safety is to ensure and demonstrate that the risk from NPP to public and plant personnel is acceptably low. As a supplement to the deterministic approach, use of probabilistic techniques has been gaining grounds. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a popular international practice to calculate plant risk to the public, environment and plant personnel, in the event of an accident taking place in the plant. The risk posed by Nuclear Reactors to the Public at large is a very important issue in the public acceptance of a Nuclear Power Programme in any country. Risk Definition, generally accepted at present as the measure of possibility for an accidental event and severity of its effects to occur, simultaneously comprises both the probability (frequency) of potential damage occurrence and extent of this damage. NPCIL' s vision is to provide safe, reliable and cost effective energy to the nation by ensuring safe operation of the plants, limiting radiation exposure to plant personnel and public within prescribed limits. To achieve this vision our mission is to enhance the technical competency, resources and the awareness towards improved safety culture specific to Probabilistic Safety Assessment for applying PSA Studies to Risk Informed Decision making. This mission translates into the goal of completion of full scope PSA, with the co-operation and synergetic efforts of the Head quarters and Operating Station experts. NPCIL will then be self sufficient in applying Probabilistic Studies in Risk Informed Decision making to minimize risk and back fitting design changes to optimize the existing design and operating practices, thus providing for safe, reliable and cost effective energy to the nation. (author)

  14. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  15. Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

  16. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the

  17. Reasoning and mathematical skills contribute to normatively superior decision making under risk: evidence from the game of dice task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertl, Marie-Theres; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we assessed to what extent reasoning improves performance in decision making under risk in a laboratory gambling task (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D). We also investigated to what degree individuals with above average mathematical competence decide better than those with average mathematical competence. Eighty-five participants performed the GDT-D and several numerical tasks. Forty-two individuals were asked to calculate the probabilities and the outcomes associated with the different options of the GDT-D before performing it. The other 43 individuals performed the GDT-D at the beginning of the test session. Both reasoning and mathematical competence had a positive effect on decision making. Different measures of mathematical competence correlated with advantageous performance in decision making. Results suggest that decision making under explicit risk conditions improves when individuals are encouraged to reflect about the contingencies of a decision situation. Interventions based on numerical reasoning may also be useful for patients with difficulties in decision making.

  18. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  19. Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  20. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  1. Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

    2013-01-01

    We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

  2. Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Mavis F.

    2001-01-01

    This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

  3. Balancing risk in regulatory decision making: the Port Granby Project case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, L.; Kleb, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the trade-offs that are routinely considered in regulatory decision making, and the policy basis and methods for making those trade-offs. Regulatory decisions under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA) normally consider potential risks to the environment, human health and safety, if a project were to proceed. There is only limited consideration, under such circumstances, of the risks to the environment, human health and safety if the project were not to proceed. The focus is on the potential adverse effects of the project, except in the event of an emergency, where the focus shifts to the economic and other beneficial effects. The Port Granby long-term low-level radioactive waste management project is a project to clean up and provide appropriate local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the Port Granby, Ontario area. Approximately 0.4 M m 3 of LLRW, presently located at the Port Granby Waste Management Facility, is to be transported to a newly constructed long-term waste management facility ~700 m north of the bluff face where the facility is located. Accordingly, the project is subject to environmental assessment and licensing processes under the CEAA and the NSCA, respectively. While the Port Granby Project does not represent an emergency situation, it does represent a situation that could result in a significant degree of environmental risk if the project were not to proceed. Over the course of the various studies that have been undertaken at the Waste Management Facility, it has become apparent that the facility is subject to erosion and gullying along the bluff face. The potential for the leaching of contaminants from the existing facility and the erosion of the Lake Ontario bluffs are recognized as ongoing risks that will continue and potentially worsen if the project does not proceed. The economic and other considerations that

  4. Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

  5. Risk-based decision making: The East Fork Poplar Creek case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, D.R.J.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W.; Parkhurst, B.R.; Teed, R.S.

    1999-12-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment revealed that methylmercury released from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 weapons facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, poses moderate risks to mink and kingfishers residing near the receiving waters of East Fork Poplar Creek. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) released from this facility pose severe risks to mink but little risk to kingfishers. The objective of this study was to use a risk-based decision-making approach to select remedial cleanup levels for each of these contaminants. The authors conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate total daily intakes of each contaminant by mink (mercury and PCBs) and kingfishers (PCBs only) for a range of exposure-reduction scenarios. The resulting exposure distributions were then integrated with their respective dose-response curves to estimate postremediation risks. The results indicated that total mercury levels in surface water would need to be reduced from current levels (mean = 0.225 {micro}g/L) to 0.03 to 0.05 {micro}g/L to reduce risks to very low levels (<5% probability of {ge}20% mortality) for both mink and kingfishers. If interested parties define acceptable risk as, for example, a 20% probability of {gt} 10% mortality, then mercury levels would need to be reduced to 0.14 {micro}g/L. The PCBs analysis indicated that reducing water-borne exposures would produce only a modest reduction in risk to mink because much of the current exposure is through terrestrial exposure pathways.

  6. Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-11-01

    Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Perceived risks around choice and decision making at end-of-life: a literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, F; Gott, M; Ingleton, C

    2013-01-01

    the World Health Organization identifies meeting patient choice for care as central to effective palliative care delivery. Little is known about how choice, which implies an objective balancing of options and risks, is understood and enacted through decision making at end-of-life. to explore how perceptions of 'risk' may inform decision-making processes at end-of-life. an integrative literature review was conducted between January and February 2010. Papers were reviewed using Hawker et al.'s criteria and evaluated according to clarity of methods, analysis and evidence of ethical consideration. All literature was retained as background data, but given the significant international heterogeneity the final analysis specifically focused on the UK context. the databases Medline, PsycINFO, Assia, British Nursing Index, High Wire Press and CINAHL were explored using the search terms decision*, risk, anxiety, hospice and palliative care, end-of-life care and publication date of 1998-2010. thematic analysis of 25 papers suggests that decision making at end-of-life is multifactorial, involving a balancing of risks related to caregiver support; service provider resources; health inequalities and access; challenges to information giving; and perceptions of self-identity. Overall there is a dissonance in understandings of choice and decision making between service providers and service users. the concept of risk acknowledges the factors that shape and constrain end-of-life choices. Recognition of perceived risks as a central factor in decision making would be of value in acknowledging and supporting meaningful decision making processes for patients with palliative care needs and their families.

  8. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  9. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  10. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  11. Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

  12. Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

    2018-02-21

    The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been

  13. Risk-based decision-making: A reality at the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halford, V.E.; Nitschke, R.L.; Hula, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Risk Analysis and Risk Management are major components of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's (INEL's) environmental restoration and waste management program. These tools help define responsible and cost-effective approaches to address potential human health and environmental risks from past operational practices. These techniques along with stake holder involvement, play a key role in the decision-making process which involves the US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE), the US Environmental Protection Agency Region 10 (EPA), and the State of Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (IDHW), hereafter referred to as the agencies. An example of how this process works is Pad A, an above-ground mixed waste disposal site composed mainly of transuranic-contaminated evaporation pond salts. The site was constructed in 1972 for the disposal of solid radioactive wastes. A Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) baseline risk assessment was conducted to determine the incremental cancer risk and potential for adverse health effects to the public and the impacts to the environment if no action was performed. The risk characterization indicated that the carcinogenic risk for current and future hypothetical scenarios was below or within the NCP acceptable risk range. There was a potential 10 year window for an adverse health effect to an infant from nitrate contamination of the groundwater in about 250 years. Based on these results, a responsible and sound decision was reached to maintain and recontour the existing soil cover and to perform monitoring to confirm modeling assumptions

  14. Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

  15. Assessing ethical problem solving by reasoning rather than decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Tsuen-Chiuan; Harasym, Peter H; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Donnon, Tyrone

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of ethical problem solving in medicine has been controversial and challenging. The purposes of this study were: (i) to create a new instrument to measure doctors' decisions on and reasoning approach towards resolving ethical problems; (ii) to evaluate the scores generated by the new instrument for their reliability and validity, and (iii) to compare doctors' ethical reasoning abilities between countries and among medical students, residents and experts. This study used 15 clinical vignettes and the think-aloud method to identify the processes and components involved in ethical problem solving. Subjects included volunteer ethics experts, postgraduate Year 2 residents and pre-clerkship medical students. The interview data were coded using the instruments of the decision score and Ethical Reasoning Inventory (ERI). The ERI assessed the quality of ethical reasoning for a particular case (Part I) and for an individual globally across all the vignettes (Part II). There were 17 Canadian and 32 Taiwanese subjects. Based on the Canadian standard, the decision scores between Taiwanese and Canadian subjects differed significantly, but made no discrimination among the three levels of expertise. Scores on the ERI Parts I and II, which reflect doctors' reasoning quality, differed between countries and among different levels of expertise in Taiwan, providing evidence of construct validity. In addition, experts had a greater organised knowledge structure and considered more relevant variables in the process of arriving at ethical decisions than did residents or students. The reliability of ERI scores was 0.70-0.99 on Part I and 0.75-0.80 on Part II. Expertise in solving ethical problems could not be differentiated by the decisions made, but could be differentiated according to the reasoning used to make those decisions. The difference between Taiwanese and Canadian experts suggests that cultural considerations come into play in the decisions that are made in the

  16. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  17. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-hui LIU

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult × 2 (Frame: positive and negative × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level, with the risky probability as a control variable and the decision-making scores as dependent variables. Results The results revealed that older adults demonstrated much more irrational decision-making (framing effect. In the detail, the risky decision-making score of the older adults in the positive framing was 5.13 ± 2.12, and 6.55 ± 1.05 in the negative framing [F (1, 118 = 21.470, P = 0.000; η2 = 0.156], while the risky decision-making score of the younger adults in the positive framing was 3.18 ± 2.49, and 5.00 ± 2.41 in the negative framing [F (1, 230 = 31.260, P = 0.000; η 2 = 0.121]. Meanwhile, the older adults showed risk seeking for the life-death scenario [F (1, 350 = 4.820, P = 0.029]. Conclusions These results suggested that the hypofunction in orbital and medial prefrontal cortex and amygdale in older adults might be the underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, the susceptibility to expected value (EV of the older adults might decrease although their scores in risky probability understanding were not significantly different from the younger adults. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2014.03.008

  18. Evaluation and selection of decision-making methods to assess landfill mining projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland

    2015-09-01

    For the first time in Austria, fundamental technological and economic studies on recovering secondary raw materials from large landfills have been carried out, based on the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project. A main focus of the research - and the subject of this article - was to develop an assessment or decision-making procedure that allows landfill owners to thoroughly examine the feasibility of a landfill mining project in advance. Currently there are no standard procedures that would sufficiently cover all the multiple-criteria requirements. The basic structure of the multiple attribute decision making process was used to narrow down on selection, conceptual design and assessment of suitable procedures. Along with a breakdown into preliminary and main assessment, the entire foundation required was created, such as definitions of requirements to an assessment method, selection and accurate description of the various assessment criteria and classification of the target system for the present 'landfill mining' vs. 'retaining the landfill in after-care' decision-making problem. Based on these studies, cost-utility analysis and the analytical-hierarchy process were selected from the range of multiple attribute decision-making procedures and examined in detail. Overall, both methods have their pros and cons with regard to their use for assessing landfill mining projects. Merging these methods or connecting them with single-criteria decision-making methods (like the net present value method) may turn out to be reasonable and constitute an appropriate assessment method. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

    2012-01-01

    Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (paffect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  20. Making effective links to decision-making: Key challenges for health impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Eva; Francis, Sarah

    2005-01-01

    This paper draws on an exploratory research study to examine the effectiveness of health impact assessments in Wales. Through the review of five case study health impact assessments the research identified a number of benefits of the process in terms of skills and knowledge development amongst participants. The indirect contributions to decision-making were also evident including the way in which health impact assessment provided useful insights into the local community's perspective and raised awareness about the wider determinants of health. The process was also useful in establishing a dialogue between different stakeholders, which indirectly assisted decision-making and implementation. The direct links between health impact assessment and decision-making were more difficult to trace and this paper puts forward a number of suggestions for making those links more transparent. Suggestions include integrating decision-makers and clarifying the intended links to decision-making at the start of the health impact assessment process. Mainstreaming health impact assessment so that it is triggered as a routine part of all decision-making would help ensure it stands the best chance of informing decisions

  1. Cognitive judgment bias interacts with risk based decision making and sensitivity to dopaminergic challenge in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Drozd

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although cognitive theory has implicated judgement bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the ‘small/certain’ lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the ‘large/risky’ lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the ‘large/risky’ lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ traits. Because dopamine has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ animals using the apomorphine (2mg/kg s.c. sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in ‘optimists’ compared with ‘pessimists’ and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgement bias, risky decision-making and dopamine are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioural traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models.

  2. A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coteur, Ine, E-mail: ine.coteur@ilvo.vlaanderen.be [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); Marchand, Fleur [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); University of Antwerp, Ecosystem Management Research Group and IMDO, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Debruyne, Lies; Dalemans, Floris [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); Lauwers, Ludwig [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); University of Ghent, Department of Agricultural Economics, Coupure Links 53, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2016-09-15

    Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers, advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming.

  3. A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coteur, Ine; Marchand, Fleur; Debruyne, Lies; Dalemans, Floris; Lauwers, Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers, advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming

  4. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  5. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Crisis Information-Sharing Strategy in Support of Situational Awareness, Understanding Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure, Regional Resilience, Preparedness, Risk Assessment/mitigation, Decision-Making and Everyday Operational Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.

    2017-12-01

    The principal function of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse is to provide State and Federal disaster response managers, and the scientific and engineering communities, with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The overarching problem highlighted in discussions with Clearinghouse partners is the confusion and frustration of many of the Operational Area representatives, and some regional utilities throughout the state on what software applications they should be using and maintaining to meet State, Federal, and Local, requirements, and for what purposes, and how to deal with the limitations of these applications. This problem is getting in the way of making meaningful progress on developing multi-application interoperability and the necessary supporting cross-sector information-sharing procedures and dialogue on essential common operational information that entities need to share for different all hazards missions and related operational activities associated with continuity, security, and resilience. The XchangeCore based system the Clearinghouse is evolving helps deal with this problem, and does not compound it by introducing yet another end-user application; there is no end-user interface with which one views XchangeCore, all viewing of data provided through XchangeCore occurs in and on existing, third-party operational applications. The Clearinghouse efforts with XchangeCore are compatible with FEMA, which is currently using XchangeCore-provided data for regional and National Business Emergency Operations Center (source of business information sharing during emergencies) response. Also important, and should be emphasized, is that information-sharing is not just for response, but for preparedness, risk assessment/mitigation decision-making, and everyday operational needs for situational awareness. In other words, the benefits of the Clearinghouse

  7. Risk communication and decision-making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Ann H

    2017-08-01

    Risk communication surrounding the prevention of invasive breast cancer entails not only understanding of the disease, risks and opportunities for intervention. But it also requires understanding and implementation of optimal strategies for communication with patients who are making these decisions. In this article, available evidence for the issues surrounding risk communication and decision making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer are reviewed and strategies for improvement are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The angular gyrus and visuospatial attention in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Bettina; Cen, Danlu; Walsh, Vincent

    2014-12-01

    Recent neuroimaging studies on decision-making under risk indicate that the angular gyrus (AG) is sensitive to the probability and variance of outcomes during choice. A separate body of research has established the AG as a key area in visual attention. The current study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in healthy volunteers to test whether the causal contribution of the AG to decision-making is independent of or linked to the guidance of visuospatial attention. A within-subject design compared decision making on a laboratory gambling task under three conditions: following rTMS to the AG, following rTMS to the premotor cortex (PMC, as an active control condition) and without TMS. The task presented two different trial types, 'visual' and 'auditory' trials, which entailed a high versus minimal demand for visuospatial attention, respectively. Our results showed a systematic effect of rTMS to the AG upon decision-making behavior in visual trials. Without TMS and following rTMS to the control region, decision latencies reflected the odds of winning; this relationship was disrupted by rTMS to the AG. In contrast, no significant effects of rTMS to the AG (or to the PMC) upon choice behavior in auditory trials were found. Thus, rTMS to the AG affected decision-making only in the task condition requiring visuospatial attention. The current findings suggest that the AG contributes to decision-making by guiding attention to relevant information about reward and punishment in the visual environment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The availability of public information for insurance risk decision-making in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nigel; Gibbs, Mark; Chadwick, Ben; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    At present, there is a wealth of hazard and exposure data which cannot or is not being full used by risk modelling community. The reasons for this under-utilisation of data are many: restrictive and complex data policies and pricing, risks involved in information sharing, technological shortcomings, and variable resolution of data, particularly with catastrophe models only recently having been adjusted to consume high-resolution exposure data. There is therefore an urgent need for the development of common modelling practices and applications for climate and geo-hazard risk assessment, all of which would be highly relevant to public policy, disaster risk management and financial risk transfer communities. This paper will present a methodology to overcome these obstacles and to review the availability of hazard data at research institutions in a consistent format. Such a methodology would facilitate the collation of hazard and other auxiliary data, as well as present data within a geo-spatial framework suitable for public and commercial use. The methodology would also review the suitability of datasets and how these could be made more freely available in conjunction with other research institutions in order to present a consistent data standard. It is clear that an understanding of these different issues of data and data standards have significant ramifications when used in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. Scrutinising the issue of data standards also allows the data to be evaluated and re-evaluated for its gaps, omissions, fitness, purpose, availability and precision. Not only would there be a quality check on data, but it would also help develop and fine-tune the tools used for decision-making and assessment of risk.

  11. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  12. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  13. Potential of life cycle assessment to support environmental decision making at commercial dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meul, M.; Middelaar, van C.E.; Boer, de I.J.M.; Passel, van S.; Fremaut, D.; Haesaert, G.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the potential of life cycle assessment (LCA) to support environmental decision making at commercial dairy farms. To achieve this, we follow a four-step method that allows converting environmental assessment results using LCA into case-specific advice for farmers. This is

  14. Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Linda D.; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.

