From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

2015-10-01

Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

2008-01-01

Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanorsdale, C.R.

1991-01-01

The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

2014-12-01

Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

2010-01-01

The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

New approaches in human health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

Non-animal approaches for consumer safety risk assessments: Unilever's scientific research programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmichael, Paul; Davies, Michael; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; Fletcher, Samantha; Gilmour, Nicola; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Merolla, Leona; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona; Westmoreland, Carl

2009-12-01

Non-animal based approaches to risk assessment are now routinely used for assuring consumer safety for some endpoints (such as skin irritation) following considerable investment in developing and applying new methods over the past 20 years. Unilever's research programme into non-animal approaches for safety assessment is currently focused on the application of new technologies to risk assessments in the areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhalation toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biological and chemical processes that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement with EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, carcinoGENOMICS), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. COLIPA, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US 'Human Toxicology Project' consortium). 2009 FRAME.

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gobas, Frank A. P. C.; Mayer, Philipp; Parkerton, Thomas F.

2018-01-01

activity approach, its strengths and limitations, and provides examples of how this concept may be applied to the management of single chemicals and chemical mixtures. The examples demonstrate that the chemical activity approach provides a useful framework for 1) compiling and evaluating exposure......To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article describes the chemical...... assessment. The article further illustrates that the chemical activity approach can support an adaptive management strategy for environmental stewardship of chemicals where “safe” chemical activities are established based on toxicological studies and presented as guidelines for environmental quality...

A comprehensive approach to benefit-risk assessment in drug development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarac, Sinan B; Rasmussen, Christian H; Rasmussen, Morten A.

2012-01-01

Major regulatory agencies, for example, FDA and EMA, have started to request comprehensive benefit-risk analyses of pharmaceutical products prior to approval or labelling expansion. The purpose of this study is to develop a generally applicable and reliable data-driven benefit-risk assessment......) discussion and formulation of an overall conclusion. To reduce the impact of subjective judgements, scores are assigned to each criterion on the basis of objective information (data) wherever possible. The proposed benefit-risk evaluation approach offers comprehensive, data-driven assessments that can...... method, where two or more drugs/doses can be compared. Our aim is to formulate an approach that is simple to apply, allows direct comparison of different types of risks and benefits, and is tailored for application in different disease areas both during clinical development and in the marketing approval...

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

1992-07-01

deciding upon the granting of permits for landfill sites or the discharge of toxic chemicals to water or air and in doing so they must take into account the hydrology, geology and climate of the specific locality. While the basic approach to chemical risk assessment will be the same, irrespective of the specific objective for which the assessment is carried out, the details will vary as a function of: the product type (pharmaceutical, pesticide, industrial chemical, etc.), the target population of interest (patient, environment, consumer, worker, etc.) and the exposure scenario (global, international, national, local)

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, Patrick

1992-01-01

deciding upon the granting of permits for landfill sites or the discharge of toxic chemicals to water or air and in doing so they must take into account the hydrology, geology and climate of the specific locality. While the basic approach to chemical risk assessment will be the same, irrespective of the specific objective for which the assessment is carried out, the details will vary as a function of: the product type (pharmaceutical, pesticide, industrial chemical, etc.), the target population of interest (patient, environment, consumer, worker, etc.) and the exposure scenario (global, international, national, local)

New approaches in human health risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled Abass

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts – adaptation of traditional approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahnel, J; Fleischer, T; Seitz, S B

2013-01-01

Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.

Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

[DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

Science.gov (United States)

Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

1999-01-01

A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đapić Mirko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.

Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

Science.gov (United States)

When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: Report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Madsen, C.B.; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.; Gendel, S.M.; Houben, G.F.; Hourihane, J.OB.; Mackie, A.; Mills, E.N.C.; Nørhede, P.; Taylor, S.L.; Crevel, R.W.R.

2009-01-01

A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

2013-09-15

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

2007-11-15

This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

2013-07-01

The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

2013-01-01

The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

2015-01-01

Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

1993-01-01

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

A tiered approach for probabilistic ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zolezzi, M.; Nicolella, C.; Tarazona, J.V.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a tiered methodology for probabilistic ecological risk assessment. The proposed approach starts from deterministic comparison (ratio) of single exposure concentration and threshold or safe level calculated from a dose-response relationship, goes through comparison of probabilistic distributions that describe exposure values and toxicological responses of organisms to the chemical of concern, and finally determines the so called distribution-based quotients (DBQs). In order to illustrate the proposed approach, soil concentrations of 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene (1,2,4- TCB) measured in an industrial contaminated site were used for site-specific probabilistic ecological risks assessment. By using probabilistic distributions, the risk, which exceeds a level of concern for soil organisms with the deterministic approach, is associated to the presence of hot spots reaching concentrations able to affect acutely more than 50% of the soil species, while the large majority of the area presents 1,2,4- TCB concentrations below those reported as toxic [it

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

2014-08-01

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-17

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2012-0110] An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft regulatory guide; request for comment. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory...

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

An approach for risk informed safety culture assessment for Canadian nuclear power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

2010-01-01

One of the most important components of effective safety and risk management for nuclear power stations is a healthy safety culture. DNV has developed an approach for risk informed safety culture assessment that combines two complementary paradigms for safety and risk management: loss prevention - for preventing and intervening in accidents; and critical function management - for achieving safety and performance goals. Combining these two paradigms makes it possible to provide more robust systems for safety management and to support a healthy safety culture. This approach is being applied to safety culture assessment in partnership with a Canadian nuclear utility. (author)

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

2017-07-07

The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

Science.gov (United States)

Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

2015-01-01

Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. PMID:26316770

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

2018-03-01

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

Validity of various epidemiological approaches to assessing radon health risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrath, S.M.

1990-01-01

In this paper various epidemiologic study designs are defined and evaluated for their utility in assessing radon health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are addressed. Common pitfalls and errors of epidemiologic method are delineated with examples of causes and remedies

Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

2002-01-01

Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

Use of traits-based bioassessment approaches in biomonitoring and ecological risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brink, van den P.J.; Alexander, A.; Desrosiers, M.; Goedkoop, W.; Goethals, P.L.M.; Liess, M.; Dyer, S.

2011-01-01

We discuss the application of traits-based bioassessment approaches in retrospective bioassessment as well as in prospective ecological risk assessments in regulatory frameworks. Both approaches address the interaction between species and stressors and their consequences at different levels of

An approach to incorporate risks into a product's life-cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pirhonen, P.

