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Sample records for risk analytic contributions

  1. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental

  2. Contributions to Analytic Number Theory | Lucht | Quaestiones ...

    This paper reports on some recent contributions to the theory of multiplicative arithmetic semigroups, which have been initiated by John Knopfmacher's work on analytic number theory. They concern weighted inversion theorems of the. Wiener type, mean-value theorems for multiplicative functions, and, Ramanujan

  3. Risk analytics for hedge funds

    Pareek, Ankur

    2005-05-01

    The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

  4. Contemporary Privacy Theory Contributions to Learning Analytics

    Heath, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    With the continued adoption of learning analytics in higher education institutions, vast volumes of data are generated and "big data" related issues, including privacy, emerge. Privacy is an ill-defined concept and subject to various interpretations and perspectives, including those of philosophers, lawyers, and information systems…

  5. Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure of financial companies' contribution to systemic risk, given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define

  6. The contribution of Raman spectroscopy to the analytical quality control of cytotoxic drugs in a hospital environment: eliminating the exposure risks for staff members and their work environment.

    Bourget, Philippe; Amin, Alexandre; Vidal, Fabrice; Merlette, Christophe; Troude, Pénélope; Baillet-Guffroy, Arlette

    2014-08-15

    The purpose of the study was to perform a comparative analysis of the technical performance, respective costs and environmental effect of two invasive analytical methods (HPLC and UV/visible-FTIR) as compared to a new non-invasive analytical technique (Raman spectroscopy). Three pharmacotherapeutic models were used to compare the analytical performances of the three analytical techniques. Statistical inter-method correlation analysis was performed using non-parametric correlation rank tests. The study's economic component combined calculations relative to the depreciation of the equipment and the estimated cost of an AQC unit of work. In any case, analytical validation parameters of the three techniques were satisfactory, and strong correlations between the two spectroscopic techniques vs. HPLC were found. In addition, Raman spectroscopy was found to be superior as compared to the other techniques for numerous key criteria including a complete safety for operators and their occupational environment, a non-invasive procedure, no need for consumables, and a low operating cost. Finally, Raman spectroscopy appears superior for technical, economic and environmental objectives, as compared with the other invasive analytical methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. JUNG’S ANALYTICAL PSYCHOLOGY AND ITS CONTRIBUTIONS TO PSYCHOTHERAPY

    JUAN CARLOS ALONSO G

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is an answer to the growing interest arisen byAnalytic Psychology, a school of thought that compilesthe work of the Swiss doctor Carl G. Jung (1875-1961. There exists a wide lack of information in our society onthe contents of this school and thus this article seeks to offer wide review of its foundations. Given the fact thatthe aforementioned lack of knowledge is even greater in relation to its contributions to clinical work this paperpresents the main contributions made by this approach to psychotherapy. Finally, a mention is made of thedevelopments, revisions and postjunguian schools that have evolved from the original ideas of Jung to our days, aswell as interesting encounter points with other psychoanalitical approaches.

  8. Analytical Modeling for Underground Risk Assessment in Smart Cities

    Israr Ullah

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In the developed world, underground facilities are increasing day-by-day, as it is considered as an improved utilization of available space in smart cities. Typical facilities include underground railway lines, electricity lines, parking lots, water supply systems, sewerage network, etc. Besides its utility, these facilities also pose serious threats to citizens and property. To preempt accidental loss of precious human lives and properties, a real time monitoring system is highly desirable for conducting risk assessment on continuous basis and timely report any abnormality before its too late. In this paper, we present an analytical formulation to model system behavior for risk analysis and assessment based on various risk contributing factors. Based on proposed analytical model, we have evaluated three approximation techniques for computing final risk index: (a simple linear approximation based on multiple linear regression analysis; (b hierarchical fuzzy logic based technique in which related risk factors are combined in a tree like structure; and (c hybrid approximation approach which is a combination of (a and (b. Experimental results shows that simple linear approximation fails to accurately estimate final risk index as compared to hierarchical fuzzy logic based system which shows that the latter provides an efficient method for monitoring and forecasting critical issues in the underground facilities and may assist in maintenance efficiency as well. Estimation results based on hybrid approach fails to accurately estimate final risk index. However, hybrid scheme reveals some interesting and detailed information by performing automatic clustering based on location risk index.

  9. Formalized Search Strategies for Human Risk Contributions

    Rasmussen, Jens; Pedersen, O. M.

    For risk management, the results of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) as well as the underlying assumptions can be used as references in a closed-loop risk control; and the analyses of operational experiences as a means of feedback. In this context, the need for explicit definition...... risk contributions are described on the basis of general plant design features relevant for risk and accident analysis. With this background, search strategies for human risk contributions are treated: Under the designation "work analysis", procedures for the analysis of familiar, well trained, planned...... tasks are proposed. Strategies for identifying human risk contributions outside this category are outlined....

  10. Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

    Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

  11. Formalized search strategies for human risk contributions

    Rasmussen, J.; Pedersen, O.M.

    1982-07-01

    For risk management, the results of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) as well as the underlying assumptions can be used as references in a closed-loop risk control; and the analyses of operational experiences as a means of feedback. In this context, the need for explicit definition and documentation of the PRA coverage, including the search strategies applied, is discussed and aids are proposed such as plant description in terms of a formal abstraction hierarchy and use of cause-consequence-charts for the documentation of not only the results of PRA but also of its coverage. Typical human risk contributions are described on the basis of general plant design features relevant for risk and accident analysis. With this background, search strategies for human risk contributions are treated: Under the designation ''work analysis'', procedures for the analysis of familiar, well trained, planned tasks are proposed. Strategies for identifying human risk contributions outside this category are outlined. (author)

  12. Contribution of Electrochemistry to the Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Analytical Sciences.

    Kauffmann, Jean-Michel; Patris, Stephanie; Vandeput, Marie; Sarakbi, Ahmad; Sakira, Abdul Karim

    2016-01-01

    All analytical techniques have experienced major progress since the last ten years and electroanalysis is also involved in this trend. The unique characteristics of phenomena occurring at the electrode-solution interface along with the variety of electrochemical methods currently available allow for a broad spectrum of applications. Potentiometric, conductometric, voltammetric and amperometric methods are briefly reviewed with a critical view in terms of performance of the developed instrumentation with special emphasis on pharmaceutical and biomedical applications.

  13. Public perception of analytical risk assessments

    Waite, D.A.; McCormack, W.D.

    1990-01-01

    Most analytical assessments of potential impacts on the environment from US Department of Energy (DOE) activities receive, at some point in their development, public scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to discuss the apparent perception of these assessments held by the public reviewers, based on written and verbal comments that they have offered. The discussion begins with a short overview of the analytical assessment process most often used on DOE projects. The process is described in terms of the basic process elements and data sources involved. Based on this outline of the assessment process, the key elements from the public's perspective are identified and examined on the basis of Importance Criteria and the Perception Framework in which the Importance Criteria appear to be applied. The paper is concluded with an analysis of the key elements of the public's perception. This section of the discussion is formatted to couple observational evidence of public perception difficulties with key assessment elements, and these difficulties with potential alternative approaches that serve the same purpose but are more acceptable to the public

  14. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  15. Contribution of analytical techniques coupled to the knowledge of the uranium speciation in natural conditions

    Petit, J.

    2009-06-01

    To understand the transport mechanisms and the radionuclides behaviour in the bio-geosphere is necessary to evaluate healthy and environmental risks of nuclear industry. These mechanisms are monitored by radioelements speciation, namely the distribution between their different physico-chemical forms in the environment. From this perspective, this PhD thesis deals with uranium speciation in a natural background. A detailed summary of uranium biogeochemistry has been written, which enables to restrict the PhD issue to uranium complexation with oxalic acid, a hydrophilic organic acid with good binding properties, ubiquitous in soil waters. Analytical conditions have been established by means of speciation diagrams. The speciation diagrams building by means of literature stability constants has allowed to define the analytical conditions of complex formation. The chosen analytical technique is the hyphenation of a separative technique (liquid chromatography LC or capillary electrophoresis CE) with mass spectrometry (ICPMS). The studied complexes presence in the synthetic samples has been confirmed with UV/visible spectrophotometry. LC-ICPMS analyses have proved the lability of the uranyl-organic acid complexes, namely their tendency to dissociate during analysis, which prevents from studying uranium speciation. CE-ICPMS study of labile complexes from a metal-ligand system has been made possible by employing affinity capillary electrophoresis, which enables to determine stability constants and electrophoretic mobilities. This PhD thesis has allowed to compare the different mathematical treatments of binding isotherm and to take into account ionic strength and real ligand concentration. Affinity CE has been applied successfully to lanthanum-oxalate (model system) and uranium-oxalate systems. The obtained results have been applied to a real system (situated in Le Bouchet). This shows the contribution of the developed method to the modelling of uranium speciation. (author)

  16. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  17. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

    Renn, Ortwin

    2006-01-01

    The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement

  19. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  20. Risk Governance: An Application of Analytic-Deliberative Policy Making

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany)

    2006-09-15

    The paper introduces an integrated analytic framework for risk governance which provides guidance for the development of comprehensive assessment and management strategies to cope with risks, in particular at the global level. The framework integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders. The concept of risk governance comprises a broad picture of risk: not only does it include what has been termed 'risk management' or 'risk analysis, it also looks at how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The framework's risk process breaks down into three main phases: 'pre-assessment', 'appraisal', and 'management'. A further phase, comprising the 'characterisation' and 'evaluation' of risk, is placed between the appraisal and management phases and, depending on whether those charged with the assessment or those responsible for management are better equipped to perform the associated tasks, can be assigned to either of them - thus concluding the appraisal phase or marking the start of the management phase. The risk process has 'communication' as a companion to all phases of addressing and handling risk and is itself of a cyclical nature. However, the clear sequence of phases and steps offered by this process is primarily a logical and functional one and will not always correspond to reality. The paper will address in particular the role of public participation and stakeholder involvement.

  1. Dissociable meta-analytic brain networks contribute to coordinated emotional processing.

    Riedel, Michael C; Yanes, Julio A; Ray, Kimberly L; Eickhoff, Simon B; Fox, Peter T; Sutherland, Matthew T; Laird, Angela R

    2018-06-01

    Meta-analytic techniques for mining the neuroimaging literature continue to exert an impact on our conceptualization of functional brain networks contributing to human emotion and cognition. Traditional theories regarding the neurobiological substrates contributing to affective processing are shifting from regional- towards more network-based heuristic frameworks. To elucidate differential brain network involvement linked to distinct aspects of emotion processing, we applied an emergent meta-analytic clustering approach to the extensive body of affective neuroimaging results archived in the BrainMap database. Specifically, we performed hierarchical clustering on the modeled activation maps from 1,747 experiments in the affective processing domain, resulting in five meta-analytic groupings of experiments demonstrating whole-brain recruitment. Behavioral inference analyses conducted for each of these groupings suggested dissociable networks supporting: (1) visual perception within primary and associative visual cortices, (2) auditory perception within primary auditory cortices, (3) attention to emotionally salient information within insular, anterior cingulate, and subcortical regions, (4) appraisal and prediction of emotional events within medial prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortices, and (5) induction of emotional responses within amygdala and fusiform gyri. These meta-analytic outcomes are consistent with a contemporary psychological model of affective processing in which emotionally salient information from perceived stimuli are integrated with previous experiences to engender a subjective affective response. This study highlights the utility of using emergent meta-analytic methods to inform and extend psychological theories and suggests that emotions are manifest as the eventual consequence of interactions between large-scale brain networks. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  3. Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

    2010-07-27

    The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (psocial relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  4. Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects.

    Aminbakhsh, Saman; Gunduz, Murat; Sonmez, Rifat

    2013-09-01

    The inherent and unique risks on construction projects quite often present key challenges to contractors. Health and safety risks are among the most significant risks in construction projects since the construction industry is characterized by a relatively high injury and death rate compared to other industries. In construction project management, safety risk assessment is an important step toward identifying potential hazards and evaluating the risks associated with the hazards. Adequate prioritization of safety risks during risk assessment is crucial for planning, budgeting, and management of safety related risks. In this paper, a safety risk assessment framework is presented based on the theory of cost of safety (COS) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The main contribution of the proposed framework is that it presents a robust method for prioritization of safety risks in construction projects to create a rational budget and to set realistic goals without compromising safety. The framework provides a decision tool for the decision makers to determine the adequate accident/injury prevention investments while considering the funding limits. The proposed safety risk framework is illustrated using a real-life construction project and the advantages and limitations of the framework are discussed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans [European Commission, Brussels (Belgium). DG Research

    2001-07-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable.

  6. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable

  7. Euratom Research Contributing to Better Risk Governance

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

    2003-01-01

    Over the past decade, greater attention has increasingly been given to broader, less technical, issues in determining the scope and content of research carried out under the auspices of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) Framework Programmes. This reflects a more general trend, in particular a need for research to take due account of the ethical, social, legal, regulatory and wider cultural aspects resulting from the development and exploitation of its outcomes. These considerations are fully embedded within the 61 Framework Programme and are matters which must be explicitly addressed by most projects. The increasing importance of these aspects is exemplified by the inclusion in the 6th Framework Programme of 'science and society' and 'citizens and governance in a knowledge based society' as two of its priorities. The paper summarises Euratom research being carried out in the 5th Framework Programme that addresses broader, less technical, issues in particular those that are concerned with better approaches to risk governance and broader stakeholder involvement or participation. This research is mainly being carried out in the areas of radioactive waste management and the management of nuclear emergencies but is complemented by research of a more general nature concerned with risk governance. Further research in these areas will continue in the 61 Frarnework Programme with increasing attention given to how it can be practically exploited

  8. Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

    Costas Armenakis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

  9. The contribution of analytical detection methods to the enforcement of good irradiation practice

    Ehlermann, D.A.E.

    1996-01-01

    Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) is a generally accepted principle combining several features in order to achieve the optimal quality. In other words, GMP is observed if every possible measure is taken to contribute to the best possible quality of the end product. In this sense, Good Irradiation Practice (GIP) may be understood as one of the many elements of GMP dealing especially with aspects of processing food using ionising radiation. On the contrary the operator of an irradiation facility may consider GIP as the central idea including that GMP - in this case excluding the radiation aspects - is observed in addition to GIP standards. Regardless of this theoretical dispute, it is obvious that food irradiation requires classical GMP to be applied without exception and that good practice is also applied in radiation processing. The main interest in analytical methods for the identification of radiation processed food arose from the need to enforce the ban on this process, to verify correct labelling, or to ensure that it is used only for the very limited number of application which are permitted. In this field, identification methods already introduced into the official food inspection systems have contributed considerably towards making evident several cases of the fraudulent application of radiation processing. At present, as radiation processing of food is becoming more and more accepted, the number of national clearances is increasing and the European Community is preparing for a Directive to harmonise the food laws of the member states with regard to food irradiation. Therefore, it should be considered how the analytical detection methods which have been developed could contribute to enforcing good manufacturing practices, once the main goal ceases to be the suppression of this process. (author)

  10. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  11. An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability

    Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng

    2018-04-01

    Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.

  12. The Ethics of Using Learning Analytics to Categorize Students on Risk

    Scholes, Vanessa

    2016-01-01

    There are good reasons for higher education institutions to use learning analytics to risk-screen students. Institutions can use learning analytics to better predict which students are at greater risk of dropping out or failing, and use the statistics to treat "risky" students differently. This paper analyses this practice using…

  13. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

    Roux, Izak Johannes, III

    Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

  14. Simple analytical methods for computing the gravity-wave contribution to the cosmic background radiation anisotropy

    Wang, Y.

    1996-01-01

    We present two simple analytical methods for computing the gravity-wave contribution to the cosmic background radiation (CBR) anisotropy in inflationary models; one method uses a time-dependent transfer function, the other methods uses an approximate gravity-mode function which is a simple combination of the lowest order spherical Bessel functions. We compare the CBR anisotropy tensor multipole spectrum computed using our methods with the previous result of the highly accurate numerical method, the open-quote open-quote Boltzmann close-quote close-quote method. Our time-dependent transfer function is more accurate than the time-independent transfer function found by Turner, White, and Lindsey; however, we find that the transfer function method is only good for l approx-lt 120. Using our approximate gravity-wave mode function, we obtain much better accuracy; the tensor multipole spectrum we find differs by less than 2% for l approx-lt 50, less than 10% for l approx-lt 120, and less than 20% for l≤300 from the open-quote open-quote Boltzmann close-quote close-quote result. Our approximate graviton mode function should be quite useful in studying tensor perturbations from inflationary models. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  15. Identifying risk factors that contribute to acute mountain sickness ...

    This study is a questionnaire-based study conducted in London and at Everest Base Camp, in which 116 lowlanders were invited to participate and fill in a questionnaire to identify potential risk factors in their history that may have contributed to development of or protection against AMS. Results. A total of 89 lowlanders ...

  16. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  17. The simple analytics of systemic liquidity risk regulation

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2011-01-01

    How to regulate systemic risk? This column presents a new CEPR discussion paper assessing the performance of Pigouvian taxes and quantity-based regulations in containing the social costs of high-risk banking. It finds that, depending on how banks differ, the socially efficient solution may be

  18. The contribution of office work to sedentary behaviour associated risk

    Parry, Sharon; Straker, Leon

    2013-01-01

    Background Sedentary time has been found to be independently associated with poor health and mortality. Further, a greater proportion of the workforce is now employed in low activity occupations such as office work. To date, there is no research that specifically examines the contribution of sedentary work to overall sedentary exposure and thus risk. The purpose of the study was to determine the total exposure and exposure pattern for sedentary time, light activity and moderate/vigorous physi...

  19. Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 2713 (2013), s. 1-5 ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Google Trends * diversification * portfolio Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 5.078, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kristoufek-can google trends search queries contribute to risk diversification.pdf

  20. Aspartame and Risk of Cancer: A Meta-analytic Review.

    Mallikarjun, Sreekanth; Sieburth, Rebecca McNeill

    2015-01-01

    Aspartame (APM) is the most commonly used artificial sweetener and flavor enhancer in the world. There is a rise in concern that APM is carcinogenic due to a variation in the findings of the previous APM carcinogenic bioassays. This article conducts a meta-analytic review of all previous APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents that were conducted before 31 December 2012. The search yielded 10 original APM carcinogenic bioassays on rodents. The aggregate effect sizes suggest that APM consumption has no significant carcinogenic effect in rodents.

  1. Contribution to analytical solution of neutron slowing down problem in homogeneous and heterogeneous media

    Stefanovic, D.B.

    1970-12-01

    The objective of this work is to describe the new analytical solution of the neutron slowing down equation for infinite monoatomic media with arbitrary energy dependence of cross section. The solution is obtained by introducing Green slowing down functions instead of starting from slowing down equations directly. The previously used methods for calculation of fission neutron spectra in the reactor cell were numerical. The proposed analytical method was used for calculating the space-energy distribution of fast neutrons and number of neutron reactions in a thermal reactor cell. The role of analytical method in solving the neutron slowing down in reactor physics is to enable understating of the slowing down process and neutron transport. The obtained results could be used as standards for testing the accuracy od approximative and practical methods

  2. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  3. Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite; Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence

    Manmohan S. Kumar; Avinash Persaud

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness...

  4. Enhancing Treatment Outcome of Patients at Risk of Treatment Failure: Meta-Analytic and Mega-Analytic Review of a Psychotherapy Quality Assurance System

    Shimokawa, Kenichi; Lambert, Michael J.; Smart, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Outcome research has documented worsening among a minority of the patient population (5% to 10%). In this study, we conducted a meta-analytic and mega-analytic review of a psychotherapy quality assurance system intended to enhance outcomes in patients at risk of treatment failure. Method: Original data from six major studies conducted…

  5. Analytic calculation of radiative-recoil corrections to muonium hyperfine splitting: Electron-line contribution

    Eides, M.I.; Karshenboim, S.G.; Shelyuto, V.A.

    1991-01-01

    The detailed account of analytic calculation of radiative-recoil correction to muonium hyperfine splitting, induced by electron-line radiative insertions, is presented. The consideration is performed in the framework of the effective two-particle formalism. A good deal of attention is paid to the problem of the divergence cancellation and the selection of graphs, relevant to radiative-recoil corrections. The analysis is greatly facilitated by use of the Fried-Yennie gauge for radiative photons. The obtained set of graphs turns out to be gauge-invariant and actual calculations are performed in the Feynman gauge. The main technical tricks, with the help of which we have effectively utilized the existence in the problem of the small parameter-mass ratio and managed to perform all calculations in the analytic form are described. The main intermediate results, as well as the final answer, δE rr = (α(Ζα)/π 2 )(m/M)E F (6ζ(3) + 3π 2 In 2 + π 2 /2 + 17/8), are also presented

  6. An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Obadović Milica D.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

  7. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-12-15

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  8. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA for Environmental Risk Management

    Yan Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

  9. Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

    Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

    2016-01-01

    With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

  10. Carbon Impact Analytics - How to measure the contribution of a portfolio to the energy and climate transition

    2015-01-01

    In a world transitioning to a low-carbon economy, it is crucial that investors and asset managers are equipped with strategies and tools to choose the financial assets most likely to thrive. Carbon Impact Analytics is an answer to this pressing yet unfulfilled need. This methodology was developed by Carbone 4 in collaboration with Mirova, Natixis Asset Management subsidiary dedicated to responsible investment. MAIF, a mutual insurance company, is also an early sponsor of the methodology. Carbon Impact Analytics (CIA) intends to measure and compare the contribution of financial assets and portfolios to the low-carbon economy. In this first version, the methodology covers corporate equities and bonds, with an international scope. This guide details the methodological principles of Carbon Impact Analytics. It is aimed at portfolio managers and asset owners interested in implementing Carbon Impact Analytics, and more broadly, to anyone seeking details on the methodology. Analysis of the carbon impact of a portfolio begins with an in-depth assessment of each underlying firm, followed by aggregation at the portfolio level. This allows for differentiation between companies in the same business sector, and enables recognition of companies' efforts in integrating climate and energy-related issues in their strategic decisions and reporting. Challenges regarding the low-carbon transition vary depending on the characteristics of each economic sector. Therefore, Carbon Impact Analytics differentiates 'high stakes' and 'low stakes' sectors, and provides specific insights for 'high stakes' sectors with tailored calculation principles for each sector. 'High stakes' sectors for which a detailed Carbon Impact analysis is performed are detailed. Aggregation at portfolio level eliminates emissions double-counting. Double-counting of GHG emissions arises when the same ton of GHG emissions is counted more than once within a portfolio due to the aggregation of companies' indirect

  11. Contribution of environmental factors to the risk of male infertility.

    Oliva, A; Spira, A; Multigner, L

    2001-08-01

    An increasing number of reports suggest that chemical and physical agents in the environment, introduced and spread by human activity, may affect male fertility in humans. We investigated the relationships between exposure to environmental agents and seminal characteristics, and the concentrations of reproductive hormones in the serum of men seeking infertility treatment. We studied 225 male partners from consecutively recruited couples, who had their first infertility consultation between 1995 and 1998, in the Litoral Sur region of Argentina, one of the most productive farming regions in the world. A multivariate logistic regression model showed that exposure to pesticides and solvents is significantly associated with sperm threshold values well below the limit for male fertility. We also found that men exposed to pesticides had higher serum oestradiol concentrations, and that men exposed to solvents had lower LH concentrations than non-exposed men. All of these effects were greater in men with primary infertility than in men with secondary infertility. We have shown that environmental factors contribute to the severity of infertility, and that this may worsen the effects of pre-existing genetic or medical risk factors.

  12. Rehabilitation Risk Management: Enabling Data Analytics with Quantified Self and Smart Home Data.

    Hamper, Andreas; Eigner, Isabella; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini; Bodendorf, Freimut

    2017-01-01

    A variety of acute and chronic diseases require rehabilitation at home after treatment. Outpatient rehabilitation is crucial for the quality of the medical outcome but is mainly performed without medical supervision. Non-Compliance can lead to severe health risks and readmission to the hospital. While the patient is closely monitored in the hospital, methods and technologies to identify risks at home have to be developed. We analyze state-of-the-art monitoring systems and technologies and show possibilities to transfer these technologies into rehabilitation monitoring. For this purpose, we analyze sensor technology from the field of Quantified Self and Smart Homes. The available sensor data from this consumer grade technology is summarized to give an overview of the possibilities for medical data analytics. Subsequently, we show a conceptual roadmap to transfer data analytics methods to sensor based rehabilitation risk management.

  13. PENENTUAN FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH DALAM FAULTY BEHAVIOR RISK MELALUI PENDEKATAN METODE FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    Rizal Irfan Fuadi

    2015-06-01

    rekomendasi untuk mengurangi risiko kesalahan perilaku kerja dengan meningkatkan perhatian terhadap kedua sub faktor tersebut. Untuk mengurangi risiko kesalahan perilaku dapat dilakukan dengan penelitian lebih lanjut mengenai sub faktor yang memiliki risiko tinggi sebagai penyebab kecelakaan.   Abstracts Safety management is defined as organization, human resources, policies and interactive procedure aims to reduce the possibility of damage and loss in the workplace. Therefore, one of way to improve safety management in company’s workshop is by doing research to determine factors affecting the faulty behavior risk. Generally, the factors affecting work system safety have non-physical structures. Therefore, the real problem can be represented in a better way by using fuzzy numbers instead of numbers to evaluate these factors. In this study, a fuzzy AHP approach is proposed to determine the level of faulty behavior risk in work systems. The process of determining factors which affect Faulty Behavior Risk (FBR starts on decision of respondent, creation of questionnaire, test on validation and realibility. The result concluded from questionnaire is used as input to process the data using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Method (FAHP. The questionnaire is created based on the concept of safety management system, consists of 4 factors: organizational factor, personal factor, work factor, and environmental factor. This  research  conducted at Bay 2.1 that produces  panel and Bay 7.1 that  produces  finning. The calculation of FBR on bay 2.1 shows that the result (0.4972 is lies on range of lower bound 0.25 and upper bound 0.50. Meanwhile, the calculation of FBR on bay 7.1 shows that the result (0.5317 is outside of upper bound, which means the risk of FBR is high. From the calculation result of FBR on bay 2.1, the highest sub-factor which contribute on FBR is insufficent preparation. Meanwhile, from the calculation of FBR on bay 7.1, the highest sub-factor which contribute on FBR is

  14. Bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) for coronary heart disease risk assessment.

    Sabahi, Farnaz

    2018-04-04

    Rooted deeply in medical multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), risk assessment is very important especially when applied to the risk of being affected by deadly diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD risk assessment is a stochastic, uncertain, and highly dynamic process influenced by various known and unknown variables. In recent years, there has been a great interest in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a popular methodology for dealing with uncertainty in MCDM. This paper proposes a new FAHP, bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) that augments two aspects of knowledge, probability and validity, to fuzzy numbers to better deal with uncertainty. In BFAHP, fuzzy validity is computed by aggregating the validities of relevant risk factors based on expert knowledge and collective intelligence. By considering both soft and statistical data, we compute the fuzzy probability of risk factors using the Bayesian formulation. In BFAHP approach, these fuzzy validities and fuzzy probabilities are used to construct a reciprocal comparison matrix. We then aggregate fuzzy probabilities and fuzzy validities in a pairwise manner for each risk factor and each alternative. BFAHP decides about being affected and not being affected by ranking of high and low risks. For evaluation, the proposed approach is applied to the risk of being affected by CHD using a real dataset of 152 patients of Iranian hospitals. Simulation results confirm that adding validity in a fuzzy manner can accrue more confidence of results and clinically useful especially in the face of incomplete information when compared with actual results. Applying the proposed BFAHP on CHD risk assessment of the dataset, it yields high accuracy rate above 85% for correct prediction. In addition, this paper recognizes that the risk factors of diastolic blood pressure in men and high-density lipoprotein in women are more important in CHD than other risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All

  15. Advancing the Contribution of Occupational Epidemiology to Risk Assessment

    Vlaanderen, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The identification and quantification of risk factors that are characterized by low exposure levels, moderately increased risks, and unspecific exposure-disease relations is a major challenge facing risk assessment today. Occupational epidemiological studies can play a role in addressing this

  16. Recent Development in Big Data Analytics for Business Operations and Risk Management.

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Chan, Hing Kai; Yue, Xiaohang

    2017-01-01

    "Big data" is an emerging topic and has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in industrial systems engineering and cybernetics. Big data analytics would definitely lead to valuable knowledge for many organizations. Business operations and risk management can be a beneficiary as there are many data collection channels in the related industrial systems (e.g., wireless sensor networks, Internet-based systems, etc.). Big data research, however, is still in its infancy. Its focus is rather unclear and related studies are not well amalgamated. This paper aims to present the challenges and opportunities of big data analytics in this unique application domain. Technological development and advances for industrial-based business systems, reliability and security of industrial systems, and their operational risk management are examined. Important areas for future research are also discussed and revealed.

  17. Contribution of Spaceflight Environmental Factors to Vision Risks

    Zanello, Susana B.

    2011-01-01

    The risk of visual impairment and elevated intracranial pressure as a result of low-earth orbit microgravity exposure has directed our attention and research efforts to the eye. While the alterations observed in astronauts returning from long duration missions include vision and neuroanatomical changes observed by non-invasive methods, other effects and subsequent tissue responses at the molecular and cellular level can only be studied by accessing the tissue itself. As a result of this need, several studies are currently taking place within the Human and Health Countermeasures Element (HHC) that use animal models for eye research. The rodent eye has many similarities to the human eye, and both rats and mice have historically been used as models of human eye disease, aiding in the identification of the disease genes, elucidation of mechanisms of disease, as well as in the assessment of therapeutic treatments. These studies attempt to answer two central questions in the etiology of possible vision alterations in the environment of space exploration missions. The first is: what effects and response mechanisms take place in the different eye structures at the cellular and molecular level? The second question is directed to elucidate the contribution of the various environmental stressors (radiation, nutrition, fluid shift) to these effects. Collaborative approaches with internal and external investigators have allowed performing these studies in a most cost-effective fashion, providing preliminary data and laying the bases for testing further hypotheses in future and specifically designed animal experiments. From a study centered on the radioadaptive response in mice, we have learned that the retina responds to low and high dose gamma radiation by elevating antioxidant-related genes at early time points (4hrs) and that this response returns to control levels after 1 day post-irradiation. We are expanding this research with another collaborative study that investigates

  18. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  19. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prioritization of chemicals in the aquatic environment based on risk assessment: analytical, modeling and regulatory perspective.

    Guillén, D; Ginebreda, A; Farré, M; Darbra, R M; Petrovic, M; Gros, M; Barceló, D

    2012-12-01

    The extensive and intensive use of chemicals in our developed, highly technological society includes more than 100,000 chemical substances. Significant scientific evidence has lead to the recognition that their improper use and release may result in undesirable and harmful side-effects on both the human and ecosystem health. To cope with them, appropriate risk assessment processes and related prioritization schemes have been developed in order to provide the necessary scientific support for regulatory procedures. In the present paper, two of the elements that constitute the core of risk assessment, namely occurrence and hazard effects, have been discussed. Recent advances in analytical chemistry (sample pre-treatment and instrumental equipment, etc.) have allowed for more comprehensive monitoring of environmental pollution reaching limits of detection up to sub ng L(-1). Alternative to analytical measurements, occurrence models can provide risk managers with a very interesting approach for estimating environmental concentrations from real or hypothetical scenarios. The most representative prioritization schemes used for issuing lists of concerning chemicals have also been examined and put in the context of existing environmental policies for protection strategies and regulations. Finally, new challenges in the field of risk-assessment have been outlined, including those posed by new materials (i.e., nanomaterials), transformation products, multi-chemical exposure, or extension of the risk assessment process to the whole ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk assessment of occupational groups working in open pit mining: Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Yaşar Kasap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In open pit mining it is possible to prevent industrial accidents and the results of industrial accidents such as deaths, physical disabilities and financial loss by implementing risk analyses in advance. If the probabilities of different occupational groups encountering various hazards are determined, workers’ risk of having industrial accidents and catching occupational illnesses can be controlled. In this sense, the aim of this study was to assess the industrial accidents which occurred during open pit coal production in the Turkish Coal Enterprises (TCE Garp Lignite unit between 2005 and 2010 and to analyze the risks using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. The analyses conducted with AHP revealed that the greatest risk in open pit mining is landslides, the most risky occupational group is unskilled labourers and the most common hazards are caused by landslides and transportation/hand tools/falling.

  2. An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management

    Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    There is increasing interest for agencies and industries to develop risk management processes for a wide variety of applications. Traditional risk management processes are motivated by controlling risk and avoiding losses. In contrast, other organizational processes focus on managing performance and value generation. In this paper we argue that risk management also adds an important contribution to these processes. However, this requires “proper” risk management extending beyond narrow safety oriented perspectives built on quantitative risk analysis and tolerability/acceptance criteria. There is need for a broad risk-performance framework with uncertainty being a main component of risk, and where knowledge and surprises are adequately reflected. In the paper we present and discuss such a framework. The framework is developed on the basis of an analysis of combinations of different risk management and performance management practices/policies. We show how the risk and performance management processes can be improved by proper risk conceptualization and a holistic thinking on how to develop and use goals in the organization, how to balance different concerns, and consider the need for agility – “sensitivity to operations”, as well as how to give weight to vulnerabilities, resilience, and antifragility. - Highlights: • We relate key performance management and risk management principles. • We propose an enhanced framework to unify thinking of performance and risk. • We apply the framework to a public-private partnership case study.

  3. Risk sharing, public policy and the contribution of Islamic finance

    Hossein Askari

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A major reason for the recurrent episodes of financial instability is the predominance of interest-based debt and leveraging. Financial stability is achievable through risk sharing finance instead of risk shifting that characterizes contemporary finance. A risk sharing system serves the true function of finance as facilitator of real sector activities and avoids the emergence of a “paper economy” where there is gradual decoupling of finance from the real sector. Islamic finance was initially proposed as a profit-loss sharing system, but its core principle is risk sharing. In prohibiting interest-based debt instruments, Islam grounds finance on a strong risk sharing footing. Although still a young industry that has come a long way, it has not managed to develop truly risk-sharing instruments that would allow individuals, households, and firms as well as whole economies to mitigate systematic and un-systematic risks. It is suggested that governments should intervene and issue macro-market instruments to provide their treasuries with a significant source of non-interest rate based financing while promoting risk sharing. Moreover, given that evidence across the world suggests that monetary policy’s transmission mechanism may be impaired, it is suggested that these government issued securities could also impart added potency to monetary policy.

  4. Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

    Briggs, Charles Awoala

    For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most

  5. Estimated risk contribution for dry spent fuel storage cask

    Santos, C.; Kirk, M.T.; Abramson, L.; Guttmann, J.; Hackett, E.; Simonen, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is pursuing means to risk-inform its regulations and programs for dry storage of spent nuclear fuel. In pursuit of this objective, the NRC will develop safety goals and probabilistic risk assessments for implementing risk-informed programs. This paper provides one example method for calculating the risk of a dry spent fuel storage cask under normal and accident conditions. The example is on the HI-STORM 100 cask at a proposed site containing four thousand such casks. The paper evaluates the risk to the public by determining the likelihood a welded stainless steel container will leak. In addition, the study addresses the risk at a site where 4,000 casks may be stored until the U.S. Department of Energy accepts the casks for placement in a repository. The methods used employ the PRODIGAL computer code to assess the probability of a faulty weld on a stainless steel-welded canister. These analyses are only the initial stages of a comprehensive risk study that the NRC is performing in support of its regulatory initiatives. (author)

  6. Mort User's Manual: For use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  7. Contributions for territorial management of risks associated with oil activity

    Felipe Pinto Gonçalves

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Whereas that the growing complexity of technical and spatial organization of the oil activity in Espírito Santo state gives new demands for land use management to the local governments, this article addresses the issue of economic and technological risks associated with such activities. Based on the evaluation of legal instruments such as the classification of land uses and the zoning, are discussed the possibilities of insertion the risks in municipal policies for land use planning

  8. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  9. A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

    Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

    2018-01-01

    One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

  10. Dietary habits contributing to breast cancer risk among Iranian women.

    Mobarakeh, Zahra Sheikhi; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Hatmi, Nadia; Ebrahimi, Mandana; Dabiran, Sohaila; Sotoudeh, Gity

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate demographic features, dietary habits, and some possible risk factors for being susceptible to breast cancer in Iranian women. A study of dietary habits and breast cancer was conducted among 53 Iranian women with histological confirmed disease and 40 matched controls. A dietary habits questionnaire was used to evaluate the pattern of selected food intakes. The risk of cancer was analyzed after adjustment for confounding factors. Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, educational status, parity, lactation, marital status, menopause, history of estrogen therapy, and family history of breast disease or cancer were assessed among participants. Special attention was given to the relationship between consumption of high fat meat, milk, yogurt and cheese as well use of frying oils for frying foods, use of olive/liquid oils for cooking, removing fat from meat and poultry, removing chicken skin and not use of mayonnaise as salad dressing and the risk of breast cancer. Moreover, salad, vegetable and fruit consumption, and eating outdoors owere investigated. Our results revealed significant lower education and higher BMI and waist circumference levels in patients with breast cancer. There was significantly increased breast cancer risk in overweight women in comparison with normal weight (OR=2.91, 95%CI 1.24 to 6.82). High intake of fat dairy products including milk and cheese was found to be a statistically significant factor for increasing breast cancer risk in models adjusting for age, BMI and education. Use of olive/liquid oils for cooking and avoidance of mayonnaise as salad dressing are related to lower risk of breast cancer. The frequency of vegetable and fruit consumption was significantly lower in patients with breast cancer compared to healthy women. Dietary habits might be risk factors for breast cancer among Iranian women. Adoption of a prudent diet could be an appropriate strategy for preventing breast

  11. Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

    Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

  12. The contribution of inspection to the management of risk

    Baron, J. [Folville Consulting Inc., Ontario (Canada)

    2016-01-15

    Over the recent several years, the nuclear power industry has moved to designing in-service inspection programs based on plant risk analyses. This has led to significant reduction in the amount of inspections required thereby reducing the cost of the inspection process itself but, more significantly, the cost due to plant downtime. Inspection has no impact on the consequence of failure but, rather, mitigates risk through reduction in the probability of failure. In so doing, it is important to consider the reliability of inspections, how reliability may be improved through deployment of automation but consideration must also be given to human factors with respect to achieving and reporting correct results. (author)

  13. Interleukin-17 Gene Polymorphisms Contribute to Cancer Risk

    Yu-Ming Niu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies have suggested that interleukin-17 (IL-17 polymorphisms are associated with cancer risk. However, the results of these studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to obtain a precise conclusion. Odds ratios (ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were used to assess the association of the IL-17A rs2275913G>A and IL-17F rs763780T>C polymorphisms with cancer risk. Publication bias and sensitivity analyses were performed to ensure the statistical power. Overall, 10 relevant case-control studies involving 4,516 cases and 5,645 controls were included. The pooled ORs with 95% CIs indicated that the IL-17A rs2275913G>A polymorphism was significantly associated with increased cancer risk (for A versus G: OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.16–1.41, PC polymorphism was also significantly associated with gastric cancer development. Overall, the present meta-analysis suggests that IL-17 polymorphisms increase the risk of developing cancer, particularly gastric cancer, in the Asian (and Chinese population.

  14. Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

    Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

  15. Prevalence of risk factors for stuttering among boys: analytical cross-sectional study

    Cristiane Moço Canhetti Oliveira

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:There have been few studies on the risk factors for subgroups of stuttering. The aim of this study was to characterize the risk factors for developmental familial stuttering among boys who stutter and who do not stutter, such as disfluency types, associated quality and communication factors, emotional and physical stress, familial attitudes and personal reactions.DESIGN AND SETTING:Analytical cross-sectional study with a control group, performed at the Fluency Studies Laboratory of the Department of Speech and Hearing Disorders of a public university.METHODS: The parents of 40 age-matched stuttering and non-stuttering boys took part in this study. The participants were divided into two groups: stuttering children (SC and non-stuttering children (NSC, with ages between 6 years 0 months and 11 years 11 months. Initially, all of the participants underwent a fluency assessment and then data were gathered using the Protocol for the Risk of Developmental Stuttering.RESULTS:There were no differences in the physical stress distribution factors and personal reactions between the groups. Inappropriate familial attitudes were presented by 95% of the SC and 30% of the NSC. Four risk factors analyzed were not shown by the NSC, namely stuttering-like disfluency, quality factors, physical stress and emotional stresses.CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that the presence of stuttering-like disfluency, associated quality and communication factors, emotional stress and inappropriate family attitudes are important risk factors for familial developmental stuttering among boys.

  16. Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

    Nevidimova, O G; Yankovich, E P; Yankovich, K S

    2015-01-01

    Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved

  17. Contribution to the study of ionizing radiation ecological risks

    Barc, R.M.

    1977-01-01

    The amount of artificial irradiation delivered to man and the contribution due to medical applications are determined. The running of nuclear power stations is then analyzed, with special reference to problems concerning the reliability of different types of reactor, and an attempt made to implicate the irradiation attributed to nuclear industry as a whole and the effects produced on the environment. Lastly the effects of these ionizing radiations at low doses is examined. In the artificial radioactivity to which man is subjected (122 millirems a year) the contribution of X-rays is 103 millirems a year as against 3 millirems a year for nuclear industry, though it should be remembered that the majority of medical irradiation is the lot of a minority. According to the C.R.E.D.O.C., 75% of the radiological consumption is due to 20% of the population. These values lie below the M.A.D. values determined by the I.C.R.P. Irradiation from nuclear industry is still slight, but some reserves are expressed. No account is taken of the increasing build-up of certain very long-lived radioelements (plutonium 25000 years). Measurements provided on the contamination of the environment are inaccurate. Imprecision of the measurement methods and lack of knowledge of the concentration factor lead to neglect of this type of internal contamination through the food chain in spite of its apparent importance. For low-dose effects the arguments put forward are contradictory, optimistic on one side and pessimistic on the other. The proofs supplied by aggressive opponents of the improper use of ionizing radiations are disturbing: carcinogenesis, genetic damage etc. [fr

  18. Can Google Trends search queries contribute to risk diversification?

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2013-01-01

    Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The diversification is based on an idea that popularity of a stock measured by search queries is correlated with the stock riskiness. We penalize the popular stocks by assigning them lower portfolio weights and we bring forward the less popular, or peripheral, stocks to decrease the total riskiness of the portfolio. Our results indicate that such strategy dominates both the benchmark index and the uniformly weighted portfolio both in-sample and out-of-sample.

  19. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  20. Contributions of radiochemistry and nuclear analytical techniques to society and technology: some examples of 35 years’ experience in Delft

    Bode, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Budget cuts and the oscillating public debates on the benefits of nuclear research reactor facilities are a continuous threat to many nuclear institutions. University affiliated institutions often face additional problems if their facilities offer sufficient scientific challenge and if an education in nuclear sciences provide students a sound outlook for a professional career. Such discussions may be an excuse for non-fulfilment of vacancies and reduced priority in the academic curriculum. Universities tend to reallocate their funds to more contemporary sciences such as molecular biology and nanotechnology. Their choices are based on relevance, quality viability and productivity. Relevance is often measured on the basis of external funding of research programs as well as on career opportunities for students. However, the areas with opportunities for external funding are largely determined by socio-economic developments, sometimes even at the (inter)national political level. The thematic areas in the scientific Framework Programs of the European Union illustrate this. The relevance and viability of an expensive facility like a nuclear reactor centre can also be demonstrated by making the facilities available to provide measurements on request by outsiders. Ideally, such services should be sustainable, but even the existence may lead to consider the centre being of regional or national importance. Nuclear reactor centres have various options for such services, like production of radionuclides; neutron transmutation doping; neutron activation analysis; neutron radiography and others. This contribution gives examples of the typical analytical services provided by the Interuniversity Reactor Institute of the Delft University of Technology. This institute houses the only university research reactor in the Netherlands, a 2 MW swimming pool reactor, with associated facilities for neutron research, neutron activation and radiochemistry. Within the services provided by the

  1. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  2. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  3. Analytic structure of the n=7 scattering amplitude in N=4 SYM theory in multi-Regge kinematics. Conformal Regge cut contribution

    Bartels, Jochen; Kormilitzin, Andrey; Oxford Univ.; Lipatov, Lev N.; Oxford Univ.; St. Petersburg State Univ.

    2014-11-01

    In this second part of our investigation of the analytic structure of the 2→5 scattering amplitude in the planar limit of N=4 SYM in multi-Regge kinematics we compute, in all kinematic regions, the Regge cut contributions in leading order. The results are infrared finite and conformally invariant.

  4. Analytical Hierarchy Process modeling for malaria risk zones in Vadodara district, Gujarat

    Bhatt, B.; Joshi, J. P.

    2014-11-01

    Malaria epidemic is one of the complex spatial problems around the world. According to WHO, an estimated 6, 27, 000 deaths occurred due to malaria in 2012. In many developing nations with diverse ecological regions, it is still a large cause of human mortality. Owing to the incompleteness of epidemiological data and their spatial origin, the quantification of disease incidence burdening basic public health planning is a major constrain especially in developing countries. The present study focuses on the integrated Geospatial and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (AHP) technique to determine malaria risk zones. The study is conducted in Vadodara district, including 12 Taluka among which 4 Taluka are predominantly tribal. The influence of climatic and physical environmental factors viz., rainfall, hydro geomorphology; drainage, elevation, and land cover are used to score their share in the evaluation of malariogenic condition. This was synthesized on the basis of preference over each factor and the total weights of each data and data layer were computed and visualized. The district was divided into three viz., high, moderate and low risk zones .It was observed that a geographical area of 1885.2sq.km comprising 30.3% fall in high risk zone. The risk zones identified on the basis of these parameters and assigned weights shows a close resemblance with ground condition. As the API distribution for 2011overlaid corresponds to the risk zones identified. The study demonstrates the significance and prospect of integrating Geospatial tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process for malaria risk zones and dynamics of malaria transmission.

  5. Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

    Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

    2018-03-12

    Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. What Is Trust? Ethics and Risk Governance in Precision Medicine and Predictive Analytics.

    Adjekum, Afua; Ienca, Marcello; Vayena, Effy

    2017-12-01

    Trust is a ubiquitous term used in emerging technology (e.g., Big Data, precision medicine), innovation policy, and governance literatures in particular. But what exactly is trust? Even though trust is considered a critical requirement for the successful deployment of precision medicine initiatives, nonetheless, there is a need for further conceptualization with regard to what qualifies as trust, and what factors might establish and sustain trust in precision medicine, predictive analytics, and large-scale biology. These new fields of 21st century medicine and health often deal with the "futures" and hence, trust gains a temporal and ever-present quality for both the present and the futures anticipated by new technologies and predictive analytics. We address these conceptual gaps that have important practical implications in the way we govern risk and unknowns associated with emerging technologies in biology, medicine, and health broadly. We provide an in-depth conceptual analysis and an operative definition of trust dynamics in precision medicine. In addition, we identify three main types of "trust facilitators": (1) technical, (2) ethical, and (3) institutional. This three-dimensional framework on trust is necessary to building and maintaining trust in 21st century knowledge-based innovations that governments and publics invest for progressive societal change, development, and sustainable prosperity. Importantly, we analyze, identify, and deliberate on the dimensions of precision medicine and large-scale biology that have carved out trust as a pertinent tool to its success. Moving forward, we propose a "points to consider" on how best to enhance trust in precision medicine and predictive analytics.

  7. Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

    2015-03-01

    Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  9. Computational red teaming risk analytics of big-data-to-decisions intelligent systems

    Abbass, Hussein A

    2015-01-01

    Written to bridge the information needs of management and computational scientists, this book presents the first comprehensive treatment of Computational Red Teaming (CRT).  The author describes an analytics environment that blends human reasoning and computational modeling to design risk-aware and evidence-based smart decision making systems. He presents the Shadow CRT Machine, which shadows the operations of an actual system to think with decision makers, challenge threats, and design remedies. This is the first book to generalize red teaming (RT) outside the military and security domains and it offers coverage of RT principles, practical and ethical guidelines. The author utilizes Gilbert’s principles for introducing a science. Simplicity: where the book follows a special style to make it accessible to a wide range of  readers. Coherence:  where only necessary elements from experimentation, optimization, simulation, data mining, big data, cognitive information processing, and system thinking are blend...

  10. Analytic Bayesian solution of the two-stage poisson-type problem in probabilistic risk analysis

    Frohner, F.H.

    1985-01-01

    The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probabilty implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data

  11. The contribution of classical risk factors to cardiovascular disease in familial hypercholesterolaemia: data in 2400 patients

    Jansen, A. C. M.; van Aalst-Cohen, E. S.; Tanck, M. W.; Trip, M. D.; Lansberg, P. J.; Liem, A. H.; van Lennep, H. W. O. Roeters; Sijbrands, E. J. G.; Kastelein, J. J. P.

    2004-01-01

    Objective. To determine the contribution of classical risk factors to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH). Design. A retrospective, multi-centre, cohort study. Extensive data were collected by scrutinizing medical records

  12. An audit of the contribution to post-mortem examination diagnosis of individual analyte results obtained from biochemical analysis of the vitreous.

