WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment case

  1. Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turner Joanne

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quantification of uncertainty and variability is a key component of quantitative risk analysis. Recent advances in Bayesian statistics make it ideal for integrating multiple sources of information, of different types and quality, and providing a realistic estimate of the combined uncertainty in the final risk estimates. Methods We present two case studies related to foodborne microbial risks. In the first, we combine models to describe the sequence of events resulting in illness from consumption of milk contaminated with VTEC O157. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainty in some of the inputs to computer models describing the farm and pasteurisation process. Resulting simulated contamination levels were then assigned to consumption events from a dietary survey. Finally we accounted for uncertainty in the dose-response relationship and uncertainty due to limited incidence data to derive uncertainty about yearly incidences of illness in young children. Options for altering the risk were considered by running the model with different hypothetical policy-driven exposure scenarios. In the second case study we illustrate an efficient Bayesian sensitivity analysis for identifying the most important parameters of a complex computer code that simulated VTEC O157 prevalence within a managed dairy herd. This was carried out in 2 stages, first to screen out the unimportant inputs, then to perform a more detailed analysis on the remaining inputs. The method works by building a Bayesian statistical approximation to the computer code using a number of known code input/output pairs (training runs. Results We estimated that the expected total number of children aged 1.5-4.5 who become ill due to VTEC O157 in milk is 8.6 per year, with 95% uncertainty interval (0,11.5. The most extreme policy we considered was banning on-farm pasteurisation of milk, which reduced the estimate to 6.4 with 95% interval (0,11. In the second

  2. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  3. Environmental risk assessment of ivermectin: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebig, Markus; Fernandez, Alvaro Alonso; Blübaum-Gronau, Elke; Boxall, Alistair; Brinke, Marvin; Carbonell, Gregoria; Egeler, Philipp; Fenner, Kathrin; Fernandez, Carlos; Fink, Guido; Garric, Jeanne; Halling-Sørensen, Bent; Knacker, Thomas; Krogh, Kristine A; Küster, Anette; Löffler, Dirk; Cots, Miguel Angel Porcel; Pope, Louise; Prasse, Carsten; Römbke, Jörg; Rönnefahrt, Ines; Schneider, Manuel K; Schweitzer, Natascha; Tarazona, José V; Ternes, Thomas A; Traunspurger, Walter; Wehrhan, Anne; Duis, Karen

    2010-07-01

    The veterinary parasiticide ivermectin was selected as a case study compound within the project ERAPharm (Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals). Based on experimental data generated within ERAPharm and additional literature data, an environmental risk assessment (ERA) was performed mainly according to international and European guidelines. For the environmental compartments surface water, sediment, and dung, a risk was indicated at all levels of the tiered assessment approach. Only for soil was no risk indicated after the lower tier assessment. However, the use of effects data from additional 2-species and multispecies studies resulted in a risk indication for collembolans. Although previously performed ERAs for ivermectin revealed no concern for the aquatic compartment, and transient effects on dung-insect populations were not considered as relevant, the present ERA clearly demonstrates unacceptable risks for all investigated environmental compartments and hence suggests the necessity of reassessing ivermectin-containing products. Based on this case study, several gaps in the existing guidelines for ERA of pharmaceuticals were shown and improvements have been suggested. The action limit at the start of the ERA, for example, is not protective for substances such as ivermectin when used on intensively reared animals. Furthermore, initial predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of ivermectin in soil were estimated to be lower than refined PECs, indicating that the currently used tiered approach for exposure assessment is not appropriate for substances with potential for accumulation in soil. In addition, guidance is lacking for the assessment of effects at higher tiers of the ERA, e.g., for field studies or a tiered effects assessment in the dung compartment.

  4. Assessing fluvial flood risk in urban environments: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longo Elisa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, floods are among the most impactful calamities regarding costs. Looking at the natural hazards damage data collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT, it is observable a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated costs. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed.To deal with the aforementioned rise of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for example, the Flood Directive 2007/60/EC. The main goals of this research are the estimation of flood damages using the KULTURisk methodology and the comparing of the projected costs with the observed one. The case study is the 2002 flood in Eilenburg. According to KULTURisk methodology, two major classes of data are considered to evaluate flood risk damage: hydraulic data as regards Hazard and economic information to assess Exposure and Vulnerability This study shows the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts.

  5. Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

    2014-05-01

    All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK

  6. Wetlands in the ecological risk assessment process: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saban, L.B. [Roy F. Weston, Inc., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    In the past few years, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process as outlined in the EPA document Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment has been successfully used to assess risk to birds, mammals, aquatic organisms, plants, and to a limited extent, reptiles and amphibians, but has only recently been applied to wetlands. Due to the unique role that wetlands play in the environment as sources and sinks for nutrients, sediment retention, high productivity, habitat transition zones, aquifer recharge, high diversity and richness of biota, and aesthetic value, it is important to consider the entire wetland system in the ERA process. Because nearly sixty percent of Superfund sites are located in or near wetlands, a comprehensive approach is proposed to evaluate potential risks to flora and fauna in these wetland environments. Using the delineation and functional assessment techniques developed by wetland scientists, an estuarine wetland in western Washington was evaluated within the scope of ERA`S. The ERA was applied to the wetland using functional assessments as an integral part of the problem formulation phase of the risk assessment process. Applying the ERA process to wetlands enhances the functional assessment process and helps to define critical elements to evaluate within wetland systems. The results of this risk assessment help to define patches within a landscape that are potentially at risk and how to prioritize remedial actions.

  7. Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -- A Case Study in Turkey

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Can Elmar BALAS; Levent KOC

    2002-01-01

    In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ) method and the Conditional ExpectationMonte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of theDalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station arehindcasted by use of muhi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms.The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. In the new approach, for each randomlygenerated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading conditionand the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters inshort CPU durations of portable computers.

  8. ASSESSMENT OF BANKING ASSETS ON FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT - ALBANIAN CASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADRIATIK KOTORRI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Recognizing the asset value dynamics volatility of the financial institutions and the importance of its recognition both for financial reporting purposes and risk management effect, this paper aims to provide a practical model for the assets and financial institutions evaluation especially banks. It also aims to present a model to measure the value of banking assets for the purposes of risk management as an opportunity to identify in an early moment the banking risks. The paper develops the bank assets assessment forms and the basis of mathematical modeling of this assessment in general. He identifies also the evaluation factors as for example time to maturity, interest rate market for the assets (YTM, the interest rate agreed, the early repayment of the loan, interest ceilings and floors, off-balance sheet treatment, etc..

  9. Assessing Landscape Ecological Risk in a Mining City: A Case Study in Liaoyuan City, China

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Landscape ecological risk assessment can effectively identify key elements for landscape sustainability, which directly improves human wellbeing. However, previous research has tended to apply risk probability, measured by overlaying landscape metrics to evaluate risk, generally lacking a quantitative assessment of loss and uncertainty of risk. This study, taking Liaoyuan City as a case area, explores landscape ecological risk assessment associated with mining cities, based on probability of ...

  10. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for flood risk: the case of Sihl river in Zurich

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Buchecker, Matthias; Marcomini, Antonio

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it is necessary to develop effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the risk of floods. In light of the recent European Flood Directive (FD), the KULTURisk-FP7 Project developed a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology for assessing the risk imposed by floods events. The KULTURisk RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is a flexible that can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale) that integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific geophysical and socio-economic indicators (exposure and vulnerability factors such as land cover, slope, soil permeability, population density, economic activities, etc.). The main outputs of the methodology are GIS-based risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot

  11. Strategic risk assessment: A case study of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beer, T. [CSIRO, Mordialloc, Victoria (Australia). Div. of Atmospheric Research

    1996-12-31

    The philosophical basis for the on-going international and Australian action on climate change is the precautionary principle. The version of this relevant to Australia is that agreed to by the Australian States and by the Commonwealth of Australia as expressed in the Inter-Governmental Agreement on the Environment (IGAE). This study addresses the following questions: 1. What form of assessment of the risk-weighted consequences of climate change has been undertaken, as required under the precautionary principle? This paper claims that the IPCC process constitutes the risk-weighted assessment that is needed to justify the use of the precautionary principle. 2. Reducing the risk due to climate change requires actions on the basis of some combination of environmental integrity, equity, and economic efficiency as measured by cost-benefit analysis. Is the concept of intergenerational equity consistent with cost-benefit analysis? This paper claims that the problems of valuation over future time-scales, which may range from decades to centuries, make it difficult to apply cost-benefit analysis to the problem.

  12. Site-Specific ecological risk assessment. Case-study 2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, John

    “Development of a decision support system for sustainable management of contaminated land by linking bioavailability, ecological risk and ground water pollution of organic pollutants”or in short “LIBERATION”. The presentation includes examples on how to scale and integrate the results from various scientific......The decision supporting and integrating assessment tool, TRIAD, is used site-specific on PAH- and heavy metal contaminated sites in Denmark. The various aspects of the TRIAD approach are used on a set of chemistry-, ecotoxicology- and ecology related data collected among others in the EU project...

  13. Mixture risk assessment: a case study of Monsanto experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, R S; Dudek, B R; Grothe, D R; Johannsen, F R; Lamb, I C; Martens, M A; Sherman, J H; Stevens, M W

    1996-01-01

    Monsanto employs several pragmatic approaches for evaluating the toxicity of mixtures. These approaches are similar to those recommended by many national and international agencies. When conducting hazard and risk assessments, priority is always given to using data collected directly on the mixture of concern. To provide an example of the first tier of evaluation, actual data on acute respiratory irritation studies on mixtures were evaluated to determine whether the principle of additivity was applicable to the mixture evaluated. If actual data on the mixture are unavailable, extrapolation across similar mixtures is considered. Because many formulations are quite similar in composition, the toxicity data from one mixture can be extended to a closely related mixture in a scientifically justifiable manner. An example of a family of products where such extrapolations have been made is presented to exemplify this second approach. Lastly, if data on similar mixtures are unavailable, data on component fractions are used to predict the toxicity of the mixture. In this third approach, process knowledge and scientific judgement are used to determine how the known toxicological properties of the individual fractions affect toxicity of the mixture. Three examples of plant effluents where toxicological data on fractions were used to predict the toxicity of the mixture are discussed. The results of the analysis are used to discuss the predictive value of each of the above mentioned toxicological approaches for evaluating chemical mixtures.

  14. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  15. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  16. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  17. Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Islam, M.A.

    2015-01-01

      Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of the risk/benefit

  18. Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Islam, M.A.

    2015-01-01

      Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of the risk/benefit as

  19. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  20. Assessing Landscape Ecological Risk in a Mining City: A Case Study in Liaoyuan City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Peng

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Landscape ecological risk assessment can effectively identify key elements for landscape sustainability, which directly improves human wellbeing. However, previous research has tended to apply risk probability, measured by overlaying landscape metrics to evaluate risk, generally lacking a quantitative assessment of loss and uncertainty of risk. This study, taking Liaoyuan City as a case area, explores landscape ecological risk assessment associated with mining cities, based on probability of risk and potential ecological loss. The assessment results show landscape ecological risk is lower in highly urbanized areas than those rural areas, suggesting that not only cities but also natural and semi-natural areas contribute to overall landscape-scale ecological risk. Our comparison of potential ecological risk in 58 watersheds in the region shows that ecological loss are moderate or high in the 10 high-risk watersheds. The 35 moderate-risk watersheds contain a large proportion of farmland, and the 13 low-risk watersheds are mainly distributed in flat terrain areas. Our uncertainty analyses result in a close range between simulated and calculated values, suggesting that our model is generally applicable. Our analysis has good potential in the fields of resource development, landscape planning and ecological restoration, and provides a quantitative method for achieving landscape sustainability in a mining city.

  1. Risk assessment of oil and gas well drilling activities in Iran - a case study: human factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amir-Heidari, Payam; Farahani, Hadi; Ebrahemzadih, Mehrzad

    2015-01-01

    Oil and gas well drilling activities are associated with numerous hazards which have the potential to cause injury or harm for people, property and the environment. These hazards are also a threat for the reputation of drilling companies. To prevent accidents and undesired events in drilling operations it is essential to identify, evaluate, assess and control the attendant risks. In this work, a structured methodology is proposed for risk assessment of drilling activities. A case study is performed to identify, analyze and assess the risks arising from human factors in one of the on shore drilling sites in southern Iran. A total of 17 major hazards were identified and analyzed using the proposed methodology. The results showed that the residual risks of 100% of these hazards were in the acceptable or transitional zone, and their levels were expected to be lowered further by proper controls. This structured methodology may also be used in other drilling sites and companies for assessing the risks.

  2. Case-by-case risk assessment of broiler meat batches: An effective control strategy for Campylobacter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bjarke Bak; Nauta, Maarten; Korsgaard, Helle;

    2013-01-01

    In 2006, the Danish government decided to take new measures to control Salmonella and Campylobacter in Danish and imported retail meat. The legal basis for these new measures was article 14 in the EU food law, which states that food shall not be placed on the market if it is unsafe, among others...... and the results of more than 3,000 batches of broiler meat tested since 2007. The risk was assessed for batches with one or more samples positive for Campylobacter (>100 cfu/g). Reductions in the number of positive batches from 2007 to 2010 were observed for both domestic (from 17% to 7%, p=0.01) and imported......, for reasons of contamination. This provision allows each member state to make a specific risk assessment of food batches, and decide whether a batch poses an unacceptable risk to the consumer or not. Here we present the basis for the risk assessment model on Campylobacter used in this new approach...

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment of emerging materials: case study of titanium dioxide nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Michael P; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Koivisto, Antti Joonas; Jensen, Alexander Christian Østerskov; Jensen, Keld Alstrup; Pang, Chengfang; Marcomini, Antonio; Sonnemann, Guido

    2017-05-01

    The development and use of emerging technologies such as nanomaterials can provide both benefits and risks to society. Emerging materials may promise to bring many technological advantages but may not be well characterized in terms of their production volumes, magnitude of emissions, behaviour in the environment and effects on living organisms. This uncertainty can present challenges to scientists developing these materials and persons responsible for defining and measuring their adverse impacts. Human health risk assessment is a method of identifying the intrinsic hazard of and quantifying the dose-response relationship and exposure to a chemical, to finally determine the estimation of risk. Commonly applied deterministic approaches may not sufficiently estimate and communicate the likelihood of risks from emerging technologies whose uncertainty is large. Probabilistic approaches allow for parameters in the risk assessment process to be defined by distributions instead of single deterministic values whose uncertainty could undermine the value of the assessment. A probabilistic approach was applied to the dose-response and exposure assessment of a case study involving the production of nanoparticles of titanium dioxide in seven different exposure scenarios. Only one exposure scenario showed a statistically significant level of risk. In the latter case, this involved dumping high volumes of nano-TiO2 powders into an open vessel with no personal protection equipment. The probabilistic approach not only provided the likelihood of but also the major contributing factors to the estimated risk (e.g. emission potential).

  4. Risk assessment by client and case manager for shared decision making in outpatient forensic psychiatry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brink, Rob H. S.; Troquete, Nadine A. C.; Beintema, Harry; Mulder, Tamara; van Os, Titus W. D. P.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wiersma, Durk

    2015-01-01

    Background: In outpatient forensic psychiatry, assessment of re-offending risk and treatment needs by case managers may be hampered by an incomplete view of client functioning. The client's appreciation of his own problem behaviour is not systematically used for these purposes. The current study tes

  5. Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

  6. Risk assessment of urban soils contamination: The particular case of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cachada, A; da Silva, E Ferreira; Duarte, A C; Pereira, R

    2016-05-01

    The assessment of soil quality and characterization of potential risks to the environment and human health can be a very difficult task due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the matrix, the poor understanding about the fate of contaminants in the soil matrix, scarcity of toxicological/ecotoxicological data and variability of guidelines. In urban soils these difficulties are enhanced by the patchy nature of urban areas and the presence of complex mixtures of organic and inorganic contaminants resulting from diffuse pollution caused by urban activities (e.g. traffic, industrial activity, and burning of carbon sources for heating). Yet, several tools are available which may help to assess the risks of soil contamination in a simpler, cost effective and reliable way. Within these tools, a tiered risk assessment (RA) approach, first based on a chemical screening in combination with geostatistical tools, may be very useful in urban areas. However, there is still much to improve and a long way to go in order to obtain a reliable RA, especially in the case of hydrophobic organic compounds such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This paper aims at proposing a RA framework to assess the environmental and human health risks of PAHs present in urban soils, based on existing models. In addition, a review on ecotoxicological, toxicological, and exposure assessment data was made, as well as of the existing soil quality guidelines for PAHs that can be used in the RA process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  8. Risk assessment for healthcare workers after a sentinel case of rabies and review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Virginia L; Joyce, Patrick; Benator, Debra; Agnes, Kathleen; Gill, Janet; Irmler, Monica; Clark, Arlene; Giannakos, George; Gabourel, Audrey; Gordin, Fred M

    2015-02-01

    After a case of rabies, healthcare workers (HCWs) had fear of contagion from the infected patient. Although transmission of rabies to HCWs has never been documented, high-risk exposures theoretically include direct contact of broken skin and/or mucosa with saliva, tears, oropharyngeal secretions, cerebrospinal fluid, and neural tissue. Urine/kidney exposure posed a concern, as our patient's renal transplant was identified as the infection source. Our risk assessment included (1) identification of exposed HCWs; (2) notification of HCWs; (3) risk assessment using a tool from the local health department; (4) supplemental screening for urine/kidney exposure; and (5) postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) when indicated. A total of 222 HCWs including diverse hospital staff and medical trainees from university affiliates were evaluated. Risk screening was initiated within 2 hours of rabies confirmation, and 95% of HCWs were assessed within the first 8 days. There were 8 high-risk exposures related to broken skin contact or mucosal splash with the patient's secretions, and 1 person without high-risk contact sought and received PEP outside our hospital. Nine HCWs (4%) received PEP with good tolerance. Due to fear of rabies transmission, additional HCWs without direct patient contact required counseling. There have been no secondary cases after our sentinel rabies patient. Rabies exposure represents a major concern for HCWs and requires rapid, comprehensive risk screening and counseling of staff and timely PEP. Given the lack of human-to-human rabies transmission from our own experience and the literature, a conservative approach seems appropriate for providing PEP to HCWs. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  9. Risk Analysis and Assessment of Overtopping Concerning Sea Dikes in the Case of Storm Surge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王莉萍; 黄桂玲; 陈正寿; 梁丙臣; 刘桂林

    2014-01-01

    Risk-analysis-and-assessment-relating-coastal-structures-has-been-one-of-the-hot-topics-in-the-area-of-coastal-protection-recently.-In-this-paper,-from-three-aspects-of-joint-return-period-of-multiple-loads,-dike-failure-rate-and-dike-continuous-risk-prevention-respectively,-three-new-risk-analysis-methods-concerning-overtopping-of-sea-dikes-are-developed.-It-is-worth-noting-that-the-factors-of-storm-surge-which-leads-to-overtopping-are-also-considered-in-the-three-methods.-In-order-to-verify-and-estimate-the-effectiveness-and-reliability-of-the-newly-developed-methods,-quantified-mutual-information-is-adopted.-By-means-of-case-testing,-it-can-be-found-that-different-prior-variables-might-be-selected-dividedly,-according-to-the-requirement-of-special-engineering-application-or-the-dominance-of-loads.-Based-on-the-selection-of-prior-variables,-the-correlating-risk-analysis-method-can-be-successfully-applied-to-practical-engineering.

  10. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  11. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  12. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  13. Avalanche risk assessment for mountain roads - a comparison of case studies from Iceland and the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wastl, M.; Stötter, J.

    2009-04-01

    While the management of alpine natural hazards in settlements follows highly developed operational standardised procedures in many countries, there are very few approaches for a systematic survey and assessment of these natural hazard processes and the related risks and for a sustainable planning of measures for roads. This is even more surprising against the background of the ongoing increase of traffic in Europe and its economic importance. This contribution compares the results of a regional scale assessment of the avalanche risk on mountain roads for case studies from Austria, Italy and Iceland. It provides the first assessment of the natural hazard situation for roads outside closed settlements in Iceland and discusses the applicability of regional scale risk based approaches developed in the Alps to the specific natural, economic and social situation. It also compares the role of risk in the assessment and management of natural hazards in these countries. The assessment of the risk by natural hazard processes for roads follows approaches developed by Wilhelm (1997, 1998, 1999) and Borter (1999a, 1999b) in the Alps adapted to comply with the data availability of the regional scale. These approaches distinguish between the individual risk on the one hand and the collective risk for the society on the other hand for each process area as well as the cumulative risk for the investigated road section. As the spatial and temporal distribution of avalanches is relatively well documented in some of the Alpine countries practical approaches have been developed for the assessment of this natural hazard process. These have been successfully applied e.g. to roads in inner Oetz and inner Stubai Valley, Tyrol, Austria by Huttenlau (2004) and Gufler (2007) and Sulden road, Ortles Alps, Southern Tyrol, Italy by Zischg et al. (2004). On the basis of these investigations the individual, collective and cumulative death risk for avalanches was determined for Siglufjar

  14. Significance of genetic information in risk assessment and individual classification using silicosis as a case model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCanlies, E.; Landsittel, D.P.; Yucesoy, B.; Vallyathan, V.; Luster, M.L.; Sharp, D.S. [NIOSH, Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Over the last decade the role of genetic data in epidemiological research has expanded considerably. The authors recently published a case-control study that evaluated the interaction between silica exposure and minor variants in the genes coding for interleukin-1alpha. (IL-1alpha), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) as risk factors associated with silicosis, a fibrotic lung disease. In contrast, this report uses data generated from these studies to illustrate the utility of genetic information for the purposes of risk assessment and clinical prediction. Specifically, this study addresses how, given a known exposure, genetic information affects the characterization of risk groups. Relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves were then used to determine the impact of genetic information on individual classification. Logistic regression modeling procedures were used to estimate the predicted probability of developing silicosis. This probability was then used to construct predicted risk deciles, first for a model with occupational exposure only and then for a model containing occupational exposure and genetic main effects and interactions. The results indicate that genetic information plays a valuable role in effectively characterizing risk groups and mechanisms of disease operating in a substantial proportion of the population. However, in the case of fibrotic lung disease caused by silica exposure, information about the presence or absence of the minor variants of IL-1alpha, IL-1RA and TNFalpha is unlikely to be a useful tool for individual classification.

  15. A novel risk assessment method for landfill slope failure: Case study application for Bhalswa Dumpsite, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanfar, Ali; Amirmojahedi, Mohsen; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward; Kumar, Dinesh

    2017-03-01

    Rapid population growth of major urban centres in many developing countries has created massive landfills with extraordinary heights and steep side-slopes, which are frequently surrounded by illegal low-income residential settlements developed too close to landfills. These extraordinary landfills are facing high risks of catastrophic failure with potentially large numbers of fatalities. This study presents a novel method for risk assessment of landfill slope failure, using probabilistic analysis of potential failure scenarios and associated fatalities. The conceptual framework of the method includes selecting appropriate statistical distributions for the municipal solid waste (MSW) material shear strength and rheological properties for potential failure scenario analysis. The MSW material properties for a given scenario is then used to analyse the probability of slope failure and the resulting run-out length to calculate the potential risk of fatalities. In comparison with existing methods, which are solely based on the probability of slope failure, this method provides a more accurate estimate of the risk of fatalities associated with a given landfill slope failure. The application of the new risk assessment method is demonstrated with a case study for a landfill located within a heavily populated area of New Delhi, India.

  16. Flood hazard and flood risk assessment at the local spatial scale: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matej Vojtek

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available With regard to minimizing flood damage, there are measures of different character each of which has its justification and plays an important role in flood protection. Implementation of traditional flood protection measures is still very important; however, an increasing role should be played particularly by flood prevention and flood risk management. The paper presents a case study on flood hazard and flood risk assessment at the local spatial scale using geographic information systems, remote sensing, and hydraulic modelling. As for determining flood hazard in the model area, which has 3.23 km2, the estimation of maximum flood discharges and hydraulic modelling were important steps. The results of one-dimensional hydraulic modelling, which are water depth and flow velocity rasters, were the basis for determining flood hazard and flood risk. In order to define flood risk, the following steps were applied: determining flood intensity on the basis of water depth and flow velocity rasters, determining flood hazard using three categories (low, medium, and high based on flood intensity, defining vulnerability for the classes of functional areas using three categories of acceptable risk (low, medium, and high, and lastly determination of flood risk which represents a synthesis of flood hazard and vulnerability of the model area.

  17. Delayed geochemical hazard: a tool for risk assessment of heavy metal polluted sites and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mingxia; Feng, Liu; He, Juanni; Chen, Ming; Zhang, Jiawen; Zhang, Minying; Wang, Jing

    2015-04-28

    A concept of delayed geochemical hazard (DGH) was proposed instead of chemical time bomb to represent an ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and release of long-term accumulated pollutants in soil/sediment system due to the change of physicochemical conditions or the decrease of environmental capacity. A DGH model was also established to provide a quantitative tool to assess and predict potential environmental risk caused by heavy metals and especially its dynamic evolutions. A case study of DGH was carried out for a mercury-polluted area in southern China. Results of soil column experiment showed that DGH was directly resulted from the transformation and release of pollutant from the releasable species to the active ones through a mechanism of chain reaction. The most possible chain reaction was summarized as HgE+C+F+O+R→HgE+C+F+O→HgE+C+F→HgE+C→HgE. Although 8.3% of the studied area with the total releasable content of mercury (TRCPHg) exceeded the DGH critical point value of 16.667mg/kg, with the possibility of DGH burst, the area was classified as low-risk of DGH. This confirmed that DGH model could contribute to the risk assessment and early warning of soil/sediment pollution.

  18. On-line Meteorology-Chemistry/Aerosols Modelling and Integration for Risk Assessment: Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostanbekov, Kairat; Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Zakarin, Edige; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    On regional level, and especially in areas with potential diverse sources of industrial pollutants, the risk assessment of impact on environment and population is critically important. During normal operations, the risk is minimal. However, during accidental situations, the risk is increased due to releases of harmful pollutants into different environments such as water, soil, and atmosphere where it is following processes of continuous transformation and transport. In this study, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment High Resolution Limited Area Model) was adapted and employed for assessment of scenarios with accidental and continuous emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) for selected case studies during January of 2010. The following scenarios were considered: (i) control reference run; (ii) accidental release (due to short-term 1 day fire at oil storage facility) occurred at city of Atyrau (Kazakhstan) near the northern part of the Caspian Sea; and (iii) doubling of original continuous emissions from three locations of metallurgical enterprises on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). The implemented aerosol microphysics module M7 uses 5 types - sulphates, sea salt, dust, black and organic carbon; as well as distributed in 7 size modes. Removal processes of aerosols include gravitational settling and wet deposition. As the Enviro-HIRLAM model is the on-line integrated model, both meteorological and chemical processes are simultaneously modelled at each time step. The modelled spatio-temporal variations for meteorological and chemical patterns are analyzed for both European and Kazakhstan regions domains. The results of evaluation of sulphur dioxide concentration and deposition on main populated cities, selected regions, countries are presented employing GIS tools. As outcome, the results of Enviro-HIRLAM modelling for accidental release near the Caspian Sea are integrated into the RANDOM (Risk Assessment of Nature Detriment due to Oil spill Migration) system.

  19. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  20. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, Rianne, E-mail: rianne.jacobs@wur.nl; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter [Wageningen University and Research Centre, Biometris (Netherlands)

    2015-06-15

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  1. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; ter Braak, Cajo J. F.

    2015-06-01

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  2. Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on dietary interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, H.; Andersen, R.; Antoine, J.-M.; Finglas, P.; Hoekstra, J.; Kardinaal, A.; Nordmann, H.; Pekcan, G.; Pentieva, K.; Sanders, T.A.; Berg, H. van den; Kranen, H. van; Chiodini, A.

    2012-01-01

    The respective examples, described in this paper, illustrate how the BRAFO-tiered approach, on benefit-risk assessment, can be tested on a wide range of case studies. Various results were provided, ranging from a quick stop as the result of non-genuine benefit-risk questions to continuation through

  3. Using Statistical and Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjing Wu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The toxic chemical and heavy metals within wastewater can cause serious adverse impacts on human health. Health risk assessment (HRA is an effective tool for supporting decision-making and corrective actions in water quality management. HRA can also help people understand the water quality and quantify the adverse effects of pollutants on human health. Due to the imprecision of data, measurement error and limited available information, uncertainty is inevitable in the HRA process. The purpose of this study is to integrate statistical and probabilistic methods to deal with censored and limited numbers of input data to improve the reliability of the non-cancer HRA of dermal contact exposure to contaminated river water by considering uncertainty. A case study in the Kelligrews River in St. John’s, Canada, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and capacity of the proposed approach. Five heavy metals were selected to evaluate the risk level, including arsenic, molybdenum, zinc, uranium and manganese. The results showed that the probability of the total hazard index of dermal exposure exceeding 1 is very low, and there is no obvious evidence of risk in the study area.

  4. Case studies of geophysical imaging for road foundation design on soft soils and embankment risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteley, Robert J.; Kelly, Richard B.; Stewart, Simon B.

    2015-12-01

    Population growth along the coast of eastern Australia has increased demand for new and upgraded transport infrastructure within intervening coastal floodplains and steeper hinterland areas. This has created additional challenges for road foundation design. The floodplain areas in this region are underlain by considerable thicknesses of recently deposited alluvial and clayey marine sediments. If characterisation of these deposits is inadequate they can increase road construction costs and affect long-term road stability and serviceability. Case studies from a major coastal highway upgrade demonstrate how combining surface wave seismic and electrical geophysical imaging with conventional geotechnical testing enhances characterisation of these very soft and soft soils. The geophysical results also provide initial foundation design parameters such as void ratio and pre-consolidation pressure. A further significant risk issue for roads is potential embankment instability. This can occur during new road construction or when upgrades of existing embankments are required. Assessing the causes of instability of existing steeper embankments with drilling and probing is often difficult and costly due to access and safety problems. In these situations combinations of electrical, ground penetrating radar and P-wave seismic imaging technologies can rapidly provide information on the likely conditions below both the roadway and embankment. Case studies show the application of these technologies on two unstable road embankments. It is concluded that the application of both geophysical imaging and geotechnical testing is a cost-effective enhancement for site characterisation of soft soils and for risk assessment of potentially unstable embankments. This approach overcomes many of the current limitations of conventional methods of site investigation that provide point location data only. The incorporation of geophysics into a well crafted site investigation allows concentration on

  5. Spatial Approach of Climate Risk Assessment and Uncertainty: A Case Study of Heat Wave Risk in Seoul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.

    2016-12-01

    As climate change continuously reaches new climaxes, it is aggravating many climate extremes. Urban heat island effect (UHI) is one of them. It occurs in cities with sealed surfaces and building canyons, which make changes in storage, radiative and turbulent heat flux that make cities warmer than surrounding areas. However, applying adequate policies at the right place can attenuate the impacts of UHI. Therefore, heat wave risk assessment is important in the sense that it helps decision makers set priority in targets of application. Seoul is highly urbanized capital of South Korea. It is suffering from increasing heat wave days and tropical nights every year. More than 10 million residents are exposed to heat extremes and measures should be taken. Therefore, heat wave risk assessment of Seoul should be done in advance. While, risk assessment contains uncertainty; from variables to assessment procedure. However, there is no standardized assessment methodology. A fuzzy logic, introduced by Zadeh in 1965, is applied in quantifying these uncertainties. We fuzzified indices for assessing heat wave risk with threshold values. And indices were aggregated step by step with fuzzy operators, which make up "vulnerability" and "climate exposure". Vulnerability and climate exposure are further combined with fuzzy operator to derive complete heat wave risk assessment map. As a result, we expressed spatial distribution of UHI risk. Districts lying in the central area of the city showed higher risk than in marginal areas. In addition, hierarchic structured approach of assessing risk in this study makes it easy to track key variables of risk, therefore, giving decision makers insights to help their application of adaptation policies.

  6. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  7. Impacts of inorganic fluorides on terrestrial ecosystems: An ecological risk assessment case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kent, R.A.; Schneider, U.A.; Pawlisz, A.V. [Environment Canada, Hull, Quebec (Canada). Evaluation and Interpretation Branch

    1995-12-31

    In 1994, the national environmental assessment under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act concluded that concentrations of inorganic fluorides near industrial sources in Canada may cause long-term adverse effects in sensitive terrestrial plant and wildlife species. This case study examines the accumulation of inorganic fluorides in vegetation and subsequent effects on a sensitive herbivore species, the white tail deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on Cornwall Island, Ontario, near an aluminum smelting facility, Using environmental concentration data for air, water and food (vegetation), a Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the probability that multimedia exposure of inorganic fluorides exceeded known effects thresholds of skeletal and dental fluorosis in deer, and in turn quantify the magnitude of that risk. With daily intakes ranging from 2--324 {micro}g/deer/day, it was estimated that exposure to fluorides exceeds the daily intake threshold for fluorosis (55 {micro}g/deer/day) in 12% of the deer population. Seasonal differences in exposure and subsequent risk were noted. These results are also supported by additional field data on domestic cattle from the Cornwall Island area where effects (e.g., excessive teeth wear, delayed eruption of permanent teeth, osteosclerosis, osteonecrosis) have been reported and linked to high levels of fluorides in air, water, and forage. It is estimated that at least 10% of the deer from the Cornwall Island area may be subject to debilitating skeletal and dental fluorosis as a result of fluoride emissions from the adjacent aluminum smelter.

  8. The EFSA quantitative approach to pest risk assessment – methodological aspects and case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, G.; Schrader, G.; Grégoire, J.C.; MacLeod, A.; Mosbach-Schulz, O.; Rafoss, T.; Rossi, V.; Urek, G.; Werf, van der W.

    2017-01-01

    A new method for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of risk-reducing options is currently under development by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Plant Health Panel. The draft method has been tested on pests of concern to the European Union (EU). The method is adapt

  9. [Are near-death experiences following attempted suicide important for suicide risk assessment? A case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kralovec, Karl; Plöderl, Martin; Aistleiner, Ursula; Fartacek, Clemens; Fartacek, Reinhold

    2009-01-01

    We describe a 59-year old patient who reported a near-death experience following attempted suicide. The near-death experience induced reduction of suicidality. Previous studies suggested a high prevalence of near-death experiences following attempted suicide and that near-death experiences may decrease rather than increase subsequent suicide risk. Implications for suicide risk assessment are discussed.

  10. Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yafei; Liu, Mao

    2012-03-01

    With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use.

  11. Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-04-03

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  12. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems, taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  13. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

  14. Case-control assessment of diet and lung cancer risk in African Americans and Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, P C; Hursting, S D; Duphorne, C M; Jiang, H; Honn, S E; Chang, S; Spitz, M R

    1997-01-01

    In this case-control study we determined whether dietary differences underlie some of the ethnic and sex differences in US lung cancer rates. We examined the relationship between diet and lung cancer development in 137 lung cancer cases (93 African Americans and 44 Mexican Americans) and 187 controls (78 African Americans and 109 Mexican Americans). Cases reported a higher daily mean total fat intake (p fruits (p = 0.02). Ethnic differences in diet were also observed: Mexican Americans consumed less total fat (p fruits (p lung cancer risk (p fruit consumption and lung cancer risk (p = 0.05). In conclusion, our findings support the hypothesis that diet, particularly high fat consumption and low fruit and vegetable consumption, contributes (independent of cigarette smoking) to the excess lung cancer risk in African-American men, who have the highest lung cancer rates in the United States.

  15. Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallor, Fermín; García-Olaverri, Carmen; Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario; Mateo-Collazas, Pedro

    2008-08-01

    In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.

  16. Accidental exposure to UV radiation produced by germicidal lamp: case report and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaffina, Salvatore; Camisa, Vincenzo; Lembo, Marco; Vinci, Maria Rosaria; Tucci, Mario Graziano; Borra, Massimo; Napolitano, Antonio; Cannatà, Vittorio

    2012-01-01

    Ultraviolet radiation is known to cause both benefits and harmful effects on humans. The adverse effects mainly involve two target organs, skin and eye, and can be further divided into short- and long-term effects. The present case report describes an accidental exposure of two health-care workers to ultraviolet radiation produced by a germicidal lamp in a hospital pharmacy. The germicidal lamp presented a spectrum with an intense UV-C component as well as a modest UV-B contribution. Overexposure to UV-C radiation was over 100 times as large as the ICNIRP exposure limits. A few hours after the exposure, the two subjects reported symptoms of acute UV injury and both of them continued having significant clinical signs for over 2 years. In this study, we describe acute and potentially irreversible effects caused by high UV exposure. In addition, we present the results of risk assessment by occupational exposure to germicidal lamps. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Photochemistry and Photobiology © 2012 The American Society of Photobiology.

  17. Multi-hazard risk assessment using GIS in urban areas: a case study for the city of Turrialba, Costa Rica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westen, van Cees J.; Montoya, Lorena; Boerboom, Luc; Badilla Coto, Elena

    2002-01-01

    In the framework of the UNESCO sponsored project on “Capacity Building for Natural Disaster Reduction” a case study was carried out on multi-hazard risk assessment of the city of Turrialba, located in the central part of Costa Rica. The city with a population of 33,000 people is located in an area,

  18. Assessing the Risk of Re-Offending for Juvenile Offenders Using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtel, Kristin; Lowenkamp, Christopher T.; Latessa, Edward

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is to assess, classify, and assist agencies with developing treatment and service plans according to the offender's criminogenic risk factors. Given the limited research in the predictive validity for this instrument, the current study attempts to examine this issue on a…

  19. A Risk Assessment Matrix for Public Health Principles: The Case for E-Cigarettes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saitta, Daniela; Chowdhury, Azim; Ferro, Giancarlo Antonio; Nalis, Federico Giuseppe; Polosa, Riccardo

    2017-03-31

    Besides nicotine replacement therapies, a realistic alternative for smoking cessation or for smoking substitution may come from electronic cigarettes (ECs), whose popularity has been steadily growing. As for any emerging behaviour associated with exposure to inhalational agents, there is legitimate cause for concern and many health organizations and policy makers have pushed for restrictive policy measures ranging from complete bans to tight regulations of these products. Nonetheless, it is important to reframe these concerns in context of the well-known harm caused by cigarette smoking. In this article, we discuss key public health principles that should be considered when regulating ECs. These include the concept of tobacco harm reduction, importance of relative risk and risk continuum, renormalization of smoking, availability of low-risk product, proportionate taxation, and reassessment of the role of non-tobacco flavours. These public health principles may be systematically scrutinized using a risk assessment matrix that allows: (1) to determine the measure of certainty that a risk will occur; and (2) to estimate the impact of such a risk on public health. Consequently, the ultimate goal of responsible ECs regulation should be that of maximizing the favourable impact of these reduced-risk products whilst minimizing further any potential risks. Consumer perspectives, sound EC research, continuous post-marketing surveillance and reasonable safety and quality product standards should be at the very heart of future regulatory schemes that will address concerns while minimizing unintended consequences of ill-informed regulation.

  20. Risk assessment and stakeholder perceptions in novel biological control agent release: YST as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objectives of risk assessment are to learn about whether a candidate agent would be safe to use in the environment where release is planned, and to present such information in a clear, understandable format to regulators, stakeholders, and the public. Plant pathogens evaluated for biological co...

  1. Comparison of Risk Assessment Using HAZOP and ETBA Techniques: Case Study of a Gasoline Refinery Unit in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirazeh Arghami

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Prevention of accidents—a crucial requirement in oil industries—involves hazard recognition, risk assessment, and corrective actions. The purpose of this study was to compare the ETBA and HAZOP techniques for risk assessment in a gasoline refinery unit. Methods: In this case study, data were collected using process flow diagram, walking–talking through method, piping and instrumentation diagram, and direct observations. Worksheets for both techniques were filled on the basis of the risk assessment matrix MIL-STD-882E. Results: The HAZOP method identified 44 deviations attributable to 118 causes. In addition, 11.37% of the identified hazards were associated with unacceptable risk, and 36.36%, with unfavorable risk. The ETBA method detected 10 groups of energy (24 subgroups; 33 hazards were detected, 10.62% of which were associated with unacceptable risk. Conclusion: HAZOP proved to be the more powerful technique for the prediction and identification of hazards. However, ETBA detected certain hazards that were not identifiable using HAZOP. Therefore, a combination of these two methods is desirable for the assessment of hazard risk in process industries.

  2. Benefit-risk assessment in a post-market setting: a case study integrating real-life experience into benefit-risk methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgreen, Christine E; van den Ham, Hendrika A; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Ashworth, Simon; Hermann, Richard; Hobbiger, Steve; Luciani, Davide; Micaleff, Alain; Thomson, Andrew; Wang, Nan; van Staa, Tjeerd P; Downey, Gerald; Hirsch, Ian; Hockley, Kimberley; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Metcalf, Marilyn; Mwangi, Jeremiah; Nixon, Richard; Peters, Ruth; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Waddingham, Ed; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Ashby, Deborah; Wise, Lesley

    2014-09-01

    Difficulties may be encountered when undertaking a benefit-risk assessment for an older product with well-established use but with a benefit-risk balance that may have changed over time. This case study investigates this specific situation by applying a formal benefit-risk framework to assess the benefit-risk balance of warfarin for primary prevention of patients with atrial fibrillation. We used the qualitative framework BRAT as the starting point of the benefit-risk analysis, bringing together the relevant available evidence. We explored the use of a quantitative method (stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis) to demonstrate how uncertainties and preferences on multiple criteria can be integrated into a single measure to reduce cognitive burden and increase transparency in decision making. Our benefit-risk model found that warfarin is favourable compared with placebo for the primary prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. This favourable benefit-risk balance is fairly robust to differences in preferences. The probability of a favourable benefit-risk for warfarin against placebo is high (0.99) in our model despite the high uncertainty of randomised clinical trial data. In this case study, we identified major challenges related to the identification of relevant benefit-risk criteria and taking into account the diversity and quality of evidence available to inform the benefit-risk assessment. The main challenges in applying formal methods for medical benefit-risk assessment for a marketed drug are related to outcome definitions and data availability. Data exist from many different sources (both randomised clinical trials and observational studies), and the variability in the studies is large. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Flood hazard and flood risk assessment using a time series of satellite images: a case study in Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, Sergii; Kussul, Nataliia; Shelestov, Andrii; Kussul, Olga

    2014-08-01

    In this article, the use of time series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment is presented. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images for the flood-prone territory, and a maximum flood extent image for each flood event is produced. These maps are further fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI). The study shows that RFI values and relative water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution, which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The produced RFI map can be used as a flood hazard map, especially in cases when flood modeling is complicated by lack of available data and high uncertainties. The derived RFI map is further used for flood risk assessment. Efficiency of the presented approach is demonstrated for the Katima Mulilo region (Namibia). A time series of Landsat-5/7 satellite images acquired from 1989 to 2012 is processed to derive RFI map using the presented approach. The following direct damage categories are considered in the study for flood risk assessment: dwelling units, roads, health facilities, and schools. The produced flood risk map shows that the risk is distributed uniformly all over the region. The cities and villages with the highest risk are identified. The proposed approach has minimum data requirements, and RFI maps can be generated rapidly to assist rescuers and decisionmakers in case of emergencies. On the other hand, limitations include: strong dependence on the available data sets, and limitations in simulations with extrapolated water depth values.

  4. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Bullo, M.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Olschewski, R.; Zappa, M.; Marcomini, A.

    2014-07-01

    The main objective of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River valley, in Switzerland. Through a tuning process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features, flood related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in urban area. After characterizing the peculiarities of the specific case study, risk maps have been developed under a 300 years return period scenario (selected as baseline) for six identified relevant targets, exposed to flood risk in the Sihl valley, namely: people, economic activities (including buildings, infrastructures and agriculture), natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map, which allows to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis tools, has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the area of study. By means of a tailored participative approach, the total risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of the relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores and weights related to the receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher relative risks are concentrated in the deeply urbanized area within and around the Zurich city centre and areas that rely just behind to the Sihl River course. Here, forecasted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and high presence of old (vulnerable) people; inundated buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, the majority of them referring to the Zurich main

  5. Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-09-01

    recognizing intra-ethnic diversity within the Hispanic category to obtain a more comprehensive assessment of the social distribution of flood risks.

  6. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  7. KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Bullo, M.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Olschewski, R.; Zappa, M.; Marcomini, A.

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating the methodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps and statistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario for six relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economic activities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; natural and semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting for the different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in the deeply urbanized city centre and areas that lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presence of vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station (Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirect damage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively

  8. Flood risk assessment. Case of study: Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Novelo-Casanova

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to its geographical location, the community of Motozintla de Mendoza (Motozintla in the State of Chiapas, Mexico, is continuously exposed to the impact of natural hazards. In this work, we assessed the flood risk of Motozintla considering the structural, socioeconomic, organizational, and global (structural, socioeconomic, and organizational vulnerabilities. In addition, we also measured the local risk perception. Spatial maps were generated to determine the most vulnerable and risk areas of this community. Our results indicate that the population has a high level of risk to flooding mainly because (1 the majority of the local houses has high structural vulnerability; (2 a high percentage of the families has a daily income less than the official Mexican minimum wage and lacks of basic public services as well as of proper social security services; (3 most of the community does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan; and (4 the community organization for disaster mitigation and response is practically non-existent. For these reasons, we believe that it is necessary for local authorities to establish in the short-term, preparedness, mitigation and response plans as well as land-use measures to reduce the risk to floods in Motozintla.

  9. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  10. Archaeology, historical site risk assessment and monitoring by UAV: approaches and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecci, Antonio; Masini, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    , Ychma and Inca. A test site has been selected to assess the capability of SAR satellite data for the identification of earthen archaeological features. UAV surveys have been performed to provide a very detail DEM enabling us to analyze and interpret the radar signal backscattering behaviour of archaeological microrelief and structures. In all the three applications UAV proved to be an effective, user-friendly, less time consuming, flexible tool for a number of applications and aims ranging from from the site detection to the risk evaluation of archaeological interest areas. References Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2012. Remote Sensing in Archaeology: From Visual Data Interpretation to Digital Data Manipulation, In: Lasaponara R., Masini N. (Eds) 2012, Satellite Remote Sensing: a new tool for Archaeology, Springer, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-90-481-8800-0, pp. 3-16, doi : 10.1007/978-90-481-8801-7_1. Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2013, Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar in Archaeology and Cultural Landscape: An Overview. Archaeological Prospection, 20, 71-78, doi: 10.1002/arp.1452 Lasaponara R., Leucci G., Masini N., Persico R., Scardozzi G. 2016a. Towards an operative use of remote sensing for exploring the past using satellite data: The case study of Hierapolis (Turkey), Remote sensing of Environment, 174 (2016) : 148-164, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.12.016 Lasaponara R., Masini N., Pecci A., Perciante F., Pozzi Escot D., Rizzo E., Scavone M., Sileo M. 2016b, Qualitative evaluation of COSMO SkyMed in the detection of earthen archaeological remains: the case of Pachamacac (Peru)", Journal of Cultural heritage, 2016, in press. Leucci G., Masini N., Rizzo E., Capozzoli L., De Martino G. et al., Integrated Archaeogeophysical Approach for the Study of a Medieval Monastic Settlement in Basilicata, Open Archaeology 2015; 1: 236-246, doi: 10.1515/opar-2015-0014. F. Neitzel, J. Klonowski, Mobile 3d mapping with a low-cost UAV system, Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf

  11. A case study using the PrOACT-URL and BRAT frameworks for structured benefit risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixon, Richard; Dierig, Christoph; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Stöckert, Isabelle; Tong, Thaison; Kuhls, Silvia; Hodgson, Gemma; Pears, John; Waddingham, Ed; Hockley, Kimberley; Thomson, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    While benefit-risk assessment is a key component of the drug development and maintenance process, it is often described in a narrative. In contrast, structured benefit-risk assessment builds on established ideas from decision analysis and comprises a qualitative framework and quantitative methodology. We compare two such frameworks, applying multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) within the PrOACT-URL framework and weighted net clinical benefit (wNCB), within the BRAT framework. These are applied to a case study of natalizumab for the treatment of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. We focus on the practical considerations of applying these methods and give recommendations for visual presentation of results. In the case study, we found structured benefit-risk analysis to be a useful tool for structuring, quantifying, and communicating the relative benefit and safety profiles of drugs in a transparent, rational and consistent way. The two frameworks were similar. MCDA is a generic and flexible methodology that can be used to perform a structured benefit-risk in any common context. wNCB is a special case of MCDA and is shown to be equivalent to an extension of the number needed to treat (NNT) principle. It is simpler to apply and understand than MCDA and can be applied when all outcomes are measured on a binary scale.

  12. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieger, Khara D; Hansen, Steffen F; Sørensen, Peter B; Baun, Anders

    2011-09-01

    Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future, especially given the vast variety and complexity of nanomaterials and their applications. As an approach to help optimize environmental risk assessments of nanomaterials, we apply the Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model to identify best estimates for worst-case conditions of environmental risks of two case studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C(60) in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C(60) in these applications as well as demonstrate the use of worst-case conditions to optimize future research efforts for other nanomaterials. Through the application of the WCD model, we find that the most probable worst-case conditions for both case studies include i) active uptake mechanisms, ii) accumulation in organisms, iii) ecotoxicological response mechanisms such as reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell membrane damage or disruption, iv) surface properties of nZVI and C(60), and v) acute exposure tolerance of organisms. Additional estimates of worst-case conditions for C(60) also include the physical location of C(60) in the environment from surface run-off, cellular exposure routes for heterotrophic organisms, and the presence of light to amplify adverse effects. Based on results of this analysis, we recommend the prioritization of research for the selected applications within the following areas: organism active uptake ability of nZVI and C(60) and ecotoxicological response end-points and response mechanisms including ROS production and cell membrane damage, full nanomaterial characterization taking

  13. Preliminary risk assessment of radon in groundwater: a case study from Eskisehir, Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuce, Galip; Gasparon, Massimo

    2013-06-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the radon concentrations in the water supplies of a residential area of central west Anatolia, Turkey. This research provides a preliminary risk assessment for inhabitants in the study area which can be applied for other regions. In 14 out of the 19 water supplies analysed, radon concentrations exceeded the maximum contaminant level (11.1 Bq l(-1)). The total annual effective doses of 10 for the wet season and 14 for the dry season out of the 19 water supplies are greater than the values recommended by EPA [Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides, Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1999) pdf >] (0.1 mSv a(-1)). The elevated radon concentrations in water resources are most probably linked with geological origin which contains significant amounts of radioactive minerals.

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  16. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I. A knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, P.S.; Thomsen, M.; Assmuth, T.

    2010-01-01

    and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again...... a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification...... and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management....

  17. Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change: a case study in Southern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. C. Yang

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on drought risk in a water resources system in Southern Taiwan by integrating the weather generator, hydrological model and simulation model of reservoir operation. Three composite indices with multi-aspect measurements of reservoir performance (i.e. reliability, resilience and vulnerability were compared by their monotonic behaviors to find a suitable one for the study area. The suitable performance index was then validated by the historical drought events and proven to have the capability of being a drought risk index in the study area. The downscaling results under A1B emission scenario from seven general circulation models were used in this work. The projected results show that the average monthly mean inflows during the dry season tend to decrease from the baseline period (1980–1999 to the future period (2020–2039; the average monthly mean inflows during the wet season may increase/decrease in the future. Based on the drought risk index, the analysis results for public and agricultural water uses show that the occurrence frequency of drought may increase and the severity of drought may be more serious during the future period than during the baseline period, which makes a big challenge on water supply and allocation for the authorities of reservoir in Southern Taiwan.

  18. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  19. Spatial variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: a case study on the potential risk of cadmium for the little owl in a Dutch river flood plain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, Lammert; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Ragas, Ad M J; Wehrens, Ron; Leuven, Rob S E W

    2005-04-01

    This paper outlines a procedure that quantifies the impact of different sources of spatial variability and uncertainty on ecological risk estimates. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that estimates the risks of cadmium for a little owl (Athene noctua vidalli) living in a Dutch river flood plain along the river Rhine. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to quantify spatial variability in contaminant concentrations and habitats. It was combined with an exposure and effect model that uses Monte Carlo simulation to quantify parameter uncertainty. Spatial model uncertainty was assessed by the application of two different spatial interpolation methods (classification and kriging) and foraging ranges. The results of the case study show that parameter uncertainty is the main type of uncertainty influencing the risk estimate, and to a lesser extent spatial variability, while spatial model uncertainty was of minor importance. Compared to the deterministically calculated hazard index for the little owl (0.9), inclusion of spatial variability resulted in a median hazard index that can vary between 0.8 and 1.4. It is concluded that a single estimator for a whole flood plain may over- or underestimate risks for specific parts within the flood plain. Further research that expands the procedure presented in this paper is necessary to improve the incorporation of spatial factors in ecological risk assessment.

  20. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  1. Establish susceptibility and risk assessment models for rainfall-induced landslide: A case in Central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunhung; Huang, Jyuntai

    2017-04-01

    Most of the landslide cases in Taiwan were triggered by rainfall or earthquake events. The heavy rainfall in the typhoon seasons, from June to October, causes the landslide hazard more serious. Renai Towhship is of the most large landslide cases after 2009 Typhoon Morakot (from Aug. 5 to Aug. 10, 2009) in Taiwan. Around 2,744 landslides cases with the total landslide area of 21.5 km2 (landslide ratio =1.8%), including 26 large landslide cases, induced after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Towhship. The area of each large landslides case is more than 0.1 km2, and the area of the largest case is around 0.96 km2. 58% of large landslide cases locate in the area with metamorphosed sandstone. The mean slope of 26 large landslide cases ranges from 15 degree to 56 degree, and the accumulated rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot ranges from 530 mm to 937 mm. Three methods, including frequency ratio method (abbreviated as FR), weights of evidence method (abbreviated as WOE), and logistic regression method (abbreviated as LR), are used in this study to establish the landslides susceptibility in the Renai Township, Nantou County, Taiwan. Eight landslide related-factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, land use, distance to drainage, distance to fault, accumulation rainfall during 2009 Typhoon Morakot, are used to establish the landslide susceptibility models in this study. The landslide inventory after 2009 Typhoon Morakot is also used to test the model performance in this study. The mean accumulated rainfall in Renai Township during 2009 typhoon Morakot was around 735 mm with the maximum 1-hr, 3-hrs, and 6-hrs rainfall intensity of 44 mm/1-hr, 106 mm/3-hrs and 204 mm/6-hrs, respectively. The range of original susceptibility values established by three methods are 4.0 to 20.9 for FR, -33.8 to -16.1 for WOE, and -41.7 to 5.7 for LR, and the mean landslide susceptibility value are 8.0, -24.6 and 0.38, respectively. The AUC values are 0.815 for FR, 0.816 for WOE, and 0

  2. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  3. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  4. Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); White, Lori D. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kim, Andrea S. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Sen, Banalata [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Wilson, Vickie S. [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Keshava, Channa; Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Ovacik, Meric A.; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Androulakis, Ioannis P. [National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Bioinformatics Center, Environmental Bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center (ebCTC), Rutgers University and University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States); Gaido, Kevin W. [Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD 20855 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals

  5. Including the urban heat island in spatial heat health risk assessment strategies: a case study for Birmingham, UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thornes John E

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Heatwaves present a significant health risk and the hazard is likely to escalate with the increased future temperatures presently predicted by climate change models. The impact of heatwaves is often felt strongest in towns and cities where populations are concentrated and where the climate is often unintentionally modified to produce an urban heat island effect; where urban areas can be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. The purpose of this interdisciplinary study is to integrate remotely sensed urban heat island data alongside commercial social segmentation data via a spatial risk assessment methodology in order to highlight potential heat health risk areas and build the foundations for a climate change risk assessment. This paper uses the city of Birmingham, UK as a case study area. Results When looking at vulnerable sections of the population, the analysis identifies a concentration of "very high" risk areas within the city centre, and a number of pockets of "high risk" areas scattered throughout the conurbation. Further analysis looks at household level data which yields a complicated picture with a considerable range of vulnerabilities at a neighbourhood scale. Conclusions The results illustrate that a concentration of "very high" risk people live within the urban heat island, and this should be taken into account by urban planners and city centre environmental managers when considering climate change adaptation strategies or heatwave alert schemes. The methodology has been designed to be transparent and to make use of powerful and readily available datasets so that it can be easily replicated in other urban areas.

  6. Undisclosed chemicals--implications for risk assessment: a case study from the mining industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Khareen; Oates, Christopher; Plant, Jane; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-07-01

    Many of the chemicals used in industry can be hazardous to human health and the environment, and some formulations can have undisclosed ingredients and hazards, increasing the uncertainty of the risks posed by their use. The need for a better understanding of the extent of undisclosed information in chemicals arose from collecting data on the hazards and exposures of chemicals used in typical mining operations (copper, platinum and coal). Four main categories of undisclosed chemicals were defined (incomplete disclosure; chemicals with unspecific identities; relative quantities of ingredients not stated; and trade secret ingredients) by reviewing material safety data sheet (MSDS) omissions in previous studies. A significant number of chemicals (20% of 957 different chemicals) across the three sites had a range of undisclosed information, with majority of the chemicals (39%) having unspecific identities. The majority of undisclosed information was found in commercially available motor oils followed by cleaning products and mechanical maintenance products, as opposed to reagents critical to the main mining processes. All three types of chemicals had trade secrets, unspecific chemical identities and incomplete disclosures. These types of undisclosed information pose a hindrance to a full understanding of the hazards, which is made worse when combined with additional MSDS omissions such as acute toxicity endpoints (LD50) and/or acute aquatic toxicity endpoints (LC50), as well as inadequate hazard classifications of ingredients. The communication of the hazard information in the MSDSs varied according to the chemical type, the manufacturer and the regulations governing the MSDSs. Undisclosed information can undermine occupational health protection, compromise the safety of workers in industry, hinder risk assessment procedures and cause uncertainty about future health. It comes down to the duty of care that industries have towards their employees. With a wide range of

  7. Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

  8. Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

    2008-12-01

    Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates

  9. Ecological risk assessment for small omnivorous mammals exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: a case study in northeastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Serrano, Rosa María; Iturbe-Argüelles, Rosario; Pérez-Casimiro, Guillermina; Ramírez-González, Adriana; Flores-Guido, José Salvador; Kantún-Balam, Jesús Martín

    2014-04-01

    An ecological risk assessment (ERA) was performed using the hazard quotient (HQ) method to evaluate the risks of oral exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for medium sized omnivorous mammals. This is the first in a series of three papers. In Mexico there is little experience in performing this kind of assessment for the terrestrial compartment, in particular for birds and mammals exposed to hydrocarbons. The purpose of this paper is to perform an ERA and to establish if the omnivorous mammalian species living in the area are at risk of adverse effects. The studied site is a land that in past years had been used for the disposition of petroleum tank bottom sludges, and scrap metals. Soil and water samples were collected and analyzed, and we obtained a list of the site's wildlife species as well as samples of the specimens, which were analyzed also. HQs were calculated for the hydrocarbons identified as chemicals of potential ecological concern (COPECs) and the omnivorous mammals of the site were evaluated. Toxicity reference values (TRVs) were taken from the appropriate literature, and the doses of exposure were estimated considering the ingestion of water, soil, and diet. Results indicated that potential risks associated to the oral exposure route were less than benchmarks for effects (in all cases HQMexico. This should be primarily aimed at obtaining TRVs for mammals, and consider test species with body weights more similar to those found in the local fauna. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessing and Managing the Risks of Fuel Compounds: Ethanol Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Layton, D.W.; Rice, D.W.

