Modelling of motorway tunnels scenario for utilization of conditionally released radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hrncir, Tomas; Panik, Michal; Necas, Vladimir

2011-01-01

Considerable amount of solid radioactive waste with radioactivity slightly above the limits for unconditional release is generated during the decommissioning of the nuclear installations. Conditional release deals with precisely this type of materials with activity slightly above limits in order to save considerable financial resources, which would be otherwise spend on treatment, conditioning and disposal of these materials at appropriate repository. The basic principles of conditional release as well as possibilities of reusing of the conditionally released materials are described. One of these possibilities of the reusing was chosen and application proposal of conditional release of metal waste - steel reinforcement in the concrete, which could be used for construction of motorway tunnels, was created. The computer code Visiplan 4.0 3D ALARA planning tool software was used for the calculation of effective individual dose for personnel constructing the tunnel and for critical group related to scenario. Particular models for individual scenarios of conditional release have been developed within the scope of this software code. The aim of the paper is to determine a level of the radioactivity of conditional released materials to avoid over exceeding the value of annual individual effective dose 10μSv/year established by international recommendations. (author)

Scenarios for long-term release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository in the Los Medanos region of New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bingham, F.W.; Barr, G.E.

1979-05-01

This report discusses hypothetical sequences of events that could conceivably release radionuclides from radioactive waste buried in the proposed WIPP repository. All the scenarios are described in terms specific to the WIPP site; they include only events whose occurrence is physically possible there. The report estimates the relative probabilities of the scenarios at times ranging from 1000 to 1 million years after the repository is sealed. Although none of the scenarios is judged likely, the report recommends several for detailed computer modeling and consequence analysis

Scenarios and analytical methods for UF6 releases at NRC-licensed fuel cycle facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siman-Tov, M.; Dykstra, J.; Holt, D.D.; Huxtable, W.P.; Just, R.A.; Williams, W.R.

1984-06-01

This report identifies and discusses potential scenarios for the accidental release of UF 6 at NRC-licensed UF 6 production and fuel fabrication facilities based on a literature review, site visits, and DOE enrichment plant experience. Analytical tools needed for evaluating source terms for such releases are discussed, and the applicability of existing methods is reviewed. Accident scenarios are discussed under the broad headings of cylinder failures, UF 6 process system failures, nuclear criticality events, and operator errors and are categorized by location, release source, phase of UF 6 prior to release, release flow characteristics, release causes, initiating events, and UF 6 inventory at risk. At least three types of releases are identified for further examination: (1) a release from a liquid-filled cylinder outdoors, (2) a release from a pigtail or cylinder in a steam chest, (3) an indoor release from either (a) a pigtail or liquid-filled cylinder or (b) other indoor source depending on facility design and operating procedures. Indoor release phenomena may be analyzed to determine input terms for a ventilation model by using a time-dependent homogeneous compartment model or a more complex hydrodynamic model if time-dependent, spatial variations in concentrations, temperature, and pressure are important. Analytical tools for modeling directed jets and explosive releases are discussed as well as some of the complex phenomena to be considered in analyzing UF 6 releases both indoors and outdoors

Scenarios for 14C release to the atmosphere by the world nuclear industry and estimated radiological impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Till, J.E.; Killough, G.G.

1978-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The scenarios for worldwide 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released, (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects are based on integrations over infinite time. Comparisons with estimated effects from naturally formed 14 C are shown

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

1981-01-01

This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts

Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

2017-08-02

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

Analysis of core degradation and relocation phenomena and scenarios in a Nordic-type BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galushin, Sergey, E-mail: galushin@kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pkudinov@kth.se

2016-12-15

Highlights: • A data base of the debris properties in lower plenum generated using MELCOR code. • The timing of safety systems has significant effect on the relocated debris properties. • Loose coupling between core relocation and vessel failure analyses was established. - Abstract: Severe Accident Management (SAM) in Nordic Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) employs ex-vessel cooling of core melt debris. The melt is released from the failed vessel and poured into a deep pool of water located under the reactor. The melt is expected to fragment, quench, and form a debris bed, coolable by a natural circulation and evaporation of water. Success of the strategy is contingent upon melt release conditions from the vessel and melt-coolant interaction that determine (i) properties of the debris bed and its coolability (ii) potential for energetic melt-coolant interactions (steam explosions). Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM+) framework is currently under development for quantification of the risks associated with formation of non-coolable debris bed and occurrence of steam explosions, both presenting a credible threats to containment integrity. The ROAAM+ framework consist of loosely coupled models that describe each stage of the accident progression. Core relocation analysis framework provides initial conditions for melt vessel interaction, vessel failure and melt release frameworks. The properties of relocated debris and melt release conditions, including in-vessel and ex-vessel pressure, lower drywell pool depth and temperature, are sensitive to the accident scenarios and timing of safety systems recovery and operator actions. This paper illustrates a methodological approach and relevant data for establishing a connection between core relocation and vessel failure analysis in ROAAM+ approach. MELCOR code is used for analysis of core degradation and relocation phenomena. Properties of relocated debris are obtained as functions of the accident scenario

Maximum forseeable accident analysis made by a sodium leak on the BN-800 primary circuit and the more constraining accident development scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanenko, V.N.; Zybin, V.A.

1988-01-01

In this paper the different ways of development for the BN-800 maximum credible accident in case of loss and fire of primary sodium are examined. The more constraining scenario is presented. During the scenario analysis the accidental release of radioactive materials in the environment has been studied. These releases are below the authorized values [fr

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

2005-01-01

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-01-01

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage.

Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goodwin, B W; Stephens, M E; Davison, C C; Johnson, L H; Zach, R

1994-12-01

AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices.

Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodwin, B.W.; Stephens, M.E.; Davison, C.C.; Johnson, L.H.; Zach, R.

1994-12-01

AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Heoksoon; Bhang, Giin; Na, Janghwan; Ban, Jaeha; Kim, Myungsu

2015-01-01

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance

Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, Heoksoon; Bhang, Giin; Na, Janghwan; Ban, Jaeha; Kim, Myungsu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance.

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Scenarios of 14C releases from the World Nuclear Power Industry from 1975 to 2020 and the estimated radiological impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Killough, G.G.; Till, J.E.

1978-01-01

This article presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The three scenarios for worldwide 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in the effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects based on integration over infinite time (effectively 46,000 years or about 8 half-lives of 14 C) are as follows: 110,000 cancers and 75,000 genetic effects from the pessimistic scenario; 21,000 cancers and 14,000 genetic effects from the optimistic scenario; 22,000 cancers and 15,000 genetic effects from the intermediate scenario; 100,000 cancers and 68,000 genetic effects from the 14 C formed in nature between 1975 and 2020; and 380,000 cancers and 250,000 genetic effects from the 14 C formed by the detonation of nuclear explosives from 1945 to 1974. Comparable effects from the naturally formed 14 C in steady state in the environment, also integrated over 46,000 years, are approximately 66 million cancers and 43 million genetic effects. These estimates are based on a world population that is assumed to remain stationary at 12.2 billion after 2075

A Nuclide Release Model for a Deep Well Scenario near a Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Choi, Jong Won

2010-01-01

Recently several template programs ready for the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste repository (HLW) and a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste repository (LILW) systems, that are conceptually modeled, have been developed by utilizing GoldSim and AMBER at KAERI. During the last few years, such template programs have been utilized for the evaluation of nuclide transports in the nearand far-field of a repository as well as transport through the biosphere under various normal and disruptive release scenarios with assumed data. The GoldSim program, another template program by which influence due to a well located very near to the repository has been modeled and evaluated for an assumed case in order to simulate the worst exposure scenario. This seems very useful to evaluate an accidental event a long time after closure of the repository has been developed and illustrated

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Perspectives on the geological and hydrological aspects of long-term release scenario analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stottlemyre, J.A.; Wallace, R.W.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

1980-06-01

Information that may be relevant to individuals involved with analyzing long-term release scenarios of specific repositories for nuclear waste is presented. The bulk of the information is derived from recent studies in West Germany and the United States. Emphasis is on the specific geological and hydrological phenomena that, alone or in concert, could potentially perturb the area around specific repository sites. Research is continuing on most of the topics discussed within this report. Because research is ongoing, statements and conclusions described in this document are subject to change. The main topics of this report are: (1) fracturing, (2) geohydrology, (3) magmatic activity, and (4) geomorphology. Therefore, the site-specific nature of the problem cannot be overemphasized. As an example of how one might combine the many synergistic and time-dependent parameters into a concise format the reader is referred to A Conceputal Simulation Model for Release Scenario Analysis of a Hypothetical Site in Columbia Plateau Basalts, PNL-2892. For additional details on the topics in this report, the reader is referred to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) consultant report listed in the bibliography.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Perspectives on the geological and hydrological aspects of long-term release scenario analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stottlemyre, J.A.; Wallace, R.W.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

1980-06-01

Information that may be relevant to individuals involved with analyzing long-term release scenarios of specific repositories for nuclear waste is presented. The bulk of the information is derived from recent studies in West Germany and the United States. Emphasis is on the specific geological and hydrological phenomena that, alone or in concert, could potentially perturb the area around specific repository sites. Research is continuing on most of the topics discussed within this report. Because research is ongoing, statements and conclusions described in this document are subject to change. The main topics of this report are: (1) fracturing, (2) geohydrology, (3) magmatic activity, and (4) geomorphology. Therefore, the site-specific nature of the problem cannot be overemphasized. As an example of how one might combine the many synergistic and time-dependent parameters into a concise format the reader is referred to A Conceputal Simulation Model for Release Scenario Analysis of a Hypothetical Site in Columbia Plateau Basalts, PNL-2892. For additional details on the topics in this report, the reader is referred to the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) consultant report listed in the bibliography

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. PWR, ice condenser design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denning, R S; Gieseke, J A; Cybulskis, P; Lee, K W; Jordan, H; Curtis, L A; Kelly, R F; Kogan, V; Schumacher, P M

1986-07-01

This report presents results of analyses of the environmental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with an ice-condenser containment. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. The Sequoyah Plant has been used in this study as an example of a PWR ice-condenser plant. (author)

Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

1985-01-01

A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

Preliminary analysis of public dose from CFETR gaseous tritium release

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nie, Baojie [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027 (China); Ni, Muyi, E-mail: muyi.ni@fds.org.cn [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); Lian, Chao; Jiang, Jieqiong [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China)

2015-02-15

Highlights: • Present the amounts and limit dose of tritium release to the environment for CFETR. • Perform a preliminary simulation of radiation dose for gaseous tritium release. • Key parameters about soil types, wind speed, stability class, effective release height and age were sensitivity analyzed. • Tritium release amount is recalculated consistently with dose limit in Chinese regulation for CFETR. - Abstract: To demonstrate tritium self-sufficiency and other engineering issues, the scientific conception of Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) has been proposed in China parallel with ITER and before DEMO reactor. Tritium environmental safety for CFETR is an important issue and must be evaluated because of the huge amounts of tritium cycling in reactor. In this work, different tritium release scenarios of CFETR and dose limit regulations in China are introduced. And the public dose is preliminarily analyzed under normal and accidental events. Furthermore, after finishing the sensitivity analysis of key input parameters, the public dose is reevaluated based on extreme parameters. Finally, tritium release amount is recalculated consistently with the dose limit in Chinese regulation for CFETR, which would provide a reference for tritium system design of CFETR.

Overview study of LNG release prevention and control systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Holter, G.M.; Powers, T.B.

1982-03-01

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry employs a variety of release prevention and control techniques to reduce the likelihood and the consequences of accidental LNG releases. A study of the effectiveness of these release prevention and control systems is being performed. Reference descriptions for the basic types of LNG facilities were developed. Then an overview study was performed to identify areas that merit subsequent and more detailed analyses. The specific objectives were to characterize the LNG facilities of interest and their release prevention and control systems, identify possible weak links and research needs, and provide an analytical framework for subsequent detailed analyses. The LNG facilities analyzed include a reference export terminal, marine vessel, import terminal, peakshaving facility, truck tanker, and satellite facility. A reference description for these facilities, a preliminary hazards analysis (PHA), and a list of representative release scenarios are included. The reference facility descriptions outline basic process flows, plant layouts, and safety features. The PHA identifies the important release prevention operations. Representative release scenarios provide a format for discussing potential initiating events, effects of the release prevention and control systems, information needs, and potential design changes. These scenarios range from relatively frequent but low consequence releases to unlikely but large releases and are the principal basis for the next stage of analysis.

Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) - MELCOR Crosswalk: Phase II Analyzing a Partially Recovered Accident Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrews, Nathan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Faucett, Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haskin, Troy Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luxat, Dave [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Geiger, Garrett [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Codella, Brittany [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-10-01

Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recovery of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.

Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

2012-01-01

textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ursic, M.; Leskovar, M.

2008-01-01

An ex-vessel steam explosion may develop during a severe reactor accident when the reactor vessel fails and the molten core interacts with the coolant in the reactor cavity. At this process part of the corium energy is intensively transferred to water in a very short time scale. The water vaporizes at high pressure and expands, doing work on its surrounding. Although the steam explosion has probably a low probability of occurrence, it is an important nuclear safety issue in case of a severe reactor accident. Namely, the formed very high pressure region induces dynamic loadings on the surrounding structures that may potentially lead to an early release of the radioactive material into the environment. Although the steam explosion events have being studied for several years, the level of the process and consequences understanding is still not adequate. To increase the level of confidence the OECD programme SERENA (Steam Explosion REsolution for Nuclear Applications) was established in 2002. The objectives of the program were to evaluate capabilities of the current generation of the FCI (Fuel-Coolant Interaction) computer codes in predicting the steam explosion induced loads, identifying key FCI phenomena and associated uncertainties impacting the predictability of the steam explosion energetics in the reactor situations and proposing confirmatory research to reduce the uncertainties to acceptable levels for the steam explosion risk assessment. To get a better insight into the most challenging ex-vessel steam explosions, analyses for different locations of the melt release, the cavity water sub-cooling, the primary system pressure overpressure and the triggering time were preformed for a typical pressurized water reactor cavity. The results of some scenarios revealed that significantly higher pressure loads are predicted than obtained in the OECD programme SERENA Phase 1. Among the performed analyses for the central melt pour scenarios, the maximum pressure loads were

Scenarios for potential radionuclide release from marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynn, N.; Mount, M.; Gussgard, K.

1995-01-01

The largest inventory of radioactive materials dumped in the Kara Sea by the former Soviet Union comes from the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) of seven marine reactors, the current (1994) inventory of which makes a total of approximately 4.7x10 15 Bq. In progressing its work for the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project, under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Source Term Working Group has analysed the Source Term and subsequently developed a number of model scenarios for the potential release patterns of radionuclides into the Kara Sea from the SNF and activated components dumped within the marine reactors.These models are based on the present and future conditions of the barrier materials and their configuration within the dumped objects. They account for progressive corrosion of the outer and inner steel barriers, breakdown of the organic fillers, and degradation and leaching from the SNFs. Annual release rates are predicted to four thousand years into the future. 5 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Scenarios and methods that induce protruding or released CNTs after degradation of nanocomposite materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirth, Sabine; Cena, Lorenzo; Cox, Gerhard; Tomović, Zeljko; Peters, Thomas; Wohlleben, Wendel

2013-04-01

Nanocomposite materials may be considered as a low-risk application of nanotechnology, if the nanofillers remain embedded throughout the life-cycle of the products in which they are embedded. We hypothesize that release of free CNTs occurs by a combination of mechanical stress and chemical degradation of the polymer matrix. We experimentally address limiting cases: Mechanically released fragments may show tubular protrusions on their surface. Here we identify these protrusions unambiguously as naked CNTs by chemically resolved microscopy and a suitable preparation protocol. By size-selective quantification of fragments we establish as a lower limit that at least 95 % of the CNTs remain embedded. Contrary to classical fiber composite approaches, we link this phenomenon to matrix materials with only a few percent elongation at break, predicting which materials should still cover their CNT nanofillers after machining. Protruding networks of CNTs remain after photochemical degradation of the matrix, and we show that it takes the worst case combinations of weathering plus high-shear wear to release free CNTs in the order of mg/m 2 /year. Synergy of chemical degradation and mechanical energy input is identified as the priority scenario of CNT release, but its lab simulation by combined methods is still far from real-world validation.

Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 2006 through 2010.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poch, L. A.; Veselka, T. D.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B. (Decision and Information Sciences); (Western Area Power Administration, Colorado River Storage Project Management Center)

2011-08-22

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. A report released in January 2011 examined the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCD from 1997 to 2005. This report continues the analysis and examines the financial implications of the experimental flows conducted at the GCD from 2006 to 2010. An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes both that operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and the experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP powerplant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. Volume 3. PWR, subatmospheric containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denning, R.S.; Gieseke, J.A.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Jordan, H.; Curtis, L.A.; Kelly, R.F.; Kogan, V.; Schumacher, P.M.

1986-07-01

This report presents results of analyses of the enviromental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment design. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. the Surry plant has been used in this study as the reference plant for a subatmospheric design

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... overfilling and spill, or overpressurization and venting through relief valves or rupture disks; and (v... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling techniques, provided the techniques account for the specified modeling conditions and are recognized by industry as...

Radionuclides release possibility analysis of MSR at various accident conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Choong Wie; Kim, Hee Reyoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

There are some accidents which go beyond our expectation such as Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster and amounts of radionuclides release to environment, so more effort and research are conducted to prevent it. MSR (Molten Salt Reactor) is one of GEN-IV reactor types, and its coolant and fuel are mixtures of molten salt. MSR has a schematic like figure 1 and it has different features with the solid fuel reactor, but most important and interesting feature of MSR is its many safety systems. For example, MSR has a large negative void coefficient. Even though power increases, the reactor slows down soon. Radionuclides release possibility of MSR was analyzed at various accident conditions including Chernobyl and Fukushima ones. The MSR was understood to prevent the severe accident by the negative reactivity coefficient and the absence of explosive material such as water at the Chernobyl disaster condition. It was expected to contain fuel salts in the reactor building and not to release radionuclides into environment even if the primary system could be ruptured or broken and fuel salts would be leaked at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster condition of earthquake and tsunami. The MSR, which would not lead to the severe accident and therefore prevents the fuel release to the environment at many expected scenarios, was thought to have priority in the aspect of accidents. A quantitative analysis and a further research are needed to evaluate the possibility of radionuclide release to the environment at the various accident conditions based on the simple comparison of the safety feature between MSR and solid fuel reactor.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

Science.gov (United States)

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-09-12

Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios received increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.

A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-01-01

The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

Financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B.; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

2010-04-21

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. This paper examines the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCD from 1997 to 2005. An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a ''without experiments'' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

2018-04-01

A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dividing by four CO2 releases due to energy: the Negatep scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

2011-01-01

The Negatep scenario aims at dividing CO 2 releases by 4, which means, more or less, dividing the consumption of fossil energies by the same factor, in order to comply with the French 2005 energy act. After a description of the situation in 2006, of trends, and a recall of the objectives defined by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' regarding energy savings and renewable energies, the authors show that reaching such a reduction requires to: decrease to nearly zero oil and gas in the residential and tertiary sectors, reduce significantly the use of oil in the transport sector, reduce significantly the use of fossil fuels in industry, increase massively the share of electricity in the energy mix, maintain the share of nuclear in the electricity generation and, as long as the storage of electricity is not developed, limit the share of intermittent energies to a level compatible with that of gas turbines. The study shows that the proposed measures can fulfill the objectives for 2020 proposed by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement'

Application of scenario analysis in the investment projects evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brzaković Tomislav

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Investing represents an investment in the present to achieve certain effects in the future, and risk is an essential part of the investment process. Scenario analysis involves key risk factors of the project, its sensitivity to changes in key factors and the likelihood of their changes. Scenario analysis allows us to assign probabilities to the base case, the best case and the worst case so that we can find the expected value and standard deviation of the project's NPV to get a better idea of the project's risk. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to make relevant investment decisions on the basis of the parameters of projects risk, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The paper is based on a mathematical model, applied to a specific agricultural company. In our case, the project has a wide range of possibilities and a large potential negative value, which suggests a great risk of the project. Although the scenario analysis shows a higher risk, it is not clear if the project should be accepted or not, and therefore, it is necessary to conduct simulation analysis, in order to get reliable answers.

Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1998-09-01

When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

2017-05-01

Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

Safety barriers on oil and gas platforms. Means to prevent hydrocarbon releases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sklet, Snorre

2005-12-15

The main objective of the PhD project has been to develop concepts and methods that can be used to define, illustrate, analyse, and improve safety barriers in the operational phase of offshore oil and gas production platforms. The main contributions of this thesis are; Clarification of the term safety barrier with respect to definitions, classification, and relevant attributes for analysis of barrier performance Development and discussion of a representative set of hydrocarbon release scenarios Development and testing of a new method, BORA-Release, for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of hydrocarbon releases Safety barriers are defined as physical and/or non-physical means planned to prevent, control, or mitigate undesired events or accidents. The means may range from a single technical unit or human actions, to a complex socio-technical system. It is useful to distinguish between barrier functions and barrier systems. Barrier functions describe the purpose of safety barriers or what the safety barriers shall do in order to prevent, control, or mitigate undesired events or accidents. Barrier systems describe how a barrier function is realized or executed. If the barrier system is functioning, the barrier function is performed. If a barrier function is performed successfully, it should have a direct and significant effect on the occurrence and/or consequences of an undesired event or accident. It is recommended to address the following attributes to characterize the performance of safety barriers; a) functionality/effectiveness, b) reliability/ availability, c) response time, d) robustness, and e) triggering event or condition. For some types of barriers, not all the attributes are relevant or necessary in order to describe the barrier performance. The presented hydrocarbon release scenarios include initiating events, barrier functions introduced to prevent hydrocarbon releases, and barrier systems realizing the barrier functions. Both technical and human

Collapse Scenarios of High-Rise Buildings Using Plastic Limit Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Liu

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC in New York, USA collapsed on 11 September, 2001. The incident is regarded as the most severe disaster for high-rise buildings in history. Investigations into the collapse scenarios are still being conducted. Possible collapse scenarios assessed by local and international experts were reported. Another possible collapse scenario of the WTC based on two hypotheses was proposed in this paper, and the idea of plastic limit analysis was applied to evaluate the approximate limit load. According to the theory analysis and numerical calculations, a conclusion can be drawn that the large fires, aroused by the terrorist attack, play a significant role on the collapse of the WTC.

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Revised financial analysis of experimental releases conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during water years 1997 through 2005.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B.; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration, Colorado River Storage Project Management Center

2011-01-11

Because of concerns about the impact that Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) operations were having on downstream ecosystems and endangered species, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) conducted an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on dam operations (DOE 1996). New operating rules and management goals for GCD that had been specified in the Record of Decision (ROD) (Reclamation 1996) were adopted in February 1997. In addition to issuing new operating criteria, the ROD mandated experimental releases for the purpose of conducting scientific studies. This paper examines the financial implications of the experimental flows that were conducted at the GCD from 1997 to 2005. An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. This study estimates the financial costs of experimental releases, identifies the main factors that contribute to these costs, and compares the interdependencies among these factors. An integrated set of tools was used to compute the financial impacts of the experimental releases by simulating the operation of the GCD under two scenarios, namely, (1) a baseline scenario that assumes operations comply with the ROD operating criteria and experimental releases that actually took place during the study period, and (2) a 'without experiments' scenario that is identical to the baseline scenario of operations that comply with the GCD ROD, except it assumes that experimental releases did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the main simulation tool used to dispatch GCD and other hydropower plants that comprise the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). Extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and Western Area Power Administration's (Western's) power purchase prices were used for the simulation. In addition to estimating the financial impact of experimental releases

Quantitative scenario analysis of low and intermediate level radioactive repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Keon Jae; Lee, Sang Yoon; Park, Keon Baek; Song, Min Cheon; Lee, Ho Jin

1998-03-01

Derivation of hypothetical radioactive waste disposal facility os conducted through sub-component characteristic analysis and conceptual modeling. It is studied that quantitative analysis of constructed scenario in terms of annual effective dose equivalent. This study is sequentially conducted according to performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facility such as : ground water flow analysis, source term analysis, ground water transport, surface water transport, dose and pathways. The routine program module such as VAM2D-PAGAN-GENII is used for quantitative scenario analysis. Detailed data used in this module are come from experimental data of Korean territory and default data given within this module. Is case of blank data for code execution, it is estimated through reasonable engineering sense

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

2009-11-15

Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, R.U.

1995-01-01

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

OpenAIRE

WEI, Chien-Hung; CHUNG, Ming-Chih

2002-01-01

Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnai...

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites

Science.gov (United States)

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limi...

Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

2018-01-01

Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

2008-01-01

A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

Analysis of in-pile tritium release experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopasz, J.P.; Tam, S.W.; Johnson, C.E.

1992-01-01

The objective of this work is to characterize tritium release behavior from lithium ceramics and develop insight into the underlying tritium release mechanisms. Analysis of tritium release data from recent laboratory experiments with lithium aluminate has identified physical processes which were previously unaccounted for in tritium release models. A new model that incorporates the recent data and provides for release from multiple sites rather than only one site was developed. Calculations of tritium release using this model are in excellent agreement with the tritium release behavior reported for the MOZART experiment

Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nowack, B.; David, R.M.; Fissan, H.; Morris, H.; Shatkin, J.A.; Stintz, M.; Zepp, R.; Brouwer, D.

2013-01-01

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is

Financial Analysis of Experimental Releases Conducted at Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2015

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graziano, D. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poch, L. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Veselka, T. D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-11-01

This report examines the financial implications of experimental flows conducted at the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) in water year (WY) 2015. It is the seventh report in a series examining the financial implications of experimental flows conducted since the Record of Decision (ROD) was adopted in February 1997 (Reclamation 1996). A report released in January 2011 examined WYs 1997 to 2005 (Veselka et al. 2011); a report released in August 2011 examined WYs 2006 to 2010 (Poch et al. 2011); a report released June 2012 examined WY 2011 (Poch et al. 2012); a report released April 2013 examined WY 2012 (Poch et al. 2013); a report released June 2014 examined WY 2013 (Graziano et al. 2014); and a report released September 2015 examined WY 2014 (Graziano et al. 2015). An experimental release may have either a positive or negative impact on the financial value of energy production. Only one experimental release was conducted at GCD in WY 2015; specifically, a high flow experimental (HFE) release conducted in November 2014. For this experimental release, financial costs of approximately $2.1 million were incurred because the HFE required sustained water releases that exceeded the powerplant’s maximum flow rate. In addition, during the month of the experiment, operators were not allowed to shape GCD power production to either follow firm power customer loads or to respond to market prices. This study identifies the main factors that contribute to HFE costs and examines the interdependencies among these factors. It applies an integrated set of tools to estimate financial impacts by simulating the GCD operations under two scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario that mimics both HFE operations during the experiment and during the rest of the year when it complies with the 1996 ROD operating criteria, and (2) a “without experiments” scenario that is identical to the baseline except it assumes that the HFE did not occur. The Generation and Transmission Maximization (GTMax) model was the

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

1999-02-01

In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

Methods and data for HTGR fuel performance and radionuclide release modeling during normal operation and accidents for safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verfondern, K.; Martin, R.C.; Moormann, R.

1993-01-01

The previous status report released in 1987 on reference data and calculation models for fission product transport in High-Temperature, Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) safety analyses has been updated to reflect the current state of knowledge in the German HTGR program. The content of the status report has been expanded to include information from other national programs in HTGRs to provide comparative information on methods of analysis and the underlying database for fuel performance and fission product transport. The release and transport of fission products during normal operating conditions and during the accident scenarios of core heatup, water and air ingress, and depressurization are discussed. (orig.) [de

Multi-scenario electromagnetic load analysis for CFETR and EAST magnet systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Weiwei; Liu, Xufeng, E-mail: lxf@ipp.ac.cn; Du, Shuangsong; Song, Yuntao

2017-01-15

Highlights: • A multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using interaction matrix method. • The simulator is applied to EM analysis of CFETR and EAST magnet system. • The EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios and the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are analyzed with the simulator. • Results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for multi-scenario and real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system. - Abstract: A technology for electromagnetic (EM) analysis of the current-carrying components in tokamaks has been proposed recently (Rozov, 2013; Rozov and Alekseev, 2015). According to this method, the EM loads can be obtained by a linear transform of given currents using the pre-computed interaction matrix. Based on this technology, a multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using Fortran programming in this paper. And the simulator is applied to EM analysis of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) magnet system. The pre-computed EM interaction matrices of CFETR and EAST magnet system are implanted into the simulator, then the EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios are evaluated with the simulator, and the comparison of the results with ANSYS method results validates the efficiency and accuracy of the method. Using the simulator, the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are further analyzed, and results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for the real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system.

Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendel, J.E.

1980-11-01

The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

2001-01-01

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money

Possibilities for the Reuse of Steel from Decommissioning. Selected Scenarios in the Process of Proposal and Evaluation of Manufacturing Processes for Conditional Released Steel and their Application in General and Nuclear Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bezak, P.; Daniska, V.; Ondra, F.; Necas, V.

2012-01-01

Conditional release of steels from NPP decommissioning enables controlled reuse of non-negligible volumes of steels. For proposal of scenarios for steel reuse, it is needed to identify and evaluate partial elementary activities of the whole process from conditional release of steels, manufacturing of various elements up to realisation of scenarios. For scenarios of reuse of conditionally released steel the products of steel, as steel reinforcements, rails, profiles and sheets for technical constructions such as bridges, tunnels, railways and other constructions which guarantee the long-term properties over the periods of 50-100 years are considered. The idea offers also the possibility for using this type of steel for particular technical constructions, directly usable in nuclear facilities. The paper presents the review of activities for manufacturing of various steel construction elements made from conditionally released steels and their use in general and also in the nuclear industry. As the starting material for manufacturing of steel elements ingots or just fragments of steel after dismantling in controlled area can be used. These input materials are re-melted in industrial facilities in order to achieve the required physical and chemical characteristics. Mostly used technique for manufacturing of the steel construction elements is rolling. As the products considered in scenarios for reuse of conditional released steels are bars for reinforcement concrete, rolled steel sheets and other rolled profiles. For use in the nuclear industry it offers the possibility for casting of thick-walled steel containers for long-term storage of high level radioactive components in integral storage and also assembly of stainless steel tanks for storing of liquid radioactive waste. Lists of elementary activities which are needed for manufacturing of selected steel elements are elaborated. These elementary activities are then the base for detailed safety evaluation of external

The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

2006-01-01

For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Combining scenarios in a calculation of the overall probability distribution of cumulative releases of radioactivity from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, southeastern New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tierney, M.S.

1991-11-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), in southeastern New Mexico, is a research and development facility to demonstrate safe disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. The US Department of Energy will designate WIPP as a disposal facility if it meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for disposal of such waste; the standard includes a requirement that estimates of cumulative releases of radioactivity to the accessible environment be incorporated in an overall probability distribution. The WIPP Project has chosen an approach to calculation of an overall probability distribution that employs the concept of scenarios for release and transport of radioactivity to the accessible environment. This report reviews the use of Monte Carlo methods in the calculation of an overall probability distribution and presents a logical and mathematical foundation for use of the scenario concept in such calculations. The report also draws preliminary conclusions regarding the shape of the probability distribution for the WIPP system; preliminary conclusions are based on the possible occurrence of three events and the presence of one feature: namely, the events ''attempted boreholes over rooms and drifts,'' ''mining alters ground-water regime,'' ''water-withdrawal wells provide alternate pathways,'' and the feature ''brine pocket below room or drift.'' Calculation of the WIPP systems's overall probability distributions for only five of sixteen possible scenario classes that can be obtained by combining the four postulated events or features

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Analysis of drug effects on neurotransmitter release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowell, P.; Garner, A.

1986-01-01

The release of neurotransmitter is routinely studied in a superfusion system in which serial samples are collected and the effects of drugs or other treatments on the amount of material in the superfusate is determined. With frequent sampling interval, this procedure provides a mechanism for dynamically characterizing the release process itself. Using automated data collection in conjunction with polyexponential computer analysis, the equation which describes the release process in each experiment is determined. Analysis of the data during the nontreated phase of the experiment allows an internal control to be used for accurately assessing any changes in neurotransmitter release which may occur during a subsequent treatment phase. The use of internal controls greatly improves the signal to noise ratio and allows determinations of very low concentrations of drugs on small amounts of tissue to be made. In this presentation, the effects of 10 μM nicotine on 3 H-dopamine release in rat nucleus accumbens is described. The time course, potency and efficacy of the drug treatment is characterized using this system. Determinations of the exponential order of the release as well as the rate constants allow one to study the mechanism of the release process. A description of 3 H-dopamine release in normal as well as Ca ++ -free medium is presented

Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-15

The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. From the RELAP5 code analysis, it was shown that the primary system cooling was practicable by using the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system. (author)

Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

2014-05-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and

TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chien-Hung WEI

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnaire to find out the most important factors affecting BOT financing. The findings of this study are four major factors affecting public and private financing scenarios. In this paper, we also propose some suggestions as possible complements to public and private sector financing strategies.

RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KOZLOWSKI, D.S.

2005-01-01

The body of this document analyzes scenarios involving releases of dried tank waste from the DBVS dried waste transfer system and OGTS HEPA filters. Analyses of dried waste release scenarios from the CH-TRUM WPU are included as Appendix D

Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

1984-11-01

This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab

The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal. Pt. 3. Main document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

2004-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-07-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Radionuclide release calculations for SAR-08

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomson, Gavin; Miller, Alex; Smith, Graham; Jackson, Duncan

2008-04-01

Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the post-closure safety assessment of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate waste (L/ILW), SAFE, the SKB has prepared an updated assessment called SAR-08. This report describes the radionuclide release calculations that have been undertaken as part of SAR-08. The information, assumptions and data used in the calculations are reported and the results are presented. The calculations address issues raised in the regulatory review, but also take account of new information including revised inventory data. The scenarios considered include the main case of expected behaviour of the system, with variants; low probability releases, and so-called residual scenarios. Apart from these scenario uncertainties, data uncertainties have been examined using a probabilistic approach. Calculations have been made using the AMBER software. This allows all the component features of the assessment model to be included in one place. AMBER has been previously used to reproduce results the corresponding calculations in the SAFE assessment. It is also used in demonstration of the IAEA's near surface disposal assessment methodology ISAM and has been subject to very substantial verification tests and has been used in verifying other assessment codes. Results are presented as a function of time for the release of radionuclides from the near field, and then from the far field into the biosphere. Radiological impacts of the releases are reported elsewhere. Consideration is given to each radionuclide and to each component part of the repository. The releases from the entire repository are also presented. The peak releases rates are, for most scenarios, due to organic C-14. Other radionuclides which contribute to peak release rates include inorganic C-14, Ni-59 and Ni-63. (author)

Radionuclide release calculations for SAR-08

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomson, Gavin; Miller, Alex; Smith, Graham; Jackson, Duncan (Enviros Consulting Ltd, Wolverhampton (United Kingdom))

2008-04-15

Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the post-closure safety assessment of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate waste (L/ILW), SAFE, the SKB has prepared an updated assessment called SAR-08. This report describes the radionuclide release calculations that have been undertaken as part of SAR-08. The information, assumptions and data used in the calculations are reported and the results are presented. The calculations address issues raised in the regulatory review, but also take account of new information including revised inventory data. The scenarios considered include the main case of expected behaviour of the system, with variants; low probability releases, and so-called residual scenarios. Apart from these scenario uncertainties, data uncertainties have been examined using a probabilistic approach. Calculations have been made using the AMBER software. This allows all the component features of the assessment model to be included in one place. AMBER has been previously used to reproduce results the corresponding calculations in the SAFE assessment. It is also used in demonstration of the IAEA's near surface disposal assessment methodology ISAM and has been subject to very substantial verification tests and has been used in verifying other assessment codes. Results are presented as a function of time for the release of radionuclides from the near field, and then from the far field into the biosphere. Radiological impacts of the releases are reported elsewhere. Consideration is given to each radionuclide and to each component part of the repository. The releases from the entire repository are also presented. The peak releases rates are, for most scenarios, due to organic C-14. Other radionuclides which contribute to peak release rates include inorganic C-14, Ni-59 and Ni-63. (author)

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

2011-01-01

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clo, Stefano

2006-01-01

This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development [it

The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheaff, R

1999-01-01

At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

Experimental evaluation of mercury release from molten lead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tutu, N.K.; Greene, G.A.; Van Tuyle, G.J.

1994-01-01

In order to assess the worst impact of an extremely improbable accident in an accelerator target for producing tritium, an event scenario was developed and analyzed, and an experiment was Performed to resolve an important question raised by the analysis. The target, known as SILC for ''Spallation Induced Lithium Conversion,'' contains approximately 22 metric tons of Pb, with small inventories of potentially hazardous radionuclides which continue to accumulate as the production cycle continues. Analysis of a scenario involving several failures in the normal, backup, and emergency cooling systems is presented, including event simulation by BNL indicating when and how long the Pb continues to melt, and a summary of SNL estimates of the releases of potentially hazardous spallation products is given. Finally, a recent experiment is described in which it was shown that virtually no mercury is likely to escape from the molten Pb, a result having significant impact on the potential risk of such worst-case scenarios

Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoette, Trisha Marie

2012-03-01

Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

1982-09-01

Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, M J; Crouch, E

1982-09-01

Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P

2007-01-15

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E A Kihn

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R.; Valentine, G.; Crowe, B.

1993-08-01

Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants

Need for Outcome Scenario Analysis of Clinical Trials in Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Verdugo, Rosa; Erbach, Michael; Schnell, Oliver

2017-03-01

Since the FDA requirement for cardiovascular safety of all new antihyperglycemic drugs to enter the market, the number and extent of phase 3 clinical trials has markedly increased. Unexpected trial results imply an enormous economic, personal and time cost and has deleterious effects over R&D. To prevent unforeseen developments in clinical trials, we recommend performing a comprehensive prospective outcome scenario analysis before launching the trial. In this commentary, we discuss the most important factors to take in consideration for prediction of clinical trial outcome scenarios and propose a theoretical model for decision making.

The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.

1988-01-01

Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

Release fractions for Rocky Flats specific accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiss, R.C.

1992-01-01

As Rocky Flats and other DOE facilities begin the transition process towards decommissioning, the nature of the scenarios to be studied in safety analysis will change. Whereas the previous emphasis in safety accidents related to production, now the emphasis is shifting to accidents related tc decommissioning and waste management. Accident scenarios of concern at Rocky Flats now include situations of a different nature and different scale than are represented by most of the existing experimental accident data. This presentation will discuss approaches at sign to use for applying the existing body of release fraction data to this new emphasis. Mention will also be made of ongoing efforts to produce new data and improve the understanding of physical mechanisms involved

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach...

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

2007-05-15

The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Methodological studies for deriving release criteria for liquid effluents from medical installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shu, Jane; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear; Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Heilbron Filho, Paulo F.L.; Crispim, Verginia R.

2009-01-01

This work aims to develop a methodology for the assessment of clearance limits for the release of liquid waste arising from medical installations using radionuclides for medical diagnostic purposes in the town of Rio de Janeiro. The results will be used to assess the need to justify or to revise the current clearance values as specified in regulation CNEN-NE-6.05 - Radioactive Waste Management in Radioactive Facilities. The proposed methodology is based on the mathematical model recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency, adapted to the observed release conditions in the study area. In order to turn the assessment as realistic as possible, two scenarios are simulated. The first scenario simulates the release to the sewage system with access to a sewer treatment stations. The second scenario simulates the releases without passing a treatment station, with direct outflow to surface water. Probabilistic assessments were performed using the Crystal Ball software. Distributions were than compared to current IAEA clearance criteria that include specific values for average and low probability scenarios. The results will be used to derive adequate clearance levels for radionuclides used in nuclear diagnostic medicine in Brazil according to the specific relevant release scenario. (author)

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

2017-01-01

We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

Disruption scenarios for a nuclear-waste repository on the Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Link, R.L.; Bingham, F.W.; Barr, G.E.

1981-01-01

Scenarios are being constructed for the release of radioactive maerial from hypothetical repositories in different types of rock at NTS. Deductive event trees are constructed; each path through an event tree is a scenario. The complete set of NTS event trees comprises about 340 scenarios, not counting the multiple paths through the subtrees made by expanding complex events. Each of these scenarios is being analyzed for 10 different types of rocks

Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. This report uses the conceptual models developed from the FEP analysis to present a description of the base scenario, in terms of the processes to be represented in detailed models. This report does not present an assessment of the base scenario, but rather seeks to provide a summary of those features, events and processes that should be represented, at an appropriate level of detail, within numerical models. The requirements for the development of appropriate models for representing the base scenario are described in an underlying report within the model development document suite. (author)

European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

2011-01-01

In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Improved Methodology of MSLB M/E Release Analysis for OPR1000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Seok Jeong; Kim, Cheol Woo; Seo, Jong Tae

2006-01-01

A new mass and energy (M/E) release analysis methodology for the equipment environmental qualification (EEQ) on loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) has been recently developed and adopted on small break LOCA EEQ. The new methodology for the M/E release analysis is extended to the M/E release analysis for the containment design for large break LOCA and the main steam line break (MSLB) accident, and named KIMERA (KOPEC Improved Mass and Energy Release Analysis) methodology. The computer code systems used in this methodology is RELAP5K/CONTEMPT4 (or RELAP5-ME) which couples RELAP5/MOD3.1/K with enhanced M/E model and LOCA long term model, and CONTEMPT4/ MOD5. This KIMERA methodology is applied to the MSLB M/E release analysis to evaluate the validation of KIMERA methodology for MSLB in containment design. The results are compared with the OPR 1000 FSAR

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Battista, Alexis

2017-01-01

The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

Safety barriers to prevent release of hydrocarbons during production of oil and gas

OpenAIRE

Sklet, Snorre; Hauge, Stein

2004-01-01

This report documents a set of scenarios related to release of hydrocarbons during production on oil and gas platforms. For each release scenario, initiating events, barrier functions aimed to prevent loss of containment, and barrier systems that realize these barrier functions are identified and described. Safety barriers to prevent release of hydrocarbons during production of oil and gas

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

1998-01-01

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

2007-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-10-01

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin

TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT FOR VENTILATION SYSTEM FILTRATION FAILURE LEADING TO AN UNFILTERED RELEASE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

2005-01-06

This document analyzed three scenarios involving failures of HEPA filtration systems leading to releases from liquid waste tanks. The scenarios are failure due to high temperature (fire), overpressure (filter blowout), and unfiltered release due to filter failure, improper installation. etc.

Determination of Radiological, Material and Organizational Measures for Reuse of Conditionally Released Materials from Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondra, F.; Vasko, M.; Necas, V.

2012-01-01

An important part of nuclear installation decommissioning is conditional release of materials. The mass of conditionally released materials can significantly influence radioactive waste management and capacity of radioactive waste repository. The influence on a total decommissioning cost is also not negligible. Several scenarios for reuse of conditionally released materials were developed within CONRELMAT project. Each scenario contains preparation phase, construction phase and operation phase. For each above mentioned phase is needed to determine radiological, material, organizational and other constraints for conditionally released materials reuse to not break exposure limits for staff and public. Constraints are determined on the basis of external and internal exposure calculations in created models for selected takes in particular scenarios phases. The paper presents a developed methodology for determination of part of above mentioned constraints concerning external exposure of staff or public. Values of staff external exposure are also presented in paper to ensure that staff or public exposure does not break the limits. The methodology comprises a proposal of following constraints: radionuclide limit concentration of conditionally released materials for specific scenarios and nuclide vectors, specific deployment of conditionally released materials eventually shielding materials, staff and public during the scenario's phases, organizational measures concerning time of staff's or public's stay in the vicinity of conditionally released materials for individual performed scenarios and nuclide vectors. The paper further describes VISIPLAN 3D ALARA calculation planning software tool used for calculation of staff's and public's external exposure for individual scenarios. Several other parallel papers proposed for HND2012 are presenting selected details of the project.(author).

Reservoir release patterns for hydropower operations at the Aspinall Unit on the Gunnison River, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin, S.C.L.; Sedlacek, J.

1995-05-01

This report presents the development of reservoir release patterns for the Aspinall Unit, which includes Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Reservoirs on the Gunnison River in Colorado. Release patterns were assessed for two hydropower operational scenarios--seasonally adjusted steady flows and seasonally adjusted high fluctuating flows--and three representative hydrologic years--moderate (1987), dry (1989), and wet (1983). The release patterns for the operational scenarios were developed with the aid of monthly, daily, and hourly reservoir operational models, which simulate the linked operation of the three Aspinall Unit reservoirs. Also presented are reservoir fluctuations and downstream water surface elevations corresponding to the reservoir release patterns. Both of the hydropower operational scenarios evaluated are based on the ecological research flows proposed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service for the Aspinall Unit. The first operational scenario allows only seasonally adjusted steady flows (no hourly fluctuations at any dam within one day), whereas the second scenario permits high fluctuating flows from Blue Mesa and Morrow Point Reservoirs during certain times of the year. Crystal Reservoir would release a steady flow within each day under both operational scenarios

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, Marc

2015-04-21

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

Analytical methodology for optimization of waste management scenarios in nuclear installation decommissioning process - 16148

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachar, Matej; Necas, Vladimir; Daniska, Vladimir; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek

2009-01-01

The nuclear installation decommissioning process is characterized by production of large amount of various radioactive and non-radioactive waste that has to be managed, taking into account its physical, chemical, toxic and radiological properties. Waste management is considered to be one of the key issues within the frame of the decommissioning process. During the decommissioning planning period, the scenarios covering possible routes of materials release into the environment and radioactive waste disposal, should be discussed and evaluated. Unconditional and conditional release to the environment, long-term storage at the nuclear site, near surface or deep geological disposal and relevant material management techniques for achieving the final status should be taken into account in the analysed scenarios. At the level of the final decommissioning plan, it is desirable to have the waste management scenario optimized for local specific facility conditions taking into account a national decommissioning background. The analytical methodology for the evaluation of decommissioning waste management scenarios, presented in the paper, is based on the materials and radioactivity flow modelling, which starts from waste generation activities like pre-dismantling decontamination, selected methods of dismantling, waste treatment and conditioning, up to materials release or conditioned radioactive waste disposal. The necessary input data for scenarios, e.g. nuclear installation inventory database (physical and radiological data), waste processing technologies parameters or material release and waste disposal limits, have to be considered. The analytical methodology principles are implemented into the standardised decommissioning parameters calculation code OMEGA, developed in the DECOM company. In the paper the examples of the methodology implementation for the scenarios optimization are presented and discussed. (authors)

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

2007-01-01

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios constructed for nominal flow in the presence of a repository at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Hunter, R.L.; Dunn, E.; Flint, A.

1995-03-01

Scenario development for the system performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project defines a scenario as a well-posed problem connecting an initiating event with radionuclide release to the accessible environment by a logical and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes. Drawing on the advice and assistance of the Project's principal investigators (PIs), a collection of release scenarios initiated by the nominal ground-water flow occurring in the vicinity of the potential Yucca Mountain high-level-waste repository is developed and described in pictorial form. This collection of scenarios is intended to provide a framework to assist PIs in recognizing essential field and calculational analyses, to assist performance assessment in providing guidance to site characterization, and to continue the effort to exhaustively identify all features, events, and processes important to releases. It represents a step in the iterative process of identifying what details of the potential site are important for safe disposal. 67 refs

Analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under design loading scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardi, D., E-mail: davide.bernardi@enea.it [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy); Arena, P.; Bongiovì, G.; Di Maio, P.A. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Palermo (Italy); Frisoni, M. [ENEA Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, Bologna (Italy); Miccichè, G.; Serra, M. [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy)

2015-10-15

In the framework of the IFMIF Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities (IFMIF/EVEDA) phase, ENEA is responsible for the design of the European concept of the IFMIF lithium target system which foresees the possibility to periodically replace only the most irradiated and thus critical component (i.e., the backplate) while continuing to operate the rest of the target for a longer period (the so-called bayonet backplate concept). In this work, the results of the steady state thermomechanical analysis of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under two different design loading scenarios (a “hot” scenario and a “cold” scenario) are briefly reported highlighting the relevant indications obtained with respect to the fulfillment of the design requirements. In particular, the analyses have shown that in the hot scenario the temperatures reached in the target assembly are within the material acceptable limits while in the cold scenario transition below the ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) cannot be excluded. Moreover, results indicate that the contact between backplate and high flux test module is avoided and that the overall structural integrity of the system is assured in both scenarios. However, stress linearization analysis reveals that ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) design rules are not always met along the selected paths at backplate middle plane section in the hot scenario, thus suggesting the need of a revision of the backplate design or a change of the operating conditions.

The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

2016-01-01

This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakkes, J.; Potting, J.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P.; Masui, T.; Rana, A.; Nellemann, C.; Rothman, D.

2004-01-01

The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?

A scenario-driven approach for value, risk and cost analysis in system architecting for innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ionita, M.T.; America, P.H.M.; Hammer, D.K.; Obbink, J.H.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Magee, J.; Szyperski, C.; Bosch, J.

2004-01-01

We present a quantitative method for scenario-driven value, risk, and cost analysis when proposing new system architectures for innovation projects. The method helps to articulate the relative benefits and/or disadvantages of the proposed set of scenarios in the early architecting phases of a new

Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

2006-01-01

The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

2009-01-01

This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

Development, description and validation of a Tritium Environmental Release Model (TERM).

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffers, Rebecca S; Parker, Geoffrey T

2014-01-01

Tritium is a radioisotope of hydrogen that exists naturally in the environment and may also be released through anthropogenic activities. It bonds readily with hydrogen and oxygen atoms to form tritiated water, which then cycles through the hydrosphere. This paper seeks to model the migration of tritiated species throughout the environment - including atmospheric, river and coastal systems - more comprehensively and more consistently across release scenarios than is currently in the literature. A review of the features and underlying conceptual models of some existing tritium release models was conducted, and an underlying aggregated conceptual process model defined, which is presented. The new model, dubbed 'Tritium Environmental Release Model' (TERM), was then tested against multiple validation sets from literature, including experimental data and reference tests for tritium models. TERM has been shown to be capable of providing reasonable results which are broadly comparable with atmospheric HTO release models from the literature, spanning both continuous and discrete release conditions. TERM also performed well when compared with atmospheric data. TERM is believed to be a useful tool for examining discrete and continuous atmospheric releases or combinations thereof. TERM also includes further capabilities (e.g. river and coastal release scenarios) that may be applicable to certain scenarios that atmospheric models alone may not handle well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the additional fission product release phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeda, Tsuneo; Nagai, Hitoshi

1978-09-01

The additional fission product release behavior through a defect hole on the cladding of fuel rods has been studied qualitatively with a computer program CODAC-ARFP. The additional fission product release phenomena are described as qualitative evaluation. The additional fission product release behavior in coolant temperature and pressure fluctuations and in reactor start-up and shut-down depends on coolant water flow behavior into and from the free space of fuel rods through a defect hole. Based on the results of evaluations, the experimental results with an inpile water loop OWL-1 are described in detail. The estimation methods of fission product quantity in the free space and fission product release ratio (quantity released into the coolant/quantity in the free space before beginning of release) are necessary for analysis of the fission product release behavior; the estimation method of water flow through a defect hole is also necessary. In development of the above estimation methods, outpile and capsule experiments supporting the additional fission product release experiments are required. (author)

Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

Science.gov (United States)

Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

2011-04-01

Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

2016-01-01

identification, description of accident scenarios and using the conventional approach to develop static event trees for events following a loss of containment. Modelling the impacts and consequences needs models to describe the release, dispersion and effect of the hazardous material, as well as models...

Analysis of Relay Selection Game in a Cooperative Communication Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Craciunescu, Razvan; Mihovska, Albena; Halunga, Simona

This paper analysis the performances of a proposed set of functions that model the relay selection process in a cooperative communication scenario. The behavior and influence proposed functions create a mechanism for selecting the best relays to be used to send certain types of data. The mechanism...... of comparison between the bit error rate of the proposed mechanism and the direct communication....

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - utility for the fire brigades.

Science.gov (United States)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-09-01

Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios”), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Viennese fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program of the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. For the purpose of our study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Trace (Safer System), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer). A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed, with the models above, in order to predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. Furthermore, the application of the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in case of toxic release was

Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gavin Hawkley

2010-07-01

This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

Analysis of 38 GHz mmWave Propagation Characteristics of Urban Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

2015-01-01

The 38 GHz mm-wave frequency band is a strong candidate for the future deployment of wireless systems. Compared to lower frequency bands, propagation in the 38 GHz band is relatively unexplored for access networks in urban scenarios. This paper presents a detailed measurement-based analysis of ur...

Models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities

CERN Document Server

Vojtyla, P

2005-01-01

The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the Safety Commission, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calculations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the Safety Commission.

Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

1998-01-01

It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cyril Montabert

2007-02-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bakkes, J.; Potting, J. (eds.) [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Henrichs, T. [Center for Environmental Systems Research CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel (Germany); Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute SEI, Boston, MA (United States); Masui, T.; Rana, A. [National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES, Ibaraki (Japan); Nellemann, C. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, GRID Global and Regional Integrated Data centres Arendal, Lillehammer (Norway); Rothman, D. [International Centre for Integrative Studies ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

2004-07-01

The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?.

COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Valeriu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

2018-05-01

The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

Conductive plastics: comparing alternative nanotechnologies by performance and life cycle release probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neubauer, Nicole; Wohlleben, Wendel, E-mail: wendel.wohlleben@basf.com [Material Physics, GMC/R, BASF SE (Germany); Tomović, Željko, E-mail: zeljko.tomovic@basf.com [BASF Polyurethanes GmbH, GMP/LS (Germany)

2017-03-15

Nanocomposites can be considered safe during their life cycle as long as the nanofillers remain embedded in the matrix. Therefore, a possible release of nanofillers has to be assessed before commercialization. This report addresses possible life cycle release scenarios for carbon nanotubes (CNT), graphene, and carbon black (CB) from a thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) matrix. The content of each nanofiller was adjusted to achieve the same conductivity level. The nanofillers reduced the rate of nanoscale releases during mechanical processing with decreasing release in the order neat TPU, TPU-CNT, TPU-graphene, and TPU-CB. Released fragments were dominated by the polymer matrix with embedded or surface-protruding nanofillers. During electron microscopy analysis, free CB was observed, however, there was no free CNT or graphene. Quantitatively, the presence of free nanofillers remained below the detection limit of <0.01% of generated dust. Further, both the production process and type of mechanical processing showed a significant impact with higher release rates for injection-molded compared to extruded and sanded compared to drilled materials. Due to its optimal performance for further development, extruded TPU-CNT was investigated in a combined, stepwise worst case scenario (mechanical processing after weathering). After weathering by simulated sunlight and rain, CNT were visible at the surface of the nanocomposite; after additional sanding, fragments showed protruding CNT, but free CNT were not detected. In summary, this preliminary exposure assessment showed no indication that recommended occupational exposure limits for carbonaceous nanomaterials can be exceeded during the life cycle of the specific TPU nanocomposites and conditions investigated in this study.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Time scales of solar microwave bursts and scenarios of flare enregy release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger, A.; Kliem, B.; Hildebrandt, J.

1989-01-01

Based on earlier observational evidence that characteristic time scales of different solar microwave burst types are distributed over a wide range (10 -3 -10 4 sec), different mechanisms of energy release have been considered to account for the impulsive flux increase (time scale 3 sec). Among different competing processes the coalescence instability is found to be a promising candidate to combine sufficiently short time scales with substantial energy release. (author). 20 refs.; 1 fig

Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

2012-01-01

on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

2015-01-01

In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

2012-12-01

Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

A probabilistic analysis of rapid boron dilution scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Diamond, D.J.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic and deterministic analysis of a rapid boron dilution scenario related to reactor restart was performed. The event is initiated by a loss of off-site power during the startup dilution process. The automatic restart of the charging pump in such cases may lead to the accumulation of a diluted slug of water in the lower plenum. The restart of the reactor coolant pumps may send the diluted slug through the core, adding sufficient reactivity to overcome the shutdown margin and cause a power excursion. The concern is that the power excursion is sufficient in certain circumstances to cause fuel damage. The estimated core damage frequency based on the scoping analysis is 1.0--3.0E-05/yr for the plants analyzed. These are relatively significant values when compared to desirable goals. The analysis contained assumptions related to plant specific design characteristics which may lead to non-conservative estimates. The most important conservative assumptions were that mixing of the injected diluted water is insignificant and that fuel damage occurs when the slug passes through the core

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

2015-05-12

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

Approach toward development of release standards for D and D cleanup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S. Y.

1999-01-01

The release of materials containing residual radioactivity from a controlled environment in decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) activities has been problematic. The primary impediment to such a release is the lack of a suitable framework within which release standards can be developed. The concept of clearance for radioactive materials was recently introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (l). This concept is being evaluated by the international regulatory communities as a basis for setting standards for releasing from control solid materials containing residual radioactivity. Accordingly, both the IAEA (2) and the European Commission (EC) (3) have recently proposed clearance standards. In the US, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has just begun its rule-making process on clearance. The term ''clearance'' was introduced as a regulatory process for releasing radioactive materials posing negligible risks. A trivial risk level has been determined to be a 10 -6 to 10 -7 annual risk to an exposed individual, and a population risk of no more than 0.1 for an annual practice. Under these strict constraints, exposure scenarios would be developed to estimate potential doses to affected individuals. Such scenarios may account for processing, disposal, and product end-use of materials. This paper discusses these scenarios and also describes the technical basis for deriving release levels under the suggested risk for dose constraints

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Summary of four release consequence analyses for hypothetical nuclear waste repositories in salt and granite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.

1980-12-01

Release consequence methology developed under the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) program has now been applied to four hypothetical repository sites. This paper summarizes the results of these four studies in order to demonstrate that the far-field methodology developed under the AEGIS program offers a practical approach to the post-closure safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories sited in deep continental geologic formations. The four studies are briefly described and compared according to the following general categories: physical description of the repository (size, inventory, emplacement depth); geologic and hydrologic description of the site and the conceptual hydrologic model for the site; description of release scenario; hydrologic model implementation and results; engineered barriers and leach rate modeling; transport model implementation and results; and dose model implementation and results. These studies indicate the following: numerical modeling is a practical approach to post-closure safety assessment analysis for nuclear waste repositories; near-field modeling capability needs improvement to permit assessment of the consequences of human intrusion and pumping well scenarios; engineered barrier systems can be useful in mitigating consequences for postulated release scenarios that short-circuit the geohydrologic system; geohydrologic systems separating a repository from the natural biosphere discharge sites act to mitigate the consequences of postulated breaches in containment; and engineered barriers of types other than the containment or absorptive type may be useful

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathieu, Mathilde

2013-01-01

This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

Worst-case Throughput Analysis for Parametric Rate and Parametric Actor Execution Time Scenario-Aware Dataflow Graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mladen Skelin

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenario-aware dataflow (SADF is a prominent tool for modeling and analysis of dynamic embedded dataflow applications. In SADF the application is represented as a finite collection of synchronous dataflow (SDF graphs, each of which represents one possible application behaviour or scenario. A finite state machine (FSM specifies the possible orders of scenario occurrences. The SADF model renders the tightest possible performance guarantees, but is limited by its finiteness. This means that from a practical point of view, it can only handle dynamic dataflow applications that are characterized by a reasonably sized set of possible behaviours or scenarios. In this paper we remove this limitation for a class of SADF graphs by means of SADF model parametrization in terms of graph port rates and actor execution times. First, we formally define the semantics of the model relevant for throughput analysis based on (max,+ linear system theory and (max,+ automata. Second, by generalizing some of the existing results, we give the algorithms for worst-case throughput analysis of parametric rate and parametric actor execution time acyclic SADF graphs with a fully connected, possibly infinite state transition system. Third, we demonstrate our approach on a few realistic applications from digital signal processing (DSP domain mapped onto an embedded multi-processor architecture.

Effect of RCIC Operating Conditions on the Accident Scenario in Fukushima Unit 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Il; Park, Jong Hwa; Ha, Kwang Soon

2015-01-01

This study was conducted by using MELCOR 1.8.6. Fukushima unit 2 accident was analyzed using MELCOR in this study, and best estimate scenario with considering RCIC operating conditions was presented. Researches on the boiling water reactor (BWR) plant with reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system have been conducted. Research on the RCIC operation in Fukushima unit 2 was also conducted by Sandia National Laboratory. MELCOR analysis of the Fukushima unit 2 accident was conducted in the report and energy balance in wetwell was described by considering RCIC operation. However, the effect of RCIC operation condition on the accident scenario has not been studied. The operating conditions of RCIC system affect the pressures in wetwell and drywell, and the high pressure can make leakage path of fission product from PCV to reactor building. Thus it can be directly related with the amount of fission product which released to environment. In this study, severe accident on Fukushima unit 2 was analyzed considering the operating condition of RCIC system, and best estimated scenario was presented. In addition, the effect of RCIC turbine efficiency on the accident progression was examined. Energy balance in suppression chamber was also considered with discussion on the effect of torus room flooding level. It was found that the operating condition of RCIC turbine not only affects the variation of drywell pressure but also the amount of released fission products to environment. It was also confirmed that the RCIC turbine efficiency in the accident would be less than normal operating condition

Methodology of external exposure calculation for reuse of conditional released materials from decommissioning - 59138

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondra, Frantisek; Vasko, Marek; Necas, Vladimir

2012-01-01

The article presents methodology of external exposure calculation for reuse of conditional released materials from decommissioning using VISIPLAN 3D ALARA planning tool. Production of rails has been used as an example application of proposed methodology within the CONRELMAT project. The article presents a methodology for determination of radiological, material, organizational and other conditions for conditionally released materials reuse to ensure that workers and public exposure does not breach the exposure limits during scenario's life cycle (preparation, construction and operation of scenario). The methodology comprises a proposal of following conditions in the view of workers and public exposure: - radionuclide limit concentration of conditionally released materials for specific scenarios and nuclide vectors, - specific deployment of conditionally released materials eventually shielding materials, workers and public during the scenario's life cycle, - organizational measures concerning time of workers or public stay in the vicinity on conditionally released materials for individual performed scenarios and nuclide vectors. The above mentioned steps of proposed methodology have been applied within the CONRELMAT project. Exposure evaluation of workers for rail production is introduced in the article as an example of this application. Exposure calculation using VISIPLAN 3D ALARA planning tool was done within several models. The most exposed profession for scenario was identified. On the basis of this result, an increase of radionuclide concentration in conditional released material was proposed more than two times to 681 Bq/kg without no additional safety or organizational measures being applied. After application of proposed safety and organizational measures (additional shielding, geometry changes and limitation of work duration) it is possible to increase concentration of radionuclide in conditional released material more than ten times to 3092 Bq/kg. Storage

Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

2007-02-15

A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics.

Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

2007-02-01

A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics

Hydrogen release from irradiated elastomers measured by Nuclear Reaction Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jagielski, J., E-mail: jacek.jagielski@itme.edu.pl [Institute for Electronic Materials Technology, Wolczynska 133, 01-926 Warszawa (Poland); National Centre for Nuclear Research, A. Soltana 7, 05-400 Swierk/Otwock (Poland); Ostaszewska, U. [Institute for Engineering of Polymer Materials & Dyes, Division of Elastomers & Rubber Technology, Harcerska 30, 05-820 Piastow (Poland); Bielinski, D.M. [Technical University of Lodz, Institute of Polymer & Dye Technology, Stefanowskiego 12/16, 90-924 Lodz (Poland); Grambole, D. [Institute of Ion Beam Physics and Materials Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf, PO Box 51 01 19, D-01314 Dresden (Germany); Romaniec, M.; Jozwik, I.; Kozinski, R. [Institute for Electronic Materials Technology, Wolczynska 133, 01-926 Warszawa (Poland); Kosinska, A. [National Centre for Nuclear Research, A. Soltana 7, 05-400 Swierk/Otwock (Poland)

2016-03-15

Ion irradiation appears as an interesting method of modification of elastomers, especially friction and wear properties. Main structural effect caused by heavy ions is a massive loss of hydrogen from the surface layer leading to its smoothening and shrinking. The paper presents the results of hydrogen release from various elastomers upon irradiation with H{sup +}, He{sup +} and Ar{sup +} studied by using Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA) method. The analysis of the experimental data indicates that the hydrogen release is controlled by inelastic collisions between ions and target electrons. The last part of the study was focused on preliminary analysis of mechanical properties of irradiated rubbers.

Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

A cognitive task analysis of the SGTR scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollnagel, E.; Edland, A.; Svenson, O.

1996-04-01

This report constitutes a contribution to the NKS/RAK-1:3 project on Integrated Sequence Analysis. Following the meeting at Ringhals, the work was proposed to be performed by the following three steps: Task 1. Cognitive Task Analysis of the E-3 procedure. Task 2. Evaluation and revision of task analysis with Ringhals/KSU experts. Task 3. Integration with simulator data. The Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) of Task 1 uses the Goals-Means Task Analysis (GMTA) method to identify the sequence of tasks and task steps necessary to achieve the goals of the procedure. It is based on material supplied by Ringhals, which describes the E-3 procedure, including the relevant ES and ECA procedures. The analysis further outlines the cognitive demands profile associated with individual task steps as well as with the task as a whole, as an indication of the nominal task load. The outcome of the cognitive task analysis provides a basis for proposing an adequate event tree. This report describes the results from Task 1. The work has included a two-day meeting between the three contributors, as well as the exchange of intermediate results and comments throughout the period. After the initial draft of the report was prepared, an opportunity was given to observe the SGTR scenario in a full-scope training simulator, and to discuss the details with the instructors. This led to several improvements from the initial draft. (EG)

[GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

2004-07-01

The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

2015 TRI National Analysis: Toxics Release Inventory Releases at Various Summary Levels

Science.gov (United States)

The TRI National Analysis is EPA's annual interpretation of TRI data at various summary levels. It highlights how toxic chemical wastes were managed, where toxic chemicals were released and how the 2015 TRI data compare to data from previous years. This dataset reports US state, county, large aquatic ecosystem, metro/micropolitan statistical area, and facility level statistics from 2015 TRI releases, including information on: number of 2015 TRI facilities in the geographic area and their releases (total, water, air, land); population information, including populations living within 1 mile of TRI facilities (total, minority, in poverty); and Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) model related pounds, toxicity-weighted pounds, and RSEI score. The source of administrative boundary data is the 2013 cartographic boundary shapefiles. Location of facilities is provided by EPA's Facility Registry Service (FRS). Large Aquatic Ecosystems boundaries were dissolved from the hydrologic unit boundaries and codes for the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It was revised for inclusion in the National Atlas of the United States of America (November 2002), and updated to match the streams file created by the USGS National Mapping Division (NMD) for the National Atlas of the United States of America.

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1991-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Potential release scenario and radiological consequence evaluation of mineral resources at WIPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Little, M.S.

1982-05-01

This report has reviewed certain of the natural resources which may be found at the site of the nuclear waste repository being considered for southeastern New Mexico, and discussed the scenarios which have been used to estimate the radiological consequences from the mining of these resources several hundred years after the radioactive waste has been emplaced. It has been concluded that the radiological consequences of the mining of potash or hydrocarbons (mostly natural gas) are probably bounded by the consequences of hydrologic breach scenarios already considered by the US Department of Energy, and by reports of EEG. These studies conclude that the resultant doses would not constitute a significant threat to public health. This report also evaluates the radiological consequences of solution mining of halite at the WIPP site. Although such mining in the Delaware Basin and particularly at the WIPP site, is not likely at the present time, significant economic, social or climatic changes a few hundred years after emplacement may make these resources more attractive. The DOE did not consider such mining at the site credible

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

2016-06-08

This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

Using the baseline environmental management report (BEMR) to examine alternate program scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristofferson, K.

1995-01-01

The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) released the first Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) in March, 1995. The Congressionally-mandated report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete DOE's Environmental Management Program. This ''base case'' estimate is based on current program assumptions and the most likely set of activities. However, since the future course of the Environmental Management Program depends upon a number of fundamental technical and policy choices, alternate program scenarios were developed. These alternate cases show the potential cost impacts of changing assumptions in four key areas: future land use, program funding and scheduling, technology development, and waste management configurations. Several cost and program evaluation tools were developed to support the analysis of these alternate cases. The objective of this paper is to describe the analytical tool kit developed to support the development of the 1995 Baseline Report and to discuss the application of these tools to evaluate alternate program scenarios

Analysis of Institutional Press Releases and its Visibility in the Press

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Antonio Alcoceba-Hernando, Ph.D.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The relationships between institutional communication and media communication influence the shaping of social representations of public issues. This research article analyses these relationships based on the case study of the external communication of a public institution, the press releases of Spain’s Youth Institute (Instituto de la Juventud, aka, Injuve, during three years and their repercussion in the press during the same period of time. The results obtained in this research allowed drawing conclusions on the types of communication production of the aforementioned institution and the news treatment of such pieces of information by the printed and digital media. The press releases and the news items were studied using quantitative media content analysis which focused, especially, in referential issues like the information treatment, the thematic analysis, youth representations in the case of the releases; and the visibility of the press releases in the making of news

Analysis of the NIST database towards the composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; van Keulen, Maurice

The composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios has been traditionally performed based on detailed pre- and post-conditions. Although very precise, this approach is dependent on human analysis, is time consuming, and not at all scalable. We investigate the NIST National Vulnerability Database

Contingency analysis modeling for superfund sites and other sources. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, D.; Kaiser, G.D.

1993-01-01

The report provides information on contingency modeling for a wide range of different accidental release scenarios of hazardous air pollutants that might take place at Superfund and other sites. The scenarios are used to illustrate how atmospheric dispersion models, including dense gas models, should be applied. Particular emphasis is made on the input data that is needed for proper applications of models. Flow charts direct the user to specific sections where various scenarios are discussed. A check list of items that should be discussed before running the model is provided. Several examples are provided to specifically show how to apply the models so as to produce a credible analysis for a particular release scenario

Comparative Analysis of Single and Dual Irradiation Pass of Deep Burn High Temperature Reactor Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Chang Joon; Jo, Chang Keun; Noh, Jae Man

2012-01-01

A concept of a deep-burn (DB) of trans uranic (TRU) elements in a high temperature reactor (HTR) has been proposed and studied with a single irradiation pass. However, there is still a significant amount of TRU after burn in an HTR. Therefore, it is necessary to burn more TRU in a fast reactor (FR) with repeated reprocessing such as a pyro-process. In this study, the fuel cycle calculations are performed and the results are compared for a singlepass DB-HHR scenario and a dual-pass sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) scenario. For the analysis, front-end and back-end parameters are compared. The calculations were performed by the DANESS (Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Energy System Strategies), which is an integrated system dynamic fuel cycle analysis code

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

A scenario analysis of the future residential requirements for people with mental health problems in Eindhoven.

Science.gov (United States)

Bierbooms, Joyce J P A; Bongers, Inge M B; van Oers, Hans A M

2011-01-06

Despite large-scale investments in mental health care in the community since the 1990 s, a trend towards reinstitutionalization has been visible since 2002. Since many mental health care providers regard this as an undesirable trend, the question arises: In the coming 5 years, what types of residence should be organized for people with mental health problems? The purpose of this article is to provide mental health care providers, public housing corporations, and local government with guidelines for planning organizational strategy concerning types of residence for people with mental health problems. A scenario analysis was performed in four steps: 1) an exploration of the external environment; 2) the identification of key uncertainties; 3) the development of scenarios; 4) the translation of scenarios into guidelines for planning organizational strategy. To explore the external environment a document study was performed, and 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted. During a workshop, a panel of experts identified two key uncertainties in the external environment, and formulated four scenarios. The study resulted in four scenarios: 1) Integrated and independent living in the community with professional care; 2) Responsible healthcare supported by society; 3) Differentiated provision within the walls of the institution; 4) Residence in large-scale institutions but unmet need for care. From the range of aspects within the different scenarios, the panel was able to work out concrete guidelines for planning organizational strategy. In the context of residence for people with mental health problems, the focus should be on investment in community care and their re-integration into society. A joint effort is needed to achieve this goal. This study shows that scenario analysis leads to useful guidelines for planning organizational strategy in mental health care.

An approach for estimating toxic releases of H2S-containing natural gas.

Science.gov (United States)

Jianwen, Zhang; Da, Lei; Wenxing, Feng

2014-01-15

China is well known being rich in sulfurous natural gas with huge deposits widely distributed all over the country. Due to the toxic nature, the release of hydrogen sulfide-containing natural gas from the pipelines intends to impose serious threats to the human, society and environment around the release sources. CFD algorithm is adopted to simulate the dispersion process of gas, and the results prove that Gaussian plume model is suitable for determining the affected region of the well blowout of sulfide hydrogen-containing natural gas. In accordance with the analysis of release scenarios, the present study proposes a new approach for estimating the risk of hydrogen sulfide poisoning hazards, as caused by sulfide-hydrogen-containing natural gas releases. Historical accident-statistical data from the EGIG (European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group) and the Britain Gas Transco are integrated into the approach. Also, the dose-load effect is introduced to exploit the hazards' effects by two essential parameters - toxic concentration and exposure time. The approach was applied to three release scenarios occurring on the East-Sichuan Gas Transportation Project, and the individual risk and societal risk are classified and discussed. Results show that societal risk varies significantly with different factors, including population density, distance from pipeline, operating conditions and so on. Concerning the dispersion process of hazardous gas, available safe egress time was studied from the perspective of individual fatality risks. The present approach can provide reliable support for the safety management and maintenance of natural gas pipelines as well as evacuations that may occur after release incidents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

2007-01-01

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1990-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

Detailed analysis of the bundle damage scenario in the PHEBUS FPT0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Rae Joon; Kim, Sang Baik; Kim, Hee Dong; Yoo, Kun Joong

1998-03-01

The PHEBUS FP program and the test facility have been investigated, and the late phase melt progression in the PHEBUS FPT0 has been analyzed in the present study. The objectives of this program are to investigate fission product (FP) release and this program consists of six in-pile tests, which are FPT0, FPT1, FPT4, FPT2, FPT5, and FPT3, under different thermal hydraulic and fuel rod environment conditions. The first test, FPT0, was performed in December 1993, and the second test, FPT1, was performed in July 1996. The present study has been performed to evaluate a late phase damage scenario of the fuel bundle using the FPT0 test results, which are primarily a non-destructive Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) and a destructive PIE. The fuel bundle degradation scenario is summarized as follows: the fuel rod cladding failed at approximately 7,000 seconds; the control rod materials ruptured at 11,000 seconds; the stainless-steel reaction occurs at approximately 12,100 seconds; the upper fuel bundle materials melted and relocated to the elevation between 35 and 45 cm at the period between 14,750 and 15,200 seconds; the molten pool and the debris were formed at the elevation between 26 and 36 cm at the period between 15,200 and 18,100 seconds; the molten pool and the debris dropped the elevation between 15 and 25 cm from the bfc at approximately 18,100 seconds; the molten pool was finally quenched by the injected steam. (author). 45 refs., 10 tabs., 73 figs

TOXRISK, Toxic Gas Release Accident Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, D.E.; Chanin, D.I.; Shiver, A.W.

1993-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: TOXRISK is an interactive program developed to aid in the evaluation of nuclear power plant control room habitability in the event of a nearby toxic material release. The program uses a model which is consistent with the approach described in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78. Release of the gas is treated as an initial puff followed by a continuous plume. The relative proportions of these as well as the plume release rate are supplied by the user. Transport of the gas is modeled as a Gaussian distribution and occurs through the action of a constant velocity, constant direction wind. Great flexibility is afforded the user in specifying the release description, meteorological conditions, relative geometry of the accident and plant, and the plant ventilation system characteristics. Two types of simulation can be performed: multiple case (parametric) studies and probabilistic analyses. Upon execution, TOXRISK presents a menu, and the user chooses between the Data Base Manager, the Multiple Case program, and the Probabilistic Study Program. The Data Base Manager provides a convenient means of storing, retrieving, and modifying blocks of data required by the analysis programs. The Multiple Case program calculates resultant gas concentrations inside the control room and presents a summary of information that describes the event for each set of conditions given. Optimally, a time history profile of inside and outside concentrations can also be produced. The Probabilistic Study program provides a means for estimating the annual probability of operator incapacitation due to toxic gas accidents on surrounding transportation routes and storage sites. 2 - Method of solution: Dispersion or diffusion of the gas during transport is described by modified Pasquill-Gifford dispersion coefficients

Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fidje, Audun

2008-07-01

This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

Investigation of Local Hydrogen Risk in the RDT Compartment of OPR1000 under SBO Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Nam Kyung; Jeon, Joon Goo; Choi, Won Jun; Song, Kyu Sang; Jeun, Gyoo Dong; Kim, Sung Joong

2016-01-01

As TMI-2 and Fukushima accidents revealed, a high concentration of hydrogen in a nuclear power plant (NPP) could cause hydrogen combustion. In order to take follow-up measures, an average and local hydrogen concentration in the NPP containment are regulated below 0.1 using hydrogen mitigation system such as igniter and/or passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR). During a severe accident, some compartments of the NPP containment temporarily may show peaks of the local hydrogen concentration over 0.1 depending on the geometry of the containment structure and hydrogen transportation path. For example, the compartment of a reactor drain tank (RDT) is connected to the pressurizer nozzle and if the relieved pressure drives the significant amount of steam and hydrogen, then substantial peaks of the hydrogen concentration can occur. Before the RPV failure under SBO scenario, the RDT compartment was the main region for hydrogen release due to the RDT break. Therefore, confirming the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment is very important to verify the integrity of the NPP containment. In this study, the local hydrogen risk in the RDT compartment of OPR1000 under SBO scenario was evaluated using MELCOR 1.8.6 code in terms of the hydrogen volume fraction and the Shapiro diagram. (1) The RDT compartment showed the peaks of the hydrogen volume fraction over 0.1. As a future work, the local hydrogen risk of the compartment of a steam generator (SG) needs to be analyzed under SBLOCA scenario. Because the SG compartment is also a main region of hydrogen release under SBLOCA scenario. In the long run, the analysis for the detailed hydrogen distribution, based on detailed modeling of the whole OPR1000 containment, needs to be performed.

Examination of Conservatism in Ground-level Source Release Assumption when Performing Consequence Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

One of these assumptions frequently assumed is the assumption of ground-level source release. The user manual of a consequence analysis software HotSpot is mentioning like below: 'If you cannot estimate or calculate the effective release height, the actual physical release height (height of the stack) or zero for ground-level release should be used. This will usually yield a conservative estimate, (i.e., larger radiation doses for all downwind receptors, etc).' This recommendation could be agreed in aspect of conservatism but quantitative examination of the effect of this assumption to the result of consequence analysis is necessary. The source terms of Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident have been estimated by several studies using inverse modeling and one of the biggest sources of the difference between the results of these studies was different effective source release height assumed by each studies. It supports the importance of the quantitative examination of the influence by release height. Sensitivity analysis of the effective release height of radioactive sources was performed and the influence to the total effective dose was quantitatively examined in this study. Above 20% difference is maintained even at longer distances, when we compare the dose between the result assuming ground-level release and the results assuming other effective plume height. It means that we cannot ignore the influence of ground-level source assumption to the latent cancer fatality estimations. In addition, the assumption of ground-level release fundamentally prevents detailed analysis including diffusion of plume from effective plume height to the ground even though the influence of it is relatively lower in longer distance. When we additionally consider the influence of surface roughness, situations could be more serious. The ground level dose could be highly over-estimated in short downwind distance at the NPP sites which have low surface roughness such as Barakah site in

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

2010-01-01

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

2010-07-15

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

2015-01-01

Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

Possibilities and Limitations of CFD Simulation for Flashing Flow Scenarios in Nuclear Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yixiang Liao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The flashing phenomenon is relevant to nuclear safety analysis, for example by a loss of coolant accident and safety release scenarios. It has been studied intensively by means of experiments and simulations with system codes, but computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulation is still at the embryonic stage. Rapid increasing computer speed makes it possible to apply the CFD technology in such complex flow situations. Nevertheless, a thorough evaluation on the limitations and restrictions is still missing, which is however indispensable for reliable application, as well as further development. In the present work, the commonly-used two-fluid model with different mono-disperse assumptions is used to simulate various flashing scenarios. With the help of available experimental data, the results are evaluated, and the limitations are discussed. A poly-disperse method is found necessary for a reliable prediction of mean bubble size and phase distribution. The first attempts to trace the evolution of the bubble size distribution by means of poly-disperse simulations are made.

Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

2013-01-01

This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 and CONTEMPT-LT code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. The analytical method of un-uniform flow behavior among the SG U-tubes, which affects the natural circulation flow rate, is developed. (author)

Relocation impacts of a major release from SRTC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, A.; Thompson, E.A.; Thompson, J.M.

1999-01-01

The relocation impacts of an accidental release, scenario 1-RD-3 , are evaluated for the Savannah River Technology Center. The extent of the area potentially contaminated to a level that would result in doses exceeding the relocation protective action guide(PAG)is calculated. The maximum calculated distance downwind from the accident at which the relocation PAG is exceeded is also determined. The consequences of the particulate portion of the release are evaluated using the HOTSPOT model and an EXCEL spreadsheet. The consequences of the tritium release are evaluated using UFOTRI

Application of the HGSYSTEM/UF6 model to simulate atmospheric dispersion of UF6 releases from uranium enrichment plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goode, W.D. Jr.; Bloom, S.G.; Keith, K.D. Jr.

1995-01-01

Uranium hexafluoride is a dense, reactive gas used in Gaseous Diffusion Plants (GDPs) to make uranium enriched in the 235 U isotope. Large quantities of UF 6 exist at the GDPs in the form of in-process gas and as a solid in storage cylinders; smaller amounts exist as hot liquid during transfer operations. If liquid UF 6 is released to the environment, it immediately flashes to a solid and a dense gas that reacts rapidly with water vapor in the air to form solid particles of uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride gas. Preliminary analyses were done on various accidental release scenarios to determine which scenarios must be considered in the safety analyses for the GDPS. These scenarios included gas releases due to failure of process equipment and liquid/gas releases resulting from a breach of transfer piping from a cylinder. A major goal of the calculations was to estimate the response time for mitigating actions in order to limit potential off-site consequences of these postulated releases. The HGSYSTEM/UF 6 code was used to assess the consequences of these release scenarios. Inputs were developed from release calculations which included two-phase, choked flow followed by expansion to atmospheric pressure. Adjustments were made to account for variable release rates and multiple release points. Superpositioning of outputs and adjustments for exposure time were required to evaluate consequences based on health effects due to exposures to uranium and HF at a specific location

An approach for estimating toxic releases of H{sub 2}S-containing natural gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jianwen, Zhang, E-mail: zhangjw@mail.buct.edu.cn [Lab of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China); Institute of Safety Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China); Da, Lei [Lab of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China); College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China); Wenxing, Feng [Pipeline Research Center of PetroChina Company Lmited, 51 Golden Road, Langfang 065000 (China)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Behavior of H{sub 2}S-containing natural gas exhibits appearance of neutral gas by CFD. • The poisoning hazards of H{sub 2}S by gas pipeline releases are successfully estimated. • An assessment method for available safe egress time is proposed. -- Abstract: China is well known being rich in sulfurous natural gas with huge deposits widely distributed all over the country. Due to the toxic nature, the release of hydrogen sulfide-containing natural gas from the pipelines intends to impose serious threats to the human, society and environment around the release sources. CFD algorithm is adopted to simulate the dispersion process of gas, and the results prove that Gaussian plume model is suitable for determining the affected region of the well blowout of sulfide hydrogen-containing natural gas. In accordance with the analysis of release scenarios, the present study proposes a new approach for estimating the risk of hydrogen sulfide poisoning hazards, as caused by sulfide-hydrogen-containing natural gas releases. Historical accident-statistical data from the EGIG (European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group) and the Britain Gas Transco are integrated into the approach. Also, the dose-load effect is introduced to exploit the hazards’ effects by two essential parameters – toxic concentration and exposure time. The approach was applied to three release scenarios occurring on the East-Sichuan Gas Transportation Project, and the individual risk and societal risk are classified and discussed. Results show that societal risk varies significantly with different factors, including population density, distance from pipeline, operating conditions and so on. Concerning the dispersion process of hazardous gas, available safe egress time was studied from the perspective of individual fatality risks. The present approach can provide reliable support for the safety management and maintenance of natural gas pipelines as well as evacuations that may occur after

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

2008-01-01

...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Development of test apparatus for fission product release from overheated fuel element

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takai, T.; Hirosawa, T.; Funabashi, H.; Miyahara, S.

1996-01-01

Evaluation of the source term released to environment under the accident conditions is important to the safety evaluation and design of reactor containment vessel. However, available data related to FBR source term are very limited, especially for the FPs release data from overheated FBR fuel. The present, source term evaluation of FBR is based on assumption from that of LWR. Though, this evaluation is very conservative. Evaluation large scale FBR source term using this method is result in extremely conservative and lead construction of large scale plant becomes doubtful from the viewpoints of cost and safety system. Though, it is necessary to evaluate source term from the realistic and rational scenario considering a characteristic of FBR. Preparation of FPs release experiment from irradiated fuel is going on to investigate the FPs release and transport and to develop the analysis code for in-vessel source term evaluation. Fabrication of this apparatus was started in 1992, and the installation was completed in 1994. This apparatus passed the facility inspection by Science and Technology Agency in March 1995. This apparatus consists of a high frequency induction furnace, thermal gradient tube (TGT), sintered metal filters, cold traps, gas-analyzer, γ-ray spectrometry system and so on. In the experiment, FPs release rate and behavior will be investigated using gamma-ray spectrogram and FP gas analysis. Physical and chemical composition of released FP would be investigated from FPs deposited profiles on TGT. Now, cold experiment using simulant FP materials are conducted. (author)

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

[Advantages and cost-benefit analysis of various teleradiology scenarios].

Science.gov (United States)

Heckermann, D; Wetekam, V; Hundt, W; Reiser, M

1997-04-01

With the increasing number of users and technical improvements, there are several application scenarios of teleradiology. To perform a cost-benefit analysis, an approach is presented, which focuses on both monetary and qualitative aspects. Process-related, qualitative and quantitative evaluations are described. The prestudy compares the radiological workflow before and after the introduction of a teleradiology system. A scoring model is part of the qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study focuses on costs and savings. Amortisation and a net present value of savings versus costs can be derived using dynamic investment methods. Savings can be achieved after a short time under ideal conditions, but there is no guarantee for a reimbursement for all systems.

Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

2009-01-01

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

LTE UE Energy Saving by Applying Carrier Aggregation in a HetNet Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauridsen, Mads; Wang, Hua; Mogensen, Preben

2013-01-01

In this work it is examined if downlink Carrier Aggregation (CA) can be used to save UE energy. A dual-receiver LTE release 10 UE is compared with a single-receiver LTE release 8 UE. The models are based on scaling of an existing LTE release 8 UE power model. The energy consumption of the UEs...... is examined in a Heterogeneous Network scenario consisting of macro and small cells. The unexpected conclusion is that CA UEs can save energy, compared to LTE release 8 UEs, if they, depending on cell load, experience a throughput gain of 20%. However if the UE throughput is unaltered the energy consumption...

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of 131 I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for 131 I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

OSCAAR calculations for the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Tomita, Kenichi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Inoue, Yoshihisa [Visible Information Center Inc., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

2000-10-01

This report presents the results obtained from the application of the accident consequence assessment code, called OSCAAR, developed in Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute to the Hanford dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS Theme 2 organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The scenario relates to an inadvertent release of {sup 131}I to atmosphere from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant on 2-5 September 1963. This exercise was used to test the atmospheric dispersion and deposition models and food chain transport models for {sup 131}I in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect both to the part of the assessment and to the overall assessment. The OSCAAR food chain model performed relatively well, while the atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations made using wind data at the release height and wind fields by simple interpolation of the surrounding surface wind data indicated limited capabilities. The Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity method linked with OSCAAR successfully demonstrated its usefulness in the scenario. The method presented here also allowed the determination of the parameters that have the most important impact in accident consequence assessments. (author)

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of analysis methodology for hot leg break mass and energy release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Jin Ho; Kim, Cheol Woo; Kwon, Young Min; Kim, Sook Kwan

1995-04-01

A study for the development of an analysis methodology for hot leg break mass and energy release is performed. For the blowdown period a modified CEFLASH-4A methodology is suggested. For the post blowdown period a modified CONTRAST boil-off model is suggested. By using these computer code improved mass and energy release data are generated. Also, a RELAP5/MOD3 analysis for finally the FLOOD-3 computer code has been modified for use in the analysis of hot leg break. The results of analysis using modified FLOOD-3 are reasonable as we expected and their trends are good. 66 figs., 8 tabs. (Author) .new

Uncertainty analysis for Ulysses safety evaluation report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1991-01-01

As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source---Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show that INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low

Scenario Planning Analysis for Startup Business Case Study: Kemilau Indonesia Magazine

OpenAIRE

Mulyanto, Frieta Miasari; Sunitiyoso, Yos

2013-01-01

This research explained about the application of scenario planning analysis as solution for Kemilau Indonesia Magazine (KIM) which was born from the opportunities as information and promotion media of tourism. As a new player, KIM has several internal and external issues that impact on its survival. The technique used in this method is to collect data and information to be analyzed in order to generate predictions as a preparation for decision making process. This method give an overview of e...

Analysis of Economical and Environmental Costs for the Selection of Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Scenarios through Multicriteria Analysis (ELECTRE Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorena De Medina-Salas

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Decision-making for the selection of treatment alternatives and landfilling of municipal solid waste (MSW is based on the experience and judgment of those management responsible, without considering multicriteria analysis. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to determine the treatment scenario and landfilling of MSW with the lowest environmental and economic costs in a medium-sized city. The methodology included the definition and data processing of the project (population, generation, and composition of MSW, for 16 years. In the design of scenarios, recycling, composting, incineration with energy recovery, and landfilling treatments were proposed; later, the combinations of treatments for each type of residue were generated. The results showed 36 scenarios, then the ELECTRE method was applied to the five with the lowest economical and environmental costs. Finally from the latter, one dominant scenario was determined: organic waste in composting; plastic, paper, and glass in recycling; and ‘others’ in landfilling. It is concluded that the final decision on the scenario is adapted to the particular conditions of the locality.

Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

2015-01-01

As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

European Union regulators and industry agree on improving specific environmental release categories: Report from the exchange network for exposure scenarios specific environmental release category workshop on May 13, 2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahrens, Andreas; Moilanen, Marianne; Martin, Sara; Garcia-John, Enrique; Sättler, Daniel; Bakker, Joost; Reihlen, Antonia; Wind, Thorsten; Tolls, Johannes

2017-09-01

Specific environmental release categories (SPERCs) are an instrument for lower-tier environmental emissions assessments. They support chemical safety assessments under the European Union (EU) regulation Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation, and Restriction of Chemicals. SPERCs have been developed by industry and subjected to regulatory review. Within the framework of the Chemical Safety Report/Exposure Scenario Roadmap, the EU Chemicals Agency (ECHA), the EU Member State authorities, and European industry sector associations collaborate to improve the quality of the SPERCs. Following up on the outcome of ECHA's SPERC Best Practice Project, industry, together with ECHA, developed an updated SPERC factsheet template and guidance on how to fill it out. In addition, industry developed 2 sets of SPERC factsheet examples and the corresponding SPERC background documents. These documents were submitted to a multistakeholder review process. The comments from the review were discussed at a workshop in spring 2016. The workshop participants acknowledged the revised factsheet format including the corresponding guidance, the 2 SPERC factsheets, and the 2 SPERC background documents as best practice examples. The package is expected to support further improvement of the quality of the SPERCs. A common understanding was achieved of the need to match the level of detail of the use conditions description with the risk to be controlled (i.e., the emission intensity and hazard profile of the substances) and with the level of conservatism of SPERC release factors. The complete and transparent documentation of the derivation of the release factors and of their conservatism is conceived as crucial for the credibility of the SPERCs, such that they can be trusted by partners in the chemicals supply chain and by regulators. To that end, background documents will include a dedicated section describing the conservatism of SPERCs. The workshop concluded with an outline of the practical way

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

1999-01-01

In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Power production feasibility analysis from landfill gas in Cruzeiro [SP, Brazil]: three different scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leticia de Oliveira Silva

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Solid wastes are related to diseases and environmental pollution, the need for greater knowledge of the waste composition and the best final disposal from this waste. The importance of the environmental sanitation can be observed in PNRS (national solid waste politics, which describes the need for urban cleaning and garbage collection, from the implementation of goals for better allocation of this waste. For the purpose of an overview of the solid waste produced in the city of Cruzeiro [State of Sao Paulo, Brazil], a projection and analysis of the construction of a landfill for the packaging of this waste, beginning by the year 2013, for a period of 20 years. The lack of places for waste packaging results in contamination of groundwater and soils. With the help of the software "WARM", the analysis of three scenarios, with material recycling and composting, and use the 2 and 3 scenarios with the use of gas.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dittmann Iwona

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRRFCFE. The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities in the years 2006 – 2014, as well as on data from the financial market.

[New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghione, Alberto; Noel, Brigitte; Vinai, Paolo; Demazière, Christophe

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor is analyzed using CATHARE. • Input and model uncertainties relevant to the transient, are considered. • A statistical methodology for the propagation of the uncertainties is applied. • No safety criteria are exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins are estimated. • The most influential uncertainties are determined with a sensitivity analysis. - Abstract: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is presented. The JHR is a new material testing reactor under construction at CEA on the Cadarache site, France. The thermal-hydraulic system code CATHARE is applied to investigate the response of the reactor system to the scenario. The uncertainty and sensitivity study was based on a statistical methodology for code uncertainty propagation, and the ‘Uncertainty and Sensitivity’ platform URANIE was used. Accordingly, the input uncertainties relevant to the transient, were identified, quantified, and propagated to the code output. The results show that the safety criteria are not exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins exist. In addition, the most influential input uncertainties on the safety parameters were found by making use of a sensitivity analysis.

Severe accident analysis to prevent high pressure scenarios in the EPR TM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarian, G.; Gandrille, P.; Gasperini, M.; Klein, R.

2010-01-01

The EPR TM has incorporated several design features in order to specifically address major severe accident safety issues. In particular, it was designed with the objective to transfer high pressure core melt scenarios into a low pressure scenario with high reliability so that a high pressure vessel failure can be practically eliminated. It is the key issue in the defense-in-depth approach, for a postulated severe accident with core melting, to prevent any risk of containment failure due to possible Direct Containment Heating or due to reactor vessel rocketing which results from vessel failure at high pressure. Temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture, which could lead to a radiological containment bypass, has also to be prevented. On the basis of the analysis of the main high pressure core melt scenarios which are calculated with the MAAP4.07 code which was developed to support the EPR TM, this paper explores the benefits of primary depressurization by dedicated valves on transient evolutions. It specifically addresses the thermal response of the structures by sensitivity studies involving the timing of valve actuation. It outlines that a grace period of at least one hour is available for a delayed valve actuation without inducing excessive loads and without increasing the risk of a temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture. (authors)

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

1986-07-01

This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

Atmospheric dispersion modeling and radiological safety analysis for a hypothetical accident of Ghana Research Reactor -1 (GHARR-1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lunguya, J. M.

2013-06-01

This work presents the environmental impact analysis of some selected radionuclides released from the Ghana Research Reactor- 1 (GHARR-1) after a hypothetical postulated accidents scenario. The source term was identified and generated from an inventory of radioisotopes released during the accident. Atmospheric transport model was then applied to calculate the total effective dose and how it would be distributed to different organs of the human body as a function of distance downwind. All accident scenarios were selected from GHARR-1 Safety Analysis Report. After the source term was identified the MCNPX code was used to perform the core burnup/depletion analysis. The assumption was made that the activities were released to the atmosphere under a horse design basis accident scenario. The gaussian dose calculation method was applied, coded in Hotspot, a Healthy Physics computer code. This served as the computational tool to perform the atmospheric dispersion modeling and was used to calculate radionuclide concentration at downwind location. Based upon predominant meteorological conditions at the site, the adopted strategy was to use site-specific meteorological data and dispersion modeling to analyze the hypothetical release to the environment of radionuclides and evaluate to what extent such a release may have radiological effects on the public. Final data were processed and presented as Total Effective Dose Equivalent as a function of time and distance of deposition. The results indicate that all the values of Effective dose obtained are far below the regulatory limits, making the use of the reactor safe, even in the case of worst accident scenario where all the fission products were released into the atmosphere. (au)

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

1979-10-01

The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2013-01-01

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rika Harini Irawati

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.I.(rev.1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

Corporate Social Responsibility Issues in Media Releases: A Stakeholder Analysis of Australian Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher J. Reinig

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates Australia's four major national banks, analysing the use of media releases in the marketing and communication of corporate social responsibility (CSR. Using content analysis, the extent and nature of the media releases issued in 2006, and aimed at specific stakeholders, is determined for each bank. The findings indicate that over one-third of the banks' media releases discuss CSR, predominantly communicating issues related to community involvement. Furthermore, customers and communities are found to be the intended audiences for the majority of the CSR-related media releases.

Drug release kinetic analysis and prediction of release data via polymer molecular weight in sustained release diltiazem matrices.

Science.gov (United States)

Adibkia, K; Ghanbarzadeh, S; Mohammadi, G; Khiavi, H Z; Sabzevari, A; Barzegar-Jalali, M

2014-03-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of HPMC (K4M and K100M) as well as tragacanth on the drug release rate of diltiazem (DLTZ) from matrix tablets prepared by direct compression method.Mechanism of drug transport through the matrices was studied by fitting the release data to the 10 kinetic models. 3 model independent parameters; i. e., mean dissolution time (MDT), mean release rate (MRR) and release rate efficacy (RE) as well as 5 time point approaches were established to compare the dissolution profiles. To find correlation between fraction of drug released and polymer's molecular weight, dissolution data were fitted into two proposed equations.All polymers could sustain drug release up to 10 h. The release data were fitted best to Peppas and Higuchi square root kinetic models considering squared correlation coefficient and mean percent error (MPE). RE and MRR were decreased when polymer to drug ratio was increased. Conversely, t60% was increased with raising polymer /drug ratio. The fractions of drug released from the formulations prepared with tragacanth were more than those formulated using the same amount of HPMC K4M and HPMC K100M.Preparation of DLTZ matrices applying HPMCK4M, HPMC K100M and tragacanth could effectively extend the drug release. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Analysis of accidental UF6 releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan Yumao; Tan Rui; Gao Qifa

2012-01-01

As interim substance in the nuclear fuel enrichment process, Uranium Hexafluoride (UF 6 ) is widely applied in nuclear processing, enrichment and fuel fabrication plants. Because of its vivid chemical characteristics and special radiological hazard and chemical toxicity, great attention must be paid to accident of UF 6 leakage. The chemical reactions involved in UF 6 release processes were introduced, therewith potential release styles, pathways and characteristics of diffusion were analyzed. The results indicated that the accidental release process of UF 6 is not a simple passive diffusion. So, specific atmospheric diffusion model related to UF 6 releases need be used in order to analyze and evaluate accurately the accidental consequences. (authors)

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

Scenario aggregation and analysis via Mean-Shift Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandelli, D.; Yilmaz, A.; Metzroth, K.; Aldemir, T.; Denning, R.

2010-01-01

A new generation of dynamic methodologies is being developed for nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) which explicitly account for the time element in modeling the probabilistic system evolution and use numerical simulation tools to account for possible dependencies between failure events. The dynamic event tree (DET) approach is one of these methodologies. One challenge with dynamic PRA methodologies is the large amount of data they produce which may be difficult to analyze without appropriate software tools. The concept of 'data mining' is well known in the computer science community and several methodologies have been developed in order to extract useful information from a dataset with a large number of records. Using the dataset generated by the DET analysis of the reactor vessel auxiliary cooling system (RVACS) of an ABR-1000 for an aircraft crash recovery scenario and the Mean-Shift Methodology for data mining, it is shown how clusters of transients with common characteristics can be identified and classified. (authors)

[Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

2013-01-01

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

PROBCON-HDW: A probability and consequence system of codes for long-term analysis of Hanford defense wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piepho, M.G.; Nguyen, T.H.

1988-12-01

The PROBCON-HDW (PROBability and CONsequence analysis for Hanford defense waste) computer code system calculates the long-term cumulative releases of radionuclides from the Hanford defense wastes (HDW) to the accessible environment and compares the releases to environmental release limits as defined in 40 CFR 191. PROBCON-HDW takes into account the variability of input parameter values used in models to calculate HDW release and transport in the vadose zone to the accessible environment (taken here as groundwater). A human intrusion scenario, which consists of drilling boreholes into the waste beneath the waste sites and bringing waste to the surface, is also included in PROBCON-HDW. PROBCON-HDW also includes the capability to combine the cumulative releases according to various long-term (10,000 year) scenarios into a composite risk curve or complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). The system structure of the PROBCON-HDW codes, the mathematical models in PROBCON-HDW, the input files, the input formats, the command files, and the graphical output results of several HDW release scenarios are described in the report. 3 refs., 7 figs., 9 tabs

Analysis of hydrogen sulfide releases in heavy water production facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, Cornelia; Dumitrescu, Maria; Preda, Irina; Lazar, Roxana

1996-01-01

Safety analyses conducted at ICIS concern primarily the heavy water production installations. The quantitative risk assessment needs the frequency calculation of accident sequences and consequences. In heavy water plants which obtain primary isotopic concentration of water by H 2 O - H 2 S exchange, large amounts of hydrogen sulfide which is a toxic, inflammable and explosive gas, are circulated. The first stage in calculating the consequences consists in potential analysis of H 2 S release. This work presents a study of this types of releases for pilot installations of the heavy water production at ICIS (Plant 'G' at Rm. Valcea). The installations which contain and maneuver large quantities of H 2 S and the mathematical models for different types of releases are presented. The accidents analyzed are: catastrophic column, container, spy-hole failures or gas-duct rupture and wall cracks in the installation. The main results are given as tables while the time variations of the flow rate and quantities of H 2 O released by stack disposal are plotted

Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

2002-01-01

This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

The Dose Assessment in the Vault Test Case of Near-Surface Disposal Facility for Drinking Water Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Tae Hyoung; Choi, Byung Seon; Moon, Jei Kwon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jae Woo [Jeju National University, Jeju (Korea, Republic of)

2012-05-15

It is generally accepted that the radionuclides contained in the radioactive wastes will be eventually released and these will be transported to the accessible environment (near-field, far-field, biosphere). Therefore, the long-term safety assessment of near-surface radioactive waste disposal should be required by modeling the expected release of radionuclides from the repository, far-field area, and biosphere. Finally, the effective dose rate should be estimated through the released radionuclides. In this study, the radiological dose was evaluated for the reference near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility in Vaalputs, South Africa, which has been selected as a part of IAEA coordinated research program on improvement of safety assessment methodologies(ISAM). The assessment of radiological dose was performed for drinking water scenario from a well. The release and transport of radionuclides in disposal system were simulated by GoldSim. This approach suggested the time variation of effective dose over long-term period. And the results from this approach were compared with another approach method for the same facility and scenario

The Dose Assessment in the Vault Test Case of Near-Surface Disposal Facility for Drinking Water Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Tae Hyoung; Choi, Byung Seon; Moon, Jei Kwon; Park, Jae Woo

2012-01-01

It is generally accepted that the radionuclides contained in the radioactive wastes will be eventually released and these will be transported to the accessible environment (near-field, far-field, biosphere). Therefore, the long-term safety assessment of near-surface radioactive waste disposal should be required by modeling the expected release of radionuclides from the repository, far-field area, and biosphere. Finally, the effective dose rate should be estimated through the released radionuclides. In this study, the radiological dose was evaluated for the reference near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility in Vaalputs, South Africa, which has been selected as a part of IAEA coordinated research program on improvement of safety assessment methodologies(ISAM). The assessment of radiological dose was performed for drinking water scenario from a well. The release and transport of radionuclides in disposal system were simulated by GoldSim. This approach suggested the time variation of effective dose over long-term period. And the results from this approach were compared with another approach method for the same facility and scenario

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

Assessment of Fuel Analysis Methodology and Fission Product Release for 37-Element Fuel by Using the Latest IST Codes during Stagnation Feeder Break in CANDU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Joo Hwan; Jung, Jong Yeob

2009-09-01

Feeder break accident is regarded as one of the design basis accident in CANDU reactor which results in a fuel failure. For a particular range of inlet feeder break sizes, the flow in the channel is reduced sufficiently that the fuel and fuel channel integrity can be significantly affected to have damage in the affected channel, while the remainder of the core remains adequately cooled. The flow in the downstream channel can be more or less stagnated due to a balance between pressure at the break on the upstream side and the reverse driving pressure between the break and the downstream end. In the extreme, this can lead to rapid fuel heatup and fuel damage and failure of the fuel channel similar to that associated with a severe channel flow blockage. Such an inlet feeder break scenario is called a stagnation break. In this report, the fuel analysis methodology and the assessment results of fission product inventory and release during the stagnation feeder break are described for conservatively assumed limiting channel. The accident was assumed to be occurred in the refurbished Wolsong unit 1 and the latest safety codes were used in the analysis. Fission product inventories during the steady state were calculated by using ELESTRES-IST 1.2 code. The whole analysis process was carried out by a script file which was programmed by Perl language. The perl script file was programmed to make all ELESTRES input files for each bundle and each ring based on the given power-burnup history and thermal-hydraulic conditions of the limiting channel and to perform the fuel analysis automatically. The fission product release during the transient period of stagnation feeder break was evaluated by applying Gehl model. The amounts of each isotope's release are conservatively evaluated for additional 2 seconds after channel failure. The calculated fission product releases are provided to the following dose assessment as a source term

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Investigation of Appropriate Applications for Reuse of Conditionally Released Materials from Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniska, V.; Vasko, M.; Necas, V.

2012-01-01

During the decommissioning (D and D) phase of nuclear facility life cycle a lot of original facility materials are generated as a primary decommissioning waste. One portion of these materials is unconditionally releasable, i.e. their radioactivity content is below the stipulated concentration limits for clearance thus they can be further recycled or dumped without any constraints as a conventional waste. Second portion of generated waste is waste with radioactivity content higher than limits for free release and it has to be handled and disposed of as the radioactive waste (RAW) within special RAW repositories. Disposal of RAW is quite expensive therefore it seems to be reasonable to reduce amount of waste destined for disposal and to identify RAW with radioactivity content slightly higher than stipulated concentration limits for unconditional release which could be released with some constraints for further recycling and reuse while stipulated safety requirements are observed, i.e. conditional release of RAW. The most perspective materials from decommissioning for such material reuse are steel and concrete. These materials can be reused within the long term robust constructions for applications with infrequent or only short time presence of personnel/public, minimum interaction of human with materials and controllable interaction of materials with environment. Ideal applications for deployment of such materials are steel reinforcement in pylons for highways, tunnel linings, industry prefabricates, big tanks or linings in nuclear applications, for concrete debris it can be filling material for road construction. Presented paper deals with preconditions for reuse of conditionally released materials. It maps legal pre-requisites in the Slovak Republic, appropriate material application scenarios, methodology of assessment of impact on human health and environment - external and internal exposure assessment, possible optimisation of scenarios and estimation of

Observations and the Wolf-Rayet evolutionary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firmani, C.

1982-01-01

Results of a statistical analysis of massive stars and of WR stars show general agreement with the scenario that identifies the majority of the WR stars with the He-burning evolutionary phases. The duplicity, the morphological properties and the galactic distribution of the WR stars are valuable pieces of evidence that suggest correlations between the different WR types and the ''channels'' defined in the scenario. A rough analysis of the ''traffic through each channel'' is attempted. (Auth.)

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

2010-06-01

A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, J. [Independent Consultant, Golden, CO (United States)

2015-05-11

The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

Understanding Drug Release Data through Thermodynamic Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Freire, Marjorie Caroline Liberato Cavalcanti; Alexandrino, Francisco; Marcelino, Henrique Rodrigues; Picciani, Paulo Henrique de Souza; Silva, Kattya Gyselle de Holanda E; Genre, Julieta; Oliveira, Anselmo Gomes de; Egito, Eryvaldo Sócrates Tabosa do

2017-06-13

Understanding the factors that can modify the drug release profile of a drug from a Drug-Delivery-System (DDS) is a mandatory step to determine the effectiveness of new therapies. The aim of this study was to assess the Amphotericin-B (AmB) kinetic release profiles from polymeric systems with different compositions and geometries and to correlate these profiles with the thermodynamic parameters through mathematical modeling. Film casting and electrospinning techniques were used to compare behavior of films and fibers, respectively. Release profiles from the DDSs were performed, and the mathematical modeling of the data was carried out. Activation energy, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs free energy of the drug release process were determined. AmB release profiles showed that the relationship to overcome the enthalpic barrier was PVA-fiber > PVA-film > PLA-fiber > PLA-film. Drug release kinetics from the fibers and the films were better fitted on the Peppas-Sahlin and Higuchi models, respectively. The thermodynamic parameters corroborate these findings, revealing that the AmB release from the evaluated systems was an endothermic and non-spontaneous process. Thermodynamic parameters can be used to explain the drug kinetic release profiles. Such an approach is of utmost importance for DDS containing insoluble compounds, such as AmB, which is associated with an erratic bioavailability.

Understanding Drug Release Data through Thermodynamic Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Freire, Marjorie Caroline Liberato Cavalcanti; Alexandrino, Francisco; Marcelino, Henrique Rodrigues; Picciani, Paulo Henrique de Souza; Silva, Kattya Gyselle de Holanda e; Genre, Julieta; de Oliveira, Anselmo Gomes; do Egito, Eryvaldo Sócrates Tabosa

2017-01-01

Understanding the factors that can modify the drug release profile of a drug from a Drug-Delivery-System (DDS) is a mandatory step to determine the effectiveness of new therapies. The aim of this study was to assess the Amphotericin-B (AmB) kinetic release profiles from polymeric systems with different compositions and geometries and to correlate these profiles with the thermodynamic parameters through mathematical modeling. Film casting and electrospinning techniques were used to compare behavior of films and fibers, respectively. Release profiles from the DDSs were performed, and the mathematical modeling of the data was carried out. Activation energy, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs free energy of the drug release process were determined. AmB release profiles showed that the relationship to overcome the enthalpic barrier was PVA-fiber > PVA-film > PLA-fiber > PLA-film. Drug release kinetics from the fibers and the films were better fitted on the Peppas–Sahlin and Higuchi models, respectively. The thermodynamic parameters corroborate these findings, revealing that the AmB release from the evaluated systems was an endothermic and non-spontaneous process. Thermodynamic parameters can be used to explain the drug kinetic release profiles. Such an approach is of utmost importance for DDS containing insoluble compounds, such as AmB, which is associated with an erratic bioavailability. PMID:28773009

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

2014-01-01

The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

The Chernobyl I-131 Release: Model Validation and Assessment of the Countermeasure Effectiveness. Report of the Chernobyl 131I Release Working Group of EMRAS Theme 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The Chernobyl 131 I Release Working Group (IWG) which was established within the framework of the EMRAS Programme continues some of the more traditional work of previous international programmes that were aimed at increasing confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to the environmental releases. There is still very little information regarding the quantitative relationship between radiation dose to the thyroid from Chernobyl and the risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainty combined with individual estimates of radiation dose constitutes a crucial point in establishing this relationship, since, any release of radioiodine into environment creates wide range of uncertainty for internal dose assessments. The 131 I scenarios provide an excellent opportunity to compare a number of modelling approaches to a single assessment problem, in a dose reconstruction context. Nine experts in environmental modelling participated in the Plavsk Scenario dealing with areas of assessment modelling for which the capabilities are not yet well established. One could observes the remarkably improvement in models performance comparing with previous radioiodine scenarios. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three of the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. The process of testing independent model calculations against independent data set also provided useful information to the originators of the test data.

Toxic chemical considerations for tank farm releases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Keuren, J.C.; Davis, J.S., Westinghouse Hanford

1996-08-01

This topical report contains technical information used to determine the accident consequences of releases of toxic chemical and gases for the Tank Farm Final Safety Analysis report (FSAR).It does not provide results for specific accident scenarios but does provide information for use in those calculations including chemicals to be considered, chemical concentrations, chemical limits and a method of summing the fractional contributions of each chemical. Tank farm composites evaluated were liquids and solids for double shell tanks, single shell tanks, all solids,all liquids, headspace gases, and 241-C-106 solids. Emergency response planning guidelines (ERPGs) were used as the limits.Where ERPGs were not available for the chemicals of interest, surrogate ERPGs were developed. Revision 2 includes updated sample data, an executive summary, and some editorial revisions.

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-11-01

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Giertz

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

Scenario exploration approach for performance assessment of geological disposal system (III)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-02-01

In order to underpin and defend the definition of calculation cases and simplified PA models, we discuss a complementary approach which reverses the standard procedure of scenario development and case definition described above. We design a set of extremely flexible mathematical tools called Shadow Models' for the particular purpose of 'scanning' the whole parameter/model space which has not yet been rejected by the experts rather than scrutinizing it. The SSTM was used extensively to generate an ensemble of stochastic realizations of the possible nuclide transport behaviour within the EBS. The principal component analysis on the ensemble and the analysis of the contribution of input parameter variations to the output variations reconstructed the existing knowledge concerning the sensitivity structure for the reference cases in a more formal and quantitative way. In addition, an analysis on the subset of realizations corresponding to high peak release rate revealed a critical combination and sequence of events that could potentially lead to a significantly higher release rate than that of the reference cases. In the current financial year, the objective of the study is: (1) To extend the methodology further and develop a shadow model for nuclide transport through near-field host rock which is represented as a time-dependent channel network with dual porosity; (2) To apply the near-field shadow transport model in the stochastic mode and explore the sensitivity structure; (3) To run the near-field shadow transport model in the deterministic mode to investigate effects of some physical events. (author)

Qualitative analysis of controlled release ciprofloxacin/carbopol 934 mucoadhesive suspension

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subhashree Sahoo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Mucoadhesive polymeric (carbopol 934 suspension of ciprofloxacin was prepared by ultrasonication and optimized with the aim of developing an oral controlled release gastro-retentive dosage form. The qualitative analysis of the formulation was performed by fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM analyses. FTIR (400 cm-1 to 4000 cm-1 region and Raman (140 to 2400 cm-1 region Spectroscopic studies were carried out and the spectra were used for interpretation. XRD data of pure drug, polymer and the formulation were obtained using a powder diffractometer scanned from a Bragg′s angle (2q of 10° to 70°. The dispersion of the particle was observed using SEM techniques. The particle size distribution and aspect ratio of particles in the polymeric suspension were obtained from SEM image analysis. The results from FTIR and Raman spectroscopic analyses suggested that, in formulation, the carboxylic groups of ciprofloxacin and hydroxyl groups of C934 undergo a chemical interaction leading to esterification and hydrogen bonding. The XRD data suggested that the retention of crystalline nature of ciprofloxacin in the formulation would lead to increase in stability and drug loading; decrease in solubility; and delay in release of the drug from polymeric suspension with better bioavailability and penetration capacity. The SEM image analysis indicated that, in the formulation maximum particles were having aspect ratio from 2 to 4 and standard deviation was very less which provided supporting evidences for homogeneous, uniformly dispersed, stable controlled release ciprofloxacin suspension which would be pharmaceutically acceptable.

Understanding Drug Release Data through Thermodynamic Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marjorie Caroline Liberato Cavalcanti Freire

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Understanding the factors that can modify the drug release profile of a drug from a Drug-Delivery-System (DDS is a mandatory step to determine the effectiveness of new therapies. The aim of this study was to assess the Amphotericin-B (AmB kinetic release profiles from polymeric systems with different compositions and geometries and to correlate these profiles with the thermodynamic parameters through mathematical modeling. Film casting and electrospinning techniques were used to compare behavior of films and fibers, respectively. Release profiles from the DDSs were performed, and the mathematical modeling of the data was carried out. Activation energy, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs free energy of the drug release process were determined. AmB release profiles showed that the relationship to overcome the enthalpic barrier was PVA-fiber > PVA-film > PLA-fiber > PLA-film. Drug release kinetics from the fibers and the films were better fitted on the Peppas–Sahlin and Higuchi models, respectively. The thermodynamic parameters corroborate these findings, revealing that the AmB release from the evaluated systems was an endothermic and non-spontaneous process. Thermodynamic parameters can be used to explain the drug kinetic release profiles. Such an approach is of utmost importance for DDS containing insoluble compounds, such as AmB, which is associated with an erratic bioavailability.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

Science.gov (United States)

Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

2016-12-01

A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation

Sensitivity Analysis of Dousing Spray Trip on Radioactive Release in Pressure Tube Rupture Accident with Both End Fitting Failures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, M. S.; Kang, H. S; Kim, S. R. [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

We analyzed the sensitivity analysis of dousing spray trip conditions on radioactive release. In terms of conservativeness, the set 1 trip would be more appropriate in RR analysis than set 2 trip, which is the general condition of RR analysis. Radioactive releases from the containment building is related to containment air pressure, which increases by the coolant discharge from loss of coolant accident and the actuation conditions of dousing spray and so on. In LOCA analysis, the dousing spray trip conditions are set for the analysis objectives; for peak pressure (PP), for pressure signal (PS), for radioactive release (RR) and etc. In RR analysis, we would determine the dousing spray trip condition to increase radioactive release to the public for conservatism. Therefore, we carried out the sensitivity analysis of dousing spray trip condition on radioactive release from containment building using GOTHIC and SMART program for CANDU.

An economically reliable scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Design and Macroeconomic Analysis of an 'Acceptable' Low-Carbon Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

2016-01-01

Two observations motivate our research: the lack of acceptability of climate policies and the deficit of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of low-carbon scenarios. Both constitute a barrier to decision-making and slow the energy transition. To overcome these limitations, we have scripted a scenario using a co-development method involving 30 stakeholders from civil society and the private and public sectors. Stakeholders contributed significantly to the methodology by requesting data transparency, sensitivity tests and the clarification of economic and financial impacts. We incorporated the set of policies regarded as acceptable into the Imaclim-R model. The resulting scenario cuts CO_2 emissions by 68 % in 2050, an outcome close to the 75 % reduction target. The measures are beneficial to employment and economic growth, except in the short term. These findings provide solid foundations to build acceptable decarbonization pathways

Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denning, R.S.; Leonard, M.T.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Kelly, R.F.; Jordan, H.; Schumacher, P.M.; Curtis, L.A.

1990-08-01

This report provides the results of source term calculations that were performed in support of the NUREG-1150 study. ''Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Power Plants.'' This is the sixth volume of a series of reports. It supplements results presented in the earlier volumes. Analyses were performed for three of the NUREG-1150 plants: Peach Bottom, a Mark I, boiling water reactor; Surry, a subatmospheric containment, pressurized water reactor; and Sequoyah, an ice condenser containment, pressurized water reactor. Complete source term results are presented for the following sequences: short term station blackout with failure of the ADS system in the Peach Bottom plant; station blackout with a pump seal LOCA for the Surry plant; station blackout with a pump seal LOCA in the Sequoyah plant; and a very small break with loss of ECC and spray recirculation in the Sequoyah plant. In addition, some partial analyses were performed which did not require running all of the modules of the Source Term Code Package. A series of MARCH3 analyses were performed for the Surry and Sequoyah plants to evaluate the effects of alternative emergency operating procedures involving primary and secondary depressurization on the progress of the accident. Only thermal-hydraulic results are provided for these analyses. In addition, three accident sequences were analyzed for the Surry plant for accident-induced failure of steam generator tubes. In these analyses, only the transport of radionuclides within the primary system and failed steam generator were examined. The release of radionuclides to the environment is presented for the phase of the accident preceding vessel meltthrough. 17 refs., 176 figs., 113 tabs

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

A review and perspective of existing research on the release of nanomaterials from solid nanocomposites.

Science.gov (United States)

Froggett, Stephan J; Clancy, Shaun F; Boverhof, Darrell R; Canady, Richard A

2014-04-07

Advances in adding nanomaterials to various matrices have occurred in tandem with the identification of potential hazards associated with exposure to pure forms of nanomaterials. We searched multiple research publication databases and found that, relative to data generated on potential nanomaterial hazards or exposures, very little attention has focused on understanding the potential and conditions for release of nanomaterials from nanocomposites. However, as a prerequisite to exposure studying release is necessary to inform risk assessments. We identified fifty-four studies that specifically investigated the release of nanomaterials, and review them in the following release scenario groupings: machining, weathering, washing, contact and incineration. While all of the identified studies provided useful information, only half were controlled experiments. Based on these data, the debris released from solid, non-food nanocomposites contains in varying frequencies, a mixture of four types of debris. Most frequently identified are (1) particles of matrix alone, and slightly less often, the (2) matrix particles exhibit the nanomaterial partially or fully embedded; far less frequently is (3) the added nanomaterial entirely dissociated from the matrix identified: and most rare are (4) dissolved ionic forms of the added nanomaterial. The occurrence of specific debris types appeared to be dependent on the specific release scenario and environment. These data highlight that release from nanocomposites can take multiple forms and that additional research and guidance would be beneficial, allowing for more consistent characterization of the release potential of nanomaterials. In addition, these data support calls for method validation and standardization, as well as understanding how laboratory release scenarios relate to real-world conditions. Importantly, as risk is considered to be a function of the inherent hazards of a substance and the actual potential for exposure, data

Probabilistic consequence assessment of hydrogen sulphide releases from a heavy water plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baynes, C.J.

1986-05-01

This report provides a summary of work carried out on behalf of the Atomic Energy Control Board, concerned with the consequences of accidental releases to the atmosphere of hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S) at a heavy water plant. In this study, assessments of consequences are made in terms of the probabilities of a range of possible outcomes, i.e., numbers of fatalities, given a certain release scenario. The report describes the major features of a computer model which was developed to calculate the consequences and their associated probabilities, and the major input data used in applying the model to a consequence assessment of the Bruce heavy water plant (HWP) in Ontario. The results of the sensitivity analyses of the model are summarized. Finally, the results of the consequence assessments of 43 accidental release scenarios at the Bruce HWP are summarized, together with a number of conclusions which were drawn from these results regarding the predicted consequences and the factors which influence them

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

Advice concerning radionuclide release of nuclear power plants and public health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

Amongst the severe accidents with nuclear power plants, a number of scenario's is theoretically possible. These scenario's lead to more or less serious consequences for the environment. Characteristics for the category of accidents was the early breakdown of the containment of the reactor. In recent years more and more doubt has risen with regard to the most serious scenario KE. In the Netherlands the Committee for Reactor Safety (CRV) has reported on this subject (annex 1). According to the CRV the release of a number of important radionuclides, in the case of scenario KE, will be very much less than was supposed in the past. Also, the nuclides will be released much later than was supposed before. A committee of the Dutch Health Council, starting from the CRV-report, has made calculations on the radiological consequences of the KE-scenario, corrected in accordance with these new developments (KEH). As could be expected, this category KEH proves to be considerably less dangerous than was supposed before. Irradiation of the surrounding population with a lethal dose would not occur anymore. The number of somatic and genetic effects would be very small. The conclusions drawn from these calculations are given. These results are compared with calculated consequences of an accident of the KM-category. The CRV has defined a maximised accident from this category (KMM). The report includes the report of the Dutch Commission on Reactor Safety (CR-82-71) as an appendix. (Auth.)

Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

2012-01-01

Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenborg, J.; Winegardner, W.K.; Pelto, P.J.; Voss, J.W.; Stottlemyre, J.A.; Forbes, I.A.; Fussell, J.B.; Burkholder, H.C.

1978-11-01

The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods

A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

1996-01-01

The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

The MARS simulation of the nuclear weapons preparedness LOTTA scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tovedal, H.

2001-03-01

The simulation method MARS, Mathematical Radiac Simulation, is primarily intended for preparedness exercises in nuclear fallout areas and simulates the ionizing radiation dose rates from fission products deposited on the ground, i.e. fallout from a nuclear weapons explosion or from a release of radioactive material from a nuclear reactor. MARS gives at any time after the fictitious explosion or reactor release the dose rates at any position in the fallout area. MARS has been used for simulation of an exercise scenario called LOTTA, designed for training and test of a radiac preparedness group in the Dept. of Nuclear Protection at FOI. The group is a member of a national preparedness organisation under the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute, SSI. This MARS application was a simulation of the entire course of events following a fictitious nuclear weapons explosion, including the fission product deposition process and the ultimate activity and dose rate distribution in the fallout area. The simulation was based on deposition and fallout prognoses worked out by FOI, using the prognosis model PELLO. This report presents a short description of the simulation of the LOTTA scenario. A more detailed presentation of the general MARS method can be found in the report 'Mathematical Radiac Simulation, MARS'

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Radiological consequence analysis. Report on the work package 10. Preliminary safety analysis for the site Gorleben; Radiologische Konsequenzanalyse. Bericht zum Arbeitspaket 10. Vorlaeufige Sicherheitsanalyse fuer den Standort Gorleben

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larue, Juergen; Baltes, Bruno; Fischer, Heidemarie; Frieling, Gerd; Kock, Ingo; Navarro, Martin; Seher, Holger

2013-02-15

Work package 10 of the preliminary safety analysis for the site Gorleben concerns the analysis of release scenarios and the radiological consequences. The report includes the description of the applied methodology, the concept for the mathematical description of scenarios, the variety of scenarios for the radiological consequence analysis with the definition of the reference scenario. The database for the calculation covers geology and hydrology, the final repository concept and the process of the final disposal system. The used models were the one-phase transport model MARINE and the two-phase transport model TOUGH2. The report summarizes the results including an evaluation of the realization of the demonstration concept with respect to solution transport, fluid transport, robustness of the modeling results and analogy discussion to other disposal variants (i.e. borehole disposal and storage of transport or storage casks).

SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

OpenAIRE

Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

2016-01-01

The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam cres...

Toxic chemical considerations for tank farm releases. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Keuren, J.C.

1995-11-01

This document provides a method of determining the toxicological consequences of accidental releases from Hanford Tank Farms. A determination was made of the most restrictive toxic chemicals that are expected to be present in the tanks. Concentrations were estimated based on the maximum sample data for each analyte in all the tanks in the composite. Composite evaluated were liquids and solids from single shell tanks, double shell tanks, flammable gas watch list tanks, as well as all solids, all liquids, head space gases, and 241-C-106 solids. A sum of fractions of the health effects was computed for each composite for unit releases based emergency response planning guidelines (ERPGs). Where ERPGs were not available for chemical compounds of interest, surrogate guidelines were established. The calculation method in this report can be applied to actual release scenarios by multiplying the sum of fractions by the release rate for continuous releases, or the release amount for puff releases. Risk guidelines are met if the product is less than for equal to one.

Toxic chemical considerations for tank farm releases. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Keuren, J.C.

1995-11-01

This document provides a method of determining the toxicological consequences of accidental releases from Hanford Tank Farms. A determination was made of the most restrictive toxic chemicals that are expected to be present in the tanks. Concentrations were estimated based on the maximum sample data for each analyte in all the tanks in the composite. Composite evaluated were liquids and solids from single shell tanks, double shell tanks, flammable gas watch list tanks, as well as all solids, all liquids, head space gases, and 241-C-106 solids. A sum of fractions of the health effects was computed for each composite for unit releases based emergency response planning guidelines (ERPGs). Where ERPGs were not available for chemical compounds of interest, surrogate guidelines were established. The calculation method in this report can be applied to actual release scenarios by multiplying the sum of fractions by the release rate for continuous releases, or the release amount for puff releases. Risk guidelines are met if the product is less than for equal to one

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Airborne engineered nanomaterials in the workplace—a review of release and worker exposure during nanomaterial production and handling processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ding, Yaobo [Institute for Work and Health (IST), Universities of Lausanne and Geneva, Route de la Corniche 2, 1066, Epalinges (Switzerland); Kuhlbusch, Thomas A.J. [Institute of Energy and Environmental Technology (IUTA), Air Quality & Sustainable Nanotechnology Unit, Bliersheimer Straße 58-60, 47229 Duisburg (Germany); Centre for Nanointegration (CENIDE), University Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg (Germany); Van Tongeren, Martie; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez [Centre for Human Exposure Science, Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Research Avenue North, Edinburgh EH14 4AP (United Kingdom); Tuinman, Ilse [TNO, Lange Kleiweg 137, Rijswijk (Netherlands); Chen, Rui [CAS Key Laboratory for Biomedical Effects of Nanomaterials and Nanosafety & CAS Center for Excellence in Nanoscience, National Center for Nanoscience and Technology of China, Beijing 100190 (China); Alvarez, Iñigo Larraza [ACCIONA Infrastructure, Materials Area, Innovation Division, C/Valportillo II 8, 28108, Alcobendas (Spain); Mikolajczyk, Urszula [Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine, Lodz (Poland); Nickel, Carmen; Meyer, Jessica; Kaminski, Heinz [Institute of Energy and Environmental Technology (IUTA), Air Quality & Sustainable Nanotechnology Unit, Bliersheimer Straße 58-60, 47229 Duisburg (Germany); Wohlleben, Wendel [Dept. Material Physics, BASF SE, Advanced Materials Research, Ludwigshafen (Germany); Stahlmecke, Burkhard [Institute of Energy and Environmental Technology (IUTA), Air Quality & Sustainable Nanotechnology Unit, Bliersheimer Straße 58-60, 47229 Duisburg (Germany); Clavaguera, Simon [NanoSafety Platform, Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA), Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, 38054 (France); and others

2017-01-15

Highlights: • Release characteristics can be grouped by the type of occupational activities. • Release levels may be linked to process energy. • A better data reporting practice will facilitate exposure assessment. • The results help prioritize industrial processes for human risk assessment. - Abstract: For exposure and risk assessment in occupational settings involving engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), it is important to understand the mechanisms of release and how they are influenced by the ENM, the matrix material, and process characteristics. This review summarizes studies providing ENM release information in occupational settings, during different industrial activities and using various nanomaterials. It also assesses the contextual information — such as the amounts of materials handled, protective measures, and measurement strategies — to understand which release scenarios can result in exposure. High-energy processes such as synthesis, spraying, and machining were associated with the release of large numbers of predominantly small-sized particles. Low-energy processes, including laboratory handling, cleaning, and industrial bagging activities, usually resulted in slight or moderate releases of relatively large agglomerates. The present analysis suggests that process-based release potential can be ranked, thus helping to prioritize release assessments, which is useful for tiered exposure assessment approaches and for guiding the implementation of workplace safety strategies. The contextual information provided in the literature was often insufficient to directly link release to exposure. The studies that did allow an analysis suggested that significant worker exposure might mainly occur when engineering safeguards and personal protection strategies were not carried out as recommended.

Airborne engineered nanomaterials in the workplace—a review of release and worker exposure during nanomaterial production and handling processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Yaobo; Kuhlbusch, Thomas A.J.; Van Tongeren, Martie; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Tuinman, Ilse; Chen, Rui; Alvarez, Iñigo Larraza; Mikolajczyk, Urszula; Nickel, Carmen; Meyer, Jessica; Kaminski, Heinz; Wohlleben, Wendel; Stahlmecke, Burkhard; Clavaguera, Simon

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Release characteristics can be grouped by the type of occupational activities. • Release levels may be linked to process energy. • A better data reporting practice will facilitate exposure assessment. • The results help prioritize industrial processes for human risk assessment. - Abstract: For exposure and risk assessment in occupational settings involving engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), it is important to understand the mechanisms of release and how they are influenced by the ENM, the matrix material, and process characteristics. This review summarizes studies providing ENM release information in occupational settings, during different industrial activities and using various nanomaterials. It also assesses the contextual information — such as the amounts of materials handled, protective measures, and measurement strategies — to understand which release scenarios can result in exposure. High-energy processes such as synthesis, spraying, and machining were associated with the release of large numbers of predominantly small-sized particles. Low-energy processes, including laboratory handling, cleaning, and industrial bagging activities, usually resulted in slight or moderate releases of relatively large agglomerates. The present analysis suggests that process-based release potential can be ranked, thus helping to prioritize release assessments, which is useful for tiered exposure assessment approaches and for guiding the implementation of workplace safety strategies. The contextual information provided in the literature was often insufficient to directly link release to exposure. The studies that did allow an analysis suggested that significant worker exposure might mainly occur when engineering safeguards and personal protection strategies were not carried out as recommended.

Dispersion of dissolved tracers released at the seafloor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kupferman, S.L.; Moore, D.E.

1983-01-01

The authors present scenarios that describe the temporal and spatial development of a concentration field of a dissolved tracer released at the seafloor for one Pacific and two Atlantic study areas. The scenarios are closely tied to available data by means of simple analytical models, and they proceed in stages from short time and space scales in the immediate vicinity of a release point to those scales characteristic of entire ocean basins. They introduce and discuss the concepts of internal mixing time and residence time in the benthic mixed layer, which are useful for developing an intuitive feeling for the behavior of a tracer. They also introduce the concept of domain of occupation, which is useful in drawing distinctions between mixing and stirring in the ocean. From this study it is apparent that reliable estimation of mixing will require careful consideration of the dynamics of the eddy fields in the ocean. In addition they urgently need more information that relates isopycnal structure and bottom topography to local near-bottom circulation

Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phung, Viet-Anh; Galushin, Sergey; Raub, Sebastian; Goronovski, Andrei; Villanueva, Walter; Kööp, Kaspar; Grishchenko, Dmitry; Kudinov, Pavel

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small ( 100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small variations of the input

Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phung, Viet-Anh, E-mail: vaphung@kth.se; Galushin, Sergey, E-mail: galushin@kth.se; Raub, Sebastian, E-mail: raub@kth.se; Goronovski, Andrei, E-mail: andreig@kth.se; Villanueva, Walter, E-mail: walterv@kth.se; Kööp, Kaspar, E-mail: kaspar@safety.sci.kth.se; Grishchenko, Dmitry, E-mail: dmitry@safety.sci.kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pavel@safety.sci.kth.se

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small (<20 tons) and large (>100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Evaluating release alternatives for a long-lived bird species under uncertainty about long-term demographic rates

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Clinton T.; Converse, Sarah J.; Folk, Martin J.; Runge, Michael C.; Nesbitt, Stephen A.

2012-01-01

The release of animals to reestablish an extirpated population is a decision problem that is often attended by considerable uncertainty about the probability of success. Annual releases of captive-reared juvenile Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) were begun in 1993 in central Florida, USA, to establish a breeding, non-migratory population. Over a 12-year period, 286 birds were released, but by 2004, the introduced flock had produced only four wild-fledged birds. Consequently, releases were halted over managers' concerns about the performance of the released flock and uncertainty about the efficacy of further releases. We used data on marked, released birds to develop predictive models for addressing whether releases should be resumed, and if so, under what schedule. To examine the outcome of different release scenarios, we simulated the survival and productivity of individual female birds under a baseline model that recognized age and breeding-class structure and which incorporated empirically estimated stochastic elements. As data on wild-fledged birds from captive-reared parents were sparse, a key uncertainty that confronts release decision-making is whether captive-reared birds and their offspring share the same vital rates. Therefore, we used data on the only population of wild Whooping Cranes in existence to construct two alternatives to the baseline model. The probability of population persistence was highly sensitive to the choice of these three models. Under the baseline model, extirpation of the population was nearly certain under any scenario of resumed releases. In contrast, the model based on estimates from wild birds projected a high probability of persistence under any release scenario, including cessation of releases. Therefore, belief in either of these models suggests that further releases are an ineffective use of resources. In the third model, which simulated a population Allee effect, population persistence was sensitive to the release decision

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Somoza-Cabrera

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

Safety analysis of the VLJ repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vieno, T.; Nordman, H.

1991-05-01

The VLJ repository is an underground disposal facility for the low and medium level waste generated at the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. The repository is located within 1 km from TVO I and TVO II (2 x 710 MWe) BWR's on the Olkiluoto island at the west coast of Finland. It contains two rock silos excavated at the depth of 60...100 meters in the bedrock. Low level waste will be disposed of in a shotcreted rock silo. For bituminized medium level waste, a separate silo of reinforced concrete has been built inside the shotcreted rock silo. The post-closure safety analysis has been done for the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) of the VLJ repository. In addition to the normal evolution scenario, several disturbed evolution and accident scenarios have been analysed. In the reference scenario, radio-nuclides are assumed to be released from the bituminized waste within 500 years, the concrete silo is assumed to gradually disintegrate and finally to collapse at 5 000 years, all concrete in the silo is assumed to be also chemically depleted within 6 000 years, and all the seals of the repository are assumed to deteriorate within 12 000 years. The ability of alone natural barriers to restrict the release of radionuclides into the biosphere has been evaluated by means of scenarios where the degradation of engineered barriers has been assumed to take place at a still faster rate. In one of the disturbed evolution scenarios it has been assumed that the concrete silo for medium level waste is severely impaired immediately after sealing of the repository. Effects of gas generation and consequences of human intrusion have been evaluated, too. The results of the safety analysis show that radiation doses of any significance are caused only if a well is bored in the vicinity of the repository or if the groundwater discharge spot is inhabited and used for cultivation. In the reference scenario the maximum expectation value of the individual dose rate is 0.3 mSv/a

Nanoscale Coloristic Pigments: Upper Limits on Releases from Pigmented Plastic during Environmental Aging, In Food Contact, and by Leaching.

Science.gov (United States)

Neubauer, Nicole; Scifo, Lorette; Navratilova, Jana; Gondikas, Andreas; Mackevica, Aiga; Borschneck, Daniel; Chaurand, Perrine; Vidal, Vladimir; Rose, Jerome; von der Kammer, Frank; Wohlleben, Wendel

2017-10-17

The life cycle of nanoscale pigments in plastics may cause environmental or human exposure by various release scenarios. We investigated spontaneous and induced release with mechanical stress during/after simulated sunlight and rain degradation of polyethylene (PE) with organic and inorganic pigments. Additionally, primary leaching in food contact and secondary leaching from nanocomposite fragments with an increased surface into environmental media was examined. Standardized protocols/methods for release sampling, detection, and characterization of release rate and form were applied: Transformation of the bulk material was analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray-tomography and Fourier-Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR); releases were quantified by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), single-particle-ICP-MS (sp-ICP-MS), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Analytical Ultracentrifugation (AUC), and UV/Vis spectroscopy. In all scenarios, the detectable particulate releases were attributed primarily to contaminations from handling and machining of the plastics, and were not identified with the pigments, although the contamination of 4 mg/kg (Fe) was dwarfed by the intentional content of 5800 mg/kg (Fe as Fe 2 O 3 pigment). We observed modulations (which were at least partially preventable by UV stabilizers) when comparing as-produced and aged nanocomposites, but no significant increase of releases. Release of pigments was negligible within the experimental error for all investigated scenarios, with upper limits of 10 mg/m 2 or 1600 particles/mL. This is the first holistic confirmation that pigment nanomaterials remain strongly contained in a plastic that has low diffusion and high persistence such as the polyolefin High Density Polyethylene (HDPE).

The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

1989-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Hydrogen release from 800 MeV proton-irradiated tungsten

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, B. M.; Venhaus, T. J.; Causey, R. A.; Garner, F. A.; Maloy, S. A.

2002-12-01

Tungsten irradiated in spallation neutron sources, such as those proposed for the accelerator production of tritium (APT) project, will contain large quantities of generated helium and hydrogen gas. Tungsten used in proposed fusion reactors will also be exposed to neutrons, and the generated protium will be accompanied by deuterium and tritium diffusing in from the plasma-facing surface. The release kinetics of these gases during various off-normal scenarios involving loss of coolant and after heat-induced rises in temperature are of particular interest for both applications. To determine the release kinetics of hydrogen from tungsten, tungsten rods irradiated with 800 MeV protons in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) to high exposures as part of the APT project have been examined. Hydrogen evolution from the tungsten has been measured using a dedicated mass-spectrometer system by subjecting the specimens to an essentially linear temperature ramp from ˜300 to ˜1500 K. Release profiles are compared with predictions obtained using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program (TMAP4). The measurements show that for high proton doses, the majority of the hydrogen is released gradually, starting at about 900 K and reaching a maximum at about 1400 K, where it drops fairly rapidly. Comparisons with TMAP show quite reasonable agreement using a trap energy of 1.4 eV and a trap density of ˜7%. There is a small additional release fraction occurring at ˜550 K, which is believed to be associated with low-energy trapping at or near the surface, and, therefore, was not included in the bulk TMAP model.

Hydrogen release from 800 MeV proton-irradiated tungsten

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliver, B.M.; Venhaus, T.J.; Causey, R.A.; Garner, F.A.; Maloy, S.A.

2002-01-01

Tungsten irradiated in spallation neutron sources, such as those proposed for the accelerator production of tritium (APT) project, will contain large quantities of generated helium and hydrogen gas. Tungsten used in proposed fusion reactors will also be exposed to neutrons, and the generated protium will be accompanied by deuterium and tritium diffusing in from the plasma-facing surface. The release kinetics of these gases during various off-normal scenarios involving loss of coolant and after heat-induced rises in temperature are of particular interest for both applications. To determine the release kinetics of hydrogen from tungsten, tungsten rods irradiated with 800 MeV protons in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) to high exposures as part of the APT project have been examined. Hydrogen evolution from the tungsten has been measured using a dedicated mass-spectrometer system by subjecting the specimens to an essentially linear temperature ramp from ∼300 to ∼1500 K. Release profiles are compared with predictions obtained using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program (TMAP4). The measurements show that for high proton doses, the majority of the hydrogen is released gradually, starting at about 900 K and reaching a maximum at about 1400 K, where it drops fairly rapidly. Comparisons with TMAP show quite reasonable agreement using a trap energy of 1.4 eV and a trap density of ∼7%. There is a small additional release fraction occurring at ∼550 K, which is believed to be associated with low-energy trapping at or near the surface, and, therefore, was not included in the bulk TMAP model

Hydrogen release from 800 MeV proton-irradiated tungsten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliver, B.M. E-mail: brian.oliver@pnl.gov; Venhaus, T.J.; Causey, R.A.; Garner, F.A.; Maloy, S.A

2002-12-01

Tungsten irradiated in spallation neutron sources, such as those proposed for the accelerator production of tritium (APT) project, will contain large quantities of generated helium and hydrogen gas. Tungsten used in proposed fusion reactors will also be exposed to neutrons, and the generated protium will be accompanied by deuterium and tritium diffusing in from the plasma-facing surface. The release kinetics of these gases during various off-normal scenarios involving loss of coolant and after heat-induced rises in temperature are of particular interest for both applications. To determine the release kinetics of hydrogen from tungsten, tungsten rods irradiated with 800 MeV protons in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) to high exposures as part of the APT project have been examined. Hydrogen evolution from the tungsten has been measured using a dedicated mass-spectrometer system by subjecting the specimens to an essentially linear temperature ramp from {approx}300 to {approx}1500 K. Release profiles are compared with predictions obtained using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program (TMAP4). The measurements show that for high proton doses, the majority of the hydrogen is released gradually, starting at about 900 K and reaching a maximum at about 1400 K, where it drops fairly rapidly. Comparisons with TMAP show quite reasonable agreement using a trap energy of 1.4 eV and a trap density of {approx}7%. There is a small additional release fraction occurring at {approx}550 K, which is believed to be associated with low-energy trapping at or near the surface, and, therefore, was not included in the bulk TMAP model.

Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foerster, G.

2002-07-01

Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

An analysis of ingestion doses from a range of postulated Magnox reactor releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nair, S.

1985-06-01

An analysis has been carried out of ingestion doses from a range of postulated Magnox reactor releases to atmosphere. Calculations were made of the dose to the adult, ten year old child and one year old child, which showed the one year old child to receive the highest dose. Detailed studies were made of the significance of the ingestion dose to the one year old child in relation to other exposure routes. The ingestion dose was also analysed in terms of the contributing critical organs, foods and nuclides. Approximate calculations were also made of the dependence of the ingestion dose on the time of year when the release occurs. The results of the analysis were used to derive a set of release-specific Emergency Action Guidance Levels (EAGLs) of critical nuclide concentrations in the critical foods, which comply with NRPB's ingestion ERL recommendations. The EAGLs were supplemented with a corresponding set of EAGLs for grass, for use in situations where crop samples were not readily available. (author)

Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

2015-03-01

Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Analysis of fuel centre temperatures and fission gas release data from the IFPE Database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schubert, A.; Lassmann, K.; Van Uffelen, P.; Van de Laar, J.; Elenkov, D.; Asenov, S.; Boneva, S.; Djourelov, N.; Georgieva, M.

2003-01-01

The present work has continued the analysis of fuel centre temperatures and fission gas release, calculated with standard options of the TRANSURANUS code. The calculations are compared to experimental data from the International Fuel Performance Experiments (IFPE) database. It is reported an analysis regarding UO 2 fuel for Western-type reactors: Fuel centre temperatures measured in the experiments Contact 1 and Contact 2 (in-pile tests of 2 rods performed at the Siloe reactor in Grenoble, France, closely simulating commercial PWR conditions); Fission gas release data derived from post-irradiation examinations of 9 fuel rods belonging to the High-Burnup Effects Programme, task 3 (HBEP3). The results allow for a comparison of predictions by TRANSURANUS for the mentioned Western-type fuels with those done previously for Russian-type WWER fuel. The comparison has been extended to include fuel centre temperatures as well as fission gas release. The present version of TRANSURANUS includes a model that calculates the production of Helium. The amount of produced Helium is compared to the measured and to the calculated release of the fission gases Xenon and Krypton

The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

Science.gov (United States)

Ceran, Bartosz

2017-11-01

The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

ANSYS workbench tutorial release 14 structural & thermal analysis using the ANSYS workbench release 14 environment

CERN Document Server

Lawrence, Kent L

2012-01-01

The exercises in ANSYS Workbench Tutorial Release 14 introduce you to effective engineering problem solving through the use of this powerful modeling, simulation and optimization software suite. Topics that are covered include solid modeling, stress analysis, conduction/convection heat transfer, thermal stress, vibration, elastic buckling and geometric/material nonlinearities. It is designed for practicing and student engineers alike and is suitable for use with an organized course of instruction or for self-study. The compact presentation includes just over 100 end-of-chapter problems covering all aspects of the tutorials.

Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

1992-11-01

Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

HABIT, Toxic and Radioactive Release Hazards in Reactor Control Room

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stage, S.A.

2005-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: HABIT is a package of computer codes designed to be used for the evaluation of control room habitability in the event of an accidental release of toxic chemicals or radioactive materials. 2 - Methods: Given information about the design of a nuclear power plant, a scenario for the release of toxic or radionuclides, and information about the air flows and protection systems of the control room, HABIT can be used to estimate the chemical exposure or radiological dose to control room personnel

Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.; Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M.; Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E.

2007-01-01

A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

Gas chromatography/sniffing port analysis evaluated for aroma release from rehydrated French beans (Phaseolus vulgaris).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruth, van S.M.; Roozen, J.P.; Cozijnsen, J.L.

1996-01-01

The technique of gas chromatography/sniffing port analysis was evaluated for studying the release of aroma compounds from rehydrated diced French beans. The aroma compounds 2-—methylbutanal and hexanal were released at a constant rate over time. An identical selection of odour active compounds was

Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hosmer, Hilary

2000-01-01

.... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

Release of radionuclides following severe accident in interim storage facility. Source term determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morandi, S.; Mariani, M.; Giacobbo, F.; Covini, R.

2006-01-01

Among the severe accidents that can cause the release of radionuclides from an interim storage facility, with a consequent relevant radiological impact on the population, there is the impact of an aircraft on the facility. In this work, a safety assessment analysis for the case of an aircraft crash into an interim storage facility is tackled. To this aim a methodology, based upon DOE, IAEA and NUREG standard procedures and upon conservative yet realistic hypothesis, has been developed in order to evaluate the total radioactivity, source term, released to the biosphere in consequence of the impact, without recurring to the use of complicated numerical codes. The procedure consists in the identification of the accidental scenarios, in the evaluation of the consequent damage to the building structures and to the waste packages and in the determination of the total release of radionuclides through the building-atmosphere interface. The methodology here developed has been applied to the case of an aircraft crash into an interim storage facility currently under design. Results show that in case of perforation followed by a fire incident the total released activity would be greater of some orders of magnitude with respect to the case of mere perforation. (author)

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Micromagnetic Cancer Cell Immobilization and Release for Real-Time Single Cell Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaiswal, Devina; Rad, Armin Tahmasbi [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States); Nieh, Mu-Ping [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States); Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Polymer Program, Institute of Materials Science, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Claffey, Kevin P. [Department of Cell Biology, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, CT 06030 (United States); Hoshino, Kazunori, E-mail: hoshino@engr.uconn.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States)

2017-04-01

Understanding the interaction of live cells with macromolecules is crucial for designing efficient therapies. Considering the functional heterogeneity found in cancer cells, real-time single cell analysis is necessary to characterize responses. In this study, we have designed and fabricated a microfluidic channel with patterned micromagnets which can temporarily immobilize the cells during analysis and release them after measurements. The microchannel is composed of plain coverslip top and bottom panels to facilitate easy microscopic observation and undisturbed application of analytes to the cells. Cells labeled with functionalized magnetic beads were immobilized in the device with an efficiency of 90.8±3.6%. Since the micromagnets are made of soft magnetic material (Ni), they released cells when external magnetic field was turned off from the channel. This allows the reuse of the channel for a new sample. As a model drug analysis, the immobilized breast cancer cells (MCF7) were exposed to fluorescent lipid nanoparticles and association and dissociation were measured through fluorescence analysis. Two concentrations of nanoparticles, 0.06 µg/ml and 0.08 µg/ml were tested and time lapse images were recorded and analyzed. The microfluidic device was able to provide a microenvironment for sample analysis, making it an efficient platform for real-time analysis.

NegaWatt 2011-2050 scenario - Hypotheses and method. Technical report, May 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

This report proposes an analysis of the negaWatt 2011 scenario. It describes in detail the methodology adopted to elaborate this prospective scenario, and presents the major part of the hypotheses which structure this scenario. A first part presents the approach and methodology (constraints, scenario, model). The second part addresses the issue of energy saving and energy efficiency through a sector-based analysis (housing and office building, transports, industrial and agricultural production). The third part studies the substitution by renewable energies through a supply analysis: energy production based on biomass, renewable energies, and fissile and fossil energies. It outlines the major role of grids in the supply-demand balance. The results of the negaWatt 2011 scenario are presented in terms of final energy, primary energies, and impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses and results related to the different sectors (building, transports, industry and agriculture, energy production) are given in appendix

Nanoscale Coloristic Pigments: Upper Limits on Releases from Pigmented Plastic during Environmental Aging, In Food Contact, and by Leaching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neubauer, Nicole; Scifo, Lorette; Navratilova, Jana

2017-01-01

The life cycle of nanoscale pigments in plastics may cause environmental or human exposure by various release scenarios. We investigated spontaneous and induced release with mechanical stress during/after simulated sunlight and rain degradation of polyethylene (PE) with organic and inorganic pigm...... investigated scenarios, with upper limits of 10 mg/m2 or 1600 particles/mL. This is the first holistic confirmation that pigment nanomaterials remain strongly contained in a plastic that has low diffusion and high persistence such as the polyolefin High Density Polyethylene (HDPE)....

Hydrogen Release From 800-MeV Proton-Irradiated Tungsten

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliver, Brian M.; Venhaus, Thomas J.; Causey, Rion A.; Garner, Francis A.; Maloy, Stuart A.

2002-01-01

Tungsten irradiated in spallation neutron sources such as those proposed for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) project, or in proposed fusion reactors, will contain large quantities of generated helium and hydrogen gas. In the APT, spallation neutrons would be generated by the interaction of high energy (∼1 GeV) protons with solid tungsten rods or cylinders. In fusion reactors, tungsten used in a tokamak diverter will contain hydrogen, as well as deuterium and tritium diffusing in from the plasma-facing surface. The release kinetics of these gases during various off-normal scenarios involving loss of coolant and afterheat-induced rises in temperature is of particular interest for both applications. To determine the release kinetics of hydrogen from tungsten, tungsten rods irradiated with 800 MeV protons in the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANCE) to high exposures as part of the APT project have been examined. Hydrogen evolution from the tungsten was measured using a dedicated mass spectrometer system by subjecting the specimens to an essentially linear temperature ramp from ∼323 K to ∼1473 K. Release profiles are compared with predictions obtained using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program (TMAP4). Input parameters for the modeling, consisting of diffusivity, recombination rate coefficient, and trapping, are discussed. The measurements show that for high proton doses, the majority of the hydrogen is released gradually, starting at about 900 K and reaching a maximum at about 1400 K, where it drops fairly rapidly. Comparisons with TMAP show reasonable agreement at high proton dose using a trap value of 1.4 eV and a trap density of 3%. There is also a small release fraction occurring at ∼600 K which predominates at lower proton doses, and which is relatively independent of dose. This lower-temperature release is predicted by TMAP if no traps are assumed, suggesting that this release may represent an adsorbed surface component

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the scenario simulation with RELAP/SCDAP and MELCOR codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia J, T.; Cardenas V, J.

2015-09-01

A methodology was implemented for analysis of uncertainty in simulations of scenarios with RELAP/SCDAP V- 3.4 bi-7 and MELCOR V-2.1 codes, same that are used to perform safety analysis in the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias (CNSNS). The uncertainty analysis methodology chosen is a probabilistic method of type Propagation of uncertainty of the input parameters to the departure parameters. Therefore, it began with the selection of the input parameters considered uncertain and are considered of high importance in the scenario for its direct effect on the output interest variable. These parameters were randomly sampled according to intervals of variation or probability distribution functions assigned by expert judgment to generate a set of input files that were run through the simulation code to propagate the uncertainty to the output parameters. Then, through the use or ordered statistical and formula Wilks, was determined that the minimum number of executions required to obtain the uncertainty bands that include a population of 95% at a confidence level of 95% in the results is 93, is important to mention that in this method that number of executions does not depend on the number of selected input parameters. In the implementation routines in Fortran 90 that allowed automate the process to make the uncertainty analysis in transients for RELAP/SCDAP code were generated. In the case of MELCOR code for severe accident analysis, automation was carried out through complement Dakota Uncertainty incorporated into the Snap platform. To test the practical application of this methodology, two analyzes were performed: the first with the simulation of closing transient of the main steam isolation valves using the RELAP/SCDAP code obtaining the uncertainty band of the dome pressure of the vessel; while in the second analysis, the accident simulation of the power total loss (Sbo) was carried out with the Macarol code obtaining the uncertainty band for the

Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

1998-01-01

The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

Measuring Nanomaterial Release from Carbon Nanotube Composites: Review of the State of the Science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, Stacey; Wohlleben, Wendel; Doa, Maria; Nowack, Bernd; Clancy, Shaun; Canady, Richard; Maynard, Andrew

2015-01-01

Hazard studies of “as-produced” nanomaterials are increasingly available, yet a critical gap exists in exposure science that may impede safe development of nanomaterials. The gap is that we do not understand what is actually released because nanomaterials can change when released in ways that are not understood. We also generally do not have methods capable of quantitatively measuring what is released to support dose assessment. This review presents a case study of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) for the measurement challenge to bridge this gap. As the use and value of MWCNTs increases, methods to measure what is released in ways relevant to risk evaluation are critically needed if products containing these materials are to be economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable. This review draws on the input of over 50 experts engaged in a program of workshops and technical report writing to address the release of MWCNTs from nanocomposite materials across their life cycle. The expert analyses reveals that new and sophisticated methods are required to measure and assess MWCNT exposures for realistic exposure scenarios. Furthermore, method requirements vary with the materials and conditions of release across life cycle stages of products. While review shows that the likelihood of significant release of MWCNTs appears to be low for many stages of composite life cycle, measurement methods are needed so that exposures from MWCNT-composites are understood and managed. In addition, there is an immediate need to refocus attention from study of “as-produced” nanomaterials to coordinated research on actual release scenarios. (paper)

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quirion, Philippe

2013-04-01

We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO 2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO 2 , without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

Scenario design : adaptive architecture for command and control experiment eight

OpenAIRE

Clark, Frankie J.

2002-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The Adaptive Architectures for Command and Control (A2C2) project is an ongoing research effort sponsored by the Office of Naval Research to explore adaptation in joint command and control. The objective of the project's eighth experiment is to study the adjustments that organizations make when they are confronted with a scenario for which their organizational is ill-suited. To accomplish this, teams will each be in one of two fundame...

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

Science.gov (United States)

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative data analysis with SPSS release 8 for Windows a guide for social scientists

CERN Document Server

Bryman, Alan

2002-01-01

The latest edition of this best-selling introduction to Quantitative Data Analysis through the use of a computer package has been completely updated to accommodate the needs of users of SPSS Release 8 for Windows. Like its predecessor, it provides a non-technical approach to quantitative data analysis and a user-friendly introduction to the widely used SPSS for Windows. It assumes no previous familiarity with either statistics or computing but takes the reader step-by-step through the techniques, reinforced by exercises for further practice. Techniques explained in Quantitative Data Analysis with SPSS Release 8 for Windows include: * correlation * simple and multiple regression * multivariate analysis of variance and covariance * factor analysis The book also covers issues such as sampling, statistical significance, conceptualization and measurement and the selection of appropriate tests. For further information or to download the book's datasets, please visit the webstite: http://www.routledge.com/textbooks/...

Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

2001-01-01

UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

Plant incident progress scenario analysis for nuclear emergency exercise of Fukui Pref. 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatebe, Yasumasa; Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Minami, Noritoshi

2010-01-01

Severe accident scenario was analyzed to assist the nuclear emergency exercise of Fukui prefecture in 2009. The evaluation of the postulated disaster was evaluated based on analysis result, including the time of occurrence of specified events, response of the plant to the AM measures, etc. The evaluation results are as follows: (1) loss of core cooling took place about 7 hours after, abnormal leakage of fission products from containment vessel to the containment annulus started about 17 hours after and the disaster terminated about 46 hours after the initiation of the accident, (2) although multiple failures of the engineered safety system and failure of AM measures were postulated in the accident scenario, the integrity of the containment vessel could be maintained successfully for a long term, if the AM measures are taken to protect the containment vessel. (3) according to the evaluation of radiation dose rate during the emergency response assuming the operation of recirculation mode using containment spray A, the dose rate could be too high for the operators to work not only in the containment spray A area but also in the another containment spray heat exchanger and the residual heat removal system heat exchanger areas. (author)

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

Influences of use activities and waste management on environmental releases of engineered nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigger, Henning; Hackmann, Stephan; Zimmermann, Till; Köser, Jan; Thöming, Jorg; Gleich, Arnim von

2015-01-01

Engineered nanomaterials (ENM) offer enhanced or new functionalities and properties that are used in various products. This also entails potential environmental risks in terms of hazard and exposure. However, hazard and exposure assessment for ENM still suffer from insufficient knowledge particularly for product-related releases and environmental fate and behavior. This study therefore analyzes the multiple impacts of the product use, the properties of the matrix material, and the related waste management system (WMS) on the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) by applying nine prospective life cycle release scenarios based on reasonable assumptions. The products studied here are clothing textiles treated with silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), since they constitute a controversial application. Surprisingly, the results show counter-intuitive increases by a factor of 2.6 in PEC values for the air compartment in minimal AgNP release scenarios. Also, air releases can shift from washing to wearing activity; their associated release points may shift accordingly, potentially altering release hot spots. Additionally, at end-of-life, the fraction of AgNP-residues contained on exported textiles can be increased by 350% when assuming short product lifespans and globalized WMS. It becomes evident that certain combinations of use activities, matrix material characteristics, and WMS can influence the regional PEC by several orders of magnitude. Thus, in the light of the findings and expected ENM market potential, future assessments should consider these aspects to derive precautionary design alternatives and to enable prospective global and regional risk assessments. - Highlights: • Textile use activities and two waste management systems (WMSs) are investigated. • Matrix material and use activities determine the ENM release. • Counter-intuitive shifts of releases to air can happen during usage. • WMS export can increase by 350% in case of short service life and

Influences of use activities and waste management on environmental releases of engineered nanomaterials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wigger, Henning, E-mail: hwigger@uni-bremen.de [Faculty of Production Engineering, Department of Technological Design and Development, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen (Germany); Hackmann, Stephan [UFT Center for Environmental Research and Sustainable Technology, Department of General and Theoretical Ecology, University of Bremen, Leobener Str., 28359 Bremen (Germany); Zimmermann, Till [Faculty of Production Engineering, Department of Technological Design and Development, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen (Germany); ARTEC — Research Center for Sustainability Studies, Enrique-Schmidt-Str. 7, 28359 Bremen (Germany); Köser, Jan [UFT Center for Environmental Research and Sustainable Technology, Department of Sustainable Chemistry, University of Bremen, Leobener Str., 28359 Bremen (Germany); Thöming, Jorg [UFT Center for Environmental Research and Sustainable Technology, Department of Sustainable Chemical Engineering, University of Bremen, Leobener Str., 28359 Bremen (Germany); Gleich, Arnim von [Faculty of Production Engineering, Department of Technological Design and Development, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen (Germany); ARTEC — Research Center for Sustainability Studies, Enrique-Schmidt-Str. 7, 28359 Bremen (Germany)

2015-12-01

Engineered nanomaterials (ENM) offer enhanced or new functionalities and properties that are used in various products. This also entails potential environmental risks in terms of hazard and exposure. However, hazard and exposure assessment for ENM still suffer from insufficient knowledge particularly for product-related releases and environmental fate and behavior. This study therefore analyzes the multiple impacts of the product use, the properties of the matrix material, and the related waste management system (WMS) on the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) by applying nine prospective life cycle release scenarios based on reasonable assumptions. The products studied here are clothing textiles treated with silver nanoparticles (AgNPs), since they constitute a controversial application. Surprisingly, the results show counter-intuitive increases by a factor of 2.6 in PEC values for the air compartment in minimal AgNP release scenarios. Also, air releases can shift from washing to wearing activity; their associated release points may shift accordingly, potentially altering release hot spots. Additionally, at end-of-life, the fraction of AgNP-residues contained on exported textiles can be increased by 350% when assuming short product lifespans and globalized WMS. It becomes evident that certain combinations of use activities, matrix material characteristics, and WMS can influence the regional PEC by several orders of magnitude. Thus, in the light of the findings and expected ENM market potential, future assessments should consider these aspects to derive precautionary design alternatives and to enable prospective global and regional risk assessments. - Highlights: • Textile use activities and two waste management systems (WMSs) are investigated. • Matrix material and use activities determine the ENM release. • Counter-intuitive shifts of releases to air can happen during usage. • WMS export can increase by 350% in case of short service life and

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

Cost utility, budget impact, and scenario analysis of racecadotril in addition to oral rehydration for acute diarrhea in children in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rautenberg TA

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Tamlyn Anne Rautenberg,1,2 Ute Zerwes,3 Way Seah Lee4 1IGES Institut GmbH, Berlin, Germany; 2Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division (HEARD, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 3Assessment in Medicine GmbH, Lörrach, Germany; 4Department of Pediatrics, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Objective: To perform cost utility (CU and budget impact (BI analyses augmented by scenario analyses of critical model structure components to evaluate racecadotril as adjuvant to oral rehydration solution (ORS for children under 5 years with acute diarrhea in Malaysia.Methods: A CU model was adapted to evaluate racecadotril plus ORS vs ORS alone for acute diarrhea in children younger than 5 years from a Malaysian public payer’s perspective. A bespoke BI analysis was undertaken in addition to detailed scenario analyses with respect to critical model structure components.Results: According to the CU model, the intervention is less costly and more effective than comparator for the base case with a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of –RM 1,272,833/quality-adjusted life year (USD –312,726/quality-adjusted life year in favor of the intervention. According to the BI analysis (assuming an increase of 5% market share per year for racecadotril+ORS for 5 years, the total cumulative incremental percentage reduction in health care expenditure for diarrhea in children is 0.136578%, resulting in a total potential cumulative cost savings of –RM 73,193,603 (USD –17,983,595 over a 5-year period. Results hold true across a range of plausible scenarios focused on critical model components.Conclusion: Adjuvant racecadotril vs ORS alone is potentially cost-effective from a Malaysian public payer perspective subject to the assumptions and limitations of the model. BI analysis shows that this translates into potential cost savings for the Malaysian public health care system. Results hold true at evidence-based base

Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, Claude; Bacher, Pierre

2011-01-01

This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

Study on the FBR cycle introduction scenario. 4. Evaluation of the FBR cycle introduction scenario from the viewpoints of the fuel cycle requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Shiotani, Hiroki; Hirao, Kazunori

2003-07-01

This report is intended to explain the outline of the scenario studies on FBR (Fast Breeder Reactor) cycle introduction. Recently, people value the reduction of environmental impact in addition to the recycle of energy resources and the energy security in these scenario studies. This report summarizes the analysis about the necessity of plutonium recycling in LWR (Light water Reactor) from short-term view and about the necessity of FBR cycle introduction from a long-term view in Japan, by comparing 'FBR scenario' with 'LWR once-through scenario' and 'Pu recycle in LWR scenario', from the viewpoints of cumulative uranium demand, spent fuel storage, radioactive waste arising, etc. It becomes clear that the plutonium recycling in LWR has a good effect on the reduction of spent fuel storage and the cumulative natural uranium demand before FBR cycle introduction, from short-term view (20-30 years). On the other hand, this analysis also shows that there is much effect of FBR deployment not only on saving amount of uranium use and energy security but also on reduction of high-level radioactive waste (spent fuels and vitrified waste) and minor actinide arising, from long-term view (100-200 years). (author)

Regulatory analysis on criteria for the release of patients administered radioactive material. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, S.; McGuire, S.A.

1997-02-01

This regulatory analysis was developed to respond to three petitions for rulemaking to amend 10 CFR parts 20 and 35 regarding release of patients administered radioactive material. The petitions requested revision of these regulations to remove the ambiguity that existed between the 1-millisievert (0.1-rem) total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) public dose limit in Part 20, adopted in 1991, and the activity-based release limit in 10 CFR 35.75 that, in some instances, would permit release of individuals in excess of the current public dose limit. Three alternatives for resolution of the petitions were evaluated. Under Alternative 1, NRC would amend its patient release criteria in 10 CFR 35.75 to match the annual public dose limit in Part 20 of 1 millisievert (0.1 rem) TEDE. Alternative 2 would maintain the status quo of using the activity-based release criteria currently found in 10 CFR 35.75. Under Alternative 3, the NRC would revise the release criteria in 10 CFR 35.75 to specify a dose limit of 5 millisieverts (0.5 rem) TEDE.

Regulatory analysis on criteria for the release of patients administered radioactive material. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, S.; McGuire, S.A.

1997-02-01

This regulatory analysis was developed to respond to three petitions for rulemaking to amend 10 CFR parts 20 and 35 regarding release of patients administered radioactive material. The petitions requested revision of these regulations to remove the ambiguity that existed between the 1-millisievert (0.1-rem) total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) public dose limit in Part 20, adopted in 1991, and the activity-based release limit in 10 CFR 35.75 that, in some instances, would permit release of individuals in excess of the current public dose limit. Three alternatives for resolution of the petitions were evaluated. Under Alternative 1, NRC would amend its patient release criteria in 10 CFR 35.75 to match the annual public dose limit in Part 20 of 1 millisievert (0.1 rem) TEDE. Alternative 2 would maintain the status quo of using the activity-based release criteria currently found in 10 CFR 35.75. Under Alternative 3, the NRC would revise the release criteria in 10 CFR 35.75 to specify a dose limit of 5 millisieverts (0.5 rem) TEDE

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake?The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions.Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

Environmental risk analysis for offshore oil and gas activities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)