    Mitchell, Rebecca; Charlwood, Cheryl; Thomas, Sunethra Devika; Bellis, Maria; Langlois, Neil E I

    2013-12-01

    Biochemical analysis of the vitreous humor from the eye is an accepted accessory test for post-mortem investigation of cause of death. Modern biochemical analyzers allow testing of a range of analytes from a sample. However, it is not clear which analytes should be requested in order to prevent unnecessary testing (and expense). The means and standard deviation of the values obtained from analysis of the vitreous humor for sodium, potassium, chloride, osmolality, glucose, ketones (β-hydroxybutyrate), creatinine, urea, calcium, lactate, and ammonia were calculated from which the contribution of each analyte was reviewed in the context of post-mortem findings and final cause of death. For sodium 32 cases were regarded as high (more than one standard deviation above the mean), from which 9 contributed to post-mortem diagnosis [drowning (4), heat related death (2), diabetic hyperglycemia (2), and dehydration (1)], but 25 low values (greater than one standard deviation below the mean) made no contribution. For chloride 29 high values contributed to 4 cases--3 drowning and 1 heat-related, but these were all previously identified by a high sodium level. There were 29 high and 35 low potassium values, none of which contributed to determining the final cause of death. Of 22 high values of creatinine, 12 contributed to a diagnosis of renal failure. From 32 high values of urea, 18 contributed to 16 cases of renal failure (2 associated with diabetic hyperglycemia), 1 heat-related death, and one case with dehydration. Osmolarity contributed to 12 cases (5 heat-related, 4 diabetes, 2 renal failure, and 1 dehydration) from 36 high values. There was no contribution from 32 high values and 19 low values of calcium and there was no contribution from 4 high and 2 low values of ammonia. There were 11 high values of glucose, which contributed to the diagnosis of 6 cases of diabetic hyperglycemia and 21 high ketone levels contributed to 8 cases: 4 diabetic ketosis, 3 hypothermia, 3

  13. Food risk perceptions, gender, and individual differences in avoidance and approach motivation, intuitive and analytic thinking styles, and anxiety.

    Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina; Lähteenmäki, Liisa

    2007-03-01

    Risks appear to be perceived in two different ways, affectively and rationally. Finnish adult internet users were contacted via e-mail and asked to fill an internet questionnaire consisting of questions of food risks and measures of avoidance and approach motivation, analytic and intuitive information processing style, trait anxiety, and gender in order to find out (1) whether food risks are perceived two-dimensionally, (2) how individual differences in motivation, information processing, and anxiety are associated with the different dimensions of food risk perceptions, and (3) whether gender moderates these associations. The data were analyzed by factor, correlation and regression analyses. Three factors emerged: risk scariness, risk likelihood, and risks of cardiovascular disease. Personality and gender x personality interactions predicted food risk perceptions. Results showed that food risk perceptions generally form two dimensions; scariness and likelihood, but that this may depend on the nature of the risk. In addition, results imply that individuals with high avoidance motivation perceive food risks as scarier and more likely than others, and that individuals with an analytic information processing style perceive food risks as less likely than others. Trait anxiety seems to be associated with higher food risk perceptions only among men.

  14. Jung in education: a review of historical and contemporary contributions from analytical psychology to the field of education.

    Gitz-Johansen, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The available literature on the influence of Jungian thought on the theory and practice of education leaves the impression that although the work of Carl Jung and analytical psychology have much to offer the field of education, the Jungian influence has so far been slight. While this has certainly been true, the last decade or so has nevertheless witnessed an increased scholarly interest in exploring how analytical psychology may inform and inspire the field of education. As an explanation for this burgeoning interest in Jung, several of the contemporary contributors mention that analytical psychology has the potential of functioning as a counterbalance to the tendencies in Western societies to focus on measurable learning targets and increasingly standardized measures of teaching and assessment. It seems pertinent then to gain an overview of how analytical psychology has so far inspired the field of education and how it may fruitfully continue do so in the future. To this end this paper is structured chronologically, starting with the different phases of Jung's own engagement with the field of education and ending with later post-Jungian applications of his concepts and ideas to education. © 2016, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

  15. Early formula feeding practices and their potential contribution to later obesity risk

    Tarrant, R C

    2013-01-02

    Background and Aims: Early feeding practices, including early introduction to solid foods and overfeeding, are known risk factors for childhood obesity. This study aimed to assess maternal formula feeding practices and infant formula feeding patterns, factors that are known to potentially contribute to later obesity risk. \\r\

  16. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk

  17. Risk-informed Analytical Approaches to Concentration Averaging for the Purpose of Waste Classification

    Esh, D.W.; Pinkston, K.E.; Barr, C.S.; Bradford, A.H.; Ridge, A.Ch.

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a concentration averaging approach and guidance for the review of Department of Energy (DOE) non-HLW determinations. Although the approach was focused on this specific application, concentration averaging is generally applicable to waste classification and thus has implications for waste management decisions as discussed in more detail in this paper. In the United States, radioactive waste has historically been classified into various categories for the purpose of ensuring that the disposal system selected is commensurate with the hazard of the waste such that public health and safety will be protected. However, the risk from the near-surface disposal of radioactive waste is not solely a function of waste concentration but is also a function of the volume (quantity) of waste and its accessibility. A risk-informed approach to waste classification for near-surface disposal of low-level waste would consider the specific characteristics of the waste, the quantity of material, and the disposal system features that limit accessibility to the waste. NRC staff has developed example analytical approaches to estimate waste concentration, and therefore waste classification, for waste disposed in facilities or with configurations that were not anticipated when the regulation for the disposal of commercial low-level waste (i.e. 10 CFR Part 61) was developed. (authors)

  18. The contribution of transport to the overall risk of nuclear energy

    Huebenthal, K.

    1985-01-01

    The overall risk of nuclear energy is minute as compared with other natural and civilization-effected risks. The contribution of the transport of radioactive materials to this overall risk is not significant. The paper touches the following subjects: Project Safety Studies of Waste Management (PSE), System Studies Alternative Waste Disposal Technologies (PAE), Motor Columbus and the Federal Gazette 10/2160 of October 1984. Collective doses of the population are given for the fuel cycle with various waste management technologies. (DG) [de

  19. Contribution of CNESTEN to the developpement of analytical nuclear and conventional technic and their applications to the environment

    Bounakhla, M.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In CNESTEN (National Center for Energy Sciences and Nuclear Techniques), the NAA is considered a main activity to be developed around the reactor Triga Mark 2 (2 MW) of CEN (Center for Nuclear Studies ) of Maamoura. This method allows determining 40 to 50 elements, many of them affect the environment (antimony, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, mercury, selenium, etc. ...). It also allows the determination of important elements such as sodium, chlorine and potassium, and many lanthanides. It presents many advantages and is applied in various areas, however, and as it is the case for any analysis method, it has analytical limits. To supplement this method and then allowing to cover a range analytical widest possible in various matrices, CNESTEN has already installed 4 analytical techniques: fluorescence-X Energy Dispersive (ED-XRF), fluorescence-X dispersion wavelength (WD-XRF), SAA and PCI-SEO. For the AAN, the AAN instrumental is already operational while the technique based on the Prompt Gammas is being developed with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Using reactors of Pierre Sue Laboratories (Saclay) in France and Jozef Stefan Institute in Slovenia for the AAN and analytical techniques available in CNESTEN and in partner universities in France and Spain, many projects and studies research has been realized in the field of environment and geochemistry, that is in collaboration with national and/or foreign partners [fr

  20. Analytic structure of the n=7 scattering amplitude in N=4 SYM theory at multi-Regge kinematics. Conformal Regge pole contribution

    Bartels, Jochen; Kormilitzin, Andrey [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Lipatov, Lev [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; St. Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-15

    We investigate the analytic structure of the 2 {yields} 5 scattering amplitude in the planar limit of N=4 SYM in multi-Regge kinematics in all physical regions. We demonstrate the close connection between Regge pole and Regge cut contributions: in a selected class of kinematic regions (Mandelstam regions) the usual factorizing Regge pole formula develops unphysical singularities which have to be absorbed and compensated by Regge cut contributions. This leads, in the corrections to the BDS formula, to conformal invariant 'renormalized' Regge pole expressions in the remainder function. We compute these renormalized Regge poles for the 2 {yields} 5 scattering amplitude.

  1. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  2. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  3. Learning Analytics at Low Cost: At-Risk Student Prediction with Clicker Data and Systematic Proactive Interventions

    Choi, Samuel P. M.; Lam, S. S.; Li, Kam Cheong; Wong, Billy T. M.

    2018-01-01

    While learning analytics (LA) practices have been shown to be practical and effective, most of them require a huge amount of data and effort. This paper reports a case study which demonstrates the feasibility of practising LA at a low cost for instructors to identify at-risk students in an undergraduate business quantitative methods course.…

  4. Interconnected Risk Contributions: A Heavy-Tail Approach to Analyze U.S. Financial Sectors

    Mauro Bernardi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among U.S. banks, financial services and insurance sectors. Life and non-life insurers have been considered separately to account for their different characteristics. The tail risk interdependence measurement framework relies on the multivariate Student-t Markov switching (MS model and the multiple-conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR (conditional expected shortfall (CoES risk measures introduced in Bernardi et al. (2013, accounting for both the stylized facts of financial data and the contemporaneous multiple joint distress events. The Shapley value methodology is then applied to compose the puzzle of individual risk attributions, providing a synthetic measure of tail interdependence. Our empirical investigation finds that banks appear to contribute more to the tail risk evolution of all of the remaining sectors, followed by the financial services and the insurance sectors, showing that the insurance sector significantly contributes as well to the overall risk. We also find that the role of each sector in contributing to other sectors’ distress evolves over time according to the current predominant financial condition, implying different interdependence strength.

  5. Risk assessment using Analytical Hierarchy Process - Development and evaluation of a new computer-based tool; Riskvaerdering med Analytical Hierarchy Process - Utveckling och utprovning av ett nytt datorbaserat verktyg

    Ritchey, Tom (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    Risk analysis concerning the management of contaminated areas involves comparing and evaluating the relationship between ecological, technical, economic and other factors, in order to determine a reasonable level of remediation. Risk analysis of this kind is a relatively new phenomenon. In order to develop methodology in this area, the Sustainable Remediation program contributes both to comprehensive risk analysis projects and to projects concentrating on specific aspects of remediation risk analysis. In the project described in this report, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) was given a grant by the Sustainable Remediation program to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to develop a computer-aided instrument to support remediation risk analysis. AHP is one of several so-called multi-criteria decision support methods. These methods are applied in order to systematically compare and evaluate different solutions or measures, when there are many different goal criteria involved. Such criteria can be both quantitative and qualitative. The project has resulted in the development of a computer-aided instrument which can be employed to give a better structure, consistency and traceability to risk analyses for the remediation of contaminated areas. Project was carried out in two phases with two different working groups. The first phase involved the development of a generic base-model for remediation risk analysis. This was performed by a 'development group'. The second phase entailed the testing of the generic model in a specific, on-going remediation project. This was performed by a 'test group'. The remediation project in question concerned the decontamination of a closed-down sawmill in Vaeckelsaang, in the Swedish municipality of Tingsryd

  6. From risk perception to social trust: an outline of recent contributions of psychology to risk management

    Earle, T.C.

    2002-01-01

    As with many developing areas of inquiry, the psychology of risk management has progressed from an initial focus on proximal effects to an exploration of more stable distal factors, from risk perception to social trust. Risk perception is concerned with disruptions in the relations between individuals and their physical environments, specifically with the varying negative effects experienced by individuals. These effects have been found to be socially constructed, with systematic variations among groups (e.g., lay-person and experts; among various groups of experts; men and women; those with economic interests and those without; etc.). The focus of risk perception research has shifted over time: from the likelihood of specific health effects; to the likelihood of a wide range of effects, including emotional effects, varying with context; and, finally, to general emotional effects, positive and negative affect. This shift can be seen to be from cognitive/rational to affective; from expert/technical to public. The second stage of inquiry moved away from the surface effects of risk perception to the study of confidence. Confidence is concerned with constancy, the underlying, not directly experienced order of the relations between individuals and their social/physical environments. Disruptions in confidence lead to concern with risk. Initially, confidence was said to be based on past performance and systems of control, objectively defined; the appropriate response to disruptions was risk communication, the provision of correct information. Failures in risk communication indicated that confidence must be based on subjective judgements of past performance and systems of control. The third, and present, stage of inquiry moved back from confidence, and from the physical environment, to the study of social trust. Social trust is concerned with the relations between individuals within social groups. Individuals tend to trust others whom they judge to be similar to themselves

  7. Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

    Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

  8. Quantifying the contributions of behavioral and biological risk factors to socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease incidence: the MORGEN study

    Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Droomers, Mariël; Robinson, Whitney R.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W. M. Monique

    2013-01-01

    Quantifying the impact of different modifiable behavioral and biological risk factors on socioeconomic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) may help inform targeted, population-specific strategies to reduce the unequal distribution of the disease. Previous studies have used analytic

  9. An analytic model for the electrostatic contribution of the electron cloud to the vertical tune-shift

    Schaechter, Levi

    2008-01-01

    An analytic quasi-static model is developed for the analysis of the tune-shift associated with the presence of an electron cloud in a damping ring. The essential assumption is that in its direction of motion, a bunch experiences a uniform cloud density but the latter varies from one bunch to another. A second important component of the model is the life-time since it controls the build-up, the equilibrium as well as the decay of the cloud. It is demonstrated analytically that in case of a train of positron bunches, electrons may be trapped in the vertical direction for the entire train duration. Assuming that the ring is dominated by vertical magnetic fields due to either bends or wigglers, we found excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results reported at Cornell Electron/Positron Storage Ring. The ratio between the vertical and horizontal tune-shifts is shown to be indicative of the distribution of the cloud in the beam-chamber

  10. Development of risk taking: contributions from adolescent testosterone and the orbito-frontal cortex.

    Peper, Jiska S; Koolschijn, P Cédric M P; Crone, Eveline A

    2013-12-01

    The role of puberty in the development of risk taking remains poorly understood. Here, in a normative sample of 268 participants between 8 and 25 years old, we applied a psycho-endocrine neuroimaging approach to investigate the contribution of testosterone levels and OFC morphology to individual differences in risk taking. Risk taking was measured with the balloon analogue risk-taking task. We found that, corrected for age, higher endogenous testosterone level was related to increased risk taking in boys (more explosions) and girls (more money earned). In addition, a smaller medial OFC volume in boys and larger OFC surface area in girls related to more risk taking. A mediation analysis indicated that OFC morphology partly mediates the association between testosterone level and risk taking, independent of age. Mediation was found in such a way that a smaller medial OFC in boys potentiates the association between testosterone and risk taking but suppresses the association in girls. This study provides insights into endocrinological and neural underpinnings of normative development of risk taking, by indicating that OFC morphology, at least partly, mediates the association between testosterone and risk-taking behavior.

  11. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  12. Real-time determination of critical quality attributes using near-infrared spectroscopy: a contribution for Process Analytical Technology (PAT).

    Rosas, Juan G; Blanco, Marcel; González, Josep M; Alcalà, Manel

    2012-08-15

    Process Analytical Technology (PAT) is playing a central role in current regulations on pharmaceutical production processes. Proper understanding of all operations and variables connecting the raw materials to end products is one of the keys to ensuring quality of the products and continuous improvement in their production. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been successfully used to develop faster and non-invasive quantitative methods for real-time predicting critical quality attributes (CQA) of pharmaceutical granulates (API content, pH, moisture, flowability, angle of repose and particle size). NIR spectra have been acquired from the bin blender after granulation process in a non-classified area without the need of sample withdrawal. The methodology used for data acquisition, calibration modelling and method application in this context is relatively inexpensive and can be easily implemented by most pharmaceutical laboratories. For this purpose, Partial Least-Squares (PLS) algorithm was used to calculate multivariate calibration models, that provided acceptable Root Mean Square Error of Predictions (RMSEP) values (RMSEP(API)=1.0 mg/g; RMSEP(pH)=0.1; RMSEP(Moisture)=0.1%; RMSEP(Flowability)=0.6 g/s; RMSEP(Angle of repose)=1.7° and RMSEP(Particle size)=2.5%) that allowed the application for routine analyses of production batches. The proposed method affords quality assessment of end products and the determination of important parameters with a view to understanding production processes used by the pharmaceutical industry. As shown here, the NIRS technique is a highly suitable tool for Process Analytical Technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Development of risk-taking: contributions from adolescent testosterone and the orbito-frontal cortex

    Peper, J.S.; Koolschijn, P.C.M.P.; Crone, E.A.

    2013-01-01

    The role of puberty in the development of risk taking remains poorly understood. Here, in a normative sample of 268 participants between 8 and 25 years old, we applied a psycho-endocrine neuroimaging approach to investigate the contribution of testosterone levels and OFC morphology to individual

  14. Using the Analytical Network Process to Select the Best Strategy for Reducing Risks in a Supply Chain

    L. Hosseini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers four types of the most prominent risks in the supply chain. Their subcriteria and relations between them and within the network are also considered. In a supply chain, risks are mostly created by fluctuations. The aim of this study is to adopt a strategy for eliminating or reducing risks in a supply chain network. Having various solutions helps the supply chain to be resilient. Therefore, five alternatives are considered, namely, total quality management (TQM, leanness, alignment, adaptability, and agility. This paper develops a new network of supply chain risks by considering the interactions between risks. Perhaps, the network elements have interacted with some or all of the factors (clusters or subfactors. We constitute supply chain risks in the analytic network process (ANP, which attracted less attention in the previous studies. Most of the studies about making a decision in supply chains have been applied in analytic hierarchy process (AHP network. The present study considers the ANP as a well-known multicriteria decision making (MCDM technique to choose the best alternative, because of the interdependency and feedbacks of different levels of the network. Finally, the ANP selects TQM as the best alternative among the considered ones.

  15. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  16. [Factors of risk perception and risk acceptability: a contribution for the knowledge of the perception of the risk associated with blood transfusion].

    Hergon, E; Moutel, G; Bellier, L; Hervé, C; Rouger, P

    2004-07-01

    The concept of risk cannot be limited to simply knowing the probability of occurrence and the seriousness of the damages caused. It's a matter of social construction and numerous elements contribute towards its perception and acceptability. These elements have been studied for 20 years or so. Some of these elements influence risk perception such as awfulness, unfamiliarity, the number of people exposed to it, other elements influence its acceptance such as individual perceptions, social factors, ethics and equity. Their knowledge allows a better understanding of the evolution of perception and of the risk acceptability in general and transfusion risk in particular.

  17. Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

    Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

    2016-12-01

    Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

  18. The contribution of industry to complementary financing of nuclear liability risk

    Delpirou, D.

    1993-01-01

    The members of OPEN (Association of Nuclear Energy Producers) and UNIPEDE (International Union of Producers and Distributors of Electrical Energy) consider that the creation of a pooling system intended to have industry provide complementary financing of nuclear liability risk cannot be taken for granted at the current stage of discussions. If such a system was set-up, it should respect the following principles: free organization of pools by operators and voluntary association of members; creation of pools on a regional basis; setting of a reasonable maximum contribution for each nuclear installation; system of post event contributions; flexible and economic management of funds

  19. The Use of Analytic Network Process for Risk Assessment in Production of Renewable Energy from Agriculture Biomass in Latvia

    Sandija Rivza

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is an important factor for successful and sustainable entrepreneurship of bioenergy production that has become one of the priorities in energy sector of Latvia. Promotion of the use of renewable energy is included as one of the strategic goals for European Union (EU and Latvia. As this field of energy production in Latvia is rather new and scantily explored there are many risk factors arising in different stages of production, starting with planning and building of a bioreactor and ending with production and further use and distribution of energy. The present research focuses on risk assessment in renewable energy production form biomass as this kind of energy is seen as a perspective source for renewable energy under the conditions of Latvia. A risk assessment module for renewable energy production made by using the Analytic Network Process (ANP software is described in the paper.

  20. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    S. Fuchs

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica and a rural (Evros area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area and flash floods (peri-urban area. Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human–environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  1. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  2. Contribution of occupational risk factors to the global burden of disease - a summary of findings

    Fingerhut, M.; Driscoll, T.; Nelson, D.I.; Concha-Barrientos, M.; Punnett, L.; Pruss-Ustin, A.; Steenland, K.; Leigh, J.; Corvalan, C. [NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The World Health Organization conducted a comparative risk assessment to ascertain the contributions of 26 risk factors to the global burden of disease. Five occupational risk factors accounted for an estimated 37% of back pain, 16% of hearing loss, 13% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 11% of asthma, 9% of lung cancer, 8% of injuries, and 2% of leukemia worldwide. Virtually all cases of silicosis, asbestosis, and coal workers' pneumoconiosis were work-related. Contaminated sharps injuries accounted for 40% of hepatitis B, 40% of hepatitis C, and 4% of HIV/AlDS infections among health care workers. Data limitations, primarily in developing countries, prevented the inclusion of other major occupational risk factors. These selected occupational risks accounted for about 850,000 deaths and 24 million years of healthy life lost each year. The deaths due to these selected occupational risk factors constitute only 43% of the International Labour Organization's estimate of 2 million deaths worldwide due to work-related risks.

  3. A nondegenerate code of deleterious variants in Mendelian loci contributes to complex disease risk.

    Blair, David R; Lyttle, Christopher S; Mortensen, Jonathan M; Bearden, Charles F; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Khiabanian, Hossein; Melamed, Rachel; Rabadan, Raul; Bernstam, Elmer V; Brunak, Søren; Jensen, Lars Juhl; Nicolae, Dan; Shah, Nigam H; Grossman, Robert L; Cox, Nancy J; White, Kevin P; Rzhetsky, Andrey

    2013-09-26

    Although countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. By mining the medical records of over 110 million patients, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to complex disease risk. We detect thousands of associations between Mendelian and complex diseases, revealing a nondegenerate, phenotypic code that links each complex disorder to a unique collection of Mendelian loci. Using genome-wide association results, we demonstrate that common variants associated with complex diseases are enriched in the genes indicated by this "Mendelian code." Finally, we detect hundreds of comorbidity associations among Mendelian disorders, and we use probabilistic genetic modeling to demonstrate that Mendelian variants likely contribute nonadditively to the risk for a subset of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Tissue-Level Mechanical Properties of Bone Contributing to Fracture Risk.

    Nyman, Jeffry S; Granke, Mathilde; Singleton, Robert C; Pharr, George M

    2016-08-01

    Tissue-level mechanical properties characterize mechanical behavior independently of microscopic porosity. Specifically, quasi-static nanoindentation provides measurements of modulus (stiffness) and hardness (resistance to yielding) of tissue at the length scale of the lamella, while dynamic nanoindentation assesses time-dependent behavior in the form of storage modulus (stiffness), loss modulus (dampening), and loss factor (ratio of the two). While these properties are useful in establishing how a gene, signaling pathway, or disease of interest affects bone tissue, they generally do not vary with aging after skeletal maturation or with osteoporosis. Heterogeneity in tissue-level mechanical properties or in compositional properties may contribute to fracture risk, but a consensus on whether the contribution is negative or positive has not emerged. In vivo indentation of bone tissue is now possible, and the mechanical resistance to microindentation has the potential for improving fracture risk assessment, though determinants are currently unknown.

  5. Advanced business analytics

    Lev, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The book describes advanced business analytics and shows how to apply them to many different professional areas of engineering and management. Each chapter of the book is contributed by a different author and covers a different area of business analytics. The book connects the analytic principles with business practice and provides an interface between the main disciplines of engineering/technology and the organizational, administrative and planning abilities of management. It also refers to other disciplines such as economy, finance, marketing, behavioral economics and risk analysis. This book is of special interest to engineers, economists and researchers who are developing new advances in engineering management but also to practitioners working on this subject.

  6. The current contribution of molecular factors to risk estimation in neuroblastoma patients.

    Berthold, F; Sahin, K; Hero, B; Christiansen, H; Gehring, M; Harms, D; Horz, S; Lampert, F; Schwab, M; Terpe, J

    1997-10-01

    The association of molecular characteristics with prognosis has been reported, but not their relationship with each other and their impact in the context of known clinical risk factors. In this study, data of 1249 consecutive intent-to-treat-neuroblastoma patients with more than 1 year follow-up were examined by multivariate analysis using loglinear and Cox proportional hazard regression models on a stage-related basis (stages 1-3: 600, 4S: 116, 4: 533). In a first step, risk factors were identified from 18 selected clinical variables, and risk groups defined. The second step investigated whether molecular characteristics (MYCN, LOH 1p, del 1p, CD44, N-ras, NGF-R, bcl-2, APO-1 (CD95)) contributed additional prognostic information to the model. The loglinear model demonstrated several interactions between clinical factors. By the Cox regression model, seven independent clinical risk factors were found for stages 1-3, seven for stage 4 and two for stage 4S. By subsequent introduction of all molecular variables, MYCN amplification only added significant prognostic information to the clinical factors in localised and stage 4 neuroblastoma. The models allowed the definition of risk groups for stages 1-3 patients by age (e beta = 5.09) and MYCN (e beta = 4.26), for stage 4 by MYCN (e beta = 2.78) and number of symptoms (e beta = 2.44) and for stage 4S by platelet count (e beta = 3.91) and general condition (e beta = 2.99). Molecular factors and in particular MYCN contribute significantly to risk estimation. In conjunction with clinical factors, they are powerful tools to define risk groups in neuroblastoma.

  7. Volatile composition of Merlot red wine and its contribution to the aroma: optimization and validation of analytical method.

    Arcari, Stefany Grützmann; Caliari, Vinicius; Sganzerla, Marla; Godoy, Helena Teixeira

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for the determination of volatile compounds in red wine using headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography-ion trap/ mass spectrometry (GC-IT/MS) and flame ionization detector (GC -FID) was developed, validated and applied to a sample of Brazilian red wine. The optimization strategy was conducted using the Plackett-Burman design for variable selection and central composite rotational design (CCRD). The response surface methodology showed that the performance of the extraction of the volatile compounds using divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane (DVB/CAR/PDMS) fiber is improved with no sample dilution, the addition of 30% NaCl, applying an extraction temperature of 56°C and extraction time of 55min. The qualitative method allowed the extraction and identification of 60 volatile compounds in the sample studied, notably the classes of esters, alcohols, and fatty acids. Furthermore, the method was successfully validated for the quantification of 55 volatile compounds of importance in wines and applied to twelve samples of Merlot red wine from South of Brazil. The calculation of the odor activity value (OAV) showed the most important components of the samples aroma. Ethyl isovalerate, ethyl hexanoate, 1-hexanol, octanoic acid and ethyl cinnamate had the greatest contribution to the aroma of the wines analyzed, which is predominantly fruity with the presence of herbal and fatty odors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

    Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

  10. Group Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Tutorial

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Bridges, John; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria.

  11. Development of an analytical method to assess the occupational health risk of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies using LC-HRMS.

    Reinders, Lars M H; Klassen, Martin D; Jaeger, Martin; Teutenberg, Thorsten; Tuerk, Jochen

    2018-04-01

    Monoclonal antibodies are a group of commonly used therapeutics, whose occupational health risk is still discussed controversially. The long-term low-dose exposure side effects are insufficiently evaluated; hence, discussions are often based on a theoretical level or extrapolating side effects from therapeutic dosages. While some research groups recommend applying the precautionary principle for monoclonal antibodies, others consider the exposure risk too low for measures taken towards occupational health and safety. However, both groups agree that airborne monoclonal antibodies have the biggest risk potential. Therefore, we developed a peptide-based analytical method for occupational exposure monitoring of airborne monoclonal antibodies. The method will allow collecting data about the occupational exposure to monoclonal antibodies. Thus, the mean daily intake for personnel in pharmacies and the pharmaceutical industry can be determined for the first time and will help to substantiate the risk assessment by relevant data. The introduced monitoring method includes air sampling, sample preparation and detection by liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry of individual monoclonal antibodies as well as sum parameter. For method development and validation, a chimeric (rituximab), humanised (trastuzumab) and a fully humanised (daratumumab) monoclonal antibody are used. A limit of detection between 1 μg per sample for daratumumab and 25 μg per sample for the collective peptide is achieved. Graphical abstract Demonstration of the analytical workflow, from the release of monoclonal antibodies to the detection as single substances as well as sum parameter.

  12. Understanding suicide risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework: A meta-analytic review.

    Glenn, Catherine R; Kleiman, Evan M; Cha, Christine B; Deming, Charlene A; Franklin, Joseph C; Nock, Matthew K

    2018-01-01

    The field is in need of novel and transdiagnostic risk factors for suicide. The National Institute of Mental Health's Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) provides a framework that may help advance research on suicidal behavior. We conducted a meta-analytic review of existing prospective risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (ideation, attempts, and deaths) that fall within one of the five RDoC domains or relate to a prominent suicide theory. Predictors were selected from a database of 4,082 prospective risk and protective factors for suicide outcomes. A total of 460 predictors met inclusion criteria for this meta-analytic review and most examined risk (vs. protective) factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. The overall effect of risk factors was statistically significant, but relatively small, in predicting suicide ideation (weighted mean odds ratio: wOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.59-1.87), suicide attempt (wOR = 1.66 [1.57-1.76), and suicide death (wOR = 1.41 [1.24-1.60]). Across all suicide outcomes, most risk factors related to the Negative Valence Systems domain, although effect sizes were of similar magnitude across RDoC domains. This study demonstrated that the RDoC framework provides a novel and promising approach to suicide research; however, relatively few studies of suicidal behavior fit within this framework. Future studies must go beyond the "usual suspects" of suicide risk factors (e.g., mental disorders, sociodemographics) to understand the processes that combine to lead to this deadly outcome. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. MORT User's Manual for use with the Management Oversight and Risk Tree analytical logic diagram. [Contains a list of System Safety Development Center publications

    Knox, N.W.; Eicher, R.W.

    1992-02-01

    This report contains the User's Manual for MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree), a logic diagram in the form of a work sheet'' that illustrates a long series of interrelated questions. MORT is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1,500 specific elements of an ideal universal'' management program for optimizing environment, safety and health, and other programs. This User's Manual is intended to be used with the MORT diagram dated February 1992.

  14. Is food allergen analysis flawed? Health and supply chain risks and a proposed framework to address urgent analytical needs.

    Walker, M J; Burns, D T; Elliott, C T; Gowland, M H; Mills, E N Clare

    2016-01-07

    Food allergy is an increasing problem for those affected, their families or carers, the food industry and for regulators. The food supply chain is highly vulnerable to fraud involving food allergens, risking fatalities and severe reputational damage to the food industry. Many facets are being pursued to ameliorate the difficulties including better food labelling and the concept of thresholds of elicitation of allergy symptoms as risk management tools. These efforts depend to a high degree on the ability reliably to detect and quantify food allergens; yet all current analytical approaches exhibit severe deficiencies that jeopardise accurate results being produced particularly in terms of the risks of false positive and false negative reporting. If we fail to realise the promise of current risk assessment and risk management of food allergens through lack of the ability to measure food allergens reproducibly and with traceability to an international unit of measurement, the analytical community will have failed a significant societal challenge. Three distinct but interrelated areas of analytical work are urgently needed to address the substantial gaps identified: (a) a coordinated international programme for the production of properly characterised clinically relevant reference materials and calibrants for food allergen analysis; (b) an international programme to widen the scope of proteomics and genomics bioinformatics for the genera containing the major allergens to address problems in ELISA, MS and DNA methods; (c) the initiation of a coordinated international programme leading to reference methods for allergen proteins that provide results traceable to the SI. This article describes in more detail food allergy, the risks of inapplicable or flawed allergen analyses with examples and a proposed framework, including clinically relevant incurred allergen concentrations, to address the currently unmet and urgently required analytical requirements. Support for the

  15. Separate and interactive contributions of weak inhibitory control and threat sensitivity to prediction of suicide risk.

    Venables, Noah C; Sellbom, Martin; Sourander, Andre; Kendler, Kenneth S; Joiner, Thomas E; Drislane, Laura E; Sillanmäki, Lauri; Elonheimo, Henrik; Parkkola, Kai; Multimaki, Petteri; Patrick, Christopher J

    2015-04-30

    Biobehavioral dispositions can serve as valuable referents for biologically oriented research on core processes with relevance to many psychiatric conditions. The present study examined two such dispositional variables-weak response inhibition (or disinhibition; INH-) and threat sensitivity (or fearfulness; THT+)-as predictors of the serious transdiagnostic problem of suicide risk in two samples: male and female outpatients from a U.S. clinic (N=1078), and a population-based male military cohort from Finland (N=3855). INH- and THT+ were operationalized through scores on scale measures of disinhibition and fear/fearlessness, known to be related to DSM-defined clinical conditions and brain biomarkers. Suicide risk was assessed by clinician ratings (clinic sample) and questionnaires (both samples). Across samples and alternative suicide indices, INH- and THT+ each contributed uniquely to prediction of suicide risk-beyond internalizing and externalizing problems in the case of the clinic sample where diagnostic data were available. Further, in both samples, INH- and THT+ interactively predicted suicide risk, with individuals scoring concurrently high on both dispositions exhibiting markedly augmented risk. Findings demonstrate that dispositional constructs of INH- and THT+ are predictive of suicide risk, and hold potential as referents for biological research on suicidal behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

  17. Subject-enabled analytics model on measurement statistics in health risk expert system for public health informatics.

    Chung, Chi-Jung; Kuo, Yu-Chen; Hsieh, Yun-Yu; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Liang, Wen-Miin; Liao, Li-Na; Li, Chia-Ing; Lin, Hsueh-Chun

    2017-11-01

    This study applied open source technology to establish a subject-enabled analytics model that can enhance measurement statistics of case studies with the public health data in cloud computing. The infrastructure of the proposed model comprises three domains: 1) the health measurement data warehouse (HMDW) for the case study repository, 2) the self-developed modules of online health risk information statistics (HRIStat) for cloud computing, and 3) the prototype of a Web-based process automation system in statistics (PASIS) for the health risk assessment of case studies with subject-enabled evaluation. The system design employed freeware including Java applications, MySQL, and R packages to drive a health risk expert system (HRES). In the design, the HRIStat modules enforce the typical analytics methods for biomedical statistics, and the PASIS interfaces enable process automation of the HRES for cloud computing. The Web-based model supports both modes, step-by-step analysis and auto-computing process, respectively for preliminary evaluation and real time computation. The proposed model was evaluated by computing prior researches in relation to the epidemiological measurement of diseases that were caused by either heavy metal exposures in the environment or clinical complications in hospital. The simulation validity was approved by the commercial statistics software. The model was installed in a stand-alone computer and in a cloud-server workstation to verify computing performance for a data amount of more than 230K sets. Both setups reached efficiency of about 10 5 sets per second. The Web-based PASIS interface can be used for cloud computing, and the HRIStat module can be flexibly expanded with advanced subjects for measurement statistics. The analytics procedure of the HRES prototype is capable of providing assessment criteria prior to estimating the potential risk to public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  19. Relative risk studies and their relevance to decision-making: the analytical approach in perspective

    Cohen, A.V.

    1982-01-01

    The risks associated with the generation of electricity using nuclear fuels, oil and coal are compared at the three stages of the electricity production process. Fuel extraction, public health effects and waste disposal risks are taken into consideration. Probabilities for a major catastrophic event are also calculated. The uncertainties of risk assessment at each stage are noted. The reasons for public prejudice against the evidence for the safety of nuclear power are discussed. (U.K.)

  20. Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

    Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-07-01

    Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

  1. Considering the human factors contribution to the risk in the design choices

    Papin, B.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: With the increasing reliability of the modern technological systems, the human contribution to the global risk in the operation of industrial systems is becoming more and more significant: in the nuclear reactor operation for example, a recent PSA estimation of this contribution is about 25% of the risk of core melting, all situations considered. This urges the designers of future plants to consider the minimization of this Human Factor (HF) contribution, at the very early stage of their design: the experience feedback shows that this is indeed at this stage that the fundamental design options, impacting the most the human reliability in operation, are fixed. The problem is that at these early design stages, it is also quite impossible to apply formal human reliability methods to support this HF optimisation, while the precise operating conditions of the plant are not yet known in enough details. In this paper, another approach of the HF evaluation during the design, based on the functional and operational complexity assessment, is proposed. As an illustration, this approach is used to compare various concepts of nuclear reactors from the point of view of the Human Factor relevance. (authors)

  2. Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

    López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

    2015-01-01

    The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  4. Serotonin 2A receptors contribute to the regulation of risk-averse decisions

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina

    2013-01-01

    Pharmacological studies point to a role of the neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) in regulating the preference for risky decisions, yet the functional contribution of specific 5-HT receptors remains to be clarified. We used pharmacological fMRI to investigate the role of the 5-HT2A receptors...... in processing negative outcomes and regulating risk-averse behavior. During fMRI, twenty healthy volunteers performed a gambling task under two conditions: with or without blocking the 5-HT2A receptors. The volunteers repeatedly chose between small, likely rewards and large, unlikely rewards. Choices were...

  5. Neglect and hereditary risk: Their relative contribution to schizophrenia with negative symptomatology.

    Gallagher, Bernard J; Jones, Brian J

    2016-05-01

    There is evidence that genetic and environmental stressors contribute to the genesis of schizophrenia. However, the relevant impact of each factor remains unclear. We tested for an interactive effect between childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness. Data were further analyzed for a possible connection to type of schizophrenic symptoms. Data for the study are taken from the medical records of 641 patients with schizophrenia from a large state hospital in the northeastern United States. Clinical assessments were divided into positive and negative symptomatology through application of the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS), the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Detailed information about childhood neglect and family history of serious mental illness was obtained through Social Service Assessment interviews at intake and during hospital stay. Among clients with no family history of mental illness, childhood neglect does not meaningfully affect the risk of negative versus positive schizophrenia. For clients with such history, on the other hand, neglect significantly raises the risk of schizophrenia with negative symptomatology. Our central finding is that risk for negative symptoms of schizophrenia are elevated by childhood neglect combined with a history of serious mental illness within the family. This is the only report to combine schizophrenic symptoms, familial risk and childhood neglect to date. Implications for primary prevention and treatment are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

    Yun Chen; Hui Yang

    2014-01-01

    The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

  7. Contributions of vitamin D response elements and HLA promoters to multiple sclerosis risk.

    Nolan, David; Castley, Alison; Tschochner, Monika; James, Ian; Qiu, Wei; Sayer, David; Christiansen, Frank T; Witt, Campbell; Mastaglia, Frank; Carroll, William; Kermode, Allan

    2012-08-07

    The identification of a vitamin D-responsive (VDRE) motif within the HLA-DRB1*15:01 promoter region provides an attractive explanation for the combined effects of HLA-DR inheritance and vitamin D exposure on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. We therefore sought to incorporate HLA-DRB1 promoter variation, including the VDRE motif, in an assessment of HLA-DRB1-associated MS risk. We utilized 32 homozygous HLA cell lines (covering 17 DRB1 alleles) and 53 heterozygote MS samples (20 DRB1 alleles) for HLA-DRB1 promoter sequencing. The influence of HLA-DRB1 variation on MS risk was then assessed among 466 MS cases and 498 controls. The majority of HLA*DRB1 alleles (including HLA-DRB1*15:01) express the functional VDRE motif, apart from HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 alleles that comprise the HLA-DR53 serologic group. Allele-specific variation within functional X-box and Y-box motifs was also associated with serologically defined HLA-DR haplotypes. Incorporating these results in an analysis of MS risk, we identified a strong protective effect of HLA-DRB1*04, *07, and *09 (DR53) alleles (p = 10(-12)) and elevated risk associated with DRB1*15 and *16 (DR51) and *08 (DR8) alleles (p < 10(-18)). HLA-DRB1 groups corresponding to serologic HLA-DR profiles as well as promoter polymorphism haplotypes effectively stratified MS risk over an 11-fold range, suggesting functional relationships between risk-modifying HLA-DRB1 alleles. An independent contribution of VDRE motif variation to increase MS risk was not discernible, although vitamin D-dependent regulation of HLA-DR expression may still play an important role given that HLA-DRB1*04/*07/*09 (DR53) alleles that express the "nonresponsive" VDRE motif were associated with significantly reduced risk of MS.

  8. Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

    Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

    2009-07-01

    The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

  9. Risk Assessment: Factors Contributing to Discomfort for Menopausal Women in Workplace.

    Jafari, Mehdi; Seifi, Bahar; Heidari, Mohammad

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to review the Factors contributing to discomfort for menopausal women in workplace and the perceived effects of working conditions on menopausal symptoms, and to produce recommendations for managers and women. This study was a review article. We searched PubMed and Science Direct for articles related to menopause and workplace. Keywords included: menopause AND workplace OR occupational health or menopausal women AND managers. Because we aimed to update the literature following the 2011 review of menopause and workplace, only English-language articles published between 2011 and 2017 were included. This review showed that how managers could be help and awareness and what should be done for menopausal women in workplace by risk assessment. Many risk factors are contributing to discomfort for menopausal women in workplace and managers should be assessed them. Managers should be aware that menopausal transition causes difficulty for some women at work, then occupational health and safety and health promotion policies will be increasingly important. It may help inform the development of tailored occupational health policies and programs that cater for the needs of women as they transition through menopause in the workplace.

  10. The Contribution of Matrix Metalloproteinase-1 Promoter Genotypes in Taiwan Lung Cancer Risk.

    Shen, Te-Chun; Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Chao, Che-Yi; Lin, Yi-Ting; Hsiao, Chieh-Lun; Hsu, Che-Lun; Chen, Wei-Chun; Hsia, Te-Chun; Bau, DA-Tian

    2018-01-01

    Up-regulation of metallo-proteinase (MMP) proteins has been shown in various types of solid cancers and the genotype of MMP1 has been associated with the risk of solid cancers. The contribution of MMP1 genotype to lung cancer has been investigated in various countries, though, to our knowledge, not in Taiwan. Therefore, in this study, we focused on the contribution of a polymorphism in the promoter region of MMP1 to lung cancer risk in Taiwan population. Genomic DNA was isolated from peripheral blood of 358 patients with lung cancer and 716 healthy individuals (non-cancer patients). MMP1 rs1799750 polymorphic genotypes of each sample were determined using the typical methodology of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The percentages of 2G/2G, 1G/2G, and 1G/1G for MMP1 -1607 genotypes were 34.4%, 41.3% and 24.3% in the disease group and 33.9%, 44.0%, and 22.1% in the control group (p trend=0.6298), respectively. The results of carrier comparisons in dominant and recessive models also support the findings that 1G or 2G appears not to be a determinant allelic biomarker for Taiwan lung cancer. The MMP1 -1607 1G allele is a non-significant protective biomarker for lung cancer in Taiwan. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  11. Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

    Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

    2017-10-01

    Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, pobesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Analytic advanced development in the German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Plants

    1984-01-01

    The study carried out by the Ecological Institute (Oeko-Institut) deals with the difficulties encountered with the decision-making models and statistical models and methods of the German Risk Study on Nuclear Power Plants for the determination of care meltdown frequency and for the estimation of the behaviour of components in the event of a failure. Related deficiencies of the German Risk Study and the absence of completeness and lading representiveness of the course and causes of incidents considered are pointed out. The accident consequences model and the climatological-meteorological data base are considered non-representative. (RF) [de

  13. Contributing risk factors for orthopedic device related infections in sina hospital, tehran, iran.

    Hadadi, A; Zehtab, M J; Babagolzadeh, H; Ashraf, H

    2011-02-01

    In spite of decreasing incidence of orthopedic device-related infections to 1%, nowadays, device-related infection still remains a diagnostic, therapeutic and cost-related problem. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contributing risk factors for orthopedic device-related infections in Sina Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Three hundred and thirty patients who underwent orthopedic device implantation from 2002-2006 were enrolled; among them, 110 patients were complicated with infection. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for device related infections. Patients with infection were older compared to those without infection. The Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest organism. A correlation was observed between wound infection and external fixation, an underlying health condition, and addiction which were independent risk factors for a device related infection. Orthopedic device-related infection puts a great financial burden on patients and hospital resources and could lead to morbidity and mortality in patients. So, appropriate pre and postoperative wound care for dirty wounds, especially when external fixators are used, and in patients with poor conditions or addiction should be done with more caution.

  14. Risks and benefits of diagnostic radiology. A contribution to quality assurance

    Angerstein, W.

    1995-01-01

    After some introductory remarks on the necessity of determining quantitative standards in diagnostic radiology as one of the key subjects in medicine, the author discusses eight statistical quantities that describe and elucidate the activities in the subject field. These quantities establish a connection between parameters such as number of images, examinations, patients and the number of therapy-relevant diagnoses, false diagnoses and incidents, and establish a relationship to the collective dose as a value indicating the radiation dose and the number of radiation injuries. These quantities can in principle be derived as retrospective or prospective data. Knowledge of these quantities would indeed represent an essential contribution to assessing the value of diagnostic radiology, risks involved, and achievement of quality assurance goals. For a number of relevant quotients, the article gives concrete values derived on the basis of evaluation of data collected at various medical centers, or obtained from regional or Land statistics of the former GDR. These data and the collective dose to be computed in addition, allow to derive a quotient composed of the benefits and the risks of diagnostic radiology, giving the relationship between the number of therapy-relevant diagnoses and the number of casualties. The value of this quotient depends on the examination method applied and usually is between 1000 and more than 100 000, and thus is lower than the risk quotients calculated for other fields of medicine, or non-medical fields [de

  15. Analytical Methods for the Analysis of Managerial Risk in the Marketing

    Svetlana BRADUTAN

    2013-01-01

    Within forecasts based on single estimations the risk due to uncertainty is not considered. Yet they continue to be widely used in practice in different areas of marketing such as the return on investments, discounted flow of benefits of a project, the average annual benefit of an investment a.s.o.

  16. Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

    Goldstein, Benjamin A; Navar, Ann Marie; Carter, Rickey E

    2017-06-14

    Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

  17. GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

    Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

    2016-10-01

    Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

  18. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for examining healthcare professionals' assessments of risk factors. The relative importance of risk factors for falls in community-dwelling older people.

    Pecchia, L; Bath, P A; Pendleton, N; Bracale, M

    2011-01-01

    A gap exists between evidence-based medicine and clinical-practice. Every day, healthcare professionals (HCPs) combine empirical evidence and subjective experience in order to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, it is important to understand how HCPs interpret the research evidence and apply it in everyday practice. We focused on the prevention of falls, a common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life, for which there is a wide range of known risk factors. To use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the opinions of HCPs in prioritizing risk factors for preventing falls. We used the AHP to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts. We submitted electronic questionnaires via the web, in order to reach a wider number of respondents. With a web service, we pooled the results and weighted the coherence and the experience of respondents. Overall, 232 respondents participated in the study: 32 in the technical pilot study, nine in the scientific pilot study and 191 respondents in the main study. We identified a hierarchy of 35 risk factors, organized in two categories and six sub-categories. The hierarchy of risk factors provides further insights into clinicians' perceptions of risk factors for falls. This hierarchy helps understand the relative importance that clinicians place on risk factors for falls in older people and why evidence-based guidelines are not always followed. This information may be helpful in improving intervention programs and in understanding how clinicians prioritize multiple risk factors in individual patients. The AHP method allows the opinions of HCPs to be investigated, giving appropriate weight to their coherence, background and experience.

  19. Is low self-esteem a risk factor for depression among adolescents? an analytical study with interventional component

    Jayanthi P, Rajamanickam Rajkumar

    2014-01-01

    Background: Self – esteem is an important factor for helping persons deal with life stressors. It is an important determinant of psychological well-being that is particularly problematic during an adolescent life stage. Low self-esteem might contribute to depression through both interpersonal and intrapersonal pathways. Many theories of depression postulate that low self esteem is a defining feature of depression. Aims: Self-esteem in adolescents has been associated with a number of risk and ...

  20. Hyperactive Children are at Risk of Dental Caries -An Analytical Study

    C Jeevika

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD is well recognized in western countries, but there were no much reports of ADHD from India. Aim: To determine the relationship of ADHD with dental caries. Materials & Method : A cross-sectional analytical study was carried out among 120 children aged around 8-15 years who were randomly selected from normal and special schools located in Chennai city. The children were categorized as ADHD according to the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV.The questionnaire was given to parents and teachers. It included details of DSM- IV criteria, age, sex, demographic details, past dental history, hours diet chart and any medication taken previously. The oral hygiene status was assessed using Oral Hygiene index simplified (OHI-S and the caries experience was recorded using DMFT index. Categorical data were compared by the Chi-square test. The odds ratio (OR was calculated with logistic regression. A multivariate analysis was carried out to adjust for gender, dental caries status of primary and permanent teeth. Results : Males are more in ADHD group when compared to females. Oral Hygiene Status of ADHD group was significantly better than control group. ADHD children were 3.1 times more odds of getting dental caries than children in the control group.

  1. Genetic risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder contributes to neurodevelopmental traits in the general population.