    2002-02-04

    We have implemented a suite of chemical transport and fate models that provide diagnostic information about the behavior of ethanol (denoted EtOH) and other fuel-related chemicals released to the environment. Our principal focus is on the impacts to water resources, as this has been one of the key issues facing the introduction of new fuels and additives. We present analyses comparing the transport and fate of EtOH, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and 2,2,4 trimethyl pentane (TMP) for the following cases (1) discharges to stratified lakes, subsurface release in a surficial soil, (3) cross-media transfer from air to ground water, and (4) fate in a regional landscape. These compounds have significantly different properties that directly influence their behavior in the environment. EtOH, for example, has a low Henry's law constant, which means that it preferentially partitions to the water phase instead of air. An advantageous characteristic of EtOH is its rapid biodegradation rate in water; unlike MTBE or TMP, which degrade slowly. As a consequence, EtOH does not pose a significant risk to water resources. Preliminary health-protective limits for EtOH in drinking water suggest that routine releases to the environment will not result in levels that threaten human health.

  11. Disease mapping and risk assessment in veterinary parasitology: some case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cringoli, G; Rinaldi, L; Veneziano, V; Musella, V

    2005-03-01

    Disease mapping and risk assessment are important tasks in the area of medical and veterinary epidemiology. The development of methods for mapping diseases has progressed considerably in recent years. Geographical Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS), and Spatial Analysis represent new tools for the study of epidemiology, and their application to parasitology has become more and more advanced, in particular to study the spatial and temporal patterns of diseases. The present review highlights the usefulness of GIS and RS in veterinary parasitology in order to better know the epidemiology of parasite organisms, causing either snail/arthropod borne diseases or direct transmissible diseases, mostly in small areas with a strong impact by man. It demonstrates the potential of these technologies to serve as effective tools for: data capture, mapping and analysis for the development of descriptive parasitological maps; studying the environmental features that influence the distribution of parasites; predicting parasite occurrence/seasonality based on their environmental requirements and as decision support for disease intervention; and surveillance and monitoring of animal diseases.

  12. Integrated ecological risk assessment of pesticides in tropical ecosystems: a case study with carbofuran in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelinho, Sónia; Lopes, Isabel; Natal-da-Luz, Tiago; Domene, Xaxier; Nunes, Maria Edna Tenorio; Espíndola, Evaldo L G; Ribeiro, Rui; Sousa, Jose P

    2012-02-01

    The aim of the present study is to contribute an ecologically relevant assessment of the ecotoxicological effects of pesticide applications in agricultural areas in the tropics, using an integrated approach with information gathered from soil and aquatic compartments. Carbofuran, an insecticide/nematicide used widely on sugarcane crops, was selected as a model substance. To evaluate the toxic effects of pesticide spraying for soil biota, as well as the potential indirect effects on aquatic biota resulting from surface runoff and/or leaching, field and laboratory (using a cost-effective simulator of pesticide applications) trials were performed. Standard ecotoxicological tests were performed with soil (Eisenia andrei, Folsomia candida, and Enchytraeus crypticus) and aquatic (Ceriodaphnia silvestrii) organisms, using serial dilutions of soil, eluate, leachate, and runoff samples. Among soil organisms, sensitivity was found to be E. crypticus bioassays performed with samples from the field trial, indicating the need for improvements in the laboratory simulator. However, the tool developed proved to be valuable in evaluating the toxic effects of pesticide spraying in soils and the potential risks for aquatic compartments.

  13. Flood risk assessment in The Netherlands: a case study for dike ring South Holland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonkman, Sebastiaan N; Kok, Matthijs; Vrijling, Johannes K

    2008-10-01

    Large parts of The Netherlands are below sea level. Therefore, it is important to have insight into the possible consequences and risks of flooding. In this article, an analysis of the risks due to flooding of the dike ring area South Holland in The Netherlands is presented. For different flood scenarios the potential number of fatalities is estimated. Results indicate that a flood event in this area can expose large and densely populated areas and result in hundreds to thousands of fatalities. Evacuation of South Holland before a coastal flood will be difficult due to the large amount of time required for evacuation and the limited time available. By combination with available information regarding the probability of occurrence of different flood scenarios, the flood risks have been quantified. The probability of death for a person in South Holland due to flooding, the so-called individual risk, is small. The probability of a flood disaster with many fatalities, the so-called societal risk, is relatively large in comparison with the societal risks in other sectors in The Netherlands, such as the chemical sector and aviation. The societal risk of flooding appears to be unacceptable according to some of the existing risk limits that have been proposed in literature. These results indicate the necessity of a further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk in The Netherlands and the need for additional risk reducing measures.

  14. An audit to assess the consequences of the use of a pluripotential risk syndrome: the case to move on from "psychosis risk syndrome (PRS) ".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agius, Mark; Zaman, Rashid; Hanafy, Dean

    2013-09-01

    An audit has been carried out of the patients who have been assessed using the CAARMS tool in order to assess patients who have been judged to have a prodromal psychotic syndrome. Instead of advocating PRS, Johannessen & McGorry (Johannessen 2010), have offered an alternative: a 'Pluripotent risk syndrome'. This less specific prodrome reflects the unpredictable nature of "Ultra-High Risk" states which have been shown to be more likely to develop into a non-psychotic mood disorder than schizophrenia (Hoon 2012). The corollary this is thus; could patients who exhibit significant depressive features (regardless of diagnosis) be initially identified as having a 'Pluripotent risk syndrome'? Ten adult patients (6 males & 4 females, aged 19-26 years old) with four broad psychiatric diagnoses (Depression, Schizoaffective disorder, Borderline personality disorder and psychotic illness) were chosen from an anonimised database of the patients and their symptomatology as assessed by CAARMS was retrospectively assessed to see if the presence of depressive symptoms supported the case for a "Pluripotent risk syndrome". Though patients diagnosed with depression frequently exhibited depressive symptoms, psychotic symptoms were also apparent, albeit in comparatively decreased severity. Patients diagnosed with schizoaffective disorder had depressive symptoms more frequently than psychotic symptoms, but these were comparatively less severe. Borderline personality disorder patients exhibited depressive symptoms more frequently than psychotic symptoms. Psychotic illnesses frequently had depressive symptoms, but more typically (and unsurprisingly) had comparatively more severe psychotic than depressive symptoms. Hence we propose that the concept of a "Pluripotent risk syndrome" is in our view born out.

  15. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  16. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  17. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  18. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  19. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  20. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  1. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    AMSAA Kadry Rizk, TARDEC Lisa Graf, TARDEC Klaus Sanford, TRAC Elyse Krezmien, TRAC Jerry Scriven, ALU Igor Linkov, ERDC Alison Tichenor...Engineering ATEC - Army Test and Evaluation Command BCA - Business Case Analysis C - Consequence Level C- BA - Cost Benefit Analysis CDD...the AMSAA Risk Team has completed 12 technical and schedule risk assessments to support AoAs and Cost-Benefit Analyses (C- BAs ). AMSAA also developed

  2. Interdisciplinary Approach for Assessment of Continental River Flood Risk: A Case Study of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Kwak, Youngjoo; Ledvinka, Ondřej; Iwami, Yoichi; Danhelka, Jan

    2017-04-01

    In this research, GIS-based hydrological model-driven approach produces the distribution of continent-level flood risk based on national-level GIS data. In order to reveal flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a large river basin, the system employs the simplified model such as GFiD2M (Global Flood inundation Depth 2-dimension Model) to calculate the differential inundation depth and the economic loss by pixel-based statistical processing, considering climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the representative concentration pathways emissions and the shared socioeconomic pathways, despite current limitations of data collections and poor data availability. We need new approaches to seek the possibility of its national-scale application, so that the framework can bring (1) improved flood inundation map (i.e., discharge, depth, velocity) using rainfall runoff inundation model, based on the in-situ data (rain-gauge and water level), validated with Earth Observation data, i.e., MODIS, (2) advanced flood forecasting using radar and satellite observed rainfall for national-level operational hydrological observations, (3) potential economic impact with the effect of flood hazard and risk under climate and socioeconomic changes based on rainfall from general circulation model. The preliminary examinations showed the better possibility of a nation-wide application for integrated flood risk management. At the same time, the hazard and risk model were also validated against event-based flood inundation of a national-level flood in the Czech Republic. Within the Czech Republic, although radar rainfall data have been used in operational hydrology for some time, there are also other products capable of warning us about the potential risk of floods. For instance, images from Europe's Sentinel satellites have not been evaluated for their use in Czech hydrology. This research is at the very beginning of a validation and its evaluation, focusing mainly on heavy rainfall and

  3. Potential Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Erwinia amylovora in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Chen; CHEN Juan; HU Bai-shi; JIANG Ying-hua; LIU Feng-quan

    2007-01-01

    Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity and economy, as in the case of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora), a bacterial disease that originated in North America, which may be released into new locations by means of fruit trade. On the basis of the knowledge of Erwinia amylovora's biophysical characteristics and environmental data, the geographic information system (GIS) has been applied to determine areas where Erwinia amylovora can potentially invade China. Temperature and precipitation, during the blossoming period, are considered to be two critical factors affecting the Erwinia amylovora's suitable climatic zones. This spatial modeling approach was validated from a case study in Europe, where the occurrence of Erwinia amylovora has been proven. The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of the bacteria recorded in Europe, and the same procedure has been applied to produce a potential establishment area in China's two preferential apple cultivation regions, Bohai Bay region and Huangtu Altiplano region. It has been found that areas belonging to the high-risk category are more or less the main apple producing areas, accounting for their great economic importance in China. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. In addition, this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use, in making decisions on management practices where alien species are involved.

  4. GIS-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT OF PESTICIDE DRIFT CASE STUDY: FRESNO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report describes the potential risk of herbicide drift and accidentally damaging neighboring crops or surrounding native vegetation. This study is the first to use the California Pesticide Use Reporting database within a mapping framework (known as a Geographic Information S...

  5. Environmental risk assessment for invasive alien species: A case study of apple snails affecting ecosystem services in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilioli, Gianni; Schrader, Gritta; Carlsson, Nils; van Donk, Ellen; van Leeuwen, Casper H.A.; Martín, Pablo R.; Pasquali, Sara; Vilà, Montserrat; Vos, Sybren

    Abstract The assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien species (IAS) to the environment is a component of increasing importance for Pest Risk Analysis. Standardized and comprehensive procedures to assess their impacts on ecosystem services have been developed only recently. The invasive apple

  6. An assessment of environmental and toxicological risk to pesticide exposure based on a case-based approach to computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Cristina; Vicente, Henrique; Rosário Martins, M.; Lima, Nelson; Neves, Mariana; Neves, José

    2017-01-01

    Pesticide environmental fate and toxicity depends on its physical and chemical features, the soil composition, soil adsorption, as well as residues that may be found in different soil slots. Indeed, pesticide degradation in soil may be influenced by either biotic or abiotic factors. In addition, the toxicity of pesticides for living organisms depends on their adsorption, distribution, biotransformation, dissemination of metabolites together with interaction with cellular macromolecules and excretion. Biotransformation may result in the formation of less toxic and/or more toxic metabolites, while other processes determine the balance between toxic and a nontoxic upcoming. Aggregate exposure and risk assessment involve multiple pathways and routes, including the potential for pesticide residues in food and drinking water, in addition to residues from pesticide use in residential and non-occupational environments. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a decision support system to assess the environmental and toxicological risk to pesticide exposure, built on top of a Logic Programming approach to Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, complemented with a Case Based attitude to computing. The proposed solution is unique in itself, once it caters for the explicit treatment of incomplete, unknown, or even self-contradictory information, either in terms of a qualitative or quantitative setting.

  7. Conformity assessment of multicomponent materials or objects: Risk of false decisions due to measurement uncertainty - A case study of denatured alcohols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; da Silva, Ricardo J N B; Brynn Hibbert, D

    2017-03-01

    Risk of a false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material or object due to measurement uncertainty is discussed. Even if conformity assessment for each component of a material sample is successful, the total probability of a false decision (total consumer's risk or producer's risk) concerning the sample as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of such false decisions is formulated based on the law (theorem) of total probability. It is shown that the total risk can be evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of conformity assessment of sample components. For a more complicated task, i.e. for a larger number of components of a sample under control, the total risk is greater. As a case study, the total probability of false conforming (total consumer's risk) is evaluated for customs control of completely denatured alcohols, where conformity assessment is performed by comparison of chemical analytical test results with the regulatory limits.

  8. [Comparative analysis of two different methods for risk assessment of groundwater pollution: a case study in Beijing plain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hong-na; He, Jiang-tao; Ma, Wen-jie; Xu, Zhen

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater contamination risk assessment has important meaning to groundwater contamination prevention planning and groundwater exploitation potentiality. Recently, UN assessment system and WP assessment system have become the focuses of international research. In both systems, the assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: intrinsic vulnerability, aquifer storage, groundwater quality, groundwater resource protection zone and contamination load. But, the five factors were built up in different ways. In order to expound the difference between the UN and WP assessment systems, and explain the main reasons, the UN and WP assessment systems were applied to Beijing Plain, China. The maps constructed from the UN and WP risk assessment systems were compared. The results showed that both kinds of groundwater contamination risk assessment maps were in accordance with the actual conditions and were similar in spatial distribution trends. However, there was quite significant different in the coverage area at the same level. It also revealed that during the system construction process, the structural hierarchy, relevant overlaying principles and classification method might have effects on the groundwater contamination risk assessment map. UN assessment system and WP assessment system were both suitable for groundwater contamination risk assessment of the plain, however, their emphasis was different.

  9. Dose-response modeling for the environmental risk assessment in cases of technogenic soil contamination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shitikov Vladimir Kirilloviсh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The review of regression models for the approximation of dependences "dose- response" was performed based on ecotoxicological results. The advantages and deficiencies of different models as well as the problems arising both in modeling and subsequent interpreting results are discussed for the purpose of ecological rationing and estimation of negative influence risk. Search procedures of best dependences based on statistical criteria and the methods of uncertainty estimation of calculated parameters are shown. Construction of models is illustrated in detail using the analysis of toxicity results of soil samples received from uranium mines tailings in Kadzhi-Say province (Kyrgyzstan. Threshold values of activity for U-238 and Ra-226 radionuclides providing the minimum probability of ecological risk were determined.

  10. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  11. Urban Risk Assessment of Lahar Flows in Merapi Volcano (Study Case: Muntilan Urban Area, Central Java)

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the research was to analyse probability of lahar flows occurrence in Muntilan urban area, Central Java. By using integrated methods, which involve the numerical simulation program, Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and field verification to produce lahar flows Hazard Map and Risk Map. Muntilan urban area located at western flank of Merapi volcano, and in down stream of Lamat river. The river is Lahar River that is endangering from Merapi vol...

  12. Multivariate erosion risk assessment of lateritic badlands of Birbhum (West Bengal, India): A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sandipan Ghosh; Kamala Bhattacharya

    2012-12-01

    Each geomorphic hazard involves a degree of risk which incorporates quantification of the probability that a hazard will be harmful. At present, the categorization of sub-watersheds into erosion risk is considered as the fundamental step to conserve the soil loss. Development of badlands over the laterites of Birbhum district is an indicative of excessive soil loss in the monsoonal wet-dry type of climate. Slope erosion and channel erosion have generated huge amount of sediment from the small watersheds during intense monsoonal rainfall (June–September). The adjoining areas of Rampurhat I Block, Birbhum (West Bengal) and Shikaripara Block, Dumka (Jharkhand) have lost the lateritic soil cover at a rate of 20–40 ton/ha/year (Sarkar et al. 2005). In order to estimate the progressive removal of soil particles from the gully-catchments of the above-mentioned area, different morphometric parameters, soil parameters, hydrologic parameters and empirical models are employed. Side by side, the study is carried out to categorize the gully-catchments into different magnitude of erosion risk using several multivariate statistical techniques.

  13. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  14. Ecological risk assessment of trace elements in sediment: A case study from Limpopo, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahms, S; Baker, N J; Greenfield, R

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the ecological risk posed by metals, in sediments from the Nyl River system in Limpopo, South Africa. Metals were extracted from sediment samples by aqua regia microwave digestion and were analysed using standard ICP-OES techniques. The ecological risk indices applied to the data included Contamination Factor, Pollution Load Index, Geo-accumulation Index and Enrichment Factor. The results showed that the levels of Ni at STW and NYL in the HF period exceeded the Canadian Sediment Quality Guidelines by a factor of 1.36 and 1.83 respectively whereas NYL and MDD had 2.57 and 1.32 times the allowed limit of Ni in the LF period. During the HF period, the GC site exceeded the allowed limit of Zn by a factor of 1.04 and NYL had 1.21 times the allowed Zn in the LF period. The levels of metals are generally low near the origin of the river and increase moving downstream. The levels of metals in the Nyl River floodplain, a Ramsar accredited wetland, were high with CF scores ranging between 0.905 and 5.82, Igeo values with a range of -0.541 to 2.441 and EF scores ranging from 0.959 to 6.171. and posed a greater risk than the other sites. This indicated that the wetland is performing its ecological function by trapping and removing toxins from the water body. The Pollution Load Index determined that the Golf Course (PLI=4.586) and STW (PLI=2.617) sites were polluted only in the low flow period whereas the Nyl River floodplain (HF PLI=79.845; LF PLI=30378.768) and Moorddrift Dam (HF PLI=1.903; LF PLI=9.256) sites were polluted in high flow and low flow periods.

  15. HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY OF HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION OF GARDEN SOILS IN SZEGED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREA FARSANG

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The soils of the big cities, owing to the various anthropogenic activities, can be contaminated by heavy metals. The surroundings of the roads with heavy traffic as significant metal emitter source can be contaminated by heavy metals. The hobby gardens and the vegetable gardens directly along roads can be potential risky for people since unknown amount of heavy metals can be accumulated into organization of local residents due to consumption of vegetables and fruits grown in their own garden. Most metals are well-known to have toxic characters but we have known little what extent these metals exert influence on people living directly along road with busy traffic. During our research, metal contamination has been investigated in the gardens near the roads with heavy traffic in Szeged by measuring of metal contents in soil and plants samples. Enrichment factor has been calculated with the help of control soil samples far from roads having heavily traffic. Besides determination of the metal content of soil and plant samples, soil properties basically influencing on metal mobility has been examined in order to characterize the buffering capacity of the studied soils. The health risk quotients have also been determined to evaluate human health risk of the contaminated soils.

  16. Assessing the Risk Factors for Musculoskeletal Disorders in Construction Workers Using PATH, Case Study: Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaban parhani

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Construction workers experience a high risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders due to the nature of their jobs. This article aimed to evaluate the risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among construction workers using Posture, Activity Tools and Handling (PATH. This is a sectional, descriptive-analytical study in a construction site in Tehran, Iran. Certain factors were identified namely body posture, weight of carried tools and objects, activities and tools, and their tasks and activities using PATH. PATH sheets were coded for a certain job. Descriptive data and Chi-square test were employed to analyze the data using SPSS.19. Identification and evaluation were performed in three most important stages of construction: foundation, carcass, finishing (elaborate work. The mean age was 33.08±8.97. Body posture included gentle bending posture (21.2%, severe bending (8.2%, bending and twisting (7% and 1.9%, respectively. Body positions, feet, hands, and weight of tools and objects were significantly different in the working stages (P

  17. How to use mechanistic effect models in environmental risk assessment of pesticides: Case studies and recommendations from the SETAC workshop MODELINK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hommen, Udo; Forbes, Valery; Grimm, Volker; Preuss, Thomas G; Thorbek, Pernille; Ducrot, Virginie

    2016-01-01

    Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) are useful tools for ecological risk assessment of chemicals to complement experimentation. However, currently no recommendations exist for how to use them in risk assessments. Therefore, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) MODELINK workshop aimed at providing guidance for when and how to apply MEMs in regulatory risk assessments. The workshop focused on risk assessment of plant protection products under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 using MEMs at the organism and population levels. Realistic applications of MEMs were demonstrated in 6 case studies covering assessments for plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. From the case studies and their evaluation, 12 recommendations on the future use of MEMs were formulated, addressing the issues of how to translate specific protection goals into workable questions, how to select species and scenarios to be modeled, and where and how to fit MEMs into current and future risk assessment schemes. The most important recommendations are that protection goals should be made more quantitative; the species to be modeled must be vulnerable not only regarding toxic effects but also regarding their life history and dispersal traits; the models should be as realistic as possible for a specific risk assessment question, and the level of conservatism required for a specific risk assessment should be reached by designing appropriately conservative environmental and exposure scenarios; scenarios should include different regions of the European Union (EU) and different crops; in the long run, generic MEMs covering relevant species based on representative scenarios should be developed, which will require EU-level joint initiatives of all stakeholders involved. The main conclusion from the MODELINK workshop is that the considerable effort required for making MEMs an integral part of environmental risk assessment of pesticides is worthwhile, because

  18. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  19. Assessing volcanic risk in regions with low frequency eruptions: the Laacher See case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riede, Felix; Blong, Russell

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 13,000 years ago, the Laacher See volcano located in present-day western Germany (East Eifel volcanic field, Rhenish Shield) erupted cataclysmically and, to-date, for the last time. In addition to the near-vent destruction wrought by pyroclastic flows and massive tephra deposition, a swath of airfall ash covered Europe from the Alps to the Baltic. Mofettes in the caldera lake as well as tomography studies clearly reveal the presence of a still-active hot spot in the Eifel suggestive of the possibility of renewed activity. Previous studies have focused on the near-vent situation and on unraveling the eruption sequence. Archive legacy data harvested from a variety of disciplinary and often obscure sources (palynology, pedology, archaeology, geological grey literature) now provide new insights into the medial, distal and ultra-distal distribution of Laacher See fallout. This tephra-fall distribution and its utility as a chronostratigraphic marker at archaeological sites allow a detailed reconstruction of contemporaneous human impacts. At the same time, tephra samples collected from sites across northern Europe also reveal the causal contributions of different hazard phenomena (dental abrasion, vegetation impacts, health hazards). Given the high density of key infrastructure installations and of population in the region, risk calculations using the recently proposed Volcanic Risk Coefficient (VRC) place the Laacher See volcano on par with many more active and routinely monitored volcanoes (e.g. Teide, Ischia) - despite the Laacher See's long repose period. Indeed, the lack of prior exposure of Western European populations, coupled with the large number of countries likely to be affected by any future eruption would further aggravate any given impact. The data extant now could be used to construct robust Realistic Disaster Scenarios, and to improve outreach efforts aimed at raising awareness of this major volcano in the heart of Europe.

  20. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  1. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  2. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...... than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... in the risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...

  4. Urban Flood Vulnerability and Risk Mapping Using Integrated Multi-Parametric AHP and GIS: Methodological Overview and Case Study Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This study aims at providing expertise for preparing public-based flood mapping and estimating flood risks in growing urban areas. To model and predict the magnitude of flood risk areas, an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis techniques are used for the case of Eldoret Municipality in Kenya. The flood risk vulnerability mapping follows a multi-parametric approach and integrates some of the flooding causative factors such as rainfall d...

  5. [Health risk assessment in the metal scrap recycle: the case of Brescia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsaro, G B; Gabusi, V; Pilisi, A

    2012-01-01

    The recycle of metal scraps is one of the most important industrial activity of Brescia: almost 40% of the metal scraps produced in Italy are reprocessed in this Province. The melting process currently used produces air emissions containing dioxins, PCB and other pollutants which are dispersed in the atmosphere giving a contribution to the general environment pollution. This contribution has been and is being extensively studied in terms of air concentration and soil deposition but, because of its complexity and the difficulty to gather the necessary data, very little investigation has been made up to now on its impact on the health of workers and population. The difficulties are overcome by RAMET, a research Consortium established and financed by the main 24 metallurgical and siderurgical companies of Brescia, which can take advantage of the availability of the production facilities of its shareholders as pilot plants and has access to their database and experience. Starting from this unique favourable condition and in collaboration with the University of Brescia, RAMET is working on a research project having as main objective the assessment of the POPs dose adsorbed and the relevant consequences on workers and public health. The general scheme and organization of this project are given in this paper together with the outlines and the results of the main activities already completed or in progress.

  6. Transgenesis may affect farm animal welfare: a case for systematic risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Reenen, C G; Meuwissen, T H; Hopster, H; Oldenbroek, K; Kruip, T H; Blokhuis, H J

    2001-07-01

    This paper considers (potentially) harmful consequences of transgenesis for farm animal welfare and examines the strategy of studying health and welfare of transgenic farm animals. Evidence is discussed showing that treatments imposed in the context of farm animal transgenesis are by no means biologically neutral and may compromise animal health and welfare. Factors posing a risk for the welfare of transgenic farm animals include integration of a transgene within an endogenous gene with possible loss of host gene function (insertional mutations), inappropriate transgene expression and exposure of the host to biologically active transgene-derived proteins, and in vitro reproductive technologies employed in the process of generating transgenic farm animals that may result in an increased incidence of difficult parturition and fetal and neonatal losses and the development of unusually large or otherwise abnormal offspring (large offspring syndrome). Critical components of a scheme for evaluating welfare of transgenic farm animals are identified, related to specific characteristics of transgenic animals and to factors that may interact with the effects of transgenesis. The feasibility of an evaluation of welfare of transgenic farm animals in practice is addressed against the background of the objectives and conditions of three successive stages in a long-term transgenic program. Concrete steps with regard to breeding and testing of transgenic farm animals are presented, considering three technologies to generate transgenic founders: microinjection, electroporation and nuclear transfer, and gene targeting including gene knockout. The proposed steps allow for unbiased estimations of the essential treatment effects, including hemi- and homozygous transgene effects as well as effects of in vitro reproductive technologies. It is suggested that the implementation of appropriate breeding and testing procedures should be accompanied by the use of a comprehensive welfare

  7. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Anna Francina; Williams, Andrew; Recio, Leslie; Waters, Michael D; Lambert, Iain B; Yauk, Carole L

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2mg/kgbw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8mg/kgbw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2013. All rights reserved.

  8. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    . The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

  9. Environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the aquatic environment: a case study including a cocktail scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styrishave, Bjarne; Halling-Sørensen, Bent; Ingerslev, Flemming

    2011-01-01

    We present an environmental risk assessment of three selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs; citalopram, sertraline, and fluoxetine) in the aquatic environment based on two case scenarios. Abiotic and biotic degradation experiments and sorption estimates were used to predict environmental concentrations of three SSRIs from the wastewater of two psychiatric hospitals, the primary sector, and wastewater entering and leaving wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Assuming a sewage treatment retention time of 8 h, abiotic degradation was low, for all three SSRIs inhibitors, ranging between 0 and 2% for hydrolysis and 0 and 6% for photolysis. The biodegradation was also slow, ranging from 0 to 3% within an 8-h period. In untreated sewage, citalopram (CIT) and sertraline (SER) concentrations may be high enough to exert effects on the aquatic biota (CIT: 0.19-10.3 µg/L; SER: 0.14-17.1 µg/L). Removal of the pharmaceuticals is due primarily to sorption in the WWTP. Sertraline was estimated to have the highest concentrations in the sewage effluents, 4.4 and 19.9 ng/L for the two cases, respectively. In treated wastewater, individual SSRI concentrations are probably too low to exert effects on biota. By using concentration addition, a cocktail exposure scenario was estimated. The predicted concentration in the biota calculated from the cocktail effect was 0.05 and 0.16 nmol/g for the two cases, respectively, and SER was found to give the highest contribution to this cocktail effect. The results indicate that the concentrations in the wastewater effluents are one to two orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations likely to cause an effect in the aquatic biota.

  10. Spatial variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A case study on the potential risk of cadmium for the little owl in a Dutch river flood plain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, L.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Wehrens, H.R.M.J.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper outlines a procedure that quantifies the impact of different sources of spatial variability and uncertainty on ecological risk estimates. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that estimates the risks of cadmium for a little owl (Athene noctua vidalli) living in a Dutch river flood

  11. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  12. Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval

  13. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-02-01

    Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that correspond to toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To illustrate the practical utility of fate models in ecological risk assessments of commercial products, the EQC model and a simple screening level biouptake model including three organisms, (a bird, a mammal and a fish) is applied to gasoline. In this analysis, gasoline is divided into 24 components or ''blocks'' with similar environmental fate properties that are assumed to elicit ecotoxicity via a narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discuss the implications of these results and insights gained into the regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is particularly suitable for assessing mixtures of components that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.

