WorldWideScience

Sample records for reservoir management scenarios

  1. Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Prats

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

  2. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neutral reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  3. From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-03-12

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making.

  4. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...

  5. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  6. Stream, Lake, and Reservoir Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jingjing; Mei, Ying; Chang, Chein-Chi

    2017-10-01

    This review on stream, lake, and reservoir management covers selected 2016 publications on the focus of the following sections: Stream, lake, and reservoir management • Water quality of stream, lake, and reservoirReservoir operations • Models of stream, lake, and reservoir • Remediation and restoration of stream, lake, and reservoir • Biota of stream, lake, and reservoir • Climate effect of stream, lake, and reservoir.

  7. Reservoir Engineering Management Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, J.H.; Schwarz, W.J.

    1977-12-14

    The Reservoir Engineering Management Program being conducted at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory includes two major tasks: 1) the continuation of support to geothermal reservoir engineering related work, started under the NSF-RANN program and transferred to ERDA at the time of its formation; 2) the development and subsequent implementation of a broad plan for support of research in topics related to the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs. This plan is now known as the GREMP plan. Both the NSF-RANN legacies and GREMP are in direct support of the DOE/DGE mission in general and the goals of the Resource and Technology/Resource Exploitation and Assessment Branch in particular. These goals are to determine the magnitude and distribution of geothermal resources and reduce risk in their exploitation through improved understanding of generically different reservoir types. These goals are to be accomplished by: 1) the creation of a large data base about geothermal reservoirs, 2) improved tools and methods for gathering data on geothermal reservoirs, and 3) modeling of reservoirs and utilization options. The NSF legacies are more research and training oriented, and the GREMP is geared primarily to the practical development of the geothermal reservoirs. 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  8. Sediment management for reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, A.

    2005-01-01

    All natural lakes and reservoirs whether on rivers, tributaries or off channel storages are doomed to be sited up. Pakistan has two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Managla and shallow lake created by Chashma Barrage. Tarbela and Mangla Lakes are losing their capacities ever since first impounding, Tarbela since 1974 and Mangla since 1967. Tarbela Reservoir receives average annual flow of about 62 MAF and sediment deposits of 0.11 MAF whereas Mangla gets about 23 MAF of average annual flows and is losing its storage at the rate of average 34,000 MAF annually. The loss of storage is a great concern and studies for Tarbela were carried out by TAMS and Wallingford to sustain its capacity whereas no study has been done for Mangla as yet except as part of study for Raised Mangla, which is only desk work. Delta of Tarbala reservoir has advanced to about 6.59 miles (Pivot Point) from power intakes. In case of liquefaction of delta by tremor as low as 0.12g peak ground acceleration the power tunnels I, 2 and 3 will be blocked. Minimum Pool of reservoir is being raised so as to check the advance of delta. Mangla delta will follow the trend of Tarbela. Tarbela has vast amount of data as reservoir is surveyed every year, whereas Mangla Reservoir survey was done at five-year interval, which has now been proposed .to be reduced to three-year interval. In addition suspended sediment sampling of inflow streams is being done by Surface Water Hydrology Project of WAPDA as also some bed load sampling. The problem of Chasma Reservoir has also been highlighted, as it is being indiscriminately being filled up and drawdown several times a year without regard to its reaction to this treatment. The Sediment Management of these reservoirs is essential and the paper discusses pros and cons of various alternatives. (author)

  9. Hydrological ensemble predictions for reservoir inflow management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalachori, Ioanna; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joel

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic forecasting is a topic of special importance for a variety of users with different purposes. It concerns operational hydrologists interested in forecasting hazardous events (eg., floods and droughts) for early warning and prevention, as well as planners and managers searching to optimize the management of water resources systems at different space-time scales. The general aim of this study is to investigate the benefits of using hydrological ensemble predictions for reservoir inflow management. Ensemble weather forecasts are used as input to a hydrologic forecasting model and daily ensemble streamflow forecasts are generated up to a lead time of 7 days. Forecasts are then integrated into a heuristic decision model for reservoir management procedures. Performance is evaluated in terms of potential gain in energy production. The sensitivity of the results to various reservoir characteristics and future streamflow scenarios is assessed. A set of 11 catchments in France is used to illustrate the added value of ensemble streamflow forecasts for reservoir management.

  10. Geothermal reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scherer, C.R.; Golabi, K.

    1978-02-01

    The optimal management of a hot water geothermal reservoir was considered. The physical system investigated includes a three-dimensional aquifer from which hot water is pumped and circulated through a heat exchanger. Heat removed from the geothermal fluid is transferred to a building complex or other facility for space heating. After passing through the heat exchanger, the (now cooled) geothermal fluid is reinjected into the aquifer. This cools the reservoir at a rate predicted by an expression relating pumping rate, time, and production hole temperature. The economic model proposed in the study maximizes discounted value of energy transferred across the heat exchanger minus the discounted cost of wells, equipment, and pumping energy. The real value of energy is assumed to increase at r percent per year. A major decision variable is the production or pumping rate (which is constant over the project life). Other decision variables in this optimization are production timing, reinjection temperature, and the economic life of the reservoir at the selected pumping rate. Results show that waiting time to production and production life increases as r increases and decreases as the discount rate increases. Production rate decreases as r increases and increases as the discount rate increases. The optimal injection temperature is very close to the temperature of the steam produced on the other side of the heat exchanger, and is virtually independent of r and the discount rate. Sensitivity of the decision variables to geohydrological parameters was also investigated. Initial aquifer temperature and permeability have a major influence on these variables, although aquifer porosity is of less importance. A penalty was considered for production delay after the lease is granted.

  11. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes

  12. APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jack Bergeron; Tom Blasingame; Louis Doublet; Mohan Kelkar; George Freeman; Jeff Callard; David Moore; David Davies; Richard Vessell; Brian Pregger; Bill Dixon; Bryce Bezant

    2000-03-01

    , and to monitor pressure and preferential fluid movement in the reservoir is demonstrated. These techniques are: long-term production and injection data analysis, pressure transient analysis, and advanced open and cased hole well log analysis. The major contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  13. Mrica Reservoir Sedimentation: Current Situation and Future Necessary Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Utomo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mrica Reservoir is one of many reservoirs located in Central Java that experienced a considerably high sedimentation during the last ten years. This condition has caused a rapid decrease in reservoir capacity. Various countermeasures have been introduced to reduce the rate of the reservoir sedimentation through catchment management and reservoir operation by means of flushing and/or dredging. However, the sedimentation remains intensive so that the fulfillment of water demand for electrical power generation was seriously affected. This paper presents the results of evaluation on the dynamics of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the sediment balance of the Mrica Reservoir based on two different scenarios, i.e. the existing condition and another certain type of reservoir management. The study on sediment balance was carried out by estimating the sediment inflow applying sheet erosion method in combination with the analysis of sediment rating curve. The measurement of the deposited sediment rate in the reservoir was conducted through the periodic echo sounding, whereas identification of the number of sediment that has been released from the reservoir was carried out through the observation on both flushing and dredging activities. The results show that during the last decade, the rate of the sediment inflow was approximately 5.869 MCM/year, whereas the released sediment from the reservoir was 4.097 MCM/year. In order to maintain the reservoir capacity, therefore, at least 1.772 MCM/year should be released from the reservoir by means of either flushing or dredging. Sedimentation management may prolong the reservoir’s service life to exceed the design life. Without sediment management, the lifetime of the reservoir would have finished by 2016, whereas with the proper management the lifetime may be extended to 2025.

  14. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

  15. Some practical aspects of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L.; Young, M.A.; Cole, E.L.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)

    1996-09-01

    The practical essence of reservoir management is the optimal application of available resources-people, equipment, technology, and money to maximize profitability and recovery. Success must include knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system, (2) the technologies available, and (3) the reservoir management business environment. Two Reservoir Management Demonstration projects (one in a small, newly-discovered field and one in a large, mature water-flood) implemented by the Department of Energy through BDM-Oklahoma illustrate the diversity of situations suited for reservoir management efforts. Project teams made up of experienced engineers, geoscientists, and other professionals arrived at an overall reservoir management strategy for each field. in 1993, Belden & Blake Corporation discovered a regionally significant oil reservoir (East Randolph Field) in the Cambrian Rose Run formation in Portage County, Ohio. Project objectives are to improve field operational economics and optimize oil recovery. The team focused on characterizing the reservoir geology and analyzing primary production and reservoir data to develop simulation models. Historical performance was simulated and predictions were made to assess infill drilling, water flooding, and gas repressurization. The Citronelle Field, discovered in 1955 in Mobile County, Alabama, has produced 160 million barrels from fluvial sandstones of the Cretaceous Rodessa formation. Project objectives are to address improving recovery through waterflood optimization and problems related to drilling, recompletions, production operations, and regulatory and environmental issues. Initial efforts focused on defining specific problems and on defining a geographic area within the field where solutions might best be pursued. Geologic and reservoir models were used to evaluate past performance and to investigate improved recovery operations.

  16. The role of reservoir characterization in the reservoir management process (as reflected in the Department of Energy`s reservoir management demonstration program)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L. [BDM-Petroleum Technologies, Bartlesville, OK (United States); Young, M.A.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    Optimum reservoir recovery and profitability result from guidance of reservoir practices provided by an effective reservoir management plan. Success in developing the best, most appropriate reservoir management plan requires knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system including rocks, and rock-fluid interactions (i.e., a characterization of the reservoir) as well as wellbores and associated equipment and surface facilities; (2) the technologies available to describe, analyze, and exploit the reservoir; and (3) the business environment under which the plan will be developed and implemented. Reservoir characterization is the essential to gain needed knowledge of the reservoir for reservoir management plan building. Reservoir characterization efforts can be appropriately scaled by considering the reservoir management context under which the plan is being built. Reservoir management plans de-optimize with time as technology and the business environment change or as new reservoir information indicates the reservoir characterization models on which the current plan is based are inadequate. BDM-Oklahoma and the Department of Energy have implemented a program of reservoir management demonstrations to encourage operators with limited resources and experience to learn, implement, and disperse sound reservoir management techniques through cooperative research and development projects whose objectives are to develop reservoir management plans. In each of the three projects currently underway, careful attention to reservoir management context assures a reservoir characterization approach that is sufficient, but not in excess of what is necessary, to devise and implement an effective reservoir management plan.

  17. Data assimilation in reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rommelse, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis aims at improving computer models that allow simulations of water, oil and gas flows in subsurface petroleum reservoirs. This is done by integrating, or assimilating, measurements into physics-bases models. In recent years petroleum technology has developed

  18. Identifying changing patterns of reservoir operating rules under various inflow alteration scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Maoyuan; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Gui, Ziling; Zhang, Xiaoqi; Zhang, Wei; Xiong, Lihua

    2017-06-01

    Operating rules are important in the long-term operation of reservoirs for its capability of coping with inflow uncertainty. The characteristics of inflow vary as a result of climate change and human activities, and using stationary operating rules would lead to inefficient reservoir operation. This study focuses on identifying changing patterns of operating rules under various inflow alteration scenarios. Two simulation methods, the simple adjustment method (SAM) and the stochastic reconstruction method (SRM), are used to generate three inflow alteration scenarios: shifts of mean, coefficient of variation (CV), and seasonality. A deterministic reservoir optimization model is established and then resolved using discrete differential dynamic programming algorithm. Finally, the operating rules under each scenario are derived using the linear fitting method. China's Three Gorges Reservoir is used as a case study. The results show that the SAM and SRM produce similar operating rules, which are sensitive to inflow changes during refill and drawdown periods. It is shown that (1) the increase (decrease) of inflow mean changes the operating rules, resulting in the increase (decrease) of the water releases while the shift of CV has little impact on operating rules; (2) the seasonality changes operating rules in opposite directions during refill and drawdown periods; (3) the changing patterns of operating rules would be superimposed by the superposition of various inflow alteration scenarios whereas the effects might be not obvious. These findings are helpful for adaptive operation of reservoirs under changing environment.

  19. Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

    2015-01-01

    Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU

  20. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-01-01

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

  1. Breast Cancer Management: Present Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. T. Singh

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The management of breast cancer is perhaps the most controversial of all and has evolved a sea change over the years. Contrast enhanced MRI imaging is emerging as the most efficient imaging diagnostic tool. Newer approaches for the biopsy of inoperable breast cancer are aimed at obtaining diagnostically adequate tissue samples while minimizing invasiveness and the risk of complications. The regional vigour that Halsted followed rigorously, albeit, achieved significant locoregional control, could not lead to improved long-term survival. With the passage of time, people have understood the systemic nature of the disease and the paramount need to incorporate systemic treatment even in relatively earlier stages and curtain surgical ablative techniques. The role of primary systemic therapy in the management of breast cancer is fast emerging as a vital option. In HER 2/neu gene overexpressed patients, addition of trastuzumab to the systemic treatment is a distinct improvement in overall survival. (Med J Indones 2007; 16:55-60 Keywords: breast cancer, tumour, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, systemic therapy

  2. Use of Operational Climate Forecasts in Reservoir Management and Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Lall, U.

    2005-12-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. Similarly, monthly updates of streamflow forecasts are useful in quantifying surplus and shortfall in addressing the change in streamflow potential during the season. In this study, an operational streamflow forecasts for managing the Angat Reservoir System, Philippines, is developed using the precipitation forecasts from Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) that are forced by persisted Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions. The methodology employs principal components regression (PCR) to downscale the AGCM predicted precipitation fields to monthly streamflow forecasts. By performing retrospective analyses that combines streamflow forecasts with a dynamic water allocation model, we show that use of updated climate forecasts in reservoir operation results in increased reservoir system yields in comparison to using the seasonal streamflow forecasts alone. Revising the reservoir operation strategy based on updated streamflow forecasts is particularly critical in hydropower systems, since the increased yields from reduced spillage could be effectively utilized for power generation during above-normal inflow years. Further, analyzing the system performance under different scenarios of storage and demand, we show that the utility of climate information based reservoir inflow forecasts is more pronounced for systems with low storage to demand ratio.

  3. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  4. Model based management of a reservoir system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scharaw, B.; Westerhoff, T. [Fraunhofer IITB, Ilmenau (Germany). Anwendungszentrum Systemtechnik; Puta, H.; Wernstedt, J. [Technische Univ. Ilmenau (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    The main goals of reservoir management systems consist of prevention against flood water damages, the catchment of raw water and keeping all of the quality parameters within their limits besides controlling the water flows. In consideration of these goals a system model of the complete reservoir system Ohra-Schmalwasser-Tambach Dietharz was developed. This model has been used to develop optimized strategies for minimization of raw water production cost, for maximization of electrical energy production and to cover flood situations, as well. Therefore a proper forecast of the inflow to the reservoir from the catchment areas (especially flooding rivers) and the biological processes in the reservoir is important. The forecast model for the inflow to the reservoir is based on the catchment area model of Lorent and Gevers. It uses area precipitation, water supply from the snow cover, evapotranspiration and soil wetness data to calculate the amount of flow in rivers. The other aim of the project is to ensure the raw water quality using quality models, as well. Then a quality driven raw water supply will be possible. (orig.)

  5. The management of the Diama reservoir (Senegal River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

    2003-04-01

    The Senegal River is regulated by 2 dams built in the 1980's by the "Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal" (OMVS), a river basin management organisation grouping Mali, Senegal and Mauritania. The initial objectives of OMVS, which were to regulate the Senegal flows in order to develop irrigated agriculture, produce hydropower and facilitate river navigation has been only partially met. The maintenance of the annual flood by the upstream dam (Manantali), initially to be phased out when irrigated agriculture would have replaced the traditional recession agriculture, is now scheduled to continue indefinitely on the basis of socio-economic and environmental concerns. This change of mindset has however not affected the management of the downstream dam (Diama). Initially conceived as a salt-wedge dam, its function evolved to a reservoir dam with a high and constant water level. During the dry season, the water level is maintained high and constant in order to reduce the pumping costs for the irrigated agriculture in the delta. During the flood season (July-October) the dam is primarily managed for risk avoidance: limit flooding downstream of the dam (especially the city of St. Louis) and secure the infrastructure of the dam itself. The permanent freshwater reservoir lake has adverse effects on ecosystems, on human and animal health and a high social cost for the traditional stakeholders of the deltaic floodplain (fishermen, livestock keepers and gatherers). Upstream of the reservoir there is an excess of stagnant freshwater and managers are confronted with the development of invasive species while substantial downstream flooding is essential for the estuarine ecosystems and local livelihoods. The presentation will review the different approaches to the management of the Diama reservoir and proposes different management scenarios and compares their economical, environmental, and social costs and benefits.

  6. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  7. Increasing Waterflooding Reservoirs in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management, Class III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerner, Roy; Clarke, Don; Walker, Scott; Phillips, Chris; Nguyen, John; Moos, Dan; Tagbor, Kwasi

    2001-08-07

    This project was intended to increase recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs, transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project.

  8. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2017-04-01

    The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% annual rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply by streamflow (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with constraints on irrigation supply (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although they were partially mitigated by lower losses due to storage excess discharge. However, land-use changes also decreased water quality by increasing sediment loads (+86 to +109%) and associated Phosphorus loads (+28 to +48%). This was mostly due to a projected replacement of existing pastures by sunflower cultivation for biodiesel, which was the major source of increased erosion. The combination of lower volumes and higher sediment and P flows also increased P concentrations in the reservoir (+29 to +93%), increasing conditions for eutrophication. Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes alone. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by improved supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; future water quality issues, however, could be addressed through land-use policies aiming at soil

  9. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  10. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  11. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  12. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  13. The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reservoir operation and management is usually patterned after the background of long standing water resources management experience. Reservoir management for optimum power production at any hydropower station requires constant assessment of the quantity of available water. The hydrographic responses of flow ...

  14. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    This project has used a multi-disciplinary approach employing geology, geophysics, and engineering to conduct advanced reservoir characterization and management activities to design and implement an optimized infill drilling program at the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit in Gaines County, Texas. The activities during the first Budget Period consisted of developing an integrated reservoir description from geological, engineering, and geostatistical studies, and using this description for reservoir flow simulation. Specific reservoir management activities were identified and tested. The geologically targeted infill drilling program currently being implemented is a result of this work. A significant contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost-effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability shallow-shelf carbonate (SSC) reservoirs. The techniques that are outlined for the formulation of an integrated reservoir description apply to all oil and gas reservoirs, but are specifically tailored for use in the heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs of West Texas.

  15. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  16. Integrated method to optimize well connection and platform placement on a multi-reservoir scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Sergio Henrique Guerra de; Madeira, Marcelo Gomes; Franca, Martha Salles [Halliburton, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mota, Rosane Oliveira; Silva, Edilon Ribeiro da; King, Vanessa Pereira Spear [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    This paper describes a workflow created to optimize the platform placement and well-platform connections on a multi reservoir scenario using an integrated reservoir simulator paired with an optimization engine. The proposed methodology describes how a new platform, being incorporated into a pre-existing asset, can be better used to develop newly-discovered fields, while helping increase the production of existing fields by sharing their production load. The sharing of production facilities is highly important in Brazilian offshore assets because of their high price (a few billion dollars per facility) and the fact that total production is usually limited to the installed capacity of liquid processing, which is an important constraint on high water-cut well production rates typical to this region. The case study asset used to present the workflow consists of two deep water oil fields, each one developed by its own production platform, and a newly-discovered field with strong aquifer support that will be entirely developed with a new production platform. Because this new field should not include injector wells owing to the strong aquifer presence, the idea is to consider reconnecting existing wells from the two pre-existing fields to better use the production resources. In this scenario, the platform location is an important optimization issue, as a balance between supporting the production of the planned wells on the new field and the production of re-routed wells from the existing fields must be reached to achieve improved overall asset production. If the new platform is too far away from any interconnected production well, pressure-drop issues along the pipeline might actually decrease production from the existing fields rather than augment it. The main contribution of this work is giving the reader insights on how to model and optimize these complex decisions to generate high-quality scenarios. (author)

  17. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling, Class II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergeron, Jack; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill; Bezant, Bryce

    2000-03-16

    The major purpose of this project was to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  18. INCREASING WATERFLOOD RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH IMPROVED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott Walker; Chris Phillips; Roy Koerner; Don Clarke; Dan Moos; Kwasi Tagbor

    2002-02-28

    This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

  19. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1995--September 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1995-09-12

    At this stage of the reservoir characterization research, the main emphasis is on the geostatistics and reservoir simulation. Progress is reported on geological analysis, reservoir simulation, and reservoir management.

  20. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  1. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  2. Master plan: Guntersville Reservoir Aquatic Plant Management. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-12-31

    In 1989, Congress provided funding to start a five-year comprehensive project to manage aquatic plants in Guntersville Reservoir, to be jointly implemented by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA serves as the overall project coordinator and is the lead agency for this project. Known as the Joint Agency Guntersville Project (JAGP), the project will test and demonstrate innovative management technologies, and incorporate the most effective technologies into a comprehensive aquatic plant management plan for Guntersville Reservoir. The JAGP is intended to serve as a National Demonstration Project for aquatic plant management. As part of this JAGP, the Master Plan for Aquatic Plant Management for the Guntersville Reservoir Project, Alabama-Tennessee is authorized by Corps Contract Number DACW62-90-C-0067.

  3. Review and Evaluation of Reservoir Management Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-28

    reports, published accounts of potential management options, effectiveness of management, and potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir...management options, effectiveness of management, potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir ecosystem processes and biota, and recommendations...and potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir ecosystem processes and biota, and recommendations for future research. This re- port

  4. Conservation implications of weed management of lake reservoirs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Management of weeds around lake reservoirs is often implemented to reduce any possibility of siltation. However, machineries used in weed management have resulted in habitat degradation and geometrical multiplication of weeds by chopping rhizomes and scattering seeds. In general, the removal offers some feedbacks ...

  5. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Müller

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Kessem–Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i recent conditions and (ii future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i rule curves with a high degree of freedom – this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  6. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Gebretsadik, Henok Y.; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Recently, the Kessem-Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i) recent conditions and (ii) future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i) rule curves with a high degree of freedom - this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii) smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  7. Flood risk management for large reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupart, M.

    2006-01-01

    Floods are a major risk for dams: uncontrolled reservoir water level may cause dam overtopping, and then its failure, particularly for fill dams. Poor control of spillway discharges must be taken into consideration too, as it can increase the flood consequences downstream. In both cases, consequences on the public or on properties may be significant. Spillway design to withstand extreme floods is one response to these risks, but must be complemented by strict operating rules: hydrological forecasting, surveillance and periodic equipment controls, operating guides and the training of operators are mandatory too, in order to guarantee safe operations. (author)

  8. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  9. Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navar, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

  10. The generation of three-dimensional petroleum reservoirs scenarios; Geracao de cenarios tridimensionais de reservatorios petroliferos canalizados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Andre Luiz F. [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil)]. E-mail: andre.alfa@gmail.com; Silva, Rosana M. da [Universidade Federal de Campo Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academica de Matematica e Estatistica]. E-mail: rosana@dme.ufcg.edu.br

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a prototype of a modeler aimed to obtain 3-dimensional geologic scenarios which simulate canalized petroleum reservoirs from information about the geometry of the geologic units that compound them and the wells' profiles, using as a base the 'Namorado' Field (Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro). The connected volumes that form a reservoir have proper shapes, which can be hardly modeled by known surfaces with parametric description (or implicit). The geologic units implemented by the prototype are formed by turbidity canals, which are represented by poliedric surfaces through triangulated webs. The 3-dimensional models that represent the reservoir geometry were obtained using the method of superposition of geologic units, according to the natural depositional sequence, through intersection operations between the geologic units modeled as poliedric surfaces. Limit boxes are used to optimize the calculus of intersections in the triangulated webs, using the algorithm proposed by Lo and Wang (2004). The validation of the 3-dimensional model, that models the reservoir, is done through the calculus of interiority, obtained from the implicit equations that describe the transversal sections of the canal's surface, whose domains include the identified intervals as reservoir in the data of previously informed wells. (author)

  11. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  12. e-Waste Management Scenarios in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Fatihah Suja; Rakmi Abdul Rahman; Arij Yusof; Mohd Shahbudin Masdar

    2014-01-01

    e-Waste, or electronic waste, disposal that is uncontrolled can be harmful to human health and the environment because e-waste contains toxic substances and heavy metals. However, if the waste is properly managed, it can become a business opportunity that produces high returns because e-waste also contains valuable materials, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. The government of Malaysia wants to ensure the safe, effective, and economically beneficial management of e-waste in Malay...

  13. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...

  14. The wastes management: possible scenario for 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capdevila, J.M.

    2003-03-01

    This document gathers the slides presented by J.M. Capdevila at the Seminar DEN/SAC the 13 mars 2003. They deal with the law of the 30 december 1991 concerning the radioactive wastes management, the research and development programs begun at the Cea and the short dated projects (2006), the forecast of the situation after 2006. (A.L.B.)

  15. Radioactive waste management - the Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raj, Kanwar

    2008-01-01

    In India, nuclear power generation programme and application of radioisotopes for health care and various other application is increasing steadily. With resultant increase in generation of radioactive waste, emphasis is on the minimization of generation of radioactive waste by deploying suitable processes and materials, segregation of waste streams at sources, recycle and re-use of useful components of waste and use of volume reduction techniques. The minimization of the radioactive waste is also essential to facilitate judicious use of the scarce land available for disposal, to reduce impact on the environment due to disposal and, finally to optimize the cost of radioactive waste management. This paper presents a bird's eye view of radioactive waste management programme in the country today

  16. Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

  17. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Jansen, J.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  18. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  19. Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marcé, R.; George, G.; Buscarinu, P.; Deidda, M.; Dunalska, J.; de Eyto, E.; Flaim, G.; Grossart, H. P.; Istvánovics, V.; Lenhardt, M.; Moreno-Ostos, E.; Obrador, B.; Ostrovsky, I.; Pierson, D. C.; Potužák, Jan; Poikane, S.; Rinke, K.; Rodríguez-Mozaz, S.; Staehr, P. A.; Šumberová, Kateřina; Waajen, G.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Weathers, K. C.; Zion, M.; Ibelings, B. W.; Jennings, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 20 (2016), s. 10780-10794 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD14045 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : monitoring of water resources * water reservoir management * sensors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.198, year: 2016

  20. Dredged Material Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement. McNary Reservoir and Lower Snake River Reservoirs. Appendix C: Economic Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...; for managment of dredged material from these reservoirs; and for maintenance of flow conveyance capacity at the most upstream extent of the Lower Granite reservoir for the remaining economic life of the dam and reservoir project (to year 2074...

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marziali Laura

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by Igeo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning.

  2. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Annual report, June 13, 1994--June 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1996-11-01

    This project has used a multi-disciplinary approach employing geology, geophysics, and engineering to conduct advanced reservoir characterization and management activities to design and implement an optimized infill drilling program at the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit in Gaines County, Texas. The activities during the first Budget Period have consisted of developing an integrated reservoir description from geological, engineering, and geostatistical studies, and using this description for reservoir flow simulation. Specific reservoir management activities are being identified and tested. The geologically targeted infill drilling program will be implemented using the results of this work. A significant contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost-effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability shallow-shelf carbonate (SSC) reservoirs. The techniques that are outlined for the formulation of an integrated reservoir description apply to all oil and gas reservoirs, but are specifically tailored for use in the heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs of West Texas.

  3. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1998-01-01

    Infill drilling if wells on a uniform spacing without regard to reservoir performance and characterization foes not optimize reservoir development because it fails to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. New and emerging technologies, such as geostatistical modeling, rigorous decline curve analysis, reservoir rock typing, and special core analysis can be used to develop a 3-D simulation model for prediction of infill locations.

  4. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. K. Pande

    1998-10-29

    Initial drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, must become a process of the past. Such efforts do not optimize reservoir development as they fail to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: o Large, discontinuous pay intervals o Vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties o Low reservoir energy o High residual oil saturation o Low recovery efficiency

  5. Evaluation of sediment management strategies on reservoir storage depletion rate: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Sterk, G.

    2010-01-01

    Sedimentation aspects have a major role during the design of new reservoir projects because life of the reservoir mainly depends upon sediment handling during reservoir operation. Therefore, proper sediment management strategies should be adopted to enhance the life span of reservoirs. Basha

  6. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  7. Climate change impacts on water supply: implications for reservoir management in Upper Sabor, northeast Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Monteiro, António T.; Azevedo, João; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios project warmer temperatures and less precipitation in Mediterranean watersheds. This can aggravate drought conditions, with negative impacts on water supply. Here, reservoirs may play an important role to mitigate these impacts. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in the reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this issue for the Upper Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. This is a medium watershed (403km2), part of the Sabor river, a tributary of Douro (one of the major rivers in the Iberian Peninsula). It is a mountainous watershed (up to 1500m), characterized by humid Mediterranean climate, with three dry months in summer. Almost 52% of the area is occupied by shrubland and 18% agriculture. Water supply for about 33 000 people has been based almost exclusively in one reservoir, but constant problems of water supply in dry summers, which coincide with a doubling of population due to summer holidays, led to the construction of a new reservoir in 2015. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for a climate change impact assessment, considering the current water supply regime (single reservoir) and the construction of the new reservoir. SWAT was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Results from four GCMs (General Circulation Models) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations; climate scenarios for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 were compared with a control period in 1981-2000. In the future, a general increase of temperatures is expected in the Upper Sabor watershed, especially in the maximum temperature under RCP 8.5 scenario for 2041-2060 (Tmax: +2.88°C). The change in precipitation is more uncertain, with larger differences according to the selected climate model. Annual precipitation would

  8. Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1980-11-01

    The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis

  9. Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Sanagustín, Mar; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Blat, Josep

    2009-01-01

    Pérez-Sanagustín, M., Hernández-Leo D., & Blat, J. (accepted). Conditioning Factors for Group Management in Blended Learning Scenarios. The 9th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies. July, 14-18, 2009, Riga, Latvia.

  10. Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgeniya Arushanyan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

  11. A pore-level scenario for the development of mixed-wettability in oil reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovscek, A.R.; Wong, H.; Radke, C.J.

    1992-09-01

    Understanding the role of thin films in porous media is vital if wettability is to be elucidated at the pore level. The type and thickness of films coating pore walls determines reservoir wettability and whether or not reservoir rock can be altered from its initial state of wettability. Pore shape, especially pore wall curvature, is an important factor in determining wetting-film thicknesses. Yet, pore shape and the physics of thin wetting films are generally neglected in models of flow in porous rocks. This paper incorporates thin-film forces into a collection of star-shaped capillary tubes model to describe the geological development of mixed-wettability in reservoir rock. Here, mixed-wettability refers to continuous and distinct oil and water-wetting surfaces coexisting in the porous medium. The proposed model emphasizes the remarkable role of thin films. New pore-level fluid configurations arise that are quite unexpected. For example, efficient water displacement of oil (i.e, low residual oil saturation) characteristic of mixed-wettability porous media is ascribed to interconnected oil lenses or rivulets which bridge the walls adjacent to a pore corner. Predicted residual oil saturations are approximately 35 % less in mixed-wet rock compared to completely water-wet rock. Calculated capillary pressure curves mimic those of mixed-wet porous media in the primary drainage of water, imbibition of water, and secondary drainage modes. Amott-Harvey indices range from {minus}0.18 to 0.36 also in good agreement with experimental values. (Morrow et al, 1986; Judhunandan and Morrow, 1991).

  12. 75 FR 40034 - Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek...-managed public land on Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort Patrick Henry, South Holston, Watauga, and.... Watauga and Wilbur reservoirs are along the Watauga River. Beaver Creek and Clear Creek reservoirs are on...

  13. Modelling the impacts of altered management practices, land use and climate changes on the water quality of the Millbrook catchment-reservoir system in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hong Hanh; Recknagel, Friedrich; Meyer, Wayne; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Shrestha, Manoj Kumar

    2017-11-01

    Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires taking into account the potential effects of their catchments' development. This study is an attempt to estimate the daily patterns of nutrients transport in the catchment - reservoir systems through the application of the ensemble of complementary models SWAT-SALMO. SWAT quantifies flow, nitrate and phosphate loadings originating in catchments before entering downstream reservoirs meanwhile SALMO determines phosphate, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations within the reservoirs. The study applies to the semi-arid Millbrook catchment-reservoir system that supplies drinking water to north-eastern suburbs of Adelaide, South Australia. The catchment hosts viti- and horticultural land uses. The warm-monomictic, mesotrophic reservoir is artificially aerated in summer. After validating the simulation results for both Millbrook catchment and reservoir, a comprehensive scenario analysis has been conducted to reveal cascading effects of altered management practices, land uses and climate conditions on water quality in the reservoir. Results suggest that the effect on reservoir condition in summer would be severe, most likely resulting in chlorophyll-a concentrations of greater than 40 μg/l if the artificial destratification was not applied from early summer. A 50% curbing of water diversion from an external pipeline to the catchment will slightly limit chlorophyll-a concentrations by 1.22% as an effect of reduced inflow phosphate loads. The simulation of prospective land use scenarios converting 50% of present pasture in the Millbrook catchment into residential and orchards areas indicates an increase of summer chlorophyll-a concentrations by 9.5-107.9%, respectively in the reservoir. Global warming scenarios based on the high emission simulated by SWAT-SALMO did result in earlier growth of chlorophyll-a but overall the effects on water quality in the Millbrook reservoir was not significant. However scenarios

  14. Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    provide a more flexible tool for future and prospective scenarios which are not covered by data driven models [3]. [1] Kühn M, Stöfen H (2005) A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand. Hydrogeology Journal 13, 606-626, doi: 10.1007/s10040-004-0377-6 [2] Rose JL, Zemansky G (2013) Updated Hydrogeological Evaluation of the Waiwera Geothermal Aquifer. GNS Scientific Consultancy Report 2013/67, GNS Institute of Geological & Nuclear Science, Wellington, New Zealand [3] Altmannsberger C (2015) Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand). BSc Thesis, University of Potsdam, Earth and Environmental Sciences (in German, unpublished)

  15. Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís A. Scola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.

  16. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  17. Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

  18. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P.

    2004-01-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  19. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ackere, Ann; Ochoa, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  20. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

    2015-01-01

    A hydroeconomic optimization approach is used to guide water management in a Chinese river basin with the objectives of meeting water quantity and water quality constraints, in line with the China 2011 No. 1 Policy Document and 2015 Ten-point Water Plan. The proposed modeling framework couples...... water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses...... a variant of stochastic dynamic programming known as the water value method. Nonlinearity arising from the water quality constraints is handled with an effective hybrid method combining genetic algorithms and linear programming. Untreated pollutant loads are represented by biochemical oxygen demand (BOD...

  1. Transition scenarios towards sustained Pu-management in China - 5504

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, C.; Drevon, C.; Favet, D.; Avrin, A.P.; Carlier, B.

    2015-01-01

    The Chinese nuclear reactor park is growing rapidly with already some 250 GWe projected to be operational by mid-century and with even larger nuclear reactor parks during the second half of this century to match the energy demand in a sustainable way. Such a large and fast growing nuclear reactor park goes with anticipated challenges with regard to the fuel cycle with essentially a focus on the rapidly growing inventory of used nuclear fuel. China is considering various options towards a more sustainable nuclear energy park with the recycling of fissile materials in various types of reactors being the backbone towards such sustainable nuclear future. This paper briefs on an analysis of the transition towards a continued responsible and flexible management of plutonium and uranium in this Chinese nuclear reactor park highlighting the results of nuclear energy systems scenario technical-economic analysis for LWR-MOX and LWR-SFR scenarios. Preliminary analysis show that the 2 described options lead to a sustainable closed cycle system while implementing early a responsible management of fast growing generated used fuel inventory

  2. Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Castelletti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply, using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

  3. USING E-COLLABORATION TO IMPROVE MANAGEMENT EDUCATION: THREE SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Noëlle Bessagnet

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential impact of collaborative technologies in improving management education. The first goal is to expose students to tools and practices that not only assist them with their current studies, but also serve to reinforce individual and team competencies that can facilitate their entry into the workforce. In their positions as future managers they will be expected to not only be familiar with common business practices but also to understand the implications of information technology for business; in this case with emphasis on tools and techniques that can help businesses flourish in the networked economy. With an ever-increasing recognition that e-learning tools are important for (re-training employees, these three scenarios offer examples of how business schools might expand the boundaries of e-collaboration to help their students. These experiments have been conducted in management programs. In the first two scenarios, students use collaborative platforms in some of their daily work. The third experiment is based on a student-centred design of a learning portal. Our experience reinforces a certain number of hypotheses influencing the impact of collaborative technologies in management education. To begin with, information systems are often flawed mirrors of the managerial system that they are designed to represent. Secondly, the potential value of collaborative technologies is strongly influenced by organizational contexts, both in and between the university and the business community. Thirdly, the effectiveness of collaborative technologies depends to a large degree upon the depth and coherence of learning objectives fixed for learning and work places. Finally, improving the effectiveness of collaborative technologies requires aligning the design of learning environments with the corporate cultures and visions we are trying to reproduce.

  4. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  5. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  6. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs

  7. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, Amarisa; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  9. Managing Risk in Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel P. Stormont

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Disaster areas are one of the most challenging environments faced by mankind. Uncertainty, hazards, and limited availability of rescuers all impact the ability to save lives. Prepositioned autonomous rescue robots offer promise in assisting the first responders to a disaster site, but there is a challenge to using robots in hazardous environments: numerous studies have shown that human rescuers lack trust in fully autonomous systems. This paper introduces the aspects of disaster areas that make them so challenging. The use of robots as a risk management tool for human rescuers is introduced. Then some of the factors that limit human trust in robots are addressed – including one of the key factors: reliability. The design of a computer model used to investigate issues of trust and the impact of reliability in a firefighting scenario is discussed and the results are analyzed. Finally, some preliminary conclusions and plans for further work in this area are presented.

  10. E-waste scenario in India, its management and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wath, Sushant B; Dutt, P S; Chakrabarti, T

    2011-01-01

    Electronic waste or E-waste comprises of old, end-of-life electronic appliances such as computers, laptops, TVs, DVD players, refrigerators, freezers, mobile phones, MP3 players, etc., which have been disposed of by their original users. E-waste contains many hazardous constituents that may negatively impact the environment and affect human health if not properly managed. Various organizations, bodies, and governments of many countries have adopted and/or developed the environmentally sound options and strategies for E-waste management to tackle the ever growing threat of E-waste to the environment and human health. This paper presents E-waste composition, categorization, Global and Indian E-waste scenarios, prospects of recoverable, recyclable, and hazardous materials found in the E-waste, Best Available Practices, recycling, and recovery processes followed, and their environmental and occupational hazards. Based on the discussion, various challenges for E-waste management particularly in India are delineated, and needed policy interventions were discussed.

  11. CO2 plume management in saline reservoir sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frailey, S.M.; Finley, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    A significant difference between injecting CO2 into saline aquifers for sequestration and injecting fluids into oil reservoirs or natural gas into aquifer storage reservoirs is the availability and use of other production and injection wells surrounding the primary injection well(s). Of major concern for CO2 sequestration using a single well is the distribution of pressure and CO2 saturation within the injection zone. Pressure is of concern with regards to caprock integrity and potential migration of brine or CO2 outside of the injection zone, while CO2 saturation is of interest for storage rights and displacement efficiency. For oil reservoirs, the presence of additional wells is intended to maximize oil recovery by injecting CO2 into the same hydraulic flow units from which the producing wells are withdrawing fluids. Completing injectors and producers in the same flow unit increases CO2 throughput, maximizes oil displacement efficiency, and controls pressure buildup. Additional injectors may surround the CO2 injection well and oil production wells in order to provide external pressure to these wells to prevent the injected CO2 from migrating from the pattern between two of the producing wells. Natural gas storage practices are similar in that to reduce the amount of "cushion" gas and increase the amount of cycled or working gas, edge wells may be used for withdrawal of gas and center wells used for gas injection. This reduces loss of gas to the formation via residual trapping far from the injection well. Moreover, this maximizes the natural gas storage efficiency between the injection and production wells and reduces the areal extent of the natural gas plume. Proposed U.S. EPA regulations include monitoring pressure and suggest the "plume" may be defined by pressure in addition to the CO2 saturated area. For pressure monitoring, it seems that this can only be accomplished by injection zone monitoring wells. For pressure, these wells would not need to be very

  12. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-10-01

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  13. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-11-13

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  14. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Holm, Peter E.; Trapp, Stefan; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2015-10-01

    A hydroeconomic optimization approach is used to guide water management in a Chinese river basin with the objectives of meeting water quantity and water quality constraints, in line with the China 2011 No. 1 Policy Document and 2015 Ten-point Water Plan. The proposed modeling framework couples water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses a variant of stochastic dynamic programming known as the water value method. Nonlinearity arising from the water quality constraints is handled with an effective hybrid method combining genetic algorithms and linear programming. Untreated pollutant loads are represented by biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and the resulting minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is computed with the Streeter-Phelps equation and constrained to match Chinese water quality targets. The baseline water scarcity and operational costs are estimated to 15.6 billion CNY/year. Compliance to water quality grade III causes a relatively low increase to 16.4 billion CNY/year. Dilution plays an important role and increases the share of surface water allocations to users situated furthest downstream in the system. The modeling framework generates decision rules that result in the economically efficient strategy for complying with both water quantity and water quality constraints.

  15. Diagnosis and management of narcolepsy in the Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sachin Sureshbabu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The diagnosis and management of narcolepsy in the Indian context needs to be revisited especially in the wake of concerns raised by sleep medicine experts that the entity could be formidably underdiagnosed, as well as undertreated in our setting. Materials and Methods: The history, clinical records, polysomnographic/multiple sleep latency test data, and treatment records of five hundred consecutive patients attending a dedicated sleep clinic between the years 2013 and 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. The response to treatment measures and improvement in daytime functioning were periodically assessed by personal/telephonic interview and E-mail communication. Results: Thirteen patients were diagnosed with narcolepsy based on the standard criteria of which three had cataplexy. The mean age of presentation was 23.23 years and the male:female ratio was 2.25:1. The mean duration from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis was 4.2 years. Two patients responded to nonpharmacological interventions alone, and six to modafinil, while two patients remained symptomatic and required treatment with methylphenidate. One patient was lost to follow-up, while two others are due for their first follow-up. Conclusion: A refurbished outlook of the diagnostic methodology and treatment paths tailored to our clinical scenario can potentially impact the future of narcolepsy management and research in our country.

  16. Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

    2017-08-15

    Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

  17. Reservoir management strategy for East Randolph Field, Randolph Township, Portage County, Ohio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safley, L.E.; Salamy, S.P.; Young, M.A.; Fowler, M.L.; Wing, J.L.; Thomas, J.B.; Mills, J.; Wood, D.

    1998-07-01

    The primary objective of the Reservoir Management Field Demonstration Program is to demonstrate that multidisciplinary reservoir management teams using appropriate software and methodologies with efforts scaled to the size of the resource are a cost-effective method for: Increasing current profitability of field operations; Forestalling abandonment of the reservoir; and Improving long-term economic recovery for the company. The primary objective of the Reservoir Management Demonstration Project with Belden and Blake Corporation is to develop a comprehensive reservoir management strategy to improve the operational economics and optimize oil production from East Randolph field, Randolph Township, Portage County, Ohio. This strategy identifies the viable improved recovery process options and defines related operational and facility requirements. In addition, strategies are addressed for field operation problems, such as paraffin buildup, hydraulic fracture stimulation, pumping system optimization, and production treatment requirements, with the goal of reducing operating costs and improving oil recovery.

  18. BEKWAAM, a model fit for reservoir design and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benoist, A.P.; Brinkman, A.G.; Diepenbeek, van P.M.J.A.; Waals, J.M.J.

    1998-01-01

    In the Province of Limburg in the Netherlands a new reservoir will be used for the drinking water production of 20 million m3 per annum from the year 2002. With the use of this reservoir the WML is shifting towards the use of surface water (River Meuse) as primary source instead of ground water.

  19. The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bheema

    The objective is to develop functional hydrological relationship between (rainfall, inflow, reservoir storage and turbine releases) over the dam. This will provide scientific basis for operational decisions which can lead to optimum power plant utilization. 1.1. The Study Area. The study area is the Shiroro dam reservoir.

  20. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  1. Management of complex multi-reservoir water distribution systems using advanced control theoretic tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Chmielowski, Wojciech Z

    2013-01-01

    This study discusses issues of optimal water management in a complex distribution system. The main elements of the water-management system under consideration are retention reservoirs, among which water transfers are possible, and a network of connections between these reservoirs and water treatment plants (WTPs). System operation optimisation involves determining the proper water transport routes and their flow volumes from the retention reservoirs to the WTPs, and the volumes of possible transfers among the reservoirs, taking into account transport-related delays for inflows, outflows and water transfers in the system. Total system operation costs defined by an assumed quality coefficient should be minimal. An analytical solution of the optimisation task so formulated has been obtained as a result of using Pontriagin’s maximum principle with reference to the quality coefficient assumed. Stable start and end conditions in reservoir state trajectories have been assumed. The researchers have taken into accou...

  2. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    -based reserve, qualitatively, to a Value-at-Risk-based calculation of solvency capital requirements. This brings out perspectives for our results in relation to qualifying the standard formula of Solvency II or using a scenario-based approach in internal models. Our results are powerful for various applications...... of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario...... and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies....

  3. Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

    2013-04-01

    The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

  4. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Oil Reservoirs Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea

    . The controller consists of -A model based optimizer for maximizing some predicted financial measure of the reservoir (e.g. the net present value). -A parameter and state estimator. -Use of the moving horizon principle for data assimilation and implementation of the computed control input. The optimizer uses...... Optimization has been suggested to compensate for inherent geological uncertainties in an oil field. In robust optimization of an oil reservoir, the water injection and production borehole pressures are computed such that the predicted net present value of an ensemble of permeability field realizations...... equivalent strategy is not justified for the particular case studied in this paper. The third contribution of this thesis is a mean-variance method for risk mitigation in production optimization of oil reservoirs. We introduce a return-risk bicriterion objective function for the profit-risk tradeoff...

  5. Use of modified nanoparticles in oil and gas reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkenburg, D.H.; Chin, P.T.K.; Fischer, H.R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a water dispersed nano sensor cocktail based on InP/ZnS quantum dots (QDs) and atomic silver clusters with a bright and visible luminescence combined with optimized sensor functionalities for the water flooding process. The QDs and Ag nano sensors were tested in simulated reservoir

  6. Design and modeling of reservoir operation strategies for sediment management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloff, C.J.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Heynert, K.V.; Mohamed, Y.A.

    2015-01-01

    Appropriate operation strategies that allow for sediment flushing and sluicing (sediment routing) can reduce rapid storage losses of (hydropower and water-supply) reservoirs. In this study we have shown, using field observations and computational models, that the efficiency of these operations

  7. The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data (rainfall, inflow, reservoir storage and turbine release) at Shiroro dam were carried out with the aim of detecting spatio-temporal trends. Correlation and regression analysis were used to develop models for the variables. The correlation of between 0.120 and 0.774 revealed ...

  8. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0, landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1, incineration (Sc-2, incineration combined with composting (Sc-3, and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4. The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6. The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4.

  9. Radioactive waste management and disposal scenario for fusion power reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabara, Takashi; Yamano, Naoki [Sumitomo Atomic Energy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao

    1997-10-01

    The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a light water reactor (LWR) have been evaluated and compared. At first, the amount and the radioactive level of the radwaste generated in five fusion reactors ware evaluated by an activation calculation code. Next, a possible radwaste disposal scenario applicable to fusion radwaste in Japan is considered and the disposal cost evaluated under certain assumptions. The exposure doses are evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-rays during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical LWR was estimated based on a literature survey and the disposal cost was evaluated using the same assumptions as for the fusion reactors. It is found that the relative cost of disposal is strongly dependent on the cost for interim storage of medium level waste of fusion reactors and the cost of high level waste for the LWR. (author)

  10. Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

  11. Low flows and reservoir management for the Durance River basin (Southern France) in the 2050s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    . A model of water management similar to the tools used by Electricité De France was calibrated to simulate the behavior of the three reservoirs Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. The results demonstrate the relatively good performance of this simplified model and its ability to represent the influence of reservoir operations on the natural hydrological river flow regime, the decision-making involved in water management and the interactions at regional scale. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance River basin. This presentation will focus on the specific tools developed within the project to simulate water management and water abstractions. The main conclusions related to the risk of water shortage in the 2050s and the level of satisfaction for each water use will be also discussed.

  12. Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

  13. Impact of overpressures on subsurface exploration and reservoir management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukla, P.

    2009-04-01

    The presence of overpressures in the subsurface poses major problems for safety and cost efficient well design, but less well known is their importance for exploration and reservoir development. Overpressures reduce the vertical effective stress (VES, the difference between the vertical stress and fluid pressure) experienced by the sediment. As sediment compaction is primarily an irreversible function of VES, a reduction in VES will halt compaction. Similarly, a reduction in its rate of increase will reduce the rate of porosity loss. Porosity and other key rock properties will therefore reflect changes in vertical effective stress. Any measurement that senses porosity, or seismic velocity (e.g. sonic, density or resistivity logs) will provide a means of estimating overpressures. The reduction of porosity with vertical effective stress is exponential in nature. Consequently, overpressures generated early in the burial history, such as those generated by disequilibrium compaction, will have a greater impact on rock properties than those generated or emplaced during late burial. Indeed, late overpressuring, so-called inflation, may have little or no impact on rock properties and therefore methods for the prediction of overpressures from properties such as seismic velocity will not provide reliable pressure estimates. In order for fluid pressures to rise in a basin, the pressures have to be contained by rocks with sufficiently low permeability. Overpressures are transient and gradually leak away when the generation mechanism ceases to operate. In some areas, such as in parts of the central North Sea and the Middle East, fluid pressures have built up until the failure envelope of the seal is reached, leading to a subsequent loss of the sealing capacity. The failure envelope is usually considered to be determined by the minimum horizontal stress. The failure pressure for the seal systematically increases with depth and this variation will control the maximum pressures

  14. Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

  15. Reservoir compartmentalization and management strategies: Lessons learned in the Illinois basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grube, J.P.; Crockett, J.E.; Huff, B.G. [and others

    1997-08-01

    A research project jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Illinois State Geological Survey focused on the Cypress and Aux Vases Formations (Mississippian), major clastic reservoirs in the Illinois Basin. Results from the research showed that understanding the nature and distribution of reservoir compartments, and using effective reservoir management strategies, can significantly improve recovery efficiencies from oil fields in this mature basin. Compartments can be most effectively drained where they are geologically well defined and reservoir management practices are coordinated through unified, compartment-wide, development programs. Our studies showed that the Cypress and Aux Vases reservoirs contain lateral and vertical permeability barriers forming compartments that range in size from isolated, interlaminated sandstone and shale beds to sandstone bodies tens of feet in thickness and more than a mile in length. Stacked or shingled, genetically similar sandstone bodies are commonly separated by thin impermeable intervals that can be difficult to distinguish on logs and can, therefore, cause correlation problems, even between wells drilled on spacing of less than ten acres. Lateral separation of sandstone bodies causes similar problems. Reservoir compartmentalization reduces primary and particularly secondary recovery by trapping pockets of by-passed or banked oil. Compartments can be detected by comparing recovery factors of genetically similar sandstone bodies within a field; using packers to separate commingled intervals and analyzing fluid recoveries and pressures; making detailed core-to-log calibrations that identify compartment boundaries; and analyzing pressure data from waterflood programs.

  16. New developments in high resolution borehole seismology and their applications to reservoir development and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Single-well seismology, Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiles (VSP`s) and Crosswell seismology are three new seismic techniques that we jointly refer to as borehole seismology. Borehole seismic techniques are of great interest because they can obtain much higher resolution images of oil and gas reservoirs than what is obtainable with currently used seismic techniques. The quality of oil and gas reservoir management decisions depend on the knowledge of both the large and the fine scale features in the reservoirs. Borehole seismology is capable of mapping reservoirs with an order of magnitude improvement in resolution compared with currently used technology. In borehole seismology we use a high frequency seismic source in an oil or gas well and record the signal in the same well, in other wells, or on the surface of the earth.

  17. Managing geological uncertainty in CO2-EOR reservoir assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkenhuysen, Kris; Piessens, Kris

    2014-05-01

    Recently the European Parliament has agreed that an atlas for the storage potential of CO2 is of high importance to have a successful commercial introduction of CCS (CO2 capture and geological storage) technology in Europe. CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is often proposed as a promising business case for CCS, and likely has a high potential in the North Sea region. Traditional economic assessments for CO2-EOR largely neglect the geological reality of reservoir uncertainties because these are difficult to introduce realistically in such calculations. There is indeed a gap between the outcome of a reservoir simulation and the input values for e.g. cost-benefit evaluations, especially where it concerns uncertainty. The approach outlined here is to turn the procedure around, and to start from which geological data is typically (or minimally) requested for an economic assessment. Thereafter it is evaluated how this data can realistically be provided by geologists and reservoir engineers. For the storage of CO2 these parameters are total and yearly CO2 injection capacity, and containment or potential on leakage. Specifically for the EOR operation, two additional parameters can be defined: the EOR ratio, or the ratio of recovered oil over injected CO2, and the CO2 recycling ratio of CO2 that is reproduced after breakthrough at the production well. A critical but typically estimated parameter for CO2-EOR projects is the EOR ratio, taken in this brief outline as an example. The EOR ratio depends mainly on local geology (e.g. injection per well), field design (e.g. number of wells), and time. Costs related to engineering can be estimated fairly good, given some uncertainty range. The problem is usually to reliably estimate the geological parameters that define the EOR ratio. Reliable data is only available from (onshore) CO2-EOR projects in the US. Published studies for the North Sea generally refer to these data in a simplified form, without uncertainty ranges, and are

  18. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  19. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

  20. Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load

  1. Satellite Power System (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vajk, J. P.

    1978-01-01

    The possible benefits of a Satellite Power System (SPS) program, both domestically and internationally, justify detailed and imaginative investigation of the issues involved in financing and managing such a large-scale program. In this study, ten possible methods of financing a SPS program are identified ranging from pure government agency to private corporations. The following were analyzed and evaluated: (1) capital requirements for SPS; (2) ownership and control; (3) management principles; (4) organizational forms for SPS; (5) criteria for evaluation; (6) detailed description and preliminary evaluation of alternatives; (7) phased approaches; and (8) comparative evaluation. Key issues and observations and recommendations for further study are also presented.

  2. Statewide planning scenario synthesis : transportation congestion measurement and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-09-01

    This study is a review of current practices in 13 states to: (1) measure traffic congestion and its costs; and (2) manage congestion with programs and techniques that do not involve the building of new highway capacity. In regard to the measures of c...

  3. Design in Practice: Scenarios for Improving Management Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlenker, Lee; Chantelot, Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to design in business, Design Thinking has had little impact on the quality of business school education. Building upon the foundations of long-standing critiques of management education and the potential for student-centric learning, the authors propose that the use of Design in Practice can significantly…

  4. The development of area wide traffic management scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Zuylen, H.J.; Lu, S.; Li, J.; Yusen, C.

    2014-01-01

    Traffic management in cities with congestion is a big challenge with still unused opportunities. Intersection control is a corner stone but this should be done in an area-wide context. The dominant traffic process on urban roads is the traffic flow on the intersections. Spill back is a most

  5. Satellite power system (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kierolff, H.E.

    1978-10-01

    The major factors involved in the evaluation of the SPS feasibility and in SPS financing and management are presented. Areas for further research are also enumerated. Project downside risk at this time is considered high. Numerous factors including satellite malfunction and interference, and potential international repercussions threaten the project. Opportunity costs associated with alternative methods of power generation have not been analyzed sufficiently. Finally, cost overruns may be particularly large. Nevertheless, it is premature to conclude that the SPS is not feasible. Several steps can be taken to materially reduce the risks, and these are reviewed. Financing and management requirements for the SPS will differ markedly at each of its three stages of growth--research and development, start-up, and maturity. It is clear, however, that the U.S. government (and perhaps a consortium of governments) will need to finance and manage the project during the first two (and perhaps all three) stages. The private sector, nevertheless, will participate from the beginning in the roles of suppliers and contractors. As such, they will form an important part of the SPS organizational pyramid. Administering this dynamic pyramid and representing the SPS in its relationships with its external environent present a supreme challenge to the practice of management.

  6. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... on how to model future scenarios in LCA. This thesis highlights critical findings aiming at strengthening the role of LCA in decision support and strategic planning for waste management. In particular, the thesis thoroughly investigated the future scenario methods, the existing guidance on modelling...

  7. Scenario Of Solid Waste Management In Hetauda Municipality, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bigyan Neupane

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to enlighten the solid waste management of Hetauda Municipality in Makwanpur district of an area of 44.5 sq. km. The total human population of the municipality is 84,671 (CBS 2011. Out of 11 wards, 5 wards (1, 2, 3, 4 and 10 were selected for the present study. In total 50 households, 10 institutions and 10 commercial sectors were selected from studied wards from which samples of different types of wastes were collected, segregated and weighed. Weight was calculated using a digital spring balance and a bag 0.043 m3 was used for the estimation of volume. Organic wastes were found to be dominant in the household (51.73% and commercial sectors (61.70% whereas in institutions, plastic (50.36% and papers (38.19% were prevailing. The findings revealed that per capita 155.4 gm/person/day household waste was generated in Hetauda Municipality. The residents are also aware of the harmful effects of the wastes, and demand an effective solid waste management services. Though they are aware about the sustainable management of wastes, due to erratic collection of wastes, some of them throw the wastes in the open lands - The local people also participate in the awareness campaigns organized by local NGOs and municipal. Solid waste management strategies are timely need for an effective management of anthropogenic wastes. Regular waste collection, improvement of dumping sites and sufficient number of composting plants are recommended in the municipality. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 105-114 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9214

  8. Developing Emergency Scenario through the Project Management Body of Knowledge Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Kalatpour

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The sound planning is needed for effective implementation of an emergency exercise. The exercise planning is manifested in the scenario development process. Despite the frequent execution of exercises in the industries and the public domain, there is no uniform pattern for designing scenarios. The present paper aims at devising a new pattern based on the project management body of knowledge ( PMBOK approach. Methods: Ten principles of the PMBOK and their substructures were analyzed. The application processes were extracted in two parts the structural and executive parts. Then, these processes were translated into the its equivalent norms in the emerging scenario development process. Finally, a pattern was proposed for preparing an emergency scenario. Result: The proposed method was developed in a ten step process. Step by step implementation of these processes can help one to make an acceptable scenario. In comparison with the two most common international patterns for developing a scenario, the present method has some unique characteristics. Quality, Time, Cost and Interested Parties management are the mentioned properties. In general, the present method has some components that represent more details for users.. Conclusions : Using the project management body of knowledge approach one can develop a standard frame for developing an emergency scenario.

  9. Superposition well-test method for reservoir characterization and pressure management during CO2 injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    As a significant fraction of a carbon storage project's budget is devoted to site characterization and monitoring, there has been an intense drive in recent years to both lower cost and improve the quality of data obtained. Two data streams that are cheap and always available are pressure and flow rate measurements from the injection well. Falloff testing, in which the well is shut-in for some period of time and the pressure decline curve measured, is often used to probe the storage zone and look for indications of hydraulic barriers, fracture-dominated flow, and other reservoir characteristics. These tests can be used to monitor many hydromechanical processes of interest, including hydraulic fracturing and fault reactivation. Unfortunately, the length of the shut-in period controls how far away from the injector information may be obtained. For operational reasons these tests are typically kept short and infrequent, limiting their usefulness. In this work, we present a new analysis method in which ongoing injection data is used to reconstruct an equivalent falloff test, without shutting in the well. The entire history of injection may therefore be used as a stand in for a very long test. The method relies upon a simple superposition principle to transform a multi-rate injection sequence into an equivalent single-rate process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method using injection data from the Snøhvit storage project. We also explore its utility in an active pressure management scenario. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  10. A stochastic conflict resolution model for water quality management in reservoir river systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerachian, Reza; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2007-04-01

    In this paper, optimal operating rules for water quality management in reservoir-river systems are developed using a methodology combining a water quality simulation model and a stochastic GA-based conflict resolution technique. As different decision-makers and stakeholders are involved in the water quality management in reservoir-river systems, a new stochastic form of the Nash bargaining theory is used to resolve the existing conflict of interests related to water supply to different demands, allocated water quality and waste load allocation in downstream river. The expected value of the Nash product is considered as the objective function of the model which can incorporate the inherent uncertainty of reservoir inflow. A water quality simulation model is also developed to simulate the thermal stratification cycle in the reservoir, the quality of releases from different outlets as well as the temporal and spatial variation of the pollutants in the downstream river. In this study, a Varying Chromosome Length Genetic Algorithm (VLGA), which has computational advantages comparing to other alternative models, is used. VLGA provides a good initial solution for Simple Genetic Algorithms and comparing to Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) reduces the number of state transitions checked in each stage. The proposed model, which is called Stochastic Varying Chromosome Length Genetic Algorithm with water Quality constraints (SVLGAQ), is applied to the Ghomrud Reservoir-River system in the central part of Iran. The results show, the proposed model for reservoir operation and waste load allocation can reduce the salinity of the allocated water demands as well as the salinity build-up in the reservoir.

  11. Optimal Reoperation of Multi-Reservoirs for Integrated Watershed Management with Multiple Benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Constructing reservoirs can make more efficient use of water resources for human society. However, the negative impacts of these projects on the environment are often ignored. Optimal reoperation of reservoirs, which considers not only in socio-economic values but also environmental benefits, is increasingly important. A model of optimal reoperation of multi-reservoirs for integrated watershed management with multiple benefits was proposed to alleviate the conflict between water use and environmental deterioration. The social, economic, water quality and ecological benefits were respectively taken into account as the scheduling objectives and quantified according to economic models. River minimum ecological flows and reservoir water levels based on flood control were taken as key constraint conditions. Feasible search discrete differential dynamic programming (FS-DDDP was used to run the model. The proposed model was used in the upstream of the Nanpan River, to quantitatively evaluate the difference between optimal reoperation and routine operation. The results indicated that the reoperation could significantly increase the water quality benefit and have a minor effect on the benefits of power generation and irrigation under different hydrological years. The model can be readily adapted to other multi-reservoir systems for water resources management.

  12. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

    2013-04-01

    To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the

  13. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  14. Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels of skill...

  15. Developing local scenarios to nitrogen management using participatory planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piil, Kristoffer; Wiborg, Irene; Andersen, Peter Stubkjær

    2017-01-01

    and to increase productivity where this is possible. In this project, a participatory planning approach was tested in six local catchments in Denmark. In each catchment two workshops were held with broad representation of local stakeholders from local councils, municipal authorities, farmer councils and local...... to be taken into account when involving a community in participatory planning regarding nitrogen management. As part of a more targeted Danish regulation, a system of catchment officers is currently being established to aide in formulating mitigation strategies that are adapted to local needs and local...

  16. Adaptive Process Management in Highly Dynamic and Pervasive Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano de Leoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Process Management Systems (PMSs are currently more and more used as a supporting tool for cooperative processes in pervasive and highly dynamic situations, such as emergency situations, pervasive healthcare or domotics/home automation. But in all such situations, designed processes can be easily invalidated since the execution environment may change continuously due to frequent unforeseeable events. This paper aims at illustrating the theoretical framework and the concrete implementation of SmartPM, a PMS that features a set of sound and complete techniques to automatically cope with unplanned exceptions. PMS SmartPM is based on a general framework which adopts the Situation Calculus and Indigolog.

  17. Suspended-sediment transport and storage: A demonstration of acoustic methods in the evaluation of reservoir management strategies for a small water-supply reservoir in western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Cory A.; Richards, Rodney J.; Collins, Kent L.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and local stakeholder groups are evaluating reservoir-management strategies within Paonia Reservoir. This small reservoir fills to capacity each spring and requires approximately half of the snowmelt-runoff volume from its sediment-laden source waters, Muddy Creek. The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting high-resolution (15-minute data-recording interval) sediment monitoring to characterize incoming and outgoing sediment flux during reservoir operations at two sites on Muddy Creek. The high-resolution monitoring is being used to establish current rates of reservoir sedimentation, support USBR sediment transport and storage models, and assess the viability of water-storage recovery in Paonia Reservoir. These sites are equipped with in situ, single-frequency, side-looking acoustic Doppler current meters in conjunction with turbidity sensors to monitor sediment flux. This project serves as a demonstration of the capability of using surrogate techniques to predict suspended-sediment concentrations in small streams (less than 20 meters in width and 2 meters in depth). These two sites provide the ability to report near real-time suspended-sediment concentrations through the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) web interface and National Real-Time Water Quality websites (NRTWQ) to aid in reservoir operations and assessments.

  18. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, E D

    2005-01-01

    In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

  19. Stochastic Management of the Open Large Water Reservoir with Storage Function with Using a Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2016-10-01

    Described models are used random forecasting period of flow line with different length. The length is shorter than 1 year. Forecasting period of flow line is transformed to line of managing discharges with same length as forecast. Adaptive managing is used only first value of line of discharges. Stochastic management is worked with dispersion of controlling discharge value. Main advantage stochastic management is fun of possibilities. In article is described construction and evaluation of adaptive stochastic model base on genetic algorithm (classic optimization method). Model was used for stochastic management of open large water reservoir with storage function. Genetic algorithm is used as optimization algorithm. Forecasted inflow is given to model and controlling discharge value is computed by model for chosen probability of controlling discharge value. Model was tested and validated on made up large open water reservoir. Results of stochastic model were evaluated for given probability and were compared to results of same model for 100% forecast (forecasted values are real values). The management of the large open water reservoir with storage function was done logically and with increased sum number of forecast from 300 to 500 the results given by model were better, but another increased from 500 to 750 and 1000 did not get expected improvement. Influence on course of management was tested for different length forecasted inflow and their sum number. Classical optimization model is needed too much time for calculation, therefore stochastic model base on genetic algorithm was used parallel calculation on cluster.

  20. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine S. Jarnevich

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion

  1. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Frid, Leonardo; Olsson, Aaryn D.

    2015-01-01

    Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future. Investing the necessary funds upfront to control the invasion results in the most

  2. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  3. Using e-collaboration to improve management education: three scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Schlenker

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the potential impact of collaborative technologies in improving managementeducation. The first goal is to expose students to tools and practices that not only assist themwith their current studies, but also serve to reinforce individual and team competencies that canfacilitate their entry into the workforce. In their positions as future managers they will beexpected to not only be familiar with common business practices but also to understand theimplications of information technology for business; in this case with emphasis on tools andtechniques that can help businesses flourish in the networked economy. With an ever-increasingrecognition that e-learning tools are important for (re-training employees, these three scenariosoffer examples of how business schools might expand the boundaries of e-collaboration to helptheir students. These experiments have been conducted in management programs. In the first twoscenarios, students use collaborative platforms in some of their daily work. The third experimentis based on a student-centred design of a learning portal. Our experience reinforces a certainnumber of hypotheses influencing the impact of collaborative technologies in managementeducation. To begin with, information systems are often flawed mirrors of the managerial systemthat they are designed to represent. Secondly, the potential value of collaborative technologies isstrongly influenced by organizational contexts, both in and between the university and thebusiness community. Thirdly, the effectiveness of collaborative technologies depends to a largedegree upon the depth and coherence of learning objectives fixed for learning and work places.Finally, improving the effectiveness of collaborative technologies requires aligning the design oflearning environments with the corporate cultures and visions we are trying to reproduce.

  4. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  5. Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

    2017-12-01

    Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the

  6. Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Irkutsk (Russia) using a life cycle assessment-integrated waste management model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulokhonova, Alisa; Ulanova, Olga

    2013-05-01

    Continuous growth in the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) and increasing demands for their environmentally-friendly treatment are one of the main consequences of the growing social and economic development rate in modern society. Despite ecologically sustainable trends in waste management systems around the world, open dumps are still the main waste treatment option in Russia. This study aims to help the local municipality administration in Irkutsk (Russia) identify the most appropriate direction for current waste management and its optimization. Within this study four developed MSW management scenarios were assessed and compared with respect to their ecological, economic and social aspects using a life cycle-based integrated waste management model. The evaluation results of these scenarios show that the development of environmental sustainability and the reduction of social effects lead to an increase in handling of costs of waste. The best scenario, regarding both environmental and social aspects, is scenario four, which includes the separate collection and reprocessing of recyclables in combination with an aerobic mechanical-biological pre-treatment of the residual waste before landfilling. However, this scenario is 3.6 times more expensive than the existing system. The results of all assessed scenarios were further analyzed and recommendations were made to design integrated waste management solutions that are optimal not only from the ecological and social points of view, but which are also realistic within the given economic situation.

  7. Satellite power system (SPS) financial/management scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-10-01

    The problems of financing and managing a large-scale, lengthy SPS program reduce to the key questions of ownership and control. Ownership (that is, the sources of capital) may be governmental, corporate, or individual; control may be exercised by a government agency, a government-sanctioned monopoly, or a competitive corporation. Since the R and D phase and the commercial implementation phase of an SPS program are qualitatively very different with respect to length of time before return-on-investment, we have considered two general categories of SPS organizations: (1) organizations capable of carrying out a complete SPS program, from R and D through commercialization; (2) organizations capable of carrying out commercial implementation only. Six organizational models for carrying out the complete SPS program have been examined in some detail: 1) existing government agencies (DOE, NASA, etc.); 2) a new government agency, patterned after TVA; 3) a taxpayer stock corporation, a new concept; 4) a trust fund supported by energy taxes, patterned after the financing of the Interstate Highway System; 5) a federal agency financed by bonds, patterned after the Federal National Mortgage Association; and 6) the staging company, a new concept, already in the early stages of implementation as a private venture. Four additional organizational forms have been considered for commercial implementation of SPS: 7) a government-chartered monopoly, patterned after the Communications Satellite Corporation; 8) the consortium model, already widely used for large-scale projects; 9) the corporate socialism model, patterned after such developments as the transcontinental railroad; and 10) the universal capitalism model, a concept partially implemented in the 1976 legislation creating Employee Stock Ownership Plans. A number of qualitative criteria for comparative assessment of these alternatives have been developed.

  8. Learning to manage quality in a multiple reservoir system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper describes the role of participatory modelling and simulation as a way to provide a meaningful framework to enable actors to understand the interdependencies in peri-urban catchment management. A role-playing game, connecting the quantitative and qualitative dynamics of the resources with social interactions ...

  9. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...

  10. Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng

    2012-05-01

    This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

    2015-01-01

    average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

  12. Underground natural gas storage reservoir management: Phase 2. Final report, June 1, 1995--March 30, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, I.; Anthony, R.V.

    1996-12-31

    Gas storage operators are facing increased and more complex responsibilities for managing storage operations under Order 636 which requires unbundling of storage from other pipeline services. Low cost methods that improve the accuracy of inventory verification are needed to optimally manage this stored natural gas. Migration of injected gas out of the storage reservoir has not been well documented by industry. The first portion of this study addressed the scope of unaccounted for gas which may have been due to migration. The volume range was estimated from available databases and reported on an aggregate basis. Information on working gas, base gas, operating capacity, injection and withdrawal volumes, current and non-current revenues, gas losses, storage field demographics and reservoir types is contained among the FERC Form 2, EIA Form 191, AGA and FERC Jurisdictional databases. The key elements of this study show that gas migration can result if reservoir limits have not been properly identified, gas migration can occur in formation with extremely low permeability (0.001 md), horizontal wellbores can reduce gas migration losses and over-pressuring (unintentionally) storage reservoirs by reinjecting working gas over a shorter time period may increase gas migration effects.

  13. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; Lemay, Kate; Armour, Carol L

    2014-01-01

    To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists' confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way.

  14. Developing Policy Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Growth Management: A Delphi Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajida Perveen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In many parts of the world, a rapid urbanization process is taking place at an unprecedented scale, and its drastic impacts on societies and the environment are evident. To combat the externalities of such rapid, and to a degree uncontrolled, development, many cities around the globe introduced various urban growth management policies. However, policy making—to provide sustainable outcomes, while generating growth opportunities—has been a daunting task for urban administrators. To ease the task, scenario-based planning methods are introduced to produce alternative visions for managing urban growth in sustainable ways by incorporating various socio-environmental issues. However, even though modelling urban growth and associated impacts based on these scenarios have emerged to strengthen and quantify the future of urban policies and related planning actions, this process has a number of glitches. Major issues include the uncertainties associated with the selection of suitable methods to generate scenarios, identify indicators to be used to assess scenarios, evaluate scenarios to prioritize for policy formulation, and assess the impacts of policy scenarios. This paper aims to address the challenge of developing suitable policy scenarios for sustainable urban growth. As for the methodological approach, the study undertakes a thorough review of the literature and current practices, and conducts a two-round Delphi survey—involving experts from public, private and academic sectors specialized in the fields of urban planning, environmental planning, social planning, transportation modelling, and economic development. The expert driven policy scenarios are validated in a local context by comparing findings against the policy options as proposed in the South East Queensland Regional Plan 2017 (Australia. The findings offer valuable guidelines for planners, modellers, and policy makers in adopting suitable methods, indicators, and policy priorities

  15. NN-Based Implicit Stochastic Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Systems Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Sangiorgio

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-reservoir systems management is complex because of the uncertainty on future events and the variety of purposes, usually conflicting, of the involved actors. An efficient management of these systems can help improving resource allocation, preventing political crisis and reducing the conflicts between the stakeholders. Bellman stochastic dynamic programming (SDP is the most famous among the many proposed approaches to solve this optimal control problem. Unfortunately, SDP is affected by the curse of dimensionality: computational effort increases exponentially with the complexity of the considered system (i.e., number of reservoirs, and the problem rapidly becomes intractable. This paper proposes an implicit stochastic optimization approach for the solution of the reservoir management problem. The core idea is using extremely flexible functions, such as artificial neural networks (NN, for designing release rules which approximate the optimal policies obtained by an open-loop approach. These trained NNs can then be used to take decisions in real time. The approach thus requires a sufficiently long series of historical or synthetic inflows, and the definition of a compromise solution to be approximated. This work analyzes with particular emphasis the importance of the information which represents the input of the control laws, investigating the effects of different degrees of completeness. The methodology is applied to the Nile River basin considering the main management objectives (minimization of the irrigation water deficit and maximization of the hydropower production, but can be easily adopted also in other cases.

  16. Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

    2017-01-01

    The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

  17. Local Water Management of Small Reservoirs: Lessons from Two Case Studies in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilmy Sally

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Burkina Faso is actively pursuing the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM in its development plans. Several policy and institutional mechanisms have been put in place, including the adoption of a national IWRM action plan (PAGIRE and the establishment so far of 30 local water management committees (Comités Locaux de l’Eau, or CLE. The stated purpose of the CLE is to take responsibility for managing water at sub-basin level. The two case studies discussed in this paper illustrate gaps between the policy objective of promoting IWRM on the one hand, and the realities associated with its practical on-the-ground implementation on the other. A significant adjustment that occurred in practice is the fact that the two CLE studied have been set up as entities focused on reservoir management, whereas it is envisioned that a CLE would constitute a platform for sub-basin management. This reflects a concern to minimise conflict and optimally manage the country’s primary water resource and illustrates the type of pragmatic actions that have to be taken to make IWRM a reality. It is also observed that the local water management committees have not been able to satisfactorily address questions regarding access to, and allocation of, water, which are crucial for the satisfactory functioning of the reservoirs. Water resources in the reservoirs appear to be controlled by the dominant user. In order to correct this trend, measures to build mutual trust and confidence among water users 'condemned' to work together to manage their common resource are suggested, foremost of which is the need to collect and share reliable data. Awareness of power relationships among water user groups and building on functioning, already existing formal or informal arrangements for water sharing are key determinants for successful implementation of the water reform process underway.

  18. Effects of cattle and manure management on the nutrient economy of mixed farms in East Africa: A scenario study

    OpenAIRE

    Snijders, P.J.M.; Meer, van der, H.G.; Onduru, D.D.; Ebanyat, P.; Ergano, K.; Zake, J.Y.K.; Wouters, A.P.; Gachimbi, L.N.; Keulen, van, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores effects of animal and manure management in a dairy unit on the nutrient economy of crop-livestock farms in East Africa. For this purpose, 8 cattle management scenarios have been developed based on farming systems in Mbeere, Kenya (extensive), Wakiso, Uganda (semi-intensive) and Kibichoi, Kenya (intensive). Three baseline scenarios represent present-day cattle management; five improved scenarios use the same dairy breeds but have improved nutrition, using younger grass, mor...

  19. Long-term strategies for flood risk management: scenario definition and strategic alternative design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijn, de K.; Klijn, F.; McGahey, C.; Mens, M.; Wolfert, H.P.

    2008-01-01

    This report reviews some mainstream existing methods of scenario development and use, as well as experiences with the design and assessment of strategic alternatives for flood risk management. Next, a procedure and methods are proposed and discussed. Thirdly, the procedure and methods are tried on

  20. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  1. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, Bruno; De Vincenzo, Annamaria; Ferone, Claudio; Messina, Francesco; Colangelo, Francesco; Cioffi, Raffaele

    2014-07-31

    Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. ) represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  2. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Molino

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  3. UE Autonomous Cell Management in a High-Speed Scenario with Dual Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Michaelsen, Per-Henrik; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2016-01-01

    This study compares the amount of control signaling required by traditional network-controlled mobility management with the one required by user equipment autonomous cell management operations in a real-life highway scenario. The scenario is covered by macros and densely-deployed small cells....... Different strategies for preparing the small cells for autonomous operations are studied. Our results show that traditional dual connectivity requires an average of 4.9 messages, per user per second, to be exchanged between the user equipment and the network, and 11.6 messages between e-NodeBs. On the other...... hand, autonomous cell management operations considerably decrease the amount of signaling. The highest reductions can be achieved by preparing all cells in the highway, cutting the signaling overhead by 92% over the air, and 39% between e-NodeBs. Furthermore, the approach of applying a newly developed...

  4. Study of scenarios of long term management of low-activity long-life wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This document reports the study of scenarios for the management of different low-activity long-life radioactive wastes with reference to different French legal texts. After a presentation of the legal and technical context, the report presents different existing and projected storages (description and safety principles for the Cires and Aube centres and for the Cigeo project of deep geological storage centre). It addresses the various aspects of radiferous and graphite waste management on a long term: inventory, parcel, waste peculiarities, management scenarios, assessment of storage in SCR. It also addresses the case of other wastes such as bituminous coated wastes, those presenting a reinforced natural radioactivity or residues of uranium conversion processing. The last part presents the main orientations for the project

  5. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  6. Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Patrick Philbin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

  7. Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyushova Y.G.,

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

  8. Agricultural non-point source pollution management in a reservoir watershed based on ecological network analysis of soil nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wen; Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan

    2018-03-01

    The Miyun Reservoir plays a pivotal role in providing drinking water for the city of Beijing. In this research, ecological network analysis and scenario analysis were integrated to explore soil nitrogen cycling of chestnut and Chinese pine forests in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, as well as to seek favorable fertilization modes to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Ecological network analysis results showed that (1) the turnover time was 0.04 to 0.37 year in the NH 4 + compartment and were 15.78 to 138.36 years in the organic N compartment; (2) the Finn cycling index and the ratio of indirect to direct flow were 0.73 and 11.92 for the chestnut forest model, respectively. Those of the Chinese pine forest model were 0.88 and 29.23, respectively; and (3) in the chestnut forest model, NO 3 - accounted for 96% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by plant N (2%), NH 4 + (1%), and organic N (1%). In the Chinese pine forest, NH 4 + accounted for 56% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by organic N (34%) and NO 3 - (10%). Fertilization mode was identified as the main factor affecting soil N export. To minimize NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs while maintaining the current plant yield (i.e., 7.85e0 kg N/year), a fertilization mode of 162.50 kg N/year offered by manure should be adopted. Whereas, to achieve a maximum plant yield (i.e., 3.35e1 kg N/year) while reducing NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs, a fertilization mode of 325.00 kg N/year offered by manure should be utilized. This research is of wide suitability to support agricultural non-point source pollution management at the watershed scale.

  9. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Tamer; Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Armour, Carol L.

    Objective To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios) modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG) by three expert researchers. Results In seven of nine scenarios (78%), the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency) in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162) of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162) of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusions Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way. PMID:24644524

  10. Using scenarios to test the appropriateness of pharmacist prescribing in asthma management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna T

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the potential for community pharmacist prescribing in terms of usefulness, pharmacists’ confidence, and appropriateness, in the context of asthma management. Methods: Twenty community pharmacists were recruited using convenience sampling from a group of trained practitioners who had already delivered asthma services. These pharmacists were asked to complete a scenario-based questionnaire (9 scenarios modelled on information from real patients. Pharmacist interventions were independently reviewed and rated on their appropriateness according to the Respiratory Therapeutic Guidelines (TG by three expert researchers. Results: In seven of nine scenarios (78%, the most common prescribing intervention made by pharmacists agreed with TG recommendations. Although the prescribing intervention was appropriate in the majority of cases, the execution of such interventions was not in line with guidelines (i.e. dosage or frequency in the majority of scenarios. Due to this, only 47% (76/162 of the interventions overall were considered appropriate. However, pharmacists were deemed to be often following common clinical practice for asthma prescribing. Therefore 81% (132/162 of prescribing interventions were consistent with clinical practice, which is often not guideline driven, indicating a need for specific training in prescribing according to guidelines. Pharmacists reported that they were confident in making prescribing interventions and that this would be very useful in their management of the patients in the scenarios. Conclusion: Community pharmacists may be able to prescribe asthma medications appropriately to help achieve good outcomes for their patients. However, further training in the guidelines for prescribing are required if pharmacists are to support asthma management in this way.

  11. Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2010-09-27

    Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address.

  12. Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.

  13. Comparison of environmental performance for different waste management scenarios in East Africa: The case of Kampala City, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oyoo, R.; Leemans, R.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Poor waste flows management in East African cities has become an environmental and public health concerns to the city authorities and the general public. We assessed the environmental impacts of waste recycling in Kampala City, for four designed waste management scenarios, namely: (1) Scenario S1

  14. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  15. Mercury bioaccumulation in the food web of Three Gorges Reservoir (China): Tempo-spatial patterns and effect of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jun [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Zhou, Qiong, E-mail: hainan@mail.hzau.edu.cn [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Yuan, Gailing; He, Xugang [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Xie, Ping [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072 (China)

    2015-09-15

    Tempo-spatial patterns of mercury bioaccumulation and tropho-dynamics, and the potential for a reservoir effect were evaluated in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) from 2011 to 2012, using total mercury concentrations (THg) and stable isotopes (δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N) of food web components (seston, aquatic invertebrates and fish). Hg concentrations in aquatic invertebrates and fish indicated a significant temporal trend associated with regular seasonal water-level manipulation. This includes water level lowering to allow for storage of water during the wet season (summer); a decrease of water levels from September to June providing a setting for flood storage. Hg concentrations in organisms were the highest after flooding. Higher Hg concentrations in fish were observed at the location farthest from the dam. Hg concentrations in water and sediment were correlated. Compared with the reservoirs of United States and Canada, TGR had lower trophic magnification factors (0.046–0.066), that are explained primarily by organic carbon concentrations in sediment, and the effect of “growth dilution”. Based on comparison before and after the impoundment of TGR, THg concentration in biota did not display an obvious long-term reservoir effect due to (i) short time since inundation, (ii) regular water discharge associated with water-level regulation, and/or (iii) low organic matter content in the sediment. - Highlights: • Hg concentrations were measured in biota of the main stem of 3 Gorges Reservoir. • Fish Hg concentration post-flood period > pre-flood period > flood period. • Fish Hg concentrations were the highest farthest from the dam. • THg in fish 2 years after inundation were the same as before impoundment. • Low biomagnification was ascribed to low DOC content in the sediment.

  16. MODELING REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS WITH FUTURE CLIMATIC CHANGE INFLUENCE ACCOUNTING

    OpenAIRE

    Romanenko, Irina

    2008-01-01

    The methodology of construction of the alternative agricultural production scenarios at regional level includes profitability and feasibility analysis based on assessment the effect of global climate change on productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, cost efficiency of crop growing and cattle breeding. To propose links between economic adaptation to climate change and carbon (organic C) stock management in agricultural ecosystems for use in developing long-term adoption strate...

  17. Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

  18. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  19. Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristofferson, K.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

  20. Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of

  1. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping

  2. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  3. Evaluation of disposal, recycling and clearance scenarios for managing ARIES radwaste after plant decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Guebaly, L.

    2007-01-01

    The wealth of experience accumulated over the past 30-40 years of fusion power plant studies must be forged into a new strategy to reshape all aspects of handling the continual stream of radioactive materials during operation and after power plant decommissioning. With tighter environmental controls and the political difficulty of building new repositories worldwide, the disposal option could be replaced with more environmentally attractive scenarios, such as recycling and clearance. We applied the three scenarios to the most recent ARIES compact stellarator power plant. All ARIES-CS components qualify as Class A or C low-level waste, according to the US guidelines, and can potentially be recycled using conventional and advanced remote handling equipment. Approximately 80% of the total waste can be cleared for reuse within the nuclear industry or, preferably, released to the commercial market. This paper documents the recent developments in radwaste management of nuclear facilities and highlights the benefits and challenges of disposal, recycling and clearance

  4. Impact of water management practice scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marleni, N; Gray, S; Sharma, A; Burn, S; Muttil, N

    2015-03-15

    Due to frequent droughts and rapid population growth in urban areas, the adoption of practices to reduce the usage of fresh water is on the rise. Reduction in usage of fresh water can be achieved through various local water management practices (WMP) such as Water Demand Management (WDM) and use of alternative water sources such as Greywater Recycling (GR) and Rainwater Harvesting (RH). While the positive effects of WMPs have been widely acknowledged, the implementation of WMPs is also likely to lower the wastewater flow and increase the concentration of contaminants in sewage. These in turn can lead to increases in sewer problems such as odour and corrosion. This paper analyses impacts of various WMP scenarios on wastewater flow and contaminant load. The Urban Volume and Quality (UVQ) model was used to simulate wastewater flow and the associated wastewater contaminants from different WMP scenarios. The wastewater parameters investigated were those which influence odour and corrosion problems in sewerage networks due to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. These parameters are: chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate (NO3(-)), sulphate (SO4(2-)), sulphide (S(2-)) and iron (Fe) that were contributed by the households (not including the biochemical process in sewer pipe). The results will help to quantify the impact of WMP scenarios on odour and corrosion in sewerage pipe networks. Results show that the implementation of a combination of WDM and GR had highly increased the concentration of all selected contaminant that triggered the formation of hydrogen sulphide, namely COD, sulphate and sulphide. On the other hand, the RH scenario had the least increase in the concentration of the contaminants, except iron concentrations. The increase in iron concentrations is actually beneficial because it inhibits the formation of hydrogen sulphide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. SWOT data assimilation for operational reservoir management on the upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munier, S.; Polebistki, A.; Brown, C.; Belaud, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide two-dimensional maps of water elevation for rivers with width greater than 100 m globally. We describe a modeling framework and an automatic control algorithm that prescribe optimal releases from the Selingue dam in the Upper Niger River Basin, with the objective of understanding how SWOT data might be used to the benefit of operational water management. The modeling framework was used in a twin experiment to simulate the "true" system state and an ensemble of corrupted model states. Virtual SWOT observations of reservoir and river levels were assimilated into the model with a repeat cycle of 21 days. The updated state was used to initialize a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm that computed the optimal reservoir release that meets a minimum flow requirement 300 km downstream of the dam. The data assimilation results indicate that the model updates had a positive effect on estimates of both water level and discharge. The "persistence," which describes the duration of the assimilation effect, was clearly improved (greater than 21 days) by integrating a smoother into the assimilation procedure. We compared performances of the MPC with SWOT data assimilation to an open-loop MPC simulation. Results show that the data assimilation resulted in substantial improvements in the performances of the Selingue dam management with a greater ability to meet environmental requirements (the number of days the target is missed falls to zero) and a minimum volume of water released from the dam.

  6. Cloud computing and Reservoir project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beco, S.; Maraschini, A.; Pacini, F.; Biran, O.

    2009-01-01

    The support for complex services delivery is becoming a key point in current internet technology. Current trends in internet applications are characterized by on demand delivery of ever growing amounts of content. The future internet of services will have to deliver content intensive applications to users with quality of service and security guarantees. This paper describes the Reservoir project and the challenge of a reliable and effective delivery of services as utilities in a commercial scenario. It starts by analyzing the needs of a future infrastructure provider and introducing the key concept of a service oriented architecture that combines virtualisation-aware grid with grid-aware virtualisation, while being driven by business service management. This article will then focus on the benefits and the innovations derived from the Reservoir approach. Eventually, a high level view of Reservoir general architecture is illustrated.

  7. Mathematical and field analysis of longitudinal reservoir infill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, W. T.; Capart, H.

    2016-12-01

    In reservoirs, severe problems are caused by infilled sediment deposits. In long term, the sediment accumulation reduces the capacity of reservoir storage and flood control benefits. In the short term, the sediment deposits influence the intakes of water-supply and hydroelectricity generation. For the management of reservoir, it is important to understand the deposition process and then to predict the sedimentation in reservoir. To investigate the behaviors of sediment deposits, we propose a one-dimensional simplified theory derived by the Exner equation to predict the longitudinal sedimentation distribution in idealized reservoirs. The theory models the reservoir infill geomorphic actions for three scenarios: delta progradation, near-dam bottom deposition, and final infill. These yield three kinds of self-similar analytical solutions for the reservoir bed profiles, under different boundary conditions. Three analytical solutions are composed by error function, complementary error function, and imaginary error function, respectively. The theory is also computed by finite volume method to test the analytical solutions. The theoretical and numerical predictions are in good agreement with one-dimensional small-scale laboratory experiment. As the theory is simple to apply with analytical solutions and numerical computation, we propose some applications to simulate the long-profile evolution of field reservoirs and focus on the infill sediment deposit volume resulting the uplift of near-dam bottom elevation. These field reservoirs introduced here are Wushe Reservoir, Tsengwen Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir in Taiwan, Lago Dos Bocas in Puerto Rico, and Sakuma Dam in Japan.

  8. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  9. Effects of rainfall patterns on water quality in a stratified reservoir subject to eutrophication: Implications for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xuan; Huang, Tinglin; Ma, Weixing; Sun, Xin; Zhang, Haihan

    2015-07-15

    The seasonal variation of hydrological conditions caused by shifting rainfall patterns observed in recent years has significant effects on water quality. High-volume inflows following heavy rainfall events that significantly disturb stratification lead to increased dissolved oxygen (DO) at the bottom of the reservoir, inhibiting the release of nutrients from sediments and causing a rapid reduction of algal biomass in the reservoir. However, the duration and extent of these effects depend not only on the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events but also on the period of thermal stratification in the reservoir. The effects of heavy rainfall events on water quality during three typical stratification periods of the reservoir were systematically investigated using extensive field data. The continuous heavy rainfall that occurred in September 2011 (stratification began to diminish) completely mixed the reservoir and produced a high concentration of DO along with a low phytoplankton concentration throughout the reservoir until stratification occurred the following year. Conversely, several days were required for anoxic conditions (in the hypolimnion) and cyanobacterial blooms to reappear after the storm runoff that occurred during the stable period of stratification (August 2012). In addition, the heavy rainfall that occurred in May 2013 accelerated the formation of an anoxic zone at the bottom of the reservoir and promoted cyanobacterial blooms due to the high nutrient input and the increased water temperature after the storm runoff ended. Water-lifting aerators (WLAs) were employed in the Shibianyu Reservoir to inhibit algal growth and to control the release of nutrients. Based on our field observations and theoretical analyses, optimized management strategies are recommended to improve water quality in the reservoir under different rainfall patterns at a reduced cost. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1996--September 12, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-12

    At this time, eighteen (18) 10-acre infill wells have been drilled as part of the Field Demonstration phase of the project. Of the fourteen producing wells drilled to date, twelve are currently on production, and ten are pumped-off and producing at stable rates. Current Unit production is approximately 3,600-3,700 STBO/D, and approximately 850 STBO/D incremental production has been added to date. The remaining producing well and four injection wells are currently being completed. A change in the Statement of Work has been approved so that we can drill additional 10-acre infill wells during the next quarter as budget constraints allow. Production flowlines are laid for each new producing well as they are put on production. Injection lines are being laid for the injection wells as they are completed. All data required for the validation of the Budget Period I Reservoir Characterization, Reservoir Management, and Reservoir Simulation Studies are being acquired and analyzed during the Field Demonstration Period.

  11. Telecare and self-management: a guideline for anticipating future care in scenario-based design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Maathuis

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An important aim of telecare technologies for chronic patients is supporting self-management. Although patient involvement is crucial for successful implementation, any adaptation of telecare systems to needs of users requires explicit reflection regarding which form of self-management it should support. Scenario-based methods (SBDs are proposed to involve users in the earlier phases of development. This paper aims to extend SBDs by incorporating explicit exploration of self-management forms. We first analyzed what self-management forms were inscribed in the design of a telecare system for COPD patients. These were mainly based on compliance to medical treatment. However, our study shows that many patients thrive better on self- management based on cooperation and concordance with healthcare professionals. To overcome this discrepancy between design and use practices we developed a guideline enabling designers to anticipate and reflect on which form of self-management is desirable to incorporate in the design of telecare technologies for chronic patients.

  12. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rousis, K.; Moustakas, K.; Malamis, S.; Papadopoulos, A.; Loizidou, M.

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites

  13. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Reservoir fisheries of Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, S.S. De.

    1990-01-01

    At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop

  15. Hydrological services and biodiversity conservation under forestation scenarios: comparing options to improve watershed management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Gonçalves, João; Pradinho Honrado, João

    2015-04-01

    Humans rely on ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services, namely water supply and water damage mitigation, and promoting forests is a widely used management strategy for the provision of hydrological services. Therefore, it is important to model how forests will contribute for this provision, taking into account the environmental characteristics of each region, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns of societal demand. In addition, ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is one of the aims included in the European Union biodiversity strategy to 2020. On the other hand, forest management for hydrological services must consider possible trade-offs with other services provision, as well as with biodiversity conservation. Accurate modeling and mapping of both hydrological services and biodiversity conservation value is thus important to support spatial planning and land management options involving forests. The objectives of this study were: to analyze the provision and spatial dynamics of hydrological services under two forest cover change scenarios (oak and eucalyptus/pine) compared to the current shrubland-dominated landscape; and to evaluate their spatial trade-offs with biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed (250km2), in northwest Portugal, was used as case-study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services (water supply quantity, timing and quality; soil erosion and flood regulation), and was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments, nitrates and evapotranspiration. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions and field measurements. The maps for each service under the different scenarios were produced at the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) level. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert valuation applied to a land cover map. Statistical correlations between hydrological services provision

  16. Participatory geographic information systems for agricultural water management scenario development: A Tanzanian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinderby, Steve; Bruin, Annemarieke de; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Kongo, Victor; Barron, Jennie

    One of the keys to environmental management is to understand the impact and interaction of people with natural resources as a means to improve human welfare and the consequent environmental sustainability for future generations. In terms of water management one of the on-going challenges is to assess what impact interventions in agriculture, and in particularly different irrigation strategies, will have on livelihoods and water resources in the landscape. Whilst global and national policy provide the overall vision of desired outcomes for environmental management, agricultural development and water use strategies they are often presented with local challenges to embed these policies in the reality on the ground, with different stakeholder groups. The concept that government agencies, advocacy organizations, and private citizens should work together to identify mutually acceptable solutions to environmental and water resource issues is increasing in prominence. Participatory spatial engagement techniques linked to geographic information systems (commonly termed participatory GIS (PGIS)) offers one solution to facilitate such stakeholder dialogues in an efficient and consultative manner. In the context of agricultural water management multi-scale PGIS techniques have recently been piloted as part of the ‘Agricultural Water Management Solutions’ project to investigate the current use and dependencies of water by small-holder farmers a watershed in Tanzania. The piloted approach then developed PGIS scenarios describing the effects on livelihoods and water resources in the watershed when introducing different management technologies. These relatively rapid PGIS multi-scale methods show promise for assessing current and possible future agriculture water management technologies in terms of their bio-physical and socio-economic impacts at the watershed scale. The paper discusses the development of the methodology in the context of improved water management decision

  17. Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2012-01-01

    The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger

  18. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  19. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy K. Caves

    2013-09-01

    response to climate change, and (2 incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management actions, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with modifications, may help address the full range of complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

  20. Impact of sediments resuspension on metal solubilization and water quality during recurrent reservoir sluicing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frémion, Franck; Courtin-Nomade, Alexandra [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Bordas, François, E-mail: francois.bordas@unilim.fr [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Lenain, Jean-François [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Jugé, Philippe [CETU – ELMIS Ingénieries, Université François Rabelais, , 60 Rue du Plat d' Étain, 37000 Tours (France); Kestens, Tim [EDF – DPIH, Unité de Production Centre, 19 bis avenue de la Révolution, BP 406, 87012 Limoges Cedex (France); Mourier, Brice [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France)

    2016-08-15

    In dam contexts, sluicing operations can be performed to reestablish sediments continuity, as proposed by the EU Water Framework Directive, as well as to preserve the reservoirs' water storage capacity. Such management permits the rapid release of high quantities of reservoir sediments through the opening of dam bottom valves. This work aims to study the impact of such operation on the evolution of environmental physicochemical conditions notably changes in dissolved metallic elements concentrations (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) through field and laboratory investigations. Results were interpreted in terms of concentrations and fluxes, and compared with data collected on an annual basis regarding both suspended matter and metallic elements. The release of high quantities of sediments (4,500 tons dry weight in 24 h), with concentrations representing up to 300 times the inter-annual mean suspended sediments discharge, significantly modified water parameters, notably solid/liquid (S/L) ratio, pH and redox conditions. Despite the fact that they are mainly trapped in stable phases, a clear increase of the solubilized metals content was measured, representing up to 60 times the maximum values of current exploitation. This solubilization is related to desorption phenomena from sediments through changes in chemical equilibriums as highlighted by laboratory characterizations and experiments. These chemical modifications are mainly attributed to S/L ratio variations. Indeed, the low S/L ratios (≤ 1.3 g·L{sup −1}) measured in situ are typically the ones for which metals solubilization is the highest, as shown by laboratory experiments. Additional thermodynamic modeling highlighted that the decrease in pH measured during the operation favors the release of the free forms of metallic elements (Al and Cu), and decreases the OM complexation influence. These changes, either in term of physical conditions or speciation, increasing metals long term

  1. Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

    2004-01-01

    Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

  2. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  3. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  4. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios on the small island of Mauritius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajcoomar, Avinash; Ramjeawon, Toolseeram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to use the life cycle assessment tool to assess, from an environmental point of view, the different possible municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios for the island of Mauritius. The scenarios include landfilling with energy recovery (S1), incineration with energy recovery (S2), composting, incineration and landfilling (S3) and finally composting, recycling, incineration and landfilling (S4). The MSW generated in 2010 was selected as the functional unit. Foreground data were collected through surveys and literature. Background data were obtained from ecoinvent data in SimaPro 8 libraries. The scenarios were compared both through the CML-IA baseline-midpoint method and the ReCiPe end-point method. From the midpoint method, the results obtained indicates that landfilling (S1) has the greatest impact in all the analyzed impact categories except ozone layer depletion and human toxicity, while incineration (S2) has the least impact on almost all the analyzed damage categories except in global warming potential and human toxicity. The collection and transportation of waste has a significant impact on the environment. From the end-point method, S4 reduces the damage impact categories on Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources due to the recycling process. S3 is not favorable due to the impact caused by the composting process. However, it is also very important to emphasize that for incineration, the best available technology with energy recovery shall be considered. It is recommended that S2 and S4 are considered for strategic planning.

  5. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  6. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

    2009-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of

  7. On automatic data processing and well-test analysis in real-time reservoir management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Stig

    2011-06-15

    The use of pressure and rate sensors for continuous measurements in the oil and gas wells are becoming more common. This provides better and more measurements in real time that can be analyzed to optimize the extraction of oil and gas. An analysis which can provide valuable information on oil and gas production, is transient analysis. In transient analysis pressure build-up in a well when it closed in are analyzed and parameters that describe the flow of oil and gas in the reservoir is estimated. However, it is very time consuming to manage and analyze real-time data and the result is often that only a limited amount of the available data are analyzed. It is therefore desirable to have more effective methods to analyze real time data from oil and gas wells. Olsen automated transient analysis in order to extract the information of real-time data in an efficient and labor-saving manner. The analysis must be initialized with well and reservoir-specific data, but when this is done, the analysis is performed automatically each time the well is closed in. For each shut-in are parameters that describe the flow of oil and gas in the reservoir estimated. By repeated shut, it will then appear time series of estimated parameters. One of the goals of the automated transient analysis lights up is to detect any changes in these time series so that the focus of the engineers can aim on the analysis results that deviate from normal. As part of this work it was also necessary to develop automated data filters for noise removal and data compression. The filter is designed so that it continuously filters the data using methods that are optimized for use on the typical pressure and rate signals measured in the oil and gas wells. The thesis shows Olsen examples of the use of automated data filtering and automated transient analysis of both synthetic data and real data from a field in the North Sea. (AG)

  8. A Knowledge Management Scenario to Support Knowledge Applications Development in Small and Medium Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROSU, S. M.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the European countries more than 95% of the companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and majority of the European Union employees work in these companies. In order to develop intelligent business to become competitive, the enterprises must increase the quality and technologic level of products and services, to have permanent new product or to make old products bettering and to have a good prices policy. These activities request first a large amount of data, information and knowledge collected from all sources and then request transferring knowledge at each enterprise level. Therefore, this work analyses the state of art of the knowledge and knowledge management (KM and propose KM scenario to support knowledge applications (KApps development in SMEs. In addition, the paper presents how can be knowledge bases built at the enterprise level.

  9. G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

  10. Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-11-01

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

  11. Evaluation/Optimization of reservoir operation rules for flood management using an integrated hydrologic-hydraulic framework

    OpenAIRE

    Sordo Ward, Alvaro; Bianucci, Sandra Paola; Pérez Díaz, Juan Ignacio; García Palacios, Jaime; Cuevas Velasquez, Victor; Garrote de Marcos, Luis

    2011-01-01

    Se ha presentado la evaluación y optimización de las reglas de operación de un embalse para gestión de avenidas usando un entorno integrado hidrológico- hidráulico de tipo Monte Carlo. Some reservoirs play a major role in flood protection, managing the floods and reducing or delaying the peak discharges in the river downstream. However, the changing environment (natural and anthropological changes) requires the development of more elaborated strategies for reservoir operation. Three factors a...

  12. How Does Knowing Snowpack Distribution Help Model Calibration and Reservoir Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C. B.; Mazurkiewicz, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Well calibrated hydrologic models are a necessary tool for reservoir managers to meet increasingly complicated regulatory, environmental and consumptive demands on water supply systems. Achieving these objectives is difficult during periods of drought, such as seen in the Sierra Nevada in recent years. This emphasizes the importance of accurate watershed modeling and forecasting of runoff. While basin discharge has traditionally been the main criteria for model calibration, many studies have shown it to be a poor control on model calibration where correct understanding of the subbasin hydrologic processes are required. Additional data sources such as snowpack accumulation and melt are often required to create a reliable model calibration. When allocating resources for monitoring snowpack conditions, water system managers often must choose between monitoring point locations at high temporal resolution (i.e. real time weather and snow monitoring stations) and large spatial surveys (i.e. remote sensing). NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) provides a unique opportunity to test the relative value of spatially dense, temporally sparse measurements vs. temporally dense, spatially sparse measurements for hydrologic model calibration. The ASO is a demonstration mission using coupled LiDAR and imaging spectrometer mounted to an aircraft flying at 6100 m to collect high spatial density measurements of snow water content and albedo over the 1189 km2 Tuolumne River Basin. Snow depth and albedo were collected weekly throughout the snowmelt runoff period at 5 m2 resolution during the 2013-2014 snowmelt. We developed an implementation of the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, the primary water source for San Francisco. The modeled snow accumulation and ablation was calibrated in 2 models using either 2 years of weekly measurements of distributed snow water equivalent from the ASO, or 2 years of 15 minute snow

  13. Management Scenarios of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Their Impacts under Recent and Future Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Liersch

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Close to the border with Sudan, Ethiopia is currently building the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa with a storage volume corresponding to approximately 1.5 years of the mean discharges of the Blue Nile. This endeavor is controversially debated in the public and the scientific literature. Contributing to this discussion, by shading some light on climate change issues, an eco-hydrological model, equipped with a reservoir module, was applied to investigate downstream hydrological impacts during filling and regular operation, the latter considering climate change projected by an ensemble of 10 global and regional climate models. Our results show that at the earliest after 20 months, the dam could produce hydroelectric power. Full supply level may be reached after four years or not at all, depending on filling policies and assumptions of seepage rates. Under recent hydro-climatic conditions, the dam may produce 13 TWh − a , which is below the envisaged target of 15.7 TWh − a . The ensemble mean suggests slightly increasing hydropower production in the future. Almost independently of the operation rules, the highly variable discharge regime will be significantly altered to a regime with almost equal flows each month. Achieving a win-win situation for all riparian countries requires a high level of cooperation in managing the Eastern Nile water resources.

  14. Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William

    2010-01-01

    Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally

  15. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  16. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  17. Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

    2016-12-01

    Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

  18. The European forest sector: past and future carbon budget and fluxes under different management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli, Roberto; Grassi, Giacomo; Kurz, Werner A.; Fiorese, Giulia; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-05-01

    The comprehensive analysis of carbon stocks and fluxes of managed European forests is a prerequisite to quantify their role in biomass production and climate change mitigation. We applied the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to 26 European countries, parameterized with country information on the historical forest age structure, management practices, harvest regimes and the main natural disturbances. We modeled the C stocks for the five forest pools plus harvested wood products (HWPs) and the fluxes among these pools from 2000 to 2030. The aim is to quantify, using a consistent modeling framework for all 26 countries, the main C fluxes as affected by land-use changes, natural disturbances and forest management and to assess the impact of specific harvest and afforestation scenarios after 2012 on the mitigation potential of the EU forest sector. Substitution effects and the possible impacts of climate are not included in this analysis. Results show that for the historical period from 2000 to 2012 the net primary productivity (NPP) of the forest pools at the EU level is on average equal to 639 Tg C yr-1. The losses are dominated by heterotrophic respiration (409 Tg C yr-1) and removals (110 Tg C yr-1), with direct fire emissions being only 1 Tg C yr-1, leading to a net carbon stock change (i.e., sink) of 110 Tg C yr-1. Fellings also transferred 28 Tg C yr-1 of harvest residues from biomass to dead organic matter pools. The average annual net sector exchange (NSE) of the forest system, i.e., the carbon stock changes in the forest pools including HWP, equals a sink of 122 Tg C yr-1 (i.e., about 19 % of the NPP) for the historical period, and in 2030 it reaches 126, 101 and 151 Tg C yr-1, assuming constant, increasing (+20 %) and decreasing (-20 %) scenarios, respectively, of both harvest and afforestation rates compared to the historical period. Under the constant harvest rate scenario, our findings show an incipient aging process of the forests existing in 1990: although NPP

  19. Evaluation of Management of Water Release for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1984 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lere, Mark E. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1984-11-01

    control section and 82.3mm in the dewatered section. Population estimates conducted in the Spring, 1984 indicated densities of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) greater than 254 mm in total length were not significantly different between the control and dewatered sections (p > 0.20). Young of the year rainbow trout and brown trout per 10m of river edge electrofished during 1984 were more abundant in the control section than the dewatered section and were more abundant in side channel habitat than main channel habitat. Minimum flow recommendations obtained from wetted perimeter-discharge relationships averaged 8.5m{sup 3}/sec in the control section and 10.6m{sup 3}/sec in the dewatered section of the Bitterroot River. The quantity of supplemental water from Painted Rocks Reservoir needed to maintain minimum flow recommendations is discussed in the Draft Water Management Plan for the Proposed Purchase of Supplemental Water from Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana (Lere 1984).

  20. [Accidental ingestion of dental prostheses; 2 scenarios in the management and outcome. Case reports].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santander-Flores, Selene Artemisa; Mata-Quintero, Carlos Javier; O'Farrill-Anzures, Ricardo; González-Villegas, Paloma; Calvo-Vázquez, Iván; Campos-Serna, Esteban Israel

    Foreign body ingestion is the second cause of endoscopic emergency in the elderly, and dentures are the most frequent accidently ingested objects. Once in the stomach, their expulsion can be expected in 4 to 6 days. The treatment is wait and see in asymptomatic patients, but preventive endoscopic removal can also be performed. To present 2 scenarios of the outcome and treatment in patients with foreign body ingestion. Patient under study due to weight loss, with a denture detected by abdominal x-ray, ingested inadvertently a year ago. A laparotomy was required as extraction by colonoscopy failed, due to excessive inflammation. The second case, of 24-hour onset, was due to the ingestion of a partial denture. As duodenal endoscopy extraction was unsuccessful, the patient was kept under observation. When it did not pass the caecum, it was extracted by colonoscopy, with no further complications and shorter hospital stay. Follow-up can be by simple abdominal x-ray, with endoscopic management if there is insufficient progress. In one of our cases, the outcome was unfavourable due to time of ingestion, and endoscopic management was not possible, whereas in the second case colonoscopy was performed early with success. Proper diagnostic and timely treatment mark the difference in the progression and outcome of the ingestion of foreign bodies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  1. The Spread of Knowledge Management in SMEs: A Scenario in Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Cerchione

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with knowledge management (KM in small and medium enterprises (SMEs. Through a literature review, three research questions have been identified concerning the barriers hindering the spread of KM practices in SMEs, the main knowledge management systems (KMSs adopted by SMEs and the impact of the use of KM practices on SME performance. The research questions were subsequently addressed through a field analysis conducted on a sample of SMEs. The empirical evidence highlights that the scenario has changed in the space of but a few years. Although SMEs are generally characterized by poor financial and human resources, they are able to overcome the barriers preventing the spread of KM practices. The SMEs investigated perceive the strategic value of KM and consequently adopt a variety of KMSs. Nevertheless, such systems are generally outdated in comparison with cheaper, more recent, and user-friendly applications. Finally, the paper emphasizes that the use of KM practices can contribute to the overall growth of SMEs by simultaneously and significantly enhancing their performance.

  2. ENHANCING RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT IN THE APPALACHIAN BASIN BY IDENTIFYING TECHNICAL BARRIER AND PREFERRED PRACTICES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald R. McDowell; Khashayar Aminian; Katharine L. Avary; John M. Bocan; Michael Ed. Hohn; Douglas G. Patchen

    2003-09-01

    The Preferred Upstream Management Practices (PUMP) project, a two-year study sponsored by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), had three primary objectives: (1) the identification of problems, problematic issues, potential solutions and preferred practices related to oil production; (2) the creation of an Appalachian Regional Council to oversee and continue this investigation beyond the end of the project; and (3) the dissemination of investigative results to the widest possible audience, primarily by means of an interactive website. Investigation and identification of oil production problems and preferred management practices began with a Problem Identification Workshop in January of 2002. Three general issues were selected by participants for discussion: Data Management; Reservoir Engineering; and Drilling Practices. At the same meeting, the concept of the creation of an oversight organization to evaluate and disseminated preferred management practices (PMP's) after the end of the project was put forth and volunteers were solicited. In-depth interviews were arranged with oil producers to gain more insight into problems and potential solutions. Project members encountered considerable reticence on the part of interviewees when it came to revealing company-specific production problems or company-specific solutions. This was the case even though interviewees were assured that all responses would be held in confidence. Nevertheless, the following production issues were identified and ranked in order of decreasing importance: Water production including brine disposal; Management of production and business data; Oil field power costs; Paraffin accumulation; Production practices including cementing. An number of secondary issues were also noted: Problems associated with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and Waterflooding; Reservoir characterization; Employee availability, training, and safety; and Sale and Purchase problems. One item was mentioned both in

  3. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drillings. Annual technical progress report, June 13, 1996 to June 12, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nevans, Jerry W.; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill

    1999-04-27

    Infill drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, does not optimize reservoir development because it fails to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. New and emerging technologies, such as geostatistical modeling, rigorous decline curve analysis, reservoir rock typing, and special core analysis can be used to develop a 3-D simulation model for prediction of infill locations. Other technologies, such as inter-well injection tracers and magnetic flow conditioners, can also aid in the efficient evaluation and operation of both injection and producing wells. The purpose of this project was to demonstrate useful and cost effective methods of exploitation of the shallow shelf carbonate reservoirs of the Permian Basin located in West Texas.

  4. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Multiunit water resource systems management by decomposition, optimization and emulated evolution : a case study of seven water supply reservoirs in Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milutin, D.

    1998-01-01

    Being one of the essential elements of almost any water resource system, reservoirs are indispensable in our struggle to harness, utilize and manage natural water resources. Consequently, the derivation of appropriate reservoir operating strategies draws significant attention in water

  6. Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes

  7. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

  8. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  9. The Scenario Approach to the Development of Regional Waste Management Systems (Implementation Experience in the Regions of Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomin, Eugene P.; Alekseev, Audrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Dorozhkin, Vladimir E.

    2016-01-01

    The article illustrates a theoretical approach to scenario modeling of economic indicators of regional waste management system. The method includes a three-iterative algorithm that allows the executive authorities and investors to take a decision on logistics, bulk, technological and economic parameters of the formation of the regional long-term…

  10. Consequences of eutrophication in the management of water resources in Mediterranean reservoirs: A case study of Lake Cedrino (Sardinia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachisio Mario Padedda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary detrimental effects of eutrophication is the tendency of nuisance cyanobacterial species to increase in number and biomass in freshwater ecosystems. The aim of this study was to investigate possible management actions to control eutrophication and assure water use of a eutrophic deep Mediterranean climate reservoir, dominated by cyanobacteria. With this goal, we defined the trophic state of Lake Cedrino (Sardinia, Italy and studied its phytoplankton, paying particular attention to cyanobacteria, and to seasonal variation of phytoplankton in relation to seasonal variation of environmental variables. The water samples were collected monthly from September 2010 to August 2011 at differing depths from the surface of the water to the bottom at a station located in the deeper portion of the reservoir. Physical, chemical, nutrient, qualitative and quantitative analyses of phytoplankton were performed, and the trophic state was evaluated based on the Trophic State Index and the OECD model. Abundance of nutrients and phytoplankton (cell density, biomass and chlorophyll a indicated a eutrophic condition of the reservoir. In summer, phytoplankton species composition was dominated by nuisance cyanobacteria, particularly Aphanizomenon flosaquae, thereby requiring management plans for harmful blooms. On the base of lake features, we propose management actions at different scales and levels to resolve eutrophication and to allow water use: from nutrient load reduction in the watershed (primarily from point-sources to deep water aeration, to immediately face an attenuation of eutrophic effects. This study is the first explorative step in planning restoration of Lake Cedrino.

  11. New geomechanical developments for reservoir management; Desenvolvimentos experimentais e computacionais para analises geomecanicas de reservatorio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Antonio C.; Menezes Filho, Armando Prestes; Silvestre, Jose R. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2008-07-01

    The common assumption that oil is produced under a constant rate only considering reservoir depletion has been questioned for some time. An usual hypothesis is that the physical properties of a reservoir are not constants during time, but they vary according to the properties of reservoir rock and the characteristics of the external loads. More precisely, as soon as a reservoir is explored, the volume of fluid diminishes, decreasing the static pressure and increasing the effective stress over the rock skeleton, which, depending on the nature of rock, can lead to a gradual deformation and alteration of reservoir's porosity and permeability, and oil productivity as well. This paper aims at showing numerical and experimental achievements, developed by the Well bore Engineering Technology Department of CENPES, devoted to the characterization of the influence of stress-strain states on the permeability and production of reservoir rocks. It is believed that these developments can possibly bring some light to the understanding of this complex phenomenon, besides allowing the establishment of more realistic relations involving stress-strain-permeability in coupled fluid dynamic problems. (author)

  12. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  13. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  14. MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE SPORTS INJURIES AND MEDICAL CONDITIONS BY PHYSICAL THERAPISTS: ASSESSMENT VIA CASE SCENARIOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karges, Joy Renae; Salsbery, Mitchell A.; Smith, Danna; Stanley, Erica J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose/Background: Some physical therapists (PTs) provide services at sporting events, but there are limited studies investigating whether PTs are properly prepared to provide such services. The purpose of this study was to assess acute sports injury and medical condition management decision-making skills of PTs. Methods: A Web-based survey presented 17 case scenarios related to acute medical conditions and sport injuries. PTs from the Sports Physical Therapy Section of The American Physical Therapy Association were e-mailed a cover letter/Web link to the survey and invited to participate over a 30-day period. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results: A total of 411 of 5158 PTs who were members of the Sports Physical Therapy Association in 2009 and had valid e-mail addresses completed the survey, of which 389 (7.5%) were appropriate for analysis. Over 75.0% of respondents felt “prepared” or “somewhat prepared” to provide immediate care for 13 out of 16 medical conditions, with seizures, spinal cord injuries, and internal organ injuries having the lowest percentages. Over 75.0% of the respondents made “appropriate” or “overly cautious” decisions for 11 of the 17 acute injury or medical condition cases. Conclusions: Results of the current study indicate that PTs felt more “prepared” and tended to make “appropriate” return to play decisions on the acute sports injury and medical condition case studies more often than coaches who participated in a similar study, regardless of level of importance of the game or whether the athlete was a starter vs. non-starter. However, for PTs who plan on assisting at sporting events, additional preparation/education may be recommended, such as what is taught in an emergency responder course. PMID:21904695

  15. Competency in managing cardiac arrest: A scenario-based evaluation of dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Georg; Knipfer, Christian; Huber, Tobias; Huettl, Stephan; Shams, Nima; Knipfer, Kristin; Neukam, Friedrich Wilhelm; Schuettler, Juergen; Stelzle, Florian

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Cardiovascular Life Support (ACLS) in life-threatening situations is perceived as a basic skill for dental professionals. However, medical emergency training in dental schools is often not standardized. The dental students' knowledge transfer to an ACLS setting thus remains questionable. The aim of the study was to evaluate dental pre-doctorate students' practical competence in ACLS in a standardized manner to enable the curriculum to be adapted to meet their particular needs. Thirty dental students (age 25.47 ± 1.81; 16 male/14 female) in their last year of dental studies were randomly assigned to 15 teams. Students' ability to successfully manage ACLS was assessed by a scenario-based approach (training module: Laerdal® ALS Skillmaster). Competence was assessed by means of (a) an observation chart, (b) video analysis and (c) training module analysis (Laerdal HeartSim®4000; Version 1.4). The evaluation was conducted by a trained anesthesiologist with regard to the 2010 guidelines of the European Resuscitation Council (ERC). Only five teams (33.3%) checked for all three vital functions (response, breathing and circulation). All teams initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Only 54.12% of the compressions performed during CPR were sufficient. Four teams stopped the CPR after initiation. In total, 93% of the teams used the equipment for bag-valve-mask ventilation and 53.3% used the AED (Automated external defibrillator). ACLS training on a regular basis is necessary and, consistent with a close link between dentistry and medicine, should be a standardized part of the medical emergency curriculum for dental students with a specific focus on the deficiencies revealed in this study.

  16. Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

  17. Scoping Summary Report: Development of Lower Basin Shortage Guidelines and Coordinated Management Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Particularly Under Low Reservoir Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    2006-01-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) acting on behalf of the Secretary of the Department of the Interior (Secretary) proposes to take action to adopt specific Colorado River Lower Basin shortage guidelines and coordinated reservoir management strategies to address operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, particularly under low reservoir conditions. This proposed Action will provide a greater degree of certainty to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin by providing more d...

  18. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications

  19. Risk Management in the AIDS Scenario: Strategies Adopted by Men Who Have Sex with Men in Casual Partnerships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Moraes De Luiz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this study was on risk management strategies used in the aids scenario. For this purpose the chosen scenario was the sexual practices of men who have sex with other men in casual partnerships. Theoretically, the study was based on the notion of risky life styles in its interface with the health promotion framework. By means of a snowball strategy we located ten men who agreed to be interviewed. These interviews were analyzed using discourse analysis techniques. The results suggest that in all cases information about risk for infection by HIV/STD derived from a diversity of sources were used as repertoires for making sense of risks. The analysis led us to propose that information serves as a safety belt that allows risk taking within a certain margin of safety, even though within a scenario of uncertainty.

  20. Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

    2017-03-15

    Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  2. A resource management scenario for traditional and scientific management of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Gustavo Goulart Moreira; Kalikoski, Daniela Coswig; Diegues, Antonio Carlos Sant'Ana

    2013-01-11

    This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a "management scenario" for pink shrimp is possible through the development of "criteria for hierarchies of validity" which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of "management scenarios" and to support a co-management process.

  3. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is

  4. Fish community and fisheries management of Brno Reservoir following revitalisation measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurajda, Pavel; Adámek, Zdeněk; Valová, Zdenka; Janáč, Michal; Roche, Kevin Francis

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 2 (2015), s. 112-122 ISSN 0139-7893 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : biomanipulation * recreational reservoir * eutrophication Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.592, year: 2015

  5. Scenario of a dirty bomb in an urban environment and acute management of radiation poisoning and injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, F K C

    2007-10-01

    In the new security environment, there is a clear and present danger of terrorists using non-conventional weapons to inflict maximum psychological and economic damage on their targets. This article examines two scenarios of radiation contamination and injury, one accidental in nature leading to environmental contamination, and another of deliberate intent resulting in injury and death. This article also discusses the management of injury from radiological dispersion devices or dirty bombs, with emphasis on the immediate aftermath as well as strategy recommendations.

  6. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  7. Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Montiel Molina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.

  8. Evaluation of Management of Water Releases for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1983-1986, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spoon, Ronald L. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1987-06-01

    This study was initiated in July, 1983 to develop a water management plan for the release of water purchased from Painted Rocks Reservoir. Releases were designed to provide optimum benefits to the Bitterroot River fishery. Fisheries, habitat, and stream flow information was gathered to evaluate the effectiveness of these supplemental releases in improving trout populations in the Bitterroot River. The study was part of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program and was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration. This report presents data collected from 1983 through 1986.

  9. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  10. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action.

  11. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  12. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Managing Injected Water Composition To Improve Oil Recovery: A Case Study of North Sea Chalk Reservoirs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahid, Adeel; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2012-01-01

    imbibition, which has been applied in most of the previous studies. Two different flooding schemes (with and without aging) were used for flooding North Sea reservoir chalk samples. For comparison, two tests were also carried out with Stevns Klint core plugs. The flooding tests were carried out...... composition but also the formation water composition affected the oil recovery at high temperatures from the Stevns Klint chalk rock....

  15. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

  16. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo G; Kotwicki, Lech; Neset, Tina-Simone; Niiranen, Susa; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Savchuk, Oleg P; Schenk, Frederik; Węsławski, Jan Marcin; Zorita, Eduardo

    2014-02-01

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  18. Sudden water pollution accidents and reservoir emergency operations: impact analysis at Danjiangkou Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Hezhen; Lei, Xiaohui; Shang, Yizi; Duan, Yang; Kong, Lingzhong; Jiang, Yunzhong; Wang, Hao

    2018-03-01

    Danjiangkou Reservoir is the source reservoir of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRP). Any sudden water pollution accident in the reservoir would threaten the water supply of the MRP. We established a 3-D hydrodynamic and water quality model for the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and proposed scientific suggestions on the prevention and emergency management for sudden water pollution accidents based on simulated results. Simulations were performed on 20 hypothetical pollutant discharge locations and 3 assumed amounts, in order to model the effect of pollutant spreading under different reservoir operation types. The results showed that both the location and mass of pollution affected water quality; however, different reservoir operation types had little effect. Five joint regulation scenarios, which altered the hydrodynamic processes of water conveyance for the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams, were considered for controlling pollution dispersion. The results showed that the spread of a pollutant could be effectively controlled through the joint regulation of the two dams and that the collaborative operation of the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams is critical for ensuring the security of water quality along the MRP.

  19. Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Chiu W.

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10

  20. Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  1. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

    2010-11-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-01-01

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  3. Simulating long-term effectiveness and efficiency of management scenarios for an invasive grass

    OpenAIRE

    Catherine S. Jarnevich; Tracy R. Holcombe; Catherine Cullinane Thomas; Leonardo Frid; Aaryn Olsson

    2015-01-01

    Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficie...

  4. Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

    2017-07-15

    Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

    2016-01-01

    The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

  6. Telecare and self-management: a guideline for anticipating future care in scenario-based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maathuis, Ivo; Verdezoto, N; Nunes, F; Jones, Valerie M.; Fitzpatrick, G; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.; Erik Grönvall, E

    2015-01-01

    An important aim of telecare technologies for chronic patients is supporting self-management. Although patient involvement is crucial for successful implementation, any adaptation of telecare systems to needs of users requires explicit reflection regarding which form of self-management it should

  7. Implementation of behavioral health interventions in real world scenarios: Managing complex change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Khaya D; Miller, Benjamin F; Green, Larry A; de Gruy, Frank V; Davis, Melinda; Cohen, Deborah J

    2017-03-01

    A practice embarks on a radical reformulation of how care is designed and delivered when it decides to integrate medical and behavioral health care for its patients and success depends on managing complex change in a complex system. We examined the ways change is managed when integrating behavioral health and medical care. Observational cross-case comparative study of 19 primary care and community mental health practices. We collected mixed methods data through practice surveys, observation, and semistructured interviews. We analyzed data using a data-driven, emergent approach. The change management strategies that leadership employed to manage the changes of integrating behavioral health and medical care included: (a) advocating for a mission and vision focused on integrated care; (b) fostering collaboration, with a focus on population care and a team-based approaches; (c) attending to learning, which includes viewing the change process as continuous, and creating a culture that promoted reflection and continual improvement; (d) using data to manage change, and (e) developing approaches to finance integration. This paper reports the change management strategies employed by practice leaders making changes to integrate care, as observed by independent investigators. We offer an empirically based set of actionable recommendations that are relevant to a range of leaders (policymakers, medical directors) and practice members who wish to effectively manage the complex changes associated with integrated primary care. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Sustainable Supply Chain Management: The Influence of Disposal Scenarios on the Environmental Impact of a 2400 L Waste Container

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo Galve

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the influence of the supply chain management on the environmental impact of a 2400 L waste disposal container used in most cities of Spain. The studied functional unit, a waste disposal container, made up mostly of plastic materials and a metallic structure, and manufactured in Madrid (Spain, is distributed to several cities at an average distance of 392 km. A life cycle assessment of four different scenarios (SC has been calculated with the software EcoTool v4.0 (version 4.0; i+: Zaragoza, Spain, 2015 and using Ecoinvent v3.0 database (version 3.0; Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories: St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2013. The environmental impact has been characterized with two different methodologies, recipe and carbon footprint. In order to reduce the environmental impact, several end of life scenarios have been performed, analyzing the influence of the supply chain on a closed-looped system that increases recycling. Closed loop management of the waste and reuse of parts allows companies to stop selling products and start selling the service that their products give to the consumers.

  9. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Game theory and fuzzy programming approaches for bi-objective optimization of reservoir watershed management: a case study in Namazgah reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üçler, N; Engin, G Onkal; Köçken, H G; Öncel, M S

    2015-05-01

    In this study, game theory and fuzzy programming approaches were used to balance economic and environmental impacts in the Namazgah reservoir, Turkey. The main goals identified were to maximize economic benefits of land use and to protect water quality of reservoir and land resources. Total phosphorous load (kg ha(-1) year(-1)) and economic income (USD ha(-1) year(-1)) from land use were determined as environmental value and economic value, respectively. The surface area of existing land use types, which are grouped under 10 headings according to the investigations on the watershed area, and the constraint values for the watershed were calculated using aerial photos, master plans, and basin slope map. The results of fuzzy programming approach were found to be very close to the results of the game theory model. It was concluded that the amount of fertilizer used in the current situation presents a danger to the reservoir and, therefore, unnecessary fertilizer use should be prevented. Additionally, nuts, fruit, and vegetable cultivation, instead of wheat and corn cultivation, was found to be more suitable due to their high economic income and low total phosphorus (TP) load. Apart from agricultural activities, livestock farming should also be considered in the area as a second source of income. It is believed that the results obtained in this study will help decision makers to identify possible problems of the watershed.

  11. State-and-transition simulation modeling to compare outcomes of alternative management scenarios under two natural disturbance regimes in a forested landscape in northeastern Wisconsin, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Swearingen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Comparisons of the potential outcomes of multiple land management strategies and an understanding of the influence of potential increases in climate-related disturbances on these outcomes are essential for long term land management and conservation planning. To provide these insights, we developed an approach that uses collaborative scenario development and state-and-transition simulation modeling to provide land managers and conservation practitioners with a comparison of potential landscapes resulting from alternative management scenarios and climate conditions, and we have applied this approach in the Wild Rivers Legacy Forest (WRLF area in northeastern Wisconsin. Three management scenarios were developed with input from local land managers, scientists, and conservation practitioners: 1 continuation of current management, 2 expanded working forest conservation easements, and 3 cooperative ecological forestry. Scenarios were modeled under current climate with contemporary probabilities of natural disturbance and under increased probability of windthrow and wildfire that may result from climate change in this region. All scenarios were modeled for 100 years using the VDDT/TELSA modeling suite. Results showed that landscape composition and configuration were relatively similar among scenarios, and that management had a stronger effect than increased probability of windthrow and wildfire. These findings suggest that the scale of the landscape analysis used here and the lack of differences in predominant management strategies between ownerships in this region play significant roles in scenario outcomes. The approach used here does not rely on complex mechanistic modeling of uncertain dynamics and can therefore be used as starting point for planning and further analysis.

  12. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM

  13. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the

  14. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, Evgueni D

    2009-01-01

    The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). It considers the risk LP-models in classification, investment, management of companies, bribes and corruption, analysis of risk and efficiency of social and economical processes, and management of development. Key features of this Second Edition: -Five new chapters -Treatment of the basic principles of the modern risk LP theory (the LP-calculus, the LP-methods and the risk LP-theory with GIE) using uniform methodology and terminology with a practical orientation towards both engineering and economics, for the first time in book form -Clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index -More than a hundred illustrations a...

  15. Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S.K.; Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S.; Tyagi, R.D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. → Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace → Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO 2 eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO 2 eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to

  16. Sensemaking of real estate management using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change forces health organisations to deal more efficiently with real estate which makes flexibility more necessary. In order to support real estate managers in decision making in flexibility, we developed

  17. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oyoo, R.; Leemans, R.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2013-01-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows

  18. Night of the living color: horror scenarios in color management land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammens, Johan M.

    1998-12-01

    An ICC-based color management is becoming increasingly feasible and its picking up support from all the major high end design and pre-press applications as well as hardware manufacturers. In addition, the new sRGB standard is emerging as a way to effectively do 'color management for the masses', and is being supported by many leading manufacturers as well. While there certainly remain serious technical issues to address for both ICC and sRGB color management, it seems that the main problem users are facing today is how to integrate all components of their workflow into a seamless system, and how to configured each component to work well with all the others. This paper takes a brief look at the history of color management for a workflow perspective, and attempts to analyze how to compose and configured a quadruple color conversions can become a terrific nightmare. Some of the many ways to get the wrong results are briefly illustrated, as well as a few ways to get the right results. Finally, some technical recommendations are offered for how to improve the situation from a user point of view.

  19. The use of the SIWARE model package in water management scenario studies, Egypt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdel Gawad, S.T.; Abdel Khalek, M.A.; Smit, M.F.R.; Abdel Dayem, M.S.

    1995-01-01

    The SIWARE model package, which stands for Simulation of Water Management in the Arab Republic of Egypt, has been developed as a decision-support system for the Irrigation and Planning Sectors of the Egyptian Ministry of Public Works and Water Resources. The package was implemented within the

  20. Carbon sequestration in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under different scenarios of fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Scheller; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth L. Clark; John Hom; Inga. La Puma

    2011-01-01

    The New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) is the largest forested area along the northeastern coast of the United States. The NJPB are dominated by pine (Pinus spp.) and oak (Quercus spp.) stands that are fragmented and subject to frequent disturbance and forest management. Over long time periods (>50 years), the balance between oak...

  1. Simulating and evaluating best management practices for integrated landscape management scenarios in biofuel feedstock production: Evaluating Best Management Practices for Biofuel Feedstock Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Miae [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Wu, May [Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2015-09-08

    Sound crop and land management strategies can maintain land productivity and improve the environmental sustainability of agricultural crop and feedstock production. This study evaluates the improvement of water sustainability through an integrated landscaping management strategy, where landscaping design, land management operations, crop systems, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) play equal roles. The strategy was applied to the watershed of the South Fork Iowa River in Iowa, with a focus on implementing riparian buffers and converting low productivity land to provide cellulosic biomass while benefiting soil and water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the impact of integrated landscape design on nutrients, suspended sediments, and flow on the watershed and subbasin scales. First, the study evaluated the representation of buffer strip as a vegetative barrier and as a riparian buffer using trapping efficiency and area ratio methods in SWAT. For the riparian buffer, the area ratio method tends to be more conservative, especially in nitrate loadings, while the trapping efficiency method generates more optimistic results. The differences between the two methods increase with buffer width. The two methods may not be comparable for the field-scale vegetative barrier simulation because of limitations in model spatial resolution. Landscape scenarios were developed to quantify water quality under (1) current land use, (2) partial land conversion to switchgrass, and (3) riparian buffer implementation. Results show that when low productivity land (15.2% of total watershed land area) is converted to grow switchgrass, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nitrate loadings are reduced by 69.3%, 55.5%, 46.1%, and 13.4%, respectively, in the watershed surface streams. The reduction was less extensive when riparian buffer strips (30 m or 50 m) were applied to the stream network at 1.4% of total land area

  2. 75 FR 6257 - Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and Roane Counties, TN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    ... impacts that could occur. Comments expressed concerns about the importance of water quality and... recommended that a 100-foot-buffer strip of natural vegetation and ground cover be retained between the... management buffer zones of 50 feet are established on qualifying shoreline access approvals when TVA-managed...

  3. Integrated Approach to Drilling Project in Unconventional Reservoir Using Reservoir Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopa, Jerzy; Wiśniowski, Rafał; Wojnarowski, Paweł; Janiga, Damian; Skrzypaszek, Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Accumulation and flow mechanisms in unconventional reservoir are different compared to conventional. This requires a special approach of field management with drilling and stimulation treatments as major factor for further production. Integrated approach of unconventional reservoir production optimization assumes coupling drilling project with full scale reservoir simulation for determine best well placement, well length, fracturing treatment design and mid-length distance between wells. Full scale reservoir simulation model emulate a part of polish shale - gas field. The aim of this paper is to establish influence of technical factor for gas production from shale gas field. Due to low reservoir permeability, stimulation treatment should be direct towards maximizing the hydraulic contact. On the basis of production scenarios, 15 stages hydraulic fracturing allows boost gas production over 1.5 times compared to 8 stages. Due to the possible interference of the wells, it is necessary to determine the distance between the horizontal parts of the wells trajectories. In order to determine the distance between the wells allowing to maximize recovery factor of resources in the stimulated zone, a numerical algorithm based on a dynamic model was developed and implemented. Numerical testing and comparative study show that the most favourable arrangement assumes a minimum allowable distance between the wells. This is related to the volume ratio of the drainage zone to the total volume of the stimulated zone.

  4. An integrated fuzzy-based advanced eutrophication simulation model to develop the best management scenarios for a river basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Rallapalli; Singh, Ajit Pratap

    2018-03-01

    Assessment of water quality status of a river with respect to its discharge has become prerequisite to sustainable river basin management. The present paper develops an integrated model for simulating and evaluating strategies for water quality management in a river basin management by controlling point source pollutant loadings and operations of multi-purpose projects. Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP version 8.0) has been used for modeling the transport of pollutant loadings and their impact on water quality in the river. The study presents a novel approach of integrating fuzzy set theory with an "advanced eutrophication" model to simulate the transmission and distribution of several interrelated water quality variables and their bio-physiochemical processes in an effective manner in the Ganges river basin, India. After calibration, simulated values are compared with the observed values to validate the model's robustness. Fuzzy technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution (F-TOPSIS) has been used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the water quality simulation results. The model also simulates five different scenarios for pollution reduction, to determine the maximum pollutant loadings during monsoon and dry periods. The final results clearly indicate how modeled reduction in the rate of wastewater discharge has reduced impacts of pollutants in the downstream. Scenarios suggesting a river discharge rate of 1500 m 3 /s during the lean period, in addition to 25 and 50% reduction in the load rate, are found to be the most effective option to restore quality of river Ganges. Thus, the model serves as an important hydrologic tool to the policy makers by suggesting appropriate remediation action plans.

  5. Spatial analysis in recreation resource management for the Berlin Lake Reservoir Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwardo, H. A.; Koryak, M.; Miller, M. S.; Wilson, H.; Merry, C. J.

    1984-01-01

    Spatial analysis of geographic information systems and the acquisition and use of remotely-sensed data within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is an emerging Technology Work units have been developed under te Remote Sensing Research and Development Program, which are most relevant to the productive needs of the Corps in both the military and civil works missions. Corps participation in the SPOT simulation champaign is one such example of this research. This paper describes the application of spatial analysis and remote sensing in recreation resource managmaster planning at the Berlin Lake Reservoir Project within the Pittsburgh District. SPOT simulator data was acquired over Berlin Lake, Site No. 10, on July 8, 1983. The first part of this paper describes the background of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Berlin Lake project, the geographic information system being developed, and the planned use of SPOT and similar data. The remainder of the paper describes the results on an analysis of the simulated SPOT data conducted at the NASA Goddard Institut for Space Studies.

  6. Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.

  7. Role of exercise in the management of diabetes mellitus: the global scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zar Chi Thent

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. METHODS: Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms "type 2 diabetes mellitus," "type 2 DM," "exercise," and/or "physical activity," and "type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise." Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. RESULTS: Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%. Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. CONCLUSION: Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM.

  8. Role of exercise in the management of diabetes mellitus: the global scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thent, Zar Chi; Das, Srijit; Henry, Leonard Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Exercise training programs have emerged as a useful therapeutic regimen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Majority of the Western studies highlighted the effective role of exercise in T2DM. Therefore, the main aim was to focus on the extent, type of exercise and its clinical significance in T2DM in order to educate the clinicians from developing countries, especially in Asians. Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge and Google scholar were searched using the terms "type 2 diabetes mellitus," "type 2 DM," "exercise," and/or "physical activity," and "type 2 diabetes mellitus with exercise." Only clinical or human studies published in English language between 2000 and 2012 were included. Certain criteria were assigned to achieve appropriate results. Twenty five studies met the selected criteria. The majority of the studies were randomized controlled trial study design (65%). Most of the aerobic exercise based studies showed a beneficial effect in T2DM. Resistance exercise also proved to have positive effect on T2DM patients. Minimal studies related to other types of exercises such as yoga classes, joba riding and endurance-type exercise were found. On the other hand, United States of America (USA) showed strong interest of exercise management towards T2DM. Aerobic exercise is more common in clinical practice compared to resistance exercise in managing T2DM. Treatment of T2DM with exercise training showed promising role in USA. A large number of researches are mandatory in the developing countries for incorporating exercise in the effective management of T2DM.

  9. Waterproofing with polymeric geo synthetic barriers (GBR-P) in the manual for the design, construction, management and maintenance of reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanco, M.; Cea, J. C.; Garcia, F.; Sanchez, F. J.; Castillo, F.; Mora, J.; Crespo, M. A.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a part of Manual for the Design, Construction, Management and Maintenance of Reservoirs relative to waterproofing with Polymeric Geo synthetic Barriers (GBR-P). the nature materials of geo membranes is studied also theirs characteristics and specifications. (Author) 26 refs.

  10. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly technical progress report, September 13--December 12, 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The eighteen 10-acre infill wells which were drilled as part of the field demonstration portion of the project are all currently in service with no operational problems. These wells consist of fourteen producing wells and four injection wells. The producing wells are currently producing a total of approximately 450 bopd, down from a peak rate of 900 bopd. Unit production is currently averaging approximately 2,700 bopd, 12,000 bwpd and 18,000 bwipd. The paper describes progress on hydraulic fracture design, reservoir surveillance, data analysis procedures, and deterministic modeling and simulation.

  11. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie K; Christensen, Thomas H

    2018-04-01

    The current waste management system, handling around 500,000 t of household, commercial, and institutional waste annually in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, is based on landfilling in an old landfill with no controls of leachate and gas. Life-cycle assessment modelling of the current system shows that it is a major load on the environment, while the simulation of seven alternative systems results in large savings in many impact categories. With respect to climate change, it is estimated that a saving of about 1200 kg CO 2 equivalents is possible per year, per inhabitant, which is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The best alternatives involve efficient energy recovery from waste and recycling by source separation for commercial and institutional waste, the major waste type in the Irkutsk region. Recycling of household waste seems less attractive, and it is therefore recommended only to consider this option after experience has been gained with the commercial and institutional waste. Sensitivity analysis shows that recovery of energy - in particular electricity, heat, and steam - from waste is crucial to the environmental performance of the waste management system. This relates to the efficiencies of energy recovery as well as what the recovered energy substitutes, that is, the 'dirtier' the off-set energy, the higher the environmental savings for the waste management system. Since recovered energy may be utilised by only a few energy grids or industrial users, it is recommended to perform additional local assessments of the integration of the waste energy into existing systems and facilities.

  12. Applications of stable isotopes and radioisotopes in the exploration and reservoir management of Philippine geothermal fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, H.P.; Alvis-Isidro, R.R.

    1996-01-01

    The development of indigenous geothermal energy resources is currently one of the primary thrusts of the country's energy program. Presently, the Philippines has a total of geothermal generating capacity of about 1400 MWe. This comprises about 20% of the total energy mix and electricity requirements of the country. By 1998, an additional capacity of about 500 MWe will be commissioned, and the PHilippines would be generating 1900 MWe of electricity from geothermal energy resources. From 1990 to 1993, PNOC EDC (Philippine National Oil Company, Energy Development Corporation) has been granted a research contract by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Company has also been a recipient since 1991 of an IAEA Technical Assistance on the use of stable isotope techniques in geothermal hydrology. Stable isotopes, particularly 18 O and 2 H, in conjunction with other geochemical parameters and geological and geophysical data, have been used to: a) establish the local meteoric water line; b) determine the origin of geothermal fluids; c) delineate the elevation of recharge of geothermal and ground water systems; d) confirm pre-exploitation hydrochemical models; e) identify physical and chemical processes due to exploitation of the geothermal resource (i.e. reinjection fluid returns, incursion of cold meteoric water, boiling due to pressure drawdown and mixing with acidic steam condensates); and, f) estimate reservoir temperatures. Techniques using radioisotopes, such as 14 C, have also been used for the age-dating of charred wood samples collected from some of our geothermal exploration areas. The detection of 3 H has also been used as an indicator for the incursion of recent cold meteoric water into the geothermal system. Tracer studies using 131 I, have also been previously carried out, in coordination with the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute, to determine local hydrology and flow paths of reinjected water in some of our geothermal fields

  13. Ecological and Socio-Economic Modeling of Consequences of Biological Management Scenarios Implementation in Integrated Watershed Management (Case Study: Simindasht Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Keshtkar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Integrated watershed management is considered as a new principle for development planning and management of water and soil resources emphasizing on socio-economic characteristics of the region to sustainable livelihoods without vulnerability for plants and the residents of an area. This research, in line with the objectives of integrated management, has been carried out for modelling and evaluating the effects of ecological, socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of the proposed management plans on the vegetation changes with a focus on the problems in Simindasht catchment, located in Semnan and Tehran Provinces. After standardization of indices by distance method and weighing them, the scenarios were prioritized using multi-criteria decision-making technique. Trade-off analysis of the results indicates that in the integrated management of Simindasht catchment more than one single management solution, covering all aspects of the system can be recommended in different weighting approaches. The approach used herein, considering the results of different models and comparing the results, is an efficient tool to represent the watershed system as a whole and to facilitate decision making for integrated watershed management.

  14. Describing Geospatial Assets in the Web of Data: A Metadata Management Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano Fugazza

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Metadata management is an essential enabling factor for geospatial assets because discovery, retrieval, and actual usage of the latter are tightly bound to the quality of these descriptions. Unfortunately, the multi-faceted landscape of metadata formats, requirements, and conventions makes it difficult to identify editing tools that can be easily tailored to the specificities of a given project, workgroup, and Community of Practice. Our solution is a template-driven metadata editing tool that can be customised to any XML-based schema. Its output is constituted by standards-compliant metadata records that also have a semantics-aware counterpart eliciting novel exploitation techniques. Moreover, external data sources can easily be plugged in to provide autocompletion functionalities on the basis of the data structures made available on the Web of Data. Beside presenting the essentials on customisation of the editor by means of two use cases, we extend the methodology to the whole life cycle of geospatial metadata. We demonstrate the novel capabilities enabled by RDF-based metadata representation with respect to traditional metadata management in the geospatial domain.

  15. Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

    2015-06-01

    This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. The assessment of natural flood management measures as a climate change adaptation option through land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions an important additional adaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM) measures utilising natural soil, wetland and groundwater storage at the catchment scale to attenuate runoff generation and downstream flooding. Such schemes have multiple co-benefits including improved water quality, biodiversity and amenity and so contribute to greater resilience to uncertain climate futures. As a case-study of a more integrated approach to land use planning we here consider the policy target of the Scottish Government to expand woodland in Scotland by 100,000 ha by 2025 from the current 3 000 ha/year. In this paper we examine runoff response under different woodland expansion scenarios using climate projections obtained from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Woodland creation has recognised potential as a NFM measure, but locating this new planting is constrained by physical and cultural constraints. Land use choices in the future will also strongly reflect emergent socio-economic contexts, here assessed through scenario analysis. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis using the case-study of the Tarland catchment, a tributary of the River Dee. Terrain data were obtained on a 50 m grid and the model calibrated using meteorological and river gauge data from 2005 to 2007 following a manual and an automatic calibration process. This novel approach highlights that land use change should be carefully managed for planned benefits and to avoid unintended consequences, such as changing the timing of tributary flood responses. Whilst woodland expansion may only provide modest gains in flood reductions the co

  17. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries Climate change and water scarcity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vairavamoorthy, Kala; Gorantiwar, Sunil D.; Pathirana, Assela

    Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional 'supply based management' to a 'demand management' paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and

  18. Waste management in the Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia: An environmental assessment of alternative development scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starostina, Vlada; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksen, Marie Kampmann

    2018-01-01

    in greenhouse gas emissions. The best alternatives involve efficient energy recovery from waste and recycling by source separation for commercial and institutional waste, the major waste type in the Irkutsk region. Recycling of household waste seems less attractive, and it is therefore recommended only...... that it is a major load on the environment, while the simulation of seven alternative systems results in large savings in many impact categories. With respect to climate change, it is estimated that a saving of about 1200 kg CO2 equivalents is possible per year, per inhabitant, which is a significant reduction...... to consider this option after experience has been gained with the commercial and institutional waste. Sensitivity analysis shows that recovery of energy - in particular electricity, heat, and steam - from waste is crucial to the environmental performance of the waste management system. This relates...

  19. Constructing development and integrated coastal zone management in the conditions of the landslide slopes of Cheboksary water reservoir (Volga River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikonorova, I. V.

    2018-01-01

    Uncontrolled construction and insufficient accounting of engineering-geological and hydro-geological conditions of the coastal zone, intensified technogenic impact on sloping surfaces and active urbanization led to the emergence of serious problems and emergency situations on the coasts of many Volga reservoirs, including the Cheboksary reservoir, within Cheboksary urban district and adjacent territories of Chuvashia. This article is devoted to substantiation of the possibility of rational construction development of landslide slopes of the Cheboksary water reservoir.

  20. From Hydroclimatic Prediction to Negotiated and Risk Managed Water Allocation and Reservoir Operation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    The availability of long lead climate forecasts that can in turn inform streamflow, agricultural, ecological and municipal/industrial and energy demands provides an opportunity for innovations in water resources management that go beyond the current practices and paradigms. In a practical setting, managers seek to meet registered demands as well as they can. Pricing mechanisms to manage demand are rarely invoked. Drought restrictions and operations are implemented as needed, and pressures from special interest groups are sometimes accommodated through a variety of processes. In the academic literature, there is a notion that demand curves for different sectors could be established and used for "optimal management". However, the few attempts to implement such ideas have invariably failed as elicitation of demand elasticity and socio-political factors is imperfect at best. In this talk, I will focus on what is worth predicting and for whom and how operational risks for the water system can be securitized while providing a platform for priced and negotiated allocation of the resources in the presence of imperfect forecasts. The possibility of a national or regional market for water contracts as part of the framework is explored, and its potential benefits and pitfalls identified.

  1. Real-time reservoir geological model updating using the hybrid EnKF and geostatistical technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, H.; Chen, S.; Yang, D. [Regina Univ., SK (Canada). Petroleum Technology Research Centre

    2008-07-01

    Reservoir simulation plays an important role in modern reservoir management. Multiple geological models are needed in order to analyze the uncertainty of a given reservoir development scenario. Ideally, dynamic data should be incorporated into a reservoir geological model. This can be done by using history matching and tuning the model to match the past performance of reservoir history. This study proposed an assisted history matching technique to accelerate and improve the matching process. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique, which is an efficient assisted history matching method, was integrated with a conditional geostatistical simulation technique to dynamically update reservoir geological models. The updated models were constrained to dynamic data, such as reservoir pressure and fluid saturations, and approaches geologically realistic at each time step by using the EnKF technique. The new technique was successfully applied in a heterogeneous synthetic reservoir. The uncertainty of the reservoir characterization was significantly reduced. More accurate forecasts were obtained from the updated models. 3 refs., 2 figs.

  2. A synthesized mating pheromone component increases adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) trap capture in management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nicholas S.; Siefkes, Michael J.; Wagner, C. Michael; Dawson, Heather; Wang, Huiyong; Steeves, Todd; Twohey, Michael; Li, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    Application of chemical cues to manipulate adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) behavior is among the options considered for new sea lamprey control techniques in the Laurentian Great Lakes. A male mating pheromone component, 7a,12a,24-trihydroxy-3-one-5a-cholan-24-sulfate (3kPZS), lures ovulated female sea lamprey upstream into baited traps in experimental contexts with no odorant competition. A critical knowledge gap is whether this single pheromone component influences adult sea lamprey behavior in management contexts containing free-ranging sea lampreys. A solution of 3kPZS to reach a final in-stream concentration of 10-12 mol·L-1 was applied to eight Michigan streams at existing sea lamprey traps over 3 years, and catch rates were compared between paired 3kPZS-baited and unbaited traps. 3kPZS-baited traps captured significantly more sexually immature and mature sea lampreys, and overall yearly trapping efficiency within a stream averaged 10% higher during years when 3kPZS was applied. Video analysis of a trap funnel showed that the likelihood of sea lamprey trap entry after trap encounter was higher when the trap was 3kPZS baited. Our approach serves as a model for the development of similar control tools for sea lamprey and other aquatic invaders.

  3. Economic feasibility of stationary electrochemical storages for electric bill management applications: The Italian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telaretti, E.; Graditi, G.; Ippolito, M.G.; Zizzo, G.

    2016-01-01

    Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are expected to become a fundamental element of the electricity infrastructure, thanks to their ability to decouple generation and demand over time. BESSs can also be used to store electricity during low-price hours, when the demand is low, and to meet the demand during peak hours, thus leading to savings for the consumer. This work focuses on the economic viability of BESS from the point of view of the electricity customer. The analysis refers to a lithium-ion (Li-ion), an advanced lead-acid, a zinc-based, a sodium-sulphur (NaS) and a flow battery. The total investment and replacement costs are estimated in order to calculate the cumulated cash flow, the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) of the investment. A parametric analysis is further carried out under two different assumptions: a) varying the difference between high and low electricity prices, b) varying the peak demand charges. The analysis reveals that some electrochemical technologies are more suitable than others for electric bill management applications, and that a profit for the customer can be reached only with a significant difference between high and low electricity prices or when high peak demand charges are applied. - Highlights: •We examine the convenience of using BESS to reduce customer electricity bill. •We make a comparison among different types of batteries for end-user applications. •We evaluate the convenience of using storage in presence of demand charges. •A parametric analysis changing the BESS cost, electricity prices and demand charges has been carried out. •A case study is performed to show the advantages/disadvantages of this approach.

  4. Gravity observations for hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Glegola, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis the added value of gravity observations for hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring and characterization is investigated. Reservoir processes and reservoir types most suitable for gravimetric monitoring are identified. Major noise sources affecting time-lapse gravimetry are analyzed. The added value of gravity data for reservoir monitoring and characterization is analyzed within closed-loop reservoir management concept. Synthetic 2D and 3D numerical experiments are performed where var...

  5. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing...... on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  6. Manage Short-term Flood Events and Long-term Water Needs via Reservoir Operation: A Risk Analysis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, W.; Hsu, N.; Wei, C.; Cheng, W.

    2010-12-01

    This study proposes a methodology to assess the risk of the water shortage during a drought period and the risk of the downstream over-levee flows during a flood period based on the reservoir operation rules for flood control. These rules are defined by upper limits (or flood control storage zone).Through a Monte Carlo simulation, a series of hydrographs are generated to represent the reservoir inflow during a flood period based on historic typhoon events. This series of generated hydrographs are then applied to a reservoir flood operation simulation model. The simulation model calculates the water levels of reservoir at the end of a flood period and the reservoir release during the typhoon the events. Reservoir release is used to calculate the water level at downstream control locations for evaluation of a short-term over-levee risk. The ending water level of the reservoir is used as the initial condition for a water distribution optimization model that evaluates drought conditions for long-term water supply. By applying risk analysis, an assessment is made on the risk of both the water shortage during a drought and over-levee flows during flooding seasons. Based on the results of the risk analysis, we evaluate the relationship among upper-limit sets, shortage risk, and over-levee risk and also provide reservoir operation suggestions based on the risk evaluation.

  7. Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

    2011-12-01

    There is currently a distinct gap between what climate science can provide and information that is practically useful for (and needed by) natural resource managers. Improved understanding, and model representations, of interactions between the various climate drivers (both regional and global scale), combined with increased knowledge about the interactions between climate processes and hydrological processes at the regional scale, is necessary for improved attribution of climate change impacts, forecasting at a range of temporal scales and extreme event risk profiling (e.g., flood, drought, and bushfire). It is clear that the science has a long way to go in closing these research gaps; however, in the meantime water resource managers in the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere, require hydroclimatic projections (i.e., seasonal to multidecadal future scenarios) that are regionally specific and, importantly, take into account the impacts, and associated uncertainties, of both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change. The strengths and weaknesses of various approaches for supplying this information are discussed in this paper.

  8. Assessment of Spatial Interpolation Methods to Map the Bathymetry of an Amazonian Hydroelectric Reservoir to Aid in Decision Making for Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Curtarelli

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The generation of reliable information for improving the understanding of hydroelectric reservoir dynamics is fundamental for guiding decision-makers to implement best management practices. In this way, we assessed the performance of different interpolation algorithms to map the bathymetry of the Tucuruí hydroelectric reservoir, located in the Brazilian Amazon, as an aid to manage and operate Amazonian reservoirs. We evaluated three different deterministic and one geostatistical algorithms. The performance of the algorithms was assessed through cross-validation and Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, operational information was derived from the bathymetric grid with the best performance. The results showed that all interpolation methods were able to map important bathymetric features. The best performance was obtained with the geostatistical method (RMSE = 0.92 m. The information derived from the bathymetric map (e.g., the level-area and level-volume diagram and the three-dimensional grid will allow for optimization of operational monitoring of the Tucuruí hydroelectric reservoir as well as the development of three-dimensional modeling studies.

  9. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    By: Lansdowne Technologies Inc. 1001-247 Slater Street Ottawa ON, K1P 5H9 Contractor’s Document Number: Contract Project Manager : Peter Avis... management , focusing on eliciting a Whole of Government (WoG) response. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, it is not...capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé …..... Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat

  10. Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies.

  11. Advanced Oil Recovery Technologies for Improved Recovery from Slope Basin Clastic Reservoirs, Nash Draw Brushy Canyon Pool, Eddy County, NM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Mark B.

    1999-02-24

    The Nash Draw Brushy Canyon Pool in Eddy County New Mexico is a cost-shared field demonstration project in the US Department of Energy Class II Program. A major goal of the Class III Program is to stimulate the use of advanced technologies to increase ultimate recovery from slope-basin clastic reservoirs. Advanced characterization techniques are being used at the Nash Draw project to develop reservoir management strategies for optimizing oil recovery from this Delaware reservoir. Analysis, interpretation, and integration of recently acquired geologic, geophysical, and engineering data revealed that the initial reservoir characterization was too simplistic to capture the critical features of this complex formation. Contrary to the initial characterization, a new reservoir description evolved that provided sufficient detail regarding the complexity of the Brushy Canyon interval at Nash Draw. This new reservoir description is being used as a risk reduction tool to identify ''sweet spots'' for a development drilling program as well as to evaluate pressure maintenance strategies. The reservoir characterization, geological modeling, 3-D seismic interpretation, and simulation studies have provided a detailed model of the Brushy Canyon zones. This model was used to predict the success of different reservoir management scenarios and to aid in determining the most favorable combination of targeted drilling, pressure maintenance, well simulation, and well spacing to improve recovery from this reservoir.

  12. Tailoring dam structures to water quality predictions in new reservoir projects: assisting decision-making using numerical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcé, Rafael; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; García-Barcina, José Ma; Armengol, Joan

    2010-06-01

    Selection of reservoir location, the floodable basin forest handling, and the design of dam structures devoted to water supply (e.g. water outlets) constitute relevant features which strongly determine water quality and frequently demand management strategies to be adopted. Although these crucial aspects should be carefully examined during dam design before construction, currently the development of ad hoc limnological studies tailoring dam location and dam structures to the water quality characteristics expected in the future reservoir is not typical practice. In this study, we use numerical simulation to assist on the design of a new dam project in Spain with the aim of maximizing the quality of the water supplied by the future reservoir. First, we ran a well-known coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamic numerical model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) to simulate the potential development of anoxic layers in the future reservoir. Then, we generated several scenarios corresponding to different potential hydraulic conditions and outlet configurations. Second, we built a simplified numerical model to simulate the development of the hypolimnetic oxygen content during the maturation stage after the first reservoir filling, taking into consideration the degradation of the terrestrial organic matter flooded and the adoption of different forest handling scenarios. Results are discussed in terms of reservoir design and water quality management. The combination of hypolimnetic withdrawal from two deep outlets and the removal of all the valuable terrestrial vegetal biomass before flooding resulted in the best water quality scenario. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Impacts of future radiation management scenarios on terrestrial carbon dynamics simulated with fully coupled NorESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekici, Altug; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Muri, Helene

    2017-04-01

    We have simulated 3 different radiation management geoengineering methods (CCT - cirrus cloud thinning; SAI - stratospheric aerosol injection; MSB - marine sky brightening) on top of future RCP8.5 scenario with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A globally consistent cooling in both atmosphere and soil is observed with all methods. However, precipitation patterns are dependent on the used method. Globally CCT and MSB methods do not affect the vegetation carbon budget, while SAI leads to a loss compared to RCP8.5 simulations. Spatially the most sensitive region is the tropics. Here, the changes in vegetation carbon content are related to the precipitation changes. Increase in soil carbon is projected in all three methods, the biggest change seen in SAI method. Simulations with CCT method leads to twice as much soil carbon retention in the tropics compared to the MSB method. Our findings show that there are unforeseen regional consequences of such geoengineering methods in the biogeochemical cycles and they should be considered with care in future climate policies.

  14. Experiential virtual scenarios with real-time monitoring (interreality) for the management of psychological stress: a block randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaggioli, Andrea; Pallavicini, Federica; Morganti, Luca; Serino, Silvia; Scaratti, Chiara; Briguglio, Marilena; Crifaci, Giulia; Vetrano, Noemi; Giulintano, Annunziata; Bernava, Giuseppe; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Pioggia, Giovanni; Raspelli, Simona; Cipresso, Pietro; Vigna, Cinzia; Grassi, Alessandra; Baruffi, Margherita; Wiederhold, Brenda; Riva, Giuseppe

    2014-07-08

    The recent convergence between technology and medicine is offering innovative methods and tools for behavioral health care. Among these, an emerging approach is the use of virtual reality (VR) within exposure-based protocols for anxiety disorders, and in particular posttraumatic stress disorder. However, no systematically tested VR protocols are available for the management of psychological stress. Our goal was to evaluate the efficacy of a new technological paradigm, Interreality, for the management and prevention of psychological stress. The main feature of Interreality is a twofold link between the virtual and the real world achieved through experiential virtual scenarios (fully controlled by the therapist, used to learn coping skills and improve self-efficacy) with real-time monitoring and support (identifying critical situations and assessing clinical change) using advanced technologies (virtual worlds, wearable biosensors, and smartphones). The study was designed as a block randomized controlled trial involving 121 participants recruited from two different worker populations-teachers and nurses-that are highly exposed to psychological stress. Participants were a sample of teachers recruited in Milan (Block 1: n=61) and a sample of nurses recruited in Messina, Italy (Block 2: n=60). Participants within each block were randomly assigned to the (1) Experimental Group (EG): n=40; B1=20, B2=20, which received a 5-week treatment based on the Interreality paradigm; (2) Control Group (CG): n=42; B1=22, B2=20, which received a 5-week traditional stress management training based on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT); and (3) the Wait-List group (WL): n=39, B1=19, B2=20, which was reassessed and compared with the two other groups 5 weeks after the initial evaluation. Although both treatments were able to significantly reduce perceived stress better than WL, only EG participants reported a significant reduction (EG=12% vs. CG=0.5%) in chronic "trait" anxiety. A similar

  15. Make use of dynamic data - a constraint based EnKF for SAGD reservoir characterization and production management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gul, Ali; Nejadi, Siavash; Shah, Sirish L; Trivedi, Japan J [University of Alberta (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is a thermal recovery process widely used in the Athabasca oil sands, the largest bitumen reservoir in the world. In order to optimize the process, an accurate characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and identification of the potential steam barriers is necessary. The aim of this paper was to assess the potential of constraint based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach with localization to address these issues. Data records from observation, production and injection wells were used and the method was tested on a twin well SAGD process and a single well SAGD model with hybrid grids. Results showed a better characterization of the reservoir's heterogeneity and a reduction of uncertainty in the prediction of steam chamber growth. The technique developed herein provides accurate information about the steam chamber and the reservoir heterogeneity and can be used for planning and decision making of other field development strategies.

  16. Life in the slow lane; biogeochemistry of biodegraded petroleum containing reservoirs and implications for energy recovery and carbon management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Ian M.; Gray, Neil D.; Larter, Stephen R.

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the processes underlying the formation of heavy oil has been transformed in the last decade. The process was once thought to be driven by oxygen delivered to deep petroleum reservoirs by meteoric water. This paradigm has been replaced by a view that the process is anaerobic and frequently associated with methanogenic hydrocarbon degradation. The thermal history of a reservoir exerts a fundamental control on the occurrence of biodegraded petroleum, and microbial activity is focused at the base of the oil column in the oil water transition zone, that represents a hotspot in the petroleum reservoir biome. Here we present a synthesis of new and existing microbiological, geochemical, and biogeochemical data that expands our view of the processes that regulate deep life in petroleum reservoir ecosystems and highlights interactions of a range of biotic and abiotic factors that determine whether petroleum is likely to be biodegraded in situ, with important consequences for oil exploration and production. Specifically we propose that the salinity of reservoir formation waters exerts a key control on the occurrence of biodegraded heavy oil reservoirs and introduce the concept of palaeopickling. We also evaluate the interaction between temperature and salinity to explain the occurrence of non-degraded oil in reservoirs where the temperature has not reached the 80–90°C required for palaeopasteurization. In addition we evaluate several hypotheses that might explain the occurrence of organisms conventionally considered to be aerobic, in nominally anoxic petroleum reservoir habitats. Finally we discuss the role of microbial processes for energy recovery as we make the transition from fossil fuel reliance, and how these fit within the broader socioeconomic landscape of energy futures. PMID:25426105

  17. Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-04-01

    The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will

  18. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  19. Simulation and evaluation of pollution load reduction scenarios for water environmental management: a case study of inflow river of Taihu Lake, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-09-09

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of "Treatment after Pollution" has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives.

  20. Simulation and Evaluation of Pollution Load Reduction Scenarios for Water Environmental Management: A Case Study of Inflow River of Taihu Lake, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruibin; Qian, Xin; Zhu, Wenting; Gao, Hailong; Hu, Wei; Wang, Jinhua

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 21st century, the deterioration of water quality in Taihu Lake, China, has caused widespread concern. The primary source of pollution in Taihu Lake is river inflows. Effective pollution load reduction scenarios need to be implemented in these rivers in order to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake. It is important to select appropriate pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving particular goals. The aim of this study was to facilitate the selection of appropriate scenarios. The QUAL2K model for river water quality was used to simulate the effects of a range of pollution load reduction scenarios in the Wujin River, which is one of the major inflow rivers of Taihu Lake. The model was calibrated for the year 2010 and validated for the year 2011. Various pollution load reduction scenarios were assessed using an analytic hierarchy process, and increasing rates of evaluation indicators were predicted using the Delphi method. The results showed that control of pollution from the source is the optimal method for pollution prevention and control, and the method of “Treatment after Pollution” has bad environmental, social and ecological effects. The method applied in this study can assist for environmental managers to select suitable pollution load reduction scenarios for achieving various objectives. PMID:25207492

  1. Understanding the Role of Reservoir Size on Probable Maximum Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemichael, A. T.; Hossain, F.

    2011-12-01

    This study addresses the question 'Does surface area of an artificial reservoir matter in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for an impounded basin?' The motivation of the study was based on the notion that the stationarity assumption that is implicit in the PMP for dam design can be undermined in the post-dam era due to an enhancement of extreme precipitation patterns by an artificial reservoir. In addition, the study lays the foundation for use of regional atmospheric models as one way to perform life cycle assessment for planned or existing dams to formulate best management practices. The American River Watershed (ARW) with the Folsom dam at the confluence of the American River was selected as the study region and the Dec-Jan 1996-97 storm event was selected for the study period. The numerical atmospheric model used for the study was the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). First, the numerical modeling system, RAMS, was calibrated and validated with selected station and spatially interpolated precipitation data. Best combinations of parameterization schemes in RAMS were accordingly selected. Second, to mimic the standard method of PMP estimation by moisture maximization technique, relative humidity terms in the model were raised to 100% from ground up to the 500mb level. The obtained model-based maximum 72-hr precipitation values were named extreme precipitation (EP) as a distinction from the PMPs obtained by the standard methods. Third, six hypothetical reservoir size scenarios ranging from no-dam (all-dry) to the reservoir submerging half of basin were established to test the influence of reservoir size variation on EP. For the case of the ARW, our study clearly demonstrated that the assumption of stationarity that is implicit the traditional estimation of PMP can be rendered invalid to a large part due to the very presence of the artificial reservoir. Cloud tracking procedures performed on the basin also give indication of the

  2. Study of sustainable production in two-phase liquid dominated with steam cap underlying brine reservoir by numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, Heru Berian; Miryani Saptadji, Nenny

    2017-12-01

    The main issue in the management of the two-phase liquid-dominated geothermal field is rapid decline pressure in the reservoir so that the supply of steam to the power plant cannot be fulfilled. To understanding that, modelling and numerical simulation used reservoir simulators. The model is developed on liquid-dominated geothermal fields are assessed in various scenarios of production strategies (focusing only steam cap, brine reservoir and a combination) and injection strategies (deep and shallow injection, centered and dispersed injection), with the calculation using separated steam cycle method. The simulation results of the model for sustainable production are production 25% from steam cap + 75% from brine reservoir, dispersed and deep reinjection with make-up wells from steam cap results 9 make-up well number. The implementation of production-injection strategy needs to be planned right from the beginning of exploitation so that the strategy can adapt to changes in reservoir characteristics.

  3. On the use of Local Sea Level Scenarios for Managing and Mitigating the Impact of Coastal Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Hammond, W. C.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal inundation is increasingly recognized at national and international levels as an issue with potentially extreme societal impact. Consequently, there is an urgent need for decision-support tools that would help to manage and mitigate the impacts of coastal inundation, storm surges, and human activities on coastal communities and ecosystems. Decision making with respect to mitigation in the coastal zone is an extremely complicated issue for various reasons, including but not limited to: (i) The time scales involved are long from a human perspective, with coastal engineering typically dealing with infrastructure with a life time of 50 to 200 years. (ii) The economic scale of the problem is extreme: For example, the costs for increasing the height of the coastal dikes in Germany by 1 m are estimated to be of the order of 300 billion Euro; the flood gates being built in Venice are an estimated 5 billion Euro. The scale of the required investments is often seen as prohibitive for precautionary action without solid scientific basis, and failing to invest where needed may lead to large economic losses as demonstrated in New Orleans. (iii) Coastal zones are a magnet for human activities (one could say that society tends to put its "jewelry" in the coastal zone): the main increase in vulnerability in the coastal zone is not expected to come from increased hazards due to climate change but rather from increased risks due to continuing migration of population into the coastal zone and an associated increase in key infrastructure. Decisions on mitigation and adaptation in the coastal zone are likely to affect the life and prosperity of people in the future. Reliable and precise predictions of coastal inundation risks, for example through local sea level rise, would be invaluable for decision support. However, considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the processes that contribute to the hazards and risks in coastal zones over the 50 to 100 year time scale

  4. Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate

  5. National and global greenhouse gas dynamics of different forest management and wood use scenarios: a model-based assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Frank; Taverna, Ruedi; Hofer, Peter; Thuerig, Esther; Kaufmann, Edgar

    2010-01-01

    An increased use of wood products and an adequate management of forests can help to mitigate climate change. However, planning horizons and response time to changes in forest management are usually long and the respective GHG effects related to the use of wood depend on the availability of harvested wood. Therefore, an integral long-term strategic approach is required to formulate the most effective forest and wood management strategies for mitigating climate change. The greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics related to the production, use and disposal of wood products are manifold and show a complex time pattern. On the one hand, wood products can be considered as a carbon pool, as is the forest itself. On the other hand, an increased use of wood can lead to the substitution of usually more energy-intense materials and to the substitution of fossil fuels when the thermal energy of wood is recovered. Country-specific import/export flows of wood products and their alternative products as well as their processing stage have to be considered if substitution effects are assessed on a national basis. We present an integral model-based approach to evaluate the GHG impacts of various forest management and wood use scenarios. Our approach allows us to analyse the complex temporal and spatial patterns of GHG emissions and removals including trade-offs of different forest management and wood use strategies. This study shows that the contributions of the forestry and timber sector to mitigate climate change can be optimized with the following key recommendations: (1) the maximum possible, sustainable increment should be generated in the forest, taking into account biodiversity conservation as well as the long-term preservation of soil quality and growth performance; (2) this increment should be harvested continuously; (3) the harvested wood should be processed in accordance with the principle of cascade use, i.e. first be used as a material as long as possible, preferably in

  6. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  7. Reservoir Simulations of Low-Temperature Geothermal Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedre, Madhur Ganesh

    The eastern United States generally has lower temperature gradients than the western United States. However, West Virginia, in particular, has higher temperature gradients compared to other eastern states. A recent study at Southern Methodist University by Blackwell et al. has shown the presence of a hot spot in the eastern part of West Virginia with temperatures reaching 150°C at a depth of between 4.5 and 5 km. This thesis work examines similar reservoirs at a depth of around 5 km resembling the geology of West Virginia, USA. The temperature gradients used are in accordance with the SMU study. In order to assess the effects of geothermal reservoir conditions on the lifetime of a low-temperature geothermal system, a sensitivity analysis study was performed on following seven natural and human-controlled parameters within a geothermal reservoir: reservoir temperature, injection fluid temperature, injection flow rate, porosity, rock thermal conductivity, water loss (%) and well spacing. This sensitivity analysis is completed by using ‘One factor at a time method (OFAT)’ and ‘Plackett-Burman design’ methods. The data used for this study was obtained by carrying out the reservoir simulations using TOUGH2 simulator. The second part of this work is to create a database of thermal potential and time-dependant reservoir conditions for low-temperature geothermal reservoirs by studying a number of possible scenarios. Variations in the parameters identified in sensitivity analysis study are used to expand the scope of database. Main results include the thermal potential of reservoir, pressure and temperature profile of the reservoir over its operational life (30 years for this study), the plant capacity and required pumping power. The results of this database will help the supply curves calculations for low-temperature geothermal reservoirs in the United States, which is the long term goal of the work being done by the geothermal research group under Dr. Anderson at

  8. A reservoir management plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allis, R.G.

    1989-06-16

    There are numerous documented cases of extraction of fluids from the ground causing surface subsidence. The cases include groundwater, oil and gas, as well as geothermal fluid withdrawal. A recent comprehensive review of all types of man-induced land subsidence was published by the Geological Survey of America. At the early stages of a geothermal power development project it is standard practice in most countries for an environmental impact report to be required. The possibility of geothermal subsidence has to be addressed, and usually it falls on the geophysicists and/or geologists to make some predictions. The advice given is vital for planning the power plant location and the borefield pipe and drain layout. It is not so much the vertical settlement that occurs with subsidence but the accompanying horizontal ground strains that can do the most damage to any man-made structure.

  9. Effect of practice management softwares among physicians of developing countries with special reference to Indian scenario by Mixed Method Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev Davey

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Currently, many cheaper "practice management software" (PMS are available in developing countries including India; despite their availability and benefits, its penetration and usage vary from low to moderate level, justifying the importance of this study area. Materials and Methods : First preferred reporting items for systematic-review and meta-analysis (2009 guidelines were considered; followed by an extensive systematic-review of available studies in literature related to developing countries, on key search term from main abstracting databases: PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCO, BIO-MED Central, Cochrane Library, world CAT-library till 15 June 2014; where any kind of article whether published or unpublished, in any sort or form or any language indicating the software usage were included. Thereafter, meta-analysis on Indian studies revealing the magnitude of usage in Indian scenario by Open Meta-(analyst software using binary random effects (REs model was done. Studies from developed countries were excluded in our study. Results : Of 57 studies included in a systematic review from developing countries, only 4 Indian studies were found eligible for meta-analysis. RE model revealed although not-significant results (total participants = 243,526; range: 100-226,228, overall odds ratio = 2.85, 95% confidence interval = P < 0.05 and tests for heterogeneity: Q [df = 3] = 0.8 Het. P = 0.85. The overall magnitude of usage of PMS on Indian physicians practice was however found between 10% and 45%. Conclusion : Although variable and nonsignificant effect of usage of PM software on practice of physicians in developing countries like India was found; there is a need to recognize the hidden potential of this system. Hence, more in-depth research in future needs to be done, in order to find a real impact of this system.

  10. Climate variability and sedimentation of a hydropower reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, M.

    2008-01-01

    As part of the relicensing of a large Hydroelectric Project in the central Appalachians, large scale watershed and reservoir sedimentation models were developed to forecast potential sedimentation scenarios. The GIS based watershed model was spatially explicit and calibrated to long term observed data. Potential socio/economic development scenarios were used to construct future watershed land cover scenarios. Climatic variability and potential change analysis were used to identify future climate regimes and shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Permutations of these development and climate changes were forecasted over 50 years and used to develop sediment yield regimes to the project reservoir. Extensive field work and reservoir survey, including current and wave instrumentation, were used to characterize the project watershed, rivers and reservoir hydrodynamics. A fully 3 dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir sedimentation model was developed for the project and calibrated to observed data. Hydrologic and sedimentation results from watershed forecasting provided boundary conditions for reservoir inputs. The calibrated reservoir model was then used to forecast changes in reservoir sedimentation and storage capacity under different future climate scenarios. Results indicated unique zones of advancing sediment deltas and temporary storage areas. Forecasted changes in reservoir bathymetry and sedimentation patterns were also developed for the various climate change scenarios. The warmer and wetter scenario produced sedimentation impacts similar to extensive development under no climate change. The results of these analyses are being used to develop collaborative watershed and soil conservation partnerships to reduce future soil losses and reservoir sedimentation from projected development. (author)

  11. A CyberCIEGE Scenario To Illustrate Classified Information Management in Multilevel Secure Systems for Military Command and Control

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mum, Ng C

    2005-01-01

    .... This research developed a scenario definition file for the CyberCIEGE game engine to illustrate and train players on matters related to information protection using compartmentalized Mutlilevel Secure (MLS) systems...

  12. Modelling sediment export, retention and reservoir sedimentation in drylands with the WASA-SED model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. N. Mueller

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Current soil erosion and reservoir sedimentation modelling at the meso-scale is still faced with intrinsic problems with regard to open scaling questions, data demand, computational efficiency and deficient implementations of retention and re-mobilisation processes for the river and reservoir networks. To overcome some limitations of current modelling approaches, the semi-process-based, spatially semi-distributed modelling framework WASA-SED (Vers. 1 was developed for water and sediment transport in large dryland catchments. The WASA-SED model simulates the runoff and erosion processes at the hillslope scale, the transport and retention processes of suspended and bedload fluxes in the river reaches and the retention and remobilisation processes of sediments in reservoirs. The modelling tool enables the evaluation of management options both for sustainable land-use change scenarios to reduce erosion in the headwater catchments as well as adequate reservoir management options to lessen sedimentation in large reservoirs and reservoir networks. The model concept, its spatial discretisation scheme and the numerical components of the hillslope, river and reservoir processes are described and a model application for the meso-scale dryland catchment Isábena in the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees (445 km2 is presented to demonstrate the capabilities, strengths and limits of the model framework. The example application showed that the model was able to reproduce runoff and sediment transport dynamics of highly erodible headwater badlands, the transient storage of sediments in the dryland river system, the bed elevation changes of the 93 hm3 Barasona reservoir due to sedimentation as well as the life expectancy of the reservoir under different management options.

  13. Efficient Operation of a Multi-purpose Reservoir in Chile: Integration of Economic Water Value for Irrigation and Hydropower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, M. A.; Gonzalez Cabrera, J. M., Sr.; Moreno, R.

    2016-12-01

    Operation of hydropower reservoirs in Chile is prescribed by an Independent Power System Operator. This study proposes a methodology that integrates power grid operations planning with basin-scale multi-use reservoir operations planning. The aim is to efficiently manage a multi-purpose reservoir, in which hydroelectric generation is competing with other water uses, most notably irrigation. Hydropower and irrigation are competing water uses due to a seasonality mismatch. Currently, the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs with substantial power capacity is prescribed as the result of a grid-wide cost-minimization model which takes irrigation requirements as constraints. We propose advancing in the economic co-optimization of reservoir water use for irrigation and hydropower at the basin level, by explicitly introducing the economic value of water for irrigation represented by a demand function for irrigation water. The proposed methodology uses the solution of a long-term grid-wide operations planning model, a stochastic dual dynamic program (SDDP), to obtain the marginal benefit function for water use in hydropower. This marginal benefit corresponds to the energy price in the power grid as a function of the water availability in the reservoir and the hydrologic scenarios. This function allows capture technical and economic aspects to the operation of hydropower reservoir in the power grid and is generated with the dual variable of the power-balance constraint, the optimal reservoir operation and the hydrologic scenarios used in SDDP. The economic value of water for irrigation and hydropower are then integrated into a basin scale stochastic dynamic program, from which stored water value functions are derived. These value functions are then used to re-optimize reservoir operations under several inflow scenarios.

  14. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

  15. Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melvin Lippe

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC for a period of twenty years (2009–2029. The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and environmental management frameworks.

  16. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Increasing human pressures on the natural environment through the demand for increased agricultural productivity have exacerbated and deteriorated water quality conditions within many environments due to an unbalancing of the nutrient cycle. As a consequence, increased agricultural diffuse water pollution has resulted in elevated concentrations of nutrients within surface water and groundwater bodies. This deterioration in water quality has direct consequences for the health of aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, and the use of water as a resource for public water supply and recreation. To mitigate these potential impacts and to meet commitments under the EU Drinking Water and Water Framework Directives, there is a need to improve our understanding of the impacts that agricultural land use and management practices have on water quality. Water quality models are one of the tools available which can be used to facilitate this aim. These simplified representations of the physical environment allow a variety of changes to be simulated within a catchment, including for example changes in agricultural land use and management practices, allowing for predictions of the impacts of those measures on water quality to be developed and an assessment to be made of their effectiveness in improving conditions. The aim of this research is to apply the water quality model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Wensum catchment (area 650 km2), situated in the East of England, to predict the impacts of potential changes in land use and land management practices on water quality as part of a process to select those measures that in combination will have the greatest potential to improve water quality. Model calibration and validation is conducted at three sites within the catchment against observations of river discharge and nitrate and total phosphorus loads at a monthly time-step using the optimisation algorithm SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2

  17. 4. International reservoir characterization technical conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    This volume contains the Proceedings of the Fourth International Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference held March 2-4, 1997 in Houston, Texas. The theme for the conference was Advances in Reservoir Characterization for Effective Reservoir Management. On March 2, 1997, the DOE Class Workshop kicked off with tutorials by Dr. Steve Begg (BP Exploration) and Dr. Ganesh Thakur (Chevron). Tutorial presentations are not included in these Proceedings but may be available from the authors. The conference consisted of the following topics: data acquisition; reservoir modeling; scaling reservoir properties; and managing uncertainty. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology database.

  18. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  19. An environmental data base for all Hydro-Quebec reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demers, C.

    1988-01-01

    Hydro-Quebec has created two management positions specifically for reservoirs, namely Reservoir Ecology Advisor and Reservoir Management Advisor. To assist management decisions, a means was required of bringing together all existing environmental information for each reservoir operated by Hydro-Quebec, including storage reservoirs, auxiliary reservoirs and forebays. A relational database using Reflex software was developed on a network of Macintosh computers. The database contains five blocks of information: general information, and physical, physiochemical, biologic and socioeconomic characteristics for each reservoir. Data will be collected on over 100 sites, and the tool will form the basis for developing a medium-range study program on reservoir ecology. The program must take into account the physical, biological and socioeconomic aspects of the environment, as well as the concerns of management personnel operating the reservoirs, the local population, reservoir users, and various government departments. 2 figs

  20. Processes Affecting Phosphorus and Copper Concentrations and Their Relation to Algal Growth in Two Supply Reservoirs in the Lower Coastal Plain of Virginia, 2002-2003, and Implications for Alternative Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speiran, Gary K.; Simon, Nancy S.; Mood-Brown, Maria L.

    2007-01-01

    Elevated phosphorus concentrations commonly promote excessive growth of algae in waters nationwide. When such waters are used for public supply, the algae can plug filters during treatment and impart tastes and odors to the finished water. This increases treatment costs and results in finished water that may not be of the quality desired for public supply. Consequently, copper sulfate is routinely applied to many reservoirs to control algal growth but only is a 'temporary fix' and must be reapplied at intervals that can range from more than 30 days in the winter to less than 7 days in the summer. Because copper has a maximum allowable concentration in public drinking water and can be toxic to aquatic life, water suppliers commonly seek to develop alternative, long-term strategies for managing reservoirs. Because these are nationwide issues and part of the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to define and protect the quality of the Nation's water resources and better understand the physical, chemical, and biological processes in wetlands, lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries, investigations into these issues are important to the fulfillment of the mission of the USGS. The City of Newport News, Virginia, provides 50 million gallons per day of treated water for public supply from Lee Hall and Harwoods Mill Reservoirs (terminal reservoirs) to communities on the lower York-James Peninsula. About 3,500 pounds of copper sulfate are applied to each reservoir at 3- to 99-day intervals to control algal growth. Consequently, the USGS, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, investigated the effects of management practices and natural processes on phosphorus (the apparent growth-limiting nutrient), copper, and algal concentrations in the terminal reservoirs to provide information that can be used to develop alternative management strategies for the terminal reservoirs. Initial parts of the research evaluated circulation and stratification in the reservoirs

  1. Modelling the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality in a mediterranean limno-reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina-Navarro, Euginio; Trolle, Dennis; Martinez-Pérez, Silvia

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...

  2. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Economic Effects of Reservoir Re-operation Policy in the Rio Grande/Bravo for Sustainable Human and Environmental Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz Partida, J. P.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lane, B.

    2015-12-01

    A central challenge of integrated water management is the design and implementation of policies to allocate water to both humans and the environment in a sustainable manner. This study uses the results from a reach-scale water-planning model to quantify and compare the economic benefits of two water management policies: (1) a business as usual (Baseline) policy and (2) a proposed reservoir re-operation policy to provide environmental flows (EFs). Results show that the EF policy would increase water supply profit, slightly decrease recreational activities profit, and reduce costs from flood damage and environmental restoration compared to the Baseline policy. In addition to supporting ecological objectives, the proposed EF policy would increase the economic benefits of water management objectives.

  4. Analysis of transport logistics and routing requirements for radioactive waste management systems with respect to a minimum power scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, I.A.

    1984-10-01

    This report assesses the transport logistics associated with disposal of intermediate-level radioactive waste, as generated by CEGB, SSEB, UKAEA and BNFL, in accordance with a 'Minimum Power Scenario'. Transport by road and rail is analysed, as in previous reports; use of coastal shipping however has not been included but has been replaced with a combined road/rail option. (author)

  5. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  6. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  8. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Inc. Suite 1001, 275 Slater Street Ottawa, ON K1P 5H9 Contractor’s Document Number: Contract Project Manager : Peter Avis, 613-747-8121 PWGSC...for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des...2011-117; R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO; Juillet 2011. Introduction : Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des

  9. Modelling of Hydropower Reservoir Variables for Energy Generation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Efficient management of hydropower reservoir can only be realized when there is sufficient understanding of interactions existing between reservoir variables and energy generation. Reservoir inflow, storage, reservoir elevation, turbine release, net generating had, plant use coefficient, tail race level and evaporation losses ...

  10. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  11. Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassuy, D.

    2013-12-01

    The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

  12. How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    2015-01-01

    . In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered......, and (ii) to implement the suggested approach to spring barley cultivation in Denmark. First, the main implications of climate change for future crop cultivation are analyzed, and the factors which should be included when modeling the climate change effects on crops through LCA are introduced, namely...

  13. Challenges of reservoir properties and production history matching in a CHOPS reservoir study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alam, Mahbub [Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    In order to meet increasing world energy demand, wells have to be drilled within very thin reservoir beds. This paper, we present one of the solutions for optimizing the reservoir characterization. Reservoir characterization is the process between the discovery of a property and the reservoir management phase. Principal data for reservoir modeling are: 4D Seismic interpretation, wireline log interpretation, core analysis, and petrophysical analysis. Reservoir conditions, perforation and completion technology are the key issues to the production rate of cold production. Reservoir modeling intends to minimize the risk factor, maximize production, and help determine the location for infill drillings. Cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) is a method for enhancing primary production from heavy oil reservoirs. Gravitational forces, natural fluid pressure gradients and foamy oil flow phenomena are the major driving forces of the CHOPS mechanism. Finally, Reservoir characterization allows better understanding of permeability and porosity prediction.

  14. Decision support tools for urban contingency policy: a scenario approach to risk management of the Vesuvio area in Naples, Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Concilio, Grazia; Torrieri, Francesca

    2001-01-01

    Contingency management, in particular the management of unanticipated events outside the control of an ordinary planning system, has in the last 50years become an important andfrequently debated issue in the scientific literature on complex systems management underrisk conditions. The urban system

  15. A concept for planning and management of on-site and centralised municipal wastewater treatment systems, a case study in Bangkok, Thailand. II: scenario-based pollutant load analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuzuki, Yoshiaki; Koottatep, Thammarat; Sinsupan, Thitiphon; Jiawkok, Supattra; Wongburana, Chira; Wattanachira, Suraphong; Sarathai, Yuttachai

    2013-01-01

    Scenario-based pollutant load analysis was conducted to develop a part of a concept for planning and management of wastewater treatment systems (WWTSs) under the mixture conditions of centralised and on-site WWTSs. Pollutant discharge indicators and pollutant removal efficiency functions were applied from another paper in the series, which were developed based on the existing conditions in urban and peri-urban areas of Bangkok, Thailand. Two scenarios were developed to describe development directions of the mixture conditions. Scenario 1 involves keeping the on-site wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) within the areas of centralised WWTSs. Scenario 2 is dividing the centralised and on-site WWTS areas. Comparison of the smallest values of total pollutant discharge per capita (PDCtotal) between Scenarios 1 and 2 showed that the smallest PDCtotal in Scenario 1 was smaller than that in Scenario 2 for biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus whereas the smallest PDCtotal in Scenario 2 was smaller than that in Scenario 1 for total nitrogen, total coliforms and faecal coliforms. The results suggest that the mixture conditions could be a possible reason for smaller pollutant concentrations at centralised WWTPs. Quantitative scenario-based estimation of PDCtotal is useful and a prerequisite in planning and management of WWTSs.

  16. A holistic life cycle analysis of waste management scenarios at increasing source segregation intensity: the case of an Italian urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

    2014-11-01

    Life cycle analysis of several waste management scenarios for an Italian urban area was performed on the basis of different source segregation collection (SS) intensities from 0% up to 52%. Source segregated waste was recycled and or/recovered by composting. Residual waste management options were by landfilling, incineration with energy recovery or solid recovered fuel (SRF) production to substitute for coal. The increase in fuel and materials consumption due to increase in SS had negligible influence on the environmental impact of the system. Recycling operations such as incineration and SRF were always advantageous for impact reduction. There was lower impact for an SS of 52% even though the difference with the SS intensity of 35% was quite limited, about 15%. In all the configurations analyzed, the best environmental performance was achieved for the management system producing SRF by the biodrying process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...

  18. Distributed snow data as a tool to inform water management decisions: Using Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) at the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park, City and County of San Francisco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C. B.

    2016-12-01

    The timing and magnitude of spring snowmelt and runoff is critical in managing reservoirs in the Western United States. The Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park provides drinking water for 2.6 million customers in over 30 communities in the San Francisco Bay Area. Power generation from Hetch Hetchy meets the municipal load of the City and County of San Francisco. Water from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is also released in the Tuolumne River, supporting critical ecosystems in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest. Better predictions of long (seasonal) and short (weekly) term streamflow allow for more secure water resource planning, earlier power generation and ecologically beneficial releases from the Reservoir. Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is fed by snow dominated watersheds in the Sierra Mountains. Better knowledge of snowpack conditions allow for better predictions of inflows, both at the seasonal and at the weekly time scales. The ASO project has provided the managers of Hetch Hetchy Reservoir with high resolution estimates of total snowpack and snowpack distribution in the 460 mi2 Hetch Hetchy. We show that there is a tight correlation between snowpack estimates and future streamflow, allowing earlier, more confident operational decisions. We also show how distributed SWE estimates were used to develop and test a hydrologic model of the system (PRMS). This model, calibrated directly to snowpack conditions, is shown to correctly simulate snowpack volume and distribution, as well as streamflow patterns.

  19. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  20. The Role of Stress-test Scenarios in Risk Management Activities and in the Avoidance of a New Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arion NEGRILĂ

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Stress-tests can increase the endurance of banks and financial system when faced with crises especially during economic growth periods, when they may accept higher risks more easily and with lower prices. Their importance was revealed by the crisis which has proven to be much more severe in terms of amplitude than the worst scenarios used by banks.The case study presented assessed the impact that the deterioration of the main macroeconomic indicators might have upon a bank’s exposure to credit, FX, liquidity, interest, operational and market risks, upon its capital requirements, provisions and the balance sheet.

  1. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    survivability issues. Our findings indicate that packaging represents the most significant technical challenge associated with application of sensors in the downhole environment for long periods (5+ years) of time. These issues are described in detail within the report. The impact of successful reservoir monitoring programs and coincident improved reservoir management is measured by the production of additional oil and gas volumes from existing reservoirs, revitalization of nearly depleted reservoirs, possible re-establishment of already abandoned reservoirs, and improved economics for all cases. Smart Well monitoring provides the means to understand how a reservoir process is developing and to provide active reservoir management. At the same time it also provides data for developing high-fidelity simulation models. This work has been a joint effort with Sandia National Laboratories and UT-Austin's Bureau of Economic Geology, Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, and the Institute of Computational and Engineering Mathematics.

  2. Comparison of scenarios for the integrated management of construction and demolition waste by life cycle assessment: A case study in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteado, Carmenlucia Santos Giordano; Rosado, Laís Peixoto

    2016-10-01

    Brazil, as a result of economic development and strengthening of the construction industry in recent years, is generating an increasing amount of construction and demolition waste (CDW). Hence, environmental assessment of the management systems is vital. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented of CDW management in a medium-sized municipality located in the southeast region of Brazil, where the impacts of leaching were not considered due to absence of consistent data. Six different proposed scenarios for the current CDW management situation have been considered. These scenarios comprised the combined use of landfilling, sorting, and recycling, and the use of CDW as paving material for landfill roads, in different percentages. Considering 0.8 ton of waste as the functional unit, the life cycle inventory was performed using primary data obtained from field survey and secondary data from the database Ecoinvent version 3.1, and from the literature. The method CML 2 baseline 2001 was used for environmental impacts evaluation. The results highlight that recycling is beneficial when efficient CDW sorting takes place at construction sites, avoiding the transport of refuse to sorting and recycling facilities, and the distance between the generation source and the recycling unit is within 30 km. Thus, our results are helpful to ensure that the decision-making processes are based on environmental and technical aspects, and not only on economic and political factors, and also provide data and support for other LCA studies on CDW. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. Modelling the impact of rural land use scenarios on water management: a FREEWAT approach to the Bakumivka catchment case study, Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykhailo Grodzynskyi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Bakumivka River’s catchment, Ukraine serves as a case study to the application of FREEWAT to the ground and surface water management. The main objective of the study is to find out the optimal spatial distribution of the water supplied to the farms by modifying the land cover pattern of the catchment. An integrated numerical model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of the water budget components. The model includes four model layers, representing the main hydrostratigraphic units, different types of boundary conditions assigned along the area’s boundaries, major components of the water balance introduced through source and sink layers. It was implemented through the FREEWAT software. Three water management scenarios were developed in order to compare different spatial patterns of land cover and distribution of water within the Bakumivka River’s basin. The scenarios represent continuum from market oriented pattern to environmentally sounding pattern of land cover. The objective of the modeling exercise is to obtain mass balances and maps representing three scenarios of water management. Each map shows distribution of the areas where the water balance is optimal, insufficient (dry or excessive (wet for vegetation (land cover of particular type.The simulation shows that changing spatial land cover pattern is an effective measure to reduce water supply to the farms, however it does not prevent water logging in the areas adjacent to the flood plains and drying on summer stress periods in lands of sandyloam soils. Irrigation should be excluded in the areas with sandy and sandyloam soils. The flood plain with peat bogs despite the high water head in spring and late summer stress periods should be irrigated to prevent peat fires. The intrusion of eco-corridors to the land cover pattern in the catchment is positive from ecological perspective, but could prevent drainage causing water logging in the arable lands.

  4. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

  5. Extreme Climatic Events Modelling and Economic Impacts Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: a Risk Management Application to the Rural Sector in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.; Ghil, M.

    2013-05-01

    An increasing body of literature has shown the increase of frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation events across the world. Several economic systems and networks present high levels of vulnerability to weather variability and extreme weather events. This research proposes a methodological framework to characterize the cascading climate-to-economy risk profiles of economic systems to weather variability in different global warming scenarios. A weather-index and machine learning-based approach is introduced to encode and characterize the studied systems vulnerability to weather variability. The latter is enclosed in a "weather-within-climate" stochastic downscaling approach in order to characterize the interaction of low and high frequency climate variability and project risk profiles into future climate scenarios. The probabilistic weather-driven physical loss risk profiles are finally used to model supply shock-driven economic direct and indirect economic losses in the studied region or country. Given the acute vulnerability of the rural population to weather variability and global warming, this probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology is applied to the study the risk profile of weather-driven loss in the rural sector in a developing country, China. Province-level weather-to-economy risk profiles results of weather-driven staple crops loss under different technological and climate scenarios are presented. Implications for the design of risk management policy mixes are finally discussed.

  6. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

  7. Integrated modeling of water supply and demand under management options and climate change scenarios in Chifeng City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian

    2015-01-01

    Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...

  8. Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

    2013-01-01

    This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

    2013-04-01

    state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

  10. Moderate biomanipulation for eutrophication control in reservoirs using fish captured in angling competitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaral S.D.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Angling competitions are a popular leisure activity in reservoirs of Southern Portugal. These competitions can gather more than 100 anglers aiming to catch the maximum fish weight. Groundbaiting and catch-and-release angling are two common practices for anglers in competition. In this study, the loads of nutrients from commercial groundbait powders used in angling competitions in the Maranhão reservoir and the possible balance out of those nutrients through a moderate biomanipulation of the fish biomass caught in competitions were analysed. In order to achieve this aim, chemical analyses to groundbait powders most purchased by Portuguese anglers and to fish species most captured in competitions were made. Mass balances on inputs and outputs of nutrients considering some biomanipulation scenarios were evaluated. Results demonstrated that an effective management on angling competitions implementing a moderate biomanipulation of fish in reservoirs could promote the control of fish fauna and eutrophication, balancing out nutrients from angling.

  11. Climate and Management of the Colorado River: What Does the SSD Study Tell Us About Scenario Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, D. S.

    2007-12-01

    The "Severe Sustained Drought in the Southwestern US" (SSD) research project conducted between 1989-1994 focused on the likely size and distribution of water shortages in the Colorado River Basin should the most severe, long-term drought found in the tree-ring record reoccur in the modern era. The research approach, generally, was to (a) utilize tree-ring studies to reconstruct prehistoric flows, (b) select the drought from this record that was most likely to catastrophically stress the system, (c) estimate future water demand in the basin, (d) utilize institutional studies and water system modeling to identify the timing, location and magnitude of likely water shortages should this drought reoccur, (e) assess impacts and damages associated with these shortages, and (f) investigate a small set of coping strategies. Each step in this process raised a variety of technical challenges and drew upon the talents of approximately 40 researchers including engineers/hydrologists, attorneys, economists, environmental scientists, sociologists, and policy specialists. The goal was to stimulate thinking and reform prior to a drought crisis; however, the study findings were largely ignored until the recent drought crisis, and then once discovered, some of the key conclusions of the study regarding substantive issues of water shortage vulnerability and distribution were found to be inconsistent with (and thus potentially irrelevant to solving) the current drought. Understanding why some key results of the research scenario differ significantly from the current crisis is important in informing future scenario analyses. Specifically, this case study highlights the importance and difficulty of (a) effectively linking scientific modeling efforts with social analyses, and (b) linking scenario analyses to real-world policy-making settings. In this basin, improving the understanding of drought is likely less about improved scholarship in climate and hydrology, and more about

  12. Chickamauga reservoir embayment study - 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinert, D.L.; Butkus, S.R.; McDonough, T.A.

    1992-12-01

    The objectives of this report are three-fold: (1) assess physical, chemical, and biological conditions in the major embayments of Chickamauga Reservoir; (2) compare water quality and biological conditions of embayments with main river locations; and (3) identify any water quality concerns in the study embayments that may warrant further investigation and/or management actions. Embayments are important areas of reservoirs to be considered when assessments are made to support water quality management plans. In general, embayments, because of their smaller size (water surface areas usually less than 1000 acres), shallower morphometry (average depth usually less than 10 feet), and longer detention times (frequently a month or more), exhibit more extreme responses to pollutant loadings and changes in land use than the main river region of the reservoir. Consequently, embayments are often at greater risk of water quality impairments (e.g. nutrient enrichment, filling and siltation, excessive growths of aquatic plants, algal blooms, low dissolved oxygen concentrations, bacteriological contamination, etc.). Much of the secondary beneficial use of reservoirs occurs in embayments (viz. marinas, recreation areas, parks and beaches, residential development, etc.). Typically embayments comprise less than 20 percent of the surface area of a reservoir, but they often receive 50 percent or more of the water-oriented recreational use of the reservoir. This intensive recreational use creates a potential for adverse use impacts if poor water quality and aquatic conditions exist in an embayment.

  13. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 4. Description of a Belgian scenario for PWR waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crustin, J.; Glibert, R.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on Belgian practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for LWR waste based on economical and radiological criteria

  14. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 3. Description of German scenarios for PWR and BWR wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santraille, S.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on German practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for PWR and BWR wastes based on economical and radiological criteria

  15. Radio Resource Management Techniques for eMBB and mMTC services in 5G Dense Small Cell Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmood, Nurul Huda; Lauridsen, Mads; Berardinelli, Gilberto

    2016-01-01

    requirements. This article provides an overview of key radio resource management techniques for 5G dense small cells and demonstrates how these techniques can contribute to fulfilling some of the important 5G requirements. Preliminary system level simulation results indicate that a mean throughput gain...... design requirements. Dense small cells with multiple antenna nodes are believed to be key elements in meeting these challenging requirements. 5G will thus feature an adaptable air interface with carefully designed radio resource management techniques that can optimize each link according to its service...... of around 65%, and up to 84% in latency reduction can be achieved utilizing the discussed resource management techniques....

  16. Assessment of management alternatives for LWR wastes. Volume 2. Description of a French scenario for PWR waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saulieu, E. de; Chary, C.

    1993-01-01

    This report deals with the description of a management route for PWR waste relying to a certain extent on French practices in this particular area. This description, which aims at providing input data for subsequent cost evaluation, includes all management steps which are usually implemented for solid, liquid and gaseous wastes from their production up to the interim storage of the final waste products. This study is part of an overall theoretical exercise aimed at evaluating a selection of management routes for LWR waste based on economical and radiological criteria

  17. A Bayesian-based two-stage inexact optimization method for supporting stream water quality management in the Three Gorges Reservoir region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X H; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Zhuang, X W; Ding, X W

    2016-05-01

    In this study, a Bayesian-based two-stage inexact optimization (BTIO) method is developed for supporting water quality management through coupling Bayesian analysis with interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP). The BTIO method is capable of addressing uncertainties caused by insufficient inputs in water quality model as well as uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions and interval numbers. The BTIO method is applied to a real case of water quality management for the Xiangxi River basin in the Three Gorges Reservoir region to seek optimal water quality management schemes under various uncertainties. Interval solutions for production patterns under a range of probabilistic water quality constraints have been generated. Results obtained demonstrate compromises between the system benefit and the system failure risk due to inherent uncertainties that exist in various system components. Moreover, information about pollutant emission is accomplished, which would help managers to adjust production patterns of regional industry and local policies considering interactions of water quality requirement, economic benefit, and industry structure.

  18. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten

    2015-01-01

    In this paper I describe s how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack‑defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other⠒s projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be playe d by pre‑service construction workers...... opponent⠒s building project for weak spots. The intention of the project management simulation game, is to provide students with an increased sensitivity towards the relation between planning and reality in complex construction projects. The project management simulation game can be interpreted both...... as a competitive game and as a simulation. Both of these views are meaningful and can be seen as supporting learnin g. Emphasizing the simulation aspect let us explain how students learn by being immersed into a simulated world, where the players identify with specific roles, live out specific situations...

  19. Shoreline to Height (S2H): an algorithm to monitor reservoirs' water height from satellite images. A flood risk management application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Gabellani, Simone; Gardella, Fabio; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Benedetto, Catia

    2016-04-01

    In a reservoir, water level monitoring is important for emergency management purposes. This information can be used to estimate the degree of filling of the water body, thus helping decision makers in flood control operations. Furthermore, if assimilated in hydrological models and coupled with rainfall forecasts, this information can be used for flood forecast and early warning. In many cases, water level is not known (e.g. data-scarce environments), or not shared by operators. Remote sensing may allow overcoming these limitations, enabling its estimation. The objective of this work is to present the Shoreline to Height (S2H) algorithm, developed to retrieve the height of the water stored in reservoirs from satellite images. To this aim, some auxiliary data are needed: a DEM and the maximum/minimum height that can be reached by the water. In data-scarce environments, these information can be easily obtained on the Internet (e.g. free, worldwide DEM and design data for artificial reservoirs). S2H was tested with different satellite data, both optical and SAR (Landsat and Cosmo SkyMed®-CSK®) in order to assess the impact of different sensors on the final estimates. The study area was the Place-Moulin Lake (Valle d'Aosta-VdA, Italy), where it is present a monitoring network that can provide reliable ground-truths for validating the algorithm and assessing its accuracy. When the algorithm was developed, it was assumed to be in absence of any "official"-auxiliary data. Therefore, two DEMs (SRTM 1 arc-second and ASTER GDEM) were used to evaluate their performances. The maximum/minimum water height values were found on the website of VdA Region. The S2H is based on three steps: i) satellite data preprocessing (Landsat: atmospheric correction; CSK®: geocoding and speckle filtering); ii) water mask generation (using a thresholding and region growing algorithm) and shoreline extraction; iii) retrieval of the shoreline height according to the reference DEMs (adopting a

  20. Integrated hydrological model-based assessment of stormwater management scenarios in Copenhagen's first climate resilient neighbourhood using the three point approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lerer, Sara Maria; Righetti, Francesco; Rozario, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The city of Copenhagen currently pursues a very ambitious plan to make the city 'cloudburst proof' within the next 30 years. The cloudburst management plan has the potential to support the city's aim to become more green, liveable, and sustainable. In this study, we assessed stormwater system...... designs using the Three Point Approach (3PA) as a framework, where an indicator value for each domain was calculated using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. We demonstrated the methodology on scenarios representing sequential enhancements of the cloudburst management plan for a district that has been...... appointed to become the first climate resilient neighbourhood in Copenhagen. The results show that if the cloudburst system is exploited to discharge runoff from selected areas that are disconnected from the combined sewer system, then the plan leads to multiple benefits. These include improved flood...

  1. Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations: Lessons Learned from a Multi-Agency Collaborative Research and Operations Effort to improve Flood Risk Management, Water Supply and Environmental Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbot, C. A.; Ralph, M.; Jasperse, J.; Forbis, J.

    2017-12-01

    Lessons learned from the multi-agency Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) effort demonstrate how research and observations can inform operations and policy decisions at Federal, State and Local water management agencies with the collaborative engagement and support of researchers, engineers, operators and stakeholders. The FIRO steering committee consists of scientists, engineers and operators from research and operational elements of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the US Army Corps of Engineers, researchers from the US Geological Survey and the US Bureau of Reclamation, the state climatologist from the California Department of Water Resources, the chief engineer from the Sonoma County Water Agency, and the director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California-San Diego. The FIRO framework also provides a means of testing and demonstrating the benefits of next-generation water cycle observations, understanding and models in water resources operations.

  2. Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

  3. RETRACTION: Heritage Management Of Temple Tanks In An Urban Scenario: A Case Study Of Thirupporur, a Traditional Town In the State of Tamilnadu, India, by Kubilay Kaptan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kubilay Kaptan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Editor-in-Chief retracts this paper in accordance with recommendations of the Committee on Publication Ethics – COPE, after finding evidence of plagiarism. The retraction note is applicable to the following article: “Heritage management of temple tanks in an urban scenario - a case study of Thirupporur, a traditional town in the state of Tamilnadu, India”, https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1973-9494/4188 published online and in the print version of the Journal Conservation Science in Cultural Heritage, N.13 – 2013. The article plagiarized is the following: R. Vedamuthu and D. Jayanthi, “Heritage Management of Temple Tanks in an Urban Scenario - A Case Study of Thirupporur, a Traditional Town in the State of Tamilnadu, India” in “Studies on Historical Heritage” in the Proceedings of the International Symposium, Antalya, Turkey, September 17-21, 2007 http://www.tamir.yildiz.edu.tr/images/images/SHH07-2%20Ch3,%204.pdf.pdfReaders are strongly encouraged to refer to this article instead of the retracted item. We apologize to readers and to the authors of the previously published paper for this very serious oversight.

  4. Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, M. S.; Coronado, C.; Miller, M. W.; Rudnick, D. T.; Stabenau, E.; Halley, R. B.; Sklar, F. H.

    2015-04-01

    Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year-1 and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.

  5. A multi-reservoir based water-hydroenergy management model for identifying the risk horizon of regional resources-energy policy under uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, X.T.; Zhang, S.J.; Feng, J.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.P.; Zhang, P.; Chen, J.P.; Li, K.L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multi-reservoir system can handle water/energy deficit, flood and sediment damage. • A MWH model is developed for planning a water allocation and energy generation issue. • A mixed fuzzy-stochastic risk analysis method (MFSR) can handle uncertainties in MWH. • A hybrid MWH model can plan human-recourse-energy with a robust and effective manner. • Results can support adjusting water-energy policy to satisfy increasing demands. - Abstract: In this study, a multi-reservoir based water-hydroenergy management (MWH) model is developed for planning water allocation and hydroenergy generation (WAHG) under uncertainties. A mixed fuzzy-stochastic risk analysis method (MFSR) is introduced to handle objective and subjective uncertainties in MWH model, which can couple fuzzy credibility programming and risk management within a general two-stage context, with aim to reflect the infeasibility risks between expected targets and random second-stage recourse costs. The developed MWH model (embedded by MFSR method) can be applied to a practical study of WAHG issue in Jing River Basin (China), which encounters conflicts between human activity and resource/energy crisis. The construction of water-energy nexus (WEN) is built to reflect integrity of economic development and resource/energy conservation, as well as confronting natural and artificial damages such as water deficit, electricity insufficient, floodwater, high sedimentation deposition contemporarily. Meanwhile, the obtained results with various credibility levels and target-violated risk levels can support generating a robust plan associated with risk control for identification of the optimized water-allocation and hydroenergy-generation alternatives, as well as flood controls. Moreover, results can be beneficial for policymakers to discern the optimal water/sediment release routes, reservoirs’ storage variations (impacted by sediment deposition), electricity supply schedules and system benefit

  6. Reservoir optimisation using El Niño information. Case study of Daule Peripa (Ecuador)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-05-01

    inflow forecasts, and by applying the base policy on a subsequent synthetic inflow scenario in order to account for long-term costs; (iv) the optimised release for the first month is implemented; (v) the state of the system is updated and (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) are iterated for the following time step. The results highlight the advantages of using a climate-driven stochastic model to produce inflow scenarios and forecasts for reservoir optimisation, showing potential improvements with respect to the current management. Dynamic programming was used to find the best possible release time series given the inflow observations, in order to benchmark any possible operational improvement.

  7. Distributed ecohydrological modelling to evaluate irrigation system performance in Sirsa district, India II: Impact of viable water management scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, R.; Jhorar, R.K.; Dam, van J.C.; Feddes, R.A.

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the identification of appropriate strategies to improve water management and productivity in an irrigated area of 4270 km2 in India (Sirsa district). The field scale ecohydrological model SWAP in combination with field experiments, remote sensing and GIS has been applied in a

  8. The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management : Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruiten, Leon; Hartmann, T.

    2016-01-01

    The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from

  9. Why don't Practitioners use Reservoir Optimization Methods? Results from a Survey of UK Water Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, B.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive scientific literature exists on the study of how operation decisions in water resource systems can be made more effectively through the use of optimization methods. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, there is little in the literature on the implementation of these optimization methods by practitioners. We have performed a survey among UK reservoir operators to assess the current state of method implementation in practice. We also ask questions to assess the potential for implementation of operation optimization. This will help academics to target industry in their current research, identify any misconceptions in industry about the area and open new branches of research for which there is an unsatisfied demand. The UK is a good case study because the regulatory framework is changing to impose "no build" solutions for supply issues, as well as planning across entire water resource systems rather than individual components. Additionally there is a high appetite for efficiency due to the water industry's privatization and most operators are part of companies that control multiple water resources, increasing the potential for cooperation and coordination.

  10. Field demonstration of an active reservoir pressure management through fluid injection and displaced fluid extractions at the Rock Springs Uplift, a priority geologic CO2 storage site for Wyoming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Zunsheng [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2017-04-05

    This report provides the results from the project entitled Field Demonstration of Reservoir Pressure Management through Fluid Injection and Displaced Fluid Extraction at the Rock Springs Uplift, a Priority Geologic CO2 Storage Site for Wyoming (DE-FE0026159 for both original performance period (September 1, 2015 to August 31, 2016) and no-cost extension (September 1, 2016 to January 6, 2017)).

  11. The interdisciplinary team in type 2 diabetes management: Challenges and best practice solutions from real-world scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret McGill

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The Global Partnership for Effective Diabetes Management has previously recommended the implementation of an interdisciplinary team (IDT approach to type 2 diabetes (T2DM management as one of 10 practical steps for health care professionals to help more people achieve their glycaemic goal. This article discusses some of the key contributors to success and also the challenges faced when applying IDT care, by examining case studies and examples from around the world. The real-world practices discussed show that implementing successful interdisciplinary care in diabetes is possible despite significant barriers such as established hierarchal structures and financial resource constraints. Instituting collaborative, integrated working relationships among multiple disciplines under strong leadership, together with enhanced and active communication and improved patient access to appropriate specialties is essential. Patients have a crucial role in the management of their own disease and including them as part of the treatment team is also critical. IDTs in diabetes care improve patient outcomes in terms of control of glycaemia and cardiometabolic risk factors, and decreased risk of diabetes complications. Ensuring access to an appropriate IDT, in whatever form, is paramount to enable the best care to be delivered.

  12. The interdisciplinary team in type 2 diabetes management: Challenges and best practice solutions from real-world scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Margaret; Blonde, Lawrence; Chan, Juliana C N; Khunti, Kamlesh; Lavalle, Fernando J; Bailey, Clifford J

    2017-03-01

    The Global Partnership for Effective Diabetes Management has previously recommended the implementation of an interdisciplinary team (IDT) approach to type 2 diabetes (T2DM) management as one of 10 practical steps for health care professionals to help more people achieve their glycaemic goal. This article discusses some of the key contributors to success and also the challenges faced when applying IDT care, by examining case studies and examples from around the world. The real-world practices discussed show that implementing successful interdisciplinary care in diabetes is possible despite significant barriers such as established hierarchal structures and financial resource constraints. Instituting collaborative, integrated working relationships among multiple disciplines under strong leadership, together with enhanced and active communication and improved patient access to appropriate specialties is essential. Patients have a crucial role in the management of their own disease and including them as part of the treatment team is also critical. IDTs in diabetes care improve patient outcomes in terms of control of glycaemia and cardiometabolic risk factors, and decreased risk of diabetes complications. Ensuring access to an appropriate IDT, in whatever form, is paramount to enable the best care to be delivered.

  13. Application of PSO algorithm in short-term optimization of reservoir operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SaberChenari, Kazem; Abghari, Hirad; Tabari, Hossein

    2016-12-01

    The optimization of the operation of existing water systems such as dams is very important for water resource planning and management especially in arid and semi-arid lands. Due to budget and operational water resource limitations and environmental problems, the operation optimization is gradually replaced by new systems. The operation optimization of water systems is a complex, nonlinear, multi-constraint, and multidimensional problem that needs robust techniques. In this article, the practical swarm optimization (PSO) was adopted for solving the operation problem of multipurpose Mahabad reservoir dam in the northwest of Iran. The desired result or target function is to minimize the difference between downstream monthly demand and release. The method was applied with considering the reduction probabilities of inflow for the four scenarios of normal and drought conditions. The results showed that in most of the scenarios for normal and drought conditions, released water obtained by the PSO model was equal to downstream demand and also, the reservoir volume was reducing for the probabilities of inflow. The PSO model revealed a good performance to minimize the reservoir water loss, and this operation policy can be an appropriate policy in the drought condition for the reservoir.

  14. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  15. Estimation of Bank Erosion Due To Reservoir Operation in Cascade (Case Study: Citarum Cascade Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Legowo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Sedimentation is such a crucial issue to be noted once the accumulated sediment begins to fill the reservoir dead storage, this will then influence the long-term reservoir operation. The sediment accumulated requires a serious attention for it may influence the storage capacity and other reservoir management of activities. The continuous inflow of sediment to the reservoir will decrease the capacity of reservoir storage, the reservoir value in use, and the useful age of reservoir. Because of that, the rate of the sediment needs to be delayed as possible. In this research, the delay of the sediment rate is considered based on the rate of flow of landslide of the reservoir slope. The rate of flow of the sliding slope can be minimized by way of each reservoir autonomous efforts. This effort can be performed through; the regulation of fluctuating rate of reservoir surface current that does not cause suddenly drawdown and upraising as well. The research model is compiled using the searching technique of Non Linear Programming (NLP.The rate of bank erosion for the reservoir variates from 0.0009 to 0.0048 MCM/year, which is no sigrificant value to threaten the life time of reservoir.Mean while the rate of watershed sediment has a significant value, i.e: 3,02 MCM/year for Saguling that causes to fullfill the storage capacity in 40 next years (from years 2008.

  16. Multiscale ensemble filtering for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawniczak, W.; Hanea, R.G.; Heemink, A.; McLaughlin, D.

    2009-01-01

    Reservoir management requires periodic updates of the simulation models using the production data available over time. Traditionally, validation of reservoir models with production data is done using a history matching process. Uncertainties in the data, as well as in the model, lead to a nonunique

  17. Update of energy performance certificates in the residential sector and scenarios that consider the impact of automation, control and management systems: A case study of La Rioja

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López-González, Luis M.; López-Ochoa, Luis M.; Las-Heras-Casas, Jesús; García-Lozano, César

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A total of 9416 energy performance certificates in the residential sector were analyzed. • Approximately 40% of the energy performance certificates were incorrect. • The developed algorithms can be generalized for the remainder of Spain. • Introducing BACS and TBM systems can reduce building energy consumption by up to 26.36%. - Abstract: Energy performance certificates are considered to be tools for knowledge and energy planning in the residential sector. Although energy performance certificates describe primary energy consumption and the associated emissions of a home or building, they do not consider the influence of building automation control systems (BACS) or technical building management (TBM) systems on these parameters. The European Standard EN 15232 remedies this shortcoming and evaluates the savings in primary energy and the reduction of CO 2 emissions that can be achieved by these systems. This study investigates the energy performance certificates registered in the Autonomous Community of La Rioja and considers the policy changes in the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación) and, specifically, the Basic Document for Energy Saving (Documento Básico de Ahorro de Energía) (CTE-DB-HE). Due to this regulatory change, we corrected the certificates and outlined different scenarios based on the implementation of these systems in this study. These scenarios show the potential distribution of energy performance certificates and the improvements in the ratings obtained.

  18. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. RODOS-based simulation of potential accident scenarios for emergency response management in the vicinity of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, H.; Gering, F.; Arnold, K.; Gerich, B.; Heinrich, G.; Welte, U.

    2016-09-15

    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) started to investigate the potential radiological consequences of a ''Fukushima-like'' accident in a German nuclear power plant and conducted appropriate simulations in 2012. Between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013, the first study was followed by a much more detailed and comprehensive investigation comprising more than 5000 case studies for three nuclear power plant (NPP) sites in Germany. Based on these results the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK) released a new recommendation in March 2014 including an expansion of the current emergency planning zones for nuclear power plants in Germany. The key results of this study with respect to the maximum dimensions of the affected areas where dose criteria may be exceeded are described below. The following results are based on the largest nuclear release scenario ''FKA'' (INES scale 7): - Threshold levels for deterministic effects and high doses (effective doses higher than 1000 mSv) can be reached or exceeded within a distance of about 3 km on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Evacuation'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 9 to 18 km (adults) and/or up to 14 to 24 km (infants) on average (the indicated interval describes the minimum and maximum levels of the median value at all three NPP sites). - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Sheltering'' can be reached or exceeded within a distance of up to 62 to 80 km (adults) and/or up to 91 to 114 km (infants) on average. - The emergency reference level for the intervention ''Stable iodine prophylaxis'' can be exceeded within a distance of up to 24 to 34 km (adults) and/or up to 148 to 161 km (infants and pregnant women) on average.

  20. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

    Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity, we suggest that appropriate planning measures should

  1. A reservoir operating method for riverine ecosystem protection, reservoir sedimentation control and water supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Xin-An; Yang, Zhi-Feng; Petts, Geoffrey E.; Kondolf, G. Mathias

    2014-05-01

    Riverine ecosystem protection requires the maintenance of natural flow and sediment regimes downstream from dams. In reservoir management schedules this requirement should be integrated with sedimentation control and human water supply. However, traditional eco-friendly reservoir operating methods have usually only considered the natural flow regime. This paper seeks to develop a reservoir operating method that accounts for both the natural flow and sediment regimes as well as optimizing the water supply allocations. Herein, reservoir water level (RWL), sediment-occupied ratio of reservoir volume (SOR) and rate of change of SOR (RCSOR) are adopted as three triggers of a drawdown-flushing-based sediment management policy. Two different groups of reservoir operating rule curves (RORCs) are designed for sediment-flushing and non-sediment-flushing years, and the three triggers, RWL, SOR and RCSOR, are used to change the “static” RORCs to “dynamic” ones. The approach is applied to the Wangkuai Reservoir, China to test its effectiveness. This shows that the approach can improve the flexibility of reservoir operators to balance the reservoir management, water supply management and the flow and sediment needs of the downstream riverine ecosystem.

  2. Impacts, Effectiveness and Regional Inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4 Solar Radiation Management Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Xiaoyong; Moore, John; Cui, Xuefeng; Rinke, Annette; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2015-06-01

    We evaluate the regional effectiveness of solar radiation management (SRM) to compensate for simultaneous changes in temperature and precipitation induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. We analyze results from multiple earth system models under four Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project(GeoMIP) experiments with a modified form of the Residual Climate Response approach. Under the solar dimming geoengineering experiments G1(4xCO2) and G2(increasing CO2 by 1% per year), global average temperature is successfully restored to pre-industrial level over 50 years simulations. However, these two SRM experiments also produce a robust global precipitation decrease. The stratospheric aerosol GeoMIP geoengineering experiment, G4 has significantly greater regional inequality and lower effectiveness for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2. G4 also has significantly larger regional inequality for compensating precipitation change than G1and G2. However, there is no significant difference between precipitation change compensation effectiveness of G4 and G2, though there is much larger across model variability in G4 results. G3 has significant greater regional inequality for compensating temperature change than G1 and G2, and has significant lower effectiveness than G1. The effectiveness of four SRMs to compensate for temperature change is much higher than for precipitation. The large cross-model variation in adjustment percentage of compensated SAT and precipitation change by SRM to achieve optimal compensation effectiveness shed a light on the uncertainty accumulation effect in optimizing compensation effectiveness of SRM.

  3. EXTENSION SUPPORT FOR GRAIN CROP PRODUCERS UNDER CLIMATE VARIABILITY SCENARIO: IMPLICATIONS FOR EXTENSION MANAGEMENT IN LIMPOPO PROVINCE, SOUTH AFRICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Blay Afful

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined how the farm management support provided by public extension to mitigate the eff ects of climate variability infl uences farmers’ production, and whether this support considers farmers’ capital assets. Both probability and non-probability sampling procedures were used to select districts, municipalities and farmers from 20 villages of Limpopo province, South Africa in January, 2014. Semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data from fi eld-level extension agents and smallholder grain farmers. The most common climate variability coping strategy promoted by many agents was climate-smart agriculture practices. This strategy was applied by most users and non-users of extension support. The most popular channel used by agents to communicate information to farmers was farm visits. There were indications that agents did not consider producers’ capital assets in their choice of channels to communicate information to producers. Results further indicate that extension support, including climate variability information, contributed to increased crop yields, albeit small. It is recommended that fi eld trials be done to ensure proper application of climate variability coping measures. More use of mass media and group methods to supplement farm visits is recommended. 

  4. Fish community response to the longitudinal environmental gradient in Czech deep-valley reservoirs: Implications for ecological monitoring and management.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vašek, Mojmír; Prchalová, Marie; Říha, Milan; Blabolil, Petr; Čech, Martin; Draštík, Vladislav; Frouzová, Jaroslava; Jůza, Tomáš; Kratochvíl, Michal; Muška, Milan; Peterka, Jiří; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Šmejkal, Marek; Tušer, Michal; Vejřík, Lukáš; Znachor, Petr; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Seďa, Jaromír; Kubečka, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 63, April (2016), s. 219-230 ISSN 1470-160X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0204; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-01625S Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : ecological quality * eutrophication * fish community * gradients * water management Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.898, year: 2016

  5. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  6. Biogeochemical mass balances in a turbid tropical reservoir. Field data and modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Doan, Thuy Kim; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Schmid, Martin

    2014-05-01

    fitted well to the field measurements. Furthermore, this analysis indicates that the benthic mineralizations are the dominant processes involved in the nutrients release. This is the first implementation of a biogeochemical model applied to a highly productive reservoir in the TMVB in order to estimate nutrients release from sediments. It could be used for scenarios of reduction of eutrophication in the reservoir. This study provides a good example of the behavior of a small tropical reservoir under intense human pressure and it will help stakeholders to adopt appropriate strategies for the management of turbid tropical reservoirs.

  7. Deployment of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) in Emergency and Disaster Response Scenarios to Support Local Emergency Management Agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calamaio, C. L.; Walker, J.; Beck, J. M.; Graves, S. J.; Johnson, C.

    2017-12-01

    Researchers at the Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville are working closely with the Madison County Emergency Management Agency (EMA), GeoHuntsville's UAS Working Group, and the NOAA UAS Program Office, to conduct a series of practical demonstrations testing the use of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) for emergency response activities in Madison County, Alabama. These exercises demonstrate the use of UAS to detect and visualize hazards in affected areas via the delivery of aerial imagery and associated data products to law enforcement first responders in a variety of different scenarios, for example, search and rescue, tornado track mapping, damage assessment, and situational awareness/containment during active shooter incidents. In addition to showcasing the use of UAS as a tool for emergency services, these pilot exercises provide the opportunity to engage the appropriate stakeholders from several communities including first responders, geospatial intelligence, active members of the unmanned systems industry, and academia. This presentation will showcase the challenges associated with delivering quality data products for emergency services in a timely manner as well as the related challenges in integrating the technology into local emergency management.

  8. Hazardous waste storage facility accident scenarios for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.; Roglans-Ribas, J.; Marmer, D.; Lazaro, M.; Mueller, C.; Freeman, W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the methods for developing accident categories and accident frequencies for internally initiated accidents at hazardous waste storage facilities (HWSFs) at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites. This categorization is a necessary first step in evaluating the risk of accidents to workers and the general population at each of the sites. This risk evaluation is part of the process of comparing alternative management strategies in DOE's Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Such strategies involve regionalization, decentralization, and centralization of waste treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Potential accidents at the HWSFs at the DOE sites are divided into categories of spill alone, spill plus fire, and other event combinations including spill plus fire plus explosion, fire only, spill and explosion, and fire and explosion. One or more accidents are chosen to represent the types of accidents for FY 1992 for 12 DOE sites were studied to determine the most representative set of possible accidents at all DOE sites. Each accident scenario is given a probability of occurrence that is adjusted, depending on the throughput and waste composition that passes through the HWSF at the particular site. The justification for the probabilities chosen is presented

  9. Integrated Hydrological Model-Based Assessment of Stormwater Management Scenarios in Copenhagen’s First Climate Resilient Neighbourhood Using the Three Point Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Maria Lerer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The city of Copenhagen currently pursues a very ambitious plan to make the city ‘cloudburst proof’ within the next 30 years. The cloudburst management plan has the potential to support the city’s aim to become more green, liveable, and sustainable. In this study, we assessed stormwater system designs using the Three Point Approach (3PA as a framework, where an indicator value for each domain was calculated using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. We demonstrated the methodology on scenarios representing sequential enhancements of the cloudburst management plan for a district that has been appointed to become the first climate resilient neighbourhood in Copenhagen. The results show that if the cloudburst system is exploited to discharge runoff from selected areas that are disconnected from the combined sewer system, then the plan leads to multiple benefits. These include improved flood protection under a 100-years storm (i.e., compliance with the new demands in domain C of the 3PA, reduced surcharge to terrain under a 10-years storm (i.e., compliance with the service goal in domain B of the 3PA and an improved yearly water balance (i.e., better performance in domain A of the 3PA.

  10. Development of a Reservoir System Operation Model for Water Sustainability in the Yaqui River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mounir, A.; Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kauneckis, D.

    2017-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico underwent the Sonora SI project to provide additional water supply to the capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the project involves an interbasin transfer from the Yaqui River Basin (YRB) to the Sonora River Basin via the Independencia aqueduct. This project has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors in the YRB. To improve the management of the Yaqui reservoir system, we developed a daily watershed model. This model allowed us to predict the amount of water available in different regions of the basin. We integrated this simulation to an optimization model which calculates the best water allocation according to water rights established in Mexico's National Water Law. We compared different precipitation forcing scenarios: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies during the historical period of 1980-2013, (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution, and (3) we will be studying a future forecast scenario. The simulation results were compared to historical observations at the three reservoirs existing in the YRB to generate confidence in the simulation tools. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedance frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate building confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of reservoir operation policies.

  11. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  12. Estimated cumulative sediment trapping in future hydropower reservoirs in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucía, Ana; Berlekamp, Jürgen; Zarfl, Christiane

    2017-04-01

    Despite a rapid economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa, almost 70% of the human population in this area remain disconnected from electricity access (International Energy Agency 2011). Mitigating climate change and a search for renewable, "climate neutral" electricity resources are additional reasons why Africa will be one key centre for future hydropower dam building, with only 8% of the technically feasible hydropower potential actually exploited. About 300 major hydropower dams with a total capacity of 140 GW are currently under construction (11.4%) or planned (88.6%) (Zarfl et al. 2015). Despite the benefits of hydropower dams, fragmentation of the rivers changes the natural flow, temperature and sediment regime. This has consequences for a high number of people that directly depend on the primary sector linked to rivers and floodplains. But sediment trapping in the reservoir also affects dam operation and decreases its life span. Thus, the objective of this work is to quantify the dimension of sediment trapping by future hydropower dams in African river basins. Soil erosion is described with the universal soil loss equation (Wischmeier & Smith 1978) and combined with the connectivity index (Cavalli et al. 2013) to estimate the amount of eroded soil that reaches the fluvial network and finally ends up in the existing (Lehner et al. 2011) and future reservoirs (Zarfl et al. 2015) per year. Different scenarios assuming parameter values from the literature are developed to include model uncertainty. Estimations for existing dams will be compared with literature data to evaluate the applied estimation method and scenario assumptions. Based on estimations for the reservoir volume of the future dams we calculated the potential time-laps of the future reservoirs due to soil erosion and depending on their planned location. This approach could support sustainable decision making for the location of future hydropower dams. References Cavalli, M., Trevisani, S., Comiti

  13. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT ii Peer Reviewers* John Church, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Ivan Haigh, Ocean...and disadvantages . We provide descriptions of some commonly used federal tools that agencies are currently using or developing to enable the reader to...altering habitual thinking, stimulating creativity, clarifying points of agreement and disagreement, identifying and engaging needed participants , or

  14. Uncertainty based analysis of the impact of watershed phosphorus load on reservoir phosphorus concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamouz, Mohammad; Taheriyoun, Masoud; Seyedabadi, Mohammadreza; Nazif, Sara

    2015-02-01

    In many regions of the world that depend on surface reservoirs as a source of water supply, eutrophication is a major water quality problem. Developing simulation models to evaluate the impact of watershed nutrient loads on the reservoir's water quality is an essential step in eutrophication management. In this regard, analysis of model uncertainty gives an opportunity to assess the reliability and the margin of safety of the model predictions for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) from the watershed nutrient load. In this study, a computational procedure has been proposed for the analysis of the model uncertainties in simulation of watershed phosphorous load and reservoir phosphorous concentration. Data from the Aharchai watershed which is located upstream of the Satarkhan reservoir in the northwestern part of Iran, is used as the study area to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) is utilized for assessment of watershed phosphorus load as the main agent resulting in the reservoir eutrophication in the region. The most effective parameters in model performance are identified by a global sensitivity analysis technique named modified Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) which can incorporate parameter interdependencies. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique is also applied to set up behavioral ranges of the parameters that are relevant to the actual observations. Finally, the cumulative weighted-likelihood distribution functions (CWLDF) are derived for outputs of the SWAT. They are used jointly for estimation of results uncertainty limits using the Copula method. To assess the effectiveness of applying Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the watershed, two scenarios of with and without BMPs application are tested. The results showed the effectiveness of the proposed model in uncertainty estimation of watershed phosphorus load and reservoir phosphorus concentration as well as the

  15. Climate variability and sedimentation of a hydropower reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, M.

    2008-01-01

    This presentation discussed a large-scale watershed and reservoir sedimentation model developed to predict potential sedimentation scenarios for a large hydroelectric power project located in the central Appalachians. The geographic information system (GIS) watershed model was calibrated using observed long-term meteorological and hydrological data. Potential development scenarios were then used to construct future watershed land cover scenarios. Future climate change regimes and precipitation and temperature pattern shifts were identified using climatic variability and potential change analyses. Results of the study were then forecast for a period of 50 years and used to develop sediment yield regimes for the project's reservoir. The model was validated using reservoir and fields studies for watershed, river, and reservoir hydrodynamics. The resulting 3-D hydrological sedimentation model was then used to forecast changes in river sedimentation and storage capacity under various future climate scenarios. Results of the study showed the development of unique zones of advancing sediment deltas and temporary storage areas. Warmer and wetter scenarios produced sedimentation impacts similar to scenarios without climatic change. It was concluded that results of the analyses will be used to help reduce future soil losses in the reservoir. tabs., figs

  16. Status of Wheeler Reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This is one in a series of status reports prepared by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for those interested in the conditions of TVA reservoirs. This overview of Wheeler Reservoir summarizes reservoir purposes and operation, reservoir and watershed characteristics, reservoir uses and use impairments, and water quality and aquatic biological conditions. The information presented here is from the most recent reports, publications, and original data available. If no recent data were available, historical data were summarized. If data were completely lacking, environmental professionals with special knowledge of the resource were interviewed. 12 refs., 2 figs.

  17. Integrated methods and scenario development for urban groundwater management and protection during tunnel road construction: a case study of urban hydrogeology in the city of Basel, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epting, J.; Huggenberger, P.; Rauber, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the northwestern area of Basel, Switzerland, a tunnel highway connects the French highway A35 (Mulhouse Basel) with the Swiss A2 (Basel Gotthard Milano). The subsurface highway construction was associated with significant impacts on the urban groundwater system. Parts of this area were formerly contaminated by industrial wastes, and groundwater resources are extensively used by industry. During some construction phases, considerable groundwater drawdown was necessary, leading to major changes in the groundwater flow regime. Sufficient groundwater supply for industrial users and possible groundwater pollution due to interactions with contaminated areas had to be taken into account. A groundwater management system is presented, comprising extensive groundwater monitoring, high-resolution numerical groundwater modeling, and the development and evaluation of different scenarios. This integrated approach facilitated the evaluation of the sum of impacts, and their interaction in time and space with changing hydrological boundary conditions. For all project phases, changes of the groundwater system had to be evaluated in terms of the various goals and requirements. Although the results of this study are case-specific, the overall conceptual approach and methodologies applied may be directly transferred to other urban areas.

  18. Nitrogen-Related Constraints of Carbon Uptake by Large-Scale Forest Expansion: Simulation Study for Climate Change and Management Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, Daniela

    2017-11-01

    Increase of forest areas has the potential to increase the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. However, the efficiency for C sequestration depends on the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), which is affected by climatic conditions and management practices. In this study, I analyze how N limitation affects C sequestration of afforestation and how it is influenced by individual climate variables, increased harvest, and fertilizer application. To this end, JSBACH, the land component of the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is applied in idealized simulation experiments. In those simulations, large-scale afforestation increases the terrestrial C sink in the 21st century by around 100 Pg C compared to a business as usual land-use scenario. N limitation reduces C sequestration roughly by the same amount. The relevance of compensating effects of uptake and release of carbon dioxide by plant productivity and soil decomposition, respectively, gets obvious from the simulations. N limitation of both fluxes compensates particularly in the tropics. Increased mineralization under global warming triggers forest expansion, which otherwise is restricted by N availability. Due to compensating higher plant productivity and soil respiration, the global net effect of warming for C sequestration is however rather small. Fertilizer application and increased harvest enhance C sequestration as well as boreal expansion. The additional C sequestration achieved by fertilizer application is offset to a large part by additional emissions of nitrous oxide.

  19. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  20. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  1. Water resources review: Wheeler Reservoir, 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallus, R.; Cox, J.P.

    1990-09-01

    Protection and enhancement of water quality is essential for attaining the full complement of beneficial uses of TVA reservoirs. The responsibility for improving and protecting TVA reservoir water quality is shared by various federal, state, and local agencies, as well as the thousands of corporations and property owners whose individual decisions affect water quality. TVA's role in this shared responsibility includes collecting and evaluating water resources data, disseminating water resources information, and acting as a catalyst to bring together agencies and individuals that have a responsibility or vested interest in correcting problems that have been identified. This report is one in a series of status reports that will be prepared for each of TVA's reservoirs. The purpose of this status report is to provide an up-to-date overview of the characteristics and conditions of Wheeler Reservoir, including: reservoir purposes and operation; physical characteristics of the reservoir and the watershed; water quality conditions: aquatic biological conditions: designated, actual, and potential uses of the reservoir and impairments of those uses; ongoing or planned reservoir management activities. Information and data presented here are form the most recent reports, publications, and original data available. 21 refs., 8 figs., 29 tabs.

  2. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

    2017-11-03

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  3. Integrating spatial modeling, climate change scenarios, invasive species risk, and public perceptions to inform sustainable management in mixed hemlock-hardwood forests in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunckel, Kathleen Lois

    Introduced invasive pests and climate change are perhaps the most important and persistent catalyst for changes in forest composition. Infestation and outbreak of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) along the eastern coast of the USA, has led to widespread loss of hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), and a shift in tree species composition towards hardwood stands. Maine's forest dominated landscape and position at the leading edge of the HWA invasion provides an excellent opportunity to inform sustainable forest management (SFM) practices by using spatially explicit models to predict current tree species distribution, future range shifts, and solicit broad based feedback from Maine residents about forest management goals and preferences. This paper describes an interdisciplinary study of the ecological and social implications of changes in mixed northern hardwood forests due to disturbance. A two stage mapping approach was used where presence/absence of eastern hemlock is predicted with an overall accuracy of 85% and the continuous distribution (% basal area) was predicted with an accuracy of 83%. Given the importance of climate variables in predicting eastern hemlock, forecasts of future range shifts are possible using data generated through climate scenarios. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset was used to model future shifts in the geographic range of eastern hemlock throughout the state of Maine. The results clearly describe a significant shift in eastern hemlock range with gains in total geographic area that is suitable habitat. Sustaining forest systems across the landscape requires not only ecological knowledge, but also the integration of multiple socio-economic criteria as well, including data obtained through broad-based public participation approaches. Here, 3000 Maine residents were surveyed and asked how they: (1) value local forests; (2) view forest management goals and threats to forest

  4. Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mafalda, Viana; Rebecca, Mancy; Roman, Biek; Sarah, Cleaveland; Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Daniel T, Haydon

    2014-01-01

    Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems.

  5. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  6. Comment on “Short-term combined economic emission scheduling of hydrothermal power systems with cascaded reservoirs using differential evolution” by K.K. Mandal and N. Chakaborty [Energy Convers. Manage. 50 (2009) 97–104

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadi, Abdollah; Nezhad, Ali Esmaeel

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the short-term combined economic emission scheduling of hydrothermal power systems with cascaded reservoirs [Energy Convers Manage. 50 (2009) 97–104], while differential evolution algorithm has been employed to solve the optimization problem. However, this problem is subjected to several constraints like the generation limitations of generating units. The solutions reported in the original paper do not satisfy the constraint on the initial and final reservoir storage volumes of hydro units as well as the constraint on the generated power by such units, which should be positive at any time of the scheduling period. Thus, this paper intends to prove this issue and solve the problem using Normal Boundary Intersection (NBI) method, in order to propose the correct solutions satisfying all the constraints of the short-term hydrothermal scheduling problem

  7. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario : planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework : to develop a scenario planning approach tailored t...

  8. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  9. The importance of realism in reservoir operation optimisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, Barnaby

    2017-04-01

    In previous work, we find that one of the most important barriers to uptake of reservoir operation optimisation methods in practice is the focus on sophisticated optimisation techniques at the expense of realism in problem formulation. Water resource management problems may be simplified to improve optimisation or even just to aid method explanation, however this does not foster faith about the applicability of its solution in real-world. We aim to make the first step towards developing a methodology to identify the trade-off between estimated performance within the optimisation model and actual performance when the 'optimal' solutions are implemented in practice. We start by robustly optimising reservoir operation policies over a wide range of inflow scenarios and confirming whether this optimal performance estimate is robust under a wider range of input forcing and model structure uncertainties. Model structure uncertainties are addressed, for example, through increased temporal resolution and inclusion of more sophisticated physical representations such as water head, losses and maintenance. Demand uncertainty will be considered in a similar manner to inflow uncertainty through use of an ensemble of synthetic demand time series. A longer-term goal and extension of this study is to investigate how to incorporate such wider uncertainties directly into the optimisation process itself.

  10. Model design for predicting extreme precipitation event impacts on water quality in a water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, M.; Jeznach, L. C.; Park, M. H.; Tobiason, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events such as tropical storms and hurricanes are by their nature rare, yet have disproportionate and adverse effects on surface water quality. In the context of drinking water reservoirs, common concerns of such events include increased erosion and sediment transport and influx of natural organic matter and nutrients. As part of an effort to model the effects of an extreme precipitation event on water quality at the reservoir intake of a major municipal water system, this study sought to estimate extreme-event watershed responses including streamflow and exports of nutrients and organic matter for use as inputs to a 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality reservoir model. Since extreme-event watershed exports are highly uncertain, we characterized and propagated predictive uncertainty using a quasi-Monte Carlo approach to generate reservoir model inputs. Three storm precipitation depths—corresponding to recurrence intervals of 5, 50, and 100 years—were converted to streamflow in each of 9 tributaries by volumetrically scaling 2 storm hydrographs from the historical record. Rating-curve models for concentratoin, calibrated using 10 years of data for each of 5 constituents, were then used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate lognormal probability model of constituent concentrations, conditional on each scenario's storm date and streamflow. A quasi-random Halton sequence (n = 100) was drawn from the conditional distribution for each event scenario, and used to generate input files to a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model. The resulting simulated concentrations at the reservoir's drinking water intake constitute a low-discrepancy sample from the estimated uncertainty space of extreme-event source water-quality. Limiting factors to the suitability of this approach include poorly constrained relationships between hydrology and constituent concentrations, a high-dimensional space from which to generate inputs, and relatively long run

  11. Drawdown flushing of a hydroelectric reservoir on the Rhône River: Impacts on the fish community and implications for the sediment management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimardias, David; Guillard, Jean; Cattanéo, Franck

    2017-07-15

    Sediment flushings of hydropower reservoirs are commonly performed to maintain water resource uses and ecosystem services, but may have strong impacts on fish communities. Despite the worldwide scope of this issue, very few studies report quantitative in situ evaluations of these impacts. In June 2012, the drawdown flushing of the Verbois reservoir (Rhône River) was performed and subsequent impacts on the fish community were assessed, both inside the reservoir (fish densities by hydroacoustic surveys) and downstream (short-term movement and survival of radio tracked adult fish). Results showed that after the flushing fish acoustic density decreased by 57% in the reservoir, and no recolonization process was observed over the following 16 months. Downstream of the dam, the global apparent survival of fish to the flushing was estimated at 74%, but differed between species. The nine-year delay from the previous flushing and thus the amount of sediments to remove were too stressful for the low-resilience fish community of the Rhône River. Alternative flushing schedules are discussed to reduce these impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Transport of reservoir fines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Hao; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    Modeling transport of reservoir fines is of great importance for evaluating the damage of production wells and infectivity decline. The conventional methodology accounts for neither the formation heterogeneity around the wells nor the reservoir fines’ heterogeneity. We have developed an integral...

  13. SILTATION IN RESERVOIRS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Calls have been made to the government through various media to assist its populace in combating this nagging problem. It was concluded that sediment maximum accumulation is experienced in reservoir during the periods of maximum flow. Keywords: reservoir model, siltation, sediment, catchment, sediment transport. 1.

  14. Dynamic reservoir well interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturm, W.L.; Belfroid, S.P.C.; Wolfswinkel, O. van; Peters, M.C.A.M.; Verhelst, F.J.P.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    In order to develop smart well control systems for unstable oil wells, realistic modeling of the dynamics of the well is essential. Most dynamic well models use a semi-steady state inflow model to describe the inflow of oil and gas from the reservoir. On the other hand, reservoir models use steady

  15. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational l...... theoretical understanding of scenario planning while simultaneously presenting a more nuanced account of the individual behaviors and social dynamics underpinning organizational learning.......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...

  16. a Stochastic Approach to Multiobjective Optimization of Large-Scale Water Reservoir Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Worman, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    A main challenge for the planning and management of water resources is the development of multiobjective strategies for operation of large-scale water reservoir networks. The optimal sequence of water releases from multiple reservoirs depends on the stochastic variability of correlated hydrologic inflows and on various processes that affect water demand and energy prices. Although several methods have been suggested, large-scale optimization problems arising in water resources management are still plagued by the high dimensional state space and by the stochastic nature of the hydrologic inflows. In this work, the optimization of reservoir operation is approached using approximate dynamic programming (ADP) with policy iteration and function approximators. The method is based on an off-line learning process in which operating policies are evaluated for a number of stochastic inflow scenarios, and the resulting value functions are used to design new, improved policies until convergence is attained. A case study is presented of a multi-reservoir system in the Dalälven River, Sweden, which includes 13 interconnected reservoirs and 36 power stations. Depending on the late spring and summer peak discharges, the lowlands adjacent to Dalälven can often be flooded during the summer period, and the presence of stagnating floodwater during the hottest months of the year is the cause of a large proliferation of mosquitos, which is a major problem for the people living in the surroundings. Chemical pesticides are currently being used as a preventive countermeasure, which do not provide an effective solution to the problem and have adverse environmental impacts. In this study, ADP was used to analyze the feasibility of alternative operating policies for reducing the flood risk at a reasonable economic cost for the hydropower companies. To this end, mid-term operating policies were derived by combining flood risk reduction with hydropower production objectives. The performance

  17. The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS). 1: Requirements Definition and Design Specifications for Versions 2.1 and 2.1.1. 2: Documented Test Scenario Environments. 3: Security Design and Specifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center Management Information System (JSCMIS) is an interface to computer data bases at NASA Johnson which allows an authorized user to browse and retrieve information from a variety of sources with minimum effort. This issue gives requirements definition and design specifications for versions 2.1 and 2.1.1, along with documented test scenario environments, and security object design and specifications.

  18. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  19. Effect of intensive epilimnetic withdrawal on phytoplankton community in a (subtropical deep reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Withdrawal is an important process in reservoir hydrodynamics, removing phytoplankton with flushed water. Zooplankton,the grazers of phytoplankton, having longer generation times, are even more susceptible than phytoplankton to flushing loss. Therefore phytoplankton are affected not only by abiotic conditions linked to hydrodynamics but also by zooplankton due to weakened grazing pressure. During the Asian Games (November 12-27, 2010 in Guangzhou, China, two intensive epilimnetic withdrawals were conducted in Liuxihe, a deep canyon-shaped reservoir. To examine the influence of the intensive epilimnetic withdrawals on the phytoplankton community, a seven-week field observation and a hydrodynamic simulation were carried out. The observation was divided in two stages: stage 1 represented partial surface vertical mixing period, and stage 2 represented intensive epilimnetic withdrawal period. It was found that phytoplankton abundance and biomass declined with water temperature and partial surface vertical mixing in stage 1. However, the intensive epilimnetic withdrawal reversed this decreasing trend and increased phytoplankton biomass and abundance in stage 2. Phytoplankton showed a higher rate of composition change in stage 2. A numerical model (DYRESM-CAEDYM simulated scenarios with and without epilimnetic withdrawal to test their effects on abiotic factors (water temperature, suspended sediment and soluble reactive phosphorus for phytoplankton. The results showed no obvious difference in the abiotic factors between the two scenarios during stage 2. We therefore suggested that the abiotic factors in the water column were probably driven by a seasonal pattern, not by epilimnetic withdrawal. It is likely that the intensive epilimnetic withdrawal could remove large crustaceans. The reduced grazing pressure probably explained the increase of phytoplankton biomass and abundance after the withdrawal. Thus, we suggest that reservoir operation should pay

  20. [Research progress on phosphorus budgets and regulations in reservoirs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiao; Li, Xu; Zhang, Wang-shou

    2014-12-01

    Phosphorus is an important limiting factor of water eutrophication. A clear understanding of its budget and regulated method is fundamental for reservoir ecological health. In order to pro- mote systematic research further and improve phosphorus regulation system, the budget balance of reservoir phosphorus and its influencing factors were concluded, as well as conventional regulation and control measures. In general, the main phosphorus sources of reservoirs include upstream input, overland runoff, industrial and domestic wastewater, aquaculture, atmospheric deposition and sediment release. Upstream input is the largest phosphorus source among them. The principal output path of phosphorus is the flood discharge, the emission load of which is mainly influenced by drainage patterns. In addition, biological harvest also can export a fraction of phosphorus. There are some factors affecting the reservoir phosphorus balance, including reservoirs' function, hydrological conditions, physical and chemical properties of water, etc. Therefore, the phosphorus budgets of different reservoirs vary greatly, according to different seasons and regions. In order to reduce the phosphorus loading in reservoirs, some methods are carried out, including constructed wetlands, prefix reservoir, sediment dredging, biomanipulation, etc. Different methods need to be chosen and combined according to different reservoirs' characteristics and water quality management goals. Thus, in the future research, it is reasonable to highlight reservoir ecological characteristics and proceed to a complete and systematic analysis of the inherent complexity of phosphorus budget and its impact factors for the reservoirs' management. Besides, the interaction between phosphorus budget and other nutrients in reservoirs also needs to be conducted. It is fundamental to reduce the reservoirs' phosphorus loading to establish a scientific and improved management system based on those researches.

  1. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  2. Modeling Reservoir-River Networks in Support of Optimizing Seasonal-Scale Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, D. L.; Lowry, T. S.; Bier, A.; Barco, J.; Sun, A.

    2011-12-01

    HydroSCOPE (Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization of Power and the Environment) is a seasonal time-scale tool for scenario analysis and optimization of reservoir-river networks. Developed in MATLAB, HydroSCOPE is an object-oriented model that simulates basin-scale dynamics with an objective of optimizing reservoir operations to maximize revenue from power generation, reliability in the water supply, environmental performance, and flood control. HydroSCOPE is part of a larger toolset that is being developed through a Department of Energy multi-laboratory project. This project's goal is to provide conventional hydropower decision makers with better information to execute their day-ahead and seasonal operations and planning activities by integrating water balance and operational dynamics across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This presentation details the modeling approach and functionality of HydroSCOPE. HydroSCOPE consists of a river-reservoir network model and an optimization routine. The river-reservoir network model simulates the heat and water balance of river-reservoir networks for time-scales up to one year. The optimization routine software, DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications - dakota.sandia.gov), is seamlessly linked to the network model and is used to optimize daily volumetric releases from the reservoirs to best meet a set of user-defined constraints, such as maximizing revenue while minimizing environmental violations. The network model uses 1-D approximations for both the reservoirs and river reaches and is able to account for surface and sediment heat exchange as well as ice dynamics for both models. The reservoir model also accounts for inflow, density, and withdrawal zone mixing, and diffusive heat exchange. Routing for the river reaches is accomplished using a modified Muskingum-Cunge approach that automatically calculates the internal timestep and sub-reach lengths to match the conditions of

  3. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional...

  4. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...... by practicians in relation to the scenarios. The scenario 'Naturalness' requires a change of attitude among food producers and society in general. A big challenge for the Danish food industry is that they must accept that its primary role will change from being an important exporting industry to an industry...

  5. Modeling reservoir geomechanics using discrete element method : Application to reservoir monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alassi, Haitham Tayseer

    2008-09-15

    larger than the P-wave velocity. A Modified Discrete Element Approach is introduced because of limitations imposed by the regular DEM. The modified approach works on clusters made of three elements each. Each cluster behaves like a continuum medium before failure and like a DEM medium after failure. The method is tested using several numerical examples. The modified approach is used to model reservoir geomechanical behavior for two North Sea reservoirs. The first model is based on the Gullfaks field, where fracture development during fluid injection is modeled. Two scenarios are modeled, the first scenario shows a possibility of creating vertical fractures and the second shows the possibility of creating horizontal fractures. The directions of the fractures are mainly sensitive to the initial effective stresses of the reservoir. Based on a Gullfaks 4D seismic s cross-section, the horizontal fractures scenario appears to be a more likely possibility. 2D cross-sections from the Elgin-Franklin field are used to model the effects of fault reactivation on the stress field around a depleted reservoir. A 4D seismic s cross-section for the Elgin-Franklin reservoir is used for comparison. The cross-section shows a possibility of using 4D seismic s data to predict fault reactivation based on velocity changes. We can not, at this stage, rule out that the velocity changes shown on the 4D seismic s cross-section correspond to the stress changes around the reactivated fault obtained from the geomechanical model. (author) 88 refs, figs., tabs

  6. Geothermal Reservoir Technology Research Program: Abstracts of selected research projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, M.J. (ed.)

    1993-03-01

    Research projects are described in the following areas: geothermal exploration, mapping reservoir properties and reservoir monitoring, and well testing, simulation, and predicting reservoir performance. The objectives, technical approach, and project status of each project are presented. The background, research results, and future plans for each project are discussed. The names, addresses, and telephone and telefax numbers are given for the DOE program manager and the principal investigators. (MHR)

  7. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  8. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society......This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...

  9. Food web (bio-)manipulation of South African reservoirs – viable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2006-10-04

    Oct 4, 2006 ... consequences in local reservoirs, although conversely, these are offset by suspended-clay turbidity. ... Keywords: eutrophication, management constraints and options, warm-water reservoirs, biomanipulation, research needs. Introduction ... a collective term to include both conventional algae (photosyn-.

  10. An integrated Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS) to evaluate the ecological effects of alternative flow scenarios on river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Kelly O.; Talbert, Colin B.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Galbraith, Heather S.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Hanson, Leanne; Holmquist-Johnson, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    In regulated rivers, managers must evaluate competing flow release scenarios that attempt to balance both human and natural needs. Meeting these natural flow needs is complex due to the myriad of interacting physical and hydrological factors that affect ecosystems. Tools that synthesize the voluminous scientific data and models on these factors will facilitate management of these systems. Here, we present the Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System (REFDSS), a tool that enables evaluation of competing flow scenarios and other variables on instream habitat. We developed a REFDSS for the Upper Delaware River, USA, a system that is regulated by three headwater reservoirs. This version of the REFDSS has the ability to integrate any set of spatially explicit data and synthesizes modeled discharge for three competing management scenarios, flow-specific 2-D hydrodynamic modeled estimates of local hydrologic conditions (e.g., depth, velocity, shear stress, etc.) at a fine pixel-scale (1 m2), and habitat suitability criteria (HSC) for a variety of taxa. It contains all individual model outputs, computationally integrates these data, and outputs the amount of potentially available habitat for a suite of species of interest under each flow release scenario. Users have the flexibility to change the time period of interest and vary the HSC. The REFDSS was developed to enable side-by-side evaluation of different flow management scenarios and their effects on potential habitat availability, allowing managers to make informed decisions on the best flow scenarios. An exercise comparing two alternative flow scenarios to a baseline scenario for several key species is presented. The Upper Delaware REFDSS was robust to minor changes in HSC (± 10 %). The general REFDSS platform was developed as a user-friendly Windows desktop application that was designed to include other potential parameters of interest (e.g., temperature) and for transferability to other riverine systems.

  11. The Impact of Corps Flood Control Reservoirs in the June 2008 Upper Mississippi Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charley, W. J.; Stiman, J. A.

    2008-12-01

    The US Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for a multitude of flood control project on the Mississippi River and its tributaries, including levees that protect land from flooding, and dams to help regulate river flows. The first six months of 2008 were the wettest on record in the upper Mississippi Basin. During the first 2 weeks of June, rainfall over the Midwest ranged from 6 to as much as 16 inches, overwhelming the flood protection system, causing massive flooding and damage. Most severely impacted were the States of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In Iowa, flooding occurred on almost every river in the state. On the Iowa River, record flooding occurred from Marshalltown, Iowa, downstream to its confluence with the Mississippi River. At several locations, flooding exceeded the 500-year event. The flooding affected agriculture, transportation, and infrastructure, including homes, businesses, levees, and other water-control structures. It has been estimated that there was at least 7 billion dollars in damages. While the flooding in Iowa was extraordinary, Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs helped limit damage and prevent loss of life, even though some reservoirs were filled beyond their design capacity. Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, for example, filled to 135% of its design flood storage capacity, with stage a record five feet over the crest of the spillway. In spite of this, the maximum reservoir release was limited to 39,500 cfs, while a peak inflow of 57,000 cfs was observed. CWMS, the Corps Water Management System, is used to help regulate Corps reservoirs, as well as track and evaluate flooding and flooding potential. CWMS is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data

  12. Reservoir characterization of Pennsylvanian sandstone reservoirs. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelkar, M.

    1995-02-01

    This final report summarizes the progress during the three years of a project on Reservoir Characterization of Pennsylvanian Sandstone Reservoirs. The report is divided into three sections: (i) reservoir description; (ii) scale-up procedures; (iii) outcrop investigation. The first section describes the methods by which a reservoir can be described in three dimensions. The next step in reservoir description is to scale up reservoir properties for flow simulation. The second section addresses the issue of scale-up of reservoir properties once the spatial descriptions of properties are created. The last section describes the investigation of an outcrop.

  13. Oil Reservoir Production Optimization using Optimal Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völcker, Carsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2011-01-01

    Practical oil reservoir management involves solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. In this paper we present a numerical method for solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. The method is a single-shooting method that computes the gradients using the adjo...... reservoir using water ooding and smart well technology. Compared to the uncontrolled case, the optimal operation increases the Net Present Value of the oil field by 10%.......Practical oil reservoir management involves solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. In this paper we present a numerical method for solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. The method is a single-shooting method that computes the gradients using...

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Development of optimal strategies in executive management of special waste resulting from dredging of oil products reservoirs using SWOT and QSPM method in National Iranian Oil Product Distribution Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Abbasi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mismanagement of special wastes can bring about destructive environmental effects. Therefore, development of strategic solutions in this sector requires a special attention. SWOT analysis was benefited from in this research as an instrument for planning special waste management system. In order to achieve an acceptable point in special waste management resulting from dredging of reservoirs, internal and external factors in the company were investigated. Then, optimal strategies were developed and eventually in order to specify the relative attractiveness of the determined strategies, Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM matrix was employed. Based on Internal Factor Evaluation and External Factor Evaluation matrices, it was found that the strong points were more than the weak points, while the available opportunities are less than the threats. Out of the developed strategies, construction of a suitable site to maintain the oily sludges according to environmental requirements are among the top priorities of the strategies.

  17. Intermittent reservoir daily-inflow prediction using lumped and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    cations such as flood control, drought manage- ment, optimal reservoir operation and hydropower generation. There are many studies pertaining to .... est, 49% cultivated area, 6% waste land and 4% of others (CDO 1992). The water spread area at full reservoir level is 115.36 km2 which is about 13% of the total catchment ...

  18. From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

    2018-04-28

    As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. 'explore or not?'; 'open new well or not?'; 'contaminated by water or not?'; 'double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism).This article is part of the theme issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  19. Functional age as an indicator of reservoir senescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Krogman, R. M.

    2015-01-01

    It has been conjectured that reservoirs differ in the rate at which they manifest senescence, but no attempt has been made to find an indicator of senescence that performs better than chronological age. We assembled an indicator of functional age by creating a multimetric scale consisting of 10 metrics descriptive of reservoir environments that were expected to change directionally with reservoir senescence. In a sample of 1,022 U.S. reservoirs, chronological age was not correlated with functional age. Functional age was directly related to percentage of cultivated land in the catchment and inversely related to reservoir depth. Moreover, aspects of reservoir fishing quality and fish population characteristics were related to functional age. A multimetric scale to indicate reservoir functional age presents the possibility for management intervention from multiple angles. If a reservoir is functionally aging at an accelerated rate, action may be taken to remedy the conditions contributing most to functional age. Intervention to reduce scores of selected metrics in the scale can potentially reduce the rate of senescence and increase the life expectancy of the reservoir. This leads to the intriguing implication that steps can be taken to reduce functional age and actually make the reservoir grow younger.

  20. Borehole radar modeling for reservoir monitoring applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miorali, M.; Slob, E.C.; Arts, R.J.

    2010-01-01

    The use of down-hole sensors and remotely controlled valves in wells provide enormous benefits to reservoir management and oil production. We suggest borehole radar measurements as a promising technique capable of monitoring the arrival of undesired fluids in the proximity of production wells. The

  1. Quantification and Multi-purpose Allocation of Water Resources in a Dual-reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salami, Y. D.

    2017-12-01

    Transboundary rivers that run through separate water management jurisdictions sometimes experience competitive water usage. Where the river has multiple existing or planned dams along its course, quantification and efficient allocation of water for such purposes as hydropower generation, irrigation for agriculture, and water supply can be a challenge. This problem is even more pronounced when large parts of the river basin are located in semi-arid regions known for water insecurity, poor crop yields from irrigation scheme failures, and human population displacement arising from water-related conflict. This study seeks to mitigate the impacts of such factors on the Kainji-Jebba dual-reservoir system located along the Niger River in Africa by seasonally quantifying and efficiently apportioning water to all stipulated uses of both dams thereby improving operational policy and long-term water security. Historical storage fluctuations (18 km3 to 5 km3) and flows into and out of both reservoirs were analyzed for relationships to such things as surrounding catchment contribution, dam operational policies, irrigation and hydropower requirements, etc. Optimum values of the aforementioned parameters were then determined by simulations based upon hydrological contributions and withdrawals and worst case scenarios of natural and anthropogenic conditions (like annual probability of reservoir depletion) affecting water availability and allocation. Finally, quantification and optimized allocation of water was done based on needs for hydropower, irrigation for agriculture, water supply, and storage evacuation for flood control. Results revealed that water supply potential increased by 69%, average agricultural yield improved by 36%, and hydropower generation increased by 54% and 66% at the upstream and downstream dams respectively. Lessons learned from this study may help provide a robust and practical means of water resources management in similar river basins and multi-reservoir

  2. Modeling the effect of temperature-control curtain on the thermal structure in a deep stratified reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wei; Lian, Jijian; Yao, Ye; Wu, Mudan; Ma, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Temperature-control curtain (TCC) is an effective facility of selective withdrawal. Previous research has estimated the influence of TCC on the outflow temperature, but its effect on the thermal structure of a reservoir area is unknown, which is crucial to the reservoir ecology. For this purpose, taking the Sanbanxi Reservoir as a case study, a 2-D hydrodynamic and temperature model covering the whole reservoir was built and calibrated to simulate the flow and temperature fields under different TCC scenarios, and the change rules of thermal stability and outflow temperature are obtained. When the water-retaining proportion (P r ) of bottom-TCC increases, the temperature difference between inflow and outflow monotonously decreases, while the thermal stability first increases and later decreases. The maximum thermal stability exists at P r  = 62.5%; it goes against water quality improvement and should be avoided in practice. A bottom-TCC with P r  > 80% is practical for deep reservoirs such as Sanbanxi Reservoir to decrease the temperature difference between inflow and outflow without the increase of thermal stability. In terms of top-TCC, as P r increases, the temperature difference between inflow and outflow monotonously increases and thermal stability decreases. The top-TCCs are recommended when a smaller thermal stability is more preferentially considered than outflow temperature, or a cool outflow in the summer is required for downstream coldwater fishes. In addition, the TCC cannot decrease or increase the outflow temperature all of the time throughout the whole year, and it primarily changes the phase and variation range of the outflow temperature. This study quantitatively estimates the potential effect of TCCs on the thermal structure and water environment management and provides a theoretical basis for the application of TCC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Roderick F.; Galloway, Joel M.; Miller, Lisa D.; Mau, David P.

    2008-01-01

    Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Bureau of Reclamation is working to meet its goal to issue a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the Southern Delivery System project (SDS). SDS is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various EIS alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated water into the reservoir. Plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (water years 2000 through

  4. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  5. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate