WorldWideScience

Sample records for research risk analysis

  1. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  2. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  3. French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1984-11-01

    This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented [fr

  4. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  5. Analysis of radiological risks in biological research centers english

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usera, F.; Hidalgo, R.M.; Macias, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    The work identifies the amount by which pollution and irradiation risks affect the staff. This was done in order to prevent them and also to establish the most adequate means and methodology for their reduction. For that, we have given priority to determine whether the staff applies in a correct way specific protection means available. And also, if they know the risks to which they are exposed taking into account methods they employ

  6. PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Bremmer, J.; Kenis, M.; Mumford, J.; Petter, F.; Schrader, G.; Bacher, S.; DeBarro, P.; Hulme, P.E.; Karadjova, O.; Oude Lansink, A.; Pruvost, O.; Pysek, P.; Roques, A.; Baranchikov, Y.; Sun, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    PRATIQUE is an EC-funded 7th Framework research project designed to address the major challenges for pest risk analysis (PRA) in Europe. It has three principal objectives: (a) to assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU, (b) to conduct multi-disciplinary

  7. Credit Risk Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zamore, Stephen; Ohene Djan, Kwame; Alon, Ilan

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web...... of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified...... into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying...

  8. Current research in risk-aware business process management - overview, comparison, and gap analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suriadi, S.; Weiss, B. (Burkhard); Winkelmann, A.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Adams, M.; Conforti, R.; Fidge, C.J.; La Rosa, Marcello; Ouyang, C.; Pika, A.; Rosemann, M.; Wynn, M.T.

    2014-01-01

    The management of risks in business processes has been a subject of active research in the past few years. Many benefits can potentially be obtained by integrating the two traditionally-separated fields of risk management and business process management, including the ability to minimize risks in

  9. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krywkow, J.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jörg; van der Veen, A.

    2007-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  10. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi - criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  11. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  12. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  13. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  14. Analysis of cancer mortality risk among workers of a research uranium metallurgy division in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jejati, H.; Laurier, D.; Tirmarche, M.; Giraud, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This cohort study has been undertaken in response to a suspected cluster of cancers mentioned by workers involved in research activities concerning the metallurgy of uranium. The studied population included all persons having worked between 1950 and 1968 at the Metallurgy Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). Exposures were registered on an individual annual basis. For analysis, they were grouped in three categories: use of chemicals agents (Benzene, beryllium, alcohols, solvents ...), manipulation of radioactive materials (uranium, thorium, fission decay products), and exposure to external radiation. This relatively small cohort included 356 workers followed up to December 1990. Out of observed deaths, 21 were from cancer. Total mortality from cancer was less than expected from national rates (Standardised Mortality Ratio = 0.73). Cancer mortality did not increase with duration of exposure to external radiation or with duration of manipulation of radioactive materials. Risk of cancer was increasing with the number of years of exposure to chemicals. The small size of this cohort limits the conclusion of the observed results. The purpose, despite this lack of power, was to answer a worry of the workers, more than to estimate a clear dose-response relationship linked to a specific cancer site. The effect studied here is ''all cancers'', a distinction of the different sites being uninformative because of the very small number of cases observed. Nevertheless, this study suggests some routes for further research: it highlights the importance of considering concomitant exposures like chemical ones in studies of nuclear workers. (author)

  15. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  16. 75 FR 53273 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-31

    ... Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force (ANSTF). The Protocol is available for public review and comment... the draft revised Protocol are available on the ANSTF website, http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php... nonindigenous species (ANS) and is designed to reduce the risk that research activities may cause introduction...

  17. 75 FR 74007 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-30

    ... site, http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php . To obtain a hard copy of the Protocol, see Document... aquatic species that are the target of this risk analysis. Language used in the NANPCA differentiates...: http://anstaskforce.gov/documents.php Write: Susan Pasko, National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

  18. Research Insights About Risk Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Therese R. Viscelli

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, expectations for increased risk governance have been placed explicitly on boards of directors. In response, boards are being held responsible for not only understanding and approving management’s risk management processes, but they are also being held responsible for assessing the risks identified by those processes as part of overseeing management’s pursuit of value. These increasing responsibilities have led a number of organizations to adopt enterprise risk management (ERM as a holistic approach to risk management that extends beyond traditional silo-based risk management techniques. As boards, often through their audit committee, consider management’s implementation of ERM as part of the board’s risk oversight, a number of questions emerge that can be informed by academic research related to ERM. This article summarizes findings from ERM research to provide insights related to the board’s risk governance responsibilities. We also identify a number of research questions that warrant further analysis by governance scholars. It is our hope that this article will spawn varying types of research about ERM and corporate governance.

  19. Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

  20. Analysis on Risk Factors of Nosocomial Infection in Orthopedic Patients and Research on Nursing Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Zhitao

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Orthopedic patients mostly comprise traumatic patients and elderly or sick individuals. More patients with emergency surgery suffer from open wounds and serious pollution, and operation time is relatively long. Thus, orthopedic patients with surgical incision infection account for a large proportion of incidence of hospital infection. Orthopedic patients are also bedridden for long periods, and they receive poor bone tissue blood supply. In surgical incision infections, mild cases suffer from delayed wound healing, whereas severe cases can form osteomyelitis. This study reviews progress of research on risk factors of nosocomial infection among orthopedic patients in recent years.

  1. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  2. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  3. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  4. Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: silvasf@cdtn.br, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

  5. Probabilistic safety analysis and risk-based inspection of nuclear research reactors: state-of-the-art and implementation proposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, Raíssa O.; Vasceoncelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington A.; Silva Júnior, Silvério F.; Raso, Amanda L.; Mesquita, Amir Z.

    2017-01-01

    Industrial facilities systems deteriorate over time during operation, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) classifies such systems by their risk information with the purpose of prioritizing inspection efforts. RBI can reduce inspection activities, resulting in lower risk levels, and maintaining reliability and safety in acceptable levels. Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) is a RBI approach used in nuclear industry. RI-ISI uses outcomes from Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) to plan In-Service Inspections (ISI). Despite nuclear research reactors are simpler and have lower risks than power reactors, the application of PSA to them may be useful for safety improvements once they are more flexible, provide easier access to its core, and allow changes in fuel configurations in case of experimental tests. Ageing management of structures, systems and components important to safety of a nuclear research reactor throughout its lifetime is also required to assure continued adequacy of safety levels, reliable operation, and compliance with operational limits and conditions. This includes periodic review of ISI programs in which monitoring of material deterioration and aging effects are considered, and that can be supported by the RBI approach. A review of state-of-the-art of PSA and RBI applications to nuclear reactors is presented in this work. Advantages to apply these methodologies are also analyzed. PSA and RBI implementation proposal applied to nuclear research reactors is also presented, as well as its application to a TRIGA research nuclear reactor using computer codes developed by ReliaSoft® Corporation. (author)

  6. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  7. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  8. An analysis of electricity generation health risks. A United Kingdom perspective. Research Report No. 20

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, D.J.; Roberts, L.E.J.; Simpson, A.C.D.

    1994-01-01

    This report deals with normalised (per GWa) health risk estimates associated with the construction, routine operation and decommissioning of seven feasible large-scale UK electricity generation options. Occupational risk estimates of prompt and delayed fatalities are the most robust of the statistics, though still subject to many sources of unavoidable uncertainty. The indications are that the occupational risks for each of the seven cycles, when combined for each cycle, currently lie in the range of about 0.1 to 0.2 to a maximum of about 1 to 2 fatalities per GWa, with tidal power and gas lying at the lower end of this range, and coal and off-shore wind at the higher end. Significant public health risks, at least of the type included within the remit of this project, were not identified for the renewable cycles. Comparisons between the nuclear and fossil cycles are fraught with difficulty. Individual radiation doses to the public from the nuclear (and fossil) cycles are insignificant compared to those from natural background radiation, but collective doses may appear significant if integrated over thousands of years and continental or global populations. Estimating health effects due to small collective doses to populations that may exist in the far future has little scientific justification, and in any event the estimates pale into insignificance when compared with those resulting from exposure to natural radiation were this to be calculated on the same basis. This problem is further compounded when comparison between nuclear and fossil cycles is attempted, since the latter produce copious quantities of either solid, liquid or gaseous effluents, which may contain heavy metals, carcinogens and known respiratory irritants, but for which neither short nor long-term public health implications have been quantified with confidence. The risks of major accidents in the UK have been considered and found to exist for most, perhaps all, of the seven options considered. Some

  9. An epidemiological research and risk factor analysis of adult rumination syndrome in a Chinese naval force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-li WU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the epidemiological features and its potential related risk factors of adult rumination syndrome (ARS in Chinese naval servicemen, and to provide clinical basis for diagnosis and treatment of ARS. Methods A randomized cluster sampling method was used. Investigation and diagnosis were made according to the Rome Ⅲ Modular Questionnaire from November 2006 to April 2007, and 8600 cases were collected from naval forces. Results 7454 valid questionnaires were retrieved. The overall incidence of ARS was 2.32% (176/7574, male>female. The median age, age of conscription and length of military service were 23, 18 and 4 years respectively. The ARS was most common in unmarried people, who were 21-25 years old holding a high school diploma, with a 1-4 years military service. The incidence of ARS was different between groups with different gender, age, years of military service and marital status (P<0.05. No significant difference in the incidence between those with different education levels or blood types. The differences between individuals in ARS group and healthy controls were related to habit of overeating (P=0.0000, picky eating (P=0.0001, addiction to spicy food (P=0.0000, eating hard dry food (P=0.0001, and eating fruits (P=0.0188. Conclusion The overall incidence of ARS in naval force is 2.32%, and it is prevalent in young man. The body weight is an independent risk factor for ARS.

  10. An epidemiological research and risk factor analysis of functional gastroduodenal disorders in a Chinese naval force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin YAN

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the epidemiology and relative risk factors of functional gastroduodenal disorders (FGD in servicemen of a Chinese naval force. Methods The officers and soldiers in a Chinese naval force were surveyed by multistage stratified random cluster sampling method according to FGID Rome Ⅲ classification and diagnostic criteria. FGD was diagnosed and classified by the international harmonization evaluation method (SA for Rome Ⅲ-DQ. Results 8600 officers and soldiers were included. According to the 7574 valid questionnaires, the incidence of FGD was 16.74%(1268/7574. Among them, the incidence of functional dyspepsia (FD was 9.88%(748/7574, belching 4.48%(339/7574, functional nausea and vomiting 6.62%(501/7574, and adult rumination syndrome 2.38%(180/7574. FGD in naval force was prevalent mainly in 26-35 years old population. A higher incidence was found in persons with higher body mass index (BMI, P<0.05. The incidence in those who had been in military service over 4 years was obviously higher (P<0.05. The incidence was higher in officers than in soldiers (P<0.05. The incidence was higher in administrative staff, military professional personnel, scientific and technical workers, medical practitioners and teachers than that of students and logistic staff (P<0.05. Spicy food, avoidance of certain food, work stress, working in high temperature and extremely hot weather, drinking, noninfectious diarrhea, and history of dysentery might be the most important risk factors, and they showed higher strength of association with the incidence of FGD (P<0.01. Conclusion FGD has a relatively high morbidity rate in naval force population, and it is closely related to dietary habits, working conditions and past history, and attention should be given to this ailment.

  11. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  12. Structural uncertainty in seismic risk analysis. Seismic safety margins research program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasselman, T K; Simonian, S S [J.H. Wiggins Company (United States)

    1980-03-01

    This report documents the formulation of a methodology for modeling and evaluating the effects of structural uncertainty on predicted modal characteristics of the major structures and substructures of commercial nuclear power plants. The uncertainties are cast in the form of normalized random variables which represent the demonstrated ability to predict modal frequencies, damping and modal response amplitudes for broad generic types of structures (steel frame, reinforced concrete and prestressed concrete). Data based on observed differences between predicted and measured structural performance at the member, substructure, and/or major structural system levels are used to quantify uncertainties and thus form the data base for statistical analysis. Proper normalization enables data from non-nuclear structures, e.g., office buildings, to be included in the data base. Numerous alternative methods are defined within the general framework of this methodology. The report also documents the results of a data survey to identify, classify and evaluate available data for the required data base. A bibliography of 95 references is included. Deficiencies in the currently identified data base are exposed, and remedial measures suggested. Recommendations are made for implementation of the methodology. (author)

  13. Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

  14. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  16. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  17. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  18. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yan-qun; Zeng, Xiao-hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  19. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  20. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  1. Nuclear safety research - risk and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossin, A.D.

    1982-01-01

    The nuclear power industry deals in many kinds of risks, complicated by political stress and communication problems. Power plant design must prepare for the unexpected attack, physical as well as psychological, but a zero-defects technology is not possible. The public has not been made sufficiently aware of the risk the US takes if there is not enough energy because nuclear power has been curtailed. Energy shortages could drive industry and jobs abroad, force the public to turn to government for a solution, drive the country to energy allocation, and cause a nuclear war. Policies that prevent closing the nuclear fuel cycle are ineffective in preventing proliferation and counterproductive to national needs

  2. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  3. Risk to researchers in qualitative research on sensitive topics: issues and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson-Swift, Virginia; James, Erica L; Kippen, Sandra; Liamputtong, Pranee

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, risk assessments in research have been limited to examining the risks to the research participants. Although doing so is appropriate and important, there is growing recognition that undertaking research can pose risks to researchers as well. A grounded theory study involving a range of researchers who had undertaken qualitative health research on a sensitive topic was completed. Analysis of the in-depth, face-to-face unstructured individual interviews with 30 Australian public health researchers provided evidence that researchers do confront a number of physical and emotional risks when undertaking research. Training, preparation, and supervision must be taken into account so that the risk to researchers can be minimized. Researchers need to consider occupational health and safety issues in designing research projects that deal with physical and emotional risks. Recommendations for professional supervision, policy development, and minimum training standards for researchers are provided.

  4. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  5. A proposed programme for energy risk research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The report consists of two parts. Part I presents an overview of technological risk management, noting major contributions and current research needs. Part II details a proposed program of energy research, including discussions of some seven recommended projects. The proposed energy risk research program addresses two basic problem areas: improving the management of energy risks and energy risk communication and public response. Specific recommended projects are given for each. (Auth.)

  6. Research in Shape Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Leonard, Kathryn; Tari, Sibel; Hubert, Evelyne; Morin, Geraldine; El-Zehiry, Noha; Chambers, Erin

    2018-01-01

    Based on the second Women in Shape (WiSH) workshop held in Sirince, Turkey in June 2016, these proceedings offer the latest research on shape modeling and analysis and their applications. The 10 peer-reviewed articles in this volume cover a broad range of topics, including shape representation, shape complexity, and characterization in solving image-processing problems. While the first six chapters establish understanding in the theoretical topics, the remaining chapters discuss important applications such as image segmentation, registration, image deblurring, and shape patterns in digital fabrication. The authors in this volume are members of the WiSH network and their colleagues, and most were involved in the research groups formed at the workshop. This volume sheds light on a variety of shape analysis methods and their applications, and researchers and graduate students will find it to be an invaluable resource for further research in the area.

  7. Risk - a new field of research?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, G.

    1993-01-01

    Risk research is a research activity that hitherto has failed to come up with a standard concept of risk, or theory of risk. The contribution explains three major approaches and basic orientations, which represent a formal and law-oriented approach, a psychological and cognitive approach, and the approach starting from cultural and sociological aspects. (DG) [de

  8. Cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis of nutritional support for preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk patients: implement now, research later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuffaha, Haitham W; Roberts, Shelley; Chaboyer, Wendy; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

    2015-04-01

    Pressure ulcers are a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and increased healthcare cost. Nutritional support may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in hospitalised patients who are at risk of pressure ulcer and malnutrition. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional support in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients, and to assess the value of further research to inform the decision to implement this intervention using value of information analysis (VOI). The analysis was from the perspective of Queensland Health, Australia using a decision model with evidence derived from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Resources were valued using 2014 prices and the time horizon of the analysis was one year. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate net monetary benefits (NB) and to calculate VOI measures. Compared with standard hospital diet, nutritional support was cost saving at AU$425 per patient, and more effective with an average 0.005 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. At a willingness-to-pay of AU$50,000 per QALY, the incremental NB was AU$675 per patient, with a probability of 87 % that nutritional support is cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information was AU$5 million and the expected value of perfect parameter information was highest for the relative risk of developing a pressure ulcer at AU$2.5 million. For a future trial investigating the relative effectiveness of the interventions, the expected net benefit of research would be maximised at AU$100,000 with 1,200 patients in each arm if nutritional support was perfectly implemented. The opportunity cost of withholding the decision to implement the intervention until the results of the future study are available would be AU$14 million. Nutritional support is cost-effective in preventing pressure ulcers in high-risk hospitalised patients compared with standard diet. Future research to reduce decision uncertainty is worthwhile; however, given the

  9. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  10. Drug utilization research and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzaglia, Giampiero; Mol, Peter G. M.; Elseviers, Monique; Wettermark, Björn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Andersen, Morten; Benko, Ria; Bennie, Marion; Eriksson, Irene; Godman, Brian; Krska, Janet; Poluzzi, Elisabetta; Taxis, Katja; Vlahovic-Palcevski, Vera; Stichele, Robert Vander

    2016-01-01

    Good risk management requires continuous evaluation and improvement of planned activities. The evaluation impact of risk management activities requires robust study designs and carefully selected outcome measures. Key learnings and caveats from drug utilization research should be applied to the

  11. NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News From NIH NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene Past Issues / Summer 2006 Table of Contents For ... and Alcoholism (NIAAA) have identified a previously unknown gene variant that doubles an individual's risk for obsessive- ...

  12. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  13. Analysis of current research addressing complementary use of life-cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: have lessons been learned from previous experience with chemicals?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko; Christensen, Frans; Baun, Anders; Olsen, Stig I.