  14. Case study on the utility of hepatic global gene expression profiling in the risk assessment of the carcinogen furan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, Anna Francina, E-mail: Francina.Jackson@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Williams, Andrew, E-mail: Andrew.Williams@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada); Recio, Leslie, E-mail: lrecio@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Waters, Michael D., E-mail: mwaters@ils-inc.com [ILS, Inc., P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Lambert, Iain B., E-mail: Iain.Lambert@carleton.ca [Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa K1S 5B6 (Canada); Yauk, Carole L., E-mail: Carole.Yauk@hc-sc.gc.ca [Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa K1A 0K9 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    Furan is a chemical hepatocarcinogen in mice and rats. Its previously postulated cancer mode of action (MOA) is chronic cytotoxicity followed by sustained regenerative proliferation; however, its molecular basis is unknown. To this end, we conducted toxicogenomic analysis of B3C6F1 mouse livers following three week exposures to non-carcinogenic (0, 1, 2 mg/kg bw) or carcinogenic (4 and 8 mg/kg bw) doses of furan. We saw enrichment for pathways responsible for cytotoxicity: stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK) and death receptor (DR5 and TNF-alpha) signaling, and proliferation: extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERKs) and TNF-alpha. We also noted the involvement of NF-kappaB and c-Jun in response to furan, which are genes that are known to be required for liver regeneration. Furan metabolism by CYP2E1 produces cis-2-butene-1,4-dial (BDA), which is required for ensuing cytotoxicity and oxidative stress. NRF2 is a master regulator of gene expression during oxidative stress and we suggest that chronic NFR2 activity and chronic inflammation may represent critical transition events between the adaptive (regeneration) and adverse (cancer) outcomes. Another objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of toxicogenomics data in quantitative risk assessment. We modeled benchmark doses for our transcriptional data and previously published cancer data, and observed consistency between the two. Margin of exposure values for both transcriptional and cancer endpoints were also similar. In conclusion, using furan as a case study we have demonstrated the value of toxicogenomics data in elucidating dose-dependent MOA transitions and in quantitative risk assessment. - Highlights: • Global gene expression changes in furan-exposed mouse livers were analyzed. • A molecular mode of action for furan-induced hepatocarcinogenesis is proposed. • Key pathways include NRF2, SAPK, ERK and death receptor signaling. • Important roles for TNF-alpha, c-Jun, and NF

  15. A comparison of risk modeling tools and a case study for human health risk assessment of volatile organic compounds in contaminated groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Lu; Qian, Linbo; Yan, Jingchun; Liu, Rongqin; Du, Yihua; Chen, Mengfang

    2016-01-01

    In order to promote the risk-based strategy in the investigation, assessment, and remediation of Chinese brownfield sites, the Health and Environmental Risk Assessment (HERA) software was developed. It is vital to validate the HERA model and compare the inter-model differences of HERA model against other available risk assessment tools. This paper discusses the similarities and differences between the Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Tool Kit and the HERA model by evaluating the health risk of organic contaminated groundwater sources for a chemical works in China for the first time. Consequently, the HERA and RBCA models yielded the identical results for Site-Specific Assessment Criteria (SSAC) under the commercial redevelopment. However, the HERA estimated more conservative and stringent SSACs under the residential scenario based on the different exposure calculations. The inhalation of indoor vapors was the most predominated exposure pathway for all the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) determined using the RBCA and HERA models. According to the HERA model, inhalation of chloroform may cause the highest unacceptable carcinogenic risk at 2.31 × 10(-3) under the residential scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that a risk-based remedial strategy be developed to ensure the safe and sustainable redevelopment of the site.

  16. Grouping chemicals for health risk assessment: A text mining-based case study of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Imran; Guo, Yufan; Silins, Ilona; Högberg, Johan; Stenius, Ulla; Korhonen, Anna

    2016-01-22

    As many chemicals act as carcinogens, chemical health risk assessment is critically important. A notoriously time consuming process, risk assessment could be greatly supported by classifying chemicals with similar toxicological profiles so that they can be assessed in groups rather than individually. We have previously developed a text mining (TM)-based tool that can automatically identify the mode of action (MOA) of a carcinogen based on the scientific evidence in literature, and it can measure the MOA similarity between chemicals on the basis of their literature profiles (Korhonen et al., 2009, 2012). A new version of the tool (2.0) was recently released and here we apply this tool for the first time to investigate and identify meaningful groups of chemicals for risk assessment. We used published literature on polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)-persistent, widely spread toxic organic compounds comprising of 209 different congeners. Although chemically similar, these compounds are heterogeneous in terms of MOA. We show that our TM tool, when applied to 1648 PubMed abstracts, produces a MOA profile for a subgroup of dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) which differs clearly from that for the rest of PCBs. This suggests that the tool could be used to effectively identify homogenous groups of chemicals and, when integrated in real-life risk assessment, could help and significantly improve the efficiency of the process.

  17. Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: I. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate male reproductive development toxicity data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makris, Susan L., E-mail: makris.susan@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, (Mail code 8623P), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Gray, L. Earl [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, (MD-72), Highway 54, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, (Mail code 8P-W), 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Foster, Paul M.D. [National Toxicology Program, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233 (MD K2-12), Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    A case study was conducted, using dibutyl phthalate (DBP), to explore an approach to using toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. The toxicity and toxicogenomic data sets relative to DBP-related male reproductive developmental outcomes were considered conjointly to derive information about mode and mechanism of action. In this manuscript, we describe the case study evaluation of the toxicological database for DBP, focusing on identifying the full spectrum of male reproductive developmental effects. The data were assessed to 1) evaluate low dose and low incidence findings and 2) identify male reproductive toxicity endpoints without well-established modes of action (MOAs). These efforts led to the characterization of data gaps and research needs for the toxicity and toxicogenomic studies in a risk assessment context. Further, the identification of endpoints with unexplained MOAs in the toxicity data set was useful in the subsequent evaluation of the mechanistic information that the toxicogenomic data set evaluation could provide. The extensive analysis of the toxicology data set within the MOA context provided a resource of information for DBP in attempts to hypothesize MOAs (for endpoints without a well-established MOA) and to phenotypically anchor toxicogenomic and other mechanistic data both to toxicity endpoints and to available toxicogenomic data. This case study serves as an example of the steps that can be taken to develop a toxicological data source for a risk assessment, both in general and especially for risk assessments that include toxicogenomic data.

  18. Social vulnerability assessment of flood risk using GISbased multicriteria decision analysis. A case study of Vila Nova de Gaia (Portugal)

    OpenAIRE

    Paulo Fernandez; Sandra Mourato; Madalena Moreira

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decade, flood disasters have affected millions of people and caused massive economic losses. Social vulnerability assessment uses a combination of several factors to represent a population's differential access to resources and its ability to cope with and respond to hazards. In this paper, social vulnerability assessment to flood risk was applied to the third most populous Portuguese municipality. The study was developed at the neighbourhood level, allowing for social vulnerabi...

  19. Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit–risk assessment to case studies on dietary interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verhagen, Hans; Andersen, Rikke; Antoine, Jean-Michel

    2011-01-01

    for the individual effects done by others; no new risk or benefit evaluations were made. The following case studies were thoroughly analysed: an example of food fortification, folic acid fortification of flour, macronutrient replacement/food substitution; the isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids...

  20. Gis Based Multi-Risk and Vulnerability Assessment. A Case Study for Niraj basin area (Transylvanian Depression, Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosca, Sanda; Petrea, Danut; Bilasco, Stefan; Vescan, Iuliu; Fodorean, Ioan

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards such as landslides, meandering and flash floods have caused economical damage and environmental changes in the last period of time increasing the risk level of the built-up areas and roads from Romania. Thus, an essential role in the prevention of negative effects and the identification of natural risks is played by the generation of hazard and risk maps. The purpose of the study is represented by the generation of multi-hazard and multi-risk maps using GIS technologies, which requires the identification of cumulated risk for each administrative-territorial unit situated in the study area of Niraj river basin from Transylvania Depression, Romania. The first stage in this approach was to develop the flood risk zonation which is based on floodable stripes, obtained using statistical analysis of past data series and their integration in determinist spatial analysis models, generated as a product of temporal flood probability and vulnerability of the territory. The probability of landslide occurrence was estimated using bivariate statistical analysis, by evaluating the importance of each class of preparatory factors depending of the characteristic/local conditions: lithology, geomorphology, structure, hydro-climatic factors, hydrogeology, seismicity, forestry and anthropogenic factor. Finally, the assessment of the risk associated to lateral river erosion, or meandering, was obtained by using the largest time span available (of the last 102 years) in order to identify the river's present dynamic trends of each river meander. The average and the maximum rate of erosion values were used to determine the meandering potential and to identify the meandering risk zones. Therefore, in order to accurately identify the local risk level, we calculated the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk based on their characteristic vulnerability. The final results represent valuable

  1. Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in selected categories of deli meats: impact of lactate and diacetate on listeriosis cases and deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

    2009-05-01

    Foodborne disease associated with consumption of ready-to-eat foods contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes represents a considerable pubic health concern. In a risk assessment published in 2003, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Food Safety and Inspection Service estimated that about 90% of human listeriosis cases in the United States are caused by consumption of contaminated deli meats. In this risk assessment, all deli meats were grouped into one of 23 categories of ready-to-eat foods, and only the postretail growth of L. monocytogenes was considered. To provide an improved risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in deli meats, we developed a revised risk assessment that (i) models risk for three subcategories of deli meats (i.e., ham, turkey, and roast beef) and (ii) models L. monocytogenes contamination and growth from production to consumption while considering subcategory-specific growth kinetics parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate). This model also was used to assess how reformulation of the chosen deli meat subcategories with L. monocytogenes growth inhibitors (i.e., lactate and diacetate) would impact the number of human listeriosis cases. Use of product-specific growth parameters demonstrated how certain deli meat categories differ in the relative risk of causing listeriosis; products that support more rapid growth and have reduced lag phases (e.g., turkey) represent a higher risk. Although reformulation of deli meats with growth inhibitors was estimated to reduce by about 2.5- to 7.8-fold the number of human listeriosis cases linked to a given deli meat subcategory and thus would reduce the overall risk of human listeriosis, even with reformulation deli meats would still cause a considerable number of human listeriosis cases. A combination of strategies is thus needed to provide continued reduction of these cases. Risk assessment models such as that described here will be critical for evaluation of different control

  2. Quantifying Chronic Stress Exposure for Cumulative Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned from a Case Study of Allostatic Load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although multiple methods of quantifying environmental chemical exposures have been validated for use in human health risk assessment, quantifying chronic stress exposure is more challenging. Stress is a consequence of perceiving an “exposure” (e.g., violence, poverty) as more th...

  3. Avoiding Pitfalls in the Use of the Benchmark Dose Approach to Chemical Risk Assessments; Some Illustrative Case Studies (Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USEPA's benchmark dose software (BMDS) version 1.2 has been available over the Internet since April, 2000 (epa.gov/ncea/bmds.htm), and has already been used in risk assessments of some significant environmental pollutants (e.g., diesel exhaust, dichloropropene, hexachlorocycl...

  4. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  5. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  6. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  7. Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liyanage, H.; Liaw, S-T.; Kuziemsky, C.; Mold, F.; Krause, P.; Fleming, D.; Jones, S.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Background Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. Objective To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. Method: We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. Results We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowd-sourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the “internet of things”, and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Conclusions Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance. PMID:25123718

  8. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Sørensen, Peter B.

    2011-01-01

    Conducting environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials has been an extremely challenging endeavor thus far. Moreover, recent findings from the nano-risk scientific community indicate that it is unlikely that many of these challenges will be easily resolved in the near future...... studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C60 in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C60 in these applications as well as demonstrate...

  9. Assessment and risk analysis of casing and cement impairment in oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania, 2000-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingraffea, Anthony R; Wells, Martin T; Santoro, Renee L; Shonkoff, Seth B C

    2014-07-29

    Casing and cement impairment in oil and gas wells can lead to methane migration into the atmosphere and/or into underground sources of drinking water. An analysis of 75,505 compliance reports for 41,381 conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania drilled from January 1, 2000-December 31, 2012, was performed with the objective of determining complete and accurate statistics of casing and cement impairment. Statewide data show a sixfold higher incidence of cement and/or casing issues for shale gas wells relative to conventional wells. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate risk of impairment based on existing data. The model identified both temporal and geographic differences in risk. For post-2009 drilled wells, risk of a cement/casing impairment is 1.57-fold [95% confidence interval (CI) (1.45, 1.67); P well relative to a conventional well drilled within the same time period. Temporal differences between well types were also observed and may reflect more thorough inspections and greater emphasis on finding well leaks, more detailed note taking in the available inspection reports, or real changes in rates of structural integrity loss due to rushed development or other unknown factors. Unconventional gas wells in northeastern (NE) Pennsylvania are at a 2.7-fold higher risk relative to the conventional wells in the same area. The predicted cumulative risk for all wells (unconventional and conventional) in the NE region is 8.5-fold [95% CI (7.16, 10.18); P wells drilled in the rest of the state.

  10. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  11. Assessment of risk to aquatic biota from elevated salinity -- a case study from the Hunter River, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschal, Monika

    2006-05-01

    An ecological risk assessment was performed on salinity levels of the Hunter River and its tributaries to respond to concerns that high salinity may be damaging aquatic ecosystems. Probabilistic techniques were used to assess likelihood and consequence, and hence the risk to aquatic biota from salinity. Continuous electrical conductivity distributions were used to describe the likelihood that high salinity would occur (exposure dataset) and toxicity values were compiled from the limited literature sources available to describe the consequence of high salinity (effects dataset). The assessment was preliminary in the sense that it modelled risk on the basis of existing data and did not undertake site-specific toxicity testing. Some sections of the Hunter River catchment have geologies that are saline because of their marine origins. Catchment development has increased the liberation rates of salts into surface-waters. Such modifying activities include coal-mining, power generation and land clearing. The aquatic biota of tributaries had a greater risk of impairment from high salinity than that of the Hunter River. High salinities in the tributaries were attributed to the combined factors of naturally saline geologies, increased liberation of salts due to modification of the landscape, and reduced dilution by flushing flows. A salinity guideline trigger value of 1100 mg L(-1) was recommended.

  12. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  13. Utilizing relative potency factors (RPF) and threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) concepts to assess hazard and human risk assessment profiles of environmental metabolites: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, C; Rasoulpour, R J; Knowles, S; Billington, R

    2015-03-01

    There is currently no standard paradigm for hazard and human risk assessment of environmental metabolites for agrochemicals. Using an actual case study, solutions to challenges faced are described and used to propose a generic concept to address risk posed by metabolites to human safety. A novel approach - built on the foundation of predicted human exposures to metabolites in various compartments (such as food and water), the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) and the concept of comparative toxicity - was developed for environmental metabolites of a new chemical, sulfoxaflor (X11422208). The ultimate aim was to address the human safety of the metabolites with the minimum number of in vivo studies, while at the same time, ensuring that human safety would be considered addressed on a global regulatory scale. The third component, comparative toxicity, was primarily designed to determine whether the metabolites had the same or similar toxicity profiles to their parent molecule, and also to one another. The ultimate goal was to establish whether the metabolites had the potential to cause key effects - such as cancer and developmental toxicity, based on mode-of-action (MoA) studies - and to develop a relative potency factor (RPF) compared to the parent molecule. Collectively, the work presented here describes the toxicology programme developed for sulfoxaflor and its metabolites, and how it might be used to address similar future challenges aimed at determining the relevance of the metabolites from a human hazard and risk perspective. Sulfoxaflor produced eight environmental metabolites at varying concentrations in various compartments - soil, water, crops and livestock. The MoA for the primary effects of the parent molecule were elucidated in detail and a series of in silico, in vitro, and/or in vivo experiments were conducted on the environmental metabolites to assess relative potency of their toxicity profiles when compared to the parent. The primary metabolite

  14. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  15. Assessment of Risk Due to Chemicals Transferred in a Watershed: A Case of an Aquifer Storage Transfer and Recovery Site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyon Wook Ji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the potential risks of chemicals that can affect an aquifer storage transfer and recovery (ASTR site. ASTR is a water supply system that injects surface water into an aquifer and then extracts naturally filtered groundwater. The pilot site of the ASTR supplying drinking water is located downstream of the Nakdong River in South Korea. Hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP was adopted to ensure suitable water quality in response to the deteriorated water quality of the Nakdong River. HACCP is a proactive management system for ensuring consistent confidence in food (or water. Hazard analysis, the first of the seven principles of HACCP, assesses physical, microbial, chemical, and radioactive hazards. This study focuses on the chemicals that are most likely to be involved in major hazardous events. Pollutant release and transfer register (PRTR data were used to analyze potential risks of chemicals. A PRTR is a national environmental database of potentially hazardous chemicals. Potential risk analysis considers the total amount of chemicals transferred off-site for treatment or disposal. Fifty-five cities and the top 10 chemicals released in the Nakdong River basin were investigated. Potential risk was defined as a function of total transfers, the relative distance, and toxicity. The top 10 cities with high potential risks were identified, and the city with the highest potential risk turned out to be Ulju.

  16. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  17. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Seven studies had high quality, 35 moderate and the rest poor quality. The accuracy of multivariate models was higher for pre-school children than for schoolchildren/adolescents. However, the models had seldom been validated in independent populations, making their accuracy uncertain. Of the single...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited...

  18. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in severely burned patients: a case-control study to assess risk factors, causes, and outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Jin; Koh, Dong Hee; Park, Se Woo; Park, Sun Man; Choi, Min Ho; Jang, Hyun Joo; Kae, Sea Hyub; Lee, Jin; Byun, Hyun Woo

    2014-01-01

    To determine the risk factors, causes, and outcome of clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding that occurs in severely burned patients. The charts of all patients admitted to the burn intensive care unit were analyzed retrospectively over a 4-year period (from January 2006 to December 2009). Cases consisted of burned patients who developed upper gastrointestinal bleeding more than 24 hours after admission to the burn intensive care unit. Controls were a set of patients, in the burn intensive care unit, without upper gastrointestinal bleeding matched with cases for age and gender. Cases and controls were compared with respect to the risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and outcomes. During the study period, clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding occurred in 20 patients out of all 964 patients. The most common cause of upper gastrointestinal bleeding was duodenal ulcer (11 of 20 cases, 55%). In the multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation (p = 0.044) and coagulopathy (p = 0.035) were found to be the independent predictors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in severely burned patients. Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage tends to occur more frequently after having prolonged mechanical ventilation and coagulopathy.

  19. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  20. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  1. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  2. Assessing the Risk of Oral Cancer associated with Gutka and Other Smokeless Tobacco Products: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awan, K H; Hussain, Q A; Patil, Shankargouda; Maralingannavar, Mahesh

    2016-09-01

    Tobacco and tobacco-related products have been attributed to be causative factors for oral cancer. Newer, chewable, and commercially available smokeless tobacco (ST) products, such as gutka pose further threat in this direction. The aim of the study was to evaluate the risk of oral cancer associated with gutka and other ST products. A case-control study of 134 cases and 134 controls, over a period of 6 months (July-December 2014), was carried out at the Baqai University, Karachi, Pakistan. An interview-based questionnaire was used to collect data on sociodemographic characteristics, oral hygiene practices and type, duration, and frequency of use of tobacco-related products. Data were analyzed using the Pearson's chi-square (χ(2)) test with the level of significance set as p products [odds ratio (OR) 5.54; 95% CI 2.83-10.83; p products also showed 2 to 4 times higher odds ratio of developing oral cancer than compared to those who did not consume these products. The study provided strong evidence that gutka and other ST products are independent risk factors for oral cancer. This study highlights the strong association of different types of ST and oral cancer. This results in identification of high-risk groups for targeted screening for potential oral cancer lesions.

  3. Assessment of environmental risk for red mud storage facility in China: a case study in Shandong Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhi-Chao; Ma, Shu-Hua; Zheng, Shi-Li; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Yan

    2016-06-01

    Red mud storage facility (RM-SF) pollution remains a serious problem in China mainly due to the RM's huge quantity, little recyclability, and high alkalinity. And, there is also a risk of dam failure because almost all RM-SFs are processed by damming. In order to address this challenge and improve the level of risk management, it is necessary to evaluate the environmental risk of RM-SFs systematically. So, this paper firstly designs a comprehensive evaluation index system with a three-level evaluation index in the terms of RM characteristics, RM-SF characteristics, ambient environment of RM-SF, the management of RM-SF, and the application aspect of RM by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Then, a case of RM-SF from a typical alumina production enterprise is studied according to this system, as is assisted by several experts from different fields when determining the weights of all indicators. The results show that the risk of selected RM-SF primarily depends on the former factors, that is, RM and RM-SF characteristics, while the contributions of the other factors are quite smaller.

  4. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  5. The assessment of risk factors for the Central/East African Genotype of chikungunya virus infections in the state of Kelantan: a case control study in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Ahmad Faudzi; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Husaain, Hani Mat; Hamzah, Wan Mansor; Yusof, Apandi Mohd; Harun, Rozilawati; Abdullah, Faezah Noor

    2013-05-08

    The aims of the study were to assess the risk factors in relation to cross border activities, exposure to mosquito bite and preventive measures taken.An outbreak of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection in Malaysia has been reported in Klang, Selangor (1998) and Bagan Panchor, Perak (2006). In 2009, CHIKV infection re-emerged in some states in Malaysia. It raises the possibilities that re-emergence is part of the epidemics in neighbouring countries or the disease is endemic in Malaysia. For this reason, A community-based case control study was carried out in the state of Kelantan. Prospective case finding was performed from June to December 2009. Those who presented with signs and symptoms of CHIKV infection were investigated. We designed a case control study to assess the risk factors. Assessment consisted of answering questions, undergoing a medical examination, and being tested for the presence of IgM antibodies to CHIKV. Descriptive epidemiological studies were conducted by reviewing both the national surveillance and laboratory data. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors contributing to the illness. Cases were determined by positive to RT-PCR or serological for antibodies by IgM. CHIKV specificity was confirmed by DNA sequencing. There were 129 suspected cases and 176 controls. Among suspected cases, 54.4% were diagnosed to have CHIKV infection. Among the controls, 30.1% were found to be positive to serology for antibodies [IgM, 14.2% and IgG, 15.9%]. For analytic study and based on laboratory case definition, 95 were considered as cases and 123 as controls. Those who were positive to IgG were excluded. CHIKV infection affected all ages and mostly between 50-59 years old. Staying together in the same house with infected patients and working as rubber tappers were at a higher risk of infection. The usage of Mosquito coil insecticide had shown to be a significant protective factor. Most cases were treated as outpatient

  6. Risk assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid: a case study of the 2014 Ludian earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ben-Yong; Nie, Gao-Zhong; Su, Gui-Wu; Sun, Lei

    2017-04-01

    China is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. The priority during earthquake emergency response is saving lives and minimizing casualties. Rapid judgment of the trapped location is the important basis for government to reasonable arrange the emergency rescue forces and resources after the earthquake. Through analyzing the key factors resulting in people trapped, we constructed an assessment model of personal trapped (PTED)in collapsed buildings caused by earthquake disaster. Then taking the 2014 Ludian Earthquake as a case, this study evaluated the distribution of trapped personal during this earthquake using the assessment model based on km grid data. Results showed that, there are two prerequisites for people might be trapped by the collapse of buildings in earthquake: earthquake caused buildings collapse and there are people in building when building collapsing; the PTED model could be suitable to assess the trapped people in collapsed buildings caused by earthquake. The distribution of people trapped by the collapse of buildings in the Ludian earthquake assessed by the model is basically the same as that obtained by the actual survey. Assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid can meet the requirements of search-and-rescue zone identification and rescue forces allocation in the early stage of the earthquake emergency. In future, as the basic data become more complete, assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid should provide more accurate and valid suggestions for earthquake emergency search and rescue.

  7. Use of read-across and tiered exposure assessment in risk assessment under REACH - A case study on a phase-in substance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, S.R.; Mikkers, J.; Bouwman, T.; Marquart, H.; Kroese, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    REACH requests the exploration of alternative strategies for hazard identification before resorting to (in vivo) testing. Here, we combined read-across as non-testing strategy with a tiered exposure assessment for the risk characterisation of 1-methoxypropan-2-ol (PGME) as a representative for phase

  8. Use of read-across and tiered exposure assessment in risk assessment under REACH - A case study on a phase-in substance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, S.R.; Mikkers, J.; Bouwman, T.; Marquart, H.; Kroese, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    REACH requests the exploration of alternative strategies for hazard identification before resorting to (in vivo) testing. Here, we combined read-across as non-testing strategy with a tiered exposure assessment for the risk characterisation of 1-methoxypropan-2-ol (PGME) as a representative for

  9. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  10. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Contamination and risk assessment of heavy metals in soils irrigated with biogas slurry: a case study of Taihu basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Bo; Wu, Hai suo; Zhou, Ling jun

    2015-04-01

    The accumulation of heavy metals in different soils resulting from irrigation with biogas slurry obtained from Taihu basin may create a potential public health risk. We quantified the concentration of heavy metals (Zn, Pb, Cu, Cr, As, and Cd.) in soils. Results indicated that the concentrations of Ni, Zn, Cd, and Pb in soil exceeded the maximum permitted levels set by Chinese Soil Environmental Quality Standard (GB15618-2008). The highest mean level in the soil was noted for Zn, followed by Zn, Pb, Cu, Cr, As, and Cd, while maximum geoaccumulation index (Igeo) was found for Cd in all soil samples which ranged from strongly polluted to extremely polluted. Pollution levels varied with metals and soil types. Moreover, the concentrations of Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb in soils showed significant correlations with OM; pH showed positive correlations with Cd, Cu, As, and Cr; pH and OM were the most important factors controlling the uptake of heavy metals by soils. Multivariate principal component analysis showed anthropogenic contributions of Zn, Pb, Cu, As, and Cd in the different kinds of soils. The target hazard quotient (HQ) values of six metals in soils were less than 1, which suggested that non-carcinogenic risks of metal exposure to soils were generally assumed to be safe. The assessment results of carcinogenic risks in soils showed higher risks than an acceptable range of 1E-06 to 1E-04 that would pose potential cancer risks to the farmers due to the work of leafy and root vegetables grown locally.

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  14. Resilience vs soft crisis: dynamic risk assessment in complex hybrid systems. Case history of Ginosa (Taranto, Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, Alessandro; Argentiero, Ilenia; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Pellicani, Roberta; Spilotro, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    Considering a natural system without human-induced modifications, its resilience can be altered by many natural drivers (e.g. geological characteristics, climate) and their spatial modifications over time. Therefore, natural hazardous phenomena could shift natural system over tipping points in an easier or more difficult way. So long as natural system does not involve human settlements or transport infrastructures, natural system risk assessment could not be a basic topic. Nowadays, human activities have modified many natural systems forming, as a result, hybrid systems (both human and natural), in which natural and human-induced drivers modify hybrid systems vulnerability in order to decrease or increase their resilience: scientists define this new age Anthropocene. In this context, dynamic risk assessment of hybrid systems is required in order to avoid disaster when hazardous phenomena occur, but it is a quite complex issue. In fact, soft crisis emerging signals are difficult to identify because of wrong risk perception and lack of communication. Furthermore, natural and human-induced modifications are rarely registered and supervised by governments, so it is fairly difficult defining how systems resilience changes over time. Inhabitants of Ginosa (Taranto, South of Italy) had modified many old rock dwellings over thousand years since the Middle Ages. Indeed, they had built up three-storey houses on three hypogeum levels of rock dwellings along the ravine. The Matrice street collapse in Ginosa is an example of how natural and human-induced spatial modifications over time had led a soft crisis to evolve in a disaster, fortunately without fatalities. This research aim is to revisit events before the Matrice street collapse on the 21st January 2014. The will is to define the relationship between the hybrid system resilience and soft crisis variation over time and how human and natural drivers were involved in the shift.

  15. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  16. Assessment of desertification risk in semi-arid Mediterranean environments: the case study of Apulia region (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladisa, Gaetano; Todorovic, Mladen; Trisorio Liuzzi, Giuliana

    2010-05-01

    This work focuses on the risk assessment of the areas threatened with desertification in the semi-arid Mediterranean environments. The presented approach uses as a reference the ESAs model (Environmental Sensitive Areas to Desertification; Kosmas et al., 1999) which is modified through a set of new indicators which take into account the region-specific environmental characteristics as well as identifiable parameters relevant for planning control measures. These supplementary indicators, comprehending socio-economic and environmental factors, are integrated in the ESAs model and, by using a GIS, applied to Apulia region (Southern Italy). This area represents a typical Mediterranean landscape affected by land degradation and desertification risks. The analyses include the elaboration of the whole set of indices on both the regional and the administrative scales which constitute the principal territorial units for the management of natural resources. The results have demonstrated that the introduction of the new indices has improved substantially the overall evaluation of the desertification risk in the Apulia region. The proposed approach permits not only the identification and refinement of different degrees of sensibility of an area to land degradation, but also the analyses of the factors affecting desertification and their evaluation in terms of spatial and temporal distribution. Moreover, the presented method is conceptually very simple and easy to implement from local to regional and national scale, and can be proposed as a methodology for the definition of priorities in adoption of strategies to mitigate desertification in the semi-arid Mediterranean environments. Key words: desertification risk, sensitivity areas, Apulia region, Mediterranean environment.

  17. Origin and assessment of groundwater pollution and associated health risk: a case study in an industrial park, northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peiyue; Wu, Jianhua; Qian, Hui; Lyu, Xinsheng; Liu, Hongwei

    2014-08-01

    Groundwater quality which relates closely to human health has become as important as its quantity due to the demand for safe water. In the present study, an entropy-weighted fuzzy water quality index (WQI) has been proposed for performing groundwater quality assessment in and around an industrial park, northwest China, where domestic water requirements are solely met by groundwater. The human health risk was assessed with the model recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, the sources of major ions and main contaminants were also analyzed. The study shows that groundwater in the study area has been contaminated conjunctively by natural processes and industrial and agricultural activities. Nitrate, manganese (Mn), fluoride, total dissolved solids, total hardness and sulfate are major contaminants influencing groundwater quality. Nitrate and heavy metals such as Mn are mainly affected by human agricultural activities and industrial production, while other contaminants are mainly originated from mineral weathering and water-rock interactions. The results of water quality assessment suggest that half of the groundwater samples collected are of medium quality thus require pretreatment before human consumption. The mean health risk caused by the consumption of contaminated groundwater in the area is 8.42 × 10(-5) per year which surpasses the maximum acceptable level (5 × 10(-5) per year) recommended by the International Commission on Radiologic Protection. The entropy-weighted fuzzy WQI proposed in this study can not only assign proper weights to parameters but also treat uncertainties associated with water quality classification. This study will be of interest to international environmentalists and hydrogeologists. It will also be useful in regional groundwater management and protection.

  18. Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng J

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ji Cheng,1,2 Alfonso Iorio,2,3 Maura Marcucci,4 Vadim Romanov,5 Eleanor M Pullenayegum,6,7 John K Marshall,3,8 Lehana Thabane1,2 1Biostatistics Unit, St Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton, 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 3Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 4Geriatrics, Fondazione Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy; 5Baxter HealthCare, Global Medical Affairs, Westlake Village, CA, USA; 6Child Health Evaluation Sciences, Hospital for Sick Children, 7Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, 8Division of Gastroenterology, Hamilton Health Science, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Developing inhibitors is a rare event during the treatment of hemophilia A. The multifacets and uncertainty surrounding the development of inhibitors further complicate the process of estimating inhibitor rate from the limited data. Bayesian statistical modeling provides a useful tool in generating, enhancing, and exploring the evidence through incorporating all the available information.Methods: We built our Bayesian analysis using three study cases to estimate the inhibitor rates of patients with hemophilia A in three different scenarios: Case 1, a single cohort of previously treated patients (PTPs or previously untreated patients; Case 2, a meta-analysis of PTP cohorts; and Case 3, a previously unexplored patient population – patients with baseline low-titer inhibitor or history of inhibitor development. The data used in this study were extracted from three published ADVATE (antihemophilic factor [recombinant] is a product of Baxter for treating hemophilia A post-authorization surveillance studies. Noninformative and informative priors were applied to Bayesian standard (Case 1 or random-effects (Case 2 and Case 3 logistic models. Bayesian probabilities of satisfying three meaningful thresholds of the risk of developing a clinical

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment and nuclear waste transportation: A case study of the use of RADTRAN in the 1986 Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resnikoff, M. [Radioactive Waste Management Associates, New York, NY (United States)

    1990-12-01

    The analysis of the risks of transporting irradiated nuclear fuel to a federal repository, Appendix A of the DOE Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain (DOE84), is based on the RADTRAN model and input parameters. The RADTRAN computer code calculates the radiation exposures and health effects under normal or incident-free transport, and over all credible accident conditions. The RADTRAN model also calculates the economic consequences of transportation accidents, though these costs were not included in the Department`s Environmental Assessment for the proposed Yucca Mountain repository.

  20. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  1. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  2. Socio-cognitive exposure and risk assessment: The case of mobile phones; Exposition sociocognitive et evaluation des risques: le cas de la telephonie mobile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poumadere, M. [Institut Symlog, Gouvernance des risques, 262 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris (France); Perrin, A. [Institut de recherches biomedicales des armees, CRSSA Grenoble, Departement de radiobiologie, 24 avenue des Maquis du Gresivaudan, 38700 La Tronche (France)

    2011-01-15

    Mobile telephone technology is characterized by spectacular global expansion. In a corollary manner, radio frequencies have become omnipresent in the public and private environment, as the physical basis for mobile communications, and as something that has entered the awareness of a vast number of persons. This dual nature of radio frequencies means that population concerns have been taken into account in the risk assessment process. Against this background, we first examine the principle of separation between assessment, evaluation and management of risk. We then consider several categories of exposure. The concept of socio-cognitive exposure is proposed, to address the possible effects of chronic exposure of populations to alarming information when various health effects of radio frequencies are discussed. This approach specifies the role of information as an intermediary between environment and health. Applied to the case of radio frequencies, such a conceptual approach could result in redefining such terms as vulnerable populations, extreme situations and protective measures. (authors)

  3. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  4. Assessment of Industry-Induced Urban Human Health Risks Related to Benzo[a]pyrene based on a Multimedia Fugacity Model: Case Study of Nanjing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linyu Xu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Large amounts of organic pollutants emitted from industries have accumulated and caused serious human health risks, especially in urban areas with rapid industrialization. This paper focused on the carcinogen benzo[a]pyrene (BaP from industrial effluent and gaseous emissions, and established a multi-pathway exposure model based on a Level IV multimedia fugacity model to analyze the human health risks in a city that has undergone rapid industrialization. In this study, GIS tools combined with land-use data was introduced to analyze smaller spatial scales so as to enhance the spatial resolution of the results. An uncertainty analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation was also conducted to illustrate the rationale of the probabilistic assessment mode rather than deterministic assessment. Finally, the results of the case study in Nanjing, China indicated the annual average human cancer risk induced by local industrial emissions during 2002–2008 (lowest at 1.99´10–6 in 2008 and highest at 3.34´10–6 in 2004, which was lower than the USEPA prescriptive level (1´10–6–1´10–4 but cannot be neglected in the long term. The study results could not only instruct the BaP health risk management but also help future health risk prediction and control.

  5. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  6. Assessment of Industry-Induced Urban Human Health Risks Related to Benzo[a]pyrenebased on a Multimedia Fugacity Model: Case Study of Nanjing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Linyu; Song, Huimin; Wang, Yan; Yin, Hao

    2015-05-29

    Large amounts of organic pollutants emitted from industries have accumulated and caused serious human health risks, especially in urban areas with rapid industrialization. This paper focused on the carcinogen benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) from industrial effluent and gaseous emissions, and established a multi-pathway exposure model based on a Level IV multimedia fugacity model to analyze the human health risks in a city that has undergone rapid industrialization. In this study, GIS tools combined with land-use data was introduced to analyze smaller spatial scales so as to enhance the spatial resolution of the results. An uncertainty analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation was also conducted to illustrate the rationale of the probabilistic assessment mode rather than deterministic assessment. Finally, the results of the case study in Nanjing, China indicated the annual average human cancer risk induced by local industrial emissions during 2002-2008 (lowest at 1.99x10(-6) in 2008 and highest at 3.34x10(-6) in 2004), which was lower than the USEPA prescriptive level (1x10(-6)-1x10(-4)) but cannot be neglected in the long term. The study results could not only instruct the BaP health risk management but also help future health risk prediction and control.

  7. MODIS Imagery Improves Pest Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Wheat Stem Sawfly (Cephus cinctus, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in Colorado, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestina, Jordan; Cook, Maxwell; Kumar, Sunil; Morisette, Jeffrey; Ode, Paul J; Peairs, Frank

    2016-12-01

    Wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) has long been a significant insect pest of spring, and more recently, winter wheat in the northern Great Plains. Wheat stem sawfly was first observed infesting winter wheat in Colorado in 2010 and, subsequently, has spread rapidly throughout wheat production regions of the state. Here, we used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to generate habitat suitability maps in order to predict the risk of crop damage as this species spreads throughout the winter wheat-growing regions of Colorado. We identified environmental variables that influence the current distribution of wheat stem sawfly in the state and evaluated whether remotely sensed variables improved model performance. We used presence localities of C. cinctus and climatic, topographic, soils, and normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery as environmental variables. All models had high performance in that they were successful in predicting suitable habitat for C. cinctus in its current distribution in eastern Colorado. The enhanced vegetation index for the month of April improved model performance and was identified as a top contributor to MaxEnt model. Soil clay percent at 0-5 cm, temperature seasonality, and precipitation seasonality were also associated with C. cinctus distribution in Colorado. The improved model performance resulting from integrating vegetation indices in our study demonstrates the ability of remote sensing technologies to enhance species distribution modeling. These risk maps generated can assist managers in planning control measures for current infestations and assess the future risk of C. cinctus establishment in currently uninfested regions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  9. A Modified Soil Quality Index to Assess the Influence of Soil Degradation Processes on Desertification Risk: The Apulia Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Ancona

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Apulia is one of the most prone Italian regions to soil alteration phenomena, due to geographical and climatic conditions and also to human activities’ impact. In this study, in order to investigate regional soil degradation processes, following the “European Directive for Soil Protection”, the ESA’s method has been adopted. It is based on the use of an indicator’s set to assess the desertification risk. This approach simplifies the diagnosis and monitoring of soil degradation processes, defining their status and trend. Special attention has been given to Soil Quality Index (SQI determined by six predisposing indicators (parent material, soil texture, rock fragment, soil depth, drainage and slope grade. The integration in the SQI calculation of two additional soil parameters (organic matter content and soil salinity has been considered particularly significant. In fact, through the evaluation of a so “modified SQI” and the Apulia land use too, it could be possible to assess the role of agriculture management on soil degradation processes, which predisposing regional area to desertification threat. Moreover this approach provides short, but accurate, information thanks to GIS integration, which defines phenomena in detail, offering helpful planning tools.

  10. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  11. Assessing environmental risks for high intensity agriculture using the material flow analysis method--a case study of the Dongting Lake basin in South Central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Yuan, Chengcheng

    2015-07-01

    This study primarily examined the assessment of environmental risk in high intensity agricultural areas. Dongting Lake basin was taken as a case study, which is one of the major grain producing areas in China. Using data obtained from 1989 to 2012, we applied Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to show the material consumption, pollutant output and production storage in the agricultural-environmental system and assessed the environmental risk index on the basis of the MFA results. The results predicted that the status of the environmental quality of the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The direct material input (DMI) declined by 13.9%, the domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 28.21%, the intensity of material consumption (IMC) decreased by 36.7%, the intensity of material discharge (IMD) increased by 10%, the material productivity (MP) increased by 27 times, the environmental efficiency (EE) increased by 15.31 times, and the material storage (PAS) increased by 0.23%. The DMI and DPO was higher at rural places on the edge of cities, whereas the risk of urban agriculture has arisen due to the higher increasing rate of DMI and DPO in cities compared with the counties. The composite environmental risk index increased from 0.33 to 0.96, indicating that the total environmental risk changed gradually but seriously during the 24 years assessed. The driving factors that affect environmental risk in high intensity agriculture can be divided into five classes: social, economic, human, natural and disruptive incidents. This study discussed a number of effective measures for protecting the environment while ensuring food production yields. Additional research in other areas and certain improvements of this method in future studies may be necessary to develop a more effective method of managing and controlling agricultural-environmental interactions.

  12. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  13. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  14. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  15. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  16. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  17. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  18. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  19. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  20. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  2. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  3. Use of read-across and tiered exposure assessment in risk assessment under REACH--a case study on a phase-in substance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vink, S R; Mikkers, J; Bouwman, T; Marquart, H; Kroese, E D

    2010-10-01

    REACH requests the exploration of alternative strategies for hazard identification before resorting to (in vivo) testing. Here, we combined read-across as non-testing strategy with a tiered exposure assessment for the risk characterisation of 1-methoxypropan-2-ol (PGME) as a representative for phase-in substances to be registered under REACH. Read-across from the selected source substances provided data which were comparable with experimental data available for target substance PGME, resulting in a realistic starting point for both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Greater variability was observed in the exposure estimates from a first Tier model (ECETOC TRA) or less conservative further Tier models (Stoffenmanager; RISKOFDERM), when these results were compared with results from a data-rich approach using measured data. When safe use of chemicals cannot be demonstrated with these approaches, refinement can be introduced in the estimation of hazard and exposure, or both. In view of the variability associated with exposure modeling, it may often add more value to invest in realistic exposure data than in toxicity studies, apart from animal welfare considerations.

  4. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  5. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  6. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  7. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor.

  8. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  11. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  12. Comparison between three different LCIA methods for aquatic ecotoxicity and a product Environmental Risk Assessment – Insights from a Detergent Case Study within OMNIITOX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pant, Rana; Van Hoof, Geert; Feijtel, Tom

    2004-01-01

    set of physico-chemical and toxicological effect data to enable a better comparison of the methodological differences. For the same reason, the system boundaries were kept the same in all cases, focusing on emissions into water at the disposal stage. Results and Discussion. Significant differences...... ecotoxicity is not satisfactory, unless explicit reasons for the differences are identifiable. This can hamper practical decision support, as LCA practitioners usually will not be in a position to choose the 'right' LCIA method for their specific case. This puts a challenge to the entire OMNIITOX project......) with results from an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA). Material and Methods. The LCIA has been conducted with EDIP97 (chronic aquatic ecotoxicity) [1], USES-LCA (freshwater and marine water aquatic ecotoxicity, sometimes referred to as CML2001) [2, 3] and IMPACT 2002 (covering freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity...

  13. Screening for lifestyle and mental health risk factors in the waiting room: feasibility study of the Case-finding Health Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elley, Carolyn Raina; Dawes, Diana; Dawes, Martin; Price, Morgan; Draper, Haeli; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity

    2014-11-01

    To assess the feasibility and acceptability of administering the validated Case-finding Health Assessment Tool (CHAT) in Canadian family practice waiting rooms to identify risk factors for depression, anxiety, anger control,smoking, drinking, other drug use, gambling, exposure to abuse, and physical inactivity. Cross-sectional survey. One urban academic family practice and one inner-city community health centre in British Columbia. Convenience sample of consecutive adult patients (19 years of age or older) and their attending family physicians. Rates of completion; positive responses to and wanting help with identified lifestyle and mental health risk factors; rates of objections to any questions; and positive and negative comments about the CHAT by participating physicians and patients. A total of 265 eligible adults presented in the waiting rooms over 5 full days and 3 half-days, 176 (66%) of whom enrolled in the study; 161(91%) completed the CHAT, and 107 (66%) completed acceptability feedback forms. The prevalence of risk factors among patients in the academic and inner-city practice samples was different, with 20% and 63%, respectively,recording positive responses to both depression screening questions,34% and 60% positive for anxiety, 11% and 71% currently smoking, 6%and 22% feeling they needed to cut down on alcohol, 1% and 48% having used recreational drugs in the past year, and 11% and 65% with problems controlling anger. While many requested help with reducing risk factors,such as smoking (20%) and mental health symptoms (25% to 27%), a total of 35% (57 of 161) wanted help with an identified issue that day. Patients and physicians found the CHAT acceptable, with no patients objecting to any question except the alcohol question (2 objected). Most comments were positive. The CHAT allowed efficient identification of 9 risk factors, as well as identification of those wanting help. It could be used to screen all or targeted adult Canadian primary care patients

  14. Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

  15. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  17. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  18. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  19. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  20. Synopsis of the CASIROZ case study: carbon sink strength of Fagus sylvatica L. in a changing environment--experimental risk assessment of mitigation by chronic ozone impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyssek, R; Bahnweg, G; Ceulemans, R; Fabian, P; Grill, D; Hanke, D E; Kraigher, H; Osswald, W; Rennenberg, H; Sandermann, H; Tausz, M; Wieser, G

    2007-03-01

    Databases are needed for the ozone (O(3)) risk assessment on adult forest trees under stand conditions, as mostly juvenile trees have been studied in chamber experiments. A synopsis is presented here from an integrated case study which was conducted on adult FAGUS SYLVATICA trees at a Central-European forest site. Employed was a novel free-air canopy O(3) fumigation methodology which ensured a whole-plant assessment of O(3) sensitivity of the about 30 m tall and 60 years old trees, comparing responses to an experimental 2 x ambient O(3) regime (2 x O(3), max. 150 nl O(3) l (-1)) with those to the unchanged 1 x ambient O(3) regime (1 x O(3)=control) prevailing at the site. Additional experimentation on individual branches and juvenile beech trees exposed within the forest canopy allowed for evaluating the representativeness of young-tree and branch-bag approaches relative to the O(3) sensitivity of the adult trees. The 2 x O(3) regime did not substantially weaken the carbon sink strength of the adult beech trees, given the absence of a statistically significant decline in annual stem growth; a 3 % reduction across five years was demonstrated, however, through modelling upon parameterization with the elaborated database. 2 x O(3) did induce a number of statistically significant tree responses at the cell and leaf level, although the O(3) responsiveness varied between years. Shade leaves displayed an O(3) sensitivity similar to that of sun leaves, while indirect belowground O(3) effects, apparently mediated through hormonal relationships, were reflected by stimulated fine-root and ectomycorrhizal development. Juvenile trees were not reliable surrogates of adult ones in view of O(3) risk assessment. Branch sections enclosed in (climatized) cuvettes, however, turned out to represent the O(3) sensitivity of entire tree crowns. Drought-induced stomatal closure decoupled O(3) intake from O(3) exposure, as in addition, also the "physiologically effective O(3) dose" was

  1. Developing risk hypotheses and selecting species for assessing non-target impacts of GM trees with novel traits: the case of altered-lignin pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Louise A; Todd, Jacqui H; Burgess, Elisabeth P J; Walter, Christian; Wagner, Armin; Barratt, Barbara I P

    2010-01-01

    A procedure is presented for developing environmental risk hypotheses associated with the deployment of forest trees genetically modified to have altered wood properties and for selecting non-target species to test these hypotheses. Altered-lignin Pinus radiata trees intended for use in New Zealand are used as a hypothetical case study to illustrate our approach. Firstly, environmental management goals (such as wood production, flood control or preservation of biodiversity) were identified and linked to the forest attributes they require. Necessary conditions for each attribute were listed and appropriate assessment endpoints for them developed. For example, biological control of pests may be one condition necessary for a forest to have healthy trees, and the diversity and abundance of natural enemy species in the forest could be an appropriate assessment endpoint for measuring this condition. A conceptual model describing the relationships between an altered-lignin GM pine tree and potentially affected invertebrates and micro-organisms in a plantation forest was used to develop a set of risk hypotheses describing how the GM trees might affect each assessment endpoint. Because purified lignin does not represent the properties it imparts to wood, maximum hazard dose tests with non-target organisms, as are used to inform toxin risk assessment, cannot be conducted. Alternative experiments, based on current knowledge of the responses of organisms to lignin, must be designed. A screening method was adapted and applied to a database of invertebrate species known to inhabit New Zealand pine forests to identify and prioritize non-target invertebrate species that could be used as experimental subjects for examining these hypotheses. The screening model and its application are presented, along with a set of recommendations for pre-release tests with GM pines and potentially affected invertebrates and micro-organisms.

  2. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments.

  3. Study on each phase characteristics of the whole coal life cycle and their ecological risk assessment-a case of coal in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Wenting; Dong, Jihong; Yan, Wanglin; Xu, Jiren

    2017-01-01

    The paper divided the whole coal life cycle, explained each phase characteristics, and took coal mine in China as a study case to assess the ecological risk in coal utilization phase. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the whole coal life cycle is divided into coal mining, processing, transportation, utilization, and waste disposal. (2) The key points of production organization and characteristics in the five phases have great differences. The coal mining phase is characterized by the damage of the key ecological factors (water, soil, atmosphere, vegetation, etc.) damaged while the coal processing phase by discharging waste. The characteristics in coal transportation phase mainly performance as escaping and migration of atmospheric pollutants. In coal utilization phase, the main characteristics are aggravation of greenhouse effect. The main characteristics of waste disposal phase are accumulation of negative ecological effects on the land. (3) The ecological risk of soil heavy metals is serious in coal utilization phase. The potential ecological hazard coefficients of Pb and As in coal, residue and ash are all lower than 40, presenting low environmental impact on soil; the potential ecological risk coefficients of Cd are higher than 60, nearly half of their potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 160, which presents high environmental pollution impact on soil; Hg's potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 320, presenting the highest environmental pollution impact on soil; the comprehensive pollution indexes in coal, residue, and ash are relatively high, which means the pollution hazard potential to soil environment is high. (4) The ecological risk of the atmospheric solid suspended matter is relatively strong in coal utilization phase. The ecological risk of Cd and As in primary flue gas is both lower than net flue gas. The geoaccumulation indexes of Cd and Hg in primary flue gas and net flue gas are both higher than 5, presenting

  4. Assessment of geomorphic risks and attractiveness to recreational systems: a case of Nalychevo Nature Park (Kamchatka, Russia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinova, I.; Bredikhin, A.

    2012-04-01

    . "Volcanoes of Kamchatka" are included on UNESCO's World Heritage List. In spite of general fame of Far East recreational resources there are still areas which are not affected by human activities (including recreation and tourism) in immediate proximity to the regional center. This is usually caused by poor infrastructure and lack of information about natural objects. Natural Park Nalychevo, located 50 km NE from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, represents an example of wild area not involved in human activities. The diversity of natural conditions and relief forms creates the necessary prerequisites for assignment a wide range of recreation specialization: balneal, hillwalking, sports (skiing, hiking etc.), environmental education. Hierarchical polycentric structure of Nature Park hampers its management and further development. Moreover, poor infrastructure aggravates the situation. Speaking of prospects for further elaboration of Nature Park, along with high geomorphic attractiveness we should take into account enormous risks induced by active relief dynamics. Sober assessment and analysis of these peculiarities allows to manage it effectively.

  5. Study on Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment System of Northern Henan:A Case Study of Huixian City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinjian; ZHU; Xinzhou; ZANG; Shiping; Duan; Huailiang; CHEN

    2013-01-01

    Based on the meteorological data and geological disaster information of Huixian in northern Henan during 1961-2009, four disaster-inducing factors like rainstorm, hail, gale and geological disasters were analyzed, and then a meteorological disaster risk evaluation index system was established to zone meteorological disaster risk, finally the meteorological disaster risk zoning map was obtained. The results show that rainstorm, hail and geographical disasters appeared more frequently in mountains than plains; on the contrary, gale occurred more frequently in plains. These conclusions could provide scientific and technological support and theoretical foundation for preventing meteorological disasters in Huixian.

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN CASE OF ACCIDENTS WITH OIL ON RAILWAY TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Zelenko

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The principles of estimation of losses to the environment components caused by the emergency spills of petroleum products and the methodical approaches to estimation of ecological risk of functioning of railways are offered.

  7. Health risk assessment as an approach to manage an old landfill and to propose integrated solid waste treatment: A case study in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paladino, O; Massabò, M

    2017-07-21

    The aim of the present paper is to show how an approach based on human health risk analysis can be used as a decisional tool for the evaluation of impacts on population and for deciding between different waste treatment processes. The situation in which the increasing production of solid wastes cannot be confined in the old existing Municipal Solid Waste landfill (settled in Genoa, Liguria Region, Italy) is used as a case study. Risk assessment for human health due to air, surface water, groundwater and soil contamination is performed in different scenarios for the old landfill and compared with alternative Waste-to-Energy management solutions that consider thermal treatment by gasification of the total waste or gasification of the dry fraction coupled with anaerobic digestion of the wet fraction, plus biogas combustion with or without sludge and bottom ash/slag disposal in the old landfill. Hazard Index (HI) and Cancer Risk (CR) in case of operating landfill and under the suspected situation of failure of the sealing system, were respectively 1.15 and 1.1∗10(-7). Unacceptable HI were found due to groundwater contamination, while HI due to river pollution was slightly under the threshold. Vegetables ingestion was the most important pathway and ammonia the most responsible of toxic adverse effects. Fish ingestion and dermal contact with contaminated water were found to be the most important exposure pathways for carcinogenic risk, due mainly to BTEX. HI and CR in the supposed scenario of total waste gasification were respectively 9.4∗10(-1) and 1.1∗10(-5) while they were respectively 3.2∗10(-1) and 6∗10(-6) in case of gasification of the dry fraction. CR in both scenarios was over the threshold mainly due to dioxins, where milk and meat ingestion were found to be the highest risk pathways. Inhalation resulted as the highest not-carcinogenic risk exposure pathway, mainly due to NOx. Decision making was made by weighing up the different scenarios, and

  8. An empirical study on open position risk assessment using VAR and regression analysis: A case study of Iranian banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elmira Mahmoudzadeh

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, there have been tremendous fluctuations on different currencies. For instance, European common currency, Euro, has be fluctuated between 0.60 to 0.9 against US dollar. Therefore, it is important to study the behavior of currency valuations using different techniques. In this paper, we present an empirical study to measure the impact of different items on risk of foreign currency using value at risk (VaR and regression methods. The proposed model of this paper investigates whether the risk of open positions of six foreign currencies including US dollar, Euro, British Pound, Switzerland Frank, Norwegian Kroner and United Emirate Dirham increase during the time horizon. The proposed study of this paper uses historical daily prices of these currencies for a fiscal year of 2011 in one of private banks located in Iran and measures the relative risk. The results of the implementation of two methods of VaR and linear regression indicate that the risk of open positions increases during the time horizon.

  9. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  10. ANTHROPIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON BIODIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niche...

  11. Value of case studies in disaster assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grynszpan, Delphine; Murray, Virginia; Llosa, Silvia

    2011-06-01

    Case studies can be useful in assessing and learning lessons from emergency situations. In this paper, different uses for disaster case studies, are explored with identification of potential pitfalls that should be avoided. In addition, ways to improve the rigor and significance of case studies are suggested. Case studies can be used as examples or as a research tool. If conducted properly, they can provide robust and compelling results. It is argued that sharing a common guide to conducting and writing case studies among all disaster risk reduction professionals could improve the quality of case study reports and thereby strengthen their value in advancing the prevention, preparedness, and management of disasters and emergencies.

  12. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  13. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  14. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strunz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

    The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  15. A Structural Framework to Assess the Influence of CSFS on Risk Management Case Study: Oil and Gas Sector in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Banasadegh

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available With regard to changing business environment over the last two decades, risk management has become a main area of business practice to define, analyse and control uncertainties. It necessitates identifying critical areas of planning and actions which must be considered to achieve effectiveness named Critical Success Factors (CSFs. The aim of this study is to classify and prioritize the CSFs necessary for risk management in oil and gas sector in Iran. In order to do the research a comprehensive set of CSFs were selected in the existing streams of research. Accordingly ten CSFs were identified named commitment and support, communication, culture, structure, IT, process management, resources, training, strategy and measurement. The quantitative method was employed in data collection by using questionnaire. Then to evaluate the influence of each CSF on risk management, an empirical study was conducted by Principal Components Analysis (PCA by using SPSS package to classify CSFs and extract main factors. The CSFs are categorized into three components; management, operation and context. Then, the extent to which each CSF impacts on risk was measured through a structural model by using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA by applying Smart PLS package. Consequently, the obtained results indicated that two components; management and context had eigen value greater than one, acceptable reliability (Cronbach’s alpha and Dillion-Goldstein's ρ (D.G.'s ρ >0.7 and validity (AVE>0.5.( Furthermore, this framework showed a satisfactory fitness (GoF = 0.76. This study provides with top managers key insight into the CSFs influencing risk management to proper resource allocation.

  16. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  17. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  18. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  19. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  2. Assessing, mapping and validating site-specific ecotoxicological risk for pesticide mixtures: a case study for small scale hot spots in aquatic and terrestrial environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaj, Claudia; Barmaz, Stefania; Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Spurgeon, David; Vighi, Marco

    2011-11-01

    Mixture toxicity is a real world problem and as such requires risk assessment solutions that can be applied within different geographic regions, across different spatial scales and in situations where the quantity of data available for the assessment varies. Moreover, the need for site specific procedures for assessing ecotoxicological risk for non-target species in non-target ecosystems also has to be recognised. The work presented in the paper addresses the real world effects of pesticide mixtures on natural communities. Initially, the location of risk hotspots is theoretically estimated through exposure modelling and the use of available toxicity data to predict potential community effects. The concept of Concentration Addition (CA) is applied to describe responses resulting from exposure of multiple pesticides The developed and refined exposure models are georeferenced (GIS-based) and include environmental and physico-chemical parameters, and site specific information on pesticide usage and land use. As a test of the risk assessment framework, the procedures have been applied on a suitable study areas, notably the River Meolo basin (Northern Italy), a catchment characterised by intensive agriculture, as well as comparative area for some assessments. Within the studied areas, the risks for individual chemicals and complex mixtures have been assessed on aquatic and terrestrial aboveground and belowground communities. Results from ecological surveys have been used to validate these risk assessment model predictions. Value and limitation of the approaches are described and the possibilities for larger scale applications in risk assessment are also discussed.