1995-01-01

Life-cycle assessment is usually based on regular discharges that occur at a more or less constant rate. Nevertheless, the more factors that are taken into account in the LCA the better picture it gives on the environmental aspects of a product. In this study an approach to incorporate accidental releases into a products' life-cycle assessment was developed. In this approach accidental releases are divided into two categories. The first category consists of those unplanned releases which occur with a predicted level and frequency. Due to the high frequency and small release size at a time, these accidental releases can be compared to continuous emissions. Their global impacts are studied in this approach. Accidental releases of the second category are sudden, unplanned releases caused by exceptional situations, e.g. technical failure, action error or disturbances in process conditions. These releases have a singular character and local impacts are typical of them. As far as the accidental releases of the second category are concerned, the approach introduced in this study results in a risk value for every stage of a life-cycle, the sum of which is a risk value for the whole life-cycle. Risk value is based on occurrence frequencies of incidents and potential environmental damage caused by releases. Risk value illustrates the level of potential damage caused by accidental releases related to the system under study and is meant to be used for comparison of these levels of two different products. It can also be used to compare the risk levels of different stages of the life-cycle. An approach was illustrated using petrol as an example product. The whole life-cycle of petrol from crude oil production to the consumption of petrol was studied

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylvie Briand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret M. MacDonell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leyla V. Kaufman

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

A 3S Risk ?3SR? Assessment Approach for Nuclear Power: Safety Security and Safeguards.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forrest, Robert; Reinhardt, Jason Christian; Wheeler, Timothy A.; Williams, Adam David

2017-11-01

Safety-focused risk analysis and assessment approaches struggle to adequately include malicious, deliberate acts against the nuclear power industry's fissile and waste material, infrastructure, and facilities. Further, existing methods do not adequately address non- proliferation issues. Treating safety, security, and safeguards concerns independently is inefficient because, at best, it may not take explicit advantage of measures that provide benefits against multiple risk domains, and, at worst, it may lead to implementations that increase overall risk due to incompatibilities. What is needed is an integrated safety, security and safeguards risk (or "3SR") framework for describing and assessing nuclear power risks that can enable direct trade-offs and interactions in order to inform risk management processes -- a potential paradigm shift in risk analysis and management. These proceedings of the Sandia ePRA Workshop (held August 22-23, 2017) are an attempt to begin the discussions and deliberations to extend and augment safety focused risk assessment approaches to include security concerns and begin moving towards a 3S Risk approach. Safeguards concerns were not included in this initial workshop and are left to future efforts. This workshop focused on four themes in order to begin building out a the safety and security portions of the 3S Risk toolkit: 1. Historical Approaches and Tools 2. Current Challenges 3. Modern Approaches 4. Paths Forward and Next Steps This report is organized along the four areas described above, and concludes with a summary of key points. 2 Contact: rforres@sandia.gov; +1 (925) 294-2728

Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fahrni J

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Jennifer Fahrni,1 Marc Husmann,2 Silvia B Gretener,3 Hong H Keo1 1Division of Angiology, Medical University Clinic, Kantonsspital Aarau AG, Aarau, Switzerland; 2Clinic for Angiology, University Hospital, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland; 3Clinic for Angiology Oberaargau, Langenthal, Switzerland Abstract: Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. Keywords: thrombosis, hemorrhage, risk assessment 

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

2013-08-01

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: The Australian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haddad, S.

1994-01-01

The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss cur-rent and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and, environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from are think in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications

Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: the Australian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haddad, S.

1994-01-01

The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss current and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from a rethink in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications. 8 refs., 2 tabs

A Fuzzy-FMEA Risk Assessment Approach for Offshore Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shafiee

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for risk and reliability analysis. However, several limitations are associated with its implementation in offshore windfarms: (i the failure data gathered from SCADA system is often missing or unreliable, and hence, the assessment information of the three risk factors (i.e., severity, occurrence, and fault detection are mainly based onexperts’ knowledge; (ii it is rather difficult for experts to precisely evaluate the risk factors; (iii the relative importance among the risk factors is not taken into consideration, and hence, the results may not necessarily represent the true risk priorities; and etc. To overcome these drawbacks and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, we develop a fuzzy-FMEA approach for risk and failure mode analysis in offshore wind turbine systems. The information obtained from the experts is expressed using fuzzy linguistics terms, and a grey theory analysis is proposed to incorporate the relative importance of the riskfactors into the determination of risk priority of failure modes. The proposed approach is applied to an offshore wind turbine system with sixteen mechanical, electrical and auxiliary assemblies, and the results are compared with the traditional FMEA.

Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

1995-03-01

Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

Science.gov (United States)

Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

2015-12-01

Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L -1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence - as cell numbers or biomass - rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

1995-01-01

The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

Chemical Exposure Assessment Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory: A risk based approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephenson, D.J.

1996-01-01

The University of California Contract And DOE Order 5480.10 require that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) perform health hazard assessments/inventories of all employee workplaces. In response to this LANL has developed the Chemical Exposure Assessment Program. This program provides a systematic risk-based approach to anticipation, recognition, evaluation and control of chemical workplace exposures. Program implementation focuses resources on exposures with the highest risks for causing adverse health effects. Implementation guidance includes procedures for basic characterization, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative validation, and recommendations and reevaluation. Each component of the program is described. It is shown how a systematic method of assessment improves documentation, retrieval, and use of generated exposure information

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

A study on graded approach for risk assessment of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Tatsuro; Kohata, Yuuji; Takebe, Kazumi; Tamauchi, Yoshikazu; Hayashi, Kazuya; Kurosu, Katsuya

2005-01-01

In a reprocessing plant, radioactive materials exist in several chemical processes and storage facilities, therefore we should evaluate risks of many events with various types, scenarios, frequencies and consequences in order to assess total risk of the plant. In order to assess risks of many events efficiently and effectively, the 'Graded Approach' should be applied to the assessment method taking account of importance of the consequence, complexity of scenarios and necessitated uncertainty. Therefore, we have developed a simplified quantitative method, so-called the 'improved risk index method', based on the 'risk index method' recommended by US NRC as qualitative risk evaluation method for 'Integrated safety analysis (ISA)' of fuel cycle facilities, to enhance quantitability, consistency and traceability in evaluation. The results of the 'improved risk index method' well agree with the detailed PSA in spite of the simplification. We will use this method in combination with the detailed PSA method, and will use the results for risk-informed management/regulation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)

A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

2018-05-03

The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Approaches and methods of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, W.D.

