Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update
Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.
2015-01-01
Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU
The Potosi Reservoir Model 2013c, Property Modeling Update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Adushita, Yasmin; Smith, Valerie; Leetaru, Hannes
2014-09-30
property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case. In the preceding Task [1], the Potosi reservoir model was updated to take into account the new data from the Verification Well #2 (VW2) which was drilled in 2012. The porosity and permeability modeling was revised to take into account the log data from the new well. Revisions of the 2010 modeling assumptions were also done on relative permeability, capillary pressures, formation water salinity, and the maximum allowable well bottomhole pressure. Dynamic simulations were run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b. In this Task, a new property modeling workflow was applied, where seismic inversion data guided the porosity mapping and geobody extraction. The static reservoir model was fully guided by PorosityCube interpretations and derivations coupled with petrophysical logs from three wells. The two main assumptions are: porosity features in the PorosityCube that correlate with lost circulation zones represent vugular zones, and that these vugular zones are laterally continuous. Extrapolation was done carefully to populate the vugular facies and their corresponding properties outside the seismic footprint up to the boundary of the 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km) model. Dynamic simulations were also run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This new dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013c. Reservoir simulation with the latest model gives a cumulative injection of 43 million tons (39 MT) in 30 years with a single well, which corresponds to 40% of the injection target. The injection rate is approx. 3.2 MTPA in the first six months as the well is injecting into the surrounding vugs, and declines rapidly to 1.8 million tons per annum (1.6 MTPA) in year 3 once the surrounding vugs are full and the CO2 start to reach the matrix. After, the injection
Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.
2017-12-01
In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lira Herrera, Hector [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Mexicali, B.C., (Mexico)
2005-06-01
An updated, conceptual geologic model is presented for the geothermal reservoir in Cerro Prieto geothermal field. The tectonic extension that formed the Basin and Range Province of the Western United States and Northwestern Mexico during Upper Tertiary in the Cerro Prieto area resulted in the formation of a half graben tectonic basin between the Cerro Prieto and Imperial faults. Called the Cerro Prieto basin, it includes listric faults, predominately northwest-southwest trending, stepped generally to the northeast. The zone of cortical weakness, formed during the Tertiary, allowed an intrusion of basic rock associated with the magnetic anomaly know as Nuevo Leon. The intrusive rock has been fed by new magmatic intrusions originated by the present tectonic extension of the Gulf of California. The oldest rocks identified in the area are gneiss and biotite-schists of Permian-Jurassic age and tonalities of Jurassic-Cretaceous age in contact with Cretaceous granites, all representing the regional basement. The lithologic column in the subsurface of the Cerro Prieto basin in formed by a basement of Cretaceous granites; an argillaceous package resting on the basement composed of gray shales with interleaves of sandstone, Tertiary brown-shales and mudstone, with an average thickness of 2700 m; clastic sediments of the Quaternary age deposited mainly by the Colorado River and alluvial fans of the Cucapa Range, comprised of gravel, sands and clays with an average thickness of 2500 m, covering the shales. The fluids feeding the geothermal reservoir heat as they pass though the zone where the basic intrusive is located (the heat source) and migrate through the listric faults toward the permeable layers of sandstone located within the gray shales. [Spanish] Se presenta el modelo geologico conceptual actualizado del yacimiento geotermico de Cerro Prieto. La tectonica extensional que origino la Provincia de Cuencas y Cordilleras (Basin and Range) del oeste de Estados Unidos y
Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)
2006-11-01
The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging
RECENT ADVANCES IN NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR MODELING
ORDOÑEZ, A; PEÑUELA, G; IDROBO, E. A; MEDINA, C. E
2001-01-01
Large amounts of oil reserves are contained in naturally fractured reservoirs. Most of these hydrocarbon volumes have been left behind because of the poor knowledge and/or description methodology of those reservoirs. This lack of knowledge has lead to the nonexistence of good quantitative models for this complicated type of reservoirs. The complexity of naturally fractured reservoirs causes the need for integration of all existing information at all scales (drilling, well logging, seismic, we...
Application of Real Time Models Updating in ABO Central Field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heikal, S.; Adewale, D.; Doghmi, A.; Augustine, U.
2003-01-01
ABO central field is the first deep offshore oil production in Nigeria located in OML 125 (ex-OPL316). The field was developed in a water depth of between 500 and 800 meters. Deep-water development requires much faster data handling and model updates in order to make the best possible technical decision. This required an easy way to incorporate the latest information and dynamic update of the reservoir model enabling real time reservoir management. The paper aims at discussing the benefits of real time static and dynamic model update and illustrates with a horizontal well example how this update was beneficial prior and during the drilling operation minimizing the project CAPEX Prior to drilling, a 3D geological model was built based on seismic and offset wells' data. The geological model was updated twice, once after the pilot hole drilling and then after reaching the landing point and prior drilling the horizontal section .Forward modeling ws made was well using the along the planned trajectory. During the drilling process both geo- steering and LWD data were loaded in real time to the 3D modeling software. The data was analyzed and compared with the predicted model. The location of markers was changed as drilling progressed and the entire 3D Geological model was rapidly updated. The target zones were revaluated in the light of the new model updates. Recommendations were communicated to the field, and the well trajectory was modified to take into account the new information. The combination of speed, flexibility and update-ability of the 3D modeling software enabled continues geological model update on which the asset team based their trajectory modification decisions throughout the drilling phase. The well was geo-steered through 7 meters thickness of sand. After the drilling, the testing showed excellent results with a productivity and fluid properties data were used to update the dynamic model reviewing the well production plateau providing optimum reservoir
Modeling Reservoir-River Networks in Support of Optimizing Seasonal-Scale Reservoir Operations
Villa, D. L.; Lowry, T. S.; Bier, A.; Barco, J.; Sun, A.
2011-12-01
each timestep and minimize computational overhead. Power generation for each reservoir is estimated using a 2-dimensional regression that accounts for both the available head and turbine efficiency. The object-oriented architecture makes run configuration easy to update. The dynamic model inputs include inflow and meteorological forecasts while static inputs include bathymetry data, reservoir and power generation characteristics, and topological descriptors. Ensemble forecasts of hydrological and meteorological conditions are supplied in real-time by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and are used as a proxy for uncertainty, which is carried through the simulation and optimization process to produce output that describes the probability that different operational scenario's will be optimal. The full toolset, which includes HydroSCOPE, is currently being tested on the Feather River system in Northern California and the Upper Colorado Storage Project.
Update on Production Chemistry of the Roosevelt Hot Springs Reservoir
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Simmons, Stuart; Kirby, Stefan; Allis, Rick; Moore, Joe; Fischer, Tobias
2018-02-12
Analyses of production fluids from the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir were acquired from well sampling campaigns in 2015 and 2016. The resulting data have been recalculated to reservoir conditions by correcting for effects of steam loss, and the values are compared to legacy data from earlier reports to quantify changes with time in response to fluid production. The reservoir composition is similar to that at the start of reservoir exploitation, having near neutral pH, total dissolved solids of 7000-10,000 mg/kg, and ionic ratios of Cl/HCO3 ~50-100, Cl/SO4 ~50-100, and Na/K ~4-5. Cation, gas and silica geothermometers indicate a range of equilibration temperatures between 240 and 300 °C, but quartz-silica values are most closely consistent with measured reservoir temperatures and well enthalpies. The largest change in fluid composition is observed in well 54-3. The fluid has evolved from being fed by a single phase liquid to a twophase mixture of steam and liquid due to pressure draw down. The fluid also shows a 25% increase in reservoir chloride and a ~20° C decrement of cooling related to mixing with injected brine. The other production wells also show increase in chloride and decrease in temperature, but these changes diminish in magnitude with distance from injection well 14-2. Stable isotope compositions indicate that the reservoir water is largely meteoric in origin, having been modified by hydrothermal waterrock interaction. The water has also become progressively enriched in isotopic values in response to steam loss and mixing of injectate. N2-Ar-He and helium isotope ratios indicate a deep magmatic source region that probably supplies the heat for the hydrothermal system, consistent with recent Quaternary volcanism in the Mineral Mountains.
A Time Domain Update Method for Reservoir History Matching of Electromagnetic Data
Katterbauer, Klemens
2014-03-25
The oil & gas industry has been the backbone of the world\\'s economy in the last century and will continue to be in the decades to come. With increasing demand and conventional reservoirs depleting, new oil industry projects have become more complex and expensive, operating in areas that were previously considered impossible and uneconomical. Therefore, good reservoir management is key for the economical success of complex projects requiring the incorporation of reliable uncertainty estimates for reliable production forecasts and optimizing reservoir exploitation. Reservoir history matching has played here a key role incorporating production, seismic, electromagnetic and logging data for forecasting the development of reservoirs and its depletion. With the advances in the last decade, electromagnetic techniques, such as crosswell electromagnetic tomography, have enabled engineers to more precisely map the reservoirs and understand their evolution. Incorporating the large amount of data efficiently and reducing uncertainty in the forecasts has been one of the key challenges for reservoir management. Computing the conductivity distribution for the field for adjusting parameters in the forecasting process via solving the inverse problem has been a challenge, due to the strong ill-posedness of the inversion problem and the extensive manual calibration required, making it impossible to be included into an efficient reservoir history matching forecasting algorithm. In the presented research, we have developed a novel Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) based method for incorporating electromagnetic data directly into the reservoir simulator. Based on an extended Archie relationship, EM simulations are performed for both forecasted and Porosity-Saturation retrieved conductivity parameters being incorporated directly into an update step for the reservoir parameters. This novel direct update method has significant advantages such as that it overcomes the expensive and ill
Reservoir model for the Alameda Central waterflood
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Randall, T E
1968-01-01
The basic approach used in developing the model to characterize the Alameda Central Unit Waterflood assumes continuity of the reservoir mechanics with time. The past performance was analyzed to describe the reservoir and future performance was assumed to follow the established patterns. To develop a mathematical picture of the Alameda Central Unit reservoir, a two-dimensional single-phase steady-state model was used in conjunction with material balance calculations, real-time conversion methods and oil-water interface advance calculations. The model was developed to optimize water injection allocation, determine the configuration of the frontal advance and evaluate the success of the waterflood. The model also provides a basis for continuing review and revision of the basic concepts of reservoir operation. The results of the reservoir study have confirmed the apparent lack of permeability orientation in the pool and indicate that the waterflood is progressing better than originally anticipated.
Reservoir Models for Gas Hydrate Numerical Simulation
Boswell, R.
2016-12-01
Scientific and industrial drilling programs have now providing detailed information on gas hydrate systems that will increasingly be the subject of field experiments. The need to carefully plan these programs requires reliable prediction of reservoir response to hydrate dissociation. Currently, a major emphasis in gas hydrate modeling is the integration of thermodynamic/hydrologic phenomena with geomechanical response for both reservoir and bounding strata. However, also critical to the ultimate success of these efforts is the appropriate development of input geologic models, including several emerging issues, including (1) reservoir heterogeneity, (2) understanding of the initial petrophysical characteristics of the system (reservoirs and seals), the dynamic evolution of those characteristics during active dissociation, and the interdependency of petrophysical parameters and (3) the nature of reservoir boundaries. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous aspect of every natural reservoir, and appropriate characterization is vital. However, heterogeneity is not random. Vertical variation can be evaluated with core and well log data; however, core data often are challenged by incomplete recovery. Well logs also provide interpretation challenges, particularly where reservoirs are thinly-bedded due to limitation in vertical resolution. This imprecision will extend to any petrophysical measurements that are derived from evaluation of log data. Extrapolation of log data laterally is also complex, and should be supported by geologic mapping. Key petrophysical parameters include porosity, permeability and it many aspects, and water saturation. Field data collected to date suggest that the degree of hydrate saturation is strongly controlled by/dependant upon reservoir quality and that the ratio of free to bound water in the remaining pore space is likely also controlled by reservoir quality. Further, those parameters will also evolve during dissociation, and not necessary in a simple
modeling of modeling of reservoir in reservoir in artificial neu
African Journals Online (AJOL)
eobe
adequate inflow data modeling and forecasting is v essential for proper ... eed correct measurement, ates for future planning and .... (CCANN) were used to evaluate performance of ANNs in estimating ... appropriate low flow forecast model for the Meuse. River in Netherlands based on the comparison of output uncertainties ...
Modelling souring in a high salinity reservoir
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Adams, Michael; Crossland, Alan; Stott, Jim
2006-03-15
CAPCIS Ltd (Capcis) have developed a souring model for use in highly saline reservoirs where salinity limits the growth of sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB). Capcis have successfully applied the model to a field in North Africa. The conceptual basis of the model considers the course of the H2S from generation in the reservoir including dilution, sulphide retardation and scavenging and H2S fluid phase partitioning. At each stage mathematical equations governing the behaviour of the H2S were produced. In order to estimate the potential for H2S generation, it is required to know the chemistry of the injection and formation waters, as well as the properties of the indigenous SRB, i.e. the maximum salinity for their growth. This is determined by bottle testing of H2S generation by SRB at a range of injection/formation water ratios. The maximum salinity for SRB growth then determines the mixing ratios at which H2S generation takes place. Sulphide retardation due to adsorption at immobile interfaces was empirically modeled from reservoir data. Sulphide scavenging due to reaction with iron generated from corrosion was also modelled. Reservoir mineral scavenging was not modelled but could be incorporated in an extension to the model. Finally, in order to compute the gas-phase concentration of generated H2S, the H2S in the well stream is partitioned between the gas, oil and water phases. Capcis has carried out detailed computations of H2S solubility in crude oil and formation waters and the derivation of distribution ratios based on the respective partition coefficients using Gerard's line method, a modification of Henry's Law. (author) (tk)
The reservoir model: a differential equation model of psychological regulation.
Deboeck, Pascal R; Bergeman, C S
2013-06-01
Differential equation models can be used to describe the relationships between the current state of a system of constructs (e.g., stress) and how those constructs are changing (e.g., based on variable-like experiences). The following article describes a differential equation model based on the concept of a reservoir. With a physical reservoir, such as one for water, the level of the liquid in the reservoir at any time depends on the contributions to the reservoir (inputs) and the amount of liquid removed from the reservoir (outputs). This reservoir model might be useful for constructs such as stress, where events might "add up" over time (e.g., life stressors, inputs), but individuals simultaneously take action to "blow off steam" (e.g., engage coping resources, outputs). The reservoir model can provide descriptive statistics of the inputs that contribute to the "height" (level) of a construct and a parameter that describes a person's ability to dissipate the construct. After discussing the model, we describe a method of fitting the model as a structural equation model using latent differential equation modeling and latent distribution modeling. A simulation study is presented to examine recovery of the input distribution and output parameter. The model is then applied to the daily self-reports of negative affect and stress from a sample of older adults from the Notre Dame Longitudinal Study on Aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
Reservoir pressure evolution model during exploration drilling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Korotaev B. A.
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Based on the analysis of laboratory studies and literature data the method for estimating reservoir pressure in exploratory drilling has been proposed, it allows identify zones of abnormal reservoir pressure in the presence of seismic data on reservoir location depths. This method of assessment is based on developed at the end of the XX century methods using d- and σ-exponentials taking into account the mechanical drilling speed, rotor speed, bit load and its diameter, lithological constant and degree of rocks' compaction, mud density and "regional density". It is known that in exploratory drilling pulsation of pressure at the wellhead is observed. Such pulsation is a consequence of transferring reservoir pressure through clay. In the paper the mechanism for transferring pressure to the bottomhole as well as the behaviour of the clay layer during transmission of excess pressure has been described. A laboratory installation has been built, it has been used for modelling pressure propagation to the bottomhole of the well through a layer of clay. The bulge of the clay layer is established for 215.9 mm bottomhole diameter. Functional correlation of pressure propagation through the layer of clay has been determined and a reaction of the top clay layer has been shown to have bulge with a height of 25 mm. A pressure distribution scheme (balance has been developed, which takes into account the distance from layers with abnormal pressure to the bottomhole. A balance equation for reservoir pressure evaluation has been derived including well depth, distance from bottomhole to the top of the formation with abnormal pressure and density of clay.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wiggins, Michael L.; Brown, Raymon L.; Civan, Frauk; Hughes, Richard G.
2001-08-15
Research continues on characterizing and modeling the behavior of naturally fractured reservoir systems. Work has progressed on developing techniques for estimating fracture properties from seismic and well log data, developing naturally fractured wellbore models, and developing a model to characterize the transfer of fluid from the matrix to the fracture system for use in the naturally fractured reservoir simulator.
Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models
Iglesias, Marco A.; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M.
2013-01-01
is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based
Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syversveen, Anne Randi
1997-12-31
The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.
Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs
Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.
2017-06-01
Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.
System Dynamics Modeling of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ebrahim Momeni
2006-03-01
Full Text Available System dynamics, a feedback – based object – oriented simulation approach, not only represents complex dynamic systemic systems in a realistic way but also allows the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in modeling process. The increased speed of model development, the possibility of group model development, the effective communication of model results, and the trust developed in the model due to user participation are the main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling water management systems. In this study, a system dynamics model was developed for the Zayandehrud basin in central Iran. This model contains river basin, dam reservoir, plains, irrigation systems, and groundwater. Current operation rule is conjunctive use of ground and surface water. Allocation factor for each irrigation system is computed based on the feedback from groundwater storage in its zone. Deficit water is extracted from groundwater.The results show that applying better rules can not only satisfy all demands such as Gawkhuni swamp environmental demand, but it can also prevent groundwater level drawdown in future.
A Time Domain Update Method for Reservoir History Matching of Electromagnetic Data
Katterbauer, Klemens; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Sun, Shuyu
2014-01-01
production forecasts and optimizing reservoir exploitation. Reservoir history matching has played here a key role incorporating production, seismic, electromagnetic and logging data for forecasting the development of reservoirs and its depletion
Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model
Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik
2015-04-01
Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large
High resolution reservoir geological modelling using outcrop information
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang Changmin; Lin Kexiang; Liu Huaibo [Jianghan Petroleum Institute, Hubei (China)] [and others
1997-08-01
This is China`s first case study of high resolution reservoir geological modelling using outcrop information. The key of the modelling process is to build a prototype model and using the model as a geological knowledge bank. Outcrop information used in geological modelling including seven aspects: (1) Determining the reservoir framework pattern by sedimentary depositional system and facies analysis; (2) Horizontal correlation based on the lower and higher stand duration of the paleo-lake level; (3) Determining the model`s direction based on the paleocurrent statistics; (4) Estimating the sandbody communication by photomosaic and profiles; (6) Estimating reservoir properties distribution within sandbody by lithofacies analysis; and (7) Building the reservoir model in sandbody scale by architectural element analysis and 3-D sampling. A high resolution reservoir geological model of Youshashan oil field has been built by using this method.
Modeling of Reservoir Inflow for Hydropower Dams Using Artificial ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The stream flow at the three hydropower reservoirs in Nigeria were modeled using hydro-meteorological parameters and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model revealed positive relationship between the observed and the modeled reservoir inflow with values of correlation coefficient of 0.57, 0.84 and 0.92 for Kainji, ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Michael L. Wiggins; Raymon L. Brown; Faruk Civan; Richard G. Hughes
2002-12-31
For many years, geoscientists and engineers have undertaken research to characterize naturally fractured reservoirs. Geoscientists have focused on understanding the process of fracturing and the subsequent measurement and description of fracture characteristics. Engineers have concentrated on the fluid flow behavior in the fracture-porous media system and the development of models to predict the hydrocarbon production from these complex systems. This research attempts to integrate these two complementary views to develop a quantitative reservoir characterization methodology and flow performance model for naturally fractured reservoirs. The research has focused on estimating naturally fractured reservoir properties from seismic data, predicting fracture characteristics from well logs, and developing a naturally fractured reservoir simulator. It is important to develop techniques that can be applied to estimate the important parameters in predicting the performance of naturally fractured reservoirs. This project proposes a method to relate seismic properties to the elastic compliance and permeability of the reservoir based upon a sugar cube model. In addition, methods are presented to use conventional well logs to estimate localized fracture information for reservoir characterization purposes. The ability to estimate fracture information from conventional well logs is very important in older wells where data are often limited. Finally, a desktop naturally fractured reservoir simulator has been developed for the purpose of predicting the performance of these complex reservoirs. The simulator incorporates vertical and horizontal wellbore models, methods to handle matrix to fracture fluid transfer, and fracture permeability tensors. This research project has developed methods to characterize and study the performance of naturally fractured reservoirs that integrate geoscience and engineering data. This is an important step in developing exploitation strategies for
Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models
Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.
2017-12-01
A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.
Multiobjective Optimization Modeling Approach for Multipurpose Single Reservoir Operation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iosvany Recio Villa
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The water resources planning and management discipline recognizes the importance of a reservoir’s carryover storage. However, mathematical models for reservoir operation that include carryover storage are scarce. This paper presents a novel multiobjective optimization modeling framework that uses the constraint-ε method and genetic algorithms as optimization techniques for the operation of multipurpose simple reservoirs, including carryover storage. The carryover storage was conceived by modifying Kritsky and Menkel’s method for reservoir design at the operational stage. The main objective function minimizes the cost of the total annual water shortage for irrigation areas connected to a reservoir, while the secondary one maximizes its energy production. The model includes operational constraints for the reservoir, Kritsky and Menkel’s method, irrigation areas, and the hydropower plant. The study is applied to Carlos Manuel de Céspedes reservoir, establishing a 12-month planning horizon and an annual reliability of 75%. The results highly demonstrate the applicability of the model, obtaining monthly releases from the reservoir that include the carryover storage, degree of reservoir inflow regulation, water shortages in irrigation areas, and the energy generated by the hydroelectric plant. The main product is an operational graph that includes zones as well as rule and guide curves, which are used as triggers for long-term reservoir operation.
Ambient modal testing of a double-arch dam: the experimental campaign and model updating
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
García-Palacios, Jaime H.; Soria, José M.; Díaz, Iván M.; Tirado-Andrés, Francisco
2016-01-01
A finite element model updating of a double-curvature-arch dam (La Tajera, Spain) is carried out hereof using the modal parameters obtained from an operational modal analysis. That is, the system modal dampings, natural frequencies and mode shapes have been identified using output-only identification techniques under environmental loads (wind, vehicles). A finite element model of the dam-reservoir-foundation system was initially created. Then, a testing campaing was then carried out from the most significant test points using high-sensitivity accelerometers wirelessly synchronized. Afterwards, the model updating of the initial model was done using a Monte Carlo based approach in order to match it to the recorded dynamic behaviour. The updated model may be used within a structural health monitoring system for damage detection or, for instance, for the analysis of the seismic response of the arch dam- reservoir-foundation coupled system. (paper)
Modeling reservoir geomechanics using discrete element method : Application to reservoir monitoring
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Alassi, Haitham Tayseer
2008-09-15
Understanding reservoir geomechanical behavior is becoming more and more important for the petroleum industry. Reservoir compaction, which may result in surface subsidence and fault reactivation, occurs during reservoir depletion. Stress changes and possible fracture development inside and outside a depleting reservoir can be monitored using time-lapse (so-called '4D') seismic and/or passive seismic, and this can give valuable information about the conditions of a given reservoir during production. In this study we will focus on using the (particle-based) Discrete Element Method (DEM) to model reservoir geomechanical behavior during depletion and fluid injection. We show in this study that DEM can be used in modeling reservoir geomechanical behavior by comparing results obtained from DEM to those obtained from analytical solutions. The match of the displacement field between DEM and the analytical solution is good, however there is mismatch of the stress field which is related to the way stress is measured in DEM. A good match is however obtained by measuring the stress field carefully. We also use DEM to model reservoir geomechanical behavior beyond the elasticity limit where fractures can develop and faults can reactivate. A general technique has been developed to relate DEM parameters to rock properties. This is necessary in order to use correct reservoir geomechanical properties during modeling. For any type of particle packing there is a limitation that the maximum ratio between P- and S-wave velocity Vp/Vs that can be modeled is 3 . The static behavior for a loose packing is different from the dynamic behavior. Empirical relations are needed for the static behavior based on numerical test observations. The dynamic behavior for both dense and loose packing can be given by analytical relations. Cosserat continuum theory is needed to derive relations for Vp and Vs. It is shown that by constraining the particle rotation, the S-wave velocity can be
Surrogate reservoir models for CSI well probabilistic production forecast
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saúl Buitrago
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present the construction and use of Surrogate Reservoir Models capable of accurately predicting cumulative oil production for every well stimulated with cyclic steam injection at any given time in a heavy oil reservoir in Mexico considering uncertain variables. The central composite experimental design technique was selected to capture the maximum amount of information from the model response with a minimum number of reservoir models simulations. Four input uncertain variables (the dead oil viscosity with temperature, the reservoir pressure, the reservoir permeability and oil sand thickness hydraulically connected to the well were selected as the ones with more impact on the initial hot oil production rate according to an analytical production prediction model. Twenty five runs were designed and performed with the STARS simulator for each well type on the reservoir model. The results show that the use of Surrogate Reservoir Models is a fast viable alternative to perform probabilistic production forecasting of the reservoir.
Physical Model-Based Investigation of Reservoir Sedimentation Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng-Chia Huang
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Sedimentation is a serious problem in the operations of reservoirs. In Taiwan, the situation became worse after the Chi-Chi Earthquake recorded on 21 September 1999. The sediment trap efficiency in several regional reservoirs has been sharply increased, adversely affecting the operations on water supplies. According to the field record, the average annual sediment deposition observed in several regional reservoirs in Taiwan has been increased. For instance, the typhoon event recorded in 2008 at the Wushe Reservoir, Taiwan, produced a 3 m sediment deposit upstream of the dam. The remaining storage capacity in the Wushe Reservoir was reduced to 35.9% or a volume of 53.79 million m3 for flood water detention in 2010. It is urgent that research should be conducted to understand the sediment movement in the Wushe Reservoir. In this study, a scale physical model was built to reproduce the flood flow through the reservoir, investigate the long-term depositional pattern, and evaluate sediment trap efficiency. This allows us to estimate the residual life of the reservoir by proposing a modification of Brune’s method. It can be presented to predict the lifespan of Taiwan reservoirs due to higher applicability in both the physical model and the observed data.
Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.
2004-01-01
This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.
Modelling of Reservoir Operations using Fuzzy Logic and ANNs
Van De Giesen, N.; Coerver, B.; Rutten, M.
2015-12-01
Today, almost 40.000 large reservoirs, containing approximately 6.000 km3 of water and inundating an area of almost 400.000 km2, can be found on earth. Since these reservoirs have a storage capacity of almost one-sixth of the global annual river discharge they have a large impact on the timing, volume and peaks of river discharges. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are thus significantly influenced by these anthropogenic changes in river flows. We developed a parametrically parsimonious method to extract operational rules based on historical reservoir storage and inflow time-series. Managing a reservoir is an imprecise and vague undertaking. Operators always face uncertainties about inflows, evaporation, seepage losses and various water demands to be met. They often base their decisions on experience and on available information, like reservoir storage and the previous periods inflow. We modeled this decision-making process through a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks in an Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In a sensitivity analysis, we compared results for reservoirs in Vietnam, Central Asia and the USA. ANFIS can indeed capture reservoirs operations adequately when fed with a historical monthly time-series of inflows and storage. It was shown that using ANFIS, operational rules of existing reservoirs can be derived without much prior knowledge about the reservoirs. Their validity was tested by comparing actual and simulated releases with each other. For the eleven reservoirs modelled, the normalised outflow, , was predicted with a MSE of 0.002 to 0.044. The rules can be incorporated into GHMs. After a network for a specific reservoir has been trained, the inflow calculated by the hydrological model can be combined with the release and initial storage to calculate the storage for the next time-step using a mass balance. Subsequently, the release can be predicted one time-step ahead using the inflow and storage.
Reservoir Modeling Combining Geostatistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inversion
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zunino, Andrea; Lange, Katrine; Melnikova, Yulia
2014-01-01
We present a study on the inversion of seismic reflection data generated from a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for rock facies and porosity of the target reservoir zone. We solve this inverse problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method to handle the nonlinear...
The egg model - a geological ensemble for reservoir simulation
Jansen, J.D.; Fonseca, R.M.; Kahrobaei, S.; Siraj, M.M.; Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.
2014-01-01
The ‘Egg Model’ is a synthetic reservoir model consisting of an ensemble of 101 relatively small three-dimensional realizations of a channelized oil reservoir produced under water flooding conditions with eight water injectors and four oil producers. It has been used in numerous publications to
Fuzzy rule-based model for hydropower reservoirs operation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moeini, R.; Afshar, A.; Afshar, M.H. [School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2011-02-15
Real-time hydropower reservoir operation is a continuous decision-making process of determining the water level of a reservoir or the volume of water released from it. The hydropower operation is usually based on operating policies and rules defined and decided upon in strategic planning. This paper presents a fuzzy rule-based model for the operation of hydropower reservoirs. The proposed fuzzy rule-based model presents a set of suitable operating rules for release from the reservoir based on ideal or target storage levels. The model operates on an 'if-then' principle, in which the 'if' is a vector of fuzzy premises and the 'then' is a vector of fuzzy consequences. In this paper, reservoir storage, inflow, and period are used as premises and the release as the consequence. The steps involved in the development of the model include, construction of membership functions for the inflow, storage and the release, formulation of fuzzy rules, implication, aggregation and defuzzification. The required knowledge bases for the formulation of the fuzzy rules is obtained form a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model with a steady state policy. The proposed model is applied to the hydropower operation of ''Dez'' reservoir in Iran and the results are presented and compared with those of the SDP model. The results indicate the ability of the method to solve hydropower reservoir operation problems. (author)
A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System
Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.
2017-11-01
The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.
Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models
Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo
2016-04-01
Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir
Use of natural geochemical tracers to improve reservoir simulation models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huseby, O.; Chatzichristos, C.; Sagen, J.; Muller, J.; Kleven, R.; Bennett, B.; Larter, S.; Stubos, A.K.; Adler, P.M.
2005-01-01
This article introduces a methodology for integrating geochemical data in reservoir simulations to improve hydrocarbon reservoir models. The method exploits routine measurements of naturally existing inorganic ion concentration in hydrocarbon reservoir production wells, and uses the ions as non-partitioning water tracers. The methodology is demonstrated on a North Sea field case, using the field's reservoir model, together with geochemical information (SO{sub 4}{sup 2}, Mg{sup 2+} K{sup +}, Ba{sup 2+}, Sr{sup 2+}, Ca{sup 2+}, Cl{sup -} concentrations) from the field's producers. From the data-set we show that some of the ions behave almost as ideal sea-water tracers, i.e. without sorption to the matrix, ion-exchange with the matrix or scale-formation with other ions in the formation water. Moreover, the dataset shows that ion concentrations in pure formation-water vary according to formation. This information can be used to allocate produced water to specific water-producing zones in commingled production. Based on an evaluation of the applicability of the available data, one inorganic component, SO{sub 4}{sup 2}, is used as a natural seawater tracer. Introducing SO{sub 4}{sup 2} as a natural tracer in a tracer simulation has revealed a potential for improvements of the reservoir model. By tracking the injected seawater it was possible to identify underestimated fault lengths in the reservoir model. The demonstration confirms that geochemical data are valuable additional information for reservoir characterization, and shows that integration of geochemical data into reservoir simulation procedures can improve reservoir simulation models. (author)
Three dimensional heat transport modeling in Vossoroca reservoir
Arcie Polli, Bruna; Yoshioka Bernardo, Julio Werner; Hilgert, Stephan; Bleninger, Tobias
2017-04-01
Freshwater reservoirs are used for many purposes as hydropower generation, water supply and irrigation. In Brazil, according to the National Energy Balance of 2013, hydropower energy corresponds to 70.1% of the Brazilian demand. Superficial waters (which include rivers, lakes and reservoirs) are the most used source for drinking water supply - 56% of the municipalities use superficial waters as a source of water. The last two years have shown that the Brazilian water and electricity supply is highly vulnerable and that improved management is urgently needed. The construction of reservoirs affects physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the water body, e.g. stratification, temperature, residence time and turbulence reduction. Some water quality issues related to reservoirs are eutrophication, greenhouse gas emission to the atmosphere and dissolved oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion. The understanding of the physical processes in the water body is fundamental to reservoir management. Lakes and reservoirs may present a seasonal behavior and stratify due to hydrological and meteorological conditions, and especially its vertical distribution may be related to water quality. Stratification can control heat and dissolved substances transport. It has been also reported the importance of horizontal temperature gradients, e.g. inflows and its density and processes of mass transfer from shallow to deeper regions of the reservoir, that also may impact water quality. Three dimensional modeling of the heat transport in lakes and reservoirs is an important tool to the understanding and management of these systems. It is possible to estimate periods of large vertical temperature gradients, inhibiting vertical transport and horizontal gradients, which could be responsible for horizontal transport of heat and substances (e.g. differential cooling or inflows). Vossoroca reservoir was constructed in 1949 by the impoundment of São João River and is located near to
Molecular Simulation towards Efficient and Representative Subsurface Reservoirs Modeling
Kadoura, Ahmad Salim
2016-01-01
This dissertation focuses on the application of Monte Carlo (MC) molecular simulation and Molecular Dynamics (MD) in modeling thermodynamics and flow of subsurface reservoir fluids. At first, MC molecular simulation is proposed as a promising method
Sampling from stochastic reservoir models constrained by production data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hegstad, Bjoern Kaare
1997-12-31
When a petroleum reservoir is evaluated, it is important to forecast future production of oil and gas and to assess forecast uncertainty. This is done by defining a stochastic model for the reservoir characteristics, generating realizations from this model and applying a fluid flow simulator to the realizations. The reservoir characteristics define the geometry of the reservoir, initial saturation, petrophysical properties etc. This thesis discusses how to generate realizations constrained by production data, that is to say, the realizations should reproduce the observed production history of the petroleum reservoir within the uncertainty of these data. The topics discussed are: (1) Theoretical framework, (2) History matching, forecasting and forecasting uncertainty, (3) A three-dimensional test case, (4) Modelling transmissibility multipliers by Markov random fields, (5) Up scaling, (6) The link between model parameters, well observations and production history in a simple test case, (7) Sampling the posterior using optimization in a hierarchical model, (8) A comparison of Rejection Sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, (9) Stochastic simulation and conditioning by annealing in reservoir description, and (10) Uncertainty assessment in history matching and forecasting. 139 refs., 85 figs., 1 tab.
A Provenance Tracking Model for Data Updates
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Ciobanu
2012-08-01
Full Text Available For data-centric systems, provenance tracking is particularly important when the system is open and decentralised, such as the Web of Linked Data. In this paper, a concise but expressive calculus which models data updates is presented. The calculus is used to provide an operational semantics for a system where data and updates interact concurrently. The operational semantics of the calculus also tracks the provenance of data with respect to updates. This provides a new formal semantics extending provenance diagrams which takes into account the execution of processes in a concurrent setting. Moreover, a sound and complete model for the calculus based on ideals of series-parallel DAGs is provided. The notion of provenance introduced can be used as a subjective indicator of the quality of data in concurrent interacting systems.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martinez Reyes, Jose; Gonzalez Partida, Eduardo; Jorge, A [Centro de Geociencias, Universidad National Autonoma de Mexico Campo de Juriquilla, Qro., Mexico, apartado postal 76230 (Mexico); Perez, Renee J [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary, 500 University Drive, Calgary Alberta, T2N 1N4 (Canada); Tinoco, Michel
2008-10-01
Based on information of enthalpies of the fluids of wells from the geothermal reservoir of Los Humeros, Puebla, Mexico, we determined the thermodynamic conditions of the reservoir comparing the values of enthalpies of the fluids of discharge of the wells with the values published in the literature for different thermodynamic state of fluids.
Hydrodynamic modeling of petroleum reservoirs using simulator MUFITS
Afanasyev, Andrey
2015-04-01
MUFITS is new noncommercial software for numerical modeling of subsurface processes in various applications (www.mufits.imec.msu.ru). To this point, the simulator was used for modeling nonisothermal flows in geothermal reservoirs and for modeling underground carbon dioxide storage. In this work, we present recent extension of the code to petroleum reservoirs. The simulator can be applied in conventional black oil modeling, but it also utilizes a more complicated models for volatile oil and gas condensate reservoirs as well as for oil rim fields. We give a brief overview of the code by providing the description of internal representation of reservoir models, which are constructed of grid blocks, interfaces, stock tanks as well as of pipe segments and pipe junctions for modeling wells and surface networks. For conventional black oil approach, we present the simulation results for SPE comparative tests. We propose an accelerated compositional modeling method for sub- and supercritical flows subjected to various phase equilibria, particularly to three-phase equilibria of vapour-liquid-liquid type. The method is based on the calculation of the thermodynamic potential of reservoir fluid as a function of pressure, total enthalpy and total composition and storing its values as a spline table, which is used in hydrodynamic simulation for accelerated PVT properties prediction. We provide the description of both the spline calculation procedure and the flashing algorithm. We evaluate the thermodynamic potential for a mixture of two pseudo-components modeling the heavy and light hydrocarbon fractions. We develop a technique for converting black oil PVT tables to the potential, which can be used for in-situ hydrocarbons multiphase equilibria prediction under sub- and supercritical conditions, particularly, in gas condensate and volatile oil reservoirs. We simulate recovery from a reservoir subject to near-critical initial conditions for hydrocarbon mixture. We acknowledge
Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.
2017-12-01
The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.
Updating of states in operational hydrological models
Bruland, O.; Kolberg, S.; Engeland, K.; Gragne, A. S.; Liston, G.; Sand, K.; Tøfte, L.; Alfredsen, K.
2012-04-01
Operationally the main purpose of hydrological models is to provide runoff forecasts. The quality of the model state and the accuracy of the weather forecast together with the model quality define the runoff forecast quality. Input and model errors accumulate over time and may leave the model in a poor state. Usually model states can be related to observable conditions in the catchment. Updating of these states, knowing their relation to observable catchment conditions, influence directly the forecast quality. Norway is internationally in the forefront in hydropower scheduling both on short and long terms. The inflow forecasts are fundamental to this scheduling. Their quality directly influence the producers profit as they optimize hydropower production to market demand and at the same time minimize spill of water and maximize available hydraulic head. The quality of the inflow forecasts strongly depends on the quality of the models applied and the quality of the information they use. In this project the focus has been to improve the quality of the model states which the forecast is based upon. Runoff and snow storage are two observable quantities that reflect the model state and are used in this project for updating. Generally the methods used can be divided in three groups: The first re-estimates the forcing data in the updating period; the second alters the weights in the forecast ensemble; and the third directly changes the model states. The uncertainty related to the forcing data through the updating period is due to both uncertainty in the actual observation and to how well the gauging stations represent the catchment both in respect to temperatures and precipitation. The project looks at methodologies that automatically re-estimates the forcing data and tests the result against observed response. Model uncertainty is reflected in a joint distribution of model parameters estimated using the Dream algorithm.
Kim, J.; Johnson, L.; Cifelli, R.; Chandra, C. V.; Gochis, D.; McCreight, J. L.; Yates, D. N.; Read, L.; Flowers, T.; Cosgrove, B.
2017-12-01
NOAA National Water Center (NWC) in partnership with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other academic partners have produced operational hydrologic predictions for the nation using a new National Water Model (NWM) that is based on the community WRF-Hydro modeling system since the summer of 2016 (Gochis et al., 2015). The NWM produces a variety of hydrologic analysis and prediction products, including gridded fields of soil moisture, snowpack, shallow groundwater levels, inundated area depths, evapotranspiration as well as estimates of river flow and velocity for approximately 2.7 million river reaches. Also included in the NWM are representations for more than 1,200 reservoirs which are linked into the national channel network defined by the USGS NHDPlusv2.0 hydrography dataset. Despite the unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of the NWM, many known deficiencies exist, including the representation of lakes and reservoirs. This study addresses the implementation of a reservoir assimilation scheme through coupling of a reservoir simulation model to represent the influence of managed flows. We examine the use of the reservoir operations to dynamically update lake/reservoir storage volume states, characterize flow characteristics of river reaches flowing into and out of lakes and reservoirs, and incorporate enhanced reservoir operating rules for the reservoir model options within the NWM. Model experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain-Lake Mendocino, CA, and its contributing watershed, the East Fork Russian River. This reservoir is modeled using United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) HEC-ResSim developed for application to examine forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) in the Russian River basin.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Costa Reis, L.
2001-01-01
We have developed in this thesis a methodology of integrated characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs, from geologic modeling to history matching. This methodology is applied to the reservoir PBR, situated in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil, which has been producing since June 1979. This work is an extension of two other thesis concerning geologic and geostatistical modeling of the reservoir PBR from well data and seismic information. We extended the geostatistical litho-type model to the whole reservoir by using a particular approach of the non-stationary truncated Gaussian simulation method. This approach facilitated the application of the gradual deformation method to history matching. The main stages of the methodology for dynamic data integration in a geostatistical reservoir model are presented. We constructed a reservoir model and the initial difficulties in the history matching led us to modify some choices in the geological, geostatistical and flow models. These difficulties show the importance of dynamic data integration in reservoir modeling. The petrophysical property assignment within the litho-types was done by using well test data. We used an inversion procedure to evaluate the petrophysical parameters of the litho-types. The up-scaling is a necessary stage to reduce the flow simulation time. We compared several up-scaling methods and we show that the passage from the fine geostatistical model to the coarse flow model should be done very carefully. The choice of the fitting parameter depends on the objective of the study. In the case of the reservoir PBR, where water is injected in order to improve the oil recovery, the water rate of the producing wells is directly related to the reservoir heterogeneity. Thus, the water rate was chosen as the fitting parameter. We obtained significant improvements in the history matching of the reservoir PBR. First, by using a method we have proposed, called patchwork. This method allows us to built a coherent
Adjustment or updating of models
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
25, Part 3, June 2000, pp. 235±245 ... While the model is defined in terms of these spatial parameters, ... discussed in terms of `model order' with concern focused on whether or not the ..... In other words, it is not easy to justify what the required.
Model validation: Correlation for updating
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In this paper, a review is presented of the various methods which ... to make a direct and objective comparison of specific dynamic properties, measured ..... stiffness matrix is available from the analytical model, is that of reducing or condensing.
A Novel 3D Viscoelastic Acoustic Wave Equation Based Update Method for Reservoir History Matching
Katterbauer, Klemens
2014-01-01
of fluid fronts within the reservoir and determine the displacement caused by the injected fluids. This in turn has led to enhanced production strategies, cost reduction and increased profits. Conventional approaches to incorporate seismic data
Data Integration for the Generation of High Resolution Reservoir Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Albert Reynolds; Dean Oliver; Gaoming Li; Yong Zhao; Chaohui Che; Kai Zhang; Yannong Dong; Chinedu Abgalaka; Mei Han
2009-01-07
The goal of this three-year project was to develop a theoretical basis and practical technology for the integration of geologic, production and time-lapse seismic data in a way that makes best use of the information for reservoir description and reservoir performance predictions. The methodology and practical tools for data integration that were developed in this research project have been incorporated into computational algorithms that are feasible for large scale reservoir simulation models. As the integration of production and seismic data require calibrating geological/geostatistical models to these data sets, the main computational tool is an automatic history matching algorithm. The following specific goals were accomplished during this research. (1) We developed algorithms for calibrating the location of the boundaries of geologic facies and the distribution of rock properties so that production and time-lapse seismic data are honored. (2) We developed and implemented specific procedures for conditioning reservoir models to time-lapse seismic data. (3) We developed and implemented algorithms for the characterization of measurement errors which are needed to determine the relative weights of data when conditioning reservoir models to production and time-lapse seismic data by automatic history matching. (4) We developed and implemented algorithms for the adjustment of relative permeability curves during the history matching process. (5) We developed algorithms for production optimization which accounts for geological uncertainty within the context of closed-loop reservoir management. (6) To ensure the research results will lead to practical public tools for independent oil companies, as part of the project we built a graphical user interface for the reservoir simulator and history matching software using Visual Basic.
Geological model of supercritical geothermal reservoir related to subduction system
Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi
2017-04-01
Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power station on 3.11 (11th March) 2011, geothermal energy came to be considered one of the most promising sources of renewable energy for the future in Japan. The temperatures of geothermal fields operating in Japan range from 200 to 300 °C (average 250 °C), and the depths range from 1000 to 2000 m (average 1500 m). In conventional geothermal reservoirs, the mechanical behavior of the rocks is presumed to be brittle, and convection of the hydrothermal fluid through existing network is the main method of circulation in the reservoir. In order to minimize induced seismicity, a rock mass that is "beyond brittle" is one possible candidate, because the rock mechanics of "beyond brittle" material is one of plastic deformation rather than brittle failure. Supercritical geothermal resources could be evaluated in terms of present volcanic activities, thermal structure, dimension of hydrothermal circulation, properties of fracture system, depth of heat source, depth of brittle factures zone, dimension of geothermal reservoir. On the basis of the GIS, potential of supercritical geothermal resources could be characterized into the following four categories. 1. Promising: surface manifestation d shallow high temperature, 2 Probability: high geothermal gradient, 3 Possibility: Aseismic zone which indicates an existence of melt, 4 Potential : low velocity zone which indicates magma input. Base on geophysical data for geothermal reservoirs, we have propose adequate tectonic model of development of the supercritical geothermal reservoirs. To understand the geological model of a supercritical geothermal reservoir, granite-porphyry system, which had been formed in subduction zone, was investigated as a natural analog of the supercritical geothermal energy system. Quartz veins, hydrothermal breccia veins, and glassy veins are observed in a granitic body. The glassy veins formed at 500-550
Abdel-Fattah, Mohamed I.; Metwalli, Farouk I.; Mesilhi, El Sayed I.
2018-02-01
3D static reservoir modeling of the Bahariya reservoirs using seismic and wells data can be a relevant part of an overall strategy for the oilfields development in South Umbarka area (Western Desert, Egypt). The seismic data is used to build the 3D grid, including fault sticks for the fault modeling, and horizon interpretations and surfaces for horizon modeling. The 3D grid is the digital representation of the structural geology of Bahariya Formation. When we got a reasonably accurate representation, we fill the 3D grid with facies and petrophysical properties to simulate it, to gain a more precise understanding of the reservoir properties behavior. Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) techniques are the stochastic algorithms used to spatially distribute discrete reservoir properties (facies) and continuous reservoir properties (shale volume, porosity, and water saturation) respectively within the created 3D grid throughout property modeling. The structural model of Bahariya Formation exhibits the trapping mechanism which is a fault assisted anticlinal closure trending NW-SE. This major fault breaks the reservoirs into two major fault blocks (North Block and South Block). Petrophysical models classified Lower Bahariya reservoir as a moderate to good reservoir rather than Upper Bahariya reservoir in terms of facies, with good porosity and permeability, low water saturation, and moderate net to gross. The Original Oil In Place (OOIP) values of modeled Bahariya reservoirs show hydrocarbon accumulation in economic quantity, considering the high structural dips at the central part of South Umbarka area. The powerful of 3D static modeling technique has provided a considerable insight into the future prediction of Bahariya reservoirs performance and production behavior.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ricard, L.
2005-12-15
The high level geo-statistic description of the subsurface are often far too detailed for use in routine flow simulators. To make flow simulations tractable, the number of grid blocks has to be reduced: an approximation, still relevant with flow description, is necessary. In this work, we place the emphasis on the scaling procedure from the fine scale model to the multi-scale reservoir model. Two main problems appear: Near wells, faults and channels, the volume of flexible cells may be less than fine ones, so we need to solve a down-scaling problem; Far from these regions, the volume of cells are bigger than fine ones so we need to solve an up-scaling problem. In this work, research has been done on each of these three areas: down-scaling, up-scaling and fluid flow simulation. For each of these subjects, a review, some news improvements and comparative study are proposed. The proposed down-scaling method is build to be compatible with existing data integration methods. The comparative study shows that empirical methods are not enough accurate to solve the problem. Concerning the up-scaling step, the proposed approach is based on an existing method: the perturbed boundary conditions. An extension to unstructured mesh is developed for the inter-cell permeability tensor. The comparative study shows that numerical methods are not always as accurate as expected and the empirical model can be sufficient in lot of cases. A new approach to single-phase fluid flow simulation is developed. This approach can handle with full tensorial permeability fields with source or sink terms.(author)
Tamaki, M.; Komatsu, Y.; Suzuki, K.; Takayama, T.; Fujii, T.
2012-12-01
The eastern Nankai trough, which is located offshore of central Japan, is considered as an attractive potential resource field of methane hydrates. Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation is planning to conduct a production test in early 2013 at the AT1 site in the north slope of Daini-Atsumi Knoll in the eastern Nankai Trough. The depositional environment of methane hydrate-bearing sediments around the production test site is a deep submarine-fan turbidite system, and it is considered that the reservoir properties should show lateral as well as vertical heterogeneity. Since the variations in the reservoir heterogeneity have an impact on the methane hydrate dissociation and gas production performance, precise geological models describing reservoir heterogeneity would be required for the evaluation of reservoir potentials. In preparation for the production test, 3 wells; two monitoring boreholes (AT1-MC and AT1-MT1) and a coring well (AT1-C), were newly acquired in 2012. In addition to a geotechnical hole drilling survey in 2011 (AT1-GT), totally log data from 2 wells and core data from 2 wells were obtained around the production test site. In this study, we conducted well correlations between AT1 and A1 wells drilled in 2003 and then, 3D geological models were updated including AT1 well data in order to refine hydrate reservoir characterization around the production test site. The results of the well correlations show that turbidite sand layers are characterized by good lateral continuity, and give significant information for the distribution morphology of sand-rich channel fills. We also reviewed previously conducted 3D geological models which consist of facies distributions and petrophysical properties distributions constructed from integration of 3D seismic data and a well data (A1 site) adopting a geostatistical approach. In order to test the practical validity of the previously generated models, cross-validation was conducted using AT1 well data. The
Design and modeling of reservoir operation strategies for sediment management
Sloff, C.J.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Heynert, K.V.; Mohamed, Y.A.
2015-01-01
Appropriate operation strategies that allow for sediment flushing and sluicing (sediment routing) can reduce rapid storage losses of (hydropower and water-supply) reservoirs. In this study we have shown, using field observations and computational models, that the efficiency of these operations
Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.
1999-01-01
The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)
A Taxonomic Update of Small Mammal Plague Reservoirs in South America.
Bonvicino, Cibele R; Oliveira, João A; Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro; D'andrea, Paulo S; Almeida, Alzira M P
2015-10-01
Plague is a disease of epidemic potential that may emerge with discontinuous outbreaks. In South America, 50 wild rodent species have been identified as plague reservoirs, in addition to one lagomorph and two marsupials. To review the nomenclature of plague reservoirs, we examined specimens collected in plague foci, carried out new surveys in Brazilian plague regions, and re-evaluated the nomenclature of South American reservoirs on the basis of the current literature. Five of the 15 species involved with plague in Argentina, three of 10 species involved with plague in Bolivia, three of the seven species involved with plague in Peru, five of the nine species involved with plague in Ecuador, and six of the nine species involved with plague in Brazil have undergone taxonomic changes. In the last 20 years, plague cases were recorded in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru. These four countries have a high rodent species richness in plague foci, a fact that may be decisive for the maintenance of plague in the wild.
Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models
Iglesias, Marco A.
2013-07-14
The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our
Local Refinement of the Super Element Model of Oil Reservoir
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.B. Mazo
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a two-stage method for petroleum reservoir simulation. The method uses two models with different degrees of detailing to describe hydrodynamic processes of different space-time scales. At the first stage, the global dynamics of the energy state of the deposit and reserves is modeled (characteristic scale of such changes is km / year. The two-phase flow equations in the model of global dynamics operate with smooth averaged pressure and saturation fields, and they are solved numerically on a large computational grid of super-elements with a characteristic cell size of 200-500 m. The tensor coefficients of the super-element model are calculated using special procedures of upscaling of absolute and relative phase permeabilities. At the second stage, a local refinement of the super-element model is constructed for calculating small-scale processes (with a scale of m / day, which take place, for example, during various geological and technical measures aimed at increasing the oil recovery of a reservoir. Then we solve the two-phase flow problem in the selected area of the measure exposure on a detailed three-dimensional grid, which resolves the geological structure of the reservoir, and with a time step sufficient for describing fast-flowing processes. The initial and boundary conditions of the local problem are formulated on the basis of the super-element solution. This approach allows us to reduce the computational costs in order to solve the problems of designing and monitoring the oil reservoir. To demonstrate the proposed approach, we give an example of the two-stage modeling of the development of a layered reservoir with a local refinement of the model during the isolation of a water-saturated high-permeability interlayer. We show a good compliance between the locally refined solution of the super-element model in the area of measure exposure and the results of numerical modeling of the whole history of reservoir
Evaluation of field development plans using 3-D reservoir modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Seifert, D.; Lewis, J.J.M. [Heriot-Watt Univ., Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Newbery, J.D.H. [Conoco, UK Ltd., Aberdeen (United Kingdom)] [and others
1997-08-01
Three-dimensional reservoir modelling has become an accepted tool in reservoir description and is used for various purposes, such as reservoir performance prediction or integration and visualisation of data. In this case study, a small Northern North Sea turbiditic reservoir was to be developed with a line drive strategy utilising a series of horizontal producer and injector pairs, oriented north-south. This development plan was to be evaluated and the expected outcome of the wells was to be assessed and risked. Detailed analyses of core, well log and analogue data has led to the development of two geological {open_quotes}end member{close_quotes} scenarios. Both scenarios have been stochastically modelled using the Sequential Indicator Simulation method. The resulting equiprobable realisations have been subjected to detailed statistical well placement optimisation techniques. Based upon bivariate statistical evaluation of more than 1000 numerical well trajectories for each of the two scenarios, it was found that the wells inclinations and lengths had a great impact on the wells success, whereas the azimuth was found to have only a minor impact. After integration of the above results, the actual well paths were redesigned to meet external drilling constraints, resulting in substantial reductions in drilling time and costs.
Simulating reservoir lithologies by an actively conditioned Markov chain model
Feng, Runhai; Luthi, Stefan M.; Gisolf, Dries
2018-06-01
The coupled Markov chain model can be used to simulate reservoir lithologies between wells, by conditioning them on the observed data in the cored wells. However, with this method, only the state at the same depth as the current cell is going to be used for conditioning, which may be a problem if the geological layers are dipping. This will cause the simulated lithological layers to be broken or to become discontinuous across the reservoir. In order to address this problem, an actively conditioned process is proposed here, in which a tolerance angle is predefined. The states contained in the region constrained by the tolerance angle will be employed for conditioning in the horizontal chain first, after which a coupling concept with the vertical chain is implemented. In order to use the same horizontal transition matrix for different future states, the tolerance angle has to be small. This allows the method to work in reservoirs without complex structures caused by depositional processes or tectonic deformations. Directional artefacts in the modeling process are avoided through a careful choice of the simulation path. The tolerance angle and dipping direction of the strata can be obtained from a correlation between wells, or from seismic data, which are available in most hydrocarbon reservoirs, either by interpretation or by inversion that can also assist the construction of a horizontal probability matrix.
A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M
2014-01-01
Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)
ADVANCED TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR SIMULATION AND MODELING OF NONCONVENTIONAL WELLS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Louis J. Durlofsky; Khalid Aziz
2004-08-20
Nonconventional wells, which include horizontal, deviated, multilateral and ''smart'' wells, offer great potential for the efficient management of oil and gas reservoirs. These wells are able to contact larger regions of the reservoir than conventional wells and can also be used to target isolated hydrocarbon accumulations. The use of nonconventional wells instrumented with downhole inflow control devices allows for even greater flexibility in production. Because nonconventional wells can be very expensive to drill, complete and instrument, it is important to be able to optimize their deployment, which requires the accurate prediction of their performance. However, predictions of nonconventional well performance are often inaccurate. This is likely due to inadequacies in some of the reservoir engineering and reservoir simulation tools used to model and optimize nonconventional well performance. A number of new issues arise in the modeling and optimization of nonconventional wells. For example, the optimal use of downhole inflow control devices has not been addressed for practical problems. In addition, the impact of geological and engineering uncertainty (e.g., valve reliability) has not been previously considered. In order to model and optimize nonconventional wells in different settings, it is essential that the tools be implemented into a general reservoir simulator. This simulator must be sufficiently general and robust and must in addition be linked to a sophisticated well model. Our research under this five year project addressed all of the key areas indicated above. The overall project was divided into three main categories: (1) advanced reservoir simulation techniques for modeling nonconventional wells; (2) improved techniques for computing well productivity (for use in reservoir engineering calculations) and for coupling the well to the simulator (which includes the accurate calculation of well index and the modeling of multiphase flow
Level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir modeling
Iglesias, Marco A.; McLaughlin, Dennis
2011-03-01
In this paper we investigate the application of level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir models. The identification of facies is a geometrical inverse ill-posed problem that we formulate in terms of shape optimization. The goal is to find a region (a geologic facies) that minimizes the misfit between predicted and measured data from an oil-water reservoir. In order to address the shape optimization problem, we present a novel application of the level-set iterative framework developed by Burger in (2002 Interfaces Free Bound. 5 301-29 2004 Inverse Problems 20 259-82) for inverse obstacle problems. The optimization is constrained by (the reservoir model) a nonlinear large-scale system of PDEs that describes the reservoir dynamics. We reformulate this reservoir model in a weak (integral) form whose shape derivative can be formally computed from standard results of shape calculus. At each iteration of the scheme, the current estimate of the shape derivative is utilized to define a velocity in the level-set equation. The proper selection of this velocity ensures that the new shape decreases the cost functional. We present results of facies identification where the velocity is computed with the gradient-based (GB) approach of Burger (2002) and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) technique of Burger (2004). While an adjoint formulation allows the straightforward application of the GB approach, the LM technique requires the computation of the large-scale Karush-Kuhn-Tucker system that arises at each iteration of the scheme. We efficiently solve this system by means of the representer method. We present some synthetic experiments to show and compare the capabilities and limitations of the proposed implementations of level-set techniques for the identification of geologic facies.
Level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iglesias, Marco A; McLaughlin, Dennis
2011-01-01
In this paper we investigate the application of level-set techniques for facies identification in reservoir models. The identification of facies is a geometrical inverse ill-posed problem that we formulate in terms of shape optimization. The goal is to find a region (a geologic facies) that minimizes the misfit between predicted and measured data from an oil–water reservoir. In order to address the shape optimization problem, we present a novel application of the level-set iterative framework developed by Burger in (2002 Interfaces Free Bound. 5 301–29; 2004 Inverse Problems 20 259–82) for inverse obstacle problems. The optimization is constrained by (the reservoir model) a nonlinear large-scale system of PDEs that describes the reservoir dynamics. We reformulate this reservoir model in a weak (integral) form whose shape derivative can be formally computed from standard results of shape calculus. At each iteration of the scheme, the current estimate of the shape derivative is utilized to define a velocity in the level-set equation. The proper selection of this velocity ensures that the new shape decreases the cost functional. We present results of facies identification where the velocity is computed with the gradient-based (GB) approach of Burger (2002) and the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) technique of Burger (2004). While an adjoint formulation allows the straightforward application of the GB approach, the LM technique requires the computation of the large-scale Karush–Kuhn–Tucker system that arises at each iteration of the scheme. We efficiently solve this system by means of the representer method. We present some synthetic experiments to show and compare the capabilities and limitations of the proposed implementations of level-set techniques for the identification of geologic facies
Three-Dimensional Modeling of Fracture Clusters in Geothermal Reservoirs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ghassemi, Ahmad [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
2017-08-11
The objective of this is to develop a 3-D numerical model for simulating mode I, II, and III (tensile, shear, and out-of-plane) propagation of multiple fractures and fracture clusters to accurately predict geothermal reservoir stimulation using the virtual multi-dimensional internal bond (VMIB). Effective development of enhanced geothermal systems can significantly benefit from improved modeling of hydraulic fracturing. In geothermal reservoirs, where the temperature can reach or exceed 350oC, thermal and poro-mechanical processes play an important role in fracture initiation and propagation. In this project hydraulic fracturing of hot subsurface rock mass will be numerically modeled by extending the virtual multiple internal bond theory and implementing it in a finite element code, WARP3D, a three-dimensional finite element code for solid mechanics. The new constitutive model along with the poro-thermoelastic computational algorithms will allow modeling the initiation and propagation of clusters of fractures, and extension of pre-existing fractures. The work will enable the industry to realistically model stimulation of geothermal reservoirs. The project addresses the Geothermal Technologies Office objective of accurately predicting geothermal reservoir stimulation (GTO technology priority item). The project goal will be attained by: (i) development of the VMIB method for application to 3D analysis of fracture clusters; (ii) development of poro- and thermoelastic material sub-routines for use in 3D finite element code WARP3D; (iii) implementation of VMIB and the new material routines in WARP3D to enable simulation of clusters of fractures while accounting for the effects of the pore pressure, thermal stress and inelastic deformation; (iv) simulation of 3D fracture propagation and coalescence and formation of clusters, and comparison with laboratory compression tests; and (v) application of the model to interpretation of injection experiments (planned by our
Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model
Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian
2009-01-01
Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.
Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization
Huang, X.
2017-12-01
Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.
Seismic Modeling Of Reservoir Heterogeneity Scales: An Application To Gas Hydrate Reservoirs
Huang, J.; Bellefleur, G.; Milkereit, B.
2008-12-01
Natural gas hydrates, a type of inclusion compound or clathrate, are composed of gas molecules trapped within a cage of water molecules. The occurrence of gas hydrates in permafrost regions has been confirmed by core samples recovered from the Mallik gas hydrate research wells located within Mackenzie Delta in Northwest Territories of Canada. Strong vertical variations of compressional and shear sonic velocities and weak surface seismic expressions of gas hydrates indicate that lithological heterogeneities control the distribution of hydrates. Seismic scattering studies predict that typical scales and strong physical contrasts due to gas hydrate concentration will generate strong forward scattering, leaving only weak energy captured by surface receivers. In order to understand the distribution of hydrates and the seismic scattering effects, an algorithm was developed to construct heterogeneous petrophysical reservoir models. The algorithm was based on well logs showing power law features and Gaussian or Non-Gaussian probability density distribution, and was designed to honor the whole statistical features of well logs such as the characteristic scales and the correlation among rock parameters. Multi-dimensional and multi-variable heterogeneous models representing the same statistical properties were constructed and applied to the heterogeneity analysis of gas hydrate reservoirs. The petrophysical models provide the platform to estimate rock physics properties as well as to study the impact of seismic scattering, wave mode conversion, and their integration on wave behavior in heterogeneous reservoirs. Using the Biot-Gassmann theory, the statistical parameters obtained from Mallik 5L-38, and the correlation length estimated from acoustic impedance inversion, gas hydrate volume fraction in Mallik area was estimated to be 1.8%, approximately 2x108 m3 natural gas stored in a hydrate bearing interval within 0.25 km2 lateral extension and between 889 m and 1115 m depth
Modeling Study of High Pressure and High Temperature Reservoir Fluids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varzandeh, Farhad
properties like saturation pressures, densities at reservoir temperature and Stock TankviOil (STO) densities, while keeping the n-alkane limit of the correlations unchanged. Apart from applying this general approach to PC-SAFT, we have also shown that the approach can be applied to classical cubic models...... approach to characterizing reservoir fluids for any EoS. The approach consists in developing correlations of model parameters first with a database for well-defined components and then adjusting the correlations with a large PVT database. The adjustment is made to minimize the deviation in key PVT...... method to SRK and PR improved the saturation pressure calculation in comparisonto the original characterization method for SRK and PR. Using volume translationtogether with the new characterization approach for SRK and PR gives comparable results for density and STO density to that of original...
Scalable and Robust BDDC Preconditioners for Reservoir and Electromagnetics Modeling
Zampini, S.; Widlund, O.B.; Keyes, David E.
2015-01-01
The purpose of the study is to show the effectiveness of recent algorithmic advances in Balancing Domain Decomposition by Constraints (BDDC) preconditioners for the solution of elliptic PDEs with highly heterogeneous coefficients, and discretized by means of the finite element method. Applications to large linear systems generated by div- and curl- conforming finite elements discretizations commonly arising in the contexts of modelling reservoirs and electromagnetics will be presented.
Scalable and Robust BDDC Preconditioners for Reservoir and Electromagnetics Modeling
Zampini, S.
2015-09-13
The purpose of the study is to show the effectiveness of recent algorithmic advances in Balancing Domain Decomposition by Constraints (BDDC) preconditioners for the solution of elliptic PDEs with highly heterogeneous coefficients, and discretized by means of the finite element method. Applications to large linear systems generated by div- and curl- conforming finite elements discretizations commonly arising in the contexts of modelling reservoirs and electromagnetics will be presented.
A Novel 3D Viscoelastic Acoustic Wave Equation Based Update Method for Reservoir History Matching
Katterbauer, Klemens
2014-12-10
The oil and gas industry has been revolutionized within the last decade, with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing enabling the extraction of huge amounts of shale gas in areas previously considered impossible and the recovering of hydrocarbons in harsh environments like the arctic or in previously unimaginable depths like the off-shore exploration in the South China sea and Gulf of Mexico. With the development of 4D seismic, engineers and scientists have been enabled to map the evolution of fluid fronts within the reservoir and determine the displacement caused by the injected fluids. This in turn has led to enhanced production strategies, cost reduction and increased profits. Conventional approaches to incorporate seismic data into the history matching process have been to invert these data for constraints that are subsequently employed in the history matching process. This approach makes the incorporation computationally expensive and requires a lot of manual processing for obtaining the correct interpretation due to the potential artifacts that are generated by the generally ill-conditioned inversion problems. I have presented here a novel approach via including the time-lapse cross-well seismic survey data directly into the history matching process. The generated time-lapse seismic data are obtained from the full wave 3D viscoelastic acoustic wave equation. Furthermore an extensive analysis has been performed showing the robustness of the method and enhanced forecastability of the critical reservoir parameters, reducing uncertainties and exhibiting the benefits of a full wave 3D seismic approach. Finally, the improved performance has been statistically confirmed. The improvements illustrate the significant improvements in forecasting that are obtained via readily available seismic data without the need for inversion. This further optimizes oil production in addition to increasing return-on-investment on oil & gas field development projects, especially
SAM Photovoltaic Model Technical Reference 2016 Update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gilman, Paul [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); DiOrio, Nicholas A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Freeman, Janine M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Janzou, Steven [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron [No longer NREL employee; Ryberg, David [No longer NREL employee
2018-03-19
This manual describes the photovoltaic performance model in the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, Version 2016.3.14 Revision 4 (SSC Version 160). It is an update to the 2015 edition of the manual, which describes the photovoltaic model in SAM 2015.1.30 (SSC 41). This new edition includes corrections of errors in the 2015 edition and descriptions of new features introduced in SAM 2016.3.14, including: 3D shade calculator Battery storage model DC power optimizer loss inputs Snow loss model Plane-of-array irradiance input from weather file option Support for sub-hourly simulations Self-shading works with all four subarrays, and uses same algorithm for fixed arrays and one-axis tracking Linear self-shading algorithm for thin-film modules Loss percentages replace derate factors. The photovoltaic performance model is one of the modules in the SAM Simulation Core (SSC), which is part of both SAM and the SAM SDK. SAM is a user-friedly desktop application for analysis of renewable energy projects. The SAM SDK (Software Development Kit) is for developers writing their own renewable energy analysis software based on SSC. This manual is written for users of both SAM and the SAM SDK wanting to learn more about the details of SAM's photovoltaic model.
Updating parameters of the chicken processing line model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kurowicka, Dorota; Nauta, Maarten; Jozwiak, Katarzyna
2010-01-01
A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows...... updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens’s data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters...... of the chicken processing line model....
Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox, Phase II
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...
MARMOT update for oxide fuel modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Yongfeng [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schwen, Daniel [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Chakraborty, Pritam [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Jiang, Chao [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Aagesen, Larry [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ahmed, Karim [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Jiang, Wen [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Biner, Bulent [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bai, Xianming [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Tonks, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States); Millett, Paul [Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR (United States)
2016-09-01
This report summarizes the lower-length-scale research and development progresses in FY16 at Idaho National Laboratory in developing mechanistic materials models for oxide fuels, in parallel to the development of the MARMOT code which will be summarized in a separate report. This effort is a critical component of the microstructure based fuel performance modeling approach, supported by the Fuels Product Line in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The progresses can be classified into three categories: 1) development of materials models to be used in engineering scale fuel performance modeling regarding the effect of lattice defects on thermal conductivity, 2) development of modeling capabilities for mesoscale fuel behaviors including stage-3 gas release, grain growth, high burn-up structure, fracture and creep, and 3) improved understanding in material science by calculating the anisotropic grain boundary energies in UO$_2$ and obtaining thermodynamic data for solid fission products. Many of these topics are still under active development. They are updated in the report with proper amount of details. For some topics, separate reports are generated in parallel and so stated in the text. The accomplishments have led to better understanding of fuel behaviors and enhance capability of the MOOSE-BISON-MARMOT toolkit.
Updating river basin models with radar altimetry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Michailovsky, Claire Irene B.
suited for use in data assimilation frameworks which combine the information content from models and current observations to produce improved forecasts and reduce prediction uncertainty. The focus of the second and third papers of this thesis was therefore the use of radar altimetry as update data...... of political unwillingness to share data which is a common problem in particular in transboundary settings. In this context, remote sensing (RS) datasets provide an appealing alternative to traditional in-situ data and much research effort has gone into the use of these datasets for hydrological applications...... response of a catchment to meteorological forcing. While river discharge cannot be directly measured from space, radar altimetry (RA) can measure water level variations in rivers at the locations where the satellite ground track and river network intersect called virtual stations or VS. In this PhD study...
2017 Updates: Earth Gravitational Model 2020
Barnes, D. E.; Holmes, S. A.; Ingalls, S.; Beale, J.; Presicci, M. R.; Minter, C.
2017-12-01
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency [NGA], in conjunction with its U.S. and international partners, has begun preliminary work on its next Earth Gravitational Model, to replace EGM2008. The new `Earth Gravitational Model 2020' [EGM2020] has an expected public release date of 2020, and will retain the same harmonic basis and resolution as EGM2008. As such, EGM2020 will be essentially an ellipsoidal harmonic model up to degree (n) and order (m) 2159, but will be released as a spherical harmonic model to degree 2190 and order 2159. EGM2020 will benefit from new data sources and procedures. Updated satellite gravity information from the GOCE and GRACE mission, will better support the lower harmonics, globally. Multiple new acquisitions (terrestrial, airborne and shipborne) of gravimetric data over specific geographical areas (Antarctica, Greenland …), will provide improved global coverage and resolution over the land, as well as for coastal and some ocean areas. Ongoing accumulation of satellite altimetry data as well as improvements in the treatment of this data, will better define the marine gravity field, most notably in polar and near-coastal regions. NGA and partners are evaluating different approaches for optimally combining the new GOCE/GRACE satellite gravity models with the terrestrial data. These include the latest methods employing a full covariance adjustment. NGA is also working to assess systematically the quality of its entire gravimetry database, towards correcting biases and other egregious errors. Public release number 15-564
Scale Model Simulation of Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir Creation
Gutierrez, M.; Frash, L.; Hampton, J.
2012-12-01
diameter may be drilled into the sample while at reservoir conditions. This allows for simulation of borehole damage as well as injector-producer schemes. Dual 70 MPa syringe pumps set to flow rates between 10 nL/min and 60 mL/min injecting into a partially cased borehole allow for fully contained fracturing treatments. A six sensor acoustic emission (AE) array is used for geometric fracture location estimation during intercept borehole drilling operations. Hydraulic sensors and a thermocouple array allow for additional monitoring and data collection as relevant to computer model validation as well as field test comparisons. The results from preliminary tests inside and outside of the cell demonstrate the functionality of the equipment while also providing some novel data on the propagation and flow characteristics of hydraulic fractures themselves.
Experimental and numerical modeling of sulfur plugging in carbonate reservoirs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abou-Kassem, J.H. [Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, UAE University, PO Box 17555, Al-Ain (United Arab Emirates)
2000-05-01
Sour gas, mainly in the form of hydrogen sulfide, is produced in large amounts from many oil and gas reservoirs in the United Arab Emirates. In addition to creating problems in production lines, the precipitation of elemental sulfur in vicinity of the wellbore is often reported to cause wellbore damage. While there have been several studies performed on the role of solid deposition in gas reservoirs, the role of sulfur deposition in oil reservoirs has not been investigated. This paper presents experimental results along with a comprehensive wellbore model that predicts sulfur precipitation as well as plugging. Two separate sets of experiments, one for a gas phase system and another for a crude oil system, were conducted to investigate the deposition of elemental sulfur in (linear) carbonate cores. The gas flow tests were conducted with elemental sulfur being carried with nitrogen through limestone cores. Changes in gas flow rate were monitored while the injection pressure was held constant. A series of experiments generated valuable data for plugging with elemental sulfur. X-ray diffraction tests provided evidence of sulfur deposition along the cores. The oil flow tests were carried out to observe sulfur precipitation and plugging in a carbonate core. The crude oil was de-asphalted before conducting these tests in order to isolate the effect of asphaltene plugging. Significant plugging was observed and was found to be dependent on flow rate and initial sulfur concentration. This information was used in a phenomenological model that was incorporated in the wellbore numerical model. The data for the numerical model were obtained from both test tube and oil flow experiments. By using a phenomenological model, the wellbore plugging was modeled with an excellent match (with experimental results)
Optimal model of radiocarbon residence time in exchange reservoir
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dergachev, V.A.
1977-01-01
Radiocarbon content variations in the earth atmosphere were studied using a mathematical model. The so-called exchange reservoir was considered consisting of layers, and the radiocarbon exchange rate at the interfaces between these layers was supposed to be constant. The process of 14 C mixing and exchange in a dynamic system is described by a system of nonhomogeneous 1st order differential equations. The model also accounts for the change in rate of radiocarbon formation in the earth atmosphere due to cosmic and geophysical effects (solar activity, solar cycle, etc.). (J.P.)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Elsworth, Derek [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Izadi, Ghazal [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Gan, Quan [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Fang, Yi [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Taron, Josh [US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Sonnenthal, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2015-07-28
This work has investigated the roles of effective stress induced by changes in fluid pressure, temperature and chemistry in contributing to the evolution of permeability and induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs. This work has developed continuum models [1] to represent the progress or seismicity during both stimulation [2] and production [3]. These methods have been used to resolve anomalous observations of induced seismicity at the Newberry Volcano demonstration project [4] through the application of modeling and experimentation. Later work then focuses on the occurrence of late stage seismicity induced by thermal stresses [5] including the codifying of the timing and severity of such responses [6]. Furthermore, mechanistic linkages between observed seismicity and the evolution of permeability have been developed using data from the Newberry project [7] and benchmarked against field injection experiments. Finally, discontinuum models [8] incorporating the roles of discrete fracture networks have been applied to represent stimulation and then thermal recovery for new arrangements of geothermal wells incorporating the development of flow manifolds [9] in order to increase thermal output and longevity in EGS systems.
Moscariello, A.; Hoof, T.B. van; Kunakbayeva, G.; Veen, J.H. ten; Belt, F. van den; Twerda, A.; Peters, L.; Davis, P.; Williams, H.
2013-01-01
The Geological Model Calibration - Learnings from Integration of Reservoir Geology and Field Performance: example from the Upper Carboniferous Reservoirs of the Southern North Sea. Copyright © (2012) by the European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers All rights reserved.
Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model
Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.
2017-12-01
Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior
General Separations Area (GSA) Groundwater Flow Model Update: Hydrostratigraphic Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bagwell, L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Bennett, P. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
2017-02-21
This document describes the assembly, selection, and interpretation of hydrostratigraphic data for input to an updated groundwater flow model for the General Separations Area (GSA; Figure 1) at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This report is one of several discrete but interrelated tasks that support development of an updated groundwater model (Bagwell and Flach, 2016).
Fast model updating coupling Bayesian inference and PGD model reduction
Rubio, Paul-Baptiste; Louf, François; Chamoin, Ludovic
2018-04-01
The paper focuses on a coupled Bayesian-Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) approach for the real-time identification and updating of numerical models. The purpose is to use the most general case of Bayesian inference theory in order to address inverse problems and to deal with different sources of uncertainties (measurement and model errors, stochastic parameters). In order to do so with a reasonable CPU cost, the idea is to replace the direct model called for Monte-Carlo sampling by a PGD reduced model, and in some cases directly compute the probability density functions from the obtained analytical formulation. This procedure is first applied to a welding control example with the updating of a deterministic parameter. In the second application, the identification of a stochastic parameter is studied through a glued assembly example.
Coupling a fluid flow simulation with a geomechanical model of a fractured reservoir
Segura Segarra, José María; Paz, C.M.; de Bayser, M.; Zhang, J.; Bryant, P.W.; Gonzalez, Nubia Aurora; Rodrigues, E.; Vargas, P.E.; Carol, Ignacio; Lakshmikantha, Ramasesha Mookanahallipatna; Das, K. C.; Sandha, S.S.; Cerqueira, R.; Mello,, U.
2013-01-01
Improving the reliability of integrated reservoir development planning and addressing subsidence, fault reactivation and other environmental impacts, requires increasingly sophisticated geomechanical models, especially in the case of fractured reservoirs where fracture deformation is strongly coupled with its permeability change. Reservoir simulation has historically treated any geomechanical effects by means of a rock compressibility term/table, which can be improved by simulating the actual...
Direct Use Reservoir Models - How We think They Work
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Culver, G.
1990-01-01
The resource base for low-to-moderate temperature direct use geothermal applications is large and wide spread throughout the western United States. The models for direct use resources likely to be utilized in EPA Region IX depict fluids percolating to significant depths, being heated and convecting to the surface or near surface. The most commonly utilized resource is the fault controlled lateral leakage type. Geothermal fluids within the shallow reservoir vary in temperature and chemistry depending on the distance from the upflow zone. Regulations governing injected water chemistry compared to receiving water chemistry should take variations of chemistry into account.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McPherson, Brian J. [University of Utah; Pan, Feng [University of Utah
2014-09-24
This report summarizes development of a coupled-process reservoir model for simulating enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) that utilize supercritical carbon dioxide as a working fluid. Specifically, the project team developed an advanced chemical kinetic model for evaluating important processes in EGS reservoirs, such as mineral precipitation and dissolution at elevated temperature and pressure, and for evaluating potential impacts on EGS surface facilities by related chemical processes. We assembled a new database for better-calibrated simulation of water/brine/ rock/CO2 interactions in EGS reservoirs. This database utilizes existing kinetic and other chemical data, and we updated those data to reflect corrections for elevated temperature and pressure conditions of EGS reservoirs.
Numerical model updating technique for structures using firefly algorithm
Sai Kubair, K.; Mohan, S. C.
2018-03-01
Numerical model updating is a technique used for updating the existing experimental models for any structures related to civil, mechanical, automobiles, marine, aerospace engineering, etc. The basic concept behind this technique is updating the numerical models to closely match with experimental data obtained from real or prototype test structures. The present work involves the development of numerical model using MATLAB as a computational tool and with mathematical equations that define the experimental model. Firefly algorithm is used as an optimization tool in this study. In this updating process a response parameter of the structure has to be chosen, which helps to correlate the numerical model developed with the experimental results obtained. The variables for the updating can be either material or geometrical properties of the model or both. In this study, to verify the proposed technique, a cantilever beam is analyzed for its tip deflection and a space frame has been analyzed for its natural frequencies. Both the models are updated with their respective response values obtained from experimental results. The numerical results after updating show that there is a close relationship that can be brought between the experimental and the numerical models.
Finite element model updating using bayesian framework and modal properties
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Marwala, T
2005-01-01
Full Text Available Finite element (FE) models are widely used to predict the dynamic characteristics of aerospace structures. These models often give results that differ from measured results and therefore need to be updated to match measured results. Some...
The Pore-scale modeling of multiphase flows in reservoir rocks using the lattice Boltzmann method
Mu, Y.; Baldwin, C. H.; Toelke, J.; Grader, A.
2011-12-01
Digital rock physics (DRP) is a new technology to compute the physical and fluid flow properties of reservoir rocks. In this approach, pore scale images of the porous rock are obtained and processed to create highly accurate 3D digital rock sample, and then the rock properties are evaluated by advanced numerical methods at the pore scale. Ingrain's DRP technology is a breakthrough for oil and gas companies that need large volumes of accurate results faster than the current special core analysis (SCAL) laboratories can normally deliver. In this work, we compute the multiphase fluid flow properties of 3D digital rocks using D3Q19 immiscible LBM with two relaxation times (TRT). For efficient implementation on GPU, we improved and reformulated color-gradient model proposed by Gunstensen and Rothmann. Furthermore, we only use one-lattice with the sparse data structure: only allocate memory for pore nodes on GPU. We achieved more than 100 million fluid lattice updates per second (MFLUPS) for two-phase LBM on single Fermi-GPU and high parallel efficiency on Multi-GPUs. We present and discuss our simulation results of important two-phase fluid flow properties, such as capillary pressure and relative permeabilities. We also investigate the effects of resolution and wettability on multiphase flows. Comparison of direct measurement results with the LBM-based simulations shows practical ability of DRP to predict two-phase flow properties of reservoir rock.
Investigation of seasonal thermal flow in a real dam reservoir using 3-D numerical modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Üneş Fatih
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Investigations indicate that correct estimation of seasonal thermal stratification in a dam reservoir is very important for the dam reservoir water quality modeling and water management problems. The main aim of this study is to develop a hydrodynamics model of an actual dam reservoir in three dimensions for simulating a real dam reservoir flows for different seasons. The model is developed using nonlinear and unsteady continuity, momentum, energy and k-ε turbulence model equations. In order to include the Coriolis force effect on the flow in a dam reservoir, Coriolis force parameter is also added the model equations. Those equations are constructed using actual dimensions, shape, boundary and initial conditions of the dam and reservoir. Temperature profiles and flow visualizations are used to evaluate flow conditions in the reservoir. Reservoir flow’s process and parameters are determined all over the reservoir. The mathematical model developed is capable of simulating the flow and thermal characteristics of the reservoir system for seasonal heat exchanges. Model simulations results obtained are compared with field measurements obtained from gauging stations for flows in different seasons. The results show a good agreement with the field measurements.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Houssein, Daher E. [Centre d' Etudes et de Recherche de Djibouti, CERD, Earth Science, B.P. 486 Djibouti (Djibouti); Axelsson, Gudni [Slenskar Orkurannsoknir (ISOR), 9 Grensasvegi, Reykjavik, 108 (Iceland)
2010-09-15
Three independent geothermal systems have been identified, so far, in the Asal region of the Republic of Djibouti (i.e. Gale le Goma, Fiale and South of Lake). Six deep wells have been drilled in the region, the first two in 1975 and the others in 1987-88. Well A2 was damaged and wells A4 and A5 encountered impermeable yet very hot (340-365 C) rocks. Wells A1, A2, A3 and A6 produce highly saline (120 g/L TDS) fluids leading to mineral scaling. Well test data indicate that the reservoir might be producing from fractured and porous zones. The estimated permeability-thickness of the deep Gale le Goma reservoir is in the 3-9 darcy-meter range. Lumped-parameter modeling results indicate that well A3 should be operated at about 20 kg/s total flow rate and that injection should be considered to reduce pressure drawdown. The estimated power generation potential of well A3 is 2.5 MWe, and that of all Asal high-temperature hydrothermal systems is between 115 and 329 MWe for a 25-year exploitation period. (author)
A comparison of updating algorithms for large N reduced models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pérez, Margarita García [Instituto de Física Teórica UAM-CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Nicolás Cabrera 13-15, E-28049-Madrid (Spain); González-Arroyo, Antonio [Instituto de Física Teórica UAM-CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Nicolás Cabrera 13-15, E-28049-Madrid (Spain); Departamento de Física Teórica, C-XI Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Keegan, Liam [PH-TH, CERN,CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Okawa, Masanori [Graduate School of Science, Hiroshima University,Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Core of Research for the Energetic Universe, Hiroshima University,Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Ramos, Alberto [PH-TH, CERN,CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland)
2015-06-29
We investigate Monte Carlo updating algorithms for simulating SU(N) Yang-Mills fields on a single-site lattice, such as for the Twisted Eguchi-Kawai model (TEK). We show that performing only over-relaxation (OR) updates of the gauge links is a valid simulation algorithm for the Fabricius and Haan formulation of this model, and that this decorrelates observables faster than using heat-bath updates. We consider two different methods of implementing the OR update: either updating the whole SU(N) matrix at once, or iterating through SU(2) subgroups of the SU(N) matrix, we find the same critical exponent in both cases, and only a slight difference between the two.
A comparison of updating algorithms for large $N$ reduced models
Pérez, Margarita García; Keegan, Liam; Okawa, Masanori; Ramos, Alberto
2015-01-01
We investigate Monte Carlo updating algorithms for simulating $SU(N)$ Yang-Mills fields on a single-site lattice, such as for the Twisted Eguchi-Kawai model (TEK). We show that performing only over-relaxation (OR) updates of the gauge links is a valid simulation algorithm for the Fabricius and Haan formulation of this model, and that this decorrelates observables faster than using heat-bath updates. We consider two different methods of implementing the OR update: either updating the whole $SU(N)$ matrix at once, or iterating through $SU(2)$ subgroups of the $SU(N)$ matrix, we find the same critical exponent in both cases, and only a slight difference between the two.
Mathematical modeling of large floating roof reservoir temperature arena
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liu Yang
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The current study is a simplification of related components of large floating roof tank and modeling for three dimensional temperature field of large floating roof tank. The heat transfer involves its transfer between the hot fluid in the oil tank, between the hot fluid and the tank wall and between the tank wall and the external environment. The mathematical model of heat transfer and flow of oil in the tank simulates the temperature field of oil in tank. Oil temperature field of large floating roof tank is obtained by numerical simulation, map the curve of central temperature dynamics with time and analyze axial and radial temperature of storage tank. It determines the distribution of low temperature storage tank location based on the thickness of the reservoir temperature. Finally, it compared the calculated results and the field test data; eventually validated the calculated results based on the experimental results.
Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...
EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.
A poroelastic reservoir model for predicting subsidence and mapping subsurface pressure fronts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Du, J.; Olson, J.E.
2001-01-01
A forward model was constructed to numerically predict surface subsidence and reservoir compaction following the approach of Segall [Pure Appl. Phys. 139 (1992) 536]. A nucleus of poroelastic strain is numerically integrated over a rectangular prism assuming constant pressure change. This fundamental geometry allows a reservoir to be divided into many small cubic blocks in a manner similar to reservoir simulation. The subsidence and compaction effects of the pressure change throughout the reservoir are calculated by the superposition of results from each individual block. Using forward modeling, pressure boundary conditions can be acquired from pressure test data or reservoir simulation predictions. An inversion model also was developed that can track pressure fronts in a subsurface reservoir using surface displacements. The capability of the inversion model was demonstrated using synthetic examples of one-well and four-well cases with different layouts of surface observation locations. The impact of noise on the inversion result is also included
Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...
Bacteriophages: update on application as models for viruses in water
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Bacteriophages: update on application as models for viruses in water. ... the resistance of human viruses to water treatment and disinfection processes. ... highly sensitive molecular techniques viruses have been detected in drinking water ...
Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.
2016-09-08
Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2014, diversions of about 216,000 acre-feet from the Virgin River to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir stage and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2014, about 29,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, about 31,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2014, about 127,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer.Water quality continued to be monitored at various wells in Sand Hollow during 2013–14 to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Changing geochemical conditions at monitoring wells WD 4 and WD 12 indicate rising groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, which could be a precursor to the arrival of reservoir recharge.
Heilweil, Victor M.; Marston, Thomas M.
2011-01-01
Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2009, total surface-water diversions of about 154,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed it to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir water-level altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2009, a total of about 13,000 acre-feet of groundwater has been withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 14,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir.From 2002 through 2009, about 86,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water-quality sampling was conducted at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge moving through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2010, this recharge arrived at monitoring wells within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir.
Digital Core Modelling for Clastic Oil and Gas Reservoir
Belozerov, I.; Berezovsky, V.; Gubaydullin, M.; Yur’ev, A.
2018-05-01
"Digital core" is a multi-purpose tool for solving a variety of tasks in the field of geological exploration and production of hydrocarbons at various stages, designed to improve the accuracy of geological study of subsurface resources, the efficiency of reproduction and use of mineral resources, as well as applying the results obtained in production practice. The actuality of the development of the "Digital core" software is that even a partial replacement of natural laboratory experiments with mathematical modelling can be used in the operative calculation of reserves in exploratory drilling, as well as in the absence of core material from wells. Or impossibility of its research by existing laboratory methods (weakly cemented, loose, etc. rocks). 3D-reconstruction of the core microstructure can be considered as a cheap and least time-consuming method for obtaining petrophysical information about the main filtration-capacitive properties and fluid motion in reservoir rocks.
Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Oil Reservoirs Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Capolei, Andrea
expensive gradient computation by using high-order ESDIRK (Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta) temporal integration methods and continuous adjoints. The high order integration scheme allows larger time steps and therefore faster solution times. We compare gradient computation by the continuous...... gradient-based optimization and the required gradients are computed by the adjoint method. We propose the use of efficient high order implicit time integration methods for the solution of the forward and the adjoint equations of the dynamical model. The Ensemble Kalman filter is used for data assimilation...... equivalent strategy is not justified for the particular case studied in this paper. The third contribution of this thesis is a mean-variance method for risk mitigation in production optimization of oil reservoirs. We introduce a return-risk bicriterion objective function for the profit-risk tradeoff...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henn, N.
2000-12-13
Some of the most productive oil and gas reservoirs are found in formations crossed by multi-scale fractures/faults. Among them, conductive faults may closely control reservoir performance. However, their modelling encounters numerical and physical difficulties linked with (a) the necessity to keep an explicit representation of faults through small-size grid blocks, (b) the modelling of multiphase flow exchanges between the fault and the neighbouring medium. In this thesis, we propose a physically-representative and numerically efficient modelling approach in order to incorporate sub-vertical conductive faults in single and dual-porosity simulators. To validate our approach and demonstrate its efficiency, simulation results of multiphase displacements in representative field sector models are presented. (author)
Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model
Boone, Spencer
2017-01-01
This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.
Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.
2013-01-01
Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2011, surface-water diversions of about 199,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2011, a total of about 19,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 21,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2011, about 106,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water quality was sampled at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2012, this recharge arrived at four monitoring wells located within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir. Changing geochemical conditions at five other monitoring wells could indicate other processes, such as changing groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, rather than arrival of reservoir recharge.
Preconditioner Updates Applied to CFD Model Problems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Birken, P.; Duintjer Tebbens, Jurjen; Meister, A.; Tůma, Miroslav
2008-01-01
Roč. 58, č. 11 (2008), s. 1628-1641 ISSN 0168-9274 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300415; GA AV ČR KJB100300703 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : finite volume methods * update preconditioning * Krylov subspace methods * Euler equations * conservation laws Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.952, year: 2008
Modeling Tools for Drilling, Reservoir Navigation, and Formation Evaluation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sushant Dutta
2012-06-01
successfully explains the unusual curve separations of an array laterolog tool in a shale-gas formation. The third example uses two-dimensional (2-D and 3-D modeling to prove the efficacy of a new borehole technology for reservoir monitoring.
Modelling of sedimentation processes inside Roseires Reservoir (Sudan) (abstract)
Ali, Y.S.A.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Crosato, A.
2013-01-01
Roseires Reservoir is located on the Blue Nile River, in Sudan (figure 1). It is the first trap to the sediments coming from the upper catchment in Ethiopia, which suffers from high erosion and desertification problems. The reservoir lost already more than one third of its storage capacity due to
Potential implementation of reservoir computing models based on magnetic skyrmions
Bourianoff, George; Pinna, Daniele; Sitte, Matthias; Everschor-Sitte, Karin
2018-05-01
Reservoir Computing is a type of recursive neural network commonly used for recognizing and predicting spatio-temporal events relying on a complex hierarchy of nested feedback loops to generate a memory functionality. The Reservoir Computing paradigm does not require any knowledge of the reservoir topology or node weights for training purposes and can therefore utilize naturally existing networks formed by a wide variety of physical processes. Most efforts to implement reservoir computing prior to this have focused on utilizing memristor techniques to implement recursive neural networks. This paper examines the potential of magnetic skyrmion fabrics and the complex current patterns which form in them as an attractive physical instantiation for Reservoir Computing. We argue that their nonlinear dynamical interplay resulting from anisotropic magnetoresistance and spin-torque effects allows for an effective and energy efficient nonlinear processing of spatial temporal events with the aim of event recognition and prediction.
Integration of 3D photogrammetric outcrop models in the reservoir modelling workflow
Deschamps, Remy; Joseph, Philippe; Lerat, Olivier; Schmitz, Julien; Doligez, Brigitte; Jardin, Anne
2014-05-01
3D technologies are now widely used in geosciences to reconstruct outcrops in 3D. The technology used for the 3D reconstruction is usually based on Lidar, which provides very precise models. Such datasets offer the possibility to build well-constrained outcrop analogue models for reservoir study purposes. The photogrammetry is an alternate methodology which principles are based in determining the geometric properties of an object from photographic pictures taken from different angles. Outcrop data acquisition is easy, and this methodology allows constructing 3D outcrop models with many advantages such as: - light and fast acquisition, - moderate processing time (depending on the size of the area of interest), - integration of field data and 3D outcrops into the reservoir modelling tools. Whatever the method, the advantages of digital outcrop model are numerous as already highlighted by Hodgetts (2013), McCaffrey et al. (2005) and Pringle et al. (2006): collection of data from otherwise inaccessible areas, access to different angles of view, increase of the possible measurements, attributes analysis, fast rate of data collection, and of course training and communication. This paper proposes a workflow where 3D geocellular models are built by integrating all sources of information from outcrops (surface picking, sedimentological sections, structural and sedimentary dips…). The 3D geomodels that are reconstructed can be used at the reservoir scale, in order to compare the outcrop information with subsurface models: the detailed facies models of the outcrops are transferred into petrophysical and acoustic models, which are used to test different scenarios of seismic and fluid flow modelling. The detailed 3D models are also used to test new techniques of static reservoir modelling, based either on geostatistical approaches or on deterministic (process-based) simulation techniques. A modelling workflow has been designed to model reservoir geometries and properties from
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabella Eckerle
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Due to novel, improved and high-throughput detection methods, there is a plethora of newly identified viruses within the genus Hantavirus. Furthermore, reservoir host species are increasingly recognized besides representatives of the order Rodentia, now including members of the mammalian orders Soricomorpha/Eulipotyphla and Chiroptera. Despite the great interest created by emerging zoonotic viruses, there is still a gross lack of in vitro models, which reflect the exclusive host adaptation of most zoonotic viruses. The usually narrow host range and genetic diversity of hantaviruses make them an exciting candidate for studying virus-host interactions on a cellular level. To do so, well-characterized reservoir cell lines covering a wide range of bat, insectivore and rodent species are essential. Most currently available cell culture models display a heterologous virus-host relationship and are therefore only of limited value. Here, we review the recently established approaches to generate reservoir-derived cell culture models for the in vitro study of virus-host interactions. These successfully used model systems almost exclusively originate from bats and bat-borne viruses other than hantaviruses. Therefore we propose a parallel approach for research on rodent- and insectivore-borne hantaviruses, taking the generation of novel rodent and insectivore cell lines from wildlife species into account. These cell lines would be also valuable for studies on further rodent-borne viruses, such as orthopox- and arenaviruses.
Modeling of CO2 migration injected in Weyburn oil reservoir
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou Wei; Stenhouse, M.J.; Arthur, R.
2008-01-01
Injecting CO 2 into oil and gas field is a way to enhance oil recovery (EOR) as well as mitigate global warming effect by permanently storing the greenhouse gas into underground. This paper details the models and results of simulating the long-term migration of CO 2 injected into the Weyburn field for both Enhanced Oil Recovery operations and CO 2 sequestration. A System Model was established to define the spatial and temporal extents of the analysis. The Base Scenario was developed to identify key processes, features, and events (FEPs) for the expected evolution of the storage system. A compositional reservoir simulator with equations-of-states (EOS) was used as the modeling tool in order to simulate multiphase, multi-component flow and transport coupled with CO 2 mass partitioning into oil, gas, and water phases. We apply a deterministic treatment to CO 2 migration in the geosphere (natural pathways), whereas the variability of abandoned wells (man-made pathways) necessitates a stochastic treatment. The simulation result was then used to carry out consequence analysis to the local environment. (authors)
Advanced Techniques for Reservoir Simulation and Modeling of Non-Conventional Wells
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Durlofsky, Louis J.
2000-08-28
This project targets the development of (1) advanced reservoir simulation techniques for modeling non-conventional wells; (2) improved techniques for computing well productivity (for use in reservoir engineering calculations) and well index (for use in simulation models), including the effects of wellbore flow; and (3) accurate approaches to account for heterogeneity in the near-well region.
Fast Multiscale Reservoir Simulations using POD-DEIM Model Reduction
Ghasemi, Mohammadreza
2015-02-23
In this paper, we present a global-local model reduction for fast multiscale reservoir simulations in highly heterogeneous porous media with applications to optimization and history matching. Our proposed approach identifies a low dimensional structure of the solution space. We introduce an auxiliary variable (the velocity field) in our model reduction that allows achieving a high degree of model reduction. The latter is due to the fact that the velocity field is conservative for any low-order reduced model in our framework. Because a typical global model reduction based on POD is a Galerkin finite element method, and thus it can not guarantee local mass conservation. This can be observed in numerical simulations that use finite volume based approaches. Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method (DEIM) is used to approximate the nonlinear functions of fine-grid functions in Newton iterations. This approach allows achieving the computational cost that is independent of the fine grid dimension. POD snapshots are inexpensively computed using local model reduction techniques based on Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) which provides (1) a hierarchical approximation of snapshot vectors (2) adaptive computations by using coarse grids (3) inexpensive global POD operations in a small dimensional spaces on a coarse grid. By balancing the errors of the global and local reduced-order models, our new methodology can provide an error bound in simulations. Our numerical results, utilizing a two-phase immiscible flow, show a substantial speed-up and we compare our results to the standard POD-DEIM in finite volume setup.
Stone, Mandy L.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Gatotho, Jackline W.
2013-01-01
Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary water supplies for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station in Cheney Reservoir since 2001; continuously measured physicochemical properties include specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, fluorescence (wavelength range 650 to 700 nanometers; estimate of total chlorophyll), and reservoir elevation. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 2001 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, taste-and-odor compounds, cyanotoxins, phytoplankton community composition, actinomycetes bacteria, and other water-quality measures. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physicochemical properties to compute concentrations of constituents that are not easily measured in real time. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows quantification and characterization of potential constituents of concern in Cheney Reservoir. This report updates linear regression models published in 2006 that were based on data collected during 2001 through 2003. The update uses discrete and continuous data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. Updated models to compute dissolved solids, sodium, chloride, and suspended solids were similar to previously published models. However, several other updated models changed substantially from previously published models. In addition to updating relations that were previously developed, models also were developed for four new constituents, including magnesium, dissolved phosphorus, actinomycetes bacteria, and the cyanotoxin microcystin. In addition, a conversion factor of 0.74 was established to convert the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) model 6026 turbidity sensor measurements to the newer YSI
Application of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations to Reservoir Property Modelling
Potsepaev, R.
2010-09-06
Existing algorithms of geostatistics for stochastic modelling of reservoir parameters require a mapping (the \\'uvt-transform\\') into the parametric space and reconstruction of a stratigraphic co-ordinate system. The parametric space can be considered to represent a pre-deformed and pre-faulted depositional environment. Existing approximations of this mapping in many cases cause significant distortions to the correlation distances. In this work we propose a coordinate free approach for modelling stochastic textures through the application of stochastic partial differential equations. By avoiding the construction of a uvt-transform and stratigraphic coordinates, one can generate realizations directly in the physical space in the presence of deformations and faults. In particular the solution of the modified Helmholtz equation driven by Gaussian white noise is a zero mean Gaussian stationary random field with exponential correlation function (in 3-D). This equation can be used to generate realizations in parametric space. In order to sample in physical space we introduce a stochastic elliptic PDE with tensor coefficients, where the tensor is related to correlation anisotropy and its variation is physical space.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jae Chung Park
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The Andong and Imha reservoirs in South Korea are connected by a water transfer tunnel. The turbidity of the Imha reservoir is much higher than that of the Andong reservoir. Thus, it is necessary to examine the movement of turbidity between the two reservoirs via the water transfer tunnel. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the water transfer tunnel on the turbidity behavior of the two connecting reservoirs and to further understand the effect of reservoir turbidity distribution as a function of the selective withdrawal depth. This study applied the CE-QUAL-W2, a water quality and 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model, for simulating the hydrodynamic processes of the two reservoirs. Results indicate that, in the Andong reservoir, the turbidity of the released water with the water transfer tunnel was similar to that without the tunnel. However, in the Imha reservoir, the turbidity of the released water with the water transfer tunnel was lower than that without the tunnel. This can be attributed to the higher capacity of the Andong reservoir, which has double the storage of the Imha reservoir. Withdrawal turbidity in the Imha reservoir was investigated using the water transfer tunnel. This study applied three withdrawal selections as elevation (EL. 141.0 m, 146.5 m, and 152.0 m. The highest withdrawal turbidity resulted in EL. 141.0 m, which indicates that the high turbidity current is located at a vertical depth of about 20–30 m because of the density difference. These results will be helpful for understanding the release and selective withdrawal turbidity behaviors for a water transfer tunnel between two reservoirs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scheidt, Rafael de Faria; Vilain, Patrícia; Dantas, M A R
2014-01-01
Petroleum reservoir engineering is a complex and interesting field that requires large amount of computational facilities to achieve successful results. Usually, software environments for this field are developed without taking care out of possible interactions and extensibilities required by reservoir engineers. In this paper, we present a research work which it is characterized by the design and implementation based on a software product line model for a real distributed reservoir engineering environment. Experimental results indicate successfully the utilization of this approach for the design of distributed software architecture. In addition, all components from the proposal provided greater visibility of the organization and processes for the reservoir engineers
de Faria Scheidt, Rafael; Vilain, Patrícia; Dantas, M. A. R.
2014-10-01
Petroleum reservoir engineering is a complex and interesting field that requires large amount of computational facilities to achieve successful results. Usually, software environments for this field are developed without taking care out of possible interactions and extensibilities required by reservoir engineers. In this paper, we present a research work which it is characterized by the design and implementation based on a software product line model for a real distributed reservoir engineering environment. Experimental results indicate successfully the utilization of this approach for the design of distributed software architecture. In addition, all components from the proposal provided greater visibility of the organization and processes for the reservoir engineers.
Numerical modeling of shear stimulation in naturally fractured geothermal reservoirs
Ucar, Eren
2018-01-01
Shear-dilation-based hydraulic stimulations are conducted to create enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) from low permeable geothermal reservoirs, which are initially not amenable to energy production. Reservoir stimulations are done by injecting low-pressurized fluid into the naturally fractured formations. The injection aims to activate critically stressed fractures by decreasing frictional strength and ultimately cause a shear failure. The shear failure leads to a permanent ...
Ontology Update in the Cognitive Model of Ontology Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang De-Hai
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Ontology has been used in many hot-spot fields, but most ontology construction methods are semiautomatic, and the construction process of ontology is still a tedious and painstaking task. In this paper, a kind of cognitive models is presented for ontology learning which can simulate human being’s learning from world. In this model, the cognitive strategies are applied with the constrained axioms. Ontology update is a key step when the new knowledge adds into the existing ontology and conflict with old knowledge in the process of ontology learning. This proposal designs and validates the method of ontology update based on the axiomatic cognitive model, which include the ontology update postulates, axioms and operations of the learning model. It is proved that these operators subject to the established axiom system.
Information dissemination model for social media with constant updates
Zhu, Hui; Wu, Heng; Cao, Jin; Fu, Gang; Li, Hui
2018-07-01
With the development of social media tools and the pervasiveness of smart terminals, social media has become a significant source of information for many individuals. However, false information can spread rapidly, which may result in negative social impacts and serious economic losses. Thus, reducing the unfavorable effects of false information has become an urgent challenge. In this paper, a new competitive model called DMCU is proposed to describe the dissemination of information with constant updates in social media. In the model, we focus on the competitive relationship between the original false information and updated information, and then propose the priority of related information. To more effectively evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, data sets containing actual social media activity are utilized in experiments. Simulation results demonstrate that the DMCU model can precisely describe the process of information dissemination with constant updates, and that it can be used to forecast information dissemination trends on social media.
Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.
1991-01-01
The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs
Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.
2009-01-01
Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of
Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik
that are being updated from system measurements was studied. The results showed that the fact alone that it takes time for rainfall data to travel the distance between gauges and catchments has such a big negative effect on the forecast skill of updated models, that it can justify the choice of even very...... as in a real data case study. The results confirmed that the method is indeed suitable for DUDMs and that it can be used to utilise upstream as well as downstream water level and flow observations to improve model estimates and forecasts. Due to upper and lower sensor limits many sensors in urban drainage...
Development and application of 3-D fractal reservoir model based on collage theorem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, I.K.; Kim, K.S.; Sung, W.M. [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
1995-04-30
Reservoir characterization is the essential process to accurately evaluate the reservoir and has been conducted by geostatistical method, SRA algorithm, and etc. The characterized distribution of heterogeneous property by these methods shows randomly distributed phenomena, and does not present anomalous shape of property variation at discontinued space as compared with the observed shape in nature. This study proposed a new algorithm of fractal concept based on collage theorem, which can virtually present not only geometric shape of irregular and anomalous pore structures or coastlines, but also property variation for discontinuously observed data. With a basis of fractal concept, three dimensional fractal reservoir model was developed to more accurately characterize the heterogeneous reservoir. We performed analysis of pre-predictable hypothetically observed permeability data by using the fractal reservoir model. From the results, we can recognize that permeability distributions in the areal view or the cross-sectional view were consistent with the observed data. (author). 8 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.
Simulation and optimisation modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh Reservoir, Vietnam
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ngo, Long le; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2007-01-01
Hoa Binh, the largest reservoir in Vietnam, plays an important role in flood control for the Red River delta and hydropower generation. Due to its multi-purpose character, conflicts and disputes in operating the reservoir have been ongoing since its construction, particularly in the flood season....... This paper proposes to optimise the control strategies for the Hoa Binh reservoir operation by applying a combination of simulation and optimisation models. The control strategies are set up in the MIKE 11 simulation model to guide the releases of the reservoir system according to the current storage level......, the hydro-meteorological conditions, and the time of the year. A heuristic global optimisation tool, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm, is adopted for optimising the reservoir operation. The optimisation puts focus on the trade-off between flood control and hydropower generation for the Hoa...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kerr, D.; Epili, D.; Kelkar, M.; Redner, R.; Reynolds, A.
1998-12-01
The study was comprised of four investigations: facies architecture; seismic modeling and interpretation; Markov random field and Boolean models for geologic modeling of facies distribution; and estimation of geological architecture using the Bayesian/maximum entropy approach. This report discusses results from all four investigations. Investigations were performed using data from the E and F units of the Middle Frio Formation, Stratton Field, one of the major reservoir intervals in the Gulf Coast Basin.
Molecular Simulation towards Efficient and Representative Subsurface Reservoirs Modeling
Kadoura, Ahmad
2016-09-01
This dissertation focuses on the application of Monte Carlo (MC) molecular simulation and Molecular Dynamics (MD) in modeling thermodynamics and flow of subsurface reservoir fluids. At first, MC molecular simulation is proposed as a promising method to replace correlations and equations of state in subsurface flow simulators. In order to accelerate MC simulations, a set of early rejection schemes (conservative, hybrid, and non-conservative) in addition to extrapolation methods through reweighting and reconstruction of pre-generated MC Markov chains were developed. Furthermore, an extensive study was conducted to investigate sorption and transport processes of methane, carbon dioxide, water, and their mixtures in the inorganic part of shale using both MC and MD simulations. These simulations covered a wide range of thermodynamic conditions, pore sizes, and fluid compositions shedding light on several interesting findings. For example, the possibility to have more carbon dioxide adsorbed with more preadsorbed water concentrations at relatively large basal spaces. The dissertation is divided into four chapters. The first chapter corresponds to the introductory part where a brief background about molecular simulation and motivations are given. The second chapter is devoted to discuss the theoretical aspects and methodology of the proposed MC speeding up techniques in addition to the corresponding results leading to the successful multi-scale simulation of the compressible single-phase flow scenario. In chapter 3, the results regarding our extensive study on shale gas at laboratory conditions are reported. At the fourth and last chapter, we end the dissertation with few concluding remarks highlighting the key findings and summarizing the future directions.
Allawi, Mohammed Falah; Jaafar, Othman; Mohamad Hamzah, Firdaus; Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed; El-Shafie, Ahmed
2018-05-01
Efficacious operation for dam and reservoir system could guarantee not only a defenselessness policy against natural hazard but also identify rule to meet the water demand. Successful operation of dam and reservoir systems to ensure optimal use of water resources could be unattainable without accurate and reliable simulation models. According to the highly stochastic nature of hydrologic parameters, developing accurate predictive model that efficiently mimic such a complex pattern is an increasing domain of research. During the last two decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been significantly utilized for attaining a robust modeling to handle different stochastic hydrological parameters. AI techniques have also shown considerable progress in finding optimal rules for reservoir operation. This review research explores the history of developing AI in reservoir inflow forecasting and prediction of evaporation from a reservoir as the major components of the reservoir simulation. In addition, critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of integrated AI simulation methods with optimization methods has been reported. Future research on the potential of utilizing new innovative methods based AI techniques for reservoir simulation and optimization models have also been discussed. Finally, proposal for the new mathematical procedure to accomplish the realistic evaluation of the whole optimization model performance (reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices) has been recommended.
Lu, M.; Lall, U.
2013-12-01
In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The
Monte Carlo Analysis of Reservoir Models Using Seismic Data and Geostatistical Models
Zunino, A.; Mosegaard, K.; Lange, K.; Melnikova, Y.; Hansen, T. M.
2013-12-01
We present a study on the analysis of petroleum reservoir models consistent with seismic data and geostatistical constraints performed on a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for structure and rock bulk properties of the target reservoir zone. To infer the rock facies, porosity and oil saturation seismology alone is not sufficient but a rock physics model must be taken into account, which links the unknown properties to the elastic parameters. We then combine a rock physics model with a simple convolutional approach for seismic waves to invert the "measured" seismograms. To solve this inverse problem, we employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, because it offers the possibility to handle non-linearity, complex and multi-step forward models and provides realistic estimates of uncertainties. However, for large data sets the MCMC method may be impractical because of a very high computational demand. To face this challenge one strategy is to feed the algorithm with realistic models, hence relying on proper prior information. To address this problem, we utilize an algorithm drawn from geostatistics to generate geologically plausible models which represent samples of the prior distribution. The geostatistical algorithm learns the multiple-point statistics from prototype models (in the form of training images), then generates thousands of different models which are accepted or rejected by a Metropolis sampler. To further reduce the computation time we parallelize the software and run it on multi-core machines. The solution of the inverse problem is then represented by a collection of reservoir models in terms of facies, porosity and oil saturation, which constitute samples of the posterior distribution. We are finally able to produce probability maps of the properties we are interested in by performing statistical analysis on the collection of solutions.
Development of a Cerebrospinal Fluid Lateral Reservoir Model in Rhesus Monkeys (Macaca mulatta)
Lester McCully, Cynthia M; Bacher, John; MacAllister, Rhonda P; Steffen-Smith, Emilie A; Saleem, Kadharbatcha; Thomas, Marvin L; Cruz, Rafael; Warren, Katherine E
2015-01-01
Rapid, serial, and humane collection of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in nonhuman primates (NHP) is an essential element of numerous research studies and is currently accomplished via two different models. The CSF reservoir model (FR) combines a catheter in the 4th ventricle with a flexible silastic reservoir to permit circulating CSF flow. The CSF lateral port model (LP) consists of a lateral ventricular catheter and an IV port that provides static access to CSF and volume restrictions on sample...
Crushed-salt constitutive model update
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Mellegard, K.D.; Hansen, F.D.
1998-01-01
Modifications to the constitutive model used to describe the deformation of crushed salt are presented in this report. Two mechanisms--dislocation creep and grain boundary diffusional pressure solutioning--defined previously but used separately are combined to form the basis for the constitutive model governing the deformation of crushed salt. The constitutive model is generalized to represent three-dimensional states of stress. New creep consolidation tests are combined with an existing database that includes hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and southeastern New Mexico salt to determine material parameters for the constitutive model. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to data from the shear consolidation tests and a combination of the shear and hydrostatic consolidation tests produced two sets of material parameter values for the model. The change in material parameter values from test group to test group indicates the empirical nature of the model but demonstrates improvement over earlier work with the previous models. Key improvements are the ability to capture lateral strain reversal and better resolve parameter values. To demonstrate the predictive capability of the model, each parameter value set was used to predict each of the tests in the database. Based on the fitting statistics and the ability of the model to predict the test data, the model appears to capture the creep consolidation behavior of crushed salt quite well
Crushed-salt constitutive model update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Mellegard, K.D. [RE/SPEC Inc., Rapid City, SD (United States); Hansen, F.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
1998-01-01
Modifications to the constitutive model used to describe the deformation of crushed salt are presented in this report. Two mechanisms--dislocation creep and grain boundary diffusional pressure solutioning--defined previously but used separately are combined to form the basis for the constitutive model governing the deformation of crushed salt. The constitutive model is generalized to represent three-dimensional states of stress. New creep consolidation tests are combined with an existing database that includes hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and southeastern New Mexico salt to determine material parameters for the constitutive model. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to data from the shear consolidation tests and a combination of the shear and hydrostatic consolidation tests produced two sets of material parameter values for the model. The change in material parameter values from test group to test group indicates the empirical nature of the model but demonstrates improvement over earlier work with the previous models. Key improvements are the ability to capture lateral strain reversal and better resolve parameter values. To demonstrate the predictive capability of the model, each parameter value set was used to predict each of the tests in the database. Based on the fitting statistics and the ability of the model to predict the test data, the model appears to capture the creep consolidation behavior of crushed salt quite well.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.
1992-01-01
A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neural reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers, geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.
1992-01-01
A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neutral reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach
Optimization of Multipurpose Reservoir Systems Using Power Market Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pereira-Cardenal, S. J.; Mo, B.; Riegels, N.
2015-01-01
optimal operation rules that maximize current and expected future benefits as a function of reservoir level, week of the year, and inflow state. The method was tested on the Iberian Peninsula and performed better than traditional approaches that use exogenous prices: resulting operation rules were more...
2-D Water Quality Modelling of a Drinking Water Reservoir
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Růžička, Martin; Hejzlar, J.; Mikešová, P.; Cole, T. M.
2002-01-01
Roč. 50, č. 3 (2002), s. 258-272 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/98/0281; GA AV ČR IAA3042903 Grant - others:USARGD-UK(USA) N68171-99-M-6754 Keywords : CE-QUAL-W2 * Dimictic stratified reservoir * Sensitivity analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology
Construction and Updating of Event Models in Auditory Event Processing
Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E.; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank
2018-01-01
Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event…
An Update on Modifications to Water Treatment Plant Model
Water treatment plant (WTP) model is an EPA tool for informing regulatory options. WTP has a few versions: 1). WTP2.2 can help in regulatory analysis. An updated version (WTP3.0) will allow plant-specific analysis (WTP-ccam) and thus help meet plant-specific treatment objectives...
The model coupling fluid flow in reservoir with flow in horizontal wellbore
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Xiangping; Jiang, Zhixiang [RIPED-TEXACO Horizontal Well Technology Laboratory (United States)
1998-12-31
Three-dimensional pressure distributions of oil flow in a reservoir with horizontal well were derived, and a new formula to calculate pressure drop along the horizontal wellbore was developed based on the principle of conservation of matter and momentum. The formula considers the effect of influx into the horizontal wellbore from the reservoir on pressure drop in the wellbore. A mathematical model to couple fluid flow in the reservoir with flow in the horizontal wellbore is presented. Model results and experimental data showed good correspondence. Results showed the influence of pressure drop on well performance. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs.
Kondo dynamics of quasiparticle tunneling in a two-reservoir Anderson model.
Hong, Jongbae
2011-07-13
We study the Kondo dynamics in a two-reservoir Anderson impurity model in which quasiparticle tunneling occurs between two reservoirs. We show that singlet hopping is an essential component of Kondo dynamics in the quasiparticle tunneling. We prove that two resonant tunneling levels exist in the two-reservoir Anderson impurity model and the quasiparticle tunnels through one of these levels when a bias is applied. The Kondo dynamics is explained by obtaining the retarded Green's function. We obtain the analytic expressions of the spectral weights of coherent peaks by analyzing the Green's function at the atomic limit.
Kondo dynamics of quasiparticle tunneling in a two-reservoir Anderson model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hong, Jongbae
2011-01-01
We study the Kondo dynamics in a two-reservoir Anderson impurity model in which quasiparticle tunneling occurs between two reservoirs. We show that singlet hopping is an essential component of Kondo dynamics in the quasiparticle tunneling. We prove that two resonant tunneling levels exist in the two-reservoir Anderson impurity model and the quasiparticle tunnels through one of these levels when a bias is applied. The Kondo dynamics is explained by obtaining the retarded Green's function. We obtain the analytic expressions of the spectral weights of coherent peaks by analyzing the Green's function at the atomic limit.
Prediction of tectonic stresses and fracture networks with geomechanical reservoir models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henk, A.; Fischer, K.
2014-09-01
This project evaluates the potential of geomechanical Finite Element (FE) models for the prediction of in situ stresses and fracture networks in faulted reservoirs. Modeling focuses on spatial variations of the in situ stress distribution resulting from faults and contrasts in mechanical rock properties. In a first methodological part, a workflow is developed for building such geomechanical reservoir models and calibrating them to field data. In the second part, this workflow was applied successfully to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. A truly field-scale geomechanical model covering more than 400km 2 was built and calibrated. It includes a mechanical stratigraphy as well as a network of 86 faults. The latter are implemented as distinct planes of weakness and allow the fault-specific evaluation of shear and normal stresses. A so-called static model describes the recent state of the reservoir and, thus, after calibration its results reveal the present-day in situ stress distribution. Further geodynamic modeling work considers the major stages in the tectonic history of the reservoir and provides insights in the paleo stress distribution. These results are compared to fracture data and hydraulic fault behavior observed today. The outcome of this project confirms the potential of geomechanical FE models for robust stress and fracture predictions. The workflow is generally applicable and can be used for modeling of any stress-sensitive reservoir.
Prediction of tectonic stresses and fracture networks with geomechanical reservoir models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henk, A.; Fischer, K. [TU Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Geowissenschaften
2014-09-15
This project evaluates the potential of geomechanical Finite Element (FE) models for the prediction of in situ stresses and fracture networks in faulted reservoirs. Modeling focuses on spatial variations of the in situ stress distribution resulting from faults and contrasts in mechanical rock properties. In a first methodological part, a workflow is developed for building such geomechanical reservoir models and calibrating them to field data. In the second part, this workflow was applied successfully to an intensively faulted gas reservoir in the North German Basin. A truly field-scale geomechanical model covering more than 400km{sup 2} was built and calibrated. It includes a mechanical stratigraphy as well as a network of 86 faults. The latter are implemented as distinct planes of weakness and allow the fault-specific evaluation of shear and normal stresses. A so-called static model describes the recent state of the reservoir and, thus, after calibration its results reveal the present-day in situ stress distribution. Further geodynamic modeling work considers the major stages in the tectonic history of the reservoir and provides insights in the paleo stress distribution. These results are compared to fracture data and hydraulic fault behavior observed today. The outcome of this project confirms the potential of geomechanical FE models for robust stress and fracture predictions. The workflow is generally applicable and can be used for modeling of any stress-sensitive reservoir.
Purchasing portfolio models: a critique and update
Gelderman, C.J.; Weele, van A.J.
2005-01-01
Purchasing portfolio models have spawned considerable discussion in the literature. Many advantages and disadvantages have been put forward, revealing considerable divergence in opinion on the merits of portfolio models. This study addresses the question of whether or not the use of purchasing
Modelling CO2 emissions from water surface of a boreal hydroelectric reservoir.
Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Kim, Youngil; Strachan, Ian B; Del Giorgio, Paul; Prairie, Yves T; Tremblay, Alain
2018-01-15
To quantify CO 2 emissions from water surface of a reservoir that was shaped by flooding the boreal landscape, we developed a daily time-step reservoir biogeochemistry model. We calibrated the model using the measured concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (C) in a young boreal hydroelectric reservoir, Eastmain-1 (EM-1), in northern Quebec, Canada. We validated the model against observed CO 2 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the middle of EM-1. The model predicted the variability of CO 2 emissions reasonably well compared to the observations (root mean square error: 0.4-1.3gCm -2 day -1 , revised Willmott index: 0.16-0.55). In particular, we demonstrated that the annual reservoir surface effluxes were initially high, steeply declined in the first three years, and then steadily decreased to ~115gCm -2 yr -1 with increasing reservoir age over the estimated "engineering" reservoir lifetime (i.e., 100years). Sensitivity analyses revealed that increasing air temperature stimulated CO 2 emissions by enhancing CO 2 production in the water column and sediment, and extending the duration of open water period over which emissions occur. Increasing the amount of terrestrial organic C flooded can enhance benthic CO 2 fluxes and CO 2 emissions from the reservoir water surface, but the effects were not significant over the simulation period. The model is useful for the understanding of the mechanism of C dynamics in reservoirs and could be used to assist the hydro-power industry and others interested in the role of boreal hydroelectric reservoirs as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.
2017-12-01
Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides
A Kriging Model Based Finite Element Model Updating Method for Damage Detection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiuming Yang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Model updating is an effective means of damage identification and surrogate modeling has attracted considerable attention for saving computational cost in finite element (FE model updating, especially for large-scale structures. In this context, a surrogate model of frequency is normally constructed for damage identification, while the frequency response function (FRF is rarely used as it usually changes dramatically with updating parameters. This paper presents a new surrogate model based model updating method taking advantage of the measured FRFs. The Frequency Domain Assurance Criterion (FDAC is used to build the objective function, whose nonlinear response surface is constructed by the Kriging model. Then, the efficient global optimization (EGO algorithm is introduced to get the model updating results. The proposed method has good accuracy and robustness, which have been verified by a numerical simulation of a cantilever and experimental test data of a laboratory three-story structure.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maoyuan Feng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study proposes a mixed integer linear programming (MILP model to optimize the spillways scheduling for reservoir flood control. Unlike the conventional reservoir operation model, the proposed MILP model specifies the spillways status (including the number of spillways to be open and the degree of the spillway opened instead of reservoir release, since the release is actually controlled by using the spillway. The piecewise linear approximation is used to formulate the relationship between the reservoir storage and water release for a spillway, which should be open/closed with a status depicted by a binary variable. The control order and symmetry rules of spillways are described and incorporated into the constraints for meeting the practical demand. Thus, a MILP model is set up to minimize the maximum reservoir storage. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS and IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio (CPLEX software are used to find the optimal solution for the proposed MILP model. The China’s Three Gorges Reservoir, whose spillways are of five types with the total number of 80, is selected as the case study. It is shown that the proposed model decreases the flood risk compared with the conventional operation and makes the operation more practical by specifying the spillways status directly.
Updating the debate on model complexity
Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.
2012-01-01
As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”
Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Strachan, Ian B; Tremblay, Alain
2016-04-15
The thermal dynamics of human created northern reservoirs (e.g., water temperatures and ice cover dynamics) influence carbon processing and air-water gas exchange. Here, we developed a process-based one-dimensional model (Snow, Ice, WAater, and Sediment: SIWAS) to simulate a full year's surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for a moderately large (>500km(2)) boreal hydroelectric reservoir in northern Quebec, Canada. There is a lack of climate and weather data for most of the Canadian boreal so we designed SIWAS with a minimum of inputs and with a daily time step. The modeled surface energy fluxes were consistent with six years of observations from eddy covariance measurements taken in the middle of the reservoir. The simulated water temperature profiles agreed well with observations from over 100 sites across the reservoir. The model successfully captured the observed annual trend of ice cover timing, although the model overestimated the length of ice cover period (15days). Sensitivity analysis revealed that air temperature significantly affects the ice cover duration, water and sediment temperatures, but that dissolved organic carbon concentrations have little effect on the heat fluxes, and water and sediment temperatures. We conclude that the SIWAS model is capable of simulating surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for boreal reservoirs in regions where high temporal resolution climate data are not available. SIWAS is suitable for integration into biogeochemical models for simulating a reservoir's carbon cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A last updating evolution model for online social networks
Bu, Zhan; Xia, Zhengyou; Wang, Jiandong; Zhang, Chengcui
2013-05-01
As information technology has advanced, people are turning to electronic media more frequently for communication, and social relationships are increasingly found on online channels. However, there is very limited knowledge about the actual evolution of the online social networks. In this paper, we propose and study a novel evolution network model with the new concept of “last updating time”, which exists in many real-life online social networks. The last updating evolution network model can maintain the robustness of scale-free networks and can improve the network reliance against intentional attacks. What is more, we also found that it has the “small-world effect”, which is the inherent property of most social networks. Simulation experiment based on this model show that the results and the real-life data are consistent, which means that our model is valid.
The International Reference Ionosphere: Model Update 2016
Bilitza, Dieter; Altadill, David; Reinisch, Bodo; Galkin, Ivan; Shubin, Valentin; Truhlik, Vladimir
2016-04-01
The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is recognized as the official standard for the ionosphere (COSPAR, URSI, ISO) and is widely used for a multitude of different applications as evidenced by the many papers in science and engineering journals that acknowledge the use of IRI (e.g., about 11% of all Radio Science papers each year). One of the shortcomings of the model has been the dependence of the F2 peak height modeling on the propagation factor M(3000)F2. With the 2016 version of IRI, two new models will be introduced for hmF2 that were developed directly based on hmF2 measurements by ionosondes [Altadill et al., 2013] and by COSMIC radio occultation [Shubin, 2015], respectively. In addition IRI-2016 will include an improved representation of the ionosphere during the very low solar activities that were reached during the last solar minimum in 2008/2009. This presentation will review these and other improvements that are being implemented with the 2016 version of the IRI model. We will also discuss recent IRI workshops and their findings and results. One of the most exciting new projects is the development of the Real-Time IRI [Galkin et al., 2012]. We will discuss the current status and plans for the future. Altadill, D., S. Magdaleno, J.M. Torta, E. Blanch (2013), Global empirical models of the density peak height and of the equivalent scale height for quiet conditions, Advances in Space Research 52, 1756-1769, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.11.018. Galkin, I.A., B.W. Reinisch, X. Huang, and D. Bilitza (2012), Assimilation of GIRO Data into a Real-Time IRI, Radio Science, 47, RS0L07, doi:10.1029/2011RS004952. Shubin V.N. (2015), Global median model of the F2-layer peak height based on ionospheric radio-occultation and ground-based Digisonde observations, Advances in Space Research 56, 916-928, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.05.029.
An update of Leighton's solar dynamo model
Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.
2017-03-01
In 1969, Leighton developed a quasi-1D mathematical model of the solar dynamo, building upon the phenomenological scenario of Babcock published in 1961. Here we present a modification and extension of Leighton's model. Using the axisymmetric component (longitudinal average) of the magnetic field, we consider the radial field component at the solar surface and the radially integrated toroidal magnetic flux in the convection zone, both as functions of latitude. No assumptions are made with regard to the radial location of the toroidal flux. The model includes the effects of (I) turbulent diffusion at the surface and in the convection zone; (II) poleward meridional flow at the surface and an equatorward return flow affecting the toroidal flux; (III) latitudinal differential rotation and the near-surface layer of radial rotational shear; (iv) downward convective pumping of magnetic flux in the shear layer; and (v) flux emergence in the form of tilted bipolar magnetic regions treated as a source term for the radial surface field. While the parameters relevant for the transport of the surface field are taken from observations, the model condenses the unknown properties of magnetic field and flow in the convection zone into a few free parameters (turbulent diffusivity, effective return flow, amplitude of the source term, and a parameter describing the effective radial shear). Comparison with the results of 2D flux transport dynamo codes shows that the model captures the essential features of these simulations. We make use of the computational efficiency of the model to carry out an extended parameter study. We cover an extended domain of the 4D parameter space and identify the parameter ranges that provide solar-like solutions. Dipole parity is always preferred and solutions with periods around 22 yr and a correct phase difference between flux emergence in low latitudes and the strength of the polar fields are found for a return flow speed around 2 m s-1, turbulent
Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.
Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank
2018-02-01
Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Hydrogeochemistry and reservoir model of Fuzhou geothermal field, China
Huang, H. F.; Goff, Fraser
1986-03-01
Fuzhou geothermal field is a low- to intermediate-temperature geothermal system consisting of meteoric water that circulates deeply along faults. The area of the field is about 9 km 2 but it is elongated in a NNW-trending direction. Fluids in the field are controlled by a series of four NNW extensional faults in Cretaceous granitic basement (Fuzhou fault zone). These faults feed warm waters into overlying permeable Quaternary sediments. The hydrothermal system consists of north and south parts whose chemical compositions are subtly different. In the northern part the system discharges sulfate/chloride waters with relatively low chloride concentrations, but in the south the system discharges chloride waters having relatively high chloride concentrations. Maximum wellhead temperatures are 97°C, which agrees with the chalcedony geothermometer in many cases. Based on the solubility of quartz, the deep-reservoir temperature cannot exceed 123 to 131°C. From heat and mass balance calculations, we conclude that the present total extracted capacity of fluid from the reservoir (20,000 tons/day) could be doubled without noticeable drawdown. We estimate the recoverable heat in the reservoir to be about 1.71 × 10 11 MJ.
Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.
2017-12-01
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Doligez, B.; Eschard, R. [Institut Francais du Petrole, Rueil Malmaison (France); Geffroy, F. [Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau (France)] [and others
1997-08-01
The classical approach to construct reservoir models is to start with a fine scale geological model which is informed with petrophysical properties. Then scaling-up techniques allow to obtain a reservoir model which is compatible with the fluid flow simulators. Geostatistical modelling techniques are widely used to build the geological models before scaling-up. These methods provide equiprobable images of the area under investigation, which honor the well data, and which variability is the same than the variability computed from the data. At an appraisal phase, when few data are available, or when the wells are insufficient to describe all the heterogeneities and the behavior of the field, additional constraints are needed to obtain a more realistic geological model. For example, seismic data or stratigraphic models can provide average reservoir information with an excellent areal coverage, but with a poor vertical resolution. New advances in modelisation techniques allow now to integrate this type of additional external information in order to constrain the simulations. In particular, 2D or 3D seismic derived information grids, or sand-shale ratios maps coming from stratigraphic models can be used as external drifts to compute the geological image of the reservoir at the fine scale. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of these new tools, their impact on the final reservoir model, and their sensitivity to some key parameters.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Watney, W.L.
1994-12-01
Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestone result from complex interactions among paleotopography (deposition, concurrent structural deformation), sea level, and diagenesis. Analysis of reservoirs and surface and near-surface analogs has led to developing a {open_quotes}strandline grainstone model{close_quotes} in which relative sea-level stabilized during regressions, resulting in accumulation of multiple grainstone buildups along depositional strike. Resulting stratigraphy in these carbonate units are generally predictable correlating to inferred topographic elevation along the shelf. This model is a valuable predictive tool for (1) locating favorable reservoirs for exploration, and (2) anticipating internal properties of the reservoir for field development. Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestones are developed in both oolitic and bioclastic grainstones, however, re-analysis of oomoldic reservoirs provides the greatest opportunity for developing bypassed oil. A new technique, the {open_quotes}Super{close_quotes} Pickett crossplot (formation resistivity vs. porosity) and its use in an integrated petrophysical characterization, has been developed to evaluate extractable oil remaining in these reservoirs. The manual method in combination with 3-D visualization and modeling can help to target production limiting heterogeneities in these complex reservoirs and moreover compute critical parameters for the field such as bulk volume water. Application of this technique indicates that from 6-9 million barrels of Lansing-Kansas City oil remain behind pipe in the Victory-Northeast Lemon Fields. Petroleum geologists are challenged to quantify inferred processes to aid in developing rationale geologically consistent models of sedimentation so that acceptable levels of prediction can be obtained.
Stochastic reservoir simulation for the modeling of uncertainty in coal seam degasification
Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.
2015-01-01
Coal seam degasification improves coal mine safety by reducing the gas content of coal seams and also by generating added value as an energy source. Coal seam reservoir simulation is one of the most effective ways to help with these two main objectives. As in all modeling and simulation studies, how the reservoir is defined and whether observed productions can be predicted are important considerations.
Study on fine geological modelling of the fluvial sandstone reservoir in Daqing oilfield
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhoa Han-Qing [Daqing Research Institute, Helongjiang (China)
1997-08-01
These paper aims at developing a method for fine reservoir description in maturing oilfields by using close spaced well logging data. The main productive reservoirs in Daqing oilfield is a set of large fluvial-deltaic deposits in the Songliao Lake Basin, characterized by multi-layers and serious heterogeneities. Various fluvial channel sandstone reservoirs cover a fairly important proportion of reserves. After a long period of water flooding, most of them have turned into high water cut layers, but there are considerable residual reserves within them, which are difficult to find and tap. Making fine reservoir description and developing sound a geological model is essential for tapping residual oil and enhancing oil recovery. The principal reason for relative lower precision of predicting model developed by using geostatistics is incomplete recognition of complex distribution of fluvial reservoirs and their internal architecture`s. Tasking advantage of limited outcrop data from other regions (suppose no outcrop data available in oilfield) can only provide the knowledge of subtle changing of reservoir parameters and internal architecture. For the specific geometry distribution and internal architecture of subsurface reservoirs (such as in produced regions) can be gained only from continuous infilling logging well data available from studied areas. For developing a geological model, we think the first important thing is to characterize sandbodies geometries and their general architecture`s, which are the framework of models, and then the slight changing of interwell parameters and internal architecture`s, which are the contents and cells of the model. An excellent model should possess both of them, but the geometry is the key to model, because it controls the contents and cells distribution within a model.
Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karvonen, T.
2013-11-01
Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from
Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Karvonen, T. [WaterHope, Helsinki (Finland)
2013-11-15
Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gusfan Halik
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.
Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen
2015-04-01
Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating
Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.
2017-12-01
More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.
Seismic modeling of acid-gas injection in a deep saline reservoir
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ursenbach, C.P.; Lawton, D.C. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Geoscience, Consortium for Research in Elastic Wave Exploration Seismology
2008-07-01
Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) are common byproducts of the energy industry. As such, remediation studies are underway to determine the feasibility of sequestering these byproducts in subsurface reservoirs, including deep saline reservoirs. Acid gas injection at smaller gas wells holds promise. However, in order for such injection programs to work, the progress of the injection plume must be tracked. A modeling study of fluid substitution was carried out to gain insight into the ability of seismic monitoring to distinguish pre- and post-injection states of the reservoir medium. The purpose of this study was to carry out fluid substitution calculations for the modeling of an injection process. A methodology that may be applied or adapted to a variety of acid-gas injection scenarios was also developed. The general approach involved determining acoustic properties at reservoir temperature and pressure of relevant fluids; obtaining elastic properties of the reservoir rock for some reference saturated state, and the elastic properties of the mineral comprising it; and, determining the change in reservoir elastic properties due to fluid substitution via Gassmann's equation. Water, brine and non-aqueous acid gas were the 3 fluids of interest in this case. The feasibility of monitoring was judged by the sensitivity of travel times and reflection coefficients to fluid substitution. 4 refs., 2 figs.
Performance modeling of an integral, self-regulating cesium reservoir for the ATI-TFE
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thayer, K.L.; Ramalingam, M.L.; Young, T.J.
1993-01-01
This work covers the performance modeling of an integral metal-matrix cesium-graphite reservoir for operation in the Advanced Thermionic Initiative-Thermionic Fuel Element (ATI-TFE) converter configuration. The objectives of this task were to incorporate an intercalated cesium-graphite reservoir for the 3C 24 Cs→2C 36 Cs+Cs (g) two phase equilibrium reaction into the emitter lead region of the ATI-TFE. A semi two-dimensional, cylindrical TFE computer model was used to obtain thermal and electrical converter output characteristics for various reservoir locations. The results of this study are distributions for the interelectrode voltage, output current density, and output power density as a function of axial position along the TFE emitter. This analysis was accomplished by identifying an optimum cesium pressure for three representative pins in the ATI ''driverless'' reactor core and determining the corresponding position of the graphite reservoir in the ATI-TFE lead region. The position for placement of the graphite reservoir was determined by performing a first-order heat transfer analysis of the TFE lead region to determine its temperature distribution. The results of this analysis indicate that for the graphite reservoirs investigated the 3C 24 Cs→2C 36 Cs+Cs (g) equilibrium reaction reservoir is ideal for placement in the TFE emitter lead region. This reservoir can be directly coupled to the emitter, through conduction, to provide the desired cesium pressure for optimum performance. The cesium pressure corresponding to the optimum converter output performance was found to be 2.18 torr for the ATI core least power TFE, 2.92 torr for the average power TFE, and 4.93 torr for the maximum power TFE
Recent Updates to the System Advisor Model (SAM)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
DiOrio, Nicholas A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2018-02-14
The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a mature suite of techno-economic models for many renewable energy technologies that can be downloaded for free as a desktop application or software development kit. SAM is used for system-level modeling, including generating performance pro the release of the code as an open source project on GitHub. Other additions that will be covered include the ability to download data directly into SAM from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and up- dates to a user-interface macro that assists with PV system sizing. A brief update on SAM's battery model and its integration with the detailed photovoltaic model will also be discussed. Finally, an outline of planned work for the next year will be presented, including the addition of a bifacial model, support for multiple MPPT inputs for detailed inverter modeling, and the addition of a model for inverter thermal behavior.
Using outcrop data for geological well test modelling in fractured reservoirs
Aljuboori, F.; Corbett, P.; Bisdom, K.; Bertotti, G.; Geiger, S.
2015-01-01
Outcrop fracture data sets can now be acquired with ever more accuracy using drone technology augmented by field observations. These models can be used to form realistic, deterministic models of fractured reservoirs. Fractured well test models are traditionally seen to be finite or infinite
Modeling the Transport and Fate of Fecal Pollution and Nutrients of Miyun Reservoir
Liu, L.; Fu, X.; Wang, G.
2009-12-01
Miyun Reservoir, a mountain valley reservoir, is located 100 km northeast of Beijing City. Besides the functions of flood control, irrigation and fishery for Beijing area, Miyun Reservoir is the main drinking water storage for Beijing city. The water quality is therefore of great importance. Recently, the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients in the reservoir are constantly rising to arrest the attention of Beijing municipality. Fecal pollution from sewage is a significant public health concern due to the known presence of human viruses and parasites in these discharges. To investigate the transport and fate of the fecal pollution and nutrients at Miyun reservoir and the health risks associated with drinking and fishery, the reservoir and two tributaries, Chaohe river and Baihe river discharging into it are being examined for bacterial, nutrients and other routine pollution. To understand the relative importance of different processes influencing pollution transport and inactivation, a finite-element model of surf-zone hydrodynamics (coupled with models for temperature, fecal pollution, nutrients and other routine contaminants) is used. The developed models are being verified by the observed water quality data including water temperature, conductivities and dissolved oxygen from the reservoir and its tributaries. Different factors impacting the inactivation of fecal pollution and the transport of nutrients such as water temperature, sedimentation, sunlight insolation are evaluated for Miyun reservoir by a sensitivity analysis analogized from the previous research of Lake Michigan (figure 1, indicating that solar insolation dominates the inactivation of E. Coli, an indicator of fecal pollution, Liu et al. 2006). The calibrated modeling system can be used to temporally and spatially simulate and predict the variation of the concentration of fecal pollution and nutrients of Miyun reservoir. Therefore this research can provide a forecasting tool for the
A Step Forward to Closing the Loop between Static and Dynamic Reservoir Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cancelliere M.
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The current trend for history matching is to find multiple calibrated models instead of a single set of model parameters that match the historical data. The advantage of several current workflows involving assisted history matching techniques, particularly those based on heuristic optimizers or direct search, is that they lead to a number of calibrated models that partially address the problem of the non-uniqueness of the solutions. The importance of achieving multiple solutions is that calibrated models can be used for a true quantification of the uncertainty affecting the production forecasts, which represent the basis for technical and economic risk analysis. In this paper, the importance of incorporating the geological uncertainties in a reservoir study is demonstrated. A workflow, which includes the analysis of the uncertainty associated with the facies distribution for a fluvial depositional environment in the calibration of the numerical dynamic models and, consequently, in the production forecast, is presented. The first step in the workflow was to generate a set of facies realizations starting from different conceptual models. After facies modeling, the petrophysical properties were assigned to the simulation domains. Then, each facies realization was calibrated separately by varying permeability and porosity fields. Data assimilation techniques were used to calibrate the models in a reasonable span of time. Results showed that even the adoption of a conceptual model for facies distribution clearly representative of the reservoir internal geometry might not guarantee reliable results in terms of production forecast. Furthermore, results also showed that realizations which seem fully acceptable after calibration were not representative of the true reservoir internal configuration and provided wrong production forecasts; conversely, realizations which did not show a good fit of the production data could reliably predict the reservoir
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Ragab
2001-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the issue of "what reservoir storage capacity is required to maintain a yield with a given probability of failure?". It is an important issue in terms of construction and cost. HYDROMED offers a solution based on the modified Gould probability matrix method. This method has the advantage of sampling all years data without reference to the sequence and is therefore particularly suitable for catchments with patchy data. In the HYDROMED model, the probability of failure is calculated on a monthly basis. The model has been applied to the El-Gouazine catchment in Tunisia using a long rainfall record from Kairouan together with the estimated Hortonian runoff, class A pan evaporation data and estimated abstraction data. Generally, the probability of failure differed from winter to summer. Generally, the probability of failure approaches zero when the reservoir capacity is 500,000 m3. The 25% probability of failure (75% success is achieved with a reservoir capacity of 58,000 m3 in June and 95,000 m3 in January. The probability of failure for a 240,000 m3 capacity reservoir (closer to storage capacity of El-Gouazine 233,000 m3, is approximately 5% in November, December and January, 3% in March, and 1.1% in May and June. Consequently there is no high risk of El-Gouazine being unable to meet its requirements at a capacity of 233,000 m3. Subsequently the benefit, in terms of probability of failure, by increasing the reservoir volume of El-Gouazine to greater than the 250,000 m3 is not high. This is important for the design engineers and the funding organizations. However, the analysis is based on the existing water abstraction policy, absence of siltation rate data and on the assumption that the present climate will prevail during the lifetime of the reservoir. Should these conditions change, a new analysis should be carried out. Keywords: HYDROMED, reservoir, storage capacity, probability of failure, Mediterranean
An Analysis Model for Water Cone Subsidence in Bottom Water Drive Reservoirs
Wang, Jianjun; Xu, Hui; Wu, Shucheng; Yang, Chao; Kong, lingxiao; Zeng, Baoquan; Xu, Haixia; Qu, Tailai
2017-12-01
Water coning in bottom water drive reservoirs, which will result in earlier water breakthrough, rapid increase in water cut and low recovery level, has drawn tremendous attention in petroleum engineering field. As one simple and effective method to inhibit bottom water coning, shut-in coning control is usually preferred in oilfield to control the water cone and furthermore to enhance economic performance. However, most of the water coning researchers just have been done on investigation of the coning behavior as it grows up, the reported studies for water cone subsidence are very scarce. The goal of this work is to present an analytical model for water cone subsidence to analyze the subsidence of water cone when the well shut in. Based on Dupuit critical oil production rate formula, an analytical model is developed to estimate the initial water cone shape at the point of critical drawdown. Then, with the initial water cone shape equation, we propose an analysis model for water cone subsidence in bottom water reservoir reservoirs. Model analysis and several sensitivity studies are conducted. This work presents accurate and fast analytical model to perform the water cone subsidence in bottom water drive reservoirs. To consider the recent interests in development of bottom drive reservoirs, our approach provides a promising technique for better understanding the subsidence of water cone.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Elsharkawy, A.M.; Foda, S.G. [Kuwait University, Safat (Kuwait). Petroleum Engineering Dept.
1998-03-01
Currently, two approaches are being used to predict the changes in retrograde gas condensate composition and estimate the pressure depletion behavior of gas condensate reservoirs. The first approach uses the equation of states whereas the second uses empirical correlations. Equations of states (EOS) are poor predictive tools for complex hydrocarbon systems. The EOS needs adjustment against phase behavior data of reservoir fluid of known composition. The empirical correlation does not involve numerous numerical computations but their accuracy is limited. This study presents two general regression neural network (GRNN) models. The first model, GRNNM1, is developed to predict dew point pressure and gas compressibility at dew point using initial composition of numerous samples while the second model, GRNNM2, is developed to predict the changes in well stream effluent composition at any stages of pressure depletion. GRNNM2 can also be used to determine the initial reservoir fluid composition using dew point pressure, gas compressibility at dew point, and reservoir temperature. These models are based on analysis of 142 sample of laboratory studies of constant volume depletion (CVD) for gas condensate systems forming a total of 1082 depletion stages. The database represents a wide range of gas condensate systems obtained worldwide. The performance of the GRNN models has been compared to simulation results of the equation of state. The study shows that the proposed general regression neural network models are accurate, valid, and reliable. These models can be used to forecast CVD data needed for many reservoir engineering calculations in case laboratory data is unavailable. The GRNN models save computer time involved in EOS calculations. The study also show that once these models are properly trained they can be used to cut expenses of frequent sampling and laborious experimental CVD tests required for gas condensate reservoirs. 55 refs., 13 figs., 6 tabs.
Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.
2012-12-01
Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which
Use of black oil simulator for coal bed methane reservoir model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sonwa, R.; Enachescu, C.; Rohs, S. [Golder Associates GmbH, Celle (Germany)
2013-08-01
This paper starts from the work done by Seidle et al. (1990) and other authors on the topic of coal degasification and develops a more accurate representative naturally fractured CBM-reservoir by using a Discrete Fracture Network modeling approach. For this issue we firstly calibrate the reservoir simulator tNAVIGATOR by showing his ability to reproduce the work done by Seidle et al. and secondly generate a DFN model using FracMan in accordance with the distribution and orientation of the cleats. tNavigator was then used to simulate multiphase flow through the DFN- Model. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Teuku Ferijal
2015-05-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to model watershed area of Keliling Reservoir using SWAT model. The reservoir is located in Aceh Besar District, Province of Aceh. The model was setup using 90m x 90m digital elevation model, land use data extracted from remote sensing data and soil characteristic obtained from laboratory analysis on soil samples. Model was calibrated using observed daily reservoir volume and the model performance was analyzed using RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR, Nash-Sutcliffe efﬁciency (NSE and percent bias (PBIAS. The model delineated the study area into 3,448 Ha having 13 subwatersheds and 76 land units (HRUs. The watershed is mostly covered by forest (53% and grassland (31%. The analysis revealed the 10 most sensitive parameters i.e. GW_DELAY, CN2, REVAPMN, ALPHA_BF, SOL_AWC, GW_REVAP, GWQMN, CH_K2 and ESCO. Model performances were categorized into very good for monthly reservoir volume with ENS 0.95, RSR 0.23, and PBIAS 2.97. The model performance decreased when it used to analyze daily reservoir inﬂow with ENS 0.55, RSR 0.67, and PBIAS 3.46. Keywords: Keliling Reservoir, SWAT, Watershed ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk untuk memodelkan daerah tangkapan air Waduk Keliling dengan menggunakan Model SWAT. Waduk Keliling terletak di Kabupaten Aceh Besar, Propinsi Aceh. Dalam penelitian ini Model SWAT dikembangkan berdasarkan data digital elevasi model resolusi 90 m x90 m, tata guna lahan yang diperoleh dari intepretasi citra satelit dan data soil dari hasil analisa sampel tanah yang diperoleh di daerah penelitian. Model dikalibrasi dengan data volume waduk dan kinerja model dianalisa menggunakan parameter rasio akar rata-rata kuadrat error dan standard deviasi observasi (RSR, efesiensi Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE dan persentase bias (PBIAS. Hasil deleniasi untuk daerah penelitian menghasilkan suatu DAS dengan luas 3,448 Ha dan memiliki 13 Sub DAS yang dikelompokkan menjadi 76 unit lahan. Sebagian besar wilayah study
Saito, L.; Johnson, B.M.; Bartholow, J.; Hanna, R.B.
2001-01-01
We investigated the effects on the reservoir food web of a new temperature control device (TCD) on the dam at Shasta Lake, California. We followed a linked modeling approach that used a specialized reservoir water quality model to forecast operation-induced changes in phytoplankton production. A food web–energy transfer model was also applied to propagate predicted changes in phytoplankton up through the food web to the predators and sport fishes of interest. The food web–energy transfer model employed a 10% trophic transfer efficiency through a food web that was mapped using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis. Stable isotope analysis provided an efficient and comprehensive means of estimating the structure of the reservoir's food web with minimal sampling and background data. We used an optimization procedure to estimate the diet proportions of all food web components simultaneously from their isotopic signatures. Some consumers were estimated to be much more sensitive than others to perturbations to phytoplankton supply. The linked modeling approach demonstrated that interdisciplinary efforts enhance the value of information obtained from studies of managed ecosystems. The approach exploited the strengths of engineering and ecological modeling methods to address concerns that neither of the models could have addressed alone: (a) the water quality model could not have addressed quantitatively the possible impacts to fish, and (b) the food web model could not have examined how phytoplankton availability might change due to reservoir operations.
Model Hosting for continuous updating and transparent Water Resources Management
Jódar, Jorge; Almolda, Xavier; Batlle, Francisco; Carrera, Jesús
2013-04-01
Numerical models have become a standard tool for water resources management. They are required for water volume bookkeeping and help in decision making. Nevertheless, numerical models are complex and they can be used only by highly qualified technicians, which are often far from the decision makers. Moreover, they need to be maintained. That is, they require updating of their state, by assimilation of measurements, natural and anthropic actions (e.g., pumping and weather data), and model parameters. Worst, their very complexity implies that are they viewed as obscure and far, which hinders transparency and governance. We propose internet model hosting as an alternative to overcome these limitations. The basic idea is to keep the model hosted in the cloud. The model is updated as new data (measurements and external forcing) becomes available, which ensures continuous maintenance, with a minimal human cost (only required to address modelling problems). Internet access facilitates model use not only by modellers, but also by people responsible for data gathering and by water managers. As a result, the model becomes an institutional tool shared by water agencies to help them not only in decision making for sustainable management of water resources, but also in generating a common discussion platform. By promoting intra-agency sharing, the model becomes the common official position of the agency, which facilitates commitment in their adopted decisions regarding water management. Moreover, by facilitating access to stakeholders and the general public, the state of the aquifer and the impacts of alternative decisions become transparent. We have developed a tool (GAC, Global Aquifer Control) to address the above requirements. The application has been developed using Cloud Computing technologies, which facilitates the above operations. That is, GAC automatically updates the numerical models with the new available measurements, and then simulates numerous management options
Combined reservoir simulation and seismic technology, a new approach for modeling CHOPS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aghabarati, H.; Lines, L.; Settari, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada); Dumitrescu, C. [Sensor Geophysical Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)
2008-10-15
One of the primary recovery schemes for developing heavy oil reservoirs in Canada is cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS). With the introduction of progressive cavity pumps, CHOPS can be applied in unconsolidated or weakly consolidated formations. In order to better understand reservoir properties and recovery mechanism, this paper discussed the use of a combined reservoir simulation and seismic technology that were applied for a heavy oil reservoir situated in Saskatchewan, Canada. Using a seismic survey acquired in 1989, the study used geostatistical methods to estimate the initial reservoir porosity. Sand production was then modeled using an erosional velocity approach and the model was run based on oil production. The paper also compared the results of true porosity derived from simulation against the porosity estimated from a second seismic survey acquired in 2001. Last, the extent and the shape of the enhanced permeability region was modelled in order to estimate porosity distribution. It was concluded that the performance of the CHOPS wells depended greatly on the rate of creation of the high permeability zone around the wells. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs., 1 appendix.
Two updating methods for dissipative models with non symmetric matrices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billet, L.; Moine, P.; Aubry, D.
1997-01-01
In this paper the feasibility of the extension of two updating methods to rotating machinery models is considered, the particularity of rotating machinery models is to use non-symmetric stiffness and damping matrices. It is shown that the two methods described here, the inverse Eigen-sensitivity method and the error in constitutive relation method can be adapted to such models given some modification.As far as inverse sensitivity method is concerned, an error function based on the difference between right hand calculated and measured Eigen mode shapes and calculated and measured Eigen values is used. Concerning the error in constitutive relation method, the equation which defines the error has to be modified due to the non definite positiveness of the stiffness matrix. The advantage of this modification is that, in some cases, it is possible to focus the updating process on some specific model parameters. Both methods were validated on a simple test model consisting in a two-bearing and disc rotor system. (author)
Geological Model of Supercritical Geothermal Reservoir on the Top of the Magma Chamber
Tsuchiya, N.
2017-12-01
We are conducting supercritical geothermal project, and deep drilling project named as "JBBP: Japan Beyond Brittle Project" The temperatures of geothermal fields operating in Japan range from 200 to 300 °C (average 250 °C), and the depths range from 1000 to 2000 m (average 1500 m). In conventional geothermal reservoirs, the mechanical behavior of the rocks is presumed to be brittle, and convection of the hydrothermal fluid through existing network is the main method of circulation in the reservoir. In order to minimize induced seismicity, a rock mass that is "beyond brittle" is one possible candidate, because the rock mechanics of "beyond brittle" material is one of plastic deformation rather than brittle failure. To understand the geological model of a supercritical geothermal reservoir, granite-porphyry system, which had been formed in subduction zone, was investigated as a natural analog of the supercritical geothermal energy system. Quartz veins, hydrothermal breccia veins, and glassy veins are observed in a granitic body. The glassy veins formed at 500-550 °C under lithostatic pressures, and then pressures dropped drastically. The solubility of silica also dropped, resulting in formation of quartz veins under a hydrostatic pressure regime. Connections between the lithostatic and hydrostatic pressure regimes were key to the formation of the hydrothermal breccia veins, and the granite-porphyry system provides useful information for creation of fracture clouds in supercritical geothermal reservoirs. A granite-porphyry system, associated with hydrothermal activity and mineralization, provides a suitable natural analog for studying a deep-seated geothermal reservoir where stockwork fracture systems are created in the presence of supercritical geothermal fluids. I describe fracture networks and their formation mechanisms using petrology and fluid inclusion studies in order to understand this "beyond brittle" supercritical geothermal reservoir, and a geological
On-line Bayesian model updating for structural health monitoring
Rocchetta, Roberto; Broggi, Matteo; Huchet, Quentin; Patelli, Edoardo
2018-03-01
Fatigue induced cracks is a dangerous failure mechanism which affects mechanical components subject to alternating load cycles. System health monitoring should be adopted to identify cracks which can jeopardise the structure. Real-time damage detection may fail in the identification of the cracks due to different sources of uncertainty which have been poorly assessed or even fully neglected. In this paper, a novel efficient and robust procedure is used for the detection of cracks locations and lengths in mechanical components. A Bayesian model updating framework is employed, which allows accounting for relevant sources of uncertainty. The idea underpinning the approach is to identify the most probable crack consistent with the experimental measurements. To tackle the computational cost of the Bayesian approach an emulator is adopted for replacing the computationally costly Finite Element model. To improve the overall robustness of the procedure, different numerical likelihoods, measurement noises and imprecision in the value of model parameters are analysed and their effects quantified. The accuracy of the stochastic updating and the efficiency of the numerical procedure are discussed. An experimental aluminium frame and on a numerical model of a typical car suspension arm are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ochałek Agnieszka
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The significant part of the hydrography is bathymetry, which is the empirical part of it. Bathymetry is the study of underwater depth of waterways and reservoirs, and graphic presentation of measured data in form of bathymetric maps, cross-sections and three-dimensional bottom models. The bathymetric measurements are based on using Global Positioning System and devices for hydrographic measurements – an echo sounder and a side sonar scanner. In this research authors focused on introducing the case of obtaining and processing the bathymetrical data, building numerical bottom models of two post-mining reclaimed water reservoirs: Dwudniaki Lake in Wierzchosławice and flooded quarry in Zabierzów. The report includes also analysing data from still operating mining water reservoirs located in Poland to depict how bathymetry can be used in mining industry. The significant issue is an integration of bathymetrical data and geodetic data from tachymetry, terrestrial laser scanning measurements.
Ochałek, Agnieszka; Lipecki, Tomasz; Jaśkowski, Wojciech; Jabłoński, Mateusz
2018-03-01
The significant part of the hydrography is bathymetry, which is the empirical part of it. Bathymetry is the study of underwater depth of waterways and reservoirs, and graphic presentation of measured data in form of bathymetric maps, cross-sections and three-dimensional bottom models. The bathymetric measurements are based on using Global Positioning System and devices for hydrographic measurements - an echo sounder and a side sonar scanner. In this research authors focused on introducing the case of obtaining and processing the bathymetrical data, building numerical bottom models of two post-mining reclaimed water reservoirs: Dwudniaki Lake in Wierzchosławice and flooded quarry in Zabierzów. The report includes also analysing data from still operating mining water reservoirs located in Poland to depict how bathymetry can be used in mining industry. The significant issue is an integration of bathymetrical data and geodetic data from tachymetry, terrestrial laser scanning measurements.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fischer, K.; Henk, A. [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. fuer Angewandte Geowissenschaften
2013-08-01
The tectonic stress field strongly affects the optimal exploitation of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. Amongst others, wellbore stability, orientation of hydraulically induced fractures and - particularly in fractured reservoirs - permeability anisotropies depend on the magnitudes and orientations of the recent stresses. Geomechanical reservoir models can provide unique insights into the tectonic stress field revealing the local perturbations resulting from faults and lithological changes. In order to provide robust predictions, such numerical models are based on the finite element (FE) method and account for the complexities of real reservoirs with respect to subsurface geometry, inhomogeneous material distribution and nonlinear rock mechanical behavior. We present a refined workflow for geomechanical reservoir modeling which allows for an easier set-up of the model geometry, high resolution submodels and faster calculation times due to element savings in the load frame. Transferring the reservoir geometry from the geological subsurface model, e.g., a Petrel {sup registered} project, to the FE model represents a special challenge as the faults are discontinuities in the numerical model and no direct interface exists between the two software packages used. Point clouds displaying faults and lithostratigraphic horizons can be used for geometry transfer but this labor-intensive approach is not feasible for complex field-scale models with numerous faults. Instead, so-called Coon's patches based on horizon lines, i.e. the intersection lines between horizons and faults, are well suited to re-generate the various surfaces in the FE software while maintaining their topology. High-resolution submodels of individual fault blocks can be incorporated into the field-scale model. This allows to consider both a locally refined mechanical stratigraphy and the impact of the large-scale fault pattern. A pressure load on top of the model represents the
Forecasting monthly inflow discharge of the Iffezheim reservoir using data-driven models
Zhang, Qing; Aljoumani, Basem; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard
2017-04-01
River stream flow is an essential element in hydrology study fields, especially for reservoir management, since it defines input into reservoirs. Forecasting this stream flow plays an important role in short or long-term planning and management in the reservoir, e.g. optimized reservoir and hydroelectric operation or agricultural irrigation. Highly accurate flow forecasting can significantly reduce economic losses and is always pursued by reservoir operators. Therefore, hydrologic time series forecasting has received tremendous attention of researchers. Many models have been proposed to improve the hydrological forecasting. Due to the fact that most natural phenomena occurring in environmental systems appear to behave in random or probabilistic ways, different cases may need a different methods to forecast the inflow and even a unique treatment to improve the forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study is to determine an appropriate model for forecasting monthly inflow to the Iffezheim reservoir in Germany, which is the last of the barrages in the Upper Rhine. Monthly time series of discharges, measured from 1946 to 2001 at the Plittersdorf station, which is located 6 km downstream of the Iffezheim reservoir, were applied. The accuracies of the used stochastic models - Fiering model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) are compared with Artificial Intelligence (AI) models - single Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet ANN models (WANN). The Fiering model is a linear stochastic model and used for generating synthetic monthly data. The basic idea in modeling time series using ARIMA is to identify a simple model with as few model parameters as possible in order to provide a good statistical fit to the data. To identify and fit the ARIMA models, four phase approaches were used: identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. An automatic selection criterion, such as the Akaike information criterion, is utilized
Advanced Gas Hydrate Reservoir Modeling Using Rock Physics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McConnell, Daniel
2017-12-30
Prospecting for high saturation gas hydrate deposits can be greatly aided with improved approaches to seismic interpretation and especially if sets of seismic attributes can be shown as diagnostic or direct hydrocarbon indicators for high saturation gas hydrates in sands that would be of most interest for gas hydrate production.
A large 3D seismic data set in the deep water Eastern Gulf of Mexico was screened for gas hydrates using a set of techniques and seismic signatures that were developed and proven in the Central deepwater Gulf of Mexico in the DOE Gulf of Mexico Joint Industry Project JIP Leg II in 2009 and recently confirmed with coring in 2017.
A large gas hydrate deposit is interpreted in the data where gas has migrated from one of the few deep seated faults plumbing the Jurassic hydrocarbon source into the gas hydrate stability zone. The gas hydrate deposit lies within a flat-lying within Pliocene Mississippi Fan channel that was deposited outboard in a deep abyssal environment. The uniform architecture of the channel aided the evaluation of a set of seismic attributes that relate to attenuation and thin-bed energy that could be diagnostic of gas hydrates. Frequency attributes derived from spectral decomposition also proved to be direct hydrocarbon indicators by pseudo-thickness that could be only be reconciled by substituting gas hydrate in the pore space. The study emphasizes that gas hydrate exploration and reservoir characterization benefits from a seismic thin bed approach.
Modeling of Single and Dual Reservoir Porous Media Compressed Gas (Air and CO2) Storage Systems
Oldenburg, C. M.; Liu, H.; Borgia, A.; Pan, L.
2017-12-01
Intermittent renewable energy sources are causing increasing demand for energy storage. The deep subsurface offers promising opportunities for energy storage because it can safely contain high-pressure gases. Porous media compressed air energy storage (PM-CAES) is one approach, although the only facilities in operation are in caverns (C-CAES) rather than porous media. Just like in C-CAES, PM-CAES operates generally by injecting working gas (air) through well(s) into the reservoir compressing the cushion gas (existing air in the reservoir). During energy recovery, high-pressure air from the reservoir is mixed with fuel in a combustion turbine to produce electricity, thereby reducing compression costs. Unlike in C-CAES, the storage of energy in PM-CAES occurs variably across pressure gradients in the formation, while the solid grains of the matrix can release/store heat. Because air is the working gas, PM-CAES has fairly low thermal efficiency and low energy storage density. To improve the energy storage density, we have conceived and modeled a closed-loop two-reservoir compressed CO2 energy storage system. One reservoir is the low-pressure reservoir, and the other is the high-pressure reservoir. CO2 is cycled back and forth between reservoirs depending on whether energy needs to be stored or recovered. We have carried out thermodynamic and parametric analyses of the performance of an idealized two-reservoir CO2 energy storage system under supercritical and transcritical conditions for CO2 using a steady-state model. Results show that the transcritical compressed CO2 energy storage system has higher round-trip efficiency and exergy efficiency, and larger energy storage density than the supercritical compressed CO2 energy storage. However, the configuration of supercritical compressed CO2 energy storage is simpler, and the energy storage densities of the two systems are both higher than that of PM-CAES, which is advantageous in terms of storage volume for a given
River Stream-Flow and Zayanderoud Reservoir Operation Modeling Using the Fuzzy Inference System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saeed Jamali
2007-12-01
Full Text Available The Zayanderoud basin is located in the central plateau of Iran. As a result of population increase and agricultural and industrial developments, water demand on this basin has increased extensively. Given the importance of reservoir operation in water resource and management studies, the performance of fuzzy inference system (FIS for Zayanderoud reservoir operation is investigated in this paper. The model of operation consists of two parts. In the first part, the seasonal river stream-flow is forecasted using the fuzzy rule-based system. The southern oscillated index, rain, snow, and discharge are inputs of the model and the seasonal river stream-flow its output. In the second part, the operation model is constructed. The amount of releases is first optimized by a nonlinear optimization model and then the rule curves are extracted using the fuzzy inference system. This model operates on an "if-then" principle, where the "if" is a vector of fuzzy permits and "then" is the fuzzy result. The reservoir storage capacity, inflow, demand, and year condition factor are used as permits. Monthly release is taken as the consequence. The Zayanderoud basin is investigated as a case study. Different performance indices such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability are calculated. According to results, FIS works more effectively than the traditional reservoir operation methods such as standard operation policy (SOP or linear regression.
A simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir model of chemical evolution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caimmi R.
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Simple closed-box (CB models of chemical evolution are extended on two respects, namely (i simple closed-(box+reservoir (CBR models allowing gas outflow from the box into the reservoir (Hartwick 1976 or gas inflow into the box from the reservoir (Caimmi 2007 with rate proportional to the star formation rate, and (ii simple multistage closed-(box+reservoir (MCBR models allowing different stages of evolution characterized by different inflow or outflow rates. The theoretical differential oxygen abundance distribution (TDOD predicted by the model maintains close to a continuous broken straight line. An application is made where a fictitious sample is built up from two distinct samples of halo stars and taken as representative of the inner Galactic halo. The related empirical differential oxygen abundance distribution (EDOD is represented, to an acceptable extent, as a continuous broken line for two viable [O/H]-[Fe/H] empirical relations. The slopes and the intercepts of the regression lines are determined, and then used as input parameters to MCBR models. Within the errors (-+σ, regression line slopes correspond to a large inflow during the earlier stage of evolution and to low or moderate outflow during the subsequent stages. A possible inner halo - outer (metal-poor bulge connection is also briefly discussed. Quantitative results cannot be considered for applications to the inner Galactic halo, unless selection effects and disk contamination are removed from halo samples, and discrepancies between different oxygen abundance determination methods are explained.
Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling-chain
Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B.
2014-09-01
According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two muti-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow condition. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.
Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain
Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B. J.
2015-03-01
According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two multi-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking water, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow conditions. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.
Homayounfar, Mehran; Zomorodian, Mehdi; Martinez, Christopher J; Lai, Sai Hin
2015-01-01
So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i) having a discrete nature; and (ii) working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance) of the state variable (water level in the reservoir) is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in water allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehran Homayounfar
Full Text Available So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i having a discrete nature; and (ii working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance of the state variable (water level in the reservoir is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP, and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG. By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in
Taherdangkoo, Reza; Tatomir, Alexandru; Sauter, Martin
2017-04-01
Hydraulic fracturing operation in shale gas reservoir has gained growing interest over the last few years. Groundwater contamination is one of the most important environmental concerns that have emerged surrounding shale gas development (Reagan et al., 2015). The potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing could be studied through the possible pathways for subsurface migration of contaminants towards overlying aquifers (Kissinger et al., 2013; Myers, 2012). The intent of this study is to investigate, by means of numerical simulation, two failure scenarios which are based on the presence of a fault zone that penetrates the full thickness of overburden and connect shale gas reservoir to aquifer. Scenario 1 addresses the potential transport of fracturing fluid from the shale into the subsurface. This scenario was modeled with COMSOL Multiphysics software. Scenario 2 deals with the leakage of methane from the reservoir into the overburden. The numerical modeling of this scenario was implemented in DuMux (free and open-source software), discrete fracture model (DFM) simulator (Tatomir, 2012). The modeling results are used to evaluate the influence of several important parameters (reservoir pressure, aquifer-reservoir separation thickness, fault zone inclination, porosity, permeability, etc.) that could affect the fluid transport through the fault zone. Furthermore, we determined the main transport mechanisms and circumstances in which would allow frack fluid or methane migrate through the fault zone into geological layers. The results show that presence of a conductive fault could reduce the contaminant travel time and a significant contaminant leakage, under certain hydraulic conditions, is most likely to occur. Bibliography Kissinger, A., Helmig, R., Ebigbo, A., Class, H., Lange, T., Sauter, M., Heitfeld, M., Klünker, J., Jahnke, W., 2013. Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system, part 2. Environ Earth Sci 70, 3855
Integrated Reflection Seismic Monitoring and Reservoir Modeling for Geologic CO2 Sequestration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
John Rogers
2011-12-31
The US DOE/NETL CCS MVA program funded a project with Fusion Petroleum Technologies Inc. (now SIGMA) to model the proof of concept of using sparse seismic data in the monitoring of CO{sub 2} injected into saline aquifers. The goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate an active source reflection seismic imaging strategy based on deployment of spatially sparse surface seismic arrays. The primary objective was to test the feasibility of sparse seismic array systems to monitor the CO{sub 2} plume migration injected into deep saline aquifers. The USDOE/RMOTC Teapot Dome (Wyoming) 3D seismic and reservoir data targeting the Crow Mountain formation was used as a realistic proxy to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Though the RMOTC field has been well studied, the Crow Mountain as a saline aquifer has not been studied previously as a CO{sub 2} sequestration (storage) candidate reservoir. A full reprocessing of the seismic data from field tapes that included prestack time migration (PSTM) followed by prestack depth migration (PSDM) was performed. A baseline reservoir model was generated from the new imaging results that characterized the faults and horizon surfaces of the Crow Mountain reservoir. The 3D interpretation was integrated with the petrophysical data from available wells and incorporated into a geocellular model. The reservoir structure used in the geocellular model was developed using advanced inversion technologies including Fusion's ThinMAN{trademark} broadband spectral inversion. Seal failure risk was assessed using Fusion's proprietary GEOPRESS{trademark} pore pressure and fracture pressure prediction technology. CO{sub 2} injection was simulated into the Crow Mountain with a commercial reservoir simulator. Approximately 1.2MM tons of CO{sub 2} was simulated to be injected into the Crow Mountain reservoir over 30 years and subsequently let 'soak' in the reservoir for 970 years. The relatively small plume
Finite element model updating in structural dynamics using design sensitivity and optimisation
Calvi, Adriano
1998-01-01
Model updating is an important issue in engineering. In fact a well-correlated model provides for accurate evaluation of the structure loads and responses. The main objectives of the study were to exploit available optimisation programs to create an error localisation and updating procedure of nite element models that minimises the "error" between experimental and analytical modal data, addressing in particular the updating of large scale nite element models with se...
modelling for optimal number of line storage reservoirs in a water
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
RESERVOIRS IN A WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM. By. B.U. Anyata. Department ... water distribution systems, in order to balance the ... distribution line storage systems to meet peak demands at .... Evaluation Method. The criteria ... Pipe + Energy Cost (N). 191, 772 ... Economic Planning Model for Distributed information ...
van Wees, Jan-Diederik; Osinga, Sander; Van Thienen-Visser, Karin; Fokker, Peter A.
2018-03-01
The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands experienced an immediate reduction in seismic events in the year following a massive cut in production. This reduction is inconsistent with existing models of seismicity predictions adopting compaction strains as proxy, since reservoir creep would then result in a more gradual reduction of seismic events after a production stop. We argue that the discontinuity in seismic response relates to a physical discontinuity in stress loading rate on faults upon the arrest of pressure change. The stresses originate from a combination of the direct poroelastic effect through the pressure changes and the delayed effect of ongoing compaction after cessation of reservoir production. Both mechanisms need to be taken into account. To this end, we employed finite-element models in a workflow that couples Kelvin-Chain reservoir creep with a semi-analytical approach for the solution of slip and seismic moment from the predicted stress change. For ratios of final creep and elastic compaction up to 5, the model predicts that the cumulative seismic moment evolution after a production stop is subject to a very moderate increase, 2-10 times less than the values predicted by the alternative approaches using reservoir compaction strain as proxy. This is in agreement with the low seismicity in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after reduction in production. The geomechanical model findings support scope for mitigating induced seismicity through adjusting rates of pressure change by cutting down production.
Study on detailed geological modelling for fluvial sandstone reservoir in Daqing oil field
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhao Hanqing; Fu Zhiguo; Lu Xiaoguang [Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Daqing (China)
1997-08-01
Guided by the sedimentation theory and knowledge of modern and ancient fluvial deposition and utilizing the abundant information of sedimentary series, microfacies type and petrophysical parameters from well logging curves of close spaced thousands of wells located in a large area. A new method for establishing detailed sedimentation and permeability distribution models for fluvial reservoirs have been developed successfully. This study aimed at the geometry and internal architecture of sandbodies, in accordance to their hierarchical levels of heterogeneity and building up sedimentation and permeability distribution models of fluvial reservoirs, describing the reservoir heterogeneity on the light of the river sedimentary rules. The results and methods obtained in outcrop and modem sedimentation studies have successfully supported the study. Taking advantage of this method, the major producing layers (PI{sub 1-2}), which have been considered as heterogeneous and thick fluvial reservoirs extending widely in lateral are researched in detail. These layers are subdivided into single sedimentary units vertically and the microfacies are identified horizontally. Furthermore, a complex system is recognized according to their hierarchical levels from large to small, meander belt, single channel sandbody, meander scroll, point bar, and lateral accretion bodies of point bar. The achieved results improved the description of areal distribution of point bar sandbodies, provide an accurate and detailed framework model for establishing high resolution predicting model. By using geostatistic technique, it also plays an important role in searching for enriched zone of residual oil distribution.
Hydrogeological structure model of the Olkiluoto Site. Update in 2010
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaittinen, T.; Ahokas, H.; Nummela, J.; Paulamaeki, S.
2011-09-01
As part of the programme for the final disposal of spent nuclear fuel, a hydrogeological structure model containing the hydraulically significant zones on Olkiluoto Island has been compiled. The structure model describes the deterministic site scale zones that dominate the groundwater flow. The main objective of the study is to provide the geometry and the hydrogeological properties related to the groundwater flow for the zones and the sparsely fractured bedrock to be used in the numerical modelling of groundwater flow and geochemical transport and thereby in the safety assessment. Also, these zones should be taken into account in the repository layout and in the construction of the disposal facility and they have a long-term impact on the evolution of the site and the safety of the disposal repository. The previous hydrogeological model was compiled in 2008 and this updated version is based on data available at the end of May 2010. The updating was based on new hydrogeological observations and a systematic approach covering all drillholes to assess measured fracture transmissivities typical of the site-scale hydrogeological zones. New data consisted of head observations and interpreted pressure and flow responses caused by field activities. Essential background data for the modelling included the ductile deformation model and the site scale brittle deformation zones modelled in the geological model version 2.0. The GSM combine both geological and geophysical investigation data on the site. As a result of the modelling campaign, hydrogeological zones HZ001, HZ008, HZ19A, HZ19B, HZ19C, HZ20A, HZ20B, HZ21, HZ21B, HZ039, HZ099, OL-BFZ100, and HZ146 were included in the structure model. Compared with the previous model, zone HZ004 was replaced with zone HZ146 and zone HZ039 was introduced for the first time. Alternative zone HZ21B was included in the basic model. For the modelled zones, both the zone intersections, describing the fractures with dominating groundwater
Raso , L.; Malaterre , P.O.; Bader , J.C.
2017-01-01
International audience; This article presents an innovative streamflow process model for use in reservoir operational rule design in stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP). Model features, which can be applied independently, are (1) a multiplicative process model for the forward phase and its linearized version for the backward phase; and (2) a nonuniform time-step length that is inversely proportional to seasonal variability. The advantages are (1) guaranteeing positive streamflow values...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fu, Y; Xu, O; Yang, W; Zhou, L; Wang, J
2017-01-01
To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately. (paper)
Di Maggio, Jimena; Fernández, Carolina; Parodi, Elisa R; Diaz, M Soledad; Estrada, Vanina
2016-01-01
In this paper we address the formulation of two mechanistic water quality models that differ in the way the phytoplankton community is described. We carry out parameter estimation subject to differential-algebraic constraints and validation for each model and comparison between models performance. The first approach aggregates phytoplankton species based on their phylogenetic characteristics (Taxonomic group model) and the second one, on their morpho-functional properties following Reynolds' classification (Functional group model). The latter approach takes into account tolerance and sensitivity to environmental conditions. The constrained parameter estimation problems are formulated within an equation oriented framework, with a maximum likelihood objective function. The study site is Paso de las Piedras Reservoir (Argentina), which supplies water for consumption for 450,000 population. Numerical results show that phytoplankton morpho-functional groups more closely represent each species growth requirements within the group. Each model performance is quantitatively assessed by three diagnostic measures. Parameter estimation results for seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton community and main biogeochemical variables for a one-year time horizon are presented and compared for both models, showing the functional group model enhanced performance. Finally, we explore increasing nutrient loading scenarios and predict their effect on phytoplankton dynamics throughout a one-year time horizon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A new approach to integrate seismic and production data in reservoir models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ouenes, A.; Chawathe, A.; Weiss, W. [New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM (United States)] [and others
1997-08-01
A great deal of effort is devoted to reducing the uncertainties in reservoir modeling. For example, seismic properties are used to improve the characterization of interwell properties by providing porosity maps constrained to seismic impedance. Another means to reduce uncertainties is to constrain the reservoir model to production data. This paper describes a new approach where the production and seismic data are simultaneously used to reduce the uncertainties. In this new approach, the primary geologic parameter that controls reservoir properties is identified. Next, the geophysical parameter that is sensitive to the dominant geologic parameter is determined. Then the geology and geophysics are linked using analytic correlations. Unfortunately, the initial guess resulted in a reservoir model that did not match the production history. Since the time required for trial and error matching of production history is exorbitant, an automatic history matching method based on a fast optimization method was used to find the correlating parameters. This new approach was illustrated with an actual field in the Williston Basin. Upscalling problems do not arise since the scale is imposed by the size of the seismic bin (66m, 219 ft) which is the size of the simulator gridblocks.
Productivity Analysis of Volume Fractured Vertical Well Model in Tight Oil Reservoirs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiahang Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a semianalytical model to simulate the productivity of a volume fractured vertical well in tight oil reservoirs. In the proposed model, the reservoir is a composite system which contains two regions. The inner region is described as formation with finite conductivity hydraulic fracture network and the flow in fracture is assumed to be linear, while the outer region is simulated by the classical Warren-Root model where radial flow is applied. The transient rate is calculated, and flow patterns and characteristic flowing periods caused by volume fractured vertical well are analyzed. Combining the calculated results with actual production data at the decline stage shows a good fitting performance. Finally, the effects of some sensitive parameters on the type curves are also analyzed extensively. The results demonstrate that the effect of fracture length is more obvious than that of fracture conductivity on improving production in tight oil reservoirs. When the length and conductivity of main fracture are constant, the contribution of stimulated reservoir volume (SRV to the cumulative oil production is not obvious. When the SRV is constant, the length of fracture should also be increased so as to improve the fracture penetration and well production.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yin Yanshu
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a location-based multiple point statistics method is developed to model a non-stationary reservoir. The proposed method characterizes the relationship between the sedimentary pattern and the deposit location using the relative central position distance function, which alleviates the requirement that the training image and the simulated grids have the same dimension. The weights in every direction of the distance function can be changed to characterize the reservoir heterogeneity in various directions. The local integral replacements of data events, structured random path, distance tolerance and multi-grid strategy are applied to reproduce the sedimentary patterns and obtain a more realistic result. This method is compared with the traditional Snesim method using a synthesized 3-D training image of Poyang Lake and a reservoir model of Shengli Oilfield in China. The results indicate that the new method can reproduce the non-stationary characteristics better than the traditional method and is more suitable for simulation of delta-front deposits. These results show that the new method is a powerful tool for modelling a reservoir with non-stationary characteristics.
Detailed geologic modeling of a turbidity reservoir interval at the Mars discovery
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahaffie, M.J.; Chapin, M.A. [Shell Exploration and Production Technology Co. (United States); Henry, W.A. [Shell Offshore, Inc. (United States)
1995-12-31
Detailed reservoir architecture studies using high resolution seismic data coupled with geologic and seismic inversion modeling have been used to evaluate a major hydrocarbon bearing turbidite reservoir found within Prospect Mars. Early interpretations of this interval, based on lower frequency (40 Hz) seismic data, indicated the presence of a single, laterally continuous event covering an area nearly 3 miles square ({approx} 5200 acres). Correlations from well control supported the notion that this seismic event comprised a series of continuous sheet sands exhibiting a high degree of lateral continuity and connectivity. However pressure data taken during fluid sampling of the reservoir suggested the possibility of discontinuities not observed within the resolution of the seismic data. Seismic reprocessing enhancements to increase frequency content revealed the presence of multiple stratigraphic features not previously recognized. Detailed seismic mapping using loop-level seismic attributes and seismic inversion studies constrained by geologic models provide a more realistic depiction of the environment of deposition and improve reservoir simulation modeling for this stratigraphic interval. (author). 3 figs
Simulating cold production by a coupled reservoir-geomechanics model with sand erosion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Y.; Xue, S. [Petro-Geotech Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)
2002-06-01
This paper presents a newly developed fully coupled reservoir-geomechanics model with sand erosion. Sand production occurs during aggressive production induced by the impact of viscous fluid flow and the in situ stress concentration near a wellbore, as well as by perforation tips in poorly consolidated formations. This compromises oil production, increases well completion costs, and reduces the life cycles of equipment down hole and on the surface. The proposed model can be used for sand production studies in conventional oil/gas reservoirs such as the North Sea as well as in heavy oil reservoirs such as in northwestern Canada. Instead of generating a high permeability network in reservoirs, the enhanced oil production is determined by the increase in the effective wellbore radius. This paper presents the general model. A detailed study on the capillary pressure and the impact of multiphase flow on sanding and erosion will be conducted at a later date. It appears that 2 phase flow can be important to elastoplasticity if no significant sand erosion has occurred. It was determined that high porosity is induced by erosion and capillary pressure. Two phase flow can be important when the built-up drag force carries sand-fluid slurry into the well. It is concluded that viscosity and flow velocity can help estimate the slurry transport, sand rate and enhanced oil production. 22 refs., 3 tabs., 11 figs.
A novel methodology improves reservoir characterization models using geologic fuzzy variables
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soto B, Rodolfo [DIGITOIL, Maracaibo (Venezuela); Soto O, David A. [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)
2004-07-01
One of the research projects carried out in Cusiana field to explain its rapid decline during the last years was to get better permeability models. The reservoir of this field has a complex layered system that it is not easy to model using conventional methods. The new technique included the development of porosity and permeability maps from cored wells following the same trend of the sand depositions for each facie or layer according to the sedimentary facie and the depositional system models. Then, we used fuzzy logic to reproduce those maps in three dimensions as geologic fuzzy variables. After multivariate statistical and factor analyses, we found independence and a good correlation coefficient between the geologic fuzzy variables and core permeability and porosity. This means, the geologic fuzzy variable could explain the fabric, the grain size and the pore geometry of the reservoir rock trough the field. Finally, we developed a neural network permeability model using porosity, gamma ray and the geologic fuzzy variable as input variables. This model has a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.873 and average absolute error of 33% compared with the actual model with a correlation coefficient of 0.511 and absolute error greater than 250%. We tested different methodologies, but this new one showed dramatically be a promiser way to get better permeability models. The use of the models have had a high impact in the explanation of well performance and workovers, and reservoir simulation models. (author)
Body Dysmorphic Disorder: Neurobiological Features and an Updated Model
Li, Wei; Arienzo, Donatello; Feusner, Jamie D.
2013-01-01
Body Dysmorphic Disorder (BDD) affects approximately 2% of the population and involves misperceived defects of appearance along with obsessive preoccupation and compulsive behaviors. There is evidence of neurobiological abnormalities associated with symptoms in BDD, although research to date is still limited. This review covers the latest neuropsychological, genetic, neurochemical, psychophysical, and neuroimaging studies and synthesizes these findings into an updated (yet still preliminary) neurobiological model of the pathophysiology of BDD. We propose a model in which visual perceptual abnormalities, along with frontostriatal and limbic system dysfunction, may combine to contribute to the symptoms of impaired insight and obsessive thoughts and compulsive behaviors expressed in BDD. Further research is necessary to gain a greater understanding of the etiological formation of BDD symptoms and their evolution over time. PMID:25419211
River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998
Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.
2001-01-01
The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake
Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system
MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.
2009-01-01
Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
La Pointe, Paul R.; Hermanson, Jan
2002-09-09
The goal of this project is to improve the recovery of oil from the Circle Ridge Oilfield, located on the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming, through an innovative integration of matrix characterization, structural reconstruction, and the characterization of the fracturing in the reservoir through the use of discrete fracture network models.
Modeling of Salinity Effects on Waterflooding of Petroleum Reservoirs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alexeev, Artem
films on the surface of the rock. Oil ganglia are mobilized and carried by the slow flow of wetting films. Considering simplistic pore-network model, we derive the macroscopic system of equations involving description of the transport of oil ganglia. As a result of numerical modeling of the tertiary...... is produced after the active species reaches the effluent. Further extension of the model is achieved by introduction of the non-equilibrium alteration of wettability and non-instantaneous oil mobilization. Such modifications may explain the delay observed in some experiments, where mobilized oil is produced...
Development of a cerebrospinal fluid lateral reservoir model in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta).
Lester McCully, Cynthia M; Bacher, John; MacAllister, Rhonda P; Steffen-Smith, Emilie A; Saleem, Kadharbatcha; Thomas, Marvin L; Cruz, Rafael; Warren, Katherine E
2015-02-01
Rapid, serial, and humane collection of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in nonhuman primates (NHP) is an essential element of numerous research studies and is currently accomplished via two different models. The CSF reservoir model (FR) combines a catheter in the 4th ventricle with a flexible silastic reservoir to permit circulating CSF flow. The CSF lateral port model (LP) consists of a lateral ventricular catheter and an IV port that provides static access to CSF and volume restrictions on sample collection. The FR model is associated with an intensive, prolonged recovery and frequent postsurgical hydrocephalus and nonpatency, whereas the LP model is associated with an easier recovery. To maximize the advantages of both systems, we developed the CSF lateral reservoir model (LR), which combines the beneficial features of the 2 previous models but avoids their limitations by using a reservoir for circulating CSF flow combined with catheter placement in the lateral ventricle. Nine adult male rhesus monkeys were utilized in this study. Pre-surgical MRI was performed to determine the coordinates of the lateral ventricle and location of choroid plexus (CP). The coordinates were determined to avoid the CP and major blood vessels. The predetermined coordinates were 100% accurate, according to MRI validation. The LR system functioned successfully in 67% of cases for 221 d, and 44% remain functional at 426 to 510 d postoperatively. Compared with established models, our LR model markedly reduced postoperative complications and recovery time. Development of the LR model was successful in rhesus macaques and is a useful alternative to the FR and LP methods of CSF collection from nonhuman primates.
"Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic ...
We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observations. This has resulted in improvements in model evaluations of modeled isoprene, NOx, and O3. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.
Fast Multiscale Reservoir Simulations using POD-DEIM Model Reduction
Ghasemi, Mohammadreza; Yang, Yanfang; Gildin, Eduardo; Efendiev, Yalchin R.; Calo, Victor M.
2015-01-01
snapshots are inexpensively computed using local model reduction techniques based on Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) which provides (1) a hierarchical approximation of snapshot vectors (2) adaptive computations by using coarse grids (3
modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Osondu
the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... water, like wind and sun, is a renewable resource.
modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Osondu
the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... through turbines and electric generator system.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yose, L.A.
2004-01-01
A case study of the Norman Wells field will be presented to highlight the work-flow and data integration steps associated with characterization and modeling of a complex hydrocarbon reservoir. Norman Wells is a Devonian-age carbonate bank ('reef') located in the Northwest Territories of Canada, 60 kilometers south of the Arctic Circle. The reservoir reaches a maximum thickness of 130 meters in the reef interior and thins toward the basin due to depositional pinch outs. Norman Wells is an oil reservoir and is currently under a 5-spot water injection scheme for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). EOR strategies require a detailed understanding of how reservoir flow units, flow barriers and flow baffles are distributed to optimize hydrocarbon sweep and recovery and to minimize water handling. Reservoir models are routinely used by industry to characterize the 3-D distribution of reservoir architecture (stratigraphic layers, depositional facies, faults) and rock properties (porosity. permeability). Reservoir models are validated by matching historical performance data (e.g., reservoir pressures, well production or injection rates). Geologic models are adjusted until they produce a history match, and model adjustments are focused on inputs that have the greatest geologic uncertainty. Flow simulation models are then used to optimize field development strategies and to forecast field performance under different development scenarios. (author)
Orren, L. H.; Ziman, G. M.; Jones, S. C.
1981-01-01
A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.
Hedging Rules for Water Supply Reservoir Based on the Model of Simulation and Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Ji
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This study proposes a hedging rule model which is composed of a two-period reservior operation model considering the damage depth and hedging rule parameter optimization model. The former solves hedging rules based on a given poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target, while the latter optimization model is used to optimize the weighting factor and carryover storage target based on the hedging rules. The coupling model gives the optimal poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target to guide release. The conclusions achieved from this study as follows: (1 the water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target have a direct impact on the three elements of the hedging rule; (2 parameters can guide reservoirs to supply water reasonably after optimization of the simulation and optimization model; and (3 in order to verify the utility of the hedging rule, the Heiquan reservoir is used as a case study and particle swarm optimization algorithm with a simulation model is adopted for optimizing the parameter. The results show that the proposed hedging rule can improve the operation performances of the water supply reservoir.
Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model
Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.
2009-10-01
Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.
Experimental and numerical modeling of sulfur plugging in a carbonate oil reservoir
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Al-Awadhy, F. [ADMA-OPCO, Abudhabi (United Arab Emirates); Kocabas, I.; Abou-Kassem, J.H. [UAE University, Al Ain (United Arab Emirates); Islam, M.R. [Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS (United States)
2005-01-15
Many oil and gas reservoirs in the United Arab Emirates produce large amounts of sour gas, mainly in the form of hydrogen sulfide. In addition to creating problems in the production line, wellbore damage is often reported due to the precipitation of elemental sulfur in the vicinity of the wellbore. While there have been several studies performed on the role of solid deposition in a gas reservoir, the role of sulfur deposition in oil reservoirs has not been investigated. This article presents experimental results along with a comprehensive wellbore model that predicts sulfur precipitation as well as plugging. The experiments were conducted in a core (linear) system. Both analytical and numerical modelings were performed in a linear coordinate system. Data for the numerical model was obtained from both test tube and coreflood experiments. By using a phenomenological model, the wellbore plugging was modeled with an excellent match (with experimental results). The crude oil was de-asphalted prior to conducting the experiment in order to isolate the effect of asphaltene plugging. A series of coreflood tests was carried out to observe sulfur precipitation and plugging in a carbonate rock. Significant plugging was observed and was found to be dependent on flow rate and initial sulfur concentration. This information was used in the phenomenological model and can be incorporated in the wellbore numerical model. (author)
Well test mathematical model for fractures network in tight oil reservoirs
Diwu, Pengxiang; Liu, Tongjing; Jiang, Baoyi; Wang, Rui; Yang, Peidie; Yang, Jiping; Wang, Zhaoming
2018-02-01
Well test, especially build-up test, has been applied widely in the development of tight oil reservoirs, since it is the only available low cost way to directly quantify flow ability and formation heterogeneity parameters. However, because of the fractures network near wellbore, generated from artificial fracturing linking up natural factures, traditional infinite and finite conductivity fracture models usually result in significantly deviation in field application. In this work, considering the random distribution of natural fractures, physical model of fractures network is proposed, and it shows a composite model feature in the large scale. Consequently, a nonhomogeneous composite mathematical model is established with threshold pressure gradient. To solve this model semi-analytically, we proposed a solution approach including Laplace transform and virtual argument Bessel function, and this method is verified by comparing with existing analytical solution. The matching data of typical type curves generated from semi-analytical solution indicates that the proposed physical and mathematical model can describe the type curves characteristic in typical tight oil reservoirs, which have up warping in late-term rather than parallel lines with slope 1/2 or 1/4. It means the composite model could be used into pressure interpretation of artificial fracturing wells in tight oil reservoir.
Vasquez, D. A.; Swift, J. N.; Tan, S.; Darrah, T. H.
2013-12-01
The integration of precise geochemical analyses with quantitative engineering modeling into an interactive GIS system allows for a sophisticated and efficient method of reservoir engineering and characterization. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is utilized as an advanced technique for oil field reservoir analysis by combining field engineering and geological/geochemical spatial datasets with the available systematic modeling and mapping methods to integrate the information into a spatially correlated first-hand approach in defining surface and subsurface characteristics. Three key methods of analysis include: 1) Geostatistical modeling to create a static and volumetric 3-dimensional representation of the geological body, 2) Numerical modeling to develop a dynamic and interactive 2-dimensional model of fluid flow across the reservoir and 3) Noble gas geochemistry to further define the physical conditions, components and history of the geologic system. Results thus far include using engineering algorithms for interpolating electrical well log properties across the field (spontaneous potential, resistivity) yielding a highly accurate and high-resolution 3D model of rock properties. Results so far also include using numerical finite difference methods (crank-nicholson) to solve for equations describing the distribution of pressure across field yielding a 2D simulation model of fluid flow across reservoir. Ongoing noble gas geochemistry results will also include determination of the source, thermal maturity and the extent/style of fluid migration (connectivity, continuity and directionality). Future work will include developing an inverse engineering algorithm to model for permeability, porosity and water saturation.This combination of new and efficient technological and analytical capabilities is geared to provide a better understanding of the field geology and hydrocarbon dynamics system with applications to determine the presence of hydrocarbon pay zones (or
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bevillon, D.
