WorldWideScience

Sample records for reservoir management scenarios

  1. Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Prats

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

  2. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neural reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers, geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  3. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neutral reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  4. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water......-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use...... change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected...

  5. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  6. Reservoir Engineering Management Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, J.H.; Schwarz, W.J.

    1977-12-14

    The Reservoir Engineering Management Program being conducted at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory includes two major tasks: 1) the continuation of support to geothermal reservoir engineering related work, started under the NSF-RANN program and transferred to ERDA at the time of its formation; 2) the development and subsequent implementation of a broad plan for support of research in topics related to the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs. This plan is now known as the GREMP plan. Both the NSF-RANN legacies and GREMP are in direct support of the DOE/DGE mission in general and the goals of the Resource and Technology/Resource Exploitation and Assessment Branch in particular. These goals are to determine the magnitude and distribution of geothermal resources and reduce risk in their exploitation through improved understanding of generically different reservoir types. These goals are to be accomplished by: 1) the creation of a large data base about geothermal reservoirs, 2) improved tools and methods for gathering data on geothermal reservoirs, and 3) modeling of reservoirs and utilization options. The NSF legacies are more research and training oriented, and the GREMP is geared primarily to the practical development of the geothermal reservoirs. 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  7. Sediment management for reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, A.

    2005-01-01

    All natural lakes and reservoirs whether on rivers, tributaries or off channel storages are doomed to be sited up. Pakistan has two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Managla and shallow lake created by Chashma Barrage. Tarbela and Mangla Lakes are losing their capacities ever since first impounding, Tarbela since 1974 and Mangla since 1967. Tarbela Reservoir receives average annual flow of about 62 MAF and sediment deposits of 0.11 MAF whereas Mangla gets about 23 MAF of average annual flows and is losing its storage at the rate of average 34,000 MAF annually. The loss of storage is a great concern and studies for Tarbela were carried out by TAMS and Wallingford to sustain its capacity whereas no study has been done for Mangla as yet except as part of study for Raised Mangla, which is only desk work. Delta of Tarbala reservoir has advanced to about 6.59 miles (Pivot Point) from power intakes. In case of liquefaction of delta by tremor as low as 0.12g peak ground acceleration the power tunnels I, 2 and 3 will be blocked. Minimum Pool of reservoir is being raised so as to check the advance of delta. Mangla delta will follow the trend of Tarbela. Tarbela has vast amount of data as reservoir is surveyed every year, whereas Mangla Reservoir survey was done at five-year interval, which has now been proposed .to be reduced to three-year interval. In addition suspended sediment sampling of inflow streams is being done by Surface Water Hydrology Project of WAPDA as also some bed load sampling. The problem of Chasma Reservoir has also been highlighted, as it is being indiscriminately being filled up and drawdown several times a year without regard to its reaction to this treatment. The Sediment Management of these reservoirs is essential and the paper discusses pros and cons of various alternatives. (author)

  8. Probabilistic construction of inflow scenarios at a reservoir; Construction probabiliste de scenarios d'apports a un reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seidou, O.; Robert, B.; Marche, C.; Rousselle, J. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement des Genies Civil, Geologique et des Mines, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Lefebvre, M. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement de Mathematiques et de Genie Industriel, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-02-01

    Development of risk indicators to aid in decisions affecting the operation of hydric systems is described. The significant part of the risk affecting hydric systems is the uncertainty surrounding future inflows. A method to construct inflow scenarios starting from an arbitrary date 'y' of the year is developed using a Markovian process which also has been used to model short-term uncertainty in stream flow. The text is divided in five parts: (1) methodology, (2) terminology, (3) theory, (4) application, and (5) results. The scenarios are built to reproduce the statistical behaviour of the river or reservoir and have the shape of an event tree whose structure is defined by the user before application of the method. Application of the method is illustrated by two examples, one involving the Harricana River, the other the Cabonga Reservoir, both situated in the province of Quebec. 11 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs.

  9. A rationale for reservoir management economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hickman, T.S.

    1995-01-01

    Significant economic benefits can be derived from the application f reservoir management. The key elements in economical reservoir management are the efficient use of available resources and optimization of reservoir exploitation through a multidisciplined approach. This paper describes various aspects of and approaches to reservoir management and provides case histories that support the findings

  10. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes

  11. APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jack Bergeron; Tom Blasingame; Louis Doublet; Mohan Kelkar; George Freeman; Jeff Callard; David Moore; David Davies; Richard Vessell; Brian Pregger; Bill Dixon; Bryce Bezant

    2000-03-01

    , and to monitor pressure and preferential fluid movement in the reservoir is demonstrated. These techniques are: long-term production and injection data analysis, pressure transient analysis, and advanced open and cased hole well log analysis. The major contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  12. Mrica Reservoir Sedimentation: Current Situation and Future Necessary Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Utomo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mrica Reservoir is one of many reservoirs located in Central Java that experienced a considerably high sedimentation during the last ten years. This condition has caused a rapid decrease in reservoir capacity. Various countermeasures have been introduced to reduce the rate of the reservoir sedimentation through catchment management and reservoir operation by means of flushing and/or dredging. However, the sedimentation remains intensive so that the fulfillment of water demand for electrical power generation was seriously affected. This paper presents the results of evaluation on the dynamics of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the sediment balance of the Mrica Reservoir based on two different scenarios, i.e. the existing condition and another certain type of reservoir management. The study on sediment balance was carried out by estimating the sediment inflow applying sheet erosion method in combination with the analysis of sediment rating curve. The measurement of the deposited sediment rate in the reservoir was conducted through the periodic echo sounding, whereas identification of the number of sediment that has been released from the reservoir was carried out through the observation on both flushing and dredging activities. The results show that during the last decade, the rate of the sediment inflow was approximately 5.869 MCM/year, whereas the released sediment from the reservoir was 4.097 MCM/year. In order to maintain the reservoir capacity, therefore, at least 1.772 MCM/year should be released from the reservoir by means of either flushing or dredging. Sedimentation management may prolong the reservoir’s service life to exceed the design life. Without sediment management, the lifetime of the reservoir would have finished by 2016, whereas with the proper management the lifetime may be extended to 2025.

  13. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  14. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  15. The role of reservoir characterization in the reservoir management process (as reflected in the Department of Energy`s reservoir management demonstration program)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L. [BDM-Petroleum Technologies, Bartlesville, OK (United States); Young, M.A.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    Optimum reservoir recovery and profitability result from guidance of reservoir practices provided by an effective reservoir management plan. Success in developing the best, most appropriate reservoir management plan requires knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system including rocks, and rock-fluid interactions (i.e., a characterization of the reservoir) as well as wellbores and associated equipment and surface facilities; (2) the technologies available to describe, analyze, and exploit the reservoir; and (3) the business environment under which the plan will be developed and implemented. Reservoir characterization is the essential to gain needed knowledge of the reservoir for reservoir management plan building. Reservoir characterization efforts can be appropriately scaled by considering the reservoir management context under which the plan is being built. Reservoir management plans de-optimize with time as technology and the business environment change or as new reservoir information indicates the reservoir characterization models on which the current plan is based are inadequate. BDM-Oklahoma and the Department of Energy have implemented a program of reservoir management demonstrations to encourage operators with limited resources and experience to learn, implement, and disperse sound reservoir management techniques through cooperative research and development projects whose objectives are to develop reservoir management plans. In each of the three projects currently underway, careful attention to reservoir management context assures a reservoir characterization approach that is sufficient, but not in excess of what is necessary, to devise and implement an effective reservoir management plan.

  16. Frameworks for amending reservoir water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

    2013-01-01

    Managing water storage and withdrawals in many reservoirs requires establishing seasonal targets for water levels (i.e., rule curves) that are influenced by regional precipitation and diverse water demands. Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated and mostly unfamiliar to non-US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) natural resource managers and to the public. To inform natural resource managers and the public we describe the policies and process involved in amending rule curves in USACE reservoirs, including 3 frameworks: a general investigation, a continuing authority program, and the water control plan. Our review suggests that water management in reservoirs can be amended, but generally a multitude of constraints and competing demands must be addressed before such a change can be realized.

  17. Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

    2015-01-01

    Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU

  18. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-01-01

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

  19. New technologies for reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mair, Dylan; Benthien, Nancy; Evans, Scot [Landmark Graphics Corporation, Houston, TX (United States); Lukats, Kandy

    2004-07-01

    The E and P industry has high levels of uncertainty and risk, which oil companies attempt to quantify before embarking on each individual E and P project. However, the actual return on investment often falls well short of the hurdle rate. This discrepancy has been attributed to systemic limitations in decision analysis processes and workflow, which result in repeated underestimation of risk and overestimation of the predicted production of the project. Well designed decision analysis processes in association with clearly defined, multi-scenario analyses of significant technical uncertainties are required. However, simulation of these uncertainties is not realistic given the performance and infrastructure limitations of conventional technology (Begg et al., 2001; Floris and Peersmann, 2000). During the past five years, more than 20 companies have attempted to map the requirements of new technology that is needed to improve uncertainty assessment and decision analysis. Pain points associated with common processes in upstream E and P were studied leading to identify the computing technology issues currently faced by oil companies. A strategy was then formalized to create a new generation of technology that eases the pain points while providing for improved understanding of risk. This paper details a new asset-team focused technology system that has been built to improve the value of E and P decision analysis processes. (author)

  20. The management of the Diama reservoir (Senegal River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

    2003-04-01

    The Senegal River is regulated by 2 dams built in the 1980's by the "Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal" (OMVS), a river basin management organisation grouping Mali, Senegal and Mauritania. The initial objectives of OMVS, which were to regulate the Senegal flows in order to develop irrigated agriculture, produce hydropower and facilitate river navigation has been only partially met. The maintenance of the annual flood by the upstream dam (Manantali), initially to be phased out when irrigated agriculture would have replaced the traditional recession agriculture, is now scheduled to continue indefinitely on the basis of socio-economic and environmental concerns. This change of mindset has however not affected the management of the downstream dam (Diama). Initially conceived as a salt-wedge dam, its function evolved to a reservoir dam with a high and constant water level. During the dry season, the water level is maintained high and constant in order to reduce the pumping costs for the irrigated agriculture in the delta. During the flood season (July-October) the dam is primarily managed for risk avoidance: limit flooding downstream of the dam (especially the city of St. Louis) and secure the infrastructure of the dam itself. The permanent freshwater reservoir lake has adverse effects on ecosystems, on human and animal health and a high social cost for the traditional stakeholders of the deltaic floodplain (fishermen, livestock keepers and gatherers). Upstream of the reservoir there is an excess of stagnant freshwater and managers are confronted with the development of invasive species while substantial downstream flooding is essential for the estuarine ecosystems and local livelihoods. The presentation will review the different approaches to the management of the Diama reservoir and proposes different management scenarios and compares their economical, environmental, and social costs and benefits.

  1. Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusfan Halik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

  2. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  3. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  4. State of the art of reservoir sedimentation management in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Avendaño Salas, Cándido; Sanz Montero, Esther; Cobo Rayán, Rafael

    2000-01-01

    Part of the total reservoir storage capacity in Spain (56 km3) is lost due to sedimentation processes taking place. Surveys carried out in 121 reservoirs indicate that 6% of them have undergone a capacity reduction of over 50%. However, most of them (81%) are characterised by a reservoir capacity loss below 20%. The most frequent methods used to control reservoir sedimentation in Spain fall into one of the following groups: reduction of sediment yield through basin management and removal of t...

  5. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    OpenAIRE

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs for the control of the quality of water besides merely satisfying the quantity requirement. This study presents several techniques formulated to manage a reservoir when both quantity and quality of...

  6. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  7. The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reservoir operation and management is usually patterned after the background of long standing water resources management experience. Reservoir management for optimum power production at any hydropower station requires constant assessment of the quantity of available water. The hydrographic responses of flow ...

  8. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

  9. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  10. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling, Class II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergeron, Jack; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill; Bezant, Bryce

    2000-03-16

    The major purpose of this project was to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  11. Integrated method to optimize well connection and platform placement on a multi-reservoir scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Sergio Henrique Guerra de; Madeira, Marcelo Gomes; Franca, Martha Salles [Halliburton, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mota, Rosane Oliveira; Silva, Edilon Ribeiro da; King, Vanessa Pereira Spear [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    This paper describes a workflow created to optimize the platform placement and well-platform connections on a multi reservoir scenario using an integrated reservoir simulator paired with an optimization engine. The proposed methodology describes how a new platform, being incorporated into a pre-existing asset, can be better used to develop newly-discovered fields, while helping increase the production of existing fields by sharing their production load. The sharing of production facilities is highly important in Brazilian offshore assets because of their high price (a few billion dollars per facility) and the fact that total production is usually limited to the installed capacity of liquid processing, which is an important constraint on high water-cut well production rates typical to this region. The case study asset used to present the workflow consists of two deep water oil fields, each one developed by its own production platform, and a newly-discovered field with strong aquifer support that will be entirely developed with a new production platform. Because this new field should not include injector wells owing to the strong aquifer presence, the idea is to consider reconnecting existing wells from the two pre-existing fields to better use the production resources. In this scenario, the platform location is an important optimization issue, as a balance between supporting the production of the planned wells on the new field and the production of re-routed wells from the existing fields must be reached to achieve improved overall asset production. If the new platform is too far away from any interconnected production well, pressure-drop issues along the pipeline might actually decrease production from the existing fields rather than augment it. The main contribution of this work is giving the reader insights on how to model and optimize these complex decisions to generate high-quality scenarios. (author)

  12. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  13. Reservoir area of influence and implications for fisheries management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Dustin R.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the spatial area that a reservoir draws anglers from, defined as the reservoir's area of influence, and the potential overlap of that area of influence between reservoirs is important for fishery managers. Our objective was to define the area of influence for reservoirs of the Salt Valley regional fishery in southeastern Nebraska using kernel density estimation. We used angler survey data obtained from in-person interviews at 17 reservoirs during 2009–2012. The area of influence, defined by the 95% kernel density, for reservoirs within the Salt Valley regional fishery varied, indicating that anglers use reservoirs differently across the regional fishery. Areas of influence reveal angler preferences in a regional context, indicating preferred reservoirs with a greater area of influence. Further, differences in areas of influences across time and among reservoirs can be used as an assessment following management changes on an individual reservoir or within a regional fishery. Kernel density estimation provided a clear method for creating spatial maps of areas of influence and provided a two-dimensional view of angler travel, as opposed to the traditional mean travel distance assessment.

  14. Increasing Waterflood Reserves in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, D.; Koerner, R.; Moos D.; Nguyen, J.; Phillips, C.; Tagbor, K.; Walker, S.

    1999-04-05

    This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate.

  15. INCREASING WATERFLOOD RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH IMPROVED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott Walker; Chris Phillips; Roy Koerner; Don Clarke; Dan Moos; Kwasi Tagbor

    2002-02-28

    This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

  16. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1995--September 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1995-09-12

    At this stage of the reservoir characterization research, the main emphasis is on the geostatistics and reservoir simulation. Progress is reported on geological analysis, reservoir simulation, and reservoir management.

  17. Increasing Waterflooding Reservoirs in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerner, Roy; Clarke, Don; Walker, Scott

    1999-11-09

    The objectives of this quarterly report was to summarize the work conducted under each task during the reporting period April - June 1998 and to report all technical data and findings as specified in the ''Federal Assistance Reporting Checklist''. The main objective of this project is the transfer of technologies, methodologies, and findings developed and applied in this project to other operators of Slope and Basin Clastic Reservoirs. This project will study methods to identify sands with high remaining oil saturation and to recomplete existing wells using advanced completion technology.

  18. Master plan: Guntersville Reservoir Aquatic Plant Management. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-12-31

    In 1989, Congress provided funding to start a five-year comprehensive project to manage aquatic plants in Guntersville Reservoir, to be jointly implemented by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA serves as the overall project coordinator and is the lead agency for this project. Known as the Joint Agency Guntersville Project (JAGP), the project will test and demonstrate innovative management technologies, and incorporate the most effective technologies into a comprehensive aquatic plant management plan for Guntersville Reservoir. The JAGP is intended to serve as a National Demonstration Project for aquatic plant management. As part of this JAGP, the Master Plan for Aquatic Plant Management for the Guntersville Reservoir Project, Alabama-Tennessee is authorized by Corps Contract Number DACW62-90-C-0067.

  19. Management of Water Quantity and Quality Based on Copula for a Tributary to Miyun Reservoir, Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, N.; Wang, X.; Liang, P.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the complex mutual influence between water quantity and water quality of river, it is difficult to reflect the actual characters of the tributaries to reservoir. In this study, the acceptable marginal probability distributions for water quantity and quality of reservoir inflow were calculated. A bivariate Archimedean copula was further applied to establish the joint distribution function of them. Then multiple combination scenarios of water quantity and water quality were designed to analyze their coexistence relationship and reservoir management strategies. Taking Bai river, an important tributary into the Miyun Reservoir, as a study case. The results showed that it is feasible to apply Frank copula function to describe the jointed distribution function of water quality and water quantity for Bai river. Furthermore, the monitoring of TP concentration needs to be strengthen in Bai river. This methodology can be extended to larger dimensions and is transferable to other reservoirs via establishment of models with relevant data for a particular area. Our findings help better analyzing the coexistence relationship and influence degree of the water quantity and quality of the tributary to reservoir for the purpose of water resources protection.

  20. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  1. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  2. Conservation implications of weed management of lake reservoirs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Management of weeds around lake reservoirs is often implemented to reduce any possibility of siltation. However, machineries used in weed management have resulted in habitat degradation and geometrical multiplication of weeds by chopping rhizomes and scattering seeds. In general, the removal offers some feedbacks ...

  3. Flood risk management for large reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupart, M.

    2006-01-01

    Floods are a major risk for dams: uncontrolled reservoir water level may cause dam overtopping, and then its failure, particularly for fill dams. Poor control of spillway discharges must be taken into consideration too, as it can increase the flood consequences downstream. In both cases, consequences on the public or on properties may be significant. Spillway design to withstand extreme floods is one response to these risks, but must be complemented by strict operating rules: hydrological forecasting, surveillance and periodic equipment controls, operating guides and the training of operators are mandatory too, in order to guarantee safe operations. (author)

  4. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Müller

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Kessem–Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i recent conditions and (ii future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i rule curves with a high degree of freedom – this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  5. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Gebretsadik, Henok Y.; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Recently, the Kessem-Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i) recent conditions and (ii) future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i) rule curves with a high degree of freedom - this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii) smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  6. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  7. Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navar, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

  8. The generation of three-dimensional petroleum reservoirs scenarios; Geracao de cenarios tridimensionais de reservatorios petroliferos canalizados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Andre Luiz F. [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil)]. E-mail: andre.alfa@gmail.com; Silva, Rosana M. da [Universidade Federal de Campo Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academica de Matematica e Estatistica]. E-mail: rosana@dme.ufcg.edu.br

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a prototype of a modeler aimed to obtain 3-dimensional geologic scenarios which simulate canalized petroleum reservoirs from information about the geometry of the geologic units that compound them and the wells' profiles, using as a base the 'Namorado' Field (Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro). The connected volumes that form a reservoir have proper shapes, which can be hardly modeled by known surfaces with parametric description (or implicit). The geologic units implemented by the prototype are formed by turbidity canals, which are represented by poliedric surfaces through triangulated webs. The 3-dimensional models that represent the reservoir geometry were obtained using the method of superposition of geologic units, according to the natural depositional sequence, through intersection operations between the geologic units modeled as poliedric surfaces. Limit boxes are used to optimize the calculus of intersections in the triangulated webs, using the algorithm proposed by Lo and Wang (2004). The validation of the 3-dimensional model, that models the reservoir, is done through the calculus of interiority, obtained from the implicit equations that describe the transversal sections of the canal's surface, whose domains include the identified intervals as reservoir in the data of previously informed wells. (author)

  9. Dredged Material Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement. McNary Reservoir and Lower Snake River Reservoirs. Appendix C: Economic Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...; for managment of dredged material from these reservoirs; and for maintenance of flow conveyance capacity at the most upstream extent of the Lower Granite reservoir for the remaining economic life of the dam and reservoir project (to year 2074...

  10. Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marcé, R.; George, G.; Buscarinu, P.; Deidda, M.; Dunalska, J.; de Eyto, E.; Flaim, G.; Grossart, H. P.; Istvánovics, V.; Lenhardt, M.; Moreno-Ostos, E.; Obrador, B.; Ostrovsky, I.; Pierson, D. C.; Potužák, Jan; Poikane, S.; Rinke, K.; Rodríguez-Mozaz, S.; Staehr, P. A.; Šumberová, Kateřina; Waajen, G.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Weathers, K. C.; Zion, M.; Ibelings, B. W.; Jennings, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 20 (2016), s. 10780-10794 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD14045 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : monitoring of water resources * water reservoir management * sensors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.198, year: 2016

  11. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir managment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  12. Advanced business process management in networked E-business scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Türetken, O.

    2017-01-01

    In the modern economy, we see a shift towards networked business scenarios. In many contemporary situations, the operation of multiple organizations is tightly coupled in collaborative business networks. To allow this tightly coupled collaboration, business process management (BPM) in these

  13. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marziali Laura

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by Igeo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning.

  15. The wastes management: possible scenario for 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capdevila, J.M.

    2003-03-01

    This document gathers the slides presented by J.M. Capdevila at the Seminar DEN/SAC the 13 mars 2003. They deal with the law of the 30 december 1991 concerning the radioactive wastes management, the research and development programs begun at the Cea and the short dated projects (2006), the forecast of the situation after 2006. (A.L.B.)

  16. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. K. Pande

    1998-10-29

    Initial drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, must become a process of the past. Such efforts do not optimize reservoir development as they fail to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: o Large, discontinuous pay intervals o Vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties o Low reservoir energy o High residual oil saturation o Low recovery efficiency

  17. An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieker, Jeffrey D.; Labadie, John W.

    2012-09-01

    A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.

  18. Radioactive waste management - the Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raj, Kanwar

    2008-01-01

    In India, nuclear power generation programme and application of radioisotopes for health care and various other application is increasing steadily. With resultant increase in generation of radioactive waste, emphasis is on the minimization of generation of radioactive waste by deploying suitable processes and materials, segregation of waste streams at sources, recycle and re-use of useful components of waste and use of volume reduction techniques. The minimization of the radioactive waste is also essential to facilitate judicious use of the scarce land available for disposal, to reduce impact on the environment due to disposal and, finally to optimize the cost of radioactive waste management. This paper presents a bird's eye view of radioactive waste management programme in the country today

  19. Evaluation of sediment management strategies on reservoir storage depletion rate: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Sterk, G.

    2010-01-01

    Sedimentation aspects have a major role during the design of new reservoir projects because life of the reservoir mainly depends upon sediment handling during reservoir operation. Therefore, proper sediment management strategies should be adopted to enhance the life span of reservoirs. Basha

  20. Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

    2010-01-01

    Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

  1. Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

  2. Variability in perceived satisfaction of reservoir management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, W.J.; Gates, T.K.; Flug, M.

    1997-01-01

    Fuzzy set theory provides a useful model to address imprecision in interpreting linguistically described objectives for reservoir management. Fuzzy membership functions can be used to represent degrees of objective satisfaction for different values of management variables. However, lack of background information, differing experiences and qualifications, and complex interactions of influencing factors can contribute to significant variability among membership functions derived from surveys of multiple experts. In the present study, probabilistic membership functions are used to model variability in experts' perceptions of satisfaction of objectives for hydropower generation, fish habitat, kayaking, rafting, and scenery preservation on the Green River through operations of Flaming Gorge Dam. Degree of variability in experts' perceptions differed among objectives but resulted in substantial uncertainty in estimation of optimal reservoir releases.

  3. Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2018-04-01

    A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

  4. Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia, is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast, and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast. We have studied the following: (1 whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2 whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form outperform the operational forecasts of the April–June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

  5. 75 FR 6257 - Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and Roane Counties, TN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and... Watts Bar Reservoir in Tennessee. On November 19, 2009, the TVA Board of Directors (TVA Board) decided... the final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for the Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan...

  6. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  7. 75 FR 77691 - Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in Cocke, Greene, Hamblen...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in... the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). TVA has prepared the Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary... Douglas and Nolichucky tributary reservoirs has been allocated into broad use categories or ``zones...

  8. Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Sanagustín, Mar; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Pérez-Sanagustín, M., Hernández-Leo D., & Blat, J. (accepted). Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios. The 9th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies. July, 14-18, 2009, Riga, Latvia.

  9. Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1980-11-01

    The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis

  10. Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís A. Scola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.

  11. Application of the Ommaya Reservoir in Managing Ventricular Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xi-Tao; Feng, Dong-Fu; Zhao, Liang; Sun, Zhao-Liang; Zhao, Gang

    2016-05-01

    Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of the combined treatment of an Ommaya reservoir and conventional external ventricular drainage (EVD) using urokinase in the management of IVH. We performed a prospective controlled study. Sixty eligible patients with IVH received conventional EVD alone (group A) or combined EVD and Ommaya reservoir (group B) between January 2010 and January 2015. Clinical, cerebrospinal fluid, and radiographic data were used to assess clot clearance, clinical outcomes, and complications between the groups. There were no significant differences in gender, age, blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, Graeb score, intracerebral hemorrhage volume on admission, and IVH volume before surgery between groups A and B (P > 0.05). The number of injections of urokinase (20,000 IU/dose) were significantly different in group B compared with group A (P 0.05). The hydrocephalus incidence and mortality revealed significant differences between the 2 groups (P safe and effective in patients with IVH. It increased clot clearance, shortened conventional catheter-based EVD duration, prolonged total drainage time, reduced the hydrocephalus incidence and mortality, and contributed to good clinical outcomes. The Ommaya reservoir provides a safe way to increase the injection times of urokinase, which accelerated clot resolution and did not increase the risk for ventriculitis infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  13. Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    provide a more flexible tool for future and prospective scenarios which are not covered by data driven models [3]. [1] Kühn M, Stöfen H (2005) A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand. Hydrogeology Journal 13, 606-626, doi: 10.1007/s10040-004-0377-6 [2] Rose JL, Zemansky G (2013) Updated Hydrogeological Evaluation of the Waiwera Geothermal Aquifer. GNS Scientific Consultancy Report 2013/67, GNS Institute of Geological & Nuclear Science, Wellington, New Zealand [3] Altmannsberger C (2015) Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand). BSc Thesis, University of Potsdam, Earth and Environmental Sciences (in German, unpublished)

  14. Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

  15. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

    2015-01-01

    water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses......), and the resulting minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is computed with the Streeter-Phelps equation and constrained to match Chinese water quality targets. The baseline water scarcity and operational costs are estimated to 15.6. billion. CNY/year. Compliance to water quality grade III causes a relatively...

  16. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P.

    2004-01-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  17. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ackere, Ann [HEC Lausanne, Internef, Universite de Lausanne, CH 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny (Switzerland); Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, Regent' s Park, London NW1 4SA (United Kingdom)

    2010-11-15

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  18. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackere, Ann van, E-mail: Ann.vanAckere@unil.c [HEC Lausanne, Internef, Universite de Lausanne, CH 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny (Switzerland); Ochoa, Patricia, E-mail: Patricia.Ochoa@edfenergy.co [London Business School, Regent' s Park, London NW1 4SA (United Kingdom)

    2010-11-15

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market.

  19. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ackere, Ann; Ochoa, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  20. Valuing hydrological alteration in Multi-Objective reservoir management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizzi, S.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2012-04-01

    Water management through dams and reservoirs is worldwide necessary to support key human-related activities ranging from hydropower production to water allocation for agricultural production, and flood risk mitigation. Advances in multi-objectives (MO) optimization techniques and ever growing computing power make it possible to design reservoir operating policies that represent Pareto-optimal tradeoffs between the multiple interests analysed. These progresses if on one hand are likely to enhance performances of commonly targeted objectives (such as hydropower production or water supply), on the other risk to strongly penalize all the interests not directly (i.e. mathematically) optimized within the MO algorithm. Alteration of hydrological regime, although is a well established cause of ecological degradation and its evaluation and rehabilitation are commonly required by recent legislation (as the Water Framework Directive in Europe), is rarely embedded as an objective in MO planning of optimal releases from reservoirs. Moreover, even when it is explicitly considered, the criteria adopted for its evaluation are doubted and not commonly trusted, undermining the possibility of real implementation of environmentally friendly policies. The main challenges in defining and assessing hydrological alterations are: how to define a reference state (referencing); how to define criteria upon which to build mathematical indicators of alteration (measuring); and finally how to aggregate the indicators in a single evaluation index that can be embedded in a MO optimization problem (valuing). This paper aims to address these issues by: i) discussing benefits and constrains of different approaches to referencing, measuring and valuing hydrological alteration; ii) testing two alternative indices of hydrological alteration in the context of MO problems, one based on the established framework of Indices of Hydrological Alteration (IHA, Richter et al., 1996), and a novel satisfying the

  1. Review and Evaluation of Reservoir Management Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-28

    Abstract The purpose of this report is to review and evaluate available infor- mation regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of...12 3 Operations Management Examples ............................................................................ 16...report is to review and evaluate available information regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of harmful algal ERDC/EL TR-17-11 2

  2. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  3. Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Castelletti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply, using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

  4. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs

  5. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  6. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-10-01

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  7. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-11-13

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Transition scenarios towards sustained Pu-management in China - 5504

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, C.; Drevon, C.; Favet, D.; Avrin, A.P.; Carlier, B.

    2015-01-01

    The Chinese nuclear reactor park is growing rapidly with already some 250 GWe projected to be operational by mid-century and with even larger nuclear reactor parks during the second half of this century to match the energy demand in a sustainable way. Such a large and fast growing nuclear reactor park goes with anticipated challenges with regard to the fuel cycle with essentially a focus on the rapidly growing inventory of used nuclear fuel. China is considering various options towards a more sustainable nuclear energy park with the recycling of fissile materials in various types of reactors being the backbone towards such sustainable nuclear future. This paper briefs on an analysis of the transition towards a continued responsible and flexible management of plutonium and uranium in this Chinese nuclear reactor park highlighting the results of nuclear energy systems scenario technical-economic analysis for LWR-MOX and LWR-SFR scenarios. Preliminary analysis show that the 2 described options lead to a sustainable closed cycle system while implementing early a responsible management of fast growing generated used fuel inventory

  9. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  10. USING E-COLLABORATION TO IMPROVE MANAGEMENT EDUCATION: THREE SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Noëlle Bessagnet

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential impact of collaborative technologies in improving management education. The first goal is to expose students to tools and practices that not only assist them with their current studies, but also serve to reinforce individual and team competencies that can facilitate their entry into the workforce. In their positions as future managers they will be expected to not only be familiar with common business practices but also to understand the implications of information technology for business; in this case with emphasis on tools and techniques that can help businesses flourish in the networked economy. With an ever-increasing recognition that e-learning tools are important for (re-training employees, these three scenarios offer examples of how business schools might expand the boundaries of e-collaboration to help their students. These experiments have been conducted in management programs. In the first two scenarios, students use collaborative platforms in some of their daily work. The third experiment is based on a student-centred design of a learning portal. Our experience reinforces a certain number of hypotheses influencing the impact of collaborative technologies in management education. To begin with, information systems are often flawed mirrors of the managerial system that they are designed to represent. Secondly, the potential value of collaborative technologies is strongly influenced by organizational contexts, both in and between the university and the business community. Thirdly, the effectiveness of collaborative technologies depends to a large degree upon the depth and coherence of learning objectives fixed for learning and work places. Finally, improving the effectiveness of collaborative technologies requires aligning the design of learning environments with the corporate cultures and visions we are trying to reproduce.

  11. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  12. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, Amarisa; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  14. Characteristics of a bottomland hardwood forest under greentree reservoir management in East Central Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael R. Guttery; Andrew W. Ezell

    2006-01-01

    Greentree reservoirs are a viable option for creating habitat and hunting opportunities for migrating waterfowl. Unfortunately, the prolonged annual flooding often associated with greentree reservoir management can be highly detrimental to many of the desirable tree species in these stands. In the summer of 2004, a total of 327 plot centers were established in a...

  15. Improved water management with the development of Snake Lake Reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, P.; Miller, D.; Webber, J.

    1998-01-01

    The $10.3 million Snake Lake Reservoir which is located south of the TransCanada Highway between Bassano and Brooks, in Alberta, was completed in 1997. It provides 19.1 million cubic meters of storage to improve the water supply for the irrigation of 29,000 hectares of agricultural land in the Eastern Irrigation District. One of challenges that engineers faced during the construction of the reservoir was the extremely soft dam foundation conditions. The resolution of this and other challenges are discussed. In addition to water storage, the reservoir also provides wildlife, recreation and aquaculture opportunities. 8 refs., 5 figs

  16. Nuclear Knowledge Management: Challenges and Approaches–Pakistan’s Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khurshid, S. J.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: Nuclear knowledge management has become very important for the nuclear sector of Pakistan in the current scenario. Pakistan Atomic Energy came into being in 1956 and large scale recruitment was done in 1957 and in 1973 to implement the program. The scientists and engineers hired then and trained from the best laboratories of USA and UK have retired leaving a knowledge gap. On the other side the Civil Nuclear Program of Pakistan is expanding tremendously and PAEC has to fulfill its first target of 8800 MW of energy by 2030 and of 40,000 MW by 2050. Besides having three power reactors, Pakistan is building two 325 MW, five 1000 MW reactors at Karachi, Muzfargrah and Chashma. This increasing development programme requires skilled and trained manpower for the whole nuclear cycle, the management of ageing nuclear installations and their safe decommissioning. There is a dire need of effective and efficient institutional memory for these new power projects, their efficient operation, environmental remediation around them and implementation of nuclear safety regulations. Pakistan Nuclear Society feels that it has to manage and disseminate nuclear knowledge in the scientific community, politicians and public to develop confidence in the practices and safety procedures of the nuclear program. (author

  17. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W.

    2006-06-01

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  18. Nuclear spent fuel management scenarios. Status and assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufek, J.; Arzhanov, V.; Gudowski, W. [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear and Reactor Physics

    2006-06-15

    The strategy for management of spent nuclear fuel from the Swedish nuclear power programme is interim storage for cooling and decay for about 30 years followed by direct disposal of the fuel in a geologic repository. In various contexts it is of interest to compare this strategy with other strategies that might be available in the future as a result of ongoing research and development. In particular partitioning and transmutation is one such strategy that is subject to considerable R and D-efforts within the European Union and in other countries with large nuclear programmes. To facilitate such comparisons for the Swedish situation, with a planned phase out of the nuclear power programme, SKB has asked the team at Royal Inst. of Technology to describe and explore some scenarios that might be applied to the Swedish programme. The results of this study are presented in this report. The following scenarios were studied by the help of a specially developed computer programme: Phase out by 2025 with direct disposal. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in BWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides as MOX in PWR. Burning plutonium and minor actinides in ADS. Combined LWR-MOX plus ADS. For the different scenarios nuclide inventories, waste amounts, costs, additional electricity production etc have been assessed. As a general conclusion it was found that BWR is more efficient for burning plutonium in MOX fuel than PWR. The difference is approximately 10%. Furthermore the BWR produces about 10% less americium inventory. An ADS reactor park can theoretically in an ideal case burn (transmute) 99% of the transuranium isotopes. The duration of such a scenario heavily depends on the interim time needed for cooling the spent fuel before reprocessing. Assuming 10 years for cooling of nuclear fuel from ADS, the duration will be at least 200 years under optimistic technical assumptions. The development and use of advanced pyro-processing with an interim cooling time of only

  19. Management Optimization of Saguling Reservoir with Bellman Dynamic Programming and “Du Couloir” Iterative Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Marselina

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly growth of population and industry sector have lead to an enhanced demand for electrical energy. One of the electricity providers in the area of Java-Madura Bali (Jamali is Saguling Reservoir. Saguling Reservoir is one of the three reservoirs that stem the flow of Citarum River in advance of to Jatiluhur and Cirata Reservoir. The average electricity production of Saguling Reservoir was 2,334,318.138 MWh/year in the period of 1986-2014. The water intake of Saguling Reservoir is the upstream Citarum Watershed with an area of 2340.88 km2 which also serves as the irrigation, inland fisheries, recreation, and other activities. An effort to improve the function of Saguling Reservoir in producing electrical energy is by optimizing the reservoir management. The optimization of Saguling Reservoir management in this study refers to Government Regulation No. 37/2010 on Dam/Reservoir Article 44 which states that the system of reservoir management consisting of the operation system in dry years, normal years, and wet years. In this research, the determination of the trajectory guideline in Saguling operation was divided in dry, normal and wet years. Trajectory guideline was conducted based on the electricity price of turbine inflow that various in every month. The determination of the trajectory guideline in various electricity price was done by using Program Dynamic Bellman (PD Bellman and “Du Couloir” iterative method which the objective to optimize the gain from electricity production. and “Du Couloir” iterative method was development of PD Bellman that can calculate the value of gain with a smaller discretization until 0,1 juta m3 effectively where PD Bellman just calculate until 10 million m3.  Smaller discretization can give maximum benefit from electricity production and the trajectory guideline will be closer to trajectory actual so optimization of Saguling operation will be achieved.

  20. Effects of dredging and macrophyte management on the fish species composition in an old Neotropical reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luiz Henríques Esguícero

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Aim: As part of the remodeling of an almost century-old dam, in the Rio Jacaré-Guaçu, the dredging and management of macrophytes were carried out in the Gavião Peixoto Reservoir (São Paulo State, Brazil. Data for the reservoir and a river stretch upstream the reservoir were compared, for evaluating the effects of the management procedures. Methods The fish fauna and physical and chemical factors were studied during five years, before (2005-2006 and after the recovery procedures (2007-2009, once a year, during the rainy season. Fishes were caught by gill nets, 10 m long and 1.5, 4, and 6 cm-mesh between adjacent knots. Results After the management procedures, the values of pH and dissolved oxygen increased in the reservoir, whereas conductivity decreased, bringing them closer to those of the upstream stretch. Species richness, diversity, and Catch per Unit Effort in number and biomass, increased in the reservoir after the management. Conclusions After the recovery procedures, the composition of the fish fauna in the reservoir was similar to that of the upstream stretch. The dredging and management of macrophytes in the reservoir benefited the fish fauna diversity, through improvement in water quality and space expansion.

  1. Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

    2017-08-15

    Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

  2. Management of complex multi-reservoir water distribution systems using advanced control theoretic tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Chmielowski, Wojciech Z

    2013-01-01

    This study discusses issues of optimal water management in a complex distribution system. The main elements of the water-management system under consideration are retention reservoirs, among which water transfers are possible, and a network of connections between these reservoirs and water treatment plants (WTPs). System operation optimisation involves determining the proper water transport routes and their flow volumes from the retention reservoirs to the WTPs, and the volumes of possible transfers among the reservoirs, taking into account transport-related delays for inflows, outflows and water transfers in the system. Total system operation costs defined by an assumed quality coefficient should be minimal. An analytical solution of the optimisation task so formulated has been obtained as a result of using Pontriagin’s maximum principle with reference to the quality coefficient assumed. Stable start and end conditions in reservoir state trajectories have been assumed. The researchers have taken into accou...

  3. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  4. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  5. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  6. Interreality in the management of psychological stress: a clinical scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Giuseppe; Raspelli, Simona; Pallavicini, Federica; Grassi, Alessandra; Algeri, Davide; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    The term "psychological stress" describes a situation in which a subject perceives that environmental demands tax or exceed his or her adaptive capacity. According to the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the best validated approach covering both stress management and stress treatment is the Cognitive Behavioral (CBT) approach. We aim to design, develop and test an advanced ICT based solution for the assessment and treatment of psychological stress that is able to improve the actual CBT approach. To reach this goal we will use the "interreality" paradigm integrating assessment and treatment within a hybrid environment, that creates a bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. Our claim is that bridging virtual experiences (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and emotional regulation) with real experiences (allowing both the identification of any critical stressors and the assessment of what has been learned) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, advanced sensors and PDA/mobile phones) is the best way to address the above limitations. To illustrate the proposed concept, a clinical scenario is also presented and discussed: Paola, a 45 years old nurse, with a mother affected by progressive senile dementia.

  7. Use of modified nanoparticles in oil and gas reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkenburg, D.H.; Chin, P.T.K.; Fischer, H.R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a water dispersed nano sensor cocktail based on InP/ZnS quantum dots (QDs) and atomic silver clusters with a bright and visible luminescence combined with optimized sensor functionalities for the water flooding process. The QDs and Ag nano sensors were tested in simulated reservoir

  8. Fishery management problems and possibilities on large southeastern reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, John W.

    1958-01-01

    Principal problems concerning the fisheries of large reservoirs in the Southeast are: inefficient and highly selective exploitation of fish stocks, and protection and reclamation of damaged or threatened fisheries in tailwaters and tributary streams. Seven mainstream reservoirs on which data are available support an average angling pressure of 4.9 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 16 pounds of sport fish and 6 pounds of food fish. Commercial take is 7 pounds per acre. The rate of catch of sport fish, based upon tag returns, is only 3 percent. Sixteen storage reservoirs support an average angling pressure of 5.0 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 13 pounds of sport fish and 1 pound of food fish. Commercial catch is of no significance. Average rate of catch of sport fish is 17 percent of the catchable population. Fish population studies indicate that there are twice as many sport fish and four times as many food fish in mainstream than there are in storage reservoirs.

  9. Design and modeling of reservoir operation strategies for sediment management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloff, C.J.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Heynert, K.V.; Mohamed, Y.A.

    2015-01-01

    Appropriate operation strategies that allow for sediment flushing and sluicing (sediment routing) can reduce rapid storage losses of (hydropower and water-supply) reservoirs. In this study we have shown, using field observations and computational models, that the efficiency of these operations

  10. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  11. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  12. Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

    2010-01-01

    This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

  13. Scenarios for waste management involving innovative systems (ADS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tommasi, J.; Bottollier-Curtet, H.; Massara, S.; Varaine, F.; Delpech, M.

    2001-01-01

    The global performance of reactor park scenarios based on innovative systems (Accelerator-Driven Systems, ADS) for transmutation is studied, based either on equilibrium recycling states or on high burn-up systems. The results of these first studies are preliminary but allow to assess the main parameters of the fuel cycle (inventories, mass balances, mass flows...), to evaluate the specific contributions of ADS on the main scenario parameters, and to compare subcritical systems to critical ones. (author)

  14. Low flows and reservoir management for the Durance River basin (Southern France) in the 2050s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    . A model of water management similar to the tools used by Electricité De France was calibrated to simulate the behavior of the three reservoirs Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. The results demonstrate the relatively good performance of this simplified model and its ability to represent the influence of reservoir operations on the natural hydrological river flow regime, the decision-making involved in water management and the interactions at regional scale. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance River basin. This presentation will focus on the specific tools developed within the project to simulate water management and water abstractions. The main conclusions related to the risk of water shortage in the 2050s and the level of satisfaction for each water use will be also discussed.

  15. Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

  16. Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

  17. Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

  18. 75 FR 40034 - Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek...-managed public land on Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort Patrick Henry, South Holston, Watauga, and... Proposed Land Use Alternative) identified in the final environmental impact statement (FEIS). Under the...

  19. Climate Change Adaptation in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Catchment: Testing Managed Aquifer Recharge and Increased Surface Reservoir Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Guyennon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Among different uses of freshwater, irrigation is the most impacting groundwater resource, leading to water table depletion and possible seawater intrusion. The unbalance between the availability of water resources and demand is currently exacerbated and could become worse in the near future in accordance with climate change observations and scenarios provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. In this context, Increasing Maximum Capacity of the surface reservoir (IMC and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR are adaptation measures that have the potential to enhance water supply systems resiliency. In this paper, a multiple-users and multiple-resources-Water Supply System (WSS model is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of these two adaptation strategies in a context of overexploited groundwater under the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. The presented a case study that is located in the Puglia, a semi-arid region of South Italy characterized by a conspicuous water demand for irrigation. We observed that, although no significant long-term trend affects the proposed precipitation scenarios, the expected temperature increase highly impacts the WSS resources due to the associated increase of water demand for irrigation purposes. Under the RCP 4.5 the MAR scenario results are more effective than the IMC during long term wet periods (typically 5 years and successfully compensates the impact on the groundwater resources. Differently, under RCP 8.5, due to more persistent dry periods, both adaptation scenarios fail and groundwater resource become exposed to massive sea water intrusion during the second half of the century. We conclude that the MAR scenario is a suitable adaptation strategy to face the expected future changes in climate, although mitigation actions to reduce green-house gases are strongly required.

  20. Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying

  1. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  2. Reservoir compartmentalization and management strategies: Lessons learned in the Illinois basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grube, J.P.; Crockett, J.E.; Huff, B.G. [and others

    1997-08-01

    A research project jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Illinois State Geological Survey focused on the Cypress and Aux Vases Formations (Mississippian), major clastic reservoirs in the Illinois Basin. Results from the research showed that understanding the nature and distribution of reservoir compartments, and using effective reservoir management strategies, can significantly improve recovery efficiencies from oil fields in this mature basin. Compartments can be most effectively drained where they are geologically well defined and reservoir management practices are coordinated through unified, compartment-wide, development programs. Our studies showed that the Cypress and Aux Vases reservoirs contain lateral and vertical permeability barriers forming compartments that range in size from isolated, interlaminated sandstone and shale beds to sandstone bodies tens of feet in thickness and more than a mile in length. Stacked or shingled, genetically similar sandstone bodies are commonly separated by thin impermeable intervals that can be difficult to distinguish on logs and can, therefore, cause correlation problems, even between wells drilled on spacing of less than ten acres. Lateral separation of sandstone bodies causes similar problems. Reservoir compartmentalization reduces primary and particularly secondary recovery by trapping pockets of by-passed or banked oil. Compartments can be detected by comparing recovery factors of genetically similar sandstone bodies within a field; using packers to separate commingled intervals and analyzing fluid recoveries and pressures; making detailed core-to-log calibrations that identify compartment boundaries; and analyzing pressure data from waterflood programs.

  3. New developments in high resolution borehole seismology and their applications to reservoir development and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Single-well seismology, Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiles (VSP`s) and Crosswell seismology are three new seismic techniques that we jointly refer to as borehole seismology. Borehole seismic techniques are of great interest because they can obtain much higher resolution images of oil and gas reservoirs than what is obtainable with currently used seismic techniques. The quality of oil and gas reservoir management decisions depend on the knowledge of both the large and the fine scale features in the reservoirs. Borehole seismology is capable of mapping reservoirs with an order of magnitude improvement in resolution compared with currently used technology. In borehole seismology we use a high frequency seismic source in an oil or gas well and record the signal in the same well, in other wells, or on the surface of the earth.

  4. Managing geological uncertainty in CO2-EOR reservoir assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkenhuysen, Kris; Piessens, Kris

    2014-05-01

    Recently the European Parliament has agreed that an atlas for the storage potential of CO2 is of high importance to have a successful commercial introduction of CCS (CO2 capture and geological storage) technology in Europe. CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is often proposed as a promising business case for CCS, and likely has a high potential in the North Sea region. Traditional economic assessments for CO2-EOR largely neglect the geological reality of reservoir uncertainties because these are difficult to introduce realistically in such calculations. There is indeed a gap between the outcome of a reservoir simulation and the input values for e.g. cost-benefit evaluations, especially where it concerns uncertainty. The approach outlined here is to turn the procedure around, and to start from which geological data is typically (or minimally) requested for an economic assessment. Thereafter it is evaluated how this data can realistically be provided by geologists and reservoir engineers. For the storage of CO2 these parameters are total and yearly CO2 injection capacity, and containment or potential on leakage. Specifically for the EOR operation, two additional parameters can be defined: the EOR ratio, or the ratio of recovered oil over injected CO2, and the CO2 recycling ratio of CO2 that is reproduced after breakthrough at the production well. A critical but typically estimated parameter for CO2-EOR projects is the EOR ratio, taken in this brief outline as an example. The EOR ratio depends mainly on local geology (e.g. injection per well), field design (e.g. number of wells), and time. Costs related to engineering can be estimated fairly good, given some uncertainty range. The problem is usually to reliably estimate the geological parameters that define the EOR ratio. Reliable data is only available from (onshore) CO2-EOR projects in the US. Published studies for the North Sea generally refer to these data in a simplified form, without uncertainty ranges, and are

  5. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...

  6. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Oil Reservoirs Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea

    expensive gradient computation by using high-order ESDIRK (Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta) temporal integration methods and continuous adjoints. The high order integration scheme allows larger time steps and therefore faster solution times. We compare gradient computation by the continuous...... gradient-based optimization and the required gradients are computed by the adjoint method. We propose the use of efficient high order implicit time integration methods for the solution of the forward and the adjoint equations of the dynamical model. The Ensemble Kalman filter is used for data assimilation...... equivalent strategy is not justified for the particular case studied in this paper. The third contribution of this thesis is a mean-variance method for risk mitigation in production optimization of oil reservoirs. We introduce a return-risk bicriterion objective function for the profit-risk tradeoff...

  7. Radioactive waste management and disposal scenario for fusion power reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabara, Takashi; Yamano, Naoki [Sumitomo Atomic Energy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao

    1997-10-01

    The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a light water reactor (LWR) have been evaluated and compared. At first, the amount and the radioactive level of the radwaste generated in five fusion reactors ware evaluated by an activation calculation code. Next, a possible radwaste disposal scenario applicable to fusion radwaste in Japan is considered and the disposal cost evaluated under certain assumptions. The exposure doses are evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-rays during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical LWR was estimated based on a literature survey and the disposal cost was evaluated using the same assumptions as for the fusion reactors. It is found that the relative cost of disposal is strongly dependent on the cost for interim storage of medium level waste of fusion reactors and the cost of high level waste for the LWR. (author)

  8. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  9. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0, landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1, incineration (Sc-2, incineration combined with composting (Sc-3, and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4. The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6. The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4.

  10. Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load

  11. Optimal Reoperation of Multi-Reservoirs for Integrated Watershed Management with Multiple Benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Constructing reservoirs can make more efficient use of water resources for human society. However, the negative impacts of these projects on the environment are often ignored. Optimal reoperation of reservoirs, which considers not only in socio-economic values but also environmental benefits, is increasingly important. A model of optimal reoperation of multi-reservoirs for integrated watershed management with multiple benefits was proposed to alleviate the conflict between water use and environmental deterioration. The social, economic, water quality and ecological benefits were respectively taken into account as the scheduling objectives and quantified according to economic models. River minimum ecological flows and reservoir water levels based on flood control were taken as key constraint conditions. Feasible search discrete differential dynamic programming (FS-DDDP was used to run the model. The proposed model was used in the upstream of the Nanpan River, to quantitatively evaluate the difference between optimal reoperation and routine operation. The results indicated that the reoperation could significantly increase the water quality benefit and have a minor effect on the benefits of power generation and irrigation under different hydrological years. The model can be readily adapted to other multi-reservoir systems for water resources management.

  12. Learning to manage quality in a multiple reservoir system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of water policies based on integrated water management principles promotes the development of multistakeholder platforms to manage water resources at catchment level. This is the case of the Alto-Tietê watershed, the urban catchment encompassing the São Paulo metropolis in Brazil. The dynamic ...

  13. Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels of skill...

  14. Development of a management tool for reservoirs in Mediterranean environments based on uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Beas, R.; Moñino, A.; Polo, M. J.

    2012-05-01

    In compliance with the development of the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management models. These models should include the operational and technical aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the area. This paper shows the development of a management model for Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being well established depending on demand, and the probability of failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a tool for decision making.

  15. Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fikru Fentaw Abera

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer’s Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM, a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

  16. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-01-01

    The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

  17. Optimal scenario balance of reduction in costs and greenhouse gas emissions for municipal solid waste management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓娜; 张强; 陈广武; 齐长青; 崔文谦; 张于峰; 马洪亭

    2015-01-01

    To reduce carbon intensity, an improved management method balancing the reduction in costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required for Tianjin’s waste management system. Firstly, six objective functions, namely, cost minimization, GHG minimization, eco-efficiency minimization, cost maximization, GHG maximization and eco-efficiency maximization, are built and subjected to the same constraints with each objective function corresponding to one scenario. Secondly, GHG emissions and costs are derived from the waste flow of each scenario. Thirdly, the range of GHG emissions and costs of other potential scenarios are obtained and plotted through adjusting waste flow with infinitely possible step sizes according to the correlation among the above six scenarios. And the optimal scenario is determined based on this range. The results suggest the following conclusions. 1) The scenarios located on the border between scenario cost minimization and GHG minimization create an optimum curve, and scenario GHG minimization has the smallest eco-efficiency on the curve;2) Simple pursuit of eco-efficiency minimization using fractional programming may be unreasonable; 3) Balancing GHG emissions from incineration and landfills benefits Tianjin’s waste management system as it reduces GHG emissions and costs.

  18. An integrated approach to model the biomagnification of organic pollutants in aquatic food webs of the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir ecosystem using adapted pollution scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz-Starke, Björn; Ottermanns, Richard; Rings, Ursula; Floehr, Tilman; Hollert, Henner; Hou, Junli; Li, Bo; Wu, Ling Ling; Yuan, Xingzhong; Strauch, Katrin; Wei, Hu; Norra, Stefan; Holbach, Andreas; Westrich, Bernhard; Schäffer, Andreas; Roß-Nickoll, Martina

    2013-10-01

    The impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) at the Yangtze River caused large flooding of urban, industrial, and agricultural areas, and profound land use changes took place. Consequently, substantial amounts of organic and inorganic pollutants were released into the reservoir. Additionally, contaminants and nutrients are entering the reservoir by drift, drainage, and runoff from adjacent agricultural areas as well as from sewage of industry, aquacultures, and households. The main aim of the presented research project is a deeper understanding of the processes that determines the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants, i.e., mainly pesticides, in aquatic food webs under the newly developing conditions of the TGR. The project is part of the Yangtze-Hydro environmental program, financed by the German Ministry of Education and Science. In order to test combinations of environmental factors like nutrients and pollution, we use an integrated modeling approach to study the potential accumulation and biomagnification. We describe the integrative modeling approach and the consecutive adaption of the AQUATOX model, used as modeling framework for ecological risk assessment. As a starting point, pre-calibrated simulations were adapted to Yangtze-specific conditions (regionalization). Two exemplary food webs were developed by a thorough review of the pertinent literature. The first typical for the flowing conditions of the original Yangtze River and the Daning River near the city of Wushan, and the second for the stagnant reservoir characteristics of the aforementioned region that is marked by an intermediate between lake and large river communities of aquatic organisms. In close cooperation with German and Chinese partners of the Yangtze-Hydro Research Association, other site-specific parameters were estimated. The MINIBAT project contributed to the calibration of physicochemical and bathymetric parameters, and the TRANSMIC project delivered

  19. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

  20. Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vajk, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

  1. Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischlein, Miriam; Smith, Timothy M.; Wilson, Elizabeth J.