    2017-01-01

    Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory. PMID:29225669

  15. Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Linda D; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P

    2017-05-01

    Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory.

  16. Informed Decision Making: Assessment of the Quality of Physician Communication about Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Montgomery, Jeffrey S; Rovner, David R; Scherer, Laura D; Whitfield, Jesse; Kahn, Valerie C; Merkle, Edgar C; Ubel, Peter A; Fagerlin, Angela

    2015-11-01

    Little is known about how physicians present diagnosis and treatment planning in routine practice in preference-sensitive treatment decisions. We evaluated completeness and quality of informed decision making in localized prostate cancer post biopsy encounters. We analyzed audio-recorded office visits of 252 men with presumed localized prostate cancer (Gleason 6 and Gleason 7 scores) who were seeing 45 physicians at 4 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Data were collected between September 2008 and May 2012 in a trial of 2 decision aids (DAs). Braddock's previously validated Informed Decision Making (IDM) system was used to measure quality. Latent variable models for ordinal data examined the relationship of IDM score to treatment received. Mean IDM score showed modest quality (7.61±2.45 out of 18) and high variability. Treatment choice and risks and benefits were discussed in approximately 95% of encounters. However, in more than one-third of encounters, physicians provided a partial set of treatment options and omitted surveillance as a choice. Informing quality was greater in patients treated with surveillance (β = 1.1, p = .04). Gleason score (7 vs 6) and lower age were often cited as reasons to exclude surveillance. Patient preferences were elicited in the majority of cases, but not used to guide treatment planning. Encounter time was modestly correlated with IDM score (r = 0.237, p = .01). DA type was not associated with IDM score. Physicians informed patients of options and risks and benefits, but infrequently engaged patients in core shared decision-making processes. Despite patients having received DAs, physicians rarely provided an opportunity for preference-driven decision making. More attention to the underused patient decision-making and engagement elements could result in improved shared decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  18. Decision Making under Risk Condition in Patients with Parkinson’s Disease: A Behavioural and fMRI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Labudda

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to study whether previously described impairment in decision making under risky conditions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD is affected by deficits in using information about potential incentives or by processing feedback (in terms of fictitious gains and losses following each decision. Additionally, we studied whether the neural correlates of using explicit information in decision making under risk differ between PD patients and healthy subjects. We investigated ten cognitively intact PD patients and twelve healthy subjects with the Game of Dice Task (GDT to assess risky decision making, and with an fMRI paradigm to analyse the neural correlates of information integration in the deliberative decision phase. Behaviourally, PD patients showed selective impairment in the GDT but not on the fMRI task that did not include a feedback component. Healthy subjects exhibited lateral prefrontal, anterior cingulate and parietal activations when integrating decision-relevant information. Despite similar behavioural patterns on the fMRI task, patients exhibited reduced parietal activation. Behavioural results suggest that PD patients’ deficits in risky decision making are dominated by impaired feedback utilization not compensable by intact cognitive functions. Our fMRI results suggest similarities but also differences in neural correlates when using explicit information for the decision process, potentially indicating different strategy application even if the interfering feedback component is excluded.

  19. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta Simioni

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS. There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1 The Wheel of Fortune (WOF, which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2 The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005 and greater risk aversion (p<0.001. They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01, although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01 and deliberation time (p = 0.0002, the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  20. The relationship between burnout and risk-taking in workplace decision-making and decision-making style

    OpenAIRE

    Michailidis, E; Banks, AP

    2016-01-01

    The study aimed to investigate what type of decision styles are exhibited by employees who experience burnout. Using a Work Risk Inventory (WRI), developed for this study, which included generic workplace scenarios, it was also explored whether employees experiencing burnout take more risky decisions. Risk was conceptualised as the adoption of threatening decisions towards one’s reputation at work, job performance and job security. The mediating effect of the likelihood and seriousness of the...

  1. Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

  2. Risk perception, trust and public engagement in nuclear decision-making in Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mah, Daphne Ngar-yin; Hills, Peter; Tao, Julia

    2014-01-01

    The extent to which nuclear energy can be a feasible energy option has re-emerged as a subject of widespread debate following the Fukushima accident in Japan. However, relatively little is known about how public inputs can improve nuclear decision-making. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of public opinions regarding nuclear energy by examining its risk perception, trust and public engagement dimensions. Based on a survey of Hong Kong residents (n=509), we make some observations. Firstly, we offer empirical evidence that affirms the theoretical connections between risk perception, trust, and public engagement in the context of nuclear energy. Secondly, our logistic regression analysis indicates that demographics, trust, and perceptions of the efficacy of public engagement are factors explaining perceptions of greater risks and nuclear opposition. Thirdly, our conceptual model sheds light on the complexity of the trust concept, and specifies aspects of trust that are influential in the contexts of risk perception and nuclear choices. Our findings suggest that the Hong Kong government must ensure trust building receives prominent attention in nuclear decision-making, and that it should avoid excessive reliance on the business sector and should assume a key role for itself in enhancing trust in nuclear decision-making. - Highlights: • Risk perception, trust and public engagement matter to nuclear decision-making. • Our logistic regression analysis found that demographics, trust and perception of public engagement are the factors that explain risk perception and nuclear choice in Hong Kong. • Our conceptual model specifics aspects of trust that are influential

  3. Career Development Strivings: Assessing Goals and Motivation in Career Decision-Making and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dik, Bryan J.; Sargent, Adam M.; Steger, Michael F.

    2008-01-01

    This article describes and demonstrates a novel approach to assessing goals and motives among individuals engaged in the career decision-making and planning process. Participants generated five career development strivings, rated each striving along several dimensions (self-efficacy, outcome expectations, sense of calling, spiritual significance,…

  4. Setting Proficiency Standards for School Leadership Assessment: An Examination of Cut Score Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cravens, Xiu Chen; Goldring, Ellen B.; Porter, Andrew C.; Polikoff, Morgan S.; Murphy, Joseph; Elliott, Stephen N.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Performance evaluation informs professional development and helps school personnel improve student learning. Although psychometric literature indicates that a rational, sound, and coherent standard-setting process adds to the credibility of an assessment, few studies have empirically examined the decision-making process. This article…

  5. Assessing Students' Performances in Decision-Making: Coping Strategies of Biology Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Benjamin; Hößle, Corinna

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making in socioscientific issues (SSI) constitutes a real challenge for both biology teachers and learners. The assessment of students' performances in SSIs constitutes a problem, especially for biology teachers. The study at hand was conducted in Germany and uses a qualitative approach following the research procedures of grounded theory…

  6. The RISAP-study: a complex intervention in risk communication and shared decision-making in general practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Pia; Edwards, Adrian G K; Hansen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    decision satisfaction (Provider Decision Process Assessment Instrument). The patients will receive a questionnaire at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. It includes questions about adherence to chosen treatment (Morisky Compliance Scale), self-rated health (SF-12), enablement (Patient Enablement Instrument...... training are needed. Aim:1) to systematically develop, describe and evaluate a complex intervention comprising a training programme for GPs in risk communication and shared decision-making, 2) to evaluate the effect of the training programme on real-life consultations between GPs and patients with high......), and risk communication and decision-making effectiveness (COMRADE Scale). Prescriptions, contacts to the health services, and cholesterol level will be drawn from the registers.In each group, 12 consultations will be observed and tape-recorded. The patients from these 24 consultations will be interviewed...

  7. Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)

  8. Executive function, approach sensitivity, and emotional decision making as influences on risk behaviors in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Megan E; Blair, Clancy; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2008-05-01

    Relations among executive function, behavioral approach sensitivity, emotional decision making, and risk behaviors (alcohol use, drug use, and delinquent behavior) were examined in single female college students (N = 72). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated a significant Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction in which higher levels of alcohol use were associated with the combination of greater approach tendency and better working memory. This Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction was also marginally significant for drug use and delinquency. Poor emotional decision making, as measured by a gambling task, was also associated with higher levels of alcohol use, but only for individuals low in inhibitory control. Findings point to the complexity of relations among aspects of self-regulation and personality and provide much needed data on neuropsychological correlates of risk behaviors in a nonclinical population.

  9. Clinical Decision-Making Following Disasters: Efficient Identification of PTSD Risk in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Carla Kmett; Cohen, Joseph R; Adams, Zachary W; Youngstrom, Eric A; Soltis, Kathryn; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to utilize a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach in order to improve clinical decision-making for adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Specifically we assessed theoretically-driven individual, interpersonal, and event-related vulnerability factors to determine which indices were most accurate in forecasting PTSD. Furthermore, we aimed to translate these etiological findings by identifying clinical cut-off recommendations for relevant vulnerability factors. Our study consisted of structured phone-based clinical interviews with 2000 adolescent-parent dyads living within a 5-mile radius of tornados that devastated Joplin, MO, and northern Alabama in Spring 2011. Demographics, tornado incident characteristics, prior trauma, mental health, and family support and conflict were assessed. A subset of youth completed two behavioral assessment tasks online to assess distress tolerance and risk-taking behavior. ROC analyses indicated four variables that significantly improved PTSD diagnostic efficiency: Lifetime depression (AUC = .90), trauma history (AUC = .76), social support (AUC = .70), and family conflict (AUC = .72). Youth were 2-3 times more likely to have PTSD if they had elevated scores on any of these variables. Of note, event-related characteristics (e.g., property damage) were not related to PTSD diagnostic status. The present study adds to the literature by making specific recommendations for empirically-based, efficient disaster-related PTSD assessment for adolescents following a natural disaster. Implications for practice and future trauma-related developmental psychopathology research are discussed.

  10. The characteristics of decision making, potential to take risks, and personality of college students with Internet addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Hsiao, Sigmund; Liu, Gin-Chung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Yang, Ming-Jen; Yen, Cheng-Fang

    2010-01-30

    This study aimed to identify risk factors involved in Internet addiction. A total of 216 college students (132 males and 84 females) were given the following: (a) the diagnostic interview for Internet addiction, (b) the Iowa gambling test for decision-making deficits, (c) the Balloon Analog Risk Test (BART) to assess risk-taking tendencies, and (d) the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ) for personality characteristics. The results revealed the following: (a) 49% of males and 17% of females were addicted, (b) the addicted students tended to select more advantageous cards in the last 40 cards of the Iowa test, indicating better decision making, (c) no difference was found for the BART, indicating that addicted subjects were not more likely to engage in risk-taking behaviors and (d) TPQ scores showed lower reward dependence (RD) and higher novelty seeking (NS) for the addicts. Their higher performance on the Iowa gambling test differentiates the Internet addiction group from the substance use and pathologic gambling groups that have been shown to be deficient in decision making on the Iowa test. Thus, students that fit these characteristics should be closely monitored to prevent Internet addiction.

  11. Decision making under risk in the case of nuclear power system development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelescu, M.; Szakats, A.; Ursu, I.

    1981-01-01

    The theory of risk preference as applied to decision making in the case of a nuclear power system consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs, is examined. An econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of a given time interval for every possible state of any of nine development alternatives. Optimal development alternatives of the nuclear system in three cases: risk-preference, risk-indifference and risk-aversion are obtained and the solution in the last case is discussed in detail. (U.K.)

  12. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  13. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  14. Risky Decision Making in a Laboratory Driving Task Is Associated with Health Risk Behaviors during Late Adolescence but Not Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Kahn, Rachel; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Chiu, Pearl; Steinberg, Laurence; King-Casas, Brooks

    2016-01-01

    Adolescence is characterized by increasing incidence of health risk behaviors, including experimentation with drugs and alcohol. To fill the gap in our understanding of the associations between risky decision-making and health risk behaviors, we investigated associations between laboratory-based risky decision-making using the Stoplight task and…

  15. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tungju Wu; Yenchun Jim Wu; Hsientang Tsai; Yibin Li

    2017-01-01

    Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT) of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires o...

  16. Intelligent Aircraft Damage Assessment, Trajectory Planning, and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Israel; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin

    Situational awareness and learning are necessary to identify and select the optimal set of mutually non-exclusive hypothesis in order to maximize mission performance and adapt system behavior accordingly. This paper presents a hierarchical and decentralized approach for integrated damage assessment and trajectory planning in aircraft with uncertain navigational decision-making. Aircraft navigation can be safely accomplished by properly addressing the following: decision-making, obstacle perception, aircraft state estimation, and aircraft control. When in-flight failures or damage occur, rapid and precise decision-making under imprecise information is required in order to regain and maintain control of the aircraft. To achieve planned aircraft trajectory and complete safe landing, the uncertainties in system dynamics of the damaged aircraft need to be learned and incorporated at the level of motion planning. The damaged aircraft is simulated via a simplified kinematic model. The different sources and perspectives of uncertainties in the damage assessment process and post-failure trajectory planning are presented and classified. The decision-making process for an emergency motion planning and landing is developed via the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The objective of the trajectory planning is to arrive at a target position while maximizing the safety of the aircraft given uncertain conditions. Simulations are presented for an emergency motion planning and landing that takes into account aircraft dynamics, path complexity, distance to landing site, runway characteristics, and subjective human decision.

  17. Risk perception and strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system

  18. Risk Taking and Decision Making in Kidney Paired Donation: A Qualitative Study by Semistructured Interviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baines, L S; Dulku, H; Jindal, R M; Papalois, V

    2018-06-01

    Despite excellent outcomes of kidney paired donation (KPD), little is known about how a patient's frame (apply cognitive bias) or weight (attribute value) and concerns relating to risk, justice, and equity affect his or her decision-making process. A pilot study consisting of 3 KPD transplant recipients and 3 KPD kidney donors in the last year was conducted to identify and explore themes in decision making and risk taking. The pilot study was followed by the main study comprised of 20 recipients who had already undergone KPD transplantation and 20 donors who had undergone donor nephrectomy. We conducted semistructured interviews in this cohort and analyzed the data thematically. Each donor-recipient pair was interviewed together to facilitate dyadic conversation and provide deeper insight into the decision-making process leading to transplant and donation. Common themes to both recipient and donor decision making included quality of life; characteristics of the unknown donor and post-transplant expectations. Recipient-specific themes included failure to reach life span milestones, experiences of fellow patients, and altruistic desire to expand the donor pool. Donor-specific themes included balancing existing life commitments with the recipient's need for a kidney, equity and mental accounting in kidney exchange (comparable quality of the kidney received versus the kidney donated), and logistical justice for the recipient. Donors and recipients frame and weight the concepts of risk, justice, and equity differently. This may have direct implications to facilitating patient-centered communication and engagement in KPD pairs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Pierre-André; Blum, Robert Wm; Benaroyo, Lazare; Zermatten, Jean; Baltag, Valentina

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Electricity, health and the environment: Comparative assessment in support of decision making. Proceedings of a symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The main objective of the Symposium was to enhance and strengthen information sharing and co-operation between interested and affected parties in the field of electricity demand analysis and supply planning, aiming at implementing sustainable policies in the power sector, taking into account economic, social, health and environmental aspects. To meet this objective, the Symposium sessions addressed the following topics: key issues in the decision making process; assessment of health and environmental impacts; integrated framework for comparative assessment; implementation of comparative assessment; country case studies; and comparative assessment in decision making. A closing round table focused on challenges for international co-operation aiming at implementation of sustainable electricity policies. In addition to the main sessions, poster presentations illustrated results from comparative assessment studies carried out in different countries, and software demonstration provided opportunities for participants to gain information about state of the art computer tools, databases and analytical models that are available for use in decision support studies. Refs, figs, tabs

  1. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyriakos Souliotis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA. PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI, an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients’ involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus.

  2. Assessment of primary school students’ decision-making related to tactical contexts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Guitiérrez

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to assess and understand prior tactical knowledge and game performance as well as the relationship between the different components of game performance in invasion games. The participants (N = 22; girls: 13; boys: 9 were Physical Education students (ages: 11-12 with a low expertise in invasion games (they were selected among those with no other background in invasion games than PE lessons. Their game performance was videotaped, after which measures of motor execution and cognitive components were developed from observational analysis. Decision- making was measured on two levels: a decision-making restricted to the performance of technical-tactical skills; and b decision-making focused on adapting to the offensive tactical contexts of the game. Participants played an eight-minute-long 4-versus-4 generic invasion game. The latter was designed to meet both developmental needs and previous learning, so interference between motor execution ability and decision-making performance was minimized. The findings revealed that these students already had a basic concept of offensive and defensive game situations, both on-the-ball and off-the-ball. No significant differences were found between players’ performance in penetrating-the-defense contexts and in those where they kept ball possession. The findings additionally highlighted the existence of significant relationships between decision-making and skill execution in getting open, tackling, marking off-ball and double teaming. Other links between game performance components are discussed throughout the paper. The importance of assessing game performance taking into account tactical contexts is also supported (Gutiérrez, González, García-López, & Mitchell, 2011, as well as some of the GCA pedagogical principles, e.g. the use of modified games (Oslin & Mitchell, 2006.