    Martin, Joanna; Hamshere, Marian L; Stergiakouli, Evangelia; O'Donovan, Michael C; Thapar, Anita

    2014-10-15

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be viewed as the extreme end of traits in the general population. Epidemiological and twin studies suggest that ADHD frequently co-occurs with and shares genetic susceptibility with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and ASD-related traits. The aims of this study were to determine whether a composite of common molecular genetic variants, previously found to be associated with clinically diagnosed ADHD, predicts ADHD and ASD-related traits in the general population. Polygenic risk scores were calculated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) population sample (N = 8229) based on a discovery case-control genome-wide association study of childhood ADHD. Regression analyses were used to assess whether polygenic scores predicted ADHD traits and ASD-related measures (pragmatic language abilities and social cognition) in the ALSPAC sample. Polygenic scores were also compared in boys and girls endorsing any (rating ≥ 1) ADHD item (n = 3623). Polygenic risk for ADHD showed a positive association with ADHD traits (hyperactive-impulsive, p = .0039; inattentive, p = .037). Polygenic risk for ADHD was also negatively associated with pragmatic language abilities (p = .037) but not with social cognition (p = .43). In children with a rating ≥ 1 for ADHD traits, girls had a higher polygenic score than boys (p = .003). These findings provide molecular genetic evidence that risk alleles for the categorical disorder of ADHD influence hyperactive-impulsive and attentional traits in the general population. The results further suggest that common genetic variation that contributes to ADHD diagnosis may also influence ASD-related traits, which at their extreme are a characteristic feature of ASD. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  3. Critical infrastructures at risk: A need for a new conceptual approach and extended analytical tools

    Kroeger, Wolfgang

    2008-01-01

    Recent decades have witnessed on the one hand a much greater and tighter integration of goods or services supply systems and growing interconnectedness as well as changing organizational and operational factors, and on the other hand an increased social vulnerability in the face of accidental or intentional disruption. The work of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) in the field of critical infrastructures has focused on both the risks associated with five individual infrastructures and the issues associated with the increasing interdependence between them. This paper presents a selection of system weaknesses and a number of policy options that have been identified and highlights issues for further investigation and dialogue with stakeholders. Furthermore, the need to extend current modeling and simulation techniques in order to cope with the increasing system complexity is elaborated. An object-oriented, hybrid modeling approach promising to overcome some of the shortcomings of traditional methods is presented

  4. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study.

    Singh, Khushboo; Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-04-01

    Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers.

  5. Relative Risk of Various Head and Neck Cancers among Different Blood Groups: An Analytical Study

    Kote, Sunder; Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Singh, Shilpi; Kundu, Hansa; Jain, Swati

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cancer is a unique disease characterized by abnormal growth of cells which have the ability to invade the adjacent tissues and sometimes even distant organs. The limited and contrasting evidence regarding the association of ABO blood groups with the different types of head and neck cancers in the Indian population warrants the need for the present study. Aim and Objective: To assess the relative risk of various Head & Neck cancers among different blood groups. Materials and Method: Three hundred sixty two diagnosed cases of different type of head and neck cancers and 400 controls were selected from four hospitals of New Delhi, India. The information regarding the type of head and neck cancer was obtained from the case sheets of the patients regarding their socio demographic profile, dietary history using a structured performa. The information regarding type of cancer (cases only), ABO blood group was collected. Statistical Tests: The data was analysed using the SPSS 19 version. Chi square test and odd ratios were calculated. The level of significance was fixed at 5%. Results: The O blood group was found to be most prevalent followed by B, A and AB among the cases as well as the controls. Oral cancer patients showed maximum number in blood group O followed by B, A and AB. Significant pattern of distribution was seen among the patients of esophageal cancer, laryngeal cancer and salivary gland cancer as well (p= 0.003, p=0.000 p=0.112 respectively. Conclusion: The present study reveals that there is an inherited element in the susceptibility or protection against different types of head and neck cancers. Blood group A was found to be a potential risk factor for the development of oral cancers, esophageal cancers and salivary gland cancers while blood group B was found to be a potential risk factor for laryngeal cancers. PMID:24959511

  6. Meta-analytic evaluation of the association between head injury and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Watanabe, Yukari; Watanabe, Takamitsu

    2017-10-01

    Head injury is considered as a potential risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, several recent studies have suggested that head injury is not a cause, but a consequence of latent ALS. We aimed to evaluate such a possibility of reverse causation with meta-analyses considering time lags between the incidence of head injuries and the occurrence of ALS. We searched Medline and Web of Science for case-control, cross-sectional, or cohort studies that quantitatively investigated the head-injury-related risk of ALS and were published until 1 December 2016. After selecting appropriate publications based on PRISMA statement, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sixteen of 825 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The association between head injuries and ALS was statistically significant when the meta-analysis included all the 16 studies (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.21-1.74). However, in the meta-analyses considering the time lags between the experience of head injuries and diagnosis of ALS, the association was weaker (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.46, time lag ≥ 1 year) or not significant (e.g. OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.84-1.59, time lag ≥ 3 years). Although it did not deny associations between head injuries and ALS, the current study suggests a possibility that such a head-injury-oriented risk of ALS has been somewhat overestimated. For more accurate evaluation, it would be necessary to conduct more epidemiological studies that consider the time lags between the occurrence of head injuries and the diagnosis of ALS.

  7. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Wiratomo, Yogi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Indraprasta PGRI University, Nangka Street No. 58C Tanjung Barat, South Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

  8. Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

    Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

    2014-01-01

    Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area

  9. Age as a Risk Factor for Burnout Syndrome in Nursing Professionals: A Meta-Analytic Study.

    Gómez-Urquiza, José L; Vargas, Cristina; De la Fuente, Emilia I; Fernández-Castillo, Rafael; Cañadas-De la Fuente, Guillermo A

    2017-04-01

    Although past research has highlighted the possibility of a direct relationship between the age of nursing professionals and burnout syndrome, results have been far from conclusive. The aim of this study was to conduct a wider analysis of the influence of age on the three dimensions of burnout syndrome (emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment) in nurses. We performed a meta-analysis of 51 publications extracted from health sciences and psychology databases that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were 47 reports of information on emotional exhaustion in 50 samples, 39 reports on depersonalization for 42 samples, and 31 reports on personal accomplishment in 34 samples. The mean effect sizes indicated that younger age was a significant factor in the emotional exhaustion and depersonalization of nurses, although it was somewhat less influential in the dimension of personal accomplishment. Because of heterogeneity in the effect sizes, moderating variables that might explain the association between age and burnout were also analyzed. Gender, marital status, and study characteristics moderated the relationship between age and burnout and may be crucial for the identification of high-risk groups. More research is needed on other variables for which there were only a small number of studies. Identification of burnout risk factors will facilitate establishment of burnout prevention programs for nurses. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Integration of fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP for risk assessment in mining industry

    Shikha Verma

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Mining industry has always been known for its unsafe working environment. This industry is one of the most hazard prone industries. To maintain safety in workplace timely assessment of risk associated with different operations performed to extract ore from the ore body has become necessity. To serve the said purpose, present work demonstrates a robust hybrid risk assessment approach for mining industry.Design/Methodology: Accident data from 1995 to 2012 is reviewed to identify hazards contributed to negative outcomes. The FRA approach is implemented to evaluate the risk levels associated with identified hazard factors. Thereafter AHP pairwise comparison matrix is developed to obtain priority weights for the hazard factors. Final priority of hazards based on severity of level of risk associated with them is obtained considering the outcome of FRA approach in terms of risk score for the hazards, combined with the priority weights obtained from AHP technique.Findings: Defuzzified FAHP weight of hazard factors, this weight gives priority sequence of hazards to be considered for development of plan of mitigation.Originality/Value: Risk assessment is a requirement of the Occupational Health and Safety Act 2000 (Section 7& 8. The data required to assess the risk is uncertain, and in such case fuzzy approach is well suited to process the data and get the crisp output. The output of fuzzy approach is made robust with its integration to AHP. In this way FAHP can be used as robust technique for risk assessment in this industry and this technique develops an efficient safety management system for the achievement of goal to develop the workplace with zero accident, which many other countries have already achieved.

  11. Consumer contribution to food contamination in Brazil: modelling the food safety risk in the home

    Sergio Paulo Olinto da Motta

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Foodborne diseases are among the most widespread public health issues, killing about 2.2 million people annually, and costing hundreds of billions of US dollars for governments, companies, families and consumers (WHO, 2007. In Brazil, foodborne diseases acquired in the home account for 55% of notified outbreaks (BRASIL, 2012. Several studies have investigated aspects of consumer behaviour concerning food poisoning, mapping practices in the home, but it remains a challenge to obtain a full picture of the consumer contribution to food contamination (REDMOND and GRIFFITH, 2003. This study aimed to assess the risks of food contamination in the home. A questionnaire containing 140 questions concerning food safety knowledge, handling practices, personal hygiene and basic health care, covering the stages when the food is under the control of the consumer, was developed and used to gather data for analysis. Appropriate scores were attributed to the questions (consequences to food safety and answers (likelihood of food contamination. A risk estimate algorithm and an appropriate risk ranking scale were used to assess the results. From August 2011 to March 2012, survey questionnaires were collected from 2,775 consumers in Brazil across 19 out of 27 state capitals. The study found risky practices with the potential to lead to food poisoning occurrences in the domestic environment in the following handling steps: food transportation, food preparation, cooking and the handling of leftovers. The personal hygiene, age, formal education, family income and basic health care habits represented the factors most related to the risky practices of consumers, which could orientate food safety educational campaigns for the Brazilian population.

  12. Risks and factors contributing towards rural entrepreneurial orientation growth of business in an emerging economy

    Lawrence Mpele Lekhanya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines risks and critical factors contributing to the rural entrepreneurial orientation growth of businesses. The concept of entrepreneurial orientation and various factors influencing the rural entrepreneurial orientation growth are still not well known. The study aimed to assess risks and critical factors affecting rural entrepreneurial orientation growth of businesses. Questionnaire was developed and used to collect primary data from 127 rural entrepreneurs. The sample was made with small and medium entrepreneurs operating in rural places. They were selected using quota sampling, with respondents completing a questionnaire with the assistance of an interviewer. The study used quantitative technique for data collection. SPSS (23.0 version was used for data analysis and scientific statistical significance level found to be (.000* at the Cronbach’s alpha (.791* reliability. Results of the survey reveal that majority indicates competition as a big challenge for them. Findings further indicate that competitor is due to the small market and lack of products differentiation. This study introduces an additional literature in the field of entrepreneurship with specific reference to rural entrepreneurship. The paper will benefit rural entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial marketing managers, potential young entrepreneurs, business consultants, policymakers, financial institutions, government agencies and all affiliated stakeholders by introducing a new understanding of risks and various critical factors causative into rural entrepreneurial orientation growth of business in an emerging economy. Most work on the entrepreneurship development has concentrated in the urban areas with little emphasis on the rural places. The findings of this study limited by study’s exploratory, small sample and quantitative nature. Therefore, generalisation of results should be done with care and further research is encouraged and should aim at the development of

  13. Why Weight? An Analytic Review of Obesity Management, Diabetes Prevention, and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction.

    Igel, L I; Saunders, K H; Fins, J J

    2018-05-21

    In this review, we examine one of the ironies of American health care-that we pay more for disease management than disease prevention. Instead of preventing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) by treating its precursor, obesity, we fail to provide sufficient insurance coverage for weight management only to fund the more costly burden of overt T2DM. There is a vital need for expanded insurance coverage to help foster a weight-centric approach to T2DM management. This includes broader coverage of anti-diabetic medications with evidence of cardiovascular risk reduction and mortality benefit, anti-obesity pharmacotherapy, bariatric surgery, weight loss devices, endoscopic bariatric therapies, and lifestyle interventions for the treatment of obesity. The fundamental question to ask is why weight? Why wait to go after obesity until its end-stage sequelae cause intractable conditions? Instead of managing the complications of T2DM, consider preventing them by tackling obesity.

  14. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  15. ANALYTICAL ISSUES OF RISK COMMUNICATION. RATIONALE FOR APPROACHES TO DEVELOPING RESEARCH DATABASES ON RADIATION SAFETY AND SOCIAL RISKS

    L. S. Rekhtina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important stages of risk communication is the analysis of publications in traditional media and the Internet, which largely shape people’s attitudes to various issues. At the same time, the availability of large amounts of information relating to any subject area complicates the possibility of manual analysis and adequate description of all of the information. On the other hand, the availability of information causes the urgency of developing methods to improve the effectiveness of its analysis. One way to automate the analysis of large amounts of information is the development of databases or automated information systems containing information materials on the subject matter under study and suggesting the possibility of automated processing. The objective of this work is to analyze the experience of developing such systems and databases by the research teams of the St. Petersburg Institute of Radiation Hygiene and St. Petersburg State University and to identify key features of the use of bases Data for social research. The results of the analysis showed that the methodological approaches used were very close. The analysis is performed according to the method of autoethnographical research. The strategy application of the comparative analysis allows identifying common features characterizing the situation of development and implementation of databases to practice of the risk communication studies. The article discusses the features associated with them, the limitations of the primary data, such as text, discursive nature of most of the materials, information noise, high dependence on context, variability, different structure, format and appearance of materials. The important parameters for solving problems of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are given in the article. An important condition of creating effective, from the point of view of socio-communication studies information system is to implement the processing

  16. Pre-Analytical Components of Risk in Four Branches of Clinical Laboratory in Romania--Prospective Study.

    David, Remona E; Dobreanu, Minodora

    2016-01-01

    Development of quality measurement principles is a strategic point for each clinical laboratory. Preexamination process is the most critical and the most difficult to be managed. The aim of this study is to identify, quantify, and monitor the nonconformities of the pre-analytical process using quality indicators that can affect the patient's health safety in four different locations of a Romanian private clinical laboratory. The study group consisted of all the analysis requests received by the departments of biochemistry, hematology, and coagulation from January through March 2015. In order to collect the pre-analytical nonconformities, we created a "Risk Budget", using the entries from the "Evidence notebook--non-conform samples" from the above mentioned departments. The laboratory established the quality indicators by means of the risk management technique in order to identify and control the sources of errors, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analyses), which had been implemented and monitored for its purposes and special needs. For the assessment of the control level over the processes, the results were transformed on the Six Sigma scale, using the Westgard calculation method and being obtained in this way the frequency with which an error may occur. (https://www.westgard. com/six-sigma-calculators.htm). The obtained results prove that the quantification and monitoring of the indicators can be a control instrument for the pre-analytic activities. The calculation of the Six Sigma value adds extra information to the study because it allows the detection of the processes which need improvement (Sigma value higher than 4 represents a well controlled process). The highest rates were observed for the hemolyzed and the lipemic samples, in the department of biochemistry and hemolyzed, insufficient sample volume, or clotted samples for the department of hematology and coagulation. Significant statistical differences between laboratories participating in the study have

  17. Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market.

    Long, Haiming; Zhang, Ji; Tang, Nengyu

    2017-01-01

    This study considers the effect of an industry's network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry's conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR) and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR) using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR) of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry's systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust.

  18. Does network topology influence systemic risk contribution? A perspective from the industry indices in Chinese stock market.

    Haiming Long

    Full Text Available This study considers the effect of an industry's network topology on its systemic risk contribution to the stock market using data from the CSI 300 two-tier industry indices from the Chinese stock market. We first measure industry's conditional-value-at-risk (CoVaR and the systemic risk contribution (ΔCoVaR using the fitted time-varying t-copula function. The network of the stock industry is established based on dynamic conditional correlations with the minimum spanning tree. Then, we investigate the connection characteristics and topology of the network. Finally, we utilize seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SUR of panel data to analyze the relationship between network topology of the stock industry and the industry's systemic risk contribution. The results show that the systemic risk contribution of small-scale industries such as real estate, food and beverage, software services, and durable goods and clothing, is higher than that of large-scale industries, such as banking, insurance and energy. Industries with large betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and clustering coefficient and small node occupancy layer are associated with greater systemic risk contribution. In addition, further analysis using a threshold model confirms that the results are robust.

  19. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  20. Ecotoxicological and analytical assessment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and application to ecological risk assessment

    Saterbak, A.; Toy, R.J.; Wong, D.C.L.; McMain, B.J.; Williams, M.P.; Dorn, P.B.; Brzuzy, L.P.; Chai, E.Y.; Salanitro, J.P.

    1999-07-01

    Ecotoxicological assessments of contaminated soil aim to understand the effect of introduced chemicals on the soil flora and fauna. Ecotoxicity test methods were developed and conducted on hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and on adjacent uncontaminated control soils from eight field locations. Tests included 7-d, 14-d, and chronic survival tests and reproduction assays for the earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and seed germination, root length, and plant growth assays for corn, lettuce, mustard, and wheat. Species-specific responses were observed with no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) ranging from <1 to 100% contaminated soil. The 14-d earthworm survival NOEC was equal to or greater than the reproduction NOEC values for numbers of cocoons and juveniles, which were similar to one another. Cocoon and juvenile production varied among the control soils. Germination and root length NOECs for mustard and lettuce were less than NOECs for corn and wheat. Root length NOECs were similar to or less than seed germination NOECs. Statistically significant correlations for earthworm survival and seed germination as a function of hydrocarbon measurements were found. The 14-d earthworm survival and the seed germination tests are recommended for use in the context of a risk-based framework for the ecological assessment of contaminated sites.

  1. Activation of the polyol pathway may contribute to increased risk of radiocontrast agent nephrotoxicity in diabetes

    Kaplan, D.L.; Mann, P.L.; Zager, P.G.; Smith, M.A.

    1991-01-01

    The incidence of radiocontrast (RC) agent nephrotoxicity is higher in diabetic than non-diabetic patients. RC nephropathy involves both glomerular and tubular cells. The authors postulate that activation of the polyol pathway contributes to the increased susceptibility of diabetics to RC nephrotoxicity. Mesangial cells modulate GFR by altering the capillary surface area available for filtration. Toxic insult to mesangial cells can impair glomerular function. The present study was performed to determine if mesangial cells isolated from galactose fed rats, the classic model for studying the effects of polyol accumulation, demonstrate increased susceptibility to RC toxicity. A cellular model was developed to study the effects of RC agents on mesangial cells isolated from rats maintained on diets of 50% galactose (MCG) and 50% dextrin (MCD). MCG's and MCD's were plated in 96 well trays at a density of 6.25 x 10 4 cells/ml. Cells were exposed to Hypaque 90 at concentrations of 10 mM to 1 uM for 1, 2, 4 and 24 hrs. Cell viability was determined by fluorescein diacetate/propidium iodide staining. 3H-thymidine incorporation was used to determine cell proliferation rates. Hypaque 90 produced no direct cytotoxicity at any time points or concentrations tested. An increase in cell proliferation was observed 1 hr after exposure to 1 uM to 1mM Hypaque. Higher concentrations blunted cell proliferation rates. Hypaque 90 produced no direct cytotoxicity at any time points or concentrations tested. An increase in cell proliferation was observed 1 hr after exposure to 1 uM to 1mM Hypaque. Higher concentrations blunted cell proliferation. No significant effects on 3H-thymidine incorporation were observed at later time points. The effects on 3H-thymidine incorporation were more pronounced in MCG's than MCD's. Activation of the polyol pathway amplifies the proliferative response of MC to RC agents. This activation may contribute to the risk of RC nephropathy in diabetics

  2. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these deficiencies

  3. Identification of "At Risk" Students Using Learning Analytics: The Ethical Dilemmas of Intervention Strategies in a Higher Education Institution

    Lawson, Celeste; Beer, Colin; Rossi, Dolene; Moore, Teresa; Fleming, Julie

    2016-01-01

    Learning analytics is an emerging field in which sophisticated analytic tools are used to inform and improve learning and teaching. Researchers within a regional university in Australia identified an association between interaction and student success in online courses and subsequently developed a learning analytics system aimed at informing…

  4. Contribution of DNA Repair Xeroderma Pigmentosum Group D Genotype to Gastric Cancer Risk in Taiwan.

    Ji, Hong-Xue; Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Wang, Ju-Yu; Huang, Nai-Kuei; Lee, An-Sheng; Shen, Ming-Yi; Chen, Wei-Yu; Chiang, Yao-Chang; Shih, Tzu-Ching; Hsu, Chin-Mu; Bau, Da-Tian

    2015-09-01

    It has been proposed that genetic variations of DNA repair genes confer susceptibility to cancer, and the DNA repair gene xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD), the caretaker of genome stability, is thought to play a major role in the nucleotide excision repair system. We investigated three genotypes of XPD, at promoter -114 (rs3810366), and codon 312 (rs1799793), 751 (rs13181), and their associated with gastric cancer susceptibility in a Taiwanese population. In the present study, 121 patients with gastric cancer and 363 gender- and age-matched healthy controls were recruited and genotyped for XPD by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) methodology, and the association of XPD genotype with gastric cancer risk was investigated. We found a significant difference in the distribution of A allele-bearing XPD codon 312 genotypes [odds ratio (OR)=1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.20-2.25, p=0.0019], but not in XPD codon 751 or promoter -114 sites, between the gastric cancer and control groups. Those who had G/A or A/A at XPD codon 312 had a 1.83-fold (95% CI=1.14-2.95, p=0.0159) and 1.87-fold (95% CI=1.04-3.34, p=0.0378) increased risk of gastric cancer compared to those with G/G. The risk for G/A and A/A genotypes had synergistic effects with alcohol drinking (OR=11.27, 95% CI=3.72-34.17, p=0.0001), cigarette smoking (OR=23.20, 95% CI=6.24-86.23, p=0.0001) and Helicobacter pylori infection (OR=5.38, 95% CI=2.76-10.52, p=0.0001) on gastric cancer susceptibility. Our findings suggest that the A allele of XPD codon 312 may contribute to gastric carcinogenesis and may be useful for early detection and prevention of gastric cancer. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  5. Mentoring Programs to Affect Delinquency and Associated Outcomes of Youth At-Risk: A Comprehensive Meta-Analytic Reviewi

    Tolan, Patrick H.; Henry, David B.; Schoeny, Michael S.; Lovegrove, Peter; Nichols, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To conduct a meta-analytic review of selective and indicated mentoring interventions for effects for youth at risk on delinquency and key associated outcomes (aggression, drug use, academic functioning). We also undertook the first systematic evaluation of intervention implementation features and organization and tested for effects of theorized key processes of mentor program effects. Methods Campbell Collaboration review inclusion criteria and procedures were used to search and evaluate the literature. Criteria included a sample defined as at-risk for delinquency due to individual behavior such as aggression or conduct problems or environmental characteristics such as residence in high-crime community. Studies were required to be random assignment or strong quasi-experimental design. Of 163 identified studies published 1970 - 2011, 46 met criteria for inclusion. Results Mean effects sizes were significant and positive for each outcome category (ranging form d =.11 for Academic Achievement to d = .29 for Aggression). Heterogeneity in effect sizes was noted for all four outcomes. Stronger effects resulted when mentor motivation was professional development but not by other implementation features. Significant improvements in effects were found when advocacy and emotional support mentoring processes were emphasized. Conclusions This popular approach has significant impact on delinquency and associated outcomes for youth at-risk for delinquency. While evidencing some features may relate to effects, the body of literature is remarkably lacking in details about specific program features and procedures. This persistent state of limited reporting seriously impedes understanding about how mentoring is beneficial and ability to maximize its utility. PMID:25386111

  6. An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

    Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-09-01

    Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

  7. Depression and Anxiety Prevention Based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for At-Risk Adolescents: A Meta-Analytic Review

    Sanne P. A. Rasing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Depression and anxiety disorders are among the most common mental disorders during adolescence. During this life phase, the incidence of these clinical disorders rises dramatically, and even more adolescents suffer from symptoms of depression or anxiety that are just below the clinical threshold. Both clinical and subclinical levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are related to decreased functioning in various areas, such as social and academic functioning. Prevention of depression and anxiety in adolescents is therefore imperative. We conducted a meta-analytic review of the effects of school-based and community-based prevention programs that are based on cognitive behavioral therapy with the primary goal preventing depression, anxiety, or both in high risk adolescents. Articles were obtained by searching databases and hand searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. The selection process yielded 32 articles in the meta-analyses. One article reported on two studies and three articles reported on both depression and anxiety. This resulted in a total of 36 studies, 23 on depression and 13 on anxiety. For depression prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, meta-analysis showed a small effect of prevention programs directly after the intervention, but no effect at 3–6 months and at 12 months follow-up. For anxiety prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, no short-term effect was found, nor at 12 months follow-up. Three to six months after the preventive intervention, symptoms of anxiety were significantly decreased. Although effects on depression and anxiety symptoms were small and temporary, current findings cautiously suggest that depression and anxiety prevention programs based on CBT might have small effects on mental health of adolescents. However, it also indicates that there is still much to be gained for prevention programs. Current findings and possibilities for future research are discussed in order to further

  8. Changes in predicted protein disorder tendency may contribute to disease risk

    Hu Yang

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent studies suggest that many proteins or regions of proteins lack 3D structure. Defined as intrinsically disordered proteins, these proteins/peptides are functionally important. Recent advances in next generation sequencing technologies enable genome-wide identification of novel nucleotide variations in a specific population or cohort. Results Using the exonic single nucleotide variations (SNVs identified in the 1,000 Genomes Project and distributed by the Genetic Analysis Workshop 17, we systematically analysed the genetic and predicted disorder potential features of the non-synonymous variations. The result of experiments suggests that a significant change in the tendency of a protein region to be structured or disordered caused by SNVs may lead to malfunction of such a protein and contribute to disease risk. Conclusions After validation with functional SNVs on the traits distributed by GAW17, we conclude that it is valuable to consider structure/disorder tendencies while prioritizing and predicting mechanistic effects arising from novel genetic variations.

  9. Relative Risks of Contributing Factors to Morbidity and Mortality in Adults With Craniopharyngioma on Growth Hormone Replacement.

    Yuen, Kevin C J; Mattsson, Anders F; Burman, Pia; Erfurth, Eva-Marie; Camacho-Hubner, Cecilia; Fox, Janet L; Verhelst, Johan; Geffner, Mitchell E; Abs, Roger

    2018-02-01

    In adults, craniopharyngioma (CP) of either childhood-onset (CO-CP) or adult-onset (AO-CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but data on the relative risks (RRs) of contributing factors are lacking. To assess the RRs of factors contributing to morbidity and mortality in adults with CO-CP and AO-CP. Data on 1669 patients with CP from KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) were analyzed using univariate and multiple Poisson and Cox regression methods. When CO-CP and AO-CP groups were combined, history of stroke and hyperlipidemia increased cardiovascular risk, higher body mass index (BMI) and radiotherapy increased cerebrovascular risk, and increased waist circumference increased the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with patients with CO-CP, patients with AO-CP had a threefold higher risk of tumor recurrence, whereas being female and previous radiotherapy exposure conferred lower risks. Radiotherapy and older age with every 10 years from disease onset conferred a 2.3- to 3.5-fold risk for developing new intracranial tumors, whereas older age, greater and/or increasing BMI, history of stroke, and lower insulinlike growth factor I (IGF-I) standard deviation score measured at last sampling before death were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, adults with CP had 9.3-, 8.1-, and 2.2-fold risks of developing DM, new intracranial tumors, and early death, respectively. Conventional factors that increase the risks of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and DM and risks for developing new intracranial tumors contributed to excess morbidity and mortality. In addition, lower serum IGF-I level measured from the last sample before death was inversely associated with mortality risk in patients with CP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

  10. Essays on bank liquidity : contributions to the measurement of liquidity risk and to the management of bank liquidity production

    Soula , Jean-Loup

    2017-01-01

    Bank liquidity risk reflects the function of banks to create liquidity. Banks are fragile, exposed to the possibility of runs from short-term creditors. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of bank liquidity risk. The second chapter proposes a measure of bank fragility based on the value of the assets held by a bank. Results confirm, in an original way, the fragile nature of banks. However, bank liquidity creation benefits to the economy. The third chapter analyses the capa...

  11. A Cross-cultural Analytical Framework for Territorial Development Policies : The Application to Flood Risk Management Policies in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

    Rongwinriyaphanich, S.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the application of a proposed analytical framework that takes cultural dimensions as main parameters to explain territorial development processes. It is illustrated through the analysis of flood risk management in two case study areas in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. It aims

  12. Risk intelligence: How lessons from folktales/fables contribute to the implementation of risk management in banks

    Sivave Mashingaidze

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to outline credit risk in banks and how fables/folktales can provide with life lessons to implement risk management systems that should act as a stop-gate measure. Banking institutions need to show how proactively managing risk becomes a cornerstone to explore opportunities, rather than simply avoiding dynamites. Risk Intelligence gives companies the confidence to harness risk to explore new opportunities. Lessons were provided from folktales/fables from the animal kingdom. The article adopted a literature review methodology and the results were that, for a business to be successful the medicine does not lie in the policies but the therapy lies in the spirit of oneness in the banks from top management down to the shop floor employee in the branch. By working together the banks can afford to curb credit risks.

  13. Increased Cancer Mortality Risk for NASA's ISS Astronauts: The Contribution of Diagnostic Radiological Examinations

    Dodge, C.W.; Picco, C. E.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Shavers, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.

  14. Contribution to analytical solution of neutron slowing down problem in homogeneous and heterogeneous media; Prilog analitickom resavanju problema usporavanja neutrona u homogenim i heterogenim sredinama

    Stefanovic, D B [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

    1970-07-01

    The objective of this work is to describe the new analytical solution of the neutron slowing down equation for infinite monoatomic media with arbitrary energy dependence of cross section. The solution is obtained by introducing Green slowing down functions instead of starting from slowing down equations directly. The previously used methods for calculation of fission neutron spectra in the reactor cell were numerical. The proposed analytical method was used for calculating the space-energy distribution of fast neutrons and number of neutron reactions in a thermal reactor cell. The role of analytical method in solving the neutron slowing down in reactor physics is to enable understating of the slowing down process and neutron transport. The obtained results could be used as standards for testing the accuracy od approximative and practical methods.

  15. Contribution of Matrix Metalloproteinase-7 Genotypes to the Risk of Non-solid Tumor, Childhood Leukemia.

    Pei, Jen-Sheng; Chou, An-Kuo; Hsu, Pei-Chen; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Chang, Wen-Shin; Wu, Meng-Feng; Wu, Ming-Hsien; Hsia, Te-Chun; Cheng, Shun-Ping; Bau, DA-Tian

    2017-12-01

    The matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are important in inflammation and carcinogenesis, and the genotypic role of MMP7 has never been examined in leukemia to date. Therefore, in this study we aimed to evaluate the contribution of the genotypic variants in the promoter region of MMP7 (A-181G and C-153T) to childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) risk in Taiwan. In this case-control study, 266 patients with childhood ALL and 266 non-cancer controls were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism methodology. The distribution of AA, AG and GG for MMP7 promoter A-181G genotype was 83.5, 12.0 and 4.5% in the childhood ALL group and 89.8%, 9.4 and 0.8% in the non-cancer control group, respectively (p for trend=0.0134), significantly differentially distributed between childhood ALL and control groups. The comparisons in allelic frequency distribution also support the findings that G appears to be the risky allele in childhood ALL. In genotype and gender interaction analysis, it was found that boys carrying the MMP7 A-181G GG and AG+GG genotypes had 9.05- and 2.45-fold odds ratios (ORs) (p=0.0135 and 0.0142, respectively) for childhood ALL compared to those carrying wild-type AA genotype. But these differences were not found in girls. Analysis of genotype interaction with age of onset age showed those aged less than 3.5 years at onset carrying the GG or AG+GG genotypes also had elevated ORs of 8.79- and 2.04-fold (p=0.0150 and 0.0413, respectively) for childhood ALL, but there was no such difference for those having an age at onset of 3.5 years or more. Our results indicate that the MMP7 A-181G genotype interacts with age and gender and may serve as an early and predictive biomarker for childhood ALL. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  16. Is low self-esteem a risk factor for depression among adolescents? an analytical study with interventional component

    Jayanthi P, Rajamanickam Rajkumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self – esteem is an important factor for helping persons deal with life stressors. It is an important determinant of psychological well-being that is particularly problematic during an adolescent life stage. Low self-esteem might contribute to depression through both interpersonal and intrapersonal pathways. Many theories of depression postulate that low self esteem is a defining feature of depression. Aims: Self-esteem in adolescents has been associated with a number of risk and protective factors in previous studies. This study examined the relationship between low self esteem and depression among adolescents. Methods: This study used a case control (retrospective design. Samples of 1120 adolescents, aged 14-17 years were selected for the study. Screening was done by using MINI-KID and the level of depression was assessed by using Beck depression inventory. Self esteem was measured by Rosenberg self esteem scale. Odds Ratio and Multivariate logistic regression were used to examine the relation between self-esteem and socio-demographic variables. Results: The odds ratio analysis revealed that adolescents who had low self esteem found to have 3.7 times (95% CI=1.9-6.9 and p- value 0.001 more risk of developing depression than the adolescents who had high self esteem. Conclusions: The findings implied that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression among adolescents. Adolescents with low self esteem have to be identified earlier and prompt interventions will prevent future psychiatric illnesses. As an intervention towards the educational component pamphlet was distributed to the adolescents, parents and teachers. A concept programme called “Self Esteem Education & Development – SEED” programme, is planned for, from High school level.

  17. Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

    Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

    2017-11-15

    This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still

  18. The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

    Ernest Dube

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

  19. A method for risk-informed safety significance categorization using the analytic hierarchy process and bayesian belief networks

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    A risk-informed safety significance categorization (RISSC) is to categorize structures, systems, or components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) into two or more groups, according to their safety significance using both probabilistic and deterministic insights. In the conventional methods for the RISSC, the SSCs are quantitatively categorized according to their importance measures for the initial categorization. The final decisions (categorizations) of SSCs, however, are qualitatively made by an expert panel through discussions and adjustments of opinions by using the probabilistic insights compiled in the initial categorization process and combining the probabilistic insights with the deterministic insights. Therefore, owing to the qualitative and linear decision-making process, the conventional methods have the demerits as follows: (1) they are very costly in terms of time and labor, (2) it is not easy to reach the final decision, when the opinions of the experts are in conflict and (3) they have an overlapping process due to the linear paradigm (the categorization is performed twice - first, by the engineers who propose the method, and second, by the expert panel). In this work, a method for RISSC using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and bayesian belief networks (BBN) is proposed to overcome the demerits of the conventional methods and to effectively arrive at a final decision (or categorization). By using the AHP and BBN, the expert panel takes part in the early stage of the categorization (that is, the quantification process) and the safety significance based on both probabilistic and deterministic insights is quantified. According to that safety significance, SSCs are quantitatively categorized into three categories such as high safety significant category (Hi), potentially safety significant category (Po), or low safety significant category (Lo). The proposed method was applied to the components such as CC-V073, CV-V530, and SI-V644 in Ulchin Unit

  20. SMAD7 loci contribute to risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population.

    Ji, Jiansong; Xu, Min; Zhao, Zhongwei; Tu, Jianfei; Gao, Jun; Lu, Chenying; Song, Jingjing; Chen, Weiqian; Chen, Minjiang; Fan, Xiaoxi; Cheng, Xingyao; Lan, Xilin; Li, Jie

    2016-04-19

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified three loci at 18q21 (rs4939827, rs7240004, and rs7229639), which maps to SMAD7 loci, were associated with risk of diseases of the digestive system. However, their associations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remain unknown. A case-control study was conducted to assess genetic associations with HCC risk and clinicopathologic development among Chinese Han population. Three SNPs were genotyped among 1,000 HCC cases and 1,000 controls using Sequenom Mass-ARRAY technology. We observed statistically significant associations for the three SMAD7 loci and HCC risk. Each copy of minor allele was associated with a 1.24-1.36 fold increased risk of HCC. We also found that significant differences were observed between rs4939827 and clinical TNM stage and vascular invasion, as well as rs7240004 and vascular invasion. We also established a genetic risk score (GRS) by summing the risk alleles. The GRS was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC and vascular invasion. Our data revealed the SMAD7 loci is associated with HCC susceptibility and its clinicopathologic development.

  1. The contribution of disaster management to integrated flood risk management strategies: lessons learned from the Netherlands

    Kolen, B.; van Alphen, J

    2017-01-01

    An integrated flood risk management (IFRM) strategy consist of a comprehensive set of measures to reduce the risk: protective measures (to reduce the probability of a flood), and land use planning and disaster management (to reduce the consequences of a flood. In the Netherlands this is called a

  2. The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk.

    Vachon, Celine M; Pankratz, V Shane; Scott, Christopher G; Haeberle, Lothar; Ziv, Elad; Jensen, Matthew R; Brandt, Kathleen R; Whaley, Dana H; Olson, Janet E; Heusinger, Katharina; Hack, Carolin C; Jud, Sebastian M; Beckmann, Matthias W; Schulz-Wendtland, Ruediger; Tice, Jeffrey A; Norman, Aaron D; Cunningham, Julie M; Purrington, Kristen S; Easton, Douglas F; Sellers, Thomas A; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fasching, Peter A; Couch, Fergus J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated whether a 76-locus polygenic risk score (PRS) and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density were independent risk factors within three studies (1643 case patients, 2397 control patients) using logistic regression models. We incorporated the PRS odds ratio (OR) into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk-prediction model while accounting for its attributable risk and compared five-year absolute risk predictions between models using area under the curve (AUC) statistics. All statistical tests were two-sided. BI-RADS density and PRS were independent risk factors across all three studies (P interaction = .23). Relative to those with scattered fibroglandular densities and average PRS (2(nd) quartile), women with extreme density and highest quartile PRS had 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74 to 4.12) increased risk, while those with low density and PRS had reduced risk (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.51). PRS added independent information (P Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Web Analytics

    EPA’s Web Analytics Program collects, analyzes, and provides reports on traffic, quality assurance, and customer satisfaction metrics for EPA’s website. The program uses a variety of analytics tools, including Google Analytics and CrazyEgg.

  4. Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

    Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

    2011-09-10

    In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The contribution of human factors to risks from radioactive material transport

    Blenkin, J.J.; Ridsdale, E.; Wilkinson, H.L.

    1998-01-01

    The use of probabilistic risk assessment to assess the safety of radioactive material transport operations is well accepted. However, quantitative risk assessment of radioactive material transport operations have generally not explicitly considered human factors in estimating risks. Given the high profile of human factors as the root cause of many serious transport incidents omission of an explicit consideration of human factors in a risk assessment could lead to assessments losing credibility. In addition, scrutiny of radioactive material transport incident databases reveals a large number of operational incidents and minor accidents that would have been avoided if more attention had been paid to human factors aspects, and provides examples of instances where improvements have been achieved. This paper examines the areas of radioactive material transport risk assessments (both qualitative and quantitative) which could be strengthened by further examination of the impact of human errors. It is concluded that a more complete and detailed understanding of the effects of human factors on the risks from radioactive material transport operations has been obtained. Quality assurance has a key part to play in ensuring that packages are correctly manufactured and prepared for transport. Risk assessments of radioactive material transport operations can be strengthened by concentrating on the key human factors effects. (authors)

  6. Multivariate analysis of structure and contribution per shares made by potential risk factors at malignant neoplasms in trachea, bronchial tubes and lung

    G.T. Aydinov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the results of multivariate analysis of structure and contribution per shares made by potential risk factors at malignant neoplasms in trachea, bronchial tubes and lung. The authors used specialized databases comprising personified records on oncologic diseases in Taganrog, Rostov region, over 1986-2015 (30,684 registered cases of malignant neoplasms, including 3,480 cases of trachea cancer, bronchial tubes cancer, and lung cancer. When carrying out analytical research we applied both multivariate statistical techniques (factor analysis and hierarchical cluster correlation analysis and conventional techniques of epidemiologic analysis including etiologic fraction calculation (EF, as well as an original technique of assessing actual (epidemiologic risk. Average long-term morbidity with trachea, bronchial tubes and lung cancer over 2011-2015 amounts to 46.64 o / oooo . Over the last 15 years a stable decreasing trend has formed, annual average growth being – 1.22 %. This localization holds the 3rd rank place in oncologic morbidity structure, its specific weight being 10.02 %. We determined etiological fraction (EF for smoking as a priority risk factor causing trachea, bronchial tubes and lung cancer; this fraction amounts to 76.19 % for people aged 40 and older, and to 81.99 % for those aged 60 and older. Application of multivariate statistical techniques (factor analysis and cluster correlation analysis in this research enabled us to make factor structure more simple; namely, to highlight, interpret, give a quantitative estimate of self-descriptiveness and rank four group (latent potential risk factors causing lung cancer.

  7. Contribution to the analytical and numerical evaluation of oil well equilibrium for any cross section under a uniform pressure and an anisotropic stress field

    Bouziane, A.

    1989-09-01

    The integral equation, the finite element and an analytical method are used and compared to compute the state of equilibrium of an oil well. This well is of whatever cross section and is subjected to a uniform pressure and an anisotropic stress field at the infinity. In the first part, the equations of the Mechanics of deformable solids are recalled using dual vectorial spaces theory. These equations are briefly introduced by using a four spaces diagram. In the second part, an analytical method using the complex potentials developed by Muskhelishvili is used to solve the problem. In the third part, three methods of integral equations are developed (direct and indirect). The stress boundary conditions at infinity are taken into account by superimposing a particular solution to the fundamental solution. With such a method, both displacements and stresses are correctly represented as well on the boundary as inside the domain. The finite element method is developed in the fourth part. For complicate shapes of well cross section the used automatic mesh generator does not seem well adapted. In conclusion, the integral equation method gives the results which are in the best agreement with the analytical solutions.

  8. Contribution of company affiliation and social contacts to risk estimates of between-farm transmission of avian influenza.

    Leibler, Jessica H; Carone, Marco; Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2010-03-25

    Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from company affiliation, with farms in the same company group as the index farm facing as much as a 5-fold increase in risk compared to farms contracted with different companies. Employment of part-time workers contributed to significant increases in risk in most scenarios, notably for farms who hired day-laborers. Social visits were significantly less important in determining risk. Biosecurity interventions should be based on information on industry structure and company affiliation, and include part-time workers as potentially unrecognized sources of viral transmission. Modeling efforts to understand pathogen transmission in the context of industrial food animal production should consider company affiliation in addition to geospatial factors and pathogen characteristics. Restriction of social contacts among farmers may be less useful in reducing between-farm transmission.

  9. Dietary fat, body weight, and cancer: contributions of studies in rodents to understanding these cancer risk factors in humans.

    Rogers, A E; Sullivan, L M; Hafer, L J

    1999-12-01

    Understanding diet and energy balance as risk factors for breast, colon, and other cancers requires information on the contribution of each factor and of interactions among factors to cancer risk. Rodent models for breast cancer provide extensive data on effects of dietary fat and calories, energy balance, body weight gain, and physical activity on tumor development. Analyses of the combined data from many studies have shown clearly that quality and quantity of dietary fat and energy balance contribute independently to increased mammary gland tumorigenesis. These findings were seen in female rats fed diets high in fat (35-40% of calories) compared to rats fed control diets, with approximately 10% of calories as fat (Fay and Freedman, 1997, Breast Cancer Res. Treat. 46, 215-223). The methods used permit comparison of experimental and epidemiological data, and they may be useful in extrapolating between species and developing public health recommendations. In addition to the contributions of lifetime-diet composition, intake, energy balance, and physical activity to cancer risk, there are questions about the timing and duration of alterations in these factors and about the "dose-response" characteristics of cancer risk to the factors. Endocrine mechanisms may be significant in mammary gland tumor risk, but experimental and epidemiological data indicate that cancers at other sites, such as colon and liver, also are influenced by the factors listed. Other diet and lifestyle factors that influence energy, or specifically fat, metabolism may also affect risk for cancers that are promoted by increased intake of fat and calories. Studies of separate and interactive effects of dietary fat, black tea, weight gain, and mammary gland tumorigenesis (Rogers, et al, 1998, Carcinogenesis 19, 1269-1273) have been analyzed. Using adjustment of carcinogenesis endpoints for body weight, tumor burden, and latency, they were found to be related to weight gain within treatment groups in

  10. Hypoadiponectinemia in overweight children contributes to a negative metabolic risk profile 6 years later

    Kynde, Iben; Heitmann, Berit L; Bygbjerg, Ib C

    2009-01-01

    follow-up data 6 years later (n = 169). Cardiometabolic risk profile was calculated using a continuous composite score derived from summing of 6 factors standardized to the sample means (Z scores): body mass index, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, total serum cholesterol to serum high...... adiponectin at baseline was inversely associated with metabolic risk score 6 years later (P = .04). In childhood, both hypoadiponectinemia and hyperleptinemia accompany a negative metabolic risk profile. In addition, circulating plasma adiponectin may be a useful biomarker to identify overweight children......Prognostic biomarkers are needed to identify children at increased cardiometabolic risk. The objective was to study whether markers of metabolism and inflammation, for example, circulating plasma adiponectin, leptin, interleukin-8, and hepatocyte growth factor, are associated with cardiometabolic...

  11. Quality of life in pediatric cancer survivors: contributions of parental distress and psychosocial family risk.

    Racine, N M; Khu, M; Reynolds, K; Guilcher, G M T; Schulte, F S M

    2018-02-01

    Pediatric survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk of poor quality of life and social-emotional outcomes following treatment. The relationship between parent psychological distress and child adjustment in pediatric cancer survivors has been well established. However, limited research has examined the factors that may buffer this association. The current study examined the associations between psychosocial family risk factors, parental psychological distress, and health-related quality of life (hrql) in pediatric cancer survivors. Fifty-two pediatric cancer survivors (34 males, 18 females, mean age = 11.92) and their parents were recruited from a long-term cancer survivor clinic. Children and their parents who consented to participate completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0. Parents completed a demographic information form, the Psychosocial Assessment Tool (pat 2.0) and the Brief Symptom Inventory (bsi). The Intensity of Treatment Rating (itr-3) was evaluated by the research team. Multiple regression analyses revealed that parental psychological distress negatively predicted parent-reported hrql, while treatment intensity, gender, and psychosocial risk negatively predicted parent and child-reported hrql. Psychosocial risk moderated the association between parent psychological distress and parent-reported child hrql ( p = 0.03), whereby parents with high psychological distress but low levels of psychosocial risk reported their children to have higher hrql. Low levels of family psychosocial risk buffer the impact of parent psychological distress on child hrql in pediatric cancer survivors. The findings highlight the importance of identifying parents and families with at-risk psychological distress and psychosocial risk in order to provide targeted support interventions to mitigate the impact on hrql.

  12. The contribution from psychological, social, and organizational work factors to risk of disability retirement

    Knardahl, Stein; Johannessen, Håkon A.; Sterud, Tom

    2017-01-01

    Background: Previous studies indicate that psychological, social, and organizational factors at work contribute to health, motivation, absence from work, and functional ability. The objective of the study was to assess the current state of knowledge of the contribution of psychological, social, a...... social support from ones superior. Conclusions: Psychological and organizational factors at work contribute to disability retirement with the most robust evidence for the role of work control. We recommend the measurement of specific exposure factors in future studies.......Background: Previous studies indicate that psychological, social, and organizational factors at work contribute to health, motivation, absence from work, and functional ability. The objective of the study was to assess the current state of knowledge of the contribution of psychological, social......, and organizational factors to disability retirement by a systematic review and meta-analyses. Methods: Data sources: A systematic literature search for studies of retirement due to disability in Medline, Embase, and PsychINFO was performed. Reference lists of relevant articles were hand-searched for additional...

  13. Genetic and environmental contributions to cardiovascular disease risk in American Indians: the strong heart family study.

    North, Kari E; Howard, Barbara V; Welty, Thomas K; Best, Lyle G; Lee, Elisa T; Yeh, J L; Fabsitz, Richard R; Roman, Mary J; MacCluer, Jean W

    2003-02-15

    The aims of the Strong Heart Family Study are to clarify the genetic determinants of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in American Indians and to map and identify genes for CVD susceptibility. The authors describe the design of the Strong Heart Family Study (conducted between 1998 and 1999) and evaluate the heritabilities of CVD risk factors in American Indians from this study. In the first phase of the study, approximately 950 individuals, aged 18 years or more, in 32 extended families, were examined. The examination consisted of a personal interview, physical examination, laboratory tests, and an ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries. The phenotypes measured during the physical examination included anthropometry, lipoproteins, blood pressure, glycemic status, and clotting factors. Heritabilities for CVD risk factor phenotypes were estimated using a variance component approach and the program SOLAR. After accounting for the effects of covariates, the authors detected significant heritabilities for many CVD risk factor phenotypes (e.g., high density lipoprotein cholesterol (heritability = 0.50) and diastolic blood pressure (heritability = 0.34)). These results suggest that heredity explains a substantial proportion of the variability of CVD risk factors and that these heritabilities are large enough to warrant a search for major risk factor genes.

  14. Risk and Protective Factors Contributing to Depressive Symptoms in Vietnamese American College Students

    Han, Meekyung; Lee, Mary

    2011-01-01

    With the demographic shifts the United States faces, understanding the contributing factors to mental well-being among minority college students is crucial. This study examines the roles of parental and peer attachment, intergenerational conflict, and perceived racial discrimination on depressive symptoms while also analyzing the mediational role…

  15. Contribution to the study of X-ray emission induced by accelerated bromine and krypton ions and possibilities of analytical applications

    Tenorio Castilleros, M.D.

    1986-01-01

    In view of analytical applications the X-ray emission induced by 3 to 85 MeV Br and Kr ions has been studied. Thick target yields have been measured and ionization cross section for K and L shells have been calculated. The X-ray emission rates and energy shifts have also been determined. The results are discussed in the frame of the actually existing models for inner shell ionization in atomic collisions. As a practical application azteque ceramics have been analyzed. The possibilities and the difficulties of the technic are emphasized [fr

  16. An overdue alignment of risk and resilience? A conceptual contribution to community resilience.

    Mochizuki, Junko; Keating, Adriana; Liu, Wei; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard

    2018-04-01

    A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  17. [Assessment of risk of burden in construction: improvement interventions and contribution of the competent physician].

    Martinelli, R; Tarquini, M

    2012-01-01

    Three construction companies in three years have changed the operating modes, making use of innovative carpentry, with little amount of equipment, improved usability of the site, reduced cleaning time, less manual handling and reduced risk of accidents. The Competent Doctor has participated in the review of the risk assessment of manual handling: data has been acquired on musculoskeletal disorders to compare, in terms of this innovation, the average trend and changes, with encouraging results in terms of incidence of musculoskeletal disorders, absenteeism due to illness by these causes, new cases of lumbar diseases. It remains difficult in building to assess manual handling risk, but the collaboration between the Employer, Prevention and Protection Service and Competent Doctor, thanks to the greater attention that the design subject to these issues, suggests improvements and further steps to extend to all phases of operation of building.

  18. Nature, Nurture, and Cancer Risks: Genetic and Nutritional Contributions to Cancer.

    Theodoratou, Evropi; Timofeeva, Maria; Li, Xue; Meng, Xiangrui; Ioannidis, John P A

    2017-08-21

    It is speculated that genetic variants are associated with differential responses to nutrients (known as gene-diet interactions) and that these variations may be linked to different cancer risks. In this review, we critically evaluate the evidence across 314 meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials of dietary risk factors and the five most common cancers (breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, and stomach). We also critically evaluate the evidence across 13 meta-analyses of observational studies of gene-diet interactions for the same cancers. Convincing evidence for association was found only for the intake of alcohol and whole grains in relation to colorectal cancer risk. Three nutrient associations had highly suggestive evidence and another 15 associations had suggestive evidence. Among the examined gene-diet interactions, only one had moderately strong evidence.

  19. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Indirect boundary element method for three dimensional problems. Analytical solution for contribution to wave field by triangular element; Sanjigen kansetsu kyokai yosoho. Sankakukei yoso no kiyo no kaisekikai

    Yokoi, T [Building Research Institute, Tokyo (Japan); Sanchez-Sesma, F [Universidad National Autonoma de Mexico, (Mexico). Institute de Ingenieria

    1997-05-27

    Formulation is introduced for discretizing a boundary integral equation into an indirect boundary element method for the solution of 3-dimensional topographic problems. Yokoi and Takenaka propose an analytical solution-capable reference solution (solution for the half space elastic body with flat free surface) to problems of topographic response to seismic motion in a 2-dimensional in-plane field. That is to say, they propose a boundary integral equation capable of effectively suppressing the non-physical waves that emerge in the result of computation in the wake of the truncation of the discretized ground surface making use of the wave field in a semi-infinite elastic body with flat free surface. They apply the proposed boundary integral equation discretized into the indirect boundary element method to solve some examples, and succeed in proving its validity. In this report, the equation is expanded to deal with 3-dimensional topographic problems. A problem of a P-wave vertically landing on a flat and free surface is solved by the conventional boundary integral equation and the proposed boundary integral equation, and the solutions are compared with each other. It is found that the new method, different from the conventional one, can delete non-physical waves from the analytical result. 4 figs.

  1. Modelling the contribution of family history and variation in single nucleotide polymorphisms to risk of schizophrenia

    Agerbo, Esben; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Wiuf, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies indicate that having any family member with schizophrenia increases the risk of schizophrenia in the probands. However, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have accounted for little of this variation. The aim of this study was to use a population-based sample to explore...

  2. Multiplicity and early gestational age contribute to an increased risk of cerebral palsy from assisted conception

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Grove, Jakob; Schendel, Diana

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This paper assesses the risk of cerebral palsy (CP) in children born after assisted conception compared with children born after natural conception (NC). METHODS: This population based follow-up study included all 588,967 children born in Denmark from 1995 to 2003. Assisted conception...

  3. The contribution of educational class in improving accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction across European regions

    Ferrario, Marco M; Veronesi, Giovanni; Chambless, Lloyd E

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether educational class, an index of socioeconomic position, improves the accuracy of the SCORE cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. METHODS: In a pooled analysis of 68 455 40-64-year-old men and women, free from coronary heart disease at baseline, from 47...

  4. Investigation of Factors Contributing to Diabetes Risk in American Indian/Alaska Native Youth

    Islam-Zwart, Kayleen; Cawston, Alvina

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship between family history, sedentary behaviors, and childhood risk for type 2 diabetes. Participants were 480 students attending schools on or near an American Indian reservation. Data were collected through survey and BMI measurement. Children who frequently watched television or played video games did not…

  5. Contribution of Congenital Anomalies to Preterm Birth Risk in the Netherlands: poster presentation

    Mohangoo1, A.; Lanting, C.; Bennebroek Gravenhorst, J.; Verloove-Vanhorick, P.; Buitendijk, S.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To asses the extents to which congenital anomalies affect risk of preterm birth. Methods: For the present study, we analysed data on 1,972,058 newborns registered in the Netherlands Perinatal Registry database (inclusion criteria 16 weeks of gestation). Logistic regression techniques were

  6. Older adult mistreatment risk screening: contribution to the validation of a screening tool in a domestic setting.

    Lindenbach, Jeannette M; Larocque, Sylvie; Lavoie, Anne-Marise; Garceau, Marie-Luce

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACTThe hidden nature of older adult mistreatment renders its detection in the domestic setting particularly challenging. A validated screening instrument that can provide a systematic assessment of risk factors can facilitate this detection. One such instrument, the "expanded Indicators of Abuse" tool, has been previously validated in the Hebrew language in a hospital setting. The present study has contributed to the validation of the "e-IOA" in an English-speaking community setting in Ontario, Canada. It consisted of two phases: (a) a content validity review and adaptation of the instrument by experts throughout Ontario, and (b) an inter-rater reliability assessment by home visiting nurses. The adaptation, the "Mistreatment of Older Adult Risk Factors" tool, offers a comprehensive tool for screening in the home setting. This instrument is significant to professional practice as practitioners working with older adults will be better equipped to assess for risk of mistreatment.

  7. A Nondegenerate Code of Deleterious Variants in Mendelian Loci Contributes to Complex Disease Risk

    Blair, David R.; Lyttle, Christopher S.; Mortensen, Jonathan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although countless highly penetrant variants have been associated with Mendelian disorders, the genetic etiologies underlying complex diseases remain largely unresolved. By mining the medical records of over 110 million patients, we examine the extent to which Mendelian variation contributes to c...... of complex diseases. Overall, this study illustrates a complementary approach for mapping complex disease loci and provides unique predictions concerning the etiologies of specific diseases....

  8. Risk Assessment: Factors Contributing to Discomfort for Menopausal Women in Workplace

    Jafari, Mehdi; Seifi, Bahar; Heidari, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to review the Factors contributing to discomfort for menopausal women in workplace and the perceived effects of working conditions on menopausal symptoms, and to produce recommendations for managers and women. This study was a review article. We searched PubMed and Science Direct for articles related to menopause and workplace. Keywords included: menopause AND workplace OR occupational health or menopausal women AND managers. Because we aimed to update the litera...

  9. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  10. Risk contribution from low power and shutdown of a pressurized water reactor

    Chu, T.L.; Pratt, W.T.

    1997-01-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 PRA for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. 12 refs., 7 tabs

  11. Risk Sharing in Corporate and Public Finance: The Contribution of Islamic Finance

    Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial crises have become a recurring problem for modern economies with increasingly detrimental fallouts. Risk-sharing finance (RSF contracts may be the best instrument for addressing the problem and its fallout, and in particular the risk-sharing principles of Islamic finance offer a potential alternative. This paper offers some preliminary thoughts on the design and implementation of RSF for both private and public sector funding, for revenue and non-revenue generating projects. It is argued that such form of financing avoids the leverage of conventional debt, minimizes the costs of dilution, reduces macroeconomic vulnerability, and enhances financial inclusion. It also has the potential to be a less risky alternative for developing countries to finance public spending and economic growth. JEL Classifications: G32, P43, O16

  12. A population study of the contribution of medical comorbidity to the risk of prematurity in blacks.

    Ehrenthal, Deborah B; Jurkovitz, Claudine; Hoffman, Matthew; Kroelinger, Charlan; Weintraub, William

    2007-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the higher prevalence of medical comorbidities among black women accounts for their increased risk of prematurity. A population-based regional cohort of women receiving obstetric care for singleton pregnancies at a large community hospital between 2003 and 2006 were analyzed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Data for 18,624 consecutive births found increased odds of adverse outcomes for black compared to white women: prematurity OR = 1.6 (1.4-1.8), extreme prematurity OR = 2.5 (2.0-3.2). Logistic regression modeling identified black race, age prematurity among blacks. Though there is a greater burden of health risk among black women, this did not account for the higher rates of low birthweight and prematurity.

  13. STAT4 rs7574865 polymorphism contributes to the risk of type 1 diabetes: a meta analysis.

    Li, Chaolin; Zhao, Lujie; Wang, Wei; Li, Huafeng; Meng, Xiaomei; Chen, Shulin

    2015-01-01

    The signal transducer and activator of transcription 4 (STAT4) rs7574865 polymorphism has been indicated to be correlated with type 1 diabetes (T1D) susceptibility, but study results are still debatable. Thus, a meta-analysis was conducted. The electronic databases PubMed, Embase, CNKI, and Web of Science (ISI) were searched to find eligible studies. Data were extracted and pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. A significant association was found between STAT4 rs7574865 polymorphism and T1D risk (OR=1.30; 95% CI, 1.13-1.48; Prs7574865 polymorphism was associated with early-onset T1D risk (OR=1.43; 95% CI, 1.16-1.77; Prs7574865 polymorphism may be associated with T1D development.

  14. Teen Driving Risk and Prevention: Naturalistic Driving Research Contributions and Challenges

    Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Gershon, Pnina; Klauer, Sheila G.; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2017-01-01

    Naturalistic driving (ND) methods may be particularly useful for research on young driver crash risk. Novices are not safe drivers initially, but tend to improve rapidly, although the pace of learning is highly variable. However, knowledge is lacking about how best to reduce the learning curve and the variability in the development of safe driving judgment. A great deal has been learned from recent naturalistic driving (ND) studies that have included young drivers, providing objective informa...

  15. Intervention with at-risk families: contributions from a psycho-educational perspective

    Hidalgo García, María Victoria; Menéndez Álvarez-Dardet, Susana; Sánchez Hidalgo, José; Lorence Lara, Bárbara; Jiménez García, Lucía

    2010-01-01

    Intervention with at-risk families has changed greatly over recent decades. Thus, intervention based on welfare and deficit theory has given way to preventive intervention that seeks to strengthen and preserve families. Within the framework of this approach, there are psycho-educational programs for parents, the main characteristics of which are presented in this paper. An example of this kind of preventive intervention for parents is the family program coordinated by the Seville Cit...

  16. Contribution of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP method for supporting the decision to outsource or internalize activities in the context of technology-based company

    Luciana Paula Reis

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of business model requires, among other decisions, the structure of the value chain of an emerging new organization. This structure depends on the decision to outsource or internalize sets of processes and their activities. This decision fundamentally strategic, demand a correct definition of the activities that actually add value to the business, and therefore desirable a methodology able to assist the manager in the process of decision making. This paper aims to propose a process to aid decision to outsource or internalize activities in the context of a technology-based company, using the strategy of action research methods associated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and focus group technique. The study has resulted in the structuring of the decision process and criteria relevant to the identification of activities to be internalized by the technology-based company.

  17. The Contribution of Kawada to the Analytical Solution for the Velocity Induced by a Helical Vortex Filament and Modern Applications of Helical Vortices

    Fukumoto, Yasuhide; Okulov, Valery; Wood, David H.

    2017-01-01

    a comprehensive treatment of deriving the induced velocity by helical vortices with a view to applying it to the propeller theory. This paper recollects Kawada’s contribution, together with his life devoted to lead the Japanese aeronautical engineering in the time of its dawning....

  18. Big data in health care: using analytics to identify and manage high-risk and high-cost patients.

    Bates, David W; Saria, Suchi; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Shah, Anand; Escobar, Gabriel

    2014-07-01

    The US health care system is rapidly adopting electronic health records, which will dramatically increase the quantity of clinical data that are available electronically. Simultaneously, rapid progress has been made in clinical analytics--techniques for analyzing large quantities of data and gleaning new insights from that analysis--which is part of what is known as big data. As a result, there are unprecedented opportunities to use big data to reduce the costs of health care in the United States. We present six use cases--that is, key examples--where some of the clearest opportunities exist to reduce costs through the use of big data: high-cost patients, readmissions, triage, decompensation (when a patient's condition worsens), adverse events, and treatment optimization for diseases affecting multiple organ systems. We discuss the types of insights that are likely to emerge from clinical analytics, the types of data needed to obtain such insights, and the infrastructure--analytics, algorithms, registries, assessment scores, monitoring devices, and so forth--that organizations will need to perform the necessary analyses and to implement changes that will improve care while reducing costs. Our findings have policy implications for regulatory oversight, ways to address privacy concerns, and the support of research on analytics. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  19. Prevalence of 10-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and Associated Risks in Canadian Adults: The Contribution of Cardiometabolic Risk Assessment Introduction

    Solmaz Setayeshgar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in adult Canadians. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR derived from 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome (MetS needs to be evaluated in Canadian adults. Objective. To determine CMR among Canadian adults by sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Subjects and Methods. Data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS, Cycle 1, 2007–2009, was used. Framingham Risk Score (FRS was implemented to predict 10-year risk of CVD, and metabolic syndrome was identified using the most recent criteria. The 10-year risk of CVD was multiplied by 1.5 in individuals with MetS to obtain CMR. Data were weighted and bootstrapped to be able to generalize the results nationally. Results and Conclusion. CMR gave more accurate estimation of 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults from 30 to 74 years than using only FRS. The 10-year risk of CVD in Canadian adults significantly increased when CMR was taken into account from 8.10% to 9.86%. The CVD risk increased by increase in age, decrease in education, and decrease in physical activity and in smokers. Canadians with medium risk of CVD consumed significantly less fruit and vegetable juice compared to Canadians with low risk. No other dietary differences were found.

  20. Contribution of DNA repair xeroderma pigmentosum group D genotypes to pancreatic cancer risk in the Chinese Han population

    Dong Yan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study aimed to determine the association between the polymorphisms and haplotypes in the xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD gene and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the Chinese Han population. SNaPshot was used for genotyping six SNP sites of the XPD gene. Comparisons of the correlations between different genotypes in combination with smoking and the susceptibility to pancreatic cancer were performed. Individual pancreatic cancer risk in patients who carry mutant C alleles (AC, CC, and AC+CC at rs13181 increased (p < 0.05. Taking non-smoking individuals who carry the AA genotype as a reference, and non-smoking individuals who carry mutant allele C (AC+CC, the risk of pancreatic cancer increased by 3.343 times in individuals who smoked ≥ 20 cigarettes daily, 3.309 times in individuals who smoked ≥ 14 packs per year, 5.011 times in individuals who smoked ≥ 24 packs per year, and 4.013 times in the individuals who smoked ≥ 37 packs per year (P < 0.05. In addition, haplotype analysis revealed that haplotype AGG, which comprised rs13181, rs3916874 and rs238415, was associated with a 1.401-fold increase in pancreatic cancer risk (p < 0.05. We conclude that the polymorphism of XPD Lys751Gln (rs13181 in combination with smoking contributes to increased risk of pancreatic cancer in the Chinese Han population. Haplotype AGG might be a susceptibility haplotype for pancreatic cancer.

  1. Risk contribution from low power, shutdown, and other operational modes beyond full power

    Whitehead, D.W.; Brown, T.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chu, T.L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)] [and others

    1995-04-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. A phased approach was used in Level 1. In Phase 1 the concept of plant operational states (POSs) was developed to provide a better representation of the plant as it transitions from power to nonpower operation. This included a coarse screening analysis of all POSs to identify vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) potential frequencies of core damage accidents, and to provide a foundation for a detailed Phase 2 analysis. In Phase 2, selected POSs from both Grand Gulf and Surry were chosen for detailed analysis. For Grand Gulf, POS 5 (approximately cold shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage was selected. For Surry, three POSs representing the time the plant spends in midloop operation were chosen for analysis. These included POS 6 and POS 10 of a refueling outage and POS 6 of a drained maintenance outage. Level 1 and Level 2/3 results from both the Surry and Grand Gulf analyses are presented.

  2. Risk contribution from low power, shutdown, and other operational modes beyond full power

    Whitehead, D.W.; Brown, T.D.; Chu, T.L.; Pratt, W.T.

    1995-01-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. A phased approach was used in Level 1. In Phase 1 the concept of plant operational states (POSs) was developed to provide a better representation of the plant as it transitions from power to nonpower operation. This included a coarse screening analysis of all POSs to identify vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) potential frequencies of core damage accidents, and to provide a foundation for a detailed Phase 2 analysis. In Phase 2, selected POSs from both Grand Gulf and Surry were chosen for detailed analysis. For Grand Gulf, POS 5 (approximately cold shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage was selected. For Surry, three POSs representing the time the plant spends in midloop operation were chosen for analysis. These included POS 6 and POS 10 of a refueling outage and POS 6 of a drained maintenance outage. Level 1 and Level 2/3 results from both the Surry and Grand Gulf analyses are presented

  3. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    Annamária Magdás

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients, medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients, and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients. Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p=0.0113. Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7±23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p=0.0261. Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value.

  4. Contribution to Risk Analysis of a Standard Brewery: Application of a Hygiene Assessment System Survey

    Raposo, António; Salazar, Jairo; Pérez, Esteban; Sanjuán, Esther; Carrascosa, Conrado; Saavedra, Pedro; Millán, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    "Beer is a food product with a high consumption in Gran Canaria and the brewery industry is also present in this island. In order to carry out this study, it was designed a survey to assist in the assessment of risks from the facilities and infrastructures of the brewery, the raw materials used in the beer production and the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) plan. An initial assessment of various aspects of the industry has been conducted at the beginning of hygienic-sani...

  5. Contemporary approaches to reducing the risks of central counterparties based on the use of marginal contributions

    Utkin Viktor Sergeyevich

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To protect their own interests central counterparties has developed a number of procedures, including payment of guarantee margin by trading members as a means to ensure their positions. This article discusses a number of approaches, which attempt to simulate the risks of the Central Committee, as well as calculating the amount of margin and other resources in the event of insolvency. These approaches are based on the simulation of the three main types: (a statistical modeling; (b optimization modeling, and (c model of option pricing. The author incorporates the basic provisions of models.

  6. Familial, Social, and Individual Factors Contributing to Risk for Adolescent Substance Use

    Mackenzie Whitesell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC reveal high numbers of adolescent substance use in the United States. Substance use among adolescents can lead to increased risk of transmission of sexually transmitted infections, vehicular fatalities, juvenile delinquency, and other problems associated with physical and mental health. Adolescents are particularly susceptible to involvement in substance use due to the underdeveloped state of the adolescent brain, which can lead to reduced decision-making ability and increased long-term effects of drugs and alcohol. Understanding the causes of adolescent substance use is vital for successful prevention and intervention programs.

  7. Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

    Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

    2016-12-01

    Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  8. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  9. The Contribution of Equitation Science to Minimising Horse-Related Risks to Humans

    Melissa Starling

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Equitation science is an evidence-based approach to horse training and riding that focuses on a thorough understanding of both equine ethology and learning theory. This combination leads to more effective horse training, but also plays a role in keeping horse riders and trainers safe around horses. Equitation science underpins ethical equitation, and recognises the limits of the horse’s cognitive and physical abilities. Equitation is an ancient practice that has benefited from a rich tradition that sees it flourishing in contemporary sporting pursuits. Despite its history, horse-riding is an activity for which neither horses nor humans evolved, and it brings with it significant risks to the safety of both species. This review outlines the reasons horses may behave in ways that endanger humans and how training choices can exacerbate this. It then discusses the recently introduced 10 Principles of Equitation Science and explains how following these principles can minimise horse-related risk to humans and enhance horse welfare.

  10. Contribution to the study of embryo-foetal risks due to radiodiagnosis

    Vibert, M.-R.

    1976-01-01

    During the last few years appreciable numbers of women have undergone pelvic irradiations for diagnostic reasons at the start of an unsuspected pregnancy. In such cases opinions on the danger of radiations are often extremely divergent: - for some authors no danger exists at the doses used for radiodiagnosis and the pregnancy need never be terminated; - for others on the contrary the risk of malformation is not negligible and should lead to systematic therapeutic abortion. These over-categorically opposed attitudes motivated the present work. The aim is to estimate the embryo-foetal risks, especially as a function of the radiation dose given by dosimetry, but also to warm radiologists of the harm they may cause to a foetus when they irradiate the pelvis of a women of child-bearing age without accounting for the date of her latest period, hence a possible pregnancy. The conclusions to emerge from this work should always be interpreted with two important facts in mind: - One concerns the evaluation of irradiation. Dosimetry is not an exact measurement but only an indication, often underestimated, of the dose actually received and since the existence of a threshold dose has not been proved this evaluation must be considered with caution. - The other concerns the effect of this irradiation on the unborn child, about which little is known [fr

  11. Recalibration of blood analytes over 25 years in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study: impact of recalibration on chronic kidney disease prevalence and incidence.

    Parrinello, Christina M; Grams, Morgan E; Couper, David; Ballantyne, Christie M; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Eckfeldt, John H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef

    2015-07-01

    Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were remeasured in 2011-2013 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to remeasured values with Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and postrecalibration. Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values [Pearson r > 0.85 after removing outliers (median 4.5% of paired measurements)], but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values with correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4, and 5 prerecalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, and 29.4%, respectively; postrecalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, and 29.4%). For HDL cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1-4. Analytes remeasured in samples stored for approximately 25 years were highly correlated with original values, but 2 of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study. © 2015 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  12. Recalibration of blood analytes over 25 years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: The impact of recalibration on chronic kidney disease prevalence and incidence

    Parrinello, Christina M.; Grams, Morgan E.; Couper, David; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Hoogeveen, Ron C.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef

    2016-01-01

    Background Equivalence of laboratory tests over time is important for longitudinal studies. Even a small systematic difference (bias) can result in substantial misclassification. Methods We selected 200 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants attending all 5 study visits over 25 years. Eight analytes were re-measured in 2011–13 from stored blood samples from multiple visits: creatinine, uric acid, glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Original values were recalibrated to re-measured values using Deming regression. Differences >10% were considered to reflect substantial bias, and correction equations were applied to affected analytes in the total study population. We examined trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) pre- and post-recalibration. Results Repeat measures were highly correlated with original values (Pearson’s r>0.85 after removing outliers [median 4.5% of paired measurements]), but 2 of 8 analytes (creatinine and uric acid) had differences >10%. Original values of creatinine and uric acid were recalibrated to current values using correction equations. CKD prevalence differed substantially after recalibration of creatinine (visits 1, 2, 4 and 5 pre-recalibration: 21.7%, 36.1%, 3.5%, 29.4%; post-recalibration: 1.3%, 2.2%, 6.4%, 29.4%). For HDL-cholesterol, the current direct enzymatic method differed substantially from magnesium dextran precipitation used during visits 1–4. Conclusions Analytes re-measured in samples stored for ~25 years were highly correlated with original values, but two of the 8 analytes showed substantial bias at multiple visits. Laboratory recalibration improved reproducibility of test results across visits and resulted in substantial differences in CKD prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of consistent recalibration of laboratory assays in a cohort study. PMID:25952043

  13. Towards a better mastery of risks in the handling of nuclear fuel: the contributions of ergonomics

    Samson, L.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear fuel is handled under water in the reactor pool using procedures that have yet to be automated. The knowledge and skill of the operators is therefore of prime importance. Ergonomic consultants have prepared a report on the problems facing the operators when handling nuclear fuel? These problems have been addressed by the installation of a new system to detect and prevent incorrect operator commands and to provide software assistance in planning movements together with diagnostic functions. The new system has resulted in considerable time savings and a reduction in the risk of error. However, it has been necessary to modify the control software in the light of the handling strategies traditionally used by the operators. (author)

  14. Genetic variation in VEGF does not contribute significantly to the risk of congenital cardiovascular malformation.

    Helen R Griffin

    Full Text Available Several previous studies have investigated the role of common promoter variants in the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF gene in causing congenital cardiovascular malformation (CVM. However, results have been discrepant between studies and no study to date has comprehensively characterised variation throughout the gene. We genotyped 771 CVM cases, of whom 595 had the outflow tract malformation Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF, and carried out TDT and case-control analyses using haplotype-tagging SNPs in VEGF. We carried out a meta-analysis of previous case-control or family-based studies that had typed VEGF promoter SNPs, which included an additional 570 CVM cases. To identify rare variants potentially causative of CVM, we carried out mutation screening in all VEGF exons and splice sites in 93 TOF cases. There was no significant effect of any VEGF haplotype-tagging SNP on the risk of CVM in our analyses of 771 probands. When the results of this and all previous studies were combined, there was no significant effect of the VEGF promoter SNPs rs699947 (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.95-1.17]; rs1570360 (OR 1.17 [95% CI 0.99-1.26]; and rs2010963 (OR 1.04 [95% CI 0.93-1.16] on the risk of CVM in 1341 cases. Mutation screening of 93 TOF cases revealed no VEGF coding sequence variants and no changes at splice consensus sequences. Genetic variation in VEGF appears to play a small role, if any, in outflow tract CVM susceptibility.

  15. Risk contribution from low power and shutdown of a pressurized water reactor

    Chu, T.L.; Pratt, W.T.

    1997-01-01

    During 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (a pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (a boiling water reactor), were selected for study by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, respectively. The program objectives included assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences, and other qualitative and quantitative results with full power accidents as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope included a Level 3 PRA for traditional internal events and a Level 1 PRA on fire, flooding, and seismically induced core damage sequences. A phased approach was used in Level 1. In Phase 1 the concept of plant operational states (POSs) was developed to provide a better representation of the plant as it transitions from power to non power operation. This included a coarse screening analysis of all POSs to identify vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) potential frequencies of core damage accidents, and to provide a foundation for a detailed Phase 2 analysis. In Phase 2, selected POSs from both Grand Gulf and Surry were chosen for detailed analysis. For Grand Gulf, POS 5 (approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications) during a refueling outage was selected. For Surry, three POSs representing the time the plant spends in mid loop operation were chosen for analysis. Level 1 and Level 2/3 results from the Surry analyses are presented

  16. Contribution of environmental conditions in dental offices of Antioquia to the risk of mercury contamination

    Jairo A. Ruiz C

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is a product from the project “Environmental Management of Dental Amalgam in the State of Antioquia” which was carried out by the following research groups belonging to the University of Antioquia: Science and Biomedical Technology, Precious Materials, and Pirometallurgical and Materials Researches, as well as the private company New Stetic S. A., between February 2005 and February 2007. Objective: to describe the environmental conditions in 30 big dental offices of the State of Antioquia, Colombia. Those dental offices having more than five dental chairs in the same work place were defined as “big” for the purpose of this project. Due to the fact that these dental offices represents 85% of the population of reference, the results described in this article can be consequently considered as is they were derived from a census. The description is made bearing in mind the people who are exposed to the risk of mercury contamination due to their occupation. Materials and method: an observation tool was designed in order to be applied in each dental office. It contained aspects as floor and wall characteristics, ventilation, room temperature, storing place for mercury, elements for handling amalgam scraps, and those activities which deviate from the regular dental service in the same site. Each dental office was visited by a research engineer and an advanced engineering student on a previously defined date. The researchers were trained in advance to collect the information. Results: it was found that some big dental offices have inadequate conditions in their premises for offering their services, and do not have a good handling of the environmental conditions. That’s why immediate actions are mandatory to minimize the risk of mercury contamination.

  17. Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis.

    McIntosh, Andrew M; Hall, Lynsey S; Zeng, Yanni; Adams, Mark J; Gibson, Jude; Wigmore, Eleanor; Hagenaars, Saskia P; Davies, Gail; Fernandez-Pujals, Ana Maria; Campbell, Archie I; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S; Porteous, David J; Deary, Ian J; Smith, Daniel J; Nicholl, Barbara I; Hinds, David A; Jones, Amy V; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Smith, Blair H; Hocking, Lynne J

    2016-08-01

    Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS data, were associated with

  18. Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis.

    Andrew M McIntosh

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS. We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study.Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960, a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9% that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%. Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68 and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19. Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS data, were associated

  19. Evidence for vivianite formation and its contribution to long-term phosphorus retention in a recent lake sediment: a novel analytical approach

    M. Rothe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Vivianite, Fe3(PO42 · 8 H2O, is a ferrous iron phosphate mineral which forms in waterlogged soils and sediments. The phosphorus (P bound in its crystal lattice is considered to be immobilised because vivianite is stable under anoxic, reducing, sedimentary conditions. Thus, vivianite formation can make a major contribution to P retention during early diagenesis. Much remains unknown about vivianite in sediments, because technical challenges have rendered direct identification and quantification difficult. To identify vivianite and assess its significance for P burial during early diagenesis we studied the consequences of a 1992/1993 in-lake application of FeCl3 and Fe(OH3 aimed at restoring Lake Groß-Glienicke (Berlin, Germany. In a novel approach, we firstly applied a heavy-liquid separation to the iron-rich surface sediments which allowed direct identification of vivianite by X-ray diffraction in the high-density (ρ > 2.3 g cm−3 sediment fraction. Secondly, we assessed the contribution of vivianite to P retention, combining results from chemical digestion with magnetic susceptibility data derived from magnetic hysteresis measurements. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the dark blue spherical vivianite nodules were 40–180 μm in diameter, and formed of platy- and needle-shaped crystal aggregates. Although equilibrium calculations indicated supersaturation of vivianite throughout the upper 30 cm of the sediment, the vivianite deposits were homogeneously distributed within, and restricted to, the upper 23 cm only. Thus, supersaturated pore water alone cannot serve as a reliable predictor for the in situ formation of vivianite. In Lake Groß -Glienicke, vivianite formation continues to be triggered by the artificial iron amendment more than 20 yr ago, significantly contributing to P retention in surface sediments.

  20. The contribution of DNA apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease genotype and smoking habit to Taiwan lung cancer risk.

    Chen, Wei-Chun; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Hsia, Te-Chun; Chang, Wen-Shin; Lin, Liang-Yi; Liang, Shinn-Jye; Tu, Chih-Yen; Cheng, Wei-Erh; Chen, Hung-Jen; Wang, Shu-Ming; Bau, da-Tian

    2013-06-01

    To evaluate the association and interaction of genotypic polymorphism the gene for DNA-apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease (APEX1) with personal smoking habit and lung cancer risk in Taiwan, the polymorphic variants of APEX1, Asp(148)Glu (rs1130409), were analyzed in association with lung cancer risk, and their joint effect with personal smoking habits on lung cancer susceptibility was discussed. In this hospital-based case-control study, 358 patients with lung cancer and 716 cancer-free controls, frequency-matched by age and sex, were recruited and genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The results showed that the percentages of TT, TG and GG APEX1 Asp(148)Glu genotypes were not significantly different at 43.0%, 41.1% and 15.9% in the lung cancer patient group and 39.9%, 46.1% and 14.0% in non-cancer control group, respectively. We further analyzed the genetic-lifestyle effects on lung cancer risk and found the contribution of APEX1 Asp(148)Glu genotypes to lung cancer susceptibility was neither enhanced in the cigarette smokers nor in the non-smokers (p=0.3550 and 0.8019, respectively). Our results provide evidence that the non-synonymous polymorphism of APEX1 Asp(148)Glu may not be directly associated with lung cancer risk, nor enhance the effects of smoking habit on lung cancer development.

  1. [The contributing risk factors, prevention and treatment of functional dependence among the oldest-old and elderly subjects].

    Liu, Dianrong; Tan, Jiping; Guo, Yuhe; Ye, Guanghua; Zhu, Linqi; Zhang, Jun; Li, Yinghao; Deng, Yucheng; Wang, Guichen; Wang, Luning

    2014-10-01

    To compare the risk factors on the functional dependence between the oldest-old and elderly veterans. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among veterans ( ≥ 60 years of age) lived in 44 veterans' communities in Beijing. The socio-demographic information and history of non-communicable chronic diseases were collected via face-to-face interviews, and the functional status was assessed by the 20-item version of the Activities of Daily Living Scale. The risk factors associated with increased hazard of the functional dependence in the oldest-old ( ≥ 80 years old) were cognitive impairment, extrapyramidal diseases, cerebral infarction, transient ischemic attack, sleep disorders, hypnotics, osteoarthrosis, hypertension and fall with the odds ratio (OR) of 1.241-2.962 (all P fall, cardiovascular diseases, osteoarthrosis and hearing loss were the risk factors for that in the elderly subjects (aged 60-79 years). The OR was 1.232-5.790 (all P risk of functional dependence in both the oldest-old and elderly people. Neuropsychiatric disorders are the leading causes contributed to the functional dependence among oldest-old and elderly population. Neurodegenerative diseases in the oldest-old, stroke and depression in elderly people should be the priorities in ameliorating disability. Healthy lifestyle and avocational activities could improve the functional status of the oldest-old and elderly population.

  2. The relative contribution of physical and cognitive fall risk factors in people with Parkinson's disease: a large prospective cohort study.

    Paul, Serene S; Sherrington, Catherine; Canning, Colleen G; Fung, Victor S C; Close, Jacqueline C T; Lord, Stephen R

    2014-01-01

    In order to develop multifaceted fall prevention strategies for people with Parkinson's disease (PD), greater understanding of the impact of physical and cognitive performance on falls is required. We aimed to identify the relative contribution of a comprehensive range of physical and cognitive risk factors to prospectively-measured falls in a large sample of people with PD and develop an explanatory multivariate fall risk model in this group. METHODS MEASURES: of PD signs and symptoms, freezing of gait, balance, mobility, proprioception, leg muscle strength, and cognition were collected on 205 community-dwelling people with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months using falls diaries. A total of 120 participants (59%) fell during follow-up. Freezing of gait (P falls in univariate analyses. Freezing of gait (risk ratio [RR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00-1.05, P = .02), impaired anticipatory (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, P = .03) and reactive (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.01-1.58, P = .04) balance, and impaired orientation (RR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.01-1.62, P = .04) maintained significant associations with falls in multivariate analysis. The study findings elucidate important physical and cognitive determinants of falls in people with PD and may assist in developing efficacious fall prevention strategies for this high-risk group.

  3. [Systemic candidiasis in medical intensive care unit: analysis of risk factors and the contribution of colonization index].

    Massou, S; Ahid, S; Azendour, H; Bensghir, M; Mounir, K; Iken, M; Lmimouni, B E; Balkhi, H; Drissi Kamili, N; Haimeur, C

    2013-06-01

    Description of the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the patients introducing risk factors of invasive candidiasis. Analysis of risk factors for candidiasis invasive and evaluation of the contribution of colonization index (CI) in the diagnosis of the systematic candidiasis in medical intensive care. Prospective observational study (October 2007 to October 2009). The selected patients present risk factors of system IC candidiasis with an infectious syndrome or clinical signs suggestive of Candida infection and hospitalized more than 48 hours in medical intensive care unit. Pittet's colonization index was calculated at admission and then once a week added to a blood culture. Patients were classified according to level of evidence of Candida infection and the degree of colonization (CIcandidiasis. In multivariate analysis, the corticosteroid therapy was associated with a high colonisation (IC ≥ 0.5) and neutropenia with a high risk of systemic candidiasis. The positive predictive value of CI was 26%. The negative predictive value was 98%, the sensitivity and specificity was 93% and 48% respectively. CI has the advantage to provide a quantified data of the patient's situation in relation to the colonization. But, it isn't helpful with patients having an invasive candidiasis in medical intensive care unit. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. No Major Host Genetic Risk Factor Contributed to A(H1N12009 Influenza Severity.

    Koldo Garcia-Etxebarria

    Full Text Available While most patients affected by the influenza A(H1N1 pandemic experienced mild symptoms, a small fraction required hospitalization, often without concomitant factors that could explain such a severe course. We hypothesize that host genetic factors could contribute to aggravate the disease. To test this hypothesis, we compared the allele frequencies of 547,296 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs between 49 severe and 107 mild confirmed influenza A cases, as well as against a general population sample of 549 individuals. When comparing severe vs. mild influenza A cases, only one SNP was close to the conventional p = 5×10-8. This SNP, rs28454025, sits in an intron of the GSK233 gene, which is involved in a neural development, but seems not to have any connections with immunological or inflammatory functions. Indirectly, a previous association reported with CD55 was replicated. Although sample sizes are low, we show that the statistical power in our design was sufficient to detect highly-penetrant, quasi-Mendelian genetic factors. Hence, and assuming that rs28454025 is likely to be a false positive, no major genetic factor was detected that could explain poor influenza A course.

  5. Environmental risk assessment: its contribution to criteria development for HLW disposal

    Smith, G.M.; Little, R.H.; Watkins, B.M.

    1999-01-01

    Principles for radioactive waste management have been provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Safety Series No.111-F, which was published in 1995. This has been a major step forward in the process of achieving acceptance for proposals for disposal of radioactive waste, for example, for High Level Waste disposal in deep repositories. However, these principles have still to be interpreted and developed into practical radiation protection criteria. Without prejudicing final judgements on the acceptability of waste proposals, an important aspect is that practical demonstration of compliance (or the opposite) with these criteria must be possible. One of the IAEA principles requires that radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way as to provide an acceptable level of protection of the environment. There has been and continues to be considerable debate as to how to demonstrate compliance with such a principle. This paper briefly reviews the current status and considers how experience in other areas of environmental protection could contribute to criteria development for HLW disposal

  6. Assessment of occupational exposure to asbestos fibers: Contribution of analytical transmission electron microscopy analysis and comparison with phase-contrast microscopy.

    Eypert-Blaison, Céline; Romero-Hariot, Anita; Clerc, Frédéric; Vincent, Raymond

    2018-03-01

    From November 2009 to October 2010, the French general directorate for labor organized a large field-study using analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM) to characterize occupational exposure to asbestos fibers during work on asbestos containing materials (ACM). The primary objective of this study was to establish a method and to validate the feasibility of using ATEM for the analysis of airborne asbestos of individual filters sampled in various occupational environments. For each sampling event, ATEM data were compared to those obtained by phase-contrast optical microscopy (PCOM), the WHO-recommended reference technique. A total of 265 results were obtained from 29 construction sites where workers were in contact with ACM. Data were sorted depending on the combination of the ACM type and the removal technique. For each "ACM-removal technique" combination, ATEM data were used to compute statistical indicators on short, fine and WHO asbestos fibers. Moreover, exposure was assessed taking into account the use of respiratory protective devices (RPD). As in previous studies, no simple relationship was found between results by PCOM and ATEM counting methods. Some ACM, such as asbestos-containing plasters, generated very high dust levels, and some techniques generated considerable levels of dust whatever the ACM treated. On the basis of these observations, recommendations were made to measure and control the occupational exposure limit. General prevention measures to be taken during work with ACM are also suggested. Finally, it is necessary to continue acquiring knowledge, in particular regarding RPD and the dust levels measured by ATEM for the activities not evaluated during this study.

  7. Resilience in high-risk adolescents of mothers with recurrent depressive disorder: The contribution of fathers.

    Mahedy, Liam; Harold, Gordon T; Maughan, Barbara; Gardner, Frances; Araya, Ricardo; Bevan Jones, Rhys; Hammerton, Gemma; Sellers, Ruth; Thapar, Anita; Collishaw, Stephan

    2018-06-01

    This study examines the role of paternal emotional support as a resilience promoter in offspring of mothers with depression by considering the role of fathers' mental health and the quality of the couple relationship. Two hundred and sixty-five mothers with recurrent unipolar depression, partners and adolescents from Wales were assessed. Paternal emotional support, couple relationship quality, and paternal depression were assessed at baseline; adolescent mental health symptoms were assessed using the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment at follow-up. Results showed evidence of an indirect pathway whereby couple relationship quality predicted paternal emotional support (β = -.21, 95% CI [-.34, -.08]; p = .002) which in turn predicted adolescent depression (β = -.18, 95% CI [-.33, -.04]; p = .02), but not disruptive behaviours (β = -.08, 95% CI [-.22, .07]; p = .30), after controlling for relevant confounders. The findings highlight that fathers and the broader family system play an important role in enhancing resilience to depression symptoms in at-risk adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. The contribution of sting-jet windstorms to extreme wind risk in the North Atlantic

    Hart, Neil C.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Clark, Peter A.

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms are a major winter weather risk for many countries in Europe. These storms are predominantly associated with explosively-developing extratropical cyclones that track across the region. A substantial body of literature exists on the synoptic-scale dynamics, predictability and climatology of such storms. More recently, interest in the mesoscale variability of the most damaging winds has led to a focus on the role of sting jets in enhancing windstorm severity. We present a present-era climatology of North Atlantic cyclones that had potential to produce sting jets. Considering only explosively-developing cyclones, those with sting-jet potential are more likely to have higher relative vorticity and associated low-level wind maxima. Furthermore, the strongest winds for sting-jet cyclones are more often in the cool sector, behind the cold front, when compared with other explosively-developing cyclones which commonly have strong warm-sector winds too. The tracks of sting-jet cyclones, and explosively-developing cyclones in general, show little offset from the climatological storm track. While rare over Europe, sting-jet cyclones are relatively frequent within the main storm track with up to one third of extratropical cyclones exhibiting sting-jet potential. Thus, the rarity and, until recently, lack of description of sting-jet windstorms is more due to the climatological storm track location away from highly-populated land masses, than due to an actual rarity of such storms in nature.

  9. Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

    EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

  10. Contribution of enterprise risk management and internal audit function towards quality of financial reporting in universities in a developing country

    Newman Wadesango

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Quality of financial reporting is limited to issues of compliance to statutory provisions under which state enterprises in Zimbabwe operate, usefulness of the reports produced and their impact on the national fiscus. It is thus measured by way of compliance to these expectations and is indicated by way of a disclosure index signifying the presence of each of the expected aspects. This study therefore sought to establish the contribution of enterprise risk management and internal audit function towards the quality of financial reporting in universities in Zimbabwe. The study adopted a desktop analysis where relevant literature was reviewed. Quality of internal audit function was found to influence quality of financial reporting in that the strength, or quality, of the IAF will contribute to a distinctly different control environment depending on the strength of the good corporate governance in the university. Findings of this desktop research have undoubtedly revealed the gaps in the governance processes in state universities and it is envisaged that a careful analysis of these lacunas will provide a guide in the development of strategies and policy that strengthen state enterprise governance processes. It is hoped that this will help the parent ministry in charge of state enterprises, and, the relevant management of specific state enterprises to determine the magnitude of resources and efforts for implementation of efficient and effective enterprise risk management, internal audit function and corporate governance systems

  11. S187. SEARCHING FOR BRAIN CO-EXPRESSION MODULES THAT CONTRIBUTE DISPROPORTIONATELY TO THE COMMON POLYGENIC RISK FOR SCHIZOPHRENIA

    Costas, Javier; Paramo, Mario; Arrojo, Manuel

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background Genomic research has revealed that schizophrenia is a highly polygenic disease. Recent estimates indicate that at least 71% of genomic segments of 1 Mb include one or more risk loci for schizophrenia (Loh et al., Nature Genet 2015). This extremely high polygenicity represents a challenge to decipher the biological basis of schizophrenia, as it is expected that any set of SNPs with enough size will be associated with the disorder. Among the different gene sets available for study (such as those from Gene Ontology, KEGG pathway, Reactome pathways or protein protein interaction datasets), those based on brain co-expression networks represent putative functional relationships in the relevant tissue. The aim of this work was to identify brain co-expression networks that contribute disproportionately to the common polygenic risk for schizophrenia to get more insight on schizophrenia etiopathology. Methods We analyzed a case -control dataset consisting of 582 schizophrenia patients from Galicia, NW Spain, and 591 ancestrally matched controls, genotyped with the Illumina PsychArray. Using as discovery sample the summary results from the largest GWAS of schizophrenia to date (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, SCZ2), we generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) in our sample based on SNPs located at genes belonging to brain co-expression modules determined by the CommonMind Consortium (Fromer et al., Nature Neurosci 2016). PRS were generated using the clumping procedure of PLINK, considering several different thresholds to select SNPs from the discovery sample. In order to test if any specific module increased risk to schizophrenia more than expected by their size, we generated up to 10,000 random permutations of the same number of SNPs, matched by frequency, distance to nearest gene, number of SNPs in LD and gene density, using SNPsnap. Results As expected, most modules with enough number of independent SNPs belonging to them showed a significant increase in

  12. Risk perception of tsunami in the community of Arauco, Chile - a contribution of risk perception to disaster risk management at local level

    Kubisch, M. Sc. Susanne; Edilia Jaque Castillo, Dra.; Braun, JProf. Andreas Ch., ,, Dr.

    2017-04-01

    The research was carried out in the city center of the coastal community of Arauco, Central Chile. The community of Arauco was one of the most affected communities of the tsunami in Chile, the 27th of February 2010. For the data evaluation, the affected inhabitants of the community have been surveyed via standardized questionnaires. Furthermore experts of different fields, amongst others, Disaster Risk Management (DRM), risk education, urban and regional planning, as well as geology have been consulted in form of expert interviews. The results revealed a high risk perception part of the affected community and a weakness of DRM especially at local level, which opens a gap between the evaluation and treatment of risk by experts and risk perception of the affected community. The risk perception of the affected community, here, is predominantly determined by ecological vulnerability, expressed in direct and indirect experience of a tsunami and by institutional vulnerability, expressed among others by a weakness of DRM at local level and a mistrust in responsible institutions for DRM. Due to the institutional vulnerability and the mistrust in responsible institutions we recommend a Community Based Approach (CBA) to strengthen DRM at local level and to take advantage of the high risk perception and knowledge of the affected community. Involving the community in DRM, we assume to close the gap between risk evaluation of experts and risk perception of the inhabitants and to come up with the unique necessities and conditions at local level. Especially in centralized countries, DRM is less effective, because at the one hand, decisions are made distant from the affected communities, so that measures often do not come up with the unique conditions and necessities at local level, and on the other hand measures often do not find acceptance by the affected community. Furthermore centralized DRM is often not effective and quick in response in case of emergency. Another obstacle

  13. Do other-reports of counterproductive work behavior provide an incremental contribution over self-reports? A meta-analytic comparison.

    Berry, Christopher M; Carpenter, Nichelle C; Barratt, Clare L

    2012-05-01

    Much of the recent research on counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs) has used multi-item self-report measures of CWB. Because of concerns over self-report measurement, there have been recent calls to collect ratings of employees' CWB from their supervisors or coworkers (i.e., other-raters) as alternatives or supplements to self-ratings. However, little is still known about the degree to which other-ratings of CWB capture unique and valid incremental variance beyond self-report CWB. The present meta-analysis investigates a number of key issues regarding the incremental contribution of other-reports of CWB. First, self- and other-ratings of CWB were moderately to strongly correlated with each other. Second, with some notable exceptions, self- and other-report CWB exhibited very similar patterns and magnitudes of relationships with a set of common correlates. Third, self-raters reported engaging in more CWB than other-raters reported them engaging in, suggesting other-ratings capture a narrower subset of CWBs. Fourth, other-report CWB generally accounted for little incremental variance in the common correlates beyond self-report CWB. Although many have viewed self-reports of CWB with skepticism, the results of this meta-analysis support their use in most CWB research as a viable alternative to other-reports. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

    Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

  15. Contribution of X-Ray Repair Complementing Defective Repair in Chinese Hamster Cells 3 (XRCC3) Genotype to Leiomyoma Risk.

    Chang, Wen-Shin; Tsai, Chia-Wen; Wang, Ju-Yu; Ying, Tsung-Ho; Hsiao, Tsan-Seng; Chuang, Chin-Liang; Yueh, Te-Cheng; Liao, Cheng-Hsi; Hsu, Chin-Mu; Liu, Shih-Ping; Gong, Chi-Li; Tsai, Chang-Hai; Bau, Da-Tian

    2015-09-01

    The present study aimed at investigating whether X-ray repair cross complementing protein 3 (XRCC3) genotype may serve as a useful marker for detecting leiomyoma and predicting risk. A total of 640 women (166 patients with leiomyoma and 474 healthy controls) were examined for their XRCC3 rs1799794, rs45603942, rs861530, rs3212057, rs1799796, rs861539, rs28903081 genotype. The distributions of genotypic and allelic frequencies between the two groups were compared. The results showed that the CT and TT genotypes of XRCC3 rs861539 were associated with increased leiomyoma risk (odds ratio=2.19, 95% confidence interval=1.23-3.90; odds ratio=3.72, 95% confidence interval=1.23-11.26, respectively). On allelic frequency analysis, we found a significant difference in the distribution of the T allelic frequency of the XRCC3 rs861539 (p=5.88 × 10(-5)). None of the other six single nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with altered leiomyoma susceptibility. The T allele (CT and TT genotypes) of XRCC3 rs861539 contributes to increased risk of leiomyoma among Taiwanese women and may serve as a early detection and predictive marker. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  16. [How the information system can contribute to the implementation of a risk management program in a hospital?].