1983-01-01

The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

2009-07-01

A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

2010-08-01

Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

2015-10-26

Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnes G. Oomen

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS, as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

1994-08-01

This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources

Risk Assessment of Wastewater Collection Performance Using the Fuzzy Decision-making Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maedeh Asgarian

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Wastewater collection network simulation in normal conditions dose not provide performance assessment in unusual circumstances. In this paper, a model has been developed for risk assessment of wastewater collection systems to manage their performance under natural or man-made critical conditions. In this model, certain criteria were defined, fuzzy MADM techniques were exploited, and a questionnaire was employed to measure such risk parameters as the probability of threats, the severity of their impacts, and the vulnerability of the network components. Based on the calculated magnitude of the risks, the threats and hazards were classified into groups ranging from low-risk to high-risk threats. The approaches adopted to combat the risks were also classified into the following three categories: "to deal with the risk", "risk shifting", and "risk taking". This process was implemented for the wastewater collection system in Shahrak-Gharb District in Tehran as a case study. ‘Introduction of chemical pollutants into the sewers’ and ‘drastic changes in wastewater quality’ were identified as the most threatening crises for the district and the ‘risk reduction strategy’ was proposed for combating the critical conditions in this district.

An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shikha Verma

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

1994-08-01

This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA`s) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

1998-01-01

This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

Using a risk assessment approach to handle 'hot spot' remediation in an environmentally-sensitive habitat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BenKinney, M.T.; Guiseppi-Eli, A.; Novick, N.J.; Naro, P.A.

1993-01-01

A number of different approaches have been used to address site restoration following an accidental discharge or spill. Removal of all contamination with subsequent site restoration has been a favored approach. The authors' presentation will focus on a case study where a risk assessment approach was used to establish the criteria for is the restoration. Waste oil from a gasoline service station had leaked, over time, into a swale system in an ecologically-sensitive coastal forested habitat. The initial regulatory recommendation was to excavate all soils and restore the area. Their initial investigations revealed that only a limited area was heavily contaminated, predominantly with paraffinic hydrocarbons. They used a risk assessment approach coupled with sediment elutriate testing to demonstrate that leaving the lightly contaminated material in place would not present an environmental hazard from the waste oil, while causing less damage to the swale bed and forested area. Bioassay tests were conducted on sediments collected along the length of the swale from the areas with the highest remaining hydrocarbon concentrations using fathead minnow and Daphnia magna. The bioassay studies confirmed the results of the risk assessment which determined that no environmental toxicity would be expected from allowing lightly contaminated material to remain in-place at this site

A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

Risk approaches in setting radiation standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whipple, C.

1984-01-01

This paper discusses efforts to increase the similarity of risk regulation approaches for radiation and chemical carcinogens. The risk assessment process in both cases involves the same controversy over the extrapolation from high to low doses and dose rates, and in both cases the boundaries between science and policy in risk assessment are indistinct. Three basic considerations are presented to approach policy questions: the economic efficiency of the regulatory approach, the degree of residual risk, and the technical opportunities for risk control. It is the author's opinion that if an agency can show that its standard-setting policies are consistent with those which have achieved political and judicial acceptance in other contexts, the greater the predictability of the regulatory process and the stability of this process

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

2011-05-01

Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Carcinogenic risk assessment and management of ionising radiation, asbestos and nickel: a comparative approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, T.; Lepicard, S.; Oudiz, A.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Gadbois, S.

2000-01-01

The objective of this study is to identify the similarities as well as the differences of risk assessment and management of ionizing radiation, asbestos and nickel in France. The comparison has been performed at three levels of analysis: concepts, regulation and practices. Ionizing radiation (IR) is compared with asbestos as far as occupational exposure is concerned and to nickel and nickel compounds as far as general population exposure is concerned. The three main stages of risk assessment were considered: hazard identification, exposure-risk relationship, exposure assessment. Alternative risk management policies were reviewed. The main results are the following: At the conceptual level, the risk assessment and management frameworks present many similarities: exposure-risk relationships exist, and low dose extrapolation is considered as legitimate. Comparison of protection strategies can be carried out with reference to the 'optimization' principle developed for IR. At the regulatory level, the status of the IR dose limits differs from the status of the exposure limit values set for asbestos and nickel. For IR, compliance with the dose limit cannot be seen as the final objective of protection: the burden is put on the requirement to maintain the doses as low as reasonably achievable, social and economical factors being taken into account (ALARA). In most of the situations, actual exposure to IR in industry appear to be significantly lower than the dose limit. In the case of asbestos and nickel, the exposure limit values are very low and compliance with the limits is indeed a quite ambitious objective. At the practical level, some noticeable differences exist as far as the decision aiding procedures are concerned. A process which may be considered as an ALARA approach is applied, in the case of nickel: seeking for the 'best available technologies', defining and implementing with stakeholdes regional plans for air quality. In the case of asbestos, the predictive

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Dose related risk and effect assessment model (DREAM) -- A more realistic approach to risk assessment of offshore discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnsen, S.; Furuholt, E.

1995-01-01

Risk assessment of discharges from offshore oil and gas production to the marine environment features determination of potential environmental concentration (PEC) levels and no observed effect concentration (NOEC) levels. The PEC values are normally based on dilution of chemical components in the actual discharge source in the recipient, while the NOEC values are determined by applying a safety factor to acute toxic effects from laboratory tests. The DREAM concept focuses on realistic exposure doses as function of contact time and dilution, rather than fixed exposure concentrations of chemicals in long time exposure regimes. In its present state, the DREAM model is based on a number of assumptions with respect to the link between real life exposure doses and effects observed in laboratory tests. A research project has recently been initiated to develop the concept further, with special focus on chronic effects of different chemical compounds on the marine ecosystem. One of the questions that will be addressed is the link between exposure time, dose, concentration and effect. Validation of the safety factors applied for transforming acute toxic data into NOEC values will also be included. The DREAM model has been used by Statoil for risk assessment of discharges from new and existing offshore oil and gas production fields, and has been found to give a much more realistic results than conventional risk assessment tools. The presentation outlines the background for the DREAM approach, describes the model in its present state, discusses further developments and applications, and shows a number of examples on the performance of DREAM

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Ching Y. Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

2018-02-01

Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A shortened version of the THERP/Handbook approach to human reliability analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swain, A.D.

1986-01-01

The approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) known as THERP/Handbook has been applied to several probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and other complex systems. The approach is based on a thorough task analysis of the man-machine interfaces, including the interactions among the people, involved in the operations being assessed. The idea is to assess fully the underlying performance shaping factors (PSFs) and dependence effects which result either in reliable or unreliable human performance

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

2010-03-15

White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

Science.gov (United States)

Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

2011-01-01

leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaBelle, Michael

2012-01-01

This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

2018-04-25

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

2012-01-01

Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

2013-11-01

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

An approach to security risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Engells, Thomas E

2012-01-01

Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

2017-11-01

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority among health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above the threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX®. Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such

Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Islam, M.A.