    2012-01-01

    While it is generally agreed that successful strategies to address the health and environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (NM) should consider the well-established frameworks for conducting life-cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA), scientific research, and specific guidance on how to practically apply these methods are still very much under development. This paper evaluates how research efforts have applied LCA and RA together for NM, particularly reflecting on previous experiences with applying these methods to chemicals. Through a literature review and a separate analysis of research focused on applying LCA and RA together for NM, it appears that current research efforts have taken into account some key “lessons learned” from previous experience with chemicals while many key challenges remain for practically applying these methods to NM. We identified two main approaches for using these methods together for NM: “LC-based RA” (traditional RA applied in a life-cycle perspective) and “RA-complemented LCA” (conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life-cycle steps). Hence, the latter is the only identified approach which genuinely combines LC- and RA-based methods for NM-risk research efforts to date as the former is rather a continuation of normal RA according to standard assessment procedures (e.g., REACH). Both these approaches along with recommendations for using LCA and RA together for NM are similar to those made previously for chemicals, and thus, there does not appear to be much progress made specific for NM. We have identified one issue in particular that may be specific for NM when applying LCA and RA at this time: the need to establish proper dose metrics within both methods.

  14. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  15. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  17. Social perception risk : evolution of research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prades, A.; Sola, R.

    2004-01-01

    This article shows an overview of the evolution of a research line: the Social Perception of Risk. It starts with a brief reference to the origin and main results of this research field to focus on the crucial challenges we have to face today. Right now we are witnessing a real turning point which is not exclusive of the radiological risk arena. A genuine social change phenomena is leading us a step forward towards the so called risk Governance. (Author)

  18. Maternal age and Alzheimer's disease: a collaborative re-analysis of case-control studies. EURODEM Risk Factors Research Group

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. Rocca; C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); D.G. Clayton (David); V. Chandra; L. Fratiglioni (Laura); A.B. Graves; A. Heyman; A.F. Jorm; E. Kokmen (Emre); K. Kondo; J.A. Mortimer; S.L. Shalat; H. Soininen; A. Hofman (Albert)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractTo investigate the possible association between Alzheimer's disease and late maternal age at index birth, we conducted a collaborative re-analysis of existing case-control data sets. Of the 11 studies participating in the EURODEM project, four were included in the analyses regarding

  19. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  20. Dynamic Risk Identification Using Fuzzy Failure Mode Effect Analysis in Fabric Process Industries: A Research Article as Management Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    A. Sivakumar; S. S. Darun Prakash; P. Navaneethakrishnan

    2015-01-01

    In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity ut...

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  3. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  4. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  5. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  6. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  7. National Research Council Dialogue to Assess Progress on NASA's Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis Capability Roadmap Development: General Background and Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regenie, Victoria

    2005-01-01

    Contents include the following: General Background and Introduction of Capability. Roadmaps for Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis. Agency Objectives. Strategic Planning Transformation. Review Capability Roadmaps and Schedule. Review Purpose of NRC Review. Capability Roadmap Development (Progress to Date).

  8. Risk as a target of safety research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, W.

    1986-01-01

    Job creation is not the idea behind the demand for risk studies to be intensified in safety research. Risks are not only a target safety research should investigate, they are a subject that actually can be most adequately investigated by safety research. Assuming a neutral position between irrational fears and interest-minded problem minimization, that is the central approach and the ethics of a safety scientist. The Babylonian confusion of terminology experienced after the Chernobyl accident is a good example proving the necessity of fostering the neutral professionalism in safety research. (orig./DG) [de

  9. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  10. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  11. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  12. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  13. A Dual Perspective on Risks and Security Within Research Assistantships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Petrus Rossouw

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although research assistantships are considered research learning venues in graduate education, there is a scarcity of literature that examines ethical elements attached to the employment of graduate student research assistants or the position of their research supervisors. This article explores the need to implement formal regulations specific to research assistantships in order to increase security and decrease risks for research assistants and research supervisors. Relationships between research assistants and research supervisors have some similarities with regular employment relationships; yet some distinct differences arise due to the educational and developmental nature of research assistantships. The article is written from a dual perspective reflecting the authors’ roles (a research supervisor and a research assistant, respectively and institutional locations (Faculties of Education in South Africa and Canada. The authors draw from existing literature, an analysis of institutional policies and practices at their universities, and their personal and professional experiences to illustrate risks that research assistants and their supervisors may face within research assistantships. They assess the extent to which existing and proposed policies and practices influence working conditions and safeguard experiences within graduate research assistantships. The findings reveal that research assistantships are a unique form of employment focused on educational and professional development that requires specific documentation of expected standards of practice. The authors argue that lack of clear regulations exposes both parties to unnecessary risks and offer recommendations for creating a “Standards of Good Practice” document that will be useful for individuals engaged in research assistantships.

  14. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  15. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  16. Marketing research cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marić Nebojša

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available One area of applications of cluster analysis in marketing is identification of groups of cities and towns with similar demographic profiles. This paper considers main aspects of cluster analysis by an example of clustering 12 cities with the use of Minitab software.

  17. Marketing research cluster analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marić Nebojša

    2002-01-01

    One area of applications of cluster analysis in marketing is identification of groups of cities and towns with similar demographic profiles. This paper considers main aspects of cluster analysis by an example of clustering 12 cities with the use of Minitab software.

  18. Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquhar, Sebastian; Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

    How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this "apples-to-oranges" risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual-comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation.

  19. MULTILANGUAGE WEBSITE CONCEPT FOR OPERATIONAL IT RISK RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Romānovs, Andrejs; Lektauers, Arnis; Merkurjevs, Jurijs; Klimovs, Ruslans

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents an approach of researches effective organization in sphere of operational IT risk governance. For this purpose, the application of digital multilanguage research area is advised, which can simplify discussion processes for users/researchers from different countries. The concept of multilanguage website is developed based on performed analysis of following modern IT application trends of website development: Web 2.0., social networks, blogs, wiki, etc. Then, practical soluti...

  20. Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R21 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

  1. Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R01 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

  2. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans [European Commission, Brussels (Belgium). DG Research

    2001-07-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable.

  3. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable

  4. Redefining risk research priorities for nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders; Owen, R.

    2010-01-01

    Chemical-based risk assessment underpins the current approach to responsible development of nanomaterials (NM). It is now recognised, however, that this process may take decades, leaving decision makers with little support in the near term. Despite this, current and near future research efforts...

  5. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  6. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  7. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  8. Radon risk communication research: Practical lessons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

    1990-01-01

    Those responsible for state and local radon programs often express frustration about the small share of homes that have been tested for radon, and the small share of those with high readings that have been mitigated. There are now a number of completed studies that have examined how well alternative ways of communicating about radon risk have accomplished the goals of motivating appropriate testing and mitigation. This paper summarizes the research results that are most crucial for planning and implementing effective radon risk communication programs. We identify six reasons why people do not respond to radon as a serious threat and provide some remedies suggested by radon studies

  9. Data at Risk and Research Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, S.

    2017-12-01

    Research libraries have recently engaged in data rescue events amidst growing concerns about access to federal data sets. While these efforts are well intentioned, libraries run the risk of ignoring a long established history of activities and accomplishments by other communities focused on data at risk, many of which are represented at forums such as AGU. Under the auspices of the Data Conservancy, the Sheridan Libraries at Johns Hopkins University hosted an event in July 2017 that convened members of various communities including ESIP, RDA, Data Rescue Boulder, Association of Research Libraries, the Fedora repository platform, the Open Science Framework and the Interplanetary File System or IPFS (via the Data Together Network). This group identified a potential role for research libraries to partner with existing players in the data at risk community by focusing on a distributed preservation network as part of a coordinated collection development program. This session will offer an opportunity to hear about this potential role for research libraries and to provide feedback about its viability and utility.

  10. Euratom Research Contributing to Better Risk Governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

    2003-01-01

    Over the past decade, greater attention has increasingly been given to broader, less technical, issues in determining the scope and content of research carried out under the auspices of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) Framework Programmes. This reflects a more general trend, in particular a need for research to take due account of the ethical, social, legal, regulatory and wider cultural aspects resulting from the development and exploitation of its outcomes. These considerations are fully embedded within the 61 Framework Programme and are matters which must be explicitly addressed by most projects. The increasing importance of these aspects is exemplified by the inclusion in the 6th Framework Programme of 'science and society' and 'citizens and governance in a knowledge based society' as two of its priorities. The paper summarises Euratom research being carried out in the 5th Framework Programme that addresses broader, less technical, issues in particular those that are concerned with better approaches to risk governance and broader stakeholder involvement or participation. This research is mainly being carried out in the areas of radioactive waste management and the management of nuclear emergencies but is complemented by research of a more general nature concerned with risk governance. Further research in these areas will continue in the 61 Frarnework Programme with increasing attention given to how it can be practically exploited

  11. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  12. The relationship between study sponsorship, risks of bias, and research outcomes in atrazine exposure studies conducted in non-human animals: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bero, L; Anglemyer, A; Vesterinen, H; Krauth, D

    2016-01-01

    A critical component of systematic review methodology is the assessment of the risks of bias of studies that are included in the review. There is controversy about whether funding source should be included in a risk of bias assessment of animal toxicology studies. To determine whether industry research sponsorship is associated with methodological biases, the results, or conclusions of animal studies examining the effect of exposure to atrazine on reproductive or developmental outcomes. We searched multiple electronic databases and the reference lists of relevant articles to identify original research studies examining the effect of any dose of atrazine exposure at any life stage on reproduction or development in non-human animals. We compared methodological risks of bias, the conclusions of the studies, the statistical significance of the findings, and the magnitude of effect estimates between industry sponsored and non-industry sponsored studies. Fifty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. There were no differences in methodological risks of bias in industry versus non-industry sponsored studies. 39 studies tested environmentally relevant concentrations of atrazine (11 industry sponsored, 24 non-industry sponsored, 4 with no funding disclosures). Non-industry sponsored studies (12/24, 50.0%) were more likely to conclude that atrazine was harmful compared to industry sponsored studies (2/11, 18.1%) (p value=0.07). A higher proportion of non-industry sponsored studies reported statistically significant harmful effects (8/24, 33.3%) compared to industry-sponsored studies (1/11; 9.1%) (p value=0.13). The association of industry sponsorship with decreased effect sizes for harm outcomes was inconclusive. Our findings support the inclusion of research sponsorship as a risk of bias criterion in tools used to assess risks of bias in animal studies for systematic reviews. The reporting of other empirically based risk of bias criteria for animal studies, such as blinded

  13. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  14. Citation analysis in research evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Moed, Henk F

    2005-01-01

    This book is written for members of the scholarly research community, and for persons involved in research evaluation and research policy. More specifically, it is directed towards the following four main groups of readers: - All scientists and scholars who have been or will be subjected to a quantitative assessment of research performance using citation analysis. - Research policy makers and managers who wish to become conversant with the basic features of citation analysis, and about its potentialities and limitations. - Members of peer review committees and other evaluators, who consider th

  15. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  16. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  17. EMPIRICAL RESEARCH AND CONGREGATIONAL ANALYSIS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    empirical research has made to the process of congregational analysis. 1 Part of this ... contextual congegrational analysis – meeting social and divine desires”) at the IAPT .... methodology of a congregational analysis should be regarded as a process. ... essential to create space for a qualitative and quantitative approach.

  18. Analysis of current research addressing complementary use of life-cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: have lessons been learned from previous experience with chemicals?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko

    2012-01-01

    of research focused on applying LCA and RA together for NM, it appears that current research efforts have taken into account some key ‘‘lessons learned’’ from previous experience with chemicals while many key challenges remain for practically applying these methods to NM. We identified two main approaches...... for using these methods together for NM: ‘‘LC-based RA’’ (traditional RA applied in a life-cycle perspective) and ‘‘RA-complemented LCA’’ (conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life-cycle steps). Hence, the latter is the only identified approach which genuinely combines LC- and RA-based methods......While it is generally agreed that successful strategies to address the health and environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (NM) should consider the well-established frameworks for conducting life-cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA), scientific research, and specific guidance...

  19. Research design and statistical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Myers, Jerome L; Lorch Jr, Robert F

    2013-01-01

    Research Design and Statistical Analysis provides comprehensive coverage of the design principles and statistical concepts necessary to make sense of real data.  The book's goal is to provide a strong conceptual foundation to enable readers to generalize concepts to new research situations.  Emphasis is placed on the underlying logic and assumptions of the analysis and what it tells the researcher, the limitations of the analysis, and the consequences of violating assumptions.  Sampling, design efficiency, and statistical models are emphasized throughout. As per APA recommendations

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  1. [Cluster analysis in biomedical researches].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akopov, A S; Moskovtsev, A A; Dolenko, S A; Savina, G D

    2013-01-01

    Cluster analysis is one of the most popular methods for the analysis of multi-parameter data. The cluster analysis reveals the internal structure of the data, group the separate observations on the degree of their similarity. The review provides a definition of the basic concepts of cluster analysis, and discusses the most popular clustering algorithms: k-means, hierarchical algorithms, Kohonen networks algorithms. Examples are the use of these algorithms in biomedical research.

  2. Managing Risks in SMEs: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Verbano

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In times of crisis, companies need to carefully monitor current expenses and forecast potential costs, which could be caused by risky actions. Risk is inherent in all business functions and in every kind of activity. Knowing how to identify risks, attribute a value and a priority scale, design actions and mechanisms to minimize risks, and continuously monitor them, are essential to guarantee companies’ survival and create sustainable value. This is especially true for small- and medium-sized businesses that are most exposed to the harmful effects of the risks, due to limited resources and structural features. The objective of this study is to analyze available literature on the subject of risk management for small- and medium-sized enterprises from 1999 to 2009. The analysis derives interesting characteristics from the scientific studies, highlighting gaps and guidelines for future research.

  3. Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

    2015-12-01

    This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.

  4. Safety analysis for research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The aim of safety analysis for research reactors is to establish and confirm the design basis for items important to safety using appropriate analytical tools. The design, manufacture, construction and commissioning should be integrated with the safety analysis to ensure that the design intent has been incorporated into the as-built reactor. Safety analysis assesses the performance of the reactor against a broad range of operating conditions, postulated initiating events and other circumstances, in order to obtain a complete understanding of how the reactor is expected to perform in these situations. Safety analysis demonstrates that the reactor can be kept within the safety operating regimes established by the designer and approved by the regulatory body. This analysis can also be used as appropriate in the development of operating procedures, periodic testing and inspection programmes, proposals for modifications and experiments and emergency planning. The IAEA Safety Requirements publication on the Safety of Research Reactors states that the scope of safety analysis is required to include analysis of event sequences and evaluation of the consequences of the postulated initiating events and comparison of the results of the analysis with radiological acceptance criteria and design limits. This Safety Report elaborates on the requirements established in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. NS-R-4 on the Safety of Research Reactors, and the guidance given in IAEA Safety Series No. 35-G1, Safety Assessment of Research Reactors and Preparation of the Safety Analysis Report, providing detailed discussion and examples of related topics. Guidance is given in this report for carrying out safety analyses of research reactors, based on current international good practices. The report covers all the various steps required for a safety analysis; that is, selection of initiating events and acceptance criteria, rules and conventions, types of safety analysis, selection of

  5. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  6. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  7. Discourse Analysis in Ethnographic Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Deborah

    1990-01-01

    Reviews the contribution of ethnographic research to discourse analysis, focusing on discourse practices as a reflection of cultural context; educational applications and the discontinuity issue; literacy as a focus of discourse-oriented ethnographic research; and implications for applied linguistics. A 9-citation annotated and a 50-citation…

  8. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  9. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  10. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  11. Translational research: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendler, M Cecilia; Kirkbride, Geri; Wade, Kristen; Ferrell, Lynne

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND/CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: Little is known about which approaches facilitate adoption and sustainment of evidence-based practice change in the highly complex care environments that constitute clinical practice today. The purpose of this article was to complete a concept analysis of translational research using a modified Walker and Avant approach. DESIGN/DATA COLLECTION: Using a rigorous and thorough review of the recent health care literature generated by a deep electronic search from 2004-2011, 85 appropriate documents were retrieved. Close reading of the articles by three coresearchers yielded an analysis of the emerging concept of translational research. Using the iterative process described by Walker and Avant, a tentative definition of the concept of translational research, along with antecedents and consequences were identified. Implications for health care professionals in education, practice, and research are offered. Further research is needed to determine the adequacy of the definition, to identify empirical referents, and to guide theory development. The study resulted in a theoretical definition of the concept of translational research, along with identification of antecedents and consequences and a description of an ideal or model case to illustrate the definition. Implications for practice and education include the importance of focusing on translational research approaches that may reduce the research-practice gap in health care, thereby improving patient care delivery. Research is needed to determine the usefulness of the definition in health care clinical practice.