    Staccini, P; Quaranta, J F; Staccini-Myx, A; Veyres, P; Jambou, P

    2003-09-01

    Nowadays, information system is recognised as one of the key points of the management strategy. An information system is regarded conceptualised as a mean to link 3 aspects of a firm (structure, organisation rules and staff). Its design and implementation have to meet the objectives of medical and economical evaluation, especially risk management objectives. In order to identify, analyse, reduce and prevent the occurrence of adverse events, and also to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the production of care services, the design of information systems should be based on a process analysis in order to describe and classify all the working practices within the hospital. According to various methodologies (usually top-down analysis), each process can be divided into activities. Each activity (especially each care activity) can be described according to its potential risks and expected results. For care professionals performing a task, the access to official or internal guidelines and the adverse events reporting forms has also to be defined. Putting together all the elements of such a process analysis will contribute to integrate, into daily practice, the management of risks, supported by the information system.

  17. Prospective approaches for risk analysis in modern radiotherapy: the Italian experience and the contribution of medical physicists

    Begnozzi, L.; Cantone, M.C.; Veronese, I.; Longobardi, B.

    2014-01-01

    In the last few years there has been significant development of radiation therapy (RT) equipment with advanced imaging and delivery techniques, as well as treatment planning systems. From this perspective, proactive approaches for risk assessment were identified as a powerful tool in modern radiation oncology. A multidisciplinary working group (WG) has been established in the framework of the Italian association for medical physics (AIFM) to promote the use of prospective approaches in the radiotherapy scientific community. This paper describes the main actions carried out by the WG in order to collect information about the engagement of Italian medical physicists in the risk management process, in reporting possible incidents in RT and in the procedures of collecting and analysing near misses. In particular, the main scope of the study was to evaluate the actual level of experience in use of proactive risk analysis tools in modern RT by medical physicists. Finally, the measures implemented by the WG in order to promote the use of such approaches, and consequently to contribute to enhancing safety and radiation protection culture in radiation oncology are described. (authors)

  18. Risk Identification and Assessment in PPP Infrastructure Projects using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Methodology

    Jie Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available To fulfil the increasing demands of the public,Public Private Partnership (PPP has beenincreasingly used to procure infrastructureprojects, such as motor ways, bridges, tunnelsand railways. However, the risks involved inPPP projects are unique and dynamic due tolarge amount of investment and longconcession period. This paper aims to developa risk identification framework from theperspectives of project life cycle, and anassessment framework for risks associatedwith PPP project using fuzzy analyticalhierarchy process (AHP. First the paperreviews the current literature to identifycommon risks in PPP infrastructure projectsand classification methods used. The risksidentified from the literature were classifiedusing project life cycle perspectives. Followingthat, the paper presents the advantages offuzzy AHP. Furthermore, the paper provides aframework for assessment of risks in PPPprojects followed by an illustrative examplewhere the data was obtained from surveyquestionnaires. The paper concludes that risksassociated in PPP infrastructure projects areunique and therefore it is beneficial to classifythem from project life cycle perspectives, andthe proposed fuzzy AHP method is suitable forthe assessment of these risks.

  19. Analytic trigonometry

    Bruce, William J; Maxwell, E A; Sneddon, I N

    1963-01-01

    Analytic Trigonometry details the fundamental concepts and underlying principle of analytic geometry. The title aims to address the shortcomings in the instruction of trigonometry by considering basic theories of learning and pedagogy. The text first covers the essential elements from elementary algebra, plane geometry, and analytic geometry. Next, the selection tackles the trigonometric functions of angles in general, basic identities, and solutions of equations. The text also deals with the trigonometric functions of real numbers. The fifth chapter details the inverse trigonometric functions

  20. Analytical Laboratory

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Analytical Labspecializes in Oil and Hydraulic Fluid Analysis, Identification of Unknown Materials, Engineering Investigations, Qualification Testing (to support...

  1. Comparison of the analytical and clinical performances of Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV, Hybrid Capture 2, and DNA Chip assays in gynecology patients.

    Park, Seungman; Kang, Youjin; Kim, Dong Geun; Kim, Eui-Chong; Park, Sung Sup; Seong, Moon-Woo

    2013-08-01

    The detection of high-risk (HR) HPV in cervical cancer screening is important for early diagnosis of cervical cancer or pre-cancerous lesions. We evaluated the analytical and clinical performances of 3 HR HPV assays in Gynecology patients. A total of 991 specimens were included in this study: 787 specimens for use with a Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and 204 specimens for a HPV DNA microarray (DNA Chip). All specimens were tested using an Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV assay (Real-time HR), PGMY PCR, and sequence analysis. Clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal cytology (severe than high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) were 81.8% for Real-time HR, 77.3% for HC2, and 66.7% for DNA Chip, and clinical sensitivities for severe abnormal histology (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+) were 91.7% for HC2, 87.5% for Real-time HR, and 73.3% for DNA Chip. As compared to results of the sequence analysis, HC2, Real-time HR, and DNA Chip showed concordance rates of 94.3% (115/122), 90.0% (117/130), and 61.5% (16/26), respectively. The HC2 assay and Real-time HR assay showed comparable results to each other in both clinical and analytical performances, while the DNA Chip assay showed poor clinical and analytical performances. The Real-time HR assay can be a good alternative option for HR HPV testing with advantages of allowing full automation and simultaneous genotyping of HR types 16 and 18. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

    Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

    2018-02-21

    The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been

  3. Ranking the contributions of commercial fish and shellfish varieties to mercury exposure in the United States: implications for risk communication.

    Groth, Edward

    2010-04-01

    Fish and shellfish have important nutritional benefits, and US per capita seafood consumption has increased substantially since 2002. Recent research has reinforced concerns about adverse effects of methylmercury exposure, suggesting that methylmercury doses associated with typical US rates of fish consumption may pose measurable risks, with no threshold. These converging trends create a need to improve risk communication about fish consumption and mercury. The analysis performed here identifies the relative importance of different fish and shellfish as sources of mercury in the US seafood supply and proposes improved consumer advice, so that the public can benefit from fish consumption while minimizing mercury exposure. I have quantified contributions to total mercury in the US seafood supply by 51 different varieties of fish and shellfish, then ranked and sorted the 51 varieties in terms of relative impact. Except for swordfish, most fish with the highest mercury levels are relatively minor contributors to total inputs. Tuna (canned light, canned albacore and fresh/frozen varieties) accounts for 37.4 percent of total mercury inputs, while two-thirds of the seafood supply and nine of the 11 most heavily consumed fish and shellfish are low or very low in mercury. Substantial improvement in risk communication about mercury in fish and seafood is needed; in particular, several population subsets need better guidance to base their seafood choices more explicitly on mercury content. I have sorted the 51 seafood varieties into six categories based on mercury levels, as a framework for improving risk communication in this regard. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Contribution of coagulation factor VII R353Q polymorphism to the risk of thrombotic disorders development (venous and arterial: A case-control study

    Hanan Azzam

    2017-07-01

    Conclusion: FVII R353Q polymorphism did not contribute to an increased risk of thrombosis (arterial and venous; also carrying the Q allele (of R353Q did not confer protection against acute thrombotic events.

  5. Estimating the risk for suicide following the suicide deaths of 3 Asian entertainment celebrities: a meta-analytic approach.

    Fu, King-Wa; Yip, Paul S F

    2009-06-01

    Evidence suggests that there is an increase in the suicide rate following incidents of celebrity suicide in different countries, but there are no data on the overall suicide risk across countries. The duration of increased suicide rates is usually assumed to be on a monthly basis, but the weekly increase remains uncertain. This study aims at estimating the risk for suicide after the suicide deaths of entertainment celebrities in Asia during the first 4 weeks after the celebrity suicides and on a weekly basis. An ecological, retrospective time-series analysis and a meta-analysis of the suicide deaths in 3 Asian regions: Hong Kong (from 2001 to 2003), Taiwan, and South Korea (both from 2003 to 2005). The combined risks for suicide were found to be 1.43 (95% CI = 1.23 to 1.66), 1.29 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.50), and 1.25 (95% CI = 1.08 to 1.45) in the first, second, and third week, respectively, after suicides of entertainment celebrities, while adjusting for secular trends, seasonality, economic situation, and temporal autocorrelation. The same-gender and same-method specific increases suggest that as people identify more with the celebrity, their risk for suicide rises. A medium-term rise in suicides up to 24 weeks after the incidents of celebrity suicide is also evident. This study is the first to estimate risk for suicides following celebrity suicides across 3 Asian regions. The results provide important information for public health policy makers in assessing the elevated risk associated with excessive media coverage of celebrity suicide and developing timely evidence-based interventions. Copyright 2009 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  6. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules

    Topuz, E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and

  7. Validation of an online risk calculator for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colon cancer surgery and preliminary exploration of artificial intelligence-based analytics.

    Sammour, T; Cohen, L; Karunatillake, A I; Lewis, M; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W; Thomas, M L

    2017-11-01

    Recently published data support the use of a web-based risk calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ) for the prediction of anastomotic leak after colectomy. The aim of this study was to externally validate this calculator on a larger dataset. Consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency colectomy for colon cancer at a single institution over a 9-year period were identified using the Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit database. Patients with a rectosigmoid cancer, an R2 resection, or a diverting ostomy were excluded. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was derived and compared with that of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program ® (ACS NSQIP) calculator and the colon leakage score (CLS) calculator for left colectomy. Commercially available artificial intelligence-based analytics software was used to further interrogate the prediction algorithm. A total of 626 patients were identified. Four hundred and fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, and 402 had complete data available for all the calculator variables (126 had a left colectomy). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 39.6% and emergency surgery in 14.7%. The anastomotic leak rate was 7.2%, with 31.0% requiring reoperation. The anastomoticleak.com calculator was significantly predictive of leak and performed better than the ACS NSQIP calculator (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.58) and the CLS calculator (AUROC 0.96 vs 0.80) for left colectomy. Artificial intelligence-predictive analysis supported these findings and identified an improved prediction model. The anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly predictive of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection. Wider investigation of artificial intelligence-based analytics for risk prediction is warranted.

  8. A Potential Epigenetic Marker Mediating Serum Folate and Vitamin B12 Levels Contributes to the Risk of Ischemic Stroke

    Loo Keat Wei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Stroke is a multifactorial disease that may be associated with aberrant DNA methylation profiles. We investigated epigenetic dysregulation for the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR gene among ischemic stroke patients. Cases and controls were recruited after obtaining signed written informed consents following a screening process against the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Serum vitamin profiles (folate, vitamin B12, and homocysteine were determined using immunoassays. Methylation profiles for CpGs A and B in the MTHFR gene were determined using a bisulfite-pyrosequencing method. Methylation of MTHFR significantly increased the susceptibility risk for ischemic stroke. In particular, CpG A outperformed CpG B in mediating serum folate and vitamin B12 levels to increase ischemic stroke susceptibility risks by 4.73-fold. However, both CpGs A and B were not associated with serum homocysteine levels or ischemic stroke severity. CpG A is a potential epigenetic marker in mediating serum folate and vitamin B12 to contribute to ischemic stroke.

  9. Assessing the underlying breast cancer risk of Chinese females contributed by dietary intake of residual DDT from agricultural soils.

    Tang, Mengling; Zhao, Meirong; Zhou, Shanshan; Chen, Kun; Zhang, Chunlong; Liu, Weiping

    2014-12-01

    The greatest concern over DDT exposure in China arose since the early 1990s for the rising breast cancer incidence, and the cause still remains to be elucidated. An extensive survey of DDT background in agricultural soils, covered the entire region of China, was conducted. DDT at concentrations greater than 100 ng/g (the China's Farmland Environmental Quality Evaluation Standards for Edible Agricultural Products) was found to impact 42.3 million Chinese population. Considering the geographical differences with diverse DDT contributions and different diet products and habits, the average daily dietary intake was modeled and estimated to be 0.34 μg/kg p,p'-DDE (the main bioactive constituent in DDT). Population attributable fraction derived from a case-control study from 78 women with breast cancer and 72 controls was used to assess the DDT exposure risk to breast cancer. Based on the estimated population attributable fraction with a median value of 0.6% (IQR 0.23-2.11%), the excess annual breast cancer incidence rate attributable to p,p'-DDE exposure averaged 0.06×10(-5) with significant spatial variations varying from 0.00021×10(-5) to 11.05×10(-5) in Chinese females. Exposure to DDT is a contributor to breast cancer, but the overall limited relative risk and population attributable fraction imply confounding factors for breast cancer in Chinese females. Exposure risk in a regional scale helps understand the cause and prevention of breast cancer. Our mapping and modeling method could be used to assess other environmental carcinogens and related cancer diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Analytic geometry

    Burdette, A C

    1971-01-01

    Analytic Geometry covers several fundamental aspects of analytic geometry needed for advanced subjects, including calculus.This book is composed of 12 chapters that review the principles, concepts, and analytic proofs of geometric theorems, families of lines, the normal equation of the line, and related matters. Other chapters highlight the application of graphing, foci, directrices, eccentricity, and conic-related topics. The remaining chapters deal with the concept polar and rectangular coordinates, surfaces and curves, and planes.This book will prove useful to undergraduate trigonometric st

  11. Temporal change in headache and its contribution to the risk of developing first-onset temporomandibular disorder in the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study.

    Tchivileva, Inna E; Ohrbach, Richard; Fillingim, Roger B; Greenspan, Joel D; Maixner, William; Slade, Gary D

    2017-01-01

    While cross-sectional studies have demonstrated an association between headache and temporomandibular disorder (TMD), whether headache can predict the onset of TMD is unknown. The aims of this study were to evaluate the contribution of headache to the risk of developing TMD and describe patterns of change in headache types over time. An initially TMD-free cohort of 2410 persons with low frequency of headache completed quarterly questionnaires assessing TMD and headache symptoms over a median 3.0-year follow-up period. First-onset TMD was confirmed by clinical examination in 199 participants. Baseline reports of migraine (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.62) or mixed headache types (HR = 4.11, 95% CI: 1.47-11.46), or headache frequency (HR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.31-3.48) predicted increased risk of developing TMD. In addition, headache dynamics across the follow-up period before the TMD onset were evaluated in a nested case-control study where 248 incident TMD cases were matched to 191 TMD-free controls. Both headache prevalence and frequency increased across the observation period among those who developed TMD but not among controls. Patients with TMD were more likely to experience worsening in the headache type compared with that by controls, eg, prevalence of definite migraine among TMD cases increased 10-fold. Among all headache types experienced by patients with TMD before the TMD onset, migraine had the highest odds of progression relative to remission (odds ratio = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.6-4.8), whereas for controls this ratio was significant only for the tension-type headache (odds ratio = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.9). The important clinical implication of these findings is that adequate treatment of migraine may reduce the risk for developing TMD.

  12. Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

    Baker, Stuart G

    2018-02-01

    When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

  13. Do impression management and self-deception distort self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors in offender samples? A meta-analytic review.

    Hildebrand, Martin; Wibbelink, Carlijn J M; Verschuere, Bruno

    Self-report measures provide an important source of information in correctional/forensic settings, yet at the same time the validity of that information is often questioned because self-reports are thought to be highly vulnerable to self-presentation biases. Primary studies in offender samples have provided mixed results with regard to the impact of socially desirable responding on self-reports. The main aim of the current study was therefore to investigate-via a meta-analytic review of published studies-the association between the two dimensions of socially desirable responding, impression management and self-deceptive enhancement, and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors using the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding (BIDR) in offender samples. These self-report measures were significantly and negatively related with self-deception (r = -0.120, p impression management (r = -0.158, p impression management effect with the trim and fill method indicating that the relation is probably even smaller (r = -0.07). The magnitude of the effect sizes was small. Moderation analyses suggested that type of dynamic risk factor (e.g., antisocial cognition versus antisocial personality), incentives, and publication year affected the relationship between impression management and self-report measures with content of dynamic risk factors, whereas sample size, setting (e.g., incarcerated, community), and publication year influenced the relation between self-deception and these self-report measures. The results indicate that the use of self-report measures to assess dynamic risk factors in correctional/forensic settings is not inevitably compromised by socially desirable responding, yet caution is warranted for some risk factors (antisocial personality traits), particularly when incentives are at play. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The nature and structure of psychological distress in people at high risk for melanoma: a factor analytic study.

    Kasparian, Nadine A; Sansom-Daly, Ursula; McDonald, Roderick P; Meiser, Bettina; Butow, Phyllis N; Mann, Graham J

    2012-08-01

    This study examined the psychometric properties of two commonly used measures of psychological distress, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Impact of Events Scale (IES) in a sample of individuals at high risk of developing melanoma due to strong family history. One hundred thirty-two individuals with a known family-specific CDKN2A mutation (74% response rate) completed a mailed, self-administered questionnaire including the HADS and the IES. Initial correlational analyses were followed by both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, according to a predetermined procedure for order of analyses. Exploratory factor analyses found that neither a two-, three- or four-factor solution satisfactorily accounted for all IES items in the present sample. By contrast, a unidimensional account of the data emerged to best account for all IES items, leaving no items unaccounted for. In contrast, the traditional two-factor (anxiety and depression) structure of the HADS appeared to fit the data well. The traditional, two-factor (intrusion and avoidance) structure of the IES was not borne out within this familial melanoma cohort. Assessment of a single dimension of emotional distress in response to melanoma risk may facilitate more meaningful explorations of psychological adjustment in this context. These findings also raise questions about whether a post-traumatic stress framework is indeed the most appropriate framework to capture the unique nature of melanoma- or cancer-related distress. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analytic review

    Bentley, Kate H.; Franklin, Joseph C.; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Fox, Kathryn R.; Nock, Matthew K.

    2016-01-01

    Suicidal thoughts and behaviors are highly prevalent public health problems with devastating consequences. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of risk factors for suicide to identify effective intervention targets. The aim of this meta-analysis was to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of anxiety and its disorders as risk factors for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths. We conducted a literature search through December 2014; of the 65 articles meeting our inclusion criteria, we extracted 180 cases in which an anxiety-specific variable was used to longitudinally predict a suicide-related outcome. Results indicated that anxiety is a statistically significant, yet weak, predictor of suicide ideation (OR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.88) and attempts (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.83), but not deaths (OR=1.01, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.18). The strongest associations were observed for PTSD. Estimates were reduced after accounting for publication bias, and diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity but poor sensitivity. Overall, the extant literature suggests that anxiety and its disorders, at least when these constructs are measured in isolation and as trait-like constructs, are relatively weak predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors over long follow-up periods. Implications for future research priorities are discussed. PMID:26688478

  16. Analytical chemistry

    Chae, Myeong Hu; Lee, Hu Jun; Kim, Ha Seok

    1989-02-15

    This book give explanations on analytical chemistry with ten chapters, which deal with development of analytical chemistry, the theory of error with definition and classification, sample and treatment gravimetry on general process of gravimetry in aqueous solution and non-aqueous solution, precipitation titration about precipitation reaction and types, complexometry with summary and complex compound, oxidation-reduction equilibrium on electrode potential and potentiometric titration, solvent extraction and chromatograph and experiment with basic operation for chemical experiment.

  17. Analytical chemistry

    Chae, Myeong Hu; Lee, Hu Jun; Kim, Ha Seok

    1989-02-01

    This book give explanations on analytical chemistry with ten chapters, which deal with development of analytical chemistry, the theory of error with definition and classification, sample and treatment gravimetry on general process of gravimetry in aqueous solution and non-aqueous solution, precipitation titration about precipitation reaction and types, complexometry with summary and complex compound, oxidation-reduction equilibrium on electrode potential and potentiometric titration, solvent extraction and chromatograph and experiment with basic operation for chemical experiment.

  18. History of analytic geometry

    Boyer, Carl B

    2012-01-01

    Designed as an integrated survey of the development of analytic geometry, this study presents the concepts and contributions from before the Alexandrian Age through the eras of the great French mathematicians Fermat and Descartes, and on through Newton and Euler to the "Golden Age," from 1789 to 1850.

  19. The Effects of Risk-Glorifying Media Exposure on Risk-Positive Cognitions, Emotions, and Behaviors: A Meta-Analytic Review

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Kastenmuller, Andreas; Vogrincic, Claudia; Sauer, Anne

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a surge in the quantity of media content that glorifies risk-taking behavior, such as risky driving, extreme sports, or binge drinking. The authors conducted a meta-analysis involving more than 80,000 participants and 105 independent effect sizes to examine whether exposure to such media depictions increased their…

  20. Genetic variants in long non-coding RNA MIAT contribute to risk of paranoid schizophrenia in a Chinese Han population.

    Rao, Shu-Quan; Hu, Hui-Ling; Ye, Ning; Shen, Yan; Xu, Qi

    2015-08-01

    The heritability of schizophrenia has been reported to be as high as ~80%, but the contribution of genetic variants identified to this heritability remains to be estimated. Long non-coding RNAs (LncRNAs) are involved in multiple processes critical to normal cellular function and dysfunction of lncRNA MIAT may contribute to the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. However, the genetic evidence of lncRNAs involved in schizophrenia has not been documented. Here, we conducted a two-stage association analysis on 8 tag SNPs that cover the whole MIAT locus in two independent Han Chinese schizophrenia case-control cohorts (discovery sample from Shanxi Province: 1093 patients with paranoid schizophrenia and 1180 control subjects; replication cohort from Jilin Province: 1255 cases and 1209 healthy controls). In discovery stage, significant genetic association with paranoid schizophrenia was observed for rs1894720 (χ(2)=74.20, P=7.1E-18), of which minor allele (T) had an OR of 1.70 (95% CI=1.50-1.91). This association was confirmed in the replication cohort (χ(2)=22.66, P=1.9E-06, OR=1.32, 95%CI 1.18-1.49). Besides, a weak genotypic association was detected for rs4274 (χ(2)=4.96, df=2, P=0.03); the AA carriers showed increased disease risk (OR=1.30, 95%CI=1.03-1.64). No significant association was found between any haplotype and paranoid schizophrenia. The present studies showed that lncRNA MIAT was a novel susceptibility gene for paranoid schizophrenia in the Chinese Han population. Considering that most lncRNAs locate in non-coding regions, our result may explain why most susceptibility loci for schizophrenia identified by genome wide association studies were out of coding regions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Application of the analytical hierarchy process to establish health care waste management systems that minimise infection risks in developing countries

    Brent, AC

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available (see Fig. 2), and structured into the appropriate levels (see Table 2). These hier- archy trees are shown in Figs. 3–8 of Appendix A. 4. Results of the workshops 4.1. Definitions of the hierarchical trees The definitions of each hierarchical tree....349 NEC 0.045 EL 0.200 NEL 0.028 DP 0.292 NP 0.038 Alternatives Risk factors EC + EL + DP 1.0 nEC + EL + DP 1.6 EC + nEL + DP 1.3 nEC + nEL + DP 2.3 EC + EL + nP 1.4 nEC + EL + nP 3.0 A.C. Brent et al. / European Journal of Operational Research...

  2. Sexual risk reduction for HIV-infected persons: a meta-analytic review of "positive prevention" randomized clinical trials.

    Yin, Lu; Wang, Na; Vermund, Sten H; Shepherd, Bryan E; Ruan, Yuhua; Shao, Yiming; Qian, Han-Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Prevention intervention trials have been conducted to reduce risk of sexual transmission among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), but the findings were inconsistent. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate overall efficacy of prevention interventions on unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse (UVAI) among PLWHA from randomized clinical trials (RCTs). RCTs of prevention interventions among PLWHA published as of February 2012 were identified by systematically searching thirteen electronic databases. The primary outcome was UVAI. The difference of standardized mean difference (SMD) of UVAI between study arms, defined as effect size (ES), was calculated for each study and then pooled across studies using standard meta-analysis with a random effects model. Lower likelihood of UVAI was observed in the intervention arms compared with the control arms either with any sexual partners (mean ES: -0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.32, -0.11) or with HIV-negative or unknown-status sexual partners (mean ES and 95% CI: -0.13 [-0.22, -0.04]). Short-term efficacy of interventions with ≤ 10 months of follow up was significant in reducing UVAI (1-5 months: -0.27 [-0.45, -0.10]; 6-10 months: -0.18 [-0.30, -0.07]), while long-term efficacy of interventions was weaker and might have been due to chance (11-15 months: -0.13 [-0.34, 0.08]; >15 months: -0.05 [-0.43, 0.32]). Our meta-analyses confirmed the short-term impact of prevention interventions on reducing self-reported UVAI among PLWHA irrespective of the type of sexual partner, but did not support a definite conclusion on long-term effect. It is suggested that booster intervention sessions are needed to maintain a sustainable reduction of unprotected sex among PLWHA in future risk reduction programs.

  3. Potential contribution of the neurodegenerative disorders risk loci to cognitive performance in an elderly male gout population.

    Han, Lin; Jia, Zhaotong; Cao, Chunwei; Liu, Zhen; Liu, Fuqiang; Wang, Lin; Ren, Wei; Sun, Mingxia; Wang, Baoping; Li, Changgui; Chen, Li

    2017-09-01

    Cognitive impairment has been described in elderly subjects with high normal concentrations of serum uric acid. However, it remains unclear if gout confers an increased poorer cognition than those in individuals with asymptomatic hyperuricemia. The present study aimed at evaluating cognitive function in patients suffering from gout in an elderly male population, and further investigating the genetic contributions to the risk of cognitive function.This study examined the cognitive function as assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) in 205 male gout patients and 204 controls. The genetic basis of these cognitive measures was evaluated by genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in 102 male gout patients. Furthermore, 7 loci associated with cognition in GWAS were studied for correlation with gout in 1179 male gout patients and 1848 healthy male controls.Compared with controls, gout patients had significantly lower MoCA scores [22.78 ± 3.01 vs 23.42 ± 2.95, P = .023, adjusted by age, body mass index (BMI), education, and emotional disorder]. GWAS revealed 7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associations with MoCA test at a level of conventional genome-wide significance (P gout in further analysis (all P > .05).Elderly male subjects with gout exhibit accelerated decline in cognition performance. Several neurodegenerative disorders risk loci were identified for genetic contributors to cognitive performance in our Chinese elderly male gout population. Larger prospective studies of the cognitive performance and genetic analysis in gout subjects are recommended.

  4. Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study.

    Han, T S; Hart, C L; Haig, C; Logue, J; Upton, M N; Watt, G C M; Lean, M E J

    2015-11-02

    Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. Cross-sectional general population survey. Scotland. 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45-64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30-59 years surveyed in 1996. Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father-son (0.30) and mother-daughter (0.33) were greater than father-daughter (0.23) or mother-son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (pparental adiposity nor smoking history determined adjusted offspring individual cardiometabolic risk factors, diabetes or stroke. Maternal, but not paternal, smoking had significant effects on WC in sons (OR=1.50; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.01) and daughters (OR=1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.84) and metabolic syndrome OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.40) in sons. There are modest genetic/epigenetic influences on the environmental factors behind adverse adiposity. Maternal smoking appears a specific hazard on obesity and metabolic

  5. The cardiovascular risk of young women with polycystic ovary syndrome: an observational, analytical, prospective case-control study.

    Orio, Francesco; Palomba, Stefano; Spinelli, Letizia; Cascella, Teresa; Tauchmanovà, Libuse; Zullo, Fulvio; Lombardi, Gaetano; Colao, Annamaria

    2004-08-01

    To evaluate the cardiovascular risk of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), we investigated lipid profile, metabolic pattern, and echocardiography in 30 young women with PCOS and 30 healthy age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched women. PCOS women had higher fasting glucose and insulin levels, homeostasis model assessment score of insulin sensitivity, total cholesterol (TC) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels, and TC/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and lower HDL-C levels than controls. Additionally, PCOS women had higher left atrium size (32.0 +/- 4.9 vs. 27.4 +/- 2.1 mm; P index (80.5 +/- 18.1 vs. 56.1 +/- 5.4 g/m(2); P 18 and 30 kg/m(2))], the differences between PCOS women and controls were maintained in overweight and obese women. In normal weight PCOS women, a significant increase in left ventricular mass index and a decrease in diastolic filling were observed, notwithstanding no change in TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, TC/HDL-C ratio, and TG compared with controls. In conclusion, our data show the detrimental effect of PCOS on the cardiovascular system even in young women asymptomatic for cardiac disease.

  6. Contribution of Earth Observation data to flood risk mapping in the framework of the NATO SFP 'TIGRU' Project

    Stancalie, Gheorghe; Alecu, Corina; Craciunescul, Vasile; Diamandi, Andrei; Oancea, Simona; Brakenridge, Robert G.

    2004-01-01

    An important contribution of Earth Observation (EO) derived information in the topic of managing flooding connected phenomena could, be envisaged at the level of mapping aspects. EO satellites can provide necessary information for flood hazard and vulnerability assessment and mapping, which are directly used in the decision-making process. The EO data-derived information of the land cover/land use is important because it makes possible periodical updating and comparisons, and thus contribute to characterize the human presence and to provide elements on the vulnerability aspects, as well as the evaluation of the impact of the flooding. In order to obtain high-level thematic products the data extracted from the EO images must be integrated with other non-space ancillary data (topographical, penological, meteorological data) and hydrologic/hydraulic models outputs. This approach may be used in different phases of establishing the sensitive areas such as: the management of the database-built up from the ensemble of the spatially geo-referenced information; the elaboration of the risk indices from morpho-hydro graphical, meteorological and hydrological data; the interfacing with the models in order to improve their compatibility with input data; recovery of results and the possibility to work out scenarios; presentation of results as synthesis maps easy to access and interpret, additionally adequate to be combined with other information layouts resulted from the GIS database. The paper presents the specific methods, developed in the framework of the NATO SfP 'TIGRU' project 'Monitoring of extreme flood events in Romania and Hungary using EO data' for deriving satellite-based applications and products for flood risk mapping. The study area is situated in the Crisul Alb - Crisul Negru - K6r6s transboundary basin, crossing the Romanian - Hungarian border. Using the optical and microwave data supplied by the new satellite sensors (U.S. DMSP/Quikscat, LANDSAT-7/TM, EOS

  7. Life cycle management of analytical methods.

    Parr, Maria Kristina; Schmidt, Alexander H

    2018-01-05

    In modern process management, the life cycle concept gains more and more importance. It focusses on the total costs of the process from invest to operation and finally retirement. Also for analytical procedures an increasing interest for this concept exists in the recent years. The life cycle of an analytical method consists of design, development, validation (including instrumental qualification, continuous method performance verification and method transfer) and finally retirement of the method. It appears, that also regulatory bodies have increased their awareness on life cycle management for analytical methods. Thus, the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH), as well as the United States Pharmacopeial Forum discuss the enrollment of new guidelines that include life cycle management of analytical methods. The US Pharmacopeia (USP) Validation and Verification expert panel already proposed a new General Chapter 〈1220〉 "The Analytical Procedure Lifecycle" for integration into USP. Furthermore, also in the non-regulated environment a growing interest on life cycle management is seen. Quality-by-design based method development results in increased method robustness. Thereby a decreased effort is needed for method performance verification, and post-approval changes as well as minimized risk of method related out-of-specification results. This strongly contributes to reduced costs of the method during its life cycle. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Analytical mechanics

    Lemos, Nivaldo A

    2018-01-01

    Analytical mechanics is the foundation of many areas of theoretical physics including quantum theory and statistical mechanics, and has wide-ranging applications in engineering and celestial mechanics. This introduction to the basic principles and methods of analytical mechanics covers Lagrangian and Hamiltonian dynamics, rigid bodies, small oscillations, canonical transformations and Hamilton–Jacobi theory. This fully up-to-date textbook includes detailed mathematical appendices and addresses a number of advanced topics, some of them of a geometric or topological character. These include Bertrand's theorem, proof that action is least, spontaneous symmetry breakdown, constrained Hamiltonian systems, non-integrability criteria, KAM theory, classical field theory, Lyapunov functions, geometric phases and Poisson manifolds. Providing worked examples, end-of-chapter problems, and discussion of ongoing research in the field, it is suitable for advanced undergraduate students and graduate students studying analyt...

  9. Analytical quadrics

    Spain, Barry; Ulam, S; Stark, M

    1960-01-01

    Analytical Quadrics focuses on the analytical geometry of three dimensions. The book first discusses the theory of the plane, sphere, cone, cylinder, straight line, and central quadrics in their standard forms. The idea of the plane at infinity is introduced through the homogenous Cartesian coordinates and applied to the nature of the intersection of three planes and to the circular sections of quadrics. The text also focuses on paraboloid, including polar properties, center of a section, axes of plane section, and generators of hyperbolic paraboloid. The book also touches on homogenous coordi

  10. Social network data analytics

    Aggarwal, Charu C

    2011-01-01

    Social network analysis applications have experienced tremendous advances within the last few years due in part to increasing trends towards users interacting with each other on the internet. Social networks are organized as graphs, and the data on social networks takes on the form of massive streams, which are mined for a variety of purposes. Social Network Data Analytics covers an important niche in the social network analytics field. This edited volume, contributed by prominent researchers in this field, presents a wide selection of topics on social network data mining such as Structural Pr

  11. Analytical solutions of linked fault tree probabilistic risk assessments using binary decision diagrams with emphasis on nuclear safety applications[Dissertation 17286

    Nusbaumer, O. P. M

    2007-07-01

    This study is concerned with the quantification of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using linked Fault Tree (FT) models. Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) complements traditional deterministic analysis; it is widely recognized as a comprehensive and structured approach to identify accident scenarios and to derive numerical estimates of the associated risk levels. PRA models as found in the nuclear industry have evolved rapidly. Increasingly, they have been broadly applied to support numerous applications on various operational and regulatory matters. Regulatory bodies in many countries require that a PRA be performed for licensing purposes. PRA has reached the point where it can considerably influence the design and operation of nuclear power plants. However, most of the tools available for quantifying large PRA models are unable to produce analytically correct results. The algorithms of such quantifiers are designed to neglect sequences when their likelihood decreases below a predefined cutoff limit. In addition, the rare event approximation (e.g. Moivre's equation) is typically implemented for the first order, ignoring the success paths and the possibility that two or more events can occur simultaneously. This is only justified in assessments where the probabilities of the basic events are low. When the events in question are failures, the first order rare event approximation is always conservative, resulting in wrong interpretation of risk importance measures. Advanced NPP PRA models typically include human errors, common cause failure groups, seismic and phenomenological basic events, where the failure probabilities may approach unity, leading to questionable results. It is accepted that current quantification tools have reached their limits, and that new quantification techniques should be investigated. A novel approach using the mathematical concept of Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) is proposed to overcome these

  12. Potential contribution of the neurodegenerative disorders risk loci to cognitive performance in an elderly male gout population

    Han, Lin; Jia, Zhaotong; Cao, Chunwei; Liu, Zhen; Liu, Fuqiang; Wang, Lin; Ren, Wei; Sun, Mingxia; Wang, Baoping; Li, Changgui; Chen, Li

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Cognitive impairment has been described in elderly subjects with high normal concentrations of serum uric acid. However, it remains unclear if gout confers an increased poorer cognition than those in individuals with asymptomatic hyperuricemia. The present study aimed at evaluating cognitive function in patients suffering from gout in an elderly male population, and further investigating the genetic contributions to the risk of cognitive function. This study examined the cognitive function as assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) in 205 male gout patients and 204 controls. The genetic basis of these cognitive measures was evaluated by genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in 102 male gout patients. Furthermore, 7 loci associated with cognition in GWAS were studied for correlation with gout in 1179 male gout patients and 1848 healthy male controls. Compared with controls, gout patients had significantly lower MoCA scores [22.78 ± 3.01 vs 23.42 ± 2.95, P = .023, adjusted by age, body mass index (BMI), education, and emotional disorder]. GWAS revealed 7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associations with MoCA test at a level of conventional genome-wide significance (P gene (Padjusted = 4.2 × 10−9, Padjusted = 4.7 × 10–9) at 14q22. The next best signal was in RELN gene (rs155333, Padjusted = 1.3 × 10–8) at 7q22, while the other variants at rs17458357 (Padjusted = 3.98 × 10–8), rs2572683 (Padjusted = 8.9 × 10–8), rs12555895 (Padjusted = 2.6 × 10–8), and rs3764030 (Padjusted = 9.4 × 10–8) were also statistically significant. The 7 SNPs were not associated with gout in further analysis (all P > .05). Elderly male subjects with gout exhibit accelerated decline in cognition performance. Several neurodegenerative disorders risk loci were identified for genetic contributors to cognitive performance in our

  13. Male circumcision and sexual risk behaviors may contribute to considerable ethnic disparities in HIV prevalence in Kenya: an ecological analysis.

    Chris Richard Kenyon

    Full Text Available HIV prevalence varies between 0.8 and 20.2% in Kenya's various ethnic groups. The reasons underlying these variations have not been evaluated before.We used data from seven national surveys spanning the period 1989 to 2008 to compare the prevalence of a range of risk factors in Kenya's ethnic groups. Spearman's and linear regression were used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable by ethnic group.The ethnic groups exhibited significant differences in a number of HIV related risk factors. Although the highest HIV prevalence group (the Luo had the highest rates of HIV testing (Men 2008 survey: 56.8%, 95% CI 51.0-62.5% and condom usage at last sex (Men 2008∶28.6%, 95% CI 19.6-37.6%, they had the lowest prevalence of circumcision (20.9%, 95% CI 15.9-26.0 the highest prevalence of sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (Men: 40.2%, 95% CI 33.2-47.1% and pre-marital sex (Men 2008∶73.9%, 95% CI 67.5-80.3% and the youngest mean age of debut for women (1989 SURVEY: 15.7 years old, 95% CI 15.2-16.2. At a provincial level there was an association between the prevalence of HIV and male concurrency (Spearman's rho = 0.79, P = 0.04. Ethnic groups with higher HIV prevalence were more likely to report condom use (Men 2008 survey: R2 = 0.62, P = 0.01 and having been for HIV testing (Men 2008 survey: R2 = 0.47, P = 0.04.In addition to differences in male circumcision prevalence, variation in sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence in Kenya's ethnic groups. To complement the prevention benefits of the medical male circumcision roll-out in several parts of Kenya, interventions to reduce risky sexual behavior should continue to be promoted.

  14. Schedule Analytics

    2016-04-30

    Warfare, Naval Sea Systems Command Acquisition Cycle Time : Defining the Problem David Tate, Institute for Defense Analyses Schedule Analytics Jennifer...research was comprised of the following high- level steps :  Identify and review primary data sources 1...research. However, detailed reviews of the OMB IT Dashboard data revealed that schedule data is highly aggregated. Program start date and program end date

  15. Croatian Analytical Terminology

    Kastelan-Macan; M.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Results of analytical research are necessary in all human activities. They are inevitable in making decisions in the environmental chemistry, agriculture, forestry, veterinary medicine, pharmaceutical industry, and biochemistry. Without analytical measurements the quality of materials and products cannot be assessed, so that analytical chemistry is an essential part of technical sciences and disciplines.The language of Croatian science, and analytical chemistry within it, was one of the goals of our predecessors. Due to the political situation, they did not succeed entirely, but for the scientists in independent Croatia this is a duty, because language is one of the most important features of the Croatian identity. The awareness of the need to introduce Croatian terminology was systematically developed in the second half of the 19th century, along with the founding of scientific societies and the wish of scientists to write their scientific works in Croatian, so that the results of their research may be applied in economy. Many authors of textbooks from the 19th and the first half of the 20th century contributed to Croatian analytical terminology (F. Rački, B. Šulek, P. Žulić, G. Pexidr, J. Domac, G. Janeček , F. Bubanović, V. Njegovan and others. M. DeŢelić published the first systematic chemical terminology in 1940, adjusted to the IUPAC recommendations. In the second half of 20th century textbooks in classic analytical chemistry were written by V. Marjanović-Krajovan, M. Gyiketta-Ogrizek, S. Žilić and others. I. Filipović wrote the General and Inorganic Chemistry textbook and the Laboratory Handbook (in collaboration with P. Sabioncello and contributed greatly to establishing the terminology in instrumental analytical methods.The source of Croatian nomenclature in modern analytical chemistry today are translated textbooks by Skoog, West and Holler, as well as by Günnzler i Gremlich, and original textbooks by S. Turina, Z.

  16. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment project risks were specified on the basis of interconnection of risk and project effectiveness. Risk management procedure at realization of the developer project was developed.

  17. Foundations of predictive analytics

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  18. Contribution o the assessment of the environmental risk associated with uranium releases in the Ritord drainage basin

    Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.

    2008-01-01

    This document reports the application to aquatic environments and more particularly to the case of a drainage basin of methods of assessment of the environmental risk presented in another report. The objective is to determine the environmental risk related to releases of uranium from ancient mining sites. The method is applied to available data to diagnose a possible chemical and/or radiological risk due to these releases. Should the occasion occurs, probabilistic approaches are used to refine the assessment of the possible risk identified by the screening. After a presentation of the context, the different screening steps are reported: methodology (exposure analysis, effect analysis, and risk characterization), deterministic characterization of the chronic radiological risk, deterministic characterization of the chronic chemical risk. The next part reports the probabilistic assessment of the chemical or radiological risk. In conclusion, the authors indicate actions to be performed to better analyse exposures, and desirable actions to better analyse effects

  19. Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

    Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D; Poloni, Estella S; van 't Wout, Angélique B; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; De Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; De Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E; Schölvinck, Elisabeth H.

    BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the

  20. Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

    Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R.; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D.; Poloni, Estella S.; van 't Wout, Angélique B.; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A.; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S.; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M.; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; de Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H.; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; de Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R.; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A.; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C.; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E.; Gras, A. Luuk; van Wout, Angelique B.; Arnedo-Valero, Mireia; Sierra, Mariana de Paz; Rodriguez, Ana Torrecilla; Garcia, Juan Gonzalez; Arribas, Jose R.; Aubert, V.; Barth, J.; Battegay, M.; Bernasconi, E.; Böni, J.; Bucher, H. C.; Burton-Jeangros, C.; Calmy, A.; Cavassini, M.; Egger, M.; Elzi, L.; Fehr, J.; Fellay, J.; Francioli, P.; Furrer, H.; Fux, C. A.; Gorgievski, M.; Günthard, H.; Haerry, D.; Hasse, B.; Hirsch, H. H.; Hirschel, B.; Hösli, I.; Kahlert, C.; Kaiser, L.; Keiser, O.; Kind, C.; Klimkait, T.; Kovari, H.; Ledergerber, B.; Martinetti, G.; Martinez de Tejada, B.; Metzner, K.; Müller, N.; Nadal, D.; Pantaleo, G.; Rauch, A.; Regenass, S.; Rickenbach, M.; Rudin, C.; Schmid, P.; Schultze, D.; Schöni-Affolter, F.; Schüpbach, J.; Speck, R.; Taffé, P.; Tarr, P.; Telenti, A.; Trkola, A.; Vernazza, P.; Weber, R.; Prins, Yerly S. J. M.; Kuijpers, T. W.; Scherpbier, H. J.; Boer, K.; van der Meer, J. T. M.; Wit, F. W. M. N.; Godfried, M. H.; van der Poll, T.; Nellen, F. J. B.; Lange, J. M. A.; Geerlings, S. E.; van Vugt, M.; Vrouenraets, S. M. E.; Pajkrt, D.; Bos, J. C.; van der Valk, M.; Schreij, G.; Lowe, S.; Oude Lashof, A.; Pronk, M. J. H.; Bravenboer, B.; van der Ende, M. E.; de Vries-Sluijs, T. E. M. S.; Schurink, C. A. M.; van der Feltz, M.; Nouwen, J. L.; Gelinck, L. B. S.; Verbon, A.; Rijnders, B. J. A.; van de Ven-de Ruiter, E. D.; Slobbe, L.; Haag, Den; Kauffmann, R. H.; Schippers, E. F.; Groeneveld, P. H. P.; Alleman, M. A.; Bouwhuis, J. W.; ten Kate, R. W.; Soetekouw, R.; Kroon, F. P.; van den Broek, P. J.; van Dissel, J. T.; Arend, S. M.; van Nieuwkoop, C.; de Boer, M. J. G.; Jolink, H.; den Hollander, J. G.; Pogany, K.; Bronsveld, W.; Kortmann, W.; van Twillert, G.; van Houte, D. P. F.; Polée, M. B.; van Vonderen, M. G. A.; ten Napel, C. H. H.; Kootstra, G. J.; Brinkman, K.; Blok, W. L.; Frissen, P. H. J.; Schouten, W. E. M.; van den Berk, G. E. L.; Juttmann, J. R.; van Kasteren, M. E. E.; Brouwer, A. E.; Mulder, J. W.; van Gorp, E. C. M.; Smit, P. M.; Weijer, S.; van Eeden, A.; Verhagen, D. W. M.; Sprenger, H. G.; Doedens, R.; Scholvinck, E. H.; van Assen, S.; Stek, C. J.; Hoepelman, I. M.; Mudrikova, T.; Schneider, M. M. E.; Jaspers, C. A. J. J.; Ellerbroek, P. M.; Peters, E. J. G.; Maarschalk-Ellerbroek, L. J.; Oosterheert, J. J.; Arends, J. E.; Wassenberg, M. W. M.; van der Hilst, J. C. H.; Richter, C.; van der Berg, J. P.; Gisolf, E. H.; Margolick, Joseph B.; Plankey, Michael; Crain, Barbara; Dobs, Adrian; Farzadegan, Homayoon; Gallant, Joel; Johnson-Hill, Lisette; Sacktor, Ned; Selnes, Ola; Shepard, James; Thio, Chloe; Phair, John P.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Badri, Sheila; Conover, Craig; O'Gorman, Maurice; Ostrow, David; Palella, Frank; Ragin, Ann; Detels, Roger; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Aronow, Aaron; Bolan, Robert; Breen, Elizabeth; Butch, Anthony; Fahey, John; Jamieson, Beth; Miller, Eric N.; Oishi, John; Vinters, Harry; Visscher, Barbara R.; Wiley, Dorothy; Witt, Mallory; Yang, Otto; Young, Stephen; Zhang, Zuo Feng; Rinaldo, Charles R.; Becker, James T.; Cranston, Ross D.; Martinson, Jeremy J.; Mellors, John W.; Silvestre, Anthony J.; Stall, Ronald D.; Muñoz, Alvaro; Abraham, Alison; Althoff, Keri; Cox, Christopher; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Gange, Stephen J.; Golub, Elizabeth; Schollenberger, Janet; Seaberg, Eric C.; Su, Sol; Huebner, Robin E.; Dominguez, Geraldina; Moroni, M.; Angarano, G.; Antinori, A.; Carosi, G.; Cauda, R.; Monforte, A. d'Arminio; Di Perri, G.; Galli, M.; Iardino, R.; Ippolito, G.; Lazzarin, A.; Perno, C. F.; Sagnelli, E.; Viale, P. L.; Von Schlosser, F.; d'Arminio Monforte, A.; Ammassari, A.; Andreoni, M.; Balotta, C.; Bonfanti, P.; Bonora, S.; Borderi, M.; Capobianchi, M. R.; Castagna, A.; Ceccherini-Silberstein, F.; Cozzi-Lepri, A.; de Luca, A.; Gargiulo, M.; Gervasoni, C.; Girardi, E.; Lichtner, M.; Lo Caputo, S.; Madeddu, G.; Maggiolo, F.; Marcotullio, S.; Monno, L.; Murri, R.; Mussini, C.; Puoti, M.; Torti, C.; Fanti, I.; Formenti, T.; Galli, Laura; Lorenzini, Patrizia; Montroni, M.; Giacometti, A.; Costantini, A.; Riva, A.; Tirelli, U.; Martellotta, F.; Ladisa, N.; Lazzari, G.; Verucchi, G.; Castelli, F.; Scalzini, A.; Minardi, C.; Bertelli, D.; Quirino, T.; Abeli, C.; Manconi, P. E.; Piano, P.; Vecchiet, J.; Falasca, K.; Carnevale, G.; Lorenzotti, S.; Sighinolfi, L.; Segala, D.; Leoncini, F.; Mazzotta, F.; Pozzi, M.; Cassola, G.; Viscoli, G.; Viscoli, A.; Piscopo, R.; Mazzarello, G.; Mastroianni, C.; Belvisi, V.; Caramma, I.; Chiodera, A.; Castelli, P.; Rizzardini, G.; Ridolfo, A. L.; Foschi, A.; Salpietro, S.; Galli, A.; Bigoloni, A.; Spagnuolo, V.; Merli, S.; Carenzi, L.; Moioli, M. C.; Cicconi, P.; Bisio, L.; Gori, A.; Lapadula, G.; Abrescia, N.; Chirianni, A.; de Marco, M.; Ferrari, C.; Borghi, R.; Baldelli, F.; Belfiori, B.; Parruti, G.; Ursini, T.; Magnani, G.; Ursitti, M. A.; Narciso, P.; Tozzi, V.; Vullo, V.; d'Avino, A.; Zaccarelli, M.; Gallo, L.; Acinapura, R.; Capozzi, M.; Libertone, R.; Trotta, M. P.; Tebano, G.; Cattelan, A. M.; Mura, M. S.; Caramello, P.; Orofino, G. C.; Sciandra, M.; Raise, N. N.; Ebo, F.; Pellizzer, G.; Manfrin, V.; Law, M.; Petoumenos, K.; McManus, H.; Wright, S.; Bendall, C.; Moore, R.; Edwards, S.

    2013-01-01

    Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV

  1. An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

    Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

    2018-09-01

    Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analytical chemistry

    Choi, Jae Seong

    1993-02-15

    This book is comprised of nineteen chapters, which describes introduction of analytical chemistry, experimental error and statistics, chemistry equilibrium and solubility, gravimetric analysis with mechanism of precipitation, range and calculation of the result, volume analysis on general principle, sedimentation method on types and titration curve, acid base balance, acid base titration curve, complex and firing reaction, introduction of chemical electro analysis, acid-base titration curve, electrode and potentiometry, electrolysis and conductometry, voltammetry and polarographic spectrophotometry, atomic spectrometry, solvent extraction, chromatograph and experiments.

  3. Analytical chemistry

    Choi, Jae Seong

    1993-02-01

    This book is comprised of nineteen chapters, which describes introduction of analytical chemistry, experimental error and statistics, chemistry equilibrium and solubility, gravimetric analysis with mechanism of precipitation, range and calculation of the result, volume analysis on general principle, sedimentation method on types and titration curve, acid base balance, acid base titration curve, complex and firing reaction, introduction of chemical electro analysis, acid-base titration curve, electrode and potentiometry, electrolysis and conductometry, voltammetry and polarographic spectrophotometry, atomic spectrometry, solvent extraction, chromatograph and experiments.

  4. Analytical chemistry

    Anon.

    1985-01-01

    The division for Analytical Chemistry continued to try and develope an accurate method for the separation of trace amounts from mixtures which, contain various other elements. Ion exchange chromatography is of special importance in this regard. New separation techniques were tried on certain trace amounts in South African standard rock materials and special ceramics. Methods were also tested for the separation of carrier-free radioisotopes from irradiated cyclotron discs

  5. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research.

    Maruthur, Nisa M; Joy, Susan; Dolan, James; Segal, Jodi B; Shihab, Hasan M; Singh, Sonal

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences.

  6. Influence of the Risk-Contributing Factors on the Financing of the Investment Project for Building of Intelligent Buildings

    Voytolovskiy Nikolay; Trebukhin Anatoliy; Shoshinov Vitaly

    2017-01-01

    This article provides the generic classification of risks of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings which differ by the detachment of the subjective perception of risk by the investor. Risk and uncertainty were justified as system characteristics of the investment projects for the construction of intelligent buildings. Characteristics of the development was given in the context of project management. Methodical schemes of the development of the investment projec...

  7. Using dynamic walking models to identify factors that contribute to increased risk of falling in older adults.

    Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

    2013-10-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  8. Using Dynamic Walking Models to Identify Factors that Contribute to Increased Risk of Falling in Older Adults

    Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  9. Effects of debt mutualization in a monetary union with endogenous risk premia : Can Eurobonds contribute to debt stabilization?

    van Aarle, B.; Engwerda, Jacob; Weeren, A.J.T.M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses debt stabilization in a monetary union that features endogenous risk premia. In particular, debt stabilization in two diametrically opposed regimes is compared. In the first regime, the “national fiscal discipline regime”, financial markets impose sovereign risk premia based on

  10. Unequal Exposure or Unequal Vulnerability? Contributions of Neighborhood Conditions and Cardiovascular Risk Factors to Socioeconomic Inequality in Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

    Hussein, Mustafa; Diez Roux, Ana V; Mujahid, Mahasin S; Hastert, Theresa A; Kershaw, Kiarri N; Bertoni, Alain G; Baylin, Ana

    2017-11-23

    Risk factors can drive socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) through differential exposure and differential vulnerability. We show how econometric decomposition directly enables simultaneous, policy-oriented assessment of these two mechanisms. We specifically estimated contributions via these mechanisms of neighborhood environment and proximal risk factors to socioeconomic inequality in CVD incidence. We followed 5,608 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2012) until the first CVD event (median follow-up 12.2 years). We used a summary measure of baseline socioeconomic position (SEP). Covariates included baseline demographics, neighborhood, psychosocial, behavioral, and biomedical risk factors. Using Poisson models, we decomposed the difference (inequality) in incidence rates between low- and high-SEP groups into contributions of 1) differences in covariate means (differential exposure), and 2) differences in CVD risk associated with covariates (differential vulnerability). Notwithstanding large uncertainty in neighborhood estimates, our analysis suggests that differential exposure to poorer neighborhood socioeconomic conditions, adverse social environment, diabetes, and hypertension accounts for most of inequality. Psychosocial and behavioral contributions were negligible. Further, neighborhood SEP, female gender, and White race were more strongly associated with CVD among low-SEP (vs. high-SEP) participants. These differentials in vulnerability also accounted for nontrivial portions of the inequality, and could have important implications for intervention. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Sympathovagal imbalance contributes to prehypertension status and cardiovascular risks attributed by insulin resistance, inflammation, dyslipidemia and oxidative stress in first degree relatives of type 2 diabetics.

    Gopal Krushna Pal

    Full Text Available Though cardiovascular (CV risks are reported in first-degree relatives (FDR of type 2 diabetics, the pathophysiological mechanisms contributing to these risks are not known. We investigated the association of sympathovagal imbalance (SVI with CV risks in these subjects.Body mass index (BMI, basal heart rate (BHR, blood pressure (BP, rate-pressure product (RPP, spectral indices of heart rate variability (HRV, autonomic function tests, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipid profile, inflammatory markers, oxidative stress (OS marker, rennin, thyroid profile and serum electrolytes were measured and analyzed in subjects of study group (FDR of type 2 diabetics, n = 72 and control group (subjects with no family history of diabetes, n = 104.BMI, BP, BHR, HOMA-IR, lipid profile, inflammatory and OS markers, renin, LF-HF (ratio of low-frequency to high-frequency power of HRV, a sensitive marker of SVI were significantly increased (p<0.0001 in study group compared to the control group. SVI in study group was due to concomitant sympathetic activation and vagal inhibition. There was significant correlation and independent contribution of markers of insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and OS to LF-HF ratio. Multiple-regression analysis demonstrated an independent contribution of LF-HF ratio to prehypertension status (standardized beta 0.415, p<0.001 and bivariate logistic-regression showed significant prediction (OR 2.40, CI 1.128-5.326, p = 0.002 of LF-HF ratio of HRV to increased RPP, the marker of CV risk, in study group.SVI in FDR of type 2 diabetics occurs due to sympathetic activation and vagal withdrawal. The SVI contributes to prehypertension status and CV risks caused by insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, inflammation and oxidative stress in FDR of type 2 diabetics.

  12. Dietary patterns are associated with incident stroke and contribute to excess risk of stroke in Black Americans

    Judd, Suzanne E; Gutiérrez, Orlando M.; Newby, PK; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L; Kissela, Brett M; Shikany, James M

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Black Americans and residents of the Southeastern United States, are at increased risk of stroke. Diet is one of many potential factors proposed that might explain these racial and regional disparities. Methods Between 2003–2007, the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study enrolled 30,239 black and white Americans aged 45 years or older. Dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis and foods from food frequency data. Incident strokes were adjudicated using medical records by a team of physicians. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine risk of stroke. Results Over 5.7 years, 490 incident strokes were observed. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, greater adherence to the Plant-based pattern was associated with lower stroke risk (HR=0.71; 95% CI=0.56–0.91; ptrend=0.005). This association was attenuated after addition of income, education, total energy intake, smoking, and sedentary behavior. Participants with a higher adherence to the Southern pattern experienced a 39% increased risk of stroke (HR=1.39; 95% CI=1.05, 1.84), with a significant (p = 0.009) trend across quartiles. Including Southern pattern in the model mediated the black-white risk of stroke by 63%. Conclusions These data suggest that adherence to a Southern style diet may increase the risk of stroke while adherence to a more plant-based diet may reduce stroke risk. Given the consistency of finding a dietary impact on stroke risk across studies, discussing nutrition patterns during risk screening may be an important step in reducing stroke. PMID:24159061

  13. Factors contributing to risk for cancer among HIV-infected individuals, and evidence that earlier combination antiretroviral therapy will alter this risk

    Borges, Alvaro Humberto Diniz; Dubrow, Robert; Silverberg, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To critically appraise recent published literature about factors associated with cancer risk likely to be influenced by combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-infected individuals, and the potential of earlier cART initiation to reduce this risk. RECENT FINDINGS: Fact...

  14. The contribution of reproductive factors and family history towards premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

    Razif, S Mohd; Sulaiman, S; Hanie, S Soraya; Aina, E Nor; Rohaizak, M; Fuad, I; Nurismah, M I; Sharifah, N A

    2011-08-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. This study aimed to determine the reproductive for premenopausal breast cancer risk in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A case-control study was conducted in 216 histopathologically confirmed cases of premenopausal breast cancer and 216 community-based controls that were matched by age within a 5-year period and ethnicity. The results of this study showed that premenopausal breast cancer risks were strongly related to parity, number of live births and family history of breast cancer. Premenopausal women with these known reproductive and family history risk factors should take extra measures to undergo appropriate screening method for early detection of breast cancer.

  15. Contribution of cardiac and extra-cardiac disease burden to risk of cardiovascular outcomes varies by ejection fraction in heart failure

    Wolsk, Emil; Claggett, Brian; Køber, Lars

    2018-01-01

    AIMS: Patients with heart failure (HF) often have multiple co-morbidities that contribute to the risk of adverse cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV outcomes. We assessed the relative contribution of cardiac and extra-cardiac disease burden and demographic factors to CV outcomes in HF patients...... Association class, systolic blood pressure, time since HF diagnosis, HF medication use), extra-cardiac (body mass index, creatinine, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoker), and demographic (age, gender) categories, and calculated subscores for each patient representing the burden......EF patients (PAR: 76% cardiac disease vs. 58% extra-cardiac disease, P vs. 49% extra-cardiac disease, P

  16. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): I Soil chemical characterization

    Pereira, R.; Antunes, S.C.; Marques, S.M.; Goncalves, F.

    2008-01-01

    Within the tier 1 of a site specific risk assessment, the pseudo-total concentrations (extracted with aqua regia) and the potential mobile fractions of metals were determined to perform a preliminary evaluation of risks posed by contaminated soils from an abandoned uranium mine (Mangualde, Central Portugal). Considering the mobile fractions of metals, extracted with artificial rain water, aluminium and uranium were the most concerning elements, since their concentrations were above soil quality criteria values (SQGVs) established for both elements. However, according to the evaluation based on potential mobile fractions of elements, rather than on pseudo-total metal concentrations the risks were limited to sites within the exploitation area, where contamination derives mainly from past in-situ leaching activities of pore ore as well as from the deposition of sludge from the effluent pond. The exclusion of other sites under evaluation, from the risk assessment process, requires additional data provided by soil screening ecotoxicological assays

  17. Analytical mechanics

    Helrich, Carl S

    2017-01-01

    This advanced undergraduate textbook begins with the Lagrangian formulation of Analytical Mechanics and then passes directly to the Hamiltonian formulation and the canonical equations, with constraints incorporated through Lagrange multipliers. Hamilton's Principle and the canonical equations remain the basis of the remainder of the text. Topics considered for applications include small oscillations, motion in electric and magnetic fields, and rigid body dynamics. The Hamilton-Jacobi approach is developed with special attention to the canonical transformation in order to provide a smooth and logical transition into the study of complex and chaotic systems. Finally the text has a careful treatment of relativistic mechanics and the requirement of Lorentz invariance. The text is enriched with an outline of the history of mechanics, which particularly outlines the importance of the work of Euler, Lagrange, Hamilton and Jacobi. Numerous exercises with solutions support the exceptionally clear and concise treatment...

  18. Vegetarianism and colorectal cancer risk in a low-selenium environment: effect modification by selenium status? A possible factor contributing to the null results in British vegetarians.

    Sobiecki, Jakub G

    2017-08-01

    Despite the consistent findings of lower total cancer incidence in vegetarians than in meat-eaters in the UK, the results of studies of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in British vegetarians have largely been null. This was in contrast to the hypothesis of a decreased risk of CRC in this population due to null intake of red and processed meats and increased intake of fibre. Although the data are inconsistent, it has been suggested that selenium (Se) status may influence CRC risk. A literature review was performed of studies on CRC risk in vegetarians, Se intakes and status in vegetarians, and changes of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the follow-up periods of studies on CRC risk in British vegetarians. Vegetarians in the UK and other low-Se areas were found to have low Se intakes and status compared to non-vegetarians. There was some evidence of a reverse J-shaped curve of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the last three decades. These presumed patterns were followed by the changes in CRC mortality or incidence in British vegetarians during this period. Available data on Se intake and status in British vegetarians, as well as the relationship between their secular changes in the UK and changes in CRC risk in this dietary group, are compatible with the hypothesis that low Se status may contribute to the largely null results of studies of CRC risk in vegetarians in the UK.

  19. Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

    Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D; Poloni, Estella S; van 't Wout, Angélique B; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. METHODS: In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the ...

  20. Survivin -31 G/C polymorphism might contribute to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk: a meta-analysis.

    Yao, Linhua; Hu, Yi; Deng, Zhongmin; Li, Jingjing

    2015-01-01

    Published data has shown inconsistent findings about the association of survivin -31 G/C polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). This meta-analysis quantitatively assesses the results from published studies to provide a more precise estimate of the association between survivin -31 G/C polymorphism as a possible predictor of the risk of CRC. We conducted a literature search in the PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases. Stata 12 software was used to calculate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) based on the available data from each article. Six studies including 1840 cases with CRC and 1804 controls were included in this study. Survivin -31 G/C polymorphism was associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.53-2.07; I(2) = 0%). In the race subgroup analysis, both Asians (OR = 1.72; 95% CI, 1.44-2.05; I(2) = 0%) and Caucasians (OR = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.46-2.55; I(2) = 0%) with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism had increased CRC risk. In the subgroup analysis according to site of CRC, survivin -31 G/C polymorphism was not associated with colon cancer risk (OR = 2.02; 95% CI, 0.79-5.22; I(2) = 82%). However, this polymorphism was significantly associated with rectum cancer risk (OR = 1.98; 95% CI, 1.42-2.74; I(2) = 0%). In the subgroup analysis by clinical stage, both early stage (I+II) and advanced stage (III+IV) were associated with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism (OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.20-2.16; I(2) = 0% and OR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.70-3.13; I(2) = 0%, respectively). In the subgroup analysis by smoke status, both smokers and non-smokers with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism showed increased CRC risk (OR = 1.47; 95% CI, 1.01-2.13; I(2) = 60% and OR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.28-2.30; I(2) = 0%, respectively). In the subgroup analysis by drink status, both drinkers and non-drinkers with survivin -31 G/C polymorphism showed increased CRC risk (OR = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.06-2.37; I(2) = 8% and OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1

  1. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age - A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions.

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors - responsible for age-related differences in decision making - are additionally pointed out.

  2. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Magnus Liebherr

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out.

  3. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out. PMID:29270145

  4. P2Y12 Receptor Antagonist, Clopidogrel, Does Not Contribute to Risk of Osteoporotic Fractures in Stroke Patients

    Jørgensen, Niklas R; Schwarz, Peter; Iversen, Helle K

    2017-01-01

    Background: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity. It is associated with excessive bone loss and risk of fracture in stroke patients is high. The P2Y12R antagonist and platelet inhibitor, clopidogrel, is widely used for secondary prevention after a stroke. However, recent studies...... have shown that clopidogrel has negative effects on bone and that long-term clopidogrel use is associated with increased fracture risk. The purpose of the current study was therefore to investigate the association of clopidogrel treatment with risk of fractures in stroke and TIA patients.......Methods:The study was a cohort study including all subjects who were prescribed clopidogrel between 1996 and 2008 in Denmark (n= 77,503). Age- and gender matched controls (n= 232,510) were randomly selected from the background population. The study end-points were occurrence of stroke or TIA and occurrence...

  5. Association between type 2 diabetes mellitus and disability: What is the contribution of diabetes risk factors and diabetes complications?

    Tabesh, Maryam; Shaw, Jonathan E; Zimmet, Paul Z; Söderberg, Stefan; Koye, Digsu N; Kowlessur, Sudhir; Timol, Maryam; Joonas, Noorjehan; Sorefan, Ameena; Gayan, Praneel; Alberti, K George M M; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Magliano, Dianna J

    2018-03-06

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between type 2 diabetes and disability in Mauritius and to assess the extent to which the effect of diabetes is explained by diabetes risk factors and concomitant complications. Data from a national survey in the multiethnic nation of Mauritius, which comprises South Asians and African Creoles, were analyzed. Disability was measured using the Katz activities of daily living questionnaire in participants aged >50 years. Among 3692 participants, 487 (13.2%) had some level of disability. Diabetes was associated with significantly higher risk of disability (odds ratio [OR] 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-2.08). After adjusting for demographic, behavioral, and metabolic factors, as well as comorbidities, disability was significantly associated with diabetes among African Creoles (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.16-3.56), but not South Asians (OR 1.27; 95% CI 0.98-1.66). Obesity explained much of the association between diabetes and disability (excess percentage of risk: 26.3% in South Asians and 12.1% in African Creoles). Obesity, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma-like symptoms, and depression together explained 46.5% and 29.0% of the excess risk in South Asians and African Creoles, respectively. Diabetes is associated with a 67% increased risk of disability. Diabetes risk factors and comorbidities explain more of the association between diabetes and disability among South Asians than Africans. Obesity and history of CVD explained the largest percentage of the relationship between diabetes and disability, indicating that weight and CVD management may be helpful in controlling disability related to diabetes. © 2018 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  6. A probabilistic assessment of the contribution of wastewater-irrigated lettuce to Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection risk and disease burden in Kumasi, Ghana.

    Seidu, Razak; Abubakari, Amina; Dennis, Isaac Amoah; Heistad, Arve; Stenstrom, Thor Axel; Larbi, John A; Abaidoo, Robert C

    2015-03-01

    Wastewater use for vegetable production is widespread across the cities of many developing countries. Studies on the microbial health risks associated with the practice have largely depended on faecal indicator organisms with potential underestimation or overestimation of the microbial health risks and disease burdens. This study assessed the Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection risk and diarrhoeal disease burden measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with the consumption of wastewater-irrigated lettuce in Kumasi, Ghana using data on E. coli O157:H7 in ready-to-harvest, wastewater-irrigated lettuce. Two exposure scenarios - best case and worst case - associated with a single consumption of wastewater-irrigated lettuce were assessed. The assessment revealed wastewater-irrigated lettuce is contributing to the transmission of E. coli O157:H7 in Kumasi, Ghana. The mean E. coli O157:H7 infection risk and DALYs in the wet and dry seasons, irrespective of the exposure scenario, were above the World Health Organization tolerable daily infection risk of 2.7 × 10⁻⁷ per person per day and 10⁻⁶ DALYs per person per year. It is recommended that legislation with clear monitoring indicators and penalties is implemented to ensure that farmers and food sellers fully implement risk mitigating measures.

  7. Lipid profiles reflecting high and low risk for coronary heart disease : Contribution of apolipoprotein E polymorphism and lifestyle

    Boer, J.M.A.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Schouten, E.G.; Havekes, L.M.; Seidell, J.C.; Kromhout, D.

    1998-01-01

    To elucidate the role of modifiable factors and the apolipoprotein E polymorphism in explaining lipid profiles reflecting low, average and high risk for coronary heart disease, we selected subjects from a large population-based study. Subjects with low total cholesterol (TC) (< 15th percentile) and

  8. Lipid profiles reflecting high and low risk for coronary heart disease: contribution of apolipoprotein E polymorphism and lifestyle.

    Boer, J.M.A.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Schouten, E.G.; Havekes, L.M.; Seidell, J.C.; Kromhout, D.

    1998-01-01

    To elucidate the role of modifiable factors and the apolipoprotein E polymorphism in explaining lipid profiles reflecting low, average and high risk for coronary heart disease, we selected subjects from a large population-based study. Subjects with low total cholesterol (TC) (<15th percentile)

  9. The Contribution of Parenting Practices and Parent Emotion Factors in Children at Risk for Disruptive Behavior Disorders

    Duncombe, Melissa E.; Havighurst, Sophie S.; Holland, Kerry A.; Frankling, Emma J.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were…

  10. The Contribution of Personality Traits, Motivation, Academic Risk-Taking and Metacognition to the Creative Ability in Mathematics

    Erbas, Ayhan Kursat; Bas, Selda

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which personality traits, motivation, academic risk-taking, and metacognition explain the mathematical creative ability of high school students. The participants were 217 9th-grade students that were exceptionally high achievers. The participants responded to a set of measures about…

  11. Contribution of industrial density and socioeconomic status to the spatial distribution of thyroid cancer risk in Hangzhou, China.

    Fei, Xufeng; Lou, Zhaohan; Christakos, George; Liu, Qingmin; Ren, Yanjun; Wu, Jiaping

    2018-02-01

    The thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased dramatically during the last three decades. Typical in this respect is the case of Hangzhou city (China), where 7147 new TC cases were diagnosed during the period 2008-2012. Hence, the assessment of the TC incidence risk increase due to environmental exposure is an important public health matter. Correlation analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Poisson regression were first used to evaluate the statistical association between TC and key risk factors (industrial density and socioeconomic status). Then, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory and the integrative disease predictability (IDP) criterion were combined to quantitatively assess both the overall and the spatially distributed strength of the "exposure-disease" association. Overall, higher socioeconomic status was positively correlated with higher TC risk (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.687, P<0.01). Compared to people of low socioeconomic status, people of median and high socioeconomic status showed higher TC risk: the Relative Risk (RR) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were found to be, respectively, RR=2.29 with 95% CI=1.99 to 2.63, and RR=3.67 with 95% CI=3.22 to 4.19. The "industrial density-TC incidence" correlation, however, was non-significant. Spatially, the "socioeconomic status-TC" association measured by the corresponding IDP coefficient was significant throughout the study area: the mean IDP value was -0.12 and the spatial IDP values were consistently negative at the township level. It was found that stronger associations were distributed among residents mainly on a stripe of land from northeast to southwest (consisting mainly of sub-district areas). The "industrial density-TC" association measured by its IDP coefficient was spatially non-consistent. Socioeconomic status is an important indicator of TC risk factor in Hangzhou (China) whose effect varies across space. Hence, socioeconomic status shows the highest TC

  12. Regulator of telomere elongation helicase 1 (RTEL1) rs6010620 polymorphism contribute to increased risk of glioma.

    Zhao, Wei; Bian, Yusong; Zhu, Wei; Zou, Peng; Tang, Guotai

    2014-06-01

    Regulator of telomere elongation helicase 1 (RTEL1) is critical for genome stability and tumor avoidance. Many studies have reported the associations of RTEL1 rs6010620 with glioma risk, but individually published results were inconclusive. This meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively summarize the evidence for such a relationship. The PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. The odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) were computed to estimate the strength of the association using a fixed or random effects model. Ten studies were eligible for meta-analysis including data on glioma with 6,490 cases and 9,288 controls. Overall, there was a significant association between RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk in all four genetic models (GG vs. AA: OR=1.87, 95 % CI=1.60-2.18, P heterogeneity=0.552; GA vs. AA: OR=1.30, 95 % CI=1.16-1.46, P heterogeneity=0.495; dominant model-GG+GA vs. AA: OR=1.46, 95 % CI=1.31-1.63, P heterogeneity=0.528; recessive model-GG vs. GA+AA: OR=1.36, 95 % CI=1.27-1.46, P heterogeneity=0.093). Subgroup analyses by ethnicity showed that RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism resulted in a higher risk of glioma among both Asians and Caucasians. In the stratified analysis by ethnicity and source of controls, significantly increased risk was observed for Asians and Europeans in all genetic models, population-based studies in all genetic models, and hospital-based studies in three genetic models (heterozygote comparison, homozygote comparison, and dominant model). Our meta-analysis suggested that RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism is likely to be associated with increased glioma risk, which lends further biological plausibility to these findings.

  13. Are safety data sheets for cleaning products used in Norway a factor contributing to the risk of workers exposure to chemicals?

    Abdulqadir M. Suleiman

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Cleaning products are considered less hazardous than those used in other sectors. Suppliers and distributors are less conscientious when it comes to informing users on health risks. The aim of the study was to elaborate on the usefulness and clarity of information in the safety data sheets (SDS for cleaning products, and considering if the use of these SDSs can be seen as a risk factor towards occupational exposure to hazardous chemicals in the sector. Material and Methods: Safety data sheets were selected based on the risk level of the product assigned in an industrial sector scheme. 320 SDSs for cleaning products were reviewed. Constituent components found in the products over a given threshold were listed and available information thereof used to assess the perceived non-hazard consideration of the chemicals. Results: The contents of the SDSs was generic and mostly incomplete. Safety measures and health information lacked sufficient specificity despite varying compositions and concentrations of components. There is generally incompatibility between mentioned sections on the suggested non-hazardous nature of the products and health effects. Not all substances used in these products have harmonized classifications, which makes them open to various classification of the products and the suggested safety measures. This results in different companies classifying similar products differently. Risk management measures and suggested personal protective equipment (PPEs are given haphazardly. Physical properties relevant to risk assessment are not included. Conclusions: The safety data sheets are ambiguous, and they lack relevant and important information. Inadequate information and risk assessment concerning the products can lead to workers being exposed to hazardous chemicals. Underestimation of the hazard contribution of the components of the products and the insufficient, non-objective mention of appropriate control and protective

  14. Supplementing the Braden scale for pressure ulcer risk among medical inpatients: the contribution of self-reported symptoms and standard laboratory tests.

    Skogestad, Ingrid Johansen; Martinsen, Liv; Børsting, Tove Elisabet; Granheim, Tove Irene; Ludvigsen, Eirin Sigurdssøn; Gay, Caryl L; Lerdal, Anners

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate medical inpatients' symptom experience and selected laboratory blood results as indicators of their pressure ulcer risk as measured by the Braden scale. Pressure ulcers reduce quality of life and increase treatment costs. The prevalence of pressure ulcers is 6-23% in hospital populations, but literature suggests that most pressure ulcers are avoidable. Prospective, cross-sectional survey. Three hundred and twenty-eight patients admitted to medical wards in an acute hospital in Oslo, Norway consented to participate. Data were collected on 10 days between 2012-2014 by registered nurses and nursing students. Pressure ulcer risk was assessed using the Braden scale, and scores indicated pressure ulcer risk. Skin examinations were categorised as normal or stages I-IV using established definitions. Comorbidities were collected by self-report. Self-reported symptom occurrence and distress were measured with 15 items from the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale, and pain was assessed using two numeric rating scales. Admission laboratory data were collected from medical records. Prevalence of pressure ulcers was 11·9, and 20·4% of patients were identified as being at risk for developing pressure ulcers. Multivariable analysis showed that pressure ulcer risk was positively associated with age ≥80 years, vomiting, severe pain at rest, urination problems, shortness of breath and low albumin and was negatively associated with nervousness. Our study indicates that using patient-reported symptoms and standard laboratory results as supplemental indicators of pressure ulcer risk may improve identification of vulnerable patients, but replication of these findings in other study samples is needed. Nurses play a key role in preventing pressure ulcers during hospitalisation. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms may improve the quality of care. Knowledge about symptoms associated with pressure ulcer risk may contribute to a faster clinical judgment of

  15. Can combining different risk interventions into a single formulation contribute to improved cardiovascular disease risk reduction? The single pill of amlodipine/atorvastatin

    FD Richard Hobbs

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available FD Richard HobbsUniversity of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.Abstract: In order to prevent cardiovascular events, it is essential to effectively manage overall risk of cardiovascular disease. However, despite guideline recommendations to this effect, current management of the major, modifiable cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and dyslipidemia is disconnected and patient adherence to therapy is poor. This is particularly important for patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors, who are often prescribed multiple medications. The JEWEL study program investigated the use of single-pill amlodipine/atorvastatin as a strategy to improve management of these patients. The JEWEL program consisted of two 16-week, international, openlabel, multicenter, titration-to-goal studies in patients with hypertension and dyslipidemia. The two studies differed based on country of enrollment and certain tertiary endpoints, but the overall designs were very similar. Patients were enrolled from 255 centers across Canada and 13 European countries. The study was designed to assess the efficacy, safety, and utility of amlodipine/atorvastatin single pill therapy in a real-world setting. Patients were initiated at a dose of amlodipine 5 mg/atorvastatin 10 mg, unless previously treated, and were uptitrated as necessary. The primary efficacy parameter was the percentage of patients, at different levels of cardiovascular risk, achieving country-specific guideline-recommended target levels for blood pressure and lipids. A secondary analysis of efficacy measured attainment of the same single goal for blood pressure across all study participants (JEWEL I and II and the same single goal for LDL-C across all study participants (JEWEL I and II. The program utilized a newly developed questionnaire to gain better understanding of participants’ beliefs and behaviors towards medical treatment of their multiple risk factors. Approximately 2850

  16. Policies from Evidence that Risk Starvation Causes Dementias and Depressions and May Contribute to a Range of Other Brain Morbidities

    Robin Pope

    2009-01-01

    In rich countries, the population percentage under drug therapy for depressions is rising rapidly decade by decade for children, adolescent and young adults with no evidence of any long term success for this chronic ailment. There is also in rich countries relative to most poor ones, for each age cohort, a dramatically higher incidence of dementias. This paper takes a fresh look at these evidences of happiness problems that are so much more prevalent in rich than poor countries. Risks are cha...

  17. The rs391957 variant cis-regulating oncogene GRP78 expression contributes to the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Zhu, Xiao; Zhang, Jinfang; Fan, Wenguo; Wang, Fang; Yao, Hong; Wang, Zifeng; Hou, Shengping; Tian, Yinghong; Fu, Weiming; Xie, Dan; Zhu, Wei; Long, Jun; Wu, Leijie; Zheng, Xuebao; Kung, Hsiangfu; Zhou, Keyuan; Lin, Marie C M; Luo, Hui; Li, Dongpei

    2013-06-01

    Glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78) is one of the most important responders to disease-related stress. We assessed the association of the promoter polymorphisms of GRP78 with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and GRP78 expression in a Chinese population. We examined 1007 patients undergoing diagnostic HCC and 810 unrelated healthy controls. Mechanisms by which the GRP78 promoter polymorphism modulates HCC risk and GRP78 levels were analyzed. The promoter haplotype and diplotype carrying rs391957 (-415bp) allele G and genotype GG was strongly associated with HCC risk. Luciferase reporter assays indicated that the promoter carrying rs391957 allele G (haplotype GCCd) showed increased activity in HepG2 cells and Hela cells. rs391957 was also shown to increase the affinity of the transcriptional activator Ets-2, the resistance to apoptosis, as well as cell instability in stressful microenvironment. Furthermore, compared with allele A, rs391957 allele G was associated with higher levels of GRP78 mRNA and protein in HCC tissues. These findings provided new insights into the pathogenesis of HCC and an unexpected effect of the interaction between rs391957 and Ets-2 on hepatocarcinogenesis, and especially supported the hypothesis that stress-related and evolutionarily conserved genetic variant(s) influencing transcriptional regulation could predict susceptibilities.

  18. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  19. A contribution towards the risk assessment of soils from the São Domingos Mine (Portugal): Chemical, microbial and ecotoxicological indicators

    Alvarenga, Paula; Palma, Patrícia; Varennes, Amarilis de; Cunha-Queda, Ana C.

    2012-01-01

    This study is a contribution towards a risk assessment of the São Domingos Mine area (Portugal), integrating information from: soil physicochemical characteristics, pseudo-total and bioavailable trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), ecotoxicological evaluation, and microbial indicators. The bioassays using soil eluates (seed germination, luminescent inhibition of Vibrio fischeri and Daphnia magna immobilization) confirmed the soil toxicity categorization obtained with the bioassays using soil (plant growth tests, Eisenia fetida mortality and avoidance behaviour). However, the soil identified as the most toxic using bioassays, was different from the expected when considering the results from pseudo-total and effective bioavailable trace elements. Taking in consideration the observations, it is highly recommended to complement the results from environmental chemistry with results from bioassays, in order to provide a more complete and relevant information on the bioavailability of contaminants and to characterize the risk of contaminated soils. - Highlights: ► Impaired soil retention and habitat functions for all tested soils. ► Aquatic and terrestrial bioassays agreed in the soil toxicity categorization. ► Do results obtained by chemical methods really translate into “biological availability”? ► In multi-contaminated sites, risk estimation based only on chemical methods is inadequate. ► Bioassays provide a more realistic risk assessment of contaminated sites. - Bioassays provide a more complete and relevant information to characterize the risk of contaminated soils, and should be used to complement chemical results.

  20. Contribution to the unified formalization of functional and organizational knowledge of an industrial system for a quantitative risks assessment and an estimation of barrier impacts

    Leger, A.

    2009-01-01

    Since the industrial revolution, human being develops industrial systems to meet his production needs. But the operation of such facilities involves risks for the users. As a result the risk analysis has expanded during these last decades. Indeed, if in the Seventies, the studies were focused on the technological failures, several major accidents have underlined the importance of human and organisational factors in their occurrence, and have changed this initial way of thinking. So that in the Eighties, different methods allowing an identification of these factors have emerged. These studies, implying different fields of expertise, were so far independently built and applied. This fact leads to sector-based analyses and prevents from having an overall view of the studied situation. But, recently, some methodologies propose to (partially) integrate these different methods to study risks in a global approach. This lack of integration constitutes nowadays a scientific and industrial issue for the owners of critical systems. Thus, our contribution concerns the development of a methodology enabling the risk analyses of socio-technical systems in operation. This kind of analysis aims to probabilistically estimate risks for helping the decision-making. In that way, we propose an approach that enables to formalise, integrate, characterise and represent the different knowledge of the system. Our model allows an identification of the whole of the causes that lead to the occurrence of a critical event, by considering the technical data of the system and the data related to human operators and organisational features. (author)

  1. Contribution of Genetic Background, Traditional Risk Factors, and HIV-Related Factors to Coronary Artery Disease Events in HIV-Positive Persons

    Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R.; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D.; Poloni, Estella S.; van 't Wout, Angélique B.; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A.; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S.; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M.; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; De Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H.; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; De Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R.; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A.; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C.; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. Methods In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. Results A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9×10−4). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16–1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49), ≥1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17–2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. Conclusions In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD. PMID:23532479

  2. Contribution of modifiable risk factors for hypertension and type-2 diabetes in Peruvian resource-limited settings.

    Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Smeeth, Liam; Miranda, J Jaime

    2016-01-01

    It is important to understand the local burden of non-communicable diseases including within-country heterogeneity. The aim of this study was to characterise hypertension and type-2 diabetes profiles across different Peruvian geographical settings emphasising the assessment of modifiable risk factors. Analysis of the CRONICAS Cohort Study baseline assessment was conducted. Cardiometabolic outcomes were blood pressure categories (hypertension, prehypertension, normal) and glucose metabolism disorder status (diabetes, prediabetes, normal). Exposures were study setting and six modifiable factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, leisure time and transport-related physical activity levels, TV watching, fruit/vegetables intake and obesity). Poisson regression models were used to report prevalence ratios (PR). Population attributable risks (PAR) were also estimated. Data from 3238 participants, 48.3% male, mean age 45.3 years, were analysed. Age-standardised (WHO population) prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension was 24% and 16%, whereas for prediabetes and type-2 diabetes it was 18% and 6%, respectively. Outcomes varied according to study setting (pdiabetes. PAR showed that obesity was an important determinant for hypertension (15.7%) and type-2 diabetes (23.9%). There is an evident heterogeneity in the prevalence of and risk factors for hypertension and diabetes within Peru. Prehypertension and prediabetes are highly prevalent across settings. Our results emphasise the need of understanding the epidemiology of cardiometabolic conditions to appropriately implement interventions to tackle the burden of non-communicable diseases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. The -675 4G/5G polymorphism in the PAI-1 gene may not contribute to the risk of PCOS.

    Zhang, T-T; Yuan, L; Yang, Y-M; Ren, Y

    2014-08-01

    The association between the -675 4G/5G polymorphism in PAI-1 gene and PCOS has been studied with inconclusive results. We sought to investigate this inconsistency by performing a comprehensive meta-analysis on the polymorphism. Searches were performed in the PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang databases, covering all papers. Statistical analysis was performed using Revman5.2 and STATA11.0 software. A total of 11 case-control studies were extracted on the polymorphism involving 1861 PCOS cases and 1187 controls. The results showed that, no significant increased/decreased risk were found for the polymorphism for PCOS: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.77-1.66, p = 0.52 for 4G4G + 4G5G vs. 5G5G; OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.66-1.49, p = 0.96 for 4G4G vs. 5G5G + 4G5G; OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.66-1.79, p = 0.76 for 4G4G vs. 5G5G; OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.78-1.58, p = 0.56 for 4G5G vs. 5G5G; OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.71-1.41, p = 0.99 for 4G vs. 5G. In the further subgroup analysis by ethnicity, we did not find a significant association between the polymorphism for PCOS risk in either Asians or Europeans. Our findings demonstrated that -675 4G/5G polymorphism in the PAI-1 gene might not be a risk factor for the development of PCOS.

  4. A functional TNFAIP2 3'-UTR rs8126 genetic polymorphism contributes to risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Jian Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accumulated evidences demonstrated that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in mRNA 3'-untranslated region (3'-UTR may impact microRNAs (miRNAs-mediated expression regulation of oncogenes and tumor suppressors. There is a TNFAIP2 3'-UTR rs8126 T>C genetic variant which has been proved to be associated with head and neck cancer susceptibility. This SNP could disturb binding of miR-184 with TNFAIP2 mRNA and influence TNFAIP2 regulation. However, it is still unclear how this polymorphism is involved in development of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC. Therefore, we hypothesized that the functional TNFAIP2 rs8126 SNP may affect TNFAIP2 expression and, thus, ESCC risk. METHODS: We investigated the association between the TNFAIP2 rs8126 variant and ESCC risk as well as the functional relevance on TNFAIP2 expression in vivo. Genotypes were determined in a case-control set consisted of 588 ESCC patients and 600 controls. The allele-specific regulation on TNFAIP2 expression by the rs8126 SNP was examined in normal and cancerous tissue specimens of esophagus. RESULTS: We found that individuals carrying the rs8126 CC or CT genotype had an OR of 1.89 (95%CI  = 1.23-2.85, P = 0.003 or 1.38 (95%CI  = 1.05-1.73, P = 0.017 for developing ESCC in Chinese compared with individual carrying the TT genotype. Carriers of the rs8126 CC and CT genotypes had significantly lower TNFAIP2 mRNA levels than those with the TT genotypes in normal esophagus tissues (P<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that functional TNFAIP2 rs8126 genetic variant is a ESCC susceptibility SNP. These results support the hypothesis that genetic variants interrupting miRNA-mediated gene regulation might be important genetic modifiers of cancer risk.

  5. Genetic association study identifies a functional CNV in the WWOX gene contributes to the risk of intracranial aneurysms.

    Fan, Jin; Sun, Wen; Lin, Min; Yu, Ke; Wang, Jian; Duan, Dan; Zheng, Bo; Yang, Zhenghui; Wang, Qingsong

    2016-03-29

    Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) accounts for 85% of hemorrhagic stroke. Genetic factors have been known to play an important role in the development of IAs. A functional CNV (CNV-67048) of human WW domain-containing oxidoreductase (WWOX), which has been identified as a tumor suppressor gene in multiple cancers, was identified to be associated with gliomas risk previously. Here, we hypothesized that the CNV-67048 could also affect susceptibility of IAs. Based on a two-stage, case- control study with a total of 976 patients of IAs and 1,200 matched healthy controls, we found the effect size for per copy deletion was 1.35 (95% CI = 1.16-1.57; Ptrend = 1.18 × 10-4). Compared with the individuals having no deletion, significantly higher risk of IAs was detected for both subjects carrying 1 copy deletion (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.02-1.52) and subjects carrying 2 copy deletion (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.24-2.53). Real-time PCR was used to confirm the abnormal expression of WWOX in tissues of IA patients and influence of genotypes of CNV-67048. The expression level of WWOX in IA tissues was significantly lower than that in corresponding normal tissues (P = 0.004), and the deletion genotypes of CNV-67048 have lower WWOX mRNA levels in both tumor tissues and border tissues (P 48 in WWOX predispose their carriers to IAs, which might be a genetic biomarker to predict risk of IAs in Chinese.

  6. Preoperative TSH level and risk of thyroid cancer in patients with nodular thyroid disease: nodule size contribution.

    Zafón, Carles; Obiols, Gabriel; Mesa, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    Many reports have supported the relationship between high preoperative TSH levels and risk of thyroid cancer in nodular thyroid disease (NTD). We investigated whether TSH levels are related to the risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) in patients who have undergone total thyroidectomy for NTD. The relationship between TSH and size of malignant nodule was investigated. Finally, we assessed whether TSH levels are related to DTC and presence of additional benign nodules. A retrospective study of 980 patients was conducted. Variables included age at diagnosis, TSH level, nodule size, gender, final histology (benign versus DTC), and type of malignancy. Malignancy was present in 261 (26.6%) patients. These patients had higher median TSH levels as compared to those with no malignancy (1.61 mU/L (0.9-2.5) versus 0.9 mU/L (0.3-1.6); p-value<0.001). TSH was higher in patients with DTC in whom the largest nodule was malignant than in patients in whom the largest nodule was benign (1.80 mU/L (1.1-2.6) versus 1.38 mU/L (0.7-2.1) respectively; p-value=0.025). A significant correlation was seen between malignant nodule size and TSH level, but not between TSH levels and size of the largest benign nodule. Our study supported an association between preoperative TSH levels and risk of DTC in patients with NTD. There was also a direct relationship between malignant nodule size and TSH levels. By contrast, no relationship was found between the size of benign nodules and TSH levels. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Non-modifiable worker and workplace risk factors contributing to workplace absence: A stakeholder-centred synthesis of systematic reviews.

    White, Marc I; Wagner, Shannon L; Schultz, Izabela Z; Murray, Eleanor; Bradley, Susan M; Hsu, Vernita; McGuire, Lisa; Schulz, Werner

    2015-01-01

    Workplace stakeholders report the identification and translation of relevant high quality research to inform workplace disability policy and practice is a challenge. The present study engaged academic and community stakeholders in conducting a best evidence-synthesis to identify non-modifiable risk and protective worker and workplace factors impacting work-related absence across a variety of health conditions. To identify non-modifiable worker and workplace disability risk and protective factors impacting work-related absence across common health conditions. The research team searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, BusinessSource-Complete, and ABI/Inform from 2000 to 2011. Quantitative, qualitative, or mixed methods systematic reviews of work-focused population were considered for inclusion. Two or more reviewers independently reviewed articles for inclusion and methodological screening. The search strategy, including expert input and grey literature, led to the identification of 2,467 unique records. From this initial search, 2325 were eliminated by title or abstract review, 142 articles underwent comprehensive review to assess for inclusion, 26 systematic reviews met eligibility criteria for this synthesis. For non-modifiable worker and workplace factors we found consistent evidence across two or more health conditions for increased risk of disability in situations where workers experience lower education, older age, emotional distress, poor personal functioning, decreased physical functioning, psychological symptoms, overweight status, and greater sick leave history. Heterogeneity of existing literature due to differences in outcome measures, definitions and research designs limited ability to assess effect size and results reflect findings limited to English-language papers.

  8. Mammographic density and structural features can individually and jointly contribute to breast cancer risk assessment in mammography screening

    Winkel, Rikke Rass; von Euler-Chelpin, My Catarina; Nielsen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    and jointly with density can improve the ability to identify screening women at increased risk of breast cancer. METHODS: The study included 121 cases and 259 age- and time matched controls based on a cohort of 14,736 women with negative screening mammograms from a population-based screening programme...... in Denmark in 2007 (followed until 31 December 2010). Mammograms were assessed using the Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density classification, Tabár's classification on parenchymal patterns and a fully automated texture quantification technique. The individual and combined association...

  9. No contribution of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes to the risk of neutropenia due to benzene exposure in Southeastern Brazil

    Carmen Silvia Passos Lima

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Exposure to benzene has been associated with haematological diseases such as neutropenia (NEB and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML. We tested whether the null genotypes of the GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes, involved in benzene inactivation, altered the risk for NEB in southeastern Brazil. Genomic DNA from 55 NEB patients and 330 controls was analysed by multiplex-polymerase chain reaction. The frequency of the GSTM1, GSTT1 and combined null genotypes was similar in patients and controls (GSTM1, 27.3% vs. 38.8%, p = 0.16; GSTT1, 25.5% vs. 19.7%, p = 0.24; GSTM1/GSTT1, 12.7% vs. 6.7%, p = 0.26; respectively. The distribution of genotype classes in NEB patients was similar to normal controls, suggesting that GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes make no specific contribution to the risk of NEB. As the GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes were previously associated with increased risk for AML in Brazil and elsewhere, we hypothesise that different thresholds of chemical exposure relative to distinct GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes may determine whether AML or NEB manifests in benzene exposed individuals from southeastern Brazil. Although indicative, our results still require support by prospective and large scale epidemiological studies, with rigorous assessment of daily chemical exposures and control of the possible contribution of other polymorphic genes involved in benzene metabolism.

  10. MiR-2964a-5p binding site SNP regulates ATM expression contributing to age-related cataract risk.

    Rong, Han; Gu, Shanshan; Zhang, Guowei; Kang, Lihua; Yang, Mei; Zhang, Junfang; Shen, Xinyue; Guan, Huaijin

    2017-10-17

    This study was to explore the involvement of DNA repair genes in the pathogenesis of age-related cataract (ARC). We genotyped nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of genes responsible to DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) in 804 ARC cases and 804 controls in a cohort of eye diseases in Chinese population and found that the ataxia telangiectasia mutated ( ATM ) gene-rs4585:G>T was significantly associated with ARC risk. An in vitro functional test found that miR-2964a-5p specifically down-regulated luciferase reporter expression and ATM expression in the cell lines transfected with rs4585 T allele compared to rs4585 G allele. The molecular assay on human tissue samples discovered that ATM expression was down-regulated in majority of ARC tissues and correlated with ATM genotypes. In addition, the Comet assay of cellular DNA damage of peripheral lymphocytes indicated that individuals carrying the G allele (GG/GT) of ATM -rs4585 had lower DNA breaks compared to individuals with TT genotype. These findings suggested that the SNP rs4585 in ATM might affect ARC risk through modulating the regulatory affinity of miR-2964a-5p. The reduced DSBs repair might be involved in ARC pathogenesis.

  11. Modifiable worker risk factors contributing to workplace absence: a stakeholder-centred best-evidence synthesis of systematic reviews.

    Wagner, Shannon; White, Marc; Schultz, Izabela; Murray, Eleanor; Bradley, Susan M; Hsu, Vernita; McGuire, Lisa; Schulz, Werner

    2014-01-01

    A challenge facing stakeholders is the identification and translation of relevant high quality research to inform policy and practice. This study engaged academic and community stakeholders in conducting a best evidence-synthesis to identify modifiable risk and protective worker factors across health conditions impacting work-related absence. To identify modifiable worker disability risk and protective factors across common health conditions impacting work-related absence. We searched Medline, Embase, CINHAL, The Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, BusinessSourceComplete, and ABI/Inform from 2000 to 2011. Quantitative, qualitative, or mixed methods systematic reviews of work-focused population were considered for inclusion. Two or more reviewers independently reviewed articles for inclusion and methodological screening. The search strategy, expert input and grey literature identified 2,467 unique records. One hundred and forty-two full text articles underwent comprehensive review. Twenty-four systematic reviews met eligibility criteria. Modifiable worker factors found to have consistent evidence across two or more health conditions included emotional distress, negative enduring psychology/personality factors, negative health and disability perception, decreased physical activity, lack of family support, poor general health, increased functional disability, increased pain, increased fatigue and lack of motivation to return to work. Systematic reviews are limited by availability of high quality studies, lack of consistency of methodological screening and reporting, and variability of outcome measures used.

  12. Reasoning and mathematical skills contribute to normatively superior decision making under risk: evidence from the game of dice task.

    Pertl, Marie-Theres; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we assessed to what extent reasoning improves performance in decision making under risk in a laboratory gambling task (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D). We also investigated to what degree individuals with above average mathematical competence decide better than those with average mathematical competence. Eighty-five participants performed the GDT-D and several numerical tasks. Forty-two individuals were asked to calculate the probabilities and the outcomes associated with the different options of the GDT-D before performing it. The other 43 individuals performed the GDT-D at the beginning of the test session. Both reasoning and mathematical competence had a positive effect on decision making. Different measures of mathematical competence correlated with advantageous performance in decision making. Results suggest that decision making under explicit risk conditions improves when individuals are encouraged to reflect about the contingencies of a decision situation. Interventions based on numerical reasoning may also be useful for patients with difficulties in decision making.

  13. Contribution for tier 1 of the ecological risk assessment of Cunha Baixa uranium mine (Central Portugal): II. Soil ecotoxicological screening

    Antunes, S.C.; Castro, B.B.; Pereira, R.; Goncalves, F.

    2008-01-01

    This study presents the first ecotoxicological data concerning the soils of the area surrounding the Cunha Baixa uranium mine. Our main goal was to categorise soils from the area based on their toxicity profiles using a battery of cost- and time-effective bioassays (elutriate approach - Microtox (registered) and Daphnia acute tests; whole-soil approach - Microtox (registered) and avoidance assays with Eisenia andrei), as a part of tier 1 of an ongoing Environmental Risk Assessment. No acute toxicity was found for any of the 10 sites/soils using Microtox (registered) or Daphnia. On the contrary, the behavioural response of E. andrei was found to be an extremely sensitive endpoint, allowing the discrimination of highly to moderately toxic soils based on their toxicity profiles (as a function of soil concentration). Soils exhibiting highest toxicity corresponded to areas subjected to runoffs or sludge deposition from the aquatic effluent, while non-toxic soils were farthest to the mine. Data obtained in avoidance assays strengthen the previous evaluation of risks based on chemical data and supported decisions about proceeding for tier 2

  14. A Bilateral U.S. - Russia Contribution to Disaster Risk Reduction in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Eichelberger, J. C.; Gordeev, E.; Bratton, J.; Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2012-12-01

    An accepted principle of disaster risk reduction is that all stakeholders should be engaged in the process. For extreme geophysical events, this almost always means stakeholders in more than one country. Even when the direct impacts on the ground from violent shaking or explosive eruptions are confined to a single country, effects to lives and property may be carried thousands of kilometers from the event source by tsunamis or ash clouds, respectively. The formation of G-EVER recognizes the need for neighbors to join together on disaster risk reduction. There is much to be gained by sharing real-time monitoring data and databases on past extreme events, mapping risks seamlessly across borders, and establishing best practices through sharing of experiences. Each extreme event is a learning opportunity, and the recent lessons have been particularly painful. Our science, while progressing, is still inadequate both in content and in application. There has also been lack of recognition that the "worst case" is indeed possible. Among the various collaborations needed to reduce disaster risk is bilateral collaboration, because borders are obstacles and exist between two countries with rules that have been determined by those countries. Borders are used by all countries for protection of national and economic security. They restrict flow of people, equipment, and information, but not seismic waves, tsunamis, and ash. Even the relatively minor event of sea ice arriving early in Nome, Alaska last fall involved both Russia and the U.S. in a relief effort to bring fuel. It is the responsibility of natural hazard scientists and crisis managers to work together across borders, and where necessary make the case to their governments for sharing of data and information based on an expanded view of national security. The Bilateral Presidential Commission initiated by U.S. President Barrack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has provided a framework in which to expand

  15. Contribution of common non-synonymous variants in PCSK1 to body-mass index variation and risk of obesity

    Nead, Kevin T; Li, Aihua; Wehner, Mackenzie R

    2015-01-01

    data in up to 331,175 individuals from diverse ethnic groups. This process involved a systematic review of the literature in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and the NIH GWAS catalog complemented by data extraction from pre-existing GWAS or custom-arrays in consortia and single studies. We employed......Polymorphisms rs6232 and rs6234/rs6235 in PCSK1 have been associated with extreme obesity (e.g. body mass index [BMI]≥40 kg/m(2)), but their contribution to common obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m(2)) and BMI variation in a multi-ethnic context is unclear. To fill this gap, we collected phenotypic and genetic...

  16. Epidemiological studies in high-background radiation areas its potential contribution to evaluating risk of low-level radiation

    Akiba, Suminori; Nair, R.K.; Nakamura, Seiichi; Mizuno, Shoich

    2008-01-01

    The health effect of low-level ionizing radiation is yet unclear. As pointed out by Upton in his review (Upton, 1989), low-level ionizing radiation seems to have different biological effects from what high-level radiation has. Its evaluation requires epidemiological studies of scale-large cohorts (ICRP 99, 2005) such of atomic bomb survivors and nuclear workers. Epidemiological studies in high-background radiation (HBR) areas are also expected to make a significant contribution toward this end. Among several HBR areas in the world, Yangjiang, Guangdong Province in China, Karunagappally in Kerala State of India, Manawalakurichi and Koodankulam in Tamil Nadu of India, and Ramsar in Iran are important areas where epidemiological studies are possible, because of their relatively high background radiation levels and large population sizes. (author)

  17. Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer; Britch, S. C.; Tucker, C. J.

    2012-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever are directly influenced by large scale flooding associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillation. This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential Rift Valley fever outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

  18. Active muscle response contributes to increased injury risk of lower extremity in occupant-knee airbag interaction.

    Nie, Bingbing; Sathyanarayan, Deepak; Ye, Xin; Crandall, Jeff R; Panzer, Matthew B

    2018-02-28

    Recent field data analysis has demonstrated that knee airbags (KABs) can reduce occupant femur and pelvis injuries but may be insufficient to decrease leg injuries in motor vehicle crashes. An enhanced understanding of the associated injury mechanisms requires accurate assessment of physiological-based occupant parameters, some of which are difficult or impossible to obtain from experiments. This study sought to explore how active muscle response can influence the injury risk of lower extremities during KAB deployment using computational biomechanical analysis. A full-factorial matrix, consisting of 48 finite element simulations of a 50th percentile occupant human model in a simplified vehicle interior, was designed. The matrix included 32 new cases in combination with 16 previously reported cases. The following influencing factors were taken into account: muscle activation, KAB use, KAB design, pre-impact seating position, and crash mode. Responses of 32 lower extremity muscles during emergency braking were replicated using one-dimensional elements of a Hill-type constitutive model, with the activation level determined from inverse dynamics and validated by existing volunteer tests. Dynamics of unfolding and inflating of the KABs were represented using the state-of-the-art corpuscular particle method. Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ injury risks of the knee-thigh-hip (KTH) complex and the tibia were assessed using axial force and resultant bending moments. With all simulation cases being taken together, a general linear model was used to assess factor significance (P systems. Future efforts are recommended on realistic vehicle and restraint environment and advanced modeling strategies toward a full understanding of KAB efficacy.

  19. Factors contributing to postpartum blood-loss in low-risk mothers through expectant management in Japanese birth centres.

    Eto, Hiromi; Hasegawa, Ayako; Kataoka, Yaeko; Porter, Sarah E

    2017-08-01

    To describe aspects of expectant midwifery care for low-risk women conducted in midwifery-managed birth centres during the first two critical hours after delivery and to compare differences between midwifery care, client factors and postpartum blood loss volume. As a secondary analysis from a larger study, this descriptive retrospective study examined data from birth records of 4051 women who birthed from 2001 to 2006 at nine (21%) of the 43 midwifery centres in Tokyo. Nonparametric and parametric analyses identified factors related to increased blood loss. Interviews to establish sequence of midwifery care were conducted. The midwifery centres provided care based on expectant management principles from birth to after expulsion of the placenta. Approximately 63.3% of women were within the normal limits of blood loss volume under 500g. A minority of women (12.9%) experienced blood loss between 500 and 800g and 4% had blood loss exceeding 1000g. Blood loss volume tended to increase with infant birth weight and duration of delivery. The total blood loss volume was significantly higher for primiparas than for multiparas during the critical two hours after delivery and for immediately after delivery, yet blood loss volume was significantly higher for multiparas than for primiparas during the first hour after delivery. Preventive uterine massage and umbilical cord clamping after placenta expulsion resulted in statistically significant less blood loss. Identified were two patterns of midwifery care based on expectant management principles from birth to after expulsion of the placenta. The practice of expectant management was not a significant factor for increased postpartum blood loss. These results detail specific midwifery practices and highlight the clinical significance of expectant management with low risk pregnant women experiencing a normal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

    Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R; Junier, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    in the setting of HIV infection. METHODS: In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies......, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. RESULTS: A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9 × 10(-4)). In the final multivariable model, participants...

  1. Social Cognition, Child Neglect, and Child Injury Risk: The Contribution of Maternal Social Information Processing to Maladaptive Injury Prevention Beliefs Within a High-Risk Sample.

    Azar, Sandra T; Miller, Elizabeth A; Stevenson, Michael T; Johnson, David R

    2017-08-01

    Inadequate supervision has been linked to children's injuries. Parental injury prevention beliefs may play a role in supervision, yet little theory has examined the origins of such beliefs. This study examined whether mothers who perpetrated child neglect, who as a group provide inadequate supervision, have more maladaptive beliefs. Then, it tested a social information processing (SIP) model for explaining these beliefs. SIP and injury prevention beliefs were assessed in disadvantaged mothers of preschoolers (N  =  145), half with child neglect histories. The neglect group exhibited significantly more maladaptive injury prevention beliefs than comparisons. As predicted, SIP was linked to beliefs that may increase injury risk, even after accounting for relevant sociodemographic variables. Findings support the link of beliefs to injury risk and suggest that specific cognitive problems may underlie these beliefs. Future work should further validate this model, which may inform enhancements to prevention efforts. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. A polymorphism upstream MIR1279 gene is associated with pericarditis development in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and contributes to definition of a genetic risk profile for this complication.

    Ciccacci, C; Perricone, C; Politi, C; Rufini, S; Ceccarelli, F; Cipriano, E; Alessandri, C; Latini, A; Valesini, G; Novelli, G; Conti, F; Borgiani, P

    2017-07-01

    Recently, a study has shown that a polymorphism in the region of MIR1279 modulates the expression of the TRAF3IP2 gene. Since polymorphisms in the TRAF3IP2 gene have been described in association with systemic lupus erithematosus (SLE) susceptibility and with the development of pericarditis, our aim is to verify if the MIR1279 gene variability could also be involved. The rs1463335 SNP, located upstream MIR1279 gene, was analyzed by allelic discrimination assay in 315 Italian SLE patients and 201 healthy controls. Moreover, the MIR1279 gene was full sequenced in 50 patients. A case/control association study and a genotype/phenotype correlation analysis were performed. We also constructed a pericarditis genetic risk profile for patients with SLE. The full sequencing of the MIR1279 gene in patients with SLE did not reveal any novel or known variation. The variant allele of the rs1463335 SNP was significantly associated with susceptibility to pericarditis ( P = 0.017 and OR = 1.67). A risk profile model for pericarditis considering the risk alleles of MIR1279 and three other genes (STAT4, PTPN2 and TRAF3IP2) showed that patients with 4 or 5 risk alleles have a higher risk of developing pericarditis ( OR = 4.09 with P = 0.001 and OR = 6.04 with P = 0.04 respectively). In conclusion, we describe for the first time the contribution of a MIR1279 SNP in pericarditis development in patients with SLE and a genetic risk profile model that could be useful to identify patients more susceptible to developing pericarditis in SLE. This approach could help to improve the prediction and the management of this complication.

  3. No Major Host Genetic Risk Factor Contributed to A(H1N1)2009 Influenza Severity.

    Garcia-Etxebarria, Koldo; Bracho, María Alma; Galán, Juan Carlos; Pumarola, Tomàs; Castilla, Jesús; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raúl; Rodríguez-Dominguez, Mario; Quintela, Inés; Bonet, Núria; Garcia-Garcerà, Marc; Domínguez, Angela; González-Candelas, Fernando; Calafell, Francesc

    2015-01-01

    While most patients affected by the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic experienced mild symptoms, a small fraction required hospitalization, often without concomitant factors that could explain such a severe course. We hypothesize that host genetic factors could contribute to aggravate the disease. To test this hypothesis, we compared the allele frequencies of 547,296 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between 49 severe and 107 mild confirmed influenza A cases, as well as against a general population sample of 549 individuals. When comparing severe vs. mild influenza A cases, only one SNP was close to the conventional p = 5×10-8. This SNP, rs28454025, sits in an intron of the GSK233 gene, which is involved in a neural development, but seems not to have any connections with immunological or inflammatory functions. Indirectly, a previous association reported with CD55 was replicated. Although sample sizes are low, we show that the statistical power in our design was sufficient to detect highly-penetrant, quasi-Mendelian genetic factors. Hence, and assuming that rs28454025 is likely to be a false positive, no major genetic factor was detected that could explain poor influenza A course.

  4. What is the contribution of two genetic variants regulating VEGF levels to type 2 diabetes risk and to microvascular complications?

    Bonnefond, Amélie; Saulnier, Pierre-Jean; Stathopoulou, Maria G

    2013-01-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a key chemokine involved in tissue growth and organ repair processes, particularly angiogenesis. Elevated circulating VEGF levels are believed to play a role in type 2 diabetes (T2D) microvascular complications, especially diabetic retinopathy. Recently...... for diabetic nephropathy (N(cases)¿=¿1,242-N(controls)¿=¿860) and the other for diabetic retinopathy (N(cases)¿=¿1,336-N(controls)¿=¿1,231). The effects of each SNP on quantitative traits were analyzed in a French general population-based cohort (N¿=¿4,760) and two French T2D studies (N¿=¿3,480). SNP...... on diabetic microvascular complications or the variation in related traits in T2D patients.In spite of their impact on the variance in circulating VEGF, we did not find any association between SNPs rs6921438 and rs10738760, and the risk of T2D, diabetic nephropathy or retinopathy. The link between VEGF and T2...

  5. Risk and protection factors in the peer context: how do other children contribute to the psychosocial adjustment of the adolescent?

    Marie-Hélène Véronneau

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available As children become adolescents, peers assume greater importance in their lives. Peer experiences can either help them thrive or negatively affect their psychosocial adjustment. In this review article definitions for the types of peer experiences are provided followed by an overview of common psychosocial issues encountered by adolescents. Past research that has pointed to risk and protection factors that emerge from peer experiences during adolescence and the role of peer influences in the context of current issues relevant to adolescent education are discussed. Research suggests that friendships with deviant peers, involvement in bullying and the experience of rejection from the overall peer group are related to adjustment problems, whereas friendships with prosocial and academically oriented peers and social acceptance in the peer group are related to healthy development. Friendship quality, popularity among peers, and involvement in friendship cliques cannot be clearly categorized as either positive or negative influences, because they interact with other factors in shaping the development of adolescents. The promotion of social skills and positive youth leadership as an integral part of the student's learning process in school is recommended.

  6. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  7. Evaluation of Potential Risk Factors that contribute to Malignant Transformation of Oral Lichen Planus: A Literature Review.

    Agha-Hosseini, Farzaneh; Sheykhbahaei, Nafiseh; SadrZadeh-Afshar, Maryam-Sadat

    2016-08-01

    Many studies have suggested that a lesion originally diagnosed as oral lichen planus (OLP) has different possibilities of undergoing malignant transformation in time, although these findings remain a controversial issue; for example, some studies reported different values of potential malignancy of OLP. World Health Organization (WHO) classifies OLP as a "potentially malignant disorder" with unspecified malignant transformation risk, and suggests that OLP patients should be closely monitored. Numerous studies have attempted to confirm the malignant transformation potential of OLP. The Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Medline and EMBASE databases, PubMed, Google Scholar, Ovid, Up To Date, BMJ Clinical Evidence, MD Consult, and Science Direct were searched for papers published between 1997 and 2015. The medical subject heading search terms were "lichen planus," "oral lichen planus," "erosive oral lichen planus," "dysplasia," "oral precancerous condition," "oral premalignant condition," oral cancer, oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), and atrophic lichen planus. A total of 120 English language abstracts were reviewed, and 50 relevant articles identified. Because of the extensive literature on the association between OLP and SCC, we have divided the data into genetic and non-genetic factors for more accurate assessment. In this evidence base, malignant transformation ranges from 0 to 37% with a mean of 4.59%. The highest rate of malignancy was noted in erythematosus and erosive lesions. In this way, follow-up of OLP patients could be carried out more efficiently and appropriately. Oral lichen planus is a premalignant lesion. All types of OLP in any site of oral mucosa must be monitored regularly.

  8. The contribution of work characteristics and risk propensity in explaining pro-social rule breaking among teachers in Wakiso District, Uganda

    Waweru I. Kahari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: This study explored the mechanisms that drive pro-social rule breaking among teachers in Ugandan private secondary schools. Research purpose: The main aim of this study was to examine the contribution of work characteristics and risk propensity in promoting pro-social rule breaking among teachers in one of the Ugandan districts that has a high number of private schools. Motivation for the study: As there is a scarcity of research on pro-social rule breaking in Uganda, this study sought to explore the concept and shed light on the mechanisms that influence this. Research design, approach and method: A quantitative research process formed the basis for this study. Two hundred and forty-two teachers from 15 private secondary schools in Wakiso District formed the targeted sample size. A response rate of 87% was registered. A hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in order to assess the influence of each of the variables on the dependent variable, by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Main findings: The regression results showed that work characteristics were a statistically significant predictor of pro-social rule breaking, but risk propensity was not. The results finally showed that there was no moderation effect of risk propensity on the relationship between work characteristics and pro-social rule breaking. Practical implications: The schools should expect more pro-social rule-breaking tendencies when the tasks given to the teachers are complex and when the teachers operate with autonomy. The environment in which the private secondary school teachers in Uganda work, motivates them to sometimes break rules in a bid to perform better or minimise the complexity associated with work. Contribution: This study expands on current theoretical knowledge on pro-social rule breaking and provides insights into the key drivers of the same among private secondary school teachers in the Ugandan context.

  9. Perinatal testosterone contributes to mid-to-post pubertal sex differences in risk for binge eating in male and female rats.

    Culbert, Kristen M; Sinclair, Elaine B; Hildebrandt, Britny A; Klump, Kelly L; Sisk, Cheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Exposure to testosterone early in life may contribute to sex differences and pubertal changes in risk for eating pathology (i.e., females > males, after pubertal onset). Specifically, perinatal testosterone permanently alters brain structure/function and drives the masculinization of several sex-differentiated behaviors. However, the effects of perinatal testosterone are often not evident until puberty when increases in gonadal hormones activate the expression of sex typical behavior, including eating behaviors (e.g., chow intake; saccharin preference) in rodents. Despite perinatal testosterone's masculinizing effects on general feeding behavior, it remains unknown if perinatal testosterone exposure contributes to sex differences in pathological eating. The current study addressed this gap by examining whether perinatal testosterone exposure decreases risk for binge eating proneness after pubertal onset in male and female rats. Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 40 oil-treated control females; n = 39 testosterone-treated females; n = 40 oil-treated control males) were followed longitudinally across pre-to-early puberty, mid-to-late puberty, and adulthood. The binge eating prone (BEP)/binge eating resistant (BER) rodent model was used to identify individual differences in binge eating proneness across the dimensional spectrum. As expected, testosterone-treated females and control males showed masculinized (i.e., lower) risk for binge eating as compared to control females, but only after midpuberty. These animal data are significant in suggesting that perinatal testosterone exposure may protect against binge eating and underlie sex differences in binge eating prevalence during and after puberty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

    Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

    1998-03-01

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous

  11. Risk Based Requirements for Long Term Stewardship: A Proof-of-Principle Analysis of an Analytic Method Tested on Selected Hanford Locations

    GM Gelston; JW Buck; LR Huesties; MS Peffers; TB Miley; TT Jarvis; WB Andrews

    1998-12-03

    Since 1989, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate DOE, 1995a, the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controls limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little irdiormation about post- cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about fiture site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.

  12. Contribution to the development of new analytical methods by the coupling between capillary electrophoresis and mass spectrometry (ICP-MS and ESI-MS): applications to the nuclear and biological fields

    Pitois, A.

    2006-04-01

    The coupling between chromatographic and electrophoretic separation techniques and mass spectrometry is used to combine the efficiency of the separation technique to the selectivity and sensitivity of the detectors. In this work, the number of applications of the CE-MS couplings has been increased. New analytical methods have been set up in the nuclear and biological fields. New analytical methods for the determination of fission products (cesium and lanthanides) have been developed by CE-ICP-MS. They enable to determine both concentration and isotopic composition of the fission products for very low detection limits (ng/mL by CE-Q-ICPMS, pg/mL by CE-HR-ICP-MS), since all the isobaric interferences are resolved. Moreover, only some nano-liters of sample are necessary to perform the analysis. These method have been applied with success to a simulated sample of spent fuel, to a nuclear sample from PUREX process and to a leaching of MOX fuel. Then, lanthanides have been analysed by CE-ESI-MS and the capability of ESI-MS to provide structural information has been studied. Elementary information has been obtained for strong potentials. Structural information has been obtained for low potentials. Finally, a new analytical method by CE-ESI-MS for the determination of 10B-boronophenylalanine (10B-BPA) has been developed for Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT). It has been applied to the cellular lines F98 and HUVEC. This CE-ESI-MS method has been validated by HR-ICP-MS. It enables a direct quantification of the chemical form 10B-BPA in samples of limited size (some nano-liters) and for low concentrations (ng/mL). As a consequence, this CE-ESI-MS method has enabled the study of the kinetics of 10B-BPA release and uptake for the F98 cells. (author)

  13. About the contribution of occupational health's services for risk factors evaluation, medical and dosimetric follow-up in the workers monitoring exposed to ionising radiations in France

    Bailloeuil, C.; Gonin, M.; Gerondal, M.

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: French national regulation (31/03/2003) indicates principles of a global approach about the medical and dosimetric follow-up in the workers monitoring. Legislator insists on risks and expositions trace ability along all professional career and after. The aim of this French specific system is to institute medical clinic aspects in accordance with dosimetry and professional risks. The occupational practitioners are approved practitioners who have followed a specific training. The organisation guarantees that a worker will be followed by one specific practitioner in order to reinforce the quality and the traceability of follow up. Medical supervision is done at taking on and at least once a year. It means to identify and take care of risks and expositions at work stations. If necessary, biological measurements and recommendations about collective and individual protection equipments complete the estimation of risks. On the subject of emergency, first aid is delivered on sites by occupational health personnel, either for classic medical problem or for radiological accident. Furthermore, occupational health personnel assist outside emergency services with whom we have specific conventions. External dosimetric follow-up is done with radiation protection qualified expert of the company. The internal contamination supervision and internal dose evaluation are done by the occupational health services. Measurements either whole body counts or radio-toxicologic analysis are submitted to technical quality process. Beyond the respect of regulatory dose limits, the aim of the dosimetric follow-up is the contribution to the preparation of work places with strong dosimetric focus. Informations at workers are dispensed about every risks and every kinds of risks: ionising radiation health effects, ionising radiation and pregnancy, high exposition, chemical risks, work at heat, asbestos. All data are conserved 50 years after the exposure These data

  14. Analytical admittance characterization of high mobility channel

    Mammeri, A. M.; Mahi, F. Z., E-mail: fati-zo-mahi2002@yahoo.fr [Institute of Science and Technology, University of Bechar (Algeria); Varani, L. [Institute of Electronics of the South (IES - CNRS UMR 5214), University of Montpellier (France)

    2015-03-30

    In this contribution, we investigate the small-signal admittance of the high electron mobility transistors field-effect channels under a continuation branching of the current between channel and gate by using an analytical model. The analytical approach takes into account the linearization of the 2D Poisson equation and the drift current along the channel. The analytical equations discuss the frequency dependence of the admittance at source and drain terminals on the geometrical transistor parameters.

  15. News Analytics for Financial Decision Support

    V. Milea (Viorel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis PhD thesis contributes to the newly emerged, growing body of scientific work on the use of News Analytics in Finance. Regarded as the next significant development in Automated Trading, News Analytics extends trading algorithms to incorporate information extracted from textual

  16. News analytics for financial decision support

    Milea, D.V.

    2013-01-01

    This PhD thesis contributes to the newly emerged, growing body of scientific work on the use of News Analytics in Finance. Regarded as the next significant development in Automated Trading, News Analytics extends trading algorithms to incorporate information extracted from textual messages, by

  17. Let's Talk... Analytics

    Oblinger, Diana G.

    2012-01-01

    Talk about analytics seems to be everywhere. Everyone is talking about analytics. Yet even with all the talk, many in higher education have questions about--and objections to--using analytics in colleges and universities. In this article, the author explores the use of analytics in, and all around, higher education. (Contains 1 note.)

  18. Analytics for Education

    MacNeill, Sheila; Campbell, Lorna M.; Hawksey, Martin

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the development and use of analytics in the context of education. Using Buckingham Shum's three levels of analytics, the authors present a critical analysis of current developments in the domain of learning analytics, and contrast the potential value of analytics research and development with real world…

  19. Analytical chemistry instrumentation

    Laing, W.R.

    1986-01-01

    In nine sections, 48 chapters cover 1) analytical chemistry and the environment 2) environmental radiochemistry 3) automated instrumentation 4) advances in analytical mass spectrometry 5) fourier transform spectroscopy 6) analytical chemistry of plutonium 7) nuclear analytical chemistry 8) chemometrics and 9) nuclear fuel technology

  20. Web-based system for assessing risk factors for falls in community-dwelling elderly people using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Pecchia, Leandro; Bath, Peter A.; Pendleton, Neil; Bracale, Marcello

    2010-01-01

    Falls occur frequently among older people and represent the most common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life. Preventing falls is an important way to reduce injuries, hospitalizations, and injury-related morbidity and mortality among older people. The research literature has identified hundreds of risk factors for falls among elderly people. Prioritizing risk factors for falls is useful for designing effective and efficacious prevention programs.\\ud The aim of this st...

  1. An analytical approach to the assessment of transuranics transmutation

    Piera, M.; Sanz, J.; Perlado, M.; Minguez, E.; Martinez-Val, J.M.

    1999-01-01

    An analytical study of Pu isotopes burnup in different transmutator prototypes is presented in this paper. Each prototype has been identified by a set of averaged cross sections, i.e., they are characterized by the neutron spectrum. Three types of systems have been considered: a fast spectrum reactor, which can be associated to molten lead systems; a fully thermalized reactor; and an epithermal reactor with a strong contribution to resonance reactions. The study has been focused on the burnup of Pu-239, Pu-240 and Pu-241 because they account (directly or indirectly) for the highest contribution to long-term radiotoxicity, as already pointed out. Pu-239 also conveys significant concerns on long-term proliferation risks. Therefore, elimination of these nuclei is the most important priority in the framework of reducing the nuclear waste risk in the long-term scenario. (author)

  2. Melanoma survivors at high risk of developing new primary disease: a qualitative examination of the factors that contribute to patient satisfaction with clinical care.

    McLoone, J K; Watts, K J; Menzies, S W; Barlow-Stewart, K; Mann, G J; Kasparian, N A

    2013-09-01

    Providing ongoing clinical care that adequately addresses patients' medical, psychosocial and information needs is challenging, particularly for patient groups at increased risk of developing life-threatening disease such as malignant melanoma. This study examined a model of clinical care developed by the High Risk Clinic (HRC) of the Sydney Melanoma Diagnostic Centre in relation to patient satisfaction. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted and analyzed using the framework of Miles and Huberman, and themes were organized using the qualitative software package, QSR NVivo8. Twenty HRC patients participated in the study (nine men, 11 women; mean age 57.6 years, age range 34-74 years; response rate 91%). Satisfaction with clinical care at the HRC was high. Factors contributing to patient satisfaction included: rapid and regular access to physicians who were perceived by participants as experts, the development of confidence and trust in one's treating doctor, and a sense of being cared about and understood by one's healthcare team. Although one-third of the participants reported some inconveniences in attending the clinic, these were viewed as minor difficulties and not significant barriers to care. Formal psychological support was not sought or expected by participants, although many expressed long-standing melanoma-related fears and concerns. Accessible, expert medical attention, delivered in a patient-centered manner was integral to melanoma survivors' satisfaction with clinical management. Appropriate referrals to psychological support may further increase satisfaction with clinical care. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Methodological practicalities in analytical generalization

    Halkier, Bente

    2011-01-01

    generalization. Theoretically, the argumentation in the article is based on practice theory. The main part of the article describes three different examples of ways of generalizing on the basis of the same qualitative data material. There is a particular focus on describing the methodological strategies......In this article, I argue that the existing literature on qualitative methodologies tend to discuss analytical generalization at a relatively abstract and general theoretical level. It is, however, not particularly straightforward to “translate” such abstract epistemological principles into more...... operative methodological strategies for producing analytical generalizations in research practices. Thus, the aim of the article is to contribute to the discussions among qualitatively working researchers about generalizing by way of exemplifying some of the methodological practicalities in analytical...

  4. Future analytical provision - Relocation of Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Laboratory

    Newell, B.

    2015-01-01

    Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services provide an essential view on the environmental, safety, process and high hazard risk reduction performances by analysis of samples. It is the largest and most complex analytical services laboratory in Europe, with 150 laboratories (55 operational) and 350 staff (including 180 analysts). Sellafield Ltd Analytical Services Main Laboratory is in need of replacement. This is due to the age of the facility and changes to work streams. This relocation is an opportunity to -) design and commission bespoke MA (Medium-Active) cells, -) modify HA (High-Active) cell design to facilitate an in-cell laboratory, -) develop non-destructive techniques, -) open light building for better worker morale. The option chosen was to move the activities to the NNL Central laboratory (NNLCL) that is based at Sellafield and is the UK's flagship nuclear research and development facility. This poster gives a time schedule

  5. Identification of a novel CHEK2 variant and assessment of its contribution to the risk of breast cancer in French Canadian women.

    Novak, David J; Chen, Long Qi; Ghadirian, Parviz; Hamel, Nancy; Zhang, Phil; Rossiny, Vanessa; Cardinal, Guy; Robidoux, André; Tonin, Patricia N; Rousseau, Francois; Narod, Steven A; Foulkes, William D

    2008-08-15

    BRCA1 and BRCA2 account for the majority of the known familial breast cancer risk, however, the impact of other cancer susceptibility genes largely remains to be elucidated. Checkpoint Kinase 2 (CHEK2) is an important signal transducer of cellular responses to DNA damage, whose defects have been associated with an increase in breast cancer risk. Previous studies have identified low penetrance CHEK2 alleles such as 1100delC and I157T, as well as variants such as S428F in the Ashkenazi Jewish population and IVS2 + 1G>A in the Polish population. No founder allele has been specifically identified in the French Canadian population. The 14 coding exons of CHEK2 were fully sequenced for variant alleles in a panel of 25 affected French Canadian women and 25 healthy controls. Two variants were identified of which one novel variant was further screened for in an additional panel of 667 breast cancer patients and 6548 healthy controls. Additional genotyping was conducted using allele specific PCR and a restriction digest assay. Significance of amino acid substitutions were deduced by employing comparative analysis techniques. Two variants were identified: the previously reported silent substitution 252A>G (E84E) and the novel missense variant, 1217G>A (R406H). No significant difference in allele distribution between French Canadian women with breast cancer and healthy controls was observed (3/692, 0.43% vs. 22/6573, 0.33%, respectively, P = 0.73). The novel CHEK2 missense variant identified in this study, R406H, is unlikely to contribute to breast cancer risk in French Canadian women.

  6. Identification of a novel CHEK2 variant and assessment of its contribution to the risk of breast cancer in French Canadian women

    Cardinal Guy

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background BRCA1 and BRCA2 account for the majority of the known familial breast cancer risk, however, the impact of other cancer susceptibility genes largely remains to be elucidated. Checkpoint Kinase 2 (CHEK2 is an important signal transducer of cellular responses to DNA damage, whose defects have been associated with an increase in breast cancer risk. Previous studies have identified low penetrance CHEK2 alleles such as 1100delC and I157T, as well as variants such as S428F in the Ashkenazi Jewish population and IVS2 + 1G>A in the Polish population. No founder allele has been specifically identified in the French Canadian population. Methods The 14 coding exons of CHEK2 were fully sequenced for variant alleles in a panel of 25 affected French Canadian women and 25 healthy controls. Two variants were identified of which one novel variant was further screened for in an additional panel of 667 breast cancer patients and 6548 healthy controls. Additional genotyping was conducted using allele specific PCR and a restriction digest assay. Significance of amino acid substitutions were deduced by employing comparative analysis techniques. Results Two variants were identified: the previously reported silent substitution 252A>G (E84E and the novel missense variant, 1217G>A (R406H. No significant difference in allele distribution between French Canadian women with breast cancer and healthy controls was observed (3/692, 0.43% vs. 22/6573, 0.33%, respectively, P = 0.73. Conclusion The novel CHEK2 missense variant identified in this study, R406H, is unlikely to contribute to breast cancer risk in French Canadian women.

  7. Understanding the relative contributions of direct environmental effects and passive genotype-environment correlations in the association between familial risk factors and child disruptive behavior disorders.

    Bornovalova, M A; Cummings, J R; Hunt, E; Blazei, R; Malone, S; Iacono, W G

    2014-03-01

    Previous work reports an association between familial risk factors stemming from parental characteristics and offspring disruptive behavior disorders (DBDs). This association may reflect (a) the direct effects of familial environment and (b) a passive gene-environment correlation (r(GE)), wherein the parents provide both the genes and the environment. The current study examined the contributions of direct environmental influences and passive r(GE) by comparing the effects of familial risk factors on child DBDs in genetically related (biological) and non-related (adoptive) families. Participants were 402 adoptive and 204 biological families. Familial environment was defined as maternal and paternal maladaptive parenting and antisociality, marital conflict and divorce; offspring DBDs included attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder (CD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD). Mixed-level regressions estimated the main effects of familial environment, adoption status and the familial environment by adoption status interaction term, which tested for the presence of passive r(GE). There was a main effect of maternal and paternal maladaptive parenting and marital discord on child DBDs, indicating a direct environmental effect. There was no direct environmental effect of maternal or paternal antisociality, but maternal and paternal antisociality had stronger associations with child DBDs in biological families than adoptive families, indicating the presence of a passive r(GE). Many familial risk factors affected children equally across genetically related and non-related families, providing evidence for direct environmental effects. The relationship of parental antisociality and offspring DBDs was best explained by a passive r(GE), where a general vulnerability toward externalizing psychopathology is passed down by the parents to the children.

  8. Pericardial and thoracic peri-aortic adipose tissues contribute to systemic inflammation and calcified coronary atherosclerosis independent of body fat composition, anthropometric measures and traditional cardiovascular risks

    Yun, Chun-Ho; Lin, Tin-Yu; Wu, Yih-Jer; Liu, Chuan-Chuan; Kuo, Jen-Yuan; Yeh, Hung-I.; Yang, Fei-Shih; Chen, Su-Chiu; Hou, Charles Jia-Yin; Bezerra, Hiram G.; Hung, Chung-Lieh; Cury, Ricardo C.

    2012-01-01

    cardiovascular risks and anthropometric measures, though only pericardial fat exerted independent role in coronary calcium deposit. Our data suggested that visceral adipose tissue may thus contribute to systemic inflammation and play an independent role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis.

  9. Risk exposures for human ornithosis in a poultry processing plant modified by use of personal protective equipment: an analytical outbreak study.

    Williams, C J; Sillis, M; Fearne, V; Pezzoli, L; Beasley, G; Bracebridge, S; Reacher, M; Nair, P

    2013-09-01

    Ornithosis outbreaks in poultry processing plants are well-described, but evidence for preventive measures is currently lacking. This study describes a case-control study into an outbreak of ornithosis at a poultry processing plant in the East of England, identified following three employees being admitted to hospital. Workers at the affected plant were recruited via their employer, with exposures assessed using a self-completed questionnaire. Cases were ascertained using serological methods or direct antigen detection in sputum. 63/225 (28%) staff participated, with 10% of participants showing evidence of recent infection. Exposure to the killing/defeathering and automated evisceration areas, and contact with viscera or blood were the main risk factors for infection. Personal protective equipment (goggles and FFP3 masks) reduced the effect of exposure to risk areas and to self-contamination with potentially infectious material. Our study provides some evidence of effectiveness for respiratory protective equipment in poultry processing plants where there is a known and current risk of ornithosis. Further studies are required to confirm this tentative finding, but in the meantime respiratory protective equipment is recommended as a precautionary measure in plants where outbreaks of ornithosis occur.

  10. Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group.

    Liyanage, H; de Lusignan, S; Liaw, S-T; Kuziemsky, C E; Mold, F; Krause, P; Fleming, D; Jones, S

    2014-08-15

    Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

  11. Source-oriented risk assessment of inhalation exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and contributions of non-priority isomers in urban Nanjing, a megacity located in Yangtze River Delta, China.

    Zhuo, Shaojie; Shen, Guofeng; Zhu, Ying; Du, Wei; Pan, Xuelian; Li, Tongchao; Han, Yang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Junfeng; Cheng, Hefa; Xing, Baoshan; Tao, Shu

    2017-05-01

    Sixteen U.S. EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and eleven non-priority isomers including some dibenzopyrenes were analyzed to evaluate health risk attributable to inhalation exposure to ambient PAHs and contributions of the non-priority PAHs in a megacity Nanjing, east China. The annual average mass concentration of the total 16 EPA priority PAHs in air was 51.1 ± 29.8 ng/m 3 , comprising up to 93% of the mass concentration of all 27 PAHs, however, the estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) due to inhalation exposure would be underestimated by 63% on average if only accounting the 16 EPA priority PAHs. The risk would be underestimated by 13% if only particulate PAHs were considered, though gaseous PAHs made up to about 70% of the total mass concentration. During the last fifteen years, ambient Benzo[a]pyrene decreased significantly in the city which was consistent with the declining trend of PAHs emissions. Source contributions to the estimated ILCR were much different from the contributions for the total mass concentration, calling for the introduce of important source-oriented risk assessments. Emissions from gasoline vehicles contributed to 12% of the total mass concentration of 27 PAHs analyzed, but regarding relative contributions to the overall health risk, gasoline vehicle emissions contributed 45% of the calculated ILCR. Dibenzopyrenes were a group of non-priority isomers largely contributing to the calculated ILCR, and vehicle emissions were probably important sources of these high molecular weight isomers. Ambient dibenzo[a,l]pyrene positively correlated with the priority PAH Benzo[g,h,i]perylene. The study indicates that inclusion of non-priority PAHs could be valuable for both PAH source apportionment and health risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Analyticity without Differentiability

    Kirillova, Evgenia; Spindler, Karlheinz

    2008-01-01

    In this article we derive all salient properties of analytic functions, including the analytic version of the inverse function theorem, using only the most elementary convergence properties of series. Not even the notion of differentiability is required to do so. Instead, analytical arguments are replaced by combinatorial arguments exhibiting…

  13. Understanding Business Analytics

    2015-01-05

    analytics have been used in organizations for a variety of reasons for quite some time; ranging from the simple (generating and understanding business analytics...process. understanding business analytics 3 How well these two components are orchestrated will determine the level of success an organization has in

  14. Using the community pharmacy to identify patients at risk of poor asthma control and factors which contribute to this poor control.

    Armour, Carol L; Lemay, Kate; Saini, Bandana; Reddel, Helen K; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia Z; Smith, Lorraine D; Burton, Deborah; Song, Yun Ju Christine; Alles, Marie Chehani; Stewart, Kay; Emmerton, Lynne; Krass, Ines

    2011-11-01

    BMQ) and were more likely to have poor control. Community pharmacists were able to identify patients with asthma at risk of suboptimal control, and factors that contributed to this were elicited. This poorly controlled group that was identified may not be visible or accessible to other health-care professionals. There is an opportunity within pharmacies to target poorly controlled asthma and provide timely and tailored interventions.

  15. Increased fibulin-1 plasma levels in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients: possible contribution to the link between PCOS and cardiovascular risk.

    Scarinci, E; Tropea, A; Russo, G; Notaristefano, G; Messana, C; Alesiani, O; Fabozzi, S M; Lanzone, A; Apa, R

    2018-04-21

    To investigate a possible relation between fibulin-1 plasma levels and PCOS. ELISA quantitative determination of human fibulin-1. 50 women with PCOS and 40 control patients who attended the Unit of Human Reproductive Pathophysiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, were enrolled. Ultrasonographic pelvic examinations, hormonal profile assays, oral tolerance test OGTT, lipid profile and ELISA quantitative determination of human fibulin-1 were performed. Fibulin-1 levels were found to be statistically significantly higher in PCOS patients than in matched control women. No statistically significant positive correlation was found between fibulin-1 and AUCi, HOMA-IR, total cholesterol, LDL, AMH, androstenedione and FAI, whereas a statistically significant positive correlation was found between fibulin-1 and 17OHP (p = 0.016) in the PCOS group. However, multivariable linear regression analysis showed that 17 OH P did not independently predict fibulin-1 levels (p = 0.089). Our data could contribute to explain the hypothesized increased cardiovascular risk and vascular damage in patients with PCOS. A better understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in cardiometabolic disorders associated with PCOS is mandatory to identify new therapeutic strategies to eventually prevent the progression of cardiovascular diseases in these patients.

  16. Contribution to Alzheimer's disease risk of rare variants in TREM2, SORL1, and ABCA7 in 1779 cases and 1273 controls.

    Bellenguez, Céline; Charbonnier, Camille; Grenier-Boley, Benjamin; Quenez, Olivier; Le Guennec, Kilan; Nicolas, Gaël; Chauhan, Ganesh; Wallon, David; Rousseau, Stéphane; Richard, Anne Claire; Boland, Anne; Bourque, Guillaume; Munter, Hans Markus; Olaso, Robert; Meyer, Vincent; Rollin-Sillaire, Adeline; Pasquier, Florence; Letenneur, Luc; Redon, Richard; Dartigues, Jean-François; Tzourio, Christophe; Frebourg, Thierry; Lathrop, Mark; Deleuze, Jean-François; Hannequin, Didier; Genin, Emmanuelle; Amouyel, Philippe; Debette, Stéphanie; Lambert, Jean-Charles; Campion, Dominique

    2017-11-01

    We performed whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing in 927 late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) cases, 852 early-onset AD (EOAD) cases, and 1273 controls from France. We assessed the evidence for gene-based association of rare variants with AD in 6 genes for which an association with such variants was previously claimed. When aggregating protein-truncating and missense-predicted damaging variants, we found exome-wide significant association between EOAD risk and rare variants in SORL1, TREM2, and ABCA7. No exome-wide significant signal was obtained in the LOAD sample, and significance of the order of 10 -6 was observed in the whole AD group for TREM2. Our study confirms previous gene-level results for TREM2, SORL1, and ABCA7 and provides a clearer insight into the classes of rare variants involved. Despite different effect sizes and varying cumulative minor allele frequencies, the rare protein-truncating and missense-predicted damaging variants in TREM2, SORL1, and ABCA7 contribute similarly to the heritability of EOAD and explain between 1.1% and 1.5% of EOAD heritability each, compared with 9.12% for APOE ε4. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Comparison of clinical and analytical performance of the Abbott Realtime High Risk HPV test to the performance of hybrid capture 2 in population-based cervical cancer screening.

    Poljak, Mario; Ostrbenk, Anja; Seme, Katja; Ucakar, Veronika; Hillemanns, Peter; Bokal, Eda Vrtacnik; Jancar, Nina; Klavs, Irena

    2011-05-01

    The clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV (human papillomavirus) test (RealTime) and that of the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (hc2) were prospectively compared in the population-based cervical cancer screening setting. In women >30 years old (n = 3,129), the clinical sensitivity of RealTime for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 (CIN2) or worse (38 cases) and its clinical specificity for lesions of less than CIN2 (3,091 controls) were 100% and 93.3%, respectively, and those of hc2 were 97.4% and 91.8%, respectively. A noninferiority score test showed that the clinical specificity (P laboratories. RealTime can be considered to be a reliable and robust HPV assay clinically comparable to hc2 for the detection of CIN2+ lesions in a population-based cervical cancer screening setting.

  18. Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry

    Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

    2015-01-01

    Background Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. Objective The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. Methods A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Results Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. Conclusion In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association. PMID:26422698

  19. Risk

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  20. Comparing risk factors of HIV among hijra sex workers in Larkana and other cities of Pakistan: an analytical cross sectional study

    Altaf Arshad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2005, Pakistan was first labeled as a country with concentrated epidemic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV. This was revealed through second generation surveillance conducted by HIV/AIDS Surveillance Project (HASP. While injection drug users (IDUs were driving the epidemic, subsequent surveys showed that Hijra (transgender sex workers (HSWs were emerging as the second most vulnerable group with an average national prevalence of 6.4%. An exceptionally high prevalence (27.6% was found in Larkana, which is a small town on the right bank of river Indus near the ruins of Mohenjo-Daro in the province of Sindh. This paper presents the risk factors associated with high prevalence of HIV among HSWs in Larkana as compared to other cities of the country. Methods Data were extracted for secondary analysis from 2008 Integrated behavioral and biological survey (IBBS to compare HSWs living in Larkana with those living in other cities including Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh; Lahore and Faisalabad in Punjab; and Peshawar in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. After descriptive analysis, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors. P value of 0.25 or less was used to include factors in multivariate analysis. Results We compared 199 HSWs from Larkana with 420 HSWs from other cities. The average age of HSWs in Larkana was 26.42 (±5.4 years. Majority were Sindhi speaking (80%, uneducated (68% and unmarried (97%. In univariate analysis, factors associated with higher prevalence of HIV in Larkana included younger age i.e. 20–24 years (OR: 5.8, CI: 2.809–12.15, being unmarried (OR: 2.4, CI: 1.0–5.7, sex work as the only mode of income (OR: 5.5, CI: 3.70–8.2 and longer duration of being involved in sex work 5–10 years (OR: 3.3, CI: 1.7–6.12. In multivariate logistic regression the HSWs from Larkana were more likely to lack knowledge regarding preventive measures against HIV (OR 11.9, CI: 3.4–41.08 and

  1. Contribution of ARLTS1 Cys148Arg (T442C variant with prostate cancer risk and ARLTS1 function in prostate cancer cells.

    Sanna Siltanen

    Full Text Available ARLTS1 is a recently characterized tumor suppressor gene at 13q14.3, a region frequently deleted in both sporadic and hereditary prostate cancer (PCa. ARLTS1 variants, especially Cys148Arg (T442C, increase susceptibility to different cancers, including PCa. In this study the role of Cys148Arg substitution was investigated as a risk factor for PCa using both genetic and functional analysis. Cys148Arg genotypes and expression of the ARLTS1 were explored in a large set of familial and unselected PCa cases, clinical tumor samples, xenografts, prostate cancer cell lines and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH samples. The frequency of the variant genotype CC was significantly higher in familial (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.08-2.56, P = 0.019 and unselected patients (OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.18-1.97, P = 0.001 and the overall risk was increased (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.20-1.98, P = 0.0007. Additional analysis with clinicopathological data revealed an association with an aggressive disease (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.05-∞, P = 0.02. The CC genotype of the Cys148Arg variant was also contributing to the lowered ARLTS1 expression status in lymphoblastoid cells from familial patients. In addition significantly lowered ARLTS1 expression was observed in clinical tumor samples compared to BPH samples (P = 0.01. The ARLTS1 co-expression signature based on previously published microarray data was generated from 1587 cancer samples confirming the low expression of ARLTS1 in PCa and showed that ARLTS1 expression was strongly associated with immune processes. This study provides strong confirmation of the important role of ARLTS1 Cys148Arg variant as a contributor in PCa predisposition and a potential marker for aggressive disease outcome.

  2. Analytical precision of the Urolizer for the determination of the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) for calcium oxalate urolithiasis and evaluation of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI.

    Berg, Wolfgang; Bechler, Robin; Laube, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    Since its first publication in 2000, the BONN-Risk-Index (BRI) has been successfully used to determine the calcium oxalate (CaOx) crystallization risk from urine samples. To date, a BRI-measuring device, the "Urolizer", has been developed, operating automatically and requiring only a minimum of preparation. Two major objectives were pursued: determination of Urolizer precision, and determination of the influence of 24-h urine storage at moderate temperatures on BRI. 24-h urine samples from 52 CaOx stone-formers were collected. A total of 37 urine samples were used for the investigation of Urolizer precision by performing six independent BRI determinations in series. In total, 30 samples were taken for additional investigation of urine storability. Each sample was measured thrice: directly after collection, after 24-h storage at T=21 degrees C, and after 24-h cooling at T=4 degrees C. Outcomes were statistically tested for identity with regard to the immediately obtained results. Repeat measurements for evaluation of Urolizer precision revealed statistical identity of data (p-0.05). 24-h storage of urine at both tested temperatures did not significantly affect BRI (p-0.05). The pilot-run Urolizer shows high analytical reliability. The innovative analysis device may be especially suited for urologists specializing in urolithiasis treatment. The possibility for urine storage at moderate temperatures without loss of analysis quality further demonstrates the applicability of the BRI method.

  3. Analytic nuclear scattering theories

    Di Marzio, F.; University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC

    1999-01-01

    A wide range of nuclear reactions are examined in an analytical version of the usual distorted wave Born approximation. This new approach provides either semi analytic or fully analytic descriptions of the nuclear scattering processes. The resulting computational simplifications, when used within the limits of validity, allow very detailed tests of both nuclear interaction models as well as large basis models of nuclear structure to be performed

  4. Risk

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  5. Analytical Electron Microscope

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Titan 80-300 is a transmission electron microscope (TEM) equipped with spectroscopic detectors to allow chemical, elemental, and other analytical measurements to...

  6. Public Health Risks of Enterobacterial Isolates Producing Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamases or AmpC β-Lactamases in Food and Food-Producing Animals: An EU Perspective of Epidemiology, Analytical Methods, Risk Factors, and Control Options

    Liebana, Ernesto; Carattoli, Alessandra; Coque, Teresa M.

    2013-01-01

    The blaESBL and blaAmpC genes are spread by plasmid-mediated integrons, insertion sequences, and transposons, some of which are homologous in food animals and humans. Cephalosporin usage in animal production is an important risk factor; restricting such use would be an effective control option....

  7. The Analytical Hierarchy Process

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    2007-01-01

    The technical note gathers the theory behind the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and present its advantages and disadvantages in practical use.......The technical note gathers the theory behind the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and present its advantages and disadvantages in practical use....

  8. Signals: Applying Academic Analytics

    Arnold, Kimberly E.

    2010-01-01

    Academic analytics helps address the public's desire for institutional accountability with regard to student success, given the widespread concern over the cost of higher education and the difficult economic and budgetary conditions prevailing worldwide. Purdue University's Signals project applies the principles of analytics widely used in…

  9. Analytic Moufang-transformations

    Paal, Eh.N.

    1988-01-01

    The paper is aimed to be an introduction to the concept of an analytic birepresentation of an analytic Moufang loop. To describe the deviation of (S,T) from associativity, the associators (S,T) are defined and certain constraints for them, called the minimality conditions of (S,T) are established

  10. Quine's "Strictly Vegetarian" Analyticity

    Decock, L.B.

    2017-01-01

    I analyze Quine’s later writings on analyticity from a linguistic point of view. In Word and Object Quine made room for a “strictly vegetarian” notion of analyticity. In later years, he developed this notion into two more precise notions, which I have coined “stimulus analyticity” and “behaviorist

  11. Learning analytics dashboard applications

    Verbert, K.; Duval, E.; Klerkx, J.; Govaerts, S.; Santos, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    This article introduces learning analytics dashboards that visualize learning traces for learners and teachers. We present a conceptual framework that helps to analyze learning analytics applications for these kinds of users. We then present our own work in this area and compare with 15 related

  12. Learning Analytics Considered Harmful

    Dringus, Laurie P.

    2012-01-01

    This essay is written to present a prospective stance on how learning analytics, as a core evaluative approach, must help instructors uncover the important trends and evidence of quality learner data in the online course. A critique is presented of strategic and tactical issues of learning analytics. The approach to the critique is taken through…

  13. Analytical mass spectrometry

    1990-01-01

    This 43rd Annual Summer Symposium on Analytical Chemistry was held July 24--27, 1990 at Oak Ridge, TN and contained sessions on the following topics: Fundamentals of Analytical Mass Spectrometry (MS), MS in the National Laboratories, Lasers and Fourier Transform Methods, Future of MS, New Ionization and LC/MS Methods, and an extra session. (WET)

  14. Analytical mass spectrometry. Abstracts

    1990-12-31

    This 43rd Annual Summer Symposium on Analytical Chemistry was held July 24--27, 1990 at Oak Ridge, TN and contained sessions on the following topics: Fundamentals of Analytical Mass Spectrometry (MS), MS in the National Laboratories, Lasers and Fourier Transform Methods, Future of MS, New Ionization and LC/MS Methods, and an extra session. (WET)

  15. Quo vadis, analytical chemistry?

    Valcárcel, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an open, personal, fresh approach to the future of Analytical Chemistry in the context of the deep changes Science and Technology are anticipated to experience. Its main aim is to challenge young analytical chemists because the future of our scientific discipline is in their hands. A description of not completely accurate overall conceptions of our discipline, both past and present, to be avoided is followed by a flexible, integral definition of Analytical Chemistry and its cornerstones (viz., aims and objectives, quality trade-offs, the third basic analytical reference, the information hierarchy, social responsibility, independent research, transfer of knowledge and technology, interfaces to other scientific-technical disciplines, and well-oriented education). Obsolete paradigms, and more accurate general and specific that can be expected to provide the framework for our discipline in the coming years are described. Finally, the three possible responses of analytical chemists to the proposed changes in our discipline are discussed.

  16. The contribution of ineffective urban planning practices to disaster and disaster risks accumulation in urban areas: the case of former Kunduchi quarry site in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    Benedict F. Malele

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the link between urban planning practices and disaster risks. The study used the former Kunduchi Quarry Site within the City of Dar es Salaam to demonstrate how laxity in enforcing the laid down planning rules, regulations and procedures facilitates the accumulation and occurrence of disaster risks and disasters in urban areas. This undermines one of the central roles of urban planning, which is to protect the lives of people from disaster risks and disasters. In exploring this, the study specifically focused on understanding the rules, regulations and procedures of planning in Tanzania; the extent to which they are followed and, where they are not followed, their implications for disaster risks and disasters; the coping initiatives adopted by local communities to reduce risks and their level of success or failure; and finally the drawing of lessons and recommendations for disaster risk reduction in urban areas. Strongly emerging from this study is the finding that although planning rules and regulations do exist, they are not enforced. As a result urban communities suffer from disaster risks and disasters caused by unregulated activities. The study analyzed the coping initiatives that urban communities apply to reduce disaster risks in their areas. It noted that, while a range of “coping” responses could be observed, these are not lasting solutions to the disaster risks being faced. Sustainable solutions seem to be known by the local community but they are not adopted for fear of compromising or undermining their existing livelihood strategies.

  17. Analytical contributions to the characterization and determination of nanoparticles

    López-Lorente, A.I.

    2014-01-01

    Actualmente nos encontramos en plena expansión de la Nanociencia y Nanotecnología. Millones de toneladas de nanopartículas (NPs) se producen anualmente con fines comerciales o como subproductos de la actividad humana. La creciente producción y el uso de nanomateriales conducirán a su acumulación, generando importantes implicaciones negativas para la salud humana y el medio ambiente [1]. Uno de los roles de la Química Analítica en este contexto es el análisis y caracterización de dichas na...

  18. Contributions to the analytical control of polyphenolic mixture

    Barrera Pinero, R

    1961-07-01

    Separation and identification experiences of polyphenylic mixtures are described. the following technique are used: vacuum fractional distillation, vacuum sublimation and chromatography on acetylated paper. Also new coloured reactions of polyphenyls with aldehyde chlorides and their spectrophotometric application are studied. (Author) 17 refs.

  19. A contribution towards an analytic theory of violence.

    Mizen, Richard

    2003-06-01

    This paper considers some of the clinical and theoretical problems contingent upon the imprecision and lack of clarity with which the word and concept 'violence' is used. A definition of violence is proposed, which separates the concept of violence from the related concept of aggression and sees the former as a particular form of the latter. This definition also proposes that violence must always have a psychological component aspect. It is contended that clarity is important clinically so that analysts can distinguish psychologically destructive from psychologically creative elements in their patients, in their own psychological functioning and in the countertransference. The phenomenon of violence is considered in the light of Fordham's model of development, in particular that violence may be viewed as a consequence of a failure to integrate normal, aggressive aspects of the personality. Violence is seen as uncontained, split-off aggression, subjected to psychological projection. It is proposed that a particular quality of the experience that is being projected is an uncontained sense of violation. The notion of 'mindless violence' is considered.

  20. Contributions to the analytical control of polyphenylic mixture

    Barrera Pinero, R.

    1961-01-01

    Separation and identification experiences of polyphenylic mixtures are described. the following technique are used: vacuum fractional distillation, vacuum sublimation and chromatography on acetylated paper. Also new coloured reactions of polyphenyls with aldehyde chlorides and their spectrophotometric application are studied. (Author) 17 refs

  1. Ecological risk assessment of hydropower dam construction based on ecological network analysis

    Chen, Shaoqing; Fath, Brian D.; Chen, Bin

    2010-01-01

    Dam construction is regarded as one of the major factors contributing to significant modifications of the river ecosystems, and the ecological risk (ER) assessment of dam construction has received growing attention in recent years. In the present study, we explored the potential ecological risk caused by dam project based on the general principles of the ecological risk assessment. Ecological network analysis was proposed as the usable analytic method for the implement of ecological risk asse...

  2. Contributions: SAGE

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Contributions: SAGE. Space Alternating Generalized Expectation (SAGE) Maximization algorithm provides an iterative approach to parameter estimation when direct maximization of the likelihood function may be infeasible. Complexity is less in those applications ...

  3. Various Contributions

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Various Contributions. Developed an Off –Diagonal MIMO Canceller to mitigate Upstream Crosstalk in VDSL. Developed a low complexity, Expectation Maximization based iterative Crosstalk cancellation. Developed an optimal way of computational complexity ...

  4. Original contributions

    hefere

    Original contributions ... Results suggest that there is a significant positive ... psychological abuse, including economic abuse, intimidation, harassment, stalking, damage ... or maintaining the structure and function of the African home (Alio et al., 2011; Jewkes,. Levin ... Revictimisation occurs due to emotional violence and.

  5. Contributions of Child Sexual Abuse, Self-Blame, Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms, and Alcohol Use to Women's Risk for Forcible and Substance-Facilitated Sexual Assault.

    Mokma, Taylor R; Eshelman, Lee R; Messman-Moore, Terri L

    2016-01-01

    Child sexual abuse and adult sexual assault have been linked to increased self-blame, posttraumatic stress symptoms, and alcohol use. The current study aims to examine (a) whether these constructs explain women's risk for later adult sexual assault and revictimization, (b) whether such factors differentially confer risk for specific types of adult sexual assault (i.e., substance-facilitated and forcible), and (c) if self-blame confers risk indirectly through other risk factors. Multiple types of self-blame, posttraumatic stress, and alcohol use were examined among 929 female college students as serial mediators of the relationship between child sexual abuse and adult sexual assault and as risk factors for sexual revictimization among child sexual abuse survivors. In the model predicting risk for substance-facilitated adult sexual assault, child sexual abuse indirectly predicted greater risk for substance-facilitated adult sexual assault mediated through two separate paths: global blame-to-posttraumatic-stress and global blame-to-alcohol use. In the model predicting risk for forcible adult sexual assault, child sexual abuse directly predicted greater risk for forcible adult sexual assault, and this relation was mediated by the global blame-to-posttraumatic-stress path. Among child sexual abuse survivors, child sexual abuse specific characterological and behavioral self-blame directly predicted greater risk for forcible and substance-facilitated revictimization, but the pathways were not mediated by posttraumatic stress or alcohol use. Results emphasize the importance of assessing different types of self-blame in predicting posttraumatic stress symptoms as well as examining risk for sexual victimization and revictimization. Findings did not support hypotheses that increased posttraumatic stress would predict increased alcohol use but did indicate that heightened self-blame is consistently associated with heightened posttraumatic stress and that heightened global self

  6. The contribution of epidemiology

    Brandt, P. van den; Voorrips, L.; Hertz-Picciotto, I.; Shuker, D.; Boeing, H.; Speijers, G.; Guittard, C.; Kleiner, J.; Knowles, M.; Wolk, A.; Goldbohm, A.

    2002-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies directly contribute data on risk (or benefit) in humans as the investigated species, and in the full food intake range normally encountered by humans. This paper starts with introducing the epidemiologic approach, followed by a discussion of perceived differences between

  7. The contribution of parental alcohol use disorders and other psychiatric illness to the risk of alcohol use disorders in the offspring

    Sørensen, Holger J; Manzardo, Ann M; Knop, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    Few population-based studies have investigated associations between parental history of alcoholism and the risk of alcoholism in offspring. The aim was to investigate in a large cohort the risk of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in the offspring of parents with or without AUD and with or without...

  8. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1fk

    Nisa M Maruthur

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent

  9. Behavioural analytics: Beyond risk-based MFA

    Dlamini, Thandokuhle M

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ]. [16] Verizon, “2016 Data Breach Investigations Report: 89% of breaches had a financial or espionage motive”; http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/reports/rp_DBIR_2016_ Report_en_xg.pdf; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [17] S. Ragan, “Linkedin... data breach blamed for multiple secondary compromises”; CSO Online; http://www.csoonline.com/article/3086942/security/linkedin-data- breach-blamed-for-multiple-secondary-compromises.html; 2016, accessed [15 August 2016]. [18] E. Zolfagharifard and E...

  10. Google analytics integrations

    Waisberg, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    A roadmap for turning Google Analytics into a centralized marketing analysis platform With Google Analytics Integrations, expert author Daniel Waisberg shows you how to gain a more meaningful, complete view of customers that can drive growth opportunities. This in-depth guide shows not only how to use Google Analytics, but also how to turn this powerful data collection and analysis tool into a central marketing analysis platform for your company. Taking a hands-on approach, this resource explores the integration and analysis of a host of common data sources, including Google AdWords, AdSens

  11. An antenatal prediction model for adverse birth outcomes in an urban population: The contribution of medical and non-medical risks.

    Posthumus, A G; Birnie, E; van Veen, M J; Steegers, E A P; Bonsel, G J

    2016-07-01

    in the Netherlands the perinatal mortality rate is high compared to other European countries. Around eighty percent of perinatal mortality cases is preceded by being small for gestational age (SGA), preterm birth and/or having a low Apgar-score at 5 minutes after birth. Current risk detection in pregnancy focusses primarily on medical risks. However, non-medical risk factors may be relevant too. Both non-medical and medical risk factors are incorporated in the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction (R4U) scorecard. We investigated the associations between R4U risk factors and preterm birth, SGA and a low Apgar score. a prospective cohort study under routine practice conditions. six midwifery practices and two hospitals in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 836 pregnant women. the R4U scorecard was filled out at the booking visit. after birth, the follow-up data on pregnancy outcomes were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to fit models for the prediction of any adverse outcome (preterm birth, SGA and/or a low Apgar score), stratified for ethnicity and socio-economic status (SES). factors predicting any adverse outcome for Western women were smoking during the first trimester and over-the-counter medication. For non-Western women risk factors were teenage pregnancy, advanced maternal age and an obstetric history of SGA. Risk factors for high SES women were low family income, no daily intake of vegetables and a history of preterm birth. For low SES women risk factors appeared to be low family income, non-Western ethnicity, smoking during the first trimester and a history of SGA. the presence of both medical and non-medical risk factors early in pregnancy predict the occurrence of adverse outcomes at birth. Furthermore the risk profiles for adverse outcomes differed according to SES and ethnicity. to optimise effective risk selection, both medical and non-medical risk factors should be taken into account in midwifery and obstetric care at the booking visit

  12. Radionuclides in analytical chemistry

    Tousset, J.

    1984-01-01

    Applications of radionuclides in analytical chemistry are reviewed in this article: tracers, radioactive sources and activation analysis. Examples are given in all these fields and it is concluded that these methods should be used more widely [fr

  13. Mobility Data Analytics Center.

    2016-01-01

    Mobility Data Analytics Center aims at building a centralized data engine to efficiently manipulate : large-scale data for smart decision making. Integrating and learning the massive data are the key to : the data engine. The ultimate goal of underst...

  14. Analytical strategies for phosphoproteomics

    Thingholm, Tine E; Jensen, Ole N; Larsen, Martin R

    2009-01-01

    sensitive and specific strategies. Today, most phosphoproteomic studies are conducted by mass spectrometric strategies in combination with phospho-specific enrichment methods. This review presents an overview of different analytical strategies for the characterization of phosphoproteins. Emphasis...

  15. Carbon Impact Analytics - Designing low carbon indices based on Carbon Impact Analytics indicators

    2016-01-01

    Investors are increasingly exposed to carbon risks and now face the challenge of managing these risks and developing climate-resilient investment strategies. Carbon Impact Analytics (CIA), an innovative methodology for analyzing the full carbon impact of a portfolio or index, equips investors and asset managers with the tools necessary to reduce their climate-related risks but also to seize the opportunities offered by the ongoing energy transition. Investors, asset managers and other financial institutions may use CIA results to: - measure and manage risks, - optimize their contribution to the energy transition, - seize opportunities associated with climate change mitigation, - report on GHG emissions and savings (for regulatory purposes or voluntarily), - engage in dialogue with companies, - reallocate investment portfolios, - and build new low-carbon indices. In this report, Carbone 4 offers a detailed look into how CIA indicators can be used to either 1) reallocate an existing portfolio or index to achieve maximal carbon performance or 2) build new low carbon indices from the ground up, drawn from Carbone 4's ever-growing database of CIA-analyzed firms. Two main levers were used to optimize CIA output: 1. Sectorial reallocation: exclusion of fossil fuel-related sectors or insertion of low carbon pure players; 2. Intra-sectorial reallocation: best-in-class approach within a sector. Sectorial and intra-sectorial methods may be applied in conjunction with one another to maximize results. For example, a best-in-class + fossil fuel-free index may be constructed by first excluding the fossil fuel sector and then applying a CIA best-in-class approach to all remaining sectors. This report offers a detailed look into how CIA indicators can be used to rework portfolios or indices to maximize carbon performance or to build low carbon indices from the ground up. These methods are illustrated via two preliminary examples of indices designed by Carbone 4: the reallocated

  16. Encyclopedia of analytical surfaces

    Krivoshapko, S N

    2015-01-01

    This encyclopedia presents an all-embracing collection of analytical surface classes. It provides concise definitions  and description for more than 500 surfaces and categorizes them in 38 classes of analytical surfaces. All classes are cross references to the original literature in an excellent bibliography. The encyclopedia is of particular interest to structural and civil engineers and serves as valuable reference for mathematicians.

  17. Intermediate algebra & analytic geometry

    Gondin, William R

    1967-01-01

    Intermediate Algebra & Analytic Geometry Made Simple focuses on the principles, processes, calculations, and methodologies involved in intermediate algebra and analytic geometry. The publication first offers information on linear equations in two unknowns and variables, functions, and graphs. Discussions focus on graphic interpretations, explicit and implicit functions, first quadrant graphs, variables and functions, determinate and indeterminate systems, independent and dependent equations, and defective and redundant systems. The text then examines quadratic equations in one variable, system

  18. SRL online Analytical Development

    Jenkins, C.W.

    1991-01-01

    The Savannah River Site is operated by the Westinghouse Savannah River Co. for the Department of Energy to produce special nuclear materials for defense. R ampersand D support for site programs is provided by the Savannah River Laboratory, which I represent. The site is known primarily for its nuclear reactors, but actually three fourths of the efforts at the site are devoted to fuel/target fabrication, fuel/target reprocessing, and waste management. All of these operations rely heavily on chemical processes. The site is therefore a large chemical plant. There are then many potential applications for process analytical chemistry at SRS. The Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) has an Analytical Development Section of roughly 65 personnel that perform analyses for R ampersand D efforts at the lab, act as backup to the site Analytical Laboratories Department and develop analytical methods and instruments. I manage a subgroup of the Analytical Development Section called the Process Control ampersand Analyzer Development Group. The Prime mission of this group is to develop online/at-line analytical systems for site applications

  19. Interaction between β-hexachlorocyclohexane and ADIPOQ genotypes contributes to the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in East Chinese adults

    Li, Shushu; Wang, Xichen; Yang, Lu; Yao, Shen; Zhang, Ruyang; Xiao, Xue; Zhang, Zhan; Wang, Li; Xu, Qiujin; Wang, Shou-Lin

    2016-11-01

    Growing evidence links environmental exposure to hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) to the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and ADIPOQ that encodes adiponectin is considered as an important gene for T2DM. However, the role of ADIPOQ-HCH interaction on T2DM risk remains unclear. Thus, a paired case-control study was conducted in an East Chinese community. A total of 1446 subjects, including 723 cases and 723 controls matched on age, gender and residence, were enrolled, and 4 types of HCH isomers were measured in serum samples using GC-MS/MS. Additionally, 4 candidate ADIPOQ SNPs (rs182052, rs266729, rs6810075, and rs16861194) were genotyped by TaqMan assay, and plasma adiponectin was measured using ELISA. No associations between 4 SNPs and T2DM risk were found, but T2DM risk significantly increased with serum levels of β-HCH (P 2052 significantly increased T2DM risk (OR I-additive model = 2.20, OR I-recessive model = 2.13). Additionally, individuals carrying only rs182052 (A allele) with high levels of β-HCH had significant reduction in adiponectin levels (P = 0.016). These results indicate that the interaction between rs182052 and β-HCH might increase the risk of T2DM by jointly decreasing the adiponectin level and potentially trigger T2DM development.

  20. Analytical quality by design: a tool for regulatory flexibility and robust analytics.

    Peraman, Ramalingam; Bhadraya, Kalva; Padmanabha Reddy, Yiragamreddy

    2015-01-01

    Very recently, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a few new drug applications (NDA) with regulatory flexibility for quality by design (QbD) based analytical approach. The concept of QbD applied to analytical method development is known now as AQbD (analytical quality by design). It allows the analytical method for movement within method operable design region (MODR). Unlike current methods, analytical method developed using analytical quality by design (AQbD) approach reduces the number of out-of-trend (OOT) results and out-of-specification (OOS) results due to the robustness of the method within the region. It is a current trend among pharmaceutical industry to implement analytical quality by design (AQbD) in method development process as a part of risk management, pharmaceutical development, and pharmaceutical quality system (ICH Q10). Owing to the lack explanatory reviews, this paper has been communicated to discuss different views of analytical scientists about implementation of AQbD in pharmaceutical quality system and also to correlate with product quality by design and pharmaceutical analytical technology (PAT).

  1. The contribution of bank regulation and fair value accounting to procyclical leverage

    Amel-Zadeh; Barth, ME; Landsman, WR

    2017-01-01

    Our analytical description of how banks’ responses to asset price changes can result in procyclical leverage reveals that for banks with a binding regulatory leverage constraint, absent differences in regulatory risk weights across assets, procyclical leverage does not occur. For banks without a binding constraint, fair value and bank regulation both can contribute to procyclical leverage. Empirical findings based on a large sample of US commercial banks reveal that bank regulation explains p...

  2. Comorbidities contribute to the risk of cancer death among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians: Analysis of a matched cohort study.

    Banham, David; Roder, David; Brown, Alex

    2018-02-01

    Aboriginal Australians have poorer cancer survival than other Australians. Diagnoses at later stages and correlates of remote area living influence, but do not fully explain, these disparities. Little is known of the prevalence and influence of comorbid conditions experienced by Aboriginal people, including their effect on cancer survival. This study quantifies hospital recorded comorbidities using the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI), examines their influence on risk of cancer death, then considers effect variation by Aboriginality. Cancers diagnosed among Aboriginal South Australians in 1990-2010 (N = 777) were matched with randomly selected non-Aboriginal cases by birth year, diagnostic year, sex, and primary site, then linked to administrative hospital records to the time of diagnosis. Competing risk regression summarised associations of Aboriginal status, stage, geographic attributes and comorbidities with risk of cancer death. A threshold of four or more ECI conditions was associated with increased risk of cancer death (sub-hazard ratio SHR 1.66, 95%CI 1.11-2.46). Alternatively, the presence of any one of a subset of ECI conditions was associated with similarly increased risk (SHR = 1.62, 95%CI 1.23-2.14). The observed effects did not differ between Aboriginal and matched non-Aboriginal cases. However, Aboriginal cases experienced three times higher exposure than non-Aboriginal to four or more ECI conditions (14.2% versus 4.5%) and greater exposure to the subset of ECI conditions (20.7% versus 8.0%). Comorbidities at diagnosis increased the risk of cancer death in addition to risks associated with Aboriginality, remoteness of residence and disease stage at diagnosis. The Aboriginal cohort experienced comparatively greater exposure to comorbidities which adds to disparities in cancer outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Analytic manifolds in uniform algebras

    Tonev, T.V.

    1988-12-01

    Here we extend Bear-Hile's result concerning the version of famous Bishop's theorem for one-dimensional analytic structures in two directions: for n-dimensional complex analytic manifolds, n>1, and for generalized analytic manifolds. 14 refs

  4. Assessing the contribution of borderline personality disorder and features to suicide risk in psychiatric inpatients with bipolar disorder, major depression and schizoaffective disorder.

    Zeng, Ruifan; Cohen, Lisa J; Tanis, Thachell; Qizilbash, Azra; Lopatyuk, Yana; Yaseen, Zimri S; Galynker, Igor

    2015-03-30

    Suicidal behavior often accompanies both borderline personality disorder (BPD) and severe mood disorders, and comorbidity between the two appears to further increase suicide risk. The current study aims to quantify the risk of suicidality conferred by comorbid BPD diagnosis or features in three affective disorders: major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BP) and schizoaffective disorder. One hundred forty-nine (149) psychiatric inpatients were assessed by SCID I and II, and the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Logistic regression analyses investigated the associations between previous suicide attempt and BPD diagnosis or features in patients with MDD, BP, and schizoaffective disorder, as well as a history of manic or major depressive episodes, and psychotic symptoms. Comorbid BPD diagnosis significantly increased suicide risk in the whole sample, and in those with MDD, BP, and history of depressive episode or psychotic symptoms. Each additional borderline feature also increased risk of past suicide attempt in these same groups (excepting BP) and in those with a previous manic episode. Of the BPD criteria, only unstable relationships and impulsivity independently predicted past suicide attempt. Overall, among patients with severe mood disorders, the presence of comorbid BPD features or disorder appears to substantially increase the risk of suicide attempts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Information theory in analytical chemistry

    Eckschlager, Karel; Danzer, Klaus

    1994-01-01

    Contents: The aim of analytical chemistry - Basic concepts of information theory - Identification of components - Qualitative analysis - Quantitative analysis - Multicomponent analysis - Optimum analytical...

  6. Towards Actionable Learning Analytics Using Dispositions

    Tempelaar, Dirk T.; Rienties, Bart; Nguyen, Quan

    2017-01-01

    Studies in the field of learning analytics (LA) have shown students' demographics and learning management system (LMS) data to be effective identifiers of "at risk" performance. However, insights generated by these predictive models may not be suitable for pedagogically informed interventions due to the inability to explain why students…

  7. AN EXTENDED REINFORCEMENT LEARNING MODEL OF BASAL GANGLIA TO UNDERSTAND THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF SEROTONIN AND DOPAMINE IN RISK-BASED DECISION MAKING, REWARD PREDICTION, AND PUNISHMENT LEARNING

    Pragathi Priyadharsini Balasubramani

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Although empirical and neural studies show that serotonin (5HT plays many functional roles in the brain, prior computational models mostly focus on its role in behavioral inhibition. In this study, we present a model of risk based decision making in a modified Reinforcement Learning (RL-framework. The model depicts the roles of dopamine (DA and serotonin (5HT in Basal Ganglia (BG. In this model, the DA signal is represented by the temporal difference error (δ, while the 5HT signal is represented by a parameter (α that controls risk prediction error. This formulation that accommodates both 5HT and DA reconciles some of the diverse roles of 5HT particularly in connection with the BG system. We apply the model to different experimental paradigms used to study the role of 5HT: 1 Risk-sensitive decision making, where 5HT controls risk assessment, 2 Temporal reward prediction, where 5HT controls time-scale of reward prediction, and 3 Reward/Punishment sensitivity, in which the punishment prediction error depends on 5HT levels. Thus the proposed integrated RL model reconciles several existing theories of 5HT and DA in the BG.

  8. T1 polymorphism in a disintegrin and metalloproteinase 33 (ADAM33) gene may contribute to the risk of childhood asthma in Asians.

    Deng, Rui; Zhao, Fengyan; Zhong, Xiaoyun

    2017-05-01

    Polymorphisms in ADAM33 gene have been implicated in susceptibility to the risk of childhood asthma. However, the results remain controversial. We performed meta-analyses to clarify the relationship between them. Relevant articles were searched in PubMed, Embase, Wanfang, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. The Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to assess the strength of the associations. Fourteen studies with five ADAM33 polymorphisms (F + 1, T1, T2, S2, and V4) were identified, involving 2687 cases and 2996 controls. ADAM33 F + 1, T2, and T1 polymorphisms showed significant associations with asthma risks in the overall and Caucasian children, Asian children, and Caucasian and Chinese children, respectively; however, these significant results were unstable in sensitivity analysis. T1 revealed significant and stable associations with asthma risks among Asian children in the dominant (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.40-2.87, P = 0.0002) and codominant (OR = 3.06, 95% CI = 1.71-5.50, P = 0.0002) models; in cumulative meta-analyses, these significant results were robust. Concerning S2 or V4 polymorphism, no significant associations were observed. These findings demonstrate that ADAM33 T1 polymorphism might be a potential susceptible predictor of asthma for Asian children. Further functional studies between this polymorphism and asthma risks are warranted.

  9. Family Functioning Predictors of Self-Concept and Self-Esteem in Children at Risk for Learning Disabilities in Oman: Exclusion of Parent and Gender Contribution

    Emam, Mahmoud Mohamed; Abu-Serei, Usama Saad

    2014-01-01

    The study investigated whether family functioning can predict the self-concept and self-esteem of normally achieving (NA) and at risk for learning disabilities (LD) students in Oman regardless of parent education level and gender status. A total of 259 elementary school students were selected from schools in the main districts of Muscat, the…

  10. The safety culture according to a comprehensive approach. A contribution to risk governance within complex systems. Doctoral thesis prepared at SCK-CEN and defended in 2004

    Fucks, I.

    2005-01-01

    The article refers to an abstract of a doctoral thesis. This PhD is based on two evolutions within the society concerning the way to manage modern risks. It is more and more acknowledged that, firstly, rational scientific models are no longer capable to explain and manage the complexity and the diversity of risks. Secondly the supporters of a democratic conception of the risk governance claim that the risk management can benefit from the participation of the lay people to the debate. Within this framework, the study of safety culture, according to a bottom-up and comprehensive approach, in the field of the social sciences, represents an opportunity to make concrete the risk governance principle within complex system (such as a nuclear power plant and a nuclear research centre). The objectives of this PhD are the following: to appreciate the participation of the workers to the debate of the risk management within organisations; to present the lessons which can be drawn from this exercise and finally to investigate the safety culture of different groups of workers adopting an alternative view as compared to the vision as formulated in the present texts of the IAEA.The methodology was based on two techniques: observation and Focus Group. The observations were planed to feed further the Focus Group discussions with concrete examples of situations at work. We organized different Focus Group discussions with different kinds of workers (workers, managers, safety officers) in order to collect the social representation relating to the safety, the organization, the technology, the socio-economical environment and the work of each of these groups, both in the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre and in the Nuclear Power Plant of Tricastin in France. The results confirm firstly the relevance of developing a multidisciplinary theoretical framework of safety culture drawing its inspiration from sociology, social psychology, anthropology, etc. This multidisciplinary approach allows

  11. Competing on talent analytics.

    Davenport, Thomas H; Harris, Jeanne; Shapiro, Jeremy

    2010-10-01

    Do investments in your employees actually affect workforce performance? Who are your top performers? How can you empower and motivate other employees to excel? Leading-edge companies such as Google, Best Buy, Procter & Gamble, and Sysco use sophisticated data-collection technology and analysis to answer these questions, leveraging a range of analytics to improve the way they attract and retain talent, connect their employee data to business performance, differentiate themselves from competitors, and more. The authors present the six key ways in which companies track, analyze, and use data about their people-ranging from a simple baseline of metrics to monitor the organization's overall health to custom modeling for predicting future head count depending on various "what if" scenarios. They go on to show that companies competing on talent analytics manage data and technology at an enterprise level, support what analytical leaders do, choose realistic targets for analysis, and hire analysts with strong interpersonal skills as well as broad expertise.

  12. Analytic number theory

    Iwaniec, Henryk

    2004-01-01

    Analytic Number Theory distinguishes itself by the variety of tools it uses to establish results, many of which belong to the mainstream of arithmetic. One of the main attractions of analytic number theory is the vast diversity of concepts and methods it includes. The main goal of the book is to show the scope of the theory, both in classical and modern directions, and to exhibit its wealth and prospects, its beautiful theorems and powerful techniques. The book is written with graduate students in mind, and the authors tried to balance between clarity, completeness, and generality. The exercis

  13. An analytic thomism?

    Daniel Alejandro Pérez Chamorro.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available For 50 years the philosophers of the Anglo-Saxon analytic tradition (E. Anscombre, P. Geach, A. Kenny, P. Foot have tried to follow the Thomas Aquinas School which they use as a source to surpass the Cartesian Epistemology and to develop the virtue ethics. Recently, J. Haldane has inaugurated a program of “analytical thomism” which main result until the present has been his “theory of identity mind/world”. Nevertheless, none of Thomás’ admirers has still found the means of assimilating his metaphysics of being.

  14. News for analytical chemists

    Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov; Karlberg, Bo

    2009-01-01

    welfare. In conjunction with the meeting of the steering committee in Tallinn, Estonia, in April, Mihkel Kaljurand and Mihkel Koel of Tallinn University of Technology organised a successful symposium attended by 51 participants. The symposium illustrated the scientific work of the steering committee...... directed to various topics of analytical chemistry. Although affected by the global financial crisis, the Euroanalysis Conference will be held on 6 to 10 September in Innsbruck, Austria. For next year, the programme for the analytical section of the 3rd European Chemistry Congress is in preparation...

  15. Supercritical fluid analytical methods

    Smith, R.D.; Kalinoski, H.T.; Wright, B.W.; Udseth, H.R.

    1988-01-01

    Supercritical fluids are providing the basis for new and improved methods across a range of analytical technologies. New methods are being developed to allow the detection and measurement of compounds that are incompatible with conventional analytical methodologies. Characterization of process and effluent streams for synfuel plants requires instruments capable of detecting and measuring high-molecular-weight compounds, polar compounds, or other materials that are generally difficult to analyze. The purpose of this program is to develop and apply new supercritical fluid techniques for extraction, separation, and analysis. These new technologies will be applied to previously intractable synfuel process materials and to complex mixtures resulting from their interaction with environmental and biological systems

  16. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  17. Using analytic continuation for the hadronic vacuum polarization computation

    Feng, Xu; Hashimoto, Shoji; Hotzel, Grit; Jansen, Karl; Petschlies, Marcus; B, Renner Dru

    2014-11-01

    We present two examples of applications of the analytic continuation method for computing the hadronic vacuum polarization function in space- and time-like momentum regions. These examples are the Adler function and the leading order hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment. We comment on the feasibility of the analytic continuation method and provide an outlook for possible further applications.

  18. Learning Analytics for Online Discussions: Embedded and Extracted Approaches

    Wise, Alyssa Friend; Zhao, Yuting; Hausknecht, Simone Nicole

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes an application of learning analytics that builds on an existing research program investigating how students contribute and attend to the messages of others in asynchronous online discussions. We first overview the E-Listening research program and then explain how this work was translated into analytics that students and…

  19. Discourse-Centric Learning Analytics: Mapping the Terrain

    Knight, Simon; Littleton, Karen

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing interest in developing learning analytic techniques for the analysis, and support of, high-quality learning discourse. This paper maps the terrain of discourse-centric learning analytics (DCLA), outlining the distinctive contribution of DCLA and outlining a definition for the field moving forwards. It is our claim that DCLA…

  20. Gatlinburg conference: barometer of progress in analytical chemistry

    Shults, W.D.

    1981-01-01

    Much progress has been made in the field of analytical chemistry over the past twenty-five years. The AEC-ERDA-DOE family of laboratories contributed greatly to this progress. It is not surprising then to find a close correlation between program content of past Gatlinburg conferences and developments in analytical methodology. These conferences have proved to be a barometer of technical status

  1. Analytical Chemistry for Homeland Defense and National Security

    S.Randolph Long; Dan rock; Gary Eiceman; Chris Rowe Taitt; Robert J.Cotter; Dean D.Fetterolf; David R.Walt; Basil I. Swanson; Scott A McLuckey; Robin L.Garrell; Scott D. Cunningham

    2002-08-18

    The budget was requested to support speaker expenses to attend and speak in the day long symposium at the ACS meeting. The purpose of the symposium was to encourage analytical chemists to contribute to national security.

  2. The contribution of self-esteem and self-concept in psychological distress in women at risk of hereditary breast cancer.

    den Heijer, Mariska; Seynaeve, Caroline; Vanheusden, Kathleen; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Vos, Joël; Bartels, Carina C M; Menke-Pluymers, Marian B E; Tibben, Aad

    2011-11-01

    Clarification of the role of several aspects of self-concept regarding psychological distress in women at risk of hereditary breast cancer will help to target counselling and psychosocial interventions more appropriately. In this study, we aimed (1) to examine the role of general self-esteem and specific aspects of self-concept (i.e. stigma, vulnerability, and mastery) in psychological distress in women at risk of hereditary breast cancer and (2) to compare the relative importance of these self-concept aspects in psychological distress in women with low versus high self-esteem. General and breast-cancer-specific distress, self-esteem, self-concept, and demographics were assessed in 246 women being at risk of hereditary breast cancer, who opted either for regular breast surveillance or prophylactic surgery. In the total study group, self-esteem was negatively associated with general distress. Furthermore, feeling stigmatized was strongly associated with more breast-cancer-specific distress, and to a lesser degree with general distress. In women with low-self esteem, feelings of stigmatization were strongly associated with higher levels of both breast-cancer-specific and general distress, while a sense of mastery was associated with less general distress. For women with high self-esteem, feelings of both stigmatization and vulnerability were associated with more breast-cancer-specific distress, whereas there were no significant associations with general distress. Psychosocial interventions or support groups for women at risk of hereditary breast cancer should focus on self-esteem and feelings of stigmatization and isolation, and consequently tailor the interventions on specific items for respective women. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Urbanization and Daily Exposure to Biomass Fuel Smoke Both Contribute to Chronic Bronchitis Risk in a Population with Low Prevalence of Daily Tobacco Smoking.

    Miele, Catherine H; Jaganath, Devan; Miranda, J Jaime; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Gilman, Robert H; Johnson, Caroline M; Diette, Gregory B; Wise, Robert A; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Risk factors beyond tobacco smoking associated with chronic bronchitis are not well understood. We sought to describe the prevalence and risk factors of chronic bronchitis across four distinct settings in Peru with overall low prevalence of tobacco smoking yet varying degrees of urbanization, daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke and living at high altitude. We analyzed data of 2,947 participants from rural and urban Puno, Lima and Tumbes including spirometry, blood samples, anthropometry and administered questionnaires about respiratory symptoms. We used multivariable Poisson regression to assess biologic, socioeconomic and environmental risk factors associated with chronic bronchitis. Overall prevalence of chronic bronchitis was 5.9% (95%CI 5.1%-6.9%) with variation by setting: prevalence was lower in semi-urban Tumbes (1.3%) vs. highly urbanized Lima (8.9%), urban Puno (7.0%) and rural Puno (7.8%; p urbanization (PR = 3.34, 95%CI 2.18-5.11) and daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke (PR = 2.00, 95%CI 1.30-3.07) were all associated with chronic bronchitis. We found important variations in the prevalence of chronic bronchitis across settings. Prevalence increased with both urbanization and with daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke. Having chronic bronchitis was also associated with worse patient-centered outcomes including dyspnea, hospitalization and missed workdays.

  4. Contribution of the french society of radiological protection to the current reflections on the possible improvement of the radiological risk management system

    Lecomte, J.F.; Schieber, C.

    2000-01-01

    Following the invitation by IRPA to comment the article by Prof. R. Clarke entitled 'Control of Low Level Radiation Exposures: Time for a Change?', the Board of the French Radiological Protection Society (SFRP) has decided to set up a specific Working Group. This Group consists of some twenty members representing the stakeholders involved in radiological protection in France. Its goal is, starting from an analysis of R. Clarke's text, to formulate questions and proposals to assist ICRP in making its radiological protection system more understandable and more efficient. The aim of this review is not to restart from scratch but to consolidate and improve the existing system. The Working Group has therefore focused its thoughts on the following four points: 1. The basis of the radiological risk management system. In the absence of scientific certainty as to the effects of low doses of radiation, a prudent attitude has been adopted as to the manner of managing the radiological risk, based on the hypothesis that the dose-effect relationship is linear with no threshold. The Group discusses this basic assumption and its implications on the elaboration of the objectives of the radiological risk management system. 2. Exposure situations. Exposure situations are multifarious and the existing system divides them into categories for management purpose (e.g. practice/intervention; natural/artificial; medical/public/occupational; actual exposure/potential exposure; etc.). Some of these divisions are pertinent but some are less so and the Group examines if another way of conceptualising exposures situations could be more efficient. 3. Risk management indicators and tools. The radiological protection system provides the professionals with a series of indicators and tools, enabling them to manage exposure situations (dose, dose limit, dose constraint, individual dose, collective dose, investigation level, action level, interventional level, exemption level, clearance level

  5. Analytical system availability techniques

    Brouwers, J.J.H.; Verbeek, P.H.J.; Thomson, W.R.

    1987-01-01

    Analytical techniques are presented to assess the probability distributions and related statistical parameters of loss of production from equipment networks subject to random failures and repairs. The techniques are based on a theoretical model for system availability, which was further developed

  6. Explanatory analytics in OLAP

    Caron, E.A.M.; Daniëls, H.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the authors describe a method to integrate explanatory business analytics in OLAP information systems. This method supports the discovery of exceptional values in OLAP data and the explanation of such values by giving their underlying causes. OLAP applications offer a support tool for

  7. Analytical procedures. Pt. 1

    Weber, G.

    1985-01-01

    In analytical procedures (Boole procedures) there is certain to be a close relationship between the safety assessment and reliability assessment of technical facilities. The paper gives an overview of the organization of models, fault trees, the probabilistic evaluation of systems, evaluation with minimum steps or minimum paths regarding statistically dependent components and of systems liable to suffer different kinds of outages. (orig.) [de

  8. Ada & the Analytical Engine.

    Freeman, Elisabeth

    1996-01-01

    Presents a brief history of Ada Byron King, Countess of Lovelace, focusing on her primary role in the development of the Analytical Engine--the world's first computer. Describes the Ada Project (TAP), a centralized World Wide Web site that serves as a clearinghouse for information related to women in computing, and provides a Web address for…

  9. User Behavior Analytics

    Turcotte, Melissa [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Moore, Juston Shane [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-02-28

    User Behaviour Analytics is the tracking, collecting and assessing of user data and activities. The goal is to detect misuse of user credentials by developing models for the normal behaviour of user credentials within a computer network and detect outliers with respect to their baseline.

  10. Of the Analytical Engine

    cloth will be woven all of one colour; but there will be a damask pattern upon it ... mathematical view of the Analytical Engine, and illustrate by example some of its .... be to v~rify the number of the card given it by subtracting its number from 2 3 ...

  11. Limitless Analytic Elements

    Strack, O. D. L.

    2018-02-01

    We present equations for new limitless analytic line elements. These elements possess a virtually unlimited number of degrees of freedom. We apply these new limitless analytic elements to head-specified boundaries and to problems with inhomogeneities in hydraulic conductivity. Applications of these new analytic elements to practical problems involving head-specified boundaries require the solution of a very large number of equations. To make the new elements useful in practice, an efficient iterative scheme is required. We present an improved version of the scheme presented by Bandilla et al. (2007), based on the application of Cauchy integrals. The limitless analytic elements are useful when modeling strings of elements, rivers for example, where local conditions are difficult to model, e.g., when a well is close to a river. The solution of such problems is facilitated by increasing the order of the elements to obtain a good solution. This makes it unnecessary to resort to dividing the element in question into many smaller elements to obtain a satisfactory solution.

  12. Social Learning Analytics

    Buckingham Shum, Simon; Ferguson, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    We propose that the design and implementation of effective "Social Learning Analytics (SLA)" present significant challenges and opportunities for both research and enterprise, in three important respects. The first is that the learning landscape is extraordinarily turbulent at present, in no small part due to technological drivers.…

  13. Analytics for Customer Engagement

    Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Leeflang, Peter S. H.; Block, Frank; Eisenbeiss, Maik; Hardie, Bruce G. S.; Lemmens, Aurelie; Saffert, Peter

    In this article, we discuss the state of the art of models for customer engagement and the problems that are inherent to calibrating and implementing these models. The authors first provide an overview of the data available for customer analytics and discuss recent developments. Next, the authors

  14. European Analytical Column

    Karlberg, B.; Grasserbauer, M.; Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov

    2009-01-01

    for European analytical chemistry. During the period 2002–07, Professor Grasserbauer was Director of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy. There is no doubt that many challenges exist at the present time for all of us representing...

  15. Analytical Chemistry Laboratory

    Anderson, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The Analytical Chemistry and Material Development Group maintains a capability in chemical analysis, materials R&D failure analysis and contamination control. The uniquely qualified staff and facility support the needs of flight projects, science instrument development and various technical tasks, as well as Cal Tech.

  16. Multispectral analytical image fusion

    Stubbings, T.C.

    2000-04-01

    With new and advanced analytical imaging methods emerging, the limits of physical analysis capabilities and furthermore of data acquisition quantities are constantly pushed, claiming high demands to the field of scientific data processing and visualisation. Physical analysis methods like Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) or Auger Electron Spectroscopy (AES) and others are capable of delivering high-resolution multispectral two-dimensional and three-dimensional image data; usually this multispectral data is available in form of n separate image files with each showing one element or other singular aspect of the sample. There is high need for digital image processing methods enabling the analytical scientist, confronted with such amounts of data routinely, to get rapid insight into the composition of the sample examined, to filter the relevant data and to integrate the information of numerous separate multispectral images to get the complete picture. Sophisticated image processing methods like classification and fusion provide possible solution approaches to this challenge. Classification is a treatment by multivariate statistical means in order to extract analytical information. Image fusion on the other hand denotes a process where images obtained from various sensors or at different moments of time are combined together to provide a more complete picture of a scene or object under investigation. Both techniques are important for the task of information extraction and integration and often one technique depends on the other. Therefore overall aim of this thesis is to evaluate the possibilities of both techniques regarding the task of analytical image processing and to find solutions for the integration and condensation of multispectral analytical image data in order to facilitate the interpretation of the enormous amounts of data routinely acquired by modern physical analysis instruments. (author)

  17. Variable effects of maternal and paternal-fetal contribution to the risk for preeclampsia combining GSTP1, eNOS, and LPL gene polymorphisms.

    Pappa, Kalliopi I; Roubelakis, Maria; Vlachos, George; Marinopoulos, Spyros; Zissou, Antonia; Anagnou, Nicholas P; Antsaklis, Aris

    2011-04-01

    To evaluate the maternal, paternal, and fetal genotype contribution to preeclampsia. STUDY DESIGN, MATERIALS, AND METHODS: We combined the analysis of polymorphisms of the GSTP1, eNOS, and LPL genes - affecting biotransformation enzymes and endothelial function - in a cohort of 167 preeclamptic and normal control trios (mother, father, and child) comprising a total of 501 samples in the Greek population, never analyzed before by this approach. For the frequency of the GSTP1 Ile(105)/Val(105), the eNOS Glu298Asp and the LPL-93 polymorphisms, statistically significant differences were found between the two groups. However, the transmission rates of the parental alleles to neonates studied by the transmission disequilibrium test, disclosed no increased rate of transmission to preeclampsia children for the variant alleles of Val(105) GSTP1, 298Asp eNOS, and -93G LPL. These novel data, suggest that interaction of all three types of genotypes (mother, father and neonate), reveals no effects on the development of preeclampsia, but provide the impetus for further studies to decipher the individual contribution of each genetic parameter of preeclampsia.

  18. Contribution to the study of radon risk assessment - Use of Solid State Nuclear Tracks Detectors (SSNTD) for the measurement of radon in buildings

    RALAIARISOA, H.L

    2004-01-01

    222 Rn is a natural radioactive gas, originating from the decay of 226 Ra. Both of these radionuclides are elements of 238 U series. Uranium is naturally present in the rocks and soils, therefore radon is always present too because it is a soil gas. Radon takes the most important part in man exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiations. Moreover, it causes lung cancer. It can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, so that its inhalation is a potential risk for human health. Thus radon measurement is necessary for radiation protection. Integrated measurement using Solid State Nuclear Tracks Detector (SSNTD) is a very common method for radon measurement in buildings because of the low cost of the detectors and their easy application. The measurement technics are based on the interaction of alpha particles emitted by radon with a polymer. Alpha particles produce in the polymer latent tracks, which need chemical revelation to be observable with optical microscopy. The number of revealed tracks is proportionnal to the average volumic activity of 222 Rn corresponding to the time exposure of the detectors.The aim of this thesis work is the continuation of previous study on the preliminary investigations of radon levels in the city of Antananarivo, and to extend this study in Antsirabe, which has been shown as a region of interest. The levels of radon measured in buildings in Antananarivo and Antsirabe are typical values of indoor radon concentration. The average values of concentrations are inferior to 60 Bq.m - 3. The health risk is negligible but not nul. A typical protocol of radon level measurement in Malagasy buildings is suggested to allow the implementation of a risk management policy related to radon within the Malagasy context. [fr

  19. Contribution to the study of diffusion as related to the leaching of glasses: application to the potential risk of long-term storage

    Imbert, J.C.; Pacaud, F.

    Leaching of glasses made from radioactive wastes of very high activity was studied. Leaching agents used were water for temperatures below 100 0 C; molten nitrates for temperatures higher than 100 0 C; solutions of various pH or charged with either sodium chloride or cesium; and dry or wet air. From the quantities of entrained radioactive elements, overall apparent diffusion coefficients were determined for fission products with long periods such as cerium, cesium, ruthenium, and strontium. Diffusion activation energies were also determined. These results are applied to the calculation of the potential risk of storage for vitrified fission products

  20. Role of semen in altering the balance between inflammation and tolerance in the female genital tract: does it contribute to HIV risk?

    Rametse, Cosnet L; Olivier, Abraham J; Masson, Lindi; Barnabas, Shaun; McKinnon, Lyle R; Ngcapu, Sinaye; Liebenberg, Lenine J; Jaumdally, Shameem Z; Gray, Clive M; Jaspan, Heather B; Passmore, Jo-Ann S

    2014-06-01

    While the main reproduction aim of semen is the transport of spermatozoa to the female genital tract, seminal plasma is a complex fluid that also carries a broad array of immunologically active molecules. Seminal plasma has been shown to contain a diverse array of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory soluble mediators that regulate immune responses within the female reproductive tract than can facilitate fertilization. Since the natural inflammatory response to semen deposition in the female genital tract may result in recruitment of activated HIV target cells into the female genital mucosa, we discuss the constituents of semen that may increase the risk for HIV infection in women.