2015-01-01

Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam

This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of

Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kubal

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nakstad Anders R

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caruso, Mark A.; Cheok, Michael C.; Cunningham, Mark A.; Holahan, Gary M.; King, Thomas L.; Parry, Gareth W.; Ramey-Smith, Ann M.; Rubin, Mark P.; Thadani, Ashok C.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses an acceptable approach that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has proposed for using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in making decisions on changes to the licensing basis of a nuclear power plant. First, the overall philosophy of risk-informed decision-making, and the process framework are described. The philosophy is encapsulated in five principles, one of which states that, if the proposed change leads to an increase in core damage frequency or risk, the increases must be small and consistent with the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Goal Policy Statement. The second part of the paper discusses the use of PRA to demonstrate that this principle has been met. The discussion focuses on the acceptance guidelines, and on comparison of the PRA results with those guidelines. The difficulties that arise because of limitations in scope and analytical uncertainties are discussed and approaches to accommodate these difficulties in the decision-making are described

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Approach to modeling of human performance for purposes of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swain, A.D.

1983-01-01

This paper describes the general approach taken in NUREG/CR-1278 to model human performance in sufficienct detail to permit probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plant operations. To show the basis for the more specific models in the above NUREG, a simplified model of the human component in man-machine systems is presented, the role of performance shaping factors is discussed, and special problems in modeling the cognitive aspect of behavior are described

Comparative risk assessment: an element for a more rational and ethical approach to radiation risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Danesi, P.R.

2006-01-01

Peaceful nuclear technologies are still perceived by a large fraction of the general public, the media as well as by some decision makers, as more risky than many other 'conventional' technologies. One of the approaches that can help bringing more rationality and ethics into the picture is to present the risk associated with radiation and nuclear technologies in the frame of correctly conducted comparative risk assessments. However, comparing different risks is not so straightforward because quantifying different risks on a comparable scale requires overcoming both conceptual and practical difficulties. Risk (R) can be expressed as the product of the probability (P) that a given undesired event, the risk, will occur, times the consequences of this event (C), i.e. R = P x C. Although in principle risks could be compared by simply ranking them according to the different values of R, this simplistic approach is not always possible because to correctly compare risks all factors, circumstances and assumptions should be mutually equivalent and quantified and the (often large) uncertainties taken into proper account. In the case of radiation risk, ICRP has assumed as valid the LNT model, (probability coefficient of 5 % per Sievert for attributable death from cancer) and selected the present equivalent dose limit of 1 mSv per year for public exposure. This dose corresponds to 50 lethal cancers by 1 million people exposed and is approximately equivalent (in terms of probability of death) to the risk of bicycling for 600 km, driving for 3200 km, crossing a busy road twice a day for 1 year, smoking 2.5 packets of cigarettes or being X-rayed once for kidney metabolism. However, according to many scientists on the basis of both epidemiological and biological results and considerations, the actual risk is far lower than that predicted by the LNT model. Nevertheless, the policies and myths that were created about half a century ago are still persisting and have lead the general

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study (Final Report, 2010)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study. This report outlines an approach to evaluate genomic data for use in risk assessment and a case study to ...

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Scolobig

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of

A risk-informed approach to the assessment of DHC initiation in pressure tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahoo, A.K.; Pandey, M.D.

2009-01-01

The delayed hydride cracking (DHC) of pressure tubes is a serious form of degradation in the reactor core. Flaws in pressure tubes generated by fretting or any other mechanism are potential stress raisers that could become sites of DHC initiation under right circumstances. CSA standard N285.8 recommends deterministic and probabilistic procedures for the assessment of potential for DHC initiation from planar flaws. The deterministic method is simple, but it lacks a risk-informed basis for the assessment. A full probabilistic method based on simulations is tedious to implement. This paper presents an innovative, semi-probabilistic method that bridges the gap between a simple deterministic analysis and complex simulations. In the proposed method, the deterministic assessment criterion of CSA N285.8 standard is calibrated to specified target probabilities of DHC initiation using the concept of partial factors. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it provides a practical, risk-informed basis for DHC initiation assessment while retaining the simplicity of the deterministic method. (author)

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

-economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-02-01

Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2016-01-01

A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.

2004-01-01

A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Xplicit, a novel approach in probabilistic spatiotemporally explicit exposure and risk assessment for plant protection products.

Science.gov (United States)

Schad, Thorsten; Schulz, Ralf

2011-10-01

The quantification of risk (the likelihood and extent of adverse effects) is a prerequisite in regulatory decision making for plant protection products and is the goal of the Xplicit project. In its present development stage, realism is increased in the exposure assessment (EA), first by using real-world data on, e.g., landscape factors affecting exposure, and second, by taking the variability of key factors into account. Spatial and temporal variability is explicitly addressed. Scale dependencies are taken into account, which allows for risk quantification at different scales, for example, at landscape scale, an overall picture of the potential exposure of nontarget organisms can be derived (e.g., for all off-crop habitats in a given landscape); at local scale, exposure might be relevant to assess recovery and recolonization potential; intermediate scales might best refer to population level and hence might be relevant for risk management decisions (e.g., individual off-crop habitats). The Xplicit approach is designed to comply with a central paradigm of probabilistic approaches, namely, that each individual case that is derived from the variability functions employed should represent a potential real-world case. This is mainly achieved by operating in a spatiotemporally explicit fashion. Landscape factors affecting the local exposure of habitats of nontarget species (i.e., receptors) are derived from geodatabases. Variability in time is resolved by operating at discrete time steps, with the probability of events (e.g., application) or conditions (e.g., wind conditions) defined in probability density functions (PDFs). The propagation of variability of parameters into variability of exposure and risk is done using a Monte Carlo approach. Among the outcomes are expectancy values on the realistic worst-case exposure (predicted environmental concentration [PEC]), the probability p that the PEC exceeds the ecologically acceptable concentration (EAC) for a given

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

2007-01-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollnagel, E.

2013-01-01

This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

Design of an environmental site assessment template for open radioactive site contamination : a radioecological risk approach and case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, T.