  12. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  13. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  14. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  15. Research overview of microblog analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin LIU

    Full Text Available Microblog is one of the important social information communication platform. Because of its characteristics of easy operation and fast spread, people can directly and quickly express their attitude to emergencies, public figures, hot products and daily life through microblog. In order to utilize the vast microblog information, it needs to combine various microblog analysis methods to discover the potential value of information. This paper first reviews the current research of microblog analysis field and puts forward the independent research and development system of microblog analysis, then explores the future research direction of microblog analysis.First of all, this paper introduces two dominating technical methods of microblog analysis, including microblog open platform and web crawler technology. People can have convenient and prompt access to microblog information resources via open interface of microblog, such as microblog content, user reviews, user personal details, the number of fans, the number of attention, etc.. But it also has many limitations. For example, it can only be grabbed for limited times every hour and it is not open for all the resources information. Utilizing the web crawler technology, more information resources can be obtained. For example, the information acquisition technology based on general web crawler can cover a wider range and based on the focused crawler, the predefined theme can be crawled selectively.Secondly, this paper presents the hot issues of current microblog, including analysis on users' behavior and microblog content. Research on microblog user behavior includes: 1 Research on information communication network. Its purpose is to predict future propagation, which uses Gephi visualization tools to present propagation path under microblog diffusion, propagation range and the key of forwarding nodes, etc.. 2 Research on propagation factors. It reveals the possible causes of information

  16. How to ensure that the results of climate risk analysis make a difference? - Experience from applied research addressing the challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Zebisch, Marc; Becker, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Kienberger, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Changing climate conditions may have beneficial or adverse effects on the social-ecological systems we are living in. In any case, the possible effects result from complex and interlinked physical and social processes embedded in these systems. Traditional research addresses these bio-physical and societal issues in a separate way. Therefore, in general, studies on risks related to climate change are still mono-disciplinary in nature with an increasing amount of work following a multi-disciplinary approach. The quality and usefulness of the results of such research for policy or decision making in practice may further be limited by study designs that do not acknowledge appropriately the significance of integrating or at least mixing qualitative and quantitative information and knowledge. Finally, the acceptance of study results - particularly when containing some kind of assessments - is often endangered by insufficient and / or late involvement of stakeholders and users. The above mentioned limitations have often been brought up in the recent past. However, despite that a certain consensus could be achieved in the last years recognising the need to tackle these issues, little progress has been made in terms of implementation within the context of (research) studies. This paper elaborates in detail on reasons that hamper the application of - interdisciplinary (i.e. natural and social science), - trans-disciplinary (i.e. co-production of knowledge) and - integrative (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative approaches) work. It is based on the experience gained through a number of applied climate change vulnerability studies carried out within the context of various GIZ-financed development cooperation projects, a consultancy project for the German Environment Agency as well as the workshop series INQUIMUS, which tackles particularly the issues of mixing qualitative and quantitative research approaches. Potentials and constraints of possible attempts for

  17. Research of the tasks on risk communication enforcement (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Masaru; Aoyama, Isao; Ishizaka, Kaoru; Ohata, Yuki; Fukuike, Iori; Miyagawa, Hiroshi; Ishimori, Yuu

    2017-01-01

    From 1955 to 2001, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) carried out research and development projects related to uranium exploration, mining, refining, conversion and enrichment at/around Ningyo-toge in Japan. Subsequently, JAEA has been carrying out remediation of the uranium mine legacy sites and decommissioning of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities. JAEA has many experiences of communication with local stakeholders from these projects. Among such experiences, management of the waste rock sites became local concern in 1988, 27 years after completion of the exploration. The issue was resolved in 2012 after several efforts. From this experience, it was suggested that the lack of information sharing with local stakeholders and that the inadequate support to stakeholder's requests caused the delay of problem solving. Therefore, sustainable relationship with local stakeholders for over decades is important for JAEA Ningyo-toge Environmental Engineering Center. As reference, similar domestic cases were investigated and strategies for risk communication were planned. As follows; (1) Clarify roles and responsibilities of communication staffs for sustainable communicating with local residents. (2) Identify gaps in risk communication knowledge among center and local residents and work toward filling those gaps. (3) Improve the effectiveness of Ningyo-toge center's website and PR-magazines as primary mechanism for communicating with wide stakeholders. (4) Investigate new communication methods for sustainable communicating, such as combination of environmental restoration studies by experts and environmental learning activities by residents. (author)

  18. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  19. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  20. Independent Risk Factors Contributing to Acute Kidney Injury According to Updated Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 Criteria After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: A Meta-analysis and Meta-regression of 13 Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiayang; Yu, Wenyuan; Zhou, Ye; Yang, Yong; Li, Chenglong; Liu, Nan; Hou, Xiaotong; Wang, Longfei

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to examine the risk factors for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) according to the AKI definition from the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 (VARC-2). A meta-analysis. A total of 661 patients with post-TAVI AKI according to the VARC-2 definition and 2,012 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Patients undergoing TAVI were included in this meta-analysis. Multiple electronic databases were searched using predefined criteria. The diagnosis of AKI was based on the VARC-2 classification. The authors found that preoperative New York Heart Association class IV (odds ratio [OR], 7.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.81-15.85), previous chronic renal disease (CKD) (OR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.96-4.03), and requirement for transfusion (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.59-2.59) were associated significantly with an increased risk for post-TAVI AKI. Furthermore, previous peripheral vascular disease (PVD), hypertension, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and stroke were also risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. Additionally, transfemoral access significantly correlated with a reduced risk for post-TAVI AKI (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.33-0.57). The potential confounders, including Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, aortic valve area, mean pressure gradient, left ventricular ejection fraction, age, body mass index, contrast volume, and valve type, had no impact on the association between the risk factors and post-TAVI AKI. Subgroup analysis of the eligible studies presenting multivariate logistic regression analysis on the independent risk factors for post-TAVI AKI revealed that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access were independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI. The current meta-analysis suggested that previous CKD, previous PVD, and transapical access may be independent risk factors for TAVI-associated AKI

  1. THE EVOLUTION OF RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: CHANGES IN KNOWLEDGE MAPS

    OpenAIRE

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2017-01-01

    One of the leading trends in modern academic research is risk management. Over the years, the approach to risk management has changed and affected many different areas. This study aims to investigate changes in risk management and trends of risk management in the past 20 years. Risk management related publications from 1990 to 2016 were retrieved from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. VOS viewer software was used to analyse the research trend. Literature growth related to risk manageme...

  2. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  3. Solar Market Research and Analysis | Solar Research | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis Solar Market Research and Analysis Through rigorous data collection, analysis, and stakeholder engagement, NREL's Solar Market Research and Analysis efforts further solar technologies' role in solar panels. Key areas for NREL's solar market research and analysis portfolio include the following

  4. Solar Market Research and Analysis Projects | Solar Research | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Market Research and Analysis Projects Solar Market Research and Analysis Projects Solar market research and analysis efforts at NREL seek to further solar technologies' role in supporting a more . Midscale Commercial Market Solar Analysis NREL experts are providing analysis to expand the midscale solar

  5. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruthur, Nisa M; Joy, Susan; Dolan, James; Segal, Jodi B; Shihab, Hasan M; Singh, Sonal

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent with their values and preferences.

  6. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  7. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  8. Solar Market Research and Analysis Publications | Solar Research | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Market Research and Analysis Publications Solar Market Research and Analysis Publications NREL researchers and analysts publish a variety of documents related to solar market research and analysis achieving the SETO 2030 residential PV cost target of $0.05 /kWh by identifying and quantifying cost

  9. The methodology of risk perception research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    1998-01-01

    Risk perception is frequently held to be crucial in the understanding and management of risk in policy contexts. The present paper takes as a starting point the notion that risk perception, of the public, of experts and other special groups, is important and hence the question arises how it should be investigated

  10. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  11. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  12. Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

    2013-06-01

    To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  14. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  15. IN SITU BIOREMEDIATION OF TRICHLOROETHYLENE USING BURKHOLDERIA CEPACIA G4 PR1: ANALYSIS OF MICROBIAL ECOLOGY PARAMETERS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT (RESEARCH BRIEF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The introduction of bacteria into aquifers for bioremediation purposes requires monitoring of the persistence and activity of microbial populations for efficacy and risk assessment purposes. Burkholderia cepacia G4 PR1 constitutively expresses a toluene ortho-monooxygenase (tom) ...

  16. RESEARCH ON RISK CLASSIFICATION METHOD OF ASSEMBLY OCCUPANCIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the densely population and mobility characteristics of the crowd, generally accidents happened in assembly occupancies will trigger a chain reaction, and then bring heavy casualties and property loss, and result disastrous consequences. In the context of safety regulation resources limited, building risk classification system of assembly occupancies is important for "scientific predicting, and hierarchical controlling” In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed using MATLAB GUI to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real-time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. Empirical research shows that, the assembly occupancies risk rating model built in this paper has good effectiveness, simplicity and practicability, applies to the government safety regulation and organization safety management, and can improve the safety situation of assembly occupancies effectively.

  17. Accident analysis in research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adorni, M.; Bousbia-salah, A.; D'Auria, F.; Hamidouche, T.

    2007-01-01

    With the sustained development in computer technology, the possibilities of code capabilities have been enlarged substantially. Consequently, advanced safety evaluations and design optimizations that were not possible few years ago can now be performed. The challenge today is to revisit the safety features of the existing nuclear plants and particularly research reactors in order to verify that the safety requirements are still met and - when necessary - to introduce some amendments not only to meet the new requirements but also to introduce new equipment from recent development of new technologies. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an overview of the accident analysis technology applied to the research reactor, with emphasis given to the capabilities of computational tools. (author)

  18. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  19. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  20. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  1. University of Washington Center for Child Environmental Health Risks Research

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The theme of the University of Washington based Center for Child Environmental Health Risks Research (CHC) is understanding the biochemical, molecular and exposure...

  2. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  3. Interpersonal amplification of risk? Citizen discussions and their impact on perceptions of risks and benefits of a biological research facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Andrew R; Scheufele, Dietram A; Brossard, Dominique; Gunther, Albert C

    2011-02-01

    Much risk communication research has demonstrated how mass media can influence individual risk perceptions, but lacks a comprehensive conceptual understanding of another key channel of communication: interpersonal discussion. Using the social amplification of risk as a theoretical framework, we consider the potential for discussions to function as amplification stations. We explore this possibility using data from a public opinion survey of residents living in potential locations for a new biological research facility in the United States. Controlling for a variety of key information variables, our results show that two dimensions of discussion-frequency and valence-have impacts on residents' perceptions of the facility's benefits and its risks. We also explore the possibility that an individual's overall attitude moderates the effect of discussion on their perceptions of risks and benefits. Our results demonstrate the potential for discussions to operate as amplifiers or attenuators of perceptions of both risks and benefits. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  5. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cloninger, T.H.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

  6. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  7. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  8. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  9. Risk management in higher education and research in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helsloot, I.; Jong, W

    2006-01-01

    This study examines risk in higher education and research on the basis of a classification into three domains. The practical utility of this division into three domains is that it makes it easier to see what risks are unique to higher education (custodianship of knowledge), what risks are dependent

  10. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  11. Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McComas, Katherine A

    2006-01-01

    Ten years ago, scholars suggested that risk communication was embarking on a new phase that would give increased attention to the social contexts that surround and encroach on public responses to risk information. A decade later, many researchers have answered the call, with several defining studies examining the social and psychological influences on risk communication. This article reviews risk communication research appearing in the published literature since 1996. Among studies, social trust, the social amplification of risk framework, and the affect heuristic figured prominently. Also common were studies examining the influence of risk in the mass media. Among these were content analyses of media coverage of risk, as well as investigations of possible effects resulting from coverage. The use of mental models was a dominant method for developing risk message content. Other studies examined the use of risk comparisons, narratives, and visuals in the production of risk messages. Research also examined how providing information about a risk's severity, social norms, and efficacy influenced communication behaviors and intentions to follow risk reduction measures. Methods for conducting public outreach in health risk communication rounded out the literature.

  12. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  13. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  14. The Research Portfolio: Educating Teacher Researchers in Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Alisa J.; Bryant, Jill D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes research on a course assignment, the research portfolio, designed for a two-course teacher research experience in a Masters of Arts in Teaching program. The focus of the assignment is the process of data collection and analysis that is critical to the success of teacher research. We sought a way to help our teacher candidates…

  15. Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    2013-08-07

    Aug 7, 2013 ... pursue their research goals and work in one of IDRC's dynamic program or division teams. ... studying how financial and administrave processes can best support ... idenfying competencies, key success factors or performance ...

  16. Risk Mitigation during Human Electromuscular Incapacitation Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-30

    Research Unit-San Antonio NIJ National Institute of Justice O2 Oxygen pCO2 Partial pressure of carbon dioxide PEA Pulseless electrical...Research Findings Muscle injury can occur before symptoms appear. Blood levels of the proteins , creatine kinase (CK) and myoglobin, are used to...Rhabdomyolysis occurs when the protein myoglobin is released from damaged muscle cells. Myoglobin is injurious to the kidneys. CK is another protein

  17. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  18. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  19. Risk assessment - a research program aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindahl-Kiessling, K.; Ahlborg, U.; Bylin, G.; Ehrenberg, L.; Hemminki, K.; Lindell, B.; Nilsson, Robert; Bostroem, C.E.; Swarn, U.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a new research program for assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants. It is important to develop general methods for quantitative risk assessments and to improve the scientific base materials. (KAE)

  20. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  1. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  2. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  3. Risk for Researchers Studying Social Deviance or Criminal Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia L. Brougham

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Researchers often encounter dangerous situations while conducting social research. The concept of risk to researchers refers to the possible harm that may occur to researchers while in the field or after leaving a research project. This study explores issues experienced by social scientists engaged in research on social deviance or criminal behavior. The goal of this research was to discover the types of risk experienced by social scientists and any mediating factors affecting the experience of risk. An online survey was conducted to gather data on issues experienced by social scientists. This study found that researchers experienced a variety of risks within the categories of physical/health, emotional, legal, and personal/professional. Each of the survey options for risk were reported by at least one respondent; however, the greatest number of risks reported were of an emotional or personal/professional nature. There were no mediating factors found to be significant in relation to the experience of risk. This was a surprising finding especially for the variable of gender as it is suggested that gender plays a role in the experience of difficulties.

  4. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  5. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  6. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  7. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  8. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  9. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  10. Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

    2018-01-01

    The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

  11. Statistical Analysis of Research Data | Center for Cancer Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent advances in cancer biology have resulted in the need for increased statistical analysis of research data. The Statistical Analysis of Research Data (SARD) course will be held on April 5-6, 2018 from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. at the National Institutes of Health's Natcher Conference Center, Balcony C on the Bethesda Campus. SARD is designed to provide an overview on the general principles of statistical analysis of research data.  The first day will feature univariate data analysis, including descriptive statistics, probability distributions, one- and two-sample inferential statistics.

  12. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  13. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  14. Analysis and research status of severe core damage accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-03-01

    The Severe Core Damage Research and Analysis Task Force was established in Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, JAERI, in May, 1982 to make a quantitative analysis on the issues related with the severe core damage accident and also to survey the present status of the research and provide the required research subjects on the severe core damage accident. This report summarizes the results of the works performed by the Task Force during last one and half years. The main subjects investigated are as follows; (1) Discussion on the purposes and necessities of severe core damage accident research, (2) proposal of phenomenological research subjects required in Japan, (3) analysis of severe core damage accidents and identification of risk dominant accident sequences, (4) investigation of significant physical phenomena in severe core damage accidents, and (5) survey of the research status. (author)

  15. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

    2011-01-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  16. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  17. One exhibition, many goals. Combining scientific research and risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Mostert, Erik

    2015-04-01

    How effective is visual communication to increase awareness of natural hazards and risks? To answer this research question, we developed a research design that was at the same time an experimental setting and an actual communication effort. Throughout the full length of the 2-years project held in the Ubaye valley (southeastern France), we collaborated with local and regional stakeholders (politicians and technicians). During a consultation phase, the communication context was determined, the audience of the project was defined and finally the testing activity-communication effort was determined. We were offered the opportunity to design an exhibition for the local public library. In a consultation phase that corresponded to the design of the exhibition, the stakeholders contributed to its content as well as helping with the funding of the exhibition. Finally, during the experimentation phase, the stakeholders participated in advertising the activity, gathering of participants and designing the scientific survey. In order to assess the effects of the exhibition on risk awareness, several groups of children, teenagers and adults were submitted to a research design, consisting of 1) a pre-test, 2) the visit of the exhibition and 3) a post-test similar to the pre-test. In addition, the children answered a second post-test 3 months after the visit. Close ended questions addressed the awareness indicators mentioned in the literature, i.e. worry level, previous experiences with natural hazards events, exposure to awareness raising, ability to mitigate/respond/prepare, attitude to risk, and demographics. In addition, the post-test included several satisfaction questions concerning the visual tools displayed in the exhibition. A statistical analysis of the changes between the pre- and post- tests (paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and bootstrapping) allowed to verify whether the exhibition had an impact on risk awareness or not. In order to deduce which variable

  18. Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit (RMIA ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Jean-Claude Dumais

    2012-09-12

    Sep 12, 2012 ... Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit (RMIA). Deadline: 12 ... management, internal control, and governance processes. ... identifying competencies, key success factors or performance indicators most critical.

  19. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  20. Risk assessment for Argon-41 in RP-10 research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas C, J.; Alarcon V, P.

    1987-01-01

    An evaluation of the radiological risk during normal operations of the Peruvian 10 Mw research reactor was performed. The noble gas, Argon-41 produced from activation of Ar-40 from the air contained in the irradiation tubes, thermal column and coolant, is analyzed as the major source of risk

  1. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  2. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  3. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  4. Transportation Research & Analysis Computing Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The technical objectives of the TRACC project included the establishment of a high performance computing center for use by USDOT research teams, including those from...

  5. Mental health, stress and risk perception: insights from psychological research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, Ortwin

    1997-01-01

    Risk perceptions are only slightly correlated with the expected values of a probability distribution for negative health impacts. Psychometric studies have documented that context variables such as dread or personal control are important predictors for the perceived seriousness of risk. Studies about cultural patterns of risk perceptions emphasize different response set to risk information, depending on cultural priorities such as social justice versus personal freedom. This chapter reports the major psychological research pertaining to the factors that govern individual risk perception and discusses the psychometric effects due to people's risk perception and the experience of severe stress. The relative importance of the psychometric content variables, the signals pertaining to each health risks and symbolic beliefs are explained. (Author)

  6. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  7. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  8. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  9. Design of Process Displays based on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Jette Lundtang

    -tions. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engi-neer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described...

  10. Tritium Research Laboratory safety analysis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, D.A.

    1979-03-01

    Design and operational philosophy has been evolved to keep radiation exposures to personnel and radiation releases to the environment as low as reasonably achievable. Each experiment will be doubly contained in a glove box and will be limited to 10 grams of tritium gas. Specially designed solid-hydride storage beds may be used to store temporarily up to 25 grams of tritium in the form of tritides. To evaluate possible risks to the public or the environment, a review of the Sandia Laboratories Livermore (SLL) site was carried out. Considered were location, population, land use, meteorology, hydrology, geology, and seismology. The risks and the extent of damage to the TRL and vital systems were evaluated for flooding, lightning, severe winds, earthquakes, explosions, and fires. All of the natural phenomena and human error accidents were considered credible, although the extent of potential damage varied. However, rather than address the myriad of specific individual consequences of each accident scenario, a worst-case tritium release caused indirectly by an unspecified natural phenomenon or human error was evaluated. The maximum credible radiological accident is postulated to result from the release of the maximum quantity of gas from one experiment. Thus 10 grams of tritium gas was used in the analysis to conservatively estimate the maximum whole-body dose of 1 rem at the site boundary and a maximum population dose of 600 man-rem. Accidental release of this amount of tritium implies simultaneous failure of two doubly contained systems, an occurrence considered not credible. Nuclear criticality is impossible in this facility. Based upon the analyses performed for this report, we conclude that the Tritium Research Laboratory can be operated without undue risk to employees, the general public, or the environment. (ERB)

  11. Tritium Research Laboratory safety analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, D.A.

    1979-03-01

    Design and operational philosophy has been evolved to keep radiation exposures to personnel and radiation releases to the environment as low as reasonably achievable. Each experiment will be doubly contained in a glove box and will be limited to 10 grams of tritium gas. Specially designed solid-hydride storage beds may be used to store temporarily up to 25 grams of tritium in the form of tritides. To evaluate possible risks to the public or the environment, a review of the Sandia Laboratories Livermore (SLL) site was carried out. Considered were location, population, land use, meteorology, hydrology, geology, and seismology. The risks and the extent of damage to the TRL and vital systems were evaluated for flooding, lightning, severe winds, earthquakes, explosions, and fires. All of the natural phenomena and human error accidents were considered credible, although the extent of potential damage varied. However, rather than address the myriad of specific individual consequences of each accident scenario, a worst-case tritium release caused indirectly by an unspecified natural phenomenon or human error was evaluated. The maximum credible radiological accident is postulated to result from the release of the maximum quantity of gas from one experiment. Thus 10 grams of tritium gas was used in the analysis to conservatively estimate the maximum whole-body dose of 1 rem at the site boundary and a maximum population dose of 600 man-rem. Accidental release of this amount of tritium implies simultaneous failure of two doubly contained systems, an occurrence considered not credible. Nuclear criticality is impossible in this facility. Based upon the analyses performed for this report, we conclude that the Tritium Research Laboratory can be operated without undue risk to employees, the general public, or the environment

  12. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  14. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  15. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  16. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  17. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  18. RESEARCH NOTE Molecular genetic analysis of consanguineous ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Navya

    Molecular genetic analysis of consanguineous families with primary microcephaly ... Translational Research Institute, Academic Health System, Hamad Medical ..... bridging the gap between homozygosity mapping and deep sequencing.

  19. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  20. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  1. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  2. DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS IN MARKETING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika KULCSÁR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper classifies among marketing researches aiming to study the influence that the following independent variables (explanatory have: "Estimating the expenses incurred in Centre Development Region, including country of residence" and the variable "How many days have you planned to stay in this region?" on the construction of separate groups which form the dependent variables - the type of tourist (foreign, Romanian. Thus I shall analyse the explication of the different characteristics of the groups in terms of different attributes that members of these groups have with respect to the independent variables (explanatory. Questionnaires have been distributed to hotels in Braşov, Predeal, Poiana-Braşov, Sfântu Gheorghe, Covasna, Miercurea-Ciuc, Gheorgheni, Tuşnad, Târgu-Mureş, Sighişoara, Sibiu, Alba – Iulia and other localities that have linked this route. More than 2,000 questionnaires have been distributed. The quantitative research was conducted between 15.05.2009-17.10.2009.

  3. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  4. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  5. Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

  6. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  7. Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI). Strategic research agenda for low dose radiation risk research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreuzer, M. [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, BfS, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Neuherberg (Germany); Auvinen, A. [University of Tampere, Tampere (Finland); STUK, Helsinki (Finland); Cardis, E. [ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona (Spain); Durante, M. [Institute for Fundamental Physics and Applications, TIFPA, Trento (Italy); Harms-Ringdahl, M. [Stockholm University, Centre for Radiation Protection Research, Stockholm (Sweden); Jourdain, J.R. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, IRSN, Fontenay-aux-roses (France); Madas, B.G. [MTA Centre for Energy Research, Environmental Physics Department, Budapest (Hungary); Ottolenghi, A. [University of Pavia, Physics Department, Pavia (Italy); Pazzaglia, S. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy); Prise, K.M. [Queens University Belfast, Belfast (United Kingdom); Quintens, R. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium); Sabatier, L. [French Atomic Energy Commission, CEA, Paris (France); Bouffler, S. [Public Health England, PHE, Chilton (United Kingdom)

    2018-03-15

    MELODI (Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative) is a European radiation protection research platform with focus on research on health risks after exposure to low-dose ionising radiation. It was founded in 2010 and currently includes 44 members from 18 countries. A major activity of MELODI is the continuous development of a long-term European Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) on low-dose risk for radiation protection. The SRA is intended to identify priorities for national and European radiation protection research programs as a basis for the preparation of competitive calls at the European level. Among those key priorities is the improvement of health risk estimates for exposures close to the dose limits for workers and to reference levels for the population in emergency situations. Another activity of MELODI is to ensure the availability of European key infrastructures for research activities, and the long-term maintenance of competences in radiation research via an integrated European approach for training and education. The MELODI SRA identifies three key research topics in low dose or low dose-rate radiation risk research: (1) dose and dose rate dependence of cancer risk, (2) radiation-induced non-cancer effects and (3) individual radiation sensitivity. The research required to improve the evidence base for each of the three key topics relates to three research lines: (1) research to improve understanding of the mechanisms contributing to radiogenic diseases, (2) epidemiological research to improve health risk evaluation of radiation exposure and (3) research to address the effects and risks associated with internal exposures, differing radiation qualities and inhomogeneous exposures. The full SRA and associated documents can be downloaded from the MELODI website (http://www.melodi-online.eu/sra.html). (orig.)

  8. Power Analysis Software for Educational Researchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chao-Ying Joanne; Long, Haiying; Abaci, Serdar

    2012-01-01

    Given the importance of statistical power analysis in quantitative research and the repeated emphasis on it by American Educational Research Association/American Psychological Association journals, the authors examined the reporting practice of power analysis by the quantitative studies published in 12 education/psychology journals between 2005…

  9. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  10. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Using the Boxplot analysis in marketing research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Cristinel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the needs of decision makers inside the companies, marketing research is meant to provide the best information that really can to help the adoption of thebest decisions. In this respect a lot of methods of data analysis can be used but the researcher has to choose those results that minimize the errors. This paper proposes an instrumental research regarding the using of Boxplot analysis to identify certain outliers that can alter the information. In order to attain the objective of this research, we exemplified the Boxplot analysis on data related to the GDP recorded in 2014 by Romanian counties.

  12. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  13. Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ki Moon; Kwon, TaeWoo; Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

    2017-01-01

    Expert's risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public's risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts' radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual's opinions have often exacerbated the public's confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years' research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects perception of radiation exposure.

  14. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  15. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  16. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  17. Instrumental neutron activation analysis in environmental research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruin, M. de.

    1985-01-01

    The main characteristics of instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA),relevant for environmental research and monitoring, was reviewed and discussed-sensitivity, suitable for detection of many toxic elements, the low risks of contamination of element loss, lack of matrix effects, lack of light element interference except for 24 Na, capability for multi-element determination, comparatively low costs. A detailed description of the IRI analysis system for routine INAA is given. The system is based on the single comparator method of standartization to take full advantage of multi-element without preparation and use the trace element standards. Zinc was used as mono element standard, the element concentrations are calculated on the basis of 65 Zn and 69m Zn-activities. The irradiations were carried out in a thermal neutron flux of 1.10 13 n/cm 2 .s. The gamma spectra is converted into element concentrations using a set of dedicated software, performing the following functions: spectrum analysis and interpretation, comparison and combination of the intermediate results from different decay times, generation of the final report, bookkeeping of the results obtained. The main applications of the INAA system mentioned are: identification of sources of heavy metal air pollution using air filters or biological indicators such as mosses, lichens, toe-nails, bird feathers, molusks and waterplants; and study of the uptake and translocation of heavy element in plants. Special attention was paid to mathematical techniques for a reliable interpretation of the element concentration patterns observed in sets of lichen samples. Future developments in INAA in environmental science are briefly mentioned

  18. Supply Chain Risk Management: Literature Review and Future Research

    OpenAIRE

    Iwan Vanany; Suhaiza Zailani; Nyoman Pujawan

    2009-01-01

    Supply chain risk management has increasingly becoming a more popular research area recently. Various papers, with different focus and approaches, have been published since a few years ago. This paper aims to survey supply chain risk management (SCRM) literature. Paper published in relevant journals from 2000 to 2007 are analysed and classified into five categories: conceptual, descriptive, empirical, exploratory cross-sectional, and exploratory longitudinal. We also looked at the papers in t...

  19. Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

    2005-05-01

    This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research

  20. Europe at risk (Following EU-Funded Research on Hazard and Risks)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delmonaco, G.; Atun, F.; Ceudech, A.; Deeming, H.; Roo, A.P.J. de; Lumbroso, D.; Galderisi, A.; Kallache, M.; Kropp, J.P.; Kundak, S.; Molinari, D.; Tweed, F.; Wade, S.; Walker, G.; Dandoulaki, M.; Barredo, J.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter regarding present risk conditions, has been structured using significant “images” of Europe, addressing the hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors recognised as crucial components of any risk assessment. To draw such a picture, results of past research at the European level were

  1. Using research for successful Medicare and Medicaid risk marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, S; Nelson, A M; Wood, S D

    1996-01-01

    Medicare/Medicaid risk marketing is a vital business challenge, one that countless managed care organizations are facing right now. Early entry into new markets and aggressive participation in existing markets are essential to meet competitive pressures. Health plans intent on success in government risk programs should conduct research to learn the medical needs, wants, and desires of older persons in the geographic area they serve. Original, market-specific research yields critical marketing and clinical data that can be used to improve care and member satisfaction along with customer loyalty and retention.

  2. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  3. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  4. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  5. The roles of NRC research in risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, D.L.; Murphy, J.A.; Hodges, M.W.; Cunningham, M.A.; Drouin, M.T.; Ramey-Smith, A.M.; VanderMolen, H.

    1997-01-01

    The NRC is expanding the use of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) throughout the spectrum of its regulatory activities. The NRC's research program in PRA supports this expansion in a number of ways, from performing basic research to developing guidance for regulatory applications. The author provides an overview of the NRC's PRA research program, then focuses on two key activities - the review of individual plant examinations, and the development of guidance for use of PRA in reactor regulation

  6. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  7. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2014-08-01

    In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  10. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  11. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  12. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  13. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  14. Antepartum Fetal Monitoring and Spectral Analysis of Preterm Birth Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Păsăricără, Alexandru; Nemescu, Dragoş; Arotăriţei, Dragoş; Rotariu, Cristian

    2017-11-01

    The monitoring and analysis of antepartum fetal and maternal recordings is a research area of notable interest due to the relatively high value of preterm birth. The interest stems from the improvement of devices used for monitoring. The current paper presents the spectral analysis of antepartum heart rate recordings conducted during a study in Romania at the Cuza Voda Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinical Hospital from Iasi between 2010 and 2014. The study focuses on normal and preterm birth risk subjects in order to determine differences between these two types or recordings in terms of spectral analysis.

  15. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Valdir Maciel; Agostinho Angelo Sordi, Gian Maria; Moralles, Mauricio; Filho, Tufic Madi

    2012-06-01

    This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64.

  17. A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes, V. M.; Sordi, G. M. A. A.; Moralles, M.; Filho, T. M.

    2012-01-01

    This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64. (authors)

  18. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  20. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  1. Video micro analysis in music therapy research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holck, Ulla; Oldfield, Amelia; Plahl, Christine

    2004-01-01

    Three music therapy researchers from three different countries who have recently completed their PhD theses will each briefly discuss the role of video analysis in their investigations. All three of these research projects have involved music therapy work with children, some of whom were on the a...... and qualitative approaches to data collection. In addition, participants will be encouraged to reflect on what types of knowledge can be gained from video analyses and to explore the general relevance of video analysis in music therapy research.......Three music therapy researchers from three different countries who have recently completed their PhD theses will each briefly discuss the role of video analysis in their investigations. All three of these research projects have involved music therapy work with children, some of whom were...

  2. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  3. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  4. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  5. Gesture analysis for physics education researchers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel E. Scherr

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Systematic observations of student gestures can not only fill in gaps in students’ verbal expressions, but can also offer valuable information about student ideas, including their source, their novelty to the speaker, and their construction in real time. This paper provides a review of the research in gesture analysis that is most relevant to physics education researchers and illustrates gesture analysis for the purpose of better understanding student thinking about physics.

  6. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  7. EGYPTIAN MUTUAL FUNDS ANALYSIS: HISTORY, PERFORMANCE, OBJECTIVES, RISK AND RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru STEFEA

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present research aims to overview the mutual fund in Egypt. The establishment of the first mutual funds was achieved in 1994. Nowadays, the total mutual funds reached 90 funds , approximately. The income funds represent the largest share of the Egyptian mutual funds (40%, growth funds (25% and the private equity funds is at least (1%. The total population of the Egyptian mutual funds reached 22. Finally, the study proved that the Egyptian mutual funds have an impact on fund return , total risk and systemic; when analysis relationship between risk and return. The study found influencing for mutual fund's objectives on Sharpe and Terynor ratios.

  8. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  9. Partnering for Research: A Critical Discourse Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, Catherine J.; English, Leona M.

    2008-01-01

    Using a critical discourse analysis, informed by poststructuralist theory, we explore the research phenomenon of coerced partnership. This lens allows us to pay attention to the social relations of power operating in knowledge generation processes, especially as they affect feminist researchers in adult education. We propose an alternative vision…

  10. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  11. Principles, application areas and an example of risk assessment conducted at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greiner, Matthias; Paisley, Larry; Nørgaard, Julie Hostrup

    2004-01-01

    The Department for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) is concerned with risk analyses in the areas of food safety, zoo noses, antimicrobial resistance and OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) list A and B diseases. The DFVF...... is responsible for the risk assessment component of the risk analysis process and provides advice and support for the risk management and risk communication component, which is generally under the auspices of the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration (DVFA). The paper presents guidelines for the conduct...

  12. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Odds versus risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Pramesh, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    In biomedical research, we are often interested in quantifying the relationship between an exposure and an outcome. “Odds” and “Risk” are the most common terms which are used as measures of association between variables. In this article, which is the fourth in the series of common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we explain the meaning of risk and odds and the difference between the two. PMID:26623395

  13. The Austrian Research Centers activities in energy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sdouz, Gert

    1998-01-01

    Among the institutions involved in energy analyses in Austria the risk context is being treated by three different entities: the Energy Consumption Agency, internationally known as EVA, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency, or Urnweltbundesarnt assessing mainly the environmental risks involved and the Austrian Research Centers, working on safety and risk evaluation. The Austrian Research Center Seibersdorf draws form its proficiency in Reactor Safety and Fusion Research, two fields of experience it has been involved in since its foundation, for some 40 years now. Nuclear energy is not well accepted by the Austrian population. Therefore in our country only energy systems with advanced safety level might be accepted in the far future. This means that the development of methods to compare risks is an important task. The characteristics of energy systems featuring advanced safety levels are: A very low hazard potential and a focus on deterministic safety instead of probabilistic safety, meaning to rely on inherently safe physics concepts, confirmed by probabilistic safety evaluation results. This can be achieved by adequate design of fusion reactors, advanced fission reactors and all different renewable sources of energy

  14. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  15. Risk Management Analysis on the Car Drivers in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Kuntohadi, Hendro; Pahala, Yosi; Sitanggang, Rohana

    2015-01-01

    Car drivers in Indonesia will always face many kinds of risks. This research contains the context determination of this research, identifies all the significant risks, measures the frequency and impact of all the risks, draws all the identified risks in the chart, and describes how to manage or mitigate the risks. The dangerous risks which have high frequency and high impact are: 1) Many car drivers get the driving license without taking a driving course and without learning carefully the the...

  16. Mediation Analysis in Psychosomatic Medicine Research

    OpenAIRE

    Lockhart, Ginger; MacKinnon, David P.; Ohlrich, Vanessa

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an overview of statistical mediation analysis and its application to psychosomatic medicine research. The article begins with a description of the major approaches to mediation analysis and an evaluation of the strengths and limits of each. Emphasis is placed on longitudinal mediation models, and an application using latent growth modeling is presented. The article concludes with a description of recent developments in mediation analysis and suggestions for the use of me...

  17. Genre analysis of linguistics research introductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Porras

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of exploring genre analysis has been a trend in Applied Linguistics, not only for its interesting factor, but also because of its pedagogical implications. This study aimed to determine the overall structure, specifically the presence and conformity of moves and steps of the research introductions in the field of Linguistics. Twelve (12 available research introductions were analyzed using Create-A-Research-Space (CARS model. The findings revealed that moves and steps across the research introductions are present. Majority of the research introductions conformed to the CARS model, but did not necessarily follow the suggested sequence. Results imply that teachers of research writing should acknowledge and introduce the CARS model as a basis for teaching the method of writing research introductions effectively.

  18. Applied regression analysis a research tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pantula, Sastry; Dickey, David

    1998-01-01

    Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to...

  19. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  20. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  1. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  2. Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1984-01-01

    The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

  3. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  4. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  5. Activation Analysis and Nuclear Research in Burma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thiele, R. W.

    1971-07-01

    Research endeavours in the field of Nuclear Sciences in Burma appear to be concentrated in three main Institutions. These are the Chemistry and Physics Departments of the Rangoon Arts & Science University and the Union of Burma Applied Research Institute (UBARI). In view of possible forthcoming developments an expanded research programme, which is to be implemented on the basis of a five year plan, has been drawn up. Research topics included in this programme are predominantly of practical interest and aimed at a contribution by nuclear methods, in particular activation analysis, to the technological and industrial needs of the country.

  6. 'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubé, Karine; Taylor, Jeff; Sylla, Laurie; Evans, David; Dee, Lynda; Burton, Alasdair; Willenberg, Loreen; Rennie, Stuart; Skinner, Asheley; Tucker, Joseph D; Weiner, Bryan J; Greene, Sandra B

    2017-01-01

    Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV), biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists. We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory. We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1) Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2) Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3) Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4) PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders. Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers, clinicians

  7. 'Well, It's the Risk of the Unknown… Right?': A Qualitative Study of Perceived Risks and Benefits of HIV Cure Research in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Dubé

    Full Text Available Biomedical research towards an HIV cure is advancing in the United States and elsewhere, yet little is known about perceptions of risks and benefits among potential study participants and other stakeholders. We conducted a qualitative study to explore perceived risks and benefits of investigational HIV cure research among people living with HIV (PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists.We conducted a qualitative research study using in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of PLWHIV, biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists in 2015-2016. We analysed interview transcripts using thematic analysis anchored in grounded theory.We conducted and analyzed 36 key informant interviews. Qualitative analysis revealed four main findings. 1 Potential HIV cure study volunteers noted needing more information and education about the potential risks of HIV cure research. 2 Biomedical HIV cure researchers, policy-makers and bioethicists showed less awareness of social and financial risks of HIV cure research than PLWHIV. 3 Most respondents across the different categories of informants identified some risks that were too great to be acceptable in HIV cure research, although a subset of PLWHIV did not place an upper limit on acceptable risk. 4 PLWHIV showed a better awareness of potential psychological benefits of participating in HIV cure research than other groups of stakeholders.Our research suggests that PLWHIV have a variable understanding of the individual risks, sometimes substantial, associated with participating in biomedical HIV cure research studies. Community engagement and increased research literacy may help improve community understanding. Intensive informed consent procedures will be necessary for ethical study implementation. The current state of HIV cure research offers greater potential benefits to society than to participants. There is likely to be disagreement among regulators, researchers

  8. Rutgers Young Horse Teaching and Research Program: sustainability of taking a risk with "at risk" horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralston, Sarah L; Molnar, Anne

    2012-12-01

    In 1999, the Young Horse Teaching and Research Program (YHTRP) was initiated at Rutgers University. The unique aspect of the program was using horses generally considered "at risk" and in need of rescue, but of relatively low value. The risks of using horses from pregnant mare urine (PMU) ranches and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) mustangs were high, but, ultimately, unrealized. No students or staff members were seriously injured over the course of the next 12 yr, and the horses were sold annually as highly desirable potential athletes or pleasure horses, usually at a profit. The use of "at risk" horses generated a significant amount of positive media attention and attracted substantial funding in the form of donations and sponsorships, averaging over $60,000 (USD)per year. Despite economic downturns, public and industry support provided sustainability for the program with only basic University infrastructural support. Taking the risk of using "at risk" horses paid off, with positive outcomes for all.