  3. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  4. FEAT - Flash Environmental Assessment Tool to identify acute environmental risks following disasters. The tool, the explanation and a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk S; Brand E; de Zwart D; Posthuma L; Middelaar J van; IMG

    2009-01-01

    Voor veldteams van de Verenigde Naties die bij (natuur)rampen worden ingezet is de methode Flash Environmental Assessment Tool (FEAT) ontwikkeld. Hiermee kan worden ingeschat in welk gebied effecten van vrijgekomen chemische stoffen voor mens en milieu te verwachten zijn. De methode geeft aan welk

  5. An integrative risk assessment approach for persistent chemicals: a case study on dioxins, furans and dioxin-like PCBs in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béchaux, Camille; Zeilmaker, Marco; Merlo, Mathilde; Bokkers, Bas; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-10-01

    For persistent chemicals slowly eliminated from the body, the accumulated concentration (body burden), rather than the daily exposure, is considered the proper starting point for the risk assessment. This work introduces an integrative approach for persistent chemical risk assessment by means of a dynamic body burden approach. To reach this goal a Kinetic Dietary Exposure Model (KDEM) was extended with the long term time trend in the exposure (historic exposure) and the comparison of bioaccumulation with body burden references for toxicity. The usefulness of the model was illustrated on the dietary exposure to PolyChlorinatedDibenzo-p-Dioxins (PCDDs), PolyChlorinatedDibenzoFurans (PCDFs) and PolyChlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in France. Firstly the dietary exposure to these compounds was determined in 2009 and combined with its long term time trend. In order to take differences between the kinetics of PCDD/F and dl-PCBs into account, three groups of congeners were considered i.e. PCDD/Fs, PCB 126 and remaining dl-PCBs. The body burden was compared with reference body burdens corresponding to reproductive, hepatic and thyroid toxicity. In the case of thyroid toxicity this comparison indicated that in 2009 the probability of the body burden to exceed its reference ranged from 2.8% (95% CI: 1.5-4.9%) up to 3.9% (95% CI: 2.7-7.1%) (18-29 vs. 60-79year olds). Notwithstanding the decreasing long-term time trend of the dietary dioxin exposure in France, this probability still is expected to be 1.5% (95% CI: 0.3-2.5%) in 2030 in 60-79 olds. In the case of reproductive toxicity the probability of the 2009 body burden to exceed its reference ranged from 3.1% (95% CI: 1.4-5.0%) (18-29year olds) to 3.5% (95% CI: 2.2-5.2%) (30-44year olds). In 2030 this probability is negligible in 18-29year olds, however small though significant in 30-44year olds (0.7%, 95% CI: 0-1.6%). In the case of hepatic toxicity the probability in 2009 even in 60-79year olds already was negligible. In

  6. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    (recommendation levels A-D). RESULTS: Three SR, three guidelines, and five papers, not considered in previous SR, were identified and formed the base for the present summary and recommendations. One of the systematic reviews and three of the primary publications were of moderate risk of bias, while the rest......PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... with the AMSTAR tool and the primary publications according to the Cochrane handbook. The quality was rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. The findings were descriptively synthesised and the quality of evidence was graded according to GRADE. For the recommendations of practice, the SIGN scores were used...

  7. Assessment of the Risk of Suicide-Related Events Induced by Concomitant Use of Antidepressants in Cases of Smoking Cessation Treatment with Varenicline and Assessment of Latent Risk by the Use of Varenicline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akimoto, Hayato; Oshima, Shinji; Negishi, Akio; Ohara, Kousuke; Ohshima, Shigeru; Inoue, Naoko; Kobayashi, Daisuke

    2016-01-01

    Smoking Cessation Treatment (SCT) is a policy that has to be promoted for health economics, and expectations for the success of treatments with varenicline (VAR) are large. However, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have issued a warning on VAR-induced depression and suicide. In the present study, utilizing the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), we searched for antidepressants (ADs) used during SCT that cause fewer suicide-related events (SRE) (Study 1). We also investigated whether VAR concomitantly administered with ADs increases the risk of SRE (Study 2). In addition, we investigated whether the use of VAR alone is a latent risk factor of SRE. The backgrounds of cases with and without SRE were matched using the Propensity Score. In Study 1, the highest integrated Reporting Odds Ratio (iROR) was noted in concomitantly administered mirtazapine (iROR 6.98; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.57–30.99), while the lowest ratio was noted in concomitantly administered amitriptyline (iROR 0.59; iROR95%CI 0.23–1.50). Study 2 clarified that SCT increases the risk of SRE in AD-treated cases (iROR 8.02; iROR95%CI 5.47–11.76; not significance). Of ADs concomitantly used during SCT with VAR, amitriptyline and mirtazapine showed the lowest and highest risks, respectively (Study 1). It was clarified that concomitant use of VAR in the treatment of depression with ADs increased the risk of SRE (Study 2). The results of Studies 1 and 2 suggested that the use of VAR alone is a latent risk factor inducing suicide. PMID:27657721

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  11. Assessing the environmental risk from hot particles in the vicinity of Dounreay-a case for inaction?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, D [Enviros Consulting Limited, 61 The Shore, Leith, Edinburgh EH6 6RA (United Kingdom); Stone, D M [Enviros Consulting Limited, 61 The Shore, Leith, Edinburgh EH6 6RA (United Kingdom); Smith, K [Enviros Consulting Limited, 61 The Shore, Leith, Edinburgh EH6 6RA (United Kingdom); Morgan, G [UKAEA Dounreay, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7TZ (United Kingdom); Shimmield, T [Scottish Association for Marine Sciences, Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA (United Kingdom)

    2007-09-15

    This study assesses the impact on species other than humans associated with radioactive particles present in the marine environment close to the UKAEA Dounreay site, through a review of marine survey data, to establish the distribution of species and the likelihood of encountering a particle, and considering retention, dissolution or absorption of the particle. Assumptions are made regarding particle density, distribution, size and bio-availability of the radioactive materials. From this, impacts are assessed against the likelihood of mortality or other significant harm to individuals and interpreted in terms of local populations. Results obtained indicate that no significant impact, at the population level, is likely to be observed. This does not preclude that some individuals will be affected. It does, however, suggest that any decision to remediate, if based predominantly on environmental considerations, should be cognisant of the damage caused by remediation itself and subsequent exploitation of the environment by humans.

  12. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  13. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  14. Categorical Indicator Kriging for assessing the risk of groundwater nitrate pollution: the case of Vega de Granada aquifer (SE Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chica-Olmo, Mario; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Rivas, Lucía

    2014-02-01

    Groundwater nitrate pollution associated with agricultural activity is an important environmental problem in the management of this natural resource, as acknowledged by the European Water Framework Directive. Therefore, specific measures aimed to control the risk of water pollution by nitrates must be implemented to minimise its impact on the environment and potential risk to human health. The spatial probability distribution of nitrate contents exceeding a threshold or limit value, established within the quality standard, will be helpful to managers and decision-makers. A methodology based on non-parametric and non-linear methods of Indicator Kriging was used in the elaboration of a nitrate pollution categorical map for the aquifer of Vega de Granada (SE Spain). The map has been obtained from the local estimation of the probability that a nitrate content in an unsampled location belongs to one of the three categories established by the European Water Framework Directive: CL. 1 good quality [Min - 37.5 ppm], CL. 2 intermediate quality [37.5-50 ppm] and CL. 3 poor quality [50 ppm - Max]. The obtained results show that the areas exceeding nitrate concentrations of 50 ppm, poor quality waters, occupy more than 50% of the aquifer area. A great proportion of the area's municipalities are located in these poor quality water areas. The intermediate quality and good quality areas correspond to 21% and 28%, respectively, but with the highest population density. These results are coherent with the experimental data, which show an average nitrate concentration value of 72 ppm, significantly higher than the quality standard limit of 50 ppm. Consequently, the results suggest the importance of planning actions in order to control and monitor aquifer nitrate pollution. © 2013.

  15. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...

  16. Spatial variability and uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: a case study on the effect of cadmium for the little owl in a Dutch river foodplain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, L.; Huijbregts, M.J.A.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Wehrens, H.R.M.J.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper outlines a procedure that quantifies the impact of different sources of spatial variability and uncertainty on ecological risk estimates. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that estimates the risks of cadmium for a little owl (Athene noctua vidalli) living in a Dutch river flood

  17. Memory loss risk assessment for the students nearby high-voltage power lines-a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadamgahi, Mojgan; Monazzam, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Monireh

    2016-06-01

    With increasing sources of alternating current electromagnetic fields (EMFs) in everyday life, their possible harmful effects on human health are a main area of concern in many countries. Given that children are the most valuable assets of each country, it is of utmost importance to study the effect(s) of EMF exposure on various health aspects of members within this age group. The present research is the first systematic study of the effects of exposure to electric substations on the memory status of male students in the age group of 10 to 12 years. The flux density values of extremely low frequency magnetic field were measured at four elementary schools in Tehran in accordance with IEEE std 644-1994. The device was 3-axis (X, Y, and Z) Gauss Meter, model: TES-1394. The students from two schools nearby a high voltage electricity substation (at distances of 30 and 50 m) were selected as the exposed group, and the students of two other schools at further distances of 1390 and 610 m were considered as the control group. To determine the status of working memory in the students, the questionnaire was adapted from Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-IV). The completed questionnaires were analyzed by t test and chi-square using SPSS 20. The average magnetic flux density was 0.245 μT at case schools and 0.164 μT at control schools, P < 0.01. The demographic characteristics of the students in the two groups were not statistically different. However, the difference in working memory was significant at the level of 5 %. The results of the questionnaire data showed that students in the control group had better working memory compared to students in case group. The findings revealed a reverse correlation between magnetic flux density and working memory of students (R = -0.255). It is concluded that extremely low frequency magnetic field exposure may have a negative impact on the working memory of children, but further studies are necessary to reach a

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  20. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  1. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  2. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  3. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  4. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  5. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  6. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  7. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  8. Waterlogging risk assessment based on self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural networks: a case study of an urban storm in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LAI Wen-li; WANG Hong-rui; WANG Cheng; ZHANG Jie; ZHAO Yong

    2017-01-01

    Due to rapid urbanization,waterlogging induced by torrential rainfall has become a global concern and a potential risk affecting urban habitant's safety.Widespread waterlogging disasters have occurred almost annually in the urban area of Beijing,the capital of China.Based on a self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural network (ANN),a graded waterlogging risk assessment was conducted on 56 low-lying points in Beijing,China.Social risk factors,such as Gross domestic product (GDP),population density,and traffic congestion,were utilized as input datasets in this study.The results indicate that SOM-ANN is suitable for automatically and quantitatively assessing risks associated with waterlogging.The greatest advantage of SOM-ANN in the assessment of waterlogging risk is that a priori knowledge about classification categories and assessment indicator weights is not needed.As a result,SOM-ANN can effectively overcome interference from subjective factors,producing classification results that are more objective and accurate.In this paper,the risk level of waterlogging in Beijing was divided into five grades.The points that were assigned risk grades of Ⅳ or Ⅴ were located mainly in the districts of Chaoyang,Haidian,Xicheng,and Dongcheng.

  9. Assessing the Effects of the "Rocket Math" Program with a Primary Elementary School Student at Risk for School Failure: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Christina R.; Marchand-Martella, Nancy E.; Martella, Ronald C.

    2011-01-01

    This study assessed the effects of the "Rocket Math" program on the math fluency skills of a first grade student at risk for school failure. The student received instruction in the "Rocket Math" program over 6 months. He was assessed using a pre- and posttest curriculum-based measurement (CBM) and individualized fluency checkouts within the…

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...

  12. Cumulative health risk assessment of co-occurring mycotoxins of deoxynivalenol and its acetyl derivatives in wheat and maize: case study, Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zheng; Nie, Dongxia; Ediage, Emmanuel Njumbe; Yang, Xianli; Wang, Jianhua; Chen, Bo; Li, Shuguang; On, Stephen L W; De Saeger, Sarah; Wu, Aibo

    2014-12-01

    Humans are naturally and frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins, but health risk assessments are usually performed on individual mycotoxins, which may underestimate the total risks. In this study, we assessed for the first time the cumulative health risks of concomitant exposure via dietary intake (DI) to multiple mycotoxins, namely deoxynivalenol (DON) and its acetyl derivatives of 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol (3-ADON) and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol (15-ADON), based on the concentration addition (CA) concept. A cross-sectional study was conducted in seven districts in Shanghai, China with 1269 participants and 330 wheat and maize samples analyzed. After probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the results showed no health risks to the population in Shanghai considering individual mycotoxins. However, if the cumulative health risks were calculated based on the combined consideration of DON with either 3-ADON or 15-ADON or both, the DI values in 95th percentile were up to 1087 ng/kg body weight/day, exceeding the Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTDI) of 1000 ng/kg body weight/day and hence representing potential health risks to the population in Shanghai. The integrated study proposed here could be a model strategy for cumulative health risk assessment on the co-occurring hazards in the fields of food safety combined with environmental contaminants.

  13. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  14. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  15. Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Imported Frozen Fish Scomber scombrus Species Sold in Nigeria: A Case Study in Zaria Metropolis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullahi Abubakar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the likely health risks to human contamination of heavy metals from fish consumption. The analysis of the idea of fish destination and status (fishing area for heavy metals was determined by the assessment of its risk limits (daily intake of metal and health risk index. Variations in the accumulation of heavy metals concentrations were between various tissues/organs (skin, muscle, gills, liver, intestine, kidneys, brain, and bones across the batches of two fishing origins. Post hoc (Duncan multicomparison shows that there are significant differences (PHg>Pb>Cd>Ni and were above the recommended safety limits outlined by FAO/WHO. However, the consumer’s health risk with the consumption of fish muscles tissues shows that there are greater tendencies for cadmium, lead, and mercury exposure. Also consumption of Scomber scombrus species above the recommended daily intake (stated in this study might lead to ingestion of heavy metals at unacceptable concentrations.

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  17. Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

    2017-04-01

    Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

  18. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  20. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  1. [Ecological risk assessment of human activity of rapid economic development regions in southern Jiangsu, China: a case study of Dantu District of Zhenjiang City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Guang-Ling; Xiang, Bao; Wang, Bao-Liang; Jin, Xia; Hu, Yu; Zhang, Li-Kun

    2014-04-01

    This article investigated the spatiotemporal variation of landscape ecological risk in Dantu District of Zhenjiang City with statistical method based on the ETM remote sensing data in 2000 and 2005, and the TM remote sensing data in 2010, and quantitative index of regional ecological risk assessment was established with the employment of landscape index, so as to enhance the ecosystem management, prevent and reduce the regional ecological risk in southern Jiangsu with rapid economic development. The results showed that the fragmentations, divergence, and ecological losses of natural landscape types, such as forestland, wetland, waters, etc., were deteriorated with the expansion of built-up lands from 2000 to 2010. The higher ecological risk zone took up 5.7%, 9.0%, and 10.2% of the whole region in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively, which mainly distributed in the plain hilly region. During the study period, the area aggravating to the higher ecological risk zone was approximately 296.2 km2, 48% of the whole region. The ecological risk rose up in most of the region. The interference of rapid economic development to landscape patterns was even more intensive, with obvious spatial differences in ecological risk distribution. The measures of exploiting resources near the port, utilizing natural wetlands, constructing industrial parks, and rapid urbanization, etc., intensified the ecological risk and accelerated the conversion rate. Prompt strategies should be established to manage the ecological risk of this region.

  2. Does a more refined assessment of exposure to bitumen fume and confounders alter risk estimates from a nested case-control study of lung cancer among European asphalt workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agostini, Michela; Ferro, Gilles; Burstyn, Igor

    2013-01-01

    To investigate whether a refined assessment of exposure to bitumen fume among workers in the European asphalt industry within a nested case-control study resulted in a different interpretation pertaining to risk of lung cancer mortality compared with the cohort study....

  3. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  5. A more rapid approach to systematically assessing published associations of genetic polymorphisms and disease risk: type 2 diabetes as a test case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cho AH

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Alex H Cho1, Xiaolei Jiang2, Devin M Mann3, Kensaku Kawamoto4, Timothy J Robinson5, Nancy Wang6, Jeanette J McCarthy2, Mark Woodward7, Geoffrey S Ginsburg1,21Center for Personalized Medicine and Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, 2Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 3Section of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, 4Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 5Medical College of Virginia, Richmond, VA, 6School of Medicine, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 7George Institute for Global Health and University of Sydney, AustraliaBackground: Comparative effectiveness research and research in genomic medicine are not orthogonal pursuits. Both require a robust evidence base, and each stands to benefit from applying the methods of the other. There is an exponentially growing literature reporting associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and increased risk for diseases such as type 2 diabetes. Literature-based meta-analysis is an important method of assessing the validity of published gene-disease associations, but a traditional emphasis on exhaustiveness makes it difficult to study multiple polymorphisms efficiently. Here we describe a novel two-step search method for broadly yet systematically reviewing the literature to identify the "most-studied" gene-disease associations, thereby selecting those with a high possibility of replication on which to conduct abbreviated, simultaneous meta-analyses. This method was then applied to identify and evaluate the validity of SNPs reported to be associated with increased type 2 diabetes risk, to demonstrate proof of principle.Methods: A two-step MEDLINE search (1950 to present was conducted in September 2007 for published genetic association data related to SNPs associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. The

  6. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  7. Multi scale modelling of landslide hazard and risk assessment in data scarce area - a case study on Dhalai District, Tripura, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Kapil; De, Sunil Kumar

    2017-04-01

    Successful landslide management plans and policy depends on in-depth knowledge about the hazard and associated risk. Thus, the present research is intended to present an integrated approach involving uses of geospatial technologies for landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales (site specific to regional level). The landslide hazard map at regional scale (district level) is prepared by using weight-rating based method. To analyze landslide manifestation in the Dhalai district of Tripura different causative factor maps (lithology, road buffer, slope, relative relief, rainfall, fault buffer, landuse/landcover and drainage density) are derived. The analysis revealed that the geological structure and human interference have more influence than other considered factors on the landslide occurrences. The landslide susceptibility zonation map shows that about 1.64 and 16.68% of the total study area is falling under very high and high susceptibility zones respectively. The landslide risk assessment at district level is generated by integrating hazard scouring and resource damage potential scouring (fuzzy membership values) maps. The values of landslide risk matrix are varying within the range of 0.001 to 0.18 and the risk assessment map shows that only 0.45% (10.80 km2) of the district is under very high risk zone, whereas, about 50% pixels of existing road section are under very high to high level of landslide risk. The major part (94.06%) of the district is under very low to low risk zone. Landslide hazard and risk assessment at site specific level have been carried out through intensive field investigation in which it is found that the Ambassa landslide is located within 150 m buffer zone of fault line. Variation of geo-electrical resistivity (2.2Ωm to 31.4Ωm) indicates the complex geological character in this area. Based on the obtained geo-technical result which helps to identify the degree of risk to the existing resource, it is appropriate to

  8. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  9. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja; Erichsen, A. C.; Mark, O.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CS...

  10. Distribution and health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in industrial site soils: A case study of urban renewal in Beijing, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Wenrui; WANG Rusong; ZHOU Chuanbin; LI Feng

    2009-01-01

    A field survey was conducted in a contaminated industrial site in southern Beijing, China to investigate theconcentrations and distribution of the organochlorine pesticides (α-, β-, γ-, δ-HCH, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD and o,p'-DDT) in the profiles of soil, and a health risk assessment was carried out with CalTOX multimedia exposure model. Results showed that mean concentrations of total hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs) and total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane isomers (DDXs) in soils ranged in 13.19-148.71 mg/kg, and 3.02-67.42 mg/kg, respectively. Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) concentration peaked at the surface and declined in soil profile with depth and the amounts of HCHs in three profiles of soil were larger than DDXs. Composition analysis indicated that there was a trend of degradation of OCPs in the site, but the mean of HCHs and DDXs concentration were over the state warning standard limit (HCHs, 0.50 mg/kg; DDXs, 0.50 mg/kg). According to current land use development, health risk assessment with CalTOX and Monte Carlo analysis showed that health risks mainly came from two exposure pathways: dermal uptake and inhalation, and that the total risk values all exceeded the general acceptable health risk value (10-6). The sensitivity analysis indicated that five parameters significantly contributed to total risk.

  11. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  12. Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liyanage, H; de Lusignan, S; Liaw, S-T; Kuziemsky, C E; Mold, F; Krause, P; Fleming, D; Jones, S

    2014-08-15

    Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

  13. Examining the feasibility of mixture risk assessment: A case study using a tiered approach with data of 67 pesticides from the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Richard M; Scholze, Martin; Kortenkamp, Andreas

    2015-10-01

    The way in which mixture risk assessment (MRA) should be included in chemical risk assessment is a current topic of debate. We used data from 67 recent pesticide evaluations to build a case study using Hazard Index calculations to form risk estimates in a tiered MRA approach in line with a Framework proposed by WHO/IPCS. The case study is used to illustrate the approach and to add detail to the existing Framework, and includes many more chemicals than previous case studies. A low-tier MRA identified risk as being greater than acceptable, but refining risk estimates in higher tiers was not possible due to data requirements not being readily met. Our analysis identifies data requirements, which typically expand dramatically in higher tiers, as being the likely cause for an MRA to fail in many realistic cases. This forms a major obstacle to routine implementation of MRA and shows the need for systematic generation and collection of toxicological data. In low tiers, hazard quotient inspection identifies chemicals that contribute most to the HI value and thus require attention if further refinement is needed. Implementing MRA requires consensus on issues such as scope setting, criteria for performing refinement, and decision criteria for actions.

  14. Geocomputation and Spatial Modelling for Geographical Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Hustopeče Area, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruda, Aleš; Kolejka, Jaromír; Batelková, Kateřina

    2016-04-01

    The phenomenon of drought is serious in many landscapes with continental patterns of climate. In fact, drought risk is usually assessed in terms of prevailing issue (meteorological, hydrological, agronomical, etc.) and not in terms of complex landscape features. A procedure for detailed geographical drought risk modelling has been developed using recent meteorological data of dry period and prior precipitations, as well as a digital elevation model and geographic data layers of natural landscape features and land cover. The current version of the procedure starts with meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) processing followed by the use of soil and geological data and land cover, the national CORINE LC 2006 CZ database, for assessing the impact of the local natural features on drought risk. The methodology is based on GIS tools, geodata of the geological structure of the area (water holding capacity of the substrate, the horizontal and vertical water conductivity), soil cover (in agricultural and forested areas, soil types and kinds), landscape cover (land use), relief (digital elevation model and its derivatives), temperature and precipitation data from neighbouring representative meteorological and climate stations. The procedure uses regression equation for temperature and precipitation risk modelling, fuzzy standardization for estimation of different water retention within land cover categories and expert estimation for risk categories within rocks and soils. The final calculation is based on spatial decision-making techniques, especially the weighted sum method with a natural breaks reclassification algorithm. Combining geodata of soils, the geological environment and the active surface with their computed humidity conditions, it is possible to identify areas with a graded risk of geographic drought. The final results do not represent partial values, but identify five risk classes in the study area illustrating a possible level of geographical

  15. Geocomputation and Spatial Modelling for Geographical Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Hustopeče Area, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruda, Aleš; Kolejka, Jaromír; Batelková, Kateřina

    2017-02-01

    The phenomenon of drought is serious in many landscapes with continental patterns of climate. In fact, drought risk is usually assessed in terms of prevailing issue (meteorological, hydrological, agronomical, etc.) and not in terms of complex landscape features. A procedure for detailed geographical drought risk modelling has been developed using recent meteorological data of dry period and prior precipitations, as well as a digital elevation model and geographic data layers of natural landscape features and land cover. The current version of the procedure starts with meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) processing followed by the use of soil and geological data and land cover, the national CORINE LC 2006 CZ database, for assessing the impact of the local natural features on drought risk. The methodology is based on GIS tools, geodata of the geological structure of the area (water holding capacity of the substrate, the horizontal and vertical water conductivity), soil cover (in agricultural and forested areas, soil types and kinds), landscape cover (land use), relief (digital elevation model and its derivatives), temperature and precipitation data from neighbouring representative meteorological and climate stations. The procedure uses regression equation for temperature and precipitation risk modelling, fuzzy standardization for estimation of different water retention within land cover categories and expert estimation for risk categories within rocks and soils. The final calculation is based on spatial decision-making techniques, especially the weighted sum method with a natural breaks reclassification algorithm. Combining geodata of soils, the geological environment and the active surface with their computed humidity conditions, it is possible to identify areas with a graded risk of geographic drought. The final results do not represent partial values, but identify five risk classes in the study area illustrating a possible level of geographical

  16. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  17. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds fo

  18. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  19. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  20. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  1. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  3. Fractionation of heavy metals in sediments and assessment of their availability risk: A case study in the northwestern of Persian Gulf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pejman, Amirhossein; Nabi Bidhendi, Gholamreza; Ardestani, Mojtaba; Saeedi, Mohsen; Baghvand, Akbar

    2017-01-30

    Sequential extraction procedure was applied to determine the chemical forms of heavy metals in sediments in order to assess their mobility and availability in the aquatic environment. The mean concentrations of Cr, Ni, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in exchangeable and carbonate fractions were 14.9, 30.9, 17, 0.37, 4.4 and 14.4mg/kg, respectively. Based on the sediments quality guidelines (SQGs), the adverse biological effects caused by Ni, can occur frequently across the study area. Risk assessment code (RAC) suggested that the Cd has the highest level of environmental risk compared with other studied metals. Modified risk assessment code (mRAC) demonstrated a high potential adverse effect in the many of sampling sites. According to the fractionation results, the concentration of Ni in exchangeable and carbonate fractions was very considerable and more than other metals, hence, the potential risk of nickel release can be much more than other investigated metals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Soil erosion and risk-assessment for on- and off-farm impacts: a test case using the Midhurst area, West Sussex, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boardman, John; Shepheard, Mark L; Walker, Edward; Foster, Ian D L

    2009-06-01

    Soil erosion on agricultural land is a growing problem in Western Europe and constitutes a threat to soil quality and to the ability of soils to provide environmental services. The off-site impacts of runoff and eroded soil, principally eutrophication of water bodies, sedimentation of gravel-bedded rivers, loss of reservoir capacity, muddy flooding of roads and communities, are increasingly recognised and costed. The shift of funding in the European Union (EU) from production-related to avoidance of pollution and landscape protection, raises issues of cross-compliance: public support for agriculture has to be seen to give value-for-money. In this context risk-assessment procedures have been introduced to help farmers recognise sites where either certain crops should not be grown or anti-erosion measures are required. In England, Defra [Defra, 2005a. Controlling Soil Erosion: a Manual for the Assessment and Management of Agricultural Land at Risk of Water Erosion in Lowland England. Revised September 2005. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London] sets out a system of risk-assessment, including ranking of crops susceptible to erosion and anti-erosion measures, that may be selected. We assess this system using field data for an area of erodible soils in the Rother valley, Sussex. The Defra approach correctly identifies most at-risk fields and, taken together with land-use maps, allows non-compliance with advice to be highlighted. We suggest a simple extension to the system which would further identify at-risk fields in terms of possible damage to roads and rivers from muddy runoff. The increased risk of erosion in the study area is associated with certain crops: potatoes, winter cereals, maize and grazed turnips and seems unlikely to be the result of changes in rainfall which over the last 130 years are minimal. We have not evaluated proposed anti-erosion measures in the area because few have been put into practice. The European Water Framework

  5. Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models to Incorporate Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Pesticide Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk assessment has been proposed as an approach to evaluate the health risks associated with simultaneous exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD models can allow for the inclusion and evaluation of multiple stressors, including non-chemical stressors, but studies have not leveraged PBPK/PD models to jointly consider these disparate exposures in a cumulative risk context. In this study, we focused on exposures to organophosphate (OP pesticides for children in urban low-income environments, where these children would be simultaneously exposed to other pesticides (including pyrethroids and non-chemical stressors that may modify the effects of these exposures (including diet. We developed a methodological framework to evaluate chemical and non-chemical stressor impacts on OPs, utilizing an existing PBPK/PD model for chlorpyrifos. We evaluated population-specific stressors that would influence OP doses or acetylcholinesterase (AChE inhibition, the relevant PD outcome. We incorporated the impact of simultaneous exposure to pyrethroids and dietary factors on OP dose through the compartments of metabolism and PD outcome within the PBPK model, and simulated combinations of stressors across multiple exposure ranges and potential body weights. Our analyses demonstrated that both chemical and non-chemical stressors can influence the health implications of OP exposures, with up to 5-fold variability in AChE inhibition across combinations of stressor values for a given OP dose. We demonstrate an approach for modeling OP risks in the presence of other population-specific environmental stressors, providing insight about co-exposures and variability factors that most impact OP health risks and contribute to children’s cumulative health risk from pesticides. More generally, this framework can be used to inform cumulative risk assessment for any compound impacted by

  6. Endocrine disrupting pesticides: implications for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, R; Plant, J A; Bell, J N B; Voulvoulis, N

    2008-02-01

    Endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals are compounds that alter the normal functioning of the endocrine system, potentially causing disease or deformity in organisms and their offspring. Pesticides are used widely to kill unwanted organisms in crops, public areas, homes and gardens and medicinally to kill parasites. Many are proven or suspected to be EDs. Ancient physiological similarities between different vertebrate groups suggest that disorders observed in wildlife may indicate risks to humans. This makes accurate risk assessment and effective legislation difficult. In this paper, the hazardous properties of pesticides which are known to have ED properties are reviewed in order to assess the implications for risk assessment. As well as data on sources of exposure in the United Kingdom (UK) an assessment of the evidence on the health effects of ED pesticides is also included. In total, 127 have been identified from the literature and their effects and modes of action are listed in this paper. Using the UK as a case study, the types and quantities of pesticides used, and their methods of application are assessed, along with their potential pathways to humans. In the UK reliable data are available only for agricultural use, so non-agricultural routes of pesticide exposure have been poorly quantified. The exposure of people resident in or visiting rural areas could also have been grossly under-estimated. Material links between ED pesticide use and specific illnesses or deformities are complicated by the multifactorial nature of disease, which can be affected by factors such as diet. Despite these difficulties, a large body of evidence has accumulated linking specific conditions to ED pesticides in wildlife and humans. A more precautionary approach to the use of ED pesticides, especially for non-essential purposes is proposed.

  7. Identifying Sources and Assessing Potential Risk of Exposure to Heavy Metals and Hazardous Materials in Mining Areas: The Case Study of Panasqueira Mine (Central Portugal as an Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Candeias

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Sn-W Panasqueira mine, in activity since the mid-1890s, is one of the most important economic deposits in the world. Arsenopyrite is the main mineral present as well as rejected waste sulphide. The long history is testified by the presence of a huge amount of tailings, which release considerable quantities of heavy metal(loids into the environment. This work assesses soil contamination and evaluates the ecological and human health risks due to exposure to hazardous materials. The metal assemblage identified in soil (Ag-As-Bi-Cd-Cu-W-Zn; potentially toxic elements (PTEs reflects the influence of the tailings, due to several agents including aerial dispersion. PTEs and pH display a positive correlation confirming that heavy metal mobility is directly related to pH and, therefore, affects their availability. The estimated contamination factor classified 92.6% of soil samples as moderately to ultra-highly polluted. The spatial distribution of the potential ecological risk index classified the topsoil as being of a very high ecological risk, consistent with wind direction. Non-carcinogenic hazard of topsoil, for children (1–6 years, showed that for As the non-carcinogenic hazard represents a high health risk. The carcinogenic risks, both for children and adult alike, reveal a very high cancer risk mostly due to As ingestion.

