Rising atmospheric CO{sub 2} and crops: Research methodology and direct effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rogers, H. [National Soil Dynamics Laboratory, Auburn, AL (United States); Acock, B. [Systems Research Laboratory, Beltsville, MD (United States)

1993-12-31

Carbon dioxide is the food of trees and grass. Our relentless pursuit of a better life has taken us down a traffic jammed road, past smoking factories and forests. This pursuit is forcing a rise in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} level, and no one know when and if flood stage will be reached. Some thinkers have suggested that this increase of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere will cause warming. No matter whether this prediction is realized or not, more CO{sub 2} will directly affect plants. Data from controlled observations have usually, but not always, shown benefits. Our choices of scientific equipment for gathering CO{sub 2} response data are critical since we must see what is happening through the eye of the instrument. The signals derived from our sensors will ultimately determine the truth of our conclusions, conclusion which will profoundly influence our policy decisions. Experimental gear is selected on the basis of scale of interest and problem to be addressed. Our imaginations and our budgets interact to set bounds on our objectives and approaches. Techniques run the gamut from cellular microprobes through whole-plant controlled environment chambers to field-scale exposure systems. Trade-offs exist among the various CO{sub 2} exposure techniques, and many factors impinge on the choice of a method. All exposure chambers are derivatives of three primary types--batch, plug flow, and continuous stirred tank reactor. Systems for the generation of controlled test atmospheres of CO{sub 2} vary in two basic ways--size and degree of control. Among the newest is free-air CO{sub 2} enrichment which allows tens of square meters of cropland to be studied.

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

A short history of RubisCO: the rise and fall (?) of Nature's predominant CO2 fixing enzyme.

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Erb, Tobias J; Zarzycki, Jan

2018-02-01

Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RubisCO) is arguably one of the most abundant proteins in the biosphere and a key enzyme in the global carbon cycle. Although RubisCO has been intensively studied, its evolutionary origins and rise as Nature's most dominant carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-fixing enzyme still remain in the dark. In this review we will bring together biochemical, structural, physiological, microbiological, as well as phylogenetic data to speculate on the evolutionary roots of the CO 2 -fixation reaction of RubisCO, the emergence of RubisCO-based autotrophic CO 2 -fixation in the context of the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle, and the further evolution of RubisCO into the 'RubisCOsome', a complex of various proteins assembling and interacting with the enzyme to improve its operational capacity (functionality) under different biological and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Final Report on "Rising CO2 and Long-term Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems: An Empirical Carbon Budget Validation"

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. Patrick Megonigal; Bert G. Drake

2010-08-27

The primary goal of this report is to report the results of Grant DE-FG02-97ER62458, which began in 1997 as Grant DOE-98-59-MP-4 funded through the TECO program. However, this project has a longer history because DOE also funded this study from its inception in 1985 through 1997. The original grant was focused on plant responses to elevated CO2 in an intact ecosystem, while the latter grant was focused on belowground responses. Here we summarize the major findings across the 25 years this study has operated, and note that the experiment will continue to run through 2020 with NSF support. The major conclusions of the study to date are: (1 Elevated CO2 stimulated plant productivity in the C3 plant community by ~30% during the 25 year study. The magnitude of the increase in productivity varied interannually and was sometime absent altogether. There is some evidence of down-regulation at the ecosystem level across the 25 year record that may be due to interactions with other factors such as sea-level rise or long-term changes in N supply; (2) Elevated CO2 stimulated C4 productivity by <10%, perhaps due to more efficient water use, but C3 plants at elevated CO2 did not displace C4 plants as predicted; (3) Increased primary production caused a general stimulation of microbial processes, but there were both increases and decreases in activity depending on the specific organisms considered. An increase in methanogenesis and methane emissions implies elevated CO2 may amplify radiative forcing in the case of wetland ecosystems; (4) Elevated CO2 stimulated soil carbon sequestration in the form of an increase in elevation. The increase in elevation is 50-100% of the increase in net ecosystem production caused by elevated CO2 (still under analysis). The increase in soil elevation suggests the elevated CO2 may have a positive outcome for the ability of coastal wetlands to persist despite accelerated sea level rise; (5) Crossing elevated CO2 with elevated N causes the elevated CO

Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

2013-12-01

Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales.

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Foster, Gavin L; Rohling, Eelco J

2013-01-22

On 10(3)- to 10(6)-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO(2) in determining Earth's climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO(2) and sea level we describe portrays the "likely" (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO(2) stabilized at 400-450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted "acceptable warming" of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO(2) should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

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Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

2018-02-20

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

The response of vegetation to rising CO2 concentrations plays an important role in future changes in the hydrological cycle

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Hong, Tao; Dong, Wenjie; Ji, Dong; Dai, Tanlong; Yang, Shili; Wei, Ting

2018-04-01

The effects of increasing CO2 concentrations on plant and carbon cycle have been extensively investigated; however, the effects of changes in plants on the hydrological cycle are still not fully understood. Increases in CO2 modify the stomatal conductance and water use of plants, which may have a considerable effect on the hydrological cycle. Using the carbon-climate feedback experiments from CMIP5, we estimated the responses of plants and hydrological cycle to rising CO2 concentrations to double of pre-industrial levels without climate change forcing. The mode results show that rising CO2 concentrations had a significant influence on the hydrological cycle by changing the evaporation and transpiration of plants and soils. The increases in the area covered by plant leaves result in the increases in vegetation evaporation. Besides, the physiological effects of stomatal closure were stronger than the opposite effects of changes in plant structure caused by the increases in LAI (leaf area index), which results in the decrease of transpiration. These two processes lead to overall decreases in evaporation, and then contribute to increases in soil moisture and total runoff. In the dry areas, the stronger increase in LAI caused the stronger increases in vegetation evaporation and then lead to the overall decreases in P - E (precipitation minus evaporation) and soil moisture. However, the soil moisture in sub-arid and wet areas would increase, and this may lead to the soil moisture deficit worse in the future in the dry areas. This study highlights the need to consider the different responses of plants and the hydrological cycle to rising CO2 in dry and wet areas in future water resources management, especially in water-limited areas.

Reversal in competitive dominance of a toxic versus non-toxic cyanobacterium in response to rising CO2

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Waal, D.B.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; Finke, J.F.; Vournazou, V.; Immers, A.K.; Kardinaal, W.E.A.; Tonk, L.; Becker, S.; van Donk, E.; Visser, P.M.; Huisman, J.

2011-01-01

Climate change scenarios predict a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the end of this century. Yet, how rising CO2 will affect the species composition of aquatic microbial communities is still largely an open question. In this study, we develop a resource competition model to

Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

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Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Randerson, James T.

2018-05-01

Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

Contemporary sea level rise.

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Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

2010-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Abrupt rise in atmospheric CO2 at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød: in-situ ice core data versus true atmospheric signals

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J. Chappellaz

2011-05-01

Full Text Available During the last glacial/interglacial transition the Earth's climate underwent abrupt changes around 14.6 kyr ago. Temperature proxies from ice cores revealed the onset of the Bølling/Allerød (B/A warm period in the north and the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the south. Furthermore, the B/A was accompanied by a rapid sea level rise of about 20 m during meltwater pulse (MWP 1A, whose exact timing is a matter of current debate. In-situ measured CO2 in the EPICA Dome C (EDC ice core also revealed a remarkable jump of 10 ± 1 ppmv in 230 yr at the same time. Allowing for the modelled age distribution of CO2 in firn, we show that atmospheric CO2 could have jumped by 20–35 ppmv in less than 200 yr, which is a factor of 2–3.5 greater than the CO2 signal recorded in-situ in EDC. This rate of change in atmospheric CO2 corresponds to 29–50% of the anthropogenic signal during the last 50 yr and is connected with a radiative forcing of 0.59–0.75 W m−2. Using a model-based airborne fraction of 0.17 of atmospheric CO2, we infer that 125 Pg of carbon need to be released into the atmosphere to produce such a peak. If the abrupt rise in CO2 at the onset of the B/A is unique with respect to other Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O events of the last 60 kyr (which seems plausible if not unequivocal based on current observations, then the mechanism responsible for it may also have been unique. Available δ13CO2 data are neutral, whether the source of the carbon is of marine or terrestrial origin. We therefore hypothesise that most of the carbon might have been activated as a consequence of continental shelf flooding during MWP-1A. This potential impact of rapid sea level rise on atmospheric CO2 might define the point of no return during the last deglaciation.

Long-term CO2 rise has increased photosynthetic efficiency and water use efficiency but did not stimulate diameter growth of tropical trees

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Groenendijk, P.; Zuidema, P.; Sleen, P. V. D.; Vlam, M.; Ehlers, I.; Schleucher, J.

2014-12-01

Tropical forests are a crucial component of the global carbon cycle, and their responses to atmospheric changes may shift carbon cycling and climate systems. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are the major tools to simulate tropical forest responses to climate change. One of the main determinants of these simulated responses is the effect of CO2 on tropical tree physiology and growth, the 'CO2 fertilization effect'. The paucity of CO2 enrichment experiments in the tropics importantly limits insights into the CO2 fertilization effect as well as the validation of DGVMs. However, use can be made of the 40% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. The effects of the historical CO2 rise on tree physiology and growth can be obtained from stable isotopes, isotopomers and tree diameter increments obtained in tree-ring studies. We studied the physiological and growth responses of 12 tree species in Bolivia, Cameroon and Thailand to 150 years of CO2 enrichment. Analyses of 13C of wood cellulose revealed strong, long-term increases in leaf intercellular CO2 concentrations for all study species and a marked improvement of intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE). For a subset of one species per site, we studied the Deuterium isotopomers (isomers with isotopic atoms) of glucose in wood to obtain a direct estimate of the photorespiration-to-photosynthesis ratio. We found that this ratio consistently and strongly decreased over the past century, thus increasing the effeciency and rate of photosynthesis. In spite of these strong physiological responses to increased CO2levels, we did not find evidence for increased tree diameter growth for any of the sites, or for sites combined. Possible reasons for the lack of a growth stimulation include increased (leaf) temperature, insufficient availability of nutrients or a shift in biomass investment in trees. Our results suggest that the strong CO2 fertilization of tropical tree growth often

High nitrate to phosphorus regime attenuates negative effects of rising pCO2 on total population carbon accumulation

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S. A. Krug

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The ongoing rise in atmospheric pCO2 and consequent increase in ocean acidification have direct effects on marine calcifying phytoplankton, which potentially alters carbon export. To date it remains unclear, firstly, how nutrient regime, in particular by coccolithophores preferred phosphate limitation, interacts with pCO2 on particulate carbon accumulation; secondly, how direct physiological responses on the cellular level translate into total population response. In this study, cultures of Emiliania huxleyi were full-factorially exposed to two different N:P regimes and three different pCO2 levels. Cellular biovolume and PIC and POC content significantly declined in response to pCO2 in both nutrient regimes. Cellular PON content significantly increased in the Redfield treatment and decreased in the high N:P regime. Cell abundance significantly declined in the Redfield and remained constant in the high N:P regime. We hypothesise that in the high N:P regime severe phosphorous limitation could be compensated either by reduced inorganic phosphorous demand and/or by enzymatic uptake of organic phosphorous. In the Redfield regime we suggest that enzymatic phosphorous uptake to supplement enhanced phosphorous demand with pCO2 was not possible and thus cell abundance declined. These hypothesised different physiological responses of E. huxleyi among the nutrient regimes significantly altered population carrying capacities along the pCO2 gradient. This ultimately led to the attenuated total population response in POC and PIC content and biovolume to increased pCO2 in the high N:P regime. Our results point to the fact that the physiological (i.e. cellular PIC and POC response to ocean acidification cannot be linearly extrapolated to total population response and thus carbon export. It is therefore necessary to consider both effects of nutrient limitation on cell physiology and their consequences for population size when predicting the influence of

Behavioural disturbances in a temperate fish exposed to sustained high-CO2 levels.

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Fredrik Jutfelt

Full Text Available As atmospheric CO2 levels rise, the CO2 concentration in ocean surface waters increases through a process commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Recently, surprising behavioural modifications has been detected in the early life stages of tropical coral reef fish exposed to ocean acidification-relevant CO2 concentrations, but it has been unclear if this effect could occur in temperate waters. Here we show several severe behavioural disturbances, including effects on boldness, exploratory behaviour, lateralisation, and learning in a temperate fish, the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus. The behavioural effects were consistent throughout the exposure period and increased in effect size with exposure time. We observed the effects on adult sticklebacks, a species known to be tolerant to other environmental stressors. Our findings suggest that behavioural abnormalities that stem from CO2 exposure are not restricted to sensitive tropical species or early life stages and may therefore affect fish on a global scale. The severity of disturbances and the possibility of a serious behavioural problem for fish across the globe is cause for concern.

Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

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Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

2017-12-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CFC and CH4 - an assessment on the educational level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoppenau, S.

1992-01-01

A model on the educational level is described to estimate effective future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The effects of chlorofluorocarbon and methane emission and deforestation are taken into account. The influence of different emission scenarios on the time evolution of greenhouse-gas concentration are illustrated. Future global energy policies are discussed both under the aspects of rising world population and the reduction in global CO 2 emissions. The model can be handled on a PC or even on a pocket calculator

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

2013-04-01

Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

Explaining global increases in water use efficiency: why have we overestimated responses to rising atmospheric CO(2 in natural forest ecosystems?

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Lucas C R Silva

Full Text Available The analysis of tree-ring carbon isotope composition (δ(13C has been widely used to estimate spatio-temporal variations in intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE of tree species. Numerous studies have reported widespread increases in iWUE coinciding with rising atmospheric CO(2 over the past century. While this could represent a coherent global response, the fact that increases of similar magnitude were observed across biomes with no apparent effect on tree growth raises the question of whether iWUE calculations reflect actual physiological responses to elevated CO(2 levels.Here we use Monte Carlo simulations to test if an artifact of calculation could explain observed increases in iWUE. We show that highly significant positive relationships between iWUE and CO(2 occur even when simulated data (randomized δ(13C values spanning the observed range are used in place of actual tree-ring δ(13C measurements. From simulated data sets we calculated non-physiological changes in iWUE from 1900 to present and across a 4000 m altitudinal range. This generated results strikingly similar to those reported in recent studies encompassing 22 species from tropical, subtropical, temperate, boreal and mediterranean ecosystems. Only 6 of 49 surveyed case studies showed increases in iWUE significantly higher than predicted from random values.Our results reveal that increases in iWUE estimated from tree-ring δ(13C occur independently of changes in (13C discrimination that characterize physiological responses to elevated CO(2. Due to a correlation with CO(2 concentration, which is used as an independent factor in the iWUE calculation, any tree-ring δ(13C data set would inevitably generate increasing iWUE over time. Therefore, although consistent, previously reported trends in iWUE do not necessarily reflect a coherent global response to rising atmospheric CO(2. We discuss the significance of these findings and suggest ways to distinguish real from artificial

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

van Woesik, R; Golbuu, Y; Roff, G

2015-07-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are 'keeping up' with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6-8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially 'keep up' with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low-mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m(-2)), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Effects of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reefs

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, K.K.; Moyer, R.P.

2010-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are developing comprehensive records of historical and modern coral reef growth and calcification rates relative to changing seawater chemistry resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial period to the present. These records will provide the scientific foundation for predicting future impacts of ocean acidification and sea-level rise on coral reef growth. Changes in coral growth rates in response to past changes in seawater pH are being examined by using cores from coral colonies.

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

2016-02-01

Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021

Carbon burial and storage in tropical salt marshes under the influence of sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Fernández, A C; Carnero-Bravo, V; Sanchez-Cabeza, J A; Pérez-Bernal, L H; Amaya-Monterrosa, O A; Bojórquez-Sánchez, S; López-Mendoza, P G; Cardoso-Mohedano, J G; Dunbar, R B; Mucciarone, D A; Marmolejo-Rodríguez, A J

2018-07-15

Coastal vegetated habitats can be important sinks of organic carbon (C org ) and mitigate global warming by sequestering significant quantities of atmospheric CO 2 and storing sedimentary C org for long periods, although their C org burial and storage capacity may be affected by on-going sea level rise and human intervention. Geochemical data from published 210 Pb-dated sediment cores, collected from low-energy microtidal coastal wetlands in El Salvador (Jiquilisco Bay) and in Mexico (Salada Lagoon; Estero de Urias Lagoon; Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve) were revisited to assess temporal changes (within the last 100years) of C org concentrations, storage and burial rates in tropical salt marshes under the influence of sea level rise and contrasting anthropization degree. Grain size distribution was used to identify hydrodynamic changes, and δ 13 C to distinguish terrigenous sediments from those accumulated under the influence of marine transgression. Although the accretion rate ranges in all sediment records were comparable, C org concentrations (0.2-30%), stocks (30-465Mgha -1 , by extrapolation to 1m depth), and burial rates (3-378gm -2 year -1 ) varied widely within and among the study areas. However, in most sites sea level rise decreased C org concentrations and stocks in sediments, but increased C org burial rates. Lower C org concentrations were attributed to the input of reworked marine particles, which contribute with a lower amount of C org than terrigenous sediments; whereas higher C org burial rates were driven by higher mass accumulation rates, influenced by increased flooding and human interventions in the surroundings. C org accumulation and long-term preservation in tropical salt marshes can be as high as in mangrove or temperate salt marsh areas and, besides the reduction of C org stocks by ongoing sea level rise, the disturbance of the long-term buried C org inventories might cause high CO 2 releases, for which they must be protected as a part of

Reef-scale modeling of coral calcification responses to ocean acidification and sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Takashi; Nadaoka, Kazuo; Watanabe, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Takahiro; Miyajima, Toshihiro; Blanco, Ariel C.

2018-03-01

To predict coral responses to future environmental changes at the reef scale, the coral polyp model (Nakamura et al. in Coral Reefs 32:779-794, 2013), which reconstructs coral responses to ocean acidification, flow conditions and other factors, was incorporated into a reef-scale three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. This coupled reef-scale model was compared to observations from the Shiraho fringing reef, Ishigaki Island, Japan, where the model accurately reconstructed spatiotemporal variation in reef hydrodynamic and geochemical parameters. The simulated coral calcification rate exhibited high spatial variation, with lower calcification rates in the nearshore and stagnant water areas due to isolation of the inner reef at low tide, and higher rates on the offshore side of the inner reef flat. When water is stagnant, bottom shear stress is low at night and thus oxygen diffusion rate from ambient water to the inside of the coral polyp limits respiration rate. Thus, calcification decreases because of the link between respiration and calcification. A scenario analysis was conducted using the reef-scale model with several pCO2 and sea-level conditions based on IPCC (Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013) scenarios. The simulation indicated that the coral calcification rate decreases with increasing pCO2. On the other hand, sea-level rise increases the calcification rate, particularly in the nearshore and the areas where water is stagnant at low tide under present conditions, as mass exchange, especially oxygen exchange at night, is enhanced between the corals and their ambient seawater due to the reduced stagnant period. When both pCO2 increase and sea-level rise occur concurrently, the calcification rate generally decreases due to the effects of ocean acidification. However, the

Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

2018-02-01

Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic

Leakage and Seepage of CO2 from Geologic Carbon Sequestration Sites: CO2 Migration into Surface Water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oldenburg, Curt M.; Lewicki, Jennifer L.

2005-01-01

Geologic carbon sequestration is the capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and its storage in deep geologic formations. One of the concerns of geologic carbon sequestration is that injected CO 2 may leak out of the intended storage formation, migrate to the near-surface environment, and seep out of the ground or into surface water. In this research, we investigate the process of CO 2 leakage and seepage into saturated sediments and overlying surface water bodies such as rivers, lakes, wetlands, and continental shelf marine environments. Natural CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes are well studied and provide insight into the expected transport mechanisms and fate of seepage fluxes of similar magnitude. Also, natural CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes are pervasive in surface water environments at levels that may mask low-level carbon sequestration leakage and seepage. Extreme examples are the well known volcanic lakes in Cameroon where lake water supersaturated with respect to CO 2 overturned and degassed with lethal effects. Standard bubble formation and hydrostatics are applicable to CO 2 bubbles in surface water. Bubble-rise velocity in surface water is a function of bubble size and reaches a maximum of approximately 30 cm s -1 at a bubble radius of 0.7 mm. Bubble rise in saturated porous media below surface water is affected by surface tension and buoyancy forces, along with the solid matrix pore structure. For medium and fine grain sizes, surface tension forces dominate and gas transport tends to occur as channel flow rather than bubble flow. For coarse porous media such as gravels and coarse sand, buoyancy dominates and the maximum bubble rise velocity is predicted to be approximately 18 cm s -1 . Liquid CO 2 bubbles rise slower in water than gaseous CO 2 bubbles due to the smaller density contrast. A comparison of ebullition (i.e., bubble formation) and resulting bubble flow versus dispersive gas transport for CO 2 and CH 4 at three different seepage rates reveals that

Six commercially viable ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and/or reduce CO2 emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuiling, O.; de Boer, P.L.

2013-01-01

Background The burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of rising CO2 levels of the atmosphere. This will probably result in climate change. Another consequence is ocean acidification. Although these consequences are not yet proven beyond doubt, the risk of doing nothing is too large. The simplest

Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W.; Lombard, A.

2008-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

Carbon dioxide sensing in the social context: Leaf-cutting ants prefer elevated CO2 levels to tend their brood.

Science.gov (United States)

Römer, Daniela; Bollazzi, Martin; Roces, Flavio

2018-05-18

Social insects show temperature and humidity preferences inside their nests to successfully rear brood. In underground nests, ants also encounter rising CO 2 concentrations with increasing depth. It is an open question whether they use CO 2 as a cue to decide where to place and tend the brood. Leaf-cutting ants do show CO 2 preferences for the culturing of their symbiotic fungus. We evaluated their CO 2 choices for brood placement in laboratory experiments. Workers of Acromyrmex lundii in the process of relocating brood were offered a binary choice consisting of two interconnected chambers with different CO 2 concentrations. Values ranged from atmospheric to high concentrations of 4% CO 2 . The CO 2 preferences shown by workers for themselves and for brood placement were assessed by quantifying the number of workers and relocated brood in each chamber. Ants showed clear CO 2 preferences for brood placement. They avoided atmospheric levels, 1% and 4% CO 2 , and showed a preference for levels of 3%. This is the first report of CO 2 preferences for the maintenance of brood in social insects. The observed preferences for brood location were independent of the workers' own CO 2 preferences, since they showed no clear-cut pattern. Workers' CO 2 preferences for brood maintenance were slightly higher than those reported for fungus culturing, although brood is reared in the same chambers as the fungus in leaf-cutting ant nests. Workers' choices for brood placement in natural nests are likely the result of competing preferences for other environmental factors more crucial for brood survival, aside from those for CO 2 . Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of vegetation to carbon dioxide - sorghum at elevated levels of CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burnett, R.B.; Chaudhuri, U.N.; Kanemasu, E.T.; Kirkham, M.B.

1985-12-31

Enhancement of plant growth is an important effect of the rising concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Crops vary in response to elevated CO{sub 2}. Growth often appears greater in C{sub 3} plants than in C{sub 4} plants. But relatively little work has been done with C{sub 4} plants, and most of it has been with corn. The few existing C{sub 4} data conflict. Some studies indicate that the yield of C{sub 4} plants at elevated CO{sub 2} is about one-fourth that of C{sub 3} crops, but other studies show that C{sub 4} plants with increased CO{sub 2} yield at a rate the average for all crops.

CO{sub 2}-GeoNet. A European network of excellence on geological storage of CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schulz, H.M. [GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potzdam (Germany); May, F.; Gerling, P.; Kosinowski, M.; Krueger, M.; Faber, E.; Poggenburg, J.; Teschner, M. [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany)

2007-09-13

The Network of Excellence ''CO{sub 2}GeoNet'' contains a critical mass of European research institutions in the field of underground carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage. World projections of energy use show that fossil fuel dependency will continue to 2030 and beyond; but sustainability will need CO{sub 2} emissions to be reduced by 60% by 2050. This will be difficult and will require various strategies. The associated rise in global CO{sub 2} emissions, without abatement, will be at an average rate of 1.8% per annum (from the current value of 25 Gt p.a., to 38 Gt by 2030); a rise of over 50%. Urgent action is needed to cope with policy's objectives. Europe's CO{sub 2} emissions will rise by an average of 0.6% p.a. up to 2020, from a 2000 level of 3.1 Gt to 3.5 Gt by 2020. The rocks under the North Sea have a theoretical capacity for storing over 800 Gt of CO{sub 2}. Capturing CO{sub 2} from industrial point sources and storing it underground seems to be a very attractive route to making cuts in CO{sub 2} emissions. CO{sub 2} capture and storage allows diverse fuel inputs and outputs, enhances security of supply and is well aligned with hydrogen production from fossil fuels. Through a number of projects supported by the European Commission (e.g. Joule 2, Research Framework Programmes 4 and 5) Europe has led the World on R and D in this area, with rapid growth during the last decade. National programmes are also emerging. This success has a downside, by creating fragmentation through diversification. North America despite its rejection of the Kyoto protocol (except Canada), has recently embraced CO{sub 2} capture and geological storage and is allocating huge resources (over $4bn) over the next 10 years. Europe, as a result, risks losing its head start. We therefore must work more effectively and restructure our efforts. The main aim of CO{sub 2}GeoNet will be to integrate, strengthen, and build upon the momentum of previous and existing

Numerical simulation of CO2 leakage from a geologic disposal reservoir, including transitions from super- to sub-critical conditions, and boiling of liquid of CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pruess, Karsten

2003-01-01

The critical point of CO 2 is at temperature and pressure conditions of T crit = 31.04 C, P crit = 73.82 bar. At lower (subcritical) temperatures and/or pressures, CO 2 can exist in two different phase states, a liquid and a gaseous state, as well as in two-phase mixtures of these states. Disposal of CO 2 into brine formations would be made at supercritical pressures. However, CO 2 escaping from the storage reservoir may migrate upwards towards regions with lower temperatures and pressures, where CO 2 would be in subcritical conditions. An assessment of the fate of leaking CO 2 requires a capability to model not only supercritical but also subcritical CO 2 , as well as phase changes between liquid and gaseous CO 2 in sub-critical conditions. We have developed a methodology for numerically simulating the behavior of water-CO 2 mixtures in permeable media under conditions that may include liquid, gaseous, and supercritical CO 2 . This has been applied to simulations of leakage from a deep storage reservoir in which a rising CO 2 plume undergoes transitions from supercritical to subcritical conditions. We find strong cooling effects when liquid CO 2 rises to elevations where it begins to boil and evolve a gaseous CO 2 phase. A three-phase zone forms (aqueous - liquid - gas), which over time becomes several hundred meters thick as decreasing temperatures permit liquid CO 2 to advance to shallower elevations. Fluid mobilities are reduced in the three-phase region from phase interference effects. This impedes CO 2 upflow, causes the plume to spread out laterally, and gives rise to dispersed CO 2 discharge at the land surface. Our simulation suggests that temperatures along a CO 2 leakage path may decline to levels low enough so that solid water ice and CO 2 hydrate phases may be formed

A high precision mass spectrometry method for measuring O2/N2 ratios and CO2 concentrations in air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marca, A.D.; Dennis, P.F.; Etchells, A.

2002-01-01

A full, detailed understanding of the global carbon budget is needed for robust modelling of global climate and environmental change. Since the industrial revolution the carbon cycle has been shifted from a steady state in which removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis is balanced by its addition through respiration. Currently increased respiration due to deforestation, modern agricultural practises and the burning of fossil fuels dominates photosynthesis resulting in modern atmospheric CO 2 concentrations some 32% higher than the year 1800 levels. However, the CO 2 concentration rises are lower than expected from known fossil fuel combustion inventories. A significant proportion of the excess CO 2 is taken up by the oceans, however a missing carbon sink must still be invoked to account for the difference between measured and expected CO 2 rises. A global greening as a result of increased photosynthesis is required to close the circle

Multidecadal increase in North Atlantic coccolithophores and the potential role of rising CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Rivero-Calle, Sara; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Del Castillo, Carlos E.; Balch, William M.; Guikema, Seth D.

2015-12-01

As anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions acidify the oceans, calcifiers generally are expected to be negatively affected. However, using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder, we show that coccolithophore occurrence in the North Atlantic increased from ~2 to more than 20% from 1965 through 2010. We used random forest models to examine more than 20 possible environmental drivers of this change, finding that CO2 and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were the best predictors, leading us to hypothesize that higher CO2 levels might be encouraging growth. A compilation of 41 independent laboratory studies supports our hypothesis. Our study shows a long-term basin-scale increase in coccolithophores and suggests that increasing CO2 and temperature have accelerated the growth of a phytoplankton group that is important for carbon cycling.

Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

OpenAIRE

Song, Hongzhi; Sadovski, Alexey; Jeffress, Gary

2013-01-01

Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical...

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias

2017-11-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57-130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73-150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75-147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63-133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95-189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34-75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 62 cm (40-96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 75 cm (47-113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 91 cm (61-132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr-1 and 19 mm yr-1 for FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US2005 tCO2 -1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

The rise in co-authorship in the social sciences (1980-2013)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Dorte

2016-01-01

This article examines the rise in co-authorship in the Social Sciences over a 34-year period. It investigates the development in co-authorship in different research fields and discusses how the methodological differences in these research fields together with changes in academia affect the tendency...... to co-author articles. The study is based on bibliographic data about 4.5 million peer review articles published in the period 1980-2013 and indexed in the 56 subject categories of the Web of Science’s (WoS) Social Science Citation Index (SSCI). The results show a rise in the average number of authors...... data set, statistical methods and/or team-production models....

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

2013-01-01

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

2013-07-15

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

Rising tides, rising gates: The complex ecogeomorphic response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise and human interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.

2018-04-01

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

The Rise in Co-authorship in the Social Sciences (1980-2013)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Dorte

2015-01-01

This paper examines the rise in co-authorship in the Social Sciences over a 33-year period. We investigate the development in co-authorship in different research areas and discuss how the methodological differences in these research areas and changes in academia affect the tendency to co-author a......This paper examines the rise in co-authorship in the Social Sciences over a 33-year period. We investigate the development in co-authorship in different research areas and discuss how the methodological differences in these research areas and changes in academia affect the tendency to co......-author articles. The study is based on bibliographic data about 4.5 million peer review articles published in the period 1980- 2013 and indexed in the 56 subject categories of the Web of Science’s (WoS) Social Science Citation Index (SSCI). Results show that in the majority of the subject categories we can...... data set, statistical methods and/or team-production models....

Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2012-06-01

, South Carolina; coastal cities across Florida, especially its southeast and the Tampa area; New Orleans; the San Francisco Bay Area and San Joaquin Delta; and greater Los Angeles. Overall, 3.7 million people across the US are estimated to live within 1 m of the present high-tide line. The second paper, by Tebaldi et al, specifically looks at storm surges and how their frequency is expected to change along the US coastline in the coming four decades due to rising sea levels. They first estimate future local sea-level rise relative to the land by combining the observed local trend of the past fifty years with a future acceleration due to global warming as estimated by a semi-empirical model (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009). Then they use past storm surge statistics for many different locations and shift the return level curves according to the projected sea-level rise. The authors find that by mid-century, in some locations what is now a once-per-century flooding event could become an annual event. Those are exceptional places—but at about a third of the sites investigated, a century flood could become a once-per-decade flood. Of course, many of these events need not have dramatic impacts: in fact, locations where rare floods are quite small in amplitude (and hence presumably modest in their impacts) are precisely those where the return period decreases most dramatically. In a place where the once-per-century flood is only 50 cm higher than the annual flood, a typical 30 cm rise in sea level makes a bigger difference than one in a place where the century flood is 2 m higher than the annual flood. Nevertheless, the expected large changes in return periods and return levels of storm surges clearly demonstrate that accounting for accelerating sea-level rise is vital in the planning and design of coastal infrastructure. But most importantly, these studies highlight the fact that the modern world, with many millions of people living right by the coast, is highly vulnerable to

Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

2012-04-01

Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

Climatic change on a water planet. Critical review of the CO2 problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roersch, A.; Thoenes, D.; De Wit, F.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this book is to bring the discussion about climatic change back to a scientific level. One of the conclusions is that the increased concentration of CO2 is more the result of increased solar activity than of human activities. This conclusion is based on two hypotheses: the A-theory that fossil fuel combustion leads to accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and thus a rise of temperature and climatic change, and the Z-theory that a rise of temperature is caused by exceptional activity of the sun and thus an increase of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere [nl

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

Rise of nano effects in electrode during electrocatalytic CO2 conversion

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ki Dong; Lee, Chan Woo; Jang, Jun Ho; Ha, Tak Rae; Nam, Ki Tae

2017-09-01

The electrocatalytic conversion of CO2 into value-added fuels has received increasing attention as a promising way to mitigate the atmospheric CO2 concentration and close the broken carbon-cycle. Early studies, focused on polycrystalline metal electrodes, outlined in detail the overall trends in the catalytic activity and product selectivity of pure metals; however, several inherent limitations were found, such as low current density and high overpotential, which hindered electrocatalytic CO2 reduction from practical application. Fortunately, the recent development of precisely synthesized nanocatalysts has led to several breakthroughs in catalytic CO2 conversion. By carefully controlling the thermodynamic adsorption energies and flow dynamics of reaction intermediates, nanosized electrocatalysts afford more versatile and energetically efficient routes to convert CO2 into desired chemicals. In this article, we review the state-of-the-art nanocatalysts applied for CO2 conversion and discuss newly found phenomena at the local environment near the catalyst surface. The mechanistic understanding of these findings can provide insight into the future design of catalysts for the efficient and selective reduction of CO2.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey Sadovski

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

Science.gov (United States)

Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

2013-01-01

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke-Xiu LIU

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.

PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hecht, Alan D.

2009-12-01

When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2009-01-01

The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

Plant adaptation or acclimation to rising CO2 ? Insight from first multigenerational RNA-Seq transcriptome.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson-Lazowski, Alexander; Lin, Yunan; Miglietta, Franco; Edwards, Richard J; Chapman, Mark A; Taylor, Gail

2016-11-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) directly determines the rate of plant photosynthesis and indirectly effects plant productivity and fitness and may therefore act as a selective pressure driving evolution, but evidence to support this contention is sparse. Using Plantago lanceolata L. seed collected from a naturally high CO 2 spring and adjacent ambient CO 2 control site, we investigated multigenerational response to future, elevated atmospheric CO 2 . Plants were grown in either ambient or elevated CO 2 (700 μmol mol -1 ), enabling for the first time, characterization of the functional and population genomics of plant acclimation and adaptation to elevated CO 2 . This revealed that spring and control plants differed significantly in phenotypic plasticity for traits underpinning fitness including above-ground biomass, leaf size, epidermal cell size and number and stomatal density and index. Gene expression responses to elevated CO 2 (acclimation) were modest [33-131 genes differentially expressed (DE)], whilst those between control and spring plants (adaptation) were considerably larger (689-853 DE genes). In contrast, population genomic analysis showed that genetic differentiation between spring and control plants was close to zero, with no fixed differences, suggesting that plants are adapted to their native CO 2 environment at the level of gene expression. An unusual phenotype of increased stomatal index in spring but not control plants in elevated CO 2 correlated with altered expression of stomatal patterning genes between spring and control plants for three loci (YODA, CDKB1;1 and SCRM2) and between ambient and elevated CO 2 for four loci (ER, YODA, MYB88 and BCA1). We propose that the two positive regulators of stomatal number (SCRM2) and CDKB1;1 when upregulated act as key controllers of stomatal adaptation to elevated CO 2 . Combined with significant transcriptome reprogramming of photosynthetic and dark respiration and enhanced growth in spring plants

Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

Elevated CO{sub 2} levels and herbivore damage alter host plant preferences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agrell, J. [Lund Univ., Dept. of Animal Ecology, Lund (Sweden); Anderson, Peter, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Crop Sciences, Alnarp (SE)); Oleszek, W.; Stochmal, Anna [Inst. of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation, Dept. of Biochemistry, Pulawy (Poland); Agrell, Cecilia [Lund Univ., Dept. of Chemical Ecology and Ecotoxicology, Lund (Sweden)

2006-01-01

Interactions between the moth Spodoptera littoralis and two of its host plants, alfalfa (Medicago sativa) and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) were examined, using plants grown under ambient (350 ppm) and elevated (700 ppm) CO{sub 2} conditions. To determine strength and effects of herbivore-induced responses assays were performed with both undamaged (control) and herbivore damaged plants. CO{sub 2} and damage effects on larval host plant preferences were determined through dual-choice bioassays. In addition, larvae were reared from hatching to pupation on experimental foliage to examine effects on larval growth and development. When undamaged plants were used S. littoralis larvae in consumed more cotton than alfalfa, and CO{sub 2} enrichment caused a reduction in the preference for cotton. With damaged plants larvae consumed equal amounts of the two plant species (ambient CO{sub 2} conditions), but CO{sub 2} enrichment strongly shifted preferences towards cotton, which was then consumed three times more than alfalfa. Complementary assays showed that elevated CO{sub 2} levels had no effect on the herbivore-induced responses of cotton, whereas those of alfalfa were significantly increased. Larval growth was highest for larvae fed undamaged cotton irrespectively of CO{sub 2} level, and lowest for larvae on damaged alfalfa from the high CO{sub 2} treatment. Development time increased on damaged cotton irrespectively of CO{sub 2} treatment, and on damaged alfalfa in the elevated CO{sub 2} treatment. (au) These results demonstrate that elevated CO2 levels can cause insect herbivores to alter host plant preferences, and that effects on herbivore-induced responses may be a key mechanism behind these processes. Furthermore, since the insects were shown to avoid foliage that reduced their physiological performance, our data suggest that behavioural host plant shifts result in partial escape from negative consequences of feeding on high CO2 foliage. Thus, CO2 enrichment can alter

Is sea-level rising?

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

correction in the estimation of trends obtained for tide gauge records. The altimeter data permits to prepare spatial maps of sea-level rise trends. We present a map prepared for the Indian Ocean (Figure 4) north of 10oS , which shows a fairly uniform... drawn information from research papers published by the author and report of the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13: Sea Level Changes, in which the author has served as a ‘Lead Author’. Figure1 is prepared using data from the University of Colorado. Nerem, R...

Responses of Four Rice Varieties to Elevated CO2 and Different Salinity Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheidollah Kazemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract:: This study was carried out in 2014 at Isfahan University of Technology, Iran, to evaluate the responses of four rice varieties (Neda, Deylamani, Shiroudi and Domsorkh to ambient (360 ± 50 μmol/mol and elevated (700 ± 50 μmol/mol air carbon dioxide (CO2 concentrations under four salinity levels (0, 30, 60 and 90 mmol/L NaCl. There was significant variation among rice varieties in response to elevated CO2 concentration under the four salinity levels. Under non-saline condition, elevated CO2 increased the dry weight of Neda, Deylamani and Domsorkh by 8%, 50% and 8%, respectively, but reversely decreased that of Shiroudi by 34%. Increasing CO2 concentration significantly reduced the negative effects of salinity on Shiroudi, but these effects were even increased in Deylamani and Domsorkh under all the salinity levels and in Neda only under 30 and 60 mmol/L NaCl. Significant correlations were established between plant dry weight, SPAD value and leaf area under both CO2 levels. However, this trend was observed only at ambient CO2 concentration in the presence of soluble carbohydrates. The results revealed the genotype and salinity dependence of the effects of CO2 concentrations on the rice traits investigated. Key words: CO2 concentration, genetic diversity, salt tolerance, water soluble carbohydrate

Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.

2017-12-01

Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.

Response of a Sphagnum bog plant community to elevated CO2 and N supply

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Klees, H.; Visser, de W.; Berendse, F.

2002-01-01

The response of plant growth to rising CO2 levels appears to depend on nutrient availability, but it is not known whether the growth of bog plants reacts similarly. We therefore studied the effects of elevated CO2 in combination with N supply on the growth of Sphagnum mosses and vascular plants in

Mycorrhizal responses under elevated CO2 : combining fungal and plant perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alberton, O.

2008-01-01

The rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with increased nutrient (especially nitrogen) availability are predicted to have substantial impacts on plant growth and the functioning of ecosystems. Soil micro-organisms, especially mycorrhizal fungi that form mutualistic associations

Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

Science.gov (United States)

Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

2016-12-01

Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-03-01

By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)

Pursuing air pollutant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in China: A provincial leveled analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Huijuan; Dai, Hancheng; Dong, Liang; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Geng, Yong; Klimont, Zbigniew; Inoue, Tsuyoshi; Bunya, Shintaro; Fujii, Minoru; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-01-01

Highlights: • China’s future CO 2 reduction and its co-benefits on air pollutants were projected. • GAINS-China and AIM/CGE models were combined for emission and cost estimation. • High GDP regions tended to have higher emission, reduction potential and co-benefit. • Coal ratio and coal quality were also key factors to affect reduction and co-benefit. • Mitigation investment to less developed western regions was more effective. - Abstract: With fast economic development, industrialization and urbanization, China faces increasing pressures on carbon emission reduction, and especially on air pollutants (SO 2 , NOx, PM) reduction, particularly the notorious haze issue caused by air pollution in recent years. Pursuing co-benefits is an effective approach to simultaneously respond to both carbon and air pollutant problems. In this paper, the AIM/CGE (Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment Model/Computational General Equilibrium) model and GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies)-China model are combined together to project future CO 2 and air pollutants emissions in China, as well as reduction costs and co-benefit effects. Considering implementation of carbon mitigation policy and air pollutant mitigation technologies, four scenarios (S1, S2, S3 and S4) are analyzed. Results indicate that by implementing both carbon and air pollutant mitigation (S4), CO 2 emission per GDP can be reduced by 41% by 2020, compared with the 2005 level, and SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 emissions would change by a factor 0.8, 1.26 and 1.0 of the 2005 level, respectively in 2030. The real co-benefits of emission reductions (S2 minus S4) for SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 are 2.4 Mt, 2.1 Mt and 0.3 Mt in 2020, and the corresponding cost reduction co-benefits are 4, 0.11, and 0.8 billion €, respectively. Provincial disparity analysis reveals that regions with higher co-benefits are those with higher GDP such as Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu, energy production bases such as

Total soil C and N sequestration in a grassland following 10 years of free air CO2 enrichment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kessel, van C.; Boots, B.; Graaff, de M.A.; Harris, D.; Blum, H.; Six, J.

2006-01-01

Soil C sequestration may mitigate rising levels of atmospheric CO2. However, it has yet to be determined whether net soil C sequestration occurs in N-rich grasslands exposed to long-term elevated CO2. This study examined whether N-fertilized grasslands exposed to elevated CO2 sequestered additional

CO2 hydrogenation to hydrocarbons over iron nanoparticles ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

481–486. c Indian Academy of Sciences. CO2 ... degrees of CO2 conversion shows that reverse water gas shift equilibrium had been ... rise in CO2 emission.1 Additionally, depletion in crude .... detectors (FID) using argon as internal standard.

Ocean acidification affects fish spawning but not paternity at CO2 seeps.

Science.gov (United States)

Milazzo, Marco; Cattano, Carlo; Alonzo, Suzanne H; Foggo, Andrew; Gristina, Michele; Rodolfo-Metalpa, Riccardo; Sinopoli, Mauro; Spatafora, Davide; Stiver, Kelly A; Hall-Spencer, Jason M

2016-07-27

Fish exhibit impaired sensory function and altered behaviour at levels of ocean acidification expected to occur owing to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions during this century. We provide the first evidence of the effects of ocean acidification on reproductive behaviour of fish in the wild. Satellite and sneaker male ocellated wrasse (Symphodus ocellatus) compete to fertilize eggs guarded by dominant nesting males. Key mating behaviours such as dominant male courtship and nest defence did not differ between sites with ambient versus elevated CO2 concentrations. Dominant males did, however, experience significantly lower rates of pair spawning at elevated CO2 levels. Despite the higher risk of sperm competition found at elevated CO2, we also found a trend of lower satellite and sneaker male paternity at elevated CO2 Given the importance of fish for food security and ecosystem stability, this study highlights the need for targeted research into the effects of rising CO2 levels on patterns of reproduction in wild fish. © 2016 The Author(s).

Rising sea levels and small island states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leatherman, S.P.

1994-01-01

A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

Giant Clams and Rising CO2: Light May Ameliorate Effects of Ocean Acidification on a Solar-Powered Animal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sue-Ann Watson

Full Text Available Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2 (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 μatm and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 μmol photons m-2 s-1. Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 μatm reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

Giant Clams and Rising CO2: Light May Ameliorate Effects of Ocean Acidification on a Solar-Powered Animal.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Sue-Ann

2015-01-01

Global climate change and ocean acidification pose a serious threat to marine life. Marine invertebrates are particularly susceptible to ocean acidification, especially highly calcareous taxa such as molluscs, echinoderms and corals. The largest of all bivalve molluscs, giant clams, are already threatened by a variety of local pressures, including overharvesting, and are in decline worldwide. Several giant clam species are listed as 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and now climate change and ocean acidification pose an additional threat to their conservation. Unlike most other molluscs, giant clams are 'solar-powered' animals containing photosynthetic algal symbionts suggesting that light could influence the effects of ocean acidification on these vulnerable animals. In this study, juvenile fluted giant clams Tridacna squamosa were exposed to three levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) (control ~400, mid ~650 and high ~950 μatm) and light (photosynthetically active radiation 35, 65 and 304 μmol photons m-2 s-1). Elevated CO2 projected for the end of this century (~650 and ~950 μatm) reduced giant clam survival and growth at mid-light levels. However, effects of CO2 on survival were absent at high-light, with 100% survival across all CO2 levels. Effects of CO2 on growth of surviving clams were lessened, but not removed, at high-light levels. Shell growth and total animal mass gain were still reduced at high-CO2. This study demonstrates the potential for light to alleviate effects of ocean acidification on survival and growth in a threatened calcareous marine invertebrate. Managing water quality (e.g. turbidity and sedimentation) in coastal areas to maintain water clarity may help ameliorate some negative effects of ocean acidification on giant clams and potentially other solar-powered calcifiers, such as hard corals.

COMPARISON AND CO-REGISTRATION OF DEMS GENERATED FROM HiRISE AND CTX IMAGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Images from two sensors, the High-Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE and the Context Camera (CTX, both on-board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO, were used to generate high-quality DEMs (Digital Elevation Models of the Martian surface. However, there were discrepancies between the DEMs generated from the images acquired by these two sensors due to various reasons, such as variations in boresight alignment between the two sensors during the flight in the complex environment. This paper presents a systematic investigation of the discrepancies between the DEMs generated from the HiRISE and CTX images. A combined adjustment algorithm is presented for the co-registration of HiRISE and CTX DEMs. Experimental analysis was carried out using the HiRISE and CTX images collected at the Mars Rover landing site and several other typical regions. The results indicated that there were systematic offsets between the HiRISE and CTX DEMs in the longitude and latitude directions. However, the offset in the altitude was less obvious. After combined adjustment, the offsets were eliminated and the HiRISE and CTX DEMs were co-registered to each other. The presented research is of significance for the synergistic use of HiRISE and CTX images for precision Mars topographic mapping.

Effects of high CO2 levels on dynamic photosynthesis: carbon gain, mechanisms, and environmental interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomimatsu, Hajime; Tang, Yanhong

2016-05-01

Understanding the photosynthetic responses of terrestrial plants to environments with high levels of CO2 is essential to address the ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2. Most photosynthetic models used for global carbon issues are based on steady-state photosynthesis, whereby photosynthesis is measured under constant environmental conditions; however, terrestrial plant photosynthesis under natural conditions is highly dynamic, and photosynthetic rates change in response to rapid changes in environmental factors. To predict future contributions of photosynthesis to the global carbon cycle, it is necessary to understand the dynamic nature of photosynthesis in relation to high CO2 levels. In this review, we summarize the current body of knowledge on the photosynthetic response to changes in light intensity under experimentally elevated CO2 conditions. We found that short-term exposure to high CO2 enhances photosynthetic rate, reduces photosynthetic induction time, and reduces post-illumination CO2 burst, resulting in increased leaf carbon gain during dynamic photosynthesis. However, long-term exposure to high CO2 during plant growth has varying effects on dynamic photosynthesis. High levels of CO2 increase the carbon gain in photosynthetic induction in some species, but have no significant effects in other species. Some studies have shown that high CO2 levels reduce the biochemical limitation on RuBP regeneration and Rubisco activation during photosynthetic induction, whereas the effects of high levels of CO2 on stomatal conductance differ among species. Few studies have examined the influence of environmental factors on effects of high levels of CO2 on dynamic photosynthesis. We identified several knowledge gaps that should be addressed to aid future predictions of photosynthesis in high-CO2 environments.

Sea level rise : A literature survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oude Essink, G.H.P.

1992-01-01

In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

2015-12-01

Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the

Dip in the atmospheric CO2 level during the mid-1960's

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bacastow, R.

1979-01-01

Removal of the southern oscillation effect from the CO 2 records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and the South Pole reveals corresponding decreases following the Agung eruption in 1963. The period of the decreases roughly corresponds to the period of reduced solar transmittance, as measured at Mauna Loa. It is suggested that the decrease in CO 2 level is due to reduced sea surface temperatures, for which there is some direct evidence. The temperature anomaly required to produce the CO 2 level dip is calculated on the basis of several simple models and found to be close to that observed

Running Head: Control and Adjustment of the Rate of Photosynthesis Above Present CO(sub 2) Levels; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, J. Timothy

1996-01-01

The adjustment of photosynthesis to different environmental conditions and especially to elevated CO(sub 2) is often characterized in terms of changes in the processes that establish (limit) the net CO(sub 2) assimilation rate. At slightly above present ambient pCO(sub 2) light-saturated photosynthetic responses to CO(sub 2) depart limitation by the catalytic capacity of tissue rubisco content. An hypothesis attributing this departure to limited thylakoid reaction/electron transport capacity is widely accepted, although we find no experimental evidence in the literature supporting this proposition.. The results of several tests point to the conclusion that the capacity of the thyiakoid reactions cannot be generally responsible for the deviation from rubisco limitation. This conclusion leaves a significant gap in the interpretation of gas exchange responses to CO(sub 2). Since the inputs to the photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle (CO(sub 2) and photon-capture/electron-transport products) do not limit photosynthesis on the shoulder of the A=f(c(sub i)) curve, the control of photosynthesis can be characterized as: due to feedback. Several characteristics of gas exchange and fluorescence that occur when steady-states in this region are perturbed by changes in CO(sub 2) or O(sub 2) suggest significant regulation by conditions other than directly by substrate RuBP levels. A strong candidate to explain these responses is the triose-phosphate flux/ inorganic phosphate regulatory sequence, although not all of the gas exchange characteristics expected with ''TPU-limitation'' are present (e.g. oxygen-insensitive photosynthesis). Interest in nitrogen allocation between rubisco and light capture/electron transport as the basis for photosynthetic adjustment to elevated CO(sub 2) may need to be reconsidered as a result of these findings. Contributors to the feedback regulation of photosynthesis (which may include sucrose phosphate synthase and fructose bisphosphatase activities

Simulating trends in crop yield and soil carbon in a long-term experiment - effects of rising CO2, N deposition and improved cultivation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berntsen, Jørgen; Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Olesen, Jørgen E.

2006-01-01

Measurements of crop yield and soil carbon in the Bad Lauchstädt long-term fertiliser experiment were analysed with the FASSET model. The model satisfactorily predicted yield and soil carbon development in four treatments: no fertiliser, mineral fertiliser, farmyard manure and farmyard manure plus...... was the use of new crop varieties and/or pesticides, while the increase in atmospheris CO2 and changes in local N deposition were of lesser importance. The rise in CO2 thus only explained 9-37% of the yield increase. The observed and simulated developments in soil carbon were quite different in the four...

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-01-01

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2016-03-08

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

CO2 Fluxes Monitoring at the Level of Field Agroecosystem in Moscow Region of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Meshalkina, Joulia; Mazirov, Ilya; Samardzic, Miljan; Yaroslavtsev, Alexis; Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

2014-05-01

The Central Russia is still one of the less GHG-investigated European areas especially in case of agroecosystem-level carbon dioxide fluxes monitoring by eddy covariance method. The eddy covariance technique is a statistical method to measure and calculate vertical turbulent fluxes within atmospheric boundary layers. The major assumption of the metod is that measurements at a point can represent an entire upwind area. Eddy covariance researches, which could be considered as repeated for the same area, are very rare. The research has been carried out on the Precision Farming Experimental Field of the Russian Timiryazev State Agricultural University (Moscow, Russia) in 2013 under the support of RF Government grant No. 11.G34.31.0079. Arable derno-podzoluvisls have around 1 The results have shown high daily and seasonal dynamic of agroecosystem CO2 emission. Sowing activates soil microbiological activity and the average soil CO2 emission and adsorption are rising at the same time. CO2 streams are intensified after crop emerging from values of 3 to 7 μmol/s-m2 for emission, and from values of 5 to 20 μmol/s-m2 for adsorption. Stabilization of the flow has come at achieving plants height of 10-12 cm. The vegetation period is characterized by high average soil CO2 emission and adsorption at the same time, but the adsorption is significantly higher. The resulted CO2 absorption during the day is approximately 2-5 times higher than emissions at night. For example, in mid-June, the absorption value was about 0.45 mol/m2 during the day-time, and the emission value was about 0.1 mol/m2 at night. After harvesting CO2 emission is becoming essentially higher than adsorption. Autumn and winter data are fluctuate around zero, but for some periods a small predominance of CO2 emissions over the absorption may be observed. The daily dynamics of CO2 emissions depends on the air temperature with the correlation coefficient changes between 0.4 and 0.8. Crop stage, agrotechnological

Tuning of CO2 Reduction Selectivity on Metal Electrocatalysts.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuhang; Liu, Junlang; Wang, Yifei; Al-Enizi, Abdullah M; Zheng, Gengfeng

2017-11-01

Climate change, caused by heavy CO 2 emissions, is driving new demands to alleviate the rising concentration of atmospheric CO 2 levels. Enlightened by the photosynthesis of green plants, photo(electro)chemical catalysis of CO 2 reduction, also known as artificial photosynthesis, is emerged as a promising candidate to address these demands and is widely investigated during the past decade. Among various artificial photosynthetic systems, solar-driven electrochemical CO 2 reduction is widely recognized to possess high efficiencies and potentials for practical application. The efficient and selective electroreduction of CO 2 is the key to the overall solar-to-chemical efficiency of artificial photosynthesis. Recent studies show that various metallic materials possess the capability to play as electrocatalysts for CO 2 reduction. In order to achieve high selectivity for CO 2 reduction products, various efforts are made including studies on electrolytes, crystal facets, oxide-derived catalysts, electronic and geometric structures, nanostructures, and mesoscale phenomena. In this Review, these methods for tuning the selectivity of CO 2 electrochemical reduction of metallic catalysts are summarized. The challenges and perspectives in this field are also discussed. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Early deglacial Atlantic overturning decline and its role in atmospheric CO2 rise inferred from carbon isotopes (δ13C

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Schmittner

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The reason for the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 during the last deglaciation remains unknown. Most recent hypotheses invoke Southern Hemisphere processes such as shifts in midlatitude westerly winds. Coeval changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC are poorly quantified, and their relation to the CO2 increase is not understood. Here we compare simulations from a global, coupled climate–biogeochemistry model that includes a detailed representation of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C with a synthesis of high-resolution δ13C reconstructions from deep-sea sediments and ice core data. In response to a prolonged AMOC shutdown initialized from a preindustrial state, modeled δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC decreases in most of the surface ocean and the subsurface Atlantic, with largest amplitudes (more than 1.5‰ in the intermediate-depth North Atlantic. It increases in the intermediate and abyssal South Atlantic, as well as in the subsurface Southern, Indian, and Pacific oceans. The modeled pattern is similar and highly correlated with the available foraminiferal δ13C reconstructions spanning from the late Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~19.5–18.5 ka BP to the late Heinrich stadial event 1 (HS1, ~16.5–15.5 ka BP, but the model overestimates δ13CDIC reductions in the North Atlantic. Possible reasons for the model–sediment-data differences are discussed. Changes in remineralized δ13CDIC dominate the total δ13CDIC variations in the model but preformed contributions are not negligible. Simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 and its isotopic composition (δ13CCO2 agree well with ice core data. Modeled effects of AMOC-induced wind changes on the carbon and isotope cycles are small, suggesting that Southern Hemisphere westerly wind effects may have been less important for the global carbon cycle response during HS1 than previously thought. Our results indicate that during the early deglaciation the AMOC decreased

A STELLA model to estimate soil CO2 emissions from a short-rotation woody crop

Science.gov (United States)

Ying Ouyang; Theodor D. Leininger; Jeff Hatten; Prem B. Parajuli

2012-01-01

The potential for climatic factors as well as soil–plant–climate interactions to change as a result of rising levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration is an issue of increasing international environmental concern. Agricultural and forest practices and managements may be important contributors to mitigating elevated atmospheric CO2...

Beneficial effects of CO2 enrichment to field-grown soybeans under ozone stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, E.H.; Mulchi, C.L.

1991-01-01

Damage from gaseous air pollution [e.g. ozone (O 3 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 )] on crops in the US has been estimated to exceed several billion dollars annually. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased from about 290 ppm in the late 1800's to current levels of 350 ppm. The combined effects of increased CO 2 and O 3 stress have not been studied under field conditions. The present study was conducted to determine the interactive effects of CO 2 enrichment and O 3 stress on the growth and physiology of 'Clark' soybean, testing the hypothesis that elevated CO 2 will ameliorate the effects of O 3 stress. Experiments with soybeans in open-top field chambers showed that increasing CO 2 levels to 400 parts per million (ppm) negated current ambient ozone harmful effects on soybean yields. When ambient O 3 levels were doubled, it was necessary to increase the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to 500 ppm to negate O 3 damage. Rising CO 2 counteracts O 3 pollution. Reduced stomatal conductance and decreased photosynthesis appear to reverse the CO 2 stimulation

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

Science.gov (United States)

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Statistical Evaluation of the Emissions Level Of CO, CO2 and HC Generated by Passenger Cars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudiu Ursu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to make an evaluation of differences emission level of CO, CO2 and HC generated by passenger cars in different walking regimes and times, to identify measures of reducing pollution. Was analyzed a sample of Dacia Logan passenger cars (n = 515, made during the period 2004-2007, equipped with spark ignition engines, assigned to emission standards EURO 3 (E3 and EURO4 (E4. These cars were evaluated at periodical technical inspection (ITP by two times in the two walk regimes (slow idle and accelerated idle. Using the t test for paired samples (Paired Samples T Test, the results showed that there are significant differences between emissions levels (CO, CO2, HC generated by Dacia Logan passenger cars at both assessments, and regression analysis showed that these differences are not significantly influenced by turnover differences.

The effects of prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures and elevated CO2 levels on the growth, yield and dry matter partitioning of field-sown meadow fescue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaija Hakala

1996-05-01

Full Text Available Field-sown meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis, cv. Kalevi stands were exposed to elevated temperatures (+3°C and elevated CO2, (700 ppm levels in two experiments conducted in 1992-1993 (experiment 1 and in 1994-1995 (experiment 2. Total aboveground yield was, on average, 38% higher at elevated than at ambient temperatures. At ambient temperatures elevated CO2 increased the number of tillers by 63% in 1992, 24% in 1993, 90% in 1994 and 14% in 1995. At elevated temperatures, the increase in tiller number in elevated CO2 was seen only in the first growing seasons after sowing. The total yield in a growing season was about 10% higher in elevated CO2 in experiment 1. In experiment 2 the yield was more than 20% higher in elevated CO2 at elevated temperatures, whereas at ambient temperatures the rise in CO2 level had no effect on the yield; the root biomass, however, increased by more than 30%. In elevated CO2 at ambient temperatures the root biomass also increased in experiment I, but at elevated temperatures there was no consistent change. The soluble carbohydrate content of above-ground biomass was 5-48% higher in elevated CO2 at most of the measuring times during the growing season, but the nitrogen content did not show a clear decrease. The reasons for the lack of a marked increase in biomass in elevated CO2 despite a 40-60% increase in photosynthesis are discussed.

Effects of free-air CO2 enrichment on adventitious root development of rice under low and normal soil nitrogen levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengming Sun

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE and nitrogen (N have marked effects on rice root growth, and numerical simulation can explain these effects. To further define the effects of FACE on root growth of rice, an experiment was performed, using the hybrid indica cultivar Xianyou 63. The effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2], 200 μmol mol− 1 higher than ambient, on the growth of rice adventitious roots were evaluated, with two levels of N: low (LN, 125 kg ha− 1 and normal (NN, 250 kg ha− 1. The results showed a significant increase in both adventitious root number (ARN and adventitious root length (ARL under FACE treatment. The application of nitrogen also increased ARN and ARL, but these increases were smaller than that under FACE treatment. On the basis of the FACE experiment, numerical models for rice adventitious root number and length were constructed with time as the driving factor. The models illustrated the dynamic development of rice adventitious root number and length after transplanting, regulated either by atmospheric [CO2] or by N application. The simulation result was supported by statistical tests comparing experimental data from different years, and the model yields realistic predictions of root growth. These results suggest that the models have strong predictive potential under conditions of atmospheric [CO2] rises in the future.

Simulating low frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last 740 000 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Köhler

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 measured in Antarctic ice cores shows a natural variability of 80 to 100 ppmv during the last four glacial cycles and variations of approximately 60 ppmv in the two cycles between 410 and 650 kyr BP. We here use various paleo-climatic records from the EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core and from oceanic sediment cores covering the last 740 kyr to force the ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle BICYCLE in a forward mode over this time in order to interpret the natural variability of CO2. Our approach is based on the previous interpretation of carbon cycle variations during Termination I (Köhler et al., 2005a. In the absense of a process-based sediment module one main simplification of BICYCLE is that carbonate compensation is approximated by the temporally delayed restoration of deep ocean [CO32−]. Our results match the low frequency changes in CO2 measured in the Vostok and the EPICA Dome C ice core for the last 650 kyr BP (r2≈0.75. During these transient simulations the carbon cycle reaches never a steady state due to the ongoing variability of the overall carbon budget caused by the time delayed response of the carbonate compensation to other processes. The average contributions of different processes to the rise in CO2 during Terminations I to V and during earlier terminations are: the rise in Southern Ocean vertical mixing: 36/22 ppmv, the rise in ocean temperature: 26/11 ppmv, iron limitation of the marine biota in the Southern Ocean: 20/14 ppmv, carbonate compensation: 15/7 ppmv, the rise in North Atlantic deep water formation: 13/0 ppmv, the rise in gas exchange due to a decreasing sea ice cover: −8/−7 ppmv, sea level rise: −12/−4 ppmv, and rising terrestrial carbon storage: −13/−6 ppmv. According to our model the smaller interglacial CO2 values in the pre-Vostok period prior to Termination V are mainly caused by smaller interglacial Southern Ocean SST and an Atlantic THC which stayed

Meta-analysis reveals profound responses of plant traits to glacial CO2 levels

OpenAIRE

Temme, A A; Cornwell, W K; Cornelissen, J H C; Aerts, R

2013-01-01

A general understanding of the links between atmospheric CO2 concentration and the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere requires not only an understanding of plant trait responses to the ongoing transition to higher CO2 but also the legacy effects of past low CO2. An interesting question is whether the transition from current to higher CO2 can be thought of as a continuation of the past trajectory of low to current CO2 levels. Determining this trajectory requires quantifying the effect si...

System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2 storage in gas reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

2007-01-01

One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO 2 storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost of CO 2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasis to date on system-level analyses of geological CO 2 storage that consider geological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailed process models to representations of engineering components and associated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop a system-level model for geological CO 2 storage, including CO 2 capture and separation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, and CO 2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailed reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection into a gas reservoir and related enhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associated environmental impacts are also considered. The platform for the system-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim Technology Group; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system model focuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration with enhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. The reservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2 simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO 2 . Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhanced gas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits of CO 2 injection

Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

2016-11-01

Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

Woody biomass production during the second rotation of a bio-energy Populus plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liberloo, M.; Calfapietra, C.; Lukac, M.; Godbold, D.; Luos, Z.B.; Polles, A.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Kull, O.; Marek, M.; Rianes, Chr.; Rubino, M.; Taylors, G.; Scarascia-Mugnozza, G.; Ceulemans, R.

2006-01-01

The quickly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)-levels, justify the need to explore all carbon (C) sequestration possibilities that might mitigate the current CO2 increase. Here, we report the likely impact of future increases in atmospheric CO2 on woody biomass production of three poplar

Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

2014-05-01

Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

Science.gov (United States)

Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

2017-12-01

For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

Application of environmental isotopes to determine the cause of rising water levels in Lake Beseka, Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zemedagegnehu, E.; Travi, Y.; Aggarwal, P.

1999-01-01

Water level in Lake Beskea, located in the Ethiopian Rift Valley, has been rising continuously for the last about 30 years. The surface area of the lake has increased from about 6 Km 2 to the present 40 Km 2 and has posed serious problems for environmental management, including inundation of grazing and cultivated lands and, potentially, railway tracks. Historically, the lake received recharge from precipitation, surface runoff in the catchment, groundwater discharge, surface runoff from nearby thermal springs. As the lake levels have risen, the thermal springs are now submerged. An increase in the discharge form these thermal springs may be the original cause of lake water rise, or they may have been submerged as a result of the rising water level. An initial study conducted in the 1970s attributed the rising lake levels to increased runoff from adjoining irrigated areas. However, stricter controls on irrigation runoff failed to check the rising lake levels. A multi-disciplinary study, including geophysical, hydrological, geochemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques was then initiated to determine the cause(s) of lake level rise. Results of piezometric and geophysical surveys indicate that the principal cause of rising water levels may be the increased inflow from submerged springs in the southwestern portion of the lake

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E.; Zhang Minghua

2010-01-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO 2 , temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO 2 concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO 2 concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO 2 concentration changes. - Agricultural runoff is significantly affected by changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Titus, J G; Kuo, C Y; Gibbs, M J; LaRoche, T B; Webb, M K; Waddell, J O

1987-01-01

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm the earth several degrees in the next century, which would raise sea level a few feet and alter precipitation patterns. Both of these changes would have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems. However, because sea level rise and climate change resulting from the greenhouse effect are still uncertain, most planners and engineers are ignoring the potential implications. Case studies of the potential impact on watersheds in Charleston, South Carolina, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, suggest that the cost of designing a new system to accommodate a rise in sea level will sometimes be small compared with the retrofit cost that may ultimately be necessary if new systems are not designed for a rise. Rather than ignore the greenhouse effect until its consequences are firmly established, engineers and planners should evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to insure that new systems are not vulnerable to the risks of climate change and sea level rise.

Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting

Science.gov (United States)

Lokier, Stephen W.; Court, Wesley M.; Onuma, Takumi; Paul, Andreas

2018-03-01

This study addresses a gap in our understanding of the effects of sea-level rise on the sedimentary systems and morphological development of recent and ancient carbonate ramp settings. Many ancient carbonate sequences are interpreted as having been deposited in carbonate ramp settings. These settings are poorly-represented in the Recent. The study documents the present-day transgressive flooding of the Abu Dhabi coastline at the southern shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf, a carbonate ramp depositional system that is widely employed as a Recent analogue for numerous ancient carbonate systems. Fourteen years of field-based observations are integrated with historical and recent high-resolution satellite imagery in order to document and assess the onset of flooding. Predicted rates of transgression (i.e. landward movement of the shoreline) of 2.5 m yr- 1 (± 0.2 m yr- 1) based on global sea-level rise alone were far exceeded by the flooding rate calculated from the back-stepping of coastal features (10-29 m yr- 1). This discrepancy results from the dynamic nature of the flooding with increased water depth exposing the coastline to increased erosion and, thereby, enhancing back-stepping. A non-accretionary transgressive shoreline trajectory results from relatively rapid sea-level rise coupled with a low-angle ramp geometry and a paucity of sediments. The flooding is represented by the landward migration of facies belts, a range of erosive features and the onset of bioturbation. Employing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Church et al., 2013) predictions for 21st century sea-level rise, and allowing for the post-flooding lag time that is typical for the start-up of carbonate factories, it is calculated that the coastline will continue to retrograde for the foreseeable future. Total passive flooding (without considering feedback in the modification of the shoreline) by the year 2100 is calculated to likely be between 340 and 571 m with a flooding rate of 3

On the design of high-rise buildings with a specified level of reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Dolganov, Andrey; Kagan, Pavel

2018-03-01

High-rise buildings have a specificity, which significantly distinguishes them from traditional buildings of high-rise and multi-storey buildings. Steel structures in high-rise buildings are advisable to be used in earthquake-proof regions, since steel, due to its plasticity, provides damping of the kinetic energy of seismic impacts. These aspects should be taken into account when choosing a structural scheme of a high-rise building and designing load-bearing structures. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of structures. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. The article shows the possibility of designing metal structures of high-rise buildings with specified reliability. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of high-rise buildings. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. It is proposed to establish the value of reliability 0.99865 (3σ) for constructions of buildings and structures of a normal level of responsibility in calculations for the first group of limiting states. For increased (construction of high-rise buildings) and reduced levels of responsibility for the provision of load-bearing capacity, it is proposed to assign respectively 0.99997 (4σ) and 0.97725 (2σ). The coefficients of the use of the cross section of a metal beam for different levels of security are given.

West Antarctic ice sheet and CO/sub 2/ greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mercer, J H

1978-01-26

If the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow at its present rate, atmospheric CO/sub 2/ content will double in about 50 years. Climatic models suggest that the resultant greenhouse-warming effect will be greatly magnified in high latitudes. The computed temperature rise at lat 80/sup 0/S could start rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica, leading to a 5 m rise in sea level.

Uncovering China’s transport CO2 emission patterns at the regional level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Bin; Geng, Yong; Franke, Bernd; Hao, Han; Liu, Yaxuan; Chiu, Anthony

2014-01-01

With China’s rapid economic development, its transport sector has experienced a dramatic growth, leading to a large amount of related CO 2 emission. This paper aims to uncover China’s transport CO 2 emission patterns at the regional and provincial level. We first present the CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces, including per capita emissions, emission intensities, and historical evolution of annual CO 2 emission. We then quantify the related driving forces by adopting both period-wise and time-series LMDI analysis. Results indicate that significant regional CO 2 emission disparities exist in China’s transport sector. The eastern region had higher total CO 2 emissions and per capita CO 2 emissions, but lower CO 2 emission intensities in its transport sector. The western region had higher CO 2 emission intensities and experienced a rapid CO 2 emission increase. The CO 2 emission increments in the eastern provinces were mainly contributed by both economic activity effect and population effect, while energy intensity partially offset the emission growth and energy structure had a marginal effect. However, in the central and western provinces, both economic activity effect and energy intensity effect induced the CO 2 emission increases, while the effects from population and energy structure change were limited. - Highlights: • The CO 2 emission features from transport sector in 30 Chinese provinces were presented. • The driving forces of CO 2 emissions from transport sector were quantified. • Regional disparities on China’s transport sector CO 2 emission exist. • Region-specific mitigation policies on transport sector CO 2 emission are needed

Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Albright

Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

Tropical CO2 seeps reveal the impact of ocean acidification on coral reef invertebrate recruitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Ro; Foggo, Andrew; Fabricius, Katharina; Balistreri, Annalisa; Hall-Spencer, Jason M

2017-11-30

Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are causing ocean acidification by reducing seawater pH and carbonate saturation levels. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that many larval and juvenile marine invertebrates are vulnerable to these changes in surface ocean chemistry, but challenges remain in predicting effects at community and ecosystem levels. We investigated the effect of ocean acidification on invertebrate recruitment at two coral reef CO 2 seeps in Papua New Guinea. Invertebrate communities differed significantly between 'reference' (median pH7.97, 8.00), 'high CO 2 ' (median pH7.77, 7.79), and 'extreme CO 2 ' (median pH7.32, 7.68) conditions at each reef. There were also significant reductions in calcifying taxa, copepods and amphipods as CO 2 levels increased. The observed shifts in recruitment were comparable to those previously described in the Mediterranean, revealing an ecological mechanism by which shallow coastal systems are affected by near-future levels of ocean acidification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring Sea Level Rise-Induced Shoreline Changes and Inundation in Real Time

Science.gov (United States)

Shilling, F.; Waetjen, D.; Grijalva, E.

2016-12-01

We describe a method to monitor shoreline inundation and changes in response to sea level rise (SLR) using a network of time-lapse cameras. We found for coastal tidal marshes that this method was sensitive to vertical changes in sea level of 20 cm has occurred in the San Francisco Bay and other US coastal areas and is likely to rise by another 30-45 cm by mid-century, which will flood and erode many coastal ecosystems, highways, and urban areas. This rapid degree of rise means that it is imperative to co-plan for natural and built systems. Many public facilities are adjacent to shoreline ecosystems, which both protect infrastructure from wave and tide energy and are home to regulated species and habitats. Accurate and timely information about the actual extent of SLR impacts to shorelines will be critical during built-system adaptation. Currently, satellite-sourced imagery cannot provide the spatial or temporal resolution necessary to investigate fine-scale shoreline changes, leaving a gap between predictive models and knowing how, where and when these changes are occurring. The method described is feasible for near-term (1 to 10 years) to long-term application and can be used for measuring fine-resolution shoreline changes (organize photographs that could be combined with related external data (e.g., gauged water levels) to create an information mashup. This information could be used to validate models predicting shoreline inundation and loss, inform SLR-adaptation planning, and to visualize SLR impacts to the public.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

Science.gov (United States)

Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the

Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

2013-01-01

The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

Effects of tillage practice and atmospheric CO2 level on soil CO2 efflux

Science.gov (United States)

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affects both the quantity and quality of plant tissues, which impacts the cycling and storage of carbon (C) within plant/soil systems and thus the rate of CO2 release back to the atmosphere. Research to accurately quantify the effects of elevated CO2 and as...

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

Science.gov (United States)

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris

Science.gov (United States)

Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.

2017-12-01

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr-1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr-1).

Influences of soil volume and an elevated CO[sub 2] level on growth and CO[sub 2] exchange for the crassulacean acid metabolism plant Opuntia ficus-indica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nobel, P.S.; Cui, M.; Miller, P.M.; Luo, Y. (UCLA-DOE Lab., Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States))

1994-01-01

Effects of the current (38 Pa) and an elevated (74 Pa) CO[sub 2] partial pressure on root and shoot areas, biomass accumulation and daily net CO[sub 2] exchange were determined for opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Miller, a highly productive Crassulacean acid metabolism species cultivated worldwide. Plants were grown in environmentally controlled rooms for 18 weeks in pots of three soil volumes (2600, 6500 and 26000 cm[sup 3]), the smallest of which was intended to restrict root growth. For plants in the medium-sized soil volume, basal cladodes tended to be thicker and areas of main and lateral roots tended to be greater as the CO[sub 2] level was doubled. Daughter cladodes tended to be initiated sooner at the current compared with the elevated CO[sub 2] level but total areas were similar by 10 weeks. At 10 weeks, daily net CO[sub 2] uptake for the three soil volumes averaged 24% higher for plants growing under elevated compared with current CO-2 levels, but at 18 weeks only 3% enhancement in uptake occurred. Dry weight gain was enhanced 24% by elevated CO[sub 2] during the first 10 weeks but only 8% over 18 weeks. Increasing the soil volume 10-fold led to a greater stimulation of daily net CO[sub 2] uptake and biomass production than did doubling the CO[sub 2] level. At 18 weeks, root biomass doubled and shoot biomass nearly doubled as the soil volume was increased 10-fold; the effects of soil volume tended to be greater for elevated CO[sub 2]. The amount of cladode nitrogen per unit dry weight decreased as the CO[sub 2] level was raised and increased as soil volume increased, the latter suggesting that the effects of soil volume could be due to nitrogen limitations. (au) (30 refs.)

Coupling of heterotrophic bacteria to phytoplankton bloom development at different pCO2 levels: a mesocosm study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Thyrhaug

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The predicted rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase CO2 concentrations and decrease seawater pH in the upper ocean. Recent studies have revealed effects of pCO2 induced changes in seawater chemistry on a variety of marine life forms, in particular calcifying organisms. To test whether the predicted increase in pCO2 will directly or indirectly (via changes in phytoplankton dynamics affect abundance, activities, and community composition of heterotrophic bacteria during phytoplankton bloom development, we have aerated mesocosms with CO2 to obtain triplicates with three different partial pressures of CO2 (pCO2: 350 μatm (1×CO2, 700 μatm (2×CO2 and 1050 μatm (3×CO2. The development of a phytoplankton bloom was initiated by the addition of nitrate and phosphate. In accordance to an elevated carbon to nitrogen drawdown at increasing pCO2, bacterial production (BPP of free-living and attached bacteria as well as cell-specific BPP (csBPP of attached bacteria were related to the C:N ratio of suspended matter. These relationships significantly differed among treatments. However, bacterial abundance and activities were not statistically different among treatments. Solely community structure of free-living bacteria changed with pCO2 whereas that of attached bacteria seemed to be independent of pCO2 but tightly coupled to phytoplankton bloom development. Our findings imply that changes in pCO2, although reflected by changes in community structure of free-living bacteria, do not directly affect bacterial activity. Furthermore, bacterial activity and dynamics of heterotrophic bacteria, especially of attached bacteria, were tightly correlated to phytoplankton development and, hence, may also potentially depend on changes in pCO2.

Faster turnover of new soil carbon inputs under increased atmospheric CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Osenberg, Craig W; Terrer, César; Carrillo, Yolima; Dijkstra, Feike A; Heath, James; Nie, Ming; Pendall, Elise; Phillips, Richard P; Hungate, Bruce A

2017-10-01

Rising levels of atmospheric CO 2 frequently stimulate plant inputs to soil, but the consequences of these changes for soil carbon (C) dynamics are poorly understood. Plant-derived inputs can accumulate in the soil and become part of the soil C pool ("new soil C"), or accelerate losses of pre-existing ("old") soil C. The dynamics of the new and old pools will likely differ and alter the long-term fate of soil C, but these separate pools, which can be distinguished through isotopic labeling, have not been considered in past syntheses. Using meta-analysis, we found that while elevated CO 2 (ranging from 550 to 800 parts per million by volume) stimulates the accumulation of new soil C in the short term (soil C pool over either temporal scale. Our results are inconsistent with predictions of conventional soil C models and suggest that elevated CO 2 might increase turnover rates of new soil C. Because increased turnover rates of new soil C limit the potential for additional soil C sequestration, the capacity of land ecosystems to slow the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations may be smaller than previously assumed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will increasing temperature and CO2 affect pumpkin early development in Brazilian semi-arid? | O aumento da temperatura e do CO2 afetará o desenvolvimento precoce da abóbora no semi-árido brasileiro?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bárbara França Dantas

2017-06-01

Full Text Available With rising levels of CO2 in atmosphere, understanding possible impacts on development and growth of plants becomes increasingly important. The aim of this study was to evaluate interaction between different temperatures and CO2 levels in germination and early development of seedlings of different species of pumpkin. Seeds of Cucurbita pepo cultivars ‘Caserta’ and ‘Redonda’, and Cucurbita maxima ‘Coroa’ were sown in trays of 36 cells and held in growth chambers with different combinations of levels of CO2 and day/night temperatures. The experimental design was completely randomized in a 2 X 3 factorial scheme with two levels of CO2 concentration (360 and 550ppm and three day/night temperatures (26/20, 29/26 and 32/26°C, with four replicates of 18 seedlings for each treatment. CO2 levels used caused different effects among cultivars for most variables, but a significant change in physiological behavior of seedlings with increasing CO2 concentration was not observed. Increase in temperature led to physiological changes in both seeds and seedlings. The predicted conditions of increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 and temperature are damaging to production of pumpkin seedlings

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Machguth, H.; Rastner, P.; Bolch, T.

2013-01-01

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR...... experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half...... feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity...

Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon

Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.

CO2 and nutrient-driven changes across multiple levels of organization in Zostera noltii ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Crego, B.; Olivé, I.; Santos, R.

2014-12-01

Increasing evidence emphasizes that the effects of human impacts on ecosystems must be investigated using designs that incorporate the responses across levels of biological organization as well as the effects of multiple stressors. Here we implemented a mesocosm experiment to investigate how the individual and interactive effects of CO2 enrichment and eutrophication scale-up from changes in primary producers at the individual (biochemistry) or population level (production, reproduction, and/or abundance) to higher levels of community (macroalgae abundance, herbivory, and global metabolism), and ecosystem organization (detritus release and carbon sink capacity). The responses of Zostera noltii seagrass meadows growing in low- and high-nutrient field conditions were compared. In both meadows, the expected CO2 benefits on Z. noltii leaf production were suppressed by epiphyte overgrowth, with no direct CO2 effect on plant biochemistry or population-level traits. Multi-level meadow response to nutrients was faster and stronger than to CO2. Nutrient enrichment promoted the nutritional quality of Z. noltii (high N, low C : N and phenolics), the growth of epiphytic pennate diatoms and purple bacteria, and shoot mortality. In the low-nutrient meadow, individual effects of CO2 and nutrients separately resulted in reduced carbon storage in the sediment, probably due to enhanced microbial degradation of more labile organic matter. These changes, however, had no effect on herbivory or on community metabolism. Interestingly, individual effects of CO2 or nutrient addition on epiphytes, shoot mortality, and carbon storage were attenuated when nutrients and CO2 acted simultaneously. This suggests CO2-induced benefits on eutrophic meadows. In the high-nutrient meadow, a striking shoot decline caused by amphipod overgrazing masked the response to CO2 and nutrient additions. Our results reveal that under future scenarios of CO2, the responses of seagrass ecosystems will be complex and

Community-level sensitivity of a calcifying ecosystem to acute in situ CO2 enrichment

KAUST Repository

Burdett, HL

2017-11-23

The rate of change in ocean carbonate chemistry is a vital determinant in the magnitude of effects observed. Benthic marine ecosystems are facing an increasing risk of acute CO2 exposure that may be natural or anthropogenically derived (e.g. engineering and industrial activities). However, our understanding of how acute CO2 events impact marine life is restricted to individual organisms, with little understanding for how this manifests at the community level. Here, we investigated in situ the effect of acute CO2 enrichment on the coralline algal ecosystem—a globally ubiquitous, ecologically and economically important habitat, but one which is likely to be sensitive to CO2 enrichment due to its highly calcified reef-like structures engineered by coralline algae. Most notably, we observed a rapid community-level shift to favour net dissolution rather than net calcification. Smaller changes from net respiration to net photosynthesis were also observed. There was no effect on the net flux of DMS/DMSP (algal secondary metabolites), nor on the nutrients nitrate and phosphate. Following return to ambient CO2 levels, only a partial recovery was seen within the monitoring timeframe. This study highlights the sensitivity of biogenic carbonate marine communities to acute CO2 enrichment and raises concerns over the capacity for the system to ‘bounce back’ if subjected to repeated acute high-CO2 events.

Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

flood levels could rise to 20 to 30 cm, but increase significantly from 2100 to 2200 to between 0.5 m and 2.5 m. Aside from the significant increase in flood level, it should be noted that the range over which potential most probable flood levels can vary is significant and defines a tremendous challenge for long-term planning of hazard mitigating measures.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

Science.gov (United States)

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Interactive effects of high CO2 and SO2 on growth and antioxidant levels in wheat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rao, M.V.; De Kok, L.J.

1994-01-01

The impact of elevated CO2 and/or SO2 on the growth and antioxidant levels of wheat {Triticum aestivum L. cv. Urban) plants has been studied. High CO2 (0.7 ml I-1) significantly enhanced shoot biomass and photosynthetic capacity, while exposure to SO2 (0.14 ul I-1) resulted in a decreased shoot

Effects of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherchi, Annalisa; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)

2011-07-15

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO{sub 2} forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarily proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16 x CO{sub 2} experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO{sub 2} sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions (''precipitation-wind paradox''). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales. (orig.)

Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Kharaka, Yousif K.; Cole, David R.; Thordsen, James J.; Gans, Kathleen D.; Thomas, Randal B.

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Riebesell, U; Zondervan, I; Rost, B; Tortell, P D; Zeebe, R E; Morel, F M

2000-09-21

The formation of calcareous skeletons by marine planktonic organisms and their subsequent sinking to depth generates a continuous rain of calcium carbonate to the deep ocean and underlying sediments. This is important in regulating marine carbon cycling and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. The present rise in atmospheric CO2 levels causes significant changes in surface ocean pH and carbonate chemistry. Such changes have been shown to slow down calcification in corals and coralline macroalgae, but the majority of marine calcification occurs in planktonic organisms. Here we report reduced calcite production at increased CO2 concentrations in monospecific cultures of two dominant marine calcifying phytoplankton species, the coccolithophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica. This was accompanied by an increased proportion of malformed coccoliths and incomplete coccospheres. Diminished calcification led to a reduction in the ratio of calcite precipitation to organic matter production. Similar results were obtained in incubations of natural plankton assemblages from the north Pacific ocean when exposed to experimentally elevated CO2 levels. We suggest that the progressive increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may therefore slow down the production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean. As the process of calcification releases CO2 to the atmosphere, the response observed here could potentially act as a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels.

Economics of reducing CO2 emissions from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Zhongxin

1991-01-01

Relative to the nations of the industrialized world, developing countries emit far lower levels of CO 2 per capita. In coming years, however, as the developing world experiences more rapid rates of economic and population growth, their carbon emissions per capita inevitably will rise. Therefore, developing countries should be encouraged both to adopt more advanced energy technologies in order to improve the efficiency of energy exploration, transportation, generation and end-use and to replace carbon-intensive fuels sources with less carbon-intensive sources (non-fossil fuels and renewable energy). By incorporating methods aimed at curtailing carbon emissions into their energy development strategies, developing nations can reduce the risks posed by higher CO 2 emissions. However, adopting more advanced energy technologies generally entails high costs. These higher prices serve as a particularly large obstacle for developing nations. In order to serve the common interest of protecting the global environment, international funds should be devoted to cover the high costs of reducing developing world CO 2 emissions

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Haigh, Ivan D; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J; Price, René M; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B; Calafat, Francisco M; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-04-14

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

1(low vulnerability) and 2 (moderate vulnerability), respectively. In 2050s, 88.8 %, 10.7 % and 0.5 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In 2100s, 85.7 %, 7.3 % , 2.0 % and 5.0 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3(high vulnerability), respectively. At the A1F1 scenario of sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm/a, 91.0 %, 8.7 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands in 2030s were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2 , respectively. In 2050s, 86.9 %, 10.5 % , 2.4 % and 0.2 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In 2100s, 82.4 %, 7.1 % , 2.4 % and 8.1 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The spatiotemporal occurrences of vulnerability were mainly where the subsidence rate is relatively higher and the sedimentation rate is lower or even negative. The results from this study indicated that the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, reducing sediment discharge could give rise to the high risk of a considerable decrease or even habitat loss of coastal wetland in the Yangtze Estuary (particularly in 2050s and 2100s). Therefore some mitigation measures should be considered in the future, including management of sedimentation, reducing land subsidence, recreating and extending wetland habitat, and controlling reclamation.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration effects on rice water use and biomass production.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uttam Kumar

Full Text Available Numerous studies have addressed effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on rice biomass production and yield but effects on crop water use are less well understood. Irrigated rice evapotranspiration (ET is composed of floodwater evaporation and canopy transpiration. Crop coefficient Kc (ET over potential ET, or ETo is crop specific according to FAO, but may decrease as CO2 concentration rises. A sunlit growth chamber experiment was conducted in the Philippines, exposing 1.44-m2 canopies of IR72 rice to four constant CO2 levels (195, 390, 780 and 1560 ppmv. Crop geometry and management emulated field conditions. In two wet (WS and two dry (DS seasons, final aboveground dry weight (agdw was measured. At 390 ppmv [CO2] (current ambient level, agdw averaged 1744 g m-2, similar to field although solar radiation was only 61% of ambient. Reduction to 195 ppmv [CO2] reduced agdw to 56±5% (SE, increase to 780 ppmv increased agdw to 128±8%, and 1560 ppmv increased agdw to 142±5%. In 2013WS, crop ET was measured by weighing the water extracted daily from the chambers by the air conditioners controlling air humidity. Chamber ETo was calculated according to FAO and empirically corrected via observed pan evaporation in chamber vs. field. For 390 ppmv [CO2], Kc was about 1 during crop establishment but increased to about 3 at flowering. 195 ppmv CO2 reduced Kc, 780 ppmv increased it, but at 1560 ppmv it declined. Whole-season crop water use was 564 mm (195 ppmv, 719 mm (390 ppmv, 928 mm (780 ppmv and 803 mm (1560 ppmv. With increasing [CO2], crop water use efficiency (WUE gradually increased from 1.59 g kg-1 (195 ppmv to 2.88 g kg-1 (1560 ppmv. Transpiration efficiency (TE measured on flag leaves responded more strongly to [CO2] than WUE. Responses of some morphological traits are also reported. In conclusion, increased CO2 promotes biomass more than water use of irrigated rice, causing increased WUE, but it does not help saving water. Comparability

The fate of pelagic CaCO3 production in a high CO2 ocean: a model study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Ethe

2007-07-01

Full Text Available This model study addresses the change in pelagic calcium carbonate production (CaCO3, as calcite in the model and dissolution in response to rising atmospheric CO2. The parameterization of CaCO3 production includes a dependency on the saturation state of seawater with respect to calcite. It was derived from laboratory and mesocosm studies on particulate organic and inorganic carbon production in Emiliania huxleyi as a function of pCO2. The model predicts values of CaCO3 production and dissolution in line with recent estimates. The effect of rising pCO2 on CaCO3 production and dissolution was quantified by means of model simulations forced with atmospheric CO2 increasing at a rate of 1% per year from 286 ppm to 1144 ppm over a 140 year time-period. The simulation predicts a decrease of CaCO3 production by 27%. The combined change in production and dissolution of CaCO3 yields an excess uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere by the ocean of 5.9 GtC over the period of 140 years.

Carbonic anhydrase levels and internal lacunar CO/sub 2/ concentrations in aquatic macrophytes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weaver, C.I.

1979-01-01

Carbonic anhydrase levels were examined in a variety of aquatic macrophytes from different habitats. In general, carbonic anhydrase levels increased across the habitat gradient such that activities were low in submersed aquatic macrophytes and high in emergent macrophytes with floating-leaved and free-floating plants exhibiting intermediate activities. Internal lacunar CO/sub 2/ concentrations were analyzed in relation to carbonic anhydrase activities. There was no correlation between these two parameters. Internal CO/sub 2/ concentrations ranged from low to high in submersed macrophytes, but were low in floating-leaved and emergent macrophytes. The observed internal CO/sub 2/ concentrations are discussed in relation to the individual morphologies of the plants and the environments in which they occurred.

Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darwin, R.F.; Tol, R.S.J.

2001-01-01

Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (1) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (2) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (3) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. 43 refs

CO2 and circulation in the deglacial North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.; Rae, J. W. B.; Gray, W. R.; Rees-Owen, R. L.; Burke, A.

2017-12-01

The North Pacific is the largest carbon reservoir in the global ocean, but has not typically been thought to play an active role in deglacial CO2 rise based on its modern stratified state. Recent studies (Okazaki et al., 2010; Rae et al., 2014; Max et al., 2017), however, have suggested that a more dynamic circulation regime operated in the glacial and deglacial North Pacific and, as such, the role of the North Pacific in deglacial CO2 rise may have been underestimated. We present two new high-resolution boron isotope records of surface water pCO2 from the North West and North East Pacific spanning the last 22 kyrs. The two records show remarkable coherence over key intervals during the last deglaciation and highlight major changes over a number of abrupt climate events. At both sites, following the LGM, pCO2(sw) rises, coincident with a younging of North Pacific intermediate and deep waters. This suggests that increased local overturning mixed CO2-rich deep waters throughout the water column, likely contributing to CO2 outgassing during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1). Both records exhibit decreases in pCO2(sw) during the latter stages of HS1, which are immediately followed by a rapid increase in pCO2(sw) at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød (B/A). Radiocarbon and δ13C data indicate a collapse in North Pacific Intermediate Water formation at the onset of the B/A, which, combined with enhanced wind stress curl, would have allowed CO2-rich waters to mix into the surface ocean from intermediate-depths. The combination of high nutrient availability and a seasonally well-stratified mixed layer likely led to the abrupt increase in export productivity across the region; the excess surface water CO2 shows that alleviation of iron or light limitation could not have been its primary cause. Our new records highlight the importance of overturning circulation in the North Pacific in controlling productivity and CO2 release on glacial/interglacial timescales.

Gas Exchange Characteristics in Tectona grandis L. Clones under Varying Concentrations of CO2 Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Saravanan

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The Institute of Forest Genetics and Tree Breeding, Coimbatore, India functioning under the Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, Dehara Dun, has a long term systematic tree improvement program for Tectona grandis aimed to enhancing productivity and screening of clones for site specific. In the process, twenty clones of T. grandis L. were studied for the physiological parameters and water use efficiency with reference to the elevated CO2 levels. CO2 enrichment studies in special chambers help in understanding the changes at individual level, and also at physiological, biochemical and genetic level. It also provides valuable information for establishing plantations at different geographic locations. Considerable variations were observed when the selected 20 clones of T. grandis were subjected to physiological studies under elevated CO2 conditions (600 and 900 mol mol-1. Eight clones exhibited superior growth coupled with favorable physiological characteristics including high photosynthetic rate, carboxylation and water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels. Clones with minimal variation in physiological characteristics under elevated levels of CO2 suggest their ability to overcome physiological stresses and adapt to varying climatic conditions.

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO{sub 2} and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E. [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

2010-01-15

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO{sub 2}, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO{sub 2} concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +-10% and +-20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO{sub 2} concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO{sub 2} concentration changes. - Agricultural runoff is significantly affected by changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration.

Simulation and modeling CO2 absorption in biogas with DEA promoted K2CO3 solution in packed column

Science.gov (United States)

Nurkhamidah, Siti; Altway, Ali; Airlangga, Bramantyo; Emilia, Dwi Putri

2017-05-01

Absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) using potassium carbonate (K2CO3) is one of biogas purification method. However, K2CO3 have slow mass transfer in liquid phase. So it is necessary to eliminate the disadvantage of CO2 absorption using K2CO3 by adding promotor (activator). Diethanol amine (DEA) is one of promotor which can increase its reaction rate. Simulation and modeling research of the CO2 absorption from biogas with DEA promoted K2CO3 solution has not been conducted. Thus, the main goal of this research is create model and simulation for the CO2 absorption from biogas with DEA promoted K2CO3 solution, then observe the influence of promoter concentration. DEA concentration varies between 1-5 %wt. From the simulation, we concluded that the CO2 removal rise with the increasing of promoter concentration. The highest CO2 removal is 54.5318 % at 5 % wt DEA concentration.

Effects of long-term high CO2 exposure on two species of coccolithophores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. G. Schulz

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The physiological performance of two coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus braarudii, was investigated during long-term exposure to elevated pCO2 levels. Mono-specific cultures were grown over 152 (E. huxleyi and 65 (C. braarudii generations while pCO2 was gradually increased to maximum levels of 1150 μatm (E. huxleyi and 930 μatm (C. braarudii and kept constant thereafter. Rates of cell growth and cell quotas of particulate organic carbon (POC, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC and total particulate nitrogen (TPN were determined repeatedly throughout the incubation period. Increasing pCO2 caused a decrease in cell growth rate of 9% and 29% in E. huxleyi and C. braarudii, respectively. In both species cellular PIC:TPN and PIC:POC ratios decreased in response to rising pCO2, whereas no change was observed in the POC:TPN ratios of E. huxleyi and C. braarudii. These results are consistent with those obtained in shorter-term high CO2 exposure experiments following abrupt pertubations of the seawater carbonate system and indicate that for the strains tested here a gradual CO2 increase does not alleviate CO2/pH sensitivity.

Reducing CO2-Emission by using Eco-Cements

Science.gov (United States)

Voit, K.; Bergmeister, K.; Janotka, I.

2012-04-01

CO2 concentration in the air is rising constantly. Globally, cement companies are emitting nearly two billion tonnes/year of CO2 (or around 6 to 7 % of the planet's total CO2 emissions) by producing portland cement clinker. At this pace, by 2025 the cement industry will be emitting CO2 at a rate of 3.5 billion tones/year causing enormous environmental damage (Shi et al., 2011; Janotka et al., 2012). At the dawn of the industrial revolution in the mid-eighteenth century the concentration of CO2 was at a level of ca. 280 ppm. 200 years later at the time of World War II the CO2 level had risen to 310 ppm what results in a rate of increase of 0,15 ppm per year for that period (Shi et al., 2011). In November 2011 the CO2 concentration reached a value of 391 ppm (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 2011), a rise of ca. 81 ppm in 66 years and an increased rate of around 1,2 ppm/year respectively. In the same period cement production in tons of cement has multiplied by a factor of ca. 62 (Kelly & Oss, US Geological Survey, 2010). Thus new CO2-saving eco-cement types are gaining in importance. In these cement types the energy-consuming portland cement clinker is partially replaced by latent hydraulic additives such as blast furnace slag, fly ash or zeolite. These hydraulic additives do not need to be fired in the rotary furnace. They ony need to be pulverized to the required grain size and added to the ground portland cement clinker. Hence energy is saved by skipping the engery-consuming firing process, in addition there is no CO2-degassing as there is in the case of lime burning. Therefore a research project between Austria and Slovakia, funded by the EU (Project ENVIZEO), was initiated in 2010. The main goal of this project is to develop new CEM V eco-types of cements and certificate them for common usage. CEM V is a portland clinker saving cement kind that allows the reduction of clinker to a proportion of 40-64% for CEM V/A and 20-39% for CEM V/B respectively by the

Plant-plant interactions mediate the plastic and genotypic response of Plantago asiatica to CO2 : an experiment with plant populations from naturally high CO2 areas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Loon, Marloes P; Rietkerk, Max; Dekker, Stefan C; Hikosaka, Kouki; Ueda, Miki U; Anten, Niels P R

2016-01-01

Background and Aims The rising atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) is a ubiquitous selective force that may strongly impact species distribution and vegetation functioning. Plant–plant interactions could mediate the trajectory of vegetation responses to elevated [CO2], because some plants may

NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

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B. Greenan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization

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Mingjian Zhu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.

Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

2017-12-01

River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

2017-05-18

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Population-specific responses in physiological rates of Emiliania huxleyi to a broad CO2 range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Although coccolithophore physiological responses to CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry have been widely studied in the past, there is limited knowledge on the variability of physiological responses between populations from different areas. In the present study, we investigated the specific responses of growth, particulate organic (POC and inorganic carbon (PIC production rates of three populations of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi from three regions in the North Atlantic Ocean (Azores: six strains, Canary Islands: five strains, and Norwegian coast near Bergen: six strains to a CO2 partial pressure (pCO2 range from 120 to 2630 µatm. Physiological rates of each population and individual strain increased with rising pCO2 levels, reached a maximum and declined thereafter. Optimal pCO2 for growth, POC production rates, and tolerance to low pH (i.e., high proton concentration was significantly higher in an E. huxleyi population isolated from the Norwegian coast than in those isolated near the Azores and Canary Islands. This may be due to the large environmental variability including large pCO2 and pH fluctuations in coastal waters off Bergen compared to the rather stable oceanic conditions at the other two sites. Maximum growth and POC production rates of the Azores and Bergen populations were similar and significantly higher than that of the Canary Islands population. This pattern could be driven by temperature–CO2 interactions where the chosen incubation temperature (16 °C was slightly below what strains isolated near the Canary Islands normally experience. Our results indicate adaptation of E. huxleyi to their local environmental conditions and the existence of distinct E. huxleyi populations. Within each population, different growth, POC, and PIC production rates at different pCO2 levels indicated strain-specific phenotypic plasticity. Accounting for this variability is important to understand how or whether E

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous

Methods and problems in assessing the impacts of accelerated sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Dennis, Karen C.; Volonte, Claudio R.; Leatherman, Stephen P.

1992-06-01

Accelerated sea-level rise is one of the more certain responses to global warming and presents a major challenge to mankind. However, it is important to note that sea-level rise is only manifest over long timescales (decades to centuries). Coastal scientists are increasingly being called upon to assess the physical, economic and societal impacts of sea-level rise and hence investigate appropriate response strategies. Such assessments are difficult in many developing countries due to a lack of physical, demographic and economic data. In particular, there is a lack of appropriate topographic information for the first (physical) phase of the analysis. To overcome these difficulties we have developed a new rapid and low-cost reconnaissance technique: ``aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis'' (AVA). It involves: 1) videotaping the coastline from a small airplane; 2) limited ground-truth measurements; and 3) archive research. Combining the video record with the ground-truth information characterizes the coastal topography and, with an appropriate land loss model, estimates of the physical impact for different sea-level rise scenarios can be made. However, such land loss estimates raise other important questions such as the appropriate seaward limit of the beach profile. Response options also raise questions such as the long-term costs of seawalls. Therefore, realistic low and high estiimates were developed. To illustrate the method selected results from Senegal, Uruguay and Venezuela are presented.

ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

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A. I. A. Hamid

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Why is the Groundwater Level Rising? A Case Study Using HARTT to Simulate Groundwater Level Dynamic.

Science.gov (United States)

Yihdego, Yohannes; Danis, Cara; Paffard, Andrew

2017-12-01

  Groundwater from a shallow unconfined aquifer at a site in coastal New South Wales has been causing recent water logging issues. A trend of rising groundwater level has been anecdotally observed over the last 10 years. It was not clear whether the changes in groundwater levels were solely natural variations within the groundwater system or whether human interference was driving the level up. Time series topographic images revealed significant surrounding land use changes and human modification to the environment of the groundwater catchment. A statistical model utilising HARTT (multiple linear regression hydrograph analysis method) simulated the groundwater level dynamics at five key monitoring locations and successfully showed a trend of rising groundwater level. Utilising hydrogeological input from field investigations, the model successfully simulated the rise in the water table over time to the present day levels, whilst taking into consideration rainfall and land changes. The underlying geological/land conditions were found to be just as significant as the impact of climate variation. The correlation coefficient for the monitoring bores (MB), excluding MB4, show that the groundwater level fluctuation can be explained by the climate variable (rainfall) with the lag time between the atypical rainfall and groundwater level ranging from 4 to 7 months. The low R2 value for MB4 indicates that there are factors missing in the model which are primarily related to human interference. The elevated groundwater levels in the affected area are the result of long term cumulative land use changes, instigated by humans, which have directly resulted in detrimental changes to the groundwater aquifer properties.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

2012-01-01

Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

Global CO2 rise leads to reduced maximum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lammertsma, E.I.; de Boer, H.J.; Dekker, S.C.; Dilcher, D.L.; Lotter, A.F.; Wagner-Cremer, F.

2011-01-01

A principle response of C3 plants to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (CO2) is to reduce transpirational water loss by decreasing stomatal conductance (gs) and simultaneously increase assimilation rates. Via this adaptation, vegetation has the ability to alter hydrology and climate.

A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Perrette

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

Mineral nutrition and plant responses to elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahluwalia, A.

1996-08-01

The atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}, a radiatively-active ({open_quotes}green-house{close_quotes}) gas, is increasing. This increase is considered a post-industrial phenomenon attributable to increasing rates of fossil fuel combustion and changing land use practices, particularly deforestation. Climate changes resulting from such elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, in addition to the direct effects of increased CO{sub 2}, are expected to modify the productivity of forests and alter species distributions. Elevated levels of CO{sub 2} have been shown, in some cases, to lead to enhanced growth rates in plants, particularly those with C{sub 3} metabolism - indicating that plant growth is CO{sub 2}-limited in these situations. Since the major process underlying growth is CO{sub 2} assimilation via photosynthesis in leaves, plant growth represents a potential for sequestering atmospheric carbon into biomass, but this potential could be hampered by plant carbon sink size. Carbon sinks are utilization sites for assimilated carbon, enabling carbon assimilation to proceed without potential inhibition from the accumulation of assimilate (photosynthate). Plant growth provides new sinks for assimilated carbon which permits greater uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, sinks are, on the whole, reduced in size by stress events due to the adverse effects of stress on photosynthetic rates and therefore growth. This document reviews some of the literature on plant responses to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and to inadequate nutrient supply rates, and with this background, the potential for nutrient-limited plants to respond to increasing carbon dioxide is addressed. Conclusions from the literature review are then tested experimentally by means of a case study exploring carbon-nitrogen interactions in seedlings of loblolly pine.

Atmospheric CO2 fertilization effects on biomass yields of 10 crops in northern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan F. Degener

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The quality and quantity of the influence that atmospheric CO2 has on cropgrowth is still a matter of debate. This study's aim is to estimate if CO2 will have an effect on biomass yields at all, to quantify and spatially locate the effects and to explore if an elevated photosynthesis rate or water-use-efficiency is predominantly responsible. This study uses a numerical carbon based crop model (BioSTAR to estimate biomass yields within theadministrative boundaries of Niedersachsen in Northern Germany. 10 crops are included (winter grains: wheat, barley,rye, triticale - early, medium, late maize variety - sunflower, sorghum, spring wheat, modeled annuallyfor the entire 21st century on 91,014 separate sites. Modeling was conducted twice, once with an annually adaptedCO2 concentration according to the SRES-A1B scenario and once with a fixed concentration of 390 ppm to separate the influence of CO2 from that of the other input variables.Rising CO2 concentrations will play a central role in keeping future yields of all crops above or aroundtoday's level. Differences in yields between modeling with fixed or adapted CO2 can be as high as60 % towards the century's end. Generally yields will increase when CO2 rises and decline whenit is kept constant. As C4-crops are equivalently affected it is presumed that anelevated efficiency in water use is the main responsible factor for all plants.

How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

Science.gov (United States)

Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

2014-01-01

Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.

2018-03-01

We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

2013-01-01

Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2

The non-steady state oceanic CO2 signal: its importance, magnitude and a novel way to detect it

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. I. McNeil

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The role of the ocean has been pivotal in modulating rising atmospheric CO2 levels since the industrial revolution, sequestering nearly half of all fossil-fuel derived CO2 emissions. Net oceanic uptake of CO2 has roughly doubled between the 1960s (~1 Pg C yr−1 and 2000s (~2 Pg C yr−1, with expectations that it will continue to absorb even more CO2 with rising future atmospheric CO2 levels. However, recent CO2 observational analyses along with numerous model predictions suggest the rate of oceanic CO2 uptake is already slowing, largely as a result of a natural decadal-scale outgassing signal. This recent CO2 outgassing signal represents a significant shift in our understanding of the oceans role in modulating atmospheric CO2. Current tracer-based estimates for the ocean storage of anthropogenic CO2 assume the ocean circulation and biology is in steady state, thereby missing the new and potentially important "non-steady state" CO2 outgassing signal. By combining data-based techniques that assume the ocean is in a steady state, with techniques that constrain the net oceanic CO2 uptake signal, we show how to extract the non-steady state CO2 signal from observations. Over the entire industrial era, the non-steady state CO2 outgassing signal (~13 ± 10 Pg C is estimated to represent about 9% of the total net CO2 inventory change (~142 Pg C. However, between 1989 and 2007, the non-steady state CO2 outgassing signal (~6.3 Pg C has likely increased to be ~18% of net oceanic CO2 storage over that period (~36 Pg C. The present uncertainty of our data-based techniques for oceanic CO2 uptake limit our capacity to quantify the non-steady state CO2 signal, however with more data and better certainty estimates across a range of diverse methods, this important and growing CO2 signal could be better constrained in the future.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Changing noise levels in a high CO2/lower pH ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, P. G.; Hester, K. C.; Peltzer, E. T.; Kirkwood, W. J.

2008-12-01

We show that ocean acidification from fossil fuel CO2 invasion and from increased respiration/reduced ventilation, has significantly reduced ocean sound absorption and thus increased ocean noise levels in the kHz frequency range. Below 10 kHz, sound absorption occurs due to well known chemical relaxations in the B(OH)3/B(OH)4- and HCO3-/CO32- systems. The pH dependence of these chemical relaxations results in decreased sound absorption (α = dB/km) as the ocean becomes more acidic from increased CO2 levels. The scale of surface ocean pH change today from the +105 ppmv change in atmospheric CO2 is about - 0.12 pH, resulting in frequency dependent decreases in sound absorption that now exceed 12% over pre- industrial. Under reasonable projections of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions and other sources a pH change of 0.3 units or more can be anticipated by mid-century, resulting in a decrease in α by almost 40%. Increases in water temperature have a smaller effect but also contribute to decreased sound absorption. Combining a lowering of 0.3 pH units with an increase of 3°C, α will decrease further to almost 45%. Ambient noise levels in the ocean within the auditory range critical for environmental, military, and economic interests are set to increase significantly due to the combined effects of decreased absorption and increasing sources from mankind's activities. Incorporation of sound absorption in modeling future ocean scenarios (R. Zeebe, personal communication) and long-term monitoring possibly with the aid of modern cabled observatories can give insights in how ocean noise will continue to change and its effect on groups such as marine mammals which communicate in the affected frequency range.

CO2-induced seawater acidification affects physiological performance of the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Riebesell

2010-09-01

Full Text Available CO2/pH perturbation experiments were carried out under two different pCO2 levels (39.3 and 101.3 Pa to evaluate effects of CO2-induced ocean acidification on the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum. After acclimation (>20 generations to ambient and elevated CO2 conditions (with corresponding pH values of 8.15 and 7.80, respectively, growth and photosynthetic carbon fixation rates of high CO2 grown cells were enhanced by 5% and 12%, respectively, and dark respiration stimulated by 34% compared to cells grown at ambient CO2. The half saturation constant (Km for carbon fixation (dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC increased by 20% under the low pH and high CO2 condition, reflecting a decreased affinity for HCO3– or/and CO2 and down-regulated carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM. In the high CO2 grown cells, the electron transport rate from photosystem II (PSII was photoinhibited to a greater extent at high levels of photosynthetically active radiation, while non-photochemical quenching was reduced compared to low CO2 grown cells. This was probably due to the down-regulation of CCM, which serves as a sink for excessive energy. The balance between these positive and negative effects on diatom productivity will be a key factor in determining the net effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on ocean primary production.