  3. Assessing Patient Participation in Health Policy Decision-Making in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliotis, Kyriakos; Agapidaki, Eirini; Peppou, Lily Evangelia; Tzavara, Chara; Samoutis, George; Theodorou, Mamas

    2016-06-20

    Although the importance of patient participation in the design and evaluation of health programs and services is well-documented, there is scarcity of research with regard to patient association (PA) participation in health policy decision-making processes. To this end, the present study aimed to validate further a previously developed instrument as well as to investigate the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making in Cyprus. A convenient sample of 114 patients-members of patients associations took part in the study. Participants were recruited from an umbrella organization, the Pancyprian Federation of Patient Associations and Friends (PFPA). PA participation in health policy decision-making was assessed with the Health Democracy Index (HDI), an original 8-item tool. To explore its psychometric properties, Cronbach α was computed as regards to its internal consistency, while its convergent validity was tested against a self-rated question enquiring about the degree of PA participation in health policy decision-making. The findings revealed that the HDI has good internal consistency and convergent validity. Furthermore, PAs were found to participate more in consultations in health-related organizations and the Ministry of Health (MoH) as well as in reforms or crucial decisions in health policy. Lower levels were documented with regard to participation in hospital boards, ethics committees in clinical trials and health technology assessment (HTA) procedures. Overall, PA participation levels were found to be lower than the mid-point of the scale. Targeted interventions aiming to facilitate patients' involvement in health policy decision-making processes and to increase its impact are greatly needed in Cyprus. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  4. Supported Decision-Making: Implications from Positive Psychology for Assessment and Intervention in Rehabilitation and Employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyanik, Hatice; Shogren, Karrie A; Blanck, Peter

    2017-12-01

    Purpose This article reviews existing literature on positive psychology, supported decision-making (SDM), employment, and disability. It examines interventions and assessments that have been empirically evaluated for the enhancement of decision-making and overall well-being of people with disabilities. Additionally, conceptual themes present in the literature were explored. Methods A systematic review was conducted across two databases (ERIC and PsychINFO) using various combination of keywords of 'disabilit*', work rehabilitation and employment terms, positive psychology terms, and SDM components. Seven database searches were conducted with diverse combinations of keywords, which identified 1425 results in total to be screened for relevance using their titles and abstracts. Database search was supplemented with hand searches of oft-cited journals, ancestral search, and supplemental search from grey literature. Results Only four studies were identified in the literature targeting SDM and positive psychology related constructs in the employment and job development context. Results across the studies indicated small to moderate impacts of the assessment and interventions on decision-making and engagement outcomes. Conceptually there are thematic areas of potential overlap, although they are limited in the explicit integration of theory in supported decision-making, positive psychology, disability, and employment. Conclusion Results suggest a need for additional scholarship in this area that focuses on theory development and integration as well as empirical work. Such work should examine the potential utility of considering positive psychological interventions when planning for SDM in the context of career development activities to enhance positive outcomes related to decision-making, self-determination, and other positive psychological constructs.

  5. Decision-making in multiple sclerosis consultations in Italy: third observer and patient assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrolongo, Erika; Giordano, Andrea; Kleinefeld, Monica; Confalonieri, Paolo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Tortorella, Carla; Pugliatti, Maura; Radice, Davide; Goss, Claudia; Heesen, Christoph; Solari, Alessandra

    2013-01-01

    To assess decision-making in multiple sclerosis (MS) from third observer and patient perspectives. Audio recordings of first-ever consultations with a participating physician (88 outpatients, 10 physicians) at four tertiary MS care clinics in Italy, were rated by a third observer using the Observing Patient Involvement in Shared Decision Making (OPTION) and by patients using the Perceived Involvement in Care Scale (PICS). Mean patient age was 37.5, 66% were women, 72% had MS, and 28% had possible MS or other disease. Mean PICS subscale scores (range 0 poor, 100 best possible) were 71.9 (SD 24.3) for "physician facilitation" (PICS-F); 74.6 (SD 22.9) for "patient information exchange" (PICS-I); and only 22.5 (SD 16.2) for "patient decision making" (PICS-DM). Mean OPTION total score (0 poor, 100 best possible) was 29.6 (SD 10.3). Poorest OPTION scores were found for items assessing "preferred patient approach to receiving information" and "preferred patient level of involvement." Highest scores were for "clinician drawing attention to identified problem", "indicating need for decision making," and "need to review the decision." Consultation time, woman physician, patient-physician gender concordance and PICS-F were associated with higher OPTION total score; older physician and second opinion consultation were associated with lower OPTION score. In line with findings in other settings, our third observer findings indicated limited patient involvement abilities of MS physicians during first consultations. Patient perceptions of physician skills were better than third observers', although they correlated. Consultations with women physicians, and younger physicians, were associated with higher third observer and patient-based scores. Our findings reveal a need to empower Italian MS physicians with better communication and shared decision-making skills, and show in particular that attention to MS patient preferences for reception of information and involvement in health

  6. The application of the assessment of nuclear accident status in emergency decision-making during nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling

    2011-01-01

    Nuclear accident assessment is one of the bases for emergency decision-making in the situation of nuclear accident in NPP. Usually, the assessment includes accident status and consequence assessment. It is accident status assessment, and its application in emergency decision-making is introduced here. (author)

  7. Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

  8. Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

  9. Relationship Power, Sexual Decision Making, and HIV Risk Among Midlife and Older Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altschuler, Joanne; Rhee, Siyon

    2015-01-01

    The number of midlife and older women with HIV/AIDS is high and increasing, especially among women of color. This article addresses these demographic realities by reporting on findings about self-esteem, relationship power, and HIV risk from a pilot study of midlife and older women. A purposive sample (N = 110) of ethnically, economically, and educationally diverse women 40 years and older from the Greater Los Angeles Area was surveyed to determine their levels of self-esteem, general relationship power, sexual decision-making power, safer sex behaviors, and HIV knowledge. Women with higher levels of self-esteem exercised greater power in their relationships with their partner. Women with higher levels of general relationship power and self-esteem tend to exercise greater power in sexual decision making, such as having sex and choosing sexual acts. Income and sexual decision-making power were statistically significant in predicting the use of condoms. Implications and recommendations for future HIV/AIDS research and intervention targeting midlife and older women are presented.

  10. The relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetmore, Michael J.

    The purpose of this applied dissertation was to investigate the relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment using a quantitative, non-experimental, ex post facto research design. All 75 of the flight training accidents that involved a fatality from the years 2001-2003 were selected for study from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database. Objective evidence from the Factual Reports was used to construct accident chains and to code and quantify total risk factors and total poor aeronautical decisions. The data were processed using correlational statistical tests at the 1% significance level. There was a statistically significant relationship between total risk factors per flight and poor decisions per flight. Liveware risks were the most prevalent risk factor category. More poor decisions were made during preflight than any other phase of flight. Pilots who made multiple poor decisions per flight had significantly higher risk factors per flight. A risk factor threat to decision making chart is presented for use by flight instructors and/or flight training organizations. The main threat to validity of this study was the NTSB accident investigation team investigative equality assumption.

  11. Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

    2016-04-01

    This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

  12. Impaired decision making under ambiguity but not under risk in individuals with pathological buying-behavioral and psychophysiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotzke, Patrick; Starcke, Katrin; Pedersen, Anya; Müller, Astrid; Brand, Matthias

    2015-09-30

    Pathological buying (PB) is described as dysfunctional buying behavior, associated with harmful consequences. It is discussed whether decision-making deficits are related to PB, because affected individuals often choose the short-term rewarding option of buying despite persistent negative long-term consequences. We investigated 30 patients suffering from PB and 30 matched control participants with two different decision-making tasks: the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures decisions under ambiguity and involves emotional feedback processing, whereas the Game of Dice Task (GDT) measures decisions under risk and can be solved strategically. Potential emotional and cognitive correlates of decision making were investigated by assessing skin conductance response (SCR) and executive functioning. In comparison to the control participants, the patients showed more disadvantageous decisions under ambiguity in the IGT. These data were supported by the SCR results: patients failed to generate SCRs that usually occur before disadvantageous decisions. The physiological and behavioral performance on decisions under risk and executive functioning did not differ between groups. Thus, deficits in emotional feedback processing might be one potential factor in etiology and pathogenesis of PB and should be considered in theory and treatment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  13. Durable decision-making is central to the control of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebroski, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    In several capacities the author has promoted the importance of risk analysis techniques as a rational path to the improved assurance of safety. The interest in decisions arose from the persistent observation of only moderate or minor impacts or benefits to practical operations from the availability of wall documented risk analysis studies for many nuclear units. The complexity and number of variables in decisions on matters of safety of large scale operations defies ordinary intuitive decision making. The structured decision process is not a panacea, but is often the practical tool of choise for managing complexity in an orderly way. Typical basic sources for decision techniques are listed in references. (orig.)

  14. The hole picture: risks, decision making, purpose, regulations, and the future of body piercing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Myrna L; Koch, Jerome R; Saunders, Jana C; Roberts, Alden E; Owen, Donna C

    2007-01-01

    Can it be said that body piercing is ubiquitous, found across all socioeconomic groups? The major concentration is among adolescents and young adults 15 to 30 years old, in some studies, 50% of the population. Commonly identified physical risks are bleeding, tissue trauma, and bacterial infections; psychosocial risks are unhappiness, low self-esteem, and disappointment. The Health Belief Model is used to explain decision making; purposes for body piercing consistently center on personal expression (self-identity) and uniqueness. The international and US body piercing regulations are discussed, leading to the need for tracking complications globally and standardization of regulations. Proactive health education for clients and health providers remains a priority.

  15. Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

    2011-06-01

    Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

  16. The impact of health technology assessment reports on decision making in Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zechmeister, Ingrid; Schumacher, Ines

    2012-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) was established in Austria in the 1990s and, since then, it has gained considerable importance. In this study, we aim to analyze whether the HTA reports that have been produced at the Institute for Technology Assessment (ITA) and at the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for HTA (LBI-HTA) have had an impact on decision making within the Austrian health care system. We selected all reports that were intended for supporting (i) reimbursement/investment or (ii) disinvestment decisions. Eleven full HTA reports and fifty-eight rapid assessments fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We used interview data and administrative data on volumes, tariffs and expenditure of products/services to analyze whether and how reports were in reality used in decision making and what the consequences for health care expenditure and resource distribution have been. Five full HTA reports and fifty-six rapid technology assessments were used for reimbursement decisions. Four full HTA reports and two rapid assessments were used for disinvestment decisions and resulted in reduced volumes and expenditure. Two full HTA reports showed no impact on decision making. Impact was most evident for hospital technologies. HTA has played some role in reducing volumes of over-supplied hospital technologies, resulting in reduced expenditure for several hospital providers. Additionally, it has been increasingly included in prospective planning and reimbursement decisions of late, indicating re-distribution of resources toward evidence-based technologies. However, further factors may have influenced the decisions, and the impact could be considerably increased by systematically incorporating HTA into the decision-making process in Austria.

  17. Frailty assessment in vascular surgery and its utility in preoperative decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraiss, Larry W; Beckstrom, Julie L; Brooke, Benjamin S

    2015-06-01

    The average patient requiring vascular surgery has become older, as life expectancy within the US population has increased. Many older patients have some degree of frailty and reside near the limit of their physiological reserve with restricted ability to respond to stressors such as surgery. Frailty assessment is an important part of the preoperative decision-making process, in order to determine whether patients are fit enough to survive the vascular surgery procedure and live long enough to benefit from the intervention. In this review, we will discuss different measures of frailty assessment and how they can be used by vascular surgery providers to improve preoperative decision making and the quality of patient care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project-1 Results: Decision Making in Breast Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Bandos, Hanna; Fagerlin, Angela; Bevers, Therese B; Battaglia, Tracy A; Wickerham, D Lawrence; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta J

    2017-11-01

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce breast cancer risk. Adoption of SERMs as prevention medication remains low. This is the first study to quantify social, cultural, and psychologic factors driving decision making regarding SERM use in women counseled on breast cancer prevention options. A survey study was conducted with women counseled by a health care provider (HCP) about SERMs. A statistical comparison of responses was performed between those who decided to use and those who decided not to use SERMs. Independent factors associated with the decision were determined using logistic regression. Of 1,023 participants, 726 made a decision: 324 (44.6%) decided to take a SERM and 402 (55.4%) decided not to. The most important factor for deciding on SERM use was the HCP recommendation. Other characteristics associated with the decision included attitudes and perceptions regarding medication intake, breast cancer worry, trust in HCP, family members with blood clots, and others' experiences with SERMs. The odds of SERM intake when HCP recommended were higher for participants with a positive attitude toward taking medications than for those with a negative attitude ( P interaction = 0.01). This study highlights the importance of social and cultural aspects for SERM decision making, most importantly personal beliefs and experiences. HCPs' recommendations play a statistically significant role in decision making and are more likely to be followed if in line with patients' attitudes. Results indicate the need for developing interventions for HCPs that not only focus on the presentation of medical information but, equally as important, on addressing patients' beliefs and experiences. Cancer Prev Res; 10(11); 625-34. ©2017 AACR See related editorial by Crew, p. 609 . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  19. A multi-criteria decision making system for damage assessment of critical components in power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, A.; Auerkari, P.; Brear, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    A multi-criteria decision making tool for engineering applications has been developed in the European project BE5935. The tool has been developed and applied in the area of power plants, primarily for the decisions regarding the inspection and maintenance planning in the area of power plants. Practical application of the methodology and of the software is shown here for the damage assessment of critical components. (authors)

  20. The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2017-01-01

    One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

  1. Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Peter H

    2009-01-01

    With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

  2. Mock Pages Are a Valid Construct for Assessment of Clinical Decision Making and Interprofessional Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehler, Margaret L; Schwind, Cathy J; Markwell, Stephen J; Minter, Rebecca M

    2017-01-01

    Answering pages from nurses about patients in need of immediate attention is one of the most difficult challenges a resident faces during their first days as a physician. A Mock Page program has been developed and adopted into a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum to prepare senior medical students for this important skill. The purpose of this study is to assess standardized mock page cases as a valid construct to assess clinical decision making and interprofessional communication skills. Mock page cases (n = 16) were administered to 213 senior medical students from 12 medical schools participating in a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum in 2013 and 2014. Clinical decision making and interprofessional communication were measured by case-specific assessments evaluating these skills which have undergone rigorous standard-setting to determine pass/fail cut points. Students' performance improved in general for both communication and clinical decision making over the 4-week course. Cases have been identified that seem to be best suited for differentiating high- from low-performing students. Chest pain, pulmonary embolus, and mental status change cases posed the greatest difficulty for student learners. Simulated mock pages demonstrate an innovative technique for training students in both effective interprofessional communication and management of common postoperative conditions they will encounter as new surgical interns.

  3. Combining ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to support ecological restoration planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, David M; Mazzotta, Marisa; Bousquin, Justin

    2018-04-10

    Accounting for ecosystem services in environmental decision making is an emerging research topic. Modern frameworks for ecosystem services assessment emphasize evaluating the social benefits of ecosystems, in terms of who benefits and by how much, to aid in comparing multiple courses of action. Structured methods that use decision analytic-approaches are emerging for the practice of ecological restoration. In this article, we combine ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to estimate and evaluate measures of the potential benefits of ecological restoration with a case study in the Woonasquatucket River watershed, Rhode Island, USA. We partnered with a local watershed management organization to analyze dozens of candidate wetland restoration sites for their abilities to supply five ecosystem services-flood water retention, scenic landscapes, learning opportunities, recreational opportunities, and birds. We developed 22 benefit indicators related to the ecosystem services as well as indicators for social equity and reliability that benefits will sustain in the future. We applied conceptual modeling and spatial analysis to estimate indicator values for each candidate restoration site. Lastly, we developed a decision support tool to score and aggregate the values for the organization to screen the restoration sites. Results show that restoration sites in urban areas can provide greater social benefits than sites in less urban areas. Our research approach is general and can be used to investigate other restoration planning studies that perform ecosystem services assessment and fit into a decision-making process.

  4. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  5. Assessing the Decision-Making Capacity of Terminally Ill Patients with Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolva, Elissa; Rosenfeld, Barry; Saracino, Rebecca

    2018-05-01

    Despite the clinical, ethical, and legal magnitude of end-of-life decision-making, the capacity of terminally ill patients to make the medical decisions they often face is largely unknown. In practice, clinicians are responsible for determining when their patients are no longer competent to make treatment decisions, yet the accuracy of these assessments is unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore decision-making capacity and its assessment in terminally ill cancer patients. Fifty-five patients with advanced cancer receiving inpatient palliative care and 50 healthy adults were administered the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) to evaluate decision-making capacity with regard to the four most commonly used legal standards: Choice, Understanding, Appreciation, and Reasoning. Participants made a hypothetical treatment decision about whether to accept artificial nutrition and hydration for treatment of cachexia. Participants' physicians independently rated their decision-making capacity. Terminally ill participants were significantly more impaired than healthy adults on all MacCAT-T subscales. Most terminally ill participants were able to express a treatment choice (85.7%), but impairment was common on the Understanding (44.2%), Appreciation (49.0%), and Reasoning (85.4%) subscales. Agreement between physician-rated capacity and performance on the MacCAT-T subscales was poor. The use of the MacCAT-T revealed high rates of decisional impairment in terminally ill participants. Participants' physicians infrequently detected impairment identified by the MacCAT-T. The findings from the present study reinforce the need for engagement in advance care planning for patients with advanced cancer. Copyright © 2018 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  7. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  8. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  9. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT......-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. Results: As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being...... correlated. Conclusions: Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively....

  10. Decision-making deficits in pathological gambling: the role of executive functions, explicit knowledge and impulsivity in relation to decisions made under ambiguity and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Cristian; Alvarez-Moya, Eva M; Penelo, Eva; Aymami, M Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Granero, Roser; Vallejo-Ruiloba, Julio; Menchón, José Manuel; Lawrence, Natalia S; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

    2013-01-01

    A variety of cognitive and emotional processes influence the decision-making deficits observed in pathological gambling (PG). This study investigated the role of immediate/delayed sensitivity to reward and punishment, executive functions, impulsivity and explicit knowledge in relation to decision-making performance on the original Iowa Gambling Task (IGT-ABCD) and a variant (IGT-EFGH). We assessed 131 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of PG by using executive functioning and decision-making tasks, self-report measures of impulsivity and explicit knowledge. The majority of pathological gamblers (PGs) showed deficits in decision-making, characterized mainly by myopia for the future. Decisions made under risk showed different predictors. Performance on the IGT-ABCD for decisions made under risk was predicted by medium and high levels of explicit knowledge of the task, as well as by scores on the Disorderliness subscale and the degree of Stroop interference. By contrast, IGT-EFGH results were only associated with self-report impulsivity measures. Decision making in PG involves distinct patterns of deficits, and the predictors differ depending on the reinforcement schedule. Decisions made under risk on the IGT-ABCD are associated with explicit knowledge, executive functions and impulsivity traits related to conscious awareness and control processes. On the IGT-EFGH, however, only impulsivity traits predict decision making. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  11. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age - A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors - responsible for age-related differences in decision making - are additionally pointed out.

  12. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Liebherr

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out.

  13. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out. PMID:29270145

  14. Resource effects of training general practitioners in risk communication skills and shared decision making competences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, David; Longo, M F; Hood, Kerenza; Edwards, Adrian; Elwyn, Glyn

    2004-08-01

    Involving patients more in decisions about their own care requires doctors to be trained in effective ways of communicating information and in developing competences to negotiate levels of patient involvement which are most appropriate for each case. The aim of this study was to determine the cost of such training and identify which service resource variables are subsequently affected. An explanatory cluster randomized crossover trial was carried out which involved training general practitioners (GPs) in the use of risk communication (RC) tools, shared decision making (SDM) competences or both. Continuing care by GPs of patients with one of four chronic conditions (menopausal symptoms, menorrhagia, atrial fibrillation, prostatism) was reviewed before and after training. Cost of training was assessed by prospective monitoring of resources used. Data on prescribing, referrals and investigations were collected via questionnaires to participating practitioners. Data on follow-up GP consultations were extracted from medical records. Three two-level logistic models were performed to investigate the probability of training having an effect on prescribing, referrals and investigations ordered at the review consultation. Training cost pound 1218 per practitioner which increased the cost of a consultation by pound 2.89. Training in SDM or combined with RC significantly affected the probability of a prescription being issued to women with menopausal symptoms and menorrhagia (although RC on its own had no effect) but did not significantly affect prescribing for patients with prostatism or atrial fibrillation. It did not significantly affect the probability of investigations, referrals or follow-up GP visits for any of the conditions. Unless training has a major influence on consultation length, it is unlikely to have any major impacts on cost.

  15. Rational Risk-Benefit Decision-Making in the Setting of Military Mefloquine Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, Remington L

    2015-01-01

    Mefloquine is an antimalarial drug that has been commonly used in military settings since its development by the US military in the late 1980s. Owing to the drug's neuropsychiatric contraindications and its high rate of inducing neuropsychiatric symptoms, which are contraindications to the drug's continued use, the routine prescribing of mefloquine in military settings may be problematic. Due to these considerations and to recent concerns of chronic and potentially permanent psychiatric and neurological sequelae arising from drug toxicity, military prescribing of mefloquine has recently decreased. In settings where mefloquine remains available, policies governing prescribing should reflect risk-benefit decision-making informed by the drug's perceived benefits and by consideration both of the risks identified in the drug's labeling and of specific military risks associated with its use. In this review, these risks are identified and recommendations are made for the rational prescribing of the drug in light of current evidence.

  16. Effort-Based Decision Making: A Novel Approach for Assessing Motivation in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael F; Horan, William P; Barch, Deanna M; Gold, James M

    2015-09-01

    Because negative symptoms, including motivational deficits, are a critical unmet need in schizophrenia, there are many ongoing efforts to develop new pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for these impairments. A common challenge of these studies involves how to evaluate and select optimal endpoints. Currently, all studies of negative symptoms in schizophrenia depend on ratings from clinician-conducted interviews. Effort-based decision-making tasks may provide a more objective, and perhaps more sensitive, endpoint for trials of motivational negative symptoms. These tasks assess how much effort a person is willing to exert for a given level of reward. This area has been well-studied with animal models of effort and motivation, and effort-based decision-making tasks have been adapted for use in humans. Very recently, several studies have examined physical and cognitive types of effort-based decision-making tasks in cross-sectional studies of schizophrenia, providing evidence for effort-related impairment in this illness. This article covers the theoretical background on effort-based decision-making tasks to provide a context for the subsequent articles in this theme section. In addition, we review the existing literature of studies using these tasks in schizophrenia, consider some practical challenges in adapting them for use in clinical trials in schizophrenia, and discuss interpretive challenges that are central to these types of tasks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Preference Reversals in Decision Making Under Risk are Accompanied by Changes in Attention to Different Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Betty E; Seligman, Darryl; Kable, Joseph W

    2012-01-01

    Recent work has shown that visual fixations reflect and influence trial-to-trial variability in people's preferences between goods. Here we extend this principle to attribute weights during decision making under risk. We measured eye movements while people chose between two risky gambles or bid on a single gamble. Consistent with previous work, we found that people exhibited systematic preference reversals between choices and bids. For two gambles matched in expected value, people systematically chose the higher probability option but provided a higher bid for the option that offered the greater amount to win. This effect was accompanied by a shift in fixations of the two attributes, with people fixating on probabilities more during choices and on amounts more during bids. Our results suggest that the construction of value during decision making under risk depends on task context partly because the task differentially directs attention at probabilities vs. amounts. Since recent work demonstrates that neural correlates of value vary with visual fixations, our results also suggest testable hypotheses regarding how task context modulates the neural computation of value to generate preference reversals.

  18. Trait mindfulness helps shield decision-making from translating into health-risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, David S; Sussman, Steve; Johnson, C Anderson; Milam, Joel

    2012-12-01

    The cognitive tendency toward mindfulness may influence the enactment of health and risk behaviors by its bringing increased attention to and awareness of decision-making processes underlying behavior. The present study examined the moderating effect of trait mindfulness on associations between intentions to smoke (ITS)/smoking refusal self-efficacy (SRSE) and smoking frequency. Self-reports from Chinese adolescents (N = 5,287; mean age = 16.2 years, standard deviation = .7; 48.8% female) were collected in 24 schools. Smoking frequency was regressed on latent factor interactions Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*ITS and Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*SRSE, adjusting for school clustering effects and covariates. Both interaction terms were significant in cross-sectional analyses and showed that high ITS predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness, whereas low SRSE predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness. Findings suggest trait mindfulness possibly shields against decision-making processes that place adolescents at risk for smoking. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Decision making for breast cancer prevention among women at elevated risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padamsee, Tasleem J; Wills, Celia E; Yee, Lisa D; Paskett, Electra D

    2017-03-24

    Several medical management approaches have been shown to be effective in preventing breast cancer and detecting it early among women at elevated risk: 1) prophylactic mastectomy; 2) prophylactic oophorectomy; 3) chemoprevention; and 4) enhanced screening routines. To varying extents, however, these approaches are substantially underused relative to clinical practice recommendations. This article reviews the existing research on the uptake of these prevention approaches, the characteristics of women who are likely to use various methods, and the decision-making processes that underlie the differing choices of women. It also highlights important areas for future research, detailing the types of studies that are particularly needed in four key areas: documenting women's perspectives on their own perceptions of risk and prevention decisions; explicit comparisons of available prevention pathways and their likely health effects; the psychological, interpersonal, and social processes of prevention decision making; and the dynamics of subgroup variation. Ultimately, this research could support the development of interventions that more fully empower women to make informed and values-consistent decisions, and to move towards favorable health outcomes.

  20. Risking your life without a second thought: intuitive decision-making and extreme altruism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Rand

    Full Text Available When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs, extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes.

  1. Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan eZhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

  2. Dopaminergic circuitry and risk/reward decision making: implications for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopper, Colin M; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-01-01

    Abnormal reinforcement learning and representations of reward value are present in schizophrenia, and these impairments can manifest as deficits in risk/reward decision making. These abnormalities may be due in part to dopaminergic dysfunction within cortico-limbic-striatal circuitry. Evidence from studies with laboratory animal have revealed that normal DA activity within different nodes of these circuits is critical for mediating dissociable processes that can refine decision biases. Moreover, both phasic and tonic dopamine transmission appear to play separate yet complementary roles in these processes. Tonic dopamine release within the prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, serves as a "running rate-meter" of reward and reflects contextual information such as reward uncertainty and overt choice behavior. On the other hand, manipulations of outcome-related phasic dopamine bursts and dips suggest these signals provide rapid feedback to allow for quick adjustments in choice as reward contingencies change. The lateral habenula is a key input to the DA system that phasic signals is necessary for expressing subjective decision biases; as suppression of activity within this nucleus leads to catastrophic impairments in decision making and random patterns of choice behavior. As schizophrenia is characterized by impairments in using positive and negative feedback to appropriately guide decision making, these findings suggest that these deficits in these processes may be mediated, at least in part, by abnormalities in both tonic and phasic dopamine transmission. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Developing and Validating a Tool to Assess Ethical Decision-Making Ability of Nursing Students, Using Rubrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indhraratana, Apinya; Kaemkate, Wannee

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a reliable and valid tool to assess ethical decision-making ability of nursing students using rubrics. A proposed ethical decision making process, from reviewing related literature was used as a framework for developing the rubrics. Participants included purposive sample of 86 nursing students from the Royal…

  4. Emotion regulation and risk taking: predicting risky choice in deliberative decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panno, Angelo; Lauriola, Marco; Figner, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    Only very recently has research demonstrated that experimentally induced emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression) affect risky choice (e.g., Heilman et al., 2010). However, it is unknown whether this effect also operates via habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice involving deliberative decision making. We investigated the role of habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice using the "cold" deliberative version of the Columbia Card Task (CCT; Figner et al., 2009). Fifty-three participants completed the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ; Gross & John, 2003) and--one month later--the CCT and the PANAS. Greater habitual cognitive reappraisal use was related to increased risk taking, accompanied by decreased sensitivity to changes in probability and loss amount. Greater habitual expressive suppression use was related to decreased risk taking. The results show that habitual use of reappraisal and suppression strategies predict risk taking when decisions involve predominantly cognitive-deliberative processes.

  5. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-06-01

    Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Ethanol (EtOH) was presented to adolescent (postnatal day [PND] 30 to 49) and adult rats (PND 80 to 99) for 20 days, either 24 hours or 1 h/d, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, polycose (10%), and EtOH (10%). The 24-hour time course of EtOH intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from EtOH, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood EtOH concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Unlike animals exposed to EtOH during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar EtOH intake levels and patterns when given either 24- or 1-hour access per day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels, we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Here, we show that adolescent, but not adult, EtOH intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating adolescence as a time

  6. Risk perception & strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-11-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system.

  7. Evaluating the impact of HIA on urban reconstruction decision-making. Who manages whose risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekker, Marleen P.M.; Putters, Kim; Grinten, Tom E.D. van der

    2005-01-01

    Practitioners and academic researchers increasingly look to evaluation of health impact assessment (HIA) to improve its practice, its efficiency and its legitimacy. Evaluation is also used to account to policy-makers, who express doubts that the benefits of HIA justify its costs. Until recently evaluation of HIA focused on instrument design and procedures but now the focus needs to shift to analysis of the interaction of HIA and decision-making. Multiple case studies have been applied to identify the conditions in which HIA produces the desired benefits. These studies used analytical concepts derived from the literature on evaluation, knowledge utilization, science of sociology and knowledge management. This paper describes a case study in which the strategic motives of the decision-makers affected the impact of an HIA. This HIA comprised of a quantitative environmental model 'City and Environment' that was used to assess environmental health impacts of an urban reconstruction plan in a Dutch city. The evaluation of the HIA shows that the decision to follow the recommendations of the HIA was part of a damage control strategy. The more HIA goals deviate from the policy problem and the less HIA is embedded in institutional procedures, then the more HIA impact will be subject to strategic decision-making behaviour. Appropriate cognitive and social strategies are needed to avoid 'negative learning' in those the HIA seeks to influence

  8. Abnormal decision-making in generalized anxiety disorder: Aversion of risk or stimulus-reinforcement impairment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Cindy; Otero, Marcela; Geraci, Marilla; Blair, R J R; Pine, Daniel S; Grillon, Christian; Blair, Karina S

    2016-03-30

    There is preliminary data indicating that patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) show impairment on decision-making tasks requiring the appropriate representation of reinforcement value. The current study aimed to extend this literature using the passive avoidance (PA) learning task, where the participant has to learn to respond to stimuli that engender reward and avoid responding to stimuli that engender punishment. Six stimuli engendering reward and six engendering punishment are presented once per block for 10 blocks of trials. Thirty-nine medication-free patients with GAD and 29 age-, IQ and gender matched healthy comparison individuals performed the task. In addition, indexes of social functioning as assessed by the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale were obtained to allow for correlational analyzes of potential relations between cognitive and social impairments. The results revealed a Group-by-Error Type-by-Block interaction; patients with GAD committed significantly more commission (passive avoidance) errors than comparison individuals in the later blocks (blocks 7,8, and 9). In addition, the extent of impairment on these blocks was associated with their functional impairment as measured by the GAF scale. These results link GAD with anomalous decision-making and indicate that a potential problem in reinforcement representation may contribute to the severity of expression of their disorder. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  9. From science to decision-making: taking the risk to communicate on risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroi, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Geoscientists and decision-makers have the same responsibility toward the society: reducing the damaging consequences induced by natural phenomena. They have to work together, geoscientists to improve the knowledge and decision-makers to take the "best" decision, both to design and implement balanced solutions, both to communicate. Feedback shows that if the collaboration between them has already improved, a lot has still to be done, especially in terms of communication; endless litany, geoscientists don't communicate in the right way! In a hyperspecialized technological and segmented society with sophisticated methods of communication, geoscientists don't use appropriate tools and terminology. It's true, and a lot of examples can be shown that highlight this! Risks is based on complex concepts, on notions that are poorly understood, even by scientists themselves, especially the concepts of probability and occurrence of phenomena. But the problem rest as well on the role and on the responsibility of the geoscientists. Risk management experts address geosciences and technology to identify problems and define protection, including prohibitive measures (such as not allowing building in hazardous areas). Policy makers and local planners want to know where to develop territories. On one hand the identification of problems, on the other hand the needs of solutions. Dialectic is not the same. When responsibility, money and image are the three main pillars of decision-making, long-term modeling and uncertainty, are the basic ones for geosciences. In our participative democracies people want to be actor of the development of their own territories; they want more freedom, more protection and less tax. Face to unrealistic political answers geoscientists have to explain and convince. It's not possible to gain on everything and some are going to loose. Shall geoscientists let decision-makers communicate on topics they hardly understand? No. Shall geoscientists communicate on

  10. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

    2007-01-01

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  11. Decision making and risk analysis during the development of wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanhaesebroeck, M.

    2004-11-01

    This study aims at determining a methodology or criteria which can be used as decision making tools for the development of wind power projects and for the objective profitability comparison between several projects. In the first part, the different steps of the development of a wind power project in France are described. For each step, the cost of the studies, the related approaches and the main risks of abandonment are precised. The potential time drifts in the planning of the project are identified on the basis of the experience feedback of the first years of wind power development in France. In the second part, the possibilities of using classical investment choice techniques are analyzed. The characteristics having more impact on the project profitability are identified. In the third part, the sequential models with increasing information are used to evaluate a project, whatever its level of development. Finally, a concrete case is considered to see how these models can be used as decision making tools during key steps of wind farms development. (J.S.)

  12. The quality of instruments to assess the process of shared decision making: A systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bomhof-Roordink, Hanna; Smith, Ian P.; Scholl, Isabelle; Stiggelbout, Anne M.; Pieterse, Arwen H.

    2018-01-01

    Objective To inventory instruments assessing the process of shared decision making and appraise their measurement quality, taking into account the methodological quality of their validation studies. Methods In a systematic review we searched seven databases (PubMed, Embase, Emcare, Cochrane, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Academic Search Premier) for studies investigating instruments measuring the process of shared decision making. Per identified instrument, we assessed the level of evidence separately for 10 measurement properties following a three-step procedure: 1) appraisal of the methodological quality using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist, 2) appraisal of the psychometric quality of the measurement property using three possible quality scores, 3) best-evidence synthesis based on the number of studies, their methodological and psychometrical quality, and the direction and consistency of the results. The study protocol was registered at PROSPERO: CRD42015023397. Results We included 51 articles describing the development and/or evaluation of 40 shared decision-making process instruments: 16 patient questionnaires, 4 provider questionnaires, 18 coding schemes and 2 instruments measuring multiple perspectives. There is an overall lack of evidence for their measurement quality, either because validation is missing or methods are poor. The best-evidence synthesis indicated positive results for a major part of instruments for content validity (50%) and structural validity (53%) if these were evaluated, but negative results for a major part of instruments when inter-rater reliability (47%) and hypotheses testing (59%) were evaluated. Conclusions Due to the lack of evidence on measurement quality, the choice for the most appropriate instrument can best be based on the instrument’s content and characteristics such as the perspective that they assess. We recommend refinement and validation of

  13. An intelligent system for helping petroleum industry risk management decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, Mara M.G.; Ebecken, Nelson F.F. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    1998-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an intelligent system for helping in decision making about risk analysis in petroleum industry management. Such a system supports explicit inconsistencies in its knowledge bases, and is able to solve it by means of a decision's procedure, in which Fuzzy Logic is used. Expert Systems which knowledge bases carry out explicitly inconsistencies are called paraconsistent systems and were initially proposed by Da Costa and Subrahmanian. The defuzzyfication process of a paraconsistent model was already suggested by Barreto, Ebecken and Clement, and established by Barreto and Ebecken. In Barreto, Ebecken and Clemente show an application of this model for helping in decision making in a business situation. The system that will be presented here is a simulation of many possible applications of this model, and helps the analyses of risk business petroleum project's investment, and, it is desirable, can point out some possibilities of getting out difficulties when the risk is increased. In the introduction, we define some risk result's indicators to be considered, such as, petroleum business project duration, staffing, priority; and we define the system's logical structure. In the Overriding Part, firstly, we show the implemented system's , simulation, how it works, how to get outputs from the given and how to analyze the final results, and explicit the methods used in situations where the inconsistencies appear giving comments about the critical situations. Finally, in the conclusion, we comment the coherence of results, and give comments about some others applications of this kind of systems. (author)

  14. The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas eFooken

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Different methods to elicit risk attitudes of individuals often provide differing results despite a common theory. Reasons for such inconsistencies may be the different influence of underlying factors in risk-taking decisions. In order to evaluate this conjecture, a better understanding of underlying factors across methods and decision contexts is desirable. In this paper we study the difference in result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age and personality traits, which have been shown to be related. We also investigate the role of these factors during decision-making in a dilemma situation. For these two decision contexts we also investigate the decision-maker's physiological state during the decision, measured by heart rate variability (HRV, which we use as an indicator of emotional involvement. We found that the two elicitation methods provide different individual risk attitude measures which is partly reflected in a different gender effect between the methods. Personality traits explain only relatively little in terms of driving risk attitudes and the difference between methods. We also found that risk taking and the physiological state are related for one of the methods, suggesting that more emotionally involved individuals are more risk averse in the experiment. Finally, we found evidence that personality traits are connected to whether individuals made a decision in the dilemma situation, but risk attitudes and the physiological state were not indicative for the ability to decide in this decision context.