  8. Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Wang, Zesen [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Wen, Jingya [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Institute of Hydropower and Environment Research, Beijing 100012 (China); Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China)

    2016-10-05

    Highlights: • Deal with environmental quality guidelines absence in risk characterization. • Quantitative represention of uncertainty from environmental quality guidelines. • Quantitative represention of variability from contaminant exposure concentrations. • Establishment of stochastic-fuzzy environmental risk characterization approach framework. - Abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental quality guidelines under “loose” and “strict” strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.

  9. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  10. Assessment of risk factors for infantile cataracts using a case-control study: National Birth Defects Prevention Study, 2000-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakalapakorn, Sasapin G; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Lambert, Scott R; Honein, Margaret A

    2010-08-01

    To identify risk factors for infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Case-control study. Case infants (n = 152) and control infants (n = 4205) enrolled in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study for birth years 2000-2004. Multivariate analysis was performed exploring associations for risk factors for bilateral and unilateral infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Maternal interviews were completed for 43 case infants with bilateral and 109 with unilateral infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Very low birth weight (birth weight (1500-2499 g) was only associated with bilateral cataracts (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.3-8.1). Infants with unilateral cataracts were more likely to be born to primigravid women (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.7) than women with > or =2 previous pregnancies, although this was of borderline significance. Although not significant, effect estimates were elevated suggesting a possible association between unilateral cataracts and maternal substance abuse during pregnancy, and between bilateral cataracts and urinary tract infection during pregnancy and aspirin use during pregnancy. Very low birth weight is associated with both bilateral and unilateral cataracts, whereas low birth weight is associated with bilateral cataracts and primigravidity with unilateral cataracts. Other associations, although not statistically significant, suggest risk factors that merit further research. Copyright 2010 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessment of risk factors for infantile cataracts using a case-control study, National Birth Defects Prevention Study, 2000–2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakalapakorn, Sasapin G.; Rasmussen, Sonja A.; Lambert, Scott R.; Honein, Margaret A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To identify risk factors for infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Design Case-control study Participants Case-infants (N=152) and control-infants (N=4205) enrolled in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study for birth years 2000–2004. Methods Multivariate analysis was performed exploring associations for risk factors for bilateral and unilateral infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Main Outcome Measures Infantile cataracts of unknown etiology Results Maternal interviews were completed for 43 case-infants with bilateral and 109 with unilateral infantile cataracts of unknown etiology. Very low birth weight (birth weight (1500–2499g) was only associated with bilateral cataracts (OR=3.3; 95% CI=1.3–8.1). Infants with unilateral cataracts were more likely to be born to primigravid women (OR=1.6; 95% CI=1.0–2.7) than women with two or more previous pregnancies, although this was of borderline significance. While not statistically significant, effect estimates were elevated suggesting a possible association between unilateral cataracts and maternal substance abuse during pregnancy, and between bilateral cataracts and urinary tract infection during pregnancy and aspirin use during pregnancy. Conclusions Very low birth weight is associated with both bilateral and unilateral cataracts, while low birth weight is associated with bilateral cataracts and primigravidity with unilateral cataracts. Other associations, while not of statistical significance, suggest risk factors that merit further research. PMID:20363508

  12. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  13. Appropriate exposure estimates for wildlife risk assessments of crop protection products based on continuous radio telemetry: A case study with woodpigeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Ebeling, Markus; Fredricks, Timothy B; Murfitt, Roger C; Kragten, Steven

    2017-05-01

    The registration of pesticides follows guidance published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). As a default, the EFSA guidance document on risk assessment for birds and mammals assumes that animals feed exclusively on pesticide-treated fields. However, the guidance document suggests refining the risk via the proportion of food animals obtain from a treated field or specific crop (expressed via the portion of diet obtained from a treated area [PT value]). The EFSA guidance equalizes the portion of food taken from a treated area per day with the portion of time spent potentially foraging over the course of a day within this area. Therefore, radiotracking is commonly used to gather species-, crop-, and season-specific PT data, and radio telemetry of continuously tracked farmland species can deliver individual PT values for a given day, crop, and species. In the present study the authors introduce a way of calculating long-term PT values based on empirically recorded data via telemetry field studies for the most appropriate use in wildlife risk assessment of pesticides. The novel aspect of the proposal is that the authors follow the prerequisite given by EFSA to cover the long-term risk by introducing 21-d PT values that aim to cover both intra- and inter-individual variability of foraging focal farmland species in cropped habitats. Currently, the intra-individual variability is not taken into account for PT calculations. The authors demonstrate this approach and discuss EFSA guidance input requirements for PT values recorded in field studies, based on a PT field study conducted with woodpigeons (Columba palumbus) radiotracked in an agricultural landscape in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that a 21-d PT value considering intra-individual variability gives a more appropriate PT value for long-term risk assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1270-1277. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  14. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  15. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  16. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  17. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  18. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  19. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  20. Social vulnerability assessment of flood risk using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis. A case study of Vila Nova de Gaia (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Fernandez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decade, flood disasters have affected millions of people and caused massive economic losses. Social vulnerability assessment uses a combination of several factors to represent a population's differential access to resources and its ability to cope with and respond to hazards. In this paper, social vulnerability assessment to flood risk was applied to the third most populous Portuguese municipality. The study was developed at the neighbourhood level, allowing for social vulnerability analysis at inter civil parish, intra civil parish, and municipality scales. A geographic information system-based multicriteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA was applied to social vulnerability and allows for an increased understanding and improved monitoring of social vulnerability over space, identifying ‘hot spots’ that require adaptation policies. Mafamude, Oliveira do Douro, Vila Nova de Gaia, and Avintes civil parishes display the greatest vulnerability to flooding. According to the most pessimistic scenario 57%–68% of the area of these civil parishes is classed at a high or very high level of social vulnerability. The GIS-MCDA helps to assess what and who is at risk, and where targeted impact-reduction strategies should be implemented. The results demonstrate the importance of an urban-scale approach instead of a river basin scale to urban flood risk management plans.

  1. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  2. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR CIVIL AIRPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Distefano

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A practical problem in air transport is how to manage risk and safety. In recent years have been developed special technical and managerial skills to the systematic, forward looking identification and control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a project, program, or activity. Safety Management System (SMS involves identifying, evaluating, and addressing of hazards or risk. Its sole purpose is to prevent accidents. Safety risk assessment is defined as the systematic identification and evaluation of the risk posed by the complete spectrum of possible accident scenarios. Risk assessment is a tool that supports decision making and as such supports risk management. Risk management comprises the safety optimization of the system, the verification process and risk acceptance, which support airport operations. This paper proposed a quantitative methodology for the risk assessment for a civil airport, which is based on historical data of aircraft accidents, contained in the Aviation Safety Network database, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2010.

  3. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  4. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, Benjamin L [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  5. UNESCO World Heritage Site Hallstatt: Rockfall hazard and risk assessment as basis for a sustainable land-use planning- a case study from the Eastern Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzner, Sandra; Mölk, Michael; Schiffer, Michael; Gasperl, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    In times of decreasing financial resources, the demand for the investment in protection measures with a positive return on investment is of high importance. Hazard and risk assessments are essential tools in order to ensure an economically justifiable application of money in the implementation of preventive measures. Many areas in the Eastern Alps are recurrently affected by rockfall processes which pose a significant hazard to settlements and infrastructures. Complex tectonic, lithological and geomorphologic settings require a sufficient amount of effort to map and collect high quality data to perform a reliable hazard and risk analysis. The present work summarizes the results of a detailed hazard and risk assessment performed in a community in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austroalpine Unit). The community Hallstatt is exposed to very steep limestone cliffs, which are highly susceptible towards future, in many parts high magnitude rock failures. The analysis of the record of former events shows that since 1652 several rockfall events damaged or destroyed houses and killed or injured some people. Hallstatt as a Unesco World Heritage Site represents a very vulnerable settlement, the risk being elevated by a high frequency tourism with greater one million visitors per year. Discussion will focus on the applied methods to identify and map the rockfall hazard and risk, including a magnitude-frequency analysis of events in the past and an extrapolation in the future as well as a vulnerability analysis for the existing infrastructure under the assumed events for the determined magnitude-frequency scenarios. Furthermore challenges for a decision making in terms of a sustainable land use planning and implementation of preventive measures will be discussed.

  6. Systematic Risk in Agriculture: A Case of Slovakia

    OpenAIRE

    Tóth, M.; D. Lančarič; A. Piterková; Savov, R.

    2014-01-01

    The paper uses the alternative Markowitz portfolio theory approach, by replacing the stock return with return on equity (ROE) and estimates the systematic risk of unquoted agricultural farms. The systematic risk is standardly measured by the mean-variance model and standard deviation of stock return. In case of unquoted firms the information regarding the market rate of return is missing. To assess the risk and return, the use of individual financial statements is necessary. The systematic ri...

  7. An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

    2015-02-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  9. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  10. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... the emissions, how should they be defined and classified and what should be measured? LCA have many of these issues in common with RA. There is a need to understand which properties of nanomaterials are crucial for the assessment of their potential transformation and fate as well as their ability to cause...... adverse effects on target organisms or systems. If we want to be able to assess toxic impacts both in LCA and in RA these issues need to be addressed by the RA community and the LCA community must follow closely the progress made....

  11. Risk assessment methodology in oil shale mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabanov, S. [Tallinn Univ. of Technology, Tallinn (Estonia)

    2009-07-01

    The safety challenges posed by different mining processes were discussed in terms of geotechnical risk factors. Various mining processes can result in work hazards, a production shut-down, economic damage to the enterprise, and environmental impacts. In Estonia, risk assessment methods are utilized in different branches of industry. However, the literature on solving mining problems is limited. Various methods are applicable for solving complicated mining problems. This paper elaborated on a modified risk assessment methodology for oil shale mining in Estonia. The paper specifically discussed problems associated with oil shale mining as well as risk assessment methods such as risk analysis and risk evaluation. Topics that were introduced included risk analysis; risk identification; risk estimation; risk evaluation; risk mitigation; and risk acceptance. The modified risk assessment methodology was successfully applied to the extraction of mineral resources, stability of a mining block, and their influence on the environment. It was concluded that the methodology provides opportunity to find improved methods for new mine planning in accordance with environmental performances and the economical profit for companies. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  12. Assessing the risk caused by ground level ozone to European forest trees: A case study in pine, beech and oak across different climate regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emberson, Lisa D. [Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: l.emberson@york.ac.uk; Bueker, Patrick [Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Ashmore, Mike R. [Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    Two different indices have been proposed for estimation of the risk caused to forest trees across Europe by ground-level ozone, (i) the concentration based AOT40 index (Accumulated Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) and (ii) the recently developed flux based AFstY index (Accumulated stomatal Flux above a flux threshold Y). This paper compares the AOT40 and AFstY indices for three forest trees species at different locations in Europe. The AFstY index is estimated using the DO{sub 3}SE (Deposition of Ozone and Stomatal Exchange) model parameterized for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), beech (Fagus sylvatica) and holm oak (Quercus ilex). The results show a large difference in the perceived O{sub 3} risk when using AOT40 and AFstY indices both between species and regions. The AOT40 index shows a strong north-south gradient across Europe, whereas there is little difference between regions in the modelled values of AFstY. There are significant differences in modelled AFstY between species, which are predominantly determined by differences in the timing and length of the growing season, the periods during which soil moisture deficit limits stomatal conductance, and adaptation to soil moisture stress. This emphasizes the importance of defining species-specific flux response variables to obtain a more accurate quantification of O{sub 3} risk. - A new flux-based model provides a revised assessment of risks of ozone impacts to European forests.

  13. Groundwater Nitrogen Pollution and Assessment of Its Health Risks: A Case Study of a Typical Village in Rural-Urban Continuum, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yang; Yu, Guirui; Luo, Chunyan; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    Protecting groundwater from nitrogen contamination is an important public-health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. In this study, we monitored water quality in 29 wells from 2009 to 2010 in a village in Shanghai city, whick belong to typical rural-urban continuum in China. The total N and NO3-N exhibited seasonal changes, and there were large fluctuations in NH4-N in residential areas, but without significant seasonal patterns. NO2-N in the water was not stable, but was present at high levels. Total N and NO3-N were significantly lower in residential areas than in agricultural areas. The groundwater quality in most wells belonged to Class III and IV in the Chinese water standard, which defines water that is unsuitable for human consumption. Our health risk assessments showed that NO3-N posed the greatest carcinogenic risk, with risk values ranging from 19×10−6 to 80×10−6, which accounted for more than 90% of the total risk in the study area. PMID:22514611

  14. Human Exposure Risk Assessment Due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater by Pollution Index and Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Case Study from South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vetrimurugan Elumalai

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heavy metals in surface and groundwater were analysed and their sources were identified using multivariate statistical tools for two towns in South Africa. Human exposure risk through the drinking water pathway was also assessed. Electrical conductivity values showed that groundwater is desirable to permissible for drinking except for six locations. Concentration of aluminium, lead and nickel were above the permissible limit for drinking at all locations. Boron, cadmium, iron and manganese exceeded the limit at few locations. Heavy metal pollution index based on ten heavy metals indicated that 85% of the area had good quality water, but 15% was unsuitable. Human exposure dose through the drinking water pathway indicated no risk due to boron, nickel and zinc, moderate risk due to cadmium and lithium and high risk due to silver, copper, manganese and lead. Hazard quotients were high in all sampling locations for humans of all age groups, indicating that groundwater is unsuitable for drinking purposes. Highly polluted areas were located near the coast, close to industrial operations and at a landfill site representing human-induced pollution. Factor analysis identified the four major pollution sources as: (1 industries; (2 mining and related activities; (3 mixed sources- geogenic and anthropogenic and (4 fertilizer application.

  15. A critical review of hydrological data collection for assessing preservation risk for urban waterlogged archaeology: A case study from the City of York, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Joseph; Howard, Andy J; West, L Jared; Maxfield, Eleanor; Panter, Ian; Oxley, John

    2009-08-01

    Environmental change caused by urban development, possibly augmented by climate change, may result in accelerated decay of in situ archaeological resources. Damage may be related to changes in hydrological processes. Such archaeological resources have to be considered in environmental planning. In this paper we highlight the need for improved hydrological data from urban archaeological sites using the case study of the City of York, UK, arguably one of the most well studied and well preserved urban archaeological environments globally. We suggest that the quality of hydrological data collected during routine surveys and experimental work must be improved and standardised in order for us to produce reliable archaeological risk models for urban sites.

  16. A quality by design (QbD) case study on liposomes containing hydrophilic API: I. Formulation, processing design and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaoming; Khan, Mansoor A; Burgess, Diane J

    2011-10-31

    The purpose of this study was to extend QbD principles to liposomal drug products containing a hydrophilic active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) to demonstrate both the feasibility and the advantages of applying QbD concepts to liposome based complex parenteral controlled release systems. The anti-viral drug Tenofovir was selected as a model compound. Desired properties for two of the key liposome drug product qualities, namely the particle size and drug encapsulation efficiency, were defined and evaluated. It was observed that the liposome preparation process significantly affects liposome particle size, and this resulted in considerable variation in the drug encapsulation efficiency. Lipid chain length did not have a significant effect on drug encapsulation efficiency. However, lipid concentration did affect the drug encapsulation efficiency with higher lipid concentrations resulting in higher drug encapsulation. The use of risk assessment in this study assisted the identification of eight high risk factors that may impact liposome drug encapsulation efficiency and particle size.

  17. Comparison between three different LCIA methods for aquatic ecotoxicity and a product Environmental Risk Assessment – Insights from a Detergent Case Study within OMNIITOX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pant, Rana; Van Hoof, Geert; Feijtel, Tom

    2004-01-01

    -RP, Compact Powder-CP and Compact Liquid-CL) regarding their potential impacts on aquatic ecotoxicity, ii) providing insights into the differences between various Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods with respect to data needs and results and iii) comparing the results from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA......Background and Objective. In the OMNIITOX project 11 partners have the common objective to improve environmental management tools for the assessment of (eco)toxicological impacts. The detergent case study aims at: i) comparing three Procter & Gamble laundry detergent forms (Regular Powder......, while the regular powder comes out worse by a factor of 2. USES-LCA for marine water shows a very different picture seeing the compact liquid as the clear winner over the powders, with the regular powder the least favourable option. Even the LCIA methods which result in the same product ranking, e...

  18. AN ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS FOR CONGENITAL HEART DISEASES IN CHILDREN OF AGE GROUP 0 - 10 YEARS : A CASE CONTROL STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Congenital heart diseases (CHDs affect approx 6 – 8 infants per1000 live births have multifactorial origin. Various studies attribute number of maternal (e.g. family history of congenital heart diseases , consanguinity , febrile illness , co - morbidities like diabetes or hypertension and fetal factors (prematurity , LBW , chromosomal abnormality for development of CHDs. There is paucity of data in India; hence this study was conducted to evaluate risk factors in causation of CHDs in children. METHOD: It was a case control study conducted from Mar to Aug 2012 among children up to 10 ye ars of age attending tertiary care hospital in Maharashtra , India. A total of 75 cases of CHDs and equal number of matched controls were included in the study. RESULTS: The mean age of cases was 19 months and that of controls 18 months. Male to female rati o was 1.5:1 among cases and 1.7:1 among controls. VSD was the commonest cardiac anomaly found in 37(49.33% cases. In neonatal characteristics , cases had significantly increased number of prematurity and low birth weight as , compared to control(p=0.006 , O R - 3.25(95% CI 1.35 - 8.25 and(p<0.001 , OR - 3.86 (95% CI 1.85 - 8.11 respectively. Twenty six (35% children among cases were born of consanguineous marriage while 8(11% in controls and association was found statistically significant [p<0.01 , OR - 4.44 (95% C.I =1.75 - 12.24]. Similar associations were seen with family history of congenital heart diseases [OR 4.10(95% C.I=1.34 - 14.97 , co - morbidities [p=0.02 , OR - 2.7 (95% CI 1.1 - 6.93]. CONCLUSION: Our study showed maternal factors like consanguinity , family histor y of congenital heart diseases , co - morbidities like gestational diabetes , hypertension and drug intake during pregnancy were significant underlying risk factors for development of CHDs in children.

  19. Potential Health Risk Assessment of Cr, Cu, Fe and Zn for Human Population via Consumption of Commercial Spices; a Case Study of Hamedan City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobhanardakani S.* PhD

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aims: Spices are sources of many bioactive compounds that can improve the taste of food as well as affecting the digestion and metabolism. Along with that, they may also contain some substances as heavy metals, which have harmful effects on the body. The aim of present study was to assess the potential health risk of Cr, Cu, Fe and Zn contents of cardamom, curry powder and turmeric in Hamedan City, Iran. Instrument & Methods: 18 industrially packaged and weighted spice samples (cardamom, curry powder and turmeric belonging to 6 famous brands were bought from different supermarkets of Hamedan City, Iran, in 2015. The human health risks posed by chronic exposure to the heavy metals were assessed by computing the average daily intake of metal. The health risk index (HRI for the local population through the consumption of spice was assessed using DIM/RfD formula. Data were analyzed using ANOVA, DMS post-hoc, Tukey HSD and Pearson's correlation coefficient tests. Findings: Cr was detected in spice samples in 0.08-1.67mg/kg, Cu 0.05-1.28mg/kg, Fe 1.04-6.89mg/kg and Zn 0.40-2.25mg/kg. The mean concentration of Cu, Fe and Zn were lower than MPL. The DIM values for the examined spice samples were below the recommended values. Conclusion: The levels of Cr, Cu, Fe and Zn are less than the MPL in cardamom, curry powder and turmeric in Hamedan City, Iran.

  20. Risk of breast cancer following exposure to tetrachloroethylene-contaminated drinking water in Cape Cod, Massachusetts: reanalysis of a case-control study using a modified exposure assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Webster Thomas F

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tetrachloroethylene (PCE is an important occupational chemical used in metal degreasing and drycleaning and a prevalent drinking water contaminant. Exposure often occurs with other chemicals but it occurred alone in a pattern that reduced the likelihood of confounding in a unique scenario on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We previously found a small to moderate increased risk of breast cancer among women with the highest exposures using a simple exposure model. We have taken advantage of technical improvements in publically available software to incorporate a more sophisticated determination of water flow and direction to see if previous results were robust to more accurate exposure assessment. Methods The current analysis used PCE exposure estimates generated with the addition of water distribution modeling software (EPANET 2.0 to test model assumptions, compare exposure distributions to prior methods, and re-examine the risk of breast cancer. In addition, we applied data smoothing to examine nonlinear relationships between breast cancer and exposure. We also compared a set of measured PCE concentrations in water samples collected in 1980 to modeled estimates. Results Thirty-nine percent of individuals considered unexposed in prior epidemiological analyses were considered exposed using the current method, but mostly at low exposure levels. As a result, the exposure distribution was shifted downward resulting in a lower value for the 90th percentile, the definition of "high exposure" in prior analyses. The current analyses confirmed a modest increase in the risk of breast cancer for women with high PCE exposure levels defined by either the 90th percentile (adjusted ORs 1.0-1.5 for 0-19 year latency assumptions or smoothing analysis cut point (adjusted ORs 1.3-2.0 for 0-15 year latency assumptions. Current exposure estimates had a higher correlation with PCE concentrations in water samples (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.65, p

  1. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  2. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  3. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  4. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  5. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  6. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  7. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  8. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee reco

  9. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  10. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  11. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  12. Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0

  13. Uncertainty analysis of EUSES: Improving risk management through probabilistic risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Rikken MGJ; Poel P van der; ECO

    1997-01-01

    In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. Feelings of uncertainty are tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this pr

  14. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  15. Sensitivity of Coastal Flood Risk Assessments to Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas van de Sande

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Most coastal flood risk studies make use of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM in addition to a projected flood water level in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to property and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, as land elevation largely determines whether a location will be flooded or will remain dry during a flood event. Especially in low lying deltaic areas, the land elevation variation is usually in the order of only a few decimeters, and an offset of various decimeters in the elevation data has a significant impact on the accuracy of the risk assessment. Publicly available DEMs are often used in studies for coastal flood risk assessments. The accuracy of these datasets is relatively low, in the order of meters, and is especially low in comparison to the level of accuracy required for a flood risk assessment in a deltaic area. For a coastal zone area in Nigeria (Lagos State an accurate LiDAR DEM dataset was adopted as ground truth concerning terrain elevation. In the case study, the LiDAR DEM was compared to various publicly available DEMs. The coastal flood risk assessment using various publicly available DEMs was compared to a flood risk assessment using LiDAR DEMs. It can be concluded that the publicly available DEMs do not meet the accuracy requirement of coastal flood risk assessments, especially in coastal and deltaic areas. For this particular case study, the publically available DEMs highly overestimated the land elevation Z-values and thereby underestimated the coastal flood risk for the Lagos State area. The findings are of interest when selecting data sets for coastal flood risk assessments in low-lying deltaic areas.

  16. Assessing Wildfire Risk in Cultural Heritage Properties Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Satellite Imagery and Spatially Explicit Fire Simulations: The Case of Holy Mount Athos, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgos Mallinis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Fire management implications and the design of conservation strategies on fire prone landscapes within the UNESCO World Heritage Properties require the application of wildfire risk assessment at landscape level. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of wildfire risk on Holy Mount Athos in Greece. Mt. Athos includes 20 monasteries and other structures that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. Site-specific fuel models were created by measuring in the field several fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, while the spatial extent of the fuel types was determined using a synergy of high-resolution imagery and high temporal information from medium spatial resolution imagery classified through object-based analysis and a machine learning classifier. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT algorithm, as it is embedded in FlamMap software, was applied in order to evaluate Burn Probability (BP, Conditional Flame Length (CFL, Fire Size (FS, and Source-Sink Ratio (SSR. The results revealed low burn probabilities for the monasteries; however, nine out of the 20 monasteries have high fire potential in terms of fire intensity, which means that if an ignition occurs, an intense fire is expected. The outputs of this study may be used for decision-making for short-term predictions of wildfire risk at an operational level, contributing to fire suppression and management of UNESCO World Heritage Properties.

  17. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  18. Paediatric HUS Cases Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk Sold by Vending Machines in Italy: Quantitative Risk Assessment Based on Escherichia coli O157 Official Controls over 7 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacometti, F; Bonilauri, P; Piva, S; Scavia, G; Amatiste, S; Bianchi, D M; Losio, M N; Bilei, S; Cascone, G; Comin, D; Daminelli, P; Decastelli, L; Merialdi, G; Mioni, R; Peli, A; Petruzzelli, A; Tonucci, F; Liuzzo, G; Serraino, A

    2016-12-19

    A quantitative risk assessment (RA) was developed to estimate haemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) cases in paediatric population associated with the consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. The historical national evolution of raw milk consumption phenomenon since 2008, when consumer interest started to grow, and after 7 years of marketing adjustment, is outlined. Exposure assessment was based on the official Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (STEC) microbiological records of raw milk samples from vending machines monitored by the regional Veterinary Authorities from 2008 to 2014, microbial growth during storage, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, consumption preference and age of consumers. The differential risk considered milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst time-temperature field handling conditions detected. In case of boiling milk before consumption, we assumed that the risk of HUS is fixed at zero. The model estimates clearly show that the public health significance of HUS cases due to raw milk STEC contamination depends on the current variability surrounding the risk profile of the food and the consumer behaviour has more impact than milk storage scenario. The estimated HUS cases predicted by our model are roughly in line with the effective STEC O157-associated HUS cases notified in Italy only when the proportion of consumers not boiling milk before consumption is assumed to be 1%. Raw milk consumption remains a source of E. coli O157:H7 for humans, but its overall relevance is likely to have subsided and significant caution should be exerted for temporal, geographical and consumers behaviour analysis. Health education programmes and regulatory actions are required to educate people, primarily children, on other STEC sources.

  19. Risk Communication: the connection between assessment and management of changing risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprague, Teresa; Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Charrière, Marie

    2013-04-01

    Working toward effective risk mitigation strategies amidst ever-present and increasingly changing risks requires first effective communication between assessment and management spheres. This notion permeates the spectrum of what can be considered the physical changing risk inputs that feed into the risk governance processes of assessment, management and communication of risks. Close connections and overlaps between assessment and management requires communication to serve as the crux for the close collaboration necessary for encouraging preventative, long-term strategies for reducing disaster risks.1 More specifically, communication of risk information plays this connective role by informing and advising policy and decision making processes conducted by actors such as spatial planners who receive this information. In this way, those who assess the risks provide information to those who must manage these risks. When this one-directional communication pathway is reciprocated, risk managers provide information to risk assessors, enabling two-way communication amongst actors working toward risk reduction. This communication and exchange of information enables development of strategies and actions taken toward creating and improving risk mitigation measures within a given territory and community. Further, management actions taken (especially for mitigative measures) can alter the physical and social elements of the spatial context of their territory.2 This demands an adjustment of the previous risk assessment information and communication of the change in potential risk. These conceptual underpinnings are addressed and presented through explanation of an analytical framework encompassing changing risk inputs into risk governance processes. The framework elaborates the risk communication component and is supported by practical examples from stakeholder meetings and site visits in the Polish and Romania case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES.3 Specific examples

  20. Systematic Risk in Agriculture: A Case of Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tóth

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper uses the alternative Markowitz portfolio theory approach, by replacing the stock return with return on equity (ROE and estimates the systematic risk of unquoted agricultural farms. The systematic risk is standardly measured by the mean-variance model and standard deviation of stock return. In case of unquoted firms the information regarding the market rate of return is missing. To assess the risk and return, the use of individual financial statements is necessary. The systematic risk in Slovak agriculture over the period 2009-2012 was 3% of equity or capital invested with the average return 0,048%. We calculated the systematic risk separately for two prevailing legal forms in Slovak agriculture: cooperatives and companies (JSC., Ltd.. Cooperatives represent farms with lower individual risk and lower ROE, but higher systematic risk. Companies represent farms established after 1989. These farms generate higher profit for the owner with lower systematic risk.