    2009-01-01

    An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO 2 annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO 2 emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.

  2. Statewide planning scenario synthesis : transportation congestion measurement and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-09-01

    This study is a review of current practices in 13 states to: (1) measure traffic congestion and its costs; and (2) manage congestion with programs and techniques that do not involve the building of new highway capacity. In regard to the measures of c...

  3. The development of area wide traffic management scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Zuylen, H.J.; Lu, S.; Li, J.; Yusen, C.

    2014-01-01

    Traffic management in cities with congestion is a big challenge with still unused opportunities. Intersection control is a corner stone but this should be done in an area-wide context. The dominant traffic process on urban roads is the traffic flow on the intersections. Spill back is a most

  4. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  5. Scenario Of Solid Waste Management In Hetauda Municipality, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bigyan Neupane

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to enlighten the solid waste management of Hetauda Municipality in Makwanpur district of an area of 44.5 sq. km. The total human population of the municipality is 84,671 (CBS 2011. Out of 11 wards, 5 wards (1, 2, 3, 4 and 10 were selected for the present study. In total 50 households, 10 institutions and 10 commercial sectors were selected from studied wards from which samples of different types of wastes were collected, segregated and weighed. Weight was calculated using a digital spring balance and a bag 0.043 m3 was used for the estimation of volume. Organic wastes were found to be dominant in the household (51.73% and commercial sectors (61.70% whereas in institutions, plastic (50.36% and papers (38.19% were prevailing. The findings revealed that per capita 155.4 gm/person/day household waste was generated in Hetauda Municipality. The residents are also aware of the harmful effects of the wastes, and demand an effective solid waste management services. Though they are aware about the sustainable management of wastes, due to erratic collection of wastes, some of them throw the wastes in the open lands - The local people also participate in the awareness campaigns organized by local NGOs and municipal. Solid waste management strategies are timely need for an effective management of anthropogenic wastes. Regular waste collection, improvement of dumping sites and sufficient number of composting plants are recommended in the municipality. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 105-114 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9214

  6. Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng

    2012-05-01

    This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs: A framework for making management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rast, W.; Holland, M.

    1988-01-01

    The development of management strategies for the protection of environmental quality usually involves consideration both of technical and nontechnical issues. A logical, step-by-step framework for development of such strategies is provided. Its application to the control of cultured eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs illustrates its potential usefulness. From the perspective of the policymaker, the main consideration is that the eutrophication-related water quality of a lake or reservoir can be managed for given water uses. The approach presented here allows the rational assessment of relevant water-quality parameters and establishment of water-quality goals, consideration of social and other nontechnical issues, the possibilities of public involvement in the decision-making process, and a reasonable economic analysis within a management framework.

  8. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  9. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results; Impact des changements climatiques sur les plans de gestion des reservoirs Saint-Francois et Aylmer : resultats preliminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R; Fortin, L G; Pugin, S; Cyr, J F; Picard, F; Poirier, C; Lacombe, P [Centre d' Expertise Hydrique du Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Service de la Securite des Barrages; Chaumont, D; Desrochers, G; Vescovi, L; Roy, R [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-09-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs.

  10. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results; Impact des changements climatiques sur les plans de gestion des reservoirs Saint-Francois et Aylmer : resultats preliminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P. [Centre d' Expertise Hydrique du Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Service de la Securite des Barrages; Chaumont, D.; Desrochers, G.; Vescovi, L.; Roy, R. [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-09-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs.

  11. Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

    2015-01-01

    average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

  12. Scenarios of biodiversity exploring possible futures for management

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia C.A.; Dray A.; Aubert S.; Reibelt L.M.; Waeber P.O.

    2015-01-01

    Problems of natural resources management are often wicked problems. They involve multiple stakeholders with different worldviews different needs and agendas in a world with pervasive uncertainties. The answers to such problems are not technical fixes but political processes that engage the stakeholders in problem solving iterative loops. In many cases deforestation and degradation are the rational choice not the result of a lack of awareness or knowledge. Mainstreaming biodiversity conservati...

  13. Putting Flow–Ecology Relationships into Practice: A Decision-Support System to Assess Fish Community Response to Water-Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Cartwright

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  14. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  15. Adaptive Process Management in Highly Dynamic and Pervasive Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano de Leoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Process Management Systems (PMSs are currently more and more used as a supporting tool for cooperative processes in pervasive and highly dynamic situations, such as emergency situations, pervasive healthcare or domotics/home automation. But in all such situations, designed processes can be easily invalidated since the execution environment may change continuously due to frequent unforeseeable events. This paper aims at illustrating the theoretical framework and the concrete implementation of SmartPM, a PMS that features a set of sound and complete techniques to automatically cope with unplanned exceptions. PMS SmartPM is based on a general framework which adopts the Situation Calculus and Indigolog.

  16. Developing local scenarios to nitrogen management using participatory planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piil, Kristoffer; Wiborg, Irene; Andersen, Peter Stubkjær

    2017-01-01

    incurred significant financial burdens on farmers, as well as restricting their freedom of operation on their farms. Over the last years, there has been a shift towards a targeted regulation that takes local conditions into account, in order to increase the cost effectiveness of mitigation strategies...... to be taken into account when involving a community in participatory planning regarding nitrogen management. As part of a more targeted Danish regulation, a system of catchment officers is currently being established to aide in formulating mitigation strategies that are adapted to local needs and local...

  17. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  18. NN-Based Implicit Stochastic Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Systems Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Sangiorgio

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-reservoir systems management is complex because of the uncertainty on future events and the variety of purposes, usually conflicting, of the involved actors. An efficient management of these systems can help improving resource allocation, preventing political crisis and reducing the conflicts between the stakeholders. Bellman stochastic dynamic programming (SDP is the most famous among the many proposed approaches to solve this optimal control problem. Unfortunately, SDP is affected by the curse of dimensionality: computational effort increases exponentially with the complexity of the considered system (i.e., number of reservoirs, and the problem rapidly becomes intractable. This paper proposes an implicit stochastic optimization approach for the solution of the reservoir management problem. The core idea is using extremely flexible functions, such as artificial neural networks (NN, for designing release rules which approximate the optimal policies obtained by an open-loop approach. These trained NNs can then be used to take decisions in real time. The approach thus requires a sufficiently long series of historical or synthetic inflows, and the definition of a compromise solution to be approximated. This work analyzes with particular emphasis the importance of the information which represents the input of the control laws, investigating the effects of different degrees of completeness. The methodology is applied to the Nile River basin considering the main management objectives (minimization of the irrigation water deficit and maximization of the hydropower production, but can be easily adopted also in other cases.

  19. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, E D

    2005-01-01

    In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

  20. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

    2015-01-01

    Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

  1. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine S. Jarnevich

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion

  2. Robust Economic MPC for a Power Management Scenario with Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a novel incorporation of probabilistic constraints and Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP) with Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC). Hereby the performance of the controller is robustyfied in the presence of both model and forecast uncertainties. Economic MPC is a receding...... horizon controller that minimizes an economic objective function and we have previously demonstrated its usage to include a refrigeration system as a controllable power consumer with a portfolio of power generators such that total cost is minimized. The main focus for our work is the power management...... an optimal solution to an infeasible or very expensive solution. The main contribution of this paper is the Finite Impulse Response (FIR) formulation of the system models allowing us to describe and handle model uncertainties in the framework of probabilistic constraints. Our new solution using this setup...

  3. Using e-collaboration to improve management education: three scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Schlenker

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential impact of collaborative technologies in improving managementeducation. The first goal is to expose students to tools and practices that not only assist themwith their current studies, but also serve to reinforce individual and team competencies that canfacilitate their entry into the workforce. In their positions as future managers they will beexpected to not only be familiar with common business practices but also to understand theimplications of information technology for business; in this case with emphasis on tools andtechniques that can help businesses flourish in the networked economy. With an ever-increasingrecognition that e-learning tools are important for (re-training employees, these three scenariosoffer examples of how business schools might expand the boundaries of e-collaboration to helptheir students. These experiments have been conducted in management programs. In the first twoscenarios, students use collaborative platforms in some of their daily work. The third experimentis based on a student-centred design of a learning portal. Our experience reinforces a certainnumber of hypotheses influencing the impact of collaborative technologies in managementeducation. To begin with, information systems are often flawed mirrors of the managerial systemthat they are designed to represent. Secondly, the potential value of collaborative technologies isstrongly influenced by organizational contexts, both in and between the university and thebusiness community. Thirdly, the effectiveness of collaborative technologies depends to a largedegree upon the depth and coherence of learning objectives fixed for learning and work places.Finally, improving the effectiveness of collaborative technologies requires aligning the design oflearning environments with the corporate cultures and visions we are trying to reproduce.

  4. Public acceptance of management methods under different human-wildlife conflict scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Georgari, Marina; Baltzi, Kerasia; Baltzi, Ioanna

    2017-02-01

    Wildlife management seeks to minimise public controversy for successful application of wildlife control methods. Human dimensions research in wildlife seeks a better understanding of public preferences for effective human-wildlife conflict resolution. In face to face interviews, 630 adults in Greece were asked to rate on a 5-point Likert-like scale their acceptance of 3 management methods, i.e., do nothing, non-lethal control, and lethal control, in the context of 5 human-wildlife conflict scenarios: 1) corvids damage crops; 2) starlings damage crops; 3) starlings foul urban structures; 4) coypus damage crops; and 5) coypus transfer disease. Univariate GLMs determined occupation, hunting membership and their interaction as the stronger predictors of public acceptance, generating 4 stakeholder groups: the general public, farmers, hunters, and farmers-hunters. Differences in acceptance and consensus among stakeholder groups were assessed using the Potential for Conflict Index 2 (PCI 2 ). All 4 stakeholder groups agreed that doing nothing was unacceptable and non-lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios, with generally high consensus within and between groups. The lethal control method was more controversial and became increasingly more acceptable as the severity of scenarios was increased and between non-native and native species. Lethal control was unacceptable for the general public in all scenarios. Farmers accepted lethal methods in the corvids and starlings scenarios, were neutral in the coypus damage crops scenario, whereas they accepted lethal control when coypus transfer disease. Hunters' opinion was neutral in the corvids, starlings and coypus damage crops and starlings foul urban structures scenarios, but they accepted lethal methods in the coypus transfer disease scenario. Farmers-hunters considered lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios. Implications from this study could be used for designing a socio-ecological approach which incorporates

  5. A study on the safety of spent fuel management. A scenario study on spent fuel management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chun, Kwan Sik; Park, Hyun Soo; Ahn, Jin Soo; Hwang, Joo Ho; Choi, Jong Won; Kim, Yeon Soo; Park, Ju Hwan; Chung, Choong Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., Daeduk (Korea, Republic of)

    1992-03-01

    In order to produce data applicable for the long-term policy making of spent fuel management and to suggest a basic scenario suitable to domestic situation, the pre-conceptual design of reference disposal facilities for the spent fuel and the vitrified high level radioactive waste from its reprocessing, has been performed. From the results of the pre-conceptual study, further research and development areas to accumulate the disposal technology are suggested. In addition, the physico-chemical properties and functional characteristics of domestic bentonite are analyzed to assess its applicability as a buffer material which would play a major role for the safe disposal of highly active waste including spent fuels. (Author).

  6. Local Water Management of Small Reservoirs: Lessons from Two Case Studies in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilmy Sally

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Burkina Faso is actively pursuing the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM in its development plans. Several policy and institutional mechanisms have been put in place, including the adoption of a national IWRM action plan (PAGIRE and the establishment so far of 30 local water management committees (Comités Locaux de l’Eau, or CLE. The stated purpose of the CLE is to take responsibility for managing water at sub-basin level. The two case studies discussed in this paper illustrate gaps between the policy objective of promoting IWRM on the one hand, and the realities associated with its practical on-the-ground implementation on the other. A significant adjustment that occurred in practice is the fact that the two CLE studied have been set up as entities focused on reservoir management, whereas it is envisioned that a CLE would constitute a platform for sub-basin management. This reflects a concern to minimise conflict and optimally manage the country’s primary water resource and illustrates the type of pragmatic actions that have to be taken to make IWRM a reality. It is also observed that the local water management committees have not been able to satisfactorily address questions regarding access to, and allocation of, water, which are crucial for the satisfactory functioning of the reservoirs. Water resources in the reservoirs appear to be controlled by the dominant user. In order to correct this trend, measures to build mutual trust and confidence among water users 'condemned' to work together to manage their common resource are suggested, foremost of which is the need to collect and share reliable data. Awareness of power relationships among water user groups and building on functioning, already existing formal or informal arrangements for water sharing are key determinants for successful implementation of the water reform process underway.

  7. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

    OpenAIRE

    Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; Lemay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists' confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods: Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions w...

  8. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  9. Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

    2017-12-01

    Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the

  10. The Lorenzini Foundation in a changing scenario of patient management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peracino, A; Paoletti, R

    2009-06-10

    The loss of life, disability, and economic burden attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Europe has created an urgent need for all stakeholders in CVD prevention to partner together to address the barriers in local health policy and produce effective programs in individual and population risk reduction and rational use of health services. Countries have a legal and moral obligation to achieve the highest standard of CV health care for citizens and to improve national health care systems accordingly. As part of a vision for future potential opportunities in CVD prevention, the Lorenzini Foundation would like to raise awareness of several key areas among the European authorities: Integration of interventions aimed at several risk factors within an individual country's health care system; implementation of a comprehensive approach combining policy development, capacity building, partnership and information support at all levels; promotion of transversal health policies, including coordinated action outside of the health sector to address major determinants of ill health; a combination of health policy and high-risk strategies to link health promotion, public health services, primary care, and hospital care; and, finally, reduction in ethnic, cultural, socioeconomic, and gender inequalities to multiple risk factor management among and within countries through use of cost-effective medications and medical technologies.

  11. Integrated Water Basin Management Including a Large Pit Lake and a Water Supply Reservoir: The Mero-Barcés Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Jordi; Juncosa-Rivera, Ricardo; Hernández-Anguiano, Horacio; Muñoz-Ibáñez, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Water resource managers attempt to minimize conflicts among users, preserve the environment as much as possible, and satisfy user necessities at a minimum cost. Several European directives indirectly address mine restoration policies, with a goal of minimizing negative impacts and adding social and environmental value where possible. Water management must consider water sources, ecological flows, flood control, and variability in the demands for urban, industrial, and agricultural uses. In the context of the present study, the city of A Coruña is located in Galicia (NW Spain). The water supply system for this city and surrounding municipalities (~400.000 inhabitants) is based on the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir. In cases when precipitation is scarce (e.g. no rain for more than seven consecutive months) and there is a seasonal increase in demand significantly stress the supply system so that, as occurred in 2010, shortages and water supply restrictions need to be considered. This is a clear indication of that, at present, the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir has not enough capacity to cope with a scenario of increasing water demand (due to the vegetative and seasonal increase of population) and hydric stress likely connected with the widely acknowledged climate change. In the present context of monetary resources scarcity and society concern with respect large new public work projects, the construction of a new dam is challenging. However the opportunity provided by the recent flooding of the Meirama open pit (a large mine void that has been forced-flooded for its reclamation and it is located in the headwaters of one of the rivers draining towards the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir) proves to be a significant new asset that will help to improve the future water management scenarios under the acknowledged uncertain conditions. In this study we have studied in detail the hydrochemistry of the affected systems (lake, river and reservoir) in order to make clear whether or not the

  12. The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Todini

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc. or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

  13. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, Bruno; De Vincenzo, Annamaria; Ferone, Claudio; Messina, Francesco; Colangelo, Francesco; Cioffi, Raffaele

    2014-07-31

    Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. ) represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  14. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Molino

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  15. Estimated radiation doses resulting if an exploratory borehole penetrates a pressurized brine reservoir assumed to exist below the WIPP repository horizon: a single hole scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, S.T.

    1982-03-01

    A radiation dose consequence analysis has been performed for a postulated scenario in which an exploratory gas or oil well-bore penetrates the repository and intercepts a brine reservoir in the Castile formation. The brine, corings and drilling mud are contained in a one acre holding pond on the surface. Upon the completion of drilling activities the dried holding pond area is reclaimed with a bulldozer to its original topographic conformation. The estimated radiation bone dose commitments to (1) a bulldozer operator, and (2) a member of a farm family 500 meters down wind are summarized for three penetration event times. The highest estimated 50 year bone dose commitment to an individual reclaiming the contaminated holding pond area was determined to be 590 mrem from the inhalation of CH-TRU wastes resuspended into the atmosphere at an event time of 100 years post-closure. A second dose model using a specific activity approach is developed in Appendix C for this same individual where an upper 50 year dose commitment of 450 mrem is calculated. Both of these derived estimates may be compared to the 5800 mrem to bone surfaces which may be expected from natural background radiation to an individual in the United States over a fifty year period

  16. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  17. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  18. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2016-09-08

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2014, diversions of about 216,000 acre-feet from the Virgin River to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir stage and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2014, about 29,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, about 31,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2014, about 127,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer.Water quality continued to be monitored at various wells in Sand Hollow during 2013–14 to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Changing geochemical conditions at monitoring wells WD 4 and WD 12 indicate rising groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, which could be a precursor to the arrival of reservoir recharge.

  19. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Marston, Thomas M.

    2011-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2009, total surface-water diversions of about 154,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed it to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir water-level altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2009, a total of about 13,000 acre-feet of groundwater has been withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 14,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir.From 2002 through 2009, about 86,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water-quality sampling was conducted at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge moving through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2010, this recharge arrived at monitoring wells within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir.

  20. Analytical methodology for optimization of waste management scenarios in nuclear installation decommissioning process - 16148

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachar, Matej; Necas, Vladimir; Daniska, Vladimir; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek

    2009-01-01

    The nuclear installation decommissioning process is characterized by production of large amount of various radioactive and non-radioactive waste that has to be managed, taking into account its physical, chemical, toxic and radiological properties. Waste management is considered to be one of the key issues within the frame of the decommissioning process. During the decommissioning planning period, the scenarios covering possible routes of materials release into the environment and radioactive waste disposal, should be discussed and evaluated. Unconditional and conditional release to the environment, long-term storage at the nuclear site, near surface or deep geological disposal and relevant material management techniques for achieving the final status should be taken into account in the analysed scenarios. At the level of the final decommissioning plan, it is desirable to have the waste management scenario optimized for local specific facility conditions taking into account a national decommissioning background. The analytical methodology for the evaluation of decommissioning waste management scenarios, presented in the paper, is based on the materials and radioactivity flow modelling, which starts from waste generation activities like pre-dismantling decontamination, selected methods of dismantling, waste treatment and conditioning, up to materials release or conditioned radioactive waste disposal. The necessary input data for scenarios, e.g. nuclear installation inventory database (physical and radiological data), waste processing technologies parameters or material release and waste disposal limits, have to be considered. The analytical methodology principles are implemented into the standardised decommissioning parameters calculation code OMEGA, developed in the DECOM company. In the paper the examples of the methodology implementation for the scenarios optimization are presented and discussed. (authors)

  1. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; Lemay, Kate; Armour, Carol L

    2014-01-01

    To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists' confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way.

  2. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach...

  3. Mercury bioaccumulation in the food web of Three Gorges Reservoir (China): Tempo-spatial patterns and effect of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jun [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Zhou, Qiong, E-mail: hainan@mail.hzau.edu.cn [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Yuan, Gailing; He, Xugang [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Xie, Ping [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072 (China)

    2015-09-15

    Tempo-spatial patterns of mercury bioaccumulation and tropho-dynamics, and the potential for a reservoir effect were evaluated in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) from 2011 to 2012, using total mercury concentrations (THg) and stable isotopes (δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N) of food web components (seston, aquatic invertebrates and fish). Hg concentrations in aquatic invertebrates and fish indicated a significant temporal trend associated with regular seasonal water-level manipulation. This includes water level lowering to allow for storage of water during the wet season (summer); a decrease of water levels from September to June providing a setting for flood storage. Hg concentrations in organisms were the highest after flooding. Higher Hg concentrations in fish were observed at the location farthest from the dam. Hg concentrations in water and sediment were correlated. Compared with the reservoirs of United States and Canada, TGR had lower trophic magnification factors (0.046–0.066), that are explained primarily by organic carbon concentrations in sediment, and the effect of “growth dilution”. Based on comparison before and after the impoundment of TGR, THg concentration in biota did not display an obvious long-term reservoir effect due to (i) short time since inundation, (ii) regular water discharge associated with water-level regulation, and/or (iii) low organic matter content in the sediment. - Highlights: • Hg concentrations were measured in biota of the main stem of 3 Gorges Reservoir. • Fish Hg concentration post-flood period > pre-flood period > flood period. • Fish Hg concentrations were the highest farthest from the dam. • THg in fish 2 years after inundation were the same as before impoundment. • Low biomagnification was ascribed to low DOC content in the sediment.

  4. Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

    2017-01-01

    The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

  5. Agricultural non-point source pollution management in a reservoir watershed based on ecological network analysis of soil nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wen; Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan

    2018-03-01

    The Miyun Reservoir plays a pivotal role in providing drinking water for the city of Beijing. In this research, ecological network analysis and scenario analysis were integrated to explore soil nitrogen cycling of chestnut and Chinese pine forests in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, as well as to seek favorable fertilization modes to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Ecological network analysis results showed that (1) the turnover time was 0.04 to 0.37 year in the NH 4 + compartment and were 15.78 to 138.36 years in the organic N compartment; (2) the Finn cycling index and the ratio of indirect to direct flow were 0.73 and 11.92 for the chestnut forest model, respectively. Those of the Chinese pine forest model were 0.88 and 29.23, respectively; and (3) in the chestnut forest model, NO 3 - accounted for 96% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by plant N (2%), NH 4 + (1%), and organic N (1%). In the Chinese pine forest, NH 4 + accounted for 56% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by organic N (34%) and NO 3 - (10%). Fertilization mode was identified as the main factor affecting soil N export. To minimize NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs while maintaining the current plant yield (i.e., 7.85e0 kg N/year), a fertilization mode of 162.50 kg N/year offered by manure should be adopted. Whereas, to achieve a maximum plant yield (i.e., 3.35e1 kg N/year) while reducing NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs, a fertilization mode of 325.00 kg N/year offered by manure should be utilized. This research is of wide suitability to support agricultural non-point source pollution management at the watershed scale.

  6. Centralized versus distributed reservoirs: an investigation of their implications on environmental flows and sustainable water resources management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Eriyagama

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Storage of surface water is widely regarded as a form of insurance against rainfall variability. However, creation of surface storage often endanger the functions of natural ecosystems, and, in turn, ecosystem services that benefit humans. The issues of optimal size, placement and the number of reservoirs in a river basin – which maximizes sustainable benefits from storage – remain subjects for debate. This study examines the above issues through the analysis of a range of reservoir configurations in the Malwatu Oya river basin in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The study produced multiple surface storage development pathways for the basin under different scenarios of environmental flow (EF releases and reservoir network configurations. The EF scenarios ranged from zero to very healthy releases. It is shown that if the middle ground between the two extreme EF scenarios is considered, the theoretical maximum safe yield from surface storage is about 65–70 % of the mean annual runoff (MAR of the basin. It is also identified that although distribution of reservoirs in the river network reduces the cumulative yield from the basin, this cumulative yield is maximized if the ratio among the storage capacities placed in each sub drainage basin is equivalent to the ratio among their MAR. The study suggests a framework to identify drainage regions having higher surface storage potential, to plan for the right distribution of storage capacity within a river basin, as well as to plan for EF allocations.

  7. Centralized versus distributed reservoirs: an investigation of their implications on environmental flows and sustainable water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriyagama, Nishadi; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Udamulla, Lakshika

    2018-06-01

    Storage of surface water is widely regarded as a form of insurance against rainfall variability. However, creation of surface storage often endanger the functions of natural ecosystems, and, in turn, ecosystem services that benefit humans. The issues of optimal size, placement and the number of reservoirs in a river basin - which maximizes sustainable benefits from storage - remain subjects for debate. This study examines the above issues through the analysis of a range of reservoir configurations in the Malwatu Oya river basin in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The study produced multiple surface storage development pathways for the basin under different scenarios of environmental flow (EF) releases and reservoir network configurations. The EF scenarios ranged from zero to very healthy releases. It is shown that if the middle ground between the two extreme EF scenarios is considered, the theoretical maximum safe yield from surface storage is about 65-70 % of the mean annual runoff (MAR) of the basin. It is also identified that although distribution of reservoirs in the river network reduces the cumulative yield from the basin, this cumulative yield is maximized if the ratio among the storage capacities placed in each sub drainage basin is equivalent to the ratio among their MAR. The study suggests a framework to identify drainage regions having higher surface storage potential, to plan for the right distribution of storage capacity within a river basin, as well as to plan for EF allocations.

  8. Effects of cattle and manure management on the nutrient economy of mixed farms in East Africa: A scenario study

    OpenAIRE

    Snijders, P.J.M.; Meer, van der, H.G.; Onduru, D.D.; Ebanyat, P.; Ergano, K.; Zake, J.Y.K.; Wouters, A.P.; Gachimbi, L.N.; Keulen, van, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores effects of animal and manure management in a dairy unit on the nutrient economy of crop-livestock farms in East Africa. For this purpose, 8 cattle management scenarios have been developed based on farming systems in Mbeere, Kenya (extensive), Wakiso, Uganda (semi-intensive) and Kibichoi, Kenya (intensive). Three baseline scenarios represent present-day cattle management; five improved scenarios use the same dairy breeds but have improved nutrition, using younger grass, mor...

  9. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  10. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2013-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2011, surface-water diversions of about 199,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2011, a total of about 19,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 21,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2011, about 106,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water quality was sampled at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2012, this recharge arrived at four monitoring wells located within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir. Changing geochemical conditions at five other monitoring wells could indicate other processes, such as changing groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, rather than arrival of reservoir recharge.

  11. Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riitta Molarius

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

  12. Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2009-10-01

    Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.

  13. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  14. Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

    Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal

  15. Epidemiological and Economic Evaluation of Alternative On-Farm Management Scenarios for Ovine Footrot in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Zingg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Footrot is a multifactorial infectious disease mostly affecting sheep, caused by the bacteria Dichelobacter nodosus. It causes painful feet lesions resulting in animal welfare issues, weight loss, and reduced wool production, which leads to a considerable economic burden in animal production. In Switzerland, the disease is endemic and mandatory coordinated control programs exist only in some parts of the country. This study aimed to compare two nationwide control strategies and a no intervention scenario with the current situation, and to quantify their net economic effect. This was done by sequential application of a maximum entropy model (MEM, epidemiological simulation, and calculation of net economic effect using the net present value method. Building upon data from a questionnaire, the MEM revealed a nationwide footrot prevalence of 40.2%. Regional prevalence values were used as inputs for the epidemiological model. Under the application of the nationwide coordinated control program without (scenario B and with (scenario C improved diagnostics [polymerase chain reaction (PCR test], the Swiss-wide prevalence decreased within 10 years to 14 and 5%, respectively. Contrary, an increase to 48% prevalence was observed when terminating the current control strategies (scenario D. Management costs included labor and material costs. Management benefits included reduction of fattening time and improved animal welfare, which is valued by Swiss consumers and therefore reduces societal costs. The net economic effect of the alternative scenarios B and C was positive, the one of scenario D was negative and over a period of 17 years quantified at CHF 422.3, 538.3, and −172.3 million (1 CHF = 1.040 US$, respectively. This implies that a systematic Swiss-wide management program under the application of the PCR diagnostic test is the most recommendable strategy for a cost-effective control of footrot in Switzerland.

  16. Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

    2008-04-01

    To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of

  17. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  18. Study of scenarios of long term management of low-activity long-life wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This document reports the study of scenarios for the management of different low-activity long-life radioactive wastes with reference to different French legal texts. After a presentation of the legal and technical context, the report presents different existing and projected storages (description and safety principles for the Cires and Aube centres and for the Cigeo project of deep geological storage centre). It addresses the various aspects of radiferous and graphite waste management on a long term: inventory, parcel, waste peculiarities, management scenarios, assessment of storage in SCR. It also addresses the case of other wastes such as bituminous coated wastes, those presenting a reinforced natural radioactivity or residues of uranium conversion processing. The last part presents the main orientations for the project

  19. Event-based scenario manager for multibody dynamics simulation of heavy load lifting operations in shipyards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sol Ha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests an event-based scenario manager capable of creating and editing a scenario for shipbuilding process simulation based on multibody dynamics. To configure various situation in shipyards and easily connect with multibody dynamics, the proposed method has two main concepts: an Actor and an Action List. The Actor represents the anatomic unit of action in the multibody dynamics and can be connected to a specific component of the dynamics kernel such as the body and joint. The user can make a scenario up by combining the actors. The Action List contains information for arranging and executing the actors. Since the shipbuilding process is a kind of event-based sequence, all simulation models were configured using Discrete EVent System Specification (DEVS formalism. The proposed method was applied to simulations of various operations in shipyards such as lifting and erection of a block and heavy load lifting operation using multiple cranes.

  20. Many-Objective Reservoir Policy Identification and Refinement to Reduce Institutional Myopia in Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, M.; Herman, J. D.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    Institutional inertia strongly limits our ability to adapt water reservoir operations to better manage growing water demands as well as their associated uncertainties in a changing climate. Although it has long been recognized that these systems are generally framed in heterogeneous socio-economic contexts involving a myriad of conflicting, non-commensurable operating objectives, our broader understanding of the multiobjective consequences of current operating rules as well as their vulnerability to hydroclimatic uncertainties is severely limited. This study proposes a decision analytic framework to overcome policy inertia and myopia in complex river basin management contexts. The framework combines reservoir policy identification and many-objective optimization under uncertainty to characterize current operations and discover key tradeoffs between alternative policies for balancing evolving demands and system uncertainties. The approach is demonstrated on the Conowingo Dam, located within the Lower Susquehanna River, USA. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to the system's competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. Initially our proposed framework uses available streamflow observations to implicitly identify the Conowingo Dam's current but unknown operating policy. This baseline policy is identified by fitting radial basis functions to existing system dynamics. Our assumption in the baseline policy is that the dam operator is represented as a rational agent seeking to maximize primary operational objectives (i.e., guaranteeing the public water supply and maximizing the hydropower revenue). The quality of the identified baseline policy is evaluated by its ability to replicate historical release dynamics. Once identified, the historical baseline policy then provides a means of representing

  1. Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Patrick Philbin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

  2. Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyushova Y.G.,

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

  3. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna T

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods: Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG by three expert researchers. Results: In seven of nine scenarios (78%, the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162 of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162 of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusion: Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way.

  4. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

    Objective To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. Results In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusions Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way. PMID:24644524

  5. Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.

  6. SWOT data assimilation for operational reservoir management on the upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munier, S.; Polebistki, A.; Brown, C.; Belaud, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide two-dimensional maps of water elevation for rivers with width greater than 100 m globally. We describe a modeling framework and an automatic control algorithm that prescribe optimal releases from the Selingue dam in the Upper Niger River Basin, with the objective of understanding how SWOT data might be used to the benefit of operational water management. The modeling framework was used in a twin experiment to simulate the "true" system state and an ensemble of corrupted model states. Virtual SWOT observations of reservoir and river levels were assimilated into the model with a repeat cycle of 21 days. The updated state was used to initialize a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm that computed the optimal reservoir release that meets a minimum flow requirement 300 km downstream of the dam. The data assimilation results indicate that the model updates had a positive effect on estimates of both water level and discharge. The "persistence," which describes the duration of the assimilation effect, was clearly improved (greater than 21 days) by integrating a smoother into the assimilation procedure. We compared performances of the MPC with SWOT data assimilation to an open-loop MPC simulation. Results show that the data assimilation resulted in substantial improvements in the performances of the Selingue dam management with a greater ability to meet environmental requirements (the number of days the target is missed falls to zero) and a minimum volume of water released from the dam.

  7. Comparison of environmental performance for different waste management scenarios in East Africa: The case of Kampala City, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oyoo, R.; Leemans, R.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Poor waste flows management in East African cities has become an environmental and public health concerns to the city authorities and the general public. We assessed the environmental impacts of waste recycling in Kampala City, for four designed waste management scenarios, namely: (1) Scenario S1

  8. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  9. Cloud computing and Reservoir project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beco, S.; Maraschini, A.; Pacini, F.; Biran, O.

    2009-01-01

    The support for complex services delivery is becoming a key point in current internet technology. Current trends in internet applications are characterized by on demand delivery of ever growing amounts of content. The future internet of services will have to deliver content intensive applications to users with quality of service and security guarantees. This paper describes the Reservoir project and the challenge of a reliable and effective delivery of services as utilities in a commercial scenario. It starts by analyzing the needs of a future infrastructure provider and introducing the key concept of a service oriented architecture that combines virtualisation-aware grid with grid-aware virtualisation, while being driven by business service management. This article will then focus on the benefits and the innovations derived from the Reservoir approach. Eventually, a high level view of Reservoir general architecture is illustrated.

  10. Scenarios for minor actinides transmutation in the framework of the French Act on Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coquelet-Pascal, C.; Meyer, M.; Tiphine, M.; Girieud, R.; Eschbach, R.; Chabert, C.; Garzenne, C.; Barbrault, P.; Van Den Durpel, L.; Caron-Charles, M.; Favet, D.; Arslan, M.; Caron-Charles, M.; Carlier, B.; Lefevre, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    In the framework of the French Act on Waste Management, options of minor actinides (MA) transmutation are studied, based on several scenarios of sodium fast reactor deployment. Basically, one of these scenarios considers the deployment of a 60 GWe SFR fleet in two steps (20 GWe from 2040 to 2050 and 40 GWe, as well as, from 2080 to 2100). For this scenario, the advantages and drawbacks of different transmutation options are evaluated: - transmutation of all minor actinides or only of americium; - transmutation in homogeneous mode (MA bearing fuel in all the core or just in the outer core) or in heterogeneous mode (MA bearing radial blankets). Scenarios have been optimised to limit the impacts of MA transmutation on the cycle: - reduction of the initial MA content in the core in the case of transmutation in homogeneous mode to reduce the impact on reactivity coefficients; - reduction of the number of rows of blankets and fuel decay heat in the case of transmutation in heterogeneous mode. The sensitivity of transmutation options to cycle parameters such as the fuel cooling time before transportation is also assessed. Thus, the transmutation of only americium in one row of radial blankets containing initially 10 pc % Am and irradiated during the same duration as the standard fuel assemblies appears to be a suitable solution to limit the transmutation impacts on fuel cycle and facilities. A comparison of results obtained with MA transmutation in dedicated systems is also presented with a symbiotic scenario considering ADS (accelerator-driven system) deployment to transmute MA together with a SFR fleet to produce energy. The MA inventory within the cycle is higher in the case of transmutation in ADS than in the case of transmutation in SFR. Considering the industrial feasibility of MA transmutation, it appears important to study 'independently' SFR deployment and MA transmutation. Consequently, scenarios of progressive introduction of MA options are assessed

  11. Mathematical and field analysis of longitudinal reservoir infill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, W. T.; Capart, H.

    2016-12-01

    In reservoirs, severe problems are caused by infilled sediment deposits. In long term, the sediment accumulation reduces the capacity of reservoir storage and flood control benefits. In the short term, the sediment deposits influence the intakes of water-supply and hydroelectricity generation. For the management of reservoir, it is important to understand the deposition process and then to predict the sedimentation in reservoir. To investigate the behaviors of sediment deposits, we propose a one-dimensional simplified theory derived by the Exner equation to predict the longitudinal sedimentation distribution in idealized reservoirs. The theory models the reservoir infill geomorphic actions for three scenarios: delta progradation, near-dam bottom deposition, and final infill. These yield three kinds of self-similar analytical solutions for the reservoir bed profiles, under different boundary conditions. Three analytical solutions are composed by error function, complementary error function, and imaginary error function, respectively. The theory is also computed by finite volume method to test the analytical solutions. The theoretical and numerical predictions are in good agreement with one-dimensional small-scale laboratory experiment. As the theory is simple to apply with analytical solutions and numerical computation, we propose some applications to simulate the long-profile evolution of field reservoirs and focus on the infill sediment deposit volume resulting the uplift of near-dam bottom elevation. These field reservoirs introduced here are Wushe Reservoir, Tsengwen Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir in Taiwan, Lago Dos Bocas in Puerto Rico, and Sakuma Dam in Japan.

  12. Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

  13. Reservoir fisheries of Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, S.S. De.

    1990-01-01

    At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop

  14. Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristofferson, K.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

  15. Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of

  16. Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2012-01-01

    The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger

  17. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional activity regardless of the performed function and position. The article specifies the following roles in the offered classification: partner, expert, communicator, consultant and curator. It presents results of a sociological study, which demonstrate the degree of co-ordination of opinions of employers and practicing personnel managers with respect to performance of roles in the sphere by their professional activity by the latter. This helps to identify a number of problems, which include the problem of availability of reserves of increase of the level of competence of personnel management specialists. This issue, in its turn, closely deals with main aspects of formation of competitiveness of the said specialists, since the degree of formation of competences is the key condition of formation of competitive advantages.

  18. Evaluation of disposal, recycling and clearance scenarios for managing ARIES radwaste after plant decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Guebaly, L.

    2007-01-01

    The wealth of experience accumulated over the past 30-40 years of fusion power plant studies must be forged into a new strategy to reshape all aspects of handling the continual stream of radioactive materials during operation and after power plant decommissioning. With tighter environmental controls and the political difficulty of building new repositories worldwide, the disposal option could be replaced with more environmentally attractive scenarios, such as recycling and clearance. We applied the three scenarios to the most recent ARIES compact stellarator power plant. All ARIES-CS components qualify as Class A or C low-level waste, according to the US guidelines, and can potentially be recycled using conventional and advanced remote handling equipment. Approximately 80% of the total waste can be cleared for reuse within the nuclear industry or, preferably, released to the commercial market. This paper documents the recent developments in radwaste management of nuclear facilities and highlights the benefits and challenges of disposal, recycling and clearance

  19. Flow forecasting scenarios to support multiple-objective management of publicly-owned dams in Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R [Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ste-Foy, PQ (Canada). Centre de l' Energie

    2004-07-01

    This presentation described the application of flow forecasting at the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ), an agency that provides expertise in hydrology and hydraulics. CEHQ ensures land management of public water and enforces the Dam Safety Act. It also provides support to municipalities in defining flood-risk areas and effective control of floods. Other responsibilities include the operation of hydrometric stations and 36 publicly-owned dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity. The role of stream flow forecasting within the decision making process was discussed and operational examples were presented to demonstrate the possibilities of forecast scenarios such as the one in place at the Kenogami River Basin in Quebec. Future challenges lie in improving the way information is communicated and evaluating the probability of occurrences associated with short-term precipitation scenarios to current weather conditions. tabs., figs.

  20. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Operational Precipitation prediction in Support of Real-Time Flash Flood Prediction and Reservoir Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, K. P.

    2006-05-01

    The presentation will outline the implementation and performance evaluation of a number of national and international projects pertaining to operational precipitation estimation and prediction in the context of hydrologic warning systems and reservoir management support. In all cases, uncertainty measures of the estimates and predictions are an integral part of the precipitation models. Outstanding research issues whose resolution is likely to lead to improvements in the operational environment are presented. The presentation draws from the experience of the Hydrologic Research Center (http://www.hrc-lab.org) prototype implementation projects at the Panama Canal, Central America, Northern California, and South-Central US. References: Carpenter, T.M, and K.P. Georgakakos, "Discretization Scale Dependencies of the Ensemble Flow Range versus Catchment Area Relationship in Distributed Hydrologic Modeling," Journal of Hydrology, 2006, in press. Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, "Impacts of Parametric and Radar Rainfall Uncertainty on the Ensemble Streamflow Simulations of a Distributed Hydrologic Model," Journal of Hydrology, 298, 202-221, 2004. Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.E., Carpenter, T.M., Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, "Integrating Climate- Hydrology Forecasts and Multi-Objective Reservoir Management in Northern California," EOS, 86(12), 122,127, 2005. Georgakakos, K.P., and J.A. Sperfslage, "Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed," in The Rio Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, R.S. Harmon, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Chapter 16, 323-334, 2005. Georgakakos, K. P., "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance," Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2005.

  2. Impact of sediments resuspension on metal solubilization and water quality during recurrent reservoir sluicing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frémion, Franck; Courtin-Nomade, Alexandra [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Bordas, François, E-mail: francois.bordas@unilim.fr [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Lenain, Jean-François [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Jugé, Philippe [CETU – ELMIS Ingénieries, Université François Rabelais, , 60 Rue du Plat d' Étain, 37000 Tours (France); Kestens, Tim [EDF – DPIH, Unité de Production Centre, 19 bis avenue de la Révolution, BP 406, 87012 Limoges Cedex (France); Mourier, Brice [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France)

    2016-08-15

    In dam contexts, sluicing operations can be performed to reestablish sediments continuity, as proposed by the EU Water Framework Directive, as well as to preserve the reservoirs' water storage capacity. Such management permits the rapid release of high quantities of reservoir sediments through the opening of dam bottom valves. This work aims to study the impact of such operation on the evolution of environmental physicochemical conditions notably changes in dissolved metallic elements concentrations (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) through field and laboratory investigations. Results were interpreted in terms of concentrations and fluxes, and compared with data collected on an annual basis regarding both suspended matter and metallic elements. The release of high quantities of sediments (4,500 tons dry weight in 24 h), with concentrations representing up to 300 times the inter-annual mean suspended sediments discharge, significantly modified water parameters, notably solid/liquid (S/L) ratio, pH and redox conditions. Despite the fact that they are mainly trapped in stable phases, a clear increase of the solubilized metals content was measured, representing up to 60 times the maximum values of current exploitation. This solubilization is related to desorption phenomena from sediments through changes in chemical equilibriums as highlighted by laboratory characterizations and experiments. These chemical modifications are mainly attributed to S/L ratio variations. Indeed, the low S/L ratios (≤ 1.3 g·L{sup −1}) measured in situ are typically the ones for which metals solubilization is the highest, as shown by laboratory experiments. Additional thermodynamic modeling highlighted that the decrease in pH measured during the operation favors the release of the free forms of metallic elements (Al and Cu), and decreases the OM complexation influence. These changes, either in term of physical conditions or speciation, increasing metals long term

  3. Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

    2004-01-01

    Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

  4. Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

    2011-12-01

    Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Introduction to the first international workshop on process management for highly dynamic and pervasive scenarios (PM4HDPS 2008)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leoni, de M.; Dustdar, S.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Ardagna, D.; Mecella, M.; Yang, J.

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays, process management systems (PMSs) are widely used in many business scenarios, e.g. by government agencies, by insurance companies, and by banks. Despite this widespread usage, the typical application of such systems is predominantly in the context of static scenarios, instead of pervasive

  6. Sparse Bayesian learning machine for real-time management of reservoir releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq; McKee, Mac; Kemblowski, Mariush; Asefa, Tirusew

    2005-11-01

    Water scarcity and uncertainties in forecasting future water availabilities present serious problems for basin-scale water management. These problems create a need for intelligent prediction models that learn and adapt to their environment in order to provide water managers with decision-relevant information related to the operation of river systems. This manuscript presents examples of state-of-the-art techniques for forecasting that combine excellent generalization properties and sparse representation within a Bayesian paradigm. The techniques are demonstrated as decision tools to enhance real-time water management. A relevance vector machine, which is a probabilistic model, has been used in an online fashion to provide confident forecasts given knowledge of some state and exogenous conditions. In practical applications, online algorithms should recognize changes in the input space and account for drift in system behavior. Support vectors machines lend themselves particularly well to the detection of drift and hence to the initiation of adaptation in response to a recognized shift in system structure. The resulting model will normally have a structure and parameterization that suits the information content of the available data. The utility and practicality of this proposed approach have been demonstrated with an application in a real case study involving real-time operation of a reservoir in a river basin in southern Utah.

  7. Study on radioactive waste management scenarios in regular maintenance of a fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Someya, Youji; Tobita, Kenji; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Low-level radioactive waste is generated in large amounts in the operation of a fusion reactor. For this reason, there are needs for the study of radioactive waste management scenarios, as well as the clarification of the function of waste handling facilities in the design phase. This paper describes the management scenarios with a focus on the radioactive waste generated at the time of scheduled maintenance of a nuclear fusion prototype reactor. Based on the temporal change of the residual heat and dose rate of the blanket and diverter, as the furnace equipment associated with induced radioactivity, management period was determined. At this time, the attenuation rate of dose rate and the like of each device are different. So, if maintenance cycle is established for each device and thus storage area is minimized, the control area can be optimized. Based on the 'principle for minimizing radioactive waste,' the reuse of devices is effective in reducing waste. So, in view of a commercial reactor, research and development is required for the establishment of reuse process under high-dose. Since the commitment to radioactive waste is considered to be an important factor in the future for the social acceptance of nuclear fusion reactor development, comprehensive study including the disposal of waste and the reuse of equipment is important. (A.O.)

  8. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

    2009-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of

  9. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  10. Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William

    2010-01-01

    Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally

  11. Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system.For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring.Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of

  12. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  13. Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2008-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

  14. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rousis, K.; Moustakas, K.; Malamis, S.; Papadopoulos, A.; Loizidou, M.

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites

  15. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites.

  16. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  17. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

  19. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision

  20. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  1. Evaluation of Management of Water Release for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1984 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lere, Mark E. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1984-11-01

    control section and 82.3mm in the dewatered section. Population estimates conducted in the Spring, 1984 indicated densities of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) greater than 254 mm in total length were not significantly different between the control and dewatered sections (p > 0.20). Young of the year rainbow trout and brown trout per 10m of river edge electrofished during 1984 were more abundant in the control section than the dewatered section and were more abundant in side channel habitat than main channel habitat. Minimum flow recommendations obtained from wetted perimeter-discharge relationships averaged 8.5m{sup 3}/sec in the control section and 10.6m{sup 3}/sec in the dewatered section of the Bitterroot River. The quantity of supplemental water from Painted Rocks Reservoir needed to maintain minimum flow recommendations is discussed in the Draft Water Management Plan for the Proposed Purchase of Supplemental Water from Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana (Lere 1984).

  2. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy K. Caves

    2013-09-01

    response to climate change, and (2 incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management actions, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with modifications, may help address the full range of complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

  3. Getting "boater" all the time: managing fishing by boat on New York city water supply reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer A. Cairo

    2007-01-01

    In 2003 the New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply undertook a five-year initiative to improve fishing by boat on its Water Supply reservoirs and controlled lakes in upstate New York. The project includes cleanup of administrative procedures and boat fishing areas on reservoir shores; improving two-way communication with anglers;...

  4. Fishing for improvements: managing fishing by boat on New York City water supply reservoirs and lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole L. Green; Jennifer A. Cairo

    2008-01-01

    In 2003, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply undertook a 5-year initiative to improve fishing by boat on its water supply reservoirs and controlled lakes in upstate New York. The project includes: revising administrative procedures; cleaning up boat fishing areas on reservoir shores; improving two-way communication with...

  5. Risk management in oil reservoir water-flooding under economic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, Muhammad; Van den Hof, Paul; Jansen, Jan Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Model-based economic optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs suffers from high levels of uncertainty. The achievable economic objective is highly uncertain due to the varying economic conditions and the limited knowledge of the reservoir model parameters. For improving

  6. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  7. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios on the small island of Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajcoomar, Avinash; Ramjeawon, Toolseeram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to use the life cycle assessment tool to assess, from an environmental point of view, the different possible municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios for the island of Mauritius. The scenarios include landfilling with energy recovery (S1), incineration with energy recovery (S2), composting, incineration and landfilling (S3) and finally composting, recycling, incineration and landfilling (S4). The MSW generated in 2010 was selected as the functional unit. Foreground data were collected through surveys and literature. Background data were obtained from ecoinvent data in SimaPro 8 libraries. The scenarios were compared both through the CML-IA baseline-midpoint method and the ReCiPe end-point method. From the midpoint method, the results obtained indicates that landfilling (S1) has the greatest impact in all the analyzed impact categories except ozone layer depletion and human toxicity, while incineration (S2) has the least impact on almost all the analyzed damage categories except in global warming potential and human toxicity. The collection and transportation of waste has a significant impact on the environment. From the end-point method, S4 reduces the damage impact categories on Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources due to the recycling process. S3 is not favorable due to the impact caused by the composting process. However, it is also very important to emphasize that for incineration, the best available technology with energy recovery shall be considered. It is recommended that S2 and S4 are considered for strategic planning.

  8. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  9. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  10. Management of turbidity current venting in reservoirs under different bed slopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamoun, Sabine; De Cesare, Giovanni; Schleiss, Anton J

    2017-12-15

    The lifetime and efficiency of dams is endangered by the process of sedimentation. To ensure the sustainable use of reservoirs, many sediment management techniques exist, among which venting of turbidity currents. Nevertheless, a number of practical questions remain unanswered due to a lack of systematic investigations. The present research introduces venting and evaluates its performance using an experimental model. In the latter, turbidity currents travel on a smooth bed towards the dam and venting is applied through a rectangular bottom outlet. The combined effect of outflow discharge and bed slopes on the sediment release efficiency of venting is studied based on different criteria. Several outflow discharges are tested using three different bed slopes (i.e., 0%, 2.4% and 5.0%). Steeper slopes yield higher venting efficiency. Additionally, the optimal outflow discharge leading to the largest venting efficiency with the lowest water loss increases when moving from the horizontal bed to the inclined positions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Knowledge Management Scenario to Support Knowledge Applications Development in Small and Medium Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROSU, S. M.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the European countries more than 95% of the companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and majority of the European Union employees work in these companies. In order to develop intelligent business to become competitive, the enterprises must increase the quality and technologic level of products and services, to have permanent new product or to make old products bettering and to have a good prices policy. These activities request first a large amount of data, information and knowledge collected from all sources and then request transferring knowledge at each enterprise level. Therefore, this work analyses the state of art of the knowledge and knowledge management (KM and propose KM scenario to support knowledge applications (KApps development in SMEs. In addition, the paper presents how can be knowledge bases built at the enterprise level.

  12. The ecological sustainability trigon - A proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.C.; Basset, A.; Brey, T.; Elliott, M.

    2009-01-01

    The ability to achieve ecological sustainability and the sustainable development of marine and estuarine ecosystems constitutes a complex major challenge and depends on many driving forces, often conflicting with each other. In particular, there are three major drivers: (a) the search for human well-being, health and safety, (b) the maintenance of ecological sustainability and environmental equilibrium, and (c) the tolerance of an increasing human population pressure and demand for wealth creation. We propose here the use of a conceptual guidance tool - the ecological sustainability trigon (EST) - as a means of building and testing environmental management scenarios. Although it requires further testing, the EST allows us to (a) address those three major drivers using human society view as a common currency, and (b) describe our behaviour, energetics (economy) and dynamics through ecological theory. Moreover, the EST appears promising for gap analysis and the means to address new research questions.

  13. Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Woodall; C.E. Fiedler; R.E. McRoberts

    2009-01-01

    Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is...

  14. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-11-01

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

  16. Multiunit water resource systems management by decomposition, optimization and emulated evolution : a case study of seven water supply reservoirs in Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milutin, D.

    1998-01-01

    Being one of the essential elements of almost any water resource system, reservoirs are indispensable in our struggle to harness, utilize and manage natural water resources. Consequently, the derivation of appropriate reservoir operating strategies draws significant attention in water

  17. The European forest sector: past and future carbon budget and fluxes under different management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli, Roberto; Grassi, Giacomo; Kurz, Werner A.; Fiorese, Giulia; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-05-01

    The comprehensive analysis of carbon stocks and fluxes of managed European forests is a prerequisite to quantify their role in biomass production and climate change mitigation. We applied the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to 26 European countries, parameterized with country information on the historical forest age structure, management practices, harvest regimes and the main natural disturbances. We modeled the C stocks for the five forest pools plus harvested wood products (HWPs) and the fluxes among these pools from 2000 to 2030. The aim is to quantify, using a consistent modeling framework for all 26 countries, the main C fluxes as affected by land-use changes, natural disturbances and forest management and to assess the impact of specific harvest and afforestation scenarios after 2012 on the mitigation potential of the EU forest sector. Substitution effects and the possible impacts of climate are not included in this analysis. Results show that for the historical period from 2000 to 2012 the net primary productivity (NPP) of the forest pools at the EU level is on average equal to 639 Tg C yr-1. The losses are dominated by heterotrophic respiration (409 Tg C yr-1) and removals (110 Tg C yr-1), with direct fire emissions being only 1 Tg C yr-1, leading to a net carbon stock change (i.e., sink) of 110 Tg C yr-1. Fellings also transferred 28 Tg C yr-1 of harvest residues from biomass to dead organic matter pools. The average annual net sector exchange (NSE) of the forest system, i.e., the carbon stock changes in the forest pools including HWP, equals a sink of 122 Tg C yr-1 (i.e., about 19 % of the NPP) for the historical period, and in 2030 it reaches 126, 101 and 151 Tg C yr-1, assuming constant, increasing (+20 %) and decreasing (-20 %) scenarios, respectively, of both harvest and afforestation rates compared to the historical period. Under the constant harvest rate scenario, our findings show an incipient aging process of the forests existing in 1990: although NPP

  18. Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

    2016-12-01

    Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

  19. Development of a Geomorphology-Based Framework for Cultural Resources Management, Dworshak Reservoir, Idaho

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Corcoran, Maureen

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center developed a technical framework for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating impacts to cultural resource sites affected by reservoir operation in the Columbia River System...

  20. Impacts, Perceptions and Management of Climate-Related Risks to Cage Aquaculture in the Reservoirs of Northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, Louis; Lebel, Phimphakan; Lebel, Boripat

    2016-12-01

    Weather is suspected to influence fish growth and survival, and be a factor in mass mortality events in cage aquaculture in reservoirs. The purpose of this study was to identify the important climate-related risks faced by cage aquaculture farms; evaluate how these risks were currently being managed; and explore how farmers might adapt to the effects of climate change. Fish farmers were interviewed across the northern region of Thailand to get information on impacts, perceptions and practices. Drought or low water levels, heat waves, cold spells and periods with dense cloud cover, each caused significant financial losses. Perceptions of climate-related risks were consistent with experienced impacts. Risks are primarily managed in the short-term with techniques like aeration and reducing feed. In the mid-term farmers adjust stocking calendars, take financial measures and seek new information. Farmers also emphasize the importance of maintaining good relations with other stakeholders and reservoir management. Larger farms placed greater importance on risk management than small farms, even though types and levels of risk perceived were very similar. Most fish farms were managed by men alone, or men and women working together. Gender differences in risk perception were not detected, but women judged a few risk management practices as more important than men. Fish farmers perceived that climate is changing, but their perceptions were not strongly associated with recently having suffered impacts from extreme weather. The findings of this study provide important inputs to improving risk management under current and future climate.

  1. New geomechanical developments for reservoir management; Desenvolvimentos experimentais e computacionais para analises geomecanicas de reservatorio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Antonio C.; Menezes Filho, Armando Prestes; Silvestre, Jose R. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2008-07-01

    The common assumption that oil is produced under a constant rate only considering reservoir depletion has been questioned for some time. An usual hypothesis is that the physical properties of a reservoir are not constants during time, but they vary according to the properties of reservoir rock and the characteristics of the external loads. More precisely, as soon as a reservoir is explored, the volume of fluid diminishes, decreasing the static pressure and increasing the effective stress over the rock skeleton, which, depending on the nature of rock, can lead to a gradual deformation and alteration of reservoir's porosity and permeability, and oil productivity as well. This paper aims at showing numerical and experimental achievements, developed by the Well bore Engineering Technology Department of CENPES, devoted to the characterization of the influence of stress-strain states on the permeability and production of reservoir rocks. It is believed that these developments can possibly bring some light to the understanding of this complex phenomenon, besides allowing the establishment of more realistic relations involving stress-strain-permeability in coupled fluid dynamic problems. (author)

  2. The Spread of Knowledge Management in SMEs: A Scenario in Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Cerchione

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with knowledge management (KM in small and medium enterprises (SMEs. Through a literature review, three research questions have been identified concerning the barriers hindering the spread of KM practices in SMEs, the main knowledge management systems (KMSs adopted by SMEs and the impact of the use of KM practices on SME performance. The research questions were subsequently addressed through a field analysis conducted on a sample of SMEs. The empirical evidence highlights that the scenario has changed in the space of but a few years. Although SMEs are generally characterized by poor financial and human resources, they are able to overcome the barriers preventing the spread of KM practices. The SMEs investigated perceive the strategic value of KM and consequently adopt a variety of KMSs. Nevertheless, such systems are generally outdated in comparison with cheaper, more recent, and user-friendly applications. Finally, the paper emphasizes that the use of KM practices can contribute to the overall growth of SMEs by simultaneously and significantly enhancing their performance.

  3. Scoping Summary Report: Development of Lower Basin Shortage Guidelines and Coordinated Management Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Particularly Under Low Reservoir Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    2006-01-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) acting on behalf of the Secretary of the Department of the Interior (Secretary) proposes to take action to adopt specific Colorado River Lower Basin shortage guidelines and coordinated reservoir management strategies to address operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, particularly under low reservoir conditions. This proposed Action will provide a greater degree of certainty to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin by providing more d...

  4. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications particularly for

  5. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications

  6. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Managing hydroclimatological risk to water supply with option contracts and reservoir index insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Casey; Carriquiry, Miguel

    2007-11-01

    This paper explores the performance of a system of economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on stakeholders of shared water supply. The system is composed of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows. The insurance is designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Insurance provides the irregularly needed funds for exercising the water options. The combined option contract - reservoir index insurance system creates risk sharing between sectors that is currently lacking in many shared water situations. Contracts are designed for a shared agriculture - urban water system in Metro Manila, Philippines, using optimization and Monte Carlo analysis. Observed reservoir inflows are used to simulate contract performance. Results indicate the option - insurance design effectively smooths water supply costs of hydrologic variability for both agriculture and urban water.

  8. The costs of uncoordinated infrastructure management in multi-reservoir river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeuland, Marc; Baker, Justin; Bartlett, Ryan; Lacombe, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    Though there are surprisingly few estimates of the economic benefits of coordinated infrastructure development and operations in international river basins, there is a widespread belief that improved cooperation is beneficial for managing water scarcity and variability. Hydro-economic optimization models are commonly-used for identifying efficient allocation of water across time and space, but such models typically assume full coordination. In the real world, investment and operational decisions for specific projects are often made without full consideration of potential downstream impacts. This paper describes a tractable methodology for evaluating the economic benefits of infrastructure coordination. We demonstrate its application over a range of water availability scenarios in a catchment of the Mekong located in Lao PDR, the Nam Ngum River Basin. Results from this basin suggest that coordination improves system net benefits from irrigation and hydropower by approximately 3–12% (or US$12-53 million/yr) assuming moderate levels of flood control, and that the magnitude of coordination benefits generally increases with the level of water availability and with inflow variability. Similar analyses would be useful for developing a systematic understanding of the factors that increase the costs of non-cooperation in river basin systems worldwide, and would likely help to improve targeting of efforts to stimulate complicated negotiations over water resources. (paper)

  9. Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes

  10. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  11. Management of actinide waste inventories in nuclear phase-out scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cometto, M.; Wydler, P.; Chawla, R.

    2008-01-01

    The improvement of the 'radiological cleanliness' of nuclear energy is a primary goal in the development of advanced reactors and fuel cycles. The multiple recycling of actinides in advanced nuclear systems with fast neutron spectra represents a key option for reducing the potential hazard from high-level waste, especially when the fuel cycle is fully closed. Such strategies, however, involve large inventories of radiotoxic, transuranic (TRU) nuclides in the nuclear park, both in-pile and out-of-pile. The management of these inventories with the help of actinide burners is likely to become an important issue, if nuclear energy systems are eventually phased out, i.e. replaced by other types of energy systems. The present paper compares phase-out scenarios for two transmutation strategies involving fast reactors (FRs) and accelerator-driven systems (ADSs), respectively, operating in symbiosis with conventional light water reactors (LWRs). Particular objectives are to evaluate and compare the TRU reduction performance of the systems as a function of the phase-out time and to determine the appropriate phase-out length for different phase-out criteria. In this connection, an interesting aspect concerns the continuous optimisation of the fuel cycle to counterbalance the reactivity decrease due to the depletion of the fissile isotopes in the fuel. It will be shown that both FRs and ADSs can achieve the goal, provided that the phase-out operation can be continued for about a hundred years

  12. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  13. Common sole in the northern and central Adriatic Sea: Spatial management scenarios to rebuild the stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarcella, Giuseppe; Grati, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Russo, Tommaso; Gramolini, Roberto; Scott, Robert D.; Polidori, Piero; Domenichetti, Filippo; Bolognini, Luca; Giovanardi, Otello; Celić, Igor; Sabatini, Laura; Vrgoč, Nedo; Isajlović, Igor; Marčeta, Bojan; Fabi, Gianna

    2014-05-01

    The northern and central Adriatic Sea represents an important spawning and aggregation area for common sole (Solea solea) and provides for around 20% of the Mediterranean landings. In this area, this resource is mainly exploited with rapido trawl and set nets. The stock is not yet depleted and faces a situation of growth overfishing. The comparison between the spatial distribution by age of S. solea and the geographic patterns of the rapido trawl fishing effort evidenced an overlapping of this fishing activity with the area where juveniles concentrate (age groups 0-2). The majority of spawners inhabits specific offshore areas, here defined as ‘sole sanctuaries', where high concentrations of debris and benthic communities make difficult trawling with rapido. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing spatial management regimes and potential new spatial and temporal closures in the northern and central Adriatic Sea using a simple modelling tool. Two spatial simulations were carried out in order to verify the effectiveness of complementary methods for the management of fisheries: the ban of rapido trawling from October to December within 6 nautical miles and 9 nautical miles of the Italian coast. The focus of the simulation is that the effort of the rapido trawl is moved far from the coast during key sole recruitment periods, when the juveniles are moving from the inshore nursery area toward the offshore feeding grounds. The management scenarios showed that a change in selectivity would lead to a clear increase in the spawning stock biomass and an increase in landings of S. solea in the medium-term. The rapido trawl activity could be managed by using a different logic, bearing in mind that catches and incomes would increase with small changes in the spatial pattern of the fishing effort. The present study highlights the importance of taking into account spatial dimensions of fishing fleets and the possible interactions that can occur between fleets and target

  14. The Scenario Approach to the Development of Regional Waste Management Systems (Implementation Experience in the Regions of Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomin, Eugene P.; Alekseev, Audrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Dorozhkin, Vladimir E.

    2016-01-01

    The article illustrates a theoretical approach to scenario modeling of economic indicators of regional waste management system. The method includes a three-iterative algorithm that allows the executive authorities and investors to take a decision on logistics, bulk, technological and economic parameters of the formation of the regional long-term…

  15. Fish community and fisheries management of Brno Reservoir following revitalisation measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurajda, Pavel; Adámek, Zdeněk; Valová, Zdenka; Janáč, Michal; Roche, Kevin Francis

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 2 (2015), s. 112-122 ISSN 0139-7893 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : biomanipulation * recreational reservoir * eutrophication Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.592, year: 2015

  16. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  17. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  18. Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina Montiel Molina; Luis Galiana-Martín

    2016-01-01

    Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propag...

  19. Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

  20. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  1. Evaluation of various scenarios for the management of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourcade, N.; Zettwoog, P.

    1982-01-01

    A mine located in the Bois Noirs (Forez) granitic massif in the centre of France was closed down in 1980 after 20 years of working and the associated milling plant was dismantled. More than two million tonnes of tailings (dry mass) were produced, of which 1.3 million, containing 2200 g of 226 Ra, were stored behind a retaining barrier. The storage site is described (design, establishment, emplacement of tailings, drainage) and the radioactive, chemical and granulometric composition of the material stored is given. A quantitative evaluation is made of the 226 Ra transferred to the environment via the aquatic pathway (currently about 10 9 Bq.a - 1 , or 30 mg per year) and of the 222 Rn transported by diffusion in the atmosphere (currently about 10 12 atoms.s - 1 ). The concentrations of 226 Ra in the physical and biological host environments and in food chain products originating from such environments were measured. In the food chain it was observed that the concentrations upstream were higher than those downstream by a factor generally not greater than 10, except in the case of vegetables where no significant effect was noted. The potential alpha energy from 222 Rn daughter products was measured continuously. The values obtained are of the same order of magnitude as those recorded in other uranium regions before working. However, we calculate that the few members of the public who comprise the critical group may receive maximum dose equivalent of about 10 μSv.a - 1 through incorporation of 226 Ra, and of about 500 μSv.a - 1 through inhalation of 222 Rn daughter products. Various possible management and stabilization scenarios are examined from the point of view of feasibility and environmental impact

  2. Evaluation of Management of Water Releases for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1983-1986, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spoon, Ronald L. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1987-06-01

    This study was initiated in July, 1983 to develop a water management plan for the release of water purchased from Painted Rocks Reservoir. Releases were designed to provide optimum benefits to the Bitterroot River fishery. Fisheries, habitat, and stream flow information was gathered to evaluate the effectiveness of these supplemental releases in improving trout populations in the Bitterroot River. The study was part of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program and was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration. This report presents data collected from 1983 through 1986.

  3. Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

  4. Risk Management in the AIDS Scenario: Strategies Adopted by Men Who Have Sex with Men in Casual Partnerships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Moraes De Luiz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this study was on risk management strategies used in the aids scenario. For this purpose the chosen scenario was the sexual practices of men who have sex with other men in casual partnerships. Theoretically, the study was based on the notion of risky life styles in its interface with the health promotion framework. By means of a snowball strategy we located ten men who agreed to be interviewed. These interviews were analyzed using discourse analysis techniques. The results suggest that in all cases information about risk for infection by HIV/STD derived from a diversity of sources were used as repertoires for making sense of risks. The analysis led us to propose that information serves as a safety belt that allows risk taking within a certain margin of safety, even though within a scenario of uncertainty.

  5. Sudden water pollution accidents and reservoir emergency operations: impact analysis at Danjiangkou Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Hezhen; Lei, Xiaohui; Shang, Yizi; Duan, Yang; Kong, Lingzhong; Jiang, Yunzhong; Wang, Hao

    2018-03-01

    Danjiangkou Reservoir is the source reservoir of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRP). Any sudden water pollution accident in the reservoir would threaten the water supply of the MRP. We established a 3-D hydrodynamic and water quality model for the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and proposed scientific suggestions on the prevention and emergency management for sudden water pollution accidents based on simulated results. Simulations were performed on 20 hypothetical pollutant discharge locations and 3 assumed amounts, in order to model the effect of pollutant spreading under different reservoir operation types. The results showed that both the location and mass of pollution affected water quality; however, different reservoir operation types had little effect. Five joint regulation scenarios, which altered the hydrodynamic processes of water conveyance for the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams, were considered for controlling pollution dispersion. The results showed that the spread of a pollutant could be effectively controlled through the joint regulation of the two dams and that the collaborative operation of the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams is critical for ensuring the security of water quality along the MRP.

  6. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  7. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Georg E; Schörghuber, Stefan; Linkosalo, Tapio; Sanchez, Anabel; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-02-01

    Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010-2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared

  8. Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R. Schneider

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. The pine strategy seeks to reduce the number of susceptible pine stands by 75% over the next 20 years through targeted harvesting by the forest industry. Our simulations showed that the pine strategy could not be effectively implemented, even if the onset of the beetle outbreak was delayed for 20 years. Even though we increased mill capacity by 20% and directed all harvesting to high volume pine stands during the pine strategy's surge cut, the amount of highly susceptible pine was reduced by only 43%. Additional pine volume remained within mixed stands that were not targeted by the pine strategy. When the outbreak occurred in each scenario, sufficient pine remained on the landscape for the beetle to cause the timber supply to collapse. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.

  9. A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Gustavo Goulart Moreira; Kalikoski, Daniela Coswig; Diegues, Antonio Carlos Sant'Ana

    2013-01-11

    This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a "management scenario" for pink shrimp is possible through the development of "criteria for hierarchies of validity" which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of "management scenarios" and to support a co-management process.

  10. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is

  11. Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

    2017-07-15

    Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Montiel Molina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.

  13. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  14. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  15. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  16. Universal approximators for multi-objective direct policy search in water reservoir management problems: a comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mason, Emanuele; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wide and challenging problem due to non-linearities in the model and the objectives, high dimensional state-control space, and strong uncertainties in the hydroclimatic regimes. The application of classical optimization techniques (e.g., SDP, Q-learning, gradient descent-based algorithms) is strongly limited by the dimensionality of the system and by the presence of multiple, conflicting objectives. This study presents a novel approach which combines Direct Policy Search (DPS) and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) to solve high-dimensional state and control space problems involving multiple objectives. DPS, also known as parameterization-simulation-optimization in the water resources literature, is a simulation-based approach where the reservoir operating policy is first parameterized within a given family of functions and, then, the parameters optimized with respect to the objectives of the management problem. The selection of a suitable class of functions to which the operating policy belong to is a key step, as it might restrict the search for the optimal policy to a subspace of the decision space that does not include the optimal solution. In the water reservoir literature, a number of classes have been proposed. However, many of these rules are based largely on empirical or experimental successes and they were designed mostly via simulation and for single-purpose reservoirs. In a multi-objective context similar rules can not easily inferred from the experience and the use of universal function approximators is generally preferred. In this work, we comparatively analyze two among the most common universal approximators: artificial neural networks (ANN) and radial basis functions (RBF) under different problem settings to estimate their scalability and flexibility in dealing with more and more complex problems. The multi-purpose HoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower

  17. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Managing Injected Water Composition To Improve Oil Recovery: A Case Study of North Sea Chalk Reservoirs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahid, Adeel; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2012-01-01

    of the temperature dependence of the oil recovery indicated that the interaction of the ions contained in brine with the rock cannot be the only determining mechanism of enhanced recovery. We observed no substitution of Ca2+ ions with Mg2+ ions at high temperatures for both rocks. Not only the injection brine......In recent years, many core displacement experiments of oil by seawater performed on chalk rock samples have reported SO42–, Ca2+, and Mg2+ as potential determining ions for improving oil recovery. Most of these studies were carried out with outcrop chalk core plugs. The objective of this study...... is to investigate the potential of the advanced waterflooding process by carrying out experiments with reservoir chalk samples. The study results in a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in increasing the oil recovery with potential determining ions. We carried out waterflooding instead of spontaneous...

  19. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

  1. Game theory and fuzzy programming approaches for bi-objective optimization of reservoir watershed management: a case study in Namazgah reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üçler, N; Engin, G Onkal; Köçken, H G; Öncel, M S

    2015-05-01

    In this study, game theory and fuzzy programming approaches were used to balance economic and environmental impacts in the Namazgah reservoir, Turkey. The main goals identified were to maximize economic benefits of land use and to protect water quality of reservoir and land resources. Total phosphorous load (kg ha(-1) year(-1)) and economic income (USD ha(-1) year(-1)) from land use were determined as environmental value and economic value, respectively. The surface area of existing land use types, which are grouped under 10 headings according to the investigations on the watershed area, and the constraint values for the watershed were calculated using aerial photos, master plans, and basin slope map. The results of fuzzy programming approach were found to be very close to the results of the game theory model. It was concluded that the amount of fertilizer used in the current situation presents a danger to the reservoir and, therefore, unnecessary fertilizer use should be prevented. Additionally, nuts, fruit, and vegetable cultivation, instead of wheat and corn cultivation, was found to be more suitable due to their high economic income and low total phosphorus (TP) load. Apart from agricultural activities, livestock farming should also be considered in the area as a second source of income. It is believed that the results obtained in this study will help decision makers to identify possible problems of the watershed.

  2. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-01-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  4. Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  5. Performance of a system of reservoirs on futuristic front

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Satabdi; Roy, Debasri; Mazumdar, Asis

    2017-10-01

    Application of simulation model HEC-5 to analyze the performance of the DVC Reservoir System (a multipurpose system with a network of five reservoirs and one barrage) on the river Damodar in Eastern India in meeting projected future demand as well as controlling flood for synthetically generated future scenario is addressed here with a view to develop an appropriate strategy for its operation. Thomas-Fiering model (based on Markov autoregressive model) has been adopted for generation of synthetic scenario (monthly streamflow series) and subsequently downscaling of modeled monthly streamflow to daily values was carried out. The performance of the system (analysed on seasonal basis) in terms of `Performance Indices' (viz., both quantity based reliability and time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability indices) for the projected scenario with enhanced demand turned out to be poor compared to that for historical scenario. However, judicious adoption of resource enhancement (marginal reallocation of reservoir storage capacity) and demand management strategy (curtailment of projected high water requirements and trading off between demands) was found to be a viable option for improvement of the performance of the reservoir system appreciably [improvement being (1-51 %), (2-35 %), (16-96 %), (25-50 %), (8-36 %) and (12-30 %) for the indices viz., quantity based reliability, time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability, respectively] compared to that with normal storage and projected demand. Again, 100 % reliability for flood control for current as well as future synthetically generated scenarios was noted. The results from the study would assist concerned authority in successful operation of reservoirs in the context of growing demand and dwindling resource.

  6. Integrated Approach to Drilling Project in Unconventional Reservoir Using Reservoir Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopa, Jerzy; Wiśniowski, Rafał; Wojnarowski, Paweł; Janiga, Damian; Skrzypaszek, Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Accumulation and flow mechanisms in unconventional reservoir are different compared to conventional. This requires a special approach of field management with drilling and stimulation treatments as major factor for further production. Integrated approach of unconventional reservoir production optimization assumes coupling drilling project with full scale reservoir simulation for determine best well placement, well length, fracturing treatment design and mid-length distance between wells. Full scale reservoir simulation model emulate a part of polish shale - gas field. The aim of this paper is to establish influence of technical factor for gas production from shale gas field. Due to low reservoir permeability, stimulation treatment should be direct towards maximizing the hydraulic contact. On the basis of production scenarios, 15 stages hydraulic fracturing allows boost gas production over 1.5 times compared to 8 stages. Due to the possible interference of the wells, it is necessary to determine the distance between the horizontal parts of the wells trajectories. In order to determine the distance between the wells allowing to maximize recovery factor of resources in the stimulated zone, a numerical algorithm based on a dynamic model was developed and implemented. Numerical testing and comparative study show that the most favourable arrangement assumes a minimum allowable distance between the wells. This is related to the volume ratio of the drainage zone to the total volume of the stimulated zone.

  7. A synthesis of possible separation and transmutation scenarios studied in the frame of the French law for waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grouiller, Jean-Paul; Boucher, Lionel; Bourdot, Patrick; Varaine, Frederic; Delpech, Marc; Warin, Dominique

    2005-01-01

    In the frame of the French law for the waste management, we have studied different dynamic scenarios from the present fleet which consists in a single stage of Plutonium recycling in PWRs to the future generation systems taking into account different possible solutions to transmute the minor actinides. This paper presents a synthesis of the different solutions with the accessible technologies (PWRs or SFRs) or with the innovative concepts (ADT, GFRs), analyses the impact on the fuel cycle and on the characteristics of the different waste packages and defines an optimised scenario for managing the actinides in the French fleet. The results presented in this paper give the impact on: The natural uranium resources, The inventory function of time, of different elements (Pu, Np, Am, Cm) at each stage of the fuel cycle and in the wastes, The physic characteristics (thermal power, radiation sources) of the fuel and of the wastes. The fast reactor systems are the more efficiency to manage minor actinides and present less impacts in the fuel cycle. (author)

  8. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkes, Olga, E-mail: o.parkes@ucl.ac.uk; Lettieri, Paola, E-mail: p.lettieri@ucl.ac.uk; Bogle, I. David L.

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Application of LCA in planning integrated waste management systems. • Environmental valuation of 3 legacy scenarios for the Olympic Park. • Hot-spot analysis highlights the importance of energy and materials recovery. • Most environmental savings are achieved through materials recycling. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of waste composition and recycling rates. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for

  9. Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.

  10. Revising scenario map for plant management via interaction of stakeholders' intentions and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohsawa, Yukio; Taya, Sayuri

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to put knowledge of plant safety together and make a map that will help to understand a system of plant and notice new links among components. This map, called the scenario map, can be used for aiding the chance discoveries - decision of various stakeholders of the system based on their awareness of latent dynamics underlying observed events. The trustworthiness of their analysis will be also reinforced by linking relevant data to the nodes and lines in the graph. In order to have stakeholders be aware of information missed in available data, we invented a method of workshop and moved forward with a rough map of plant safety. The first phase attempts to externalize differences in the bodies of knowledge of each participant. In the second, introducing Tsugo Roulette (TR) – the core component of this paper -, latent dynamics where physical and social causalities emerge is externalized. Then participants revise the scenario map based on their thoughts by the second phase, to finally evaluate the utility of nodes and lines in the graph. In accordance with each phase, participants in the workshop could exchange their tsugoes - views of intentions and constraints - and realize new links or nodes to be evaluated highly by experts in the corresponding domain. (author)

  11. PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Delgado de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

  12. Waterproofing with polymeric geo synthetic barriers (GBR-P) in the manual for the design, construction, management and maintenance of reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanco, M.; Cea, J. C.; Garcia, F.; Sanchez, F. J.; Castillo, F.; Mora, J.; Crespo, M. A.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a part of Manual for the Design, Construction, Management and Maintenance of Reservoirs relative to waterproofing with Polymeric Geo synthetic Barriers (GBR-P). the nature materials of geo membranes is studied also theirs characteristics and specifications. (Author) 26 refs.

  13. Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  14. Management of a caseous lymphadenitis outbreak in a new Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) stock reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colom-Cadena, Andreu; Velarde, Roser; Salinas, Jesús; Borge, Carmen; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Serrano, Emmanuel; Gassó, Diana; Bach, Ester; Casas-Díaz, Encarna; López-Olvera, Jorge R; Lavín, Santiago; León-Vizcaíno, Luís; Mentaberre, Gregorio

    2014-12-10

    In 2010, an Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica hispanica) stock reservoir was established for conservation purposes in north-eastern Spain. Eighteen ibexes were captured in the wild and housed in a 17 hectare enclosure. Once in captivity, a caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) outbreak occurred and ibex handlings were carried out at six-month intervals between 2010 and 2013 to perform health examinations and sampling. Treatment with a bacterin-based autovaccine and penicillin G benzatine was added during the third and subsequent handlings, when infection by Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis was confirmed. Changes in lesion score, serum anti-C. pseudotuberculosis antibodies and haematological parameters were analyzed to assess captivity effects, disease emergence and treatment efficacy. Serum acute phase proteins (APP) Haptoglobin (Hp), Amyloid A (SAA) and Acid Soluble Glycoprotein (ASG) concentrations were also determined to evaluate their usefulness as indicators of clinical status. Once in captivity, 12 out of 14 ibexes (85.7%) seroconverted, preceding the emergence of clinical signs; moreover, TP, WBC, eosinophil and platelet cell counts increased while monocyte and basophil cell counts decreased. After treatment, casualties and fistulas disappeared and both packed cell volume (PCV) and haemoglobin concentration significantly increased. Hp, SAA and ASG values were under the limit of detection or showed no significant differences. A role for captivity in contagion rate is suggested by the increase in antibody levels against C. pseudotuberculosis and the emergence of clinical signs. Although boosted by captivity, this is the first report of an outbreak of caseous lymphadenitis displaying high morbidity and mortality in wild ungulates. Treatment consisting of both vaccination and antibiotic therapy seemed to prevent mortality and alleviate disease severity, but was not reflected in the humoural response. Haematology and APP were not useful indicators in our study, perhaps due

  15. Applications of stable isotopes and radioisotopes in the exploration and reservoir management of Philippine geothermal fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, H.P.; Alvis-Isidro, R.R.

    1996-01-01

    The development of indigenous geothermal energy resources is currently one of the primary thrusts of the country's energy program. Presently, the Philippines has a total of geothermal generating capacity of about 1400 MWe. This comprises about 20% of the total energy mix and electricity requirements of the country. By 1998, an additional capacity of about 500 MWe will be commissioned, and the PHilippines would be generating 1900 MWe of electricity from geothermal energy resources. From 1990 to 1993, PNOC EDC (Philippine National Oil Company, Energy Development Corporation) has been granted a research contract by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Company has also been a recipient since 1991 of an IAEA Technical Assistance on the use of stable isotope techniques in geothermal hydrology. Stable isotopes, particularly 18 O and 2 H, in conjunction with other geochemical parameters and geological and geophysical data, have been used to: a) establish the local meteoric water line; b) determine the origin of geothermal fluids; c) delineate the elevation of recharge of geothermal and ground water systems; d) confirm pre-exploitation hydrochemical models; e) identify physical and chemical processes due to exploitation of the geothermal resource (i.e. reinjection fluid returns, incursion of cold meteoric water, boiling due to pressure drawdown and mixing with acidic steam condensates); and, f) estimate reservoir temperatures. Techniques using radioisotopes, such as 14 C, have also been used for the age-dating of charred wood samples collected from some of our geothermal exploration areas. The detection of 3 H has also been used as an indicator for the incursion of recent cold meteoric water into the geothermal system. Tracer studies using 131 I, have also been previously carried out, in coordination with the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute, to determine local hydrology and flow paths of reinjected water in some of our geothermal fields

  16. An approximate dynamic programming approach to resource management in multi-cloud scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrabissa, Antonio; Priscoli, Francesco Delli; Di Giorgio, Alessandro; Giuseppi, Alessandro; Panfili, Martina; Suraci, Vincenzo

    2017-03-01

    The programmability and the virtualisation of network resources are crucial to deploy scalable Information and Communications Technology (ICT) services. The increasing demand of cloud services, mainly devoted to the storage and computing, requires a new functional element, the Cloud Management Broker (CMB), aimed at managing multiple cloud resources to meet the customers' requirements and, simultaneously, to optimise their usage. This paper proposes a multi-cloud resource allocation algorithm that manages the resource requests with the aim of maximising the CMB revenue over time. The algorithm is based on Markov decision process modelling and relies on reinforcement learning techniques to find online an approximate solution.

  17. Management of accidental scenarios involving the loss of RHRS under shutdown conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serradell, V.; Villanueva, J.F.; Martorell, S.; Carlos, S.; Pelayo, F.; Mendizabal, R.; Sol, I.

    2009-01-01

    Results from current Probabilistic Safety Assessment studies of Nuclear Power Plants show the importance of some risky scenarios with the plant at low power and shutdown conditions as compared to the accident scenarios with the plant operating at full power. Technical Specifications establish the Limiting Conditions for operation to assure the plant integrity in each Plant Operational State (POS). Moreover, the plant configuration may differ from the beginning to the end of a certain Plant Operational State, so the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCO) established could be revised as, depending on the plant configuration, the transient evolution may be slightly different. For a PWR plant, one of the most risky accidental sequences in shutdown is the loss of the residual heat removal system, Using the information provided by the plant low power probabilistic safety analysis (LPSA), which should address the Limiting Conditions for Operation imposed by the current Technical Specification, two situations are distinguished: Main Reactor Cooling System (RCS) fully filled with water and RCS partially filled. In addition, while the primary system is partially filled in Cold Shutdown, two different plant configurations can be distinguished, which depend on the particular POS: RCS open and closed. For each case, the corresponding Technical Specification establishes the path to evacuate the residual heat generated. This paper explores the possibility of having alternative or complementary sources for heat removal others than the ones established in the Technical Specification. Especial attention is paid to the role of Steam Generators as an effective heat sink and the possibility of restart of the redundant RHR train. Such alternatives will influence LPSA implementation results. To perform this analysis the loss of the RHR system in a PWR plant has been simulated using RELAP-5 considering the plant in different plant operational states. One of the main results of this work

  18. Software life cycle management standards real-world solutions and scenarios for savings

    CERN Document Server

    Wright, David

    2011-01-01

    Software Life Cycle Management Standards will help you apply ISO/IEC 19770 to your business and enjoy the rewards it offers. David Wright calls on his vast experience to explain how the Standard applies to the whole of the software life cycle, not just the software asset management aspects. His informative guide gives up-to-date information using practical examples, clear diagrams and entertaining anecdotes.

  19. Constructing development and integrated coastal zone management in the conditions of the landslide slopes of Cheboksary water reservoir (Volga River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikonorova, I. V.

    2018-01-01

    Uncontrolled construction and insufficient accounting of engineering-geological and hydro-geological conditions of the coastal zone, intensified technogenic impact on sloping surfaces and active urbanization led to the emergence of serious problems and emergency situations on the coasts of many Volga reservoirs, including the Cheboksary reservoir, within Cheboksary urban district and adjacent territories of Chuvashia. This article is devoted to substantiation of the possibility of rational construction development of landslide slopes of the Cheboksary water reservoir.

  20. Sustainable Supply Chain Management: The Influence of Disposal Scenarios on the Environmental Impact of a 2400 L Waste Container

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo Galve

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the influence of the supply chain management on the environmental impact of a 2400 L waste disposal container used in most cities of Spain. The studied functional unit, a waste disposal container, made up mostly of plastic materials and a metallic structure, and manufactured in Madrid (Spain, is distributed to several cities at an average distance of 392 km. A life cycle assessment of four different scenarios (SC has been calculated with the software EcoTool v4.0 (version 4.0; i+: Zaragoza, Spain, 2015 and using Ecoinvent v3.0 database (version 3.0; Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2013. The environmental impact has been characterized with two different methodologies, recipe and carbon footprint. In order to reduce the environmental impact, several end of life scenarios have been performed, analyzing the influence of the supply chain on a closed-looped system that increases recycling. Closed loop management of the waste and reuse of parts allows companies to stop selling products and start selling the service that their products give to the consumers.

  1. Nutrient-based ecological consideration of a temporary river catchment affected by a reservoir operation to facilitate efficient management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzoraki, Ourania A; Dörflinger, Gerald; Kathijotes, Nicholas; Kontou, Artemis

    2014-01-01

    The water quality status of the Kouris river in Cyprus was examined in order to fulfil the requirements for ecological quality as defined by the Water Framework Directive-2000/60/EC. Nitrate concentration (mean value) was increased in the Limnatis (2.8 mg L(-1)) tributary in comparison with the Kryos (2.1 mg L(-1)) and Kouris (1.0 mg L(-1)) tributaries depicting the influence of anthropogenic activities. The total maximum daily nutrients loads (TMDLs) based on the flow duration curves approach, showed that nutrients loads exceeded threshold values (33.3-75.6% in all hydrologic condition classes in the Kouris tributary, and 65-78% in the Limnatis tributary) especially under low flow conditions. The TMDL graph is intended to guide the temporal schedule for chemical sampling in all hydrologic classes. Kouris reservoir is an oligotrophic system, strongly influenced by the river's flash-flood character but also by the implemented management practices. Kouris river outflow, which was reduced to one-tenth in the post dam period altered the wetland hydrologic network and contributed to the decrease of aquifer thickness. Continuous evaluation and update of the River Basin Management Plans will be the basis for the sustainable development of the Kouris basin.

  2. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Optimal and centralized reservoir management for drought and flood protection via Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming on the Upper Seine-Aube River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavico, Mattia; Raso, Luciano; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Seine river region is an extremely important logistic and economic junction for France and Europe. The hydraulic protection of most part of the region relies on four controlled reservoirs, managed by EPTB Seine-Grands Lacs. Presently, reservoirs operation is not centrally coordinated, and release rules are based on empirical filling curves. In this study, we analyze how a centralized release policy can face flood and drought risks, optimizing water system efficiency. The optimal and centralized decisional problem is solved by Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method, minimizing an operational indicator for each planning objective. SDDP allows us to include into the system: 1) the hydrological discharge, specifically a stochastic semi-distributed auto-regressive model, 2) the hydraulic transfer model, represented by a linear lag and route model, and 3) reservoirs and diversions. The novelty of this study lies on the combination of reservoir and hydraulic models in SDDP for flood and drought protection problems. The study case covers the Seine basin until the confluence with Aube River: this system includes two reservoirs, the city of Troyes, and the Nuclear power plant of Nogent-Sur-Seine. The conflict between the interests of flood protection, drought protection, water use and ecology leads to analyze the environmental system in a Multi-Objective perspective.

  4. State-and-transition simulation modeling to compare outcomes of alternative management scenarios under two natural disturbance regimes in a forested landscape in northeastern Wisconsin, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Swearingen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Comparisons of the potential outcomes of multiple land management strategies and an understanding of the influence of potential increases in climate-related disturbances on these outcomes are essential for long term land management and conservation planning. To provide these insights, we developed an approach that uses collaborative scenario development and state-and-transition simulation modeling to provide land managers and conservation practitioners with a comparison of potential landscapes resulting from alternative management scenarios and climate conditions, and we have applied this approach in the Wild Rivers Legacy Forest (WRLF area in northeastern Wisconsin. Three management scenarios were developed with input from local land managers, scientists, and conservation practitioners: 1 continuation of current management, 2 expanded working forest conservation easements, and 3 cooperative ecological forestry. Scenarios were modeled under current climate with contemporary probabilities of natural disturbance and under increased probability of windthrow and wildfire that may result from climate change in this region. All scenarios were modeled for 100 years using the VDDT/TELSA modeling suite. Results showed that landscape composition and configuration were relatively similar among scenarios, and that management had a stronger effect than increased probability of windthrow and wildfire. These findings suggest that the scale of the landscape analysis used here and the lack of differences in predominant management strategies between ownerships in this region play significant roles in scenario outcomes. The approach used here does not rely on complex mechanistic modeling of uncertain dynamics and can therefore be used as starting point for planning and further analysis.

  5. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, Evgueni D

    2009-01-01

    The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). It considers the risk LP-models in classification, investment, management of companies, bribes and corruption, analysis of risk and efficiency of social and economical processes, and management of development. Key features of this Second Edition: -Five new chapters -Treatment of the basic principles of the modern risk LP theory (the LP-calculus, the LP-methods and the risk LP-theory with GIE) using uniform methodology and terminology with a practical orientation towards both engineering and economics, for the first time in book form -Clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index -More than a hundred illustrations a...

  6. Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S.K.; Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S.; Tyagi, R.D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. → Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace → Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO 2 eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO 2 eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to

  7. Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gassara, Fatma [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Brar, S.K., E-mail: satinder.brar@ete.inrs.ca [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S. [Institut de recherche et de developpement en agroenvironnement inc. (IRDA), 2700 rue Einstein, Quebec (Quebec), Canada G1P 3W8 (Canada); Tyagi, R.D. [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. {yields} Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace {yields} Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data

  8. Scenarios for Minor Actinides Transmutation in the Frame of the French Act for Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.; Coquelet-Pascal, C.; Girieud, R.; Tiphine, M.; Eschbach, R.; Chabert, C.; Garzenne, C.; Barbrault, P.; Gannaz, B.; Van Den Durpel, L.; Favet, D.; Arslan, M.; Carlier, B.; Caron-Charles, M.; Lefèvre, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    Conclusion: • Different transmutation scenarios have been evaluated: homogeneous transmutation, AmBB, MABB. • Homogeneous transmutation: – The MA content peak at the beginning of the transmutation can be reduced from 3,9% to 2,5% thanks to a reprocessing optimization. – Delaying the SFR deployment to 2080 increases this peak from 3,9% to 4,7%. Due to the constraints on reprocessing, the optimization may be less efficient in this case. • Heterogeneous transmutation: – Shorting the AmBB irradiation time from 10 cycles to 5 cycles and reducing their Am content from 20% to 10%: - reduces AmBB decay heat (-45% at the cooling beginning); - leads to an increase in the Am mass in cycle (+20% in 2150). • Impact of the CFV core: – In heterogeneous mode, the CFV transmutation rate being better than the SFRV2B one, the MA inventory is reduced by 22% in 2150. – In homogeneous mode, the reduction of the fissile mass in core leads to an increase of the MA peak at the beginning of the transmutation (3,9% → 5,6%). There’s no impact on the MA inventory

  9. Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévite, Hervé; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien

    Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called “reserve” (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users’ associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users’ behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not

  10. Scenario context v/s framing and defaults in managing privacy in household IoT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bahirat, Paritosh; Sun, Qizhang; Knijnenburg, Bart P.

    2018-01-01

    The Internet of Things provides household device users with an ability to connect and manage numerous devices over a common platform. However, the sheer number of possible privacy settings creates issues such as choice overload. This article outlines a data-driven approach to understand how users

  11. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie Kampmann

    2018-01-01

    The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows th...

  12. Carbon sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under different scenarios of fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Scheller; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth L. Clark; John Hom; Inga. La Puma

    2011-01-01

    The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak...

  13. The use of the SIWARE model package in water management scenario studies, Egypt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdel Gawad, S.T.; Abdel Khalek, M.A.; Smit, M.F.R.; Abdel Dayem, M.S.

    1995-01-01

    The SIWARE model package, which stands for Simulation of Water Management in the Arab Republic of Egypt, has been developed as a decision-support system for the Irrigation and Planning Sectors of the Egyptian Ministry of Public Works and Water Resources. The package was implemented within the

  14. Pattern of medical waste management: existing scenario in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman K Anisur

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical waste is infectious and hazardous. It poses serious threats to environmental health and requires specific treatment and management prior to its final disposal. The problem is growing with an ever-increasing number of hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic laboratories in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. However, research on this critical issue has been very limited, and there is a serious dearth of information for planning. This paper seeks to document the handling practice of waste (e.g. collection, storage, transportation and disposal along with the types and amount of wastes generated by Health Care Establishments (HCE. A total of 60 out of the existing 68 HCE in the study areas provided us with relevant information. Methods The methodology for this paper includes empirical field observation and field-level data collection through inventory, questionnaire survey and formal and informal interviews. A structured questionnaire was designed to collect information addressing the generation of different medical wastes according to amount and sources from different HCE. A number of in-depth interviews were arranged to enhance our understanding of previous and existing management practice of medical wastes. A number of specific questions were asked of nurses, hospital managers, doctors, and cleaners to elicit their knowledge. The collected data with the questionnaire survey were analysed, mainly with simple descriptive statistics; while the qualitative mode of analysis is mainly in narrative form. Results The paper shows that the surveyed HCE generate a total of 5,562 kg/day of wastes, of which about 77.4 per cent are non-hazardous and about 22.6 per cent are hazardous. The average waste generation rate for the surveyed HCE is 1.9 kg/bed/day or 0.5 kg/patient/day. The study reveals that there is no proper, systematic management of medical waste except in a few private HCE that segregate their infectious wastes. Some cleaners were found

  15. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production: Evaluating Best Management Practices for Biofuel Feedstock Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Miae [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Wu, May [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. This study evaluates the improvement of water sustainability through an integrated landscaping management strategy, where landscaping design, land management operations, crop systems, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) play equal roles. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, with a focus on implementing riparian buffers and converting low productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass while benefiting soil and water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact of integrated landscape design on nutrients, suspended sediments, and flow on the watershed and subbasin scales. First, the study evaluated the representation of buffer strip as a vegetative barrier and as a riparian buffer using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. For the riparian buffer, the area ratio method tends to be more conservative, especially in nitrate loadings, while the trapping efficiency method generates more optimistic results. The differences between the two methods increase with buffer width. The two methods may not be comparable for the field-scale vegetative barrier simulation because of limitations in model spatial resolution. Landscape scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (1) current land use, (2) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (3) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that when low productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively, in the watershed surface streams. The reduction was less extensive when riparian buffer strips (30 m or 50 m) were applied to the stream network at 1.4% of total land area

  16. Role of exercise in the management of diabetes mellitus: the global scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thent, Zar Chi; Das, Srijit; Henry, Leonard Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms "type 2 diabetes mellitus," "type 2 DM," "exercise," and/or "physical activity," and "type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise." Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%). Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA) showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM.

  17. Role of exercise in the management of diabetes mellitus: the global scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zar Chi Thent

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. METHODS: Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms "type 2 diabetes mellitus," "type 2 DM," "exercise," and/or "physical activity," and "type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise." Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. RESULTS: Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%. Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. CONCLUSION: Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM.

  18. Scenarios for biodegradable solid waste management and energy recovery in the 'A' Ward in Mumbai, India

    OpenAIRE

    Tellnes, Lars Gunnar Furelid

    2010-01-01

    Introduction. Mumbai is one of the most highly-populated cities in the world and the commercial capital of India. Every day, about 6500 tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) and 2500 tons of construction and demolition waste are generated. The collection efficiency in Mumbai is relatively high for an Indian city, but there is a paucity of space for landfilling.. With the introduction of the Municipal Solid Waste (Management & Handling) Rules, 2000, biodegradable wastes could not be landfilled w...

  19. Aging Reservoirs in a Changing Climate: Examining Storage Loss of Large Reservoirs and Variability of Sedimentation Rate in a Dominant Cropland Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, V.; Kastens, J.; deNoyelles, F.; Huggins, D.; Martinko, E.

    2015-12-01

    Dam construction has multiple environmental and hydrological consequences including impacts on upstream and downstream ecosystems, water chemistry, and streamflow. Behind the dam the reservoir can trap sediment from the stream and fill over time. With increasing population and drinking and irrigation water demands, particularly in the areas that have highly variable weather and extended drought periods such as the United States Great Plains, reservoir sedimentation escalates water management concerns. Under nearly all projected climate change scenarios we expect that reservoir water storage and management will come under intense scrutiny because of the extensive use of interstate river compacts in the Great Plains. In the state of Kansas, located in the Great Plains, bathymetric surveys have been completed during the last decade for many major lakes by the Kansas Biological Survey, Kansas Water Office, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal changes of reservoir characteristics including sedimentation yield, depletion rate, and storage capacity loss for 24 federally-operated reservoirs in Kansas. These reservoirs have an average age of about 50 years and collectively have lost approximately 15% of their original capacity, with the highest annual observed single-reservoir depletion rate of 0.84% and sedimentation yield of 1,685 m3 km-2 yr-1.

  20. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie K; Christensen, Thomas H

    2018-04-01

    The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows that it is a major load on the environment, while the simulation of seven alternative systems results in large savings in many impact categories. With respect to climate change, it is estimated that a saving of about 1200 kg CO 2 equivalents is possible per year, per inhabitant, which is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The best alternatives involve efficient energy recovery from waste and recycling by source separation for commercial and institutional waste, the major waste type in the Irkutsk region. Recycling of household waste seems less attractive, and it is therefore recommended only to consider this option after experience has been gained with the commercial and institutional waste. Sensitivity analysis shows that recovery of energy - in particular electricity, heat, and steam - from waste is crucial to the environmental performance of the waste management system. This relates to the efficiencies of energy recovery as well as what the recovered energy substitutes, that is, the 'dirtier' the off-set energy, the higher the environmental savings for the waste management system. Since recovered energy may be utilised by only a few energy grids or industrial users, it is recommended to perform additional local assessments of the integration of the waste energy into existing systems and facilities.

  1. [Occupational health and safety management systems: scenarios and perspectives for occupational physicians].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santantonio, P; Casciani, M; Bartolucci, G B

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of the occupational physicians, taking into account the new Italian legislation within the frame of CSR, that puts in a new light the physicians inside the Organizations. In this context, Occupational Medicine and Workplace Health Promotion play a central role in most of the items of the Occupational Health and safety management systems, from H&S politics to training, from First Aid to audit and revision systems. From this innovative perspective, the authors try to identify the occupational physician's new challenges and opportunities.

  2. Quantifying Trade-Offs Among Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, and Agricultural Returns in an Agriculturally Dominated Landscape Under Future Land‑Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma C. Underwood

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2017v15iss2art4Change in land use in agriculturally dominated areas is often assumed to provide positive benefits for land-owners and financial agricultural returns at the expense of biodiversity and other ecosystem services. For an agriculturally dominated area in the Central Valley of California we quantify the trade-offs among ecosystem services, biodiversity, and the financial returns from agricultural lands. We do this by evaluating three different landscape management scenarios projected to 2050 compared to the current baseline: habitat restoration, urbanization, and enhanced agriculture. The restoration scenario benefited carbon storage services and increased landscape suitability for birds, and also decreased ecosystem disservices (nitrous oxide emissions, nitrogen leaching, although there was a trade-off in slightly lower financial agricultural returns. Under the urbanization scenario, carbon storage, suitability for birds, and agricultural returns were negatively affected. A scenario which enhanced agriculture, tailored to the needs of a key species of conservation concern (Swainson’s Hawk, Buteo swainsoni, presented the most potential for trade-offs. This scenario benefitted carbon storage and increased landscape suitability for the Swainson's Hawk as well as 15 other focal bird species. However, this scenario increased ecosystem disservices. These spatially explicit results, generated at a scale relevant to land management decision-makers in the Central Valley, provide valuable insight into managing for multiple benefits in the landscape and an approach for assessing future land-management decisions.

  3. Describing Geospatial Assets in the Web of Data: A Metadata Management Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano Fugazza

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Metadata management is an essential enabling factor for geospatial assets because discovery, retrieval, and actual usage of the latter are tightly bound to the quality of these descriptions. Unfortunately, the multi-faceted landscape of metadata formats, requirements, and conventions makes it difficult to identify editing tools that can be easily tailored to the specificities of a given project, workgroup, and Community of Practice. Our solution is a template-driven metadata editing tool that can be customised to any XML-based schema. Its output is constituted by standards-compliant metadata records that also have a semantics-aware counterpart eliciting novel exploitation techniques. Moreover, external data sources can easily be plugged in to provide autocompletion functionalities on the basis of the data structures made available on the Web of Data. Beside presenting the essentials on customisation of the editor by means of two use cases, we extend the methodology to the whole life cycle of geospatial metadata. We demonstrate the novel capabilities enabled by RDF-based metadata representation with respect to traditional metadata management in the geospatial domain.

  4. Ecological and Socio-Economic Modeling of Consequences of Biological Management Scenarios Implementation in Integrated Watershed Management (Case Study: Simindasht Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Keshtkar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Integrated watershed management is considered as a new principle for development planning and management of water and soil resources emphasizing on socio-economic characteristics of the region to sustainable livelihoods without vulnerability for plants and the residents of an area. This research, in line with the objectives of integrated management, has been carried out for modelling and evaluating the effects of ecological, socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of the proposed management plans on the vegetation changes with a focus on the problems in Simindasht catchment, located in Semnan and Tehran Provinces. After standardization of indices by distance method and weighing them, the scenarios were prioritized using multi-criteria decision-making technique. Trade-off analysis of the results indicates that in the integrated management of Simindasht catchment more than one single management solution, covering all aspects of the system can be recommended in different weighting approaches. The approach used herein, considering the results of different models and comparing the results, is an efficient tool to represent the watershed system as a whole and to facilitate decision making for integrated watershed management.

  5. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries Climate change and water scarcity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vairavamoorthy, Kala; Gorantiwar, Sunil D.; Pathirana, Assela

    Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional 'supply based management' to a 'demand management' paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and

  6. Developing sustainable management scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems using GRACE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M.; Sultan, M.; Save, H.

    2016-12-01

    Three sources (CSR and JPL Mascons solutions; CSR spherical harmonic fields) of monthly (04/2002 to 03/2016) GRACE-derived TWS estimates were used to develop sustainable utilization scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems. These aquifer systems include the Saq Aquifer System in Saudi Arabia (SAS; area: 0.46×106 km2), Nubian Aquifer System in Egypt (NAS; area: 0.66×106 km2), and the Northwestern Saharan Aquifer System in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya (NWSAS; area: 1.2×106 km2). Piecewise trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over SAS showed steady-state TWS conditions (0.47 mm/yr; 0.22 km3/yr) during 2002-2006 (Stage I), significant TWS depletion (-13.36 mm/yr; -6.15 km3/yr) during 2006-2012 (Stage II), and signs of replenishment (-3.00 mm/yr; -1.60 km3/yr) during 2012-2016 (Stage III). The pronounced depletion in Stage II is largely related to excessive groundwater extraction mainly for irrigation purposes (2006: irrigated areas/extraction: 502,338 hectare/8.4 km3/yr) compared to those reported in Stage III (2015: irrigated areas/extraction: 326,719 hectare/7.9 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of SAS waters can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 7.7 km3/yr. The NWSAS showed steady-state conditions (0.02 mm/yr; 0.02 km3/yr) during the 2002-2006 period followed by significant TWS depletions (-4.90 mm/yr; -5.85 km3/yr) due to progressive increase in groundwater extraction (1970: 0.6 km3/yr; 2000: 2.5 km3/yr; 2010: 3 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of the NWSAS can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 2.5 km3/yr. Trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over NAS reveals a good correspondence with fluctuations in Lake Nasser Levels (LNL) (2002-2007: LNL/TWS: 177 m/-2.72 mm/yr; 2008-2012: LNL/TWS: 175 m/-7.35 mm/yr; 2013-2016: LNL/TWS: 179 m/11.35 mm/yr) suggesting a causal effect. Given that the average annual (04/2002 to 03/2016) depletion in TWS is -3.24 mm/yr (-2.13 km3/yr), and the average annual extraction is 2.50 km3/yr, we

  7. An establishment on the hazard mitigation system of large scale landslides for Zengwen reservoir watershed management in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Huang, Meng-Hsuan; Yu, Chia-Ching

    2016-04-01

    hazard mitigation program operated by local government and reservoir watershed management in southern Taiwan. Keywords: large scale landslide, disaster prevention, hazard mitigation, watershed management

  8. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co

  9. Advanced Oil Recovery Technologies for Improved Recovery from Slope Basin Clastic Reservoirs, Nash Draw Brushy Canyon Pool, Eddy County, NM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Mark B.

    1999-02-24

    The Nash Draw Brushy Canyon Pool in Eddy County New Mexico is a cost-shared field demonstration project in the US Department of Energy Class II Program. A major goal of the Class III Program is to stimulate the use of advanced technologies to increase ultimate recovery from slope-basin clastic reservoirs. Advanced characterization techniques are being used at the Nash Draw project to develop reservoir management strategies for optimizing oil recovery from this Delaware reservoir. Analysis, interpretation, and integration of recently acquired geologic, geophysical, and engineering data revealed that the initial reservoir characterization was too simplistic to capture the critical features of this complex formation. Contrary to the initial characterization, a new reservoir description evolved that provided sufficient detail regarding the complexity of the Brushy Canyon interval at Nash Draw. This new reservoir description is being used as a risk reduction tool to identify ''sweet spots'' for a development drilling program as well as to evaluate pressure maintenance strategies. The reservoir characterization, geological modeling, 3-D seismic interpretation, and simulation studies have provided a detailed model of the Brushy Canyon zones. This model was used to predict the success of different reservoir management scenarios and to aid in determining the most favorable combination of targeted drilling, pressure maintenance, well simulation, and well spacing to improve recovery from this reservoir.

  10. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  11. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  12. Economic feasibility of stationary electrochemical storages for electric bill management applications: The Italian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telaretti, E.; Graditi, G.; Ippolito, M.G.; Zizzo, G.

    2016-01-01

    Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are expected to become a fundamental element of the electricity infrastructure, thanks to their ability to decouple generation and demand over time. BESSs can also be used to store electricity during low-price hours, when the demand is low, and to meet the demand during peak hours, thus leading to savings for the consumer. This work focuses on the economic viability of BESS from the point of view of the electricity customer. The analysis refers to a lithium-ion (Li-ion), an advanced lead-acid, a zinc-based, a sodium-sulphur (NaS) and a flow battery. The total investment and replacement costs are estimated in order to calculate the cumulated cash flow, the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) of the investment. A parametric analysis is further carried out under two different assumptions: a) varying the difference between high and low electricity prices, b) varying the peak demand charges. The analysis reveals that some electrochemical technologies are more suitable than others for electric bill management applications, and that a profit for the customer can be reached only with a significant difference between high and low electricity prices or when high peak demand charges are applied. - Highlights: •We examine the convenience of using BESS to reduce customer electricity bill. •We make a comparison among different types of batteries for end-user applications. •We evaluate the convenience of using storage in presence of demand charges. •A parametric analysis changing the BESS cost, electricity prices and demand charges has been carried out. •A case study is performed to show the advantages/disadvantages of this approach.

  13. Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.

    2011-12-01

    This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the

  14. Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

    2011-09-01

    The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

  15. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  16. Massachusetts reservoir simulation tool—User’s manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey developed the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool to examine the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflows in Massachusetts by simulating the daily water balance of reservoirs. The simulation tool was developed to assist environmental managers to better manage water withdrawals in reservoirs and to preserve downstream aquatic habitats.

  17. Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies.

  18. Identification and Selection of Alternative Scenarios in LCA Studies of Integrated Waste Management Systems: A Review of Main Issues and Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Raggi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a decision support tool that can be used to assess the environmental performance of an integrated waste management system or to identify the system with the best performance through a comparative analysis of different scenarios. The results of the analysis depend primarily on how the scenarios to be compared are defined, that is on which waste fractions are assumed to be sent to certain treatments/destinations and in what amounts. This paper reviews LCAs of integrated waste management systems with the aim of exploring how the scenarios to be compared are defined in the preliminary phase of an LCA. This critical review highlighted that various criteria, more or less subjective, are generally used for the definition of scenarios. Furthermore, the number of scenarios identified and compared is generally limited; this may entail that only the best option among a limited set of possibilities can be selected, instead of identifying the best of all possible combinations. As a result, the advisability of identifying an integrated life cycle-based methodological approach that allows finding the most environmentally sound scenario among all of those that are theoretically possible is stressed.

  19. Climate variability and sedimentation of a hydropower reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, M.

    2008-01-01

    As part of the relicensing of a large Hydroelectric Project in the central Appalachians, large scale watershed and reservoir sedimentation models were developed to forecast potential sedimentation scenarios. The GIS based watershed model was spatially explicit and calibrated to long term observed data. Potential socio/economic development scenarios were used to construct future watershed land cover scenarios. Climatic variability and potential change analysis were used to identify future climate regimes and shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Permutations of these development and climate changes were forecasted over 50 years and used to develop sediment yield regimes to the project reservoir. Extensive field work and reservoir survey, including current and wave instrumentation, were used to characterize the project watershed, rivers and reservoir hydrodynamics. A fully 3 dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir sedimentation model was developed for the project and calibrated to observed data. Hydrologic and sedimentation results from watershed forecasting provided boundary conditions for reservoir inputs. The calibrated reservoir model was then used to forecast changes in reservoir sedimentation and storage capacity under different future climate scenarios. Results indicated unique zones of advancing sediment deltas and temporary storage areas. Forecasted changes in reservoir bathymetry and sedimentation patterns were also developed for the various climate change scenarios. The warmer and wetter scenario produced sedimentation impacts similar to extensive development under no climate change. The results of these analyses are being used to develop collaborative watershed and soil conservation partnerships to reduce future soil losses and reservoir sedimentation from projected development. (author)

  20. Evaluation of Managed Aquifer Recharge Scenarios using Treated Wastewater: a Case study of the Zarqa River Basin, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Rawy, Mustafa; Zlotnik, Vitaly; Al-Maktoumi, Ali; Al-Raggad, Marwan; Kacimov, Anvar; Abdalla, Osman

    2016-04-01

    Jordan is an arid country, facing great challenges due to limited water resources. The shortage of water resources constrains economy, especially agriculture that consumes the largest amount of available water (about 53 % of the total demand). According to the Jordan Water Strategy 2008 - 2022, groundwater is twice greater than the recharge rate. Therefore, the government charged the planners to consider treated wastewater (TWW) as a choice in the water resources management and development strategies. In Jordan, there are 31 TWW plants. Among them, As Samra plant serving the two major cities, Amman and Zarqa, is the largest, with projected maximum capacity of 135 Million m3/year. This plant is located upstream of the Zarqa River basin that accepts all TWW discharges. The Zarqa River is considered the most important source of surface water in Jordan and more than 78 % of its current is composed of TWW. The main objectives were to develop a conceptual model for a selected part of the Zarqa River basin, including the As Samrapant, and to provide insights to water resources management in the area using TWW. The groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW 2005 and used to assess changes in the aquifer and the Zarqa River under a set of different increments in discharge rates from the As Samra plant and different groundwater pumping rates. The results show that the water table in the study area underwent an average water table decline of 29 m prior to the As Samra plant construction, comparing with the current situation (with annual TWW discharge of 110 Million m3). The analysis of the TWW rate increase to 135 million m3/year (maximum capacity of the As Samra plant) shows that the average groundwater level will rise 0.55 m, compared to the current conditions. We found that the best practices require conjunctive use management of surface- and groundwater. The simulated scenarios highlight the significant role of TWW in augmenting the aquifer storage, improving

  1. Experiential Virtual Scenarios With Real-Time Monitoring (Interreality) for the Management of Psychological Stress: A Block Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    Background The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Objective Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). Methods The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations—teachers and nurses—that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Results Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs CG=0

  2. Experiential virtual scenarios with real-time monitoring (interreality) for the management of psychological stress: a block randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaggioli, Andrea; Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-07-08

    The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations-teachers and nurses-that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs. CG=0.5%) in chronic "trait" anxiety. A similar

  3. 4. International reservoir characterization technical conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    This volume contains the Proceedings of the Fourth International Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference held March 2-4, 1997 in Houston, Texas. The theme for the conference was Advances in Reservoir Characterization for Effective Reservoir Management. On March 2, 1997, the DOE Class Workshop kicked off with tutorials by Dr. Steve Begg (BP Exploration) and Dr. Ganesh Thakur (Chevron). Tutorial presentations are not included in these Proceedings but may be available from the authors. The conference consisted of the following topics: data acquisition; reservoir modeling; scaling reservoir properties; and managing uncertainty. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology database.

  4. Design and evaluation of simulation scenarios for a program introducing patient safety, teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to healthcare leaders and managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jeffrey B; Singer, Sara J; Hayes, Jennifer; Sales, Michael; Vogt, Jay W; Raemer, Daniel; Meyer, Gregg S

    2011-08-01

    We developed a training program to introduce managers and informal leaders of healthcare organizations to key concepts of teamwork, safety leadership, and simulation to motivate them to act as leaders to improve safety within their sphere of influence. This report describes the simulation scenario and debriefing that are core elements of that program. Twelve teams of clinician and nonclinician managers were selected from a larger set of volunteers to participate in a 1-day, multielement training program. Two simulation exercises were developed: one for teams of nonclinicians and the other for clinicians or mixed groups. The scenarios represented two different clinical situations, each designed to engage participants in discussions of their safety leadership and teamwork issues immediately after the experience. In the scenarios for nonclinicians, participants conducted an anesthetic induction and then managed an ethical situation. The scenario for clinicians simulated a consulting visit to an emergency room that evolved into a problem-solving challenge. Participants in this scenario had a limited time to prepare advice for hospital leadership on how to improve observed safety and cultural deficiencies. Debriefings after both types of scenarios were conducted using principles of "debriefing with good judgment." We assessed the relevance and impact of the program by analyzing participant reactions to the simulation through transcript data and facilitator observations as well as a postcourse questionnaire. The teams generally reported positive perceptions of the relevance and quality of the simulation with varying types and degrees of impact on their leadership and teamwork behaviors. These kinds of clinical simulation exercises can be used to teach healthcare leaders and managers safety leadership and teamwork skills and behaviors.

  5. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  6. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

  7. Efficient Operation of a Multi-purpose Reservoir in Chile: Integration of Economic Water Value for Irrigation and Hydropower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, M. A.; Gonzalez Cabrera, J. M., Sr.; Moreno, R.

    2016-12-01

    Operation of hydropower reservoirs in Chile is prescribed by an Independent Power System Operator. This study proposes a methodology that integrates power grid operations planning with basin-scale multi-use reservoir operations planning. The aim is to efficiently manage a multi-purpose reservoir, in which hydroelectric generation is competing with other water uses, most notably irrigation. Hydropower and irrigation are competing water uses due to a seasonality mismatch. Currently, the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs with substantial power capacity is prescribed as the result of a grid-wide cost-minimization model which takes irrigation requirements as constraints. We propose advancing in the economic co-optimization of reservoir water use for irrigation and hydropower at the basin level, by explicitly introducing the economic value of water for irrigation represented by a demand function for irrigation water. The proposed methodology uses the solution of a long-term grid-wide operations planning model, a stochastic dual dynamic program (SDDP), to obtain the marginal benefit function for water use in hydropower. This marginal benefit corresponds to the energy price in the power grid as a function of the water availability in the reservoir and the hydrologic scenarios. This function allows capture technical and economic aspects to the operation of hydropower reservoir in the power grid and is generated with the dual variable of the power-balance constraint, the optimal reservoir operation and the hydrologic scenarios used in SDDP. The economic value of water for irrigation and hydropower are then integrated into a basin scale stochastic dynamic program, from which stored water value functions are derived. These value functions are then used to re-optimize reservoir operations under several inflow scenarios.

  8. Reservoir operation using El Niño forecasts-case study of Daule Peripa and Baba, Ecuador

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Reservoir operation is studied for the Daule Peripa and Baba system in Ecuador, where El Niño events cause anomalously heavy precipitation. Reservoir inflow is modelled by a Markov-switching model using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices as input. Inflow is forecast using 9-month lead time...... Reservoir. Optimized operation is compared to historical management of Daule Peripa. Hypothetical management scenarios are used as the benchmark for the planned system, for which no operation policy is known. Upper bounds for operational performance are found via dynamic programming by assuming perfect...... knowledge of future inflow. The results highlight the advantages of combining inflow forecasts and storage targets in reservoir operation. © 2014 © 2014 IAHS Press....

  9. Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-04-01

    The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

  10. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  11. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-09

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  12. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruibin Zhang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  13. An environmental data base for all Hydro-Quebec reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demers, C.

    1988-01-01

    Hydro-Quebec has created two management positions specifically for reservoirs, namely Reservoir Ecology Advisor and Reservoir Management Advisor. To assist management decisions, a means was required of bringing together all existing environmental information for each reservoir operated by Hydro-Quebec, including storage reservoirs, auxiliary reservoirs and forebays. A relational database using Reflex software was developed on a network of Macintosh computers. The database contains five blocks of information: general information, and physical, physiochemical, biologic and socioeconomic characteristics for each reservoir. Data will be collected on over 100 sites, and the tool will form the basis for developing a medium-range study program on reservoir ecology. The program must take into account the physical, biological and socioeconomic aspects of the environment, as well as the concerns of management personnel operating the reservoirs, the local population, reservoir users, and various government departments. 2 figs

  14. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  15. National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

    2010-01-01

    An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

  16. Processes Affecting Phosphorus and Copper Concentrations and Their Relation to Algal Growth in Two Supply Reservoirs in the Lower Coastal Plain of Virginia, 2002-2003, and Implications for Alternative Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speiran, Gary K.; Simon, Nancy S.; Mood-Brown, Maria L.

    2007-01-01

    Elevated phosphorus concentrations commonly promote excessive growth of algae in waters nationwide. When such waters are used for public supply, the algae can plug filters during treatment and impart tastes and odors to the finished water. This increases treatment costs and results in finished water that may not be of the quality desired for public supply. Consequently, copper sulfate is routinely applied to many reservoirs to control algal growth but only is a 'temporary fix' and must be reapplied at intervals that can range from more than 30 days in the winter to less than 7 days in the summer. Because copper has a maximum allowable concentration in public drinking water and can be toxic to aquatic life, water suppliers commonly seek to develop alternative, long-term strategies for managing reservoirs. Because these are nationwide issues and part of the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to define and protect the quality of the Nation's water resources and better understand the physical, chemical, and biological processes in wetlands, lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries, investigations into these issues are important to the fulfillment of the mission of the USGS. The City of Newport News, Virginia, provides 50 million gallons per day of treated water for public supply from Lee Hall and Harwoods Mill Reservoirs (terminal reservoirs) to communities on the lower York-James Peninsula. About 3,500 pounds of copper sulfate are applied to each reservoir at 3- to 99-day intervals to control algal growth. Consequently, the USGS, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, investigated the effects of management practices and natural processes on phosphorus (the apparent growth-limiting nutrient), copper, and algal concentrations in the terminal reservoirs to provide information that can be used to develop alternative management strategies for the terminal reservoirs. Initial parts of the research evaluated circulation and stratification in the reservoirs

  17. Assessing the role of large wood entrained in the 2013 Colorado Front Range flood in ongoing channel response and reservoir management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Georgina; Rathburn, Sara; Ryan, Sandra; Wohl, Ellen; Blair, Aaron

    2016-04-01

    Considerable quantities of large wood (LW) may be entrained during floods with long lasting impacts on channel morphology, sediment and LW export, and downstream reservoir management. Here we present an analysis of LW entrained by an extensive flood in Colorado, USA. Over a 5 day period commencing 9th September 2013, up to 450 mm of rain, or ~1000% of the monthly average, fell in catchments spanning a 100-km-wide swath of the Colorado Front Range resulting in major flooding. Catchment response was dramatic, with reports of 100s - 1000s of years of erosion, destruction of infrastructure and homes, and sediment and LW loading within reservoirs. One heavily impacted catchment is the North St Vrain, draining 250km2 of the South Platte drainage basin. In addition to widespread channel enlargement, remote imagery reveals hundreds of landslides that delivered sediment and LW to the channel and ultimately to Ralph Price Reservoir, which provides municipal water to Longmont. The City of Longmont facilitated the removal of ~1050 m3 of wood deposited at the reservoir inlet by the flood but the potential for continued movement of large wood in the catchment presents an on-going concern for reservoir management. In collaboration with the City of Longmont, our objectives are (1) to quantify the volume of wood entrained by the flood and still stored along the channel, (2) characterize the size and distribution of LW deposits and (3) determine their role in ongoing catchment flood response and recovery. We utilize freely available pre and post flood NAIP 4-band imagery to calculate a normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) difference map with which we calculate the area of vegetation entrained by the flood. We combine this with field assessments and a map of vegetation type automatically classified from optical satellite imagery to estimate the total flood-entrained volume of wood. Preliminary testing of 'stream selfies' - structure from motion imaging of LW deposits using

  18. Economic Effects of Reservoir Re-operation Policy in the Rio Grande/Bravo for Sustainable Human and Environmental Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz Partida, J. P.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lane, B.

    2015-12-01

    A central challenge of integrated water management is the design and implementation of policies to allocate water to both humans and the environment in a sustainable manner. This study uses the results from a reach-scale water-planning model to quantify and compare the economic benefits of two water management policies: (1) a business as usual (Baseline) policy and (2) a proposed reservoir re-operation policy to provide environmental flows (EFs). Results show that the EF policy would increase water supply profit, slightly decrease recreational activities profit, and reduce costs from flood damage and environmental restoration compared to the Baseline policy. In addition to supporting ecological objectives, the proposed EF policy would increase the economic benefits of water management objectives.

  19. Economic comparison of long-term nuclear fuel cycle management scenarios: The influence of the discount rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Dars, Aude; Loaec, Christine

    2007-01-01

    This article presents some main economic results obtained by the CEA in the DERECO project, which aimed to evaluate the global cost of contrasted and long-term nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The scenarios have been studied for the period 2000-2150 in the French context. They all assume a sustainable nuclear development. These scenarios must not be considered as forecasts and do not reflect any industrial strategy. The article focuses on the comparison of five scenarios including the Generation IV fast reactors and their associated fuel cycles. Common trends as well as specific features can be identified. The article describes the scenarios with the replacement of the nuclear power and the associated fuel cycle. It details the main technical and economic assumptions common to all the scenarios, and exposes some main key results, concerning the flows and inventories as well as concerning economic evaluation. Economic results are given in a comparative manner due to the level of uncertainties at this time horizon. The key economic elements described in the article deal with the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the discount rate

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. The importance of realistic dispersal models in conservation planning: application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aben, Job; Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C F; Pellikka, Petri; Strubbe, Diederik; Hallmann, Caspar; Travis, Justin M J; Lens, Luc; Matthysen, Erik

    2016-08-01

    As biodiversity hotspots are often characterized by high human population densities, implementation of conservation management practices that focus only on the protection and enlargement of pristine habitats is potentially unrealistic. An alternative approach to curb species extinction risk involves improving connectivity among existing habitat patches. However, evaluation of spatially explicit management strategies is challenging, as predictive models must account for the process of dispersal, which is difficult in terms of both empirical data collection and modelling.Here, we use a novel, individual-based modelling platform that couples demographic and mechanistic dispersal models to evaluate the effectiveness of realistic management scenarios tailored to conserve forest birds in a highly fragmented biodiversity hotspot. Scenario performance is evaluated based on the spatial population dynamics of a well-studied forest bird species.The largest population increase was predicted to occur under scenarios increasing habitat area. However, the effectiveness was sensitive to spatial planning. Compared to adding one large patch to the habitat network, adding several small patches yielded mixed benefits: although overall population sizes increased, specific newly created patches acted as dispersal sinks, which compromised population persistence in some existing patches. Increasing matrix connectivity by the creation of stepping stones is likely to result in enhanced dispersal success and occupancy of smaller patches. Synthesis and applications . We show that the effectiveness of spatial management is strongly driven by patterns of individual dispersal across landscapes. For species conservation planning, we advocate the use of models that incorporate adequate realism in demography and, particularly, in dispersal behaviours.

  2. Study on partitioning and transmutation as a possible option for spent fuel management within a nuclear phase-out scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fazion, C.; Rineiski, A.; Salvatores, M.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Romanello, V.; Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology - KIT, Hermann-von-Helmholtz Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Most Partitioning and Transmutation (PT) studies implicitly presuppose the continuous use of nuclear energy. In this case the development of new facilities or the modification of the fuel cycle can be justified in the long-term as an important feature in order to improve sustainability by minimizing radioactive waste and reducing the burden at waste disposal. In the case of a country with nuclear energy phase-out policy, the PT option might have also an important role for what concerns the final disposal strategies of the spent fuel. In this work three selected scenarios are analyzed in order to assess the impact of PT implementation in a nuclear energy phase out option. The scenarios are: -) Scenario 1: Identification of Research/Development activities needs for a technological development of PT while postponing the decision of PT implementation; -) Scenario 2: Isolated application of PT in a phase-out context; and -) Scenario 3: Implementation of PT in a European context. In order to facilitate the discrimination among the 3 scenarios, a number of figures of indicators have been evaluated for each scenario. The selected indicators are: the mass of High Level Waste (HLW), Uranium inventory, thermal output of HLW, Radiotoxicity, Fuel cycle secondary waste associated to the PT operation, and Facility capacity/number requirements. The reduction, due to PT implementation, of high level wastes masses and their associated volumes can be significant. For what concerns the thermal output and radiotoxicity a significant impact can be also expected. However, when assessing these two indicators the contribution coming from already vitrified waste should also not be neglected. Moreover, an increase of secondary waste inventory is also expected. On the contrary, the increase of fission product inventories due to the operation of the transmutation system has a relatively limited impact on the fuel cycle.

  3. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2

  4. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  5. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    survivability issues. Our findings indicate that packaging represents the most significant technical challenge associated with application of sensors in the downhole environment for long periods (5+ years) of time. These issues are described in detail within the report. The impact of successful reservoir monitoring programs and coincident improved reservoir management is measured by the production of additional oil and gas volumes from existing reservoirs, revitalization of nearly depleted reservoirs, possible re-establishment of already abandoned reservoirs, and improved economics for all cases. Smart Well monitoring provides the means to understand how a reservoir process is developing and to provide active reservoir management. At the same time it also provides data for developing high-fidelity simulation models. This work has been a joint effort with Sandia National Laboratories and UT-Austin's Bureau of Economic Geology, Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, and the Institute of Computational and Engineering Mathematics.

  6. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

  8. Analysis of transport logistics and routing requirements for radioactive waste management systems with respect to a minimum power scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, I.A.

    1984-10-01

    This report assesses the transport logistics associated with disposal of intermediate-level radioactive waste, as generated by CEGB, SSEB, UKAEA and BNFL, in accordance with a 'Minimum Power Scenario'. Transport by road and rail is analysed, as in previous reports; use of coastal shipping however has not been included but has been replaced with a combined road/rail option. (author)

  9. Chickamauga reservoir embayment study - 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinert, D.L.; Butkus, S.R.; McDonough, T.A.

    1992-12-01

    The objectives of this report are three-fold: (1) assess physical, chemical, and biological conditions in the major embayments of Chickamauga Reservoir; (2) compare water quality and biological conditions of embayments with main river locations; and (3) identify any water quality concerns in the study embayments that may warrant further investigation and/or management actions. Embayments are important areas of reservoirs to be considered when assessments are made to support water quality management plans. In general, embayments, because of their smaller size (water surface areas usually less than 1000 acres), shallower morphometry (average depth usually less than 10 feet), and longer detention times (frequently a month or more), exhibit more extreme responses to pollutant loadings and changes in land use than the main river region of the reservoir. Consequently, embayments are often at greater risk of water quality impairments (e.g. nutrient enrichment, filling and siltation, excessive growths of aquatic plants, algal blooms, low dissolved oxygen concentrations, bacteriological contamination, etc.). Much of the secondary beneficial use of reservoirs occurs in embayments (viz. marinas, recreation areas, parks and beaches, residential development, etc.). Typically embayments comprise less than 20 percent of the surface area of a reservoir, but they often receive 50 percent or more of the water-oriented recreational use of the reservoir. This intensive recreational use creates a potential for adverse use impacts if poor water quality and aquatic conditions exist in an embayment.

  10. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  11. Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

    2013-01-01

    This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Facility Location for Solid Waste Management through Compilation and Multicriterial Ranking of Optimal Decentralised Scenarios: A Case Study for the Region of Peloponesse in Southern Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karagiannidis

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper addresses the problem of locating solid waste management facilities.Specifically, it studies and proposes optimal alternative solutions for the Greek Region of Peloponnese,by examining facilities for transferring, sorting, treating and landfilling of wastes. Quantitative and qualitative databases concerning the current solid waste management at the Region have been created and used by the model. A customized mixed-integer linear network model has been developed and solved for various evaluation criteria on a single-criterion basis by the use of a location-allocation modeling framework.The solutions resulting from the parametrical application of the multicriterial method ELECTRE III are then ranked for the entire criteria-spectrum. The best alternative scenario is presented for the Region in accordance with current legislation on waste management, which maximizes environmental benefits and promotes recycling, in the frame of sustainable waste management.

  13. Moderate biomanipulation for eutrophication control in reservoirs using fish captured in angling competitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaral S.D.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Angling competitions are a popular leisure activity in reservoirs of Southern Portugal. These competitions can gather more than 100 anglers aiming to catch the maximum fish weight. Groundbaiting and catch-and-release angling are two common practices for anglers in competition. In this study, the loads of nutrients from commercial groundbait powders used in angling competitions in the Maranhão reservoir and the possible balance out of those nutrients through a moderate biomanipulation of the fish biomass caught in competitions were analysed. In order to achieve this aim, chemical analyses to groundbait powders most purchased by Portuguese anglers and to fish species most captured in competitions were made. Mass balances on inputs and outputs of nutrients considering some biomanipulation scenarios were evaluated. Results demonstrated that an effective management on angling competitions implementing a moderate biomanipulation of fish in reservoirs could promote the control of fish fauna and eutrophication, balancing out nutrients from angling.

  14. A long-term optimization method for reservoir management in a market oriented hydro-dominated power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultovic, E.; Sarajcev, I.; Majstrovic, M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an optimization-based method for the long-term scheduling of hydrothermal power system. The proposed method maximizes the profit of hydroelectric production in power system based on monthly energy requirement of the system and unit commitment calculations. The method allows precise hydro chain modeling with numerous restrictions as well as computation for multiple-reservoir river systems with multiple-purpose operation. The method has been implemented in a computer program and tested on power system, which is very similar to Croatian Power System in the year 2000. Several testing results are given. Presented method can be applicable for long-term planning in a competitive electricity market due to possibility of unit commitment calculations with different electrical energy price during scheduling horizon. (authors)

  15. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  16. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: The case of an Italian urban area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Waste management scenarios starting from different SS intensity were analyzed by LCA. • Several experimental data were utilized for the inventory. • Collection activities influences marginally global impact. • Maximum global environmental gain was achieved by SRF for coke substitution. - Abstract: Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process

  17. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: The case of an Italian urban area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Maria, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaria@unipg.it; Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-15

    Highlights: • Waste management scenarios starting from different SS intensity were analyzed by LCA. • Several experimental data were utilized for the inventory. • Collection activities influences marginally global impact. • Maximum global environmental gain was achieved by SRF for coke substitution. - Abstract: Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process.

  18. Decision support tools for urban contingency policy: a scenario approach to risk management of the Vesuvio area in Naples, Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Concilio, Grazia; Torrieri, Francesca

    2001-01-01

    Contingency management, in particular the management of unanticipated events outside the control of an ordinary planning system, has in the last 50years become an important andfrequently debated issue in the scientific literature on complex systems management underrisk conditions. The urban system

  19. Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

    KAUST Repository

    Iglesias, Marco A.; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M.

    2013-01-01

    is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based

  20. A multi-reservoir based water-hydroenergy management model for identifying the risk horizon of regional resources-energy policy under uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, X.T.; Zhang, S.J.; Feng, J.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.P.; Zhang, P.; Chen, J.P.; Li, K.L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multi-reservoir system can handle water/energy deficit, flood and sediment damage. • A MWH model is developed for planning a water allocation and energy generation issue. • A mixed fuzzy-stochastic risk analysis method (MFSR) can handle uncertainties in MWH. • A hybrid MWH model can plan human-recourse-energy with a robust and effective manner. • Results can support adjusting water-energy policy to satisfy increasing demands. - Abstract: In this study, a multi-reservoir based water-hydroenergy management (MWH) model is developed for planning water allocation and hydroenergy generation (WAHG) under uncertainties. A mixed fuzzy-stochastic risk analysis method (MFSR) is introduced to handle objective and subjective uncertainties in MWH model, which can couple fuzzy credibility programming and risk management within a general two-stage context, with aim to reflect the infeasibility risks between expected targets and random second-stage recourse costs. The developed MWH model (embedded by MFSR method) can be applied to a practical study of WAHG issue in Jing River Basin (China), which encounters conflicts between human activity and resource/energy crisis. The construction of water-energy nexus (WEN) is built to reflect integrity of economic development and resource/energy conservation, as well as confronting natural and artificial damages such as water deficit, electricity insufficient, floodwater, high sedimentation deposition contemporarily. Meanwhile, the obtained results with various credibility levels and target-violated risk levels can support generating a robust plan associated with risk control for identification of the optimized water-allocation and hydroenergy-generation alternatives, as well as flood controls. Moreover, results can be beneficial for policymakers to discern the optimal water/sediment release routes, reservoirs’ storage variations (impacted by sediment deposition), electricity supply schedules and system benefit

  1. Arm (Advanced Reservoir Management Vs. Eor Gestion avancée de réservoir contre récupération assistée des hydrocarbures (RAH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chierici G. L.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Advanced Reservoir Management (ARM techniques aimed at a better reservoir coverage by injected fluid(s through the improvement of interwell connectivity and recourse to gravity drainage are shown to have a better chance than EOR techniques in improving oil recovery with satisfactory economic results. Les techniques de gestion avancée de réservoir (ARM, Advanced Reservoir Management visant une meilleure couverture du réservoir par les fluides injectés grâce à l'amélioration des interconnexions entre les puits et au recours au drainage par gravité semblent offrir plus de possibilités que les techniques de RAH, pour améliorer la récupération du pétrole dans de bonnes conditions économiques.

  2. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  3. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: the case of an Italian urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-01

    Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  5. The Role of Stress-test Scenarios in Risk Management Activities and in the Avoidance of a New Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arion NEGRILĂ

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Stress-tests can increase the endurance of banks and financial system when faced with crises especially during economic growth periods, when they may accept higher risks more easily and with lower prices. Their importance was revealed by the crisis which has proven to be much more severe in terms of amplitude than the worst scenarios used by banks.The case study presented assessed the impact that the deterioration of the main macroeconomic indicators might have upon a bank’s exposure to credit, FX, liquidity, interest, operational and market risks, upon its capital requirements, provisions and the balance sheet.

  6. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  7. Determination of turnover and cushion gas volume of a prospected gas storage reservoir under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubik, A. [RAG-AG Wien (Austria); Baffoe, J.; Schulze-Riegert, R. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-08-01

    Gas storages define a key contribution for building a reliable gas supply chain from production to consumers. In a competitive gas market with short reaction times to seasonal and other gas injection and extraction requirements, gas storages also receive a strong focus on availability and precise prediction estimates for future operation scenarios. Reservoir management workflows are increasingly built on reservoir simulation support for optimizing production schemes and estimating the impact of subsurface uncertainties on field development scenarios. Simulation models for gas storages are calibrated to geological data and accurate reproduction of historical production data are defined as a prerequisite for reliable production and performance forecasts. The underlying model validation process is called history matching, which potentially generates alternative simulation models due to prevailing geological uncertainties. In the past, a single basecase reference model was used to predict production capacities of a gas storage. The working gas volume was precisely defined over a contracted plateau delivery and the required cushion gas volume maintains the reservoir pressure during the operation. Cushion and working gas Volume are strongly dependent on reservoir parameters. In this work an existing depleted gas reservoir and the operation target as a gas storage is described. Key input data to the reservoir model description and simulation is reviewed including production history and geological uncertainties based on large well spacing, limited core and well data and a limited seismic resolution. Target delivery scenarios of the prospected gas storage are evaluated under uncertainty. As one key objective, optimal working gas and cushion gas volumes are described in a probabilistic context reflecting geological uncertainties. Several work steps are defined and included in an integrated workflow design. Equiprobable geological models are generated and evaluated based on

  8. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. Modelling the impact of rural land use scenarios on water management: a FREEWAT approach to the Bakumivka catchment case study, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykhailo Grodzynskyi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Bakumivka River’s catchment, Ukraine serves as a case study to the application of FREEWAT to the ground and surface water management. The main objective of the study is to find out the optimal spatial distribution of the water supplied to the farms by modifying the land cover pattern of the catchment. An integrated numerical model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the water budget components. The model includes four model layers, representing the main hydrostratigraphic units, different types of boundary conditions assigned along the area’s boundaries, major components of the water balance introduced through source and sink layers. It was implemented through the FREEWAT software. Three water management scenarios were developed in order to compare different spatial patterns of land cover and distribution of water within the Bakumivka River’s basin. The scenarios represent continuum from market oriented pattern to environmentally sounding pattern of land cover. The objective of the modeling exercise is to obtain mass balances and maps representing three scenarios of water management. Each map shows distribution of the areas where the water balance is optimal, insufficient (dry or excessive (wet for vegetation (land cover of particular type.The simulation shows that changing spatial land cover pattern is an effective measure to reduce water supply to the farms, however it does not prevent water logging in the areas adjacent to the flood plains and drying on summer stress periods in lands of sandyloam soils. Irrigation should be excluded in the areas with sandy and sandyloam soils. The flood plain with peat bogs despite the high water head in spring and late summer stress periods should be irrigated to prevent peat fires. The intrusion of eco-corridors to the land cover pattern in the catchment is positive from ecological perspective, but could prevent drainage causing water logging in the arable lands.

  10. Estimation of Bank Erosion Due To Reservoir Operation in Cascade (Case Study: Citarum Cascade Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Legowo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Sedimentation is such a crucial issue to be noted once the accumulated sediment begins to fill the reservoir dead storage, this will then influence the long-term reservoir operation. The sediment accumulated requires a serious attention for it may influence the storage capacity and other reservoir management of activities. The continuous inflow of sediment to the reservoir will decrease the capacity of reservoir storage, the reservoir value in use, and the useful age of reservoir. Because of that, the rate of the sediment needs to be delayed as possible. In this research, the delay of the sediment rate is considered based on the rate of flow of landslide of the reservoir slope. The rate of flow of the sliding slope can be minimized by way of each reservoir autonomous efforts. This effort can be performed through; the regulation of fluctuating rate of reservoir surface current that does not cause suddenly drawdown and upraising as well. The research model is compiled using the searching technique of Non Linear Programming (NLP.The rate of bank erosion for the reservoir variates from 0.0009 to 0.0048 MCM/year, which is no sigrificant value to threaten the life time of reservoir.Mean while the rate of watershed sediment has a significant value, i.e: 3,02 MCM/year for Saguling that causes to fullfill the storage capacity in 40 next years (from years 2008.

  11. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  12. Field demonstration of an active reservoir pressure management through fluid injection and displaced fluid extractions at the Rock Springs Uplift, a priority geologic CO2 storage site for Wyoming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Zunsheng [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2017-04-05

    This report provides the results from the project entitled Field Demonstration of Reservoir Pressure Management through Fluid Injection and Displaced Fluid Extraction at the Rock Springs Uplift, a Priority Geologic CO2 Storage Site for Wyoming (DE-FE0026159 for both original performance period (September 1, 2015 to August 31, 2016) and no-cost extension (September 1, 2016 to January 6, 2017)).

  13. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

  14. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  15. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe s how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack‑defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other⠒s projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be playe d by pre‑service construction workers and e...

  16. Integrated modeling of water supply and demand under management options and climate change scenarios in Chifeng City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian

    2015-01-01

    Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...

  17. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  18. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 3. Description of German scenarios for PWR and BWR wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santraille, S.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on German practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for PWR and BWR wastes based on economical and radiological criteria

  19. Radio Resource Management Techniques for eMBB and mMTC services in 5G Dense Small Cell Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmood, Nurul Huda; Lauridsen, Mads; Berardinelli, Gilberto

    2016-01-01

    requirements. This article provides an overview of key radio resource management techniques for 5G dense small cells and demonstrates how these techniques can contribute to fulfilling some of the important 5G requirements. Preliminary system level simulation results indicate that a mean throughput gain...... design requirements. Dense small cells with multiple antenna nodes are believed to be key elements in meeting these challenging requirements. 5G will thus feature an adaptable air interface with carefully designed radio resource management techniques that can optimize each link according to its service...... of around 65%, and up to 84% in latency reduction can be achieved utilizing the discussed resource management techniques....

  20. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 4. Description of a Belgian scenario for PWR waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crustin, J.; Glibert, R.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on Belgian practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for LWR waste based on economical and radiological criteria

  1. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 2. Description of a French scenario for PWR waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saulieu, E. de; Chary, C.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on French practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for LWR waste based on economical and radiological criteria

  2. Social and environmental assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Cali: from landfilling towards integrated recycling schemes

    OpenAIRE

    Díaz Osorio, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The environmental and social challenges of Solid Waste Management in developing countries have become an increasingly pressing issue. Disparities between the rich and poor continues to increase in many of these regions where growing urban areas often witness the worst signs of maltreatment of human labour and misallocation of waste as a resource. This thesis is a case study of the Municipality of Cali in Colombia, where city managers and the stakeholders involved are wrestling with the challe...

  3. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  4. Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, M. S.; Coronado, C.; Miller, M. W.; Rudnick, D. T.; Stabenau, E.; Halley, R. B.; Sklar, F. H.

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year-1 and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

  5. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  6. determination of verticality of reservoir engineering structure

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    applications is 3D survey and management of oil and gas facilities and other engineering structures. This recent .... also affect ground water contamination. 2. VERTICALITY ...... The soil, water and concrete in a Reservoir at the foundation bed ...

  7. The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management : Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruiten, Leon; Hartmann, T.

    2016-01-01

    The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from

  8. Distributed ecohydrological modelling to evaluate irrigation system performance in Sirsa district, India II: Impact of viable water management scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, R.; Jhorar, R.K.; Dam, van J.C.; Feddes, R.A.

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the identification of appropriate strategies to improve water management and productivity in an irrigated area of 4270 km2 in India (Sirsa district). The field scale ecohydrological model SWAP in combination with field experiments, remote sensing and GIS has been applied in a

  9. Reservoir site evaluation through routing | Ogunlela | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... m3/s, and a relative attenuation of 41.10%. Also; the reservoir would not be overtopped since the 99.54 m water elevation for the 25-yr, 24-hr storm was below the reservoir embankment top elevation. Keywords:Reservoir routing. Journal of Modeling, Design and Management of Engineering Systems Vol. 3 (1) 2005: pp.

  10. The further environmental development of Polyphyto Hydroelectric Project reservoir in Kozani prefecture and its contribution to the life quality improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saounatsou, Chara; Georgi, Julia

    2014-08-01

    The Polyphyto Hydroelectric Project was constructed in 1974 and it has been operating since on the Aliakmonas River, Kozani prefecture, by the Greek Public Power Corporation. The construction of the Ilarion Hydroelectric Project, upstream from the Polyphyto Reservoir, has been recently completed and will start operating in the near future. Apart from hydroelectric power production, the Polyphyto reservoir provides flood control to the areas below the Polyphyto dam. It is also used to manage water provision to the city of Thessaloniki and adjacent agricultural plain, providing at the same time cooling water to the Thermo Electric Projects in Ptolemaida. The Polyphyto reservoir has potential for further development as an economic fulcrum to the region in which is located. The Kozani and Servia-Velvendos Municipalities have proceeded to the construction of several touristic, nautical - athletic and fishing projects. In order to promote such developments, while preserving the artificial wetland, flora and fauna of the Polyphyto Reservoir, it is important to reduce the fluctuation of the reservoir elevation which according to its technical characteristics is 21m. The aim of this paper is to propose the combined operation of the two Hydroelectric Project reservoirs to satisfy all the present Polyphyto Hydroelectric Project functions and to reduce the annual fluctuation of the Polyphyto Reservoir. The HEC-5, Version 8 / 1998 computer model was used in our calculations, as developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the US Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir operation simulation. Five possible operation scenarios are tested in this paper to show that the present fluctuation of the Polyphyto Reservoir can be reduced, with some limitations, except during dry weather periods.

  11. Fish community response to the longitudinal environmental gradient in Czech deep-valley reservoirs: Implications for ecological monitoring and management.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vašek, Mojmír; Prchalová, Marie; Říha, Milan; Blabolil, Petr; Čech, Martin; Draštík, Vladislav; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Jůza, Tomáš; Kratochvíl, Michal; Muška, Milan; Peterka, Jiří; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Šmejkal, Marek; Tušer, Michal; Vejřík, Lukáš; Znachor, Petr; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Seďa, Jaromír; Kubečka, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 63, April (2016), s. 219-230 ISSN 1470-160X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0204; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-01625S Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : ecological quality * eutrophication * fish community * gradients * water management Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.898, year: 2016

  12. Modeling the Influence of Variable Tributary Inflow on Circulation and Contaminant Transport in a Water Supply Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, L. H.; Wildman, R.

    2012-12-01

    This study characterizes quantitatively the flow and mixing regimes of a water supply reservoir, while also conducting numerical tracer experiments on different operation scenarios. We investigate the effects of weather events on water quality via storm water inflows. Our study site the Kensico Reservoir, New York, the penultimate reservoir of New York City's water supply, is never filtered and thus dependent on stringent watershed protection. This reservoir must meet federal drinking water standards under changing conditions such as increased suburban, commercial, and highway developments that are much higher than the rest of the watershed. Impacts from these sources on water quality are magnified by minor tributary flows subject to contaminants from development projects as other tributaries providing >99% of water to this reservoir are exceedingly clean due to management practices upstream. These threats, coupled with possible changes in the frequency/intensity of weather events due to climate change, increase the potential for contaminants to enter the reservoir and drinking water intakes. This situation provides us with the unique ability to study the effects of weather events on water quality via insignificant storm water inflows, without influence from the major tributaries due to their pristine water quality characteristics. The concentration of contaminants at the drinking water intake depends partially on transport from their point of entry in the reservoir. Thus, it is crucial to understand water circulation in this reservoir and to estimate residence times and water ages at different locations and under different hydrologic scenarios. We described water age, residence time, thermal structure, and flow dynamics of tributary plumes in Kensico Reservoir during a 22-year simulation period using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2). Our estimates of water age can reach a maximum of ~300 days in deep-reservoir-cells, with

  13. SILTATION IN RESERVOIRS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: reservoir model, siltation, sediment, catchment, sediment transport. 1. Introduction. Sediment ... rendered water storage structures useless in less than 25 years. ... reservoir, thus reducing the space available for water storage and ...

  14. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  15. The interdisciplinary team in type 2 diabetes management: Challenges and best practice solutions from real-world scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret McGill

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The Global Partnership for Effective Diabetes Management has previously recommended the implementation of an interdisciplinary team (IDT approach to type 2 diabetes (T2DM management as one of 10 practical steps for health care professionals to help more people achieve their glycaemic goal. This article discusses some of the key contributors to success and also the challenges faced when applying IDT care, by examining case studies and examples from around the world. The real-world practices discussed show that implementing successful interdisciplinary care in diabetes is possible despite significant barriers such as established hierarchal structures and financial resource constraints. Instituting collaborative, integrated working relationships among multiple disciplines under strong leadership, together with enhanced and active communication and improved patient access to appropriate specialties is essential. Patients have a crucial role in the management of their own disease and including them as part of the treatment team is also critical. IDTs in diabetes care improve patient outcomes in terms of control of glycaemia and cardiometabolic risk factors, and decreased risk of diabetes complications. Ensuring access to an appropriate IDT, in whatever form, is paramount to enable the best care to be delivered.

  16. The Development of a Novel Perfused Cadaver Model With Dynamic Vital Sign Regulation and Real-World Scenarios to Teach Surgical Skills and Error Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minneti, Michael; Baker, Craig J; Sullivan, Maura E

    The landscape of graduate medical education has changed dramatically over the past decade and the traditional apprenticeship model has undergone scrutiny and modifications. The mandate of the 80-hour work-week, the introduction of integrated residency programs, increased global awareness about patient safety along with financial constraints have spurred changes in graduate educational practices. In addition, new technologies, more complex procedures, and a host of external constraints have changed where and how we teach technical and procedural skills. Simulation-based training has been embraced by the surgical community and has quickly become an essential component of most residency programs as a method to add efficacy to the traditional learning model. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe the development of a perfused cadaver model with dynamic vital sign regulation, and (2) to assess the impact of a curriculum using this model and real world scenarios to teach surgical skills and error management. By providing a realistic training environment our aim is to enhance the acquisition of surgical skills and provide a more thorough assessment of resident performance. Twenty-six learners participated in the scenarios. Qualitative data showed that participants felt that the simulation model was realistic, and that participating in the scenarios helped them gain new knowledge, learn new surgical techniques and increase their confidence performing the skill in a clinical setting. Identifying the importance of both technical and nontechnical skills in surgical education has hastened the need for more realistic simulators and environments in which they are placed. Team members should be able to interact in ways that allow for a global display of their skills thus helping to provide a more comprehensive assessment by faculty and learners. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of a Reservoir System Operation Model for Water Sustainability in the Yaqui River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mounir, A.; Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kauneckis, D.

    2017-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico underwent the Sonora SI project to provide additional water supply to the capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the project involves an interbasin transfer from the Yaqui River Basin (YRB) to the Sonora River Basin via the Independencia aqueduct. This project has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors in the YRB. To improve the management of the Yaqui reservoir system, we developed a daily watershed model. This model allowed us to predict the amount of water available in different regions of the basin. We integrated this simulation to an optimization model which calculates the best water allocation according to water rights established in Mexico's National Water Law. We compared different precipitation forcing scenarios: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies during the historical period of 1980-2013, (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution, and (3) we will be studying a future forecast scenario. The simulation results were compared to historical observations at the three reservoirs existing in the YRB to generate confidence in the simulation tools. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedance frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate building confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of reservoir operation policies.

  18. Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

  19. RODOS-based simulation of potential accident scenarios for emergency response management in the vicinity of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, H.; Gering, F.; Arnold, K.; Gerich, B.; Heinrich, G.; Welte, U.

    2016-09-15

    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) started to investigate the potential radiological consequences of a ''Fukushima-like'' accident in a German nuclear power plant and conducted appropriate simulations in 2012. Between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013, the first study was followed by a much more detailed and comprehensive investigation comprising more than 5000 case studies for three nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Germany. Based on these results the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK) released a new recommendation in March 2014 including an expansion of the current emergency planning zones for nuclear power plants in Germany. The key results of this study with respect to the maximum dimensions of the affected areas where dose criteria may be exceeded are described below. The following results are based on the largest nuclear release scenario ''FKA'' (INES scale 7): - Threshold levels for deterministic effects and high doses (effective doses higher than 1000 mSv) can be reached or exceeded within a distance of about 3 km on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Evacuation'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 9 to 18 km (adults) and/or up to 14 to 24 km (infants) on average (the indicated interval describes the minimum and maximum levels of the median value at all three NPP sites). - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Sheltering'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 62 to 80 km (adults) and/or up to 91 to 114 km (infants) on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Stable iodine prophylaxis'' can be exceeded within a distance of up to 24 to 34 km (adults) and/or up to 148 to 161 km (infants and pregnant women) on average.

  20. Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umesh Shrestha

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A field experiment and simulation modeling study in combination for different maize cultivars planted at different sowing dates were accomplished at Kawasoti-5, Nawalparasi during spring season of 2013 to assess the impact of climate change scenario as predicted by IPCC in rainfed spring maize by using CSM-CERES-Maize model. Result showed that RML-4/RML-17 produced higher kernel rows/ ear (13.77, kernel per row (30.42 and test weight (244.9 g. Significantly higher grain yield was also found for RML-4/RML-17 (6.03 t/ha compared to Poshilo makai-1 (4.73 t/ha, Arun-2 (3.55 t/ha and Local (2.92 t/ha. Earlier sowing date (7th April actually produced higher kernel/row (27.97, kernel rows/ear (12.89 and 1000 grain weight (230 g. Significantly higher grain yield (5.13t/ha was obtained in earlier sowing date (7th April. The CSM-CERES-Maize model was calibrated and found well validated with days to anthesis (RMSE= 0.426 day and D-index= 0.998, days to physiological maturity (RMSE=0.674 day and D-index= 0.999, number of grain/m2 at maturity (RMSE= 85.287 grain /m2 and D-index= 0.993, unit weight at maturity (RMSE=0.012 g/kernel and D-index= 0.854 and grain yield (RMSE=54.94 kg/ha and D-index= 1.00. The model was found sensitive to climate change parameters. The sensitivity for various climate change parameter indicated that there was severely decreased trend in simulated rainfed spring maize yield with the increment of maximum and minimum temperature, decrease in solar radiation and decrease carbondioxide concentration. Even 2°C rise in temperature can decrease around 15-20% yield of spring maize and this negative effect was even more pronounced in hybrid than other cultivars.

  1. Development of scenarios suitable for use in a national exercise of coordination and long-term management after a nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero, M.; Gallego, E.

    2014-01-01

    Experiences from real accidents like Chernobyl or Fukushima, have demonstrated the importance of a more decentralized management if it is to address the implementation of measures that affect the daily lives of peoples and their properties. This is embodied in the need to engage more directly to regional and local levels, as well as other social partners and affected population in emergency preparedness, and especially, in the recovery phase and post-emergency rehabilitation. In the framework of the European NERIS-TP project, the organization of a national exercise that could help to address structuring and establishment of operational procedures in the planning and response for the recovery phase has been considered. This paper presents the selection and development of the scenarios for intervention that could be used as basis for analysis and joint discussion about the criteria, possibilities and specific alternatives that could/should be considered at local level during the recovery phase in a facilitated table top exercise with the participation of all possible actors involved or affected in case of a real situation. Available resources at European and national level, to model and analyze these scenarios are also present. (Author)

  2. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Update of energy performance certificates in the residential sector and scenarios that consider the impact of automation, control and management systems: A case study of La Rioja

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-González, Luis M.; López-Ochoa, Luis M.; Las-Heras-Casas, Jesús; García-Lozano, César

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A total of 9416 energy performance certificates in the residential sector were analyzed. • Approximately 40% of the energy performance certificates were incorrect. • The developed algorithms can be generalized for the remainder of Spain. • Introducing BACS and TBM systems can reduce building energy consumption by up to 26.36%. - Abstract: Energy performance certificates are considered to be tools for knowledge and energy planning in the residential sector. Although energy performance certificates describe primary energy consumption and the associated emissions of a home or building, they do not consider the influence of building automation control systems (BACS) or technical building management (TBM) systems on these parameters. The European Standard EN 15232 remedies this shortcoming and evaluates the savings in primary energy and the reduction of CO_2 emissions that can be achieved by these systems. This study investigates the energy performance certificates registered in the Autonomous Community of La Rioja and considers the policy changes in the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación) and, specifically, the Basic Document for Energy Saving (Documento Básico de Ahorro de Energía) (CTE-DB-HE). Due to this regulatory change, we corrected the certificates and outlined different scenarios based on the implementation of these systems in this study. These scenarios show the potential distribution of energy performance certificates and the improvements in the ratings obtained.

  4. Estimated cumulative sediment trapping in future hydropower reservoirs in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucía, Ana; Berlekamp, Jürgen; Zarfl, Christiane

    2017-04-01

    Despite a rapid economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa, almost 70% of the human population in this area remain disconnected from electricity access (International Energy Agency 2011). Mitigating climate change and a search for renewable, "climate neutral" electricity resources are additional reasons why Africa will be one key centre for future hydropower dam building, with only 8% of the technically feasible hydropower potential actually exploited. About 300 major hydropower dams with a total capacity of 140 GW are currently under construction (11.4%) or planned (88.6%) (Zarfl et al. 2015). Despite the benefits of hydropower dams, fragmentation of the rivers changes the natural flow, temperature and sediment regime. This has consequences for a high number of people that directly depend on the primary sector linked to rivers and floodplains. But sediment trapping in the reservoir also affects dam operation and decreases its life span. Thus, the objective of this work is to quantify the dimension of sediment trapping by future hydropower dams in African river basins. Soil erosion is described with the universal soil loss equation (Wischmeier & Smith 1978) and combined with the connectivity index (Cavalli et al. 2013) to estimate the amount of eroded soil that reaches the fluvial network and finally ends up in the existing (Lehner et al. 2011) and future reservoirs (Zarfl et al. 2015) per year. Different scenarios assuming parameter values from the literature are developed to include model uncertainty. Estimations for existing dams will be compared with literature data to evaluate the applied estimation method and scenario assumptions. Based on estimations for the reservoir volume of the future dams we calculated the potential time-laps of the future reservoirs due to soil erosion and depending on their planned location. This approach could support sustainable decision making for the location of future hydropower dams. References Cavalli, M., Trevisani, S., Comiti

  5. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

    Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity, we suggest that appropriate planning measures should

  6. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  7. Estimating Western U.S. Reservoir Sedimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensching, L.; Livneh, B.; Greimann, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    Reservoir sedimentation is a long-term problem for water management across the Western U.S. Observations of sedimentation are limited to reservoir surveys that are costly and infrequent, with many reservoirs having only two or fewer surveys. This work aims to apply a recently developed ensemble of sediment algorithms to estimate reservoir sedimentation over several western U.S. reservoirs. The sediment algorithms include empirical, conceptual, stochastic, and processes based approaches and are coupled with a hydrologic modeling framework. Preliminary results showed that the more complex and processed based algorithms performed better in predicting high sediment flux values and in a basin transferability experiment. However, more testing and validation is required to confirm sediment model skill. This work is carried out in partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation with the goal of evaluating the viability of reservoir sediment yield prediction across the western U.S. using a multi-algorithm approach. Simulations of streamflow and sediment fluxes are validated against observed discharges, as well as a Reservoir Sedimentation Information database that is being developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Specific goals of this research include (i) quantifying whether inter-algorithm differences consistently capture observational variability; (ii) identifying whether certain categories of models consistently produce the best results, (iii) assessing the expected sedimentation life-span of several western U.S. reservoirs through long-term simulations.

  8. Integrated Hydrological Model-Based Assessment of Stormwater Management Scenarios in Copenhagen’s First Climate Resilient Neighbourhood Using the Three Point Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Maria Lerer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The city of Copenhagen currently pursues a very ambitious plan to make the city ‘cloudburst proof’ within the next 30 years. The cloudburst management plan has the potential to support the city’s aim to become more green, liveable, and sustainable. In this study, we assessed stormwater system designs using the Three Point Approach (3PA as a framework, where an indicator value for each domain was calculated using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. We demonstrated the methodology on scenarios representing sequential enhancements of the cloudburst management plan for a district that has been appointed to become the first climate resilient neighbourhood in Copenhagen. The results show that if the cloudburst system is exploited to discharge runoff from selected areas that are disconnected from the combined sewer system, then the plan leads to multiple benefits. These include improved flood protection under a 100-years storm (i.e., compliance with the new demands in domain C of the 3PA, reduced surcharge to terrain under a 10-years storm (i.e., compliance with the service goal in domain B of the 3PA and an improved yearly water balance (i.e., better performance in domain A of the 3PA.

  9. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE's Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented

  10. Deployment of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) in Emergency and Disaster Response Scenarios to Support Local Emergency Management Agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calamaio, C. L.; Walker, J.; Beck, J. M.; Graves, S. J.; Johnson, C.

    2017-12-01

    Researchers at the Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville are working closely with the Madison County Emergency Management Agency (EMA), GeoHuntsville's UAS Working Group, and the NOAA UAS Program Office, to conduct a series of practical demonstrations testing the use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for emergency response activities in Madison County, Alabama. These exercises demonstrate the use of UAS to detect and visualize hazards in affected areas via the delivery of aerial imagery and associated data products to law enforcement first responders in a variety of different scenarios, for example, search and rescue, tornado track mapping, damage assessment, and situational awareness/containment during active shooter incidents. In addition to showcasing the use of UAS as a tool for emergency services, these pilot exercises provide the opportunity to engage the appropriate stakeholders from several communities including first responders, geospatial intelligence, active members of the unmanned systems industry, and academia. This presentation will showcase the challenges associated with delivering quality data products for emergency services in a timely manner as well as the related challenges in integrating the technology into local emergency management.

  11. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Freeman, W. [Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

    1994-03-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE`s Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented.

  12. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  13. Fortescue reservoir development and reservoir studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henzell, S.T.; Hicks, G.J.; Horden, M.J.; Irrgang, H.R.; Janssen, E.J.; Kable, C.W.; Mitchell, R.A.H.; Morrell, N.W.; Palmer, I.D.; Seage, N.W.

    1985-03-01

    The Fortescue field in the Gippsland Basin, offshore southeastern Australia is being developed from two platforms (Fortescue A and Cobia A) by Esso Australia Ltd. (operator) and BHP Petroleum. The Fortescue reservoir is a stratigraphic trap at the top of the Latrobe Group of sediments. It overlies the western flank of the Halibut and Cobia fields and is separated from them by a non-net sequence of shales and coals which form a hydraulic barrier between the two systems. Development drilling into the Fortescue reservoir commenced in April 1983 with production coming onstream in May 1983. Fortescue, with booked reserves of 44 stock tank gigalitres (280 million stock tank barrels) of 43/sup 0/ API oil, is the seventh major oil reservoir to be developed in the offshore Gippsland Basin by Esso/BHP. In mid-1984, after drilling a total of 20 exploration and development wells, and after approximately one year of production, a detailed three-dimensional, two-phase reservoir simulation study was performed to examine the recovery efficiency, drainage patterns, pressure performance and production rate potential of the reservoir. The model was validated by history matching an extensive suite of Repeat Formation Test (RFT) pressure data. The results confirmed the reserves basis, and demonstrated that the ultimate oil recovery from the reservoir is not sensitive to production rate. This result is consistent with studies on other high quality Latrobe Group reservoirs in the Gippsland Basin which contain undersaturated crudes and receive very strong water drive from the Basin-wide aquifer system. With the development of the simulation model during the development phase, it has been possible to more accurately define the optimal well pattern for the remainder of the development.

  14. Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, Mafalda; Mancy, Rebecca; Biek, Roman; Cleaveland, Sarah; Cross, Paul C; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Haydon, Daniel T

    2014-05-01

    Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mafalda, Viana; Rebecca, Mancy; Roman, Biek; Sarah, Cleaveland; Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Daniel T, Haydon

    2014-01-01

    Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems.

  16. Transport of reservoir fines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Hao; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    Modeling transport of reservoir fines is of great importance for evaluating the damage of production wells and infectivity decline. The conventional methodology accounts for neither the formation heterogeneity around the wells nor the reservoir fines’ heterogeneity. We have developed an integral...... dispersion equation in modeling the transport and the deposition of reservoir fines. It successfully predicts the unsymmetrical concentration profiles and the hyperexponential deposition in experiments....

  17. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

    2017-11-03

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  18. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of