  9. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  10. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  11. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  12. Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

  13. Rethinking Risk: Prospect Theory Application in Health Message Framing Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Nancy Grant; Kerr, Anna M

    2017-02-01

    Although prospect theory conceptualizes risk as uncertainty, health message framing research based on the theory typically conceptualizes risk as severity. This study reports the results of two experiments designed to explore these alternative conceptualizations of risk and their effect on health decision making. Participants (N 1  = 768, N 2  = 532) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that presented a hypothetical scenario of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) outbreak. The conditions were defined by message prompt (deadly vs. easily curable STD) and response option frame (gain vs. loss). Participants selected which of two programs (certain outcome vs. uncertain outcome) they would prefer to combat the outbreak. Across both experiments, participants expressed strong preferences for certain (low risk) outcomes in the gain-framed conditions and no preferences in the loss-framed conditions. These differences held regardless of the consequence severity of the scenario. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results and offer directions for future research.

  14. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  15. Data Analysis in Experimental Biomedical Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markovich, Dmitriy

    This thesis covers two non-related topics in experimental biomedical research: data analysis in thrombin generation experiments (collaboration with Novo Nordisk A/S), and analysis of images and physiological signals in the context of neurovascular signalling and blood flow regulation in the brain...... to critically assess and compare obtained results. We reverse engineered the data analysis performed by CAT, a de facto standard assay in the field. This revealed a number of possibilities to improve its methods of data analysis. We found that experimental calibration data is described well with textbook...

  16. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  17. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  18. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  19. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  20. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey; Smith, Curtis; Groth, Katrina

    2015-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  1. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  2. HSE assessment of explosion risk analysis in offshore safety cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brighton, P.W.M.; Fearnley, P.J.; Brearley, I.G. [Health and Safety Executive, Bootle (United Kingdom). Offshore Safety Div.

    1995-12-31

    In the past two years HSE has assessed around 250 Safety Cases for offshore oil and gas installations, building up a unique overview of the current state of the art on fire and explosion risk assessment. This paper reviews the explosion risk methods employed, focusing on the aspects causing most difficulty for assessment and acceptance of Safety Cases. Prediction of overpressures in offshore explosions has been intensively researched in recent years but the justification of the means of prevention, control and mitigation of explosions often depends on much additional analysis of the frequency and damage potential of explosions. This involves a number of factors, the five usually considered being: leak sizes; gas dispersion; ignition probabilities; the frequency distribution of explosion strength; and the prediction of explosion damage. Sources of major uncertainty in these factors and their implications for practical risk management decisions are discussed. (author)

  3. Center for risk research: A review of work 1988-1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-01-01

    This report gives a summary of the research published during the first 4 years of the Center for Risk Research at the Stockholm School of Economics. Risk research carried out so far at the Center has been concerned with mapping of attitudes and risk perceptions with regard to nuclear risks, AIDS, military flight risks, and economic risks. There has also been some methodological work and some work on the relationship between risk perception and interests

  4. Center for risk research: A review of work 1988-1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-01-01

    This report gives a summary of the research published during the first 4 years of the Center for Risk Research at the Stockholm School of Economics. Risk research carried out so far at the Center has been concerned with mapping of attitudes and risk perceptions with regard to nuclear risks, AIDS, military flight risks, and economic risks. There has also been some methodological work and some work on the relationship between risk perception and interests.

  5. A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Engineering Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belter, C. W.; Seidel, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    The past five years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of media and scientific publications on the topic of climate engineering, or geoengineering, and some scientists are increasingly calling for more research on climate engineering as a possible supplement to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this context, understanding the current state of climate engineering research can help inform policy discussions and guide future research directions. Bibliometric analysis - the quantitative analysis of publications - is particularly applicable to fields with large bodies of literature that are difficult to summarize by traditional review methods. The multidisciplinary nature of the published literature on climate engineering makes it an ideal candidate for bibliometric analysis. Publications on climate engineering are found to be relatively recent (more than half of all articles during 1988-2011 were published since 2008), include a higher than average percentage of non-research articles (30% compared with 8-15% in related scientific disciplines), and be predominately produced by countries located in the Northern Hemisphere and speaking English. The majority of this literature focuses on land-based methods of carbon sequestration, ocean iron fertilization, and solar radiation management and is produced with little collaboration among research groups. This study provides a summary of existing publications on climate engineering, a perspective on the scientific underpinnings of the global dialogue on climate engineering, and a baseline for quantitatively monitoring the development of climate engineering research in the future.

  6. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  7. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  8. Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries.

  9. Current Research Status of KHNP for Site Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Kyemin; Jeon, Ho-Jun; Bahng, Ki-In; Na, Jang-Hwan

    2016-01-01

    In Korea, by the geographical characteristics, many Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been constructed and operated at a single site. This is above average level or number of plants per site in the world. For this reason, the public concerns for the safety of nuclear facilities increased after Fukushima Daiichi accident. As a result, comprehensive risk assessment and management for the site which have multi-unit NPPs were strongly asked. Currently, to solve it, many researches and projects has carried out by various Korean companies, research centers, and regulatory authorities. In this paper, R and D plans of KHNP for multi-unit risk were summarized. Firstly, the needs of multi-unit PSA were reviewed. R and D activities and plans of KHNP were summarized in the last part. In this paper, we summarized the R and D plans of KHNP for assessing the multi-unit risk. Currently, multi-unit risk or multi-unit PSA are important and practical issues in both nuclear industry and national energy policy. After Fukushima accident, several countries stopped the construction and the operation of NPPs, other countries which is maintaining the NPPs are being strongly asked to assess the risk for multi-unit NPPs at the same site. Because of Korean geographical characteristics, the number of NPPs which are above average level or number of plants per site in the world is being constructed and operated at a single site. The population density nearby each site is considered to be higher than that of other countries

  10. Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

    2017-01-01

    Expert’s risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public’s risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts’ radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual’s opinions have often exacerbated the public’s confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years’ research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects risk perception of radiation exposure. PMID:28166286

  11. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  12. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  13. Review of European research trends of low dose radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

    2010-01-01

    Large research projects on low dose radiation effects in Europe and US over the past decade have provided limited scientific knowledge which could underpin the validation of radiation protection systems. Recently in Europe, there have been repeated discussions and dialogues to improve the situation, and as the consequence, the circumstances surrounding low dose radiation risks are changing. In 2009, Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI) was established as a trans-national organization capable of ensuring appropriate governance of research in the pursuit of a long term shared vision, and Low Dose Research towards Multidisciplinary Integration (DoReMi) network was launched in 2010 to achieve fairly short term results in order to prove the validity of the MELODI approach. It is expected to be very effective and powerful activities to facilitate the reduction of uncertainties in the understanding of low dose risks, but the regulatory requests rushing the reinforcement of radiological protection regulations based on the precautional principles are more increasing. To develop reasonable radiological protection systems based on scientific evidences, we need to accelerate to collect scientific evidences which could directly underpin more appropriate radiation protection systems even in Japan. For the purpose, we Japan need to develop from an independent standpoint and share as a multidisciplinary vision a long term and holistic research strategy which enables to enhance Japanese advantages such as low dose rate facilities and animal facilities, as soon as possible. (author)

  14. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  15. 2013 Nutrition Risk Research Plan Review Final Report. Research Plan Review for: The Risk Factor of Inadequate Nutrition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The 2013 Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) was impressed by the degree of progress the nutrition discipline has made with the research plan presented since the 2012 Nutrition Risk SRP WebEx/teleconference. The scientists and staff associated with the nutrition discipline have, in addition, continued their impressive publication track record. Specifically the SRP found that the novel and important progress in the ocular health research area (Gap N7.3) represents an important advance in understanding the etiology and potential countermeasures for this condition and thinks that the work will not only be valuable for vision, but may have implications for cardiovascular health, as well. The SRP also considered the bone countermeasure data presented a potentially valuable tool for investigating bone metabolism under the unique conditions of space travel, specifically the innovation of variable use of stable Ca isotopes for bone synthesis and equal contribution for bone to investigate bone metabolism, as well as, the impact of the advanced resistive exercise device (ARED) on body composition during spaceflight. Finally, the SRP considers the planned Integrated Nutrition task to be an important and necessary strategic part of the research plan. The SRP is concerned that the risks observed in previous research on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) may not capture all the risks of longer duration flight beyond LEO. In particular, the SRP believes that there may be a much greater likelihood of an intensified chronic inflammatory response compared to the very minimal evidence seen to date and that modest effects seen in LEO, such as the reduction in appetite, may not predict an absence in longer duration flight out of LEO. The added complications of longer duration flight, greater bio-behavioral stress, radiation exposure, poorer communication, and inability to respond to unforeseen exigencies may create different risks. Thus, preparation for

  16. Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

    2010-01-01

    To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. [Discourse analysis: research potentialities to gender violence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Azambuja, Mariana Porto Ruwer; Nogueira, Conceição

    2009-01-01

    In the last few years we see the growing use of the terms 'discourse' and 'discourses analysis' in academic and research contexts, frequently without a precise definition. This fact opens space for critics and mistakes. The aim of this paper is to show a brief contextualization of discursive studies, as well as tasks/steps to Discourse Analysis process by the Social Construcionism perspective. As examples we used fragments of an interview with a Family Doctor about gender violence. In the results we detach the potential of Discourse Analysis to deconstruct the existing discourses to subsequently (re)construction in the way to a more holistic view about gender violence problem.

  18. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  19. Gesture Analysis for Physics Education Researchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherr, Rachel E.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic observations of student gestures can not only fill in gaps in students' verbal expressions, but can also offer valuable information about student ideas, including their source, their novelty to the speaker, and their construction in real time. This paper provides a review of the research in gesture analysis that is most relevant to…

  20. Research reactor job analysis - A project description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoder, John; Bessler, Nancy J.

    1988-01-01

    Addressing the need of the improved training in nuclear industry, nuclear utilities established training program guidelines based on Performance-Based Training (PBT) concepts. The comparison of commercial nuclear power facilities with research and test reactors owned by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), made in an independent review of personnel selection, training, and qualification requirements for DOE-owned reactors pointed out that the complexity of the most critical tasks in research reactors is less than that in power reactors. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) started a project by commissioning Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) to conduct a job analysis survey of representative research reactor facilities. The output of the project consists of two publications: Volume 1 - Research Reactor Job Analysis: Overview, which contains an Introduction, Project Description, Project Methodology,, and. An Overview of Performance-Based Training (PBT); and Volume 2 - Research Reactor Job Analysis: Implementation, which contains Guidelines for Application of Preliminary Task Lists and Preliminary Task Lists for Reactor Operators and Supervisory Reactor Operators

  1. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt

    2001-01-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis. In this respect there is a

  2. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  3. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  4. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  5. Supply chain risk management: review, classification and future research directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittal, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to be more efficient, firms have adopted strategies such as outsourcing, global partnerships and lean practices. Although such strategies have tremendous abilities to improve the efficiencies but simultaneously they make the firms vulnerable to market uncertainties, dependencies and disruptions. Moreover, natural calamities and manmade crises have also put negative impact on strategic, operational and tactical performance of supply chains. These factors have triggered the interest of academia and industry to consider the risk issues as prime concerns. To capture the more fine-grained elements of diversified risk issues related to the supply chain we employ a multi-layered top town taxonomy to classify and codify the literature and put forward the probable dimensions for future research. We further study the pool of SCRM literature focusing on coordination, decision making and sector-wise SCRM implementation issues and derive relevant propositions.

  6. Concurrent analysis: towards generalisable qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowden, Austyn; Martin, Colin R

    2011-10-01

    This study develops an original method of qualitative analysis coherent with its interpretivist principles. The objective is to increase the likelihood of achieving generalisability and so improve the chance of the findings being translated into practice. Good qualitative research depends on coherent analysis of different types of data. The limitations of existing methodologies are first discussed to justify the need for a novel approach. To illustrate this approach, primary evidence is presented using the new methodology. The primary evidence consists of a constructivist grounded theory of how mental health nurses with prescribing authority integrate prescribing into practice. This theory is built concurrently from interviews, reflective accounts and case study data from the literature. Concurrent analysis. Ten research articles and 13 semi-structured interviews were sampled purposively and then theoretically and analysed concurrently using constructivist grounded theory. A theory of the process of becoming competent in mental health nurse prescribing was generated through this process. This theory was validated by 32 practising mental health nurse prescribers as an accurate representation of their experience. The methodology generated a coherent and generalisable theory. It is therefore claimed that concurrent analysis engenders consistent and iterative treatment of different sources of qualitative data in a manageable manner. This process supports facilitation of the highest standard of qualitative research. Concurrent analysis removes the artificial delineation of relevant literature from other forms of constructed data. This gives researchers clear direction to treat qualitative data consistently raising the chances of generalisability of the findings. Raising the generalisability of qualitative research will increase its chances of informing clinical practice. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  8. Multivariate Analysis and Machine Learning in Cerebral Palsy Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral palsy (CP, a common pediatric movement disorder, causes the most severe physical disability in children. Early diagnosis in high-risk infants is critical for early intervention and possible early recovery. In recent years, multivariate analytic and machine learning (ML approaches have been increasingly used in CP research. This paper aims to identify such multivariate studies and provide an overview of this relatively young field. Studies reviewed in this paper have demonstrated that multivariate analytic methods are useful in identification of risk factors, detection of CP, movement assessment for CP prediction, and outcome assessment, and ML approaches have made it possible to automatically identify movement impairments in high-risk infants. In addition, outcome predictors for surgical treatments have been identified by multivariate outcome studies. To make the multivariate and ML approaches useful in clinical settings, further research with large samples is needed to verify and improve these multivariate methods in risk factor identification, CP detection, movement assessment, and outcome evaluation or prediction. As multivariate analysis, ML and data processing technologies advance in the era of Big Data of this century, it is expected that multivariate analysis and ML will play a bigger role in improving the diagnosis and treatment of CP to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, and enhance patient care for children with CP.

  9. Multivariate Analysis and Machine Learning in Cerebral Palsy Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Cerebral palsy (CP), a common pediatric movement disorder, causes the most severe physical disability in children. Early diagnosis in high-risk infants is critical for early intervention and possible early recovery. In recent years, multivariate analytic and machine learning (ML) approaches have been increasingly used in CP research. This paper aims to identify such multivariate studies and provide an overview of this relatively young field. Studies reviewed in this paper have demonstrated that multivariate analytic methods are useful in identification of risk factors, detection of CP, movement assessment for CP prediction, and outcome assessment, and ML approaches have made it possible to automatically identify movement impairments in high-risk infants. In addition, outcome predictors for surgical treatments have been identified by multivariate outcome studies. To make the multivariate and ML approaches useful in clinical settings, further research with large samples is needed to verify and improve these multivariate methods in risk factor identification, CP detection, movement assessment, and outcome evaluation or prediction. As multivariate analysis, ML and data processing technologies advance in the era of Big Data of this century, it is expected that multivariate analysis and ML will play a bigger role in improving the diagnosis and treatment of CP to reduce mortality and morbidity rates, and enhance patient care for children with CP.

  10. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  12. Schedule Risk Analysis Of Southern Mainway Construction In Jember Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susilo, K.; Wiguna, I. P. A.; Adi, T. J. W.

    2017-11-01

    In Jember Regency, it has been built Southern Cross Road (JLS) as part of regional project. On the implementation of previous construction, there were still some events which gave negative impact to the project. The purpose of this research is to analyze risk and its effect on schedule at the construction phase of JLS at Jember Regency. Risk identification process is carried out by site survey, literature studies and supporting data. The use of Probability and Impact Matrix were aimed to obtain the level of risk. Based on the analysis, it was obtained six highest risk that could affecting schedule, such as difficult access locations, heavy rains, increases of material price, broken road pavement work, change order, and work accident. Risk responses were proposed by applying agreement to guarantee stock and price of materials, prioritized drainage, and constructing bridge to solve difficult access. An intense coordination in the site, routine checks of quality, manufacturing of retailing walls were also needed to reduce possibility of distruption to pavement work. To avoid work accident, it is needed to socialize about harsh terrain condition, mutual allertness among supervisor, worker and the others, and also all personals must comply with savety rules.

  13. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  14. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  15. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  16. Development of a risk monitor for research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawal, Mayank; Mathur, D.; Joshi, N.S.; Varde, P.V.

    2014-01-01

    The traditional approach to engineering asset management, which primarily includes management and operation and maintenance activities, in a nuclear plant is based on engineering judgment. Here, the defence-in-depth and conservative criteria form the basis of decisions. Ideally, it is expected that the decisions should be based on performance of systems, structures and components (SSC), which should also take plant safety margin into consideration. Probabilistic methods are widely used as a compliment to deterministic methods in assessing safety of nuclear reactors. A risk-based operations and maintenance management system has been developed for a research reactor. The results of a level-1 PSA study in terms of minimal cut-set equations along with other engineering plant information forms major input for this system. The system is expected to be operational in plant control room conditions in support of routine decisions. This paper presents one of the main applications of the plant Level-1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment, developed from plant specific data i.e. a risk monitor. The risk monitor has several applications that support in decision making. It is expected that the use of this system in real-time scenario will provide improved understanding of safety on one hand while enabling enhancement of plant economics on the other. Some the case studies are discussed here. (author)

  17. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  18. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  19. Conjoint Analysis for Marketing Research in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vithala R. Rao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This article offers a review from 1971 to the present, methods of conjoint analysis approaches that are data collection based on stated preferences or choices by consumers. Thousands of studies have been performed using conjoint analysis, since the introduction of the method in the early 70's This set of methods allows market researchers to study trade-off between the attributes of new products, and is useful for various decisions marketing to product design, pricing and market segmentation. The current set of options conjoint analysis is made by the traditional approach stated preference, the discrete choices techniques (or CBCA choice based conjoint analysis which are based on choices declared by self-explanatory approach which uses direct elicitation of importance attributes and evaluation levels of the attributes and the adaptive approach (ACA or adaptive conjoint analysis that involves data collection in stages and adaptive. This article summarizes these methods and their recent developments and presents an application in the Brazilian Market. Given the versatility of the method, there is huge potential for marketing research in Brazil. Essentially, this methodology is alive and growing. 

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Alberg Østergaard, Poul

    2015-01-01

    This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out b...... by 11 university and industry partners has improved the basis for decision-making within energy planning and energy scenario making by providing new and improved tools and methods for energy systems analyses.......This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out...

  2. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  3. Research reactor operations for neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tv'ehlov, Yu.

    2002-01-01

    The IAEA Special Manual devoted to quality control during neutron activation analysis (NAA) on research and test reactors is discussed. Three parts of the publication involve presentation of common rules for performance of NAA, quantitative and qualitative analyses, statistic and systematic errors, safety regulations and radioactive waste management. Besides, the publication contains practical manual for the performance of NAA, and examples of different NAA regulating registration forms are presented [ru

  4. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  5. ANALYTICAL ISSUES OF RISK COMMUNICATION. RATIONALE FOR APPROACHES TO DEVELOPING RESEARCH DATABASES ON RADIATION SAFETY AND SOCIAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Rekhtina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important stages of risk communication is the analysis of publications in traditional media and the Internet, which largely shape people’s attitudes to various issues. At the same time, the availability of large amounts of information relating to any subject area complicates the possibility of manual analysis and adequate description of all of the information. On the other hand, the availability of information causes the urgency of developing methods to improve the effectiveness of its analysis. One way to automate the analysis of large amounts of information is the development of databases or automated information systems containing information materials on the subject matter under study and suggesting the possibility of automated processing. The objective of this work is to analyze the experience of developing such systems and databases by the research teams of the St. Petersburg Institute of Radiation Hygiene and St. Petersburg State University and to identify key features of the use of bases Data for social research. The results of the analysis showed that the methodological approaches used were very close. The analysis is performed according to the method of autoethnographical research. The strategy application of the comparative analysis allows identifying common features characterizing the situation of development and implementation of databases to practice of the risk communication studies. The article discusses the features associated with them, the limitations of the primary data, such as text, discursive nature of most of the materials, information noise, high dependence on context, variability, different structure, format and appearance of materials. The important parameters for solving problems of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are given in the article. An important condition of creating effective, from the point of view of socio-communication studies information system is to implement the processing

  6. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  7. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  8. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  9. Ethical aspects in tissue research: thematic analysis of ethical statements to the research ethics committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Many studies have been published about ethics committees and the clarifications requested about the submitted applications. In Finland, ethics committees require a separate statement on ethical aspects of the research in applications to the ethics committee. However, little is known about how researchers consider the ethical aspects of their own studies. Methods The data were collected from all the applications received by the official regional ethics committee in the Hospital District of Northern Savo during 2004–2009 (n = 688). These included a total of 56 studies involving research on tissue other than blood. The statements by the researchers about the ethics about their own research in these applications were analyzed by thematic content analysis under the following themes: recruitment, informed consent, risks and benefits, confidentiality and societal meaning. Results The researchers tended to describe recruitment and informed consent process very briefly. Usually these descriptions simply stated who the recruiter was and that written consent would be required. There was little information provided on the recruitment situation and on how the study recruiters would be informed. Although most of the studies were clinical, the possibility was hardly ever discussed that patients could fail to distinguish between care and research. Conclusion The written guidelines, available on the webpages of the ethics committee, do not seem to be enough to help researchers achieve this goal. In addition to detailed guidelines for researchers, investigators need to be taught to appreciate the ethical aspects in their own studies. PMID:22873761

  10. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  11. Fault tree analysis of a research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, J.A.; O'Dacre, D.F.; Chenier, R.J.; Arbique, G.M.

    1986-08-01

    Fault Tree Analysis Techniques have been used to assess the safety system of the ZED-2 Research Reactor at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories. This turned out to be a strong test of the techniques involved. The resulting fault tree was large and because of inter-links in the system structure the tree was not modularized. In addition, comprehensive documentation was required. After a brief overview of the reactor and the analysis, this paper concentrates on the computer tools that made the job work. Two types of tools were needed; text editing and forms management capability for large volumes of component and system data, and the fault tree codes themselves. The solutions (and failures) are discussed along with the tools we are already developing for the next analysis

  12. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  13. Safety Analysis Report: X17B2 beamline Synchrotron Medical Research Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gmuer, N.F.; Thomlinson, W.

    1990-02-01

    This report contains a safety analysis for the X17B2 beamline synchrotron medical research facility. Health hazards, risk assessment and building systems are discussed. Reference is made to transvenous coronary angiography

  14. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  15. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  16. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  17. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  18. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  19. Cytogenetic Analysis for Research and Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sultana MH Faradz

    2017-02-01

    malignancy is indicated to support diagnosis, select therapy regimen, and elaborate prognosis. Specific chromosome translocations have been identified for hematologic malignancy. The breakpoints of several of these translocations have been cloned. Several loci of oncogene have been identified and sequenced.  Molecular genetic analysis will replace cytogenetic analysis and shift the requirement for studying metaphase cells. Therefore, chromosome analysis in genetic disease and cancer should be attained with advanced molecular techniques, such as Fluorescence In Situ Hybridization (FISH and microarray CGH analysis.  Cytogenetic analysis is still useful and applicable in genetic disease diagnosis, sexual assignment, and hematologic malignancy in the laboratory with minimal equipments. Molecular analysis as a part of health care services in Indonesia has been limited in research centers in university setting; therefore, a comprehensive diagnosis with genetic analysis has often been improbable. Keywords: cytogenetics, chromosome, syndrome, DSD, hematologic malignancy

  20. Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae

    2002-01-01

    A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities

  1. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  2. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  3. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  4. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  5. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station has used PRA-derived risk insights for about 10 years now. The plant originally started applying PRA modeling to an auxiliary feedwater system during the initial licensing phases of the plant, and as a result of that, they were able to work with the NRC and apply some graded quality requirements to that particular system. There was a third redundant auxiliary feedwater pump, and they now can treat that system as partially safety related and partially non-safety related. So it was an advance for Palo Verde at that time to be able to make decisions with a PRA and they began learning how to use those techniques. After completing the IPE it became natural for the plant to make a transition into other areas at the plant to look for areas where the insights gained from PRA could be applied into their decision-making processes. Those that the plant embarked upon initially were areas where they could gain operational risk assessment insights. The author goes on to discuss experiences gained in using these techniques to better assess the safety of operations within the plant. In addition he offers comments on areas which need further development and research to make them more applicable to a plant by plant basis

  6. Risk and protective factors, longitudinal research, and bullying prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ttofi, Maria M; Farrington, David P

    2012-01-01

    This chapter presents the results from two systematic/meta-analytic reviews of longitudinal studies on the association of school bullying (perpetration and victimization) with adverse health and criminal outcomes later in life. Significant associations between the two predictors and the outcomes are found even after controlling for other major childhood risk factors that are measured before school bullying. The results indicate that effective antibullying programs should be encouraged. They could be viewed as a form of early crime prevention as well as an early form of public health promotion. The findings from a systematic/meta-analytic review on the effectiveness of antibullying programs are also presented. Overall, school-based antibullying programs are effective, leading to an average decrease in bullying of 20 to 23 percent and in victimization of 17 to 20 percent. The chapter emphasizes the lack of prospective longitudinal research in the area of school bullying, which does not allow examination of whether any given factor (individual, family,. or social) is a correlate, a predictor, or a possible cause for bullying. This has important implications for future antibullying initiatives, as well as implications for the refinement of theories of school bullying. It is necessary to extend the framework of the traditional risk-focused approach by incorporating the notion of resiliency and investigating possible protective factors against school bullying and its negative consequences. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  7. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  8. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  9. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  10. INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON "OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ASIA RISK MANAGEMENT"

    OpenAIRE

    DESHENG DASH WU; DAVID L. OLSON; LUIS A. SECO; JOHN BIRGE

    2011-01-01

    Risks are traditionally defined as the combination of probability and severity, but are actually characterized by additional factors. We believe the characteristics of risks include uncertainties, dynamics, dependence, clusterings and complexities, which motivate the utilization of various operational research tools. The objective of this issue is to survey the practice of using operational research tools in risk management, especially Asian risk management.

  11. Precarious beginnings: Gendered risk discourses in psychiatric research literature about postpartum depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godderis, Rebecca

    2010-09-01

    The transition to motherhood in western society is particularly informed by risk-based scientific and medical discourses and, as a result, women are especially subject to rationalities and practices that are employed in the name of risk. The aim of this article is to examine the gendered risk discourses that are embedded in one aspect of medicalized mothering - the postpartum period. This article interrogates three key elements of the discursive construction of postpartum depression (PPD) in contemporary psychiatric research literature (approximately 1980-2007). Specifically, I examine how risk-based reasoning is incorporated into the concepts of the postpartum triad and the high-risk mother, and how arguments about why PPD is a 'significant social problem' create a tension between the rights of the mother and those of the child. By placing women in a position to manage certain types of risks related to the postpartum period, these discourses serve to responsibilize women and structure their subjectivities in gendered ways.This analysis contributes to a growing literature that investigates how assumptions about gender, race, class and sexuality are produced and re-produced through the notion of risk.

  12. Quantitative phase analysis in industrial research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Monshi

    1996-01-01

    X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) is the only technique able to identify phase and all the other analytical techniques give information about the elements. Quantitative phase analysis of minerals and industrial products is logically the next step after a qualitative examination and is of great importance in industrial research. Since the application of XRD in industry, early in this century, workers were trying to develop quantitative XRD methods. In this paper some of the important methods are briefly discussed and partly compared. These methods are Internal Standard, Known Additions, Double Dilution, External Standard, Direct Comparison, Diffraction Absorption and Ratio of Slopes

  13. Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Simon; Argyris, Nikolaos; Haywood, Stephanie M; Hort, Matthew C; Smith, Jim Q

    2017-10-23

    In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  15. The nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange risk management research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yi

    2012-01-01

    To manage and control foreign exchange rate risk under the floating exchange rate system, historical simulation method of VaR model has been utilized to evaluate the nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange risk and the risk causation has been analyzed. Finally, the measure of enhancing the nuclear power corporation's foreign exchange rate risk management level has been exposed for sharing. (author)

  16. STAR: Software Toolkit for Analysis Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doak, J.E.; Prommel, J.M.; Whiteson, R.; Hoffbauer, B.L.; Thomas, T.R.; Helman, P.

    1993-01-01

    Analyzing vast quantities of data from diverse information sources is an increasingly important element for nonproliferation and arms control analysis. Much of the work in this area has used human analysts to assimilate, integrate, and interpret complex information gathered from various sources. With the advent of fast computers, we now have the capability to automate this process thereby shifting this burden away from humans. In addition, there now exist huge data storage capabilities which have made it possible to formulate large integrated databases comprising many thereabouts of information spanning a variety of subjects. We are currently designing a Software Toolkit for Analysis Research (STAR) to address these issues. The goal of STAR is to Produce a research tool that facilitates the development and interchange of algorithms for locating phenomena of interest to nonproliferation and arms control experts. One major component deals with the preparation of information. The ability to manage and effectively transform raw data into a meaningful form is a prerequisite for analysis by any methodology. The relevant information to be analyzed can be either unstructured text structured data, signals, or images. Text can be numerical and/or character, stored in raw data files, databases, streams of bytes, or compressed into bits in formats ranging from fixed, to character-delimited, to a count followed by content The data can be analyzed in real-time or batch mode. Once the data are preprocessed, different analysis techniques can be applied. Some are built using expert knowledge. Others are trained using data collected over a period of time. Currently, we are considering three classes of analyzers for use in our software toolkit: (1) traditional machine learning techniques, (2) the purely statistical system, and (3) expert systems

  17. IPRs in biobanking- risks and opportunities for translational research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minssen, Timo; Verlinden, Michiel; Huys, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    The gradual shift from traditional closed innovation systems to more “open” and “transparent” innovation models, rapid technological advances and bio-pharmaceutical innovation gaps have highlighted the importance of an effective governance and use of biobanks. This raises important legal questions...... such as how to deal with intellectual property rights (‘IPRs’) that might arise out of the collection and use of samples and data in research. Only a few projects highlighted the opportunities and potential benefits of user-generated solutions and proper governance of IPRs. This paper aims to provide...... an overview and analysis of the most relevant IPRs in biobanking and to discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with an effective use of biobanks in translational research and innovation. Section 1 specifies challenges in finding a balance between an open and a close collaboration model. Section 2...

  18. Current products and future plan of regulatory research for risk-informed regulation in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Key Yong; Lee, Chang Ju; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2003-01-01

    The first phase of a regulatory research project for risk-informed regulation (RIR) and applications (RIA) was finished in March of 2002. Various results that could be useful for preparing Korean RIR system have been developed. One of the remarkable outputs is development of reactor safety goals and acceptance criteria for RIR and RIA in Korea. The Safety Goal has a 4-tier hierarchical structure and each tier has specified goals classified for their usage. Regulatory review guides for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) including level-1, level-2 and low power and shutdown PSA have been updated by reflecting new information obtained from not only the overseas documents but also experience and insights from regulatory review in Korea. In addition, draft regulatory guides for risk-informed in-service inspection, in-service testing, importance ranking of motor-operated valves, and AOT/STI change of Technical Specifications have been developed for preparing ongoing and future licensing work. Risk-based inspection guides with inspection items selected from a viewpoint of risk importance have been suggested for Korean standard NPPs as well. In the second phase of a research project (April of 2002 to March of 2005), two regulatory research projects on RIR were initiated. One is a study on institutionalization of risk-informed and performance-based regulation. Main topics of this project are evaluation of benefit and characteristics of RIR, development of optimized Korean RIR model, impact analysis for the change of current regulation framework, and suggestion of RIR-related laws and rules. The other is focusing on the development in the areas of a regulatory audit PSA model and regulatory guides for risk monitoring, and application techniques of risk information to the significance determination of plant performance indicators and inspection findings. It is expected that a concrete scheme and detailed regulatory techniques for embodiment of RIR system in Korea will be

  19. Integrating a gender dimension into osteoporosis and fracture risk research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geusens, Piet; Dinant, Geertjan

    2007-01-01

    , including bone densitometry and clinical risk factors, are much better documented at the population level in women than in men. Drug therapies that reduce the risk of a broad spectrum of fractures, even in the short term, are more clearly demonstrated in randomized controlled studies in women than in men. Drug therapy is more widely available for women with osteoporosis,but it is rarely given to men with osteoporosis. Differences in the perception of osteoporosis between men and women are even less well documented. In general, osteoporosis is underdiagnosed and undertreated in women but even more so in men, and is related to limits in the patient's and the physician's awareness at all clinical stages, from case finding to compliance with and persistence of therapy. Furthermore, the lay perception of a healthy lifestyle, the level of social isolation, networking within the health care system, and opportunities for screening appear to contribute to gender differences in participating in osteoporosis prevention and therapy. These aspects of health care deserve further attention and research.

  20. Managing Security Risks in an Industrial Investment – Analysis Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Dragomir

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper achieved an analysis of some important management strategies for an investment, in correlation with index of global pollution. Environmental security assessment shall be determined taking into account the workplace security and effects on health, safety of workers in an industry investment. It is necessary to observe and collect a larger number of data generated by the development of an industrial process, so as to make a deep analysis on global pollution index and how it is affected industrial investment environment. This research shows how can the substances that infest the environment to produce much damage and influence the environmental factors (air, water, soil, landscape, fauna and flora. When we know the risks that characterize the plant equipment, we can protect the life and we can protect the environment for a sustainable development in the future.

  1. Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzulāns Juris

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

  2. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1fk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisa M Maruthur

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent

  3. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  4. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  9. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  10. Risk Factor Research and Prevention for Anxiety Disorders: Introduction to the Special Series on Risk and Prevention of Anxiety Pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Norman B.; Zvolensky, Michael J.

    2007-01-01

    In relation to treatment-related research in the United States, there is relatively little systematic effort focused on the combination of risk and prevention for anxiety pathology. This article broadly discusses risk factor research and prevention program development for anxiety psychopathology. The authors also specifically discuss papers in…

  11. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  12. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  14. POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

  15. Research on Risk Management and Power Supplying Enterprise Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jianfei; Wang, Yige

    2017-09-01

    This paper derived from the background that electric power enterprises strengthen their risk management under requirements of the government. For the power industry, we explained the risk management theory, analysed current macro environment as well as basic situation, then classified and interpreted the main risks. In a case study on a power bureau, we established a risk management system based on deep understanding about the characteristics of its organization system and risk management function. Then, we focused on risks in operation as well as incorrupt government construction to give a more effective framework of the risk management system. Finally, we came up with the problems and specific countermeasures in risk management, which provided a reference for other electric power enterprises.

  16. Factors influencing parents' decision to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Linda A; Pearce, Margaret M

    2014-11-01

    To examine factors that influence a parent's decision to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research. Grounded theory, using semi-structured interviews conducted with 35 postpartum mother or mother-father dyads in an urban teaching hospital. Data were collected from July 2011 to January 2012. Audiorecorded semistructured interviews were conducted in private rooms with mothers or mother-father dyads 24 to 48 hr after the birth of their healthy, full-term infant. Data-driven content analysis using selected principles of grounded theory was performed. Parents' willingness to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk pediatric genetic research emerged as a process involving three interacting components: the parents, the scientist, and the comfort of the child embedded within the context of benefit to the child. The purpose of the study and parents' perception of their commitment of time and resources determined their willingness to participate. The scientist's ability to communicate trust in the research process influenced parents' decisions. Physical discomfort of the child shaped parents' decision to donate DNA. Parental perception of a direct benefit to their child affected their willingness to discuss genetic research and its outcomes. Significant gaps and misunderstandings in parental knowledge of pediatric genetic research may affect parental willingness to donate their healthy child's DNA. Nurses knowledgeable about the decision-making process parents utilize to donate their healthy infant's DNA for minimal-risk genetic research and the factors influencing that decision are well positioned to educate parents about the role of genetics in health and illness and reassure potential research participants of the value and safeguards in pediatric genetic research. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  17. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  18. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  19. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  20. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  1. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Research efforts for the resolution of hydrogen risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seong-Wan Hong

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available During the past 10 years, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI has performed a study to control hydrogen gas in the containment of the nuclear power plants. Before the Fukushima accident, analytical activities for gas distribution analysis in experiments and plants were primarily conducted using a multidimensional code: the GASFLOW. After the Fukushima accident, the COM3D code, which can simulate a multidimensional hydrogen explosion, was introduced in 2013 to complete the multidimensional hydrogen analysis system. The code validation efforts of the multidimensional codes of the GASFLOW and the COM3D have continued to increase confidence in the use of codes using several international experimental data. The OpenFOAM has been preliminarily evaluated for APR1400 containment, based on experience from coded validation and the analysis of hydrogen distribution and explosion using the multidimensional codes, the GASFLOW and the COM3D. Hydrogen safety in nuclear power has become a much more important issue after the Fukushima event in which hydrogen explosions occurred. The KAERI is preparing a large-scale test that can be used to validate the performance of domestic passive autocatalytic recombiners (PARs and can provide data for the validation of the severe accident code being developed in Korea.

  3. Research effects for the resolution of hydrogen risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Seong Wan; Kim, Jong Tae; Kang, Hyung Seok; Na, Young Su; Song, Jin Ho [Division of Severe Accident and PHWR Safety Research, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    During the past 10 years, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has performed a study to control hydrogen gas in the containment of the nuclear power plants. Before the Fukushima accident, analytical activities for gas distribution analysis in experiments and plants were primarily conducted using a multidimensional code: the GASFLOW. After the Fukushima accident, the COM3D code, which can simulate a multidimensional hydrogen explosion, was introduced in 2013 to complete the multidimensional hydrogen analysis system. The code validation efforts of the multidimensional codes of the GASFLOW and the COM3D have continued to increase confidence in the use of codes using several international experimental data. The OpenFOAM has been preliminarily evaluated for APR1400 containment, based on experience from coded validation and the analysis of hydrogen distribution and explosion using the multidimensional codes, the GASFLOW and the COM3D. Hydrogen safety in nuclear power has become a much more important issue after the Fukushima event in which hydrogen explosions occurred. The KAERI is preparing a large-scale test that can be used to validate the performance of domestic passive autocatalytic recombiners (PARs) and can provide data for the validation of the severe accident code being developed in Korea.

  4. Research effects for the resolution of hydrogen risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Seong Wan; Kim, Jong Tae; Kang, Hyung Seok; Na, Young Su; Song, Jin Ho

    2015-01-01

    During the past 10 years, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has performed a study to control hydrogen gas in the containment of the nuclear power plants. Before the Fukushima accident, analytical activities for gas distribution analysis in experiments and plants were primarily conducted using a multidimensional code: the GASFLOW. After the Fukushima accident, the COM3D code, which can simulate a multidimensional hydrogen explosion, was introduced in 2013 to complete the multidimensional hydrogen analysis system. The code validation efforts of the multidimensional codes of the GASFLOW and the COM3D have continued to increase confidence in the use of codes using several international experimental data. The OpenFOAM has been preliminarily evaluated for APR1400 containment, based on experience from coded validation and the analysis of hydrogen distribution and explosion using the multidimensional codes, the GASFLOW and the COM3D. Hydrogen safety in nuclear power has become a much more important issue after the Fukushima event in which hydrogen explosions occurred. The KAERI is preparing a large-scale test that can be used to validate the performance of domestic passive autocatalytic recombiners (PARs) and can provide data for the validation of the severe accident code being developed in Korea.

  5. Audit Manager Risk Behaviour in a Global Economy – a Research of the Theories on the Determinants of Risk Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Ionescu Iancu Octavian

    2010-01-01

    In an increasingly globalised economy, the quality and professionalism of business decisions are intrinsically linked to the risk behaviour of decision makers. The business decision makers are usually faced with a degree of uncertainty when they have to assess risk and make decisions. This paper examines risk behaviour from an audit firm manager perspective and from an academic perspective. The emphasis is on the managerial risk behaviour in business decision making. The research objective is...

  6. Environmental health research in Japan - management of environmental risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Masahisa [Lake Biwa Research Institute (Japan)

    1997-12-31

    Briefly discussed the topics on emerging environmental health risks, their assessment and management, with special emphasis on groundwater management , environmental contamination, source protection, new drinking water and ambient water quality standards; and sophistication in instrumentation in environmental quality measurements, hazards and risk assessment and control, technology development in environmental health risk management.

  7. Environmental health research in Japan - management of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masahisa Nakamura

    1996-01-01

    Briefly discussed the topics on emerging environmental health risks, their assessment and management, with special emphasis on groundwater management , environmental contamination, source protection, new drinking water and ambient water quality standards; and sophistication in instrumentation in environmental quality measurements, hazards and risk assessment and control, technology development in environmental health risk management

  8. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  9. Safety- and Risk Analysis Activities in Chemical Industry in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozine, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Lauridsen Kurt [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Systems Analysis Department

    2001-07-01

    The current paper gives an overview of the legislation and the methods used in safety and risk management in the chemical industry within Europe and in particular within the European Union. The paper is based on a report that has been written for the SOS-1 project under the Nordic nuclear safety research (NKS). Safety- and risk-related matters in the process industry, in particular, in chemical, within the EU are subject to consideration at three levels: (1) EU legislation, (2) European/intemational standardisation, and (3) socio-economic analysis. EC Directives define the 'essential requirements', e.g., protection of health and safety, that must be fulfilled when goods are placed on the market or some industry is put into operation. The European standards bodies (CEN, CENELEC and ETSI) have the task of establishing the corresponding technical specifications, meeting the essential requirements of the Directives, compliance with which will provide a presumption of conformity with the essential requirements. Such specifications are referred to as 'harmonised standards'. Compliance with harmonised standards remains voluntary, and manufacturers are free to choose any other technical solution that provides compliance with the essential requirements. This view is stated in the 'New Approach' to technical harmonisation and standardisation (details can be found on the web page: http://europe.eu.int/comm/enterprise/newapproach/standardization/index .html). Standardisation as well as the regulation of technical risks is increasingly being undertaken at European or international level. The European legislator limits its role to the affirmation of overall objectives, and leaves it to the economic players to draw up the technical procedures and standards to specify in detail the ways and means of attaining them. Many countries have introduced requirements that new legislation and/or administrative regulations be subject to socio-economic analysis

  10. Disability Evaluation Systems Analysis and Research Annual Report 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-21

    Army and Air Force had higher percentages of reserve component disability evaluations, likely due to the inclusion of National Guard service members...Annual Report 2015 Disability Evaluation Systems Analysis and Research Prepared by Accession Medical Standards Analysis and Research Activity...Preventive Medicine Branch Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Silver Spring, Maryland Disability Evaluation Systems Analysis and Research

  11. Disability Evaluation System Analysis and Research Annual Report 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-11

    Inclusion of laboratory and diagnostic information on the medical condition or injury that precipitated the disability evaluation in each service’s...Annual Report 2015 Disability Evaluation Systems Analysis and Research Prepared by Accession Medical Standards Analysis and Research Activity...Preventive Medicine Branch Walter Reed Army Institute of Research Silver Spring, Maryland Disability Evaluation Systems Analysis and Research

  12. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  13. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  14. Summary of process research analysis efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, D. R.

    1985-01-01

    A summary of solar-cell process research analysis efforts was presented. Process design and cell design are interactive efforts where technology from integrated circuit processes and other processes are blended. The primary factors that control cell efficiency are: (1) the bulk parameters of the available sheet material, (2) the retention and enhancement of these bulk parameters, and (3) the cell design and the cost to produce versus the finished cells performance. The process sequences need to be tailored to be compatible with the sheet form, the cell shape form, and the processing equipment. New process options that require further evaluation and utilization are lasers, robotics, thermal pulse techniques, and new materials. There are numerous process control techniques that can be adapted and used that will improve product uniformity and reduced costs. Two factors that can lead to longer life modules are the use of solar cell diffusion barriers and improved encapsulation.

  15. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. The Analysis of Research on Internet Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vida Davidavičienė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The targeted development of internet marketing faces the dynamic environment and its alterations that occur both – in business terms and conditions and in the use of e­tools and applicable concepts. The growing importance of internet marketing is indicated by a growth in e­markets, an increasing number of new generation consumers, investments of organizations in e­based decisions, a strong interest of scientists representing different fields as well as by widening the base of knowledge related to the above introduced phenomenon. Despite a continuously increasing amount of scientific literature on Internet marketing, this area of research is still at the initial stage. The article is aimed at analysing the fields of ongoing researches into Internet marketing and at identifying the areas required for deeper examination. The article has applied for the methods such as a comparative analysis and summary of scientific literature, information comparison and techniques for grouping and the graphical visualization of information.

  17. Neutronics analysis of Nigerian Research Reactor-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azande, T.S.; Balogun, G.I.

    2010-01-01

    Feasibility studies for the conversion of the Nigerian Research Reactor-1 (NIRR-1) have been performed using WIMS and CITATION codes (Azande et al, 2009 and Balogun, 2003) at the Centre for Energy Research and Training (CERT), Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Kaduna State. In this work, the neutronics analysis of NIRR-1 core concerning mass loading of U-235 in the core, shut down margin (SDM), safety reactivity factor (SRF), control rod worth, and control rod critical depth of insertion were investigated at low enrichment. Two fuel types (UAl 4 and UO 2 ) were considered and the uranium densities required for the conversion of NIRR-1 core to low enrichment were computed to be 1201g/cc with 20% enrichment, 1144 g/cc with 19.75% enrichment, 1274 g/cc with 15% enrichment, 1448 g/cc with 10% enrichment for UAl 4 fuel type and 1141g/cc with 20% enrichment, 1144 g/cc with 19.75% enrichment, 1216 g/cc with 15% enrichment, and 1389 g/cc with 10% enrichment for UO 2 fuel type. Signi ficantly, higher uranium densities are required to convert NIRR-1 from HEU to LEU - indicating a drastic review of the NIRR-1 core.

  18. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  19. Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

    2017-06-01

    For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Reduce the risk of stock trading by using technical analysis in iran's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reduce the risk of stock trading by using technical analysis in iran's stock market. ... In this research, efficiency of 50 active companies of Tehran Stock ... With this observation, this research suggest forming a portfolio with zero cost by purchasing ... FAQ's · More about AJOL · AJOL's Partners · Terms and Conditions of Use ...

  1. Metabolomic Analysis in Brain Research: Opportunities & Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine G Vasilopoulou

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Metabolism being a fundamental part of molecular physiology, elucidating the structure and regulation of metabolic pathways is crucial for obtaining a comprehensive perspective of cellular function and understanding the underlying mechanisms of its dysfunction(s. Therefore, quantifying an accurate metabolic network activity map under various physiological conditions is among the major objectives of systems biology in the context of many biological applications. Especially for CNS, metabolic network activity analysis can substantially enhance our knowledge about the complex structure of the mammalian brain and the mechanisms of neurological disorders, leading to the design of effective therapeutic treatments. Metabolomics has emerged as the high-throughput quantitative analysis of the concentration profile of small molecular weight metabolites, which act as reactants and products in metabolic reactions and as regulatory molecules of proteins participating in many biological processes. Thus, the metabolic profile provides a metabolic activity fingerprint, through the simultaneous analysis of tens to hundreds of molecules of pathophysiological and pharmacological interest. The application of metabolomics is at its standardization phase in general, and the challenges for paving a standardized procedure are even more pronounced in brain studies. In this review, we support the value of metabolomics in brain research. Moreover, we demonstrate the challenges of designing and setting up a reliable brain metabolomic study, which, among other parameters, has to take into consideration the sex differentiation and the complexity of brain physiology manifested in its regional variation. We finally propose ways to overcome these challenges and design a study that produces reproducible and consistent results.

  2. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  3. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  4. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  5. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  6. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  7. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  8. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  9. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  10. PRA research and the development of risk-informed regulation at the U.S. nuclear regulatory commission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan; Collins, Dorothy

    2008-01-01

    Over the years, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) research activities conducted at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have played an essential role in support of the agency's move towards risk-informed regulation. These research activities have provided the technical basis for NRC's regulatory activities in key areas; provided PRA methods, tools, and data enabling the agency to meet future challenges; supported the implementation of NRC's 1995 PRA Policy Statement by assessing key sources of risk; and supported the development of necessary technical and human resources supporting NRC's risk-informed activities. PRA research aimed at improving the NRC's understanding of risk can positively affect the agency's regulatory activities, as evidenced by three case studies involving research on fire PRA, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), and Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) PRA. These case studies also show that such research can take a considerable amount of time, and that the incorporation of research results into regulatory practice can take even longer. The need for sustained effort and appropriate lead time is an important consideration in the development of a PRA research program aimed at helping the agency address key sources of risk for current and potential future facilities

  11. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  12. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  13. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  14. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  15. Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaute Wangen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.

  16. The risk-benefit task of research ethics committees: An evaluation of current approaches and the need to incorporate decision studies methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernabe Rosemarie D L C

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research ethics committees (RECs are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a trial. Currently, two procedure-level approaches are predominant, the Net Risk Test and the Component Analysis. Discussion By looking at decision studies, we see that both procedure-level approaches conflate the various risk-benefit tasks, i.e., risk-benefit assessment, risk-benefit evaluation, risk treatment, and decision making. This conflation makes the RECs’ risk-benefit task confusing, if not impossible. We further realize that RECs are not meant to do all the risk-benefit tasks; instead, RECs are meant to evaluate risks and benefits, appraise risk treatment suggestions, and make the final decision. Conclusion As such, research ethics would benefit from looking beyond the procedure-level approaches and allowing disciplines like decision studies to be involved in the discourse on RECs’ risk-benefit task.

  17. Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

  18. Annual research review: Rare genotypes and childhood psychopathology--uncovering diverse developmental mechanisms of ADHD risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scerif, Gaia; Baker, Kate

    2015-03-01

    Through the increased availability and sophistication of genetic testing, it is now possible to identify causal diagnoses in a growing proportion of children with neurodevelopmental disorders. In addition to developmental delay and intellectual disability, many genetic disorders are associated with high risks of psychopathology, which curtail the wellbeing of affected individuals and their families. Beyond the identification of significant clinical needs, understanding the diverse pathways from rare genetic mutations to cognitive dysfunction and emotional-behavioural disturbance has theoretical and practical utility. We overview (based on a strategic search of the literature) the state-of-the-art on causal mechanisms leading to one of the most common childhood behavioural diagnoses - attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) - in the context of specific genetic disorders. We focus on new insights emerging from the mapping of causal pathways from identified genetic differences to neuronal biology, brain abnormalities, cognitive processing differences and ultimately behavioural symptoms of ADHD. First, ADHD research in the context of rare genotypes highlights the complexity of multilevel mechanisms contributing to psychopathology risk. Second, comparisons between genetic disorders associated with similar psychopathology risks can elucidate convergent or distinct mechanisms at each level of analysis, which may inform therapeutic interventions and prognosis. Third, genetic disorders provide an unparalleled opportunity to observe dynamic developmental interactions between neurocognitive risk and behavioural symptoms. Fourth, variation in expression of psychopathology risk within each genetic disorder points to putative moderating and protective factors within the genome and the environment. A common imperative emerging within psychopathology research is the need to investigate mechanistically how developmental trajectories converge or diverge between and within

  19. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J.

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  20. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Analysis of the effect of corporate governance attributes on risk management practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raef Gouiaa

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent increased risk research attention being focussed on the Canadian and international scene, there are few research studies that specifically address the relation between corporate governance systems and risk management practices. This paper examines the relation between corporate governance systems and enterprise risk management. More specifically, we analyze how corporate governance attributes and particularly board characteristics can affect risk management practices in the context of Canadian listed companies. Using a content analysis approach, the level of exposure to risk in terms of likelihood, the consequences of such risk and the strategies for managing that risk were identified for each type of risk. The results reveal that corporate governance attributes related to board’s structure, directors’ characteristics and the board's operating process play a significant and important role in establishing an integrative risk management approach. The results show that directors’ characteristics and the board's process significantly determine the quality of risk management through the level of risk-taking in decisions, especially in terms of financial risks.

  2. Analysis of Risks Generated by Suppliers During the Period of Economic Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Jurásková

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine one group of supply chain risks, namely the current risks generated by the suppliers and their relations to the position of companies in the supply chain and the current economic fluctuations, as well as to gain the knowledge on how to mitigate these risks, including the cooperation between the partners. The research was conducted in two stages by means of a questionnaire analysis and follow-up of multiple case studies. The surveys used have registered certain signals showing increasing dependence on the suppliers, deepening imbalances in the supply chains and decreasing opportunities of reducing the presence of risks. The surveys have also detected tendencies leading to structural measures strengthening resilience of the supply chain. The areas for further research of supply chains risks and risks management are formulated based on the acquired findings.

  3. Drug and alcohol crash risk : traffic safety facts : research note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    While the extent of use of alcohol by drivers and the risks posed by alcohol use have been well known for many decades, relatively little has been known about the use of other drugs by drivers and the associated risks. However, drug-impaired driving ...

  4. Original Research Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in ... mainstay of management is CPAP in addition to behavioral ..... the present study has some potential limitations which ... consequences of obstructive sleep apnea and short sleep duration.

  5. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  6. Intuitive risk perception: research results of attitude surveys toward risk and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Peters, H.P.

    1982-01-01

    Using the instruments of the empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severity of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks

  7. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  8. "There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep

    2016-07-01

    Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  10. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  11. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  12. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  13. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  14. Risk Evaluation for Identification and Intervention in Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) for International Biological R&D Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hoffman, Matthew John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Caskey, Susan A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Arguello, Bryan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Chavez, Lozanne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pierson, Adam J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lopez, Elizabeth [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nozick, Linda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Davis, Chad E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.

  15. The Utility of Template Analysis in Qualitative Psychology Research

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, Joanna; McCluskey, Serena; Turley, Emma L.; King, Nigel

    2015-01-01

    Thematic analysis is widely used in qualitative psychology research, and in this article, we present a particular style of thematic analysis known as Template Analysis. We outline the technique and consider its epistemological position, then describe three case studies of research projects which employed Template Analysis to illustrate the diverse ways it can be used. Our first case study illustrates how the technique was employed in data analysis undertaken by a team of researchers in a larg...

  16. Analysis and management of risks from the nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-04-01

    The Coordinated Research Programme (CRP) on Risk Criteria for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle was begun in 1983 with several objectives: A primary objective was to permit countries with little experience with risk assessment methods to gain familiarity with these techniques. Another objective was to support work regarding safety criteria complementary to the risk assessment work. Risk criteria expressed as quantitative safety goals or targets can be used to establish acceptable safety levels; in this respect, they define what it is that risk assessments should measure; conversely the capabilities of risk assessment must be recognized when risk criteria are established. In addition to the work by each participating country under the sponsorship of the programme, the exchange of information between the participants was an objective of the programme. Refs, figs and tabs

  17. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  18. Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moayeri A

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Ardeshir Moayeri,1 Mahmoud Mohamadpour,2 Seyedeh Fatemeh Mousavi,3 Ehsan Shirzadpour,2 Safoura Mohamadpour,3 Mansour Amraei4 1Department of Anatomy, 2Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, 3Department of Epidemiology, Prevention of Psychosocial Injuries Research Center, 4Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran Aim: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors.Methods: Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1 and STATA (version 11.1.Results: Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06 and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy.Conclusion: Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. Keywords: diabetes mellitus, fractures, bone, osteoporosis, risk factors, meta-analysis

  19. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  20. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  1. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  2. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  3. Original Research Risk factors for common cancers among patients ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusions. Age, smoking, and HIV are important risk factors for the 3 commonest cancer types (oesophageal, KS, and cervical) at this teaching .... cancer (95%) patients had no history of smoking or alcohol ..... Africa: a current perspective.

  4. Original Research Risk factors for Anopheles mosquitoes in rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    have suggested that the strongest risk factor for malaria. Original ..... mosquitoes are adapted to urban environments characterised .... Reduction of childhood malaria by social marketing of insecticide-treated ... and ICF Macro; 2011. 22.

  5. Research Award: Risk Management and Internal Audit (RMIA)

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    KKearney

    2011-09-12

    Sep 12, 2011 ... management, internal audit and advisory services. ... in the discharge of their responsibilities by providing assurance and advice on ... project management principles, enterprise risk management practices, and internal audit ...

  6. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  7. Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

  8. Risk Analysis of Coastal Disaster of Semarang City, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunaryo; Ambariyanto; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Helmi, Muhammad; Kaimuddin, Awaluddin Halirin; Indarjo, Agus

    2018-02-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to disasters, as they are affected by events occurring both on land and at sea. In the development of cities in these areas, information on vulnerability levels is needed as a consideration in determining policy. This study aims to identify potential vulnerability of Semarang city, and to investigate the potential of hazard and disaster risk levels of the city. The study was conducted in 17 villages in the northern coastal area of Semarang. The assessment approach used was score analysis to some variables, i.e geomorphology, erosion, coastal slope, waves and socio-economic aspects. The research showed that the highest level of coastal vulnerability in the Semarang city were at three villages i.e.Terboyo Kulon, Terboyo Wetan and Trimulyo with value of 4.5; while the lowest level were at the Maron beach, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 2.8. The highest potential coastal hazard in the Semarang city were at two villages i.e. Tanjung Mas and Tambak Lorok with value of 4.5; and the lowest value were in the village of Randugarut, Karanganyar, Tugurejo, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 1.25.The highest level of coastal risk in the Semarang city were in the Trimulyo village with value of 3.13; and the lowest level were in the Marina beach and Tanah mas with value of 1.32.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  10. Smart Extraction and Analysis System for Clinical Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Khan, Wajahat Ali; Ali, Taqdir; Jamshed, Arif; Lee, Sungyoung

    2017-05-01

    With the increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs), there is a growing need to expand the utilization of EHR data to support clinical research. The key challenge in achieving this goal is the unavailability of smart systems and methods to overcome the issue of data preparation, structuring, and sharing for smooth clinical research. We developed a robust analysis system called the smart extraction and analysis system (SEAS) that consists of two subsystems: (1) the information extraction system (IES), for extracting information from clinical documents, and (2) the survival analysis system (SAS), for a descriptive and predictive analysis to compile the survival statistics and predict the future chance of survivability. The IES subsystem is based on a novel permutation-based pattern recognition method that extracts information from unstructured clinical documents. Similarly, the SAS subsystem is based on a classification and regression tree (CART)-based prediction model for survival analysis. SEAS is evaluated and validated on a real-world case study of head and neck cancer. The overall information extraction accuracy of the system for semistructured text is recorded at 99%, while that for unstructured text is 97%. Furthermore, the automated, unstructured information extraction has reduced the average time spent on manual data entry by 75%, without compromising the accuracy of the system. Moreover, around 88% of patients are found in a terminal or dead state for the highest clinical stage of disease (level IV). Similarly, there is an ∼36% probability of a patient being alive if at least one of the lifestyle risk factors was positive. We presented our work on the development of SEAS to replace costly and time-consuming manual methods with smart automatic extraction of information and survival prediction methods. SEAS has reduced the time and energy of human resources spent unnecessarily on manual tasks.

  11. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  12. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  13. Jyotiraj Patra: Investigating the use of research in disaster risk ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-27

    Jan 27, 2015 ... His experience in disaster management in India has shown Jyotiraj that research ... Events like the 2013 flood in Uttarakhand state in northern India have also ... This article is part of the series CARIAA Young Researchers.

  14. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  15. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  16. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  17. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  18. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  19. "Mind the Gap": Researchers Ignore Politics at Their Own Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Judith

    2016-02-01

    No matter how distasteful researchers find policy politics, effective policy requires that they engage. Drawing on her career bridging the research/politics gap in health care policy, the author makes a case for why and how researchers can do just that. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

  20. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  1. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  2. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  3. Putting risk analysis into perspective: a comparative review of major societal risk studies of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dooley, J.E.; Hansson, B.; Kaspersson, R.; ORiordan, T.; Paschen, H.

    1983-04-01

    The emphasis in this final report of the project Evaluation of major Swedish energy risk assessments in an international perspective is shifted towards the comparative aspect. The comprehensive nuclear risk study has been used as an instrument to satisfy many needs simultaneously. The research consisted of an examination of existing risk studies of five nations, namely West Germany, UK, US, Canada and Sweden. The effect of nuclear risk studies on society at large and on public attitude towards nuclear power in particular is discussed. Finally, the effect on the nuclear establishment is analysed. (G.B.)

  4. RADTRAN 5 - A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1993-01-01

    The RADTRAN 5 computer code has been developed to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77; the code contains significant advances in the methodology first pioneered with the LINK option of RADTRAN 4. A major application of the LINK methodology is route-specific analysis. Another application is comparisons of attributes along the same route segments. Nonradiological risk factors have been incorporated to allow users to estimate nonradiological fatalities and injuries that might occur during the transportation event(s) being analyzed. These fatalities include prompt accidental fatalities from mechanical causes. Values of these risk factors for the United States have been made available in the code as optional defaults. Several new health effects models have been published in the wake of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki dosimetry reassessment, and this has emphasized the need for flexibility in the RADTRAN approach to health-effects calculations. Therefore, the basic set of health-effects conversion equations in RADTRAN have been made user-definable. All parameter values can be changed by the user, but a complete set of default values are available for both the new International Commission on Radiation Protection model (ICRP Publication 60) and the recent model of the U.S. National Research Council's Committee on the Biological Effects of Radiation (BEIR V). The meteorological input data tables have been modified to permit optional entry of maximum downwind distances for each dose isopleth. The expected dose to an individual in each isodose area is also calculated and printed automatically. Examples are given that illustrate the power and flexibility of the RADTRAN 5 computer code. (J.P.N.)

  5. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  6. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  7. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  8. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  9. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  10. Behavioral Research Data Analysis with R

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Yuelin

    2012-01-01

    This book is written for behavioral scientists who want to consider adding R to their existing set of statistical tools, or want to switch to R as their main computation tool. The authors aim primarily to help practitioners of behavioral research make the transition to R. The focus is to provide practical advice on some of the widely-used statistical methods in behavioral research, using a set of notes and annotated examples. This book will also help beginners learn more about statistics and behavioral research. These are statistical techniques used by psychologists who do research on human su

  11. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  12. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  13. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  14. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  15. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  16. Benefit-cost analysis of OHER research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesse, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    This research was undertaken to estimate societal benefits and costs of selected past research performed for OHER. Three case studies of representative OHER and DOE research were performed. One of these, the acid rain case study, included research conducted in another office in DOE. The other two cases were the OHER marine research program and the OHER project that developed high-purity germanium used in radiation detectors. The acid rain case study looked at research benefits and costs of furnace sorbent injection and duct injection, technologies that might reduce acid deposition precursors. Both appeared to show benefits in excess of costs. They examined in detail one of the marine research program's accomplishments, the increase in environmental information used by the Outer Continental Shelf leasing program to manage bidding for off-shore oil drilling. The results of an econometric model showed that, environmentally, marine research supported by OHER is unequivocally linked to government and industry leasing decisions. Finally, the germanium case study indicated that benefits of germanium radiation detectors were significant

  17. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  18. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  19. The relationship between modifiable health risks and group-level health care expenditures. Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Research Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D R; Whitmer, R W; Goetzel, R Z; Ozminkowski, R J; Dunn, R L; Wasserman, J; Serxner, S

    2000-01-01

    To assess the relationship between modifiable health risks and total health care expenditures for a large employee group. Risk data were collected through voluntary participation in health risk assessment (HRA) and worksite biometric screenings and were linked at the individual level to health care plan enrollment and expenditure data from employers' fee-for-service plans over the 6-year study period. The setting was worksite health promotion programs sponsored by six large private-sector and public-sector employers. Of the 50% of employees who completed the HRA, 46,026 (74.7%) met all inclusion criteria for the analysis. Eleven risk factors (exercise, alcohol use, eating, current and former tobacco use, depression, stress, blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, and blood glucose) were dichotomized into high-risk and lower-risk levels. The association between risks and expenditures was estimated using a two-part regression model, controlling for demographics and other confounders. Risk prevalence data were used to estimate group-level impact of risks on expenditures. Risk factors were associated with 25% of total expenditures. Stress was the most costly factor, with tobacco use, overweight, and lack of exercise also being linked to substantial expenditures. Modifiable risk factors contribute substantially to overall health care expenditures. Health promotion programs that reduce these risks may be beneficial for employers in controlling health care costs.

  20. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  1. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  2. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  3. Herbal medicine research and global health: an ethical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilburt, Jon C; Kaptchuk, Ted J

    2008-08-01

    Governments, international agencies and corporations are increasingly investing in traditional herbal medicine research. Yet little literature addresses ethical challenges in this research. In this paper, we apply concepts in a comprehensive ethical framework for clinical research to international traditional herbal medicine research. We examine in detail three key, underappreciated dimensions of the ethical framework in which particularly difficult questions arise for international herbal medicine research: social value, scientific validity and favourable risk-benefit ratio. Significant challenges exist in determining shared concepts of social value, scientific validity and favourable risk-benefit ratio across international research collaborations. However, we argue that collaborative partnership, including democratic deliberation, offers the context and process by which many of the ethical challenges in international herbal medicine research can, and should be, resolved. By "cross-training" investigators, and investing in safety-monitoring infrastructure, the issues identified by this comprehensive framework can promote ethically sound international herbal medicine research that contributes to global health.

  4. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  5. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  6. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  7. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  8. Exploring health information technology education: an analysis of the research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virgona, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    This article is an analysis of the Health Information Technology Education published research. The purpose of this study was to examine selected literature using variables such as journal frequency, keyword analysis, universities associated with the research and geographic diversity. The analysis presented in this paper has identified intellectually significant studies that have contributed to the development and accumulation of intellectual wealth of Health Information Technology. The keyword analysis suggests that Health Information Technology research has evolved from establishing concepts and domains of health information systems, technology and management to contemporary issues such as education, outsourcing, web services and security. The research findings have implications for educators, researchers, journal.

  9. Jyotiraj Patra: Investigating the use of research in disaster risk ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Jyotiraj Patra worked with the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) as a research award recipient in 2014. Jyotiraj Patra got his start with Concern Worldwide, working on disaster preparedness in Odisha, in coastal India. Since then he has continued to work on disaster preparedness and ...

  10. Esther Wojcicki Scientific Research in America at Risk

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    It is hard to believe, but science in America is struggling. Funding for scientific research has been cut back for years, but this year it is so bad that in the Chicago area, needs to in 2008 to make ends meet. Last week Congress failed to provide enough budgetary support for basic scientific research in all fields.

  11. Flood Risk Research and Warning Tools at the European Scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roo, A.P.J. de; Thielen, J.; Feyen, L.; Burek, P.; Salamon, P.

    2012-01-01

    The floods in the rivers Meuse and Rhine in 1993 and 1995 made the European Commission realize that also at Commission level further research on floods – especially in transboundary river catchments - was necessary. This led to the start of a dedicated research project on floods at the European

  12. A practical approach to risk-benefit estimation in pediatric drug research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koren, Gideon

    2015-02-01

    One of the most difficult challenges in pediatric drug research is in exposing children to risk, often without a balanced chance of benefits. While the concept of risk is similar in adult research, the adult patient can decide for himself/herself on an acceptable level of risk, whereas children have to accept the decisions of their guardians. This paper attempts to put the complexities of estimating risk in pediatric drug research into their practical perspective, and to familiarize the reader with the way such processes are conducted in different parts of the world. Although there are regional differences, all authorities typically quantify risks of pediatric research in general, and drug research in particular, in three levels: those experienced in day-to-day life; risks slightly above this 'baseline' risk; and risks substantially above 'baseline risk'. Proportionally, the diligence of the ethics process depends on these levels, as well as on the potential benefits (or lack of) to the child involved in the research. Importantly, risk is context dependent, and a particular intervention may be effective or safe in one setting but not in another, based on local experience, staffing levels, and similar variabilities.

  13. Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

    With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

  14. Research trends in radioisotopes: a scientometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagar, Anil; Kademani, B.S.; Bhanumurthy, K.; Ramamoorthy, N.

    2014-01-01

    Radioisotopes or radionuclides are radioactive forms of elements and are usually produced in research reactors and accelerators. They have wide ranging applications in healthcare, industry, food and agriculture, and environmental monitoring. Following over five decades of vast experience accumulated, radioisotope technology has developed to a high degree of sophistication and it is estimated that about 200 radioisotopes are in regular use. This paper attempts to highlight the publication status and growth of radioisotope research across the world and make quantitative and qualitative assessment by way of analyzing the following features of research output based on Web of Science database during the period 1993-2012. (author)

  15. Flood Risk Analysis in Denpasar City, Bali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmiyarti, T. B.; Wiguna, P. P. K.; Ratna Dewi, N. K. R.

    2018-02-01

    Denpasar city is a Capital City of Bali Province and one of the leading tourist destinations in Indonesia. Denpasar area is relatively flat with high rain fall intensity with the domince of settlement. This makes Denpasar City becomes prone area of flood. The aim of this research is to find out the spatial distribution flood hazard and the risk of population which are affected to the flood hazard. Weighting, scoring and overlaying method were used in this research. Six indicators were used to analyze the flood hazard: landuse, rainfall, type of soil, slope, altitute and drainage density. The vulnerability is analyzed per Desa or Kelurahan (Rustic/Neighborhood) with the indicator of age, education and population density. Risk was calculated by multiplied hazard with vulnerability and divided with coping capacity. In this research, coping capacity is determined by the amount of internal budget for each Desa or Kelurahan for development purpose. Flood risk in Denpasar city is divided into five classes, very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Total population with very high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. Total population with high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. The number of population with medium risk reached 202478 people or 33.51% of total population which occupied 22.95% of total settlements or 1118.18 ha. The total number of population with low risk reached 79435 people or 13.14% of total population with area of low flood risk is 716.89 ha or 14.71% of total settlements in Denpasar City. Very low flood risk with total population at risk reached 19184 people or 31.74% of total population and occupied 2003.54 areas or 41.12% of total areas of settlements.

  16. Latin American Research Consortiums : a Comparative Analysis ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Latin American countries are implementing several policies to enhance innovation. ... foster research collaboration between different actors in the innovation system. ... adaptive water management: Innovative solutions from the Global South”.

  17. [Performance analysis of scientific researchers in biomedicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamba, Gerardo

    2013-01-01

    There is no data about the performance of scientific researchers in biomedicine in our environment that can be use by individual subjects to compare their execution with their pairs. Using the Scopus browser the following data from 115 scientific researchers in biomedicine were obtained: actual institution, number of articles published, place on each article within the author list as first, last or unique author, total number of citations, percentage of citations due to the most cited paper, and h-index. Results were analyzed with descriptive statistics and simple lineal regressions. Most of scientific researches in the sample are from the National Institutes of the Health Ministry or some of the research institutes or faculties at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Total number of publications was biomedicine in Mexico City, which can be used to compare the productivity of individual subjects with their pairs.

  18. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  19. Bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina

    2014-12-01

    Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Research in dental practice: a 'SWOT' analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, F J T; Crisp, R J; McCord, J F

    2002-03-01

    Most dental treatment, in most countries, is carried out in general dental practice. There is therefore a potential wealth of research material, although clinical evaluations have generally been carried out on hospital-based patients. Many types of research, such as clinical evaluations and assessments of new materials, may be appropriate to dental practice. Principal problems are that dental practices are established to treat patients efficiently and to provide an income for the staff of the practice. Time spent on research therefore cannot be used for patient treatment, so there are cost implications. Critics of practice-based research have commented on the lack of calibration of operative diagnoses and other variables; however, this variability is the stuff of dental practice, the real-world situation. Many of the difficulties in carrying out research in dental practice may be overcome. For the enlightened, it may be possible to turn observations based on the volume of treatment carried out in practice into robust, clinically related and relevant research projects based in the real world of dental practice.