2004-01-01

To reduce redundancy, cost, and time, while at the same time ultimately increasing the effectiveness of the radioactive risk management process, a logical framework incorporating risk assessments (human cancer and environmental risks) into the environmental site assessment process was designed for radioactive open site contamination. Risk-based corrective action is becoming an increasingly more acceptable approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. In the past, cleanup goals were usually established without any regard to the risk involved, by mandating remediation goals based solely on maximum contamination levels. Now, a multi-stage environmental site assessment template has been developed on a radioecological approach. The template gives a framework for making environmentally sound decisions based on relevant regulations and guidelines. The first stage involves the comparison of the background screening activity level to the regulated activity level, the second stage involves the use of site-specific information to determine the risk involved with the contamination, and the third stage provides a remediation decision matrix based on results from the first two stages. This environmental site assessment template is unique because it incorporates the modified Canadian National Classification System for radioactive contaminated sites and two different types of risk assessments (human cancer risks and the newly designed ecological risk) into the decision making process. The template was used to assess a radiologically contaminated site at the Canadian Forces Base at Suffield (Alberta) as a case study, and it reaffirms the Department of National Defence's action as appropriate. This particular site is a Class 3, has an overall insignificant human cancer risk ( -6 ) and a low environmental risk, and conforms to all regulated guidelines. Currently, it is restricted and should be left as is, provided that the subsurface is not disturbed. (author)

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

2013-09-15

The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

2013-09-15

The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

2013-01-01

The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

2017-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Barry [Schering Agrochemicals Ltd., Chesterford Park Research Station, Saffron Walder, Essex (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies.

An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Barry

1992-01-01

The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies

Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L.

1998-01-01

The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

1998-07-01

The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

Development of a GIS approach to mining risk assessment. Supervising Scientist report 159

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boggs, G.S.

2001-01-01

A Geographic Information System (GIS) offers a means by which the data collected during the assessment of possible mining impacts can be stored and manipulated. A GIS that provides a central focus point for the storage, manipulation and retrieval of information generated by the investigation into the geomorphological impact of the ERA Jabiluka Mine has been developed. Implementing a flexible, GIS-centred approach to data management allows the data storage, manipulation and retrieval powers of GIS to be retained whilst maintaining access to the functionality contained within these other software packages. The GIS has also been linked to the DistFW hydrology model and SIBERIA landform evolution model, to provide a more spatial approach to assessing the impact of mining on the long-term landform evolution of a catchment. A GIS based rapid erosion assessment method has been developed and evaluated. The method allows the user to quickly acquire and evaluate existing data to assist in the planning of more detailed monitoring, modelling and erosion assessment programs. The rapid erosion assessment method is based on a simplified version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and allows the rapid parametrisation of the model from widely available land unit and elevation datasets. The rapid erosion assessment method is evaluated through the investigation of the effects of elevation data resolution on erosion predictions and field data validation. More detailed, quantitative risk assessment can be conducted using a combination of landform evolution modelling and basin analysis in a GIS framework. SIBERIA has been parameterized using field data from Ngarradj and applied to the catchment. Due to complexities of the catchment there were some difficulties with the hydrology component. However, the results indicate that SIBERIA is suitable and simulations showed little change in the catchment in the long term. Combining these with newly developed GIS tools to

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Beyond human error taxonomies in assessment of risk in sociotechnical systems: a new paradigm with the EAST 'broken-links' approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanton, Neville A; Harvey, Catherine

2017-02-01

Risk assessments in Sociotechnical Systems (STS) tend to be based on error taxonomies, yet the term 'human error' does not sit easily with STS theories and concepts. A new break-link approach was proposed as an alternative risk assessment paradigm to reveal the effect of information communication failures between agents and tasks on the entire STS. A case study of the training of a Royal Navy crew detecting a low flying Hawk (simulating a sea-skimming missile) is presented using EAST to model the Hawk-Frigate STS in terms of social, information and task networks. By breaking 19 social links and 12 task links, 137 potential risks were identified. Discoveries included revealing the effect of risk moving around the system; reducing the risks to the Hawk increased the risks to the Frigate. Future research should examine the effects of compounded information communication failures on STS performance. Practitioner Summary: The paper presents a step-by-step walk-through of EAST to show how it can be used for risk assessment in sociotechnical systems. The 'broken-links' method takes a systemic, rather than taxonomic, approach to identify information communication failures in social and task networks.

Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

2011-01-01

Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

2009-01-01

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, J.W.

1985-01-01

The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Approaches to the risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in food: a critical appraisal.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, J; Renwick, A G; Constable, A; Dybing, E; Müller, D J G; Schlatter, J; Slob, W; Tueting, W; van Benthem, J; Williams, G M; Wolfreys, A

2006-10-01

The present paper examines the particular difficulties presented by low levels of food-borne DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens, some of which may be difficult to eliminate completely from the diet, and proposes a structured approach for the evaluation of such compounds. While the ALARA approach is widely applicable to all substances in food that are both carcinogenic and genotoxic, it does not take carcinogenic potency into account and, therefore, does not permit prioritisation based on potential risk or concern. In the absence of carcinogenicity dose-response data, an assessment based on comparison with an appropriate threshold of toxicological concern may be possible. When carcinogenicity data from animal bioassays are available, a useful analysis is achieved by the calculation of margins of exposure (MOEs), which can be used to compare animal potency data with human exposure scenarios. Two reference points on the dose-response relationship that can be used for MOE calculation were examined; the T25 value, which is derived from linear extrapolation, and the BMDL10, which is derived from mathematical modelling of the dose-response data. The above approaches were applied to selected food-borne genotoxic carcinogens. The proposed approach is applicable to all substances in food that are DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens and enables the formulation of appropriate semi-quantitative advice to risk managers.

Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romanowska Aleksandra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

2010-12-01

Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

Science.gov (United States)

Tsabadze, Teimuraz

2017-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

Reprint of: The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

2017-08-01

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority amongst health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX ® . Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such

[New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

Science.gov (United States)

Augustin, Jean-Christophe

2015-01-01

The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

1987-01-01

Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

A risk assessment approach to identifying constituents in oilfield produced water for treatment prior to beneficial use.

Science.gov (United States)

Horner, Jennifer E; Castle, James W; Rodgers, John H

2011-05-01

A risk assessment approach incorporating exposure pathways and calculated risk quotients was applied to identifying constituents requiring treatment prior to beneficial use of oilfield produced water (OPW). In this study, risk quotients are ratios of constituent concentrations in soil or water to guideline concentrations for no adverse effects to receptors. The risk assessment approach is illustrated by an example of an oilfield water produced from non-marine geologic strata of a rift basin in sub-Saharan Africa. The OPW studied has the following characteristics: 704-1370 mg L(-1) total dissolved solids (TDS), 45-48 mg L(-1) chloride, and 103.8 mg L(-1) oil and grease. Exposure pathways of constituents in OPW used for irrigation include: ingestion of plant tissue, ingestion and direct contact of irrigated soil by livestock, inhalation of aerosols or volatilized constituents, and ingestion of OPW directly by livestock. Applying risk quotient methods for constituents in soil and water, constituents of concern (COCs) identified for irrigation and livestock watering using the OPW studied include: iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), and oil and grease. Approximately 165,000 barrels d(-1) (26,233 m(3) d(-1)) of OPW from the study site are available for use. Identification of COCs and consideration of water quantity allows for development of reliable treatment design criteria to ensure effective and consistent treatment is achieved to meet guideline levels required for irrigation, livestock watering, or other uses. This study illustrates the utility of risk assessment for identifying the COCs in OPW for treatment, the level of treatment required, and viable options for use of the treated water. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

2018-06-01

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

2018-06-13

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution Company (NESS), Daejeon Business Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint.

Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae

2017-01-01

The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint

Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leuschner, R. G. K.; Robinson, T. P.; Hugas, M.

2010-01-01

Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to notified biological agents aiming at simplifying risk assessments across different scientific Panels and Units. The aim of this review is to outline the implementation...... and value of the QPS assessment for EFSA and to explain its principles such as the unambiguous identity of a taxonomic unit, the body of knowledge including potential safety concerns and how these considerations lead to a list of biological agents recommended for QPS which EFSA keeps updated through...

Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

2017-01-01

) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Environmental health risk assessment of ambient lead levels in Lisbon, Portugal: A full chain study approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Casimiro, E.; Philippe Ciffroy, P.; Serpa, P.

2011-01-01

to calculate the Pb levels in the various body systems. Our results showed a low health risk from Pb exposures. It also identified that ingestion of leafy vegetables (i.e. lettuce, cabbage, and spinach) and fruits contribute the most to total Pb blood levels. This full chain assessment approach of the 2FUN...

Uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A statistician's view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, E.P.

1995-01-01

Uncertainty is a topic that has different meanings to researchers, modelers, managers and policy makers. The perspective of this presentation will be on the modeling view of uncertainty and its quantitative assessment. The goal is to provide some insight into how a statistician visualizes and addresses the issue of uncertainty in ecological risk assessment problems. In ecological risk assessment, uncertainty arises from many sources and is of different type depending on what is studies, where it is studied and how it is studied. Some major sources and their impact are described. A variety of quantitative approaches to modeling uncertainty are characterized and a general taxonomy given. Examples of risk assessments of lake acidification, power plant impact assessment and the setting of standards for chemicals will be used discuss approaches to quantitative assessment of uncertainty and some of the potential difficulties

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Risk assessment of transitional economies by multivariate and multicriteria approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomić-Plazibat Neli

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment. Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.

A probabilistic risk assessment approach used to prioritize chemical constituents in mainstream smoke of cigarettes sold in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Jianping; Marano, Kristin M; Wilson, Cody L; Liu, Huimin; Gan, Huamin; Xie, Fuwei; Naufal, Ziad S

2012-03-01

The chemical and physical complexity of cigarette mainstream smoke (MSS) presents a challenge in the understanding of risk for smoking-related diseases. Quantitative risk assessment is a useful tool for assessing the toxicological risks that may be presented by smoking currently available commercial cigarettes. In this study, yields of a selected group of chemical constituents were quantified in machine-generated MSS from 30 brands of cigarettes sold in China. Using constituent yields, exposure estimates specific to and representative of the Chinese population, and available dose-response data, a Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate probability distributions for incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), hazard quotient (HQ), and margin of exposure (MOE) values for each constituent as appropriate. Measures of central tendency were extracted from the outcome distributions and constituents were ranked according to these three risk assessment indices. The constituents for which ILCR >10(-4), HQ >1, and MOE risk contributed by each MSS constituent, this approach provides a plausible and objective framework for the prioritization of toxicants in cigarette smoke and is valuable in guiding tobacco risk management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND PRACTICES IN IT PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BRANDAS Claudiu

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

2012-09-15

Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ellman, Rachel

2009-01-01

Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Meeting the challenges in the development of risk-benefit assessment of foods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Rikke; Pilegaard, Kirsten

2018-01-01

challenges are identified and discussed. They include the variety of different definitions and terminologies used in the underlying research disciplines, the differences between the “bottom-up” and the “top-down” approaches and the need for clear risk-benefit questions. The frequent lack of data......Background Risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods aims to assess the combined negative and positive health effects associated with food intake. RBAs integrate chemical and microbiological risk assessment with risk and benefit assessment in nutrition. Scope and Approach Based on the past experiences...... interdisciplinary consensus, reconsideration of methodological approaches and health metrics based on a categorisation of risk-benefit questions, and the performance of case studies to experience the feasibility of the proposed approaches....

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

2010-01-01

Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

An approach to societal risk acceptance criteria and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.; Whipple, C.

1977-06-01

A quantitative approach to risk acceptance criteria and risk management is proposed for activities involving risk to individuals not receiving direct benefits, such as employment, from the activity. Societal activities are divided into major facilities or technologies, all or part of which are categorized as essential, beneficial, or peripheral, and a decreasing level of acceptable risk to the most exposed individual is proposed (say, 0.0002/year for essential, 0.00001/year for beneficial, and 0.000002/year for peripheral activity). The risk would be assessed at a high confidence level (say, 90%), thereby providing an incentive to the gaining of better knowledge. Each risk-producing facility, technology, etc., would have to undergo assessment both of risk to the individual and to society. The cost of the latter would have to be internalized, probably via a tax paid to the Federal Government, which in turn would redistribute the benefit as national health insurance or reduced taxes to the individual. Risk aversion to large events would be built into the internalization of the cost of risk

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Biosafety risk assessment approaches for insect-resistant genetically modified crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inaam Ullah

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Environmental risk assessment (ERA is imperative for commercial release of insect resistant, genetically modified crops (IR-GMCs.An insect specific, spider venom peptideω-HXTX-Hv1a (Hvt was successfully expressed in cotton plants. The cotton plants producing Hvt protein have demonstrated resistance against economically important insect pest species. The study was performed to assess the effects of Hvt producing cotton plants on Honey bees (Apis mellifera. Methods: Three approaches were used to evaluate the effects of Hvt protein on adults of honeybees; whole plant assays in flight cages, in vitro assays with pollen of Hvt-cotton, and assays with elevated levels of purified Hvt protein. Pollens of Bt cotton or purified Bt proteins were used as control. Results: The field experiments did not yield any meaningful data due to high rate of mortality in all treatments including the control. However, the laboratory experiments provided conclusive results in which Hvt, purified or in pollens, did not affect the survival or longevity of the bees compared to the control. During the course of study we were able to compare the quality, effectiveness and economics of different experiments. Conclusions: We conclude that Hvt either purified or produced in cotton plants do not affect the survival or longevity of honey bees. We are also of the view that starting at laboratory level assays not only gives meaningful data but also saves a lot of time and money that can be spent on other important questions regarding safety of a particular transgenic crop. Hence, a purpose-based, tiered approach could be the best choice for pre-release ERA of IR-GMCs.