2000-11-30
The aim of this study is to provide a better description of the rock contribution to fluid flows in petroleum reservoirs. The production of oil/gas in soft highly compacting reservoirs induces important reduction of the pore volume, which increases oil productivity. This compaction leads to undesirable effects such as surface subsidence or damage of well equipment. Analysis of compaction and subsidence can be performed using either engineering reservoir models or coupled poro-mechanical models. Poro-mechanical model offers a rigorous mechanical framework, but does not permit a complete description of the fluids. The reservoir model gives a good description of the fluid phases, but the description of the mechanic phenomenon is then simplified. To satisfy the set of equations (mechanical equilibrium and diffusivity equations), two simulators can be used together sequentially. Each of the two simulators solves its own system independently, and information passed both directions between simulators. This technique is usually referred to the partially coupled scheme. In this study, reservoir and hydro-mechanical simulations show that reservoir theory is not a rigorous framework to represent the evolution of the high porous rocks strains. Then, we introduce a partially coupled scheme that is shown to be consistent and unconditionally stable, which permits to describe correctly poro-mechanical theory in reservoir models. (author)
System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2 storage in gas reservoirs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.
2007-01-01
One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO 2 storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost of CO 2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasis to date on system-level analyses of geological CO 2 storage that consider geological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailed process models to representations of engineering components and associated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop a system-level model for geological CO 2 storage, including CO 2 capture and separation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, and CO 2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailed reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection into a gas reservoir and related enhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associated environmental impacts are also considered. The platform for the system-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim Technology Group; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system model focuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration with enhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. The reservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2 simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO 2 . Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhanced gas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits of CO 2 injection
On the effects of adaptive reservoir operating rules in hydrological physically-based models
Giudici, Federico; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo
2017-04-01
Recent years have seen a significant increase of the human influence on the natural systems both at the global and local scale. Accurately modeling the human component and its interaction with the natural environment is key to characterize the real system dynamics and anticipate future potential changes to the hydrological regimes. Modern distributed, physically-based hydrological models are able to describe hydrological processes with high level of detail and high spatiotemporal resolution. Yet, they lack in sophistication for the behavior component and human decisions are usually described by very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the catchment dynamics. In the case of water reservoir operators, these simplistic rules usually consist of target-level rule curves, which represent the average historical level trajectory. Whilst these rules can reasonably reproduce the average seasonal water volume shifts due to the reservoirs' operation, they cannot properly represent peculiar conditions, which influence the actual reservoirs' operation, e.g., variations in energy price or water demand, dry or wet meteorological conditions. Moreover, target-level rule curves are not suitable to explore the water system response to climate and socio economic changing contexts, because they assume a business-as-usual operation. In this work, we quantitatively assess how the inclusion of adaptive reservoirs' operating rules into physically-based hydrological models contribute to the proper representation of the hydrological regime at the catchment scale. In particular, we contrast target-level rule curves and detailed optimization-based behavioral models. We, first, perform the comparison on past observational records, showing that target-level rule curves underperform in representing the hydrological regime over multiple time scales (e.g., weekly, seasonal, inter-annual). Then, we compare how future hydrological changes are affected by the two modeling
Simulation-optimization model of reservoir operation based on target storage curves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong-bin Fang
2014-10-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a new storage allocation rule based on target storage curves. Joint operating rules are also proposed to solve the operation problems of a multi-reservoir system with joint demands and water transfer-supply projects. The joint operating rules include a water diversion rule to determine the amount of diverted water in a period, a hedging rule based on an aggregated reservoir to determine the total release from the system, and a storage allocation rule to specify the release from each reservoir. A simulation-optimization model was established to optimize the key points of the water diversion curves, the hedging rule curves, and the target storage curves using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The multi-reservoir water supply system located in Liaoning Province, China, including a water transfer-supply project, was employed as a case study to verify the effectiveness of the proposed join operating rules and target storage curves. The results indicate that the proposed operating rules are suitable for the complex system. The storage allocation rule based on target storage curves shows an improved performance with regard to system storage distribution.
A welfare study into capture fisheries in cirata reservoir: a bio-economic model
Anna, Z.; Hindayani, P.
2018-04-01
Capture fishery in inland such as reservoirs can be a source of food security and even the economy and public welfare of the surrounding community. This research was conducted on Cirata reservoir fishery in West Java, to see how far reservoir capture fishery can contribute economically in the form of resource rents. The method used is the bioeconomic model Copes, which can analyze the demand and supply functions to calculate the optimization of stakeholders’ welfare in various management regimes. The results showed that the management of capture fishery using Maximum Economic Yield regime (MEY) gave the most efficient result, where fewer inputs would produce maximum profit. In the MEY management, the producer surplus obtained is IDR 2,610.203.099, - per quarter and IDR 273.885.400,- of consumer surplus per quarter. Furthermore, researches showed that sustainable management regime policy MEY result in the government rent/surplus ofIDR 217.891,345, - per quarter with the average price of fish per kg being IDR 13.929. In open access fishery, it was shown that the producer surplus becomesIDR 0. Thus the implementation of the MEY-based instrument policy becomes a necessity for Cirata reservoir capture fishery.
Computer Modeling of the Displacement Behavior of Carbon Dioxide in Undersaturated Oil Reservoirs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ju Binshan
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The injection of CO2 into oil reservoirs is performed not only to improve oil recovery but also to store CO2 captured from fuel combustion. The objective of this work is to develop a numerical simulator to predict quantitatively supercritical CO2 flooding behaviors for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR. A non-isothermal compositional flow mathematical model is developed. The phase transition diagram is designed according to the Minimum Miscibility Pressure (MMP and CO2 maximum solubility in oil phase. The convection and diffusion of CO2 mixtures in multiphase fluids in reservoirs, mass transfer between CO2 and crude and phase partitioning are considered. The governing equations are discretized by applying a fully implicit finite difference technique. Newton-Raphson iterative technique was used to solve the nonlinear equation systems and a simulator was developed. The performances of CO2 immiscible and miscible flooding in oil reservoirs are predicted by the new simulator. The distribution of pressure and temperature, phase saturations, mole fraction of each component in each phase, formation damage caused by asphaltene precipitation and the improved oil recovery are predicted by the simulator. Experimental data validate the developed simulator by comparison with simulation results. The applications of the simulator in prediction of CO2 flooding in oil reservoirs indicate that the simulator is robust for predicting CO2 flooding performance.
Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E
2017-10-01
Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full field reservoir modeling of shale assets using advanced data-driven analytics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soodabeh Esmaili
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Hydrocarbon production from shale has attracted much attention in the recent years. When applied to this prolific and hydrocarbon rich resource plays, our understanding of the complexities of the flow mechanism (sorption process and flow behavior in complex fracture systems - induced or natural leaves much to be desired. In this paper, we present and discuss a novel approach to modeling, history matching of hydrocarbon production from a Marcellus shale asset in southwestern Pennsylvania using advanced data mining, pattern recognition and machine learning technologies. In this new approach instead of imposing our understanding of the flow mechanism, the impact of multi-stage hydraulic fractures, and the production process on the reservoir model, we allow the production history, well log, completion and hydraulic fracturing data to guide our model and determine its behavior. The uniqueness of this technology is that it incorporates the so-called “hard data” directly into the reservoir model, so that the model can be used to optimize the hydraulic fracture process. The “hard data” refers to field measurements during the hydraulic fracturing process such as fluid and proppant type and amount, injection pressure and rate as well as proppant concentration. This novel approach contrasts with the current industry focus on the use of “soft data” (non-measured, interpretive data such as frac length, width, height and conductivity in the reservoir models. The study focuses on a Marcellus shale asset that includes 135 wells with multiple pads, different landing targets, well length and reservoir properties. The full field history matching process was successfully completed using this data driven approach thus capturing the production behavior with acceptable accuracy for individual wells and for the entire asset.
Updated thermal model using simplified short-wave radiosity calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, J.A.; Goltz, S.M.
1994-01-01
An extension to a forest canopy thermal radiance model is described that computes the short-wave energy flux absorbed within the canopy by solving simplified radiosity equations describing flux transfers between canopy ensemble classes partitioned by vegetation layer and leaf slope. Integrated short-wave reflectance and transmittance-factors obtained from measured leaf optical properties were found to be nearly equal for the canopy studied. Short-wave view factor matrices were approximated by combining the average leaf scattering coefficient with the long-wave view factor matrices already incorporated in the model. Both the updated and original models were evaluated for a dense spruce fir forest study site in Central Maine. Canopy short-wave absorption coefficients estimated from detailed Monte Carlo ray tracing calculations were 0.60, 0.04, and 0.03 for the top, middle, and lower canopy layers corresponding to leaf area indices of 4.0, 1.05, and 0.25. The simplified radiosity technique yielded analogous absorption values of 0.55, 0.03, and 0.01. The resulting root mean square error in modeled versus measured canopy temperatures for all layers was less than 1°C with either technique. Maximum error in predicted temperature using the simplified radiosity technique was approximately 2°C during peak solar heating. (author)
Updated thermal model using simplified short-wave radiosity calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, J. A.; Goltz, S. M.
1994-02-15
An extension to a forest canopy thermal radiance model is described that computes the short-wave energy flux absorbed within the canopy by solving simplified radiosity equations describing flux transfers between canopy ensemble classes partitioned by vegetation layer and leaf slope. Integrated short-wave reflectance and transmittance-factors obtained from measured leaf optical properties were found to be nearly equal for the canopy studied. Short-wave view factor matrices were approximated by combining the average leaf scattering coefficient with the long-wave view factor matrices already incorporated in the model. Both the updated and original models were evaluated for a dense spruce fir forest study site in Central Maine. Canopy short-wave absorption coefficients estimated from detailed Monte Carlo ray tracing calculations were 0.60, 0.04, and 0.03 for the top, middle, and lower canopy layers corresponding to leaf area indices of 4.0, 1.05, and 0.25. The simplified radiosity technique yielded analogous absorption values of 0.55, 0.03, and 0.01. The resulting root mean square error in modeled versus measured canopy temperatures for all layers was less than 1°C with either technique. Maximum error in predicted temperature using the simplified radiosity technique was approximately 2°C during peak solar heating. (author)
Updated Reference Model for Heat Generation in the Lithosphere
Wipperfurth, S. A.; Sramek, O.; Roskovec, B.; Mantovani, F.; McDonough, W. F.
2017-12-01
Models integrating geophysics and geochemistry allow for characterization of the Earth's heat budget and geochemical evolution. Global lithospheric geophysical models are now constrained by surface and body wave data and are classified into several unique tectonic types. Global lithospheric geochemical models have evolved from petrological characterization of layers to a combination of petrologic and seismic constraints. Because of these advances regarding our knowledge of the lithosphere, it is necessary to create an updated chemical and physical reference model. We are developing a global lithospheric reference model based on LITHO1.0 (segmented into 1°lon x 1°lat x 9-layers) and seismological-geochemical relationships. Uncertainty assignments and correlations are assessed for its physical attributes, including layer thickness, Vp and Vs, and density. This approach yields uncertainties for the masses of the crust and lithospheric mantle. Heat producing element abundances (HPE: U, Th, and K) are ascribed to each volume element. These chemical attributes are based upon the composition of subducting sediment (sediment layers), composition of surface rocks (upper crust), a combination of petrologic and seismic correlations (middle and lower crust), and a compilation of xenolith data (lithospheric mantle). The HPE abundances are correlated within each voxel, but not vertically between layers. Efforts to provide correlation of abundances horizontally between each voxel are discussed. These models are used further to critically evaluate the bulk lithosphere heat production in the continents and the oceans. Cross-checks between our model and results from: 1) heat flux (Artemieva, 2006; Davies, 2013; Cammarano and Guerri, 2017), 2) gravity (Reguzzoni and Sampietro, 2015), and 3) geochemical and petrological models (Rudnick and Gao, 2014; Hacker et al. 2015) are performed.
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Keywords: reservoir model, siltation, sediment, catchment, sediment transport. 1. Introduction. Sediment ... rendered water storage structures useless in less than 25 years. ... reservoir, thus reducing the space available for water storage and ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silva, S.S. De.
1990-01-01
At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop
Updating of a dynamic finite element model from the Hualien scale model reactor building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billet, L.; Moine, P.; Lebailly, P.
1996-08-01
The forces occurring at the soil-structure interface of a building have generally a large influence on the way the building reacts to an earthquake. One can be tempted to characterise these forces more accurately bu updating a model from the structure. However, this procedure requires an updating method suitable for dissipative models, since significant damping can be observed at the soil-structure interface of buildings. Such a method is presented here. It is based on the minimization of a mechanical energy built from the difference between Eigen data calculated bu the model and Eigen data issued from experimental tests on the real structure. An experimental validation of this method is then proposed on a model from the HUALIEN scale-model reactor building. This scale-model, built on the HUALIEN site of TAIWAN, is devoted to the study of soil-structure interaction. The updating concerned the soil impedances, modelled by a layer of springs and viscous dampers attached to the building foundation. A good agreement was found between the Eigen modes and dynamic responses calculated bu the updated model and the corresponding experimental data. (authors). 12 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs
Liu, Mei-Bing; Chen, Dong-Ping; Chen, Xing-Wei; Chen, Ying
2013-12-01
A coupled watershed-reservoir modeling approach consisting of a watershed distributed model (SWAT) and a two-dimensional laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted for simulating the impact of non-point source pollution from upland watershed on water quality of Shanmei Reservoir. Using the daily serial output from Shanmei Reservoir watershed by SWAT as the input to Shanmei Reservoir by CE-QUAL-W2, the coupled modeling was calibrated for runoff and outputs of sediment and pollutant at watershed scale and for elevation, temperature, nitrate, ammonium and total nitrogen in Shanmei Reservoir. The results indicated that the simulated values agreed fairly well with the observed data, although the calculation precision of downstream model would be affected by the accumulative errors generated from the simulation of upland model. The SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 coupled modeling could be used to assess the hydrodynamic and water quality process in complex watershed comprised of upland watershed and downstream reservoir, and might further provide scientific basis for positioning key pollution source area and controlling the reservoir eutrophication.
Xu, Cong; Zhang, Jingjie; Bi, Xiaowei; Xu, Zheng; He, Yiliang; Gin, Karina Yew-Hoong
2017-12-01
An integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model was developed for better understanding of the fate and transport of emerging contaminants in Qingcaosha Reservoir. The reservoir, which supplies drinking water for nearly half of Shanghai's population, is located in Yangtze Delta. The integrated model was built by Delft3D suite, a fully integrated multidimensional modeling software. Atrazine and Bisphenol A (BPA) were selected as two representative emerging contaminants for the study in this reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated against observations from 2011 to 2015 while the integrated model was calibrated against observations from 2014 to 2015 and then applied to explore the potential risk of high atrazine concentrations in the reservoir driven by agriculture activities. Our results show that the model is capable of describing the spatial and temporal patterns of water temperature, salinity and the dynamic distributions of two representative emerging contaminants (i.e. atrazine and BPA) in the reservoir. The physical and biodegradation processes in this study were found to play a crucial role in determining the fate and transport of atrazine and BPA in the reservoir. The model also provides an insight into the potential risk of emerging contaminants and possible mitigation thresholds. The integrated approach can be a very useful tool to support policy-makers in the future management of Qingcaosha Reservoir. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
McAllister, M.; Gochis, D.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; McCreight, J. L.; Pan, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Read, L. K.; Sampson, K. M.; Yu, W.
2017-12-01
The community WRF-Hydro modeling system is publicly available and provides researchers and operational forecasters a flexible and extensible capability for performing multi-scale, multi-physics options for hydrologic modeling that can be run independent or fully-interactive with the WRF atmospheric model. The core WRF-Hydro physics model contains very high-resolution descriptions of terrestrial hydrologic process representations such as land-atmosphere exchanges of energy and moisture, snowpack evolution, infiltration, terrain routing, channel routing, basic reservoir representation and hydrologic data assimilation. Complementing the core physics components of WRF-Hydro are an ecosystem of pre- and post-processing tools that facilitate the preparation of terrain and meteorological input data, an open-source hydrologic model evaluation toolset (Rwrfhydro), hydrologic data assimilation capabilities with DART and advanced model visualization capabilities. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), through collaborative support from the National Science Foundation and other funding partners, provides community support for the entire WRF-Hydro system through a variety of mechanisms. This presentation summarizes the enhanced user support capabilities that are being developed for the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. These products and services include a new website, open-source code repositories, documentation and user guides, test cases, online training materials, live, hands-on training sessions, an email list serve, and individual user support via email through a new help desk ticketing system. The WRF-Hydro modeling system and supporting tools which now include re-gridding scripts and model calibration have recently been updated to Version 4 and are merging toward capabilities of the National Water Model.
Development of a Reservoir System Operation Model for Water Sustainability in the Yaqui River Basin
Mounir, A.; Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kauneckis, D.
2017-12-01
The arid state of Sonora, Mexico underwent the Sonora SI project to provide additional water supply to the capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the project involves an interbasin transfer from the Yaqui River Basin (YRB) to the Sonora River Basin via the Independencia aqueduct. This project has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors in the YRB. To improve the management of the Yaqui reservoir system, we developed a daily watershed model. This model allowed us to predict the amount of water available in different regions of the basin. We integrated this simulation to an optimization model which calculates the best water allocation according to water rights established in Mexico's National Water Law. We compared different precipitation forcing scenarios: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies during the historical period of 1980-2013, (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution, and (3) we will be studying a future forecast scenario. The simulation results were compared to historical observations at the three reservoirs existing in the YRB to generate confidence in the simulation tools. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedance frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate building confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of reservoir operation policies.
Thermo-hydrodynamical modelling of a flooded deep mine reservoir - Case of the Lorraine Coal Basin
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reichart, Guillaume
2015-01-01
Since 2006, cessation of dewatering in Lorraine Coal Basin (France) led to the flooding of abandoned mines, resulting in a new hydrodynamic balance in the area. Recent researches concerning geothermal exploitation of flooded reservoirs raised new questions, which we propose to answer. Our work aimed to understand the thermos-hydrodynamic behaviour of mine water in a flooding or flooded system. Firstly, we synthesized the geographical, geological and hydrogeological contexts of the Lorraine Coal Basin, and we chose a specific area for our studies. Secondly, temperature and electric conductivity log profiles were measured in old pits of the Lorraine Coal Basin, giving a better understanding of the water behaviour at a deep mine shaft scale. We were able to build a thermos-hydrodynamic model and simulate water behaviour at this scale. Flow regime stability is also studied. Thirdly, a hydrodynamic spatialized meshed model was realized to study the hydrodynamic behaviour of a mine reservoir as a whole. Observed water-table rise was correctly reproduced: moreover, the model can be used in a predictive way after the flooding. Several tools were tested, improved or developed to ease the study of flooded reservoirs, as three-dimensional up-scaling of hydraulic conductivities and a coupled spatialized meshed model with a pipe network. (author) [fr
Slab2 - Updated Subduction Zone Geometries and Modeling Tools
Moore, G.; Hayes, G. P.; Portner, D. E.; Furtney, M.; Flamme, H. E.; Hearne, M. G.
2017-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey database of global subduction zone geometries (Slab1.0), is a highly utilized dataset that has been applied to a wide range of geophysical problems. In 2017, these models have been improved and expanded upon as part of the Slab2 modeling effort. With a new data driven approach that can be applied to a broader range of tectonic settings and geophysical data sets, we have generated a model set that will serve as a more comprehensive, reliable, and reproducible resource for three-dimensional slab geometries at all of the world's convergent margins. The newly developed framework of Slab2 is guided by: (1) a large integrated dataset, consisting of a variety of geophysical sources (e.g., earthquake hypocenters, moment tensors, active-source seismic survey images of the shallow slab, tomography models, receiver functions, bathymetry, trench ages, and sediment thickness information); (2) a dynamic filtering scheme aimed at constraining incorporated seismicity to only slab related events; (3) a 3-D data interpolation approach which captures both high resolution shallow geometries and instances of slab rollback and overlap at depth; and (4) an algorithm which incorporates uncertainties of contributing datasets to identify the most probable surface depth over the extent of each subduction zone. Further layers will also be added to the base geometry dataset, such as historic moment release, earthquake tectonic providence, and interface coupling. Along with access to several queryable data formats, all components have been wrapped into an open source library in Python, such that suites of updated models can be released as further data becomes available. This presentation will discuss the extent of Slab2 development, as well as the current availability of the model and modeling tools.
System Identification Based Proxy Model of a Reservoir under Water Injection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Berihun M. Negash
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Simulation of numerical reservoir models with thousands and millions of grid blocks may consume a significant amount of time and effort, even when high performance processors are used. In cases where the simulation runs are required for sensitivity analysis, dynamic control, and optimization, the act needs to be repeated several times by continuously changing parameters. This makes it even more time-consuming. Currently, proxy models that are based on response surface are being used to lessen the time required for running simulations during sensitivity analysis and optimization. Proxy models are lighter mathematical models that run faster and perform in place of heavier models that require large computations. Nevertheless, to acquire data for modeling and validation and develop the proxy model itself, hundreds of simulation runs are required. In this paper, a system identification based proxy model that requires only a single simulation run and a properly designed excitation signal was proposed and evaluated using a benchmark case study. The results show that, with proper design of excitation signal and proper selection of model structure, system identification based proxy models are found to be practical and efficient alternatives for mimicking the performance of numerical reservoir models. The resulting proxy models have potential applications for dynamic well control and optimization.
An Update to the NASA Reference Solar Sail Thrust Model
Heaton, Andrew F.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra B.
2015-01-01
An optical model of solar sail material originally derived at JPL in 1978 has since served as the de facto standard for NASA and other solar sail researchers. The optical model includes terms for specular and diffuse reflection, thermal emission, and non-Lambertian diffuse reflection. The standard coefficients for these terms are based on tests of 2.5 micrometer Kapton sail material coated with 100 nm of aluminum on the front side and chromium on the back side. The original derivation of these coefficients was documented in an internal JPL technical memorandum that is no longer available. Additionally more recent optical testing has taken place and different materials have been used or are under consideration by various researchers for solar sails. Here, where possible, we re-derive the optical coefficients from the 1978 model and update them to accommodate newer test results and sail material. The source of the commonly used value for the front side non-Lambertian coefficient is not clear, so we investigate that coefficient in detail. Although this research is primarily designed to support the upcoming NASA NEA Scout and Lunar Flashlight solar sail missions, the results are also of interest to the wider solar sail community.
Robot Visual Tracking via Incremental Self-Updating of Appearance Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danpei Zhao
2013-09-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a target tracking method called Incremental Self-Updating Visual Tracking for robot platforms. Our tracker treats the tracking problem as a binary classification: the target and the background. The greyscale, HOG and LBP features are used in this work to represent the target and are integrated into a particle filter framework. To track the target over long time sequences, the tracker has to update its model to follow the most recent target. In order to deal with the problems of calculation waste and lack of model-updating strategy with the traditional methods, an intelligent and effective online self-updating strategy is devised to choose the optimal update opportunity. The strategy of updating the appearance model can be achieved based on the change in the discriminative capability between the current frame and the previous updated frame. By adjusting the update step adaptively, severe waste of calculation time for needless updates can be avoided while keeping the stability of the model. Moreover, the appearance model can be kept away from serious drift problems when the target undergoes temporary occlusion. The experimental results show that the proposed tracker can achieve robust and efficient performance in several benchmark-challenging video sequences with various complex environment changes in posture, scale, illumination and occlusion.
Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.
Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C
2016-11-01
In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudia Ledesma
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Water quality is traditionally monitored and evaluated based upon field data collected at limited locations. The storage capacity of reservoirs is reduced by deposits of suspended matter. The major factors affecting surface water quality are suspended sediments, chlorophyll and nutrients. Modeling and monitoring the biogeochemical status of reservoirs can be done through data from remote sensors. Since the improvement of sensors’ spatial and spectral resolutions, satellites have been used to monitor the interior areas of bodies of water. Water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll-a concentration and secchi disk depth, were found to have a high correlation with transformed spectral variables derived from bands 1, 2, 3 and 4 of LANDSAT 5TM satellite. We created models of estimated responses in regard to values of chlorophyll-a. To do so, we used population models of single and multiple linear regression, whose parameters are associated with the reflectance data of bands 2 and 4 of the sub-image of the satellite, as well as the data of chlorophyll-a obtained in 25 selected stations. According to the physico-chemical analyzes performed, the characteristics of the water in the reservoir of Rio Tercero, correspond to somewhat hard freshwater with calcium bicarbonate. The water was classified as usable as a source of plant treatment, excellent for irrigation because of its low salinity and low residual sodium carbonate content, but unsuitable for animal consumption because of its low salt content.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Sulis
2014-04-01
Full Text Available The definition of a synthetic index for classifying the quality of water bodies is a key aspect in integrated planning and management of water resource systems. In previous works [1,2], a water system optimization modeling approach that requires a single quality index for stored water in reservoirs has been applied to a complex multi-reservoir system. Considering the same modeling field, this paper presents an improved quality index estimated both on the basis of the overall trophic state of the water body and on the basis of the density values of the most potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. The implementation of the index into the optimization model makes it possible to reproduce the conditions limiting water use due to excessive nutrient enrichment in the water body and to the health hazard linked to toxic blooms. The analysis of an extended limnological database (1996–2012 in four reservoirs of the Flumendosa-Campidano system (Sardinia, Italy provides useful insights into the strengths and limitations of the proposed synthetic index.
Sulis, Andrea; Buscarinu, Paola; Soru, Oriana; Sechi, Giovanni M
2014-04-22
The definition of a synthetic index for classifying the quality of water bodies is a key aspect in integrated planning and management of water resource systems. In previous works [1,2], a water system optimization modeling approach that requires a single quality index for stored water in reservoirs has been applied to a complex multi-reservoir system. Considering the same modeling field, this paper presents an improved quality index estimated both on the basis of the overall trophic state of the water body and on the basis of the density values of the most potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. The implementation of the index into the optimization model makes it possible to reproduce the conditions limiting water use due to excessive nutrient enrichment in the water body and to the health hazard linked to toxic blooms. The analysis of an extended limnological database (1996-2012) in four reservoirs of the Flumendosa-Campidano system (Sardinia, Italy) provides useful insights into the strengths and limitations of the proposed synthetic index.
Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos
2017-12-01
The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for
He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.
2016-04-01
Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and
Foothills model forest grizzly bear study : project update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2002-01-01
This report updates a five year study launched in 1999 to ensure the continued healthy existence of grizzly bears in west-central Alberta by integrating their needs into land management decisions. The objective was to gather better information and to develop computer-based maps and models regarding grizzly bear migration, habitat use and response to human activities. The study area covers 9,700 square km in west-central Alberta where 66 to 147 grizzly bears exist. During the first 3 field seasons, researchers captured and radio collared 60 bears. Researchers at the University of Calgary used remote sensing tools and satellite images to develop grizzly bear habitat maps. Collaborators at the University of Washington used trained dogs to find bear scat which was analyzed for DNA, stress levels and reproductive hormones. Resource Selection Function models are being developed by researchers at the University of Alberta to identify bear locations and to see how habitat is influenced by vegetation cover and oil, gas, forestry and mining activities. The health of the bears is being studied by researchers at the University of Saskatchewan and the Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre. The study has already advanced the scientific knowledge of grizzly bear behaviour. Preliminary results indicate that grizzlies continue to find mates, reproduce and gain weight and establish dens. These are all good indicators of a healthy population. Most bear deaths have been related to poaching. The study will continue for another two years. 1 fig.
Climate modeling - a tool for the assessment of the paleodistribution of source and reservoir rocks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roscher, M.; Schneider, J.W. [Technische Univ. Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany). Inst. fuer Geologie; Berner, U. [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany). Referat Organische Geochemie/Kohlenwasserstoff-Forschung
2008-10-23
In an on-going project of BGR and TU Bergakademie Freiberg, numeric paleo-climate modeling is used as a tool for the assessment of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits as well as of reservoir rocks. This modeling approach is based on new ideas concerning the formation of the Pangea supercontinent. The new plate tectonic concept is supported by paleo- magnetic data as it fits the 95% confidence interval of published data. Six Permocarboniferous time slices (340, 320, 300, 290, 270, 255 Ma) were chosen within a first paleo-climate modeling approach as they represent the most important changes of the Late Paleozoic climate development. The digital maps have a resolution of 2.8 x 2.8 (T42), suitable for high-resolution climate modeling, using the PLASIM model. CO{sub 2} concentrations of the paleo-atmosphere and paleo-insolation values have been estimated by published methods. For the purpose of validation, quantitative model output, had to be transformed into qualitative parameters in order to be able to compare digital data with qualitative data of geologic indicators. The model output of surface temperatures and precipitation was therefore converted into climate zones. The reconstructed occurrences of geological indicators like aeolian sands, evaporites, reefs, coals, oil source rocks, tillites, phosphorites and cherts were then compared to the computed paleo-climate zones. Examples of the Permian Pangea show a very good agreement between model results and geological indicators. From the modeling approach we are able to identify climatic processes which lead to the deposition of hydrocarbon source and reservoir rocks. The regional assessment of such atmospheric processes may be used for the identification of the paleo-distribution of organic rich deposits or rock types suitable to form hydrocarbon reservoirs. (orig.)
Bao, Kai
2013-01-01
The present work describes a parallel computational framework for CO2 sequestration simulation by coupling reservoir simulation and molecular dynamics (MD) on massively parallel HPC systems. In this framework, a parallel reservoir simulator, Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (RST), solves the flow and transport equations that describe the subsurface flow behavior, while the molecular dynamics simulations are performed to provide the required physical parameters. Numerous technologies from different fields are employed to make this novel coupled system work efficiently. One of the major applications of the framework is the modeling of large scale CO2 sequestration for long-term storage in the subsurface geological formations, such as depleted reservoirs and deep saline aquifers, which has been proposed as one of the most attractive and practical solutions to reduce the CO2 emission problem to address the global-warming threat. To effectively solve such problems, fine grids and accurate prediction of the properties of fluid mixtures are essential for accuracy. In this work, the CO2 sequestration is presented as our first example to couple the reservoir simulation and molecular dynamics, while the framework can be extended naturally to the full multiphase multicomponent compositional flow simulation to handle more complicated physical process in the future. Accuracy and scalability analysis are performed on an IBM BlueGene/P and on an IBM BlueGene/Q, the latest IBM supercomputer. Results show good accuracy of our MD simulations compared with published data, and good scalability are observed with the massively parallel HPC systems. The performance and capacity of the proposed framework are well demonstrated with several experiments with hundreds of millions to a billion cells. To our best knowledge, the work represents the first attempt to couple the reservoir simulation and molecular simulation for large scale modeling. Due to the complexity of the subsurface systems
Bao, Kai
2015-10-26
The present work describes a parallel computational framework for carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration simulation by coupling reservoir simulation and molecular dynamics (MD) on massively parallel high-performance-computing (HPC) systems. In this framework, a parallel reservoir simulator, reservoir-simulation toolbox (RST), solves the flow and transport equations that describe the subsurface flow behavior, whereas the MD simulations are performed to provide the required physical parameters. Technologies from several different fields are used to make this novel coupled system work efficiently. One of the major applications of the framework is the modeling of large-scale CO2 sequestration for long-term storage in subsurface geological formations, such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs and deep saline aquifers, which has been proposed as one of the few attractive and practical solutions to reduce CO2 emissions and address the global-warming threat. Fine grids and accurate prediction of the properties of fluid mixtures under geological conditions are essential for accurate simulations. In this work, CO2 sequestration is presented as a first example for coupling reservoir simulation and MD, although the framework can be extended naturally to the full multiphase multicomponent compositional flow simulation to handle more complicated physical processes in the future. Accuracy and scalability analysis are performed on an IBM BlueGene/P and on an IBM BlueGene/Q, the latest IBM supercomputer. Results show good accuracy of our MD simulations compared with published data, and good scalability is observed with the massively parallel HPC systems. The performance and capacity of the proposed framework are well-demonstrated with several experiments with hundreds of millions to one billion cells. To the best of our knowledge, the present work represents the first attempt to couple reservoir simulation and molecular simulation for large-scale modeling. Because of the complexity of
Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel
Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also
Inverse Problems in Geosciences: Modelling the Rock Properties of an Oil Reservoir
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lange, Katrine
. We have developed and implemented the Frequency Matching method that uses the closed form expression of the a priori probability density function to formulate an inverse problem and compute the maximum a posteriori solution to it. Other methods for computing models that simultaneously fit data...... of the subsurface of the reservoirs. Hence the focus of this work has been on acquiring models of spatial parameters describing rock properties of the subsurface using geostatistical a priori knowledge and available geophysical data. Such models are solutions to often severely under-determined, inverse problems...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chakravarty, Krishna Hara
recovery can increase that capture up to 25-30% of original oil in place (OOIP). But cost effective Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques if implemented correctly canbe used to produce another 10-15% of the initially available hydrocarbons. Advanced water flooding (i.e. altering injection brine...... compositions by varying concentration of selected ions) is an enhanced oil recovery method which in alow cost, non-toxic manner increases oil recovery from various carbonate reservoirs. Dan and Halfdan are chalk reservoirs from the Danish North Sea, which are matured oil fields that have been flooded......For most oil reservoirs which were drilled with conventional methods, the expected initial recovery of available hydrocarbons maybe as low as 15% – thusleaving 85+% of hydrocarbons in the reservoir. Implementation of mechanical methods including pump jacks and initial gas injection or thermal...
Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.
Lee, Chih-Sheng
2012-05-01
This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang
2012-01-01
Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (~78%) and nutrients (~30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.
A review on model updating of joint structure for dynamic analysis purpose
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahari S.N.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Structural joints provide connection between structural element (beam, plate etc. in order to construct a whole assembled structure. There are many types of structural joints such as bolted joint, riveted joints and welded joints. The joints structures significantly contribute to structural stiffness and dynamic behaviour of structures hence the main objectives of this paper are to review on method of model updating on joints structure and to discuss the guidelines to perform model updating for dynamic analysis purpose. This review paper firstly will outline some of the existing finite element modelling works of joints structure. Experimental modal analysis is the next step to obtain modal parameters (natural frequency & mode shape to validate and improve the discrepancy between results obtained from experimental and the simulation counterparts. Hence model updating will be carried out to minimize the differences between the two results. There are two methods of model updating; direct method and iterative method. Sensitivity analysis employed using SOL200 in NASTRAN by selecting the suitable updating parameters to avoid ill-conditioning problem. It is best to consider both geometrical and material properties in the updating procedure rather than choosing only a number of geometrical properties alone. Iterative method was chosen as the best model updating procedure because the physical meaning of updated parameters are guaranteed although this method required computational effort compare to direct method.
Summary of Expansions, Updates, and Results in GREET 2017 Suite of Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Michael [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Benavides, Pahola Thathiana [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Burnham, Andrew [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cai, Hao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Canter, Christina [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Chen, Rui [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Dai, Qiang [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kelly, Jarod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lee, Dong-Yeon [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lee, Uisung [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Li, Qianfeng [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lu, Zifeng [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Qin, Zhangcai [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sun, Pingping [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Supekar, Sarang D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2017-11-01
This report provides a technical summary of the expansions and updates to the 2017 release of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET®) model, including references and links to key technical documents related to these expansions and updates. The GREET 2017 release includes an updated version of the GREET1 (the fuel-cycle GREET model) and GREET2 (the vehicle-cycle GREET model), both in the Microsoft Excel platform and in the GREET.net modeling platform. Figure 1 shows the structure of the GREET Excel modeling platform. The .net platform integrates all GREET modules together seamlessly.
Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia
2018-04-01
As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper, we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E. The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. `explore or not?'; `open new well or not?'; `contaminated by water or not?'; `double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism). This article is part of the theme issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.
Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia
2018-04-28
As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. 'explore or not?'; 'open new well or not?'; 'contaminated by water or not?'; 'double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism).This article is part of the theme issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bragin, V A; Lyadkin, V Ya
1969-01-01
A potentiometric model is used to simulate the behavior of a reservoir in which pressure was dropped rapidly and solution gas migrated to the top of the structure forming a gas cap. Behavior of the system was represented by a differential equation, which was solved by an electrointegrator. The potentiometric model was found to closely represent past history of the reservoir, and to predict its future behavior. When this method is used in reservoirs where large pressure drops occur, repeated determination should be made at various time intervals, so that changes in relative permeability are taken into account.
Boro, H.; Rosero, E.; Bertotti, G.V.
2014-01-01
Fractures in subsurface reservoirs are known to have significant impacts on reservoir productivity. Quantifying their importance, however, is challenged by limited subsurface observations, and intense computations for modelling and upscaling. In this paper, we present a workflow to construct and
"Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Model"
We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observatio...
A revised model of Jupiter's inner electron belts: Updating the Divine radiation model
Garrett, Henry B.; Levin, Steven M.; Bolton, Scott J.; Evans, Robin W.; Bhattacharya, Bidushi
2005-02-01
In 1983, Divine presented a comprehensive model of the Jovian charged particle environment that has long served as a reference for missions to Jupiter. However, in situ observations by Galileo and synchrotron observations from Earth indicate the need to update the model in the inner radiation zone. Specifically, a review of the model for 1 MeV data. Further modifications incorporating observations from the Galileo and Cassini spacecraft will be reported in the future.
Adaptive forward-inverse modeling of reservoir fluids away from wellbores; TOPICAL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ziagos, J P; Gelinas, R J; Doss, S K; Nelson, R G
1999-01-01
This Final Report contains the deliverables of the DeepLook Phase I project entitled, ''Adaptive Forward-Inverse Modeling of Reservoir Fluids Away from Wellbores''. The deliverables are: (i) a description of 2-D test problem results, analyses, and technical descriptions of the techniques used, (ii) a listing of program setup commands that construct and execute the codes for selected test problems (these commands are in mathematical terminology, which reinforces technical descriptions in the text), and (iii) an evaluation and recommendation regarding continuance of this project, including considerations of possible extensions to 3-D codes, additional technical scope, and budget for the out-years. The far-market objective in this project is to develop advanced technologies that can help locate and enhance the recovery of oil from heterogeneous rock formations. The specific technical objective in Phase I was to develop proof-of-concept of new forward and inverse (F-I) modeling techniques[Gelinas et al, 1998] that seek to enhance estimates (images) of formation permeability distributions and fluid motion away from wellbore volumes. This goes to the heart of improving industry's ability to jointly image reservoir permeability and flow predictions of trapped and recovered oil versus time. The estimation of formation permeability away from borehole measurements is an ''inverse'' problem. It is an inseparable part of modeling fluid flows throughout the reservoir in efforts to increase the efficiency of oil recovery at minimum cost. Classic issues of non-uniqueness, mathematical instability, noise effects, and inadequate numerical solution techniques have historically impeded progress in reservoir parameter estimations. Because information pertaining to fluid and rock properties is always sampled sparsely by wellbore measurements, a successful method for interpolating permeability and fluid data between the measurements must be: (i) physics-based, (ii) conditioned by signal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Onyeagoro, U. O.; Ebong, U. E.; Nworie, E. A.
2002-01-01
The large and varied portfolio of assets managed by oil companies requires quick decision-making and the deployment of best in class technologies in asset management. Timely decision making and the application of the best technologies in reservoir management are however sometimes in conflict due to large time requirements of the latter.Optimizing the location of development wells is critical to account for variable fluid contact movements and pressure interference effects between wells, which can be significant because of the high permeability (Darcy range) of Niger Delta reservoirs. With relatively high drilling costs, the optimization of well locations necessitates a good realistic static and dynamic 3D reservoir description, especially in the recovery of remaining oil and oil rim type of reservoirs.A detailed 3D reservoir model with fault properties was constructed for a Niger delta producing field. This involved the integration of high quality 3D seismic, core, petrophysics, reservoir engineering, production and structural geology data to construct a realistic 3D reservoir/fault property model for the field. The key parameters considered during the construction of the internal architecture of the model were the vertical and horizontal reservoir heterogeneities-this controls the fluid flow within the reservoir. In the production realm, the fault thickness and fault permeabilities are factors that control the impedance of fluid flow across the fault-fault transmissibility. These key internal and external reservoir/structural variables were explicitly modeled in a 3D modeling software to produce different realizations and manage the uncertainties.The resulting 3D reservoir/fault property model was upscaled for simulation purpose such that grid blocks along the fault planes have realistic transmissibility multipliers of 0 to 1 attached to them. The model was also used in the well planner to optimize the positioning of a high angle deviated well that penetrated
Guo, Ning; Yang, Zhichun; Wang, Le; Ouyang, Yan; Zhang, Xinping
2018-05-01
Aiming at providing a precise dynamic structural finite element (FE) model for dynamic strength evaluation in addition to dynamic analysis. A dynamic FE model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the FE model of a structure using strain mode shapes and natural frequencies. The strain mode shape, which is sensitive to local changes in structure, is used instead of the displacement mode for enhancing model updating. The coordinate strain modal assurance criterion is developed to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical strain mode shapes. Moreover, the natural frequencies which provide the global information of the structure are used to guarantee the accuracy of modal properties of the global model. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate strain modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function in the proposed dynamic FE model updating procedure. The hybrid genetic/pattern-search optimization algorithm is adopted to perform the dynamic FE model updating procedure. Numerical simulation and model updating experiment for a clamped-clamped beam are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to update the uncertain parameters with good robustness. And the updated dynamic FE model of the beam structure, which can correctly predict both the natural frequencies and the local dynamic strains, is reliable for the following dynamic analysis and dynamic strength evaluation.
Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S.; Nanba, K.; Wakiyama, Y.; Konoplev, A.; Onda, Y.; Gallego, E.; Papush, L.; Maderych, V.
2015-12-01
The highest densities of the radioisotopes in fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP in March 2011 were measured at the north eastern part of Fukushima Prefecture. The post-accidental aquatic transfer of cesium -134/137 includes multiscale processes: wash-off from the watersheds in solute and with the eroded soil, long-range transport in the rivers, deposition and resuspension of contaminated sediments in reservoirs and floodplains. The models of EU decision support system RODOS are used for predicting dynamics of 137Cs in the Fukushima surface waters and for assessing efficiency of the remediation measures. The transfer of 137Cs through the watershed of Niida River was simulated by DHSVM -R model that includes the modified code of the distributed hydrological and sediment transport model DHSVM (Lettenmayer, Wigmosta et al.) and new module of radionuclide transport. DHSMV-R was tested by modelling the wash-off from the USLE experimental plots in Fukushima prefecture. The model helps to quantify the influence of the differentiators of Fukushima and Chernobyl watersheds, - intensity of extreme precipitation and steepness of watershed, on the much higher values of the ratio "particulated cesium /soluted cesium" in Fukushima rivers than in Chernobyl rivers. Two dimensional model COASTOX and three dimensional model THREETOX are used to simulate the fate of 137Cs in water and sediments of reservoirs in the Manogawa River, Otagawa River, Mizunashigawa River, which transport 137Cs from the heavy contaminated watersheds to the populated areas at the Pacific coast. The modeling of the extreme floods generated by typhoons shows the resuspension of the bottom sediments from the heavy contaminated areas in reservoirs at the mouths of inflowing rivers at the peaks of floods and then re-deposition of 137Cs downstream in the deeper areas. The forecasts of 137Cs dynamics in bottom sediments of the reservoirs were calculated for the set of the scenarios of the sequences of the high
Machine learning in updating predictive models of planning and scheduling transportation projects
1997-01-01
A method combining machine learning and regression analysis to automatically and intelligently update predictive models used in the Kansas Department of Transportations (KDOTs) internal management system is presented. The predictive models used...
Using temporal information to construct, update, and retrieve situation models of narratives
Rinck, M.; Hähnel, A.; Becker, G.
2001-01-01
Four experiments explored how readers use temporal information to construct and update situation models and retrieve them from memory. In Experiment 1, readers spontaneously constructed temporal and spatial situation models of single sentences. In Experiment 2, temporal inconsistencies caused
Ayatollahy Tafti, Tayeb
We develop a new method for integrating information and data from different sources. We also construct a comprehensive workflow for characterizing and modeling a fracture network in unconventional reservoirs, using microseismic data. The methodology is based on combination of several mathematical and artificial intelligent techniques, including geostatistics, fractal analysis, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study contributes to scholarly knowledge base on the characterization and modeling fractured reservoirs in several ways; including a versatile workflow with a novel objective functions. Some the characteristics of the methods are listed below: 1. The new method is an effective fracture characterization procedure estimates different fracture properties. Unlike the existing methods, the new approach is not dependent on the location of events. It is able to integrate all multi-scaled and diverse fracture information from different methodologies. 2. It offers an improved procedure to create compressional and shear velocity models as a preamble for delineating anomalies and map structures of interest and to correlate velocity anomalies with fracture swarms and other reservoir properties of interest. 3. It offers an effective way to obtain the fractal dimension of microseismic events and identify the pattern complexity, connectivity, and mechanism of the created fracture network. 4. It offers an innovative method for monitoring the fracture movement in different stages of stimulation that can be used to optimize the process. 5. Our newly developed MDFN approach allows to create a discrete fracture network model using only microseismic data with potential cost reduction. It also imposes fractal dimension as a constraint on other fracture modeling approaches, which increases the visual similarity between the modeled networks and the real network over the simulated volume.
Marwala, Tshilidzi
2010-01-01
Finite element models (FEMs) are widely used to understand the dynamic behaviour of various systems. FEM updating allows FEMs to be tuned better to reflect measured data and may be conducted using two different statistical frameworks: the maximum likelihood approach and Bayesian approaches. Finite Element Model Updating Using Computational Intelligence Techniques applies both strategies to the field of structural mechanics, an area vital for aerospace, civil and mechanical engineering. Vibration data is used for the updating process. Following an introduction a number of computational intelligence techniques to facilitate the updating process are proposed; they include: • multi-layer perceptron neural networks for real-time FEM updating; • particle swarm and genetic-algorithm-based optimization methods to accommodate the demands of global versus local optimization models; • simulated annealing to put the methodologies into a sound statistical basis; and • response surface methods and expectation m...
Modeling Highly Buoyant Flows in the Castel Giorgio: Torre Alfina Deep Geothermal Reservoir
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giorgio Volpi
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The Castel Giorgio-Torre Alfina (CG-TA, central Italy is a geothermal reservoir whose fluids are hosted in a carbonate formation at temperatures ranging between 120°C and 210°C. Data from deep wells suggest the existence of convective flow. We present the 3D numerical model of the CG-TA to simulate the undisturbed natural geothermal field and investigate the impacts of the exploitation process. The open source finite-element code OpenGeoSys is applied to solve the coupled systems of partial differential equations. The commercial software FEFLOW® is also used as additional numerical constraint. Calculated pressure and temperature have been calibrated against data from geothermal wells. The flow field displays multicellular convective patterns that cover the entire geothermal reservoir. The resulting thermal plumes protrude vertically over 3 km at Darcy velocity of about 7⁎10-8 m/s. The analysis of the exploitation process demonstrated the sustainability of a geothermal doublet for the development of a 5 MW pilot plant. The buoyant circulation within the geothermal system allows the reservoir to sustain a 50-year production at a flow rate of 1050 t/h. The distance of 2 km, between the production and reinjection wells, is sufficient to prevent any thermal breakthrough within the estimated operational lifetime. OGS and FELFOW results are qualitatively very similar with differences in peak velocities and temperatures. The case study provides valuable guidelines for future exploitation of the CG-TA deep geothermal reservoir.
Integrated hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling to assess water exchange in a data-scarce reservoir
Wu, Binbin; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Zhonggen; Liu, Changming; Ma, Jianming
2017-12-01
Integrated hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling is useful in evaluating hydrodynamic characteristics (e.g. water exchange processes) in data-scarce water bodies, however, most studies lack verification of the hydrologic model. Here, water exchange (represented by water age) was investigated through integrated hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of the Hongfeng Reservoir, a poorly gauged reservoir in southwest China. The performance of the hydrologic model and parameter replacement among sub-basins with hydrological similarity was verified by historical data. Results showed that hydrological similarity based on the hierarchical cluster analysis and topographic index probability density distribution was reliable with satisfactory performance of parameter replacement. The hydrodynamic model was verified using daily water levels and water temperatures from 2009 and 2010. The water exchange processes in the Hongfeng Reservoir are very complex with temporal, vertical, and spatial variations. The temporal water age was primarily controlled by the variable inflow and outflow, and the maximum and minimum ages for the site near the dam were 406.10 d (15th June) and 90.74 d (3rd August), respectively, in 2010. Distinct vertical differences in water age showed that surface flow, interflow, and underflow appeared alternately, depending on the season and water depth. The worst water exchange situation was found in the central areas of the North Lake with the highest water ages in the bottom on both 15th June and 3rd August, in 2010. Comparison of the spatial water ages revealed that the more favorable hydraulic conditions on 3rd August mainly improved the water exchange in the dam areas and most areas of the South Lake, but had little effect on the bottom layers of the other deepest areas in the South and North Lakes. The presented framework can be applied in other data-scarce waterbodies worldwide to provide better understanding of water exchange processes.
Assessment of CO2 Storage Potential in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs With Dual-Porosity Models
March, Rafael; Doster, Florian; Geiger, Sebastian
2018-03-01
Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFR's) have received little attention as potential CO2 storage sites. Two main facts deter from storage projects in fractured reservoirs: (1) CO2 tends to be nonwetting in target formations and capillary forces will keep CO2 in the fractures, which typically have low pore volume; and (2) the high conductivity of the fractures may lead to increased spatial spreading of the CO2 plume. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to understand the physics behind brine-CO2 flow in NFR's. Dual-porosity models are typically used to simulate multiphase flow in fractured formations. However, existing dual-porosity models are based on crude approximations of the matrix-fracture fluid transfer processes and often fail to capture the dynamics of fluid exchange accurately. Therefore, more accurate transfer functions are needed in order to evaluate the CO2 transfer to the matrix. This work presents an assessment of CO2 storage potential in NFR's using dual-porosity models. We investigate the impact of a system of fractures on storage in a saline aquifer, by analyzing the time scales of brine drainage by CO2 in the matrix blocks and the maximum CO2 that can be stored in the rock matrix. A new model to estimate drainage time scales is developed and used in a transfer function for dual-porosity simulations. We then analyze how injection rates should be limited in order to avoid early spill of CO2 (lost control of the plume) on a conceptual anticline model. Numerical simulations on the anticline show that naturally fractured reservoirs may be used to store CO2.
Evaluation of two updating methods for dissipative models on a real structure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moine, P.; Billet, L.
1996-01-01
Finite Element Models are widely used to predict the dynamic behaviour from structures. Frequently, the model does not represent the structure with all be expected accuracy i.e. the measurements realised on the structure differ from the data predicted by the model. It is therefore necessary to update the model. Although many modeling errors come from inadequate representation of the damping phenomena, most of the model updating techniques are up to now restricted to conservative models only. In this paper, we present two updating methods for dissipative models using Eigen mode shapes and Eigen values as behavioural information from the structure. The first method - the modal output error method - compares directly the experimental Eigen vectors and Eigen values to the model Eigen vectors and Eigen values whereas the second method - the error in constitutive relation method - uses an energy error derived from the equilibrium relation. The error function, in both cases, is minimized by a conjugate gradient algorithm and the gradient is calculated analytically. These two methods behave differently which can be evidenced by updating a real structure constituted from a piece of pipe mounted on two viscous elastic suspensions. The updating of the model validates an updating strategy consisting in realizing a preliminary updating with the error in constitutive relation method (a fast to converge but difficult to control method) and then to pursue the updating with the modal output error method (a slow to converge but reliable and easy to control method). Moreover the problems encountered during the updating process and their corresponding solutions are given. (authors)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paul La Pointe; Jan Hermanson; Robert Parney; Thorsten Eiben; Mike Dunleavy; Ken Steele; John Whitney; Darrell Eubanks; Roger Straub
2002-11-18
This report describes the results made in fulfillment of contract DE-FG26-00BC15190, ''3-D Reservoir and Stochastic Fracture Network Modeling for Enhanced Oil Recovery, Circle Ridge Phosphoria/Tensleep Reservoir, Wind River Reservation, Arapaho and Shoshone Tribes, Wyoming''. The goal of this project is to improve the recovery of oil from the Tensleep and Phosphoria Formations in Circle Ridge Oilfield, located on the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming, through an innovative integration of matrix characterization, structural reconstruction, and the characterization of the fracturing in the reservoir through the use of discrete fracture network models. Fields in which natural fractures dominate reservoir permeability, such as the Circle Ridge Field, often experience sub-optimal recovery when recovery processes are designed and implemented that do not take advantage of the fracture systems. For example, a conventional waterflood in a main structural block of the Field was implemented and later suspended due to unattractive results. It is estimated that somewhere less than 20% of the OOIP in the Circle Ridge Field have been recovered after more than 50 years' production. Marathon Oil Company identified the Circle Ridge Field as an attractive candidate for several advanced IOR processes that explicitly take advantage of the natural fracture system. These processes require knowledge of the distribution of matrix porosity, permeability and oil saturations; and understanding of where fracturing is likely to be well-developed or poorly developed; how the fracturing may compartmentalize the reservoir; and how smaller, relatively untested subthrust fault blocks may be connected to the main overthrust block. For this reason, the project focused on improving knowledge of the matrix properties, the fault block architecture and to develop a model that could be used to predict fracture intensity, orientation and fluid flow/connectivity properties. Knowledge
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leflon, B.
2005-10-15
When modelling a petroleum reservoir, well data are very useful to model properties at a sub-seismic scale. Petrophysical properties like porosity or permeability are linked to the rock-type. Two methods based on well data have been developed to model facies. The first one is used to model marine carbonates deposits. The geometry of sedimentary layers is modelled through a special parameterization of the reservoir similar to Wheeler space. The time parameter is defined along the well paths thanks to correlations. The layer thickness is then extrapolated between wells. A given relationship between facies and bathymetry of sedimentation makes it possible to compute bathymetry along the well paths. Bathymetry is then extrapolated from wells and a reference map using the concept of accommodation. The model created this way is stratigraphically consistent. Facies simulation can then be constrained by the computed bathymetry. The second method describes a novel approach to fluvial reservoirs modelling. The core of the method lies in the association of a fairway with the channels to be simulated. Fairways are positioned so that all data are taken in account; they can be stochastic if unknown or explicitly entered if identified on seismic data. A potential field is defined within the fairway. Specifying a transfer function to map this potential field to thickness results in generating a channel inside the fairway. A residual component is stochastically simulated and added to the potential field creating realistic channel geometries. Conditioning to well data is obtained by applying the inverse transfer function at the data location to derive thickness values that will constrain the simulation of residuals. (author)
Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study
Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong
2017-04-01
In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Molina-Navarro, Euginio; Trolle, Dennis; Martinez-Pérez, Silvia
Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. All the scenarios predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Zeng
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Multistage fractured horizontal wells (MFHWs have become the main technology for shale gas exploration. However, the existing models have neglected the percolation mechanism in nanopores of organic matter and failed to consider the differences among the reservoir properties in different areas. On that account, in this study, a modified apparent permeability model was proposed describing gas flow in shale gas reservoirs by integrating bulk gas flow in nanopores and gas desorption from nanopores. The apparent permeability was introduced into the macroseepage model to establish a dynamic pressure analysis model for MFHWs dual-porosity formations. The Laplace transformation and the regular perturbation method were used to obtain an analytical solution. The influences of fracture half-length, fracture permeability, Langmuir volume, matrix radius, matrix permeability, and induced fracture permeability on pressure and production were discussed. Results show that fracture half-length, fracture permeability, and induced fracture permeability exert a significant influence on production. A larger Langmuir volume results in a smaller pressure and pressure derivative. An increase in matrix permeability increases the production rate. Besides, this model fits the actual field data relatively well. It has a reliable theoretical foundation and can preferably describe the dynamic changes of pressure in the exploration process.
Historical Streamflow Series Analysis Applied to Furnas HPP Reservoir Watershed Using the SWAT Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Viviane de Souza Dias
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Over the last few years, the operation of the Furnas Hydropower Plant (HPP reservoir, located in the Grande River Basin, has been threatened due to a significant reduction in inflow. In the region, hydrological modelling tools are being used and tested to support decision making and water sustainability. In this study, the streamflow was modelled in the area of direct influence of the Furnas HPP reservoir, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model performance was verified for studies in the region. Analyses of sensitivity and uncertainty were undertaken using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2 with a Calibration Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP. The hydrological modelling, at a monthly scale, presented good results in the calibration (NS 0.86, with a slight reduction of the coefficient in the validation period (NS 0.64. The results suggested that this tool could be applied in future hydrological studies in the region of study. With the consideration that special attention should be given to the historical series used in the calibration and validation of the models. It is important to note that this region has high demands for water resources, primarily for agricultural use. Water demands must also be taken into account in future hydrological simulations. The validation of this methodology led to important contributions to the management of water resources in regions with tropical climates, whose climatological and geological reality resembles the one studied here.
Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William
2010-01-01
expressed effects, such as turbidity and water quality, zooplankton density and size composition, or fish growth rates and assemblage composition, are the upshot of large-scale factors operating outside reservoirs and not under the direct control of reservoir managers. Realistically, abiotic and biotic conditions in reservoirs are shaped by factors working inside and outside reservoirs, with the relative importance of external factors differing among reservoirs. With this perspective, large reservoirs are viewed from a habitat standpoint within the framework of a conceptual model in which individual reservoir characteristics are influenced by both local- and landscape-scale factors (Figure 17.1). In the sections that follow, how each element of this hierarchical model influences habitat and fish assemblages in reservoirs is considered. Important in-reservoir habitat issues and reservoirs as part of larger systems, where reservoir management requires looking for real solutions outside individual reservoirs are described.
Owen, Alexander Emory
This field case study focuses on Upper Jurassic (Oxfordian) Smackover hydrocarbon reservoir characterization, modeling and evaluation at Fishpond Field, Escambia County, Alabama, eastern Gulf Coastal Plain of North America. The field is located in the Conecuh Embayment area, south of the Little Cedar Creek Field in Conecuh County and east of Appleton Field in Escambia County. In the Conecuh Embayment, Smackover microbial buildups commonly developed on Paleozoic basement paleohighs in an inner to middle carbonate ramp setting. The microbial and associated facies identified in Fishpond Field are: (F-1) peloidal wackestone, (F-2) peloidal packstone, (F-3) peloidal grainstone, (F-4) peloidal grainstone/packstone, (F-5) microbially-influenced wackestone, (F-6) microbially-influenced packstone, (F-7) microbial boundstone, (F-8) oolitic grainstone, (F-9) shale, and (F-10) dolomitized wackestone/packstone. The Smackover section consists of an alternation of carbonate facies, including F-1 through F-8. The repetitive vertical trend in facies indicates variations in depositional conditions in the area as a result of changes in water depth, energy conditions, salinity, and/or water chemistry due to temporal variations or changes in relative sea level. Accommodation for sediment accumulation also was produced by a change in base level due to differential movement of basement rocks as a result of faulting and/or subsidence due to burial compaction and extension. These changes in base level contributed to the development of a microbial buildup that ranges between 130-165 ft in thickness. The Fishpond Field carbonate reservoir includes a lower microbial buildup interval, a middle grainstone/packstone interval and an upper microbial buildup interval. The Fishpond Field has sedimentary and petroleum system characteristics similar to the neighboring Appleton and Little Cedar Creek Fields, but also has distinct differences from these Smackover fields. The characteristics of the
Forward modeling of seepage of reservoir dam based on ground penetrating radar
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xueli WU
2017-08-01
Full Text Available The risk of the reservoir dam seepage will bring the waste of water resources and the loss of life and property. The ground penetrating radar (GPR is designed as a daily inspection system of dams to improve the existing technology which can't determine the actual situation of the dam seepage tunnel coordinates. The finite difference time domain (FDTD is used to solve the Yee's grids discreatization in two-dimensional space, and its electromagnetic distribution equation is obtained as well. Based on the actual structure of reservoir dam foundation, the ideal model of air layer, concrete layer, clay layer and two water seepage holes is described in detail, and the concrete layer interference model with limestone interference point is established. The system architecture is implemented by using MATLAB, and the forward modeling is performed. The results indicate that ground penetrating radar can be used for deep target detection. Through comparing the detection spectrum of three kinds of frequency electromagnetic wave by changing the center frequency of the GPR electromagnetic wave of 50 MHz, 100 MHz and 200 MHz, it is concluded that the scanning result is more accurate at 100 MHz. At the same time, the simulation results of the interference model show that this method can be used for the detection of complex terrain.
Modeling of Gas Production from Shale Reservoirs Considering Multiple Transport Mechanisms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chaohua Guo
Full Text Available Gas transport in unconventional shale strata is a multi-mechanism-coupling process that is different from the process observed in conventional reservoirs. In micro fractures which are inborn or induced by hydraulic stimulation, viscous flow dominates. And gas surface diffusion and gas desorption should be further considered in organic nano pores. Also, the Klinkenberg effect should be considered when dealing with the gas transport problem. In addition, following two factors can play significant roles under certain circumstances but have not received enough attention in previous models. During pressure depletion, gas viscosity will change with Knudsen number; and pore radius will increase when the adsorption gas desorbs from the pore wall. In this paper, a comprehensive mathematical model that incorporates all known mechanisms for simulating gas flow in shale strata is presented. The objective of this study was to provide a more accurate reservoir model for simulation based on the flow mechanisms in the pore scale and formation geometry. Complex mechanisms, including viscous flow, Knudsen diffusion, slip flow, and desorption, are optionally integrated into different continua in the model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of different mechanisms on the gas production. The results showed that adsorption and gas viscosity change will have a great impact on gas production. Ignoring one of following scenarios, such as adsorption, gas permeability change, gas viscosity change, or pore radius change, will underestimate gas production.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haiyang Yu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This work presents numerical well testing interpretation model and analysis techniques to evaluate formation by using pressure transient data acquired with logging tools in crossflow double-layer reservoirs by polymer flooding. A well testing model is established based on rheology experiments and by considering shear, diffusion, convection, inaccessible pore volume (IPV, permeability reduction, wellbore storage effect, and skin factors. The type curves were then developed based on this model, and parameter sensitivity is analyzed. Our research shows that the type curves have five segments with different flow status: (I wellbore storage section, (II intermediate flow section (transient section, (III mid-radial flow section, (IV crossflow section (from low permeability layer to high permeability layer, and (V systematic radial flow section. The polymer flooding field tests prove that our model can accurately determine formation parameters in crossflow double-layer reservoirs by polymer flooding. Moreover, formation damage caused by polymer flooding can also be evaluated by comparison of the interpreted permeability with initial layered permeability before polymer flooding. Comparison of the analysis of numerical solution based on flow mechanism with observed polymer flooding field test data highlights the potential for the application of this interpretation method in formation evaluation and enhanced oil recovery (EOR.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Mrabet, R.; Abril, J.M.; Barros, H.; Manjon, G.
2004-01-01
Kinetic transfer coefficients are important parameters to understand and reliably model the behaviour of non-conservative radionuclides in aquatic environments. This report pertains to a series of radiotracer experiments on 239 Pu uptake in natural unfiltered waters from the Hueznar reservoir (southern Spain). The experimental procedure ensures the preservation of environmental conditions and the dissolved Pu activity was measured by liquid scintillation technique. The data suggest that the main pathways for Pu uptake consist of two parallel and reversible reactions followed by a consecutive reversible reaction. We studied the effects of suspended matter concentrations and the specific surface area on the kinetic transfer coefficients. (author)
Use of XML and Java for collaborative petroleum reservoir modeling on the Internet
Victorine, J.; Watney, W.L.; Bhattacharya, S.
2005-01-01
The GEMINI (Geo-Engineering Modeling through INternet Informatics) is a public-domain, web-based freeware that is made up of an integrated suite of 14 Java-based software tools to accomplish on-line, real-time geologic and engineering reservoir modeling. GEMINI facilitates distant collaborations for small company and academic clients, negotiating analyses of both single and multiple wells. The system operates on a single server and an enterprise database. External data sets must be uploaded into this database. Feedback from GEMINI users provided the impetus to develop Stand Alone Web Start Applications of GEMINI modules that reside in and operate from the user's PC. In this version, the GEMINI modules run as applets, which may reside in local user PCs, on the server, or Java Web Start. In this enhanced version, XML-based data handling procedures are used to access data from remote and local databases and save results for later access and analyses. The XML data handling process also integrates different stand-alone GEMINI modules enabling the user(s) to access multiple databases. It provides flexibility to the user to customize analytical approach, database location, and level of collaboration. An example integrated field-study using GEMINI modules and Stand Alone Web Start Applications is provided to demonstrate the versatile applicability of this freeware for cost-effective reservoir modeling. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Model Studies on the Effectiveness of MBBR Reactors for the Restoration of Small Water Reservoirs
Nowak, Agata; Mazur, Robert; Panek, Ewa; Chmist, Joanna
2018-02-01
The authors present the Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor (MBBR) model with a quasi-continuous flow for small water reservoir restoration, characterized by high concentrations of organic pollutants. To determine the efficiency of wastewater treatment the laboratory analysis of physic-chemical parameters were conducted for the model on a semi-technical scale of 1:3. Wastewater treatment process was carried out in 24 h for 1 m3 for raw sewage. The startup period was 2 weeks for all biofilters (biological beds). Approximately 50% reduction in COD and BOD5 was obtained on average for the studied bioreactors. Significant improvements were achieved in theclarity of the treated wastewater, with the reduction of suspension by 60%. The oxygen profile has improved significantly in 7 to 9 hours of the process, and a diametric reduction in the oxidative reduction potential was recorded. A preliminary model of biological treatment effectiveness was determined based on the conducted studies. In final stages, the operation mode was set in real conditions of polluted water reservoirs.
COSTING MODELS FOR WATER SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION: PART III- PUMPS, TANKS, AND RESERVOIRS
Distribution systems are generally designed to ensure hydraulic reliability. Storage tanks, reservoirs and pumps are critical in maintaining this reliability. Although storage tanks, reservoirs and pumps are necessary for maintaining adequate pressure, they may also have a negati...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Yokota, Miyo
2004-01-01
...)) for individual variation and a metabolic rate (M) correction during downhill movements. This study evaluated the updated version of the model incorporating these new features, using a dataset collected during U.S. Marine Corps (USMC...
Multi-objective calibration of a reservoir model: aggregation and non-dominated sorting approaches
Huang, Y.
2012-12-01
Numerical reservoir models can be helpful tools for water resource management. These models are generally calibrated against historical measurement data made in reservoirs. In this study, two methods are proposed for the multi-objective calibration of such models: aggregation and non-dominated sorting methods. Both methods use a hybrid genetic algorithm as an optimization engine and are different in fitness assignment. In the aggregation method, a weighted sum of scaled simulation errors is designed as an overall objective function to measure the fitness of solutions (i.e. parameter values). The contribution of this study to the aggregation method is the correlation analysis and its implication to the choice of weight factors. In the non-dominated sorting method, a novel method based on non-dominated sorting and the method of minimal distance is used to calculate the dummy fitness of solutions. The proposed methods are illustrated using a water quality model that was set up to simulate the water quality of Pepacton Reservoir, which is located to the north of New York City and is used for water supply of city. The study also compares the aggregation and the non-dominated sorting methods. The purpose of this comparison is not to evaluate the pros and cons between the two methods but to determine whether the parameter values, objective function values (simulation errors) and simulated results obtained are significantly different with each other. The final results (objective function values) from the two methods are good compromise between all objective functions, and none of these results are the worst for any objective function. The calibrated model provides an overall good performance and the simulated results with the calibrated parameter values match the observed data better than the un-calibrated parameters, which supports and justifies the use of multi-objective calibration. The results achieved in this study can be very useful for the calibration of water
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
De Ascencao, Erika M.; Munckton, Toni; Digregorio, Ricardo [Petropiar (Venezuela)
2011-07-01
The Huyapari field, situated within the Faja Petrolifera del Orinoco (FPO) of Venezuela presents unique problems in terms of modeling. This field is spread over a wide area and is therefore subject to variable oil quality and complex fluvial facies architecture. Ameriven and PDVSA have been working on characterizing the ld's reservoirs in this field since 2000 and the aim of this paper is to present these efforts. Among others, a 3-D seismic survey completed in 1998 and a stratigraphic framework built from 149 vertical wells were used for reservoir characterization. Geostatistical techniques such as sequential Gaussian simulation with locally varying mean and cloud transform were also used. Results showed that these geostatistical methods accurately represented the architecture and properties of the reservoir and its fluid distribution. This paper showed that the application of numerous different techniques in the Hamasca area permitted reservoir complexity to be captured.
Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bahram Saeidifarzad
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lubis, L A; Harith, Z Z T
2014-01-01
It has been recognized that carbonate reservoirs are one of the biggest sources of hydrocarbon. Clearly, the evaluation of these reservoirs is important and critical. For rigorous reservoir characterization and performance prediction from geophysical measurements, the exact interpretation of geophysical response of different carbonate pore types is crucial. Yet, the characterization of carbonate reservoir rocks is difficult due to their complex pore systems. The significant diagenesis process and complex depositional environment makes pore systems in carbonates far more complicated than in clastics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish rock physics model for carbonate rock type. In this paper, we evaluate the possible rock physics model of 20 core plugs of a Miocene carbonate platform in Central Luconia, Sarawak. The published laboratory data of this area were used as an input to create the carbonate rock physics models. The elastic properties were analyzed to examine the validity of an existing analytical carbonate rock physics model. We integrate the Xu-Payne Differential Effective Medium (DEM) Model and the elastic modulus which was simulated from a digital carbonate rock image using Finite Element Modeling. The results of this integration matched well for the separation of carbonate pore types and sonic P-wave velocity obtained from laboratory measurement. Thus, the results of this study show that the integration of rock digital image and theoretical rock physics might improve the elastic properties prediction and useful for more advance geophysical techniques (e.g. Seismic Inversion) of carbonate reservoir in Sarawak
Modeling of carbonate reservoir variable secondary pore space based on CT images
Nie, X.; Nie, S.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, Z.
2017-12-01
Digital core technology has brought convenience to us, and X-ray CT scanning is one of the most common way to obtain 3D digital cores. However, it can only provide the original information of the only samples being scanned, and we can't modify the porosity of the scanned cores. For numerical rock physical simulations, a series of cores with variable porosities are needed to determine the relationship between the physical properties and porosity. In carbonate rocks, the secondary pore space including dissolution pores, caves and natural fractures is the key reservoir space, which makes the study of carbonate secondary porosity very important. To achieve the variation of porosities in one rock sample, based on CT scanned digital cores, according to the physical and chemical properties of carbonate rocks, several mathematical methods are chosen to simulate the variation of secondary pore space. We use the erosion and dilation operations of mathematical morphology method to simulate the pore space changes of dissolution pores and caves. We also use the Fractional Brownian Motion model to generate natural fractures with different widths and angles in digital cores to simulate fractured carbonate rocks. The morphological opening-and-closing operations in mathematical morphology method are used to simulate distribution of fluid in the pore space. The established 3D digital core models with different secondary porosities and water saturation status can be used in the study of the physical property numerical simulations of carbonate reservoir rocks.
Chung, S W; Lee, H S
2009-01-01
In monsoon climate area, turbidity flows typically induced by flood runoffs cause numerous environmental impacts such as impairment of fish habitat and river attraction, and degradation of water supply efficiency. This study was aimed to characterize the physical dynamics of turbidity plume induced into a stratified reservoir using field monitoring and numerical simulations, and to assess the effect of different withdrawal scenarios on the control of downstream water quality. Three different turbidity models (RUN1, RUN2, RUN3) were developed based on a two-dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic and transport model, and validated against field data. RUN1 assumed constant settling velocity of suspended sediment, while RUN2 estimated the settling velocity as a function of particle size, density, and water temperature to consider vertical stratification. RUN3 included a lumped first-order turbidity attenuation rate taking into account the effects of particles aggregation and degradable organic particles. RUN3 showed best performance in replicating the observed variations of in-reservoir and release turbidity. Numerical experiments implemented to assess the effectiveness of different withdrawal depths showed that the alterations of withdrawal depth can modify the pathway and flow regimes of the turbidity plume, but its effect on the control of release water quality could be trivial.
Oldenburg, C. M.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T.
2017-12-01
The injection of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) in fractured reservoirs has been conducted at several storage sites. However, no site-specific dual-continuum modeling for fractured reservoirs has been reported and modeling studies have generally underestimated the fracture-matrix interactions. We developed a conceptual model for enhanced CO2 storage to take into account global scCO2 migration in the fracture continuum, local storage of scCO2 and dissolved CO2 (dsCO2) in the matrix continuum, and driving forces for scCO2 invasion and dsCO2 diffusion from fractures. High-resolution discrete fracture-matrix models were developed for a column of idealized matrix blocks bounded by vertical and horizontal fractures and for a km-scale fractured reservoir. The column-scale simulation results show that equilibrium storage efficiency strongly depends on matrix entry capillary pressure and matrix-matrix connectivity while the time scale to reach equilibrium is sensitive to fracture spacing and matrix flow properties. The reservoir-scale modeling results shows that the preferential migration of scCO2 through fractures is coupled with bulk storage in the rock matrix that in turn retards the fracture scCO2 plume. We also developed unified-form diffusive flux equations to account for dsCO2 storage in brine-filled matrix blocks and found solubility trapping is significant in fractured reservoirs with low-permeability matrix.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yuan, Hao; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan
Modeling transport of reservoir fines is of great importance for evaluating the damage of production wells and infectivity decline. The conventional methodology accounts for neither the formation heterogeneity around the wells nor the reservoir fines’ heterogeneity. We have developed an integral...... dispersion equation in modeling the transport and the deposition of reservoir fines. It successfully predicts the unsymmetrical concentration profiles and the hyperexponential deposition in experiments....
Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.
2015-04-01
Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cortes, P.; Petit, J.P. [Montpellier-2 Univ., Lab. de Geophysique, Tectonique et Sedimentologie, UMR CNRS 5573, 34 (France); Guy, L. [ELF Aquitaine Production, 64 - Pau (France); Thiry-Bastien, Ph. [Lyon-1 Univ., 69 (France)
1999-07-01
The characterization of structural heterogeneities of reservoirs is of prime importance for hydrocarbons recovery. A methodology is presented which allows to compare the dynamic behaviour of fractured reservoirs and the observation of microstructures on drilled cores or surface reservoir analogues. (J.S.)
The updated geodetic mean dynamic topography model – DTU15MDT
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Maximenko, Nikolai
An update to the global mean dynamic topography model DTU13MDT is presented. For DTU15MDT the newer gravity model EIGEN-6C4 has been combined with the DTU15MSS mean sea surface model to construct this global mean dynamic topography model. The EIGEN-6C4 is derived using the full series of GOCE data...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lisbet Sneftrup; Borup, Morten; Moller, Arne
2014-01-01
drainage models and reduce a number of unavoidable discrepancies between the model and reality. The latter can be achieved partly by inserting measured water levels from the sewer system into the model. This article describes how deterministic updating of model states in this manner affects a simulation...
Sustainable Irrigation Allocation Model for Dry and Wet Periods using Reservoir Storage and Inflow
Surianarayanan, S.; Suribabu, C. R.; Ramakrishnan, K.
2017-07-01
The dry period agriculture is inevitable both for the farmers for their earning, and for the soil for its fertility by crop-rotation. In tropical countries like INDIA, dry period agriculture becomes difficult because of less (or) no rain fall. Hence a simple water balancing model for irrigation scheduling, using the measure “Volumetric Reliability” is prepared in this paper, with the storage and inflow of a reservoir both for the dry and wet periods. The case-study is done for a reservoir in INDIA with thirty one years of hydrological data(from 1982 to 2012). The objective of this paper is to prepare a simple water balance model taking 10 days periods of demand and supply for ID crop(Irrigated Dry crop, ground nut) with usage of volumetric reliability concept for the periods of deficiency and adoption of less water requirement crops to reduce the water-stress during critical periods of crop growth, and finally arrive at a feasible allocation schedule for the success of agriculture and the yield throughout the year both for wet and dry crops with the available storage on the start of irrigation for a particular year. The reservoir is divided for storages such as full, deficient and critical storages. The starting storage for the dry period from January is used after adequate allocation for wet crops, the quantity for riparian rights and for drinking water, for the sustainability. By the water-balancing, the time-series for thirty one years, it is found that for twenty two years the demand for the ID crops is satisfied with the storage in the reservoir, and in the remaining years of deficient inflows, for three years (1986,1996,2004)the demand is managed by using the safe reliability factor for demand which can nullify the deficit in demand for the whole supply period. But it is genuine to assure that the reduction in the amount of water for each 10 days periods should not exceed the survival limit of the crop. Necessary soil-moisture must be ensured in the crop
Augustin, Matthias Albert
2015-01-01
This monograph focuses on the numerical methods needed in the context of developing a reliable simulation tool to promote the use of renewable energy. One very promising source of energy is the heat stored in the Earth’s crust, which is harnessed by so-called geothermal facilities. Scientists from fields like geology, geo-engineering, geophysics and especially geomathematics are called upon to help make geothermics a reliable and safe energy production method. One of the challenges they face involves modeling the mechanical stresses at work in a reservoir. The aim of this thesis is to develop a numerical solution scheme by means of which the fluid pressure and rock stresses in a geothermal reservoir can be determined prior to well drilling and during production. For this purpose, the method should (i) include poroelastic effects, (ii) provide a means of including thermoelastic effects, (iii) be inexpensive in terms of memory and computational power, and (iv) be flexible with regard to the locations of data ...
A neural network model and an update correlation for estimation of dead crude oil viscosity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Naseri, A.; Gharesheikhlou, A.A. [Research Institute of Petroleum Industry (RIPI), Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). PVT Dept.; Yousefi, S.H.; Sanaei, A. [Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Faculty of Petroleum Engineering], E-mail: alirezasanaei.aut@gmail.com
2012-01-15
Viscosity is one of the most important physical properties in reservoir simulation, formation evaluation, in designing surface facilities and in the calculation of original hydrocarbon in-place. Mostly, oil viscosity is measured in PVT laboratories only at reservoir temperature. Hence, it is of great importance to use an accurate correlation for prediction of oil viscosity at different operating conditions and various temperatures. Although, different correlations have been proposed for various regions, the applicability of the existing correlations for Iranian oil reservoirs is limited due to the nature of the Iranian crude oil. In this study, based on Iranian oil reservoir data, a new correlation for the estimation of dead oil viscosity was provided using non-linear multivariable regression and non-linear optimization methods simultaneously with the optimization of the other existing correlations. This new correlation uses API Gravity and temperature as an input parameter. In addition, a neural-network-based model for prediction of dead oil viscosity is presented. Detailed comparisons show that validity and accuracy of the new correlation and the neural-network model are in good agreement with large data set of Iranian oil reservoir when compared with other correlations. (author)
Modeling and Crustal Structure in the Future Reservoir of Jequitaí, Brazil
Teixeira, C. D.; Von Huelsen, M. G.; Chemale, F., Jr.; Nascimento, A. V. D. S., Sr.; do Sacramento, V., Sr.; Garcia, V. B. P., Sr.
2017-12-01
Integrated geophysical and geological data analysis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, allowed the modeling of the subsurface framework in a region where a reservoir - the Jequitaí reservoir - will be constructed. Studies of this nature during the previous stages of the construction of large hydroelectric projects are highly important, because the regional geology understanding associated with geophysical data interpretation can help to prevent damage in the physical structure of the dam, which will aid in its preservation. The use of gravity and magnetic data in a 2D crustal model provided information on a possible framework of the area and revealed features not mapped until now, which may be useful for further studies and can contribute to the understanding of this portion of the crust. The results show the presence of high gravity anomalies in the southern part of the study area, besides extensive lineaments that cross the whole area, interpreted as possible faults and dykes. Depth estimation techniques, such as Euler deconvolution and radially averaged power spectrum, allowed the identification of continuous structures up to 400 m depth, and showed differences in the basement depth in the northern and southern portions of the study area. Inversion of the gravity data along a profile crossing a gravity anomaly yielded to information about the depth, thickness and shape of a possible intrusive body. The geological-geophysical model was consistent with the interpretations based on surface geology and in the gravity and magnetic signal, because the section could be modeled respecting the geophysical data and the pre-existing structural proposals.
Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua
2015-01-01
We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.
Wastewater injection and slip triggering: Results from a 3D coupled reservoir/rate-and-state model
Babazadeh, M.; Olson, J. E.; Schultz, R.
2017-12-01
Seismicity induced by fluid injection is controlled by parameters related to injection conditions, reservoir properties, and fault frictional behavior. We present results from a combined model that brings together injection physics, reservoir dynamics, and fault physics to better explain the primary controls on induced seismicity. We created a 3D fluid flow simulator using the embedded discrete fracture technique and then coupled it with a 3D displacement discontinuity model that uses rate and state friction to model slip events. The model is composed of three layers, including the top-seal, the injection reservoir, and the basement. Permeability is anisotropic (vertical vs horizontal) and along with porosity varies by layer. Injection control can be either rate or pressure. Fault properties include size, 2D permeability, and frictional properties. Several suites of simulations were run to evaluate the relative importance of each of the factors from all three parameter groups. We find that the injection parameters interact with the reservoir parameters in the context of the fault physics and these relations change for different reservoir and fault characteristics, leading to the need to examine the injection parameters only within the context of a particular faulted reservoir. For a reservoir with no flow boundaries, low permeability (5 md), and a fault with high fault-parallel permeability and critical stress, injection rate exerts the strongest control on magnitude and frequency of earthquakes. However, for a higher permeability reservoir (80 md), injection volume becomes the more important factor. Fault permeability structure is a key factor in inducing earthquakes in basement rocks below the injection reservoir. The initial failure state of the fault, which is challenging to assess, can have a big effect on the size and timing of events. For a fault 2 MPa below critical state, we were able to induce a slip event, but it occurred late in the injection history
A Physical Model for Three-Phase Compaction in Silicic Magma Reservoirs
Huber, Christian; Parmigiani, Andrea
2018-04-01
We develop a model for phase separation in magma reservoirs containing a mixture of silicate melt, crystals, and fluids (exsolved volatiles). The interplay between the three phases controls the dynamics of phase separation and consequently the chemical and physical evolution of magma reservoirs. The model we propose is based on the two-phase damage theory approach of Bercovici et al. (2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB900430) and Bercovici and Ricard (2003, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01854.x) because it offers the leverage of considering interface (in the macroscopic limit) between phases that can deform depending on the mechanical work and phase changes taking place locally in the magma. Damage models also offer the advantage that pressure is defined uniquely to each phase and does not need to be equal among phases, which will enable us to consider, in future studies, the large capillary pressure at which fluids are mobilized in mature, crystal-rich, magma bodies. In this first analysis of three-phase compaction, we solve the three-phase compaction equations numerically for a simple 1-D problem where we focus on the effect of fluids on the efficiency of melt-crystal separation considering the competition between viscous and buoyancy stresses only. We contrast three sets of simulations to explore the behavior of three-phase compaction, a melt-crystal reference compaction scenario (two-phase compaction), a three-phase scenario without phase changes, and finally a three-phase scenario with a parameterized second boiling (crystallization-induced exsolution). The simulations show a dramatic difference between two-phase (melt crystals) and three-phase (melt-crystals-exsolved volatiles) compaction-driven phase separation. We find that the presence of a lighter, significantly less viscous fluid hinders melt-crystal separation.
Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence
Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.
2015-01-01
Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by
Fsheikh, Ahmed H.
2013-01-01
A nonlinear orthogonal matching pursuit (NOMP) for sparse calibration of reservoir models is presented. Sparse calibration is a challenging problem as the unknowns are both the non-zero components of the solution and their associated weights. NOMP is a greedy algorithm that discovers at each iteration the most correlated components of the basis functions with the residual. The discovered basis (aka support) is augmented across the nonlinear iterations. Once the basis functions are selected from the dictionary, the solution is obtained by applying Tikhonov regularization. The proposed algorithm relies on approximate gradient estimation using an iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM). ISEM utilizes an ensemble of directional derivatives to efficiently approximate gradients. In the current study, the search space is parameterized using an overcomplete dictionary of basis functions built using the K-SVD algorithm.
The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliforms in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA.
Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Kim, Joon Ha; Kim, Jung-Woo; Park, Mi-Hyun
2012-10-01
This study assessed fecal coliform contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) because bacteria are one of the major water quality parameters of concern. The bacteria subroutine in SWAT, considering in-stream bacteria die-off only, was modified in this study to include solar radiation-associated die-off and the contribution of wildlife. The result of sensitivity analysis demonstrates that solar radiation is one of the most significant fate factors of fecal coliform. A water temperature-associated function to represent the contribution of beaver activity in the watershed to fecal contamination improved prediction accuracy. The modified SWAT model provides an improved estimate of bacteria from the watershed. Our approach will be useful for simulating bacterial concentrations to provide predictive and reliable information of fecal contamination thus facilitating the implementation of effective watershed management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cowton, L. R.; Neufeld, J. A.; Bickle, M.; White, N.; White, J.; Chadwick, A.
2017-12-01
Vertically-integrated gravity current models enable computationally efficient simulations of CO2 flow in sub-surface reservoirs. These simulations can be used to investigate the properties of reservoirs by minimizing differences between observed and modeled CO2 distributions. At the Sleipner project, about 1 Mt yr-1 of supercritical CO2 is injected at a depth of 1 km into a pristine saline aquifer with a thick shale caprock. Analysis of time-lapse seismic reflection surveys shows that CO2 is distributed within 9 discrete layers. The trapping mechanism comprises a stacked series of 1 m thick, impermeable shale horizons that are spaced at 30 m intervals through the reservoir. Within the stratigraphically highest reservoir layer, Layer 9, a submarine channel deposit has been mapped on the pre-injection seismic survey. Detailed measurements of the three-dimensional CO2 distribution within Layer 9 have been made using seven time-lapse surveys, providing a useful benchmark against which numerical flow simulations can be tested. Previous simulations have, in general, been largely unsuccessful in matching the migration rate of CO2 in this layer. Here, CO2 flow within Layer 9 is modeled as a vertically-integrated gravity current that spreads beneath a structurally complex caprock using a two-dimensional grid, considerably increasing computational efficiency compared to conventional three-dimensional simulators. This flow model is inverted to find the optimal reservoir permeability in Layer 9 by minimizing the difference between observed and predicted distributions of CO2 as a function of space and time. A three parameter inverse model, comprising reservoir permeability, channel permeability and channel width, is investigated by grid search. The best-fitting reservoir permeability is 3 Darcys, which is consistent with measurements made on core material from the reservoir. Best-fitting channel permeability is 26 Darcys. Finally, the ability of this simplified numerical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pranter, Matthew J; Vargas, Marielis F; Davis, Thomas L
2008-01-01
This study describes the stratigraphic characteristics and distribution of fluvial deposits of the Upper Cretaceous Williams Fork Formation in a portion of Rulison Field and addresses 3D geologic modelling of reservoir sand bodies and their associated connectivity. Fluvial deposits include isolated and stacked point-bar deposits, crevasse splays and overbank (floodplain) mudrock. Within the Williams Fork Formation, the distribution and connectivity of fluvial sandstones significantly impact reservoir productivity and ultimate recovery. The reservoir sandstones are primarily fluvial point-bar deposits interbedded with shales and coals. Because of the lenticular geometry and limited lateral extent of the reservoir sandstones (common apparent widths of ∼500–1000 ft; ∼150–300 m), relatively high well densities (e.g. 10 acre (660 ft; 200 m) spacing) are often required to deplete the reservoir. Heterogeneity of these fluvial deposits includes larger scale stratigraphic variability associated with vertical stacking patterns and structural heterogeneities associated with faults that exhibit lateral and reverse offsets. The discontinuous character of the fluvial sandstones and lack of distinct marker beds in the middle and upper parts of the Williams Fork Formation make correlation between wells tenuous, even at a 10 acre well spacing. Some intervals of thicker and amalgamated sandstones within the middle and upper Williams Fork Formation can be correlated across greater distances. To aid correlation and for 3D reservoir modelling, vertical lithology proportion curves were used to estimate stratigraphic trends and define the stratigraphic zonation within the reservoir interval. Object-based and indicator-based modelling methods have been applied to the same data and results from the models were compared. Results from the 3D modelling indicate that sandstone connectivity increases with net-to-gross ratio and, at lower net-to-gross ratios (<30%), differences exist in
Maschio, Célio; José Schiozer, Denis
2015-01-01
In this article, a new optimization framework to reduce uncertainties in petroleum reservoir attributes using artificial intelligence techniques (neural network and genetic algorithm) is proposed. Instead of using the deterministic values of the reservoir properties, as in a conventional process, the parameters of the probability density function of each uncertain attribute are set as design variables in an optimization process using a genetic algorithm. The objective function (OF) is based on the misfit of a set of models, sampled from the probability density function, and a symmetry factor (which represents the distribution of curves around the history) is used as weight in the OF. Artificial neural networks are trained to represent the production curves of each well and the proxy models generated are used to evaluate the OF in the optimization process. The proposed method was applied to a reservoir with 16 uncertain attributes and promising results were obtained.
Chang, Ya-Ting; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John
2005-04-01
To bridge the gap between academic research and actual operation, we propose an intelligent control system for reservoir operation. The methodology includes two major processes, the knowledge acquired and implemented, and the inference system. In this study, a genetic algorithm (GA) and a fuzzy rule base (FRB) are used to extract knowledge based on the historical inflow data with a design objective function and on the operating rule curves respectively. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is then used to implement the knowledge, to create the fuzzy inference system, and then to estimate the optimal reservoir operation. To investigate its applicability and practicability, the Shihmen reservoir, Taiwan, is used as a case study. For the purpose of comparison, a simulation of the currently used M-5 operating rule curve is also performed. The results demonstrate that (1) the GA is an efficient way to search the optimal input-output patterns, (2) the FRB can extract the knowledge from the operating rule curves, and (3) the ANFIS models built on different types of knowledge can produce much better performance than the traditional M-5 curves in real-time reservoir operation. Moreover, we show that the model can be more intelligent for reservoir operation if more information (or knowledge) is involved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gawusu, S.
2015-07-01
Oil extraction represents an important investment and the control of a rational exploitation of a field means mastering various scientific techniques including the understanding of the dynamics of fluids in place. This thesis presents a theoretical investigation of the dynamic behaviour of an oil reservoir during its exploitation. The study investigated the dynamics of fluid flow patterns in a homogeneous oil reservoir using the Radial Diffusivity Equation (RDE) as well as two phase oil-water flow equations. The RDE model was solved analytically and numerically for pressure using the Constant Terminal Rate Solution (CTRS) and the fully implicit Finite Difference Method (FDM) respectively. The mathematical derivations of the models and their solution procedures were presented to allow for easy utilization of the techniques for reservoir and engineering applications. The study predicted that the initial oil reservoir pressure will be able to do the extraction for a very long time before any other recovery method will be used to aid in the extraction process depending on the rate of production. Reservoir simulation describing a one dimensional radial flow of a compressible fluid in porous media may be adequately performed using ordinary laptop computers as revealed by the study. For the simulation of MATLAB, the case of the Jubilee Fields, Tano Basin was studied, an algorithm was developed for the simulation of pressure in the reservoir. It ensues from the analysis of the plots of pressure vrs time and space that the Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA) was duly followed. The approximate solutions of the analytical and numerical solutions to the Radial Diffusivity Equation (RDE) were in excellent agreement, thus the reservoir simulation model developed can be used to describe typical pressure-time relationships that are used in conventional Pressure Transient Analysis (PTA). The study was extended to two phase oil-water flow in reservoirs. The flow of fluids in multi
Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Bienes-Allas, Ramón
2014-01-01
The SWAT model was applied to the Ompólveda River Basin (Guadalajara, central Spain) to assess the hydrological feasibility of the Pareja Limno-reservoir. A limno-reservoir is a water management infrastructure designed to counteract some negative impacts caused by large reservoirs under Mediterranean climate. Highly detailed inputs were selected to set up the model. Its performance was evaluated by graphical and statistical techniques and compared with the previous knowledge of the basin. An overall good performance was obtained during the calibration and validation periods (monthly and annual NSE values of 0.67 and 0.60, respectively, for calibration and 0.70 and 0.83, respectively, for validation). Total discharge was well simulated, and flow components prediction was acceptable. However, the model is not accurate at predicting evapotranspiration. Once evaluated, the model was used to simulate the water discharge into the Pareja Limno-reservoir during 2008 and 2009, establishing a water balance and assessing its hydrologic feasibility. The water balance predicted the absence of surplus during summer (2008 and 2009) and autumn (2009), matching up with the decrease of water level and demonstrating the usefulness of SWAT as a tool to evaluate the hydrologic feasibility of the Pareja Limno-reservoir. Very low discharges from the Ompólveda River after a sequence of normal and dry years are the main factors responsible of this phenomenon, whereas the effect of the wastewater flow redirection in the Pareja village is negligible. These results question the usefulness of the Pareja Limno-reservoir during summer, the most favorable season for recreational activities. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cope, G.
2008-07-15
Tight sand gas plays are low permeability reservoirs that have contributed an output of 5.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year in the United States alone. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation has significant production from thousands of wells in Texas, Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Hydraulic fracturing is the key to successful tight sand production. Production engineers use modelling software to calculate a well stimulation program in which large volumes of water are forced under high pressure in the reservoir, fracturing the rock and creating high permeability conduits for the natural gas to escape. Reservoir engineering researchers at the University of Calgary, led by world expert Tony Settari, have improved traditional software modelling of petroleum reservoirs by combining fracture analysis with geomechanical processes. This expertise has been a valuable asset to Anadarko, as the dynamic aspect can have a significant effect on the reservoir as it is being drilled. The challenges facing reservoir simulation is the high computing time needed for analyzing fluid production based on permeability, porosity, gas and fluid properties along with geomechanical analysis. Another challenge has been acquiring high quality field data. Using Anadarko's field data, the University of Calgary researchers found that water fracturing creates vertical primary fractures, and in some cases secondary fractures which enhance permeability. However, secondary fracturing is not permanent in all wells. The newly coupled geomechanical model makes it possible to model fracture growth more accurately. The Society of Petroleum Engineers recently awarded Settari with an award for distinguished achievement in improving the technique and practice of finding and producing petroleum. 1 fig.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marotz, Brian; Althen, Craig; Gustafson, Daniel
1996-01-01
Hungry Horse and Libby dams have profoundly affected the aquatic ecosystems in two major tributaries of the Columbia River by altering habitat and water quality, and by imposing barriers to fish migration. In 1980, the U.S. Congress passed the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act, designed in part to balance hydropower development with other natural resources in the Columbia System. The Act formed the Northwest Power Planning Council (Council) who developed a program to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife on the Columbia River and its tributaries. Pursuant to the Council`s Fish and Wildlife Program for the Columbia River System (1987), we constructed computer models to simulate the trophic dynamics of the reservoir biota as related to dam operation. Results were used to develop strategies to minimize impacts and enhance the reservoir and riverine fisheries, following program measures 903(a)(1-4) and 903(b)(1-5). Two FORTRAN simulation models were developed for Hungry Horse and Libby reservoirs located in northwestern Montana. The models were designed to generate accurate, short-term predictions specific to two reservoirs and are not directly applicable to other waters. The modeling strategy, however, is portable to other reservoir systems where sufficient data are available. Reservoir operation guidelines were developed to balance fisheries concerns in the headwaters with anadromous species recovery actions in the lower Columbia (Biological Rule Curves). These BRCs were then integrated with power production and flood control to reduce the economic impact of basin-wide fisheries recovery actions. These Integrated Rule Curves (IRCs) were developed simultaneously in the Columbia Basin System Operation Review (SOR), the Council`s phase IV amendment process and recovery actions associated with endangered Columbia Basin fish species.
[Purity Detection Model Update of Maize Seeds Based on Active Learning].
Tang, Jin-ya; Huang, Min; Zhu, Qi-bing
2015-08-01
Seed purity reflects the degree of seed varieties in typical consistent characteristics, so it is great important to improve the reliability and accuracy of seed purity detection to guarantee the quality of seeds. Hyperspectral imaging can reflect the internal and external characteristics of seeds at the same time, which has been widely used in nondestructive detection of agricultural products. The essence of nondestructive detection of agricultural products using hyperspectral imaging technique is to establish the mathematical model between the spectral information and the quality of agricultural products. Since the spectral information is easily affected by the sample growth environment, the stability and generalization of model would weaken when the test samples harvested from different origin and year. Active learning algorithm was investigated to add representative samples to expand the sample space for the original model, so as to implement the rapid update of the model's ability. Random selection (RS) and Kennard-Stone algorithm (KS) were performed to compare the model update effect with active learning algorithm. The experimental results indicated that in the division of different proportion of sample set (1:1, 3:1, 4:1), the updated purity detection model for maize seeds from 2010 year which was added 40 samples selected by active learning algorithm from 2011 year increased the prediction accuracy for 2011 new samples from 47%, 33.75%, 49% to 98.89%, 98.33%, 98.33%. For the updated purity detection model of 2011 year, its prediction accuracy for 2010 new samples increased by 50.83%, 54.58%, 53.75% to 94.57%, 94.02%, 94.57% after adding 56 new samples from 2010 year. Meanwhile the effect of model updated by active learning algorithm was better than that of RS and KS. Therefore, the update for purity detection model of maize seeds is feasible by active learning algorithm.
Lazy Updating of hubs can enable more realistic models by speeding up stochastic simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ehlert, Kurt; Loewe, Laurence
2014-01-01
To respect the nature of discrete parts in a system, stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) must update for each action (i) all part counts and (ii) each action's probability of occurring next and its timing. This makes it expensive to simulate biological networks with well-connected “hubs” such as ATP that affect many actions. Temperature and volume also affect many actions and may be changed significantly in small steps by the network itself during fever and cell growth, respectively. Such trends matter for evolutionary questions, as cell volume determines doubling times and fever may affect survival, both key traits for biological evolution. Yet simulations often ignore such trends and assume constant environments to avoid many costly probability updates. Such computational convenience precludes analyses of important aspects of evolution. Here we present “Lazy Updating,” an add-on for SSAs designed to reduce the cost of simulating hubs. When a hub changes, Lazy Updating postpones all probability updates for reactions depending on this hub, until a threshold is crossed. Speedup is substantial if most computing time is spent on such updates. We implemented Lazy Updating for the Sorting Direct Method and it is easily integrated into other SSAs such as Gillespie's Direct Method or the Next Reaction Method. Testing on several toy models and a cellular metabolism model showed >10× faster simulations for its use-cases—with a small loss of accuracy. Thus we see Lazy Updating as a valuable tool for some special but important simulation problems that are difficult to address efficiently otherwise
Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan
2012-01-01
Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahmadi, Rouhollah; Khamehchi, Ehsan
2013-01-01
Conditioning stochastic simulations are very important in many geostatistical applications that call for the introduction of nonlinear and multiple-point data in reservoir modeling. Here, a new methodology is proposed for the incorporation of different data types into multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulation frameworks. Unlike the previous techniques that call for an approximate forward model (filter) for integration of secondary data into geologically constructed models, the proposed approach develops an intermediate space where all the primary and secondary data are easily mapped onto. Definition of the intermediate space, as may be achieved via application of artificial intelligence tools like neural networks and fuzzy inference systems, eliminates the need for using filters as in previous techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach in conditioning MPS simulations to static and geologic data is verified by modeling a real example of discrete fracture networks using conventional well-log data. The training patterns are well reproduced in the realizations, while the model is also consistent with the map of secondary data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ahmadi, Rouhollah, E-mail: rouhollahahmadi@yahoo.com [Amirkabir University of Technology, PhD Student at Reservoir Engineering, Department of Petroleum Engineering (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Khamehchi, Ehsan [Amirkabir University of Technology, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2013-12-15
Conditioning stochastic simulations are very important in many geostatistical applications that call for the introduction of nonlinear and multiple-point data in reservoir modeling. Here, a new methodology is proposed for the incorporation of different data types into multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulation frameworks. Unlike the previous techniques that call for an approximate forward model (filter) for integration of secondary data into geologically constructed models, the proposed approach develops an intermediate space where all the primary and secondary data are easily mapped onto. Definition of the intermediate space, as may be achieved via application of artificial intelligence tools like neural networks and fuzzy inference systems, eliminates the need for using filters as in previous techniques. The applicability of the proposed approach in conditioning MPS simulations to static and geologic data is verified by modeling a real example of discrete fracture networks using conventional well-log data. The training patterns are well reproduced in the realizations, while the model is also consistent with the map of secondary data.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balashov, Victor N.; Guthrie, George D.; Hakala, J. Alexandra; Lopano, Christina L.; Rimstidt, J. Donald; Brantley, Susan L.
2013-03-01
One idea for mitigating the increase in fossil-fuel generated CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is to inject CO{sub 2} into subsurface saline sandstone reservoirs. To decide whether to try such sequestration at a globally significant scale will require the ability to predict the fate of injected CO{sub 2}. Thus, models are needed to predict the rates and extents of subsurface rock-water-gas interactions. Several reactive transport models for CO{sub 2} sequestration created in the last decade predicted sequestration in sandstone reservoirs of ~17 to ~90 kg CO{sub 2} m{sup -3|. To build confidence in such models, a baseline problem including rock + water chemistry is proposed as the basis for future modeling so that both the models and the parameterizations can be compared systematically. In addition, a reactive diffusion model is used to investigate the fate of injected supercritical CO{sub 2} fluid in the proposed baseline reservoir + brine system. In the baseline problem, injected CO{sub 2} is redistributed from the supercritical (SC) free phase by dissolution into pore brine and by formation of carbonates in the sandstone. The numerical transport model incorporates a full kinetic description of mineral-water reactions under the assumption that transport is by diffusion only. Sensitivity tests were also run to understand which mineral kinetics reactions are important for CO{sub 2} trapping. The diffusion transport model shows that for the first ~20 years after CO{sub 2} diffusion initiates, CO{sub 2} is mostly consumed by dissolution into the brine to form CO{sub 2,aq} (solubility trapping). From 20-200 years, both solubility and mineral trapping are important as calcite precipitation is driven by dissolution of oligoclase. From 200 to 1000 years, mineral trapping is the most important sequestration mechanism, as smectite dissolves and calcite precipitates. Beyond 2000 years, most trapping is due to formation of aqueous HCO{sub 3}{sup -}. Ninety-seven percent of the
Nguyen, L. H.; Wildman, R.
2012-12-01
This study characterizes quantitatively the flow and mixing regimes of a water supply reservoir, while also conducting numerical tracer experiments on different operation scenarios. We investigate the effects of weather events on water quality via storm water inflows. Our study site the Kensico Reservoir, New York, the penultimate reservoir of New York City's water supply, is never filtered and thus dependent on stringent watershed protection. This reservoir must meet federal drinking water standards under changing conditions such as increased suburban, commercial, and highway developments that are much higher than the rest of the watershed. Impacts from these sources on water quality are magnified by minor tributary flows subject to contaminants from development projects as other tributaries providing >99% of water to this reservoir are exceedingly clean due to management practices upstream. These threats, coupled with possible changes in the frequency/intensity of weather events due to climate change, increase the potential for contaminants to enter the reservoir and drinking water intakes. This situation provides us with the unique ability to study the effects of weather events on water quality via insignificant storm water inflows, without influence from the major tributaries due to their pristine water quality characteristics. The concentration of contaminants at the drinking water intake depends partially on transport from their point of entry in the reservoir. Thus, it is crucial to understand water circulation in this reservoir and to estimate residence times and water ages at different locations and under different hydrologic scenarios. We described water age, residence time, thermal structure, and flow dynamics of tributary plumes in Kensico Reservoir during a 22-year simulation period using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2). Our estimates of water age can reach a maximum of ~300 days in deep-reservoir-cells, with
Chahardowli, M.; Bruining, J.
2013-01-01
In fractured reservoirs, much of the oil is stored in low permeable matrix blocks that are surrounded by a high permeability fracture network. Therefore, production from fractured reservoir depends on the transfer between fracture and matrix, which is critically dependent on their interaction.
Chahardowli, M.; Bruining, J.
2013-01-01
In fractured reservoirs, much of the oil is stored in low permeable matrix blocks that are surrounded by a high permeability fracture network. Therefore, production from fractured reservoir depends on the transfer between fracture and matrix, which is critically dependent on their interaction.
A PSO Driven Intelligent Model Updating and Parameter Identification Scheme for Cable-Damper System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danhui Dan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The precise measurement of the cable force is very important for monitoring and evaluating the operation status of cable structures such as cable-stayed bridges. The cable system should be installed with lateral dampers to reduce the vibration, which affects the precise measurement of the cable force and other cable parameters. This paper suggests a cable model updating calculation scheme driven by the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. By establishing a finite element model considering the static geometric nonlinearity and stress-stiffening effect firstly, an automatically finite element method model updating powered by PSO algorithm is proposed, with the aims to identify the cable force and relevant parameters of cable-damper system precisely. Both numerical case studies and full-scale cable tests indicated that, after two rounds of updating process, the algorithm can accurately identify the cable force, moment of inertia, and damping coefficient of the cable-damper system.
A hierarchical updating method for finite element model of airbag buffer system under landing impact
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
He Huan
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose an impact finite element (FE model for an airbag landing buffer system. First, an impact FE model has been formulated for a typical airbag landing buffer system. We use the independence of the structure FE model from the full impact FE model to develop a hierarchical updating scheme for the recovery module FE model and the airbag system FE model. Second, we define impact responses at key points to compare the computational and experimental results to resolve the inconsistency between the experimental data sampling frequency and experimental triggering. To determine the typical characteristics of the impact dynamics response of the airbag landing buffer system, we present the impact response confidence factors (IRCFs to evaluate how consistent the computational and experiment results are. An error function is defined between the experimental and computational results at key points of the impact response (KPIR to serve as a modified objective function. A radial basis function (RBF is introduced to construct updating variables for a surrogate model for updating the objective function, thereby converting the FE model updating problem to a soluble optimization problem. Finally, the developed method has been validated using an experimental and computational study on the impact dynamics of a classic airbag landing buffer system.
Sequential updating of a new dynamic pharmacokinetic model for caffeine in premature neonates.
Micallef, Sandrine; Amzal, Billy; Bach, Véronique; Chardon, Karen; Tourneux, Pierre; Bois, Frédéric Y
2007-01-01
Caffeine treatment is widely used in nursing care to reduce the risk of apnoea in premature neonates. To check the therapeutic efficacy of the treatment against apnoea, caffeine concentration in blood is an important indicator. The present study was aimed at building a pharmacokinetic model as a basis for a medical decision support tool. In the proposed model, time dependence of physiological parameters is introduced to describe rapid growth of neonates. To take into account the large variability in the population, the pharmacokinetic model is embedded in a population structure. The whole model is inferred within a Bayesian framework. To update caffeine concentration predictions as data of an incoming patient are collected, we propose a fast method that can be used in a medical context. This involves the sequential updating of model parameters (at individual and population levels) via a stochastic particle algorithm. Our model provides better predictions than the ones obtained with models previously published. We show, through an example, that sequential updating improves predictions of caffeine concentration in blood (reduce bias and length of credibility intervals). The update of the pharmacokinetic model using body mass and caffeine concentration data is studied. It shows how informative caffeine concentration data are in contrast to body mass data. This study provides the methodological basis to predict caffeine concentration in blood, after a given treatment if data are collected on the treated neonate.
Update of the ITER MELCOR model for the validation of the Cryostat design
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martínez, M.; Labarta, C.; Terrón, S.; Izquierdo, J.; Perlado, J.M.
2015-07-01
Some transients can compromise the vacuum in the Cryostat of ITER and cause significant loads. A MELCOR model has been updated in order to assess this loads. Transients have been run with this model and its result will be used in the mechanical assessment of the cryostat. (Author)
Adapting to change: The role of the right hemisphere in mental model building and updating.
Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt; Danckert, James
2016-09-01
We recently proposed that the right hemisphere plays a crucial role in the processes underlying mental model building and updating. Here, we review the evidence we and others have garnered to support this novel account of right hemisphere function. We begin by presenting evidence from patient work that suggests a critical role for the right hemisphere in the ability to learn from the statistics in the environment (model building) and adapt to environmental change (model updating). We then provide a review of neuroimaging research that highlights a network of brain regions involved in mental model updating. Next, we outline specific roles for particular regions within the network such that the anterior insula is purported to maintain the current model of the environment, the medial prefrontal cortex determines when to explore new or alternative models, and the inferior parietal lobule represents salient and surprising information with respect to the current model. We conclude by proposing some future directions that address some of the outstanding questions in the field of mental model building and updating. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Finite element model updating of a small steel frame using neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zapico, J L; González, M P; Alonso, R; González-Buelga, A
2008-01-01
This paper presents an experimental and analytical dynamic study of a small-scale steel frame. The experimental model was physically built and dynamically tested on a shaking table in a series of different configurations obtained from the original one by changing the mass and by causing structural damage. Finite element modelling and parameterization with physical meaning is iteratively tried for the original undamaged configuration. The finite element model is updated through a neural network, the natural frequencies of the model being the net input. The updating process is made more accurate and robust by using a regressive procedure, which constitutes an original contribution of this work. A novel simplified analytical model has been developed to evaluate the reduction of bending stiffness of the elements due to damage. The experimental results of the rest of the configurations have been used to validate both the updated finite element model and the analytical one. The statistical properties of the identified modal data are evaluated. From these, the statistical properties and a confidence interval for the estimated model parameters are obtained by using the Latin Hypercube sampling technique. The results obtained are successful: the updated model accurately reproduces the low modes identified experimentally for all configurations, and the statistical study of the transmission of errors yields a narrow confidence interval for all the identified parameters
Muirhead, R W; Monaghan, R M
2012-04-01
Animal agriculture has been identified as an important source of diffuse faecal microbial pollution of water. Our current understanding of the losses of faecal microbes from grazed pasture systems is however poor. To help synthesise our current knowledge, a simple two reservoir model was constructed to represent the faecal and environmental sources of Escherichia coli found in a grazed pastoral system. The size of the faecal reservoir was modelled on a daily basis with inputs from grazing animals, and losses due to die-off of E. coli and decomposition of the faecal material. Estimates were made of transport coefficients of E. coli losses from the two reservoirs. The concentration of E. coli measured in overland flow and artificial drainage from grazed plots, used for calibration of the model, showed a significant (Ppasture systems. Research is needed to understand the behaviour and impact of this environmental reservoir. Scenario analysis using the model indicated that rather than manipulating the faecal material itself post defecation, mitigation options should focus on manipulating grazing management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiyuan Xia
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, many more bridges with extra-width have been needed for vehicle throughput. In order to obtain a precise finite element (FE model of those complex bridge structures, the practical hybrid updating method by integration of Gaussian mutation particle swarm optimization (GMPSO, Kriging meta-model and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS was proposed. By demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the hybrid method through the model updating of a damaged simply supported beam, the proposed method was applied to the model updating of a self-anchored suspension bridge with extra-width which showed great necessity considering the results of ambient vibration test. The results of bridge model updating showed that both of the mode frequencies and shapes had relatively high agreement between the updated model and experimental structure. The successful model updating of this bridge fills in the blanks of model updating of a complex self-anchored suspension bridge. Moreover, the updating process enables other model updating issues for complex bridge structures
Finite element modelling and updating of friction stir welding (FSW joint for vibration analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahari Siti Norazila
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Friction stir welding of aluminium alloys widely used in automotive and aerospace application due to its advanced and lightweight properties. The behaviour of FSW joints plays a significant role in the dynamic characteristic of the structure due to its complexities and uncertainties therefore the representation of an accurate finite element model of these joints become a research issue. In this paper, various finite elements (FE modelling technique for prediction of dynamic properties of sheet metal jointed by friction stir welding will be presented. Firstly, nine set of flat plate with different series of aluminium alloy; AA7075 and AA6061 joined by FSW are used. Nine set of specimen was fabricated using various types of welding parameters. In order to find the most optimum set of FSW plate, the finite element model using equivalence technique was developed and the model validated using experimental modal analysis (EMA on nine set of specimen and finite element analysis (FEA. Three types of modelling were engaged in this study; rigid body element Type 2 (RBE2, bar element (CBAR and spot weld element connector (CWELD. CBAR element was chosen to represent weld model for FSW joints due to its accurate prediction of mode shapes and contains an updating parameter for weld modelling compare to other weld modelling. Model updating was performed to improve correlation between EMA and FEA and before proceeds to updating, sensitivity analysis was done to select the most sensitive updating parameter. After perform model updating, total error of the natural frequencies for CBAR model is improved significantly. Therefore, CBAR element was selected as the most reliable element in FE to represent FSW weld joint.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pruess, K.; Oldenburg, C.; Moridis, G.; Finsterle, S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)
1997-12-31
This paper summarizes recent advances in methods for simulating water and tracer injection, and presents illustrative applications to liquid- and vapor-dominated geothermal reservoirs. High-resolution simulations of water injection into heterogeneous, vertical fractures in superheated vapor zones were performed. Injected water was found to move in dendritic patterns, and to experience stronger lateral flow effects than predicted from homogeneous medium models. Higher-order differencing methods were applied to modeling water and tracer injection into liquid-dominated systems. Conventional upstream weighting techniques were shown to be adequate for predicting the migration of thermal fronts, while higher-order methods give far better accuracy for tracer transport. A new fluid property module for the TOUGH2 simulator is described which allows a more accurate description of geofluids, and includes mineral dissolution and precipitation effects with associated porosity and permeability change. Comparisons between numerical simulation predictions and data for laboratory and field injection experiments are summarized. Enhanced simulation capabilities include a new linear solver package for TOUGH2, and inverse modeling techniques for automatic history matching and optimization.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paulsen, J.E.; Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.
1996-01-01
The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paulsen, J.E. [Rogalandsforskning, Stavanger (Norway); Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.
1996-12-31
The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.
An Updated Site Scale Saturated Zone Ground Water Transport Model For Yucca Mountain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
S. Kelkar; H. Viswanathan; A. Eddebbarrh; M. Ding; P. Reimus; B. Robinson; B. Arnold; A. Meijer
2006-01-01
The Yucca Mountain site scale saturated zone transport model has been revised to incorporate the updated flow model based on a hydrogeologic framework model using the latest lithology data, increased grid resolution that better resolves the geology within the model domain, updated Kd distributions for radionuclides of interest, and updated retardation factor distributions for colloid filtration. The resulting numerical transport model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The transport model results are validated by comparing the model transport pathways with those derived from geochemical data, and by comparing the transit times from the repository footprint to the compliance boundary at the accessible environment with those derived from 14 C-based age estimates. The transport model includes the processes of advection, dispersion, fracture flow, matrix diffusion, sorption, and colloid-facilitated transport. The transport of sorbing radionuclides in the aqueous phase is modeled as a linear, equilibrium process using the Kd model. The colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides is modeled using two approaches: the colloids with irreversibly embedded radionuclides undergo reversible filtration only, while the migration of radionuclides that reversibly sorb to colloids is modeled with modified values for sorption coefficient and matrix diffusion coefficients. Model breakthrough curves for various radionuclides at the compliance boundary are presented along with their sensitivity to various parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weiss, W.W.; Buckley, J.S.; Ouenes, A.
1997-05-01
The goal of this three-year project was to provide a quantitative definition of reservoir heterogeneity. This objective was accomplished through the integration of geologic, geophysical, and engineering databases into a multi-disciplinary understanding of reservoir architecture and associated fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. This interdisciplinary effort integrated geological and geophysical data with engineering and petrophysical results through reservoir simulation to quantify reservoir architecture and the dynamics of fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. An improved reservoir description allows greater accuracy and confidence during simulation and modeling as steps toward gaining greater recovery efficiency from existing reservoirs. A field laboratory, the Sulimar Queen Unit, was available for the field research. Several members of the PRRC staff participated in the development of improved reservoir description by integration of the field and laboratory data as well as in the development of quantitative reservoir models to aid performance predictions. Subcontractors from Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin (UT) collaborated in the research and participated in the design and interpretation of field tests. The three-year project was initiated in September 1993 and led to the development and application of various reservoir description methodologies. A new approach for visualizing production data graphically was developed and implemented on the Internet. Using production data and old gamma rays logs, a black oil reservoir model that honors both primary and secondary performance was developed. The old gamma ray logs were used after applying a resealing technique, which was crucial for the success of the project. In addition to the gamma ray logs, the development of the reservoir model benefitted from an inverse Drill Stem Test (DST) technique which provided initial estimates of the reservoir permeability at different wells.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jieqiong Su
2015-04-01
Full Text Available With decreasing water availability as a result of climate change and human activities, analysis of the influential factors and variation trends of chlorophyll a has become important to prevent reservoir eutrophication and ensure water supply safety. In this paper, a structurally simplified hybrid model of the genetic algorithm (GA and the support vector machine (SVM was developed for the prediction of monthly concentration of chlorophyll a in the Miyun Reservoir of northern China over the period from 2000 to 2010. Based on the influence factor analysis, the four most relevant influence factors of chlorophyll a (i.e., total phosphorus, total nitrogen, permanganate index, and reservoir storage were extracted using the method of feature selection with the GA, which simplified the model structure, making it more practical and efficient for environmental management. The results showed that the developed simplified GA-SVM model could solve nonlinear problems of complex system, and was suitable for the simulation and prediction of chlorophyll a with better performance in accuracy and efficiency in the Miyun Reservoir.
Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.
Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.
2014-12-01
Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load
Pu, Wanli
The Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin is one of the most productive liquid-rich unconventional plays. The Bakken Formation is divided into three members, and the Middle Bakken Member is the primary target for horizontal wellbore landing and hydraulic fracturing because of its better rock properties. Even with this new technology, the primary recovery factor is believed to be only around 10%. This study is to evaluate various gas injection EOR methods to try to improve on that low recovery factor of 10%. In this study, the Elm Coulee Oil Field in the Williston Basin was selected as the area of interest. Static reservoir models featuring the rock property heterogeneity of the Middle Bakken Member were built, and fluid property models were built based on Bakken reservoir fluid sample PVT data. By employing both compositional model simulation and Todd-Longstaff solvent model simulation methods, miscible gas injections were simulated and the simulations speculated that oil recovery increased by 10% to 20% of OOIP in 30 years. The compositional simulations yielded lower oil recovery compared to the solvent model simulations. Compared to the homogeneous model, the reservoir model featuring rock property heterogeneity in the vertical direction resulted in slightly better oil recovery, but with earlier CO2 break-through and larger CO2 production, suggesting that rock property heterogeneity is an important property for modeling because it has a big effect on the simulation results. Long hydraulic fractures shortened CO2 break-through time greatly and increased CO 2 production. Water-alternating-gas injection schemes and injection-alternating-shut-in schemes can provide more options for gas injection EOR projects, especially for gas production management. Compared to CO2 injection, separator gas injection yielded slightly better oil recovery, meaning separator gas could be a good candidate for gas injection EOR; lean gas generated the worst results. Reservoir
Modeling Permeability Alteration in Diatomite Reservoirs During Steam Drive, SUPRI TR-113
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bhat, Suniti Kumar; Kovscek, Anthony R.
1999-08-09
There is an estimated 10 billion barrels of original oil in place (OOIP) in diatomaceous reservoirs in Kern County, California. These reservoirs have low permeability ranging from 0.1 to 10 mD. Injection pressure controlled steam drive has been found to be an effective way to recover oil from these reservoir. However, steam drive in these reservoirs has its own complications. The rock matrix is primarily silica (SiO2). It is a known fact that silica is soluble in hot water and its solubility varies with temperature and pH. Due to this fact, the rock matrix in diatomite may dissolve into the aqueous phase as the temperature at a location increases or it may precipitate from the aqueous phase onto the rock grains as the temperature decreases. Thus, during steam drive silica redistribution will occur in the reservoir along with oil recovery. This silica redistribution causes the permeability and porosity of the reservoir to change. Understanding and quantifying these silica redistribution effects on the reservoir permeability might prove to be a key aspect of designing a steam drive project in these formations.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ernest A. Mancini
2002-09-25
The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project has been reservoir characterization, 3-D modeling and technology transfer. This effort has included six tasks: (1) the study of rockfluid interactions, (2) petrophysical and engineering characterization, (3) data integration, (4) 3-D geologic modeling, (5) 3-D reservoir simulation and (6) technology transfer. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 2. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions is near completion. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and
Self-shielding models of MICROX-2 code: Review and updates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hou, J.; Choi, H.; Ivanov, K.N.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • The MICROX-2 code has been improved to expand its application to advanced reactors. • New fine-group cross section libraries based on ENDF/B-VII have been generated. • Resonance self-shielding and spatial self-shielding models have been improved. • The improvements were assessed by a series of benchmark calculations against MCNPX. - Abstract: The MICROX-2 is a transport theory code that solves for the neutron slowing-down and thermalization equations of a two-region lattice cell. The MICROX-2 code has been updated to expand its application to advanced reactor concepts and fuel cycle simulations, including generation of new fine-group cross section libraries based on ENDF/B-VII. In continuation of previous work, the MICROX-2 methods are reviewed and updated in this study, focusing on its resonance self-shielding and spatial self-shielding models for neutron spectrum calculations. The improvement of self-shielding method was assessed by a series of benchmark calculations against the Monte Carlo code, using homogeneous and heterogeneous pin cell models. The results have shown that the implementation of the updated self-shielding models is correct and the accuracy of physics calculation is improved. Compared to the existing models, the updates reduced the prediction error of the infinite multiplication factor by ∼0.1% and ∼0.2% for the homogeneous and heterogeneous pin cell models, respectively, considered in this study
A State Space Model for Spatial Updating of Remembered Visual Targets during Eye Movements.
Mohsenzadeh, Yalda; Dash, Suryadeep; Crawford, J Douglas
2016-01-01
In the oculomotor system, spatial updating is the ability to aim a saccade toward a remembered visual target position despite intervening eye movements. Although this has been the subject of extensive experimental investigation, there is still no unifying theoretical framework to explain the neural mechanism for this phenomenon, and how it influences visual signals in the brain. Here, we propose a unified state-space model (SSM) to account for the dynamics of spatial updating during two types of eye movement; saccades and smooth pursuit. Our proposed model is a non-linear SSM and implemented through a recurrent radial-basis-function neural network in a dual Extended Kalman filter (EKF) structure. The model parameters and internal states (remembered target position) are estimated sequentially using the EKF method. The proposed model replicates two fundamental experimental observations: continuous gaze-centered updating of visual memory-related activity during smooth pursuit, and predictive remapping of visual memory activity before and during saccades. Moreover, our model makes the new prediction that, when uncertainty of input signals is incorporated in the model, neural population activity and receptive fields expand just before and during saccades. These results suggest that visual remapping and motor updating are part of a common visuomotor mechanism, and that subjective perceptual constancy arises in part from training the visual system on motor tasks.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frost, Michael; Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Stenby, Erling Halfdan
2013-01-01
for critical temperature, pressure and acentric factor.This work presents new phase equilibrium data for binary MEG/reservoir fluid and ternary MEG/water/reservoir fluid systems, where two reservoir fluids from Statoil operated fields are used. The solubility data are reported over a range of temperatures......The complex phase equilibrium between reservoir fluids and associating compounds like water and glycols has become more and more important as the increasing global energy demand pushes the oil industry to use advanced methods to increase oil recovery, such as increasing the use of various chemicals...... to ensure a constant and safe production. The CPA equation of state has been successfully applied in the past to well defined systems and gas condensates, containing associating compounds. It has also been extended to reservoir fluids in presence of water and polar chemicals using modified correlations...
Nagylengyel: an interesting reservoir. [Yugoslovia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dedinszky, J
1971-04-01
The Nagylengyel oil field, discovered in 1951, has oil-producing formations mostly in the Upper-Triassic dolomites, in the Norian-Ractian transition formations, in the Upper-Cretaceous limestones and shales, and in the Miocene. The formation of the reservoir space occurred in many stages. A porous, cavernous fractured reservoir is developed in the Norian principal dolomite. A cavernous fractured reservoir exists in the Cretaceous limestone and in the Cretaceous shale and porous fractured reservoir is developed in the Miocene. The derivation of the model of the reservoir, and the conservative evaluation of the volume of the reservoir made it possible to use secondary recovery.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cid, Fabricio D., E-mail: fabricio.cid@gmail.com [Laboratory of Biology ' Prof. E. Caviedes Codelia' , Facultad de Ciencias Humanas, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Laboratory of Integrative Biology, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research in Biology (IMIBIO-SL), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, San Luis (Argentina); Department of Biochemistry and Biological Sciences, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Anton, Rosa I. [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Pardo, Rafael; Vega, Marisol [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid (Spain); Caviedes-Vidal, Enrique [Laboratory of Biology ' Prof. E. Caviedes Codelia' , Facultad de Ciencias Humanas, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina); Laboratory of Integrative Biology, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research in Biology (IMIBIO-SL), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas, San Luis (Argentina); Department of Biochemistry and Biological Sciences, Facultad de Quimica, Bioquimica y Farmacia, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina)
2011-10-31
Highlights: {yields} Water quality of an Argentinean reservoir has been investigated by N-way PCA. {yields} PARAFAC mode modelled spatial and seasonal variations of water composition. {yields} Two factors related with organic and lead pollution have been identified. {yields} The most polluted areas of the reservoir were located, and polluting sources identified. - Abstract: Temporal and spatial patterns of water quality of an important artificial water reservoir located in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina were investigated using chemometric techniques. Surface water samples were collected at 38 points of the water reservoir during eleven sampling campaigns between October 1998 and June 2000, covering the warm wet season and the cold dry season, and analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), conductivity, pH, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, hardness, bicarbonate, chloride, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, fluoride, sodium, potassium, iron, aluminum, silica, phosphate, sulfide, arsenic, chromium, lead, cadmium, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), viable aerobic bacteria (VAB) and total coliform bacteria (TC). Concentrations of lead, ammonium, nitrite and coliforms were higher than the maximum allowable limits for drinking water in a large proportion of the water samples. To obtain a general representation of the spatial and temporal trends of the water quality parameters at the reservoir, the three-dimensional dataset (sampling sites x parameters x sampling campaigns) has been analyzed by matrix augmentation principal component analysis (MA-PCA) and N-way principal component analysis (N-PCA) using Tucker3 and PARAFAC (Parallel Factor Analysis) models. MA-PCA produced a component accounting for the general behavior of parameters associated with organic pollution. The Tucker3 models were not appropriate for modelling the water quality dataset. The two-factor PARAFAC model provided the best picture to understand the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cid, Fabricio D.; Anton, Rosa I.; Pardo, Rafael; Vega, Marisol; Caviedes-Vidal, Enrique
2011-01-01
Highlights: → Water quality of an Argentinean reservoir has been investigated by N-way PCA. → PARAFAC mode modelled spatial and seasonal variations of water composition. → Two factors related with organic and lead pollution have been identified. → The most polluted areas of the reservoir were located, and polluting sources identified. - Abstract: Temporal and spatial patterns of water quality of an important artificial water reservoir located in the semiarid Midwest of Argentina were investigated using chemometric techniques. Surface water samples were collected at 38 points of the water reservoir during eleven sampling campaigns between October 1998 and June 2000, covering the warm wet season and the cold dry season, and analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), conductivity, pH, ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, hardness, bicarbonate, chloride, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, fluoride, sodium, potassium, iron, aluminum, silica, phosphate, sulfide, arsenic, chromium, lead, cadmium, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), viable aerobic bacteria (VAB) and total coliform bacteria (TC). Concentrations of lead, ammonium, nitrite and coliforms were higher than the maximum allowable limits for drinking water in a large proportion of the water samples. To obtain a general representation of the spatial and temporal trends of the water quality parameters at the reservoir, the three-dimensional dataset (sampling sites x parameters x sampling campaigns) has been analyzed by matrix augmentation principal component analysis (MA-PCA) and N-way principal component analysis (N-PCA) using Tucker3 and PARAFAC (Parallel Factor Analysis) models. MA-PCA produced a component accounting for the general behavior of parameters associated with organic pollution. The Tucker3 models were not appropriate for modelling the water quality dataset. The two-factor PARAFAC model provided the best picture to understand the spatial and
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pan, Lehua [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2017-07-26
Potential CO_{2} leakage through existing open wellbores is one of the most significant hazards that need to be addressed in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) projects. In the framework of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) which requires fast computations for uncertainty analysis, rigorous simulation of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system is not practical. We have developed a 7,200-point look-up table reduced-order model (ROM) for estimating the potential leakage rate up open wellbores in response to CO_{2} injection nearby. The ROM is based on coupled simulations using T2Well/ECO2H which was run repeatedly for representative conditions relevant to NRAP to create a look-up table response-surface ROM. The ROM applies to a wellbore that fully penetrates a 20-m thick reservoir that is used for CO_{2} storage. The radially symmetric reservoir is assumed to have initially uniform pressure, temperature, gas saturation, and brine salinity, and it is assumed these conditions are held constant at the far-field boundary (100 m away from the wellbore). In such a system, the leakage can quickly reach quasi-steady state. The ROM table can be used to estimate both the free-phase CO_{2} and brine leakage rates through an open well as a function of wellbore and reservoir conditions. Results show that injection-induced pressure and reservoir gas saturation play important roles in controlling leakage. Caution must be used in the application of this ROM because well leakage is formally transient and the ROM lookup table was populated using quasi-steady simulation output after 1000 time steps which may correspond to different physical times for the various parameter combinations of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system.
Rockslide and Impulse Wave Modelling in the Vajont Reservoir by DEM-CFD Analyses
Zhao, T.; Utili, S.; Crosta, G. B.
2016-06-01
This paper investigates the generation of hydrodynamic water waves due to rockslides plunging into a water reservoir. Quasi-3D DEM analyses in plane strain by a coupled DEM-CFD code are adopted to simulate the rockslide from its onset to the impact with the still water and the subsequent generation of the wave. The employed numerical tools and upscaling of hydraulic properties allow predicting a physical response in broad agreement with the observations notwithstanding the assumptions and characteristics of the adopted methods. The results obtained by the DEM-CFD coupled approach are compared to those published in the literature and those presented by Crosta et al. (Landslide spreading, impulse waves and modelling of the Vajont rockslide. Rock mechanics, 2014) in a companion paper obtained through an ALE-FEM method. Analyses performed along two cross sections are representative of the limit conditions of the eastern and western slope sectors. The max rockslide average velocity and the water wave velocity reach ca. 22 and 20 m/s, respectively. The maximum computed run up amounts to ca. 120 and 170 m for the eastern and western lobe cross sections, respectively. These values are reasonably similar to those recorded during the event (i.e. ca. 130 and 190 m, respectively). Therefore, the overall study lays out a possible DEM-CFD framework for the modelling of the generation of the hydrodynamic wave due to the impact of a rapid moving rockslide or rock-debris avalanche.
Turnbull, S. J.
2017-12-01
Within the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), reservoirs are typically operated according to a rule curve that specifies target water levels based on the time of year. The rule curve is intended to maximize flood protection by specifying releases of water before the dominant rainfall period for a region. While some operating allowances are permissible, generally the rule curve elevations must be maintained. While this operational approach provides for the required flood control purpose, it may not result in optimal reservoir operations for multi-use impoundments. In the Russian River Valley of California a multi-agency research effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is assessing the application of forecast weather and streamflow predictions to potentially enhance the operation of reservoirs in the watershed. The focus of the study has been on Lake Mendocino, a USACE project important for flood control, water supply, power generation and ecological flows. As part of this effort the Engineer Research and Development Center is assessing the ability of utilizing the physics based, distributed watershed model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to simulate stream flows, reservoir stages, and discharges while being driven by weather forecast products. A key question in this application is the effect of watershed model resolution on forecasted stream flows. To help resolve this question, GSSHA models of multiple grid resolutions, 30, 50, and 270m, were developed for the upper Russian River, which includes Lake Mendocino. The models were derived from common inputs: DEM, soils, land use, stream network, reservoir characteristics, and specified inflows and discharges. All the models were calibrated in both event and continuous simulation mode using measured precipitation gages and then driven with the West-WRF atmospheric model in prediction mode to assess the ability of the model to function in short term, less than one week
Nielsen, Lars Henrik; Sparre Andersen, Morten; Balling, Niels; Boldreel, Lars Ole; Fuchs, Sven; Leth Hjuler, Morten; Kristensen, Lars; Mathiesen, Anders; Olivarius, Mette; Weibel, Rikke
2017-04-01
Knowledge of structural, hydraulic and thermal conditions of the subsurface is fundamental for the planning and use of hydrothermal energy. In the framework of a project under the Danish Research program 'Sustainable Energy and Environment' funded by the 'Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation', fundamental geological and geophysical information of importance for the utilization of geothermal energy in Denmark was compiled, analyzed and re-interpreted. A 3D geological model was constructed and used as structural basis for the development of a national subsurface temperature model. In that frame, all available reflection seismic data were interpreted, quality controlled and integrated to improve the regional structural understanding. The analyses and interpretation of available relevant data (i.e. old and new seismic profiles, core and well-log data, literature data) and a new time-depth conversion allowed a consistent correlation of seismic surfaces for whole Denmark and across tectonic features. On this basis, new topologically consistent depth and thickness maps for 16 geological units from the top pre-Zechstein to the surface were drawn. A new 3D structural geological model was developed with special emphasis on potential geothermal reservoirs. The interpretation of petrophysical data (core data and well-logs) allows to evaluate the hydraulic and thermal properties of potential geothermal reservoirs and to develop a parameterized numerical 3D conductive subsurface temperature model. Reservoir properties and quality were estimated by integrating petrography and diagenesis studies with porosity-permeability data. Detailed interpretation of the reservoir quality of the geological formations was made by estimating net reservoir sandstone thickness based on well-log analysis, determination of mineralogy including sediment provenance analysis, and burial history data. New local surface heat-flow values (range: 64-84 mW/m2) were determined for the Danish
Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington
Mastin, Mark C.
2009-01-01
A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per
Finite element model updating of natural fibre reinforced composite structure in structural dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sani M.S.M.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Model updating is a process of making adjustment of certain parameters of finite element model in order to reduce discrepancy between analytical predictions of finite element (FE and experimental results. Finite element model updating is considered as an important field of study as practical application of finite element method often shows discrepancy to the test result. The aim of this research is to perform model updating procedure on a composite structure as well as trying improving the presumed geometrical and material properties of tested composite structure in finite element prediction. The composite structure concerned in this study is a plate of reinforced kenaf fiber with epoxy. Modal properties (natural frequency, mode shapes, and damping ratio of the kenaf fiber structure will be determined using both experimental modal analysis (EMA and finite element analysis (FEA. In EMA, modal testing will be carried out using impact hammer test while normal mode analysis using FEA will be carried out using MSC. Nastran/Patran software. Correlation of the data will be carried out before optimizing the data from FEA. Several parameters will be considered and selected for the model updating procedure.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rong, Libin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Perelson, Alan [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2008-01-01
HIV-1 eradication from infected individuals has not been achieved with the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for a prolonged period of time. The cellular reservoir for HIV-1 in resting memory CD4{sup +} T cells remains a major obstacle to viral elimination. The reservoir does not decay significantly over long periods of time as is able to release replication competent HIV-1 upon cell activation. Residual ongoing viral replication may likely occur in many patients because low levels of virus can be detected in plasma by sensitive assays and transient episodes of viremia, or HIV-1 blips, are often observed in patients even with successful viral suppression for many years. Here we review our current knowledge of the factors contributing to viral persistence, the latent reservoir, and blips, and mathematical models developed to explore them and their relationships. We show how mathematical modeling can help improve our understanding of HIV-1 dynamics in patients on HAART and the quantitative events underlying HIV-1 latency, reservoir stability, low-level viremic persistence, and emergence of intermittent viral blips. We also discuss treatment implications related to these studies.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Caplan, M. L. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Geological Sciences; Moslow, T. F. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics
1997-12-01
The Peejay Field in northeastern British Columbia was chosen as the site of a detailed study to establish the paleogeography, geological history and genesis of reservoir facies of Middle Triassic strata. A total of 132 cores and well logs from 345 wells were examined to establish the depositional model, to identify the origin of all reservoir facies and to construct an exploration model to improve the prediction of reservoir facies. Results show that the Middle Triassic Halfway Formation of northeastern British Columbia is comprised of at least four west-southwest prograding paleoshorelines. The Lithofacies Succession One quartz-arenites paleoshore faces have less porosity and permeability and are laterally discontinuous. For these reasons shoreface facies have minimal reservoir quality. The tidal inlet fill successions were found to have the greatest observed porosity, permeability and lateral continuity in the Peejay Field. The geometry and orientation of these tidal inlet fill deposits are controlled by tectonic processes. It was suggested that the success of hydrocarbon exploration in this structurally complex area of northeastern British Columbia and west-central Alberta depends on further stratigraphic and sedimentological examination of Middle Triassic strata on a regional scale to obtain a complete understanding of the geological history of the area. 39 refs., 13 refs.
Bao, Kai; Yan, Mi; Allen, Rebecca; Salama, Amgad; Lu, Ligang; Jordan, Kirk E.; Sun, Shuyu; Keyes, David E.
2015-01-01
The present work describes a parallel computational framework for carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration simulation by coupling reservoir simulation and molecular dynamics (MD) on massively parallel high-performance-computing (HPC) systems
Using radar altimetry to update a routing model of the Zambezi River Basin
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Michailovsky, Claire Irene B.; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter
2012-01-01
Satellite radar altimetry allows for the global monitoring of lakes and river levels. However, the widespread use of altimetry for hydrological studies is limited by the coarse temporal and spatial resolution provided by current altimetric missions and the fact that discharge rather than level...... is needed for hydrological applications. To overcome these limitations, altimetry river levels can be combined with hydrological modeling in a dataassimilation framework. This study focuses on the updating of a river routing model of the Zambezi using river levels from radar altimetry. A hydrological model...... of the basin was built to simulate the land phase of the water cycle and produce inflows to a Muskingum routing model. River altimetry from the ENVISAT mission was then used to update the storages in the reaches of the Muskingum model using the Extended Kalman Filter. The method showed improvements in modeled...
The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California
Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.
2015-01-01
The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.
The internal wave field in Sau reservoir : Observation and modeling of a third vertical mode
Vidal Hurtado, Javier; Casamitjana, Xavier; Colomer, Jordi; Serra Putellas, Teresa
2005-01-01
Water withdrawal from Mediterranean reservoirs in summer is usually very high. Because of this, stratification is often continuous and far from the typical two-layered structure, favoring the excitation of higher vertical modes. The analysis of wind, temperature, and current data from Sau reservoir (Spain) shows that the third vertical mode of the internal seiche (baroclinic mode) dominated the internal wave field at the beginning of September 2003. We used a continuous stratification two-dim...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soto, R; Wu, Ch. H; Bubela, A M
1999-01-01
This work introduces a novel methodology to improve reservoir characterization models. In this methodology we integrated multivariate statistical analyses, and neural network models for forecasting the infill drilling ultimate oil recovery from reservoirs in San Andres and Clearfork carbonate formations in west Texas. Development of the oil recovery forecast models help us to understand the relative importance of dominant reservoir characteristics and operational variables, reproduce recoveries for units included in the database, forecast recoveries for possible new units in similar geological setting, and make operational (infill drilling) decisions. The variety of applications demands the creation of multiple recovery forecast models. We have developed intelligent software (Soto, 1998), oilfield intelligence (01), as an engineering tool to improve the characterization of oil and gas reservoirs. 01 integrates neural networks and multivariate statistical analysis. It is composed of five main subsystems: data input, preprocessing, architecture design, graphic design, and inference engine modules. One of the challenges in this research was to identify the dominant and the optimum number of independent variables. The variables include porosity, permeability, water saturation, depth, area, net thickness, gross thickness, formation volume factor, pressure, viscosity, API gravity, number of wells in initial water flooding, number of wells for primary recovery, number of infill wells over the initial water flooding, PRUR, IWUR, and IDUR. Multivariate principal component analysis is used to identify the dominant and the optimum number of independent variables. We compared the results from neural network models with the non-parametric approach. The advantage of the non-parametric regression is that it is easy to use. The disadvantage is that it retains a large variance of forecast results for a particular data set. We also used neural network concepts to develop recovery
Evaluation of Lower East Fork Poplar Creek Mercury Sources - Model Update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ketelle, Richard [East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brandt, Craig C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Peterson, Mark J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bevelhimer, Mark S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Watson, David B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brooks, Scott C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mayes, Melanie [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeRolph, Christopher R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dickson, Johnbull O. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Olsen, Todd A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2017-08-01
The purpose of this report is to assess new data that has become available and provide an update to the evaluations and modeling presented in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Technical Manuscript Evaluation of lower East Fork Poplar Creek (LEFPC) Mercury Sources (Watson et al., 2016). Primary sources of field and laboratory data for this update include multiple US Department of Energy (DOE) programs including Environmental Management (EM; e.g., Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program, Mercury Remediation Technology Development [TD], and Applied Field Research Initiative), Office of Science (Mercury Science Focus Areas [SFA] project), and the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) Compliance Department.
Impact of time displaced precipitation estimates for on-line updated models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2012-01-01
When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements the requirements to the precipitation estimates change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time where the rain intensity hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borup, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Borup, Morten
2013-01-01
When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tchamen, G.W.; Gaucher, J. [Hydro-Quebec Production, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Direction Barrage et Environnement, Unite Barrages et Hydraulique
2010-08-15
Owners and operators of high capacity dams in Quebec have a legal obligation to conduct dam break analysis for each of their dams in order to ensure public safety. This paper described traditional hydraulic methodologies and models used to perform dam break analyses. In particular, it examined the influence of the reservoir drawdown submodel on the numerical results of a dam break analysis. Numerical techniques from the field of fluid mechanics and aerodynamics have provided the basis for developing effective hydrodynamic codes that reduce the level of uncertainties associated with dam-break analysis. A static representation that considers the storage curve was compared with a dynamic representation based on Saint-Venant equations and the real bathymetry of the reservoir. The comparison was based on breach of reservoir, maximum water level, flooded area, and wave arrival time in the valley downstream. The study showed that the greatest difference in attained water level was in the vicinity of the dam, and the difference decreased as the distance from the reservoir increased. The analysis showed that the static representation overestimated the maximum depth and inundated area by as much as 20 percent. This overestimation can be reduced by 30 to 40 percent by using dynamic representation. A dynamic model based on a synthetic trapezoidal reconstruction of the storage curve was used, given the lack of bathymetric data for the reservoir. It was concluded that this model can significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with the static model. 7 refs., 9 tabs., 7 figs.
Analysis and Modelling of Taste and Odour Events in a Shallow Subtropical Reservoir
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edoardo Bertone
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Understanding and predicting Taste and Odour events is as difficult as critical for drinking water treatment plants. Following a number of events in recent years, a comprehensive statistical analysis of data from Lake Tingalpa (Queensland, Australia was conducted. Historical manual sampling data, as well as data remotely collected by a vertical profiler, were collected; regression analysis and self-organising maps were the used to determine correlations between Taste and Odour compounds and potential input variables. Results showed that the predominant Taste and Odour compound was geosmin. Although one of the main predictors was the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, it was noticed that the cyanobacteria species was also critical. Additionally, water temperature, reservoir volume and oxidised nitrogen availability, were key inputs determining the occurrence and magnitude of the geosmin peak events. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, a predictive regression model was developed to provide indications on the potential occurrence, and magnitude, of peaks in geosmin concentration. Additionally, it was found that the blue green algae probe of the lake’s vertical profiler has the potential to be used as one of the inputs for an automated geosmin early warning system.
Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue
2014-01-01
Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend - surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography. PMID:25409467
Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue
2014-01-01
Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend-surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar
2005-01-01
While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies
Modeling Net Land Occupation of Hydropower Reservoirs in Norway for Use in Life Cycle Assessment.
Dorber, Martin; May, Roel; Verones, Francesca
2018-02-20
Increasing hydropower electricity production constitutes a unique opportunity to mitigate climate change impacts. However, hydropower electricity production also impacts aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity through freshwater habitat alteration, water quality degradation, and land use and land use change (LULUC). Today, no operational model exists that covers any of these cause-effect pathways within life cycle assessment (LCA). This paper contributes to the assessment of LULUC impacts of hydropower electricity production in Norway in LCA. We quantified the inundated land area associated with 107 hydropower reservoirs with remote sensing data and related it to yearly electricity production. Therewith, we calculated an average net land occupation of 0.027 m 2 ·yr/kWh of Norwegian storage hydropower plants for the life cycle inventory. Further, we calculated an adjusted average land occupation of 0.007 m 2 ·yr/kWh, accounting for an underestimation of water area in the performed maximum likelihood classification. The calculated land occupation values are the basis to support the development of methods for assessing the land occupation impacts of hydropower on biodiversity in LCA at a damage level.
Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.
Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo
2013-01-01
To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.
Kim, J.; Sonnenthal, E. L.; Rutqvist, J.
2011-12-01
Rigorous modeling of coupling between fluid, heat, and geomechanics (thermo-poro-mechanics), in fractured porous media is one of the important and difficult topics in geothermal reservoir simulation, because the physics are highly nonlinear and strongly coupled. Coupled fluid/heat flow and geomechanics are investigated using the multiple interacting continua (MINC) method as applied to naturally fractured media. In this study, we generalize constitutive relations for the isothermal elastic dual porosity model proposed by Berryman (2002) to those for the non-isothermal elastic/elastoplastic multiple porosity model, and derive the coupling coefficients of coupled fluid/heat flow and geomechanics and constraints of the coefficients. When the off-diagonal terms of the total compressibility matrix for the flow problem are zero, the upscaled drained bulk modulus for geomechanics becomes the harmonic average of drained bulk moduli of the multiple continua. In this case, the drained elastic/elastoplastic moduli for mechanics are determined by a combination of the drained moduli and volume fractions in multiple porosity materials. We also determine a relation between local strains of all multiple porosity materials in a gridblock and the global strain of the gridblock, from which we can track local and global elastic/plastic variables. For elastoplasticity, the return mapping is performed for all multiple porosity materials in the gridblock. For numerical implementation, we employ and extend the fixed-stress sequential method of the single porosity model to coupled fluid/heat flow and geomechanics in multiple porosity systems, because it provides numerical stability and high accuracy. This sequential scheme can be easily implemented by using a porosity function and its corresponding porosity correction, making use of the existing robust flow and geomechanics simulators. We implemented the proposed modeling and numerical algorithm to the reaction transport simulator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Yang; Xu Dejian; Li Yan; Duan Zhongdong
2011-01-01
As a novel updating technique, cross-model cross-mode (CMCM) method possesses a high efficiency and capability of flexible selecting updating parameters. However, the success of this method depends on the accuracy of measured modal shapes. Usually, the measured modal shapes are inaccurate since many kinds of measured noises are inevitable. Furthermore, the complete testing modal shapes are required by CMCM method so that the calculating errors may be introduced into the measured modal shapes by conducting the modal expansion or model reduction technique. Therefore, this algorithm is faced with the challenge of updating the finite element (FE) model of practical complex structures. In this study, the fuzzy CMCM method is proposed in order to weaken the effect of errors of the measured modal shapes on the updated results. Then two simulated examples are applied to compare the performance of the fuzzy CMCM method with the CMCM method. The test results show that proposed method is more promising to update the FE model of practical structures than CMCM method.
Andersen, N. L.; Dufek, J.; Singer, B. S.
2017-12-01
Magma reservoirs in the middle to upper crust are though to accumulate incrementally over 104 -105 years. Coupled crystallization ages and compositions of zircon are a potentially powerful tracer of reservoir growth and magma evolution. However, complex age distributions and disequilibrium trace element partitioning complicate the interpretation of the zircon record in terms of magmatic processes. In order to make quantitative predictions of the effects of magmatic processes that contribute reservoir growth and evolution—such as cooling and crystallization, magma recharge and mixing, and rejuvenation and remelting of cumulate-rich reservoir margins—we develop a model of zircon saturation and growth within a numerical framework of coupled thermal transfer, phase equilibrium, and magma dynamics. We apply this model to the Laguna del Maule volcanic field (LdM), located in central Chile. LdM has erupted at least 40 km3 of rhyolite from 36 vents distributed within a 250 km2 lake basin. Ongoing unrest demonstrates the large, silicic magma system beneath LdM remains active to this day. Zircon from rhyolite erupted between c. 23 and 1.8 ka produce a continuous distribution of 230Th-238U ages ranging from eruption to 40 ka, as well as less common crystal domains up to 165 ka and rare xenocrysts. Zircon trace element compositions fingerprint compositionally distinct reservoirs that grew within the larger magma system. Despite the dominantly continuous distributions of ages, many crystals are characterized by volumetrically substantial, trace element enriched domains consistent with rapid crystal growth. We utilize numerical simulations to assess the magmatic conditions required to catalyze these "blooms" of crystallization and the magma dynamics that contributed to the assembly of the LdM magma system.
Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin
Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.
Near-Source Modeling Updates: Building Downwash & Near-Road
The presentation describes recent research efforts in near-source model development focusing on building downwash and near-road barriers. The building downwash section summarizes a recent wind tunnel study, ongoing computational fluid dynamics simulations and efforts to improve ...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Johnston, Henry [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wang, Cong [Colorado School of Mines; Winterfeld, Philip [Colorado School of Mines; Wu, Yu-Shu [Colorado School of Mines
2018-02-14
An efficient modeling approach is described for incorporating arbitrary 3D, discrete fractures, such as hydraulic fractures or faults, into modeling fracture-dominated fluid flow and heat transfer in fractured geothermal reservoirs. This technique allows 3D discrete fractures to be discretized independently from surrounding rock volume and inserted explicitly into a primary fracture/matrix grid, generated without including 3D discrete fractures in prior. An effective computational algorithm is developed to discretize these 3D discrete fractures and construct local connections between 3D fractures and fracture/matrix grid blocks of representing the surrounding rock volume. The constructed gridding information on 3D fractures is then added to the primary grid. This embedded fracture modeling approach can be directly implemented into a developed geothermal reservoir simulator via the integral finite difference (IFD) method or with TOUGH2 technology This embedded fracture modeling approach is very promising and computationally efficient to handle realistic 3D discrete fractures with complicated geometries, connections, and spatial distributions. Compared with other fracture modeling approaches, it avoids cumbersome 3D unstructured, local refining procedures, and increases computational efficiency by simplifying Jacobian matrix size and sparsity, while keeps sufficient accuracy. Several numeral simulations are present to demonstrate the utility and robustness of the proposed technique. Our numerical experiments show that this approach captures all the key patterns about fluid flow and heat transfer dominated by fractures in these cases. Thus, this approach is readily available to simulation of fractured geothermal reservoirs with both artificial and natural fractures.
Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Bartkow, Michael; Swanepoel, Annelie; Cao, Hongqing
2017-11-01
An early warning scheme is proposed that runs ensembles of inferential models for predicting the cyanobacterial population dynamics and cyanotoxin concentrations in drinking water reservoirs on a diel basis driven by in situ sonde water quality data. When the 10- to 30-day-ahead predicted concentrations of cyanobacteria cells or cyanotoxins exceed pre-defined limit values, an early warning automatically activates an action plan considering in-lake control, e.g. intermittent mixing and ad hoc water treatment in water works, respectively. Case studies of the sub-tropical Lake Wivenhoe (Australia) and the Mediterranean Vaal Reservoir (South Africa) demonstrate that ensembles of inferential models developed by the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA are capable of up to 30days forecasts of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins using data collected in situ. The resulting models for Dolicospermum circinale displayed validity for up to 10days ahead, whilst concentrations of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and microcystins were successfully predicted up to 30days ahead. Implementing the proposed scheme for drinking water reservoirs enhances current water quality monitoring practices by solely utilising in situ monitoring data, in addition to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxin measurements. Access to routinely measured cyanotoxin data allows for development of models that predict explicitly cyanotoxin concentrations that avoid to inadvertently model and predict non-toxic cyanobacterial strains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Chenghua, Ou; Chaochun, Li; Siyuan, Huang; Sheng, James J.; Yuan, Xu
2017-12-01
As the platform-based horizontal well production mode has been widely applied in petroleum industry, building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using horizontal well stratigraphic correlation has become very important. Horizontal wells usually extend between the upper and bottom boundaries of the target formation, with limited penetration points. Using these limited penetration points to conduct well deviation correction means the formation depth information obtained is not accurate, which makes it hard to build a fine structure model. In order to solve this problem, a method of fine reservoir structure modeling, based on 3D visualized stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells, is proposed. This method can increase the accuracy when estimating the depth of the penetration points, and can also effectively predict the top and bottom interfaces in the horizontal penetrating section. Moreover, this method will greatly increase not only the number of points of depth data available, but also the accuracy of these data, which achieves the goal of building a reliable fine reservoir structure model by using the stratigraphic correlation among horizontal wells. Using this method, four 3D fine structure layer models have been successfully built of a specimen shale gas field with platform-based horizontal well production mode. The shale gas field is located to the east of Sichuan Basin, China; the successful application of the method has proven its feasibility and reliability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Wang
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The water leak-off during hydraulic fracturing in shale gas reservoirs is a complicated transport behavior involving thermal (T, hydrodynamic (H, mechanical (M and chemical (C processes. Although many leak-off models have been published, none of the models fully coupled the transient fluid flow modeling with heat transfer, chemical-potential equilibrium and natural-fracture dilation phenomena. In this paper, a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC model based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics, hydrodynamics, thermo-poroelastic rock mechanics, and non-isothermal chemical-potential equations is presented to simulate the water leak-off process in shale gas reservoirs. The THMC model takes into account a triple-porosity medium, which includes hydraulic fractures, natural fractures and shale matrix. The leak-off simulation with the THMC model involves all the important processes in this triple-porosity medium, including: (1 water transport driven by hydraulic, capillary, chemical and thermal osmotic convections; (2 gas transport induced by both hydraulic pressure driven convection and adsorption; (3 heat transport driven by thermal convection and conduction; and (4 natural-fracture dilation considered as a thermo-poroelastic rock deformation. The fluid and heat transport, coupled with rock deformation, are described by a set of partial differential equations resulting from the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy. The semi-implicit finite-difference algorithm is proposed to solve these equations. The evolution of pressure, temperature, saturation and salinity profiles of hydraulic fractures, natural fractures and matrix is calculated, revealing the multi-field coupled water leak-off process in shale gas reservoirs. The influences of hydraulic pressure, natural-fracture dilation, chemical osmosis and thermal osmosis on water leak-off are investigated. Results from this study are expected to provide a better understanding of the
Updating of a finite element model of the Cruas 2 cooling tower
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billet, L.
1994-03-01
A method based on modal analysis and inversion of a dynamic FEM model is used to detect changes in the dynamic behavior of nuclear plant cooling towers. Prior to detection, it is necessary to build a representative model of the structure. In this paper are given details about the CRUAS N. 2 cooling tower modelling and the updating procedure used to match the model to on-site measurements. First, were reviewed previous numerical and experimental studies on cooling towers vibrations. We found that the first eigenfrequencies of cooling towers are very sensitive to boundary conditions at the top and the bottom of the structure. Then, we built a beam and plate FEM model of the CRUAS N. 2 cooling tower. The first calculated modes were located in the proper frequency band (0.9 Hz - 1.30 Hz) but not distributed according to the experimental order. We decided to update the numerical model with MADMACS, an updating model software. It was necessary to: - decrease the shell stiffness by 30%; - increase the top ring stiffness by 300%; - modify the boundary conditions at the bottom by taking into account the soil impedance. In order to obtain a difference between the measured and the corresponding calculated frequencies less than 1%. The model was then judged to be realistic enough. (author). 23 figs., 13 refs., 1 annex
Reservoir Engineering Management Program
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Howard, J.H.; Schwarz, W.J.
1977-12-14
The Reservoir Engineering Management Program being conducted at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory includes two major tasks: 1) the continuation of support to geothermal reservoir engineering related work, started under the NSF-RANN program and transferred to ERDA at the time of its formation; 2) the development and subsequent implementation of a broad plan for support of research in topics related to the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs. This plan is now known as the GREMP plan. Both the NSF-RANN legacies and GREMP are in direct support of the DOE/DGE mission in general and the goals of the Resource and Technology/Resource Exploitation and Assessment Branch in particular. These goals are to determine the magnitude and distribution of geothermal resources and reduce risk in their exploitation through improved understanding of generically different reservoir types. These goals are to be accomplished by: 1) the creation of a large data base about geothermal reservoirs, 2) improved tools and methods for gathering data on geothermal reservoirs, and 3) modeling of reservoirs and utilization options. The NSF legacies are more research and training oriented, and the GREMP is geared primarily to the practical development of the geothermal reservoirs. 2 tabs., 3 figs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
sadegh sadeghitabas
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Multi-objective problems rarely ever provide a single optimal solution, rather they yield an optimal set of outputs (Pareto fronts. Solving these problems was previously accomplished by using some simplifier methods such as the weighting coefficient method used for converting a multi-objective problem to a single objective function. However, such robust tools as multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithms have been recently developed for solving these problems. The hedging model is one of the classic problems for reservoir operation that is generally employed for mitigating drought impacts in water resources management. According to this method, although it is possible to supply the total planned demands, only portions of the demands are met to save water by allowing small deficits in the current conditions in order to avoid or reduce severe deficits in future. The approach heavily depends on economic and social considerations. In the present study, the meta-heuristic algorithms of NSGA-II, MOPSO, SPEA-II, and AMALGAM are used toward the multi-objective optimization of the hedging model. For this purpose, the rationing factors involved in Taleghan dam operation are optimized over a 35-year statistical period of inflow. There are two objective functions: a minimizing the modified shortage index, and b maximizing the reliability index (i.e., two opposite objectives. The results show that the above algorithms are applicable to a wide range of optimal solutions. Among the algorithms, AMALGAM is found to produce a better Pareto front for the values of the objective function, indicating its more satisfactory performance.
Status Update: Modeling Energy Balance in NIF Hohlraums
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jones, O. S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2015-07-22
We have developed a standardized methodology to model hohlraum drive in NIF experiments. We compare simulation results to experiments by 1) comparing hohlraum xray fluxes and 2) comparing capsule metrics, such as bang times. Long-pulse, high gas-fill hohlraums require a 20-28% reduction in simulated drive and inclusion of ~15% backscatter to match experiment through (1) and (2). Short-pulse, low fill or near-vacuum hohlraums require a 10% reduction in simulated drive to match experiment through (2); no reduction through (1). Ongoing work focuses on physical model modifications to improve these matches.
Ampomah, W.; Balch, R. S.; Cather, M.; Dai, Z.
2017-12-01
We present a performance assessment methodology and storage potential for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in partially depleted reservoirs. A three dimensional heterogeneous reservoir model was developed based on geological, geophysics and engineering data from Farnsworth field Unit (FWU). The model aided in improved characterization of prominent rock properties within the Pennsylvanian aged Morrow sandstone reservoir. Seismic attributes illuminated previously unknown faults and structural elements within the field. A laboratory fluid analysis was tuned to an equation of state and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). Datasets including net-to-gross ratio, volume of shale, permeability, and burial history were used to model initial fault transmissibility based on Sperivick model. An improved history match of primary and secondary recovery was performed to set the basis for a CO2 flood study. The performance of the current CO2 miscible flood patterns was subsequently calibrated to historical production and injection data. Several prediction models were constructed to study the effect of recycling, addition of wells and /or new patterns, water alternating gas (WAG) cycles and optimum amount of CO2 purchase on incremental oil production and CO2 storage in the FWU. The history matching study successfully validated the presence of the previously undetected faults within FWU that were seen in the seismic survey. The analysis of the various prediction scenarios showed that recycling a high percentage of produced gas, addition of new wells and a gradual reduction in CO2 purchase after several years of operation would be the best approach to ensure a high percentage of recoverable incremental oil and sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 within the Morrow reservoir. Larger percentage of stored CO2 were dissolved in residual oil and less amount existed as supercritical free CO2. The geomechanical analysis on the caprock proved to an
Unconventional Tight Reservoirs Characterization with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance
Santiago, C. J. S.; Solatpour, R.; Kantzas, A.
2017-12-01
The increase in tight reservoir exploitation projects causes producing many papers each year on new, modern, and modified methods and techniques on estimating characteristics of these reservoirs. The most ambiguous of all basic reservoir property estimations deals with permeability. One of the logging methods that is advertised to predict permeability but is always met by skepticism is Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR). The ability of NMR to differentiate between bound and movable fluids and providing porosity increased the capability of NMR as a permeability prediction technique. This leads to a multitude of publications and the motivation of a review paper on this subject by Babadagli et al. (2002). The first part of this presentation is dedicated to an extensive review of the existing correlation models for NMR based estimates of tight reservoir permeability to update this topic. On the second part, the collected literature information is used to analyze new experimental data. The data are collected from tight reservoirs from Canada, the Middle East, and China. A case study is created to apply NMR measurement in the prediction of reservoir characterization parameters such as porosity, permeability, cut-offs, irreducible saturations etc. Moreover, permeability correlations are utilized to predict permeability. NMR experiments were conducted on water saturated cores. NMR T2 relaxation times were measured. NMR porosity, the geometric mean relaxation time (T2gm), Irreducible Bulk Volume (BVI), and Movable Bulk Volume (BVM) were calculated. The correlation coefficients were computed based on multiple regression analysis. Results are cross plots of NMR permeability versus the independently measured Klinkenberg corrected permeability. More complicated equations are discussed. Error analysis of models is presented and compared. This presentation is beneficial in understanding existing tight reservoir permeability models. The results can be used as a guide for choosing
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gaiffe, St
2000-03-23
In this thesis, we are interested in the modeling of fluid flow through porous media with 2-D and 3-D unstructured meshes, and in the use of domain decomposition methods. The behavior of flow through porous media is strongly influenced by heterogeneities: either large-scale lithological discontinuities or quite localized phenomena such as fluid flow in the neighbourhood of wells. In these two typical cases, an accurate consideration of the singularities requires the use of adapted meshes. After having shown the limits of classic meshes we present the future prospects offered by hybrid and flexible meshes. Next, we consider the generalization possibilities of the numerical schemes traditionally used in reservoir simulation and we draw two available approaches: mixed finite elements and U-finite volumes. The investigated phenomena being also characterized by different time-scales, special treatments in terms of time discretization on various parts of the domain are required. We think that the combination of domain decomposition methods with operator splitting techniques may provide a promising approach to obtain high flexibility for a local tune-steps management. Consequently, we develop a new numerical scheme for linear parabolic equations which allows to get a higher flexibility in the local space and time steps management. To conclude, a priori estimates and error estimates on the two variables of interest, namely the pressure and the velocity are proposed. (author)
An updated summary of MATHEW/ADPIC model evaluation studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foster, K.T.; Dickerson, M.H.
1990-05-01
This paper summarizes the major model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC atmospheric transport and diffusion models used by the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability. These studies have taken place over the last 15 years and involve field tracer releases influenced by a variety of meteorological and topographical conditions. Neutrally buoyant tracers released both as surface and elevated point sources, as well as material dispersed by explosive, thermally bouyant release mechanisms have been studied. Results from these studies show that the MATHEW/ADPIC models estimate the tracer air concentrations to within a factor of two of the measured values 20% to 50% of the time, and within a factor of five of the measurements 35% to 85% of the time depending on the complexity of the meteorology and terrain, and the release height of the tracer. Comparisons of model estimates to peak downwind deposition and air concentration measurements from explosive releases are shown to be generally within a factor of two to three. 24 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs
General equilibrium basic needs policy model, (updating part).
Kouwenaar A
1985-01-01
ILO pub-WEP pub-PREALC pub. Working paper, econometric model for the assessment of structural change affecting development planning for basic needs satisfaction in Ecuador - considers population growth, family size (households), labour force participation, labour supply, wages, income distribution, profit rates, capital ownership, etc.; examines nutrition, education and health as factors influencing productivity. Diagram, graph, references, statistical tables.
Recent Updates to the GEOS-5 Linear Model
Holdaway, Dan; Kim, Jong G.; Errico, Ron; Gelaro, Ronald; Mahajan, Rahul
2014-01-01
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is close to having a working 4DVAR system and has developed a linearized version of GEOS-5.This talk outlines a series of improvements made to the linearized dynamics, physics and trajectory.Of particular interest is the development of linearized cloud microphysics, which provides the framework for 'all-sky' data assimilation.
Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes
Stahl. H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda
2011-01-01
Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost models
Hydropower reservoirs: cytotoxic and genotoxic assessment using the Allium cepa root model.
Rambo, Cassiano Lazarotto; Zanotelli, Patrícia; Dalegrave, Daniela; De Nez, Dinara; Szczepanik, Jozimar; Carazek, Fábio; Franscescon, Francini; Rosemberg, Denis Broock; Siebel, Anna Maria; Magro, Jacir Dal
2017-03-01
Hydropower offers a reliable source of electricity in several countries, and Brazil supplies its energy needs almost entirely through hydropower plants. Nevertheless, hydropower plants comprise large buildings and water reservoirs and dams, resulting in huge ecological disruptions. Here, we analyzed the impact of four hydropower reservoirs construction in metals and pesticides incidence and the cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of sediment elutriate of rivers from southern Brazil. Our analyses have evidenced the elevated incidence of different metals (lead, iron, cadmium, and chrome) and pesticides (methyl parathion, atrazine, and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid). We showed that Allium cepa exposed to sediment elutriates did not change the seed germination rate and mitotic index. However, roots from Allium cepa exposed to reservoirs sediment elutriates showed increased occurrence of chromosomal aberrations and nuclear abnormalities. Therefore, the results obtained in our study indicate that sediment from reservoirs present elevated concentration of metals and pesticides and a significant genotoxic potential. Taken together, our data support that hydropower reservoirs represent an environmental scenario that could impact surrounding wildlife and population.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Slatt, R. [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, D. [Arco International Oil and Gas Co., Plano, TX (United States); Stone, C. [Arkansas Geological Commission, Little Rock, AR (United States)] [and others
1995-08-01
Hollywood Quarry is a 600 x 375 x 150 ft. (200 x 125 x 50m) excavation which provides a window into lower Pennsylvanian Jackfork Formation turbidite stratal architecture along the crest of a faulted anticlinal fold. A variety of turbidite facies are present, including: (a) lenticular, channelized sandstones, pebbly sandstones, and conglomerates within shale, (b) laterally continuous, interbedded thin sandstones and shales, and (c) thicker, laterally continuous shales. The sandstone and shale layers we broken by several strike-slip and reverse faults, with vertical displacements of up to several feet. This combination of facies and structural elements has resulted in a highly compartmentalized stratigraphic interval, both horizontally and vertically, along the anticlinal flexure. The quarry can be considered analogous to a scaled-down turbidite reservoir. Outcrop gamma-ray logs, measured sections, a fault map, and cross sections provide a database which is analogous to what would be available for a subsurface reservoir. Thus, the quarry provides an ideal outdoor geologic and engineering {open_quote}workshop{close_quote} venue for visualizing the potential complexities of a combination structural-stratigraphic (turbidite) reservoir. Since all forms of compartmentalization are readily visible in the quarry, problems related to management of compartmentalized reservoirs can be discussed and analyzed first-hand while standing in the quarry, within this {open_quote}model reservoir{close_quotes}. These problems include: (a) the high degree of stratigraphic and structural complexity that may be encountered, even at close well spacings, (b) uncertainty in well log correlations and log-shape interpretations, (c) variations in volumetric calculations as a function of amount of data available, and (d) potential production problems associated with specific {open_quote}field{close_quote} development plans.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boerresen, Knut Arne
1996-12-31
Hydrocarbon recovery from subsurface reservoirs has become increasingly dependent on advanced recovery techniques that require improved understanding of the physics of fluid flow within and across geological units including small-scale heterogeneities and fractures. In this thesis, impacts from heterogeneities on local fluid flow are studied experimentally by means of imaging techniques to visualize fluid flow in two dimensions during flooding of larger reservoir models. Part 1 reflects the multi-disciplinary collaboration, by briefly introducing the relevant geology, the literature on experiments on fluid flow in bedded structures, and outlining the applied numerical simulator and imaging techniques applied to visualize fluid flow. The second part contains a synopsis of displacement experiments in naturally laminated sandstones and in crossbed laboratory models, and of the impact from incipient shear fractures on oil recovery. The detailed results obtained from the experiments and simulations are described in six papers, all included. 215 refs., 108 figs., 16 tabs.
Junakova, N.; Balintova, M.; Junak, J.
2017-10-01
The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model for determining of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content in eroded soil particles with emphasis on prediction of bottom sediment quality in reservoirs. The adsorbed nutrient concentrations are calculated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) extended by the determination of the average soil nutrient concentration in top soils. The average annual vegetation and management factor is divided into five periods of the cropping cycle. For selected plants, the average plant nutrient uptake divided into five cropping periods is also proposed. The average nutrient concentrations in eroded soil particles in adsorbed form are modified by sediment enrichment ratio to obtain the total nutrient content in transported soil particles. The model was designed for the conditions of north-eastern Slovakia. The study was carried out in the agricultural basin of the small water reservoir Klusov.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boerresen, Knut Arne
1997-12-31
Hydrocarbon recovery from subsurface reservoirs has become increasingly dependent on advanced recovery techniques that require improved understanding of the physics of fluid flow within and across geological units including small-scale heterogeneities and fractures. In this thesis, impacts from heterogeneities on local fluid flow are studied experimentally by means of imaging techniques to visualize fluid flow in two dimensions during flooding of larger reservoir models. Part 1 reflects the multi-disciplinary collaboration, by briefly introducing the relevant geology, the literature on experiments on fluid flow in bedded structures, and outlining the applied numerical simulator and imaging techniques applied to visualize fluid flow. The second part contains a synopsis of displacement experiments in naturally laminated sandstones and in crossbed laboratory models, and of the impact from incipient shear fractures on oil recovery. The detailed results obtained from the experiments and simulations are described in six papers, all included. 215 refs., 108 figs., 16 tabs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot
2004-01-01
improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow......Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological...... herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters...
iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model
Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak
2011-01-01
This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest EffectsâHydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...
Crosta, G.; Imposimato, S.; Roddeman, D.; Frattini, P.
2012-04-01
Fast moving landslides can be originated along slopes in mountainous terrains with natural and artificial lakes, or fjords at the slope foot. This landslides can reach extremely high speed and the impact with the immobile reservoir water can be influenced by the local topography and the landslide mass profile. The impact can generate large impulse waves and landslide tsunami. Initiation, propagation and runup are the three phases that need to be considered. The landslide evolution and the consequent wave can be controlled by the initial mass position (subaerial, partially or completely submerged), the landslide speed, the type of material, the subaerial and subaqueous slope geometry, the landslide depth and length at the impact, and the water depth. Extreme events have been caused by subaerial landslides: the 1963 Vajont rockslide (Italy), the 1958 Lituya Bay event (Alaska), the Tafjord and the Loen multiple events event (Norway), also from volcanic collapses (Hawaii and Canary islands). Various researchers completed a systematic experimental work on 2D and 3D wave generation and propagation (Kamphuis and Bowering, 1970; Huber, 1980; Müller, 1995; Huber and Hager, 1997; Fritz, 2002; Zweifel, 2004; Panizzo et al., 2005; Heller, 2007; Heller and Kinnear, 2010; Sælevik et al., 2009), using both rigid blocks and deformable granular" masses. Model data and results have been used to calibrate and validate numerical modelling tools (Harbitz, 1992; Jiang and LeBlond, 1993; Grilli et al., 2002; Grilli and Watts, 2005; Lynett and Liu, 2005; Tinti et al., 2006; Abadie et al., 2010) generally considering simplified rheologies (e.g. viscous rheologies) for subaerial subaqueous spreading. We use a FEM code (Roddeman, 2011; Crosta et al., 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011) adopting an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to give accurate results for large deformations. We model both 2D and fully 3D events considering different settings. The material is considered as a fully deformable elasto
Chen, G. W.; Omenzetter, P.
2016-04-01
This paper presents the implementation of an updating procedure for the finite element model (FEM) of a prestressed concrete continuous box-girder highway off-ramp bridge. Ambient vibration testing was conducted to excite the bridge, assisted by linear chirp sweepings induced by two small electrodynamic shakes deployed to enhance the excitation levels, since the bridge was closed to traffic. The data-driven stochastic subspace identification method was executed to recover the modal properties from measurement data. An initial FEM was developed and correlation between the experimental modal results and their analytical counterparts was studied. Modelling of the pier and abutment bearings was carefully adjusted to reflect the real operational conditions of the bridge. The subproblem approximation method was subsequently utilized to automatically update the FEM. For this purpose, the influences of bearing stiffness, and mass density and Young's modulus of materials were examined as uncertain parameters using sensitivity analysis. The updating objective function was defined based on a summation of squared values of relative errors of natural frequencies between the FEM and experimentation. All the identified modes were used as the target responses with the purpose of putting more constrains for the optimization process and decreasing the number of potentially feasible combinations for parameter changes. The updated FEM of the bridge was able to produce sufficient improvements in natural frequencies in most modes of interest, and can serve for a more precise dynamic response prediction or future investigation of the bridge health.
Persistent estrus rat models of polycystic ovary disease: an update.
Singh, Krishna B
2005-10-01
To critically review published articles on polycystic ovary (PCO) disease in rat models, with a focus on delineating its pathophysiology. Review of the English-language literature published from 1966 to March 2005 was performed through PubMed search. Keywords or phrases used were persistent estrus, chronic anovulation, polycystic ovary, polycystic ovary disease, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Articles were also located via bibliographies of published literature. University Health Sciences Center. Articles on persistent estrus and PCO in rats were selected and reviewed regarding the methods for induction of PCO disease. Changes in the reproductive cycle, ovarian morphology, hormonal parameters, and factors associated with the development of PCO disease in rat models were analyzed. Principal methods for inducing PCO in the rat include exposure to constant light, anterior hypothalamic and amygdaloidal lesions, and the use of androgens, estrogens, antiprogestin, and mifepristone. The validated rat PCO models provide useful information on morphologic and hormonal disturbances in the pathogenesis of chronic anovulation in this condition. These studies have aimed to replicate the morphologic and hormonal characteristics observed in the human PCO syndrome. The implications of these studies to human condition are discussed.
Bertrand, Lionel; Géraud, Yves; Diraison, Marc; Damy, Pierre-Clément
2017-04-01
The Scientific Interest Group (GIS) GEODENERGIES with the REFLET project aims to develop a geological and reservoir model for fault zones that are the main targets for deep geothermal prospects in the West European Rift system. In this project, several areas are studied with an integrated methodology combining field studies, boreholes and geophysical data acquisition and 3D modelling. In this study, we present the results of reservoir rock analogues characterization of one of these prospects in the Valence Graben (Eastern France). The approach used is a structural and petrophysical characterization of the rocks outcropping at the shoulders of the rift in order to model the buried targeted fault zone. The reservoir rocks are composed of fractured granites, gneiss and schists of the Hercynian basement of the graben. The matrix porosity, permeability, P-waves velocities and thermal conductivities have been characterized on hand samples coming from fault zones at the outcrop. Furthermore, fault organization has been mapped with the aim to identify the characteristic fault orientation, spacing and width. The fractures statistics like the orientation, density, and length have been identified in the damaged zones and unfaulted blocks regarding the regional fault pattern. All theses data have been included in a reservoir model with a double porosity model. The field study shows that the fault pattern in the outcrop area can be classified in different fault orders, with first order scale, larger faults distribution controls the first order structural and lithological organization. Between theses faults, the first order blocks are divided in second and third order faults, smaller structures, with characteristic spacing and width. Third order fault zones in granitic rocks show a significant porosity development in the fault cores until 25 % in the most locally altered material, as the damaged zones develop mostly fractures permeabilities. In the gneiss and schists units, the
Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2013-01-01
When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due to the time it takes for the rain cell to travel from the rain gauge to the catchment. Since this time displacement is not present for system measurements the data assimilation scheme might already have updated the model to include the impact from the particular rain cell when the rain data is forced upon the model, which therefore will end up including the same rain twice in the model run. This paper compares forecast accuracy of updated models when using time displaced rain input to that of rain input with constant biases. This is done using a simple time-area model and historic rain series that are either displaced in time or affected with a bias. The results show that for a 10 minute forecast, time displacements of 5 and 10 minutes compare to biases of 60 and 100%, respectively, independent of the catchments time of concentration.
Fortescue reservoir development and reservoir studies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henzell, S.T.; Hicks, G.J.; Horden, M.J.; Irrgang, H.R.; Janssen, E.J.; Kable, C.W.; Mitchell, R.A.H.; Morrell, N.W.; Palmer, I.D.; Seage, N.W.
1985-03-01
The Fortescue field in the Gippsland Basin, offshore southeastern Australia is being developed from two platforms (Fortescue A and Cobia A) by Esso Australia Ltd. (operator) and BHP Petroleum. The Fortescue reservoir is a stratigraphic trap at the top of the Latrobe Group of sediments. It overlies the western flank of the Halibut and Cobia fields and is separated from them by a non-net sequence of shales and coals which form a hydraulic barrier between the two systems. Development drilling into the Fortescue reservoir commenced in April 1983 with production coming onstream in May 1983. Fortescue, with booked reserves of 44 stock tank gigalitres (280 million stock tank barrels) of 43/sup 0/ API oil, is the seventh major oil reservoir to be developed in the offshore Gippsland Basin by Esso/BHP. In mid-1984, after drilling a total of 20 exploration and development wells, and after approximately one year of production, a detailed three-dimensional, two-phase reservoir simulation study was performed to examine the recovery efficiency, drainage patterns, pressure performance and production rate potential of the reservoir. The model was validated by history matching an extensive suite of Repeat Formation Test (RFT) pressure data. The results confirmed the reserves basis, and demonstrated that the ultimate oil recovery from the reservoir is not sensitive to production rate. This result is consistent with studies on other high quality Latrobe Group reservoirs in the Gippsland Basin which contain undersaturated crudes and receive very strong water drive from the Basin-wide aquifer system. With the development of the simulation model during the development phase, it has been possible to more accurately define the optimal well pattern for the remainder of the development.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyeongsik Kang
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to investigate ecologically healthy regions near a dam reservoir. This study developed a model for assessing habitat suitability as a proxy for the ecological value of reservoirs. Three main factors comprising nine assessment variables were selected and classified as having a habitat suitability (HS between 0 and 1: (1 geomorphic factors of altitude, slope steepness, and slope aspect; (2 vegetation factors of forest physiognomy, vegetation type, and tree age; and (3 ecological factors of land cover, ecological quality index, and environmental conservation value assessment. The spatial distribution of the nine HS indices was determined using geographic information systems and combined into one HS index value to determine ecologically healthy regions. The assessment model was applied to areas surrounding the Hantan River Dam, South Korea. To verify the model, wildlife location data from the national ecosystem survey of the Ministry of Environment were used. Areas with an HS index between 0.73 and 1 were found to contain 72% of observed wildlife locations. Ecologically healthy areas were identified by adding the indices of each variable. The methods shown here will be useful for establishing ecological restoration plans for dam reservoirs in South Korea.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
RB. Prado
Full Text Available In this study multi-criteria modeling tools are applied to map the spatial distribution of drainage basin potential to pollute Barra Bonita Reservoir, São Paulo State, Brasil. Barra Bonita Reservoir Basin had undergone intense land use/land cover changes in the last decades, including the fast conversion from pasture into sugarcane. In this respect, this study answers to the lack of information about the variables (criteria which affect the pollution potential of the drainage basin by building a Geographic Information System which provides their spatial distribution at sub-basin level. The GIS was fed by several data (geomorphology, pedology, geology, drainage network and rainfall provided by public agencies. Landsat satellite images provided land use/land cover map for 2002. Ratings and weights of each criterion defined by specialists supported the modeling process. The results showed a wide variability in the pollution potential of different sub-basins according to the application of different criterion. If only land use is analyzed, for instance, less than 50% of the basin is classified as highly threatening to water quality and include sub basins located near the reservoir, indicating the importance of protection areas at the margins. Despite the subjectivity involved in the weighing processes, the multi-criteria analysis model allowed the simulation of scenarios which support rational land use polices at sub-basin level regarding the protection of water resources.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ernest A. Mancini
2001-09-14
The University of Alabama in cooperation with Texas A&M University, McGill University, Longleaf Energy Group, Strago Petroleum Corporation, and Paramount Petroleum Company are undertaking an integrated, interdisciplinary geoscientific and engineering research project. The project is designed to characterize and model reservoir architecture, pore systems and rock-fluid interactions at the pore to field scale in Upper Jurassic Smackover reef and carbonate shoal reservoirs associated with varying degrees of relief on pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The project effort includes the prediction of fluid flow in carbonate reservoirs through reservoir simulation modeling which utilizes geologic reservoir characterization and modeling and the prediction of carbonate reservoir architecture, heterogeneity and quality through seismic imaging. The primary objective of the project is to increase the profitability, producibility and efficiency of recovery of oil from existing and undiscovered Upper Jurassic fields characterized by reef and carbonate shoals associated with pre-Mesozoic basement paleohighs. The principal research effort for Year 1 of the project has been reservoir description and characterization. This effort has included four tasks: (1) geoscientific reservoir characterization, (2) the study of rock-fluid interactions, (3) petrophysical and engineering characterization and (4) data integration. This work was scheduled for completion in Year 1. Overall, the project work is on schedule. Geoscientific reservoir characterization is essentially completed. The architecture, porosity types and heterogeneity of the reef and shoal reservoirs at Appleton and Vocation Fields have been characterized using geological and geophysical data. The study of rock-fluid interactions has been initiated. Observations regarding the diagenetic processes influencing pore system development and heterogeneity in these reef and shoal reservoirs have been
Or, D.; Lehmann, P.; Aminzadeh, M.; Sommer, M.; Wey, H.; Wunderli, H.; Breitenstein, D.
2016-12-01
The competition over dwindling fresh water resources is expected to intensify with projected increase in human population in arid regions, expansion of irrigated land and changes in climate and drought patterns. The volume of water stored in reservoirs would also increase to mitigate seasonal shortages due to rainfall variability and to meet irrigation water needs. By some estimates up to half of the stored water is lost to evaporation thereby exacerbating the water scarcity problem. Recently, there is an upsurge in the use of self-assembling floating covers to suppress evaporation, yet the design, and implementation remain largely empirical. Studies have shown that evaporation suppression is highly nonlinear, as also known from a century of research on gas exchange from plant leaves (that often evaporate as free water surfaces through stomata that are only 1% of leaf area). We report a systematic evaluation of different cover types and external drivers (radiation, wind, wind+radiation) on evaporation suppression and energy balance of a 1.4 m2 basin placed in a wind-tunnel. Surprisingly, evaporation suppression by black and white floating covers (balls and plates) were similar despite significantly different energy balance regimes over the cover surfaces. Moreover, the evaporation suppression efficiency was a simple function of the uncovered area (square root of the uncovered fraction) with linear relations with the covered area in some cases. The thermally decoupled floating covers offer an efficient solution to the evaporation suppression with limited influence of the surface energy balance (water temperature for black and white covers was similar and remained nearly constant). The results will be linked with a predictive evaporation-energy balance model and issues of spatial scales and long exposure times will be studied.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The uploaded data consists of the BRACE Na aerosol observations paired with CMAQ model output, the updated model's parameterization of sea salt aerosol emission size...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smirnov, A.B.; Mokrov, Y.G.; Glagolenko, Y.V.; Drozhko, E.G.; Khodakovsky, I.L.; Leonov, A.V.
1995-01-01
The modern radioecological situation around the oldest radiochemical plant, Mayak, in South Ural (Russia) is indicated by the storage of 300 million to tons of low level radioactive waste in the Techa's reservoir chain (TRC). Future approaches for TRC restoration may be evaluated using corresponding mathematical models. The mathematical modeling complex, KASKAD, was developed at Mayak and is intended for reservoir radioecological state forecasting and alternative remediation approaches evaluation. The paper describes this model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Akram, A.H.; Samad, A. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, TX (United States)]|[Schlumberger, Houston, TX (United States)
2006-07-01
A study was conducted in which a newly developed numerical simulator was used to forecast the productivity of a hydraulically fractured well in a retrograde gas-condensate sandstone reservoir. The effect of condensate dropout was modeled in both the reservoir and the proppant pack. The type of proppant and the stress applied to it are among the factors that determine proppant conductivity in a single-phase flow. Other factors include the high velocity of gas and the presence of liquid in the proppant pack. It was concluded that apparent proppant permeability in a gas condensate reservoir varies along the length of the hydraulic fracture and depends on the distance from the wellbore. It will increase towards the tip of the fracture where liquid ratio and velocity are lower. Apparent proppant permeability also changes with time. Forecasting is most accurate when these conditions are considered in the simulation. There are 2 problems associated with the use of a constant proppant permeability in a gas condensate reservoir. The first relates to the fact that it is impossible to obtain a correct single number that will mimic the drawdown of the real fracture at a particular rate without going through the process of determining the proppant permeability profile in a numerical simulator. The second problem relates to the fact that constant proppant permeability yields an optimal fracture length that is too short. Analytical modeling does not account for these complexities. It was determined that the only way to accurately simulate the behaviour of a hydraulic fracture in a high rate well, is by advanced numerical modeling that considers varying apparent proppant permeability in terms of time and distance along the fracture length. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 16 figs., 1 appendix.
EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bulgakova, G T; Kharisov, R Ya; Sharifullin, A R; Pestrikov, A V
2015-01-01
Application of a self-diverting-acid based on viscoelastic surfactant (SDVA) is a promising technology for improving the efficacy of acid treatment in oil and gas-bearing carbonate reservoirs. In this study, we present a mathematical model for assessing SDVA flow and reaction with carbonate rock using the SDVA rheological characteristics. The model calculates the technological parameters for acidizing operations and the prediction of well productivity after acid treatment, in addition to technical and economic optimization of the acidizing process by modeling different acid treatment options with varying volumes, injection rates, process fluids stages and initial economic scenarios
Xu, Zhongyan; Godrej, Adil N.; Grizzard, Thomas J.
2007-10-01
SummaryRunoff models such as HSPF and reservoir models such as CE-QUAL-W2 are used to model water quality in watersheds. Most often, the models are independently calibrated to observed data. While this approach can achieve good calibration, it does not replicate the physically-linked nature of the system. When models are linked by using the model output from an upstream model as input to a downstream model, the physical reality of a continuous watershed, where the overland and waterbody portions are parts of the whole, is better represented. There are some additional challenges in the calibration of such linked models, because the aim is to simulate the entire system as a whole, rather than piecemeal. When public entities are charged with model development, one of the driving forces is to use public-domain models. This paper describes the use of two such models, HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2, in the linked modeling of the Occoquan watershed located in northern Virginia, USA. The description of the process is provided, and results from the hydrological calibration and validation are shown. The Occoquan model consists of six HSPF and two CE-QUAL-W2 models, linked in a complex way, to simulate two major reservoirs and the associated drainage areas. The overall linked model was calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a two-year period. The results show that a successful calibration can be achieved using the linked approach, with moderate additional effort. Overall flow balances based on the three-year calibration period at four stream stations showed agreement ranging from -3.95% to +3.21%. Flow balances for the two reservoirs, compared via the daily water surface elevations, also showed good agreement ( R2 values of 0.937 for Lake Manassas and 0.926 for Occoquan Reservoir), when missing (un-monitored) flows were included. Validation of the models ranged from poor to fair for the watershed models and excellent for the waterbody models, thus indicating that the
Updating Linear Schedules with Lowest Cost: a Linear Programming Model
Biruk, Sławomir; Jaśkowski, Piotr; Czarnigowska, Agata
2017-10-01
Many civil engineering projects involve sets of tasks repeated in a predefined sequence in a number of work areas along a particular route. A useful graphical representation of schedules of such projects is time-distance diagrams that clearly show what process is conducted at a particular point of time and in particular location. With repetitive tasks, the quality of project performance is conditioned by the ability of the planner to optimize workflow by synchronizing the works and resources, which usually means that resources are planned to be continuously utilized. However, construction processes are prone to risks, and a fully synchronized schedule may expire if a disturbance (bad weather, machine failure etc.) affects even one task. In such cases, works need to be rescheduled, and another optimal schedule should be built for the changed circumstances. This typically means that, to meet the fixed completion date, durations of operations have to be reduced. A number of measures are possible to achieve such reduction: working overtime, employing more resources or relocating resources from less to more critical tasks, but they all come at a considerable cost and affect the whole project. The paper investigates the problem of selecting the measures that reduce durations of tasks of a linear project so that the cost of these measures is kept to the minimum and proposes an algorithm that could be applied to find optimal solutions as the need to reschedule arises. Considering that civil engineering projects, such as road building, usually involve less process types than construction projects, the complexity of scheduling problems is lower, and precise optimization algorithms can be applied. Therefore, the authors put forward a linear programming model of the problem and illustrate its principle of operation with an example.
Model of erosion–landslide interaction in the context of the reservoir ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
the reservoir water level variations (East Siberia, Russia):. Factors ... The landslide and fluid soil creep cause the change in the gully head form and .... with yearly level fluctuations in the range of 2–3 m and lowering .... (boiling of triturated specimen with sodium pyrophosphate ... E; altitude: 427 m a.s.l., Russian. Federation) ...
The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliform in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA
Fecal contamination has been an issue for water quality because fecal coliform bacteria are used as an indicator organism to detect pathogens in water. In order to assess fecal contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a comm...
4D seismic reservoir characterization, integrated with geo-mechanical modelling
Angelov, P.V.
2009-01-01
Hydrocarbon production induces time-lapse changes in the seismic attributes (travel time and amplitude) both at the level of the producing reservoir and in the surrounding rock. The detected time-lapse changes in the seismic are induced from the changes in the petrophysical properties of the rock,
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aguirre, Nestor; Palacio, Jaime; Ramirez, John Jairo
2002-01-01
The dynamic behavior of two stations in El Penol-Guatape reservoir was studied during a year. The station one was located to the entrance of the Nare River (main tributary to the reservoir) and the station two in the area denominated Sun Island (with mainly lentic characteristics). In each station monthly samplings were done with the purpose of calculating two hydro biologics parameters and some models of loads of nutritients and of eutrophication were applied. According to the study, it was established that in the in the station one the rate assimilation of nutritious by microorganisms and the sedimentation rate of chlorophylled organisms were more elevated that in the station two. In general, it was found that the primary production in the station one was limited by the phosphorous and there were limitations for nitrogen during five months and seven months by the phosphorous in the station two. Starting from the model of prediction of the eutrophycation, in tropical warm lakes, it was found that El Penol Guatape reservoir is oligo productive
The prehistoric Vajont rockslide: An updated geological model
Paronuzzi, Paolo; Bolla, Alberto
2012-10-01
misinterpretations or even to erroneous engineering-geological and geotechnical models. Accurate fieldwork and modern technologies can be fundamental in solving such a very intriguing 'geological puzzle.'
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Davis, Stacy Cagle [ORNL
2009-12-01
This report is designed to document the analysis process and estimation models currently used by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to estimate the off-highway gasoline consumption and public sector fuel consumption. An overview of the entire FHWA attribution process is provided along with specifics related to the latest update (2008) on the Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model and the Public Use of Gasoline Model. The Off-Highway Gasoline Use Model is made up of five individual modules, one for each of the off-highway categories: agricultural, industrial and commercial, construction, aviation, and marine. This 2008 update of the off-highway models was the second major update (the first model update was conducted during 2002-2003) after they were originally developed in mid-1990. The agricultural model methodology, specifically, underwent a significant revision because of changes in data availability since 2003. Some revision to the model was necessary due to removal of certain data elements used in the original estimation method. The revised agricultural model also made use of some newly available information, published by the data source agency in recent years. The other model methodologies were not drastically changed, though many data elements were updated to improve the accuracy of these models. Note that components in the Public Use of Gasoline Model were not updated in 2008. A major challenge in updating estimation methods applied by the public-use model is that they would have to rely on significant new data collection efforts. In addition, due to resource limitation, several components of the models (both off-highway and public-us models) that utilized regression modeling approaches were not recalibrated under the 2008 study. An investigation of the Environmental Protection Agency's NONROAD2005 model was also carried out under the 2008 model update. Results generated from the NONROAD2005 model were analyzed, examined, and compared, to the extent that
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lei Qin
2014-05-01
Full Text Available We propose a novel approach for tracking an arbitrary object in video sequences for visual surveillance. The first contribution of this work is an automatic feature extraction method that is able to extract compact discriminative features from a feature pool before computing the region covariance descriptor. As the feature extraction method is adaptive to a specific object of interest, we refer to the region covariance descriptor computed using the extracted features as the adaptive covariance descriptor. The second contribution is to propose a weakly supervised method for updating the object appearance model during tracking. The method performs a mean-shift clustering procedure among the tracking result samples accumulated during a period of time and selects a group of reliable samples for updating the object appearance model. As such, the object appearance model is kept up-to-date and is prevented from contamination even in case of tracking mistakes. We conducted comparing experiments on real-world video sequences, which confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed approaches. The tracking system that integrates the adaptive covariance descriptor and the clustering-