WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk analysis support

  1. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  2. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  3. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  4. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  5. Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

    2000-01-07

    The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

  6. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  7. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  8. A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, T; MacLeod, A; Mumford, J D; Nghiem, T P L; Tan, H T W; Papworth, S K; Corlett, R T; Carrasco, L R

    2016-05-01

    A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.

  10. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  11. A decision-support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, R.H.A.; Benninga, J.; Bremmer, J.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Ilieva, Z.; Jarosik, V.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Makowski, D.; Pergl, J.; Reynaud, P.; Robinet, C.; Soliman, T.; Werf, van der W.; Worner, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a decision-support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable

  12. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  13. Decision support systems and expert systems for risk and safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.

    1986-01-01

    During the last 1-2 years, rapid developments have occurred in the development of decision support systems and expert systems to aid in decision making related to risk and safety of industrial plants. These activities are most noteworthy in the nuclear industry where numerous systems are under development with implementation often being made on personal computers. An overview of some of these developments is provided, and an example of one recently developed decision support system is given. This example deals with CADET, a system developed to aid the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in making decisions related to the topical issue of source terms resulting from degraded core accidents in light water reactors. The paper concludes with some comments on the likely directions of future developments in decision support systems and expert systems to aid in the management of risk and safety in industrial plants. (author)

  14. Analysis of the risk management decisionmaking processes and the decision support systems in the wildland fire agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Withen

    2007-01-01

    This paper offers an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the risk management process, decision support systems (DSSs), and other types of decisionmaking, including recognition primed decisionmaking, bricolage with the goal of improving DSSs and decisionmaking. DSSs may be thought of as any technology or knowledge that is used as an aid...

  15. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  16. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

  17. Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutritional Support for the Prevention of Pressure Ulcers in High-Risk Hospitalized Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

    2016-06-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support compared with standard care in preventing pressure ulcers (PrUs) in high-risk hospitalized patients. An economic model using data from a systematic literature review. A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on the efficacy of nutritional support in reducing the incidence of PrUs was conducted. Modeled cohort of hospitalized patients at high risk of developing PrUs and malnutrition simulated during their hospital stay and up to 1 year. Standard care included PrU prevention strategies, such as redistribution surfaces, repositioning, and skin protection strategies, along with standard hospital diet. In addition to the standard care, the intervention group received nutritional support comprising patient education, nutrition goal setting, and the consumption of high-protein supplements. The analysis was from a healthcare payer perspective. Key outcomes of the model included the average costs and quality-adjusted life years. Model results were tested in univariate sensitivity analyses, and decision uncertainty was characterized using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Compared with standard care, nutritional support was cost saving at AU $425 per patient and marginally more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years gained. The probability of nutritional support being cost-effective was 87%. Nutritional support to prevent PrUs in high-risk hospitalized patients is cost-effective with substantial cost savings predicted. Hospitals should implement the recommendations from the current PrU practice guidelines and offer nutritional support to high-risk patients.

  18. The need for intra aortic balloon pump support following open heart surgery: risk analysis and outcome.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Parissis, Haralabos

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The early and intermediate outcome of patients requiring intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) was studied in a cohort of 2697 adult cardiac surgical patients. METHODS: 136 patients requiring IABP (5.04%) support analysed over a 4 year period. Prospective data collection, obtained. RESULTS: The overall operative mortality was 35.3%. The "operation specific" mortality was higher on the Valve population.The mortality (%) as per time of balloon insertion was: Preoperative 18.2, Intraoperative 33.3, postoperative 58.3 (p < 0.05).The incremental risk factors for death were: Female gender (Odds Ratio (OR) = 3.87 with Confidence Intervals (CI) = 1.3-11.6), Smoking (OR = 4.88, CI = 1.23- 19.37), Preoperative Creatinine>120 (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.14-9.7), Cross Clamp time>80 min (OR = 4.16, CI = 1.73-9.98) and IABP insertion postoperatively (OR = 19.19, CI = 3.16-116.47).The incremental risk factors for the development of complications were: Poor EF (OR = 3.16, CI = 0.87-11.52), Euroscore >7 (OR = 2.99, CI = 1.14-7.88), history of PVD (OR = 4.99, CI = 1.32-18.86).The 5 years survival was 79.2% for the CABG population and 71.5% for the valve group. (Hazard ratio = 1.78, CI = 0.92-3.46). CONCLUSIONS: IABP represents a safe option of supporting the failing heart. The need for IABP especially in a high risk Valve population is associated with early unfavourable outcome, however the positive mid term results further justify its use.

  19. The need for intra aortic balloon pump support following open heart surgery: risk analysis and outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Apostolakis Efstratios

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The early and intermediate outcome of patients requiring intraaortic balloon pump (IABP was studied in a cohort of 2697 adult cardiac surgical patients. Methods 136 patients requiring IABP (5.04% support analysed over a 4 year period. Prospective data collection, obtained. Results The overall operative mortality was 35.3%. The "operation specific" mortality was higher on the Valve population. The mortality (% as per time of balloon insertion was: Preoperative 18.2, Intraopeartive 33.3, postoperative 58.3 (p The incremental risk factors for death were: Female gender (Odds Ratio (OR = 3.87 with Confidence Intervals (CI = 1.3-11.6, Smoking (OR = 4.88, CI = 1.23- 19.37, Preoperative Creatinine>120 (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.14-9.7, Cross Clamp time>80 min (OR = 4.16, CI = 1.73-9.98 and IABP insertion postoperatively (OR = 19.19, CI = 3.16-116.47. The incremental risk factors for the development of complications were: Poor EF (OR = 3.16, CI = 0.87-11.52, Euroscore >7 (OR = 2.99, CI = 1.14-7.88, history of PVD (OR = 4.99, CI = 1.32-18.86. The 5 years survival was 79.2% for the CABG population and 71.5% for the valve group. (Hazard ratio = 1.78, CI = 0.92-3.46. Conclusions IABP represents a safe option of supporting the failing heart. The need for IABP especially in a high risk Valve population is associated with early unfavourable outcome, however the positive mid term results further justify its use.

  20. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  1. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  2. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  3. Risk-informed profitability-based analysis support of nuclear power station balance-of-plant change management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liming, J.K. [EQE International, Inc., An ABS Group Company, Irvine, CA (United States); Kee, E.J.; Grantom, C.R.; Richards, A.M. [STP Nuclear Operating Company, Wadsworth, TX (United States)

    2001-07-01

    In this paper, a three-phased method is proposed for the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) Risk and Reliability Analysis Section (RRA) to perform analyses and decision-making support for the STPNOC Balance-of-Plant (BOP)Task Force in managing change to simultaneously optimize plant safety and maximize long-term return-on-asset (or profitability) for the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). (authors)

  4. Risk-informed profitability-based analysis support of nuclear power station balance-of-plant change management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liming, J.K.; Kee, E.J.; Grantom, C.R.; Richards, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, a three-phased method is proposed for the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) Risk and Reliability Analysis Section (RRA) to perform analyses and decision-making support for the STPNOC Balance-of-Plant (BOP)Task Force in managing change to simultaneously optimize plant safety and maximize long-term return-on-asset (or profitability) for the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS). (authors)

  5. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  6. Analysis of the Fiscal Resources Supporting At-Risk Youth, Ages 13-24, in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silloway, Torey; Connors-Tadros, Lori; Dahlin, Melissa

    2012-01-01

    Hawaii's largest populations of at-risk youth include those youth who have dropped out of school, are at-risk of not completing high school, and youth who have completed school but are still not prepared for the workforce. Depending on estimates used, between 20 and 25 percent of Hawaiian youth are at risk of dropping out school. For older youth,…

  7. Lungworm Infections in German dairy cattle herds--seroprevalence and GIS-supported risk factor analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Marie Schunn

    Full Text Available In November 2008, a total of 19,910 bulk tank milk (BTM samples were obtained from dairy farms from all over Germany, corresponding to about 20% of all German dairy herds, and analysed for antibodies against the bovine lungworm Dictyocaulus viviparus by use of the recombinant MSP-ELISA. A total number of 3,397 (17.1%; n = 19,910 BTM samples tested seropositive. The prevalences in individual German federal states varied between 0.0% and 31.2% positive herds. A geospatial map was drawn to show the distribution of seropositive and seronegative herds per postal code area. ELISA results were further analysed for associations with land-use and climate data. Bivariate statistical analysis was used to identify potential spatial risk factors for dictyocaulosis. Statistically significant positive associations were found between lungworm seropositive herds and the proportion of water bodies and grassed area per postal code area. Variables that showed a statistically significant association with a positive BTM test were included in a logistic regression model, which was further refined by controlled stepwise selection of variables. The low Pseudo R(2 values (0.08 for the full model and 0.06 for the final model and further evaluation of the model by ROC analysis indicate that additional, unrecorded factors (e.g. management factors or random effects may substantially contribute to lungworm infections in dairy cows. Veterinarians should include lungworms in the differential diagnosis of respiratory disease in dairy cattle, particularly those at pasture. Monitoring of herds through BTM screening for antibodies can help farmers and veterinarians plan and implement appropriate control measures.

  8. Lungworm Infections in German Dairy Cattle Herds — Seroprevalence and GIS-Supported Risk Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schunn, Anne-Marie; Conraths, Franz J.; Staubach, Christoph; Fröhlich, Andreas; Forbes, Andrew; Strube, Christina

    2013-01-01

    In November 2008, a total of 19,910 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were obtained from dairy farms from all over Germany, corresponding to about 20% of all German dairy herds, and analysed for antibodies against the bovine lungworm Dictyocaulus viviparus by use of the recombinant MSP-ELISA. A total number of 3,397 (17.1%; n = 19,910) BTM samples tested seropositive. The prevalences in individual German federal states varied between 0.0% and 31.2% positive herds. A geospatial map was drawn to show the distribution of seropositive and seronegative herds per postal code area. ELISA results were further analysed for associations with land-use and climate data. Bivariate statistical analysis was used to identify potential spatial risk factors for dictyocaulosis. Statistically significant positive associations were found between lungworm seropositive herds and the proportion of water bodies and grassed area per postal code area. Variables that showed a statistically significant association with a positive BTM test were included in a logistic regression model, which was further refined by controlled stepwise selection of variables. The low Pseudo R2 values (0.08 for the full model and 0.06 for the final model) and further evaluation of the model by ROC analysis indicate that additional, unrecorded factors (e.g. management factors) or random effects may substantially contribute to lungworm infections in dairy cows. Veterinarians should include lungworms in the differential diagnosis of respiratory disease in dairy cattle, particularly those at pasture. Monitoring of herds through BTM screening for antibodies can help farmers and veterinarians plan and implement appropriate control measures. PMID:24040243

  9. System robustness analysis in support of flood and drought risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Mens, MJP

    2015-01-01

    Floods and droughts have an increasing impact on societies worldwide. It is unlikely that the provision of flood protection infrastructure and reservoirs will eliminate this problem, especially as extreme events are expected to increase in probability and magnitude as a result of climate change. For this reason, the focus of water management has shifted to a risk-based approach in recent years; but this also has its limitations.This book examines system robustness as a new perspective on flood and drought risk management. The concept of robustness is familiar from other areas, such as engineer

  10. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  11. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  12. Risk-informed analysis as a support to the preliminary design of the CEA GFR2400

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertrand, F.; Bassi, C.; Azria, P.; Bentivoglio, F.; Messie, A.; Balmain, M.

    2012-01-01

    The integration of safety issues in the early phase of the design of a 4. generation reactor of the concepts is expected. For this purpose, probabilistic insights are increasingly employed in the safety demonstration in combination with the deterministic approach in the frame of a so-called risk informed approach. The present paper deals with the safety assessment of the preliminary design of the GFR2400 developed by CEA and how it has been improved in order to fulfil deterministic criteria as well as to reach a risk level comparable to the generation III reactors. GFR2400 is a 2400 MWth, 3-loops, helium-cooled fast reactor developed at a pre-conceptual design stage whose secondary circuit is filled with a mixture of helium and nitrogen, the ternary circuit being filled with water vaporized in 3 steam generators according to a classical Rankine cycle. The resulting cycle efficiency is very close to 45 %. Considering the results obtained with a preliminary level 1 PSA (L1PSA) model, it emerged that an increased reliability of the DHR (Decay Heat Removal) function in high pressure conditions (not corresponding to a LOCA) was suitable to reduce the overall core damage frequency. On the other hand, some small break LOCA situations were not adequately mitigated according to the line of protection deterministic method. Both issues have been solved by design improvements. In addition, this final L1PSA model, characterized by success criteria based on transient calculations performed with the CATHARE2 code and performed in a perimeter extended to all representative internal initiating events at full operating power, permitted to propose design evolutions that did not increase significantly the CDF. In the same time, those evolutions enabled the DHR system to increase its redundancy level as required in the deterministic approach. Finally, a modified design has been reached implying a more extended covering of various accidental situations by means of a progressive DHR

  13. Decision support for utility environmental risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

  14. Analysis of emergency helpline support for home ventilator dependent patients: risk management and workload

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chatwin

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available From a total of 1211 adult & paediatric patients receiving home ventilation (HV supervised by Royal Brompton Hospital between 1/1/06 and 30/6/06 the respiratory support team received an average of 528 daytime calls/month and 14/month out of hours calls to a telephone helpline. Diagnoses included: neuromuscular disease, chest wall disease, COPD, obesity hypoventilation and non-COPD lung disease. 99% received non-invasive ventilation, 1% tracheostomy ventilation. 149 required 2 ventilators for near 24 hour ventilator dependency, the remainder were classified as 1 (17% 2 (33% & 3 (50% night dependency as were able to breathe spontaneously for this period. 50% used bilevel positive pressure ventilators, 48% inspiratory pressure ventilators and 2% volume ventilators. In 188 calls a home visit was carried out because of ventilator or associated equipment-related problems. Despite regular equipment servicing programme, in 188 patients there was a technical problem with the equipment which was solved in the patient's home in 64% or required replacement / parts in 22%. Of the 25 calls in which no fault was found, 13 patients were unwell at home or required hospital admission, 2 patients died within 1 month of identification of no fault. No patient was admitted as a result of technical failure of equipment. Conclusion: There is a significant workload associated with supporting HV patients. Patients / carers all received standard competency training before discharge but other calls may be reduced by a more flexible problem-solving approach. Importantly, reports in which no technical fault is found may indicate deteriorating health in the patient and require close follow-up.

  15. Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean–variance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitzing, Lena

    2014-01-01

    Different support instruments for renewable energy expose investors differently to market risks. This has implications on the attractiveness of investment. We use mean–variance portfolio analysis to identify the risk implications of two support instruments: feed-in tariffs and feed-in premiums. Using cash flow analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and mean–variance analysis, we quantify risk-return relationships for an exemplary offshore wind park in a simplified setting. We show that feed-in tariffs systematically require lower direct support levels than feed-in premiums while providing the same attractiveness for investment, because they expose investors to less market risk. These risk implications should be considered when designing policy schemes. - Highlights: • Mean–variance portfolio approach to analyse risk implications of policy instruments. • We show that feed-in tariffs require lower support levels than feed-in premiums. • This systematic effect stems from the lower exposure of investors to market risk. • We created a stochastic model for an exemplary offshore wind park in West Denmark. • We quantify risk-return, Sharpe Ratios and differences in required support levels

  16. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  17. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  18. Air Risk Information Support Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shoaf, C.R.; Guth, D.J. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Air Risk Information Support Center (Air RISC) was initiated in early 1988 by the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA) Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) and the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) as a technology transfer effort that would focus on providing information to state and local environmental agencies and to EPA Regional Offices in the areas of health, risk, and exposure assessment for toxic air pollutants. Technical information is fostered and disseminated by Air RISCs three primary activities: (1) a {open_quotes}hotline{close_quotes}, (2) quick turn-around technical assistance projects, and (3) general technical guidance projects. 1 ref., 2 figs.

  19. Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean-variance approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena

    2014-01-01

    . Using cash flow analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and mean-variance analysis, we quantify risk-return relationships for an exemplary offshore wind park in a simplified setting. We show that feedin tariffs systematically require lower direct support levels than feed-in premiums while providing the same...

  20. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  1. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  2. A GIS-Based Procedure for Landslide Intensity Evaluation and Specific risk Analysis Supported by Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bianchini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of landslide specific risk, defined as the expected degree of loss due to landslides, requires the parameterization and the combination of a number of socio-economic and geological factors, which often needs the interaction of different skills and expertise (geologists, engineers, planners, administrators, etc.. The specific risk sub-components, i.e., hazard and vulnerability of elements at risk, can be determined with different levels of detail depending on the available auxiliary data and knowledge of the territory. These risk factors are subject to short-term variations and nowadays turn out to be easily mappable and evaluable through remotely sensed data and GIS (Geographic Information System tools. In this work, we propose a qualitative approach at municipal scale for producing a “specific risk” map, supported by recent satellite PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry data derived from SENTINEL-1 C-band images in the spanning time 2014–2017, implemented in a GIS environment. In particular, PSI measurements are useful for the updating of a landslide inventory map of the area of interest and are exploited for the zonation map of the intensity of ground movements, needed for evaluating the vulnerability over the study area. Our procedure is presented throughout the application to the Volterra basin and the output map could be useful to support the local authorities with updated basic information required for environmental knowledge and planning at municipal level. Moreover, the proposed procedure is easily managed and repeatable in other case studies, as well as exploiting different SAR sensors in L- or X-band.

  3. Effect of peer support interventions on cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sonal J; Ruppar, Todd; Koopman, Richelle J; Lindbloom, Erik J; Elliott, Susan G; Mehr, David R; Conn, Vicki S

    2018-03-23

    Peer support by persons affected with diabetes improves peer supporter's diabetes self-management skills. Peer support interventions by individuals who have diabetes or are affected by diabetes have been shown to improve glycemic control; however, its effects on other cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to estimate the effect of peer support interventions on cardiovascular disease risk factors other than glycemic control in adults with diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing peer support interventions to a control condition in adults affected by diabetes that measured any cardiovascular disease risk factors [Body Mass Index, smoking, diet, physical activity, cholesterol level, glucose control and blood pressure]. Quality was assessed by Cochrane's risk of bias tool. We calculated standardized mean difference effect sizes using random effects models. We retrieved 438 citations from multiple databases including OVID MEDLINE, Cochrane database and Scopus, and author searches. Of 233 abstracts reviewed, 16 articles met inclusion criteria. A random effects model in a total of 3243 participants showed a positive effect of peer support interventions on systolic BP with a pooled effect size of 2.07 mmHg (CI 0.35 mmHg to 3.79 mmHg, p = 0.02); baseline pooled systolic blood pressure was 137 mmHg. There was a non-significant effect of peer support interventions on diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, diet and physical activity. Cardiovascular disease risk factors other than glycemic control outcomes were secondary outcomes in most studies and baseline values were normal or mildly elevated. Only one study reported smoking outcomes. We found a small (2 mmHg) positive effect of peer support interventions on systolic blood pressure in adults with diabetes whose baseline blood pressure was on average minimally elevated. Additional studies need to

  4. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of nutritional support for preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk patients: implement now, research later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

    2015-04-01

    Pressure ulcers are a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and increased healthcare cost. Nutritional support may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in hospitalised patients who are at risk of pressure ulcer and malnutrition. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients, and to assess the value of further research to inform the decision to implement this intervention using value of information analysis (VOI). The analysis was from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia using a decision model with evidence derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Resources were valued using 2014 prices and the time horizon of the analysis was one year. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate net monetary benefits (NB) and to calculate VOI measures. Compared with standard hospital diet, nutritional support was cost saving at AU$425 per patient, and more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$50,000 per QALY, the incremental NB was AU$675 per patient, with a probability of 87 % that nutritional support is cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information was AU$5 million and the expected value of perfect parameter information was highest for the relative risk of developing a pressure ulcer at AU$2.5 million. For a future trial investigating the relative effectiveness of the interventions, the expected net benefit of research would be maximised at AU$100,000 with 1,200 patients in each arm if nutritional support was perfectly implemented. The opportunity cost of withholding the decision to implement the intervention until the results of the future study are available would be AU$14 million. Nutritional support is cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients compared with standard diet. Future research to reduce decision uncertainty is worthwhile; however, given the

  5. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  6. Environmental analysis support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Activities in environmental analysis support included assistance to the Morgantown and Pittsburgh Energy Technology Centers (METC and PETC) in reviewing and preparing documents required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for several projects selected for the Clean Coal Technology (CCT) Program. A key milestone was the completion for PETC of the final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Healy Clean Coal Project (HCCP) in Healy, Alaska. This work is notable because it is the first site-specific EIS completed for the CCT Program. Another important activity was the preparation for METC of a draft Environmental Assessment (EA) for the Externally Fired Combined Cycle (EFCC) Project in Warren, Pennsylvania. Also, the final EA was completed for the Gasification Product Improvement Facility (GPIF), a proposed project near Morgantown, West Virginia, which is part of METC's R ampersand D Program. In addition, ORNL staff members published a Technical Memorandum entitled open-quotes Potential Effects of Clean Coal Technologies on Acid Precipitation, Greenhouse Gases, and Solid Waste Disposalclose quotes which documents the findings of three open-quotes white papersclose quotes prepared for DOE/FE

  7. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  8. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  9. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  10. Spool assembly support analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, B.F.

    1994-01-01

    This document provides the wind/seismic analysis and evaluation for the pump pit spool assemblies. Hand calculations were used for the analysis. UBC, AISC, and load factors were used in this evaluation. The results show that the actual loads are under the allowable loads and all requirements are met

  11. A step towards risk-based decision support for ships - Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depen...

  12. Support mechanisms and risk: Implications on the Nordic electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Ravn, Hans

    2013-01-01

    a stochastic analysis for the Nordic electricity system by conducting simulations with the energy system model Balmorel and by applying the mean-standard deviation approach of modern portfolio theory to quantify risk implications of policy instruments for an exemplary offshore wind park. The analysis reveals......Investments in renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind parks, are very much dependent on financial support. The type of policy instrument chosen for such support determines investors' exposure to market risk, and thus influences which rate of return they expect to achieve. We make...... that the two support policy schemes Feed-in Tariffs and Feed-in Premiums provide different risk-return relationships. In the investigated case, a Feed-in Premium scheme would require a 13% higher support level, because of a 6% higher exposure of investors to market risk. Our findings can help when designing...

  13. Geostatistical analysis of disease data: accounting for spatial support and population density in the isopleth mapping of cancer mortality risk using area-to-point Poisson kriging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goovaerts Pierre

    2006-11-01

    maps is the common biased visual perception that larger rural and sparsely populated areas are of greater importance. The approach presented in this paper allows the continuous mapping of mortality risk, while accounting locally for population density and areal data through the coherence constraint. This form of Poisson kriging will facilitate the analysis of relationships between health data and putative covariates that are typically measured over different spatial supports.

  14. Geostatistical analysis of disease data: accounting for spatial support and population density in the isopleth mapping of cancer mortality risk using area-to-point Poisson kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2006-01-01

    visual perception that larger rural and sparsely populated areas are of greater importance. The approach presented in this paper allows the continuous mapping of mortality risk, while accounting locally for population density and areal data through the coherence constraint. This form of Poisson kriging will facilitate the analysis of relationships between health data and putative covariates that are typically measured over different spatial supports. PMID:17137504

  15. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  17. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  18. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  19. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  20. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  1. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  2. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  3. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  4. Genome-Wide Analysis of Genetic Risk Factors for Rheumatic Heart Disease in Aboriginal Australians Provides Support for Pathogenic Molecular Mimicry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Lesley-Ann; D'Antoine, Heather A; Tong, Steven Y C; McKinnon, Melita; Bessarab, Dawn; Brown, Ngiare; Reményi, Bo; Steer, Andrew; Syn, Genevieve; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Inouye, Michael; Carapetis, Jonathan R

    2017-12-12

    Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) after group A streptococcus (GAS) infections is heritable and prevalent in Indigenous populations. Molecular mimicry between human and GAS proteins triggers proinflammatory cardiac valve-reactive T cells. Genome-wide genetic analysis was undertaken in 1263 Aboriginal Australians (398 RHD cases; 865 controls). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped using Illumina HumanCoreExome BeadChips. Direct typing and imputation was used to fine-map the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region. Epitope binding affinities were mapped for human cross-reactive GAS proteins, including M5 and M6. The strongest genetic association was intronic to HLA-DQA1 (rs9272622; P = 1.86 × 10-7). Conditional analyses showed rs9272622 and/or DQA1*AA16 account for the HLA signal. HLA-DQA1*0101_DQB1*0503 (odds ratio [OR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.90; P = 9.56 × 10-3) and HLA-DQA1*0103_DQB1*0601 (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.52; P = 7.15 × 10-3) were risk haplotypes; HLA_DQA1*0301-DQB1*0402 (OR 0.30, 95%CI 0.14-0.65, P = 2.36 × 10-3) was protective. Human myosin cross-reactive N-terminal and B repeat epitopes of GAS M5/M6 bind with higher affinity to DQA1/DQB1 alpha/beta dimers for the 2-risk haplotypes than the protective haplotype. Variation at HLA_DQA1-DQB1 is the major genetic risk factor for RHD in Aboriginal Australians studied here. Cross-reactive epitopes bind with higher affinity to alpha/beta dimers formed by risk haplotypes, supporting molecular mimicry as the key mechanism of RHD pathogenesis. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Supportability Analysis in LCI Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Dragan Vasiljevic; Ana Horvat

    2013-01-01

    Starting from the basic pillars of the supportability analysis this paper queries its characteristics in LCI (Life Cycle Integration) environment. The research methodology contents a review of modern logistics engineering literature with the objective to collect and synthesize the knowledge relating to standards of supportability design in e-logistics environment. The results show that LCI framework has properties which are in fully compatibility with the requirement of s...

  6. A qualitative analysis exploring preferred methods of peer support to encourage adherence to a Mediterranean diet in a Northern European population at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, Christina M; McEvoy, Claire T; Moore, Sarah E; Prior, Lindsay; Lawton, Julia; Kee, Frank; Cupples, Margaret E; Young, Ian S; Appleton, Katherine; McKinley, Michelle C; Woodside, Jayne V

    2018-02-05

    Epidemiological and randomised controlled trial evidence demonstrates that adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, methods used to support dietary change have been intensive and expensive. Peer support has been suggested as a possible cost-effective method to encourage adherence to a MD in at risk populations, although development of such a programme has not been explored. The purpose of this study was to use mixed-methods to determine the preferred peer support approach to encourage adherence to a MD. Qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative methods (questionnaire and preference scoring sheet) were used to determine preferred methods of peer support. Sixty-seven high CVD risk participants took part in 12 focus groups (60% female, mean age 64 years) and completed a questionnaire and preference scoring sheet. Focus group data were transcribed and thematically analysed. The mean preference score (1 being most preferred and 5 being least preferred) for group support was 1.5, compared to 3.4 for peer mentorship, 4.0 for telephone peer support and 4.0 for internet peer support. Three key themes were identified from the transcripts: 1. Components of an effective peer support group: discussions around group peer support were predominantly positive. It was suggested that an effective group develops from people who consider themselves similar to each other meeting face-to-face, leading to the development of a group identity that embraces trust and honesty. 2. Catalysing Motivation: participants discussed that a group peer support model could facilitate interpersonal motivations including encouragement, competitiveness and accountability. 3. Stepping Stones of Change: participants conceptualised change as a process, and discussed that, throughout the process, different models of peer support might be more or less useful. A group-based approach was the preferred method of peer support to encourage a population at high

  7. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  8. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  9. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  10. Analysis Efforts Supporting NSTX Upgrades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, H.; Titus, P.; Rogoff, P.; Zolfaghari, A.; Mangra, D.; Smith, M.

    2010-01-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) is a low aspect ratio, spherical torus (ST) configuration device which is located at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) This device is presently being updated to enhance its physics by doubling the TF field to 1 Tesla and increasing the plasma current to 2 Mega-amperes. The upgrades include a replacement of the centerstack and addition of a second neutral beam. The upgrade analyses have two missions. The first is to support design of new components, principally the centerstack, the second is to qualify existing NSTX components for higher loads, which will increase by a factor of four. Cost efficiency was a design goal for new equipment qualification, and reanalysis of the existing components. Showing that older components can sustain the increased loads has been a challenging effort in which designs had to be developed that would limit loading on weaker components, and would minimize the extent of modifications needed. Two areas representing this effort have been chosen to describe in more details: analysis of the current distribution in the new TF inner legs, and, second, analysis of the out-of-plane support of the existing TF outer legs.

  11. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Nutrition support in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Korang, Steven Kwasi; Halberg Engell, Kirstine; Nielsen, Marie Skøtt; Zhang, Kang; Didriksen, Maria; Lund, Lisbeth; Lindahl, Niklas; Hallum, Sara; Liang, Ning; Xiong, Wenjing; Yang, Xuemei; Brunsgaard, Pernille; Garioud, Alexandre; Safi, Sanam; Lindschou, Jane; Kondrup, Jens; Gluud, Christian; Jakobsen, Janus C

    2017-05-19

    trials accounted for one-third of all included participants. The included participants were heterogenous with regard to disease (20 different medical specialties). The experimental interventions were parenteral nutrition (86 trials); enteral nutrition (tube-feeding) (80 trials); oral nutrition support (55 trials); mixed experimental intervention (12 trials); general nutrition support (9 trials); and fortified food (2 trials). The control interventions were treatment as usual (122 trials); no intervention (107 trials); and placebo (15 trials). In 204/244 trials, the intervention lasted three days or more.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term mortality (end of intervention). The absolute risk was 8.3% across the control groups compared with 7.8% (7.1% to 8.5%) in the intervention groups, based on the risk ratio (RR) of 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86 to 1.03, P = 0.16, 21,758 participants, 114 trials, low quality of evidence). We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for long-term mortality (maximum follow-up). The absolute risk was 13.2% in the control group compared with 12.2% (11.6% to 13%) following nutritional interventions based on a RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.99, P = 0.03, 23,170 participants, 127 trials, low quality of evidence). Trial Sequential Analysis showed we only had enough information to assess a risk ratio reduction of approximately 10% or more. A risk ratio reduction of 10% or more could be rejected.We found no evidence of a difference between nutrition support and control for short-term serious adverse events. The absolute risk was 9.9% in the control groups versus 9.2% (8.5% to 10%), with nutrition based on the RR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.01, P = 0.07, 22,087 participants, 123 trials, low quality of evidence). At long-term follow-up, the reduction in the risk of serious adverse events was 1.5%, from 15.2% in control groups to 13.8% (12.9% to 14.7%) following

  13. Risk analysis and technology assessment in support of technology development: Putting responsible innovation in practice in a case study for nanotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wezel, Annemarie P; van Lente, Harro; van de Sandt, Johannes Jm; Bouwmeester, Hans; Vandeberg, Rens Lj; Sips, Adrienne Jam

    2018-01-01

    Governments invest in "key enabling technologies," such as nanotechnology, to solve societal challenges and boost the economy. At the same time, governmental agencies demand risk reduction to prohibit any often unknown adverse effects, and industrial parties demand smart approaches to reduce uncertainties. Responsible research and innovation (RRI) is therefore a central theme in policy making. Risk analysis and technology assessment, together referred to as "RATA," can provide a basis to assess human, environmental, and societal risks of new technological developments during the various stages of technological development. This assessment can help both governmental authorities and innovative industry to move forward in a sustainable manner. Here we describe the developed procedures and products and our experiences to bring RATA in practice within a large Dutch nanotechnology consortium. This is an example of how to put responsible innovation in practice as an integrated part of a research program, how to increase awareness of RATA, and how to help technology developers perform and use RATA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:9-16. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

  14. Supporting evidence-based analysis for modified risk tobacco products through a toxicology data-sharing infrastructure [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie Boué

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The US FDA defines modified risk tobacco products (MRTPs as products that aim to reduce harm or the risk of tobacco-related disease associated with commercially marketed tobacco products.  Establishing a product’s potential as an MRTP requires scientific substantiation including toxicity studies and measures of disease risk relative to those of cigarette smoking.  Best practices encourage verification of the data from such studies through sharing and open standards. Building on the experience gained from the OpenTox project, a proof-of-concept database and website (INTERVALS has been developed to share results from both in vivo inhalation studies and in vitro studies conducted by Philip Morris International R&D to assess candidate MRTPs. As datasets are often generated by diverse methods and standards, they need to be traceable, curated, and the methods used well described so that knowledge can be gained using data science principles and tools. The data-management framework described here accounts for the latest standards of data sharing and research reproducibility. Curated data and methods descriptions have been prepared in ISA-Tab format and stored in a database accessible via a search portal on the INTERVALS website. The portal allows users to browse the data by study or mechanism (e.g., inflammation, oxidative stress and obtain information relevant to study design, methods, and the most important results. Given the successful development of the initial infrastructure, the goal is to grow this initiative and establish a public repository for 21st-century preclinical systems toxicology MRTP assessment data and results that supports open data principles.

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  16. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  18. 'RECASS'. Radioecological analysis support system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shershakov, V.

    1998-01-01

    The RECASS is developed as a computer system designed for radiation monitoring and decision-making support in a nuclear emergency. The RECASS system has excellent capabilities for collecting, storing, and presenting data from the radiological situation of contaminated areas. It is well designed for modeling radionuclide migration in the environmental media and for assessing countermeasures in terms of doses received by population groups as a result of radioactive contamination. For RECASS to be used as a basis for solving the problems of radioecological analysis, it is essential that mapping facilities are provided and that scaling capabilities allow data to be presented with the necessary degree of detail and accuracy. Because of the on-line links with the operating network of radiological monitoring, RECASS is capable of collecting meteorological and radiological data from across the country and storing this information in its databases. The availability of data from the network of radiological monitoring makes it possible to develop RECASS as a real-time emergency response system. (R.P.)

  19. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  20. Supporting At-Risk Learners: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    In its final report, the At-risk Working Group, which reported to the Ontario Minister of Education, described at-risk secondary students as performing significantly below the provincial standard, failing to meet curriculum expectations, and being disengaged from school (O'Connor, 2003, p. 5). In this special issue, authors examine this topic,…

  1. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  2. Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; Leoni, de M.; La Rosa, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process

  3. Fatigue risks in the connections of sign support structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    This research effort develops a reliability-based approach for prescribing inspection intervals for mast-arm sign support : structures corresponding to user-specified levels of fatigue-induced fracture risk. The resulting level of risk for a : partic...

  4. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  5. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  6. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  7. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  8. Integrated logistic support analysis system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnicero Iniguez, E.J.; Garcia de la Sen, R.

    1993-01-01

    Integrating logic support into a system results in a large volume of information having to be managed which can only be achieved with the help of computer applications. Both past experience and growing needs in such tasks have led Emperesarios Agrupados to undertake an ambitious development project which is described in this paper. (author)

  9. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  10. Can the surgical checklist reduce the risk of wrong site surgery in orthopaedics? - can the checklist help? Supporting evidence from analysis of a national patient incident reporting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleary Kevin

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Surgical procedures are now very common, with estimates ranging from 4% of the general population having an operation per annum in economically-developing countries; this rising to 8% in economically-developed countries. Whilst these surgical procedures typically result in considerable improvements to health outcomes, it is increasingly appreciated that surgery is a high risk industry. Tools developed in the aviation industry are beginning to be used to minimise the risk of errors in surgery. One such tool is the World Health Organization's (WHO surgery checklist. The National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA manages the largest database of patient safety incidents (PSIs in the world, already having received over three million reports of episodes of care that could or did result in iatrogenic harm. The aim of this study was to estimate how many incidents of wrong site surgery in orthopaedics that have been reported to the NPSA could have been prevented by the WHO surgical checklist. Methods The National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS database was searched between 1st January 2008- 31st December 2008 to identify all incidents classified as wrong site surgery in orthopaedics. These incidents were broken down into the different types of wrong site surgery. A Likert-scale from 1-5 was used to assess the preventability of these cases if the checklist was used. Results 133/316 (42% incidents satisfied the inclusion criteria. A large proportion of cases, 183/316 were misclassified. Furthermore, there were fewer cases of actual harm [9% (12/133] versus 'near-misses' [121/133 (91%]. Subsequent analysis revealed a smaller proportion of 'near-misses' being prevented by the checklist than the proportion of incidents that resulted in actual harm; 18/121 [14.9% (95% CI 8.5 - 21.2%] versus 10/12 [83.3% (95%CI 62.2 - 104.4%] respectively. Summatively, the checklist could have been prevented 28/133 [21.1% (95%CI 14.1 - 28.0%] patient safety

  11. Design analysis of liquid metal pipe supports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margolin, L.L.; LaSalle, F.R.

    1979-02-01

    Design guidelines pertinent to liquid metal pipe supports are presented. The numerous complex conditions affecting the support stiffness and strength are addressed in detail. Topics covered include modeling of supports for natural frequency and stiffness calculations, support hardware components, formulas for deflection due to torsion, plate bending, and out-of-plane flexibility. A sample analysis and a discussion on stress analysis of supports are included. Also presented are recommendations for design improvements for increasing the stiffness of pipe supports and which were utilized in the FFTF system

  12. NRC Support for the Kalinin (VVER) probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, D.; Diamond, D.J.; Chu, T.L.; Azarm, A.; Pratt, W.T.; Johnson, D.; Szukiewicz, A.; Drouin, M.; El-Bassioni, A.; Su, T.M.

    1998-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Nuclear and Radiation Safety Authority of the Russian Federation have been working together since 1994 to carry out a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a VVER-1000 in the Russian Federation. This was a recognition by both parties that this technology has had a profound effect on the discipline of nuclear reactor safety in the West and that the technology should be transferred to others so that it can be applied to Soviet-designed plants. The NRC provided funds from the Agency for International Development and technical support primarily through Brookhaven National Laboratory and its subcontractors. The latter support was carried out through workshops, by documenting the methodology to be used in a set of guides, and through periodic review of the technical activity. The result of this effort to date includes a set of procedure guides, a draft final report on the Level 1 PRA for internal events (excluding internal fires and floods), and progress reports on the fire, flood, and seismic analysis. It is the authors belief that the type of assistance provided by the NRC has been instrumental in assuring a quality product and transferring important technology for use by regulators and operators of Soviet-designed reactors. After a thorough review, the report will be finalized, lessons learned will be applied in the regulatory and operational regimes in the Russian Federation, and consideration will be given to supporting a containment analysis in order to complete a simplified Level 2 PRA

  13. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  14. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  15. Business Management System Support Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Jay

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this research project was to develop a searchable database compiled with internal and external audit findings/observations. The data will correspond to the findings and observations from the date of Center-wide implementation of the ISO 9001-2000 standard to the present (2003-2008). It was derived and extracted from several sources and was in multiple formats. Once extracted, categorization of the findings/observations would be possible. The final data was mapped to the ISO 9001-2000 standard with the understanding that it will be displayed graphically. The data will be used to verify trends, associate risks, and establish timelines to identify strengths and weaknesses to determine areas of improvement in the Kennedy Space Center Business Management System Internal Audit Program.

  16. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  17. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  18. ECRB ALCOVE AND NICHE GROUND SUPPORT ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.W. Keifer

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the analysis is to provide design bases for Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) alcove and niche ground support drawings. The objective is to evaluate the ESF Alcove Ground Support Analysis (Ref 5.1) to determine if the calculations technically bound the ECRB alcoves and to address specific differences in the conditions and constraints

  19. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  20. Support mechanisms for renewables: How risk exposure influences investment incentives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Kitzing

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed-in premium scheme. The effect of differences in risk exposure from the support schemes is significant and cannot be neglected in policy making, especially when deciding between support instruments or when determining adequate support levels.

  1. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  2. A Baseline Historical Analysis of Neck and Back-Related Morbidity in the U.S. Army: Occupational Risks Potentially Related to Head-Supported Mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-09-01

    disorder with myelopathy, unspecified region 722.73 Intervertebral disc disorder w/ myelopathy, lumbar region 721.3 Lumbosacral spondylosis without...Disc disorder, lumbar region 721.42 Spondylosis with myelopathy, lumbar region 724.6 Disorders of sacrum 738.4 Acquired spondylolisthesis...particular, increases risk for spondylosis and accentuates age-related decreases in spinal lordosis(20). In addition to the ballistic protection

  3. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  4. Knowledge, risk, and policy support: Public perceptions of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoutenborough, James W.; Sturgess, Shelbi G.; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear energy was becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to air polluting fossil fuel technologies through the latter half of the 2000s. The tragic events of March 11, 2011 in Fukushima, Japan appear to have instantly killed any momentum the nuclear industry had gained. While unfortunate, many argue that nuclear power is still a safe alternative and that the Fukushima disaster resulted from insufficient safety regulations in Japan, a problem that does not exist in the United States. This project examines U.S. public support for nuclear energy one year after the Fukushima tragedy, seeking to understand the influence of knowledge and risk perceptions on policy support. We evaluate public support for nuclear energy policy from several perspectives using risk and attitudinal measurements that are more specific than often found in the literature to obtain a greater understanding of the connection between policy and risk. -- Highlights: •Paper evaluates US public support for nuclear energy1 year after Fukushima tragedy. •Attitudinal indicators are significant predictors of nuclear power policy support. •People more knowledgeable about energy issues are more supportive of nuclear energy. •Perceptions of risk exert varying influence on support for nuclear power. •Specific attitude and risk indicators permit nuanced insight into their influence

  5. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  6. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  7. QA CLASSIFICATION ANALYSIS OF GROUND SUPPORT SYSTEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. W. Gwyn

    1996-01-01

    The purpose and objective of this analysis is to determine if the permanent function Ground Support Systems (CI: BABEEOOOO) are quality-affecting items and if so, to establish the appropriate Quality Assurance (QA) classification

  8. Social Support and Personal Agency in At-Risk Mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José Rodrigo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated: a mothers´ use and satisfaction with informal and formal supports in at-risk psychosocial contexts, and b the relationships between satisfaction with help and the mothers´ perception of their role (personal agency. Self-report data about the use and satisfaction with sources of help, and levels of internal control, self-efficacy, couple agreement, role difficulty and motivation for change were obtained from 519 mothers referred by Social Services and 519 non-referred mothers. Results indicated that at-risk mothers relied less upon close informal support and more on formal support than non atrisk mothers. They were also more satisfied with the formal sources of support and had lower levels of personal agency. There were beneficial effects of satisfaction with informal help and school support on several aspects of personal agency for both groups. However, satisfaction with school and social services support had a detrimental effect on couple agreement in the at-risk group. Implications of the results for providing social support to at-risk families are discussed.

  9. ESF GROUND SUPPORT - STRUCTURAL STEEL ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Misiak

    1996-06-26

    The purpose and objective of this analysis are to expand the level of detail and confirm member sizes for steel sets included in the Ground Support Design Analysis, Reference 5.20. This analysis also provides bounding values and details and defines critical design attributes for alternative configurations of the steel set. One possible configuration for the steel set is presented. This analysis covers the steel set design for the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) entire Main Loop 25-foot diameter tunnel.

  10. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  11. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  12. Elastic analysis of beam support impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, M.A.; Verma, V.K.; Youtsos, T.G.

    1982-01-01

    The effect of gaps present in the seismic supports of nuclear piping systems has been studied with the use of such large general purpose analysis codes as ANSYS. Exact analytical solutions to two simple beam impact problems are obtained to serve as benchmarks for the evaluation of the ability of such codes to model impact between beam elements and their supports. Bernoulli-Euler beam theory and modal analysis are used to obtain analytical solutions for the motion of simply supported and fixed ended beams after impact with a spring support at midspan. The solutions are valid up to the time the beam loses contact with the spring support. Numerical results are obtained which show that convergence for both contact force and bending moment at the point of impact is slower as spring stiffness is increased. Finite element solutions obtained with ANSYS are compared to analytical results and good agreement is obtained

  13. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for intimate partner violence among Grade 8 learners in urban South Africa: baseline analysis from the Skhokho Supporting Success cluster randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamu, Simukai; Gevers, Anik; Mahlangu, B Pinky; Jama Shai, P Nwabisa; Chirwa, Esnat D; Jewkes, Rachel K

    2016-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a serious public health problem among adolescents. This study investigated the prevalence of and factors associated with Grade 8 girls' experience and boys' perpetration of IPV in South Africa. Participants were interviewed using interviewer-administered questionnaires about IPV, childhood violence, bullying, gender attitudes, alcohol use and risky sexual behaviours. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess factors associated with girls' experience and boys' perpetration of IPV. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was conducted to assess the pathways to IPV experience and perpetration. Results show dating relationships are common among girls (52.5%) and boys (70.7%) and high prevalence of sexual or physical IPV experience by girls (30.9%; 95% CI: 28.2-33.7) and perpetration by boys (39.5%; 95% CI: 36.6-42.3). The logistic regression model showed factors associated with girls' experience of IPV include childhood experience of violence, individual gender inequitable attitudes, corporal punishment at home and in school, alcohol use, wider communication with one's partner and being more negative about school. We found three pathways from childhood trauma to IPV experience and perpetration in both models and these are through inequitable gender attitudes and risky sex, bullying and alcohol use. Prevention of IPV in children needs to encompass prevention of exposure to trauma in childhood and addressing gender attitudes and social norms to encourage positive disciplining approaches. : The trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02349321. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Support Mechanisms for Renewables: How Risk Exposure Influences Investment Incentives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Weber, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed......We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital...

  16. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  17. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  18. Integrating LCA and Risk Assessment for Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks.......The study aims at developing a methodology using decision analysis theory and tools to find the optimal policy (or design) of the studied system, to ensure both sustainability and meanwhile manage risks....

  19. Public support for alcohol policies associated with knowledge of cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buykx, Penny; Gilligan, Conor; Ward, Bernadette; Kippen, Rebecca; Chapman, Kathy

    2015-04-01

    Several options are advocated by policy experts to mitigate alcohol-related harms, although the most effective strategies often have the least public support. While knowledge of tobacco-related health risks predicts support for relevant public health measures, it is not known whether knowledge of alcohol health risks is similarly associated with the acceptability of policies intended to reduce alcohol consumption and related harms. This study aims to gauge public support for a range of alcohol policies and to determine whether or not support is associated with knowledge of a long-term health risk of alcohol consumption, specifically cancer. 2482 adults in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, participated in an online survey. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between demographic data, alcohol consumption, smoking status, knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer and support for alcohol-related policies. Most participants were supportive of health warnings, restricting access to internet alcohol advertising to young people, and requiring information on national drinking guidelines on alcohol containers. Almost half of participants supported a ban on sport sponsorship, while less than 41% supported price increases, volumetric taxation, or reducing the number of retail outlets. Only 47% of participants identified drinking too much alcohol as a risk factor for cancer. Knowledge of alcohol as a risk factor for cancer was a significant predictor of support for all policies, while level of alcohol consumption had a significant inverse relationship with policy support. The finding that support for alcohol management policies is associated with awareness that drinking too much alcohol may contribute to cancer could assist in the planning of future public health interventions. Improving awareness of the long term health risks of alcohol consumption may be one avenue to increasing public support for effective alcohol harm-reduction policies

  20. Simplified piping analysis methods with inelastic supports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.W.; Romanko, A.D.

    1986-01-01

    Energy absorbing supports (EAS) which contain x-shaped plates or dampers with heavy viscous fluid can absorb a large amount of energy during vibratory motions. The response of piping systems supported by these types of energy absorbing devices can be markedly reduced as compared with ordinary supports using rigid rods, hangers or snubbers. In this paper, a simple multiple support response spectrum technique is presented, which would allow the energy dissipation nature of the EAS be factored in the piping response calculation. In the meantime, the effect of lower system frequencies due to the reduced support stiffness from local yielding is also included in the analysis. Numerical results obtained show that this technique is more conservative than the time history solution by an acceptable and realistic margin; and it has less than 10 percent of the computation cost

  1. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  3. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  4. Perceptions of Social Support, Empowerment and Youth Risk Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininger, Belinda M.; Perez, Adriana; Flores, Maria I. Aguirre; Chen, Zhongxue; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the association of perceived social support and community empowerment among urban middle-school students living in Matamoros, Mexico and the risk behaviors of fighting, alcohol and tobacco use, and sexual activity. Middle school students (n = 1,181) from 32 public and private Mexican schools were surveyed. Weighted multiple…

  5. Social network, social support, and risk of incident stroke: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagayoshi, Mako; Everson-Rose, Susan A; Iso, Hiroyasu; Mosley, Thomas H; Rose, Kathryn M; Lutsey, Pamela L

    2014-10-01

    Having a small social network and lack of social support have been associated with incident coronary heart disease; however, epidemiological evidence for incident stroke is limited. We assessed the longitudinal association of a small social network and lack of social support with risk of incident stroke and evaluated whether the association was partly mediated by vital exhaustion and inflammation. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study measured social network and social support in 13 686 men and women (mean, 57 years; 56% women; 24% black; 76% white) without a history of stroke. Social network was assessed by the 10-item Lubben Social Network Scale and social support by a 16-item Interpersonal Support Evaluation List-Short Form. During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, 905 incident strokes occurred. Relative to participants with a large social network, those with a small social network had a higher risk of stroke (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.44 [1.02-2.04]) after adjustment for demographics, socioeconomic variables, marital status, behavioral risk factors, and major stroke risk factors. Vital exhaustion, but not inflammation, partly mediated the association between a small social network and incident stroke. Social support was unrelated to incident stroke. In this sample of US community-dwelling men and women, having a small social network was associated with excess risk of incident stroke. As with other cardiovascular conditions, having a small social network may be associated with a modestly increased risk of incident stroke. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.; Foxx, R. M.; Jacobson, J. W.; Green, G.; Mulick, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    This article reviews the origins and characteristics of the positive behavior support (PBS) movement and examines those features in the context of the field of applied behavior analysis (ABA). We raise a number of concerns about PBS as an approach to delivery of behavioral services and its impact on how ABA is viewed by those in human services. We…

  7. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  8. Risk of dependence associated with health, social support, and lifestyle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcañiz, Manuela; Brugulat, Pilar; Guillén, Montserrat; Medina-Bustos, Antonia; Mompart-Penina, Anna; Solé-Auró, Aïda

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of individuals at risk of dependence and its associated factors. METHODS The study was based on data from the Catalan Health Survey, Spain conducted in 2010 and 2011. Logistic regression models from a random sample of 3,842 individuals aged ≥ 15 years were used to classify individuals according to the state of their personal autonomy. Predictive models were proposed to identify indicators that helped distinguish dependent individuals from those at risk of dependence. Variables on health status, social support, and lifestyles were considered. RESULTS We found that 18.6% of the population presented a risk of dependence, especially after age 65. Compared with this group, individuals who reported dependence (11.0%) had difficulties performing activities of daily living and had to receive support to perform them. Habits such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and being sedentary were associated with a higher probability of dependence, particularly for women. CONCLUSIONS Difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living precede the onset of dependence. Preserving personal autonomy and function without receiving support appear to be a preventive factor. Adopting an active and healthy lifestyle helps reduce the risk of dependence.

  9. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  10. Risk-based analyses in support of California hazardous site remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringland, J.T.

    1995-08-01

    The California Environmental Enterprise (CEE) is a joint program of the Department of Energy (DOE), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Its goal is to make DOE laboratory expertise accessible to hazardous site cleanups in the state This support might involve working directly with parties responsible for individual cleanups or it might involve working with the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop tools that would be applicable across a broad range of sites. As part of its initial year's activities, the CEE supported a review to examine where laboratory risk and risk-based systems analysis capabilities might be most effectively applied. To this end, this study draws the following observations. The labs have a clear role in analyses supporting the demonstration and transfer of laboratory characterization or remediation technologies. The labs may have opportunities in developing broadly applicable analysis tools and computer codes for problems such as site characterization or efficient management of resources. Analysis at individual sites, separate from supporting lab technologies or prototyping general tools, may be appropriate only in limited circumstances. In any of these roles, the labs' capabilities extend beyond health risk assessment to the broader areas of risk management and risk-based systems analysis

  11. Support system for Neutron Activation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasajima, Fumio; Ohtomo, Akitoshi; Sakurai, Fumio; Onizawa, Koji

    1999-01-01

    In the research reactor of JAERI, the Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) has been utilized as a major part of an irradiation usage. To utilize NAA, research participants are always required to learn necessary technique. Therefore, we started to examine a support system that will enable to carry out INAA easily even by beginners. The system is composed of irradiation device, gamma-ray spectrometer and data analyzing instruments. The element concentration is calculated by using KAYZERO/SOLCOI software with the K 0 standardization method. In this paper, we review on a construction of this INAA support system in JRR-3M of JAERI. (author)

  12. Remediation planning and risk assessment support through data fusion technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    Coleman Research's Data Fusion Modeling (DFM) services gives one the ability to use large geophysical and hydrological data sets, which include direct and indirect measurements, to obtain a unified mathematical model of the geology and hydrology at one's site. Coleman Research (CRC) has adapted highly stable and efficient statistical inversion techniques, developed over the past 20 years, to provide a 3D site model with quantified uncertainty based on state-of-the-art modeling codes. This site model supports risk assessment and remediation planning with enhanced numerical accuracy for tradeoff studies of alternate remediation strategies. Further, DFM supports real time model updates during remediation and site investigation

  13. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  14. Intelligent Decision Support System for Bank Loans Risk Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨保安; 马云飞; 俞莲

    2001-01-01

    Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.

  15. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  16. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  17. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  18. Social support for schoolchildren at risk of social exclusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanauskiene V.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Social exclusion is a wider concept than poverty and includes not only material conditions but also inability to participate in economic, social, political and cultural life. The essence of social exclusion is social relationships (more exactly breaking off relationships, which may mean not only pushing away some members of the society, but also breaking off relationships with the society from the side of a person himself/herself. The reasons of origin of social exclusion may be legal, political, economical, social and cultural. Nowadays social exclusion is predetermined by social-economic factors. According to Poviliūnas (2001, the problems of children’s social exclusion may be solved ensuring proper education, care of public health, safety and minimal life standard. Growing aggression and violence of schoolchildren and their social exclusion are nowadays an important issue of political debate and media reports. Often schoolchildren face the risk of social exclusion at school during the period of adolescence. The risk also depends on the social status of their family in the society and the relationship of the family members. The aim of the article is to identify characteristic features of schoolchildren at risk of social exclusion and analyze social support provided for them. A quantitative research was carried out to achieve the aim. The method of data collection is a questionnaire. 105 teachers working in 3 secondary schools in Lithuania participated in the research. The research results revealed that most often schoolchildren face the risk of social exclusion at school during adolescence period. They are characterized as incommunicative, unsociable, passive, and shy, do not trust others, are vulnerable, have learning problems and avoid collaborative activities. These schoolchildren usually come from families of social risk or single parent families. The support provided at school by teachers to schoolchildren at risk of social exclusion

  19. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  20. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  1. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  2. An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

  3. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  4. Licensing Support System: Preliminary data scope analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to determine the content and scope of the Licensing Support System (LSS) data base. Both user needs and currently available data bases that, at least in part, address those needs have been analyzed. This analysis, together with the Preliminary Needs Analysis (DOE, 1988d) is a first effort under the LSS Design and Implementation Contract toward developing a sound requirements foundation for subsequent design work. These reports are preliminary. Further refinements must be made before requirements can be specified in sufficient detail to provide a basis for suitably specific system specifications. This document provides a baseline for what is known at this time. Additional analyses, currently being conducted, will provide more precise information on the content and scope of the LSS data base. 23 refs., 4 figs., 8 tabs

  5. Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Emma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

  6. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  7. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subramanian, Vrishali, E-mail: vrishali.subramanian@unive.it; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy); Malsch, Ineke [Malsch TechnoValuation (Netherlands); McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin [University of Limerick, Kemmy Business School (Ireland); Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom [TNO (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio, E-mail: marcom@unive.it [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy)

    2016-04-15

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  8. Use of safety analysis results to support process operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, I.; Heino, P.

    1990-01-01

    Safety and risk analysis carried out during the design phase of a process plant produces useful knowledge about the behavior and the disturbances of the system. This knowledge, however, often remains to the designer though it would be of benefit to the operators and supervisors of the process plant, too. In Technical Research Centre of Finland a project has been started to plan and construct a prototype of an information system to make use of the analysis knowledge during the operation phase. The project belongs to a Nordic KRM project (Knowledge Based Risk Management System). The information system is planned to base on safety and risk analysis carried out during the design phase and completed with operational experience. The safety analysis includes knowledge about potential disturbances, their causes and consequences in the form of Hazard and Operability Study, faut trees and/or event trees. During the operation disturbances can however, occur, which are not included in the safety analysis, or the causes or consequences of which have been incompletely identified. Thus the information system must also have an interface for the documentation of the operational knowledge missing from the analysis results. The main tasks off the system when supporting the management of a disturbance are to identify it (or the most important of the coexistent ones) from the stored knowledge and to present it in a proper form (for example as a deviation graph). The information system may also be used to transfer knowledge from one shift to another and to train process personnel

  9. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  10. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  11. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  12. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    informed decision support towards decision-makers and stakeholders in terms of accumulated descending graphs. The decision support method developed in this paper aims to provide assistance in the analysis and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding any transport......This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  13. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  14. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  15. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  16. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  17. Risk and uncertainty in the structure of management decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured into five chapters addressing the following subject matters: 1 - The risk descriptor implied by the power systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 - Concepts and operators for describing the nuclear power risk; 1.2 - Risk approach in a holistic conception; 2 - Modelling the risk in the frame of re-engineering concept; 2.1 - Defining and interpreting the power re-engineering; 2.2 - Managerial re-engineering of power production systems; 3 - Informatics system of managing the power objectives with nuclear injection; 3.1 - Informatics systems for risk at the level of CANDU - 600 nuclear plant; 3.2. - Expert function structure applicable to the management of power objectives with nuclear injection; 4 - Assisting support in the operation of nuclear facilities; 4.1 - Assisting support system for nuclear plant operation; 4.2 - Program products for dedicated drivers; 5 - The management decision activities at the level of power systems with nuclear injection; 5.1 - Preliminaries in making power decision; 5.2 - Applications of decision models of sustainable power systems with nuclear injection; 5.3 - Re-engineering of power decision in the frame of maximal utility theory. The successful application of re-engineering concept is based on knowledge and managing capacity of design leadership and its ability of dealing the error generating sources. The main stages of implementing successfully the re-engineering are: - Replacing the pollution processes instead of adjusting measures; - Raising the designer responsibility by radical innovation of processes' architecture; - Re-designing the processes by basic changes at the level of the management functions and structures; - Raising the personnel professionalism by motivation as optimal way of improving the workers mentalities; - Accurate definition of objectives in the frame of re-engineering program; - Application of re-engineering in industrial units starting from the management level; - Selecting as general

  18. Geospatial analysis platform: Supporting strategic spatial analysis and planning

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naude, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Whilst there have been rapid advances in satellite imagery and related fine resolution mapping and web-based interfaces (e.g. Google Earth), the development of capabilities for strategic spatial analysis and planning support has lagged behind...

  19. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

    2016-01-01

    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  20. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  2. Nutrition support in hospitalised adults at nutritional risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil Eik; Korang, Steven Kwasi

    2017-01-01

    International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (www.who.int/ictrp); ClinicalTrials.gov; Turning Research Into Practice (TRIP); Google Scholar; and BIOSIS, as well as relevant bibliographies of review articles and personal files. All searches are current to February 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: We include...... methodology. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, and health-related quality of life. MAIN RESULTS: We included 244 randomised clinical trials with 28,619 participants that met our inclusion criteria. We considered all trials to be at high risk of bias. Two trials accounted...... experimental intervention (12 trials); general nutrition support (9 trials); and fortified food (2 trials). The control interventions were treatment as usual (122 trials); no intervention (107 trials); and placebo (15 trials). In 204/244 trials, the intervention lasted three days or more.We found no evidence...

  3. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  4. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  6. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  7. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  8. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  9. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  10. Information support of monitoring of technical condition of buildings in construction risk area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skachkova, M. E.; Lepihina, O. Y.; Ignatova, V. V.

    2018-05-01

    The paper presents the results of the research devoted to the development of a model of information support of monitoring buildings technical condition; these buildings are located in the construction risk area. As a result of the visual and instrumental survey, as well as the analysis of existing approaches and techniques, attributive and cartographic databases have been created. These databases allow monitoring defects and damages of buildings located in a 30-meter risk area from the object under construction. The classification of structures and defects of these buildings under survey is presented. The functional capabilities of the developed model and the field of it practical applications are determined.

  11. Impact of preoperative nutritional support on clinical outcome in abdominal surgical patients at nutritional risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jie, Bin; Jiang, Zhu-Ming; Nolan, Marie T

    2012-01-01

    This multicenter, prospective cohort study evaluated the effect of preoperative nutritional support in abdominal surgical patients at nutritional risk as defined by the Nutritional Risk Screening Tool 2002 (NRS-2002).......This multicenter, prospective cohort study evaluated the effect of preoperative nutritional support in abdominal surgical patients at nutritional risk as defined by the Nutritional Risk Screening Tool 2002 (NRS-2002)....

  12. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  13. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  14. Moving Forward: Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tincani, Matt

    2007-01-01

    A controversy has emerged about the relationship between positive behavior support and applied behavior analysis. Some behavior analysts suggest that positive behavior support and applied behavior analysis are the same (e.g., Carr & Sidener, 2002). Others argue that positive behavior support is harmful to applied behavior analysis (e.g., Johnston,…

  15. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  16. Clinician support and psychosocial risk factors associated with breastfeeding discontinuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taveras, Elsie M; Capra, Angela M; Braveman, Paula A; Jensvold, Nancy G; Escobar, Gabriel J; Lieu, Tracy A

    2003-07-01

    Breastfeeding rates fall short of goals set in Healthy People 2010 and other national recommendations. The current, national breastfeeding continuation rate of 29% at 6 months lags behind the Healthy People 2010 goal of 50%. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between breastfeeding discontinuation at 2 and 12 weeks postpartum and clinician support, maternal physical and mental health status, workplace issues, and other factors amenable to intervention. A prospective cohort study was conducted of low-risk mothers and infants who were in a health maintenance organization and enrolled in a randomized, controlled trial of home visits. Mothers were interviewed in person at 1 to 2 days postpartum and by telephone at 2 and 12 weeks. Logistic regression modeling was performed to assess the independent effects of the predictors of interest, adjusting for sociodemographic and other confounding variables. Of the 1163 mother-newborn pairs in the cohort, 1007 (87%) initiated breastfeeding, 872 (75%) were breastfeeding at the 2-week interview, and 646 (55%) were breastfeeding at the 12-week interview. In the final multivariate models, breastfeeding discontinuation at 2 weeks was associated with lack of confidence in ability to breastfeed at the 1- to 2-day interview (odds ratio [OR]: 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-7.6), early breastfeeding problems (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-1.97), Asian race/ethnicity (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.1-5.7), and lower maternal education (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-1.9). Mothers were much less likely to discontinue breastfeeding at 12 weeks postpartum if they reported (during the 12-week interview) having received encouragement from their clinician to breastfeed (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). Breastfeeding discontinuation at 12 weeks was also associated with demographic factors and maternal depressive symptoms (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.01-1.37) and returning to work or school by 12 weeks postpartum (OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.8-3.3). Our results indicate

  17. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  18. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  19. Fall Risk, Supports and Services, and Falls Following a Nursing Home Discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noureldin, Marwa; Hass, Zachary; Abrahamson, Kathleen; Arling, Greg

    2017-09-04

    Falls are a major source of morbidity and mortality among older adults; however, little is known regarding fall occurrence during a nursing home (NH) to community transition. This study sought to examine whether the presence of supports and services impacts the relationship between fall-related risk factors and fall occurrence post NH discharge. Participants in the Minnesota Return to Community Initiative who were assisted in achieving a community discharge (N = 1459) comprised the study sample. The main outcome was fall occurrence within 30 days of discharge. Factor analyses were used to estimate latent models from variables of interest. A structural equation model (SEM) was estimated to determine the relationship between the emerging latent variables and falls. Fifteen percent of participants fell within 30 days of NH discharge. Factor analysis of fall-related risk factors produced three latent variables: fall concerns/history; activities of daily living impairments; and use of high-risk medications. A supports/services latent variable also emerged that included caregiver support frequency, medication management assistance, durable medical equipment use, discharge location, and receipt of home health or skilled nursing services. In the SEM model, high-risk medications use and fall concerns/history had direct positive effects on falling. Receiving supports/services did not affect falling directly; however, it reduced the effect of high-risk medication use on falling (p risk of falling post NH discharge. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Knowledge management in support of enterprise risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez, Eduardo; Edwards, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Risk management and knowledge management have so far been studied almost independently. The evolution of risk management to the holistic view of Enterprise Risk Management requires the destruction of barriers between organizational silos and the exchange and application of knowledge from different risk management areas. However, knowledge management has received little or no attention in risk management. This paper examines possible relationships between knowledge management constructs relate...

  1. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  2. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  3. FORMENTOR real-time decision support for risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pennings, R.; Gerlinger, G.; Ponamale, M.

    1995-01-01

    The supervision of complex industrial processes, such as in the chemical, nuclear or aerospace industries, is a difficult task. The FORMENTOR methodology allows the development of supervision support systems to aid operations in their tasks, especially when dealing with perturbations and hazardous situations. A FORMENTOR system presents a synthetic plant-wide view of the current situation, diagnoses the underlying causes of perturbations, predicts possible future evolutions and proposes remedial actions. For this the methodology integrates models, techniques and tools from four domains namely artificial intelligence, safety analysis, real-time computing and ergonomics. The methodological approach provides firm control over the development process while meeting the quality and technical requirements of the client; furthermore it ensures the reliability and maintainability of the obtained system

  4. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  5. Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2013-04-01

    Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from

  6. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  7. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  8. Examining spiritual support among African American and Caucasian Alzheimer's caregivers: A risk and resilience study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks, Scott E; Spurlock, Wanda R; Brown, Sandra C; Teegen, Bettina C; Geiger, Jennifer R

    2018-05-25

    Research shows African Americans at greater risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) compared to the Caucasian population, suggesting African American AD caregivers are rising in numbers at a greater rate than Caucasian counterparts. Over a decade ago, an article in Geriatric Nursing revealed spiritual well-being differences among these caregiver groups. The purpose of this study was a quasi-follow-up, utilizing a larger caregiver sample to test spiritual support as a moderator via a risk-and-resilience framework. Secondary data analysis from a sample of 691 AD caregivers examined data on demographics and standardized measures of spiritual support, caregiver burden, and psychological resilience. One-third of the sample reported as African American. Resilience negatively regressed, though not significantly, on caregiving burden among both groups. Spiritual support positively, significantly impacted resilience among both groups, slightly stronger among African Americans. Spiritual support did not significantly moderate risk with either group. Implications for professional healthcare practice are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Personal support networks, social capital, and risk of relapse among individuals treated for substance use issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panebianco, Daria; Gallupe, Owen; Carrington, Peter J; Colozzi, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    The success of treatment for substance use issues varies with personal and social factors, including the composition and structure of the individual's personal support network. This paper describes the personal support networks and social capital of a sample of Italian adults after long-term residential therapeutic treatment for substance use issues, and analyses network correlates of post-treatment substance use (relapse). Using a social network analysis approach, data were obtained from structured interviews (90-120 min long) with 80 former clients of a large non-governmental therapeutic treatment agency in Italy providing voluntary residential treatments and rehabilitation services for substance use issues. Participants had concluded the program at least six months prior. Data were collected on socio-demographic variables, addiction history, current drug use status (drug-free or relapsed), and the composition and structure of personal support networks. Factors related to risk of relapse were assessed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models. A main goal of this study was to identify differences between the support network profiles of drug free and relapsed participants. Drug free participants had larger, less dense, more heterogeneous and reciprocal support networks, and more brokerage social capital than relapsed participants. Additionally, a lower risk of relapse was associated with higher socio-economic status, being married/cohabiting, and having network members with higher socio-economic status, who have greater occupational heterogeneity, and reciprocate support. Post-treatment relapse was found to be negatively associated with the socioeconomic status and occupational heterogeneity of ego's support network, reciprocity in the ties between ego and network members, and a support network in which the members are relatively loosely connected with one another (i.e., ego possesses "brokerage social capital"). These findings suggest the

  10. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  11. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  12. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  13. Structural Analysis of Cabinet Support under Static and Seismic Loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Kwangsub; Lee, Sangjin; Oh, Jinho

    2014-01-01

    The cabinet support consists of frames including steel channels and steel square tubes. Four tap holes for screw bolts are located on the support frame of a steel channel to fix the cabinet on the support. The channels and square tubes are assembled by welded joints. The cabinet supports are installed on the outer walls of the reactor concrete island. The KEPIC code, MNF, is used for the design of the cabinet support. In this work, the structural integrity of the cabinet support is analyzed under consideration of static and seismic loads. A 3-D finite element model of the cabinet support was developed. The structural integrity of the cabinet support under postulated service loading conditions was evaluated through a static analysis, modal analysis, and response spectrum analysis. From the structural analysis results, it was concluded that the structural integrity of the cabinet support is guaranteed

  14. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  15. Space Launch System Vibration Analysis Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Katie

    2016-01-01

    The ultimate goal for my efforts during this internship was to help prepare for the Space Launch System (SLS) integrated modal test (IMT) with Rodney Rocha. In 2018, the Structural Engineering Loads and Dynamics Team will have 10 days to perform the IMT on the SLS Integrated Launch Vehicle. After that 10 day period, we will have about two months to analyze the test data and determine whether the integrated vehicle modes/frequencies are adequate for launching the vehicle. Because of the time constraints, NASA must have newly developed post-test analysis methods proven well and with technical confidence before testing. NASA civil servants along with help from rotational interns are working with novel techniques developed and applied external to Johnson Space Center (JSC) to uncover issues in applying this technique to much larger scales than ever before. We intend to use modal decoupling methods to separate the entangled vibrations coming from the SLS and its support structure during the IMT. This new approach is still under development. The primary goal of my internship was to learn the basics of structural dynamics and physical vibrations. I was able to accomplish this by working on two experimental test set ups, the Simple Beam and TAURUS-T, and by doing some light analytical and post-processing work. Within the Simple Beam project, my role involves changing the data acquisition system, reconfiguration of the test set up, transducer calibration, data collection, data file recovery, and post-processing analysis. Within the TAURUS-T project, my duties included cataloging and removing the 30+ triaxial accelerometers, coordinating the removal of the structure from the current rolling cart to a sturdy billet for further testing, preparing the accelerometers for remounting, accurately calibrating, mounting, and mapping of all accelerometer channels, and some testing. Hammer and shaker tests will be performed to easily visualize mode shapes at low frequencies. Short

  16. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  17. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  18. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  20. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  1. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  3. Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk

  4. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  5. A Pronoun Analysis of Couples’ Support Transactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinnekens, Céline; Lemmens, Gilbert; Vanhee, Gaëlle; Verhofstadt, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    The present study collected data about couples’ level of relationship quality and their usage of pronouns that express we-ness or separateness in the context of support interactions. The sample consisted of 48 couples in a long-term relationship who provided questionnaire data and participated in two videotaped social support interaction tasks. Couples’ videotaped interactions were subsequently coded for the number of personal pronouns—we-words (e.g., we, ours, ourselves) versus you and me-words (e.g., me, mine, you, yours)—used by both partners. PMID:26869976

  6. A Pronoun Analysis of Couples' Support Transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinnekens, Céline; Lemmens, Gilbert; Vanhee, Gaëlle; Verhofstadt, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    The present study collected data about couples' level of relationship quality and their usage of pronouns that express we-ness or separateness in the context of support interactions. The sample consisted of 48 couples in a long-term relationship who provided questionnaire data and participated in two videotaped social support interaction tasks. Couples' videotaped interactions were subsequently coded for the number of personal pronouns-we-words (e.g., we, ours, ourselves) versus you and me-words (e.g., me, mine, you, yours)-used by both partners.

  7. Supporting Space Systems Design via Systems Dependency Analysis Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guariniello, Cesare

    assess the behavior of each system based on its internal status and on the topology of its dependencies on systems connected to it. Designers and decision makers can therefore quickly analyze and explore the behavior of complex systems and evaluate different architectures under various working conditions. The methods support educated decision making both in the design and in the update process of systems architecture, reducing the need to execute extensive simulations. In particular, in the phase of concept generation and selection, the information given by the methods can be used to identify promising architectures to be further tested and improved, while discarding architectures that do not show the required level of global features. The methods, when used in conjunction with appropriate metrics, also allow for improved reliability and risk analysis, as well as for automatic scheduling and re-scheduling based on the features of the dependencies and on the accepted level of risk. This dissertation illustrates the use of the two methods in sample aerospace applications, both in the operational and in the developmental domain. The applications show how to use the developed methodology to evaluate the impact of failures, assess the criticality of systems, quantify metrics of interest, quantify the impact of delays, support informed decision making when scheduling the development of systems and evaluate the achievement of partial capabilities. A larger, well-framed case study illustrates how the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis method and the Systems Developmental Dependency Analysis method can support analysis and decision making, at the mid and high level, in the design process of architectures for the exploration of Mars. The case study also shows how the methods do not replace the classical systems engineering methodologies, but support and improve them.

  8. A Lexical Analysis Tool with Ambiguity Support

    OpenAIRE

    Quesada, Luis; Berzal, Fernando; Cortijo, Francisco J.

    2012-01-01

    Lexical ambiguities naturally arise in languages. We present Lamb, a lexical analyzer that produces a lexical analysis graph describing all the possible sequences of tokens that can be found within the input string. Parsers can process such lexical analysis graphs and discard any sequence of tokens that does not produce a valid syntactic sentence, therefore performing, together with Lamb, a context-sensitive lexical analysis in lexically-ambiguous language specifications.

  9. A System Supporting the Analysis of Motorway Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Anghinolfi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a business intelligence tool for monitoring traffic accidents on motorways and supporting decisions relevant to road safety. The system manages information on road characteristics, traffic accidents and traffic volumes and produces reports for monitoring the evolution of key performance indicators for road safety, supporting decisions on actions for risk mitigation and safety improvements for road users. The paper illustrates the different types of analyses performed by the system. Pattern based analysis is used to evaluate safety performance indicators for the road sections matching defined patterns. Two different road segmentation algorithms, used to identify the most critical road sections according to various severity indicators, are presented and discussed. Differential analysis compares the value of selected severity indicators before and after the implementation of an intervention on a road. Finally, a graphical user interface allows the accident locations to be visualized and accidents with specific characteristics to be highlighted. The system was evaluated on the data collected between 2009 and 2011 for the A15 motorway in Italy, connecting Parma to La Spezia.

  10. BUSTED BUTTE TEST FACILITY GROUND SUPPORT CONFIRMATION ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonabian, S.

    1998-01-01

    The main purpose and objective of this analysis is to confirm the validity of the ground support design for Busted Butte Test Facility (BBTF). The highwall stability and adequacy of highwall and tunnel ground support is addressed in this analysis. The design of the BBTF including the ground support system was performed in a separate document (Reference 5.3). Both in situ and seismic loads are considered in the evaluation of the highwall and the tunnel ground support system. In this analysis only the ground support designed in Reference 5.3 is addressed. The additional ground support installed (still work in progress) by the constructor is not addressed in this analysis. This additional ground support was evaluated by the A/E during a site visit and its findings and recommendations are addressed in this analysis

  11. A SWOT analysis of Planning Support Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonk, G.; Geertman, S.; Schot, P.P.

    2007-01-01

    Insight into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of planning support systems (PSS) is fragmented between users and system developers. The lack of combined insights blocks development in the right direction and makes potential users hesitant to apply PSS in planning. This

  12. Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Podger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources – maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009 have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

  13. The American Petroleum Institute's Decision Support System for performing exposure and risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, L.R.

    1994-01-01

    The author has developed the American Petroleum Institute's (API) Exposure and Risk Assessment Decision Support System (DSS) to assist environmental professionals in estimating human exposure and risk from sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The DSS is a valuable, user-friendly tool that can be used to (1) estimate site-specific risks, (2) identify the need for site remediation, (3) develop and negotiate site-specific cleanup levels with regulatory agencies, and (4) efficiently and effectively evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and variability on estimated risk. API DSS Version 1.0 consists of four modules. Specifically, the Development of Risk Scenario module allows the user to develop a conceptual model for estimating the risk. The Fate and Transport module includes a number of contaminant fate and transport models to estimate receptor point concentrations using site-specific hydrogeological and meteorological data entered by the user. The Chemical Intake and Risk Calculation module uses estimated or user-entered receptor point concentrations to estimate chemical intake by a human receptor for several different exposure routes. Finally, the Risk Presentation module allows the user to view the results of the analysis in tabular and graphical formats. The DSS includes chemical databases for 25 hydrocarbons containing transport and toxicity information. These databases may be expanded to include many additional (non-hydrocarbon) chemicals. The computational modules of the DSS can be implemented in either a deterministic or a Monte Carlo simulation mode. The latter is used to quantify the uncertainty in the exposure and risk results due to uncertainty in the input parameters

  14. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  15. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  16. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  17. Derivation of endogenous equivalent values to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for an endogenous carcinogen: Ethylene oxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C R; Hays, S M

    2017-12-01

    An approach is presented for ethylene oxide (EO) to derive endogenous equivalent (EE) values, which are endogenous levels normally found within the body expressed in terms of exogenous exposures. EE values can be used to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for chemicals such as EO that have both endogenous and exogenous exposure pathways. EE values were derived using a meta-analysis of data from the published literature characterizing the distribution for an EO biomarker of exposure, hemoglobin N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-valine (HEV), in unexposed populations. These levels are compared to the those reported in exposed populations (smokers, workers). Correlation between the biomarker of exposure and external exposures of EO were applied to this distribution to determine corresponding EE values, which range from 0.13 to 6.9 ppb for EO in air. These values are orders of magnitude higher than risk-based concentration values derived for EO using default methods, and are provided as a pragmatic, data-driven alternative approach to managing the potential risks from exogenous exposures to EO. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Protective effects of self-esteem and family support on suicide risk behaviors among at-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharaf, Amira Y; Thompson, Elaine A; Walsh, Elaine

    2009-08-01

    If and how family support and self-esteem might interact to protect against adolescent suicide risk is not well understood. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the moderating effect of family support on the relationship between self-esteem and suicide risk behaviors among potential high school dropouts (N = 849), using questionnaires and in-depth assessment interviews. Family support moderated the impact of self-esteem on suicide risk; the ameliorating effect of self-esteem was stronger among adolescents with low versus high family support. Self-esteem influences adolescent suicide risk behaviors for youth with low as well as high family support. Interventions designed to strengthen both self-esteem and support resources are appropriate.

  19. Screening of Nutritional Risk and Nutritional Support in General Surgery Patients: A Survey from Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhen-Yi; Yang, Jun; Tong, Da-Nian; Peng, Jia-Yuan; Zhang, Zhong-Wei; Liu, Wei-Jie; Xia, Yang; Qin, Huan-long

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prevalence of nutritional risk in surgical departments and to evaluate the impact of nutritional support on clinical outcomes. The nutritional risk in different surgical diseases and the different way of nutritional support on clinical outcomes in patients at nutritional risk remain unclear. Hospitalized patients from general surgical departments were screened using the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 questionnaire on admission. Data were collected on nutritional risk, complications, and length of stay (LOS). Overall, 5034 patients were recruited; the overall prevalence of nutritional risk on admission were 19.2%. The highest prevalence was found among patients with gastric cancer. At-risk patients had more complications and longer LOS than nonrisk patients. Of the at-risk patients, the complication rate was significantly lower and LOS was significantly shorter in the nutritional-support group than in the no-support group (20.9 versus 30.0%, P nutrition or who received support for 5 to 7 days, or daily support entailing 16 to 25 kcal/kg of nonprotein energy. Different surgical diseases have different levels of nutritional risk. The provision of nutritional support was associated with a lower complication rate and a shorter LOS for gastric, colorectal, and HPB cancer patients at nutritional risk. The improper use of nutritional support may not improve outcomes for at-risk patients. PMID:26011204

  20. A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

  1. The moderating role of social support on the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleiman, Evan M; Riskind, John H; Schaefer, Karen E; Weingarden, Hilary

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is the second leading cause of death among college students. There has been considerable research into risk factors for suicide, such as impulsivity, but considerably less research on protective factors. The present study examines the role that social support plays in the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk. Participants were 169 undergraduates who completed self-report measures of impulsivity and social support. Suicide risk was assessed using an interview measure. Social support moderates the relationship between impulsivity and suicide risk, such that those who are highly impulsive are less likely to be at risk for suicide if they also have high levels of social support. Social support can be a useful buffer to suicide risk for at-risk individuals who are highly impulsive.

  2. NanoRisk - A Conceptual Decision Support Tool for Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders; Alstrup Jensen, K.

    2011-01-01

    Only a few risk assessment methodologies and approaches are useful for assessing the risk for professional end-users, consumers and the environment. We have developed a generic framework (NanoRiskCat) that can be used by companies and risk assessors to categorize nanomaterials considering existing...... environmental, health and safety information and known uncertainties. In NanoRiskCat’s simplest form, the final evaluation outcome for a specific nanomaterial in a given application will be communicated in the form of a short title (e.g. TiO2 in sunscreen) describing the use of the nanomaterial. This short...... to the exposure and hazard potential are green , yellow corresponding to none, possible, expected and unknown, respectively. The exposure potential was evaluated based on 1) the location of the nanomaterial and 2) a judgment of the potential of nanomaterial exposure based on the description and explanation...

  3. Computerised Genetic Risk Assessment and Decision Support in Primary Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Coulson

    2000-09-01

    To address these issues, a new computer application called RAGs (Risk Assessment in Genetics has been designed. The system allows a doctor to create family trees and assess genetic risk of breast cancer. RAGs possesses two features that distinguish it from similar software: (a a user-centred design, which takes into account the requirements of the doctor-patient encounter; (b risk reporting using qualitative evidence for or against an increased risk, which the authors believe to be more useful and accessible than numerical probabilities are. In that the system allows for any genetic risk guideline to be implemented, it can be used with all diseases for which evaluation guidelines exist. The software may be easily modified to cater for the amount of detail required by different specialists.

  4. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  5. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  6. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  7. Tool Supported Analysis of Web Services Protocols

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marques, Abinoam P.; Ravn, Anders Peter; Srba, Jiri

    2011-01-01

    We describe an abstract protocol model suitable for modelling of web services and other protocols communicating via unreliable, asynchronous communication channels. The model is supported by a tool chain where the first step translates tables with state/transition protocol descriptions, often used...... e.g. in the design of web services protocols, into an intermediate XML format. We further translate this format into a network of communicating state machines directly suitable for verification in the model checking tool UPPAAL. We introduce two types of communication media abstractions in order...

  8. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Geographical data structures supporting regional analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, R.G.; Durfee, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    In recent years the computer has become a valuable aid in solving regional environmental problems. Over a hundred different geographic information systems have been developed to digitize, store, analyze, and display spatially distributed data. One important aspect of these systems is the data structure (e.g. grids, polygons, segments) used to model the environment being studied. This paper presents eight common geographic data structures and their use in studies of coal resources, power plant siting, population distributions, LANDSAT imagery analysis, and landuse analysis

  10. Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS: a randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenyon Sara

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK. Method/Design The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service. The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation until 6 weeks after birth. The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools. A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will

  11. Aggregate exposure pathways in support of risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluating multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand...

  12. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  13. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  14. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  15. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  16. Seismic analysis of piping with nonlinear supports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barta, D.A.; Huang, S.N.; Severud, L.K.

    1980-01-01

    The modeling and results of nonlinear time-history seismic analyses for three sizes of pipelines restrained by mechanical snubbes are presented. Numerous parametric analyses were conducted to obtain sensitivity information which identifies relative importance of the model and analysis ingredients. Special considerations for modeling the pipe clamps and the mechanical snubbers based on experimental characterization data are discussed. Comparisions are also given of seismic responses, loads and pipe stresses predicted by standard response spectra methods and the nonlinear time-history methods

  17. "Homeland Defense: At Risk as a Result of Civil Support?"

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brickhouse, Tonja

    2003-01-01

    This research effort is an attempt by the author to examine the broad area of military support to civil authorities and the potential for a significant demand on Department of Defense (DoD) resources...

  18. Handling risk attitudes for preference learning and intelligent decision support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franco de los Ríos, Camilo; Hougaard, Jens Leth; Nielsen, Kurt

    2015-01-01

    Intelligent decision support should allow integrating human knowledge with efficient algorithms for making interpretable and useful recommendations on real world decision problems. Attitudes and preferences articulate and come together under a decision process that should be explicitly modeled...

  19. Coopetition as Support Strategy for Supply Chain Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Batista de Camargo Junior

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As supply chain management research and its adoption advance, new challenges are imposed for researchers and managers. Accordingly, the supply chain risk management (SCRM has been a prominent field because it suggests strategies and action plans to mitigate these risks. On the other hand, it is observed that the coopetition concept advocates that two competing organizations can work together in some activities in the form of a strategic alliance, contributing to achieve maximum efficiency. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to propose the extension of this concept into the activities of SCRM, treating coopetition as an action that can be added to the risk management efforts in order to make supply chains more resilient. Thus, through an exploratory literature search that uses secondary data, we drawn two propositions that deal with the possibility of adding a coopetitor to reduce risks in supply chains and on the feasibility of balanced coopetition changes the profile of a supply chain to a resilient model. Although these propositions require further empirical verification, it is believed that this is a good start for discussions about the benefits and competitive advantages that the adoption of coopetition in risk management activities in supply chains can bring to organizations.

  20. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  1. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  2. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  3. Climatology in support of climate risk management : a progress report.

    OpenAIRE

    McGregor, G.R.

    2015-01-01

    Climate risk management has emerged over the last decade as a distinct area of activity within the wider field of climatology. Its focus is on integrating climate and non-climate information in order to enhance the decision-making process in a wide range of climate-sensitive sectors of society, the economy and the environment. Given the burgeoning pure and applied climate science literature that addresses a range of climate risks, the purpose of this progress report is to provide an overview ...

  4. A fuzzy logic decision support system for assessing clinical nutritional risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammad Hadianfard

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Studies have indicated a global high prevalence of hospital malnutrition on admission and during hospitalization. Clinical Nutritional Risk Screen (CNRS is a way to identify malnutrition and manage nutritional interventions. Several traditional and non-computer based tools have been suggested for screening nutritional risk levels. The present study was an attempt to employ a computer based fuzzy model decision support system as a nutrition-screening tool for inpatients. Method: This is an applied modeling study. The system architecture was designed based on the fuzzy logic model including input data, inference engine, and output. A clinical nutritionist entered nineteen input variables using a windows-based graphical user interface. The inference engine was involved with knowledge obtained from literature and the construction of ‘IF-THEN’ rules. The output of the system was stratification of patients into four risk levels from ‘No’ to ‘High’ where a number was also allocated to them as a nutritional risk grade. All patients (121 people admitted during implementing the system participated in testing the model. The classification tests were used to measure the CNRS fuzzy model performance. IBM SPSS version 21 was utilized as a tool for data analysis with α = 0.05 as a significance level. Results: Results showed that sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and precision of the fuzzy model performance were 91.67% (±4.92, 76% (±7.6, 88.43% (±5.7, and 93.62% (±4.32, respectively. Instant performance on admission and very low probability of mistake in predicting malnutrition risk level may justify using the model in hospitals. Conclusion: To conclude, the fuzzy model-screening tool is based on multiple nutritional risk factors, having the capability of classifying inpatients into several nutritional risk levels and identifying the level of required nutritional intervention.

  5. Does Organizational and Coworker Support Moderate Diabetes Risk and Job Stress Among Employees?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Marilyn B; Gay, Jennifer L; Wilson, Mark G; DeJoy, David M; Vandenberg, Robert J

    2018-05-01

    Examine the moderating role of perceived organizational and coworker support on the relationship between job stress and type 2 diabetes risk among employees. A cross-sectional survey was administered to employees at the workplace. One national retail organization. Baseline data were obtained from 1595 employees in 21 retail stores. Self-reported organizational and coworker support to encourage and fulfill job responsibilities and job stress. Diabetes risk was calculated using age, gender, race/ethnicity, blood pressure, physical activity, weight status, and self-reported diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Multilevel multiple regression was conducted to test the interaction effect of support on the association between job stress and diabetes risk. Mean age was 37.95 years (±12.03) and body mass index was 26.72 (±4.95). Three percent of participants reported diagnosed diabetes. Organizational support was positively associated with coworker support. Both were negatively associated with job stress. Organizational support, but not coworker support, moderated the relationship of job stress with diabetes risk. Participants with greater perceived organizational support had lower diabetes risk scores compared to those with lower perceived organizational support. Organizational support may be a key factor for workplaces to reduce stress and diabetes risk. Further testing of organizations' supportive role on employee health may be helpful in developing future workplace programs.

  6. Responding to and Supporting Students with Disabilities: Risk Management Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundquist, Anne; Shackelford, Allan

    2011-01-01

    Making the "right" risk management decisions involving students with significant psychological disabilities requires a clear and comprehensive understanding of the legal obligations and duties at issue. It also requires taking into consideration the best interests of these individual students. At the same time, decision makers must focus…

  7. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  8. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  9. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  10. Facility Safeguardability Analysis In Support of Safeguards-by-Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philip Casey Durst; Roald Wigeland; Robert Bari; Trond Bjornard; John Hockert; Michael Zentner

    2010-07-01

    The following report proposes the use of Facility Safeguardability Analysis (FSA) to: i) compare and evaluate nuclear safeguards measures, ii) optimize the prospective facility safeguards approach, iii) objectively and analytically evaluate nuclear facility safeguardability, and iv) evaluate and optimize barriers within the facility and process design to minimize the risk of diversion and theft of nuclear material. As proposed by the authors, Facility Safeguardability Analysis would be used by the Facility Designer and/or Project Design Team during the design and construction of the nuclear facility to evaluate and optimize the facility safeguards approach and design of the safeguards system. Through a process of “Safeguards-by-Design” (SBD), this would be done at the earliest stages of project conceptual design and would involve domestic and international nuclear regulators and authorities, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The benefits of the Safeguards-by-Design approach is that it would clarify at a very early stage the international and domestic safeguards requirements for the Construction Project Team, and the best design and operating practices for meeting these requirements. It would also minimize the risk to the construction project, in terms of cost overruns or delays, which might otherwise occur if the nuclear safeguards measures are not incorporated into the facility design at an early stage. Incorporating nuclear safeguards measures is straight forward for nuclear facilities of existing design, but becomes more challenging with new designs and more complex nuclear facilities. For this reason, the facility designer and Project Design Team require an analytical tool for comparing safeguards measures, options, and approaches, and for evaluating the “safeguardability” of the facility. The report explains how preliminary diversion path analysis and the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PRPP) evaluation

  11. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  12. APT/LEDA RFQ and support frame structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, S.

    1997-01-01

    This report documents structural analysis of the Accelerator Production of Tritium Low Energy Demonstration Accelerator (APT/LEDA) Radio Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ) accelerator structure and its associated support frame. This work was conducted for the Department of Energy in support of the APT/LEDA. Structural analysis of the RFQ was performed to quantify stress levels and deflections due to both vacuum loading and gravity loading. This analysis also verified the proposed support scheme geometry and quantified interface loads. This analysis also determined the necessary stiffness and strength requirements of the RFQ support frame verifying the conceptual design geometry and allowing specification of individual frame elements. Complete structural analysis of the frame was completed subsequently. This report details structural analysis of the RFQ assembly with regard to gravity and vacuum loads only. Thermally induced stresses from the Radio Frequency (RF) surface resistance heating were not considered

  13. Risk, security and technology: governing football supporters in the twenty-first century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spaaij, R.

    2013-01-01

    This paper critically examines the security and risk management technologies that are being used to conduct and pre-empt the behaviour of football supporters. It is shown how, in the Netherlands, pre-emptive risk management in the governing of football supporters involves a dispersed and fragmented

  14. Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)

  15. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  17. Creating Efficient Instrumentation Networks to Support Parametric Risk Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockett, P.

    2009-04-01

    The development and institutionalisation of Catastrophe modelling during the 1990s opened the way for Catastrophe risk securitization transactions in which catastrophe risk held by insurers is transferred to the capital markets in the form of a bond. Cat Bonds have been one of the few areas of the capital markets in which the risk modelling has remained secure and the returns on the bonds have held up well through the 2008 Credit Crunch. There are three ways of structuring the loss triggers on bonds: ‘indemnity triggers' - reflecting the actual losses to the issuers; ‘index triggers' reflecting the losses to some index such as reported insurance industry loss and ‘parametric triggers' reflecting the parameters of the underlying catastrophe event itself. Indemnity triggers require that the investors trust that the insurer is reporting all their underlying exposures, while both indemnity and index losses may take 1-2 years to settle before all the claims are reported and resolved. Therefore parametric structures have many advantages, in particular in that the bond can be settled rapidly after an event. The challenge is to create parametric indices that closely reflect the actual losses to the insurer - ie that minimise ‘basis risk'. First generation parametric indices had high basis risk as they were crudely based on the magnitude of an earthquake occurring within some defined geographical box, or the intensity of a hurricane relative to the distance of the storm from some location. Second generation triggers involve taking measurements of ground motion or windspeed or flood depths at many locations and weighting each value so that the overall index closely mimics insurance loss. Cat bonds with second generation parametric triggers have been successfully issued for European Windstorm, UK Flood and California and Japan Earthquake. However the spread of second generation parametric structures is limited by the availability of suitable networks of

  18. Supporting At-Risk Learners at a Comprehensive University in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It addresses the issue that many students who arrive at university lack the ... the work of the academic support and learning development units in higher education ... Results in both the PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) .... but also about “adjustments to a learning environment that requires greater ...

  19. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  20. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  1. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  2. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Decision support systems for cyber-risk supervision in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Košak, Matjaž

    2016-01-01

    Cyber risk has been increasing due to fast development of information technology, increased using of smart gadgets, advanced way of communication, changing habits of users, and inventiveness of cyber criminals. Nowadays, cyber criminals are highly motivated professionals who are frequently financed by wealthy criminal organizations, or even states, and have clear goals and strategies. False working of critical systems might have important consequences for the whole society, therefore the ...

  4. Ergonomics Risk Assessment among support staff in Universiti Malaysia Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Faisal; Nafis Osman Zahid, Muhammed

    2018-03-01

    Awareness of ergonomic risk assessment among workers are getting intense in many industries nowadays. It is essential since most of the workers spend 7 to 8 hours of their time in the workplaces. Previous study shown that spending too much time with static posture in sitting at workplace leads to the problem of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). The implications are not only harmful to human body but also effect the productivity. Currently, there are no scientific study conducted to assess the conditions of workers in Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP). Therefore, the problem of MSDs could not be justified clearly and the top management did not acknowledge this issue. This study aims to present current scenario of ergonomic risk level at UMP by using structured model. It focuses on operational staff from faculties and Human Resources Department (HRD). Initially, three types of assessments are executed based on general working condition, Cornell Muscokeletal Discomfort Questionnaire (CMDQ) and Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA). Based on the findings, 90% of the respondents felt discomfort at workplace but prefer to rectify the issues by themselves. Almost 50% of them evaluated themselves in level 4-5 of discomfort level. The CMDQ result shown the discomfort area at faculties and HRD. The workplace at faculties and HRD had been assessed through ROSA and the overall result shown the risk level is medium level respectively. Therefore, further investigation is requires and improvement of workplace need to be proposed to establish good working condition.

  5. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  6. Empirical study of ill-supported activities in variation risk identification and assessment in early stage product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Kristian; Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Ebro, Martin

    2017-01-01

    medical device company by interviewing six key employees that work in the variation risk identification and assessment process. It is found that there are several ill-supported activities, and that the project teams rely heavily on tolerance experts’ assistance and experience in order to identify...... and assess the variation risk. Ill-supported activities are found to be: Balancing hardness of requirements and the screening; communicating mechanism understanding; predicting user input and internal component movement; documenting and communicating tolerance analysis; implementing robustness in the early...

  7. A decision support system for corporations cyber security risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Molina, Gabriela del Rocio Roldan

    2017-01-01

    This thesis presents a decision aiding system named C3-SEC (Contex-aware Corporative Cyber Security), developed in the context of a master program at Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Portugal. The research dimension and the corresponding software development process that followed are presented and validated with an application scenario and case study performed at Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE – Ecuador. C3-SEC is a decision aiding software intended to support cyber ri...

  8. Maternal adverse childhood experiences and antepartum risks: the moderating role of social support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racine, Nicole; Madigan, Sheri; Plamondon, Andre; Hetherington, Erin; McDonald, Sheila; Tough, Suzanne

    2018-03-28

    The aims of the current study were to examine the association between maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and antepartum health risks, and to investigate whether social support moderated this association. It was hypothesized that ACEs would be associated with antepartum health risks; however, social support in the prenatal period would buffer mothers from the deleterious consequences of ACEs. Data from 1994 women (mean age = 31 years) and their infants were collected from a longitudinal cohort recruited in health care offices in Alberta, Canada. Pregnant women completed questionnaires related to ACEs prior to the age of 18 and prenatal social support, and a health care professional assessed the mother's antepartum health risk. ACEs included physical, emotional, and sexual abuse, exposure to domestic violence, as well as exposure to household dysfunction such as parental substance use, mental illness, or incarceration. Regression analyses demonstrated a positive association between ACEs and antepartum health risks. However, a significant interaction between maternal ACEs and social support was also observed. Specifically, women exposed to high ACEs and low social support in pregnancy had high antepartum health risks. However, among mothers who had high ACEs but also high levels of social support, there was no association between ACEs and antepartum health risk. A history of ACEs can place mothers at risk of antepartum health complications. However, a resiliency effect was observed: women with a history of ACEs were buffered from experiencing antepartum health risks if they reported high levels of social support in pregnancy.

  9. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  10. Social Support Networks and HIV/STI Risk Behaviors Among Latino Immigrants in a New Receiving Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althoff, Meghan D; Theall, Katherine; Schmidt, Norine; Hembling, John; Gebrekristos, Hirut T; Thompson, Michelle M; Muth, Stephen Q; Friedman, Samuel R; Kissinger, Patricia

    2017-12-01

    The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe the quantity and quality of social support networks of Latino immigrants living in a new receiving environment, and (2) determine the role such networks play in their HIV/STI risk behaviors, including substance use. Double incentivized convenience sampling was used to collect egocentric social support network data on 144 Latino immigrants. Latent class analysis was used for data reduction and to identify items best suited to measure quality and quantity of social support. Moderate and high quantity and quality of social support were protective of HIV/STI sexual risk behavior compared to low quantity and quality of support, after adjustment for gender, years in New Orleans and residing with family. Neither measure of social support was associated with binge drinking. The findings suggest that increased quantity and quality of social support decrease HIV/STI sexual risk behaviors but do not influence binge drinking. Interventions that improve the quantity and quality of social support are needed for Latino immigrants.

  11. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  12. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  13. Support analysis for safety analysis development for CANDU nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedreaga, L.; Florescu, Gh.; Apostol, M.; Nitoi, M.

    2004-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment analysis (PSA) is a technique used to assess the safety of a nuclear power plant. Assessments of the nuclear plant systems/components from safety point of view consist in accomplishment of a lot of support analyses that are the base for the main analysis, in order to evaluate the impact of occurrences of abnormal states for these systems. Evaluation of initiating events frequency and components failure rate is based on underlying probabilistic theory and mathematic statistics. Some of these analyses are detailed analyses and are known very well in PSA. There are also some analyses, named support analyses for PSA, which are very important but less applicable because they involve a huge human effort and hardware facilities to accomplish. The usual methods applicable in PSA such as input data extracted from the specific documentation (operation procedures, testing procedures, maintenance procedures and so on) or conservative evaluation provide a high level of uncertainty for both input and output data. The paper describes support analysis required to improve the certainty level in evaluation of reliability parameters and also in the final results (either risk, reliability or safety assessment). (author)

  14. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

  15. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

    2011-06-01

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

  16. Youth at risk of physical inactivity may benefit more from activity-related support than youth not at risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmalz Dorothy L

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Background This study examines whether associations between activity-related support and adolescents' physical activity differ for adolescents at high versus low risk of physical inactivity. Methods: Participants included 202 middle-school-aged girls (N = 92 and boys (N = 110. Physical activity was assessed using three self-report questionnaires. Activity-related support from mothers, fathers, siblings, and peers was assessed using the Activity Support Scale. Perceived sport competence was assessed using the Physical Activity Self Description Questionnaire. Participants' height and weight were measured and used to calculate their age- and sex-adjusted Body Mass Index percentile. Participants were classified as being at high risk for physical inactivity if they fulfilled two of the following three criteria: (1 overweight; (2 female; or (3 having low perceived sport competence. Results: Activity-related support from all sources was associated with higher levels of physical activity among adolescents. A stronger association between activity support and physical activity was found for adolescents at high risk for physical inactivity in comparison to adolescents at low risk. Conclusions: Findings from this study suggest that the activity-related support from family and friends may be an effective tool in promoting physical activity among youth at risk of physical inactivity.

  17. Strength analysis of PGV-1000M steam generator support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubik, Ya.R.; Ageev, S.M.; Orynyak, I.V.; Vasilchenko, B.M.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents the design of PGV-1000M steam generator support. It is shown that the load in the rolling support is distributed extremely unevenly, which is associated with the compliance of the support construction. It is demonstrated that under working loads only several rollers are used, the stresses in which exceed the yield strength. This can be an additional loading factor to be considered in the analysis of welding No. 111 failure.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment and intelligent decision support systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, J.S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the progress made in recent years in both the area of PRA as a support to AI applications and the area of AI applications in PRA. The emphasis is on the areas that have made some progress in the past few years, with a brief description of the methods and a discussion of the potential uses and weaknesses. Also included is a brief review of recent developments in the theory of uncertainty in the AI community that may impact uncertainty modeling in PRA. AI techniques could be applied to the related field of PRA in several ways. In this discussion, however, the scope is limited to emergency diagnosis and accident management, because these are the areas that have attracted most of the attention in recent years. The potential use of PRA as a support to these applications is discussed in detail, and this is followed by a survey of recent developments in these areas. (orig./GL)

  19. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  20. Analysis and Assessment of Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning Conversations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trausan-Matu, Stefan

    2008-01-01

    Trausan-Matu, S. (2008). Analysis and Assessment of Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning Conversations. Workshop presentation at the symposium Learning networks for professional. November, 14, 2008, Heerlen, Nederland: Open Universiteit Nederland.

  1. A generic rabies risk assessment tool to support surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Michael P; Hernández-Jover, Marta

    2015-06-01

    The continued spread of rabies in Indonesia poses a risk to human and animal populations in the remaining free islands, as well as the neighbouring rabies-free countries of Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Here we describe the development of a generic risk assessment tool which can be used to rapidly determine the vulnerability of rabies-free islands, so that scarce resources can be targeted to surveillance activities and the sensitivity of surveillance systems increased. The tool was developed by integrating information on the historical spread of rabies, anthropological studies, and the opinions of local animal health experts. The resulting tool is based on eight critical parameters that can be estimated from the literature, expert opinion, observational studies and information generated from routine surveillance. In the case study presented, results generated by this tool were most sensitive to the probability that dogs are present on private and fishing boats and it was predicted that rabies-infection (one infected case) might occur in a rabies-free island (upper 95% prediction interval) with a volume of 1000 boats movements. With 25,000 boat movements, the median of the probability distribution would be equal to one infected case, with an upper 95% prediction interval of six infected cases. This tool could also be used at the national-level to guide control and eradication plans. An initial recommendation from this study is to develop a surveillance programme to determine the likelihood that boats transport dogs, for example by port surveillance or regularly conducted surveys of fisherman and passenger ferries. However, the illegal nature of dog transportation from rabies-infected to rabies-free islands is a challenge for developing such surveillance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Computer Support of Detecting Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Franěk, P.; Tomečková, Marie; Zvárová, Jana

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 1 (2002), s. 61-68 ISSN 0208-5216 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LN00B107 Keywords : epidemiology * cardiology * neural network * discriminant analysis * logistic regression Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information

  3. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  4. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  5. Seismic analysis of piping systems subjected to multiple support excitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundararajan, C.; Vaish, A.K.; Slagis, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    The paper presents the results of a comparative study between the multiple response spectrum method and the time-history method for the seismic analysis of nuclear piping systems subjected to different excitation at different supports or support groups. First, the necessary equations for the above analysis procedures are derived. Then, three actual nuclear piping systems subjected to single and multiple excitations are analyzed by the different methods, and extensive comparisons of the results (stresses) are made. Based on the results, it is concluded that the multiple response spectrum analysis gives acceptable results as compared to the ''exact'', but much more costly, time-history analysis. 6 refs

  6. Severe accident analysis methodology in support of accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boesmans, B.; Auglaire, M.; Snoeck, J.

    1997-01-01

    The author addresses the implementation at BELGATOM of a generic severe accident analysis methodology, which is intended to support strategic decisions and to provide quantitative information in support of severe accident management. The analysis methodology is based on a combination of severe accident code calculations, generic phenomenological information (experimental evidence from various test facilities regarding issues beyond present code capabilities) and detailed plant-specific technical information

  7. Stress analysis on a PWR pressure vessel support structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, J.R.B.; Mattar Neto, M.; Jesus Miranda, C.A. de.

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents the stress analysis of a research PWR vessel support structure. Different geometries and thermal boundary conditions are evaluated. The finite element analysis is performed using ANSYS program. The ASME Section III criteria are applied for the stress verification and the following points are discussed: stress classification and linearization; jurisdictional boundary between ASME Subsection NB (Class 1 Components) and Subsection NF (Component Supports). (author)

  8. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  9. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  10. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Subramanian, V.; Semenzin, E.; Hristozov, D.; Zabeo, A.; Malsch, I.; McAlea, E.; Murphy, F.; Mullins, M.; Harmelen, T. van; Ligthart, T.; Linkov, I.; Marcomini, A.

    2016-01-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and

  11. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  13. Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or

  14. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  15. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  16. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  17. Development of an auditable safety analysis in support of a radiological facility classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, M.D.; Young, B.

    1995-01-01

    In recent years, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities commonly have been classified as reactor, non-reactor nuclear, or nuclear facilities. Safety analysis documentation was prepared for these facilities, with few exceptions, using the requirements in either DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System; or DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Reports. Traditionally, this has been accomplished by development of an extensive Safety Analysis Report (SAR), which identifies hazards, assesses risks of facility operation, describes and analyzes adequacy of measures taken to control hazards, and evaluates potential accidents and their associated risks. This process is complicated by analysis of secondary hazards and adequacy of backup (redundant) systems. The traditional SAR process is advantageous for DOE facilities with appreciable hazards or operational risks. SAR preparation for a low-risk facility or process can be cost-prohibitive and quite challenging because conventional safety analysis protocols may not readily be applied to a low-risk facility. The DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management recognized this potential disadvantage and issued an EM limited technical standard, No. 5502-94, Hazard Baseline Documentation. This standard can be used for developing documentation for a facility classified as radiological, including preparation of an auditable (defensible) safety analysis. In support of the radiological facility classification process, the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has developed an auditable safety analysis document based upon the postulation criteria and hazards analysis techniques defined in DOE Order 5480.23

  18. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  19. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  20. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  1. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  2. Supportive relationships and sexual risk behavior in adolescence: an ecological-transactional approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Christopher C; Brookmeyer, Kathryn A; Shrier, Lydia A; Shahar, Golan

    2006-04-01

    To examine the longitudinal associations between supportive relationships with friends and parents and sexual risk behavior in adolescence based on an ecological-transactional perspective. Analyses were conducted on 2,652 sexually active adolescents from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). African-American adolescents had lower risk for sexual risk behavior. Supportive friendships and parent connectedness interacted in predicting decreased likelihood of sexual risk behavior. Mother-child communication about sex contributed to decreased likelihood of sexual risk only for girls. There were also small reciprocal effects of sexual risk behavior on decreased relationship quality over time. To better understand the parents' role in adolescent sexual risk behavior, multiple facets of parenting, the social contexts of parenting and adolescents' peers, and the effects of adolescents' behavior on these relationships should be taken into consideration.

  3. [Susceptibility to strategy of the drug component of the IPHCC+RxGroups classification system in a risk-adjusted morbidity compensation scheme--a conceptional and data-supported analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrend, C; Felder, S; Busse, R

    2007-01-01

    A report commissioned by the German Ministry of Health recommends to the existing scheme for calculating risk-adjusted transfers to sickness funds supplement with the IPHCC+RxGroups method. The method is based on inpatient diagnoses and prescribed drugs as health status measures deduced from prior use. The present study investigates the sickness fund's expected net return from gaming based on the drug component of the risk adjuster. The study explores three possible strategies using the RxGroups method. For the stimulations, insurees are assigned to additional indications or to higher valued RxGroups within the same indication. Then, costs and financial benefits attributable to the altered drug use are estimated and compared with the status quo. The study uses 2000 and 2001 sample data of more than 370,000 insurees of Germany's company-based sickness funds system (BKK). While upgrading increases overall costs, it can be beneficial for the individual sickness funds. Their net return crucially depends on the number of sickness funds gaming the system: the more participating in the game, the smaller is the average net return. Moreover, not participating often is even worse, which in turn points to a prisoner's dilemma. When extending the risk adjustment scheme in social health insurance, the German legislator should take into account the perverse incentives of risk adjusters such as the described prescription drug model.

  4. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  5. Optimism and depression: a new look at social support as a mediator among women at risk for breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Melissa J; McGregor, Bonnie A; Murphy, Karly M; Koenig, Alex L; Dolan, Emily D; Albano, Denise

    2015-12-01

    Breast cancer risk is a chronic stressor associated with depression. Optimism is associated with lower levels of depression among breast cancer survivors. However, to our knowledge, no studies have explored the relationship between optimism and depression among women at risk for breast cancer. We hypothesized that women at risk for breast cancer who have higher levels of optimism would report lower levels of depression and that social support would mediate this relationship. Participants (N = 199) with elevated distress were recruited from the community and completed self-report measures of depression, optimism, and social support. Participants were grouped based on their family history of breast cancer. Path analysis was used to examine the cross-sectional relationship between optimism, social support, and depressive symptoms in each group. Results indicated that the variance in depressive symptoms was partially explained through direct paths from optimism and social support among women with a family history of breast cancer. The indirect path from optimism to depressive symptoms via social support was significant (β = -.053; 90% CI = -.099 to -.011, p = .037) in this group. However, among individuals without a family history of breast cancer, the indirect path from optimism to depressive symptoms via social support was not significant. These results suggest that social support partially mediates the relationship between optimism and depression among women at risk for breast cancer. Social support may be an important intervention target to reduce depression among women at risk for breast cancer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Physical activity and social support in adolescents: analysis of different types and sources of social support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, Gerfeson; Júnior, José Cazuza de Farias

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the influence of different types and sources of social support on physical activity in adolescents. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between physical activity and different types and sources of social support in adolescents. The sample consisted of 2,859 adolescents between 14-19 years of age in the city of João Pessoa, in Northeastern Brazil. Physical activity was measured with a questionnaire and social support from parents and friends using a 10-item scale five for each group (type of support: encouragement, joint participation, watching, inviting, positive comments and transportation). Multivariable analysis showed that the types of support provided by parents associated with physical activity in adolescents were encouragement for females (P genders (males: P = 0.009; females: P physical activity varies according to its source, as well as the gender and age of the adolescents.

  7. Data near processing support for climate data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Stephan; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Hempelmann, Nils

    2016-04-01

    Climate data repositories grow in size exponentially. Scalable data near processing capabilities are required to meet future data analysis requirements and to replace current "data download and process at home" workflows and approaches. On one hand side, these processing capabilities should be accessible via standardized interfaces (e.g. OGC WPS), on the other side a large variety of processing tools, toolboxes and deployment alternatives have to be supported and maintained at the data/processing center. We present a community approach of a modular and flexible system supporting the development, deployment and maintenace of OGC-WPS based web processing services. This approach is organized in an open source github project (called "bird-house") supporting individual processing services ("birds", e.g. climate index calculations, model data ensemble calculations), which rely on basic common infrastructural components (e.g. installation and deployment recipes, analysis code dependencies management). To support easy deployment at data centers as well as home institutes (e.g. for testing and development) the system supports the management of the often very complex package dependency chain of climate data analysis packages as well as docker based packaging and installation. We present a concrete deployment scenario at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The DKRZ one hand side hosts a multi-petabyte climate archive which is integrated e.g. into the european ENES and worldwide ESGF data infrastructure, and on the other hand hosts an HPC center supporting (model) data production and data analysis. The deployment scenario also includes openstack based data cloud services to support data import and data distribution for bird-house based WPS web processing services. Current challenges for inter-institutionnal deployments of web processing services supporting the european and international climate modeling community as well as the climate impact community are highlighted

  8. Study on risk communication support system of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higuchi, Natsuko; Yoshizawa, Yuji; Takeuchi, Mitsuo; Kitayama, Kazumi; Kobayashi, Yoko

    2008-01-01

    In order to smoothly implement the selection of a final site for disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW), it is necessary to ensure effective communication with various stakeholders and to gain public confidence. Text mining technology can extract useful information from texts such as symposium dialogs or questionnaires after a lecture. The problem and its solution are extracted by structuring and visualizing the topics and it is possible to obtain feedback information for the next symposium or lecture and/or posterity. We applied text mining to analyze a facilitation of panel discussion and to understand future researchers. The development of such an analysis technique will contribute to mutual confidence and agreement among all the stakeholders in a HLW disposal project. (author)

  9. A relational approach to support software architecture analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feijs, L.M.G.; Krikhaar, R.L.; van Ommering, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper reports on our experience with a relational approach to support the analysis of existing software architectures. The analysis options provide for visualization and view calculation. The approach has been applied for reverse engineering. It is also possible to check concrete designs

  10. The family health, functioning, social support and child maltreatment risk of families expecting a baby.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepistö, Sari; Ellonen, Noora; Helminen, Mika; Paavilainen, Eija

    2017-08-01

    To describe the family health, functioning, social support and child maltreatment risk and associations between them in families expecting a baby. Finland was one of the first countries in banning corporal punishment against children over 30 years ago. Despite of this, studies have shown that parents physically abuse their children. In addition, professionals struggle in intervention of this phenomenon. Abusive parents should be recognised and helped before actual violent behaviour. A follow-up case-control study, with a supportive intervention in the case group (families with a heightened risk) in maternity and child welfare clinics. The baseline results of families are described here. Child maltreatment risk in families expecting a baby was measured by Child Abuse Potential Inventory. The health and functioning was measured by Family Health, Functioning and Social Support Scale. Data included 380 families. A total of 78 families had increased risk for child maltreatment. Heightened risk was associated with partners' age, mothers' education, partners' father's mental health problems, mothers' worry about partners' drinking and mothers' difficulties in talking about the family's problems. Risk was associated with family functioning and health. Families with risk received a less support from maternity clinics. Families with child maltreatment risk and related factors were found. This knowledge can be applied for supporting families both during pregnancy and after the baby is born. Professionals working with families in maternity clinics need tools to recognise families with risk and aid a discussion with them about the family life situation. The Child Abuse Potential, as a part of evaluating the family life situation, seems to prove a useful tool in identifying families at risk. The results offer a valid and useful tool for recognising families with risk and provide knowledge about high-risk family situations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  12. Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods: a validated platform for decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, Adrian V.; Birchmeier, Juerg; Vamanu, Dan; Papazoglou, Ioannis; Kroeger, Wolfgang

    2005-01-01

    Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i)statistics-based loss of containment frequencies, (ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and (iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function). Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i)the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data, (ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and (iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site. Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the

  13. Elements of a Workplace Culture of Health, Perceived Organizational Support for Health, and Lifestyle Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Julianne; Cluff, Laurie; Lang, Jason; Matson-Koffman, Dyann; Morgan-Lopez, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the impact of elements of a workplace culture of health (COH) on employees' perceptions of employer support for health and lifestyle risk. We used 2013 and 2015 survey data from the National Healthy Worksite Program, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led initiative to help workplaces implement health-promoting interventions. Forty-one employers completed the CDC Worksite Health Scorecard to document organizational changes. Eight hundred twenty-five employees provided data to evaluate changes in their health and attitudes. We defined elements of a COH as environmental, policy, and programmatic supports; leadership and coworker support; employee engagement (motivational interventions); and strategic communication. Outcomes included scores of employees' perceptions of employer support for health and lifestyle risk derived from self-reported physical activity, nutrition, and tobacco use. We estimated effects using multilevel regression models. At the employee level and across time, regression coefficients show positive associations between leadership support, coworker support, employee engagement, and perceived support for health ( P leadership support in 2015 only ( P leadership and coworker support) tend to be associated with perceived support for health, while workplace elements (environmental and policy supports) are more associated with lifestyle risk. Employers need to confront relational and workplace elements together to build a COH.

  14. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  15. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  16. A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Small, Mitchell J

    2017-10-01

    The economic damage from coastal flooding has dramatically increased over the past several decades, owing to rapid development in shoreline areas and possible effects of climate change. To respond to these trends, it is imperative for policy makers to understand individuals' support for flood adaptation policy. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data on flood risk, this study investigates coastal residents' support for two adaptation policy measures: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs on emergency planning and evacuation. Specifically, this study explores the interactive relationships among contextual flood risks, perceived flood risks and policy support for flood adaptation, with the effects of social-demographic variables being controlled. Age, gender, race and partisanship are found to significantly affect individuals' policy support for both adaptation measures. The contextual flooding risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge associated with the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, are shown to impact one's perceptions of risk, which in turn influence one's support for both policy measures. The key finding -risk perception mediates the impact of contextual risk conditions on public support for flood management policies - highlights the need to ensure that the public is well informed by the latest scientific, engineering and economic knowledge. To achieve this, more information on current and future flood risks and options available for mitigation as well as risk communication tools are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The verification of neutron activation analysis support system (cooperative research)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasajima, Fumio; Ichimura, Shigeju; Ohtomo, Akitoshi; Takayanagi, Masaji [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Sawahata, Hiroyuki; Ito, Yasuo [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for Nuclear Science and Technology; Onizawa, Kouji [Radiation Application Development Association, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2000-12-01

    Neutron activation analysis support system is the system in which even the user who has not much experience in the neutron activation analysis can conveniently and accurately carry out the multi-element analysis of the sample. In this verification test, subjects such functions, usability, precision and accuracy of the analysis and etc. of the neutron activation analysis support system were confirmed. As a method of the verification test, it was carried out using irradiation device, measuring device, automatic sample changer and analyzer equipped in the JRR-3M PN-3 facility, and analysis software KAYZERO/SOLCOI based on the k{sub 0} method. With these equipments, calibration of the germanium detector, measurement of the parameter of the irradiation field and analysis of three kinds of environmental standard sample were carried out. The k{sub 0} method adopted in this system is primarily utilized in Europe recently, and it is the analysis method, which can conveniently and accurately carried out the multi-element analysis of the sample without requiring individual comparison standard sample. By this system, total 28 elements were determined quantitatively, and 16 elements with the value guaranteed as analytical data of the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) environment standard sample were analyzed in the accuracy within 15%. This report describes content and verification result of neutron activation support system. (author)

  18. Effects of Social Support Network Size on Mortality Risk: Considerations by Diabetes Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Ford, M Allison

    2018-05-01

    Previous work demonstrates that social support is inversely associated with mortality risk. Less research, however, has examined the effects of the size of the social support network on mortality risk among those with and without diabetes, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through 2011. This study included 1,412 older adults (≥60 years of age) with diabetes and 5,872 older adults without diabetes. The size of the social support network was assessed via self-report and reported as the number of participants' close friends. Among those without diabetes, various levels of social support network size were inversely associated with mortality risk. However, among those with diabetes, only those with a high social support network size (i.e., at least six close friends) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. That is, compared to those with zero close friends, those with diabetes who had six or more close friends had a 49% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.94). To mitigate mortality risk, a greater social support network size may be needed for those with diabetes.

  19. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  20. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  1. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  2. CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

  3. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  4. Engineering, Analysis and Technology FY 1995 Site Support Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, R.M.

    1994-09-01

    The vision of the Engineering, Analysis and Technology organization is to be recognized as the cost-effective supplier of specialized, integrated, multi-disciplined engineering teams to support Hanford missions. The mission of the Engineering, Analysis and Technology organization is to provide centralized engineering services. These services are focused on supplying technical design, analytical engineering and related support services that support Hanford's environmental restoration mission. These services include engineering analysis, design and development of systems and engineered equipment, supplying multi-disciplined engineering teams to all Hanford programs and project organizations, engineering document release, and site-wide leadership in the development and implementation of engineering standards, engineering practices, and configuration management processes

  5. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  6. Systems analysis support to the waste management technology center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera, A.L.; Osborne-Lee, I.W.; DePaoli, S.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes a systems analysis concept being developed in support of waste management planning and analysis activities for Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. (Energy Systems), sites. This integrated systems model serves as a focus for the accumulation and documentation of technical and economic information from current waste management practices, improved operations projects, remedial actions, and new system development activities. The approach is generic and could be applied to a larger group of sites. This integrated model is a source of technical support to waste management groups in the Energy Systems complex for integrated waste management planning and related technology assessment activities. This problem-solving methodology for low-level waste (LLW) management is being developed through the Waste Management Technology Center (WMTC) for the Low-Level Waste Disposal, Development, and Demonstration (LLWDDD) Program. In support of long-range planning activities, this capability will include the development of management support tools such as specialized systems models, data bases, and information systems. These management support tools will provide continuing support in the identification and definition of technical and economic uncertainties to be addressed by technology demonstration programs. Technical planning activities and current efforts in the development of this system analysis capability for the LLWDDD Program are presented in this paper

  7. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  8. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  9. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  10. Risk and Performance Analyses Supporting Closure of WMA C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberlein, Susan J.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Kemp, Christopher J.; Hildebrand, R. Douglas; Aly, Alaa; Kozak, Matthew; Mehta, Sunil; Connelly, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C as stipulated by the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) under federal requirements and work tasks will be done under the State-approved closure plans and permits. An initial step in meeting the regulatory requirements is to develop a baseline risk assessment representing current conditions based on available characterization data and information collected at the WMA C location. The baseline risk assessment will be supporting a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Field Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) for WMA closure and RCRA corrective action. Complying with the HFFACO conditions also involves developing a long-term closure Performance Assessment (PA) that evaluates human health and environmental impacts resulting from radionuclide inventories in residual wastes remaining in WMA C tanks and ancillary equipment. This PA is being developed to meet the requirements necessary for closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1 and Washington State Hazardous Waste Management Act. To meet the HFFACO conditions, the long-term closure risk analysis will include an evaluation of human health and environmental impacts from hazardous chemical inventories along with other performance Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Appropriate and Applicable Requirements (CERCLA ARARs) in residual wastes left in WMA C facilities after retrieval and removal. This closure risk analysis is needed to needed to comply with the requirements for permitted closure. Progress to date in developing a baseline risk assessment of WMA C has involved aspects of an evaluation of soil characterization and groundwater monitoring data collected as a part of the RFI/CMS and RCRA monitoring. Developing the long-term performance assessment aspects has involved the

  11. Risk and Performance Analyses Supporting Closure of WMA C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberlein, Susan J.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Kemp, Christopher J.

    2013-11-11

    The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C as stipulated by the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO) under federal requirements and work tasks will be done under the State-approved closure plans and permits. An initial step in meeting the regulatory requirements is to develop a baseline risk assessment representing current conditions based on available characterization data and information collected at the WMA C location. The baseline risk assessment will be supporting a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) Field Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) for WMA closure and RCRA corrective action. Complying with the HFFACO conditions also involves developing a long-term closure Performance Assessment (PA) that evaluates human health and environmental impacts resulting from radionuclide inventories in residual wastes remaining in WMA C tanks and ancillary equipment. This PA is being developed to meet the requirements necessary for closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1 and Washington State Hazardous Waste Management Act. To meet the HFFACO conditions, the long-term closure risk analysis will include an evaluation of human health and environmental impacts from hazardous chemical inventories along with other performance Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Appropriate and Applicable Requirements (CERCLA ARARs) in residual wastes left in WMA C facilities after retrieval and removal. This closure risk analysis is needed to needed to comply with the requirements for permitted closure. Progress to date in developing a baseline risk assessment of WMA C has involved aspects of an evaluation of soil characterization and groundwater monitoring data collected as a part of the RFI/CMS and RCRA monitoring. Developing the long-term performance assessment aspects has involved the

  12. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  13. MYPLAN - A Mobile Phone Application for Supporting People at Risk of Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard Larsen, Jette L; Frandsen, Hanne; Erlangsen, Annette

    2016-01-01

    describes MYPLAN, a mobile phone application designed to support people at risk of suicide by letting them create a safety plan. METHOD: MYPLAN was developed in collaboration with clinical psychiatric staff at Danish suicide preventive clinics. The mobile application lets the user create an individualized......BACKGROUND: Safety plans have been suggested as an intervention for people at risk of suicide. Given the impulsive character of suicidal ideation, a safety plan in the format of a mobile phone application is likely to be more available and useful than traditional paper versions. AIMS: The study......,000 times. Users at risk of suicide as well as clinical staff have provided positive feedback on the mobile application. CONCLUSION: Support via mobile phone applications might be particularly useful for younger age groups at risk of suicide as well as in areas or countries where support options are lacking...

  14. The approach to risk analysis in three industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

  15. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

  16. Development of output user interface software to support analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahanani, Nursinta Adi, E-mail: sintaadi@batan.go.id; Natsir, Khairina, E-mail: sintaadi@batan.go.id; Hartini, Entin, E-mail: sintaadi@batan.go.id [Center for Development of Nuclear Informatics - National Nuclear Energy Agency, PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia)

    2014-09-30

    Data processing software packages such as VSOP and MCNPX are softwares that has been scientifically proven and complete. The result of VSOP and MCNPX are huge and complex text files. In the analyze process, user need additional processing like Microsoft Excel to show informative result. This research develop an user interface software for output of VSOP and MCNPX. VSOP program output is used to support neutronic analysis and MCNPX program output is used to support burn-up analysis. Software development using iterative development methods which allow for revision and addition of features according to user needs. Processing time with this software 500 times faster than with conventional methods using Microsoft Excel. PYTHON is used as a programming language, because Python is available for all major operating systems: Windows, Linux/Unix, OS/2, Mac, Amiga, among others. Values that support neutronic analysis are k-eff, burn-up and mass Pu{sup 239} and Pu{sup 241}. Burn-up analysis used the mass inventory values of actinide (Thorium, Plutonium, Neptunium and Uranium). Values are visualized in graphical shape to support analysis.

  17. Development of output user interface software to support analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahanani, Nursinta Adi; Natsir, Khairina; Hartini, Entin

    2014-01-01

    Data processing software packages such as VSOP and MCNPX are softwares that has been scientifically proven and complete. The result of VSOP and MCNPX are huge and complex text files. In the analyze process, user need additional processing like Microsoft Excel to show informative result. This research develop an user interface software for output of VSOP and MCNPX. VSOP program output is used to support neutronic analysis and MCNPX program output is used to support burn-up analysis. Software development using iterative development methods which allow for revision and addition of features according to user needs. Processing time with this software 500 times faster than with conventional methods using Microsoft Excel. PYTHON is used as a programming language, because Python is available for all major operating systems: Windows, Linux/Unix, OS/2, Mac, Amiga, among others. Values that support neutronic analysis are k-eff, burn-up and mass Pu 239 and Pu 241 . Burn-up analysis used the mass inventory values of actinide (Thorium, Plutonium, Neptunium and Uranium). Values are visualized in graphical shape to support analysis

  18. Intrapersonal, interpersonal, and contextual risk factors for overprovision of partner support in marriage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, Rebecca L; Lawrence, Erika

    2014-02-01

    Recent research indicates that receiving too much support from one's spouse (i.e., overprovision of support) is actually more detrimental to marriage than not receiving enough support. The principal goal of the present study was to develop a novel framework for explaining the pathways through which couples experience overprovision of support in their marriages. Intrapersonal factors (anxious and avoidant attachment), interpersonal factors (conflict management and emotional intimacy), and contextual factors (stress originating outside of the marriage) were assessed during the transition into marriage as potential risk factors for experiencing higher levels of support overprovision during the first 5 years of marriage in a sample of 103 couples using growth curve analytic techniques. To the extent that (a) husbands were higher in avoidant attachment, (b) husbands reported greater chronic role strain, and (c) couples had lower levels of emotional intimacy, support overprovision was greater for both husbands and wives. In addition, emotional intimacy (lower levels) was a partial pathway through which husband avoidant attachment contributed to support overprovision. Finally, factors placing couples at risk for support overprovision in their marriages appear to be distinct from those increasing the risk for support underprovision. The potential for results to inform contemporary marital theories and marital preparation programs is discussed.

  19. Supportive interventions for enhancing dietary intake in malnourished or nutritionally at-risk adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Christine; Kimber, Katherine L; Gibbs, Michelle; Weekes, Christine Elizabeth

    2016-12-20

    , 'all-cause mortality', 'hospitalisation' and 'nutritional status (weight change)'. Forty-one trials (10,681 participants) met the inclusion criteria. Trials were grouped according to similar interventions (changes to organisation of nutritional care (N = 13; 3456 participants), changes to the feeding environment (N = 5; 351 participants), modification of meal profile or pattern (N = 12; 649 participants), additional supplementation of meals (N = 10; 6022 participants) and home meal delivery systems (N = 1; 203 participants). Follow-up ranged from 'duration of hospital stay' to 12 months.The overall quality of evidence was moderate to very low, with the majority of trials judged to be at an unclear risk of bias in several risk of bias domains. The risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality was 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.92); P = 0.004; 12 trials; 6683 participants; moderate-quality evidence. This translates into 26 (95% CI 9 to 41) fewer cases of death per 1000 participants in favour of supportive interventions. The RR for number of participants with any medical complication ranged from 1.42 in favour of control compared with 0.59 in favour of supportive interventions (very low-quality evidence). Only five trials (4451 participants) investigated health-related quality of life showing no substantial differences between intervention and comparator groups. Information on patient satisfaction was unreliable. The effects of supportive interventions versus comparators on hospitalisation showed a mean difference (MD) of -0.5 days (95% CI -2.6 to 1.6); P = 0.65; 5 trials; 667 participants; very low-quality evidence. Only three of 41 included trials (4108 participants; very low-quality evidence) reported on adverse events, describing intolerance to the supplement (diarrhoea, vomiting; 5/34 participants) and discontinuation of oral nutritional supplements because of refusal or dislike of taste (567/2017 participants). Meta-analysis across 17 trials with adequate

  20. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  1. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  2. Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

    2017-11-01

    In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

  3. Integration of a satellite ground support system based on analysis of the satellite ground support domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendley, R. D.; Scheidker, E. J.; Levitt, D. S.; Myers, C. R.; Werking, R. D.

    1994-11-01

    This analysis defines a complete set of ground support functions based on those practiced in real space flight operations during the on-orbit phase of a mission. These functions are mapped against ground support functions currently in use by NASA and DOD. Software components to provide these functions can be hosted on RISC-based work stations and integrated to provide a modular, integrated ground support system. Such modular systems can be configured to provide as much ground support functionality as desired. This approach to ground systems has been widely proposed and prototyped both by government institutions and commercial vendors. The combined set of ground support functions we describe can be used as a standard to evaluate candidate ground systems. This approach has also been used to develop a prototype of a modular, loosely-integrated ground support system, which is discussed briefly. A crucial benefit to a potential user is that all the components are flight-qualified, thus giving high confidence in their accuracy and reliability.

  4. Analysis of federal options to support photovoltaic industry growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennington, G.; Cherdak, A.; Williams, F.

    1979-05-01

    This report presents the methodology and results of an analysis to determine the impact and leverage of federal options for supporting the growth of the photovoltaic industry. Results were projected for combinations of the following: an aggressive federal research and development program, achievement of a technological breakthrough, and immediate or breakthrough-dependent incentives including direct price reductions, keyed-to-breakeven subsidies, and federal puchases. The modeling methodology and market assumptions were also tested to determine their effect on analysis results.

  5. Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J

    2018-05-16

    The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Risk factors associated with default among new pulmonary TB patients and social support in six Russian regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubowiak, W M; Bogorodskaya, E M; Borisov, S E; Borisov, E S; Danilova, I D; Danilova, D I; Kourbatova, E V; Kourbatova, E K

    2007-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) services in six Russian regions in which social support programmes for TB patients were implemented. To identify risk factors for default and to evaluate possible impact of social support. Retrospective study of new pulmonary smear-positive and smear-negative TB patients registered during the second and third quarters of the 2003. Data were analysed in a case-control study including default patients as cases and successfully treated patients as controls, using multivariate logistic regression modelling. A total of 1805 cases of pulmonary TB were enrolled. Default rates in the regions were 2.3-6.3%. On multivariate analysis, risk factors independently associated with default outcome included: unemployment (OR 4.44; 95%CI 2.23-8.86), alcohol abuse (OR 1.99; 95%CI 1.04-3.81), and homelessness (OR 3.49; 95%CI 1.25-9.77). Social support reduced the default outcome (OR 0.13; 95%CI 0.06-0.28), controlling for age, sex, region, residence and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear of sputum. Unemployment, alcohol abuse and homelessness were associated with increased default outcome among new TB patients, while social support for TB patients reduced default. Further prospective randomised studies are necessary to evaluate the impact and to determine the most cost-effective social support for improving treatment outcomes of TB in patients in Russia, especially among populations at risk of default.

  7. A Bayesian Network methodology for railway risk, safety and decision support

    OpenAIRE

    Mahboob, Qamar

    2014-01-01

    For railways, risk analysis is carried out to identify hazardous situations and their consequences. Until recently, classical methods such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) were applied in modelling the linear and logically deterministic aspects of railway risks, safety and reliability. However, it has been proven that modern railway systems are rather complex, involving multi-dependencies between system variables and uncertainties about these dependencies. For train ...

  8. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  9. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  10. Cognitive task load analysis : Allocating tasks and designing support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neerincx, M.A.

    2003-01-01

    We present a method for Cognitive Task Analysis that guides the early stages of software development, aiming at an optimal cognitive load for operators of process control systems. The method is based on a practical theory of cognitive task load and support. In addition to the classical measure

  11. MOJECT: MOTION ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT ASSESSMENT OF SURGICAL SKILLS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uineken, Ruben; Groot Jebbink, Erik; Halfwerk, F.R.; Bulten, Anne; Knoben, Peter; Roux, Moritz; Wicik, Ola; Groenier, Marleen

    2018-01-01

    Assessment of surgical skills is usually performed through direct observation by experts. This is subjective, expensive and requires assessor training. Motion analysis can support objective and cost-effective assessment. The aim of the current study is to design a low-cost, unobtrusive system for

  12. Positive Behavior Support and Applied Behavior Analysis: A Familial Alliance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Glen; Carr, Edward G.; Horner, Robert H.; Zarcone, Jennifer R.; Schwartz, Ilene

    2008-01-01

    Positive behavior support (PBS) emerged in the mid-1980s as an approach for understanding and addressing problem behaviors. PBS was derived primarily from applied behavior analysis (ABA). Over time, however, PBS research and practice has incorporated evaluative methods, assessment and intervention procedures, and conceptual perspectives associated…

  13. Strategic Analysis of Family Support in EHDI Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradham, Tamala S.; Houston, K. Todd; Guignard, Gayla Hutsell; Hoffman, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    State coordinators of early hearing detection and intervention (EHDI) programs completed a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, or SWOT, analysis that examined 12 areas within state EHDI programs. For the family support area, 47 EHDI coordinators listed 255 items, and themes were identified within each category. A threats,…

  14. Social support, psychological vulnerability, and HIV risk among African American men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Lena D; van den Berg, Jacob J; Chambers, Christopher S; Operario, Don

    2016-05-01

    Previous research has suggested a need to understand the social-psychological factors contributing to HIV risk among African American men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted individual in-depth interviews with 34 adult African American MSM to examine their personal experiences about: (i) sources of social support, (ii) psychological responses to the presence or absence of social support and (iii) influences of social support on sexual behaviours. The majority of participants described limited positive encouragement and lack of emotional support from family, as well as few meaningful personal relationships. Feelings of isolation and mistrust about personal relationships led many participants to avoid emotional intimacy and seek physical intimacy through sexual encounters. Findings highlight a need for multilevel interventions that enhance social support networks and address the social-psychological, emotional and interpersonal factors that contribute to HIV risk among African American MSM.

  15. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    with better decision support tools. Some of the developments are risk frameworks that encompass economic and/or ethic evaluation of climate change adaptation options and improved risk management. This line of development is based on a societal-based evaluation of maximizing the outcome for society...... in extreme precipitation has been observed, corresponding to an increase of design levels of at least 30 %. Analysis of climate change model output has given clear evidence, that further increases in extreme precipitation must be expected in the future due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses...... and planned urban drainage solutions are shared between very different stakeholders and that current practices are leading to personal bankruptcy by those bearing the highest costs. Therefore solutions must be developed that are understandable and can be communicated between different stakeholders...

  16. Modelling and mapping spread in pest risk analysis: a generic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kehlenbeck, H.; Robinet, C.; Werf, van der W.; Kriticos, D.; Reynaud, P.; Baker, R.

    2012-01-01

    Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of spread is one of the cornerstones of pest risk analysis (PRA), and is usually based on qualitative expert judgment. This paper proposes a suite of simple ecological models to support risk assessors who also wish to estimate the rate and extent of spread,

  17. Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, K.F.C.; Boonstra, A.; Wortmann, J.C.

    The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners' communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk

  18. Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

    2018-01-01

    Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

  19. Vertical load analysis of cylindrical ACS support structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.B.

    1984-01-01

    A new concept in LMFBR design ACS (above-core structures) supports which has generated some interest is to use a single large radius cylinder. The advantages of a single cylinder are reduced cost of fabrication, increased lateral stiffness, which enhances seismic resistance, and easier access to the fuel. However, the performance of these support structures when submitted to vertical loads from the core area may be substantially different, for the buckling and postbuckling behavior of a cylinder differs substantially from that of cylindrical beams. In this paper, a comparative analysis of an old prototypical support by 4 columns is compared with a cylindrical support. It is assumed that the single cylinder replaces the 4 columns in the original design. The dimensions of the two designs are compared

  20. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  1. Development of design and safety analysis supporting system for casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohsono, Katsunari; Higashino, Akira; Endoh, Shuji

    1993-01-01

    Mitsubishi heavy Industries has developed a design and safety analysis supporting system 'CADDIE' (Cask Computer Aided Design, Drawing and Integrated Evaluation System), with the following objectives: (1) Enhancement of efficiency of the design and safety analysis (2) Further advancement of design quality (3) Response to the diversification of design requirements. The features of this system are as follows: (1) The analysis model data common to analyses is established, and it is prepared automatically from the model made by CAD. (2) The input data for the analysis code is available by simple operation of conversation type from the analysis model data. (3) The analysis results are drawn out in diagrams by output generator, so as to facilitate easy observation. (4) The data of material properties, fuel assembly data, etc. required for the analyses are made available as a data base. (J.P.N.)

  2. Response spectrum analysis for multi-supported subsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology was developed to analyze multi-supported subsystems (e.g., piping systems) for seismic or other dynamic forces using response spectrum input. Currently, subsystems which are supported at more than one location in a nuclear power plant building are analyzed either by the time-history method or by response spectrum procedures, where spectra which envelop all support locations are used. The former procedure is exceedingly expensive, while the latter procedure is inexpensive but very conservative. Improved analysis procedures are currently being developed which are either coupled- or uncoupled-system approaches. For the coupled-system approach, response feedback between the subsystem and building system is included. For the uncoupled-system approach, feedback is neglected; however, either time history or response spectrum methods can be used. The methodology developed for analyzing multi-supported subsystems is based on the assumption that the building response and the subsystem response are uncoupled. This is the same assumption implicitly made by analysts who design singly-supported subsystems using floor response spectrum input. This approach implies that there is no response feedback between the primary building system and the subsystem, which is generally found to be conservative. The methodology developed for multi-supported subsystems makes this same assumption and thus should produce results with the same ease and degree of accuracy as results obtained for singly-supported subsystems. (orig./HP)

  3. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  4. Support for At-Risk Girls: A School-Based Mental Health Nursing Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamshick, Pamela

    2015-09-01

    Mental health problems often go undiagnosed or unaddressed until a crisis or extreme event brings the problem to the forefront. Youth are particularly at risk for lack of identification and treatment in regard to mental health issues. This article describes an advanced nursing practice mental health initiative for at-risk teenage girls based on Hildegard Peplau's nursing theory, group process, and healing through holistic health approaches. A support group, RICHES, was developed with focus on core components of relationships, identity, communication, health, esteem, and support. The acronym RICHES was chosen as the name of the support group. Selected themes and issues addressed in this school-based support group are illustrated in case vignettes. Through a collaborative approach with the community and school, this practice initiative presents a unique healing process that extends knowledge in the realm of intervention with at-risk teenage girls. Further research is needed on the efficacy of support groups to modify risk factors and to address goals for primary prevention in at-risk teenage girls. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  6. The impact of social support on the risk of eating disorders in women exposed to intimate partner violence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schirk DK

    2015-11-01

    low SS score (<19, 24% versus a high SS score (≥30, 12% (P=0.03. High risk of an ED was significantly associated with risky alcohol use (18% versus non-risky alcohol use (13%; P=0.008. In multivariable analysis, a 5-unit increase in overall SS was significantly associated with decreased odds of ED risk (P=0.007.Conclusion: Among IPV-exposed women, low SS is associated with an increased risk of ED. SS may protect against ED by reducing anxiety and promoting positive actions, but further study is needed to confirm this. Keywords: women, domestic violence, spouse abuse, social support, eating disorders

  7. Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Young; Bang, Ye Jin; Ee, Won Jin

    2016-01-01

    There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well designed future studies given the conflicting results from sensitivity analysis.

  8. Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jae Young [Dept. of Preventive Medicine, Keimyung University College of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Ye Jin; Ee, Won Jin [Dept. of Preventive Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well designed future studies given the conflicting results from sensitivity analysis.

  9. Hydraulic modeling support for conflict analysis: The Manayunk canal revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chadderton, R.A.; Traver, R.G.; Rao, J.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a study which used a standard, hydraulic computer model to generate detailed design information to support conflict analysis of a water resource use issue. As an extension of previous studies, the conflict analysis in this case included several scenarios for stability analysis - all of which reached the conclusion that compromising, shared access to the water resources available would result in the most benefits to society. This expected equilibrium outcome was found to maximize benefit-cost estimates. 17 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  10. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  11. Marketing analysis support system; Marketing bunseki shien system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-01-10

    Fuji Electric Co., Ltd., in collaboration with Shitashion Japan and Arthur Andersen Ltd., developed a 'marketing analysis support system' which integrally analyzes evaluation factors of various dimensions explaining consumers' purchasing behaviors and which supports business for the efficient operation of product development and demand prediction. This system breaks down products into each evaluation factor from psychological and physical viewpoints, and carries out various kinds of multivariate analysis, thereby making it easy to understand visually, for example, what evaluation factors decide relative positional relations between evaluation factors or between products as well as the position of a product in the whole. Further, more precise marketing analysis and prediction become possible by visually grasping blank areas of products, extent of competition, distribution of products, composition of product series, etc. (translated by NEDO)

  12. Rent pricing decision support mathematical model for finance leases under effective risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabbani Masoud

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, leasing has become an increasingly important and popular method for equipment acquisition. But, because of the rent pricing difficulties and some risks that affect the lessor and lessee's decision making, there are many people that still tend to buy equipment instead of lease it. In this paper we explore how risk can affect the leasing issue support mathematical model. For this purpose, we consider three types of risk; Credit risk, Transaction risk and Risk based pricing. In particular, our focus was on how to make decision about rent pricing in a leasing problem with different customers, various quality levels and different pricing methods. Finally, the mathematical model has been solved by Genetic Algorithm that is a search heuristic to optimize the problem. This algorithm was coded in MATLAB® R2012a to provide the best set of results.

  13. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Stress analysis of piping systems and piping supports. Documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rusitschka, Erwin

    1999-01-01

    The presentation is focused on the Computer Aided Tools and Methods used by Siemens/KWU in the engineering activities for Nuclear Power Plant Design and Service. In the multi-disciplinary environment, KWU has developed specific tools to support As-Built Documentation as well as Service Activities. A special application based on Close Range Photogrammetry (PHOCAS) has been developed to support revamp planning even in a high level radiation environment. It comprises three completely inter-compatible expansion modules - Photo Catalog, Photo Database and 3D-Model - to generate objects which offer progressively more utilization and analysis options. To support the outage planning of NPP/CAD-based tools have been developed. The presentation gives also an overview of the broad range of skills and references in: Plant Layout and Design using 3D-CAD-Tools; evaluation of Earthquake Safety (Seismic Screening); Revamps in Existing Plants; Inter-disciplinary coordination of project engineering and execution fields; Consulting and Assistance; Conceptual Studies; Stress Analysis of Piping Systems and Piping Supports; Documentation; Training and Supports in CAD-Design, etc. All activities are performed to the greatest extent possible using proven data-processing tools. (author)

  15. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  16. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  17. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

  18. Seismic structural response analysis for multiple support excitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, D.E.

    1975-01-01

    In the seismic analysis of nuclear power plant equipment such as piping systems situations often arise in which piping systems span between adjacent structures or between different elevations in the same structure. Owing to the differences in the seismic time history response of different structures or different elevations of the same structure, the input support motion will differ for different supports. The concept of a frequency dependent participation factor and rotational response spectra accounting for phase differences between support excitations is developed by using classical equations of motion to formulate the seismic response of a structure subjected to multiple support excitation. The essence of the method lies in describing the seismic excitation of a multiply excited structure in terms of translational and rotational spectra used at every support and a frequency dependent spatial distribution function derived from the phase relationships of the different support time histories. In this manner it is shown that frequency dependent participation factors can be derived from the frequency dependent distribution functions. Examples are shown and discussed relative to closed form solutions and the state-of-the-art techniques presently being used for the solution of problems of multiply excited structures

  19. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  20. Fire hazards analysis of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Air Support Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, M.L.; Satterwhite, D.G.

    1989-09-01

    This report describes the methods, analyses, results, and conclusions of a fire hazards risk analysis performed for the RWMC Air Support Buildings. An evaluation of the impact for adding a sprinkler system is also presented. Event and fault trees were used to model and analyze the waste storage process. Tables are presented indicating the fire initiators providing the highest potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. Engineering insights drawn form the data are also provided.

  1. Fire hazards analysis of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Air Support Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.L.; Satterwhite, D.G.

    1989-09-01

    This report describes the methods, analyses, results, and conclusions of a fire hazards risk analysis performed for the RWMC Air Support Buildings. An evaluation of the impact for adding a sprinkler system is also presented. Event and fault trees were used to model and analyze the waste storage process. Tables are presented indicating the fire initiators providing the highest potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. Engineering insights drawn form the data are also provided

  2. Mare Risk Analysis monitor; Monitor de analisis de riesgos mare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A. [Empresarios Agrupados, A. I.E. Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  3. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  4. SPATIAL ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT GEOGRAPHIC TARGETING OF GENOTYPES TO ENVIRONMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn eHyman

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Crop improvement efforts have benefited greatly from advances in available data, computing technology and methods for targeting genotypes to environments. These advances support the analysis of genotype by environment interactions to understand how well a genotype adapts to environmental conditions. This paper reviews the use of spatial analysis to support crop improvement research aimed at matching genotypes to their most appropriate environmental niches. Better data sets are now available on soils, weather and climate, elevation, vegetation, crop distribution and local conditions where genotypes are tested in experimental trial sites. The improved data are now combined with spatial analysis methods to compare environmental conditions across sites, create agro-ecological region maps and assess environment change. Climate, elevation and vegetation data sets are now widely available, supporting analyses that were much more difficult even five or ten years ago. While detailed soil data for many parts of the world remains difficult to acquire for crop improvement studies, new advances in digital soil mapping are likely to improve our capacity. Site analysis and matching and regional targeting methods have advanced in parallel to data and technology improvements. All these developments have increased our capacity to link genotype to phenotype and point to a vast potential to improve crop adaptation efforts.

  5. Radiation risk analysis of tritium in PWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Maochun; Wang Shimin

    1999-03-01

    Tritium is a common radionuclide in PWR nuclear power plant. In the normal operation conditions, its radiation risk to plant workers is the internal radiation exposure when tritium existing in air as HTO (hydrogen tritium oxide) is breathed in. As the HTO has the same physical and chemical characteristics as water, the main way that HTO entering the air is by evaporation. There are few opening systems in Nuclear Power Plant, the radiation risk of tritium mainly exists near the area of spent fuel pit and reactor pit. The highest possible radiation risk it may cause--the maximum concentration in air is the level when equilibrium is established between water and air phases for tritium. The author analyzed the relationship among the concentration of HTO in water, in air and the water temperature when equilibrium is established, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air increases with HTO concentration in water and water temperature. The analysis revealed that at 30 degree C, the equilibrated HTO concentration in air might reach 1 DAC (derived air concentration) when the HTO concentration in water is 28 GBq/m 3 . Owing to the operation of plant ventilation systems and the existence of moisture in the input air of the ventilation, the practical tritium concentration in air is much lower than its equilibrated levels, the radiation risk of tritium in PWR plant is quite limited. In 1997, Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant's practical monitoring result of the HTO concentration in the air of the nuclear island and the urine of workers supported this conclusion. Based on this analysis, some suggestions to the reduction of tritium radiation risk were made

  6. Social isolation, support, and capital and nutritional risk in an older sample: ethnic and gender differences

    OpenAIRE

    Locher, Julie L.; Ritchie, Christine S.; Roth, David L.; Baker, Patricia Sawyer; Bodner, Eric V.; Allman, Richard M.

    2005-01-01

    This study examines the relationships that exist between social isolation, support, and capital and nutritional risk in older black and white women and men. The paper reports on 1000 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 and older enrolled in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging, a longitudinal observational study of mobility among older black and white participants in the USA. Black women were at greatest nutritional risk; and black women and men were the groups mos...

  7. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  8. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  9. Supporting the information domains of fall-risk management in home care via health information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhuwail, Dari; Koru, Güneş; Mills, Mary Etta

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, home care clinicians often start the episode of care devoid of relevant fall-risk information. By collecting and analyzing qualitative data from 30 clinicians in one home health agency, this case study aimed to understand how the currently adopted information technology solutions supported the clinicians' fall-risk management (FRM) information domains, and explored opportunities to adopt other solutions to better support FRM. The currently adopted electronic health record system and fall-reporting application served only some information domains with a limited capacity. Substantial improvement in addressing the FRM information domains is possible by effectively modifying the existing solutions and purposefully adopting new solutions.

  10. Family support is not a risk factor of negative self-esteem in HIV/AIDS women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Valeria

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background Women with HIV/AIDS (WLWHA have a complex psychosocial burden and a tendency to negative self-esteem, possibly resulting in mental and emotional problems. They need family support to deal with the HIV/AIDS infection and its psychosocial burden. The purpose of this study was to determine chacteristics of family support, self-esteem, and depression of WLWHA and the relationship between family support and self-esteem and depression. Method This was a cross-sectional study of 99 WLWHA infected through their husbands/partners, with no history of drug abuse. The data was taken by a consecutive sampling of two proportions test at Dharmais Cancer Hospital from November 2013 – January 2014. The instruments comprised a demographic questionnaire, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem questionnaire, the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS, and a family support questionnaire. The data was analyzed by binary logistic regression. Results There were 99 respondents with mean age of 36 years, of whom 44.4% were high school graduates, 54.5% unemployed, and 91.9% had HIV/AIDS for more than a year. Binary logistic regression analysis showed no significant relationship between family support and self-esteem (p=0.700 and depression (p=0.396. Good family support has a protective effect of 1.3 times (OR=0.772; 95%CI: 0.138-3.770 towards increasing self-esteem, whereas poor family support increases the risk of depression 1.5 times (OR=1.477; 95%CI: 0.598-3.645 in WLWHA infected with HIV/AIDS from their husband/partner. Conclusions Good family support tend to have a protective effect towards increasing self-esteem, whereas poor family support increases the risk of depression in WLWHA infected with HIV/AIDS from their husband/partner.

  11. Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

    2013-04-01

    In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

  12. Analysis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk factors with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussem, Alex; de Morais, Sérgio Rodrigues; Corbex, Marilys

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new graphical framework for extracting the relevant dietary, social and environmental risk factors that are associated with an increased risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) on a case-control epidemiologic study that consists of 1289 subjects and 150 risk factors. This framework builds on the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) for representing statistical dependencies between the random variables. We discuss a novel constraint-based procedure, called Hybrid Parents and Children (HPC), that builds recursively a local graph that includes all the relevant features statistically associated to the NPC, without having to find the whole BN first. The local graph is afterwards directed by the domain expert according to his knowledge. It provides a statistical profile of the recruited population, and meanwhile helps identify the risk factors associated to NPC. Extensive experiments on synthetic data sampled from known BNs show that the HPC outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that appeared in the recent literature. From a biological perspective, the present study confirms that chemical products, pesticides and domestic fume intake from incomplete combustion of coal and wood are significantly associated with NPC risk. These results suggest that industrial workers are often exposed to noxious chemicals and poisonous substances that are used in the course of manufacturing. This study also supports previous findings that the consumption of a number of preserved food items, like house made proteins and sheep fat, are a major risk factor for NPC. BNs are valuable data mining tools for the analysis of epidemiologic data. They can explicitly combine both expert knowledge from the field and information inferred from the data. These techniques therefore merit consideration as valuable alternatives to traditional multivariate regression techniques in epidemiologic studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  14. User's manual of a support system for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokobayashi, Masao; Tamura, Kazuo.

    1995-10-01

    Many kinds of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been developed. However, users are required to be skillful so as to use them, and also required complicated works such as drawing event tree (ET) and calculation of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, each method is not so complete that only one method of them is not enough to evaluate human reliability. Therefore, a personal computer (PC) based support system for HRA has been developed to execute HRA practically and efficiently. The system consists of two methods, namely, simple method and detailed one. The former uses ASEP that is a simplified THERP-technique, and combined method of OAT and HRA-ET/DeBDA is used for the latter. Users can select a suitable method for their purpose. Human error probability (HEP) data were collected and a database of them was built to use for the support system. This paper describes outline of the HRA methods, support functions and user's guide of the system. (author)

  15. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  16. Developing a caries risk registry to support caries risk assessment and management for children: A quality improvement initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruff, Jesley C; Herndon, Jill Boylston; Horton, Roger A; Lynch, Julie; Mathwig, Dawn C; Leonard, Audra; Aravamudhan, Krishna

    2017-10-27

    Health registries are commonly used in medicine to support public health activities and are increasingly used in quality improvement (QI) initiatives. Illustrations of dental registries and their QI applications are lacking. Within dentistry, caries risk assessment implementation and documentation are vital to optimal patient care. The purpose of this article is to describe the processes used to develop a caries risk assessment registry as a QI initiative to support clinical caries risk assessment, caries prevention, and disease management for children. Developmental steps reflected Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality recommendations for planning QI registries and included engaging "champions," defining the project, identifying registry features, defining performance dashboard indicators, and pilot testing with participant feedback. We followed Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence guidelines. Registry eligibility is patients aged 0-17 years. QI tools include prompts to register eligible patients; decision support tools grounded in evidence-based guidelines; and performance dashboard reports delivered at the provider and aggregated levels at regular intervals. The registry was successfully piloted in two practices with documented caries risk assessment increasing from 57 percent to 92 percent and positive feedback regarding the potential to improve dental practice patient centeredness, patient engagement and education, and quality of care. The caries risk assessment registry demonstrates how dental registries may be used in QI efforts to promote joint patient and provider engagement, foster shared decision making, and systematically collect patient information to generate timely and actionable data to improve care quality and patient outcomes at the individual and population levels. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  17. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  18. Altair Lander Life Support: Design Analysis Cycles 4 and 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Molly; Curley, Su; Rotter, Henry; Stambaugh, Imelda; Yagoda, Evan

    2011-01-01

    Life support systems are a critical part of human exploration beyond low earth orbit. NASA s Altair Lunar Lander team is pursuing efficient solutions to the technical challenges of human spaceflight. Life support design efforts up through Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) 4 focused on finding lightweight and reliable solutions for the Sortie and Outpost missions within the Constellation Program. In DAC-4 and later follow on work, changes were made to add functionality for new requirements accepted by the Altair project, and to update the design as knowledge about certain issues or hardware matured. In DAC-5, the Altair project began to consider mission architectures outside the Constellation baseline. Selecting the optimal life support system design is very sensitive to mission duration. When the mission goals and architecture change several trade studies must be conducted to determine the appropriate design. Finally, several areas of work developed through the Altair project may be applicable to other vehicle concepts for microgravity missions. Maturing the Altair life support system related analysis, design, and requirements can provide important information for developers of a wide range of other human vehicles.

  19. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  20. Analysis of Logistics in Support of a Human Lunar Outpost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirillo, William; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce; Reeves, j. D.; Andrashko, Mark; Merrill, R. Gabe; Stromgren, Chel

    2008-01-01

    Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation system and lunar surface system architecture options is performed to inform NASA Constellation Program senior management on the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This paper presents an overview of the approach used to perform the campaign (strategic) analysis, with an emphasis on the logistics modeling and the impacts of logistics resupply on campaign behavior. An overview of deterministic and probabilistic analysis approaches is provided, with a discussion of the importance of each approach to understanding the integrated system behavior. The logistics required to support lunar surface habitation are analyzed from both 'macro-logistics' and 'micro-logistics' perspectives, where macro-logistics focuses on the delivery of goods to a destination and micro-logistics focuses on local handling of re-supply goods at a destination. An example campaign is provided to tie the theories of campaign analysis to results generation capabilities.

  1. Capability-Driven Design of Business Service Ecosystem to Support Risk Governance in Regulatory Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Feltus

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based regulation and risk governance gain momentum in most sectorial ecosystems, should they be the finance, the healthcare or the telecommunications ecosystems. Although there is a profusion of tools to address this issue at the corporate level, worth is to note that no solution fulfils this function at the ecosystem level yet. Therefore, in this article, the Business Service Ecosystem (BSE metamodel is semantically extended, considering the Capability as a Service (CaaS theory, in order to raise the enterprise risk management from the enterprise level up to the ecosystem level. This extension allows defining a concrete ecosystem metamodel which is afterwards mapped with an information system risk management model to support risk governance at the ecosystem level. This mapping is illustrated and validated on the basis of an application case for the Luxembourgish financial sector applied to the most important concepts from the BSE: capability, resource, service and goal.

  2. Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-09-01

    Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data

  3. Support system for loop device operator. Analysis of technological processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yakovlev, V.V.; Mozhaev, A.A.; Lyadin, A.V.

    1988-01-01

    The paper presents the results obtained from the analysis of controlling the loops of a research reactor. A method of optimized interaction of the operator and hardware of the control system by computeraided identification of the cause of regime violation is considered. The equipment diagnostics based on use of the expert system methods and tuzzy algorithms enables to propose a support system for application in new generation of loops

  4. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Systems Analysis Department

    2001-07-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis

  5. Design and Analysis of Muon Beam Stop Support Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okafor, Udenna [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The primary objective of this thesis is to design and analyze support structures to be used in the installation, test and final positioning of the MBS throughout the life of the Mu2e experiment. There several requirements for the MBS imposed by both the scope of the experiment and, other components within the DS bore. The functions of the MBS are: 1. To limit the induced rates in the Tracker, the Calorimeter and the Cosmic Ray Veto due to backsplash-and-secondary interactions, and 2. To reduce radiation levels external to the Detector solenoid. The structures used in supporting the MBS will also adhere to requirements imposed by its functions. These requirements are critical to the support structures and affect design decisions. Other requirements critical to the design are imposed by the weight, positional tolerance and assembly procedure of the MBS, and also, the magnetic field and vacuum dose rate of the DS bore. A detailed breakdown of how each requirement affects the structural design can be found in chapter 2. Chapter 3 describes the design of each support structure and its attachment to the MBS while chapter 4 describes the results from structural analysis of the support structures. Chapter 5 describes evaluation for the design through testing and calculations while the conclusion in chapter 6 reports the current status at the time of this thesis submission with a plan for future work to be completed until final design and installation.

  6. Analyzing policy support instruments and regulatory risk factors for wind energy deployment-A developers' perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luethi, Sonja; Praessler, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    A transition to a renewable energy system is high on the policy agenda in many countries. A promising energy source for a low-carbon energy future is wind. Policy-makers can attract wind energy development by providing attractive policy frameworks. This paper argues that apart from the level of financial support, both the risks stemming from the regulatory environment (legal security, administrative process and grid access) and the ability to finance projects play a critical role in determining the attractiveness of the development environment. It sheds light on how project developers trade off these different aspects and to what extent the attractiveness of a certain policy framework increases with the introduction of specific measures. Conjoint analysis is employed to provide empirical evidence on the preference of wind energy developers in the EU and the US. The analysis shows that developers' preferences are very similar across the studied regions and for different types of developers. Which policy measures could be most valuable depends on the specific existing environment. In some southeastern European countries, a reduction of administrative process duration may yield the highest utility gains, whereas, in the US, improvements in grid access regulation and an increase in remuneration levels may be more effective. - Highlights: → Paper suggests conjoint analysis as scenario tool for estimating potential effects of specific policy measures. → It provides a quantitative, empirical dataset of 119 onshore wind energy developers' preferences. → Results suggest that the aspects 'Legal security' and 'Remuneration' are important attributes. → Cluster analyses yields slightly different preferences for developers from EU and US.

  7. Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

  8. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  9. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  10. Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhu; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky

    2018-01-01

    Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or

  11. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  12. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  13. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  14. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  15. Supporting the risk management process with land information : a case study of Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potts, Katie Elizabeth; Rajabifard, Abbas; Bennett, R.M.

    2017-01-01

    It is frequently argued that, at the parcel level, stakeholders are capable of and well supported in managing their land-related risks. Yet, evidence from the contemporary Australian context suggests otherwise: numerous large-scale disaster events have revealed that citizens are ill-prepared to

  16. Nutrition support can bring survival benefit to high nutrition risk gastric cancer patients who received chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Miaozhen; Zhou, Yi-xin; Jin, Yin; Wang, Zi-xian; Wei, Xiao-li; Han, Hong-yu; Ye, Wen-feng; Zhou, Zhi-wei; Zhang, Dong-sheng; Wang, Feng-hua; Li, Yu-hong; Yang, Da-jun; Xu, Rui-hua

    2015-07-01

    The aim of our study is firstly to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic value of nutrition risk in gastric cancer patients and secondly to explore whether the nutrition support can prolong the survival of advanced gastric cancer patients. It contained two study periods. In the first period, we prospectively evaluated the nutritional risk of gastric adenocarcinoma patients from 2009 to 2011 using the method of European Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to evaluate the prognostic value of high nutrition risk. The second period was between 2012 and 2013. We prospectively gave the nutrition support to stage IV gastric cancer patients whose NRS is ≥3. There were 830 patients in the first period, 50.7% patients with a NRS ≥ 3. Patients with NRS ≥ 3 presented a significantly higher percentage of stage IV diseases, elevated values of C-reactive protein, and hypoproteinemia. The median survival was significantly higher in NRS nutrition support. The median survival was 14.3 and 9.6 months for patients with and without NRS shift, respectively, P = 0.001. NRS ≥ 3 was an independent adverse prognostic factor in gastric cancer patients. For stage IV patients whose NRS ≥ 3, the nutrition support might be helpful to improve the prognosis.

  17. Bank Risk Taking and Liquidity Creation Following Regulatory Interventions and Capital Support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

    2011-01-01

    During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

  18. Bank risk taking and liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, A.N.; Bouwman, C.H.S.; Kick, T.; Schaeck, K.

    2011-01-01

    During times of bank distress, authorities often engage in regulatory interventions and provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. An unintended effect of such actions may be a reduction in bank liquidity creation, with possible adverse consequences for the economy as a whole. This paper

  19. Towards a value model for collaborative, business intelligence-supported risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, L.; Daniëls, H.A.M.; Johannesson, P.

    2012-01-01

    Collaborative business intelligence supports risk assessment and in return enhances management control on a business network. Nonetheless, it needs an incentive basis in the first place before it can be implemented, that is, the value model. Starting from the managerial challenges which arise from

  20. Risk reduction using DDP (Defect Detection and Prevention): Software support and software applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2001-01-01

    Risk assessment and mitigation is the focus of the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) process, which has been applied to spacecraft technology assessments and planning, both hardware and software. DDP's major elements and their relevance to core requirement engineering concerns are summarized. The accompanying research demonstration illustrates DDP's tool support, and further customizations for application to software.

  1. Prototype of a web - based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aye, Z.C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M.H.; van Westen, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and

  2. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  3. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

  4. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  5. Improvement of mutual understanding in risk communication by application of a debate support system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimoda, Hiroshi; Matsuda, Koji; Ishii, Hirotake; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu

    2010-01-01

    Given the recent problem of climate change, nuclear power has become perhaps the world's most important energy source. In Japan, however, it is difficult to build new nuclear facilities. One of the reasons for such difficulty lies in problems in risk communication. In this study, a support method has been proposed to improve mutual understanding in risk communication. The authors paid especial attention at the learning effect of debating and the benefits of employing a debate support system. A laboratory experiment including 30 university students was conducted in order to evaluate the proposed method. Results showed that the use of the system could improve mutual understanding especially with respect to the factors of risk 'reduction measures' and 'accident management'. In addition, it was found that using the system and debating from 'opposite positions' could improve subjective mutual understanding; however, this practice showed no effectiveness in terms of improving objective mutual understanding. (author)

  6. Support of the management of climatic risks and chances; Unterstuetzung des Managements von Klimarisiken und -chancen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kind, Christian; Mohns, Till [adelphi research gGmbH, Berlin (Germany); Sartorius, Christian [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    The far-reaching effects of irreversible climatic changes should inform on the expected changes, risks and opportunities. The project 'Support of the management of climate risks and opportunities' contributes to this. As part of this project, an information and decision support system (DSS) is developed which should enable public and private organizations (a) to identify possible risks of climatic change; (b) to avoid possible damages from adjustments; (c) to use possible opportunities of climatic change. The authors of the contribution under consideration develop a profound, scientific basis for the structure and content of the compass-EUS. To this end, various aspects are discussed that are important for the design of such a system.

  7. Support of the management of climatic risks and chances; Unterstuetzung des Managements von Klimarisiken und -chancen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kind, Christian; Mohns, Till [adelphi research gGmbH, Berlin (Germany); Sartorius, Christian [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    The far-reaching effects of irreversible climatic changes should inform on the expected changes, risks and opportunities. The project 'Support of the management of climate risks and opportunities' contributes to this. As part of this project, an information and decision support system (DSS) is developed which should enable public and private organizations (a) to identify possible risks of climatic change; (b) to avoid possible damages from adjustments; (c) to use possible opportunities of climatic change. The authors of the contribution under consideration develop a profound, scientific basis for the structure and content of the compass-EUS. To this end, various aspects are discussed that are important for the design of such a system.

  8. Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

    2015-01-01

    In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

  9. Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsstroem, J.

    2006-12-01

    This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

  10. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  11. Support for food policy initiatives is associated with knowledge of obesity-related cancer risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Watson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To investigate community support for government-led policy initiatives to positively influence the food environment, and to identify whether there is a relationship between support for food policy initiatives and awareness of the link between obesity-related lifestyle risk factors and cancer. Methods: An online survey of knowledge of cancer risk factors and attitudes to policy initiatives that influence the food environment was completed by 2474 adults from New South Wales, Australia. The proportion of participants in support of seven food policy initiatives was quantified in relation to awareness of the link between obesity, poor diet, insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption, and physical inactivity with cancer and other health conditions. Results: Overall, policies that involved taxing unhealthy foods received the least support (41.5%. Support was highest for introducing a colour-coded food labelling system (85.9%, restricting claims being made about the health benefits of foods which are, overall, unhealthy (82.6%, displaying health warning labels on unhealthy foods (78.7% and banning unhealthy food advertising that targets children (72.6%. Participants who were aware that obesity-related lifestyle factors are related to cancer were significantly more likely to support food policy initiatives than those who were unaware. Only 17.5% of participants were aware that obesity, poor diet, insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption, and physical inactivity are linked to cancer. Conclusions: There is strong support for all policies related to food labelling and a policy banning unhealthy food advertising to children. Support for food policy initiatives that positively influence the food environment was higher among those who were aware of the link between cancer and obesity-related lifestyle factors than among those who were unaware of this link. Increasing awareness of the link between obesity-related lifestyle factors and cancer

  12. Effect-directed analysis supporting monitoring of aquatic ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquatic environments are often contaminated with complex mixtures of chemicals that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. This contamination cannot be addressed with target analysis alone but tools are required to reduce this complexity and identify those chemicals that might cause adverse effects. Effect-directed analysis (EDA) is designed to meet this challenge and faces increasing interest in water and sediment quality monitoring. Thus, the present paper summarizes current experience with the EDA approach and the tools required,and provides practical advice on their application. The paper highlights the need for proper problem formulation and gives general advice for study design. As the EDA approach is directed by toxicity, basic principles for the selection of bioassays are given as well as a comprehensive compilation of appropriate assays, includingtheir strengths andweaknesses. A specific focus is given to strategies for sampling, extraction and bioassay dosing since they strongly impact prioritization of toxicants in EDA. Reduction of sample complexity mainly relies onfractionation procedures, which are discussed in this paper, including quality assurance and quality control. Automated combinations of fractionation, biotesting and chemical analysis using so-called hyphenated tools can enhance the throughput and might reduce the risk of artifacts in laboratory work. The key to determiningthe chemical structures causing effects is analytical toxi

  13. Examination of bariatric surgery Facebook support groups: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koball, Afton M; Jester, Dylan J; Domoff, Sarah E; Kallies, Kara J; Grothe, Karen B; Kothari, Shanu N

    2017-08-01

    Support following bariatric surgery is vital to ensure long-term postoperative success. Many individuals undergoing bariatric surgery are turning to online modalities, especially the popular social media platform Facebook, to access support groups and pages. Despite evidence suggesting that the majority of patients considering bariatric surgery are utilizing online groups, little is known about the actual content of these groups. The purpose of the present study was to conduct a content analysis of bariatric surgery support groups and pages on Facebook. Online via Facebook, independent academic medical center, United States. Data from bariatric surgery-related Facebook support groups and pages were extracted over a 1-month period in 2016. Salient content themes (e.g., progress posts, depression content, eating behaviors) were coded reliably (all κ> .70). More than 6,800 posts and replies were coded. Results indicated that seeking recommendations (11%), providing information or recommendations (53%), commenting on changes since surgery (19%), and lending support to other members (32%) were the most common types of posts. Content surrounding anxiety, eating behaviors, depression, body image, weight bias, and alcohol was found less frequently. Online bariatric surgery groups can be used to receive support, celebrate physical and emotional accomplishments, provide anecdotal accounts of the "bariatric lifestyle" for preoperative patients, and comment on challenges with mental health and experiences of weight bias. Providers should become acquainted with the content commonly found in online groups and exercise caution in recommending these platforms to information-seeking patients. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  15. Disentangling the influence of value predispositions and risk/benefit perceptions on support for nanotechnology among the American public.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jiyoun; Yeo, Sara K; Brossard, Dominique; Scheufele, Dietram A; Xenos, Michael A

    2014-05-01

    Using nanotechnology as a case study, this article explores (1) how people's perceptions of benefits and risks are related to their approval of nanotechnology, (2) which information-processing factors contribute to public risk/benefit perceptions, and (3) whether individuals' predispositions (i.e., deference to scientific authority and ideology) may moderate the relationship between cognitive processing and risk perceptions of the technology. Results indicate that benefit perceptions positively affect public support for nanotechnology; perceptions of risk tend to be more influenced by systematic processing than by heuristic cues, whereas both heuristic and systematic processing influence benefit perceptions. People who are more liberal-minded tend to be more affected by systematic processing when thinking about the benefits of nanotechnology than those who are more conservative. Compared to less deferent individuals, those who are more deferent to scientific authority tend to be less influenced by systematic processing when making judgments about the benefits and risks of nanotechnology. Implications are discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  17. Managers’ Support – A Key Driver behind Enterprise Risk Management Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sprčić Danijela Miloš

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Severe consequences of the global fi nancial crisis resulted in re-thinking the risk management processes and approaches, highlighting the need for a comprehensive risk management framework. Consequently, more and more companies are moving away from the Traditional “silo-based” Risk Management (TRM to a more holistic approach known as Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. This paper presents results of both exploratory and empirical research. First, we develop ERM Index that measures maturity of ERM process within the company. Then, we present empirical results on the level of maturity and determinants of risk management system development in listed Croatian companies. Research indicates low levels of ERM development: even 38 per cent of analysed companies have no elements of ERM system, from which 22 per cent do not manage corporate risks at all. Except the company’s size supported by the economies of scale argument, managers’ support is the most important determinant of ERM system maturity in Croatian companies.

  18. Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Eyvindson

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jönköping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.

  19. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

  20. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  1. Assessments of risk indices and decision-making support within risk based land management and sustainable rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.; Didenko, V.; Golikov, V.

    2002-01-01

    Description of the applied Geoinformation Decision-Support System PRANA for risk based land management and rehabilitation of territories of Bryansk region (Russia), subjected to radioactive contamination as a result of the Chernobyl accident, is presented. The main blocks of PRANA DSS, including electronic maps, databases and models are described. Implementation of vector land use map with corresponding integration of different models allows integrating both local and regional level of analysis and practical implementation (from each field and settlement up to farm and district and regional levels). Some examples of model assessments (map of countermeasures and doses) are presented

  2. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  3. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  4. On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

    2012-11-01

    Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  6. Supporting families in a high-risk setting: proximal effects of the SAFEChildren preventive intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolan, Patrick; Gorman-Smith, Deborah; Henry, David

    2004-10-01

    Four hundred twenty-four families who resided in inner-city neighborhoods and had a child entering 1st grade were randomly assigned to a control condition or to a family-focused preventive intervention combined with academic tutoring. SAFEChildren, which was developed from a developmental-ecological perspective, emphasizes developmental tasks and community factors in understanding risk and prevention. Tracking of linear-growth trends through 6 months after intervention indicated an overall effect of increased academic performance and better parental involvement in school. High-risk families had additional benefits for parental monitoring, child-problem behaviors, and children's social competence. High-risk youth showed improvement in problem behaviors and social competence. Results support a family-focused intervention that addresses risk in low-income communities as managing abnormal challenges.

  7. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  8. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  9. Low Family Support and Risk of Obesity among Black Youth: Role of Gender and Ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard

    2017-05-12

    Most studies on the role of family environment in developing risk of obesity among youth have focused on parenting behaviors that are directly involved in energy balance in regional, non-representative White samples. Using a national sample of ethnically diverse Black youth, the current study tested the association between low family support and risk of obesity. We also tested the heterogeneity of this association based on gender, ethnicity, and their intersection. We used data from the National Survey of American Life-Adolescent Supplement (NSAL-A), a national survey of Black adolescents in the United States. The study enrolled 1170 African American and Caribbean Black 13-17 year old youth. Obesity was defined based on the cutoff points of body mass index (BMI) appropriate for age and gender of youth. Family support was measured using a five-item measure that captured emotional and tangible social support. Age, gender, and ethnicity were also measured. Logistic regressions were utilized in the pooled sample, and also based on gender, ethnicity, and their intersection, to test the link between low family support and risk for obesity. In the pooled sample, low family support was not associated with an increased risk of obesity (OR = 1.35, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.96-1.89). The association between low family support and risk of obesity was, however, significant among African American females (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.01-2.55). There was no association for African American males (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.82-1.92), Caribbean Black males (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.01-54.85), and Caribbean Black females (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.42-1.44). In conclusion, policies and programs that enable African American families to provide additional family support may prevent obesity among African American female youth. Future research should test the efficacy of promoting family support as a tool for preventing obesity among African American female youth.

  10. Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

    2014-03-01

    Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

  11. Overheads, Safety Analysis and Engineering FY 1995 Site Support Program Plan WBS 6.3.5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DiVincenzo, E.P.

    1994-09-27

    The Safety Analysis & Engineering (SA&E) department provides core competency for safety analysis and risk documentation that supports achievement of the goals and mission as described in the Hanford Mission Plan, Volume I, Site Guidance (DOE-RL 1993). SA&E operations are integrated into the programs that plan and conduct safe waste management, environmental restoration, and operational activities. SA&E personnel are key members of task teams assigned to eliminate urgent risks and inherent threats that exist at the Hanford Site. Key to ensuring protection of public health and safety, and that of onsite workers, are the products and services provided by the department. SA&E will continue to provide a leadership role throughout the DOE complex with innovative, cost-effective approaches to ensuring safety during environmental cleanup operations. The SA&E mission is to provide support to direct program operations through safety analysis and risk documentation and to maintain an infrastructure responsive to the evolutionary climate at the Hanford Site. SA&E will maintain the appropriate skills mix necessary to fulfill the customers need to conduct all operations in a safe and cost-effective manner while ensuring the safety of the public and the onsite worker.

  12. Overheads, Safety Analysis and Engineering FY 1995 Site Support Program Plan WBS 6.3.5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiVincenzo, E.P.

    1994-01-01

    The Safety Analysis ampersand Engineering (SA ampersand E) department provides core competency for safety analysis and risk documentation that supports achievement of the goals and mission as described in the Hanford Mission Plan, Volume I, Site Guidance (DOE-RL 1993). SA ampersand E operations are integrated into the programs that plan and conduct safe waste management, environmental restoration, and operational activities. SA ampersand E personnel are key members of task teams assigned to eliminate urgent risks and inherent threats that exist at the Hanford Site. Key to ensuring protection of public health and safety, and that of onsite workers, are the products and services provided by the department. SA ampersand E will continue to provide a leadership role throughout the DOE complex with innovative, cost-effective approaches to ensuring safety during environmental cleanup operations. The SA ampersand E mission is to provide support to direct program operations through safety analysis and risk documentation and to maintain an infrastructure responsive to the evolutionary climate at the Hanford Site. SA ampersand E will maintain the appropriate skills mix necessary to fulfill the customers need to conduct all operations in a safe and cost-effective manner while ensuring the safety of the public and the onsite worker

  13. MYPLAN - A Mobile Phone Application for Supporting People at Risk of Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skovgaard Larsen, Jette L; Frandsen, Hanne; Erlangsen, Annette

    2016-05-01

    Safety plans have been suggested as an intervention for people at risk of suicide. Given the impulsive character of suicidal ideation, a safety plan in the format of a mobile phone application is likely to be more available and useful than traditional paper versions. The study describes MYPLAN, a mobile phone application designed to support people at risk of suicide by letting them create a safety plan. MYPLAN was developed in collaboration with clinical psychiatric staff at Danish suicide preventive clinics. The mobile application lets the user create an individualized safety plan by filling in templates with strategies, actions, and direct links to contact persons. MYPLAN was developed in 2013 and is freely available in Denmark and Norway. It is designed for iPhone and android platforms. As of December 2015, the application has been downloaded almost 8,000 times. Users at risk of suicide as well as clinical staff have provided positive feedback on the mobile application. Support via mobile phone applications might be particularly useful for younger age groups at risk of suicide as well as in areas or countries where support options are lacking. Yet, it is important to examine the effectiveness of this type of intervention.

  14. Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological

  15. Reducing the risks of diabetes complications through diabetes self-management education and support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Dan; D'Eramo Melkus, Gail; Stuart, Patricia Mickey W; McKoy, June M; Urbanski, Patti; Boren, Suzanne Austin; Coke, Lola; Winters, Janis E; Horsley, Neil L; Sherr, Dawn; Lipman, Ruth

    2013-04-01

    People with diabetes are at risk of developing complications that contribute to substantial morbidity and mortality. In 2011, the American Association of Diabetes Educators convened an invitational Reducing Risks Symposium, during which an interdisciplinary panel of 11 thought leaders examined current knowledge about the reduction and prevention of diabetes-related risks and translated evidence into diabetes care and self-management education. Symposium participants reviewed findings from the literature and engaged in a moderated roundtable discussion. This report summarizes the discussion and presents recommendations to incorporate into practice to improve outcomes. The objective of the symposium was to develop practical advice for diabetes educators and other members of the diabetes care team regarding the reduction of diabetes-related risks. Optimal diabetes management requires patients to actively participate in their care, which occurs most effectively with a multidisciplinary team. Diabetes education is an integral part of this team approach because it not only helps the patient understand diabetes, its progression, and possible complications, but also provides guidance and encouragement to the patient to engage in proactive risk-reduction decisions for optimal health. A variety of tools are available to help the diabetes educator develop an individualized, patient-centered plan for risk reduction. More research is needed regarding intervention efficacy, best practices to improve adherence, and quantification of benefits from ongoing diabetes support in risk reduction. Diabetes educators are urged to stay abreast of evolving models of care and to build relationships with health care providers both within and beyond the diabetes care team.

  16. Applying Costs, Risks and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) methodology to Engineering Support Request (ESR) prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglekar, Prafulla N.

    1994-01-01

    Given limited budget, the problem of prioritization among Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) with varied sizes, shapes, and colors is a difficult one. At the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the recently developed 4-Matrix (4-M) method represents a step in the right direction as it attempts to combine the traditional criteria of technical merits only with the new concern for cost-effectiveness. However, the 4-M method was not adequately successful in the actual prioritization of ESRs for the fiscal year 1995 (FY95). This research identifies a number of design issues that should help us to develop better methods. It emphasizes that given the variety and diversity of ESR's one should not expect that a single method could help in the assessment of all ESR's. One conclusion is that a methodology such as Costs, Risks, and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) should be adopted. It also is clear that the development of methods such as 4-M requires input not only from engineers with technical expertise in ESR's but also from personnel with adequate background in the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis. At KSC, ESR prioritization is one part of the Ground Support Working Teams (GSWT) Integration Process. It was discovered that the more important barriers to the incorporation of cost-effectiveness considerations in ESR prioritization lie in this process. The culture of integration, and the corresponding structure of review by a committee of peers, is not conducive to the analysis and confrontation necessary in the assessment and prioritization of ESR's. Without assistance from appropriately trained analysts charged with the responsibility to analyze and be confrontational about each ESR, the GSWT steering committee will continue to make its decisions based on incomplete understanding, inconsistent numbers, and at times, colored facts. The current organizational separation of the prioritization and the funding processes is also identified as an important barrier to the

  17. Data structures supporting multi-region adaptive isogeometric analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perduta, Anna; Putanowicz, Roman

    2018-01-01

    Since the first paper published in 2005 Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) has gained strong interest and found applications in many engineering problems. Despite the advancement of the method, there are still far fewer software implementations comparing to Finite Element Method. The paper presents an approach to the development of data structures that can support multi-region IGA with local mesh refinement (patch-based) and possible application in IGA-FEM models. The purpose of this paper is to share original design concepts, that authors have created while developing an IGA package, which other researchers may find beneficial for their own simulation codes.

  18. Construction of an integrated database to support genomic sequence analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, W.; Overbeek, R.

    1994-11-01

    The central goal of this project is to develop an integrated database to support comparative analysis of genomes including DNA sequence data, protein sequence data, gene expression data and metabolism data. In developing the logic-based system GenoBase, a broader integration of available data was achieved due to assistance from collaborators. Current goals are to easily include new forms of data as they become available and to easily navigate through the ensemble of objects described within the database. This report comments on progress made in these areas.

  19. Supporting ALARP decision-making by cost benefit analysis and multi-attribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, Simon; Bedford, Tim; Atherton, Elizabeth

    2001-01-01

    Current regulation in the UK and elsewhere specify upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of frequencies of various kinds of accidents and accidental releases per annum. 'As low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. We assess the suitability of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for performing ALARP ('as low as reasonably possible') assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using 'disproportionality', and the use of discounting to trade off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk-informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a non-uniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). We discuss the problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions. We argue that multi-attribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. We also argue that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which

  20. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    In this study, rail and highway routes which may be used for shipments of high-level nuclear waste to a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada are characterized. This characterization facilitates three types of impact analysis: comparative study, limited worst-case assessment, and more sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Data for relative and absolute impact measures are provided to support comparisons of routes based on selected characteristics. A worst-case scenario assessment is included to determine potentially critical and most likely places for accidents or incidents to occur. The assessment facilitated by the data in this study is limited because impact measures are restricted to the identification of potential areas or persons affected. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of these impacts. Most likely locations for accidents to occur are determined relative to other locations within the scope of this study. Independent factors and historical trends used to identify these likely locations are only proxies for accident probability

  1. OVERVIEW OF THE SAPHIRE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Wood, Ted; Knudsen, James; Ma, Zhegang

    2016-10-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) is a software application developed for performing a complete probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using a personal computer (PC) running the Microsoft Windows operating system. SAPHIRE Version 8 is funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). INL's primary role in this project is that of software developer and tester. However, INL also plays an important role in technology transfer by interfacing and supporting SAPHIRE users, who constitute a wide range of PRA practitioners from the NRC, national laboratories, the private sector, and foreign countries. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current technical capabilities found in SAPHIRE Version 8, including the user interface and enhanced solving algorithms.

  2. Social Support and HIV Risks Among Migrant and Non-Migrant Market Workers in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergenova, Gaukhar; Shaw, Stacey A; Terlikbayeva, Assel; Gilbert, Louisa; Gensburg, Lenore; Primbetova, Sholpan; El-Bassel, Nabila

    2017-08-01

    Migration processes are listed within the primary factors facilitating the heterosexual spread of HIV. The study examines the relationship between social support, sexual HIV risk behaviors and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among 1342 male migrant and non-migrant market workers from Barakholka Market in Almaty, Kazakhstan. (1) higher level of perceived social support [Enhancing Recovery in Coronary Heart Disease (ENRICHD) Social Support Instrument (ESSI score)] was associated with a lower likelihood of having sex with a female sex worker (FSW) [OR = 0.952 (0.927, 0.978) p social support factors should be considered as a component of HIV and STI prevention programs for male migrant workers from Central Asia in Kazakhstan.

  3. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  4. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  9. Intelligent support of X-ray qualitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Hiroshi; Uota, Atsushi; Ishida, Hidenobu

    1995-01-01

    'X-ray Diffraction AI Qualitative Analysis System' which can support analytical operation was developed. The purpose of this development is that even a beginner analyst can obtain the accurate results as well as specialists. This system has three new functions. The first one is to determine the suitable measuring conditions automatically for samples or analytical aim. The second is to guide the method of peak search. And, the third is to determine searching conditions same as measuring conditions. These were realized by applying experts' knowledge with 'AI techniques' and were added to our qualitative analysis systems. A beginner analyses through dialogue with this system, and can get the same results as a specialist would get. (author)

  10. Identifying individuals at high risk of psychosis: predictive utility of Support Vector Machine using structural and functional MRI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel eValli

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis is entirely based on clinical assessment, associated with limited predictive potential. There is therefore increasing interest in the development of biological markers that could be used in clinical practice for this purpose. We studied 25 individuals with an At Risk Mental State for psychosis and 25 healthy controls using structural MRI, and functional MRI in conjunction with a verbal memory task. Data were analysed using a standard univariate analysis, and with Support Vector Machine (SVM, a multivariate pattern recognition technique that enables statistical inferences to be made at the level of the individual, yielding results with high translational potential. The application of SVM to structural MRI data permitted the identification of individuals at high risk of psychosis with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 76%, resulting in an accuracy of 72% (p<0.001. Univariate volumetric between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. In contrast, the univariate fMRI analysis identified between-group differences (p<0.05 corrected while the application of SVM to the same data did not. Since SVM is well suited at identifying the pattern of abnormality that distinguishes two groups, whereas univariate methods are more likely to identify regions that individually are most different between two groups, our results suggest the presence of focal functional abnormalities in the context of a diffuse pattern of structural abnormalities in individuals at high clinical risk of psychosis.

  11. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  12. Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

    2006-01-01

    We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

  13. Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of RPV Support Cooling System for HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min Qi; Wu Xinxin; Li Xiaowei; Zhang Li; He Shuyan

    2014-01-01

    Passive safety is now of great interest for future generation reactors because of its reduction of human interaction and avoidance of failures of active components. reactor pressure vessel (RPV) support cooling system (SCS) for high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) is a passive safety system and is used to cool the concrete seats for the four RPV supports at its bottom. The SCS should have enough cooling capacity to ensure the temperature of the concrete seats for the supports not exceeding the limit temperature. The SCS system is composed of a natural circulation water loop and an air cooling tower. In the water loop, there is a heat exchanger embedded in the concrete seat, heat is transferred by thermal conduction and convection to the cooling water. Then the water is cooled by the air cooler mounted in the air cooling tower. The driving forces for water and air are offered by the density differences caused by the temperature differences. In this paper, the thermal hydraulic analysis for this system was presented. Methods for decoupling the natural circulation and heat transfer between the water loop and air flow were introduced. The operating parameters for different working conditions and environment temperatures were calculated. (author)

  14. Development of sacrificial support fixture using deflection analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramteke, Ashwini M.; Ashtankar, Kishor M.

    2018-04-01

    Sacrificial support fixtures are the structures used to hold the part during machining while rotating the part about the fourth axis of CNC machining. In Four axis CNC machining part is held in a indexer which is rotated about the fourth axis of rotation. So using traditional fixturing devices to hold the part during machining such as jigs, v blocks and clamping plates needs a several set ups, manufacturing time which increase the cost associated with it. Since the part is rotated about the axis of rotation in four axis CNC machining so using traditional fixturing devices to hold the part while machining we need to reorient the fixture each time for particular orientation of part about the axis of rotation. So our proposed methodology of fixture design eliminates the cost associate with the complicated fixture design for customized parts which in turn reduces the time of manufacturing of the fixtures. But while designing the layout of the fixtures it is found out that the machining the part using four axis CNC machining the accurate machining of the part is directly proportional to the deflection produced in a part. So to machine an accurate part the deflection produced in a part should be minimum. We assume that the deflection produced in a part is a result of the deflection produced in a sacrificial support fixture while machining. So this paper provides the study of the deflection checking in a part machined using sacrificial support fixture by using FEA analysis.

  15. Modeling Decision Support and Uncertainty using @RISK: The COSIMA-ROAD Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    This paper concerns a newly developed software model called COSIMA-ROAD for project evaluation in the Danish road sector. COSIMA-ROAD is developed as a combined effort in co-operation between the Danish Road Directorate and the Technical University of Denmark. The applied case study is developed...... by the Danish Road Directorate. The main purpose of this paper is primarily to describe how @RISK is used in COSIMA-ROAD. First the two main modules of COSIMA-ROAD are described as respectively a traditional cost-benefit analysis (deterministic point estimate) and a risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation...

  16. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  18. Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-10-01

    As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.

  19. Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

    2013-01-01

    Many security incidents are caused by software developers’ failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases. PMID:25685513

  20. Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Many security incidents are caused by software developers’ failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases.

  1. Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

    2014-07-01

    Many security incidents are caused by software developers' failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases.

  2. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  3. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  4. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  5. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  6. Facility Safeguardability Analysis in Support of Safeguards by Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wonder, E.F.

    2010-01-01

    The idea of 'Safeguards-by-Design' (SBD) means designing and incorporating safeguards features into new civil nuclear facilities at the earliest stages in the design process to ensure that the constructed facility is 'safeguardable,' i.e. will meet national and international nuclear safeguards requirements. Earlier consideration of safeguards features has the potential to reduce the need for costly retrofits of the facility and can result in a more efficient and effective safeguards design. A 'Facility Safeguardability Analysis' (FSA) would be a key step in Safeguards-by-Design that would link the safeguards requirements with the 'best practices', 'lessons learned', and design of the safeguards measures for implementing those requirements. The facility designer's nuclear safeguards experts would work closely with other elements of the project design team in performing FSA. The resultant analysis would support discussions and interactions with the national nuclear regulator (i.e. State System of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Material - SSAC) and the IAEA for development and approval of the proposed safeguards system. FSA would also support the implementation of international safeguards by the IAEA, by providing them with a means to analyse and evaluate the safeguardability of facilities being designed and constructed - i.e. by independently reviewing and validating the FSA as performed by the design team. Development of an FSA methodology is part of a broader U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration program to develop international safeguards-by-design tools and guidance documents for use by facility designers. The NNSA NGSI -sponsored project team is looking, as one element of its work, at how elements of the methodology developed by the Generation IV International Forum's Working Group on Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection can be adapted to supporting FSA. (author)

  7. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

    2014-10-01

    Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

  9. Online Social Support for Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A Thematic Analysis of Messages Posted to a Virtual Support Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoumeh Abbasi Shavazi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Currently with the emergence of the Internet, patients have an opportunity to exchange social support online. However, little attention has been devoted to different dimensions of online social support exchanged in virtual support communities for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS. Methods: To provide a rich insight, the aim of this qualitative study was to explore and categorize different dimensions of online social support in messages exchanged in a virtual support community for patients with MS. A total of 548 posted messages created during one year period were selected using purposive sampling to consider the maximum variation sampling. Prior-research-driven thematic analysis was then conducted. In this regard, we used the Cutruna and Suhr’s coding system. The messages that could not be categorized with the used coding system were thematically analyzed to explore new additional social support themes. Results: The results showed that various forms of social support including informational, emotional, network, esteem and tangible support were exchanged. Moreover, new additional social support themes including sharing personal experiences, sharing coping strategies and spiritual support emerged in this virtual support community. Conclusion: The wide range of online social support exchanged in the virtual support community can be regarded as a supplementary source of social support for patients with MS. Future researches can examine online social support more comprehensively considering additional social support themes emerging in the present study.

  10. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  11. Social Support and Sexual Risk Among Establishment-Based Female Sex Workers in Tijuana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, Shonali Mona; Toller Erausquin, Jennifer; Park, Kyuwon; Anglade, Debbie

    2015-08-01

    Social support can affect health outcomes of female sex workers. In this inductive feminist grounded theory study based on 20 in-depth interviews, we explore how establishment-based female sex workers in Tijuana perceive the impact of the connections among women on their lives and health. Participants elected to discuss the importance of social support from mothers, sisters, friends, and co-workers, and the empowering and disempowering aspects of these relationships. In previous studies, scholars demonstrated the efficacy of formal organization of female sex workers in promoting the mitigation of sexual and HIV risk. We show the importance of informal ties with other women. Some participants mentioned competitive relationships, others talked about cooperation and the desire for a venue to learn from one another. Social interactions with other women are especially empowering when female sex workers can openly engage in "woman talk" that may contribute to the mitigation of sexual and HIV risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodin, N. Patrik; Maraldo, Maja V.; Aznar, Marianne C.

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). METHODS AND MATERIALS...... and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. CONCLUSION: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options....... of dose-response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan...

  13. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  14. Qualitative risk assessment of subsurface barriers in applications supporting retrieval of SST waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, R.L.

    1994-04-01

    This report provides a brief, qualitative assessment of risks associated with the potential use of impermeable surface barriers installed around and beneath Hanford Site single-shell tanks (SSTs) to support the retrieval of wastes from those tanks. These risks are compared to qualitative assessment of costs and risks associated with a case in which barriers are not used. A quantitative assessment of costs and risks associated with these two cases will be prepared and documented in a companion report. The companion report will compare quantitatively the costs and risks of several retrieval options with varying parameters, such as effectiveness of retrieval, effectiveness of subsurface barriers, and the use of surface barriers. For ease of comparison of qualitative risks, a case in which impermeable subsurface barriers are used in conjunction with another technology to remove tank waste is referred, to in this report as the Barrier Case. A case in which waste removal technologies are used without employing a subsurface barrier is referred to as the No Barrier Case. The technologies associated with each case are described in the following sections

  15. Recent innovation of geospatial information technology to support disaster risk management and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Une, Hiroshi; Nakano, Takayuki

    2018-05-01

    Geographic location is one of the most fundamental and indispensable information elements in the field of disaster response and prevention. For example, in the case of the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011, aerial photos taken immediately after the earthquake greatly improved information sharing among different government offices and facilitated rescue and recovery operations, and maps prepared after the disaster assisted in the rapid reconstruction of affected local communities. Thanks to the recent development of geospatial information technology, this information has become more essential for disaster response activities. Advancements in web mapping technology allows us to better understand the situation by overlaying various location-specific data on base maps on the web and specifying the areas on which activities should be focused. Through 3-D modelling technology, we can have a more realistic understanding of the relationship between disaster and topography. Geospatial information technology can sup-port proper preparation and emergency responses against disasters by individuals and local communities through hazard mapping and other information services using mobile devices. Thus, geospatial information technology is playing a more vital role on all stages of disaster risk management and responses. In acknowledging geospatial information's vital role in disaster risk reduction, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, adopted at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, repeatedly reveals the importance of utilizing geospatial information technology for disaster risk reduction. This presentation aims to report the recent practical applications of geospatial information technology for disaster risk management and responses.

  16. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  17. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  18. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  19. The use of risk assessment to support control of Salmonella in pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    Despite the effectivity of control measures in the past decade, domestic pork was estimated to be the most important food source for salmonellosis in Denmark in 2014 (Anonymous 2015). Therefore, there is a continued focus on the identification of effective intervention measures in the pig and pork...... of salmonellosis for the Danish population. The results of these projects illustrate how quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) can be applied to support the control of Salmonella in pork....

  20. A decision support tool to prioritize risk management options for contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorvari, Jaana; Seppälä, Jyri

    2010-03-15

    The decisions on risk management (RM) of contaminated sites in Finland have typically been driven by practical factors such as time and money. However, RM is a multifaceted task that generally involves several additional determinants, e.g. performance and environmental effects of remediation methods, psychological and social factors. Therefore, we adopted a multi-criteria decision analysis approach and developed a decision support tool (DST) that is viable in decision-making in such a complex situation. The basic components of the DST are based on the Dutch REC system. However, our DST is more case-specific and allows the consideration of the type, magnitude and scale of contamination, land use, environmental conditions and socio-cultural aspects (e.g. loss of cultural heritage, image aspects). The construction of the DST was started by structuring the decision problem using a value tree. Based on this work we adopted the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for data aggregation. The final DST was demonstrated by two model sites for which the RM alternatives and site-specific data were created on the basis of factual remediation projects and by interviewing experts. The demonstration of the DST was carried out in a workshop where representatives of different stakeholders were requested to rank and weight the decision criteria involved. To get information on the consistency of the ranking of the RM alternatives, we used different weighting techniques (ratio estimation and pair-wise weighting) and alternative ways to treat individual respondents' weights in calculating the preference scores for each RM alternative. These dissimilar approaches resulted in some differences in the preference order of the RM alternatives. The demonstration showed that attention has to be paid to the proper description of the site, the principles of the procedure and the decision criteria. Nevertheless, the procedure proved to enable efficient communication between different stakeholders