  1. Occurrence and risk assessment of antibiotics in surface water and groundwater from different depths of aquifers: A case study at Jianghan Plain, central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Linlin; Wang, Yanxin; Tong, Lei; Deng, Yamin; Li, Yonggang; Gan, Yiqun; Guo, Wei; Dong, Chuangju; Duan, Yanhua; Zhao, Ke

    2017-01-01

    The occurrence of 14 antibiotics (fluoroquinolones, tetracyclines, macrolides and sulfonamides) in groundwater and surface water at Jianghan Plain was investigated during three seasons. The total concentrations of target compounds in the water samples were higher in spring than those in summer and winter. Erythromycin was the predominant antibiotic in surface water samples with an average value of 1.60μg/L, 0.772μg/L and 0.546μg/L respectively in spring, summer and winter. In groundwater samples, fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines accounted for the dominant proportion of total antibiotic residues. The vertical distributions of total antibiotics in groundwater samples from three different depths boreholes (10m, 25m, and 50m) exhibited irregular fluctuations. Consistently decreasing of antibiotic residues with increasing of depth was observed in four (G01, G02, G03 and G05) groundwater sampling sites over three seasons. However, at the sampling sites G07 and G08, the pronounced high concentrations of total antibiotic residues were detected in water samples from 50m deep boreholes instead of those at upper aquifer in winter sampling campaign, with the total concentrations of 0.201μg/L and 0.100μg/L respectively. The environmental risks posed by the 14 antibiotics were assessed by using the methods of risk quotient and mixture risk quotient for algae, daphnids and fish in surface water and groundwater. The results suggested that algae might be the aquatic organism most sensitive to the antibiotics, with the highest risk levels posed by erythromycin in surface water and by ciprofloxacin in groundwater among the 14 antibiotics. In addition, the comparison between detected antibiotics in groundwater samples and the reported effective concentrations of antibiotics on denitrification by denitrifying bacteria, indicating this biogeochemical process driven by microorganisms won't be inhibitory influenced by the antibiotic residues in groundwater. Copyright © 2016

  2. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  3. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  4. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  5. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  6. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana

    2014-01-01

    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  7. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  8. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of factor

  9. Regional assessment of cadmium pollution in agricultural lands and the potential health risk related to intensive mining activities:A case study in Chenzhou City, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAI Limei; LIAO Xiaoyong; CHEN Tongbin; YAN Xiulan; XIE Hua; WU Bin; WANG Lixia

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the extent of cadmium (Cd) contamination in agricultural soil and its potential risk for people.Soils,rice,and vegetables from Chenzhou City,Southern China were sampled and analyzed.In the surface soils.the 95% confidence interval for the mean concentration of Cd varied between 2.72 and 4.83 mg/kg (P<0.05) in the survey, with a geometric mean concentration of 1.45 mg/kg.Based on the GIS map,two hot spot areas of Cd in agricultural soils with high Cd concentrations were identified to be located around the Shizhuyuan,Jinshiling,and Yaogangxian mines,and the Baoshan and Huangshaping mines,in the center of the city.About 60% of the total investigated area, where the agricultural soil Cd concentration iS above 1 mg/kg, is distributed in a central belt across the region.The critical distances, at which the soil Cd concentration were increased by the mining activities, from the mines of the soils were 23 km for the Baoshan mine,46 km for the Huangshaping mine,and 63 km for the Shizhuyuan mine,respectively.These are distances calculated from models.The Cd concentrations in rice samples ranged from 0.01 to 4.43 mg/kg and the mean dietary Cd intake from rice for an adult was 191 μg/d.Results of risk indexes showed that soil Cd concentrations possessed risks to local residents whose intake of Cd from rice and vegetables grown in soils in the vicinity of the mine was 596 μg/d.

  10. Comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risk for better land use planning in river basins: Case study of the Upper Blue Nile River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Poesen, Jean; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Fenta, Ayele Almaw; Nyssen, Jan; Adgo, Enyew

    2017-01-01

    In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5tha(-1)yr(-1) and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr(-1), of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30tha(-1)yr(-1)) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15tha(-1)yr(-1)), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region.

  11. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shuang; Geng, Hui; Zhang, Fengjun; Liu, Zhaoying; Wang, Tianye; Song, Boyu

    2015-01-01

    The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI), Cd, As, and Pb) analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I) and Nemerow pollution index (NI). The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream.

  12. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shuang; Geng, Hui; Zhang, Fengjun; Liu, Zhaoying; Wang, Tianye; Song, Boyu

    2015-01-01

    The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI), Cd, As, and Pb) analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I) and Nemerow pollution index (NI). The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream. PMID:26366176

  13. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI, Cd, As, and Pb analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I and Nemerow pollution index (NI. The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS. The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream.

  14. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  15. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  16. Modeling/GIS, Risk Assessment, Economic Impact: Seasonal Patterns for Entomological Measures of Risk for Exposure to Culex Vectors and West Nile Virus in Relation to Human Disease Cases in Northeastern Colorado

    OpenAIRE

    Bolling, Bethany G.; Barker, Christopher M.; Moore, Chester G.; Pape, W. John; Eisen, Lars

    2009-01-01

    We examined seasonal patterns for entomological measures of risk for exposure to Culex vectors and West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) in relation to human WNV disease cases in a five-county area of northeastern Colorado during 2006–2007. Studies along habitat/elevation gradients in 2006 showed that the seasonal activity period is shortened and peak numbers occur later in the summer for Culex tarsalis Coquillett females in foothills-montane areas >1,600 m compared wit...

  17. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  18. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  19. Development of a practical tool for the flood risk assessment in highly urbanized areas: The case of the Arno River, Firenze (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, S.; Segoni, S.; Catani, F.; Battistini, A.; Manzo, G.; Ermini, L.

    2011-12-01

    The dynamic evolution of a river and the adjacent morphological environment are particularly important especially if there are communities that concentrate in these areas their socio-economic activities. So a proper hydraulic risk management is an increasingly felt necessity, but when working at small scales no established fast methodology exists to map the position and the height of the various elements with centimetric accuracy. In the current work an operative methodology likely to obtain this purpose is proposed on the basis of data obtained from a real test area. It is along the Arno river (Italy) which could be considered on the whole a representative case study of other realities in the world. Various issues have been deepened. Firstly RTK-GPS measurements and information about all the natural and artificial elements, connected to hydraulic risk and fluvial dynamics, were collected. All these elements were mapped with high accuracy, in particular a local geoid model, related only to the study area, was developed to obtain orthometric heights affected with errors ≤ 0.05 m. Consequently a GIS geodatabase was built to visualize the spatial distribution of the mapped elements and to store the most important technical data. Such geodatabase provides an overview of the territories connected with the fluvial dynamics of the main rivers near the city of Firenze. This is confirmed by some applications, realized to verify the capability of the instrument. First of all the real hydraulic risk in the study area has been checked out. So the comparison between the measured dike height and the hydraulic modeling conducted by the Arno River Basin Authority has identified areas at risk of overflowing for various return periods (T30, T100, T200 , T500). Subsequently a deeper analysis of hydraulic hazards has been carried out in the urban area of Firenze. A model of surface-water flows concentrated on the historic center has provided a comprehensive response of this area to

  20. Environmental and Ecological Risk Assessment of Trace Metal Contamination in Mangrove Ecosystems: A Case from Zhangjiangkou Mangrove National Nature Reserve, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Du, Huihong; Xu, Ye; Chen, Kai; Liang, Junhua; Ke, Hongwei; Cheng, Sha-Yen; Liu, Mengyang; Deng, Hengxiang; He, Tong; Wang, Wenqing

    2016-01-01

    Zhangjiangkou Mangrove National Nature Reserve is a subtropical wetland ecosystem in southeast coast of China, which is of dense population and rapid development. The concentrations, sources, and pollution assessment of trace metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Cr, Zn, As, and Hg) in surface sediment from 29 sites and the biota specimen were investigated for better ecological risk assessment and environmental management. The ranges of trace metals in mg/kg sediment were as follows: Cu (10.79–26.66), Cd (0.03–0.19), Pb (36.71–59.86), Cr (9.67–134.51), Zn (119.69–157.84), As (15.65–31.60), and Hg (0.00–0.08). The sequences of the bioaccumulation of studied metals are Zn > Cu > As > Cr > Pb > Cd > Hg with few exceptions. Cluster analysis and principal component analysis revealed that the trace metals in the studied area mainly derived from anthropogenic activities, such as industrial effluents, agricultural waste, and domestic sewage. Pollution load index and geoaccumulation index were calculated for trace metals in surface sediments, which indicated unpolluted status in general except Pb, Cr, and As. PMID:27795956

  1. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En-vironmental...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....... Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  2. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  3. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  4. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  5. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  6. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  7. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  8. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  9. Latest developments in foodborne pathogen risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Membré, Jeanne Marie; Guillou, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologie...

  10. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment system

    OpenAIRE

    Marfo, Sariyu; Ehler, Shane; Fields, Ryan; Negron, Jamaries Benitez; Skopak, Shane; Junek, John; Zarzaca, Justin; Perrotta, Robert; Team CQ Alpha; Cohort 311-141A

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept con...

  11. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  12. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  13. Biodiversity Risk Assessment of Protected Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalija Rudzkienė

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems are characterised by the most abundant biodiversity because there are the best conditions for existence of various species of plants, animals and various other organisms there. Generally, in the last decades a lot of attention is given to biodiversity, and scientific research draws attention to an increasing loss of biodiversity. Biodiversity measurements are needed in order to understand biodiversity changes and to control them. Measurements and assessments of biodiversity of ecosystems reveal the condition of an ecosystem of a certain territory as well as create the basis for a strategy of preserving separate species. A lot of indices for assessing biodiversity risk have been created in the last decades. Integrated indices are composed when joining indices, and one of them is the integrated biodiversity risk assessment index NABRAI (National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. This article analyses the principles of creating biodiversity risk indices, possible alternatives of components (variables of biodiversity resources, impact and response indices, and their suitability at the national level. Assessment and ranking methodology, adapted for assessment of biodiversity risk of local protected territories and for ranking of territories, is presented. Report data of directorates of Lithuanian national and regional parks are used for the analysis, as well as the data served as a basis to calculate integrated biodiversity risk indices of several protected territories of Lithuania.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.65.3.4478

  14. Heavy metals health risk assessment for population via consumption of vegetables grown in old mining area; a case study: Banat County, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gogoasa Ioan

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to measure the levels of heavy metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cd and Pb found in common vegetables (parsley, carrot, onion, lettuce, cucumber and green beans grown in contaminated mining areas compared with those grown in reference clear area and to determine their potential detrimental effects via calculation of the daily metal intake (DImetal and Target Hazard Quotients (THQ for normal daily consumption of these vegetables, for male and female gender. Results Compared with the reference in contaminated areas, soil and plant contents of all analyzed metals are higher, usually over normally content for Mn, Zn, Cu, Cd and Pb. Particularly, in soil, higher values than intervention threshold values (ITV were found for Cu and Pb and higher than maximum allowable limits (MAL for Zn, Cu, Cd and Pb for parsley roots and leaves, carrot roots, cabbage, lettuce and cucumber. DImetal and THQ values for male and female were calculated for each vegetable and metal and for which oral reference doses exist. The combined THQ values calculated are concerning in that they are usually below the safe level of THQ Conclusion The results of this study regarding metal contents in soils, vegetables, DImetal and THQ suggest that the consumption of some vegetables (especially parsley, carrot and cabbage and less for lettuce, cucumber and green beans is not free of risks in these areas. The complex THQ parameter use in health risk assessment of heavy metals provides a better image than using only a simple parameter (contents of metals in soils and vegetables.

  15. Assessing the Roles of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics on Future Risks to Water Stress: A Large-Ensemble Pilot Case for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C. W.; Blanc, E.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Arndt, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Reilly, J. M.; Jacoby, H.

    2013-12-01

    The fate of natural and managed water resources is controlled to varying degrees by interlinked energy, agricultural, and environmental systems, as well as the hydro-climate cycles. The need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional change calls for likelihood quantification of outcomes via the representation of uncertainty - to the fullest extent possible. A hybrid approach of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework provides probabilistic projections of regional climate change - generated in tandem with consistent socio-economic projections. A Water Resources System (WRS) then tracks water allocation and availability across these competing demands. As such, the IGSM-WRS is an integrated tool that provides quantitative insights on the risks and sustainability of water resources over large river basins. This pilot project focuses the IGSM-WRS on Southeast Asia (Figure 1). This region presents exceptional challenges toward sustainable water resources given its texture of basins that traverse and interconnect developing nations as well as large, ascending economies and populations - such as China and India. We employ the IGSM-WRS in a large ensemble of outcomes spanning hydro-climatic, economic, and policy uncertainties. For computational efficiency, a Gaussian Quadrature procedure sub-samples these outcomes (Figure 2). The IGSM-WRS impacts are quantified through frequency distributions of water stress changes. The results allow for interpretation of: the effects of policy measures; impacts on food production; and the value of design flexibility of infrastructure/institutions. An area of model development and exploration is the feedback of water-stress shocks to economic activity (i.e. GDP and land use). We discuss these further results (where possible) as well as other efforts to refine: uncertainty methods, greater basin-level and climate detail, and process-level representation glacial melt-water sources. Figure 1 Figure 2

  16. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  17. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  18. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  19. Human Health Risk Assessment due to Global Warming – A Case Study of the Gulf Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junaid Rafi Chaudhary

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25°E to 61.875°E and latitude 9.278°N to 27.833°N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary

  20. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  1. AN EXAMINATION OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF RISK ON VIABILITY ASSESSMENTS FOR FINANCIALLY DISTRESSED FIRMS: THE CASE OF PROFESSIONAL USER GROUPS OF COMPANY ACCOUNTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Constantinides

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Risky conditions in conjunction with individuals' attitude to risk would normally lead to risk-averse behavior (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980. In this research, risk-averse behavior (the dependent variable relates to the "going-concern" opinion offinancially distressed firms. A logistic regression model used as predictors of risk measurements (risky conditions and risk attitude correctly predicts 97.6% of the nongoing concern opinions. In conclusion, the empirical evidence demonstrates a subtle impact of risk on individuals' behavior despite the fact that distinct statistical tests do not fully support this.

  2. The margin of internal exposure (MOIE) concept for dermal risk assessment based on oral toxicity data - A case study with caffeine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessems, Jos G M; Paini, Alicia; Gajewska, Monika; Worth, Andrew

    2017-03-10

    Route-to-route extrapolation is a common part of human risk assessment. Data from oral animal toxicity studies are commonly used to assess the safety of various but specific human dermal exposure scenarios. Using theoretical examples of various user scenarios, it was concluded that delineation of a generally applicable human dermal limit value is not a practicable approach, due to the wide variety of possible human exposure scenarios, including its consequences for internal exposure. This paper uses physiologically based kinetic (PBK) modelling approaches to predict animal as well as human internal exposure dose metrics and for the first time, introduces the concept of Margin of Internal Exposure (MOIE) based on these internal dose metrics. Caffeine was chosen to illustrate this approach. It is a substance that is often found in cosmetics and for which oral repeated dose toxicity data were available. A rat PBK model was constructed in order to convert the oral NOAEL to rat internal exposure dose metrics, i.e. the area under the curve (AUC) and the maximum concentration (Cmax), both in plasma. A human oral PBK model was constructed and calibrated using human volunteer data and adapted to accommodate dermal absorption following human dermal exposure. Use of the MOIE approach based on internal dose metrics predictions provides excellent opportunities to investigate the consequences of variations in human dermal exposure scenarios. It can accommodate within-day variation in plasma concentrations and is scientifically more robust than assuming just an exposure in mg/kg bw/day. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  4. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess

  5. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess ri

  6. Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radionovs Andrejs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Being able to evaluate risks is an important task in many areas of human activity: economics, ecology, etc. Usually, environmental risk assessment is carried out on the basis of multiple and sometimes conflicting factors. Using multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM methodology is one of the possible ways to solve the problem. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP is one of the most commonly used MCDM methods, which combines subjective and personal preferences in the risk assessment process. However, the AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type of uncertainty and requires the use of decision making under those uncertainties. In this paper, work with uncertainty is considered using fuzzy-based techniques. The paper also analyses the ecological risk assessment towards human health in case of gaseous substance escape at a chemical factory using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.

  7. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  8. Pesticide use and off-site risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.

    2016-01-01

    Pesticide use and off-site risk assessment: a case study of glyphosate fate in Chinese Loess soil Xiaomei Yang Abstract: Repeated applications of pesticide may contaminate the soil and water, threatening their quality within

  9. Pesticide use and off-site risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.

    2016-01-01

    Pesticide use and off-site risk assessment: a case study of glyphosate fate in Chinese Loess soil Xiaomei Yang Abstract: Repeated applications of pesticide may contaminate the soil and water, threatening their quality within

  10. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  11. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  12. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  13. Organic liquids storage tanks volatile organic compounds (VOCS) emissions dispersion and risk assessment in developing countries: the case of Dar-es-Salaam City, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Msafiri M

    2006-05-01

    . Emission rates for benzene, toluene, and xylene were used as input to CALPUFF air dispersion model for the calculation of spatial downwind concentrations from area sources. By using global positioning system (GPS) and geographical information system (GIS) the spatial benzene concentration contributed by organic liquid storage tanks has been mapped for Dar-es-Salaam City. Highest concentrations for all the three toxic pollutants were observed at Kigamboni area, possibly because the area is located at the wind prevailing direction from the locations of the storage tanks. The model predicted concentrations downwind from the sources were below tolerable concentrations by WHO and US-OSHA. The highest 24 hrs averaging time benzene concentration was used for risk assessment in order to determine maximum carcinogenic risk amongst the population exposed at downwind. Established risk for adult and children at 2.9x10(-3) and 1.9x10(-3) respectively, are higher than the acceptable US-EPA risk of 1x10(-6). It is very likely that the actual VOCs concentrations in some urban areas in Tanzania including Dar-es-Salaam City are much higher than the levels reported in this study when other sources such as petrol stations and motor vehicles on the roads are considered. Tanzania Government therefore need to put in place: an air quality policy and legislation, establish air quality guidelines and acquire facilities which will enable the implementation of air quality monitoring and management programmes.

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  15. Using ambient vibration measurements for risk assessment at an urban scale: from numerical proof of concept to Beirut case study (Lebanon)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salameh, Christelle; Bard, Pierre-Yves; Guillier, Bertrand; Harb, Jacques; Cornou, Cécile; Gérard, Jocelyne; Almakari, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Post-seismic investigations repeatedly indicate that structures having frequencies close to foundation soil frequencies exhibit significantly heavier damages (Caracas 1967; Mexico 1985; Pujili, Ecuador 1996; L'Aquila 2009). However, observations of modal frequencies of soils and buildings in a region or within a current seismic risk analysis are not fully considered together, even when past earthquakes have demonstrated that coinciding soil and building frequencies leads to greater damage. The present paper thus focuses on a comprehensive numerical analysis to investigate the effect of coincidence between site and building frequencies. A total of 887 realistic soil profiles are coupled with a set of 141 single-degree-of-freedom elastoplastic oscillators, and their combined (nonlinear) response is computed for both linear and nonlinear soil behaviors, for a large number (60) of synthetic input signals with various PGA levels and frequency contents. The associated damage is quantified on the basis of the maximum displacement as compared to both yield and ultimate post-elastic displacements, according to the RISK-UE project recommendations (Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi in Bull Earthq Eng 4(4):415-443, 2006), and compared with the damage obtained in the case of a similar building located on rock. The correlation between this soil/rock damage increment and a number of simplified mechanical and loading parameters is then analyzed using a neural network approach. The results emphasize the key role played by the building/soil frequency ratio even when both soil and building behave nonlinearly; other important parameters are the PGA level, the soil/rock velocity contrast and the building ductility. A numerical investigation based on simulation of ambient noise for the whole set of 887 profiles also indicates that the amplitude of H/ V ratio may be considered as a satisfactory proxy for site amplification when applied to measurements at urban scale. A very easy implementation

  16. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  17. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  18. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  19. Risk assessment of work at height in construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letice Dalla Lana

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The construction presents alarming statistics when it comes to the risks that these workers are subject. Higher risks still present work at a height where the fall is the biggest causal factor of fatal accidents. Thus the managements of companies who seek to reduce these risks and this has going for technical evaluation of operational risks. Three of these techniques are discussed in this article: PHA, FTA and CIT. The goal is to determine which one is most effective in assessing the risks of working at height in construction. The methodology used was case study of three works on three different construction of Santa Maria, RS. For a better understanding of the phenomenon suggests that the techniques are used together, but the CIT has provided a better quantitative analysis of incidents and the PHA contributes towards already establish the possible effects that each risk may have.

  20. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  1. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  2. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  3. Risk assessment of an old landfill regarding the potential of gaseous emissions--a case study based on bioindication, FT-IR spectroscopy and thermal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tintner, Johannes; Smidt, Ena; Böhm, Katharina; Matiasch, Lydia

    2012-12-01

    Risk assessment of two sections (I and II) of an old landfill (ALH) in Styria (Austria) in terms of reactivity of waste organic matter and the related potential of gaseous emissions was performed using conventional parameters and innovative tools to verify their effectiveness in practice. The ecological survey of the established vegetation at the landfill surface (plant sociological relevés) indicated no relevant emissions over a longer period of time. Statistical evaluation of conventional parameters reveals that dissolved organic carbon (DOC), respiration activity (RA(4)), loss of ignition (LOI) and total inorganic carbon (TIC) mostly influence the variability of the gas generation sum (GS(21)). According to Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectral data and the results of the classification model the reactivity potential of the investigated sections is very low which is in accordance with the results of plant sociological relevés and biological tests. The interpretation of specific regions in the FT-IR spectra was changed and adapted to material characteristics. Contrary to mechanically-biologically treated (MBT) materials, where strong aliphatic methylene bands indicate reactivity, they are rather assigned to the C-H vibrations of plastics in old landfill materials. This assumption was confirmed by thermal analysis and the characteristic heat flow profile of plastics containing landfill samples. Therefore organic carbon contents are relatively high compared to other stable landfills as shown by a prediction model for TOC contents based on heat flow profiles and partial least squares regression (PLS-R). The stability of the landfill samples, expressed by the relation of CO(2) release and enthalpies, was compared to unreactive landfills, archeological samples, earthlike materials and hardly degradable organic matter. Due to the material composition and the aging process the landfill samples are located between hardly degradable, but easily combustible

  4. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  5. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  6. A RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD OF THE WIRELESS NETWORK SECURITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhao Dongmei; Wang Changguang; Ma Jianfeng

    2007-01-01

    The core of network security is the risk assessment.In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security.The method,which combines Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method and fuzzy logical method,is applied to the risk assessment.Fuzzy logical method is applied to judge the important degree of each factor in the aspects of the probability,the influence and the uncontrollability,not to directly judge the important degree itself.The risk assessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method,the sort weight of the third layer is calculated by fuzzy logical method.Finally,the important degree is calculated by AHP method.By comparing the important degree of each factor,the risk which can be controlled by taking measures is known.The study of the case shows that the method can be easily used to the risk assessment of the wireless network security and its results conform to the actual situation.

  7. Stroke risk factors, subtypes, and 30‑day case fatality in Abuja, Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stroke risk factors, subtypes, and 30‑day case fatality in Abuja, Nigeria. ... as well as brain computerized tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and carotid ... We also assessed case fatality and functional outcome at 30 days after stroke.

  8. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  9. A Case-Based System for Construction Project Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Lan-rong; ZHANG Jin-long

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a Case-Based system for assisting construction project managers in identifying risk factors and the corresponding construction project risk. The construction project risk identification model captures the case, acquired from previous completed construction projects and experience. A prototype is developed based on the proposed Case-Based system to determine risk factors along with their risk effects.

  10. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  11. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to many species in real ecosystems · extrapolating from acute to chronic or long term effects. The project was co-funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and The National Environmental Research Institute Summary In this report two factors are studied which have implications for the size of safety...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  12. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  13. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  14. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  15. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  16. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  18. Epidural catheterization in cardiac surgery: The 2012 risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas M Hemmerling

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: The risk assessment of epidural hematoma due to catheter placement in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is essential since its benefits have to be weighed against risks, such as the risk of paraplegia. We determined the risk of the catheter-related epidural hematoma in cardiac surgery based on the cases reported in the literature up to September 2012. Materials and Methods: We included all reported cases of epidural catheter placement for cardiac surgery in web and in literature from 1966 to September 2012. Risks of other medical and non-medical activities were retrieved from recent reviews or national statistical reports. Results: Based on our analysis the risk of catheter-related epidural hematoma is 1 in 5493 with a 95% confidence interval (CI of 1/970-1/31114. The risk of catheter-related epidural hematoma in cardiac surgery is similar to the risk in the general surgery population at 1 in 6,628 (95% CI 1/1,170-1/37,552. Conclusions: The present risk calculation does not justify not offering epidural analgesia as part of a multimodal analgesia protocol in cardiac surgery.

  19. A Hybrid Support Vector Machines and Two-dimensional Risk Matrix Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Fan Jiang; Junfei Chen

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the supply chain managements have been paid more and more attention. The supply chain risk management is an important content for enterprises implementing supply chain management. Therefore, how to measure the risk of supply chain is quite important. In this study, a supply chain risk evaluation model based on support vector machines and two-dimensional risk matrix is proposed. The index system of supply chain risk assessment which includes 14 indices is established. The case...

  20. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  1. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  2. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  3. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  4. [Ecological risk assessment of rural-urban ecotone based on landscape pattern: A case study in Daiyue District of Tai' an City, Shandong Province of East China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hao-Peng; Yu, Kai-Qin; Feng, Yong-jun

    2013-03-01

    Based on the remote sensing data in 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the land use type and landscape pattern in Daiyue District of Tai' an City from 2000 to 2010. The ecological risk index was built, that of the District was re-sampled and spatially interpolated, and the spatiotemporal pattern of the ecological risk in the rural-urban ecotone of the District was analyzed. In 2000-2010, the main variation trend of the land use type in the District was the shift from natural landscape to artificial landscape. The intensity of human disturbance was larger in cultivated land, garden plot, and forestland than in other landscape types, while the human disturbance in water area was smaller. The ecological loss degree of cultivated land and water area decreased somewhat, while that of the other land use types presented an increasing trend. The ecological risk distribution in the District was discrete in 2000 and 2010, but most centralized in 2005. The ecological risk of each ecological risk sub-area had an increasing trend in 2000-2005, but was in adverse in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010, the ecological risk of the District was mainly at medium level. Spatially, the distribution of the ecological risk in the District had an obvious differentiation, with an overall diffusive increasing from forestland as the center to the surrounding areas. In the District, the ecological risk was mainly at medium and higher levels, the area with lower ecological risk had an obvious dynamic change, while that with the lowest and highest ecological risk had less change.

  5. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  6. Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

  7. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  8. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  9. The concept of ignorance in a risk assessment and risk management context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aven, T., E-mail: terje.aven@uis.n [University of Stavanger (Norway); Steen, R. [University of Stavanger (Norway)

    2010-11-15

    There are many definitions of ignorance in the context of risk assessment and risk management. Most refer to situations in which there are lack of knowledge, poor basis for probability assignments and possible outcomes not (fully) known. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ignorance concept in this setting. Based on a set of risk and uncertainty features, we establish conceptual structures characterising the level of ignorance. These features include the definition of chances (relative frequency-interpreted probabilities) and the existence of scientific uncertainties. Based on these structures, we suggest a definition of ignorance linked to scientific uncertainties, i.e. the lack of understanding of how consequences of the activity are influenced by the underlying factors. In this way, ignorance can be viewed as a condition for applying the precautionary principle. The discussion is also linked to the use and boundaries of risk assessments in the case of large uncertainties, and the methods for classifying risk and uncertainty problems.

  10. Sperm competition games: a general approach to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, M A; Parker, G A

    1998-09-21

    We investigate game theory models of ejaculate expenditure by males in a species where there is a risk probability, q, that females will mate twice before laying a given set of eggs. With frequency 1-q females mate just once; then males optimally ejaculate an arbitrary minimum amount of sperm. The paper extends the analysis of Parker et al. (1997) in which males have limited information about the three risk states of the female: 0 (virgins which will mate now but not again), 1 (virgins which will mate now and then once more), and 2 (once-mated females who will mate now but not again). We derive a general structure for finding ESSs under imperfect information about states, and examine two special cases in which males know the overall risk probability q, but have imperfect knowledge of the states (0, 1, 2). In Case 1, males cannot distinguish between states 0 and 1 but have limited information about state 2. As their information increases, so does the difference in sperm allocation, with more going to females assessed as mated (state 2) than to females assessed as virgins (0, 1). This difference decreases with q in a species, but the average ejaculate expenditure increases with q. Even for small amounts of information, the behaviour as q-->0 is different from that predicted for zero information. In Case 2, males have perfect information about state 2, but limited information about states 0, 1. This has a major effect if q is small: males effectively behave as if they had perfect information by giving equal amounts of sperm to females assessed as 1 as those assessed to be 2, while giving a minimum amount to females assessed as 0. Ejaculate expenditures generally increase with the overall species-level risk q. A result common to both cases is that even a small amount of information allows more strategic choice than the zero information case and hence qualitatively different behaviour.

  11. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  12. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  13. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  14. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  15. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  16. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  17. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  18. Automating defence generation for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Efficient risk assessment requires automation of its most tedious tasks: identification of vulnerabilities, attacks that can exploit these vulnerabilities, and countermeasures that can mitigate the attacks. E.g., the attack tree generation by policy invalidation approach looks at systematic automati

  19. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  20. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  1. Risk assessment as an argumentation game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prakken, Henry; Ionita, Dan; Wieringa, Roel; Leite, J.; Son, T.C.; Torrini, P.; Van Der Torre, L.; Woltran, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the idea that IT security risk assessment can be formalized as an argumentation game in which assessors argue about how the system can be attacked by a threat agent and defended by the assessors. A system architecture plus assumptions about the environment is specified as an ASPI

  2. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  3. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  4. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  5. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM

    2000-01-01

    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  6. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  7. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  8. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  9. A fully-automated software pipeline for integrating breast density and parenchymal texture analysis for digital mammograms: parameter optimization in a case-control breast cancer risk assessment study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yuanjie; Wang, Yan; Keller, Brad M.; Conant, Emily; Gee, James C.; Kontos, Despina

    2013-02-01

    Estimating a woman's risk of breast cancer is becoming increasingly important in clinical practice. Mammographic density, estimated as the percent of dense (PD) tissue area within the breast, has been shown to be a strong risk factor. Studies also support a relationship between mammographic texture and breast cancer risk. We have developed a fullyautomated software pipeline for computerized analysis