Carbon dioxide sequestration: Modeling the diffusive and convective transport under a CO2 cap

KAUST Repository

Allen, Rebecca

2012-01-01

A rise in carbon dioxide levels from industrial emissions is contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. CO2 sequestration in saline aquifers is a strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels. Scientists and researchers rely on numerical simulators to predict CO2 storage by modeling the fluid transport behaviour. Studies have shown that after CO2 is injected into a saline aquifer, undissolved CO2 rises due to buoyant forces and will spread laterally away from the injection site under an area of low permeability. CO2 from this ‘capped\\' region diffuses into the fluid underlying it, and the resulting CO2-fluid mixture increases in density. This increase in density leads to gravity-driven convection. Accordingly, diffusive-convective transport is important to model since it predicts an enhanced storage capacity of the saline aquifer. This work incorporates the diffusive and convective transport processes into the transport modeling equation, and uses a self-generated code. Discretization of the domain is done with a cell-centered finite difference method. Cases are set up using similar parameters from published literature in order to compare results. Enhanced storage capacity is predicted in this work, similar to work done by others. A difference in the onset of convective transport between this work and published results is noticed and discussed in this paper. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the density model used in this work, and on the diffusivity value assumed. The analysis shows that the density model and diffusivity value is a key component on simulation results. Also, perturbations are added to porosity and permeability in order to see the effect of perturbations on the onset of convection, and results agree with similar findings by others. This work provides a basis for studying other cases, such as the impact of heterogeneity on the diffusion-convective transport. An extension of this work may involve the use of an equation of state to

The effect of light level, CO2 flow rate, and anesthesia on the stress response of mice during CO2 euthanasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Karin; Ethun, Kelly; Taylor, Douglas K

2016-09-21

Euthanasia protocols are designed to mitigate the stress experienced by animals, and an environment that induces minimal stress helps achieve that goal. A protocol that is efficient and practical in a typical animal research facility is also important. Light intensity, isoflurane, and CO2 flow rate were studied for their impact on the stress response of mice during CO2 euthanasia. Behavior was observed and scored during euthanasia and serum corticosterone was measured immediately after death. Unsurprisingly, animals euthanized with a high-flow rate of CO2 became unconscious in the least amount of time, while animals euthanized with a low-flow rate required the most time to reach unconsciousness. There was a significant increase in anxious behaviors in animals in the isoflurane group (F1,12 = 6.67, P = 0.024), the high-flow rate CO2 group (F1,12 = 10.24, P = 0.007), and bright chamber group (F1,12 = 7.27, P = 0.019). Serum corticosterone was highest in the isoflurane group (124.72 ± 83.98 ng/ml), however there was no significant difference in corticosterone levels observed for the other study variables of light and flow-rate. A darkened chamber and low CO2 flow rates help to decrease stress experienced during CO2 euthanasia, while the use of isoflurane was observed to increase the stress response during euthanasia.

Enhanced abundance of tintinnids under elevated CO2 level from coastal Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Biswas, H.; Gadi, S.D.; Venkataramana, V.; Bharathi, M.D.; Priyan, R.K.; Manjari, D.T.; DileepKumar, M.

of marine plankton to increasing CO2 concentrations. Natural water samples from the coastal Bay of Bengal were incubated under the ambient condition and high CO2 levels (703-711 latm) for 5 days in May and June 2010. A significant negative correlation...

Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Protection from Southern Mediterranean to the U.S.A. Atlantic Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Nabil; Williams, Jeffress

2013-04-01

planning and restoration projects will require a major undertaking by national governments and international institutions. Joint research projects between international organizations such as: USA research centers ( USGS, NOAA, Corps of Engineers), EU sponsored project groups, EU coastal marine centers as well as other world wide coastal research institutes (CoRI, Alexandria) are encouraged to advance the state of the art on managing coasts to adapt to sea level rise employing cost-effective coastal protection technologies. References 1.Williams, S.J.,"Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Regions", Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 63, 2013. 2.Ismail, N.,Wiegel, R., "Sustainable Solutions for Coastal Zone Management of Lowland and River Delta Coastlines", Proc. International Conference- Littoral 2012, Ostende, Belgium, November 27-29, 2012. 3.Ismail, N., Iskander, M., and El-Sayed, W. "Assessment of Coastal Flooding at Southern Mediterranean with Global Outlook for Lowland Coastal Zones", Proc. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, July 1-6, 2012, Santander, Spain. 4.Moser, S. C., Williams,J.S., and Boesch, D. F., " Wicked Challenges at Land's End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change'', Annual. Review of Environmental Resources, 37:51-78, 2012.

Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

2017-04-01

Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

Effect of increased pCO2 level on early shell development in great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck larvae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Andersen

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As a result of high anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, causing a decrease in pH, known as ocean acidification (OA. Numerous studies have shown negative effects on marine invertebrates, and also that the early life stages are the most sensitive to OA. We studied the effects of OA on embryos and unfed larvae of the great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck, at pCO2 levels of 469 (ambient, 807, 1164, and 1599 μatm until seven days after fertilization. To our knowledge, this is the first study on OA effects on larvae of this species. A drop in pCO2 level the first 12 h was observed in the elevated pCO2 groups due to a discontinuation in water flow to avoid escape of embryos. When the flow was restarted, pCO2 level stabilized and was significantly different between all groups. OA affected both survival and shell growth negatively after seven days. Survival was reduced from 45% in the ambient group to 12% in the highest pCO2 group. Shell length and height were reduced by 8 and 15%, respectively, when pCO2 increased from ambient to 1599 μatm. Development of normal hinges was negatively affected by elevated pCO2 levels in both trochophore larvae after two days and veliger larvae after seven days. After seven days, deformities in the shell hinge were more connected to elevated pCO2 levels than deformities in the shell edge. Embryos stained with calcein showed fluorescence in the newly formed shell area, indicating calcification of the shell at the early trochophore stage between one and two days after fertilization. Our results show that P. maximus embryos and early larvae may be negatively affected by elevated pCO2 levels within the range of what is projected towards year 2250, although the initial drop in pCO2 level may have overestimated the effect of the highest pCO2 levels. Future work should focus on long-term effects on this species from hatching, throughout the larval stages, and further into the

Bangladesh’s dynamic coastal regions and sea-level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugh Brammer

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The physical geography of Bangladesh’s coastal area is more diverse and dynamic than is generally recognised. Failure to recognise this has led to serious misconceptions about the potential impacts of a rising sea-level on Bangladesh with global warming. This situation has been aggravated by accounts giving incorrect information on current rates of coastal erosion and land subsidence. This paper describes physical conditions within individual physiographic regions in Bangladesh’s coastal area based on ground-surveyed information, and it reviews possible area-specific mitigation measures to counter predicted rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century. Two important conclusions are drawn: the adoption of appropriate measures based on knowledge of the physical geography of potentially-affected areas could significantly reduce the currently-predicted displacement of many millions of people; and the impacts of a slowly-rising sea-level are currently much less than those generated by rapidly increasing population pressure on Bangladesh’s available land and water resources and by exposure to existing environmental hazards, and the latter problems need priority attention.

The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irvine, Peter J; Lunt, Daniel J; Stone, Emma J; Ridgwell, Andy

2009-01-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering has been proposed as one means of helping avoid the occurrence of dangerous climate change and undesirable state transitions ('tipping points') in the Earth system. The irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a case in point-a state transition that could occur as a result of CO 2 -driven elevated global temperatures, and one leading to potentially catastrophic sea-level rise. SRM schemes such as the creation of a 'sunshade' or injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere could reduce incoming solar radiation, and in theory balance, in a global mean, the greenhouse warming resulting from elevated concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Previous work has highlighted that a geoengineered world would have: warming towards the poles, cooling in the tropics, and a reduction in the global hydrological cycle, which may have important implications for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using a fully coupled global climate model in conjunction with an ice sheet model, we assess the consequences for the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet of the reorganization of climate patterns by the combination of high CO 2 and geoengineering. We find that Greenland surface temperature and precipitation anomalies, compared to the pre-industrial situation, decrease almost linearly with increasing levels of SRM geoengineering, but that these combine to create a highly non-linear response of the ice sheet. The substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet predicted for four times pre-industrial CO 2 levels is prevented in our model with only a partial application of SRM, and hence without having to fully restore the global average temperature back to pre-industrial levels. This suggests that the degree of SRM geoengineering required to mitigate the worst impacts of greenhouse warming, such as sea-level rise, need not be as extensive as generally assumed.

Late Cretaceous climate simulations with different CO2 levels and subarctic gateway configurations: A model-data comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Niezgodzki, Igor; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit; Tyszka, Jarosław; Markwick, Paul J.

2017-09-01

We investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low- (high-) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model-data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy-data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes.

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

Science.gov (United States)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Dunbar, R. R.

2017-12-01

The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community

Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

2011-01-01

Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

Soil Carbon Storage and N{sub 2}O Emissions from Wheat Agroecosystems as Affected by Free-Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) and Nitrogen Treatments. Annual Progress Report - Year 1: August 1, 1996 to July 31, 1997 [Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leavitt, S.W.; Matthias, A.; Thompson, T.L.

1999-02-17

Rising atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have prompted concern about response of plants and crops to future elevated CO{sub 2} levels, and particularly the extent to which ecosystems will sequester carbon and thus impact the rate of rise of CO{sub 2} concentrations. Free-air CO{sub 2} enrichment (FACE) experimentation was used with wheat agroecosystems for two growing seasons to assess effects of CO{sub 2} and soil nitrogen. Over 20 researchers on this experiment variously examined plant production and grow yield, phenology, length of growing season, water-use efficiency, ecosystem productivity, below ground processes (root and microbial activity, carbon and nitrogen cycling), etc.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Observations of CO{sub 2} clathrate hydrate formation and dissolution under deep-ocean disposal conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warzinski, R.P.; Cugini, A.V. [Department of Energy, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Holder, G.D. [Univ. of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

1995-11-01

Disposal of anthropogenic emissions of CO{sub 2} may be required to mitigate rises in atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas if other measures are ineffective and the worst global warming scenarios begin to occur. Long-term storage of large quantities of CO{sub 2} has been proposed, but the feasibility of large land and ocean disposal options remains to be established. Determining the fate of liquid CO{sub 2} injected into the ocean at depths greater than 500 m is complicated by uncertainties associated with the physical behavior of CO{sub 2} under these conditions, in particular the possible formation of the ice-like CO{sub 2} clathrate hydrate. Resolving this issue is key to establishing the technical feasibility of this option. Experimental and theoretical work in this area is reported.

Total (fumarolic?+?diffuse soil) CO2 output from Furnas volcano

OpenAIRE

Pedone, M.; Viveiros, F.; Aiuppa, A.; Giudice, G.; Grassa, F.; Gagliano, A. L.; Francofonte, V.; Ferreira, T.

2015-01-01

Furnas volcano, in S?o Miguel island (Azores), being the surface expression of rising hydrothermal steam, is the site of intense carbon dioxide (CO2) release by diffuse degassing and fumaroles. While the diffusive CO2 output has long (since the early 1990s) been characterized by soil CO2 surveys, no information is presently available on the fumarolic CO2 output. Here, we performed (in August 2014) a study in which soil CO2 degassing survey was combined for the first time with the measurement ...

Recalibrating the Ginkgo Stomatal Index Proxy for Past CO2 with Herbarium Specimens

Science.gov (United States)

Conde, G. D.; Retallack, G.

2015-12-01

The stomatal index of plant cuticles is inversely related to atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as calibrated from greenhouse experiments and herbarium specimens. Such calibration data for Ginkgo biloba are available for the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 and for high levels of CO2 anticipated in the future, but lacking for low CO2 levels of preindustrial and glacial ages. The oldest modern specimen that we have been able to obtain consists of leaf fragments collected in 1829 and provided by Arne Anderberg from the Swedish Natural History Museum. The specimen was labeled "Argentina", but also "Hortus Botanicus Augustinus", a garden founded in 1638 in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Ginkgo has a very thin cuticle that is difficult to prepare, but images very similar to cuticular preparation can be obtained by backscatter SEM imagery. We also obtained secondary SEM images of the same areas and counted 13 images with 6,184 cells from five leaf fragments. Our analyses yield a stomatal index of 10.9 ± 0.9 % for an atmospheric CO2 of 286 ppm, as determined by ice core data from Ciais and Sabine for IPCC-2013. This value is lower than from previous calibration curves for this level of CO2 and changes their curvature. With additional late nineteenth, twentieth and twenty-first century leaves, we can improve both the precision and lower limits of the transfer function for atmospheric CO2 from Ginkgo stomatal index last revised in 2009.

Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.

2012-12-01

Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Rising cyclin-CDK levels order cell cycle events.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Oikonomou

Full Text Available Diverse mitotic events can be triggered in the correct order and time by a single cyclin-CDK. A single regulator could confer order and timing on multiple events if later events require higher cyclin-CDK than earlier events, so that gradually rising cyclin-CDK levels can sequentially trigger responsive events: the "quantitative model" of ordering.This 'quantitative model' makes predictions for the effect of locking cyclin at fixed levels for a protracted period: at low cyclin levels, early events should occur rapidly, while late events should be slow, defective, or highly variable (depending on threshold mechanism. We titrated the budding yeast mitotic cyclin Clb2 within its endogenous expression range to a stable, fixed level and measured time to occurrence of three mitotic events: growth depolarization, spindle formation, and spindle elongation, as a function of fixed Clb2 level. These events require increasingly more Clb2 according to their normal order of occurrence. Events occur efficiently and with low variability at fixed Clb2 levels similar to those observed when the events normally occur. A second prediction of the model is that increasing the rate of cyclin accumulation should globally advance timing of all events. Moderate (<2-fold overexpression of Clb2 accelerates all events of mitosis, resulting in consistently rapid sequential cell cycles. However, this moderate overexpression also causes a significant frequency of premature mitoses leading to inviability, suggesting that Clb2 expression level is optimized to balance the fitness costs of variability and catastrophe.We conclude that mitotic events are regulated by discrete cyclin-CDK thresholds. These thresholds are sequentially triggered as cyclin increases, yielding reliable order and timing. In many biological processes a graded input must be translated into discrete outputs. In such systems, expression of the central regulator is likely to be tuned to an optimum level, as we

Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

2013-01-01

Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global warming and sea level rise. Chikyu Ondanka to kaimen josho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mimura, N [Ibaraki University, Ibaraki (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1993-10-15

This paper describes the following matters on the problems of global warming and sea level rise. The first evaluation report published by the inter-government panel on climate change (IPCC) in 1990 estimates that, if emission of greenhouse effect gas keeps increasing at the present rate, the air temperature and the average sea level would rise by 3[degree]C and 65 centimeters, respectively by 2100. Global warming would not only result in rise of the sea level, but also accompany changes in strengths and routes of tropical low pressure areas, and precipitation patterns. Downstream areas of large rivers and island countries on coral reefs may have a risk of getting submerged. Countries having coasts developed to high densities (Japan, for example) would be subjected to a high potential effect. An 'East Hemisphere International Conference on Sea Level Rising Problem' was held in Japan in August 1993 as part of the works to prepare the second evaluation report of the IPCC (publication scheduled for 1995). The conference was attended by 24 countries, and 43 study results were reported. 4 figs.

Soil Carbon Storage and N(sub 2)O Emissions from Wheat Agroecosystems as Affected by Free-Air CO(sub 2) Enrichment (FACE) and Nitrogen Treatments. Annual Progress Report - Year 1: August 1, 1996 to July 31, 1997[Final Report]; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leavitt, S.W.; Matthias, A.; Thompson, T.L.

1999-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO(sub 2) concentrations have prompted concern about response of plants and crops to future elevated CO(sub 2) levels, and particularly the extent to which ecosystems will sequester carbon and thus impact the rate of rise of CO(sub 2) concentrations. Free-air CO(sub 2) enrichment (FACE) experimentation was used with wheat agroecosystems for two growing seasons to assess effects of CO(sub 2) and soil nitrogen. Over 20 researchers on this experiment variously examined plant production and grow yield, phenology, length of growing season, water-use efficiency, ecosystem productivity, below ground processes (root and microbial activity, carbon and nitrogen cycling), etc

Does growth under elevated CO{sub 2} moderate photoacclimation in rice?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hubbart, S.; Murchie, E.H.; Lake, J.A. [Univ. of Nottingham. School of Bioscience, Sutton Bonington (United Kingdom); Bird, S. [Univ. of York. Centre for Novel Agricultural Products, Dept. of Biology, York (United Kingdom)

2013-06-01

Acclimation of plant photosynthesis to light irradiance (photoacclimation) involves adjustments in levels of pigments and proteins and larger scale changes in leaf morphology. To investigate the impact of rising atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop physiology, we hypothesize that elevated CO{sub 2} interacts with photoacclimation in rice (Oryza sativa). Rice was grown under high light (HL: 700 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}), low light (LL: 200 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}), ambient CO{sub 2} (400 {mu}l l{sup -1}) and elevated CO{sub 2} (1000 {mu}l l{sup -1}). Leaf six was measured throughout. Obscuring meristem tissue during development did not alter leaf thickness indicating that mature leaves are responsible for sensing light during photoacclimation. Elevated CO{sub 2} raised growth chamber photosynthesis and increased tiller formation at both light levels, while it increased leaf length under LL but not under HL. Elevated CO{sub 2} always resulted in increased leaf growth rate and tiller production. Changes in leaf thickness, leaf area, Rubisco content, stem and leaf starch, sucrose and fructose content were all dominated by irradiance and unaffected by CO{sub 2}. However, stomata responded differently; they were significantly smaller in LL grown plants compared to HL but this effect was significantly suppressed under elevated CO{sub 2}. Stomatal density was lower under LL, but this required elevated CO{sub 2} and the magnitude was adaxial or abaxial surface-dependent. We conclude that photoacclimation in rice involves a systemic signal. Furthermore, extra carbohydrate produced under elevated CO{sub 2} is utilized in enhancing leaf and tiller growth and does not enhance or inhibit any feature of photoacclimation with the exception of stomatal morphology. (Author)

Can Increased CO2 Levels Trigger a Runaway Greenhouse on the Earth?

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Ramirez, R.

2014-04-01

Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations suggest that increased atmospheric CO2 could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse if CO2 concentrations were approximately 100 times higher than today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations, which indicated that CO2 increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO2 concentrations. Goldblatt et al. argue that this different behavior is a consequence of updated absorption coefficients for H2O that make a runaway more likely. Here, we use a 1-D cloud-free climate model with similar, up-to-date absorption coefficients, but with a self-consistent methodology, to demonstrate that CO2 increases cannot induce a runaway greenhouse on the modern Earth. However, these initial calculations do not include cloud feedback, which may be positive at higher temperatures, destabilizing Earth's climate. We then show new calculations demonstrating that cirrus clouds cannot trigger a runaway, even in the complete absence of low clouds. Thus, the habitability of an Earth-like planet at Earth's distance appears to be ensured, irrespective of the sign of cloud feedback. Our results are of importance to Earth-like planets that receive similar insolation levels as does the Earth and to the ongoing question about cloud response at higher temperatures.

Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...

The potential effects of concurrent increases in temperature, CO2 and O3 on net photosynthesis, as mediated by rubisCO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, S.; Essex Univ., Colchester

1992-07-01

At the leaf level, under light saturating and light limiting conditions, it is shown that elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration not only alters the scale of the response of carbon gain to rising temperature, but can alter the direction of response. These points bring into serious question the value of any predictions of plant production which ignore not only the direct effect Of C0 2 on carbon gain, but also the basic interactions of temperature, C0 2 and 0 3 . Whilst many factors may potentially diminish the enhancement of lightsaturated leaf photosynthetic rates with increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, no mechanism has so far been identified which could remove the parallel stimulation of light-limited photosynthesis

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

Does elevated pCO2 affect reef octocorals?

Science.gov (United States)

Gabay, Yasmin; Benayahu, Yehuda; Fine, Maoz

2013-03-01

Increasing anthropogenic pCO2 alters seawater chemistry, with potentially severe consequences for coral reef growth and health. Octocorals are the second most important faunistic component in many reefs, often occupying 50% or more of the available substrate. Three species of octocorals from two families were studied in Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba), comprising the zooxanthellate Ovabunda macrospiculata and Heteroxenia fuscescens (family Xeniidae), and Sarcophyton sp. (family Alcyoniidae). They were maintained under normal (8.2) and reduced (7.6 and 7.3) pH conditions for up to 5 months. Their biolological features, including protein concentration, polyp weight, density of zooxanthellae, and their chlorophyll concentration per cell, as well as polyp pulsation rate, were examined under conditions more acidic than normal, in order to test the hypothesis that rising pCO2 would affect octocorals. The results indicate no statistically significant difference between the octocorals exposed to reduced pH values compared to the control. It is therefore suggested that the octocorals' tissue may act as a protective barrier against adverse pH conditions, thus maintaining them unharmed at high levels of pCO2.

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machguth, H; Rastner, P; Bolch, T; Mölg, N; Sørensen, L Sandberg; Aðalgeirsdottir, G; Van Angelen, J H; Van den Broeke, M R; Fettweis, X

2013-01-01

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km 2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover. (letter)

Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Wikman-Svahn, P.

2013-12-01

scientific uncertainty, it will in most cases not be very useful for society. Instead, it is argued that scientific assessments that are used to inform societal decision-making should try to anticipate applications and aim to construct statements that characterize knowledge and uncertainty in a way that are more useful for those anticipated applications, even if this means that the value-free ideal cannot be upheld. This means that scientific assessments should ideally be intertwined with societal applications, and that co-produced knowledge engaging both scientists and end-users are likely to provide better and more useful assessments. The argument is illustrated using real examples from scientific assessments of future sea level rise, with special emphasis on the approaches used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fourth assessment report from 2007, and the fifth assessment report due in September 2013. Finally, it is argued that recent developments in "bottom-up" and "robust" decision-making frameworks provide a way forward to remove many of the pitfalls and problems of communicating uncertainties in policy-relevant scientific assessments.

CO2 emissions: a peak level in 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-01-01

After a reduction of CO 2 emissions in 2009 due to the financial crisis, these emissions have again reached a peak in 2010: 30.6 Gt, it means an increase by 5% compared to the previous peak. According to IEA (International Energy Agency): 44% of the emissions come from coal, 36% from oil and 20% from natural gas, and OECD countries are responsible of 40% of the CO 2 global emissions but only of 25% of their increase since 2009. For China and India the emissions of CO 2 have increased sharply due to their strong economic growth. (A.C.)

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

Science.gov (United States)

Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

2017-10-19

Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

Host Plant Physiology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Shift across a Glacial through Future [CO2] Gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Becklin, Katie M; Mullinix, George W R; Ward, Joy K

2016-10-01

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) may modulate the functioning of mycorrhizal associations by altering the relative degree of nutrient and carbohydrate limitations in plants. To test this, we grew Taraxacum ceratophorum and Taraxacum officinale (native and exotic dandelions) with and without mycorrhizal fungi across a broad [CO 2 ] gradient (180-1,000 µL L -1 ). Differential plant growth rates and vegetative plasticity were hypothesized to drive species-specific responses to [CO 2 ] and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. To evaluate [CO 2 ] effects on mycorrhizal functioning, we calculated response ratios based on the relative biomass of mycorrhizal (M Bio ) and nonmycorrhizal (NM Bio ) plants (R Bio = [M Bio - NM Bio ]/NM Bio ). We then assessed linkages between R Bio and host physiology, fungal growth, and biomass allocation using structural equation modeling. For T. officinale, R Bio increased with rising [CO 2 ], shifting from negative to positive values at 700 µL L -1 [CO 2 ] and mycorrhizal effects on photosynthesis and leaf growth rates drove shifts in R Bio in this species. For T. ceratophorum, R Bio increased from 180 to 390 µL L -1 and further increases in [CO 2 ] caused R Bio to shift from positive to negative values. [CO 2 ] and fungal effects on plant growth and carbon sink strength were correlated with shifts in R Bio in this species. Overall, we show that rising [CO 2 ] significantly altered the functioning of mycorrhizal associations. These symbioses became more beneficial with rising [CO 2 ], but nonlinear effects may limit plant responses to mycorrhizal fungi under future [CO 2 ]. The magnitude and mechanisms driving mycorrhizal-CO 2 responses reflected species-specific differences in growth rate and vegetative plasticity, indicating that these traits may provide a framework for predicting mycorrhizal responses to global change. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Song

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

Physiological advantages of dwarfing in surviving extinctions in high-CO2 oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Garilli, Vittorio; Rodolfo-Metalpa, Riccardo; Scuderi, Danilo; Brusca, Lorenzo; Parrinello, Daniela; Rastrick, Samuel P. S.; Foggo, Andy; Twitchett, Richard J.; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Milazzo, Marco

2015-07-01

Excessive CO2 in the present-day ocean-atmosphere system is causing ocean acidification, and is likely to cause a severe biodiversity decline in the future, mirroring effects in many past mass extinctions. Fossil records demonstrate that organisms surviving such events were often smaller than those before, a phenomenon called the Lilliput effect. Here, we show that two gastropod species adapted to acidified seawater at shallow-water CO2 seeps were smaller than those found in normal pH conditions and had higher mass-specific energy consumption but significantly lower whole-animal metabolic energy demand. These physiological changes allowed the animals to maintain calcification and to partially repair shell dissolution. These observations of the long-term chronic effects of increased CO2 levels forewarn of changes we can expect in marine ecosystems as CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked, and support the hypothesis that ocean acidification contributed to past extinction events. The ability to adapt through dwarfing can confer physiological advantages as the rate of CO2 emissions continues to increase.

Response of marine viral populations to a nutrient induced phytoplankton bloom at different pCO2 levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.-A. Sandaa

2008-04-01

Full Text Available During the PeECE III mesocosm experiment in 2005 we investigated how the virioplankton community responded to increased levels of nutrients (N and P and CO2. We applied a combination of flow cytometry, Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis and degenerate PCR primers to categorize and quantify individual viral populations, and to investigate their temporal dynamics. Species specific and degenerate primers enabled us to identify two specific large dsDNA viruses, EhV and CeV, infecting the haptophytes Emiliania huxleyi and Crysochromulina ericina, respectively. Some of the viral populations detected and enumerated by flow cytometry did not respond to altered CO2-levels, but the abundance of EhV and an unidentified dsDNA virus decreased with increasing CO2 levels. Our results thus indicate that CO2 conditions, or the related change in pH, may affect the marine pelagic food web at the viral level. Our results also demonstrate that in order to unravel ecological problems as how CO2 and nutrient levels affect the relationship between marine algal viruses and their hosts, we need to continue the effort to develop molecular markers used to identify both hosts and viruses.

Growth and control of invasive weeds under elevated CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been increasing since the onset of the industrial revolution. Regardless of the debate on the effects of this rise on climate, most plants exhibit a positive growth response to elevated CO2 due to increased photosynthesis, resource use efficiency, and/or alloca...

Can sea level rise cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes?

Science.gov (United States)

Urlaub, Morelia

2014-05-01

Submarine landslides are one of the volumetrically most important sediment transport processes at continental margins. Moreover, these landslides are a major geohazard as they can cause damaging tsunamis and destroy seabed infrastructure. Due to their inaccessibility our understanding of what causes these landslides is limited and based on hypotheses that are difficult to test. Some of the largest submarine landslides, such as the Storegga Slide off Norway, occurred during times of eustatic sea level rise. It has been suggested that this global sea level rise was implicated in triggering of the landslides by causing an increase in excess pore pressure in the subseafloor. However, in a homogeneous slope a change in the thickness of the overlying water mass is not expected to affect its stability, as only the hydrostatic pressure component will change, whereas pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic will remain unaltered. Whether sufficiently rapid sea level rise, aided by rather impermeable sediment and complex layering, could cause excess pore pressures that may destabilise a continental slope is more difficult to answer and has not yet been tested. I use Finite Element Modelling to explore and quantify the direct effect of changes in the thickness of the overlying water mass on the stability of a generic sediment column with different stratigraphic conditions and hydro-mechanical properties. The results show that the direct effect of sea level rise on continental slope stability is minimal. Nevertheless, sea level rise may foster other processes, such as lithospheric stress changes resulting in increased seismicity, that could potentially cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes.

Study of CO2 bubble dynamics in seawater from QICS field Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B.; Dewar, M.; Sellami, N.; Stahl, H.; Blackford, J.

2013-12-01

One of the concerns of employing CCS at engineering scale is the risk of leakage of storage CO2 on the environment and especially on the marine life. QICS, a scientific research project was launched with an aim to study the effects of a potential leak from a CCS system on the UK marine environment [1]. The project involves the injection of CO2 from a shore-based lab into shallow marine sediments. One of the main objectives of the project is to generate experimental data to be compared with the developed physical models. The results of the models are vital for the biogeochemical and ecological models in order to predict the impact of a CO2 leak in a variety of situations. For the evaluation of the fate of the CO2 bubbles into the surrounding seawater, the physical model requires two key parameters to be used as input which are: (i) a correlation of the drag coefficient as function of the CO2 bubble Reynolds number and (ii) the CO2 bubble size distribution. By precisely measuring the CO2 bubble size and rising speed, these two parameters can be established. For this purpose, the dynamical characteristics of the rising CO2 bubbles in Scottish seawater were investigated experimentally within the QICS project. Observations of the CO2 bubbles plume rising freely in the in seawater column were captured by video survey using a ruler positioned at the leakage pockmark as dimension reference. This observation made it possible, for the first time, to discuss the dynamics of the CO2 bubbles released in seawater. [1] QICS, QICS: Quantifying and Monitoring Potential Ecosystem Impacts of Geological Carbon Storage. (Accessed 15.07.13), http://www.bgs.ac.uk/qics/home.html

Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hansen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Expansive areas of low elevation in many densely populated coastal areas are at elevated risk of storm surges and flooding due to torrential precipitation, as a result of sea level rise. These phenomena could have catastrophic impacts on coastal communities and result in the destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of economic activities and salt water contamination of the water supply. The objective of the study presented in this paper was to identify various impacts of sea level rise on civil infrastructures in coastal areas and examine the adaptation measures suggested in the existing literature. To this end, a systemic review of the existing literature was conducted in order to identify a repository of studies addressing sea level rise impacts and adaptation measures in the context of infrastructure systems. The study focused on three infrastructure sectors: water and wastewater, energy, and road transportation. The collected information was then analyzed in order to identify different categories of sea level rise impacts and corresponding adaptation measures. The findings of the study are threefold: (1 the major categories of sea level rise impacts on different infrastructure systems; (2 measures for protection, accommodation, and retreat in response to sea level rise impacts; and (3 challenges related to implementing adaptation measures.

Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989-2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rick, U K; Boykoff, M T; Pielke, R A Jr

2011-01-01

In the mass media, sea level rise is commonly associated with the impacts of climate change due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. As this issue garners ongoing international policy attention, segments of the scientific community have expressed unease about how this has been covered by mass media. Therefore, this study examines how sea level rise projections-in IPCC Assessment Reports and a sample of the scientific literature-have been represented in seven prominent United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) newspapers over the past two decades. The research found that-with few exceptions-journalists have accurately portrayed scientific research on sea level rise projections to 2100. Moreover, while coverage has predictably increased in the past 20 years, journalists have paid particular attention to the issue in years when an IPCC report is released or when major international negotiations take place, rather than when direct research is completed and specific projections are published. We reason that the combination of these factors has contributed to a perceived problem in the sea level rise reporting by the scientific community, although systematic empirical research shows none. In this contemporary high-stakes, high-profile and highly politicized arena of climate science and policy interactions, such results mark a particular bright spot in media representations of climate change. These findings can also contribute to more measured considerations of climate impacts and policy action at a critical juncture of international negotiations and everyday decision-making associated with the causes and consequences of climate change.

Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

The effects of CO2 and nutrient fertilisation on the growth and temperature response of the mangrove Avicennia germinans.

Science.gov (United States)

Reef, Ruth; Slot, Martijn; Motro, Uzi; Motro, Michal; Motro, Yoav; Adame, Maria F; Garcia, Milton; Aranda, Jorge; Lovelock, Catherine E; Winter, Klaus

2016-08-01

In order to understand plant responses to both the widespread phenomenon of increased nutrient inputs to coastal zones and the concurrent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, CO2-nutrient interactions need to be considered. In addition to its potential stimulating effect on photosynthesis and growth, elevated CO2 affects the temperature response of photosynthesis. The scarcity of experiments testing how elevated CO2 affects the temperature response of tropical trees hinders our ability to model future primary productivity. In a glasshouse study, we examined the effects of elevated CO2 (800 ppm) and nutrient availability on seedlings of the widespread mangrove Avicennia germinans. We assessed photosynthetic performance, the temperature response of photosynthesis, seedling growth and biomass allocation. We found large synergistic gains in both growth (42 %) and photosynthesis (115 %) when seedlings grown under elevated CO2 were supplied with elevated nutrient concentrations relative to their ambient growing conditions. Growth was significantly enhanced under elevated CO2 only under high-nutrient conditions, mainly in above-ground tissues. Under low-nutrient conditions and elevated CO2, root volume was more than double that of seedlings grown under ambient CO2 levels. Elevated CO2 significantly increased the temperature optimum for photosynthesis by ca. 4 °C. Rising CO2 concentrations are likely to have a significant positive effect on the growth rate of A. germinans over the next century, especially in areas where nutrient availability is high.

Effect of venous (gut) CO2 loading on intrapulmonary gas fractions and ventilation in the tegu lizard.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballam, G O; Donaldson, L A

1988-01-01

Studies were conducted to determine regional pulmonary gas concentrations in the tegu lizard lung. Additionally, changes in pulmonary gas concentrations and ventilatory patterns caused by elevating venous levels of CO2 by gut infusion were measured. It was found that significant stratification of lung gases was present in the tegu and that dynamic fluctuations of CO2 concentration varied throughout the length of the lung. Mean FCO2 was greater and FO2 less in the posterior regions of the lung. In the posterior regions gas concentrations remained nearly constant, whereas in the anterior regions large swings were observed with each breath. In the most anterior sections of the lung near the bronchi, CO2 and O2 concentrations approached atmospheric levels during inspiration and posterior lung levels during expiration. During gut loading of CO2, the rate of rise of CO2 during the breathing pause increased. The mean level of CO2 also increased. Breathing rate and tidal volume increased to produce a doubling of VE. These results indicate that the method of introduction of CO2 into the tegu respiratory system determines the ventilatory response. If the CO2 is introduced into the venous blood a dramatic increase in ventilation is observed. If the CO2 is introduced into the inspired air a significant decrease in ventilation is produced. The changes in pulmonary CO2 environment caused by inspiratory CO2 loading are different from those caused by venous CO2 loading. We hypothesize that the differences in pulmonary CO2 environment caused by either inspiratory CO2 loading or fluctuations in venous CO2 concentration act differently on the IPC. The differing response of the IPC to the two methods of CO2 loading is the cause of the opposite ventilatory response seen during either venous or inspiratory loading.

Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mustapa, Siti Indati; Bekhet, Hussain Ali

2016-01-01

The demand for transport services is expected to rise, causing the CO 2 emissions level to increase as well. In Malaysia, the transportation sector accounts for 28% of total CO 2 emissions, of which 85% comes from road transport. By 2020, Malaysia is targeting a reduction in CO 2 emissions intensity by up to 40% and in this effort the role of road transport is paramount. This paper attempts to investigate effective policy options that can assist Malaysia in reducing the CO 2 emissions level. An Optimisation model is developed to estimate the potential CO 2 emissions mitigation strategies for road transport by minimising the CO 2 emissions under the constraint of fuel cost and demand travel. Several mitigation strategies have been applied to analyse the effect of CO 2 emissions reduction potential. The results demonstrate that removal of fuel price subsidies can result in reductions of up to 652 ktonnes of fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions can be decreased by 6.55%, which would enable Malaysia to hit its target by 2020. CO 2 emissions can be reduced significantly, up to 20%, by employing a combination of mitigation policies in Malaysia. This suggests that appropriate mitigation policies can assist the country in its quest to achieve the CO 2 emissions reduction target. - Highlights: • An optimisation model for CO 2 emissions reduction in Malaysia's road transport is formulated. • Sensible policy options to achieve the CO 2 emissions reduction target are provided. • Increase in fuel price has induced shift towards fuel efficient vehicles. • The CO 2 emissions can be reduced up to 5.7 MtCO 2 with combination of mitigation policies.

Sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean

OpenAIRE

Proshutinsky, Andrey; Pavlov, Vladimir; Bourke, Robert H.

2001-01-01

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012760 About 60 tide-gauge stations in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas have recorded the sea level change from the 1950s through 1990s. Over this 40-year period, most of these stations show a significant sea level rise (SLR). In light of global change, this SLR could be a manifestation of warming in the Artic coupled with a decrease of sea ice extent, warming of Atlantic waters, changes in...

Assessment of CO 2 emission level in urban transport of Mekelle ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Transport plays a crucial role in accelerating development and improving quality of life by allowing ease transfer of people, goods and services. It is also one of the important preconditions for achieving developmental goals. This study therefore intends to assess the level of CO2 emissions in urban transport of Mekelle city.

Plant ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2: applying a "two-timing" approach to assess alternative hypotheses for mechanisms of nutrient limitation

Science.gov (United States)

Medlyn, B.; Jiang, M.; Zaehle, S.

2017-12-01

There is now ample experimental evidence that the response of terrestrial vegetation to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is modified by soil nutrient availability. How to represent nutrient cycling processes is thus a key consideration for vegetation models. We have previously used model intercomparison to demonstrate that models incorporating different assumptions predict very different responses at Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments. Careful examination of model outputs has provided some insight into the reasons for the different model outcomes, but it is difficult to attribute outcomes to specific assumptions. Here we investigate the impact of individual assumptions in a generic plant carbon-nutrient cycling model. The G'DAY (Generic Decomposition And Yield) model is modified to incorporate alternative hypotheses for nutrient cycling. We analyse the impact of these assumptions in the model using a simple analytical approach known as "two-timing". This analysis identifies the quasi-equilibrium behaviour of the model at the time scales of the component pools. The analysis provides a useful mathematical framework for probing model behaviour and identifying the most critical assumptions for experimental study.

CO2 Fixation by Membrane Separated NaCl Electrolysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Park, Hyun Sic; Lee, Ju Sung; Han, Junyoung

2015-01-01

for converting CO2 into CaCO3 requires high temperature and high pressure as reaction conditions. This study proposes a method to fixate CaCO3 stably by using relatively less energy than existing methods. After forming NaOH absorbent solution through electrolysis of NaCl in seawater, CaCO3 was precipitated...... crystal product was high-purity calcite. The study shows a successful method for fixating CO2 by reducing carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere while forming high-purity CaCO3.......Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), a major cause of global warming, have been rising due to industrial development. Carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is regarded as the most effective way to reduce such atmospheric CO2 concentrations, has several environmental and technical...

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

2017-01-01

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

2017-04-21

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

A Low-Cost Fluorescent Sensor for pCO2 Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xudong Ge

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Global warming is believed to be caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (mostly CO2 discharged into the environment by human activity. In addition to an increase in environmental temperature, an increased CO2 level has also led to ocean acidification. Ocean acidification and rising temperatures have disrupted the water’s ecological balance, killing off some plant and animal species, while encouraging the overgrowth of others. To minimize the effect of global warming on local ecosystem, there is a strong need to implement ocean observing systems to monitor the effects of anthropogenic CO2 and the impacts thereof on ocean biological productivity. Here, we describe the development of a low-cost fluorescent sensor for pCO2 measurements. The detector was exclusively assembled with low-cost optics and electronics, so that it would be affordable enough to be deployed in great numbers. The system has several novel features, such as an ideal 90° separation between excitation and emission, a beam combiner, a reference photodetector, etc. Initial tests showed that the system was stable and could achieve a high resolution despite the low cost.

Crop responses to CO2 enrichment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, H.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

1993-01-01

Carbon dioxide is rising in the global atmosphere, and this increase can be expected to continue into the foreseeable future. This compound is an essential input to plant life. Crop function is affected across all scales from biochemical to agroecosystem. An array of methods (leaf cuvettes, field chambers, free-air release systems) are available for experimental studies of CO 2 effects. Carbon dioxide enrichment of the air in which crops grow usually stimulates their growth and yield. Plant structure and physiology are markedly altered. Interactions between CO 2 and environmental factors that influence plants are known to occur. Implications for crop growth and yield are enormous. Strategies designed to assure future global food security must include a consideration of crop responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 . 137 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

An experimental study on the temperature dependence of CO2 explosive evaporation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voort, M.M. van der; Wees, R.M.M. van; Ham, J.M.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Berg, A.C. van den; Bruijn, P.C.J. de; Ierschot, P.G.A. van

2013-01-01

The need for transportation and storage of CO2 in bulk quantities is likely to increase in the near future. The handling of CO2 on such scale gives rise to a number of technological challenges and safety aspects. The accidental rupture of a vessel containing liquefied CO2 may lead to a Boiling

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckett, Leah H; Baldwin, Andrew H; Kearney, Michael S

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9-15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.

The development of the tertiary sector in the economy and the reduction in CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morvan, R.; Hubert, M.; Gregoire, P.; Lowezanin, Ch.

2004-09-01

The development of the tertiary sector appears to support sustainable development since it now accounts for almost two thirds of the national economy and is responsible for low CO 2 emission levels. Between 1980 and 1997, CO 2 emissions from the tertiary sector increased by 20 % compared with a 48 % rise in the sector value added. In terms of production, CO 2 levels in the tertiary sector are low, compared with 55 % for the secondary sector (industry). However, when trade between economic activities is taken into account, there is cause to qualify the assessment. This makes it possible to ascertain emissions from the point of view of satisfying final demand for products, and to identify direct and indirect emissions in each branch of activity. Thus, when emissions from certain industrial and agricultural activities are redistributed specifically to branches of activity in the tertiary sector, CO 2 emissions in this sector account for almost one-third of total emissions. (A.L.B.)

Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-01-01

Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhan, Q; Fan, X; Du, X; Zhu, J

2014-01-01

In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise

Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

area of rising sea levels in the North Atlantic where sea levels are usually low. This large pool of rapidly rising warm water is evidence of a major change in ocean circulation. It signals a slow down in the sub-polar gyre, a counter-clockwise system of currents that loop between Ireland, Greenland and Newfoundland. Such a change could have an impact on climate since the sub-polar gyre may be connected in some way to the nearby global thermohaline circulation, commonly known as the global conveyor belt. This is the slow-moving circulation in which water sinks in the North Atlantic at different locations around the sub-polar gyre, spreads south, travels around the globe, and slowly up-wells to the surface before returning around the southern tip of Africa. Then it winds its way through the surface currents in the Atlantic and eventually comes back to the North Atlantic. It is unclear if the weakening of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre is part of a natural cycle or related to global warming. This image was made possible by the detailed record of sea surface height measurements begun by Topex/Poseidon and continued by Jason-1. The recently launched Ocean Surface Topography Mission on the Jason-2 satellite (OSTM/Jason-2) will soon take over this responsibility from Jason-1. The older satellite will move alongside OSTM/Jason-2 and continue to measure sea surface height on an adjacent ground track for as long as it is in good health. Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 are joint missions of NASA and the French space agency, CNES. OSTM/Jason-2 is collaboration between NASA; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; CNES; and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. JPL manages the U.S. portion of the missions for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

Tree and forest water use under elevated CO2 and temperature in Scandinavian boreal forest

Science.gov (United States)

Berg Hasper, Thomas; Wallin, Göran; Lamba, Shubhangi; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Medhurst, Jane L.; Räntfors, Mats; Linder, Sune; Uddling, Johan

2014-05-01

According to experimental studies and models, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and temperature have the potential to affect stomatal conductance and, consequently, tree and forest transpiration. This effect has in turn the capacity to influence the terrestrial energy and water balance, including affecting of the magnitude of river runoff. Furthermore, forest productivity is currently water-limited in southern Scandinavia and in a near future, under the projected climatic change, this limitation may become a reality in the central and northern parts of Scandinavia. In this study we examine the water-use responses in 12 40-year old native boreal Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees exposed to a factorial combination of two levels of [CO2] (ambient and doubled) and temperature (ambient and +2.8 °C in summer / +5.6 °C in winter), as well as of entire boreal forests to temporal variation in [CO2], temperature and precipitation over the past 50 years in central and northern Sweden. The controlled factorial CO2 and temperature whole-tree chamber experiment at Flakaliden study site demonstrated that Norway spruce trees lacked elevated [CO2]-induced water savings at guard cell, shoot, and tree levels in the years of measurements. Experimentally, elevated temperature did not result in increased shoot or tree water use as stomatal closure fully cancelled the effect of higher vapour pressure deficit in warmed air environment. Consistent with these results, large scale river runoff data and evapotranspiration estimates from large forested watersheds in central Sweden supported lack of elevated CO2-mediated water savings, and rather suggested that the increasing evapotranspiration trend found in this study was primarily linked to increasing precipitation, rising temperature and more efficient forest management. The results from the whole-tree chamber experiment and boreal forested watersheds have important implications for more accurate

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO(2): Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO(2) levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO(2) for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO(2) and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO(2) levels in most crop plants, particularly C(3) plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO(2). The yield potential of C(3) crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The "C fertilization" through elevated CO(2) levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO(2) and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO(2), raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO(2) levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO(2) levels.

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO2: Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies

Science.gov (United States)

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J.; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO2 for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO2 and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO2 levels in most crop plants, particularly C3 plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO2. The yield potential of C3 crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The “C fertilization” through elevated CO2 levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO2, raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO2 levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO2 levels. PMID:22833749

Cerebrovascular CO2 reactivity in normotensive and hypertensive man

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tominaga, S; Strandgaard, S; Uemura, K

1976-01-01

Cerebrovascular reactivity to CO2 inhalation and voluntary hyperventilation was studied in seven normotensive subjects and nine hypertensive patients without clinical or angiographical signs of arteriosclerosis. Cerebral blood flow (CBF) was measured by the intracarotid 133Xe clearance method...... and calculated as the initial slope index. Three to five CBF measurements were made in each patient in the PaCO2 range of 20 to 55 mm Hg. No difference was observed in reactivity between hypertensive and normotensive patients, either during CO2 inhalation or during hyperventilation. The shape of the CBF:PaCO2...... curve suggested a decrease in reactivity below a PaCO2 of 30 to 35 mm Hg in both groups. Above a PaCO2 of 35 mm Hg, exponential regression analysis yielded a mean reactivity of 6 +/- 2%, whereas below a PaCO2 of 30 mm Hg it was about 2%. The rise in CBF during CO2 inhalation was not influenced...

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

Science.gov (United States)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

2016-12-01

Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane

Morphological changes within Florida Bay as a result of sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, C. W.

2011-12-01

Data from Florida Bay indicates that from 10,000 year BP to 6000 BP, the rate of sea level rise averaged about 10 mm/yr. The rate slowed at the end of this period flooding the shallow shelves surrounding the reef platforms of the western Atlantic. The relative flat South Florida shelf, because of its slight tilt to the southwest is an ideal local to assess the effects of this flooding. From 6000 BP to the present, numerous banks were formed within Florida Bay. A morphological model of bank formation based on the sea level oscillations was constructed from analysis of over 120 cores. These cores record sedimentological changes which are correlated to climatic events. In the central bay, the sediment accumulation was controlled by variations in rate of progressive sea-level rise. The Key West sea-level record shows that sea level has been rising incrementally over the last century. Between 1931 and 1950, sea level rose at a rate of 5 mm/yr. After 1950, it remained stable until 1971, when it again began to rise, but at a rate of 3 mm/yr. On the leeward side of mud banks, these variations resulted in shifts in sediment- accumulation rates, with accretion increasing during rising sea level and decreasing during stable periods. Between late 1970 and early 1972, a sharp jump in sea-level rise occurred that was approximately 10 cm higher than the preceding period. This jump coincided with a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a la Niña (negative ENSO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water driven northward into Florida Bay eroded banks along the northern coastline, increased sediment accumulation in the northern lakes, and increased accretion rates on the banks. In addition to the sedimentological variations in the central portion of the bay, there was significant changes along the northern fringe. Around 1950, the northern fringe of the bay morphed from a fresh water environment to a marine environment. As a result, carbonate production

Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Verena Schoepf

Full Text Available Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm, and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0 °C within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53% in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-15

The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...

Increasing Resilience Through Engagement In Sea Level Rise Community Science Initiatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Chilton, L. A.; Rindge, H.

2017-12-01

Science literate and engaged members of the public, including students, are critical to building climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant facilitates programs that work to build and strengthen these connections. The Urban Tides Community Science Initiative (Urban Tides) and the Youth Exploring Sea Level Rise Science Program (YESS) engage communities across the boundaries of public engagement, K-12 education, and informal education. YESS is an experiential sea level rise education program that combines classroom learning, field investigations and public presentations. Students explore sea level rise using a new curricula, collect their own data on sea level rise, develop communication products, and present their findings to city governments, researchers, and others. Urban Tides engages community members, informal education centers, K-12 students, and local government leaders in a citizen science program photo- documenting extreme high tides, erosion and coastal flooding in Southern California. Images provide critical information to help calibrate scientific models used to identify locations vulnerable to damage from future sea level rise. These tools and information enable community leaders and local governments to set priorities, guidelines, and update policies as they plan strategies that will help the region adapt. The program includes a mobile app for data collection, an open database to view photos, a lesson plan, and community beach walks. Urban Tides has led to an increase in data and data-gathering capacity for regional scientists, an increase in public participation in science, and an increase in ocean and climate literacy among initiative participants. Both of these programs bring informed and diverse voices into the discussion of how to adapt and build climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant will share impacts and lessons learned from these two unique programs.

System-level modeling for geological storage of CO2

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

2006-01-01

One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine formations or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research has and is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO2 storage, such as performance, capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues, as well as to lower the cost of CO2 capture and related p...

CO 2 breakthrough—Caprock sealing efficiency and integrity for carbon geological storage

KAUST Repository

Espinoza, D. Nicolas; Santamarina, Carlos

2017-01-01

Small pores in high specific surface clay-rich caprocks give rise to high capillary entry pressures and high viscous drag that hinder the migration of buoyant carbon dioxide CO2. We measured the breakthrough pressure and ensuing CO2 permeability

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

2004-11-01

In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much

CO2 and the hydrologic cycle: Simulation of two Texas river basins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, K.W.; Srinivasan, R.; Arnold, J.G.; Williams, J.R.

1994-01-01

Increasing concentrations of CO 2 , in the atmosphere have been speculated to have a major effect on water supplies as well as other ecological characteristics. SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is a river basin scale hydrologic model that was modified to simulate the impact of CO 2 concentration on ET and biomass production. The model was utilized to analyze the impact of global climate change on two contrasting Texas basins. Climatic changes included doubling of CO 2 concentration from 330 ppm to 660 ppm and varying temperatures 0, ±2, and ±4 C from present values. Potential impacts of six hydrologic parameters including ET, potential ET, water yield, water stress, soil water, and biomass were simulated. CO 2 doubling had a more pronounced effect than did temperature variances. When temperature alone was varied, water yield at the outlet of the basins ranged from -4.4% to 6.5% for basin 1202 and from 2.9% to 26.7% for basin 1208. But, when coupled with an elevated CO 2 concentration, water yields increased in the range of 13.1% to 24.5% for basin 1202 and 5.6% to 33.7% for basin 1208. Rising CO 2 levels reduced ET for both basins, representing an enhanced water use efficiency. Seasonal fluctuations of soil water were a result of different growing periods and are evident from water stress encountered by the plant. With enriched CO 2 levels, increases in biomass production ranged from 6.9% to 47.4% and from 14.5 % to 31.4% for basins 1202 and 1208, respectively. 42 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

2016-01-01

Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodroffe, C D; Rogers, K; McKee, K L; Lovelock, C E; Mendelssohn, I A; Saintilan, N

2016-01-01

Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

Acclimation to high CO2 in maize is related to water status and dependent on leaf rank.

Science.gov (United States)

Prins, Anneke; Mukubi, Josephine Muchwesi; Pellny, Till K; Verrier, Paul J; Beyene, Getu; Lopes, Marta Silva; Emami, Kaveh; Treumann, Achim; Lelarge-Trouverie, Caroline; Noctor, Graham; Kunert, Karl J; Kerchev, Pavel; Foyer, Christine H

2011-02-01

The responses of C(3) plants to rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are considered to be largely dependent on effects exerted through altered photosynthesis. In contrast, the nature of the responses of C(4) plants to high CO(2) remains controversial because of the absence of CO(2) -dependent effects on photosynthesis. In this study, the effects of atmospheric CO(2) availability on the transcriptome, proteome and metabolome profiles of two ranks of source leaves in maize (Zea mays L.) were studied in plants grown under ambient CO(2) conditions (350 +/- 20 µL L(-1) CO(2) ) or with CO(2) enrichment (700 +/- 20 µL L(-1) CO(2) ). Growth at high CO(2) had no effect on photosynthesis, photorespiration, leaf C/N ratios or anthocyanin contents. However, leaf transpiration rates, carbohydrate metabolism and protein carbonyl accumulation were altered at high CO(2) in a leaf-rank specific manner. Although no significant CO(2) -dependent changes in the leaf transcriptome were observed, qPCR analysis revealed that the abundance of transcripts encoding a Bowman-Birk protease inhibitor and a serpin were changed by the growth CO(2) level in a leaf rank specific manner. Moreover, CO(2) -dependent changes in the leaf proteome were most evident in the oldest source leaves. Small changes in water status may be responsible for the observed responses to high CO(2,) particularly in the older leaf ranks. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Future rise of the sea level: consequences and strategies on the shoreline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teisson, C.

1991-11-01

The Mean Sea Level may rise in a near future due to the warming of the atmosphere associated with the 'greenhouse effect'. The alarming estimations issued in the 1980's (several meters of surelevation in the next centuries) are now lowered: the ice sheets, the melting of which could induce such a rise, do not present signs of instability. A rise from 30 to 50 cm is likely to occur in the middle of the next century; there is a probability of 25% that the rise of sea level relative to the year 1980 stands beyond 1 meter by 2100. The consequences of such a rise on the shoreline and the maritime works are reviewed, and planning strategies are discussed. This study has been performed in the framework of a convention between EDF-LNH and the Sea State Secretary (Service Technique des Ports Maritimes et Voies Navigables) 41 refs., 31 figs., 6 tabs

The influence of using LPG device on the CO2 emissions from personal passenger cars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viliam Carach

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Traffic, mostly the air and car traffic is the biggest producer of CO2 (51% at present. CO2 is one of the most important greenhouse gases with more than 50 % of emissions contributing to this major global ecological problem. A rising concetration of CO2 in the atmosphere leads to higher global temperatures. The main problem is the rise of CO2 emissions in most developed countries despite international undertakings accepted in 80´s. This is the main reason for finding solutions to reduce the amount of CO2 emissions in the traffic. One of many solutions is the use of LPG fuel. The purpose of this article is to quantify the efficiency of using LPG in personal passenger cars.

Reducing of CO2 emissions and its depositing into underground

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslava Koudelková

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Increasing CO2 emissions caused especially by the combustion of fossil fuels rises a question of how this can be problem solved in the long term. There is several solutions which differ technically and financially. This paper deals with the CO2 capture from combustion processes or power plant processes, (CO2 can be captured from the flue gas, after combustion in oxygen and recirculated flue gas or from a synthesis gas before combustion. This paper presents possibilities of CO2 storagex captured in this way into underground (deep ocean, oil and gas fields, coal bed, aquifers.

Catholyte-Free Electrocatalytic CO2 Reduction to Formate.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wonhee; Kim, Young Eun; Youn, Min Hye; Jeong, Soon Kwan; Park, Ki Tae

2018-04-16

Electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into value-added chemicals is a promising strategy to reduce CO 2 emission and mitigate climate change. One of the most serious problems in electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) is the low solubility of CO 2 in an aqueous electrolyte, which significantly limits the cathodic reaction rate. This paper proposes a facile method of catholyte-free electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction to avoid the solubility limitation using commercial tin nanoparticles as a cathode catalyst. Interestingly, as the reaction temperature rises from 303 K to 363 K, the partial current density (PCD) of formate improves more than two times with 52.9 mA cm -2 , despite the decrease in CO 2 solubility. Furthermore, a significantly high formate concentration of 41.5 g L -1 is obtained as a one-path product at 343 K with high PCD (51.7 mA cm -2 ) and high Faradaic efficiency (93.3 %) via continuous operation in a full flow cell at a low cell voltage of 2.2 V. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Interactive Effects of Elevated [CO2] and Drought on the Maize Phytochemical Defense Response against Mycotoxigenic Fusarium verticillioides.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martha M Vaughan

Full Text Available Changes in climate due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2] are predicted to intensify episodes of drought, but our understanding of how these combined conditions will influence crop-pathogen interactions is limited. We recently demonstrated that elevated [CO2] alone enhances maize susceptibility to the mycotoxigenic pathogen, Fusarium verticillioides (Fv but fumonisin levels remain unaffected. In this study we show that maize simultaneously exposed to elevated [CO2] and drought are even more susceptible to Fv proliferation and also prone to higher levels of fumonisin contamination. Despite the increase in fumonisin levels, the amount of fumonisin produced in relation to pathogen biomass remained lower than corresponding plants grown at ambient [CO2]. Therefore, the increase in fumonisin contamination was likely due to even greater pathogen biomass rather than an increase in host-derived stimulants. Drought did not negate the compromising effects of elevated [CO2] on the accumulation of maize phytohormones and metabolites. However, since elevated [CO2] does not influence the drought-induced accumulation of abscisic acid (ABA or root terpenoid phytoalexins, the effects elevated [CO2] are negated belowground, but the stifled defense response aboveground may be a consequence of resource redirection to the roots.

Interactive Effects of Elevated [CO2] and Drought on the Maize Phytochemical Defense Response against Mycotoxigenic Fusarium verticillioides

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Martha M.; Huffaker, Alisa; Schmelz, Eric A.; Dafoe, Nicole J.; Christensen, Shawn A.; McAuslane, Heather J.; Alborn, Hans T.; Allen, Leon Hartwell; Teal, Peter E. A.

2016-01-01

Changes in climate due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) are predicted to intensify episodes of drought, but our understanding of how these combined conditions will influence crop-pathogen interactions is limited. We recently demonstrated that elevated [CO2] alone enhances maize susceptibility to the mycotoxigenic pathogen, Fusarium verticillioides (Fv) but fumonisin levels remain unaffected. In this study we show that maize simultaneously exposed to elevated [CO2] and drought are even more susceptible to Fv proliferation and also prone to higher levels of fumonisin contamination. Despite the increase in fumonisin levels, the amount of fumonisin produced in relation to pathogen biomass remained lower than corresponding plants grown at ambient [CO2]. Therefore, the increase in fumonisin contamination was likely due to even greater pathogen biomass rather than an increase in host-derived stimulants. Drought did not negate the compromising effects of elevated [CO2] on the accumulation of maize phytohormones and metabolites. However, since elevated [CO2] does not influence the drought-induced accumulation of abscisic acid (ABA) or root terpenoid phytoalexins, the effects elevated [CO2] are negated belowground, but the stifled defense response aboveground may be a consequence of resource redirection to the roots. PMID:27410032

US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bierkandt, R; Levermann, A; Auffhammer, M

2015-01-01

Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible. (letter)

Tree ring evidence for limited direct CO2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century

Science.gov (United States)

Gedalof, Ze'ev; Berg, Aaron A.

2010-09-01

The effect that rising atmospheric CO2 levels will have on forest productivity and water use efficiency remains uncertain, yet it has critical implications for future rates of carbon sequestration and forest distributions. Efforts to understand the effect that rising CO2 will have on forests are largely based on growth chamber studies of seedlings, and the relatively small number of FACE sites. Inferences from these studies are limited by their generally short durations, artificial growing conditions, unnatural step-increases in CO2 concentrations, and poor replication. Here we analyze the global record of annual radial tree growth, derived from the International Tree ring Data Bank (ITRDB), for evidence of increasing growth rates that cannot be explained by climatic change alone, and for evidence of decreasing sensitivity to drought. We find that approximately 20 percent of sites globally exhibit increasing trends in growth that cannot be attributed to climatic causes, nitrogen deposition, elevation, or latitude, which we attribute to a direct CO2 fertilization effect. No differences were found between species in their likelihood to exhibit growth increases attributable to CO2 fertilization, although Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), the two most commonly sampled species in the ITRDB, exhibit a CO2 fertilization signal at frequencies very near their upper and lower confidence limits respectively. Overall these results suggest that CO2 fertilization of forests will not counteract emissions or slow warming in any substantial fashion, but do suggest that future forest dynamics may differ from those seen today depending on site conditions and individual species' responses to elevated CO2.

Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise

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Kristina A. Dahl

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

Planning for Sea Level Rise: An AGU Talk in the Form of a Co-Production Experiment Exploring Recent Science

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Behar, D. H.; Kopp, R. E.; DeConto, R.; Weaver, C. P.; White, K. D.; May, K.; Bindschadler, R.

2017-12-01

Global sea level rise (SLR) may present the most urgent climate change adaptation challenge facing coastal communities today. The direction is clear, impacts are manifesting now, and the pace of rise is likely to accelerate. As a result, many coastal communities have begun planning their adaptation response and some are quite far along in the process. At the same time, evolving science provides new observations, models, and understanding of land-ocean dynamics that can increase clarity while also in many ways increase uncertainty about the scope, timing, and regional nature of SLR. The planning, design, and construction of water infrastructure has a relatively long timeline (up to 30 years), and thus the evolution of scientific knowledge presents challenges for communities already planning for SLR based on previous information. When does science become actionable for decision-makers? Are there characteristics or thresholds that could cause communities decide to move from one set of scenarios to another, or change approaches altogether? This talk focuses on two important studies different in kind but dominating the conversation about SLR adaptation planning today. First, DeConto and Pollard (2016) have suggested significantly higher upper end projections for Antarctic ice sheet melt, which increase both global and regional SLR above most previously assumed upper limits. Second, probabilistic projections using model output and expert elicitation as presented in Kopp et al (2014) are increasingly appearing in federal reports and planning-related documents. These two papers are pushing the boundaries of the science-to-planning interface, while the application of this work as actionable science is far from settled. This talk will present the outcome of recent conversations among our diverse author team. The authors are engaged in SLR planning related contexts from many angles and perspectives and include the aforementioned Kopp and DeConto as well as representatives of

One crop breeding cycle from starvation? How engineering crop photosynthesis for rising CO2 and temperature could be one important route to alleviation.

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Kromdijk, Johannes; Long, Stephen P

2016-03-16

Global climate change is likely to severely impact human food production. This comes at a time when predicted demand for primary foodstuffs by a growing human population and changing global diets is already outpacing a stagnating annual rate of increase in crop productivity. Additionally, the time required by crop breeding and bioengineering to release improved varieties to farmers is substantial, meaning that any crop improvements needed to mitigate food shortages in the 2040s would need to start now. In this perspective, the rationale for improvements in photosynthetic efficiency as a breeding objective for higher yields is outlined. Subsequently, using simple simulation models it is shown how predicted changes in temperature and atmospheric [CO2] affect leaf photosynthetic rates. The chloroplast accounts for the majority of leaf nitrogen in crops. Within the chloroplast about 25% of nitrogen is invested in the carboxylase, Rubisco, which catalyses the first step of CO2 assimilation. Most of the remaining nitrogen is invested in the apparatus to drive carbohydrate synthesis and regenerate ribulose-1:5-bisphosphate (RuBP), the CO2-acceptor molecule at Rubisco. At preindustrial [CO2], investment in these two aspects may have been balanced resulting in co-limitation. At today's [CO2], there appears to be over-investment in Rubisco, and despite the counter-active effects of rising temperature and [CO2], this imbalance is predicted to worsen with global climate change. By breeding or engineering restored optimality under future conditions increased productivity could be achieved in both tropical and temperate environments without additional nitrogen fertilizer. Given the magnitude of the potential shortfall, better storage conditions, improved crop management and better crop varieties will all be needed. With the short time-scale at which food demand is expected to outpace supplies, all available technologies to improve crop varieties, from classical crop breeding to

Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vestergaard, P.

2001-01-01

Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)

Carbon isotopic evidence for the associations of decreasing atmospheric CO2 level with the Frasnian-Famennian mass extinction

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Xu, Bing; Gu, Zhaoyan; Wang, Chengyuan; Hao, Qingzhen; Han, Jingtai; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Luo; Lu, Yanwu

2012-03-01

A perturbation of the global carbon cycle has often been used for interpreting the Frasnian-Famennian (F-F) mass extinction. However, the changes of atmospheric CO2 level (pCO2) during this interval are much debatable. To illustrate the carbon cycle during F-F transition, paired inorganic (δ13Ccarb) and organic (δ13Corg) carbon isotope analyses were carried out on two late Devonian carbonate sequences (Dongcun and Yangdi) from south China. The larger amplitude shift of δ13Corg compared to δ13Ccarb and its resultant Δ13C (Δ13C = δ13Ccarb - δ13Corg) decrease indicate decreased atmospheric CO2level around the F-F boundary. The onset ofpCO2 level decrease predates that of marine regressions, which coincide with the beginning of conodont extinctions, suggesting that temperature decrease induced by decreased greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2might have contributed to the F-F mass extinction.

Host Plant Physiology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Shift across a Glacial through Future [CO2] Gradient1[OPEN

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Mullinix, George W.R.; Ward, Joy K.

2016-01-01

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) may modulate the functioning of mycorrhizal associations by altering the relative degree of nutrient and carbohydrate limitations in plants. To test this, we grew Taraxacum ceratophorum and Taraxacum officinale (native and exotic dandelions) with and without mycorrhizal fungi across a broad [CO2] gradient (180–1,000 µL L−1). Differential plant growth rates and vegetative plasticity were hypothesized to drive species-specific responses to [CO2] and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. To evaluate [CO2] effects on mycorrhizal functioning, we calculated response ratios based on the relative biomass of mycorrhizal (MBio) and nonmycorrhizal (NMBio) plants (RBio = [MBio − NMBio]/NMBio). We then assessed linkages between RBio and host physiology, fungal growth, and biomass allocation using structural equation modeling. For T. officinale, RBio increased with rising [CO2], shifting from negative to positive values at 700 µL L−1. [CO2] and mycorrhizal effects on photosynthesis and leaf growth rates drove shifts in RBio in this species. For T. ceratophorum, RBio increased from 180 to 390 µL L−1 and further increases in [CO2] caused RBio to shift from positive to negative values. [CO2] and fungal effects on plant growth and carbon sink strength were correlated with shifts in RBio in this species. Overall, we show that rising [CO2] significantly altered the functioning of mycorrhizal associations. These symbioses became more beneficial with rising [CO2], but nonlinear effects may limit plant responses to mycorrhizal fungi under future [CO2]. The magnitude and mechanisms driving mycorrhizal-CO2 responses reflected species-specific differences in growth rate and vegetative plasticity, indicating that these traits may provide a framework for predicting mycorrhizal responses to global change. PMID:27573369