WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment approach

  1. An approach to risk assessment

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  2. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  3. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  4. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  5. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  7. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  10. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  11. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  12. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  13. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  14. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  15. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  16. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  17. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  18. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Leyla V. Kaufman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  19. Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

    Woods, P

    2013-11-01

    This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  2. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  3. An Approach to On-line Risk Assessment in NPP

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; O'Brien, J.

    1996-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can provide safety status information for a plant during different configurations; additional effort is needed to do this in real time for on-line operation. This paper describes an approach to use PRA to achieve these goals. A Risk Assessment On-Line (RAOL) application was developed to monitor maintenance (on-line and planned) activities. RAOL is based on the results from a full-scope PRA, engineering/operational judgment and incorporates a user friendly program interface approach. Results from RAOL can be used by planners or operations to effectively manage the level of risk by controlling the actual plant configuration. (author)

  4. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  5. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-01

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: ► A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. ► An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. ► The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  6. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  8. Validity of various epidemiological approaches to assessing radon health risk

    Conrath, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper various epidemiologic study designs are defined and evaluated for their utility in assessing radon health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are addressed. Common pitfalls and errors of epidemiologic method are delineated with examples of causes and remedies

  9. Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

    Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

    2015-10-01

    Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. An approach to grouping species for ecological risk assessment

    Hampton, N.L.; VanHorn, R.L.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.

    1994-01-01

    The ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm acknowledges all levels of ecological organization as having potential for defining assessment and measurement endpoints. However, assessment goals and endpoints are generally concentrated at individual species and population levels. As part of a sitewide, screening-level ERA process at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a ''functional group'' approach was developed to incorporate assessment at a higher level of ecological organization into the risk analysis process. Functional groups demonstrating biological similarity and similar potential for contaminant exposure were developed using taxonomic, trophic and habitat parameters. As defined, all species are potential surrogates for the other members of the same functional group. Measurement endpoint data for several species may be integrated to address the risk to the group as a whole. The functional group concept was applied throughout the problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization phases of the assessment process. This approach allows the ERA to be focused on risk to the integrity of individual functional groups, which can subsequently be related to guild and community integrity

  11. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    deciding upon the granting of permits for landfill sites or the discharge of toxic chemicals to water or air and in doing so they must take into account the hydrology, geology and climate of the specific locality. While the basic approach to chemical risk assessment will be the same, irrespective of the specific objective for which the assessment is carried out, the details will vary as a function of: the product type (pharmaceutical, pesticide, industrial chemical, etc.), the target population of interest (patient, environment, consumer, worker, etc.) and the exposure scenario (global, international, national, local)

  12. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    deciding upon the granting of permits for landfill sites or the discharge of toxic chemicals to water or air and in doing so they must take into account the hydrology, geology and climate of the specific locality. While the basic approach to chemical risk assessment will be the same, irrespective of the specific objective for which the assessment is carried out, the details will vary as a function of: the product type (pharmaceutical, pesticide, industrial chemical, etc.), the target population of interest (patient, environment, consumer, worker, etc.) and the exposure scenario (global, international, national, local)

  13. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  14. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

  15. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    1993-01-01

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  18. [DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

    Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

  19. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  20. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: The Australian approach

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss cur-rent and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and, environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from are think in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications

  1. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: the Australian approach

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss current and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from a rethink in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  2. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

    2017-01-01

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in H...

  3. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  4. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L.

    1998-01-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  5. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    -economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

  6. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  7. A resilience engineering approach to assess major accident risks

    Hollnagel, E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12.......This chapter describes how the principles of Resilience Engineering can be used to make a risk assessment of an Integrated Operations (IO) scenario. It refers to the case study provided in Chapter 12....

  8. An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment.

    Vilhena, João; Rosário Martins, M; Vicente, Henrique; Grañeda, José M; Caldeira, Filomena; Gusmão, Rodrigo; Neves, João; Neves, José

    2017-03-01

    The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

  9. A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

    Ellman, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

  10. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  11. A big data analysis approach for rail failure risk assessment

    Jamshidi, A.; Faghih Roohi, S.; Hajizadeh, S.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Babuska, R.; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2017-01-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by

  12. Risk assessment of transitional economies by multivariate and multicriteria approaches

    Tomić-Plazibat Neli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses country-risk of sixteen Central, Baltic and South-East European transition countries, for 2005 and 2007, using multivariate cluster analysis. It was aided by the appropriate ANOVA (analysis of variance testing and the multicriteria PROMETHEE method. The combination of methods makes for more accurate and efficient country-risk assessment. Country risk classifications and ratings involve evaluating the performance of countries while considering their economic and socio-political characteristics. The purpose of the article is to classify, and then find the comparative position of each individual country in the group of analyzed countries, in order to find out to which extent development of market economy and democratic society has been achieved.

  13. Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

    Campbell, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

  14. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  15. An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

    Thomas, Barry

    1992-01-01

    The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies

  16. An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

    Thomas, Barry [Schering Agrochemicals Ltd., Chesterford Park Research Station, Saffron Walder, Essex (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies.

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

  18. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-01-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  19. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    Voelker, Doris, E-mail: doris.voelker@uba.de [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.2, Wörlitzer Platz 1, 06844 Dessau-Rosslau (Germany); Schlich, Karsten [Fraunhofer Institute for Molecular Biology and Applied Ecology, Department of Ecotoxicology, Auf dem Aberg 1, 57392 Schmallenberg (Germany); Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.2, Wörlitzer Platz 1, 06844 Dessau-Rosslau (Germany); Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.4, Schichauweg 58, 12307 Berlin (Germany); Hund-Rinke, Kerstin [Fraunhofer Institute for Molecular Biology and Applied Ecology, Department of Ecotoxicology, Auf dem Aberg 1, 57392 Schmallenberg (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  20. Use of traits-based bioassessment approaches in biomonitoring and ecological risk assessment

    Brink, van den P.J.; Alexander, A.; Desrosiers, M.; Goedkoop, W.; Goethals, P.L.M.; Liess, M.; Dyer, S.

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the application of traits-based bioassessment approaches in retrospective bioassessment as well as in prospective ecological risk assessments in regulatory frameworks. Both approaches address the interaction between species and stressors and their consequences at different levels of

  1. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

  2. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  3. Comparative risk assessment: an element for a more rational and ethical approach to radiation risk

    Danesi, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    Peaceful nuclear technologies are still perceived by a large fraction of the general public, the media as well as by some decision makers, as more risky than many other 'conventional' technologies. One of the approaches that can help bringing more rationality and ethics into the picture is to present the risk associated with radiation and nuclear technologies in the frame of correctly conducted comparative risk assessments. However, comparing different risks is not so straightforward because quantifying different risks on a comparable scale requires overcoming both conceptual and practical difficulties. Risk (R) can be expressed as the product of the probability (P) that a given undesired event, the risk, will occur, times the consequences of this event (C), i.e. R = P x C. Although in principle risks could be compared by simply ranking them according to the different values of R, this simplistic approach is not always possible because to correctly compare risks all factors, circumstances and assumptions should be mutually equivalent and quantified and the (often large) uncertainties taken into proper account. In the case of radiation risk, ICRP has assumed as valid the LNT model, (probability coefficient of 5 % per Sievert for attributable death from cancer) and selected the present equivalent dose limit of 1 mSv per year for public exposure. This dose corresponds to 50 lethal cancers by 1 million people exposed and is approximately equivalent (in terms of probability of death) to the risk of bicycling for 600 km, driving for 3200 km, crossing a busy road twice a day for 1 year, smoking 2.5 packets of cigarettes or being X-rayed once for kidney metabolism. However, according to many scientists on the basis of both epidemiological and biological results and considerations, the actual risk is far lower than that predicted by the LNT model. Nevertheless, the policies and myths that were created about half a century ago are still persisting and have lead the general

  4. Proteomic approaches in cancer risk and response assessment.

    Petricoin, Emanuel F; Liotta, Lance A

    2004-02-01

    Proteomics is more than just a list-generating exercise where increases or decreases in protein expression are identified. Proteomic technologies will ultimately characterize information-flow through the protein circuitry that interconnects the extracellular microenvironment to the serum or plasma macroenvironment through intracellular signaling systems and their control of gene transcription. The nature of this information can be a cause or a consequence of disease processes and how patients respond to therapy. Analysis of human cancer as a model for how proteomics can have an impact at the bedside can take advantage of several promising new proteomic technologies. These technologies are being developed for early detection and risk assessment, therapeutic targeting and patient-tailored therapy.

  5. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  6. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

    Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-12-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L -1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence - as cell numbers or biomass - rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  7. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  8. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

  9. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  10. Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

    Đapić Mirko

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.

  11. Computer aided approach for qualitative risk assessment of engineered systems

    Crowley, W.K.; Arendt, J.S.; Fussell, J.B.; Rooney, J.J.; Wagner, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    This paper outlines a computer aided methodology for determining the relative contributions of various subsystems and components to the total risk associated with an engineered system. Major contributors to overall task risk are identified through comparison of an expected frequency density function with an established risk criterion. Contributions that are inconsistently high are also identified. The results from this analysis are useful for directing efforts for improving system safety and performance. An analysis of uranium hexafluoride handling risk at a gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant using a preliminary version of the computer program EXCON is briefly described and illustrated

  12. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  13. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

  14. A counterfactual p-value approach for benefit-risk assessment in clinical trials.

    Zeng, Donglin; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Wei, Rachel; Ding, Beiying; Ke, Chunlei; Jiang, Qi

    2015-01-01

    Clinical trials generally allow various efficacy and safety outcomes to be collected for health interventions. Benefit-risk assessment is an important issue when evaluating a new drug. Currently, there is a lack of standardized and validated benefit-risk assessment approaches in drug development due to various challenges. To quantify benefits and risks, we propose a counterfactual p-value (CP) approach. Our approach considers a spectrum of weights for weighting benefit-risk values and computes the extreme probabilities of observing the weighted benefit-risk value in one treatment group as if patients were treated in the other treatment group. The proposed approach is applicable to single benefit and single risk outcome as well as multiple benefit and risk outcomes assessment. In addition, the prior information in the weight schemes relevant to the importance of outcomes can be incorporated in the approach. The proposed CPs plot is intuitive with a visualized weight pattern. The average area under CP and preferred probability over time are used for overall treatment comparison and a bootstrap approach is applied for statistical inference. We assess the proposed approach using simulated data with multiple efficacy and safety endpoints and compare its performance with a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis approach.

  15. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  16. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  17. Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

  18. Dose related risk and effect assessment model (DREAM) -- A more realistic approach to risk assessment of offshore discharges

    Johnsen, S.; Furuholt, E.

    1995-01-01

    Risk assessment of discharges from offshore oil and gas production to the marine environment features determination of potential environmental concentration (PEC) levels and no observed effect concentration (NOEC) levels. The PEC values are normally based on dilution of chemical components in the actual discharge source in the recipient, while the NOEC values are determined by applying a safety factor to acute toxic effects from laboratory tests. The DREAM concept focuses on realistic exposure doses as function of contact time and dilution, rather than fixed exposure concentrations of chemicals in long time exposure regimes. In its present state, the DREAM model is based on a number of assumptions with respect to the link between real life exposure doses and effects observed in laboratory tests. A research project has recently been initiated to develop the concept further, with special focus on chronic effects of different chemical compounds on the marine ecosystem. One of the questions that will be addressed is the link between exposure time, dose, concentration and effect. Validation of the safety factors applied for transforming acute toxic data into NOEC values will also be included. The DREAM model has been used by Statoil for risk assessment of discharges from new and existing offshore oil and gas production fields, and has been found to give a much more realistic results than conventional risk assessment tools. The presentation outlines the background for the DREAM approach, describes the model in its present state, discusses further developments and applications, and shows a number of examples on the performance of DREAM

  19. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  20. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  1. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  2. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  3. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    2012-05-17

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2012-0110] An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft regulatory guide; request for comment. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory...

  4. An approach for risk informed safety culture assessment for Canadian nuclear power stations

    Nelson, W.R.

    2010-01-01

    One of the most important components of effective safety and risk management for nuclear power stations is a healthy safety culture. DNV has developed an approach for risk informed safety culture assessment that combines two complementary paradigms for safety and risk management: loss prevention - for preventing and intervening in accidents; and critical function management - for achieving safety and performance goals. Combining these two paradigms makes it possible to provide more robust systems for safety management and to support a healthy safety culture. This approach is being applied to safety culture assessment in partnership with a Canadian nuclear utility. (author)

  5. An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

  6. Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

    Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

    1995-03-01

    Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

  7. Holistic risk assessment and risk prevention approach to the mechanized NDT and the inspection procedure

    Bertovic, Marija; Mueller, Christina; Fahlbruch, Babette; Ronneteg, Ulf; Pitkaenen, Jorma

    2013-01-01

    The difficulty to deal with human factors in non-destructive testing (NDT) stems from their diversity and complexity - no single human or organizational factor is responsible for the entire fluctuations in the NDT performance. The typical approach to decrease the variability in the inspection results had been found in replacing manual NDT with mechanized methods. However, even though some human errors can be avoided by automating the process, there are new risks that can arise from its application and need to be further investigated. To address this problem, a combination of theoretical and practical approaches should be applied, where the source of error is not seen only in the inspector, but also in his interaction with social and technical systems, as well as the organization. An analysis of potential risks in the use of mechanized inspections methods for spent fuel canisters has shown potential for human error in acquisition, as well as in the evaluation of the gathered results. Assessed causes of those errors lay in the inspector, but also in the organization and in shortcomings of the inspection procedure. The aim of the analysis was to provide with preventive measures and optimization recommendations. Those include further automation of the process, application of human redundancy, improvements of the inspection procedure, hardware and software improvements etc. Before improvements can be made, there is a need to understand the resulting processes and the influence of their interaction on the inspection results. The results have shown that when working with an automated system, one must avoid over relying on its proper functioning and form appropriate trust towards automation. Furthermore, human redundancy should be applied only in cases where the redundant inspectors are completely unaware of each other, in order to avoid the effects of social loafing and shirking. The inspection procedure is one of the most important tools in the application of NDT. On an

  8. Holistic risk assessment and risk prevention approach to the mechanized NDT and the inspection procedure

    Bertovic, Marija; Mueller, Christina [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin (Germany); Fahlbruch, Babette [TUEV NORD Systems GmbH und Co. KG, Berlin (Germany); Ronneteg, Ulf [SKB Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Oskarshamn (Sweden); Pitkaenen, Jorma [Posiva Oy, Eurajoki (Finland)

    2013-07-01

    The difficulty to deal with human factors in non-destructive testing (NDT) stems from their diversity and complexity - no single human or organizational factor is responsible for the entire fluctuations in the NDT performance. The typical approach to decrease the variability in the inspection results had been found in replacing manual NDT with mechanized methods. However, even though some human errors can be avoided by automating the process, there are new risks that can arise from its application and need to be further investigated. To address this problem, a combination of theoretical and practical approaches should be applied, where the source of error is not seen only in the inspector, but also in his interaction with social and technical systems, as well as the organization. An analysis of potential risks in the use of mechanized inspections methods for spent fuel canisters has shown potential for human error in acquisition, as well as in the evaluation of the gathered results. Assessed causes of those errors lay in the inspector, but also in the organization and in shortcomings of the inspection procedure. The aim of the analysis was to provide with preventive measures and optimization recommendations. Those include further automation of the process, application of human redundancy, improvements of the inspection procedure, hardware and software improvements etc. Before improvements can be made, there is a need to understand the resulting processes and the influence of their interaction on the inspection results. The results have shown that when working with an automated system, one must avoid over relying on its proper functioning and form appropriate trust towards automation. Furthermore, human redundancy should be applied only in cases where the redundant inspectors are completely unaware of each other, in order to avoid the effects of social loafing and shirking. The inspection procedure is one of the most important tools in the application of NDT. On an

  9. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  10. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  11. Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

    Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

    2018-02-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  13. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  14. Risk Assessment

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  15. A 3S Risk ?3SR? Assessment Approach for Nuclear Power: Safety Security and Safeguards.

    Forrest, Robert; Reinhardt, Jason Christian; Wheeler, Timothy A.; Williams, Adam David

    2017-11-01

    Safety-focused risk analysis and assessment approaches struggle to adequately include malicious, deliberate acts against the nuclear power industry's fissile and waste material, infrastructure, and facilities. Further, existing methods do not adequately address non- proliferation issues. Treating safety, security, and safeguards concerns independently is inefficient because, at best, it may not take explicit advantage of measures that provide benefits against multiple risk domains, and, at worst, it may lead to implementations that increase overall risk due to incompatibilities. What is needed is an integrated safety, security and safeguards risk (or "3SR") framework for describing and assessing nuclear power risks that can enable direct trade-offs and interactions in order to inform risk management processes -- a potential paradigm shift in risk analysis and management. These proceedings of the Sandia ePRA Workshop (held August 22-23, 2017) are an attempt to begin the discussions and deliberations to extend and augment safety focused risk assessment approaches to include security concerns and begin moving towards a 3S Risk approach. Safeguards concerns were not included in this initial workshop and are left to future efforts. This workshop focused on four themes in order to begin building out a the safety and security portions of the 3S Risk toolkit: 1. Historical Approaches and Tools 2. Current Challenges 3. Modern Approaches 4. Paths Forward and Next Steps This report is organized along the four areas described above, and concludes with a summary of key points. 2 Contact: rforres@sandia.gov; +1 (925) 294-2728

  16. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  17. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  18. A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

    Gobas, Frank A. P. C.; Mayer, Philipp; Parkerton, Thomas F.

    2018-01-01

    activity approach, its strengths and limitations, and provides examples of how this concept may be applied to the management of single chemicals and chemical mixtures. The examples demonstrate that the chemical activity approach provides a useful framework for 1) compiling and evaluating exposure......To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article describes the chemical...... assessment. The article further illustrates that the chemical activity approach can support an adaptive management strategy for environmental stewardship of chemicals where “safe” chemical activities are established based on toxicological studies and presented as guidelines for environmental quality...

  19. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: Report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods"

    Madsen, C.B.; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.; Gendel, S.M.; Houben, G.F.; Hourihane, J.OB.; Mackie, A.; Mills, E.N.C.; Nørhede, P.; Taylor, S.L.; Crevel, R.W.R.

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move

  20. A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

    Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

    1999-01-01

    A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  1. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. PMID:26316770

  2. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

  3. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

    Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2012-01-01

    Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

  4. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

  5. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  6. Non-animal approaches for consumer safety risk assessments: Unilever's scientific research programme.

    Carmichael, Paul; Davies, Michael; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; Fletcher, Samantha; Gilmour, Nicola; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Merolla, Leona; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona; Westmoreland, Carl

    2009-12-01

    Non-animal based approaches to risk assessment are now routinely used for assuring consumer safety for some endpoints (such as skin irritation) following considerable investment in developing and applying new methods over the past 20 years. Unilever's research programme into non-animal approaches for safety assessment is currently focused on the application of new technologies to risk assessments in the areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhalation toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biological and chemical processes that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement with EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, carcinoGENOMICS), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. COLIPA, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US 'Human Toxicology Project' consortium). 2009 FRAME.

  7. A tiered approach for probabilistic ecological risk assessment of contaminated sites

    Zolezzi, M.; Nicolella, C.; Tarazona, J.V.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a tiered methodology for probabilistic ecological risk assessment. The proposed approach starts from deterministic comparison (ratio) of single exposure concentration and threshold or safe level calculated from a dose-response relationship, goes through comparison of probabilistic distributions that describe exposure values and toxicological responses of organisms to the chemical of concern, and finally determines the so called distribution-based quotients (DBQs). In order to illustrate the proposed approach, soil concentrations of 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene (1,2,4- TCB) measured in an industrial contaminated site were used for site-specific probabilistic ecological risks assessment. By using probabilistic distributions, the risk, which exceeds a level of concern for soil organisms with the deterministic approach, is associated to the presence of hot spots reaching concentrations able to affect acutely more than 50% of the soil species, while the large majority of the area presents 1,2,4- TCB concentrations below those reported as toxic [it

  8. A comprehensive approach to benefit-risk assessment in drug development

    Sarac, Sinan B; Rasmussen, Christian H; Rasmussen, Morten A.

    2012-01-01

    Major regulatory agencies, for example, FDA and EMA, have started to request comprehensive benefit-risk analyses of pharmaceutical products prior to approval or labelling expansion. The purpose of this study is to develop a generally applicable and reliable data-driven benefit-risk assessment......) discussion and formulation of an overall conclusion. To reduce the impact of subjective judgements, scores are assigned to each criterion on the basis of objective information (data) wherever possible. The proposed benefit-risk evaluation approach offers comprehensive, data-driven assessments that can...... method, where two or more drugs/doses can be compared. Our aim is to formulate an approach that is simple to apply, allows direct comparison of different types of risks and benefits, and is tailored for application in different disease areas both during clinical development and in the marketing approval...

  9. Environmental health risk assessment of ambient lead levels in Lisbon, Portugal: A full chain study approach

    Casimiro, E.; Philippe Ciffroy, P.; Serpa, P.

    2011-01-01

    to calculate the Pb levels in the various body systems. Our results showed a low health risk from Pb exposures. It also identified that ingestion of leafy vegetables (i.e. lettuce, cabbage, and spinach) and fruits contribute the most to total Pb blood levels. This full chain assessment approach of the 2FUN...

  10. Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    Islam, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

    PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam

    This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of

  11. A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

    Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an

  12. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  13. Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts – adaptation of traditional approaches

    Jahnel, J; Fleischer, T; Seitz, S B

    2013-01-01

    Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.

  14. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

  15. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

    2007-11-15

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  16. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  17. Chemical Exposure Assessment Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory: A risk based approach

    Stephenson, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    The University of California Contract And DOE Order 5480.10 require that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) perform health hazard assessments/inventories of all employee workplaces. In response to this LANL has developed the Chemical Exposure Assessment Program. This program provides a systematic risk-based approach to anticipation, recognition, evaluation and control of chemical workplace exposures. Program implementation focuses resources on exposures with the highest risks for causing adverse health effects. Implementation guidance includes procedures for basic characterization, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative validation, and recommendations and reevaluation. Each component of the program is described. It is shown how a systematic method of assessment improves documentation, retrieval, and use of generated exposure information

  18. Risk Assessment of Wastewater Collection Performance Using the Fuzzy Decision-making Approach

    Maedeh Asgarian

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Wastewater collection network simulation in normal conditions dose not provide performance assessment in unusual circumstances. In this paper, a model has been developed for risk assessment of wastewater collection systems to manage their performance under natural or man-made critical conditions. In this model, certain criteria were defined, fuzzy MADM techniques were exploited, and a questionnaire was employed to measure such risk parameters as the probability of threats, the severity of their impacts, and the vulnerability of the network components. Based on the calculated magnitude of the risks, the threats and hazards were classified into groups ranging from low-risk to high-risk threats. The approaches adopted to combat the risks were also classified into the following three categories: "to deal with the risk", "risk shifting", and "risk taking". This process was implemented for the wastewater collection system in Shahrak-Gharb District in Tehran as a case study. ‘Introduction of chemical pollutants into the sewers’ and ‘drastic changes in wastewater quality’ were identified as the most threatening crises for the district and the ‘risk reduction strategy’ was proposed for combating the critical conditions in this district.

  19. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

    Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

    2011-03-01

    Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

  20. Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

    Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

    2010-03-15

    White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

  1. Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

    Sylvie Briand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

  2. A study on graded approach for risk assessment of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    Shoji, Tatsuro; Kohata, Yuuji; Takebe, Kazumi; Tamauchi, Yoshikazu; Hayashi, Kazuya; Kurosu, Katsuya

    2005-01-01

    In a reprocessing plant, radioactive materials exist in several chemical processes and storage facilities, therefore we should evaluate risks of many events with various types, scenarios, frequencies and consequences in order to assess total risk of the plant. In order to assess risks of many events efficiently and effectively, the 'Graded Approach' should be applied to the assessment method taking account of importance of the consequence, complexity of scenarios and necessitated uncertainty. Therefore, we have developed a simplified quantitative method, so-called the 'improved risk index method', based on the 'risk index method' recommended by US NRC as qualitative risk evaluation method for 'Integrated safety analysis (ISA)' of fuel cycle facilities, to enhance quantitability, consistency and traceability in evaluation. The results of the 'improved risk index method' well agree with the detailed PSA in spite of the simplification. We will use this method in combination with the detailed PSA method, and will use the results for risk-informed management/regulation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)

  3. Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

    Kwag, Shinyoung

    Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

  4. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  5. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

    Fahrni J

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Jennifer Fahrni,1 Marc Husmann,2 Silvia B Gretener,3 Hong H Keo1 1Division of Angiology, Medical University Clinic, Kantonsspital Aarau AG, Aarau, Switzerland; 2Clinic for Angiology, University Hospital, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland; 3Clinic for Angiology Oberaargau, Langenthal, Switzerland Abstract: Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. Keywords: thrombosis, hemorrhage, risk assessment 

  6. Using a risk assessment approach to handle 'hot spot' remediation in an environmentally-sensitive habitat

    BenKinney, M.T.; Guiseppi-Eli, A.; Novick, N.J.; Naro, P.A.

    1993-01-01

    A number of different approaches have been used to address site restoration following an accidental discharge or spill. Removal of all contamination with subsequent site restoration has been a favored approach. The authors' presentation will focus on a case study where a risk assessment approach was used to establish the criteria for is the restoration. Waste oil from a gasoline service station had leaked, over time, into a swale system in an ecologically-sensitive coastal forested habitat. The initial regulatory recommendation was to excavate all soils and restore the area. Their initial investigations revealed that only a limited area was heavily contaminated, predominantly with paraffinic hydrocarbons. They used a risk assessment approach coupled with sediment elutriate testing to demonstrate that leaving the lightly contaminated material in place would not present an environmental hazard from the waste oil, while causing less damage to the swale bed and forested area. Bioassay tests were conducted on sediments collected along the length of the swale from the areas with the highest remaining hydrocarbon concentrations using fathead minnow and Daphnia magna. The bioassay studies confirmed the results of the risk assessment which determined that no environmental toxicity would be expected from allowing lightly contaminated material to remain in-place at this site

  7. Risk assessment

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  8. A Fuzzy-FMEA Risk Assessment Approach for Offshore Wind Turbines

    M. Shafiee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for risk and reliability analysis. However, several limitations are associated with its implementation in offshore windfarms: (i the failure data gathered from SCADA system is often missing or unreliable, and hence, the assessment information of the three risk factors (i.e., severity, occurrence, and fault detection are mainly based onexperts’ knowledge; (ii it is rather difficult for experts to precisely evaluate the risk factors; (iii the relative importance among the risk factors is not taken into consideration, and hence, the results may not necessarily represent the true risk priorities; and etc. To overcome these drawbacks and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, we develop a fuzzy-FMEA approach for risk and failure mode analysis in offshore wind turbine systems. The information obtained from the experts is expressed using fuzzy linguistics terms, and a grey theory analysis is proposed to incorporate the relative importance of the riskfactors into the determination of risk priority of failure modes. The proposed approach is applied to an offshore wind turbine system with sixteen mechanical, electrical and auxiliary assemblies, and the results are compared with the traditional FMEA.

  9. An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

    Caruso, Mark A.; Cheok, Michael C.; Cunningham, Mark A.; Holahan, Gary M.; King, Thomas L.; Parry, Gareth W.; Ramey-Smith, Ann M.; Rubin, Mark P.; Thadani, Ashok C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses an acceptable approach that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has proposed for using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in making decisions on changes to the licensing basis of a nuclear power plant. First, the overall philosophy of risk-informed decision-making, and the process framework are described. The philosophy is encapsulated in five principles, one of which states that, if the proposed change leads to an increase in core damage frequency or risk, the increases must be small and consistent with the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Goal Policy Statement. The second part of the paper discusses the use of PRA to demonstrate that this principle has been met. The discussion focuses on the acceptance guidelines, and on comparison of the PRA results with those guidelines. The difficulties that arise because of limitations in scope and analytical uncertainties are discussed and approaches to accommodate these difficulties in the decision-making are described

  10. Approach to modeling of human performance for purposes of probabilistic risk assessment

    Swain, A.D.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the general approach taken in NUREG/CR-1278 to model human performance in sufficienct detail to permit probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plant operations. To show the basis for the more specific models in the above NUREG, a simplified model of the human component in man-machine systems is presented, the role of performance shaping factors is discussed, and special problems in modeling the cognitive aspect of behavior are described

  11. An approach to incorporate risks into a product's life-cycle assessment

    Pirhonen, P.

    1995-01-01

    Life-cycle assessment is usually based on regular discharges that occur at a more or less constant rate. Nevertheless, the more factors that are taken into account in the LCA the better picture it gives on the environmental aspects of a product. In this study an approach to incorporate accidental releases into a products' life-cycle assessment was developed. In this approach accidental releases are divided into two categories. The first category consists of those unplanned releases which occur with a predicted level and frequency. Due to the high frequency and small release size at a time, these accidental releases can be compared to continuous emissions. Their global impacts are studied in this approach. Accidental releases of the second category are sudden, unplanned releases caused by exceptional situations, e.g. technical failure, action error or disturbances in process conditions. These releases have a singular character and local impacts are typical of them. As far as the accidental releases of the second category are concerned, the approach introduced in this study results in a risk value for every stage of a life-cycle, the sum of which is a risk value for the whole life-cycle. Risk value is based on occurrence frequencies of incidents and potential environmental damage caused by releases. Risk value illustrates the level of potential damage caused by accidental releases related to the system under study and is meant to be used for comparison of these levels of two different products. It can also be used to compare the risk levels of different stages of the life-cycle. An approach was illustrated using petrol as an example product. The whole life-cycle of petrol from crude oil production to the consumption of petrol was studied

  12. Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

    Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

  13. A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

    Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

  14. A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

    Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

    2011-05-01

    Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

    Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2018-03-01

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  16. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    leveraging the statistical characteristics of a visit distribution, as opposed to person-level data. It is computationally efficient and superior to existing risk assessment methods, which rely on ad hoc assessment that are often computationally expensive and unreliable. We evaluate our approach on a range of location access patterns in simulated environments. Our results demonstrate the approach is effective at estimating trail disclosure risks and the amount of self-information contained in a distributed system is one of the main driving factors. PMID:21647242

  17. RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

    Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

    1995-01-01

    The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

  18. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  19. A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

    Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

    2018-05-03

    The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Risk Assessment

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  1. Risk assessment

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  2. Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

    Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2013-11-01

    The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

  3. Xplicit, a novel approach in probabilistic spatiotemporally explicit exposure and risk assessment for plant protection products.

    Schad, Thorsten; Schulz, Ralf

    2011-10-01

    The quantification of risk (the likelihood and extent of adverse effects) is a prerequisite in regulatory decision making for plant protection products and is the goal of the Xplicit project. In its present development stage, realism is increased in the exposure assessment (EA), first by using real-world data on, e.g., landscape factors affecting exposure, and second, by taking the variability of key factors into account. Spatial and temporal variability is explicitly addressed. Scale dependencies are taken into account, which allows for risk quantification at different scales, for example, at landscape scale, an overall picture of the potential exposure of nontarget organisms can be derived (e.g., for all off-crop habitats in a given landscape); at local scale, exposure might be relevant to assess recovery and recolonization potential; intermediate scales might best refer to population level and hence might be relevant for risk management decisions (e.g., individual off-crop habitats). The Xplicit approach is designed to comply with a central paradigm of probabilistic approaches, namely, that each individual case that is derived from the variability functions employed should represent a potential real-world case. This is mainly achieved by operating in a spatiotemporally explicit fashion. Landscape factors affecting the local exposure of habitats of nontarget species (i.e., receptors) are derived from geodatabases. Variability in time is resolved by operating at discrete time steps, with the probability of events (e.g., application) or conditions (e.g., wind conditions) defined in probability density functions (PDFs). The propagation of variability of parameters into variability of exposure and risk is done using a Monte Carlo approach. Among the outcomes are expectancy values on the realistic worst-case exposure (predicted environmental concentration [PEC]), the probability p that the PEC exceeds the ecologically acceptable concentration (EAC) for a given

  4. Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

    Cucinotta, Francis A

    2015-02-01

    Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

  5. Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

    LaBelle, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

  6. The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide.

    Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

    2017-11-01

    Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority among health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above the threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX®. Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such

  7. Reprint of: The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide.

    Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

    2017-08-01

    Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority amongst health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX ® . Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such

  8. Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

    C. Kubal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

  9. Carcinogenic risk assessment and management of ionising radiation, asbestos and nickel: a comparative approach

    Schneider, T.; Lepicard, S.; Oudiz, A.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Gadbois, S.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study is to identify the similarities as well as the differences of risk assessment and management of ionizing radiation, asbestos and nickel in France. The comparison has been performed at three levels of analysis: concepts, regulation and practices. Ionizing radiation (IR) is compared with asbestos as far as occupational exposure is concerned and to nickel and nickel compounds as far as general population exposure is concerned. The three main stages of risk assessment were considered: hazard identification, exposure-risk relationship, exposure assessment. Alternative risk management policies were reviewed. The main results are the following: At the conceptual level, the risk assessment and management frameworks present many similarities: exposure-risk relationships exist, and low dose extrapolation is considered as legitimate. Comparison of protection strategies can be carried out with reference to the 'optimization' principle developed for IR. At the regulatory level, the status of the IR dose limits differs from the status of the exposure limit values set for asbestos and nickel. For IR, compliance with the dose limit cannot be seen as the final objective of protection: the burden is put on the requirement to maintain the doses as low as reasonably achievable, social and economical factors being taken into account (ALARA). In most of the situations, actual exposure to IR in industry appear to be significantly lower than the dose limit. In the case of asbestos and nickel, the exposure limit values are very low and compliance with the limits is indeed a quite ambitious objective. At the practical level, some noticeable differences exist as far as the decision aiding procedures are concerned. A process which may be considered as an ALARA approach is applied, in the case of nickel: seeking for the 'best available technologies', defining and implementing with stakeholdes regional plans for air quality. In the case of asbestos, the predictive

  10. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  11. Comprehensive approach for probabilistic risk assessment (CAPRA): international initiative for disaster risk management effectiveness

    Cardona, Omar D.; Ordaz Schroder, Mario Gustavo; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

    2010-01-01

    Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

  12. CAPRA - Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: international initiative for risk management effectiveness

    Cardona, Omar Darío; Ordaz, Mario G.; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

  13. Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

    2012-09-15

    Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  14. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  15. Development of a GIS approach to mining risk assessment. Supervising Scientist report 159

    Boggs, G.S.

    2001-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS) offers a means by which the data collected during the assessment of possible mining impacts can be stored and manipulated. A GIS that provides a central focus point for the storage, manipulation and retrieval of information generated by the investigation into the geomorphological impact of the ERA Jabiluka Mine has been developed. Implementing a flexible, GIS-centred approach to data management allows the data storage, manipulation and retrieval powers of GIS to be retained whilst maintaining access to the functionality contained within these other software packages. The GIS has also been linked to the DistFW hydrology model and SIBERIA landform evolution model, to provide a more spatial approach to assessing the impact of mining on the long-term landform evolution of a catchment. A GIS based rapid erosion assessment method has been developed and evaluated. The method allows the user to quickly acquire and evaluate existing data to assist in the planning of more detailed monitoring, modelling and erosion assessment programs. The rapid erosion assessment method is based on a simplified version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and allows the rapid parametrisation of the model from widely available land unit and elevation datasets. The rapid erosion assessment method is evaluated through the investigation of the effects of elevation data resolution on erosion predictions and field data validation. More detailed, quantitative risk assessment can be conducted using a combination of landform evolution modelling and basin analysis in a GIS framework. SIBERIA has been parameterized using field data from Ngarradj and applied to the catchment. Due to complexities of the catchment there were some difficulties with the hydrology component. However, the results indicate that SIBERIA is suitable and simulations showed little change in the catchment in the long term. Combining these with newly developed GIS tools to

  16. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    Bokan, S.

    2009-01-01

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  17. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  18. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

    Almeida, O.P.; Alfonso, H.; Pirkis, J; Kerse, N.; Sim, M.; Flicker, L.; Snowdon, J.; Draper, B.; Byrne, G.; Goldney, R.; Lautenschlager, N.T.; Stocks, N.; Scazufca, M.; Huisman, M.; Araya, R.; Pfaff, J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors

  19. Approaches to the risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in food: a critical appraisal.

    O'Brien, J; Renwick, A G; Constable, A; Dybing, E; Müller, D J G; Schlatter, J; Slob, W; Tueting, W; van Benthem, J; Williams, G M; Wolfreys, A

    2006-10-01

    The present paper examines the particular difficulties presented by low levels of food-borne DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens, some of which may be difficult to eliminate completely from the diet, and proposes a structured approach for the evaluation of such compounds. While the ALARA approach is widely applicable to all substances in food that are both carcinogenic and genotoxic, it does not take carcinogenic potency into account and, therefore, does not permit prioritisation based on potential risk or concern. In the absence of carcinogenicity dose-response data, an assessment based on comparison with an appropriate threshold of toxicological concern may be possible. When carcinogenicity data from animal bioassays are available, a useful analysis is achieved by the calculation of margins of exposure (MOEs), which can be used to compare animal potency data with human exposure scenarios. Two reference points on the dose-response relationship that can be used for MOE calculation were examined; the T25 value, which is derived from linear extrapolation, and the BMDL10, which is derived from mathematical modelling of the dose-response data. The above approaches were applied to selected food-borne genotoxic carcinogens. The proposed approach is applicable to all substances in food that are DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens and enables the formulation of appropriate semi-quantitative advice to risk managers.

  20. A risk-informed approach to the assessment of DHC initiation in pressure tubes

    Sahoo, A.K.; Pandey, M.D.

    2009-01-01

    The delayed hydride cracking (DHC) of pressure tubes is a serious form of degradation in the reactor core. Flaws in pressure tubes generated by fretting or any other mechanism are potential stress raisers that could become sites of DHC initiation under right circumstances. CSA standard N285.8 recommends deterministic and probabilistic procedures for the assessment of potential for DHC initiation from planar flaws. The deterministic method is simple, but it lacks a risk-informed basis for the assessment. A full probabilistic method based on simulations is tedious to implement. This paper presents an innovative, semi-probabilistic method that bridges the gap between a simple deterministic analysis and complex simulations. In the proposed method, the deterministic assessment criterion of CSA N285.8 standard is calibrated to specified target probabilities of DHC initiation using the concept of partial factors. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it provides a practical, risk-informed basis for DHC initiation assessment while retaining the simplicity of the deterministic method. (author)

  1. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  2. Systamatic approach to integration of a human reliability analysis into a NPP probabalistic risk assessment

    Fragola, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter describes the human reliability analysis tasks which were employed in the evaluation of the overall probability of an internal flood sequence and its consequences in terms of disabling vulnerable risk significant equipment. Topics considered include the problem familiarization process, the identification and classification of key human interactions, a human interaction review of potential initiators, a maintenance and operations review, human interaction identification, quantification model selection, the definition of operator-induced sequences, the quantification of specific human interactions, skill- and rule-based interactions, knowledge-based interactions, and the incorporation of human interaction-related events into the event tree structure. It is concluded that an integrated approach to the analysis of human interaction within the context of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is feasible

  3. [Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

    Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

  4. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-10-26

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

  5. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Agnes G. Oomen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS, as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

  6. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  7. Overview of risk assessment

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  8. Overview of risk assessment

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  9. Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, Francois

    2005-01-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings

  10. Toxicovigilance: a new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings.

    Descotes, Jacques; Testud, François

    2005-09-01

    The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

  11. Assessing Water Risks in the Mining Industry using Life Cycle Assessment Based Approaches

    STEPHEN ALAN NORTHEY

    2018-01-01

    Recent advances life cycle assessment methodology provide an opportunity to gain a more holistic understanding of how the mining industry interacts with water resources. A detailed review of assessment methodology and water management in the mining industry was undertaken to identify research needs. Global datasets of water use statistics for mining operations were also developed, and an exhaustive analysis of how global mineral resources and production are spatially distributed across local ...

  12. Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

    Cipovová Eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

  13. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  14. Need to use probabilistic risk approach in performance assessment of waste disposal facilities

    Bonano, E.J.; Gallegos, D.P.

    1991-01-01

    Regulations governing the disposal of radioactive, hazardous, and/or mixed wastes will likely require, either directly or indirectly, that the performance of disposal facilities be assessed quantitatively. Such analyses, commonly called ''performance assessments,'' rely on the use of predictive models to arrive at a quantitative estimate of the potential impact of disposal on the environment and the safety and health of the public. It has been recognized that a suite of uncertainties affect the results of a performance assessment. These uncertainties are conventionally categorized as (1) uncertainty in the future state of the disposal system (facility and surrounding medium), (2) uncertainty in models (including conceptual models, mathematical models, and computer codes), and (3) uncertainty in data and parameters. Decisions regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility must be made in light of these uncertainties. Hence, an approach is needed that would allow the explicit consideration of these uncertainties so that their impact on the estimated consequences of disposal can be evaluated. While most regulations for waste disposal do not prescribe the consideration of uncertainties, it is proposed that, even in such cases, a meaningful decision regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility cannot be made without considering the impact of the attendant uncertainties. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach provides the formalism for considering the uncertainties and the technical basis that the decision makers can use in discharging their duties. A PRA methodology developed and demonstrated for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste provides a general framework for assessing the disposal of all types of wastes (radioactive, hazardous, and mixed). 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  15. Quality assessment of state land internal audit agency of Ukraine based on risk-oriented approach

    N.G. Vugovska

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article stipulates that in modern conditions of development and reform of the national system of state financial control to the fore the issue of quality, which is an integral part of - or the provision of a service or product produced. In the context of our study on the evaluation of the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency, is the efficiency of its operation. The authors have developed scientific and methodical approach to assessing the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency of Ukraine by specifying the list of evaluation criteria and the implementation of risk-based model selection controlled entities, which allowed to determine the potential risk of financial irregularities and frequency of inspections by the State Financial Inspection. Determined that the planned inspections of the state Land Agency should be not less than once every two years. Applying the above approach will reduce the number of violations in budgetary institutions, improve the quality control organization by the internal audit work, increase the responsibility of the head of an effective, legitimate and proper use of funds. The authors were asked to form a report on the results of the internal audit quality in budgetary institutions and determined that for the cooperation of internal audit bodies of the State financial inspection need to be able to use the latest internal audit report to provide recommendations to improve the functioning of the internal control systems in controlled entities.

  16. House of risk approach for assessing supply chain risk management strategies: A case study in Crumb Rubber Company Ltd

    Immawan Taufiq

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is an uncertain and can have both negative and positive impacts. If the risks have a negative impact then a company will incur losses. CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD is one of crumb rubber company in West Kalimantan. The length of the supply chain contained in CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD and the high dependence on suppliers leads to vulnerability. So the purpose of this research is to identify the risk and determine the priority of source of risk along with the priority of handling it on CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD supply chain with House of Risk approach. House of risk approach consists of two phases. Phase 1 is used to determine the dominant risk agent and phase 2 determines the effective action to deal with the dominant risk agent. From the research results, there are 19 risk events and 29 risk agents identified. The result of house of risk in phase 1 is known that 13 of 28 risk agents are dominant risk agent. Then the priority handling strategy in house of risk in phase 2, in this phase obtained 18 priority risk handling strategies.

  17. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    substances), 2) ecological parameters (assessing changes in microorganism's community structure and functions, bioindication); and 3) toxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates, genotoxicity). The output will be consisted of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk Index, quantifying the level of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index, assessing the potential threats to biological equilibria, and 3) Genotoxicity Index, screening genotoxic effects. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) will be used to integrate a set of environmental Triad data to be obtained during the project, which will be carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soil contamination of the highly anthropized areas of Kadzhi-Say, which have been impacted by deposition of heavy metals. The basis of the development under this research is studies with a particular focus concerning the biocenosis mapping of Kyrgyz soils (Mamytova et al., 2003, 2010), investigations on interaction of humic substances with soil contaminants (Jorobekova, Kydralieva, Khudaibergenova, 2004; Khudaibergenova, 2005, 2007), and in addition, technical approach for ecotoxicological assessment of soils (Terekhova, 2007, 2011). Soil ecotoxicological estimation has been studied with a battery of tests using test-organisms of many trophic levels. Currently, bioindication of soils with various humus states is under study (Senesi, Yakimenko 2007; Yakimenko, et al., 2008).

  18. A model-based approach to preplanting risk assessment for gray leaf spot of maize.

    Paul, P A; Munkvold, G P

    2004-12-01

    ABSTRACT Risk assessment models for gray leaf spot of maize, caused by Cercospora zeae-maydis, were developed using preplanting site and maize genotype data as predictors. Disease severity at the dough/dent plant growth stage was categorized into classes and used as the response variable. Logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling approaches were used to predict severity classes as a function of planting date (PD), amount of maize soil surface residue (SR), cropping sequence, genotype maturity and gray leaf spot resistance (GLSR) ratings, and longitude (LON). Models were development using 332 cases collected between 1998 and 2001. Thirty cases collected in 2002 were used to validate the models. Preplanting data showed a strong relationship with late-season gray leaf spot severity classes. The most important predictors were SR, PD, GLSR, and LON. Logistic regression models correctly classified 60 to 70% of the validation cases, whereas the CART models correctly classified 57 to 77% of these cases. Cases misclassified by the CART models were mostly due to overestimation, whereas the logistic regression models tended to misclassify cases by underestimation. Both the CART and logistic regression models have potential as management decision-making tools. Early quantitative assessment of gray leaf spot risk would allow for more sound management decisions being made when warranted.

  19. Using the weight-of-evidence approach for ecological risk assessment at a DOE facility

    Hull, R.N.; Suter, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    The Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), an uranium enrichment plant, has released various contaminants into the environment. An ecological risk assessment is underway for the site, which includes an evaluation of Little Beaver Creek, which flows along the eastern and northern sides of PORTS. For this assessment, the creek was divided into reaches which were defined in terms of contaminant sources. This creek receives contaminants from permitted outfalls, groundwater discharge, non-point sources, and accidental releases. Metal contamination is the major concern at the site. Receptors include the fish and benthic communities in the creek, and soil invertebrates and plants in the floodplain. A weight-of-evidence approach was used to evaluate risks to those receptors, based on chemical analyses, toxicity tests and field surveys. The fish and benthic communities are impacted on Little Beaver Creek in a reach near a permitted discharge, with improvements seen downstream of this location. Ambient water, sediment and soil samples were not toxic to laboratory organisms. Either these toxicity tests were not sufficiently sensitive to detect toxicity, or the observed changes in the aquatic communities did not result from toxicity. Because conditions improved downstream from the permitted discharge, it was concluded that this is the major source of toxicity in the creek

  20. A shortened version of the THERP/Handbook approach to human reliability analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

    Swain, A.D.

    1986-01-01

    The approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) known as THERP/Handbook has been applied to several probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and other complex systems. The approach is based on a thorough task analysis of the man-machine interfaces, including the interactions among the people, involved in the operations being assessed. The idea is to assess fully the underlying performance shaping factors (PSFs) and dependence effects which result either in reliable or unreliable human performance

  1. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  2. Development and application of the SSD approach in scientific case studies for ecological risk assessment.