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

The Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to the Definition of Audit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berezhniy Yevgeniy B.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The risk category is one of the key factors in planning the audit and assessing its results. The article is aimed at generalizing the theoretical and empirical approaches to the definition of audit risk and methods of its reduction. The structure of audit risk was analyzed and it has been determined, that each of researchers approached to structuring of audit risk from the subjective point of view. The author’s own model of audit risk has been proposed. The basic methods of assessment of audit risk are generalized, the theoretical and empirical approaches to its definition are allocated, also it is noted, that application of any of the given models can be suitable rather for approximate estimation, than for exact calculation of an audit risk, as it is accompanied by certain shortcomings.

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

Application of probabilistic risk based optimization approaches in environmental restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldammer, W.

1995-01-01

The paper presents a general approach to site-specific risk assessments and optimization procedures. In order to account for uncertainties in the assessment of the current situation and future developments, optimization parameters are treated as probabilistic distributions. The assessments are performed within the framework of a cost-benefit analysis. Radiation hazards and conventional risks are treated within an integrated approach. Special consideration is given to consequences of low probability events such as, earthquakes or major floods. Risks and financial costs are combined to an overall figure of detriment allowing one to distinguish between benefits of available reclamation options. The probabilistic analysis uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The paper demonstrates the applicability of this approach in aiding the reclamation planning using an example from the German reclamation program for uranium mining and milling sites

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

2015-01-01

action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

2006-01-01

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

2015-01-01

We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Health and Safety Approach JSA (Job Safety Analysis) in Plantation Company

Science.gov (United States)

Sugarindra, Muchamad; Ragil Suryoputro, Muhammad; Tiya Novitasari, Adi

2017-06-01

Plantation company needed to identify hazard and perform risk assessment as an Identification of Hazard and Risk Assessment Crime and Safety which was approached by using JSA (Job Safety Analysis). The identification was aimed to identify the potential hazards that might be the risk of workplace accidents so that preventive action could be taken to minimize the accidents. The data was collected by direct observation to the workers concerned and the results were recorded on a Job Safety Analysis form. The data were as forklift operator, macerator worker, worker’s creeper, shredder worker, workers’ workshop, mechanical line worker, trolley cleaning workers and workers’ crepe decline. The result showed that shredder worker value was 30 and had the working level with extreme risk with the risk value range was above 20. So to minimize the accidents could provide Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) which were appropriate, information about health and safety, the company should have watched the activities of workers, and rewards for the workers who obey the rules that applied in the plantation.

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

. and industrial activities that may pose threats to ecosystems, flora, fauna and humans. This model-concept gives a three-phase assessment where the assessor tries to determine whether a specific place may be subject to assessment, to characterize the level of risk and to confirm or refute the findings of the first phase, collecting information and corrective measures, or to establish basic requirements for environment protection. Risk assessment methodology - American concept: The third methodological approach to environmental risk assessment is developed by the U.S. Agency for Environmental Protection, 'U.S. EPA'. This model primarily involves the implementation of environmental risk assessment under the conditions of anthropogenic impact on environment, without aiming at solving problems of natural environmental risks, although this methodology can be applied in this environment segment as well. The methodology gives a clear distinction between a scientific (phase of estimation and a non-scientific (planning part of assessment. The phases of estimation given by this model are: problem formulation, risk analysis and risk characterization. Conclusion: Concepts and methodologies of all three models-concepts of assessment are mostly reduced to a common goal: how to reduce existing or avoid potential risks. However, it should be noted that the implementation of appropriate management and ecological risk assessment does not guarantee that risks will be avoided or that the implementation of these processes will be successful.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

2009-01-01

The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, John H.; Medley, Terry L.

1992-01-01

This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions

Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Payne, John H; Medley, Terry L [Biotechnology, Biologics and Environmental Protection Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hyattsville, MD (United States)

1992-07-01

This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions.

THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. S. Oladko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

OpenAIRE

Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

2015-01-01

BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cipovová Eva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

2017-10-01

Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Topuz, E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and

An Integrated Simulation, Inference and Optimization Approach for Groundwater Remediation with Two-stage Health-Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aili Yang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, an integrated simulation, inference and optimization approach with two-stage health risk assessment (i.e., ISIO-THRA is developed for supporting groundwater remediation for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Both environmental standards and health risk are considered as the constraints in the ISIO-THRA model. The health risk includes two parts: (1 the health risk during the remediation process and (2 the health risk in the natural attenuation period after remediation. In the ISIO-THRA framework, the relationship between contaminant concentrations and time is expressed through first-order decay models. The results demonstrate that: (1 stricter environmental standards and health risk would require larger pumping rates for the same remediation duration; (2 higher health risk may happen in the period of the remediation process; (3 for the same environmental standard and acceptable health-risk level, the remediation techniques that take the shortest time would be chosen. ISIO-THRA can help to systematically analyze interaction among contaminant transport, remediation duration, and environmental and health concerns, and further provide useful supportive information for decision makers.

Need to use probabilistic risk approach in performance assessment of waste disposal facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Gallegos, D.P.

1991-01-01

Regulations governing the disposal of radioactive, hazardous, and/or mixed wastes will likely require, either directly or indirectly, that the performance of disposal facilities be assessed quantitatively. Such analyses, commonly called ''performance assessments,'' rely on the use of predictive models to arrive at a quantitative estimate of the potential impact of disposal on the environment and the safety and health of the public. It has been recognized that a suite of uncertainties affect the results of a performance assessment. These uncertainties are conventionally categorized as (1) uncertainty in the future state of the disposal system (facility and surrounding medium), (2) uncertainty in models (including conceptual models, mathematical models, and computer codes), and (3) uncertainty in data and parameters. Decisions regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility must be made in light of these uncertainties. Hence, an approach is needed that would allow the explicit consideration of these uncertainties so that their impact on the estimated consequences of disposal can be evaluated. While most regulations for waste disposal do not prescribe the consideration of uncertainties, it is proposed that, even in such cases, a meaningful decision regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility cannot be made without considering the impact of the attendant uncertainties. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach provides the formalism for considering the uncertainties and the technical basis that the decision makers can use in discharging their duties. A PRA methodology developed and demonstrated for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste provides a general framework for assessing the disposal of all types of wastes (radioactive, hazardous, and mixed). 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leszek Smolarek

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.

1981-01-01

This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

1992-10-01

Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

2007-03-15

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

2007-01-01

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

A multidisciplinary approach to therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grant CL

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cynthia L Grant,1,2 Jaimie L Lusk3 1Arapahoe/Douglas Mental Health Network, Englewood, CO, 2School of Education and Human Development, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, 3Mental Health Service, VA Portland Health Care System, Portland, OR, USA Abstract: As health care trends toward a system of care approach, providers from various disciplines strive to collaborate to provide optimal care for their patients. While a multidisciplinary approach to suicide risk assessment and management has been identified as important for reducing suicidality, standardized clinical guidelines for such an approach do not yet exist. In this article, the authors propose the adoption of the therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient (TRMSP to improve suicide risk assessment and management within multidisciplinary systems of care. The TRMSP, which has been fully articulated in previous articles, involves augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. Augmenting clinical risk assessments with reliable and valid structured instruments serves several functions, including ensuring important aspects of suicide are addressed, establishing a baseline for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, facilitating interprofessional communication, and mitigating risk. Similarly, a two-dimensional risk stratification qualifying suicide risk in terms of both severity and temporality can enhance communication across providers and settings and improve understanding of acute crises in the context of chronic risk. Finally, safety planning interventions allow providers and patients to collaboratively create a personally meaningful plan for managing a suicidal crisis that can be continually modified across time with multiple providers in different care settings. In a busy care environment, the TRMSP can provide concrete guidance on conducting clinically and

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

2011-10-15

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

2017-04-01

Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Caribbean

OpenAIRE

Arias Carballo, Diego; Laura, dos Reis

2013-01-01

A rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment, recently developed by the World Bank, constitutes a useful tool for a system-wide approach to identify risks, risk exposure, the severity of potential loses, and options for risk management either by supply chain participants (individually or collectively) or by third parties (government). Supply chain risk management is the systematic pro...

A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luty Adrian JF

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Xue, J.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distribution functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Jianping Xue

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distributions functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates. 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

A probabilistic approach to Radiological Environmental Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, Rodolfo; Larsson, Carl-Magnus

2001-01-01

Since a radiological environmental impact assessment typically relies on limited data and poorly based extrapolation methods, point estimations, as implied by a deterministic approach, do not suffice. To be of practical use for risk management, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty margins of the estimates as well. In this paper we discuss how to work out a probabilistic approach for dealing with uncertainties in assessments of the radiological risks to non-human biota of a radioactive contamination. Possible strategies for deriving the relevant probability distribution functions from available empirical data and theoretical knowledge are outlined

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat

2011-01-01

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

Community risk assessment of rainfall variability under rain-fed ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, a nuanced understanding of the perspectives of climate related risks among local populations affected is often lacking and or seldom explored in vulnerability assessments due to the dominance of top-down approaches. This paper explores the potential of Community Risk Assessment (CRA) and local knowledge ...

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitschke, R.L.

1997-01-01

In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

2010-09-15

This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

2011-01-01

For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

1992-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fragola, J.R.

1984-01-01

This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

. The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

2017-10-01

Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

2017-10-19

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolt Jeffrey D

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGregor, James T; Frötschl, Roland; White, Paul A; Crump, Kenny S; Eastmond, David A; Fukushima, Shoji; Guérard, Melanie; Hayashi, Makoto; Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Johnson, George E; Kasamatsu, Toshio; Levy, Dan D; Morita, Takeshi; Müller, Lutz; Schoeny, Rita; Schuler, Maik J; Thybaud, Véronique

2015-05-01

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose-response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clastogenic damage for agents thought to act via a genotoxic mechanism, but that the correlation is limited due to an inadequate number of cases in which mutation and cancer can be compared at a sufficient number of doses in the same target tissues of the same species and strain exposed under directly comparable routes and experimental protocols. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

2017-09-05

Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

OpenAIRE

Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

1987-01-01

A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approa...

Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological, and biogeochemical fundamentals of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashkin, V.N.; Kozlov, M.Ya.; Evstafjeva, E.V.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment (RA) influenced by different factors in radionuclide polluted regions is carried out by determining the biogeochemical structure of a region. Consequently, ecological-biogeochemical regionalization, ecotoxicological and ecophysiological monitoring of human population health are the important approach to RA. These criteria should conjugate with LCA of various industrial and agricultural products. Given fundamentals and approaches are needed for areas where traditional pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, fertilizers, POPs etc) are enforced sharply by radioactive pollution. For RA of these complex pollutants, the methods of human adaptability to a polluted environment have been carried out. These techniques include biogeochemical, ecotoxicological, and ecophysiological analyses of risk factors as well as quantitative analysis of uncertainties using expert-modeling systems. Furthermore, the modern statistical methods are used for quantitative assessment of human adaptability to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. The results obtained in Chernobyl regions show the acceptability of these methods for risk assessment

Men Who Abuse Their Spouses: An Approach to Assessing Future Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldsmith, Herbert R.

1990-01-01

Studied risk assessment for abuse cases by examining cases (N=20) referred to local spouse treatment center. Focused on woman's perception of mate's personality/behavioral characteristics and relationship plus other situational factors. Confirmed majority of risk factors associated with spouse abuse as reported in the literature. Presents pilot…

Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Approaches to acceptable risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whipple, C.

1997-01-01

Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

Risk assessment for heart disease and workplace ETS exposure among nonsmokers.

OpenAIRE

Steenland, K

1999-01-01

In 1994 the U.S. Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) published a study of risk assessment for heart disease and lung cancer resulting from workplace exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) among nonsmokers. This assessment is currently being revised. The present article considers different possible approaches to a risk assessment for heart disease among nonsmokers resulting from workplace ETS exposure, reviews the approach taken by OSHA in 1994, and suggests some modifi...

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Risk Assessment Considerations for Veterinary Medicines in Aquatic Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

This chapter provides a critical evaluation of prospective and retrospective risk assessment approaches for veterinary medicines in aquatic ecosystems and provides recommendations for possible alternative approaches for hazard characterization.

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

2016-01-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

Value focused thinking : An approach to structure company values for asset risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Lei, T.E.; Ligtvoet, A.

2012-01-01

For public and semi public organizations the use of risk assessment matrices is becoming a standard approach for asset management decisions. The risk matrix allows companies to assess the chance and effects of different risks with respect to proposed investment decisions. When the values in the risk

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

2011-01-01

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

Science.gov (United States)

Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

2016-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical