Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: silvasf@cdtn.br, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2017-07-01

Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z.

2017-01-01

Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Farquhar, Sebastian; Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this "apples-to-oranges" risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual-comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

Science.gov (United States)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert’s risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public’s risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts’ radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual’s opinions have often exacerbated the public’s confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years’ research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects risk perception of radiation exposure. PMID:28166286

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

1995-01-01

An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

75 FR 53273 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-31

... Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force (ANSTF). The Protocol is available for public review and comment... the draft revised Protocol are available on the ANSTF website, http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php... nonindigenous species (ANS) and is designed to reduce the risk that research activities may cause introduction...

Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pushkina Julia

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of nutritional support for preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk patients: implement now, research later.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2015-04-01

Pressure ulcers are a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and increased healthcare cost. Nutritional support may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in hospitalised patients who are at risk of pressure ulcer and malnutrition. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients, and to assess the value of further research to inform the decision to implement this intervention using value of information analysis (VOI). The analysis was from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia using a decision model with evidence derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Resources were valued using 2014 prices and the time horizon of the analysis was one year. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate net monetary benefits (NB) and to calculate VOI measures. Compared with standard hospital diet, nutritional support was cost saving at AU$425 per patient, and more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$50,000 per QALY, the incremental NB was AU$675 per patient, with a probability of 87 % that nutritional support is cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information was AU$5 million and the expected value of perfect parameter information was highest for the relative risk of developing a pressure ulcer at AU$2.5 million. For a future trial investigating the relative effectiveness of the interventions, the expected net benefit of research would be maximised at AU$100,000 with 1,200 patients in each arm if nutritional support was perfectly implemented. The opportunity cost of withholding the decision to implement the intervention until the results of the future study are available would be AU$14 million. Nutritional support is cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients compared with standard diet. Future research to reduce decision uncertainty is worthwhile; however, given the

Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krywkow, J.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jörg; van der Veen, A.

2007-01-01

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi - criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

2008-01-01

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

2008-01-01

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Seong, Ki Moon; Kwon, TaeWoo; Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert's risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public's risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts' radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual's opinions have often exacerbated the public's confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years' research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects perception of radiation exposure.

75 FR 74007 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-30

... site, http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php . To obtain a hard copy of the Protocol, see Document... aquatic species that are the target of this risk analysis. Language used in the NANPCA differentiates...: http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php Write: Susan Pasko, National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammadioun, B.

1984-11-01

This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented [fr

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Risk - a new field of research?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bechmann, G.

1993-01-01

Risk research is a research activity that hitherto has failed to come up with a standard concept of risk, or theory of risk. The contribution explains three major approaches and basic orientations, which represent a formal and law-oriented approach, a psychological and cognitive approach, and the approach starting from cultural and sociological aspects. (DG) [de

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

A proposed programme for energy risk research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

The report consists of two parts. Part I presents an overview of technological risk management, noting major contributions and current research needs. Part II details a proposed program of energy research, including discussions of some seven recommended projects. The proposed energy risk research program addresses two basic problem areas: improving the management of energy risks and energy risk communication and public response. Specific recommended projects are given for each. (Auth.)

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

Science.gov (United States)

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

2013-06-01

To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubé, Karine; Taylor, Jeff; Sylla, Laurie; Evans, David; Dee, Lynda; Burton, Alasdair; Willenberg, Loreen; Rennie, Stuart; Skinner, Asheley; Tucker, Joseph D; Weiner, Bryan J; Greene, Sandra B

2017-01-01

Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV), biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists. We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory. We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1) Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2) Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3) Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4) PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders. Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers, clinicians

'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Dubé

Full Text Available Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists.We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory.We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1 Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2 Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3 Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4 PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders.Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

A Dual Perspective on Risks and Security Within Research Assistantships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Petrus Rossouw

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Although research assistantships are considered research learning venues in graduate education, there is a scarcity of literature that examines ethical elements attached to the employment of graduate student research assistants or the position of their research supervisors. This article explores the need to implement formal regulations specific to research assistantships in order to increase security and decrease risks for research assistants and research supervisors. Relationships between research assistants and research supervisors have some similarities with regular employment relationships; yet some distinct differences arise due to the educational and developmental nature of research assistantships. The article is written from a dual perspective reflecting the authors’ roles (a research supervisor and a research assistant, respectively and institutional locations (Faculties of Education in South Africa and Canada. The authors draw from existing literature, an analysis of institutional policies and practices at their universities, and their personal and professional experiences to illustrate risks that research assistants and their supervisors may face within research assistantships. They assess the extent to which existing and proposed policies and practices influence working conditions and safeguard experiences within graduate research assistantships. The findings reveal that research assistantships are a unique form of employment focused on educational and professional development that requires specific documentation of expected standards of practice. The authors argue that lack of clear regulations exposes both parties to unnecessary risks and offer recommendations for creating a “Standards of Good Practice” document that will be useful for individuals engaged in research assistantships.

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Science.gov (United States)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Application of adversarial risk analysis model in pricing strategies with remanufacturing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liurui Deng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Purpose: This paper mainly focus on the application of adversarial risk analysis (ARA in pricing strategy with remanufacturing. We hope to obtain more realistic results than classical model. Moreover, we also wish that our research improve the development of ARA in pricing strategy of manufacturing or remanufacturing. Approach: In order to gain more actual research, combining adversarial risk analysis, we explore the pricing strategy with remanufacturing based on Stackelberg model. Especially, we build OEM’s 1-order ARA model and further study on manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategy. Findings: We find the OEM’s 1-order ARA model for the OEM’s product cost C. Besides, we get according manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategies. Besides, the pricing strategies based on 1-order ARA model have advantage over than the classical model regardless of OEMs and remanufacturers. Research implications: The research on application of ARA imply that we can get more actual results with this kind of modern risk analysis method and ARA can be extensively in pricing strategies of supply chain. Value: Our research improves the application of ARA in remanufacturing industry. Meanwhile, inspired by this analysis, we can also create different ARA models for different parameters. Furthermore, some results and analysis methods can be applied to other pricing strategies of supply chain.

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

Science.gov (United States)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Escuder-Bueno

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Social perception risk : evolution of research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prades, A.; Sola, R.

2004-01-01

This article shows an overview of the evolution of a research line: the Social Perception of Risk. It starts with a brief reference to the origin and main results of this research field to focus on the crucial challenges we have to face today. Right now we are witnessing a real turning point which is not exclusive of the radiological risk arena. A genuine social change phenomena is leading us a step forward towards the so called risk Governance. (Author)

Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

1997-07-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

Analysis and research status of severe core damage accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-03-01

The Severe Core Damage Research and Analysis Task Force was established in Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, JAERI, in May, 1982 to make a quantitative analysis on the issues related with the severe core damage accident and also to survey the present status of the research and provide the required research subjects on the severe core damage accident. This report summarizes the results of the works performed by the Task Force during last one and half years. The main subjects investigated are as follows; (1) Discussion on the purposes and necessities of severe core damage accident research, (2) proposal of phenomenological research subjects required in Japan, (3) analysis of severe core damage accidents and identification of risk dominant accident sequences, (4) investigation of significant physical phenomena in severe core damage accidents, and (5) survey of the research status. (author)

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-01-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

2016-07-15

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

The roles of NRC research in risk-informed, performance-based regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, D.L.; Murphy, J.A.; Hodges, M.W.; Cunningham, M.A.; Drouin, M.T.; Ramey-Smith, A.M.; VanderMolen, H.

1997-01-01

The NRC is expanding the use of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) throughout the spectrum of its regulatory activities. The NRC's research program in PRA supports this expansion in a number of ways, from performing basic research to developing guidance for regulatory applications. The author provides an overview of the NRC's PRA research program, then focuses on two key activities - the review of individual plant examinations, and the development of guidance for use of PRA in reactor regulation

Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

Science.gov (United States)

Garland, A.

2015-12-01

The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpersonal amplification of risk? Citizen discussions and their impact on perceptions of risks and benefits of a biological research facility.

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Andrew R; Scheufele, Dietram A; Brossard, Dominique; Gunther, Albert C

2011-02-01

Much risk communication research has demonstrated how mass media can influence individual risk perceptions, but lacks a comprehensive conceptual understanding of another key channel of communication: interpersonal discussion. Using the social amplification of risk as a theoretical framework, we consider the potential for discussions to function as amplification stations. We explore this possibility using data from a public opinion survey of residents living in potential locations for a new biological research facility in the United States. Controlling for a variety of key information variables, our results show that two dimensions of discussion-frequency and valence-have impacts on residents' perceptions of the facility's benefits and its risks. We also explore the possibility that an individual's overall attitude moderates the effect of discussion on their perceptions of risks and benefits. Our results demonstrate the potential for discussions to operate as amplifiers or attenuators of perceptions of both risks and benefits. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

ANALYTICAL ISSUES OF RISK COMMUNICATION. RATIONALE FOR APPROACHES TO DEVELOPING RESEARCH DATABASES ON RADIATION SAFETY AND SOCIAL RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. S. Rekhtina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available One of the important stages of risk communication is the analysis of publications in traditional media and the Internet, which largely shape people’s attitudes to various issues. At the same time, the availability of large amounts of information relating to any subject area complicates the possibility of manual analysis and adequate description of all of the information. On the other hand, the availability of information causes the urgency of developing methods to improve the effectiveness of its analysis. One way to automate the analysis of large amounts of information is the development of databases or automated information systems containing information materials on the subject matter under study and suggesting the possibility of automated processing. The objective of this work is to analyze the experience of developing such systems and databases by the research teams of the St. Petersburg Institute of Radiation Hygiene and St. Petersburg State University and to identify key features of the use of bases Data for social research. The results of the analysis showed that the methodological approaches used were very close. The analysis is performed according to the method of autoethnographical research. The strategy application of the comparative analysis allows identifying common features characterizing the situation of development and implementation of databases to practice of the risk communication studies. The article discusses the features associated with them, the limitations of the primary data, such as text, discursive nature of most of the materials, information noise, high dependence on context, variability, different structure, format and appearance of materials. The important parameters for solving problems of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are given in the article. An important condition of creating effective, from the point of view of socio-communication studies information system is to implement the processing

Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvidsson, Marcus

2011-09-01

External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Managing Risks in SMEs: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiara Verbano

2013-09-01

Full Text Available In times of crisis, companies need to carefully monitor current expenses and forecast potential costs, which could be caused by risky actions. Risk is inherent in all business functions and in every kind of activity. Knowing how to identify risks, attribute a value and a priority scale, design actions and mechanisms to minimize risks, and continuously monitor them, are essential to guarantee companies’ survival and create sustainable value. This is especially true for small- and medium-sized businesses that are most exposed to the harmful effects of the risks, due to limited resources and structural features. The objective of this study is to analyze available literature on the subject of risk management for small- and medium-sized enterprises from 1999 to 2009. The analysis derives interesting characteristics from the scientific studies, highlighting gaps and guidelines for future research.

RESEARCH ON RISK CLASSIFICATION METHOD OF ASSEMBLY OCCUPANCIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Yu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Due to the densely population and mobility characteristics of the crowd, generally accidents happened in assembly occupancies will trigger a chain reaction, and then bring heavy casualties and property loss, and result disastrous consequences. In the context of safety regulation resources limited, building risk classification system of assembly occupancies is important for "scientific predicting, and hierarchical controlling” In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed using MATLAB GUI to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real-time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. Empirical research shows that, the assembly occupancies risk rating model built in this paper has good effectiveness, simplicity and practicability, applies to the government safety regulation and organization safety management, and can improve the safety situation of assembly occupancies effectively.

NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene

Science.gov (United States)

... News From NIH NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene Past Issues / Summer 2006 Table of Contents For ... and Alcoholism (NIAAA) have identified a previously unknown gene variant that doubles an individual's risk for obsessive- ...

Risk for Researchers Studying Social Deviance or Criminal Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia L. Brougham

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Researchers often encounter dangerous situations while conducting social research. The concept of risk to researchers refers to the possible harm that may occur to researchers while in the field or after leaving a research project. This study explores issues experienced by social scientists engaged in research on social deviance or criminal behavior. The goal of this research was to discover the types of risk experienced by social scientists and any mediating factors affecting the experience of risk. An online survey was conducted to gather data on issues experienced by social scientists. This study found that researchers experienced a variety of risks within the categories of physical/health, emotional, legal, and personal/professional. Each of the survey options for risk were reported by at least one respondent; however, the greatest number of risks reported were of an emotional or personal/professional nature. There were no mediating factors found to be significant in relation to the experience of risk. This was a surprising finding especially for the variable of gender as it is suggested that gender plays a role in the experience of difficulties.

Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

McComas, Katherine A

2006-01-01

Ten years ago, scholars suggested that risk communication was embarking on a new phase that would give increased attention to the social contexts that surround and encroach on public responses to risk information. A decade later, many researchers have answered the call, with several defining studies examining the social and psychological influences on risk communication. This article reviews risk communication research appearing in the published literature since 1996. Among studies, social trust, the social amplification of risk framework, and the affect heuristic figured prominently. Also common were studies examining the influence of risk in the mass media. Among these were content analyses of media coverage of risk, as well as investigations of possible effects resulting from coverage. The use of mental models was a dominant method for developing risk message content. Other studies examined the use of risk comparisons, narratives, and visuals in the production of risk messages. Research also examined how providing information about a risk's severity, social norms, and efficacy influenced communication behaviors and intentions to follow risk reduction measures. Methods for conducting public outreach in health risk communication rounded out the literature.

Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

2017-06-01

For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

1988-01-01

The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

Data at Risk and Research Libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhury, S.

2017-12-01

Research libraries have recently engaged in data rescue events amidst growing concerns about access to federal data sets. While these efforts are well intentioned, libraries run the risk of ignoring a long established history of activities and accomplishments by other communities focused on data at risk, many of which are represented at forums such as AGU. Under the auspices of the Data Conservancy, the Sheridan Libraries at Johns Hopkins University hosted an event in July 2017 that convened members of various communities including ESIP, RDA, Data Rescue Boulder, Association of Research Libraries, the Fedora repository platform, the Open Science Framework and the Interplanetary File System or IPFS (via the Data Together Network). This group identified a potential role for research libraries to partner with existing players in the data at risk community by focusing on a distributed preservation network as part of a coordinated collection development program. This session will offer an opportunity to hear about this potential role for research libraries and to provide feedback about its viability and utility.

Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

CERN Document Server

Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

2015-01-01

This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1991-01-01

There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Drug utilization research and risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mazzaglia, Giampiero; Mol, Peter G. M.; Elseviers, Monique; Wettermark, Björn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Andersen, Morten; Benko, Ria; Bennie, Marion; Eriksson, Irene; Godman, Brian; Krska, Janet; Poluzzi, Elisabetta; Taxis, Katja; Vlahovic-Palcevski, Vera; Stichele, Robert Vander

2016-01-01

Good risk management requires continuous evaluation and improvement of planned activities. The evaluation impact of risk management activities requires robust study designs and carefully selected outcome measures. Key learnings and caveats from drug utilization research should be applied to the

The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

2011-01-01

The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

2016-04-01

The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

Risk as a target of safety research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger, W.

1986-01-01

Job creation is not the idea behind the demand for risk studies to be intensified in safety research. Risks are not only a target safety research should investigate, they are a subject that actually can be most adequately investigated by safety research. Assuming a neutral position between irrational fears and interest-minded problem minimization, that is the central approach and the ethics of a safety scientist. The Babylonian confusion of terminology experienced after the Chernobyl accident is a good example proving the necessity of fostering the neutral professionalism in safety research. (orig./DG) [de

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Center for risk research: A review of work 1988-1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeberg, L.

1992-01-01

This report gives a summary of the research published during the first 4 years of the Center for Risk Research at the Stockholm School of Economics. Risk research carried out so far at the Center has been concerned with mapping of attitudes and risk perceptions with regard to nuclear risks, AIDS, military flight risks, and economic risks. There has also been some methodological work and some work on the relationship between risk perception and interests

Center for risk research: A review of work 1988-1991

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sjoeberg, L

1992-01-01

This report gives a summary of the research published during the first 4 years of the Center for Risk Research at the Stockholm School of Economics. Risk research carried out so far at the Center has been concerned with mapping of attitudes and risk perceptions with regard to nuclear risks, AIDS, military flight risks, and economic risks. There has also been some methodological work and some work on the relationship between risk perception and interests.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

2009-01-01

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

PRA research and the development of risk-informed regulation at the U.S. nuclear regulatory commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, Nathan; Collins, Dorothy

2008-01-01

Over the years, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) research activities conducted at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have played an essential role in support of the agency's move towards risk-informed regulation. These research activities have provided the technical basis for NRC's regulatory activities in key areas; provided PRA methods, tools, and data enabling the agency to meet future challenges; supported the implementation of NRC's 1995 PRA Policy Statement by assessing key sources of risk; and supported the development of necessary technical and human resources supporting NRC's risk-informed activities. PRA research aimed at improving the NRC's understanding of risk can positively affect the agency's regulatory activities, as evidenced by three case studies involving research on fire PRA, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) PRA. These case studies also show that such research can take a considerable amount of time, and that the incorporation of research results into regulatory practice can take even longer. The need for sustained effort and appropriate lead time is an important consideration in the development of a PRA research program aimed at helping the agency address key sources of risk for current and potential future facilities

Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wingender, H.J.

1978-01-01

Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI). Strategic research agenda for low dose radiation risk research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kreuzer, M. [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, BfS, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Neuherberg (Germany); Auvinen, A. [University of Tampere, Tampere (Finland); STUK, Helsinki (Finland); Cardis, E. [ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona (Spain); Durante, M. [Institute for Fundamental Physics and Applications, TIFPA, Trento (Italy); Harms-Ringdahl, M. [Stockholm University, Centre for Radiation Protection Research, Stockholm (Sweden); Jourdain, J.R. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, IRSN, Fontenay-aux-roses (France); Madas, B.G. [MTA Centre for Energy Research, Environmental Physics Department, Budapest (Hungary); Ottolenghi, A. [University of Pavia, Physics Department, Pavia (Italy); Pazzaglia, S. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy); Prise, K.M. [Queens University Belfast, Belfast (United Kingdom); Quintens, R. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium); Sabatier, L. [French Atomic Energy Commission, CEA, Paris (France); Bouffler, S. [Public Health England, PHE, Chilton (United Kingdom)

2018-03-15

MELODI (Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative) is a European radiation protection research platform with focus on research on health risks after exposure to low-dose ionising radiation. It was founded in 2010 and currently includes 44 members from 18 countries. A major activity of MELODI is the continuous development of a long-term European Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) on low-dose risk for radiation protection. The SRA is intended to identify priorities for national and European radiation protection research programs as a basis for the preparation of competitive calls at the European level. Among those key priorities is the improvement of health risk estimates for exposures close to the dose limits for workers and to reference levels for the population in emergency situations. Another activity of MELODI is to ensure the availability of European key infrastructures for research activities, and the long-term maintenance of competences in radiation research via an integrated European approach for training and education. The MELODI SRA identifies three key research topics in low dose or low dose-rate radiation risk research: (1) dose and dose rate dependence of cancer risk, (2) radiation-induced non-cancer effects and (3) individual radiation sensitivity. The research required to improve the evidence base for each of the three key topics relates to three research lines: (1) research to improve understanding of the mechanisms contributing to radiogenic diseases, (2) epidemiological research to improve health risk evaluation of radiation exposure and (3) research to address the effects and risks associated with internal exposures, differing radiation qualities and inhomogeneous exposures. The full SRA and associated documents can be downloaded from the MELODI website (http://www.melodi-online.eu/sra.html). (orig.)

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

CERN Document Server

Willmot, Gordon E

2017-01-01

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Analysis and Machine Learning in Cerebral Palsy Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jing

2017-01-01

Cerebral palsy (CP), a common pediatric movement disorder, causes the most severe physical disability in children. Early diagnosis in high-risk infants is critical for early intervention and possible early recovery. In recent years, multivariate analytic and machine learning (ML) approaches have been increasingly used in CP research. This paper aims to identify such multivariate studies and provide an overview of this relatively young field. Studies reviewed in this paper have demonstrated that multivariate analytic methods are useful in identification of risk factors, detection of CP, movement assessment for CP prediction, and outcome assessment, and ML approaches have made it possible to automatically identify movement impairments in high-risk infants. In addition, outcome predictors for surgical treatments have been identified by multivariate outcome studies. To make the multivariate and ML approaches useful in clinical settings, further research with large samples is needed to verify and improve these multivariate methods in risk factor identification, CP detection, movement assessment, and outcome evaluation or prediction. As multivariate analysis, ML and data processing technologies advance in the era of Big Data of this century, it is expected that multivariate analysis and ML will play a bigger role in improving the diagnosis and treatment of CP to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, and enhance patient care for children with CP.

Cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors: an evolutionary concept analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vo JB

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Jacqueline B Vo,1 Timiya S Nolan,1 David E Vance,1 Patricia A Patrician,2 Karen Meneses1 1Office of Research and Scholarship, 2Department of Family, Community Health, and Systems, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Nursing, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: More than 3.5 million breast cancer survivors are living in the US, and the overall five-year survival rate is approaching 90%. With increased survival and cancer treatment-related cardiotoxicities, there has been a rise in cardiovascular diseases among breast cancer survivors. Yet, cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors has not been well conceptualized. The purpose of this article was to analyze and define the concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. Methods: The databases CINAHL, EMBASE, and PubMed were used to identify articles that explored cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. The search yielded 357 articles, which were reviewed for eligibility. Thirty articles were selected based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors was analyzed using Rodgers’ evolutionary concept analysis method. Results: The analysis suggests that cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors consists of several attributes: cancer treatment (chemotherapy, targeted therapies, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy, modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity, poor diet, and smoking, and nonmodifiable risk factors (age, family history, and race. The antecedent identified includes breast cancer diagnosis and the consequence identified includes the development of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Findings suggest the need for increased education and understanding of ­cardiovascular disease risk among health care providers and patients. Survivorship care plans can incorporate cardiovascular disease risk monitoring and screening. Future research

Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

2014-08-01

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

Europe at risk (Following EU-Funded Research on Hazard and Risks)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Delmonaco, G.; Atun, F.; Ceudech, A.; Deeming, H.; Roo, A.P.J. de; Lumbroso, D.; Galderisi, A.; Kallache, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Kundak, S.; Molinari, D.; Tweed, F.; Wade, S.; Walker, G.; Dandoulaki, M.; Barredo, J.

2011-01-01

This chapter regarding present risk conditions, has been structured using significant “images” of Europe, addressing the hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors recognised as crucial components of any risk assessment. To draw such a picture, results of past research at the European level were

Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans [European Commission, Brussels (Belgium). DG Research

2001-07-01

Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable.

Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

2001-01-01

Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable

The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.

1996-01-01

Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Valdir Maciel; Agostinho Angelo Sordi, Gian Maria; Moralles, Mauricio; Filho, Tufic Madi

2012-06-01

This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64.

A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopes, V. M.; Sordi, G. M. A. A.; Moralles, M.; Filho, T. M.

2012-01-01

This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64. (authors)

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cloninger, T.H.

1997-01-01

This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

1994-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

1993-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaute Wangen

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

2011-01-01

National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

Multivariate Analysis and Machine Learning in Cerebral Palsy Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Cerebral palsy (CP, a common pediatric movement disorder, causes the most severe physical disability in children. Early diagnosis in high-risk infants is critical for early intervention and possible early recovery. In recent years, multivariate analytic and machine learning (ML approaches have been increasingly used in CP research. This paper aims to identify such multivariate studies and provide an overview of this relatively young field. Studies reviewed in this paper have demonstrated that multivariate analytic methods are useful in identification of risk factors, detection of CP, movement assessment for CP prediction, and outcome assessment, and ML approaches have made it possible to automatically identify movement impairments in high-risk infants. In addition, outcome predictors for surgical treatments have been identified by multivariate outcome studies. To make the multivariate and ML approaches useful in clinical settings, further research with large samples is needed to verify and improve these multivariate methods in risk factor identification, CP detection, movement assessment, and outcome evaluation or prediction. As multivariate analysis, ML and data processing technologies advance in the era of Big Data of this century, it is expected that multivariate analysis and ML will play a bigger role in improving the diagnosis and treatment of CP to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, and enhance patient care for children with CP.

Principles, application areas and an example of risk assessment conducted at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greiner, Matthias; Paisley, Larry; Nørgaard, Julie Hostrup

2004-01-01

The Department for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) is concerned with risk analyses in the areas of food safety, zoo noses, antimicrobial resistance and OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) list A and B diseases. The DFVF...... is responsible for the risk assessment component of the risk analysis process and provides advice and support for the risk management and risk communication component, which is generally under the auspices of the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration (DVFA). The paper presents guidelines for the conduct...

Analysis of the effect of corporate governance attributes on risk management practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raef Gouiaa

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Despite recent increased risk research attention being focussed on the Canadian and international scene, there are few research studies that specifically address the relation between corporate governance systems and risk management practices. This paper examines the relation between corporate governance systems and enterprise risk management. More specifically, we analyze how corporate governance attributes and particularly board characteristics can affect risk management practices in the context of Canadian listed companies. Using a content analysis approach, the level of exposure to risk in terms of likelihood, the consequences of such risk and the strategies for managing that risk were identified for each type of risk. The results reveal that corporate governance attributes related to board’s structure, directors’ characteristics and the board's operating process play a significant and important role in establishing an integrative risk management approach. The results show that directors’ characteristics and the board's process significantly determine the quality of risk management through the level of risk-taking in decisions, especially in terms of financial risks.

2013 Nutrition Risk Research Plan Review Final Report. Research Plan Review for: The Risk Factor of Inadequate Nutrition

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

The 2013 Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) was impressed by the degree of progress the nutrition discipline has made with the research plan presented since the 2012 Nutrition Risk SRP WebEx/teleconference. The scientists and staff associated with the nutrition discipline have, in addition, continued their impressive publication track record. Specifically the SRP found that the novel and important progress in the ocular health research area (Gap N7.3) represents an important advance in understanding the etiology and potential countermeasures for this condition and thinks that the work will not only be valuable for vision, but may have implications for cardiovascular health, as well. The SRP also considered the bone countermeasure data presented a potentially valuable tool for investigating bone metabolism under the unique conditions of space travel, specifically the innovation of variable use of stable Ca isotopes for bone synthesis and equal contribution for bone to investigate bone metabolism, as well as, the impact of the advanced resistive exercise device (ARED) on body composition during spaceflight. Finally, the SRP considers the planned Integrated Nutrition task to be an important and necessary strategic part of the research plan. The SRP is concerned that the risks observed in previous research on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) may not capture all the risks of longer duration flight beyond LEO. In particular, the SRP believes that there may be a much greater likelihood of an intensified chronic inflammatory response compared to the very minimal evidence seen to date and that modest effects seen in LEO, such as the reduction in appetite, may not predict an absence in longer duration flight out of LEO. The added complications of longer duration flight, greater bio-behavioral stress, radiation exposure, poorer communication, and inability to respond to unforeseen exigencies may create different risks. Thus, preparation for

Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1985-01-01

The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

A practical approach to risk-benefit estimation in pediatric drug research.

Science.gov (United States)

Koren, Gideon

2015-02-01

One of the most difficult challenges in pediatric drug research is in exposing children to risk, often without a balanced chance of benefits. While the concept of risk is similar in adult research, the adult patient can decide for himself/herself on an acceptable level of risk, whereas children have to accept the decisions of their guardians. This paper attempts to put the complexities of estimating risk in pediatric drug research into their practical perspective, and to familiarize the reader with the way such processes are conducted in different parts of the world. Although there are regional differences, all authorities typically quantify risks of pediatric research in general, and drug research in particular, in three levels: those experienced in day-to-day life; risks slightly above this 'baseline' risk; and risks substantially above 'baseline risk'. Proportionally, the diligence of the ethics process depends on these levels, as well as on the potential benefits (or lack of) to the child involved in the research. Importantly, risk is context dependent, and a particular intervention may be effective or safe in one setting but not in another, based on local experience, staffing levels, and similar variabilities.

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-15

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

2018-01-01

The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Blöchl

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraass, B.

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

Solar Market Research and Analysis | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Analysis Solar Market Research and Analysis Through rigorous data collection, analysis, and stakeholder engagement, NREL's Solar Market Research and Analysis efforts further solar technologies' role in solar panels. Key areas for NREL's solar market research and analysis portfolio include the following

THE EVOLUTION OF RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: CHANGES IN KNOWLEDGE MAPS

OpenAIRE

Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

2017-01-01

One of the leading trends in modern academic research is risk management. Over the years, the approach to risk management has changed and affected many different areas. This study aims to investigate changes in risk management and trends of risk management in the past 20 years. Risk management related publications from 1990 to 2016 were retrieved from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. VOS viewer software was used to analyse the research trend. Literature growth related to risk manageme...

Analysis of Risks Generated by Suppliers During the Period of Economic Fluctuations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karla Jurásková

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine one group of supply chain risks, namely the current risks generated by the suppliers and their relations to the position of companies in the supply chain and the current economic fluctuations, as well as to gain the knowledge on how to mitigate these risks, including the cooperation between the partners. The research was conducted in two stages by means of a questionnaire analysis and follow-up of multiple case studies. The surveys used have registered certain signals showing increasing dependence on the suppliers, deepening imbalances in the supply chains and decreasing opportunities of reducing the presence of risks. The surveys have also detected tendencies leading to structural measures strengthening resilience of the supply chain. The areas for further research of supply chains risks and risks management are formulated based on the acquired findings.

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

Risk and Representation in Research Ethics: The NunatuKavut Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunger, Fern; Russell, Todd

2015-10-01

This article examines Canadian policy governing the ethics of research involving Indigenous communities. Academics and community members collaborated in research to examine how best to apply the Tri-Council Policy Statement guidelines in a community with complex and multiple political and cultural jurisdictions. We examined issues of NunatuKavut (Southern Inuit) authority and representation in relation to governance of research in a context where community identity is complex and shifting, and new provincial legislation mandates centralized ethics review. We describe the politics of risk--the ways in which collective identity and research risks are co-constructed. Our case study illustrates that collective consent to research must emphasize shifting identity construction in relation to the particular risks and benefits invoked by the research question, to ascertain with which groups or individuals the negotiation of risk should take place in the first place. We conclude by describing a necessary re-imagining of policy governing research ethics involving Indigenous communities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Analysis of radiological risks in biological research centers english

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usera, F.; Hidalgo, R.M.; Macias, M.T.

1998-01-01

The work identifies the amount by which pollution and irradiation risks affect the staff. This was done in order to prevent them and also to establish the most adequate means and methodology for their reduction. For that, we have given priority to determine whether the staff applies in a correct way specific protection means available. And also, if they know the risks to which they are exposed taking into account methods they employ

Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

-tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

Analysis of research ethics board approval times in an academic department of medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsang, Teresa S M; Jones, Meaghan; Meneilly, Graydon S

2015-04-01

As part of an ongoing effort to better understand barriers to academic research, we reviewed and analyzed the process of research ethics applications, focusing on ethics approval time, within the Department of Medicine from 2006 to 2011. A total of 1,268 applications for approval to use human subjects in research were included in our analysis. Three variables, risk category (minimal vs. non-minimal risk), type of funding, and year of submission, were statistically significant for prediction of ethics approval time, with risk status being the most important of these. The covariate-adjusted mean time for approval for minimal risk studies (35.7 days) was less than half that of non-minimal risk protocols (76.5 days). Studies funded through a for-profit sponsor had significantly longer approval times than those funded through other means but were also predominantly (87%) non-minimal risk protocols. Further investigations of the reasons underlying the observed differences are needed to determine whether improved training for research ethics board (REB) members and/or greater dialogue with investigators may reduce the lengthy approval times associated with non-minimal risk protocols. © The Author(s) 2015.

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Odds versus risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Pramesh, C. S.

2015-01-01

In biomedical research, we are often interested in quantifying the relationship between an exposure and an outcome. “Odds” and “Risk” are the most common terms which are used as measures of association between variables. In this article, which is the fourth in the series of common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we explain the meaning of risk and odds and the difference between the two. PMID:26623395

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-08-01

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey; Smith, Curtis; Groth, Katrina

2015-01-01

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

Geotechnical approach for occupational safety risk analysis of critical slope in open pit mining as implication for earthquake hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Munirwansyah; Irsyam, Masyhur; Munirwan, Reza P.; Yunita, Halida; Zulfan Usrina, M.

2018-05-01

Occupational safety and health (OSH) is a planned effort to prevent accidents and diseases caused by work. In conducting mining activities often occur work accidents caused by unsafe field conditions. In open mine area, there is often a slump due to unstable slopes, which can disrupt the activities and productivity of mining companies. Based on research on stability of open pit slopes conducted by Febrianti [8], the Meureubo coal mine located in Aceh Barat district, on the slope of mine was indicated unsafe slope conditions, it will be continued research on OSH for landslide which is to understand the stability of the excavation slope and the shape of the slope collapse. Plaxis software was used for this research. After analyzing the slope stability and the effect of landslide on OSH with Job Safety Analysis (JSA) method, to identify the hazard to work safety, risk management analysis will be conducted to classified hazard level and its handling technique. This research aim is to know the level of risk of work accident at the company and its prevention effort. The result of risk analysis research is very high-risk value that is > 350 then the activity must be stopped until the risk can be reduced to reach the risk value limit < 20 which is allowed or accepted.

Reduce the risk of stock trading by using technical analysis in iran's ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reduce the risk of stock trading by using technical analysis in iran's stock market. ... In this research, efficiency of 50 active companies of Tehran Stock ... With this observation, this research suggest forming a portfolio with zero cost by purchasing ... FAQ's · More about AJOL · AJOL's Partners · Terms and Conditions of Use ...

On the use of the hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roed, Willy; Mosleh, Ali; Vinnem, Jan Erik; Aven, Terje

2009-01-01

In the Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry risk analyses have been used to provide decision support for more than 20 years. The focus has traditionally been on the planning phase, but during the last years a need for better risk analysis methods for the operational phase has been identified. Such methods should take human and organizational factors into consideration in a more explicit way than the traditional risk analysis methods do. Recently, a framework, called hybrid causal logic (HCL), has been developed based on traditional risk analysis tools combined with Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), using the aviation industry as a case. This paper reviews this framework and discusses its applicability for the offshore industry, and the relationship to existing research projects, such as the barrier and operational risk analysis project (BORA). The paper also addresses specific features of the framework and suggests a new approach for the probability assignment process. This approach simplifies the assignment process considerably without loosing the flexibility that is needed to properly reflect the phenomena being studied

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Safety Analysis Report: X17B2 beamline Synchrotron Medical Research Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gmuer, N.F.; Thomlinson, W.

1990-02-01

This report contains a safety analysis for the X17B2 beamline synchrotron medical research facility. Health hazards, risk assessment and building systems are discussed. Reference is made to transvenous coronary angiography

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Austrian Research Centers activities in energy risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sdouz, Gert

1998-01-01

Among the institutions involved in energy analyses in Austria the risk context is being treated by three different entities: the Energy Consumption Agency, internationally known as EVA, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency, or Urnweltbundesarnt assessing mainly the environmental risks involved and the Austrian Research Centers, working on safety and risk evaluation. The Austrian Research Center Seibersdorf draws form its proficiency in Reactor Safety and Fusion Research, two fields of experience it has been involved in since its foundation, for some 40 years now. Nuclear energy is not well accepted by the Austrian population. Therefore in our country only energy systems with advanced safety level might be accepted in the far future. This means that the development of methods to compare risks is an important task. The characteristics of energy systems featuring advanced safety levels are: A very low hazard potential and a focus on deterministic safety instead of probabilistic safety, meaning to rely on inherently safe physics concepts, confirmed by probabilistic safety evaluation results. This can be achieved by adequate design of fusion reactors, advanced fission reactors and all different renewable sources of energy

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Analysis of cancer mortality risk among workers of a research uranium metallurgy division in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jejati, H.; Laurier, D.; Tirmarche, M.; Giraud, J.M.

1997-01-01

This cohort study has been undertaken in response to a suspected cluster of cancers mentioned by workers involved in research activities concerning the metallurgy of uranium. The studied population included all persons having worked between 1950 and 1968 at the Metallurgy Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). Exposures were registered on an individual annual basis. For analysis, they were grouped in three categories: use of chemicals agents (Benzene, beryllium, alcohols, solvents ...), manipulation of radioactive materials (uranium, thorium, fission decay products), and exposure to external radiation. This relatively small cohort included 356 workers followed up to December 1990. Out of observed deaths, 21 were from cancer. Total mortality from cancer was less than expected from national rates (Standardised Mortality Ratio = 0.73). Cancer mortality did not increase with duration of exposure to external radiation or with duration of manipulation of radioactive materials. Risk of cancer was increasing with the number of years of exposure to chemicals. The small size of this cohort limits the conclusion of the observed results. The purpose, despite this lack of power, was to answer a worry of the workers, more than to estimate a clear dose-response relationship linked to a specific cancer site. The effect studied here is ''all cancers'', a distinction of the different sites being uninformative because of the very small number of cases observed. Nevertheless, this study suggests some routes for further research: it highlights the importance of considering concomitant exposures like chemical ones in studies of nuclear workers. (author)

Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

2010-01-01

To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Precarious beginnings: Gendered risk discourses in psychiatric research literature about postpartum depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Godderis, Rebecca

2010-09-01

The transition to motherhood in western society is particularly informed by risk-based scientific and medical discourses and, as a result, women are especially subject to rationalities and practices that are employed in the name of risk. The aim of this article is to examine the gendered risk discourses that are embedded in one aspect of medicalized mothering - the postpartum period. This article interrogates three key elements of the discursive construction of postpartum depression (PPD) in contemporary psychiatric research literature (approximately 1980-2007). Specifically, I examine how risk-based reasoning is incorporated into the concepts of the postpartum triad and the high-risk mother, and how arguments about why PPD is a 'significant social problem' create a tension between the rights of the mother and those of the child. By placing women in a position to manage certain types of risks related to the postpartum period, these discourses serve to responsibilize women and structure their subjectivities in gendered ways.This analysis contributes to a growing literature that investigates how assumptions about gender, race, class and sexuality are produced and re-produced through the notion of risk.

Adaptive Failure Identification for Healthcare Risk Analysis and Its Application on E-Healthcare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuo-Chung Chu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To satisfy the requirement for diverse risk preferences, we propose a generic risk priority number (GRPN function that assigns a risk weight to each parameter such that they represent individual organization/department/process preferences for the parameters. This research applies GRPN function-based model to differentiate the types of risk, and primary data are generated through simulation. We also conduct sensitivity analysis on correlation and regression to compare it with the traditional RPN (TRPN. The proposed model outperforms the TRPN model and provides a practical, effective, and adaptive method for risk evaluation. In particular, the defined GRPN function offers a new method to prioritize failure modes in failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA. The different risk preferences considered in the healthcare example show that the modified FMEA model can take into account the various risk factors and prioritize failure modes more accurately. In addition, the model also can apply to a generic e-healthcare service environment with a hierarchical architecture.

Solar Market Research and Analysis Projects | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Market Research and Analysis Projects Solar Market Research and Analysis Projects Solar market research and analysis efforts at NREL seek to further solar technologies' role in supporting a more . Midscale Commercial Market Solar Analysis NREL experts are providing analysis to expand the midscale solar

Meta-analysis on shift work and risks of specific obesity types.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, M; Feng, W; Wang, F; Li, P; Li, Z; Li, M; Tse, G; Vlaanderen, J; Vermeulen, R; Tse, L A

2018-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the associations between shift work patterns and risks of specific types of obesity. PubMed was searched until March 2017 for observational studies that examined the relationships between shift work patterns and obesity. Odds ratio for obesity was extracted using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup meta-analyses were carried out for study design, specific obesity types and characteristics of shift work pattern. A total of 28 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The overall odds ratio of night shift work was 1.23 (95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.29) for risk of obesity/overweight. Cross-sectional studies showed a higher risk of 1.26 than those with the cohort design (risk ratio = 1.10). Shift workers had a higher frequency of developing abdominal obesity (odds ratio = 1.35) than other obesity types. Permanent night workers demonstrated a 29% higher risk than rotating shift workers (odds ratio 1.43 vs. 1.14). This meta-analysis confirmed the risks of night shift work for the development of overweight and obesity with a potential gradient association suggested, especially for abdominal obesity. Modification of working schedules is recommended, particularly for prolonged permanent night work. More accurate and detailed measurements on shift work patterns should be conducted in future research. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

ANALYSIS MODELS OF THE BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIA’S ENERGY SECTOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIRON VASILE CRISTIAN IOACHIM

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The risk, as a concept found in the economic sphere of business represents an analysis area often approached by researchers from the finance and accounting field. Although it is often seen, along with cost-effectiveness and value, as a fundamental element of finance (Stancu, I., 2007, the risk has often facets that make it useful also in analyzing other sides of the economic sphere of business, such as financial position and economic performance of it. From these meanings, we believe that the most suitable for this purpose is the one through which it is analyzed the ability of an entity to avoid bankruptcy. The present study has as main objectives the presentation of bankruptcy risk of an entity from a theoretical point of view and the analysis (from an empirical and comparative point of view through the scoring method of the implementation of various models for analyzing the risk of bankruptcy (Altman, Conan-holder, Taffler, Robertson in Romania’s energy sector, in order to issue an opinion regarding the optimal method for analyzing the bankruptcy risk in the energy sector. The results show that there are significant differences regarding the analysis of the bankruptcy risk through the appliction of different models, proposing the Conan-Holder model as the most appropriate for this sector.

Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

Redefining risk research priorities for nanomaterials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders; Owen, R.

2010-01-01

Chemical-based risk assessment underpins the current approach to responsible development of nanomaterials (NM). It is now recognised, however, that this process may take decades, leaving decision makers with little support in the near term. Despite this, current and near future research efforts...

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

Solar Market Research and Analysis Publications | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Market Research and Analysis Publications Solar Market Research and Analysis Publications NREL researchers and analysts publish a variety of documents related to solar market research and analysis achieving the SETO 2030 residential PV cost target of $0.05 /kWh by identifying and quantifying cost

Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Yaghoubpour

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

2017-11-01

The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

Euratom Research Contributing to Better Risk Governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

2003-01-01

Over the past decade, greater attention has increasingly been given to broader, less technical, issues in determining the scope and content of research carried out under the auspices of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) Framework Programmes. This reflects a more general trend, in particular a need for research to take due account of the ethical, social, legal, regulatory and wider cultural aspects resulting from the development and exploitation of its outcomes. These considerations are fully embedded within the 61 Framework Programme and are matters which must be explicitly addressed by most projects. The increasing importance of these aspects is exemplified by the inclusion in the 6th Framework Programme of 'science and society' and 'citizens and governance in a knowledge based society' as two of its priorities. The paper summarises Euratom research being carried out in the 5th Framework Programme that addresses broader, less technical, issues in particular those that are concerned with better approaches to risk governance and broader stakeholder involvement or participation. This research is mainly being carried out in the areas of radioactive waste management and the management of nuclear emergencies but is complemented by research of a more general nature concerned with risk governance. Further research in these areas will continue in the 61 Frarnework Programme with increasing attention given to how it can be practically exploited

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

2005-05-01

This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research

Divorce and Death: A Meta-Analysis and Research Agenda for Clinical, Social, and Health Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sbarra, David A; Law, Rita W; Portley, Robert M

2011-09-01

Divorce is a relatively common stressful life event that is purported to increase risk for all-cause mortality. One problem in the literature on divorce and health is that it is fragmented and spread across many disciplines; most prospective studies of mortality are based in epidemiology and sociology, whereas most mechanistic studies are based in psychology. This review integrates research on divorce and death via meta-analysis and outlines a research agenda for better understanding the potential mechanisms linking marital dissolution and risk for all-cause mortality. Random effects meta-analysis with a sample of 32 prospective studies (involving more than 6.5 million people, 160,000 deaths, and over 755,000 divorces in 11 different countries) revealed a significant increase in risk for early death among separated/divorced adults in comparison to their married counterparts. Men and younger adults evidenced significantly greater risk for early death following marital separation/divorce than did women and older adults. Quantification of the overall effect size linking marital separation/divorce to risk for early death reveals a number of important research questions, and this article discusses what remains to be learned about four plausible mechanisms of action: social selection, resource disruptions, changes in health behaviors, and chronic psychological distress. © Association for Psychological Science 2011.

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Covello, V.T.

1984-01-01

The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

Occlusal caries risk assessment using Cariogram analysis in student aged 11-12 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riana Wardani

2017-03-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT   Introduction: Basic Health Research 2013 showed Dental Caries Index in school age student in West Java was lower than the expected target, with occlusal surface as most affected part. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk status of dental caries in school age student by using cariogram analysis. Methods: Observational research. Study was conducted on 30 student aged 11-12 years with caries high risk on occlusal surfaces. Purposive sampling was taken from students of SDN Cikawari and SDN Mekarjaya Bandung Regency with high DMF-S index. Inclusion criteria: male and female, aged 11-12 years, good systemic health, SDN Mekarjaya and SDN Cikawari Bandung Regency students. Exclusion criteria: suffering from systemic disorder, currently in long-term antibiotic therapy, orthodontic appliance usage. Case history, eating habits and intake of fluoride, caries experience, salivary volume and buffering capacity of each sample was examined using cariogram examination method. Results: The cariogram analysis showed 43% chance of caries avoidance. Diet control was 23.3%, includes two factors: sugary foods and eating frequency. Bacteria control was 11.9% by evaluating both bacterial factors (the amount of plaque and the bacteria Streptococcus mutans. Vulnerability control was 14.4%, including caries prevention by the continuation of fluorine program and other conditions control that affect salivary secretions. Conclusion: Based on cariogram analysis found that all samples who had occlusal surfaces caries were at a high risk category, but still having moderate potential of avoiding new caries occurrence by controlling risk factors. Keywords: Cariogram analysis, Occlusal caries, Aged 11-12 years

Clinical governance and research ethics as barriers to UK low-risk population-based health research?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas Flora

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Since the Helsinki Declaration was introduced in 1964 as a code of practice for clinical research, it has generally been agreed that research governance is also needed in the field of public health and health promotion research. Recently, a range of factors led to the development of more stringent bureaucratic procedures, governing the conduct of low-risk population-based health research in the United Kingdom. Methods Our paper highlights a case study of the application process to medical research ethics committees in the United Kingdom for a study of the promotion of physical activity by health care providers. The case study presented here is an illustration of the challenges in conducting low-risk population-based health research. Results Our mixed-methods approach involved a questionnaire survey of and semi-structured interviews with health professionals (who were all healthy volunteers. Since our study does not involve the participation of either patients or the general population, one would expect the application to the relevant research ethics committees to be a formality. This proved not to be the case! Conclusion Research ethics committees could be counter-productive, rather than protecting the vulnerable in the research process, they can stifle low-risk population-based health research. Research ethics in health services research is first and foremost the responsibility of the researcher(s, and we need to learn to trust health service researchers again. The burden of current research governance regulation to address the perceived ethical problems is neither appropriate nor adequate. Senior researchers/academics need to educate and train students and junior researchers in the area of research ethics, whilst at the same time reducing pressures on them that lead to unethical research, such as commercial funding, inappropriate government interference and the pressure to publish. We propose that non-invasive low-risk

Operator reliability study for Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an operating research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamed, F.; Hassan, A.; Yahaya, R.; Rahman, I.; Maskin, M.; Praktom, P.; Charlie, F.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) for Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is performed on research nuclear reactor. • Implemented qualitative HRA framework is addressed. • Human Failure Events of significant impact to the reactor safety are derived. - Abstract: A Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) for the TRIGA Mark II research reactor of Malaysian Nuclear Agency has been developed to evaluate the potential risk in its operation. In conjunction to this PSA development, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is performed in order to determine human contribution to the risk. The aim of this study is to qualitatively analyze human actions (HAs) involved in the operation of this reactor according to the qualitative part of the HRA framework for PSA which is namely the identification, qualitative screening and modeling of HAs. By performing this framework, Human Failure Events (HFEs) of significant impact to the reactor safety are systematically analyzed and incorporated into the PSA structure. A part of the findings in this study will become the input for the subsequent quantitative part of the HRA framework, i.e. the Human Error Probability (HEP) quantification

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Non-Modifiable Risk Factors among Women in Southeast Asia: A Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nindrea, Ricvan Dana; Aryandono, Teguh; Lazuardi, Lutfan

2017-12-28

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine breast cancer risk from modifiable and non-modifiable factors among women in Southeast Asia. Methods: This meta-analysis was performed on research articles on breast cancer risk factors in PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO databases published between 1997 and October 2017. Pooled odds ratios (OR) are calculated using fixed and random-effect models. Data were processed using Review Manager 5.3 (RevMan 5.3). Results: From a total of 1,211 articles, 15 studies (1 cohort and 14 case control studies) met the criteria for systematic review. Meta-analysis results showed that of the known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer, parity (nulipara) had the highest odd ratio (OR = 1.85 [95% CI 1.47-2.32]) followed by body mass index (overweight) (OR = 1.61 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and use of oral contraceptives (OR = 1.27 [95% CI 1.07-1.51]). Of non-modifiable risk factors, family history of breast cancer had the highest odd ratio (OR = 2.53 [95% CI 1.25-5.09]), followed by age (≥ 40 years) (OR = 1.53 [95% CI 1.34-1.76]) and menopausal status (OR = 1.44 [95% CI 1.26-1.65]). Conclusion: This analysis confirmed associations between both modifiable risk factors (parity, body mass index and use of oral contraceptives) and non-modifiable risk factors (family history of breast cancer, age and menopausal status) with breast cancer. Creative Commons Attribution License

Radon risk communication research: Practical lessons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

1990-01-01

Those responsible for state and local radon programs often express frustration about the small share of homes that have been tested for radon, and the small share of those with high readings that have been mitigated. There are now a number of completed studies that have examined how well alternative ways of communicating about radon risk have accomplished the goals of motivating appropriate testing and mitigation. This paper summarizes the research results that are most crucial for planning and implementing effective radon risk communication programs. We identify six reasons why people do not respond to radon as a serious threat and provide some remedies suggested by radon studies

"There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep

2016-07-01

Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

Plasma urate concentration and risk of coronary heart disease: a Mendelian randomisation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

White, Jon; Sofat, Reecha; Hemani, Gibran; Shah, Tina; Engmann, Jorgen; Dale, Caroline; Shah, Sonia; Kruger, Felix A; Giambartolomei, Claudia; Swerdlow, Daniel I; Palmer, Tom; McLachlan, Stela; Langenberg, Claudia; Zabaneh, Delilah; Lovering, Ruth; Cavadino, Alana; Jefferis, Barbara; Finan, Chris; Wong, Andrew; Amuzu, Antoinette; Ong, Ken; Gaunt, Tom R; Warren, Helen; Davies, Teri-Louise; Drenos, Fotios; Cooper, Jackie; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A; Talmud, Philippa J; Humphries, Steve E; Power, Christine; Hypponen, Elina; Richards, Marcus; Hardy, Rebecca; Kuh, Diana; Wareham, Nicholas; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Day, Ian N; Whincup, Peter; Morris, Richard; Strachan, Mark W J; Price, Jacqueline; Kumari, Meena; Kivimaki, Mika; Plagnol, Vincent; Whittaker, John C; Smith, George Davey; Dudbridge, Frank; Casas, Juan P; Holmes, Michael V; Hingorani, Aroon D

2016-01-01

Summary Background Increased circulating plasma urate concentration is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease, but the extent of any causative effect of urate on risk of coronary heart disease is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to clarify any causal role of urate on coronary heart disease risk using Mendelian randomisation analysis. Methods We first did a fixed-effects meta-analysis of the observational association of plasma urate and risk of coronary heart disease. We then used a conventional Mendelian randomisation approach to investigate the causal relevance using a genetic instrument based on 31 urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). To account for potential pleiotropic associations of certain SNPs with risk factors other than urate, we additionally did both a multivariable Mendelian randomisation analysis, in which the genetic associations of SNPs with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides were included as covariates, and an Egger Mendelian randomisation (MR-Egger) analysis to estimate a causal effect accounting for unmeasured pleiotropy. Findings In the meta-analysis of 17 prospective observational studies (166 486 individuals; 9784 coronary heart disease events) a 1 SD higher urate concentration was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for coronary heart disease of 1·07 (95% CI 1·04–1·10). The corresponding OR estimates from the conventional, multivariable adjusted, and Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis (58 studies; 198 598 individuals; 65 877 events) were 1·18 (95% CI 1·08–1·29), 1·10 (1·00–1·22), and 1·05 (0·92–1·20), respectively, per 1 SD increment in plasma urate. Interpretation Conventional and multivariate Mendelian randomisation analysis implicates a causal role for urate in the development of coronary heart disease, but these estimates might be inflated by hidden pleiotropy. Egger Mendelian randomisation analysis, which accounts for

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON "OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ASIA RISK MANAGEMENT"

OpenAIRE

DESHENG DASH WU; DAVID L. OLSON; LUIS A. SECO; JOHN BIRGE

2011-01-01

Risks are traditionally defined as the combination of probability and severity, but are actually characterized by additional factors. We believe the characteristics of risks include uncertainties, dynamics, dependence, clusterings and complexities, which motivate the utilization of various operational research tools. The objective of this issue is to survey the practice of using operational research tools in risk management, especially Asian risk management.

Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

1994-01-01

This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Independent Risk Factors Contributing to Acute Kidney Injury According to Updated Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 Criteria After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: A Meta-analysis and Meta-regression of 13 Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jiayang; Yu, Wenyuan; Zhou, Ye; Yang, Yong; Li, Chenglong; Liu, Nan; Hou, Xiaotong; Wang, Longfei

2017-06-01

This study aimed to examine the risk factors for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) according to the AKI definition from the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 (VARC-2). A meta-analysis. A total of 661 patients with post-TAVI AKI according to the VARC-2 definition and 2,012 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Patients undergoing TAVI were included in this meta-analysis. Multiple electronic databases were searched using predefined criteria. The diagnosis of AKI was based on the VARC-2 classification. The authors found that preoperative New York Heart Association class IV (odds ratio [OR], 7.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.81-15.85), previous chronic renal disease (CKD) (OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.96-4.03), and requirement for transfusion (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.59-2.59) were associated significantly with an increased risk for post-TAVI AKI. Furthermore, previous peripheral vascular disease (PVD), hypertension, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and stroke were also risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. Additionally, transfemoral access significantly correlated with a reduced risk for post-TAVI AKI (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.33-0.57). The potential confounders, including Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, aortic valve area, mean pressure gradient, left ventricular ejection fraction, age, body mass index, contrast volume, and valve type, had no impact on the association between the risk factors and post-TAVI AKI. Subgroup analysis of the eligible studies presenting multivariate logistic regression analysis on the independent risk factors for post-TAVI AKI revealed that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access were independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. The current meta-analysis suggested that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access may be independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI

EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petru STEFEA

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

Risk analysis of warehouse operation in a power plant through a Modified FMEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indrawati Sri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, electricity becomes basic needs for human’s life sustainability. Most of activities require electricity. Some power plant are demanded to be able to fulfil above necessity by distributing electricity as it required within time. Therefore, to accommodate good performance, it needs assessment on risk analysis, specifically at the warehousing division. A risk analysis is needed for assuring a good performance warehouse. A Modified FMEA method is used to analyse the risk. This method id done by identifying sources and root causes of a problem based on the value of risk priority number (RPN. The research is conducted in an Indonesian power plant, located in West Java. There are 10 types of failure modes. The result shows that the failure mode priority is inventory discrepancies. There are no difference ranking on the most impacted failure to be prioritized using FMEA and modified FMEA method.

Risk Evaluation for Identification and Intervention in Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) for International Biological R&D Activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hoffman, Matthew John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Caskey, Susan A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Arguello, Bryan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chavez, Lozanne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pierson, Adam J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lopez, Elizabeth [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Davis, Chad E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-09-01

This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.

Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moayeri A

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Ardeshir Moayeri,1 Mahmoud Mohamadpour,2 Seyedeh Fatemeh Mousavi,3 Ehsan Shirzadpour,2 Safoura Mohamadpour,3 Mansour Amraei4 1Department of Anatomy, 2Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, 3Department of Epidemiology, Prevention of Psychosocial Injuries Research Center, 4Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran Aim: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors.Methods: Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1 and STATA (version 11.1.Results: Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06 and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy.Conclusion: Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. Keywords: diabetes mellitus, fractures, bone, osteoporosis, risk factors, meta-analysis

A qualitative study on acceptable levels of risk for pregnant women in clinical research.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Zande, Indira S E; van der Graaf, Rieke; Oudijk, Martijn A; van Delden, Johannes J M

2017-05-15

There is ambiguity with regard to what counts as an acceptable level of risk in clinical research in pregnant women and there is no input from stakeholders relative to such research risks. The aim of our paper was to explore what stakeholders who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women deem an acceptable level of risk for pregnant women in clinical research. Accordingly, we used the APOSTEL VI study, a low-risk obstetrical randomised controlled trial, as a case-study. We conducted a prospective qualitative study using 35 in-depth semi-structured interviews and one focus group. We interviewed healthcare professionals, Research Ethics Committee members (RECs) and regulators who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women, in addition to pregnant women recruited for the APOSTEL VI case-study in the Netherlands. Three themes characterise the way stakeholders view risks in clinical research in pregnant women in general. Additionally, one theme characterises the way healthcare professionals and pregnant women view risks with respect to the case-study specifically. First, ideas on what constitutes an acceptable level of risk in general ranged from a preference for zero risk for the foetus up to minimal risk. Second, the desirability of clinical research in pregnant women in general was questioned altogether. Third, stakeholders proposed to establish an upper limit of risk in potentially beneficial clinical research in pregnant women in order to protect the foetus and the pregnant woman from harm. Fourth and finally, the case-study illustrates that healthcare professionals' individual perception of risk may influence recruitment. Healthcare professionals, RECs, regulators and pregnant women are all risk adverse in practice, possibly explaining the continuing underrepresentation of pregnant women in clinical research. Determining the acceptable levels of risk on a universal level alone is insufficient

Risk Management Analysis on the Car Drivers in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Kuntohadi, Hendro; Pahala, Yosi; Sitanggang, Rohana

2015-01-01

Car drivers in Indonesia will always face many kinds of risks. This research contains the context determination of this research, identifies all the significant risks, measures the frequency and impact of all the risks, draws all the identified risks in the chart, and describes how to manage or mitigate the risks. The dangerous risks which have high frequency and high impact are: 1) Many car drivers get the driving license without taking a driving course and without learning carefully the the...

The risk-benefit task of research ethics committees: An evaluation of current approaches and the need to incorporate decision studies methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernabe Rosemarie D L C

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Research ethics committees (RECs are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a trial. Currently, two procedure-level approaches are predominant, the Net Risk Test and the Component Analysis. Discussion By looking at decision studies, we see that both procedure-level approaches conflate the various risk-benefit tasks, i.e., risk-benefit assessment, risk-benefit evaluation, risk treatment, and decision making. This conflation makes the RECs’ risk-benefit task confusing, if not impossible. We further realize that RECs are not meant to do all the risk-benefit tasks; instead, RECs are meant to evaluate risks and benefits, appraise risk treatment suggestions, and make the final decision. Conclusion As such, research ethics would benefit from looking beyond the procedure-level approaches and allowing disciplines like decision studies to be involved in the discourse on RECs’ risk-benefit task.

Using Enterprise Architecture for Analysis of a Complex Adaptive Organization's Risk Inducing Characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salguero, Laura Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huff, Johnathon [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Matta, Anthony R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Collins, Sue S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-08-01

Sandia National Laboratories is an organization with a wide range of research and development activities that include nuclear, explosives, and chemical hazards. In addition, Sandia has over 2000 labs and over 40 major test facilities, such as the Thermal Test Complex, the Lightning Test Facility, and the Rocket Sled Track. In order to support safe operations, Sandia has a diverse Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) organization that provides expertise to support engineers and scientists in performing work safely. With such a diverse organization to support, the ES&H program continuously seeks opportunities to improve the services provided for Sandia by using various methods as part of their risk management strategy. One of the methods being investigated is using enterprise architecture analysis to mitigate risk inducing characteristics such as normalization of deviance, organizational drift, and problems in information flow. This paper is a case study for how a Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) model of the ES&H enterprise, including information technology applications, can be analyzed to understand the level of risk associated with the risk inducing characteristics discussed above. While the analysis is not complete, we provide proposed analysis methods that will be used for future research as the project progresses.

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Off-Shore Wind Energy Project’s Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The benefits of wind power can solve the issue of growing power consumption with insufficient distribution facilities. Based on an extensive research on more than 20 studies, this study explores the risks associated with off-shore wind energy in Persian Gulf in Iran. This paper tries to identify the risks in related off-shore wind energy project, in order to specify which variables have the most impact on project by qualitative analysis through application of the impact and the possibility of every risk. A survey was conducted in order to determine the relative importance of variables and risks. Certain key components in completion of the project should be taken into account such as technology, research team, expert teams (personnel that have a good knowledge of this industry, and choosing the right spot where the wind farms will be located. The objective of this paper is to present the variables encountered in wind power project and to highlight the risks that must be controlled by the project developers, project team, supply chain actors, manufacturers, and all the stockholders involved in successful completion of a project.

Risk management in higher education and research in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Helsloot, I.; Jong, W

2006-01-01

This study examines risk in higher education and research on the basis of a classification into three domains. The practical utility of this division into three domains is that it makes it easier to see what risks are unique to higher education (custodianship of knowledge), what risks are dependent

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Using research for successful Medicare and Medicaid risk marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, S; Nelson, A M; Wood, S D

1996-01-01

Medicare/Medicaid risk marketing is a vital business challenge, one that countless managed care organizations are facing right now. Early entry into new markets and aggressive participation in existing markets are essential to meet competitive pressures. Health plans intent on success in government risk programs should conduct research to learn the medical needs, wants, and desires of older persons in the geographic area they serve. Original, market-specific research yields critical marketing and clinical data that can be used to improve care and member satisfaction along with customer loyalty and retention.

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Communicating Risks and Benefits in Informed Consent for Research: A Qualitative Study

Science.gov (United States)

Nusbaum, Lika; Douglas, Brenda; Damus, Karla; Paasche-Orlow, Michael; Estrella-Luna, Neenah

2017-01-01

Multiple studies have documented major limitations in the informed consent process for the recruitment of clinical research participants. One challenging aspect of this process is successful communication of risks and benefits to potential research participants. This study explored the opinions and attitudes of informed consent experts about conveying risks and benefits to inform the development of a survey about the perspectives of research nurses who are responsible for obtaining informed consent for clinical trials. The major themes identified were strategies for risks and benefits communication, ensuring comprehension, and preparation for the role of the consent administrator. From the experts’ perspective, inadequate education and training of the research staff responsible for informed consent process contribute to deficiencies in the informed consent process and risks and benefits communication. Inconsistencies in experts’ opinions and critique of certain widely used communication practices require further consideration and additional research. PMID:28975139

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit (RMIA ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Jean-Claude Dumais

2012-09-12

Sep 12, 2012 ... Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit (RMIA). Deadline: 12 ... management, internal control, and governance processes. ... identifying competencies, key success factors or performance indicators most critical.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Maternal periodontal disease and risk of preeclampsia: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xi; Wang, Juan; Liu, Jian; Hua, Li; Zhang, Dan; Hu, Ting; Ge, Zi-Li

2014-10-01

Research on the association between maternal periodontal disease and the risk of preeclampsia has generated inconsistent results. This meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between maternal periodontal disease and the risk of preeclampsia. A literature search of PubMed and Embase was performed to identify relevant papers published before March 2013. Only observational studies that assessed maternal periodontal disease and the risk of preeclampsia were selected. Patients' periodontal status was examined at different time points during pregnancy or after delivery (at 14-32 weeks of gestation, within 48 h prior to or within 5 days after delivery). Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for cases and controls. Cases were defined as women with concurrent hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks of gestation. Eleven studies involving 1118 women with preeclampsia and 2798 women without preeclampsia were identified and analyzed. Women with periodontal disease before 32 weeks of gestation had a 3.69-fold higher risk of developing preeclampsia than their counterparts without periodontal disease (OR=3.69; 95% CI=2.58-5.27). Periodontal disease within 48 h prior to delivery was associated with a 2.68-fold higher risk of preeclampsia (OR=2.68; 95% CI=1.39-5.18). Pregnant women with periodontal disease within 5 days after delivery had a 2.22-fold higher risk of preeclampsia than women without periodontal disease (OR=2.22; 95% CI=1.16-4.27). In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests that maternal periodontal disease is an independent predictor of preeclampsia.

Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

2007-11-01

According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

Risk assessment - a research program aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindahl-Kiessling, K.; Ahlborg, U.; Bylin, G.; Ehrenberg, L.; Hemminki, K.; Lindell, B.; Nilsson, Robert; Bostroem, C.E.; Swarn, U.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a new research program for assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants. It is important to develop general methods for quantitative risk assessments and to improve the scientific base materials. (KAE)

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Lycopene Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xin; Yang, Hui-Hui; Liu, Yan; Zhou, Quan; Chen, Zi-Hua

2016-10-01

A number of epidemiological studies have explored the association between lycopene or lycopene-rich food intake and the risk of colorectal cancer, but the results of these studies have not been consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in the PubMed and EMBASE databases to quantitatively assess the association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the summary relative risk (RR) for highest versus lowest category indicated no significant association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer [RR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-1.10]. However, a significant inverse association was observed between lycopene consumption and the site of cancer in the colon (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81-0.96). We also found that the incidence of colon cancer and lycopene intake did not exhibit dose-response relationships. The Grades of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) quality in our study was very low. In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that lycopene consumption is not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Further research will be needed in this area to provide conclusive evidence.

Statistical Analysis of Research Data | Center for Cancer Research

Science.gov (United States)

Recent advances in cancer biology have resulted in the need for increased statistical analysis of research data. The Statistical Analysis of Research Data (SARD) course will be held on April 5-6, 2018 from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. at the National Institutes of Health's Natcher Conference Center, Balcony C on the Bethesda Campus. SARD is designed to provide an overview on the general principles of statistical analysis of research data.  The first day will feature univariate data analysis, including descriptive statistics, probability distributions, one- and two-sample inferential statistics.

Factors influencing parents' decision to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Linda A; Pearce, Margaret M

2014-11-01

To examine factors that influence a parent's decision to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research. Grounded theory, using semi-structured interviews conducted with 35 postpartum mother or mother-father dyads in an urban teaching hospital. Data were collected from July 2011 to January 2012. Audiorecorded semistructured interviews were conducted in private rooms with mothers or mother-father dyads 24 to 48 hr after the birth of their healthy, full-term infant. Data-driven content analysis using selected principles of grounded theory was performed. Parents' willingness to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk pediatric genetic research emerged as a process involving three interacting components: the parents, the scientist, and the comfort of the child embedded within the context of benefit to the child. The purpose of the study and parents' perception of their commitment of time and resources determined their willingness to participate. The scientist's ability to communicate trust in the research process influenced parents' decisions. Physical discomfort of the child shaped parents' decision to donate DNA. Parental perception of a direct benefit to their child affected their willingness to discuss genetic research and its outcomes. Significant gaps and misunderstandings in parental knowledge of pediatric genetic research may affect parental willingness to donate their healthy child's DNA. Nurses knowledgeable about the decision-making process parents utilize to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research and the factors influencing that decision are well positioned to educate parents about the role of genetics in health and illness and reassure potential research participants of the value and safeguards in pediatric genetic research. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

2017-06-01

This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; Pdiabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

Current products and future plan of regulatory research for risk-informed regulation in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung, Key Yong; Lee, Chang Ju; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

2003-01-01

The first phase of a regulatory research project for risk-informed regulation (RIR) and applications (RIA) was finished in March of 2002. Various results that could be useful for preparing Korean RIR system have been developed. One of the remarkable outputs is development of reactor safety goals and acceptance criteria for RIR and RIA in Korea. The Safety Goal has a 4-tier hierarchical structure and each tier has specified goals classified for their usage. Regulatory review guides for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) including level-1, level-2 and low power and shutdown PSA have been updated by reflecting new information obtained from not only the overseas documents but also experience and insights from regulatory review in Korea. In addition, draft regulatory guides for risk-informed in-service inspection, in-service testing, importance ranking of motor-operated valves, and AOT/STI change of Technical Specifications have been developed for preparing ongoing and future licensing work. Risk-based inspection guides with inspection items selected from a viewpoint of risk importance have been suggested for Korean standard NPPs as well. In the second phase of a research project (April of 2002 to March of 2005), two regulatory research projects on RIR were initiated. One is a study on institutionalization of risk-informed and performance-based regulation. Main topics of this project are evaluation of benefit and characteristics of RIR, development of optimized Korean RIR model, impact analysis for the change of current regulation framework, and suggestion of RIR-related laws and rules. The other is focusing on the development in the areas of a regulatory audit PSA model and regulatory guides for risk monitoring, and application techniques of risk information to the significance determination of plant performance indicators and inspection findings. It is expected that a concrete scheme and detailed regulatory techniques for embodiment of RIR system in Korea will be

Statistical models for competing risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sather, H.N.

1976-08-01

Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

2014-11-03

Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

An empirical analysis of communication flow, strategy and stakeholders' participation in the risk communication literature 1988-2000

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gurabardhi, Z.; Gutteling, Jan M.; Kuttschreuter, M.

2005-01-01

Risk communication during the years has shown its vitality and has proved its importance as a field of research. This article provides a brief record of the development of risk communication in the environmental and technological domain by examining some of the trends resulting from the analysis of

HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

1995-12-31

In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

Application of classification algorithms for analysis of road safety risk factor dependencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Oh Hoon; Rhee, Wonjong; Yoon, Yoonjin

2015-02-01

Transportation continues to be an integral part of modern life, and the importance of road traffic safety cannot be overstated. Consequently, recent road traffic safety studies have focused on analysis of risk factors that impact fatality and injury level (severity) of traffic accidents. While some of the risk factors, such as drug use and drinking, are widely known to affect severity, an accurate modeling of their influences is still an open research topic. Furthermore, there are innumerable risk factors that are waiting to be discovered or analyzed. A promising approach is to investigate historical traffic accident data that have been collected in the past decades. This study inspects traffic accident reports that have been accumulated by the California Highway Patrol (CHP) since 1973 for which each accident report contains around 100 data fields. Among them, we investigate 25 fields between 2004 and 2010 that are most relevant to car accidents. Using two classification methods, the Naive Bayes classifier and the decision tree classifier, the relative importance of the data fields, i.e., risk factors, is revealed with respect to the resulting severity level. Performances of the classifiers are compared to each other and a binary logistic regression model is used as the basis for the comparisons. Some of the high-ranking risk factors are found to be strongly dependent on each other, and their incremental gains on estimating or modeling severity level are evaluated quantitatively. The analysis shows that only a handful of the risk factors in the data dominate the severity level and that dependency among the top risk factors is an imperative trait to consider for an accurate analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

Risk-based security cost-benefit analysis: method and example applications - 59381

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyss, Gregory; Hinton, John; Clem, John; Silva, Consuelo; Duran, Felicia A.

2012-01-01

Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: Decision makers wish to use risk-based cost-benefit analysis to prioritize security investments. However, understanding security risk requires estimating the likelihood of attack, which is extremely uncertain and depends on unquantifiable psychological factors like dissuasion and deterrence. In addition, the most common performance metric for physical security systems, probability of effectiveness at the design basis threat [P(E)], performs poorly in cost-benefit analysis. It is extremely sensitive to small changes in adversary characteristics when the threat is near a systems breaking point, but very insensitive to those changes under other conditions. This makes it difficult to prioritize investment options on the basis of P(E), especially across multiple targets or facilities. To overcome these obstacles, a Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development project has developed a risk-based security cost-benefit analysis method. This approach characterizes targets by how difficult it would be for adversaries to exploit each targets vulnerabilities to induce consequences. Adversaries generally have success criteria (e.g., adequate or desired consequences and thresholds for likelihood of success), and choose among alternative strategies that meet these criteria while considering their degree of difficulty in achieving their successful outcome. Investments reduce security risk as they reduce the severity of consequences available and/or increase the difficulty for an adversary to successfully accomplish their most advantageous attack

Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Analysis of researchers' implication in a research-intervention in the Stork Network: a tool for institutional analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Fortuna, Cinira Magali; Mesquita, Luana Pinho de; Matumoto, Silvia; Monceau, Gilles

2016-09-19

This qualitative study is based on institutional analysis as the methodological theoretical reference with the objective of analyzing researchers' implication during a research-intervention and the interferences caused by this analysis. The study involved researchers from courses in medicine, nursing, and dentistry at two universities and workers from a Regional Health Department in follow-up on the implementation of the Stork Network in São Paulo State, Brazil. The researchers worked together in the intervention and in analysis workshops, supported by an external institutional analysis. Two institutions stood out in the analysis: the research, established mainly with characteristics of neutrality, and management, with Taylorist characteristics. Differences between researchers and difficulties in identifying actions proper to network management and research were some of the interferences that were identified. The study concludes that implication analysis is a powerful tool for such studies.

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

One exhibition, many goals. Combining scientific research and risk communication

Science.gov (United States)

Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Mostert, Erik

2015-04-01

How effective is visual communication to increase awareness of natural hazards and risks? To answer this research question, we developed a research design that was at the same time an experimental setting and an actual communication effort. Throughout the full length of the 2-years project held in the Ubaye valley (southeastern France), we collaborated with local and regional stakeholders (politicians and technicians). During a consultation phase, the communication context was determined, the audience of the project was defined and finally the testing activity-communication effort was determined. We were offered the opportunity to design an exhibition for the local public library. In a consultation phase that corresponded to the design of the exhibition, the stakeholders contributed to its content as well as helping with the funding of the exhibition. Finally, during the experimentation phase, the stakeholders participated in advertising the activity, gathering of participants and designing the scientific survey. In order to assess the effects of the exhibition on risk awareness, several groups of children, teenagers and adults were submitted to a research design, consisting of 1) a pre-test, 2) the visit of the exhibition and 3) a post-test similar to the pre-test. In addition, the children answered a second post-test 3 months after the visit. Close ended questions addressed the awareness indicators mentioned in the literature, i.e. worry level, previous experiences with natural hazards events, exposure to awareness raising, ability to mitigate/respond/prepare, attitude to risk, and demographics. In addition, the post-test included several satisfaction questions concerning the visual tools displayed in the exhibition. A statistical analysis of the changes between the pre- and post- tests (paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and bootstrapping) allowed to verify whether the exhibition had an impact on risk awareness or not. In order to deduce which variable

Depression and cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Y; Li, F; Liu, Y F; Zhao, J P; Leng, M M; Chen, L

2017-08-01

To assess the associations between depression and incident cancer risk. Systematic review and meta-analysis. The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, MEDLINE, and PubMed databases were searched to identify studies. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Risk ratios (RRs) were used to measure effect size. A random-effects model was applied to synthesize the associations between depression and cancer risk. A forest plot was produced to visually assess RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity across studies was assessed using the I-squared statistic. A funnel plot was generated to assess potential publication bias, and Egger's regression was applied to test the symmetry of the funnel plot. In total, 1,469,179 participants and 89,716 incident cases of cancer from 25 studies were included. Depression was significantly associated with overall cancer risk (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.22) and with liver cancer (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01-1.43) and lung cancer (RR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.04-1.72). Subgroup analysis of studies in North America resulted in a significant summary relative risk (RR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.15-1.48). No significant associations were found for breast, prostate, or colorectal/colon cancer. The average Newcastle Ottawa score was 7.56 for all included studies. Our findings showed a small and positive association between depression and the overall occurrence risk of cancer, as well as liver cancer and lung cancer risks. However, multinational and larger sample studies are required to further research and support these associations. Moreover, confounding factors such as cigarette smoking and alcohol use/abuse should be considered in future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries.

Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan

2016-01-01

In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries

Analysis on Risk Factors of Nosocomial Infection in Orthopedic Patients and Research on Nursing Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Zhitao

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Orthopedic patients mostly comprise traumatic patients and elderly or sick individuals. More patients with emergency surgery suffer from open wounds and serious pollution, and operation time is relatively long. Thus, orthopedic patients with surgical incision infection account for a large proportion of incidence of hospital infection. Orthopedic patients are also bedridden for long periods, and they receive poor bone tissue blood supply. In surgical incision infections, mild cases suffer from delayed wound healing, whereas severe cases can form osteomyelitis. This study reviews progress of research on risk factors of nosocomial infection among orthopedic patients in recent years.

Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

1987-01-01

Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Non-performing loans and systemic risk: comparative analysis of Serbia and countries in transition CESEE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlastimir Vukovic

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of the research on the impact of non-performing loans to the systemic risk in the domestic banking system and a comparison with other countries in transition, as well as on certain EU countries. It is important to metion that the extreme bank-centricity caused the extension of the analysis to the entire financial sector of Serbia. Therefore, macroeconomic and macro-financial component of systemic risk were separated. In order to more precisely determine the main effects of non-performing loans in the propagation of systemic risk, the authors have created and used two new synthetic indicators in the research. The first is the macroeconomic contagion with non-performing loans (problematic loans expressed as a percentage of GDP, and the second is the infection of financial sector with non-performing loans (the proportional share of these loans in the assets of the financial sector. Analysis of the period just before and during the current financial crisis and the recession (2007-2012 showed that the NPLs (non-performing loans are the main generator of systemic risk in the financial and real sectors of Serbia. In addition, the survey results show that the applied synthetic indicators measure total system risk and its basic components more accurately then the analytical, which have only been in use until now. Comparative analysis showed similar results, not only in the countries in transition, but also in developed ones. The results of this study provide guidance and represent an important input for economic policymakers, because the systemic risk is the greatest immediate threat to economic prosperity and financial stability of each country

Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

Science.gov (United States)

Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

2017-11-01

In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

CERN Document Server

Harrison, A

2007-01-01

The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

European Social Work Research Association SIG to Study Decisions, Assessment, and Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Brian; Killick, Campbell; Bertotti, Teresa; Enosh, Guy; Gautschi, Joel; Hietamäki, Johanna; Sicora, Alessandro; Whittaker, Andrew

2018-01-01

The increasing interest in professional judgement and decision making is often separate from the discourse about "risk," and the time-honored focus on assessment. The need to develop research in and across these topics was recognized in the founding of a Decisions, Assessment, and Risk Special Interest Group (DARSIG) by the European Social Work Research Association in 2014. The Group's interests include cognitive judgements; decision processes with clients, families, other professionals and courts; assessment tools and processes; the assessment, communication, and management of risk; and legal, ethical, and emotional aspects of these. This article outlines the founding and scope of DARSIG; gives an overview of decision making, assessment, and risk for practice; illustrates connections between these; and highlights future research directions. Professional knowledge about decision making, assessment, and risk complements knowledge about effectiveness of interventions. DARSIG promises to be a useful mechanism for the purpose.

Non-animal approaches for consumer safety risk assessments: Unilever's scientific research programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmichael, Paul; Davies, Michael; Dent, Matt; Fentem, Julia; Fletcher, Samantha; Gilmour, Nicola; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Merolla, Leona; Pease, Camilla; Reynolds, Fiona; Westmoreland, Carl

2009-12-01

Non-animal based approaches to risk assessment are now routinely used for assuring consumer safety for some endpoints (such as skin irritation) following considerable investment in developing and applying new methods over the past 20 years. Unilever's research programme into non-animal approaches for safety assessment is currently focused on the application of new technologies to risk assessments in the areas of skin allergy, cancer and general toxicity (including inhalation toxicity). In all of these areas, a long-term investment is essential to increase the scientific understanding of the underlying biological and chemical processes that we believe will ultimately form a sound basis for novel risk assessment approaches. Our research programme in these priority areas consists of in-house research as well as Unilever-sponsored academic research, involvement with EU-funded projects (e.g. Sens-it-iv, carcinoGENOMICS), participation in cross-industry collaborative research (e.g. COLIPA, EPAA) and ongoing involvement with other scientific initiatives on non-animal approaches to risk assessment (e.g. UK NC3Rs, US 'Human Toxicology Project' consortium). 2009 FRAME.

Flood Risk Analysis in Denpasar City, Bali, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Kusmiyarti, T. B.; Wiguna, P. P. K.; Ratna Dewi, N. K. R.

2018-02-01

Denpasar city is a Capital City of Bali Province and one of the leading tourist destinations in Indonesia. Denpasar area is relatively flat with high rain fall intensity with the domince of settlement. This makes Denpasar City becomes prone area of flood. The aim of this research is to find out the spatial distribution flood hazard and the risk of population which are affected to the flood hazard. Weighting, scoring and overlaying method were used in this research. Six indicators were used to analyze the flood hazard: landuse, rainfall, type of soil, slope, altitute and drainage density. The vulnerability is analyzed per Desa or Kelurahan (Rustic/Neighborhood) with the indicator of age, education and population density. Risk was calculated by multiplied hazard with vulnerability and divided with coping capacity. In this research, coping capacity is determined by the amount of internal budget for each Desa or Kelurahan for development purpose. Flood risk in Denpasar city is divided into five classes, very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Total population with very high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. Total population with high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. The number of population with medium risk reached 202478 people or 33.51% of total population which occupied 22.95% of total settlements or 1118.18 ha. The total number of population with low risk reached 79435 people or 13.14% of total population with area of low flood risk is 716.89 ha or 14.71% of total settlements in Denpasar City. Very low flood risk with total population at risk reached 19184 people or 31.74% of total population and occupied 2003.54 areas or 41.12% of total areas of settlements.

Mental health, stress and risk perception: insights from psychological research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, Ortwin

1997-01-01

Risk perceptions are only slightly correlated with the expected values of a probability distribution for negative health impacts. Psychometric studies have documented that context variables such as dread or personal control are important predictors for the perceived seriousness of risk. Studies about cultural patterns of risk perceptions emphasize different response set to risk information, depending on cultural priorities such as social justice versus personal freedom. This chapter reports the major psychological research pertaining to the factors that govern individual risk perception and discusses the psychometric effects due to people's risk perception and the experience of severe stress. The relative importance of the psychometric content variables, the signals pertaining to each health risks and symbolic beliefs are explained. (Author)

Radiation risk perception in Institute 'Vinca'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milanovic, S.; Pavlovic, S

1999-01-01

The necessity for research and development of risk analysis methods arise from practical needs for safety for men and environment. Relating to speed of technological development risk is implemented in modern technological achievements. Complexity of approach to the concept of risk presents the essence of risk management. Risk management means to apply risk analysis in order to risk decrease and control. Database for risk management is in technical social, economic and political area. Risk perception is a construction in the field of social psychology i.e. public opinion research. These results are of importance for the risk management. Research presented in this paper has been done on the sample of 240 examines with two basic sub samples: person working with ionizing radiation (140 of them) and persons not working with ionizing radiation (100 of them). Attitudes to risk definition risk acceptance and relation to risk consequences. (author)

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae

2002-01-01

A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

2009-03-01

We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

COMPARATIVE RESEARCH ON THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF SHARES FROM COMPANIES LISTED ON BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela-Cristina Onica

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Upon passing to a market economy, it became necessary to find out information as accurate as possible regarding the risk of bankruptcy of a certain companyin the future, in order to determine the share of such a risk and the importance of the fundamental analysis within the prediction of the evolution of stock price. In spite of these, specialists say that this type of analysis, in relation to the technical analysis, in the context of the financial crisis, determined an accentuated decrease of the stock exchange indices on an international level. The paper deals with the results of the research and of a comparative study regarding the fundamental analysis of the shares of 6 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB.

Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

2015-01-01

Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Safety analysis for research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The aim of safety analysis for research reactors is to establish and confirm the design basis for items important to safety using appropriate analytical tools. The design, manufacture, construction and commissioning should be integrated with the safety analysis to ensure that the design intent has been incorporated into the as-built reactor. Safety analysis assesses the performance of the reactor against a broad range of operating conditions, postulated initiating events and other circumstances, in order to obtain a complete understanding of how the reactor is expected to perform in these situations. Safety analysis demonstrates that the reactor can be kept within the safety operating regimes established by the designer and approved by the regulatory body. This analysis can also be used as appropriate in the development of operating procedures, periodic testing and inspection programmes, proposals for modifications and experiments and emergency planning. The IAEA Safety Requirements publication on the Safety of Research Reactors states that the scope of safety analysis is required to include analysis of event sequences and evaluation of the consequences of the postulated initiating events and comparison of the results of the analysis with radiological acceptance criteria and design limits. This Safety Report elaborates on the requirements established in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. NS-R-4 on the Safety of Research Reactors, and the guidance given in IAEA Safety Series No. 35-G1, Safety Assessment of Research Reactors and Preparation of the Safety Analysis Report, providing detailed discussion and examples of related topics. Guidance is given in this report for carrying out safety analyses of research reactors, based on current international good practices. The report covers all the various steps required for a safety analysis; that is, selection of initiating events and acceptance criteria, rules and conventions, types of safety analysis, selection of

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Rethinking Risk: Prospect Theory Application in Health Message Framing Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Nancy Grant; Kerr, Anna M

2017-02-01

Although prospect theory conceptualizes risk as uncertainty, health message framing research based on the theory typically conceptualizes risk as severity. This study reports the results of two experiments designed to explore these alternative conceptualizations of risk and their effect on health decision making. Participants (N 1  = 768, N 2  = 532) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that presented a hypothetical scenario of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) outbreak. The conditions were defined by message prompt (deadly vs. easily curable STD) and response option frame (gain vs. loss). Participants selected which of two programs (certain outcome vs. uncertain outcome) they would prefer to combat the outbreak. Across both experiments, participants expressed strong preferences for certain (low risk) outcomes in the gain-framed conditions and no preferences in the loss-framed conditions. These differences held regardless of the consequence severity of the scenario. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results and offer directions for future research.

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

Research design and statistical analysis

CERN Document Server

Myers, Jerome L; Lorch Jr, Robert F

2013-01-01

Research Design and Statistical Analysis provides comprehensive coverage of the design principles and statistical concepts necessary to make sense of real data.  The book's goal is to provide a strong conceptual foundation to enable readers to generalize concepts to new research situations.  Emphasis is placed on the underlying logic and assumptions of the analysis and what it tells the researcher, the limitations of the analysis, and the consequences of violating assumptions.  Sampling, design efficiency, and statistical models are emphasized throughout. As per APA recommendations

Competition of two supply chains with different risk structures: applying market research option

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hafezolkotob

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Demand uncertainty obliges all participants through a supply chain to make decisions under uncertainty. These decisions extend across price, investment, production, and inventory quantities. We take account of competition between two supply chains under demand uncertainty. These chains internally are involved in vertical pricing competition; however, they externally participate in horizontal pricing and service level competitions by offering a single-type product to the market. Since firms may have various attitudes against demand uncertainty and its related risks, different risk structures for competitive supply chains are considered. We assume that risk-averse firms are able to decrease demand uncertainty by information gathered from market research. For risk-averse participants in a chain, market research investment is an appropriate ground for vertical coordination, which diminishes risk through a supply chain. Optimal strategies based on game theory are obtained for different risk structures; furthermore, for each structure the effects of risk sensitivity as well as market research efficiency on these optimal strategies are investigated. Finally, we propose two scenarios for information sharing between risk-averse participants.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Are Eating Disorders Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieto-Martínez, Ramfis; González-Rivas, Juan P; Medina-Inojosa, José R; Florez, Hermes

2017-11-22

Eating disorders (ED) affect energy intake modifying body fat depots. Prior evidence suggests that binge eating disorder (BED) and bulimia nervosa (BN) could increase the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), while anorexia nervosa (AN) could reduce it. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate if ED are risk factors for T2D. Ten studies were selected out of 1057 screened. Meta-analysis of six studies with T2D as outcome is reported. Among cross-sectional studies, both BED (OR 3.69, 95% CI [1.12-12.12]) and BN (OR 3.45 [1.92-6.1]) increased the risk of T2D, while AN was not associated with lower risk (OR 0.87 [0.40-1.88]). Cohort studies showed increased risk of T2D with BN (RR 1.7 [1.2-2.5]), and decreased risk with AN (RR 0.71 [0.52-0.98]), but for BED the association was less clear (OR 3.34 [0.85-13.12]). Limitations of studies and recommendations for future research are presented.

Risk assessment for Argon-41 in RP-10 research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arenas C, J.; Alarcon V, P.

1987-01-01

An evaluation of the radiological risk during normal operations of the Peruvian 10 Mw research reactor was performed. The noble gas, Argon-41 produced from activation of Ar-40 from the air contained in the irradiation tubes, thermal column and coolant, is analyzed as the major source of risk

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1984-10-01

A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Citation analysis in research evaluation

CERN Document Server

Moed, Henk F

2005-01-01

This book is written for members of the scholarly research community, and for persons involved in research evaluation and research policy. More specifically, it is directed towards the following four main groups of readers: - All scientists and scholars who have been or will be subjected to a quantitative assessment of research performance using citation analysis. - Research policy makers and managers who wish to become conversant with the basic features of citation analysis, and about its potentialities and limitations. - Members of peer review committees and other evaluators, who consider th

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Carboy Security Risk Analysis Model of I and C System Using Bayesian Network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Hanseong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jaekwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) as a regulatory agency declares the R. G 8.22 for applying cyber security in Korea in 2011. In nuclear power industrial, ShinUljin 1, 2 unit and Shingori 3, 4 unit are demonstrating the cyber security for the first time. And in terms of research, the National Security Research Institute and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute are developing the nuclear power plant cyber security system in Korean. Currently, these cyber securities like regulation, demonstration and research are focused on nuclear power plant. However, cyber security is also important for the nuclear research reactor like a HANARO which is in Daejeon, primarily due to its characteristic as research reactor since since people access more than power plant. Analysis of the key elements of cyber security is possible to study through the activity-quality and architecture analysis model of cyber security. It is possible to analyze the extent reflected final risk by evaluating input score for each checklist. In this way, you can see an important checklist. Further, if the cyber-attack occurs, it is possible to provide an evidentiary material that is able to determine the key check element corresponding to each situation via a reverse calculation of BN. Finally, Utilization is possible to create a simulated penetratio test scenario according to each situation. Analysis of the key elements of cyber security is possible to study through the activity-quality and architecture analysis model of cyber security. It is possible to analyze the extent reflected in the final risk by evaluating input score for each checklist, in this way, you can see an important checklist. Furthermore, if the cyber-attack occurs, it is possible to provide an evidentiary material that enables to determine the key check element corresponding to each situation via a reverse calculation of BN. Finally, Utilization is possible to create a simulated penetration test scenario according to

Carboy Security Risk Analysis Model of I and C System Using Bayesian Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jinsoo; Heo, Gyunyoung; Son, Hanseong; Park, Jaekwan

2013-01-01

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) as a regulatory agency declares the R. G 8.22 for applying cyber security in Korea in 2011. In nuclear power industrial, ShinUljin 1, 2 unit and Shingori 3, 4 unit are demonstrating the cyber security for the first time. And in terms of research, the National Security Research Institute and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute are developing the nuclear power plant cyber security system in Korean. Currently, these cyber securities like regulation, demonstration and research are focused on nuclear power plant. However, cyber security is also important for the nuclear research reactor like a HANARO which is in Daejeon, primarily due to its characteristic as research reactor since since people access more than power plant. Analysis of the key elements of cyber security is possible to study through the activity-quality and architecture analysis model of cyber security. It is possible to analyze the extent reflected final risk by evaluating input score for each checklist. In this way, you can see an important checklist. Further, if the cyber-attack occurs, it is possible to provide an evidentiary material that is able to determine the key check element corresponding to each situation via a reverse calculation of BN. Finally, Utilization is possible to create a simulated penetratio test scenario according to each situation. Analysis of the key elements of cyber security is possible to study through the activity-quality and architecture analysis model of cyber security. It is possible to analyze the extent reflected in the final risk by evaluating input score for each checklist, in this way, you can see an important checklist. Furthermore, if the cyber-attack occurs, it is possible to provide an evidentiary material that enables to determine the key check element corresponding to each situation via a reverse calculation of BN. Finally, Utilization is possible to create a simulated penetration test scenario according to

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost

Concept analysis of dietary biculturalism in Filipino immigrants within the context of cardiovascular risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Serafica, Reimund; Knurick, Jessica; Morris, Brendan Tran

2018-04-01

Dietary biculturalism is an emerging phenomenon among the Filipino immigrant population. Determining the concept of dietary biculturalism on this specific population will unravel some of the obscurities of emerging dietary patterns within the context of cardiovascular risk. The purpose of this article is to provide a concept analysis of dietary biculturalism within the health context of cardiovascular risk using Walker and Avant's method as an organizing framework. A detailed literature review was performed on the basis of population specificity (Filipinos) use of dietary patterns as variable and theoretical literary models of acculturation. The generalizability of published research on this issue is problematic since researchers have not addressed the unhealthy traditional foods component that one may consume in addition to the Western foods. Nurse researchers should focus on the detrimental effects of unhealthy traditional foods that may be relevant in explaining some of the cardiovascular risk factors affecting this population. Nurses and practitioners should take care to query not only about the frequency of ethnic food consumption, but also types, and amounts among their Filipino patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundtang Paulsen, J.

2004-05-01

This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Drug injecting and HIV risk among injecting drug users in Hai Phong, Vietnam: a qualitative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Tanvir; Long, Thanh Nguyen; Huong, Phan Thi; Stewart, Donald Edwin

2015-01-29

Hai Phong, located in northern Vietnam, has become a high HIV prevalence province among Injecting Drug Users (IDUs) since the infection shifted from the southern to the northern region of the country. Previous research indicates high levels of drug and sex related risk behaviour especially among younger IDUs. Our recent qualitative research provides a deeper understanding of HIV risk behaviour and highlights views and experiences of IDUs relating to drug injecting and sharing practices. Fifteen IDUs participated in semi-structured interviews conducted in September-October, 2012. Eligible participants were selected from those recruited in a larger scale behavioural research project and identified through screening questions. Interviews were conducted by two local interviewers in Vietnamese and were audiotaped. Ethical procedures, including informed consent and participants' understanding of their right to skip and withdraw, were applied. Transcripts were translated and double checked. The data were categorised and coded according to themes. Thematic analysis was conducted and a qualitative data analysis thematic framework was used. Qualitative analysis highlighted situational circumstances associated with HIV risks among IDUs in Hai Phong and revealed three primary themes: (i) places for injecting, (ii) injecting drugs in small groups, and (iii) sharing practices. Our results showed that shared use of jointly purchased drugs and group injecting were widespread among IDUs without adequate recognition of these as HIV risk behaviours. Frequent police raids generated a constant fear of arrest. As a consequence, the majority preferred either rail lines or isolated public places for injection, while some injected in their own or a friend's home. Price, a heroin crisis, and strong group norms encouraged collective preparation and group injecting. Risk practices were enhanced by a number of factors: the difficulty in getting new syringes, quick withdrawal management

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Bias due to selective dichotomization of multilevel exposure classes in risk analysis studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peralta, S.B.

1992-01-01

General equations are developed for odds and risk ratio calculation in risk analysis studies with multiple exposure metrics, specifically for the four-level Wertheimer-Leeper (WL) code used in electromagnetic field (EMF) health studies. For an m-level code there are m-1 ways of categorizing subjects as exposed or unexposed: this dichotomization may be biased to maximize (or minimize) the risk parameter. This result is illustrated using Monte-Carlo simulation of health data. Results vary depending on the dichotomy used: indications of increased risk, decreased risk, window effects and inverse window effects are obtained, reflecting the range of conflicting results found in present-day EMF research. These results stress the need for care in the presentation and interpretation of health data in risk studies, especially where the exposure classification system is arbitrarily modifiable. This indication is especially urgent in the EMF field in view of recent proposals to base new epidemiological studies on subjectively modified WL codes. 8 refs., 7 tabs

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual research review: Rare genotypes and childhood psychopathology--uncovering diverse developmental mechanisms of ADHD risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Scerif, Gaia; Baker, Kate

2015-03-01

Through the increased availability and sophistication of genetic testing, it is now possible to identify causal diagnoses in a growing proportion of children with neurodevelopmental disorders. In addition to developmental delay and intellectual disability, many genetic disorders are associated with high risks of psychopathology, which curtail the wellbeing of affected individuals and their families. Beyond the identification of significant clinical needs, understanding the diverse pathways from rare genetic mutations to cognitive dysfunction and emotional-behavioural disturbance has theoretical and practical utility. We overview (based on a strategic search of the literature) the state-of-the-art on causal mechanisms leading to one of the most common childhood behavioural diagnoses - attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) - in the context of specific genetic disorders. We focus on new insights emerging from the mapping of causal pathways from identified genetic differences to neuronal biology, brain abnormalities, cognitive processing differences and ultimately behavioural symptoms of ADHD. First, ADHD research in the context of rare genotypes highlights the complexity of multilevel mechanisms contributing to psychopathology risk. Second, comparisons between genetic disorders associated with similar psychopathology risks can elucidate convergent or distinct mechanisms at each level of analysis, which may inform therapeutic interventions and prognosis. Third, genetic disorders provide an unparalleled opportunity to observe dynamic developmental interactions between neurocognitive risk and behavioural symptoms. Fourth, variation in expression of psychopathology risk within each genetic disorder points to putative moderating and protective factors within the genome and the environment. A common imperative emerging within psychopathology research is the need to investigate mechanistically how developmental trajectories converge or diverge between and within

Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishant Sinha

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

Supply Chain Risk Management: Literature Review and Future Research

OpenAIRE

Iwan Vanany; Suhaiza Zailani; Nyoman Pujawan

2009-01-01

Supply chain risk management has increasingly becoming a more popular research area recently. Various papers, with different focus and approaches, have been published since a few years ago. This paper aims to survey supply chain risk management (SCRM) literature. Paper published in relevant journals from 2000 to 2007 are analysed and classified into five categories: conceptual, descriptive, empirical, exploratory cross-sectional, and exploratory longitudinal. We also looked at the papers in t...

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasper Mbachu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

Risk Factor Research and Prevention for Anxiety Disorders: Introduction to the Special Series on Risk and Prevention of Anxiety Pathology

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Norman B.; Zvolensky, Michael J.

2007-01-01

In relation to treatment-related research in the United States, there is relatively little systematic effort focused on the combination of risk and prevention for anxiety pathology. This article broadly discusses risk factor research and prevention program development for anxiety psychopathology. The authors also specifically discuss papers in…

Research overview of microblog analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin LIU

Full Text Available Microblog is one of the important social information communication platform. Because of its characteristics of easy operation and fast spread, people can directly and quickly express their attitude to emergencies, public figures, hot products and daily life through microblog. In order to utilize the vast microblog information, it needs to combine various microblog analysis methods to discover the potential value of information. This paper first reviews the current research of microblog analysis field and puts forward the independent research and development system of microblog analysis, then explores the future research direction of microblog analysis.First of all, this paper introduces two dominating technical methods of microblog analysis, including microblog open platform and web crawler technology. People can have convenient and prompt access to microblog information resources via open interface of microblog, such as microblog content, user reviews, user personal details, the number of fans, the number of attention, etc.. But it also has many limitations. For example, it can only be grabbed for limited times every hour and it is not open for all the resources information. Utilizing the web crawler technology, more information resources can be obtained. For example, the information acquisition technology based on general web crawler can cover a wider range and based on the focused crawler, the predefined theme can be crawled selectively.Secondly, this paper presents the hot issues of current microblog, including analysis on users' behavior and microblog content. Research on microblog user behavior includes: 1 Research on information communication network. Its purpose is to predict future propagation, which uses Gephi visualization tools to present propagation path under microblog diffusion, propagation range and the key of forwarding nodes, etc.. 2 Research on propagation factors. It reveals the possible causes of information

Recognizing Risk and Vulnerability in Research Ethics: Imagining the "What Ifs?"

Science.gov (United States)

Peter, Elizabeth; Friedland, Judith

2017-04-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) may misunderstand the vulnerability of participants, given their distance from the field. What RECs identify as the vulnerabilities that were not adequately recognized in protocols and how they attempt to protect the perceived vulnerability of participants and mitigate risks were examined using the response letters sent to researchers by three university-based RECs. Using a critical qualitative method informed by feminist ethics, we identified an overarching theme of recognizing and responding to cascading vulnerabilities and four subthemes: identifying vulnerable groups, recognizing potentially risky research, imagining the "what ifs," and mitigating perceived risks. An ethics approach that is up-close, as opposed to distant, is needed to foster closer relationships among participants, researchers, and RECs and to understand participant vulnerability and strength better.

Analysis of current research addressing complementary use of life-cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: have lessons been learned from previous experience with chemicals?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko; Christensen, Frans; Baun, Anders; Olsen, Stig I.

2012-01-01

While it is generally agreed that successful strategies to address the health and environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (NM) should consider the well-established frameworks for conducting life-cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA), scientific research, and specific guidance on how to practically apply these methods are still very much under development. This paper evaluates how research efforts have applied LCA and RA together for NM, particularly reflecting on previous experiences with applying these methods to chemicals. Through a literature review and a separate analysis of research focused on applying LCA and RA together for NM, it appears that current research efforts have taken into account some key “lessons learned” from previous experience with chemicals while many key challenges remain for practically applying these methods to NM. We identified two main approaches for using these methods together for NM: “LC-based RA” (traditional RA applied in a life-cycle perspective) and “RA-complemented LCA” (conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life-cycle steps). Hence, the latter is the only identified approach which genuinely combines LC- and RA-based methods for NM-risk research efforts to date as the former is rather a continuation of normal RA according to standard assessment procedures (e.g., REACH). Both these approaches along with recommendations for using LCA and RA together for NM are similar to those made previously for chemicals, and thus, there does not appear to be much progress made specific for NM. We have identified one issue in particular that may be specific for NM when applying LCA and RA at this time: the need to establish proper dose metrics within both methods.

Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazmer, D.R.

1982-01-01

The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

2013-06-01

Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

The watchdog role of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

1983-01-01

The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

The Risk of Venous Thromboembolism with Different Generation of Oral Contraceptives; a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza Baratloo

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Oral contraceptives (OCs are considered as one of the most common risk factor of venous thromboembolism (VTE in child bearing age. Some of the recent researches indicate that the odds of VTE may be even higher with newer generations of OCs. The present meta-analysis was designed to evaluate the effect of different generation of OCs on the occurrence of VTE. Methods: Two researchers independently ran a thorough search in Pubmed, ISI Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL and Scopus databases regarding study keywords including thromboembolic event, thromboembolism, embolism, thromboembolic, thrombotic and thrombosis, combined with oral contraceptive. The outcomes were the incidence of diagnosed thromboembolism, such as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism and cerebral venous thrombosis. Based on the heterogeneity of the studies, random effect model was used and pooled odds ratio was reported. Results: Three cohort and 17 case-control studies with 13,265,228 subjects were entered into meta-analysis. Analysis showed that the odds of VTE in women taking OCs are more than three-fold (OR=3.13; 95% CI: 2.61-3.65. The risk of VTE in women taking first-, second- and third-generation OCs are 3.5 fold (OR=3.48; 95% CI: 2.01-4.94, 3 fold (OR=3.08; 95% CI: 2.43-3.74 and 4.3 fold (OR=4.35; CI: 3.69‒5.01, respectively. Conclusion: It seems that the risk of VTE is not same between different generations of OCs, so that third-generation has highest risk. Taking second and third-generation OCs increases the risk of VTE up to 3 and 4.3 fold, respectively. The researchers of the present study suggest that more clinical trials be designed in relation to the effect of newer generations of OCs in different communities. 

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

Bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina

2014-12-01

Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Song

2017-03-01

Full Text Available With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the qagriculture, rural areas and farmersq problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this paper contains four aspects: the classification and characteristics of credit risk, the problems and factors of credit risk, the model and evaluation of credit risk, the countermeasures and suggestions of credit risk. This paper reviews the research of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives from the above four aspects, and makes a brief summary.

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

2005-01-01

.... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Corina Deselnicu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis: III. Others.

Science.gov (United States)

Seppala, Lotta J; van de Glind, Esther M M; Daams, Joost G; Ploegmakers, Kimberley J; de Vries, Max; Wermelink, Anne M A T; van der Velde, Nathalie

2018-04-01

The use of psychotropic medication and cardiovascular medication has been associated with an increased risk of falling. However, other frequently prescribed medication classes are still under debate as potential risk factors for falls in the older population. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the associations between fall risk and nonpsychotropic and noncardiovascular medications. A systematic review and meta-analysis. A search was conducted in Medline, PsycINFO, and Embase. Key search concepts were "falls," "aged," "medication," and "causality." Studies were included that investigated nonpsychotropic and noncardiovascular medications as risk factors for falls in participants ≥60 years or participants with a mean age ≥70 years. A meta-analysis was performed using the generic inverse variance method, pooling unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) estimates separately. In a qualitative synthesis, 281 studies were included. The results of meta-analysis using adjusted data were as follows (a pooled OR [95% confidence interval]): analgesics, 1.42 (0.91-2.23); nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), 1.09 (0.96-1.23); opioids, 1.60 (1.35-1.91); anti-Parkinson drugs, 1.54 (0.99-2.39); antiepileptics, 1.55 (1.25-1.92); and polypharmacy, 1.75 (1.27-2.41). Most of the meta-analyses resulted in substantial heterogeneity that did not disappear after stratification for population and setting in most cases. In a descriptive synthesis, consistent associations with falls were observed for long-term proton pump inhibitor use and opioid initiation. Laxatives showed inconsistent associations with falls (7/20 studies showing a positive association). Opioid and antiepileptic use and polypharmacy were significantly associated with increased risk of falling in the meta-analyses. Long-term use of proton pump inhibitors and opioid initiation might increase the fall risk. Future research is necessary because the causal role of some medication

Research in Shape Analysis

CERN Document Server

Leonard, Kathryn; Tari, Sibel; Hubert, Evelyne; Morin, Geraldine; El-Zehiry, Noha; Chambers, Erin

2018-01-01

Based on the second Women in Shape (WiSH) workshop held in Sirince, Turkey in June 2016, these proceedings offer the latest research on shape modeling and analysis and their applications. The 10 peer-reviewed articles in this volume cover a broad range of topics, including shape representation, shape complexity, and characterization in solving image-processing problems. While the first six chapters establish understanding in the theoretical topics, the remaining chapters discuss important applications such as image segmentation, registration, image deblurring, and shape patterns in digital fabrication. The authors in this volume are members of the WiSH network and their colleagues, and most were involved in the research groups formed at the workshop. This volume sheds light on a variety of shape analysis methods and their applications, and researchers and graduate students will find it to be an invaluable resource for further research in the area.

Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Workplace bullying and sickness absence: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the research literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Morten Birkeland; Indregard, Anne-Marthe Rustad; Øverland, Simon

2016-09-01

The association between workplace bullying and sickness absence remains unclear. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of research on the association. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published primary studies on workplace bullying and sickness absence. Studies based on prospective design or registry data on sickness absence were included. Cross-sectional studies with self-reported sickness absence were excluded. Seventeen primary studies were included in the review, sixteen originated from the Nordic countries and fifteen included registry data on sickness absence. All but one study found that exposure to workplace bullying was associated with increased risk of sickness absence. A meta-analysis of ten independent studies showed that exposure to bullying increased the risk of sickness absence (odds ratio 1.58, 95% CI 1.39-1.79). Five studies included variables that moderated the association between bullying and absenteeism. None of the studies included mediating variables. No studies examined sickness absence as a risk factor for later exposure to bullying. Following the GRADE guidelines, the evidence for an association between bullying and sickness absence is moderate. Workplace bullying is a risk factor for sickness absence, but the mechanisms to explain this relationship are not sufficiently described. It is unclear whether sickness absence predicts later exposure to bullying. While, the methodological quality of the reviewed studies was high, the knowledge base is small. There is a need for more research on how and when bullying is related to sickness absence and the possible bidirectional relationships involved.

Risk analysis and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppuluri, V.R.R.

1979-01-01

Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

1991-01-01

The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

Balancing the risks and benefits of genomic data sharing: genome research participants' perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, J M; Slashinski, M J; Wang, T; Kelly, P A; Hilsenbeck, S G; McGuire, A L

2012-01-01

Technological advancements are rapidly propelling the field of genome research forward, while lawmakers attempt to keep apace with the risks these advances bear. Balancing normative concerns of maximizing data utility and protecting human subjects, whose privacy is at risk due to the identifiability of DNA data, are central to policy decisions. Research on genome research participants making real-time data sharing decisions is limited; yet, these perspectives could provide critical information to ongoing deliberations. We conducted a randomized trial of 3 consent types affording varying levels of control over data release decisions. After debriefing participants about the randomization process, we invited them to a follow-up interview to assess their attitudes toward genetic research, privacy and data sharing. Participants were more restrictive in their reported data sharing preferences than in their actual data sharing decisions. They saw both benefits and risks associated with sharing their genomic data, but risks were seen as less concrete or happening in the future, and were largely outweighed by purported benefits. Policymakers must respect that participants' assessment of the risks and benefits of data sharing and their privacy-utility determinations, which are associated with their final data release decisions, vary. In order to advance the ethical conduct of genome research, proposed policy changes should carefully consider these stakeholder perspectives. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

Science.gov (United States)

Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

2016-02-01

Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

Systems approach to project risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

2002-01-01

This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

2013-01-01

Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

On Statistical Analysis of Competing Risks with Application to the Time of First Goal

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Volf, Petr

2016-01-01

Roč. 2, č. 10 (2016), s. 606-623, č. článku 2. ISSN 2411-2518 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-14445S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : survival analysis * competing risks * sports statistics Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/SI/volf-0466157.pdf

Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

2013-07-01

UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user