Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

2018-04-13

Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

2018-04-10

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Andres Calvache

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1979-01-01

The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sascha Düerkop

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

Status report on research programmes of the Commission of European Communities related to risk evaluation of geological disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girardi, F.

1977-01-01

The programmes of the Commission of European Communities related to risk evaluation of geological disposal of radioactive waste are presented. The Joint Research Centre carries out theoretical modelling activities and a few selected experimental activities which are related to model development and verification. A set of contractual research activities, coordinated by the General Directorate of Research, Scientific Affairs and Education and set up primarily to encourage development of optimised waste management strategies will provide the many additional experimental data which are necessary for a realistic evaluation of long term hazard to man and the environment

Feasibility of using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Core Set for evaluation of fall-related risk factors in acute rehabilitation settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Shih W; Lin, Li F; Chou, Lin C; Wu, Mei J; Liao, Chun D; Liou, Tsan H

2016-04-01

Previously, we reported the use of an International Classification of Functioning (ICF) core set that can provide a holistic framework for evaluating the risk factors of falls; however, data on the feasibility of applying this core set are lacking. To investigate the feasibility of applying the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set in the case of patients in an acute-rehabilitation setting. A cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design. Acute-rehabilitation ward. A total of 273 patients who experienced fall at acute-rehabilitation ward. The data on falls were collected from the hospital's Nursing Information System (NIS) and the fall-reporting system (Adverse Event Reporting System, AERS) between 2010 and 2013. The relationship of both systems to the fall-related ICF core set was analyzed to assess the feasibility of their clinical application. We evaluated the feasibility of using the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set by using the frequency and the percentage of the fall patients in of the listed categories. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set category b735 (muscle tone functions) exhibited a high feasibility (85.95%) for clinical application, and the category b730 (muscle power functions) covered 77.11% of the patients. The feasibility of application of the category d410 (change basic body position) was also high in the case of all fall patients (81.69%). In the acute-rehabilitation setting, the feasibility of application of the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set is high. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set can help multidisciplinary teams develop fall-prevention strategies in acute rehabilitation wards.

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

Transient Severe Motion Artifact Related to Gadoxetate Disodium-Enhanced Liver MRI: Frequency and Risk Evaluation at a German Institution.

Science.gov (United States)

Well, Lennart; Rausch, Vanessa Hanna; Adam, Gerhard; Henes, Frank Oliver; Bannas, Peter

2017-07-01

Purpose  Varying frequencies (5 - 18 %) of contrast-related transient severe motion (TSM) imaging artifacts during gadoxetate disodium-enhanced arterial phase liver MRI have been reported. Since previous reports originated from the United States and Japan, we aimed to determine the frequency of TSM at a German institution and to correlate it with potential risk factors and previously published results. Materials and Methods  Two age- and sex-matched groups were retrospectively selected (gadoxetate disodium n = 89; gadobenate dimeglumine n = 89) from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI examinations in a single center. Respiratory motion-related artifacts in non-enhanced and dynamic phases were assessed independently by two readers blinded to contrast agents on a 4-point scale. Scores of ≥ 3 were considered as severe motion artifacts. Severe motion artifacts in arterial phases were considered as TSM if scores in all other phases were risk factors for TSM were evaluated via logistic regression analysis. Results  For gadoxetate disodium, the mean score for respiratory motion artifacts was significantly higher in the arterial phase (2.2 ± 0.9) compared to all other phases (1.6 ± 0.7) (p risk factors (all p > 0.05). Conclusion  We revealed a high frequency of TSM after injection of gadoxetate disodium at a German institution, substantiating the importance of a diagnosis-limiting phenomenon that so far has only been reported from the United States and Japan. In accordance with previous studies, we did not identify associated risk factors for TSM. Key Points:   · Gadoxetate disodium causes TSM in a relevant number of patients.. · The frequency of TSM is similar between the USA, Japan and Germany.. · To date, no validated risk factors for TSM could be identified.. Citation Format · Well L, Rausch VH, Adam G et al. Transient Severe Motion Artifact Related to Gadoxetate Disodium-Enhanced Liver MRI: Frequency and Risk Evaluation at a

Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcin Szpyrka

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Emotional reactions to alcohol-related words: Differences between low- and high-risk drinkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gantiva, Carlos; Delgado, Rafael; Romo-González, Tania

2015-11-01

Research that has examined responses to alcohol-related words in drinkers has mostly linked such responses to memory, attentional, and perceptual bias. However, studies of emotional processing in alcoholics have not received much attention. The main goal of the present study was to identify the features and differences of emotional responses to alcohol-related words in low- and high-risk drinkers. A total of 149 low-risk drinkers and 125 high-risk drinkers evaluated five alcohol-related words and 15 words from the Affective Norms for English Words in the dimensions of valence, arousal, and dominance using the Self-Assessment Manikin. The results indicated that high-risk drinkers evaluated alcohol-related words as more appetitive and arousing. These results, together with findings in the attention and memory research literature, suggest that alcohol-related words can serve as conditioned cues in alcohol consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

1985-08-01

This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-01-01

The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

1990-02-01

Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

1992-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

Risk-benefit evaluation of fish from Chinese markets: Nutrients and contaminants in 24 fish species from five big cities and related assessment for human health

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Zhen-Yu, E-mail: zdu@nifes.no [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Zhang, Jian [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 (China); Department of Biomedicine, University of Bergen (Norway); Wang, Chunrong; Li, Lixiang; Man, Qingqing [Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 (China); Lundebye, Anne-Katrine; Froyland, Livar [National Institute of Nutrition and Seafood Research (NIFES), N-5817 Bergen (Norway)

2012-02-01

The risks and benefits of fish from markets in Chinese cities have not previously been fully evaluated. In the present study, 24 common fish species with more than 400 individual samples were collected from markets from five big Chinese cities in 2007. The main nutrients and contaminants were measured and the risk-benefit was evaluated based on recommended nutrient intakes and risk level criteria set by relevant authorities. The comprehensive effects of nutrients and contaminants in marine oily fish were also evaluated using the data of two related human dietary intervention trials performed in dyslipidemic Chinese men and women in 2008 and 2010, respectively. The results showed that concentrations of contaminants analyzed including DDT, PCB{sub 7}, arsenic and cadmium were much lower than their corresponding maximum limits with the exception of the mercury concentration in common carp. Concentrations of POPs and n-3 LCPUFA, mainly EPA and DHA, were positively associated with the lipid content of the fish. With a daily intake of 80-100 g marine oily fish, the persistent organic pollutants in fish would not counteract the beneficial effects of n-3 LCPUFA in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers. Marine oily fish provided more effective protection against CVD than lean fish, particularly for the dyslipidemic populations. The risk-benefit assessment based on the present daily aquatic product intake in Chinese urban residents (44.9 and 62.3 g for the average values for all cities and big cities, respectively) indicated that fish, particularly marine oily fish, can be regularly consumed to achieve optimal nutritional benefits from n-3 LCPUFA, without causing significant contaminant-related health risks. However, the potential health threat from contaminants in fish should still be emphasized for the populations consuming large quantities of fish, particularly wild fish. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We collected 24 fish species with more than

Association between firearm ownership, firearm-related risk and risk reduction behaviours and alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Science.gov (United States)

Wintemute, Garen J

2011-12-01

Alcohol use and firearm ownership are risk factors for violent injury and death. To determine whether firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours, the author conducted a cross-sectional study using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for eight states in the USA from 1996 to 1997 (the most recent data available). Altogether, 15 474 respondents provided information on firearm exposure. After adjustment for demographics and state of residence, firearm owners were more likely than those with no firearms at home to have ≥5 drinks on one occasion (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.50), to drink and drive (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.39) and to have ≥60 drinks per month (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.83). Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away. The author concludes that firearm ownership and specific firearm-related behaviours are associated with alcohol-related risk behaviours.

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation

Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

Decreasing relative risk premium

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Frank

2007-01-01

such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

Risk-based evaluation tool for safety-related maintenance involving scaffolding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevens, C.; Azizi, M.; Massman, M.

1988-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has expressed a general concern that transient materials in and around safety systems at nuclear power plants represent a seismic safety hazard to the plant, in particular, the uncontrolled use of scaffolding during maintenance activities. Currently, most plants perform a seismic safety analysis for all uses of scaffolding near safety-related equipment to determine appropriate tie-down locations, scaffolding reinforcements, etc. This is both time-consuming and, for the most part, unnecessary. A workable engineering solution based on risk analysis techniques has been developed and is being used at the Palo Verde nuclear generating station (PVNGS)

Evaluating prevalence and risk factors of building-related symptoms among office workers: Seasonal characteristics of symptoms and psychosocial and physical environmental factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Azuma, Kenichi; Ikeda, Koichi; Kagi, Naoki; Yanagi, U; Osawa, Haruki

2017-04-12

Psychosocial and environmental factors at the workplace play a significant role in building-related symptoms (BRSs). Environmental factors change during summer cooling and winter heating using air-conditioning systems. Thus, significant risk factors in each season need to be clarified. A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted during summer in Japan and seasonal differences between summer and winter were evaluated. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to 489 offices. Possible risk factors for BRSs associated with the work environment, indoor air quality, and job stressors were examined by multiple regression analyses. Among people having at least one BRS, the prevalence of BRSs in summer (27.8%) was slightly higher than that in winter (24.9%). High prevalence was observed for eye and nasal symptoms related to dryness and general symptoms related to psychological distress in both seasons. Analyses revealed that dryness of air was an important and significant risk factor associated with BRSs, and job stressors were significantly associated with general symptoms in both seasons. Conversely, humidity was a significant risk factor of general symptoms in summer (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.43). Carpeting, recently painted walls, and unpleasant chemical odors in summer and noise, dust and dirt, and unpleasant odors such as body or food odors in both seasons were significant risk factors for BRSs. Improvements in the physical environmental qualities in an office throughout the year are important along with the reduction in psychological distress related to work.

Review on risk factors related to lower back disorders at workplace

Science.gov (United States)

A' Tifah Jaffar, Nur; Nasrull Abdol Rahman, Mohd

2017-08-01

This review examines the evidence of the occurrence of risk exposure on work-related lower back disorders in the workplace. This review also investigates potential interactions between the risk factors in the workplace which include heavy physical work risk factor, static work postures risk factor, frequent bending and twisting risk factor, lifting risk factor, pushing and pulling risk factor, repetitive work risk factor, vibration risk factor, psychological and psychosocial risk factor that may be associated with symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders of lower back. These risk factors can reinforce each other and their influence can also be mediated by cultural or social factors. A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching using databases and the searching strategy was used combined keyword for risk factors, work-related lower back disorders, heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor. A total of 67 articles were identified and reviewed. The risk factors identified that related for low back disorder are seven which are heavy physical work, static work postures, frequent bending and twisting, lifting, pushing and pulling, repetitive work, vibration, psychological and psychosocial risk factor and the level of evidence supporting the relationship with lower back disorders also described such as strong, moderate, insufficient, limited and no evidence. This result confirms that, existing of higher physical and psychosocial demand related to reported risk factors of low back disorders. The result also showed that previous reviews had evaluated relationship between risk factors of low back disorders and specific types of musculoskeletal disorders. This review also highlights the scarves evidence regarding some of the frequently reported risk factors for work related lower back disorders.

A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

2011-01-01

In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior.

Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

2016-02-01

Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartman, Luiz Carlos

2009-01-01

The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders : a review of risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoozemans, M J; Van Der Beek, Allard J.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Dijk, F.J.H.; van der Woude, L H

The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

Pushing and pulling in relation to musculoskeletal disorders: a review of risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoozemans, Marco; van der Beek, A.J.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.; Dijk, F.J.H.

1998-01-01

The objective was to review the literature on risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders related to pushing and pulling. The risk factors have been described and evaluated from four perspectives: epidemiology, psychophysics, physiology, and biomechanics. Epidemiological studies have shown, based on

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

2016-01-01

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

Suicide risk in relation to psychiatric hospitalization: evidence based on longitudinal registers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping; Nordentoft, Merete

2005-01-01

history increases suicide risk relatively more in women than in men; and suicide risk is substantial for substance disorders and for multiple admissions in women but not in men. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk peaks in periods immediately after admission and discharge. The risk is particularly high in persons...... with affective disorders and in persons with short hospital treatment. These findings should lead to systematic evaluation of suicide risk among inpatients before discharge and corresponding outpatient treatment, and family support should be initiated immediately after the discharge...

Mammary radiotherapy and patients-risks management with continue evaluation of clinical indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Untereiner, M.; Frederick, B.; Burie, D.; Cavuto, C.; Rob, L.; Coiffier, N.; Colet, M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The breast irradiation represents 25% of radiotherapy indication in the radiotherapy centers. The modeling of the management of complications risks and recurrences in relation with mammary irradiation constitutes a methodological base allowing to develop a general concept for any other indication of radiotherapy. The objective of the study was a continuous evaluation of clinical risks to get indicators of the therapy results: for the institution, to get an auto-evaluation tool of the functioning (continuous evaluation of clinical results, identification of sentinel events); for the patients to get precise and detailed information on the risks linked to their treatment (communication of clinical results, comparison with the literature, benchmarking). (N.C.)

Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, B.H.

1998-01-01

This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

1996-02-15

To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

Experiences, considerations and emotions relating to cardiogenetic evaluation in relatives of young sudden cardiac death victims

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Werf, Christian; Onderwater, Astrid T.; van Langen, Irene M.; Smets, Ellen M. A.

2014-01-01

Relatives of young sudden cardiac death (SCD) victims are at increased risk of carrying a potentially fatal inherited cardiac disease. Hence, it is recommended to perform an autopsy on the victim and to refer his or her relatives to a cardiogenetics clinic for a full evaluation to identify those at

Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

2012-02-15

The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanorsdale, C.R.

1991-01-01

The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis and related risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Nassaji-Zavareh, M; Ghorbani, R

2007-08-01

Peripheral intravenous catheter-related phlebitis is a common and significant problem in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the incidence of phlebitis and to evaluate some important related factors. 300 patients admitted to medical and surgical wards of hospitals in Semnan, Iran from April 2003 to February 2004 were prospectively studied. Variables evaluated were age, gender, site and size of catheter, type of insertion and underlying conditions (diabetes mellitus, trauma, infectious disease and burns). Phlebitis was defined when at least four criteria were fulfilled (erythema, pain, tenderness, warmth, induration, palpable cord and swelling). Any patient who was discharged or their catheter removed before three days were excluded. Phlebitis occurred in 26 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI] 21- 31 percent) of patients. There was no significant relationship between age, catheter bore size, trauma and phlebitis. Related risk factors were gender (odds-ratio [OR] 1.50, 95 percent CI 1.01-2.22), site (OR 3.25, 95 percent CI 2.26-4.67) and type of insertion (OR 2.04, 95 percent CI 1.36-3.05) of catheter, diabetes mellitus (OR 7.78, 95 percent CI 4.59-13.21), infectious disease (OR 6.21, 95 percent CI 4.27-9.03) and burns (OR 3.96, 95 percent CI 3.26-4.82). Phlebitis is still an important and ongoing problem in medical practice. In patients with diabetes mellitus and infectious diseases, more attention is needed.

MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki

2014-01-01

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer....... We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41......,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated...

Evaluation of dental implants as a risk factor for the development of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw in breast cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuo, Akira; Hamada, Hayato; Takahashi, Hidetoshi; Okamoto, Ayako; Kaise, Hiroshi; Chikazu, Daichi

2016-09-01

It remains unclear whether dental implants are a risk factor for the development of bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ). We retrospectively evaluated the status of dental implants in patients given intravenous bisphosphonates (BPs) in a breast cancer cohort to elucidate the risk for BRONJ at the implant site. We established a BRONJ oral monitoring program for 247 breast cancer patients given intravenous BP in our institution. The 3-year cumulative incidence rate was determined. The systemic and local risk factors of 44 patients who completed comprehensive oral examinations were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. The 3-year cumulative incidence rate of the 247 patients was 0.074 % (8/247, 95 % CI 0.0081-0.014). In the 44 orally examined patients, 6 (13.6 %: 6/44) had dental implants. Of these 6 patients, 1 developed BRONJ at the implant site. There were no significant differences in the age, total BP treatment period, number of residual teeth, time of regular oral monitoring, oral hygiene level, or dental implant insertion. Although a case of ONJ was identified, dental implants which were inserted before intravenous BP administration were not a risk factor for the development of ONJ in breast cancer patients.

Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

Science.gov (United States)

Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

2014-10-01

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

1998-01-01

textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

Confusing Relative Risk with Absolute Risk Is Associated with More Enthusiastic Beliefs about the Value of Cancer Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Caverly, Tanner J; Prochazka, Allan V; Binswanger, Ingrid A; Kutner, Jean S; Matlock, Daniel D

2014-07-01

Reviews of how data are presented in medical literature document that the benefit from an intervention is often exaggerated relative to the harm (e.g., relative risk for benefit and absolute risk for harm). Such mismatched presentations may create unwarranted enthusiasm, especially among those who misinterpret the statistics presented. The objective was to determine whether misinterpretation of risk data predicts enthusiasm for cancer screening. The authors administered a survey with 14 items assessing beliefs about cancer screening and 6 items measuring data interpretation ability. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the association between data interpretation and enthusiasm for cancer screening, with adjustment for gender and year graduated from medical school. Eighty-eight of 139 physicians at a state-wide professional meeting returned completed surveys (63% response rate). Lower data interpretation scores were associated with higher enthusiasm for cancer screening scores (P = 0.004) in the adjusted primary analysis. Confusing relative risk with absolute risk appeared to drive the overall association. Biased presentations of risk data could affect general beliefs about the value of cancer screening, especially among physicians who uncritically accept mismatched presentations of data. © The Author(s) 2014.

Using FEMA FIS, HAZUS and WMOST to Evaluate Effectiveness of GI in Moderating Flood-Related Risks

Science.gov (United States)

The ability to accurately assess flood-related risks and costs as well as the effectiveness of green infrastructure on moderating those risks is critical for both emergency management and long-term planning. Potential flooding depths, land use and building conditions are needed ...

A macro-economic framework for evaluation of cyber security risks related to protection of intellectual property.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrijcic, Eva; Horowitz, Barry

2006-08-01

The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.

Risk considerations related to lung modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

1989-01-01

Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

[Occupational risk related to optical radiation exposure in construction workers].

Science.gov (United States)

Gobba, F; Modenese, A

2012-01-01

Optical Radiation is a relevant occupational risk in construction workers, mainly as a consequence of the exposure to the ultraviolet (UV) component of solar radiation (SR). Available data show that UV occupational limits are frequently exceeded in these workers, resulting in an increased occupational risk of various acute and chronic effects, mainly to skin and to the eye. One of the foremost is the carcinogenic effect: SR is indeed included in Group 1 IARC (carcinogenic to humans). UV exposure is related to an increase of the incidence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). The incidence of these tumors, especially CMM, is constantly increasing in Caucasians in the last 50 years. As a conclusion, an adequate evaluation of the occupational risk related to SR, and adequate preventive measures are essential in construction workers. The role of occupational physicians in prevention is fundamental.

Work related complaints of neck, shoulder and arm among computer office workers: a cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence and risk factors in a developing country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayawardana Naveen

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Complaints of arms, neck and shoulders (CANS is common among computer office workers. We evaluated an aetiological model with physical/psychosocial risk-factors. Methods We invited 2,500 computer office workers for the study. Data on prevalence and risk-factors of CANS were collected by validated Maastricht-Upper-extremity-Questionnaire. Workstations were evaluated by Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA Visual-Display-Terminal workstation-checklist. Participants' knowledge and awareness was evaluated by a set of expert-validated questions. A binary logistic regression analysis investigated relationships/correlations between risk-factors and symptoms. Results Sample size was 2,210. Mean age 30.8 ± 8.1 years, 50.8% were males. The 1-year prevalence of CANS was 56.9%, commonest region of complaint was forearm/hand (42.6%, followed by neck (36.7% and shoulder/arm (32.0%. In those with CANS, 22.7% had taken treatment from a health care professional, only in 1.1% seeking medical advice an occupation-related injury had been suspected/diagnosed. In addition 9.3% reported CANS-related absenteeism from work, while 15.4% reported CANS causing disruption of normal activities. A majority of evaluated workstations in all participants (88.4%, and in those with CANS (91.9% had OSHA non-compliant workstations. In the binary logistic regression analyses female gender, daily computer usage, incorrect body posture, bad work-habits, work overload, poor social support and poor ergonomic knowledge were associated with CANS and its' severity In a multiple logistic regression analysis controlling for age, gender and duration of occupation, incorrect body posture, bad work-habits and daily computer usage were significant independent predictors of CANS Conclusions The prevalence of work-related CANS among computer office workers in Sri Lanka, a developing, South Asian country is high and comparable to prevalence in developed countries

Work related complaints of neck, shoulder and arm among computer office workers: a cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence and risk factors in a developing country.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranasinghe, Priyanga; Perera, Yashasvi S; Lamabadusuriya, Dilusha A; Kulatunga, Supun; Jayawardana, Naveen; Rajapakse, Senaka; Katulanda, Prasad

2011-08-04

Complaints of arms, neck and shoulders (CANS) is common among computer office workers. We evaluated an aetiological model with physical/psychosocial risk-factors. We invited 2,500 computer office workers for the study. Data on prevalence and risk-factors of CANS were collected by validated Maastricht-Upper-extremity-Questionnaire. Workstations were evaluated by Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Visual-Display-Terminal workstation-checklist. Participants' knowledge and awareness was evaluated by a set of expert-validated questions. A binary logistic regression analysis investigated relationships/correlations between risk-factors and symptoms. Sample size was 2,210. Mean age 30.8 ± 8.1 years, 50.8% were males. The 1-year prevalence of CANS was 56.9%, commonest region of complaint was forearm/hand (42.6%), followed by neck (36.7%) and shoulder/arm (32.0%). In those with CANS, 22.7% had taken treatment from a health care professional, only in 1.1% seeking medical advice an occupation-related injury had been suspected/diagnosed. In addition 9.3% reported CANS-related absenteeism from work, while 15.4% reported CANS causing disruption of normal activities. A majority of evaluated workstations in all participants (88.4%,) and in those with CANS (91.9%) had OSHA non-compliant workstations. In the binary logistic regression analyses female gender, daily computer usage, incorrect body posture, bad work-habits, work overload, poor social support and poor ergonomic knowledge were associated with CANS and its' severity In a multiple logistic regression analysis controlling for age, gender and duration of occupation, incorrect body posture, bad work-habits and daily computer usage were significant independent predictors of CANS. The prevalence of work-related CANS among computer office workers in Sri Lanka, a developing, South Asian country is high and comparable to prevalence in developed countries. Work-related physical factors, psychosocial factors and

The Inverse Relation Between Risks and Benefits: The Role of Affect and Expertise.

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolowska, Joanna; Sleboda, Patrycja

2015-07-01

Although risk and benefits of risky activities are positively correlated in the real world, empirical results indicate that people perceive them as negatively correlated. The common explanation is that confounding benefits and losses stems from affect. In this article, we address the issue that has not been clearly established in studies on the affect heuristic: to what extent boundary conditions, such as judgments' generality and expertise, influence the presence of the inverse relation in judgments of hazards. These conditions were examined in four studies in which respondents evaluated general or specific benefits and risks of "affect-rich" and "affect-poor" hazards (ranging from investments to applications of stem cell research). In line with previous research, affect is defined as good or bad feelings integral to a stimulus. In contrast to previous research, affect is considered as related both to personal feelings and to social controversies associated with a hazard. Expertise is related to personal knowledge (laypersons vs. experts) as well as to objective knowledge (targets well vs. poorly known to science). The direct comparison of the input from personal and objective ignorance into the inverse relation has not been investigated previously. It was found that affect invoked by a hazard guides general but not specific judgments of its benefits and risks. Technical expertise helps to avoid simplified evaluations of consequences as long as they are well known to science. For new, poorly understood hazards (e.g., stem cell research), expertise does not protect from the perception of the inverse relation between benefits and risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Adolescents' perceived risk and personal experience with natural disasters: an evaluation of cognitive heuristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Greening, L; Dollinger, S J; Pitz, G

1996-02-01

Elevated risk judgments for negative life events have been linked to personal experience with events. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive heuristics are the underlying cognitive mechanism for this relation. The availability (i.e., memory for incidents) and simulation (i.e., imagery) heuristics were evaluated as possible mediators for the relation between personal experience and risk estimates for fatal weather events. Adolescents who had experienced weather disasters estimated their personal risk for weather events. Support was obtained for the simulation heuristic (imagery) as a mediator for the relation. Availability for lightning disaster experience was also found to be a mediator for the relation between personal lightning disaster experience and risk estimate for future events. The implications for risk perception research are discussed.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Susnik, J.

1996-01-01

The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin G Boyles

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

Consumption of medicines in high-risk pregnancy: evaluation of determinants related to the use of prescription drugs and self-medication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle Dayse Araújo

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The use of drugs during pregnancy still represents a challenge for medicine, since the majority of drugs cross the placental barrier with a potential to cause several congenital problems to the fetus, and most of them have not been clinically tested in pregnant patients. At the same time, the medicalization phenomenon, self-medication, and lack of patient information about the misuse of medicines are additional problems. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the pattern of medicine consumption in high-risk pregnancies and the determinants related to this consumption pattern. In order to do so, a cross-sectional descriptive study was performed with puerperal women who had a history of high-risk pregnancy. Statistically significant associations were found between self-medication and fewer prenatal visits, and cigarette use during pregnancy and a higher number of children. According to these data, the vulnerability of this population to the risks of drug use is evident, demonstrating a gap that requires urgent interventions in health-care education.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

1987-01-01

ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

Opinions of Nurses About the Evaluation of Risk of Falling Among Inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Atay, Selma; Vurur, Sevda; Erdugan, Necla

Patient falls and fall-related injuries are an important problem for patients, relatives, caregivers, and the health system at large. This study aims to identify opinions of nurses about the risk of falling among patients staying in hospitals. This study uses a qualitative descriptive design and employs a semistructured interview method to identify the opinions and experiences of nurses about patient falls. This study evaluated the opinions of a total of 12 staff nurses. It was found that nurses consider patients in the postoperative period to be most prone to falls. They think that most falls take place during transfers and that the medical diagnosis of the patient plays a crucial role in fall incidents. The most important problem associated with patient falls was symptoms of traumatic brain injury. According to the participating nurses, the risk of fall for every patient should be evaluated upon admission. Measures that the nurses take against patient falls include raising the bed's side rails and securing the bed brakes. The findings of this research suggest that in-service training programs about the evaluation of the risk of falling should be organized for nurses. Guidelines should be developed for patients with different levels of risk of falling. It is suggested that nurses should be in charge of training patients who are conscious, their relatives, and caregiver personnel. The training of nurses and caregivers helps to prevent the falls of inpatients.

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Trampoline related injuries in children: risk factors and radiographic findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Klimek, Peter Michael; Juen, David; Stranzinger, Enno; Wolf, Rainer; Slongo, Theddy

2013-05-01

Backyard trampolines are immensely popular among children, but are associated with an increase of trampoline-related injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate radiographs of children with trampoline related injuries and to determine the risk factors. Between 2003 and 2009, 286 children under the age of 16 with backyard trampoline injuries were included in the study. The number of injuries increased from 13 patients in 2003 to 86 in 2009. The median age of the 286 patients was 7 years (range: 1-15 years). Totally 140 (49%) patients were males, and 146 (51%) females. Medical records and all available diagnostic imaging were reviewed. A questionnaire was sent to the parents to evaluate the circumstances of each injury, the type of trampoline, the protection equipment and the experience of the children using the trampoline. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the University Hospital of Bern. The questionnaires and radiographs of the 104 patients were available for evaluation. A fracture was sustained in 51 of the 104 patients. More than 75% of all patients sustaining injuries and in 90% of patients with fractures were jumping on the trampoline with other children at the time of the accident. The most common fractures were supracondylar humeral fractures (29%) and forearm fractures (25%). Fractures of the proximal tibia occurred especially in younger children between 2-5 years of age. Children younger than 5 years old are at risk for specific proximal tibia fractures ("Trampoline Fracture"). A child jumping simultaneously with other children has a higher risk of suffering from a fracture.

Transient severe motion artifact related to gadoxetate disodium-enhanced liver MRI. Frequency and risk evaluation at a German institution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Well, Lennart; Rausch, Vanessa Hanna; Adam, Gerhard; Henes, Frank Oliver; Bannas, Peter [Univ. Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany). Dept. for Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology and Nuclear Medicine

2017-07-15

Varying frequencies (5 - 18%) of contrast-related transient severe motion (TSM) imaging artifacts during gadoxetate disodium-enhanced arterial phase liver MRI have been reported. Since previous reports originated from the United States and Japan, we aimed to determine the frequency of TSM at a German institution and to correlate it with potential risk factors and previously published results. Two age- and sex-matched groups were retrospectively selected (gadoxetate disodium n = 89; gadobenate dimeglumine n = 89) from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI examinations in a single center. Respiratory motion-related artifacts in non-enhanced and dynamic phases were assessed independently by two readers blinded to contrast agents on a 4-point scale. Scores of ≥3 were considered as severe motion artifacts. Severe motion artifacts in arterial phases were considered as TSM if scores in all other phases were < 3. Potential risk factors for TSM were evaluated via logistic regression analysis. For gadoxetate disodium, the mean score for respiratory motion artifacts was significantly higher in the arterial phase (2.2 ± 0.9) compared to all other phases (1.6 ± 0.7) (p < 0.05). The frequency of TSM was significantly higher with gadoxetate disodium (n = 19; 21.1 %) than with gadobenate dimeglumine (n = 1; 1.1%) (p < 0.001). The frequency of TSM at our institution is similar to some, but not all previously published findings. Logistic regression analysis did not show any significant correlation between TSM and risk factors (all p>0.05). We revealed a high frequency of TSM after injection of gadoxetate disodium at a German institution, substantiating the importance of a diagnosis-limiting phenomenon that so far has only been reported from the United States and Japan. In accordance with previous studies, we did not identify associated risk factors for TSM.

Employment relations, flexibility and risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Carsten Strøby

Employment relations literature often distinguishes between social democratic/corporatist models of employment relations and liberal models of employment relations as they are seen as opposite or at least different ways of organizing labor markets. They are often characterized as having very...... different risk profiles in terms of relationships between employees, employers, and the state. Low levels of labor market regulation very often characterize the liberal models of employment relations as we know them from, for instance, the USA and the UK. This means that employment conditions are very often...... insecure and that the burden of unemployment risk mostly lies with the employees rather than the employer. Corporatist – or social democratic – employment relations models are, in contrast to the liberal models, often characterized by stricter regulation of the labor market and by high standards...

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

Evaluation of a medication intensity screening tool used in malignant hematology and bone marrow transplant services to identify patients at risk for medication-related problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucena, Mariana; Bondarenka, Carolyn; Luehrs-Hayes, Genevieve; Perez, Andy

2018-06-01

Background In 2014, a screening tool was implemented at Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) Health to identify patients who are at risk for medication-related events. Patients are classified as high-risk if they meet one of the following criteria: receiving anticoagulation therapy, taking more than 10 scheduled medications upon admission, or readmission within the past 30 days. The goal of this study was to determine risk criteria specific to the malignant hematology (MH) and bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients. Methods A retrospective chart review of 114 patients admitted and discharged from the MH/BMT services between 1 September 2015 and 31 October 2015 was performed. A pharmacist-conducted medication history was completed and documented, and all interventions at admission and throughout hospitalization were categorized by severity and by value of service. The primary objective was to evaluate if patients in the MH/BMT services have more medication-related interventions documented upon admission compared with patients who are not screened as high risk. The secondary objectives were to evaluate the different types and severities of interventions made by pharmacists during the entire hospital stay, and to determine if there are certain characteristics that can help identify hematology/oncology high-risk patients. Results More interventions documented upon admission in the high-risk group as a whole when compared with the not high-risk group (73 vs. 31), but when normalized per patients in each group, there was an equal number of interventions (1.0). The most common interventions were to modify regimen (36%) and discontinue therapy (16%). The patient characteristics associated with high-risk included neutropenia, lower average platelet counts on admission, and longer length of stay. Conclusion The screening tool does not further differentiate an already complex MH/BMT patient population. Pharmacists may be more useful at capturing errors or changes during

AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

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Mahin Tafazoli

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming

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Sayed Mohammad Taghavi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. Objective: To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks. Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA. Results: Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4 were associated with the following tasks: (1 manure disposal, (2 filling feed bags, and (3 pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3. The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. Conclusion: The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Risk Factors for Developing Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders during Dairy Farming.

Science.gov (United States)

Taghavi, Sayed Mohammad; Mokarami, Hamidreza; Ahmadi, Omran; Stallones, Lorann; Abbaspour, Asghar; Marioryad, Hossein

2017-01-01

Dairy farming work involves frequent use of poor postures. These postures may increase the risk of developing musculoskeletal disorders among dairy workers. To assess postural load during performance of various tasks related to dairy farming. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a dairy farm in Iran. In order to assess postural load, tasks related to dairy farming were divided into 3 categories: feeding, milking, and manure disposal. Each task was then divided into its constituent work subdivisions (tasks). Finally, the working posture for each work subdivision was evaluated using Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Based on the results from the REBA score, the poorest risk scores (risk level 4) were associated with the following tasks: (1) manure disposal, (2) filling feed bags, and (3) pouring milk into a bucket. Other tasks such as filling corn containers, pouring corn into the milling machine, preparing the feed, pouring food into mangers, attaching the milking machine, and pouring milk from a bucket into a tank imposed high risk (risk level 3). The risk for the tasks of washing and disinfecting the udders were assessed as medium risks. The risk levels associated with most of the tasks on the studied farm were unacceptably high. Therefore, it is essential to implement ergonomic interventions to reduce risk levels of the tasks.

Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelton, Martin L

2017-07-30

The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia-Zhong Zheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

What are the main risk factors for running-related injuries?

Science.gov (United States)

Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Rainbow, Michael J; Davis, Irene S; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

2014-08-01

Despite several studies that have been conducted on running injuries, the risk factors for running-related injuries are still not clear in the literature. The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective cohort studies that investigated the risk factors for running injuries in general. We conducted electronic searches without restriction of language on EMBASE (1980 to Dec 2012), PUBMED (1946 to Dec 2012), CINAHL (1988 to Dec 2012) SPORTDiscus (1977 to Dec 2012), Latin American and Caribbean Centre on Health Sciences Information (1985 to Dec 2012) and Scientific Electronic Library Online (1998 to Dec 2012) databases, using subject headings, synonyms, relevant terms and variant spellings for each database. Only prospective cohort studies investigating the risk factors for running-related musculoskeletal injuries were included in this review. Two independent reviewers screened each article and, if they did not reach a consensus, a third reviewer decided whether or not the article should be included. Year of publication, type of runners, sample size, definition of running-related musculoskeletal injury, baseline characteristics, reported risk factors and the statistical measurement of risk or protection association were extracted from the articles. A scale adapted by the authors evaluated the risk of bias of the articles. A total of 11 articles were considered eligible in this systematic review. A total of 4,671 pooled participants were analysed and 60 different predictive factors were investigated. The main risk factor reported was previous injury (last 12 months), reported in 5 of the 8 studies that investigated previous injuries as a risk factor. Only one article met the criteria for random selection of the sample and only six articles included a follow-up of 6 months or more. There was no association between gender and running injuries in most of the studies. It is possible that eligible articles for this review were published in journals that were

Contributing risk factors for orthopedic device related infections in sina hospital, tehran, iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadadi, A; Zehtab, M J; Babagolzadeh, H; Ashraf, H

2011-02-01

In spite of decreasing incidence of orthopedic device-related infections to 1%, nowadays, device-related infection still remains a diagnostic, therapeutic and cost-related problem. The objective of this study is to evaluate the contributing risk factors for orthopedic device-related infections in Sina Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Three hundred and thirty patients who underwent orthopedic device implantation from 2002-2006 were enrolled; among them, 110 patients were complicated with infection. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for device related infections. Patients with infection were older compared to those without infection. The Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest organism. A correlation was observed between wound infection and external fixation, an underlying health condition, and addiction which were independent risk factors for a device related infection. Orthopedic device-related infection puts a great financial burden on patients and hospital resources and could lead to morbidity and mortality in patients. So, appropriate pre and postoperative wound care for dirty wounds, especially when external fixators are used, and in patients with poor conditions or addiction should be done with more caution.

Assaying the effect of levodopa on the evaluation of risk in healthy humans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mkael Symmonds

Full Text Available In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20 employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes--skewness, dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.

A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

Risk evaluation of cosmic-ray exposure in long-term manned space mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujitaka, Kazunobu; Majima, Hideyuki; Ando, Koichi; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Masao

1999-03-01

Long-term manned space missions are planned to be implemented within the first two decades of the 21st century. The International Space Station (ISS) will be ready to run, and a plan to visit Mars is also under way. Humans will live in space for long periods of time and we are planning to do experiments in space to examine various aspects of space science. The main risk in long-term manned space missions is large exposure to space radiation. Human safety must be ensured in space where exposure to cosmic rays is almost 1 mSv a day. As such missions will inevitably result in significant exposure for astronauts, there is increasing need to protect them adequately based on both physical and biological knowledge. A good method to evaluate realistic risk associated with space missions will be in urgent demand. At the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS), Chiba, Japan, a research institutes of the Science Technology Agency of Japan, high energy cosmic radiation can be simulated only with heavy ion irradiation accelerated by the particle accelerator, Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator (HIMAC). Research to evaluate risk of space radiation, including physical measurement techniques, protective effects, biological effects and risk adjustment, aging, neuronal cell damage and cancer risk are undergoing. We organized a workshop of the latest topics and experimental results of physics and biology related to space radiation supported by Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST). This workshop was held as a satellite meeting associated with the 32nd Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Scientific Assembly (Nagoya, July 12-19th, 1998). This volume is an extended proceedings of the workshop. The proceedings contain six main subjects covering the latest information on Risk Evaluation of Cosmic-Ray Exposure in Long-Term Manned Space Mission'. 1. Risk Estimation of Heavy Ion Exposure in Space. 2. Low Dose-Rate Effects and Microbeam-Related Heavy Ions. 3. Chromosome and

Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk" | Durrheim | South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Family Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 45, No 8 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Managing risk in statistics - "Relative risk". DN Durrheim ...

A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

Relative Risk Appraisal, the September 11 Attacks, and Terrorism-Related Fears

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Randall D.; Bryant, Richard A.; Amsel, Lawrence; Suh, Eun Jung; Cook, Joan M.; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic “bull’s eye” disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11– or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology. PMID:17516775

Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, K.M.

1994-01-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

The care of Filipino juvenile offenders in residential facilities evaluated using the risk-need-responsivity model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spruit, A.; Wissink, I.B.; Stams, G.J.J.M.

According to the risk-need-responsivity model of offender, assessment and rehabilitation treatment should target specific factors that are related to re-offending. This study evaluates the residential care of Filipino juvenile offenders using the risk-need-responsivity model. Risk analyses and

Public relations in risk communication: risk pr. The importance of public relations for risk communication; Public Relations in der Risikokommunikation: Risiko-PR. Die Bedeutung von Public Relations fuer die Risikokommunikation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehmann, K.

2001-07-01

Risks have become a central problem of our time, as is reflected in concepts like 'society at risk' and 'anti-technological attitude', in group protest against risks and against those who cause them, and last but not least in the critical attitude of the media. Against this background, organisations must needs enter the public discussion and be able to communicate professionally and convincingly in order to ensure their own success and further existence. The book describes the basic problems of risk research and risk communications and discusses inhowfar, and how, public relations strategies and instruments can help here. [German] Risiken werden verstaerkt zum Problem unserer Zeit. Das belegen nicht nur Begriffe wie 'Risikogesellschaft' und 'Technikfeindlichkeit', die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sondern auch und vor allem nachhaltige Proteste von engagierten Gruppierungen gegen Risiken und deren Verursacher oder auch die kritische Berichterstattung der Medien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es fuer Organisationen erforderlich, in die oeffentliche Auseinandersetzung um Risiken einzusteigen und hier professionell und ueberzeugend zu kommunizieren, um den Organisationserfolg und Organisationsbestand zu sichern. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt die Grundprobleme der Risikoforschung und Risikokommunikation und diskutiert, ob und inwieweit Public Relations bei der Loesung dieser Probleme helfen koennen, da insbesondere Public Relations gezielt Strategien und Instrumente nutzen, um beispielsweise den Wissensstand der Oeffentlichkeit zu verbessern und den Dialog mit relevanten Teiloeffentlichkeiten zu foerdern. (orig.)

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

2008-01-01

Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se

At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

2008-01-01

The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

Do Italian Companies Manage Work-Related Stress Effectively? A Process Evaluation in Implementing the INAIL Methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Tecco, Cristina; Ronchetti, Matteo; Ghelli, Monica; Russo, Simone; Persechino, Benedetta; Iavicoli, Sergio

2015-01-01

Studies on Intervention Process Evaluation are attracting growing attention in the literature on interventions linked to stress and the wellbeing of workers. There is evidence that some elements relating to the process and content of an intervention may have a decisive role in implementing it by facilitating or hindering the effectiveness of the results. This study aimed to provide a process evaluation on interventions to assess and manage risks related to work-related stress using a methodological path offered by INAIL. The final sample is composed of 124 companies participating to an interview on aspects relating to each phase of the INAIL methodological path put in place to implement the intervention. INAIL methodology has been defined as useful in the process of assessing and managing the risks related to work-related stress. Some factors related to the process (e.g., implementation of a preliminary phase, workers' involvement, and use of external consultants) showed a role in significant differences that emerged in the levels of risk, particularly in relation to findings from the preliminary assessment. Main findings provide information on the key aspects of process and content that are useful in implementing an intervention for assessing and managing risks related to work-related stress.

Do Italian Companies Manage Work-Related Stress Effectively? A Process Evaluation in Implementing the INAIL Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Di Tecco, Cristina; Ronchetti, Matteo; Ghelli, Monica; Russo, Simone; Persechino, Benedetta

2015-01-01

Studies on Intervention Process Evaluation are attracting growing attention in the literature on interventions linked to stress and the wellbeing of workers. There is evidence that some elements relating to the process and content of an intervention may have a decisive role in implementing it by facilitating or hindering the effectiveness of the results. This study aimed to provide a process evaluation on interventions to assess and manage risks related to work-related stress using a methodological path offered by INAIL. The final sample is composed of 124 companies participating to an interview on aspects relating to each phase of the INAIL methodological path put in place to implement the intervention. INAIL methodology has been defined as useful in the process of assessing and managing the risks related to work-related stress. Some factors related to the process (e.g., implementation of a preliminary phase, workers' involvement, and use of external consultants) showed a role in significant differences that emerged in the levels of risk, particularly in relation to findings from the preliminary assessment. Main findings provide information on the key aspects of process and content that are useful in implementing an intervention for assessing and managing risks related to work-related stress. PMID:26504788

Identification of road user related risk factors, Deliverable 5.1 of the H2020 project SafetyCube (Safety CaUsation, Benefits and Efficiency).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Filtness, A. & Papadimitriou, E. (Eds.) Leskovšek, B. Focant, N. Martensen, H. Sgarra, V. Usami, D.S. Soteropoulos, A. Stadlbauer, S. Theofilatos, A. Yannis, G. Ziakopoulos, A. Diamandouros, K. Durso, C. Goldenbeld, C. Loenis, B. Schermers, G. Petegem, J.-H. van Elvik, R. Hesjevoll, I.S. Quigley, C. & Papazikou, E.

2017-01-01

The present Deliverable (D5.1) describes the identification and evaluation of infrastructure related risk factors. It outlines the results of Task 5.1 of WP5 of SafetyCube, which aimed to identify and evaluate infrastructure related risk factors and related road safety problems by (i) presenting a

Anxious and depressive symptoms in the French Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort: risk factors and self-perception of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Mounchetrou Njoya, Ibrahim; Paris, Christophe; Dinet, Jerome; Luc, Amandine; Lighezzolo-Alnot, Joelle; Pairon, Jean-Claude; Thaon, Isabelle

2017-04-01

Asbestos is known to be an independent risk factor for lung and pleural cancers. However, to date, little attention has been paid to the psychological effects of asbestos exposure among exposed subjects. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of anxious and depressive symptoms among >2000 French participants of the Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort (ARDCO), 6 years after their inclusion, to identify the risk factors associated with those anxious and depressive symptoms and to evaluate the impact of the asbestos-risk perception. The ARDCO was constituted in four regions of France between October 2003 and December 2005, by including former asbestos workers. Between 2011 and 2012, participants of the ARDCO program were invited to undergo another chest CT scan 6 years after the previous scan. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires including asbestos exposure assessment, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. Among the 2225 participants, 2210 fully completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The prevalence of symptoms of probable anxiety and probable depression was 19.7% and 9.9%, respectively. The risk of anxious and depressive symptoms was independently associated with self-perception of the intensity of asbestos exposure, asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. The results obtained in this large study confirm that previously asbestos-exposed subjects are likely to develop anxious and depressive symptoms. Finally, implications related to the prevention of anxiety and depression among asbestos-exposed workers is discussed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the risks linked with natural refrigerating fluids; Evaluation des risques lies aux fluides frigorigenes naturels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guilpart, J. [Centre National Machiniste Agricole du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, (Cemagref), 35 - Rennes (France). Div. Genie des Procedes Frigorifiques

1999-07-01

Because of their environmental impact, halogenated refrigerants are more and more replaced by `natural` refrigerants in vapor compression cycle refrigerating machineries. However, technological risks exist with these substitution fluids due to their flammability, explosibility or toxicity. Major risks can be encountered at the industrial scale and thanks to experience feedback and to several studies, a rigorous approach was settled and included in the legislative texts relative to classified installations and environment protection. Risks also exist at the scale of refrigerating installations with the use of hydrocarbon and ammonia refrigerants. This paper presents an evaluation of risks both at the industrial and at the installation scale: 1 - definition and approach of industrial risks: scenarios of major industrial accidents (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), toxic gases emission); evaluation of accident effects (thermal, mechanical, noxious); 2 - calculation methods applicable to industrial installations: thermal effects (radiation intensity, exposure duration, mass of flammable product involved in the phenomenon), mechanical effects (TNT equivalent method, rupture of pressurized reservoirs), noxious effects (leaks, atmospheric dispersion); 3 - application to refrigerating installations: case of hydrocarbons (dimensioning scenarios and simplified formulae, admissible scenarios), case of ammonia. (J.S.) 20 refs.

Explanatory risk factors in the relations between schizotypy and indicators of suicide risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahn, Danielle R; DeVylder, Jordan E; Hilimire, Matthew R

2016-04-30

Schizotypy has been linked to suicide risk, but it is not known whether established suicide-related risk factors mediate this relation. The aim of this study was to assess the mediating effects of depressive symptoms, social anxiety, self-esteem, and intimate disclosure in peer relationships in the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. This aim was tested in 590 young adults using a nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. After inclusion of the mediators, interpersonal schizotypy was no longer directly associated with either suicide ideation or lifetime suicide attempts. Depression and self-esteem mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and suicide ideation. No variables mediated the relation between interpersonal schizotypy and lifetime suicide attempts, and there were no significant direct relations when mediators were included. Schizotypy appears to be a distal risk factor for suicidal behavior; assessing depressive symptoms and self-esteem may provide more proximal information about suicide risk, and may be targets for mitigating suicide risk in individuals with schizotypy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Gagarina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent condition

Patient clusters in acute, work-related back pain based on patterns of disability risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, William S; Pransky, Glenn; Patterson, William; Linton, Steven J; Winters, Thomas

2007-02-01

To identify subgroups of patients with work-related back pain based on disability risk factors. Patients with work-related back pain (N = 528) completed a 16-item questionnaire of potential disability risk factors before their initial medical evaluation. Outcomes of pain, functional limitation, and work disability were assessed 1 and 3 months later. A K-Means cluster analysis of 5 disability risk factors (pain, depressed mood, fear avoidant beliefs, work inflexibility, and poor expectations for recovery) resulted in 4 sub-groups: low risk (n = 182); emotional distress (n = 103); severe pain/fear avoidant (n = 102); and concerns about job accommodation (n = 141). Pain and disability outcomes at follow-up were superior in the low-risk group and poorest in the severe pain/fear avoidant group. Patients with acute back pain can be discriminated into subgroups depending on whether disability is related to pain beliefs, emotional distress, or workplace concerns.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

1985-11-01

The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa

2017-01-01

and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...... Voltage Rise (IVR), Risky Voltage Rise (RVR), Risky Voltage Down (RVD), Line Loss Reduction (LLR), Line Loss Increment (LLI) and Line overload flow (LOF) are introduced using probability and expected values of their occurrence. Also, to measure the overall interests and risks of installing DG, composite...

Modified risk evaluation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

Work-related psychosocial stress and risk of preterm, low birthweight delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Homer, C J; James, S A; Siegel, E

1990-02-01

We investigated whether work-related psychologic stress--defined as work characterized by both high psychologic demands and limited control over the response to these demands--increases a woman's risk of delivering a preterm, low birthweight infant. We studied 786 employed pregnant women included in the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience, Youth Cohort (NLSY), a nationally representative sample of 12,686 young adults. Data concerning work status, job title, and other factors affecting pregnancy outcome were obtained from the NLSY. Assessment of job experience was based on job title, using an established catalogue of occupation characteristics. After accounting for the physical exertion entailed in a job, occupational psychologic stress as measured by job title was not associated with preterm, low birthweight delivery for the sample as a whole (Relative risk = 1.16, 95% confidence interval .45, 2.95). For those women who did not want to remain in the work force, work-related stress increased their risk of experiencing this outcome (RR = 8.1, 95% CI 1.5, 50.2). Personal motivation toward work, as well as the physical effort of work, should be considered in evaluating the impact of a job's psychologic characteristics on pregnancy outcome.

A new perspective on Renn and Klinke's approach to risk evaluation and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristensen, V.; Aven, T.; Ford, D.

2006-01-01

In this paper we discuss Renn and Klinke's approach for risk evaluation and selection of risk management strategies. The main focus in the discussion is the foundational basis and the understanding of what risk is, and how a different foundational basis may simplify and improve the characterization of risk. We will present and discuss an alternative set of characteristics, and give some recommendations with respect to selection of risk management strategies based on different values or magnitudes of these characteristics. We believe that the main focus when describing and managing risk should be the potential consequences, represented by observable quantities, and the uncertainty related to their future values

Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

2007-01-01

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

1983-01-01

The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

Cardiovascular risk in lupus nephritis: Do renal disease-related and other traditional risk factors play a role?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inoshi Atukorala

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study was performed to evaluate the prevalence of thickened carotid intima media thickness (CIMT in a Sri Lankan cohort of lupus nephritis (LN patients and to identify associations between traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD and LN-related risk factors with increased CIMT. Consecutive patients with biopsy-proven LN were evaluated for conventional CVD risk factors, renal parameters and extent of organ involvement in this cross-sectional study. Current disease activity and damage were assessed by the British Isles Lupus Activity Group (BILAG score and the Systemic Lupus International Collaborative Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR damage index, respectively. CIMT was assessed by B Mode grey scale ultrasonography. Increased CIMT was defined as CIMT more than the 75th percentile based on cutoffs from the "Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study." Forty patients (98% female, with a mean age of 38 years (age range of 20-50 and of South Asian descent, were evaluated. The mean duration of disease of 6.15 years (SD = 4.66. The overall prevalence of cardiovascular events was low and included previous acute coronary syndromes in 7.5%, stable angina in 5%, cerebrovascular accidents in 7.5% and transient ischemic attacks in 2.5% of the patients; 72.5% had hypertension (HTN [mean blood pressure (BP 140/80 mm Hg]; 32.5% had dyslipidemias (mean serum cholesterol 5.9; SD = 5.6 and 25% had diabetes (mean blood sugar 103.7; SD = 15.6. Forty percent were obese and 20% were overweight (Asian cutoffs. Increased CIMT (57.5% and atherosclerotic plaques (15.36% indicated a high CVD risk in this cohort. Diabetes (P = 0.016, HTN (P = 0.002, dyslipidemia (P = 0.002 and obesity (P = 0.048 were associated with thickened CIMT. The only LN-related risk factor associated with thickened CIMT (P <0.05 was the SLICC/ACR damage index. The independent predictors of thickened CIMT determined by logistic regression analysis were HTN and dyslipidemia.

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

Science.gov (United States)

Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

2017-09-01

To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

Promoting physical activity and health literacy: study protocol for a longitudinal, mixed methods evaluation of a cross-provider workplace-related intervention in Germany (The AtRisk study).

Science.gov (United States)

Schaller, Andrea; Dejonghe, Lea; Alayli-Goebbels, Adrienne; Biallas, Bianca; Froboese, Ingo

2016-07-22

Physical activity and health literacy are topics of utmost importance in the prevention of chronic diseases. The present article describes the study protocol for evaluating a cross-provider workplace-related intervention promoting physical activity and health literacy. The RE-AIM Framework will be the conceptual framework of the AtRisk study. A controlled natural experiment and a qualitative study will be conducted. The cross-provider intervention is based on the cooperation of the German Pension Fund Rhineland and cooperating German Statutory Health Insurances. It combines two components: a behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention and the assignment of a health coach. The single-provider intervention only includes the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention. The quantitative study (natural experiment) encompasses three measuring points (T0 = start of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (baseline); T1 = end of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (16 weeks); T2 = 6 month follow-up) and will compare the effectiveness of the cross-provider workplace-related intervention compared with the single provider intervention. Participants are employees with health related risk factors. ANCOVA will be used to evaluate the effect of the intervention on the outcome variables leisure time physical (primary outcome) activity and health literacy (secondary outcome). The qualitative study comprises semi-structured interviews, systematic field notes of stakeholder meetings and document analyses. The AtRisk study will contribute towards the claim for cross-provider interventions and workplace-related approaches described in the new Preventive Health Care Act. The results of this study will inform providers, payers and policy makers about the effectiveness of a cross-provider workplace-related lifestyle intervention compared to a single-provider intervention. Beyond, the study will identify challenges for implementing cross-provider preventive

Promoting physical activity and health literacy: study protocol for a longitudinal, mixed methods evaluation of a cross-provider workplace-related intervention in Germany (The AtRisk study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Schaller

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity and health literacy are topics of utmost importance in the prevention of chronic diseases. The present article describes the study protocol for evaluating a cross-provider workplace-related intervention promoting physical activity and health literacy. Methods The RE-AIM Framework will be the conceptual framework of the AtRisk study. A controlled natural experiment and a qualitative study will be conducted. The cross-provider intervention is based on the cooperation of the German Pension Fund Rhineland and cooperating German Statutory Health Insurances. It combines two components: a behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention and the assignment of a health coach. The single-provider intervention only includes the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention. The quantitative study (natural experiment encompasses three measuring points (T0 = start of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (baseline; T1 = end of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (16 weeks; T2 = 6 month follow-up and will compare the effectiveness of the cross-provider workplace-related intervention compared with the single provider intervention. Participants are employees with health related risk factors. ANCOVA will be used to evaluate the effect of the intervention on the outcome variables leisure time physical (primary outcome activity and health literacy (secondary outcome. The qualitative study comprises semi-structured interviews, systematic field notes of stakeholder meetings and document analyses. Discussion The AtRisk study will contribute towards the claim for cross-provider interventions and workplace-related approaches described in the new Preventive Health Care Act. The results of this study will inform providers, payers and policy makers about the effectiveness of a cross-provider workplace-related lifestyle intervention compared to a single-provider intervention. Beyond, the study will identify challenges

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Are we overestimating the stroke risk related to contraceptive pills?

Science.gov (United States)

Gompel, Anne; Plu-Bureau, Genevieve

2014-02-01

Hormonal contraceptives are used by million of women worldwide. Ischemic stroke is one of the major harmful effects of hormonal contraceptives, but remains a very uncommon disease before menopause. The increased risk of stroke under third and fourth-generation contraceptive pills and nonoral contraceptives has been recently highlighted. Given the benefits associated with combined hormonal contraceptives (COCs), it is important to properly evaluate their risks in order to provide a better benefit/risk balance to young women. Scarce studies addressing the rates of stroke in young women suggest that the fraction attributable to the contraceptive pill remains low. In contrast, there is abundant literature on the relative risks of stroke under COCs. The risk of arterial disease seems to be similar among users of second and third-generation pills, drospirenone-containing pills and nonoral hormonal contraceptives. Progestin-only contraceptives do not appear to be associated with an increased risk of stroke. New formulations of hormonal contraceptives are not safer than second-generation COCs. Even if the absolute numbers of strokes attributable to hormonal contraceptives is very low, stringent selection of patients should help to reduce the events still more, and progestin-only contraceptives/nonhormonal methods should be preferred in cases of associated risk factors.

A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

2017-08-01

Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leetaru, Hannes

2014-01-31

.e., persistently porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO{sub 2} plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO{sub 2}-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.

Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

2016-04-01

The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Marzo

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

Evaluating Personalized Feedback Intervention Framing with a Randomized Controlled Trial to Reduce Young Adult Alcohol-Related Sexual Risk Taking.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Melissa A; Rhew, Isaac C; Fairlie, Anne M; Swanson, Alex; Anderson, Judyth; Kaysen, Debra

2018-03-06

The purpose of this study was to evaluate personalized feedback intervention (PFI) framing with two web-delivered PFIs aimed to reduce young adult alcohol-related risky sexual behavior (RSB). Combined PFIs typically use an additive approach whereby independent components on drinking and components on RSB are presented without the discussion of the influence of alcohol on RSB. In contrast, an integrated PFI highlights the RSB-alcohol connection by presenting integrated alcohol and RSB components that focus on the role of intoxication as a barrier to risk reduction in sexual situations. In a randomized controlled trial, 402 (53.98% female) sexually active young adults aged 18-25 were randomly assigned to a combined PFI, an integrated PFI, or attention control. All assessment and intervention procedures were web-based. At the 1-month follow-up, those randomly assigned to the integrated condition had a lower likelihood of having any casual sex partners compared to those in the control group. At the 6-month follow-up, the combined condition had a lower likelihood of having any casual sex partners compared to those in the control group. When examining alcohol-related RSB, at the 1-month follow-up, both interventions showed a lower likelihood of any drinking prior to sex compared to the control group. When examining alcohol-related sexual consequences, results showed a reduction in the non-zero count of consequences in the integrated condition compared to the control at the 1-month follow-up. For typical drinks per week, those in the combined condition showed a greater reduction in the non-zero count of drinks than those in the control condition at the 1-month follow-up. While there were no significant differences between the two interventions, the current findings highlight the utility of two efficacious web-based alcohol and RSB interventions among a national sample of at-risk young adults.

Public Perception of Extreme Cold Weather-Related Health Risk in a Cold Area of Northeast China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ban, Jie; Lan, Li; Yang, Chao; Wang, Jian; Chen, Chen; Huang, Ganlin; Li, Tiantian

2017-08-01

A need exists for public health strategies regarding extreme weather disasters, which in recent years have become more frequent. This study aimed to understand the public's perception of extreme cold and its related health risks, which may provide detailed information for public health preparedness during an extreme cold weather event. To evaluate public perceptions of cold-related health risk and to identify vulnerable groups, we collected responses from 891 participants in a face-to-face survey in Harbin, China. Public perception was measured by calculating the score for each perception question. Locals perceived that extreme cold weather and related health risks were serious, but thought they could not avoid these risks. The significant difference in perceived acceptance level between age groups suggested that the elderly are a "high health risk, low risk perception" group, meaning that they are relatively more vulnerable owing to their high susceptibility and low awareness of the health risks associated with extreme cold weather. The elderly should be a priority in risk communication and health protective interventions. This study demonstrated that introducing risk perception into the public health field can identify vulnerable groups with greater needs, which may improve the decision-making of public health intervention strategies. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:417-421).

Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

2010-10-01

The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

[An experimental model for assessing the risk factors for work-related stress in four Italian universities].

Science.gov (United States)

Miscetti, G; Barberini, L; Chiocchini, D; Cirimbilli, A; Pippi, R; Pampanella, L; Caserta, G; Gargarella, L

2011-01-01

This study, a collaborative effort among the Local Health Authority 2 of Perugia, Italy, the National Coordination of Worker's Safety Representatives for University and Research Institutions and the National Coordination for Protection and Prevention Services for Universities and Research Institutions, describes the results of a method used to evaluate work-related stress. Personnel from four Italian universities, which we call University I, II, III and IV geographically distributed in nord (1), center (2) and south (1) of Italy, responded to a questionnaire regarding risk evaluation of work-related stress in response to the Italian Law 81/2008. The methodology includes a preliminary analysis of the physical/technological and organizational/relational aspects of the company in order to determine a risk factor of work-related stress. This is followed by an evaluation by agencies competent in the areas of prevention and protection, (Administrative personnel of the company, Medical support persons, heads of the Prevention and Protection Service, employee representatives, and others) that apply a specific algorithm and by the employees through the completion of a questionnaire. The employees, mostly men, of the various universities, completed 510 questionnaires. Based on the results of the questionnaires and on a comparison between the expectations of the administration and the employees, the preventative measures that need to be adopted were identified. The results of this study show that there is not complete agreement between the administration and the employees regarding the work-related expectations. This difference in viewpoints could be a source of work-related stress. Some aspects of the study were shown to be of common concern in the various universities, while for other aspects, there were significantly different perceptions between male and female employees. An immediate response is needed with respect to some aspects in the work context and to plan further

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Farm Work-Related Injuries and Risk Factors in South Korean Agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyocher; Räsänen, Kimmo; Chae, Hyeseon; Kim, Kyungsu; Kim, Kyungran; Lee, Kyungsuk

2016-01-01

Agriculture is known to be a risk-filled industry in South Korea, as it is worldwide. The aims of this study were to identify the magnitude of farm work-related injuries and evaluate the association between injury and possible risk factors. Farmers, including farm members (N = 16,160), were surveyed. After excluding 7 subjects with missing data in questions about injury, 16,153 farmer responses were used for the analysis. Of the 16,153 farmers, 3.6% answered having at least one farm work-related injury requiring outpatient treatment or hospitalization during 2012. The proportion of injured men (4.3%) was 1.5 times higher than women (2.9%). From an age perspective, the proportion was 1.3% of those aged 49 or below, 2.7% of those aged 50-59, 4.2% of those aged 60-69, 4.2% of those aged 70-79, and 3.1% of those aged 80 or above. We used a multivariate logistic regression analysis with a stepwise model (forward) for risk factors (gender, age, farm ownership, farm type, work years in agriculture, work months during 2012, night work experience, and work experience under the influence of alcohol). The increased risk of farm work-related injuries significantly remained associated with age, farm ownership, and experience of night work. Further studies should be conducted to consistently identify injury characteristics, especially for old farmers, considering the crop cultivation in Asian countries.

Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia

2015-11-01

To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

Science.gov (United States)

Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

2014-11-01

To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

Slip and fall risk on ice and snow:identification, evaluation and prevention

OpenAIRE

Gao, Chuansi

2004-01-01

Slip and fall accidents and associated injuries on ice and snow are prevalent among outdoor workers and the general public in winter in many regions of the world. To understand and tackle this multi-factorial problem, a multidisciplinary approach was used to identify and evaluate slip and fall risks, and to propose recommendations for prevention of slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. Objectives were to present a systems perspective of slip and fall accidents and related risk factors; t...

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

1998-01-01

This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an

An Evaluation of Army Wellness Center Clients' Health-Related Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, L Omar; Ford, Jessica Danielle; Hartzell, Meredith Marie; Hoover, Todd Allan

2018-01-01

To examine whether Army community members participating in a best-practice based workplace health promotion program (WHPP) experience goal-moderated improvements in health-related outcomes. Pretest/posttest outcome evaluation examining an autonomously participating client cohort over 1 year. Army Wellness Center facilities on 19 Army installations. Army community members sample (N = 5703), mostly Active Duty Soldiers (64%). Assessment of health risks with feedback, health assessments, health education classes, and health coaching sessions conducted by health educators at a recommended frequency of once a month for 3 to 12 months. Initial and follow-up outcome assessments of body mass index (BMI), body fat, cardiorespiratory fitness, blood pressure, and perceived stress. Mixed model linear regression testing for goal-moderated improvements in outcomes. Clients experienced significant improvements in body fat (-2% change), perceived stress (-6% to -12% change), cardiorespiratory fitness (+6% change), and blood pressure (-1% change) regardless of health-related goal. Only clients with a weight loss goal experienced BMI improvement (-1% change). Follow-up outcome assessment rates ranged from 44% (N = 2509) for BMI to 6% (N = 342) for perceived stress. Army Wellness Center clients with at least 1 follow-up outcome assessment experienced improvements in military readiness correlates and chronic disease risk factors. Evaluation design and follow-up-related limitations notwithstanding results suggest that best practices in WHPPs can effectively serve a globally distributed military force.

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

1980-01-01

All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

Qualification program of the ASTRID SFR project: definition, methodology and associated risk evaluation and management - 15093

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, G.; Dirat, J.F.; Traina, A.; Christofari, M.

2015-01-01

The Preconceptual Design phase of the ASTRID French Sodium Fast Reactor project had the objective to integrate innovative options to meet the requirements of the 4. generation reactors and to comply with the related specifications. It was followed by the conceptual phase studies (AVP2 phase 2013-2015) where some technical options are left opened with an advanced option and a backup alternative. In the same time of the AVP2 phase studies, the qualification program related to ASTRID project was initiated. It consists in collecting the exhaustive list of research/development (R/D) needs and technological demonstration tests to be fulfilled on representative mockup prior to component implementation in the prototype. The ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) objectives are to collect needs expressed by all engineering companies involved in ASTRID, and then to organize the answer to this expression of needs. This significant work of needs compilation has been divided in several tasks, according to the ASTRID project decomposition in the Product Breakdown Structure (PBS). Compilation of needs was jointly performed by engineering company, R/D responsible and coordinated by the ASTRID Qualification project responsible. It was associated with an evaluation of the maturity level of the technical options thanks to a Technological Readiness Level grid (TRL ranking table), an identification of major risks, and an evaluation of the R/D potentiality and associated facility platform. The methodology applied for the ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) is presented. It is explained what methodology was used associated to the TRL process, and how is managed the associated risk analysis evaluation: evaluation of major risks, definition of a risk portfolio and a corresponding Action Plan for risk reduction (synthesized under the REM acronym: Risk Evaluation and Management). This methodology is a mean used to facilitate ASTRID risk-informed decision making, technology qualification and

Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Zhang

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

Evaluating nonindigenous species management in a Bayesian networks derived relative risk framework for Padilla Bay, WA, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Herring, Carlie E; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2015-10-01

Many coastal regions are encountering issues with the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS). In this study, we conducted a regional risk assessment using a Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to analyze multiple vectors of NIS introductions to Padilla Bay, Washington, a National Estuarine Research Reserve. We had 3 objectives in this study. The 1st objective was to determine whether the BN-RRM could be used to calculate risk from NIS introductions for Padilla Bay. Our 2nd objective was to determine which regions and endpoints were at greatest risk from NIS introductions. Our 3rd objective was to incorporate a management option into the model and predict endpoint risk if it were to be implemented. Eradication can occur at different stages of NIS invasions, such as the elimination of these species before being introduced to the habitat or removal of the species after settlement. We incorporated the ballast water treatment management scenario into the model, observed the risk to the endpoints, and compared this risk with the initial risk estimates. The model results indicated that the southern portion of the bay was at greatest risk because of NIS. Changes in community composition, Dungeness crab, and eelgrass were the endpoints most at risk from NIS introductions. The currents node, which controls the exposure of NIS to the bay from the surrounding marine environment, was the parameter that had the greatest influence on risk. The ballast water management scenario displayed an approximate 1% reduction in risk in this Padilla Bay case study. The models we developed provide an adaptable template for decision makers interested in managing NIS in other coastal regions and large bodies of water. © 2015 SETAC.

Family risk and related education and counseling needs: perceptions of adults with bipolar disorder and siblings of adults with bipolar disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Peay, H L; Hooker, G W; Kassem, L; Biesecker, B B

2009-03-01

Genetics and mental health professionals increasingly provide education and counseling related to risk for psychiatric illness, but there is insufficient evidence about patient perceptions and needs to guide such interventions. Affected individuals and relatives may perceive increased family risk and have interest in genetic education and counseling. Our objectives were to explore perceptions of family vulnerability, perceived control, and coping strategies related to familial risk and needs from genetic counseling. Our methods included conducting semi-structured interviews (n = 48) with individuals with bipolar disorder (BPD) and unaffected siblings. Content analysis generated descriptive data that provide guidance for clinical interventions and themes to evaluate in future studies. The results showed that participants perceived increased personal and family risk, attributing BPD to genes and family environment. Causal attributions were often uncertain and at times inconsistent. Participants wished to modify psychiatric risk to relatives, but were uncertain how to do so; despite the uncertainty, most parents reported risk-modification efforts. Efforts to cope with family vulnerability included monitoring and cognitive distancing. Participants endorsed the usefulness of education and psychological support, but described more ambivalence about receiving risk assessment. Educational and supportive interventions around family risk for BPD should focus on perceptions of cause and vulnerability, reproductive decision-making, and early intervention and risk modification in young relatives. Psychological support is an important component. Providers should evaluate patient coping strategies, which could facilitate or hinder genetic counseling interventions, and should not assume interest in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Southey, Melissa C; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A; van der Luijt, Rob B; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J; Hunter, David J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Van't Veer, Laura J; Hogervorst, Frans B; Fasching, Peter A; Schrauder, Michael G; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M; Perez, Jose I A; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Kristensen, Vessela N; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Ambrosone, Christine B; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J; Martens, John W M; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

2014-01-01

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05) located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

Proposed risk evaluation guidelines for use by the DOE-AL Nuclear Explosive Safety Division in evaluating proposed shipments of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Just, R.A.; Love, A.F.

1997-10-01

The licensing requirements of 10 CFR 71 (US Code of Federal Regulations) are the primary criteria used to license proposed US Department of Energy (DOE) shipments of nuclear components. However, if a shipment cannot meet 10 CFR 71 requirements, a Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) is prepared to document: (1) the degree of compliance of proposed DOE shipments of nuclear components with applicable federal regulations, and (2) the risk associated with the proposed shipments. The Nuclear Explosive Safety Division (NESD) of the Department of Energy, Albuquerque Area Office (DOE-AL) is responsible for evaluating TSRAs and for preparing Safety Evaluation Reports (SERs) to authorize the off-site transport. Hazards associated with the transport may include the presence of fissile material, chemically and radiologically toxic uranium, and ionizing radiation. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has historically considered only radiological hazards in licensing the transport of radiological material because the US Department of Transportation considers licensing requirements of nonradiological (i.e., chemically toxic) hazards. The requirements of 10 CFR 71 are based primarily on consideration of radiological hazards. For completeness, this report provides information for assessing the effects of chemical toxicity. Evaluating the degree of compliance with the requirements of 10 CFR 71 is relatively straightforward. However, there are few precedents associated with developing TSRA risk assessments for packages that do not comply with all of the requirements of 10 CFR 71. The objective of the task is to develop Risk Evaluation Guidelines for DOE-AL to use when evaluating a TSRA. If the TSRA shows that the Risk Evaluation Guidelines are not exceeded, then from a risk perspective the TSRA should be approved if there is evidence that the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle has been applied

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

2009-01-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul P. Connell

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Connell, Paul P

2012-02-01

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

OpenAIRE

Jinsoo Shin; Hanseong Son; Gyunyoung Heo

2017-01-01

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluatio...

Evaluation of military field-water quality: Volume 6, Infectious organisms of military concern associated with nonconsumptive exposure: Assessment of health risks and recommendations for establishing related standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, R.C.; Olivieri, A.W.; Danielson, R.E.; Badger, P.G.

1986-02-01

This study is an assessment of the risk of illness due to exposure to water-related (i.e., water-based, water-washed) infectious organisms. The organisms under consideration are Aeromonas spp., Leptospira spp., Pseudomonas spp., Staphylococcus spp., non-cholerae Vibrio spp., Acanthamoeba spp., Balantidium coli, Naegleria spp., Ascaris lumbricoides, Dracunculus medinesis, Schistosoma spp., and the agents responsible for cercarial dermatitis (i.e., Trichobilharzia, Gigantobilharzia, and Austrobilharzia). Evaluation of the risk to disease associated with the above pathogens requires information in specific areas such as dose response, concentration of agents in the environment, and environmental persistence. The existing body of knowledge concerning these agents ranges from speculation to established fact. Unfortunately, areas of information critical to risk assessment are frequently unavailable. Because of this lack of data, the risk assessment presented is semiquantitative and limited to the presentation of an environmental classification scheme. 14 refs., 2 figs., 57 tabs.

Risk of therapy-related leukaemia and preleukaemia after Hodgkin's disease. Relation to age, cumulative dose of alkylating agents, and time from chemotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen-Bjergaard, J.; Specht, L.; Larsen, S.O.

1987-01-01

391 patients treated intensively for Hodgkin's disease were followed for up to 15 years to evaluate the risk of therapy-related acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (t-ANLL) and preleukaemia. Only two independent factors, patient age and cumulative dose of alkylating agents, were related to the risk...... of t-ANLL. The hazard rate of t-ANLL was roughly proportional to the square of patient age and to the total cumulative dose of alkylating agents. In 320 patients treated with alkylating agents the cumulative risk of t-ANLL increased steadily from 1 year after the start of treatment and reached 13.......0% (SE 3.0) at 10 years after which time there were no further cases. Calculated from cessation of therapy with alkylating agents, however, the cumulative risk curve increased steeply during the first 1-2 years then gradually levelled out and no new cases were observed beyond 7 years. With a 15-year...

Evaluation of creditability and risk minimisation : The effect of accounting for intangibles

OpenAIRE

Lukiyanov, Artem

2005-01-01

The recent history knows numerous examples of creditor’s inability to evaluate financial solvency of the client correctly. Creditors’ risks do not only concern individual relations between the two parties but the economy in general. The standard loan-giving procedure considers evaluation based on a number of financial ratios. Using the standard method a company that in reality is creditable may sometimes be counted as insolvent by the bank – due to the structure of the balance sheet, for inst...

Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinsoo Shin

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1989-08-01

This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

Reducing health risk in family members of patients with type 2 diabetes: views of first degree relatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O'Sullivan Bernadette

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients with type 2 diabetes can have an important role in discussing health risk within families. This study aimed to establish the acceptability to first degree relatives towards their relative with type 2 diabetes intervening as health promoters in their own families, using the Health Belief Model as a theoretical framework for evaluation. Methods Cross-sectional questionnaire design. Survey questionnaire for first degree relative (sibling or child mailed to a random sample of patients with type 2 diabetes registered with an urban hospital diabetes clinic (n = 607 eligible patients. Patients were asked to pass on questionnaires to one to two first degree relatives. Results Questionnaires were returned from 257 families (42% response rate with two responses provided by 107 families (a total of 364 questionnaires. The majority (94% of first degree relatives of patients with type 2 diabetes would like to be informed about reducing their risk. Half (48% of respondents reported being spoken to by a relative with type 2 diabetes about their risk of diabetes. Those spoken to were more likely to see themselves at risk of diabetes, to worry about developing diabetes and to view diabetes as a serious condition. Conclusions A role for patients with type 2 diabetes in discussing health risk in their family appears to be acceptable to many relatives. Discussion of risk and interventions to reduce health risk with their relatives should be encouraged in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Reducing health risk in family members of patients with type 2 diabetes: views of first degree relatives.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Whitford, David L

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes can have an important role in discussing health risk within families. This study aimed to establish the acceptability to first degree relatives towards their relative with type 2 diabetes intervening as health promoters in their own families, using the Health Belief Model as a theoretical framework for evaluation. METHODS: Cross-sectional questionnaire design. Survey questionnaire for first degree relative (sibling or child) mailed to a random sample of patients with type 2 diabetes registered with an urban hospital diabetes clinic (n = 607 eligible patients). Patients were asked to pass on questionnaires to one to two first degree relatives. RESULTS: Questionnaires were returned from 257 families (42% response rate) with two responses provided by 107 families (a total of 364 questionnaires). The majority (94%) of first degree relatives of patients with type 2 diabetes would like to be informed about reducing their risk. Half (48%) of respondents reported being spoken to by a relative with type 2 diabetes about their risk of diabetes. Those spoken to were more likely to see themselves at risk of diabetes, to worry about developing diabetes and to view diabetes as a serious condition. CONCLUSIONS: A role for patients with type 2 diabetes in discussing health risk in their family appears to be acceptable to many relatives. Discussion of risk and interventions to reduce health risk with their relatives should be encouraged in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHENG, L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

2007-01-01

The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences

Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1991-10-01

This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

Science.gov (United States)

German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

School-related risk factors for drunkenness among adolescents: risk factors differ between socio-economic groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anette; Holstein, Bjørn E; Due, Pernille

2006-01-01

Purpose: To examine, separately for boys and girls, whether socio-economic differences in drunkenness exist in adolescence, whether the level of exposure to school-related risk factors differ between socio-economic groups, and whether the relative contribution of school-related risk factors......) was measured by parental occupation. RESULTS: Among girls, exposures to school-related risk factors were more prevalent in lower socio-economic groups. Poor school satisfaction was associated with drunkenness among girls from high SEP, odds ratio (OR) = 2.98 (0.73-12.16). Among boys from high SEP autonomy...

Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Barsotti

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L.

2000-12-01

This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

Readability evaluation of Internet-based patient education materials related to the anesthesiology field.

Science.gov (United States)

De Oliveira, Gildasio S; Jung, Michael; Mccaffery, Kirsten J; McCarthy, Robert J; Wolf, Michael S

2015-08-01

The main objective of the current investigation was to assess the readability of Internet-based patient education materials related to the field of anesthesiology. We hypothesized that the majority of patient education materials would not be written according to current recommended readability grade level. Online patient education materials describing procedures, risks, and management of anesthesia-related topics were identified using the search engine Google (available at www.google.com) using the terms anesthesia, anesthesiology, anesthesia risks, and anesthesia care. Cross-sectional evaluation. None. Assessments of content readability were performed using validated instruments (Flesch-Kincaid Grade Formulae, the Gunning Frequency of Gobbledygook, the New Dale-Chall Test, the Fry graph, and the Flesch Reading Ease score). Ninety-six Web sites containing Internet patient education materials (IPEMs) were evaluated. The median (interquartile range) readability grade level for all evaluated IPEMs was 13.5 (12.0-14.6). All the evaluated documents were classified at a greater readability level than the current recommended readability grade, P Internet-based patient education materials related to the field of anesthesiology are currently written far above the recommended readability grade level. High complexity of written education materials likely limits access of information to millions of American patients. Redesign of online content of Web sites that provide patient education material regarding anesthesia could be an important step in improving access to information for patients with poor health literacy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MicroRNA related polymorphisms and breast cancer risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sofia Khan

Full Text Available Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in microRNAs (miRNA or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS. Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC. Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI: 0.88-0.96, rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05 located in the 3' UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects.

MicroRNA Related Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Sofia; Greco, Dario; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Dennis, Joe; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Liu, Jianjun; Hall, Per; Irwanto, Astrid; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Czene, Kamila; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Johnson, Nichola; Gibson, Lorna; Aitken, Zoe; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Bui, Minh; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Stone, Jennifer; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel A.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Chanock, Stephen J.; Hunter, David J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J. V. a. n't.; Hogervorst, Frans B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Schrauder, Michael G.; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Benitez, Javier; Zamora, Pilar M.; Perez, Jose I. A.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Couch, Fergus J.; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Olson, Janet E.; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Mulot, Claire; Marme, Frederick; Burwinkel, Barbara; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Tchatchou, Sandrine; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Barile, Monica; Mariani, Paolo; Hooning, Maartje J.; Martens, John W. M.; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Giles, Graham G.; McLean, Catriona; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Simard, Jacques; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Hamann, Ute; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

2014-01-01

Genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs (miRNA) or in the miRNA binding sites may affect the miRNA dependent gene expression regulation, which has been implicated in various cancers, including breast cancer, and may alter individual susceptibility to cancer. We investigated associations between miRNA related SNPs and breast cancer risk. First we evaluated 2,196 SNPs in a case-control study combining nine genome wide association studies (GWAS). Second, we further investigated 42 SNPs with suggestive evidence for association using 41,785 cases and 41,880 controls from 41 studies included in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Combining the GWAS and BCAC data within a meta-analysis, we estimated main effects on breast cancer risk as well as risks for estrogen receptor (ER) and age defined subgroups. Five miRNA binding site SNPs associated significantly with breast cancer risk: rs1045494 (odds ratio (OR) 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.96), rs1052532 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99), rs10719 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), rs4687554 (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99, and rs3134615 (OR 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05) located in the 3′ UTR of CASP8, HDDC3, DROSHA, MUSTN1, and MYCL1, respectively. DROSHA belongs to miRNA machinery genes and has a central role in initial miRNA processing. The remaining genes are involved in different molecular functions, including apoptosis and gene expression regulation. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether the miRNA binding site SNPs are the causative variants for the observed risk effects. PMID:25390939

Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Martens, M.H.J.

2012-01-01

The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

2001-03-01

he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

Evaluation of Selected Atherosclerosis Risk Factors in Women with Subclinical Hypothyroidism Treated with L-Thyroxine.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamarczuk-Janczyszyn, Maria; Zdrojowy-Wełna, Aleksandra; Rogala, Natalia; Zatońska, Katarzyna; Bednarek-Tupikowska, Grażyna

2016-01-01

Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) is a common endocrine disorder, probably increasing cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, the relation between SCH and atherosclerosis risk factors remains unclear. The aim of the study was to evaluate selected atherosclerosis risk factors in women with SCH in comparison to a group of healthy women and women with overt hypothyroidism, as well as to investigate the influence of L-thyroxine replacement on those risk factors. The study group consisted of 187 obese women aged between 50 and 70 years: 100 women with SCH, 45 women with overt hypothyroidism and 42 women with TSH level in reference ranges. Anthropometric parameters were evaluated. Laboratory tests included thyroid hormones concentrations, lipid profile with apolipoproteins, CRP, homocysteine. Atherosclerotic indexes were calculated: LDL C/HDL C ratio, apoA1/apoB ratio and Castelli risk index. Women with hypothyroidism were given L-thyroxine treatment and after 6 months in euthyroidism the evaluation was repeated. Total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides concentrations as well as LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and Castelli index were higher in SCH than in controls and decreased after L-thyroxin substitution. All of the calculated atherosclerosis indexes showed significant positive correlations with TSH concentration in SCH group. Also in this group the systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased significantly after treatment. Dyslipidemia in obese SCH women is not severe, but if untreated for many years, it may lead to atherosclerosis. Substitution therapy improves the lipid profile, changing the relations between protective and proatherogenic fractions of serum lipids, and optimises blood pressure.

Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

1992-01-01

The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

2006-01-01

This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

Affect and Acceptability: Exploring Teachers' Technology-Related Risk Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Sarah K.

2011-01-01

Educational change, such as technology integration, involves risk. Teachers are encouraged to "take risks", but what risks they are asked to take and how do they perceive these risks? Developing an understanding of teachers' technology-related risk perceptions can help explain their choices and behaviours. This paper presents a way to…

Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

Elderly Taiwanese's Intrinsic Risk Factors for Fall-related Injuries

OpenAIRE

In-Fun Li; Yvonne Hsiung; Hui-Fen Hsing; Mei-Yu Lee; Te-Hsin Chang; Ming-Yuan Huang

2016-01-01

Background: As a vital issue in geriatric research, risk factors for falls were concluded to be multifactorial, and prevention has been mostly aimed at decreasing situational and environmental risks that cause and aggravate fall-related injuries, particularly within the institutions. While knowledge is limited about older patients' intrinsic determinants, the purpose of this study was to explore elderly Taiwanese's intrinsic risk factors associated with severe fall-related injuries. Method...

[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

EVALUATING KEY ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTORS FOR POLLUTION AT INTERNATIONAL PORTS IN TAIWAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuan-Hao Chang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP approach to evaluate the key environmental risk factors for pollution at international ports in Taiwan. Relying on the literature and experts’ opinions, a hierarchical structure with three risk aspects and thirteen risk factors is first constructed, and a FAHP model then proposed. Based on data from the AHP experts’ questionnaires, we use the FAHP approach to determine key environmental risk factors. Finally, the results show that: (1 Air pollution is the most important aspect of environmental pollution at international ports in Taiwan. (2 In order of relative importance, the top five key environmental risk factors for pollution at international ports in Taiwan are the oil leaks from ships, volatile organic compounds (VOCs, exhaust emissions from ships at berth, harmful coatings on ships' hulls, and ships' failure to use low-pollution fuel. Furthermore, some discussions are provided for port authority in Taiwan.

Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, E.C.

1998-05-01

On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

Dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy: Evaluation of risk factors and assessment of endoscopic intervention

OpenAIRE

Nath, Anand; Yewale, Sayali; Tran, Tung; Brebbia, John S; Shope, Timothy R; Koch, Timothy R

2016-01-01

AIM To evaluate the risks of medical conditions, evaluate gastric sleeve narrowing, and assess hydrostatic balloon dilatation to treat dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). METHODS VSG is being performed more frequently worldwide as a treatment for medically-complicated obesity, and dysphagia is common post-operatively. We hypothesize that post-operative dysphagia is related to underlying medical conditions or narrowing of the gastric sleeve. This is a retrospective, single insti...

Risk of treatment-related esophageal cancer among breast cancer survivors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morton, L M; Gilbert, E S; Hall, P

2012-01-01

Radiotherapy for breast cancer may expose the esophagus to ionizing radiation, but no study has evaluated esophageal cancer risk after breast cancer associated with radiation dose or systemic therapy use.......Radiotherapy for breast cancer may expose the esophagus to ionizing radiation, but no study has evaluated esophageal cancer risk after breast cancer associated with radiation dose or systemic therapy use....

Evaluation of the Clinical Performance of the HPV-Risk Assay Using the VALGENT-3 Panel.

Science.gov (United States)

Polman, N J; Oštrbenk, A; Xu, L; Snijders, P J F; Meijer, C J L M; Poljak, M; Heideman, D A M; Arbyn, M

2017-12-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is increasingly being incorporated into cervical cancer screening. The Validation of HPV Genotyping Tests (VALGENT) is a framework designed to evaluate the clinical performance of various HPV tests relative to that of the validated and accepted comparator test in a formalized and uniform manner. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay with samples from the VALGENT-3 panel and to compare its performance to that of the clinically validated Hybrid Capture 2 assay (HC2). The VALGENT-3 panel comprises 1,300 consecutive samples from women participating in routine cervical cancer screening and is enriched with 300 samples from women with abnormal cytology. DNA was extracted from original ThinPrep PreservCyt medium aliquots, and HPV testing was performed using the HPV-Risk assay by investigators blind to the clinical data. HPV prevalence was analyzed, and the clinical performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) and CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) relative to the performance of HC2 was assessed. The sensitivity of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ was similar to that of HC2 (relative sensitivity, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 1.05; P = 1.000), but the specificity of the HPV-Risk assay was significantly higher than that of HC2 (relative specificity, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04; P performance of the HPV-Risk assay for the detection of CIN3+ and CIN2+ was noninferior to that of HC2, with all P values being ≤0.006. In conclusion, the HPV-Risk assay demonstrated noninferiority to the clinically validated HC2 by the use of samples from the VALGENT-3 panel for test validation and comparison. Copyright © 2017 Polman et al.

Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Zernike, W; Henderson, A

1999-06-01

This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

Public attitudes towards industrial, work-related and other risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prescott-Clarke, P.

1982-01-01

Two reports describing work sponsored by the Health and Safety Executive are presented. The first describes a study of public attitudes towards industrial, work related, nuclear industry related and other risks. The second report describes public attitudes towards the acceptability of risks. (U.K.)

Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Christoffer

2010-01-01

The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology.......The rapid increase in mobile telephone use has generated concern about possible health risks related to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from this technology....

Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerman, J.

2005-01-01

The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

Young people's perspectives on health-related risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace Elisabeth Spencer

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Drawing upon current socio-cultural understandings of risk, this study highlights the disjunction between the expert risk discourses that permeate official public health policy and practice, and young people’s own perspectives on health and risk. Data were collected from young people aged 14-16 years through the use of group and individual interviews in a school and community youth centre setting. Findings from this study question the saliency of expert-defined health-related risks to young people’s everyday lives. Young people in this study saw health as closely linked to ‘being happy’. Friendships and a sense of personal achievement were particularly important to participants’ health and well-being. When accounting for their participation in health-related practices identified as ‘risky’ in government policy – such as smoking, alcohol and substance use – young people emphasised the levels of pressure they experienced. Sources of pressure included arguments and bullying, school work, and negative stereotypes of young people in general. These areas indicated young people’s concerns that reach beyond the official prescriptions permeating current health policy.

7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk... Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. The articles listed in...(b), pending the completion of an evaluation by APHIS of the potential pest risks associated with the...

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Computer and Game Science, Joongbu University, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-04-15

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young; Son, Han Seong

2017-01-01

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

1999-01-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event

Varied definitions of risk related to sensation seeking trait

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daastoel, P.Oe.U.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M. [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

1999-12-01

This pilot study is based on the assumption and the knowledge that previous results show that the normal use of the word risk varies across subjects. The risk definitions the subjects use have also been shown to be related to various educational interests. A related field of research has developed measures for Sensation Seeking personality trait, with four facets. Three independent groups of first year psychology students reported their normal definition of the word risk using one of three measurement formats. The results showed, e.g. that the typical open-ended response to the personal definition of risk was danger. Subjects who defined risk as the combination of probability and consequences tended to score higher on the total Sensation Seeking Scale, as compared to those defining risk as the probability of an event.

Economic assumptions for evaluating reactor-related options for managing plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothwell, G.

1996-01-01

This paper discusses the economic assumptions in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' report, Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium: Reactor-Related Options (1995). It reviews the Net Present Value approach for discounting and comparing the costs and benefits of reactor-related options. It argues that because risks associated with the returns to plutonium management are unlikely to be constant over time, it is preferable to use a real risk-free rate to discount cash flows and explicitly describe the probability distributions for costs and benefits, allowing decision makers to determine the risk premium of each option. As a baseline for comparison, it assumes that one economic benefit of changing the current plutonium management system is a reduction in on-going Surveillance and Maintenance (S and M) costs. This reduction in the present value of S and M costs can be compared with the discounted costs of each option. These costs include direct construction costs, indirect costs, operating costs minus revenues, and decontamination and decommissioning expenses. The paper also discusses how to conduct an uncertainty analysis. It finishes by summarizing conclusions and recommendations and discusses how these recommendations might apply to the evaluation of Russian plutonium management options. (author)

Risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical exposures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svendsen, Susanne Wulff; Dalbøge, Annett; Andersen, JH

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical shoulder exposures. METHODS: The study was based on the Musculoskeletal Research Database at the Dan......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical shoulder exposures. METHODS: The study was based on the Musculoskeletal Research Database....... Using no neck-shoulder complaints and low shoulder load at baseline as a reference, no neck-shoulder complaints and high shoulder load showed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR adj) of 2.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.59-4.09], while neck-shoulder complaints in combination with high shoulder load...

Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinying Li

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

[Mother-newborn relational risk - Study of prevalence and associated variables].

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Maribel; Poo, Ana María; Baeza, Bernardita; Bustos, M Luis

2015-01-01

Clinical evidence reveals the importance of mother-newborn bonding experience for health promoting and maintenance of human life. If the newborn lacks care and affection, she/he may develop an attachment disorder. A predictive scale regarding the risk of mothernewborn relationships is available, which makes possible an early intervention to prevent the development of relational disorders. The aim of this study is to apply the Kimelman measurement scale to determine the relational risk in mother-newborn pairs, as well as the prevalence and the associated biopsychosocial variables. A cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 333 mother-infant pairs in postpartum maternity at Temuco hospital. The Kimelman mother-newborn attachment assessment guide was used. Biopsychosocial variables were obtained from the mothers studied. The association of biopsychosocial variables with relational risk was analyzed using OR and confidence intervals of 95%. The prevalence of high relational risk was 43.8%. The associated biopsychosocial variables included, women with no steady partner, single parent, teenage mothers, unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. Almost half of the mothers were in the high risk group. Early identification of relational risk and its related variables could help in the intervention in this vulnerable group. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Khashman, Adnan

2009-08-01

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

Science.gov (United States)

Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

2017-09-01

Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Related Knowledge, Risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There was poor HIV preventive practices; indicating ... Gyawali, et al.: HIV related knowledge, risk perception and practices among married women. Annals of Medical .... of this study correspond to the Indian, Nigerian and Iranian studies cited ...

From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

1985-03-01

The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheetham Mark

2016-01-01

on a reach of over 380km of railway line. In order to characterise the component “probability”, data relating to important historic rainfall events have been used in the model against which known incidents on the railway line have been subsequently analysed. Initial results are very positive with a high level of capture of known incidents by the model in relation to the type of flooding recorded. The model RiskVIP allows the evaluation of flood risk to be undertaken at different scales and will aid in targeting precise reaches of railway line to be studied in more detail. It is a tool which can aid in the management of flood risk on the railway network, optimising for example the maintenance program of drainage structures, ensuring monitoring and inspections are targeted at problem reaches, identifying areas where civil works are necessary and improving the overall resilience of the railway system.

Coronary risk factors and metabolic disorders in first-degree relatives of normocholesterolaemic patients with premature atherosclerosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geluk, Christiane Anneliese; Halkes, C.J.M.; de Jaegere, P.P.T.; Plokker, H.W.M.; Cabezas, M.C.

2006-01-01

Aims. Despite agreement on the need for screening for the presence of cardiovascular risk factors in first-degree family members of patients with pre-mature coronary artery disease (CAD), this is not routinely carried out in relatives of normocholesterolaemic patients. We evaluated cardiovascular

Sleep Duration and Injury-Related Risk Behaviors Among High School Students--United States, 2007-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheaton, Anne G; Olsen, Emily O'Malley; Miller, Gabrielle F; Croft, Janet B

2016-04-08

Insufficient sleep is common among high school students and has been associated with an increased risk for motor vehicle crashes (1), sports injuries (2), and occupational injuries (3). To evaluate the association between self-reported sleep duration on an average school night and several injury-related risk behaviors (infrequent bicycle helmet use, infrequent seatbelt use, riding with a driver who had been drinking, drinking and driving, and texting while driving) among U.S. high school students, CDC analyzed data from 50,370 high school students (grades 9-12) who participated in the national Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBSs) in 2007, 2009, 2011, or 2013. The likelihood of each of the five risk behaviors was significantly higher for students who reported sleeping ≤7 hours on an average school night; infrequent seatbelt use, riding with a drinking driver, and drinking and driving were also more likely for students who reported sleeping ≥10 hours compared with 9 hours on an average school night. Although insufficient sleep directly contributes to injury risk, some of the increased risk associated with insufficient sleep might be caused by engaging in injury-related risk behaviors. Intervention efforts aimed at these behaviors might help reduce injuries resulting from sleepiness, as well as provide opportunities for increasing awareness of the importance of sleep.

Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

OpenAIRE

Alina Gagarina; Indre Pikturniene

2016-01-01

The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla) and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2×2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambi...

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-09-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

OpenAIRE

Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

2015-01-01

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

1975-01-01

A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Cancer-related fatigue--mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E

2014-10-01

Fatigue is one of the most common adverse effects of cancer that might persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and might be a risk factor of reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in patients with cancer have been well characterized and there is growing understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation seems to have a key role in fatigue before, during, and after cancer-treatment. However, there is a considerable variability in the presentation of cancer-related fatigue, much of which is not explained by disease-related or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors might be important in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have identified genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioural risk factors associated with cancer-related fatigue. Although no current gold-standard treatment for fatigue is available, a variety of intervention approaches have shown beneficial effects in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. This Review describes the mechanisms, risk factors, and possible interventions for cancer-related fatigue, focusing on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients.

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Waterborne disease-related risk perceptions in the Sonora River basin, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Morua, Agustin Robles; Halvorsen, Kathleen E; Mayer, Alex S

2011-05-01

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human-waste-related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater-management-related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally-related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human-wastewater-related risk communication within the region. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

2014-01-01

Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

Evaluation of food contamination and health risks caused by radioactive fallout released from atmospheric nuclear detonation tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoko; Ito, Yoshihiko; Yoneda, Minoru; Morisawa, Shinsuke

2011-01-01

Before Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, radionuclide like 137 Cs released from atmospheric nuclear detonation tests and Chernobyl disaster has been transported worldwide in the environment and finally taken up by humans through various pathways. In this research, dietary intake of 137 Cs and the related health risks to Japanese caused by chronic global radioactive food contamination from 1945 to 2010 were evaluated by using the mathematical model for the evaluation of global distribution of 137 Cs with food ingestion and domestic and international food supply model. The results of this evaluation can show a background situation before Fukushima disaster and give important information for the risk assessment of this disaster. (author)

Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1999-11-01

For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings.

Building-related risk factors and work-related lower respiratory symptoms in 80 office buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendell, M.J.; Naco, G.M.; Wilcox, T.G.; Sieber, W.K.

2002-01-01

We assessed building-related risk factors for lower respiratory symptoms in office workers. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in 1993 collected data during indoor environmental health investigations of workplaces. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess relationships between lower respiratory symptoms in office workers and risk factors plausibly related to microbiologic contamination. Among 2,435 occupants in 80 office buildings, frequent, work-related multiple lower respiratory symptoms were strongly associated, in multivariate models, with two risk factors for microbiologic contamination: poor pan drainage under cooling coils and debris in outside air intake. Associations tended to be stronger among those with a history of physician-diagnosed asthma. These findings suggest that adverse lower respiratory health effects from indoor work environments, although unusual, may occur in relation to poorly designed or maintained ventilation systems, particularly among previously diagnosed asthmatics. These findings require confirmation in more representative buildings

Risk sharing relations and enforcement mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barr, A.; Dekker, M.; Fafchamps, M.

2008-01-01

We investigate whether the set of available enforcement mechanisms affects the formation of risk sharing relations by applying dyadic regression analysis to data from a specifically designed behavioural experiment, two surveys and a genealogical mapping exercise. During the experiment participants

AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

OpenAIRE

Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

1992-01-01

Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

The control, at the design stage, of risks related to buildings management over time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Martani

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the present paper an apparatus of tools and methods is presented to evaluate, at the design stage, the risks over a set of objectives through buildings lifetime. To this purpose a tool is first presented to relate technological requirements of each technical elements to the pertinent maintenance interventions. Then a process is also proposed to estimate the risks on user requirements runningMonte Carlo simulations. The risk management process proposed in the present work aims to support designers and promoters in making predictions on the outcomes of long, not standardized, multivariable dependent processes – as the building process is – in order to indicate the attitude of a designed building to meet a framework of important objectives through its lifetime.

Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

1987-07-01

A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did not perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Safety evaluations by means of the method use of the risk matrix in radiotherapy treatments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, L.; Diaz, A.; Correa, T.; Gonzalez, Y.

2014-08-01

are not events with catastrophic consequences, except the related with the manual planning of treatments. Of all the events that were analyzed only one had incidence for the worker. For the Linac only 7% represents the high risk, and it does not have relationship with events of serious or catastrophic consequences; not to have the dosimetry in vivo is the barrier that more contributes it, either in the first treatment session or in the weekly continuation, the other of more influence is not to have a programmed maintenance program as frequency reducer. We can conclude that the safety evaluation to the service was carried out and were identified the main causes that could cause accidental exposures, also we continue working on the vulnerable points related with the treatment that it offers, in order to diminish the initiators with high risk and to guarantee that those that were evaluated with half risk do not evolve to the superior category. The work demonstrated that the human errors are the main cause that can unchain an accidental sequence of high risk. (Author)

Autoantibodies to IA-2beta improve diabetes risk assessment in high-risk relatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Achenbach, P; Bonifacio, E; Williams, A J K

2008-01-01

-positive participants (median age 12.1 years; 57% male), 113 developed diabetes (5 year cumulative risk 56%), and 148 were also GADA-positive and IAA-positive (4Ab-positive). IA2betaA were detected in 137 (65%) ICA/IA2A-positive participants and were associated with an increased 5 year diabetes risk (IA2beta......A-positive 65 vs 39% in IA2betaA-negative, p=0.0002). The effect was most marked in 4Ab-positive relatives (72% vs 52%, p=0.003). Metabolic testing further refined risk assessment. Among 101 4Ab-positive relatives with IA2betaA, the 5 year risk was 94% in those with a low FPIR (vs 50% in those with a normal...... FPIR, p4Ab/IA2betaA-positive participants with a low FPIR was 1.5 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed IA2betaA status, antibody number, young...

Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

2009-01-01

This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

Company Risk-related Disclosures in a Code Law Country: A Synopsis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Oliveira

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This synopsis provides a concise historical contextualisation of current risk disclosure issues, highlights major factors influencing contemporary risk reporting practices, and engages in a reflective overview of four recently published papers on aspects of corporate risk-related disclosures in a code law country, Portugal. The breadthand depth of our analysis is modest. Nonetheless we report findings indicating that risk-related disclosures are inadequate, lack transparency, and compound the difficulty of assessing the risk profile of a company. We contend that recent regulation initiatives have been of dubious effectiveness in improving the quality of riskinformation disclosed. In respect of the Portuguese context, we find that companies disclose risk-related information principally to reduce agency costs and to enhance corporate reputation. We contend that enhanced corporate accountability would be more likely to ensue if further disclosures of relevant risk-related information were mandated. One mechanism to do so would be through regulations recommended by the International Integrated Reporting Committee (IIRC.

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

2010-06-01

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Moffett

2007-09-01

Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

Risk Evaluation for CO2 Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup, Illinois Basin Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

2014-09-30

porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO2 plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO2-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

The influence of baseline risk on the relation between HbA1c and risk for new cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Bots, Sophie H; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M W; de Borst, Gert Jan; Kappelle, Jaap L; Visseren, Frank L J; Westerink, Jan

2016-07-19

Strict glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes has proven to have microvascular benefits while the effects on CVD and mortality are less clear, especially in high risk patients. Whether strict glycaemic control would reduce the risk of future CVD or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing CVD, is unknown. This study aims to evaluate whether the relation between baseline HbA1c and new cardiovascular events or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is modified by baseline vascular risk. A cohort of 1096 patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease (SMART) study was followed. The relation between HbA1c at baseline and future vascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analyses in a population that was stratified for baseline risk for vascular events as calculated with the SMART risk score. The mean follow-up duration was 6.9 years for all-cause mortality and 6.4 years for vascular events, in which period 243 and 223 cases were reported, respectively. A 1 % increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for all-cause mortality (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.06-1.31). This association was also found in the highest SMART risk quartile (HR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.11-1.60). There was no relation between HbA1c and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up (HR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.91-1.16). The interaction term between HbA1c and SMART risk score was not significantly related to any of the outcomes. In patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD, HbA1c is related to the risk of all-cause mortality, but not to the risk of cardiovascular events. The relation between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and vascular disease is not dependent on baseline vascular risk.

Hazard evaluation and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritzsche, A.F.

1986-01-01

The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

Risk evaluation for motor operated valves in an Inservice Testing Program at a PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Y.C.; Chen, K.T.; Su, Y.L.; Ting, K.; Chien, F.T.; Li, G.D.; Huang, S.H.

2012-01-01

Safety related valves such as Motor Operated Valves (MOV), Air Operated Valves (AOV) or Check Valves (CV) play an important role in nuclear power plant. Functioning of these valves mainly aim at emergency reactivity control, post-accident residue heat removal, post-accident radioactivity removal and containment isolation when a design basis accident occurred. In order to maintain these valves under operable conditions, an Inservice Testing Program (IST) is defined for routine testing tasks based on the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code section XI code requirements. Risk based Inservice Testing Programs have been studied and developed extensively in the nuclear energy industry since the 1990s. Risk Based evaluations of IST can bring positive advantages to the licensee such as identifying the vulnerability of the system, reducing unnecessary testing burden, concentrating testing resources on the critical pass oriented valves and saving plant’s personnel dose exposure. This risk evaluation is incorporated with quantitative and qualitative analyses to the Motor Operated Valves under current Inservice Testing Program for PWR nuclear power plant in Taiwan. With the outcome of the risk classifications for the safety related MOVs through numerical or deterministic analyses, a risk based testing frequency relief is suggested to demonstrate the benefits received from the risk based Inservice Testing Program. The goal made of this study, it could be as a reference and cornerstone for the licensee to perform overall scope Risk-Informed Inservice Testing Program (RI-IST) evaluation by referring relevant methodologies established in this study.

Protective effects of plasma alpha-tocopherols on the risk of inorganic arsenic-related urothelial carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Chi-Jung; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Chen, Ying-Ting; Su, Chien-Tien; Wu, Chia-Chang; Shiue, Horng-Sheng; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Hsueh, Yu-Mei

2011-01-01

Arsenic plays an important role in producing oxidative stress in cultured cells. To investigate the interaction between high oxidative stress and low arsenic methylation capacity on arsenic carcinogenesis, a case-control study was conducted to evaluate the relationship among the indices of oxidative stress, such as urinary 8-hydroxydeoxyquanine (8-OHdG), as well as plasma micronutrients and urinary arsenic profiles on urothelial carcinoma (UC) risk. Urinary 8-OHdG was measured using high-sensitivity enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. The urinary arsenic species were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography and hydride generator-atomic absorption spectrometry. Plasma micronutrient levels were analyzed using reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography. The present study showed a significant protective effect of plasma alpha-tocopherol on UC risk. Plasma alpha-tocopherol levels were significantly inversely related to urinary total arsenic concentrations and inorganic arsenic percentage (InAs%), and significantly positively related to dimethylarsinic acid percentage (DMA%). There were no correlations between plasma micronutrients and urinary 8-OHdG. Study participants with lower alpha-tocopherol and higher urinary total arsenic, higher InAs%, higher MMA%, and lower DMA% had a higher UC risk than those with higher alpha-tocopherol and lower urinary total arsenic, lower InAs%, lower MMA%, and higher DMA%. These results suggest that plasma alpha-tocopherol might modify the risk of inorganic arsenic-related UC. - Research Highlights: → Plasma alpha-tocopherol levels were significantly inversely related to UC risk. → There were no correlations between plasma micronutrients and urinary 8-OHdG. → People with lower alpha-tocopherol and higher total arsenic had increased UC risk.

Protective effects of plasma alpha-tocopherols on the risk of inorganic arsenic-related urothelial carcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Chi-Jung [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Pu, Yeong-Shiau [Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Chen, Ying-Ting [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Su, Chien-Tien [Department of Family Medicine, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Wu, Chia-Chang [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Urology, Taipei Medical Universtiy-Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Shiue, Horng-Sheng [Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Taoyuan, Taiwan (China); Huang, Chao-Yuan [Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsueh, Yu-Mei, E-mail: ymhsueh@tmu.edu.tw [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China)

2011-02-15

Arsenic plays an important role in producing oxidative stress in cultured cells. To investigate the interaction between high oxidative stress and low arsenic methylation capacity on arsenic carcinogenesis, a case-control study was conducted to evaluate the relationship among the indices of oxidative stress, such as urinary 8-hydroxydeoxyquanine (8-OHdG), as well as plasma micronutrients and urinary arsenic profiles on urothelial carcinoma (UC) risk. Urinary 8-OHdG was measured using high-sensitivity enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. The urinary arsenic species were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography and hydride generator-atomic absorption spectrometry. Plasma micronutrient levels were analyzed using reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography. The present study showed a significant protective effect of plasma alpha-tocopherol on UC risk. Plasma alpha-tocopherol levels were significantly inversely related to urinary total arsenic concentrations and inorganic arsenic percentage (InAs%), and significantly positively related to dimethylarsinic acid percentage (DMA%). There were no correlations between plasma micronutrients and urinary 8-OHdG. Study participants with lower alpha-tocopherol and higher urinary total arsenic, higher InAs%, higher MMA%, and lower DMA% had a higher UC risk than those with higher alpha-tocopherol and lower urinary total arsenic, lower InAs%, lower MMA%, and higher DMA%. These results suggest that plasma alpha-tocopherol might modify the risk of inorganic arsenic-related UC. - Research Highlights: {yields} Plasma alpha-tocopherol levels were significantly inversely related to UC risk. {yields} There were no correlations between plasma micronutrients and urinary 8-OHdG. {yields} People with lower alpha-tocopherol and higher total arsenic had increased UC risk.

Relation between risk of falling and postural sway complexity in diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, S; Colberg, S R; Parson, H K; Vinik, A I

2012-04-01

For older individuals with diabetes, any decline in balance control can be especially problematic since it is often a precursor to an increased risk of falling. This study was designed to evaluate differences in postural motion dynamics and falls risk for older individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) classified as fallers/non-fallers and, to assess what impact exercise has on balance and falls risk. The results demonstrated that the risk of falling is greater for those older individuals with multiple risk factors including diabetes and a previous falls history. The postural motion features of the high-risk individuals (T2DM-fallers) were also different, being characterized by increased variability and complexity, increased AP-ML coupling, less overall COP motion and increased velocity. One suggestion is that these individuals evoked a stiffening strategy during the more challenging postural tasks. Following training, a decline in falls risk was observed for all groups, with this effect being most pronounced for the T2DM-fallers. Interestingly, the COP motion of this group became more similar to controls, exhibiting decreased complexity and variability, and decreased velocity. The reciprocal changes in COP complexity support the broader view that age/disease-related changes in physiological complexity are bi-directional. Overall, these results show that, even for older T2DM individuals at greater risk of falling, targeted interventions can positively enhance their postural dynamics. Further, the finding that the pattern of postural motion variability and complexity was altered highlights that a decline in physiological complexity may not always be negatively associated with aging and/or disease. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the relationship between fall risk-increasing drugs and fall-related fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

De Winter, Sabrina; Vanwynsberghe, Sarah; Foulon, Veerle; Dejaeger, Eddy; Flamaing, Johan; Sermon, An; Van der Linden, Lorenz; Spriet, Isabel

2016-04-01

Hospital admissions due to fall-related fractures are a major problem in the aging population. Several risk factors have been identified, including drug use. Most studies often retrieved prescription-only drugs from national databases. These are associated with some limitations as they do not always reliably reproduce the complete patient's active drug list. To evaluate the association between the number of FRIDs intake identified by a standardised medication reconciliation process and a fall-related fracture leading to a hospital admission in older adults. The first cohort has been recruited from one traumatology ward of a tertiary teaching hospital in Belgium and the second cohort has been recruited from 11 community pharmacies in Belgium. A prospective study with two individually matched cohorts was performed. Adult patients (≥75 years) admitted with an injury due to a fall were included in the first cohort (faller group). The second cohort consisted of patients who did not suffer from a fall within the last 6 months (non-faller group). Matching was performed for age, gender, place of residence and use of a walking aid. In both groups, clinical pharmacists and undergraduate pharmacy students obtained the medication history, using a standardised approach. A list of drugs considered to increase the risk of falling was created. It included cardiovascular drugs and drugs acting on the nervous system. A linear mixed model was used to compare the number of fall risk-increasing drugs between fallers and non-fallers. The number of fall risk-increasing drugs in a faller versus a non-faller group. Sixty-one patients were matched with 121 non-fallers. Patients received on average 3.1 ± 2.1 and 3.2 ± 1.8 fall risk-increasing drugs in the faller and in the non-faller group, respectively. The mean number of fall risk-increasing drugs was comparable in both groups (p = 0.844), even after adjusting for alcohol consumption, fear of falling, vision and foot problems (p = 0

Risk factors for treatment related clinical fluctuations in Guillain-Barré syndrome. Dutch Guillain-Barré study group

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.H. Visser (Leendert); F.G.A. van der Meché (Frans); J. Meulstee (Jan); P.A. van Doorn (Pieter)

1998-01-01

textabstractThe risk factors for treatment related clinical fluctuations, relapses occurring after initial therapeutic induced stabilisation or improvement, were evaluated in a group of 172 patients with Guillain-Barre syndrome. Clinical, laboratory, and electrodiagnostic features

Cancer-related fatigue: Mechanisms, risk factors, and treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Julienne E.

2015-01-01

Fatigue is one of the most common and distressing side effects of cancer and its treatment, and may persist for years after treatment completion in otherwise healthy survivors. Cancer-related fatigue causes disruption in all aspects of quality of life and may be a risk factor for reduced survival. The prevalence and course of fatigue in cancer patients has been well characterized, and there is growing understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Inflammation has emerged as a key biological pathway for cancer-related fatigue, with studies documenting links between markers of inflammation and fatigue before, during, and particularly after treatment. There is considerable variability in the experience of cancer-related fatigue that is not explained by disease- or treatment-related characteristics, suggesting that host factors may play an important role in the development and persistence of this symptom. Indeed, longitudinal studies have begun to identify genetic, biological, psychosocial, and behavioral risk factors for cancer-related fatigue. Given the multi-factorial nature of cancer-related fatigue, a variety of intervention approaches have been examined in randomized controlled trials, including physical activity, psychosocial, mind-body, and pharmacological treatments. Although there is currently no gold standard for treating fatigue, several of these approaches have shown beneficial effects and can be recommended to patients. This report provides a state of the science review of mechanisms, risk factors, and interventions for cancer-related fatigue, with a focus on recent longitudinal studies and randomized trials that have targeted fatigued patients. PMID:25113839

Associations of whole and refined grain intakes with adiposity-related cancer risk in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1991-2013)

Science.gov (United States)

Objective: The objective of this prospective cohort study is to evaluate associations between whole and refined grains and their food sources in relation to risk of adiposity-related cancers combined and three of the most commonly diagnosed site-specific cancers in the US: breast, prostate, and colo...

Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D; Poloni, Estella S; van 't Wout, Angélique B; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; De Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; De Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E; Schölvinck, Elisabeth H.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the

A prospective study of gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, T M; De Clercq, D; Delbaere, K; Vanderstraeten, G; De Cock, A; Witvrouw, E

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine prospectively gait related risk factors for exercise-related lower leg pain (ERLLP) in 400 physical education students. Static lower leg alignment was determined, and 3D gait kinematics combined with plantar pressure profiles were collected. After this evaluation, all sports injuries were registered by the same sports physician during the duration of the study. Forty six subjects developed ERLLP and 29 of them developed bilateral symptoms thus giving 75 symptomatic lower legs. Bilateral lower legs of 167 subjects who developed no injuries in the lower extremities served as controls. Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects who developed ERLLP had an altered running pattern before the injury compared to the controls and included (1) a significantly more central heel-strike, (2) a significantly increased pronation, accompanied with more pressure underneath the medial side of the foot, and (3) a significantly more lateral roll-off. These findings suggest that altered biomechanics play a role in the genesis of ERLLP and thus should be considered in prevention and rehabilitation.

Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

Ergonomic analysis for the assessment of the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorder in forestry operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimondo Gallo

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The risk to run into a Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSD is very high when operating in the primary sector. As a matter of fact the professional illnesses related to the WMSD in Italy are increasing. Nowadays the assessment of the WMSD in the primary sector is performed mainly in the agricultural sector, considering different agronomical activities; for the forestry sector, only few documents reported an ergonomic evaluation. The lack of available information on this topic in the forestry sector, as well as the similarity with the agricultural sector, drives the interest to the assessment of the conditions that expose workers to WMSD risks in forestry operations. Four different assessment approaches were applied in this study. These tools permitted to classify which are the exposures and if there is the presence of WMSD risk for forest operators. The approaches are respectively the OCRA checklist and the RNLE equation, both recognized as ISO standards, as well as OWAS and REBA, recommended by ISO standards. The first approach focusses on the risk due to repetitive and stressed movements, while the second evaluates the risk of injures due to the manual movement of loads. Meanwhile OWAS and REBA detect the possibility of injures due to wrong postures during the work. These approaches were applied for the cutting operations with chainsaw. Since the evaluation requires high levels of attention and also because it was necessary to gain a good level of safety for the surveyor, a digital camera was used to film the operative activities. Then, the movies were analysed in office. Aim of the research is to analyse if it is possible to apply the approaches suggested by ISO standards in order to assess the most dangerous activities that, when not properly carried out, could be the cause of WMSD in forestry operations. The study showed that during the use of the chainsaw the index of risk of professional injures was overpassed several times

Evaluation of major risk factors related to depression among medical students of NRS medical college.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mukhopadhyay Prianka, Sain Sonali, Mandal Nirmal Kumar, Saha Tushar Kanti , Dey Indira, Chattopadhyay Amitava

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Background and objectives: Medical students experience depression, burnout, and mental illness at a higher rate than general population. A better understanding of related risk factors can help target appropriate support services for them. The aim of the study was to assess the occurrence of depression and identify its risk factors among undergraduate students in a medical College in Kolkata, India. Methodology: A descriptive, cross-sectional study using a two stage, stratified cluster sampling technique was used to select a sample of 289 students. Data were collected using a self-administered, anonymous questionnaire based on Becks Depression Inventory II. Results: The mean score of students on depression scale was 10.47±10.39. 22.5 % of students tested positive for some form of depression while 6.2% had severe to extreme depression. The risk factors of depressive symptoms identified were older age, lower family income, students who did not choose admission in MBBS course on their own, had addictions, felt negatively about results, faced difficulty with study course and had relationship issues. Students with relationship issues in their personal lives were 3.7 times more likely to exhibit depressive symptoms than without them. Students who faced difficulty coping with study course were 2.18 times more likely to exhibit depressive symptoms than without them. Conclusion: Academic performance alone doesn’t influence the mental health of students, rather factors like older age, socioeconomic status, role in choice of medical career, negative perception of academic performance, difficulty with study course and relationship issues are also important.

Contributions of polygenic risk for obesity to PTSD-related metabolic syndrome and cortical thickness.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Erika J; Miller, Danielle R; Logue, Mark W; Sumner, Jennifer; Stoop, Tawni B; Leritz, Elizabeth C; Hayes, Jasmeet P; Stone, Annjanette; Schichman, Steven A; McGlinchey, Regina E; Milberg, William P; Miller, Mark W

2017-10-01

Research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and that PTSD-associated MetS is related to decreased cortical thickness. However, the role of genetic factors in these associations is unclear. This study evaluated contributions of polygenic obesity risk and PTSD to MetS and of MetS and polygenic obesity risk to cortical thickness. 196 white, non-Hispanic veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent clinical diagnostic interviews, physiological assessments, and genome-wide genotyping; 168 also completed magnetic resonance imaging scans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for obesity were calculated from results of a prior genome-wide association study (Speliotes et al., 2010) and PTSD and MetS severity factor scores were obtained. Obesity PRS (β=0.15, p=0.009) and PTSD (β=0.17, p=0.005) predicted MetS and interacted such that the association between PTSD and MetS was stronger in individuals with greater polygenic obesity risk (β=0.13, p=0.02). Whole-brain vertex-wise analyses suggested that obesity PRS interacted with MetS to predict decreased cortical thickness in left rostral middle frontal gyrus (β=-0.40, pobesity genetic risk increases stress-related metabolic pathology, and compounds the ill health effects of MetS on the brain. Genetic proclivity towards MetS should be considered in PTSD patients when prescribing psychotropic medications with adverse metabolic profiles. Results are consistent with a growing literature suggestive of PTSD-related accelerated aging. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Gender differences in the relations between work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors and musculoskeletal complaints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hooftman, W.E.; Poppel, M.N.M. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Bongers, P.M.; Mechelen, W. van

2004-01-01

Gender differences in the prevalence of musculoskeletal complaints might be explained by differences in the effect of exposure to work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors. A systematic review was conducted to examine gender differences in the relations between these risk factors and

Technical specifications review of nuclear power plants: a risk-informed evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saldanha, Pedro Luiz da Cruz; Sousa, Anna Leticia; Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira; Duarte, Juliana Pacheco

2012-01-01

The use of risk information by a regulatory body as part of an integrated decision making process addresses the way in which risk information is being used as part of an integrated process in making decisions about safety issues at nuclear plants – commonly referred to as risk-informed decision making. The risk-informed approach aims to integrate in a systematic manner quantitative and qualitative, deterministic and probabilistic safety considerations to obtain a balanced decision. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a methodology that can be applied to provide a structured analysis process to evaluate the frequency and consequences of accidents scenarios in nuclear power plants. Technical Specifications (TS) are specifications regarding the characteristics of nuclear power plants (variables, systems or components) of overriding importance to nuclear safety and radiation protection, which is an integral part of plant operation authorization. Limiting Conditions of Operation (LCO) are the minimum levels of performance or capacity or operating system components required for the safe operation of nuclear plants, as defined in technical specifications. The Maintenance Rule (MR) is a requirement established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to check the effectiveness of maintenance carried out in nuclear plants, and plant configuration control. The control of plant configuration is necessary to verify the impact of the maintenance of a safety device out of service on plant safety. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has assessed the role of probabilistic safety analysis in the regulation of nuclear power plants with the following objectives: a) to provide utilities with an approach for developing and implementing nuclear power station risk-managed technical specification programs; and b) to complement and supplement existing successful configuration risk management applications such as MR. This paper focuses on the evaluation of EPRI

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

Evaluation of the impact and inter-generation risk transfers related to the release and disposal of radioactive waste from the nuclear fuel cycle: a methodological exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croueail, P.; Schneider, T.; Sugier, A.

2000-01-01

Reflections about the consequences of decisions involving the long term raise various theoretical and complex issues related to the validity of the quantitative assessment of what could be future risks, but also to the ethical position we are adopting towards future generations. In this perspective, decision-making in the field of radioactive waste management, with a view to maintaining present and future radiation exposures as low as reasonably achievable, implies being able to discriminate among alternative options, i.e., being in a position to evaluate the differences in terms of radiological impacts between the options. Because of the complex and multi-dimensional nature of the distant future consequences of waste management options, their comparison involves expressing these impacts using various aggregated or disaggregated indicators, taking into account the time during which radionuclides remain in the environment and their local, regional, or world-wide dispersion. This paper is an attempt to contribute to the development of such a framework. It is mainly focused on the risk transfer dimension inherent to waste disposal management. Any decision to protect people now against the potential impacts of radioactive releases into the environment leads inevitably to the exposure of current generations and potentially of future generations. In this perspective, one of the key questions related to waste management is to decide on the best compromise between present dilution-dispersion into the environment or concentration in surface or underground disposal sites. The objective of this paper is to illustrate, the relative impact of different waste management options, focusing especially on inter-generational risk transfers. For the sake of the exercise, calculations have been performed for six particular radionuclides and for the current waste management options combining underground disposal and releases as well as for extreme alternative waste management options

Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

Science.gov (United States)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rotger, Margalida; Glass, Tracy R.; Junier, Thomas; Lundgren, Jens; Neaton, James D.; Poloni, Estella S.; van 't Wout, Angélique B.; Lubomirov, Rubin; Colombo, Sara; Martinez, Raquel; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Wentworth, Deborah; van Manen, Danielle; Gras, Luuk A.; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Albini, Laura; Torti, Carlo; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Li, Xiuhong; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Carli, Federica; Guaraldi, Giovanni; Ford, Emily S.; Sereti, Irini; Hadigan, Colleen; Martinez, Esteban; Arnedo, Mireia; Egaña-Gorroño, Lander; Gatell, Jose M.; Law, Matthew; Bendall, Courtney; Petoumenos, Kathy; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Kabamba, Kabeya; Delforge, Marc; de Wit, Stephane; Berger, Florian; Mauss, Stefan; de Paz Sierra, Mariana; Losso, Marcelo; Belloso, Waldo H.; Leyes, Maria; Campins, Antoni; Mondi, Annalisa; de Luca, Andrea; Bernardino, Ignacio; Barriuso-Iglesias, Mónica; Torrecilla-Rodriguez, Ana; Gonzalez-Garcia, Juan; Arribas, José R.; Fanti, Iuri; Gel, Silvia; Puig, Jordi; Negredo, Eugenia; Gutierrez, Mar; Domingo, Pere; Fischer, Julia; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Alonso-Villaverde, Carlos; Macken, Alan; Woo, James; McGinty, Tara; Mallon, Patrick; Mangili, Alexandra; Skinner, Sally; Wanke, Christine A.; Reiss, Peter; Weber, Rainer; Bucher, Heiner C.; Fellay, Jacques; Telenti, Amalio; Tarr, Philip E.; Gras, A. Luuk; van Wout, Angelique B.; Arnedo-Valero, Mireia; Sierra, Mariana de Paz; Rodriguez, Ana Torrecilla; Garcia, Juan Gonzalez; Arribas, Jose R.; Aubert, V.; Barth, J.; Battegay, M.; Bernasconi, E.; Böni, J.; Bucher, H. C.; Burton-Jeangros, C.; Calmy, A.; Cavassini, M.; Egger, M.; Elzi, L.; Fehr, J.; Fellay, J.; Francioli, P.; Furrer, H.; Fux, C. A.; Gorgievski, M.; Günthard, H.; Haerry, D.; Hasse, B.; Hirsch, H. H.; Hirschel, B.; Hösli, I.; Kahlert, C.; Kaiser, L.; Keiser, O.; Kind, C.; Klimkait, T.; Kovari, H.; Ledergerber, B.; Martinetti, G.; Martinez de Tejada, B.; Metzner, K.; Müller, N.; Nadal, D.; Pantaleo, G.; Rauch, A.; Regenass, S.; Rickenbach, M.; Rudin, C.; Schmid, P.; Schultze, D.; Schöni-Affolter, F.; Schüpbach, J.; Speck, R.; Taffé, P.; Tarr, P.; Telenti, A.; Trkola, A.; Vernazza, P.; Weber, R.; Prins, Yerly S. J. M.; Kuijpers, T. W.; Scherpbier, H. J.; Boer, K.; van der Meer, J. T. M.; Wit, F. W. M. N.; Godfried, M. H.; van der Poll, T.; Nellen, F. J. B.; Lange, J. M. A.; Geerlings, S. E.; van Vugt, M.; Vrouenraets, S. M. E.; Pajkrt, D.; Bos, J. C.; van der Valk, M.; Schreij, G.; Lowe, S.; Oude Lashof, A.; Pronk, M. J. H.; Bravenboer, B.; van der Ende, M. E.; de Vries-Sluijs, T. E. M. S.; Schurink, C. A. M.; van der Feltz, M.; Nouwen, J. L.; Gelinck, L. B. S.; Verbon, A.; Rijnders, B. J. A.; van de Ven-de Ruiter, E. D.; Slobbe, L.; Haag, Den; Kauffmann, R. H.; Schippers, E. F.; Groeneveld, P. H. P.; Alleman, M. A.; Bouwhuis, J. W.; ten Kate, R. W.; Soetekouw, R.; Kroon, F. P.; van den Broek, P. J.; van Dissel, J. T.; Arend, S. M.; van Nieuwkoop, C.; de Boer, M. J. G.; Jolink, H.; den Hollander, J. G.; Pogany, K.; Bronsveld, W.; Kortmann, W.; van Twillert, G.; van Houte, D. P. F.; Polée, M. B.; van Vonderen, M. G. A.; ten Napel, C. H. H.; Kootstra, G. J.; Brinkman, K.; Blok, W. L.; Frissen, P. H. J.; Schouten, W. E. M.; van den Berk, G. E. L.; Juttmann, J. R.; van Kasteren, M. E. E.; Brouwer, A. E.; Mulder, J. W.; van Gorp, E. C. M.; Smit, P. M.; Weijer, S.; van Eeden, A.; Verhagen, D. W. M.; Sprenger, H. G.; Doedens, R.; Scholvinck, E. H.; van Assen, S.; Stek, C. J.; Hoepelman, I. M.; Mudrikova, T.; Schneider, M. M. E.; Jaspers, C. A. J. J.; Ellerbroek, P. M.; Peters, E. J. G.; Maarschalk-Ellerbroek, L. J.; Oosterheert, J. J.; Arends, J. E.; Wassenberg, M. W. M.; van der Hilst, J. C. H.; Richter, C.; van der Berg, J. P.; Gisolf, E. H.; Margolick, Joseph B.; Plankey, Michael; Crain, Barbara; Dobs, Adrian; Farzadegan, Homayoon; Gallant, Joel; Johnson-Hill, Lisette; Sacktor, Ned; Selnes, Ola; Shepard, James; Thio, Chloe; Phair, John P.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Badri, Sheila; Conover, Craig; O'Gorman, Maurice; Ostrow, David; Palella, Frank; Ragin, Ann; Detels, Roger; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Aronow, Aaron; Bolan, Robert; Breen, Elizabeth; Butch, Anthony; Fahey, John; Jamieson, Beth; Miller, Eric N.; Oishi, John; Vinters, Harry; Visscher, Barbara R.; Wiley, Dorothy; Witt, Mallory; Yang, Otto; Young, Stephen; Zhang, Zuo Feng; Rinaldo, Charles R.; Becker, James T.; Cranston, Ross D.; Martinson, Jeremy J.; Mellors, John W.; Silvestre, Anthony J.; Stall, Ronald D.; Muñoz, Alvaro; Abraham, Alison; Althoff, Keri; Cox, Christopher; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Gange, Stephen J.; Golub, Elizabeth; Schollenberger, Janet; Seaberg, Eric C.; Su, Sol; Huebner, Robin E.; Dominguez, Geraldina; Moroni, M.; Angarano, G.; Antinori, A.; Carosi, G.; Cauda, R.; Monforte, A. d'Arminio; Di Perri, G.; Galli, M.; Iardino, R.; Ippolito, G.; Lazzarin, A.; Perno, C. F.; Sagnelli, E.; Viale, P. L.; Von Schlosser, F.; d'Arminio Monforte, A.; Ammassari, A.; Andreoni, M.; Balotta, C.; Bonfanti, P.; Bonora, S.; Borderi, M.; Capobianchi, M. R.; Castagna, A.; Ceccherini-Silberstein, F.; Cozzi-Lepri, A.; de Luca, A.; Gargiulo, M.; Gervasoni, C.; Girardi, E.; Lichtner, M.; Lo Caputo, S.; Madeddu, G.; Maggiolo, F.; Marcotullio, S.; Monno, L.; Murri, R.; Mussini, C.; Puoti, M.; Torti, C.; Fanti, I.; Formenti, T.; Galli, Laura; Lorenzini, Patrizia; Montroni, M.; Giacometti, A.; Costantini, A.; Riva, A.; Tirelli, U.; Martellotta, F.; Ladisa, N.; Lazzari, G.; Verucchi, G.; Castelli, F.; Scalzini, A.; Minardi, C.; Bertelli, D.; Quirino, T.; Abeli, C.; Manconi, P. E.; Piano, P.; Vecchiet, J.; Falasca, K.; Carnevale, G.; Lorenzotti, S.; Sighinolfi, L.; Segala, D.; Leoncini, F.; Mazzotta, F.; Pozzi, M.; Cassola, G.; Viscoli, G.; Viscoli, A.; Piscopo, R.; Mazzarello, G.; Mastroianni, C.; Belvisi, V.; Caramma, I.; Chiodera, A.; Castelli, P.; Rizzardini, G.; Ridolfo, A. L.; Foschi, A.; Salpietro, S.; Galli, A.; Bigoloni, A.; Spagnuolo, V.; Merli, S.; Carenzi, L.; Moioli, M. C.; Cicconi, P.; Bisio, L.; Gori, A.; Lapadula, G.; Abrescia, N.; Chirianni, A.; de Marco, M.; Ferrari, C.; Borghi, R.; Baldelli, F.; Belfiori, B.; Parruti, G.; Ursini, T.; Magnani, G.; Ursitti, M. A.; Narciso, P.; Tozzi, V.; Vullo, V.; d'Avino, A.; Zaccarelli, M.; Gallo, L.; Acinapura, R.; Capozzi, M.; Libertone, R.; Trotta, M. P.; Tebano, G.; Cattelan, A. M.; Mura, M. S.; Caramello, P.; Orofino, G. C.; Sciandra, M.; Raise, N. N.; Ebo, F.; Pellizzer, G.; Manfrin, V.; Law, M.; Petoumenos, K.; McManus, H.; Wright, S.; Bendall, C.; Moore, R.; Edwards, S.

2013-01-01

Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV

Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

1997-01-01

This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes

A model for managing cold-related health and safety risks at workplaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Risikko, Tanja; Mäkinen, Tiina M; Påsche, Arvid; Toivonen, Liisa; Hassi, Juhani

2003-05-01

Cold conditions increase health and safety risks at work in several ways. The effects of cold have not been sufficiently taken into consideration in occupational safety and health practices. A systematic model and methods were developed for managing cold-related health and safety risks at workplaces. The development work was performed, in a context-bound manner, in pilot industries and workplaces. The model can be integrated into the company's occupational health and safety management system, such as OHSAS 18001. The cold risks are identified and assessed by using a checklist. The preventive measures are systematically planned in a written form specifically produced for cold workplaces. It includes the organisational and technical preventive measures, protective clothing and personal protective equipment, as well as training and information of the personnel. According to the model, all the workers, foremen, occupational safety personnel and occupational health care personnel are trained to recognise the cold risks and to conduct preventive actions. The developed model was evaluated in the context of cold outdoor (construction) and indoor work (fish processing), and by occupational health and safety professionals. According to the feedback, the model and methods were easy to use after a one-day introduction session. The continuum between the cold risk assessment and management worked well, although there was some overlap in the documentation. The cold risk management model and its methods form an essential part of ISO CD 15743 Strategy for risk assessment, management and work practice in cold environments.

Perception and evaluation of risks. Findings of the 'Baden-Wuerttemberg Risk Survey 2001'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zwick, M.M.; Renn, O. (eds.)

2002-05-01

Since most of the empirical work on risk perception has been conducted in the 1970s and few studies are available that claim to span the full range of psychological, sociological and cultural variables, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) has conducted a representative survey in the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg on risk perception in the general population. In addition, a qualitative investigation based on a sample of 62 respondents was launched in 2001. The objective of the study was to determine the relative importance of psychometric, stigma-related, social value-related, trust-related and cultural variables in explaining risk perception and acceptance. The following report summarizes the results of these investigations. (orig.)

Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres Valle, A.

1996-01-01

The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

2016-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk-Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Kathleen F.; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Pepe, Margaret S.

2014-01-01

Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For pre-defined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true-positive and false-positive rates. We advocate use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid pre-defined risk categories. However, it suffers from many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap

Host-Country Related Risk Factors in International Construction: Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Güzin AYDOGAN

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Internationalization has been on the agenda of construction firms as a strategic option in global competition. Due to globalization every sector including the construction industry has faced with high levels of competitiveness, uncertainty, and risk. International construction involves common risks to domestic construction, as well as risks that are related to the host country. These risks have serious effects on the performance of international projects. Since the sustainable competitiveness of international contractors depends largely on the effective management of these risks, their assessment becomes vital for the success of international contractors. The main aim of this study is to analyse the risks for international construction projects that are related to the host country. Meta-analysis technique is used in order to determine these risks. This paper, therefore, reviews the literature that has been published in four most respected construction and management journals, these being; Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Journal of Management in Engineering, Construction Management and Economics, and International Journal of Project Management for the period of 2000-2010. International construction risk assessment models are also reviewed within the context of this study, since host country related risk factors were found to have serious effects on the profitability of international contractors due to literature review. As a result; political stability, law and regulations, exchange rate risk, cultural differences, inflation, expropriation, tax discrimination, language barrier, bribery and corruption, force majeure, and societal conflicts in the host country are found to be the most important risk factors in international construction. Findings of this study can be used in risk assessment models for international construction projects.

Consumption of Sugars, Sugary Foods and Sugary Beverages in Relation to Adiposity-Related Cancer Risk in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (1991-2013).

Science.gov (United States)

Makarem, Nour; Bandera, Elisa V; Lin, Yong; Jacques, Paul; Hayes, Richard B; Parekh, Niyati

2018-04-19

Higher sugar consumption may increase cancer risk by promoting insulin-glucose dysregulation, oxidative stress, hormonal imbalances, and excess adiposity. This prospective study investigates the association between dietary sugars(fructose and sucrose) and sugary foods and beverages in relation to combined and site-specific (breast, prostate, colorectal) adiposity-associated cancers. The analytic sample consisted of 3,184 adults, aged 26-84y, from the Framingham Offspring cohort. Diet data was first collected between 1991-1995 using a food frequency questionnaire. Intakes of fructose, sucrose, sugary foods and sugary beverages (fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages) were derived. Participants were followed up until 2013 to ascertain cancer incidence; 565 doctor-diagnosed adiposity-related cancers, including 124 breast, 157 prostate and 68 colorectal cancers occurred. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations. Tests for interaction with BMI and waist circumference were conducted. No associations were observed between fructose, sucrose, sugary food consumption and combined incidence of adiposity-related cancers or the examined site-specific cancers. While total consumption of sugary beverages was not associated with site-specific cancer risk, higher intakes of fruit juice were associated with 58% increased prostate cancer risk(HR:1.58;95%CI:1.04-2.41) in multivariable-adjusted models. In exploratory stratified analyses, higher sugary beverage intakes increased overall adiposity-related cancer risk by 59% in participants with excessive central adiposity(HR:1.59;95%CI:1.01-2.50)(p-trend=0.057). In this cohort of American adults, higher sugary beverage consumption was associated with increased cancer risk among participants with central adiposity. These analyses suggest that avoiding sugary beverages represents a simple dietary modification that may be used as an effective cancer control strategy. Copyright ©2018

Oil spill risk assessment : relative impact indices by oil type and location

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

French-McCay, D.; Beegle-Krause, C.J.; Rowe, J.; Rodriguez, W.; Schmidt Etkin, D.

2009-01-01

The aim of the study was to inform policies related to resource allocation for oil spill prevention, preparedness and response activities in Washington State. Oil spill reports and impact modelling studies were evaluated in order to determine major risk consequence factors including spill volume, location, timing, toxicity, persistence, and expected frequency of spills by sector. The Washington Compensation Schedule pre-assessment screening and oil spill compensation schedule regulations (WCS) designed to consider the sensitivity of oiled areas as well as the relative density and seasonal distributions of sensitive biota. Spill incidents were assigned per-gallon impact scores based on geographic location, oil type, and season. The WCS qualitative rating system was used to assess the potential impacts of spills in different geographic systems. Geographic zones were based on geography, circulation of currents, climate, and the WCS sub-regions in estuarine and marine areas on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Oil types included crude, heavy, and light oils; gasoline; jet fuel; and non-petroleum oils. A habitat index was calculated to represent existing stream conditions. It was concluded that the relative impact risk model is a reliable method for characterizing impacts based on spill volume, oil effects, and vulnerability rankings. 25 refs., 20 tabs., 3 figs

Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

2017-09-01

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

2016-04-01

Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Longitudinal Evaluation of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool and Nurses' Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Eun Young; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) is relatively new in Korea, and it has not been fully evaluated. This study revealed that the JHFRAT had good predictive validity throughout the hospitalization period. However, 2 items (fall history and elimination patterns) on the tool were not determinants of falls in this population. Interestingly, the nurses indicated those 2 items were the most difficult items to assess and needed further training to develop the assessment skills.

The association between statin use and risk of age-related macular degeneration

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Le; Wang, Yafeng; Du, Junhui; Wang, Mingxu; Zhang, Rui; Fu, Yihao

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between statin use and the risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). A systematic search of the PubMed, EMBASE and ISI web of science databases was used to identify eligible published literatures without language restrictions up to April 2015. Summary relative ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using a fixed-effect or random-effects model. A total of 14 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. No significant association was observed between statin use and the risk of any AMD (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.74–1.15); and stratified analysis showed that statins had a significantly different effects on early and late stages of AMD. For early AMD, statin use significantly reduced the risk approximately 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.66–0.99). At the late stage, we observed a significant protective association of statin use with exudative AMD (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80–0.99), in contrast with the absent association between statins and geographic atrophy (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77–1.56). These results demonstrated that statin use was protective for early and exudative AMD. Additional large prospective cohort studies and RCTs are required to determine the potential effect of statins on AMD prevention. PMID:26658620

Risk-informed decision-making related to the on-line maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, Marko

2011-01-01

On-line maintenance (OLM) represents the term, which includes testing and maintenance that is performed when the main generator of the nuclear power plant is connected to the grid. OLM on one side helps to decrease the number of activities, which would be performed during the scheduled outage, but on the other side it may contribute to a different level of risk, if the activity is performed when the plant is operating. If the risk of OLM during the power operation is much larger than the risk of similar activity performed during the shutdown the OLM may not be the desired strategy. Additionally, if the risk of OLM during the power operation is not larger than the risk of similar activity performed during the shutdown, the OLM would be the preferred strategy. The objective of the paper is to show risk evaluations of selected OLM activities of selected real plants and to examine if the current practices are suitable for the new nuclear power plants. The results of risk evaluations of OLM and their comparison show that the criteria or guidelines developed for existing plants are not completely suitable for new plants. The new power plants with expected lower risk measures, which can be lower for more than couple of orders of magnitude compared to existing plants, would be able to deal with OLM in plant configurations which would increase the risk for orders of magnitude, but would still be acceptable in terms of risk, if the existing criteria or guidelines are used. Results suggest that the risk guidelines for the OLM should be updated for their use in the case of new nuclear power plants.

Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

2018-04-01

The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

Roadway related tort liability and risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

This workbook provide government employees background information related to tort liability and risk management. Past experience with lawsuits against government entities are summarized. The reasons for the lawsuits and results are analyzed. The obje...

The Association between the Lipids Levels in Blood and Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yafeng Wang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Lipid metabolism may be involved in the pathogenic mechanism of age-related macular degeneration (AMD. However, conflicting results have been reported in the associations of AMD with blood lipids. We performed a meta-analysis including a total of 19 studies to evaluate associations between blood lipids and this disease. The result reported that the high level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C obtained with an increment of 1 mmol/L could result in a significantly increase in the AMD risk of approximately 18% (relative risk (RR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.01 to 1.35; I2 = 53.8%; p = 0.007. High levels of total cholesterol (TC, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and triglycerides (TG were significantly associated with a decreased risk of AMD (RRs ranging from 0.92 to 0.95; all p < 0.05. The stratified analysis based on AMD subtypes showed that these blood lipids were only significantly associated with the risk of early AMD (all p < 0.05. The association between the blood lipids and AMD risk did not differ substantially based on the other characteristics of the participants. A high HDL-C level was associated with an increased AMD risk, whereas participants with high TC, LDL-C, and TG concentrations may show a decreased risk for this disease. Further well-designed large studies are warranted to confirm the conclusions.

Acceptability of mobile health interventions to reduce inactivity-related health risk in central Pennsylvania adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Hsiang Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Insufficient physical activity and excessive sedentary behavior elevate health risk. Mobile applications (apps provide one mode for delivering interventions to modify these behaviors and reduce health risk. The purpose of this study was to characterize the need for and acceptability of health behavior interventions among rural adults and evaluate the interest in and the value of app-based interventions in this population. Central Pennsylvania adults with smartphones (N = 258 completed a brief web survey in October–November 2012. Most adults report one or both inactivity-related behavioral risk factors, would use a free app to modify those risk behaviors, and would pay a small amount for that app. Low-cost, efficacious apps to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior should be promoted in public health practice. User experience should be at the forefront of this process to increase value and minimize burden in the service of long-term engagement, behavior change, and health risk reduction.

Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

2015-05-01

Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

Impacts, Perceptions and Management of Climate-Related Risks to Cage Aquaculture in the Reservoirs of Northern Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebel, Louis; Lebel, Phimphakan; Lebel, Boripat

2016-12-01

Weather is suspected to influence fish growth and survival, and be a factor in mass mortality events in cage aquaculture in reservoirs. The purpose of this study was to identify the important climate-related risks faced by cage aquaculture farms; evaluate how these risks were currently being managed; and explore how farmers might adapt to the effects of climate change. Fish farmers were interviewed across the northern region of Thailand to get information on impacts, perceptions and practices. Drought or low water levels, heat waves, cold spells and periods with dense cloud cover, each caused significant financial losses. Perceptions of climate-related risks were consistent with experienced impacts. Risks are primarily managed in the short-term with techniques like aeration and reducing feed. In the mid-term farmers adjust stocking calendars, take financial measures and seek new information. Farmers also emphasize the importance of maintaining good relations with other stakeholders and reservoir management. Larger farms placed greater importance on risk management than small farms, even though types and levels of risk perceived were very similar. Most fish farms were managed by men alone, or men and women working together. Gender differences in risk perception were not detected, but women judged a few risk management practices as more important than men. Fish farmers perceived that climate is changing, but their perceptions were not strongly associated with recently having suffered impacts from extreme weather. The findings of this study provide important inputs to improving risk management under current and future climate.

Excess relative risk of solid cancer mortality after prolonged exposure to naturally occurring high background radiation in Yangjiang, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun Quanfu; Tao Zufan [Ministry of Health, Beijing (China). Lab. of Industrial Hygiene; Akiba, Suminori (and others)

2000-10-01

A study was made on cancer mortality in the high-background radiation areas of Yangjiang, China. Based on hamlet-specific environmental doses and sex- and age-specific occupancy factors, cumulative doses were calculated for each subject. In this article, we describe how the indirect estimation was made on individual dose and the methodology used to estimate radiation risk. Then, assuming a linear dose response relationship and using cancer mortality data for the period 1979-1995, we estimate the excess relative risk per Sievert for solid cancer to be -0.11 (95% CI, -0.67, 0.69). Also, we estimate the excess relative risks of four leading cancers in the study areas, i.e., cancers of the liver, nasopharynx, lung and stomach. In addition, we evaluate the effects of possible bias on our risk estimation. (author)

Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

1987-01-01

From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weir, Scott M.; Suski, Jamie G.; Salice, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

2010-12-15

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

2016-01-01

The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-09-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

Risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Eugenia Nano

2013-04-01

Full Text Available PURPOSES: To assess the risk factors of age-related macular degeneration in Argentina using a case-control study. METHODS: Surveys were used for subjects' antioxidant intake, age/gender, race, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes (and type of treatment, smoking, sunlight exposure, red meat consumption, fish consumption, presence of age-related macular degeneration and family history of age-related macular degeneration. Main effects models for logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression were used to analyze the results. RESULTS: There were 175 cases and 175 controls with a mean age of 75.4 years and 75.5 years, respectively, of whom 236 (67.4% were female. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration, 159 (45.4% had age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 154 (44.0% in their right eyes, and 138 (39.4% in both eyes. Of the cases with age-related macular degeneration in their left eyes, 47.8% had the dry type, 40.3% had the wet type, and the type was unknown for 11.9%. The comparable figures for right eyes were: 51.9%, 34.4%, and 13.7%, respectively. The main effects model was dominated by higher sunlight exposure (OR [odds ratio]: 3.3 and a family history of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 4.3. Other factors included hypertension (OR: 2.1, smoking (OR: 2.2, and being of the Mestizo race, which lowered the risk of age-related macular degeneration (OR: 0.40. Red meat/fish consumption, body mass index, and iris color did not have an effect. Higher age was associated with progression to more severe age-related macular degeneration. CONCLUSION: Sunlight exposure, family history of age-related macular degeneration, and an older age were the significant risk factors. There may be other variables, as the risk was not explained very well by the existing factors. A larger sample may produce different and better results.

Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

2014-01-01

We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benedetta Persechino

2013-06-01

Conclusion: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

2013-02-01

A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

1986-05-01

The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Plasma free amino acid profiles evaluate risk of metabolic syndrome, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population

OpenAIRE

Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, MH; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi- Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko

2017-01-01

Background Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. Methods We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association wit...

Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

Science.gov (United States)

... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

Urbanization and traffic related exposures as risk factors for Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2006-01-01

to nearest major road had no significant effect. CONCLUSIONS: The cause(s) or exposure(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk were closer related to the degree of urbanization than to the geographical distance to nearest major road. Traffic related exposures might thus be less......BACKGROUND: Urban birth or upbringing increase schizophrenia risk. Though unknown, the causes of these urban-rural differences have been hypothesized to include, e.g., infections, diet, toxic exposures, social class, or an artefact due to selective migration. METHODS: We investigated the hypothesis...... that traffic related exposures affect schizophrenia risk and that this potential effect is responsible for the urban-rural differences. The geographical distance from place of residence to nearest major road was used as a proxy variable for traffic related exposures. We used a large population-based sample...

Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

African Journals Online (AJOL)

On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

2013-01-01

A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond the contract: managing risk in supply chain relations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekker, H.C.; Sakaguchi, J.; Kawai, T.

2013-01-01

As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms' use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain

Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, G.

2012-04-01

The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

Helicobacter pylori-related chronic gastritis as a risk factor for colonic neoplasms.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Izumi; Kato, Jun; Tamai, Hideyuki; Iguchi, Mikitaka; Maekita, Takao; Yoshimura, Noriko; Ichinose, Masao

2014-02-14

To summarize the current views and insights on associations between Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-related chronic gastritis and colorectal neoplasm, we reviewed recent studies to clarify whether H. pylori infection/H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is associated with an elevated risk of colorectal neoplasm. Recent studies based on large databases with careful control for confounding variables have clearly demonstrated an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm associated with H. pylori infection. The correlation between H. pylori-related chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) and colorectal neoplasm has only been examined in a limited number of studies. A recent large study using a national histopathological database, and our study based on the stage of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis as determined by serum levels of H. pylori antibody titer and pepsinogen, indicated that H. pylori-related CAG confers an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm, and more extensive atrophic gastritis will probably be associated with even higher risk of neoplasm. In addition, our study suggested that the activity of H. pylori-related chronic gastritis is correlated with colorectal neoplasm risk. H. pylori-related chronic gastritis could be involved in an increased risk of colorectal neoplasm that appears to be enhanced by the progression of gastric atrophy and the presence of active inflammation.

Reactor siting risk comparisons related to recommendations of NUREG-0625

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barsell, A.W.; Dombek, F.S.; Orvis, D.D.

1980-11-01

This document evaluates how implementing the remote siting recommendations for nuclear reactors (NUREG-0625) made by the Siting Policy Task Force of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) can reduce potential public risk. The document analyzes how population density affects site-specific risk for both light water reactors (LWRs) and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors

Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L

2011-01-01

This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes.

Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

2015-01-01

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

Science.gov (United States)

Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

2017-06-01

The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

Science.gov (United States)

López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

2013-04-01

Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

Health risks from dioxin and related compounds: evaluation of the EPA reassessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on EPA's Exposure and Human Health Reassessment of TCDD and Related Compounds, National Research Council

Although the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency presented a comprehensive review of the scientific literature in its 2003 draft reassessment of the risks of dioxin, the agency did not sufficiently quantify...

Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

Science.gov (United States)

Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

2011-01-01

Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

2000-01-01

In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); White, Lori D. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kim, Andrea S. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Sen, Banalata [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Wilson, Vickie S. [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Keshava, Channa; Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Ovacik, Meric A.; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Androulakis, Ioannis P. [National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Bioinformatics Center, Environmental Bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center (ebCTC), Rutgers University and University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States); Gaido, Kevin W. [Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD 20855 (United States)

2013-09-15

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals

HIV-related sexual risk behavior among African American adolescent girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Carla Kmett; Walsh, Kate; McCauley, Jenna; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Brown, Jennifer L; Sales, Jessica M; Rose, Eve; Wingood, Gina M; Diclemente, Ralph J

2014-05-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful statistical tool that can be used to enhance understanding of how various patterns of combined sexual behavior risk factors may confer differential levels of HIV infection risk and to identify subtypes among African American adolescent girls. Data for this analysis is derived from baseline assessments completed prior to randomization in an HIV prevention trial. Participants were African American girls (n=701) aged 14-20 years presenting to sexual health clinics. Girls completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview, which assessed a range of variables regarding sexual history and current and past sexual behavior. Two latent classes were identified with the probability statistics for the two groups in this model being 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. In the final multivariate model, class 1 (the "higher risk" group; n=331) was distinguished by a higher likelihood of >5 lifetime sexual partners, having sex while high on alcohol/drugs, less frequent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), when compared with class 2 (the "lower risk" group; n=370). The derived model correctly classified 85.3% of participants into the two groups and accounted for 71% of the variance in the latent HIV-related sexual behavior risk variable. The higher risk class also had worse scores on all hypothesized correlates (e.g., self-esteem, history of sexual assault or physical abuse) relative to the lower risk class. Sexual health clinics represent a unique point of access for HIV-related sexual risk behavior intervention delivery by capitalizing on contact with adolescent girls when they present for services. Four empirically supported risk factors differentiated higher versus lower HIV risk. Replication of these findings is warranted and may offer an empirical basis for parsimonious screening recommendations for girls presenting for sexual healthcare services.

Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G

2011-02-01

To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for prevention of GA and for clinical assessment of GA risk in early AMD patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

Civil engineering airman at increased risk for injuries and injury-related musculoskeletal disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Timothy S; Wells, Timothy S

2011-03-01

With the advent of electronic records, the opportunity to conduct research on workplace-related injuries and musculoskeletal disorders has increased dramatically. The purpose of this study was to examine the United States Air Force Civil Engineering career field to determine if they are negatively impacted by their work environment. Specifically, the objective of this study was to determine if enlisted Civil Engineering Airmen (n = 25,385) were at increased risk for injury or injury-related musculoskeletal disorders compared to enlisted Information Management/Communications Airmen (n = 28,947). Using an historical prospective design, electronic data were assembled and analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards modeling. Models were stratified by gender and adjusted for race/ethnicity, marital status, birth year, and deployment status. Male Civil Engineers were observed to be at greater risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.54-2.26) and injuries (HR = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.48-2.11), while female Civil Engineers were more than double the risk for both inpatient injury-related musculoskeletal disorders (HR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.28-3.73) and injuries (HR = 2.22; 95% CI = 1.27-3.88) compared to Information Management/Communications Airmen. Although analyses do not allow exploration of specific causes, they highlight the utility of using electronic data to identify occupations for further evaluation. Based on these results, additional resources were allocated to survey Civil Engineers on their physical work demands and job requirements to identify key problem areas for further study and mitigation. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Incidence and risk factors of infections complications related to implantable venous-access ports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shim, Ji Sue; Seo, Tae Seok; Song, Myung Gyu; Cha, In Ho; Kim, Jun Suk; Choi, Chul Won; Seo, Jae Hong; Oh, Sang Cheul [Korea University Guro Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors of infections associated with implantable venous access ports (IVAPs.) From August 2003 through November 2011, 1747 IVAPs were placed in our interventional radiology suite. One hundred forty four IVAPs were inserted in patients with hematologic malignancy and 1603 IVAPs in patients with solid tumors. Among them, 40 ports (23 women and 17 men; mean age, 57.1 years; range, 13-83) were removed to treat port-related infections. We evaluated the incidence of port-related infection, patient characteristics, bacteriologic data, and patient progress. Univariable analyses (t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for IVAP related infection. Overall, 40 (2.3%) of 1747 ports were removed for symptoms of infection with an incidence rate of 0.067 events/1000 catheter-days. According to the univariable study, the incidences of infection were seemingly higher in the patients who received the procedure during inpatient treatment (p = 0.016), the patients with hematologic malignancy (p = 0.041), and the patients receiving palliative chemotherapy (p = 0.022). From the multiple binary logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies and those receiving palliative chemotherapy were 7.769 (p = 0.001) and 4.863 (p = 0.003), respectively. Microorganisms were isolated from 26 (65%) blood samples, and two of the most causative organisms were found to be Staphylococcus (n = 10) and Candida species (n = 7). The underlying hematologic malignancy and the state of receiving palliative chemotherapy were the independent risk factors of IVAP-related infection.

Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

Concept analysis of risk in relation to coronary heart disease among Filipino-Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalusung-Angosta, Alona

2010-01-01

To analyze the concept of risk in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) among Filipino-Americans (FAs) and provide a new definition of risk. Published literature. This concept analysis provided a new meaning of risk in relation to CHD among FAs and shed light on further understanding of risk. Risk has been laced with negativity in health care, but based on the current literature, risk can be conceptualized in a positive perspective, especially in the area of chronic health disease such as CHD. However, further research is needed in the conceptualization of risk related to CHD for consistency, adequacy, and meaning. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Relating metal bioavailability to risk assessment for aquatic species: Daliao River watershed, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Shuping; Zhang, Ying; Masunaga, Shigeki; Zhou, Siyun; Naito, Wataru

2014-01-01

The spatial distribution of metal bioavailability (Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb) was first evaluated within the waters of Daliao River watershed, using the diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) and chemical equilibrium models. To assess potential risks associated with metal bioavailability, site-specific 95% protection levels (HC5), risk characterizations ratios (RCR) and ratios of DGT-labile/HC5 were derived, using species sensitivity distribution (SSD). The highest bioavailability values for metals were recorded in the main channel of the Daliao River, followed by the Taizi River. Dynamic concentrations predicted by WHAM 7.0 and NICA-Donnan for Cu and Zn agreed well with DGT results. The estuary of the Daliao River was found to have the highest risks related to Ni, Cu, and Zn. The number of sites at risk increased when considering the total toxicity of Ni, Cu, and Zn. - Highlights: • Spatial variation in metal bioavailability within Daliao River watershed was studied. • WHAM 7.0 and NICA-Donnan examined the differences in predicting metal speciation. • Bioavailability values of metals were highest in main channel of the Daliao River. • Site-specific 95% protection levels (HC5)/risk variations were assessed using SSD. • Maximum risks from Ni, Cu, and Zn occurred in the estuary of the Daliao River. - The highest bioavailability values and the highest risks of metals were found in the estuary of the Daliao River

Methodological and Design Considerations in Evaluating the Impact of Prevention Programs on Violence and Related Health Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Massetti, Greta M; Simon, Thomas R; Smith, Deborah Gorman

2016-10-01

Drawing on research that has identified specific predictors and trajectories of risk for violence and related negative outcomes, a multitude of small- and large-scale preventive interventions for specific risk behaviors have been developed, implemented, and evaluated. One of the principal challenges of these approaches is that a number of separate problem-specific programs targeting different risk areas have emerged. However, as many negative health behaviors such as substance abuse and violence share a multitude of risk factors, many programs target identical risk factors. There are opportunities to understand whether evidence-based programs can be leveraged for potential effects across a spectrum of outcomes and over time. Some recent work has documented longitudinal effects of evidence-based interventions on generalized outcomes. This work has potential for advancing our understanding of the effectiveness of promising and evidence-based prevention strategies. However, conducting longitudinal follow-up of established interventions presents a number of methodological and design challenges. To answer some of these questions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a panel of multidisciplinary experts to discuss opportunities to take advantage of evaluations of early prevention programs and evaluating multiple long-term outcomes. This special section of the journal Prevention Science includes a series of papers that begin to address the relevant considerations for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research. This collection of papers is intended to inform our understanding of the challenges and strategies for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research that could be used to drive future research endeavors.