  15. Analysis of Availability of Data Sets Necessary for Decision Making in Air Quality Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzhapov, B. Kh; Rashevskiy, N. M.; Sinitsyn, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    The article analyzes the problems in obtaining the environmental information data sets necessary for decision making in the field of air quality assessment. The authors of this article describe their experience in search for data required to run the WRF and Calpuff systems to estimate the air quality in the city of Volgograd, the Russian Federation. The problems the authors encountered and other researchers may encounter are indicated. A conceptual scheme of the resource that will help to increase the speed of searching for necessary information and also inform users about the rules for use of a particular resource is suggested.

  16. Differentiating the influence of incidental anger and fear on risk decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiwei; Zhao, Ding; Wu, Yan; Tang, Ping; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has revealed that incidental emotions of different valence (positive/negative/neutral) produce distinct impacts on risk decision-making. This study went on to compare the effects of different emotions of which the valence are identical. We focused on anger and fear, both of which are negative emotions but differ in motivational and appraisal dimensions. Participants finished a forced-choice gambling task, during which incidental emotions (anger/fear/happy) were elicited by facial stimuli selected from the Chinese Facial Affective Picture System. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were recorded in the experiment, which showed that anger and fear were different in their influence on behavioral risk preference and the relationship between outcome processing and subsequent risk decisions. Regarding the behavioral results, risk preference in the anger condition was higher than the fear condition, but lower than the happy condition. Regarding the ERP results elicited by outcome feedback (gain/loss), in the fear condition, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) was positively correlated with risk preference; in the anger condition, the gain-related P3 component was positively correlated with risk preference; in the happy condition, both the FRN and the loss-related P3 was negatively correlated with risk preference. The current findings provide novel insight into distinguishing the effect of different incidental emotions on risk preference. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  18. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  19. Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Arne J; Braun, Daniel A; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2011-08-07

    Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

  20. Under pressure: response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Catherine L; Minati, Ludovico; Harrison, Neil A; Ward, Jamie; Critchley, Hugo D

    2011-01-01

    When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency.

  1. Under pressure: response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine L Jones

    Full Text Available When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles, a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency.

  2. Ergonomics and risk management in high risk organizations: nuclear power plant operator decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de

    2003-08-01

    Nuclear power plants are high hazard environments where emergency situations can have devastating effects. The operator crew has the ultimate responsibility to control the energy production process with safety. The outcome of a crisis is consequently dependent on the crew's judgement, decision making and situation awareness. In such way we should know how operators make their decisions in order to develop safety strategies. The aim of this thesis is to examine the cognitive processes through which operators make decisions when dealing with micro incidents during their actual work, and to determine whether they use a naturalistic or normative decision making strategy. That is, do they try to recognize the micro incident as familiar and base decisions on condition-action rules (naturalistic), or do they need to concurrently compare and contrast options before selecting the best possible (normative). The method employed for data collection was the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) and Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). The main findings of this thesis were that decision making is primarily based on naturalistic strategies, such as condition-action rules and recognition. In new situations rules are created ad hoc. These rules appear derived from experience and training rather than from Standard Operating Procedures and contrast normative competence standards used by nuclear industry. (author)

  3. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    conditions), adolescents are capable of rational decision making to achieve their goals. In practice, much depends on the particular situation in which a decision is made. In the heat of passion, in the presence of peers, on the spur of the moment, in unfamiliar situations, when trading off risks and benefits favors bad long-term outcomes, and when behavioral inhibition is required for good outcomes, adolescents are likely to reason more poorly than adults do. Brain maturation in adolescence is incomplete. Impulsivity, sensation seeking, thrill seeking, depression, and other individual differences also contribute to risk taking that resists standard risk-reduction interventions, although some conditions such as depression can be effectively treated with other approaches. Major explanatory models of risky decision making can be roughly divided into (a) those, including health-belief models and the theory of planned behavior, that adhere to a "rational" behavioral decision-making framework that stresses deliberate, quantitative trading off of risks and benefits; and (b) those that emphasize nondeliberative reaction to the perceived gists or prototypes in the immediate decision environment. (A gist is a fuzzy mental representation of the general meaning of information or experience; a prototype is a mental representation of a standard or typical example of a category.) Although perceived risks and especially benefits predict behavioral intentions and risk-taking behavior, behavioral willingness is an even better predictor of susceptibility to risk taking-and has unique explanatory power-because adolescents are willing to do riskier things than they either intend or expect to do. Dual-process models, such as the prototype/willingness model and fuzzy-trace theory, identify two divergent paths to risk taking: a reasoned and a reactive route. Such models explain apparent contradictions in the literature, including different causes of risk taking for different individuals

  4. Factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication among patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedberg, Berith; Malm, Dan; Karlsson, Jan-Erik; Årestedt, Kristofer; Broström, Anders

    2018-06-01

    Atrial fibrillation is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia. Effective communication of risks (e.g. stroke risk) and benefits of treatment (e.g. oral anticoagulants) is crucial for the process of shared decision making. The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication after a follow-up visit among patients who three months earlier had visited an emergency room for atrial fibrillation related symptoms. A cross-sectional design was used and 322 patients (34% women), mean age 66.1 years (SD 10.5 years) with atrial fibrillation were included in the south of Sweden. Clinical examinations were done post an atrial fibrillation episode. Self-rating scales for communication (Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision Making Effectiveness), uncertainty in illness (Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale-Community), mastery of daily life (Mastery Scale), depressive symptoms (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and vitality, physical health and mental health (36-item Short Form Health Survey) were used to collect data. Decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, were independently associated with lower confidence in decision making. Absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness were independently associated with lower satisfaction with risk communication. Clinical atrial fibrillation variables or depressive symptoms were not associated with satisfaction with confidence in decision making or satisfaction with risk communication. The final models explained 29.1% and 29.5% of the variance in confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication. Confidence in decision making is associated with decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, while absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness are associated with risk communication satisfaction.

  5. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  6. Decision Making about Risk of Infection by Young Adults with CF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Reynolds

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Young people with cystic fibrosis (CF are asked to avoid a number of environments associated with increased infection risk, but in practice they need to balance this with competing priorities such as building and sustaining relationships with friends and family. This study explored the process by which young people make these decisions. Mixed methods were used: a vignette study presenting choices around engaging in activities involving a degree of infection risk and a thematic analysis of participant's accounts of their decision making. The eight participants chose to engage in high risk behaviours in 59% of the choices. All participants chose to engage in at least one risky behavior, though this was less likely when the risk was significant. Thematic analysis revealed large areas of misunderstanding and lack of knowledge, leading to some potentially worrying misconceptions about the nature of infections and risk. Young people with CF are not currently making informed decisions around activities that involve increased risk of infection, and there is an urgent need for CF teams to address this in information provision.

  7. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  8. A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. [Health technology assessment for decision-making in Latin America: good practice principles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichon-Riviere, Andrés; Soto, Natalie C; Augustovski, Federico Ariel; García Martí, Sebastián; Sampietro-Colom, Laura

    2018-02-19

    Identify the most relevant, applicable, and priority good practice principles in health technology assessment (HTA) in Latin America, and potential barriers to implementing them in the region. HTA good practice principles postulated worldwide were identified and then explored through a deliberative process in a forum of evaluators, funders, and technology producers. Forty-two representatives from ten Latin American countries participated in the forum. The good practice principles postulated at the international level were considered valid and potentially applicable in Latin America. Five principles were identified as priorities and as having greater potential to be expanded at this time: transparency in carrying out HTA; involvement of stakeholders in the HTA process; existence of mechanisms to appeal decisions; existence of clear mechanisms for HTA priority-setting; and existence of a clear link between assessment and decision-making. The main challenge identified was to find a balance between application of these principles and available resources, to prevent the planned improvements from jeopardizing report production times and failing to meet decision-makers' needs. The main recommendation was to gradually advance in improving HTA and its link to decision-making by developing appropriate processes for each country, without attempting to impose, in the short term, standards taken from examples at the international level without adequate adaptation to the local context.

  10. Fuzzy multi-objective decision making on a low and intermediate level waste repository safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Deshpande, Ashok; Guimaraes, Lamartine

    2002-01-01

    Low and intermediate waste disposal facilities safety assessment is comprised of several steps from site selection , construction and operation to post-closure performance assessment. This is a multidisciplinary and complex task , and can not be analyzed by one expert only. This high complexity can lead to ambiguity and vagueness in information and consequently in the decision making process. In order to make the decision process clear and objective, there is the need to provide the decision makers with a clear and comprehensive picture of the whole process and, at the same time, simple and easily understandable by the public. This paper suggests the development of an inference system based on fuzzy decision making methodology. Fuzzy logic tools are specially suited to deal with ambiguous data by using language expressions. This process would be capable of integrating knowledge from various fields of environmental sciences. It has an advantage of keeping record of reasoning for each intermediate decision that lead to the final results which makes it more dependable and defensible as well. (author)

  11. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  12. Assessment of Two Desk-Top Computer Simulations Used to Train Tactical Decision Making (TDM) of Small Unit Infantry Leaders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Beal, Scott A

    2007-01-01

    Fifty-two leaders in the Basic Non-Commissioned Officer Course (BNCOC) at Fort Benning, Georgia, participated in an assessment of two desk-top computer simulations used to train tactical decision making...

  13. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT FOR DECISION MAKING IN LATIN AMERICA: GOOD PRACTICE PRINCIPLES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichon-Riviere, Andrés; Soto, Natalie C; Augustovski, Federico Ariel; García Martí, Sebastián; Sampietro-Colom, Laura

    2018-06-11

    The aim of this study was to identify good practice principles for health technology assessment (HTA) that are the most relevant and of highest priority for application in Latin America and to identify potential barriers to their implementation in the region. HTA good practice principles proposed at the international level were identified and then explored during a deliberative process in a forum of assessors, funders, and product manufacturers. Forty-two representatives from ten Latin American countries participated. Good practice principles proposed at the international level were considered valid and potentially relevant to Latin America. Five principles were identified as priority and with the greatest potential to be strengthened at this time: transparency in the production of HTA, involvement of relevant stakeholders in the HTA process, mechanisms to appeal decisions, clear priority-setting processes in HTA, and a clear link between HTA and decision making. The main challenge identified was to find a balance between the application of these principles and the available resources in a way that would not detract from the production of reports and adaptation to the needs of decision makers. The main recommendation was to progress gradually in strengthening HTA and its link to decision making by developing appropriate processes for each country, without trying to impose, in the short-term, standards taken from examples at the international level without adequate adaptation of these to local contexts.

  14. European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Carina; Gonçalves, Ana Ribeiro; Pasion, Rita; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Paiva, Tiago Oliveira; Melo E Castro, Joana; Barbosa, Fernando; Martins, Isabel Pavão; Marques-Teixeira, João

    2018-03-01

    Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are "morally acceptable" elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

  15. European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carina Fernandes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are “morally acceptable” elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

  16. Assessing neural activity related to decision-making through flexible odds ratio curves and their derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Pardo-Vazquez, Jose L; Leboran, Victor; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Acuña, Carlos

    2011-06-30

    It is well established that neural activity is stochastically modulated over time. Therefore, direct comparisons across experimental conditions and determination of change points or maximum firing rates are not straightforward. This study sought to compare temporal firing probability curves that may vary across groups defined by different experimental conditions. Odds-ratio (OR) curves were used as a measure of comparison, and the main goal was to provide a global test to detect significant differences of such curves through the study of their derivatives. An algorithm is proposed that enables ORs based on generalized additive models, including factor-by-curve-type interactions to be flexibly estimated. Bootstrap methods were used to draw inferences from the derivatives curves, and binning techniques were applied to speed up computation in the estimation and testing processes. A simulation study was conducted to assess the validity of these bootstrap-based tests. This methodology was applied to study premotor ventral cortex neural activity associated with decision-making. The proposed statistical procedures proved very useful in revealing the neural activity correlates of decision-making in a visual discrimination task. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Decision making in urological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

    2012-06-01

    Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

  18. Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Bova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism (PE is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

  19. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Rozental, J.J.; Tranjan Filho, A.

    2001-01-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of 137 CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10 3 m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10 3 m 3 of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10 5 m 2 . The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The problem of a fixed, or near

  20. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rozental, J.J. [Ministry of Environment (Israel); Tranjan Filho, A. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of {sup 137}CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10{sup 3} m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10{sup 3} m{sup 3} of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10{sup 5} m{sup 2}. The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The

  1. Towards Integrated Health Technology Assessment for Improving Decision Making in Selected Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oortwijn, Wija; Determann, Domino; Schiffers, Krijn; Tan, Siok Swan; van der Tuin, Jeroen

    2017-09-01

    To assess the level of comprehensiveness of health technology assessment (HTA) practices around the globe and to formulate recommendations for enhancing legitimacy and fairness of related decision-making processes. To identify best practices, we developed an evaluation framework consisting of 13 criteria on the basis of the INTEGRATE-HTA model (integrative perspective on assessing health technologies) and the Accountability for Reasonableness framework (deliberative appraisal process). We examined different HTA systems in middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Thailand) and high-income countries (Australia, Canada, England, France, Germany, Scotland, and South Korea). For this purpose, desk research and structured interviews with relevant key stakeholders (N = 32) in the selected countries were conducted. HTA systems in Canada, England, and Scotland appear relatively well aligned with our framework, followed by Australia, Germany, and France. Argentina and South Korea are at an early stage, whereas Brazil and Thailand are at an intermediate level. Both desk research and interviews revealed that scoping is often not part of the HTA process. In contrast, providing evidence reports for assessment is well established. Indirect and unintended outcomes are increasingly considered, but there is room for improvement. Monitoring and evaluation of the HTA process is not well established across countries. Finally, adopting transparent and robust processes, including stakeholder consultation, takes time. This study presents a framework for assessing the level of comprehensiveness of the HTA process in a country. On the basis of applying the framework, we formulate recommendations on how the HTA community can move toward a more integrated decision-making process using HTA. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Environmental impact assessment and eco-friendly decision-making in civil structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Hyo; Choi, Moon-Seock; Mha, Ho-Seong; Joung, Jung-Yeun

    2013-09-15

    This study develops two useful procedures in performing an environmental-impact assessment. One is the advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) method, which effectively tracks the flow of materials and considers the recycling and demolition of a civil structure. The other is an eco-friendly decision-making procedure, which may effectively apply when determining the prototype of a civil structure. The advanced LCA method differs from traditional LCA procedure, as it classifies the input material prior to the impact assessment. Classification work is performed to establish independent life-cycle stages for each material. The processes of recycling and demolition are appropriately added to the life-cycle stages. The impact assessment is performed separately for the materials, and results are aggregated at the end of the analysis. The eco-friendly decision-making procedure enables designers to choose an economical, and environmentally friendly, alternative during the planning phase of the construction project. This procedure rationally amalgamates economical value and environmental effects into a single indicator. The life cycle cost (LCC) of a structure can be analysed by using conventional LCC tools, whereas the environmental impact is estimated by LCA. The results from LCC and LCA are then integrated by using either a CO2 conversion method or an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The CO2 conversion method presents the result as a monetary value, whereas the AHP presents the result as a non-dimensional value. A practical example using a steel box girder bridge and a pre-stressed concrete (PSC) box-girder bridge is also given in order to aid the understanding of the presented procedure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooseh, Shakoor; Bernhardt, Nadine; Guevara, Alvaro; Huys, Quentin J M; Smolka, Michael N

    2018-02-01

    Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

  4. Why is it hard to make progress in assessing children's decision-making competence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Irma M; Troost, Pieter W; Broersma, Alice; de Vries, Martine C; Daams, Joost G; Lindauer, Ramón J L

    2015-01-10

    For decades, the discussion on children's competence to consent to medical issues has concentrated around normative concerns, with little progress in clinical practices. Decision-making competence is an important condition in the informed consent model. In pediatrics, clinicians need to strike a proper balance in order to both protect children's interests when they are not fully able to do so themselves and to respect their autonomy when they are. Children's competence to consent, however, is currently not assessed in a standardized way. Moreover, the correlation between competence to give informed consent and age in children has never been systematically investigated, nor do we know which factors exactly contribute to children's competence.This article aims at identifying these gaps in knowledge and suggests options for dealing with the obstacles in empirical research in order to advance policies and practices regarding children's medical decision-making competence. Understanding children's competency is hampered by the law. Legislative regulations concerning competency are established on a strong presumption that persons older than a certain age are competent, whereas younger persons are not. Furthermore, a number of contextual factors are believed to be of influence on a child's decision-making competence: the developmental stage of children, the influence of parents and peers, the quality of information provision, life experience, the type of medical decision, and so on. Ostensibly, these diverse and extensive barriers hinder any form of advancement in this conflicted area. Addressing these obstacles encourages the discussion on children's competency, in which the most prominent question concerns the lack of a clear operationalization of children's competence to consent. Empirical data are needed to substantiate the discussion. The empirical approach offers an opportunity to give direction to the debate. Recommendations for future research include: studying a

  5. Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

    2018-05-01

    We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  7. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  8. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    OpenAIRE

    Han-hui LIU; Yan-yan AN; Hui-min LI; Zhen WEI; Xing-ting ZHU; Hui-jie LI

    2014-01-01

    Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult) × 2 (Frame: positive and negative) × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level...

