Conformal prediction for reliable machine learning theory, adaptations and applications

CERN Document Server

Balasubramanian, Vineeth; Vovk, Vladimir

2014-01-01

The conformal predictions framework is a recent development in machine learning that can associate a reliable measure of confidence with a prediction in any real-world pattern recognition application, including risk-sensitive applications such as medical diagnosis, face recognition, and financial risk prediction. Conformal Predictions for Reliable Machine Learning: Theory, Adaptations and Applications captures the basic theory of the framework, demonstrates how to apply it to real-world problems, and presents several adaptations, including active learning, change detection, and anomaly detecti

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS).

Science.gov (United States)

Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-10-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to criminal justice system involvement, self-report measures of aggression, impulsivity, and lack of empathy. Additionally, the CCS was associated with violent criminal history, antisocial personality, and clinicians' ratings of risk for future violence and psychopathy (PCL:SV). Furthermore, criminogenic thinking upon incarceration predicted subsequent official reports of inmate misconduct during incarceration. CCS scores varied somewhat by gender and race. Research and applied uses of CCS are discussed.

Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

2009-01-01

Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

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Nielsen Morten

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of the reliability of specific real value predictions is nontrivial and the efficacy of this is often questionable. It is important to know if you can trust a given prediction and therefore the best methods associate a prediction with a reliability score or index. For discrete qualitative predictions, the reliability is conventionally estimated as the difference between output scores of selected classes. Such an approach is not feasible for methods that predict a biological feature as a single real value rather than a classification. As a solution to this challenge, we have implemented a method that predicts the relative surface accessibility of an amino acid and simultaneously predicts the reliability for each prediction, in the form of a Z-score. Results An ensemble of artificial neural networks has been trained on a set of experimentally solved protein structures to predict the relative exposure of the amino acids. The method assigns a reliability score to each surface accessibility prediction as an inherent part of the training process. This is in contrast to the most commonly used procedures where reliabilities are obtained by post-processing the output. Conclusion The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability score with the individual predictions. However, our implementation of reliability scores in the form of a Z-score is shown to be the more informative measure for discriminating good predictions from bad ones in the entire range from completely buried to fully exposed amino acids. This is evident when comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0

A generic Approach for Reliability Predictions considering non-uniformly Deterioration Behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krause, Jakob; Kabitzsch, Klaus

2012-01-01

Predictive maintenance offers the possibility to prognosticate the remaining time until a maintenance action of a machine has to be scheduled. Unfortunately, current predictive maintenance solutions are only suitable for very specific use cases like reliability predictions based on vibration monitoring. Furthermore, they do not consider the fact that machines may deteriorate non-uniformly, depending on external influences (e.g., the work piece material in a milling machine or the changing fruit acid concentration in a bottling plant). In this paper two concepts for a generic predictive maintenance solution which also considers non-uniformly aging behaviour are introduced. The first concept is based on system models representing the health state of a technical system. As these models are usually statically (viz. without a timely dimension) their coefficients are determined periodically and the resulting time series is used as aging indicator. The second concept focuses on external influences (contexts) which change the behaviour of the previous mentioned aging indicators in order to increase the accuracy of reliability predictions. Therefore, context-depended time series models are determined and used to predict machine reliability. Both concepts were evaluated on data of an air ventilation system. Thereby, it could be shown that they are suitable to determine aging indicators in a generic way and to incorporate external influences in the reliability prediction. Through this, the quality of reliability predictions can be significantly increased. In reality this leads to a more accurate scheduling of maintenance actions. Furthermore, the generic character of the solutions makes the concepts suitable for a wide range of aging processes.

Neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent cued recall and source memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Angel, Lucie; Isingrini, Michel; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Fay, Séverine

2013-03-06

In this experiment, event-related potentials were used to examine whether the neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent successful recall differed from those predicting successful source memory retrieval. During encoding, participants studied lists of words and were instructed to memorize each word and the list in which it occurred. At test, they had to complete stems (the first four letters) with a studied word and then make a judgment of the initial temporal context (i.e. list). Event-related potentials recorded during encoding were segregated according to subsequent memory performance to examine subsequent memory effects (SMEs) reflecting successful cued recall (cued recall SME) and successful source retrieval (source memory SME). Data showed a cued recall SME on parietal electrode sites from 400 to 1200 ms and a late inversed cued recall SME on frontal sites in the 1200-1400 ms period. Moreover, a source memory SME was reported from 400 to 1400 ms on frontal areas. These findings indicate that patterns of encoding-related activity predicting successful recall and source memory are clearly dissociated.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1995-01-01

For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this study to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results are close to the actual data

Reliable prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition and value

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kongsro, Jørgen

2008-01-01

The main objective of this work was to study prediction and determination of Norwegian lamb carcass composition with different techniques spanning from subjective appraisal to computer-intensive methods. There is an increasing demand, both from farmers and processors of meats, for a more objective and reliable system for prediction of muscle (lean meat), fat, bone and value of a lamb carcass. When introducing new technologies for determination of lamb carcass composition, the reference method used for calibration must be precise and reliable. The precision and reliability of the current dissection reference for lamb carcass classification and grading has never been quantified. A poor reference method will not benefit even the most optimal system for prediction and determination of lamb carcasses. To help achieve reliable systems, the uncertainty or errors in the reference method and measuring systems needs to be quantified. Using proper calibration methods for the measuring systems, the uncertainty and modeling power can be determined for lamb carcasses. The results of the work presented in this thesis show that the current classification system using subjective appraisal (EUROP) is reliable; however the accuracy with respect to carcass composition, especially for lean meat or muscle and carcass value, is poor. The reference method used for determining lamb carcass composition with respect to lamb carcass classification and grading is precise and reliable for carcass composition. For the composition and yield of sub-primal cuts, the reliability varied, and was especially poor for the breast cut. Further attention is needed for jointing and cutting of sub-primals to achieve even higher precision and reliability of the reference method. As an alternative to butcher or manual dissection, Computer Tomography (CT) showed promising results with respect to prediction of lamb carcass composition. This method is nicknamed “virtual dissection”. By utilizing the

A method of predicting the reliability of CDM coil insulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kytasty, A.; Ogle, C.; Arrendale, H.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a method of predicting the reliability of the Collider Dipole Magnet (CDM) coil insulation design. The method proposes a probabilistic treatment of electrical test data, stress analysis, material properties variability and loading uncertainties to give the reliability estimate. The approach taken to predict reliability of design related failure modes of the CDM is to form analytical models of the various possible failure modes and their related mechanisms or causes, and then statistically assess the contributions of the various contributing variables. The probability of the failure mode occurring is interpreted as the number of times one would expect certain extreme situations to combine and randomly occur. One of the more complex failure modes of the CDM will be used to illustrate this methodology

Neuroticism Predicts Subsequent Risk of Major Depression for Whites but Not Blacks

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Shervin Assari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Cultural and ethnic differences in psychosocial and medical correlates of negative affect are well documented. This study aimed to compare blacks and whites for the predictive role of baseline neuroticism (N on subsequent risk of major depressive episodes (MDD 25 years later. Data came from the Americans’ Changing Lives (ACL Study, 1986–2011. We used data on 1219 individuals (847 whites and 372 blacks who had data on baseline N in 1986 and future MDD in 2011. The main predictor of interest was baseline N, measured using three items in 1986. The main outcome was 12 months MDD measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI at 2011. Covariates included baseline demographics (age and gender, socioeconomics (education and income, depressive symptoms [Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D], stress, health behaviors (smoking and driking, and physical health [chronic medical conditions, obesity, and self-rated health (SRH] measured in 1986. Logistic regressions were used to test the predictive role of baseline N on subsequent risk of MDD 25 years later, net of covariates. The models were estimated in the pooled sample, as well as blacks and whites. In the pooled sample, baseline N predicted subsequent risk of MDD 25 years later (OR = 2.23, 95%CI = 1.14–4.34, net of covariates. We also found a marginally significant interaction between race and baseline N on subsequent risk of MDD (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.12–1.12, suggesting a stronger effect for whites compared to blacks. In race-specific models, among whites (OR = 2.55; 95% CI = 1.22–5.32 but not blacks (OR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.24–3.39, baseline N predicted subsequent risk of MDD. Black-white differences in socioeconomics and physical health could not explain the racial differences in the link between N and MDD. Blacks and whites differ in the salience of baseline N as a psychological determinant of MDD risk over a long period of time. This finding

Performance reliability prediction for thermal aging based on kalman filtering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren Shuhong; Wen Zhenhua; Xue Fei; Zhao Wensheng

2015-01-01

The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines. (authors)

System reliability prediction using data from non-identical environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, B.; Ringi, M.

1997-01-01

Since information changes one's mind and probability assessments reflect one's degree of beliefs, a reliability prediction model should enclose all relevant information. Almost always ignored in existing reliability models is the dependence on component life lengths, induced by a common but unknown environment. Furthermore, existing models seldom permit learning from components' performance in similar systems, under the knowledge of non-identical operating environments. In an earlier paper by the present authors the first type of aspects were taken into account and in this paper that model is generalised so that failure data generated from several similar systems in non-identical environments may be used for the prediction of any similar system in its specific environment

A Reliable and Valid Survey to Predict a Patient’s Gagging Intensity

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Casey M. Hearing

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study was to devise a reliable and valid survey to predict the intensity of someone’s gag reflex. Material and Methods: A 10-question Predictive Gagging Survey was created, refined, and tested on 59 undergraduate participants. The questions focused on risk factors and experiences that would indicate the presence and strength of someone’s gag reflex. Reliability was assessed by administering the survey to a group of 17 participants twice, with 3 weeks separating the two administrations. Finally, the survey was given to 25 dental patients. In these cases, patients completed an informed consent form, filled out the survey, and then had a maxillary impression taken while their gagging response was quantified from 1 to 5 on the Fiske and Dickinson Gagging Intensity Index. Results: There was a moderate positive correlation between the Predictive Gagging Survey and Fiske and Dickinson’s Gagging Severity Index, r = +0.64, demonstrating the survey’s validity. Furthermore, the test-retest reliability was r = +0.96, demonstrating the survey’s reliability. Conclusions: The Predictive Gagging Survey is a 10-question survey about gag-related experiences and behaviours. We established that it is a reliable and valid method to assess the strength of someone’s gag reflex.

Prediction of software operational reliability using testing environment factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung

1995-02-01

Software reliability is especially important to customers these days. The need to quantify software reliability of safety-critical systems has been received very special attention and the reliability is rated as one of software's most important attributes. Since the software is an intellectual product of human activity and since it is logically complex, the failures are inevitable. No standard models have been established to prove the correctness and to estimate the reliability of software systems by analysis and/or testing. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there are many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability, however. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, testing environment factor comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are defined in this work to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factor Test reliability can also be estimated with this approach without any model change. The application results are close to the actual data. The approach used in this thesis is expected to be applicable to ultra high reliable software systems that are used in nuclear power plants, airplanes, and other safety-critical applications

Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

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Stefanović Neda

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

Optimization of reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for inertial navigation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Xiuhong; Duan, Fuhai; Tian, Heng; Wei, Xuedong

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to propose a reliability centered predictive maintenance scheme for a complex structure Inertial Navigation System (INS) with several redundant components. GO Methodology is applied to build the INS reliability analysis model—GO chart. Components Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and system reliability are updated dynamically based on the combination of components lifetime distribution function, stress samples, and the system GO chart. Considering the redundant design in INS, maintenance time is based not only on components RUL, but also (and mainly) on the timing of when system reliability fails to meet the set threshold. The definition of components maintenance priority balances three factors: components importance to system, risk degree, and detection difficulty. Maintenance Priority Number (MPN) is introduced, which may provide quantitative maintenance priority results for all components. A maintenance unit time cost model is built based on components MPN, components RUL predictive model and maintenance intervals for the optimization of maintenance scope. The proposed scheme can be applied to serve as the reference for INS maintenance. Finally, three numerical examples prove the proposed predictive maintenance scheme is feasible and effective. - Highlights: • A dynamic PdM with a rolling horizon is proposed for INS with redundant components. • GO Methodology is applied to build the system reliability analysis model. • A concept of MPN is proposed to quantify the maintenance sequence of components. • An optimization model is built to select the optimal group of maintenance components. • The optimization goal is minimizing the cost of maintaining system reliability

Test-Retest Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Implicit Association Test in Children

Science.gov (United States)

Rae, James R.; Olson, Kristina R.

2018-01-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many…

Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

1989-01-01

The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth of klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stored for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, the authors will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Reliability and lifetime predictions of SLC klystrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, M.A.; Callin, R.S.; Fowkes, W.R.; Lee, T.G.; Vlieks, A.E.

1989-03-01

The energy upgrade of SLAC, with the first of the new 67 MW SLAC Linear Collider (SLC) klystrons, began over four years ago. Today there are over 200 of these klystrons in operation. As a result, there is a wealth klystron performance and failure information that enables reasonable predictions to be made on life expectancy and reliability. Data from initial tests, follow-up tests and daily operation monitoring on the accelerator is stores for analysis. Presented here are life expectancy predictions with particular emphasis on cathode life. Also, based on this data, we will discuss some of the principal modes of failure. 3 refs., 2 figs

Prediction of Parkinson's disease subsequent to severe depression: a ten-year follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Uwe; Heilmann, Robert; Kaulitz, Lara; Just, Tino; Krause, Bernd Joachim; Benecke, Reiner; Höppner, Jacqueline

2015-06-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has been associated with an increased risk of subsequent Parkinson's disease (PD) in case-control and cohort studies. However, depression alone is unlikely to be a useful marker of prodromal PD due to its low specificity. In this longitudinal observational study, we assessed whether the presence of other potential markers of prodromal PD predicts the subsequent development of PD in MDD patients. Of 57 patients with severe MDD but no diagnosis of PD who underwent a structured interview, olfactory and motor investigation and transcranial sonography at baseline, 46 (36 women; mean age 54.9 ± 11.7 years) could be followed for up to 11 (median, 10) years. Three patients (2 women; age 64, 65 and 70 years) developed definite PD after 1, 7, and 9 years, respectively. The combined finding of mild asymmetric motor slowing, idiopathic hyposmia, and substantia nigra hyperechogenicity predicted subsequent PD in all patients who could be followed for longer than 1 year. Out of the whole study cohort, only the subjects with subsequent PD presented with the triad of asymmetric motor slowing, idiopathic hyposmia, and substantia nigra hyperechogenicity in combination with at least two out of four reportable risk factors (family history of PD, current non-smoker, non-coffee drinker, constipation) at baseline investigation. Post-hoc analysis revealed that additional rating of eye and eye-lid motor abnormalities might further improve the prediction of PD in larger cohorts. Findings of this pilot-study suggest that MDD patients at risk of subsequent PD can be identified using an inexpensive non-invasive diagnostic battery.

A common reference population from four European Holstein populations increases reliability of genomic predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens Sandø; de Ross, Sander PW; de Vries, Alfred G

2011-01-01

Background Size of the reference population and reliability of phenotypes are crucial factors influencing the reliability of genomic predictions. It is therefore useful to combine closely related populations. Increased accuracies of genomic predictions depend on the number of individuals added to...

Towards more accurate and reliable predictions for nuclear applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goriely, S.

2015-01-01

The need for nuclear data far from the valley of stability, for applications such as nuclear astrophysics or future nuclear facilities, challenges the robustness as well as the predictive power of present nuclear models. Most of the nuclear data evaluation and prediction are still performed on the basis of phenomenological nuclear models. For the last decades, important progress has been achieved in fundamental nuclear physics, making it now feasible to use more reliable, but also more complex microscopic or semi-microscopic models in the evaluation and prediction of nuclear data for practical applications. In the present contribution, the reliability and accuracy of recent nuclear theories are discussed for most of the relevant quantities needed to estimate reaction cross sections and beta-decay rates, namely nuclear masses, nuclear level densities, gamma-ray strength, fission properties and beta-strength functions. It is shown that nowadays, mean-field models can be tuned at the same level of accuracy as the phenomenological models, renormalized on experimental data if needed, and therefore can replace the phenomenogical inputs in the prediction of nuclear data. While fundamental nuclear physicists keep on improving state-of-the-art models, e.g. within the shell model or ab initio models, nuclear applications could make use of their most recent results as quantitative constraints or guides to improve the predictions in energy or mass domain that will remain inaccessible experimentally. (orig.)

Study of redundant Models in reliability prediction of HXMT's HES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jinming; Liu Congzhan; Zhang Zhi; Ji Jianfeng

2010-01-01

Two redundant equipment structures of HXMT's HES are proposed firstly, the block backup and dual system cold-redundancy. Then prediction of the reliability is made by using parts count method. Research of comparison and analysis is also performed on the two proposals. A conclusion is drawn that a higher reliability and longer service life could be offered by taking a redundant equipment structure of block backup. (authors)

Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J.

2000-09-01

Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction

Methodologies of the hardware reliability prediction for PSA of digital I and C systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, H. S.; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Park, J

2000-09-01

Digital I and C systems are being used widely in the Non-safety systems of the NPP and they are expanding their applications to safety critical systems. The regulatory body shifts their policy to risk based and may require Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the digital I and C systems. But there is no established reliability prediction methodology for the digital I and C systems including both software and hardware yet. This survey report includes a lot of reliability prediction methods for electronic systems in view of hardware. Each method has both the strong and the weak points. This report provides the state-of-art of prediction methods and focus on Bellcore method and MIL-HDBK-217F method in deeply. The reliability analysis models are reviewed and discussed to help analysts. Also this report includes state-of-art of software tools that are supporting reliability prediction.

Prior nonhip limb fracture predicts subsequent hip fracture in institutionalized elderly people.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, K; Takahashi, S; Oyama, M; Oshiki, R; Kobayashi, R; Saito, T; Yoshizawa, Y; Tsuchiya, Y

2010-08-01

This 1-year cohort study of nursing home residents revealed that historical fractures of upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs were associated with hip fracture (hazard ratio = 2.14), independent of activities of daily living (ADL), mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home. Prior nonhip fractures are useful for predicting of hip fracture in institutional settings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of fracture history for the prediction of hip fracture in nursing home residents. This was a cohort study with a 1-year follow-up. Subjects were 8,905 residents of nursing homes in Niigata, Japan (mean age, 84.3 years). Fracture histories were obtained from nursing home medical records. ADL levels were assessed by caregivers. Hip fracture diagnosis was based on hospital medical records. Subjects had fracture histories of upper limbs (5.0%), hip (14.0%), and nonhip lower limbs (4.6%). Among historical single fractures, only prior nonhip lower limbs significantly predicted subsequent fracture (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.30-4.57). The stepwise method selected the best model, in which a combined historical fracture at upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.30-3.52), dependence, ADL levels, mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home independently predicted subsequent hip fracture. A fracture history at upper or nonhip lower limbs, in combination with other known risk factors, is useful for the prediction of future hip fracture in institutional settings.

Global Brain Dynamics During Social Exclusion Predict Subsequent Behavioral Conformity

OpenAIRE

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway, Brett; Garcia, Javier O.; Cascio, Christopher N.; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C. Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M.; Falk, Emily B.

2017-01-01

Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (N = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI...

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Rae, James R; Olson, Kristina R

2018-02-01

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is increasingly used in developmental research despite minimal evidence of whether children's IAT scores are reliable across time or predictive of behavior. When test-retest reliability and predictive validity have been assessed, the results have been mixed, and because these studies have differed on many factors simultaneously (lag-time between testing administrations, domain, etc.), it is difficult to discern what factors may explain variability in existing test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates. Across five studies (total N = 519; ages 6- to 11-years-old), we manipulated two factors that have varied in previous developmental research-lag-time and domain. An internal meta-analysis of these studies revealed that, across three different methods of analyzing the data, mean test-retest (rs of .48, .38, and .34) and predictive validity (rs of .46, .20, and .10) effect sizes were significantly greater than zero. While lag-time did not moderate the magnitude of test-retest coefficients, whether we observed domain differences in test-retest reliability and predictive validity estimates was contingent on other factors, such as how we scored the IAT or whether we included estimates from a unique sample (i.e., a sample containing gender typical and gender diverse children). Recommendations are made for developmental researchers that utilize the IAT in their research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading

Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

2012-06-01

To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Investigating Postgraduate College Admission Interviews: Generalizability Theory Reliability and Incremental Predictive Validity

Science.gov (United States)

Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Castillo, Irene Borges

2007-01-01

The use of face-to-face interviews is controversial for college admissions decisions in light of the lack of availability of validity and reliability evidence for most college admission processes. This study investigated reliability and incremental predictive validity of a face-to-face postgraduate college admission interview with a sample of…

A dynamic particle filter-support vector regression method for reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Zhao; Tao, Tao; ZhuoShu, Ding; Zio, Enrico

2013-01-01

Support vector regression (SVR) has been applied to time series prediction and some works have demonstrated the feasibility of its use to forecast system reliability. For accuracy of reliability forecasting, the selection of SVR's parameters is important. The existing research works on SVR's parameters selection divide the example dataset into training and test subsets, and tune the parameters on the training data. However, these fixed parameters can lead to poor prediction capabilities if the data of the test subset differ significantly from those of training. Differently, the novel method proposed in this paper uses particle filtering to estimate the SVR model parameters according to the whole measurement sequence up to the last observation instance. By treating the SVR training model as the observation equation of a particle filter, our method allows updating the SVR model parameters dynamically when a new observation comes. Because of the adaptability of the parameters to dynamic data pattern, the new PF–SVR method has superior prediction performance over that of standard SVR. Four application results show that PF–SVR is more robust than SVR to the decrease of the number of training data and the change of initial SVR parameter values. Also, even if there are trends in the test data different from those in the training data, the method can capture the changes, correct the SVR parameters and obtain good predictions. -- Highlights: •A dynamic PF–SVR method is proposed to predict the system reliability. •The method can adjust the SVR parameters according to the change of data. •The method is robust to the size of training data and initial parameter values. •Some cases based on both artificial and real data are studied. •PF–SVR shows superior prediction performance over standard SVR

Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

Angiogenic Factors in Cord Blood of Preterm Infants Predicts Subsequently Developing Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Chien Yang

2015-12-01

Conclusion: Cord blood level of PlGF, rather than VEGF or sFlt-1, was significantly increased in the BPD group. Consistent with our previous report, cord blood level of PlGF may be considered as a biomarker to predict subsequently developing BPD in preterm infants.

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

Science.gov (United States)

Abu Talib, Manar

2016-01-01

Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

2016-03-01

We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis of the value of post-radiation prostate biopsy in predicting subsequent disease progression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benda, R.; Shamsa, F.; Meetze, K.; Bolton, S.; Littrup, P.; Grignon, D.; Washington, T.; Forman, J.D.

1997-01-01

-RT PSA ( 1.5ng/ml at the time of biopsy had a 53% failure rate vs. 21% for patients with a PSA ≤1.5 (p<0.05, κ=.3). Patients with a positive biopsy had a 53% failure rate compared to 17% if biopsy was negative (p<0.05, κ=0.378). There was no significant difference between patients with a negative biopsy or a biopsy with a marked therapeutic effect (p=0.13). Conclusions: Post RT, TRUS and CFD are inaccurate in reliably identifying residual disease. The serum PSA at this time of biopsy was twice as good at predicting a positive biopsy. Since the serum PSA is as accurate in predicting subsequent disease progression, the use of post RT biopsies should be limited to protocol situations evaluating local control or for patients being considered for a salvage local treatment

A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

2014-09-01

LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

Externalizing Problems in Childhood and Adolescence Predict Subsequent Educational Achievement but for Different Genetic and Environmental Reasons

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Gary J.; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

Background: Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence.…

Software reliability

CERN Document Server

Bendell, A

1986-01-01

Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

Early perception of medication benefit predicts subsequent antipsychotic response in schizophrenia: "the consumer has a point" revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Ascher-Svanum, Haya; Weiden, Peter; Nyhuis, Allen W; Faries, Douglas E; Stauffer, Virginia; Kollack-Walker, Sara; Kinon, Bruce J

2014-07-01

An easy-to-administer tool for predicting response to antipsychotic treatment could improve the acute management of patients with schizophrenia. We assessed whether a patient's perception of medication benefit early in treatment could predict subsequent response or nonresponse to continued use of the same treatment. This post hoc analysis used data from a randomized, open-label trial of antipsychotics for treatment of schizophrenia in which attitudes about medication adherence were assessed after two weeks of antipsychotic treatment using the Rating of Medication Influences (ROMI) scale. The analysis included 439 patients who had Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and ROMI scale data at Weeks 2 and 8. Scores on the ROMI subscale Perceived Medication Benefit factor were used to predict subsequent antipsychotic response at Week 8, defined as a .20% reduction from baseline on the PANSS. Logistic regression was used to identify a cut-off score for the Perceived Medication Benefit factor that could accurately identify antipsychotic responders vs. nonresponders at Week 8. A score of .2.75 (equal to a mean subscale score of .11.00) on the ROMI scale Perceived Medication Benefit factor at Week 2 predicted response at Week 8 with high specificity (72%) and negative predictive value (70%), moderate sensitivity (44%) and positive predictive value (47%), and with a 38% misclassification rate. A brief assessment of the patient's perception of medication benefit at two weeks into treatment appears to be a good predictor of subsequent response and nonresponse after eight weeks of treatment with the same antipsychotic.

Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

2012-12-01

This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

Developing Predictive Maintenance Expertise to Improve Plant Equipment Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-01-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

Reliability Prediction Approaches For Domestic Intelligent Electric Energy Meter Based on IEC62380

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ning; Tong, Guanghua; Yang, Jincheng; Sun, Guodong; Han, Dongjun; Wang, Guixian

2018-01-01

The reliability of intelligent electric energy meter is a crucial issue considering its large calve application and safety of national intelligent grid. This paper developed a procedure of reliability prediction for domestic intelligent electric energy meter according to IEC62380, especially to identify the determination of model parameters combining domestic working conditions. A case study was provided to show the effectiveness and validation.

Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

1986-01-01

The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

The application of cognitive models to the evaluation and prediction of human reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.; Reason, J.T.

1986-01-01

The first section of the paper provides a brief overview of a number of important principles relevant to human reliability modeling that have emerged from cognitive models, and presents a synthesis of these approaches in the form of a Generic Error Modeling System (GEMS). The next section illustrates the application of GEMS to some well known nuclear power plant (NPP) incidents in which human error was a major contributor. The way in which design recommendations can emerge from analyses of this type is illustrated. The third section describes the use of cognitive models in the classification of human errors for prediction and data collection purposes. The final section addresses the predictive modeling of human error as part of human reliability assessment in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein-protein interactions from more than 100 species.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Reliability and Validity of the Load-Velocity Relationship to Predict the 1RM Back Squat.

Science.gov (United States)

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, Kazunori; Haff, G Gregory

2017-07-01

Banyard, HG, Nosaka, K, and Haff, GG. Reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the 1RM back squat. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 1897-1904, 2017-This study investigated the reliability and validity of the load-velocity relationship to predict the free-weight back squat one repetition maximum (1RM). Seventeen strength-trained males performed three 1RM assessments on 3 separate days. All repetitions were performed to full depth with maximal concentric effort. Predicted 1RMs were calculated by entering the mean concentric velocity of the 1RM (V1RM) into an individualized linear regression equation, which was derived from the load-velocity relationship of 3 (20, 40, 60% of 1RM), 4 (20, 40, 60, 80% of 1RM), or 5 (20, 40, 60, 80, 90% of 1RM) incremental warm-up sets. The actual 1RM (140.3 ± 27.2 kg) was very stable between 3 trials (ICC = 0.99; SEM = 2.9 kg; CV = 2.1%; ES = 0.11). Predicted 1RM from 5 warm-up sets up to and including 90% of 1RM was the most reliable (ICC = 0.92; SEM = 8.6 kg; CV = 5.7%; ES = -0.02) and valid (r = 0.93; SEE = 10.6 kg; CV = 7.4%; ES = 0.71) of the predicted 1RM methods. However, all predicted 1RMs were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05; ES = 0.71-1.04) from the actual 1RM. Individual variation for the actual 1RM was small between trials ranging from -5.6 to 4.8% compared with the most accurate predictive method up to 90% of 1RM, which was more variable (-5.5 to 27.8%). Importantly, the V1RM (0.24 ± 0.06 m·s) was unreliable between trials (ICC = 0.42; SEM = 0.05 m·s; CV = 22.5%; ES = 0.14). The load-velocity relationship for the full depth free-weight back squat showed moderate reliability and validity but could not accurately predict 1RM, which was stable between trials. Thus, the load-velocity relationship 1RM prediction method used in this study cannot accurately modify sessional training loads because of large V1RM variability.

Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

2011-01-01

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

1993-08-01

This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

Nonparametric predictive inference for reliability of a k-out-of-m:G system with multiple component types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aboalkhair, Ahmad M.; Coolen, Frank P.A.; MacPhee, Iain M.

2014-01-01

Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability has recently been presented, with specific focus on k-out-of-m:G systems. The reliability of systems is quantified by lower and upper probabilities of system functioning, given binary test results on components, taking uncertainty about component functioning and indeterminacy due to limited test information explicitly into account. Thus far, systems considered were series configurations of subsystems, with each subsystem i a k i -out-of-m i :G system which consisted of only one type of components. Key results are briefly summarized in this paper, and as an important generalization new results are presented for a single k-out-of-m:G system consisting of components of multiple types. The important aspects of redundancy and diversity for such systems are discussed. - Highlights: • New results on nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability. • Prediction of system reliability based on test data for components. • New insights on system redundancy optimization and diversity. • Components that appear inferior in tests may be included to enhance redundancy

Externalizing problems in childhood and adolescence predict subsequent educational achievement but for different genetic and environmental reasons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Gary J; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-03-01

Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence. We examined genetic and environmental influences on parental ratings of behavior problems across childhood (age 4) and adolescence (ages 12 and 16) as predictors of educational achievement at age 16 using a longitudinal classical twin design. Shared-environmental influences on anxiety, conduct problems, and peer problems at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Genetic influences on the externalizing behaviors of conduct problems and hyperactivity at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Moreover, novel genetic and (to a lesser extent) nonshared-environmental influences acting on conduct problems and hyperactivity emerged at ages 12 and 16, adding to the genetic prediction from age 4. These findings demonstrate that genetic and shared-environmental factors underpinning behavior problems in early childhood predict educational achievement in midadolescence. These findings are consistent with the notion that early-childhood behavior problems reflect the initiation of a life-course persistent trajectory with concomitant implications for social attainment. However, we also find evidence that genetic and nonshared-environment innovations acting on behavior problems have implications for subsequent educational achievement, consistent with recent work arguing that adolescence represents a sensitive period for socioaffective development. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Discovery of serum biomarkers predicting development of a subsequent depressive episode in social anxiety disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschalk, M G; Cooper, J D; Chan, M K; Bot, M; Penninx, B W J H; Bahn, S

2015-08-01

Although social anxiety disorder (SAD) is strongly associated with the subsequent development of a depressive disorder (major depressive disorder or dysthymia), no underlying biological risk factors are known. We aimed to identify biomarkers which predict depressive episodes in SAD patients over a 2-year follow-up period. One hundred sixty-five multiplexed immunoassay analytes were investigated in blood serum of 143 SAD patients without co-morbid depressive disorders, recruited within the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). Predictive performance of identified biomarkers, clinical variables and self-report inventories was assessed using receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and represented by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Stepwise logistic regression resulted in the selection of four serum analytes (AXL receptor tyrosine kinase, vascular cell adhesion molecule 1, vitronectin, collagen IV) and four additional variables (Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, Beck Anxiety Inventory somatic subscale, depressive disorder lifetime diagnosis, BMI) as optimal set of patient parameters. When combined, an AUC of 0.86 was achieved for the identification of SAD individuals who later developed a depressive disorder. Throughout our analyses, biomarkers yielded superior discriminative performance compared to clinical variables and self-report inventories alone. We report the discovery of a serum marker panel with good predictive performance to identify SAD individuals prone to develop subsequent depressive episodes in a naturalistic cohort design. Furthermore, we emphasise the importance to combine biological markers, clinical variables and self-report inventories for disease course predictions in psychiatry. Following replication in independent cohorts, validated biomarkers could help to identify SAD patients at risk of developing a depressive disorder, thus facilitating early intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A generic method for assignment of reliability scores applied to solvent accessibility predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Bent; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl; Andersen, Pernille

2009-01-01

: The performance of the neural networks was evaluated on a commonly used set of sequences known as the CB513 set. An overall Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.72 was obtained, which is comparable to the performance of the currently best public available method, Real-SPINE. Both methods associate a reliability...... comparing the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the upper 20% of predictions sorted according to reliability. For this subset, values of 0.79 and 0.74 are obtained using our and the compared method, respectively. This tendency is true for any selected subset....

Development of equipment reliability process using predictive technologies at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taniguchi, Yuji; Sakuragi, Futoshi; Hamada, Seiichi

2014-01-01

Development of equipment reliability(ER) process, specifically for predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies integrated condition based maintenance (CBM) process, at Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station is introduced in this paper. Integration of predictive maintenance technologies such as vibration, oil analysis and thermo monitoring is more than important to establish strong maintenance strategies and to direct a specific technical development. In addition, a practical example of CBM is also presented to support the advantage of the idea. (author)

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

2015-01-01

An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

Science.gov (United States)

Michaelides, Stylianos

Flip Chip on Board (FCOB) and Chip-Scale Packages (CSPs) are relatively new technologies that are being increasingly used in the electronic packaging industry. Compared to the more widely used face-up wirebonding and TAB technologies, flip-chips and most CSPs provide the shortest possible leads, lower inductance, higher frequency, better noise control, higher density, greater input/output (I/O), smaller device footprint and lower profile. However, due to the short history and due to the introduction of several new electronic materials, designs, and processing conditions, very limited work has been done to understand the role of material, geometry, and processing parameters on the reliability of flip-chip devices. Also, with the ever-increasing complexity of semiconductor packages and with the continued reduction in time to market, it is too costly to wait until the later stages of design and testing to discover that the reliability is not satisfactory. The objective of the research is to develop integrated process-reliability models that will take into consideration the mechanics of assembly processes to be able to determine the reliability of face-down devices under thermal cycling and long-term temperature dwelling. The models incorporate the time and temperature-dependent constitutive behavior of various materials in the assembly to be able to predict failure modes such as die cracking and solder cracking. In addition, the models account for process-induced defects and macro-micro features of the assembly. Creep-fatigue and continuum-damage mechanics models for the solder interconnects and fracture-mechanics models for the die have been used to determine the reliability of the devices. The results predicted by the models have been successfully validated against experimental data. The validated models have been used to develop qualification and test procedures for implantable medical devices. In addition, the research has helped develop innovative face

Reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Frederik Banch; Krog, Grethe Risum; Rieneck, Klaus

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis.......The objective of this study was to establish a reliable test for prenatal prediction of fetal RhD type using maternal plasma from RhD negative women. This test is needed for future prenatal Rh prophylaxis....

General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

2016-01-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

TFTR CAMAC power supplies reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camp, R.A.; Bergin, W.

1989-01-01

Since the expected life of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been extended into the early 1990's, the issues of equipment wear-out, when to refurbish/replace, and the costs associated with these decisions, must be faced. The management of the maintenance of the TFTR Central Instrumentation, Control and Data Acquisition System (CICADA) power supplies within the CAMAC network is a case study of a set of systems to monitor repairable systems reliability, costs, and results of action. The CAMAC network is composed of approximately 500 racks, each with its own power supply. By using a simple reliability estimator on a coarse time interval, in conjunction with determining the root cause of individual failures, a cost effective repair and maintenance program has been realized. This paper describes the estimator, some of the specific causes for recurring failures and their correction, and the subsequent effects on the reliability estimator. By extension of this program the authors can assess the continued viability of CAMAC power supplies into the future, predicting wear-out and developing cost effective refurbishment/replacement policies. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Reliability Prediction Of System And Component Of Process System Of RSG-GAS Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sitorus Pane, Jupiter

2001-01-01

The older the reactor the higher the probability of the system and components suffer from loss of function or degradation. This phenomenon occurred because of wear, corrosion, and fatigue. Study on component reliability was generally performed deterministically and statistically. This paper would describe an analysis of using statistical method, i.e. regression Cox, in order to predict the reliability of the components and their environmental influence's factors. The result showed that the dynamics, non safety related, and mechanic components have higher risk of failure, whereas static, safety related, and electric have lower risk of failures. The relative risk value for variable of components dynamics, quality, dummy 1 and dummy 2 are of 1.54, 1.59, 1.50, and 0.83 compare to other components type with each variable. Component with the higher risk have lower reliability than lower one

Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

2017-01-01

The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

1978-01-01

The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

The Past Is Present: Representations of Parents, Friends, and Romantic Partners Predict Subsequent Romantic Representations.

Science.gov (United States)

Furman, Wyndol; Collibee, Charlene

2018-01-01

This study examined how representations of parent-child relationships, friendships, and past romantic relationships are related to subsequent romantic representations. Two-hundred 10th graders (100 female; M age  = 15.87 years) from diverse neighborhoods in a Western U.S. city were administered questionnaires and were interviewed to assess avoidant and anxious representations of their relationships with parents, friends, and romantic partners. Participants then completed similar questionnaires and interviews about their romantic representations six more times over the next 7.5 years. Growth curve analyses revealed that representations of relationships with parents, friends, and romantic partners each uniquely predicted subsequent romantic representations across development. Consistent with attachment and behavioral systems theory, representations of romantic relationships are revised by representations and experiences in other relationships. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Predictable and reliable ECG monitoring over IEEE 802.11 WLANs within a hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juyoung; Kang, Kyungtae

2014-09-01

Telecardiology provides mobility for patients who require constant electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring. However, its safety is dependent on the predictability and robustness of data delivery, which must overcome errors in the wireless channel through which the ECG data are transmitted. We report here a framework that can be used to gauge the applicability of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network (WLAN) technology to ECG monitoring systems in terms of delay constraints and transmission reliability. For this purpose, a medical-grade WLAN architecture achieved predictable delay through the combination of a medium access control mechanism based on the point coordination function provided by IEEE 802.11 and an error control scheme based on Reed-Solomon coding and block interleaving. The size of the jitter buffer needed was determined by this architecture to avoid service dropout caused by buffer underrun, through analysis of variations in transmission delay. Finally, we assessed this architecture in terms of service latency and reliability by modeling the transmission of uncompressed two-lead electrocardiogram data from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database and highlight the applicability of this wireless technology to telecardiology.

Genotyping cows for the reference increase reliability of genomic prediction in a small breed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Lund, Mogens Sandø

2013-01-01

We hypothesized that adding cows to the reference population in a breed with a small number of reference bulls would increase reliabilities of genomic breeding values and genetic gain. We tested this premise by comparing two strategies for maintaining the reference population for genetic gain......, inbreeding and reliabilities of genomic predictions: 1) Adding 60 progeny tested bulls each year (B), and 2) in addition to 60 progeny tested bulls, adding 2,000 genotyped cows per year (C). Two breeding schemes were tested: 1) A turbo scheme (T) with only genotyped young bulls used intensively, and 2...... compared to the H-B, at the same level of ∆F. T-C yielded 15% higher ∆G compared t o T-B. Changing the breeding scheme from H-B to H-C increased ∆G by 5.5%. The lowest ∆F was observed with genotyping of cows. Reliabilities of GEBV in the C schemes showed a steep increase in reliability during the first...

[Reliability and validity of the Braden Scale for predicting pressure sore risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Boes, C

2000-12-01

For more accurate and objective pressure sore risk assessment various risk assessment tools were developed mainly in the USA and Great Britain. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk is one such example. By means of a literature analysis of German and English texts referring to the Braden Scale the scientific control criteria reliability and validity will be traced and consequences for application of the scale in Germany will be demonstrated. Analysis of 4 reliability studies shows an exclusive focus on interrater reliability. Further, even though examination of 19 validity studies occurs in many different settings, such examination is limited to the criteria sensitivity and specificity (accuracy). The range of sensitivity and specificity level is 35-100%. The recommended cut off points rank in the field of 10 to 19 points. The studies prove to be not comparable with each other. Furthermore, distortions in these studies can be found which affect accuracy of the scale. The results of the here presented analysis show an insufficient proof for reliability and validity in the American studies. In Germany, the Braden scale has not yet been tested under scientific criteria. Such testing is needed before using the scale in different German settings. During the course of such testing, construction and study procedures of the American studies can be used as a basis as can the problems be identified in the analysis presented below.

Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

2013-10-01

Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

1986-01-01

The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

Improving the reliability of female fertility breeding values using type and milk yield traits that predict energy status in Australian Holstein cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Recio, O; Haile-Mariam, M; Pryce, J E

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to propose changing the selection criteria trait for evaluating fertility in Australia from calving interval to conception rate at d 42 after the beginning of the mating season and (2) to use type traits as early fertility predictors, to increase the reliability of estimated breeding values for fertility. The breeding goal in Australia is conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season. Currently, the Australian model to predict fertility breeding values (expressed as a linear transformation of calving interval) is a multitrait model that includes calving interval (CVI), lactation length (LL), calving to first service (CFS), first nonreturn rate (FNRR), and conception rate. However, CVI has a lower genetic correlation with the breeding goal (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) than conception rate. Milk yield, type, and fertility data from 164,318 cow sired by 4,766 bulls were used. Principal component analysis and genetic correlation estimates between type and fertility traits were used to select type traits that could subsequently be used in a multitrait analysis. Angularity, foot angle, and pin set were chosen as type traits to include in an index with the traits that are included in the multitrait fertility model: CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and conception rate at d 42 (CR42). An index with these 8 traits is expected to achieve an average bull first proof reliability of 0.60 on the breeding objective (conception within 6 wk of the start of the mating season) compared with reliabilities of 0.39 and 0.45 for CR42 only or the current 5-trait Australian model. Subsequently, we used the first eigenvector of a principal component analysis with udder texture, bone quality, angularity, and body condition score to calculate an energy status indicator trait. The inclusion of the energy status indicator trait composite in a multitrait index with CVI, LL, CFS, FNRR, and CR42 achieved a 12-point increase in

Alpha Oscillations during Incidental Encoding Predict Subsequent Memory for New "Foil" Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogelsang, David A; Gruber, Matthias; Bergström, Zara M; Ranganath, Charan; Simons, Jon S

2018-05-01

People can employ adaptive strategies to increase the likelihood that previously encoded information will be successfully retrieved. One such strategy is to constrain retrieval toward relevant information by reimplementing the neurocognitive processes that were engaged during encoding. Using EEG, we examined the temporal dynamics with which constraining retrieval toward semantic versus nonsemantic information affects the processing of new "foil" information encountered during a memory test. Time-frequency analysis of EEG data acquired during an initial study phase revealed that semantic compared with nonsemantic processing was associated with alpha decreases in a left frontal electrode cluster from around 600 msec after stimulus onset. Successful encoding of semantic versus nonsemantic foils during a subsequent memory test was related to decreases in alpha oscillatory activity in the same left frontal electrode cluster, which emerged relatively late in the trial at around 1000-1600 msec after stimulus onset. Across participants, left frontal alpha power elicited by semantic processing during the study phase correlated significantly with left frontal alpha power associated with semantic foil encoding during the memory test. Furthermore, larger left frontal alpha power decreases elicited by semantic foil encoding during the memory test predicted better subsequent semantic foil recognition in an additional surprise foil memory test, although this effect did not reach significance. These findings indicate that constraining retrieval toward semantic information involves reimplementing semantic encoding operations that are mediated by alpha oscillations and that such reimplementation occurs at a late stage of memory retrieval, perhaps reflecting additional monitoring processes.

Reliability of dipstick assay in predicting urinary tract infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anith Kumar Mambatta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: Urine dipstick analysis is a quick, cheap and a useful test in predicting Urinary Tract Infection (UTI in hospitalized patients. Our aim is to evaluate the reliability (sensitivity of urine dipstick analysis against urine culture in the diagnosis of UTI. Materials and Methods: Patients admitted to our hospital suspected of having UTI, with positive urine cultures were included in this study from a 2-year period (January 2011 to December 2012. Dipstick urinalysis was done using multistix 10 SG (Siemens and clinitek advantus analyzer. The sensitivity of dipstick nitrites, leukocyte esterase and blood in these culture-positive UTI patients was calculated retrospectively. Results: Urine dipstick analysis of 635 urine culture-positive patients was studied. The sensitivity of nitrite alone and leukocyte esterase alone were 23.31% and 48.5%, respectively. The sensitivity of blood alone in positive urine culture was 63.94%, which was the highest sensitivity for a single screening test. The presence of leukocyte esterase and/or blood increased the sensitivity to 72.28%. The sensitivity was found to be the highest when nitrite, leukocyte and blood were considered together. Conclusions: Nitrite test and leukocyte esterase test when used individually is not reliable to rule out UTI. Hence, symptomatic UTI patients with negative dipstick assay should be subjected to urine culture for a proper management.

How reliable must advanced nondestructive testing be? A concept for the prediction, validation and raised quality of NDT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nockemann, C.; Tillack, G.R.; Schnitger, D.; Heidt, H.

1995-01-01

A concept of the harmonic integration of the following three mainstays of the reliability of ndt is proposed: 1. Theoretical prediction of the reliability as a function of physical parameter by computer modelling of the test problem concerned and the ndt process; maximisation by variation of the parameters. 2. Experimental evaluation of the reliability of ndt processes by the application of statistical methods to test practice. 3. Increasing the reliability by the combination of several ndt methods in a standard DV environment and European interconnection and provision of a distributed databank system. International exchange of experience via telecommunication. (orig.) [de

A Tutorial on Nonlinear Time-Series Data Mining in Engineering Asset Health and Reliability Prediction: Concepts, Models, and Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Dong

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.

An Introduction To Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Kyoung Su

1993-08-01

This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

Science.gov (United States)

Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

2008-01-01

This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

Do Functional Movement Screen (FMS) composite scores predict subsequent injury? A systematic review with meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Robert W; Schneiders, Anthony G; Mason, Jesse; Sullivan, S John

2017-12-01

This paper aims to systematically review studies investigating the strength of association between FMS composite scores and subsequent risk of injury, taking into account both methodological quality and clinical and methodological diversity. Systematic review with meta-analysis. A systematic search of electronic databases was conducted for the period between their inception and 3 March 2016 using PubMed, Medline, Google Scholar, Scopus, Academic Search Complete, AMED (Allied and Complementary Medicine Database), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), Health Source and SPORTDiscus. Inclusion criteria: (1) English language, (2) observational prospective cohort design, (3) original and peer-reviewed data, (4) composite FMS score, used to define exposure and non-exposure groups and (5) musculoskeletal injury, reported as the outcome. (1) data reported in conference abstracts or non-peer-reviewed literature, including theses, and (2) studies employing cross-sectional or retrospective study designs. 24 studies were appraised using the Quality of Cohort Studies assessment tool. In male military personnel, there was 'strong' evidence that the strength of association between FMS composite score (cut-point ≤14/21) and subsequent injury was 'small' (pooled risk ratio=1.47, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.77, p<0.0001, I 2 =57%). There was 'moderate' evidence to recommend against the use of FMS composite score as an injury prediction test in football (soccer). For other populations (including American football, college athletes, basketball, ice hockey, running, police and firefighters), the evidence was 'limited' or 'conflicting'. The strength of association between FMS composite scores and subsequent injury does not support its use as an injury prediction tool. PROSPERO registration number CRD42015025575. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted

Learned helplessness: validity and reliability of depressive-like states in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Chourbaji, S; Zacher, C; Sanchis-Segura, C; Dormann, C; Vollmayr, B; Gass, P

2005-12-01

The learned helplessness paradigm is a depression model in which animals are exposed to unpredictable and uncontrollable stress, e.g. electroshocks, and subsequently develop coping deficits for aversive but escapable situations (J.B. Overmier, M.E. Seligman, Effects of inescapable shock upon subsequent escape and avoidance responding, J. Comp. Physiol. Psychol. 63 (1967) 28-33 ). It represents a model with good similarity to the symptoms of depression, construct, and predictive validity in rats. Despite an increased need to investigate emotional, in particular depression-like behaviors in transgenic mice, so far only a few studies have been published using the learned helplessness paradigm. One reason may be the fact that-in contrast to rats (B. Vollmayr, F.A. Henn, Learned helplessness in the rat: improvements in validity and reliability, Brain Res. Brain Res. Protoc. 8 (2001) 1-7)--there is no generally accepted learned helplessness protocol available for mice. This prompted us to develop a reliable helplessness procedure in C57BL/6N mice, to exclude possible artifacts, and to establish a protocol, which yields a consistent fraction of helpless mice following the shock exposure. Furthermore, we validated this protocol pharmacologically using the tricyclic antidepressant imipramine. Here, we present a mouse model with good face and predictive validity that can be used for transgenic, behavioral, and pharmacological studies.

HitPredict version 4: comprehensive reliability scoring of physical protein?protein interactions from more than 100 species

OpenAIRE

L?pez, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini

2015-01-01

HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein?protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein?protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of p...

Reliability of self-reported childhood physical abuse by adults and factors predictive of inconsistent reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

McKinney, Christy M; Harris, T Robert; Caetano, Raul

2009-01-01

Little is known about the reliability of self-reported child physical abuse (CPA) or CPA reporting practices. We estimated reliability and prevalence of self-reported CPA and identified factors predictive of inconsistent CPA reporting among 2,256 participants using surveys administered in 1995 and 2000. Reliability of CPA was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.41). Using a positive report from either survey, the prevalence of moderate (61.8%) and severe (12.0%) CPA was higher than at either survey alone. Compared to consistent reporters of having experienced CPA, inconsistent reporters were less likely to be > or = 30 years old (vs. 18-29) or Black (vs. White) and more likely to have report one type (vs. > or = 2) of CPA. These findings may assist researchers conducting and interpreting studies of CPA.

An overall methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design with industrial application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habchi, Georges; Barthod, Christine

2016-01-01

We propose in this paper an overall ten-step methodology dedicated to the analysis and quantification of reliability during the design phase of a mechatronic system, considered as a complex system. The ten steps of the methodology are detailed according to the downward side of the V-development cycle usually used for the design of complex systems. Two main phases of analysis are complementary and cover the ten steps, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative phase proposes to analyze the functional and dysfunctional behavior of the system and then determine its different failure modes and degradation states, based on external and internal functional analysis, organic and physical implementation, and dependencies between components, with consideration of customer specifications and mission profile. The quantitative phase is used to calculate the reliability of the system and its components, based on the qualitative behavior patterns, and considering data gathering and processing and reliability targets. Systemic approach is used to calculate the reliability of the system taking into account: the different technologies of a mechatronic system (mechanics, electronics, electrical .), dependencies and interactions between components and external influencing factors. To validate the methodology, the ten steps are applied to an industrial system, the smart actuator of Pack'Aero Company. - Highlights: • A ten-step methodology for reliability prediction of mechatronic systems design. • Qualitative and quantitative analysis for reliability evaluation using PN and RBD. • A dependency matrix proposal, based on the collateral and functional interactions. • Models consider mission profile, deterioration, interactions and influent factors. • Application and validation of the methodology on the “Smart Actuator” of PACK’AERO.

Predicting persuasion-induced behavior change from the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Emily B; Berkman, Elliot T; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D

2010-06-23

Although persuasive messages often alter people's self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance.

Does subsequent criminal justice involvement predict foster care and termination of parental rights for children born to incarcerated women?

Science.gov (United States)

Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott; Kasiborski, Natalie; Karim, Nidal; Schmittel, Emily

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study of 83 incarcerated women, who gave birth during incarceration and retained their parental rights through brief sentences, examines the intersection between subsequent criminal justice involvement postrelease and child welfare outcomes. Ten years of multiple state-level administrative data sets are used to determine if arrest or conviction predict foster care and/or termination of parental rights. Findings indicate that only felony arrest is a significant predictor of foster care involvement. Additionally, 69% of mothers retained legal custody, despite subsequent criminal involvement for many, suggesting supportive parenting programs and resources need to be available to these women throughout and after incarceration.

Developing a novel hierarchical approach for multiscale structural reliability predictions for ultra-high consequence applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Emery, John M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Coffin, Peter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robbins, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Carroll, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Field, Richard V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeremy Yoo, Yung Suk [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kacher, Josh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-09-01

Microstructural variabilities are among the predominant sources of uncertainty in structural performance and reliability. We seek to develop efficient algorithms for multiscale calcu- lations for polycrystalline alloys such as aluminum alloy 6061-T6 in environments where ductile fracture is the dominant failure mode. Our approach employs concurrent multiscale methods, but does not focus on their development. They are a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to multiscale reliability predictions. We have focused on how to efficiently use concurrent models for forward propagation because practical applications cannot include fine-scale details throughout the problem domain due to exorbitant computational demand. Our approach begins with a low-fidelity prediction at the engineering scale that is sub- sequently refined with multiscale simulation. The results presented in this report focus on plasticity and damage at the meso-scale, efforts to expedite Monte Carlo simulation with mi- crostructural considerations, modeling aspects regarding geometric representation of grains and second-phase particles, and contrasting algorithms for scale coupling.

Reliability of didactic grades to predict practical skills in an undergraduate dental college in Saudi Arabia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zawawi, Khalid H; Afify, Ahmed R; Yousef, Mohammed K; Othman, Hisham I; Al-Dharrab, Ayman A

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study was aimed to investigate the association between didactic grades and practical skills for dental students and whether didactic grades can reliability predict the dental students' practical performance. Didactic and practical grades for graduates from the Faculty of Dentistry, King Abdulaziz University, between the years 2009 and 2011 were collected. Four courses were selected: Dental Anatomy, Operative Dentistry, Prosthodontics, and Orthodontics. Pearson product-moment correlation analyses between didactic and practical scores were conducted. There was only a significant correlation between didactic and practical scores for the Dental Anatomy course (Pdidactic scores (Pdidactic and practical scores for all subjects. Based on the findings of this study, the relationship between didactic grades and practical performance is course specific. Didactic grades do not reliably predict the students' practical skills. Measuring practical performances should be independent from didactic grading.

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark Jay

551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

Reliability of hunger-related assessments during 24-hour fasts and their relationship to body composition and subsequent energy compensation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinsley, Grant M; Moore, M Lane; Graybeal, Austin J

2018-05-01

Many diets employ regular periods of fasting that extend beyond a typical overnight fast (i.e. intermittent fasting [IF]). Evaluation of acute fasting responses provides information concerning the potential theoretical rationale for IF. The purpose of the present investigation was to assess the test-retest reliability of hunger-related variables during 24-hour fasts and the relationship between these variables and body composition, as well as subsequent energy intake (EI) after fasting. Eleven participants (6 F, 5 M) completed two 24-hour fasts after being provided a 3-day standardized weight-maintenance diet. From 16 to 24 h of fasting, participants were directly observed and provided hourly assessments of hunger, desire to eat (DTE), prospective food consumption (PFC), fullness and energy. After the fast, participants were allowed ad libitum food consumption, and compensation was calculated as EI relative to weight-maintenance energy needs. Test-retest reliability for hunger-related assessments at particular durations of fasting was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), changes in dependent variables were evaluated using ANOVA with repeated measures, and relationships between variables were explored using bivariate correlations. At 16 h of fasting, the ICCs for all hunger-related assessments were statistically significant (r = 0.67-0.91; p ≤ 0.05). However, as the fast progressed, reliability varied substantially. When averaged across the nine measurements, the ICCs were: 0.81 (fullness), 0.74 (PFC), 0.67 (energy), 0.44 (DTE) and 0.36 (hunger). Body fat percentage was significantly correlated with changes in PFC (r = 0.62, p = 0.04), hunger (r = 0.66, p = 0.03), DTE (r = 0.71, p = 0.02), and fullness (r = -0.63, p = 0.04), but not energy (r = -0.16, p = 0.64). Average EI compensation was only 60% of weight-maintenance needs, but substantial variability was observed (7 to 110

Increase in waist circumference over 6 years predicts subsequent cardiovascular disease and total mortality in nordic women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klingberg, Sofia; Mehlig, Kirsten; Lanfer, Anne

2015-01-01

-shaped association. Associations between increase in WC and outcomes were restricted to women with normal weight at baseline and to ever-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to changes in HC which did not predict mortality and CVD, a 6-year increase in WC is strongly predictive, particularly among initially lean women...... and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women but that gain or loss in HC was unrelated to these outcomes. This study examines whether a 6-year change in waist circumference (WC) predicts mortality and CVD in the same study sample. METHODS: Baseline WC and 6-year change in WC as predictors of mortality and CVD...... were analyzed in 2,492 women from the Danish MONICA study and the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg, Sweden. RESULTS: Increase in WC was significantly associated with increased subsequent mortality and CVD adjusting for BMI and other covariates, with some evidence of a J...

Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Weixian

2000-03-01

Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

Reliability, Validity, and Predictive Utility of the 25-Item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS)

OpenAIRE

Tangney, June Price; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Furukawa, Emi; Kopelovich, Sarah; Meyer, Patrick; Cosby, Brandon

2012-01-01

Theory, research, and clinical reports suggest that moral cognitions play a role in initiating and sustaining criminal behavior. The 25 item Criminogenic Cognitions Scale (CCS) was designed to tap 5 dimensions: Notions of entitlement; Failure to Accept Responsibility; Short-Term Orientation; Insensitivity to Impact of Crime; and Negative Attitudes Toward Authority. Results from 552 jail inmates support the reliability, validity, and predictive utility of the measure. The CCS was linked to cri...

The 6-min push test is reliable and predicts low fitness in spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan, Rachel E; Callahan, Morgan K; Nash, Mark S

2012-10-01

The objective of this study is to assess 6-min push test (6MPT) reliability, determine whether the 6MPT is sensitive to fitness differences, and assess if 6MPT distance predicts fitness level in persons with spinal cord injury (SCI) or disease. Forty individuals with SCI who could self-propel a manual wheelchair completed an incremental arm crank peak oxygen consumption assessment and two 6MPTs across 3 d (37% tetraplegia (TP), 63% paraplegia (PP), 85% men, 70% white, 63% Hispanic, mean age = 34 ± 10 yr, mean duration of injury = 13 ± 10 yr, and mean body mass index = 24 ± 5 kg.m). Intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots assessed 6MPT distance (m) reliability. Mann-Whitney U test compared 6MPT distance (m) of high and low fitness groups for TP and PP. The fitness status prediction was developed using N = 30 and validated in N = 10 (validation group (VG)). A nonstatistical prediction approach, below or above a threshold distance (TP = 445 m and PP = 604 m), was validated statistically by binomial logistic regression. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were computed to evaluate the threshold approach. Intraclass correlation coefficients exceeded 0.90 for the whole sample and the TP/PP subsets. High fitness persons propelled farther than low fitness persons for both TP/PP (both P < 0.05). Binomial logistic regression (P < 0.008) predicted the same fitness levels in the VG as the threshold approach. In the VG, overall accuracy was 70%. Eighty-six percent of low fitness persons were correctly identified (sensitivity), and 33% of high fitness persons were correctly identified (specificity). The 6MPT may be a useful tool for SCI clinicians and researchers. 6MPT distance demonstrates excellent reliability and is sensitive to differences in fitness level. 6MPT distances less than a threshold distance may be an effective approach to identify low fitness in person with SCI.

Validated Loads Prediction Models for Offshore Wind Turbines for Enhanced Component Reliability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koukoura, Christina

To improve the reliability of offshore wind turbines, accurate prediction of their response is required. Therefore, validation of models with site measurements is imperative. In the present thesis a 3.6MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine on a monopole foundation is built...... are used for the modification of the sub-structure/foundation design for possible material savings. First, the background of offshore wind engineering, including wind-wave conditions, support structure, blade loading and wind turbine dynamics are presented. Second, a detailed description of the site...

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz [Air Force Institute of Technology ul. Księcia Bolesława 6 01-494 Warsaw (Poland)

2016-06-08

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

An application of characteristic function in order to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Żurek, Józef; Kaleta, Ryszard; Zieja, Mariusz

2016-01-01

The forecasting of reliability and life of aeronautical hardware requires recognition of many and various destructive processes that deteriorate the health/maintenance status thereof. The aging of technical components of aircraft as an armament system proves of outstanding significance to reliability and safety of the whole system. The aging process is usually induced by many and various factors, just to mention mechanical, biological, climatic, or chemical ones. The aging is an irreversible process and considerably affects (i.e. reduces) reliability and lifetime of aeronautical equipment. Application of the characteristic function of the aging process is suggested to predict reliability and lifetime of aeronautical hardware. An increment in values of diagnostic parameters is introduced to formulate then, using the characteristic function and after some rearrangements, the partial differential equation. An analytical dependence for the characteristic function of the aging process is a solution to this equation. With the inverse transformation applied, the density function of the aging of aeronautical hardware is found. Having found the density function, one can determine the aeronautical equipment’s reliability and lifetime. The in-service collected or the life tests delivered data are used to attain this goal. Coefficients in this relationship are found using the likelihood function.

Interaction between hippocampal and striatal systems predicts subsequent consolidation of motor sequence memory.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geneviève Albouy

Full Text Available The development of fast and reproducible motor behavior is a crucial human capacity. The aim of the present study was to address the relationship between the implementation of consistent behavior during initial training on a sequential motor task (the Finger Tapping Task and subsequent sleep-dependent motor sequence memory consolidation, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI and total sleep deprivation protocol. Our behavioral results indicated significant offline gains in performance speed after sleep whereas performance was only stabilized, but not enhanced, after sleep deprivation. At the cerebral level, we previously showed that responses in the caudate nucleus increase, in parallel to a decrease in its functional connectivity with frontal areas, as performance became more consistent. Here, the strength of the competitive interaction, assessed through functional connectivity analyses, between the caudate nucleus and hippocampo-frontal areas during initial training, predicted delayed gains in performance at retest in sleepers but not in sleep-deprived subjects. Moreover, during retest, responses increased in the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex in sleepers whereas in sleep-deprived subjects, responses increased in the putamen and cingulate cortex. Our results suggest that the strength of the competitive interplay between the striatum and the hippocampus, participating in the implementation of consistent motor behavior during initial training, conditions subsequent motor sequence memory consolidation. The latter process appears to be supported by a reorganisation of cerebral activity in hippocampo-neocortical networks after sleep.

Radiomic signature of infiltration in peritumoral edema predicts subsequent recurrence in glioblastoma: implications for personalized radiotherapy planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Rathore, Saima; Akbari, Hamed; Doshi, Jimit; Shukla, Gaurav; Rozycki, Martin; Bilello, Michel; Lustig, Robert; Davatzikos, Christos

2018-04-01

Standard surgical resection of glioblastoma, mainly guided by the enhancement on postcontrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), disregards infiltrating tumor within the peritumoral edema region (ED). Subsequent radiotherapy typically delivers uniform radiation to peritumoral FLAIR-hyperintense regions, without attempting to target areas likely to be infiltrated more heavily. Noninvasive in vivo delineation of the areas of tumor infiltration and prediction of early recurrence in peritumoral ED could assist in targeted intensification of local therapies, thereby potentially delaying recurrence and prolonging survival. This paper presents a method for estimating peritumoral edema infiltration using radiomic signatures determined via machine learning methods, and tests it on 90 patients with de novo glioblastoma. The generalizability of the proposed predictive model was evaluated via cross-validation in a discovery cohort ([Formula: see text]) and was subsequently evaluated in a replication cohort ([Formula: see text]). Spatial maps representing the likelihood of tumor infiltration and future early recurrence were compared with regions of recurrence on postresection follow-up studies with pathology confirmation. The cross-validated accuracy of our predictive infiltration model on the discovery and replication cohorts was 87.51% (odds ratio = 10.22, sensitivity = 80.65, and specificity = 87.63) and 89.54% (odds ratio = 13.66, sensitivity = 97.06, and specificity = 76.73), respectively. The radiomic signature of the recurrent tumor region revealed higher vascularity and cellularity when compared with the nonrecurrent region. The proposed model shows evidence that multiparametric pattern analysis from clinical MRI sequences can assist in in vivo estimation of the spatial extent and pattern of tumor recurrence in peritumoral edema, which may guide supratotal resection and/or intensification of postoperative radiation therapy.

An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.W.; Hofer, E.

1987-10-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)

Reliability: How much is it worth? Beyond its estimation or prediction, the (net) present value of reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

2006-01-01

In this article, we link an engineering concept, reliability, to a financial and managerial concept, net present value, by exploring the impact of a system's reliability on its revenue generation capability. The framework here developed for non-repairable systems quantitatively captures the value of reliability from a financial standpoint. We show that traditional present value calculations of engineering systems do not account for system reliability, thus over-estimate a system's worth and can therefore lead to flawed investment decisions. It is therefore important to involve reliability engineers upfront before investment decisions are made in technical systems. In addition, the analyses here developed help designers identify the optimal level of reliability that maximizes a system's net present value-the financial value reliability provides to the system minus the cost to achieve this level of reliability. Although we recognize that there are numerous considerations driving the specification of an engineering system's reliability, we contend that the financial analysis of reliability here developed should be made available to decision-makers to support in part, or at least be factored into, the system reliability specification

In silico prediction of genotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Wichard, Jörg D

2017-08-01

The in silico prediction of genotoxicity has made considerable progress during the last years. The main driver for the pharmaceutical industry is the ICH M7 guideline about the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. An important component of this guideline is the use of in silico models as an alternative approach to experimental testing. The in silico prediction of genotoxicity provides an established and accepted method that defines the first step in the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. This was made possible by the growing amount of reliable Ames screening data, the attempts to understand the activity pathways and the subsequent development of computer-based prediction systems. This paper gives an overview of how the in silico prediction of genotoxicity is performed under the ICH M7 guideline. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2015-01-01

While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

Software reliability studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hoppa, Mary Ann; Wilson, Larry W.

1994-01-01

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

1987-01-01

There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

A study of operational and testing reliability in software reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, B.; Xie, M.

2000-01-01

Software reliability is an important aspect of any complex equipment today. Software reliability is usually estimated based on reliability models such as nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models. Software systems are improving in testing phase, while it normally does not change in operational phase. Depending on whether the reliability is to be predicted for testing phase or operation phase, different measure should be used. In this paper, two different reliability concepts, namely, the operational reliability and the testing reliability, are clarified and studied in detail. These concepts have been mixed up or even misused in some existing literature. Using different reliability concept will lead to different reliability values obtained and it will further lead to different reliability-based decisions made. The difference of the estimated reliabilities is studied and the effect on the optimal release time is investigated

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

Reliability and Lifetime Prediction of Remote Phosphor Plates in Solid-State Lighting Applications Using Accelerated Degradation Testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yazdan Mehr, M.; van Driel, W.D.; Zhang, G.Q.

2015-01-01

A methodology, based on accelerated degradation testing, is developed to predict the lifetime of remote phosphor plates used in solid-state lighting (SSL) applications. Both thermal stress and light intensity are used to accelerate degradation reaction in remote phosphor plates. A reliability model,

Reliability of Power Electronic Converter Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

-link capacitance in power electronic converter systems; wind turbine systems; smart control strategies for improved reliability of power electronics system; lifetime modelling; power module lifetime test and state monitoring; tools for performance and reliability analysis of power electronics systems; fault...... for advancing the reliability, availability, system robustness, and maintainability of PECS at different levels of complexity. Drawing on the experience of an international team of experts, this book explores the reliability of PECS covering topics including an introduction to reliability engineering in power...... electronic converter systems; anomaly detection and remaining-life prediction for power electronics; reliability of DC-link capacitors in power electronic converters; reliability of power electronics packaging; modeling for life-time prediction of power semiconductor modules; minimization of DC...

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Wilker

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

LED system reliability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

2011-01-01

This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

Attendance Rates in A Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

OpenAIRE

Donlin, Wendy D; Knealing, Todd W; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J; Silverman, Kenneth

2008-01-01

This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N  =  111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction period, participants provided urine samples but could work independent of their urinalysis results. After the induction period, participants had to prov...

Reflow Process Parameters Analysis and Reliability Prediction Considering Multiple Characteristic Values

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo Yu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As a major step surface mount technology, reflow process is the key factor affecting the quality of the final product. The setting parameters and characteristic value of temperature curve shows a nonlinear relationship. So parameter impacts on characteristic values are analyzed and the parameters adjustment process based on orthogonal experiment is proposed in the paper. First, setting parameters are determined and the orthogonal test is designed according to production conditions. Then each characteristic value for temperature profile is calculated. Further, multi-index orthogonal experiment is analyzed for acquiring the setting parameters which impacts the PCBA product quality greater. Finally, reliability prediction is carried out considering the main influencing parameters for providing a theoretical basis of parameters adjustment and product quality evaluation in engineering process.

Reliability of nine programs of topological predictions and their application to integral membrane channel and carrier proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Abhinay; Cho, Jaehoon; Ling, Sam; Reddy, Vamsee; Shlykov, Maksim; Saier, Milton H

2014-01-01

We evaluated topological predictions for nine different programs, HMMTOP, TMHMM, SVMTOP, DAS, SOSUI, TOPCONS, PHOBIUS, MEMSAT-SVM (hereinafter referred to as MEMSAT), and SPOCTOPUS. These programs were first evaluated using four large topologically well-defined families of secondary transporters, and the three best programs were further evaluated using topologically more diverse families of channels and carriers. In the initial studies, the order of accuracy was: SPOCTOPUS > MEMSAT > HMMTOP > TOPCONS > PHOBIUS > TMHMM > SVMTOP > DAS > SOSUI. Some families, such as the Sugar Porter Family (2.A.1.1) of the Major Facilitator Superfamily (MFS; TC #2.A.1) and the Amino Acid/Polyamine/Organocation (APC) Family (TC #2.A.3), were correctly predicted with high accuracy while others, such as the Mitochondrial Carrier (MC) (TC #2.A.29) and the K(+) transporter (Trk) families (TC #2.A.38), were predicted with much lower accuracy. For small, topologically homogeneous families, SPOCTOPUS and MEMSAT were generally most reliable, while with large, more diverse superfamilies, HMMTOP often proved to have the greatest prediction accuracy. We next developed a novel program, TM-STATS, that tabulates HMMTOP, SPOCTOPUS or MEMSAT-based topological predictions for any subdivision (class, subclass, superfamily, family, subfamily, or any combination of these) of the Transporter Classification Database (TCDB; www.tcdb.org) and examined the following subclasses: α-type channel proteins (TC subclasses 1.A and 1.E), secreted pore-forming toxins (TC subclass 1.C) and secondary carriers (subclass 2.A). Histograms were generated for each of these subclasses, and the results were analyzed according to subclass, family and protein. The results provide an update of topological predictions for integral membrane transport proteins as well as guides for the development of more reliable topological prediction programs, taking family-specific characteristics into account. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Field reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elm, T.

1984-02-01

This report investigates, through several examples from the field, the reliability of electronic units in a broader sense. That is, it treats not just random parts failure, but also inadequate reliability design and (externally and internally) induced failures. The report is not meant to be merely an indication of the state of the art for the reliability prediction methods we know, but also as a contribution to the investigation of man-machine interplay in the operation and repair of electronic equipment. The report firmly links electronics reliability to safety and risk analyses approaches with a broader, system oriented view of reliability prediction and with postfailure stress analysis. It is intended to reveal, in a qualitative manner, the existence of symptom and cause patterns. It provides a background for further investigations to identify the detailed mechanisms of the faults and the remedical actions and precautions for achieving cost effective reliability. (author)

Early gross motor skills predict the subsequent development of language in children with autism spectrum disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedford, Rachael; Pickles, Andrew; Lord, Catherine

2016-09-01

Motor milestones such as the onset of walking are important developmental markers, not only for later motor skills but also for more widespread social-cognitive development. The aim of the current study was to test whether gross motor abilities, specifically the onset of walking, predicted the subsequent rate of language development in a large cohort of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We ran growth curve models for expressive and receptive language measured at 2, 3, 5 and 9 years in 209 autistic children. Measures of gross motor, visual reception and autism symptoms were collected at the 2 year visit. In Model 1, walking onset was included as a predictor of the slope of language development. Model 2 included a measure of non-verbal IQ and autism symptom severity as covariates. The final model, Model 3, additionally covaried for gross motor ability. In the first model, parent-reported age of walking onset significantly predicted the subsequent rate of language development although the relationship became non-significant when gross motor skill, non-verbal ability and autism severity scores were included (Models 2 & 3). Gross motor score, however, did remain a significant predictor of both expressive and receptive language development. Taken together, the model results provide some evidence that early motor abilities in young children with ASD can have longitudinal cross-domain influences, potentially contributing, in part, to the linguistic difficulties that characterise ASD. Autism Res 2016, 9: 993-1001. © 2015 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research. © 2015 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research.

Approach to reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

1975-01-01

Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

Fasting Plasma Insulin at 5 Years of Age Predicted Subsequent Weight Increase in Early Childhood over a 5-Year Period—The Da Qing Children Cohort Study

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yan Yan; Wang, Jin Ping; Jiang, Ya Yun; Li, Hui; Hu, Ying Hua; Lee, Kok Onn; Li, Guang Wei

2015-01-01

Background The association between hyperinsulinemia and obesity is well known. However, it is uncertain especially in childhood obesity, if initial fasting hyperinsulinemia predicts obesity, or obesity leads to hyperinsulinemia through insulin resistance. Objective To investigate the predictive effect of fasting plasma insulin on subsequent weight change after a 5-year interval in childhood. Methods 424 Children from Da Qing city, China, were recruited at 5 years of age and followed up for 5 years. Blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, fasting plasma insulin, glucose and triglycerides were measured at baseline and 5 years later. Results Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age was significantly correlated with change of weight from 5 to 10 years (ΔWeight). Children in the lowest insulin quartile had ΔWeight of 13.08±0.73 kg compare to 18.39±0.86 in the highest insulin quartile (P<0.0001) in boys, and similarly 12.03±0.71 vs 15.80±0.60 kg (P<0.0001) in girls. Multivariate analysis showed that the predictive effect of insulin at 5 years of age on subsequent weight gain over 5 years remained statistically significant even after the adjustment for age, sex, birth weight, TV-viewing time and weight (or body mass index) at baseline. By contrast, the initial weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent changes in insulin level 5 years later. Children who had both higher fasting insulin and weight at 5 years of age showed much higher levels of systolic blood pressures, fasting plasma glucose, the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and triglycerides at 10 years of age. Conclusions Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age predicts weight gain and cardiovascular risk factors 5 year later in Chinese children of early childhood, but the absolute weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent change in fasting insulin. PMID:26047327

Fasting Plasma Insulin at 5 Years of Age Predicted Subsequent Weight Increase in Early Childhood over a 5-Year Period-The Da Qing Children Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Yan Chen

Full Text Available The association between hyperinsulinemia and obesity is well known. However, it is uncertain especially in childhood obesity, if initial fasting hyperinsulinemia predicts obesity, or obesity leads to hyperinsulinemia through insulin resistance.To investigate the predictive effect of fasting plasma insulin on subsequent weight change after a 5-year interval in childhood.424 Children from Da Qing city, China, were recruited at 5 years of age and followed up for 5 years. Blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, fasting plasma insulin, glucose and triglycerides were measured at baseline and 5 years later.Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age was significantly correlated with change of weight from 5 to 10 years (ΔWeight. Children in the lowest insulin quartile had ΔWeight of 13.08±0.73 kg compare to 18.39±0.86 in the highest insulin quartile (P<0.0001 in boys, and similarly 12.03±0.71 vs 15.80±0.60 kg (P<0.0001 in girls. Multivariate analysis showed that the predictive effect of insulin at 5 years of age on subsequent weight gain over 5 years remained statistically significant even after the adjustment for age, sex, birth weight, TV-viewing time and weight (or body mass index at baseline. By contrast, the initial weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent changes in insulin level 5 years later. Children who had both higher fasting insulin and weight at 5 years of age showed much higher levels of systolic blood pressures, fasting plasma glucose, the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR and triglycerides at 10 years of age.Fasting plasma insulin at 5 years of age predicts weight gain and cardiovascular risk factors 5 year later in Chinese children of early childhood, but the absolute weight at 5 years of age did not predict subsequent change in fasting insulin.

Assimilation of satellite data to increase the reliability of the wave predictions in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

2015-04-01

In order to improve the wave predictions provided in the Black Sea by a wave modelling system based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) spectral model, a technique for assimilating the satellite data has been implemented and evaluated. For this purpose, an approach based on the Optimal Interpolation method has been considered and its results are discussed in the present work. As a first step, SWAN model simulations have been carried out for a 5-year interval (2004-2008). The assimilation is made in terms of the significant wave height (Hs) for each 24 hours considering data coming from 4 satellites (ERS-2, JASON-1, JASON-2, GEOSAT Follow-On). Subsequently, data provided by two other satellites (ENVISAT and TOPEX) are used for validations. To assess the improvement brought in the model predictions by the assimilation scheme, a comparison has been performed between the model results with and without assimilation. The statistical parameters evaluated are: bias, mean absolute error, RMS error, scatter index, correlation coefficient and symmetric slope. The results show that the data assimilation procedure induces a significant improvement of the statistical parameters (lower values for bias, errors and scatter index and values closer to the unity of the correlation coefficient and for the symmetric slope). It was found also that an important factor in improving the wave predictions is represented by the value of the correlation length accounted for the Hs prediction errors (Lmax). Previous studies indicate for this length a value around four degrees in the vicinity of 45 degrees latitude (which corresponds also to the basin of the Black Sea). This value was first considered in the assimilation technique. On the other hand, taking also into account the fact that in the Black Sea the wind-sea waves are dominant, lower values for the parameter Lmax were tested as well and it seems that the most appropriate value for this parameter is between three and four degrees

Feedback on Facebook Fails to Predict the User’s Subsequent Posting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherwin E. Balbuena

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Facebook use is a new and complex social behavior that has stimulated research interests in psychology. Due to a distinct lack of theoretical basis for this new communication phenomenon, a number of studies established the significant association between personality traits and Facebook use. This study investigated the motivational effect of friends’ feedback on the user’s subsequent Facebook posting and examined the correspondence between the user’s perceived motivation and actual motivation-behavior outcome using a new method. Results showed no significant association between the number of feedback and the number of subsequent posts, users’ perceived motivations were consistent with their actual motivation-behavior outcomes, users’ self-reports validated the new results and confirmed the previous findings that Facebook use is aimed at satisfying the individual’s needs for belongingness, self-presentation, and social information-seeking. It is suggested that the amount of feedback on Facebook is an ineffective determinant of the users’ frequency of subsequent postings.

Using personality item characteristics to predict single-item reliability, retest reliability, and self-other agreement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Reinout Everhard; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri

2016-01-01

The use of reliability estimates is increasingly scrutinized as scholars become more aware that test–retest stability and self–other agreement provide a better approximation of the theoretical and practical usefulness of an instrument than its internal reliability. In this study, we investigate item

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

Predicting Persuasion-Induced Behavior Change from the Brain

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Although persuasive messages often alter people’s self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p < 0.05). Additionally, an iterative cross-validation approach using activity in this MPFC ROI predicted an average 23% of the variance in behavior change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance. PMID:20573889

Reliability versus reproducibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautzenheiser, C.E.

1976-01-01

Defect detection and reproducibility of results are two separate but closely related subjects. It is axiomatic that a defect must be detected from examination to examination or reproducibility of results is very poor. On the other hand, a defect can be detected on each of subsequent examinations for higher reliability and still have poor reproducibility of results

Predicting interatrial septum rotation: is the position of the heart or the direction of the coronary sinus reliable?: Implications for interventional electrophysiologists from CT studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Huan; Wang, Yanjing; Zhang, Zhenming; Liu, Lin; Yang, Ping

2015-04-01

Determining the location of the interatrial septum (IAS) is crucial for cardiac electrophysiology procedures. Empirical methods of predicting IAS orientation depend on anatomical landmarks, including determining it from the direction of the coronary sinus (CS) and the position of the heart (e.g., vertical or transverse). However, the reliability of these methods for predicting IAS rotation warrants further study. The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of the relationship between IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position. Data from 115 patients undergoing coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography with no evidence of cardiac structural disease were collected and analyzed. Angulations describing IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were measured. The relationships between IAS orientation and each of the other two parameters were subsequently analyzed. The mean angulations for IAS orientation, CS direction, and heart position were 36.8 ± 7.3° (range 19.1-53.6), 37.7 ± 6.6° (range 21.3-50.1), and 37.1 ± 8.3° (range 19.2-61.0), respectively. We found a significant correlation between IAS orientation and CS direction (r = 0.928; P IAS orientation = 2.01 + 1.03 × CS direction (r(2) = 0.86). No correlation was observed between IAS orientation and heart position (P = 0.86). In patients without structural heart disease, CS direction may be a reliable predictor of IAS orientation, and may serve as a helpful reference for clinicians during invasive electrophysiological procedures. Further study is warranted to clarify the relationship between IAS orientation and heart position. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

System reliability of concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leira, B.J.; Thöns, Sebastian

2017-01-01

attack on the entire bridge, a system model with 90 components is next introduced. This model is employed in order to perform reliability updating based on observations at a number of sites along the bridge. An Enhanced Monte Carlo simulation method (EMC) is applied for this purpose. It is shown...... that application of this simulation method reduces computation times significantly as compared to crude Monte Carlo methods....... are obtained based on measurements from the Gimsøystraumen bridge in Norway. These probability distributions are subsequently employed as input to a prediction model for chloride concentration at the steel reinforcement for a single but arbitrary position along the reinforcement. In order to address chloride...

Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

Engineering Design Handbook: Development Guide for Reliability. Part Three. Reliability Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

1976-01-01

to t is pa(t)=l-qa(t) (10-6) This is the reliability of being closed, defined for this interval. 2 The probability that a contact viH be open...Monte Carlo simulation. Few people can know all about all available programs. Special- ists can assist in selecting a few from the avail- able many

A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guru Prasad PANDIAN

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

Auditory color constancy: calibration to reliable spectral properties across nonspeech context and targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Stilp, Christian E; Alexander, Joshua M; Kiefte, Michael; Kluender, Keith R

2010-02-01

Brief experience with reliable spectral characteristics of a listening context can markedly alter perception of subsequent speech sounds, and parallels have been drawn between auditory compensation for listening context and visual color constancy. In order to better evaluate such an analogy, the generality of acoustic context effects for sounds with spectral-temporal compositions distinct from speech was investigated. Listeners identified nonspeech sounds-extensively edited samples produced by a French horn and a tenor saxophone-following either resynthesized speech or a short passage of music. Preceding contexts were "colored" by spectral envelope difference filters, which were created to emphasize differences between French horn and saxophone spectra. Listeners were more likely to report hearing a saxophone when the stimulus followed a context filtered to emphasize spectral characteristics of the French horn, and vice versa. Despite clear changes in apparent acoustic source, the auditory system calibrated to relatively predictable spectral characteristics of filtered context, differentially affecting perception of subsequent target nonspeech sounds. This calibration to listening context and relative indifference to acoustic sources operates much like visual color constancy, for which reliable properties of the spectrum of illumination are factored out of perception of color.

Challenges Regarding IP Core Functional Reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, Melanie D.; LaBel, Kenneth A.

2017-01-01

For many years, intellectual property (IP) cores have been incorporated into field programmable gate array (FPGA) and application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) design flows. However, the usage of large complex IP cores were limited within products that required a high level of reliability. This is no longer the case. IP core insertion has become mainstream including their use in highly reliable products. Due to limited visibility and control, challenges exist when using IP cores and subsequently compromise product reliability. We discuss challenges and suggest potential solutions to critical application IP insertion.

PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

On the reliability of predictions of geomechanical response - project Cosa in perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knowles, N.C.; Lowe, M.J.S.; Come, B.

1990-01-01

Project COSA (Comparison of computer codes for Salt) was set up by the CEC as international benchmark exercise to compare the reliability of predictions of thermo-mechanical response of HLW repositories in salt. The first phase (COSA I) was conducted between 1984-1986 and attention was directed at code verification issues. The second phase (COSA II), carried out in the period 1986-1988, addressed code validation and other issues. Specifically, a series of experimental heat and pressure tests carried out at the Asse Mine in Wast Germany were modelled and predictions of the thermo-mechanical behaviour were compared. Ten European organisations participated. A key feature of this exercise was that, as far as possible, the calculations were performed blind (i.e. without any knowledge of the observed behaviour) using the best information available a priori, to describe the physical situation to be modelled. Interest centred around the various constitutive models (of material behaviour) for rock-salt and the assumptions about the in situ state of stress. The paper gives an overview of the project, presents some broad conclusions and attempts to assess their significance. 17 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Idea density measured in late life predicts subsequent cognitive trajectories: implications for the measurement of cognitive reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski; Chand, Vineeta; Bonnici, Lisa; Baynes, Kathleen; Harvey, Danielle; Mungas, Dan; Simon, Christa; Reed, Bruce

2012-11-01

The Nun Study showed that lower linguistic ability in young adulthood, measured by idea density (ID), increased the risk of dementia in late life. The present study examined whether ID measured in late life continues to predict the trajectory of cognitive change. ID was measured in 81 older adults who were followed longitudinally for an average of 4.3 years. Changes in global cognition and 4 specific neuropsychological domains (episodic memory, semantic memory, spatial abilities, and executive function) were examined as outcomes. Separate random effects models tested the effect of ID on longitudinal change in outcomes, adjusted for age and education. Lower ID was associated with greater subsequent decline in global cognition, semantic memory, episodic memory, and spatial abilities. When analysis was restricted to only participants without dementia at the time ID was collected, results were similar. Linguistic ability in young adulthood, as measured by ID, has been previously proposed as an index of neurocognitive development and/or cognitive reserve. The present study provides evidence that even when ID is measured in old age, it continues to be associated with subsequent cognitive decline and as such may continue to provide a marker of cognitive reserve.

Prefrontal recruitment during social rejection predicts greater subsequent self-regulatory imbalance and impairment: neural and longitudinal evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chester, David S; DeWall, C Nathan

2014-11-01

Social rejection impairs self-regulation, yet the neural mechanisms underlying this relationship remain unknown. The right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (rVLPFC) facilitates self-regulation and plays a robust role in regulating the distress of social rejection. However, recruiting this region's inhibitory function during social rejection may come at a self-regulatory cost. As supported by prominent theories of self-regulation, we hypothesized that greater rVLPFC recruitment during rejection would predict a subsequent self-regulatory imbalance that favored reflexive impulses (i.e., cravings), which would then impair self-regulation. Supporting our hypotheses, rVLPFC activation during social rejection was associated with greater subsequent nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activation and lesser functional connectivity between the NAcc and rVLPFC to appetitive cues. Over seven days, the effect of daily felt rejection on daily self-regulatory impairment was exacerbated among participants who showed a stronger rVLPFC response to social rejection. This interactive effect was mirrored in the effect of daily felt rejection on heightened daily alcohol cravings. Our findings suggest that social rejection likely impairs self-regulation by recruiting the rVLPFC, which then tips the regulatory balance towards reward-based impulses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Acoustic Charge Transport Imager for High Definition Television Applications: Reliability Modeling and Parametric Yield Prediction of GaAs Multiple Quantum Well Avalanche Photodiodes. Degree awarded Oct. 1997

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, W. D.; Brennan, K. F.; Summers, C. J.; Yun, Ilgu

1994-01-01

Reliability modeling and parametric yield prediction of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiodes (APDs), which are of interest as an ultra-low noise image capture mechanism for high definition systems, have been investigated. First, the effect of various doping methods on the reliability of GaAs/AlGaAs multiple quantum well (MQW) avalanche photodiode (APD) structures fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated. Reliability is examined by accelerated life tests by monitoring dark current and breakdown voltage. Median device lifetime and the activation energy of the degradation mechanism are computed for undoped, doped-barrier, and doped-well APD structures. Lifetimes for each device structure are examined via a statistically designed experiment. Analysis of variance shows that dark-current is affected primarily by device diameter, temperature and stressing time, and breakdown voltage depends on the diameter, stressing time and APD type. It is concluded that the undoped APD has the highest reliability, followed by the doped well and doped barrier devices, respectively. To determine the source of the degradation mechanism for each device structure, failure analysis using the electron-beam induced current method is performed. This analysis reveals some degree of device degradation caused by ionic impurities in the passivation layer, and energy-dispersive spectrometry subsequently verified the presence of ionic sodium as the primary contaminant. However, since all device structures are similarly passivated, sodium contamination alone does not account for the observed variation between the differently doped APDs. This effect is explained by the dopant migration during stressing, which is verified by free carrier concentration measurements using the capacitance-voltage technique.

Early follow-up data from seizure diaries can be used to predict subsequent seizures in same cohort by borrowing strength across participants

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Charles B.; Lipton, Richard B.; Tennen, Howard; Haut, Sheryl R.

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of seizures in persons with epilepsy offers opportunities for both precautionary measures and preemptive treatment. Previously identified predictors of seizures include patient-reported seizure anticipation, as well as stress, anxiety, and decreased sleep. In this study, we developed three models using 30 days of nightly seizure diary data in a cohort of 71 individuals with a history of uncontrolled seizures to predict subsequent seizures in the same cohort over a 30-day follow-up period. The best model combined the individual’s seizure history with that of the remainder of the cohort, resulting in 72% sensitivity for 80% specificity, and 0.83 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The possibility of clinically relevant prediction should be examined through electronic data capture and more specific and more frequent sampling, and with patient training to improve prediction. PMID:19138755

Nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

1981-01-01

Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

Human reliability in complex systems: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.

1976-07-01

A detailed analysis is presented of the main conceptual background underlying the areas of human reliability and human error. The concept of error is examined and generalized to that of human reliability, and some of the practical and methodological difficulties of reconciling the different standpoints of the human factors specialist and the engineer discussed. Following a survey of general reviews available on human reliability, quantitative techniques for prediction of human reliability are considered. An in-depth critical analysis of the various quantitative methods is then presented, together with the data bank requirements for human reliability prediction. Reliability considerations in process control and nuclear plant, and also areas of design, maintenance, testing and emergency situations are discussed. The effects of stress on human reliability are analysed and methods of minimizing these effects discussed. Finally, a summary is presented and proposals for further research are set out. (author)

Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

Science.gov (United States)

Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

2015-09-01

To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear: Reliability of MR Imaging to Predict Stability after Conservative Treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Hye Won; Ahn, Jin Hwan; Ahn, Joong Mo; Yoon, Young Cheol; Hong, Hyun Pyo; Yoo, So Young; Kim, Seon Woo [Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2007-06-15

The aim of this study is to evaluate the reliability of MR imaging to predict the stability of the torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after complete recovery of the ligament's continuity. Twenty patients with 20 knee injuries (13 males and 7 females; age range, 20 54) were enrolled in the study. The inclusion criteria were a positive history of acute trauma, diagnosis of the ACL tear by both the physical examination and the MR imaging at the initial presentation, conservative treatment, complete recovery of the continuity of the ligament on the follow up (FU) MR images and availability of the KT-2000 measurements. Two radiologists, who worked in consensus, graded the MR findings with using a 3-point system for the signal intensity, sharpness, straightness and the thickness of the healed ligament. The insufficiency of ACL was categorized into three groups according to the KT-2000 measurements. The statistic correlations between the grades of the MR findings and the degrees of ACL insufficiency were analyzed using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test (p < 0.05). The p-values for each category of the MR findings according to the different groups of the KT-2000 measurements were 0.9180 for the MR signal intensity, 1.0000 for sharpness, 0.5038 for straightness and 0.2950 for thickness of the ACL. The MR findings were not significantly different between the different KT-2000 groups. MR imaging itself is not a reliable examination to predict stability of the ACL rupture outcome, even when the MR images show an intact appearance of the ACL.

On which term is the prediction of the behaviour of glass necessary and reliable?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, J.

1997-01-01

The author questions the ethics of the deep underground storage of high-level radioactive wastes. The time periods that are considered for the confinement are so long that it is completely impossible to predict the way of life of people at that time and the level of knowledge they will have reached. There is a total agreement about the ethics principle of not jeopardizing life and environment of future generations but the difficulty is to draw the limits of this protection. In the regulations of most countries 2 periods of time are defined: the first 500 years and 10.000 years. 500 years is the period of high heat releases due to the decay of most fission products and is also a reasonable time during which the confining site (structures and packages) stays accessible. 10.000 years is considered as the period of time during which predictions are reliable, beyond this time uncertainties become too important and more and more numerous. (A.C.)

Risk Factors at Birth Predictive of Subsequent Injury Among Japanese Preschool Children: A Nationwide 5-Year Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Morioka, Hisayoshi; Itani, Osamu; Jike, Maki; Nakagome, Sachi; Otsuka, Yuichiro; Ohida, Takashi

2018-03-19

To identify risk factors at birth that are predictive of subsequent injury among preschool children. Retrospective analysis of population-based birth cohort data from the "Longitudinal Survey of Babies Born in the 21st Century" was performed from 2001 through 2007 in Japan (n = 47,015). The cumulative incidence and the total number of hospitalizations or examinations conducted at medical facilities for injury among children from birth up to the age of 5 years were calculated. To identify risk factors at birth that are predictive of injury, multivariate analysis of data for hospitalization or admission because of injury during a 5-year period (age, 0-5 years) was performed using the total number of hospital examinations as the dependent variable. The cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of hospital examinations for injury over the 5-year period was 34.8% (34.2%-35.4%) for boys and 27.6% (27.0%-28.2%) for girls. The predictive risk factors at birth we identified for injury among preschool children were sex (boys), heavy birth weight, late birth order, no cohabitation with the grandfather or grandmother, father's long working hours, mother's high education level, and strong intensity of parenting anxiety. Based on the results of this study, we identified a number of predictive factors for injury in children. To reduce the risk of injury in the juvenile population as a whole, it is important to pursue a high-risk or population approach by focusing on the predictive factors we have identified.

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Reliability of construction materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merz, H.

1976-01-01

One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de

Identifying the Gene Signatures from Gene-Pathway Bipartite Network Guarantees the Robust Model Performance on Predicting the Cancer Prognosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li He

2014-01-01

Full Text Available For the purpose of improving the prediction of cancer prognosis in the clinical researches, various algorithms have been developed to construct the predictive models with the gene signatures detected by DNA microarrays. Due to the heterogeneity of the clinical samples, the list of differentially expressed genes (DEGs generated by the statistical methods or the machine learning algorithms often involves a number of false positive genes, which are not associated with the phenotypic differences between the compared clinical conditions, and subsequently impacts the reliability of the predictive models. In this study, we proposed a strategy, which combined the statistical algorithm with the gene-pathway bipartite networks, to generate the reliable lists of cancer-related DEGs and constructed the models by using support vector machine for predicting the prognosis of three types of cancers, namely, breast cancer, acute myeloma leukemia, and glioblastoma. Our results demonstrated that, combined with the gene-pathway bipartite networks, our proposed strategy can efficiently generate the reliable cancer-related DEG lists for constructing the predictive models. In addition, the model performance in the swap analysis was similar to that in the original analysis, indicating the robustness of the models in predicting the cancer outcomes.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

1983-01-01

The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development

Structural Reliability Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen Ringi, M

1995-05-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen Ringi, M.

1995-01-01

The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Wei Hsieh

2014-04-01

Full Text Available We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG, and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76. Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA and Medical Research Council (MRC scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p < 0.05. After rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34 and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p < 0.05. Baseline 8-OHdG was significantly correlated with post-treatment FMA, MRC, and pain scores (r = −0.34, −0.31, and 0.25; p < 0.05, indicating its ability to predict functional outcomes. 8-OHdG levels were significantly decreased, and functional outcomes were improved after rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research.

Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Ashwin

2001-01-01

Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

Notes on human factors problems in process plant reliability and safety prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, J.; Taylor, J.R.

1976-09-01

The basis for plant operator reliability evaluation is described. Principles for plant design, necessary to permit reliability evaluation, are outlined. Five approaches to the plant operator reliability problem are described. Case stories, illustrating operator reliability problems, are given. (author)

Improvement of plant reliability in PT. Badak LNG plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Achmad, S.; Somantri, A.

1997-01-01

PT. Badak's LNG sales commitment has been steadily increasing, therefore, there has been more emphasis to improve and maintain the LNG plant reliability. From plant operation historical records, Badak LNG plant experienced a high number of LNG process train trips and down time for 1977 through 1988. The highest annual number of LNG plant trips (50 times) occurred in 1983 and the longest LNG process train down time (1259 train-hours) occurred in 1988. Since 1989, PT. Badak has been able to reduce the number of LNG process train trips and down time significantly. In 1994 the number of LNG process train trips and was 18 times and the longest LNG process train down time was 377 train-hours. This plant reliability improvement was achieved by implementing plant reliability improvement programs beginning with the design of the new facilities and continuing with the maintenance and modification of the existing facilities. To improve reliability of the existing facilities, PT. Badak has been implementing comprehensive maintenance programs, to reduce the frequency and down time of the plant, such as Preventive and Predictive Maintenance as well as procurement material improvement since PT. Badak location is in a remote area. By implementing the comprehensive reliability maintenance, PT. Badak has been able to reduce the LNG process train trips to 18 and down time to 337 train hours in 1994 with the subsequent maintenance cost reduction. The average PT. Badak plant availability from 1985 to 1995 is 94.59%. New facilities were designed according to the established PT. Badak design philosophy, master plan and specification. Design of new facilities was modified to avoid certain problems from past experience. (au)

Reliability of electronic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roca, Jose L.

2001-01-01

Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

Use of reliability engineering in development and manufacturing of metal parts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, A.; Iqbal, M.A.; Asif, M.

2005-01-01

The reliability engineering predicts modes of failures and weak links before the system is built instead of failure case study. The reliability engineering analysis will help in the manufacturing economy, assembly accuracy and qualification by testing, leading to production of metal parts in an aerospace industry. This methodology will also minimize the performance constraints in any requirement for the application of metal components in aerospace systems. The reliability engineering predicts the life of the parts under loading conditions whether dynamic or static. Reliability predictions can help engineers in making decisions about design of components, materials selection and qualification under applied stress levels. Two methods of reliability prediction i.e. Part Stress Analysis and Part Count have been used in this study. In this paper we will discuss how these two methods can be used to measure reliability of a system during development phases, which includes the measuring effect of environmental and operational variables. The equations are used to measure the reliability of each type of component, as well as, integration for measuring system applied for the reliability analysis. (author)

Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmati, Mehdi

2017-08-01

Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed

Digital Processor Module Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Jae Ho; Kim, Sung Hun

2005-01-01

The system used in plant, military equipment, satellite, etc. consists of many electronic parts as control module, which requires relatively high reliability than other commercial electronic products. Specially, Nuclear power plant related to the radiation safety requires high safety and reliability, so most parts apply to Military-Standard level. Reliability prediction method provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. Thus various reliability prediction tools have been developed in recent decades, among of them, the MI-HDBK-217 method has been widely used as a powerful tool for the prediction. In this work, It is explained that reliability analysis work for Digital Processor Module (DPM, control module of SMART) is performed by Parts Stress Method based on MIL-HDBK-217F NOTICE2. We are using the Relex 7.6 of Relex software corporation, because reliability analysis process requires enormous part libraries and data for failure rate calculation

A pediatric FOUR score coma scale: interrater reliability and predictive validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Czaikowski, Brianna L; Liang, Hong; Stewart, C Todd

2014-04-01

The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a coma scale that consists of four components (eye and motor response, brainstem reflexes, and respiration). It was originally validated among the adult population and recently in a pediatric population. To enhance clinical assessment of pediatric intensive care unit patients, including those intubated and/or sedated, at our children's hospital, we modified the FOUR Score Scale for this population. This modified scale would provide many of the same advantages as the original, such as interrater reliability, simplicity, and elimination of the verbal component that is not compatible with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), creating a more valuable neurological assessment tool for the nursing community. Our goal was to potentially provide greater information than the formally used GCS when assessing critically ill, neurologically impaired patients, including those sedated and/or intubated. Experienced pediatric intensive care unit nurses were trained as "expert raters." Two different nurses assessed each subject using the Pediatric FOUR Score Scale (PFSS), GCS, and Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale at three different time points. Data were compared with the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (PCPC) assessed by another nurse. Our hypothesis was that the PFSS and PCPC should highly correlate and the GCS and PCPC should correlate lower. Study results show that the PFSS is excellent for interrater reliability for trained nurse-rater pairs and prediction of poor outcome and in-hospital mortality, under various situations, but there were no statistically significant differences between the PFSS and the GCS. However, the PFSS does have the potential to provide greater neurological assessment in the intubated and/or sedated patient based on the outcomes of our study.

Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

Science.gov (United States)

More, Sushant N.

New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

Reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Kay E

2012-03-01

This article contributes to the debate about the use of reliability assessments in qualitative research in general, and health promotion research in particular. In this article, I examine the use of reliability assessments in qualitative health promotion research in response to health promotion researchers' commonly held misconception that reliability assessments improve the rigor of qualitative research. All qualitative articles published in the journal Health Promotion International from 2003 to 2009 employing reliability assessments were examined. In total, 31.3% (20/64) articles employed some form of reliability assessment. The use of reliability assessments increased over the study period, ranging from qualitative articles decreased. The articles were then classified into four types of reliability assessments, including the verification of thematic codes, the use of inter-rater reliability statistics, congruence in team coding and congruence in coding across sites. The merits of each type were discussed, with the subsequent discussion focusing on the deductive nature of reliable thematic coding, the limited depth of immediately verifiable data and the usefulness of such studies to health promotion and the advancement of the qualitative paradigm.

The nuclear power plant maintenance personnel reliability prediction (NPP/MPRP) effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.

1982-01-01

Human errors committed during maintenance activities are potentially a major contribution to the overall risk associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). An NRC-sponsored program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is attempting to develop a quantitative predictive technique to evaluate the contribution of maintenance errors to the overall NPP risk. The current work includes a survey of the requirements of potential users to ascertain the need for and content of the proposed quantitative model, plus an initial job/task analysis to determine the scope and applicability of various maintenance tasks. In addition, existing human reliability prediction models are being reviewed and assessed with respect to their applicability to NPP maintenance tasks. This paper discusses the status of the program and summarizes the results to date

Brain Activation during Associative Short-Term Memory Maintenance is Not Predictive for Subsequent Retrieval

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heiko eBergmann

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Performance on working memory (WM tasks may partially be supported by long-term memory (LTM processing. Hence, brain activation recently being implicated in WM may actually have been driven by (incidental LTM formation. We examined which brain regions actually support successful WM processing, rather than being confounded by LTM processes, during the maintenance and probe phase of a WM task. We administered a four-pair (faces and houses associative delayed-match-to-sample (WM task using event-related fMRI and a subsequent associative recognition LTM task, using the same stimuli. This enabled us to analyze subsequent memory effects for both the WM and the LTM test by contrasting correctly recognized pairs with incorrect pairs for either task. Critically, with respect to the subsequent WM effect, we computed this analysis exclusively for trials that were forgotten in the subsequent LTM recognition task. Hence, brain activity associated with successful WM processing was less likely to be confounded by incidental LTM formation. The subsequent LTM effect, in contrast, was analyzed exclusively for pairs that previously had been correctly recognized in the WM task, disclosing brain regions involved in successful LTM formation after successful WM processing. Results for the subsequent WM effect showed no significantly activated brain areas for WM maintenance, possibly due to an insensitivity of fMRI to mechanisms underlying active WM maintenance. In contrast, a correct decision at WM probe was linked to activation in the retrieval success network (anterior and posterior midline brain structures. The subsequent LTM analyses revealed greater activation in left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex in the early phase of the maintenance stage. No supra-threshold activation was found during the WM probe. Together, we obtained clearer insights in which brain regions support successful WM and LTM without the potential confound of the

Brain activation during associative short-term memory maintenance is not predictive for subsequent retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergmann, Heiko C; Daselaar, Sander M; Beul, Sarah F; Rijpkema, Mark; Fernández, Guillén; Kessels, Roy P C

2015-01-01

Performance on working memory (WM) tasks may partially be supported by long-term memory (LTM) processing. Hence, brain activation recently being implicated in WM may actually have been driven by (incidental) LTM formation. We examined which brain regions actually support successful WM processing, rather than being confounded by LTM processes, during the maintenance and probe phase of a WM task. We administered a four-pair (faces and houses) associative delayed-match-to-sample (WM) task using event-related functional MRI (fMRI) and a subsequent associative recognition LTM task, using the same stimuli. This enabled us to analyze subsequent memory effects for both the WM and the LTM test by contrasting correctly recognized pairs with incorrect pairs for either task. Critically, with respect to the subsequent WM effect, we computed this analysis exclusively for trials that were forgotten in the subsequent LTM recognition task. Hence, brain activity associated with successful WM processing was less likely to be confounded by incidental LTM formation. The subsequent LTM effect, in contrast, was analyzed exclusively for pairs that previously had been correctly recognized in the WM task, disclosing brain regions involved in successful LTM formation after successful WM processing. Results for the subsequent WM effect showed no significantly activated brain areas for WM maintenance, possibly due to an insensitivity of fMRI to mechanisms underlying active WM maintenance. In contrast, a correct decision at WM probe was linked to activation in the "retrieval success network" (anterior and posterior midline brain structures). The subsequent LTM analyses revealed greater activation in left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex in the early phase of the maintenance stage. No supra-threshold activation was found during the WM probe. Together, we obtained clearer insights in which brain regions support successful WM and LTM without the potential confound of

Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

CERN Document Server

El Hami, Abdelkhalak

2015-01-01

In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

LSD-induced entropic brain activity predicts subsequent personality change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebedev, A V; Kaelen, M; Lövdén, M; Nilsson, J; Feilding, A; Nutt, D J; Carhart-Harris, R L

2016-09-01

Personality is known to be relatively stable throughout adulthood. Nevertheless, it has been shown that major life events with high personal significance, including experiences engendered by psychedelic drugs, can have an enduring impact on some core facets of personality. In the present, balanced-order, placebo-controlled study, we investigated biological predictors of post-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) changes in personality. Nineteen healthy adults underwent resting state functional MRI scans under LSD (75µg, I.V.) and placebo (saline I.V.). The Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) was completed at screening and 2 weeks after LSD/placebo. Scanning sessions consisted of three 7.5-min eyes-closed resting-state scans, one of which involved music listening. A standardized preprocessing pipeline was used to extract measures of sample entropy, which characterizes the predictability of an fMRI time-series. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate drug-induced shifts in brain entropy and their relationship with the observed increases in the personality trait openness at the 2-week follow-up. Overall, LSD had a pronounced global effect on brain entropy, increasing it in both sensory and hierarchically higher networks across multiple time scales. These shifts predicted enduring increases in trait openness. Moreover, the predictive power of the entropy increases was greatest for the music-listening scans and when "ego-dissolution" was reported during the acute experience. These results shed new light on how LSD-induced shifts in brain dynamics and concomitant subjective experience can be predictive of lasting changes in personality. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3203-3213, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of an automated double-synthesis module: efficiency and reliability of subsequent radiosyntheses of FHBG and FLT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niedermoser, Sabrina; Pape, Manuela; Gildehaus, Franz Josef; Wängler, Carmen; Hartenbach, Markus; Schirrmacher, Ralf; Bartenstein, Peter; Wängler, Björn

2012-01-01

We optimized the synthesis methods for 3′-deoxy-3′-[ 18 F]fluorothymidine ([ 18 F]FLT) and 9-(4-[ 18 F]fluoro-3-[hydroxymethyl]butyl)guanine) ([ 18 F]FHBG) and automated them on an Explora General Nucleophilic double-synthesis module. Furthermore, the synthesis efficiency and reliability and the formation of cross-contaminations of the products when preparing two consecutive batches were evaluated. Whereas the preinstalled FLT synthesis conditions required substantial modification in reaction and neutralization conditions to achieve radiochemical yields of up to 60% within 70±10 min including high-performance liquid chromatography purification, the synthesis of FHBG had to be implemented to the module to obtain competitive radiochemical yields of up to 40% in an overall synthesis time of 60±10 min. The radiochemical purities obtained were ≥99% and ≥96% for the synthesis of [ 18 F]FLT and [ 18 F]FHBG, respectively. No significant changes in yield or purity could be observed between both batch productions. We found that the yields and purities also did not change when performing FLT after FHBG syntheses and vice versa. Hence, we developed a synthesis setup that offers the opportunity to perform two subsequent syntheses of either [ 18 F]FLT, [ 18 F]FHBG or [ 18 F]FLT after [ 18 F]FHBG without decrease in radiochemical yields and purities. Also, no cross-contaminations were observed, which can be attributed to the use of separate product delivery tubes, purification columns and an automated intermediate cleaning program. These results open up the possibility of producing consecutively either two equal 18 F-fluorinated tracers or two different ones in high yields on the same synthesis module.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

2006-12-01

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

Reliability Analysis on NPP's Safety-Related Control Module with Field Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong; Jung, Jae Hyun; Kim, Seong Hun

2006-01-01

The automatic control systems used in nuclear power plant (NPP) consists of numerous control modules that can be considered to be a network of components various complex ways. The control modules require relatively high reliability than industrial electronic products. Reliability prediction provides the rational basis of system designs and also provides the safety significance of system operations. The aim of this paper is to minimize the deficiencies of the traditional reliability prediction method calculation using the available field return data. This way is possible to do more realistic reliability assessment. SAMCHANG Enterprise Company (SEC) has established database containing high quality data at the module and component level from module maintenance in NPP. On the basis of these, this paper compares results that add failure record (field data) to Telcordia-SR-332 reliability prediction model with MIL-HDBK-217F prediction results

Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

2016-11-01

In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

2015-12-01

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

2014-01-01

Selective laser melting is developing into a standard manufacturing technology with applications in various sectors. However, the process is still far from being at par with conventional processes such as welding and casting, the primary reason of which is the unreliability of the process. While...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...... parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....

External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the Modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status After Retrograde Intrarenal Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juhyun; Kang, Minyong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Oh, Sohee; Lee, Jeong Woo; Lee, Seung Bae; Son, Hwancheol; Jeong, Hyeon; Cho, Sung Yong

2015-08-01

The modified Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity scoring system (S-ReSC-R) for retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS) was developed as a tool to predict stone-free rate (SFR) after RIRS. We externally validated the S-ReSC-R. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients who underwent RIRS. The S-ReSC-R was assigned from 1 to 12 according to the location and number of sites involved. The stone-free status was defined as no evidence of a stone or with clinically insignificant residual fragment stones less than 2 mm. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. Statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Overall SFR was 73.0%. The SFRs were 86.7%, 70.2%, and 48.6% in low-score (1-2), intermediate-score (3-4), and high-score (5-12) groups, respectively (pR revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.731 (95% CI 0.650-0.813). The AUC of the three-titered S-ReSC-R was 0.701 (95% CI 0.609-0.794). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of observed frequency. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test revealed a p-value of 0.01 for the S-ReSC-R and 0.90 for the three-titered S-ReSC-R. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities revealed an almost perfect level of agreement. The present study proved the predictive value of S-ReSC-R to predict SFR following RIRS in an independent cohort. Interobserver and test-retest reliabilities confirmed that S-ReSC-R was reliable and valid.

Interactive Reliability-Based Optimization of Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Claus

In order to introduce the basic concepts within the field of reliability-based structural optimization problems, this chapter is devoted to a brief outline of the basic theories. Therefore, this chapter is of a more formal nature and used as a basis for the remaining parts of the thesis. In section...... 2.2 a general non-linear optimization problem and corresponding terminology are presented whereupon optimality conditions and the standard form of an iterative optimization algorithm are outlined. Subsequently, the special properties and characteristics concerning structural optimization problems...... are treated in section 2.3. With respect to the reliability evalutation, the basic theory behind a reliability analysis and estimation of probability of failure by the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) and the iterative Rackwitz-Fiessler (RF) algorithm are considered in section 2.5 in which...

New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

2016-01-01

of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

Do psychopathic traits assessed in mid-adolescence predict mental health, psychosocial, and antisocial, including criminal outcomes, over the subsequent 5 years?

Science.gov (United States)

Hemphälä, Malin; Hodgins, Sheilagh

2014-01-01

To determine whether psychopathic traits assessed in mid-adolescence predicted mental health, psychosocial, and antisocial (including criminal) outcomes 5 years later and would thereby provide advantages over diagnosing conduct disorder (CD). Eighty-six women and 61 men were assessed in mid-adolescence when they first contacted a clinic for substance misuse and were reassessed 5 years later. Assessments in adolescence include the Psychopathy Checklist-Youth Version (PCL-YV), and depending on their age, either the Kiddie-Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children or the Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (SCID). Assessments in early adulthood included the SCID, self-reports of psychosocial functioning, aggressive behaviour, and criminality and official criminal records. The antisocial facet score positively predicted the number of anxiety symptoms and likelihood of receiving treatment for substance use disorders (SUDs). Lifestyle and antisocial facet scores negatively predicted Global Assessment of Functioning scores. By contrast, the interpersonal score and male sex independently and positively predicted the number of months worked or studied, as did the interaction of Lifestyle × Sex indicating that among men, but not women, an increase in lifestyle facet score was associated with less time worked or studied. Interpersonal and antisocial scores positively predicted school drop-out. Antisocial facet scores predicted the number of symptoms of antisocial personality disorder, alcohol and SUDs, and violent and nonviolent criminality but much more strongly among males than females. Predictions from numbers of CD symptoms were similar. Psychopathic traits among adolescents who misuse substances predict an array of outcomes over the subsequent 5 years. Information on the levels of these traits may be useful for planning treatment.

Outpatient Pain Predicts Subsequent One-Year Acute Health Care Utilization Among Adults With Sickle Cell Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Ezenwa, Miriam O.; Molokie, Robert E.; Wang, Zaijie Jim; Yao, Yingwei; Suarez, Marie L.; Angulo, Veronica; Wilkie, Diana J.

2014-01-01

Context Patient demographic and clinical factors have known associations with acute health care utilization (AHCU) among patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), but it is unknown if pain measured predominantly in an outpatient setting is a predictor of future AHCU in patients with SCD. Objectives To determine whether multidimensional pain scores obtained predominantly in an outpatient setting predicted subsequent one-year AHCU by 137 adults with SCD and whether the pain measured at a second visit also predicted AHCU. Methods Pain data included the Composite Pain Index (CPI), a single score representative of a multidimensional pain experience (number of pain sites, intensity, quality, and pattern). Based on the distribution of AHCU events, we divided patients into three groups: (1) zero events (Zero), (2) 1–3 events (Low), or (3) 4–23 events (High). Results The initial CPI scores differed significantly by the three groups (F(2,134)=7.38, P=0.001). Post hoc comparisons showed that the Zero group had lower CPI scores than both the Low group (Pgroup (Page, and CPI scores (at both measurement times) were statistically significant predictors of utilization events. Pain intensity scores at both measurement times were significant predictors of utilization, but other pain scores (number of pain sites, quality, and pattern) were not. Conclusion Findings support use of outpatient CPI scores or pain intensity and age to identify at-risk young adults with SCD who are likely to benefit from improved outpatient pain management plans. PMID:24636960

Goal-directed mechanisms that constrain retrieval predict subsequent memory for new "foil" information.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogelsang, David A; Bonnici, Heidi M; Bergström, Zara M; Ranganath, Charan; Simons, Jon S

2016-08-01

To remember a previous event, it is often helpful to use goal-directed control processes to constrain what comes to mind during retrieval. Behavioral studies have demonstrated that incidental learning of new "foil" words in a recognition test is superior if the participant is trying to remember studied items that were semantically encoded compared to items that were non-semantically encoded. Here, we applied subsequent memory analysis to fMRI data to understand the neural mechanisms underlying the "foil effect". Participants encoded information during deep semantic and shallow non-semantic tasks and were tested in a subsequent blocked memory task to examine how orienting retrieval towards different types of information influences the incidental encoding of new words presented as foils during the memory test phase. To assess memory for foils, participants performed a further surprise old/new recognition test involving foil words that were encountered during the previous memory test blocks as well as completely new words. Subsequent memory effects, distinguishing successful versus unsuccessful incidental encoding of foils, were observed in regions that included the left inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex. The left inferior frontal gyrus exhibited disproportionately larger subsequent memory effects for semantic than non-semantic foils, and significant overlap in activity during semantic, but not non-semantic, initial encoding and foil encoding. The results suggest that orienting retrieval towards different types of foils involves re-implementing the neurocognitive processes that were involved during initial encoding. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Tracking reliability for space cabin-borne equipment in development by Crow model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J D; Jiao, S J; Sun, H L

2001-12-01

Objective. To study and track the reliability growth of manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment in the course of its development. Method. A new technique of reliability growth estimation and prediction, which is composed of the Crow model and test data conversion (TDC) method was used. Result. The estimation and prediction value of the reliability growth conformed to its expectations. Conclusion. The method could dynamically estimate and predict the reliability of the equipment by making full use of various test information in the course of its development. It offered not only a possibility of tracking the equipment reliability growth, but also the reference for quality control in manned spaceflight cabin-borne equipment design and development process.

General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

2016-05-01

The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Some areas of reliability technique which have been neglected to some extent - maintainability - human reliability - mechanical reliability - repairable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akersten, P.A.

1985-01-01

The present thesis consists of four papers, three of which are of a expositary nature and one more theoretical. The first two papers have a natural coupling to the man-machine interface. The first paper is devoted to the concept of maintainability and the role of man as maintenance technician. The second paper discusses aspects of human reliability, mainly studying man as operator. However, maintenance tasks can be studied in the same manner. The third paper concerns reliability prediction for mechanical components. This is an area of vital importance for the reliability practitioner, who needs realistic and easy-to-use mathematical models for different failure modes. The fourth paper discusses mathematical models for repairable systems, especially the problem of testing whether a constant event intensity model is adequate or not. (author)

The Reliability and Predictive Ability of a Biomarker of Oxidative DNA Damage on Functional Outcomes after Stroke Rehabilitation

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Keh-Chung; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Lee, Tsong-Hai; Wu, Ching-Yi; Wu, Kuen-Yuh

2014-01-01

We evaluated the reliability of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and determined its ability to predict functional outcomes in stroke survivors. The rehabilitation effect on 8-OHdG and functional outcomes were also assessed. Sixty-one stroke patients received a 4-week rehabilitation. Urinary 8-OHdG levels were determined by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The test-retest reliability of 8-OHdG was good (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.76). Upper-limb motor function and muscle power determined by the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) and Medical Research Council (MRC) scales before rehabilitation showed significant negative correlation with 8-OHdG (r = −0.38, r = −0.30; p rehabilitation, we found a fair and significant correlation between 8-OHdG and FMA (r = −0.34) and 8-OHdG and pain (r = 0.26, p rehabilitation. The exploratory study findings conclude that 8-OHdG is a reliable and promising biomarker of oxidative stress and could be a valid predictor of functional outcomes in patients. Monitoring of behavioral indicators along with biomarkers may have crucial benefits in translational stroke research. PMID:24743892

Assessing the reliability of predictive activity coefficient models for molecules consisting of several functional groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. P. Gerber

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Currently, the most successful predictive models for activity coefficients are those based on functional groups such as UNIFAC. In contrast, these models require a large amount of experimental data for the determination of their parameter matrix. A more recent alternative is the models based on COSMO, for which only a small set of universal parameters must be calibrated. In this work, a recalibrated COSMO-SAC model was compared with the UNIFAC (Do model employing experimental infinite dilution activity coefficient data for 2236 non-hydrogen-bonding binary mixtures at different temperatures. As expected, UNIFAC (Do presented better overall performance, with a mean absolute error of 0.12 ln-units against 0.22 for our COSMO-SAC implementation. However, in cases involving molecules with several functional groups or when functional groups appear in an unusual way, the deviation for UNIFAC was 0.44 as opposed to 0.20 for COSMO-SAC. These results show that COSMO-SAC provides more reliable predictions for multi-functional or more complex molecules, reaffirming its future prospects.

Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

2017-09-01

The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

Feedback on Facebook Fails to Predict the User’s Subsequent Posting

OpenAIRE

Sherwin E. Balbuena; Princess Z. Balbuena

2017-01-01

Facebook use is a new and complex social behavior that has stimulated research interests in psychology. Due to a distinct lack of theoretical basis for this new communication phenomenon, a number of studies established the significant association between personality traits and Facebook use. This study investigated the motivational effect of friends’ feedback on the user’s subsequent Facebook posting and examined the correspondence between the user’s perceived motivation and actual...

Reliability demonstration test planning: A three dimensional consideration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadav, Om Prakash; Singh, Nanua; Goel, Parveen S.

2006-01-01

Increasing customer demand for reliability, fierce market competition on time-to-market and cost, and highly reliable products are making reliability testing more challenging task. This paper presents a systematic approach for identifying critical elements (subsystems and components) of the system and deciding the types of test to be performed to demonstrate reliability. It decomposes the system into three dimensions (i.e. physical, functional and time) and identifies critical elements in the design by allocating system level reliability to each candidate. The decomposition of system level reliability is achieved by using criticality index. The numerical value of criticality index for each candidate is derived based on the information available from failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) document or warranty data from a prior system. It makes use of this information to develop reliability demonstration test plan for the identified (critical) failure mechanisms and physical elements. It also highlights the benefits of using prior information in order to locate critical spots in the design and in subsequent development of test plans. A case example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach

Suboptimal Choice in Pigeons: Stimulus Value Predicts Choice over Frequencies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aaron P Smith

Full Text Available Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

Science.gov (United States)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Highlights from the early (and pre-) history of reliability engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, J.H.; Marais, K.

2006-01-01

Reliability is a popular concept that has been celebrated for years as a commendable attribute of a person or an artifact. From its modest beginning in 1816-the word reliability was first coined by Samuel T. Coleridge-reliability grew into an omnipresent attribute with qualitative and quantitative connotations that pervades every aspect of our present day technologically intensive world. In this short communication, we highlight key events and the history of ideas that led to the birth of Reliability Engineering, and its development in the subsequent decades. We first argue that statistics and mass production were the enablers in the rise of this new discipline, and the catalyst that accelerated the coming of this new discipline was the (unreliability of the) vacuum tube. We highlight the foundational role of AGREE report in 1957 in the birth of reliability engineering, and discuss the consolidation of numerous efforts in the 1950s into a coherent new technical discipline. We show that an evolution took place in the discipline in the following two decades along two directions: first, there was an increased specialization in the discipline (increased sophistication of statistical techniques, and the rise of a new branch focused on the actual physics of failure of components, Reliability Physics); second, there occurred a shift in the emphasis of the discipline from a component-centric to an emphasis on system-level attributes (system reliability, availability, safety). Finally, in selecting the particular events and highlights in the history of ideas that led to the birth and subsequent development of reliability engineering, we acknowledge a subjective component in this work and make no claims to exhaustiveness

Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

2012-01-01

Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

New horizons in mouse immunoinformatics: reliable in silico prediction of mouse class I histocompatibility major complex peptide binding affinity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Guan, Pingping; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

2004-11-21

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a main cornerstone of modern informatic disciplines. Predictive computational models, based on QSAR technology, of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binding affinity have now become a vital component of modern day computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semi-qualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. The additive method, an established immunoinformatics technique for the quantitative prediction of peptide-protein affinity, was used here to identify the sequence dependence of peptide binding specificity for three mouse class I MHC alleles: H2-D(b), H2-K(b) and H2-K(k). As we show, in terms of reliability the resulting models represent a significant advance on existing methods. They can be used for the accurate prediction of T-cell epitopes and are freely available online ( http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

Immediate Judgments of Learning Predict Subsequent Recollection: Evidence from Event-Related Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Skavhaug, Ida-Maria; Wilding, Edward L.; Donaldson, David I.

2013-01-01

Judgments of learning (JOLs) are assessments of how well materials have been learned. Although a wide body of literature has demonstrated a reliable correlation between memory performance and JOLs, relatively little is known about the nature of this link. Here, we investigate the relationship between JOLs and the memory retrieval processes engaged…

A comparative study on the HW reliability assessment methods for digital I and C equipment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Sung, T. Y.; Eom, H. S.; Park, J. K.; Kang, H. G.; Lee, G. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea); Kim, M. C. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea); Jun, S. T. [KHNP, Taejeon (Korea)

2002-03-01

It is necessary to predict or to evaluate the reliability of electronic equipment for the probabilistic safety analysis of digital instrument and control equipment. But most databases for the reliability prediction have no data for the up-to-date equipment and the failure modes are not classified. The prediction results for the specific component show different values according to the methods and databases. For boards and systems each method shows different values than others also. This study is for reliability prediction of PDC system for Wolsong NPP1 as a digital I and C equipment. Various reliability prediction methods and failure databases are used in calculation of the reliability to compare the effects of sensitivity and accuracy of each model and database. Many considerations for the reliability assessment of digital systems are derived with the results of this study. 14 refs., 19 figs., 15 tabs. (Author)

Effects of feedback reliability on feedback-related brain activity: A feedback valuation account.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Benjamin; Steinhauser, Marco

2018-04-06

Adaptive decision making relies on learning from feedback. Because feedback sometimes can be misleading, optimal learning requires that knowledge about the feedback's reliability be utilized to adjust feedback processing. Although previous research has shown that feedback reliability indeed influences feedback processing, the underlying mechanisms through which this is accomplished remain unclear. Here we propose that feedback processing is adjusted by the adaptive, top-down valuation of feedback. We assume that unreliable feedback is devalued relative to reliable feedback, thus reducing the reward prediction errors that underlie feedback-related brain activity and learning. A crucial prediction of this account is that the effects of feedback reliability are susceptible to contrast effects. That is, the effects of feedback reliability should be enhanced when both reliable and unreliable feedback are experienced within the same context, as compared to when only one level of feedback reliability is experienced. To evaluate this prediction, we measured the event-related potentials elicited by feedback in two experiments in which feedback reliability was varied either within or between blocks. We found that the fronto-central valence effect, a correlate of reward prediction errors during reinforcement learning, was reduced for unreliable feedback. But this result was obtained only when feedback reliability was varied within blocks, thus indicating a contrast effect. This suggests that the adaptive valuation of feedback is one mechanism underlying the effects of feedback reliability on feedback processing.

Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

2016-11-01

The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

Linear Interaction Energy Based Prediction of Cytochrome P450 1A2 Binding Affinities with Reliability Estimation.

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Luigi Capoferri

Full Text Available Prediction of human Cytochrome P450 (CYP binding affinities of small ligands, i.e., substrates and inhibitors, represents an important task for predicting drug-drug interactions. A quantitative assessment of the ligand binding affinity towards different CYPs can provide an estimate of inhibitory activity or an indication of isoforms prone to interact with the substrate of inhibitors. However, the accuracy of global quantitative models for CYP substrate binding or inhibition based on traditional molecular descriptors can be limited, because of the lack of information on the structure and flexibility of the catalytic site of CYPs. Here we describe the application of a method that combines protein-ligand docking, Molecular Dynamics (MD simulations and Linear Interaction Energy (LIE theory, to allow for quantitative CYP affinity prediction. Using this combined approach, a LIE model for human CYP 1A2 was developed and evaluated, based on a structurally diverse dataset for which the estimated experimental uncertainty was 3.3 kJ mol-1. For the computed CYP 1A2 binding affinities, the model showed a root mean square error (RMSE of 4.1 kJ mol-1 and a standard error in prediction (SDEP in cross-validation of 4.3 kJ mol-1. A novel approach that includes information on both structural ligand description and protein-ligand interaction was developed for estimating the reliability of predictions, and was able to identify compounds from an external test set with a SDEP for the predicted affinities of 4.6 kJ mol-1 (corresponding to 0.8 pKi units.

Reliability of steam-turbine rotors. Task 1. Lifetime prediction analysis system. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nair, P.K.; Pennick, H.G.; Peters, J.E.; Wells, C.H.

1982-12-01

Task 1 of RP 502, Reliability of Steam Turbine Rotors, resulted in the development of a computerized lifetime prediction analysis system (STRAP) for the automatic evaluation of rotor integrity based upon the results of a boresonic examination of near-bore defects. Concurrently an advanced boresonic examination system (TREES), designed to acquire data automatically for lifetime analysis, was developed and delivered to the maintenance shop of a major utility. This system and a semi-automated, state-of-the-art system (BUCS) were evaluated on two retired rotors as part of the Task 2 effort. A modified nonproprietary version of STRAP, called SAFER, is now available for rotor lifetime prediction analysis. STRAP and SAFER share a common fracture analysis postprocessor for rapid evaluation of either conventional boresonic amplitude data or TREES cell data. The final version of this postprocessor contains general stress intensity correlations for elliptical cracks in a radial stress gradient and provision for elastic-plastic instability of the ligament between an imbedded crack and the bore surface. Both linear elastic and ligament rupture models were developed for rapid analysis of linkup within three-dimensional clusters of defects. Bore stress-rupture criteria are included, but a creep-fatigue crack growth data base is not available. Physical and mechanical properties of air-melt 1CrMoV forgings are built into the program; however, only bounding values of fracture toughness versus temperature are available. Owing to the lack of data regarding the probability of flaw detection for the boresonic systems and of quantitative verification of the flaw linkup analysis, automatic evlauation of boresonic results is not recommended, and the lifetime prediction system is currently restricted to conservative, deterministic analysis of specified flaw geometries

Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Reliability - Power System - Bayes Theorem - Weibull Model - Probability. ... ensure a series of estimated parameter (failure rate, mean time to failure, function .... only on random variable r.v. describing the operating conditions: ..... Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time, Reliability Engineering.

Prediction of Osteoporosis through Radiographic Assessment of Proximal Femoral Morphology and Texture in Elderly; is it Valid and Reliable

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özkan Köse

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the best predictive radiographic measurement method to identify the presence of osteoporosis and test the inter-observer and intra-observer reliability and validity of these methods in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods: Ninety-two elderly female patients who presented with hip pain were included. Hip radiographs were used to determine the values of Singh index (SI, canal-to-calcar ratio (CCR, and cortical thickness index (CTI. All measurements were performed by two independent observers on two separate occasions, at least 4 weeks apart. Bone mineral density (BMD was assessed by DEXA. In the first part of the analysis, reliability of the all measurement methods was tested. In the second part, correlation coefficient (Pearson r was used to determine the relationship between the measurement methods and BMD. Finally ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and threshold values for each radiographic measurement method. Results: Intra-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.359 for observer A, and 0.224 for observer B. Inter-observer reliability analysis of SI revealed kappa coefficient of 0.070 for observer A and 0.051 for observer B. The intra-observer and inter-observer reliability was good and excellent for CTI and CCR for both observers (ICC: 0.920 and ICC: 0.936. There was no correlation between SI and BMD (p=0.818. On the other hand, there was a significant correlation between CTI and CCR and BMD (p=0.001. All measured indices were significantly different (p<0.05 between osteoporotic and non-osteoporotic patients. CTI value less than 0.3 or CCR value less than 0.47 reflects the presence of osteoporosis with 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Conclusion: SI is not reliable and do not correlate with BMD. However, both CTI and CCR showed good and excellent reliability, and each index correlated well with the real BMD

Final Report for the Virtual Reliability Realization System LDRD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DELLIN, THEODORE A.; HENDERSON, CHRISTOPHER L.; O' TOOLE, EDWARD J.

2000-12-01

Current approaches to reliability are not adequate to keep pace with the need for faster, better and cheaper products and systems. This is especially true in high consequence of failure applications. The original proposal for the LDRD was to look at this challenge and see if there was a new paradigm that could make reliability predictions, along with a quantitative estimate of the risk in that prediction, in a way that was faster, better and cheaper. Such an approach would be based on the underlying science models that are the backbone of reliability predictions. The new paradigm would be implemented in two software tools: the Virtual Reliability Realization System (VRRS) and the Reliability Expert System (REX). The three-year LDRD was funded at a reduced level for the first year ($120K vs. $250K) and not renewed. Because of the reduced funding, we concentrated on the initial development of the expertise system. We developed an interactive semiconductor calculation tool needed for reliability analyses. We also were able to generate a basic functional system using Microsoft Siteserver Commerce Edition and Microsoft Sequel Server. The base system has the capability to store Office documents from multiple authors, and has the ability to track and charge for usage. The full outline of the knowledge model has been incorporated as well as examples of various types of content.

Impulsive reactions to food-cues predict subsequent food craving.

Science.gov (United States)

Meule, Adrian; Lutz, Annika P C; Vögele, Claus; Kübler, Andrea

2014-01-01

Low inhibitory control has been associated with overeating and addictive behaviors. Inhibitory control can modulate cue-elicited craving in social or alcohol-dependent drinkers, and trait impulsivity may also play a role in food-cue reactivity. The current study investigated food-cue affected response inhibition and its relationship to food craving using a stop-signal task with pictures of food and neutral stimuli. Participants responded slower to food pictures as compared to neutral pictures. Reaction times in response to food pictures positively predicted scores on the Food Cravings Questionnaire - State (FCQ-S) after the task and particularly scores on its hunger subscale. Lower inhibitory performance in response to food pictures predicted higher FCQ-S scores and particularly those related to a desire for food and lack of control over consumption. Task performance was unrelated to current dieting or other measures of habitual eating behaviors. Results support models on interactive effects of top-down inhibitory control processes and bottom-up hedonic signals in the self-regulation of eating behavior, such that low inhibitory control specifically in response to appetitive stimuli is associated with increased craving, which may ultimately result in overeating. © 2013.

Macroscopic travel time reliability diagrams for freeway networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tu, H.; Li, H.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Knoop, V.L.; Sun, L.

2013-01-01

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators of transport system performance. Knowledge of the mechanisms of travel time unreliability enables the derivation of explanatory models with which travel time reliability can be predicted and utilized in traffic management.

Thermal Cycling Life Prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Using Type-I Censored Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinhua Mi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products.

Stress analysis of R2 pressure vessel. Structural reliability benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vestergaard, N.

1987-05-01

The Structural Reliability Benchmark Exercise (SRBE) is sponsored by the EEC as part of the Reactor Safety Programme. The objectives of the SRBE are to evaluate and improve 1) inspection procedures, which use non-destructive methods to locate defects in pressure (reactor) vessels, as well as 2) analytical damage accumulation models, which predict the time to failure of vessels containing defects. In order to focus attention, an experimental presure vessel has been inspected, subjected fatigue loadings and subsequently analysed by several teams using methods of their choice. The present report contains the first part of the analytical damage accumulation analysis. The stress distributions in the welds of the experimental pressure vessel were determined. These stress distributions will be used to determine the driving forces of the damage accumulation models, which will be addressed in a future report. (author)

Reliability and validity in a nutshell.

Science.gov (United States)

Bannigan, Katrina; Watson, Roger

2009-12-01

To explore and explain the different concepts of reliability and validity as they are related to measurement instruments in social science and health care. There are different concepts contained in the terms reliability and validity and these are often explained poorly and there is often confusion between them. To develop some clarity about reliability and validity a conceptual framework was built based on the existing literature. The concepts of reliability, validity and utility are explored and explained. Reliability contains the concepts of internal consistency and stability and equivalence. Validity contains the concepts of content, face, criterion, concurrent, predictive, construct, convergent (and divergent), factorial and discriminant. In addition, for clinical practice and research, it is essential to establish the utility of a measurement instrument. To use measurement instruments appropriately in clinical practice, the extent to which they are reliable, valid and usable must be established.

On reliable discovery of molecular signatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björkegren Johan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular signatures are sets of genes, proteins, genetic variants or other variables that can be used as markers for a particular phenotype. Reliable signature discovery methods could yield valuable insight into cell biology and mechanisms of human disease. However, it is currently not clear how to control error rates such as the false discovery rate (FDR in signature discovery. Moreover, signatures for cancer gene expression have been shown to be unstable, that is, difficult to replicate in independent studies, casting doubts on their reliability. Results We demonstrate that with modern prediction methods, signatures that yield accurate predictions may still have a high FDR. Further, we show that even signatures with low FDR may fail to replicate in independent studies due to limited statistical power. Thus, neither stability nor predictive accuracy are relevant when FDR control is the primary goal. We therefore develop a general statistical hypothesis testing framework that for the first time provides FDR control for signature discovery. Our method is demonstrated to be correct in simulation studies. When applied to five cancer data sets, the method was able to discover molecular signatures with 5% FDR in three cases, while two data sets yielded no significant findings. Conclusion Our approach enables reliable discovery of molecular signatures from genome-wide data with current sample sizes. The statistical framework developed herein is potentially applicable to a wide range of prediction problems in bioinformatics.

Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zequn; Chen, Wei

2016-01-01

Time-variant reliability measures the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended functions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In practice, it is computationally prohibitive to propagate uncertainty in time-variant reliability assessment based on expensive or complex numerical models. This paper presents an equivalent stochastic process transformation approach for cost-effective prediction of reliability deterioration over the life cycle of an engineering system. To reduce the high dimensionality, a time-independent reliability model is developed by translating random processes and time parameters into random parameters in order to equivalently cover all potential failures that may occur during the time interval of interest. With the time-independent reliability model, an instantaneous failure surface is attained by using a Kriging-based surrogate model to identify all potential failure events. To enhance the efficacy of failure surface identification, a maximum confidence enhancement method is utilized to update the Kriging model sequentially. Then, the time-variant reliability is approximated using Monte Carlo simulations of the Kriging model where system failures over a time interval are predicted by the instantaneous failure surface. The results of two case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to accurately predict the time evolution of system reliability while requiring much less computational efforts compared with the existing analytical approach. - Highlights: • Developed a new approach for time-variant reliability analysis. • Proposed a novel stochastic process transformation procedure to reduce the dimensionality. • Employed Kriging models with confidence-based adaptive sampling scheme to enhance computational efficiency. • The approach is effective for handling random process in time-variant reliability analysis. • Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy

Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Hoeven, N.V.

2016-01-01

High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

Detailed predictive mapping of acid sulfate soil occurrence using electromagnetic induction data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beucher, Amélie; Boman, A; Mattbäck, S

impact through the resulting corrosion of concrete and steel infrastructures, or their poor geotechnical qualities. Therefore, mapping acid sulfate soil occurrence constitutes a key step to target the strategic areas for subsequent environmental risk management and mitigation. Conventional mapping (i...... obtained from a EM38 proximal sensor enabled the refined mapping of acid sulfate soils over a field (Huang et al. 2014). The present study aims at developing an efficient and reliable method for the detailed predictive mapping of acid sulfate soil occurrence in a field located in western Finland. Different...

Reliability analysis of shutdown system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; John Arul, A.; Pal Singh, Om; Suryaprakasa Rao, K.

2005-01-01

This paper presents the results of reliability analysis of Shutdown System (SDS) of Indian Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Reliability analysis carried out using Fault Tree Analysis predicts a value of 3.5 x 10 -8 /de for failure of shutdown function in case of global faults and 4.4 x 10 -8 /de for local faults. Based on 20 de/y, the frequency of shutdown function failure is 0.7 x 10 -6 /ry, which meets the reliability target, set by the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board. The reliability is limited by Common Cause Failure (CCF) of actuation part of SDS and to a lesser extent CCF of electronic components. The failure frequency of individual systems is -3 /ry, which also meets the safety criteria. Uncertainty analysis indicates a maximum error factor of 5 for the top event unavailability

Age at First Concussion Influences the Number of Subsequent Concussions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Julianne D; Rizzone, Katherine; Hoffman, Nicole L; Weber, Michelle L; Jones, Courtney; Bazarian, Jeff; Broglio, Steven P; McCrea, Michael; McAllister, Thomas W

2018-04-01

Individuals who sustain their first concussion during childhood may be at greater risk of sustaining multiple concussions throughout their lifetime because of a longer window of vulnerability. This article aims to estimate the association between age at first concussion and number of subsequent concussions. A total of 23,582 collegiate athletes from 26 universities and military cadets from three military academies completed a concussion history questionnaire (65% males, age 19.9 ± 1.4 years). Participants self-reported concussions and age at time of each injury. Participants with a history of concussion (n = 3,647, 15.5%) were categorized as having sustained their first concussion during childhood (less than ten years old) or adolescence (≥10 and ≤18 years old). Poisson regression was used to model age group (childhood, adolescence) predicting the number of subsequent concussions (0, 1, 2+). A second Poisson regression was developed to determine whether age at first concussion predicted the number of subsequent concussions. Participants self-reporting their first concussion during childhood had an increased risk of subsequent concussions (rate ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval: 1.82, 2.64) compared with participants self-reporting their first concussion during adolescence. For every one-year increase in age at first concussion, we observed a 16% reduction in the risk of subsequent concussion (rate ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval: 0.82, 0.86). Individuals self-reporting a concussion at a young age sustained a higher number of concussions before age 18. Concussion prevention, recognition, and reporting strategies are of particular need at the youth level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

2012-01-01

Advances in power electronics enable efficient and flexible processing of electric power in the application of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, adjustable-speed drives, etc. More and more efforts are devoted to better power electronic systems in terms of reliability to ensure high......). A collection of methodologies based on Physics-of-Failure (PoF) approach and mission profile analysis are presented in this paper to perform reliability-oriented design of power electronic systems. The corresponding design procedures and reliability prediction models are provided. Further on, a case study...... on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical components IGBTs. Different aspects of improving the reliability of the power converter are mapped. Finally, the challenges and opportunities to achieve more reliable power electronic systems are addressed....

Component fragility data base for reliability and probability studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassier, M.; Pepper, S.

1989-01-01

Safety-related equipment in a nuclear plant plays a vital role in its proper operation and control, and failure of such equipment due to an earthquake may pose a risk to the safe operation of the plant. Therefore, in order to assess the overall reliability of a plant, the reliability of performance of the equipment should be studied first. The success of a reliability or a probability study depends to a great extent on the data base. To meet this demand, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has formed a test data base relating the seismic capacity of equipment specimens to the earthquake levels. Subsequently, the test data have been analyzed for use in reliability and probability studies. This paper describes the data base and discusses the analysis methods. The final results that can be directly used in plant reliability and probability studies are also presented in this paper

Integration of NDE Reliability and Fracture Mechanics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, F. L.; Doctor, S. R.; Heas!er, P. G.; Morris, C. J.; Pitman, S. G.; Selby, G. P.; Simonen, F. A.

1981-03-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is conducting a four-phase program for measuring and evaluating the effectiveness and reliability of in-service inspection (lSI} performed on the primary system piping welds of commercial light water reactors (LWRs). Phase I of the program is complete. A survey was made of the state of practice for ultrasonic rsr of LWR primary system piping welds. Fracture mechanics calculations were made to establish required nondestrutive testing sensitivities. In general, it was found that fatigue flaws less than 25% of wall thickness would not grow to failure within an inspection interval of 10 years. However, in some cases failure could occur considerably faster. Statistical methods for predicting and measuring the effectiveness and reliability of lSI were developed and will be applied in the "Round Robin Inspections" of Phase II. Methods were also developed for the production of flaws typical of those found in service. Samples fabricated by these methods wilI be used in Phase II to test inspection effectiveness and reliability. Measurements were made of the influence of flaw characteristics {i.e., roughness, tightness, and orientation) on inspection reliability. These measurernents, as well as the predictions of a statistical model for inspection reliability, indicate that current reporting and recording sensitivities are inadequate.

On the Role of Crossmodal Prediction in Audiovisual Emotion Perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah eJessen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Humans rely on multiple sensory modalities to determine the emotional state of others. In fact, such multisensory perception may be one of the mechanisms explaining the ease and efficiency by which others’ emotions are recognized. But how and when exactly do the different modalities interact? One aspect in multisensory perception that has received increasing interest in recent years is the concept of crossmodal prediction. In emotion perception, as in most other settings, visual information precedes the auditory one. Thereby, leading in visual information can facilitate subsequent auditory processing. While this mechanism has often been described in audiovisual speech perception, it has not been addressed so far in audiovisual emotion perception. Based on the current state of the art in (a crossmodal prediction and (b multisensory emotion perception research, we propose that it is essential to consider the former in order to fully understand the latter. Focusing on electroencephalographic (EEG and magnetoencephalographic (MEG studies, we provide a brief overview of the current research in both fields. In discussing these findings, we suggest that emotional visual information may allow for a more reliable prediction of auditory information compared to non-emotional visual information. In support of this hypothesis, we present a re-analysis of a previous data set that shows an inverse correlation between the N1 response in the EEG and the duration of visual emotional but not non-emotional information. If the assumption that emotional content allows for more reliable predictions can be corroborated in future studies, crossmodal prediction is a crucial factor in our understanding of multisensory emotion perception.

On the role of crossmodal prediction in audiovisual emotion perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Jessen, Sarah; Kotz, Sonja A

2013-01-01

Humans rely on multiple sensory modalities to determine the emotional state of others. In fact, such multisensory perception may be one of the mechanisms explaining the ease and efficiency by which others' emotions are recognized. But how and when exactly do the different modalities interact? One aspect in multisensory perception that has received increasing interest in recent years is the concept of cross-modal prediction. In emotion perception, as in most other settings, visual information precedes the auditory information. Thereby, leading in visual information can facilitate subsequent auditory processing. While this mechanism has often been described in audiovisual speech perception, so far it has not been addressed in audiovisual emotion perception. Based on the current state of the art in (a) cross-modal prediction and (b) multisensory emotion perception research, we propose that it is essential to consider the former in order to fully understand the latter. Focusing on electroencephalographic (EEG) and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) studies, we provide a brief overview of the current research in both fields. In discussing these findings, we suggest that emotional visual information may allow more reliable predicting of auditory information compared to non-emotional visual information. In support of this hypothesis, we present a re-analysis of a previous data set that shows an inverse correlation between the N1 EEG response and the duration of visual emotional, but not non-emotional information. If the assumption that emotional content allows more reliable predicting can be corroborated in future studies, cross-modal prediction is a crucial factor in our understanding of multisensory emotion perception.

High levels of C-reactive protein in the peripheral blood during visceral leishmaniasis predict subsequent development of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gasim, S; Theander, T G; ElHassan, A M

2000-01-01

Post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a known sequel to visceral leishmaniasis in India and East Africa, and in Sudan about 50% of the kala-azar patients develop PKDL. In this study we followed kala-azar patients from diagnosis and up to 2 years after initiation of treatment. During...... and in keratinocytes during visceral leishmaniasis predict subsequent development of PKDL. The method however requires expensive equipment and reagents. The results of the present study indicate that kala-azar patients, who have a high risk of developing PKDL after treatment can be identified by measuring plasma CRP....

[Reliability of endocervical curettage after conservative treatment of intraepithelial neoplasia of the cervix].

Science.gov (United States)

Lecointre, L; Akladios, C-Y; Averous, G; Lefebvre, F; Baulon, E; Thoma, V; Fender, M; Baldauf, J-J

2015-02-01

To evaluate the reliability of endocervical curettage (ECC) in patients previously treated for CIN. Retrospective analysis of data from 85 patients between January 1985 and December 2011 who received an ECC during monitoring after treatment of CIN. The reliability of the ECC was evaluated by comparison with the final histological analysis of the surgical specimen or the data for subsequent cyto-colpo-histological follow-up. Patients were referred to colposcopy either within the immediate post-treatment monitoring (n=42), meanly 9.7±5.3 months after treatment, or if cytological abnormalities were detected during long-term monitoring, meanly 78.6±52.4 months after treatment. Colposcopy was unsatisfactory in 75.3% of patients and normal colposcopic findings were found in 80% of patients. A perfect agreement between the ECC and the endocervical final diagnosis was noted in 68 patients (80%). For the diagnosis of severe cervical lesions (CIN 2+) ECC had a sensitivity of 86.2% (68.3-96.1), a specificity of 94.6% (85.1-98.9) and positive and negative predictive values of 61.4% (47.6-74.0) and 93% (83.0-98.1), respectively. The high sensitivity and negative predictive value of ECC for the diagnosis of severe post-therapeutic endocervical lesions avoid iterative treatment without increasing the risk of progression of a lesion to cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Reliability assessment of passive containment isolation system using APSRA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nayak, A.K.; Jain, Vikas; Gartia, M.R.; Srivastava, A.; Prasad, Hari; Anthony, A.; Gaikwad, A.J.; Bhatia, S.; Sinha, R.K.

2008-01-01

In this paper, a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) has been employed for evaluation of the reliability of passive systems. The methodology has been applied to the passive containment isolation system (PCIS) of the Indian advanced heavy water reactor (AHWR). In the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability evaluation is based on the failure probability of the system to carryout the desired function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions by assigning a predetermined failure criterion. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the PCIS performance. APSRA proposes to compare the code predictions with the test data to generate the uncertainties on the failure parameter prediction, which is later considered in the code for accurate prediction of failure surface of the system. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the cause of failure is examined through root diagnosis, which occurs mainly due to failure of mechanical components. The failure probability of these components is evaluated through a classical PSA treatment using the generic data. The reliability of the PCIS is evaluated from the probability of availability of the components for the success of the passive containment isolation system

A Reliability-Oriented Design Method for Power Electronic Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Huai; Zhou, Dao; Blaabjerg, Frede

2013-01-01

Reliability is a crucial performance indicator of power electronic systems in terms of availability, mission accomplishment and life cycle cost. A paradigm shift in the research on reliability of power electronics is going on from simple handbook based calculations (e.g. models in MIL-HDBK-217F h...... and reliability prediction models are provided. A case study on a 2.3 MW wind power converter is discussed with emphasis on the reliability critical component IGBT modules....

Predictive modeling of reactive wetting and metal joining.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

van Swol, Frank B.

2013-09-01

The performance, reproducibility and reliability of metal joints are complex functions of the detailed history of physical processes involved in their creation. Prediction and control of these processes constitutes an intrinsically challenging multi-physics problem involving heating and melting a metal alloy and reactive wetting. Understanding this process requires coupling strong molecularscale chemistry at the interface with microscopic (diffusion) and macroscopic mass transport (flow) inside the liquid followed by subsequent cooling and solidification of the new metal mixture. The final joint displays compositional heterogeneity and its resulting microstructure largely determines the success or failure of the entire component. At present there exists no computational tool at Sandia that can predict the formation and success of a braze joint, as current capabilities lack the ability to capture surface/interface reactions and their effect on interface properties. This situation precludes us from implementing a proactive strategy to deal with joining problems. Here, we describe what is needed to arrive at a predictive modeling and simulation capability for multicomponent metals with complicated phase diagrams for melting and solidification, incorporating dissolutive and composition-dependent wetting.

A human hemi-cornea model for eye irritation testing: quality control of production, reliability and predictive capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelke, M; Zorn-Kruppa, M; Gabel, D; Reisinger, K; Rusche, B; Mewes, K R

2013-02-01

We have developed a 3-dimensional human hemi-cornea which comprises an immortalized epithelial cell line and keratocytes embedded in a collagen stroma. In the present study, we have used MTT reduction of the whole tissue to clarify whether the production of this complex 3-D-model is transferable into other laboratories and whether these tissues can be constructed reproducibly. Our results demonstrate the reproducible production of the hemi-cornea model according to standard operation procedures using 15 independent batches of reconstructed hemi-cornea models in two independent laboratories each. Furthermore, the hemi-cornea tissues have been treated with 20 chemicals of different eye-irritating potential under blind conditions to assess the performance and limitations of our test system comparing three different prediction models. The most suitable prediction model revealed an overall in vitro-in vivo concordance of 80% and 70% in the participating laboratories, respectively, and an inter-laboratory concordance of 80%. Sensitivity of the test was 77% and specificity was between 57% and 86% to discriminate classified from non-classified chemicals. We conclude that additional physiologically relevant endpoints in both epithelium and stroma have to be developed for the reliable prediction of all GHS classes of eye irritation in one stand alone test system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FFTF [Fast Flux Test Facility] reactor shutdown system reliability reevaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, B.F.

1986-07-01

The reliability analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility reactor shutdown system was reevaluated. Failure information based on five years of plant operating experience was used to verify original reliability numbers or to establish new ones. Also, system modifications made subsequent to performance of the original analysis were incorporated into the reevaluation. Reliability calculations and sensitivity analyses were performed using a commercially available spreadsheet on a personal computer. The spreadsheet was configured so that future failures could be tracked and compared with expected failures. A number of recommendations resulted from the reevaluation including both increased and decreased surveillance intervals. All recommendations were based on meeting or exceeding existing reliability goals. Considerable cost savings will be incurred upon implementation of the recommendations

Integrated reliability condition monitoring and maintenance of equipment

CERN Document Server

Osarenren, John

2015-01-01

Consider a Viable and Cost-Effective Platform for the Industries of the Future (IOF) Benefit from improved safety, performance, and product deliveries to your customers. Achieve a higher rate of equipment availability, performance, product quality, and reliability. Integrated Reliability: Condition Monitoring and Maintenance of Equipment incorporates reliable engineering and mathematical modeling to help you move toward sustainable development in reliability condition monitoring and maintenance. This text introduces a cost-effective integrated reliability growth monitor, integrated reliability degradation monitor, technological inheritance coefficient sensors, and a maintenance tool that supplies real-time information for predicting and preventing potential failures of manufacturing processes and equipment. The author highlights five key elements that are essential to any improvement program: improving overall equipment and part effectiveness, quality, and reliability; improving process performance with maint...

Response to intravenous fentanyl infusion predicts subsequent response to transdermal fentanyl.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayashi, Norihito; Kanai, Akifumi; Suzuki, Asaha; Nagahara, Yuki; Okamoto, Hirotsugu

2016-04-01

Prediction of the response to transdermal fentanyl (FENtd) before its use for chronic pain is desirable. We tested the hypothesis that the response to intravenous fentanyl infusion (FENiv) can predict the response to FENtd, including the analgesic and adverse effects. The study subjects were 70 consecutive patients with chronic pain. The response to fentanyl at 0.1 mg diluted in 50 ml of physiological saline and infused over 30 min was tested. This was followed by treatment with FENtd (Durotep MT patch 2.1 mg) at a dose of 12.5 µg/h for 2 weeks. Pain intensity before and after FENiv and 2 weeks after FENtd, and the response to treatment, were assessed by the numerical rating scale (NRS), clinical global impression-improvement scale (CGI-I), satisfaction scale (SS), and adverse effects. The NRS score decreased significantly from 7 (4-9) [median (range)] at baseline to 3 (0-8) after FENiv (p 0.04, each). The analgesic and side effects after intravenous fentanyl infusion can be used to predict the response to short-term transdermal treatment with fentanyl.

Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

2013-01-01

To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

Increasing of prediction reliability of calcium carbonate scale formation in heat exchanger of secondary coolant circuits of thermal and nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tret'yakov, O.V.; Kritskij, V.G.; Styazhkin, P.S.

1991-01-01

Calcium carbonate scale formation in the secondary circuit heat exchanger of thermal and nuclear power plants is investigated. A model of calcium-carbonate scale formation providing quite reliable prediction of process running and the possibility of its control affecting the parameters of hydrochemical regime (HCR) is developed. The results can be used when designing the automatic-control system of HCR

Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

2016-08-01

Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

Supply reliability in context to quality regulation. Forecast model for the supply reliability; Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit im Kontext der Qualitaetsregulierung. Prognosemodell fuer die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quadflieg, Dieter [VDE, Berlin (Germany). FNN-Projektgruppe ' ' Einflussgroessen auf die Versorgungszuverlaessigkeit' '

2011-11-14

The forum network technology / network operations in VDE (FNN) has published a technical note on supply reliability in the context of quality regulation. In the underlying investigations, on the one hand the influencing variables on the supply reliability are analyzed on the basis of FNN fault and availability statistics. On the other stochastic methods are developed that allow a prediction of the stochastic reliability characteristics of each network operator.

Quality and reliability management and its applications

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace.   Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice.    Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

Subsequent Vertebral Fractures Post Cement Augmentation of the Thoracolumbar Spine: Does it Correlate With Level-specific Bone Mineral Density Scores?

Science.gov (United States)

Hey, Hwee Weng Dennis; Hwee Weng, Dennis Hey; Tan, Jun Hao; Jun, Hao Tan; Tan, Chuen Seng; Chuen, Seng Tan; Tan, Hsi Ming Bryan; Ming, Bryan Tan Hsi; Lau, Puang Huh Bernard; Huh, Bernard Lau Puang; Hee, Hwan Tak; Hwan, Tak Hee

2015-12-01

A case-control study. In this study, we investigated the correlation between level-specific preoperative bone mineral density and subsequent vertebral fractures. We also identified factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. Complications of cement augmentation of the spine include subsequent vertebral fractures, leading to unnecessary morbidity and more treatment. Ability to predict at-risk vertebra will help guide management. We studied all patients with osteoporotic compression fractures who underwent cement augmentation in a single institution from November 2001 to December 2010 by a single surgeon. Association between level-specific bone mineral density T-scores and subsequent fractures was assessed. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify significant factors associated with subsequent vertebral fractures. 93 patients followed up for a mean duration of 25.1 months (12-96) had a mean age of 76.8 years (47-99). Vertebroplasty was performed in 58 patients (62.4%) on 68 levels and kyphoplasty in 35 patients (37.6%) on 44 levels. Refracture was seen in 16 patients (17.2%). The time to subsequent fracture post cement augmentation was 20.5 months (2-90). For refracture cases, 43.8% (7/16) fractured in the adjacent vertebrae. Subsequently fractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.860 (95% confidence interval -3.268 to -2.452) and nonfractured vertebra had a mean T-score of -2.180 (95% confidence interval -2.373 to -1.986). A T-score of -2.2 or lower is predictive of refracture at that vertebra (P = 0.047). Odds ratio increases with decreasing T-scores from -2.2 or lower to -2.6 or lower. A T-score of -2.6 or lower gives no additional predictive advantage. After multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.049) and loss of preoperative anterior vertebral height (P = 0.017) are associated with refracture. Level-specific T-scores are predictive of subsequent fractures and the odds ratio increases with lower T-scores from -2.2 or less to -2.6 or less. They

Operational reliability management; Gestao da confiabilidade operacional

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bressan, Edemir [Refinaria Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP), Canoas, RS (Brazil). Setor de Tecnologia de Equipamentos

2000-07-01

It is described the PETROBRAS Alberto Pasqualini Refinery process plant reliability management, strategies, maintenance organizational structure, management processes, predictive and preventive maintenance, condition monitoring techniques, reliability metrics, pointing out a need for close work relationship between production, maintenance and project engineering functions with highly qualified and committed proper teams, in order to reach one of the highest mechanical availability among Latin America refineries. (author)

Failure database and tools for wind turbine availability and reliability analyses. The application of reliability data for selected wind turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Christensen, P.; Winther-Jensen, M.

2000-01-01

The objective of this project was to develop and establish a database for collecting reliability and reliability-related data, for assessing the reliability of wind turbine components and subsystems and wind turbines as a whole, as well as for assessingwind turbine availability while ranking the ...... similar safety systems. The database was established with Microsoft Access DatabaseManagement System, the software for reliability and availability assessments was created with Visual Basic....... the contributions at both the component and system levels. The project resulted in a software package combining a failure database with programs for predicting WTB availability and the reliability of all thecomponents and systems, especially the safety system. The report consists of a description of the theoretical......The objective of this project was to develop and establish a database for collecting reliability and reliability-related data, for assessing the reliability of wind turbine components and subsystems and wind turbines as a whole, as well as for assessingwind turbine availability while ranking...

People consider reliability and cost when verifying their autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Kimberley A; Nash, Robert A; Garry, Maryanne

2014-02-01

Because memories are not always accurate, people rely on a variety of strategies to verify whether the events that they remember really did occur. Several studies have examined which strategies people tend to use, but none to date has asked why people opt for certain strategies over others. Here we examined the extent to which people's beliefs about the reliability and the cost of different strategies would determine their strategy selection. Subjects described a childhood memory and then suggested strategies they might use to verify the accuracy of that memory. Next, they rated the reliability and cost of each strategy, and the likelihood that they might use it. Reliability and cost each predicted strategy selection, but a combination of the two ratings provided even greater predictive value. Cost was significantly more influential than reliability, which suggests that a tendency to seek and to value "cheap" information more than reliable information could underlie many real-world memory errors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Steam generator reliability improvement project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

1987-01-01

Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986 and be replaced in January 1987 by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue the emphasis on reliability and life extension that was carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems, such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation (NDE). These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and solve small problems before they become large problems

Steam generator reliability improvement project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blomgren, J.C.; Green, S.J.

1987-01-01

Upon successful completion of its research and development technology transfer program, the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) Steam Generator Owners Group (SGOG II) will disband in December 1986, and be replaced in January 1987, by a successor project, the Steam Generator Reliability Project (SGRP). The new project, funded in the EPRI base program, will continue to emphasize reliability and life extension, which were carried forward by SGOG II. The objectives of SGOG II have been met. Causes and remedies have been identified for tubing corrosion problems such as stress corrosion cracking and pitting, and steam generator technology has been improved in areas such as tube wear prediction and nondestructive evaluation. These actions have led to improved reliability of steam generators. Now the owners want to continue with a centrally managed program that builds on what has been learned. The goal is to continue to improve steam generator reliability and to solve small problems before they become large problems

Forecasting reliability of transformer populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schijndel, van A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

2007-01-01

The expected replacement wave in the current power grid faces asset managers with challenging questions. Setting up a replacement strategy and planning calls for a forecast of the long term component reliability. For transformers the future failure probability can be predicted based on the ongoing

Local connectome phenotypes predict social, health, and cognitive factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A. Powell

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The unique architecture of the human connectome is defined initially by genetics and subsequently sculpted over time with experience. Thus, similarities in predisposition and experience that lead to similarities in social, biological, and cognitive attributes should also be reflected in the local architecture of white matter fascicles. Here we employ a method known as local connectome fingerprinting that uses diffusion MRI to measure the fiber-wise characteristics of macroscopic white matter pathways throughout the brain. This fingerprinting approach was applied to a large sample (N = 841 of subjects from the Human Connectome Project, revealing a reliable degree of between-subject correlation in the local connectome fingerprints, with a relatively complex, low-dimensional substructure. Using a cross-validated, high-dimensional regression analysis approach, we derived local connectome phenotype (LCP maps that could reliably predict a subset of subject attributes measured, including demographic, health, and cognitive measures. These LCP maps were highly specific to the attribute being predicted but also sensitive to correlations between attributes. Collectively, these results indicate that the local architecture of white matter fascicles reflects a meaningful portion of the variability shared between subjects along several dimensions. The local connectome is the pattern of fiber systems (i.e., number of fibers, orientation, and size within a voxel, and it reflects the proximal characteristics of white matter fascicles distributed throughout the brain. Here we show how variability in the local connectome is correlated in a principled way across individuals. This intersubject correlation is reliable enough that unique phenotype maps can be learned to predict between-subject variability in a range of social, health, and cognitive attributes. This work shows, for the first time, how the local connectome has both the sensitivity and the specificity to

Danish VISA-A questionnaire with validation and reliability testing for Danish-speaking Achilles tendinopathy patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, J. V.; Bartels, E. M.; Jørgensen, J. E.

2016-01-01

The VISA-A questionnaire has proven to be a valid and reliable tool for assessing severity of Achilles tendinopathy (AT). The aim was to translate and cross-culturally adapt the VISA-A questionnaire for a Danish-speaking AT population, and subsequently perform validity and reliability tests...

Reliability Analysis for Safety Grade PLC(POSAFE-Q)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kyung Chul; Song, Seung Whan; Park, Gang Min; Hwang, Sung Jae

2012-01-01

Safety Grade PLC(Programmable Logic Controller), POSAFE-Q, was developed recently in accordance with nuclear regulatory and requirements. In this paper, describe reliability analysis for digital safety grade PLC (especially POSAFE-Q). Reliability analysis scope is Prediction, Calculation of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), FMEA (Failure Mode Effect Analysis), PFD (Probability of Failure on Demand). (author)

Validity and Reliability Study of the Korean Tinetti Mobility Test for Parkinson's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jinse; Koh, Seong-Beom; Kim, Hee Jin; Oh, Eungseok; Kim, Joong-Seok; Yun, Ji Young; Kwon, Do-Young; Kim, Younsoo; Kim, Ji Seon; Kwon, Kyum-Yil; Park, Jeong-Ho; Youn, Jinyoung; Jang, Wooyoung

2018-01-01

Postural instability and gait disturbance are the cardinal symptoms associated with falling among patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The Tinetti mobility test (TMT) is a well-established measurement tool used to predict falls among elderly people. However, the TMT has not been established or widely used among PD patients in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Korean version of the TMT for PD patients. Twenty-four patients diagnosed with PD were enrolled in this study. For the interrater reliability test, thirteen clinicians scored the TMT after watching a video clip. We also used the test-retest method to determine intrarater reliability. For concurrent validation, the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale, Hoehn and Yahr staging, Berg Balance Scale, Timed-Up and Go test, 10-m walk test, and gait analysis by three-dimensional motion capture were also used. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic curve to predict falling. The interrater reliability and intrarater reliability of the Korean Tinetti balance scale were 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The interrater reliability and intra-rater reliability of the Korean Tinetti gait scale were 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The Korean TMT scores were significantly correlated with the other clinical scales and three-dimensional motion capture. The cutoff values for predicting falling were 14 points (balance subscale) and 10 points (gait subscale). We found that the Korean version of the TMT showed excellent validity and reliability for gait and balance and had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting falls among patients with PD.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 1: HARP introduction and user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mittal, Nitin; Boyd, Mark A.; Geist, Robert M.; Smotherman, Mark D.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested, within the aerospace community for over 8 years. Volume 1 provides an introduction to the HARP program. Comprehensive information on HARP mathematical models can be found in the references.

Predicting Subsequent Task Performance From Goal Motivation and Goal Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Catherine Healy

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent research has demonstrated that the cognitive processes associated with goal pursuit can continue to interfere with unrelated tasks when a goal is unfulfilled. Drawing from the self-regulation and goal-striving literatures, the present study explored the impact of goal failure on subsequent cognitive and physical task performance. Furthermore, we examined if the autonomous or controlled motivation underpinning goal striving moderates the responses to goal failure. Athletes (75 male, 59 female, Mage = 19.90 years, SDage = 3.50 completed a cycling trial with the goal of covering a given distance in 8 minutes. Prior to the trial, their motivation was primed using a video. During the trial they were provided with manipulated performance feedback, thus creating conditions of goal success or failure. No differences emerged in the responses to goal failure between the primed motivation or performance feedback conditions. We make recommendations for future research into how individuals can deal with failure in goal striving.

Methods to compute reliabilities for genomic predictions of feed intake

Science.gov (United States)

For new traits without historical reference data, cross-validation is often the preferred method to validate reliability (REL). Time truncation is less useful because few animals gain substantial REL after the truncation point. Accurate cross-validation requires separating genomic gain from pedigree...

A reliability evaluation method for NPP safety DCS application software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yunjian; Zhang Lei; Liu Yuan

2014-01-01

In the field of nuclear power plant (NPP) digital i and c application, reliability evaluation for safety DCS application software is a key obstacle to be removed. In order to quantitatively evaluate reliability of NPP safety DCS application software, this paper propose a reliability evaluating method based on software development life cycle every stage's v and v defects density characteristics, by which the operating reliability level of the software can be predicted before its delivery, and helps to improve the reliability of NPP safety important software. (authors)

Evaluation of secretion prediction highlights differing approaches needed for oomycete and fungal effectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana eSperschneider

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The steadily increasing number of sequenced fungal and oomycete genomes has enabled detailed studies of how these eukaryotic microbes infect plants and cause devastating losses in food crops. During infection, fungal and oomycete pathogens secrete effector molecules which manipulate host plant cell processes to the pathogen’s advantage. Proteinaceous effectors are synthesised intracellularly and must be externalised to interact with host cells. Computational prediction of secreted proteins from genomic sequences is an important technique to narrow down the candidate effector repertoire for subsequent experimental validation. In this study, we benchmark secretion prediction tools on experimentally validated fungal and oomycete effectors. We observe that for a set of fungal SwissProt protein sequences, SignalP 4 and the neural network predictors of SignalP 3 (D-score and SignalP 2 perform best. For effector prediction in particular, the use of a sensitive method can be desirable to obtain the most complete candidate effector set. We show that the neural network predictors of SignalP 2 and 3, as well as TargetP were the most sensitive tools for fungal effector secretion prediction, whereas the hidden Markov model predictors of SignalP 2 and 3 were the most sensitive tools for oomycete effectors. Thus, previous versions of SignalP retain value for oomycete effector prediction, as the current version, SignalP 4, was unable to reliably predict the signal peptide of the oomycete Crinkler effectors in the test set. Our assessment of subcellular localisation predictors shows that cytoplasmic effectors are often predicted as not extracellular. This limits the reliability of secretion predictions that depend on these tools. We present our assessment with a view to informing future pathogenomics studies and suggest revised pipelines for secretion prediction to obtain optimal effector predictions in fungi and oomycetes.

The occipitofrontal circumference: reliable prediction of the intracranial volume in children with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rijken, Bianca Francisca Maria; den Ottelander, Bianca Kelly; van Veelen, Marie-Lise Charlotte; Lequin, Maarten Hans; Mathijssen, Irene Margreet Jacqueline

2015-05-01

OBJECT Patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis are characterized by the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures. These patients are at risk for developing elevated intracranial pressure (ICP). There are several factors known to contribute to elevated ICP in these patients, including craniocerebral disproportion, hydrocephalus, venous hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea. However, the causal mechanism is unknown, and patients develop elevated ICP even after skull surgery. In clinical practice, the occipitofrontal circumference (OFC) is used as an indirect measure for intracranial volume (ICV), to evaluate skull growth. However, it remains unknown whether OFC is a reliable predictor of ICV in patients with a severe skull deformity. Therefore, in this study the authors evaluated the relation between ICV and OFC. METHODS Eighty-four CT scans obtained in 69 patients with syndromic and complex craniosynostosis treated at the Erasmus University Medical Center-Sophia Children's Hospital were included. The ICV was calculated based on CT scans by using autosegmentation with an HU threshold CT scans and OFC measurements were matched based on a maximum amount of the time that was allowed between these examinations, which was dependent on age. A Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to evaluate the correlations between OFC and ICV. The predictive value of OFC, age, and sex on ICV was then further evaluated using a univariate linear mixed model. The significant factors in the univariate analysis were subsequently entered in a multivariate mixed model. RESULTS The correlations found between OFC and ICV were r = 0.908 for the total group (p < 0.001), r = 0.981 for Apert (p < 0.001), r = 0.867 for Crouzon-Pfeiffer (p < 0.001), r = 0.989 for Muenke (p < 0.001), r = 0.858 for Saethre- Chotzen syndrome (p = 0.001), and r = 0.917 for complex craniosynostosis (p < 0.001). Age and OFC were significant predictors of ICV in the univariate linear mixed

Reliability metrics extraction for power electronics converter stressed by thermal cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Ke; Choi, Uimin; Blaabjerg, Frede

2017-01-01

Due to the continuous demands for highly reliable and cost-effective power conversion, the quantified reliability performances of the power electronics converter are becoming emerging needs. The existing reliability modelling approaches for the power electronics converter mainly focuses on the pr...... performance of power electronics system. The final predicted results showed good accuracy with much more reliability information compared to the existing approaches, and the quantified reliability correlation to the mission profiles of converter is mathematically established....

Human reliability: an evaluation of its understanding and prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joksimovich, V.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a viewpoint on the state-of-the-art in human reliability. The bases for this viewpoint are, by and large, research projects conducted by the NUS for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) primarily with the objective of further enhancing the credibility of PRA methodology. The presentation is divided into the following key sections: Background and Overview, Methodology and Data Base with emphasis on the simulator data base

A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

2013-01-01

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2018-02-15

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

Reliability of application of inspection procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murgatroyd, R A

1988-12-31

This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC). 3 refs.

Reliability of application of inspection procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murgatroyd, R.A.

1988-01-01

This document deals with the reliability of application of inspection procedures. A method to ensure that the inspection of defects thanks to fracture mechanics is reliable is described. The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Analysis (SHERPA) methodology is applied to every task performed by the inspector to estimate the possibility of error. It appears that it is essential that inspection procedures should be sufficiently rigorous to avoid substantial errors, and that the selection procedures and the training period for inspectors should be optimised. (TEC)

A Reliability Generalization Study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Beretvas, S, Natasha; Meyers, Jason L.; Leite, Walter L.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalization study of the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (D. Crowne and D. Marlowe, 1960). Analysis of 93 studies show that the predicted score reliability for male adolescents was 0.53, and reliability for men's responses was lower than for women's. Discusses the need for further analysis of the scale. (SLD)

The value of 18F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossum, Peter S.N. van; Fried, David V.; Zhang, Lifei; Court, Laurence E.; Hofstetter, Wayne L.; Ho, Linus; Meijer, Gert J.; Carter, Brett W.; Lin, Steven H.

2017-01-01

The purpose of our study was to determine the value of 18 F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). In 70 consecutive patients receiving a three-step treatment strategy of induction chemotherapy and preoperative chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, 18 F-FDG PET scans were performed before and after induction chemotherapy (before preoperative CRT). SUV max , SUV mean , metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined at these two time points. The predictive potential of (the change in) these parameters for a poor pathologic response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed. A poor pathologic response after induction chemotherapy and preoperative CRT was found in 27 patients (39 %). Patients with a poor pathologic response experienced less of a reduction in TLG after induction chemotherapy (p < 0.01). The change in TLG was predictive for a poor pathologic response at a threshold of -26 % (sensitivity 67 %, specificity 84 %, accuracy 77 %, PPV 72 %, NPV 80 %), yielding an area-under-the-curve of 0.74 in ROC analysis. Also, patients with a decrease in TLG lower than 26 % had a significantly worse PFS (p = 0.02), but not OS (p = 0.18). 18 F-FDG PET appears useful to predict a poor pathologic response as well as PFS early after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma undergoing a three-step treatment strategy. As such, the early 18 F-FDG PET response after induction chemotherapy could aid in individualizing treatment by modification or withdrawal of subsequent preoperative CRT in poor responders. (orig.)

The Reliability of Individualized Load-Velocity Profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Banyard, Harry G; Nosaka, K; Vernon, Alex D; Haff, G Gregory

2017-11-15

This study examined the reliability of peak velocity (PV), mean propulsive velocity (MPV), and mean velocity (MV) in the development of load-velocity profiles (LVP) in the full depth free-weight back squat performed with maximal concentric effort. Eighteen resistance-trained men performed a baseline one-repetition maximum (1RM) back squat trial and three subsequent 1RM trials used for reliability analyses, with 48-hours interval between trials. 1RM trials comprised lifts from six relative loads including 20, 40, 60, 80, 90, and 100% 1RM. Individualized LVPs for PV, MPV, or MV were derived from loads that were highly reliable based on the following criteria: intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) >0.70, coefficient of variation (CV) ≤10%, and Cohen's d effect size (ES) 0.05) between trials, movement velocities, or between linear regression versus second order polynomial fits. PV 20-100% , MPV 20-90% , and MV 20-90% are reliable and can be utilized to develop LVPs using linear regression. Conceptually, LVPs can be used to monitor changes in movement velocity and employed as a method for adjusting sessional training loads according to daily readiness.

Reliability and relationship of radiographic measurements in hallux valgus.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyoung Min; Ahn, Soyeon; Chung, Chin Youb; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Park, Moon Seok

2012-09-01

Although various radiographic measurements have been developed and used for evaluating hallux valgus, not all are universally believed to be necessary and their relationships have not been clearly established. Determining which are related could provide some insight into which might be useful and which would not. We investigated the reliability of eight radiographic measurements used to evaluate hallux valgus, and determined which were correlated and which predicted the hallux valgus angle. We determined eight radiographic indices for 732 patients (mean age, 51 years; SD, 17 years; 107 males and 625 females) with hallux valgus: hallux valgus angle, intermetatarsal angle, hallux interphalangeal angle, distal metatarsal articular angle, proximal phalangeal articular angle, simplified metatarsus adductus angle, first metatarsal protrusion distance, and sesamoid rotation angle. Intraobserver and interobserver reliabilities of each radiographic measurement were analyzed on 36 feet from 36 randomly selected patients. Correlations among the radiographic measurements were analyzed. Radiographic measurements predicting hallux valgus angle were evaluated using multiple regression analysis. Hallux valgus angle had the highest reliability, whereas the distal metatarsal articular angle and simplified metatarsus adductus angle had the lowest. Distal metatarsal articular angle, intermetatarsal angle, and sesamoid rotation angle had the highest correlations with hallux valgus angle. Distal metatarsal articular angle correlated with sesamoid rotation angle. The intermetatarsal angle, interphalangeal angle, distal metatarsal articular angle, first metatarsal protrusion distance, sesamoid rotation angle, and metatarsus adductus angle predicted the hallux valgus angle. We suggest using hallux valgus angle, intermetatarsal angle, interphalangeal angle, sesamoid rotation angle, and first metatarsal protrusion distance considering their reliability and prediction of the deformity.

Serum interleukin -8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of vesicoureteral reflux in children with febrile urinary tract infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abolfazl Mahyar

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: In view of the side effects of voiding cystourethrography (VCUG, identification of noninvasive markers predicting the presence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR is important. This study was conducted to determine the predictive value of serum interleukin-8 (IL-8 in diagnosis of VUR in children with first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI. Materials and Methods: Eighty children with first febrile UTI were divided into two groups, with and without VUR, based on the results of VCUG. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value positive and negative likelihood ratio, and accuracy of IL-8 for prediction of VUR were investigated. Results: Of the 80 children with febrile UTI, 30 (37.5% had VUR. There was no significant difference between the children with and without VUR and also between low and high-grade VUR groups in terms of serum concentration of IL-8 (P>0.05. Based on ROC curve, the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio positive, and accuracy of serum IL-8 was lower than those of erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed significant positive correlation only between erythrocyte sedimentation rate and VUR. Conclusions: This study showed no significant difference between the children with and without VUR in terms of the serum concentration of IL-8. Therefore, it seems that serum IL-8 is not a reliable marker for prediction of VUR.

[Study of the relationship between human quality and reliability].

Science.gov (United States)

Long, S; Wang, C; Wang, L i; Yuan, J; Liu, H; Jiao, X

1997-02-01

To clarify the relationship between human quality and reliability, 1925 experiments in 20 subjects were carried out to study the relationship between disposition character, digital memory, graphic memory, multi-reaction time and education level and simulated aircraft operation. Meanwhile, effects of task difficulty and enviromental factor on human reliability were also studied. The results showed that human quality can be predicted and evaluated through experimental methods. The better the human quality, the higher the human reliability.

Applications of majorization and Schur functions in reliability and life testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proschan, F.

1975-01-01

This is an expository paper presenting basic definitions and properties of majorization and Schur functions, and displaying a variety of applications of these concepts in reliability prediction and modelling, and in reliability inference and life testing

Reliability program plan for the Isotope Brayton Ground Demonstration System (phase I)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-01-01

The reliability and quality assurance organizational relationships, the methods to be used, the tasks to be completed, and the documentation to be published are presented. The total program is intended to provide the necessary reliability and quality assurance associated with the design, fabrication, and testing of the GDS. It is consistent with the general objectives of the ERDA Quality Assurance (QA) program requirements document ''SNS-1'' dated April 1972 and reliability program requirements document ''SNS-2'' dated 17 June 1974 but has been specifically modified for the GDS with the intent of establishing background data for the subsequent Phase II effort

Reliability prediction for structures under cyclic loads and recurring inspections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto W. S. Mello Jr

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This work presents a methodology for determining the reliability of fracture control plans for structures subjected to cyclic loads. It considers the variability of the parameters involved in the problem, such as initial flaw and crack growth curve. The probability of detection (POD curve of the field non-destructive inspection method and the condition/environment are used as important factors for structural confidence. According to classical damage tolerance analysis (DTA, inspection intervals are based on detectable crack size and crack growth rate. However, all variables have uncertainties, which makes the final result totally stochastic. The material properties, flight loads, engineering tools and even the reliability of inspection methods are subject to uncertainties which can affect significantly the final maintenance schedule. The present methodology incorporates all the uncertainties in a simulation process, such as Monte Carlo, and establishes a relationship between the reliability of the overall maintenance program and the proposed inspection interval, forming a “cascade” chart. Due to the scatter, it also defines the confidence level of the “acceptable” risk. As an example, the damage tolerance analysis (DTA results are presented for the upper cockpit longeron splice bolt of the BAF upgraded F-5EM. In this case, two possibilities of inspection intervals were found: one that can be characterized as remote risk, with a probability of failure (integrity nonsuccess of 1 in 10 million, per flight hour; and other as extremely improbable, with a probability of nonsuccess of 1 in 1 billion, per flight hour, according to aviation standards. These two results are compared with the classical military airplane damage tolerance requirements.

Probabilistic Modeling of Updating Epistemic Uncertainty In Pile Capacity Prediction With a Single Failure Test Result

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indra Djati Sidi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The model error N has been introduced to denote the discrepancy between measured and predicted capacity of pile foundation. This model error is recognized as epistemic uncertainty in pile capacity prediction. The statistics of N have been evaluated based on data gathered from various sites and may be considered only as a eneral-error trend in capacity prediction, providing crude estimates of the model error in the absence of more specific data from the site. The results of even a single load test to failure, should provide direct evidence of the pile capacity at a given site. Bayes theorem has been used as a rational basis for combining new data with previous data to revise assessment of uncertainty and reliability. This study is devoted to the development of procedures for updating model error (N, and subsequently the predicted pile capacity with a results of single failure test.

Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

CERN Document Server

Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

2013-01-01

During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

Reliability Engineering Analysis of ATLAS Data Reprocessing Campaigns

CERN Document Server

Vaniachine, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Karpenko, D

2014-01-01

During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability...

Evaluation for nuclear safety-critical software reliability of DCS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Ying

2015-01-01

With the development of control and information technology at NPPs, software reliability is important because software failure is usually considered as one form of common cause failures in Digital I and C Systems (DCS). The reliability analysis of DCS, particularly qualitative and quantitative evaluation on the nuclear safety-critical software reliability belongs to a great challenge. To solve this problem, not only comprehensive evaluation model and stage evaluation models are built in this paper, but also prediction and sensibility analysis are given to the models. It can make besement for evaluating the reliability and safety of DCS. (author)

Application of fault tree analysis for customer reliability assessment of a distribution power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul Rahman, Fariz; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Lee, John C.

2013-01-01

A new method is developed for predicting customer reliability of a distribution power system using the fault tree approach with customer weighted values of component failure frequencies and downtimes. Conventional customer reliability prediction of the electric grid employs the system average (SA) component failure frequency and downtime that are weighted by only the quantity of the components in the system. These SA parameters are then used to calculate the reliability and availability of components in the system, and eventually to find the effect on customer reliability. Although this approach is intuitive, information is lost regarding customer disturbance experiences when customer information is not utilized in the SA parameter calculations, contributing to inaccuracies when predicting customer reliability indices in our study. Hence our new approach directly incorporates customer disturbance information in component failure frequency and downtime calculations by weighting these parameters with information of customer interruptions. This customer weighted (CW) approach significantly improves the prediction of customer reliability indices when applied to our reliability model with fault tree and two-state Markov chain formulations. Our method has been successfully applied to an actual distribution power system that serves over 2.1 million customers. Our results show an improved benchmarking performance on the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) by 26% between the SA-based and CW-based reliability calculations. - Highlights: ► We model the reliability of a power system with fault tree and two-state Markov chain. ► We propose using customer weighted component failure frequencies and downtimes. ► Results show customer weighted values perform superior to component average values. ► This method successfully incorporates customer disturbance information into the model.

A Method of Nuclear Software Reliability Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Gee Yong; Eom, Heung Seop; Cheon, Se Woo; Jang, Seung Cheol

2011-01-01

A method on estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM) where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow the non-homogeneous Poisson process. Several modeling schemes are presented in order to estimate and predict more precisely the number of software defects based on a few of software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating the software test cases into the model. It is identified that this method is capable of accurately estimating the remaining number of software defects which are on-demand type directly affecting safety trip functions. The software reliability can be estimated from a model equation and one method of obtaining the software reliability is proposed

Disjoint sum forms in reliability theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Anrig

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The structure function f of a binary monotone system is assumed to be known and given in a disjunctive normal form, i.e. as the logical union of products of the indicator variables of the states of its subsystems. Based on this representation of f, an improved Abraham algorithm is proposed for generating the disjoint sum form of f. This form is the base for subsequent numerical reliability calculations. The approach is generalized to multivalued systems. Examples are discussed.

Investigations and technical reviews on the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides (H15)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tachikawa, Hirokazu

2004-02-01

The research plan of the validation on effects of colloids and organic materials drawn up by the Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute and its' research outcome were reviewed comprehensively by an expert committee established in the Nuclear Safety Research Association. Additionally, experimental investigations for the migration behavior of actinide elements and fission products in engineering barrier and natural barrier medias, and for solution chemistry of them were carried out and discussed by the committee, in order to enhance the reliability of prediction for migration behavior of radionuclides. The subjects investigated by the expert committee are as follows: (1) Research on solubility products of An(III) hydroxide. (2) Diffusion and electromigration behavior of plutonium in buffer material. (3) Analysis of the nuclide solubility in compacted bentonite. (4) Survey of the actual contamination by alpha emitters in steel materials. (author)

Reliability in the design phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siahpush, A.S.; Hills, S.W.; Pham, H.; Majumdar, D.

1991-12-01

A study was performed to determine the common methods and tools that are available to calculated or predict a system's reliability. A literature review and software survey are included. The desired product of this developmental work is a tool for the system designer to use in the early design phase so that the final design will achieve the desired system reliability without lengthy testing and rework. Three computer programs were written which provide the first attempt at fulfilling this need. The programs are described and a case study is presented for each one. This is a continuing effort which will be furthered in FY-1992. 10 refs

Predictive modeling of gingivitis severity and susceptibility via oral microbiota.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Shi; Li, Rui; Zeng, Xiaowei; He, Tao; Zhao, Helen; Chang, Alice; Bo, Cunpei; Chen, Jie; Yang, Fang; Knight, Rob; Liu, Jiquan; Davis, Catherine; Xu, Jian

2014-09-01

Predictive modeling of human disease based on the microbiota holds great potential yet remains challenging. Here, 50 adults underwent controlled transitions from naturally occurring gingivitis, to healthy gingivae (baseline), and to experimental gingivitis (EG). In diseased plaque microbiota, 27 bacterial genera changed in relative abundance and functional genes including 33 flagellar biosynthesis-related groups were enriched. Plaque microbiota structure exhibited a continuous gradient along the first principal component, reflecting transition from healthy to diseased states, which correlated with Mazza Gingival Index. We identified two host types with distinct gingivitis sensitivity. Our proposed microbial indices of gingivitis classified host types with 74% reliability, and, when tested on another 41-member cohort, distinguished healthy from diseased individuals with 95% accuracy. Furthermore, the state of the microbiota in naturally occurring gingivitis predicted the microbiota state and severity of subsequent EG (but not the state of the microbiota during the healthy baseline period). Because the effect of disease is greater than interpersonal variation in plaque, in contrast to the gut, plaque microbiota may provide advantages in predictive modeling of oral diseases.

Proof tests on reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, Yoshitsugu

1983-01-01

In order to obtain public understanding on nuclear power plants, tests should be carried out to prove the reliability and safety of present LWR plants. For example, the aseismicity of nuclear power plants must be verified by using a large scale earthquake simulator. Reliability test began in fiscal 1975, and the proof tests on steam generators and on PWR support and flexure pins against stress corrosion cracking have already been completed, and the results have been internationally highly appreciated. The capacity factor of the nuclear power plant operation in Japan rose to 80% in the summer of 1983, and considering the period of regular inspection, it means the operation of almost full capacity. Japanese LWR technology has now risen to the top place in the world after having overcome the defects. The significance of the reliability test is to secure the functioning till the age limit is reached, to confirm the correct forecast of deteriorating process, to confirm the effectiveness of the remedy to defects and to confirm the accuracy of predicting the behavior of facilities. The reliability of nuclear valves, fuel assemblies, the heat affected zones in welding, reactor cooling pumps and electric instruments has been tested or is being tested. (Kako, I.)

The importance of reliability to the SunShot Initiative (Presentation Recording)

Science.gov (United States)

Jones-Albertus, Rebecca

2015-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative was launched in 2011 to make subsidy-free solar electricity cost competitive with conventional energy sources by the end of the decade. Research in reliability can play a major role in realizing the SunShot goal of 0.06/kWh. By improving photovoltaic module lifetime and reducing degradation rates, a system's lifetime energy output is increased. Increasing confidence in photovoltaic performance prediction can lower perceived investment risk and thus the cost of capital. Accordingly, in 2015, SunShot expects to award more than $40 million through its SunShot National Laboratory Multiyear Partnership (SuNLaMP) and Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) 2 funding programs, for research into reliability topics such as determining acceleration factors, modeling degradation rates and failure mechanisms, improving predictive performance models, and developing new test methods and instrumentation.

The influence of children's pain memories on subsequent pain experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Melanie; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Klein, Raymond M; Stewart, Sherry H

2012-08-01

Healthy children are often required to repeatedly undergo painful medical procedures (eg, immunizations). Although memory is often implicated in children's reactions to future pain, there is a dearth of research directly examining the relationship between the 2. The current study investigated the influence of children's memories for a novel pain stimulus on their subsequent pain experience. One hundred ten healthy children (60 boys) between the ages of 8 and 12 years completed a laboratory pain task and provided pain ratings. Two weeks later, children provided pain ratings based on their memories as well as their expectancies about future pain. One month following the initial laboratory visit, children again completed the pain task and provided pain ratings. Results showed that children's memory of pain intensity was a better predictor of subsequent pain reporting than their actual initial reporting of pain intensity, and mediated the relationship between initial and subsequent pain reporting. Children who had negatively estimated pain memories developed expectations of greater pain prior to a subsequent pain experience and showed greater increases in pain ratings over time than children who had accurate or positively estimated pain memories. These findings highlight the influence of pain memories on healthy children's expectations of future pain and subsequent pain experiences and extend predictive models of subsequent pain reporting. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kryjov, Vladimir N

2012-01-01

An overview of the current status of the operational seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia is presented. It is shown that the performance of existing climate models is rather poor in seasonal prediction for North Eurasia. Multi-model ensemble forecasts are more reliable than single-model ones; however, for North Eurasia they tend to be close to climatological ones. Application of downscaling methods may improve predictions for some locations (or regions). However, general improvement of the reliability of seasonal forecasts for North Eurasia requires improvement of the climate prediction models. (letter)

Toward Predictive Theories of Nuclear Reactions Across the Isotopic Chart: Web Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Escher, J. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Blackmon, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Elster, C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Launey, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lee, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Scielzo, N. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-05-12

Recent years have seen exciting new developments and progress in nuclear structure theory, reaction theory, and experimental techniques, that allow us to move towards a description of exotic systems and environments, setting the stage for new discoveries. The purpose of the 5-week program was to bring together physicists from the low-energy nuclear structure and reaction communities to identify avenues for achieving reliable and predictive descriptions of reactions involving nuclei across the isotopic chart. The 4-day embedded workshop focused on connecting theory developments to experimental advances and data needs for astrophysics and other applications. Nuclear theory must address phenomena from laboratory experiments to stellar environments, from stable nuclei to weakly-bound and exotic isotopes. Expanding the reach of theory to these regimes requires a comprehensive understanding of the reaction mechanisms involved as well as detailed knowledge of nuclear structure. A recurring theme throughout the program was the desire to produce reliable predictions rooted in either ab initio or microscopic approaches. At the same time it was recognized that some applications involving heavy nuclei away from stability, e.g. those involving fi ssion fragments, may need to rely on simple parameterizations of incomplete data for the foreseeable future. The goal here, however, is to subsequently improve and refine the descriptions, moving to phenomenological, then microscopic approaches. There was overarching consensus that future work should also focus on reliable estimates of errors in theoretical descriptions.

Further HTGR core support structure reliability studies. Interim report No. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Platus, D.L.

1976-01-01

Results of a continuing effort to investigate high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) core support structure reliability are described. Graphite material and core support structure component physical, mechanical and strength properties required for the reliability analysis are identified. Also described are experimental and associated analytical techniques for determining the required properties, a procedure for determining number of tests required, properties that might be monitored by special surveillance of the core support structure to improve reliability predictions, and recommendations for further studies. Emphasis in the study is directed towards developing a basic understanding of graphite failure and strength degradation mechanisms; and validating analytical methods for predicting strength and strength degradation from basic material properties

Influences on the Test-Retest Reliability of Functional Connectivity MRI and its Relationship with Behavioral Utility.

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Stephanie; Spann, Marisa N; Tokoglu, Fuyuze; Shen, Xilin; Constable, R Todd; Scheinost, Dustin

2017-11-01

Best practices are currently being developed for the acquisition and processing of resting-state magnetic resonance imaging data used to estimate brain functional organization-or "functional connectivity." Standards have been proposed based on test-retest reliability, but open questions remain. These include how amount of data per subject influences whole-brain reliability, the influence of increasing runs versus sessions, the spatial distribution of reliability, the reliability of multivariate methods, and, crucially, how reliability maps onto prediction of behavior. We collected a dataset of 12 extensively sampled individuals (144 min data each across 2 identically configured scanners) to assess test-retest reliability of whole-brain connectivity within the generalizability theory framework. We used Human Connectome Project data to replicate these analyses and relate reliability to behavioral prediction. Overall, the historical 5-min scan produced poor reliability averaged across connections. Increasing the number of sessions was more beneficial than increasing runs. Reliability was lowest for subcortical connections and highest for within-network cortical connections. Multivariate reliability was greater than univariate. Finally, reliability could not be used to improve prediction; these findings are among the first to underscore this distinction for functional connectivity. A comprehensive understanding of test-retest reliability, including its limitations, supports the development of best practices in the field. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Effects of Mother-Infant Social Interactions on Infants' Subsequent Contingency Task Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunham, Philip; Dunham, Frances

1990-01-01

Infants participated in a nonsocial contingency task immediately after a social interaction with their mothers. The amount of time mothers and infants spent in a state of vocal turn-taking predicted individual differences in infants' subsequent performance on the contingency task. (PCB)

Reliability analysis of reactor protection systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsan, S.

1976-07-01

A theoretical mathematical study of reliability is presented and the concepts subsequently defined applied to the study of nuclear reactor safety systems. The theory is applied to investigations of the operational reliability of the Siloe reactor from the point of view of rod drop. A statistical study conducted between 1964 and 1971 demonstrated that most rod drop incidents arose from circumstances associated with experimental equipment (new set-ups). The reliability of the most suitable safety system for some recently developed experimental equipment is discussed. Calculations indicate that if all experimental equipment were equipped with these new systems, only 1.75 rod drop accidents would be expected to occur per year on average. It is suggested that all experimental equipment should be equipped with these new safety systems and tested every 21 days. The reliability of the new safety system currently being studied for the Siloe reactor was also investigated. The following results were obtained: definite failures must be detected immediately as a result of the disturbances produced; the repair time must not exceed a few hours; the equipment must be tested every week. Under such conditions, the rate of accidental rod drops is about 0.013 on average per year. The level of nondefinite failures is less than 10 -6 per hour and the level of nonprotection 1 hour per year. (author)

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas.

Science.gov (United States)

Kessler, R C; Aguilar-Gaxiola, S; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Gureje, O; Karam, E G; Koenen, K C; Lee, S; Liu, H; Pennell, B-E; Petukhova, M V; Sampson, N A; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Atwoli, L; Borges, G; Bunting, B; de Girolamo, G; Gluzman, S F; Haro, J M; Hinkov, H; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, V; Navarro-Mateu, F; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A Y; Ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-09-19

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 19 September 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.194.

Reliability Analysis of Safety Grade PLC(POSAFE-Q) for Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. Y.; Lyou, J.; Lee, D. Y.; Choi, J. G.; Park, W. M.

2006-01-01

The Part Count Method of the military standard MILHDK- 217F has been used for the reliability prediction of the nuclear field. This handbook determines the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) failure rate by summing the failure rates of the individual component included in the PLC. Normally it is easily predictable that the components added for the fault detection improve the reliability of the PLC. But the application of this handbook is estimated with poor reliability because of the increased component number for the fault detection. To compensate this discrepancy, the quantitative reliability analysis method is suggested using the functional separation model in this paper. And it is applied to the Reactor Protection System (RPS) being developed in Korea to identify any design weak points from a safety point of view

Reliability and Validity of the Work and Well-Being Inventory (WBI) for Employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Vendrig, A A; Schaafsma, F G

2018-06-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to measure the psychometric properties of the Work and Wellbeing Inventory (WBI) (in Dutch: VAR-2), a screening tool that is used within occupational health care and rehabilitation. Our research question focused on the reliability and validity of this inventory. Methods Over the years seven different samples of workers, patients and sick listed workers varying in size between 89 and 912 participants (total: 2514), were used to measure the test-retest reliability, the internal consistency, the construct and concurrent validity, and the criterion and predictive validity. Results The 13 scales displayed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The constructive validity of the WBI could clearly be demonstrated in both patients and healthy workers. Confirmative factor analyses revealed a CFI >.90 for all scales. The depression scale predicted future work absenteeism (>6 weeks) because of a common mental disorder in healthy workers. The job strain scale and the illness behavior scale predicted long term absenteeism (>3 months) in workers with short-term absenteeism. The illness behavior scale moderately predicted return to work in rehab patients attending an intensive multidisciplinary program. Conclusions The WBI is a valid and reliable tool for occupational health practitioners to screen for risk factors for prolonged or future sickness absence. With this tool they will have reliable indications for further advice and interventions to restore the work ability.

Single-leg lateral, horizontal, and vertical jump assessment: reliability, interrelationships, and ability to predict sprint and change-of-direction performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Meylan, Cesar; McMaster, Travis; Cronin, John; Mohammad, Nur Ikhwan; Rogers, Cailyn; Deklerk, Melissa

2009-07-01

The purposes of this study were to determine the reliability of unilateral vertical, horizontal, and lateral countermovement jump assessments, the interrelationship between these tests, and their usefulness as predictors of sprint (10 m) and change-of-direction (COD) performance for 80 men and women physical education students. Jump performance was assessed on a contact mat and sprint, and COD performances were assessed using timing lights. With regard to the reliability statistics, the largest coefficient of variation (CV) was observed for the vertical jump (CV = 6.7-7.2%) of both genders, whereas the sprint and COD assessments had smallest variability (CV = 0.8 to 2.8%). All intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were greater than 0.85, except for the men's COD assessment with the alternate leg. The shared variance between the single-leg vertical, horizontal, and lateral jumps for men and women was less than 50%, indicating that the jumps are relatively independent of one another and represent different leg strength/power qualities. The ability of the jumps to predict sprint and COD performance was limited (R2 < 43%). It would seem that the ability to change direction with 1 leg is relatively independent of a COD with the other leg, especially in the women (R < 30%) of this study. However, if 1 jump assessment were selected to predict sprint and COD performance in a test battery, the single-leg horizontal countermovement jump would seem the logical choice, given the results of this study. Many of the findings in this study have interesting diagnostic and training implications for the strength and conditioning coach.

Equipment Reliability Program in NPP Krsko

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skaler, F.; Djetelic, N.

2006-01-01

Operation that is safe, reliable, effective and acceptable to public is the common message in a mission statement of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To fulfill these goals, nuclear industry, among other areas, has to focus on: 1 Human Performance (HU) and 2 Equipment Reliability (EQ). The performance objective of HU is as follows: The behaviors of all personnel result in safe and reliable station operation. While unwanted human behaviors in operations mostly result directly in the event, the behavior flaws either in the area of maintenance or engineering usually cause decreased equipment reliability. Unsatisfied Human performance leads even the best designed power plants into significant operating events, which can be found as well-known examples in nuclear industry. Equipment reliability is today recognized as the key to success. While the human performance at most NPPs has been improving since the start of WANO / INPO / IAEA evaluations, the open energy market has forced the nuclear plants to reduce production costs and operate more reliably and effectively. The balance between these two (opposite) goals has made equipment reliability even more important for safe, reliable and efficient production. Insisting on on-line operation by ignoring some principles of safety could nowadays in a well-developed safety culture and human performance environment exceed the cost of electricity losses. In last decade the leading USA nuclear companies put a lot of effort to improve equipment reliability primarily based on INPO Equipment Reliability Program AP-913 at their NPP stations. The Equipment Reliability Program is the key program not only for safe and reliable operation, but also for the Life Cycle Management and Aging Management on the way to the nuclear power plant life extension. The purpose of Equipment Reliability process is to identify, organize, integrate and coordinate equipment reliability activities (preventive and predictive maintenance, maintenance

Reliability engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaniachine, A; Golubkov, D; Karpenko, D

2014-01-01

During three years of LHC data taking, the ATLAS collaboration completed three petascale data reprocessing campaigns on the Grid, with up to 2 PB of data being reprocessed every year. In reprocessing on the Grid, failures can occur for a variety of reasons, while Grid heterogeneity makes failures hard to diagnose and repair quickly. As a result, Big Data processing on the Grid must tolerate a continuous stream of failures, errors and faults. While ATLAS fault-tolerance mechanisms improve the reliability of Big Data processing in the Grid, their benefits come at costs and result in delays making the performance prediction difficult. Reliability Engineering provides a framework for fundamental understanding of the Big Data processing on the Grid, which is not a desirable enhancement but a necessary requirement. In ATLAS, cost monitoring and performance prediction became critical for the success of the reprocessing campaigns conducted in preparation for the major physics conferences. In addition, our Reliability Engineering approach supported continuous improvements in data reprocessing throughput during LHC data taking. The throughput doubled in 2011 vs. 2010 reprocessing, then quadrupled in 2012 vs. 2011 reprocessing. We present the Reliability Engineering analysis of ATLAS data reprocessing campaigns providing the foundation needed to scale up the Big Data processing technologies beyond the petascale.

Reducing Reliability Uncertainties for Marine Renewable Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sam D. Weller

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs are a widely used metric of technology maturity and risk for marine renewable energy (MRE devices. To-date, a large number of device concepts have been proposed which have reached the early validation stages of development (TRLs 1–3. Only a handful of mature designs have attained pre-commercial development status following prototype sea trials (TRLs 7–8. In order to navigate through the aptly named “valley of death” (TRLs 4–6 towards commercial realisation, it is necessary for new technologies to be de-risked in terms of component durability and reliability. In this paper the scope of the reliability assessment module of the DTOcean Design Tool is outlined including aspects of Tool integration, data provision and how prediction uncertainties are accounted for. In addition, two case studies are reported of mooring component fatigue testing providing insight into long-term component use and system design for MRE devices. The case studies are used to highlight how test data could be utilised to improve the prediction capabilities of statistical reliability assessment approaches, such as the bottom–up statistical method.

Reliability and Validity of Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, Japanese Version

Science.gov (United States)

Tsuchiya, Kenji J.; Matsumoto, Kaori; Yagi, Atsuko; Inada, Naoko; Kuroda, Miho; Inokuchi, Eiko; Koyama, Tomonori; Kamio, Yoko; Tsujii, Masatsugu; Sakai, Saeko; Mohri, Ikuko; Taniike, Masako; Iwanaga, Ryoichiro; Ogasahara, Kei; Miyachi, Taishi; Nakajima, Shunji; Tani, Iori; Ohnishi, Masafumi; Inoue, Masahiko; Nomura, Kazuyo; Hagiwara, Taku; Uchiyama, Tokio; Ichikawa, Hironobu; Kobayashi, Shuji; Miyamoto, Ken; Nakamura, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuaki; Mori, Norio; Takei, Nori

2013-01-01

To examine the inter-rater reliability of Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, Japanese Version (ADI-R-JV), the authors recruited 51 individuals aged 3-19 years, interviewed by two independent raters. Subsequently, to assess the discriminant and diagnostic validity of ADI-R-JV, the authors investigated 317 individuals aged 2-19 years, who were…

Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Subsequently, Bayesian methodologies are framed in an ampler problem list, based on the definition of an opportune "vector of state" and of a vector describing the system performances, aiming to the definition and the calculation or the estimation of system reliability. The purpose of our work is to establish a useful model ...

Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zbynek Martinek

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Fuller, Raymond P.

2011-01-01

Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

Web server's reliability improvements using recurrent neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Rǎzvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe an interesting approach to error prediction illustrated by experimental results. The application consists of monitoring the activity for the web servers in order to collect the specific data. Predicting an error with severe consequences for the performance of a server (t...... usage, network usage and memory usage. We collect different data sets from monitoring the web server's activity and for each one we predict the server's reliability with the proposed recurrent neural network. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group...

An integrated approach to estimate storage reliability with initial failures based on E-Bayesian estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yongjin; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Shitao; Wang, Jiamei; Zhang, Yanjun

2017-01-01

Storage reliability that measures the ability of products in a dormant state to keep their required functions is studied in this paper. For certain types of products, Storage reliability may not always be 100% at the beginning of storage, unlike the operational reliability, which exist possible initial failures that are normally neglected in the models of storage reliability. In this paper, a new integrated technique, the non-parametric measure based on the E-Bayesian estimates of current failure probabilities is combined with the parametric measure based on the exponential reliability function, is proposed to estimate and predict the storage reliability of products with possible initial failures, where the non-parametric method is used to estimate the number of failed products and the reliability at each testing time, and the parameter method is used to estimate the initial reliability and the failure rate of storage product. The proposed method has taken into consideration that, the reliability test data of storage products containing the unexamined before and during the storage process, is available for providing more accurate estimates of both the initial failure probability and the storage failure probability. When storage reliability prediction that is the main concern in this field should be made, the non-parametric estimates of failure numbers can be used into the parametric models for the failure process in storage. In the case of exponential models, the assessment and prediction method for storage reliability is presented in this paper. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the method. Furthermore, a detailed comparison between the proposed and traditional method, for examining the rationality of assessment and prediction on the storage reliability, is investigated. The results should be useful for planning a storage environment, decision-making concerning the maximum length of storage, and identifying the production quality. - Highlights: �

Encoded exposure to tobacco use in social media predicts subsequent smoking behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Depue, Jacob B; Southwell, Brian G; Betzner, Anne E; Walsh, Barbara M

2015-01-01

Assessing the potential link between smoking behavior and exposure to mass media depictions of smoking on social networking Web sites. A representative longitudinal panel of 200 young adults in Connecticut. Telephone surveys were conducted by using computer assisted telephone interviewing technology and electronic dialing for random digit dialing and listed samples. Connecticut residents aged 18 to 24 years. To measure encoded exposure, respondents were asked whether or not they had smoked a cigarette in the past 30 days and about how often they had seen tobacco use on television, in movies, and in social media content. Respondents were also asked about cigarette use in the past 30 days, and a series of additional questions that have been shown to be predictive of tobacco use. Logistic regression was used to test for our main prediction that reported exposure to social media tobacco depictions at time 1 would influence time 2 smoking behavior. Encoded exposure to social media tobacco depictions (B = .47, p media depictions of tobacco use predict future smoking tendency, over and above the influence of TV and movie depictions of smoking. This is the first known study to specifically assess the role of social media in informing tobacco behavior.

Does early improvement in depressive symptoms predict subsequent remission in patients with depression who are treated with duloxetine?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sueki A

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Akitsugu Sueki, Eriko Suzuki, Hitoshi Takahashi, Jun Ishigooka Department of Neuropsychiatry, Tokyo Women’s Medical University, Tokyo, Japan Purpose: In this prospective study, we examined whether early reduction in depressive symptoms predicts later remission to duloxetine in the treatment of depression, as monitored using the Montgomery–Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS. Patients and methods: Among the 106 patients who were enrolled in this study, 67 were included in the statistical analysis. A clinical evaluation using the MADRS was performed at weeks 0, 4, 8, 12, and 16 after commencing treatment. For each time point, the MADRS total score was separated into three components: dysphoria, retardation, and vegetative scores. Results: Remission was defined as an MADRS total score of ≤10 at end point. From our univariate logistic regression analysis, we found that improvements in both the MADRS total score and the dysphoria score at week 4 had a significant interaction with subsequent remission. Furthermore, age and sex were significant predictors of remission. There was an increase of approximately 4% in the odds of remission for each unit increase in age, and female sex had an odds of remission of 0.318 times that of male sex (remission rate for men was 73.1% [19/26] and for women 46.3% [19/41]. However, in the multivariate model using the change from baseline in the total MADRS, dysphoria, retardation, and vegetative scores at week 4, in which age and sex were included as covariates, only sex retained significance, except for an improvement in the dysphoria score. Conclusion: No significant interaction was found between early response to duloxetine and eventual remission in this study. Sex difference was found to be a predictor of subsequent remission in patients with depression who were treated with duloxetine, with the male sex having greater odds of remission. Keywords: antidepressant, early response, sex difference, serotonin�

The value of {sup 18}F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rossum, Peter S.N. van [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Houston, TX (United States); University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiation Oncology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Fried, David V.; Zhang, Lifei; Court, Laurence E. [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Physics, Houston, TX (United States); Hofstetter, Wayne L. [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Houston, TX (United States); Ho, Linus [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, Houston, TX (United States); Meijer, Gert J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiation Oncology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Carter, Brett W. [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Houston, TX (United States); Lin, Steven H. [The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Houston, TX (United States)

2017-01-15

The purpose of our study was to determine the value of {sup 18}F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). In 70 consecutive patients receiving a three-step treatment strategy of induction chemotherapy and preoperative chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, {sup 18}F-FDG PET scans were performed before and after induction chemotherapy (before preoperative CRT). SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub mean}, metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined at these two time points. The predictive potential of (the change in) these parameters for a poor pathologic response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed. A poor pathologic response after induction chemotherapy and preoperative CRT was found in 27 patients (39 %). Patients with a poor pathologic response experienced less of a reduction in TLG after induction chemotherapy (p < 0.01). The change in TLG was predictive for a poor pathologic response at a threshold of -26 % (sensitivity 67 %, specificity 84 %, accuracy 77 %, PPV 72 %, NPV 80 %), yielding an area-under-the-curve of 0.74 in ROC analysis. Also, patients with a decrease in TLG lower than 26 % had a significantly worse PFS (p = 0.02), but not OS (p = 0.18). {sup 18}F-FDG PET appears useful to predict a poor pathologic response as well as PFS early after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma undergoing a three-step treatment strategy. As such, the early {sup 18}F-FDG PET response after induction chemotherapy could aid in individualizing treatment by modification or withdrawal of subsequent preoperative CRT in poor responders. (orig.)

A general software reliability process simulation technique

Science.gov (United States)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1991-01-01

The structure and rationale of the generalized software reliability process, together with the design and implementation of a computer program that simulates this process are described. Given assumed parameters of a particular project, the users of this program are able to generate simulated status timelines of work products, numbers of injected anomalies, and the progress of testing, fault isolation, repair, validation, and retest. Such timelines are useful in comparison with actual timeline data, for validating the project input parameters, and for providing data for researchers in reliability prediction modeling.

Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brøndum, Rasmus Froberg; Su, Guosheng; Janss, Luc

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected...... with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index...... itself. Depending on the trait’s economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage...

Airline experience with reliability-centered maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matteson, T.D.

1985-01-01

Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a process for developing preventive maintenance programs. Its concepts evolved from the post WWII experience of the airline community. Its genesis was in a paper by F. Stanley Nowlan and Thomas D. Matteson of United Airlines for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 1967. Its first application was to the Boeing 747. It has subsequently been adopted by the FAA and the Department of Defense and applied to many new transport and military aircraft. Its objective is applicable and effective preventive maintenance and it has proven to be a highly effective replacement for the prior intuitive processes for selective preventive maintenance tasks. It focuses on system functions, functional failures, then dominant failure modes and effects. It then uses a decision tree to classify failure criticality and identify applicable and effective tasks. The result is a program focused on maintaining inherent safety and reliability at minimum cost. (orig.)

Airline experience with reliability-centered maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matteson, T.D.

1985-11-01

Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a process for developing preventive maintenance programs. Its concepts evolved from the post WWII experience of the airline community. Its genesis was in a paper by F. Stanley Nowlan and Thomas D. Matteson of United Airlines for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 1967. Its first application was to the Boeing 747. It has subsequently been adopted by the FAA and the Department of Defense and applied to many new transport and military aircraft. Its objective is applicable and effective preventive maintenance and it has proven to be a highly effective replacement for the prior intuitive processes for selective preventive maintenance tasks. It focuses on system functions, functional failures, then dominant failure modes and effects. It then uses a decision tree to classify failure criticality and identify applicable and effective tasks. The result is a program focused on maintaining inherent safety and reliability at minimum cost. (orig.).

Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tee, Kong Fah; Khan, Lutfor Rahman; Li, Hongshuang

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction

Modulation of fusiform cortex activity by cholinesterase inhibition predicts effects on subsequent memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, P; Driver, J; Dolan, R J

2009-09-01

Cholinergic influences on memory are likely to be expressed at several processing stages, including via well-recognized effects of acetylcholine on stimulus processing during encoding. Since previous studies have shown that cholinesterase inhibition enhances visual extrastriate cortex activity during stimulus encoding, especially under attention-demanding tasks, we tested whether this effect correlates with improved subsequent memory. In a within-subject physostigmine versus placebo design, we measured brain activity with functional magnetic resonance imaging while healthy and mild Alzheimer's disease subjects performed superficial and deep encoding tasks on face (and building) visual stimuli. We explored regions in which physostigmine modulation of face-selective neural responses correlated with physostigmine effects on subsequent recognition performance. In healthy subjects physostigmine led to enhanced later recognition for deep- versus superficially-encoded faces, which correlated across subjects with a physostigmine-induced enhancement of face-selective responses in right fusiform cortex during deep- versus superficial-encoding tasks. In contrast, the Alzheimer's disease group showed neither a depth of processing effect nor restoration of this with physostigmine. Instead, patients showed a task-independent improvement in confident memory with physostigmine, an effect that correlated with enhancements in face-selective (but task-independent) responses in bilateral fusiform cortices. Our results indicate that one mechanism by which cholinesterase inhibitors can improve memory is by enhancing extrastriate cortex stimulus selectivity at encoding, in a manner that for healthy people but not in Alzheimer's disease is dependent upon depth of processing.

Complex proximal humerus fractures: Hertel's criteria reliability to predict head necrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Campochiaro, G; Rebuzzi, M; Baudi, P; Catani, F

2015-09-01

The risk of post-traumatic humeral head avascular necrosis (AVN), regardless of the treatment, has a high reported incidence. In 2004, Hertel et al. stated that the most relevant predictors of ischemia after intracapsular fracture treated with osteosynthesis are the calcar length, medial hinge integrity and some specific fracture types. Based on Hertel's model, the purpose of this study is to evaluate both its reliability and weaknesses in our series of 267 fractures, assessing how the anatomical configuration of fracture, the quality of reduction and its maintenance were predictive of osteonecrosis development, and so to suggest a treatment choice algorithm. A retrospective study, level of evidence IV, was conducted to duly assess the radiographic features of 267 fractures treated from 2004 to 2010 following Hertel's criteria treated with open reduction and internal fixation by angular stability plates and screws. The average age was 65.2 years. The average follow-up was 28.3 ± 17.0 months. The percentage of AVN, the quality and maintenance of reduction obtained during surgery were evaluated. The AVN incidence was 3.7 %. No significant correlation with gender, age and fracture type was found. At the last follow-up X-ray, only 30 % presented all Hertel's good predictors in the AVN group, 4.7 % in the non-AVN group (p AVN group, it was poor in 50 %; while in the non-AVN group, it was poor in 3.4 % (p AVN were symptomatic, and three needed a second surgery. Hertel's criteria are important in the surgical planning, but they are not sufficient: an accurate evaluation of the calcar area fracture in three planes is required. All fractures involving calcar area should be studied with CT.

Proceedings of the SRESA national conference on reliability and safety engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varde, P.V.; Vaishnavi, P.; Sujatha, S.; Valarmathi, A.

2014-01-01

The objective of this conference was to provide a forum for technical discussions on recent developments in the area of risk based approach and Prognostic Health Management of critical systems in decision making. The reliability and safety engineering methods are concerned with the way which the product fails, and the effects of failure is to understand how a product works and assures acceptable levels of safety. The reliability engineering addresses all the anticipated and possibly unanticipated causes of failure to ensure the occurrence of failure is prevented or minimized. The topics discussed in the conference were: Reliability in Engineering Design, Safety Assessment and Management, Reliability analysis and Assessment , Stochastic Petri nets for reliability Modeling, Dynamic Reliability, Reliability Prediction, Hardware Reliability, Software Reliability in Safety Critical Issues, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Risk Informed Approach, Dynamic Models for Reliability Analysis, Reliability based Design and Analysis, Prognostics and Health Management, Remaining Useful Life (RUL), Human Reliability Modeling, Risk Based Applications, Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP), Reliability in Network Security and Quality Assurance and Management etc. The papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activation Is Associated with Memory Formation for Predictable Rewards

Science.gov (United States)

Bialleck, Katharina A.; Schaal, Hans-Peter; Kranz, Thorsten A.; Fell, Juergen; Elger, Christian E.; Axmacher, Nikolai

2011-01-01

During reinforcement learning, dopamine release shifts from the moment of reward consumption to the time point when the reward can be predicted. Previous studies provide consistent evidence that reward-predicting cues enhance long-term memory (LTM) formation of these items via dopaminergic projections to the ventral striatum. However, it is less clear whether memory for items that do not precede a reward but are directly associated with reward consumption is also facilitated. Here, we investigated this question in an fMRI paradigm in which LTM for reward-predicting and neutral cues was compared to LTM for items presented during consumption of reliably predictable as compared to less predictable rewards. We observed activation of the ventral striatum and enhanced memory formation during reward anticipation. During processing of less predictable as compared to reliably predictable rewards, the ventral striatum was activated as well, but items associated with less predictable outcomes were remembered worse than items associated with reliably predictable outcomes. Processing of reliably predictable rewards activated the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), and vmPFC BOLD responses were associated with successful memory formation of these items. Taken together, these findings show that consumption of reliably predictable rewards facilitates LTM formation and is associated with activation of the vmPFC. PMID:21326612

Human reliability analysis of control room operators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2005-07-01

Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

2017-09-01

A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

Quantifiable and Reliable Structural Health Management Systems, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Major concerns for implementing a practical built-in structural health monitoring system are prediction accuracy and data reliability. It is proposed to develop...

Semiconductor measurement technology: reliability technology for cardiac pacemakers 2: a workshop report, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schafft, H.A.

1977-01-01

Summaries are presented of 12 invited talks on the following topics: the procurement and assurance of high reliability electronic parts, leak rate and moisture measurements, pacemaker batteries, and pacemaker leads. The workshop, second in a series, was held in response to strong interest expressed by the pacemaker community to address technical questions relevant to the enhancement and assurance of cardiac pacemaker reliability. Discussed at the workshop were a process validation wafer concept for assuring process uniformity in device chips; screen tests for assuring reliable electronic parts; reliability prediction; reliability comparison of semiconductor technologies; mechanisms of short-circuiting dendritic growths; details of helium and radioisotope leak test methods; a study to correlate package leak rates, as measured with test gasses, and actual moisture infusion; battery life prediction; microcalorimetric measurements to nondestructively evaluate batteries for pacemakers; and an engineer's and a physician's view of the present status of pacemaker leads. References are included with most of the reports

Reliability Estimation for Single-unit Ceramic Crown Restorations

Science.gov (United States)

Lekesiz, H.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of a survival prediction method for the assessment of ceramic dental restorations. For this purpose, fast-fracture and fatigue reliabilities for 2 bilayer (metal ceramic alloy core veneered with fluorapatite leucite glass-ceramic, d.Sign/d.Sign-67, by Ivoclar; glass-infiltrated alumina core veneered with feldspathic porcelain, VM7/In-Ceram Alumina, by Vita) and 3 monolithic (leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic, Empress, and ProCAD, by Ivoclar; lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic, Empress 2, by Ivoclar) single posterior crown restorations were predicted, and fatigue predictions were compared with the long-term clinical data presented in the literature. Both perfectly bonded and completely debonded cases were analyzed for evaluation of the influence of the adhesive/restoration bonding quality on estimations. Material constants and stress distributions required for predictions were calculated from biaxial tests and finite element analysis, respectively. Based on the predictions, In-Ceram Alumina presents the best fast-fracture resistance, and ProCAD presents a comparable resistance for perfect bonding; however, ProCAD shows a significant reduction of resistance in case of complete debonding. Nevertheless, it is still better than Empress and comparable with Empress 2. In-Ceram Alumina and d.Sign have the highest long-term reliability, with almost 100% survivability even after 10 years. When compared with clinical failure rates reported in the literature, predictions show a promising match with clinical data, and this indicates the soundness of the settings used in the proposed predictions. PMID:25048249

Automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Jamal, S.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Vibert, D.; Schmitt, A.; Surace, C.; Copin, Y.; Garilli, B.; Moresco, M.; Pozzetti, L.

2018-03-01

Context. Future large-scale surveys, such as the ESA Euclid mission, will produce a large set of galaxy redshifts (≥106) that will require fully automated data-processing pipelines to analyze the data, extract crucial information and ensure that all requirements are met. A fundamental element in these pipelines is to associate to each galaxy redshift measurement a quality, or reliability, estimate. Aim. In this work, we introduce a new approach to automate the spectroscopic redshift reliability assessment based on machine learning (ML) and characteristics of the redshift probability density function. Methods: We propose to rephrase the spectroscopic redshift estimation into a Bayesian framework, in order to incorporate all sources of information and uncertainties related to the redshift estimation process and produce a redshift posterior probability density function (PDF). To automate the assessment of a reliability flag, we exploit key features in the redshift posterior PDF and machine learning algorithms. Results: As a working example, public data from the VIMOS VLT Deep Survey is exploited to present and test this new methodology. We first tried to reproduce the existing reliability flags using supervised classification in order to describe different types of redshift PDFs, but due to the subjective definition of these flags (classification accuracy 58%), we soon opted for a new homogeneous partitioning of the data into distinct clusters via unsupervised classification. After assessing the accuracy of the new clusters via resubstitution and test predictions (classification accuracy 98%), we projected unlabeled data from preliminary mock simulations for the Euclid space mission into this mapping to predict their redshift reliability labels. Conclusions: Through the development of a methodology in which a system can build its own experience to assess the quality of a parameter, we are able to set a preliminary basis of an automated reliability assessment for

Reliability of clinical ICD-10 schizophrenia diagnoses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Klaus D; Frederiksen, Julie N; Hansen, Thomas

2005-01-01

Concern has been expressed as to the reliability of clinical ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia. This study was designed to assess the diagnostic reliability of the clinical ICD-10 diagnosis of schizophrenia in a random sample of Danish in- and outpatients with a history of psychosis. A sample...... value (87%) of ICD-10 schizophrenia and an overall good agreement between clinical and OPCRIT-derived diagnoses (kappa=0.60). An even higher positive predictive value was obtained when diagnoses were amalgamated into a diagnostic entity of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (98%). Near perfect agreement...... was seen between OPCRIT-derived ICD-10 and DSM-IV diagnoses (kappa=0.87). Thus, this study demonstrates high reliability of the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia and even more so of the diagnosis of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder....

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Sproles, Darrell W.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

Different slopes for different folks: alpha and delta EEG power predict subsequent video game learning rate and improvements in cognitive control tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathewson, Kyle E; Basak, Chandramallika; Maclin, Edward L; Low, Kathy A; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele

2012-12-01

We hypothesized that control processes, as measured using electrophysiological (EEG) variables, influence the rate of learning of complex tasks. Specifically, we measured alpha power, event-related spectral perturbations (ERSPs), and event-related brain potentials during early training of the Space Fortress task, and correlated these measures with subsequent learning rate and performance in transfer tasks. Once initial score was partialled out, the best predictors were frontal alpha power and alpha and delta ERSPs, but not P300. By combining these predictors, we could explain about 50% of the learning rate variance and 10%-20% of the variance in transfer to other tasks using only pretraining EEG measures. Thus, control processes, as indexed by alpha and delta EEG oscillations, can predict learning and skill improvements. The results are of potential use to optimize training regimes. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Working memory overload: fronto-limbic interactions and effects on subsequent working memory function.

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Richard J; Krystal, John H; Mathalon, Daniel H

2010-03-01

The human working memory system provides an experimentally useful model for examination of neural overload effects on subsequent functioning of the overloaded system. This study employed functional magnetic resonance imaging in conjunction with a parametric working memory task to characterize the behavioral and neural effects of cognitive overload on subsequent cognitive performance, with particular attention to cognitive-limbic interactions. Overloading the working memory system was associated with varying degrees of subsequent decline in performance accuracy and reduced activation of brain regions central to both task performance and suppression of negative affect. The degree of performance decline was independently predicted by three separate factors operating during the overload condition: the degree of task failure, the degree of amygdala activation, and the degree of inverse coupling between the amygdala and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These findings suggest that vulnerability to overload effects in cognitive functioning may be mediated by reduced amygdala suppression and subsequent amygdala-prefrontal interaction.

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

Subsequent donation requests among 2472 unrelated hematopoietic progenitor cell donors are associated with bone marrow harvest

Science.gov (United States)

Lown, Robert N.; Tulpule, Sameer; Russell, Nigel H.; Craddock, Charles F.; Roest, Rochelle; Madrigal, J. Alejandro; Shaw, Bronwen E.

2013-01-01

Approximately 1 in 20 unrelated donors are asked to make a second donation of hematopoietic progenitor cells, the majority for the same patient. Anthony Nolan undertook a study of subsequent hematopoietic progenitor cell donations made by its donors from 2005 to 2011, with the aims of predicting those donors more likely to be called for a second donation, assessing rates of serious adverse reactions and examining harvest yields. This was not a study of factors predictive of second allografts. During the study period 2591 donations were made, of which 120 (4.6%) were subsequent donations. The median time between donations was 179 days (range, 21–4016). Indications for a second allogeneic transplant included primary graft failure (11.7%), secondary graft failure (53.2%), relapse (30.6%) and others (1.8%). On multivariate analysis, bone marrow harvest at first donation was associated with subsequent donation requests (odds ratio 2.00, P=0.001). The rate of serious adverse reactions in donors making a subsequent donation appeared greater than the rate in those making a first donation (relative risk=3.29, P=0.005). Harvest yields per kilogram recipient body weight were equivalent between donations, although females appeared to have a lower yield at the subsequent donation. Knowledge of these factors will help unrelated donor registries to counsel their donors. PMID:23812935

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 3: HARP Graphics Oriented (GO) input user's guide

Science.gov (United States)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Mittal, Nitin; Koppen, Sandra Howell

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical preprocessor Graphics Oriented (GO) program. GO is a graphical user interface for the HARP engine that enables the drawing of reliability/availability models on a monitor. A mouse is used to select fault tree gates or Markov graphical symbols from a menu for drawing.

The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

2012-01-01

Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality

Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2006-01-01

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

Survey of methods used to asses human reliability in the human factors reliability benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poucet, A.

1988-01-01

The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has organised a Human Factors Reliability Benchmark Exercise (HF-RBE) with the aim to assess the state-of-the-art in human reliability modelling and assessment. Fifteen teams from eleven countries, representing industry, utilities, licensing organisations and research institutes, participate in the HF-RBE, which is organised around two study cases: (1) analysis of routine functional test and maintenance procedures, with the aim to assess the probability of test-induced failures, the probability of failures to remain unrevealed, and the potential to initiate transients because of errors performed in the test; and (2) analysis of human actions during an operational transient, with the aim to assess the probability that the operators will correctly diagnose the malfunctions and take proper corrective action. The paper briefly reports how the HF-RBE was structured and gives an overview of the methods that have been used for predicting human reliability in both study cases. The experience in applying these methods is discussed and the results obtained are compared. (author)

Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2015-01-01

The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

DMD reliability: a MEMS success story

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass, Michael

2003-01-01

The Digital Micromirror Device (DMD) developed by Texas Instruments (TI) has made tremendous progress in both performance and reliability since it was first invented in 1987. From the first working concept of a bistable mirror, the DMD is now providing high-brightness, high-contrast, and high-reliability in over 1,500,000 projectors using Digital Light Processing technology. In early 2000, TI introduced the first DMD chip with a smaller mirror (14-micron pitch versus 17-micron pitch). This allowed a greater number of high-resolution DMD chips per wafer, thus providing an increased output capacity as well as the flexibility to use existing package designs. By using existing package designs, subsequent DMDs cost less as well as met our customers' demand for faster time to market. In recent years, the DMD achieved the status of being a commercially successful MEMS device. It reached this status by the efforts of hundreds of individuals working toward a common goal over many years. Neither textbooks nor design guidelines existed at the time. There was little infrastructure in place to support such a large endeavor. The knowledge we gained through our characterization and testing was all we had available to us through the first few years of development. Reliability was only a goal in 1992 when production development activity started; a goal that many throughout the industry and even within Texas Instruments doubted the DMD could achieve. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that we succeeded by exceeding the reliability goals.

Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main­ tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...

Validation of the FACT-B+4-UL questionnaire and exploration of its predictive value in women submitted to surgery for breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade Ortega, Juan Alfonso; Millán Gómez, Ana Pilar; Ribeiro González, Marisa; Martínez Piró, Pilar; Jiménez Anula, Juan; Sánchez Andújar, María Belén

2017-06-21

The early detection of upper limb complications is important in women operated on for breast cancer. The "FACT-B+4-UL" questionnaire, a specific variant of the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast (FACT-B) is available among others to measure the upper limb function. The Spanish version of the upper limb subscale of the FACT-B+4 was validated in a prospective cohort of 201 women operated on for breast cancer (factor analysis, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity and sensitivity to change were determined). Its predictive capacity of subsequent lymphoedema and other complications in the upper limb was explored using logistic regression. This subscale is unifactorial and has a great internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.87), its test-retest reliability and construct validity are strong (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.986; Pearson's R with "Quick DASH": 0.81) as is its sensitivity to change. It didn't predict the onset of lymphedema. Its predictive capacity for other upper limb complications is low. FACT-B+4-UL is useful in measuring upper limb disability in women surgically treated for breast cancer; but it does not predict the onset of lymphoedema and its predictive capacity for others complications in the upper limb is low. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Product reliability and thin-film photovoltaics

Science.gov (United States)

Gaston, Ryan; Feist, Rebekah; Yeung, Simon; Hus, Mike; Bernius, Mark; Langlois, Marc; Bury, Scott; Granata, Jennifer; Quintana, Michael; Carlson, Carl; Sarakakis, Georgios; Ogden, Douglas; Mettas, Adamantios

2009-08-01

Despite significant growth in photovoltaics (PV) over the last few years, only approximately 1.07 billion kWhr of electricity is estimated to have been generated from PV in the US during 2008, or 0.27% of total electrical generation. PV market penetration is set for a paradigm shift, as fluctuating hydrocarbon prices and an acknowledgement of the environmental impacts associated with their use, combined with breakthrough new PV technologies, such as thin-film and BIPV, are driving the cost of energy generated with PV to parity or cost advantage versus more traditional forms of energy generation. In addition to reaching cost parity with grid supplied power, a key to the long-term success of PV as a viable energy alternative is the reliability of systems in the field. New technologies may or may not have the same failure modes as previous technologies. Reliability testing and product lifetime issues continue to be one of the key bottlenecks in the rapid commercialization of PV technologies today. In this paper, we highlight the critical need for moving away from relying on traditional qualification and safety tests as a measure of reliability and focus instead on designing for reliability and its integration into the product development process. A drive towards quantitative predictive accelerated testing is emphasized and an industrial collaboration model addressing reliability challenges is proposed.

Predicting Free Recalls

Science.gov (United States)

Laming, Donald

2006-01-01

This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird.

Science.gov (United States)

Shoji, A; Aris-Brosou, S; Culina, A; Fayet, A; Kirk, H; Padget, O; Juarez-Martinez, I; Boyle, D; Nakata, T; Perrins, C M; Guilford, T

2015-10-01

Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals. © 2015 The Authors.

Physical attraction to reliable, low variability nervous systems: Reaction time variability predicts attractiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Emily E; Saville, Christopher W N; Ward, Robert; Ramsey, Richard

2017-01-01

The human face cues a range of important fitness information, which guides mate selection towards desirable others. Given humans' high investment in the central nervous system (CNS), cues to CNS function should be especially important in social selection. We tested if facial attractiveness preferences are sensitive to the reliability of human nervous system function. Several decades of research suggest an operational measure for CNS reliability is reaction time variability, which is measured by standard deviation of reaction times across trials. Across two experiments, we show that low reaction time variability is associated with facial attractiveness. Moreover, variability in performance made a unique contribution to attractiveness judgements above and beyond both physical health and sex-typicality judgements, which have previously been associated with perceptions of attractiveness. In a third experiment, we empirically estimated the distribution of attractiveness preferences expected by chance and show that the size and direction of our results in Experiments 1 and 2 are statistically unlikely without reference to reaction time variability. We conclude that an operating characteristic of the human nervous system, reliability of information processing, is signalled to others through facial appearance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new aspects for project of subsequent thermal resistance extension at old-timer timbering constructions of wood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zdeňka Havířová

2006-01-01

Full Text Available To ensure the reliability of subsequent thermal resistance extension at old-timer timbering constructions of wood for the period of their supposed service life a more profound analysis of construction is necessary from the aspect of a global thermal/technical evaluation. Service life of these buildings is dependent on temperature and moisture conditions in layers of the building cladding where the wood framework is built in. Temperature/moisture conditions or the corresponding equilibrium moisture content (EMC of the construction show considerable effects on the functional reliability of the whole building from the viewpoint of mechanical resistance and stability, energy savings and thermal protection and hygiene, health and environment protection.

Adverse trajectories of mental health problems predict subsequent burnout and work-family conflict - a longitudinal study of employed women with children followed over 18 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsen, Wendy; Skipstein, Anni; Demerouti, Evangelia

2016-11-08

The long-term consequence of experiencing mental health problems may lead to several adverse outcomes. The current study aims to validate previous identified trajectories of mental health problems from 1993 to 2006 in women by examining their implications on subsequent work and family-related outcomes in 2011. Employed women (n = 439) with children were drawn from the Tracking Opportunities and Problems-Study (TOPP), a community-based longitudinal study following Norwegian families across 18 years. Previous identified latent profiles of mental health trajectories (i.e., High; Moderate; Low-rising and Low levels of mental health problems over time) measured at six time points between 1993 and 2006 were examined as predictors of burnout (e.g., exhaustion and disengagement from work) and work-family conflict in 2011 in univariate and multivariate analyses of variance adjusted for potential confounders (age, job demands, and negative emotionality). We found that having consistently High and Moderate symptoms as well as Low-Rising symptoms from 1993 to 2006 predicted higher levels of exhaustion, disengagement from work and work-family conflict in 2011. Findings remained unchanged when adjusting for several potential confounders, but when adjusting for current mental health problems only levels of exhaustion were predicted by the mental health trajectories. The study expands upon previous studies on the field by using a longer time span and by focusing on employed women with children who experience different patterns of mental health trajectories. The long-term effect of these trajectories highlight and validate the importance of early identification and prevention in women experiencing adverse patterns of mental health problems with regards to subsequent work and family-related outcomes.

Systems reliability/structural reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, A.E.

1980-01-01

The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

MEMS Reliability: Infrastructure, Test Structures, Experiments, and Failure Modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

TANNER,DANELLE M.; SMITH,NORMAN F.; IRWIN,LLOYD W.; EATON,WILLIAM P.; HELGESEN,KAREN SUE; CLEMENT,J. JOSEPH; MILLER,WILLIAM M.; MILLER,SAMUEL L.; DUGGER,MICHAEL T.; WALRAVEN,JEREMY A.; PETERSON,KENNETH A.

2000-01-01

The burgeoning new technology of Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) shows great promise in the weapons arena. We can now conceive of micro-gyros, micro-surety systems, and micro-navigators that are extremely small and inexpensive. Do we want to use this new technology in critical applications such as nuclear weapons? This question drove us to understand the reliability and failure mechanisms of silicon surface-micromachined MEMS. Development of a testing infrastructure was a crucial step to perform reliability experiments on MEMS devices and will be reported here. In addition, reliability test structures have been designed and characterized. Many experiments were performed to investigate failure modes and specifically those in different environments (humidity, temperature, shock, vibration, and storage). A predictive reliability model for wear of rubbing surfaces in microengines was developed. The root causes of failure for operating and non-operating MEMS are discussed. The major failure mechanism for operating MEMS was wear of the polysilicon rubbing surfaces. Reliability design rules for future MEMS devices are established.

Eye Movements During Everyday Behavior Predict Personality Traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoppe, Sabrina; Loetscher, Tobias; Morey, Stephanie A; Bulling, Andreas

2018-01-01

Besides allowing us to perceive our surroundings, eye movements are also a window into our mind and a rich source of information on who we are, how we feel, and what we do. Here we show that eye movements during an everyday task predict aspects of our personality. We tracked eye movements of 42 participants while they ran an errand on a university campus and subsequently assessed their personality traits using well-established questionnaires. Using a state-of-the-art machine learning method and a rich set of features encoding different eye movement characteristics, we were able to reliably predict four of the Big Five personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness) as well as perceptual curiosity only from eye movements. Further analysis revealed new relations between previously neglected eye movement characteristics and personality. Our findings demonstrate a considerable influence of personality on everyday eye movement control, thereby complementing earlier studies in laboratory settings. Improving automatic recognition and interpretation of human social signals is an important endeavor, enabling innovative design of human-computer systems capable of sensing spontaneous natural user behavior to facilitate efficient interaction and personalization.

Eye Movements During Everyday Behavior Predict Personality Traits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabrina Hoppe

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Besides allowing us to perceive our surroundings, eye movements are also a window into our mind and a rich source of information on who we are, how we feel, and what we do. Here we show that eye movements during an everyday task predict aspects of our personality. We tracked eye movements of 42 participants while they ran an errand on a university campus and subsequently assessed their personality traits using well-established questionnaires. Using a state-of-the-art machine learning method and a rich set of features encoding different eye movement characteristics, we were able to reliably predict four of the Big Five personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness as well as perceptual curiosity only from eye movements. Further analysis revealed new relations between previously neglected eye movement characteristics and personality. Our findings demonstrate a considerable influence of personality on everyday eye movement control, thereby complementing earlier studies in laboratory settings. Improving automatic recognition and interpretation of human social signals is an important endeavor, enabling innovative design of human–computer systems capable of sensing spontaneous natural user behavior to facilitate efficient interaction and personalization.

Predictive coding of visual-auditory and motor-auditory events: An electrophysiological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stekelenburg, Jeroen J; Vroomen, Jean

2015-11-11

The amplitude of auditory components of the event-related potential (ERP) is attenuated when sounds are self-generated compared to externally generated sounds. This effect has been ascribed to internal forward modals predicting the sensory consequences of one's own motor actions. Auditory potentials are also attenuated when a sound is accompanied by a video of anticipatory visual motion that reliably predicts the sound. Here, we investigated whether the neural underpinnings of prediction of upcoming auditory stimuli are similar for motor-auditory (MA) and visual-auditory (VA) events using a stimulus omission paradigm. In the MA condition, a finger tap triggered the sound of a handclap whereas in the VA condition the same sound was accompanied by a video showing the handclap. In both conditions, the auditory stimulus was omitted in either 50% or 12% of the trials. These auditory omissions induced early and mid-latency ERP components (oN1 and oN2, presumably reflecting prediction and prediction error), and subsequent higher-order error evaluation processes. The oN1 and oN2 of MA and VA were alike in amplitude, topography, and neural sources despite that the origin of the prediction stems from different brain areas (motor versus visual cortex). This suggests that MA and VA predictions activate a sensory template of the sound in auditory cortex. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Yong

1992-07-01

This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

Reliability and radiation tolerance of robots for nuclear applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lauridsen, K [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Decreton, M [SCK.CEN (Belgium); Seifert, C C [Siemens AG (Germany); Sharp, R [AEA Technology (United Kingdom)

1996-10-01

The reliability of a robot for nuclear applications will be affected by environmental factors such as dust, water, vibrations, heat, and, in particular, ionising radiation. The present report describes the work carried out in a project addressing the reliability and radiation tolerance of such robots. A widely representative range of components and materials has been radiation tested and the test results have been collated in a database along with data provided by the participants from earlier work and data acquired from other sources. A radiation effects guide has been written for the use by designers of electronic equipment for robots. A generic reliability model has been set up together with generic failure strategies, forming the basis for specific reliability modelling carried out in other projects. Modelling tools have been examined and developed for the prediction of the performance of electronic circuits subjected to radiation. Reports have been produced dealing with the prediction and detection of upcoming failures in electronic systems. Operational experience from the use of robots in radiation work in various contexts has been compiled in a report, and another report has been written on cost/benefit considerations about the use of robots. Also the possible impact of robots on the safety of the surrounding plant has been considered and reported. (au) 16 ills., 236 refs.

Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

2015-11-01

Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

Reliability and radiation tolerance of robots for nuclear applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauridsen, K.; Decreton, M.; Seifert, C.C.; Sharp, R.

1996-10-01

The reliability of a robot for nuclear applications will be affected by environmental factors such as dust, water, vibrations, heat, and, in particular, ionising radiation. The present report describes the work carried out in a project addressing the reliability and radiation tolerance of such robots. A widely representative range of components and materials has been radiation tested and the test results have been collated in a database along with data provided by the participants from earlier work and data acquired from other sources. A radiation effects guide has been written for the use by designers of electronic equipment for robots. A generic reliability model has been set up together with generic failure strategies, forming the basis for specific reliability modelling carried out in other projects. Modelling tools have been examined and developed for the prediction of the performance of electronic circuits subjected to radiation. Reports have been produced dealing with the prediction and detection of upcoming failures in electronic systems. Operational experience from the use of robots in radiation work in various contexts has been compiled in a report, and another report has been written on cost/benefit considerations about the use of robots. Also the possible impact of robots on the safety of the surrounding plant has been considered and reported. (au) 16 ills., 236 refs

Human Reliability Data Bank: evaluation results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Donovan, M.D.; Gaddy, C.D.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and General Physics Corporation are conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of a Human Reliability Data Bank for nuclear power industry probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As part of this program, a survey was conducted of existing human reliability data banks from other industries, and a detailed concept of a Data Bank for the nuclear industry was developed. Subsequently, a detailed specification for implementing the Data Bank was developed. An evaluation of this specification was conducted and is described in this report. The evaluation tested data treatment, storage, and retrieval using the Data Bank structure, as modified from NUREG/CR-2744, and detailed procedures for data processing and retrieval, developed prior to this evaluation and documented in the test specification. The evaluation consisted of an Operability Demonstration and Evaluation of the data processing procedures, a Data Retrieval Demonstration and Evaluation, a Retrospective Analysis that included a survey of organizations currently operating data banks for the nuclear power industry, and an Internal Analysis of the current Data Bank System

On the accuracy and reliability of predictions by control-system theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourbon, W T; Copeland, K E; Dyer, V R; Harman, W K; Mosley, B L

1990-12-01

In three experiments we used control-system theory (CST) to predict the results of tracking tasks on which people held a handle to keep a cursor even with a target on a computer screen. 10 people completed a total of 104 replications of the task. In each experiment, there were two conditions: in one, only the handle affected the position of the cursor; in the other, a random disturbance also affected the cursor. From a person's performance during Condition 1, we derived constants used in the CST model to predict the results of Condition 2. In two experiments, predictions occurred a few minutes before Condition 2; in one experiment, the delay was 1 yr. During a 1-min. experimental run, the positions of handle and cursor, produced by the person, were each sampled 1800 times, once every 1/30 sec. During a modeling run, the model predicted the positions of the handle and target for each of the 1800 intervals sampled in the experimental run. In 104 replications, the mean correlation between predicted and actual positions of the handle was .996; SD = .002.

Self-esteem among nursing assistants: reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

McMullen, Tara; Resnick, Barbara

2013-01-01

To establish the reliability and validity of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) when used with nursing assistants (NAs). Testing the RSES used baseline data from a randomized controlled trial testing the Res-Care Intervention. Female NAs were recruited from nursing homes (n = 508). Validity testing for the positive and negative subscales of the RSES was based on confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using structural equation modeling and Rasch analysis. Estimates of reliability were based on Rasch analysis and the person separation index. Evidence supports the reliability and validity of the RSES in NAs although we recommend minor revisions to the measure for subsequent use. Establishing reliable and valid measures of self-esteem in NAs will facilitate testing of interventions to strengthen workplace self-esteem, job satisfaction, and retention.

Pre-Proposal Assessment of Reliability for Spacecraft Docking with Limited Information

Science.gov (United States)

Brall, Aron

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the reliability of a critical system function as well as its impact on the system reliability when limited information is available. The approach addresses the basic function reliability, and then the impact of multiple attempts to accomplish the function. The dependence of subsequent attempts on prior failure to accomplish the function is also addressed. The autonomous docking of two spacecraft was the specific example that generated the inquiry, and the resultant impact on total reliability generated substantial interest in presenting the results due to the relative insensitivity of overall performance to basic function reliability and moderate degradation given sufficient attempts to try and accomplish the required goal. The application of the methodology allows proper emphasis on the characteristics that can be estimated with some knowledge, and to insulate the integrity of the design from those characteristics that can't be properly estimated with any rational value of uncertainty. The nature of NASA's missions contains a great deal of uncertainty due to the pursuit of new science or operations. This approach can be applied to any function where multiple attempts at success, with or without degradation, are allowed.

Expression changes in the stroma of prostate cancer predict subsequent relapse.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenyu Jia

Full Text Available Biomarkers are needed to address overtreatment that occurs for the majority of prostate cancer patients that would not die of the disease but receive radical treatment. A possible barrier to biomarker discovery may be the polyclonal/multifocal nature of prostate tumors as well as cell-type heterogeneity between patient samples. Tumor-adjacent stroma (tumor microenvironment is less affected by genetic alteration and might therefore yield more consistent biomarkers in response to tumor aggressiveness. To this end we compared Affymetrix gene expression profiles in stroma near tumor and identified a set of 115 probe sets for which the expression levels were significantly correlated with time-to-relapse. We also compared patients that chemically relapsed shortly after prostatectomy (<1 year, and patients that did not relapse in the first four years after prostatectomy. We identified 131 differentially expressed microarray probe sets between these two categories. 19 probe sets (15 genes overlapped between the two gene lists with p<0.0001. We developed a PAM-based classifier by training on samples containing stroma near tumor: 9 rapid relapse patient samples and 9 indolent patient samples. We then tested the classifier on 47 different samples, containing 90% or more stroma. The classifier predicted the risk status of patients with an average accuracy of 87%. This is the first general tumor microenvironment-based prognostic classifier. These results indicate that the prostate cancer microenvironment exhibits reproducible changes useful for predicting outcomes for patients.

The reliability paradox: Why robust cognitive tasks do not produce reliable individual differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedge, Craig; Powell, Georgina; Sumner, Petroc

2017-07-19

Individual differences in cognitive paradigms are increasingly employed to relate cognition to brain structure, chemistry, and function. However, such efforts are often unfruitful, even with the most well established tasks. Here we offer an explanation for failures in the application of robust cognitive paradigms to the study of individual differences. Experimental effects become well established - and thus those tasks become popular - when between-subject variability is low. However, low between-subject variability causes low reliability for individual differences, destroying replicable correlations with other factors and potentially undermining published conclusions drawn from correlational relationships. Though these statistical issues have a long history in psychology, they are widely overlooked in cognitive psychology and neuroscience today. In three studies, we assessed test-retest reliability of seven classic tasks: Eriksen Flanker, Stroop, stop-signal, go/no-go, Posner cueing, Navon, and Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Code (SNARC). Reliabilities ranged from 0 to .82, being surprisingly low for most tasks given their common use. As we predicted, this emerged from low variance between individuals rather than high measurement variance. In other words, the very reason such tasks produce robust and easily replicable experimental effects - low between-participant variability - makes their use as correlational tools problematic. We demonstrate that taking such reliability estimates into account has the potential to qualitatively change theoretical conclusions. The implications of our findings are that well-established approaches in experimental psychology and neuropsychology may not directly translate to the study of individual differences in brain structure, chemistry, and function, and alternative metrics may be required.

Reliability of sonographic assessment of tendinopathy in tennis elbow.

Science.gov (United States)

Poltawski, Leon; Ali, Syed; Jayaram, Vijay; Watson, Tim

2012-01-01

To assess the reliability and compute the minimum detectable change using sonographic scales to quantify the extent of pathology and hyperaemia in the common extensor tendon in people with tennis elbow. The lateral elbows of 19 people with tennis elbow were assessed sonographically twice, 1-2 weeks apart. Greyscale and power Doppler images were recorded for subsequent rating of abnormalities. Tendon thickening, hypoechogenicity, fibrillar disruption and calcification were each rated on four-point scales, and scores were summed to provide an overall rating of structural abnormality; hyperaemia was scored on a five point scale. Inter-rater reliability was established using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) to compare scores assigned independently to the same set of images by a radiologist and a physiotherapist with training in musculoskeletal imaging. Test-retest reliability was assessed by comparing scores assigned by the physiotherapist to images recorded at the two sessions. The minimum detectable change (MDC) was calculated from the test-retest reliability data. ICC values for inter-rater reliability ranged from 0.35 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.60) for fibrillar disruption to 0.77 (0.55, 0.88) for overall greyscale score, and 0.89 (0.79, 0.95) for hyperaemia. Test-retest reliability ranged from 0.70 (0.48, 0.84) for tendon thickening to 0.82 (0.66, 0.90) for overall greyscale score and 0.86 (0.73, 0.93) for calcification. The MDC for the greyscale total score was 2.0/12 and for the hyperaemia score was 1.1/5. The sonographic scoring system used in this study may be used reliably to quantify tendon abnormalities and change over time. A relatively inexperienced imager can conduct the assessment and use the rating scales reliably.

Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Jing [ORNL; Mahmassani, Hani S. [Northwestern University, Evanston

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

Reliability-Based Decision Fusion in Multimodal Biometric Verification Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kryszczuk Krzysztof

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology of reliability estimation in the multimodal biometric verification scenario. Reliability estimation has shown to be an efficient and accurate way of predicting and correcting erroneous classification decisions in both unimodal (speech, face, online signature and multimodal (speech and face systems. While the initial research results indicate the high potential of the proposed methodology, the performance of the reliability estimation in a multimodal setting has not been sufficiently studied or evaluated. In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of using the unimodal reliability information in order to perform an efficient biometric fusion of two modalities. We further show the presented method to be superior to state-of-the-art multimodal decision-level fusion schemes. The experimental evaluation presented in this paper is based on the popular benchmarking bimodal BANCA database.

Reliability

OpenAIRE

Condon, David; Revelle, William

2017-01-01

Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

2012-01-01

Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

Reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Chau

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Wolfram syndrome (WFS is a rare, neurodegenerative disease that typically presents with childhood onset insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, followed by optic atrophy, diabetes insipidus, deafness, and neurological and psychiatric dysfunction. There is no cure for the disease, but recent advances in research have improved understanding of the disease course. Measuring disease severity and progression with reliable and validated tools is a prerequisite for clinical trials of any new intervention for neurodegenerative conditions. To this end, we developed the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS to measure the severity and individual variability of WFS symptoms. The aim of this study is to develop and test the reliability and validity of the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS. Methods A rating scale of disease severity in WFS was developed by modifying a standardized assessment for another neurodegenerative condition (Batten disease. WFS experts scored the representativeness of WURS items for the disease. The WURS was administered to 13 individuals with WFS (6-25 years of age. Motor, balance, mood and quality of life were also evaluated with standard instruments. Inter-rater reliability, internal consistency reliability, concurrent, predictive and content validity of the WURS were calculated. Results The WURS had high inter-rater reliability (ICCs>.93, moderate to high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.78-0.91 and demonstrated good concurrent and predictive validity. There were significant correlations between the WURS Physical Assessment and motor and balance tests (rs>.67, ps>.76, ps=-.86, p=.001. The WURS demonstrated acceptable content validity (Scale-Content Validity Index=0.83. Conclusions These preliminary findings demonstrate that the WURS has acceptable reliability and validity and captures individual differences in disease severity in children and young adults with WFS.

Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Clifford

2014-12-01

Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inter- and intra-observer reliability of masking in plantar pressure measurement analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Deschamps, K; Birch, I; Mc Innes, J; Desloovere, K; Matricali, G A

2009-10-01

Plantar pressure measurement is an important tool in gait analysis. Manual placement of small masks (masking) is increasingly used to calculate plantar pressure characteristics. Little is known concerning the reliability of manual masking. The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of masking on 2D plantar pressure footprints, in a population with forefoot deformity (i.e. hallux valgus). Using a random repeated-measure design, four observers identified the third metatarsal head on a peak-pressure barefoot footprint, using a small mask. Subsequently, the location of all five metatarsal heads was identified, using the same size of masks and the same protocol. The 2D positional variation of the masks and the peak pressure (PP) and pressure time integral (PTI) values of each mask were calculated. For single-masking the lowest inter-observer reliability was found for the distal-proximal direction, causing a clear, adverse impact on the reliability of the pressure characteristics (PP and PTI). In the medial-lateral direction the inter-observer reliability could be scored as high. Intra-observer reliability was better and could be scored as high or good for both directions, with a correlated improved reliability of the pressure characteristics. Reliability of multi-masking showed a similar pattern, but overall values tended to be lower. Therefore, small sized masking in order to define pressure characteristics in the forefoot should be done with care.

Suitability review of FMEA and reliability analysis for digital plant protection system and digital engineered safety features actuation system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, I. S.; Kim, T. K.; Kim, M. C.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Ryu, K. C. [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2000-11-15

Of the many items that should be checked out during a review stage of the licensing application for the I and C system of Ulchin 5 and 6 units, this report relates to a suitability review of the reliability analysis of Digital Plant Protection System (DPPS) and Digital Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (DESFAS). In the reliability analysis performed by the system designer, ABB-CE, fault tree analysis was used as the main methods along with Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA). However, the present regulatory technique dose not allow the system reliability analysis and its results to be appropriately evaluated. Hence, this study was carried out focusing on the following four items ; development of general review items by which to check the validity of a reliability analysis, and the subsequent review of suitability of the reliability analysis for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS L development of detailed review items by which to check the validity of an FMEA, and the subsequent review of suitability of the FMEA for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS ; development of detailed review items by which to check the validity of a fault tree analysis, and the subsequent review of suitability of the fault tree for Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS ; an integrated review of the safety and reliability of the Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS based on the results of the various reviews above and also of a reliability comparison between the digital systems and the comparable analog systems, i.e., and analog Plant Protection System (PPS) and and analog Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). According to the review mentioned above, the reliability analysis of Ulchin 5 and 6 DPPS and DESFAS generally satisfies the review requirements. However, some shortcomings of the analysis were identified in our review such that the assumed test periods for several equipment were not properly incorporated in the analysis, and failures of some equipment were not included in the

The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia global rating scale is a reliable tool for simulation-based assessment in pediatric anesthesia crisis management.

Science.gov (United States)

Everett, Tobias C; Ng, Elaine; Power, Daniel; Marsh, Christopher; Tolchard, Stephen; Shadrina, Anna; Bould, Matthew D

2013-12-01

The use of simulation-based assessments for high-stakes physician examinations remains controversial. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia course uses simulation to teach evidence-based management of anesthesia crises to trainee anesthetists in the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and reliability of custom-designed scenario-specific performance checklists and a global rating scale (GRS) assessing readiness for independent practice. After research ethics board approval, subjects were videoed managing simulated pediatric anesthesia crises in a single Canadian teaching hospital. Each subject was randomized to two of six different scenarios. All 60 scenarios were subsequently rated by four blinded raters (two in the UK, two in Canada) using the checklists and GRS. The actual and predicted reliability of the tools was calculated for different numbers of raters using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Average measures ICCs ranged from 'substantial' to 'near perfect' (P ≤ 0.001). The reliability of the checklists and the GRS was similar. Single measures ICCs showed more variability than average measures ICC. At least two raters would be required to achieve acceptable reliability. We have established the reliability of a GRS to assess the management of simulated crisis scenarios in pediatric anesthesia, and this tool is feasible within the setting of a research study. The global rating scale allows raters to make a judgement regarding a participant's readiness for independent practice. These tools may be used in the future research examining simulation-based assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yperzeele, Laetitia; van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

2016-01-01

Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV

Improvement of the reliability on nondestructive inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Sung Jin; Kim, Young H.; Lee, Hyang Beom; Shin, Young Kil; Jung, Hyun Jo; Park, Ik Keun; Park, Eun Soo

2002-03-01

Retaining reliabilities of nondestructive testing is essential for the life-time maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant. The nondestructive testing methods which are frequently used in the Nuclear Power Plant are eddy current testing for the inspection of steam generator tubes and ultrasonic testing for the inspection of weldments. In order to improve reliabilities of ultrasonic testing and eddy current testing, the subjects carried out in this study are as follows : development of BEM analysis technique for ECT of SG tube, development of neural network technique for the intelligent analysis of ECT flaw signals of SG tubes, development of RFECT technology for the inspection of SG tube, FEM analysis of ultrasonic scattering field, evaluation of statistical reliability of PD-RR test of ultrasonic testing and development of multi-Gaussian beam modeling technique to predict accurate signal of signal beam ultrasonic testing with the efficiency in calculation time

Improvement of the reliability on nondestructive inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Sung Jin; Kim, Young H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyang Beom [Soongsil Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Young Kil [Kunsan National Univ., Gunsan (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Hyun Jo [Wonkwang Univ., Iksan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Ik Keun; Park, Eun Soo [Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2002-03-15

Retaining reliabilities of nondestructive testing is essential for the life-time maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant. The nondestructive testing methods which are frequently used in the Nuclear Power Plant are eddy current testing for the inspection of steam generator tubes and ultrasonic testing for the inspection of weldments. In order to improve reliabilities of ultrasonic testing and eddy current testing, the subjects carried out in this study are as follows : development of BEM analysis technique for ECT of SG tube, development of neural network technique for the intelligent analysis of ECT flaw signals of SG tubes, development of RFECT technology for the inspection of SG tube, FEM analysis of ultrasonic scattering field, evaluation of statistical reliability of PD-RR test of ultrasonic testing and development of multi-Gaussian beam modeling technique to predict accurate signal of signal beam ultrasonic testing with the efficiency in calculation time.

Reliability assessment of passive isolation condenser system of AHWR using APSRA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nayak, A.K.; Jain, Vikas; Gartia, M.R.; Prasad, Hari; Anthony, A.; Bhatia, S.K.; Sinha, R.K.

2009-01-01

In this paper, a methodology known as APSRA (Assessment of Passive System ReliAbility) is used for evaluation of reliability of passive isolation condenser system of the Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR). As per the APSRA methodology, the passive system reliability evaluation is based on the failure probability of the system to perform the design basis function. The methodology first determines the operational characteristics of the system and the failure conditions based on a predetermined failure criterion. The parameters that could degrade the system performance are identified and considered for analysis. Different modes of failure and their cause are identified. The failure surface is predicted using a best estimate code considering deviations of the operating parameters from their nominal states, which affect the isolation condenser system performance. Once the failure surface of the system is predicted, the causes of failure are examined through root diagnosis, which occur mainly due to failure of mechanical components. Reliability of the system is evaluated through a classical PSA treatment based on the failure probability of the components using generic data

Elder abuse telephone screen reliability and validity.

Science.gov (United States)

Buri, Hilary M; Daly, Jeanette M; Jogerst, Gerald J

2009-01-01

(a) To identify reliable and valid questions that identify elder abuse, (b) to assess the reliability and validity of extant self-reported elder abuse screens in a high-risk elderly population, and (c) to describe difficulties of completing and interpreting screens in a high-need elderly population. All elders referred to research-trained social workers in a community service agency were asked to participate. Of the 70 elders asked, 49 participated, 44 completed the first questionnaire, and 32 completed the duplicate second questionnaire. A research assistant administered the telephone questionnaires. Twenty-nine (42%) persons were judged abused, 12 (17%) had abuse reported, and 4 (6%) had abuse substantiated. The elder abuse screen instruments were not found to be predictive of assessed abuse or as predictors of reported abuse; the measures tended toward being inversely predictive. Two questions regarding harm and taking of belongings were significantly different for the assessed abused group. In this small group of high-need community-dwelling elders, the screens were not effective in discriminating between abused and nonabused groups. Better instruments are needed to assess for elder abuse.

Reliability and validity of the Haitian Creole PHQ-9.

Science.gov (United States)

Marc, Linda G; Henderson, Whitney R; Desrosiers, Astrid; Testa, Marcia A; Jean, Samuel E; Akom, Eniko Edit

2014-12-01

There is limited information on depression in Haitians and this is partly attributable to the absence of culturally and linguistically adapted measures for depression. To perform a psychometric evaluation of the Haitian-Creole version of the PHQ-9 administered to men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Republic of Haiti. This study uses a cross-sectional design and data are from the Integrated Behavioral and Biological HIV Survey (IBBS) for MSM in Haiti. Inclusion criteria required that participants be male, ≥ 18 years, report sexual relations with a male partner in the last 12 months, and lived in Haiti during the past 3 months. Respondent Driven Sampling was used for participant recruitment. A structured questionnaire was verbally administered in Haitian-Creole capturing information on sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and depressive symptomatology using the PHQ-9. Psychometric analyses of the translated PHQ-9 assessed unidimensionality, factor structure, reliability, construct validity, and differential item functioning (DIF) across subgroups (age, educational level, sexual orientation and HIV status). In a study population of 1,028 MSM, the Haitian-Creole version of the PHQ-9 is unidimensional, has moderately high internal consistency reliability (α = 0.78), and shows evidence of construct validity where HIV-positive subjects have greater depression (p = 0.002). There is no evidence of DIF across age, education, sexual orientation or HIV status. HIV-positive MSM are twice as likely to screen positive for moderately severe and severe depressive symptoms compared to their HIV-negative counterparts. There is strong evidence for the psychometric adequacy of the translated PHQ-9 screening tool as a measure of depression with MSM in Haiti. Future research is necessary to examine the predictive validity of depression for subsequent health behaviors or clinical outcomes among Haitian MSM.

Modular reliability modeling of the TJNAF personnel safety system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cinnamon, J.; Mahoney, K.

1997-01-01

A reliability model for the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (formerly CEBAF) personnel safety system has been developed. The model, which was implemented using an Excel spreadsheet, allows simulation of all or parts of the system. Modularity os the model's implementation allows rapid open-quotes what if open-quotes case studies to simulate change in safety system parameters such as redundancy, diversity, and failure rates. Particular emphasis is given to the prediction of failure modes which would result in the failure of both of the redundant safety interlock systems. In addition to the calculation of the predicted reliability of the safety system, the model also calculates availability of the same system. Such calculations allow the user to make tradeoff studies between reliability and availability, and to target resources to improving those parts of the system which would most benefit from redesign or upgrade. The model includes calculated, manufacturer's data, and Jefferson Lab field data. This paper describes the model, methods used, and comparison of calculated to actual data for the Jefferson Lab personnel safety system. Examples are given to illustrate the model's utility and ease of use

Reliability evaluation of oil pipelines operating in aggressive environment

Science.gov (United States)

Magomedov, R. M.; Paizulaev, M. M.; Gebel, E. S.

2017-08-01

In connection with modern increased requirements for ecology and safety, the development of diagnostic services complex is obligatory and necessary enabling to ensure the reliable operation of the gas transportation infrastructure. Estimation of oil pipelines technical condition should be carried out not only to establish the current values of the equipment technological parameters in operation, but also to predict the dynamics of changes in the physical and mechanical characteristics of the material, the appearance of defects, etc. to ensure reliable and safe operation. In the paper, existing Russian and foreign methods for evaluation of the oil pipelines reliability are considered, taking into account one of the main factors leading to the appearance of crevice in the pipeline material, i.e. change the shape of its cross-section, - corrosion. Without compromising the generality of the reasoning, the assumption of uniform corrosion wear for the initial rectangular cross section has been made. As a result a formula for calculation the probability of failure-free operation was formulated. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to predict emergency situations, as well as to determine optimal operating conditions for oil pipelines.

Insightful practice: a reliable measure for medical revalidation

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, Bruce; Sullivan, Frank M; Mercer, Stewart W; Russell, Andrew; Bruce, David A

2012-01-01

Background Medical revalidation decisions need to be reliable if they are to reassure on the quality and safety of professional practice. This study tested an innovative method in which general practitioners (GPs) were assessed on their reflection and response to a set of externally specified feedback. Setting and participants 60 GPs and 12 GP appraisers in the Tayside region of Scotland, UK. Methods A feedback dataset was specified as (1) GP-specific data collected by GPs themselves (patient and colleague opinion; open book self-evaluated knowledge test; complaints) and (2) Externally collected practice-level data provided to GPs (clinical quality and prescribing safety). GPs' perceptions of whether the feedback covered UK General Medical Council specified attributes of a ‘good doctor’ were examined using a mapping exercise. GPs' professionalism was examined in terms of appraiser assessment of GPs' level of insightful practice, defined as: engagement with, insight into and appropriate action on feedback data. The reliability of assessment of insightful practice and subsequent recommendations on GPs' revalidation by face-to-face and anonymous assessors were investigated using Generalisability G-theory. Main outcome measures Coverage of General Medical Council attributes by specified feedback and reliability of assessor recommendations on doctors' suitability for revalidation. Results Face-to-face assessment proved unreliable. Anonymous global assessment by three appraisers of insightful practice was highly reliable (G=0.85), as were revalidation decisions using four anonymous assessors (G=0.83). Conclusions Unlike face-to-face appraisal, anonymous assessment of insightful practice offers a valid and reliable method to decide GP revalidation. Further validity studies are needed. PMID:22653078

Re-establishing the pecking order: Niche models reliably predict suitable habitats for the reintroduction of red-billed oxpeckers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalle, Riddhika; Combrink, Leigh; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2017-03-01

Distributions of avian mutualists are affected by changes in biotic interactions and environmental conditions driven directly/indirectly by human actions. The range contraction of red-billed oxpeckers ( Buphagus erythrorhynchus ) in South Africa is partly a result of the widespread use of acaracides (i.e., mainly cattle dips), toxic to both ticks and oxpeckers. We predicted the habitat suitability of red-billed oxpeckers in South Africa using ensemble models to assist the ongoing reintroduction efforts and to identify new reintroduction sites for population recovery. The distribution of red-billed oxpeckers was influenced by moderate to high tree cover, woodland habitats, and starling density (a proxy for cavity-nesting birds) with regard to nest-site characteristics. Consumable resources (host and tick density), bioclimate, surface water body density, and proximity to protected areas were other influential predictors. Our models estimated 42,576.88-98,506.98 km 2 of highly suitable habitat (0.5-1) covering the majority of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, a substantial portion of northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Gauteng Province. Niche models reliably predicted suitable habitat in 40%-61% of the reintroduction sites where breeding is currently successful. Ensemble, boosted regression trees and generalized additive models predicted few suitable areas in the Eastern Cape and south of KZN that are part of the historic range. A few southern areas in the Northern Cape, outside the historic range, also had suitable sites predicted. Our models are a promising decision support tool for guiding reintroduction programs at macroscales. Apart from active reintroductions, conservation programs should encourage farmers and/or landowners to use oxpecker-compatible agrochemicals and set up adequate nest boxes to facilitate the population recovery of the red-billed oxpecker, particularly in human-modified landscapes. To ensure long-term conservation success, we suggest that

Reliability Models Applied to a System of Power Converters in Particle Accelerators

OpenAIRE

Siemaszko, D; Speiser, M; Pittet, S

2012-01-01

Several reliability models are studied when applied to a power system containing a large number of power converters. A methodology is proposed and illustrated in the case study of a novel linear particle accelerator designed for reaching high energies. The proposed methods result in the prediction of both reliability and availability of the considered system for optimisation purposes.

Reliability Analysis for Adhesive Bonded Composite Stepped Lap Joints Loaded in Fatigue

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kimiaeifar, Amin; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Lund, Erik

2012-01-01

-1, where partial safety factors are introduced together with characteristic values. Asymptotic sampling is used to estimate the reliability with support points generated by randomized Sobol sequences. The predicted reliability level is compared with the implicitly required target reliability level defined......This paper describes a probabilistic approach to calculate the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue using three- dimensional finite element analysis (FEA). A method for progressive damage modelling is used to assess fatigue damage accumulation and residual...... by the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. Finally, an approach for the assessment of the reliability of adhesive bonded composite stepped lap joints loaded in fatigue is presented. The introduced methodology can be applied in the same way to calculate the reliability level of wind turbine blade components...

[Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

2016-09-16

To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Reliability Evaluation for Clustered WSNs under Malware Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Shigen; Huang, Longjun; Liu, Jianhua; Champion, Adam C.; Yu, Shui; Cao, Qiying

2016-01-01

We consider a clustered wireless sensor network (WSN) under epidemic-malware propagation conditions and solve the problem of how to evaluate its reliability so as to ensure efficient, continuous, and dependable transmission of sensed data from sensor nodes to the sink. Facing the contradiction between malware intention and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) randomness, we introduce a strategic game that can predict malware infection in order to model a successful infection as a CTMC state transition. Next, we devise a novel measure to compute the Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) of a sensor node, which represents the reliability of a sensor node continuously performing tasks such as sensing, transmitting, and fusing data. Since clustered WSNs can be regarded as parallel-serial-parallel systems, the reliability of a clustered WSN can be evaluated via classical reliability theory. Numerical results show the influence of parameters such as the true positive rate and the false positive rate on a sensor node’s MTTF. Furthermore, we validate the method of reliability evaluation for a clustered WSN according to the number of sensor nodes in a cluster, the number of clusters in a route, and the number of routes in the WSN. PMID:27294934

Reliability Evaluation for Clustered WSNs under Malware Propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Shigen; Huang, Longjun; Liu, Jianhua; Champion, Adam C; Yu, Shui; Cao, Qiying

2016-06-10

We consider a clustered wireless sensor network (WSN) under epidemic-malware propagation conditions and solve the problem of how to evaluate its reliability so as to ensure efficient, continuous, and dependable transmission of sensed data from sensor nodes to the sink. Facing the contradiction between malware intention and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) randomness, we introduce a strategic game that can predict malware infection in order to model a successful infection as a CTMC state transition. Next, we devise a novel measure to compute the Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) of a sensor node, which represents the reliability of a sensor node continuously performing tasks such as sensing, transmitting, and fusing data. Since clustered WSNs can be regarded as parallel-serial-parallel systems, the reliability of a clustered WSN can be evaluated via classical reliability theory. Numerical results show the influence of parameters such as the true positive rate and the false positive rate on a sensor node's MTTF. Furthermore, we validate the method of reliability evaluation for a clustered WSN according to the number of sensor nodes in a cluster, the number of clusters in a route, and the number of routes in the WSN.

Influence Of Inspection Intervals On Mechanical System Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zilberman, B.

1998-01-01

In this paper a methodology of reliability analysis of mechanical systems with latent failures is described. Reliability analysis of such systems must include appropriate usage of check intervals for latent failure detection. The methodology suggests, that based on system logic the analyst decides at the beginning if a system can fail actively or latently and propagates this approach through all system levels. All inspections are assumed to be perfect (all failures are detected and repaired and no new failures are introduced as a result of the maintenance). Additional assumptions are that mission time is much smaller, than check intervals and all components have constant failure rates. Analytical expressions for reliability calculates are provided, based on fault tree and Markov modeling techniques (for two and three redundant systems with inspection intervals). The proposed methodology yields more accurate results than are obtained by not using check intervals or using half check interval times. The conventional analysis assuming that at the beginning of each mission system is as new, give an optimistic prediction of system reliability. Some examples of reliability calculations of mechanical systems with latent failures and establishing optimum check intervals are provided

Reliability model for common mode failures in redundant safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.

1974-12-01

A method is presented for computing the reliability of redundant safety systems, considering both independent and common mode type failures. The model developed for the computation is a simple extension of classical reliability theory. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated with the use of an example. The probability of failure of a typical diesel-generator emergency power system is computed based on data obtained from U. S. diesel-generator operating experience. The results are compared with reliability predictions based on the assumption that all failures are independent. The comparison shows a significant increase in the probability of redundant system failure, when common failure modes are considered. (U.S.)

Space Shuttle Program Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) Success Legacy - Quality and Reliability Date

Science.gov (United States)

Orr, James K.; Peltier, Daryl

2010-01-01

Thsi slide presentation reviews the avionics software system on board the space shuttle, with particular emphasis on the quality and reliability. The Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) provides automatic and fly-by-wire control of critical shuttle systems which executes in redundant computers. Charts given show the number of space shuttle flights vs time, PASS's development history, and other charts that point to the reliability of the system's development. The reliability of the system is also compared to predicted reliability.

[Reliability and validity studies of Turkish translation of Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated].

Science.gov (United States)

Karanci, A Nuray; Dirik, Gülay; Yorulmaz, Orçun

2007-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the reliability and the validity of the Turkish translation of the Eysneck Personality Questionnaire Revised-abbreviated Form (EPQR-A) (Francis et al., 1992), which consists of 24 items that assess neuroticism, extraversion, psychoticism, and lying. The questionnaire was first translated into Turkish and then back translated. Subsequently, it was administered to 756 students from 4 different universities. The Fear Survey Inventory-III (FSI-III), Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scales (RSES), and Egna Minnen Betraffande Uppfostran (EMBU-C) were also administered in order to assess the questionnaire's validity. The internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and validity were subsequently evaluated. Factor analysis, similar to the original scale, yielded 4 factors; the neuroticism, extraversion, psychoticism, and lie scales. Kuder-Richardson alpha coefficients for the extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, and lie scales were 0.78, 0.65, 0.42, and 0.64, respectively, and the test-retest reliability of the scales was 0.84, 0.82, 0.69, and 0.69, respectively. The relationships between EPQR-A-48, FSI-III, EMBU-C, and RSES were examined in order to evaluate the construct validity of the scale. Our findings support the construct validity of the questionnaire. To investigate gender differences in scores on the subscales, MANOVA was conducted. The results indicated that there was a gender difference only in the lie scale scores. Our findings largely supported the reliability and validity of the questionnaire in a Turkish student sample. The psychometric characteristics of the Turkish version of the EPQR-A were discussed in light of the relevant literature.

Materials and Reliability Handbook for Semiconductor Optical and Electron Devices

CERN Document Server

Pearton, Stephen

2013-01-01

Materials and Reliability Handbook for Semiconductor Optical and Electron Devices provides comprehensive coverage of reliability procedures and approaches for electron and photonic devices. These include lasers and high speed electronics used in cell phones, satellites, data transmission systems and displays. Lifetime predictions for compound semiconductor devices are notoriously inaccurate due to the absence of standard protocols. Manufacturers have relied on extrapolation back to room temperature of accelerated testing at elevated temperature. This technique fails for scaled, high current density devices. Device failure is driven by electric field or current mechanisms or low activation energy processes that are masked by other mechanisms at high temperature. The Handbook addresses reliability engineering for III-V devices, including materials and electrical characterization, reliability testing, and electronic characterization. These are used to develop new simulation technologies for device operation and ...

A SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ESTIMATION METHOD TO NUCLEAR SAFETY SOFTWARE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEE-YONG PARK

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A method for estimating software reliability for nuclear safety software is proposed in this paper. This method is based on the software reliability growth model (SRGM, where the behavior of software failure is assumed to follow a non-homogeneous Poisson process. Two types of modeling schemes based on a particular underlying method are proposed in order to more precisely estimate and predict the number of software defects based on very rare software failure data. The Bayesian statistical inference is employed to estimate the model parameters by incorporating software test cases as a covariate into the model. It was identified that these models are capable of reasonably estimating the remaining number of software defects which directly affects the reactor trip functions. The software reliability might be estimated from these modeling equations, and one approach of obtaining software reliability value is proposed in this paper.

Matching Subsequences in Trees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li

2009-01-01

Given two rooted, labeled trees P and T the tree path subsequence problem is to determine which paths in P are subsequences of which paths in T. Here a path begins at the root and ends at a leaf. In this paper we propose this problem as a useful query primitive for XML data, and provide new...

Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

Science.gov (United States)

Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

2010-01-01

A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

Construct validity and reliability of the Finnish version of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Multanen, Juhani; Honkanen, Mikko; Häkkinen, Arja; Kiviranta, Ilkka

2018-05-22

The Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) is a commonly used knee assessment and outcome tool in both clinical work and research. However, it has not been formally translated and validated in Finnish. The purpose of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the KOOS questionnaire into Finnish and to determine its validity and reliability among Finnish middle-aged patients with knee injuries. KOOS was translated and culturally adapted from English into Finnish. Subsequently, 59 patients with knee injuries completed the Finnish version of KOOS, Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) and Numeric Pain Rating Scale (Pain-NRS). The same KOOS questionnaire was re-administered 2 weeks later. Psychometric assessment of the Finnish KOOS was performed by testing its construct validity and reliability by using internal consistency, test-retest reliability and measurement error. The floor and ceiling effects were also examined. The cross-cultural adaptation revealed only minor cultural differences and was well received by the patients. For construct validity, high to moderate Spearman's Correlation Coefficients were found between the KOOS subscales and the WOMAC, SF-36, and Pain-NRS subscales. The Cronbach's alpha was from 0.79 to 0.96 for all subscales indicating acceptable internal consistency. The test-retest reliability was good to excellent, with Intraclass Correlation Coefficients ranging from 0.73 to 0.86 for all KOOS subscales. The minimal detectable change ranged from 17 to 34 on an individual level and from 2 to 4 on a group level. No floor or ceiling effects were observed. This study yielded an appropriately translated and culturally adapted Finnish version of KOOS which demonstrated good validity and reliability. Our data indicate that the Finnish version of KOOS is suitable for assessment of the knee status of Finnish patients with different knee complaints. Further studies are needed to

Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Mazloumian

Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

Nucleus accumbens response to food cues predicts subsequent snack consumption in women and increased body mass index in those with reduced self-control.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Natalia S; Hinton, Elanor C; Parkinson, John A; Lawrence, Andrew D

2012-10-15

Individuals have difficulty controlling their food consumption, which is due in part to the ubiquity of tempting food cues in the environment. Individual differences in the propensity to attribute incentive (motivational) salience to and act on these cues may explain why some individuals eat more than others. Using fMRI in healthy women, we found that food cue related activity in the nucleus accumbens, a key brain region for food motivation and reward, was related to subsequent snack food consumption. However, both nucleus accumbens activation and snack food consumption were unrelated to self-reported hunger, or explicit wanting and liking for the snack. In contrast, food cue reactivity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex was associated with subjective hunger/appetite, but not with consumption. Whilst the food cue reactivity in the nucleus accumbens that predicted snack consumption was not directly related to body mass index (BMI), it was associated with increased BMI in individuals reporting low self-control. Our findings reveal a neural substrate underpinning automatic environmental influences on consumption in humans and demonstrate how self-control interacts with this response to predict BMI. Our data provide support for theoretical models that advocate a 'dual hit' of increased incentive salience attribution to food cues and poor self-control in determining vulnerability to overeating and overweight. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

2017-11-01

Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Study of complete interconnect reliability for a GaAs MMIC power amplifier

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Qian; Wu, Haifeng; Chen, Shan-ji; Jia, Guoqing; Jiang, Wei; Chen, Chao

2018-05-01

By combining the finite element analysis (FEA) and artificial neural network (ANN) technique, the complete prediction of interconnect reliability for a monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) power amplifier (PA) at the both of direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) operation conditions is achieved effectively in this article. As a example, a MMIC PA is modelled to study the electromigration failure of interconnect. This is the first time to study the interconnect reliability for an MMIC PA at the conditions of DC and AC operation simultaneously. By training the data from FEA, a high accuracy ANN model for PA reliability is constructed. Then, basing on the reliability database which is obtained from the ANN model, it can give important guidance for improving the reliability design for IC.

Transparent reliability model for fault-tolerant safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodsberg, Lars; Hokstad, Per

1997-01-01

A reliability model is presented which may serve as a tool for identification of cost-effective configurations and operating philosophies of computer-based process safety systems. The main merit of the model is the explicit relationship in the mathematical formulas between failure cause and the means used to improve system reliability such as self-test, redundancy, preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance. A component failure taxonomy has been developed which allows the analyst to treat hardware failures, human failures, and software failures of automatic systems in an integrated manner. Furthermore, the taxonomy distinguishes between failures due to excessive environmental stresses and failures initiated by humans during engineering and operation. Attention has been given to develop a transparent model which provides predictions which are in good agreement with observed system performance, and which is applicable for non-experts in the field of reliability

Reliable and sensitive physical testing of elite trapeze sailors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bay, Jonathan; Bojsen-Møller, Jens; Nordsborg, Nikolai Baastrup

2018-01-01

It was investigated, if a newly developed discipline specific test for elite-level trapeze sailors is reli-able and sensitive. Furthermore, the physical demands of trapeze sailing were examined. In part 1, nine national team athletes were accustomed to a simulated sailing test, which subsequently....... 265 ± 45W, Psailing was 54.5 ± 7.2% VO2max , 75.1 ± 3.1% HRmax and 5.8 ± 2.7 mM, respectively. However, VO2 and HR were substantially higher for periods of the race...... as peak values were 83.5 ± 11.4% and 89.9 ± 1.7% of max, respectively. In conclusion, the present test is reliable and sensitive, thus providing a sailing specific alternative to traditional physical testing of elite trapeze sailors. Additionally, on-water rac-ing requires moderate aerobic energy...

An overview of the reliability prediction related aspects of high power IGBTs in wind power applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Busca, Christian; Teodorescu, Remus; Blaabjerg, Frede

2011-01-01

Reliability is becoming more and more important as the size and number of installed Wind Turbines (WTs) increases. Very high reliability is especially important for offshore WTs because the maintenance and repair of such WTs in case of failures can be very expensive. WT manufacturers need...

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-10-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Software reliability growth model for safety systems of nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thirugnana Murthy, D.; Murali, N.; Sridevi, T.; Satya Murty, S.A.V.; Velusamy, K.

2014-01-01

The demand for complex software systems has increased more rapidly than the ability to design, implement, test, and maintain them, and the reliability of software systems has become a major concern for our, modern society.Software failures have impaired several high visibility programs in space, telecommunications, defense and health industries. Besides the costs involved, it setback the projects. The ways of quantifying it and using it for improvement and control of the software development and maintenance process. This paper discusses need for systematic approaches for measuring and assuring software reliability which is a major share of project development resources. It covers the reliability models with the concern on 'Reliability Growth'. It includes data collection on reliability, statistical estimation and prediction, metrics and attributes of product architecture, design, software development, and the operational environment. Besides its use for operational decisions like deployment, it includes guiding software architecture, development, testing and verification and validation. (author)

Climatic Reliability of Electronics: Early Prediction and Control of Contamination and humidity effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Verdingovas, Vadimas

were to a significant extent guided by the climatic reliability issues the electronic companies are currently facing. The research in this thesis is focused on the synergistic effects of process related contamination, humidity, potential bias, and PCBA design related aspects, while various tests...... assuming parasitic circuit due to water layer formation on the PCBA surface. The chapters 2-5 review the factors influencing the climatic reliability of electronics namely humidity interaction with materials and ionic contamination on the PCBA surface, common types and sources of ionic contamination...... in electronics, the test methods and techniques, and failure mechanisms related to climate and contamination. Chapter 6 summarizes the materials and experimental methods employed in this thesis. The results of various investigations are presented as individual research papers as published or in the draft form...

Design of thermoelectric modules for both mechanical reliability and performance using FE simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarhadi, Ali; Bjørk, Rasmus; Pryds, Nini

for these two objectives. The current study deals with FE simulation of the TE modules to optimize their geometrical dimension in terms of mechanical reliability and performance. First, FE simulation of a TE module consisting of bismuth telluride alloys is carried out and the induced thermal stresses, output......, the geometrical dimensions of the TE elements for both mechanical reliability and performance are optimized to obtain a compromise design. The present work provides a basis for optimizing the TE modules in terms of their life time and performance.......Thermo-mechanical modeling of the TE modules provides an efficient tool for assessing the mechanical strength of the modules against the induced thermal stresses and subsequently optimizing them in terms of the mechanical reliability. However, the design of TE modules in terms of mechanical...

Expanding Reliability Generalization Methods with KR-21 Estimates: An RG Study of the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Ginny G.; White, Amy E.; Henson, Robin K.

2002-01-01

Conducted a reliability generalizability study on the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (CSEI; S. Coopersmith, 1967) to examine the variability of reliability estimates across studies and to identify study characteristics that may predict this variability. Results show that reliability for CSEI scores can vary considerably, especially at the…

Reliability and accuracy of Crystaleye spectrophotometric system.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Li; Tan, Jian Guo; Zhou, Jian Feng; Yang, Xu; Du, Yang; Wang, Fang Ping

2010-01-01

to develop an in vitro shade-measuring model to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the Crystaleye spectrophotometric system, a newly developed spectrophotometer. four shade guides, VITA Classical, VITA 3D-Master, Chromascop and Vintage Halo NCC, were measured with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer in a standardised model, ten times for 107 shade tabs. The shade-matching results and the CIE L*a*b* values of the cervical, body and incisal regions for each measurement were automatically analysed using the supporting software. Reliability and accuracy were calculated for each shade tab both in percentage and in colour difference (ΔE). Difference was analysed by one-way ANOVA in the cervical, body and incisal regions. range of reliability was 88.81% to 98.97% and 0.13 to 0.24 ΔE units, and that of accuracy was 44.05% to 91.25% and 1.03 to 1.89 ΔE units. Significant differences in reliability and accuracy were found between the body region and the cervical and incisal regions. Comparisons made among regions and shade guides revealed that evaluation in ΔE was prone to disclose the differences. measurements with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer had similar, high reliability in different shade guides and regions, indicating predictable repeated measurements. Accuracy in the body region was high and less variable compared with the cervical and incisal regions.

Physiognomy: Personality Traits Prediction by Learning

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Ting Zhang; Ri-Zhen Qin; Qiu-Lei Dong; Wei Gao; Hua-Rong Xu; Zhan-Yi Hu

2017-01-01

Evaluating individuals' personality traits and intelligence from their faces plays a crucial role in interpersonal relationship and important social events such as elections and court sentences.To assess the possible correlations between personality traits (also measured intelligence) and face images,we first construct a dataset consisting of face photographs,personality measurements,and intelligence measurements.Then,we build an end-to-end convolutional neural network for prediction of personality traits and intelligence to investigate whether self-reported personality traits and intelligence can be predicted reliably from a face image.To our knowledge,it is the first work where deep learning is applied to this problem.Experimental results show the following three points:1)"Rule-consciousness" and "Tension" can be reliably predicted from face images.2) It is difficult,if not impossible,to predict intelligence from face images,a finding in accord with previous studies.3) Convolutional neural network (CNN) features outperform traditional handcrafted features in predicting traits.

GenMol trademark supramolecular descriptors predicting reliable sensitivity of energetic compounds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benazet, Stephane; Jacob, Guy [SNPE Materiaux Energetiques, Vert Le Petit (France); Pepe, Gerard [CINaM UPR-CNRS 3118, Campus de Luminy Case, Marseille (France)

2009-04-15

Structure/activity relationship methodology has been applied to the problem of the prediction of the energetic molecule's sensitivity. This parameter knowledge is of great importance to increase the safety of operations in the field of synthesis and manipulation of such compounds. It has been shown that descriptors of the solid state interactions and surface topology issued from GenMol {sup trademark} software calculations greatly enhanced the correlation between measured and predicted sensitivity. As the structural parameters used to establish the descriptors are experimental ones, their physical significance is particularly preserved which allows to give a good prediction for impact or friction sensitivity by the so defined descriptors. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Addressing the reliability issues of intelligent well systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drakeley, Brian; Douglas, Neil

2000-01-01

New Technology receives its fair share of 'risk aversion' both in good and not so good economic times from oil and gas operators evaluating application opportunities. This paper presents details of a strategy developed and implemented to bring to market an Intelligent Well system designed from day one to maximize system reliability, while offering the customer a high degree of choice in system functionality. A team of engineers and scientists skilled in all aspects of Reliability Analysis and Assessment analyzed the Intelligent Well system under development, gathered reliability performance data from other sources and using various analytical techniques developed matrices of system survival probability estimates for various scenarios. Interaction with the system and design engineers has been an on-going process as designs are modified to maximize reliability predictions and extensive qualification test programs developed from the component to the overall system level. The techniques used in the development project will be presented. A comparative model now exists that facilitates the evaluation of future design alternative considerations and also contains databases that can be readily updated with actual field data etc. (author)

Subsequence Automata with Default Transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Skjoldjensen, Frederik Rye

2016-01-01

of states and transitions) of the subsequence automaton is O(nσ) and that this bound is asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we consider subsequence automata with default transitions, that is, special transitions to be taken only if none of the regular transitions match the current character, and which do...... not consume the current character. We show that with default transitions, much smaller subsequence automata are possible, and provide a full trade-off between the size of the automaton and the delay, i.e., the maximum number of consecutive default transitions followed before consuming a character......(nσ) and delay O(1), thus matching the bound for the standard subsequence automaton construction. The key component of our result is a novel hierarchical automata construction of independent interest....

Does Immediate Pain Relief After an Injection into the Sacroiliac Joint with Anesthetic and Corticosteroid Predict Subsequent Pain Relief?

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Byron J; Huynh, Lisa; Levin, Josh; Rinkaekan, Pranathip; Kordi, Ramin; Kennedy, David J

2018-02-01

To determine if immediate pain response following an injection with local anesthetic and corticosteroid predicts subsequent relief. Prospective observational cohort. An institutional review board-approved prospective study from a single academic medical center. Patients with clinical diagnosis of sacroiliac (SIJ) pain and referred for SIJ injection were enrolled; 1 cc of 2% lidocaine and 1 cc of triamcinolone 40 mg/mL were injected into the SIJ. Pain score on 0-10 numeric rating scale (NRS) during provocation maneuvers was recorded immediately before injection, immediately after injection, and at two and four weeks of follow-up. Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was also recorded. Various cutoffs were identified to establish positive anesthetic response and successful outcomes at follow-up. These were used to calculated likelihood ratios. Of those with 100% anesthetic response, six of 11 (54.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI]+/-29.4%, +LR 2.6, 95% CI = 1.1-5.9) demonstrated 50% or greater pain relief at follow-up, and four of 11 (36.5%, 95% CI+/-28.4%, +LR 3.00, 95% CI = 1.4-5.1) had 100% relief at two to four weeks. Fourteen of 14 (100%, 95% CI+/-21.5%, -LR 0.0, 95% CI = 0.0-2.1) with an initial negative block failed to achieve 100% relief at follow-up. Patients who fail to achieve initial relief after SIJ injection with anesthetic and steroid are very unlikely to achieve significant pain relief at follow-up; negative likelihood ratios (LR) in this study, based on how success is defined, range between 0 and 0.9. Clinically significant positive likelihood ratios of anesthetic response to SIJ injection are more limited and less robust, but are valuable in predicting 50% relief or 100% relief at two to four weeks. © 2017 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

Science.gov (United States)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

2008-11-25

A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

Reliability and Validity of Prototype Diagnosis for Adolescent Psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Haggerty, Greg; Zodan, Jennifer; Mehra, Ashwin; Zubair, Ayyan; Ghosh, Krishnendu; Siefert, Caleb J; Sinclair, Samuel J; DeFife, Jared

2016-04-01

The current study investigated the interrater reliability and validity of prototype ratings of 5 common adolescent psychiatric disorders: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder, major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder. One hundred fifty-seven adolescent inpatient participants consented to participate in this study. We compared ratings from 2 inpatient clinicians, blinded to each other's ratings and patient measures, after their separate initial diagnostic interview to assess interrater reliability. Prototype ratings completed by clinicians after their initial diagnostic interview with adolescent inpatients and outpatients were compared with patient-reported behavior problems and parents' report of their child's behavioral problems. Prototype ratings demonstrated good interrater reliability. Clinicians' prototype ratings showed predicted relationships with patient-reported behavior problems and parent-reported behavior problems. Prototype matching seems to be a possible alternative for psychiatric diagnosis. Prototype ratings showed good interrater reliability based on clinicians unique experiences with the patient (as opposed to video-/audio-recorded material) with no training.

Subsequence automata with default transitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bille, Philip; Gørtz, Inge Li; Skjoldjensen, Frederik Rye

2017-01-01

of states and transitions) of the subsequence automaton is O(nσ) and that this bound is asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we consider subsequence automata with default transitions, that is, special transitions to be taken only if none of the regular transitions match the current character, and which do...... not consume the current character. We show that with default transitions, much smaller subsequence automata are possible, and provide a full trade-off between the size of the automaton and the delay, i.e., the maximum number of consecutive default transitions followed before consuming a character......(1), thus matching the bound for the standard subsequence automaton construction. Finally, we generalize the result to multiple strings. The key component of our result is a novel hierarchical automata construction of independent interest....

Brain atrophy and lesion load predict long term disability in multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Popescu, Veronica; Agosta, Federica; Hulst, Hanneke E

2013-01-01

To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS).......To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS)....