WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliability risk management

  1. Systems Reliability Framework for Surface Water Sustainability and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J. R.; Yeghiazarian, L.

    2016-12-01

    With microbial contamination posing a serious threat to the availability of clean water across the world, it is necessary to develop a framework that evaluates the safety and sustainability of water systems in respect to non-point source fecal microbial contamination. The concept of water safety is closely related to the concept of failure in reliability theory. In water quality problems, the event of failure can be defined as the concentration of microbial contamination exceeding a certain standard for usability of water. It is pertinent in watershed management to know the likelihood of such an event of failure occurring at a particular point in space and time. Microbial fate and transport are driven by environmental processes taking place in complex, multi-component, interdependent environmental systems that are dynamic and spatially heterogeneous, which means these processes and therefore their influences upon microbial transport must be considered stochastic and variable through space and time. A physics-based stochastic model of microbial dynamics is presented that propagates uncertainty using a unique sampling method based on artificial neural networks to produce a correlation between watershed characteristics and spatial-temporal probabilistic patterns of microbial contamination. These results are used to address the question of water safety through several sustainability metrics: reliability, vulnerability, resilience and a composite sustainability index. System reliability is described uniquely though the temporal evolution of risk along watershed points or pathways. Probabilistic resilience describes how long the system is above a certain probability of failure, and the vulnerability metric describes how the temporal evolution of risk changes throughout a hierarchy of failure levels. Additionally our approach allows for the identification of contributions in microbial contamination and uncertainty from specific pathways and sources. We expect that this

  2. Commentary: Risk Management and Reliability Design for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Dennis L.; Cranwell, Robert M.; Hunter, Regina L.

    1999-05-28

    Where there is a significant actuarial basis for decision making (e.g., the occurrence of fires in single-family dwellings), there is little incentive for formal risk management. Formal risk assessments are most useful in those cases where the value of the structure is high, many people may be affected, the societal perception of risk is high, consequences of a mishap would be severe, and the actuarial uncertainty is large. For these cases, there is little opportunity to obtain the necessary experiential data to make informed decisions, and the consequences in terms of money, lives, and societal confidence are severe enough to warrant a formal risk assessment. Other important factors include the symbolic value of the structure and vulnerability to single point failures. It is unlikely that formal risk management and assessment practices will or should replace the proven institutions of building codes and engineering practices. Nevertheless, formal risk assessment can provide valuable insights into the hazards threatening high-value and high-risk (perceived or actual) buildings and structures, which can in turn be translated into improved public health, safety, and security. The key is to choose and apply the right assessment tool to match the structure in question. Design-for-reliability concepts can be applied to buildings, bridges, transportation sys- tems, dams, and other structures. The use of these concepts could have the dual benefits of lowering life-cycle costs by reducing the necessity for maintenance and repair and of enhancing the saiiety and security of the structure's users.

  3. Optimal Bi-Objective Redundancy Allocation for Systems Reliability and Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Jafarian, Ahmad; Azbari, Mostafa E.

    2016-01-01

    In the big data era, systems reliability is critical to effective systems risk management. In this paper, a novel multiobjective approach, with hybridization of a known algorithm called NSGA-II and an adaptive population-based simulated annealing (APBSA) method is developed to solve the systems...... of domination; and 4) data envelopment analysis. The computational studies have shown that the proposed algorithm is an effective approach for systems reliability and risk management....

  4. The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

    2012-01-01

    Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality

  5. Risk and Reliability of Infrastructure Asset Management Workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2006-01-01

    ...) in collaboration with Headquarters, USACE and in support of the initiatives on asset management. Over 75 people attended representing 6 of 8 Corps divisions, many districts, HQ, ERDC, Institute for Water Resources and academia...

  6. Development of component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshihiro Tomioka; Mitsumasa Hirano; Shunsuke Kondo

    1997-01-01

    The author presents the outline of development of the component reliability data for PSA and risk based management in Japan. In the first part following the introduction, the development process is described. The next part describes issues discussed in the course of the development, which are treatment of zero failure data, error factor, estimation of unavailable failure rate and integral test

  7. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], e-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, e-mail: silvaem@cdtn.br, e-mail: aclc@cdtn.br, e-mail: reissc@cdtn.br

    2009-07-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  8. Safety, reliability, risk management and human factors: an integrated engineering approach applied to nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Silva, Eliane Magalhaes Pereira da; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da; Reis, Sergio Carneiro dos

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy has an important engineering legacy to share with the conventional industry. Much of the development of the tools related to safety, reliability, risk management, and human factors are associated with nuclear plant processes, mainly because the public concern about nuclear power generation. Despite the close association between these subjects, there are some important different approaches. The reliability engineering approach uses several techniques to minimize the component failures that cause the failure of the complex systems. These techniques include, for instance, redundancy, diversity, standby sparing, safety factors, and reliability centered maintenance. On the other hand system safety is primarily concerned with hazard management, that is, the identification, evaluation and control of hazards. Rather than just look at failure rates or engineering strengths, system safety would examine the interactions among system components. The events that cause accidents may be complex combinations of component failures, faulty maintenance, design errors, human actions, or actuation of instrumentation and control. Then, system safety deals with a broader spectrum of risk management, including: ergonomics, legal requirements, quality control, public acceptance, political considerations, and many other non-technical influences. Taking care of these subjects individually can compromise the completeness of the analysis and the measures associated with both risk reduction, and safety and reliability increasing. Analyzing together the engineering systems and controls of a nuclear facility, their management systems and operational procedures, and the human factors engineering, many benefits can be realized. This paper proposes an integration of these issues based on the application of systems theory. (author)

  9. Optimal Bi-Objective Redundancy Allocation for Systems Reliability and Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindan, Kannan; Jafarian, Ahmad; Azbari, Mostafa E; Choi, Tsan-Ming

    2016-08-01

    In the big data era, systems reliability is critical to effective systems risk management. In this paper, a novel multiobjective approach, with hybridization of a known algorithm called NSGA-II and an adaptive population-based simulated annealing (APBSA) method is developed to solve the systems reliability optimization problems. In the first step, to create a good algorithm, we use a coevolutionary strategy. Since the proposed algorithm is very sensitive to parameter values, the response surface method is employed to estimate the appropriate parameters of the algorithm. Moreover, to examine the performance of our proposed approach, several test problems are generated, and the proposed hybrid algorithm and other commonly known approaches (i.e., MOGA, NRGA, and NSGA-II) are compared with respect to four performance measures: 1) mean ideal distance; 2) diversification metric; 3) percentage of domination; and 4) data envelopment analysis. The computational studies have shown that the proposed algorithm is an effective approach for systems reliability and risk management.

  10. Human reliability and risk management in the transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuler, S.; Kasperson, R.E.; Ratick, S.

    1989-01-01

    This paper summarizes work on human factor contributions to risks from spent nuclear fuel transportation. Human participation may have significant effects on the levels and types of risks by enabling or initiating incidents and exacerbating adverse consequences. Human errors are defined to be the result of mismatches between perceived system state and actual system state. In complex transportation systems such mismatches may be distributed in time (e.g., during different stages of design, implementation, operation, maintenance) and location (e.g., human error, its identification, and its recovery may be geographically and institutionally separate). Risk management programs may decrease the probability of undesirable events or attenuate the consequences of mismatches. This paper presents a methodology to identify the scope and types of human-task mismatches and to identify potential management options for their prevention, mitigation, or recovery. A review of transportation accident databases, in conjunction with human error models, is used to develop a taxonomy of human errors during design for the pre-identification of potential mismatches or after incidents have occurred to evaluate their causes. Risk management options to improve human reliability are identified by a matrix that relates the multiple stages of a spent nuclear fuel transportation system to management options (e.g., training, data analysis, regulation). The paper concludes with examples to illustrate how the methodology may be applied. (author)

  11. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  12. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  13. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: luquetti@ien.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  14. Assessing the reliability, predictive and construct validity of historical, clinical and risk management-20 (HCR-20) in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sada, Andrea; Robles-García, Rebeca; Martínez-López, Nicolás; Hernández-Ramírez, Rafael; Tovilla-Zarate, Carlos-Alfonso; López-Munguía, Fernando; Suárez-Alvarez, Enrique; Ayala, Xochitl; Fresán, Ana

    2016-08-01

    Assessing dangerousness to gauge the likelihood of future violent behaviour has become an integral part of clinical mental health practice in forensic and non-forensic psychiatric settings, one of the most effective instruments for this being the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20). To examine the HCR-20 factor structure in Mexican psychiatric inpatients and to obtain its predictive validity and reliability for use in this population. In total, 225 patients diagnosed with psychotic, affective or personality disorders were included. The HCR-20 was applied at hospital admission and violent behaviours were assessed during psychiatric hospitalization using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). Construct validity, predictive validity and internal consistency were determined. Violent behaviour remains more severe in patients classified in the high-risk group during hospitalization. Fifteen items displayed adequate communalities in the original designated domains of the HCR-20 and internal consistency of the instruments was high. The HCR-20 is a suitable instrument for predicting violence risk in Mexican psychiatric inpatients.

  15. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  16. Computer-aided reliability and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leicht, R.; Wingender, H.J.

    1989-01-01

    Activities in the fields of reliability and risk analyses have led to the development of particular software tools which now are combined in the PC-based integrated CARARA system. The options available in this system cover a wide range of reliability-oriented tasks, like organizing raw failure data in the component/event data bank FDB, performing statistical analysis of those data with the program FDA, managing the resulting parameters in the reliability data bank RDB, and performing fault tree analysis with the fault tree code FTL or evaluating the risk of toxic or radioactive material release with the STAR code. (orig.)

  17. Reliability of objects in aerospace technologies and beyond: Holistic risk management approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shai, Yair; Ingman, D.; Suhir, E.

    A “ high level” , deductive-reasoning-based (“ holistic” ), approach is aimed at the direct analysis of the behavior of a system as a whole, rather than with an attempt to understand the system's behavior by conducting first a “ low level” , inductive-reasoning-based, analysis of the behavior and the contributions of the system's elements. The holistic view on treatment is widely accepted in medical practice, and “ holistic health” concept upholds that all the aspects of people's needs (psychological, physical or social), should be seen as a whole, and that a disease is caused by the combined effect of physical, emotional, spiritual, social and environmental imbalances. Holistic reasoning is applied in our analysis to model the behavior of engineering products (“ species” ) subjected to various economic, marketing, and reliability “ health” factors. Vehicular products (cars, aircraft, boats, etc.), e.g., might be still robust enough, but could be out-of-date, or functionally obsolete, or their further use might be viewed as unjustifiably expensive. High-level-performance functions (HLPF) are the essential feature of the approach. HLPFs are, in effect, “ signatures” of the “ species” of interest. The HLPFs describe, in a “ holistic” , and certainly in a probabilistic, way, numerous complex multi-dependable relations among the representatives of the “ species” under consideration. ; umerous inter-related “ stresses” , both actual (“ physical” ) and nonphysical, which affect the probabilistic predictions are inherently being taken into account by the HLPFs. There is no need, and might even be counter-productive, to conduct tedious, time- and labor-consuming experimentations and to invest significant amount of time and resources to accumulate “ representative statistics” to predict - he governing probabilistic characteristics of the system behavior, such as, e.g., life expectancy of a particular type of products.

  18. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  19. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  20. Nuclear power plant reliability database management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meslin, Th.; Aufort, P.

    1996-04-01

    In the framework of the development of a probabilistic safety project on site (notion of living PSA), Saint Laurent des Eaux NPP implements a specific EDF reliability database. The main goals of this project at Saint Laurent des Eaux are: to expand risk analysis and to constitute an effective local basis of thinking about operating safety by requiring the participation of all departments of a power plant: analysis of all potential operating transients, unavailability consequences... that means to go further than a simple culture of applying operating rules; to involve nuclear power plant operators in experience feedback and its analysis, especially by following up behaviour of components and of safety functions; to allow plant safety managers to outline their decisions facing safety authorities for notwithstanding, preventive maintenance programme, operating incident evaluation. To hit these goals requires feedback data, tools, techniques and development of skills. The first step is to obtain specific reliability data on the site. Raw data come from plant maintenance management system which processes all maintenance activities and keeps in memory all the records of component failures and maintenance activities. Plant specific reliability data are estimated with a Bayesian model which combines these validated raw data with corporate generic data. This approach allow to provide reliability data for main components modelled in PSA, to check the consistency of the maintenance program (RCM), to verify hypothesis made at the design about component reliability. A number of studies, related to components reliability as well as decision making process of specific incident risk evaluation have been carried out. This paper provides also an overview of the process management set up on site from raw database to specific reliability database in compliance with established corporate objectives. (authors). 4 figs

  1. Nuclear power plant reliability database management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meslin, Th [Electricite de France (EDF), 41 - Saint-Laurent-des-Eaux (France); Aufort, P

    1996-04-01

    In the framework of the development of a probabilistic safety project on site (notion of living PSA), Saint Laurent des Eaux NPP implements a specific EDF reliability database. The main goals of this project at Saint Laurent des Eaux are: to expand risk analysis and to constitute an effective local basis of thinking about operating safety by requiring the participation of all departments of a power plant: analysis of all potential operating transients, unavailability consequences... that means to go further than a simple culture of applying operating rules; to involve nuclear power plant operators in experience feedback and its analysis, especially by following up behaviour of components and of safety functions; to allow plant safety managers to outline their decisions facing safety authorities for notwithstanding, preventive maintenance programme, operating incident evaluation. To hit these goals requires feedback data, tools, techniques and development of skills. The first step is to obtain specific reliability data on the site. Raw data come from plant maintenance management system which processes all maintenance activities and keeps in memory all the records of component failures and maintenance activities. Plant specific reliability data are estimated with a Bayesian model which combines these validated raw data with corporate generic data. This approach allow to provide reliability data for main components modelled in PSA, to check the consistency of the maintenance program (RCM), to verify hypothesis made at the design about component reliability. A number of studies, related to components reliability as well as decision making process of specific incident risk evaluation have been carried out. This paper provides also an overview of the process management set up on site from raw database to specific reliability database in compliance with established corporate objectives. (authors). 4 figs.

  2. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  3. Reliability and risk treatment centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pexa, Martin; Hladik, Tomas; Ales, Zdenek; Legat, Vaclav; Muller, Miroslav; Valasek, Petr; Havlu, Vit

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for application of well-known tools - RCM, RBI and SIF pro - with the aim to treat risks by means of suitable maintenance. The basis of the new methodology is the complex application of all three methods at the same time and not separately as is typical today. The proposed methodology suggests having just one managing team for reliability and risk treatment centred maintenance (RRTCM), employing existing RCM, RBI, and SIFpro tools concurrently. This approach allows for significant reduction of engineering activities' duration. In the proposed methodology these activities are staged into five phases and structured to eliminate all duplication resulting from separate application of the three tools. The newly proposed methodology saves 45% to 50% of the engineering workload and dequate significant financial savings.

  4. Reliability and risk treatment centered maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pexa, Martin; Hladik, Tomas; Ales, Zdenek; Legat, Vaclav; Muller, Miroslav; Valasek, Petr [Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycka (Czech Republic); Havlu, Vit [Unipetrol A. S, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2014-10-15

    We propose a new methodology for application of well-known tools - RCM, RBI and SIF pro - with the aim to treat risks by means of suitable maintenance. The basis of the new methodology is the complex application of all three methods at the same time and not separately as is typical today. The proposed methodology suggests having just one managing team for reliability and risk treatment centred maintenance (RRTCM), employing existing RCM, RBI, and SIFpro tools concurrently. This approach allows for significant reduction of engineering activities' duration. In the proposed methodology these activities are staged into five phases and structured to eliminate all duplication resulting from separate application of the three tools. The newly proposed methodology saves 45% to 50% of the engineering workload and dequate significant financial savings.

  5. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  6. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  7. Real Time Grid Reliability Management 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joe; Eto, Joe; Lesieutre, Bernard; Lewis, Nancy Jo; Parashar, Manu

    2008-07-07

    The increased need to manage California?s electricity grid in real time is a result of the ongoing transition from a system operated by vertically-integrated utilities serving native loads to one operated by an independent system operator supporting competitive energy markets. During this transition period, the traditional approach to reliability management -- construction of new transmission lines -- has not been pursued due to unresolved issues related to the financing and recovery of transmission project costs. In the absence of investments in new transmission infrastructure, the best strategy for managing reliability is to equip system operators with better real-time information about actual operating margins so that they can better understand and manage the risk of operating closer to the edge. A companion strategy is to address known deficiencies in offline modeling tools that are needed to ground the use of improved real-time tools. This project: (1) developed and conducted first-ever demonstrations of two prototype real-time software tools for voltage security assessment and phasor monitoring; and (2) prepared a scoping study on improving load and generator response models. Additional funding through two separate subsequent work authorizations has already been provided to build upon the work initiated in this project.

  8. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nathwani, J.S.

    1993-01-01

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  9. Systems reliability in high risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunns, D.M.

    1974-12-01

    A summary is given of five papers and the discussion of a seminar promoted by the newly-formed National Centre of Systems Reliability. The topics covered include hazard analysis, reliability assessment, and risk assessment in both nuclear and non-nuclear industries. (U.K.)

  10. Operational reliability management; Gestao da confiabilidade operacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bressan, Edemir [Refinaria Alberto Pasqualini (REFAP), Canoas, RS (Brazil). Setor de Tecnologia de Equipamentos

    2000-07-01

    It is described the PETROBRAS Alberto Pasqualini Refinery process plant reliability management, strategies, maintenance organizational structure, management processes, predictive and preventive maintenance, condition monitoring techniques, reliability metrics, pointing out a need for close work relationship between production, maintenance and project engineering functions with highly qualified and committed proper teams, in order to reach one of the highest mechanical availability among Latin America refineries. (author)

  11. Quality and reliability management and its applications

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace.   Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice.    Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

  12. Mercury emissions from flooded soils and sediments in Germany are an underestimated problem: challenges for reliable risk assessments and management strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rinklebe J.

    2013-04-01

    -polluted floodplain soils in Germany and that those emissions are an underestimated problem. Current needs for reliable risk assessments, the induced implications for authorities, and future challenges will be discussed. The presented data will contribute to a better understanding of seasonal dynamics of Hg fluxes and its controlling factors. This presentation should be of large interest for a wide international audience, such as environmental scientists and managers, applied ecologists, and authorities.

  13. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  14. Methodology for allocating reliability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

    1986-05-01

    This report describes a methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants. The work investigates the technical feasibility of allocating reliability and risk, which are expressed in a set of global safety criteria and which may not necessarily be rigid, to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner. The report also provides general discussions on the problem of reliability and risk allocation. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm. The work mainly addresses the first two steps of a typical decision analysis, i.e., (1) identifying alternatives, and (2) generating information on outcomes of the alternatives, by performing a multiobjective optimization on a PRA model and reliability cost functions. The multiobjective optimization serves as the guiding principle to reliability and risk allocation. The concept of ''noninferiority'' is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The final step of decision analysis, i.e., assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided, and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation, preference assessment, and uncertainty are discussed. 29 refs., 44 figs., 39 tabs

  15. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magne, L.

    1999-01-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  16. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  17. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  18. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  19. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  20. Reliability measures in managing GI bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenberg, Amnon

    2012-06-01

    Multiple procedures and devices are used in a complex interplay to diagnose and treat GI bleeding. To model how a large variety of diagnostic and therapeutic components interact in the successful management of GI bleeding. The analysis uses the concept of reliability block diagrams from probability theory to model management outcome. Separate components of the management process are arranged in a serial or parallel fashion. If the outcome depends on the function of each component individually, such components are modeled to be arranged in series. If components complement each other and can mutually compensate for each of their failures, such components are arranged in a parallel fashion. General endoscopy practice. Patients with GI bleeding of unknown etiology. All available endoscopic and radiographic means to diagnose and treat GI bleeding. Process reliability in achieving hemostasis. Serial arrangements tend to reduce process reliability, whereas parallel arrangements increase it. Whenever possible, serial components should be bridged and complemented by additional alternative (parallel) routes of operation. Parallel components with low individual reliability can still contribute to overall process reliability as long as they function independently of other pre-existing alternatives. Probability of success associated with individual components is partly unknown. Modeling management of GI bleeding by a reliability block diagram provides a useful tool in assessing the impact of individual endoscopic techniques and administrative structures on the overall outcome. Copyright © 2012 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Aspect Of Reliability In Airport Business Continuity Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozłowski Michał

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the issue of ensuring the continuity of the operation at the airport. Requirements and objectives relating to business continuity management have been defined in accordance with ISO 22301 international standard. Conducted a study of reliability issues operation of the airport. Defined the function of the reliability and operational readiness of the airport. Presented the concept of using function of operational readiness in the risk assessment for the continuity of the airport.

  2. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  3. DIRAC reliable data management for LHCb

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, A C

    2008-01-01

    DIRAC, LHCb's Grid Workload and Data Management System, utilizes WLCG resources and middleware components to perform distributed computing tasks satisfying LHCb's Computing Model. The Data Management System (DMS) handles data transfer and data access within LHCb. Its scope ranges from the output of the LHCb Online system to Grid-enabled storage for all data types. It supports metadata for these files in replica and bookkeeping catalogues, allowing dataset selection and localization. The DMS controls the movement of files in a redundant fashion whilst providing utilities for accessing all metadata. To do these tasks effectively the DMS requires complete self integrity between its components and external physical storage. The DMS provides highly redundant management of all LHCb data to leverage available storage resources and to manage transient errors in underlying services. It provides data driven and reliable distribution of files as well as reliable job output upload, utilizing VO Boxes at LHCb Tier1 sites ...

  4. Enterprise risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

  5. Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalmeir, Michael; Gataullin, Yunir; Indrajit, Agung

    HERMES (Highly Enhanced Risk Management Emergency Satellite) is potential European satellite mission for global flood management, being implemented by Technical University Munich and European Space Agency. With its main instrument - a reliable and precise Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) antenna...

  6. Risk management and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

  7. DIRAC: reliable data management for LHCb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A C; Tsaregorodtsev, A

    2008-01-01

    DIRAC, LHCb's Grid Workload and Data Management System, utilizes WLCG resources and middleware components to perform distributed computing tasks satisfying LHCb's Computing Model. The Data Management System (DMS) handles data transfer and data access within LHCb. Its scope ranges from the output of the LHCb Online system to Grid-enabled storage for all data types. It supports metadata for these files in replica and bookkeeping catalogues, allowing dataset selection and localization. The DMS controls the movement of files in a redundant fashion whilst providing utilities for accessing all metadata. To do these tasks effectively the DMS requires complete self integrity between its components and external physical storage. The DMS provides highly redundant management of all LHCb data to leverage available storage resources and to manage transient errors in underlying services. It provides data driven and reliable distribution of files as well as reliable job output upload, utilizing VO Boxes at LHCb Tier1 sites to prevent data loss. This paper presents several examples of mechanisms implemented in the DMS to increase reliability, availability and integrity, highlighting successful design choices and limitations discovered

  8. An Evaluation Method of Equipment Reliability Configuration Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Feng, Weijia; Zhang, Wei; Li, Yuan

    2018-01-01

    At present, many equipment development companies have been aware of the great significance of reliability of the equipment development. But, due to the lack of effective management evaluation method, it is very difficult for the equipment development company to manage its own reliability work. Evaluation method of equipment reliability configuration management is to determine the reliability management capabilities of equipment development company. Reliability is not only designed, but also managed to achieve. This paper evaluates the reliability management capabilities by reliability configuration capability maturity model(RCM-CMM) evaluation method.

  9. Risk management at university

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

    2013-01-01

    This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

  10. Management of business risks

    OpenAIRE

    BAZARBAY A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

  11. Reliability Based Management of Marine Fouling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro; Hansen, Peter Friis

    1999-01-01

    The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification of uncertain......The present paper describes the results of a recent study on the application of methods from structural reliability to optimise management of marine fouling on jacket type structures.In particular the study addresses effects on the structural response by assessment and quantification...... of uncertainties of a set of parameters. These are the seasonal variation of marine fouling parameters, the wave loading (taking into account the seasonal variation in sea-state statistics), and the effects of spatial variations and seasonal effects of marine fouling parameters. Comparison of design values...

  12. Rethinking risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, H.F.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

  13. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  14. PROVIDING RELIABILITY OF HUMAN RESOURCES IN PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna MAZUR

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available People are the most valuable asset of an organization and the results of a company mostly depends on them. The human factor can also be a weak link in the company and cause of the high risk for many of the processes. Reliability of the human factor in the process of the manufacturing process will depend on many factors. The authors include aspects of human error, safety culture, knowledge, communication skills, teamwork and leadership role in the developed model of reliability of human resources in the management of the production process. Based on the case study and the results of research and observation of the author present risk areas defined in a specific manufacturing process and the results of evaluation of the reliability of human resources in the process.

  15. Certification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva Fernandez, M.

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

  16. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Reliability data collection and use in risk and availability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombari, V.

    1989-01-01

    For EuReDatA it is a prevailing objective to initiate and support contact between experts, companies and institutions active in reliability engineering and research. Main topics of this 6th EuReDatA Conference are: Reliability data banks; incidents data banks; common cause data; source and propagation of uncertainties; computer aided risk analysis; reliability and incidents data acquisition and processing; human reliability; probabilistic safety and availability assessment; feedback of reliability into system design; data fusion; reliability modeling and techniques; structural and mechanical reliability; consequence modeling; software and electronic reliability; reliability tests. Some conference papers are separately indexed in the database. (HP)

  18. Agile risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Moran, Alan

    2014-01-01

    This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

  19. Risk management in Takaful

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

  20. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  1. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  2. Value of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vik, Marie Amdal

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

  3. Supply Cain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Les

    2011-01-01

    “The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

  4. Supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

    2013-01-01

    Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

  5. Exchange Risk Management Policy

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    At the Finance Committee of March 2005, following a comment by the CERN Audit Committee, the Chairman invited the Management to prepare a document on exchange risk management policy. The Finance Committee is invited to take note of this document.

  6. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  7. Risk management overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGovern, S.

    1995-01-01

    Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

  8. Managing economic risks through simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, B.J.; Eresman, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    Industrial operations are commonly managed in terms of such factors as raw material requirements, throughput, equipment reliability, and operator productivity. Simulation can be used to transform standard management performance measures into probabilistic measures which define the associated risks. These results provide valuable insight for effective management of economic risks. Case studies are presented using the Monte Carlo simulation method to demonstrate different applications of simulation techniques, various result formats, and their use for optimizing economic returns. In the first case study, design criteria for a large gas distribution system originally developed from worst-case demand estimates were modelled to provide a risk basis for decisions on alternative upgrading options. In the second, a commercial gas storage facility operation was modelled to develop economic marketing strategies balancing supply and demand requirements from multiple clients. 3 refs

  9. Development of computerized risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kil Yoo Kim; Mee Jung Hwang; Seung Cheol Jang; Sang Hoon Han; Tae Woon Kim

    1997-01-01

    The author describes the kinds of efforts for the development of computerized risk management tool; (1) development of a risk monitor, Risk Monster, (2) improvement of McFarm (Missing Cutsets Finding Algorithm for Risk Monitor) and finally (3) development of reliability database management system, KwDBMan. Risk Monster supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Improved McFarm significantly improved calculation speed of Risk Monster for the cases of supporting system OOS (Out Of Service). KwDBMan manages event data, generic data and CCF (Common Cause Failure) data to support Risk Monster as well as PSA tool, KIRAP (KAERI Integrated Reliability Analysis Package)

  10. Reldata - a tool for reliability database management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Tharani, Rajiv

    2000-01-01

    Component failure, repair and maintenance data is a very important element of any Probabilistic Safety Assessment study. The credibility of the results of such study is enhanced if the data used is generated from operating experience of similar power plants. Towards this objective, a computerised database is designed, with fields such as, date and time of failure, component name, failure mode, failure cause, ways of failure detection, reactor operating power status, repair times, down time, etc. This leads to evaluation of plant specific failure rate, and on demand failure probability/unavailability for all components. Systematic data updation can provide a real time component reliability parameter statistics and trend analysis and this helps in planning maintenance strategies. A software package has been developed RELDATA, which incorporates the database management and data analysis methods. This report describes the software features and underlying methodology in detail. (author)

  11. Enhancing operability and reliability through configuration management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, L.R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of plant design control techniques from the early 1970's to today's operating environment that demands accurate, up-to-date design data. This evolution of design control is responsible for the increasingly troublesome scenario of design data being very difficult to locate and when found, its credibility is questioned. The design information could be suspect because there are discrepancies between two or more source documents or there is a difference between the design documents and the physical configuration of the plant. This paper discusses the impact these design control problems are having on plant operations and presents common sense solutions for improving configuration management techniques to ultimately enhance operability and reliability

  12. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  13. Risk Management and Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovmand, David

    2014-01-01

    Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....

  14. Agricultural risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

    2005-01-01

    A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

  15. The management object in risk management approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    2013-01-01

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse an...

  16. Individual Property Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Finke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

  17. Optimizing risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindred, G.W.

    2000-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

  18. Internal Audit and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

    2011-01-01

    Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

  19. Risk Management Plan Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.

  20. Making Risk Management Strategic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sax, Johanna; Andersen, Torben Juul

    2018-01-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is an established management practice and is increasing in prominence as more firms spend substantial resources implementing ERM frameworks, partially induced by regulatory requirements. Yet, there is a lack of knowledge as to whether such frameworks add value and...... outcomes. The study develops a new multidimensional measure of adherence to ERM practices where earlier studies typically have relied on dichotomous proxies. We discuss the implications of these findings for ERM practice and strategic management in general....

  1. Smart Grid Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad Lopez, Carlos Adrian

    Current electricity infrastructure is being stressed from several directions -- high demand, unreliable supply, extreme weather conditions, accidents, among others. Infrastructure planners have, traditionally, focused on only the cost of the system; today, resilience and sustainability are increasingly becoming more important. In this dissertation, we develop computational tools for efficiently managing electricity resources to help create a more reliable and sustainable electrical grid. The tools we present in this work will help electric utilities coordinate demand to allow the smooth and large scale integration of renewable sources of energy into traditional grids, as well as provide infrastructure planners and operators in developing countries a framework for making informed planning and control decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Demand-side management is considered as the most viable solution for maintaining grid stability as generation from intermittent renewable sources increases. Demand-side management, particularly demand response (DR) programs that attempt to alter the energy consumption of customers either by using price-based incentives or up-front power interruption contracts, is more cost-effective and sustainable in addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances when compared with the alternative that involves increasing fossil fuel-based fast spinning reserves. An essential step in compensating participating customers and benchmarking the effectiveness of DR programs is to be able to independently detect the load reduction from observed meter data. Electric utilities implementing automated DR programs through direct load control switches are also interested in detecting the reduction in demand to efficiently pinpoint non-functioning devices to reduce maintenance costs. We develop sparse optimization methods for detecting a small change in the demand for electricity of a customer in response to a price change or signal from the utility

  2. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  3. Risk and reliability assessment for telecommunications networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Schriner, H.K.; Gaylor, T.R.

    1996-08-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has assembled an interdisciplinary team to explore the applicability of probabilistic logic modeling (PLM) techniques to model network reliability for a wide variety of communications network architectures. The authors have found that the reliability and failure modes of current generation network technologies can be effectively modeled using fault tree PLM techniques. They have developed a ``plug-and-play`` fault tree analysis methodology that can be used to model connectivity and the provision of network services in a wide variety of current generation network architectures. They have also developed an efficient search algorithm that can be used to determine the minimal cut sets of an arbitrarily-interconnected (non-hierarchical) network without the construction of a fault tree model. This paper provides an overview of these modeling techniques and describes how they are applied to networks that exhibit hybrid network structures (i.e., a network in which some areas are hierarchical and some areas are not hierarchical).

  4. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  5. Risk management at GPU Nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on GPU Nuclear. Among other goals, it established the independence of key safety functions as highlighted by the lessons learned from the accident. In particular, an independent Nuclear Assurance Division was established which include Quality Assurance, Training and Education, Emergency Preparedness, and Nuclear Safety Assessment. The latter consisted of corporate and site independent-safety-review groups. As the GPU Nuclear organization matured, a mid-1987 reorganization created an even more focused Planning and Nuclear Safety Division bringing together Nuclear Safety Assessment with Licensing and Regulatory Affairs and Risk Management. The Risk Management Group (RMG), which began its work in fall 1987, was formed to develop a framework for proactive identification, evaluation, and cost-effective reduction and management of risks of all types. The RMG set out to learn as much as possible about risks and their management in nuclear and other high-technology industries. This began with a thorough literature search. It progressed to interviews with individuals and organizations which have demonstrated innovative ideas, experience, and reputations for safe and reliable operation

  6. Governmental management of chemical risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, R.

    1990-01-01

    This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

  7. Risk management versus incentives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, E.; Lovas, K.; Osmundsen, P.

    2006-01-01

    Portfolio theory indicates that risk management should take place at the group level. Hedging at the project level or in the individual business areas may lead to suboptimal results. However, the efficiency of a profit centre depends on its management's being able to influence factors that are crucial to the unit's financial results. Price hedging could be one such factor. In the wider perspective, this constitutes part of the balancing between centralisation and decentralisation. This article covers important elements of risk management and incentive design. It goes on to discuss the balancing of overall risk management at the group level and incentive design in profit centres and corporate units. Throughout the article, the oil industry serves as a case. (author)

  8. Managing the effects of aging and reliability improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Taylor, J.H.; Boccio, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    Over recent years the electric power generating community has acknowledged the importance of the aging process on plant safety and availability. To cope with time-dependent degradation phenomenon that can affect active as well as passive components and lead to unacceptable, unanticipated failures requires research into the mechanisms of the aging process, advances in productive methods for assessing the aging impact on risk and availability, and a better understanding of power plant operations so that strategies for defending against this pervasive stress can be developed. This paper discusses current research advances and presents a framework to aid in the systematic integration of these three needs. As such it is anchored to research being conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory in the areas of plant aging, life extension, reliability, performance indication, and risk assessment. The current question facing the industry can be simply stated. ''How can an acceptable level of safety and availability be maintained throughout the operational life of a nuclear power plant?'' The complexity of this question indicates that managing aging effects must be a continuous, coordinated process integrated with day-to-day tactical plant operation decisions. This implies that aging and reliability programs must be systemic properties of an organization's management, and that research into aging technology must be closely linked

  9. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  10. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...

  11. Research on reliability management systems for Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maki, Nobuo

    2000-01-01

    Investigation on a reliability management system for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) has been performed on national and international archived documents as well as on current status of studies at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), US NPPs (McGuire, Seabrook), a French NPP (St. Laurent-des-Eaux), Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industries (CRIEPI), and power plant manufacturers in Japan. As a result of the investigation, the following points were identified: (i) A reliability management system is composed of a maintenance management system to inclusively manage maintenance data, and an anomalies information and reliability data management system to extract data from maintenance results stored in the maintenance management system and construct a reliability database. (ii) The maintenance management system, which is widely-used among NPPs in the US and Europe, is an indispensable system for the increase of maintenance reliability. (iii) Maintenance management methods utilizing reliability data like Reliability Centered Maintenance are applied for NPP maintenance in the US and Europe, and contributing to cost saving. Maintenance templates are effective in the application process. In addition, the following points were proposed on the design of the system: (i) A detailed database on specifications of facilities and components is necessary for the effective use of the system. (ii) A demand database is indispensable for the application of the methods. (iii) Full-time database managers are important to maintain the quality of the reliability data. (author)

  12. A framework for reliability and risk centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvik, J.T.; Aven, T.

    2011-01-01

    Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) is a well-established analysis method for preventive maintenance planning. As its name indicates, reliability is the main point of reference for the planning, but consequences of failures are also assessed. However, uncertainties and risk are to a limited extent addressed by the RCM method, and in this paper we suggest an extension of the RCM to reliability and risk centered maintenance (RRCM) by also considering risk as the reference for the analysis in addition to reliability. A broad perspective on risk is adopted where uncertainties are the main component of risk in addition to possible events and associated consequences. A case from the offshore oil and gas industry is presented to illustrate and discuss the suggested approach.

  13. An integrated reliability management system for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, T.; Shimokawa, H.; Matsushima, H.

    1998-01-01

    The responsibility in the nuclear field of the Government, utilities and manufactures has increased in the past years due to the need of stable operation and great reliability of nuclear power plants. The need to improve the reliability is not only for the new plants but also for those now running. So, several measures have been taken to improve reliability. In particular, the plant manufactures have developed a reliability management system for each phase (planning, construction, maintenance and operation) and these have been integrated as a unified system. This integrated reliability management system for nuclear power plants contains information about plant performance, failures and incidents which have occurred in the plants. (author)

  14. Air quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martin L

    2008-01-01

    Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.

  15. Managing power risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudd, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig

  16. Product quality, service reliability and management of operations at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High product quality, service reliability, and management of operations are key factors in business growth and sustainability. Analyzing “The Starbucks Experience” is a pedagogical approach to reinforcing the concepts of control and management of quality, service reliability, and efficient operations in action. The objective ...

  17. Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

  18. Management of radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1996-01-01

    The need to control the risk from ionizing radiation can be tracked back to the eve of the twentieth century. However, as knowledge improved and practices expanded, the approaches to this control have evolved. No longer is the mere respect of some forms of exposure limits or safety related standards sufficient. Rather, it is widely admitted that there is a need for managing radiation risk, both by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of enhancing protection and by setting up a proper organization that allows handling of the risk. This paper describes the multiple aspects of radiation risk management and points out the main related issues. It critically analyzes ALARA and ICRP recommendations. 74 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  19. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  20. Managing Chemical & Material Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Certification Program Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 9 DoD Hexavalent Chromium Risk Reduction Non- Chrome Primer II EXAVAJ ENT CHROM lrUMI...Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX) • Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine  Hexavalent Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …pending downgrade to watch list Beryllium...T1me (secondo) 700 Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 10 Hexavalent Chromium Risk Management Actions • DoD minimization policy signed April

  1. Risk Management of NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarper, Hueseyin

    1997-01-01

    Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

  2. Managing risk at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-01-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

  3. Investigation of risk management auditing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Lu

    2012-01-01

    2004, COSO published 'Enterprise Risk Management Framework', 2009, SASAC issued the 'central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines' to promote risk management within the formal state-owned enterprises in medium and large. Nuclear Group, which risk management in all branches to carry out the project homeopathic, and A Ⅱ will carry out risk management program as the first unit has accumulated more experience. This article from the perspective of internal control, based on the company's risk management practices carried out to try for the nuclear power enterprise risk management audit to describe and propose new ideas. Which expounds the significance of risk management, audit, risk management audit of the ways and means, for practical application of risk management audit of a representative summary of the issues and the ways and means to solve the problem of forward-looking recommendations. (authors)

  4. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...

  5. Risk management in customs control

    OpenAIRE

    Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza

    2016-01-01

    The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.

  6. Risk management in nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles, Claudio J.R.

    2002-01-01

    The risk management will be defined by different aspects: danger or loss possibility, or responsibility for damage. The risk management is one stage of project management. The risk management is a continuous process of planning, identification, quantification, answer and risk control to maximize the success potential of activity. The reduction of risk is part of priority establishment. This work will indicate how introduce this important instrument in the management of nuclear projects. (author)

  7. The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible....... The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

  8. Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

    2015-01-01

    PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

  9. Managing Risks in Electrical Infrastructure Assets from a Strategic Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhuang, Q.

    2015-01-01

    Should risks always be quantified before being managed? The answer is “yes” in the opinion of most asset managers in today’s electricity transmission and distribution companies, but “no” in modern theories of risk management. When the risks refer to reliability hazards of high-voltage assets, the

  10. Alternative approach to automated management of load flow in engineering networks considering functional reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ирина Александровна Гавриленко

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The approach to automated management of load flow in engineering networks considering functional reliability was proposed in the article. The improvement of the concept of operational and strategic management of load flow in engineering networks was considered. The verbal statement of the problem for thesis research is defined, namely, the problem of development of information technology for exact calculation of the functional reliability of the network, or the risk of short delivery of purpose-oriented product for consumers

  11. Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

    1999-01-01

    Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

  12. Reliability risks during the transition to competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, J.P.

    2005-01-01

    The Electricity Consumers Resource Council (ELCON) is a U.S. association representing industrial consumers of electricity, and is a long-standing advocate of competition in the electric power industry. However, because a reliable grid is necessary to support competitive wholesale markets, ELCON believes that the transmission system is an essential facility that must remain regulated. The initiatives discussed in this white paper represent significant steps that the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and the industry have taken to improve reliability in a competitive and restructured electric industry. Strategic manoeuvres of incumbent utilities to maintain market share were evaluated, as well as discrimination against potential competitors. It was suggested that, occasionally, indecisive federal policies have been taken advantage of by utilities. The unintended consequences of state restructuring policies that allow utilities to over-earn their revenue requirements were reviewed. NERC reliability standards will remain unenforceable until a new Electricity Reliability Organization has been certified. Flawed market designs and inadequate market power mitigation, as well as the financial distress of merchant generators, pose considerable risks. It was suggested that these risks could trigger transmission loading relief incidents, local outages or widespread outages. In the absence of mandatory reliability standards with penalties, and complementary market rules for mitigating generation and transmission market power, economic incentives will encourage other forms of opportunistic behavior that may be the root cause of other outages. Public concern regarding these risks to grid reliability may result in lost public support for competitive electricity markets. Proposed solutions include the certification of a new Electric Reliability Organization to establish and enforce mandatory reliability standards, and granting the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

  13. Welcoming high reliability organising in construction management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    olde Scholtenhuis, Léon Luc; Doree, Andries G.; Smith, S.D.; Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D.

    2013-01-01

    To achieve project objectives, construction project managers have to manoeuvre through complex coordination structures. They have to simultaneously deal with limited budgets, tight schedules, demanding stakeholders and a fragmented supply-chain. Despite their extensive coordination efforts, project

  14. Information Risk Management and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dynes, Scott

    Are the levels of information risk management efforts within and between firms correlated with the resilience of the firms to information disruptions? This paper examines the question by considering the results of field studies of information risk management practices at organizations and in supply chains. The organizations investigated differ greatly in the degree of coupling from a general and information risk management standpoint, as well as in the levels of internal awareness and activity regarding information risk management. The comparison of the levels of information risk management in the firms and their actual or inferred resilience indicates that a formal information risk management approach is not necessary for resilience in certain sectors.

  15. Nuclear risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This paper gives the list of contributions to Eurosafe 2001 which was organised around two round tables on the first day and five seminars on the second day. The first round table dealt with the technical, organisational and societal aspects of risk management aimed at the prevention of accidents in nuclear power plants. The second round table focused on radiological risks from the normal operation of nuclear installations. Special consideration has been given to the involvement of stakeholders. The five seminars were held in order to provide opportunities for comparing experiences and learning about recent activities of IRSN, GRS and their partners in the European Union and Eastern Europe: - Safety assessment and analysis of nuclear installations; -Nuclear safety research; -Environment and radiation protection; - Waste management; - Nuclear material security. (author)

  16. Nuclear risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This paper gives the list of contributions to Eurosafe 2001 which was organised around two round tables on the first day and five seminars on the second day. The first round table dealt with the technical, organisational and societal aspects of risk management aimed at the prevention of accidents in nuclear power plants. The second round table focused on radiological risks from the normal operation of nuclear installations. Special consideration has been given to the involvement of stakeholders. The five seminars were held in order to provide opportunities for comparing experiences and learning about recent activities of IRSN, GRS and their partners in the European Union and Eastern Europe: - Safety assessment and analysis of nuclear installations; -Nuclear safety research; -Environment and radiation protection; - Waste management; - Nuclear material security. (author)

  17. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  18. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  20. Plant and control system reliability and risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemelae, I.M.

    1986-01-01

    A new reliability modelling technique for control systems and plants is demonstrated. It is based on modified boolean algebra and it has been automated into an efficient computer code called RELVEC. The code is useful for getting an overall view of the reliability parameters or for an in-depth reliability analysis, which is essential in risk analysis, where the model must be capable of answering to specific questions like: 'What is the probability of this temperature limiter to provide a false alarm', or 'what is the probability of air pressure in this subsystem to drop below lower limit'. (orig./DG)

  1. Managing Complex Environmental Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Mikael [Karlstad Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Sciences

    2006-09-15

    Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

  2. Managing Complex Environmental Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Mikael

    2006-01-01

    Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

  3. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia de Reatores

    2017-07-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  4. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  5. Risk management through concurrency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childress, J.R.; Briant, V.B.

    1991-01-01

    More than ever before, management and technical professionals are concerned with the subtle and dynamic relationships between safety and performance in complex and hazardous industries. This is certainly true in the nuclear power industry. With the US electric energy industry on the verge of deregulation and increased competition, and with a virtual stoppage on building new nuclear power plants, the increasing demand for reliable sources of efficient electric energy is pressing the nuclear utilities to increase production. At the same time, public sentiment and regulatory pressures are increasing their focus on safety at all costs. The purpose of this paper is to present a proven approach to creating a new work culture for improved nuclear safety and performance. The concepts and material which make up this paper have been taken from both authors experience, research, and consulting in the nuclear industry for several years, as well as from over 20 years of consulting work on the relationships between organizational behavior, culture, and productivity

  6. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  7. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  8. Risk assessment and reliability for low level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, P.O.; Jones, G.A.

    1986-01-01

    The reliability of critical design features at low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities is a major concern in the licensing of these structures. To date, no systematic methodology has been adopted to evaluate the geotechnical reliability of Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) disposal facilities currently being designed and/or constructed. This paper discusses and critiques the deterministic methods currently used to evaluate UMTRA reliability. Because deterministic methods may not be applicable in some cases because of the unusually long design life of UMTRA facilities, it is proposed that a probabilistic risk assessment-based methodology be used as a secondary method to aid in the evaluating of geotechnical reliability of critical items. Similar methodologies have proven successful in evaluating the reliability of a variety of conventional earth structures. In this paper, an ''acceptable'' level of risk for UMTRA facilities is developed, an evaluation method is presented, and two example applications of the proposed methodology are provided for a generic UMTRA disposal facility. The proposed technique is shown to be a simple method which might be used to aid in reliability evaluations on a selective basis. Finally, other possible applications and the limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed

  9. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    -Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process

  10. Public protection - reliable allergen risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janković, V.; Popov Raljić, J.; Đorđević, V.

    2017-09-01

    Consumers with potentially fatal food allergies are dependent on correct product labelling to protect their health. The food industry is responsible for providing every detail consumers need to make informed decisions. Considering public health, food suppliers have to monitor the presence of allergens, prevent cross-contamination and label products accurately. Allergen labelling of food products, drinks and non pre-packed food and drink products is clearly defined with legal regulations. To achieve this, a complete understanding of each product’s allergenic ingredients is needed and cross-contamination of food with allergens must be avoided. Raw materials need to be checked, every ingredient must be verified and every single allergen has to be stipulated. A mislabeled product could be recalled at potential cost, financially damaging business and at the same time, negatively impacting brand and reputation.

  11. Risk Management in Cocurricular Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Edward M.

    1988-01-01

    Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…

  12. Managing Corruption Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krause Hansen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates the emerging engagement of private actors and specifically Western corporations in international anti-corruption, drawing on Foucauldian studies of governmentality. It explores this engagement as governing practices that have emanated quite independently from the inter......-state system commonly understood to be at the core of the anti-corruption regime. It demonstrates how corporate anti-corruption ties in with a relatively new way of perceiving corruption. In this framing, anti-corruption comes out as risk management, which is latched on to notions of corporate social...... responsibility and business ethics. Moreover, the constitution of corruption risk relates to the rise of new actors and networks engaged in a wider business of anti-corruption, including commercial and hybrid actors that supply corporations with managerial instruments, benchmarks for best practice, rankings...

  13. [Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

    2014-08-01

    A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

  14. INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

    2014-01-01

    The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

  15. Reliability of blood pressure measurement and cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, N.V.

    2016-01-01

    High blood pressure is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but difficult to reliably assess because there are many factors which can influence blood pressure including stress, exercise or illness. The first part of this thesis focuses on possible ways to improve the

  16. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  17. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  18. Communicating Risk to Program Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivers, C. Herbert

    2005-01-01

    Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

  19. Management systems for high reliability organizations. Integration and effectiveness; Managementsysteme fuer Hochzuverlaessigkeitsorganisationen. Integration und Wirksamkeit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayer, Michael

    2015-03-09

    The scope of the thesis is the development of a method for improvement of efficient integrated management systems for high reliability organizations (HRO). A comprehensive analysis of severe accident prevention is performed. Severe accident management, mitigation measures and business continuity management are not included. High reliability organizations are complex and potentially dynamic organization forms that can be inherently dangerous like nuclear power plants, offshore platforms, chemical facilities, large ships or large aircrafts. A recursive generic management system model (RGM) was development based on the following factors: systemic and cybernetic Asepcts; integration of different management fields, high decision quality, integration of efficient methods of safety and risk analysis, integration of human reliability aspects, effectiveness evaluation and improvement.

  20. Fuzzy QFD for supply chain management with reliability consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, So Young; Choi, In Su

    2001-01-01

    Although many products are made through several tiers of supply chains, a systematic way of handling reliability issues in a various product planning stage has drawn attention, only recently, in the context of supply chain management (SCM). The main objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy quality function deployment (QFD) model in order to convey fuzzy relationship between customers needs and design specification for reliability in the context of SCM. A fuzzy multi criteria decision-making procedure is proposed and is applied to find a set of optimal solution with respect to the performance of the reliability test needed in CRT design. It is expected that the proposed approach can make significant contributions on the following areas: effectively communicating with technical personnel and users; developing relatively error-free reliability review system; and creating consistent and complete documentation for design for reliability

  1. Fuzzy QFD for supply chain management with reliability consideration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, So Young; Choi, In Su

    2001-06-01

    Although many products are made through several tiers of supply chains, a systematic way of handling reliability issues in a various product planning stage has drawn attention, only recently, in the context of supply chain management (SCM). The main objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy quality function deployment (QFD) model in order to convey fuzzy relationship between customers needs and design specification for reliability in the context of SCM. A fuzzy multi criteria decision-making procedure is proposed and is applied to find a set of optimal solution with respect to the performance of the reliability test needed in CRT design. It is expected that the proposed approach can make significant contributions on the following areas: effectively communicating with technical personnel and users; developing relatively error-free reliability review system; and creating consistent and complete documentation for design for reliability.

  2. Managing information technology security risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, David

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.

  3. Credit derivatives and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    2007-01-01

    The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

  4. Evaluation of Stock Management Strategies Reliability at Dependent Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukinskiy Valery

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available For efficiently increasing the logistic systems, the core specialists’ attention has to be directed to reducing costs and increasing supply chains reliability. A decent attention to costs reduction has already been paid, so it can be stated that in this way there is a significant progress. But the problem of reliability evaluation is still insufficiently explored, particularly, in such an important sphere as inventory management at the dependent demand.

  5. Safety management of pipelines based on structural reliability: historical perspective and progress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, Andre Teofilo; Bazan, Felipe Alexander Vargas [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil); Mendes, Renato [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Donato, Guilherme [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS/CENPES), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas e Desenvolvimento; Gardiner, Michael [GL Noble Denton, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    Since the early beginnings in the sixties and seventies, Structural Reliability theory has reached a mature stage encompassing solid theoretical developments and increasing practical applications. Structural reliability methods have permeated the engineering profession, finding applications in code calibration, structural optimization, life extension of existing structures, life-cycle management of infrastructure risks and costs, and so on. This review paper shows that the ground work for Reliability Based Design and Assessment (RBDA) of onshore pipeline systems is already developed. Hence, this allows the economic management of the risks involved in operation of pipeline systems. It is shown that RBDA is a rational tool to safely manage the operational life of pipeline systems, optimizing initial design and the expenditures in inspection and maintenance operations. (author)

  6. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  7. The Key to Risk Management: Management

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian E. Tschoegl

    2000-01-01

    The Barings, Daiwa Bank and Sumitomo Corp. financial debacles in the mid-1990s suggest that management failures rather than misfortune, errors, or complexity are a major source of the risk of financial debacles. These errors are systematic and are a concommittant of the structure of trading and of human nature. Risk management systems must take these facts into account.

  8. Risk Management in Insurance Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Xufeng

    2006-01-01

    Insurance is the uncertain business in uncertain society. Today, insures face more complex and difficult risks. Efficient risk management mechanisms are essential for the insurers. The paper is set out initially to explore UK insurance companies risk management and risk disclosure by examining companies annual report after all the listed insurance companies are required to disclose risk information in their annual report, which seeks to reflect the recent development in UK insurance companies...

  9. Information systems for risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    1997-01-01

    Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of the resulting measures of risk and the burden of computing them. Technical progress will make this tradeoff more favorable over time...

  10. Framework for systematic risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knief, R.A.; Mahn, J.A.; Briant, V.S.; Lee, R.B.; Long, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The first paper of the Symposium described GPU Nuclear's Risk Management Group (RMG) and the use of literature search and interviews in a extensive study of risk management. One of the most important goals of the study was to identify comprehensive approaches to managing risk in the nuclear and major high-technology industries. This paper discusses RMG's multi-step generic risk-management process consisting of the following steps to: identify hazards; screen hazards and identify preventive actions, including costs; evaluate hazards for severity, probable frequency, and cost of preventive actions; prioritize preventive actions (preference to high risk and low cost); implement preventive actions; monitor and provide feedback

  11. Trends in risk management in nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Inn Seock

    1996-01-01

    Safety management may be classified into three dimensions: risk management, accident management, and emergency management. This paper addresses the recent trends of safety management in nuclear industry, focussing on risk management and accident management

  12. Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station equipment reliability management system innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Ligang; Wang Zongjun

    2006-01-01

    Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station has achieved good performance since its commercial operation in 1994. The equipment reliability management system that features Daya Bay characteristics has been established through constant technology introduction, digestion and innovation. It is also based on the success of operational system, equipment maintenance system and technical support system. The system lays a solid foundation for the long-term safe operation of power station. This article emphasizes on the innovation part of equipment reliability management system in Daya Bay. (authors)

  13. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  14. Understanding and managing risk attitude

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hillson, David; Murray-Webster, Ruth

    2007-01-01

    ... This book highlights how risk attitude factors influence the human psyche, and carefully explains the impacts. Organisations seeking to dramatically improve the effectiveness of their risk management process will want to use this book's insights. Craig Peterson, President, PMI Risk Management SIG This book has prompted me to think more deeply as a change d...

  15. Methods of Financial Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korzh Natalia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

  16. Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cramton, Peter; Stoft, Steven

    2008-01-01

    A forward reliability market is presented. The market coordinates new entry through the forward procurement of reliability options - physical capacity bundled with a financial option to supply energy above a strike price. The market assures adequate generating resources and prices capacity from the bids of competitive new entry in an annual auction. Efficient performance incentives are maintained from a load-following obligation to supply energy above the strike price. The capacity payment fully hedges load from high spot prices, and reduces supplier risk as well. Market power is reduced in the spot market, since suppliers enter the spot market with a nearly balanced position in times of scarcity. Market power in the reliability market is addressed by not allowing existing supply to impact the capacity price. The approach, which has been adopted in New England and Colombia, is readily adapted to either a thermal system or a hydro system. (author)

  17. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  18. Shell Lip Thickness Is the Most Reliable Proxy to Sexual Maturity in Queen Conch (Lobatus gigas of Port Honduras Marine Reserve, Belize; Informing Management to Reduce the Risk of Growth Overfishing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Foley

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Queen conch (Lobatus gigas is an important food source and export product for Belize, where extraction is regulated by shell length (SL and market clean weight (MCW limits. However, lip thickness (LT limits are used to manage juvenile mortality and reduce risk of growth overfishing in other countries. Empirical studies suggest relationships between LT and sexual maturity vary spatially and need to be determined locally. This study was conducted to determine the most reliable, easily measurable proxy indicator(s of maturity and associated target size limits in L. gigas that can effectively restrict harvest of juveniles. Morphological measures (SL, LT, lip width, unprocessed meat weight, MCW, operculum dimensions, gonadosomatic index (GSI and histological evaluations were recorded from L. gigas collected in PHMR before, during, and after the L. gigas closed season. Upon determining Period 2 (during closed season as the peak reproductive period, relationships between these variables in Period 2 were examined. No relationship was found in males between SL and maturity, and was weak in females, whereas there were significant curvilinear relationships between LT and GSI for both sexes, suggesting urgent need to base size limits on LT not SL. LT at which 50% of the population was mature (LT50 was 15.51 mm for females and 12.33 mm for males, therefore a 16 mm LT limit is recommended. MCW of female L. gigas was also significantly related to GSI, indicating MCW may be an appropriate management tool in conjunction with LT as it can be measured at landing sites whereas shells are usually discarded at sea. However, MCW at which 50% of females were mature (MCW50 was 199 g and many individuals exceeding LT50 had MCW <199 g, suggesting the current 85 g MCW limit is too low to protect juveniles yet 199 g MCW limit would be too high to substitute the recommended LT limit at landing sites. To minimize short-term impacts yet maximize long-term benefits to fishers

  19. Managing the uncertainty aspect of reliability in an iterative product development process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganesh, N.

    2009-01-01

    This study identifies the design criteria for a method that can be used to manage the risk and uncertainty aspects of product reliability of Really New Innovations (RNI) in an Iterative Product Development Process (IPDP). It is based on 7 years of longitudinal research exploring more than 10

  20. IMPLEMENTING A RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin PREDA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available After risk management “conquered” more and more project managers’ minds and showed its benefits for business and programs, the need to have a global risk management standard has become a crucial issue in the world of risk management. But having a global risk management standard has been a big challenge, starting from the decision of developing the standard (March-June 2005, to the moment of publishing it, November 2009. So, developing the ISO 31000:2009 standard has been more or less like a bumpy ride. Apparently, the people involved in developing the global risk management standard understood from the very beginning that no challenges are too big, nor any tasks too small and that the task of having a new, comprehensive global risk management standard should be completed with excellence: defining the principles and the framework guiding the risk management process applicable for all type of organizations and for a wide range of activities. Coming up with a global standard should always be based on the real organizations’ needs and should fulfill real risk management requirements. The article is trying to present the pros and cons of risk management standard implementation, challenging the implementation process itself and the added value of implementing the standard due to the lack of implementation enablers, like risk culture, a real problem especially in an international environment.

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Valerievna Drobot

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

  4. Risk management and corporate value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Cupic

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a theoretical framework for assessing the impact of risk management on corporate value. As the relevant factors that determine this impact, the paper analyzes market imperfections and investors’ risk aversion. The results of the present research indicate that risk management contributes to an increase in corporate value if, under the influence of market imperfections, corporate risk exposure is concave. As an expression of market imperfections, the paper analyzes the costs of financial distress, agency costs, and taxation. The results of the research also indicate that the risk management policy should not aim to minimize, but rather optimize risk exposure, by taking into account the costs of risk management, investors’ risk aversion and the competitive advantage a corporation has on the relevant market.

  5. Development of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yican

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • There are four parts in the structure of RiskA. User input part lets users input the PSA model and some necessary data by GUI or model transformation tool. In calculation engine part, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance analysis and failure mode and effects analysis are supplied. User output part outputs the analysis results, user customized reports and some other data. The last part includes reliability database, some other common tools and help documents. • RiskA has several advanced features. Extensible framework makes it easy to add any new functions, making RiskA to be a large platform of reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. It is very fast to analysis fault tree in RiskA because many advanced algorithm improvement were made. Many model formats can be imported and exported, which made the PSA model in the commercial software can be easily transformed to adapt RiskA platform. Web-based co-modeling let several users in different places work together whenever they are online. • The comparison between RiskA and other mature PSA codes (e.g. CAFTA, RiskSpectrum, XFTA) has demonstrated that the calculation and analysis of RiskA is correct and efficient. Based on the development of this code package, many applications of safety and reliability analysis of some research reactors and nuclear power plants were performed. The development of RiskA appears to be of realistic and potential value for academic research and practical operation safety management of nuclear power plants in China and abroad. - Abstract: PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) software, the indispensable tool in nuclear safety assessment, has been widely used. An integrated reliability and PSA program named RiskA has been developed by FDS Team. RiskA supplies several standard PSA modules including fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, uncertainty analysis, failure mode and effect analysis and reliability

  6. Risk management of precious metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); F. Malik (Farooq); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with

  7. Risk Management in Logystics Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Butrin, Andrey; Vikulov, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    Article is devoted to risk management of supply chain. The authors considered indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers.

  8. Improving Information Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anand

    2009-01-01

    manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…

  9. Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

  10. Reliability methods in nuclear power plant ageing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simola, K. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1999-07-01

    The aim of nuclear power plant ageing management is to maintain an adequate safety level throughout the lifetime of the plant. In ageing studies, the reliability of components, systems and structures is evaluated taking into account the possible time-dependent degradation. The phases of ageing analyses are generally the identification of critical components, identification and evaluation of ageing effects, and development of mitigation methods. This thesis focuses on the use of reliability methods and analyses of plant- specific operating experience in nuclear power plant ageing studies. The presented applications and method development have been related to nuclear power plants, but many of the approaches can also be applied outside the nuclear industry. The thesis consists of a summary and seven publications. The summary provides an overview of ageing management and discusses the role of reliability methods in ageing analyses. In the publications, practical applications and method development are described in more detail. The application areas at component and system level are motor-operated valves and protection automation systems, for which experience-based ageing analyses have been demonstrated. Furthermore, Bayesian ageing models for repairable components have been developed, and the management of ageing by improving maintenance practices is discussed. Recommendations for improvement of plant information management in order to facilitate ageing analyses are also given. The evaluation and mitigation of ageing effects on structural components is addressed by promoting the use of probabilistic modelling of crack growth, and developing models for evaluation of the reliability of inspection results. (orig.)

  11. RISKS MANAGEMENT: NEW LITERATURE REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Ennouri Wissem

    2013-01-01

    The complexity of the industrial activities and the important mass of flows crossing the supply chain promotes the emergence of risks that must be considered in the decision process. For this reason, we have developed this paper to clarify the basics of risk management through a short new suggestion of literature review for risk management. Our justification of this attempt is that this area is the most discussed in our days and it is impossible to present all definition of the risk concept, ...

  12. Integrated supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

    2007-01-01

    Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...

  13. Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

    2013-01-01

    Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

  14. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  15. Continuous Risk Management at NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

    1999-01-01

    NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

  16. DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin PREDA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

  17. Training and Maintaining System-Wide Reliability in Outcome Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barwick, Melanie A; Urajnik, Diana J; Moore, Julia E

    2014-01-01

    The Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS) is widely used for outcome management, for providing real time client and program level data, and the monitoring of evidence-based practices. Methods of reliability training and the assessment of rater drift are critical for service decision-making within organizations and systems of care. We assessed two approaches for CAFAS training: external technical assistance and internal technical assistance. To this end, we sampled 315 practitioners trained by external technical assistance approach from 2,344 Ontario practitioners who had achieved reliability on the CAFAS. To assess the internal technical assistance approach as a reliable alternative training method, 140 practitioners trained internally were selected from the same pool of certified raters. Reliabilities were high for both practitioners trained by external technical assistance and internal technical assistance approaches (.909-.995, .915-.997, respectively). 1 and 3-year estimates showed some drift on several scales. High and consistent reliabilities over time and training method has implications for CAFAS training of behavioral health care practitioners, and the maintenance of CAFAS as a global outcome management tool in systems of care.

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  19. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John

    2009-01-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool's design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  20. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  1. Risk management for independent power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, J.L.

    1993-01-01

    Independent Power, where electric utilities or other bulk electric power users contract with individual electric power generation facilities to meet their projected long term power needs, has grown dramatically over the past ten years or more. This concept, to contract with Independent Power Producers (IPP), is not a new concept and in fact goes back to the early formation of the electric power industry in this country and worldwide. Successful Risk Management is the foundation for ultimate project completion and operation in fulfilling the expectations of all parties. The primary risks associated with the development of Independent Power projects include: predicting long term fuel availability and cost; predicting long term price for the deliverable of electricity; site selection, site characteristics and permitting; innovative or evolving technology; project execution (design and construction), and; lifetime O ampersand M costs and plant reliability. This paper focuses on the risks inherent in the development of IPPs and addresses the management of these risks

  2. Laboratory Information Management System Chain of Custody: Reliability and Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.

    2006-01-01

    A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of automation and of data reliability can vary, and FDA- and EPA-compliant electronic signatures and system security are rare. PMID:17671623

  3. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  4. Selecting Copulas for Risk Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); C.G. Koedijk (Kees); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractCopulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We

  5. Corporate risk management : an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhof, Casper M.

    2001-01-01

    Corporate risk management and hedging are important activities within financial as well as non-financial corporations. Under the assumptions of Modigliani and Miller [1958], corporate risk management is a redundant activity. However, the existence of market imperfections can explain the corporate

  6. The Supply Chain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Skitsko Volodymyr I.; Voynikov Mykola Yu.

    2018-01-01

    The article considers current approaches of risk-management in supply chains, the main steps of the risk management process are analyzed and detailed both for a separate enterprise – participant of supply chain, for the supply chain in general, and for the Beer game, based on the international risk management standards. The article provides a way to assess the risks of the «producer» in the Beer game according to the three strategies of its behavior, which presumably can correspond to differe...

  7. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  8. Risk and reliability analyses (LURI) and expert judgement techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1998-01-01

    Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is currently used as a regulatory licensing tool in risk informed and plant performance based regulation. More often also utility safety improvements are based on PSA calculations as one criterion. PSA attempts to comprehensively identify all important risk contributors, compare them with each other, assess the safety level and suggest improvements based on its findings. The strength of PSA is that it is capable to provide decision makers with numerical estimates of risks. This makes decision making easier than the comparison of purely qualitative results. PSA is the only comprehensive tool that compactly attempts to include all the important risk contributors in its scope. Despite the demonstrated strengths of PSA, there are some features that have reduced its uses. For example, the PSA scope has been limited to the power operation and process internal events (transients and LOCAs). Only lately, areas such as shutdown, external events and severe accidents have been included in PSA models in many countries. Problems related to modelling are, e.g., that rather static fault and event tree models are commonly used in PSA to model dynamic event sequences. Even if a valid model may be generated, there may not be any other data sources to be used than expert judgement. Furthermore, there are a variety of different techniques for human reliability assessment (HRA) giving varying results. In the project Reliability and Risk Analyses (LURI) these limitations and shortcomings have been studied. In the decision making area, case studies on the application of decision analysis and a doctoral thesis have been published. Further, practical aid has been given to utilities and regulatory decision making. Model uncertainty effect on PSA results has been demonstrated by two case studies. Human reliability has been studied both in the integrated safety analysis study and in the study of maintenance originated NPP component faults based on the

  9. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  10. Business risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosby, C.

    2015-01-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  11. Business risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  12. Managing IT-related operational risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savić Ana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Not so long ago, information technology (IT risk occupied a small corner of operational risk - the opportunity loss from a missed IT development deadline. Today, the success of an entire financial institution may lay on managing a broad landscape of IT risks. IT risk is a potential damage to an organization's value, resulting from inadequate managing of processes and technologies. IT risk includes the failure to respond to security and privacy requirements, as well as many other issues such as: human error, internal fraud through software manipulation, external fraud by intruders, obsolesce in applications and machines, reliability issues or mismanagement. The World Economic Forum provides best information about this problem. They rank a breakdown of critical information infrastructure among the most likely core global risks, with 10-20 % likelihood over the next 10 years and potential worldwide impact of $250 billion. Sustained investment in IT - almost $1.2 trillion or 29% of 2006 private-sector capital investment in the U.S. alone fuels growing exposure to IT risk. Greg Hughes, chief strategy officer in Symantec Corp. recently claimed "IT risk management is more than using technology to solve security problems. With proper planning and broad support, it can give an organization the confidence to innovate, using IT to outdistance competitors".

  13. A Closed-Form Technique for the Reliability and Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a closed-form method to evaluate wind turbine system reliability and associated failure consequences. Monte Carlo simulation, a widely used approach for system reliability assessment, usually requires large numbers of computational experiments, while existing analytical methods are limited to simple system event configurations with a focus on average values of reliability metrics. By analyzing a wind turbine system and its components in a combinatorial yet computationally efficient form, the proposed approach provides an entire probability distribution of system failure that contains all possible configurations of component failure and survival events. The approach is also capable of handling unique component attributes such as downtime and repair cost needed for risk estimations, and enables sensitivity analysis for quantifying the criticality of individual components to wind turbine system reliability. Applications of the technique are illustrated by assessing the reliability of a 12-subassembly turbine system. In addition, component downtimes and repair costs of components are embedded in the formulation to compute expected annual wind turbine unavailability and repair cost probabilities, and component importance metrics useful for maintenance planning and research prioritization. Furthermore, this paper introduces a recursive solution to closed-form method and applies this to a 45-component turbine system. The proposed approach proves to be computationally efficient and yields vital reliability information that could be readily used by wind farm stakeholders for decision making and risk management.

  14. TRManager – Technical Risk Manager

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Gregory

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents research into the development of a new information management technique called Technical Risk Manager. Project management involves the use of processes and information management techniques to aid decision making in the pursuit of project success. Project success may be achieved by meeting time, cost or performance criteria. Current project management practices focus on achieving time and cost project success criteria by using three information management techniques developed in the 1950s: Gantt, PERT and Critical Path Method. Technical Risk Manager has been developed to provide an information management technique that may be used to aid project management decision making in the pursuit of achieving the performance project success criteria.

  15. INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena RUSE

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (unchance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities internal audit department aims to improve performance management, enterprise performance and thus improve the internal control system. This paper aims to demonstrate, among other things, that any event that may result in failure is unquestionably classified as risk.

  16. Integrated supply chain risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaan Bredell

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.

  17. NPTool: Towards Scalability and Reliability of Business Process Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braghetto, Kelly Rosa; Ferreira, João Eduardo; Pu, Calton

    Currently one important challenge in business process management is provide at the same time scalability and reliability of business process executions. This difficulty becomes more accentuated when the execution control assumes complex countless business processes. This work presents NavigationPlanTool (NPTool), a tool to control the execution of business processes. NPTool is supported by Navigation Plan Definition Language (NPDL), a language for business processes specification that uses process algebra as formal foundation. NPTool implements the NPDL language as a SQL extension. The main contribution of this paper is a description of the NPTool showing how the process algebra features combined with a relational database model can be used to provide a scalable and reliable control in the execution of business processes. The next steps of NPTool include reuse of control-flow patterns and support to data flow management.

  18. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  19. Laboratory Information Management System Chain of Custody: Reliability and Security

    OpenAIRE

    Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.

    2006-01-01

    A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of a...

  20. Enterprise risk management and disclosure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Farcane

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Our paper deals with aspects regarding risk and uncertainty. Many risk management methods are today implemented in organizations. This perspective reveals that managers are linked in different forms to the activities they are managing, depending on the conditions and levels of uncertainty they are in. Actually, these multiple levels of uncertainty lead to the conclusion that any situation in an organizational system can be classified in two different models of organizational phenomena: the organizational phenomena that are putting managers and stakeholders in conditions of risk and the organizational phenomena that are putting them in condition of uncertainty. Using content analyze in this paper we survey the disclosure level of risk management information in the annual report of top Romanian listed companies.

  1. How to interpret safety critical failures in risk and reliability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvik, Jon Tømmerås; Signoret, Jean-Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Management of safety systems often receives high attention due to the potential for industrial accidents. In risk and reliability literature concerning such systems, and particularly concerning safety-instrumented systems, one frequently comes across the term ‘safety critical failure’. It is a term associated with the term ‘critical failure’, and it is often deduced that a safety critical failure refers to a failure occurring in a safety critical system. Although this is correct in some situations, it is not matching with for example the mathematical definition given in ISO/TR 12489:2013 on reliability modeling, where a clear distinction is made between ‘safe failures’ and ‘dangerous failures’. In this article, we show that different interpretations of the term ‘safety critical failure’ exist, and there is room for misinterpretations and misunderstandings regarding risk and reliability assessments where failure information linked to safety systems are used, and which could influence decision-making. The article gives some examples from the oil and gas industry, showing different possible interpretations of the term. In particular we discuss the link between criticality and failure. The article points in general to the importance of adequate risk communication when using the term, and gives some clarification on interpretation in risk and reliability assessments.

  2. RISKS IN INVESTMENT AND MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ms. Tatiana A. Ykovleva

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the features of investment risks and their causes, as well as provides a detailed classification of investment risks. The authors reveal the essence and content of the investment process, risk management, providing material for presentation in the form of a diagram. In conclusion, the article explains the use of the system of specialized institutions as a way to exclude the basic, or primary investment risk.

  3. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  4. Reliability assessment of competing risks with generalized mixed shock models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafiee, Koosha; Feng, Qianmei; Coit, David W.

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates reliability modeling for systems subject to dependent competing risks considering the impact from a new generalized mixed shock model. Two dependent competing risks are soft failure due to a degradation process, and hard failure due to random shocks. The shock process contains fatal shocks that can cause hard failure instantaneously, and nonfatal shocks that impact the system in three different ways: 1) damaging the unit by immediately increasing the degradation level, 2) speeding up the deterioration by accelerating the degradation rate, and 3) weakening the unit strength by reducing the hard failure threshold. While the first impact from nonfatal shocks comes from each individual shock, the other two impacts are realized when the condition for a new generalized mixed shock model is satisfied. Unlike most existing mixed shock models that consider a combination of two shock patterns, our new generalized mixed shock model includes three classic shock patterns. According to the proposed generalized mixed shock model, the degradation rate and the hard failure threshold can simultaneously shift multiple times, whenever the condition for one of these three shock patterns is satisfied. An example using micro-electro-mechanical systems devices illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach with sensitivity analysis. - Highlights: • A rich reliability model for systems subject to dependent failures is proposed. • The degradation rate and the hard failure threshold can shift simultaneously. • The shift is triggered by a new generalized mixed shock model. • The shift can occur multiple times under the generalized mixed shock model.

  5. Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  6. Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Bram Pieket Weeserik; Marco Spruit

    2018-01-01

    Operational Risk Management (ORM) comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM) technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined ...

  7. Scope of environmental risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Riordan, T

    1979-01-01

    Environmental risk management embraces three techniques for project appraisal: cost/benefit analysis, environmental impact analysis and risk assessment. It also explicitly relates scientific investigations to political judgments, sometimes so closely that the two cannot be separated. Indeed it is now apparent that environmental risk management encompasses procedures both to review the relative merits and priorities of policies as well as to appraise the environmental risks of particular schemes. Until recently this relationship has not been fully appreciated, so much imagination and innovation is still required to develop the most-suitable mechanisms for review.

  8. The Theme of Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chua, D. K. H.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The papers in this issue of the Journal come from different industry sectors, yet there can be a common theme that ties them together. Two of the papers address explicitly the issue of risk management, while the other three may be related to it in different degrees. One of the critical factors for project success is risk identification, as determined by Chua et al. (1999. The importance of risk management cannot be overemphasized. Failure to identify crucial risk elements in a project can lead to significant project failures in terms of cost and schedule.

  9. Tailoring Risk Management in Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tegeltija, M.; Oehmen, J.; McMahon, C. A.

    2018-01-01

    While risk quantification research has grown over the last few decades, only a limited number of studies have addressed the overall process integration of these approaches in design risk management. This paper argues that the choice of risk quantification method has strong implications for several...... process aspects. We investigate current risk management maturity models and suggest an expansion to accommodate requirements originating from the choice of quantification method, and to inform the choice of quantification method, based on other process parameters, validated through 3 case companies....

  10. Applied software risk management a guide for software project managers

    CERN Document Server

    Pandian, C Ravindranath

    2006-01-01

    Few software projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original specifications. Focusing on what practitioners need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering software projects, Applied Software Risk Management: A Guide for Software Project Managers covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for software risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. Written in a clear and concise manner, this resource presents concepts and practical insight into managing risk. It first covers risk-driven project management, risk management processes, risk attributes, risk identification, and risk analysis. The book continues by examining responses to risk, the tracking and modeling of risks, intelligence gathering, and integrated risk management. It concludes with details on drafting and implementing procedures. A diary of a risk manager provides insight in implementing risk management processes.Bringing together concepts ...

  11. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  12. Knowledge management in support of enterprise risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Rodriguez, Eduardo; Edwards, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Risk management and knowledge management have so far been studied almost independently. The evolution of risk management to the holistic view of Enterprise Risk Management requires the destruction of barriers between organizational silos and the exchange and application of knowledge from different risk management areas. However, knowledge management has received little or no attention in risk management. This paper examines possible relationships between knowledge management constructs relate...

  13. Thermal Management and Reliability of Power Electronics and Electric Machines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narumanchi, Sreekant

    2016-08-03

    Increasing the number of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) on America's roads has been identified as a strategy with near-term potential for dramatically decreasing the nation's dependence on oil -- by the U.S. Department of Energy, the federal cross-agency EV-Everywhere Challenge, and the automotive industry. Mass-market deployment will rely on meeting aggressive technical targets, including improved efficiency and reduced size, weight, and cost. Many of these advances will depend on optimization of thermal management. Effective thermal management is critical to improving the performance and ensuring the reliability of EDVs. Efficient heat removal makes higher power densities and lower operating temperatures possible, and in turn enables cost and size reductions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), along with DOE and industry partners is working to develop cost-effective thermal management solutions to increase device and component power densities. In this presentation, the activities in recent years related to thermal management and reliability of automotive power electronics and electric machines will be presented.

  14. Thermal Management and Reliability of Power Electronics and Electric Machines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narumanchi, Sreekant

    2016-06-13

    Increasing the number of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) on America's roads has been identified as a strategy with near-term potential for dramatically decreasing the nation's dependence on oil - by the U.S. Department of Energy, the federal cross-agency EV-Everywhere Challenge, and the automotive industry. Mass-market deployment will rely on meeting aggressive technical targets, including improved efficiency and reduced size, weight, and cost. Many of these advances will depend on optimization of thermal management. Effective thermal management is critical to improving the performance and ensuring the reliability of EDVs. Efficient heat removal makes higher power densities and lower operating temperatures possible, and in turn enables cost and size reductions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), along with DOE and industry partners is working to develop cost-effective thermal management solutions to increase device and component power densities. In this presentation, the activities in recent years related to thermal management and reliability of automotive power electronics and electric machines are presented.

  15. Plant Reliability - an Integrated System for Management (PR-ISM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aukeman, M.C.; Leininger, E.G.; Carr, P.

    1984-01-01

    The Toledo Edison Company, located in Toledo, Ohio, United States of America, recently implemented a comprehensive maintenance management information system for the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station. The system is called PR-ISM, meaning Plant Reliability - An Integrated System for Management. PR-ISM provides the tools needed by station management to effectively plan and control maintenance and other plant activities. The PR-ISM system as it exists today consists of four integrated computer applications: equipment data base maintenance, maintenance work order control, administrative activity tracking, and technical specification compliance. PR-ISM is designed as an integrated on-line system and incorporates strong human factors features. PR-ISM provides each responsible person information to do his job on a daily basis and to look ahead towards future events. It goes beyond 'after the fact' reporting. In this respect, PR-ISM is an 'interactive' control system which: captures work requirements and commitments as they are identified, provides accurate and up-to-date status immediately to those who need it, simplifies paperwork and reduces the associated time delays, provides the information base for work management and reliability analysis, and improves productivity by replacing clerical tasks and consolidating maintenance activities. The functional and technical features of PR-ISM, the experience of Toledo Edison during the first year of operation, and the factors which led to the success of the development project are highlighted. (author)

  16. Risk management of non-renewable energy systems

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Muruva, Hari Prasad

    2015-01-01

    This book describes the basic concepts of risk and reliability with detailed descriptions of the different levels of probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants (both internal and external). The book also maximizes readers insights into time dependent risk analysis through several case studies, whilst risk management with respect to non renewable energy sources is also explained. With several advanced reactors utilizing the concept of passive systems, the reliability estimation of these systems are explained in detail with the book providing a reliability estimation of components through mechanistic model approach. This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and post graduate students in nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, industrial engineering, reliability and safety engineering, systems engineering and applied probability and statistics. This book is also suitable for one-semester graduate courses on risk management of non renewable energy systems in all conventional engineering bran...

  17. The NASA risk management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchbinder, B.; Philipson, L.L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that the NASA Risk Management Program has been established to ensure the appropriate application of risk-based procedures in support of the elimination, reduction, or acceptance of significant safety risks of concern in NASA. The term appropriate is emphasized, in that the particular procedures applied to each given risk are to reflect its character and prioritized importance, the technological and economic feasibility of its treatment. A number of key documents have been produced in support of this implementation. Databases, risk analysis tools, and risk communication procedures requisite to the execution of the risk management functions also are being developed or documented. Several risk management applications have been made and a comprehensive application to a major new NASA program is underway. This paper summarizes the development and current status of the NASA Risk Management Program. Some principal actions that have been carried out in NASA in consonance with the program are noted particularly, and views are presented on the program's likely future directions

  18. How to manage risk better

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Walwyn, DR

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management practices in the R&D departments of many chemical and pharmaceutical companies lack much of the rigor and sophistication of the equivalent corporation in the financial sector. For instance investment decisions on research projects...

  19. Risk Management and Value Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Roggi, Oliviero

    Corporate failures, periodic recessions, regional debt crises and volatile financial markets have intensified the focus on risk management as the means to deal with turbulent conditions. The ability to respond effectively to abrupt environmental impacts is considered an important source...... of competitive advantage. Yet, surprisingly little research has analyzed whether the presumed advantages of effective risk management are associated with superior outcomes. Here we present a comprehensive study of risk management effectiveness and the relationship to corporate performance based on more than 33......,500 observations in 3,400 firms over the turbulent 20-year period 1991-2010. Determining effective risk management as the ability to reduce earnings and cash flow volatility, we find that both have significant positive relationships to lagged performance measures after controlling for industry effects, company...

  20. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  1. 76 FR 45724 - Clearing Member Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    ... proposed rules address risk management for cleared trades by futures commission merchants, swap dealers... Commission has proposed extensive regulations addressing open access and risk management at the derivatives..., 2011) (Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations). These proposed regulations...

  2. Producers' Complex Risk Management Choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Isengildina, O.; Irwin, S.H.; Garcia, P.; Good, D.L.

    2008-01-01

    Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available, making their choice(s) complex. The way producers deal with this complexity can vary and may influence the impact that the determinants, such as risk aversion, have on their choices. A recently developed choice bracketing

  3. Legal risk management in shipping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siig, Kristina

    The book discusses the most typical legal challenges met in the chartering, broker, agent or port management part of the shipping industry. It discusses these issues in both English and Scandinavian law and gives indications on how to best ensure your legal risk management in these parts...

  4. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  5. Managing Supplier Sustainability Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Harilainen, Hanna-Riitta

    2014-01-01

    Supply chains are increasingly global, often reaching to developing regions. The media pressure brand owners to be responsible, but a product is only as sustainable as the practices of all the companies involved in manufacturing it are. It’s not enough that the brand owner acts responsibly; sustainable practices have to reach component and raw material suppliers upstream. Image risk has often been recognized as reason for investing in sustainability. In the supply chain context, supplier m...

  6. Energy price risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.W.G.

    1998-01-01

    While long term, fixed price contracts for fuel procurement and export of excess power may lock in the economics of a CHP plant, these do not necessarily give the best pricing opportunities that may exist during the life of those contracts. A more prudent approach may be to vary the length of the contracts and markets are now developing in gas and electricity to assist in the management of such a portfolio. (Author)

  7. Underground risk management information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuyama, S.; Inoue, M.; Sakai, T.

    2006-03-15

    JCOAL has conducted Joint Research on an Underground Communication and Risk Management Information System with CSIRO of Australia under a commissioned study project for the promotion of coal use starting in fiscal 2002. The goal of this research project is the establishment of a new Safety System focusing on the comprehensive risk management information system by the name of Nexsys. The main components of the system are the Ethernet type underground communication system that represents the data communication base, and the risk management information system that permits risk analysis in real-time and provides decision support based on the collected data. The Nexsys is an open system and is a core element of the underground monitoring system. Using a vast amount of underground data, it is capable of accommodating a wide range of functions that were not available in the past. Because of it, it is possible to construct an advanced underground safety system. 14 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Study of evaluation techniques of software configuration management and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Youn, Cheong; Baek, Y. W.; Kim, H. C.; Han, H. C.; Choi, C. R. [Chungnam National Univ., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    The Study of activities to solve software safety and quality must be executed in base of establishing software development process for digitalized nuclear plant. Especially study of software testing and Verification and Validation must executed. For this purpose methodologies and tools which can improve software qualities are evaluated and software Testing, V and V and Configuration Management which can be applied to software life cycle are investigated. This study establish a guideline that can be used to assure software safety and reliability requirements in digitalized nuclear plant systems.

  9. Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

  10. Support to NPP operation and maintenance technology risk management. A concept for establishing criteria and procedure for the selection of components with respect to their importance. Stage 3.1. NPP equipment reliability management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stvan, F.

    2003-12-01

    A proposal was developed for a procedure using the deterministic approach to the assessment of components from the operational point of view and other aspects that cannot be directly and readily quantified and of the probabilistic approach for the assessment of component importance with respect to nuclear safety. A specific PSA study performed for the Dukovany NPP was employed. The structure of the report is as follows: (1) Aspects of component selection; (2) Introductory procedure; (3) Criteria for the selection of components with respect to their importance (4) Assessing the priority of use of the assets - effect on production, safety, and profit; (5) Assessment of the risk aspect of the assets - effect on major processes; (6) Assessment of the level of use of the assets; (7) Assessment of the structure of the assets - optimal structure for maintenance in relation to the major processes; (8) Assessment of the criteria for estimating the importance of the components; (9) Probabilistic assessment of importance from the safety aspect by means of PSA; and (10) Deterministic assessment of importance from the safety aspect. (P.A.)

  11. Risk management for noncombustion wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connor, K.K.; Rice, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    The Noncombustion Waste Risk Management Project is designed to incorporate the insights and information developed in these projects into tools that will help utilities make better noncombustion waste management decisions. Specific project goals are to synthesize information useful to utilities on noncombustion wastes, emphasize waste reduction as a priority over end-of-pipe management, develop methods to manage the costs and risks associated with noncombustion wastes (e.g., direct costs, permitting costs, liability costs, public relations costs), develop software and documentation to deliver the information and analysis methods to the industry. This project was initiated EPRI's Environment Division in late 1988. The early phases of the project involved gathering information on current noncombustion waste management practices, specific utility problems and concerns with respect to these wastes, current and potential future regulations, and current and emerging management options. Recent efforts have focused on characterizing the direct and indirect (e.g., lawsuits, remedial action) costs of managing these wastes and on developing and implementing risk management methods for a subset of wastes. The remainder of this paper describes the specific issues addressed by and the results and insights from the three completed waste-specific studies

  12. Managing the effects of aging and reliability improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Gunther, W.; Boccio, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Over recent years the electric power generating community has acknowledged the importance of the aging process on plant safety and availability. To cope with time-dependent degradation phenomena that can affect active as well as passive components and lead to unacceptable, unanticipated failures requires research into the mechanisms of the aging process, advances in predictive methods for assessing the aging impact on risk and availability, and a better understanding of power plant operations so that strategies for defending against this pervasive stress can be developed. This paper discusses current research advances and presents a framework to aid in the systematic integration of these three needs. It also discusses current research in the aging effect on electric components. As such it is anchored to research being conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory in the areas of plant aging, life extension, reliability, performance indication, and risk assessment. (orig.)

  13. Managing the effects of aging and reliability improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Gunther, W.; Boccio, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    Over recent years the electric power generating community has acknowledged the importance of the aging process on plant safety and availability. To cope with time-dependent degradation phenomena that can affect active as well as passive components and lead to unacceptable, unanticipated failures requires research into the mechanisms of the aging process, advances in predictive methods for assessing the aging impact on risk and availability, and a better understanding of power plant operations so that strategies for defending against this pervasive stress can be developed. This paper discusses current research advances and presents a framework to aid in the systematic integration of these three needs. As such it is anchored to research being conducted at Brookhaven National laboratory in the areas of plant aging, life extension, reliability, performance indication, and risk assessment

  14. Risk Management in the Exchange Fund Account

    OpenAIRE

    Michel Rochette

    2002-01-01

    In this article, author Michel Rochette of the Bank's Risk-Management Unit briefly describes the initiatives undertaken to identify, analyze, model, and manage the principal risks inherent in the transactions of the Exchange Fund Account (EFA), where the international reserves of the federal government are held. The author focuses on five types of risk: credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. In addition, the author presents the risk-management principles u...

  15. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-15

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  16. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-01

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  17. Managing relationships between electric power industry restructuring and grid reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    The electricity system is a critical infrastructure, and its continued and reliable functioning is essential to the nation's economy and well-being. However, the inter-dependency of electricity networks is not completely understood. The economic impact of outages was discussed in this white paper. It was suggested that moving to a restructured environment has degraded the reliability of the bulk system. New institutional arrangements and approaches to information management are needed. It was suggested that reliability practices caused the 2003 blackout, and not technical failures. Uncertainties in the restructured market were discussed, as well as incentives to maintain system adequacy. Examples of deregulation in other countries were presented. Organizational complexities were reviewed, including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) requirements and the new layers of complexity that have been added to the decision-making process in the light of restructuring. Planning and connectivity issues were reviewed. The need for design standards in power grid control centres was discussed. Difficulties in collecting data from different control centres were considered. Issues concerning the lack of investment in research and development were discussed, with particular reference to the urgent need for coordinated research programs. The looming manpower crisis in the electric power industry was also discussed. Recommendations included ensuring that the transmission system can support a market structure; building a national reliability centre; solving the manpower crisis; and testing market designs before deploying them. It was concluded that good engineering design principles, including experimental economic testing, should be required of any new electricity market design before authorizing its use. 31 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

  18. Managing nuclear supplier risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramberg, B.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that with the appearance of such third-tier suppliers as Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and others capable of producing nuclear components and sensitive nuclear materials, assurance that importers are using nuclear energy benignly and safely may become more uncertain. It is therefore important to integrate emerging exporters and importers into a regime of norms designed to minimize nuclear risks. The experience of the London Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to arrive at a code of conduct is encouraging. Placed in the context of the larger evolving nuclear energy regime that seeks to address nuclear safety, proliferation, terrorism, and military attacks on reactors, the international community has made substantial progress. Still, there is much that remains to be done

  19. SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina I. Frolova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake loss estimations before future events and following strong earthquakesin emergency mode and their corresponding visualization are extremely important for properdecision on preventive measures and effective response in order to save lives and properties. The paper addresses the methodological issues of seismic risk and vulnerability assessment, mapping with GIS technology application. Requirements for simulation models,databases used at different levels, as well as ways of visualizations oriented for EmergencyManagement Agencies, as well federal and local authorities are discussed. Examples ofmapping at the different levels: global, country, region and urban one are given and theinfluence of input data uncertainties on the reliability of loss computations is analyzed.

  20. 'Living PRA' concept for plant risk: Reliability and availability tracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sancaktar, S.; Sharp, D.R.

    1985-01-01

    The 'Living PRA' (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is based on placing a PRA plant model on an interactive computer. This model consists of fault tree analyses for plant systems, event tree analyses for abnormal events and site specific consequence analysis for public and/or financial risks, for a nuclear power plant. A living PRA allows updates and sensitivity analyses by the plant owner throughout the lifetime of a plant. Recently, event and fault trees from two major PRAs were placed in a computerized format. The BYRON PRA study and the Living PRA and Economic Risk examples for Indian Point Unit-3 enabled analysts to gain experience and insight into the problems of plant operation. The above concept is well established for the Nuclear Power Plant evaluation. It has been also used for evaluation of processing facilities. In these studies, systems modeling was carried out by using the GRAFTER system for automated fault tree construction. Presently both the tools and the experience exists to set up useful and viable living PRA models for nuclear and chemical processing plants to enhance risk management by the plant owners through in-house use of micro computer based models

  1. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  2. Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fournier Susan

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

  3. Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

    OpenAIRE

    Fournier Susan; Srinivasan Shuba

    2018-01-01

    In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 3. System reliability and analysis techniques, Session A - reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lofgren, E.V.

    1985-08-01

    This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the quantitative estimation of reliability at the systems level. Various methods are reviewed, but the structure provided by the fault tree method is used as the basis for system reliability estimates. The principles of fault tree analysis are briefly reviewed. Contributors to system unreliability and unavailability are reviewed, models are given for quantitative evaluation, and the requirements for both generic and plant-specific data are discussed. Also covered are issues of quantifying component faults that relate to the systems context in which the components are embedded. All reliability terms are carefully defined. 44 figs., 22 tabs

  5. Supply Chain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Babková, Ivana

    2008-01-01

    Práce se zabývá problematikou řízení rizika v logistických řetězcích se zaměřením na jeden konkrétní článek řetězce. Definuje základní oblasti risk managementu, jeho hlavní aspekty a systém spojitého plánování. Zabývá se bezpečností práce v pojetí EU, České republiky a Velké Británie. V aplikační části uvádí řízení rizika v jednom článku logistického řetězce, skladu poskytovatele logistických služeb ve Velké Británii.

  6. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.

    1996-01-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  7. Risk management for industrial safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novogno, A.

    1989-01-01

    The catastrophic accidents which have occurred in the last decade, in both developed and developing countries, have drawn the attention of decision-makers in the safety area to the urgent necessity to assess and manage risks from hazardous industrial activities which are concentrated in large industrialized areas. The aim of this paper is to review experience gained in conducting studies in the area of 'comparisons of risks in energy systems' and on the practical application of 'cost effectiveness of risk reduction analysis among different energy systems' (case studies). It is also the aim of the paper to discuss and propose a general framework for defining an 'integrated approach' to risk assessment and management in highly industrialized regions within a country. (author)

  8. Applying of Reliability Techniques and Expert Systems in Management of Radioactive Accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldaihan, S.; Alhbaib, A.; Alrushudi, S.; Karazaitri, C.

    1998-01-01

    Accidents including radioactive exposure have variety of nature and size. This makes such accidents complex situations to be handled by radiation protection agencies or any responsible authority. The situations becomes worse with introducing advanced technology with high complexity that provide operator huge information about system working on. This paper discusses the application of reliability techniques in radioactive risk management. Event tree technique from nuclear field is described as well as two other techniques from nonnuclear fields, Hazard and Operability and Quality Function Deployment. The objective is to show the importance and the applicability of these techniques in radiation risk management. Finally, Expert Systems in the field of accidents management are explored and classified upon their applications

  9. Configuration of risk monitor system by plant defense-in-depth risk monitor and reliability monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Lind Morten; Yang Ming; Hashim Muhammad; Zhang Zhijian

    2012-01-01

    A new method of risk monitor system of a nuclear power plant has been proposed from the aspect by what degree of safety functions incorporated in the plant system is maintained by multiple barriers of defense-in-depth (DiD). Wherein, the central idea is plant DiD risk monitor and reliability monitor derived from the five aspects of (1) design principle of nuclear safety based on DiD concept, (2) definition of risk and risk to be monitored, (3) severe accident phenomena as major risk, (4) scheme of risk ranking, and (5) dynamic risk display. In this paper, the overall frame of the proposed risk monitor system is summarized and the detailed discussion is made on major items such as definition of risk and risk ranking, anatomy of fault occurrence, two-layer configuration of risk monitor, how to configure individual elements of plant DiD risk monitor, and lastly how to apply for a PWR safety system. (author)

  10. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  11. Quality risk management in pharmaceutical development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charoo, Naseem Ahmad; Ali, Areeg Anwer

    2013-07-01

    The objective of ICH Q8, Q9 and Q10 documents is application of systemic and science based approach to formulation development for building quality into product. There is always some uncertainty in new product development. Good risk management practice is essential for success of new product development in decreasing this uncertainty. In quality by design paradigm, the product performance properties relevant to the patient are predefined in target product profile (TPP). Together with prior knowledge and experience, TPP helps in identification of critical quality attributes (CQA's). Initial risk assessment which identifies risks to these CQA's provides impetus for product development. Product and process are designed to gain knowledge about these risks, devise strategies to eliminate or mitigate these risks and meet objectives set in TPP. By laying more emphasis on high risk events the protection level of patient is increased. The process being scientifically driven improves the transparency and reliability of the manufacturer. The focus on risk to the patient together with flexible development approach saves invaluable resources, increases confidence on quality and reduces compliance risk. The knowledge acquired in analysing risks to CQA's permits construction of meaningful design space. Within the boundaries of the design space, variation in critical material characteristics and process parameters must be managed in order to yield a product having the desired characteristics. Specifications based on product and process understanding are established such that product will meet the specifications if tested. In this way, the product is amenable to real time release, since specifications only confirm quality but they do not serve as a means of effective process control.

  12. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management...

  13. Steam generator life-management, reliability, maintenance and refurbishment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spekkens, P.

    2012-01-01

    SGC 2012 is a different kind of a conference - it has its own focus, initiatives and objectives and differs from its predecessors. It originated as the Steam Generator and Heat Exchanger Conference in 1990 - a time when premature degradation of steam generators with Alloy 600 tubes was rampant world-wide, and some CANDU steam generators had started to experience significant fouling and corrosion issues. The six previous steam generator conferences were held on a regular cycle, in a very similar format and with a similar theme. We are now in a different era in steam generators. The Alloy 600 tubing has been largely replaced by more robust materials, and the CANDU steam generators have been brought under much more intense and effective life cycle management. Performance of steam generators has improved greatly, and they are no longer considered at risk of limiting the life of the units. Indeed, most Incoloy 800 steam generators in CANDU units are considered to be capable of operating reliably through the 'second life' of the units and are not being replaced during refurbishments. Given this changing environment, the scope of this conference has been expanded from one to three areas: steam generators and heat exchangers as before, but also; controls, valves and pumps, and; reactor components and systems, Programs A, B and C, respectively. The conference is targeting to address the needs and interests of the operating utilities, and to 'focus on what needs attention'. As a means of 'focusing on what needs attention' an 'Issue-Identification and Definition' program was initiated last winter. The Issue-Identification Team operating with COG President Bob Morrison as its Executive Lead, worked to identify issues requiring attention in the three areas of interest. Of the many issues identified by the Team and elaborated on by the Program Developers of this conference, four were recommended for special attention: A. 'Operate Clean - Build Clean - Plant Wide': Despite their

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  15. A view on risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joksimovich, V.

    1991-01-01

    The world at large has enjoyed the benefits of industrial technology for almost two centuries. The managers of industrial facilities as well as members of the public focused on the benefits and typically ignored or underestimated the inherent risks entailed in deployment of these technologies. Two examples will be given for the sake of illustration. In the chemical industry, the impacts of various chemicals on humans are insufficiently understood. In addition, it was not even known that some hazardous chemicals could be formed in the chemical reactions taking place in various chemical reactors. This is equivalent to not knowing that Cesium-iodide compound can be formed within nuclear fuel nor the impact it might have on humans if released, which is inconceivable in the nuclear industry. In the era of risk recognition, many industrial managers proclaimed that safety is everybody's business. The basic premise behind this was that since everyone is responsible, no one can be blamed for accidents. This is, however, shifting because both economics and litigation are now compelling industrial managers to consider risk in conjunction with the benefit. The government managers in many cases interpreted their charter to reap benefits first and pay the price of risks later; e.g., the case of nuclear weapons production facilities seriously contaminated by radioactive and other hazardous materials. Cost of clean-up was estimated at more than $100 billion. Of course, the authors have similar examples in many other industries, e.g., Superfund project of chemical waste sites. The challenge for the technologists is to maximize the benefit/risk ratio, keeping the risks, real or perceived, acceptably small. This brings us to the issue of acceptable risks, the topic of this paper

  16. Developing Risk Management as a Competitive Capability

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, E.; Wu, Y.; Ojiako, U.

    2013-01-01

    At the level of the firm, three major parameters are found to influence the ability of SMEs to develop risk management competencies; these are enterprise risk management, internal control, and risk culture.

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT USING PROJECT RECON

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-28

    centralized database . • Project Recon (formerly Risk Recon) is designed to be used by all Program Management Offices, Integrated Project Teams and any...Create growth plans to proactively capture benefits • Customize reports to group opportunities by programmatic, technical, business, contracting, and

  18. Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...

  19. CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-06-01

    This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

  20. PROJECT MANAGER SKILLS, RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladut Iacob

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the projects are different from each other there are many common things that contribute to their success. Looked overall, the success of a project is the result of a multitude of factors. This person is considered the "engine" of the project. The man who makes the action set for the achievement of project objectives to be brought to an end. The project manager must have the technical knowledge and economic diverse. He should be able to choose a team and lead. You must be tenacious, combative, to know how to communicate both within the team and beyond. In a word, the project manager must have an impressive stock of knowledge, skills and abilities and appreciate as Peter Drucker, to "exist for the organization. To be its servant. Any management who forget this will only cause damage to the organization. "This study will focus on highlighting the skills of the project manager and their role in managing difficult situations or risk.

  1. Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, B.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

  2. Reducing the risk, managing safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldridge, Peter

    2016-02-01

    Fire safety in healthcare premises has always been a challenge to those that discharge this duty. Statutory compliance should be a matter of course, but in an ever increasingly challenged NHS, even this is not a given. While the NHS is driven by managing very complex risk to deliver cutting edge healthcare, providers cannot be risk averse. Which risk, however, takes priority? Here Peter Aldridge, fire and corporate services manager at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, and Secretary to the National Association of Healthcare Fire Officers (NAHFO)--which will this month and next jointly stage fire safety seminars with IHEEM; see page 8--considers the key issues, with input from a fire officer at a leading mental health and community Trust.

  3. Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

  4. Procedures for controlling the risks of reliability, safety, and availability of technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The reference book covers four sections. Apart from the fundamental aspects of the reliability problem, of risk and safety and the relevant criteria with regard to reliability, the material presented explains reliability in terms of maintenance, logistics and availability, and presents procedures for reliability assessment and determination of factors influencing the reliability, together with suggestions for systems technical integration. The reliability assessment consists of diagnostic and prognostic analyses. The section on factors influencing reliability discusses aspects of organisational structures, programme planning and control, and critical activities. (DG) [de

  5. 78 FR 44557 - Revision to Transmission Vegetation Management Reliability Standard; Notice of Compliance Filing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-24

    ... Transmission Vegetation Management Reliability Standard; Notice of Compliance Filing Take notice that on July 12, 2013, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), pursuant to Order No. 777 \\1... Reliability Standard FAC-003-2 to its Web site. \\1\\ Revisions to Reliability Standard for Transmission...

  6. Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halverson, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context

  7. Assessing and Managing Knowledge Loss Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermarkar, Fred

    2013-01-01

    Summary: • Sustaining Design Basis Knowledge is a strategic need for long term safe and reliable operation; • Utilities need to manage knowledge in a systematic manner, based on identifying areas of risk, developing and implementing plans to mitigate the risk, and exercising oversight of those plans; • Approaches will differ depending upon organizational functions and needs; • Individual utility efforts are not sufficient: they need to be complemented by a larger scale infrastructure in the academic and research communities; • The Canadian nuclear industry has been collaborating to actively support and expand the academic infrastructure to sustain design basis knowledge; • KM initiatives require constant nurturing for sustainability; • Internationally recognized guidance on Characteristics, Attributes and Best Practices for governmental, industrial and academic contributions to KM is important to sustainability

  8. Integrating risk management into the baselining process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennett, N.; Tonkinson, A.

    1994-01-01

    These processes work together in building the project (comprised of the technical, schedule, and cost baselines) against which performance is measured and changes to the scope, schedule and cost of a project are managed and controlled. Risk analysis is often performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes, a precursor to establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, best business practices dictate that information that may be crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable. The purpose or risk management is not to eliminate risk. Neither is it intended to suggest wholesale re-estimating and re-scheduling of a project. Rather, the intent is to make provisions to reduce and control the schedule and/or cost ramifications of risk by anticipating events and conditions that cannot be reliably planned for and which have the potential to negatively impact accomplishment of the technical objectives and requirements of the project

  9. Risk Management for e-Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In the new Internet economy, risk management plays a critical role to protect the organization and its ability to perform their business mission, not just its IT assets. Risk management is the process of identifying risk, assessing risk, and taking steps to reduce risk to an acceptable level. The risk management is an important component of a IT security program. Information and communications technology management and IT security are responsible for ensuring that technology risks are managed appropriately. These risks originate from the deployment and use of IT assets in various ways, such as configuring systems incorrectly or gaining access to restricted software.

  10. Risk Management Practices by Barbadian Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Wood

    2013-07-01

    The main findings of the paper are: risk managers perceive risk management as critical to their banks’ performance; the types of risks causing the greatest exposures are credit risk, operational risk, country/sovereign risk, interest rate risk and market risk; there was a high level of success with current risk management practices and these practices have evolved over time in line with the changing economic environment and regulatory updates. Overall, the findings suggest strongly that in light of the current depressed economic climate, banks operating in Barbados are indeed risk-focused or might we say “risk intelligent”.

  11. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

  12. Risk Management for Food Allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risk Management for Food Allergy is developed by a team of scientists and industry professionals who understand the importance of allergen risk assessment and presents practical, real-world guidance for food manufacturers. With more than 12 million Americans suffering from food allergies and little...... appropriate "safe" thresholds of ingredients, the food industry must take increasingly proactive steps to avoid direct or cross-contamination as well as ensuring that their products are appropriately labeled and identified for those at risk. This book covers a range of critical topics in this area, including...... indication of what is causing that number to continue to grow, food producers, packagers and distributors need to appropriately process, label and deliver their products to ensure the safety of customers with allergic conditions. By identifying risk factors during processing as well as determining...

  13. Maintenance risk management in Dayabay nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Xuhong; Tong Jiejuan

    2005-01-01

    The importance of proper maintenance to safe and reliable nuclear plant operation has long been recognized by the nuclear utility and regulatory body. This paper presents a process of maintenance risk management developed for a Chinese Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The process includes three phases: (I) long term maintenance plan risk management, (II) monthly maintenance plan risk management, and (III) detailed risk management for high risk configuration. A risk matrix is developed for phase I whose purpose is to provide a rough guide for risk management in the making of the annual maintenance plan. For Phase II and Phase III, a software tool named Maintenance- Risk-Monitor is developed based on the internal initiating event, level 1 PSA model. The results of Phase II are the risk information of the all plant configurations caused by the unavailability of the components included the monthly maintenance plan. When the increase of core damage frequency (CDF) or the incremental core damage probability (ICDP) of a configuration is higher than the corresponding thresholds, Phase III is needed for this high risk configuration to get the useful information such as risk-importance components, human actions and initial events, from which appropriate preventive measurements could be derived. It is hoped that the provided process of maintenance risk management, together with the developed software tool, could facilitate the maintenance activities in the NPPs of China. (authors)

  14. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  15. Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.

    Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, in...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs.......Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

  16. Risk-based Optimization and Reliability Levels of Coastal Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.

    2005-01-01

     Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure, i...... on the minimumcost reliability levels is investigated for different values of the real rate of interest, the service lifetime, the downtime costs due to malfunction and the decommission costs....... Identification of optimum reliability levels for coastal structures is considered. A class of breakwaters is considered where no human injuries can be expected in cases of failure. The optimum reliability level is identified by minimizing the total costs over the service life of the structure...

  17. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk management...

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  19. Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria POPESCU

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.

  20. Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almaula, S.C. [Woodward-Clyde International, Oakland, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Hanford Tanks Initiative risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaus, P.S.

    1997-01-01

    This project-specific Risk Management Guide describes the general approach and process being used by the HTI Project to manage risk associated with execution of the HTI mission. It includes the initial identification of risk and the quantification of its likelihood and severity of its consequences. It further addresses the formulation of risk mitigation plans, periodic statusing of the Risk Management List, and risk closure

  2. Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....

  3. Risk management in microfinance institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Batin, Artyom

    2014-01-01

    In the following paper I have tried to find the correlation between type of ownership and effective risk management in the operations of microfinance institutions in India. The results found are consistent with the current findings of how the type of ownership does not impact both the financial or social performance of MFIs. Dataset of 72 MFIs was acquired from the Microfinance Information Exchange on MFIs and evaluated using an OLS regression. The results show that the type of ownership insi...

  4. Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this presentation is to discuss the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline, their differences and similarities, and how they are used as complimentary analyses to support design and flight decisions.

  5. Risk management in nuclear power social aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sappa, N.N.

    1996-01-01

    Problems connected with safety evaluation and risk management during operation of nuclear power installations are considered. Social aspects of risk assessment of enterprises with increased danger are discussed

  6. Strategic raw materials. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertau, Martin; Matschullat, Joerg; Kausch, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This volume is divided into four chapters: (1) Raw material management, (2) Primary raw materials, (3) Secondary raw materials and recycling, (4). Processing and products. The topics for the chapter ''Raw material management'' are: Substitution of raw materials - framework conditions and implementation; Thales: Strategic raw materials; Time for cooperation between the EU and China in raw materials policy; Availability of elements for the semiconductor industry; Market price risks of raw material-intensive companies - identification and management. The topics on the second item ''Primary raw materials'' are: The supply of economic-critical raw materials - A search and analysis for causes; Lithium extraction from primary raw materials - state and perspectives; The global market of rare earths - A balancing act; Rare earth deposits in Namibia; New technologies in exploration and discovery - Focus on activities in Europe. The third chapter, ''Secondary Raw Materials and Recycling'', covered the topics: Technology metals - Systemic Requirements along the recycling chain; Integrated re-use of high-tech and greentech wastes; From the sewage sludge ash to the phosphorus fertilizer RecoPhos P38 in the stress field of waste, fertilizer and soil protection. In chapter 4. ''Processing and products'' are the topics: Treatment and processing of rare earth metals; Processing of mineral resources - opportunities and challenges; Consequences of modern germanium chemistry; Strategic resources - Risk management. A review and outlook with a pinch of fantasy.. [de

  7. Executive Assistant – Risk Management and Internal Audit / Office of ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Under the supervision of the Director, Risk Management and Internal Audit, the ... filing system which includes ensuring all information related to RMIA's activities is ... Maintains reliable accounting/budgeting records of fees and expenditures ... The Executive Assistant's responsibilites have a direct impact on Director's and ...

  8. Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Birnie; E.A.P. Steegers; Drs. H.W. Torij; M.J. Veen; J. Poeran; G.J. Bonsel

    2015-01-01

    A population-based cross-sectional study (feasibility) and a cohort study (inter-rater reliability) to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal

  9. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  10. Risk management in product innovation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    In product innovation projects risk management has become increasingly important. Technological and commercial developments ask for effective and efficient product innovation. Systematic diagnosing and management of risks can help to make product innovation projects successful. In this paper a

  11. Drug utilization research and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzaglia, Giampiero; Mol, Peter G. M.; Elseviers, Monique; Wettermark, Björn; Almarsdóttir, Anna Birna; Andersen, Morten; Benko, Ria; Bennie, Marion; Eriksson, Irene; Godman, Brian; Krska, Janet; Poluzzi, Elisabetta; Taxis, Katja; Vlahovic-Palcevski, Vera; Stichele, Robert Vander

    2016-01-01

    Good risk management requires continuous evaluation and improvement of planned activities. The evaluation impact of risk management activities requires robust study designs and carefully selected outcome measures. Key learnings and caveats from drug utilization research should be applied to the

  12. Operational Risk Management and Military Aviation Safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashley, Park

    1999-01-01

    .... The Army's Class A aviation mishap rate declined after it implemented risk management (RM) principles in 1987. This reduction caught the attention of Air Force leadership who have since stated that the application of operational risk management...

  13. AREVA Logistics Business Unit Transportation Risk Management Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anne, C.

    2009-01-01

    A safe, secure and reliable transportation organization is a key component for the success of the nuclear industry. With the forecasted increase of radioactive material transport flows in future and the changing environment, AREVA Logistic Business Unit (L-BU) must ensure that safety and security risks are minimized but also ensure of the chain supply for its various facilities (mines, conversion, enrichment, fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, etc). AREVA L-BU Unit is implementing a transportation risk management initiative for the radioactive shipments of the AREVA group across all the Business Unit involved in shipments of radioactive and nuclear materials. The paper will present the four main components of the risk management. (authors)

  14. THEORETICAL BASIS FOR MANAGEMENT OF PERSONNEL RISKS

    OpenAIRE

    Haliashova, Katsiaryna

    2017-01-01

    Necessity of personnel risks management is based on research results. The authors' approaches to the determination of personnel risks and to their management have been explored. The author's definition of the concept of "personnel risks" is proposed. A classification of personnel risks is developed depending on the stage of origin and the tasks of the personnel policy, as well as the methods of management personnel risks in the organization. The article presents a methodical approach to perso...

  15. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may take...

  16. Study of International Standards of Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dykan Volodymyr L.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of existing international standards of risk management, an important factor of improvement of risk management in domestic corporations and enterprises and development of recommendations on application of international standards in Ukraine, in particular, within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management. The conducted study shows that approaches on organisation of the process of risk management, used in standards of risk management, are of general character and differ with the degree of detailing. Their undoubted value in development of risk management in Ukraine is identification of a general direction of building corporate systems of risk management in practice. The said approaches at the national and corporate levels of standardisation in Ukraine within the framework of building corporate systems of risk management would allow improvement of risk management in corporations and enterprises. The prospect of further studies of domestic specialists in the field of risk management is development of the domestic standard of risk management with consideration of modern domestic specific features of development of risk management in Ukraine and leading foreign experience.

  17. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  18. Construction Management Risk System (CMRS for Construction Management (CM Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungmo Park

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available After the global financial crisis of 2008, the need for risk management arose because it was necessary to minimize the losses in construction management (CM firms. This was caused by a decreased amount of orders in the Korean CM market, which intensified order competition between companies. However, research results revealed that risks were not being systematically managed owing to the absence of risk management systems. Thus, it was concluded that it was necessary to develop standard operating systems and implement risk management systems in order to manage risks effectively. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a construction risk management system (CRMS for systematically managing risks. For this purpose, the field operation managers of CM firms were interviewed and surveyed in order to define risk factors. Upon this, a risk assessment priority analysis was performed. Finally, a risk management system that comprised seven modules and 20 sub-modules and was capable of responding systematically to risks was proposed. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this system was verified through on-site inspection. This system allows early response to risks, accountability verification and immediate response to legal disputes with clients by managing risk records.

  19. Designing reliable supply chain network with disruption risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Bozorgi Amiri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although supply chains disruptions rarely occur, their negative effects are prolonged and severe. In this paper, we propose a reliable capacitated supply chain network design (RSCND model by considering random disruptions in both distribution centers and suppliers. The proposed model determines the optimal location of distribution centers (DC with the highest reliability, the best plan to assign customers to opened DCs and assigns opened DCs to suitable suppliers with lowest transportation cost. In this study, random disruption occurs at the location, capacity of the distribution centers (DCs and suppliers. It is assumed that a disrupted DC and a disrupted supplier may lose a portion of their capacities, and the rest of the disrupted DC's demand can be supplied by other DCs. In addition, we consider shortage in DCs, which can occur in either normal or disruption conditions and DCs, can support each other in such circumstances. Unlike other studies in the extent of literature, we use new approach to model the reliability of DCs; we consider a range of reliability instead of using binary variables. In order to solve the proposed model for real-world instances, a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II is applied. Preliminary results of testing the proposed model of this paper on several problems with different sizes provide seem to be promising.

  20. Development of funding project risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

  1. Risk management and audit | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... a well defined strategic and program framework and sound management processes; and ... A Risk Management Committee supports and monitors the Centre's ... placed on our highly qualified staff in our management of human resources.

  2. Managing risk with renewable resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brower, M.C.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney, P.; Bell, K.

    1997-01-01

    One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. With assistance from Convergence Research, Charles River Associates, and the Tellus Institute, the authors tested this hypothesis by conducting an in-depth analysis of the risk implications of a decision to build a 1,600 MW wind power plant instead of a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant. (The two plants were assumed to have equal firm capacity.) The case study utility was Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The uncertain inputs included fuel prices, environmental regulations (specifically, CO 2 and air pollution controls), wind plant output, conventional plant availability, and load growth. Two different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation and an unregulated wholesale market characterized either by a power pool or fixed-price contracts of varying duration. Conclusions are striking: under traditional regulation, wind energy provides a net present-value risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh

  3. Managing risks: Seveso and Harrisburg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads-Herzog, A.; Krebsbach-Gnath, C.

    1980-01-01

    The publications dealing with the technical, organisation-relevant, and social preconditions for risk strategies rely on second-hand information, i.e. the conclusions which are drawn from the production accident in Seveso and the TMI-accident. A comparison results in common facts as well as in fundamental differences. In contrast to the authorities in Italy the authorities in the United States intervened more rapidly; the management of necessary measures was taken over by the authorities and very good information was given. (DG) [de

  4. 77 FR 64920 - Revisions to Reliability Standard for Transmission Vegetation Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-24

    ... reliability of the Bulk Electric System.'' NERC defines ``System Operating Limit'' as ``[t]he value (such as... values or gives reason to revisit the Reliability Standard. Accordingly, consistent with the activity...] Revisions to Reliability Standard for Transmission Vegetation Management AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory...

  5. 78 FR 22773 - Revisions to Reliability Standard for Transmission Vegetation Management; Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-17

    ...; Order No. 777] Revisions to Reliability Standard for Transmission Vegetation Management; Correction... modifying certain Reliability Standards. DATES: Effective on May 28, 2013. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT... Requirement R2 of Reliability Standard FAC-003-2 within 45 days of the effective date of the Final Rule, while...

  6. The Reliability of EMU FIscal Indicators: Risks and Safeguards

    OpenAIRE

    Fabrizio Balassone; Daniele Franco; Stefania Zotteri

    2007-01-01

    The reliability of EMU�s fiscal indicators has been questioned by recent episodes of large upward deficit revisions. This paper discusses the causes of such revisions in order to identify ways to improve monitoring. The computation of EMU�s deficit indicator involves the assessment of accrued revenue and expenditure and the identification of transactions in financial assets. Both can open margins for opportunistic accounting. However, crosschecks between deficit and changes in gross nomin...

  7. Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

    2017-07-01

    A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  9. Enterprise Content Management Implementation and Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslava Klegová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise Content Management (ECM solutions are commonly used in many areas such as document management, record management, digital asset management, etc. Key features of ECM systems are capturing, indexing, preserving and retrieving of digital information. The state-of-the- art ECM solution can help revolutionize document management and further automated business processes which can lead to better decisions and competitive advantage. Risk management can reduce project failure and that is why controlling risk in ECM implementation projects is considered to be a major contributor to project success. To manage software risk, the first step is to identify a list of ECM projects’ risks. The present paper provides an overview of ECM implementation risks and contains findings from a small survey on experience of ECM implementation and risk in Czech enterprises. Risk of implementation in the public sector is discussed more deeply with case study examples.

  10. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  11. PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JELER (POPA IOANA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to counter risks occurrence. In this article we present also means managing risk and why needs to be implemented at institutional level a risk management. The paper concludes by highlight the role of efficient risk management in the company’s management and company's activities.

  12. Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillaman, Gary

    2012-01-01

    The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

  13. Quantifiable and Reliable Structural Health Management Systems, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Major concerns for implementing a practical built-in structural health monitoring system are prediction accuracy and data reliability. It is proposed to develop...

  14. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  15. Commercializing fuel cells: managing risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter B.

    Commercialization of fuel cells, like any other product, entails both financial and technical risks. Most of the fuel cell literature has focussed upon technical risks, however, the most significant risks during commercialization may well be associated with the financial funding requirements of this process. Successful commercialization requires an integrated management of these risks. Like any developing technology, fuel cells face the typical 'Catch-22' of commercialization: "to enter the market, the production costs must come down, however, to lower these costs, the cumulative production must be greatly increased, i.e. significant market penetration must occur". Unless explicit steps are taken to address this dilemma, fuel cell commercialization will remain slow and require large subsidies for market entry. To successfully address this commercialization dilemma, it is necessary to follow a market-driven commercialization strategy that identifies high-value entry markets while minimizing the financial and technical risks of market entry. The financial and technical risks of fuel cell commercialization are minimized, both for vendors and end-users, with the initial market entry of small-scale systems into high-value stationary applications. Small-scale systems, in the order of 1-40 kW, benefit from economies of production — as opposed to economies to scale — to attain rapid cost reductions from production learning and continuous technological innovation. These capital costs reductions will accelerate their commercialization through market pull as the fuel cell systems become progressively more viable, starting with various high-value stationary and, eventually, for high-volume mobile applications. To facilitate market penetration via market pull, fuel cell systems must meet market-derived economic and technical specifications and be compatible with existing market and fuels infrastructures. Compatibility with the fuels infrastructure is facilitated by a

  16. Managing Risks in Dry Port Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciortescu Cezar-Gabriel; Pãvãla?cu Narcis Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to have an in-depth look into the phenomenon of risk assessment and risk management strategies in managing dry port operations as an integrated part into international containerized freight trade. The fact that world crises take the form of disruptions, bankruptcies, breakdowns, macroeconomic and political changes, and disasters leads to higher risks and makes risk management more and more difficult. This paper aims to discuss the theory behind the dry port concep...

  17. BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS INTO SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandra-Codruta Popescu (Bîzoi); Cristian-Gabriel Bîzoi

    2015-01-01

    Literature has focused largely on the field of supply chain risk management. Numerous risks occur within supply chain management. Until lately, behavioural risks (implying large amount of losses) have been neglected and considered not relevant. In this paper we provide an analysis of the importance of including behavioural research in logistics and supply chain risk management, what has been written so far and potential future research directions. Until now, literature on logistics and supply...

  18. Using Bayesian belief networks for reliability management : construction and evaluation: a step by step approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, M.J.H.A.

    2010-01-01

    In the capital goods industry, there is a growing need to manage reliability throughout the product development process. A number of trends can be identified that have a strong effect on the way in which reliability prediction and management is approached, i.e.: - The lifecycle costs approach that

  19. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  20. Design and implementation of component reliability database management system for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. H.; Jung, J. K.; Choi, S. Y.; Lee, Y. H.; Han, S. H.

    1999-01-01

    KAERI is constructing the component reliability database for Korean nuclear power plant. This paper describes the development of data management tool, which runs for component reliability database. This is running under intranet environment and is used to analyze the failure mode and failure severity to compute the component failure rate. Now we are developing the additional modules to manage operation history, test history and algorithms for calculation of component failure history and reliability

  1. Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis, an Underutilized Safety, Reliability, Project Management and Systems Engineering Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullin, Daniel Richard

    2013-09-01

    The majority of space programs whether manned or unmanned for science or exploration require that a Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) be performed as part of their safety and reliability activities. This comes as no surprise given that FMECAs have been an integral part of the reliability engineer's toolkit since the 1950s. The reasons for performing a FMECA are well known including fleshing out system single point failures, system hazards and critical components and functions. However, in the author's ten years' experience as a space systems safety and reliability engineer, findings demonstrate that the FMECA is often performed as an afterthought, simply to meet contract deliverable requirements and is often started long after the system requirements allocation and preliminary design have been completed. There are also important qualitative and quantitative components often missing which can provide useful data to all of project stakeholders. These include; probability of occurrence, probability of detection, time to effect and time to detect and, finally, the Risk Priority Number. This is unfortunate as the FMECA is a powerful system design tool that when used effectively, can help optimize system function while minimizing the risk of failure. When performed as early as possible in conjunction with writing the top level system requirements, the FMECA can provide instant feedback on the viability of the requirements while providing a valuable sanity check early in the design process. It can indicate which areas of the system will require redundancy and which areas are inherently the most risky from the onset. Based on historical and practical examples, it is this author's contention that FMECAs are an immense source of important information for all involved stakeholders in a given project and can provide several benefits including, efficient project management with respect to cost and schedule, system engineering and requirements management

  2. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  3. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT OF GERMAN FRUIT PRODUCERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annkatrin PORSCH

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Horticultural farms in Germany face substantial business risks. However, fruit farms often struggle to implement appropriate risk management processes, and the risk management literature widely has ignored this farm type. The aim of the study was to improve the assessment of risks by farmers and the choice of suitable risk management instruments. Therefore, a risk management process based on subjective probabilities and suitable for small and medium-sized farms was developed, considering the specific needs of family run businesses. An online survey was conducted to achieve a comprehensive view of the risk perception and risk management practices of German fruit producers. Price and production risks are the most relevant risk categories for fruit farmers. However, among single risk sources, those in the people risk category were seen as the most important. Results show significant interactions among risk categories and a significant correlation between loss experience and the rating of risk categories. The assumption that risk averse farmers generally rate risks higher than risk neutral or risk seeking farmers cannot be confirmed. Diversification seems to be the most important risk management instrument for many fruit producers, especially diversification of marketing channels, farm income, and production activities. Further research should focus on the apparent inconsistency between the satisfaction with instruments reported by farmers and the actual implementation of many of them (e.g., hail insurance and anti-hail net. Furthermore, there is a need for research, to develop decision models considering the interactions of risks and risk management instruments, loss experience and risk seeking attitudes.

  5. CEA - Assessment of risk management 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2014-06-01

    After some introducing texts by CEA managers, this report proposes a rather detailed overview and presentation of CEA activities, objectives and obtained results in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal controls and audits, activity of the risk management department, CEA activities from research to industry

  6. [The relevance of clinical risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

    2011-01-01

    Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

  7. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Odd Einar; Langhelle, Oluf; Engen, Ole A. [Univ. of Stavanger (Norway). Dept. of Media, Culture and Social Science

    2006-09-15

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development.

  8. Contradictions Between Risk Management and Sustainable Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, Odd Einar; Langhelle, Oluf; Engen, Ole A.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to discuss how risk management as a methodology and mindset influence on priorities and decisions concerning sustainable development. Management of risks and hazards often rely on partial analysis with a limited time frame. This may lead to a paradoxical situation where risk management and extended use of risk analysis could hamper long term sustainable development. The question is: Does the use of risk and vulnerability analysis (RaV-analysis) hamper or contribute to sustainable development? Because risk management and assessment has a more narrow scope and a limited time perspective based on well established methodologies, the tangible impacts of risk reducing measures in a project is easier to calculate than long-term and intangible impacts on global development. Empirical evidence is still scarce, but our preliminary conclusion is that mainstream risk management and assessments is counterproductive to sustainable development

  9. Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adam-Müller, A F A; Panaretou, A

    2009-01-01

    Futures hedging creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters if interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a markup over the risk-free rate. This study analyzes the optimal risk management and production decisions of a firm facing joint price and liquidity risk. It provides a rationale for the use of options on futures in imperfect capital markets. If liquidity risk materializes, the firm sells options on futures in order to partly cover this liqui...

  10. Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bishu, Kinfe G.; O'Reilly, Seamus; Lahiff, Edward

    2018-01-01

    This study analyzes cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use survey data from a sample of 356 farmers based on multistage random sampling. Factor analysis is employed to classify scores of risk and management strategies, and multiple...... utilization were perceived as the most important strategies for managing risks. Livestock disease and labor shortage were perceived as less of a risk by farmers who adopted the practice of zero grazing compared to other farmers, pointing to the potential of this practice for risk reduction. We find strong...... evidence that farmers engage in multiple risk management practices in order to reduce losses from cattle morbidity and mortality. The results suggest that government strategies that aim at reducing farmers’ risk need to be tailored to specific farm and farmer characteristics. Findings from this study have...

  11. Testing the reliability of the Fall Risk Screening Tool in an elderly ambulatory population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Susan J; McKay, Michael; Hyrkas, Kristiina

    2013-11-01

    To identify and test the reliability of a fall risk screening tool in an ambulatory outpatient clinic. The Fall Risk Screening Tool (Albert Lea Medical Center, MN, USA) was scripted for an interview format. Two interviewers separately screened a convenience sample of 111 patients (age ≥ 65 years) in an ambulatory outpatient clinic in a northeastern US city. The interviewers' scoring of fall risk categories was similar. There was good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.834-0.889) and inter-rater reliability [intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.824-0.881] for total, Risk Factor and Client's Health Status subscales. The Physical Environment scores indicated acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.742) and adequate reliability (ICC = 0.688). Two Physical Environment items (furniture and medical equipment condition) had low reliabilities [Kappa (K) = 0.323, P = 0.08; K = -0.078, P = 0.648), respectively. The scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool demonstrated good reliability in this sample. Rewording two Physical Environment items will be considered. A reliable instrument such as the scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool provides a standardised assessment for identifying high fall risk patients. This tool is especially useful because it assesses personal, behavioural and environmental factors specific to community-dwelling patients; the interview format also facilitates patient-provider interaction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  13. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soszynska, Joanna

    2010-01-01

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  14. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2010-02-15

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  15. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Guizhen; Zhang Lei; Lu Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China.

  16. Application of Risk Management for Control and Monitoring Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Grau, S; Balda, F; Chouvelon, A

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an application of the state of the art and new trends for risk management of safety-related control and monitoring systems, currently applied in the industry. These techniques not only enable to manage safety and reliability issues but they also help in the control of quality and economic factors affected by the availability and maintenance of the system. The method includes an unambiguous definition of the system in terms of functions and a systematic analysis of hazardous situations, undesired events and possible malfunctions. It also includes the identification and quantification of the risk associated to the system. The required risk reduction is specified in terms of safety integrity levels. The safety integrity level results in requirements, preventive measures, possible improvements and recommendations to assure the satisfactory management of the risk.

  17. Benchmarking Outdoor Expeditionary Program Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerts-Brandsma, Lisa; Furman, Nate; Sibthorp, Jim

    2017-01-01

    In 2003, the University of Utah and the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) completed a study that developed a risk management taxonomy in the outdoor adventure industry and assessed how different outdoor expeditionary programs (OEPs) managed risk (Szolosi, Sibthorp, Paisley, & Gookin, 2003). By unifying the language around risk, the…

  18. Information risk management a practitioner's guide

    CERN Document Server

    Sutton, David

    2014-01-01

    Information risk management (IRM) is about identifying, assessing and prioritising risks to keep information secure and available. This accessible book provides practical guidance to the principles and development of a strategic approach to an IRM programme. The only textbook for the BCS Practitioner Certificate in Information Risk Management.

  19. Active Risk Management and Banking Stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silva Buston, C.F.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: This paper analyzes the net impact of two opposing effects of active risk management at banks on their stability: higher risk-taking incentives and better isolation of credit supply from varying economic conditions. We present a model where banks actively manage their portfolio risk by

  20. Risk Management and Financial Derivatives: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRisk management is crucial for optimal portfolio management. One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance is the expansion of financial derivatives. The purpose of this special issue on “Risk Management and Financial Derivatives” is to highlight some areas in which novel

  1. Maintenance management of railway infrastructures based on reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macchi, Marco; Garetti, Marco; Centrone, Domenico; Fumagalli, Luca; Piero Pavirani, Gian

    2012-01-01

    Railway infrastructure maintenance plays a crucial role for rail transport. It aims at guaranteeing safety of operations and availability of railway tracks and related equipment for traffic regulation. Moreover, it is one major cost for rail transport operations. Thus, the increased competition in traffic market is asking for maintenance improvement, aiming at the reduction of maintenance expenditures while keeping the safety of operations. This issue is addressed by the methodology presented in the paper. The first step of the methodology consists of a family-based approach for the equipment reliability analysis; its purpose is the identification of families of railway items which can be given the same reliability targets. The second step builds the reliability model of the railway system for identifying the most critical items, given a required service level for the transportation system. The two methods have been implemented and tested in practical case studies, in the context of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana, the Italian public limited company for railway transportation.

  2. Risk management at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Strait, R.S.

    1993-10-01

    Managing risks at a large national laboratory presents a unique set of challenges. These challenges include the management of a broad diversity of activities, the need to balance research flexibility against management control, and a plethora of requirements flowing from regulatory and oversight bodies. This paper will present the experiences of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in risk management and in dealing with these challenges. While general risk management has been practiced successfully by all levels of Laboratory management, this paper will focus on the Laboratory's use of probabilistic safety assessment and prioritization techniques and the integration of these techniques into Laboratory operations

  3. Risk factor management: antiatherogenic therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel

    2009-08-01

    Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.

  4. Strategies for successful software development risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Boban

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, software is becoming a major part of enterprise business. Software development is activity connected with advanced technology and high level of knowledge. Risks on software development projects must be successfully mitigated to produce successful software systems. Lack of a defined approach to risk management is one of the common causes for project failures. To improve project chances for success, this work investigates common risk impact areas to perceive a foundation that can be used to define a common approach to software risk management. Based on typical risk impact areas on software development projects, we propose three risk management strategies suitable for a broad area of enterprises and software development projects with different amounts of connected risks. Proposed strategies define activities that should be performed for successful risk management, the one that will enable software development projects to perceive risks as soon as possible and to solve problems connected with risk materialization. We also propose a risk-based approach to software development planning and risk management as attempts to address and retire the highest impact risks as early as possible in the development process. Proposed strategies should improve risk management on software development projects and help create a successful software solution.

  5. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  6. Risk and/or resilience management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Paul Louisot

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk management aims at managing all the uncertainties that may interfere with the objectives and missions of the organization. Resilience engineering aims at building its capacity to get over disturbances or stress while keeping the functionalities needed to survive, and possibly thrive. A recently open debate on an Internet blog launched by the risk managers of the Scottish Widows Bank seems to arise from what some professionals see as two competing branches of the management sciences. Whereas through the development of ERM – Enterprise-wide Risk Managementrisk management is emerging at last to become a science, as well as an art and a practice, the mentioned above centered on the role of a newly forged name “resilience management”. This opens a new front of the many debates that could derail the path to maturity of Risk Management as a science and reopen new silos much as Business Impact Analysis, BIA, or continuity management, might do if a clear distinction is not made between science, objectives and tools. However, because organizations are so interconnected today in the supply cloud that it is inevitable that they will face catastrophic risk and this is why resilience needs to be a core objective of any risk management plan? Whereas traditional risk management techniques alone may not be adequate to deal with such pervasive and insipient risk scenarios, resilience is ingrained into ERM

  7. Risk Management in Mergers and Acquisitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry O. Verdiev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available M&A statistics show that less than a third of newly merged companies has realized their planned synergistic effects and increased shareholder value. According to the author, such disgusting situation is due to improper planning and failure of corporate management to understand the importance of risk management in M&A. Lack of practice in identification, evaluation, mitigation and regular monitoring of risks leads to the situation when many companies merge despite the fact that the merger bears substantial risks. Corporate management fails to include risk mitigation expenses in merger costs. In many cases, risk mitigation expenses may be so substantive that the merger loses its attractiveness. Only few companies implement risk management methodology while planning M&A activity. This methodology may anticipate and minimize the consequences of various risk factors that negatively influence integration process. The article suggests an implementation of risk management best practice. This risk management best practice may act as an effective tool of successful realization of synergistic effects in M&A and may be helpful in increasing shareholder value in post-merger period. Risk management is conducted throughout the stages of merger and includes identification, analysis, assessment, management and monitoring of risks. Implementation of risk management at early stages of merger planning significantly decreases uncertainty in relation to achievement of financial and operational goals of newly merged company. The article provides with typical M&A risk matrix that may be adapted for specific M&A project. Risk matrix includes a register of risks sorted by stages of M&A deal, quality assessment of their probability, influence and impact on merger as well as risk mitigation methods.

  8. 77 FR 13585 - Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-07

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline AGENCY... Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process guideline. The guideline describes a risk... Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline. The primary goal of this guideline is to describe a risk...

  9. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  10. Continuous Risk Management: A NASA Program Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

    1999-01-01

    NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

  11. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  12. Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software

  13. Implications of Risk Management Practices on Financial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Implications of Risk Management Practices on Financial Performance of Sugar ... The respondents were functional heads of the companies under the survey. ... of downside losses in order to minimize the negative impact of risk on returns.

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT MECHANISM OF GRAIN PROCESSING ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. P. Bogomolova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In article the main characteristics of a control system by risks (the purpose, properties, the principles, requirements are defined, and also the possible mechanism of risk management of the flour-grinding enterprises is considered.

  15. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmela, Olli

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered

  16. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmela, Olli [Nokia Networks, P.O. Box 301, 00045 Nokia Group (Finland)]. E-mail: olli.salmela@nokia.com

    2005-08-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered.

  17. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  18. Business resilience: Reframing healthcare risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeone, Cynthia L

    2015-09-01

    The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions. © 2015 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  20. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  1. Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Kent D.

    1994-01-01

    Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...

  2. PERFORMANCE IN INTERNAL CONTROL AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    JELER (POPA) IOANA; FOCŞAN ELEONORA IONELA; CORICI MARIAN CĂTĂLIN

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of internal control and risk management. In practice, economic entities meet a variety of risks that have the origins from the internal environment or the external one. Although there are different of views on addressing the concept of risk - threats or opportunities, event or action, accordingly uncertain, proposed by specialists in risk management in this article we try to present these issues and identify techniques to ...

  3. APPLIED ISSUES ABOUT BANKING RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Geanina Clipici

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The following paper emphasizes the need to deepen the understanding of the notion of banking risk management by explaining the significant risks the bank encounters during financial exercises as well as their additional entries. The study of the paper will focus on UniCredit Bank during the years 2014 and  2015 on all types of risks, in which we will provide comprehensive data on how the UniCredit Bank management applies its risk policies.

  4. CEA - Assessment of risk management for 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige

    2013-06-01

    This report proposes an overview of the main events, actions performed by the CEA, and facts for 2012 regarding protection and monitoring of the environment, installation safety, occupational health and safety, radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, emergency situation management, legal risk management, internal controls and audits. It also presents the organisation and action of the risk management department within the CEA

  5. Management Ownership and Risk-Shifting Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuyuki Teshima

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the relationship between management ownership and its risk-shifting incentive. We first present a simple model showing that the risk-shifting incentive of management of financially distressed firms increases as the management ownership of the firm increases. Empirically, we test the hypothesis that under the former Japanese Corporate Reorganization Law, firms with higher management ownership are more likely to use legal rather than private reorganization. Since the reorgan...

  6. Feedback on flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the

  7. Risk Management for the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

    2002-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

  8. Social Risk and the Management of MNCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taarup Esbensen, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    Multinational companies (MNCs) are increasing being exposed to risk that originate from local communities in the business environment where they operate. The response has been to implement systems for stakeholder engagement by including social issues into their risk management systems. However......” systems, which are based on the capability to identify frames and sensemaking processes. This paper show how social risk management can be conventionalised using distinct theoretical domains taking its outset in a sociological perspective on risk, linking International Business (IB) risk management...

  9. Models for reliability and management of NDT data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper the reliability of NDT measurements was approached from three directions. We have modelled the flaw sizing performance, the probability of flaw detection, and developed models to update the knowledge of true flaw size based on sequential measurement results and flaw sizing reliability model. In discussed models the measured flaw characteristics (depth, length) are assumed to be simple functions of the true characteristics and random noise corresponding to measurement errors, and the models are based on logarithmic transforms. Models for Bayesian updating of the flaw size distributions were developed. Using these models, it is possible to take into account the prior information of the flaw size and combine it with the measured results. A Bayesian approach could contribute e. g. to the definition of an appropriate combination of practical assessments and technical justifications in NDT system qualifications, as expressed by the European regulatory bodies

  10. Risks management in project planning

    OpenAIRE

    Stankevičiūtė, Roberta

    2017-01-01

    Project management consists of two very important aspects – managing the right project and managing the project right. To know that you are managing the right project you need to ensure that your project is based on an actual requirement and that your project goal is relevant and beneficial. And professional project planning assists in managing project the right way. The project planning process is very time consuming and is one of the most important parts of the project management process. T...

  11. Reliability analysis of Airbus A-330 computer flight management system

    OpenAIRE

    Fajmut, Metod

    2010-01-01

    Diploma thesis deals with digitized, computerized flight control system »Fly-by-wire« and security aspects of the computer system of an aircraft Airbus A330. As for space and military aircraft structures is also in commercial airplanes, much of the financial contribution devoted to reliability. Conventional aircraft control systems have, and some are still, to rely on mechanical and hydraulic connections between the controls on aircraft operated by the pilot and control surfaces. But newer a...

  12. Risk management in a humanitarian context - how can the application of risk management activities to initial registration in Dadaab increase societal safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Nodland, Jeanneth

    2011-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management and societal safety The aim of this thesis is to establish the relationship between initial registration and societal safety, to make the reader aware of how the UNHCR in Dadaab is conducting initial registration, and to show that the application of risk management activities on camp management activities can increase the reliability of an operation. The thesis will show that the identification of vulnerabilities embedded within a system, and implementing...

  13. The total theory about risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, Shunsuke

    2003-01-01

    A general working procedure of risk management, some example of other countries, topics and problems in the future are described. A definition of risk, risk assessment, risk management process, setting of aim and definite policy are explained. As a fundamental way of thinking, risk is controlled by ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable). The upper and lower limit of risk level is called as Quantitative Safety Goal and Target Level of Safety, respectively. These limits in the atomic power and airplane are decided. Evaluation of risk, countermeasure and practice are explained. For example, a permissible range of risk and practical use in England, U.S.A, Holland and Japan are stated. Recently, accountability risk, missing demand risk and control risk are important. (S.Y.)

  14. [Evaluation of Suicide Risk Levels in Hospitals: Validity and Reliability Tests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macagnino, Sandro; Steinert, Tilman; Uhlmann, Carmen

    2018-05-01

    Examination of in-hospital suicide risk levels concerning their validity and their reliability. The internal suicide risk levels were evaluated in a cross sectional study of in 163 inpatients. A reliability check was performed via determining interrater-reliability of senior physician, therapist and the responsible nurse. Within the scope of the validity check, we conducted analyses of criterion validity and construct validity. For the total sample an "acceptable" to "good" interrater-reliability (Kendalls W = .77) of suicide risk levels were obtained. Schizophrenic disorders showed the lowest values, for personality disorders we found the highest level of interrater-reliability. When examining the criterion validity, Item-9 of the BDI-II is substantial correlated to our suicide risk levels (ρ m  = .54, p validity check, affective disorders showed the highest correlation (ρ = .77), compatible also with "convergent validity". They differed with schizophrenic disorders which showed the least concordance (ρ = .43). In-hospital suicide risk levels may represent an important contribution to the assessment of suicidal behavior of inpatients experiencing psychiatric treatment due to their overall good validity and reliability. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. Future Trends in Reliability-Based Bridge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Future bridge management systems will be based on simple stochastic models predicting the residual strength of structural elements. The current deterministic management systems are not effective in optimizing e.g. the life cycle cost of a bridge or a system of bridges. A number of important factors...

  16. Risk management method for small photovoltaic plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirova Milena

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is necessary for achieving the goals of the organization. There are many methods, approaches, and instruments in the literature concerning risk management. However, these are often highly specialized and transferring them to a different field can prove difficult. Therefore, managers often face situations where they have no tools to use for risk management. This is the case with small photovoltaic plants (according to a definition by the Bulgarian State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission small applies to systems with a total installed power of 200 kWp. There are some good practices in the energy field for minimizing risks, but they offer only partial risk prevention and are not sufficient. Therefore a new risk management method needs to be introduced. Small photovoltaic plants offer plenty of advantages in comparison to the other renewable energy sources which makes risk management in their case more important. There is no classification of risks for the exploitation of small photovoltaic systems in the available literature as well as to what degree the damages from those risks could spread. This makes risk analysis and evaluation necessary for obtaining information which could aid taking decisions for improving risk management. The owner of the invested capital takes a decision regarding the degree of acceptable risk for his organization and it must be protected depending on the goals set. Investors in small photovoltaic systems need to decide to what degree the existing risks can influence the goals previously set, the payback of the investment, and what is the acceptable level of damages for the investor. The purpose of this work is to present a risk management method, which currently does not exist in the Bulgaria, so that the risks and the damages that could occur during the exploitation of small photovoltaic plants could be identified and the investment in such technology – justified.

  17. A Risk Radar driven by Internet of intelligences serving for emergency management in community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chongfu; Wu, Tong; Renn, Ortwin

    2016-07-01

    Today, most of the commercial risk radars only have the function to show risks, as same as a set of risk matrixes. In this paper, we develop the Internet of intelligences (IOI) to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. An IOI scans risks in a community by 4 stages: collecting information and experience about risks; evaluating risk incidents; verifying; and showing risks. Employing the information diffusion method, we optimized to deal with the effective information for calculating risk value. Also, a specific case demonstrates the reliability and practicability of risk radar. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Role of NDT in risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, Jr. James F.

    2009-01-01

    Risk management is identifying and then managing threats that could severely affect or bring down a company. This involves reviewing the operations of the company to include the process, equipment, procedures and personnel. Potential threats are then identified including their probability of occurrence, and then taking appropriate actions to address the most likely threats. Traditionally, risk management was thought of as mostly getting the right insurance. However, this impression of risk management has changed dramatically. With the recent increase in rules and regulations and optimizing utilization of key resources, risk management is becoming a management practice that is as important as financial or facilities management. In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss and greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process can be very difficult, and balancing between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. (author)

  19. Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikami, D

    1997-10-01

    Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits in integrated health systems is explained. A managed care organization should assume financial risk for pharmacy benefits only if it can manage the risk. Horizontally integrated organizations often do not have much control over the management of drug utilization and costs. Vertically integrated organizations have the greatest ability to manage pharmacy financial risk; virtual integration may also be compatible. Contracts can be established in which the provider is incentivized or placed at partial or full risk. The main concerns that health plans have with respect to pharmacy capitation are formulary management and the question of who should receive rebates from manufacturers. The components needed to managed pharmacy financial risk depend on the type of contract negotiated. Health-system pharmacists are uniquely positioned to take advantage of opportunities opening up through pharmacy risk contracting. Functions most organizations must provide when assuming pharmacy financial risk can be divided into internal and external categories. Internally performed functions include formulary management, clinical pharmacy services and utilization management, and utilization reports for physicians. Functions that can be outsourced include claims processing and administration, provider- and customer support services, and rebates. Organizations that integrate the pharmacy benefit across the health care continuum will be more effective in controlling costs and improving outcomes than organizations that handle this benefit as separate from others. Patient care should not focus on payment mechanisms and unit costs but on developing superior processes and systems that improve health care.

  20. Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The assumption that large complex projects should be managed in order to reduce uncertainty and increase predictability is not new. What is relatively new, however, is that uncertainty reduction can and should be obtained through formal risk management approaches. We question both assumptions...... by addressing a more fundamental question about the role of knowledge in current risk management practices. Inquiries into the predominant approaches to risk management in large infrastructure and construction projects reveal their assumptions about knowledge and we discuss the ramifications these have...... for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...

  1. Risk management in a competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, it is necessary and important to develop an appropriate risk management scheme for trade with full utilization of the multi-market environment in order to maximize participants' benefits and minimize the corresponding risks. Based on the analyses to trading environments and risks in the electricity market, a layered framework of risk management for electric energy trading is proposed in this paper. Simulation results confirmed that trading among multiple markets is helpful to reduce the complete risk, and VaR provides a useful approach to judge whether the formed risk-control scheme is acceptable. (author)

  2. INVENTORY AND RISK MANAGEMENT: DECREASING DELIVERY RISK OF PURCHASERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz MICHALSKI

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic financial purpose of an enterprise is maximization of its value. Inventory management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. The enterprise value maximization strategy is executed with a focus on risk and uncertainty. This article presents the consequences for the recipients firm that can result from operating risk that is related to delivery risk generated by the suppliers. The present article offers a method that uses portfolio management theory to choose the suppliers.

  3. Data Management in Metagenomics: A Risk Management Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Ferreira

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In eScience, where vast data collections are processed in scientific workflows, new risks and challenges are emerging. Those challenges are changing the eScience paradigm, mainly regarding digital preservation and scientific workflows. To address specific concerns with data management in these scenarios, the concept of the Data Management Plan was established, serving as a tool for enabling digital preservation in eScience research projects. We claim risk management can be jointly used with a Data Management Plan, so new risks and challenges can be easily tackled. Therefore, we propose an analysis process for eScience projects using a Data Management Plan and ISO 31000 in order to create a Risk Management Plan that can complement the Data Management Plan. The motivation, requirements and validation of this proposal are explored in the MetaGen-FRAME project, focused in Metagenomics.

  4. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, P A; Geraci, C L; Hodson, L L; Zumwalde, R D; Kuempel, E D; Murashov, V; Martinez, K F; Heidel, D S

    2013-01-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  5. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

    2013-04-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  6. Developments in Levee Reliability and Flood Risk Analysis in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents and overview of advances in flood risk and levee reliability analysis in the Netherlands. It is described how new safety standards – in the form of a target failure probability – have been derived on the basis of nationwide flood risk assessments which taken into account both

  7. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  8. Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Solojentsev, E D

    2005-01-01

    In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE are described too. Audience This volume is intended for experts and scientists in the area of the risk in business and engineering, in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness, and post-graduates in those subject areas.

  9. Managing the total cost of risk exposures through risk mapping techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unione, A.J.; Rode, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    In a competitive power market, power producers are exposed to an increasingly broad spectrum of financial risks. The cumulative impact of these financial risks is known collectively as the Total of Cost of Risk. The concept of Total of Cost of Risk presents the business reality of a company's exposure to potentially devastating financial consequences in an integrated and useful way. In this way, a strategy of managing Total Cost of Risk in the most cost effective way can become a means of ensuring long term business health and security. This paper will examine the use of risk mapping as a tool for visually understanding Total Cost of Risk, thus creating an enhanced situational awareness and an integrated basis for risk management decision. The evaluation process, available through the use of risk maps allows the power producers to pro-actively implement prudent business decisions concerning the design, operation and maintenance of power plants. Risk mapping is thus a means for harmonizing operational objectives, such as improved plant reliability, with corporate strategies and goals in terms of an effective risk management program

  10. Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

  11. Optimized work control process to improve safety and reliability in a risk-based and deregulated environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, Jon G.; Jeffries, Jeffrey D. E.; Mairs, Todd P.; Rahn, Frank J.

    1999-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of strategic models to assist power generating plants to improve their work control processes. These models include mechanisms to continually keep the process up to date. Included in the work control process are elements for system cost/performance analysis, life-cycle maintenance planning, on-line scheduling and look-ahead techniques, and schedule implementation to conduct work on the asset. The paper also discusses how risk management associated with work control issues that effect the safety and reliability, as well as O and M costs, is integrated into this strategy. The work control process is a pervasive and critical element in the successful implementation of operations and work management programs. While providing a method to implement maintenance activities in a cost-effective manner, the work control process improves plant safety and system reliability

  12. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), Version 2.5: Reference manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1991-03-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.5 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 2.5 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 7 refs., 348 figs

  13. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) Version 2.0 user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1990-06-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Also provided in the system is an integrated full-screen editor for use when interfacing with remote mainframe computer systems. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.0 and is the subject of this user's guide. Version 2.0 of IRRAS provides all of the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 9 refs., 292 figs., 4 tabs

  14. [Does clinical risk management require a structured conflict management?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.

  15. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  16. Investigating the value of time and value of reliability for managed lanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This report presents a comprehensive study in Value of Time (VOT) and Value of Reliability (VOR) analysis in : the context of managed lane (ML) facilities. Combined Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) : data were used to understand tr...

  17. Incorporating travel-time reliability into the congestion management process : a primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This primer explains the value of incorporating travel-time reliability into the Congestion Management Process (CMP) : and identifies the most current tools available to assist with this effort. It draws from applied research and best practices : fro...

  18. IRRAS, Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System for PC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.

    1995-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: IRRAS4.16 is a program developed for the purpose of performing those functions necessary to create and analyze a complete Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This program includes functions to allow the user to create event trees and fault trees, to define accident sequences and basic event failure data, to solve system and accident sequence fault trees, to quantify cut sets, and to perform uncertainty analysis on the results. Also included in this program are features to allow the analyst to generate reports and displays that can be used to document the results of an analysis. Since this software is a very detailed technical tool, the user of this program should be familiar with PRA concepts and the methods used to perform these analyses. 2 - Method of solution: IRRAS4.16 is written entirely in MODULA-2 and uses an integrated commercial graphics package to interactively construct and edit fault trees. The fault tree solving methods used are industry recognized top down algorithms. For quantification, the program uses standard methods to propagate the failure information through the generated cut sets. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Due to the complexity of and the variety of ways a fault tree can be defined it is difficult to define limits on the complexity of the problem solved by this software. It is, however, capable of solving a substantial fault tree due to efficient methods. At this time, the software can efficiently solve problems as large as other software currently used on mainframe computers. Does not include source code

  19. Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, Long Phi; Biesbroek, Robbert; Tri, Van Pham Dang; Kummu, Matti; Vliet, van Michelle T.H.; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta—a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management.

  20. Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

    2007-01-01

    Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

  1. Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability criteria for the evaluation of Human Health Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, C. M.; Silliman, S. E.; Bolster, D.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of water quality on the health of a general population is challenging due high degrees of uncertainty and variability in hydrological, toxicological and human aspects of the system. Assessment of the impact of changes in water quality of a public water supply is critical to management of that water supply. We propose the use of three different system evaluation criteria: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) as a tool for assessing the impact of uncertainty in the arrival of contaminant mass through time with respect to human health risks on a variable population. These criteria were first introduced to the water resources community by Hashimoto et al (1982). Most simply one can understand these criteria as the following: Reliability is the likelihood of the system being in a state of success; Resilience is the probability that the system will return to a state of success at t+1 if it is in failure at time step t, and Vulnerability is the severity of failure, which here is defined as the maximum health risk. These concepts are applied to a theoretical example where the water quality at a water supply well varies over time: health impact is considered based on sliding, 30-year windows of exposure to water derived from the well. We apply the methodology, in terms of uncertainty in water quality deviations, to eight simulated breakthrough curves of a contaminant at the well: each curve represents equal mass of contaminant arriving at the well over a 70-year lifetime of the well, but different mass distributions over time. These curves are used to investigate the impact of uncertainty in the distribution through time of the contaminant mass at the well, as well as the initial arrival of the contaminant over the 70-year lifetime of the well. In addition to extending the health risk through time with uncertainty in mass distribution, we incorporate variability in the human population to examine the evolution of the three criteria within

  2. Large dams and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazelais, N.

    2003-01-01

    In July 1996, Quebec's Saguenay region was subjected to intensive rainfall which caused severe floods and uncontrolled release of several reservoirs, resulting in extensive damage to dam structures and reservoirs. The probability of occurrence for that disaster was 1:10,000. Following the disaster, the Quebec government established a dam management body entitled the Commission scientifique et technique sur la gestion des barrages, which pointed out several safety shortcomings of existing dams. Many were either very old or had undergone significant function change without being subsequently re-evaluated. A report by the Commission stated that damage following the floods could have been limited if the design and operating standards of the dams had been more stringent. A Dam Safety Act was adopted by the Quebec National Assembly on May 30, 2000 following recommendations to retain safer structures. The Act demands regular reporting of operating procedures. Seismic activity was noted as being a topic that requires in-depth examination since Quebec's St. Lawrence Valley, particularly the Charlevoix region, is one of Canada's largest seismic zones. The other is on the west coast in British Columbia. Earthquakes in Quebec are less intense than the ones in British Columbia, but they have higher frequency content which exerts a quasi-resonance wave effect which impacts roads, bridges, buildings and hydroelectric generating facilities. Hydro-Quebec is a public utility which owns 563 retaining structures, of which 228 are ranked as large dams that measure more than 15 metres high, 400 metres long and with a reservoir capacity of more than 1 million cubic metres of water. Hydro-Quebec addresses hydrological, seismic, technological and human risks through a dam safety procedure that includes structured plans for choosing best alternatives through staged exercises. Hazard levels are minimized through the adoption of emergency, prevention and alleviation measures. The utility

  3. Environmental asset management: Risk management systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naudé, Brian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available bnaude@csir.co.za Charl Petzer Council for Scientific and Industrial Research PO Box 395 Pretoria 0001 South Africa +2712 841 4292 CPetzer1@csir.co.za Copyright © 2017 by B Naudé, C Petzer. Published and used by INCOSE with permission.... Charl Petzer is registered professional engineer with 30 years of programme/project management as well as systems engineering experience in military and other environments. He has been the lead systems engineer, as well as programme manager on several...

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES IN SUPPLY CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Aleksić

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the keys of successful business last few years is effective dealing with risks in every meaning of that word. At the time when the world economic crisis largely limits business, successful Risk management is the only way of survival for a large number of business systems. This paper will present the processes of risk management in supply chains that are in accordance with the standards ISO 28000 and ISO 31000. By implementing a holistic, enterprise-wide supply chain risk management program, companies also can uphold their commitment to providing strong corporate governance on behalf of stakeholders and increase their market value.

  5. An analytical model for computation of reliability of waste management facilities with intermediate storages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallweit, A.; Schumacher, F.

    1977-01-01

    A high reliability is called for waste management facilities within the fuel cycle of nuclear power stations which can be fulfilled by providing intermediate storage facilities and reserve capacities. In this report a model based on the theory of Markov processes is described which allows computation of reliability characteristics of waste management facilities containing intermediate storage facilities. The application of the model is demonstrated by an example. (orig.) [de

  6. Strategic Risk Management and Corporate Value Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Roggi, Oliviero

    Major corporate failures, periodic recessions, regional debt crises and volatile markets have intensified the focus on corporate risk management as the means to deal better with turbulent business conditions. Hence, the ability to respond effectively to the often dramatic environmental changes...... is considered an important source of competitive advantage. However, surprisingly little research has analyzed if the presumed advantages of effective risk management lead to superior performance or assessed important antecedents of effective risk management capabilities. Here we present a comprehensive study...... of risk management effectiveness and the relationship to corporate performance based on panel data for more than 3,400 firms accounting for over 33,500 annual observations during the turbulent period 1991-2010. Determining effective risk management as the ability to reduce earnings and cash flow...

  7. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Staveren, Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is

  8. How simulation of failure risk can improve structural reliability - application to pressurized components and pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Cioclov, Dimitru Dragos

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic methods for failure risk assessment are introduced, with reference to load carrying structures, such as pressure vessels (PV) and components of pipes systems. The definition of the failure risk associated with structural integrity is made in the context of the general approach to structural reliability. Sources of risk are summarily outlined with emphasis on variability and uncertainties (V&U) which might be encountered in the analysis. To highlight the problem, in its practical...

  9. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  10. 78 FR 4848 - Social Media: Consumer Compliance Risk Management Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-23

    ...: Consumer Compliance Risk Management Guidance AGENCY: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council... Media: Consumer Compliance Risk Management Guidance'' (guidance). Upon completion of the guidance, and... management practices adequately address the consumer compliance and legal risks, as well as related risks...

  11. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  12. Internal audit risk management in metropolitan municipalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christo Ackermann

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Internal audit functions (IAFs of organisations are regarded as crucial components of the combined assurance model, alongside the audit committee, management and external auditors. The combined assurance model aims at having integrated and aligned assurance in organisations with the overall aim of maximising risk and governance oversight and control efficiencies. In this regard, internal audit plays a crucial role, insofar as it consists of experts in risk, governance and control consultancy who provide assurance to senior management and the audit committee. Audit committees are dependent on internal audit for information and their effectiveness revolves around a strong and well-resourced internal audit function which is able to aid audit committees to meet their oversight responsibilities. There is thus a growing demand for managing risk through the process of risk management and internal audit is in a perfect position to assist with the improvement of such processes. If internal auditors wish to continue being an important aspect of the combined assurance model, they need to address the critical area, amongst others, of risk management as part of their work. If not, it follows that the board, audit committees and other levels of management will remain uninformed on the status of these matters which, in turn, will negatively impact the ability of these stakeholders to discharge their responsibilities. This study therefore focuses on analysing the functioning of IAFs, with specific reference to their risk management mandate. The study followed a mixed method approach to describe internal audits risk management functioning in the big eight metropolitan municipalities in South Africa. The results show that internal audit provide a broad scope of risk management work which assist senior management in the discharge of their responsibilities. However, in the public eye, internal audits risk management functioning is scant

  13. Optimized load sharing control by means of thermal reliability management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nesgaard, Carsten; Andersen, Michael Andreas E.

    2004-01-01

    time and system cost. However, due to non-ideal parts each converter unit deviates from the ideal case, which makes a power system comprised of parallel-connected converters a rather poor performing system. To account for the non-ideal parts some form of load sharing is needed, whereby it is ensured......With new applications for high-current low-output voltage power systems emerging nearly every day the need for new and cost-efficient power system designs is a matter of course. As output voltage levels continue to decrease an approach that seems more and more attractive is the implementation...... that each converter in the configuration delivers its share of the total output power. In other words parallel-operation of multiple converters is employed when specifications require a highly reliable system, designable within a very short time frame and at low costs. However, to make full use...

  14. Decisionmaking under risk in invasive species management: risk management theory and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shefali V. Mehta; Robert G. Haight; Frances R. Homans

    2010-01-01

    Invasive species management is closely entwined with the assessment and management of risk that arises from the inherently random nature of the invasion process. The theory and application of risk management for invasive species with an economic perspective is reviewed in this synthesis. Invasive species management can be delineated into three general categories:...

  15. Examining the realities of risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    Sufficient experience now exists, especially in the nuclear industry, to consider the progress that has been made toward meaningful tools or aids for the control and, hence, management of risk. The considerable activity in the field of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) suggests a high level of interest and application. It is the purpose of this paper to examine our own experience in this regard and to offer some observations and opinions about current practices in risk management and the requirements for success

  16. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  17. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  18. Risk Management Practices of Multinational and indigenous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Construction projects' high uncertainty rates make them unattractive to non-risk takers. Construction companies are therefore necessarily risk takers, albeit, to varying degrees. This study made an inquiry into the risk management (RM) practices of multinational and indigenous construction companies (MCCs and ICCs, ...

  19. RISKS MANAGEMENT. A PROPENSITY SCORE APPLICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  20. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  1. 76 FR 10583 - Priorities for Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk-Power System; Notice Establishing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-25

    ... Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk- Power System; Notice Establishing Date for Comments On... regarding priorities for addressing risks to the reliability of the Bulk-Power System, as previously... Bulk-Power System, 76 FR 2369 (January 13, 2011), as supplemented by the Reliability Technical...

  2. 76 FR 2369 - Priorities for Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk-Power System; Notice of Technical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-13

    ... Addressing Risks to the Reliability of the Bulk- Power System; Notice of Technical Conference December 16.... The purpose of the conference is to discuss policy issues related to reliability of the Bulk-Power System, including priorities for addressing risks to reliability. The agenda for this conference will be...

  3. A reliable information management for real-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishihara, Takuo; Tomita, Seiji

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a system configuration suitable for the hard realtime systems in which integrity and durability of information are important. On most hard real-time systems, where response time constraints are critical, the data which program access are volatile, and may be lost in case the systems are down. But for some real-time systems, the value-added intelligent network (IN) systems, e.g., integrity and durability of the stored data are very important. We propose a distributed system configuration for such hard real-time systems, comprised of service control modules and data management modules. The service control modules process transactions and responses based on deadline control, and the data management modules deal the stored data based on information recovery schemes well-restablished in fault real-time systems. (author)

  4. Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; El-Bassioni, A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed

  5. Reliability of risk assessment measures used in sexually violent predator proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Cailey S; Kimonis, Eva R; Otto, Randy K; Kline, Suzonne M; Wasserman, Adam L

    2012-12-01

    The field interrater reliability of three assessment tools frequently used by mental health professionals when evaluating sex offenders' risk for reoffending--the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) and the Static-99-was examined within the context of sexually violent predator program proceedings. Rater agreement was highest for the Static--99 (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC₁] = .78) and lowest for the PCL-R (ICC₁ = .60; MnSOST-R ICC₁ = .74), although all instruments demonstrated lower field reliability than that reported in their test manuals. Findings raise concerns about the reliability of risk assessment tools that are used to inform judgments of risk in high-stake sexually violent predator proceedings. Implications for future research and suggestions for improving evaluator training to increase accuracy when informing legal decision making are discussed.

  6. Risk Management and Risk Psychology in Romanian Sme’s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Dănciulescu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk is one of the biggest and most fascinating challenges of all times for humanity, because of its presence in all fields. Risk management as a component of modern management, has become a main concern for the modern world and one of the “key mechanisms” of economic development, a complex processn that includes a series of activities meant to alleviate the impact of risk over business and planed or foreseen results. This paper wants to bring to attention the importance of risks and their management in today’s economic crisis. The sector presented is the IT& C, especially software, because Romania had a growth in this area for a few years but beginning the crisis this segment in economy had known a serious decrease. This paper tries to connect risk management and risk psychology to Romanian economy, culture and mentality. The paper presents in short some of risk management characteristics, definitions and few opinions; why in Romania this subject is not treated with the appropriate attention. The paper at hand focuses on the psychology of risk and how it affects the life of individuals and the existence of companies, the importance it should have on day to day basis, especially in Romania

  7. Nuclear power plant risk assembly and decomposition for risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iden, D.C.

    1985-01-01

    The state-of-the-art method for analyzing the risk from nuclear power plants is probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The intermediate results of a PRA are first assembled to quantify the risk from operating a nuclear power plant in the form of (1) core damage (or core melt) frequency, (2) plant damage state frequencies, (3) release category frequencies, and (4) the frequency of exceeding specific levels of offsite consequences. Once the overall PRA results have been quantified, the next step is to decompose those results into the individual contributors to each of the four forms of risk in some rank order. The way in which the PRA model is set up to assemble and decompose the plant risk determines the ease and usefulness of the PRA model as a risk management tool for evaluating perturbations to the PRA model. These perturbations can take the form of technical specification changes, hardware modifications, procedural changes, etc. The matrix formalism developed by Dr. Stan Kaplan for risk assembly and decomposition represents a significant breakthrough in making the PRA model an effective risk management tool. The key to understanding the matrix formalism and making it a useful tool for managing nuclear power plant risk is the structure of the PRA model. PRA risk model structure and decomposition of the risk results are discussed with the Seabrook PRA as an example

  8. Relevance and reliability of experimental data in human health risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaltenhäuser, Johanna; Kneuer, Carsten; Marx-Stoelting, Philip; Niemann, Lars; Schubert, Jens; Stein, Bernd; Solecki, Roland

    2017-08-01

    Evaluation of data relevance, reliability and contribution to uncertainty is crucial in regulatory health risk assessment if robust conclusions are to be drawn. Whether a specific study is used as key study, as additional information or not accepted depends in part on the criteria according to which its relevance and reliability are judged. In addition to GLP-compliant regulatory studies following OECD Test Guidelines, data from peer-reviewed scientific literature have to be evaluated in regulatory risk assessment of pesticide active substances. Publications should be taken into account if they are of acceptable relevance and reliability. Their contribution to the overall weight of evidence is influenced by factors including test organism, study design and statistical methods, as well as test item identification, documentation and reporting of results. Various reports make recommendations for improving the quality of risk assessments and different criteria catalogues have been published to support evaluation of data relevance and reliability. Their intention was to guide transparent decision making on the integration of the respective information into the regulatory process. This article describes an approach to assess the relevance and reliability of experimental data from guideline-compliant studies as well as from non-guideline studies published in the scientific literature in the specific context of uncertainty and risk assessment of pesticides. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Management of natural gas supply reliability and modulation in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupas, D.

    1995-01-01

    France imports most of its gas, and demand for gas varies considerably between summer and winter. Faced with insufficient flexibility in its supply contracts to deal with the gas balance, Gaz de France decided to develop a policy based on combined and consistent use of a large-scale underground storage system, a suspendable clientele, and a rate policy to maintain the balance. It was the integrated character of the company that makes it possible to optimize the arrangement of these adjustment facilities. Most of the seasonal modulation is taken up by underground storage in water tables, and the peak cold complement comes from salt dome storage. Underground storage also contributes, as does the suspendable clientele, to supply reliability, with a specific quality due to their speed and versatility of use. The prime purpose of the suspendable clientele portfolio is rather to respond to supply failures, but the demand too, during periods of extreme cold, is reduced by curtailing deliveries whose contractual suspension notice time is short. (author). 3 figs

  10. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  11. The development of a nuclear chemical plant human reliability management approach: HRMS and JHEDI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirwan, Barry

    1997-01-01

    In the late 1980's, amidst the qualitative and quantitative validation of certain Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) techniques, there was a desire for a new technique specifically for a nuclear reprocessing plant being designed. The technique was to have the following attributes: it should be data-based rather than involving pure expert judgement; it was to be flexible, so that it would allow both relatively rapid screening and more detailed assessment; and it was to have sensitivity analysis possibilities, so that Human Factors design-related parameters, albeit at a gross level, could be brought into the risk assessment equation. The techniques and literature were surveyed, and it was decided that no one technique fulfilled these requirements, and so a new approach was developed. Two techniques were devised, the Human Reliability Management System (HRMS), and the Justification of Human Error Data Information (JHEDI) technique, the latter being essentially a quicker screening version of the former. Both techniques carry out task analysis, error analysis, and Performance Shaping Factor-based quantification, but JHEDI involves less detailed assessment than HRMS. Additionally, HRMS can be utilised to determine error reduction mechanisms, based on the way the Performance Shaping Factors are contributing to the assessed error probabilities. Both techniques are fully computerised and assessments are highly documentable and auditable, which was seen as a useful feature both by the company developing the techniques, and by the regulatory authorities assessing the final output risk assessments into which these two techniques fed data. This paper focuses in particular on the quantification process used by these techniques. The quantification approach for both techniques was principally one of extrapolation from real data to the desired Human Error Probability (HEP), based on a comparison between Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) profiles for the real, and the to

  12. [What Surgeons Should Know about Risk Management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strametz, R; Tannheimer, M; Rall, M

    2017-02-01

    Background: The fact that medical treatment is associated with errors has long been recognized. Based on the principle of "first do no harm", numerous efforts have since been made to prevent such errors or limit their impact. However, recent statistics show that these measures do not sufficiently prevent grave mistakes with serious consequences. Preventable mistakes such as wrong patient or wrong site surgery still frequently occur in error statistics. Methods: Based on insight from research on human error, in due consideration of recent legislative regulations in Germany, the authors give an overview of the clinical risk management tools needed to identify risks in surgery, analyse their causes, and determine adequate measures to manage those risks depending on their relevance. The use and limitations of critical incident reporting systems (CIRS), safety checklists and crisis resource management (CRM) are highlighted. Also the rationale for IT systems to support the risk management process is addressed. Results/Conclusion: No single tool of risk management can be effective as a standalone instrument, but unfolds its effect only when embedded in a superordinate risk management system, which integrates tailor-made elements to increase patient safety into the workflows of each organisation. Competence in choosing adequate tools, effective IT systems to support the risk management process as well as leadership and commitment to constructive handling of human error are crucial components to establish a safety culture in surgery. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  13. Quality Risk Management of Compliant Excipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Carlin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Raw material compliance and GMP do not eliminate variability. Quality by Design should minimize the risk that raw material variability will adversely affect the finished product Critical Quality Attributes. The sources of technological risk from excipients are reviewed and approaches to excipient risk management are discussed. Supplier involvement throughout the product life-cycle is recommended to minimize excipient-related risk.

  14. FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRADE BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ms. Tamara Ye. Kononenko

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper clarifies the concepts of «risk», «financial risk» in banking business, and considers the main problems of financial risk management in trade banks while financing borrowers. The authors single out the most relevant problems, and conduct the analysis of overdue payment in case of OJSC “Sberbank of Russia”. The authors also offer a number of measures to minimize financial risks in trade bank activities in modern conditions.

  15. Intermodal Supply Chain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Maslarić, Marinko; Brnjac, Nikolina; Bago, Drago

    2016-01-01

    Efficient and secure global supply chains contribute to the Improvement of the competitiveness of the products traded on international markets by reducing their costs and delivery time while increasing the reliability and security. Global supply chains are unthinkable without transport integration, which is usually accomplished through the form of intermodal transport systems. Intermodal transport systems are much more complex than the unimodal ones due to the number of stakeholders, included...

  16. Sustainable Risk Management in the Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Županović Ivo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of financial markets and negative consequences of the financial crisis resulted in negative connotations in the operation of many financial institutions, businesses and citizens and imposed the need to implement appropriate risk management measures in the banking sector. Evolution of the financial sector makes a lot of news in the field of risk management and particularly the modelling of market, credit and operational risk. The main methodology for risk management is the value-at-risk, which is used in practice with other techniques such as the capital- at-risk method in order to minimize business risks and achieve optimal results in the banking and, generally, financial operations. Accordingly, at all levels of governance in the banking sector, there are prudential policies in place governing the management of all types of financial and operational risks. Based on the abovementioned, the focus of the examination was on the above postulate, and prompt recognition, control and proper management of banking risks.

  17. The Strategic-Renovation Banks’ Risks Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeremeychuk Raisa A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at developing approaches to implementation of the strategic-renovation risk management. Essence of risk theories was researched, the concept of «risk» in the bank’s management system were analyzed. On the basis of a theoretical generalization of scientific literature and the carried out analysis of existing risk management strategies to ensure the security of banking business, the strategy of renovation management has been selected. Because bank risks are part of the economic risk system, they are complex in their nature. However, given the importance of bank risks, the interpretation of their essence is still a debating matter. In a certain number of cases, their essence is replaced by the cause of occurrence, that is, all the different circumstances, factors that lead to the losses. So today, banks are considering risks, in particular, not only as a source of possible losses, but also as an opportunity to generate additional profits. An algorithm for taking a strategic-renovation decision on the banks’ risks management system has been proposed.

  18. Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL

    2014-05-01

    The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and used as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system

  19. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  20. Risk management; Maitriser le risque

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magne, L

    1999-07-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  1. Managers facing the climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  2. Risk management and safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takano, K.

    2007-01-01

    Paper informs on the efforts to elaborate a feedback system for risk comprehensive evaluation and a system to improve structure safety foreseeing the possibility to control the latent risk, ensuring the qualitative evaluation of the safety level and improvement of safety culture in various branches of industry, first and foremost, in the electricity producing sector including the nuclear power industry [ru

  3. Credit risk management in the power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, D.

    2002-01-01

    Deregulation of the electric power industry has the potential to put power businesses at market risk particularly when the value of an asset or liability will change with market movements. Market risk gives rise to credit risk where a contract cannot be fulfilled. This presentation describes how credit risks can be identified and measured. Most practitioners use some variant of value-at-risk (VAR) technology for measuring market risk. Under this approach, risk is determined by the volatility implied by the market. Volatility of electricity prices and natural gas prices has increased significantly in Alberta in recent years. The consequence is an increase in both market and credit risk. The author described the difference between the two risks and their significance. An overview of credit risk management with derivatives, an over-the counter contract, was also presented. The author also discusses issue of protection buyers in the event of a failed contract. 9 figs

  4. Risk management in Swedish hedge funds

    OpenAIRE

    Fri, Samuel; Nilsson, Joakim

    2011-01-01

    Background: Risk management has always been a complex topic, especially when it comes to hedge funds. Since hedge funds are able to utilize many kinds of financial instruments it is difficult to find a risk management strategy that goes well with them. Not much research regarding the Swedish hedge fund industry and its risk management has been done; hence we find it an interesting topic to focus this thesis on. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to increase the knowledge of how Swedish he...

  5. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  6. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvehag, Karin

    2011-07-01

    Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

  7. Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

    2016-12-01

    Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  9. Bulk electric system reliability evaluation incorporating wind power and demand side management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dange

    correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

  10. Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmona, María; Mañez, María

    2016-04-01

    Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

  11. Practical Risk Management for the CIO

    CERN Document Server

    Scherling, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The growing complexity of today's interconnected systems has not only increased the need for improved information security, but also helped to move information from the IT backroom to the executive boardroom as a strategic asset. And, just like the tip of an iceberg is all you see until you run into it, the risks to your information are mostly invisible until disaster strikes. Detailing procedures that will help your team perform better risk assessments and aggregate results into more meaningful metrics, Practical Risk Management for the CIO approaches information risk management through impro

  12. Practical Methods for Information Security Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian AMANCEI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some directions to perform the risk man-agement for information security. The article follows to practical methods through question-naire that asses the internal control, and through evaluation based on existing controls as part of vulnerability assessment. The methods presented contains all the key elements that concurs in risk management, through the elements proposed for evaluation questionnaire, list of threats, resource classification and evaluation, correlation between risks and controls and residual risk computation.

  13. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

  14. The application of holistic risk management in the banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Chibayambuya

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The application of holistic risk management is fast becoming a standard measure of good governance in the business arena. What role can holistic risk management play in the management of risk in the financial services industry? The aim of this paper is to propose a holistic risk management framework for the management of risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: A comprehensive framework that covers the holistic view risk management is proposed/developed out of an extensive literature review. Findings: Given the deliberations of various frameworks, a holistic risk management is proposed. The proposed framework ensures that all components of risk management are taken into account when strategizing for risk management in general and holistic risk management in particular; thereby improving the management of risk in the banking industry. Implications: The article proposes a holistic approach to risk management which takes into account all the facets of risk management, e.g. analyzing, planning, strategy, communication, implementation, motivation, systems review and plan modification. This holistic approach, when implemented in the banking industry, can have a significant impact on the improved management of risk. Originality/Value: The new proposed holistic risk management framework offers a fresh perspective of strategizing for risk management in terms of risk analysis, risk planning, risk strategy, risk communication, risk implementation, risk motivation, risk review and risk plan modification.

  15. Risk and Reliability of Infrastructure Asset Management Workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2006-01-01

    A workshop was held August 15-18 in Alexandria, Virginia to begin the dialog on the methodologies available and the status of how the US Army Corps of Engineers assesses its Civil Works infrastructure...

  16. Reliability of Instruments Measuring At-Risk and Problem Gambling Among Young Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edgren, Robert; Castrén, Sari; Mäkelä, Marjukka

    2016-01-01

    This review aims to clarify which instruments measuring at-risk and problem gambling (ARPG) among youth are reliable and valid in light of reported estimates of internal consistency, classification accuracy, and psychometric properties. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, and Psyc......Info covering the years 2009–2015. In total, 50 original research articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria: target age under 29 years, using an instrument designed for youth, and reporting a reliability estimate. Articles were evaluated with the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool....... Reliability estimates were reported for five ARPG instruments. Most studies (66%) evaluated the South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised for Adolescents. The Gambling Addictive Behavior Scale for Adolescents was the only novel instrument. In general, the evaluation of instrument reliability was superficial. Despite...

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Soava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

  18. Risk Management Considerations for Interoperable Acquisition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meyers, B. C

    2006-01-01

    .... The state of risk management practice -- the specification of standards and the methodologies to implement them -- is addressed and examined with respect to the needs of system-of-systems interoperability...

  19. Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. ... ketoacidosis is the most common hyperglycaemic emergency in patients with diabetes mellitus, especially type 1 diabetes.

  20. Managing flood risk through collaborative governance | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2013-05-21

    May 21, 2013 ... Managing flood risk through collaborative governance ... This article profiles a project supported by IDRC's Climate Change and Water program, ... and in the intensity of extreme weather events are resulting in the erosion of lo.

  1. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  2. Managing risks in the project pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This research focuses on how to manage the risks of project costs and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, and identifies significant : process improvements to ensure projects are delivered on time and as intended, thus maximizing the miles pave...

  3. Small Business and the Risk Management Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    This factsheet helps small businesses comply with the regulation requiring companies that use regulated substances, hazardous chemical such as ammonia and chlorine, to develop a risk management plan, to help prevent accidental toxic or flammable releases.

  4. Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

  5. From CSR to Social Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taarup Esbensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    When it comes to social risks multinational companies (MNC) within Mining are one of the most exposed businesses one can imagine. This paper examines how social risk management is practiced through the case of Teghout copper-molybdenum mine in North- Eastern Armenia, supplemented with evidence from...... other mining MNCs in the country, onsite fieldwork, interviews with key stakeholders, and public available information. This evidence suggest that a standards based social risk management strategy is adopted and that this strategy is based on international Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) standards...... engagement management systems that is promoted through the standard. The implemented social risk management systems are ineffective because they makes the MNC unable to recognise the value of weak ties and fail to build legitimacy and trust with some of the key stakeholders resulting in the creation of more...

  6. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

    2014-12-01

    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  7. Study on the Management for the Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance and Equipment Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Kyeongseop; Lee, Sangheon; Kim, Myungjin; Lee, Unjang

    2015-01-01

    In our country, many studies on the regulatory policy of the plant maintenance have ever been performed since 1998, but the relevant regulatory requirements were not established yet. These background mentioned above request us to study on the regulation policy and maintenance plan to improve the safety, reliability and efficiency of NPP. To solve these problems, in this study, we deduct the management methodology for the improvement of NPP maintenance and equipment reliability that is essential to secure the safety and efficiency of the commercial NPP. For analysis the maintenance and equipment reliability management methodology in overseas NPP. We studied maintenance and equipment reliability of USA, Canada and Europe(France, England, German). We also studied status and application condition of Korean NPP maintenance management technical development. We deducted an effective maintenance methodology that is needed to Korean NPP, as a result of comparison on the technical trend of the maintenance management between overseas and Korean, such like following. - Regulation form ·Specific provision of regulation requirement and application of form that is clarifying application standard - Maintenance management methodology, Maintenance management program. This results of study could be applied for regulation policy, law and guideline establishment of NPP maintenance, operation, supervision and a system establishment for maintenance management, education data about maintenance for NPP employees

  8. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling.   Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques.   This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergra...

  9. Decision support for utility environmental risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

  10. Radiation risk management at DOE accelerator facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyck, O.B. van.

    1997-01-01

    The DOE accelerator contractors have been discussing among themselves and with the Department how to improve radiation safety risk management. This activity-how to assure prevention of unplanned high exposures-is separate from normal exposure management, which historically has been quite successful. The ad-hoc Committee on the Accelerator Safety Order and Guidance [CASOG], formed by the Accelerator Section of the HPS, has proposed a risk- based approach, which will be discussed. Concepts involved are risk quantification and comparison (including with non-radiation risk), passive and active (reacting) protection systems, and probabilistic analysis. Different models of risk management will be presented, and the changing regulatory environment will also be discussed

  11. From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

    2006-01-01

    Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

  12. Plant risk status information management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.J.; Ellison, B.C.; Glynn, J.C.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1985-01-01

    The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIMS) is a PC program that presents information about a nuclear power plant's design, its operation, its technical specifications, and the results of the plant's probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in a logically and easily accessible format. PRISIMS provides its user with unique information for integrating safety concerns into day-to-day operational decisions and/or long-range management planning

  13. Delegated Portfolio Management and Risk Taking Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    José Luiz Barros Fernandes; Juan Ignacio Peña; Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2009-01-01

    Standard models of moral hazard predict a negative relationship between risk and incentives; however empirical studies on mutual funds present mixed results. In this paper, we propose a behavioral principal-agent model in the context of professional managers, focusing on active and passive investment strategies. Using this general framework, we evaluate how incentives affect the risk taking behavior of managers, using the standard moral hazard model as a special case; and solve the previous c...

  14. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  15. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  16. The reliability of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model in a geriatric hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinze, Cornelia; Halfens, Ruud; Dassen, Theo

    2008-12-01

    Aims and objectives.  The purpose of this study was to test the interrater reliability of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model, an instrument to identify patients in a hospital setting with a high risk of falling. Background.  Falls are a serious problem in older patients. Valid and reliable fall risk assessment tools are required to identify high-risk patients and to take adequate preventive measures. Methods.  Seventy older patients were independently and simultaneously assessed by six pairs of raters made up of nursing staff members. Consensus estimates were calculated using simple percentage agreement and consistency estimates using Spearman's rho and intra class coefficient. Results.  Percentage agreement ranged from 0.70 to 0.92 between the six pairs of raters. Spearman's rho coefficients were between 0.54 and 0.80 and the intra class coefficients were between 0.46 and 0.92. Conclusions.  Whereas some pairs of raters obtained considerable interobserver agreement and internal consistency, the others did not. Therefore, it is concluded that the Hendrich Fall Risk Model is not a reliable instrument. The use of more unambiguous operationalized items is preferred. Relevance to clinical practice.  In practice, well operationalized fall risk assessment tools are necessary. Observer agreement should always be investigated after introducing a standardized measurement tool. © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Risk management - unappreciated instrument of supply chain management strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Wojciech Machowiak

    2012-01-01

    Background: Unlike Enterprise Risk Management, which is certainly quite well rooted in business practice, Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) still continues to be dynamically developing subject of academic research, whereas its practical applications are rather scarce. Material and methods: On the basis of broad review of the current state of the art in world literature, significant  relevancies to the core processes and enterprise strategy are discussed.   Results: ...

  18. Reliability and risk-based planning of operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Florian, Mihai; Berzonskis, Arvydas

    2016-01-01

    costly (and safe), and it is important to include in the reliability assessment the information obtained during operation (from condition monitoring and inspections) and the maintenance performed (incl. repairs and replacements). The paper presents a risk-based approach for optimal planning of Operation...

  19. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and risk-based approach is presented where a life-cycle approach...

  20. A Quantitative Risk Analysis Framework for Evaluating and Monitoring Operational Reliability of Cloud Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Muhammad Faysal

    2013-01-01

    Cloud computing offers the advantage of on-demand, reliable and cost efficient computing solutions without the capital investment and management resources to build and maintain in-house data centers and network infrastructures. Scalability of cloud solutions enable consumers to upgrade or downsize their services as needed. In a cloud environment,…

  1. Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

  2. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  3. Reliability Based Spare Parts Management Using Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Upadhyay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Effective and efficient inventory management is the key to the economic sustainability of capital intensive modern industries. Inventory grows exponentially with complexity and size of the equipment fleet. Substantial amount of capital is required for maintaining an inventory and therefore its optimization is beneficial for smooth operation of the project at minimum cost of inventory. The size and hence the cost of the inventory is influenced by a large no of factors. This makes the optimization problem complex. This work presents a model to solve the problem of optimization of spare parts inventory. The novelty of this study lies with the fact that the developed method could tackle not only the artificial test case but also a real-world industrial problem. Various investigators developed several methods and semi-analytical tools for obtaining optimum solutions for this problem. In this study non-traditional optimization tool namely genetic algorithms GA are utilized. Apart from this Coxs regression analysis is also used to incorporate the effect of some environmental factors on the demand of spares. It shows the efficacy of the applicability of non-traditional optimization tool like GA to solve these problems. This research illustrates the proposed model with the analysis of data taken from a fleet of dumper operated in a large surface coal mine. The optimum time schedules so suggested by this GA-based model are found to be cost effective. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted for this industrial problem. Objective function is developed and the factors like the effect of season and production pressure overloading towards financial year-ending is included in the equations. Statistical analysis of the collected operational and performance data were carried out with the help of Easy-Fit Ver-5.5.The analysis gives the shape and scale parameter of theoretical Weibull distribution. The Coxs regression coefficient corresponding to excessive loading

  4. Risk management and oil trading contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sas, B.

    1992-01-01

    The oil market provides an excellent case study for an analysis of the commodity trading risks and the development of contractual instruments and market structures to meet these risks. The paper identifies the main risks, namely performance, credit/payment, price, regulatory, fiscal, and ''trading'' risk. A conceptual framework provides the basis to trace the evolution of the risk management instruments from relational (e.g. long-term), through ''transactional'' (e.g. spot and forwards) to ''institutional'' (e.g. futures and options) and finally ''pricing'' (e.g. swaps and trigger pricing) contracts. (author)

  5. The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorny, Frank M.

    2004-01-01

    As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics

  6. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neilson, G.H.; Gruber, C.O.; Harris, Jeffrey H.; Rej, D.J.; Simmons, R.T.; Strykowsky, R.L.

    2010-01-01

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and subassemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, which was established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-2008. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks were ultimately unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  7. Risk management, derivatives and shariah compliance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath

    2013-04-01

    Despite the impressive growth of Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF), a number of weaknesses remain. The most important of this is perhaps the lack of shariah compliant risk management tools. While the risk sharing philosophy of Islamic Finance requires the acceptance of risk to justify returns, the shariah also requires adherents to avoid unnecessary risk-maysir. The requirement to avoid maysir is in essence a call for the prudent management of risk. Contemporary risk management revolves around financial engineering, the building blocks of which are financial derivatives. Despite the proven efficacy of derivatives in the management of risk in the conventional space, shariah scholars appear to be suspicious and uneasy with their use in IBF. Some have imposed outright prohibition of their use. This paper re-examines the issue of contemporary derivative instruments and shariah compliance. The shariah compatibility of derivatives is shown in a number of ways. First, by way of qualitative evaluation of whether derivatives can be made to comply with the key prohibitions of the sharia. Second, by way of comparing the payoff profiles of derivatives with risk sharing finance and Bai Salam contracts. Finally, the equivalence between shariah compliant derivatives like the IPRS and Islamic FX Currency Forwards with conventional ones is presented.

  8. Board of directors and risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Elst, C.F.; Birkmose, H.; Neville, M.; Sorensen, K.

    2013-01-01

    The board of directors is responsible for an appropriate business risk management environment. The paper studies in a comparative way how legislators and courts fill this duty. We question whether the legislative and regulatory framework will improve the equilibrium between entrepreneurship and risk

  9. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neilson, G.H.; Gruber, C.O.; Harris, J.H.; Rej, D.J.; Simmons, R.T.; Strykowsky, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project

  10. Managing Risk Areas in Software Development Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, John Stouby; Schlichter, Bjarne Rerup

    2015-01-01

    Software companies are increasingly offshoring development to countries with high expertise at lower cost. Offshoring involves particular risk areas that if ignored increase the likelihood of failure. However, the offshoring client’s maturity level may influence the management of these risk areas...

  11. Self-management of vascular risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sol-de Rijk, B.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary The aim of this thesis was to provide insight into the potential of a self-management approach in treatment of vascular risk factors and to develop a self-management intervention. Furthermore to examine if this intervention, based on self-efficacy promoting theory, is effective in reducing

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. Interplanetary Supply Chain Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galluzzi, Michael C.

    2018-01-01

    Emphasis on KSC ground processing operations, reduced spares up-mass lift requirements and campaign-level flexible path perspective for space systems support as Regolith-based ISM is achieved by; Network modeling for sequencing space logistics and in-space logistics nodal positioning to include feedstock. Economic modeling to assess ISM 3D printing adaption and supply chain risk.

  14. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  15. DJ-1 is a reliable serum biomarker for discriminating high-risk endometrial cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Cello, Annalisa; Di Sanzo, Maddalena; Perrone, Francesca Marta; Santamaria, Gianluca; Rania, Erika; Angotti, Elvira; Venturella, Roberta; Mancuso, Serafina; Zullo, Fulvio; Cuda, Giovanni; Costanzo, Francesco

    2017-06-01

    New reliable approaches to stratify patients with endometrial cancer into risk categories are highly needed. We have recently demonstrated that DJ-1 is overexpressed in endometrial cancer, showing significantly higher levels both in serum and tissue of patients with high-risk endometrial cancer compared with low-risk endometrial cancer. In this experimental study, we further extended our observation, evaluating the role of DJ-1 as an accurate serum biomarker for high-risk endometrial cancer. A total of 101 endometrial cancer patients and 44 healthy subjects were prospectively recruited. DJ-1 serum levels were evaluated comparing cases and controls and, among endometrial cancer patients, between high- and low-risk patients. The results demonstrate that DJ-1 levels are significantly higher in cases versus controls and in high- versus low-risk patients. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis shows that DJ-1 has a very good diagnostic accuracy in discriminating endometrial cancer patients versus controls and an excellent accuracy in distinguishing, among endometrial cancer patients, low- from high-risk cases. DJ-1 sensitivity and specificity are the highest when high- and low-risk patients are compared, reaching the value of 95% and 99%, respectively. Moreover, DJ-1 serum levels seem to be correlated with worsening of the endometrial cancer grade and histotype, making it a reliable tool in the preoperative decision-making process.

  16. Managing sovereign credit risk in bond portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Bruder, Benjamin; Hereil, Pierre; Roncalli, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    With the recent development of the European debt crisis, traditional index bond management has been severely called into question. We focus here on the risk issues raised by the classical market-capitalization weighting scheme. We propose an approach to properly measure sovereign credit risk in a fixed-income portfolio. For that, we assume that CDS spreads follow a SABR process and we derive a sovereign credit risk measure based on CDS spreads and duration of portfolio bonds. We then consider...

  17. Loss Database Architecture for Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    RIOS DIAZ FRANCISCO; MARIN FERRER MONTSERRAT

    2018-01-01

    The reformed Union civil protection legislation (Decision on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism), which entered into force on 1 January 2014, is paving the way for more resilient communities by including key actions related to disaster prevention such as developing national risk assessments and the refinement of risk management planning. Under the Decision, Member States agreed to “develop risk assessments at national or appropriate sub- national level and make available to the Commission a s...

  18. Management Risk Reporting Practices and their determinants

    OpenAIRE

    VANDEMAELE, Sigrid; VERGAUWEN, Philip; MICHIELS, Anneleen

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the need for effective risk management, internal control and transparent risk reporting has become an important corporate governance principle and a predominant issue in business. Already in 1987, the AICPA[ ] report stated that shareholders are increasingly demanding that financial statements include more information concerning the risks and uncertainties companies are facing (Schrand and Elliott, 1998). Abraham and Cox (2007) claim that this information can help investors t...

  19. Credit Risk Management in Chinese Banking Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Lei

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Credit risk is by far the most important risk faced by banks, and it influences the bank profitability and its long-term operation significantly. Well management on credit risk can be a competitive advantage for banks in the competitive banking industry. Chinese banks suffer from serious financial fragility manifested by high proportions of NPLs and low capital adequacy ratios (Bonin and Huang, 2001). This dissertation examines the real credit performance of Chinese banks ba...

  20. Critical infrastructure cyber-security risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Spyridopoulos, T.; Maraslis, K.; Tryfonas, T.; Oikonomou, G.

    2017-01-01

    Traditional IT cyber-security risk management methods are based on the evaluation of risks calculated as the likelihood of cyber-security incidents occurring. However, these probabilities are usually estimations or guesses based on past experience and incomplete data. Incorrect estimations can lead to errors in the evaluation of risks that can ultimately affect the protection of the system. This issue is also transferred to methods used in Industrial Control Systems (ICSs), as they are mainly...