  9. Health technology assessment and primary data collection for reducing uncertainty in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Levin, Les; Chandra, Kiran; Bowen, James M; Blackhouse, Gord; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Burke, Natasha; Bischof, Matthias; Xie, Feng; O'Reilly, Daria

    2009-05-01

    Health care expenditures continue to escalate, and pressures for increased spending will continue. Health care decision makers from publicly financed systems, private insurance companies, or even from individual health care institutions, will continue to be faced with making difficult purchasing, access, and reimbursement decisions. As a result, decision makers are increasingly turning to evidence-based platforms to help control costs and make the most efficient use of existing resources. Most tools used to assist with evidence-based decision making focus on clinical outcomes. Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasing in popularity because it also considers other factors important for decision making, such as cost, social and ethical values, legal issues, and factors such as the feasibility of implementation. In some jurisdictions, HTAs have also been supplemented with primary data collection to help address uncertainty that may still exist after conducting a traditional HTA. The HTA process adopted in Ontario, Canada, is unique in that assessments are also made to determine what primary data research should be conducted and what should be collected in these studies. In this article, concerns with the traditional HTA process are discussed, followed by a description of the HTA process that has been established in Ontario, with a particular focus on the data collection program followed by the Programs for Assessment of Technology in Health Research Institute. An illustrative example is used to show how the Ontario HTA process works and the role value of information analyses plays in addressing decision uncertainty, determining research feasibility, and determining study data collection needs.

  10. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  11. Health technology assessment in India: the potential for improved healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Mrityunjai; Ebrahim, Shah; Taylor, Fiona C; Chokshi, Maulik; Gabbay, John

    2014-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary approach that uses clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, policy and ethical perspectives to provide evidence upon which rational decisions on the use of health technologies can be made. It can be used for a single stand-alone technology (e.g. a drug, a device), complex interventions (e.g. a rehabilitation service) and can also be applied to individual patient care and to public health. It is a tool for enabling the assessment and comparison of health technologies using the same metric of cost-effectiveness. This process benefits the patient, the health service, the healthcare payer and the technology producer as only technologies that are considered cost-effective are promoted for widespread use. This leads to greater use of effective technologies and greater health gain. The decision-making process in healthcare in India is complex owing to multiplicity of organizations with overlapping mandates. Often the decision-making is not evidence-based and there is no mechanism of bridging the gap between evidence and policy. Elsewhere, HTA is a frequently used tool in informing policy decisions in both resource-rich and resource-poor countries. Despite national organizations producing large volumes of research and clinical guidelines, India has not yet introduced a formal HTA programme. The incremental growth in healthcare products, services, innovation in affordable medical devices and a move towards universal healthcare, needs to be underpinned with an evidencebase which focuses on effectiveness, safety, affordability and acceptability to maximize the benefits that can be gained with a limited healthcare budget. Establishing HTA as a formal process in India, independent of healthcare providers, funders and technology producers, together with a framework for linking HTA to policy-making, would help ensure that the population gets better access to appropriate healthcare in the future. Copyright 2014, NMJI.

  12. Strategic environmental assessment and the limits to rationality in decision making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone

    The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA.......The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA....

  13. Heuristic Principles and Cognitive Bias in Decision Making: Implications for Assessment in School Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidow, Joseph; Levinson, Edward M.

    1993-01-01

    Describes factors that may bias psychoeducational decision making and discusses three heuristic principles that affect decision making. Discusses means by which school psychologists can be made aware of these heuristic principles and encouraged to consider them when making psychoeducational decisions. Also discusses methods by which bias in…

  14. Exploration of Risks in Autonomous Decision-Making Applied to Aeronautics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prior research into metrics and design for autonomy were presented. At this time, the prospect of adding significant autonomous decision-making on a piloted aircraft...

  15. The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaivanto, Kim

    2014-12-01

    Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling

    OpenAIRE

    Quartz, Steven R.

    2009-01-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parame...

  17. Risk and uncertainty: shifting decision making for aneuploidy screening to the first trimester of pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Ruth M; Dolgin, Natasha; Flocke, Susan A; Winbush, Victoria; Mercer, Mary Beth; Simon, Christian

    2011-05-01

    The clinical introduction of first trimester aneuploidy screening uniquely challenges the informed consent process for both patients and providers. This study investigated key aspects of the decision-making process for this new form of prenatal genetic screening. Qualitative data were collected by nine focus groups that comprised women of different reproductive histories (N = 46 participants). Discussions explored themes regarding patient decision making for first trimester aneuploidy screening. Sessions were audio recorded, transcribed, coded, and analyzed to identify themes. Multiple levels of uncertainty characterize the decision-making process for first trimester aneuploidy screening. Baseline levels of uncertainty existed for participants in the context of an early pregnancy and the debate about the benefit of fetal genetic testing in general. Additional sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process were generated from weighing the advantages and disadvantages of initiating screening in the first trimester as opposed to waiting until the second. Questions of the quality and quantity of information and the perceived benefit of earlier access to fetal information were leading themes. Barriers to access prenatal care in early pregnancy presented participants with additional concerns about the ability to make informed decisions about prenatal genetic testing. The option of the first trimester aneuploidy screening test in early pregnancy generates decision-making uncertainty that can interfere with the informed consent process. Mechanisms must be developed to facilitate informed decision making for this new form of prenatal genetic screening.

  18. Decision making under risk : a study of models and measurement procedures with special reference to the farmer's marketing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smidts, A.

    1990-01-01

    The objectives of the study were: a) to review, discuss and test a number of theories on individual decision making under risk; much attention is specifically given to the definition and empirical testing of the concept of relative risk attitude, b) to investigate in a large scale survey

  19. Decision making under risk. A study of models and measurement procedures with special reference to the farmers' marketing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Smidts (Ale)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractThe objectives of the study were: a) to review, discuss and test a number of theories on individual decision making under risk; much attention is specifically given to the definition and empirical testing of the concept of relative risk attitude, b) to investigate in a large scale survey

  20. The Effect of Knowledge of Online Security Risks on Consumer Decision Making in B2C e-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ping An

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation research studied how different degrees of knowledge of online security risks affect B2C (business-to-consumer) e-commerce consumer decision making. Online information security risks, such as identity theft, have increasingly become a major factor inhibiting the potential growth of e-commerce. On the other hand, e-commerce…

  1. Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2015-06-01

    While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

  2. Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

    2018-01-01

    Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically. PMID:29444107

  4. [Evidence-based Risk and Benefit Communication for Shared Decision Making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Takeo

    2018-01-01

     Evidence-based medicine (EBM) can be defined as "the integration of the best research evidence with clinical expertise and a patient's unique values and circumstances". However, even with the best research evidence, many uncertainties can make clinical decisions difficult. As the social requirement of respecting patient values and preferences has been increasingly recognized, shared decision making (SDM) and consensus development between patients and clinicians have attracted attention. SDM is a process by which patients and clinicians make decisions and arrive at a consensus through interactive conversations and communications. During the process of SDM, patients and clinicians share information with each other on the goals they hope to achieve and responsibilities in meeting those goals. From the clinician's standpoint, information regarding the benefits and risks of potential treatment options based on current evidence and professional experience is provided to patients. From the patient's standpoint, information on personal values, preferences, and social roles is provided to clinicians. SDM is a sort of "wisdom" in the context of making autonomous decisions in uncertain, difficult situations through interactions and cooperation between patients and clinicians. Joint development of EBM and SDM will help facilitate patient-clinician relationships and improve the quality of healthcare.

  5. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonavia, Tomas; Brox-Ponce, Josué

    2018-01-01

    The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

  6. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Bonavia

    Full Text Available The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

  7. Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

    2015-04-01

    Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

  8. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  9. The development and implementation of a decision-making capacity assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmar, Jasneet; Brémault-Phillips, Suzette; Charles, Lesley

    2015-03-01

    Decision-making capacity assessment (DMCA) is an issue of increasing importance for older adults. Current challenges need to be explored, and potential processes and strategies considered in order to address issues of DMCA in a more coordinated manner. An iterative process was used to address issues related to DMCA. This began with recognition of challenges associated with capacity assessments (CAs) by staff at Covenant Health (CH). Review of the literature, as well as discussions with and a survey of staff at three CH sites, resulted in determination of issues related to DMCA. Development of a DMCA Model and demonstration of its feasibility followed. A process was proposed with front-end screening/problem- solving, a well-defined standard assessment, and definition of team member roles. A Capacity Assessment Care Map was formulated based on the process. Documentation was developed consisting of a Capacity Assessment Process Worksheet, Capacity Interview Worksheet, and a brochure. Interactive workshops were delivered to familiarize staff with the DMCA Model. A successful demonstration project led to implementation across all sites in the Capital Health region, and eventual provincial endorsement. Concerns identified in the survey and in the literature regarding CA were addressed through the holistic interdisciplinary approach offered by the DMCA Model.

  10. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  11. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities ers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  12. Risk communication: Translating technically complex information to facilitate informed decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprecher, W.M.; Turner, E.

    1991-01-01

    Based on a review of risk communication and related literature, including policy material, this paper describes the newly revamped risk management program of the DOE's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), and some of the risk-related issues being confronted as the high-level waste management program moves forward. It also describes preliminary activities underway in which the OCRWM is developing strategies for risk communication. The authors offer a definition of risk management as comprised by the components of risk assessment and risk communication. The paper explores the discrepant views that experts and nonexperts have with respect to what constitutes a valid risk assessment model. By illustrating differences in the assessment of risk by experts and lay people, the paper demonstrates how these differences can create challenges in communicating risk and making decisions about risk. Finally, the paper discusses ways in which risk communication could be enhance, and elaborates on the OCRWM's commitment to improve its overall risk management efforts

  13. Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

    2018-06-08

    This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

  14. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  15. IDENTIFYING HIGH-RISK POPULATIONS OF TUBERCULOSIS USING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Abdul Rasam

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of an innovative method to enhance the detection of tuberculosis (TB in Malaysia is the latest agenda of the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a geographical information system (GIS based index model is proposed as an alternative method for defining potential high-risk areas of local TB cases at Section U19, Shah Alam. It is adopted a spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM method for ranking environmental risk factors of the disease in a standardised five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 illustrate the lowest and the highest risk of the TB spread respectively, while scale from 3 to 5 is included as a potential risk level. These standardised scale values are then combined with expert normalised weights (0 to 1 to calculate the overall index values and produce a TB ranked map using a GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination. It is discovered that 71.43% of the Section is potential as TB high risk areas particularly at urban and densely populated settings. This predictive result is also reliable with the current real cases in 2015 by 76.00% accuracy. A GIS based MCDM method has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and TB surveillance monitoring system of the country, but the result could be strengthened by applying other uncertainty assessment method.

  16. Solution spaces for decision-making-a sustainability assessment tool for city-regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiek, Arnim; Binder, Claudia

    2005-01-01

    The sound development of city-regions presents a major planning challenge, as these regions are and will be the living spaces for the majority of the population. Therefore, a key question is how city-regions can be managed so that they develop in a sustainable way. Although Environmental Impact Assessment, Integrated Assessment, and other currently used approaches provide significant inputs for managing transition-processes towards sustainability, they must be extended to respond to three major deficiencies, which are (i) using lists of isolated indicators (ii) not performing a consistency analysis of the targets to be achieved, and (iii) not utilizing the potential of transdisciplinary approaches. The authors present an approach to constructing Sustainability Solution Spaces for Decision-Making (SSP). This approach fulfils the systemic, normative, and procedural requirements of an appropriate sustainability assessment as elaborated in the technical literature. It provides a consistent set of targets considering the systemic relations among the indicators representing the city-region. This gives the decision-makers a concise guideline for sustainable decisions and makes them aware of the synergistic and contradictory effects of their decisions. The modular tool is first depicted as a general procedure and later differentiated into two transdisciplinary approaches, a participatory and an expert approach

  17. Prediction of Risk Behaviors in HIV-infected Patients Based on Family Functioning: The Mediating Roles of Lifestyle and Risky Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariba Ebrahim Babaei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective: Risk behaviors are more common in the HIV-positive patients than that in the general population. These behaviors are affected by various factors, such as biological, familial, and social determinants, peer group, media, and lifestyle. Low family functioning is one of the important factors predicting risk behaviors. Regarding this, the present study aimed to investigate the role of family functioning in predicting risk behaviors in the HIV-infected patients based on the mediating roles of risky decision making and lifestyle. Materials and Methods: This descriptive correlational study was conducted on 147 HIV-positive patients selected through convenience sampling technique. The data were collected using the health promoting lifestyle profile-2 (HPLP-2, family adaptability and cohesion scale IV (FACES-IV, balloon analogue risk task (BART, and risk behavior assessment in social situation. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling method in LISREL 8.8 software. Results: According to the results, there was an indirect relationship between family functioning and risk behaviors. Furthermore, family functioning both directly and indirectly affected the risk behaviors through two mediators of lifestyle and risky decision making. Conclusion: As the findings indicated, family functioning directly contributed to risk behaviors. Moreover, this variable indirectly affected risk behaviors through the mediating roles of risky decision making and lifestyle. Consequently, the future studies should focus more deeply on family functioning role in the risk behaviors of the HIV-infected patients.

  18. Dissociable roles for the basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex in decision-making under risk of punishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Trotta, Rose T; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2015-01-28

    Several neuropsychiatric disorders are associated with abnormal decision-making involving risk of punishment, but the neural basis of this association remains poorly understood. Altered activity in brain systems including the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) can accompany these same disorders, and these structures are implicated in some forms of decision-making. The current study investigated the role of the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Rats were trained in the risky decision-making task (RDT), in which they chose between two levers, one that delivered a small safe reward, and the other that delivered a large reward accompanied by varying risks of footshock punishment. Following training, they received sham or neurotoxic lesions of BLA or OFC, followed by RDT retesting. BLA lesions increased choice of the large risky reward (greater risk-taking) compared to both prelesion performance and sham controls. When reward magnitudes were equated, both BLA lesion and control groups shifted their choice to the safe (no shock) reward lever, indicating that the lesions did not impair punishment sensitivity. In contrast to BLA lesions, OFC lesions significantly decreased risk-taking compared with sham controls, but did not impair discrimination between different reward magnitudes or alter baseline levels of anxiety. Finally, neither lesion significantly affected food-motivated lever pressing under various fixed ratio schedules, indicating that lesion-induced alterations in risk-taking were not secondary to changes in appetitive motivation. Together, these findings indicate distinct roles for the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351368-12$15.00/0.

  19. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartz, Steven R

    2009-05-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parameters correspond to various decision-making frameworks, and their correspondence to emotional and rational processes. Here, I review research suggesting that emotional processes encode in a precise quantitative manner the basic parameters of financial decision theory, indicating a reorientation of emotional and cognitive contributions to risky choice.

  20. Decision-making under risk conditions is susceptible to interference by a secondary executive task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starcke, Katrin; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Wolf, Oliver T; Altstötter-Gleich, Christine; Brand, Matthias

    2011-05-01

    Recent research suggests two ways of making decisions: an intuitive and an analytical one. The current study examines whether a secondary executive task interferes with advantageous decision-making in the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps executive functioning. One group of participants performed the original GDT solely, two groups performed either the GDT and a 1-back or a 2-back working memory task as a secondary task simultaneously. Results show that the group which performed the GDT and the secondary task with high executive load (2-back) decided less advantageously than the group which did not perform a secondary executive task. These findings give further evidence for the view that decision-making under risky conditions taps into the rational-analytical system which acts in a serial and not parallel way as performance on the GDT is disturbed by a parallel task that also requires executive resources.

  1. Acute renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy in the intensive care unit: impact on prognostic assessment for shared decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Robert F; Gustin, Jillian

    2011-07-01

    A 69-year-old female was receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) for acute renal failure (ARF) in an intensive care unit (ICU). Consultation was requested from the palliative medicine service to facilitate a shared decision-making process regarding goals of care. Clinician responsibility in shared decision making includes the formulation and expression of a prognostic assessment providing the necessary perspective for a spokesperson to match patient values with treatment options. For this patient, ARF requiring RRT in the ICU was used as a focal point for preparing a prognostic assessment. A prognostic assessment should include the outcomes of most importance to a discussion of goals of care: mortality risk and survivor functional status, in this case including renal recovery. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to document published data regarding these outcomes for adult patients receiving RRT for ARF in the ICU. Forty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. The combined mean values for short-term mortality, long-term mortality, renal-function recovery of short-term survivors, and renal-function recovery of long-term survivors were 51.7%, 68.6%, 82.0%, and 88.4%, respectively. This case example illustrates a process for formulating and expressing a prognostic assessment for an ICU patient requiring RRT for ARF. Data from the literature review provide baseline information that requires adjustment to reflect specific patient circumstances. The nature of the acute primary process, comorbidities, and severity of illness are key modifiers. Finally, the prognostic assessment is expressed during a family meeting using recommended principles of communication.

  2. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  3. Involving patients in decision making and communicating risk: a longitudinal evaluation of doctors' attitudes and confidence during a randomized trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Important barriers to the wider implementation of shared decision making (SDM) and risk communication in practice remain. The attitudes of professionals undergoing training in these approaches may inform how to overcome these barriers, but there are few such data yet available. AIM: To

  4. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

    2015-01-01

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  5. Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeleine E Sharp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. OBJECTIVE: We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. DESIGN/METHODS: Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. RESULTS: Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. CONCLUSIONS: This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

  6. Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

  7. A New Decision-Making Method for Stock Portfolio Selection Based on Computing with Linguistic Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Tung Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock portfolio selection is how to allocate the capital to a large number of stocks in order to bring a most profitable return for investors. In most of past literatures, experts considered the portfolio of selection problem only based on past crisp or quantitative data. However, many qualitative and quantitative factors will influence the stock portfolio selection in real investment situation. It is very important for experts or decision-makers to use their experience or knowledge to predict the performance of each stock and make a stock portfolio. Because of the knowledge, experience, and background of each expert are different and vague, different types of 2-tuple linguistic variable are suitable used to express experts' opinions for the performance evaluation of each stock with respect to criteria. According to the linguistic evaluations of experts, the linguistic TOPSIS and linguistic ELECTRE methods are combined to present a new decision-making method for dealing with stock selection problems in this paper. Once the investment set has been determined, the risk preferences of investor are considered to calculate the investment ratio of each stock in the investment set. Finally, an example is implemented to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method.

  8. Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Somkrua, Ratchadaporn; Hutubessy, Raymond; Henao, Ana Maria; Hombach, Joachim; Melegaro, Alessia; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

    2011-05-12

    Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results. The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions. Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example

  9. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  10. Management of the geriatric trauma patient at risk of death: therapy withdrawal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trunkey, D D; Cahn, R M; Lenfesty, B; Mullins, R

    2000-01-01

    The management of geriatric injured patients admitted to a trauma center includes the selective decision to provide comfort care only, including withdrawal of therapy, and a choice to not use full application of standard therapies. The decision makers in this process include multiple individuals in addition to the patient. Retrospective review of documentation by 2 blinded reviewers of the cohort of patients over a recent 5-year period (1993-1997). Trauma service of a level I trauma center. A convenience sample of patients aged 65 years and older who died, and whose medical record was available for review. Patients were categorized as having withdrawal of therapy, and documentation in the medical record of who made the assessment decisions and recommendations, and to what extent the processes of care were documented. Among 87 geriatric trauma patients who died, 47 had documentation interpreted as indicating a decision was made to withdraw therapy. In only a few circumstances was the patient capable of actively participating in these decisions. The other individuals involved in recommendations for withdrawal of therapy were, in order of prevalence, the treating trauma surgeon, family members (as proxy reporting the patient's preferences), or a second physician. Documentation regarding the end-of-life decisions was often fragmentary, and in some cases ambiguous. Copies of legal advance directives were rarely available in the medical record, and ethics committee participation was used only once. Withdrawal of therapy is a common event in the terminal care of geriatric injured patients. The process for reaching a decision regarding withdrawal of therapy is complex because in most circumstances patients' injuries preclude their full participation. Standards for documentation of essential information, including patients' preferences and decision-making ability, should be developed to improve the process and assist with recording these complicated decisions that often

  11. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

    2014-07-01

    A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  12. An Introduction to Decision Making When Uncertainty Is Not Just Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1992-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to events, that is, to sets of possible outcomes. In this paper we give an introduction to this concept and a first contribution to modeling decision making when...... there is uncertainty. We extend the von Neumann- Morgenstern expected utility theory to belief functions....

  13. Assessment of hydrogen fuel cell applications using fuzzy multiple-criteria decision making method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Pao-Long; Hsu, Chiung-Wen; Lin, Chiu-Yue

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This study uses the fuzzy MCDM method to assess hydrogen fuel cell applications. ► We evaluate seven different hydrogen fuel cell applications based on 14 criteria. ► Results show that fuel cell backup power systems should be chosen for development in Taiwan. -- Abstract: Assessment is an essential process in framing government policy. It is critical to select the appropriate targets to meet the needs of national development. This study aimed to develop an assessment model for evaluating hydrogen fuel cell applications and thus provide a screening tool for decision makers. This model operates by selecting evaluation criteria, determining criteria weights, and assessing the performance of hydrogen fuel cell applications for each criterion. The fuzzy multiple-criteria decision making method was used to select the criteria and the preferred hydrogen fuel cell products based on information collected from a group of experts. Survey questionnaires were distributed to collect opinions from experts in different fields. After the survey, the criteria weights and a ranking of alternatives were obtained. The study first defined the evaluation criteria in terms of the stakeholders, so that comprehensive influence criteria could be identified. These criteria were then classified as environmental, technological, economic, or social to indicate the purpose of each criterion in the assessment process. The selected criteria included 14 indicators, such as energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions, as well as seven hydrogen fuel cell applications, such as forklifts and backup power systems. The results show that fuel cell backup power systems rank the highest, followed by household fuel cell electric-heat composite systems. The model provides a screening tool for decision makers to select hydrogen-related applications.

  14. Assessing Option Grid® practicability and feasibility for facilitating shared decision making: An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsulukidze, Maka; Grande, Stuart W; Gionfriddo, Michael R

    2015-07-01

    To assess the feasibility of Option Grids(®)for facilitating shared decision making (SDM) in simulated clinical consultations and explore clinicians' views on their practicability. We used mixed methods approach to analyze clinical consultations using the Observer OPTION instrument and thematic analysis for follow-up interviews with clinicians. Clinicians achieved high scores on information sharing and low scores on preference elicitation and integration. Four themes were identified: (1) Barriers affect practicability of Option Grids(®); (2) Option Grids(®) facilitate the SDM process; (3) Clinicians are aware of the gaps in their practice of SDM; (4) Training and ongoing feedback on the optimal use of Option Grids(®) are necessary. Use of Option Grids(®) by clinicians with background knowledge in SDM did not facilitate optimal levels of competency on the SDM core concepts of preference elicitation and integration. Future research must evaluate the impact of training on the use of Option Grids(®), and explore how best to help clinicians bridge the gap between knowledge and action. Clinicians proficiently imparting information in simulations struggled to elicit and integrate patient preferences - understanding this gap and developing strategies to close it are the next steps for implementing SDM into clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Robust Priority for Strategic Environmental Assessment with Incomplete Information Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeryong Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates how the priority rankings for dam construction sites vary with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM techniques and generation approaches for incomplete information. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA seeks to recommend sustainable dam construction sites based on their environmental and ecological impacts in a long-term plan for dam construction (LPDC in South Korea. However, if specific information is missing, the SEA is less useful for choosing a dam construction site. In this study, we applied AHP, ELECTRE III, PROMETHEE II and Compromise Programming as MCDM techniques, and used binomial and uniform distributions to generate missing information. We considered five dam site selection situations and compared the results as they depended on both MCDM techniques and information generation methods. The binomial generation method showed the most obvious priorities. All MCDM techniques showed similar priorities in the dam site selection results except for ELECTREE III. The results demonstrate that selecting an appropriate MCDM technique is more important than the data generation method. However, using binomial distribution to generate missing information is more effective in providing a robust priority than uniform distribution, which is a commonly used technique.

  16. Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip T. Dunwoody

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Hammond (1996 argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (CandC and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to understand the differences between these two criteria. extit{Hammond's claim} is that conclusions about the competence of judgments and decisions will depend upon the selection of coherence or correspondence as the criterion (Hammond, 2008. First, I provide an overview of the terms coherence and correspondence (CandC as philosophical theories of truth and relate them to the field of JDM. Second, I provide an example of Hammond's claim by examining literature on base rate neglect. Third, I examine Hammond's claim as it applies to the broader field of JDM. Fourth, I critique Hammond's claim and suggest that refinements to the CandC distinction are needed. Specifically, the CandC distinction 1 is more accurately applied to criteria than to researchers, 2 should be refined to include two important types of coherence (inter and intrapersonal coherence and 3 neglects the third philosophical theory of truth, pragmatism. Pragmatism, as a class of criteria in JDM, is defined as goal attainment. In order to provide the most complete assessment of human judgment possible, and understand different findings in the field of JDM, all three criteria should be considered.

  17. Managing partnerships and impact on decision-making: the example of health technology assessment in genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blancquaert, Ingeborg

    2006-01-01

    For an emerging field such as Public Health Genetics, the partnerships that will be developed with stakeholders are of strategic importance, since they may affect long-term impact on policy-making. A concrete example in the field of health technology assessment in genetics was chosen to illustrate how the context in which scientific advisory bodies operate and the nature of partnerships developed over time influence the impact on decision-making at different levels, from the micro (professional) level through the meso (institutional) level to the macro (policy) level. As pointed out in the knowledge transfer literature, impact is not only reflected by instrumental use of knowledge, but also by problem-framing and strategic use of knowledge. Solid partnerships at the micro level, with researchers and health care professionals, are essential to build credibility and trust, and they lay the groundwork for contextualized and relevant advice and potential impact at the policy level. Even though maintaining the necessary critical distance with respect to all stakeholders is easier for institutions that are at arm's length from government, achieving the right balance between an institution's independence and service relationship is a real challenge. Copyright (c) 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Multiple criteria decision making with life cycle assessment for material selection of composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Milani

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available With the advancement of interdisciplinary approaches in today’s modern engineering, current efforts in optimal design of composites include seeking material selection protocols that can (1 simultaneously consider a series of mechanical/electrical/chemical cost criteria over a set of alternative material options, and (2 closely take into account environmental aspects of final products including recycling and end-of-life disposal options. In this paper, in addition to a review of some recent experimental and methodological advances in the above areas, a new application of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM is presented to deal with decision conflicts often seen among design criteria in composite material selection with the help of life cycle assessment (LCA. To show the application, an illustrative case study on a plastic gear material selection is conducted where the cost, mechanical and thermal properties along with environmental impact criteria are to be satisfied simultaneously. A pure plastic gear is compared to a Polyethylene terephthalate (PET/aluminum-powder composite alternative. Results suggest that simple MCDM models, including a signal-to-noise measure adapted to MCDM in the same case study, can be used to explore both trade-offs and design break-even points in large decision spaces as the decision maker’s perspective over environmental, material performance and cost attributes change during the design process. More advanced topics including the account of material data uncertainties are addressed.

  19. The Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS): A new tool for assessing financial decision making and preventing financial exploitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ficker, Lisa; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Tatro, Ron; Farrell, Cynthia; Speir, James J; Mall, Sanford J; Simasko, Patrick; Collens, Howard H; Jackman, John Daniel

    2016-01-01

    One of the challenges in preventing the financial exploitation of older adults is that neither criminal justice nor noncriminal justice professionals are equipped to detect capacity deficits. Because decision-making capacity is a cornerstone assessment in cases of financial exploitation, effective instruments for measuring this capacity are essential. We introduce a new screening scale for financial decision making that can be administered to older adults. To explore the scale's implementation and assess construct validity, we conducted a pilot study of 29 older adults seen by APS (Adult Protective Services) workers and 79 seen by other professionals. Case examples are included.

  20. Exploring the relation between evidence and decision-making A political-administrative approach to health impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekker, Marleen P.M.; Putters, Kim; Grinten, Tom E.D. van der

    2004-01-01

    Like any policy-relevant research, HIA faces the risk of not being used by decisions-makers. This article addresses the questions: 'How do policy decisions come about?' and 'How does this affect HIA?' Current literature in political-administrative sciences identifies three ways for decision-making: rational, incremental and mixed model. These models define the relationship between the policy process at stake and the HIA. In incremental or mixed model decision-making, use of HIA evidence by policy-makers is heavily dependent on their values in the context, which may result in conceptual utilization or may extend to strategic utilization. In rational decision-making, HIA provides information independent from the context, which results in instrumental utilization. HIA practitioners need to optimise utilization and produce an appropriate HIA by mapping the policy process. They can do this by asking the questions 'What? How? Who? and What context? and by maintaining continuous communication with the decision-makers. An appropriate HIA is policy-, time- and place-specific: reflecting the decision-making of the policy at stake. Furthermore, HIA concerns two policy fields with two different contexts and, in some cases, two different decision-making models. The administrative requirements for an appropriate HIA need further exploration

  1. Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

    2017-01-01

    Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

  2. Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

    2017-09-17

    Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

  3. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  4. Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.

  5. Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society

  6. Betting on DBS: Effects of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation on risk taking and decision making in patients with Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Rogerson, Mark; Al-Joudi, Haya; Reckess, Gila; Shpritz, Barnett; Umeh, Chizoba C; Aljehani, Noha; Mills, Kelly; Mari, Zoltan

    2015-07-01

    Concerns persist that deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease (PD) increases impulsivity or induces excessive reward seeking. We report here the performance of PD patients with implanted subthalamic nucleus electrodes, with stimulation on and off, on 3 laboratory tasks of risk taking and decision making. They are compared with PD patients maintained on medication and healthy participants. In the Game of Dice Task, a test of "risky" decision making, PD patients with or without DBS made highest risk bets more often and ended up with less money than did healthy participants. There was a trend for DBS stimulation to ameliorate this effect. Deal or No-Deal is an "ambiguous" decision-making task that assessed preference for risk (holding on to one's briefcase) over a "sure thing" (accepting the banker's offer). Here, DBS patients were more conservative with stimulation on than with it off. They accepted smaller offers from the banker and won less money in the DBS-on condition. Overall, the 2 PD groups won less money than did healthy participants. The Framing Paradigm assessed willingness to gamble on a fixed (unambiguous) prize depending on whether the reward was "framed" as a loss or a gain. Nonsurgical PD patients tended to be more risk-averse than were healthy participants, whereas DBS patients were more willing to gamble for gains as well as losses both on and off stimulation. On risky decision-making tasks, DBS patients took more risks than did healthy participants, but stimulation may temper this tendency. In contrast, in an ambiguous-risk situation, DBS patients were more risk-averse (conservative) than were healthy participants, and this tendency was greatest with stimulation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Assessment of decision making models in sensitive technology: the nuclear energy case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Eduardo Ramos Ferreira da

    2007-01-01

    In this paper a bibliographic review is proceeded on the decision making processes approaching the sensitive technologies (the military and civilian uses as well), and the nuclear technology herself. It is made a correlation among the development of the nuclear technology and the decision making processes, showing that from 70 decade on, such processes are connected to the national security doctrines influenced by the Brazilian War College. So, every time that the national security is altered, so is the master line of the decision making process altered. In the Brazil case, the alteration appeared from the World War II up to the new proposals coming out from the Ministry of Defense are shown related to the nuclear technology. The existent models are analysed with a conclusion that such models are unveiling at the present situation of the moment, concerning to the nuclear technology

  8. An assessment of faculty and dental student decision-making in ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behar-Horenstein, Linda S; Catalanotto, Frank A; Garvan, Cynthia Wilson; Hudson-Vassell, Charisse

    2014-01-01

    This study reports and compares dental student and dental faculty scores to national norms for the Defining Issues Test 2, a measure of ethical decision-making competency. The findings showed that dental students and faculty tend to make decisions that promote self-interest, paralleling the ethical orientation of business professionals. Differences associated with gender, language, and norms from previous studies were observed. The findings underscore the importance of raising dental faculty and student awareness of their own ethical decision-making approaches. More importantly, the findings highlight the need to ensure that dental faculty have both the knowledge and skills to train dental students about the central role that ethical decision-making must play in patient care.

  9. Decreased modulation by the risk level on the brain activation during decision making in adolescents with internet gaming disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin eQi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Greater impulse and risk-taking and reduced decision-making ability were reported as the main behavioral impairments in individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD, which has become a serious mental health issue worldwide. However, it is not clear to date how the risk level modulates brain activity during the decision-making process in IGD individuals. In this study, 23 adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs without IGD were recruited, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART was used in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment to evaluate the modulation of the risk level (the probability of balloon explosion on brain activity during risky decisionmaking in IGD adolescents. Reduced modulation of the risk level on the activation of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC during the active BART was found in IGD group compared to the HCs. In the IGD group, there was a significant negative correlation between the risk-related DLPFC activation during the active BART and the Barratt impulsivity scale (BIS-11 scores, which were significantly higher in IGD group compared with the HCs. Our study demonstrated that, as a critical decision-making-related brain region, the right DLPFC is less sensitive to risk in IGD adolescents compared with the HCs, which may contribute to the higher impulsivity level in IGD adolescents.

  10. Decision making in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labudda, Kirsten; Frigge, Kristina; Horstmann, Simone; Aengenendt, Joerg; Woermann, Friedrich G; Ebner, Alois; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    The mesiotemporal lobe is involved in decision making processes because bilateral amygdala damage can cause impairments in decision making that is mainly based on the processing of emotional feedback. In addition to executive functions, previous studies have suggested the involvement of feedback processing in decision making under risk when explicit information about consequences and their probabilities is provided. In the current study, we investigated whether unilateral mesiotemporal damage, comprising of the hippocampus and/or the amygdala, results in alterations of both kinds of decision making. For this purpose, we preoperatively examined 20 patients with refractory unilateral mesiotemporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and a comparison group (CG) of 20 healthy volunteers with the Iowa Gambling Task to assess decision making based on feedback processing, the Game of Dice Task to assess decision making under risk, and with a neuropsychological test battery. Results indicate that TLE patients performed normally in decision making under risk, but can exhibit disturbances in decision making on the Iowa Gambling Task. A subgroup analysis revealed that those patients with a preference for the disadvantageous alternatives performed worse on executive subcomponents and had seizure onset at an earlier age in comparison to the patient subgroup without disadvantageous decision making. Furthermore, disadvantageous decision making can emerge in patients with selective hippocampal sclerosis not extended to the amygdala. Thus, our results demonstrate for the first time that presurgical patients with TLE can have selective reductions in decision making and that these deficits can result from hippocampal lesions without structural amygdala abnormalities.

  11. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  12. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

    2018-04-13

    Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  13. The Evaluation of the Adequacy of PRA Results for Risk-informed Decision Makings With Respect to Incompleteness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyungmin; Jae, Moosung

    2007-01-01

    PRA(Probabilistic Risk Assessment), as a quantitative tool, has many strengths as well as weaknesses. There are several limitations on the use of PRA techniques for risk modeling and analysis. First, the true values of most model inputs are unknown. Ideally, probability distribution models are well developed and assigned to the unknown input parameters to reflect the analyst's state of knowledge of the values of this input parameter. The problem of overconfidence and lack of confidence in the values of certain model input parameters can lead to inaccurate PRA results. Secondly, the analyst's lack of knowledge of a system's practical application as opposed to its theoretical operation can lead to modeling errors. The quality of PRAs has been addressed by a number of regulatory and industry organizations Some have argued that a good PRA should be a complete, full scope, three level PRA, while others have claimed that the quality of a PRA should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported. we show by way of an example that the adequacy of a PRA results is important to risk-informed decision making process and should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported

  14. Risk-informed decision making in the nuclear industry: Application and effectiveness comparison of different genetic algorithm techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjorgiev, Blaže; Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Multi-objective optimization of STI based on risk-informed decision making. ► Four different genetic algorithms (GAs) techniques are used as optimization tool. ► Advantages/disadvantages among the four different GAs applied are emphasized. - Abstract: The risk-informed decision making (RIDM) process, where insights gained from the probabilistic safety assessment are contemplated together with other engineering insights, is gaining an ever-increasing attention in the process industries. Increasing safety systems availability by applying RIDM is one of the prime goals for the authorities operating with nuclear power plants. Additionally, equipment ageing is gradually becoming a major concern in the process industries and especially in the nuclear industry, since more and more safety-related components are approaching or are already in their wear-out phase. A significant difficulty regarding the consideration of ageing effects on equipment (un)availability is the immense uncertainty the available equipment ageing data are associated to. This paper presents an approach for safety system unavailability reduction by optimizing the related test and maintenance schedule suggested by the technical specifications in the nuclear industry. Given the RIDM philosophy, two additional insights, i.e. ageing data uncertainty and test and maintenance costs, are considered along with unavailability insights gained from the probabilistic safety assessment for a selected standard safety system. In that sense, an approach for multi-objective optimization of the equipment surveillance test interval is proposed herein. Three different objective functions related to each one of the three different insights discussed above comprise the multi-objective nature of the optimization process. Genetic algorithm technique is utilized as an optimization tool. Four different types of genetic algorithms are utilized and consequently comparative analysis is conducted given the

  15. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  16. Abnormal decision-making in generalized anxiety disorder: Aversion of risk or stimulus-reinforcement impairment?

    OpenAIRE

    Teng, Cindy; Otero, Marcela; Geraci, Marilla; Blair, R.J.R.; Pine, Daniel S.; Grillon, Christian; Blair, Karina S.

    2016-01-01

    There is preliminary data indicating that patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) show impairment on decision-making tasks requiring the appropriate representation of reinforcement value. The current study aimed to extend this literature using the passive avoidance (PA) learning task, where the participant has to learn to respond to stimuli that engender reward and avoid responding to stimuli that engender punishment. Six stimuli engendering reward and six engendering punishment are ...

  17. Assigning a volcano alert level: negotiating uncertainty, risk, and complexity in decision-making processes

    OpenAIRE

    Carina J Fearnley

    2013-01-01

    A volcano alert level system (VALS) is used to communicate warning information from scientists to civil authorities managing volcanic hazards. This paper provides the first evaluation of how the decision-making process behind the assignation of an alert level, using forecasts of volcanic behaviour, operates in practice . Using interviews conducted from 2007 to 2009 at five USGS-managed (US Geological Survey) volcano observatories (Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley, and Yellowstone), two k...

  18. Preference and Utilities for Prostate Cancer Screening and Treatment: Assessment of the Underlying Decision Making Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

    2005-01-01

    ...) and associated health states (i.e., sexual impotence and urinary incontinence). In order to assess risk-attitude versus risk-perception two variables must be considered, the point of reference of the subject (i.e...

  19. Preferences and Utilities for Prostate Cancer Screening and Assessment of the Underlying Decision Making Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    ...) and associated health states (i.e., sexual impotence and urinary incontinence). In order to assess risk-attitude versus risk-perception two variables must be considered, the point of reference of the subject (i.e...

  20. Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

  1. Conceptual framework for potential implementations of multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods for design quality assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harputlugil, T.; Prins, M.; Tanju Gültekin, A.; Ilker Topçu, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Architectural design can be considered as a process influenced by many stakeholders, each of which has different decision power. Each stakeholder might have his/her own criteria and weightings depending on his/her own perspective and role. Hence design can be seen as a multi-criteria decision making

  2. Towards optimal decision making in personalized medicine : Potential value assessment of biomarkers in heart failure exemplars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Qi

    2016-01-01

    Treatment selection based on average effects observed in entire target population masks variation among patients (heterogeneity) and may result in less than optimal decision making. Personalized medicine is a new and complex concept, which aims to improve health by offering more tailored and

  3. Fuzzy Multi-actor Multi-criteria Decision Making for Sustainability Assessment of biomass-based technologies for hydrogen production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Fedele, Andrea; Mason, Marco

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a sustainability assessment method to rank the prior sequence of biomass-based technologies for hydrogen production. A novel fuzzy Multi-actor Multi-criteria Decision Making method which allows multiple groups of decision-makers to use linguistic variables...

  4. Using basic geographic information systems functionality to support sustainable forest management decision making and post-decision assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.

    2006-01-01

    Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...

  5. Assessing the Desired and Actual Levels of Teachers' Participation in Decision-Making in Secondary Schools of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bademo, Yismaw; Tefera, Bekalu Ferede

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the desired and actual levels of teachers' participation in decision-making process in Ethiopian secondary schools. For this, the study employed a cross-sectional survey design collecting data from sampled secondary school teachers (n = 258) found in Assosa Zone, Benishangual Gumuz Regional state, Ethiopia.…

  6. Supporting Valid Decision Making: Uses and Misuses of Assessment Data within the Context of RtI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Carrie R.; Christ, Theodore J.

    2012-01-01

    Within an RtI problem-solving context, assessment and decision making generally center around the tasks of problem identification, problem analysis, progress monitoring, and program evaluation. We use this framework to discuss the current state of the literature regarding curriculum based measurement, its technical properties, and its utility for…

  7. The Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool : a shared decision-making instrument that is predictive of healthcare costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten-vanMolken, Maureen P. H. M.; Goossens, Lucas M A; Boland, Melinde R. S.; Donkers, Bas; Jonker, Marcel F.; Slok, Annerika H. M.; Salome, Philippe L.; van Schayck, Constant; In 't Veen, Johannes C C M; Stolk, Elly A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool is an instrument that supports shared decision making between patients and physicians. It includes a coloured balloon diagram to visualize a patient’s scores on a questionnaire about the experienced burden of COPD and several objective severity

  8. Examining Data Driven Decision Making via Formative Assessment: A Confluence of Technology, Data Interpretation Heuristics and Curricular Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swan, Gerry; Mazur, Joan

    2011-01-01

    Although the term data-driven decision making (DDDM) is relatively new (Moss, 2007), the underlying concept of DDDM is not. For example, the practices of formative assessment and computer-managed instruction have historically involved the use of student performance data to guide what happens next in the instructional sequence (Morrison, Kemp, &…

  9. The Development and Validation of a Generic Instrument, QoDoS, for Assessing the Quality of Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donelan, Ronan; Walker, Stuart; Salek, Sam

    2016-01-01

    The impact of decision-making during the development and the regulatory review of medicines greatly influences the delivery of new medicinal products. Currently, there is no generic instrument that can be used to assess the quality of decision-making. This study describes the development of the Quality of Decision-Making Orientation Scheme QoDoS(©) instrument for appraising the quality of decision-making. Semi-structured interviews about decision-making were carried out with 29 senior decision makers from the pharmaceutical industry (10), regulatory authorities (9) and contract research organizations (10). The interviews offered a qualified understanding of the subjective decision-making approach, influences, behaviors and other factors that impact such processes for individuals and organizations involved in the delivery of new medicines. Thematic analysis of the transcribed interviews was carried out using NVivo8® software. Content validity was carried out using qualitative and quantitative data by an expert panel, which led to the developmental version of the QoDoS. Further psychometric evaluations were performed, including factor analysis, item reduction, reliability testing and construct validation. The thematic analysis of the interviews yielded a 94-item initial version of the QoDoS(©) with a 5-point Likert scale. The instrument was tested for content validity using a panel of experts for language clarity, completeness, relevance and scaling, resulting in a favorable agreement by panel members with an intra-class correlation coefficient value of 0.89 (95% confidence interval = 0.56, 0.99). A 76-item QoDoS(©) (version 2) emerged from content validation. Factor analysis produced a 47-item measure with four domains. The 47-item QoDoS(©) (version 3) showed high internal consistency (n = 120, Cronbach's alpha = 0.89), high reproducibility (n = 20, intra-class correlation = 0.77) and a mean completion time of 10 min. Reliability testing and construct

  10. Determining the psychometric properties of the Enhancing Decision-making Assessment in Midwifery (EDAM) measure in a cross cultural context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefford, Elaine; Jomeen, Julie; Martin, Colin R

    2016-04-28

    The ability to act on and justify clinical decisions as autonomous accountable midwifery practitioners, is encompassed within many international regulatory frameworks, yet decision-making within midwifery is poorly defined. Decision-making theories from medicine and nursing may have something to offer, but fail to take into consideration midwifery context and philosophy and the decisional autonomy of women. Using an underpinning qualitative methodology, a decision-making framework was developed, which identified Good Clinical Reasoning and Good Midwifery Practice as two conditions necessary to facilitate optimal midwifery decision-making during 2nd stage labour. This study aims to confirm the robustness of the framework and describe the development of Enhancing Decision-making Assessment in Midwifery (EDAM) as a measurement tool through testing of its factor structure, validity and reliability. A cross-sectional design for instrument development and a 2 (country; Australia/UK) x 2 (Decision-making; optimal/sub-optimal) between-subjects design for instrument evaluation using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency and known-groups validity. Two 'expert' maternity panels, based in Australia and the UK, comprising of 42 participants assessed 16 midwifery real care episode vignettes using the empirically derived 26 item framework. Each item was answered on a 5 point likert scale based on the level of agreement to which the participant felt each item was present in each of the vignettes. Participants were then asked to rate the overall decision-making (optimal/sub-optimal). Post factor analysis the framework was reduced to a 19 item EDAM measure, and confirmed as two distinct scales of 'Clinical Reasoning' (CR) and 'Midwifery Practice' (MP). The CR scale comprised of two subscales; 'the clinical reasoning process' and 'integration and intervention'. The MP scale also comprised two subscales; women's relationship with the midwife' and 'general

  11. Relative risk studies and their relevance to decision-making: the analytical approach in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, A.V.

    1982-01-01

    The risks associated with the generation of electricity using nuclear fuels, oil and coal are compared at the three stages of the electricity production process. Fuel extraction, public health effects and waste disposal risks are taken into consideration. Probabilities for a major catastrophic event are also calculated. The uncertainties of risk assessment at each stage are noted. The reasons for public prejudice against the evidence for the safety of nuclear power are discussed. (U.K.)

  12. Monitoring of human brain functions in risk decision-making task by diffuse optical tomography using voxel-wise general linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Marry; Liu, Hanli

    2013-03-01

    Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive imaging technique which measures the hemodynamic changes that reflect the brain activity. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), a variant of fNIRS with multi-channel NIRS measurements, has demonstrated capability of three dimensional (3D) reconstructions of hemodynamic changes due to the brain activity. Conventional method of DOT image analysis to define the brain activation is based upon the paired t-test between two different states, such as resting-state versus task-state. However, it has limitation because the selection of activation and post-activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM) based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with the risk-decision making process. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used in behavioral measures to assess human risk taking action and tendency while facing risks. We have utilized the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making. Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed on 18human participants (10 males and 8females).In this work, we wish to demonstrate the feasibility of using voxel-wise GLM analysis to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision making by DOT. Results have shown significant changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active choice mode and a different hemodynamic pattern between genders, which are in good agreements with published literatures in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies.

  13. Depression and Anxiety During Pregnancy: Evaluating the Literature in Support of Clinical Risk-Benefit Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalke, Katharine Baratz; Wenzel, Amy; Kim, Deborah R

    2016-06-01

    Depression and anxiety during pregnancy are common, and patients and providers are faced with complex decisions regarding various treatment modalities. A structured discussion of the risks and benefits of options with the patient and her support team is recommended to facilitate the decision-making process. This clinically focused review, with emphasis on the last 3 years of published study data, evaluates the major risk categories of medication treatments, namely pregnancy loss, physical malformations, growth impairment, behavioral teratogenicity, and neonatal toxicity. Nonpharmacological treatment options, including neuromodulation and psychotherapy, are also briefly reviewed. Specific recommendations, drawn from the literature and the authors' clinical experience, are also offered to help guide the clinician in decision-making.

  14. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

    OpenAIRE

    Bond Lyndal; Nolan Terry

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding o...

  15. Consideration of uncertainties in CCDF risk curves in safety oriented decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, E.; Tadmor, J.

    1988-01-01

    In recent years, some of the results of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (i.e. the magnitudes of the various adverse health effects and other effects of potential accidents in nuclear power plants) have usually been presented in Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function curves, widely known as CCDF risk curves. CCDF curves are characteristic of probabilistic accident analyses and consequence calculations, although, in many cases, the codes producing the CCDF curves consist of a mixture of both probabilistic and deterministic calculations. One of the main difficulties in the process of PRA is the problem of uncertainties associated with the risk assessments. The uncertainties, as expressed in CCDF risk curves can be classified into two main categories: (a) uncertainties expressed by the CCDF risk curve itself due to its probabilistic nature and - (b) the uncertainty band of CCDF risk curves. The band consists of a ''family of CCDF curves'' which represents the risks (e.g. early/late fatalities) evaluated at various levels of confidence for a specific Plant-Site Combination (PSC) i.e. a certain nuclear power plant located at a certain site. The reasons why a family of curves rather than a single curve represents the risk of a certain PSC have been discussed. Generally, the uncertainty band of CCDF curves is limited by the 95% (''conservative'') and the 5% curves. In most cases the 50% (median, ''best estimate'') curve is also shown because scientists tend to believe that it represents the ''realistic'' (or real) risk of the plant

  16. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behav...

  17. Levels of uncertainty, decision making and risk communication: the siting of nuclear waste in France and the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poumadere, M.

    1999-01-01

    The social demand for increased risk control is considered here as it applies to nuclear waste management. Britain's Sellafield Repository Project and France's Mediation Mission to site underground research laboratories are compared. While both management approaches show evolution away from an authoritarian model of decision making and towards implementation of a more socially responsive model, distinct methods of dealing with scientific and social uncertainty appear as well. (author)

  18. Levels of uncertainty, decision making and risk communication: the siting of nuclear waste in France and the United Kingdom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poumadere, M

    1999-11-01

    The social demand for increased risk control is considered here as it applies to nuclear waste management. Britain`s Sellafield Repository Project and France`s Mediation Mission to site underground research laboratories are compared. While both management approaches show evolution away from an authoritarian model of decision making and towards implementation of a more socially responsive model, distinct methods of dealing with scientific and social uncertainty appear as well. (author)

  19. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  20. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Gilbert

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, quality of healthcare that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 mo. and aged (23-25 mo. male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (1 food pellet and a large but uncertain reward (2 food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100% to 0%. Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the smaller but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for costs (i.e., delay, probability. These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct neural mechanisms that can impact cost

  1. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

    2011-01-01

    Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

  2. A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

    2016-04-01

    A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  3. Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa

    2011-01-01

    In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...

  4. Assessing the preconditions for communication influence on decision making: the North American Quitline Consortium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonito, Joseph A; Ruppel, Erin K; Saul, Jessie E; Leischow, Scott J

    2013-01-01

    The network of North American quitlines is a loose confederation of telephone-based smoking cessation professionals, including smoking cessation counseling providers, funders, researcher and policy advocates. Each quitline has some leeway in the types of services it provides, and the purpose of this article is to identify factors that explain such choices. Representatives from quitline organizations responded to a survey regarding the importance of several items that were hypothesized to influence general intentions to adopt and implement new cessation methods. Results indicate that internal (to the quitline) constraints are positively associated with consensus processes and that implementation of practices in general was more likely if consensus processes were used. Unilateral decision making (one person within an organization makes decisions for the quitline on his/her own) was unrelated to either internal or external constraints and was negatively associated with adoption of quitline practices. Discussion focuses on factors that influence consensus decision-making processes beyond those investigated in the article.

  5. Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning — the “jumping to conclusion” bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). Methods We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. Results We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Limitations Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not pre-psychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. Conclusion As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk. PMID:25622039

  6. A Decision-Making Model of Social Shopping in Franchising: Assessing Collaboration Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    In Lee; Choong-Kwon Lee; Sangjin Yoo; Moo-Jin Choi

    2015-01-01

    Our paper develops a decision-making model of social shopping in franchising to understand impacts of various collaboration strategies on profits of a social intermediary, a franchisor, and a franchisee. Three decision variables are considered to make a daily deal promotion in a manner that results in optimal profits: the social intermediary's advertising expense, the franchisee's service quality expense, and the franchisor's financial assistance to the franchisee. The analysis shows that whi...

  7. Horses for courses: risk information and decision making in the regulation of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Kandlikar, Milind

    2011-01-01

    Despite the widespread commercial use of nanomaterials, regulators currently have a limited ability to characterize and manage risks. There is a paucity of data available on the current production and use of nanomaterials and extreme scientific uncertainty on most aspects of the risk assessment “causal chain.” Regulatory decisions will need to be made in the near-term in the absence formal quantitative risk assessments. The article draws on examples from three different regulatory contexts—baseline data monitoring efforts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Department of Toxic Substances Control, prioritization of risk information in the context of environmental releases, and mitigation of occupational risks—to argue for the use of decision-analytic tools in lieu of formal risk assessment to help regulatory bodies. We advocate a “horses for courses” approach whereby existing analytical tools (such as risk ranking, multi-criteria decision analysis, and “control banding” approaches) might be adapted to regulators’ goals in particular decision contexts. While efforts to build new and modify existing tools are underway, they need greater support from funding and regulatory agencies because innovative approaches are needed for the “extreme” uncertainty problems that nanomaterials pose.

  8. Safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise based on the relative entropy aggregation in group decision making model.

    Science.gov (United S