    Del Signore, Anastasia; Hendriks, A Jan; Lenders, H J Rob; Leuven, Rob S E W; Breure, A M

    2016-09-01

    Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are used in ecological risk assessment for extrapolation of the results of toxicity tests with single species to a toxicity threshold considered protective of ecosystem structure and functioning. The attention to and importance of the SSD approach has increased in scientific and regulatory communities since the 1990s. Discussion and criticism have been triggered on the concept of the approach as well as its technical aspects (e.g., distribution type, number of toxicity endpoints). Various questions remain unanswered, especially with regard to different endpoints, statistical methods, and protectiveness of threshold levels, for example. In the present literature review (covering the period 2002-2013), case studies are explored in which the SSD approach was applied, as well as how endpoint types, species choice, and data availability affect SSDs. How statistical methods may be used to construct reliable SSDs and whether the lower 5th percentile hazard concentrations (HC5s) from a generic SSD can be protective for a specific local community are also investigated. It is shown that estimated protective concentrations were determined by taxonomic groups rather than the statistical method used to construct the distribution. Based on comparisons between semifield and laboratory-based SSDs, the output from a laboratory SSD was protective of semifield communities in the majority of studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2149-2161. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  3. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  5. Risk assessment

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  6. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  7. Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

  8. Assessment of Clinical Risk Management System in Hospitals: An Approach for Quality Improvement.

    Farokhzadian, Jamileh; Dehghan Nayeri, Nahid; Borhani, Fariba

    2015-03-18

    Clinical risks have created major problems in healthcare system such as serious adverse effects on patient safety and enhancing the financial burden for the healthcare. Thus, clinical risk management (CRM) system has been introduced for improving the quality and safety of services to health care. The aim of this study was to assess the status of CRM in the hospitals. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 nursing staff from three teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast of Iran. Data were collected from the participants using questionnaire and observational checklist in quality improvement offices and selected wards. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Almost, 57% of persons participated in at least one of training sessions on CRM. The status of CRM system was rated from weak to moderate (2.93±0.72- 3.18±0.66). Among the six domains of CRM system, the highest mean belonged to domain the monitoring of analysis, evaluation and risk control (3.18±0.72); the lowest mean belonged to domain the staff's knowledge, recognition and understanding of CRM (2.93±0.66). There were no integrated electronic systems for recording and analyzing clinical risks and incidents in the hospitals. Attempts have been made to establish CRM through improvement quality approach such as clinical governance and accreditation, but not enough, however, health care should move toward quality improvement and safe practice through the effective integration of CRM in organizational process.

  9. Offshore risk assessment

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  10. Approaches for Establishing Fraud Risk Assessment Programs and Conducting Fraud Audit Risk Assessments Within the Department of Defense

    2014-07-17

    the day are not locked. 3. Pilfering vending merchandise 4. Misuse of government vehicles vending house exterior door, office doors and the... merchandise for the day. The merchandise is verified by a Gap: Documentation of unannounced change fund counts is not maintained. 10. Inaccurate...colors. A simple heat map provides an immediate visual summary of information. Source: SearchBusinessAnalytics.com 64 │ DODIG-2014-094 Approaches for

  11. Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

    Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

    2014-07-01

    The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

    Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    ) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....

  13. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  14. Human health risk assessment screening approach for evaluating contaminants at source control and integrator operable units

    Blaylock, B.G.; Frank, M.L.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, P.D.; White, R.K.; Purucker, S.T.; Redfearn, A.

    1992-10-01

    A more streamlined approach is proposed for executing the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Process. This approach recognizes the uncertainties associated with the process, particularly regarding the derivation of human health risk estimates. The approach is tailored for early identification of sites and contaminants of immediate concern, early remediation of such sites, and early identification of low-risk sites that can be eliminated from further investigations. The purpose is to hasten the clean-up process and do so in a cost-effective manner

  15. Sovereign default risk assessment

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  16. Men Who Abuse Their Spouses: An Approach to Assessing Future Risk.

    Goldsmith, Herbert R.

    1990-01-01

    Studied risk assessment for abuse cases by examining cases (N=20) referred to local spouse treatment center. Focused on woman's perception of mate's personality/behavioral characteristics and relationship plus other situational factors. Confirmed majority of risk factors associated with spouse abuse as reported in the literature. Presents pilot…

  17. Biosafety risk assessment approaches for insect-resistant genetically modified crops

    Inaam Ullah

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Environmental risk assessment (ERA is imperative for commercial release of insect resistant, genetically modified crops (IR-GMCs.An insect specific, spider venom peptideω-HXTX-Hv1a (Hvt was successfully expressed in cotton plants. The cotton plants producing Hvt protein have demonstrated resistance against economically important insect pest species. The study was performed to assess the effects of Hvt producing cotton plants on Honey bees (Apis mellifera. Methods: Three approaches were used to evaluate the effects of Hvt protein on adults of honeybees; whole plant assays in flight cages, in vitro assays with pollen of Hvt-cotton, and assays with elevated levels of purified Hvt protein. Pollens of Bt cotton or purified Bt proteins were used as control. Results: The field experiments did not yield any meaningful data due to high rate of mortality in all treatments including the control. However, the laboratory experiments provided conclusive results in which Hvt, purified or in pollens, did not affect the survival or longevity of the bees compared to the control. During the course of study we were able to compare the quality, effectiveness and economics of different experiments. Conclusions: We conclude that Hvt either purified or produced in cotton plants do not affect the survival or longevity of honey bees. We are also of the view that starting at laboratory level assays not only gives meaningful data but also saves a lot of time and money that can be spent on other important questions regarding safety of a particular transgenic crop. Hence, a purpose-based, tiered approach could be the best choice for pre-release ERA of IR-GMCs.

  18. Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

    Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae

    2017-01-01

    The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint

  19. Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

    Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution Company (NESS), Daejeon Business Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint.

  20. Approaches in the risk assessment of genetically modified foods by the Hellenic Food Safety Authority.

    Varzakas, Theodoros H; Chryssochoidis, G; Argyropoulos, D

    2007-04-01

    material that should try to protect from patenting and commercialisation. Finally, we should be aware of the requirements of movement of GMOs within borders, i.e. GMOs grown or used in other countries but which are not intended to cross into Greece, since Greece is very close to countries that are non-EU. This is where the development of a new, integrated, trustworthy and transparent food quality control system will help to satisfy the societal demands for safe and quality products. On the other hand, Greece should not be isolated from any recent scientific technological development and should assess the possible advantages for some cultivation using a case by case approach. Finally, the safety assessment of GM foods and feed has been discussed according to the risk assessment methodology applied by EFSA.

  1. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in foods under special consideration of risk assessment approaches

    Nørrung, Birgit

    2000-01-01

    This paper shortly summarizes data related to risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes. From available data on risk assessment, it is concluded that the levels of L. monocytogenes consumed is an important factor affecting the incidence of listeriosis. Foods that do not support the growth of L....... monocytogenes are unlikely to be a source of listeriosis, whereas foods that support the growth to high levels, should be the target of risk management efforts. Based on current epidemiological information from several countries, a concentration of L. monocytogenes not exceeding 100/g of food at the time...... of L. monocytogenes in the food during prevailing storage and distribution conditions is needed....

  3. Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

    Shikha Verma

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

  4. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-10-15

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  5. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    Kucukali, Serhat

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  6. Design of an environmental site assessment template for open radioactive site contamination : a radioecological risk approach and case study

    Nguyen, T.

    2004-01-01

    To reduce redundancy, cost, and time, while at the same time ultimately increasing the effectiveness of the radioactive risk management process, a logical framework incorporating risk assessments (human cancer and environmental risks) into the environmental site assessment process was designed for radioactive open site contamination. Risk-based corrective action is becoming an increasingly more acceptable approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. In the past, cleanup goals were usually established without any regard to the risk involved, by mandating remediation goals based solely on maximum contamination levels. Now, a multi-stage environmental site assessment template has been developed on a radioecological approach. The template gives a framework for making environmentally sound decisions based on relevant regulations and guidelines. The first stage involves the comparison of the background screening activity level to the regulated activity level, the second stage involves the use of site-specific information to determine the risk involved with the contamination, and the third stage provides a remediation decision matrix based on results from the first two stages. This environmental site assessment template is unique because it incorporates the modified Canadian National Classification System for radioactive contaminated sites and two different types of risk assessments (human cancer risks and the newly designed ecological risk) into the decision making process. The template was used to assess a radiologically contaminated site at the Canadian Forces Base at Suffield (Alberta) as a case study, and it reaffirms the Department of National Defence's action as appropriate. This particular site is a Class 3, has an overall insignificant human cancer risk ( -6 ) and a low environmental risk, and conforms to all regulated guidelines. Currently, it is restricted and should be left as is, provided that the subsurface is not disturbed. (author)

  7. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

  8. A Bayesian approach to probabilistic sensitivity analysis in structured benefit-risk assessment.

    Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Nixon, Richard; Ashby, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative decision models such as multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used in benefit-risk assessment to formalize trade-offs between benefits and risks, providing transparency to the assessment process. There is however no well-established method for propagating uncertainty of treatment effects data through such models to provide a sense of the variability of the benefit-risk balance. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method that directly models the outcomes observed in randomized placebo-controlled trials and uses this to infer indirect comparisons between competing active treatments. The resulting treatment effects estimates are suitable for use within the MCDA setting, and it is possible to derive the distribution of the overall benefit-risk balance through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The method is illustrated using a case study of natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Introduction to risk assessment

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  10. Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

    Leuschner, R. G. K.; Robinson, T. P.; Hugas, M.

    2010-01-01

    Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to notified biological agents aiming at simplifying risk assessments across different scientific Panels and Units. The aim of this review is to outline the implementation...... and value of the QPS assessment for EFSA and to explain its principles such as the unambiguous identity of a taxonomic unit, the body of knowledge including potential safety concerns and how these considerations lead to a list of biological agents recommended for QPS which EFSA keeps updated through...

  11. A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

    Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

    Temitope O. Alimi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

  13. A regional approach to the environmental risk assessment in the Campania region

    Minolfi, Giulia; Albanese, Stefano; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

    2016-04-01

    Environmental risk assessment and analysis has a crucial role for guaranteeing the safety of the population, especially in intensive urbanized and industrialized areas, such as the Campania region (Italy). In Italy, since 2006, the human health risk assessment has become mandatory for contaminated soil and waters at contaminated sites. While traditional risk assessment procedures are usually run at site specific level (brownfields), with this work we would like to introduce a freshly developed method to assess risks at regional level by means of GIS, considering the hazard due to the presence in the environment of a contaminated media, the land use variability and the actual distribution of the population. 3535 top soils were collected across the whole Campania region (Italy) with a sampling density of 1 sample/4 km2. Samples were analyzed at ACME Analytical Lab. Ltd (Vancouver, Canada), to determine the concentration of 52 elements, with a combined methods of ICP-MS and ICP-ES following an aqua regia digestion. After a detailed statistical data analysis and geochemical mapping, we reclassified the interpolated maps of some potentially toxic elements (Sb, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, Sn, Tl, V, Zn), in accordance with the Italian environmental law (D.Lgs 152/2006), on the base of the trigger and action limits (CSC) for human safety established by this latter. The obtained maps were summed up in the GIS environment in order to get a cumulative map of the potential hazard for the topsoils of Campania region. Considering that environmental risk for the population is strongly influenced by the exposure pathways followed by contaminants to reach the human target, in the case of Campania region we evaluated as relevant pathways both the soil/dust and food ingestion. Furthermore to consider the influence of the land use in the onset of the risk, each land use type was associated with a specific value of a Land Use Risk Coefficient (LURC) which is also dependent on

  14. Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

    Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

    2018-02-01

    Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

  15. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  16. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules

    Topuz, E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and

  17. Dose and risk assessment approach for the Fernald CERCLA D ampersand D Project

    Throckmorton, J.D.; Clark, T.R.; Waligora, S.J. Jr.; Haaker, R.F.

    1994-01-01

    At the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) the uranium processing facilities used from the 1952 through 1989 are near or beyond their intended design life. These current conditions present an increasing probability for future releases of hazardous substances to the environment. To support a decision by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to remediate the buildings, a dose and risk assessment was performed to determine the extent of exposure that would be associated with the controlled decontamination and dismantlement (D ampersand D) of the Fernald facilities. A conceptual risk assessment model was developed, with exposure mechanisms and associated pathways for each potential receptor. The three receptor groups were defined as: the remediation workers, other on-site workers (those not performing D ampersand D), and off-site residents. For use in the conceptual model, an airborne source term was developed through process knowledge, other historical information and data, and air sample data from within the facilities. Individual and collective doses and risks were developed for each receptor and for each population group. The risk assessment demonstrated that all exposures resulting from the action would be within the acceptable DOE administrative control level of 2.0 rem per year for occupational workers and the acceptable EPA risk range from 10 -6 to 10 -4 for the general public

  18. State of risk assessment

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  19. A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

    Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

    2012-01-01

    We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

  20. Recognising one's enemies : a functional approach to risk assessment by prey

    Grostal, P.; Dicke, M.

    2000-01-01

    Little has been done to compare the relative importance of various mechanisms through which prey assess the potential risk from natural enemies. We used predator-naive spider mites (Tetranychus urticae, Tetranychidae) to (1) compare the responses of prey to chemical cues from enemy and non-enemy

  1. Risk-informed approaches to assess ecological safety of facilities with radioactive waste

    Vashchenko, V.N.; Zlochevskij, V.V.; Skalozubov, V.I.

    2011-01-01

    Ingenious risk-informed methods to assess ecological safety of facilities with radioactive waste are proposed in the paper. Probabilistic norms on lethal outcomes and reliability of safety barriers are used as safety criteria. Based on the probability measures, it is established that ecological safety conditions are met for the standard criterion of lethal outcomes

  2. Improved dosimetry and risk assessment for plutonium-induced lung disease using a microdosimetric approach

    Nikula, K.J.; Hahn, F.F.; Guilmette, R.A. [Lovelace Respiratory Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romanov, S.A.; Muksinova, K.N.; Nifatov, A.P.; Revina, V.S.

    2000-05-01

    The risk of developing radiation-induced lung cancer is currently estimated using models based on epidemiological data from populations exposed either to relatively uniform, low-LET radiation, or from uranium miners exposed to radon and its progeny. Because inhaled alpha-emitting radionuclides (e.g., Pu, Am) produce nonuniform, chronic irradiation of the parenchymal region of the lung, a better scientific basis is needed for assessing the risk of developing radiation-induced disease from these radionuclides. Scientists at FIB-1 and LRRI are using a unique resource at the FIB-1, i.e., a set of about 600 lung specimens fixed in 10% formalin, and obtained from a population of workers at the Mayak Production Association, many of whom inhaled significant quantities of Pu and other alpha-emitting radionuclides during their careers. The objectives of this research are to measure the microscopic distribution of Pu by quantitative autoradiography, to determine the spatial distribution of Pu in human lung tissue with respect to specific lung structures and to determine the effect of chronic tobacco-smoke exposure on the distribution of local Pu radiation dose. The approach to analyzing these lung samples is to utilize contemporary stereological sampling and analysis techniques together with quantitative alpha-particle autoradiography. Our initial results have validated the usefulness of these lung specimens for determining Pu particle distribution with respect to anatomic location, as well as identifying normal and diseased compartments in the lung. In brief, particles were most often found associated with parenchymal and nonparenchymal scars, with other particles in organized lymphoid tissue or the interstitium of the pulmonary parenchyma (respiratory bronchioles and alveolar region). Based on comparison of one lung from a smoker and one from a nonsmoker, there was an increased fraction of Pu particles associated with tissue scars in the smoker vs the nonsmoker, and this

  3. Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

    Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Jianping Xue

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distributions functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates. 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  4. Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

    Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Xue, J.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distribution functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates

  5. An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

    Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

    1981-01-01

    Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

  6. Interdisciplinary Approach for Assessment of Continental River Flood Risk: A Case Study of the Czech Republic

    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Kwak, Youngjoo; Ledvinka, Ondřej; Iwami, Yoichi; Danhelka, Jan

    2017-04-01

    In this research, GIS-based hydrological model-driven approach produces the distribution of continent-level flood risk based on national-level GIS data. In order to reveal flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a large river basin, the system employs the simplified model such as GFiD2M (Global Flood inundation Depth 2-dimension Model) to calculate the differential inundation depth and the economic loss by pixel-based statistical processing, considering climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the representative concentration pathways emissions and the shared socioeconomic pathways, despite current limitations of data collections and poor data availability. We need new approaches to seek the possibility of its national-scale application, so that the framework can bring (1) improved flood inundation map (i.e., discharge, depth, velocity) using rainfall runoff inundation model, based on the in-situ data (rain-gauge and water level), validated with Earth Observation data, i.e., MODIS, (2) advanced flood forecasting using radar and satellite observed rainfall for national-level operational hydrological observations, (3) potential economic impact with the effect of flood hazard and risk under climate and socioeconomic changes based on rainfall from general circulation model. The preliminary examinations showed the better possibility of a nation-wide application for integrated flood risk management. At the same time, the hazard and risk model were also validated against event-based flood inundation of a national-level flood in the Czech Republic. Within the Czech Republic, although radar rainfall data have been used in operational hydrology for some time, there are also other products capable of warning us about the potential risk of floods. For instance, images from Europe's Sentinel satellites have not been evaluated for their use in Czech hydrology. This research is at the very beginning of a validation and its evaluation, focusing mainly on heavy rainfall and

  7. An approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk from natural disasters in a geographic region

    Zlateva, Plamena; Stoyanov, Krasimir

    2009-01-01

    The paper proposes an approach for a complex assessment of the geo-ecological risk of a certain geographic region on the basis of quantitative and qualitative datum about the potential natural disasters. A fuzzy logic model is designed. The type of the threats, consequences and interdependencies between infrastructure objects are taken into account. The geographic region is considered as a complex system of interconnected and mutually influencing elements. The expected damages are directly and/or indirectly connected with life quality deterioration. Keywords: Risk, Geo-ecological risk, Damages, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Natural disasters

  8. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  9. An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

    Larsson, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide

  10. Limitations of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for risk assessment of halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons

    Safe, S. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Veterinary Physiology and Pharmacology

    1995-12-31

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs) are present as complex mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and biphenyls (PCBs) in most environmental matrices. Risk management of these mixtures utilize the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach in which the TCDD (dioxin) or toxic equivalents of a mixture is a summation of the congener concentration (Ci) times TEF{sub i} (potency relative to TCDD) where. TEQ{sub mixture} = {Sigma}[Cil] {times} TEF{sub i}. TEQs are determined only for those HAHs which are aryl hydrocarbon (Ah) receptor agonists and this approach assumes that the toxic or biochemical effects of individual compounds in a mixture are additive. Several in vivo and in vitro laboratory and field studies with different HAH mixtures have been utilized to validate the TEF approach. For some responses, the calculated toxicities of PCDD/PCDF and PCB mixtures predict the observed toxic potencies. However, for fetal cleft palate and immunotoxicity in mice, nonadditive (antagonistic) responses are observed using complex PCB mixtures or binary mixtures containing an Ah receptor agonist with 2,2{prime},4,4{prime},5,5{prime}-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB153). The potential interactive effects of PCBs and other dietary Ah receptor antagonist suggest that the TEF approach for risk management of HAHs requires further refinement and should be used selectively.

  11. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-11-01

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so-called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing 1 chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes "Common Principles" to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of these 6 principles are: "reduce hazard" and "minimize exposure." A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this article serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build on practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through 2 hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These 2 case studies-inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain-demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard and exposure (risk) analysis. This article informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk context

  12. A systems approach to risk assessment: Application to methylmercury from coal combustion

    Saroff, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1995-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) asked Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the health risks associated with Hg from coal-fired power plants. The objective of the assessment is to estimate the incremental health risks that might ensue from a typical coal-fired power plant, together with their uncertainties, taking into account existing background levels and the actual adverse health effects that have previously been associated with exposure to various Hg species. Mercury has a long history of association with adverse neurological effects at high exposure levels. The most important current exposure pathway has been found to be ingestion of fish containing methylmercury (MeHg), which is the end product of bioconcentration moving up the aquatic food chain. Mercury can enter natural waters from either industrial discharges or from atmospheric deposition of various inorganic Ho. compounds. Because of the worldwide background and the existence of local emissions sources, Hg deposition must be considered on local, regional and global scales. The regulatory technical challenge presented by methy1mercury is to protect public health without foreclosing an appreciable a portion of the food supply or impacting on the lifestyles of North American native populations. This paper presents an abbreviated account of the DOE/BNL risk assessment, as viewed from a systems perspective. We review the structure of the model, the sources of data used, the assumptions that were made, and the interpretation of the findings. Since publication of the first risk assessment report, we have refined our estimates of local atmospheric dispersion and deposition and {open_quotes}calibrated{close_quotes} the pharmacokinetic portion of the model against observations.

  13. Identifying and Mitigating the Impact of the Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks

    2016-04-30

    Ü~åÖÉ= - 351 - products, similar to those found in a bill of material. Figure 3 provides an example of the relationship between sectors , sub- sectors ...defense aircraft. Defense aircraft are divided in three main sub- sectors : fixed-wing, rotary wing, and unmanned systems. The fixed-wing sub- sector ...Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer, MIBP, OUSD(AT&L) Sally

  14. A probabilistic risk assessment approach used to prioritize chemical constituents in mainstream smoke of cigarettes sold in China.

    Xie, Jianping; Marano, Kristin M; Wilson, Cody L; Liu, Huimin; Gan, Huamin; Xie, Fuwei; Naufal, Ziad S

    2012-03-01

    The chemical and physical complexity of cigarette mainstream smoke (MSS) presents a challenge in the understanding of risk for smoking-related diseases. Quantitative risk assessment is a useful tool for assessing the toxicological risks that may be presented by smoking currently available commercial cigarettes. In this study, yields of a selected group of chemical constituents were quantified in machine-generated MSS from 30 brands of cigarettes sold in China. Using constituent yields, exposure estimates specific to and representative of the Chinese population, and available dose-response data, a Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate probability distributions for incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), hazard quotient (HQ), and margin of exposure (MOE) values for each constituent as appropriate. Measures of central tendency were extracted from the outcome distributions and constituents were ranked according to these three risk assessment indices. The constituents for which ILCR >10(-4), HQ >1, and MOE risk contributed by each MSS constituent, this approach provides a plausible and objective framework for the prioritization of toxicants in cigarette smoke and is valuable in guiding tobacco risk management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

  16. A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea.

    Maria Grazia Pennino

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP, which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

  17. Risk Assessment for Parents Who Suspect Their Child Has Autism Spectrum Disorder: Machine Learning Approach.

    Ben-Sasson, Ayelet; Robins, Diana L; Yom-Tov, Elad

    2018-04-24

    Parents are likely to seek Web-based communities to verify their suspicions of autism spectrum disorder markers in their child. Automated tools support human decisions in many domains and could therefore potentially support concerned parents. The objective of this study was to test the feasibility of assessing autism spectrum disorder risk in parental concerns from Web-based sources, using automated text analysis tools and minimal standard questioning. Participants were 115 parents with concerns regarding their child's social-communication development. Children were 16- to 30-months old, and 57.4% (66/115) had a family history of autism spectrum disorder. Parents reported their concerns online, and completed an autism spectrum disorder-specific screener, the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers-Revised, with Follow-up (M-CHAT-R/F), and a broad developmental screener, the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ). An algorithm predicted autism spectrum disorder risk using a combination of the parent's text and a single screening question, selected by the algorithm to enhance prediction accuracy. Screening measures identified 58% (67/115) to 88% (101/115) of children at risk for autism spectrum disorder. Children with a family history of autism spectrum disorder were 3 times more likely to show autism spectrum disorder risk on screening measures. The prediction of a child's risk on the ASQ or M-CHAT-R was significantly more accurate when predicted from text combined with an M-CHAT-R question selected (automatically) than from the text alone. The frequently automatically selected M-CHAT-R questions that predicted risk were: following a point, make-believe play, and concern about deafness. The internet can be harnessed to prescreen for autism spectrum disorder using parental concerns by administering a few standardized screening questions to augment this process. ©Ayelet Ben-Sasson, Diana L Robins, Elad Yom-Tov. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet

  18. Research approaches to address uncertainties in the risk assessment of arsenic in drinking water

    Hughes, Michael F.; Kenyon, Elaina M.; Kitchin, Kirk T.

    2007-01-01

    Inorganic arsenic (iAs), an environmental drinking water contaminant, is a human toxicant and carcinogen. The public health community has developed recommendations and regulations that limit human exposure to iAs in drinking water. Although there is a vast amount of information available to regulators on the exposure, disposition and the health-related effects of iAs, there is still critical information about the toxicology of this metalloid that is needed. This necessary information includes identification of the chemical species of arsenic that is (are) the active toxicant(s), the mode(s) of action for its various toxicities and information on potentially susceptible populations. Because of these unknown factors, the risk assessment of iAs still incorporates default assumptions, leading to uncertainties in the overall assessment. The characteristics of a scientifically defensible risk assessment for iAs are that it must: (1) quantitatively link exposure and target tissue dose of active metabolites to key events in the mode of action for major health effects and (2) identify sources of variation in susceptibility to arsenic-induced health effects and quantitatively evaluate their impact wherever possible. Integration of research to address these goals will better protect the health of iAs-exposed populations

  19. Environmental Risk Assessment of antimicrobials applied in veterinary medicine-A field study and laboratory approach.

    Slana, Marko; Dolenc, Marija Sollner

    2013-01-01

    The fate and environmental risk of antimicrobial compounds of different groups of veterinary medicine pharmaceuticals (VMP's) have been compared. The aim was to demonstrate a correlation between the physical and chemical properties of active compounds and their metabolism in target animals, as well as their fate in the environment. In addition, the importance of techniques for manure management and agricultural practice and their influence on the fate of active compounds is discussed. The selected active compounds are shown to be susceptible to at least one environmental factor (sun, water, bacterial or fungal degradation) to which they are exposed during their life cycle, which contributes to its degradation. Degradation under a number of environmental factors has also to be considered as authentic information additional to that observed in the limited conditions in laboratory studies and in Environmental Risk Assessment calculations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. An empirical approach to the credit risk assessment of a microfinance institution in Peru

    Juan Lara Rubio

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The growth of micro-credit along with the excellent conditions to carry out microfinance activity in the economy and financial system of the Republic of Peru are pushing for Microfinance Institutions (IMF increased competition with banks in this segment business. Like in commercial banks, in microfinance questions such as: is this customer profitable?, What is the credit limit that I must accept to his/her application?, What interest rate should I charge to him/ her?, How I can reduce the risk default?, etc., are matters to be assessed properly. We propose a method that could facilitate improvement in customer qualification between failed and not failed. To this end, we propose a methodology that analyzes credit risk in the provision of microcredit through the design of a credit scoring model that we apply to a Development Agency for Small and Micro Enterprise (EDPYME, which is an IMF under the supervision by the Banking and Insurance Superintendency (SBS.

  1. Metamodeling-based approach for risk assessment and cost estimation: Application to geological carbon sequestration planning

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Jeong, Hoonyoung; González-Nicolás, Ana; Templeton, Thomas C.

    2018-04-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being evaluated globally as a geoengineering measure for significantly reducing greenhouse emission. However, long-term liability associated with potential leakage from these geologic repositories is perceived as a main barrier of entry to site operators. Risk quantification and impact assessment help CCS operators to screen candidate sites for suitability of CO2 storage. Leakage risks are highly site dependent, and a quantitative understanding and categorization of these risks can only be made possible through broad participation and deliberation of stakeholders, with the use of site-specific, process-based models as the decision basis. Online decision making, however, requires that scenarios be run in real time. In this work, a Python based, Leakage Assessment and Cost Estimation (PyLACE) web application was developed for quantifying financial risks associated with potential leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites. PyLACE aims to assist a collaborative, analytic-deliberative decision making processes by automating metamodel creation, knowledge sharing, and online collaboration. In PyLACE, metamodeling, which is a process of developing faster-to-run surrogates of process-level models, is enabled using a special stochastic response surface method and the Gaussian process regression. Both methods allow consideration of model parameter uncertainties and the use of that information to generate confidence intervals on model outputs. Training of the metamodels is delegated to a high performance computing cluster and is orchestrated by a set of asynchronous job scheduling tools for job submission and result retrieval. As a case study, workflow and main features of PyLACE are demonstrated using a multilayer, carbon storage model.

  2. Archaeology, historical site risk assessment and monitoring by UAV: approaches and case studies

    Pecci, Antonio; Masini, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    , Ychma and Inca. A test site has been selected to assess the capability of SAR satellite data for the identification of earthen archaeological features. UAV surveys have been performed to provide a very detail DEM enabling us to analyze and interpret the radar signal backscattering behaviour of archaeological microrelief and structures. In all the three applications UAV proved to be an effective, user-friendly, less time consuming, flexible tool for a number of applications and aims ranging from from the site detection to the risk evaluation of archaeological interest areas. References Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2012. Remote Sensing in Archaeology: From Visual Data Interpretation to Digital Data Manipulation, In: Lasaponara R., Masini N. (Eds) 2012, Satellite Remote Sensing: a new tool for Archaeology, Springer, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-90-481-8800-0, pp. 3-16, doi : 10.1007/978-90-481-8801-7_1. Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2013, Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar in Archaeology and Cultural Landscape: An Overview. Archaeological Prospection, 20, 71-78, doi: 10.1002/arp.1452 Lasaponara R., Leucci G., Masini N., Persico R., Scardozzi G. 2016a. Towards an operative use of remote sensing for exploring the past using satellite data: The case study of Hierapolis (Turkey), Remote sensing of Environment, 174 (2016) : 148-164, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.12.016 Lasaponara R., Masini N., Pecci A., Perciante F., Pozzi Escot D., Rizzo E., Scavone M., Sileo M. 2016b, Qualitative evaluation of COSMO SkyMed in the detection of earthen archaeological remains: the case of Pachamacac (Peru)", Journal of Cultural heritage, 2016, in press. Leucci G., Masini N., Rizzo E., Capozzoli L., De Martino G. et al., Integrated Archaeogeophysical Approach for the Study of a Medieval Monastic Settlement in Basilicata, Open Archaeology 2015; 1: 236-246, doi: 10.1515/opar-2015-0014. F. Neitzel, J. Klonowski, Mobile 3d mapping with a low-cost UAV system, Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf

  3. Systematic approach for assessment of accident risks in chemical and nuclear processing

    Senne Junior, Murillo

    2003-07-01

    The industrial accidents which occurred in the last years, particularly in the 80's, contributed a significant way to draw the attention of the government, industry and the society as a whole to the mechanisms for preventing events that could affect people's safety and the environment quality. Techniques and methods extensively used the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries so far were adapted to performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. The risk analysis in industrial facilities is carried out through the evaluation of the probability or frequency of the accidents and their consequences. However, no systematized methodology that could supply the tools for identifying possible accidents likely to take place in an installation is available in the literature. Neither existing are methodologies for the identification of the models for evaluation of the accidents' consequences nor for the selection of the available techniques for qualitative or quantitative analysis of the possibility of occurrence of the accident being focused. The objective of this work is to develop and implement a methodology for identification of the risks of accidents in chemical and nuclear processing facilities as well as for the evaluation of their consequences on persons. For the development of the methodology, the main possible accidents that could occur in such installations were identified and the qualitative and quantitative techniques available for the identification of the risks and for the evaluation of the consequences of each identified accidents were selected. The use of the methodology was illustrated by applying it in two case examples adapted from the literature, involving accidents with inflammable, explosives, and radioactive materials. The computer code MRA - Methodology for Risk Assessment was developed using DELPHI, version 5.0, with the purpose of systematizing

  4. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  5. Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

    O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

    2017-11-10

    Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  6. Vulnerability assessment to Drought in Various Provinces, approach towards risk management in the country

    F. Nasrnia

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The water crisis is one of the main challenges of the current century. Drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in Iran. During the past 40 years, our country has experienced 27 droughts. It seems a necessary step to deal with the consequences of drought and reducing its effects, thorough understanding and knowledge of each region's vulnerability, which is neglected in our country, unfortunately. It is necessary to study the influencing factors in determining vulnerability and makes it visible. On the other hand, due to the continuing drought conditions intensified in recent years and its impact on different economic sectors, especially the agricultural sector in the country need to assess vulnerability to drought in the country will double. Materials and Methods: Fuzzy AHP method based on the concept of fuzzy sets introduced by LotfeiZadeh. There are several ways to use fuzzy theory and hierarchical structure proposed merger. Cheng in 1996 suggested a new approach to solve problems using Fuzzy AHP calibration values within the membership and (TFNs. Extent Analysis Method proposed by Chang is one of the common ways to solve problems. In this study, we developed a method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy Chang that has been developed by Zhu et al. and Van Alhag. Results and Discussion: Vulnerability to drought conditions is determined by factors such as economic, social and physical sensitivity to the damaging effects of drought increases. This study is designed in the hierarchy. The purpose of this study is assessing the vulnerability of the country to drought. Vulnerability of this study includes economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and physical vulnerability. Economic vulnerability to drought indicates that the economy is vulnerable to external shocks due to drought and the inability of the economy to withstand the effects of the event and recover the situation. Social vulnerability determines the capacity to

  7. An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study (Final Report, 2010)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study. This report outlines an approach to evaluate genomic data for use in risk assessment and a case study to ...

  8. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

    Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

    2015-01-01

    We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

  9. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: a comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches.

    D'Acremont, Mathieu; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-12-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed.

  10. A novel land use approach for assessment of human health: The relationship between urban structure types and cardiorespiratory disease risk.

    Réquia Júnior, Weeberb João; Roig, Henrique Llacer; Koutrakis, Petros

    2015-12-01

    Extensive evidence shows that in addition to lifestyle factors, environmental aspects are an important risk factor for human health. Numerous approaches have been used to estimate the relationship between environment and health. For example, the urban characteristics, especially the types of land use, are considered a potential proxy indicator to evaluate risk of disease. Although several studies have used land use variables to assess human health, none of them has used the concept of Urban Morphology by Urban Structure Types (USTs) as indicators of land use. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between USTs and cardiorespiratory disease risks in the Federal District, Brazil. Toward this end, we used a quantile regression model to estimate risk. We used 21 types of UST. Income and population density were used as covariates in our sensitivity analysis. Our analysis showed an association between cardiorespiratory diseases risk and 10 UST variables (1 related to rural area, 6 related to residential area, 1 recreational area, 1 public area and 1 commercial area). Our findings suggest that the conventional land use method may be missing important information about the effect of land use on human health. The use of USTs can be an approach to complement the conventional method. This should be of interest to policy makers in order to enhance public health policies and to create future strategies in terms of urban planning, land use and environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

    Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

    2014-01-01

    Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

  12. An Integrated Simulation, Inference and Optimization Approach for Groundwater Remediation with Two-stage Health-Risk Assessment

    Aili Yang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an integrated simulation, inference and optimization approach with two-stage health risk assessment (i.e., ISIO-THRA is developed for supporting groundwater remediation for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Both environmental standards and health risk are considered as the constraints in the ISIO-THRA model. The health risk includes two parts: (1 the health risk during the remediation process and (2 the health risk in the natural attenuation period after remediation. In the ISIO-THRA framework, the relationship between contaminant concentrations and time is expressed through first-order decay models. The results demonstrate that: (1 stricter environmental standards and health risk would require larger pumping rates for the same remediation duration; (2 higher health risk may happen in the period of the remediation process; (3 for the same environmental standard and acceptable health-risk level, the remediation techniques that take the shortest time would be chosen. ISIO-THRA can help to systematically analyze interaction among contaminant transport, remediation duration, and environmental and health concerns, and further provide useful supportive information for decision makers.

  13. Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

    Williams, Patricia A H

    2013-01-01

    It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

  14. A risk assessment approach to identifying constituents in oilfield produced water for treatment prior to beneficial use.

    Horner, Jennifer E; Castle, James W; Rodgers, John H

    2011-05-01

    A risk assessment approach incorporating exposure pathways and calculated risk quotients was applied to identifying constituents requiring treatment prior to beneficial use of oilfield produced water (OPW). In this study, risk quotients are ratios of constituent concentrations in soil or water to guideline concentrations for no adverse effects to receptors. The risk assessment approach is illustrated by an example of an oilfield water produced from non-marine geologic strata of a rift basin in sub-Saharan Africa. The OPW studied has the following characteristics: 704-1370 mg L(-1) total dissolved solids (TDS), 45-48 mg L(-1) chloride, and 103.8 mg L(-1) oil and grease. Exposure pathways of constituents in OPW used for irrigation include: ingestion of plant tissue, ingestion and direct contact of irrigated soil by livestock, inhalation of aerosols or volatilized constituents, and ingestion of OPW directly by livestock. Applying risk quotient methods for constituents in soil and water, constituents of concern (COCs) identified for irrigation and livestock watering using the OPW studied include: iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), and oil and grease. Approximately 165,000 barrels d(-1) (26,233 m(3) d(-1)) of OPW from the study site are available for use. Identification of COCs and consideration of water quantity allows for development of reliable treatment design criteria to ensure effective and consistent treatment is achieved to meet guideline levels required for irrigation, livestock watering, or other uses. This study illustrates the utility of risk assessment for identifying the COCs in OPW for treatment, the level of treatment required, and viable options for use of the treated water. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  16. A combined QSAR and partial order ranking approach to risk assessment.

    Carlsen, L

    2006-04-01

    QSAR generated data appear as an attractive alternative to experimental data as foreseen in the proposed new chemicals legislation REACH. A preliminary risk assessment for the aquatic environment can be based on few factors, i.e. the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), the vapour pressure (VP) and the potential biodegradability of the compound in combination with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and the actual tonnage in which the substance is produced. Application of partial order ranking, allowing simultaneous inclusion of several parameters leads to a mutual prioritisation of the investigated substances, the prioritisation possibly being further analysed through the concept of linear extensions and average ranks. The ranking uses endpoint values (log Kow and log VP) derived from strictly linear 'noise-deficient' QSAR models as input parameters. Biodegradation estimates were adopted from the BioWin module of the EPI Suite. The population growth impairment of Tetrahymena pyriformis was used as a surrogate for fish lethality.

  17. Approaches to acceptable risk

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  18. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  19. [Muscle and bone health as a risk factor of fall among the elderly. An approach to identify high-risk fallers by risk assessment].

    Kikuchi, Reiko; Kozaki, Koichi; Nakamura, Tetsuro; Toba, Kenji

    2008-06-01

    Fall-induced hip fracture is one of the major causes rendering the elderly to be in a low ADL or bed-ridden status. Fall is not only the cause for fractures, but it lowers elderly peoples'ADL. History of fall, age, decline of motor function, orthostatic hypotension, balance deficit, dementia, drug and environmental factors were raised as possible risk factor for falls. We created a fall predicting score which consist of 21 risk factors and a history of falls. We found that the score is useful to identify high-risk fallers. It would be necessary to identify high-risk fallers early and give an appropriate individual approach.

  20. Mayaro virus infection in amazonia: a multimodel inference approach to risk factor assessment.

    Fernando Abad-Franch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data--particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT and step-wise regression (SWR. Using Mayaro virus (MAYV as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The "minimum adequate" SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (β ± SE on which to base inference. Residence area (β(Village  =  2.93 ± 0.41; β(Upland = -0.56 ± 0.33, β(Riverbanks  =  -2.37 ± 0.55 and bednet use (β = -0.95 ± 0.28 were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (β  =  0.39 ± 0.22 and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (β = 0.19 ± 0.13; domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles

  1. A combined approach to investigate the toxicity of an industrial landfill's leachate: Chemical analyses, risk assessment and in vitro assays

    Baderna, D.; Maggioni, S.; Boriani, E.; Gemma, S.; Molteni, M.; Lombardo, A.; Colombo, A.; Bordonali, S.; Rotella, G.; Lodi, M.; Benfenati, E.

    2011-01-01

    Solid wastes constitute an important and emerging problem. Landfills are still one of the most common ways to manage waste disposal. The risk assessment of pollutants from landfills is becoming a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. Furthermore, there is lack of knowledge for the environmental, ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics of most contaminants contained into landfill leacheates. Understanding leachate composition and creating an integrated strategy for risk assessment are currently needed to correctly face the landfill issues and to make projections on the long-term impacts of a landfill, with particular attention to the estimation of possible adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. In the present study, we propose an integrated strategy to evaluate the toxicity of the leachate using chemical analyses, risk assessment guidelines and in vitro assays using the hepatoma HepG2 cells as a model. The approach was applied on a real case study: an industrial waste landfill in northern Italy for which data on the presence of leachate contaminants are available from the last 11 years. Results from our ecological risk models suggest important toxic effects on freshwater fish and small rodents, mainly due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. Our results from in vitro data show an inhibition of cell proliferation by leachate at low doses and cytotoxic effect at high doses after 48 h of exposure. - Research highlights: → We study the toxicity of leachate from a non-hazardous industrial waste landfill. → We perform chemical analyses, risk assessments and in vitro assays on HepG2 cells. → Risk models suggest toxic effects due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. → In vitro assays show that leachate inhibits cell proliferation at low doses. → Leachate can induce cytotoxic effects on HepG2 cells at high doses.

  2. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  4. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  5. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  6. A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

    Sam Nicol

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessment (EIA is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

  7. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of Health and Safety Approach JSA (Job Safety Analysis) in Plantation Company

    Sugarindra, Muchamad; Ragil Suryoputro, Muhammad; Tiya Novitasari, Adi

    2017-06-01

    Plantation company needed to identify hazard and perform risk assessment as an Identification of Hazard and Risk Assessment Crime and Safety which was approached by using JSA (Job Safety Analysis). The identification was aimed to identify the potential hazards that might be the risk of workplace accidents so that preventive action could be taken to minimize the accidents. The data was collected by direct observation to the workers concerned and the results were recorded on a Job Safety Analysis form. The data were as forklift operator, macerator worker, worker’s creeper, shredder worker, workers’ workshop, mechanical line worker, trolley cleaning workers and workers’ crepe decline. The result showed that shredder worker value was 30 and had the working level with extreme risk with the risk value range was above 20. So to minimize the accidents could provide Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) which were appropriate, information about health and safety, the company should have watched the activities of workers, and rewards for the workers who obey the rules that applied in the plantation.

  8. Approach to study of Cu, Ni and Zn content in soil for ecotoxicological risk assessment

    Boluda, R.; Marimon, L.; Gil, C.; Roca-Pérez, L.

    2009-04-01

    Current Spanish legislation on contaminated soils defines contaminated soil as "that whose characteristics have been negatively altered by the presence of dangerous human-derived chemical components whose concentration is such that it is an unacceptable risk for human health or the environment and has been expressly declared as such by legal ruling". Regarding heavy metals, the Spanish Autonomous Communities will promote measures to obtain generic reference values to declare a soil to be contaminated. In the Valencian Community, these reference values still do not exist. So if the protection of ecosystems is considered a priority to declare a soil to be contaminated and to assess the level of risk, emergency toxicity tests and seed growth in land plants are resorted to, or tests with aquatic organisms or other experiments with leached soils obtained by standard procedures are carried out. We studied the toxic effects of calcareous contaminated soils by Cu, Ni and Zn on marine bacterium Vibrio fisheri (MicrotoxR test assay) (1) and on barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in plate (germination index) (2) and pot (UNE 77301) (3) experiments for the purpose of establishing the Cu, Ni and Zn concentrations in soil which may lead to toxicity in order to observe, therefore, whether there is any likelihood of these pollutants coming into contact with any receptor and if adverse effects exist for living beings and the environment. The results showed significant differences among the three types of tests done but, in all cases, the concentrations needed to reflect toxicity effect on organisms were around 20 -70 (Cu and Ni) to 1000 (Zn) times higher than the levels of the control soils. The sensitivity order of the bio-assay was: (1) < (3) < (2). We would like to thank Spanish government-MICINN for partial funding and support (MICINN, project CGL2006-09776).

  9. Dynamical modeling approach to risk assessment for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in interplanetary space missions.

    Smirnova, Olga A; Cucinotta, Francis A

    2018-02-01

    A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can

  10. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  11. Risk assessment, identification, and notification (RAIN) system : a novel approach for traffic management.

    2009-08-31

    Primary research focused on the design and development of an energy-efficient Risk Notification Message Dissemination Protocol (RNMDP) for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). RNMDP propagates Risk Notification Messages (RNMs) from a location of origi...

  12. Assessing Stability and Dynamics in Flood Risk Governance : An Empirically Illustrated Research Approach

    Hegger, Dries L T; Driessen, Peter P J; Dieperink, Carel; Wiering, Mark; Raadgever, G. T Tom; van Rijswick, Helena F M W

    2014-01-01

    European urban agglomerations face increasing flood risks due to urbanization and the effects of climate change. These risks are addressed at European, national and regional policy levels. A diversification and alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs) can make vulnerable urban

  13. A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

    Luty Adrian JF

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

  14. Methods of risk assessment

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  15. Risk Assessments of Minefields in Humanitarian Mine Action - a Bayesian Approach

    Vistisen, Jan Bastholm

    2006-01-01

    thesis, has concentrated on the development of a risk model quantifying to what extent a minefield poses a risk to a society. The risk model is derived in two steps: First, a general model, which requires detailed information about the mined area in question, is derived. Secondly, by the introduction...... risk model seems to be the lack of actual information about the binomial parameter q. A considerable part of the enclosed thesis focuses therefore on ways to provide information about q through statistical modelling. Depending on the level of historical information available to a hypothetical decision....... The possibility of making updates of the entering probability distributions p(m) and p(q) through incoming accident statistics by the use of Bayes' rule makes the suggested risk model dynamic. Moreover, the application of Bayesian data analysis gives the derived risk model a very flexible structure which allows...

  16. Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

    Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

    2014-04-01

    The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. HSE risks assessment in urban high-rise construction using Fuzzy Approach

    A. Ardeshir

    2015-07-01

    Conclusion: Findings in this research indicated that HSE risks are very critical and they should be controlled before start of the project. Moreover, many of HSE risk are due to lack of appropriate HSE culture in the organization and projects that can be reduced by culture-building practices.

  18. [Methodological aspects of risk assessment of work related stress. Italian experience of R Karasek JCQ application, a multiphase approach].

    Ferrario, M M; Cesana, G

    2009-01-01

    Due to a new legislation, the assessment of work stress has become compulsory in Italy for all the enterprise. Work stress is become a leading health problem in work settings all over Europe. The two major approaches, the expert-based direct observations and the measurements of the perceived job strain, are briefly introduced emphasizing on strengthens and weaknesses. Among the methods to assess perceived job stress, the Karasek's Job Content Questionnaire has been extensively used in Italy, and the available results support its use because reliable and able to pick up major constrictiveness at work. In addition, because it is now possible to have reference levels, comparisons are possible for either public or private enterprises. Acknowledging the complexity of carrying out reliable assessment of work stress, a multiphase approach is emphasised: first an analysis or current data can be used to estimate the levels of turnover, down-sizing, outsourcing, extra hours, shift work, sickness absenteeism, changes of job titles, work accidents and work-related diseases. At a second step, on groups of workers selected because recognised at risk at the first phase and on control groups, the JCQ can be used to assess workers stress perception. Finally, when constrain conditions emerge,further investigations are required, including: intervention of experts in work organisation analysis, clinical psychological examinations of selected workers, to separate between work-related and personal psychological problems and health consequences.

  19. The probabilistic approach in the licensing process and the development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology in Japan

    Togo, Y.; Sato, K.

    1981-01-01

    The probabilistic approach has long seemed to be one of the most comprehensive methods for evaluating the safety of nuclear plants. So far, most of the guidelines and criteria for licensing are based on the deterministic concept. However, there have been a few examples to which the probabilistic approach was directly applied, such as the evaluation of aircraft crashes and turbine missiles. One may find other examples of such applications. However, a much more important role is now to be played by this concept, in implementing the 52 recommendations from the lessons learned from the TMI accident. To develop the probabilistic risk assessment methodology most relevant to Japanese situations, a five-year programme plan has been adopted and is to be conducted by the Japan Atomic Research Institute from fiscal 1980. Various problems have been identified and are to be solved through this programme plan. The current status of developments is described together with activities outside the government programme. (author)

  20. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  1. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. Approaches to the risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens in food: a critical appraisal.

    O'Brien, J; Renwick, A G; Constable, A; Dybing, Erik; Müller, D J G; Schlatter, J; Slob, Wout; Tueting, W; Benthem, Jan van; Williams, G M; Wolfreys, A

    2006-01-01

    The present paper examines the particular difficulties presented by low levels of food-borne DNA-reactive genotoxic carcinogens, some of which may be difficult to eliminate completely from the diet, and proposes a structured approach for the evaluation of such compounds. While the ALARA approach is

  3. Information needs for risk assessment

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. 75 FR 1770 - An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl...

    2010-01-13

    ... qualitative aspects of the risk assessment because of the type of genomic data available for DBP. It is... Assessment (NCEA) within EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). Toxicogenomics is the application of... exploratory methods for analyzing genomic data for application to risk assessment and some preliminary results...

  5. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  6. Using species sensitivity distribution approach to assess the risks of commonly detected agricultural pesticides to Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems.

    Pathiratne, Asoka; Kroon, Frederieke J

    2016-02-01

    To assess the potential impacts of agricultural pesticides on tropical freshwater ecosystems, the present study developed temperature-specific, freshwater species protection concentrations (i.e., ecotoxicity threshold values) for 8 pesticides commonly detected in Australia's tropical freshwaters. Because relevant toxicity data for native tropical freshwater species to assess the ecological risks were mostly absent, scientifically robust toxicity data obtained at ≥20 °C were used for ecologically relevant taxonomic groups representing primary producers and consumers. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were subsequently generated for predicted chronic exposure using Burrlioz 2.0 software with mixed chronic and converted acute data relevant to exposure conditions at ≥20 °C. Ecotoxicity threshold values for tropical freshwater ecosystem protection were generated for ametryn, atrazine, diuron, metolachlor, and imidacloprid (all moderate reliability), as well as simazine, hexazinone, and tebuthiuron (all low reliability). Using these SSD curves, the retrospective risk assessments for recently reported pesticide concentrations highlight that the herbicides ametryn, atrazine, and diuron are of major concern for ecological health in Australia's tropical freshwater ecosystems. The insecticide imidacloprid also appears to pose an emerging threat to the most sensitive species in tropical freshwater ecosystems. The exposed temperature-specific approach may be applied to develop water quality guideline values for other environmental contaminants detected in tropical freshwater ecosystems until reliable and relevant toxicity data are generated using representative native species. © 2015 SETAC.

  7. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1995 revision

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.; Loar, J.M.

    1995-09-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). It is the third such document prepared for this purpose. The first ecorisk strategy document described the ERA process and presented a tiered approach to ERAs appropriate to complex sites. The first revision was necessitated by the considerable progress that has been made by the parties to the Federal Facilities Agreement (FFA) for the ORR in resolving specific issues relating to ERA as a result of a series of data quality objectives (DQOs) meetings. The tiered approach to ERAs as recommended in the first document was implemented, generic conceptual models were developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints was agreed upon. This revision is necessitated by comments from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Region IV and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) which clarified and modified the positions taken during the DQO process. In particular, support for the collection of data that would support ERAs for all OUs on the ORR have been withdrawn. Therefore, the work plan developed to fill the reservation-wide data needs identified in the DQO process has also been withdrawn, and portions that are still relevant have been incorporated into this document. The reader should be aware that this guidance is complex and lengthy because it attempts to cover all the reasonable contingencies that were considered to be potentially important to the FFA parties

  8. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  9. Consideration on the health risk reduction related to attainment of the new particulate matter standards in Poland: A top-down policy risk assessment approach.

    Kobza, Joanna; Pastuszka, Józef S; Gulis, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Policies can influence health of a population in various ways. Numerous epidemiological studies supported by toxicological investigations demonstrate a positive association between ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter and increased adverse cardio-respiratory events, including morbidity and mortality. The aim of this paper was to present the concept of the top-down health policy risk assessment approach model developed to estimate the expected health risk reduction associated with policy aiming at attaining the new particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM10) standards in Poland. The top-down approach guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy to health outcomes. In this case study we tried to estimate the predicted health effects of the policy change over the past 20 years. Since Polish annual standard for PM10 changed from 50 μg/m³ in 1990 to 40 μg/m³ in 2010, we calculated the relative risk associated with decreasing PM10 in diameter to 10 μg/m3 in the annual level of PM10 for 6 adverse health effects. The relative risk slightly decreased for almost all adverse health effects, which means that the relative decrease in the incidence of health effects from the baseline incidence should range from about 0.5-0.6% for heart disease admissions to > 1% for respiratory admissions. The obtained results indicate that implementation of the new ambient air standards could influence improvement of the health status of Polish population. A top-down policy health risk assessment model can be one of the main tools in this process, providing harmonized guidance how to seek evidence-based information, which could serve policy-makers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  10. A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

    Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

    2018-04-03

    The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

  11. GM Risk Assessment

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  12. A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

    Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

    2009-11-01

    A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

  13. An urban flood risk assessment method using the Bayesian Network approach

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra

    and water resources management studies, whereas climate risk studies have not yet fully adapted the BN method. A BN is a graphical model that utilizes causal relationships to describe the overall system where risk occurs. A BN can be further extended into a Bayesian Influence diagram (ID) by including...... for inclusion of multiple hazards in FRAs. Lastly, the inclusion of multiple hazards in FRA may be challenging, among others because concurrent events are rare. However, with climate change, the annual variation of hazards may change, and concurrent events may become more frequent. Large-scale atmospheric...... circulation influences local and regional climate and is considered an important factor when aiming at improving our understanding of local weather conditions and the occurrence of extreme events. Hence, this thesis presents a study that explores the relationship between flood generating hazards and large...

  14. A risk assessment approach to support the launching of new products, services or processes

    Steen, Riana

    2015-01-01

    This is the accepted, refereed and final manuscript to the article published This research paper aims to develop a practical method to highlight certain key risk factors involved in the product development process. A new definition of the term “launch risk” is introduced in this work. The term is defined as the uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of failed launch. The launch could be the further development of existing products or the introduction of new products/services or...

  15. National Risk Assessment in The Netherlands : A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach

    Pruyt, E.; Wijnmalen, D.J.D.

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, National Safety and Security issues receive much attention in many countries. In 2007, the Dutch government approved a National Safety and Security Strategy based on a multi-criteria analysis approach to classify potential threats and hazards. The general methodology of this Dutch National

  16. Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

    Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

    2017-11-06

    The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

  17. Risk behavior score: a practical approach for assessing risk among men who have sex with men in Brazil

    Gustavo Machado Rocha

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available HIV/AIDS epidemic is not well controlled, and multiple sexual behavior factors help explain high rates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM. This article proposes to exam the use of a potential risk behavior score for HIV infection, based on the type and number of sexual partners, and condom use, and their associated factors in a sample of MSM in Brazil. A cross sectional RDS (Respondent Driven Sampling study was performed among 3738 MSM aged 18+ years old from ten Brazilian cities. The risk behavior score was composed by the number of male partners and anal condom use in the last year with steady, casual, and commercial partners. Most participants were 25+ years old (58.1%, non-white (83.1%, and single (84.9%. Final weighted ordinal logistic model showed that age ≤ 25 years old (p = 0.037, homosexual or bisexual identity (p < 0.001, sexual initiation before 15-year-old (p < 0.001, having sex with men only in the last 12 months (p < 0.001, frequent alcohol and illicit drug use (p < 0.001, and use of local sites to meet sexual partners in the last month were independently associated with higher scores of risky behavior. Specific strategies should be developed aimed at the MSM population. Additionally, pre-exposed prophylaxis (Prep should be considered for those at higher score as a strategy for reducing risk for HIV infection in this population. Keywords: Homosexuals, High-risk sex, Unsafe sex, HIV, AIDS

  18. Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

    Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

  19. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  20. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  1. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

    d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-01-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

  2. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  3. An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

    Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

    1987-01-01

    In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources

  6. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA`s) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

  7. Weight-of-evidence approach in assessment of ecotoxicological risks of acid sulphate soils in the Baltic Sea river estuaries

    Wallin, Jaana, E-mail: jaana.wallin@jyu.fi [Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Survontie 9 A, FI-40500 Jyväskylä (Finland); Karjalainen, Anna K. [Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Survontie 9 A, FI-40500 Jyväskylä (Finland); Schultz, Eija [Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Hakuninmaantie 6, FI-00430 Helsinki (Finland); Järvistö, Johanna; Leppänen, Matti; Vuori, Kari-Matti [Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Survontie 9 A, FI-40500 Jyväskylä (Finland)

    2015-03-01

    Acidity and leaching of metals from acid sulphate soils (ASSs) impair the water quality of receiving surface waters. The largest ASS areas in Europe are found in the coasts of the northern Baltic Sea. We used weight-of-evidence (WoE) approach to assess potential risks in 14 estuary sites affected by ASS in the Gulf of Finland, northern Baltic Sea. The assessment was based on exposure and effect profiles utilizing sediment and water metal concentrations and concurrent pH variation, sediment toxicity tests using the luminescent bacterium Vibrio fischeri and the midge Chironomus riparius, and the ecological status of benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Sediment metal concentrations were compared to national sediment quality criteria/guidelines, and water metal concentrations to environmental quality standards (EQSs). Hazard quotients (HQs) were established for maximum aluminium, cadmium and zinc concentrations at low pH based on applicable US EPA toxicity database. Sediment metal concentrations were clearly elevated in most of the studied estuaries. The EQS of cadmium (0.1 μg/l) was exceeded in 3 estuaries out of 14. The pH-minima were below the national threshold value (5.5) between good and satisfactory water quality in 10 estuaries. V. fischeri bioluminescence indicated toxicity of the sediments but toxic response was not observed in the C. riparius emergence test. Benthic invertebrate communities were deteriorated in 6 out of 14 sites based on the benthic invertebrate quality index. The overall ecotoxicological risk was assessed as low in five, moderate in three and high in five of the estuary sites. The risk assessment utilizing the WoE approach indicated that harmful effects of ASSs are likely to occur in the Baltic Sea river estuaries located at the ASS hotspot area. - Highlights: • Acid sulphate soils release high amounts of metals and acidity. • Metals and acidity are transported to estuary sites. • Acid sulphate soils impair the ecological status

  8. An Integrated Approach to Assess Exposure and Health-Risk from Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs in a Fastener Manufacturing Industry

    Hsin-I Hsu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available An integrated approach was developed to assess exposure and health-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs contained in oil mists in a fastener manufacturing industry. One previously developed model and one new model were adopted for predicting oil mist exposure concentrations emitted from metal work fluid (MWF and PAHs contained in MWF by using the fastener production rate (Pr and cumulative fastener production rate (CPr as predictors, respectively. By applying the annual Pr and CPr records to the above two models, long-term workplace PAH exposure concentrations were predicted. In addition, true exposure data was also collected from the field. The predicted and measured concentrations respectively served as the prior and likelihood distributions in the Bayesian decision analysis (BDA, and the resultant posterior distributions were used to determine the long-term exposure and health-risks posed on workers. Results show that long term exposures to PAHs would result in a 3.1%, 96.7%, and 73.4% chance of exceeding the PEL-TWA (0.2 mg/m3, action level (0.1 mg/m3, and acceptable health risk (10−3, respectively. In conclusion, preventive measures should be taken immediately to reduce workers’ PAH exposures.

  9. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach.

    Alajlouni, Abdalmajeed M; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-11-16

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment was performed based on equal potency of all alkenylbenzenes or using a so-called toxic equivalency (TEQ) approach through defining toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for the different alkenylbenzenes. The EDI values resulting from consuming one cup of tea a day were 0.2-10.1 μg/kg bw for the individual alkenylbenzenes, 0.6-13.1 μg/kg bw for the sum of the alkenylbenzenes, and 0.3-10.7 μg safrole equiv/kg bw for the sum of alkenylbenzenes when expressed in safrole equivalents. The margin of exposure (MOE) values obtained were generally <10000, indicating a concern if the teas would be consumed on a daily basis over longer periods of time.

  10. Allergenic risks of mealworm and other insects : An approach to assess the risks of new food proteins in allergic patients

    Hustinx-Broekman, H.C.H.P.

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of cross-reactivity and primary sensitization and allergy by new food proteins: the goal and contents of this thesis. Allergies to new food proteins can result from cross-reactivity in existing sensitized or allergic individuals and thereby thus immediately manifest themselves in

  11. Health disorders related to learning the welding trade: assessment of approaches to risk communication

    Clarice Alves Bonow

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess the identification of health disorders as self-reported by apprentices of welding and to analyze the strength of the relationship between age and time of experience with self-reported health disorders before and after a socio-environmental nursing intervention. METHOD: this quasi-experimental, non-randomized, before-and-after study was conducted with 86 welding apprentices from a private entity. RESULTS: the results show a significant difference for the pre- and post-test means and an increase in the post-test mean score for the cardiovascular, respiratory and cutaneous systems. There was also a negative correlation between the apprentices' ages and the identification of health disorders. CONCLUSION: the socio-environmental nursing intervention enabled obtaining information on health disorders related to welding. In turn, such information enabled the apprentices to assess information and self-report health disorders.

  12. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach

    Alajlouni, Abdul; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J.; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebas; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment

  13. Approach and Strategy for Performing Ecological Risk Assessments for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Field Office Environmental Restoration Program

    Suter, G.W. II

    1992-01-01

    This technical memorandum provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). This work was performed under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.2.3.04.07.02 (Activity Data Sheet 8304) and meets an Environmental Restoration Program milestone for FY 95. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance developed for the ORR and relevant U.S. Environmental Protection Agency documents and guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it could be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

  14. Approaches to assess IgE mediated allergy risks (sensitization and cross-reactivity) from new or modified dietary proteins

    Remington, B.; Broekman, H. C. H.; Blom, W. M.

    2018-01-01

    for new proteins, and especially to identify and characterise the risk of sensitization for IgE mediated allergy from oral exposure. Existing tools and tests are capable of assessing potential crossreactivity. However, there are few possibilities to assess the hazard due to de novo sensitization. The only...... methods available are in vivo models, but many limitations exist to use them for assessing risk. We conclude that there is a need to understand which criteria adequately define allergenicity for risk assessment purposes, and from these criteria develop a more suitable battery of tests to distinguish...

  15. Toxicity testing in the 21 century: defining new risk assessment approaches based on perturbation of intracellular toxicity pathways.

    Sudin Bhattacharya

    Full Text Available The approaches to quantitatively assessing the health risks of chemical exposure have not changed appreciably in the past 50 to 80 years, the focus remaining on high-dose studies that measure adverse outcomes in homogeneous animal populations. This expensive, low-throughput approach relies on conservative extrapolations to relate animal studies to much lower-dose human exposures and is of questionable relevance to predicting risks to humans at their typical low exposures. It makes little use of a mechanistic understanding of the mode of action by which chemicals perturb biological processes in human cells and tissues. An alternative vision, proposed by the U.S. National Research Council (NRC report Toxicity Testing in the 21(st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, called for moving away from traditional high-dose animal studies to an approach based on perturbation of cellular responses using well-designed in vitro assays. Central to this vision are (a "toxicity pathways" (the innate cellular pathways that may be perturbed by chemicals and (b the determination of chemical concentration ranges where those perturbations are likely to be excessive, thereby leading to adverse health effects if present for a prolonged duration in an intact organism. In this paper we briefly review the original NRC report and responses to that report over the past 3 years, and discuss how the change in testing might be achieved in the U.S. and in the European Union (EU. EU initiatives in developing alternatives to animal testing of cosmetic ingredients have run very much in parallel with the NRC report. Moving from current practice to the NRC vision would require using prototype toxicity pathways to develop case studies showing the new vision in action. In this vein, we also discuss how the proposed strategy for toxicity testing might be applied to the toxicity pathways associated with DNA damage and repair.

  16. Ecological risk assessment

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  17. Risk Assessment Overview

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  20. An extensive cocktail approach for rapid risk assessment of in vitro CYP450 direct reversible inhibition by xenobiotic exposure

    Spaggiari, Dany, E-mail: dany.spaggiari@unige.ch [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva, University of Lausanne, Boulevard d' Yvoy 20, 1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Daali, Youssef, E-mail: youssef.daali@hcuge.ch [Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology Service, Geneva University Hospitals, Rue Gabrielle Perret-Gentil, 1211 Genève 14 (Switzerland); Rudaz, Serge, E-mail: serge.rudaz@unige.ch [School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Geneva, University of Lausanne, Boulevard d' Yvoy 20, 1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Swiss Centre for Applied Human Toxicology, University of Geneva, Boulevard d' Yvoy 20, 1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland)

    2016-07-01

    Acute exposure to environmental factors strongly affects the metabolic activity of cytochrome P450 (P450). As a consequence, the risk of interaction could be increased, modifying the clinical outcomes of a medication. Because toxic agents cannot be administered to humans for ethical reasons, in vitro approaches are therefore essential to evaluate their impact on P450 activities. In this work, an extensive cocktail mixture was developed and validated for in vitro P450 inhibition studies using human liver microsomes (HLM). The cocktail comprised eleven P450-specific probe substrates to simultaneously assess the activities of the following isoforms: 1A2, 2A6, 2B6, 2C8, 2C9, 2C19, 2D6, 2E1, 2J2 and subfamily 3A. The high selectivity and sensitivity of the developed UHPLC-MS/MS method were critical for the success of this methodology, whose main advantages are: (i) the use of eleven probe substrates with minimized interactions, (ii) a low HLM concentration, (iii) fast incubation (5 min) and (iv) the use of metabolic ratios as microsomal P450 activities markers. This cocktail approach was successfully validated by comparing the obtained IC{sub 50} values for model inhibitors with those generated with the conventional single probe methods. Accordingly, reliable inhibition values could be generated 10-fold faster using a 10-fold smaller amount of HLM compared to individual assays. This approach was applied to assess the P450 inhibition potential of widespread insecticides, namely, chlorpyrifos, fenitrothion, methylparathion and profenofos. In all cases, P450 2B6 was the most affected with IC{sub 50} values in the nanomolar range. For the first time, mixtures of these four insecticides incubated at low concentrations showed a cumulative inhibitory in vitro effect on P450 2B6. - Highlights: • Ten P450 isoforms activities assessed simultaneously with only one incubation. • P450 activity levels measured using the metabolic ratio approach. • IC{sub 50} values generated 10

  1. An extensive cocktail approach for rapid risk assessment of in vitro CYP450 direct reversible inhibition by xenobiotic exposure

    Spaggiari, Dany; Daali, Youssef; Rudaz, Serge

    2016-01-01

    Acute exposure to environmental factors strongly affects the metabolic activity of cytochrome P450 (P450). As a consequence, the risk of interaction could be increased, modifying the clinical outcomes of a medication. Because toxic agents cannot be administered to humans for ethical reasons, in vitro approaches are therefore essential to evaluate their impact on P450 activities. In this work, an extensive cocktail mixture was developed and validated for in vitro P450 inhibition studies using human liver microsomes (HLM). The cocktail comprised eleven P450-specific probe substrates to simultaneously assess the activities of the following isoforms: 1A2, 2A6, 2B6, 2C8, 2C9, 2C19, 2D6, 2E1, 2J2 and subfamily 3A. The high selectivity and sensitivity of the developed UHPLC-MS/MS method were critical for the success of this methodology, whose main advantages are: (i) the use of eleven probe substrates with minimized interactions, (ii) a low HLM concentration, (iii) fast incubation (5 min) and (iv) the use of metabolic ratios as microsomal P450 activities markers. This cocktail approach was successfully validated by comparing the obtained IC 50 values for model inhibitors with those generated with the conventional single probe methods. Accordingly, reliable inhibition values could be generated 10-fold faster using a 10-fold smaller amount of HLM compared to individual assays. This approach was applied to assess the P450 inhibition potential of widespread insecticides, namely, chlorpyrifos, fenitrothion, methylparathion and profenofos. In all cases, P450 2B6 was the most affected with IC 50 values in the nanomolar range. For the first time, mixtures of these four insecticides incubated at low concentrations showed a cumulative inhibitory in vitro effect on P450 2B6. - Highlights: • Ten P450 isoforms activities assessed simultaneously with only one incubation. • P450 activity levels measured using the metabolic ratio approach. • IC 50 values generated 10-fold faster

  2. Operational risk assessment.

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  3. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  4. Probabilistic approach for assessing infants' health risks due to ingestion of nanoscale silver released from consumer products.

    Pang, Chengfang; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Pizzol, Lisa; Tsang, Michael P; Sayre, Phil; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-02-01

    Silver nanoparticles (n-Ag) are widely used in consumer products and many medical applications because of their unique antibacterial properties. Their use is raising concern about potential human exposures and health effects. Therefore, it is informative to assess the potential human health risks of n-Ag in order to ensure that nanotechnology-based consumer products are deployed in a safe and sustainable way. Even though toxicity studies clearly show the potential hazard of n-Ag, there have been few attempts to integrate hazard and exposure assessments to evaluate risks. The underlying reason for this is the difficulty in characterizing exposure and the lack of toxicity studies essential for human health risk assessment (HHRA). Such data gaps introduce significant uncertainty into the risk assessment process. This study uses probabilistic methods to assess the relative uncertainty and potential risks of n-Ag exposure to infants. In this paper, we estimate the risks for infants potentially exposed to n-Ag through drinking juice or milk from sippy cups or licking baby blankets containing n-Ag. We explicitly evaluate uncertainty and variability contained in available dose-response and exposure data in order to make the risk characterization process transparent. Our results showed that individual margin of exposures for oral exposure to sippy cups and baby blankets containing n-Ag exhibited minimal risk. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  6. Chemical Risk Assessment

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  7. A multi-region approach to assessing fiscal and farm level consequences of government support for farm risk management

    Joseph Cooper

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2014 U.S. Farm Act has new programs for providing producers with commodity support payments covering “shallow losses” in revenue. We develop an approach to examine the sensitivity of the farmer’s downside risk protection to marginal changes in the deductible in shallow loss program scenarios. The copula approach we use simultaneously considers price and yield correlation across all U.S. counties producing several major field crops. We find that average payments under the shallow loss program scenarios are elastic with respect to the program’s payment coverage rate. To empirically assess where shallow loss is likely to most benefit producers, we map at the county level the ratios of expected shallow loss payments to crop insurance premiums for corn, soybeans, cotton, and winter wheat. As tail dependencies among individual crop yield densities may vary spatially, we propose a method for grouping counties in a t-copula that allows for heterogeneity in tail dependencies.

  8. Risk assessment and regulation

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  9. Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

    2017-10-01

    Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

  10. Risk assessment in international operations

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  11. Multidsciplinary Approaches to Coastal Adaptation - Aplying Machine Learning Techniques to assess coastal risk in Latin America and The Caribbean

    Calil, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global population, currently at 7.3 billion, is increasing by nearly 230,000 people every day. As the world's population grows to an estimated 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low elevation areas, exposed to coastal hazards, is continuing to increase. In 2013, 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, with 37 events displacing at least 100,000 people each. Losses from natural disasters and disaster risk are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards and the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system, and its exposure to such hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Moreover, coastal risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including ill-advised urban development, income inequality, and poverty level. Our results demonstrate that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), more than half a million people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems), and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. In order to identify the population at greatest risk to coastal hazards in LAC, and in response to a growing demand for multidisciplinary coastal adaptation approaches, this study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (K-Means and Self Organizing Maps), and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks on a comparative scale. Data for more than 13,000 coastal locations in LAC were collected and allocated into three categories: (1) Coastal Hazards (including storm surge, wave energy and El Niño); (2) Geographic Exposure (including population, agriculture, and ecosystems); and (3) Vulnerability (including income inequality, infant mortality rate and malnutrition). This study identified hotspots of coastal vulnerability, the key drivers of coastal risk at each geographic location. Our results provide important

  12. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Field Office Environmental Restoration Program

    Suter, G.W. II; Redfearn, A.; White, R.K.; Shaw, R.A.

    1992-07-01

    This document is intended to supplement exiting US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance for ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites by providing guidance that is more specific and more tailored to US Department of Energy sites than the guidance available from the EPA. However, it is a conceptual strategy document and does not include specific guidance on data, assumptions, and models. That detailed guidance is under development and will be presented in subsequent documents. Ecological risk assessments are equal to human health risk assessments in regulatory importance and can use many of the same data and some of the same estimation methods. However, they also have peculiar data needs and methods. Ecological risk assessments begin with an initial scoping phase, termed hazard definition, that characterizes the sources, the potentially environment, and the assessment endpoints. In the subsequent measurement and estimation phase, in which data are obtained concerning source of the endpoint biota to the contaminants and the effects of those exposures, and assumptions and models are used to relate the data to the desired exposure and effects parameters. Finally, in an integration phase, termed risk characterization, the various exposure and effects estimates are combined to infer the existence, cause, magnitude, and extent of effects of contaminants on the ecological endpoints. This phase is much more complicated for ecological risk assessments than for human health assessments because more types of data are available. Ecological risk assessments estimate effects using laboratory toxicity test results, like human health assessments, but also use results of ambient toxicity tests and biological surveys

  13. Ecological risk assessment of mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors: Methodology to implement an msPAF approach

    Beaumelle, Léa; Della Vedova, Claire; Beaugelin-Seiller, Karine; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline; Gilbin, Rodolphe

    2017-01-01

    A main challenge in ecological risk assessment is to account for the impact of multiple stressors. Nuclear facilities can release both radiological and chemical stressors in the environment. This study is the first to apply species sensitivity distribution (SSD) combined with mixture models (concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA)) to derive an integrated proxy of the ecological impact of combined radiological and chemical stressors: msPAF (multisubstance potentially affected fraction of species). The approach was tested on the routine liquid effluents from nuclear power plants that contain both radioactive and stable chemicals. The SSD of ionising radiation was significantly flatter than the SSD of 8 stable chemicals (namely Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, B, chlorides and sulphates). This difference in shape had strong implications for the selection of the appropriate mixture model: contrarily to the general expectations the IA model gave more conservative (higher msPAF) results than the CA model. The msPAF approach was further used to rank the relative potential impact of radiological versus chemical stressors. - Highlights: • msPAF methodology was applied on mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors. • A consistent set of chronic SSDs was collected for ionising radiation and 8 stable chemicals. • The SSD of ionising radiation had lower steepness than the SSD of stable chemicals. • This resulted in higher msPAF values based on the IA than on the CA mixture model. - The msPAF approach combining SSD and mixture models was used for the first time on mixtures of radiological and chemical stressors.

  14. Patient caries risk assessment

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  15. Common approach of risks analysis

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  16. Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

    Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

    2018-04-25

    Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  17. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  18. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  1. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  4. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  6. Toward a conceptual approach for assessing risks from chemical mixtures and other stressors to coastal ecosystem services

    Syberg, Kristian; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary Thomas

    2017-01-01

    in Costa Rica) are provided; one focuses on chemicals that affect human food supply and the other addresses pesticide runoff and trade-offs among ES. The 2 cases are used to highlight challenges of such risk assessments, including use of standardized versus ES-relevant test species, data completeness......, translate impacts into ES units; step F, assess cumulative risk in ES units; step G, rank stressors based on their contribution to adverse effects on ES; and step H, implement regulation and management as appropriate and necessary. Two illustrative case studies (Swedish coastal waters and a coastal lagoon......, and trade-offs among ES. Lessons learned from the 2 case studies are discussed in relation to environmental risk assessment and management of chemical mixtures....

  7. OSHA's approach to risk assessment for setting a revised occupational exposure standard for 1,3-butadiene.

    Grossman, E A; Martonik, J

    1990-01-01

    In its 1980 benzene decision [Industrial Union Department, ALF-CIO v. American Petroleum Institute, 448 U.S. 607 (1980)], the Supreme Court ruled that "before he can promulgate any permanent health or safety standard, the Secretary [of Labor] is required to make a threshold finding that a place of employment is unsafe--in the sense that significant risks are present and can be lessened by a change in practices" (448 U.S. at 642). The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has interpreted this to mean that whenever possible, it must quantify the risk associated with occupational exposure to a toxic substance at the current permissible exposure limit (PEL). If OSHA determines that there is significant risk to workers' health at its current standard, then it must quantify the risk associated with a variety of alternative standards to determine at what level, if any, occupational exposure to a substance no longer poses a significant risk. For rulemaking on occupational exposure to 1,3-butadiene, there are two studies that are suitable for quantitative risk assessment. One is a mouse inhalation bioassay conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP), and the other is a rat inhalation bioassay conducted by Hazelton Laboratories Europe. Of the four risk assessments that have been submitted to OSHA, all four have used the mouse and/or rat data with a variety of models to quantify the risk associated with occupational exposure to 1,3-butadiene. In addition, OSHA has performed its own risk assessment using the female mouse and female rat data and the one-hit and multistage models.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:2401254

  8. Assessing systematic risk in the S&P500 index between 2000 and 2011: A Bayesian nonparametric approach

    Rodríguez, Abel; Wang, Ziwei; Kottas, Athanasios

    2017-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model to assess the effect of systematic risks on multiple financial markets, and apply it to understand the behavior of the S&P500 sector indexes between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2011. More than prediction, our main goal is to understand the evolution of systematic and idiosyncratic risks in the U.S. economy over this particular time period, leading to novel sector-specific risk indexes. To accomplish this goal, we model the appearance of extreme l...

  9. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  10. Syncope: Assessment of risk and an approach to evaluation in the emergency department and urgent care clinic

    Baris Akdemir

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Syncope is among the most frequent forms of transient loss of consciousness (TLOC, and is characterized by a relatively brief and self-limited loss of consciousness that by definition is triggered by transient cerebral hypoperfusion. Most often, syncope is caused by a temporary drop of systemic arterial pressure below that required to maintain cerebral function, but brief enough not to cause permanent structural brain injury. Currently, approximately one-third of syncope/collapse patients seen in the emergency department (ED or urgent care clinic are admitted to hospital for evaluation. The primary objective of developing syncope/TLOC risk stratification schemes is to provide guidance regarding the immediate prognostic risk of syncope patients presenting to the ED or clinic; thereafter, based on that risk assessment physicians may be better equipped to determine which patients can be safely evaluated as outpatients, and which require hospital care. In general, the need for hospitalization is determined by several key issues: i the patient's immediate (usually considered 1 week to 1 month mortality risk and risk for physical injury (e.g., falls risk, ii the patient's ability to care for him/herself, and iii whether certain treatments inherently require in-hospital initiation (e.g., pacemaker implantation. However, at present no single risk assessment protocol appears to be satisfactory for universal application, and development of a consensus recommendation is an essential next step.

  11. Probabilistic and possibilistic approach for assessment of radiological risk due to organically bound and tissue free water tritium

    Dahiya, Sudhir; Hegde, A.G.; Joshi, M.L.; Verma, P.C.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    This study illustrates use of two approaches namely probabilistic using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and possibilistic using fuzzy α-cut (FAC) to estimate the radiological cancer risk to the population from ingestion of organically bound tritium (OBT) and tissue free water tritium (TFWT) from fish consumption from the Rana Pratap Sagar Lake (RPSL), Kota. Using FAC technique, radiological cancer risk rate (year -1 ) at A αl.0 level were 1.15E-08 and 1.50E-09 for OBT and TFWT respectively from fish ingestion pathway. The radiological cancer risk rate (year -1 ) using MCS approach at 50th percentile (median) level is 1.14E-08 and 1.49E-09 for OBT and HTO respectively from ingestion of fresh water fish. (author)

  12. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  13. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I. A knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials

    Sørensen, P.S.; Thomsen, M.; Assmuth, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environ...... and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management.......This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human...... and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again...

  14. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    Bouri, Elie

    2015-01-01

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  15. Beyond human error taxonomies in assessment of risk in sociotechnical systems: a new paradigm with the EAST 'broken-links' approach.

    Stanton, Neville A; Harvey, Catherine

    2017-02-01

    Risk assessments in Sociotechnical Systems (STS) tend to be based on error taxonomies, yet the term 'human error' does not sit easily with STS theories and concepts. A new break-link approach was proposed as an alternative risk assessment paradigm to reveal the effect of information communication failures between agents and tasks on the entire STS. A case study of the training of a Royal Navy crew detecting a low flying Hawk (simulating a sea-skimming missile) is presented using EAST to model the Hawk-Frigate STS in terms of social, information and task networks. By breaking 19 social links and 12 task links, 137 potential risks were identified. Discoveries included revealing the effect of risk moving around the system; reducing the risks to the Hawk increased the risks to the Frigate. Future research should examine the effects of compounded information communication failures on STS performance. Practitioner Summary: The paper presents a step-by-step walk-through of EAST to show how it can be used for risk assessment in sociotechnical systems. The 'broken-links' method takes a systemic, rather than taxonomic, approach to identify information communication failures in social and task networks.

  16. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  17. Risk Assessment Integrated QbD Approach for Development of Optimized Bicontinuous Mucoadhesive Limicubes for Oral Delivery of Rosuvastatin.

    Javed, Md Noushad; Kohli, Kanchan; Amin, Saima

    2018-04-01

    Statins are widely prescribed for hyperlipidemia, cancer, and Alzheimer's disease but are facing some inherent challenges such as low solubility and drug loading, higher hepatic metabolism, as well as instability at gastric pH. So, relatively higher circulating dose, required for exerting the therapeutic benefits, leads to dose-mediated severe toxicity. Furthermore, due to low biocompatibility, high toxicity, and other regulatory caveats such as product conformity, reproducibility, and stability of conventional formulations as well as preferentially higher bioabsorption of lipids in their favorable cuboidal geometry, enhancement in in vivo biopharmaceutical performance of Rosuvastatin could be well manifested in Quality by Design (QbD) integrated cuboidal-shaped mucoadhesive microcrystalline delivery systems (Limicubes). Here, quality-target-product-profile (QTPPs), critical quality attributes (CQAs), Ishikawa fishbone diagram, and integration of risk management through risk assessment matrix for failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) followed by processing of Plackett-Burman design matrix using different statistical test for the first time established an approach to substantiate the claims that controlling levels of only these three screened out independent process variables, i.e., Monoolein (B = 800-1100 μL), Poloxamer (C = 150-200 mg), and stirring speed (F = 700-1000 rpm) were statistically significant to modulate and improve the biopharmaceutical performance affecting key attributes, viz., average particle size (Y 1  = 1.40-2.70 μ), entrapment efficiency (Y 2  = 62.60-88.80%), and drug loading (Y 3  = 0.817-1.15%), in QbD-enabled process. The optimal performance of developed Limicubes exhibited an average particle size of 1.8 ± 0.2 μ, entrapment efficiency 80.32 ± 2.88%, and drug loading 0.93 ± 0.08% at the level of 1100 μL (+ 1), 200 mg (+ 1), and 700 rpm (- 1) for Monoolein, Poloxamer, and stirring

  18. Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS and dam break modelling

    Arpit Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A great number of glacial lakes have appeared in many mountain regions across the world during the last half-century due to receding of glaciers and global warming. In the present study, glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF risk assessment has been carried out in the Teesta river basin located in the Sikkim state of India. First, the study focuses on accurate mapping of the glaciers and glacial lakes using multispectral satellite images of Landsat and Indian Remote Sensing satellites. For glacier mapping, normalized difference snow index (NDSI image and slope map of the area have been utilized. NDSI approach can identify glaciers covered with clean snow but debris-covered glaciers cannot be mapped using NDSI method alone. For the present study, slope map has been utilized along with the NDSI approach to delineate glaciers manually. Glacial lakes have been mapped by supervised maximum likelihood classification and normalized difference water index followed by manual editing afterwards using Google Earth images. Second, the first proper inventory of glacial lakes for Teesta basin has been compiled containing information of 143 glacial lakes. Third, analysis of these lakes has been carried out for identification of potentially dangerous lakes. Vulnerable lakes have been identified on the basis of parameters like surface area, position with respect to parent glacier, growth since 2009, slope, distance from the outlet of the basin, presence of supraglacial lakes, presence of other lakes in downstream, condition of moraine, condition of the terrain around them, etc. From these criterions, in total, 18 lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Out of these 18 lakes, further analysis has been carried out for the identification of the most vulnerable lake. Lake 140 comes out to be the most vulnerable for a GLOF event. Lastly, for this potentially dangerous lake, different dam break parameters have been generated using satellite data

  19. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  20. A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

    Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

    2008-07-01

    A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

  1. Assessment of fracture risk

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  2. Animal populations and environmental risks. Approaches for assessment and monitoring; Popolazioni animali e rischi ambientali. Approcci per la valutazione ed il monitoraggio

    Di Girolamo, Irene [Istituto Superiore di Sanita` , Rome (Italy). Lab. di Igiene Ambientale; Mantovani, Alberto [Istituto Superiore di Sanita` , Rome (Italy). Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata ed Ecotossicologia

    1998-12-31

    The main contributions of the `4th Course Veterinary medicine and environmental contamination` held at the Istituto Superiore di Sanita` on September 18-22 1995 are presented. They are organized into three sections: a) general concepts (principles of ecology, toxicological risk assessment, risk communication and environmental regulations relevant to the activities of veterinary services); b) methodological approaches (indicators of environmental quality which can be used by the public health services; use of invertebrates and of domestic, synanthropic and wild animals to assess environmental from animal epidemics; radioactive contamination); c) field experiences (pollutants in honey; contamination from hydrocarbons in anthropic and coastal environments; problems of health education).

  3. Animal populations and environmental risks. Approaches for assessment and monitoring; Popolazioni animali e rischi ambientali. Approcci per la valutazione ed il monitoraggio

    Di Girolamo, Irene [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Igiene Ambientale; Mantovani, Alberto [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Tossicologia Comparata ed Ecotossicologia

    1997-12-31

    The main contributions of the `4th Course Veterinary medicine and environmental contamination` held at the Istituto Superiore di Sanita` on September 18-22 1995 are presented. They are organized into three sections: a) general concepts (principles of ecology, toxicological risk assessment, risk communication and environmental regulations relevant to the activities of veterinary services); b) methodological approaches (indicators of environmental quality which can be used by the public health services; use of invertebrates and of domestic, synanthropic and wild animals to assess environmental from animal epidemics; radioactive contamination); c) field experiences (pollutants in honey; contamination from hydrocarbons in anthropic and coastal environments; problems of health education).

  4. Risk-based probabilistic approach to assess the impact of false mussel invasions on farmed hard clams.

    Liao, Chung-Min; Ju, Yun-Ru; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a risk-based predictive model to assess the impact of false mussel Mytilopsis sallei invasions on hard clam Meretrix lusoria farms in the southwestern region of Taiwan. The actual spread of invasive false mussel was predicted by using analytical models based on advection-diffusion and gravity models. The proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation by false mussel were used to characterize risk estimates. A mortality model was parameterized to assess hard clam mortality risk characterized by false mussel density and infestation intensity. The published data were reanalyzed to parameterize a predictive threshold model described by a cumulative Weibull distribution function that can be used to estimate the exceeding thresholds of proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation. Results indicated that the infestation thresholds were 2-17 ind clam(-1) for adult hard clams, whereas 4 ind clam(-1) for nursery hard clams. The average colonization thresholds were estimated to be 81-89% for cultivated and nursery hard clam farms, respectively. Our results indicated that false mussel density and infestation, which caused 50% hard clam mortality, were estimated to be 2,812 ind m(-2) and 31 ind clam(-1), respectively. This study further indicated that hard clam farms that are close to the coastal area have at least 50% probability for 43% mortality caused by infestation. This study highlighted that a probabilistic risk-based framework characterized by probability distributions and risk curves is an effective representation of scientific assessments for farmed hard clam in response to the nonnative false mussel invasion.

  5. A Margin-of-Exposure Approach to Assessment of Noncancer Risks of Dioxins Based on Human Exposure and Response Data

    Aylward, Lesa L.; Goodman, Julie E.; Charnley, Gail; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

    2008-01-01

    Background Risk assessment of human environmental exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/PCDFs) and other dioxin-like compounds is complicated by several factors, including limitations in measuring intakes because of the low concentrations of these compounds in foods and the environment and interspecies differences in pharmacokinetics and responses. Objectives We examined the feasibility of relying directly on human studies of exposure and potential responses to...

  6. Development of a Standardized Approach for Assessing Potential Risks to Amphibians Exposed to Sediment and Hydric Soils

    2004-05-01

    different foods in amphibian tests. Possible foods considered for this study included boiled spinach, boiled lettuce , fish flakes, TetraMin...other foods such as boiled spinach or lettuce . • Sediment tests in flow-through chambers are preferable over static-renewal systems because of... hybridization may be possible. Amphibian Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance Manual Q:\\mw97\\Projects\\9070045\\419\\Appendix C\\appC-1

  7. Credit Risk and Financial Performance Assessment of Illinois Farmers: A Comparison of Approaches with Farm Accounting Data

    Zhang, Tianwei; Ellinger, Paul N.

    2006-01-01

    Pro forma financial performance evaluation of agricultural producers is an important issue for lenders, internal management and policy makers. Lenders strive to improve their credit risk management. Internal management is interested in understanding the financial impacts of alternative strategic decisions. And policy makers often assess the magnitude and distributional effects of alternative policies on the future financial performance of farm business. Data limitations are a major impediment...

  8. Risk assessment and the environment

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  9. Risk assessment and the environment

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  10. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. A novel approach to assess the spontaneous gastrointestinal bleeding risk of antithrombotic agents using Apc(min/+) mice.

    Wei, Huijun; Shang, Jin; Keohane, CarolAnn; Wang, Min; Li, Qiu; Ni, Weihua; O'Neill, Kim; Chintala, Madhu

    2014-06-01

    Assessment of the bleeding risk of antithrombotic agents is usually performed in healthy animals with some form of vascular injury to peripheral organs to induce bleeding. However, bleeding observed in patients with currently marketed antithrombotic drugs is typically spontaneous in nature such as intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, which happens most frequently on top of preexisting pathologies such as GI ulcerations and polyps. Apc(min/+) mice are reported to develop multiple adenomas through the entire intestinal tract and display progressive anaemia.In this study, we evaluated the potential utility of Apc(min/+) mice as a model for assessing spontaneous GI bleeding with antithrombotic agents. Apc(min/+) mice exhibited progressive blood loss starting at the age of nine weeks. Despite the increase in bleeding, Apc(min/+) mice were in a hypercoagulable state and displayed an age-dependent increase in thrombin generation and circulating fibrinogen as well as a significant decrease in clotting times. We evaluated the effect of warfarin, dabigatran etexilate, apixaban and clopidogrel in this model by administering them in diet or in the drinking water to mice for 1-4 weeks. All of these marketed drugs significantly increased GI bleeding in Apc(min/+) mice, but not in wild-type mice. Although different exposure profiles of these antithrombotic agents make it challenging to compare the bleeding risk of compounds, our results indicate that the Apc(min/+) mouse may be a sensitive preclinical model for assessing the spontaneous GI bleeding risk of novel antithrombotic agents.

  12. Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

    Anna Scolobig

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of

  13. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    Forbes, Valery E.; Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, T. C. M.

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process...... followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching...... and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have...

  14. Approach to reliability assessment

    Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

  15. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    . The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

  16. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  17. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  18. Risk approaches in setting radiation standards

    Whipple, C.

    1984-01-01

    This paper discusses efforts to increase the similarity of risk regulation approaches for radiation and chemical carcinogens. The risk assessment process in both cases involves the same controversy over the extrapolation from high to low doses and dose rates, and in both cases the boundaries between science and policy in risk assessment are indistinct. Three basic considerations are presented to approach policy questions: the economic efficiency of the regulatory approach, the degree of residual risk, and the technical opportunities for risk control. It is the author's opinion that if an agency can show that its standard-setting policies are consistent with those which have achieved political and judicial acceptance in other contexts, the greater the predictability of the regulatory process and the stability of this process

  19. Dietary exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in metropolitan population from China: a risk assessment based on probabilistic approach.

    He, Dongliang; Ye, Xiaolei; Xiao, Yonghua; Zhao, Nana; Long, Jia; Zhang, Piwei; Fan, Ying; Ding, Shibin; Jin, Xin; Tian, Chong; Xu, Shunqing; Ying, Chenjiang

    2015-11-01

    The intake of contaminated foods is an important exposure pathway for endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). However, data on the occurrence of EDCs in foodstuffs are sporadic and the resultant risk of co-exposure is rarely concerned. In this study, 450 food samples representing 7 food categories (mainly raw and fresh food), collected from three geographic cities in China, were analyzed for eight EDCs using high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). Besides estrone (E1), other EDCs including diethylstilbestrol (DES), nonylphenol (NP), bisphenol A (BPA), octylphenol (OP), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), and estriol (E3) were ubiquitous in food. Dose-dependent relationships were found between NP and EE2 (r=0.196, pRisk Assessment (MCRA) system. The 50th and 95th percentile exposure of any EDCs isomer were far below the tolerable daily intake (TDI) value identically. However, the sum of 17β-estradiol equivalents (∑EEQs) exposure in population was considerably larger than the value of exposure to E2, which implied the underlying resultant risk of multiple EDCs in food should be concern. In conclusion, co-exposure via food consumption should be considered rather than individual EDCs during health risk evaluation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Integral risk assessment

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  1. Identification of multiple sclerosis patients at highest risk of cognitive impairment using an integrated brain magnetic resonance imaging assessment approach.

    Uher, T; Vaneckova, M; Sormani, M P; Krasensky, J; Sobisek, L; Dusankova, J Blahova; Seidl, Z; Havrdova, E; Kalincik, T; Benedict, R H B; Horakova, D

    2017-02-01

    While impaired cognitive performance is common in multiple sclerosis (MS), it has been largely underdiagnosed. Here a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening algorithm is proposed to identify patients at highest risk of cognitive impairment. The objective was to examine whether assessment of lesion burden together with whole brain atrophy on MRI improves our ability to identify cognitively impaired MS patients. Of the 1253 patients enrolled in the study, 1052 patients with all cognitive, volumetric MRI and clinical data available were included in the analysis. Brain MRI and neuropsychological assessment with the Brief International Cognitive Assessment for Multiple Sclerosis were performed. Multivariable logistic regression and individual prediction analysis were used to investigate the associations between MRI markers and cognitive impairment. The results of the primary analysis were validated at two subsequent time points (months 12 and 24). The prevalence of cognitive impairment was greater in patients with low brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) (3.5 ml) than in patients with high BPF (>0.85) and low T2-LV (patients predicted cognitive impairment with 83% specificity, 82% negative predictive value, 51% sensitivity and 75% overall accuracy. The risk of confirmed cognitive decline over the follow-up was greater in patients with high T2-LV (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.8) and low BPF (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4-4.7). The integrated MRI assessment of lesion burden and brain atrophy may improve the stratification of MS patients who may benefit from cognitive assessment. © 2016 EAN.

  2. A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

    2017-08-01

    The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

  3. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  4. Control of human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica in minced meat: Comparative analysis of different interventions using a risk assessment approach

    Van Damme, I.; De Zutter, L.; Jacxsens, L.

    2017-01-01

    . enterocolitica in minced meat produced in industrial meat processing plants. The model described the production of minced pork starting from the contamination of pig carcasses with pathogenic Y. enterocolitica just before chilling. The endpoints of the assessment were (i) the proportion of 0.5 kg minced meat packages...... contamination and different decontamination procedures of carcasses have an important effect on the proportion of highly contaminated minced meat packages at the end of storage. The addition of pork cheeks and minimal quantities of tonsillar tissue into minced meat also had a large effect on the endpoint......This study aimed to evaluate the effect of different processing scenarios along the farm-to-fork chain on the contamination of minced pork with human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica. A modular process risk model (MPRM) was used to perform the assessment of the concentrations of pathogenic Y...

  5. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  6. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Determination of acrylamide levels in potato crisps and other snacks and exposure risk assessment through a Margin of Exposure approach.

    Esposito, Francesco; Nardone, Antonio; Fasano, Evelina; Triassi, Maria; Cirillo, Teresa

    2017-10-01

    Potato crisps, corn-based extruded snacks and other savoury snacks are very popular products especially among younger generations. These products could be a potential source of acrylamide (AA), a toxic compound which could develop during frying and baking processes. The purpose of this study was the assessment of the dietary intake to AA across six groups of consumers divided according to age through the consumption of potato crisps and other snacks, in order to eventually evaluate the margin of exposure (MOE) related to neurotoxic and carcinogenic critical endpoints. Different brands of potato crisps and other popular snacks were analyzed through a matrix solid-phase dispersion method followed by a bromination step and GC-MS quantification. The concentration of detected AA ranged from 21 to 3444 ng g - 1 and the highest level occurred in potato crisps samples which showed a median value of 968 ng g - 1 . The risk characterization through MOE assessment revealed that five out of six consumers groups showed higher exposure values associated with an augmented carcinogenic risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Hazard waste risk assessment

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  9. IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk.

    MacGregor, James T; Frötschl, Roland; White, Paul A; Crump, Kenny S; Eastmond, David A; Fukushima, Shoji; Guérard, Melanie; Hayashi, Makoto; Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Johnson, George E; Kasamatsu, Toshio; Levy, Dan D; Morita, Takeshi; Müller, Lutz; Schoeny, Rita; Schuler, Maik J; Thybaud, Véronique

    2015-05-01

    This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose-response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clastogenic damage for agents thought to act via a genotoxic mechanism, but that the correlation is limited due to an inadequate number of cases in which mutation and cancer can be compared at a sufficient number of doses in the same target tissues of the same species and strain exposed under directly comparable routes and experimental protocols. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment handbook

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  11. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  12. Source Apportionment and Risk Assessment of Emerging Contaminants: An Approach of Pharmaco-Signature in Water Systems

    Jiang, Jheng Jie; Lee, Chon Lin; Fang, Meng Der; Boyd, Kenneth G.; Gibb, Stuart W.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology based on multivariate data analysis for characterizing potential source contributions of emerging contaminants (ECs) detected in 26 river water samples across multi-scape regions during dry and wet seasons. Based on this methodology, we unveil an approach toward potential source contributions of ECs, a concept we refer to as the “Pharmaco-signature.” Exploratory analysis of data points has been carried out by unsupervised pattern recognition (hierarchical cluster analysis, HCA) and receptor model (principal component analysis-multiple linear regression, PCA-MLR) in an attempt to demonstrate significant source contributions of ECs in different land-use zone. Robust cluster solutions grouped the database according to different EC profiles. PCA-MLR identified that 58.9% of the mean summed ECs were contributed by domestic impact, 9.7% by antibiotics application, and 31.4% by drug abuse. Diclofenac, ibuprofen, codeine, ampicillin, tetracycline, and erythromycin-H2O have significant pollution risk quotients (RQ>1), indicating potentially high risk to aquatic organisms in Taiwan. PMID:25874375

  13. Multi-hazard risk assessment of coastal vulnerability from tropical cyclones - A GIS based approach for the Odisha coast.

    Sahoo, Bishnupriya; Bhaskaran, Prasad K

    2018-01-15

    The coastal region bordering the East coast of India is a thickly populated belt exposed to high risk and vulnerability from natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone frequencies that develop over the Bay of Bengal (average of 5-6 per year) region are much higher as compared to the Arabian Sea thereby posing a high risk factor associated with storm surge, inland inundation, wind gust, intense rainfall, etc. The Odisha State in the East coast of India experiences the highest number of cyclone strikes as compared to West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. To express the destructive potential resulting from tropical cyclones the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is a widely used metric globally. A recent study indicates that PDI for cyclones in the present decade have increased about six times as compared to the past. Hence there is a need to precisely ascertain the coastal vulnerability and risk factors associated with high intense cyclones expected in a changing climate. As such there are no comprehensive studies attempted so far on the determination of Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for Odisha coast that is highly prone to cyclone strikes. With this motivation, the present study makes an attempt to investigate the physical, environmental, social, and economic impacts on coastal vulnerability associated with tropical cyclones for the Odisha coast. The study also investigates the futuristic projection of coastal vulnerability over this region expected in a changing climate scenario. Eight fair weather parameters along with storm surge height and onshore inundation were used to estimate the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI). Thereafter, the PVI along with social, economic, and environmental vulnerability was used to determine the overall CVI using the GIS based approach. The authors believe that the comprehensive nature of this study is expected to benefit coastal zone management authorities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  15. Reconnecting Stochastic Methods With Hydrogeological Applications: A Utilitarian Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment Approach for the Design of Optimal Monitoring Networks

    Bode, Felix; Ferré, Ty; Zigelli, Niklas; Emmert, Martin; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2018-03-01

    Collaboration between academics and practitioners promotes knowledge transfer between research and industry, with both sides benefiting greatly. However, academic approaches are often not feasible given real-world limits on time, cost and data availability, especially for risk and uncertainty analyses. Although the need for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment are clear, there are few published studies examining how scientific methods can be used in practice. In this work, we introduce possible strategies for transferring and communicating academic approaches to real-world applications, countering the current disconnect between increasingly sophisticated academic methods and methods that work and are accepted in practice. We analyze a collaboration between academics and water suppliers in Germany who wanted to design optimal groundwater monitoring networks for drinking-water well catchments. Our key conclusions are: to prefer multiobjective over single-objective optimization; to replace Monte-Carlo analyses by scenario methods; and to replace data-hungry quantitative risk assessment by easy-to-communicate qualitative methods. For improved communication, it is critical to set up common glossaries of terms to avoid misunderstandings, use striking visualization to communicate key concepts, and jointly and continually revisit the project objectives. Ultimately, these approaches and recommendations are simple and utilitarian enough to be transferred directly to other practical water resource related problems.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  18. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  19. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  20. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  1. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  2. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  3. An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

    Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

    2014-04-01

    Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Benthic invertebrate exposure and chronic toxicity risk analysis for cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes: Comparison of hazard quotient and probabilistic risk assessment approaches.

    Woodburn, Kent B; Seston, Rita M; Kim, Jaeshin; Powell, David E

    2018-02-01

    This study utilized probabilistic risk assessment techniques to compare field sediment concentrations of the cyclic volatile methylsiloxane (cVMS) materials octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4, CAS # 556-67-2), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5, CAS # 541-02-6), and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6, CAS # 540-97-6) to effect levels for these compounds determined in laboratory chronic toxicity tests with benthic organisms. The concentration data for D4/D5/D6 in sediment were individually sorted and the 95th centile concentrations determined in sediment on an organic carbon (OC) fugacity basis. These concentrations were then compared to interpolated 5th centile benthic sediment no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) fugacity levels, calculated from a distribution of chronic D4/D5/D6 toxicologic assays per OECD guidelines using a variety of standard benthic species. The benthic invertebrate fugacity biota NOEC values were then compared to field-measured invertebrate biota fugacity levels to see if risk assessment evaluations were similar on a field sediment and field biota basis. No overlap was noted for D4 and D5 95th centile sediment and biota fugacity levels and their respective 5th centile benthic organism NOEC values. For D6, there was a small level of overlap at the exposure 95th centile sediment fugacity and the 5th centile benthic organism NOEC fugacity value; the sediment fugacities indicate that a negligible risk (1%) exists for benthic species exposed to D6. In contrast, there was no indication of risk when the field invertebrate exposure 95th centile biota fugacity and the 5th centile benthic organism NOEC fugacity values were compared. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. A margin-of-exposure approach to assessment of noncancer risks of dioxins based on human exposure and response data.

    Aylward, Lesa L; Goodman, Julie E; Charnley, Gail; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

    2008-10-01

    Risk assessment of human environmental exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/PCDFs) and other dioxin-like compounds is complicated by several factors, including limitations in measuring intakes because of the low concentrations of these compounds in foods and the environment and interspecies differences in pharmacokinetics and responses. We examined the feasibility of relying directly on human studies of exposure and potential responses to PCDD/PCDFs and related compounds in terms of measured lipid-adjusted concentrations to assess margin of exposure (MOE) in a quantitative, benchmark dose (BMD)-based framework using representative exposure and selected response data sets. We characterize estimated central tendency and upper-bound general U.S. population lipid-adjusted concentrations of PCDD/PCDFs from the 1970s and early 2000s based on available data sets. Estimates of benchmark concentrations for three example responses of interest (induction of cytochrome P4501A2 activity, dental anomalies, and neonatal thyroid hormone alterations) were derived based on selected human studies. The exposure data sets indicate that current serum lipid concentrations in young adults are approximately 6- to 7-fold lower than 1970s-era concentrations. Estimated MOEs for each end point based on current serum lipid concentrations range from 100 for dental anomalies-approximately 6-fold greater than would have existed during the 1970s. Human studies of dioxin exposure and outcomes can be used in a BMD framework for quantitative assessments of MOE. Incomplete exposure characterization can complicate the use of such studies in a BMD framework.

  6. Probablistic approach to the assessment of the long-term risk linked to the disposal of radioactive waste in geological repositories

    Bertozzi, G; D' Alessandro, M [Commission of the European Communities, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre

    1982-12-01

    A probabilistic approach is described for the assessment of the risk linked to the underground disposal of radioactive materials. Risk quantification is split into the assessment of radioactivity release probabilities and the corresponding consequences. Both probabilities and consequences may be quantified through the use of models which, because of unavoidable uncertainties in input data, are implemented in a probabilistic way. For any uncertain parameter a probability distribution must be defined, in order that the model results reflect the uncertainties of the input data. The probability distribution of the results can be obtained by using analytical codes as well as with Monte Carlo simulations. A simple application of the methodology is given to show what kind of information can be drawn.

  7. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Sub-Watershed for Flood Risk Assessment in Central Karakoram National Park Using Gis/rs Approach

    Syed, N. H.; Rehman, A. A.; Hussain, D.; Ishaq, S.; Khan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    Morphometric analysis is vital for any watershed investigation and it is inevitable for flood risk assessment in sub-watershed basins. Present study undertaken to carry out critical evaluation and assessment of sub watershed morphological parameters for flood risk assessment of Central Karakorum National Park (CKNP), where Geographical information system and remote sensing (GIS & RS) approach used for quantifying the parameter and mapping of sub watershed units. ASTER DEM used as a geo-spatial data for watershed delineation and stream network. Morphometric analysis carried out using spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS 10.2. The parameters included were bifurcation ratio (Rb), Drainage Texture (Rt), Circulatory ratio (Rc), Elongated ratio (Re), Drainage density (Dd), Stream Length (Lu), Stream order (Su), Slope and Basin length (Lb) have calculated separately. The analysis revealed that the stream order varies from order 1 to 6 and the total numbers of stream segments of all orders were 52. Multi criteria analysis process used to calculate the risk factor. As an accomplished result, map of sub watershed prioritization developed using weighted standardized risk factor. These results helped to understand sensitivity of flush floods in different sub watersheds of the study area and leaded to better management of the mountainous regions in prospect of flush floods.

  9. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  10. Assessment of technical risks

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  11. Consideration of the bioavailability of metal/metalloid species in freshwaters: experiences regarding the implementation of biotic ligand model-based approaches in risk assessment frameworks.

    Rüdel, Heinz; Díaz Muñiz, Cristina; Garelick, Hemda; Kandile, Nadia G; Miller, Bradley W; Pantoja Munoz, Leonardo; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Purchase, Diane; Shevah, Yehuda; van Sprang, Patrick; Vijver, Martina; Vink, Jos P M

    2015-05-01

    After the scientific development of biotic ligand models (BLMs) in recent decades, these models are now considered suitable for implementation in regulatory risk assessment of metals in freshwater bodies. The BLM approach has been described in many peer-reviewed publications, and the original complex BLMs have been applied in prospective risk assessment reports for metals and metal compounds. BLMs are now also recommended as suitable concepts for the site-specific evaluation of monitoring data in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. However, the use is hampered by the data requirements for the original BLMs (about 10 water parameters). Recently, several user-friendly BLM-based bioavailability software tools for assessing the aquatic toxicity of relevant metals (mainly copper, nickel, and zinc) became available. These tools only need a basic set of commonly determined water parameters as input (i.e., pH, hardness, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved metal concentration). Such tools seem appropriate to foster the implementation of routine site-specific water quality assessments. This work aims to review the existing bioavailability-based regulatory approaches and the application of available BLM-based bioavailability tools for this purpose. Advantages and possible drawbacks of these tools (e.g., feasibility, boundaries of validity) are discussed, and recommendations for further implementation are given.

  12. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  14. Rat-bites of an epidemic proportion in Peshawar vale; a GIS based approach in risk assessment.

    Fatima, Syeda Hira; Zaidi, Farrah; Adnan, Muhammad; Ali, Asad; Jamal, Qaiser; Khisroon, Muhammad

    2018-03-19

    Contemporary studies demonstrate that rodent bites do not occur frequently. However, a huge number of cases were reported from Peshawar vale, Pakistan during 2016. Two species, the local black rat Rattus rattus (Linnaeus, 1758) and the invasive brown rat Rattus norvegicus (Berkenhout, 1769) might be the suspected cause. Several studies indicated the invasion of brown rats into Pakistan presumably via port city of Karachi. In this study, we modeled geospatial distribution of rodent bites for risk assessment in the region. Bite cases reported to tertiary care lady reading hospital were monitored from January 1 to August 31, 2016. Among 1747 cases, statistically informative data (n = 1295) was used for analyses. MaxEnt algorithm was employed for geospatial modeling, taking into account various environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity, and elevation) and anthropogenic factors (human population density, distance from roads, distance from water channels, and land use/land cover). MaxEnt results revealed that urban slums (84.5%) are at highest risk followed by croplands (10.9%) and shrublands (2.7%). Anthropogenic factors affecting incidence of rodent bites included host density (contribution: 34.7), distance from water channels (3.2), land use/land cover (2.8), and distance from roads (2). Most of the cases occurred within a radius of 0.3 km from roads and 5 km from water channels. Rodent bite incidence is currently at its peak in Peshawar vale. Factors significantly affecting rodents' bite activity and their distribution and dispersal include urbanization, distance from roads, and water channels. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of invasion by brown rat on bite incidence.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixture Toxicity and a Trait Based Approach to Soil Invertebrate Species for Site Specific Risk Assessments.

    Gainer, Amy; Cousins, Mark; Hogan, Natacha; Siciliano, Steven D

    2018-05-05

    Although petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs) released to the environment typically occur as mixtures, PHC remediation guidelines often reflect individual substance toxicity. It is well documented that groups of aliphatic PHCs act via the same mechanism of action, nonpolar narcosis and, theoretically, concentration addition mixture toxicity principles apply. To assess this theory, ten standardized acute and chronic soil invertebrate toxicity tests on a range of organisms (Eisenia fetida, Lumbricus terrestris, Enchytraeus crypticus, Folsomia candida, Oppia nitens and Hypoaspis aculeifer) were conducted with a refined PHC binary mixture. Reference models for concentration addition and independent action were applied to the mixture toxicity data with consideration of synergism, antagonism and dose level toxicity. Both concentration addition and independent action, without further interactions, provided the best fit with observed response to the mixture. Individual fraction effective concentration values were predicted from optimized, fitted reference models. Concentration addition provided a better estimate than independent action of individual fraction effective concentrations based on comparison with available literature and species trends observed in toxic responses to the mixture. Interspecies differences in standardized laboratory soil invertebrate species responses to PHC contaminated soil was reflected in unique traits. Diets that included soil, large body size, permeable cuticle, low lipid content, lack of ability to molt and no maternal transfer were traits linked to a sensitive survival response to PHC contaminated soil in laboratory tests. Traits linked to sensitive reproduction response in organisms tested were long life spans with small clutch sizes. By deriving single fraction toxicity endpoints considerate of mixtures, we reduce resources and time required in conducting site specific risk assessments for the protection of soil organism's exposure pathway. This

  17. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-12-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development in environmental compartments and demonstrate its application in aquaculture production systems. We modelled exposure concentrations for 12 antibiotics used in Vietnamese Pangasius catfish production using the ERA-AQUA model. Minimum selective concentration (MSC) distributions that characterize the selective pressure of antibiotics on bacterial communities were derived from the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Minimum Inhibitory Concentration dataset. The antibiotic resistance development risk (RDR) for each antibiotic was calculated as the probability that the antibiotic exposure distribution exceeds the MSC distribution representing the bacterial community. RDRs in pond sediments were nearly 100% for all antibiotics. Median RDR values in pond water were high for the majority of the antibiotics, with rifampicin, levofloxacin and ampicillin having highest values. In the effluent mixing area, RDRs were low for most antibiotics, with the exception of amoxicillin, ampicillin and trimethoprim, which presented moderate risks, and rifampicin and levofloxacin, which presented high risks. The RDR provides an efficient means to benchmark multiple antibiotics and treatment regimes in the initial phase of a risk assessment with regards to their potential to develop resistance in different environmental compartments, and can be used to derive resistance threshold concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Risk Assessment Approach to Manage Inundation of Elseya albagula Nests in Impounded Waters: A Win-Win Situation?

    McDougall, A. J.; Espinoza, T.; Hollier, C.; Limpus, D. J.; Limpus, C. J.

    2015-03-01

    A risk assessment process was used to trial the impact of potential new operating rules on the frequency of nest inundation for the White-throated snapping turtle, Elseya albagula, in the impounded waters of the Burnett River, Queensland, Australia. The proposed operating rules would increase the barrage storage level during the turtle nesting season (May-July) and then would be allowed to reduce to a lower level for incubation for the rest of the year. These proposed operating rules reduce rates of nest inundation by altering water levels in the Ben Anderson Barrage impoundment of the Burnett River. The rules operate throughout the turtle reproductive period and concomitantly improve stability of littoral habitat and fishway operation. Additionally, the proposed rules are expected to have positive socio-economic benefits within the region. While regulated water resources will inherently have a number of negative environmental implications, these potential new operating rules have the capacity to benefit the environment while managing resources in a more sustainable manner. The operating rules have now been enacted in subordinate legislation and require the operator to maintain water levels to minimize turtle nest inundation.

  19. A multidisciplinary weight of evidence approach for environmental risk assessment at the Costa Concordia wreck: Integrative indices from Mussel Watch.

    Regoli, Francesco; Pellegrini, David; Cicero, Anna Maria; Nigro, Marco; Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Di Carlo, Marta; Nardi, Alessandro; Gaion, Andrea; Scuderi, Alice; Giuliani, Silvia; Romanelli, Giulia; Berto, Daniela; Trabucco, Benedetta; Guidi, Patrizia; Bernardeschi, Margherita; Scarcelli, Vittoria; Frenzilli, Giada

    2014-05-01

    A complex framework of chemical, biological and oceanographic activities was immediately activated after the Costa Concordia shipwreck, to assess possible contamination events and the environmental impact during both emergency and wreck removal operations. In the present paper, we describe the results obtained with caged mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, chosen as bioindicator organisms to detect variations of bioavailability and the early onset of molecular and cellular effects (biomarkers). Seven translocation experiments were carried out during the first year from the incident, with organisms deployed at 2 depths in 3 different sites. After 4-6 weeks, tissue concentrations were measured for the main classes of potentially released chemicals (trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile and aliphatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, halogenated pesticides, organotin compounds, brominated flame retardants, anionic surfactants); a wide battery of biomarkers covered responses indicative of exposure, detoxification, oxidative stress, cell damage and genotoxic effects. Results excluded serious contamination events or a consistent increase of environmental pollution although some episodic spills with reversible effects were detected. Data were elaborated within a quantitative weight of evidence (WOE) model which provided synthetic hazard indices for each typology of data, before their overall integration in an environmental risk index, which generally ranged from slight to moderate. The proposed WOE model was confirmed a useful tool to summarize large datasets of complex data in integrative indices, and to simplify the interpretation for stakeholders and decision makers, thus supporting a more comprehensive process of "site-oriented" management decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products.

    Diana María Herrera-Ibatá

    Full Text Available The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs. Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF and Classical swine fever (CSF introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3. Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF. This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products. The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products, is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US.

  1. Caries risk assessment

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  2. Lung cancer risk assessment due to traffic-generated particles exposure in urban street canyons: A numerical modelling approach.

    Scungio, M; Stabile, L; Rizza, V; Pacitto, A; Russi, A; Buonanno, G

    2018-08-01

    Combustion-generated nanoparticles are responsible for negative health effects due to their ability to penetrate in the lungs, carrying toxic compounds with them. In urban areas, the coexistence of nanoparticle sources and particular street-building configurations can lead to very high particle exposure levels. In the present paper, an innovative approach for the evaluation of lung cancer incidence in street canyon due to exposure to traffic-generated particles was proposed. To this end, the literature-available values of particulate matter, PAHs and heavy metals emitted from different kind of vehicles were used to calculate the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) at the tailpipe. The estimated ELCR was then used as input data in a numerical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model that solves the mass, momentum, turbulence and species transport equations, in order to evaluate the cancer risk in every point of interest inside the street canyon. Thus, the influence of wind speed and street canyon geometry (H/W, height of building, H and width of the street, W) on the ELCR at street level was evaluated by means of a CFD simulation. It was found that the ELCR calculated on the leeward and windward sides of the street canyon at a breathable height of 1.5 m, for people exposed 15 min per day for 20 years, is equal to 1.5 × 10 -5 and 4.8 × 10 -6 , respectively, for wind speed of 1 m/s and H/W equal to 1. The ELCR at street level results higher on the leeward side for aspect ratios equal to 1 and 3, while for aspect ratio equal to 2 it is higher on the windward side. In addition, the simulations showed that with the increasing of wind speed the ELCR becomes lower everywhere in the street canyon, due to the increased in dispersion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Approaches of health risk assessment in air pollution; Les approches de l'evaluation des risques sanitaires lies a la pollution atmospherique

    Festy, B. [Paris-5 Univ., 75 (France). Faculte des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques de Paris-Luxembourg

    1997-07-01

    The relationships between health and environment are often difficult to establish due to the large number of contaminants and routes of absorption, the low doses involved, the type of effects (acute or chronic), the lack of specificity, the time before the effects are observed and the low individual risks. A great deal of knowledge is required, beginning with the source of emission and ending up with the effect on health, passing by the quality of the environments, the exposure for the individual and the groups and their perception of the phenomena in pedagogical, social and (dis)comfort terms. The North-American approach to assess the risk tries to understand these different problems by means of an approach that is as scientific, coherent and clear as possible: identification of the danger, estimate of its probability, evaluation of the exposure (populations, conditions) and synthetic characterization of the risk. This procedure comes before the difficult management of the risk and is absolutely necessary to determine the reference values and the standards. The chemical aspects of air pollution (A.P.) raise difficult problems in this area. In practice, the assessment of the risk involves environmental and biological phenomena. The environmental approach involves products (ex. fuels), processes and sources of emissions and, above all, the quality of the atmospheric environments ('immissions') due to the characterization and quantification of more or less classic physico-chemical indicators (SO{sub 2}, particles, NO{sub x}, O{sub 3}, metals, hydrocarbons, etc.) measured on the sites (monitoring networks) or in the laboratory, or more rarely, (eco)-toxicological, measured in the laboratory (cell models) or in the field (bio-indicators). The former provide a fairly exact idea of the external collective exposure of populations. The latter provide a more or less global and biological assessment of the quality of the air consisting of (geno)toxic potentialities

  4. Using a tiered approach based on ecotoxicological techniques to assess the ecological risks of contamination in a subtropical estuarine protected area.

    Campos, B G; Cruz, A C F; Buruaem, L M; Rodrigues, A P C; Machado, W T V; Abessa, D M S

    2016-02-15

    This study sought to assess the ecological risks of sediments from the northern portion of an estuarine protected area (Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe Protected Area--CIP-PA). The CIP-PA is located on the southern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil and is influenced by former mining activities along the Ribeira de Iguape River (RIR). We used a tiered approach based on multiple lines of evidence (geochemical analyses, toxicity tests, and whole sediment toxicity identification and evaluation) in order to assess environmental quality. The sediments presented a heterogeneous composition, but the samples collected close to the RIR exhibited higher concentrations of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb) and toxicity. Multivariate analysis showed that toxicity was associated with metals, mud, organic matter, and CaCO3 quantities. The whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation approach indicated that ammonia and metals were responsible for sediment toxicity. Overall, we concluded that the sediments collected at depositional areas from the northern portion of the CIP-PA presented high levels of metals, which originated from former mining areas located in the upper RIR basin, and that this contamination had toxic effects on aquatic invertebrates. The tiered approach was useful for identifying the degradation of sediment quality and also for indicating the causes of toxicity. Because the CIP-PA is an important estuarine protected area that is ecologically at risk, large-scale measures are required to control the sources of contamination.

  5. Integrating the Ergonomics Techniques with Multi Criteria Decision Making as a New Approach for Risk Management: An Assessment of Repetitive Tasks -Entropy Case Study.

    Khandan, Mohammad; Nili, Majid; Koohpaei, Alireza; Mosaferchi, Saeedeh

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the health work decision makers need to analyze a huge amount of data and consider many conflicting evaluation criteria and sub-criteria. Therefore, an ergonomic evaluation in the work environment in order to the control occupational disorders is considered as the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. In this study, the ergonomic risks factors, which may influence health, were evaluated in a manufacturing company in 2014. Then entropy method was applied to prioritize the different risk factors. This study was done with a descriptive-analytical approach and 13 tasks were included from total number of employees who were working in the seven halls of an ark opal manufacturing (240). Required information was gathered by the demographic questionnaire and Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART) method for repetitive task assessment. In addition, entropy was used to prioritize the risk factors based on the ergonomic control needs. The total exposure score based on the ART method calculated was equal to 30.07 ±12.43. Data analysis illustrated that 179 cases (74.6% of tasks) were in the high level of risk area and 13.8% were in the medium level of risk. ART- entropy results revealed that based on the weighted factors, higher value belongs to grip factor and the lowest value was related to neck and hand posture and duration. Based on the limited financial resources, it seems that MCDM in many challenging situations such as control procedures and priority approaches could be used successfully. Other MCDM methods for evaluating and prioritizing the ergonomic problems are recommended.

  6. An approach for assessing development and deployment risks in the DOE fuel cycle options evaluation and screening study - 5267

    Gehin, J.C.; Worrall, A.; Oakley, B.; Jenni, K.; Taiwo, T.; Wigeland, R.

    2015-01-01

    One of the key objectives of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research/development road-map is the development of sustainable nuclear fuel cycles that can improve natural resource utilization and provide solutions to the management of nuclear wastes. Recently, an evaluation and screening (ES) of fuel cycle systems has been conducted to identify those options that provide the best opportunities for obtaining such improvements and also to identify the required research and development activities that can support the development of advanced fuel cycle options. In order to evaluate and screen fuel cycle systems in the ES study, nine criteria were used including Development and Deployment Risk (DDR). More specifically, this criterion was represented by the following metrics: Development time, development cost, deployment cost from prototypic validation to first-of-a-kind commercial, compatibility with the existing nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure, existence of regulations for the fuel cycle and familiarity with licensing, and existence of market incentives and/or barriers to commercial implementation of fuel cycle processes. Given the comprehensive nature of the study, a systematic approach was needed to determine metric data for the DDR criterion. As would be expected, the Evaluation Group representing the once-through use of uranium in thermal reactors is always the highest ranked fuel cycle Evaluation Group for this DDR criterion. Evaluation Groups that consist of once-through fuel cycles that use existing reactor types are consistently ranked very high. The highest ranked limited and continuous recycle fuel cycle Evaluation Groups are those that recycle Pu in thermal reactors. The lowest ranked fuel cycles are predominately continuous recycle single stage and multi-stage fuel cycles that involve TRU and/or U 233 recycle. (authors)

  7. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  8. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  9. Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures-a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions.

    Pereira, Ana Santos; Daam, Michiel A; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2017-07-01

    FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese 'Lezíria do Tejo' agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.

  10. Explaining the Decrease in Deaths from Cardiovascular Disease in Poland. The Top-Down Risk Assessment Approach, from Policy to Health Impact.

    Kobza, Joanna; Geremek, Mariusz

    2016-04-13

    The purpose of this paper was to assess the relations between policy and health outcome The CVD mortality rate in Poland over the past two decades has decreased by about 40%. It was the highest decrease among Central and Eastern European countries and also exceptional on a global scale. Key determinants which can account for these phenomena include CVD-related life style factors, better environmental indicators, and better access to medical technologies and to pharmacological treatment. Health policy played a vital role. The study was based on an extensive literature review, documentation analysis and questionnaire survey research. The top-down risk assessment approach model was implemented, which followed the logical pathway between the policy, health determinants, risk factors and health outcome. Several national public health programs have been implemented since the beginning of the 1990s. The National Health Fund has constantly increased the expenditures on cardiology treatment. The number of invasive cardiology units has increased, as has the number of coronarography and angioplasty procedures in the same period. The significant mortality decrease can indicate to policy makers that it is necessary to prioritize policies to manage effective, innovative medical interventions. Topdown policy risk assessment is a useful methodological tool to present the full chain of interactions.

  11. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  12. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  13. Integrated challenge test: a new approach evaluating quantitative risk assessment of Listeria in ready to eat foods

    Paolo Matteini

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The study was aimed to predict the maximum concentration of Listeria monocytogenes during the shelf life in chicken liver paté. The prediction has been performed using the integrated challenge test: a test based on the interaction between indigenous lactic flora and L. monocytogenes and their growth parameters. Two different approaches were investigated: the former is based on the time difference between the onset of the L. monocytogenes and the lactic flora stationary phases, while the latter is based on the lactic flora concentration capable to induct the stationary phase of L. monocytogenes. Three different strains of L. monocytogenes, isolated from meat products, were used to perform three challenge tests. Triplicate samples from three different batches of liver paté were inoculated with a single-strain inoculum of 1.8 Log CFU/g. Samples were then stored at 4°C, 8°C and 12°C. Lactobacillus spp. (ISO 15214:1998 and L. monocytogenes (UNI EN ISO 11290-02:2005 plate counts were performed daily on each sample until the stationary phase was reached by both populations. The challenge test results were input in the Combase software to determine the growth parameters, later used for the calculation method. Predictive data were then statically assessed against the results of two additional challenge tests using triplicate samples from two different batches, the same strains and the same single-strain inoculum. Samples from the first batch were stored for 5 days at 4°C + 5 days at 8°C + 5 days at 12°C; samples from the second batch were stored for 3 days at 4°C + 3 days at 8°C + 4 days at 12°C. The results obtained showed that both approaches provided results very close to the reality. Therefore the Integrated challenge test is useful to determine the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes, by simply knowing the concentration of the concerned microbial populations at a given time.

  14. Multi-stakeholder decision analysis and comparative risk assessment for reuse-recycle oriented e-waste management strategies: a game theoretic approach.

    Kaushal, Rajendra Kumar; Nema, Arvind K

    2013-09-01

    This article deals with assessment of the potential health risk posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, namely lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper, chromium (CrVI), zinc, nickel and mercury, present in e-waste. A multi-objective, multi-stakeholder approach based on strategic game theory model has been developed considering cost, as well as human health risk. The trade-off due to cost difference between a hazardous substances-free (HSF) and a hazardous substance (HS)-containing desktop computer, and the risk posed by them at the time of disposal, has been analyzed. The cancer risk due to dust inhalation for workers at a recycling site in Bangalore for Pb, Cr(VI) and Cd was found to be 4, 33 and 101 in 1 million respectively. Pb and Cr(VI) result in a very high risk owing to dust ingestion at slums near the recycling site--175 and 81 in 1 million for children, and 24 and 11 in 1 million for adults respectively. The concentration of Pb at a battery workshop in Mayapuri, Delhi (hazard quotient = 3.178) was found to pose adverse health hazards. The government may impose an appropriate penalty on the land disposal of computer waste and/or may give an incentive to manufacturer for producing HSF computers through, for example, relaxing taxes, but there should be no such incentive for manufacturing HS-containing computers.

  15. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  16. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  17. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  18. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  19. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches.

    Pivato, Alberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Manachini, Barbara; Vanin, Stefano; Raga, Roberto; Beggio, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i) one based on the "substance-based" approach and (ii) a second based on the "matrix-based" approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs) for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity. The results indicate that the "matrix-based" approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized "substance based" approach is (i) comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii) is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii) accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv) can be considered sufficiently conservative.

  20. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches

    Alberto Pivato

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i one based on the “substance-based” approach and (ii a second based on the “matrix-based” approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity.The results indicate that the “matrix-based” approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized “substance based” approach is (i comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv can be considered sufficiently conservative. Keyword: Environmental science

  1. Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study.

    Cheng, Ji; Iorio, Alfonso; Marcucci, Maura; Romanov, Vadim; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Marshall, John K; Thabane, Lehana

    2016-01-01

    Developing inhibitors is a rare event during the treatment of hemophilia A. The multifacets and uncertainty surrounding the development of inhibitors further complicate the process of estimating inhibitor rate from the limited data. Bayesian statistical modeling provides a useful tool in generating, enhancing, and exploring the evidence through incorporating all the available information. We built our Bayesian analysis using three study cases to estimate the inhibitor rates of patients with hemophilia A in three different scenarios: Case 1, a single cohort of previously treated patients (PTPs) or previously untreated patients; Case 2, a meta-analysis of PTP cohorts; and Case 3, a previously unexplored patient population - patients with baseline low-titer inhibitor or history of inhibitor development. The data used in this study were extracted from three published ADVATE (antihemophilic factor [recombinant] is a product of Baxter for treating hemophilia A) post-authorization surveillance studies. Noninformative and informative priors were applied to Bayesian standard (Case 1) or random-effects (Case 2 and Case 3) logistic models. Bayesian probabilities of satisfying three meaningful thresholds of the risk of developing a clinical significant inhibitor (10/100, 5/100 [high rates], and 1/86 [the Food and Drug Administration mandated cutoff rate in PTPs]) were calculated. The effect of discounting prior information or scaling up the study data was evaluated. Results based on noninformative priors were similar to the classical approach. Using priors from PTPs lowered the point estimate and narrowed the 95% credible intervals (Case 1: from 1.3 [0.5, 2.7] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 2: from 1.9 [0.6, 6.0] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 3: 2.3 [0.5, 6.8] to 0.7 [0.5, 1.1]). All probabilities of satisfying a threshold of 1/86 were above 0.65. Increasing the number of patients by two and ten times substantially narrowed the credible intervals for the single cohort study (1.4 [0.7, 2

  2. Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study

    Cheng J

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ji Cheng,1,2 Alfonso Iorio,2,3 Maura Marcucci,4 Vadim Romanov,5 Eleanor M Pullenayegum,6,7 John K Marshall,3,8 Lehana Thabane1,2 1Biostatistics Unit, St Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton, 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 3Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 4Geriatrics, Fondazione Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy; 5Baxter HealthCare, Global Medical Affairs, Westlake Village, CA, USA; 6Child Health Evaluation Sciences, Hospital for Sick Children, 7Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, 8Division of Gastroenterology, Hamilton Health Science, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Developing inhibitors is a rare event during the treatment of hemophilia A. The multifacets and uncertainty surrounding the development of inhibitors further complicate the process of estimating inhibitor rate from the limited data. Bayesian statistical modeling provides a useful tool in generating, enhancing, and exploring the evidence through incorporating all the available information.Methods: We built our Bayesian analysis using three study cases to estimate the inhibitor rates of patients with hemophilia A in three different scenarios: Case 1, a single cohort of previously treated patients (PTPs or previously untreated patients; Case 2, a meta-analysis of PTP cohorts; and Case 3, a previously unexplored patient population – patients with baseline low-titer inhibitor or history of inhibitor development. The data used in this study were extracted from three published ADVATE (antihemophilic factor [recombinant] is a product of Baxter for treating hemophilia A post-authorization surveillance studies. Noninformative and informative priors were applied to Bayesian standard (Case 1 or random-effects (Case 2 and Case 3 logistic models. Bayesian probabilities of satisfying three meaningful thresholds of the risk of developing a clinical

  3. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Brink, Van den Paul J.; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-01-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development

  4. A probabilistic approach to assess antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments and its application to an intensive aquaculture production scenario.

    Rico, Andreu; Jacobs, Rianne; Van den Brink, Paul J; Tello, Alfredo

    2017-01-01

    Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development

  5. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  6. A retrospective approach to assess human health risks associated with growing air pollution in urbanized area of Thar Desert, western Rajasthan, India.

    Rumana, Harcharan Singh; Sharma, Ramesh Chandra; Beniwal, Vikas; Sharma, Anil Kumar

    2014-01-09

    : Air pollution has been a matter of great concern globally because of the associated health risks to individuals. The situation is getting worse in developing countries with more urbanization, industrialization and more importantly the rapidly growing population posing a threat to human life in the form of pulmonary, cardiovascular, carcinogenic or asthmatic diseases by accumulating toxic pollutants, harmful gases, metals, hydrocarbons etc. The present study was undertaken to assess the magnitude of ambient air pollutants and their human health risks like respiratory ailments, infectious diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cancer using a Retrospective Approach of Bart Ostra. The parameters PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2, NH3 and O3 were monitored at all selected study sites monitored through a high volume sampler (APM 451 Envirotech, Envirotech Instruments Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, India). Retrospective Approach was used for assessment of risk factors and disease burden of respiratory and cardiopulmonary health problems. Environmental burden of disease showed that the problem of health related to air pollution is a main concern particularly in the growing cities of India. High to critical level of air pollution including PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2, NH3 and O3 was observed in all seasons at traffic intersections and commercial sites. The respiratory infections (25% incidence in population exposed to indoor smoke problems) and a prevalence of asthma/COPD (4.4%) in households exposed to high vehicular pollution along with signs of coronary artery/heart disease and/or hypertension and cancers (37.9-52.2%), were reported requiring preventive measures. The study reflects a great concern for the mankind with the need of having streamline ways to limit air pollution and emphasize upon efficiently determining the risk of illness upon exposure to air pollution.

  7. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  8. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  9. An approach to societal risk acceptance criteria and risk management

    Okrent, D.; Whipple, C.

    1977-06-01

    A quantitative approach to risk acceptance criteria and risk management is proposed for activities involving risk to individuals not receiving direct benefits, such as employment, from the activity. Societal activities are divided into major facilities or technologies, all or part of which are categorized as essential, beneficial, or peripheral, and a decreasing level of acceptable risk to the most exposed individual is proposed (say, 0.0002/year for essential, 0.00001/year for beneficial, and 0.000002/year for peripheral activity). The risk would be assessed at a high confidence level (say, 90%), thereby providing an incentive to the gaining of better knowledge. Each risk-producing facility, technology, etc., would have to undergo assessment both of risk to the individual and to society. The cost of the latter would have to be internalized, probably via a tax paid to the Federal Government, which in turn would redistribute the benefit as national health insurance or reduced taxes to the individual. Risk aversion to large events would be built into the internalization of the cost of risk

  10. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    . and industrial activities that may pose threats to ecosystems, flora, fauna and humans. This model-concept gives a three-phase assessment where the assessor tries to determine whether a specific place may be subject to assessment, to characterize the level of risk and to confirm or refute the findings of the first phase, collecting information and corrective measures, or to establish basic requirements for environment protection. Risk assessment methodology - American concept: The third methodological approach to environmental risk assessment is developed by the U.S. Agency for Environmental Protection, 'U.S. EPA'. This model primarily involves the implementation of environmental risk assessment under the conditions of anthropogenic impact on environment, without aiming at solving problems of natural environmental risks, although this methodology can be applied in this environment segment as well. The methodology gives a clear distinction between a scientific (phase of estimation and a non-scientific (planning part of assessment. The phases of estimation given by this model are: problem formulation, risk analysis and risk characterization. Conclusion: Concepts and methodologies of all three models-concepts of assessment are mostly reduced to a common goal: how to reduce existing or avoid potential risks. However, it should be noted that the implementation of appropriate management and ecological risk assessment does not guarantee that risks will be avoided or that the implementation of these processes will be successful.

  11. Adequacy of the default values for skin surface area used for risk assessment and French anthropometric data by a probabilistic approach.

    Dornic, N; Ficheux, A S; Bernard, A; Roudot, A C

    2017-08-01

    The notes of guidance for the testing of cosmetic ingredients and their safety evaluation by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS) is a document dedicated to ensuring the safety of European consumers. This contains useful data for risk assessment such as default values for Skin Surface Area (SSA). A more in-depth study of anthropometric data across Europe reveals considerable variations. The default SSA value was derived from a study on the Dutch population, which is known to be one of the tallest nations in the World. This value could be inadequate for shorter populations of Europe. Data were collected in a survey on cosmetic consumption in France. Probabilistic treatment of these data and analysis of the case of methylisothiazolinone, a sensitizer recently evaluated by a deterministic approach submitted to SCCS, suggest that the default value for SSA used in the quantitative risk assessment might not be relevant for a significant share of the French female population. Others female populations of Southern Europe may also be excluded. This is of importance given that some studies show an increasing risk of developping skin sensitization among women. The disparities in anthropometric data across Europe should be taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  13. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  14. Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods.

    Watzl, Bernhard; Gelencsér, Eva; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Kulling, Sabine; Lydeking-Olsen, Eva; Rowland, Ian; Schilter, Benoît; van Klaveren, Jakob; Chiodini, Alessandro

    2012-11-01

    There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population. Copyright © 2011 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

  16. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  17. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the US Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Reservation: 1995 revision

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.; Loar, J.M.

    1995-09-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). It is the third such document prepared for this purpose. The first ecorisk strategy document described the ERA process and presented a tiered approach to ERAs appropriate to complex sites. The first revision was necessitated by the considerable progress that has been made by the parties to the Federal Facilities Agreement (FFA) for the ORR in resolving specific issues relating to ERA as a result of a series of data quality objectives (DQOs) meetings. The tiered approach to ERAs as recommended in the first document was implemented, generic conceptual models were developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints was agreed upon. This revision is necessitated by comments from the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Region IV and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) which clarified and modified the positions taken during the DQO process. In particular, support for the collection of data that would support ERAs for all OUs on the ORR have been withdrawn. Therefore, the work plan developed to fill the reservation-wide data needs identified in the DQO process has also been withdrawn, and portions that are still relevant have been incorporated into this document. The reader should be aware that this guidance is complex and lengthy because it attempts to cover all the reasonable contingencies that were considered to be potentially important to the FFA parties.

  18. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  19. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  20. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  3. An FMEA-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Wind Turbine Systems: A Comparative Study of Onshore and Offshore

    Mahmood Shafiee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for analyzing, evaluating and prioritizing potential/known failure modes. However, several limitations are associated with its practical implementation in wind farms. First, the Risk-Priority-Number (RPN of a wind turbine system is not informative enough for wind farm managers from the perspective of criticality; second, there are variety of wind turbines with different structures and hence, it is not correct to compare the RPN values of different wind turbines with each other for prioritization purposes; and lastly, some important economical aspects such as power production losses, and the costs of logistics and transportation are not taken into account in the RPN value. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we develop a mathematical tool for risk and failure mode analysis of wind turbine systems (both onshore and offshore by integrating the aspects of traditional FMEA and some economic considerations. Then, a quantitative comparative study is carried out using the traditional and the proposed FMEA methodologies on two same type of onshore and offshore wind turbine systems. The results show that the both systems face many of the same risks, however there are some main differences worth considering.

  4. A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

    Swartjes, Frank A.; Versluijs, Kees W.; Otte, Piet F.

    2013-01-01

    Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plant–soil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plant–soil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a ‘conservative’ vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a ‘realistic worst case’ site-specific vegetable

  5. A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

    Swartjes, Frank A., E-mail: frank.swartjes@rivm.nl; Versluijs, Kees W.; Otte, Piet F.

    2013-10-15

    Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plant–soil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plant–soil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a ‘conservative’ vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a ‘realistic worst case’ site-specific vegetable

  6. Toxicity assessment strategies, data requirements, and risk assessment approaches to derive health based guidance values for non-relevant metabolites of plant protection products.

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Melching-Kollmuss, Stephanie; Kalberlah, Fritz

    2010-03-01

    In Europe, limits for tolerable concentrations of "non-relevant metabolites" for active ingredients (AI) of plant protection products in drinking water between 0.1 and 10 microg/L are discussed depending on the toxicological information available. "Non-relevant metabolites" are degradation products of AIs, which do not or only partially retain the targeted toxicities of AIs. For "non-relevant metabolites" without genotoxicity (to be confirmed by testing in vitro), the application of the concept of "thresholds of toxicological concern" results in a health-based drinking water limit of 4.5 microg/L even for Cramer class III compounds, using the TTC threshold of 90 microg/person/day (divided by 10 and 2). Taking into account the thresholds derived from two reproduction toxicity data bases a drinking water limit of 3.0 microg/L is proposed. Therefore, for "non-relevant metabolites" whose drinking water concentration is below 3.0 microg/L, no toxicity testing is necessary. This work develops a toxicity assessment strategy as a basis to delineate health-based limits for "non-relevant metabolites" in ground and drinking water. Toxicological testing is recommended to investigate, whether the metabolites are relevant or not, based on the hazard properties of the parent AIs, as outlined in the SANCO Guidance document. Also, genotoxicity testing of the water metabolites is clearly recommended. In this publication, tiered testing strategies are proposed for non-relevant metabolites, when drinking water concentrations >3.0 microg/L will occur. Conclusions based on structure-activity relationships and the detailed toxicity database on the parent AI should be included. When testing in animals is required for risk assessment, key aspects are studies along OECD-testing guidelines with "enhanced" study designs addressing additional endpoints such as reproductive toxicity and a developmental screening test to derive health-based tolerable drinking water limits with a limited number

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  8. Risk assessment - The future trend

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  9. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  10. Political side of risk: a new approach

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  11. Trans fatty acid content in Malaysian supermarket foods: a field-to-laboratory approach in assessing food risk.

    Karupaiah, Tilakavati; Tan, Hui Kuen; Ong, Wei Wen; Tan, Choon Heen; Sundram, Kalyana

    2014-01-01

    The extent of industrial trans fatty acids (TFA) in the food supply is unknown in Malaysia, whilst TFA disclosure on food labels is not mandatory by Malaysian food standards. Supermarket foods such as dairy products, fats and oils, meat products, snack foods, soups, and confectionery are commonly cited to be major contributors of TFA in the diet. A consumer survey (n = 622) was used to develop a food listing of these 'high risk' foods. TFA content of high-risk foods were analysed by gas chromatography. Food samples (n = 158) were analysed and their total TFA content were compared with Malaysian Food Standards. A wide variation in TFA content within food categories was indicated. Of the foods containing TFA, many food labels did not cite TFA content or the use of partially hydrogenated vegetable oils (PHVO) as an ingredient. Hypothesised estimates of TFA intake from these supermarket foods in a sample day's menu providing 2000 kcal projected a minimum intake of 0.5 g and a maximum intake of 5.2 g TFA. This study found there was no voluntary disclosure of TFA content on food labels or identifying PHVO as an ingredient. It appears that health education targeting consumers to minimise TFA consumption is required supported by mandatory PHVO disclosure on the food label.

  12. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological